<b><span style="text-decoration: underline;">1. INTRODUCTION:</span></b>

Well, given the doom and gloom that accompanied the U.S. government lockdown, surprise, surprise, life still goes on. Under some pressure the latest S&amp;P technical support gave way last night (Tuesday) and we saw a lot of moving in the forex market. Primarily this volatility was seen through the USD/JPY with key support at 97.50 giving way.

This morning leading up to the ADP release, and, then the ECB Press Conference, I was experiencing internet connection issues so between the two data releases I acted with sense and closed everything.

At the beginning, I missed a little bit of the “toing and froing” from Draghi’s comments. At the same time, I watched several hundred dollars that I would have had, had I kept my cross-rate pairs open that would have been added to my broker account balance. But at the end of the day, I always think that it’s better to be cautious and bank profits. So I am now in $$$$ looking around.

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<b><span style="text-decoration: underline;">2. TRADES THAT I AM CURRENTLY "LIVE" WITH THAT I CATEGORISE: -</span></b>
<p align="center"><b><span style="text-decoration: underline;">MY LONG TERM TRADES:</span></b></p>
I have none at this time.

<b><span style="text-decoration: underline;">3. POTENTIAL TRADES ON MY RADAR:</span></b>

Basically, with the U.S. government shutdown looking like it is going to drag on for God knows how long, at the back of my mind I hear a voice speaking to me saying wait and see for a day or so. The big news events of this week have happened; The RBA, ADP Non-Farm, ECB rate decision and press conference. There is no U.S. government released Non-Farm payrolls this week, so I can take my time and research.

The usual suspects are attracting my interest and I think that purely by accident rather than design I may achieve better entry levels in some of my “Radar Trades” now that the dust has settled a little after Draghi left the building…so to speak. Of course, all the cross-rate pairs have moved upwards quite considerably in some cases.<b> </b>

<b>EUR/USD:</b>

The EUR/USD has been holding me back, as I have mentioned a few times recently. The trading range of 1.3450 to 1.3570 had been containing this pair for quite sometime, and, this was holding me back from trading the USD. This was what prompted me to look at the cross-rates. The pair probed minor stops above 1.3600 earlier this morning during Draghi’s press conference but at the time of writing this blog; it had pulled back to just under 1.3600. My gut feeling is that it will move higher towards 1.3800 in the coming sessions. My charts for the short, medium and longer terms are all green.

I am tempted to go long targeting 1.3800 but not until I see a confirmed breakout. On the other side of this trade, a failure at 1.3600 really sets up a great short back to 1.3450 and subsequently 1.3320.

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<b>GBP/USD:</b>

I am more interested in a short with this pair from around 1.6300 /1.6350 back to 1.5970. I may try to establish a short position over the next day or so. There will be fierce resistance around 1.6300 as there are major Fibonacci clusters in that price region.

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<b>USD/CAD:</b>

Looking for a long trade, but I want to see a pullback to hopefully below 1.0300, maybe 1.0260 to get a great entry position. Not sure if this will be possible.

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<b>EUR/AUD, GBP/AUD, EUR/NZD, GBP/NZD, EUR/CAD &amp; GBP/CAD:</b>

Having closed all of these earlier this morning, I am now looking for pullbacks to enter long. The great unwinding trade of mega proportions that I have blogged about recently is still “in the air” so I am keeping a close eye on all of these pairs.

Since I started looking about a week or so ago at these pairs, the vast majority of the trades I took made good profits. I want to re-establish positions as soon as I can.

The entry levels that I am looking at are as follows: -

EUR/AUD: 1.4400

GBP/AUD: 1.7200

EUR/NZD: 1.6400

GBP/NZD: 1.9500

EUR/CAD: 1.4000 – This pair is very bullish. I may have to chase!!

GBP/CAD: 1.6700 – This pair is very bullish. I may also have to chase!!

Please note with above cross-rate pairs only take very small positions with wider than usual stops. These are volatile pairs that move very fast and operate with light financial volume so they are very, very volatile. My usual approach is to trade a maximum of 20% of my usual trade size.

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<b><span style="text-decoration: underline;">4. FINAL THOUGHTS:</span></b>

As usual, trading with caution is recommended. Do not over-stretch your account and keep inside your trading plan limits.

Good luck and take care.

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Scott Pickering
The Pip Accumulator
Wednesday October 2nd 2013

FOLLOW ME AT:
Twitter: @pipaccumulator

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