Good Day,

Firstly, I welcome the new subscribers from over the past couple of days.

I just responded to an email from Raul (Brasil), over reducing risk even when I am within (well within in many trades) my RISK TOLERANCE / PARAMETERS. This weeks economic calendar is just crazy. The RBA, lots of PMi data, ECB Press Conference and the U.S. Jobs report to name but a few. Over the next 48 hours, I will be positioning myself as best I can to only have trades in play that are either not affected by the news, i.e non specific cross-rates, or  trades that I fundamentally want to keep live at the moment but I will be moves up stops or protecting some profits. 90% of the time trades in profit I will exit. I can always re-enter again should the situation drive me.

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<span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>OVERVIEW:</strong></span>

A great deal can happen this week in currencies and it will mostly be dominated by the usual suspects: USD/JPY and EUR/USD.

The EUR/USD will have the volatility but it also dangerous to trade. My bias is still bearish as we broke lower out of an ascending wedge on the DAILY chart. We are shortly about to test the 200 DAY SMA and it looks like horizontal support at 1.3670. If we break higher above these levels, we set up a great short opportunity as it heads towards 1.3725-50. I will be looking to enter short up at these levels. With month, quarter and half year ends today, do not rule our U.S. 10 Year yields maybe rising. This would support USD strength. Over the past while yields have been falling and this had kept the USD under control and weak.

Watch the USD/JPY, we are below the 200DAY SMA and we are at the 78% Fib at 101.25. If we fall through here we look towards the absolutely critical support at 100.75. If this level caves in later this week look for a potential sub 100.00 move towards 98.50 maybe even 97.00.

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<span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>TRADES:</strong></span>

I am not looking to enter fresh trades but two are on my radar at the moment.

USD/CHF - Short at 0.8910 back towards 0.8850, with a 30 pip stop.

USD/CAD- Short at 1.0710 back towards 1.0650,  with a 30 pip stop. (but be careful CAD GDP today)

EUR/USD - Short from 1.3725 stop at 1.3800 looking for a move back below 1.3450 longer-term.

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<span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>RBA TONIGHT:</strong></span>

I will look to add to existing shorts in AUD/USD and NZD/USD if the RBA is not trying to talk down the AUD exchange rate and the AUD leaps towards 0.9460 or beyond 0.9525. If Stevens does talk down the AUD exchange rate and will add to trades on pullbacks. These may just be additions for 48 hours or so but I feel that they could be profitable trades.

Remember in the blog over the weekend, I mentioned that Glenn Stevens RBA governor was talking down the AUD/USD when it was at 0,9000. It now sits around 0.9400, I suspect that he is not a happy puppy / bunny.

<span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>I have my plan!!</strong></span>

Take care,

Scott