Given the unprecedented fall-out from last Thursday, which, I will now refer to as “SNB DAY”, I wanted to talk about Forex Brokers in the EDUCATION section of this week’s blog.
As a consequence, for this week only I have made the decision to open up the PREMIUM SERVICE version of the WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU to all readers.

<strong> </strong>
<h3 style="text-align: center;"><strong>THE PREMIUM SERVICE
</strong><strong>(The Home of Single-Lot $$$$ Trading)</strong></h3>
<strong>DATE: 18.01.2015
REFERENCE: #43
</strong><strong>BLOG: THE PREMIUM SERVICE</strong>

<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"> </span></strong>
<ol>
	<li><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"> INTRODUCTION:</span></strong></li>
</ol>
Last week, in the blog I used “Holy Mother of God”… this week it’s “Jesus Mary and Joseph”.

What a week…

Where do I start?

My first thoughts were: –

Did SNB (Jordan) have any prior idea of the effect his announcement would have on the markets?

Did Jordan know that his actions would make the history books?

Did he think or realize that companies would go bust, people would be out a job and millions of $$ would be lost from balance sheets and broker accounts?

&nbsp;

Those are the $64,000 questions… and my answer to the questions is probably not to the extent that things played out. Believe me… there is more fallout to come as a result of SNB Day.

I was awake and at my desk when the news broke. It was an experience to say the least; I had LIMIT ORDERS that were triggered with three brokers. Suffice to say my experiences with brokers were not consistent.

I took a hit on my FXCM account and in comparison to many traders I will NOT be presented with an invoice for money owed. They froze out their CHF trades for over an hour and then what appeared to have happened is that they opened up at the bottom price and filled trades based on this. I have now learned that many traders lost substantial sums of money.

The other two brokers behaved themselves very well indeed, all things considered and losses were minimalized. In fact their systems unlike FXCM’s worked extremely well.

Moving on….

We dust ourselves off prepare to deal with any Forex broker fallout and get set for the next week. What a week its going to be, with the highlight obviously being Draghi’s biggest (I always seem to say every meeting is his biggest) test to date on the Thursday 22<sup>nd</sup>.

We also have a BOC interest rate decision, a BOJ Policy statement and several other front line news events but these seem to fade into the background somewhat as all eyes will be on Draghi.

I am certain that he will not disappoint but the ECB does have a TALK TALK habit and no action history.

If Draghi does NOT deliver we will have another SNB day….

To a large extent QE is priced in, it's the details that we need, and, I think that the volatility will be greater is he kicks another can down the road and delays action. As I say, it’s all going to be in details.

If he does not meet market expectations….or delays….it will be volatile.

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<ol start="2">
	<li><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"> WHAT’S ON MY MIND: -
THE FUNDAMENTAL TRADERS OVERVIEW:</span></strong></li>
</ol>
<em>
</em><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">WILL THE ECB ANNOUNCE SUFFICIENT QE TO SATIFY THE MARKETS?</span></strong>

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Let me just set the scene here…

If I take a step back to, I think it was last May, when at the ECB Press Conference the EUR/USD hit 1.3993. I remember that day well as if it were only yesterday, yer man Mario Draghi said that the ECB would look at and consider purchasing sovereign bonds and whoopsie…. the EUR/USD decline towards parity started.

It has not been easy going for weakening the EUR/USD. It certainly wasn’t at first, and poor Mario Draghi has had to fight all the way and try to flex his muscles to do his job. We must of course remember that he is answerable to Berlin before and above anything else and the Germans are hard people to win over - just ask the Greeks, Cypriots, Portuguese, Spanish, Italians and the Irish.

In the early months following Draghi’s May announcement there were battles in the press with the following three flutes, which is the best way that I can describe these opponents to most things that Draghi says.

Jens Weidmann – Deutsche Bundesbank, President
Wolfgang Shauble - German Finance Minister
Ewald Notwony – Austrian Central Bank, President

Every time that Draghi would say something progressive that might help DEFLATION or UNEMPLOYMENT in the EUROZONE one of the three flutes highlighted above would roll out an objection based on legality, numbers are wrong, we don't need that QE sh**e, we have austerity…the fact that austerity didn’t work is totally irrelevant.

With a stroke of luck, after a few of months over the summer last year, there was the will he, won’t he, when will he, is he bullsh***ing, along with opposition voices mainly from within Germany, Mario Draghi got his break.

Then we had Central Bank divergence… a stroke of luck for Mario Draghi. Janet Yellen announced a change in FED monetary policy as the last chunk of QE tapering from the FED was removed. The FED had moved to an increasing interest rate monetary policy following the end of QE, We still haven’t seen any increases yet, but we are expecting something later this year.

The FED and the ECB were now on divergent policies…one dovish and one hawkish. The result, the USD strengthened and the EUR weakened……

In the couple of months following, Mario Draghi once again talked about options but did nothing. Parallel to this the economic data emanating from the EUROZONE was still poor… German, Spanish, French, Italian and Spanish data all bounced on the bottom and failed to impress. DEFALTION started to be used in conversation, more and more around the corridors in Brussels sound bytes were focused on talking down DEFLATION, nevertheless it culminated with Draghi openly saying that sovereign bond buying was being looked at.

The EUR/USD dropped again on that news but bounced as the markets were looking at Draghi and the ECB as similar to “The Boy who cried Wolf”.

Last Thursday, the SNB removed the link between the EUR and the CHF by removing the 1.2000 (peg/ floor limit) that kept exchange rates at a level. The turmoil in the markets, well, its history book stuff in my opinion. However, the EUR once again weakened and has fallen as low as 1.1460.

Since May last year, 1.3993 to 1.1460 on Friday just passed…2,533 pips of a fall.

So as usual; here are a few questions to mull over: -
<ol>
	<li>What do you reckon Draghi’s goal exchange rate with the EUR/USD was, when he initially talked about QE up at 1.3993…lets call it 1.4000?</li>
</ol>
<ol start="2">
	<li>How many of the 2,500 pips or so fall in the EUR/USD exchange rate from 1.4000 to 1.1460 is actually attributable to ECB monetary policy?</li>
	<li>I am willing to bet that the Germans who foot the bill (pay the invoice), for QE will be looking at 2,500 pips so far, saying lets do QE on the cheap we are almost at 1.1000…
Remember we are dealing with politicians. QE is bad for Merkel regarding popularity and votes in Germany. Politicians will only want to do as little as possible…..What do you think?</li>
	<li>At the outset of the QE announcement from the ECB the volume quoted to be required by the markets was €1,000 billion. There has been so much talk already that the proposed limit will be €500 billion and not the €1,000 billion that the markets are expecting and coupled with the fact that the SNB action has already blasted a further 300 pips or so lower off the EUR/USD exchange rate, is it not possible that politicians who require popularity to survive would take the line of least resistance and maybe take the risk of trying to satisfy the markets with the lower figure of €500 billion…. What do you think?</li>
</ol>
What happens if only €500 billion is quoted in the Press Conference on Thursday?

Because QE is priced in to a large extent with current EUR/USD exchange rate, in my opinion, anything below €1,000 billion will be seen as a fudge by the markets. If the rhetoric from Draghi that supports whatever amount of QE that is proposed is wishy-washy, and if QE is further delayed, I feel that there could be the mother of all bounces / squeezes in the EUR/USD back towards at least 1.2000. The 4<sup>th</sup> January market opening gap fill at 1.2000 looms, in my opinion, it is like a tractor beam from Star Trek if Draghi fails to get the markets on board.

At the front of mind, I always feel that the “collective” known as the ECB are more dysfunctional than Washington D.C. when it comes to policy and doing what is right for the people that they represent

Markets just cannot cope with vagueness or uncertainty…these are two traits that politicians the world over thrive upon. The ECB are top of the charts on being cheap and delaying implementation. They are also brilliant at talking, but not actually doing anything. Sadly the ECB is NOT despite its belief independent…. It is funded mainly by and managed by Berlin and Frankfurt…politicians are in control.

As I said last week in the blog, Draghi is the fall guy here.

If Germany says only €500 billion and the EUR/USD squeezes like crazy back 500 pips or so, the politicians will blame Draghi. Politicians are Teflon coated and only point fingers of blame. They are not interested in taking blame, merely passing it on. All things said, I strongly suspect QE on the cheap this Thursday and I think that the markets will NOT like it.

I want to be wrong and I hope that I am…. but the ECB history of fudging leads me to believe that they will fall short, for whatever reason.

Be ready to buy the EUR…. (I really do hope that I am wrong for the European peoples sake).

&nbsp;

&nbsp;
<ol start="3">
	<li><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:
</span></strong></li>
</ol>
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">SUMMARY OF PERFORMANCE:</span></strong>

&nbsp;

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">3.1 OVERVIEW:</span>

For new readers who may not be aware, I refer to the PREMIUM SERVICE quite a lot in this blog and for more details about what it is, and, how much it costs, you will need to go the welcome page of <a href="http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> At the top of the page there are three drop down menus: PREMIUM SERVICE, PROMOTIONS (if available), SIGN-UP and DISCLAIMER. Further details and how to join are all contained there. You will need at PayPal account to subscribe.

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">3.2 PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIPTION COSTS:</span>

Full details regarding the PREMIUM SERVICE can be found on my website <a href="http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>

On the welcome page there are a series of TABS at the top of the page that provide a summary of what the PREMIUM SERVICE is about and what you receive for your subscription.

THE 2015 SUSCRIPTION BREAKDOWN IS AS FOLLOWS: -

10 weeks - $200.00
20 weeks - $350.00
40 weeks - $500.00

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">3.3 TRADING REVIEW OF ACTIVITY and SUMMARY OF PERFORMANCE:</span>

This week two PREMIUM SERVICE trades were affected by the SNB news. This has dented the trading performance and I am showing a negative for the end of the first full trading week. Although it is somewhat misleading to call it a full week, after the SNB news things practically came to a halt as I dealt with issues surrounding my aligned brokers, in particular FXCM. Apart from FXCM all appears to be well. I have spoken with them and all accounts should receive official communications from the brokers confirming all is well after SNB Day.

This is important to me as many of my PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers also have broker accounts signed up from my website banners and together we aligned with the broker and together we carry greater influence should problems occur.

I spent a great deal of time on Thursday on administrative duties, not the usual kind but administrative all the same and Friday, more administration and a funeral to attend. Hence, it was not a full week, nor was last week by any stretch of the imagination a normal week.

From my personal motivation perspective the FXCM issue hit me quite hard and now it’s all about shaking it out, dusting myself down and getting back in the saddle again.

I start again tonight at the open, with chart reviews and will get back into full swing tomorrow. Given the news on the horizon, I will be picky on what I decide to trade.

The usual summary charts detailing the week and year to date performances, however, are below for reference, even though they do not make great reading, but it is real and honest reporting of the facts:

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">3.3.1. – THE PREMIUM SERVICE PROFIT/LOSS RATIOS:
<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/PREM-SERVICE-PROFIT-LOSS-RATIO-18012015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-5129" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/PREM-SERVICE-PROFIT-LOSS-RATIO-18012015.png" alt="PREM SERVICE PROFIT-LOSS RATIO 18012015" width="417" height="583" /></a>
</span>

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<span style="text-decoration: underline;">3.3.2. – THE PREMIUM SERVICE RISK/REWARD ANALYSIS:

</span>

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/PS-RISK-REWARD-ANALYSIS-18012015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-5130" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/PS-RISK-REWARD-ANALYSIS-18012015.png" alt="PS RISK-REWARD ANALYSIS 18012015" width="427" height="535" /></a>

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">3.3.3. – THE PREMIUM SERVICE TRADE SUMMARY MONTH &amp; YTD:</span>

&nbsp;

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/PREM-SERV-PROFITS1-18012015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-5131" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/PREM-SERV-PROFITS1-18012015.png" alt="PREM SERV PROFITS1 18012015" width="452" height="425" /></a>

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<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/PREM-SERVICE-PROFITS2-18012015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-5132" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/PREM-SERVICE-PROFITS2-18012015.png" alt="PREM SERVICE PROFITS2 18012015" width="455" height="427" /></a>

&nbsp;

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">3.4 THE PREMIUM SERVICE – 2015 PROMOTION:</span>

&nbsp;
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>THE PREMIUM SERVICE
</strong><strong>(The Home of Single-Lot Trading)</strong></p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>FOR JANUARY and FEBRUARY 2015
</strong><strong>ONLY
</strong><strong>THE PREMIUM SERVICE
</strong><strong>Offers a
</strong><strong>“BONUS WEEKS”
</strong><strong>LIMITED TIME PROMOTION:</strong></p>
(PLEASE NOTE: The CWMFX broker banner will be visible on my website by the middle of this week. I apologize for the delay. If you want to open an account with CWMFX please contact me direct via the email address at the end of the blog. If you DO NOT open an account via me, you WILL NOT qualify for the limited time PROMOTION)

&nbsp;

Keeping your PREMIUM SERVICE trades separate from your own trades can give you an instant direct performance comparison.

If you open a separate account with any of my trading partners / preferred brokers CWMFX, AvaTrade or Blackwell Global, you will be eligible for “BONUS WEEKS” to be added to your subscription.

This is in addition to the account-opening bonuses for new clients offered by AvaTrade, (see their website www.avatrade.com for full details), or, Blackwell Global (contact me directly for bonus details)

The promotion also applies to CWMFX accounts as well. They offer very tight rate spreads as an alternative to account opening bonuses offered by AvaTrade and Blackwell Global.

If you intend to be or are a longer-term position style trader only looking at your computer once a day tight rate spreads may not be as important to you and as such, the AvaTrade or Blackwell Global bonus may be more appealing to you.

Conversely, if you intend to be a more active trader the CWMFX tight rate spreads will be of more interest.

The choice is yours.

This promotion with my associated trading partners will expire of Saturday 28th

February 2015…it is really very limited: -

&nbsp;
<ol>
	<li>Subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE:</li>
</ol>
You will need to go to the welcome page of my website <a href="http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>

Click on the sign-up tab at the top of the page.

&nbsp;

2015 PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION RATES

10 weeks = $200.00

20 weeks = $350.00

40 weeks = $500.00 (full year / annual subscription)

NOTE: I limit my trading during periods of thin liquidity such as Christmas / New Year and Late July / August summer vacation times.

Hence, 40 weeks is equal to an annual subscription.

&nbsp;
<ol start="2">
	<li>Open a LIVE account clicking on the “BANNER” of the broker of your choice on my website.</li>
</ol>
This will enable you to achieve a trading bonus direct from AvaTrade or BLACKWELL GLOBAL or opt for the tight rate spreads from CWMFX.

For Blackwell Global advise me of what you are doing and I will guide you through the process.

All the banners are on the welcome page of my website www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com

&nbsp;
<ol start="3">
	<li>PREMIUM SERVICE – BONUS WEEKS PROMOTION:</li>
</ol>
Once the LIVE trading account is confirmed and funded, I will extended

PREMIUM SERVICE subscription periods as follows after you have advised me what you have done via email at <a href="mailto:premiumservice@weeklyfxdrivethru.com">premiumservice@weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> : -

10-week subscriptions will receive a bonus of 5 weeks (15 weeks total)
Your subscription would be equivalent to $13.33 per week.

20-week subscriptions will receive a bonus of 10 weeks (30 weeks total)
Your subscription would be equivalent to $11.66 per week.

40-week subscriptions will receive a bonus of 20 weeks (60 weeks total)
Your subscription would be equivalent to $8.33 per week.

This promotion represents the best offer that I have participated in and has an unbelievable value. It is simply the best that I have ever promoted and is a great way to start trading in 2015.

It would hopefully be the start of a very profitable relationship together.

&nbsp;
<ol start="4">
	<li>PLEASE NOTE: - THE FOLLOWING CONDITIONS TO THE PROMOTION:</li>
</ol>
Only broker accounts opened via the banner on my website www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com are accepted for the PREMIUM SERVICE BONUS WEEKS PROMOTION.

For the “BONUS WEEKS PROMOTION” in subscription weeks to the

PREMIUM SERVICE to remain intact you must meet the AvaTrade, Blackwell Global or CWMFX requirements for operating your broker account. Should your account with AvaTrade, Blackwell Global or CWMFX cease to be valid and close the “BONUS WEEKS” segment of the PREMIUM SERVICE promotion will also be withdrawn.

This PREMIUM SERVICE “BONUS WEEKS PROMOTION” is only available with this offer and is 100% linked to the AvaTrade, Blackwell Global or CWMFX LIVE accounts being opened via the banners on the welcome page of my website www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com

&nbsp;
<ol start="4">
	<li><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBER EXCLUSIVE CONTENT:</span></strong></li>
</ol>
(Section 4 is exclusive PREMIUM SERVICE content only available to PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers)

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">4.1 EDUCATION:

</span>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>FOREX BROKERS -
We need them, however, we have to choose them carefully</strong></p>
Given the effects of SNB Day, and all the horror stories that are now surfacing from customers of ALPARI, EXCEL MARKETS, ACM, FXOPEN, INVESTORS GROUP, INTERACTIVE BROKERS, LCG, SWISSQUOTE, ROBOFOREX, and FXCM, it really was a catastrophe waiting in the wings; some have already stated that it was bound to happen eventually. The market was so long EUR/CHF it was an incredible one-sided market. Traders believing that the SNB would continue to support the 1.2000 peg for ever, literally got taken to the cleaners when it was uncoupled.

Last night, I spoke with one of my peers who told me of instances where traders literally took oversized long positions on the EUR/CHF to make 5 or 10 pips a time on the promise of SNB support. They were extremely over-leveraged and taking on so much risk that when the SNB action took place their broker account with say $10,000 on them were immediately wiped out because they did NOT use RISK or MONEY MANGEMENT nor did they think of proper POSITION SIZING. The end result: I was advised of invoices being raised to the tune of $70,000 and more to cover the fill. Traders who did not have their accounts wiped out have lost thousands of $$$ regardless of the broker used.

We all need brokers…some may say they are a necessary evil, but we need them.

I have researched and tried many brokers over the 8 years that I have been trading. I had a great relationship with my account manager at FXCM, and that counts as a positive, but the way that they as a company handled SNB Day was my worst broker experience ever. I have had some experiences on broken promises and outright lies deceit and dishonesty from brokers in the past, but the SNB fallout has opened my eyes even further.

When choosing a broker we look for regulations and affiliations and try to take in all the small print that we mostly all hate to examine. I wonder how many of us have actually read the small print. Brokers should be regulated across as many zones in the world that is humanly possible. Brokers that failed on SNB Day had this, they had all the regulatory bodies behind them regarding clients monies etc.

I did not have accounts with any of the brokers listed above, except FXCM, but most of them probably ticked all the boxes you as a client needed to know about before opening an account. Many of them have been saved, but some will still NOT trade CHF pairs. It looks like ALPARI and EXCEL MARKETS are the only brokers to have gone under so far.

With regards to FXCM, let me tell you, this brokerage must have owned half the Amazon rainforest given the volume of paper, red tape and regulation I went through to open my account, yet they failed to deliver on SNB Day and have struggled to keep their doors open. The 4<sup>th</sup> largest broker in the world was what I read recently about FXCM; so what went wrong?

Trying to keep this simple the market was so heavily traded in one direction, and the volumes were just so huge. The market collapsed when the decoupling happened.

Just think about one factor that has not come to light yet. We have heard about the private FX traders in their thousands and how they were affected. I have not read much about the institutions yet. The Forex market is a 5 (five) trillion dollars a day market, five trillion dollars is not trading done by private traders i.e. you and me. There is much more fallout to come from the institutions such as the banks.

Simply put, what happened on SNB Day was a one-off, probably never to be repeated event ever in our lifetimes.

So, given that I say in my title of this article “chose carefully”, yet the three brokers who are in trouble, or closed for business, ticked all the boxes, what else could you have done? Or, basically, if you were with these brokers was it just a case of bad luck?

When I have gone through the process of establishing a relationship with a Forex broker, I thought that I was being as thorough as possible, FXCM passed this test when I was selecting brokers to align with.

As a minimum, let me review the data that you should be looking for regarding your broker when making your choice.

Your broker should meet the following requirements: -

Be licensed and regulated to meet all regulatory obligations.
You should be able to see country by country the various regulatory authorities listed where approval and standards are met.
24x7 support via telephone and “Live Chat”.
Dedicated Account Managers.

Your broker should have the following information available: -

Risk Disclaimers.
Privacy Policies.
Complaints Procedures.
<span style="line-height: 1.5;">Policies on how they handle Conflict of Interest and Execution of trade policies.
</span><span style="line-height: 1.5;">Details of an Investor Compensation Fund.</span>

Finally we have a crunch test. Looking back on SNB Day, there was slippage, there were reports of poor fills all over the Forex market

Open up a demo account and test the brokers platform for accessibility during periods of high volume such as, Non-Farm Payrolls, ECB Press Conferences etc.

Slippage / poor fills are an important and part of our everyday trading that we have to deal with. The brokers bombard you with small print on their contracts; every “get out” clause in the book is there for you add your signature to.

Therefore in my eyes, we should take them for the equivalent of a test drive. Choosing a broker should involve a period of practical experience as well as ensuring that they meet an administrative functionality.

There may NOT be a repeat of SNB Day, and quite frankly it was so extreme I guess that we will not see it repeated but we should go as far as we can to help indemnify ourselves as best we can.

I hope that this short article helps in some way.

&nbsp;

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">4.2 THE PREMIUM SERVICE - EXISTING LIVE TRADES:</span>

Below is the current spread sheet showing the existing live trades. Both of these trades are hedged from 100 pips. The hedges were placed SNB Day.

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/PS-LIVE-TRADES-18012015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-5139" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/PS-LIVE-TRADES-18012015.png" alt="PS LIVE TRADES 18012015" width="712" height="477" /></a>

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">4.3 THE PREMIUM SERVICE - TRADES THAT ARE ON MY RADAR:</span>

The current list of LIMIT ORDER trades are highlighted on the spreadsheet below.

I would like to add that given the extreme nervousness in the market and the continued uncertainty surrounding the fallout from SNB Day, I have not added any charts or additional trades this weekend. I will be reviewing after the European open tomorrow (Monday).

I believe that this is the prudent approach given the fact that the uncertainty in the Forex markets provides volatility that, quite frankly is not tradable at times. I would rather wait until the dust settles.

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/PS-TRADES-ON-RADAR-18012015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-5140" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/PS-TRADES-ON-RADAR-18012015.png" alt="PS TRADES ON RADAR 18012015" width="710" height="410" /></a>

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">4.4 MAJOR TRADING PAIRS WITH LONGER-TERM TRENDS MATCHING:</span>

The following currency pairs have Short Term (DAILY), Medium Term (WEEKLY) and Long Term (MONTHLY) charts all trending in the same direction.

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/PREM-SERV-TRENDING-PAIRS-18012015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-5138" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/PREM-SERV-TRENDING-PAIRS-18012015.png" alt="PREM SERV TRENDING PAIRS 18012015" width="390" height="551" /></a>

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">4.5 THE KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS</span><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">:
</span></strong>(This content is now for PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers only, it allows me to refer to existing and future set-ups that form part of the PREMIUM SERVICE subscriber deal)<strong> </strong>

<strong>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.1560.</strong> In total there was over a 500 pip range in the EUR/USD this past week and about a 350 pip drop overall. Obviously “SNB day” rocked the boat and sent this pair into a tailspin move lower. What next is the obvious question? Sticking my neck on the chopping block, I think we should see a period of consolidation ahead of the ECB Press Conference this Thursday. We saw a bottom on Friday at 1.1460. I think that this will be the support level; a break lower opens up a move to 1.1210. On the upside, I think that we could see bounces that will probably be sold into at 1.1650, 1.1720 and maybe even 1.1870, although the latter would, in my opinion, involve quite a short squeeze. DO NOT rule this out. The market is heavily short EUR at the moment, and so nervous anything could happen. There are lots of brokers liquidating positions at the moment to balance their books…never say never to anything at the moment.

<strong>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.5131</strong>. Quite a turbulent week for the cable but the end of week close was only 20 pips lower than the previous week. In 2014, I had no real luck trading this pair; I think at one time I called it “Flattering to Deceive”. My views have not altered. All week, I believed with the EUR/GBP cross-rate effect in play the cable would stay supported as the EUR/GBP fell in value. So many times it looked like the GBP/USD was going to break substantially higher, but it never really got going. I hate to say common sense, but common sense tells me that as the EUR falls, the EUR/GBP also falls and by virtue of these moves the GBP/USD should remain elevated. I know, the EUR/USD dropped 400 pips or so and cable never moved so it remained elevated by comparison. However, in my opinion, in the past the bounce in cable has been dominant and I expected a test of 1.5300; it never materialized.
Looking forward, 1.5030 is definitely the near death experience support and resistance for the next few days should be capped around 1.5270.

<strong>AUD/USD: Closing Price 0.8219</strong>. Aussie employment numbers helped this pair during last week. We are range bound and I can say and I am tired of trying to make money on this pair at the moment. The cross-rate effects of the EUR/AUD, GBP/AUD and AUD/CAD are playing havoc with the AUD/USD moves. Looking forward, support is at 0.8180, then down to 0.8120. Resistance is 0.8300. I have a limit order at 0.8380 patiently waiting to short.<strong> </strong>

<strong>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.7770</strong>. Like the AUD/USD a very range bound pair. 0.7620 to 0.7920 is the range. I have my limit order at 0.7920 to short and quite frankly this pair has become the new “Loonie” to trade. We have been in the range that I have identified for about three or four months now…painful.

<strong>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.1976.</strong> On SNB day I was “wussied” out of a trade that cost quite a bit of $$$. My long limit entry was triggered and I did not move my stop lower to cope with the volatility at the time. I took a big 85-pip loss, only watch my next level of support hold and then watch the “Loonie” bounce up like a pop-tart and take out my initial profit target all inside two hours…. God…I’m that good!! It was very frustrating indeed, and that is the polite version of how I feel. I had soooooooooo many other things on my mind at the time this was happening so I am trying not to beat myself up too much.
Looking forward, resistance for me lies at 1.2075, with support back at 1.1940.

<strong>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.8579</strong>. What on earth do I say about the CHF? Personally, I am expecting a bounce in the CHF pairs, as I do believe that Jordan fucked up, I think he had NO FRIGGIN IDEA what he was taking on and now the SNB will be involved in further currency manipulation to help manage the Swiss economy moving forward. I do believe though, that measures will be on hold until after the ECB announcement on <span style="line-height: 1.5;">QE this week. </span><span style="line-height: 1.5;">In my opinion, the CHF will be a sell currency moving forward. i.e. long USD/CHF, EUR/CHF and GBP/CHF to name but three pairs…….but NOT yet it’s too risky.</span><span style="line-height: 1.5;">Quite frankly, stay away for a few more days. Lets get all the fallout, all the data, and all the thoughts of the central bankers on the table and then decide what to do. I know that there are thousands of traders trying to pick bottoms with the CHF pairs. You do what you think you need to do, me…I am staying away for a little while until I can see some clarity on the future policy.</span>

<strong>USD/JPY: Closing Price 117.42. </strong> The USD/JPY strengthened by about 100 yen in the week. I promised Yang, one of my subscribers that I would start trading this pair and the JPY crosses last week, in fact I have been promising for weeks. That plan kind of got placed on hold once again. We are range bound with this pair; 115.50 is the support and 118.00 the resistance.

&nbsp;
<ol start="5">
	<li><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"> THE WEEK AHEAD: -
WHAT AM I THINKING &amp; WHAT AM I LOOKING AT?</span></strong></li>
</ol>
<span style="text-decoration: underline;">5.1 SUBSCRIBING TO THE “FREE VERSION” OF THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU:</span>

If you like what you have almost completed reading and want to have THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU delivered direct to your email inbox next week, here is what you do: -

Go to my website: - <a href="http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>

On the right hand side of the welcome page under my bio “about me” there is a blue box titled SUBSCRIBE TO FREE NEWSLETTER, click on profile and add your email address. It is as simple and straightforward as that.

I do NOT sell your email data to anyone…do not worry.

&nbsp;

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">5.2 MAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:</span>

SUNDAY: N/A.

MONDAY: NZD – NZIER Business Confidence.
MONDAY: CNY – GDP.

TUESDAY: EUR – German ZEW Economic Sentiment.
TUESDAY: NZD – CPi.

WEDNESDAY: JPY – Monetary Policy Statement and BOJ Press Conference.
WEDNESDAY: GBP – Unemployment Data.
WEDNESDAY: CAD – BOC Monetary Policy Statement / Interest Rate.
WEDNESDAY: CAD – BOC Press Conference.

THURSDAY: EUR – ECB Interest Rate s and Press Conference.
THURSDAY: CNY – HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMi.

FRIDAY: EUR – French and German Flash Manufacturing PMi
FRIDAY: GBP – Retail Sales.
FRIDAY: CAD – Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales.

&nbsp;

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">5.3 FINAL THOUGHTS / CLOSING COMMENTS:</span>

I doubt as Forex traders that we will ever witness events like SNB Day again in our lifetimes. It was a history book entry event. As traders it is all about how we react after that turmoil. I know that many of you lost money on CHF trades last Thursday.

It is all about drawing a line under it…. and moving on. DO NOT revenge trade that is NOT the answer. It is especially NOT the answer given the news event on the horizon.

The ECB dominates the economic calendar this week. I have documented my thoughts in this blog. I may be wrong, I may be right, it is just my opinion and quite frankly no one knows what is going to happen this Thursday. The one thing that I can probably get 100% correct is that it will be volatile. It may actually be a day NOT TO TRADE.

There is a Forex market everyday. There are usually one or two strong moves everyday. Why risk this Thursday when volatility will be extreme?

I know that many of you will trade no matter what I write. All I ask is that you consider the risks involved with trading anything with EUR attached to it.

Before you enter a trade work out the risk, price it in $$$. Place your stop accordingly. PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers have a full library of information on RISK MANAGEMENT, RISK TOLERANCES and POSITION SIZING etc. available for reference 24x7.

This Thursday, in my opinion, will not be as catastrophic as SNB Day, but rest assured it will be volatile.

Take care.

Scott Pickering
The Pip Accumulator
Sunday January 18<sup>th</sup> 2015

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