<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>THE PREMIUM SERVICE
</strong><strong>The Home of Single-Lot Trading
www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</strong></p>
<strong>DATE: 03.05.2015
REFERENCE: #58
</strong><strong>BLOG: THE PREMIUM SERVICE</strong>

<strong><u>
</u></strong>
<ol>
	<li><strong> INTRODUCTION - MY OVERVIEW OF THE FOREX MARKET:</strong></li>
</ol>
<u>LOOKING BACKWARDS, FORWARDS &amp; SIDEWAYS (FOR GOOD MEASURE) AT THE FX MARKET:</u>

<u>1.1 - LOOKING BACKWARDS:</u>

What a hell of a ride last week was.

When I was involved in Sales Training, courses contained sections on what is the typical profile of a sales person. The typical profile of sales person would show that this person is emotionally driven and that salespeople feel and experience highs and lows on a very frequent basis. Depending upon the type of sales process, it can range from an extreme high to an extreme low in an hour! I felt like that last week. I try not to get emotional but it is very, very difficult at times not to go bananas, in response to a move that was unexpected and not explainable. Last week I was that person.

<u>FOMC RATE STATEMENT:</u>

On Wednesday last week, the FOMC released a much-anticipated update on how the FED views matters from an economic viewpoint. This was the day after an absolutely poor GDP print.

The U.S. data despite the U.S. gun-ho approach on all things USA (we are bigger and we are better and because we have booming voices we are correct so listen) has been weak of late. Let’s be honest here. The consumer is NOT buying and without consumer spending, I could not give a rats hairy a** about any data that is produced. If there is no spending, there is no growth no matter how loud your voices are.

Is it any wonder the FOMC are scared to increase rates, they have to because they said that they would, but I would say that Janet Yellen is not a happy bunny in the mornings when she pours out her cornflakes.

The FOMC statement was viewed as HAWKISH. Jesus, Mary and Joseph how and why? Basically, to cut a long story short, they did NOT rule out a June rate hike. Go figure. As far as I can see the FOMC / FED have been fairly consistent with comments if you ignore the underlings and concentrate on the decision makers. Nothing has materially changed. Yet the children on Wall Street that need their diapers changing as they have no control of anything unless the FED gives them a backstop from where to trade from, have repeatedly read FOMC statements DOVISH or HAWKISH on basically the same vocabulary. Is it any wonder these markets can drive you drink?

<u>RBNZ RATE STATEMENT:</u>

So my buddy Graeme Wheeler (Governor of the RBNZ) released the latest statement on all things New Zealand. Prior to the statement his sidekick, deputy governor English, had announced that things were in a bit of a fix and the RBNZ were no longer on a policy of increasing rates.

Since last Wednesday, the NZD has been under pressure heading lower. Basically, nothing new came out of the statement. Even when the NZD/USD was heading to 0.8000 the RBNZ had been saying it was overvalued. Other geopolitical events have made the RBNZ fall in line, otherwise they would be screwed. They have to enter the currency war regardless. Do not forget John Key, the NZ Prime Minister, has already said that he sees the NZD/USD trading at 0.6500.

The PREMIUM SERVICE is currently short the NZD/USD and, next week I am looking to provide subscribers with trade set-ups to enter long on the commodity cross-rates that affect the NZD currency.

<u>GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS:</u>
<ol>
	<li><u> GREECE:</u></li>
</ol>
It’s still going….

It looks like Varoufakis is being sidelined from negotiations. Being honest, there are so many damn deadlines and cash requirements to meet these deadlines that come and go that I do not know what to believe.

When a deal is made, or a default happens, that is when to get excited. For now, I think about it when I am trading, but for the moment it is not at the front of my mind.

In my opinion, the CONTAGION looms and the stakes are high.

The cultural differences are immense in the EUROZONE. I have written about this fact many times over the past two years, just check out previous EUROZONE related blogs (there are plenty of them) on my home page.

Debt forgiveness for GREECE and compensation for IRELAND, PORTUGAL etc. is the only way forward in my opinion. My views have not altered. This is the equivalent of a west-end farce played out in front of the world’s media and does nothing to promote the effectiveness of the EUROZONE, nor does it show the strength in leadership ability in any area. It is in fact quite simply, a sales training video on “How not to ………….” I have seen tens of these in my earlier years on the planet.

I still believe that this is going to eventually end in tears.
<ol start="2">
	<li><u> OIL - YEMEN – IRAN:</u></li>
</ol>
This is still ongoing, however, it is now page 7 news and not hitting the front pages anymore.

The IRAN nuclear issue picks up again this week as the negotiations on TRUST recommence. This should be fascinating to observe because neither side trusts each other.

From a trading perspective, OIL supplies are not threatened. OIL prices are rising because we have so much of it stored all over the world….go figure? I had an economics education, waste of bloody time that was… supply and demand my a**e.
<ol start="3">
	<li><u> UK GENERAL ELECTION:</u></li>
</ol>
It should all kick-off next week. The 7<sup>th</sup> May is the UK election date. The GBP/USD started to implode late Thursday into Friday last week and I think that more of the same will happen.

A trader friend of my last weekend asked me did I see the GBP/USD at 1.6000 prior to the election. I answered by saying that I thought a small spike might be seen from the price of 1.5200 at that time to about 1.5300. We went to 1.5500 before turning back lower towards 1.5100. I said that I felt that all the pressure would be to the downside. 1.5500 was a shock to me. But, last week there were some crazy moves across many pairs.

Ed Miliband (Labour Party Leader) may have shot himself in the foot by ruling out a coalition with the Scottish Nationalist Party (SNP) if there was a minority government and his party was the biggest and given first go at forming a government.

This has created even more uncertainty. Next week this will be a fascinating story to watch unfold, I will be glued overnight to BBC World News in Canada watching.

<u>1.2 - LOOKING FORWARDS:</u>

<u>MAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:</u>

<u>(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to </u><a href="http://www.forexfactory.com">www.forexfactory.com</a><u> and </u><a href="http://www.tradingeconomics.com">www.tradingeconomics.com</a><u> for more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).
</u>
SUNDAY: AUD – Building Approvals.
SUNDAY: CNY – HSBC Final Manufacturing PMi.

MONDAY: AUD – Trade Balance.

TUESDAY: AUD – RBA Rate Statement.
TUESDAY: NZD – Dairy Auction Prices
TUESDAY: NZD – Employment Data.
TUESDAY: AUD – Retail Sales.

WEDNESDAY: USD – ADP Non-Farm Employment Change.
WEDNESDAY: CAD – IVEY PMi.
WEDNESDAY: AUD – Employment Data.

THURSDAY: GBP – General Elections.
THURSDAY: AUD – RBA Monetary Policy Statement.

FRIDAY: USD – Non-Farm Employment Change.
FRIDAY: CAD – Employment Data.

&nbsp;

<u>1.3 - LOOKING SIDEWAYS (FOR GOOD MEASURE):
</u>

<u>FOREX MARKET CONDITIONS:</u>

At long last after a week of extreme moves we are now moving more freely and instead of being range bound we are now exposing bullish and bearish patterns / chart set-ups and potentially some bigger moves on the horizon.

Do not get carried away yet. I think that next week providing that we do not see a GREECE settlement we should see (except for GBP related pairs) a consolidation of Friday’s moves before the decision is the USD (DXY) going higher or lower.

If the currency wars are to be believed; the USD (DXY) should be heading back towards 100.00 eventually. The pleasing thing about Friday’s move in currencies was that across the board it was a USD move.
<ol start="2">
	<li><strong><u> WHAT’S ON MY MIND: -
THE FUNDAMENTAL TRADERS OVERVIEW:</u></strong><strong> </strong></li>
</ol>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>IS IT TOO EARLY TO WRITE OFF THE USD?</strong></p>
Without doubt, this has been a strange year trading Forex.

So far we have accommodated: -
<ul>
	<li>Thomas Jordan (SNB Governor) having his day in the sun by removing the EUR/CHF peg and allowing the CHF to free float.</li>
	<li>Janet Yellen has been struggling with language in the FOMC statements over the FED rate hike that she has committed to in 2015. She has been, meeting by meeting, trying to keep the markets as stable as possible, by updating language definitions in FED policy statements.</li>
	<li>The BOJ has been dithering over more Quantitative Easing (QE) or not?</li>
	<li>The ECB has introduced Quantitative Easing (QE) and looks to have accommodative / supportive policies in place for at least another 12-18 months.</li>
</ul>
The price of OIL tanked lower (sorry about that pun).

GOLD has been spiking up then spiking down. In a world of zero inflation why the yellow metal is not sitting at $700 really does surprise me.

Central Banks have intensified the “Race to the bottom”… currency wars are alive and well and fully functional. The FED and possibly the BOE are the HAWKS, with the BOJ, ECB, RBA, BOC and SNB the DOVES, with the RBNZ now joining the DOVES as well.

We have had so many short squeezes this year I have lost count. The squeezes are persistent and in two or three stages, relentless and 100% efficient at wiping out longs and shorts from the market.

Is it any wonder that there has been what is often called a flight to safety with traders / institutions / corporate funds / pensions buying the USD?

On the USD dollar index (DXY) Monthly chart below, you can see the USD move higher in recent months. It was powerful and unrelenting. The target of 100.00 was too much for the markets not to miss. It should come as no surprise to any trader that after such a move higher that once the triple digit target of 100.00 was achieved that the index would pullback.

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<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/DXY-MONTHLY-CHART-03052015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-5910" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/DXY-MONTHLY-CHART-03052015-1024x534.png" alt="DXY MONTHLY CHART 03052015" width="1024" height="534" /></a>

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We have pulled back to about a 23.6% Fibonacci level around 95.00. This is shallow and if we hold here and return higher the move will be more powerful than the original move higher, and, in my opinion it will not just touch 100.00 and reverse it will go much higher.

I have read so many articles saying that the USD is doomed and that no one wants to hold USD; what a complete load of crap. The USD is the flight to safety currency, not the JPY, CHF and certainly not the EUR.

Looking ahead, we still have an OIL glut. The laws of “supply and demand” will have to apply soon. This is basic stuff. As we all know the OIL market is the most speculative market dominated by Hedge funds and millionaires looking for a quick buck based on high risk. OIL will return lower towards $40 again, sooner than we think. Even with increased demand for summer, the supply still exceeds demand. It cannot last for much longer.

I have already mentioned GOLD. No inflation, the pressure has to be to the downside.

Plus, we have Central Bank divergence, almost across the board. The FED and possibly the BOE line up opposite the remaining Central Banks, when it comes to Central bank monetary policy. This has to count for something dramatic moving forward in a zero inflation environment.

Finally, are we seeing the equity markets pushing extremes? I believe we are finally at a turning point. Valuations are crazy and money poured into European bourses as soon as the ECB announced QE. We saw an initial buying frenzy and now a pullback. Equity markets around the world would appear to be at the stage of “punch-drunk” with regards to QE. Should equities start to pull back, this should provide USD strength.

For the above reasons, I think that it is rather premature to write off the USD. For sure we have stopped in the area of the 23.6% retracement and we are consolidating around the 95.00 level.

It would take a brave man with testicles the size of footballs (European style) to shout from the roof tops that the USD is toast. It would also take a brave man to say that the USD is about to bounce back and try a run back to 100.00. Just for the record, my testicles are of normal size and fully functional.

When I first started trading I recall my training and one of my trainers telling me “Never fight the FED”. This is a great statement and one that I have never forgotten.

Whilst I do believe we are at a crossroads with the USD, I also think that it is too early to write off the USD. If you do - it is a RISK.

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<ol start="3">
	<li><strong><u> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</u></strong></li>
</ol>
<strong><u>SUMMARY OF PERFORMANCE:</u></strong>

<u>3.1 – OVERVIEW and SUBSCRIPTION OPTIONS, FEATURES and PRICING:</u>

For new readers who may not be aware, I refer to the PREMIUM SERVICE quite a lot in this blog and for more details about what it is, and, how much it costs, you will need to go the welcome page of <a href="http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>

At the top of my welcome page there are three drop down menus: -
PREMIUM SERVICE PROMOTIONS (if available)
SIGN-UP
DISCLAIMER

Further details and how to join are all contained there. You will need at PayPal account to subscribe.

Below I provide the details of GOLD and SILVER subscription options and pricing.

If at the time of posting this blog the SILVER option is not finalized on my website and you wish to purchase this please contact me via my email address at the end of the blog and I will manually set up the subscription.

<u>GOLD MEMBER SUBSCRIPTION FEATURES &amp; PRICING OPTIONS:</u>
<ul>
	<li>3 options on subscription periods.</li>
	<li>100% access to the PREMIUM SERVICE area of my website <a href="http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com">weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a></li>
	<li>A dedicated exclusive twitter feed for GOLD MEMBER subscribers only @ThePremService.</li>
	<li>All trade set-ups communicated via Twitter and RADAR and FUNDAMENTAL trades additionally via email when possible.</li>
	<li>The full and complete version of The WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU delivered weekly via an emailed PDF, and, viewable on line inside the PREMIUM SERVICE secure section of <a href="http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com">weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a></li>
	<li>My thoughts and comments on market conditions via twitter and/or email.</li>
</ul>
GOLD MEMBER SUBSCRIPTION OPTION PRICING:
(Please note that PayPal works in months NOT weeks)

10 weeks / 3 months:               $295.00

20 weeks / 6 months:               $495.00

40 weeks / 12 months:             $795.00

<u>SILVER MEMBER SUBSCRIPTION FEATURES &amp; PRICING OPTIONS:</u>
<ul>
	<li>Simple 4 weekly (monthly) membership pricing.</li>
	<li>A dedicated exclusive twitter feed for SILVER MEMBER subscribers only @PremServSilver.</li>
	<li>All my trade set-ups delivered to you via the SILVER MEMBER subscriber twitter feed @PremServSilver.</li>
	<li>Access to the PREMIUM SERVICE website (relevant trade information only).</li>
	<li>The “FREE NEWSLETTER” version of THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU delivered weekly direct to you email inbox and viewable online at <a href="http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com">weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a></li>
</ul>
SILVER MEMBER SUBSCRIPTION OPTION PRICING:
(Please note that PayPal works in months NOT weeks)

4 weeks / 1 month:                    $100.00

<u>PLEASE NOTE:</u>

From time to time special SUBSCRIPTION PROMOTIONS are offered. Check out the PROMOTIONS tab on my welcome page at <a href="http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>

&nbsp;

<u>3.2 - SUMMARY OF PERFORMANCE:</u>

(Only the excel spreadsheets will now be shown in this section. References to previous, present and future trades “LAST WEEK’s TRADING REVIEW” will now be provided solely for the benefit of PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers and has been moved into section 4).

<u>3.2.1 – PREMIUM SERVICE – COST INCOME ANALYSIS:</u>
<p style="text-align: center;">EMANATING FROM TRADE SET-UPS - 2015 to date:</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><u>MICRO LOT TRADER</u> - 301 trades cost to trade = $30.10
<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 301 trades = <strong><u>$383.90</u></strong></p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><u>MINI LOT TRADER</u> - 301 trades cost to trade = $301.00
<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 301 trades = <strong><u>$3,839.00</u></strong></p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><u>STANDARD LOT TRADER</u> - 301 trades cost to trade = $3,010.00
<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 301 trades = <strong><u>$38,390.00</u></strong></p>
<p style="text-align: center;">If the above return from Forex Trading interests you go to
<a href="http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> and check out the subscription options under the tab “PREMIUM SERVICE”.
The above PREMIUM SERVICE performance above is based off single-lot trade sizes.
THE PREMIUM SERVICE has subscribers with broker accounts of differing sizes, from $2,500 to over $100,000.
A profitable trade is a profitable trade it is all about trading according to the size of your broker account (EFFECTIVE POSITION SIZING) and applying RISK MANAGEMENT principles at all times.</p>
<u>3.2.2 - PREMIUM SERVICE - PROFIT/LOSS RATIOS:</u>

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/PROFIT-LOSS-RATIO-30042015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-5880" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/PROFIT-LOSS-RATIO-30042015.png" alt="PROFIT-LOSS RATIO 30042015" width="416" height="592" /></a>

<u>3.2.3 - PREMIUM SERVICE - RISK/REWARD ANALYSIS:</u>

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<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/RISK-REWARD-30042015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-5881" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/RISK-REWARD-30042015.png" alt="RISK-REWARD 30042015" width="433" height="536" /></a>

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<u>3.2.4 - PREMIUM SERVICE - OVERALL TRADE SUMMARY MONTH &amp; YTD:</u>

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<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/PREM-SERV-PROFITS1-30042015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-5878" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/PREM-SERV-PROFITS1-30042015.png" alt="PREM SERV PROFITS1 30042015" width="463" height="426" /></a>

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<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/PREM-SERV-PROFITS2-30042015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-5879" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/PREM-SERV-PROFITS2-30042015.png" alt="PREM SERV PROFITS2 30042015" width="463" height="439" /></a>

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<u>3.2.5 – PREMIUM SERVICE 2014 – 2015 PIP COMPARISON</u>

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<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/PIP-COMPARISON-2014-2015-30042015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-5890" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/PIP-COMPARISON-2014-2015-30042015.png" alt="PIP COMPARISON 2014-2015 30042015" width="619" height="529" /></a>

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<ol start="4">
	<li><strong><u> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBER EXCLUSIVE CONTENT:</u></strong></li>
</ol>
(Section 4 is exclusive PREMIUM SERVICE content only available to PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers)

<u>4.1 - EDUCATION:
</u>(The full list of all items and more from this section can be found in the PREMIUM SERVICE website in the Trade Essential area under the EDUCATION tab.)
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>CURRENCY CORRELATION EXPLAINED</strong></p>
Have you ever noticed that when a certain currency pair rises, another currency pair falls? Or how about when that same currency pair falls, another currency pair seems to copy it and fall also?

If the answer is “Yes” you have just witnessed currency correlation in action!

If you answered “No”, do not worry, because we are going to start with the basics and break it down.

<strong>CORRELATION: </strong>a relationship between two things.

<strong>WHAT IS CURRENCY CORRELATION?</strong>

In the financial world, correlation is a statistical measure of how two securities <strong>move in relation to each other</strong>.

Currency Correlation then tells us <strong>whether two currency pairs move in the same, opposite, or totally random direction</strong>, over some period of time.

When trading currencies, it is important to remember that since currencies are traded in pairs, that no single currency pair is ever totally isolated.

Unless you plan on trading just one pair at a time, it is crucial that you understand how different currency pairs move in relation to each other, especially if you are not familiar with how currency correlations can affect the amount of risk you are exposing your trading account to.

If you don’t know what the heck you are doing when trading multiple pairs simultaneously in your trading account, you can get KILLED! Murdered! Destroyed! I can’t stress this enough.

In this lesson, you will learn what currency correlation is and how to use it to help you become a smarter trader and make more responsible risk management decisions.

Correlation is computed into what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1.

<strong>Perfect positive correlation </strong>(a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that the two currency pairs will move in the same direction 100% of the time.

<strong>Perfect negative correlation </strong>(a correlation coefficient of -1) means that the two currency pairs will move in the opposite direction 100% of the time.

If the correlation is 0, the movements between two currency pairs is said to have ZERO or NO correlation, they are completely independent and random from each other. We have no idea how one pair will move in relation to the other.

<strong> </strong>

<u>4.2 – THE PREMIUM SERVICE – TRADING REVIEW:</u>

What a week.

Lost pips…made pips…lost pips…made pips… the roller coaster of weeks.

It was as far as I was concerned one of those weeks when I was saying over and over to myself and my wife… woulda, coulda, shoulda… if only etc.

I know from speaking to many of you that you all went on the roller coaster ride as well. Some of you unfortunately got chewed up and have not recovered. I am roughly, at about break even on the week in my own accounts, the PREMIUM SERVICE is up!!

We also completed another month of trading. April 2015 showed another improvement in pip return based against April 2014. April 2014 generated 688 pips and this year April generated 889 pips. Year to date 2015 total pips so far is ahead of 2014 by 1,116 pips. I am happy with this performance but like many traders I feel like we have completed a year already.

It certainly has been a hard year for trading, I am hoping that we calm down a little into some directional trading but I fear that this may be a false hope and that we will continue in the same routine for a while longer.

The great news about last week is that we have hopefully seen the end of the range bound market (except USD/JPY). Finally, it looks like we have broken free. However, as I have noted before, with range trading, do not be surprised to see false breakouts that pullback into the prior range in following sessions. Then all we have created is a wider trading range.

Risks are still high; if we look at the equity markets across the globe they are at major inflection points and I think that it looks like the equity markets are going to implode. Lets see if that happens, should this happen we should get a flight to safety with the USD being bought across the board.

My fingers are crossed for a directional two or three trading days. Looking at specific currencies; I am bearish the GBP, NZD and AUD. These three currencies have high beta news events to contend with and if we have accommodative news we could have some really nice momentum moves ahead…. fingers crossed.

<u>4.3 - THE PREMIUM SERVICE - EXISTING LIVE TRADES:</u>

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<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/PS-LIVE-TRADES-03052015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-5907" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/PS-LIVE-TRADES-03052015.png" alt="PS LIVE TRADES 03052015" width="721" height="502" /></a>

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<u>4.4 - THE PREMIUM SERVICE – EXISTING LIMIT ORDERS:</u>

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<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/PS-LIMIT-ORDERS-03052015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-5906" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/PS-LIMIT-ORDERS-03052015.png" alt="PS LIMIT ORDERS 03052015" width="718" height="396" /></a>

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<u>PLEASE NOTE:</u>

Remember position sizes for suggested FUNDAMENTAL TRADES should be much smaller than usual, maybe only 20%-25% of your normal trading position size. It is only when we add to our positions that the fun begins. All FUNDAMENTAL trades posted via email contain a second page with details of where I will add trades and when and where stops are moved, the Stair Stepping Stop Protection (SSSP) is self-explanatory and I hope useful. Using this grows your trading position and helps protect the profits made, should the trade gain traction. In addition, I have added some detail on my HEDGING approach as well to the second FUNDAMENTAL TRADE alert page. More detailed information on HEDGING can be found inside the PREMIUM SERVICE website under the EDUCATION tab – Trading Essentials.

I view the commodity cross-rate pairs, which form the basis of my FUNDAMENTAL TRADE SET-UPS as bonus trades away from the USD majors and over the year they can be very profitable. This is why I have a separate broker account for commodity cross-RATE PAIR trades. It gives me an immediate measurement of performance without the need to extrapolate data.

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<u>4.5 - POTENTIAL TRADES - WHAT CHARTS AM I LOOKING AT?</u>

(This section usually contains charts mainly relating to non-USD majors, in particular the ones that I am working on and looking at because they catch my eye that may become potential trades in the trading sessions ahead. If there are no comments beneath the charts, my comments / thoughts are written on them directly. I will tweet and email as soon as these possible trades become LIMIT ORDERS)

<u>THIS WEEKS OVERVIEW:</u>

GREECE still worries me, and, I still think we have a default coming. Now we also have a UK election this week.

This week there are only two charts. I am LIVE in trades and I do want to add any more RISK at this stage. The Commodity Cross rate pairs will come on stream probably after the UK election.

&nbsp;

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/GBPUSD-240M-03052015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-5911" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/GBPUSD-240M-03052015-1024x519.png" alt="GBPUSD 240M 03052015" width="1024" height="519" /></a>

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<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/AUDUSD-60M-03052015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-5912" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/AUDUSD-60M-03052015-1024x519.png" alt="AUDUSD 60M 03052015" width="1024" height="519" /></a>

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<u>4.6 - MAJOR TRADING PAIRS WITH LONGER-TERM TRENDS MATCHING:</u>

The following currency pairs have Short Term (DAILY), Medium Term (WEEKLY) and Long Term (MONTHLY) charts all trending in the same direction.

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<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/TRENDING-PAIRS-03052015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-5908" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/TRENDING-PAIRS-03052015.png" alt="TRENDING PAIRS 03052015" width="393" height="508" /></a>

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<u>4.7 - THE KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS</u><strong><u>:
</u></strong>(The reviews in the section are accompanied with weekly charts of the USD majors)<strong> </strong>

&nbsp;

<strong>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.1188</strong>

We could be at a crossroads with this pair. I never expected to see the EUR/USD around 1.1300. The moves in the past week took me completely by surprise. I think we are now at the point where support at 1.1040–1.1050 needs to hold should we continue to pullback. If 1.1050 does not support a move lower then I think we are going to have the bears in control once again.

Never underestimate the FED. We have the ECB pulling one way and the FED in the opposite direction. The natural path for the EUR/USD is lower given the divergent Central bank policies.

It is a big week for the USD. Was Friday’s strength just a blip or was it the start of a move higher in the DXY?

Geopolitical news surrounding GREECE is hanging over this pair and it is difficult to read. The best policy may be to avoid it until the GREECE situation is sorted.

Support in the EUR/USD is at 1.1100 then below a big 1.1050 level. Resistance is at 1.1285.

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/EURUSD-W-03052015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-5904" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/EURUSD-W-03052015-1024x519.png" alt="EURUSD W 03052015" width="1024" height="519" /></a>

<strong> </strong>

<strong> </strong>

<strong>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.5116</strong>.

The weekly chart-closing candle says it all. I am expecting pressure on the cable running up to the May 7<sup>th</sup> election. Then after this date we could have a great deal of further uncertainty as it looks like a coalition government of some sort will need to be formed.

Support should be at 1.5000 and resistance at 1.5130 then 1.5250

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/GBPUSD-W-03052015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-5903" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/GBPUSD-W-03052015-1024x519.png" alt="GBPUSD W 03052015" width="1024" height="519" /></a>

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<strong> </strong>

<strong>AUD/USD: Closing Price 0.7835</strong>.

A huge week for AUD news is on the horizon, the biggest event being the interest rate decision. There are many calls for the RBA to cut rates. In the past few days the AUD has been under pressure.

From the chart below it is clear to see that we have a bearish closing weekly candle that indicates more downside pressure.

Support should now be at 0.7740 and resistance at 0.7850.

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<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/AUDUSD-W-03052015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-5905" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/AUDUSD-W-03052015-1024x519.png" alt="AUDUSD W 03052015" width="1024" height="519" /></a>

&nbsp;

<strong>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.7519</strong>.

This pair following the RBNZ Rate announcement and policy statement earlier last week is firmly bearish.

The weekly closing candle is a shooting star that usually indicates a bearish move. FUNDAMENTALLY, I have been bearish this pair for some time and now with the RBNZ basically saying that rate increases are off the table the door is open for a move lower.

Support is at 0.7420 and resistance is at 0.7540.

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/NZDUSD-W-03052015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-5902" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/NZDUSD-W-03052015-1024x519.png" alt="NZDUSD W 03052015" width="1024" height="519" /></a>

<strong> </strong>

<strong> </strong>

<strong>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.2140.</strong>

We have a hanging man candle to close the weekly chart. This is a reversal candle and as such should indicate a move higher in this pair.

The next stopping point higher for me is really 1.2350 and I would imagine that there are plenty of sellers there waiting to short. Support should be good at 1.2060.

&nbsp;

<strong><a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/USDCAD-W-03052015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-5901" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/USDCAD-W-03052015-1024x519.png" alt="USDCAD W 03052015" width="1024" height="519" /></a> </strong>

<strong> </strong>

<strong>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.9317</strong>.

I think that the uncertainty over GREECE is finally manifesting itself in the CHF. I would stay clear until the GREECE situation is resolved.

Support is at 0.9250 and resistance at 0.9450.

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/USDCHF-W-03052015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-5900" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/USDCHF-W-03052015-1024x519.png" alt="USDCHF W 03052015" width="1024" height="519" /></a>

<strong> </strong>

<strong> </strong>

<strong>USD/JPY: Closing Price 120.05. </strong>

Despite a big move up this week in comparison to last weeks close we are still in a range. I think, when I look back that it has been stuck in this range for over 4 months, and, I see no way out for the time being.

If you are range trader enjoy… If not stay away.

Support is at 119.50 and resistance at 120.50.

&nbsp;

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/USDJPY-W-03052015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-5899" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/USDJPY-W-03052015-1024x519.png" alt="USDJPY W 03052015" width="1024" height="519" /></a>
<ol start="5">
	<li><strong><u> THE CONCLUSION - MY FINAL THOUGHTS:</u></strong></li>
</ol>
<u>5.1 - SUBSCRIBING TO THE “FREE VERSION” OF THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU:</u>

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<u>5.2 –TRADING TIPS &amp; THOUGHTS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD: </u>

This coming week is a major week for news.

AUD news is almost daily, there is also major NZD news this week, but the highlights will be the U.S. employment data.

Add to the economic data, the GREECE news and the UK General Election and it has the makings of a big week.

Plus… we also have a potential move back towards 100.00 in the DXY. I am not yet convinced about this yet, but we have the potential to move.

The bottom line is however, be careful and do not get too carried away. It is always safer when high-beta news is hovering to establish smaller positions with wider stop losses in position.

We will have opportunities to make $$$, we just have to be alert and careful.

As always, there will be trades to trade and there will be some great opportunities, please trade in line with your RISK MANAGEMENT parameters from your TRADING PLAN. If you do not have a TRADE PLAN, in my opinion, you should, as this will help you with consistency.
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>Consistency = longevity in trading and that is a critical goal.
IT IS THE KEY MEASUREMENT</strong></p>
Before you enter a trade work out the risk, price it in $$$. Place your stop accordingly. PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers have a full library of information on RISK MANAGEMENT, RISK TOLERANCES and POSITION SIZING etc. available for reference 24x7.

&nbsp;

Take care.

Scott Pickering
The Pip Accumulator
Sunday May 3rd 2015

EMAIL / FOLLOW ME AT:
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&nbsp;

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