<strong>THE DAILY FX POST
from
THE PREMIUM SERVICE</strong>

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<strong>DATE: Thursday 4th September 2014
REF: #81</strong>

<strong>1. OVERVIEW – INITIAL THOUGHTS:</strong>

Before starting, just a quick hello and welcome to the new subscribers. I realize that I still have a hard core “Not interested in Twitter” group. Please let me know if this new format to the DAILY FX POST is good for you.

It’s a big 48 hours in the Forex market from today. The ECB Press Conference is later today and U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls at the same time tomorrow being the pick of the data on the horizon.

I have been reading a lot of articles on Draghi launching Quantitative Easing, frankly I just don’t see it, but given the recent economic data from Germany I can see the case to argue for additional ECB stimulus. Having said that, I have been calling for ECB easing for months, so why now? As I have written for years now, Germany runs the EUROZONE and given the steep decline in German retail sales, plus the increasing unemployment coupled with poor consumer, business and investor confidence in the largest EUROZONE economy if Germany needs help then it would be immediate.

I just can’t see Draghi sitting down behind the table and doing nothing. He must at least say that the rules are being laid out now for implementation. If Draghi merely cuts GDP and inflation forecasts once again the EUR should drop. He has other options that could also help regarding asset backed securities (ABS) purchases. Whatever happens, I just can’t see him doing nothing. We wait with bated breath.

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<strong>2. KEY NEWS EVENTS TODAY (BASED UPON (NYC) EDT TIME ZONE)</strong>

GBP – BOE Bank Rate and Asset Purchase Facility level decisions.
EUR – ECB Interest rate decision and Press Conference.
USD – ADP Non-Farm Employment Change.
CAD – Trade Balance
USD – Trade balance and ISM Non –Manufacturing PMi.

<strong>3. EXISTING LIVE TRADES:</strong>

Both of the FUNDAMENTAL TRADES below are hedged at 100 pip loss positions:

FUN14
GBP/NZD
Long
Entry at: 1.9800
Stop at: 1.9000
Limit at: 2.2350
Present Price: 1.9761
Current Profit / Loss Position: -39 pips

FUN37
GBP/AUD
Long
Entry at: 1.8200
Stop at: 1.7500
Limit at: 1.9155 then looking very, very long term to 2.0300
Present Price: 1.7604
Current Profit / Loss Position: -596 pips (position hedged)

RT141
EUR/USD
Short at 1.3150
Stop at 1.3200
Limit 1.3010
Present Price: 1.3126
Current Profit / Loss Position: +24 pips

RT142
NZD/USD
Short at 0.8330
Stop at 0.8420
Limit at 0.8000
Present Price: 0.8321
Current Profit / Loss Position: +9 pips<strong> </strong>

<strong>4. LIMIT &amp; STOP ORDERS WITH BROKERS:</strong>

RT143
AUD/NZD
Long at 1.1150
Stop at 1.1020
Limit at 1.1550
Present Price: 0.8322
Current Profit / Loss Position: +8 pips

RT144
GBP/USD
Short at 1.6480
Stop at 1.6550
Limit at 1.6300 (50% will be taken off table just above 1.6400)
Present Price: 0.8322
Current Profit / Loss Position: +8 pips

RT145
AUD/USD
Short at 0.9370
Stop at 0.9470
Limit at 0.9010 (I will aim to follow lower)
Present Price: 0.8322
Current Profit / Loss Position: +8 pips

<strong>5. FINAL THOUGHTS:</strong>

I think it is going to be quite a busy day. With Non- Farm payroll tomorrow, do not get suckered into trades to day.

Remember as well as the ECB, we have U.S. and Canadian Trade balance as well ADP and ISM data.

I will tweet as fast as I can my moves on the EUR/USD.

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<strong>6. DISCLAIMER:</strong>

Trading Forex carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if necessary.

Scott Pickering
The Pip Accumulator
<a href="http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>
Twitter: @ThePremService
Email: premiumserice@weeklyfxdrivethru.com

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