<p style="text-align: left;" align="center"><b><span style="text-decoration: underline;">1. INTRODUCTION:</span></b></p>
From a personal perspective, that was a great week of forex trading, with more than +500 pips profit during the week.

I am however, a little concerned that some of the currency moves seem to be a little extreme. In particular last Wednesday was extreme. BOE Governor Carney presenting the quarterly BOE Inflation Report, basically kept his forward guidance in place and the GBP rallied like crazy across the board. Wednesday evening the Australian Unemployment data was poor and the AUD weakened. On Wednesday alone the moves in the GBP/AUD and GBP/NZD were terrific. The GBP/AUD nearly +500 pips on the day. I know the GBP/AUD is an exotic commodity cross-rate and moves will be volatile. At the same time the EUR/AUD moved up over +180 pips on the back of AUD Unemployment Data.

These moves, plus a few more factors are telling me that the markets are twitchy, and maybe over reacting.  I write this in the full knowledge that the equity markets are grinding higher, and in the full knowledge that the S&amp;P and Nasdaq are at 14 year highs. I will go deeper into my thoughts on this subject later in the blog.

One piece of news that really pissed me off was the ECB talking about “Negative Deposit Rates”.

At the last ECB Press Conference - ECB President Mario Draghi basically talked about Eurozone economic improvements and how things were starting to come together, cautious optimism was given as guidance. No new initiatives were discussed because of the improvements seen.

Then within 7 days….it’s confirmed that the ECB had in fact discussed Negative Deposit Rates for member state banks depositing money with the ECB. This is mega news, market moving and important to investors to have knowledge of when making business decisions.

It just shows you that it is all a game. I had written many times about Draghi’s body language at the Press Conferences being poor and that he is hiding something. He is very uncomfortable at times. I have said that his testicles must be wired to a switch at the Bundesbank in Frankfurt and Angela Merkel’s office in Berlin, maybe I am not so far off the truth. He is very well managed, I have no doubt of this fact at all.

At times, I doubt the economic data validity released from China. The Eurozone is catching China up. We know that most of the Eurozone politicians and bureaucrats will save their own backs and be very economical with the truth at times regarding Eurozone matters.

On the basis that “Negative Deposit Rates” have in the past been dismissed as nonsense and were said to be no way near the discussion table and the fact that Draghi had the opportunity to control a discussion about the subject and didn’t, is in my opinion very poor leadership on his part. This is 100% why I think he is controlled, maybe not by gadgets wiring to his testicles, but controlled he is.

Other news was that Janet Yellen completed her first “grilling” on the hill. I thought she gained more and more confidence as the testimony went on and to be frank, the U.S. politicians wouldn’t know how to ask a question if their lives depended upon it. They still haven’t learnt to ask a concise question. They use up most of their allotted time with waffle and assorted bulls**t. Nevertheless, I thought she came out on top and any uncertainty that the markets had on tapering were well and truly put to bed in my opinion.

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<b><span style="text-decoration: underline;">2. THE VIEW FROM MY TRADING DESK:</span></b><b style="line-height: 1.5em;"> </b>
<p align="center"><b>IT’S STILL ALL ABOUT FEAR AND GREED…EVEN MORE SO NOW:</b><b> </b></p>
I think that the markets are now very overbought and market participants are now getting twitchy. Sentiment is starting to change. Last year, for the equities markets it was all about “Buy the Dip”, a simple trading approach, because the FED was behind the markets with easing (Quantitative Easing), through it’s bond buying programme.

GREED has been in pole position for quite sometime because the FED was market supportive. The “Buy on the Dip” mentality is starting to be less talked about even though equities grind higher and the S&amp;P and Nasdaq closed last week at 14 year highs. FED monetary policy has changed and the effects of tapering is a whole new ball game. The smart guys are selling into these rallies in my opinion.

We saw a 7% pullback over a week ago, and we were led to believe this was a buying opportunity, maybe it was. I just do not buy it. I have said it before and I say it again….the dis-connect / correlations are still off…these are clues not to be ignored. The fact we are at record highs just tells me that it has to stop sooner rather than later. It is how the markets react to a change in sentiment that very important. A GREED based market can switch to a market dictated by FEAR very quickly.

Everyday I go through the same daily routines with my chart analysis. The following factors are playing heavy in my decision making process. I believe the moves ahead will be very, very big. I do not need to pick a top, I just want a good chunk of the available $$$ in the middle of oncoming trades. I definitely do not want to pick the market bottom either. That can be very costly and a dangerous sport: -<b><span style="text-decoration: underline;">
</span></b>
<ul>
	<li>Gold is appreciating in value and has moved above the psychological $1,300 barrier. However, in my opinion it doesn’t get bullish in my eyes until it breaks above about $1,380. We have DEFLATION. So the recent run of buying Gold is fear? A flight to safety?</li>
	<li>The Nikkei is selling off one day then bouncing back the next. It has bounced back off a lower trend line support.</li>
	<li>Oil is struggling with $100.00.</li>
	<li>Copper has gone really quiet.</li>
	<li>The JPY pairs are not moving in sync anymore with equities. The best example is yesterday’s close (Friday). The S&amp;P and Nasdaq are at 14 year highs yet the USD/JPY has been hovering around a critical support level of 101.50 for the past 24-36 hours. It should be back at 110.00 given the circumstances.</li>
	<li>The AUD/USD and NZD/USD whilst holding up really well are NOT breaking out. In fact, I am ready to short both of them because in my opinion I have confidence in the fact that the equities markets are going to roll over.</li>
	<li>S&amp;P at 1800 becomes a critical support level. Below 1725 it is game on.</li>
</ul>
My feelings are well known. I am a USD bull and have been for about the past 5/6 months. The market dis-connect has been in play for some time. Inter-market correlations are bo****ksed. My lead currency indicators have been giving clues (AUD/USD &amp; USD/CAD) for months. The commodity currencies lead the way.

This is why I am so anxious to get long on the EUR/AUD, EUR/NZD, EUR/CAD, GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD and GBP/CAD. I chickened out on my original set of FUNDAMENTAL trades. I allowed myself to be influenced by other market participants. I am actively looking for the correct levels to enter the six currency trade pairs to the long side.

When the sell-off starts the unwinding effect of these pairs will be incredibly strong.

This is when FEAR takes over in the mindset of traders and it will only intensify as the momentum gathers pace.

It just takes one negative spark of the right intensity to set this i.e: the sell off in motion. It may come from the emerging markets but my favourite would be either the Eurozone or China.

The snap back could happen at anytime.

<b><span style="text-decoration: underline;">3. LOOKING FORWARD…THE KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS:</span></b>

<b>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3692.</b>  About a 60 pip move to the upside during the week but even with a lot of bullishness around - the upside has been capped at 1.3715 (a 127.6% Fibonacci extension).  However, I do not think that the bears get back in full control unless we break through support at 1.3610.
The EUR/USD Daily chart below shows the key trading points.

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/EURUSD-DAILY-15.02.14.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-3231" alt="EURUSD DAILY 15.02.14" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/EURUSD-DAILY-15.02.14-1024x522.png" width="1024" height="522" /></a>

<b>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.6746.  </b>The cable is in breakout territory; the EUR moved upwards about 50 pips and the GBP/USD move higher in the same time period was almost three times greater. The next big resistance lies at 1.6780, which by coincidence with the EUR/USD is also a 127.6% Fibonacci extension. In my blog post outlining my thoughts for 2014, I talked about the “dis-connect” across the various markets. I suggested that I thought that the GBP would start to act more independently of the EUR. Here is the first case example. I can see cable rising beyond 1.6780 towards 1.7000 at a time when I think upwards moves in the EUR will be capped. Watch the EUR/GBP price action, I think 0.8000 cents is on. Support for the GBP/USD is at 1.6650.

<b>AUD/USD: Closing Price 0.9031</b>.  I think that the AUD/USD is a great short somewhere between 0.9100 and 0.9200. I think that you can start building positions just below 0.9100. Unless it strides higher to short it I am not interested. I am looking forward to reading the RBA monetary policy meeting minutes this week to see what clues if any as to help with my trade set-up. Fundamentally, I see this pair around 0.8000 to 0.8500. For now I think we are range bound 0.9000 to 0.9100.

<b>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8365</b>.  The most annoying pair in the forex market as far as I am concerned. Like the AUD/USD I think that we are range bound, stuck between 0.8300 and 0.8400.

<b>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.0977.</b>  I have been all over this pair like a rash in the past week. I firmly believe that with a bit of USD strength coming through the markets this pair will fly through 1.1250 heading towards 1.1520. For now though we are having to suffer spikes and pullbacks. The range is 1.0940 to 1.1025. The 12 hour USD/CAD chart below shows the key levels to watch out for.

<b> <a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/USDCAD-12-HOUR-15.02.2014.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-3232" alt="USDCAD 12 HOUR 15.02.2014" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/USDCAD-12-HOUR-15.02.2014-1024x522.png" width="1024" height="522" /></a></b>

<b>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.8923</b>.  I was really excited about trading this pair recently. I was so excited I was relieved to exit my trade on a spike to resistance at 0.9040. Since that day we have fallen. I think a fall back to 0.8850 is a gift to pick and enter long, but I just think that we will continue in this very tight range that we are in until the EUR/USD break out in one direction or the other. The range for now that I am looking at is 0.8900 to 0.8950.

<b>USD/JPY: Closing Price 101.78. </b> This pair is under real pressure to fall through support at 101.50. It has been at the precipice more than once so if it does not fall through the next time it tests support maybe we are destined to see a quite strong bounce towards 105.00 once again. Who knows? I have found the USD/JPY difficult to follow of late. One thing that I do know however is that equities are at multi year highs and the USD/JPY is falling. There is something wrong with this picture. The critical support at 101.50 must hold otherwise it will be sub 100.00 not too far after. Resistance is good at 102.60.

<b><span style="text-decoration: underline;"> </span></b>

<b><span style="text-decoration: underline;">4. MAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:</span></b>

SUNDAY: NZD – Retail Sales.

MONDAY: AUD – Monetary Policy Minutes.

TUESDAY: GBP - CPi.

WEDNESDAY: GBP – Unemployment Rates.
WEDNESDAY: USD – FOMC meeting Minutes.
WEDNESDAY: CNY – Manufacturing PMi

THURSDAY: EUR – German and French PMI.
THURSDAY: USD – Janet Yellen testifies.

FRIDAY: GBP – Retail Sales.
FRIDAY: CAD – Core CPi &amp; Core Retail Sales.

<b><span style="text-decoration: underline;"> </span></b>

<b><span style="text-decoration: underline;">5. THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</span></b>

As there are always new readers of this blog each week, I thought that I should mention the subscriber based option of the WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU that has been in existence now since the beginning of 2014; THE PREMIUM SERVICE.

It is an honest blog containing trade set-ups, profitable and losing trades, my ideas and thoughts and it also has for an instant communication to subscribers a dedicated protected TWITTER feed. All trades (profitable and losing) are monitored and recorded within the secure section of the WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU website.
<p align="center"><b><span style="text-decoration: underline;">WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU:
</span></b>(helping you to trade more consistently) <b></b>

</p><p align="center"><b><span style="text-decoration: underline;">PREMIUM SERVICE   </span></b>

</p><p align="center">Are you a part-time forex trader?</p>
<p align="center">Are you a novice trader still coming to terms with the complexities of trading the forex market full-time?</p>
<p align="center">Do you feel a little overwhelmed with terminology, when to enter a trade, when to exit, what is being over-leveraged, what is effective risk / money management and what is a trading plan?</p>
<p align="center">The PREMIUM SERVICE may be an option worthy of serious consideration.</p>
<p align="center">The PREMIUM SERVICE is not a robot.</p>
<p align="center">The PREMIUM SERVICE it is not an automated system.</p>
<p align="center">The PREMIUM SERVICE is not an expensive fleecing series of daily financial updates, pages long that do not give you trading ideas or trade set-ups.</p>
&nbsp;
<p align="center"><b><span style="text-decoration: underline;">What is the PREMIUM SERVICE?</span></b></p>
&nbsp;

Firstly, the PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber only addition to The WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU. The WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU is a weekly blog that I started over two years ago. Its aim was to review my thoughts and ideas on the forex market. I then started to add trade set-ups and write about trades that would be on my mind if certain events took place.

I started to publish my future trade set-ups, which were predominantly profitable and as I approached my 100<sup>th</sup> blog, I decided that it was time to move to the next stage…. the PREMIUM SERVICE.

The PREMIUM SERVICE contains trade-set ups of my various styles of trades that I developed into a successful formula for trading the forex market with more profitable than losing trades.

As a subscriber to the PREMIUM SERVICE, you will receive all my suggested trades whether they are: - FLASH trades, RADAR trades or FUNDAMENTAL trades via an exclusive protected Twitter feed. I give you my thoughts on entry, exit, trade size and what type of lot to trade.

I do the risk assessment ahead of the trade. You decide whether you want to take the trade and what position size to take.

If you trade part-time: with the RADAR TRADE suggestions you simply load a limit order with your broker and the trade will enter and exit automatically, if you use the suggestions I provide, or you can chose your own exit strategy.

(Full details and definitions of FLASH, RADAR and FUNDAMENTAL trades are inside the secure members area of the PREMIUM SERVICE)
<p align="center"><b> </b></p>
<p align="center"><b>What are the current trading success rates with the PREMIUM SERVICE?</b></p>
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From my blogs published in December and January the following is an accurate trade by trade set up that was either “Blogged” or “Tweeted” via my twitter account @pipaccumulator (If you want more details please contact me directly via email - my address is at the foot of this document). I have my own history from the past 6 /7 years but it is displayed as below or in excel spread sheets as seen in my blog posts in the WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU <a href="http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> and below.

<b><span style="text-decoration: underline;">December 2013 and January 2014: -</span></b>
<p align="center"><b><span style="text-decoration: underline;">FLASH TRADES:</span></b></p>
<p style="text-align: center;">TOTAL TRADES: 28
TOTAL PIPS NET PROFIT: 871</p>
<p style="text-align: center;">MICRO LOT TRADERS: 1 x micro lot traded your risk = 28 x $0.10 = $2.80
Your reward was 871 x $0.10 = <b><span style="text-decoration: underline;">$87.10</span></b></p>
<p style="text-align: center;" align="center">MINI LOT TRADERS: 1 x mini lot traded your risk = 28 x $1.00 = $28.00
Your reward was 871 x $1.00 = <b><span style="text-decoration: underline;">$871.00</span></b></p>
<p align="center">STANDARD LOT TRADERS: 1 x standard lot traded your risk = 28 x $10.00
Your reward was 871 x $10.00 = <b><span style="text-decoration: underline;">$8,710.00</span></b></p>
<p align="center"><b><span style="text-decoration: underline;"> </span></b></p>
<p align="center"><b><span style="text-decoration: underline;">RADAR TRADES:</span></b></p>
<p style="text-align: center;">TOTAL TRADES: 36
TOTAL PIPS NET PROFIT: 646</p>
<p align="center">MICRO LOT TRADERS: 1 x micro lot traded your risk = 36 x $0.10 = $3.60
Your reward was 646 x $0.10 = <b><span style="text-decoration: underline;">$64.60</span></b></p>
<p align="center">MINI LOT TRADERS: 1 x mini lot traded your risk = 36 x $1.00 = $36.00
Your reward was 646 x $1.00 = <b><span style="text-decoration: underline;">$646.00</span></b></p>
<p align="center">STANDARD LOT TRADERS: 1 x standard lot traded your risk = 36 x $360.00
Your reward was 646 x $10.00 = <b><span style="text-decoration: underline;">$6,460.00</span></b></p>
<p align="center"></p>
<p align="center"><b><span style="text-decoration: underline;">COMBINED RADAR &amp; FLASH TRADES:</span></b></p>
<p align="center"> TOTAL TRADES: 64
TOTAL PIPS NET PROFIT: 1,517</p>
<p align="center">MICRO LOT TRADERS: 1 x micro lot traded your risk = 64 x $0.10 = $6.40
Your reward was 1,517 x $0.10 = <b><span style="text-decoration: underline;">$151.70</span></b></p>
<p align="center">MINI LOT TRADERS: 1 x mini lot traded your risk = 64 x $1.00 = $64.00
Your reward was 1,517 x $1.00 = <b><span style="text-decoration: underline;">$1,517.00</span></b></p>
<p align="center">STANDARD LOT TRADERS: 1 x standard lot traded your risk = 64 x $640.00
Your reward was 1,517 x $10.00 = <b><span style="text-decoration: underline;">$15,710</span></b></p>
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If you go to <a href="http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> and check back over the past 8/9 posts you can see very clearly the growth week by week to give this total.

I am NOT saying that this can be expected every month because I am a cautious trader.

However, I do trade currencies to make money.

Whilst I like the idea of longer-term trading, if the market looks false to me I will cut profitable trades and bank money. I am not looking for the glory of three/four week trades to show I have nerves of steel to make +300 pips or so. If I can make 300 pips from three or four 24/48-hour trades instead, who cares? It’s all about banking profits and minimizing risk.

I will have a balance of intra-day, swing and long term trades. It is your choice to pick what you want to take and what to risk. I am a low-risk very conservative trader.

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<p align="center">FUNDAMENTALS MATTER TO ME</p>
<p align="center">I TRADE TO MAKE MONEY…NOT TO PICK TOPS OR BOTTOMS</p>
<p align="center">I TRADE LOW RISK</p>
<p align="center">I DO NOT CHASE MARKETS</p>
<p align="center">I LIKE THE TRADES TO COME TO ME</p>
<p align="center">I AM NOT A GREEDY TRADER</p>
<p align="center">I LIKE TO TRADE MOMENTUMS IN THE DIRECTION OF TRENDS</p>
<p align="center">I USE FIBONACCI LEVELS TO ENTER &amp; EXIT ON MANY TRADES</p>
<p align="center">PLUS</p>
<p align="center">MY TRADING STYLE IS MIXED EVEN WITH THE ABOVE KEY BASICS</p>
<p align="center">I USE THE PULLBACK STRATEGY TO ENTER AND I LIKE SWING AND LONGER-TERM TRADES (WHEN POSSIBLE)</p>
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The members area of the website contains not just the comprehensive trading history / journal of trades but it also contains as much support information as I can gather that is of use to help us all trade profitably. As time moves on, the support pages areas will increase so that it becomes a one-stop point of reference for all styles and types of traders regardless of experience.

I am hoping to have a chat room so that subscribers and myself can chat live about potential live trades. In addition, if the number of participants is economically viable, I will hold webinars on trading issues. Below is a list of questions so far that will either be addressed by webinar or by a future section within a blog post.
<p align="center"><b>Trade Plans and how to work with them
How to find a good broker to partner with</b>
<b>What trades for what broker
Micro, Mini or Standard lots
Placing Stops</b>
<b>Strategies on when to enter and exit trades</b>
<b>Risk Assessment</b>
<b>When to fade trades</b>
<b>How to cost average effectively</b>
<b>How to use Trade Zones effectively - Buy Zones and Sell zones</b>
<b>Working with Fibonacci levels</b>
<b>Basic Chart analysis</b></p>
The PREMIUM SERVICE will evolve as it moves forward. I have lots of ideas to integrate into this area, but I am also open to ideas from readers / followers and subscribers.

This is a very important step for me as well; I want the PREMIUM SERVICE to be different to other services currently available.

Whilst upon first look, it may appear that the Premium Service is directed solely at new traders, or those with intermediate skill levels. Please note this is not my intention. Trading can be lonely, and sometimes it is good to feel that you are part of a team. With this in mind, I am thinking that a “Chat Room” style area would be of benefit to all traders to share ideas and trade set-ups. Plus, whether you are a new trader or an experienced trader it is always good to have a library of information available close at hand.

What are the costs?

There will be 40 weekly blogs / issues per year. I will not write in the summer and over Christmas periods. There will be an unlimited amount of Twitter follow-ups to the exclusive subscribers on a Twitter secure feed during the week to review and act upon “FLASH, RADAR and FUNDAMENTAL trades” and issues emanating from previous blogs.
<p align="center"><b>There are three subscription options: </b></p>
<p align="center"><b>ANNUAL (40 WEEK) SUBSCRIPTION: $750.00 (this equates to $18.75 per week) </b></p>
<p align="center"><b>20 WEEKS SUBSCRIPTION: $450.00 (this equates to $22.50 per week)  </b></p>
<p align="center"><b>10 WEEKS SUBSCRIPTION: $250.00 (this equates to $25.00 per week) </b></p>
<p align="center"><b>(All Fees are quoted in USD
and
Please note: There are no refunds once a subscription is accepted)</b></p>
<b><span style="text-decoration: underline;">6. FINAL THOUGHTS:</span></b>

<b>THE PREMIUM SERVICE – (Twitter Feed)</b>

Firstly most of you do not avail of this facility, it is free and quite a lot goes on. To date over 300 tweets have been made. Many of them a multiples surrounding maybe just one piece of data but nevertheless, there is a lot going on.

I have decided to place a structure around the tweets that are made with immediate effect, they are:

Everyday before the North American equity markets open. There will be a tweet called “FIRST THOUGHTS”.

Mid morning in the U.S. session there will be a “MARKET UPDATE”

In the lunch period / afternoon session there will be a “FINAL THOUGHTS” tweet.

24 x 7 there will be “TRADE UPDATES” and “TRADE SET-UPS” relating to FLASH, RADAR and FUNDAMENTAL trades.

Finally, “NEWS FLASH” tweets, when applicable.

I hope that this format will be well received.

For those of you that still happy with just the weekly trade set-ups, there is absolutely no problem from my side. I know time differences play a part, but the “Twitter Feed” can offer an additional edge…..think about it.

Back to the markets, I expected consolidation last week. I suppose to some extent there was but there was a lot of volatility. This week I am expecting some movement as I believe that we are once again very close to the crossroads were sentiment changes.

As you know, the markets move on FEAR and GREED and I think FEAR is entering. If I am correct, that means volatility; be prepared.

With that in mind, always remember that there is a market everyday. You do not need to trade everyday to make your financial goals.

Good luck and trade within your TRADE PLAN guidelines and most importantly use sound MONEY MANAGEMENT SKILLS to control your risk.

&nbsp;

Scott Pickering
The Pip Accumulator
Saturday February 15th 2014

EMAIL / FOLLOW ME AT:
drivethru@weeklyfxdrivethru.com
Twitter: @pipaccumulator
<span style="line-height: 1.5em;">Google+/scottpickering
</span><span style="line-height: 1.5em;">StockTwits; thepipaccumulator</span>

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<p align="center"><b> </b></p>
<p align="center"><b> </b></p>
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<b><span style="text-decoration: underline;"> </span></b>

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