(10861,1,'2018-01-23 11:31:39','2018-01-23 16:31:39','<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE OPENING SHOT:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nWhat a week that was.\r\n\r\nHoly Mother of God, trading this week for me was hard with my trading style. There was movement, mostly one way, call it reactionary, impulsive or fear of missing out trading (FOMO), call it whatever you want it was nonstop selling of the USD. I cannot recall too many times over the past 10 years that I have seen so much nonstop one-way traffic. I spent a great deal of the time sidelined watching what went on, there were no, what I call usual market pullbacks to meet my TRADE PLAN guidelines to enter.\r\n\r\nChart indicators meant little, similar could be said of many Fibonacci levels. During last week, we had several market squeezes, a Dovish hike with a Hawkish outcome and more “chop action” than a family butcher would get through in a month; we as FX traders had it all in just 5 days.\r\n\r\nThe week was light on economic data to consider. From my perspective all the market moving economic data events were last Wednesday, the BOC interest rate decision and Press Conference, AUD employment data and Chinese GDP. The rest of the week we were at the mercy of equities.\r\n\r\nThe swings in US equities, especially the Dow Jones index, which had around a 1,000 point move up and down in 48 hours were nothing more than just extreme, it was basically just mental price activity.\r\n\r\nCable squeezed like feck, it has 1.4000 in mind. The markets are gunning to take stops above this figure but on Friday last week following poor Retail Sales figures the pair fell back from achieving 1.3945.\r\n\r\nAlso, the JPY had its moments. I had several JPY trades which in a flash turned from strength to weakness as the USD/JPY squeezed higher above 111.00.\r\n\r\nThe EUR/USD leapt up as well, it obviously wants to take stops above 1.2300. Despite severe jawboning from the ECB and other EU figures, the single currencies move higher was relentless during the week.\r\n\r\nThe commodity currencies AUD and NZD slowly kept grinding higher with small pullbacks then off again taking new highs as they moved.\r\n\r\nIn a normal market, one would expect some sort of price test to verify the break out or break down levels. I placed three what I called “no brainer” limit orders to do just that. They all triggered and then swiftly reversed stopping me out of all three trades. Bugger that for a game of soldiers as one might say!\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nI had placed a huge amount of faith in the BOC news. It was a dovish hike but a sort of hawkish “at times” press conference all the USD/CAD gains, were given back and then a huge spike to end the day. We ended the day with a very long wicked “Doji” candle the highs at 1.2540 and lows at 1.2350. The price movements during the day were just mad. The CAD lived up to it’s nickname “Loonie”\r\n\r\nIf all this was not enough…\r\n\r\nEnter the old groper “LITTLE HANDS” talking his usual bollocks over NAFTA, escalating the chatter with China and in so doing pushing a potential trade war closer and then the escalating chatter surrounding yet another US government shutdown. This just fueled the already crazy price action and volatility.\r\n\r\nI just cannot wait to see “LITTLE HANDS” in Davos this week. He will no doubt overshadow the whole proceedings and bring increased security issues along with him. Never mind the headlines that will emanate from his reasons to visit.\r\n\r\nBasically, to sum up last week, there was little point measuring moves, most of the time trading was tantamount to gambling. I am sure many traders will disagree with that statement but how anyone could plot a trade under those circumstances was using luck more than skill. Only the true 1 and 5-minute scalper traders with all that experience and nerve could have survived, it was at times a bloodbath. Even my “Pressure charts” which are great on directional behavior were all over the place on low minute charts. I was sidelined.\r\n\r\nLast week and looking forward the USD was on the “Highway to Hell”. From time-to-time but for really short periods it demonstrated some signs of a recovery, but these were very short lived. Basically, sellers of the USD were lining up as soon as spikes were seen. Selling the “RIPS” was the order of the week. Even last Friday as the latest D.C. shutdown approached the USD strengthened a little but my overall thought process remains; it’s going down.\r\n\r\nNow look, I do expect a pullback, as I have said in many of my blogs. Remember, the FX market likes to check / validate prices. However, I am viewing these validation levels as opportunities, but they are all so far away from current pricing at the moment, it will take some patience to sit out the wait.\r\n\r\nWill the pullback happen this week?\r\n\r\nOne would like to think so, however, but to be honest with “LITTLE HANDS” let loose in Davos anything could happen.\r\n\r\nBeing patient is a trading skill. It’s sounds absolutely crazy and bizarre to say that staying sidelined is a trading skill, but it is. Knowing when to RISK your capital is precious.\r\n\r\nThe DXY chart below shows the declining USD from TRUMP’S inauguration day last January 2017 until now.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/DXY-W-INDEX-20012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10814\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/DXY-W-INDEX-20012018-1024x586.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"586\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nTo be frank, I just cannot for the life of me understand at this point in time, why anyone would want to hold the USD. It really is one-way traffic. I never thought that I would ever write something like that for a currency where the Central bank is taking the lead to normalization. My brain is telling me USD strength. Central Bank divergence rules. Other Central banks are shifting policy, but the FED is well down the road of normalization, nearly all of the other G10 countries are talking about it and getting the markets ready but have done nada so far. It’s all quite bizarre.\r\n\r\nConnect to iTunes and play AC/DC “Highway to Hell” and look at the above DXY chart one more time!\r\n\r\nTo complete this section, this week…\r\n\r\nEnding soon…\r\n\r\n“BUY ONE GET ONE FREE”\r\n\r\nWith a new trading year just starting, there is another target of 10,000 pips for me to beat in 2018. I have launched a PREMIUM SERVICE promotion called, “BUY ONE GET ONE FREE” which is available until January 31st, 2018.\r\n\r\nThe details of the “BUY ONE GET ONE FREE” promotion can be found on my home page under the TAB “PROMOTIONS”.\r\n\r\nI would point out that with the PROMOTION for CAD$800.00 you will have a one years complete subscription and hopefully be part of the 10,000 pips haul this year.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE PREMIUM SERVICE TRADING LAST WEEK:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</span>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/POS-SUMMARY-20012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10817\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/POS-SUMMARY-20012018-1024x878.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"878\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong> THIS WEEK’S OVERVIEW and OPPORTUNITIES:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>\r\n3:1. THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/ECON-DATA-20012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10816\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/ECON-DATA-20012018-1024x821.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"821\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3:2. FX NEWS ITEM – “PICK OF THE WEEK”:</u>\r\n\r\nThe prime piece of data on the agenda this week that has caught my eye, from a MUST TRADE perspective:\r\n\r\n<u>EUR: ECB RATE DECISION and PRESS CONFERENCE:</u>\r\n\r\nGod love Mario Draghi.\r\n\r\nPersonally, I can see that he has basically won, with one or two minor exceptions his long hard fight to get fellow governing council members of the ECB to tow the line and unite on the ECB policy decisions. Over the past few years council members, in particular, Jens Wiedmann (President of Deutsche Bank), Ewald Nowotny (President of the National Bank of Austria) and Wolfgang Schauble (Ex. Governing Council Member, ex. German Finance Minister and now President of the Bundestag), would say and do whatever they thought undermining Draghi and the alleged combined efforts of the ECB for the EUROZONE greater good.\r\n\r\nDraghi attempted several ways to bring these people in line. Some outspoken speeches, such as “Whatever it takes….”. Eventually the lines were drawn and most of the time they are adhered to.\r\n\r\nThis past week or so rhetoric from all over the EU and ECB has been united in trying to keep a lid on EUR strength. Late last year much time was spent by the ECB talking down tapering and interest rate normalization. This worked but recently more to do with USD weakness the single currency has strengthened across the board.\r\n\r\nThe EUR/USD is fast approaching 1.2300 and the ECB are pissing conkers over this. They do NOT want an exchange rate at this level. They have been jawboning, but to little effect as the USD selling has been vicious. Therefore, this week’s press conference will be fascinating to follow.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3:3. MY THOUGHTS ON TRADING THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you did not know I am more of a Fundamental trader.\r\n\r\nTiming is everything and the following may start to bear fruit this week, it may take a week or two.\r\n\r\nLast week I talked about JPY strength. I am not going to go into great trade set up by set up ideas in this area of the blog, that is reserved for PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers, however, let me elaborate a little more based on the recent price action with what could happen in my opinion.\r\n\r\nWe have extremes, I have been using the word stretched a lot of late. Let me throw out a few observations:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Equities are squeezing higher</li>\r\n 	<li>U.S. Treasury Yields are also moving higher</li>\r\n 	<li>U.S. 10-year Bonds are dumping</li>\r\n 	<li>Oil has been on a tear higher</li>\r\n 	<li>USD (DXY) has dumped.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nShould the extreme moves stop, and reverse will the USD benefit?\r\n\r\nU.S. Yields are going up but the relationship with the USD/JPY is broken. This pair is not rising.\r\n\r\nEquities are at all-time highs. The USD/JPY is not following. The correlation is not there.\r\n\r\nLook at the USD/JPY chart below. As mentioned recently there is a big move brewing and as I have said with the BOJ looking to move on its long term monetary policy of accommodation to maybe being a little more leaning towards normalization the path lower would be my thoughts on the matter.\r\n\r\nThe USD/JPY is in a triangle pattern. Long term, but in the apex. 110.00 as you can imagine is huge trend line support and the implications of a move lower beyond that level would be huge.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/USDJPY-W-20012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10815\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/USDJPY-W-20012018-1024x591.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"591\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nI see, as I have stated before the JPY as the bonus trade in 2018. This is as a direct result of the BOJ changing policy.\r\n\r\nObviously, with a BOJ move this affects not just USD/JPY but it also implications for most if not all of the JPY crosses.\r\n\r\nI would also look at the NZD. New Prime Minister, Jacinda Ardern has announced that she is pregnant and will be taking maternity leave. The role of PM in New Zealand would therefore pass to Winston Peters. By all accounts populist and an unknown quantity. This should place the NZD negative moving forward.\r\n\r\nWe have seen so many stretched moves over the past 10 days, I am ready and waiting for the pullbacks to re-enter in the direction of the Weekly and Monthly trends. I expect lots of bull and bear flag patterns on the 240M, 480M, 720M and daily charts coming through.\r\n\r\nIn addition, the closing candles will be heavily scrutinized by the banks and large institutions this week as they set up their books for the week ahead.\r\n\r\nThere’s more…\r\n\r\nNAFTA talks start up again in my old home town of Montreal. It will according to twitter (so it must be 100% accurate!) be a 9-day affair. Most of the clever people feel that if “LITTLE HANDS” rips up the agreement, whilst we have a six-month hiatus period, the currency that will suffer the most would be the MXN. Let’s see about that one!\r\n\r\nEven more…\r\n\r\nCross rates of late are broadly speaking wound up very tight. There is an explosive move on the cards, be very, very careful. Make sure that your position sizes vis-à-vis cross rates are about 25% of your usual trading size or less!\r\n\r\nFinally,\r\n\r\nTherefore, here’s a tip. If you are trading, trade only the following times when liquidity will be at its highest: 8.00AM EST to NOON EST. This may not always be possible, but it is without doubt the best time to trade.\r\n\r\nIn addition, be extremely careful with cross rates as they will be the first to suffer from the lower liquidity periods in the market.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3:3. USD MAJORS – SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE with MY BIAS:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/TCHART-20012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10828\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/TCHART-20012018-1024x874.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"874\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u>3:4. USD – TRADING CHARTS: </u>\r\n\r\nMore often than not I will use DAILY CHARTS for my analysis. My commentary and thoughts for each trading pair are above the charts.\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n<u>EUR/USD:</u></strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nLooks bullish to me with a nice bull flag pattern developing.\r\n\r\nThe issue I have is that I would prefer a re-test of the breakout price of 1.2092. I would like to see a break lower to that level or at least 1.2165 to validate the move higher.\r\n\r\nI am firmly in the camp of this pair moving higher through 2018 and I have my H1 target of 1.2668 in my mind and on my trading charts. That level BTW would be a great shorting level. It is the 61.8% retracement level of the 2014 high to the 2017 low.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/EURUSD-D-20012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10830\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/EURUSD-D-20012018-1024x462.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"462\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP/USD:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nPoor Retail Sales data last Friday in my opinion scuppered any test of 1.4000. It is a huge psychological number that will be taken out and then what’s next, that is the question.\r\n\r\nI like the idea of a nice pullback to 1.3612. Dream on, if that were to happen a choir of heavenly angels would be singing in close harmony over my desk! 1.3650 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) would be good enough.\r\n\r\nI have a feeling the 38% Fibonacci level may be “all we get” at 1.3760 and even that may be very difficult.\r\n\r\nIt is nevertheless a “BUY THE DIP” pair to take back to 1.4000 in my opinion.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/GBPUSD-D-20012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10831\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/GBPUSD-D-20012018-1024x462.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"462\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>AUD/USD:</u></strong>\r\nWe are in an upward sloping channel pattern. A few weeks ago, I was certain that this pair was going to break higher and test the 0.8120 level. Recent price action, when the AUD has basically crawled higher, retraced, albeit shallow, then spiked up again makes me wonder just a bit will it hit the lofty heights around 0,.8120.\r\n\r\nWhy?\r\n\r\nLong wicks show no price confirmations and a basic lack of follow through. Therefore, I question the conviction of the move. There have been some long green candles as well, so I am somewhat caught between a rock and a hard place vis-à-vis this pair.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/AUDUSD-D-20012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10829\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/AUDUSD-D-20012018-1024x462.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"462\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>NZD/USD:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nLast week I had this drawn more like an ascending wedge, having re-visited my charts, I see it similar to the AUD/USD in the sense that it is an upward sloping channel.\r\n\r\nThe overhead is playing its part however with this pair and with the political concerns in New Zealand about to become reality, the upward move could very soon be over. Pleases me no end. I am in a CORE SHORT position with this currency.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/NZDUSD-D-20012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10832\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/NZDUSD-D-20012018-1024x462.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"462\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD/CAD:</u></strong><strong>\r\n</strong>\r\nWe have a BEAR FLAG pattern on the daily chart below. Ideally a move to just below 1.2600 to short would be just brilliant.\r\n\r\nWith NAFTA talks looming one cannot guarantee anything with this pair as it certainly lives up to its nickname of the “Loonie” if recent price action is anything to go by.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/USDCAD-D-20012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10833\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/USDCAD-D-20012018-1024x462.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"462\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD/CHF:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nLast week, I mentioned this pair dropping to 0.9450. It could still happen and more if the ECB projects the EUR/USD higher this week during the ECB Monetary Policy statement and the following Press Conference.\r\n\r\nAs you can see from the chart it spiked below trend line support on Friday last week and quickly gathered itself. This is NOT over.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/USDCHF-D-20012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10834\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/USDCHF-D-20012018-1024x462.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"462\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD/JPY:</u></strong><u>\r\n</u>\r\nI need to get myself focused on this currency this coming week. It is in my action plan to do so.\r\n\r\nI am now looking at a HEAD AND SHOULDERS pattern playing out a measured move to 107.40. We have had an almost perfect test of the neckline break.\r\n\r\nBelow 110.00 is an important level to cut through in my opinion.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/USDJPY-D-20012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10835\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/USDJPY-D-20012018-1024x462.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"462\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS ONLY:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4:1. TRADING REVIEW:</u><u></u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nA bit better this week, but OMG it is tough out there. I am not a scalper 5 minute to 15 minutes trader. Having had a quick session with my peer group, I noticed there were a lot of expletives in the conversation. Basically, most were caught off guard and seasoned traders were dipping in and out quickly, again NOT my style. Everyone is waiting on the pullback to re-enter with the trend.\r\n\r\nI was not really too engaged with the market from a LIVE trade perspective last week, so it is hard to review from that viewpoint.\r\n\r\nI closed a few trades here and there to limit RISK but for most of the time I was just following charts looking for entries that never materialized as pullbacks were so shallow they did not represent an entry for me using my TRADE PLAN guidelines.\r\n\r\nI finally have some green balances in my broker accounts. If everything pans out the way I think it will this week, it could be a bit more exciting than last week on the basis that I may feel a bit more involved with the moves. Like a lot of you, I was in front of screens for hours last week just observing. This type of activity does sort out the traders from the gamblers though and as I have said on so many occasions patience is a virtue that <u>ALL</u> FX traders require in abundance.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>4:2. SENTIMENT CHART,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nI am clear on what I want from trading this quarter. If it all pans out “Happy Days”.\r\n\r\nI have a lot of chart work ahead of me over the next few days. I have provisional set ups ready in the following: -\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY, AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY, NOK/JPY, SEK/JPY, CAD/JPY, EUR/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, GBP/NZD, GBP/AUD, EUR/NZD, EUR/AUD, USD/CAD, USD/MXN and USD/CHF.\r\n\r\nMost of the above are limit orders via POSITION TRADES. I have drop down limit orders for both RADAR and FUNDAMENTAL trades based on shorter time frames also on my desk. It’s quite a neat pile of papers. It will just take around 3-4 hours to verify charts, exits and entries, load into my brokers, tweet, email and finally get into the excel system.\r\n\r\nI hope to start sending these out Monday and Tuesday.\r\n\r\nI have already mentioned in the blog in an earlier segment that I am looking to the JPY and NZD this coming week.\r\n\r\nThe inter-market relationships are not correlating and that is a concern for me fundamentally. I am NOT comfortable with RISK when this occurs.\r\n\r\nI believe that RISK OFF that we have not really experienced for several years will be upon us very soon. I am not sure what the catalyst will be to trigger this event, Equities, “LITTLE HANDS”, The FED, The ECB, The BOJ, China, US Treasuries, BREXIT, Germany or “LITTLE ROCKET MAN”.\r\n\r\nThe JPY will be the currency to track this year and as I said last week its rise up the charts is a bonus. The great news is the USD/JPY is liquid.\r\n\r\nUSD weakness is in my opinion going to be a theme in 2018 and this should please “LITTLE HANDS” no end.\r\n\r\nI am therefore looking long EUR/USD and GBP/USD but short with RISK OFF AUD/USD and NZD/USD.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/MKT-SENTIMENT-20012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10827\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/MKT-SENTIMENT-20012018-787x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"787\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4:3. TRADING PLANS and LONGER-TERM TRADE SUMMARIES:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4:3.1. MY TRADING PLAN OVERVIEW THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\nMy action plan for the week is: -\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>Prepare and post out as many of my longer-term POSITION TRADE limit orders in the early stages of the week, markets permitting.</li>\r\n 	<li>Add EUR long into my TRADE PLAN strategy following the ECB this Thursday.</li>\r\n 	<li>Continue to coordinate my strategy into my TRADE PLAN vis-à-vis the JPY. This is now very much a tradeable currency in 2018. For me it is similar to Lazarus coming back from the dead.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>4:3.2. LONG TERM CORE TRADES SUMMARIES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/LT-CORE-POS-20012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10859\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/LT-CORE-POS-20012018-1024x951.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"951\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4:4. CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT LIVE TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/LIVE-TRADES-20012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10819\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/LIVE-TRADES-20012018-1024x1015.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"1015\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT LIMIT ORDER TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/LIMIT-ORDERS-20012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10818\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/LIMIT-ORDERS-20012018-1024x960.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"960\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4:5. FX BROKER NEWS and MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNothing to add here. They were all very quiet last week, with me anyhow.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong> THE FINAL SHOTS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5:1. WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nIf you like what you have read in this blog and would like the chance to win a FREE SUBSCRIPTION valued at CAD$150.00, all you need to do is subscribe to my FREE NEWSLETTER (this blog), by adding your email address on my welcome page just below my cube logo at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5:2. CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\n\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @ThePremService\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #162 PREMIUM SERVICE\r\nDATE: 20th January 2018\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','THE USD IS ON \"THE HIGHWAY TO HELL\"','','inherit','closed','closed','','10837-revision-v1','','','2018-01-23 11:31:39','2018-01-23 16:31:39','',10837,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/10837-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(10999,1,'2018-02-17 09:54:51','2018-02-17 14:54:51','&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE FIRST SHOT:</strong><strong> </strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nJust like last week, there are many options on subjects to write about. We are trading in strange times.\r\n\r\nOne-night last week I went back through PDF files that I have stored under the EDUCATION (Trading Essentials) TAB that is inside the PREMIUM SERVICE subscriber section of my website. There are about 60 PDF files in that area, some of them are maybe 4 years old. I was checking for relevance, which is a six-month diary alert.\r\n\r\nNot only are they relevant, but they are as useful today as they were when I first wrote them. The intention was to build up an EDUCATION area for newbie traders and those who had less than 2-3 years’ experience. Reading through some them once again, it prompted me to send out the following 5-part tweet to PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers last Wednesday, just prior to the US close (Wednesday was the day of the massive USD reversal after the CPi data).\r\n\r\nTo read the tweet start from the bottom up!\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/TWEET-3-17022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-11003\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/TWEET-3-17022018-489x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"489\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/TWEET-2-17022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-11002\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/TWEET-2-17022018-462x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"462\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/TWEET1-17022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11001\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/TWEET1-17022018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"562\" height=\"716\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe purpose of placing these tweets in the blog is that after 10 years of trading, I was unsure what to do next. What I had seen during that day, took me by complete surprise and I needed to re-set. It is NOT a crime or weakness to say that you are uncertain of what to do next.\r\n\r\nWe are trading in strange times. Correlations are off. Trying not to be too cynical, but to me at times it seems like algorithms, computer bots and machine-driven theories are driving the markets one way then the other. If this is the case they are NOT interested in any correlations, inter-market or not! Fundamentals count, Technicals are very often ignored and we are trading in a dangerous news driven market. Sometimes, regardless of your experience in front of screens, your best trades are the ones you do NOT take.\r\n\r\nIf you are relatively new to Forex Trading or trading with limited funds, now, may be a good time to take a break for a while until some sense of normality returns.\r\n\r\nStocks are rising, in spite of a fast approaching 3% 10-year treasury yield, inflation entering the U.S. economy placing the FED on a well-advertised increasing interest rate cycle, commodity prices are elevated and the JPY strengthening. Something has got to give but until it does we are on for a crazy ride.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nMany traders lost huge amounts from their broker accounts over the past two weeks. You can talk about RISK MANAGEMENT, POSITION SIZING, TRADING PSYCHOLOGY and “HEAD” MANAGEMENT as reasons. The bottom line is we all stretch the limits from time to time, however, as a Forex Trader, trading longevity will never be achieved unless we trade a TRADE PLAN.\r\n\r\nI want to repeat a section that was in last week’s blog.\r\n\r\n<em>I have blogged about this so many times over the past 5 years or so and you can obviously draw your own conclusions, but, I am now more than ever of the belief after 10 years of trading that in FOREX: -</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>It is all about you\r\n</em><em>You have your machines\r\n</em><em>You have your charts\r\n</em><em>You have your analysis\r\n</em><em>It is you versus the world\r\n</em><em>It is all down to you\r\n</em><em>You will rise or fall on your decisions\r\n</em><em>Whether you are a Fundamental or Technical trader</em></p>\r\n\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><em></em><em>The media is biased. It only wants to promote “GOOD NEWS” because “BAD NEWS” does not get advertising revenue.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em></em><em>Banking analysts SELL their latest book. They do this whether it’s the right thing to do or not.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>Twitter feeds and other Social media can be a very dangerous place to ascertain quality data</em></li>\r\n</ul>\r\nFinally, in this section…\r\n\r\nFrom last week’s blog I must follow up on the sell -off in the DOW / S&amp;P / Nasdaq, when I called the sell-off THE IMMACULATE CORRECTION. I have found a company that shorted and made money. I have only heard of one, others must be known by now but: -\r\n\r\nIBEX INVESTORS based in Denver, Colorado.\r\nAri Rubin, IBEX Investors Director announced on BLOOMBERG TV 17.02.2018.\r\nHEDGE FUND made 8,600% profit from the move with the “VIX SURGE”.\r\n\r\nObviously, millions of retail investors had huge drawdowns in their investment balances. Many went to cash and never re-entered.  I would say that there are still retail investors picking up trading statements and sobbing. These markets are brutal at the moment.\r\n\r\nThe ABF….\r\n\r\nTrading in this market has been challenging from the get go in 2018.\r\n\r\nIt takes an understanding of what currency pairs to trade and when. Timing is everything. As we head into a period when the FED looks likely to be raising rates, the day to day challenges of trading FX will only intensify.\r\n\r\nI am doing nothing different in 2018 than I was doing in 2014. My daily routine is the same. So, what’s made the start of trading in 2018 so explosive over recent years.\r\n\r\nI still listen to lots of people’s opinions each day about the FX market. I read as many bank reports and analysts thoughts each day and to be honest some of them I use as ideas to trade against!\r\n\r\nWhat I am trying to say is that for 10 years now, I watch, listen and read the market every day. I hate to think how many thousands of hours I have spent in front of my screens observing how prices move.\r\n\r\nAll this time involved in research and observing price movements must count for something. This year, is the best start for the PREMIUM SERVICE since it started in 2014.\r\n\r\nGet on board and join from as little as CAD$150.00 per month, conversions are roughly as follows: -\r\n\r\nGBP £90 per month\r\nEUR €100 per month\r\nUSD $120 per month\r\nJPY 12,700 per month\r\nAUD $150 per month\r\n\r\nThis represents great value. You can subscribe for periods as well. Go to my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> for more details under the TAB – “SUBSCRIBE HERE”.\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE performance so far in 2018 is as follows: -\r\n\r\nFebruary 2018 so far:          +1,609 pips\r\nYear to date 2018:               +3,087 pips\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong> MARKET OVERVIEW – MY THOUGHTS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>I THINK OIL IS ABOUT TO HEAD MUCH LOWER ONCE AGAIN</strong></span></p>\r\nWhen I first started trading FX, I used to listen to a short 5-minute segment in a LIVE TV webinar presentation by a commodities trader. Not a catchphrase, but he would often say “IT’S ALL ABOUT COMMODITIES”. So, taken with this phrase, I used it to title a blog a few years ago. Not important, but it stuck in my mind because I wrote it while in a Caesar’s Palace hotel bedroom in Vegas.\r\n\r\nI believe that it will be OIL that will, for the want of a better phrase “Sort these markets out”.\r\n\r\nEvery morning as I set myself up for the day, screens go on and with coffee in hand I look through my charts for my key indicators one by one GOLD, COPPER, OIL, 10-YEAR U.S. BONDS, DXY, USD/CAD, AUD/USD and USD/SEK.\r\n\r\nI think to myself almost every day: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>OIL is a dying commodity.</li>\r\n 	<li>OPEC as a cartel is not what it was. It no longer has the power it once had. OPEC controls 40% of the production and holds about 60% of the distribution</li>\r\n 	<li>Data from OPEC cannot be trusted, and OPEC members are very loosely united.</li>\r\n 	<li>The OIL market is basically corrupt; it is heavily manipulated by several large players.So</li>\r\n 	<li>In the name of sanity why is WTi priced above $60 per barrel?</li>\r\n 	<li>I still laugh at how such a FREE TRADE world gives such an open cartel so much media time.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nI know it’s crazy, but I just cannot wrap my head around the way OIL prices and OPEC carry so much weight. The fact is that they do, and, it is what it is…. suck it up!\r\n\r\nHere are my thoughts moving forward…\r\n\r\nThe U.S. is NOT an OPEC member and I seriously doubt it ever will be. The U.S. is now the biggest producer of OIL in the world on the basis that Saudi Arabia is subject to OPEC production quotas, and Russia, also NOT in OPEC, but, has aligned with OPEC to limit production output.\r\n\r\nThe IEA (International Energy Agency) and the US EIA (Energy Information Administration) have both ramped up numbers based on US shale production for 2018. In fact, most noticeably, the EIA stated recently that US shale production would increase by 1.3 million barrels per day by March 2018 over the March 2017 levels.\r\n\r\nI have no doubts in my continuing beliefs that OPEC is a fragile coalition. The likes of Nigeria, Iran, Iraq, Angola and Libya are known to be in need of greater production to meet internal economic needs and requirements. The production cut agreement is, in my opinion, hanging by the thread. Many countries who signed up for the production cuts are NOT in OPEC and have no loyalty to the cause other than price fixing benefits and greed. I also believe these non OPEC affiliates did not believe that they were signing up on a 2-3 year deal!\r\n\r\nLooking at prices…\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/WTi-DAILY-FOR-BLOG-17022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10976\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/WTi-DAILY-FOR-BLOG-17022018-1024x413.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"413\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nLooking at the charts above, technically below $58.00 and OIL looks like a move lower towards the low $50’s would be in view once again. OIL is always about supply and demand. It is the classic economic supply and demand theory discussed in every classroom.\r\n\r\nIt is noted though that the move higher is impressive and the recent move lower may in fact just be technical.\r\n\r\nHowever…\r\n\r\nThe weaker USD has kept OIL prices inflated. The price of Oil has skyrocketed 40% since the middle of 2017, but the greed of OPEC opened the door for the US shale producers to step back in with improved methods in extracting OIL from shale for less cost than before. It has been well documented this time around that every dollar above $40-$45 and US shale producers are making money.\r\n\r\nMoving forward; what if…\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>The USD bounces off lows and spikes higher.</li>\r\n 	<li>The price of OIL falls back to say the region of $53-$55 per barrel.</li>\r\n 	<li>The supply and demand curves show that supply outweighs demand based on flows being increased by the US.</li>\r\n 	<li>With US interest rate hikes due this year, this alone will have an effect on Oil pricing vis-à-vis it’s USD relationship.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nI know that the above are “what if’s”, but do I think that OPEC would remain united if one or two cracks appeared? Not in a month of Sunday’s, there would be more cracks on view than one would see on a fully operational building site.\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, the fundamentals with higher OIL prices have too many cracks that have huge potential to appear and OPEC could not, faced with these issues, remain united.\r\n\r\nIf you do NOT like the “what if’s”… what about the bigger picture…\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>US production keeps rising</li>\r\n 	<li>Rig counts continue to increase which in turn increases production output and supply. Up by 7 last week. 4 weeks in a row of increases. Over 30% more than this time last year.</li>\r\n 	<li>Inventories just keep on building (Supply and Demand)</li>\r\n 	<li>This creates price pressure</li>\r\n 	<li>This places heat on the OPEC members to stay in line</li>\r\n 	<li>The weaker participants move away from the herd</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nIf the OPEC agreement breaks and a free for all ensues, the OIL price would plummet.\r\n\r\nWill this happen pre-US interest rate increases? I doubt it, but it could.\r\n\r\nThe OPEC production limit agreement consists of such a bizarre collection of countries united by greed to artificially keep OIL prices inflated, when cracks appear they will become gaping cracks very quickly as greed rules this commodity.\r\n\r\nI believe that when the OIL price moves lower it will be the catalyst that beings back inter-market correlations once again. OIL is integral to correlations in several markets; FX, Commodities, Futures and Stocks.\r\n\r\nIs the price of OIL about to collapse?\r\n\r\nWe are not far away from this in my opinion and with it we should have another bout of serious volatility as we find new equilibrium. Below $50.00, we will see another race to the bottom.\r\n\r\nIt is highly inflated at the moment but technical reasons as well as greed will spiral the price lower.\r\n\r\nFrom an FX perspective this gives us long USD/CAD, USD/NOK and USD/MXN opportunities.\r\n\r\nThese are trades that offer huge retracement potentials in 2018. Keep this on your RADAR.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>USD SUPPORT and RESISTANCE with my BIAS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/TCHART-17022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-10977\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/TCHART-17022018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1018\" height=\"890\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE PREMIUM SERVICE TRADING SUMMARY:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\n(Incorporating the last 5 PREMIUM SERVICE TRADES)\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/PS-SUMMARY-17022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10978\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/PS-SUMMARY-17022018-1024x857.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"857\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(This section is for PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS ONLY)\r\n<u>5.1. TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\nOver the past week I have tried to stick to my action plan posted in section 5.3.4, I have to a large extent been able to do so but the market moves have been quite weird, as far as I am concerned so things I thought I would be able to do I may not have got around to.\r\n\r\nThe unwinding is on and cash is being moved from asset class to asset class and from country to country, one must assume based upon JPY moves of late. I have a feeling that CASH WILL BE KING sooner rather than later.\r\n\r\nI added +507 pips last week and year to date I am now +3,087 pips, which reflects 30% of my annual objective. In comparison to all the shenanigans last year it is a chalk and cheese performance comparison.\r\n\r\nIt is challenging to trade with a backdrop of zero inter-market correlations working. The only asset class that has stayed true to form has been GOLD. GOLD had moved higher as a hedge against inflation, which in my opinion is the only reason for holding GOLD as an asset. Frankly, how people have gotten so excited over GOLD for the past 8 years beggars belief.\r\n\r\nI am operating in what seems to be a sea of RED broker accounts and out of this backdrop comes the odd trade here and there that I take profit on and bank both pips and $$$.\r\n\r\nTo be honest I am closely managing all trade styles apart from POSITION TRADES. In this type of market and the fact that I will allow larger drawdowns based upon monthly ATR numbers, I prefer to park POSITION TRADES and try only to check on my accounts that contain these trades only a couple of times a day.\r\n\r\nOver the past week, I have made most pips from being short USD/JPY. I am expecting a bounce soon and over the weekend I think shorting against 107.30, which was the initial breakdown point would offer a great shorting position. Whether or not we can bounce to this level is debatable. Nevertheless, I want to re-enter the USD/JPY on the short side once again.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.2. SENTIMENT,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:</u>\r\n\r\nFundamentally, I am still comfortable with my overall position. I would obviously prefer the NZD/USD at 0.7250 again, this would have a knock-on effect into all my NZD crosses, but I have to be patient.\r\n\r\nIt does look like the CENTRAL BANK DIVERGENCE TRADE may be the set up that drives the USD higher. Technically the USD is not oversold but it has been so bearish for so long, one would think that a relief rally is coming sooner rather than later. The S&amp;P is so extended, but it could go higher again. At the moment correlations stand for nothing and I think that it may take US Treasuries (10 YEAR) to test 3.0% to spark some concern. At the moment, Stocks are doing their own thing.\r\n\r\nOne factor to consider, the monthly 10 YR chart shows a double bottom pattern that comes into play should 3% break to the high side. The measured move is to 4.5%. This move would set the cat amongst the pigeons.\r\n\r\nSo, until common sense and correlations return to the market, patience will be required. You have two options, wait or cover. I am in the school of waiting and adding when price appears to represent better value for the longer-term view.\r\n\r\nSentiment with the USD majors is a little mixed and frankly that would be consistent with the money flows.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/SENTIMENT-17022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10983\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/SENTIMENT-17022018-778x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"778\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.3. THE WEEK AHEAD:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.1. ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES THAT INTEREST ME:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/ECON-DATA-170022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10979\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/ECON-DATA-170022018-1024x805.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"805\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.2. MY KEY EVENTS ON THIS WEEK’S CALENDAR AND WHY:</u>\r\n\r\nIn no particular order: -\r\n\r\n<u>USD – FOMC MEETING MINUTES:</u>\r\n\r\nThe minutes from Janet Yellen’s last meeting may reveal some more details on the thoughts of the FOMC with regards to Interest Rate Hikes in 2018 under Jerome Powell as FED chair.\r\n\r\nHaving said that, not too sure any major news from the FED would result in anything more than just a fleeting casual response.\r\n\r\nNevertheless, one must note the contents of the minutes from the FED.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>CAD – CORE RETAIL SALES &amp; CPi:</u>\r\n\r\nStephen Poloz will be watching the FED very closely. If this data is positive my thoughts are that the BOC will raise at the next meeting to keep in pace with the FED. Poloz has stated that rate hikes from the perspective of the BOC are data dependent.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>AUD – MONETARY POLICY MEETING MINUTES:</u>\r\n\r\nPhilip Lowe, Governor RBA, has stated recently that the AUS/USD at present levels is a hindrance to the Australian economy. This was the first attempt at jawboning by the RBA since Lowe became governor.\r\n\r\nShould the minutes contain references to the AUD exchange rate this should have an effect on the currency. Usually, in Australia the RBA send out an official after the release to clarify the RBA position. I would call this, if it refers to the currency exchange rate, the start of jawboning!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.3. HOW I WILL APPROACH and TRADE THE MARKET THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\nI will answer this with one word…. CAREFULLY!\r\n\r\nI see no reason to change from last week, although I am looking for an equity failure and so AUD, NZD and CAD currencies should feature most.\r\n\r\nI have enough cross-rates in play or with limit orders in position, so I will not be adding much there.\r\n\r\nThe JPY should feature this week. I would prefer a spike higher on USD/JPY to sell into.\r\n\r\nThe EUR and GBP need pullbacks as far as I am concerned and if the equity markets correct these entries should be forthcoming.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>5.3.4. MY “MACRO” TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEK AHEAD:</u>\r\n\r\nMy action plan for the week is lighter than usual for obvious reasons: -\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>Establish a medium-term TRADE PLAN with the AUD following the RBA minutes.</li>\r\n 	<li>Formulate a strategy re EUR long and JPY short trades.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.4. CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.4.1. CURRENT LIVE TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/LIVE-TRADES-17022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10982\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/LIVE-TRADES-17022018-1024x1018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"1018\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u>5.4.2. CURRENT LIMIT ORDER TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/LIMIT-ORDERS-17022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10981\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/LIMIT-ORDERS-17022018-1024x840.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"840\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.6. FX BROKER NEWS and MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\nI am still being invited to “LIVE TRADING” webinars, and I took a couple, but they were not offering much by the way of insightful news or opinions.\r\n\r\nI mentioned a while back that special offers were being used to increase market share, possibly from a small sized cake! Here is an example from RAKUTEN (AUS) that I received via email earlier this week. I no longer trade with AVA TRADE and never used ADMIRAL MARKETS or XM. I have had repeated offers from these brokers over the past two weeks or so.\r\n\r\nI think that times are hard for brokers…\r\n\r\n<strong><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/RAKUTEN-FX-17022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10980\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/RAKUTEN-FX-17022018-728x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"728\" height=\"1024\" /></a> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><strong>THE FINAL SHOT:</strong><strong> </strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @ThePremService\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #166 PREMIUM SERVICE\r\nDATE: 17th February 2018','I THINK OIL IS ABOUT TO HEAD MUCH LOWER ONCE AGAIN','','publish','open','closed','','think-oil-head-much-lower','','','2018-02-17 09:54:51','2018-02-17 14:54:51','',0,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?post_type=member_posts&#038;p=10999',0,'member_posts','',0),(11052,1,'2018-02-28 15:51:21','2018-02-28 20:51:21','<h4>Radar Trades Archives:</h4>\r\n<section class=\"clearfix\">\r\n<div class=\"one-half first\">\r\n<h2>This Month<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/RADAR-28022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-11036\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/RADAR-28022018-755x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"755\" height=\"1024\" /></a></h2>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"one-half\">\r\n<h2>Year to date<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/RADAR-YTDFEB2018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-11037\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/RADAR-YTDFEB2018-753x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"753\" height=\"1024\" /></a></h2>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<h2>PREVIOUS YEARS</h2>\r\n<h2><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/RADAR-COMPLETE-2017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-10712\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/RADAR-COMPLETE-2017.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"866\" height=\"954\" /></a></h2>\r\n<h2></h2>\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-8807\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/RADAR-2016-COMPLETE.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"856\" height=\"938\" />\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/RADAR-2015-COMP-copy.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-10670\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/RADAR-2015-COMP-copy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"429\" height=\"449\" /></a><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/radar-trades/radar-2015-comp/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-6985\">\r\n</a>\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/RADAR-2014-COMPLETE.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-8858\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/RADAR-2014-COMPLETE.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"489\" height=\"487\" /></a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</section>','Radar Trades','','inherit','closed','closed','','2524-revision-v1','','','2018-02-28 15:51:21','2018-02-28 20:51:21','',2524,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/2524-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(11055,1,'2018-02-28 15:54:37','2018-02-28 20:54:37','<h4>POSITION TRADES Archives:</h4>\r\n<section class=\"clearfix\">\r\n<div class=\"one-half first\">\r\n<h2>This Month<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/POS1-28022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-11043\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/POS1-28022018-781x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"781\" height=\"1024\" /></a><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/POS2-28022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-11044\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/POS2-28022018-781x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"781\" height=\"1024\" /></a><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/POS3-28022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-11045\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/POS3-28022018-760x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"760\" height=\"1024\" /></a></h2>\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/POS1-19112016.png\">\r\n</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"one-half\">\r\n<h2>Year to date<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/POS-YTDFEB2018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-11046\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/POS-YTDFEB2018-757x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"757\" height=\"1024\" /></a></h2>\r\n<h2>PREVIOUS YEARS</h2>\r\n<h2><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/POSITION-COMPLETE-2017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-10714\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/POSITION-COMPLETE-2017.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"820\" height=\"946\" /></a></h2>\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/POS-2016-COMPLETE.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-8814\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/POS-2016-COMPLETE.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"816\" height=\"946\" /></a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</section>','POSITION TRADES','','inherit','closed','closed','','6965-revision-v1','','','2018-02-28 15:54:37','2018-02-28 20:54:37','',6965,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/6965-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(10886,1,'2018-01-27 11:40:36','2018-01-27 16:40:36','&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE FIRST SHOT:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nWelcome to the new look FREE NEWSLETTER version of the WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU blog.\r\n\r\nIt is now more compact befitting a complimentary version of my market commentary blog post.\r\n\r\nIf you would like a more detailed commentary of my market thoughts, views, including my suggested trade set ups you will need to subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE. This leads nicely into my subscriber promotion which ends this coming Wednesday at 5PM EST.\r\n\r\n“BUY ONE GET ONE FREE”\r\n\r\nWith a new trading year just started, there is another target of 10,000 pips for me to beat in 2018. I have launched a PREMIUM SERVICE promotion called, “BUY ONE GET ONE FREE”.\r\n\r\nThe details of the “BUY ONE GET ONE FREE” promotion can be found on my home page under the TAB “PROMOTIONS”.\r\n\r\nI would point out that with the PROMOTION for CAD$800.00 you will have a one year’s complete subscription and hopefully be part of the 10,000 pips haul this year.\r\n\r\nSo far this year before the first month has completed the pips total to date is <strong><u>1,453</u></strong>. This represents more than 14% of the annual objective!\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong> MARKET OVERVIEW – MY THOUGHTS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">FEAR, GREED &amp; FOMO but watch JPY</span>\r\n</strong></p>\r\nWhere to start?\r\n\r\nSince starting to write FX related blogs in 2011, many people have said it’s all about the title, be out there, grab potential readers by the balls, give them a hook. I can guarantee you that this works. The two most read blogs since 2011 being the recent: -\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">“OOPS I DID IT AGAIN…TRUMP SENDS THE USD DOWN THE SH*THOLE”\r\nfollowed closely by\r\n“MERKEL GRABS DRAGHI BY THE TESTICLES”</p>\r\nWhilst both of these blogs had extreme titles that sucked in potential readers they also had valid FX points I wanted to get across.\r\n\r\nWhere am I going?\r\n\r\nIn this new format, I will use this section to make readers who are not subscribers think maybe this guy has ideas, thoughts, beliefs, and views and is a bit outside the box.\r\n\r\nHere we go…\r\n\r\nMario Draghi’s “BIG DAY OUT” came and went last Thursday. He was on somewhat of a “MISSION IMPOSSIBLE”, on the basis that, faced with improving economic data in the EUROZONE, he was on very thin ice, in any attempts he thought he may have had of trying, to jawbone the single currency lower.\r\n\r\nBeing fair to Draghi, he said what he could have said without sounding too accommodative. The market did its own thing. Despite what was said, or what was handed out as copy of the statement, the market knows best. The basics of FEAR &amp; GREED in FX are being displayed every second, of every minute, of every hour of every trading day.\r\n\r\nWe have had a FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) markets in equities for some time. The “BUY THE DIP” mentality is so entrenched in Wall Street, there are people working across the floors and in front of terminals who do not know about or have not worked in two-way markets. They have only read about it in books or heard about it in pubs on a Friday night when some old fecker talks about the good old days.\r\n\r\nFX now has FOMO.\r\n\r\nThe constant USD selling has been insatiable. Going back to my economics days with regards to the indifference curve. We do not have a rationality in the market place and we have reached a state of non-satiety, which basically means the consumer cannot get enough of something even though it is over-supplied. In FX terms the USD. There is so much available the FOMO effect is like a rash.\r\n\r\nWe saw it in evidence after Draghi last Thursday.\r\n\r\nGoing backwards 24 hours pre- Draghi, U.S. Secretary Mnuchin basically, stated that he was in favour of a weaker USD, the markets loved it, sell more USD, sell more USD, it was a feeding frenzy at the zoo. Bit of a fu*k up from Mnuchin, these are things as U.S. Secretary to the Treasury you think and want but one keeps one’s gob shut.\r\n\r\nAfter Draghi, 24 hours after Mnuchin’s comments, TRUMP went on CNBC and said that he was misinterpreted and that he (TRUMP) was in favour of a strong dollar and that it would get stronger. Thank God smelly vision has not yet been invented. Someone in CNBC should have been dialing 911 or 999 as the president’s knickers were burning on the back of this statement.\r\n\r\nThe upshot of this was a 2-3 hour USD rally, a huge snap back 200-250 pips in some cases. Then the market traits of FEAR and GREED took over once again and the FOMO effect kicked in.\r\n\r\nHowever, the USD gains were reversed in the next two trading sessions in Asia and Europe, by the time US traders came back to their seats the USD gains were wiped clean.\r\n\r\nHow do you trade in a FOMO market?\r\n\r\nI am NOT a scalper. I am NOT a short-term trader, but from time to time I will dabble, with mixed results.\r\n\r\nIf you are in a position and the train leaves the station stay on board, getting off really means from my TRADE PLAN that you can’t get back on, because we do not get pullbacks of any meaning, because they are very shallow. From a Fibonacci perspective a minimum in my TRADE PLAN is 38%. We do not even see a 23.6% pullback in these FOMO markets at the moment.\r\n\r\nIn my view, without sounding like a DRAMA QUEEN, jumping on board with some of these trades without a plan using or strategic entry is just gambling.\r\n\r\nIt is a pure one-way market, but with experience I know that the snap back could happen at any time and when it does it will be vicious, screen time has taught me this lesson. One requires patience.\r\n\r\nOne always looks for a catalyst of some sort. FX INTERVENTION, A CENTRAL BANK POLICY CHANGE or maybe A SELL OFF IN STOCKS.\r\n\r\nMy money is on the final one listed. Correlations in markets matter and they do count.\r\n\r\nThe JPY is NOT playing ball at the moment. As the US equities rise the USD/JPY should weaken, it’s getting stronger. It is also not reacting to US treasury yields either.\r\n\r\nLast Friday the DOW, S&amp;P and NASDAQ were posting record closes once again, OIL was a little elevated, metals were negative and US 10YR yields were up again.\r\n\r\nThe USD/JPY posted another low now sitting below 109.00.\r\n\r\nCan you imagine what is going to happen to the JPY when there is alleged bad news in the markets if it cannot go up when times are good?\r\n\r\nThe USD/JPY has 105.00 written all over it if we get a major, major sell-off and if FEAR, GREED &amp; FOMO take effect maybe even lower.\r\n\r\nI know that may FX traders are gamblers, you win some, you lose some. But being patient and having a PLAN a STRATEGY also works and this can be done without as much RISK.\r\n\r\nMake absolutely no mistake these moves are just crazy and in 10 years of trading I have never seen anything like it.\r\n\r\nWhat to do now?\r\n\r\nI have talked about the USD/JPY. The EUR/USD is heading higher, I think that we all get that, but it will NOT be a straight line move.\r\n\r\nTherefore, the EUR/USD and probably many of the EUR cross rates pairs are “BUY ON THE DIPS” opportunities.\r\n\r\nI think that we will have, or let me say, we SHOULD HAVE a period of consolidation. Recent moves have been crazy in the USD majors. It has been a one-sided market, impossible to enter on pullbacks. To me, consolidation makes absolute sense.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>USD SUPPORT and RESISTANCE with my BIAS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/TCHART-27012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10865\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/TCHART-27012018-1024x890.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"890\" /></a> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE PREMIUM SERVICE TRADING SUMMARY:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nPREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:\r\n(Incorporating the last 5 PREMIUM SERVICE TRADES)\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/PREM-SERV-LAST5-27012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10864\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/PREM-SERV-LAST5-27012018-1024x854.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"854\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS:</span>\r\n</strong>(This section is for PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS ONLY)</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>\r\nTHE BLOG CHANGES and WHY:</u>\r\n\r\nThe FREE NEWSLETTER is now STRIPPED.\r\n\r\nThe reason for this is very simply time. The production time to research, complete, verify and publish had become a very time-consuming affair taking up huge amounts of time on Fridays and Saturdays. If I were to place a total time from beginning to end per blog I would think in the region of 8-9 hours a weekend.\r\n\r\nBasically, it’s too much time and the changes needed to be made.\r\n\r\nI have removed Chart patterns, thoughts on the market, looking backwards and forwards, my thoughts on how to trade this coming week, together with the USD major charts and currency pair thoughts because PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers receive all of these through the week as it progresses. Therefore, it was duplication of effort.\r\n\r\nThe Economic Data and the looking forward items fits better with subscribers only and so they have moved into the subscribers only area.\r\n\r\nThis revised version will, I hope, free up more time to focus on analyst reports and more chart analysis, which benefits all of us.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.1. TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\nThe net pip total so far for 2018 = <strong>1,453 pips.<u>\r\n</u></strong>\r\n\r\nWith this high total of pips, you may find this next statement a little confusing. This market is very hard to trade, very hard to follow, very hard to fathom and most of all bloody difficult to understand many of the moves that have taken place especially in the last two weeks or so.\r\n\r\nOne of my three goals last week was to set up JPY POSITION trades. The BOJ has committed to being DOVISH to basically infinity and possibly beyond!\r\n\r\nAs you know Central Bank Monetary Policy is a pre-requisite to my directional longer-term trades through POSITION trade set ups and therefore JPY trades will not apply. However, I am looking at several fundamental factors still such as: -\r\n\r\nPersistent USD selling (weakness)\r\nU.S. Bond Yields\r\nPrecious Metals\r\nOil\r\nCentral Bank Monetary Policy\r\nEquity Prices\r\nInter-Market correlations\r\n\r\nThe USD/JPY has NOT correlated with Bond Yields / Equities, so I am assuming that when (and they will at some time) change direction the USD/JPY is going to have a “BAD DAY” at the office. If Sentiment and Fundamentals really change the USD/JPY back at 100.00 is NOT out of the question in my opinion.\r\n\r\nSo, the JPY is still on my RADAR just not with a series of POSITION TRADES.\r\n\r\nI will review the EUR to the long side and start to place EUR related trades following Mario Draghi’s Press Conference\r\n\r\nSuccesses last week were mainly from cross rates once again. Keeping away as far as possible from USD related trades is the way to go. It is hard because that is where liquidity and two-way action lies but it is a success to keep moving with.\r\n\r\nThis market has been so one-sided these past couple of weeks or so that when the consolidation period starts it will hopefully bring both buyers and sellers out to play at the same time.\r\n\r\nThe TRUMP move last Thursday sending the USD higher was impressive but the DXY sell-off thru the Asian and European sessions was scary. All the previous daily closing candles ignored. It just showed how much core momentum is in the market to drive the DXY lower. Despite TRUMP intervention, the desire to hold USD is non-existent. When you add the FED Monetary Policy into the mix, it is hard to comprehend given the positions of the BOJ and ECB.\r\n\r\nI have found myself sidelined a great deal, basically just clocking up “screen time”. Opportunities that meet my TRADE PLAN are fewer. Patience really is a virtue in FX. Trading sure is fun!\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>5.2. SENTIMENT,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:\r\n</u>\r\n\r\nFrom a strategy perspective I am clear on what I want to focus on for the remainder of Q1 and into Q2, beyond that it gets a wee bit fuzzy.\r\n\r\nLet me clarify: -\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>I am still fundamentally a seller of NZD and CAD currencies. I see this as a trade for most of 2018</li>\r\n 	<li>I will start building JPY trades around JPY strength based on factors outlined above in section 5.1. Will these last beyond Q2?</li>\r\n 	<li>I will start to build long EUR trades. This is a difficult one time wise given the fact that the ECB policy should at some stage curtail the long EUR trade enthusiasm that seems to have covered the FX market like a rash of late.</li>\r\n 	<li>Once I can see the BREXIT negotiations moving forward I will add more GBP trades in Q2 and Q3. I do see a 1.5000 objective. By the time I participate with GBP/USD will be soon be there, but I am benefitting from cross rate trades at the moment.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nCAUTION: We have seen some monster moves recently based off USD weakness; i.e. a 600 pip move higher in cable. These huge pip moves were similar with EUR and AUD as well.\r\n\r\nThese huge price moves have to both consolidate and re-trace and these will be the basis of many entries that I have in mind for POSITION TRADES, but first I need to note the high levels from where to plot my retracements. This is one reason why there are no LIMIT ORDERS in position at the moment.\r\n\r\nA massive amount of chart analysis completed last weekend was dumped as I did NOT get what I wanted from the market. This is the nature of the beast, but it is very frustrating.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/SENTIMENT-27012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10866\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/SENTIMENT-27012018-780x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"780\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.3. THE WEEK AHEAD:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.1. ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES THAT INTEREST ME:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/ECON-DATA-27012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10884\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/ECON-DATA-27012018-1024x922.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"922\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.2. MY KEY EVENTS ON THIS WEEK’S CALENDAR:</u>\r\n\r\nIn no particular order: -.\r\n\r\n<u>GBP - CARNEY:</u> It is always fun, never a dull moment to watch Carney in action. He has recently made comments outside of his job scope vis-à-vis the UK falling behind, economically and having its voice heard in financial markets post BREXIT. That would have gone down really well in the CITY. Whilst it is impossible to predict a POST BREXIT UK and how it will operate. I think that it is a pretty safe bet given its position that the UK will remain a world financial centre. Let’s see what he says. Hopefully he will have his JCB close by his side.\r\n\r\n<u>CAD – GDP:</u> This will be a real indicator albeit backward looking as to whether the BOC will face reality and start factoring in more interest rate hikes. Stephen Poloz has stated that the BOC is DATA DEPENDENT only.\r\n\r\n<u>USD – CONSUMER CONFIDENCE:</u>  I am not that fussed about US employment data and the FOMC for Janet Yellen’s last statement. I am more interested in the U.S. man and woman on the street. Are they spending money? It is the enthusiasm Wall Street based or has it filtered down to Main Street as well?\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.3. HOW I WILL APPROACH and TRADE THE MARKET THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\nThis coming week, we have US employment data and the FED (FOMC). These events will gather all the headlines, plus TRUMP’S STATE OF THE NATION ADDRESS, which will be loved by Republicans and hated by Democrats. There’s is a prediction for you!\r\n\r\nI am expecting consolidation this week, at least in the early part of the week. It will great to see if we can achieve market moves of economic data this week and news headlines for a change.\r\n\r\nMy micro and macro approach this week will be the JPY. I know this will please my two Asian groups who applaud when I put out a JPY set up!\r\n\r\nDo NOT expect a vast quantity of set ups, I do not like spreading myself thin in a week that contains NFP.\r\n\r\nTrade sizes will remain smaller and my primary focus will be JPY and CAD pairs.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>5.3.4. MY “MACRO” TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEK AHEAD:</u>\r\n\r\nMy action plan for the week is: -\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>Prepare and post out as many of my longer-term POSITION TRADE limit orders in the early stages of the week, markets permitting.</li>\r\n 	<li>Add EUR long into my TRADE PLAN strategy following the ECB this Thursday.</li>\r\n 	<li>Continue to coordinate my strategy into my TRADE PLAN vis-à-vis the JPY. This is now very much a tradable currency in 2018. For me it is similar to Lazarus coming back from the dead.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.4 SUMMARY - LONG TERM CORE TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/LT-CORE-POS-20012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10859\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/LT-CORE-POS-20012018-1024x951.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"951\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.5. CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.5.1. CURRENT LIVE TRADES:\r\n\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/LIVE-TRADES-27012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10867\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/LIVE-TRADES-27012018-1024x1017.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"1017\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u>5.5.2. CURRENT LIMIT ORDER TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\nThere are zero at the moment.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.6. FX BROKER NEWS and MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\nNothing to add here. They were all very quiet last week, with me anyhow.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE FINAL SHOT:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\n\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @ThePremService\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #163 PREMIUM SERVICE\r\nDATE: 27th January 2018','FEAR, GREED & FOMO but watch JPY','','inherit','closed','closed','','10885-revision-v1','','','2018-01-27 11:40:36','2018-01-27 16:40:36','',10885,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/10885-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(10887,1,'2018-01-27 11:56:13','2018-01-27 16:56:13','&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE FIRST SHOT:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nWelcome to the new look FREE NEWSLETTER version of the WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU blog.\r\n\r\nIt is now more compact befitting a complimentary version of my market commentary blog post.\r\n\r\nIf you would like a more detailed commentary of my market thoughts, views, including my suggested trade set ups you will need to subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE. This leads nicely into my subscriber promotion which ends this coming Wednesday at 5PM EST.\r\n\r\n“BUY ONE GET ONE FREE”\r\n\r\nWith a new trading year just started, there is another target of 10,000 pips for me to beat in 2018. I have launched a PREMIUM SERVICE promotion called, “BUY ONE GET ONE FREE”.\r\n\r\nThe details of the “BUY ONE GET ONE FREE” promotion can be found on my home page under the TAB “PROMOTIONS”.\r\n\r\nI would point out that with the PROMOTION for CAD$800.00 you will have a one year’s complete subscription and hopefully be part of the 10,000 pips haul this year.\r\n\r\nSo far this year before the first month has completed the pips total to date is <strong><u>1,453</u></strong>. This represents more than 14% of the annual objective!\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong> MARKET OVERVIEW – MY THOUGHTS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">FEAR, GREED &amp; FOMO but watch JPY</span>\r\n\r\n</strong></p>\r\nWhere to start?\r\n\r\nSince starting to write FX related blogs in 2011, many people have said it’s all about the title, be out there, grab potential readers by the balls, give them a hook. I can guarantee you that this works. The two most read blogs since 2011 being the recent: -\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">“OOPS I DID IT AGAIN…TRUMP SENDS THE USD DOWN THE SH*THOLE”\r\nfollowed closely by\r\n“MERKEL GRABS DRAGHI BY THE TESTICLES”</p>\r\nWhilst both of these blogs had extreme titles that sucked in potential readers they also had valid FX points I wanted to get across.\r\n\r\nWhere am I going?\r\n\r\nIn this new format, I will use this section to make readers who are not subscribers think maybe this guy has ideas, thoughts, beliefs, and views and is a bit outside the box.\r\n\r\nHere we go…\r\n\r\nMario Draghi’s “BIG DAY OUT” came and went last Thursday. He was on somewhat of a “MISSION IMPOSSIBLE”, on the basis that, faced with improving economic data in the EUROZONE, he was on very thin ice, in any attempts he thought he may have had of trying, to jawbone the single currency lower.\r\n\r\nBeing fair to Draghi, he said what he could have said without sounding too accommodative. The market did its own thing. Despite what was said, or what was handed out as copy of the statement, the market knows best. The basics of FEAR &amp; GREED in FX are being displayed every second, of every minute, of every hour of every trading day.\r\n\r\nWe have had a FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) markets in equities for some time. The “BUY THE DIP” mentality is so entrenched in Wall Street, there are people working across the floors and in front of terminals who do not know about or have not worked in two-way markets. They have only read about it in books or heard about it in pubs on a Friday night when some old fecker talks about the good old days.\r\n\r\nFX now has FOMO.\r\n\r\nThe constant USD selling has been insatiable. Going back to my economics days with regards to the indifference curve. We do not have a rationality in the market place and we have reached a state of non-satiety, which basically means the consumer cannot get enough of something even though it is over-supplied. In FX terms the USD. There is so much available the FOMO effect is like a rash.\r\n\r\nWe saw it in evidence after Draghi last Thursday.\r\n\r\nGoing backwards 24 hours pre- Draghi, U.S. Secretary Mnuchin basically, stated that he was in favour of a weaker USD, the markets loved it, sell more USD, sell more USD, it was a feeding frenzy at the zoo. Bit of a fu*k up from Mnuchin, these are things as U.S. Secretary to the Treasury you think and want but one keeps one’s gob shut.\r\n\r\nAfter Draghi, 24 hours after Mnuchin’s comments, TRUMP went on CNBC and said that he was misinterpreted and that he (TRUMP) was in favour of a strong dollar and that it would get stronger. Thank God smelly vision has not yet been invented. Someone in CNBC should have been dialing 911 or 999 as the president’s knickers were burning on the back of this statement.\r\n\r\nThe upshot of this was a 2-3 hour USD rally, a huge snap back 200-250 pips in some cases. Then the market traits of FEAR and GREED took over once again and the FOMO effect kicked in.\r\n\r\nHowever, the USD gains were reversed in the next two trading sessions in Asia and Europe, by the time US traders came back to their seats the USD gains were wiped clean.\r\n\r\nHow do you trade in a FOMO market?\r\n\r\nI am NOT a scalper. I am NOT a short-term trader, but from time to time I will dabble, with mixed results.\r\n\r\nIf you are in a position and the train leaves the station stay on board, getting off really means from my TRADE PLAN that you can’t get back on, because we do not get pullbacks of any meaning, because they are very shallow. From a Fibonacci perspective a minimum in my TRADE PLAN is 38%. We do not even see a 23.6% pullback in these FOMO markets at the moment.\r\n\r\nIn my view, without sounding like a DRAMA QUEEN, jumping on board with some of these trades without a plan using or strategic entry is just gambling.\r\n\r\nIt is a pure one-way market, but with experience I know that the snap back could happen at any time and when it does it will be vicious, screen time has taught me this lesson. One requires patience.\r\n\r\nOne always looks for a catalyst of some sort. FX INTERVENTION, A CENTRAL BANK POLICY CHANGE or maybe A SELL OFF IN STOCKS.\r\n\r\nMy money is on the final one listed. Correlations in markets matter and they do count.\r\n\r\nThe JPY is NOT playing ball at the moment. As the US equities rise the USD/JPY should weaken, it’s getting stronger. It is also not reacting to US treasury yields either.\r\n\r\nLast Friday the DOW, S&amp;P and NASDAQ were posting record closes once again, OIL was a little elevated, metals were negative and US 10YR yields were up again.\r\n\r\nThe USD/JPY posted another low now sitting below 109.00.\r\n\r\nCan you imagine what is going to happen to the JPY when there is alleged bad news in the markets if it cannot go up when times are good?\r\n\r\nThe USD/JPY has 105.00 written all over it if we get a major, major sell-off and if FEAR, GREED &amp; FOMO take effect maybe even lower.\r\n\r\nI know that may FX traders are gamblers, you win some, you lose some. But being patient and having a PLAN a STRATEGY also works and this can be done without as much RISK.\r\n\r\nMake absolutely no mistake these moves are just crazy and in 10 years of trading I have never seen anything like it.\r\n\r\nWhat to do now?\r\n\r\nI have talked about the USD/JPY. The EUR/USD is heading higher, I think that we all get that, but it will NOT be a straight line move.\r\n\r\nTherefore, the EUR/USD and probably many of the EUR cross rates pairs are “BUY ON THE DIPS” opportunities.\r\n\r\nI think that we will have, or let me say, we SHOULD HAVE a period of consolidation. Recent moves have been crazy in the USD majors. It has been a one-sided market, impossible to enter on pullbacks. To me, consolidation makes absolute sense.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>USD SUPPORT and RESISTANCE with my BIAS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/TCHART-27012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10865\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/TCHART-27012018-1024x890.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"890\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE PREMIUM SERVICE TRADING SUMMARY:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nPREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:\r\n(Incorporating the last 5 PREMIUM SERVICE TRADES)\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/PREM-SERV-LAST5-27012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10864\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/PREM-SERV-LAST5-27012018-1024x854.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"854\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS:</span>\r\n</strong>(This section is for PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS ONLY)</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5.1. TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.2. SENTIMENT,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3. THE WEEK AHEAD:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.1. ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES THAT INTEREST ME:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.2. MY KEY EVENTS ON THIS WEEK’S CALENDAR:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.3. HOW I WILL APPROACH and TRADE THE MARKET THIS WEEK:\r\n\r\n</u><u> </u><u>5.3.4. MY “MACRO” TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEK AHEAD:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.4 SUMMARY - LONG TERM CORE TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.5. CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.5.1. CURRENT LIVE TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.5.2. CURRENT LIMIT ORDER TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.6. FX BROKER NEWS and MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE FINAL SHOT:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\n\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #267 FREE NEWSLETTER\r\nDATE: 27th January 2018','FEAR, GREED & FOMO but watch JPY','','publish','open','closed','','fear-greed-fomo-watch-jpy','','','2018-01-27 11:56:13','2018-01-27 16:56:13','',0,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?p=10887',0,'post','',0),(10888,1,'2018-01-27 11:56:13','2018-01-27 16:56:13','&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE FIRST SHOT:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nWelcome to the new look FREE NEWSLETTER version of the WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU blog.\r\n\r\nIt is now more compact befitting a complimentary version of my market commentary blog post.\r\n\r\nIf you would like a more detailed commentary of my market thoughts, views, including my suggested trade set ups you will need to subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE. This leads nicely into my subscriber promotion which ends this coming Wednesday at 5PM EST.\r\n\r\n“BUY ONE GET ONE FREE”\r\n\r\nWith a new trading year just started, there is another target of 10,000 pips for me to beat in 2018. I have launched a PREMIUM SERVICE promotion called, “BUY ONE GET ONE FREE”.\r\n\r\nThe details of the “BUY ONE GET ONE FREE” promotion can be found on my home page under the TAB “PROMOTIONS”.\r\n\r\nI would point out that with the PROMOTION for CAD$800.00 you will have a one year’s complete subscription and hopefully be part of the 10,000 pips haul this year.\r\n\r\nSo far this year before the first month has completed the pips total to date is <strong><u>1,453</u></strong>. This represents more than 14% of the annual objective!\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong> MARKET OVERVIEW – MY THOUGHTS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">FEAR, GREED &amp; FOMO but watch JPY</span>\r\n\r\n</strong></p>\r\nWhere to start?\r\n\r\nSince starting to write FX related blogs in 2011, many people have said it’s all about the title, be out there, grab potential readers by the balls, give them a hook. I can guarantee you that this works. The two most read blogs since 2011 being the recent: -\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">“OOPS I DID IT AGAIN…TRUMP SENDS THE USD DOWN THE SH*THOLE”\r\nfollowed closely by\r\n“MERKEL GRABS DRAGHI BY THE TESTICLES”</p>\r\nWhilst both of these blogs had extreme titles that sucked in potential readers they also had valid FX points I wanted to get across.\r\n\r\nWhere am I going?\r\n\r\nIn this new format, I will use this section to make readers who are not subscribers think maybe this guy has ideas, thoughts, beliefs, and views and is a bit outside the box.\r\n\r\nHere we go…\r\n\r\nMario Draghi’s “BIG DAY OUT” came and went last Thursday. He was on somewhat of a “MISSION IMPOSSIBLE”, on the basis that, faced with improving economic data in the EUROZONE, he was on very thin ice, in any attempts he thought he may have had of trying, to jawbone the single currency lower.\r\n\r\nBeing fair to Draghi, he said what he could have said without sounding too accommodative. The market did its own thing. Despite what was said, or what was handed out as copy of the statement, the market knows best. The basics of FEAR &amp; GREED in FX are being displayed every second, of every minute, of every hour of every trading day.\r\n\r\nWe have had a FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) markets in equities for some time. The “BUY THE DIP” mentality is so entrenched in Wall Street, there are people working across the floors and in front of terminals who do not know about or have not worked in two-way markets. They have only read about it in books or heard about it in pubs on a Friday night when some old fecker talks about the good old days.\r\n\r\nFX now has FOMO.\r\n\r\nThe constant USD selling has been insatiable. Going back to my economics days with regards to the indifference curve. We do not have a rationality in the market place and we have reached a state of non-satiety, which basically means the consumer cannot get enough of something even though it is over-supplied. In FX terms the USD. There is so much available the FOMO effect is like a rash.\r\n\r\nWe saw it in evidence after Draghi last Thursday.\r\n\r\nGoing backwards 24 hours pre- Draghi, U.S. Secretary Mnuchin basically, stated that he was in favour of a weaker USD, the markets loved it, sell more USD, sell more USD, it was a feeding frenzy at the zoo. Bit of a fu*k up from Mnuchin, these are things as U.S. Secretary to the Treasury you think and want but one keeps one’s gob shut.\r\n\r\nAfter Draghi, 24 hours after Mnuchin’s comments, TRUMP went on CNBC and said that he was misinterpreted and that he (TRUMP) was in favour of a strong dollar and that it would get stronger. Thank God smelly vision has not yet been invented. Someone in CNBC should have been dialing 911 or 999 as the president’s knickers were burning on the back of this statement.\r\n\r\nThe upshot of this was a 2-3 hour USD rally, a huge snap back 200-250 pips in some cases. Then the market traits of FEAR and GREED took over once again and the FOMO effect kicked in.\r\n\r\nHowever, the USD gains were reversed in the next two trading sessions in Asia and Europe, by the time US traders came back to their seats the USD gains were wiped clean.\r\n\r\nHow do you trade in a FOMO market?\r\n\r\nI am NOT a scalper. I am NOT a short-term trader, but from time to time I will dabble, with mixed results.\r\n\r\nIf you are in a position and the train leaves the station stay on board, getting off really means from my TRADE PLAN that you can’t get back on, because we do not get pullbacks of any meaning, because they are very shallow. From a Fibonacci perspective a minimum in my TRADE PLAN is 38%. We do not even see a 23.6% pullback in these FOMO markets at the moment.\r\n\r\nIn my view, without sounding like a DRAMA QUEEN, jumping on board with some of these trades without a plan using or strategic entry is just gambling.\r\n\r\nIt is a pure one-way market, but with experience I know that the snap back could happen at any time and when it does it will be vicious, screen time has taught me this lesson. One requires patience.\r\n\r\nOne always looks for a catalyst of some sort. FX INTERVENTION, A CENTRAL BANK POLICY CHANGE or maybe A SELL OFF IN STOCKS.\r\n\r\nMy money is on the final one listed. Correlations in markets matter and they do count.\r\n\r\nThe JPY is NOT playing ball at the moment. As the US equities rise the USD/JPY should weaken, it’s getting stronger. It is also not reacting to US treasury yields either.\r\n\r\nLast Friday the DOW, S&amp;P and NASDAQ were posting record closes once again, OIL was a little elevated, metals were negative and US 10YR yields were up again.\r\n\r\nThe USD/JPY posted another low now sitting below 109.00.\r\n\r\nCan you imagine what is going to happen to the JPY when there is alleged bad news in the markets if it cannot go up when times are good?\r\n\r\nThe USD/JPY has 105.00 written all over it if we get a major, major sell-off and if FEAR, GREED &amp; FOMO take effect maybe even lower.\r\n\r\nI know that may FX traders are gamblers, you win some, you lose some. But being patient and having a PLAN a STRATEGY also works and this can be done without as much RISK.\r\n\r\nMake absolutely no mistake these moves are just crazy and in 10 years of trading I have never seen anything like it.\r\n\r\nWhat to do now?\r\n\r\nI have talked about the USD/JPY. The EUR/USD is heading higher, I think that we all get that, but it will NOT be a straight line move.\r\n\r\nTherefore, the EUR/USD and probably many of the EUR cross rates pairs are “BUY ON THE DIPS” opportunities.\r\n\r\nI think that we will have, or let me say, we SHOULD HAVE a period of consolidation. Recent moves have been crazy in the USD majors. It has been a one-sided market, impossible to enter on pullbacks. To me, consolidation makes absolute sense.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>USD SUPPORT and RESISTANCE with my BIAS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/TCHART-27012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10865\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/TCHART-27012018-1024x890.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"890\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE PREMIUM SERVICE TRADING SUMMARY:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nPREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:\r\n(Incorporating the last 5 PREMIUM SERVICE TRADES)\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/PREM-SERV-LAST5-27012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10864\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/PREM-SERV-LAST5-27012018-1024x854.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"854\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS:</span>\r\n</strong>(This section is for PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS ONLY)</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5.1. TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.2. SENTIMENT,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3. THE WEEK AHEAD:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.1. ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES THAT INTEREST ME:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.2. MY KEY EVENTS ON THIS WEEK’S CALENDAR:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.3. HOW I WILL APPROACH and TRADE THE MARKET THIS WEEK:\r\n\r\n</u><u> </u><u>5.3.4. MY “MACRO” TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEK AHEAD:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.4 SUMMARY - LONG TERM CORE TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.5. CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.5.1. CURRENT LIVE TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.5.2. CURRENT LIMIT ORDER TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.6. FX BROKER NEWS and MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE FINAL SHOT:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\n\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #267 FREE NEWSLETTER\r\nDATE: 27th January 2018','FEAR, GREED & FOMO but watch JPY','','inherit','closed','closed','','10887-revision-v1','','','2018-01-27 11:56:13','2018-01-27 16:56:13','',10887,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/10887-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(10889,1,'2018-01-27 15:12:06','2018-01-27 20:12:06','The PREMIUM SERVICE promotion “BUY ONE GET ONE FREE” ends in just a few days on 31st January 2018 at 5PM EST.\r\n\r\nMy trading started this year with gusto on the 8th January.\r\n\r\nHad you subscribed for 6 months at CAD$800.00 because of the promotion you would have your subscription doubled for the year.\r\n\r\nMy annual target for net pips from PREMIUM SERVICE trades is 10,000 pips. Each year since the launch of the PREMIUM SERVICE this target has been achieved:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>2014 – 11,209 pips</li>\r\n 	<li>2015 – 10,686 pips</li>\r\n 	<li>2016 -  13,575 pips</li>\r\n 	<li>2017 – 12,220 pips</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThis year, from the 8th of January until yesterday’s (26th January) weekly close, the amount of pips generated by the PREMIUM SERVICE totaled <strong>1,453 pips.</strong><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nIf you look at the excel sheet below which, covers 2018 so far.\r\n\r\nHere are some points to note:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>ALL trade results are based off single lot trades.\r\nI measure in USD and ALL my broker accounts are in USD.MICRO LOTS = $0.10 cents\r\nMINI LOTS = $1.00\r\nSTANDARD LOTS = $10.00</li>\r\n 	<li>I will use the column MINI LOTS which in USD cost $1.00 per trade an example but you can factor up or down for MICRO or STANDARD lot trades.</li>\r\n 	<li>From 59 total trades completed. Had you traded them all with me with the same parameters as myself, you would have generated $1,453.00, which at $1.00 per trade = 1,453.00 pips.</li>\r\n 	<li>The cost of placing 59 trades at $1.00 each = $59.00.</li>\r\n 	<li>Your net position in your trading account would have therefore increased by $1,394.00.</li>\r\n 	<li>Taking into consideration the overall position. You would have generated $1,394.00 in income which would have covered you CAD$800.00 subscription roughly USD$650.00 already.This means that the rest of the year is FREE &amp; CLEAR profits.</li>\r\n 	<li>If were either a MINI or STANDARD lot trader your annual subscription under the “BUY ONE GET ONE FREE” promotion would have already been paid for in full with money still left over for your broker account to do with what you wish.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/PS-PROMO-27012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10891\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/PS-PROMO-27012018-929x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"929\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nI hope that this makes sense and that you could follow my pathway through the excel chart.\r\n\r\nIt is NOT too late. There are still 11 months of opportunities left this year!\r\n\r\nThe promotion ends on 31st January at 5PM EST.\r\n\r\nTo register: -\r\n\r\nGo to <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nWhen you sign up for either 6 or 12-month subscriptions, I will confirm the subscription period extensions to you in the welcome pack that you will receive within 24 hours of joining.\r\n\r\nIf you want more information about the PREMIUM SERVICE there is an abundance of information on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nI look forward to welcoming you,\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\n@pipaccumulator','THIS COULD HAVE BEEN YOU?','','publish','open','closed','','this-could-have-been-you','','','2018-01-31 07:45:38','2018-01-31 12:45:38','',0,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?p=10889',0,'post','',0),(10890,1,'2018-01-27 15:11:04','2018-01-27 20:11:04','The PREMIUM SERVICE promotion “BUY ONE GET ONE FREE” ends in just a few days on 31st January 2018 at 5PM EST.\r\n\r\nMy trading started this year with gusto on the 8th January.\r\n\r\nHad you subscribed for 6 months at CAD$800.00 because of the promotion you would have your subscription doubled for the year.\r\n\r\nMy annual target for net pips from PREMIUM SERVICE trades is 10,000 pips. Each year since the launch of the PREMIUM SERVICE this target has been achieved:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>2014 – 11,209 pips</li>\r\n 	<li>2015 – 10,686 pips</li>\r\n 	<li>2016 -  13,575 pips</li>\r\n 	<li>2017 – 12,220 pips</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThis year, from the 8th of January until yesterday’s (26th January) weekly close, the amount of pips generated by the PREMIUM SERVICE totaled <strong>1,453 pips.</strong><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nIf you look at the excel sheet below which, covers 2018 so far.\r\n\r\nHere are some points to note:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>ALL trade results are based off single lot trades.\r\nI measure in USD and ALL my broker accounts are in USD.\r\n\r\nMICRO LOTS = $0.10 cents\r\nMINI LOTS = $1.00\r\nSTANDARD LOTS = $10.00</li>\r\n 	<li>I will use the column MINI LOTS which in USD cost $1.00 per trade an example but you can factor up or down for MICRO or STANDARD lot trades.</li>\r\n 	<li>From 59 total trades completed. Had you traded them all with me with the same parameters as myself, you would have generated $1,453.00, which at $1.00 per trade = 1,453.00 pips.</li>\r\n 	<li>The cost of placing 59 trades at $1.00 each = $59.00.</li>\r\n 	<li>Your net position in your trading account would have therefore increased by $1,394.00.</li>\r\n 	<li>Taking into consideration the overall position. You would have generated $1,394.00 in income which would have covered you CAD$800.00 subscription roughly USD$650.00 already.\r\n\r\nThis means that the rest of the year is FREE &amp; CLEAR profits.</li>\r\n 	<li>If were either a MINI or STANDARD lot trader your annual subscription under the “BUY ONE GET ONE FREE” promotion would have already been paid for in full with money still left over for your broker account to do with what you wish.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n(INSERT EXCEL SPREADSHEET OF PERFORMANCE to 27.01.2018)\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nI hope that this makes sense and that you could follow my pathway through the excel chart.\r\n\r\nIt is NOT too late. There are still 11 months of opportunities left this year!\r\n\r\nThe promotion ends on 31st January at 5PM EST.\r\n\r\nTo register: -\r\n\r\nGo to <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nWhen you sign up for either 6 or 12-month subscriptions, I will confirm the subscription period extensions to you in the welcome pack that you will receive within 24 hours of joining.\r\n\r\nIf you want more information about the PREMIUM SERVICE there is an abundance of information on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nI look forward to welcoming you,\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\n@pipaccumulator','THIS COULD HAVE BEEN YOU?','','inherit','closed','closed','','10889-revision-v1','','','2018-01-27 15:11:04','2018-01-27 20:11:04','',10889,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/10889-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(10891,1,'2018-01-27 15:11:18','2018-01-27 20:11:18','','PS PROMO 27012018','','inherit','open','closed','','ps-promo-27012018','','','2018-01-27 15:11:42','2018-01-27 20:11:42','',10889,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/PS-PROMO-27012018.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(10892,1,'2018-01-27 15:12:06','2018-01-27 20:12:06','The PREMIUM SERVICE promotion “BUY ONE GET ONE FREE” ends in just a few days on 31st January 2018 at 5PM EST.\r\n\r\nMy trading started this year with gusto on the 8th January.\r\n\r\nHad you subscribed for 6 months at CAD$800.00 because of the promotion you would have your subscription doubled for the year.\r\n\r\nMy annual target for net pips from PREMIUM SERVICE trades is 10,000 pips. Each year since the launch of the PREMIUM SERVICE this target has been achieved:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>2014 – 11,209 pips</li>\r\n 	<li>2015 – 10,686 pips</li>\r\n 	<li>2016 -  13,575 pips</li>\r\n 	<li>2017 – 12,220 pips</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThis year, from the 8th of January until yesterday’s (26th January) weekly close, the amount of pips generated by the PREMIUM SERVICE totaled <strong>1,453 pips.</strong><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nIf you look at the excel sheet below which, covers 2018 so far.\r\n\r\nHere are some points to note:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>ALL trade results are based off single lot trades.\r\nI measure in USD and ALL my broker accounts are in USD.MICRO LOTS = $0.10 cents\r\nMINI LOTS = $1.00\r\nSTANDARD LOTS = $10.00</li>\r\n 	<li>I will use the column MINI LOTS which in USD cost $1.00 per trade an example but you can factor up or down for MICRO or STANDARD lot trades.</li>\r\n 	<li>From 59 total trades completed. Had you traded them all with me with the same parameters as myself, you would have generated $1,453.00, which at $1.00 per trade = 1,453.00 pips.</li>\r\n 	<li>The cost of placing 59 trades at $1.00 each = $59.00.</li>\r\n 	<li>Your net position in your trading account would have therefore increased by $1,394.00.</li>\r\n 	<li>Taking into consideration the overall position. You would have generated $1,394.00 in income which would have covered you CAD$800.00 subscription roughly USD$650.00 already.This means that the rest of the year is FREE &amp; CLEAR profits.</li>\r\n 	<li>If were either a MINI or STANDARD lot trader your annual subscription under the “BUY ONE GET ONE FREE” promotion would have already been paid for in full with money still left over for your broker account to do with what you wish.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/PS-PROMO-27012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10891\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/PS-PROMO-27012018-929x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"929\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nI hope that this makes sense and that you could follow my pathway through the excel chart.\r\n\r\nIt is NOT too late. There are still 11 months of opportunities left this year!\r\n\r\nThe promotion ends on 31st January at 5PM EST.\r\n\r\nTo register: -\r\n\r\nGo to <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nWhen you sign up for either 6 or 12-month subscriptions, I will confirm the subscription period extensions to you in the welcome pack that you will receive within 24 hours of joining.\r\n\r\nIf you want more information about the PREMIUM SERVICE there is an abundance of information on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nI look forward to welcoming you,\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\n@pipaccumulator','THIS COULD HAVE BEEN YOU?','','inherit','closed','closed','','10889-revision-v1','','','2018-01-27 15:12:06','2018-01-27 20:12:06','',10889,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/10889-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(10898,1,'2018-01-31 18:30:48','2018-01-31 23:30:48','','MOM JANYTD2018','','inherit','open','closed','','mom-janytd2018','','','2018-01-31 18:35:00','2018-01-31 23:35:00','',10540,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/MOM-JANYTD2018.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(10899,1,'2018-01-31 18:30:53','2018-01-31 23:30:53','','FUN1 31012018','','inherit','open','closed','','fun1-31012018','','','2018-01-31 18:35:43','2018-01-31 23:35:43','',3106,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/FUN1-31012018.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(10900,1,'2018-01-31 18:30:58','2018-01-31 23:30:58','','FUN2 31012018','','inherit','open','closed','','fun2-31012018','','','2018-01-31 18:35:52','2018-01-31 23:35:52','',3106,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/FUN2-31012018.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(10901,1,'2018-01-31 18:31:02','2018-01-31 23:31:02','','FUN JANYTD2018','','inherit','open','closed','','fun-janytd2018','','','2018-01-31 18:36:02','2018-01-31 23:36:02','',3106,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/FUN-JANYTD2018.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(10902,1,'2018-01-31 18:31:05','2018-01-31 23:31:05','','POS1 31012018','','inherit','open','closed','','pos1-31012018','','','2018-01-31 18:36:57','2018-01-31 23:36:57','',6965,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/POS1-31012018.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(10903,1,'2018-01-31 18:31:08','2018-01-31 23:31:08','','POS2 31012018','','inherit','open','closed','','pos2-31012018','','','2018-01-31 18:37:05','2018-01-31 23:37:05','',6965,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/POS2-31012018.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(10904,1,'2018-01-31 18:31:11','2018-01-31 23:31:11','','POS JANYTD2018','','inherit','open','closed','','pos-janytd2018','','','2018-01-31 18:37:18','2018-01-31 23:37:18','',6965,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/POS-JANYTD2018.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(10905,1,'2018-01-31 18:31:27','2018-01-31 23:31:27','','NET PS PERF JAN2018','','inherit','open','closed','','net-ps-perf-jan2018','','','2018-01-31 18:37:58','2018-01-31 23:37:58','',5000,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/NET-PS-PERF-JAN2018.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(10906,1,'2018-01-31 18:31:31','2018-01-31 23:31:31','','P+L RATIOS JAN2018','','inherit','open','closed','','pl-ratios-jan2018','','','2018-01-31 18:39:21','2018-01-31 23:39:21','',5002,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/PL-RATIOS-JAN2018.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(10907,1,'2018-01-31 18:31:35','2018-01-31 23:31:35','','PIP COMPARISON JAN2018','','inherit','open','closed','','pip-comparison-jan2018','','','2018-01-31 18:40:05','2018-01-31 23:40:05','',6869,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/PIP-COMPARISON-JAN2018.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(11093,1,'2018-03-03 06:57:40','2018-03-03 11:57:40','<h4>Radar Trades Archives:</h4>\r\n<section class=\"clearfix\">\r\n<div class=\"one-half first\">\r\n<h2>This Month<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/RADAR-03032018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-11073\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/RADAR-03032018-762x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"762\" height=\"1024\" /></a></h2>\r\n<h2><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/RADAR-28022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-11036\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/RADAR-28022018-755x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"755\" height=\"1024\" /></a></h2>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"one-half\">\r\n<h2>Year to date<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/RADAR-YTDFEB2018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-11037\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/RADAR-YTDFEB2018-753x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"753\" height=\"1024\" /></a></h2>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<h2>PREVIOUS YEARS</h2>\r\n<h2><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/RADAR-COMPLETE-2017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-10712\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/RADAR-COMPLETE-2017.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"866\" height=\"954\" /></a></h2>\r\n<h2></h2>\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-8807\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/RADAR-2016-COMPLETE.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"856\" height=\"938\" />\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/RADAR-2015-COMP-copy.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-10670\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/RADAR-2015-COMP-copy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"429\" height=\"449\" /></a><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/radar-trades/radar-2015-comp/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-6985\">\r\n</a>\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/RADAR-2014-COMPLETE.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-8858\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/RADAR-2014-COMPLETE.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"489\" height=\"487\" /></a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</section>','Radar Trades','','inherit','closed','closed','','2524-revision-v1','','','2018-03-03 06:57:40','2018-03-03 11:57:40','',2524,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/2524-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(11092,1,'2018-03-03 06:57:00','2018-03-03 11:57:00','<h4>Radar Trades Archives:</h4>\r\n<section class=\"clearfix\">\r\n<div class=\"one-half first\">\r\n<h2>This Month<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/RADAR-03032018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-11073\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/RADAR-03032018-762x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"762\" height=\"1024\" /></a></h2>\r\n<h2></h2>\r\n<h2></h2>\r\n<h2></h2>\r\n<h2><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/RADAR-28022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-11036\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/RADAR-28022018-755x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"755\" height=\"1024\" /></a></h2>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"one-half\">\r\n<h2>Year to date<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/RADAR-YTDFEB2018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-11037\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/RADAR-YTDFEB2018-753x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"753\" height=\"1024\" /></a></h2>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<h2>PREVIOUS YEARS</h2>\r\n<h2><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/RADAR-COMPLETE-2017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-10712\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/RADAR-COMPLETE-2017.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"866\" height=\"954\" /></a></h2>\r\n<h2></h2>\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-8807\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/RADAR-2016-COMPLETE.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"856\" height=\"938\" />\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/RADAR-2015-COMP-copy.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-10670\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/RADAR-2015-COMP-copy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"429\" height=\"449\" /></a><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/radar-trades/radar-2015-comp/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-6985\">\r\n</a>\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/RADAR-2014-COMPLETE.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-8858\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/RADAR-2014-COMPLETE.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"489\" height=\"487\" /></a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</section>','Radar Trades','','inherit','closed','closed','','2524-revision-v1','','','2018-03-03 06:57:00','2018-03-03 11:57:00','',2524,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/2524-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(11095,1,'2018-03-03 06:59:03','2018-03-03 11:59:03','<div class=\"one-half first\">\r\n<h2>This Month<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/MOMENTUM-03032018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-11074\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/MOMENTUM-03032018-791x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"791\" height=\"1024\" /></a></h2>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<h2><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/MOMENTUM-28022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-11038\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/MOMENTUM-28022018-790x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"790\" height=\"1024\" /></a></h2>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"one-half\">\r\n<h2>Year to date<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/MOMENTUM-YTDFEB2018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-11039\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/MOMENTUM-YTDFEB2018-755x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"755\" height=\"1024\" /></a></h2>\r\n<h2>PREVIOUS YEARS</h2>\r\n</div>','Momentum Trades','','inherit','closed','closed','','10540-revision-v1','','','2018-03-03 06:59:03','2018-03-03 11:59:03','',10540,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/10540-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(11094,1,'2018-03-03 06:58:22','2018-03-03 11:58:22','<div class=\"one-half first\">\r\n<h2>This Month<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/MOMENTUM-03032018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-11074\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/MOMENTUM-03032018-791x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"791\" height=\"1024\" /></a></h2>\r\n<h2></h2>\r\n<h2><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/MOMENTUM-28022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-11038\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/MOMENTUM-28022018-790x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"790\" height=\"1024\" /></a></h2>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"one-half\">\r\n<h2>Year to date<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/MOMENTUM-YTDFEB2018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-11039\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/MOMENTUM-YTDFEB2018-755x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"755\" height=\"1024\" /></a></h2>\r\n<h2>PREVIOUS YEARS</h2>\r\n</div>','Momentum Trades','','inherit','closed','closed','','10540-revision-v1','','','2018-03-03 06:58:22','2018-03-03 11:58:22','',10540,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/10540-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(11097,1,'2018-03-03 07:00:33','2018-03-03 12:00:33','<h4>POSITION TRADES Archives:</h4>\r\n<section class=\"clearfix\">\r\n<div class=\"one-half first\">\r\n<h2>This Month<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/POSITION-03032018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-11076\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/POSITION-03032018-785x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"785\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/POS1-28022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-11043\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/POS1-28022018-781x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"781\" height=\"1024\" /></a><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/POS2-28022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-11044\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/POS2-28022018-781x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"781\" height=\"1024\" /></a><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/POS3-28022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-11045\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/POS3-28022018-760x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"760\" height=\"1024\" /></a></h2>\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/POS1-19112016.png\">\r\n</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"one-half\">\r\n<h2>Year to date<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/POS-YTDFEB2018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-11046\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/POS-YTDFEB2018-757x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"757\" height=\"1024\" /></a></h2>\r\n<h2>PREVIOUS YEARS</h2>\r\n<h2><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/POSITION-COMPLETE-2017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-10714\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/POSITION-COMPLETE-2017.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"820\" height=\"946\" /></a></h2>\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/POS-2016-COMPLETE.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-8814\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/POS-2016-COMPLETE.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"816\" height=\"946\" /></a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</section>','POSITION TRADES','','inherit','closed','closed','','6965-revision-v1','','','2018-03-03 07:00:33','2018-03-03 12:00:33','',6965,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/6965-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(10931,1,'2018-02-03 09:21:46','2018-02-03 14:21:46','&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE FIRST SHOT:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nFor most of January, I was very critical of the price action in the sense that it was not providing two-way action allowing for pullbacks, for traders to try to get value entries.\r\n\r\nIt was a little surprising to a lot of people that given the criticism that was leveled at the FX market that at the end of January the PREMIUM SERVICE pip total was 1,478 pips of profit. My second-best January so far only beaten by that achieved in 2015.\r\n\r\nHow did this pip performance come about?\r\n\r\nBasically, I tried my best whenever possible to avoid the USD. I tried with limited success to trade JPY cross rates, but most of the time they promised a lot but gave nothing but disappointment in the end. It was the EUR and GBP cross rates that despite liquidity issues at times gave a greater consistency. As simple as that.\r\n\r\nIt gives a springboard for the year.\r\n\r\nThe only negatives that I have taken from the month was that the profit to loss trade ratio was 69% / 31% which is a little below my 75% / 25% objective and that my new trade style, MOMENTUM TRADES recorded a pip loss in the month of 202 pips, which was a little frustrating. It all went pear shaped in the last 48 hours of the month.\r\n\r\nThis month two days old and the total pips for two days stands at 530 pips.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong> MARKET OVERVIEW – MY THOUGHTS:</strong><strong> </strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>ONE WAY MARKETS and LOW LIQUIDITY </strong></span></p>\r\nWhen I was deciding what to write about this week, I thought that most of the economic reports, newspaper columns and social networks would be filled with articles and commentaries about the U.S. Equity sell off and the movement in U.S. Bond yields.\r\n\r\nI decided to run with something that I wanted to use basically from the start of December when all of the following really started to resonate with me.\r\n\r\nIntroduction complete…\r\n\r\nThis coming week, we have an action-packed diary of “FRONT PAGE” economic data releases. Sure, last week had NFP, I tried a couple of trades last week, but I rarely trade NFP anymore, I think it\'s a mug’s game, just my opinion. It’s all hype, a big fuss and at times the moves exaggerated so much should you fall foul of a false move or knee jerk reaction by the markets, all it does is ruin your weekend.\r\n\r\nIt’s totally not my style to trade in anyway aggressively on a Friday, but more often than not after the LONDON FIX after NFP, most times we see a directional market that will hangover into Asian trading at the start of the following week. Whether the moves run through the first weekly trading session in Europe is debatable, as more often than not the European traders love to reverse the direction of the initial Asian session.\r\n\r\nHowever, should you live in Asia or Australia, New Zealand…Happy Days!\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nThe caveat I would add at the moment is that we have a sell the dollar one-way market at the moment and the lower liquidity issues in Asia are exacerbating the matter.\r\n\r\nThe best times to trade Forex is when the European session overlaps with the North American session. To be really focused 8AM to 11:30AM EST.\r\n\r\nThis means that out of the 24 x 5 selling feature of trading the FX markets the hours of real liquidity are 3.5 hours a day.\r\n\r\nTo put it another way: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>5 days x 24 hours = 120 hours.</li>\r\n 	<li>5 days x 3.5 hours = 17.5 hours</li>\r\n 	<li>14.5% of the total market open time per week.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nNow, there are exceptions, when high beta data is being released in Asia, the UK or Australia and New Zealand one can tag on the odd hour here and there but generally speaking at the moment in my opinion no more than 15% of the time available can actually be viewed as good trading conditions, with reasonable two-way price action\r\n\r\nNow, if I were to say, I do not even think that we have achieved this 14.5% good trading conditions of late, why am I still trading and what am I doing and how am, I doing it to keep my head above water?\r\n\r\nI have heard many traders using the words untradeable, impossible, unpredictable and basically tough. They are NOT wrong.\r\n\r\nThe FX market is no longer the USD 3-4 Billion a day market that many FX Brokers will have you believe. On good days it may reach USD 3 Billion, but the real numbers which are a pain in the arse to try to establish are I am being advised closer to USD 2.5 Billion per day and the truth probably lies between USD2 &amp; USD2.5 Billion.\r\n\r\nIt makes sense, many of the big banks have lost fortunes trading FX despite their positions of influence. As the big banks pull out or reduce active operations the liquidity lowers.\r\n\r\nWhere would this lower liquidity be felt more. Obviously Asia, which has always had liquidity issues ever since I started trading FX back in 2007.\r\n\r\nEurope and the Americas are not excused from this reduction but as there are more market participants the effects are not as visible.\r\n\r\nSo, what am I doing, what have I changed?\r\n\r\nI have tried to adapt once again. My TRADE PLAN has generally remained unaltered from 2010, following the GFC. Fundamentally nothing much has changed. What has changed though is my approach to shorter timespan trades.\r\n\r\nThe EUR/CHF peg removal was a watershed day in FX. Brokers lost money, clients lost money, I myself lost over USD$10,000. Every time I look at a GBP/CHF chart I swear at the little fecker! “THE PEG” day, January 15th, 2015, was a wake-up call. It hardened me as a trader. My trading improved as a result. It was “SCOTT versus THE WORLD” as far as I was concerned. I tightened up my trading parameters. I had a great pips tally in January 2015 despite the PEG removal, it was my record January since starting the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\nI have subscribers dotted all over the globe. I trade at different times, all zones, but my focus is as written already when Europe and the Americas trade side by side. It has to be.\r\n\r\nTo facilitate better adaptability to trading and to achieve longevity in trading, should be every traders goal. The preservation of capital is paramount.\r\n\r\nTo cope with increased volatility, I introduced very successfully POSITION trades. Two years in, they are still NOT perfect. They make pips, good pips but I am Not able to let them run as far as I want them to because of the type of markets we are trading inside.\r\n\r\nI re-defined RADAR and FLASH trades, this is a work in progress.\r\n\r\nThis year I added MOMENTUM trades, which, I hope will be welcomed by Asian, Australian and New Zealand traders as these are intended to be mostly focused on opportunist trades around the daily closing candles. Again, this is work in progress, I have only just completed the first 30 days of this trade style. It has been a bumpy start and I have been more liberal than maybe I should have been with limits and stops. I am hoping that these trades will operate in the Asian sessions even with lower liquidity levels on the basis that I am hoping that MOMENTUM will help produce my desired results. Time will tell.\r\n\r\nSo, to compete with one-way markets and lower liquidity, you have to be a bit savvier. In my opinion, both trading times and your trading style approaches need to be reviewed.\r\n\r\nThis however, does NOT give answers on how to trade in a news driven environment.\r\n\r\nA couple of weeks ago the economic calendar was really thin. We were left at the mercy of TRUMP and his TWITTER FEED. TRUMP controlled the message, Fibonacci levels, chart patterns, candlestick formations and Pivot Points meant nothing. In this type of market environment, it was completely one-way, no pullbacks, I was mostly sidelined. If you were in a trade, you could run with it, but as soon as you took profits it was a risk getting back in as the markets were over stretched and it felt that a snap back was on the cards. I am still waiting for the snapback to happen!\r\n\r\nI talked about FOMO in FX last week. (Fear of Missing out)\r\n\r\nPersonally, I feel that we are slowly but surely moving towards a FX/Equities/Bonds crisis with each passing day. It’s all about what will be the catalyst to set the ball rolling, what will be the start of the DOMINO EFFECT.\r\n\r\nCorrelations are off, and correlations do matter. Last week I mentioned the JPY and I still believe that the JPY will be front and centre when the move starts. Whether it be yields, stocks or the DXY. Bonds, Yields and equities all usually correlated with the USD/JPY. They are NOT at the moment.\r\n\r\nWe have watched the start of a sell-off in equities last week; last Friday we saw, all three U.S. markets lower.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>DOW:             - 2.57%</li>\r\n 	<li>S&amp;P:               - 2.15%</li>\r\n 	<li>NASDAQ:      - 1.96%</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThese moves were on the back of some smaller negative moves earlier in the week. A sell off may gather a pace this week, it may not. If, we see a market capitulation, it will be drastic as we have been so one-sided for so long.\r\n\r\nWe really have to be careful at the moment. The FOMO approach could lead to a broker account being limited out, if you are not managing your RISK properly.\r\n\r\nIn my view, without sounding like a DRAMA QUEEN, jumping on board with trades without a plan or strategic entry is just gambling.\r\n\r\nIt has been a pure one-way market for so long, and with experience I know that the snap back could happen at any time and when it does it will be vicious, screen time has taught me this lesson. One requires patience.\r\n\r\nSomething has got to give…\r\n\r\nThis market is very much FEAR and GREED driven at the moment.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>USD SUPPORT and RESISTANCE with my BIAS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/T-CHART-03022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-10922\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/T-CHART-03022018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1022\" height=\"886\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE PREMIUM SERVICE TRADING SUMMARY:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.1. PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:\r\n</u>(Incorporating the last 5 PREMIUM SERVICE TRADES)\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/PREM-SERV-STATUS-03022017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10920\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/PREM-SERV-STATUS-03022017-1024x863.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"863\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.2. PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE: - JANUARY 2018</u>\r\n\r\nThe spreadsheet below shows the income that was generated from single lot trades.\r\n\r\nAs you can see subscribers who have paid for either a 6 or 12 month subscription who trade either single MINI or STANDARD lots have had their subscription costs covered already.\r\n\r\nIf you cannot afford the initial outlay of CAD$800 or CAD$1,250 the MONTHLY ROLLOVER subscription option of CAD$150.00 per month offers real more affordable subscription option. It has a low risk start in the sense that the first 10 days cost just CAD$10.00.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/PREM-SERV-JAN2018-NET-PERF.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10921\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/PREM-SERV-JAN2018-NET-PERF-931x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"931\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS:\r\n</strong></span>(This section is for PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS ONLY)</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.1. TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\nThe final pip tally for January 2018 = <strong><u>1,478 pips.\r\n</u></strong>\r\n\r\nThis was the best PREMIUM SERVICE January performance since 2015… the year of the PEG!\r\n\r\nMOMENTUM TRADES losing 202 pips and profit / loss ratios below 75% / 25% require some additional focus but apart from these things given how awkward the months was, I am pleased with the return for obvious reasons. I now have to build on this moving forward.\r\n\r\nWe seem to be in a market of half moves. Pairs give all the signs of a failure and then they snap back as if the move that had progressed so far did not exist, like it never happened. This type of scenario is typical of a market at extremes and it does not take a rocket scientist to see we are in an extreme market. False moves lower and higher are common place, we have certainly seen them over the past few days alone (AUD/USD and NZD/USD).\r\n\r\nThe big move is on the way…\r\n\r\nI know I keep writing patience is required, last week with NFP I traded USD/JPY and EUR/JPY. I did this because the NFP numbers were good across the board. I wondered whether or not the market makers would start believing that 3 FED interest rate hikes were starting to look like a definite possibility. In addition, maybe a fourth was an option to normalize at a faster rate when things are so good in the U.S. economy. Would this trigger an equity sell-off?\r\n\r\nI still see the USD/JPY as an integral part of any correction in the DXY. Take a look at the DXY chart below.\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, we have no reason to be aggressive buyers of the USD unless we break above the GREEN TRENDLINE. We have a base formed.\r\n\r\nThe move higher in the DXY to get me in anyway a USD bull again has to see the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 91.00 being hit.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/DXY-D-03022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10926\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/DXY-D-03022018-1024x559.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"559\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe domino effect, or the big move catalyst is so connected.\r\n\r\nPersistent USD selling (weakness)\r\nU.S. Bond Yields\r\nPrecious Metals\r\nOil\r\nCentral Bank Monetary Policy\r\nEquity Prices\r\n\r\nInter-Market correlations (S&amp;P-AUD/JPY), (VIX-USD/CAD), (OIL-USD), (GOLD-USD), (USD/JPY-U.S. Bonds/Yields)\r\n\r\nThe USD/JPY has NOT correlated with Bond Yields / Equities, so I am assuming that when, and they will at some time, change direction the USD/JPY is going to have a “BAD DAY” at the office. If Sentiment and Fundamentals really change the USD/JPY back at 100.00 is NOT out of the question in my opinion.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.2. SENTIMENT,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nCarrying on the theme from last week, not much has altered in my opinion other than the big move, which I believe is going to happen is edging closer.\r\n\r\nThe only FUNDAMENTAL change in my strategy is that for now I want to see the CAD short traders cleaned out of the market. The CAD currency is too heavily weighted to the CAD buyers. We need a good old fashioned short squeeze to eliminate these from the market and enable a short USD/CAD trade from around 1.2650-1.2700 if possible.\r\n\r\nI am still short the NZD. I am edging into long EUR and GBP trades as well.\r\n\r\nThere is no rush.\r\n\r\nWe have another round of BREXIT negotiations on the way this week and at the moment I have enough GBP exposure.\r\n\r\nHere is something that has been plaguing me for a few weeks now.\r\n\r\nThe transition from accommodation to normalization, on the basis that it has never been done before on such a grand scale was bound to have uncertainties and confusion attached.\r\n\r\nWe have certainly been witnesses to this over recent weeks, many would argue since TRUMP took office, although I think it’s safe to say his approach is “different” … “special” …\r\n\r\nIt makes sense that highly leveraged markets are going to flex, struggle, adjust and battle their way as monies shift from one market to another as market makers and institutions fight to gather yields.\r\n\r\nForex is caught in the middle to some degree. Central Banks are to a large extent unable to do anything to avoid changes unless of course they stop the normalization move in its tracks, which of course they DO NOT want to do. Therefore, they are voyeurs to a large extent.\r\n\r\nAs a Forex trader, my predominant route, over-whelming rule is to look for the less riskier option. MINIMISE RISK is all over my TRADING PLAN.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nMarket sentiment is always something that I look at and consider when placing trades. The old school approach of the TREND IS YOUR FRIEND still applies and is as relevant today as it has always been.\r\n\r\nA couple of years ago, I wrote a blog titled “IT’S ALL ABOUT COMMODITIES” and for weeks around this blog post, I kept referring to commodity prices for one specific reason, they tend to reflect a true market, especially in an inflation cycle which I believe we are entering now. They are NOT heavily manipulated like the currency markets.\r\n\r\nI am not saying that we should rush out and trade futures or CFD’s depending on your location, but I am saying we should focus more on commodity linked currencies than the non-commodity based currencies.  To a large extent, I have been doing this via NZD and AUD trades. Moving forward, the NOK, MXN and CAD should also play a greater part in my trade set ups.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/SENTIMENT-03022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10928\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/SENTIMENT-03022018-784x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"784\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.3. THE WEEK AHEAD:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.1. ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES THAT INTEREST ME:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/ECON-DATA-03022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10927\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/ECON-DATA-03022018-1024x893.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"893\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.2. MY KEY EVENTS ON THIS WEEK’S CALENDAR:</u>\r\n\r\nIn no particular order: -.\r\n\r\n<u>AUD – RETAIL SALES, TRADE BALANCE, RBA RATE STATEMENT, PHILIP LOWE (RBA) Governor speaks and RBA MONETARY POLICY STATEMENT:</u>\r\n\r\nBy any stretch this is a full week of good frontline Aussie data.\r\n\r\nI am hedged; being long AUD/NZD, GBP/AUD and short AUD/USD. I would rather know which way the AUD is going to move than be both ways, so to speak, however being hedged is not a bad plan to start off with.\r\n\r\nThis is a big week. Technically the AUD/USD has dropped out of a rising wedge/channel, which is a bearish event.\r\n\r\nWe have seen recent poor Aussie data (CPi), this soft data gave the markets the view of no inflation in the Australian market and therefore no immediate change in RBA policy. Well this week the proof of the pudding will be in the eating.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>NZD – JOBS DATA, RBNZ RATE STATEMENT, POLICY STATEMENT &amp; PRESS CONFERENCE:</u>\r\n\r\nThe chaps are out again. This really is a wet fish event. However, it is important to me as I am MACRO / FUNDAMENTAL short the NZD. I still have a FLASH CRASH objective based on a victory when “pulling a (chicken) wish bone”. My objective is the John Key low of 0.6500!\r\n\r\nI know… what can you say?\r\n\r\nI have read so much about the RBNZ I am dizzy. Yer man, Adrian Orr picks up the reigns, I think from the next meeting, so for this one we have Grant “call me Frank” Spencer. He is about as convincing and as useful as a chocolate teapot. Nevertheless, we will have to sit through his pandering. A word to note; almost everything he claimed at his last press conference was re-buffed, questioned, clarified and corrected by the government Finance Minister or the deputy.\r\n\r\nThe jobs data Spencer cannot screw up.\r\n\r\n<u>GBP – SERVICES PMi, MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION, BOE INFLATION REPORT, MPC VOTE and MONETARY POLICY SUMMARY:</u>\r\n\r\nAdd to the above list the start of another round of BREXIT NEGOTIATIONS and we should have a fun GBP week in store.\r\n\r\nThis week should give us the direction for the next couple of weeks.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>CAD – JOBS DATA:</u>\r\n\r\nI have pulled out of my CAD trades for now. I want something concrete upon which to hang my hat. Stephen Poloz has claimed on a few occasions now that the BOC interest rate hiking policy is data dependent.\r\n\r\nFor me therefore, this will help me with a bit more data on where to set my short trades.\r\n\r\nI had a review session last week and CAD trades came up. The question was, why not just short the CAD now, put in a MONTHLY ATR stop, close your eyes and open them up in November to claim your profits. FUNDAMENTALLY it has merits, but we have NAFTA to consider as well. We could see +1.3000 before we see a sub 1.2000 print. It is all about the amount of RISK that would be involved.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.3. HOW I WILL APPROACH and TRADE THE MARKET THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\nWe have a hell of a week for prime data this week.\r\n\r\nI removed some RISK after NFP. As soon as possible I want to add back long EUR cross rates (EUR/AUD and EUR/NZD). Apart from these trades, I think this coming week may one of consolidation.\r\n\r\nI am not comfortable predicting the outcome of the economic news events and so I will be reacting to the data when possible rather than predicting.\r\n\r\nThe markets in my opinion are all about commodities. Therefore, moving through this week most trades and set ups will be based around the commodity currencies.\r\n\r\nThe one failure from my NFP action plan was to trigger a long EUR/USD trade. Apart from commodity pairs, I will be looking to add EUR/USD and maybe a USD/JPY trade.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>5.3.4. MY “MACRO” TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEK AHEAD:</u>\r\n\r\nMy action plan for the week is: -\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>Add back NZD POSITION TRADE set ups that were removed after NFP, after the RBNZ.</li>\r\n 	<li>Establish a medium-term TRADE PLAN with the AUD following the data this week.</li>\r\n 	<li>Formulate a strategy re EUR long and JPY short trades.</li>\r\n 	<li>After the CAD Jobs Data this Friday. Establish ideas for CAD POSITION TRADES.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.4 SUMMARY - LONG TERM CORE TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/LT-POS-TRADES-03022019.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10925\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/LT-POS-TRADES-03022019-1024x826.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"826\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.5. CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.5.1. CURRENT LIVE TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/LIVE-TRADES-03022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10924\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/LIVE-TRADES-03022018-1024x991.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"991\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u>5.5.2. CURRENT LIMIT ORDER TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/LIMIT-ORDERS-03022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10923\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/LIMIT-ORDERS-03022018-1024x779.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"779\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.6. FX BROKER NEWS and MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\nComplete silence. I reached out to a couple of broker contacts. Nothing has come back.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE FINAL SHOT:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @ThePremService\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #164 PREMIUM SERVICE\r\nDATE: 3rd February 2018\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','ONE WAY MARKETS and LOW LIQUIDITY','','inherit','closed','closed','','10929-revision-v1','','','2018-02-03 09:21:46','2018-02-03 14:21:46','',10929,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/10929-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(10932,1,'2018-02-03 09:35:33','2018-02-03 14:35:33','<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE FIRST SHOT:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nFor most of January, I was very critical of the price action in the sense that it was not providing two-way action allowing for pullbacks, for traders to try to get value entries.\r\n\r\nIt was a little surprising to a lot of people that given the criticism that was leveled at the FX market that at the end of January the PREMIUM SERVICE pip total was 1,478 pips of profit. My second-best January so far only beaten by that achieved in 2015.\r\n\r\nHow did this pip performance come about?\r\n\r\nBasically, I tried my best whenever possible to avoid the USD. I tried with limited success to trade JPY cross rates, but most of the time they promised a lot but gave nothing but disappointment in the end. It was the EUR and GBP cross rates that despite liquidity issues at times gave a greater consistency. As simple as that.\r\n\r\nIt gives a springboard for the year.\r\n\r\nThe only negatives that I have taken from the month was that the profit to loss trade ratio was 69% / 31% which is a little below my 75% / 25% objective and that my new trade style, MOMENTUM TRADES recorded a pip loss in the month of 202 pips, which was a little frustrating. It all went pear shaped in the last 48 hours of the month.\r\n\r\nThis month two days old and the total pips for two days stands at 530 pips.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong> MARKET OVERVIEW – MY THOUGHTS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">ONE WAY MARKETS and LOW LIQUIDITY</span> </strong></p>\r\nWhen I was deciding what to write about this week, I thought that most of the economic reports, newspaper columns and social networks would be filled with articles and commentaries about the U.S. Equity sell off and the movement in U.S. Bond yields.\r\n\r\nI decided to run with something that I wanted to use basically from the start of December when all of the following really started to resonate with me.\r\n\r\nIntroduction complete…\r\n\r\nThis coming week, we have an action-packed diary of “FRONT PAGE” economic data releases. Sure, last week had NFP, I tried a couple of trades last week, but I rarely trade NFP anymore, I think it\'s a mug’s game, just my opinion. It’s all hype, a big fuss and at times the moves exaggerated so much should you fall foul of a false move or knee jerk reaction by the markets, all it does is ruin your weekend.\r\n\r\nIt’s totally not my style to trade in anyway aggressively on a Friday, but more often than not after the LONDON FIX after NFP, most times we see a directional market that will hangover into Asian trading at the start of the following week. Whether the moves run through the first weekly trading session in Europe is debatable, as more often than not the European traders love to reverse the direction of the initial Asian session.\r\n\r\nHowever, should you live in Asia or Australia, New Zealand…Happy Days!\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nThe caveat I would add at the moment is that we have a sell the dollar one-way market at the moment and the lower liquidity issues in Asia are exacerbating the matter.\r\n\r\nThe best times to trade Forex is when the European session overlaps with the North American session. To be really focused 8AM to 11:30AM EST.\r\n\r\nThis means that out of the 24 x 5 selling feature of trading the FX markets the hours of real liquidity are 3.5 hours a day.\r\n\r\nTo put it another way: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>5 days x 24 hours = 120 hours.</li>\r\n 	<li>5 days x 3.5 hours = 17.5 hours</li>\r\n 	<li>14.5% of the total market open time per week.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nNow, there are exceptions, when high beta data is being released in Asia, the UK or Australia and New Zealand one can tag on the odd hour here and there but generally speaking at the moment in my opinion no more than 15% of the time available can actually be viewed as good trading conditions, with reasonable two-way price action.\r\n\r\nNow, if I were to say, I do not even think that we have achieved this 14.5% good trading conditions of late, why am I still trading and what am I doing and how am, I doing it to keep my head above water?\r\n\r\nI have heard many traders using the words untradeable, impossible, unpredictable and basically tough. They are NOT wrong.\r\n\r\nThe FX market is no longer the USD 3-4 Billion a day market that many FX Brokers will have you believe. On good days it may reach USD 3 Billion, but the real numbers which are a pain in the arse to try to establish are I am being advised closer to USD 2.5 Billion per day and the truth probably lies between USD2 &amp; USD2.5 Billion.\r\n\r\nIt makes sense, many of the big banks have lost fortunes trading FX despite their positions of influence. As the big banks pull out or reduce active operations the liquidity lowers.\r\n\r\nWhere would this lower liquidity be felt more. Obviously Asia, which has always had liquidity issues ever since I started trading FX back in 2007.\r\n\r\nEurope and the Americas are not excused from this reduction but as there are more market participants the effects are not as visible.\r\n\r\nSo, what am I doing, what have I changed?\r\n\r\nI have tried to adapt once again. My TRADE PLAN has generally remained unaltered from 2010, following the GFC. Fundamentally nothing much has changed. What has changed though is my approach to shorter timespan trades.\r\n\r\nThe EUR/CHF peg removal was a watershed day in FX. Brokers lost money, clients lost money, I myself lost over USD$10,000. Every time I look at a GBP/CHF chart I swear at the little fecker! “THE PEG” day, January 15th, 2015, was a wake-up call. It hardened me as a trader. My trading improved as a result. It was “SCOTT versus THE WORLD” as far as I was concerned. I tightened up my trading parameters. I had a great pips tally in January 2015 despite the PEG removal, it was my record January since starting the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\nI have subscribers dotted all over the globe. I trade at different times, all zones, but my focus is as written already when Europe and the Americas trade side by side. It has to be.\r\n\r\nTo facilitate better adaptability to trading and to achieve longevity in trading, should be every traders goal. The preservation of capital is paramount.\r\n\r\nTo cope with increased volatility, I introduced very successfully POSITION trades. Two years in, they are still NOT perfect. They make pips, good pips but I am Not able to let them run as far as I want them to because of the type of markets we are trading inside.\r\n\r\nI re-defined RADAR and FLASH trades, this is a work in progress.\r\n\r\nThis year I added MOMENTUM trades, which, I hope will be welcomed by Asian, Australian and New Zealand traders as these are intended to be mostly focused on opportunist trades around the daily closing candles. Again, this is work in progress, I have only just completed the first 30 days of this trade style. It has been a bumpy start and I have been more liberal than maybe I should have been with limits and stops. I am hoping that these trades will operate in the Asian sessions even with lower liquidity levels on the basis that I am hoping that MOMENTUM will help produce my desired results. Time will tell.\r\n\r\nSo, to compete with one-way markets and lower liquidity, you have to be a bit savvier. In my opinion, both trading times and your trading style approaches need to be reviewed.\r\n\r\nThis however, does NOT give answers on how to trade in a news driven environment.\r\n\r\nA couple of weeks ago the economic calendar was really thin. We were left at the mercy of TRUMP and his TWITTER FEED. TRUMP controlled the message, Fibonacci levels, chart patterns, candlestick formations and Pivot Points meant nothing. In this type of market environment, it was completely one-way, no pullbacks, I was mostly sidelined. If you were in a trade, you could run with it, but as soon as you took profits it was a risk getting back in as the markets were over stretched and it felt that a snap back was on the cards. I am still waiting for the snapback to happen!\r\n\r\nI talked about FOMO in FX last week. (Fear of Missing out)\r\n\r\nPersonally, I feel that we are slowly but surely moving towards a FX/Equities/Bonds crisis with each passing day. It’s all about what will be the catalyst to set the ball rolling, what will be the start of the DOMINO EFFECT.\r\n\r\nCorrelations are off, and correlations do matter. Last week I mentioned the JPY and I still believe that the JPY will be front and centre when the move starts. Whether it be yields, stocks or the DXY. Bonds, Yields and equities all usually correlated with the USD/JPY. They are NOT at the moment.\r\n\r\nWe have watched the start of a sell-off in equities last week; last Friday we saw, all three U.S. markets lower.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>DOW:             - 2.57%</li>\r\n 	<li>S&amp;P:               - 2.15%</li>\r\n 	<li>NASDAQ:      - 1.96%</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThese moves were on the back of some smaller negative moves earlier in the week. A sell off may gather a pace this week, it may not. If, we see a market capitulation, it will be drastic as we have been so one-sided for so long.\r\n\r\nWe really have to be careful at the moment. The FOMO approach could lead to a broker account being limited out, if you are not managing your RISK properly.\r\n\r\nIn my view, without sounding like a DRAMA QUEEN, jumping on board with trades without a plan or strategic entry is just gambling.\r\n\r\nIt has been a pure one-way market for so long, and with experience I know that the snap back could happen at any time and when it does it will be vicious, screen time has taught me this lesson. One requires patience.\r\n\r\nSomething has got to give…\r\n\r\nThis market is very much FEAR and GREED driven at the moment.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>USD SUPPORT and RESISTANCE with my BIAS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/T-CHART-03022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-10922\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/T-CHART-03022018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1022\" height=\"886\" /></a> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE PREMIUM SERVICE TRADING SUMMARY:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>4.1. PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:\r\n</u>(Incorporating the last 5 PREMIUM SERVICE TRADES)\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/PREM-SERV-STATUS-03022017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10920\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/PREM-SERV-STATUS-03022017-1024x863.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"863\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.2. PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE: - JANUARY 2018</u>\r\n\r\nThe spreadsheet below shows the income that was generated from single lot trades.\r\n\r\nAs you can see subscribers who have paid for either a 6 or 12 month subscription who trade either single MINI or STANDARD lots have had their subscription costs covered already.\r\n\r\nIf you cannot afford the initial outlay of CAD$800 or CAD$1,250 the MONTHLY ROLLOVER subscription option of CAD$150.00 per month offers real more affordable subscription option. It has a low risk start in the sense that the first 10 days cost just CAD$10.00.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/PREM-SERV-JAN2018-NET-PERF.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10921\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/PREM-SERV-JAN2018-NET-PERF-931x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"931\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(This section is for PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS ONLY)\r\n\r\n<u>5.1. TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.2. SENTIMENT,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3. THE WEEK AHEAD:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.1. ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES THAT INTEREST ME:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.2. MY KEY EVENTS ON THIS WEEK’S CALENDAR:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.3. HOW I WILL APPROACH and TRADE THE MARKET THIS WEEK:\r\n\r\n</u><u> </u><u>5.3.4. MY “MACRO” TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEK AHEAD:\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n<u> 5.4 SUMMARY - LONG TERM CORE TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.5. CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.5.1. CURRENT LIVE TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.5.2. CURRENT LIMIT ORDER TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.6. FX BROKER NEWS and MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE FINAL SHOT:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #268 FREE NEWSLETTER\r\nDATE: 3rd February 2018','ONE WAY MARKETS and LOW LIQUIDITY','','publish','open','closed','','one-way-markets-low-liquidity','','','2018-02-03 09:35:33','2018-02-03 14:35:33','',0,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?p=10932',0,'post','',0),(10933,1,'2018-02-03 09:35:33','2018-02-03 14:35:33','<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE FIRST SHOT:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nFor most of January, I was very critical of the price action in the sense that it was not providing two-way action allowing for pullbacks, for traders to try to get value entries.\r\n\r\nIt was a little surprising to a lot of people that given the criticism that was leveled at the FX market that at the end of January the PREMIUM SERVICE pip total was 1,478 pips of profit. My second-best January so far only beaten by that achieved in 2015.\r\n\r\nHow did this pip performance come about?\r\n\r\nBasically, I tried my best whenever possible to avoid the USD. I tried with limited success to trade JPY cross rates, but most of the time they promised a lot but gave nothing but disappointment in the end. It was the EUR and GBP cross rates that despite liquidity issues at times gave a greater consistency. As simple as that.\r\n\r\nIt gives a springboard for the year.\r\n\r\nThe only negatives that I have taken from the month was that the profit to loss trade ratio was 69% / 31% which is a little below my 75% / 25% objective and that my new trade style, MOMENTUM TRADES recorded a pip loss in the month of 202 pips, which was a little frustrating. It all went pear shaped in the last 48 hours of the month.\r\n\r\nThis month two days old and the total pips for two days stands at 530 pips.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong> MARKET OVERVIEW – MY THOUGHTS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">ONE WAY MARKETS and LOW LIQUIDITY</span> </strong></p>\r\nWhen I was deciding what to write about this week, I thought that most of the economic reports, newspaper columns and social networks would be filled with articles and commentaries about the U.S. Equity sell off and the movement in U.S. Bond yields.\r\n\r\nI decided to run with something that I wanted to use basically from the start of December when all of the following really started to resonate with me.\r\n\r\nIntroduction complete…\r\n\r\nThis coming week, we have an action-packed diary of “FRONT PAGE” economic data releases. Sure, last week had NFP, I tried a couple of trades last week, but I rarely trade NFP anymore, I think it\'s a mug’s game, just my opinion. It’s all hype, a big fuss and at times the moves exaggerated so much should you fall foul of a false move or knee jerk reaction by the markets, all it does is ruin your weekend.\r\n\r\nIt’s totally not my style to trade in anyway aggressively on a Friday, but more often than not after the LONDON FIX after NFP, most times we see a directional market that will hangover into Asian trading at the start of the following week. Whether the moves run through the first weekly trading session in Europe is debatable, as more often than not the European traders love to reverse the direction of the initial Asian session.\r\n\r\nHowever, should you live in Asia or Australia, New Zealand…Happy Days!\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nThe caveat I would add at the moment is that we have a sell the dollar one-way market at the moment and the lower liquidity issues in Asia are exacerbating the matter.\r\n\r\nThe best times to trade Forex is when the European session overlaps with the North American session. To be really focused 8AM to 11:30AM EST.\r\n\r\nThis means that out of the 24 x 5 selling feature of trading the FX markets the hours of real liquidity are 3.5 hours a day.\r\n\r\nTo put it another way: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>5 days x 24 hours = 120 hours.</li>\r\n 	<li>5 days x 3.5 hours = 17.5 hours</li>\r\n 	<li>14.5% of the total market open time per week.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nNow, there are exceptions, when high beta data is being released in Asia, the UK or Australia and New Zealand one can tag on the odd hour here and there but generally speaking at the moment in my opinion no more than 15% of the time available can actually be viewed as good trading conditions, with reasonable two-way price action.\r\n\r\nNow, if I were to say, I do not even think that we have achieved this 14.5% good trading conditions of late, why am I still trading and what am I doing and how am, I doing it to keep my head above water?\r\n\r\nI have heard many traders using the words untradeable, impossible, unpredictable and basically tough. They are NOT wrong.\r\n\r\nThe FX market is no longer the USD 3-4 Billion a day market that many FX Brokers will have you believe. On good days it may reach USD 3 Billion, but the real numbers which are a pain in the arse to try to establish are I am being advised closer to USD 2.5 Billion per day and the truth probably lies between USD2 &amp; USD2.5 Billion.\r\n\r\nIt makes sense, many of the big banks have lost fortunes trading FX despite their positions of influence. As the big banks pull out or reduce active operations the liquidity lowers.\r\n\r\nWhere would this lower liquidity be felt more. Obviously Asia, which has always had liquidity issues ever since I started trading FX back in 2007.\r\n\r\nEurope and the Americas are not excused from this reduction but as there are more market participants the effects are not as visible.\r\n\r\nSo, what am I doing, what have I changed?\r\n\r\nI have tried to adapt once again. My TRADE PLAN has generally remained unaltered from 2010, following the GFC. Fundamentally nothing much has changed. What has changed though is my approach to shorter timespan trades.\r\n\r\nThe EUR/CHF peg removal was a watershed day in FX. Brokers lost money, clients lost money, I myself lost over USD$10,000. Every time I look at a GBP/CHF chart I swear at the little fecker! “THE PEG” day, January 15th, 2015, was a wake-up call. It hardened me as a trader. My trading improved as a result. It was “SCOTT versus THE WORLD” as far as I was concerned. I tightened up my trading parameters. I had a great pips tally in January 2015 despite the PEG removal, it was my record January since starting the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\nI have subscribers dotted all over the globe. I trade at different times, all zones, but my focus is as written already when Europe and the Americas trade side by side. It has to be.\r\n\r\nTo facilitate better adaptability to trading and to achieve longevity in trading, should be every traders goal. The preservation of capital is paramount.\r\n\r\nTo cope with increased volatility, I introduced very successfully POSITION trades. Two years in, they are still NOT perfect. They make pips, good pips but I am Not able to let them run as far as I want them to because of the type of markets we are trading inside.\r\n\r\nI re-defined RADAR and FLASH trades, this is a work in progress.\r\n\r\nThis year I added MOMENTUM trades, which, I hope will be welcomed by Asian, Australian and New Zealand traders as these are intended to be mostly focused on opportunist trades around the daily closing candles. Again, this is work in progress, I have only just completed the first 30 days of this trade style. It has been a bumpy start and I have been more liberal than maybe I should have been with limits and stops. I am hoping that these trades will operate in the Asian sessions even with lower liquidity levels on the basis that I am hoping that MOMENTUM will help produce my desired results. Time will tell.\r\n\r\nSo, to compete with one-way markets and lower liquidity, you have to be a bit savvier. In my opinion, both trading times and your trading style approaches need to be reviewed.\r\n\r\nThis however, does NOT give answers on how to trade in a news driven environment.\r\n\r\nA couple of weeks ago the economic calendar was really thin. We were left at the mercy of TRUMP and his TWITTER FEED. TRUMP controlled the message, Fibonacci levels, chart patterns, candlestick formations and Pivot Points meant nothing. In this type of market environment, it was completely one-way, no pullbacks, I was mostly sidelined. If you were in a trade, you could run with it, but as soon as you took profits it was a risk getting back in as the markets were over stretched and it felt that a snap back was on the cards. I am still waiting for the snapback to happen!\r\n\r\nI talked about FOMO in FX last week. (Fear of Missing out)\r\n\r\nPersonally, I feel that we are slowly but surely moving towards a FX/Equities/Bonds crisis with each passing day. It’s all about what will be the catalyst to set the ball rolling, what will be the start of the DOMINO EFFECT.\r\n\r\nCorrelations are off, and correlations do matter. Last week I mentioned the JPY and I still believe that the JPY will be front and centre when the move starts. Whether it be yields, stocks or the DXY. Bonds, Yields and equities all usually correlated with the USD/JPY. They are NOT at the moment.\r\n\r\nWe have watched the start of a sell-off in equities last week; last Friday we saw, all three U.S. markets lower.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>DOW:             - 2.57%</li>\r\n 	<li>S&amp;P:               - 2.15%</li>\r\n 	<li>NASDAQ:      - 1.96%</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThese moves were on the back of some smaller negative moves earlier in the week. A sell off may gather a pace this week, it may not. If, we see a market capitulation, it will be drastic as we have been so one-sided for so long.\r\n\r\nWe really have to be careful at the moment. The FOMO approach could lead to a broker account being limited out, if you are not managing your RISK properly.\r\n\r\nIn my view, without sounding like a DRAMA QUEEN, jumping on board with trades without a plan or strategic entry is just gambling.\r\n\r\nIt has been a pure one-way market for so long, and with experience I know that the snap back could happen at any time and when it does it will be vicious, screen time has taught me this lesson. One requires patience.\r\n\r\nSomething has got to give…\r\n\r\nThis market is very much FEAR and GREED driven at the moment.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>USD SUPPORT and RESISTANCE with my BIAS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/T-CHART-03022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-10922\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/T-CHART-03022018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1022\" height=\"886\" /></a> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE PREMIUM SERVICE TRADING SUMMARY:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>4.1. PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:\r\n</u>(Incorporating the last 5 PREMIUM SERVICE TRADES)\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/PREM-SERV-STATUS-03022017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10920\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/PREM-SERV-STATUS-03022017-1024x863.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"863\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.2. PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE: - JANUARY 2018</u>\r\n\r\nThe spreadsheet below shows the income that was generated from single lot trades.\r\n\r\nAs you can see subscribers who have paid for either a 6 or 12 month subscription who trade either single MINI or STANDARD lots have had their subscription costs covered already.\r\n\r\nIf you cannot afford the initial outlay of CAD$800 or CAD$1,250 the MONTHLY ROLLOVER subscription option of CAD$150.00 per month offers real more affordable subscription option. It has a low risk start in the sense that the first 10 days cost just CAD$10.00.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/PREM-SERV-JAN2018-NET-PERF.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10921\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/PREM-SERV-JAN2018-NET-PERF-931x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"931\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(This section is for PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS ONLY)\r\n\r\n<u>5.1. TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.2. SENTIMENT,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3. THE WEEK AHEAD:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.1. ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES THAT INTEREST ME:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.2. MY KEY EVENTS ON THIS WEEK’S CALENDAR:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.3. HOW I WILL APPROACH and TRADE THE MARKET THIS WEEK:\r\n\r\n</u><u> </u><u>5.3.4. MY “MACRO” TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEK AHEAD:\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n<u> 5.4 SUMMARY - LONG TERM CORE TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.5. CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.5.1. CURRENT LIVE TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.5.2. CURRENT LIMIT ORDER TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.6. FX BROKER NEWS and MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE FINAL SHOT:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #268 FREE NEWSLETTER\r\nDATE: 3rd February 2018','ONE WAY MARKETS and LOW LIQUIDITY','','inherit','closed','closed','','10932-revision-v1','','','2018-02-03 09:35:33','2018-02-03 14:35:33','',10932,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/10932-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(10963,1,'2018-02-10 06:51:25','2018-02-10 11:51:25','&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE FIRST SHOT:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nWhere do I start with this week’s blog?\r\n\r\nDo I get a few of my usual expletive’s out of the way first?\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Holy Mother of God</li>\r\n 	<li>What the feck was that?</li>\r\n 	<li>Well, glaze my nipples and call me Rita!</li>\r\n 	<li>Jesus, Mary and Joseph</li>\r\n 	<li>It’s like putting lipstick on a pig… but it’s still a pig</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nI feel a bit better after that…\r\n\r\nSo many subjects to choose from this week plus, I have so many pieces of paper with memory joggers noted on them to choose from it’s hard to know what to use never mind where to start from.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>STOCK MARKET CORRECTION</li>\r\n 	<li>BOND YIELDS ON A TEAR</li>\r\n 	<li>OVER BOUGHT CONDITIONS IN STOCK MARKET</li>\r\n 	<li>RAMIFICATIONS OF A RISING U.S. DEFECIT TO THE U.S. &amp; WORLD</li>\r\n 	<li>S. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK WITH STOCK MARKET FALL</li>\r\n 	<li>INTER-MARKET CORRELATIONS OUT OF THE WINDOW</li>\r\n 	<li>CREDABILITY OF CENTRAL BANK ANNOUNCEMENTS</li>\r\n 	<li>STRENGTH OF THE USD (DXY) SPIKING OFF LOWS</li>\r\n 	<li>BANK OF ENGLAND TURNING HAWKISH</li>\r\n 	<li>CHINA DATA MODERATING, HOW WILL THIS MANIFEST ITSELF MOVING FORWARD</li>\r\n 	<li>IS THE UK GOING TO WALK AWAY FROM BREXIT WITH A “NO DEAL”?</li>\r\n 	<li>SHOULD THE UK TELL THE EU27 TO SHOVE THE BREXIT PROPOSALS WHERE THE SUN DOESN’T SHINE?</li>\r\n 	<li>COMMODITY WEAKNESS STARTING TO SHOW… WHAT ARE THE RAMIFICATIONS</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nIn this section I have decided to touch on the media and how we as traders are basically treated as mushrooms fed shi*e and kept pretty much in the dark.\r\n\r\nSince Friday Feb 2nd, I have had both CNBC and BLOOMBERG broadcasting alongside my trading screens set up. I wonder why I have had multiple headaches and a migraine in the last week, damn obvious when you think about it.\r\n\r\nBack on point…\r\n\r\nIf you recall when the GFC happened, no-one admitted to losing money. Every clever fecker on CNBC saw it coming and dropped into cash ahead of the carnage. Now I am not comparing the recent correction in stocks to the GFC in size or world impact, there is no comparison, but I am comparing what we receive from the media about it.\r\n\r\nWe as traders like to have data. We live, eat and breathe data. I get it, sometimes moves just happen. But out of every move there are winners and losers.\r\n\r\nWe are led to believe, and this makes complete sense to me, that the CORRECTION was caused mainly by the inflation effect of the average hourly earnings increase to 2.9% annualized contained in the Non-Farm data release on 2nd February.  The move up in earnings, spooked the bond markets because of the inflation ramifications and in so doing, created a domino effect, the commodity area started to react, then FX, albeit subdued, and finally Wall Street the equity markets suddenly heard the penny drop.\r\n\r\n“FECK ME; HOLY CRAP” … maybe the FED may actually raise interest rates 3 or 4 times this year!\r\n\r\nThe domino effect, the circle was now complete. The rest is history as they say.\r\n\r\nA week last Friday was a roller coaster market. The following Monday the DOW JONES closed over 1,100 points lower, a similar loss of 1,032 points was noted on Thursday last week. Both the DOW and broader based S&amp;P entered CORRECTION territory as they had slipped 10% from their highs.\r\n\r\nMillions of dollars have been wiped out. Last week was the worse week on Wall Street since 2011.\r\n\r\nSo; who was selling?\r\n\r\nI haven’t got a fecking clue.\r\n\r\nAll I have heard from BLOOMBERG and CNBC was everyone was holding tight looking for the right opportunity to step back in with value picks.\r\n\r\nFFS… someone, some institution was shorting the market.\r\n\r\nPlease forgive me if CNBC or BLOOMBERG found a seller, when I was taking a nap, having a sleep, eating or having a bathroom break, but I never heard or saw a name not even a rumour.\r\n\r\nCan you believe this? Trillions of dollars were lost in the U.S. alone; once again no one on TV reported losing money, and no-one was shorting.\r\n\r\nIt’s a bloody miracle… I have witnessed a market move of biblical proportions “THE IMMACULATE CORRECTION”\r\n\r\nWhat I do know is that a great deal of retail money came into the market at the start of 2018 and as usual “Ma and Pa” investors seem to be hit again. They always enter at the highs and lose and get out at the bottom just before the spike higher once again. I can only guess what it must be like for some retail investors, or any investors for that matter looking at their statements this weekend.\r\n\r\nWhat do I take from this…\r\n\r\nI have blogged about this so many times over the past 5 years or so and you can obviously draw your own conclusions, but, I am now more than ever of the belief after 10 years of trading that in FOREX: -\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">It is all about you</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">You have your machines</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">You have your charts</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">You have your analysis</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">It is you versus the world</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">It is all down to you</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">You will rise or fall on your decisions</p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Whether you are a Fundamental or Technical trader</p>\r\n\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>The media is biased. It only wants to promote “GOOD NEWS” because “BAD NEWS” does not get advertising revenue.</li>\r\n 	<li>Banking analysts SELL their latest book. They do this whether it’s the right thing to do or not.</li>\r\n 	<li>Twitter feeds and other Social media can be a very dangerous place to ascertain quality data.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThe CORRECTION has happened. The unwinding will go on for some time yet as other influences come into play. The markets were very badly positioned going into NFP and this complacency has been whacked in good old Tony Soprano style.\r\n\r\nWithout doubt, some trading accounts were blown apart and some people lost a ton of cash. On the other side, somewhere somebody must have made a ton of cash shorting?\r\n\r\nWith all the above being said…\r\n\r\nI can guarantee you that following last week there will be a lot of retail investors looking at their statements and weeping.\r\n\r\nAll eyes will be on CPi data this week.<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong> MARKET OVERVIEW – MY THOUGHTS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>ARE CENTRAL BANKS BEHIND THE CURVE? </strong></span></p>\r\nI am a FUNDAMENTAL trader. 90% of the time I trade in the direction of my MICRO views and thoughts.\r\n\r\nObviously, my beliefs are built around the various policies of the Central banks. Their Monetary Statements are crucial to my thoughts along with the day to day economic data.\r\n\r\nMy initial observations are that when times are distressed they are quick to act they are masters of supplying liquidity, masters of trying to stabilize markets, removing uncertainties by promising whatever it takes to try to stabilize matters. The GFC and more recently BREXIT being cases of recent Central Bank intervention to support the general marketplace. Prior to these events, Central Bank governors or Presidents appeared to be wound up very tightly. Almost overnight it seemed that they all took stool softeners, which relaxed them and within what seemed like hours they were flooding the markets with financial accommodation and promises to keep banks liquid.\r\n\r\nWe are now moving away from “accommodation” after the longest period of recovery that I can think of and Central Banks are now moving to a policy of normalization.\r\n\r\nSome are further down this road than others as the world economies recover at different paces.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>FED: In pole position to normalization.\r\nCurrent rate is 1.5%, with 3 or maybe 4 rate hikes this year.</li>\r\n 	<li>BOE: Initially maybe a little reluctant to normalize but now moving up.\r\nCurrent rate is 0.50%, with possibly 2 rate increases this year.</li>\r\n 	<li>BOC: On the road to higher rates. The BOC is data dependent.\r\nCurrent rate is 1.25%, with possibly 2 more rate hikes this year.</li>\r\n 	<li>RBA: Unmoved and unchanged since August 2016.\r\nCurrent rate is 1.50%, however analysts have a hike factored for Q4 2018.</li>\r\n 	<li>RBNZ: On hold with the last change being in November 2016.\r\nCurrent rate is 1.75%, it was believed the next hike would be in 2019. However, the timing may be brought forward into Q4 2018.</li>\r\n 	<li>ECB: On hold with no plans to normalize interest rates this year.\r\nCurrent rate is 0.00%. Q3 this year, news re normalization should be updated to the markets.</li>\r\n 	<li>BOJ: On hold with no plans to normalize.\r\nCurrent rate is negative 0.10%.</li>\r\n 	<li>SNB: On hold with no plans to change.\r\nCurrent rate is negative 0.75%</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nFrom this list of the major USD crosses, it is clear to see that we will be moving to a position of normalization from different places, but they are all from a very low base level.\r\n\r\nMy question is; Are the Central Banks behind the curve?\r\n\r\nLet me use the FED as an example, initially.\r\n\r\nOne of the reasons provided by some analysts over the current stock market sell-off is that following the last good print of the Non-Farm payrolls number and the fact that wages started to accelerate resulting in possible inflation finally appearing, that caused the penny to drop. The FED had said at the end of 2017, based upon their view of the U.S. economy that 3 maybe 4 increases in U.S. interest rates could be taking place in 2018.\r\n\r\nThe markets being complacent ignored this, believing it probably would not happen. Non-farm data was good, the FED speakers that followed revisited the messages posted in 2017 and bond yields started to move. Commodity prices started to follow and then FX started to react very noticeably through the USD (DXY) strengthening.\r\n\r\nFinally, Wall Street must have had a FFS and WTF moment. The rest is as often said, history. We should note, despite the changes in stock market prices lower, this has little or no effect on the economic outlook for the U.S. That message would change when people’s spending habits are seen to change.\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, this is all down to market complacency.\r\n\r\nHowever, having said that, is the FED behind the curve based on the conditions in the U.S. economy?\r\n\r\nFrom my perspective YES… without doubt and the fumbling and dithering by the FED have a part to play in creating an unstable environment. The very primary function that they are entrusted to prevent.\r\n\r\nThe conversations that take place regarding whether members are DOVISH or HAWKISH rumbles on. I have blogged on numerous occasions that Janet Yellen is always a DOVE. Once a DOVE always a DOVE. This means caution, or in my words dithering.\r\n\r\nJerome Powell her replacement as FED chairman has a tough job. Under Yellen and Bernanke, we never saw volatility like we have just seen. On the very day Powell gets sworn in the markets go mental. Can you connect this? I do not think so for the reasons already provided about how this MARKET CORRECTION came about.\r\n\r\nBut the facts are the U.S. economy is in fair shape and confidence is good.\r\n\r\nI would not be surprised that if in March, Powell hits the market with a 0.50% rate hike, following with 0.25% in September and similar again in December. This would send a message and definitely bring the Fed in line with the curve. Doing 0.25% in March and again in June does NOT in my opinion send the correct message of control.\r\n\r\nStock markets are going to correct. As often said, the recent rise in equities over the past few years has been the most hated BULL RALLY in the history of stock market moves.\r\n\r\nIt’s now time to look forward and manage. The FED needs to be the Fed once again and take control. Be assertive, give the message of strength and outline the path forward. Had the FED been more assertive in the first place the rise in bond yields may not have been such a shock to the system.\r\n\r\nMoving away from the FED…\r\n\r\nMark Carney at the BOE is really the only other Central Bank that has to deal with inflation. This issue for Carney, is that he has to deal with the complexities of BREXIT at the same time. Political fumbling’s and a weak power position for Theresa may as UK Prime Minister must keep him up at night.\r\n\r\nHe does not to coin a phrase, have much behind the clock in case of emergency. With interest rates at 0.50% I suppose he can match the ECB at 0.00%!\r\n\r\nUK inflation is receding as the GBP/USD moves higher but cable is pressured at the moment. Above 1.4000, I would imagine gives him comfort as well as the key exchange rate being above that psychological number.\r\n\r\nAcross the English Channel in mainland Europe, the ECB is at 0.00% with QE still in place until at least Q3 this year.\r\n\r\nThere is little to no inflation in the EUROZONE, but the economic data is without doubt improving. More so in Northern Europe than the Mediterranean area, but data is moving to the positive side.\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, the ECB is behind the curve. Mario Draghi, ECB President has a huge, massive, bigly message to deliver without creating uncertainty in the markets. Right now, one could argue the stubbornness of the ECB to properly acknowledge good data and “Face the music” of the markets will come back and bite hard.\r\n\r\nTherefore, in my opinion, one of key functions of Central Banks; to remove uncertainty and maintain stability in the markets is being placed in jeopardy because they do not act fast enough.\r\n\r\nThis opens up a new debate about the data they receive on which to base policy on. Is it good data? Is it timely? Is it accurate?\r\n\r\nThis then leads into the quality, the experience and abilities of those in the senior positions. Do they have what it takes to manage, interpret data and more importantly have the ability to deliver the message? Can they direct effectively?\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>USD SUPPORT and RESISTANCE with my BIAS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/TCHART-09022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-10954\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/TCHART-09022018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1020\" height=\"884\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE PREMIUM SERVICE TRADING SUMMARY:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\n(Incorporating the last 5 PREMIUM SERVICE TRADES)\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/PS-SUMMARY-09022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10945\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/PS-SUMMARY-09022018-1024x863.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"863\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(This section is for PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS ONLY)\r\n\r\n<u>5.1. TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\nWhat a week that was. I am very annoyed, but more frustrated with myself that I did not exit on the BOE and re-set the POSITION TRADES. Not doing that has meant that I am now carrying large contingents forward. It is part and parcel of LONGER-TERM POSITION TRADING but its rather annoying knowing I could have taken some positions away. The saving grace is that position sizes are small, but the sea of RED is not motivating.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nThe BLOODBATH in equities will, in my opinion, continue for some time still.  The next thing will be an announcement of a BEAR MARKET.\r\n\r\nThe correlations are still off. RISK OFF to a point in my opinion. The FX reaction is still a little subdued. I expected the JPY to strengthen like crazy and the commodity currencies to fly. It simply hasn’t happened… so far.\r\n\r\nI have been taking some pips here and there out of the market and that feeling is good, but my positioning is not 100% perfect. Longer-term, I feel comfortable, but I will have to make decisions soon regarding the open positions should they continue to bleed lower. Cash wise it’s NOT a problem. Pip wise its only relevant to monthly reports.  My TRADE PLAN which is my bible comes under threat and this has been my guiding light for several years now.\r\n\r\nThe GBP will revert higher. I am reluctant to close trades, knowing that probably within a week of closing them the GBP will no doubt rally to new highs.\r\n\r\nIf you guys recall, I held HEDGED TRADES last year in the USD/CAD. I tried a couple of times to work out the hedge only to fail. I decided to close them as we were coming to the end of 2017. 48 hours later the 900-pip loss would have been flat. This is at the back of my mind with GBP cross rates,\r\n\r\nJust like the JPY and AUD, the cross rates are not performing. With RISK OFF conditions, the commodity currencies are holding up really well. This is really concerning to me. My thoughts are that this week I may take a step back until I can get some clarity. To be frank all week because of the equity market unwind, the markets have been nothing but a chop fest.\r\n\r\nAlso, and this has stuck with me from last Friday.\r\n\r\nEUR/JPY (FUN849 and MOM023): - The FUN trade triggered in Asian trading the entry was good 133.70 for a limit order entry. I check trades c.11PM-Midnight, it was 12-15 pips positive and in general the basket of open trades looked good. What had been given back after the BOE has now started to reverse…. happy days. At the European open I checked again. Europe was trying to reverse the Asian sell-off and the FUN trades was now negative between 40-50 pips. I decided to cut the trade having had so many JPY trades turn against me of late. It was an exit based on emotional.\r\n\r\nLater, late European/very early U.S. session, it was obvious that the Europeans had failed to keep equities positive and the JPY was strengthening as a result. I opened the screens at my desk and the FUN trade, had I stayed in it was now back at 70-100 pips in profit. I will ignore the expletive here!\r\n\r\nFor the rest of the day up to two hours before the Wall Street close it bounced around in a range. It was a bit of a chop fest session.\r\n\r\nHowever, two hours from the close I had two momentum trades in USD/JPY (MOM018) and EUR/JPY (MOM023) with sell stop entries trigger. The EUR/JPY triggered at 132.80. The range of moves in the S&amp;P and especially the DOW30, 100-point chunks at a time on occasion, brought MOM023 under a whippy / choppy series of moves. In minutes it dipped to 132.00. I placed a protective stop at 132.30 to protect 50 pips. I could not break 132.00 after several minutes of trying. AS equities found a base and bounced so did MOM923, it spiked higher, I banked my 50 pips, but the EUR/JPY spiked over 130 pips off the lows in a few minutes. The EUR/JPY finished the week around 133.30.\r\n\r\nMy point with example is that the market can change very, very quickly. Moves are impossible to plot technically. If anyone could have plotted in seconds Fridays moves with the EUR/JPY, I would like to meet that person. I have a few bottles of water here that perhaps he or she could turn into Corton Charlemagne for me.\r\n\r\nThe commodity crosses can move even faster than the EUR/JPY e.g. 300 pips in GBP/NZD can be eroded in 45 minutes. The markets are so fluid at the moment my RISK is managed. At the moment I am within my TRADE PLAN guidelines. I am just thinking ahead.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.2. SENTIMENT,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:\r\n\r\n</u>\r\n\r\nI think that it is fair to say that with a CORRECTION in place the next target for the market makers is to turn that into a BEAR MARKET by attacking the 200 DAY SMA’s.\r\n\r\nFUNDAMENTALLY, I am still happy with my trade directions. I just need the trades to get a move on!\r\n\r\nThere are some silly moves in FX at the moment. The best recent case in point being the CAD jobs data last Friday. The data was really poor. The USD/CAD spiked into resistance and fell back 100 pips and then struggled around 1.2600 most of the day.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/SENTIMENT-09022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10946\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/SENTIMENT-09022018-784x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"784\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.3. THE WEEK AHEAD:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n5.3.1. ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES THAT INTEREST ME:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/ECON-DATA-09022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10941\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/ECON-DATA-09022018-1024x830.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"830\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.2. MY KEY EVENTS ON THIS WEEK’S CALENDAR AND WHY:</u>\r\n\r\nIn no particular order: -\r\n\r\n<u>GBP – CPi &amp; RETAIL SALES:</u>\r\n\r\nInflation data the week after Carney stated on “Super Thursday” that it may go up again, before it resumes its move lower. Despite his statement, if the print is above 2.9%, cable will rally on the basis that the markets will be expecting a rate increase sooner than later.\r\n\r\nRetail Sales numbers are released at the end of the week. They were very disappointing last time around with a negative 1.5% print. This time around expectations are for a positive 0.6% number. Quite a turnaround expected.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>USD – CPi and PPi:</u>\r\n\r\nWhilst CPi is a lagging indicator should the U.S. print come in greater than 0.3% it will add fuel to the existing fire we have with equities at the present time.\r\n\r\nShould producer prices also beat the 0.4% expected we could be heading in for further volatility.\r\n\r\n<u>AUD – JOBS DATA AND PHILIP LOWE SPEAKS:</u>\r\n\r\nThe forecast this time around is for 15.2k. The AUD is trading really heavy. I am still not so sure that a good number would do nothing but allow traders who are out of their shorts to see the rip!\r\n\r\nGovernor Lowe also speaks towards the end of the week. Of late, these have basically been non-market moving events, but you have to be there when a Central Bank Governor speaks out.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.3. HOW I WILL APPROACH and TRADE THE MARKET THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\nI don\'t think I could take another migraine this week.\r\n\r\nIt is a chop fest and moves are mental at times. It has been very difficult to trade, gauge and actually just follow market reasoning.\r\n\r\nI will step back a little next week.\r\n\r\nNext week also takes on a huge additional issue. This weekend, I would imagine that many of the major banks will have their FX teams and strategists in-house looking into the week ahead.\r\n\r\nFollowing my comments here, I have added to this week’s blog the 7 USD major WEEKLY TRADE CHARTS.\r\n\r\nWe have interesting closing weekly candles on all the charts. I have made a few comments on some charts, but all need to be viewed to show the extent of the moves last week. The exception is the USD/CHF, I have used the MONTHLY chart because it shows multiyear trend lines.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nEUR/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/EURUSD-W-10022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10956\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/EURUSD-W-10022018-1024x441.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"441\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/GBPUSD-W-10022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10957\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/GBPUSD-W-10022018-1024x441.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"441\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/AUDUSD-W-10022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10955\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/AUDUSD-W-10022018-1024x441.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"441\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/NZDUSD-W-10022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10958\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/NZDUSD-W-10022018-1024x441.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"441\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/USDCAD-W-10022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10959\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/USDCAD-W-10022018-1024x441.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"441\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/USDCHF-M-10022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10960\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/USDCHF-M-10022018-1024x441.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"441\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/USDJPY-W-10022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10961\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/USDJPY-W-10022018-1024x441.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"441\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>5.3.4. MY “MACRO” TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEK AHEAD:</u>\r\n\r\nMy action plan for the week is: -\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>Add POSITION TRADES to my CORE POSITIONS to ensure that I have set ups positioned at extremes to take advantage of DIPS and RIPS.</li>\r\n 	<li>Establish a medium-term TRADE PLAN with the AUD following the data this week.</li>\r\n 	<li>Formulate a strategy re EUR long and JPY short trades.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5.4 SUMMARY - LONG TERM CORE TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/LTSUMMARY-09022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10944\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/LTSUMMARY-09022018-1024x875.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"875\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.5. CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.5.1. CURRENT LIVE TRADES:\r\n\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/LIVE-TRADES-09022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10943\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/LIVE-TRADES-09022018-1024x997.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"997\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u>5.5.2. CURRENT LIMIT ORDER TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/LIMIT-ORDERS-09022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10942\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/LIMIT-ORDERS-09022018-1024x808.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"808\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.6. FX BROKER NEWS and MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\nOne factor I have noticed is that there are more brokers “coming out”, not from the closet, but from behind the closed doors of their offices and screens offering webinars to try and convert clients and attract new clients.\r\n\r\nTimes must be hard.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE FINAL SHOT:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #165 PREMIUM SERVICE\r\nDATE: 10th February 2018\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','ARE CENTRAL BANKS BEHIND THE CURVE?','','inherit','closed','closed','','10962-revision-v1','','','2018-02-10 06:51:25','2018-02-10 11:51:25','',10962,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/10962-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(10964,1,'2018-02-10 06:53:24','2018-02-10 11:53:24','&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE FIRST SHOT:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nWhere do I start with this week’s blog?\r\n\r\nDo I get a few of my usual expletive’s out of the way first?\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Holy Mother of God</li>\r\n 	<li>What the feck was that?</li>\r\n 	<li>Well, glaze my nipples and call me Rita!</li>\r\n 	<li>Jesus, Mary and Joseph</li>\r\n 	<li>It’s like putting lipstick on a pig… but it’s still a pig</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nI feel a bit better after that…\r\n\r\nSo many subjects to choose from this week plus, I have so many pieces of paper with memory joggers noted on them to choose from it’s hard to know what to use never mind where to start from.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>STOCK MARKET CORRECTION</li>\r\n 	<li>BOND YIELDS ON A TEAR</li>\r\n 	<li>OVER BOUGHT CONDITIONS IN STOCK MARKET</li>\r\n 	<li>RAMIFICATIONS OF A RISING U.S. DEFICIT TO THE U.S. &amp; WORLD</li>\r\n 	<li>S. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK WITH STOCK MARKET FALL</li>\r\n 	<li>INTER-MARKET CORRELATIONS OUT OF THE WINDOW</li>\r\n 	<li>CREDIBILITY OF CENTRAL BANK ANNOUNCEMENTS</li>\r\n 	<li>STRENGTH OF THE USD (DXY) SPIKING OFF LOWS</li>\r\n 	<li>BANK OF ENGLAND TURNING HAWKISH</li>\r\n 	<li>CHINA DATA MODERATING, HOW WILL THIS MANIFEST ITSELF MOVING FORWARD</li>\r\n 	<li>IS THE UK GOING TO WALK AWAY FROM BREXIT WITH A “NO DEAL”?</li>\r\n 	<li>SHOULD THE UK TELL THE EU27 TO SHOVE THE BREXIT PROPOSALS WHERE THE SUN DOESN’T SHINE?</li>\r\n 	<li>COMMODITY WEAKNESS STARTING TO SHOW… WHAT ARE THE RAMIFICATIONS</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nIn this section I have decided to touch on the media and how we as traders are basically treated as mushrooms fed shi*e and kept pretty much in the dark.\r\n\r\nSince Friday Feb 2nd, I have had both CNBC and BLOOMBERG broadcasting alongside my trading screens set up. I wonder why I have had multiple headaches and a migraine in the last week, damn obvious when you think about it.\r\n\r\nBack on point…\r\n\r\nIf you recall when the GFC happened, no-one admitted to losing money. Every clever fecker on CNBC saw it coming and dropped into cash ahead of the carnage. Now I am not comparing the recent correction in stocks to the GFC in size or world impact, there is no comparison, but I am comparing what we receive from the media about it.\r\n\r\nWe as traders like to have data. We live, eat and breathe data. I get it, sometimes moves just happen. But out of every move there are winners and losers.\r\n\r\nWe are led to believe, and this makes complete sense to me, that the CORRECTION was caused mainly by the inflation effect of the average hourly earnings increase to 2.9% annualized contained in the Non-Farm data release on 2nd February.  The move up in earnings, spooked the bond markets because of the inflation ramifications and in so doing, created a domino effect, the commodity area started to react, then FX, albeit subdued, and finally Wall Street the equity markets suddenly heard the penny drop.\r\n\r\n“FECK ME; HOLY CRAP” … maybe the FED may actually raise interest rates 3 or 4 times this year!\r\n\r\nThe domino effect, the circle was now complete. The rest is history as they say.\r\n\r\nA week last Friday was a roller coaster market. The following Monday the DOW JONES closed over 1,100 points lower, a similar loss of 1,032 points was noted on Thursday last week. Both the DOW and broader based S&amp;P entered CORRECTION territory as they had slipped 10% from their highs.\r\n\r\nMillions of dollars have been wiped out. Last week was the worse week on Wall Street since 2011.\r\n\r\nSo; who was selling?\r\n\r\nI haven’t got a fecking clue.\r\n\r\nAll I have heard from BLOOMBERG and CNBC was everyone was holding tight looking for the right opportunity to step back in with value picks.\r\n\r\nFFS… someone, some institution was shorting the market.\r\n\r\nPlease forgive me if CNBC or BLOOMBERG found a seller, when I was taking a nap, having a sleep, eating or having a bathroom break, but I never heard or saw a name not even a rumour.\r\n\r\nCan you believe this? Trillions of dollars were lost in the U.S. alone; once again no one on TV reported losing money, and no-one was shorting.\r\n\r\nIt’s a bloody miracle… I have witnessed a market move of biblical proportions “THE IMMACULATE CORRECTION”\r\n\r\nWhat I do know is that a great deal of retail money came into the market at the start of 2018 and as usual “Ma and Pa” investors seem to be hit again. They always enter at the highs and lose and get out at the bottom just before the spike higher once again. I can only guess what it must be like for some retail investors, or any investors for that matter looking at their statements this weekend.\r\n\r\nWhat do I take from this…\r\n\r\nI have blogged about this so many times over the past 5 years or so and you can obviously draw your own conclusions, but, I am now more than ever of the belief after 10 years of trading that in FOREX: -\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">It is all about you</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">You have your machines</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">You have your charts</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">You have your analysis</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">It is you versus the world</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">It is all down to you</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">You will rise or fall on your decisions</p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Whether you are a Fundamental or Technical trader</p>\r\n\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>The media is biased. It only wants to promote “GOOD NEWS” because “BAD NEWS” does not get advertising revenue.</li>\r\n 	<li>Banking analysts SELL their latest book. They do this whether it’s the right thing to do or not.</li>\r\n 	<li>Twitter feeds and other Social media can be a very dangerous place to ascertain quality data.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThe CORRECTION has happened. The unwinding will go on for some time yet as other influences come into play. The markets were very badly positioned going into NFP and this complacency has been whacked in good old Tony Soprano style.\r\n\r\nWithout doubt, some trading accounts were blown apart and some people lost a ton of cash. On the other side, somewhere somebody must have made a ton of cash shorting?\r\n\r\nWith all the above being said…\r\n\r\nI can guarantee you that following last week there will be a lot of retail investors looking at their statements and weeping.\r\n\r\nAll eyes will be on CPi data this week.<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong> MARKET OVERVIEW – MY THOUGHTS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>ARE CENTRAL BANKS BEHIND THE CURVE? </strong></span></p>\r\nI am a FUNDAMENTAL trader. 90% of the time I trade in the direction of my MICRO views and thoughts.\r\n\r\nObviously, my beliefs are built around the various policies of the Central banks. Their Monetary Statements are crucial to my thoughts along with the day to day economic data.\r\n\r\nMy initial observations are that when times are distressed they are quick to act they are masters of supplying liquidity, masters of trying to stabilize markets, removing uncertainties by promising whatever it takes to try to stabilize matters. The GFC and more recently BREXIT being cases of recent Central Bank intervention to support the general marketplace. Prior to these events, Central Bank governors or Presidents appeared to be wound up very tightly. Almost overnight it seemed that they all took stool softeners, which relaxed them and within what seemed like hours they were flooding the markets with financial accommodation and promises to keep banks liquid.\r\n\r\nWe are now moving away from “accommodation” after the longest period of recovery that I can think of and Central Banks are now moving to a policy of normalization.\r\n\r\nSome are further down this road than others as the world economies recover at different paces.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>FED: In pole position to normalization.\r\nCurrent rate is 1.5%, with 3 or maybe 4 rate hikes this year.</li>\r\n 	<li>BOE: Initially maybe a little reluctant to normalize but now moving up.\r\nCurrent rate is 0.50%, with possibly 2 rate increases this year.</li>\r\n 	<li>BOC: On the road to higher rates. The BOC is data dependent.\r\nCurrent rate is 1.25%, with possibly 2 more rate hikes this year.</li>\r\n 	<li>RBA: Unmoved and unchanged since August 2016.\r\nCurrent rate is 1.50%, however analysts have a hike factored for Q4 2018.</li>\r\n 	<li>RBNZ: On hold with the last change being in November 2016.\r\nCurrent rate is 1.75%, it was believed the next hike would be in 2019. However, the timing may be brought forward into Q4 2018.</li>\r\n 	<li>ECB: On hold with no plans to normalize interest rates this year.\r\nCurrent rate is 0.00%. Q3 this year, news re normalization should be updated to the markets.</li>\r\n 	<li>BOJ: On hold with no plans to normalize.\r\nCurrent rate is negative 0.10%.</li>\r\n 	<li>SNB: On hold with no plans to change.\r\nCurrent rate is negative 0.75%</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nFrom this list of the major USD crosses, it is clear to see that we will be moving to a position of normalization from different places, but they are all from a very low base level.\r\n\r\nMy question is; Are the Central Banks behind the curve?\r\n\r\nLet me use the FED as an example, initially.\r\n\r\nOne of the reasons provided by some analysts over the current stock market sell-off is that following the last good print of the Non-Farm payrolls number and the fact that wages started to accelerate resulting in possible inflation finally appearing, that caused the penny to drop. The FED had said at the end of 2017, based upon their view of the U.S. economy that 3 maybe 4 increases in U.S. interest rates could be taking place in 2018.\r\n\r\nThe markets being complacent ignored this, believing it probably would not happen. Non-farm data was good, the FED speakers that followed revisited the messages posted in 2017 and bond yields started to move. Commodity prices started to follow and then FX started to react very noticeably through the USD (DXY) strengthening.\r\n\r\nFinally, Wall Street must have had a FFS and WTF moment. The rest is as often said, history. We should note, despite the changes in stock market prices lower, this has little or no effect on the economic outlook for the U.S. That message would change when people’s spending habits are seen to change.\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, this is all down to market complacency.\r\n\r\nHowever, having said that, is the FED behind the curve based on the conditions in the U.S. economy?\r\n\r\nFrom my perspective YES… without doubt and the fumbling and dithering by the FED have a part to play in creating an unstable environment. The very primary function that they are entrusted to prevent.\r\n\r\nThe conversations that take place regarding whether members are DOVISH or HAWKISH rumbles on. I have blogged on numerous occasions that Janet Yellen is always a DOVE. Once a DOVE always a DOVE. This means caution, or in my words dithering.\r\n\r\nJerome Powell her replacement as FED chairman has a tough job. Under Yellen and Bernanke, we never saw volatility like we have just seen. On the very day Powell gets sworn in the markets go mental. Can you connect this? I do not think so for the reasons already provided about how this MARKET CORRECTION came about.\r\n\r\nBut the facts are the U.S. economy is in fair shape and confidence is good.\r\n\r\nI would not be surprised that if in March, Powell hits the market with a 0.50% rate hike, following with 0.25% in September and similar again in December. This would send a message and definitely bring the Fed in line with the curve. Doing 0.25% in March and again in June does NOT in my opinion send the correct message of control.\r\n\r\nStock markets are going to correct. As often said, the recent rise in equities over the past few years has been the most hated BULL RALLY in the history of stock market moves.\r\n\r\nIt’s now time to look forward and manage. The FED needs to be the Fed once again and take control. Be assertive, give the message of strength and outline the path forward. Had the FED been more assertive in the first place the rise in bond yields may not have been such a shock to the system.\r\n\r\nMoving away from the FED…\r\n\r\nMark Carney at the BOE is really the only other Central Bank that has to deal with inflation. This issue for Carney, is that he has to deal with the complexities of BREXIT at the same time. Political fumbling’s and a weak power position for Theresa may as UK Prime Minister must keep him up at night.\r\n\r\nHe does not to coin a phrase, have much behind the clock in case of emergency. With interest rates at 0.50% I suppose he can match the ECB at 0.00%!\r\n\r\nUK inflation is receding as the GBP/USD moves higher but cable is pressured at the moment. Above 1.4000, I would imagine gives him comfort as well as the key exchange rate being above that psychological number.\r\n\r\nAcross the English Channel in mainland Europe, the ECB is at 0.00% with QE still in place until at least Q3 this year.\r\n\r\nThere is little to no inflation in the EUROZONE, but the economic data is without doubt improving. More so in Northern Europe than the Mediterranean area, but data is moving to the positive side.\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, the ECB is behind the curve. Mario Draghi, ECB President has a huge, massive, bigly message to deliver without creating uncertainty in the markets. Right now, one could argue the stubbornness of the ECB to properly acknowledge good data and “Face the music” of the markets will come back and bite hard.\r\n\r\nTherefore, in my opinion, one of key functions of Central Banks; to remove uncertainty and maintain stability in the markets is being placed in jeopardy because they do not act fast enough.\r\n\r\nThis opens up a new debate about the data they receive on which to base policy on. Is it good data? Is it timely? Is it accurate?\r\n\r\nThis then leads into the quality, the experience and abilities of those in the senior positions. Do they have what it takes to manage, interpret data and more importantly have the ability to deliver the message? Can they direct effectively?\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>USD SUPPORT and RESISTANCE with my BIAS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/TCHART-09022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-10954\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/TCHART-09022018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1020\" height=\"884\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE PREMIUM SERVICE TRADING SUMMARY:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\n(Incorporating the last 5 PREMIUM SERVICE TRADES)\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/PS-SUMMARY-09022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10945\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/PS-SUMMARY-09022018-1024x863.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"863\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(This section is for PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS ONLY)\r\n\r\n<u>5.1. TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\nWhat a week that was. I am very annoyed, but more frustrated with myself that I did not exit on the BOE and re-set the POSITION TRADES. Not doing that has meant that I am now carrying large contingents forward. It is part and parcel of LONGER-TERM POSITION TRADING but its rather annoying knowing I could have taken some positions away. The saving grace is that position sizes are small, but the sea of RED is not motivating.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nThe BLOODBATH in equities will, in my opinion, continue for some time still.  The next thing will be an announcement of a BEAR MARKET.\r\n\r\nThe correlations are still off. RISK OFF to a point in my opinion. The FX reaction is still a little subdued. I expected the JPY to strengthen like crazy and the commodity currencies to fly. It simply hasn’t happened… so far.\r\n\r\nI have been taking some pips here and there out of the market and that feeling is good, but my positioning is not 100% perfect. Longer-term, I feel comfortable, but I will have to make decisions soon regarding the open positions should they continue to bleed lower. Cash wise it’s NOT a problem. Pip wise its only relevant to monthly reports.  My TRADE PLAN which is my bible comes under threat and this has been my guiding light for several years now.\r\n\r\nThe GBP will revert higher. I am reluctant to close trades, knowing that probably within a week of closing them the GBP will no doubt rally to new highs.\r\n\r\nIf you guys recall, I held HEDGED TRADES last year in the USD/CAD. I tried a couple of times to work out the hedge only to fail. I decided to close them as we were coming to the end of 2017. 48 hours later the 900-pip loss would have been flat. This is at the back of my mind with GBP cross rates,\r\n\r\nJust like the JPY and AUD, the cross rates are not performing. With RISK OFF conditions, the commodity currencies are holding up really well. This is really concerning to me. My thoughts are that this week I may take a step back until I can get some clarity. To be frank all week because of the equity market unwind, the markets have been nothing but a chop fest.\r\n\r\nAlso, and this has stuck with me from last Friday.\r\n\r\nEUR/JPY (FUN849 and MOM023): - The FUN trade triggered in Asian trading the entry was good 133.70 for a limit order entry. I check trades c.11PM-Midnight, it was 12-15 pips positive and in general the basket of open trades looked good. What had been given back after the BOE has now started to reverse…. happy days. At the European open I checked again. Europe was trying to reverse the Asian sell-off and the FUN trades was now negative between 40-50 pips. I decided to cut the trade having had so many JPY trades turn against me of late. It was an exit based on emotional.\r\n\r\nLater, late European/very early U.S. session, it was obvious that the Europeans had failed to keep equities positive and the JPY was strengthening as a result. I opened the screens at my desk and the FUN trade, had I stayed in it was now back at 70-100 pips in profit. I will ignore the expletive here!\r\n\r\nFor the rest of the day up to two hours before the Wall Street close it bounced around in a range. It was a bit of a chop fest session.\r\n\r\nHowever, two hours from the close I had two momentum trades in USD/JPY (MOM018) and EUR/JPY (MOM023) with sell stop entries trigger. The EUR/JPY triggered at 132.80. The range of moves in the S&amp;P and especially the DOW30, 100-point chunks at a time on occasion, brought MOM023 under a whippy / choppy series of moves. In minutes it dipped to 132.00. I placed a protective stop at 132.30 to protect 50 pips. I could not break 132.00 after several minutes of trying. AS equities found a base and bounced so did MOM923, it spiked higher, I banked my 50 pips, but the EUR/JPY spiked over 130 pips off the lows in a few minutes. The EUR/JPY finished the week around 133.30.\r\n\r\nMy point with example is that the market can change very, very quickly. Moves are impossible to plot technically. If anyone could have plotted in seconds Fridays moves with the EUR/JPY, I would like to meet that person. I have a few bottles of water here that perhaps he or she could turn into Corton Charlemagne for me.\r\n\r\nThe commodity crosses can move even faster than the EUR/JPY e.g. 300 pips in GBP/NZD can be eroded in 45 minutes. The markets are so fluid at the moment my RISK is managed. At the moment I am within my TRADE PLAN guidelines. I am just thinking ahead.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.2. SENTIMENT,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nI think that it is fair to say that with a CORRECTION in place the next target for the market makers is to turn that into a BEAR MARKET by attacking the 200 DAY SMA’s.\r\n\r\nFUNDAMENTALLY, I am still happy with my trade directions. I just need the trades to get a move on!\r\n\r\nThere are some silly moves in FX at the moment. The best recent case in point being the CAD jobs data last Friday. The data was really poor. The USD/CAD spiked into resistance and fell back 100 pips and then struggled around 1.2600 most of the day.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/SENTIMENT-09022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10946\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/SENTIMENT-09022018-784x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"784\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.3. THE WEEK AHEAD:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n5.3.1. ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES THAT INTEREST ME:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/ECON-DATA-09022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10941\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/ECON-DATA-09022018-1024x830.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"830\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.2. MY KEY EVENTS ON THIS WEEK’S CALENDAR AND WHY:</u>\r\n\r\nIn no particular order: -\r\n\r\n<u>GBP – CPi &amp; RETAIL SALES:</u>\r\n\r\nInflation data the week after Carney stated on “Super Thursday” that it may go up again, before it resumes its move lower. Despite his statement, if the print is above 2.9%, cable will rally on the basis that the markets will be expecting a rate increase sooner than later.\r\n\r\nRetail Sales numbers are released at the end of the week. They were very disappointing last time around with a negative 1.5% print. This time around expectations are for a positive 0.6% number. Quite a turnaround expected.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>USD – CPi and PPi:</u>\r\n\r\nWhilst CPi is a lagging indicator should the U.S. print come in greater than 0.3% it will add fuel to the existing fire we have with equities at the present time.\r\n\r\nShould producer prices also beat the 0.4% expected we could be heading in for further volatility.\r\n\r\n<u>AUD – JOBS DATA AND PHILIP LOWE SPEAKS:</u>\r\n\r\nThe forecast this time around is for 15.2k. The AUD is trading really heavy. I am still not so sure that a good number would do nothing but allow traders who are out of their shorts to see the rip!\r\n\r\nGovernor Lowe also speaks towards the end of the week. Of late, these have basically been non-market moving events, but you have to be there when a Central Bank Governor speaks out.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.3. HOW I WILL APPROACH and TRADE THE MARKET THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\nI don\'t think I could take another migraine this week.\r\n\r\nIt is a chop fest and moves are mental at times. It has been very difficult to trade, gauge and actually just follow market reasoning.\r\n\r\nI will step back a little next week.\r\n\r\nNext week also takes on a huge additional issue. This weekend, I would imagine that many of the major banks will have their FX teams and strategists in-house looking into the week ahead.\r\n\r\nFollowing my comments here, I have added to this week’s blog the 7 USD major WEEKLY TRADE CHARTS.\r\n\r\nWe have interesting closing weekly candles on all the charts. I have made a few comments on some charts, but all need to be viewed to show the extent of the moves last week. The exception is the USD/CHF, I have used the MONTHLY chart because it shows multiyear trend lines.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nEUR/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/EURUSD-W-10022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10956\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/EURUSD-W-10022018-1024x441.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"441\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/GBPUSD-W-10022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10957\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/GBPUSD-W-10022018-1024x441.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"441\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/AUDUSD-W-10022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10955\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/AUDUSD-W-10022018-1024x441.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"441\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/NZDUSD-W-10022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10958\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/NZDUSD-W-10022018-1024x441.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"441\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/USDCAD-W-10022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10959\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/USDCAD-W-10022018-1024x441.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"441\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/USDCHF-M-10022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10960\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/USDCHF-M-10022018-1024x441.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"441\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/USDJPY-W-10022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10961\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/USDJPY-W-10022018-1024x441.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"441\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>5.3.4. MY “MACRO” TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEK AHEAD:</u>\r\n\r\nMy action plan for the week is: -\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>Add POSITION TRADES to my CORE POSITIONS to ensure that I have set ups positioned at extremes to take advantage of DIPS and RIPS.</li>\r\n 	<li>Establish a medium-term TRADE PLAN with the AUD following the data this week.</li>\r\n 	<li>Formulate a strategy re EUR long and JPY short trades.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5.4 SUMMARY - LONG TERM CORE TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/LTSUMMARY-09022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10944\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/LTSUMMARY-09022018-1024x875.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"875\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.5. CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.5.1. CURRENT LIVE TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/LIVE-TRADES-09022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10943\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/LIVE-TRADES-09022018-1024x997.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"997\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u>5.5.2. CURRENT LIMIT ORDER TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/LIMIT-ORDERS-09022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10942\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/LIMIT-ORDERS-09022018-1024x808.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"808\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.6. FX BROKER NEWS and MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\nOne factor I have noticed is that there are more brokers “coming out”, not from the closet, but from behind the closed doors of their offices and screens offering webinars to try and convert clients and attract new clients.\r\n\r\nTimes must be hard.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE FINAL SHOT:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #165 PREMIUM SERVICE\r\nDATE: 10th February 2018','ARE CENTRAL BANKS BEHIND THE CURVE?','','inherit','closed','closed','','10962-revision-v1','','','2018-02-10 06:53:24','2018-02-10 11:53:24','',10962,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/10962-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(10965,1,'2018-02-10 07:26:07','2018-02-10 12:26:07','&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE FIRST SHOT:</strong><strong> </strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nWhere do I start with this week’s blog?\r\n\r\nDo I get a few of my usual expletive’s out of the way first?\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Holy Mother of God</li>\r\n 	<li>What the feck was that?</li>\r\n 	<li>Well, glaze my nipples and call me Rita!</li>\r\n 	<li>Jesus, Mary and Joseph</li>\r\n 	<li>It’s like putting lipstick on a pig… but it’s still a pig</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nI feel a bit better after that…\r\n\r\nSo many subjects to choose from this week plus, I have so many pieces of paper with memory joggers noted on them to choose from it’s hard to know what to use never mind where to start from.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>STOCK MARKET CORRECTION</li>\r\n 	<li>BOND YIELDS ON A TEAR</li>\r\n 	<li>OVER BOUGHT CONDITIONS IN STOCK MARKET</li>\r\n 	<li>RAMIFICATIONS OF A RISING U.S. DEFICIT TO THE U.S. &amp; WORLD</li>\r\n 	<li>U.S. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK WITH STOCK MARKET FALL</li>\r\n 	<li>INTER-MARKET CORRELATIONS OUT OF THE WINDOW</li>\r\n 	<li>CREDIBILITY OF CENTRAL BANK ANNOUNCEMENTS</li>\r\n 	<li>STRENGTH OF THE USD (DXY) SPIKING OFF LOWS</li>\r\n 	<li>BANK OF ENGLAND TURNING HAWKISH</li>\r\n 	<li>CHINA DATA MODERATING, HOW WILL THIS MANIFEST ITSELF MOVING FORWARD</li>\r\n 	<li>IS THE UK GOING TO WALK AWAY FROM BREXIT WITH A “NO DEAL”?</li>\r\n 	<li>SHOULD THE UK TELL THE EU27 TO SHOVE THE BREXIT PROPOSALS WHERE THE SUN DOESN’T SHINE?</li>\r\n 	<li>COMMODITY WEAKNESS STARTING TO SHOW… WHAT ARE THE RAMIFICATIONS</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nIn this section I have decided to touch on the media and how we as traders are basically treated as mushrooms fed shi*e and kept pretty much in the dark.\r\n\r\nSince Friday Feb 2nd, I have had both CNBC and BLOOMBERG broadcasting alongside my trading screens set up. I wonder why I have had multiple headaches and a migraine in the last week, damn obvious when you think about it.\r\n\r\nBack on point…\r\n\r\nIf you recall when the GFC happened, no-one admitted to losing money. Every clever fecker on CNBC saw it coming and dropped into cash ahead of the carnage. Now I am not comparing the recent correction in stocks to the GFC in size or world impact, there is no comparison, but I am comparing what we receive from the media about it.\r\n\r\nWe as traders like to have data. We live, eat and breathe data. I get it, sometimes moves just happen. But out of every move there are winners and losers.\r\n\r\nWe are led to believe, and this makes complete sense to me, that the CORRECTION was caused mainly by the inflation effect of the average hourly earnings increase to 2.9% annualized contained in the Non-Farm data release on 2nd February.  The move up in earnings, spooked the bond markets because of the inflation ramifications and in so doing, created a domino effect, the commodity area started to react, then FX, albeit subdued, and finally Wall Street the equity markets suddenly heard the penny drop.\r\n\r\n“FECK ME; HOLY CRAP” … maybe the FED may actually raise interest rates 3 or 4 times this year!\r\n\r\nThe domino effect, the circle was now complete. The rest is history as they say.\r\n\r\nA week last Friday was a roller coaster market. The following Monday the DOW JONES closed over 1,100 points lower, a similar loss of 1,032 points was noted on Thursday last week. Both the DOW and broader based S&amp;P entered CORRECTION territory as they had slipped 10% from their highs.\r\n\r\nMillions of dollars have been wiped out. Last week was the worse week on Wall Street since 2011.\r\n\r\nSo; who was selling?\r\n\r\nI haven’t got a fecking clue.\r\n\r\nAll I have heard from BLOOMBERG and CNBC was everyone was holding tight looking for the right opportunity to step back in with value picks.\r\n\r\nFFS… someone, some institution was shorting the market.\r\n\r\nPlease forgive me if CNBC or BLOOMBERG found a seller, when I was taking a nap, having a sleep, eating or having a bathroom break, but I never heard or saw a name not even a rumour.\r\n\r\nCan you believe this? Trillions of dollars were lost in the U.S. alone; once again no one on TV reported losing money, and no-one was shorting.\r\n\r\nIt’s a bloody miracle… I have witnessed a market move of biblical proportions “THE IMMACULATE CORRECTION”\r\n\r\nWhat I do know is that a great deal of retail money came into the market at the start of 2018 and as usual “Ma and Pa” investors seem to be hit again. They always enter at the highs and lose and get out at the bottom just before the spike higher once again. I can only guess what it must be like for some retail investors, or any investors for that matter looking at their statements this weekend.\r\n\r\nWhat do I take from this…\r\n\r\nI have blogged about this so many times over the past 5 years or so and you can obviously draw your own conclusions, but, I am now more than ever of the belief after 10 years of trading that in FOREX: -\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">It is all about you\r\nYou have your machines\r\nYou have your charts\r\nYou have your analysis\r\nIt is you versus the world\r\nIt is all down to you\r\nYou will rise or fall on your decisions\r\nWhether you are a Fundamental or Technical trader</p>\r\n\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>The media is biased. It only wants to promote “GOOD NEWS” because “BAD NEWS” does not get advertising revenue.</li>\r\n 	<li>Banking analysts SELL their latest book. They do this whether it’s the right thing to do or not.</li>\r\n 	<li>Twitter feeds and other Social media can be a very dangerous place to ascertain quality data.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThe CORRECTION has happened. The unwinding will go on for some time yet as other influences come into play. The markets were very badly positioned going into NFP and this complacency has been whacked in good old Tony Soprano style.\r\n\r\nWithout doubt, some trading accounts were blown apart and some people lost a ton of cash. On the other side, somewhere somebody must have made a ton of cash shorting?\r\n\r\nWith all the above being said…\r\n\r\nI can guarantee you that following last week there will be a lot of retail investors looking at their statements and weeping.\r\n\r\nAll eyes will be on CPi data this week.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong> MARKET OVERVIEW – MY THOUGHTS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>ARE CENTRAL BANKS BEHIND THE CURVE? </strong></span></p>\r\nI am a FUNDAMENTAL trader. 90% of the time I trade in the direction of my MICRO views and thoughts.\r\n\r\nObviously, my beliefs are built around the various policies of the Central banks. Their Monetary Statements are crucial to my thoughts along with the day to day economic data.\r\n\r\nMy initial observations are that when times are distressed they are quick to act they are masters of supplying liquidity, masters of trying to stabilize markets, removing uncertainties by promising whatever it takes to try to stabilize matters. The GFC and more recently BREXIT being cases of recent Central Bank intervention to support the general marketplace. Prior to these events, Central Bank governors or Presidents appeared to be wound up very tightly. Almost overnight it seemed that they all took stool softeners, which relaxed them and within what seemed like hours they were flooding the markets with financial accommodation and promises to keep banks liquid.\r\n\r\nWe are now moving away from “accommodation” after the longest period of recovery that I can think of and Central Banks are now moving to a policy of normalization.\r\n\r\nSome are further down this road than others as the world economies recover at different paces.\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>FED: In pole position to normalization.\r\nCurrent rate is 1.5%, with 3 or maybe 4 rate hikes this year.</li>\r\n 	<li>BOE: Initially maybe a little reluctant to normalize but now moving up.\r\nCurrent rate is 0.50%, with possibly 2 rate increases this year.</li>\r\n 	<li>BOC: On the road to higher rates. The BOC is data dependent.\r\nCurrent rate is 1.25%, with possibly 2 more rate hikes this year.</li>\r\n 	<li>RBA: Unmoved and unchanged since August 2016.\r\nCurrent rate is 1.50%, however analysts have a hike factored for Q4 2018.</li>\r\n 	<li>RBNZ: On hold with the last change being in November 2016.\r\nCurrent rate is 1.75%, it was believed the next hike would be in 2019. However, the timing may be brought forward into Q4 2018.</li>\r\n 	<li>ECB: On hold with no plans to normalize interest rates this year.\r\nCurrent rate is 0.00%. Q3 this year, news re normalization should be updated to the markets.</li>\r\n 	<li>BOJ: On hold with no plans to normalize.\r\nCurrent rate is negative 0.10%.</li>\r\n 	<li>SNB: On hold with no plans to change.\r\nCurrent rate is negative 0.75%</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nFrom this list of the major USD crosses, it is clear to see that we will be moving to a position of normalization from different places, but they are all from a very low base level.\r\n\r\nMy question is; Are the Central Banks behind the curve?\r\n\r\nLet me use the FED as an example, initially.\r\n\r\nOne of the reasons provided by some analysts over the current stock market sell-off is that following the last good print of the Non-Farm payrolls number and the fact that wages started to accelerate resulting in possible inflation finally appearing, that caused the penny to drop. The FED had said at the end of 2017, based upon their view of the U.S. economy that 3 maybe 4 increases in U.S. interest rates could be taking place in 2018.\r\n\r\nThe markets being complacent ignored this, believing it probably would not happen. Non-farm data was good, the FED speakers that followed revisited the messages posted in 2017 and bond yields started to move. Commodity prices started to follow and then FX started to react very noticeably through the USD (DXY) strengthening.\r\n\r\nFinally, Wall Street must have had a FFS and WTF moment. The rest is as often said, history. We should note, despite the changes in stock market prices lower, this has little or no effect on the economic outlook for the U.S. That message would change when people’s spending habits are seen to change.\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, this is all down to market complacency.\r\n\r\nHowever, having said that, is the FED behind the curve based on the conditions in the U.S. economy?\r\n\r\nFrom my perspective YES… without doubt and the fumbling and dithering by the FED have a part to play in creating an unstable environment. The very primary function that they are entrusted to prevent.\r\n\r\nThe conversations that take place regarding whether members are DOVISH or HAWKISH rumbles on. I have blogged on numerous occasions that Janet Yellen is always a DOVE. Once a DOVE always a DOVE. This means caution, or in my words dithering.\r\n\r\nJerome Powell her replacement as FED chairman has a tough job. Under Yellen and Bernanke, we never saw volatility like we have just seen. On the very day Powell gets sworn in the markets go mental. Can you connect this? I do not think so for the reasons already provided about how this MARKET CORRECTION came about.\r\n\r\nBut the facts are the U.S. economy is in fair shape and confidence is good.\r\n\r\nI would not be surprised that if in March, Powell hits the market with a 0.50% rate hike, following with 0.25% in September and similar again in December. This would send a message and definitely bring the Fed in line with the curve. Doing 0.25% in March and again in June does NOT in my opinion send the correct message of control.\r\n\r\nStock markets are going to correct. As often said, the recent rise in equities over the past few years has been the most hated BULL RALLY in the history of stock market moves.\r\n\r\nIt’s now time to look forward and manage. The FED needs to be the Fed once again and take control. Be assertive, give the message of strength and outline the path forward. Had the FED been more assertive in the first place the rise in bond yields may not have been such a shock to the system.\r\n\r\nMoving away from the FED…\r\n\r\nMark Carney at the BOE is really the only other Central Bank that has to deal with inflation. This issue for Carney, is that he has to deal with the complexities of BREXIT at the same time. Political fumbling’s and a weak power position for Theresa may as UK Prime Minister must keep him up at night.\r\n\r\nHe does not to coin a phrase, have much behind the clock in case of emergency. With interest rates at 0.50% I suppose he can match the ECB at 0.00%!\r\n\r\nUK inflation is receding as the GBP/USD moves higher but cable is pressured at the moment. Above 1.4000, I would imagine gives him comfort as well as the key exchange rate being above that psychological number.\r\n\r\nAcross the English Channel in mainland Europe, the ECB is at 0.00% with QE still in place until at least Q3 this year.\r\n\r\nThere is little to no inflation in the EUROZONE, but the economic data is without doubt improving. More so in Northern Europe than the Mediterranean area, but data is moving to the positive side.\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, the ECB is behind the curve. Mario Draghi, ECB President has a huge, massive, bigly message to deliver without creating uncertainty in the markets. Right now, one could argue the stubbornness of the ECB to properly acknowledge good data and “Face the music” of the markets will come back and bite hard.\r\n\r\nTherefore, in my opinion, one of key functions of Central Banks; to remove uncertainty and maintain stability in the markets is being placed in jeopardy because they do not act fast enough.\r\n\r\nThis opens up a new debate about the data they receive on which to base policy on. Is it good data? Is it timely? Is it accurate?\r\n\r\nThis then leads into the quality, the experience and abilities of those in the senior positions. Do they have what it takes to manage, interpret data and more importantly have the ability to deliver the message? Can they direct effectively?\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>USD SUPPORT and RESISTANCE with my BIAS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/TCHART-09022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-10954\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/TCHART-09022018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1020\" height=\"884\" /></a></strong><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE PREMIUM SERVICE TRADING SUMMARY:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\n(Incorporating the last 5 PREMIUM SERVICE TRADES)\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/PS-SUMMARY-09022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10945\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/PS-SUMMARY-09022018-1024x863.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"863\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(This section is for PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS ONLY)\r\n\r\n<u>5.1. TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.2. SENTIMENT,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3. THE WEEK AHEAD:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.1. ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES THAT INTEREST ME:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.2. MY KEY EVENTS ON THIS WEEK’S CALENDAR AND WHY:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.3. HOW I WILL APPROACH and TRADE THE MARKET THIS WEEK</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.4. MY “MACRO” TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEK AHEAD:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.4 SUMMARY - LONG TERM CORE TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.5. CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.6. FX BROKER NEWS and MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE FINAL SHOT:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #269 FREE NEWSLETTER\r\nDATE: 10th February 2018','ARE CENTRAL BANKS BEHIND THE CURVE?','','publish','open','closed','','central-banks-behind-curve','','','2018-02-11 18:48:06','2018-02-11 23:48:06','',0,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?p=10965',0,'post','',0),(10967,1,'2018-02-11 18:48:06','2018-02-11 23:48:06','&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE FIRST SHOT:</strong><strong> </strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nWhere do I start with this week’s blog?\r\n\r\nDo I get a few of my usual expletive’s out of the way first?\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Holy Mother of God</li>\r\n 	<li>What the feck was that?</li>\r\n 	<li>Well, glaze my nipples and call me Rita!</li>\r\n 	<li>Jesus, Mary and Joseph</li>\r\n 	<li>It’s like putting lipstick on a pig… but it’s still a pig</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nI feel a bit better after that…\r\n\r\nSo many subjects to choose from this week plus, I have so many pieces of paper with memory joggers noted on them to choose from it’s hard to know what to use never mind where to start from.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>STOCK MARKET CORRECTION</li>\r\n 	<li>BOND YIELDS ON A TEAR</li>\r\n 	<li>OVER BOUGHT CONDITIONS IN STOCK MARKET</li>\r\n 	<li>RAMIFICATIONS OF A RISING U.S. DEFICIT TO THE U.S. &amp; WORLD</li>\r\n 	<li>U.S. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK WITH STOCK MARKET FALL</li>\r\n 	<li>INTER-MARKET CORRELATIONS OUT OF THE WINDOW</li>\r\n 	<li>CREDIBILITY OF CENTRAL BANK ANNOUNCEMENTS</li>\r\n 	<li>STRENGTH OF THE USD (DXY) SPIKING OFF LOWS</li>\r\n 	<li>BANK OF ENGLAND TURNING HAWKISH</li>\r\n 	<li>CHINA DATA MODERATING, HOW WILL THIS MANIFEST ITSELF MOVING FORWARD</li>\r\n 	<li>IS THE UK GOING TO WALK AWAY FROM BREXIT WITH A “NO DEAL”?</li>\r\n 	<li>SHOULD THE UK TELL THE EU27 TO SHOVE THE BREXIT PROPOSALS WHERE THE SUN DOESN’T SHINE?</li>\r\n 	<li>COMMODITY WEAKNESS STARTING TO SHOW… WHAT ARE THE RAMIFICATIONS</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nIn this section I have decided to touch on the media and how we as traders are basically treated as mushrooms fed shi*e and kept pretty much in the dark.\r\n\r\nSince Friday Feb 2nd, I have had both CNBC and BLOOMBERG broadcasting alongside my trading screens set up. I wonder why I have had multiple headaches and a migraine in the last week, damn obvious when you think about it.\r\n\r\nBack on point…\r\n\r\nIf you recall when the GFC happened, no-one admitted to losing money. Every clever fecker on CNBC saw it coming and dropped into cash ahead of the carnage. Now I am not comparing the recent correction in stocks to the GFC in size or world impact, there is no comparison, but I am comparing what we receive from the media about it.\r\n\r\nWe as traders like to have data. We live, eat and breathe data. I get it, sometimes moves just happen. But out of every move there are winners and losers.\r\n\r\nWe are led to believe, and this makes complete sense to me, that the CORRECTION was caused mainly by the inflation effect of the average hourly earnings increase to 2.9% annualized contained in the Non-Farm data release on 2nd February.  The move up in earnings, spooked the bond markets because of the inflation ramifications and in so doing, created a domino effect, the commodity area started to react, then FX, albeit subdued, and finally Wall Street the equity markets suddenly heard the penny drop.\r\n\r\n“FECK ME; HOLY CRAP” … maybe the FED may actually raise interest rates 3 or 4 times this year!\r\n\r\nThe domino effect, the circle was now complete. The rest is history as they say.\r\n\r\nA week last Friday was a roller coaster market. The following Monday the DOW JONES closed over 1,100 points lower, a similar loss of 1,032 points was noted on Thursday last week. Both the DOW and broader based S&amp;P entered CORRECTION territory as they had slipped 10% from their highs.\r\n\r\nMillions of dollars have been wiped out. Last week was the worse week on Wall Street since 2011.\r\n\r\nSo; who was selling?\r\n\r\nI haven’t got a fecking clue.\r\n\r\nAll I have heard from BLOOMBERG and CNBC was everyone was holding tight looking for the right opportunity to step back in with value picks.\r\n\r\nFFS… someone, some institution was shorting the market.\r\n\r\nPlease forgive me if CNBC or BLOOMBERG found a seller, when I was taking a nap, having a sleep, eating or having a bathroom break, but I never heard or saw a name not even a rumour.\r\n\r\nCan you believe this? Trillions of dollars were lost in the U.S. alone; once again no one on TV reported losing money, and no-one was shorting.\r\n\r\nIt’s a bloody miracle… I have witnessed a market move of biblical proportions “THE IMMACULATE CORRECTION”\r\n\r\nWhat I do know is that a great deal of retail money came into the market at the start of 2018 and as usual “Ma and Pa” investors seem to be hit again. They always enter at the highs and lose and get out at the bottom just before the spike higher once again. I can only guess what it must be like for some retail investors, or any investors for that matter looking at their statements this weekend.\r\n\r\nWhat do I take from this…\r\n\r\nI have blogged about this so many times over the past 5 years or so and you can obviously draw your own conclusions, but, I am now more than ever of the belief after 10 years of trading that in FOREX: -\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">It is all about you\r\nYou have your machines\r\nYou have your charts\r\nYou have your analysis\r\nIt is you versus the world\r\nIt is all down to you\r\nYou will rise or fall on your decisions\r\nWhether you are a Fundamental or Technical trader</p>\r\n\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>The media is biased. It only wants to promote “GOOD NEWS” because “BAD NEWS” does not get advertising revenue.</li>\r\n 	<li>Banking analysts SELL their latest book. They do this whether it’s the right thing to do or not.</li>\r\n 	<li>Twitter feeds and other Social media can be a very dangerous place to ascertain quality data.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThe CORRECTION has happened. The unwinding will go on for some time yet as other influences come into play. The markets were very badly positioned going into NFP and this complacency has been whacked in good old Tony Soprano style.\r\n\r\nWithout doubt, some trading accounts were blown apart and some people lost a ton of cash. On the other side, somewhere somebody must have made a ton of cash shorting?\r\n\r\nWith all the above being said…\r\n\r\nI can guarantee you that following last week there will be a lot of retail investors looking at their statements and weeping.\r\n\r\nAll eyes will be on CPi data this week.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong> MARKET OVERVIEW – MY THOUGHTS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>ARE CENTRAL BANKS BEHIND THE CURVE? </strong></span></p>\r\nI am a FUNDAMENTAL trader. 90% of the time I trade in the direction of my MICRO views and thoughts.\r\n\r\nObviously, my beliefs are built around the various policies of the Central banks. Their Monetary Statements are crucial to my thoughts along with the day to day economic data.\r\n\r\nMy initial observations are that when times are distressed they are quick to act they are masters of supplying liquidity, masters of trying to stabilize markets, removing uncertainties by promising whatever it takes to try to stabilize matters. The GFC and more recently BREXIT being cases of recent Central Bank intervention to support the general marketplace. Prior to these events, Central Bank governors or Presidents appeared to be wound up very tightly. Almost overnight it seemed that they all took stool softeners, which relaxed them and within what seemed like hours they were flooding the markets with financial accommodation and promises to keep banks liquid.\r\n\r\nWe are now moving away from “accommodation” after the longest period of recovery that I can think of and Central Banks are now moving to a policy of normalization.\r\n\r\nSome are further down this road than others as the world economies recover at different paces.\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>FED: In pole position to normalization.\r\nCurrent rate is 1.5%, with 3 or maybe 4 rate hikes this year.</li>\r\n 	<li>BOE: Initially maybe a little reluctant to normalize but now moving up.\r\nCurrent rate is 0.50%, with possibly 2 rate increases this year.</li>\r\n 	<li>BOC: On the road to higher rates. The BOC is data dependent.\r\nCurrent rate is 1.25%, with possibly 2 more rate hikes this year.</li>\r\n 	<li>RBA: Unmoved and unchanged since August 2016.\r\nCurrent rate is 1.50%, however analysts have a hike factored for Q4 2018.</li>\r\n 	<li>RBNZ: On hold with the last change being in November 2016.\r\nCurrent rate is 1.75%, it was believed the next hike would be in 2019. However, the timing may be brought forward into Q4 2018.</li>\r\n 	<li>ECB: On hold with no plans to normalize interest rates this year.\r\nCurrent rate is 0.00%. Q3 this year, news re normalization should be updated to the markets.</li>\r\n 	<li>BOJ: On hold with no plans to normalize.\r\nCurrent rate is negative 0.10%.</li>\r\n 	<li>SNB: On hold with no plans to change.\r\nCurrent rate is negative 0.75%</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nFrom this list of the major USD crosses, it is clear to see that we will be moving to a position of normalization from different places, but they are all from a very low base level.\r\n\r\nMy question is; Are the Central Banks behind the curve?\r\n\r\nLet me use the FED as an example, initially.\r\n\r\nOne of the reasons provided by some analysts over the current stock market sell-off is that following the last good print of the Non-Farm payrolls number and the fact that wages started to accelerate resulting in possible inflation finally appearing, that caused the penny to drop. The FED had said at the end of 2017, based upon their view of the U.S. economy that 3 maybe 4 increases in U.S. interest rates could be taking place in 2018.\r\n\r\nThe markets being complacent ignored this, believing it probably would not happen. Non-farm data was good, the FED speakers that followed revisited the messages posted in 2017 and bond yields started to move. Commodity prices started to follow and then FX started to react very noticeably through the USD (DXY) strengthening.\r\n\r\nFinally, Wall Street must have had a FFS and WTF moment. The rest is as often said, history. We should note, despite the changes in stock market prices lower, this has little or no effect on the economic outlook for the U.S. That message would change when people’s spending habits are seen to change.\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, this is all down to market complacency.\r\n\r\nHowever, having said that, is the FED behind the curve based on the conditions in the U.S. economy?\r\n\r\nFrom my perspective YES… without doubt and the fumbling and dithering by the FED have a part to play in creating an unstable environment. The very primary function that they are entrusted to prevent.\r\n\r\nThe conversations that take place regarding whether members are DOVISH or HAWKISH rumbles on. I have blogged on numerous occasions that Janet Yellen is always a DOVE. Once a DOVE always a DOVE. This means caution, or in my words dithering.\r\n\r\nJerome Powell her replacement as FED chairman has a tough job. Under Yellen and Bernanke, we never saw volatility like we have just seen. On the very day Powell gets sworn in the markets go mental. Can you connect this? I do not think so for the reasons already provided about how this MARKET CORRECTION came about.\r\n\r\nBut the facts are the U.S. economy is in fair shape and confidence is good.\r\n\r\nI would not be surprised that if in March, Powell hits the market with a 0.50% rate hike, following with 0.25% in September and similar again in December. This would send a message and definitely bring the Fed in line with the curve. Doing 0.25% in March and again in June does NOT in my opinion send the correct message of control.\r\n\r\nStock markets are going to correct. As often said, the recent rise in equities over the past few years has been the most hated BULL RALLY in the history of stock market moves.\r\n\r\nIt’s now time to look forward and manage. The FED needs to be the Fed once again and take control. Be assertive, give the message of strength and outline the path forward. Had the FED been more assertive in the first place the rise in bond yields may not have been such a shock to the system.\r\n\r\nMoving away from the FED…\r\n\r\nMark Carney at the BOE is really the only other Central Bank that has to deal with inflation. This issue for Carney, is that he has to deal with the complexities of BREXIT at the same time. Political fumbling’s and a weak power position for Theresa may as UK Prime Minister must keep him up at night.\r\n\r\nHe does not to coin a phrase, have much behind the clock in case of emergency. With interest rates at 0.50% I suppose he can match the ECB at 0.00%!\r\n\r\nUK inflation is receding as the GBP/USD moves higher but cable is pressured at the moment. Above 1.4000, I would imagine gives him comfort as well as the key exchange rate being above that psychological number.\r\n\r\nAcross the English Channel in mainland Europe, the ECB is at 0.00% with QE still in place until at least Q3 this year.\r\n\r\nThere is little to no inflation in the EUROZONE, but the economic data is without doubt improving. More so in Northern Europe than the Mediterranean area, but data is moving to the positive side.\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, the ECB is behind the curve. Mario Draghi, ECB President has a huge, massive, bigly message to deliver without creating uncertainty in the markets. Right now, one could argue the stubbornness of the ECB to properly acknowledge good data and “Face the music” of the markets will come back and bite hard.\r\n\r\nTherefore, in my opinion, one of key functions of Central Banks; to remove uncertainty and maintain stability in the markets is being placed in jeopardy because they do not act fast enough.\r\n\r\nThis opens up a new debate about the data they receive on which to base policy on. Is it good data? Is it timely? Is it accurate?\r\n\r\nThis then leads into the quality, the experience and abilities of those in the senior positions. Do they have what it takes to manage, interpret data and more importantly have the ability to deliver the message? Can they direct effectively?\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>USD SUPPORT and RESISTANCE with my BIAS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/TCHART-09022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-10954\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/TCHART-09022018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1020\" height=\"884\" /></a></strong><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE PREMIUM SERVICE TRADING SUMMARY:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\n(Incorporating the last 5 PREMIUM SERVICE TRADES)\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/PS-SUMMARY-09022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10945\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/PS-SUMMARY-09022018-1024x863.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"863\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(This section is for PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS ONLY)\r\n\r\n<u>5.1. TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.2. SENTIMENT,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3. THE WEEK AHEAD:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.1. ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES THAT INTEREST ME:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.2. MY KEY EVENTS ON THIS WEEK’S CALENDAR AND WHY:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.3. HOW I WILL APPROACH and TRADE THE MARKET THIS WEEK</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.4. MY “MACRO” TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEK AHEAD:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.4 SUMMARY - LONG TERM CORE TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.5. CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.6. FX BROKER NEWS and MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE FINAL SHOT:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #269 FREE NEWSLETTER\r\nDATE: 10th February 2018','ARE CENTRAL BANKS BEHIND THE CURVE?','','inherit','closed','closed','','10965-revision-v1','','','2018-02-11 18:48:06','2018-02-11 23:48:06','',10965,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/10965-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(10966,1,'2018-02-10 07:26:07','2018-02-10 12:26:07','&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE FIRST SHOT:</strong><strong> </strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nWhere do I start with this week’s blog?\r\n\r\nDo I get a few of my usual expletive’s out of the way first?\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Holy Mother of God</li>\r\n 	<li>What the feck was that?</li>\r\n 	<li>Well, glaze my nipples and call me Rita!</li>\r\n 	<li>Jesus, Mary and Joseph</li>\r\n 	<li>It’s like putting lipstick on a pig… but it’s still a pig</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nI feel a bit better after that…\r\n\r\nSo many subjects to choose from this week plus, I have so many pieces of paper with memory joggers noted on them to choose from it’s hard to know what to use never mind where to start from.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>STOCK MARKET CORRECTION</li>\r\n 	<li>BOND YIELDS ON A TEAR</li>\r\n 	<li>OVER BOUGHT CONDITIONS IN STOCK MARKET</li>\r\n 	<li>RAMIFICATIONS OF A RISING U.S. DEFICIT TO THE U.S. &amp; WORLD</li>\r\n 	<li>S. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK WITH STOCK MARKET FALL</li>\r\n 	<li>INTER-MARKET CORRELATIONS OUT OF THE WINDOW</li>\r\n 	<li>CREDIBILITY OF CENTRAL BANK ANNOUNCEMENTS</li>\r\n 	<li>STRENGTH OF THE USD (DXY) SPIKING OFF LOWS</li>\r\n 	<li>BANK OF ENGLAND TURNING HAWKISH</li>\r\n 	<li>CHINA DATA MODERATING, HOW WILL THIS MANIFEST ITSELF MOVING FORWARD</li>\r\n 	<li>IS THE UK GOING TO WALK AWAY FROM BREXIT WITH A “NO DEAL”?</li>\r\n 	<li>SHOULD THE UK TELL THE EU27 TO SHOVE THE BREXIT PROPOSALS WHERE THE SUN DOESN’T SHINE?</li>\r\n 	<li>COMMODITY WEAKNESS STARTING TO SHOW… WHAT ARE THE RAMIFICATIONS</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nIn this section I have decided to touch on the media and how we as traders are basically treated as mushrooms fed shi*e and kept pretty much in the dark.\r\n\r\nSince Friday Feb 2nd, I have had both CNBC and BLOOMBERG broadcasting alongside my trading screens set up. I wonder why I have had multiple headaches and a migraine in the last week, damn obvious when you think about it.\r\n\r\nBack on point…\r\n\r\nIf you recall when the GFC happened, no-one admitted to losing money. Every clever fecker on CNBC saw it coming and dropped into cash ahead of the carnage. Now I am not comparing the recent correction in stocks to the GFC in size or world impact, there is no comparison, but I am comparing what we receive from the media about it.\r\n\r\nWe as traders like to have data. We live, eat and breathe data. I get it, sometimes moves just happen. But out of every move there are winners and losers.\r\n\r\nWe are led to believe, and this makes complete sense to me, that the CORRECTION was caused mainly by the inflation effect of the average hourly earnings increase to 2.9% annualized contained in the Non-Farm data release on 2nd February.  The move up in earnings, spooked the bond markets because of the inflation ramifications and in so doing, created a domino effect, the commodity area started to react, then FX, albeit subdued, and finally Wall Street the equity markets suddenly heard the penny drop.\r\n\r\n“FECK ME; HOLY CRAP” … maybe the FED may actually raise interest rates 3 or 4 times this year!\r\n\r\nThe domino effect, the circle was now complete. The rest is history as they say.\r\n\r\nA week last Friday was a roller coaster market. The following Monday the DOW JONES closed over 1,100 points lower, a similar loss of 1,032 points was noted on Thursday last week. Both the DOW and broader based S&amp;P entered CORRECTION territory as they had slipped 10% from their highs.\r\n\r\nMillions of dollars have been wiped out. Last week was the worse week on Wall Street since 2011.\r\n\r\nSo; who was selling?\r\n\r\nI haven’t got a fecking clue.\r\n\r\nAll I have heard from BLOOMBERG and CNBC was everyone was holding tight looking for the right opportunity to step back in with value picks.\r\n\r\nFFS… someone, some institution was shorting the market.\r\n\r\nPlease forgive me if CNBC or BLOOMBERG found a seller, when I was taking a nap, having a sleep, eating or having a bathroom break, but I never heard or saw a name not even a rumour.\r\n\r\nCan you believe this? Trillions of dollars were lost in the U.S. alone; once again no one on TV reported losing money, and no-one was shorting.\r\n\r\nIt’s a bloody miracle… I have witnessed a market move of biblical proportions “THE IMMACULATE CORRECTION”\r\n\r\nWhat I do know is that a great deal of retail money came into the market at the start of 2018 and as usual “Ma and Pa” investors seem to be hit again. They always enter at the highs and lose and get out at the bottom just before the spike higher once again. I can only guess what it must be like for some retail investors, or any investors for that matter looking at their statements this weekend.\r\n\r\nWhat do I take from this…\r\n\r\nI have blogged about this so many times over the past 5 years or so and you can obviously draw your own conclusions, but, I am now more than ever of the belief after 10 years of trading that in FOREX: -\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">It is all about you\r\nYou have your machines\r\nYou have your charts\r\nYou have your analysis\r\nIt is you versus the world\r\nIt is all down to you\r\nYou will rise or fall on your decisions\r\nWhether you are a Fundamental or Technical trader</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"></p>\r\n\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>The media is biased. It only wants to promote “GOOD NEWS” because “BAD NEWS” does not get advertising revenue.</li>\r\n 	<li>Banking analysts SELL their latest book. They do this whether it’s the right thing to do or not.</li>\r\n 	<li>Twitter feeds and other Social media can be a very dangerous place to ascertain quality data.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThe CORRECTION has happened. The unwinding will go on for some time yet as other influences come into play. The markets were very badly positioned going into NFP and this complacency has been whacked in good old Tony Soprano style.\r\n\r\nWithout doubt, some trading accounts were blown apart and some people lost a ton of cash. On the other side, somewhere somebody must have made a ton of cash shorting?\r\n\r\nWith all the above being said…\r\n\r\nI can guarantee you that following last week there will be a lot of retail investors looking at their statements and weeping.\r\n\r\nAll eyes will be on CPi data this week.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong> MARKET OVERVIEW – MY THOUGHTS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>ARE CENTRAL BANKS BEHIND THE CURVE? </strong></span></p>\r\nI am a FUNDAMENTAL trader. 90% of the time I trade in the direction of my MICRO views and thoughts.\r\n\r\nObviously, my beliefs are built around the various policies of the Central banks. Their Monetary Statements are crucial to my thoughts along with the day to day economic data.\r\n\r\nMy initial observations are that when times are distressed they are quick to act they are masters of supplying liquidity, masters of trying to stabilize markets, removing uncertainties by promising whatever it takes to try to stabilize matters. The GFC and more recently BREXIT being cases of recent Central Bank intervention to support the general marketplace. Prior to these events, Central Bank governors or Presidents appeared to be wound up very tightly. Almost overnight it seemed that they all took stool softeners, which relaxed them and within what seemed like hours they were flooding the markets with financial accommodation and promises to keep banks liquid.\r\n\r\nWe are now moving away from “accommodation” after the longest period of recovery that I can think of and Central Banks are now moving to a policy of normalization.\r\n\r\nSome are further down this road than others as the world economies recover at different paces.\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>FED: In pole position to normalization.\r\nCurrent rate is 1.5%, with 3 or maybe 4 rate hikes this year.</li>\r\n 	<li>BOE: Initially maybe a little reluctant to normalize but now moving up.\r\nCurrent rate is 0.50%, with possibly 2 rate increases this year.</li>\r\n 	<li>BOC: On the road to higher rates. The BOC is data dependent.\r\nCurrent rate is 1.25%, with possibly 2 more rate hikes this year.</li>\r\n 	<li>RBA: Unmoved and unchanged since August 2016.\r\nCurrent rate is 1.50%, however analysts have a hike factored for Q4 2018.</li>\r\n 	<li>RBNZ: On hold with the last change being in November 2016.\r\nCurrent rate is 1.75%, it was believed the next hike would be in 2019. However, the timing may be brought forward into Q4 2018.</li>\r\n 	<li>ECB: On hold with no plans to normalize interest rates this year.\r\nCurrent rate is 0.00%. Q3 this year, news re normalization should be updated to the markets.</li>\r\n 	<li>BOJ: On hold with no plans to normalize.\r\nCurrent rate is negative 0.10%.</li>\r\n 	<li>SNB: On hold with no plans to change.\r\nCurrent rate is negative 0.75%</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nFrom this list of the major USD crosses, it is clear to see that we will be moving to a position of normalization from different places, but they are all from a very low base level.\r\n\r\nMy question is; Are the Central Banks behind the curve?\r\n\r\nLet me use the FED as an example, initially.\r\n\r\nOne of the reasons provided by some analysts over the current stock market sell-off is that following the last good print of the Non-Farm payrolls number and the fact that wages started to accelerate resulting in possible inflation finally appearing, that caused the penny to drop. The FED had said at the end of 2017, based upon their view of the U.S. economy that 3 maybe 4 increases in U.S. interest rates could be taking place in 2018.\r\n\r\nThe markets being complacent ignored this, believing it probably would not happen. Non-farm data was good, the FED speakers that followed revisited the messages posted in 2017 and bond yields started to move. Commodity prices started to follow and then FX started to react very noticeably through the USD (DXY) strengthening.\r\n\r\nFinally, Wall Street must have had a FFS and WTF moment. The rest is as often said, history. We should note, despite the changes in stock market prices lower, this has little or no effect on the economic outlook for the U.S. That message would change when people’s spending habits are seen to change.\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, this is all down to market complacency.\r\n\r\nHowever, having said that, is the FED behind the curve based on the conditions in the U.S. economy?\r\n\r\nFrom my perspective YES… without doubt and the fumbling and dithering by the FED have a part to play in creating an unstable environment. The very primary function that they are entrusted to prevent.\r\n\r\nThe conversations that take place regarding whether members are DOVISH or HAWKISH rumbles on. I have blogged on numerous occasions that Janet Yellen is always a DOVE. Once a DOVE always a DOVE. This means caution, or in my words dithering.\r\n\r\nJerome Powell her replacement as FED chairman has a tough job. Under Yellen and Bernanke, we never saw volatility like we have just seen. On the very day Powell gets sworn in the markets go mental. Can you connect this? I do not think so for the reasons already provided about how this MARKET CORRECTION came about.\r\n\r\nBut the facts are the U.S. economy is in fair shape and confidence is good.\r\n\r\nI would not be surprised that if in March, Powell hits the market with a 0.50% rate hike, following with 0.25% in September and similar again in December. This would send a message and definitely bring the Fed in line with the curve. Doing 0.25% in March and again in June does NOT in my opinion send the correct message of control.\r\n\r\nStock markets are going to correct. As often said, the recent rise in equities over the past few years has been the most hated BULL RALLY in the history of stock market moves.\r\n\r\nIt’s now time to look forward and manage. The FED needs to be the Fed once again and take control. Be assertive, give the message of strength and outline the path forward. Had the FED been more assertive in the first place the rise in bond yields may not have been such a shock to the system.\r\n\r\nMoving away from the FED…\r\n\r\nMark Carney at the BOE is really the only other Central Bank that has to deal with inflation. This issue for Carney, is that he has to deal with the complexities of BREXIT at the same time. Political fumbling’s and a weak power position for Theresa may as UK Prime Minister must keep him up at night.\r\n\r\nHe does not to coin a phrase, have much behind the clock in case of emergency. With interest rates at 0.50% I suppose he can match the ECB at 0.00%!\r\n\r\nUK inflation is receding as the GBP/USD moves higher but cable is pressured at the moment. Above 1.4000, I would imagine gives him comfort as well as the key exchange rate being above that psychological number.\r\n\r\nAcross the English Channel in mainland Europe, the ECB is at 0.00% with QE still in place until at least Q3 this year.\r\n\r\nThere is little to no inflation in the EUROZONE, but the economic data is without doubt improving. More so in Northern Europe than the Mediterranean area, but data is moving to the positive side.\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, the ECB is behind the curve. Mario Draghi, ECB President has a huge, massive, bigly message to deliver without creating uncertainty in the markets. Right now, one could argue the stubbornness of the ECB to properly acknowledge good data and “Face the music” of the markets will come back and bite hard.\r\n\r\nTherefore, in my opinion, one of key functions of Central Banks; to remove uncertainty and maintain stability in the markets is being placed in jeopardy because they do not act fast enough.\r\n\r\nThis opens up a new debate about the data they receive on which to base policy on. Is it good data? Is it timely? Is it accurate?\r\n\r\nThis then leads into the quality, the experience and abilities of those in the senior positions. Do they have what it takes to manage, interpret data and more importantly have the ability to deliver the message? Can they direct effectively?\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>USD SUPPORT and RESISTANCE with my BIAS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/TCHART-09022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-10954\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/TCHART-09022018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1020\" height=\"884\" /></a></strong><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE PREMIUM SERVICE TRADING SUMMARY:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\n(Incorporating the last 5 PREMIUM SERVICE TRADES)\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/PS-SUMMARY-09022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10945\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/PS-SUMMARY-09022018-1024x863.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"863\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(This section is for PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS ONLY)\r\n\r\n<u>5.1. TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.2. SENTIMENT,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3. THE WEEK AHEAD:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.1. ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES THAT INTEREST ME:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.2. MY KEY EVENTS ON THIS WEEK’S CALENDAR AND WHY:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.3. HOW I WILL APPROACH and TRADE THE MARKET THIS WEEK</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.4. MY “MACRO” TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEK AHEAD:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.4 SUMMARY - LONG TERM CORE TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.5. CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.6. FX BROKER NEWS and MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE FINAL SHOT:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #269 FREE NEWSLETTER\r\nDATE: 10th February 2018','ARE CENTRAL BANKS BEHIND THE CURVE?','','inherit','closed','closed','','10965-revision-v1','','','2018-02-10 07:26:07','2018-02-10 12:26:07','',10965,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/10965-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(10969,1,'2018-02-15 07:09:47','2018-02-15 12:09:47','&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThe previous week it was a DRAGHI THUNDERBOLT that hit the FX market and last week it was Mark Carney’s turn. Carney is seen as a bit of a DOVE more so than a HAWK by the market; I see him as a “Flip-Flopper” more than anything else, however last Thursday with the precision of one of Daenerys Targaryen’s dragons SPAT FIRE over the assembled and eagerly listening cable bulls.\r\n\r\nWe saw moves of 200 pips lower with GBP/USD and the crosses which are monsters at the best of times moved considerably more, GBP/AUD and GBP/NZD circa. 400 pips range on the day.\r\n\r\nFrom my own perspective, I did NOT play the BOE Super Thursday very well. I was expecting a rally on the announcement into which as I had written to PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers during the week I was looking to fade as I was expecting a DOVISH HIKE.\r\n\r\nWe had a DOVISH HIKE but the selloff started in the late Asian session from the prior day and continued through the European session. As the announcement came basically the selloff intensified.\r\n\r\nI was set up mentally for cable to fail, but not in the way it happened.\r\n\r\nI talk a great deal about RISK MANAGEMENT, TRADE MANAGEMENT and TRADING PSYCHOLOGY, which I am now calling MIND MANAGEMENT. I never had my MIND MANAGEMENT in the correct place.\r\n\r\nI only partially participated in the GBP move and made poor selections of trading pairs on the day. I banked small losses. Privately, I made reasonable $$$ scalping the market. Overall, however, I was very disappointed with my Super Thursday performance.\r\n\r\nWe move on…\r\n\r\nTHE PREMIUM SERVICE as at 31st October 2017, has now beaten its annual net pip target of 10,000 pips. To the end of October 2017, the pip total stands at 10,402 pips.\r\n\r\nI am delighted… Happy Days.\r\n\r\nThe 2016 total was a record at 13,575 pips. Whilst I have always beaten the 10,000-pip target since the PREMIUM SERVICE started in 2014, last year’s total will a tall order. But as it is often said… “Onwards and Upwards”.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong></strong><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong>&nbsp;</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>2.1: LOOKING BACK AT LAST WEEK’S NEWS.</u>\r\n\r\nHere is what tickled my fancy in the news last week as a currency trader.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>BOE</u></strong><u>: SUPER THURSDAY &amp; PMi DATA.</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nA few weeks ago, when Mark Carney announced that UK interest rates could be rising earlier than previously thought to fight off inflation which was running at an annual rate of c.3%, I wrote saying that “CARNEY COMES OUT OF THE CLOSET”.\r\n\r\nThis move from DOVE to HAWK meant that the cable which previously had been under pressure from BREXIT leapt up like a rat up a drainpipe and sped towards 1.3300. There was talk of a re-test of 52W highs around 1.3650.\r\n\r\nLast Thursday Carney announced basically a DOVISH 0.25% rate hike… a one and done event. His commentary was as DOVISH as it comes and the cable fell like a lead balloon.\r\n\r\nThe unwinding of cable longs started hours earlier as the realism of a DOVISH HIKE came more and more into the reality and traders of all sizes squared off positions.\r\n\r\nThe MPC vote was 7-2 in favour of the hike. The two dissenters being Jon Cunliffe and David Ramsden.\r\n\r\nThe main takeaways from Carney’s press conference were in my opinion: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>MPC sees wage growth picking up in 2018</li>\r\n 	<li>MPC believes that the tighter labour market will boost wages.</li>\r\n 	<li>BREXIT deal will affect the exchange rates</li>\r\n 	<li>Rates will be adjusted either up or down on a BREXIT resolution.</li>\r\n 	<li>MPC wants to use the Bank rate as an instrument of BOE policy rather than QE.</li>\r\n 	<li>Rates must be higher before reversing QE.</li>\r\n 	<li>Inflation back at 2% will help make BREXIT a success\r\n(God knows what the feck they were smoking to come up with this line!!</li>\r\n 	<li>UK rate decision not driven by the exchange rate….\r\n(My arse!!)</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nMy thoughts are that it was a mistake to raise rates. Asked by the press did he think it was a mistake, Mark Carney responded with it was a “nimble response” to an unprecedented set of circumstances. The fact that cable sold off only adds fuel to UK inflation. It was cables devaluation that is basically what has fueled the inflation position. Ironic that a rate hike caused cable to devalue again, the irony of that fact should not be lost on the MPC!\r\n\r\nUK interest rates are to remain low for an extended period well into 2019.\r\n\r\nWith the rate hike out of the way we can now concentrate on the main event… BREXIT\r\n\r\nUK PMi data last week was stronger than expected, and took me by surprise I only expected a beat with service PMi:\r\n\r\nConstruction              50.8 versus 48.3\r\nManufacturing           56.3 versus 55.8\r\nServices                      55.6 versus 53.3\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD:</u></strong><u> FOMC, FED CHAIR, GOP TAX PLAN, ADP &amp; NFP.</u>\r\n\r\nA huge amount of economic and political data last week from the U.S. All this and not even a mention of TWITTER.\r\n\r\nThe FED CHAIR announcement went off without incident. JEROME POWELL, subject to senate approval will replace Janet Yellen next February. When the announcement was made, I had to hold my head back to stop the blood from my nose bleed dripping all over my apple keyboard. It was such a shock to my body to have a TRUMP announcement without drama attached… total shock to my system.\r\n\r\nA couple of points for dinner table conversation about Janet Yellen’s tenure at the FED.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>When she became FED CHAIR the USD (DXY) was at 81.00.</li>\r\n 	<li>The DXY has been falling since TRUMPS inauguration 101.00.</li>\r\n 	<li>Today after 10 months of falling it still stands at 94.00.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nMy point here is that after the GFC when the DXY stood at 70.00, following on from Ben Bernanke she guided the DXY to about the mid-point given that in 2000 the DXY was at 120.00. Personally, without TRUMP the DXY would be well into triple digits by now.\r\n\r\nThe FOMC statement a day earlier passed us by without incident.  The FX market did its usual thing by the odd flexing here and there but to be honest it was an all “fur coat and no knickers” event.\r\n\r\nThe TAX PLAN release was for me, mixed into the background as the BOE press conference fall out was still in full swing. The previous day there was a rumour in the Asian session that reductions in the corporate tax rate would either be phased in or phased out, or both…. From what I can gather this was a bullsh*t rumour.\r\n\r\nWith regards to the jobs data; ADP was a nice bear 235k against an expectation of 202k. NFP missed at 261k versus 312k. The unemployment rate dipped from 4.2% to 4.1%. Hourly earnings 0.0% versus 0.2% expected.\r\n\r\nJobs data was poor so the USD strengthened go figure.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2: LOOKING AHEAD TO THIS COMING WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n2.2.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/ECON-DATA-0512017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10338\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/ECON-DATA-0512017-1024x705.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"705\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.2: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/TCHART-05112017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10339\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/TCHART-05112017-1024x844.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"844\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.3: USD – TRADING CHARTS and COMMENTARIES: </u>\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>EUR/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/EURUSD-D-05112017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10349\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/EURUSD-D-05112017-1024x411.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"411\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/GBPUSD-D-05112017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10350\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/GBPUSD-D-05112017-1024x411.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"411\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/AUDUSD-D-05112017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10348\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/AUDUSD-D-05112017-1024x411.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"411\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/NZDUSD-D-05112017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10351\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/NZDUSD-D-05112017-1024x411.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"411\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/USDCAD-D-05112017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10352\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/USDCAD-D-05112017-1024x411.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"411\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/USDCHF-D-05112017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10353\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/USDCHF-D-05112017-1024x411.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"411\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/USDJPY-D-05112017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10354\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/USDJPY-D-05112017-1024x411.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"411\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.4: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:</u>\r\n\r\nThe Antipodean currencies rule this week!\r\n\r\n<strong><u>NZD:</u></strong><u> RBNZ RATE STATEMENT &amp; PRESS CONFERENCE</u>.\r\n\r\nI am NOT expecting any fireworks this week. Grant aka “Frank” Spencer has already stated no change and dovish for an extended period.\r\n\r\nI will be looking to see what, if anything, is said vis-à-vis the new Labour Party coalition governments intentions to expand the role of the RBNZ.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>AUD:</u></strong><u> RBA RATE STATEMENT &amp; MONETARY POLICY STATEMENT.</u>\r\n\r\nI am not expecting any move on interest rates. Philip Lowe has been very straightforward since becoming governor. He is clear and unambiguous and his is his own man. He has been happy of late to remain neutral and is in no rush to increase interest rates, far from it.\r\n\r\nAs with most monetary policy and rate statements the “verbal’s” give us the clues. I am expecting more of the same. No fireworks just a status quo report.\r\n\r\nThis may change in 2018, but for now it is only the FED that has an open normalization policy on interest rates. This suits other currencies like the AUD because the result with FED policy should be that the USD strengthens based upon interest rate differentiation causing other currencies to weaken.\r\n\r\nA weaker currency is always preferred and this can be achieved by the likes of the RBA with no work. It’s all in theory done for them by the FED.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.5: HOW TO PLAY THE MARKET THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\nThere was a lot jammed into last week that made me believe that caution was the best route forward. Trading FX always has RISK involved and at the end of the day it’s all about MANAGING RISK in conjunction with both TRADE MANAGEMENT and MIND MANAGEMENT.\r\n\r\nLast week finished with USD strength returning and I see this renewed USD strength remaining with the markets into the early part of this week, if not more than that.\r\n\r\nGeopolitical factors such as “THE TRUMP GOODWILL TOUR OF ASIA”, which was given a good old dose U.S. hospitality with nuclear weapons loaded bombers flying up and down the Korean coast. It doesn’t bear thinking about.\r\n\r\nBREXIT and poor old Theresa May will hit the headlines this week now that Carney’s BOE super Thursday event is behind us. However, we should remember that moves in cable are still just one UK negative BREXIT announcement from a fall, or one positive announcement away from a spike higher.\r\n\r\nOIL appears to be settling around the USD$60.00 level. Anything higher will get the U.S. shale production lifting off which will drive prices back towards USD$50.00 per barrel.\r\n\r\nSo…\r\n\r\nWith that as my back drop how will I be approaching the FX market this week.\r\n\r\nWithout much economic data, this week and with the “RED” FX data emanating from mainly AUD and NZD, one would think I had a pretty clear plan in place. Unfortunately, with all the geopolitical nonsense around and with TRUMP off home soil the potential for gaffs is heightened.\r\n\r\nThe USD is news driven at the moment, and, if the USD is news driven almost everything else currency wise falls victim.\r\n\r\nI have cross rates that interest me and they are a great option away from the USD.  The JPY crosses are of interest but I never seem to personally have great success with them. Recently, the NZD/JPY has been good and the AUD/JPY is back on my RADAR once again after closing it just ahead of NFP last week. But with TRUMP in Asia maybe the JPY should not be such a focus. However, the parabolic rise in the NIKKEI does have me alert to JPY shorts.\r\n\r\nHaving written all that, I still see being long the USD as the immediate route. I do not think it will last for long as I see this USD strength technical and I expect the move higher to stop and then USD weakness will come back and force the DXY lower. (See the DXY chart below)\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/DXY-05112017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10340\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/DXY-05112017-1024x520.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"520\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nOverall, I would be looking to establish positions in cross rates. GBP crosses may need some time to wash out oversold conditions. EUR crosses long in the medium term excite me, but not quite yet.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is my own subscriber based Forex support service that offers subscribers my suggested trade set-ups and market commentaries.\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting the HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE tab.\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT 2017 PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\n\r\nPIPS ADDED LAST WEEK:           = +122 pips\r\nPIPS MONTH TO DATE:                = +122 pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE:                              = +10,524 pips\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/PS-NET-PROFITABILITY-OCT2017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10335\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/PS-NET-PROFITABILITY-OCT2017-968x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"968\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs on my website  <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\nAlternatively, if you prefer to watch a video recording about the PREMIUM SERVICE, click the link below. You will be directed to a 40-minute webinar presentation entitled “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE”.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS ONLY:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4.1: TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.2: SENTIMENT CHART,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.3: EXISTING CORE TRADES (PLANS &amp; STRATEGIES):</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.4: CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.5: FX BROKER NEWS with their MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FINISHING LINE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5.1: WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you have read in this blog and would like the chance to win a FREE SUBSCRIPTION valued at CAD$150.00, all you need to do is subscribe to my FREE NEWSLETTER (this blog), by adding your email address on my welcome page just below my cube logo at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\n<u>5.2: PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTIONS:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you’ve read in this blog and should you want to go a stage further and subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE, this can be done on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the Tab SUBSCRIBE HERE.\r\n\r\nSubscribing to the PREMIUM SERVICE is not just about receiving a larger “DRIVE THRU” blog packed with more trading supporting information, my thoughts and ideas. There is much more to a subscription than those things. Check it all out under the tab HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nAlternatively, if you prefer to watch a video recording about the PREMIUM SERVICE, click the link below. You will be directed to a 40-minute webinar presentation entitled “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE”.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n<u>5.3: CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #258 FREE NEWSLETTER\r\n5th November 2017','CARNEY SPITS FIRE AT CABLE BULLS','','inherit','closed','closed','','10365-revision-v1','','','2018-02-15 07:09:47','2018-02-15 12:09:47','',10365,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/10365-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(10970,1,'2018-02-15 07:11:00','2018-02-15 12:11:00','<strong>\r\n</strong><strong>\r\n1. INTRODUCTION:</strong>\r\n\r\nI cannot believe that we are into August. This blog is the last one for a few weeks, I return with the “DRIVE THRU” blog on September 3rd, 2017.\r\n\r\nPREMIUM SERVICE subscribers please note that trading will continue through the “DRIVE THRU” break. I do have one or two key domestic action items to fulfil during the break and I will alert you when these are in play.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nThe BOE “Super Thursday” event is now behind us and despite advising the markets that tightening is on the way, it was obvious due to the reaction in cable falling from around 1.3260 to about 1.3110 in the hour or so after the news was released and Mark Carney’s subsequent press conference, that the markets had priced in a more hawkish BOE. I will cover this event a in little more detail later.\r\n\r\nLooking at money $$$...\r\n\r\nI covered lots of trades ahead of last Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls and added a positive +691 pips for the first few days of the month. It’s a great start and I am very quickly pulling back my pips shortfall from earlier in the year due to my house move followed almost immediately by a 4-week vacation. There is still some way to go to my 10,000-pip annual objective but I am now almost back to where my pips total should be for this time of the year.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> LAST WEEK – MY TAKE ON SOME KEY EVENTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIn no particular order, here is what floated my boat last week.\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>NZD: Jobs Data.The Kiwi has been struggling since the data was released mid-week. Job growth in New Zealand is flat-lining. In Q2 2017, employment fell by 0.2% It was up 1.2% the previous quarter and it was forecasted to be positive this quarter by 0.7%.It was the first contraction in employment since Q3 2015. The participation rate also slid 0.6%.Having only recently visited New Zealand both North and South Islands, the place was buzzing and the dynamics appeared very positive. However, beneath this outer crust and dynamism the wages environment is subdued. In this instance, New Zealand is no different to other developed countries, despite unemployment levels being at historic low levels, wages are just NOT picking up.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li>AUD: RBA Rate Statement.Dr. Philip Lowe (RBA Governor) kept rates unchanged and kept the commentary neutral. He did however elude to the fact that should the current AUD strength continue, it is likely to weigh on the outlook for output and employment. An appreciating exchange rate would result in a slower pick-up of economic activity and inflation than currently forecasted.Do I read… AUD strength = a growth slowdown?From a currency perspective; I do think that the RBA would prefer a weaker currency (who wouldn’t). With the AUD/USD hitting an 0.8065, the orders for Prozac at the RBA would have increased. A break below 0.7840 (recent breakout level) would ease matters a great deal. Obviously, an AUD/USD exchange rate hovering between 0.7000 and 0.7500 would be preferred by the RBA.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li>GBP: BOE and Carney Press Conference.Interest Rate on Hold\r\nMPC 6-2 vote\r\nGrowth forecasts revised lower.\r\nInflation to peak c.3% in October.\r\nInterest Rates may need TO RISE FASTER than markets imply.\r\nUncertainty about BREXIT will weigh on growth.\r\nWages growth market down from 3.5% to 3%.They were the key things that I noted from the Statement and Press Conference.In addition, what made me giggle a bit was Carney’s multiple references to households and businesses taking the lead in reactions to BREXIT uncertainties. He noted that both households and business were taking BREXIT in their stride and that they were both expecting a smooth transition.\r\n\r\nFFS… my arse.\r\n\r\nHouseholds are more in debt than ever. Wages are not keeping growth in line with inflation. There is great uncertainty.\r\n\r\nBusinesses are using BREXIT as an excuse to limit wage rises on the back of “be grateful you have a job all things considered”.\r\n\r\nIs Threadneedle Street in a time warp?\r\n\r\nThese guys beggar belief. Carney stated that the BOE has spoken to ‘real” people about policies. Who are these people, the Chaps in the local pub in the city around the corner from the BOE?\r\n\r\nThe GBP however was whacked on the BOE statement and the following Press Conference and again on the NFP data, moving lower by almost 250 pips from its pre “Super Thursday” highs.</li>\r\n 	<li>CAD: Jobs Data.It was a small miss on the Canadian data, which, I suppose given how, of late Canadian data has nearly always been a beat was a little surprising. Personally, I welcomed this miss, as it has allowed the USD/CAD to rally (CAD to weaken). I have been waiting very patiently for an entry level short (This entry was posted to PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers POS393). I feel that this level should be achieved early this week.The Trade Balance number at (-3.6 CAD$ Billion versus -1.3 CAD$ billion expected) was a little worrying… but one month does not make up a trend.I am firmly in the camp that the CAD has at least another leg lower and a big one at that.</li>\r\n 	<li>USD: Non-Farm Payrolls data.I suppose my position on the reaction to the data would be “The market was just too heavily positioned the wrong way… far too much USD weakness, and by the looks of things too many USD shorts.The data at 209k new jobs versus 181k predicted once again showed up the difference between ADP and NFP. ADP simply cannot be trusted as an indicator or a barometer when it comes to looking at forecasting NFP. Then again, only a fecking loony would forecast NFP, it\'s a bloody lottery when all said and done…but hang on…maybe it’s not a lottery. At least with a lottery you have a chance!Back on track…\r\n\r\nBlow out numbers. After the analysts and experts crawled out from beneath their desks and realised this the USD started to strengthen in style (Over 100 points higher).\r\n\r\nWell over, +100 pip moves with EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY.\r\n\r\nThe usual suspects crawled out from under rocks to claim that the FED’s rate rise in December is possibility back on. FFS, HMOG, FGS, and JM&amp;J… we are in the middle of summer. Given the fact we have a clown in the White House, I would not be giving forward guidance on a damn thing more than a few hours ahead never mind a few months. I suppose these flutes are not in any way accountable for their predictions and they mostly have no skin in the game, so who cares what they say. In my opinion, this is one reason why CNBC ratings are falling faster than the cable at the moment.\r\n\r\nThe only person to listen to about FED activity in my opinion is Janet Yellen. Ignore the noise.</li>\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>3.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/ECON-DATA-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9820\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/ECON-DATA-06082017-1024x888.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"888\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3.2: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:</u>\r\n\r\nEconomic data releases this week are a bit thin on the ground.\r\n\r\nHowever, here are my picks of the upcoming week.\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>NZD: Those awfully nice chaps at the RBNZ led by Governor Graeme “the dealer” Wheeler has my top pick of the week this week.As I type this, the memorandum will already be circulating at the RBNZ deciding on the choice of wine for this week’s Press Conference and whether to go for cheese or pate. All the local corporate hospitality companies have been moved from orange to red alert to ensure sufficient stemware is on hand. No swigging from the bottles at the RBNZ.On a more serious note...The jobs data last week was a surprising miss. The Kiwi dollar back up at NZD/USD 0.7500 must have had Wheeler pissing conkers. Many traders / analysts / experts? had the NZD/USD trading at 0.7800 testing the May 2015 levels.\r\n\r\nNobody expects a rate move from the current 1.75%. It’s all about the commentary. Will Wheeler remain neutral or will he jawbone and go dovish trying to send the NZD/USD back towards 0.7000?\r\n\r\nA couple of weeks ago just prior to the latest drop in the USD, the NZD was showing signs of life to move sharply higher. A spokesperson from the RBNZ said basically “so what” 75%-80% of what the NZD/USD does exchange rate wise is out of the RBNZ control.\r\n\r\nOK… let’s roll out the same flute with the NZD/USD at 0.8000. Would the response be different? As sure as eggs are eggs it would be. There would be jawboning. As soon as dairy exports are threatened the RBNZ will act and like a good central bank they want stability. I would not rule out jawboning at this meeting just to keep the markets in check.\r\n\r\nUnfortunately, Wheelers rate statement and his jawboning never seem to go in tandem. It’s like he speaks with this right hand and writes with his left and neither hand knows what the other hand has done or is doing.\r\n\r\nIt all adds together to give us a news event to follow with interest. The Rate statement is released at 5PM EST and the Press Conference takes place at 6PM EST this Wednesday.</li>\r\n 	<li>USD: PPi and CPi data is released this week. Given that the FED is off its normalization route at the moment (even with the better than expected NFP data). These news items may not have the usual effect on markets other than for 30 minutes or so after the data is released. The FED change and the summer may play a combined role here. Nevertheless, we should be aware of the results.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>3.3: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/TCHART-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9821\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/TCHART-06082017-1024x845.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"845\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>EUR/USD:\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/EURUSD-D-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9830\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/EURUSD-D-06082017-1024x558.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"558\" /></a>\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/GBPUSD-D-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9831\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/GBPUSD-D-06082017-1024x558.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"558\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/AUDUSD-D-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9829\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/AUDUSD-D-06082017-1024x558.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"558\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/NZDUSD-D-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9832\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/NZDUSD-D-06082017-1024x558.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"558\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/USDCAD-D-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9833\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/USDCAD-D-06082017-1024x558.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"558\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/USDCHF-D-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9834\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/USDCHF-D-06082017-1024x558.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"558\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/USDJPY-D-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9835\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/USDJPY-D-06082017-1024x558.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"558\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>4.1: WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE?</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber based Forex support service offering my suggested trade set-ups and market commentary.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.1.1: YOUR BENEFITS OF SUBSCRIBING:</u>\r\n\r\nI am obviously biased in this section;\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, it is not just about market commentaries and suggested trade set ups. I want the PREMIUM SERVICE to be different from other providers in the Forex Market.\r\nHow have I created differentiation?\r\n\r\nI am a full-time Forex Trader of over 9 years.\r\nI trade my trades.\r\nI have SKIN in the game.\r\n<strong>BENEFIT FOR YOU – not all service providers are traders. </strong>\r\n\r\nAll my suggested trades are communicated via Twitter through a secure / closed account and confirmed with more back up data for my trades through email. I tell you when I am getting in and I advise you if I am getting out. If you want to copy me, I let you know what I am doing, when I am doing it.\r\n<strong>BENEFIT FOR YOU – Real time trading (24 x 5), regardless of time zone</strong>\r\n\r\nI am NOT an educator. I am a trader first and foremost, but I can help many traders become better at what they do.\r\nForex Trading is repetition and to a large extent it is a daily routine and many times it is quite boring.\r\nTechnical trading of patterns, previous support and resistance levels, Pivot points and Fibonacci levels, they all work. I feel that my successes are based these indicators being used alongside fundamentals. If pushed, I would say that I am a fundamental trader. However, fundamentals alone are not good enough in my opinion. They will eventually work but requires very, very deep pockets. It is the combination of using fundamentals and technical analysis combined that is a winning formula; plus obviously identifying high probability trade set ups.\r\n<strong>BENEFIT FOR YOU – I live for my trades and pass this belief to subscribers</strong><u>\r\n</u>\r\nI offer serious traders additional support such as “one-on-one” coaching: -\r\n\r\nIdentifying Chart Patterns\r\nWhat do candlestick patterns mean?\r\nWhat do single candlesticks signify?\r\nHow do I identify high probability trades?\r\nHow to Manage RISK?\r\nHow to POSITION SIZE effectively?\r\nEffective Account Management and\r\nHow to achieve Market longevity.\r\n<strong>BENEFIT FOR YOU – I want to help you achieve a Trading success</strong>\r\n\r\nI provide Market Commentary – but only when there is something important to communicate about the markets or something that is on my mind to say.\r\nI tell it how it is from my perspective. I do my best to straight talking in every situation.\r\n<strong>BENEFIT FOR YOU - I remove the noise remain informative and focused</strong><u>\r\n</u>\r\n\r\nPREMIUM SERVICE subscribers receive a “FULL VERSION” of this blog that includes sections on: -\r\nMy Market Trading Review (PREMIUM SERVICE progress)\r\nTechnical views plus my fundamental opinions and thoughts moved forward\r\nMarket Sentiment analysis\r\nCore Trades and Core Positions analysis\r\nA review of current LIVE and LIMIT ORDERS\r\n<strong>BENEFIT FOR YOU – It’s open, honest, straight to the point and concise</strong>\r\n\r\nAnnual (Platinum) Subscribers receive, (if they want it) a personal monthly review via SKYPE or FaceTime of the PREMIUM SERVICE trades, an overview of the markets and my FUNDAMENTAL views / ideas moving forward.<strong>\r\nBENEFIT FOR YOU – I welcome interaction it feeds success</strong>\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs.\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n<u>4.2: PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\nSo; if nothing else, I tell it how it is. I am currently about 70% of my target for this time of the year. I had a poor start to the year and I am now following a vacation and a protracted house move, in “Pip” recovery mode.\r\n\r\nIn 2014, 2015 and 2016 I beat my 10,000 pip per annum objective. There is nothing stopping me doing the same this year as my house move and vacation are both behind me. I will be trading pretty much full time from now on through to the end of 2017.\r\n\r\nIf you want to be a part of what I hope will be a storming end to 2017, login at my website and get subscribed. I mean business from here on in.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nMONTH TO DATE:  +691 net pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE:      +4,906 net pips\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n4.2.1: SUBSCRIBING NOW…  HAS BENEFITS:</u>\r\n\r\nEven though I am not producing a “DRIVE THRU” blog for the next three weeks, my subscription periods of 10, 20 or 40 weeks are based around the DRIVE THRU posts.\r\n\r\nTherefore subscribing now really means that your subscription does not start until 3rd September, three weeks’ time. However, between now and them, I am still trading therefore suggested set ups and twitter, email, in fact all communication is open.\r\n\r\nTherefore: -\r\n\r\nA 10-week CAD$500.00 subscription starts 3rd September and would complete on 12th November 2017.\r\n\r\nA 20-week CAD$800.00 subscription would start 3rd September and would complete on 10th February 2018.\r\n\r\nA 40-week CAD$1,250.00 Platinum subscription would start 3rd September and complete on 30th June 2018.\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>4.3: WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you would like to be in the monthly draw to win a “FREE 10-WEEK SUBSCRIPTION” to the PREMIUM SERVICE, valued at CAD$500.00, all you should do is subscribe to receive this FREE NEWSLETTER on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nThis can be done as follows: -\r\n\r\nOn my welcome page just below my cube logo is where you complete your subscription.\r\n\r\nBecause of my “time out” this month. No freebie subscription this month back in September, in fact the next “DRIVE THRU” blog.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>4.4: PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:</u><u>\r\n</u>(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.1: TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n<u>\r\n4.4.2: MARKET SENTIMENT:</u>\r\n\r\n4.4.3: CORE TRADES:\r\n<u>\r\n4.4.4: PREMIUM SERVICE – CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE SOAPBOX:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>\r\nWHAT’S NEXT AFTER THE RECENT BIG MOVES</strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nWith a title like that it sounds like I have an end of the world type of prediction to follow… you are safe!\r\n\r\nWe are now into the sleepy summer. There are some risks, most of them are geopolitical.\r\n\r\nI have in the main over recent weeks been looking forward predicting a new world… CENTRAL BANK DIVERGENCE, RE-STRUCTURE, RE-ALIGNMENT of the markets and I still believe we are in the throes of this happening despite the recent 72 hours or so in the Forex Market.\r\n\r\nLet’s recap what happened in the immediate past: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Mark Carney (BOE, Governor), finally came out and said what needed to be said to put the damn bulls back in their boxes for at least this year.</li>\r\n 	<li>We had a blowout NFP number.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThat’s nothing earth shattering. Does the above change my thoughts and views that I have had for the past month or so?\r\n\r\nAbsolutely not; I was bearish and shorting the cable long before “Super Thursday”.\r\n\r\nDid I predict a good NFP?\r\n\r\nI don\'t do predictions and I doubt even David Copperfield or Penn &amp; Teller could magic up an accurate NFP number.\r\n\r\nWe are in transition.\r\n\r\nFrom this Monday I am on 50% leave for the summer until the 1st September. So, what is next?\r\n\r\nOver the next few weeks the big Forex event could be the Jackson Hole Symposium. Initially Mario Draghi (ECB, President) was going to use this event as the place he would talk about the timetable of events within the ECB for a return to interest rate normalization.\r\n\r\nI am not so certain that he will do this. My thought process is basically due to the fact the markets are ready to leap on the back of the single currency and send it to outer space (in forex terms) about 1.2500-1.3000 if the mood takes them. Draghi would literally poop his pants if he thought the EUR/USD would be at 1.2500 in rapid order.\r\n\r\nWe have German elections this Autumn/Fall and whilst German savers would welcome normalization, I would say that EUROZONE exporters primarily based in Germany would be buying “Andrex” and the like, in Costco quantities on a daily basis, as the increase in liquid stools could potentially reach epidemic proportions. Sales of Imodium could go through the roof (This is not investment advice).\r\n\r\nGerman elections is one good reason why Mario Draghi may just provide some B.S. at Jackson Hole.\r\n\r\nMy fear is that “THE DONALD” will create the next big move. It will of course be largely “not surprising” but it will be unpredictable from a timing viewpoint, even though we know about the potential of something happening.\r\n\r\nRight now, given all the geopolitical events in play around the world the markets are complacent. All the U.S. markets are concerned about are 401K valuations and returns, stock valuations mean feck all; we are on the brink once again in my opinion… (RE-STRUCTURE and RE-ALIGNMENT).\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>What about China being declared a currency manipulator, now that they failed to intervene effectively with North Korea?</li>\r\n 	<li>What about China getting huge trade restrictions placed upon them by the U.S.?</li>\r\n 	<li>What about North Korea dropping an ICBN on Japan… by mistake or intentionally?</li>\r\n 	<li>What about North Korea taking aim on the continental United States?</li>\r\n 	<li>What about the Russian / U.S. diplomatic expulsion tit for tat getting out of control spilling over into troubles in the “Old Soviet Block?</li>\r\n 	<li>What happens if the Iran / U.S. nuclear deal blows up?</li>\r\n 	<li>TRUMP has sided with Saudi Arabia over the Qatar terrorism claims. What would happen if this dispute escalates and unsettles stability in the region and subsequently OIL production?</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nI have only highlighted US based geopolitical related issues, as usually these would affect all markets to varying degrees. The chances of something happening could be 50-50 from my perspective, but who knows. I have ignored all the investigations and enquiries that shadow the TRUMP administration, these can just flare up at any time without warning, a tweet could kick it off.\r\n\r\nSo; what am I saying?\r\n\r\nJust be on your toes if you are trading over the next three or four weeks. Many traders are away. Many traders simply do not trade the summer.\r\n\r\nMost risks are similar to what we have every summer…  geopolitical. There are more flare up zones than the ones I have listed above, but I do feel that those areas with a TRUMP involvement are more at risk.\r\n\r\nFrom a trading perspective as I have written earlier we are in the throes of a transition. There are entry “Gifts” as I call them on the horizon. Grab them; the EUR/USD in particular, but hold with wider stops than usual to allow for the very thin trading conditions with lower liquidity than usual.\r\n\r\nTake care, back on September 3rd.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #FREE NEWSLETTER\r\nDATE: 6th August 2017.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','WHAT’S NEXT AFTER THE RECENT BIG MOVES','','inherit','closed','closed','','9854-revision-v1','','','2018-02-15 07:11:00','2018-02-15 12:11:00','',9854,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/9854-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(10971,1,'2018-02-15 07:11:34','2018-02-15 12:11:34','<strong>\r\n</strong><strong>\r\n1. INTRODUCTION:</strong>\r\n\r\nI cannot believe that we are into August. This blog is the last one for a few weeks, I return with the “DRIVE THRU” blog on September 3rd, 2017.\r\n\r\nPREMIUM SERVICE subscribers please note that trading will continue through the “DRIVE THRU” break. I do have one or two key domestic action items to fulfil during the break and I will alert you when these are in play.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nThe BOE “Super Thursday” event is now behind us and despite advising the markets that tightening is on the way, it was obvious due to the reaction in cable falling from around 1.3260 to about 1.3110 in the hour or so after the news was released and Mark Carney’s subsequent press conference, that the markets had priced in a more hawkish BOE. I will cover this event a in little more detail later.\r\n\r\nLooking at money $$$...\r\n\r\nI covered lots of trades ahead of last Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls and added a positive +691 pips for the first few days of the month. It’s a great start and I am very quickly pulling back my pips shortfall from earlier in the year due to my house move followed almost immediately by a 4-week vacation. There is still some way to go to my 10,000-pip annual objective but I am now almost back to where my pips total should be for this time of the year.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> LAST WEEK – MY TAKE ON SOME KEY EVENTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIn no particular order, here is what floated my boat last week.\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>NZD: Jobs Data.The Kiwi has been struggling since the data was released mid-week. Job growth in New Zealand is flat-lining. In Q2 2017, employment fell by 0.2% It was up 1.2% the previous quarter and it was forecasted to be positive this quarter by 0.7%.It was the first contraction in employment since Q3 2015. The participation rate also slid 0.6%.Having only recently visited New Zealand both North and South Islands, the place was buzzing and the dynamics appeared very positive. However, beneath this outer crust and dynamism the wages environment is subdued. In this instance, New Zealand is no different to other developed countries, despite unemployment levels being at historic low levels, wages are just NOT picking up.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li>AUD: RBA Rate Statement.Dr. Philip Lowe (RBA Governor) kept rates unchanged and kept the commentary neutral. He did however elude to the fact that should the current AUD strength continue, it is likely to weigh on the outlook for output and employment. An appreciating exchange rate would result in a slower pick-up of economic activity and inflation than currently forecasted.Do I read… AUD strength = a growth slowdown?From a currency perspective; I do think that the RBA would prefer a weaker currency (who wouldn’t). With the AUD/USD hitting an 0.8065, the orders for Prozac at the RBA would have increased. A break below 0.7840 (recent breakout level) would ease matters a great deal. Obviously, an AUD/USD exchange rate hovering between 0.7000 and 0.7500 would be preferred by the RBA.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li>GBP: BOE and Carney Press Conference.Interest Rate on Hold\r\nMPC 6-2 vote\r\nGrowth forecasts revised lower.\r\nInflation to peak c.3% in October.\r\nInterest Rates may need TO RISE FASTER than markets imply.\r\nUncertainty about BREXIT will weigh on growth.\r\nWages growth market down from 3.5% to 3%.They were the key things that I noted from the Statement and Press Conference.In addition, what made me giggle a bit was Carney’s multiple references to households and businesses taking the lead in reactions to BREXIT uncertainties. He noted that both households and business were taking BREXIT in their stride and that they were both expecting a smooth transition.FFS… my arse.\r\n\r\nHouseholds are more in debt than ever. Wages are not keeping growth in line with inflation. There is great uncertainty.\r\n\r\nBusinesses are using BREXIT as an excuse to limit wage rises on the back of “be grateful you have a job all things considered”.\r\n\r\nIs Threadneedle Street in a time warp?\r\n\r\nThese guys beggar belief. Carney stated that the BOE has spoken to ‘real” people about policies. Who are these people, the Chaps in the local pub in the city around the corner from the BOE?\r\n\r\nThe GBP however was whacked on the BOE statement and the following Press Conference and again on the NFP data, moving lower by almost 250 pips from its pre “Super Thursday” highs.</li>\r\n 	<li>CAD: Jobs Data.It was a small miss on the Canadian data, which, I suppose given how, of late Canadian data has nearly always been a beat was a little surprising. Personally, I welcomed this miss, as it has allowed the USD/CAD to rally (CAD to weaken). I have been waiting very patiently for an entry level short (This entry was posted to PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers POS393). I feel that this level should be achieved early this week.The Trade Balance number at (-3.6 CAD$ Billion versus -1.3 CAD$ billion expected) was a little worrying… but one month does not make up a trend.I am firmly in the camp that the CAD has at least another leg lower and a big one at that.</li>\r\n 	<li>USD: Non-Farm Payrolls data.I suppose my position on the reaction to the data would be “The market was just too heavily positioned the wrong way… far too much USD weakness, and by the looks of things too many USD shorts.The data at 209k new jobs versus 181k predicted once again showed up the difference between ADP and NFP. ADP simply cannot be trusted as an indicator or a barometer when it comes to looking at forecasting NFP. Then again, only a fecking loony would forecast NFP, it\'s a bloody lottery when all said and done…but hang on…maybe it’s not a lottery. At least with a lottery you have a chance!Back on track…Blow out numbers. After the analysts and experts crawled out from beneath their desks and realised this the USD started to strengthen in style (Over 100 points higher).\r\n\r\nWell over, +100 pip moves with EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY.\r\n\r\nThe usual suspects crawled out from under rocks to claim that the FED’s rate rise in December is possibility back on. FFS, HMOG, FGS, and JM&amp;J… we are in the middle of summer. Given the fact we have a clown in the White House, I would not be giving forward guidance on a damn thing more than a few hours ahead never mind a few months. I suppose these flutes are not in any way accountable for their predictions and they mostly have no skin in the game, so who cares what they say. In my opinion, this is one reason why CNBC ratings are falling faster than the cable at the moment.\r\n\r\nThe only person to listen to about FED activity in my opinion is Janet Yellen. Ignore the noise.</li>\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>3.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/ECON-DATA-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9820\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/ECON-DATA-06082017-1024x888.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"888\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3.2: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:</u>\r\n\r\nEconomic data releases this week are a bit thin on the ground.\r\n\r\nHowever, here are my picks of the upcoming week.\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>NZD: Those awfully nice chaps at the RBNZ led by Governor Graeme “the dealer” Wheeler has my top pick of the week this week.As I type this, the memorandum will already be circulating at the RBNZ deciding on the choice of wine for this week’s Press Conference and whether to go for cheese or pate. All the local corporate hospitality companies have been moved from orange to red alert to ensure sufficient stemware is on hand. No swigging from the bottles at the RBNZ.On a more serious note...The jobs data last week was a surprising miss. The Kiwi dollar back up at NZD/USD 0.7500 must have had Wheeler pissing conkers. Many traders / analysts / experts? had the NZD/USD trading at 0.7800 testing the May 2015 levels.Nobody expects a rate move from the current 1.75%. It’s all about the commentary. Will Wheeler remain neutral or will he jawbone and go dovish trying to send the NZD/USD back towards 0.7000?\r\n\r\nA couple of weeks ago just prior to the latest drop in the USD, the NZD was showing signs of life to move sharply higher. A spokesperson from the RBNZ said basically “so what” 75%-80% of what the NZD/USD does exchange rate wise is out of the RBNZ control.\r\n\r\nOK… let’s roll out the same flute with the NZD/USD at 0.8000. Would the response be different? As sure as eggs are eggs it would be. There would be jawboning. As soon as dairy exports are threatened the RBNZ will act and like a good central bank they want stability. I would not rule out jawboning at this meeting just to keep the markets in check.\r\n\r\nUnfortunately, Wheelers rate statement and his jawboning never seem to go in tandem. It’s like he speaks with this right hand and writes with his left and neither hand knows what the other hand has done or is doing.\r\n\r\nIt all adds together to give us a news event to follow with interest. The Rate statement is released at 5PM EST and the Press Conference takes place at 6PM EST this Wednesday.</li>\r\n 	<li>USD: PPi and CPi data is released this week. Given that the FED is off its normalization route at the moment (even with the better than expected NFP data). These news items may not have the usual effect on markets other than for 30 minutes or so after the data is released. The FED change and the summer may play a combined role here. Nevertheless, we should be aware of the results.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>3.3: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/TCHART-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9821\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/TCHART-06082017-1024x845.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"845\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>EUR/USD:\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/EURUSD-D-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9830\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/EURUSD-D-06082017-1024x558.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"558\" /></a>\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/GBPUSD-D-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9831\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/GBPUSD-D-06082017-1024x558.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"558\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/AUDUSD-D-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9829\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/AUDUSD-D-06082017-1024x558.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"558\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/NZDUSD-D-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9832\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/NZDUSD-D-06082017-1024x558.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"558\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/USDCAD-D-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9833\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/USDCAD-D-06082017-1024x558.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"558\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/USDCHF-D-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9834\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/USDCHF-D-06082017-1024x558.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"558\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/USDJPY-D-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9835\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/USDJPY-D-06082017-1024x558.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"558\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>4.1: WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE?</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber based Forex support service offering my suggested trade set-ups and market commentary.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.1.1: YOUR BENEFITS OF SUBSCRIBING:</u>\r\n\r\nI am obviously biased in this section;\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, it is not just about market commentaries and suggested trade set ups. I want the PREMIUM SERVICE to be different from other providers in the Forex Market.\r\nHow have I created differentiation?\r\n\r\nI am a full-time Forex Trader of over 9 years.\r\nI trade my trades.\r\nI have SKIN in the game.\r\n<strong>BENEFIT FOR YOU – not all service providers are traders. </strong>\r\n\r\nAll my suggested trades are communicated via Twitter through a secure / closed account and confirmed with more back up data for my trades through email. I tell you when I am getting in and I advise you if I am getting out. If you want to copy me, I let you know what I am doing, when I am doing it.\r\n<strong>BENEFIT FOR YOU – Real time trading (24 x 5), regardless of time zone</strong>\r\n\r\nI am NOT an educator. I am a trader first and foremost, but I can help many traders become better at what they do.\r\nForex Trading is repetition and to a large extent it is a daily routine and many times it is quite boring.\r\nTechnical trading of patterns, previous support and resistance levels, Pivot points and Fibonacci levels, they all work. I feel that my successes are based these indicators being used alongside fundamentals. If pushed, I would say that I am a fundamental trader. However, fundamentals alone are not good enough in my opinion. They will eventually work but requires very, very deep pockets. It is the combination of using fundamentals and technical analysis combined that is a winning formula; plus obviously identifying high probability trade set ups.\r\n<strong>BENEFIT FOR YOU – I live for my trades and pass this belief to subscribers</strong><u>\r\n</u>\r\nI offer serious traders additional support such as “one-on-one” coaching: -\r\n\r\nIdentifying Chart Patterns\r\nWhat do candlestick patterns mean?\r\nWhat do single candlesticks signify?\r\nHow do I identify high probability trades?\r\nHow to Manage RISK?\r\nHow to POSITION SIZE effectively?\r\nEffective Account Management and\r\nHow to achieve Market longevity.\r\n<strong>BENEFIT FOR YOU – I want to help you achieve a Trading success</strong>\r\n\r\nI provide Market Commentary – but only when there is something important to communicate about the markets or something that is on my mind to say.\r\nI tell it how it is from my perspective. I do my best to straight talking in every situation.\r\n<strong>BENEFIT FOR YOU - I remove the noise remain informative and focused</strong><u>\r\n</u>\r\n\r\nPREMIUM SERVICE subscribers receive a “FULL VERSION” of this blog that includes sections on: -\r\nMy Market Trading Review (PREMIUM SERVICE progress)\r\nTechnical views plus my fundamental opinions and thoughts moved forward\r\nMarket Sentiment analysis\r\nCore Trades and Core Positions analysis\r\nA review of current LIVE and LIMIT ORDERS\r\n<strong>BENEFIT FOR YOU – It’s open, honest, straight to the point and concise</strong>\r\n\r\nAnnual (Platinum) Subscribers receive, (if they want it) a personal monthly review via SKYPE or FaceTime of the PREMIUM SERVICE trades, an overview of the markets and my FUNDAMENTAL views / ideas moving forward.<strong>\r\nBENEFIT FOR YOU – I welcome interaction it feeds success</strong>\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs.\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n<u>4.2: PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\nSo; if nothing else, I tell it how it is. I am currently about 70% of my target for this time of the year. I had a poor start to the year and I am now following a vacation and a protracted house move, in “Pip” recovery mode.\r\n\r\nIn 2014, 2015 and 2016 I beat my 10,000 pip per annum objective. There is nothing stopping me doing the same this year as my house move and vacation are both behind me. I will be trading pretty much full time from now on through to the end of 2017.\r\n\r\nIf you want to be a part of what I hope will be a storming end to 2017, login at my website and get subscribed. I mean business from here on in.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nMONTH TO DATE:  +691 net pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE:      +4,906 net pips\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n4.2.1: SUBSCRIBING NOW…  HAS BENEFITS:</u>\r\n\r\nEven though I am not producing a “DRIVE THRU” blog for the next three weeks, my subscription periods of 10, 20 or 40 weeks are based around the DRIVE THRU posts.\r\n\r\nTherefore subscribing now really means that your subscription does not start until 3rd September, three weeks’ time. However, between now and them, I am still trading therefore suggested set ups and twitter, email, in fact all communication is open.\r\n\r\nTherefore: -\r\n\r\nA 10-week CAD$500.00 subscription starts 3rd September and would complete on 12th November 2017.\r\n\r\nA 20-week CAD$800.00 subscription would start 3rd September and would complete on 10th February 2018.\r\n\r\nA 40-week CAD$1,250.00 Platinum subscription would start 3rd September and complete on 30th June 2018.\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>4.3: WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you would like to be in the monthly draw to win a “FREE 10-WEEK SUBSCRIPTION” to the PREMIUM SERVICE, valued at CAD$500.00, all you should do is subscribe to receive this FREE NEWSLETTER on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nThis can be done as follows: -\r\n\r\nOn my welcome page just below my cube logo is where you complete your subscription.\r\n\r\nBecause of my “time out” this month. No freebie subscription this month back in September, in fact the next “DRIVE THRU” blog.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>4.4: PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:</u><u>\r\n</u>(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.1: TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n<u>\r\n4.4.2: MARKET SENTIMENT:</u>\r\n\r\n4.4.3: CORE TRADES:\r\n<u>\r\n4.4.4: PREMIUM SERVICE – CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE SOAPBOX:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>\r\nWHAT’S NEXT AFTER THE RECENT BIG MOVES</strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nWith a title like that it sounds like I have an end of the world type of prediction to follow… you are safe!\r\n\r\nWe are now into the sleepy summer. There are some risks, most of them are geopolitical.\r\n\r\nI have in the main over recent weeks been looking forward predicting a new world… CENTRAL BANK DIVERGENCE, RE-STRUCTURE, RE-ALIGNMENT of the markets and I still believe we are in the throes of this happening despite the recent 72 hours or so in the Forex Market.\r\n\r\nLet’s recap what happened in the immediate past: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Mark Carney (BOE, Governor), finally came out and said what needed to be said to put the damn bulls back in their boxes for at least this year.</li>\r\n 	<li>We had a blowout NFP number.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThat’s nothing earth shattering. Does the above change my thoughts and views that I have had for the past month or so?\r\n\r\nAbsolutely not; I was bearish and shorting the cable long before “Super Thursday”.\r\n\r\nDid I predict a good NFP?\r\n\r\nI don\'t do predictions and I doubt even David Copperfield or Penn &amp; Teller could magic up an accurate NFP number.\r\n\r\nWe are in transition.\r\n\r\nFrom this Monday I am on 50% leave for the summer until the 1st September. So, what is next?\r\n\r\nOver the next few weeks the big Forex event could be the Jackson Hole Symposium. Initially Mario Draghi (ECB, President) was going to use this event as the place he would talk about the timetable of events within the ECB for a return to interest rate normalization.\r\n\r\nI am not so certain that he will do this. My thought process is basically due to the fact the markets are ready to leap on the back of the single currency and send it to outer space (in forex terms) about 1.2500-1.3000 if the mood takes them. Draghi would literally poop his pants if he thought the EUR/USD would be at 1.2500 in rapid order.\r\n\r\nWe have German elections this Autumn/Fall and whilst German savers would welcome normalization, I would say that EUROZONE exporters primarily based in Germany would be buying “Andrex” and the like, in Costco quantities on a daily basis, as the increase in liquid stools could potentially reach epidemic proportions. Sales of Imodium could go through the roof (This is not investment advice).\r\n\r\nGerman elections is one good reason why Mario Draghi may just provide some B.S. at Jackson Hole.\r\n\r\nMy fear is that “THE DONALD” will create the next big move. It will of course be largely “not surprising” but it will be unpredictable from a timing viewpoint, even though we know about the potential of something happening.\r\n\r\nRight now, given all the geopolitical events in play around the world the markets are complacent. All the U.S. markets are concerned about are 401K valuations and returns, stock valuations mean feck all; we are on the brink once again in my opinion… (RE-STRUCTURE and RE-ALIGNMENT).\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>What about China being declared a currency manipulator, now that they failed to intervene effectively with North Korea?</li>\r\n 	<li>What about China getting huge trade restrictions placed upon them by the U.S.?</li>\r\n 	<li>What about North Korea dropping an ICBN on Japan… by mistake or intentionally?</li>\r\n 	<li>What about North Korea taking aim on the continental United States?</li>\r\n 	<li>What about the Russian / U.S. diplomatic expulsion tit for tat getting out of control spilling over into troubles in the “Old Soviet Block?</li>\r\n 	<li>What happens if the Iran / U.S. nuclear deal blows up?</li>\r\n 	<li>TRUMP has sided with Saudi Arabia over the Qatar terrorism claims. What would happen if this dispute escalates and unsettles stability in the region and subsequently OIL production?</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nI have only highlighted US based geopolitical related issues, as usually these would affect all markets to varying degrees. The chances of something happening could be 50-50 from my perspective, but who knows. I have ignored all the investigations and enquiries that shadow the TRUMP administration, these can just flare up at any time without warning, a tweet could kick it off.\r\n\r\nSo; what am I saying?\r\n\r\nJust be on your toes if you are trading over the next three or four weeks. Many traders are away. Many traders simply do not trade the summer.\r\n\r\nMost risks are similar to what we have every summer…  geopolitical. There are more flare up zones than the ones I have listed above, but I do feel that those areas with a TRUMP involvement are more at risk.\r\n\r\nFrom a trading perspective as I have written earlier we are in the throes of a transition. There are entry “Gifts” as I call them on the horizon. Grab them; the EUR/USD in particular, but hold with wider stops than usual to allow for the very thin trading conditions with lower liquidity than usual.\r\n\r\nTake care, back on September 3rd.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #FREE NEWSLETTER\r\nDATE: 6th August 2017.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','WHAT’S NEXT AFTER THE RECENT BIG MOVES','','inherit','closed','closed','','9854-revision-v1','','','2018-02-15 07:11:34','2018-02-15 12:11:34','',9854,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/9854-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(11000,1,'2018-02-17 09:38:54','2018-02-17 14:38:54','&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>THE FIRST SHOT:</strong><strong> </strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nJust like last week, there are many options on subjects to write about. We are trading in strange times.\r\n\r\nOne-night last week I went back through PDF files that I have stored under the EDUCATION (Trading Essentials) TAB that is inside the PREMIUM SERVICE subscriber section of my website. There are about 60 PDF files in that area, some of them are maybe 4 years old. I was checking for relevance, which is a six-month diary alert.\r\n\r\nNot only are they relevant, but they are as useful today as they were when I first wrote them. The intention was to build up an EDUCATION area for newbie traders and those who had less than 2-3 years’ experience. Reading through some them once again, it prompted me to send out the following 5-part tweet to PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers last Wednesday, just prior to the US close (Wednesday was the day of the massive USD reversal after the CPi data).\r\n\r\nTo read the tweet start from the bottom up!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe purpose of placing these tweets in the blog is that after 10 years of trading, I was unsure what to do next. What I had seen during that day, took me by complete surprise and I needed to re-set. It is NOT a crime or weakness to say that you are uncertain of what to do next.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nWe are trading in strange times. Correlations are off. Trying not to be too cynical, but to me at times it seems like algorithms, computer bots and machine-driven theories are driving the markets one way then the other. If this is the case they are NOT interested in any correlations, inter-market or not! Fundamentals count, Technicals are very often ignored and we are trading in a dangerous news driven market. Sometimes, regardless of your experience in front of screens, your best trades are the ones you do NOT take.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nIf you are relatively new to Forex Trading or trading with limited funds, now, may be a good time to take a break for a while until some sense of normality returns.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nStocks are rising, in spite of a fast approaching 3% 10-year treasury yield, inflation entering the U.S. economy placing the FED on a well-advertised increasing interest rate cycle, commodity prices are elevated and the JPY strengthening. Something has got to give but until it does we are on for a crazy ride.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMany traders lost huge amounts from their broker accounts over the past two weeks. You can talk about RISK MANAGEMENT, POSITION SIZING, TRADING PSYCHOLOGY and “HEAD” MANAGEMENT as reasons. The bottom line is we all stretch the limits from time to time, however, as a Forex Trader, trading longevity will never be achieved unless we trade a TRADE PLAN.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nI want to repeat a section that was in last week’s blog.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<em>I have blogged about this so many times over the past 5 years or so and you can obviously draw your own conclusions, but, I am now more than ever of the belief after 10 years of trading that in FOREX: -</em>\r\n\r\n<em> </em>\r\n\r\n<em>It is all about you</em>\r\n\r\n<em>You have your machines</em>\r\n\r\n<em>You have your charts</em>\r\n\r\n<em>You have your analysis</em>\r\n\r\n<em>It is you versus the world</em>\r\n\r\n<em>It is all down to you</em>\r\n\r\n<em>You will rise or fall on your decisions</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Whether you are a Fundamental or Technical trader</em>\r\n\r\n<em> </em>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><em>The media is biased. It only wants to promote “GOOD NEWS” because “BAD NEWS” does not get advertising revenue.\r\n\r\n</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>Banking analysts SELL their latest book. They do this whether it’s the right thing to do or not.\r\n\r\n</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>Twitter feeds and other Social media can be a very dangerous place to ascertain quality data.</em></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nFinally, in this section…\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nFrom last week’s blog I must follow up on the sell -off in the DOW / S&amp;P / Nasdaq, when I called the sell-off THE IMACULATE CORRECTION. I have found a company that shorted and made money. I have only heard of one, others must be known by now but: -\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nIBEX INVESTORS based in Denver, Colorado.\r\n\r\nAri Rubin, IBEX Investors Director announced on BLOOMBERG TV 17.02.2018.\r\n\r\nHUDGE FUND made 8,600% profit from the move with the “VIX SURGE”.\r\n\r\nObviously, millions of retail investors had huge drawdowns in their investment balances. Many went to cash and never re-entered.  I would say that there are still retail investors picking up trading statements and sobbing. These markets are brutal at the moment.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe ABF….\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nTrading in this market has been challenging from the get go in 2018.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nIt takes an understanding of what currency pairs to trade and when. Timing is everything. As we head into a period when the FED looks likely to be raising rates, the day to day challenges of trading FX will only intensify.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nI am doing nothing different in 2018 than I was doing in 2014. My daily routine is the same. So, what’s made the start of trading in 2018 so explosive over recent years.\r\n\r\nI still listen to lots of people’s opinions each day about the FX market. I read as many bank reports and analysts thoughts each day and to be honest some of them I use as ideas to trade against!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nWhat I am trying to say is that for 10 years now, I watch, listen and read the market every day. I hate to think how many thousands of hours I have spent in front of my screens observing how prices move.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAll this time involved in research and observing price movements must count for something. This year, is the best start for the PREMIUM SERVICE since it started in 2014.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGet on board and join from as little as CAD$150.00 per month, conversions are roughly as follows: -\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP £90 per month\r\nEUR €100 per month\r\n\r\nUSD $120 per month\r\n\r\nJPY 12,700 per month\r\n\r\nAUD $150 per month\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThis represents great value.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nYou can subscribe for periods as well. Go to my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> for more details under the TAB – “SUBSCRIBE HERE”.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE performance so far in 2018 is as follows: -\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nFebruary 2018 so far:          +1,609 pips\r\n\r\nYear to date 2018:               +3,087 pips\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> MARKET OVERVIEW – MY THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>I THINK OIL IS ABOUT TO HEAD MUCH LOWER ONCE AGAIN</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nWhen I first started trading FX, I used to listen to a short 5-minute segment in a LIVE TV webinar presentation by a commodities trader. Not a catchphrase, but he would often say “IT’S ALL ABOUT COMMODITIES”. So, taken with this phrase, I used it to title a blog a few years ago. Not important, but it stuck in my mind because I wrote it while in a Caesar’s Palace hotel bedroom in Vegas.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nI believe that it will be OIL that will, for the want of a better phrase “Sort these markets out”.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nEvery morning as I set myself up for the day, screens go on and with coffee in hand I look through my charts for my key indicators one by one GOLD, COPPER, OIL, 10-YEAR U.S. BONDS, DXY, USD/CAD, AUD/USD and USD/SEK.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nI think to myself almost every day: -\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>OIL is a dying commodity.</li>\r\n 	<li>OPEC as a cartel is not what it was. It no longer has the power it once had. OPEC controls 40% of the production and holds about 60% of the distribution</li>\r\n 	<li>Data from OPEC cannot be trusted, and OPEC members are very loosely united.</li>\r\n 	<li>The OIL market is basically corrupt; it is heavily manipulated by several large players.\r\n\r\nSo</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>In the name of sanity why is WTi priced above $60 per barrel?</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>I still laugh at how such a FREE TRADE world gives such an open cartel so much media time.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nI know it’s crazy, but I just cannot wrap my head around the way OIL prices and OPEC carry so much weight. The fact is that they do, and, it is what it is…. suck it up!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nHere are my thoughts moving forward…\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe U.S. is NOT an OPEC member and I seriously doubt it ever will be. The U.S. is now the biggest producer of OIL in the world on the basis that Saudi Arabia is subject to OPEC production quotas, and Russia, also NOT in OPEC, but, has aligned with OPEC to limit production output.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe IEA (International Energy Agency) and the US EIA (Energy Information Administration) have both ramped up numbers based on US shale production for 2018. In fact, most noticeably, the EIA stated recently that US shale production would increase by 1.3 million barrels per day by March 2018 over the March 2017 levels.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nI have no doubts in my continuing beliefs that OPEC is a fragile coalition. The likes of Nigeria, Iran, Iraq, Angola and Libya are known to be in need of greater production to meet internal economic needs and requirements. The production cut agreement is, in my opinion, hanging by the thread. Many countries who signed up for the production cuts are NOT in OPEC and have no loyalty to the cause other than price fixing benefits and greed. I also believe these non OPEC affiliates did not believe that they were signing up on a 2-3 year deal!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nLooking at prices…\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n(INSERT OIL PRICE CHARTS)\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nLooking at the charts above, technically below $58.00 and OIL looks like a move lower towards the low $50’s would be in view once again. OIL is always about supply and demand. It is the classic economic supply and demand theory discussed in every classroom.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nIt is noted though that the move higher is impressive and the recent move lower may in fact just be technical.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nHowever…\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe weaker USD has kept OIL prices inflated. The price of Oil has skyrocketed 40% since the middle of 2017, but the greed of OPEC opened the door for the US shale producers to step back in with improved methods in extracting OIL from shale for less cost than before. It has been well documented this time around that every dollar above $40-$45 and US shale producers are making money.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMoving forward; what if…\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>The USD bounces off lows and spikes higher.</li>\r\n 	<li>The price of OIL falls back to say the region of $53-$55 per barrel.</li>\r\n 	<li>The supply and demand curves show that supply outweighs demand based on flows being increased by the US.</li>\r\n 	<li>With US interest rate hikes due this year, this alone will have an effect on Oil pricing vis-à-vis it’s USD relationship.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nI know that the above are “what if’s”, but do I think that OPEC would remain united if one or two cracks appeared? Not in a month of Sunday’s, there would be more cracks on view than one would see on a fully operational building site.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, the fundamentals with higher OIL prices have too many cracks that have huge potential to appear and OPEC could not, faced with these issues, remain united.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nIf you do NOT like the “what if’s”… what about the bigger picture…\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>US production keeps rising</li>\r\n 	<li>Rig counts continue to increase which in turn increases production output and supply. Up by 7 last week. 4 weeks in a row of increases. Over 30% more than this time last year.</li>\r\n 	<li>Inventories just keep on building (Supply and Demand)</li>\r\n 	<li>This creates price pressure</li>\r\n 	<li>This places heat on the OPEC members to stay in line</li>\r\n 	<li>The weaker participants move away from the herd</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nIf the OPEC agreement breaks and a free for all ensues, the OIL price would plummet.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nWill this happen pre-US interest rate increases? I doubt it, but it could.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe OPEC production limit agreement consists of such a bizarre collection of countries united by greed to artificially keep OIL prices inflated, when cracks appear they will become gaping cracks very quickly as greed rules this commodity.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nI believe that when the OIL price moves lower it will be the catalyst that beings back inter-market correlations once again. OIL is integral to correlations in several markets; FX, Commodities, Futures and Stocks.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nIs the price of OIL about to collapse?\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nWe are not far away from this in my opinion and with it we should have another bout of serious volatility as we find new equilibriums. Below $50.00, we will see another race to the bottom.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nIt is highly inflated at the moment but technical reasons as well as greed will spiral the price lower.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nFrom an FX perspective this gives us long USD/CAD, USD/NOK and USD/MXN opportunities.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThese are trades that offer huge retracement potentials in 2018. Keep this on your RADAR.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong>USD SUPPORT and RESISTANCE with my BIAS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n(INSERT MY BIAS CHART)\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong>THE PREMIUM SERVICE TRADING SUMMARY:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\n(Incorporating the last 5 PREMIUM SERVICE TRADES)\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n(INSERT EXCEL SPREADSHEET)\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong>PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(This section is for PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS ONLY)\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.1. TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nOver the past week I have tried to stick to my action plan posted in section 5.3.4, I have to a large extent been able to do so but the market moves have been quite weird, as far as I am concerned so things I thought I would be able to do I may not have got around to.\r\n\r\nThe unwinding is on and cash is being moved from asset class to asset class and from country to country, one must assume based upon JPY moves of late. I have a feeling that CASH WILL BE KING sooner rather than later.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nI added +507 pips last week and year to date I am now +3,087 pips, which reflects 30% of my annual objective. In comparison to all the shenanigans last year it is a chalk and cheese performance comparison.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nIt is challenging to trade with a backdrop of zero inter-market correlations working. The only asset class that has stayed true to form has been GOLD. GOLD had moved higher as a hedge against inflation, which in my opinion is the only reason for holding GOLD as an asset. Frankly, how people have gotten so excited over GOLD for the past 8 years beggars belief.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nI am operating in what seems to be a sea of RED broker accounts and out of this backdrop comes the odd trade here and there that I take profit on and bank both pips and $$$.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nTo be honest I am closely managing all trade styles apart from POSITION TRADES. In this type of market and the fact that I will allow larger drawdowns based upon monthly ATR numbers, I prefer to park POSITION TRADES and try only to check on my accounts that contain these trades only a couple of times a day.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nOver the past week, I have made most pips from being short USD/JPY. I am expecting a bounce soon and over the weekend I think shorting against 107.30, which was the initial breakdown point would offer a great shorting position. Whether or not we can bounce to this level is debatable. Nevertheless, I want to re-enter the USD/JPY on the short side once again.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.2. SENTIMENT,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:\r\n\r\n</u>\r\n\r\nFundamentally, I am still comfortable with my overall position. I would obviously prefer the NZD/USD at 0.7250 again, this would have a knock-on effect into all my NZD crosses, but I have to be patient.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nIt does look like the CENTRAL BANK DIVERGENCE TRADE may be the set up that drives the USD higher. Technically the USD is not oversold but it has been so bearish for so long, one would think that a relief rally is coming sooner rather than later. The S&amp;P is so extended, but it could go higher again. At the moment correlations stand for nothing and I think that it may take US Treasuries (10 YEAR) to test 3.0% to spark some concern. At the moment, Stocks are doing their own thing.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nOne factor to consider, the monthly 10 YR chart shows a double bottom pattern that comes into play should 3% break to the high side. The measured move is to 4.5%. This move would set the cat amongst the pigeons.\r\n\r\nSo, until common sense and correlations return to the market, patience will be required. You have two options, wait or cover. I am in the school of waiting and adding when price appears to represent better value for the longer-term view.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nSentiment with the USD majors is a little mixed and frankly that would be consistent with the money flows.\r\n\r\n(INSERT MARKET SENTIMENT CHART)\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3. THE WEEK AHEAD:</u>\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.1. ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES THAT INTEREST ME:</u>\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n(INSERT ECONOMIC DATA CHART)\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.2. MY KEY EVENTS ON THIS WEEK’S CALENDAR AND WHY:</u>\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\nIn no particular order: -\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>USD – FOMC MEETING MINUTES:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe minutes from Janet Yellen’s last meeting may reveal some more details on the thoughts of the FOMC with regards to Interest Rate Hikes in 2018 under Jerome Powell as FED chair.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nHaving said that, not too sure any major news from the FED would result in anything more than just a fleeting casual response.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNevertheless, one must note the contents of the minutes from the FED.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u>CAD – CORE RETAIL SALES &amp; CPi:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nStephen Poloz will be watching the FED very closely. If this data is positive my thoughts are that the BOC will raise at the next meeting to keep in pace with the FED. Poloz has stated that rate hikes from the perspective of the BOC are data dependent.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>AUD – MONETARY POLICY MEETING MINUTES:</u>\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\nPhilip Lowe, Governor RBA, has stated recently that the AUS/USD at present levels is a hindrance to the Australian economy. This was the first attempt at jawboning by the RBA since Lowe became governor.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nShould the minutes contain references to the AUD exchange rate this should have an effect on the currency. Usually, in Australia the RBA send out an official after the release to clarify the RBA position. I would call this, if it refers to the currency exchange rate, the start of jawboning!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.3. HOW I WILL APPROACH and TRADE THE MARKET THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\nI will answer this with one word…. CAREFULLY!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nI see no reason to change from last week, although I am looking for an equity failure and so AUD, NZD and CAD currencies should feature most.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nI have enough cross-rates in play or with limit orders in position, so I will not be adding much there.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe JPY should feature this week. I would prefer a spike higher on USD/JPY to sell into.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe EUR and GBP need pullbacks as far as I am concerned and if the equity markets correct these entries should be forthcoming.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>5.3.4. MY “MACRO” TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEK AHEAD:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMy action plan for the week is lighter than usual for obvious reasons: -\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>Establish a medium-term TRADE PLAN with the AUD following the RBA minutes.</li>\r\n 	<li>Formulate a strategy re EUR long and JPY short trades.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.4. CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.4.1. CURRENT LIVE TRADES:\r\n\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n\r\n<u>5.4.2. CURRENT LIMIT ORDER TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.6. FX BROKER NEWS and MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nI am still being invited to “LIVE TRADING” webinars, and I took a couple, but they were not offering much by the way of insightful news or opinions.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nI mentioned a while back that special offers were being used to increase market share, possibly from a small sized cake! Here is an example from RAKUTEN (AUS) that I received via email earlier this week. I no longer trade with AVA TRADE and never used ADMIRAL MARKETS or XM. I have had repeated offers from these brokers over the past two weeks or so.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nI think that times are hard for brokers…\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n(INSERT RAKUTEN SECURITIES AUSTRALIA OFFER)\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><strong>THE FINAL SHOT:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\n\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @ThePremService\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #166 PREMIUM SERVICE\r\nDATE: 17th February 2018\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','I THINK OIL IS ABOUT TO HEAD MUCH LOWER ONCE AGAIN','','inherit','closed','closed','','10999-revision-v1','','','2018-02-17 09:38:54','2018-02-17 14:38:54','',10999,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/10999-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(11003,1,'2018-02-17 09:43:19','2018-02-17 14:43:19','','TWEET (3) 17022018','','inherit','open','closed','','tweet-3-17022018','','','2018-02-17 09:43:47','2018-02-17 14:43:47','',10999,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/TWEET-3-17022018.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(11004,1,'2018-02-17 09:54:51','2018-02-17 14:54:51','&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE FIRST SHOT:</strong><strong> </strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nJust like last week, there are many options on subjects to write about. We are trading in strange times.\r\n\r\nOne-night last week I went back through PDF files that I have stored under the EDUCATION (Trading Essentials) TAB that is inside the PREMIUM SERVICE subscriber section of my website. There are about 60 PDF files in that area, some of them are maybe 4 years old. I was checking for relevance, which is a six-month diary alert.\r\n\r\nNot only are they relevant, but they are as useful today as they were when I first wrote them. The intention was to build up an EDUCATION area for newbie traders and those who had less than 2-3 years’ experience. Reading through some them once again, it prompted me to send out the following 5-part tweet to PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers last Wednesday, just prior to the US close (Wednesday was the day of the massive USD reversal after the CPi data).\r\n\r\nTo read the tweet start from the bottom up!\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/TWEET-3-17022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-11003\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/TWEET-3-17022018-489x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"489\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/TWEET-2-17022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-11002\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/TWEET-2-17022018-462x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"462\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/TWEET1-17022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11001\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/TWEET1-17022018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"562\" height=\"716\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe purpose of placing these tweets in the blog is that after 10 years of trading, I was unsure what to do next. What I had seen during that day, took me by complete surprise and I needed to re-set. It is NOT a crime or weakness to say that you are uncertain of what to do next.\r\n\r\nWe are trading in strange times. Correlations are off. Trying not to be too cynical, but to me at times it seems like algorithms, computer bots and machine-driven theories are driving the markets one way then the other. If this is the case they are NOT interested in any correlations, inter-market or not! Fundamentals count, Technicals are very often ignored and we are trading in a dangerous news driven market. Sometimes, regardless of your experience in front of screens, your best trades are the ones you do NOT take.\r\n\r\nIf you are relatively new to Forex Trading or trading with limited funds, now, may be a good time to take a break for a while until some sense of normality returns.\r\n\r\nStocks are rising, in spite of a fast approaching 3% 10-year treasury yield, inflation entering the U.S. economy placing the FED on a well-advertised increasing interest rate cycle, commodity prices are elevated and the JPY strengthening. Something has got to give but until it does we are on for a crazy ride.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nMany traders lost huge amounts from their broker accounts over the past two weeks. You can talk about RISK MANAGEMENT, POSITION SIZING, TRADING PSYCHOLOGY and “HEAD” MANAGEMENT as reasons. The bottom line is we all stretch the limits from time to time, however, as a Forex Trader, trading longevity will never be achieved unless we trade a TRADE PLAN.\r\n\r\nI want to repeat a section that was in last week’s blog.\r\n\r\n<em>I have blogged about this so many times over the past 5 years or so and you can obviously draw your own conclusions, but, I am now more than ever of the belief after 10 years of trading that in FOREX: -</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>It is all about you\r\n</em><em>You have your machines\r\n</em><em>You have your charts\r\n</em><em>You have your analysis\r\n</em><em>It is you versus the world\r\n</em><em>It is all down to you\r\n</em><em>You will rise or fall on your decisions\r\n</em><em>Whether you are a Fundamental or Technical trader</em></p>\r\n\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><em></em><em>The media is biased. It only wants to promote “GOOD NEWS” because “BAD NEWS” does not get advertising revenue.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em></em><em>Banking analysts SELL their latest book. They do this whether it’s the right thing to do or not.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>Twitter feeds and other Social media can be a very dangerous place to ascertain quality data</em></li>\r\n</ul>\r\nFinally, in this section…\r\n\r\nFrom last week’s blog I must follow up on the sell -off in the DOW / S&amp;P / Nasdaq, when I called the sell-off THE IMMACULATE CORRECTION. I have found a company that shorted and made money. I have only heard of one, others must be known by now but: -\r\n\r\nIBEX INVESTORS based in Denver, Colorado.\r\nAri Rubin, IBEX Investors Director announced on BLOOMBERG TV 17.02.2018.\r\nHEDGE FUND made 8,600% profit from the move with the “VIX SURGE”.\r\n\r\nObviously, millions of retail investors had huge drawdowns in their investment balances. Many went to cash and never re-entered.  I would say that there are still retail investors picking up trading statements and sobbing. These markets are brutal at the moment.\r\n\r\nThe ABF….\r\n\r\nTrading in this market has been challenging from the get go in 2018.\r\n\r\nIt takes an understanding of what currency pairs to trade and when. Timing is everything. As we head into a period when the FED looks likely to be raising rates, the day to day challenges of trading FX will only intensify.\r\n\r\nI am doing nothing different in 2018 than I was doing in 2014. My daily routine is the same. So, what’s made the start of trading in 2018 so explosive over recent years.\r\n\r\nI still listen to lots of people’s opinions each day about the FX market. I read as many bank reports and analysts thoughts each day and to be honest some of them I use as ideas to trade against!\r\n\r\nWhat I am trying to say is that for 10 years now, I watch, listen and read the market every day. I hate to think how many thousands of hours I have spent in front of my screens observing how prices move.\r\n\r\nAll this time involved in research and observing price movements must count for something. This year, is the best start for the PREMIUM SERVICE since it started in 2014.\r\n\r\nGet on board and join from as little as CAD$150.00 per month, conversions are roughly as follows: -\r\n\r\nGBP £90 per month\r\nEUR €100 per month\r\nUSD $120 per month\r\nJPY 12,700 per month\r\nAUD $150 per month\r\n\r\nThis represents great value. You can subscribe for periods as well. Go to my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> for more details under the TAB – “SUBSCRIBE HERE”.\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE performance so far in 2018 is as follows: -\r\n\r\nFebruary 2018 so far:          +1,609 pips\r\nYear to date 2018:               +3,087 pips\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong> MARKET OVERVIEW – MY THOUGHTS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>I THINK OIL IS ABOUT TO HEAD MUCH LOWER ONCE AGAIN</strong></span></p>\r\nWhen I first started trading FX, I used to listen to a short 5-minute segment in a LIVE TV webinar presentation by a commodities trader. Not a catchphrase, but he would often say “IT’S ALL ABOUT COMMODITIES”. So, taken with this phrase, I used it to title a blog a few years ago. Not important, but it stuck in my mind because I wrote it while in a Caesar’s Palace hotel bedroom in Vegas.\r\n\r\nI believe that it will be OIL that will, for the want of a better phrase “Sort these markets out”.\r\n\r\nEvery morning as I set myself up for the day, screens go on and with coffee in hand I look through my charts for my key indicators one by one GOLD, COPPER, OIL, 10-YEAR U.S. BONDS, DXY, USD/CAD, AUD/USD and USD/SEK.\r\n\r\nI think to myself almost every day: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>OIL is a dying commodity.</li>\r\n 	<li>OPEC as a cartel is not what it was. It no longer has the power it once had. OPEC controls 40% of the production and holds about 60% of the distribution</li>\r\n 	<li>Data from OPEC cannot be trusted, and OPEC members are very loosely united.</li>\r\n 	<li>The OIL market is basically corrupt; it is heavily manipulated by several large players.So</li>\r\n 	<li>In the name of sanity why is WTi priced above $60 per barrel?</li>\r\n 	<li>I still laugh at how such a FREE TRADE world gives such an open cartel so much media time.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nI know it’s crazy, but I just cannot wrap my head around the way OIL prices and OPEC carry so much weight. The fact is that they do, and, it is what it is…. suck it up!\r\n\r\nHere are my thoughts moving forward…\r\n\r\nThe U.S. is NOT an OPEC member and I seriously doubt it ever will be. The U.S. is now the biggest producer of OIL in the world on the basis that Saudi Arabia is subject to OPEC production quotas, and Russia, also NOT in OPEC, but, has aligned with OPEC to limit production output.\r\n\r\nThe IEA (International Energy Agency) and the US EIA (Energy Information Administration) have both ramped up numbers based on US shale production for 2018. In fact, most noticeably, the EIA stated recently that US shale production would increase by 1.3 million barrels per day by March 2018 over the March 2017 levels.\r\n\r\nI have no doubts in my continuing beliefs that OPEC is a fragile coalition. The likes of Nigeria, Iran, Iraq, Angola and Libya are known to be in need of greater production to meet internal economic needs and requirements. The production cut agreement is, in my opinion, hanging by the thread. Many countries who signed up for the production cuts are NOT in OPEC and have no loyalty to the cause other than price fixing benefits and greed. I also believe these non OPEC affiliates did not believe that they were signing up on a 2-3 year deal!\r\n\r\nLooking at prices…\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/WTi-DAILY-FOR-BLOG-17022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10976\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/WTi-DAILY-FOR-BLOG-17022018-1024x413.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"413\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nLooking at the charts above, technically below $58.00 and OIL looks like a move lower towards the low $50’s would be in view once again. OIL is always about supply and demand. It is the classic economic supply and demand theory discussed in every classroom.\r\n\r\nIt is noted though that the move higher is impressive and the recent move lower may in fact just be technical.\r\n\r\nHowever…\r\n\r\nThe weaker USD has kept OIL prices inflated. The price of Oil has skyrocketed 40% since the middle of 2017, but the greed of OPEC opened the door for the US shale producers to step back in with improved methods in extracting OIL from shale for less cost than before. It has been well documented this time around that every dollar above $40-$45 and US shale producers are making money.\r\n\r\nMoving forward; what if…\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>The USD bounces off lows and spikes higher.</li>\r\n 	<li>The price of OIL falls back to say the region of $53-$55 per barrel.</li>\r\n 	<li>The supply and demand curves show that supply outweighs demand based on flows being increased by the US.</li>\r\n 	<li>With US interest rate hikes due this year, this alone will have an effect on Oil pricing vis-à-vis it’s USD relationship.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nI know that the above are “what if’s”, but do I think that OPEC would remain united if one or two cracks appeared? Not in a month of Sunday’s, there would be more cracks on view than one would see on a fully operational building site.\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, the fundamentals with higher OIL prices have too many cracks that have huge potential to appear and OPEC could not, faced with these issues, remain united.\r\n\r\nIf you do NOT like the “what if’s”… what about the bigger picture…\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>US production keeps rising</li>\r\n 	<li>Rig counts continue to increase which in turn increases production output and supply. Up by 7 last week. 4 weeks in a row of increases. Over 30% more than this time last year.</li>\r\n 	<li>Inventories just keep on building (Supply and Demand)</li>\r\n 	<li>This creates price pressure</li>\r\n 	<li>This places heat on the OPEC members to stay in line</li>\r\n 	<li>The weaker participants move away from the herd</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nIf the OPEC agreement breaks and a free for all ensues, the OIL price would plummet.\r\n\r\nWill this happen pre-US interest rate increases? I doubt it, but it could.\r\n\r\nThe OPEC production limit agreement consists of such a bizarre collection of countries united by greed to artificially keep OIL prices inflated, when cracks appear they will become gaping cracks very quickly as greed rules this commodity.\r\n\r\nI believe that when the OIL price moves lower it will be the catalyst that beings back inter-market correlations once again. OIL is integral to correlations in several markets; FX, Commodities, Futures and Stocks.\r\n\r\nIs the price of OIL about to collapse?\r\n\r\nWe are not far away from this in my opinion and with it we should have another bout of serious volatility as we find new equilibrium. Below $50.00, we will see another race to the bottom.\r\n\r\nIt is highly inflated at the moment but technical reasons as well as greed will spiral the price lower.\r\n\r\nFrom an FX perspective this gives us long USD/CAD, USD/NOK and USD/MXN opportunities.\r\n\r\nThese are trades that offer huge retracement potentials in 2018. Keep this on your RADAR.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>USD SUPPORT and RESISTANCE with my BIAS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/TCHART-17022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-10977\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/TCHART-17022018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1018\" height=\"890\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE PREMIUM SERVICE TRADING SUMMARY:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\n(Incorporating the last 5 PREMIUM SERVICE TRADES)\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/PS-SUMMARY-17022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10978\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/PS-SUMMARY-17022018-1024x857.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"857\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(This section is for PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS ONLY)\r\n<u>5.1. TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\nOver the past week I have tried to stick to my action plan posted in section 5.3.4, I have to a large extent been able to do so but the market moves have been quite weird, as far as I am concerned so things I thought I would be able to do I may not have got around to.\r\n\r\nThe unwinding is on and cash is being moved from asset class to asset class and from country to country, one must assume based upon JPY moves of late. I have a feeling that CASH WILL BE KING sooner rather than later.\r\n\r\nI added +507 pips last week and year to date I am now +3,087 pips, which reflects 30% of my annual objective. In comparison to all the shenanigans last year it is a chalk and cheese performance comparison.\r\n\r\nIt is challenging to trade with a backdrop of zero inter-market correlations working. The only asset class that has stayed true to form has been GOLD. GOLD had moved higher as a hedge against inflation, which in my opinion is the only reason for holding GOLD as an asset. Frankly, how people have gotten so excited over GOLD for the past 8 years beggars belief.\r\n\r\nI am operating in what seems to be a sea of RED broker accounts and out of this backdrop comes the odd trade here and there that I take profit on and bank both pips and $$$.\r\n\r\nTo be honest I am closely managing all trade styles apart from POSITION TRADES. In this type of market and the fact that I will allow larger drawdowns based upon monthly ATR numbers, I prefer to park POSITION TRADES and try only to check on my accounts that contain these trades only a couple of times a day.\r\n\r\nOver the past week, I have made most pips from being short USD/JPY. I am expecting a bounce soon and over the weekend I think shorting against 107.30, which was the initial breakdown point would offer a great shorting position. Whether or not we can bounce to this level is debatable. Nevertheless, I want to re-enter the USD/JPY on the short side once again.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.2. SENTIMENT,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:</u>\r\n\r\nFundamentally, I am still comfortable with my overall position. I would obviously prefer the NZD/USD at 0.7250 again, this would have a knock-on effect into all my NZD crosses, but I have to be patient.\r\n\r\nIt does look like the CENTRAL BANK DIVERGENCE TRADE may be the set up that drives the USD higher. Technically the USD is not oversold but it has been so bearish for so long, one would think that a relief rally is coming sooner rather than later. The S&amp;P is so extended, but it could go higher again. At the moment correlations stand for nothing and I think that it may take US Treasuries (10 YEAR) to test 3.0% to spark some concern. At the moment, Stocks are doing their own thing.\r\n\r\nOne factor to consider, the monthly 10 YR chart shows a double bottom pattern that comes into play should 3% break to the high side. The measured move is to 4.5%. This move would set the cat amongst the pigeons.\r\n\r\nSo, until common sense and correlations return to the market, patience will be required. You have two options, wait or cover. I am in the school of waiting and adding when price appears to represent better value for the longer-term view.\r\n\r\nSentiment with the USD majors is a little mixed and frankly that would be consistent with the money flows.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/SENTIMENT-17022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10983\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/SENTIMENT-17022018-778x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"778\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.3. THE WEEK AHEAD:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.1. ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES THAT INTEREST ME:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/ECON-DATA-170022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10979\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/ECON-DATA-170022018-1024x805.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"805\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.2. MY KEY EVENTS ON THIS WEEK’S CALENDAR AND WHY:</u>\r\n\r\nIn no particular order: -\r\n\r\n<u>USD – FOMC MEETING MINUTES:</u>\r\n\r\nThe minutes from Janet Yellen’s last meeting may reveal some more details on the thoughts of the FOMC with regards to Interest Rate Hikes in 2018 under Jerome Powell as FED chair.\r\n\r\nHaving said that, not too sure any major news from the FED would result in anything more than just a fleeting casual response.\r\n\r\nNevertheless, one must note the contents of the minutes from the FED.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>CAD – CORE RETAIL SALES &amp; CPi:</u>\r\n\r\nStephen Poloz will be watching the FED very closely. If this data is positive my thoughts are that the BOC will raise at the next meeting to keep in pace with the FED. Poloz has stated that rate hikes from the perspective of the BOC are data dependent.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>AUD – MONETARY POLICY MEETING MINUTES:</u>\r\n\r\nPhilip Lowe, Governor RBA, has stated recently that the AUS/USD at present levels is a hindrance to the Australian economy. This was the first attempt at jawboning by the RBA since Lowe became governor.\r\n\r\nShould the minutes contain references to the AUD exchange rate this should have an effect on the currency. Usually, in Australia the RBA send out an official after the release to clarify the RBA position. I would call this, if it refers to the currency exchange rate, the start of jawboning!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.3. HOW I WILL APPROACH and TRADE THE MARKET THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\nI will answer this with one word…. CAREFULLY!\r\n\r\nI see no reason to change from last week, although I am looking for an equity failure and so AUD, NZD and CAD currencies should feature most.\r\n\r\nI have enough cross-rates in play or with limit orders in position, so I will not be adding much there.\r\n\r\nThe JPY should feature this week. I would prefer a spike higher on USD/JPY to sell into.\r\n\r\nThe EUR and GBP need pullbacks as far as I am concerned and if the equity markets correct these entries should be forthcoming.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>5.3.4. MY “MACRO” TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEK AHEAD:</u>\r\n\r\nMy action plan for the week is lighter than usual for obvious reasons: -\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>Establish a medium-term TRADE PLAN with the AUD following the RBA minutes.</li>\r\n 	<li>Formulate a strategy re EUR long and JPY short trades.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.4. CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.4.1. CURRENT LIVE TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/LIVE-TRADES-17022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10982\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/LIVE-TRADES-17022018-1024x1018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"1018\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u>5.4.2. CURRENT LIMIT ORDER TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/LIMIT-ORDERS-17022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10981\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/LIMIT-ORDERS-17022018-1024x840.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"840\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.6. FX BROKER NEWS and MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\nI am still being invited to “LIVE TRADING” webinars, and I took a couple, but they were not offering much by the way of insightful news or opinions.\r\n\r\nI mentioned a while back that special offers were being used to increase market share, possibly from a small sized cake! Here is an example from RAKUTEN (AUS) that I received via email earlier this week. I no longer trade with AVA TRADE and never used ADMIRAL MARKETS or XM. I have had repeated offers from these brokers over the past two weeks or so.\r\n\r\nI think that times are hard for brokers…\r\n\r\n<strong><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/RAKUTEN-FX-17022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10980\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/RAKUTEN-FX-17022018-728x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"728\" height=\"1024\" /></a> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><strong>THE FINAL SHOT:</strong><strong> </strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @ThePremService\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #166 PREMIUM SERVICE\r\nDATE: 17th February 2018','I THINK OIL IS ABOUT TO HEAD MUCH LOWER ONCE AGAIN','','inherit','closed','closed','','10999-revision-v1','','','2018-02-17 09:54:51','2018-02-17 14:54:51','',10999,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/10999-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(11005,1,'2018-02-17 10:08:37','2018-02-17 15:08:37','&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE FIRST SHOT:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nJust like last week, there are many options on subjects to write about. We are trading in strange times.\r\n\r\nOne-night last week I went back through PDF files that I have stored under the EDUCATION (Trading Essentials) TAB that is inside the PREMIUM SERVICE subscriber section of my website. There are about 60 PDF files in that area, some of them are maybe 4 years old. I was checking for relevance, which is a six-month diary alert.\r\n\r\nNot only are they relevant, but they are as useful today as they were when I first wrote them. The intention was to build up an EDUCATION area for newbie traders and those who had less than 2-3 years’ experience. Reading through some them once again, it prompted me to send out the following 5-part tweet to PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers last Wednesday, just prior to the US close (Wednesday was the day of the massive USD reversal after the CPi data).\r\n\r\nTo read the tweet start from the bottom up!\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/TWEET-3-17022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-11003\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/TWEET-3-17022018-489x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"489\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/TWEET-2-17022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-11002\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/TWEET-2-17022018-462x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"462\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/TWEET1-17022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11001\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/TWEET1-17022018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"562\" height=\"716\" /></a>\r\n\r\nThe purpose of placing these tweets in the blog is that after 10 years of trading, I was unsure what to do next. What I had seen during that day, took me by complete surprise and I needed to re-set. It is NOT a crime or weakness to say that you are uncertain of what to do next.\r\n\r\nWe are trading in strange times. Correlations are off. Trying not to be too cynical, but to me at times it seems like algorithms, computer bots and machine-driven theories are driving the markets one way then the other. If this is the case they are NOT interested in any correlations, inter-market or not! Fundamentals count, Technicals are very often ignored and we are trading in a dangerous news driven market. Sometimes, regardless of your experience in front of screens, your best trades are the ones you do NOT take.\r\n\r\nIf you are relatively new to Forex Trading or trading with limited funds, now, may be a good time to take a break for a while until some sense of normality returns.\r\n\r\nStocks are rising, in spite of a fast approaching 3% 10-year treasury yield, inflation entering the U.S. economy placing the FED on a well-advertised increasing interest rate cycle, commodity prices are elevated and the JPY strengthening. Something has got to give but until it does we are on for a crazy ride.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nMany traders lost huge amounts from their broker accounts over the past two weeks. You can talk about RISK MANAGEMENT, POSITION SIZING, TRADING PSYCHOLOGY and “HEAD” MANAGEMENT as reasons. The bottom line is we all stretch the limits from time to time, however, as a Forex Trader, trading longevity will never be achieved unless we trade a TRADE PLAN.\r\n\r\nI want to repeat a section that was in last week’s blog.\r\n\r\n<em>I have blogged about this so many times over the past 5 years or so and you can obviously draw your own conclusions, but, I am now more than ever of the belief after 10 years of trading that in FOREX: -</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>It is all about you\r\n</em><em>You have your machines\r\n</em><em>You have your charts\r\n</em><em>You have your analysis\r\n</em><em>It is you versus the world\r\n</em><em>It is all down to you\r\n</em><em>You will rise or fall on your decisions\r\n</em><em>Whether you are a Fundamental or Technical trader</em></p>\r\n\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><em>The media is biased. It only wants to promote “GOOD NEWS” because “BAD NEWS” does not get advertising revenue.\r\n</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>Banking analysts SELL their latest book. They do this whether it’s the right thing to do or not.\r\n</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>Twitter feeds and other Social media can be a very dangerous place to ascertain quality data.</em></li>\r\n</ul>\r\nFinally, in this section…\r\n\r\nFrom last week’s blog I must follow up on the sell -off in the DOW / S&amp;P / Nasdaq, when I called the sell-off THE IMMACULATE CORRECTION. I have found a company that shorted and made money. I have only heard of one, others must be known by now but: -\r\n\r\nIBEX INVESTORS based in Denver, Colorado.\r\nAri Rubin, IBEX Investors Director announced on BLOOMBERG TV 17.02.2018.\r\nHEDGE FUND made 8,600% profit from the move with the “VIX SURGE”.\r\n\r\nObviously, millions of retail investors had huge drawdowns in their investment balances. Many went to cash and never re-entered.  I would say that there are still retail investors picking up trading statements and sobbing. These markets are brutal at the moment.\r\n\r\nThe ABF….\r\n\r\nTrading in this market has been challenging from the get go in 2018.\r\n\r\nIt takes an understanding of what currency pairs to trade and when. Timing is everything. As we head into a period when the FED looks likely to be raising rates, the day to day challenges of trading FX will only intensify.\r\n\r\nI am doing nothing different in 2018 than I was doing in 2014. My daily routine is the same. So, what’s made the start of trading in 2018 so explosive over recent years. I still listen to lots of people’s opinions each day about the FX market. I read as many bank reports and analysts thoughts each day and to be honest some of them I use as ideas to trade against!\r\n\r\nWhat I am trying to say is that for 10 years now, I watch, listen and read the market every day. I hate to think how many thousands of hours I have spent in front of my screens observing how prices move.\r\n\r\nAll this time involved in research and observing price movements must count for something. This year, is the best start for the PREMIUM SERVICE since it started in 2014.\r\n\r\nGet on board and join from as little as CAD$150.00 per month, conversions are roughly as follows: -\r\n\r\nGBP £90 per month\r\nEUR €100 per month\r\nUSD $120 per month\r\nJPY 12,700 per month\r\nAUD $150 per month\r\n\r\nThis represents great value.\r\n\r\nYou can subscribe for periods as well. Go to my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> for more details under the TAB – “SUBSCRIBE HERE”.\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE performance so far in 2018 is as follows: -\r\n\r\nFebruary 2018 so far:          +1,609 pips\r\nYear to date 2018:               +3,087 pips\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong> MARKET OVERVIEW – MY THOUGHTS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>I THINK OIL IS ABOUT TO HEAD MUCH LOWER ONCE AGAIN</strong></span></p>\r\nWhen I first started trading FX, I used to listen to a short 5-minute segment in a LIVE TV webinar presentation by a commodities trader. Not a catchphrase, but he would often say “IT’S ALL ABOUT COMMODITIES”. So, taken with this phrase, I used it to title a blog a few years ago. Not important, but it stuck in my mind because I wrote it while in a Caesar’s Palace hotel bedroom in Vegas.\r\n\r\nI believe that it will be OIL that will, for the want of a better phrase “Sort these markets out”.\r\n\r\nEvery morning as I set myself up for the day, screens go on and with coffee in hand I look through my charts for my key indicators one by one GOLD, COPPER, OIL, 10-YEAR U.S. BONDS, DXY, USD/CAD, AUD/USD and USD/SEK.\r\n\r\nI think to myself almost every day: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>OIL is a dying commodity.</li>\r\n 	<li>OPEC as a cartel is not what it was. It no longer has the power it once had. OPEC controls 40% of the production and holds about 60% of the distribution</li>\r\n 	<li>Data from OPEC cannot be trusted, and OPEC members are very loosely united.</li>\r\n 	<li>The OIL market is basically corrupt; it is heavily manipulated by several large players.\r\n\r\nSo</li>\r\n 	<li>In the name of sanity why is WTi priced above $60 per barrel?</li>\r\n 	<li>I still laugh at how such a FREE TRADE world gives such an open cartel so much media time.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nI know it’s crazy, but I just cannot wrap my head around the way OIL prices and OPEC carry so much weight. The fact is that they do, and, it is what it is…. suck it up!\r\n\r\nHere are my thoughts moving forward…\r\n\r\nThe U.S. is NOT an OPEC member and I seriously doubt it ever will be. The U.S. is now the biggest producer of OIL in the world on the basis that Saudi Arabia is subject to OPEC production quotas, and Russia, also NOT in OPEC, but, has aligned with OPEC to limit production output.\r\n\r\nThe IEA (International Energy Agency) and the US EIA (Energy Information Administration) have both ramped up numbers based on US shale production for 2018. In fact, most noticeably, the EIA stated recently that US shale production would increase by 1.3 million barrels per day by March 2018 over the March 2017 levels.\r\n\r\nI have no doubts in my continuing beliefs that OPEC is a fragile coalition. The likes of Nigeria, Iran, Iraq, Angola and Libya are known to be in need of greater production to meet internal economic needs and requirements. The production cut agreement is, in my opinion, hanging by the thread. Many countries who signed up for the production cuts are NOT in OPEC and have no loyalty to the cause other than price fixing benefits and greed. I also believe these non OPEC affiliates did not believe that they were signing up on a 2-3 year deal!\r\n\r\nLooking at prices…\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/WTi-DAILY-FOR-BLOG-17022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10976\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/WTi-DAILY-FOR-BLOG-17022018-1024x413.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"413\" /></a>\r\n\r\nLooking at the charts above, technically below $58.00 and OIL looks like a move lower towards the low $50’s would be in view once again. OIL is always about supply and demand. It is the classic economic supply and demand theory discussed in every classroom.\r\n\r\nIt is noted though that the move higher is impressive and the recent move lower may in fact just be technical.\r\n\r\nHowever…\r\n\r\nThe weaker USD has kept OIL prices inflated. The price of Oil has skyrocketed 40% since the middle of 2017, but the greed of OPEC opened the door for the US shale producers to step back in with improved methods in extracting OIL from shale for less cost than before. It has been well documented this time around that every dollar above $40-$45 and US shale producers are making money.\r\n\r\nMoving forward; what if…\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>The USD bounces off lows and spikes higher.</li>\r\n 	<li>The price of OIL falls back to say the region of $53-$55 per barrel.</li>\r\n 	<li>The supply and demand curves show that supply outweighs demand based on flows being increased by the US.</li>\r\n 	<li>With US interest rate hikes due this year, this alone will have an effect on Oil pricing vis-à-vis it’s USD relationship.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nI know that the above are “what if’s”, but do I think that OPEC would remain united if one or two cracks appeared? Not in a month of Sunday’s, there would be more cracks on view than one would see on a fully operational building site.\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, the fundamentals with higher OIL prices have too many cracks that have huge potential to appear and OPEC could not, faced with these issues, remain united.\r\n\r\nIf you do NOT like the “what if’s”… what about the bigger picture…\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>US production keeps rising</li>\r\n 	<li>Rig counts continue to increase which in turn increases production output and supply. Up by 7 last week. 4 weeks in a row of increases. Over 30% more than this time last year.</li>\r\n 	<li>Inventories just keep on building (Supply and Demand)</li>\r\n 	<li>This creates price pressure</li>\r\n 	<li>This places heat on the OPEC members to stay in line</li>\r\n 	<li>The weaker participants move away from the herd</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nIf the OPEC agreement breaks and a free for all ensues, the OIL price would plummet.\r\n\r\nWill this happen pre-US interest rate increases? I doubt it, but it could.\r\n\r\nThe OPEC production limit agreement consists of such a bizarre collection of countries united by greed to artificially keep OIL prices inflated, when cracks appear they will become gaping cracks very quickly as greed rules this commodity.\r\n\r\nI believe that when the OIL price moves lower it will be the catalyst that beings back inter-market correlations once again. OIL is integral to correlations in several markets; FX, Commodities, Futures and Stocks.\r\n\r\nIs the price of OIL about to collapse?\r\n\r\nWe are not far away from this in my opinion and with it we should have another bout of serious volatility as we find new equilibriums. Below $50.00, we will see another race to the bottom.\r\n\r\nIt is highly inflated at the moment but technical reasons as well as greed will spiral the price lower.\r\n\r\nFrom an FX perspective this gives us long USD/CAD, USD/NOK and USD/MXN opportunities.\r\n\r\nThese are trades that offer huge retracement potentials in 2018. Keep this on your RADAR.\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>USD SUPPORT and RESISTANCE with my BIAS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/TCHART-17022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-10977\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/TCHART-17022018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1018\" height=\"890\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE PREMIUM SERVICE TRADING SUMMARY:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\n(Incorporating the last 5 PREMIUM SERVICE TRADES)\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/PS-SUMMARY-17022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10978\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/PS-SUMMARY-17022018-1024x857.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"857\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(This section is for PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS ONLY)\r\n\r\n<u>5.1. TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.2. SENTIMENT,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3. THE WEEK AHEAD:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.1. ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES THAT INTEREST ME:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.2. MY KEY EVENTS ON THIS WEEK’S CALENDAR AND WHY:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.3. HOW I WILL APPROACH and TRADE THE MARKET THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.4. MY “MACRO” TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEK AHEAD:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.4. CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.4.1. CURRENT LIVE TRADES:\r\n\r\n</u> <u>5.4.2. CURRENT LIMIT ORDER TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.5. FX BROKER NEWS and MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE FINAL SHOT:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #FREE NEWSLETTER\r\nDATE: 17th February 2018','I THINK OIL IS ABOUT TO HEAD MUCH LOWER ONCE AGAIN','','publish','open','closed','','think-oil-head-much-lower','','','2018-02-17 10:08:37','2018-02-17 15:08:37','',0,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?p=11005',0,'post','',0),(11006,1,'2018-02-17 10:08:37','2018-02-17 15:08:37','&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE FIRST SHOT:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nJust like last week, there are many options on subjects to write about. We are trading in strange times.\r\n\r\nOne-night last week I went back through PDF files that I have stored under the EDUCATION (Trading Essentials) TAB that is inside the PREMIUM SERVICE subscriber section of my website. There are about 60 PDF files in that area, some of them are maybe 4 years old. I was checking for relevance, which is a six-month diary alert.\r\n\r\nNot only are they relevant, but they are as useful today as they were when I first wrote them. The intention was to build up an EDUCATION area for newbie traders and those who had less than 2-3 years’ experience. Reading through some them once again, it prompted me to send out the following 5-part tweet to PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers last Wednesday, just prior to the US close (Wednesday was the day of the massive USD reversal after the CPi data).\r\n\r\nTo read the tweet start from the bottom up!\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/TWEET-3-17022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-11003\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/TWEET-3-17022018-489x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"489\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/TWEET-2-17022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-11002\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/TWEET-2-17022018-462x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"462\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/TWEET1-17022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11001\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/TWEET1-17022018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"562\" height=\"716\" /></a>\r\n\r\nThe purpose of placing these tweets in the blog is that after 10 years of trading, I was unsure what to do next. What I had seen during that day, took me by complete surprise and I needed to re-set. It is NOT a crime or weakness to say that you are uncertain of what to do next.\r\n\r\nWe are trading in strange times. Correlations are off. Trying not to be too cynical, but to me at times it seems like algorithms, computer bots and machine-driven theories are driving the markets one way then the other. If this is the case they are NOT interested in any correlations, inter-market or not! Fundamentals count, Technicals are very often ignored and we are trading in a dangerous news driven market. Sometimes, regardless of your experience in front of screens, your best trades are the ones you do NOT take.\r\n\r\nIf you are relatively new to Forex Trading or trading with limited funds, now, may be a good time to take a break for a while until some sense of normality returns.\r\n\r\nStocks are rising, in spite of a fast approaching 3% 10-year treasury yield, inflation entering the U.S. economy placing the FED on a well-advertised increasing interest rate cycle, commodity prices are elevated and the JPY strengthening. Something has got to give but until it does we are on for a crazy ride.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nMany traders lost huge amounts from their broker accounts over the past two weeks. You can talk about RISK MANAGEMENT, POSITION SIZING, TRADING PSYCHOLOGY and “HEAD” MANAGEMENT as reasons. The bottom line is we all stretch the limits from time to time, however, as a Forex Trader, trading longevity will never be achieved unless we trade a TRADE PLAN.\r\n\r\nI want to repeat a section that was in last week’s blog.\r\n\r\n<em>I have blogged about this so many times over the past 5 years or so and you can obviously draw your own conclusions, but, I am now more than ever of the belief after 10 years of trading that in FOREX: -</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>It is all about you\r\n</em><em>You have your machines\r\n</em><em>You have your charts\r\n</em><em>You have your analysis\r\n</em><em>It is you versus the world\r\n</em><em>It is all down to you\r\n</em><em>You will rise or fall on your decisions\r\n</em><em>Whether you are a Fundamental or Technical trader</em></p>\r\n\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><em>The media is biased. It only wants to promote “GOOD NEWS” because “BAD NEWS” does not get advertising revenue.\r\n</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>Banking analysts SELL their latest book. They do this whether it’s the right thing to do or not.\r\n</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>Twitter feeds and other Social media can be a very dangerous place to ascertain quality data.</em></li>\r\n</ul>\r\nFinally, in this section…\r\n\r\nFrom last week’s blog I must follow up on the sell -off in the DOW / S&amp;P / Nasdaq, when I called the sell-off THE IMMACULATE CORRECTION. I have found a company that shorted and made money. I have only heard of one, others must be known by now but: -\r\n\r\nIBEX INVESTORS based in Denver, Colorado.\r\nAri Rubin, IBEX Investors Director announced on BLOOMBERG TV 17.02.2018.\r\nHEDGE FUND made 8,600% profit from the move with the “VIX SURGE”.\r\n\r\nObviously, millions of retail investors had huge drawdowns in their investment balances. Many went to cash and never re-entered.  I would say that there are still retail investors picking up trading statements and sobbing. These markets are brutal at the moment.\r\n\r\nThe ABF….\r\n\r\nTrading in this market has been challenging from the get go in 2018.\r\n\r\nIt takes an understanding of what currency pairs to trade and when. Timing is everything. As we head into a period when the FED looks likely to be raising rates, the day to day challenges of trading FX will only intensify.\r\n\r\nI am doing nothing different in 2018 than I was doing in 2014. My daily routine is the same. So, what’s made the start of trading in 2018 so explosive over recent years. I still listen to lots of people’s opinions each day about the FX market. I read as many bank reports and analysts thoughts each day and to be honest some of them I use as ideas to trade against!\r\n\r\nWhat I am trying to say is that for 10 years now, I watch, listen and read the market every day. I hate to think how many thousands of hours I have spent in front of my screens observing how prices move.\r\n\r\nAll this time involved in research and observing price movements must count for something. This year, is the best start for the PREMIUM SERVICE since it started in 2014.\r\n\r\nGet on board and join from as little as CAD$150.00 per month, conversions are roughly as follows: -\r\n\r\nGBP £90 per month\r\nEUR €100 per month\r\nUSD $120 per month\r\nJPY 12,700 per month\r\nAUD $150 per month\r\n\r\nThis represents great value.\r\n\r\nYou can subscribe for periods as well. Go to my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> for more details under the TAB – “SUBSCRIBE HERE”.\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE performance so far in 2018 is as follows: -\r\n\r\nFebruary 2018 so far:          +1,609 pips\r\nYear to date 2018:               +3,087 pips\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong> MARKET OVERVIEW – MY THOUGHTS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>I THINK OIL IS ABOUT TO HEAD MUCH LOWER ONCE AGAIN</strong></span></p>\r\nWhen I first started trading FX, I used to listen to a short 5-minute segment in a LIVE TV webinar presentation by a commodities trader. Not a catchphrase, but he would often say “IT’S ALL ABOUT COMMODITIES”. So, taken with this phrase, I used it to title a blog a few years ago. Not important, but it stuck in my mind because I wrote it while in a Caesar’s Palace hotel bedroom in Vegas.\r\n\r\nI believe that it will be OIL that will, for the want of a better phrase “Sort these markets out”.\r\n\r\nEvery morning as I set myself up for the day, screens go on and with coffee in hand I look through my charts for my key indicators one by one GOLD, COPPER, OIL, 10-YEAR U.S. BONDS, DXY, USD/CAD, AUD/USD and USD/SEK.\r\n\r\nI think to myself almost every day: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>OIL is a dying commodity.</li>\r\n 	<li>OPEC as a cartel is not what it was. It no longer has the power it once had. OPEC controls 40% of the production and holds about 60% of the distribution</li>\r\n 	<li>Data from OPEC cannot be trusted, and OPEC members are very loosely united.</li>\r\n 	<li>The OIL market is basically corrupt; it is heavily manipulated by several large players.\r\n\r\nSo</li>\r\n 	<li>In the name of sanity why is WTi priced above $60 per barrel?</li>\r\n 	<li>I still laugh at how such a FREE TRADE world gives such an open cartel so much media time.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nI know it’s crazy, but I just cannot wrap my head around the way OIL prices and OPEC carry so much weight. The fact is that they do, and, it is what it is…. suck it up!\r\n\r\nHere are my thoughts moving forward…\r\n\r\nThe U.S. is NOT an OPEC member and I seriously doubt it ever will be. The U.S. is now the biggest producer of OIL in the world on the basis that Saudi Arabia is subject to OPEC production quotas, and Russia, also NOT in OPEC, but, has aligned with OPEC to limit production output.\r\n\r\nThe IEA (International Energy Agency) and the US EIA (Energy Information Administration) have both ramped up numbers based on US shale production for 2018. In fact, most noticeably, the EIA stated recently that US shale production would increase by 1.3 million barrels per day by March 2018 over the March 2017 levels.\r\n\r\nI have no doubts in my continuing beliefs that OPEC is a fragile coalition. The likes of Nigeria, Iran, Iraq, Angola and Libya are known to be in need of greater production to meet internal economic needs and requirements. The production cut agreement is, in my opinion, hanging by the thread. Many countries who signed up for the production cuts are NOT in OPEC and have no loyalty to the cause other than price fixing benefits and greed. I also believe these non OPEC affiliates did not believe that they were signing up on a 2-3 year deal!\r\n\r\nLooking at prices…\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/WTi-DAILY-FOR-BLOG-17022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10976\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/WTi-DAILY-FOR-BLOG-17022018-1024x413.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"413\" /></a>\r\n\r\nLooking at the charts above, technically below $58.00 and OIL looks like a move lower towards the low $50’s would be in view once again. OIL is always about supply and demand. It is the classic economic supply and demand theory discussed in every classroom.\r\n\r\nIt is noted though that the move higher is impressive and the recent move lower may in fact just be technical.\r\n\r\nHowever…\r\n\r\nThe weaker USD has kept OIL prices inflated. The price of Oil has skyrocketed 40% since the middle of 2017, but the greed of OPEC opened the door for the US shale producers to step back in with improved methods in extracting OIL from shale for less cost than before. It has been well documented this time around that every dollar above $40-$45 and US shale producers are making money.\r\n\r\nMoving forward; what if…\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>The USD bounces off lows and spikes higher.</li>\r\n 	<li>The price of OIL falls back to say the region of $53-$55 per barrel.</li>\r\n 	<li>The supply and demand curves show that supply outweighs demand based on flows being increased by the US.</li>\r\n 	<li>With US interest rate hikes due this year, this alone will have an effect on Oil pricing vis-à-vis it’s USD relationship.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nI know that the above are “what if’s”, but do I think that OPEC would remain united if one or two cracks appeared? Not in a month of Sunday’s, there would be more cracks on view than one would see on a fully operational building site.\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, the fundamentals with higher OIL prices have too many cracks that have huge potential to appear and OPEC could not, faced with these issues, remain united.\r\n\r\nIf you do NOT like the “what if’s”… what about the bigger picture…\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>US production keeps rising</li>\r\n 	<li>Rig counts continue to increase which in turn increases production output and supply. Up by 7 last week. 4 weeks in a row of increases. Over 30% more than this time last year.</li>\r\n 	<li>Inventories just keep on building (Supply and Demand)</li>\r\n 	<li>This creates price pressure</li>\r\n 	<li>This places heat on the OPEC members to stay in line</li>\r\n 	<li>The weaker participants move away from the herd</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nIf the OPEC agreement breaks and a free for all ensues, the OIL price would plummet.\r\n\r\nWill this happen pre-US interest rate increases? I doubt it, but it could.\r\n\r\nThe OPEC production limit agreement consists of such a bizarre collection of countries united by greed to artificially keep OIL prices inflated, when cracks appear they will become gaping cracks very quickly as greed rules this commodity.\r\n\r\nI believe that when the OIL price moves lower it will be the catalyst that beings back inter-market correlations once again. OIL is integral to correlations in several markets; FX, Commodities, Futures and Stocks.\r\n\r\nIs the price of OIL about to collapse?\r\n\r\nWe are not far away from this in my opinion and with it we should have another bout of serious volatility as we find new equilibriums. Below $50.00, we will see another race to the bottom.\r\n\r\nIt is highly inflated at the moment but technical reasons as well as greed will spiral the price lower.\r\n\r\nFrom an FX perspective this gives us long USD/CAD, USD/NOK and USD/MXN opportunities.\r\n\r\nThese are trades that offer huge retracement potentials in 2018. Keep this on your RADAR.\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>USD SUPPORT and RESISTANCE with my BIAS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/TCHART-17022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-10977\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/TCHART-17022018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1018\" height=\"890\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE PREMIUM SERVICE TRADING SUMMARY:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\n(Incorporating the last 5 PREMIUM SERVICE TRADES)\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/PS-SUMMARY-17022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10978\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/PS-SUMMARY-17022018-1024x857.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"857\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(This section is for PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS ONLY)\r\n\r\n<u>5.1. TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.2. SENTIMENT,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3. THE WEEK AHEAD:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.1. ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES THAT INTEREST ME:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.2. MY KEY EVENTS ON THIS WEEK’S CALENDAR AND WHY:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.3. HOW I WILL APPROACH and TRADE THE MARKET THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.4. MY “MACRO” TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEK AHEAD:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.4. CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.4.1. CURRENT LIVE TRADES:\r\n\r\n</u> <u>5.4.2. CURRENT LIMIT ORDER TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.5. FX BROKER NEWS and MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE FINAL SHOT:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #FREE NEWSLETTER\r\nDATE: 17th February 2018','I THINK OIL IS ABOUT TO HEAD MUCH LOWER ONCE AGAIN','','inherit','closed','closed','','11005-revision-v1','','','2018-02-17 10:08:37','2018-02-17 15:08:37','',11005,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/11005-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(11065,1,'2018-03-01 16:14:55','2018-03-01 21:14:55','','PREMIUM SERVICE PERF. JAN-FEB 2018','','inherit','open','closed','','premium-service-perf-jan-feb-2018','','','2018-03-01 17:38:17','2018-03-01 22:38:17','',11066,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/PREMIUM-SERVICE-PERF.-JAN-FEB-2018.jpg',0,'attachment','image/jpeg',0),(11009,1,'2018-02-23 17:13:41','2018-02-23 22:13:41','','ECON DATA 24022018','','inherit','open','closed','','econ-data-24022018','','','2018-02-23 17:23:13','2018-02-23 22:23:13','',11021,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/ECON-DATA-24022018.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(11010,1,'2018-02-23 17:13:51','2018-02-23 22:13:51','','TCHART 24022018','','inherit','open','closed','','tchart-24022018','','','2018-02-23 17:20:52','2018-02-23 22:20:52','',11021,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/TCHART-24022018.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(11011,1,'2018-02-23 17:13:58','2018-02-23 22:13:58','','SENTIMENT 24022018','','inherit','open','closed','','sentiment-24022018','','','2018-02-23 17:22:50','2018-02-23 22:22:50','',11021,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/SENTIMENT-24022018.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(11012,1,'2018-02-23 17:14:03','2018-02-23 22:14:03','','LIMIT 24022018','','inherit','open','closed','','limit-24022018','','','2018-02-23 17:25:01','2018-02-23 22:25:01','',11021,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/LIMIT-24022018.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(11013,1,'2018-02-23 17:14:07','2018-02-23 22:14:07','','LIVE 24022018','','inherit','open','closed','','live-24022018','','','2018-02-23 17:24:46','2018-02-23 22:24:46','',11021,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/LIVE-24022018.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(11014,1,'2018-02-23 17:14:13','2018-02-23 22:14:13','','PS SUMMARY 24022018','','inherit','open','closed','','ps-summary-24022018','','','2018-02-23 17:21:23','2018-02-23 22:21:23','',11021,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/PS-SUMMARY-24022018.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(11015,1,'2018-02-23 17:14:18','2018-02-23 22:14:18','','FLASH 24022018','','inherit','open','closed','','flash-24022018','','','2018-02-23 17:35:17','2018-02-23 22:35:17','',2711,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/FLASH-24022018.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(11016,1,'2018-02-23 17:14:23','2018-02-23 22:14:23','','RADAR 24022018','','inherit','open','closed','','radar-24022018','','','2018-02-23 17:35:56','2018-02-23 22:35:56','',2524,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/RADAR-24022018.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(11017,1,'2018-02-23 17:14:31','2018-02-23 22:14:31','','MOMENTUM 24022018','','inherit','open','closed','','momentum-24022018','','','2018-02-23 17:38:41','2018-02-23 22:38:41','',10540,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/MOMENTUM-24022018.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(11018,1,'2018-02-23 17:14:35','2018-02-23 22:14:35','','FUN 24022018','','inherit','open','closed','','fun-24022018','','','2018-02-23 17:39:27','2018-02-23 22:39:27','',3106,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/FUN-24022018.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(11019,1,'2018-02-23 17:14:45','2018-02-23 22:14:45','','POS1 24022018','','inherit','open','closed','','pos1-24022018','','','2018-02-23 17:40:06','2018-02-23 22:40:06','',6965,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/POS1-24022018.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(11020,1,'2018-02-23 17:14:49','2018-02-23 22:14:49','','POS2 24022018','','inherit','open','closed','','pos2-24022018','','','2018-02-23 17:40:17','2018-02-23 22:40:17','',6965,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/POS2-24022018.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(11021,1,'2018-02-24 06:06:07','2018-02-24 11:06:07','&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE FIRST SHOT:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nAnother week has just flown by once again.\r\n\r\nI am banking $$$ and pips as I go along although my brokers containing my POSITION TRADES are just mainly a sea of red. Every now and then I bank pips, in fact, this month I have +1,115 pips from POSITION trades alone but the broker accounts never seem to move! My shorter-term trades are far more fluid, with just over +1,000 pips emanating from shorter-term trading so far this month. It looks as though February 2018 could be a record month. I thought that last year’s +1,420 pips was a great total but providing nothing stupid happens this February will be the best since 2014, which was the PREMIUM SERVICE inaugural year.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nMost of the focus recently has been on US10year Treasury Yields as they approach 3%.\r\n\r\nIt appears to me that the only subject that is consistent across all the G10 major Central Banks at the moment is INFLATION. It used to be DEFLATION that was the primary focus, but Central Bank Presidents and Governors couldn’t say that word without squeezing their buttocks together, so they created the word DIS-INFLATION instead. Since the US 10YRTreasury 3% level became a reality, INFLATION is mentioned soooooo many times now!\r\n\r\nFrom a trading perspective at least, we know more than ever what data attracts more policy attention and focus.\r\n\r\nHowever, we had the FOMC minutes from Yellen’s last meeting published last Wednesday. What a farce that was. A massive spike in stocks and drop in DXY to be completely reversed and “some more” all in 3 hours. Just some crazy movements in prices. I just love the TV anchors / analysts trying to find a logical reason behind a complete reversal switch in market sentiment. Sometimes it is just impossible to know why. I am now more often than not sidelined at these bigger “market moving” news events: - FOMC, NFP, ECB Press Conferences and BOE Super Thursday’s. I no longer see the point of trading these events they are often just knee-jerk moves and to trade to make 20 pip moves is just NOT my bag at all. Having said that at times beggars can’t be choosers!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong> MARKET OVERVIEW – MY THOUGHTS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>CALM BEFORE THE STORM?</strong></span></p>\r\nI sense an unease with market sentiment… God I’m good at this!\r\n\r\nNo matter what you trade, BONDS, STOCKS, FUTURES, COMMODITIES or FOREX every morning regardless of your location on this planet you must get the “I wonder is this going to be the day” thoughts going through your head.\r\n\r\nI only trade Forex, I am just NOT interested in anything else to trade although from next year, I may add trading indices to my trade portfolio, but that is as good as my “what happens if’s” that I post to twitter most mornings to my PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers, it may not happen for any number of reasons.\r\n\r\nWe are in volatile trading times at the moment. A little bit of background.\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>The USD index (DXY) is presently bouncing off recent lows of 88.15 trying to establish a base and work its way back above rent short term highs of 90.45. If it does NOT surpass this level, I will be calling the bounce off 83.15 a dead cat bounce.</li>\r\n 	<li>THE SPX is off its recent highs of 2,728.75 following the recent crash in prices. It hit an intra-day low of 2,706.25 and it is trying to use this level as a base from which to attempt to regain lost ground.</li>\r\n 	<li>Given that we now have inflation into the US economy, the traditional flight to safety of GOLD has been flexing its muscles. It has been in a range from lows of $1,309.00 to highs of $1,370.50 per ounce for the past 3-4 weeks.</li>\r\n 	<li>US Treasuries 10 Year Bond Yield. This has been the subject of much speculation because of the recent equity markets crash. The yield has been drifting higher for quite some time, ignored by equity traders. At the time of the last Non-Farm payrolls print, which included the mark-up in Average Hourly wages deemed to be the reason for the crash the yield spikes to 2.88%. Since NFP day it has been as high as 2.95%... 3% is looming!Higher U.S. interest rates from the FED on the horizon caused treasury yields to react higher.\r\n\r\nBond yields are sensitive to inflation and there is also a relationship between the US 10 year note and the USD/JPY.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNow, I could spend hours on this subject. I do not want to do that because it’s boring, my point that I want to make is that everything, regardless of market is linked one way or another. It is the classic DOMINO EFFECT.\r\n\r\nA couple of years ago I wrote a blog titled THE DOMINO EFFECT and, in my opinion, we are here again. The penny may have finally dropped with equity traders that interest rates are going to rise and instead of burying their heads in the sand, they make a more professional approach.\r\n\r\nI think that it would be fair to say that the FX market reaction has in the main been fairly muted. The EUR/USD has not been running up and down the charts like a headless chicken, it has been very placid. The USD/JPY has been flexing but no way near as much as I had thought it may have given the situation.\r\n\r\nIf this current market revision in sentiment, was a party, I would say that the BOND and COMMODITY traders arrived first, followed quickly by the FUTURES traders then by the FX traders and what seems to be the case on every occasion the EQUITY traders are last to arrive. The penny needs to drop with a loud bang for the message to register.\r\n\r\nThe FOMC minutes release last week was a classic case in point. On a quick scanned glance, I thought that the minutes looked confirming, to me it was HAWKISH. I was astonished when the USD was sold off. I covered positions and took limit orders off the table, only for about 60 minutes after being released the USD started to spike as the reality of the content of the minutes was interpreted accurately. The USD losses were more than wiped out with gains into the close.\r\n\r\nWe have markets that are having problems adjusting. The BUY THE DIP approach is just NOT going to work in a two-way market which finally looks like it’s going to be on the cards once again.\r\n\r\nBut it’s not going to be that simple.\r\n\r\nWe have an administration in D.C. that really does NOT want a strong USD, which, seems to be a hand in glove partner to the T-Bill moves, the stock market moves, and the commodity price moves that will be on the cards with inflation and a cycle of increasing interest rates in the pipeline.\r\n\r\nThis creates uncertainty, which in turn will fuel volatility.\r\n\r\nI am a believer in correlations; correlations do matter whether they are inside one market or an inter-market correlation. These are fundamental to the DOMINO EFFECT.\r\n\r\nIt’s complicated but trying to keep it simple. USD (DXY), US Treasuries, GOLD, OIL, USD/JPY, the VIX and the SPX all have a correlated inter-woven part to play to moving forward. Right now, there is an element of doing their own thing. The SPX is no longer reacting the 10 Year Yields, OIL and the USD not in sync, USD and GOLD not quite there.\r\n\r\nThe upshot is that at the moment we have a CALM… a CALM BEFORE THE STORM. It is inevitable that a reaction is going to take place. The mini crash of a couple of weeks ago saw price movements in chunks at a time so fierce was the volatility. It will happen again.\r\n\r\nWhen and what will be the trigger?\r\n\r\nThe $64,000 question.\r\n\r\nRight now, I would say if treasury yields cross 3% it could be a strong catalyst. But it could as easily be something else like a collapse in OIL prices.\r\n\r\nHowever, this week we have the new FED Chair, Jerome Powell delivering the FED Monetary Policy Report (Humphrey-Hawkins testimony) to congress this coming Tuesday. If he delivers a very interpreted HAWKISH view of the U.S. economy, it is possible that this could be the catalyst to set the DOMINO EFFECT in play.\r\n\r\nHowever, …\r\n\r\nThere are so many “If’s and buts”. I think the phrase is “If ifs and buts were candy and nuts we’d all have a happy Christmas”. This STORM will happen long before Christmas this year, I think that I am safe in announcing that!\r\n\r\nAll we can do is sit in front of our screens each morning, go through our startup routines and ask the question… “Is today going to be the day” and get prepared. With every day that passes without reaction the big day looms closer!\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>USD SUPPORT and RESISTANCE with my BIAS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/TCHART-24022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-11010\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/TCHART-24022018-1024x891.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"891\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE PREMIUM SERVICE TRADING SUMMARY:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><u>PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:\r\n</u>(Incorporating the last 5 PREMIUM SERVICE TRADES)</span>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/PS-SUMMARY-24022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-11014\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/PS-SUMMARY-24022018-1024x852.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"852\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nYou can get on board and join from as little as CAD$150.00 per month, conversions are roughly as follows: -\r\n\r\nGBP £90 per month\r\nEUR €100 per month\r\nUSD $120 per month\r\nJPY 12,700 per month\r\nAUD $150 per month\r\n\r\nThis represents a great value way to subscribe…  and a great RISK / REWARD!\r\n\r\nYou can subscribe for periods as well. Go to my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> for more details under the TAB – “SUBSCRIBE HERE”.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(This section is for PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS ONLY)\r\n\r\n<u>5.1. TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\nI am having a great spell at the screens at the moment. I make some fuck ups from time to time, but they are more than compensated for the better trades that are taken.\r\n\r\nIt is however, a challenging, annoying and at times a pain in the arse market to trade inside at times.\r\n\r\nQuite hilarious really that the JPY should be proving to be “my go to trade” at the moment. I thought initially that the BOJ was changing policy and that the JPY would become the “FREEBIE BONUS TRADE” of 2018. That idea quickly fell on stony ground, but the US10 YR T-BILL and US inflation chatter has brought the JPY back into vogue for me!\r\n\r\nThe cross-rates continue to remain rangy. Only the CAD crosses appear lively, although the AUD is springing to life of late as the RISK OFF / RISK ON trade starts to re-appear. Although, the EUR/AUD needs to break 1.5850 to get its mojo going. For now, 1.5800 is difficult to pass, which is frustrating. I think I could have taken 70 pips profit 4 times already based on the rejections I have seen with EUR/AUD (FUN847). That trade has been live since 5<sup>th</sup> February, when I first saw the opportunity.\r\n\r\nWith Powell’s Humphrey-Hawkins testimony scheduled for this coming week, I am going to chop away lots of trades as I expect fireworks and God knows how the market will react.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.2. SENTIMENT,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:\r\n</u>\r\n\r\nNo change in my FUNDAMENTAL / MACRO THOUGHTS for 2018.\r\n\r\nI am still bearish the NZD and CAD (albeit I am not trading it yet)\r\n\r\nI am still bullish the GBP (even though I know that I could get a 100-200 pip on BREXIT data). For now, I am happy to trade GBP crosses.\r\n\r\nI am also bullish the EUR, but I really need further clarity on ECB policy and the USD fragility concerns me to get heavy on USD related pairs. Very similar to GBP, I will look to continue to trade the EUR cross rates.\r\n\r\nI am sitting on the fence with the AUD, CHF and JPY based on the longer-term (over 6 months view), I just don\'t know, there are too many imponderables.\r\n\r\nFinally, the USD. After Powell’s testimony this week it might be clearer what his opinion is of the U.S. economy and it will be great to get an idea of his forward guidance. In theory, it should be the easiest trade on the planet, but with the TRUMP administration being currency manipulators and frankly a liability to the U.S. economy it is as clear as fecking mud!\r\n\r\nEven with clarity from the FED, you just know TRUMP will undermine the FED if he decides to, which makes the USD hard to trade.\r\n\r\nDespite all my economic background and MACRO views I think that we could see a momentous USD squeeze after Powell followed by the biggest sell-off in the USD in history. We could rise to (DXY) 94.00 and pullback to 80.00 in a couple of weeks or so. I find this so hard to reason out strategically without having the TRUMP EFFECT enter my thoughts.\r\n\r\nThe commodity currencies have their own thing, but the rest are so tied to US policy one way or another, I find myself looking at cross rate and JPY charts more so than USD charts.\r\n\r\nAs Prince would have sang “It’s a Sign ‘o the Times”.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/SENTIMENT-24022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-11011\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/SENTIMENT-24022018-782x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"782\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3. THE WEEK AHEAD:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.1. ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES THAT INTEREST ME:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/ECON-DATA-24022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-11009\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/ECON-DATA-24022018-1024x905.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"905\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.2. MY KEY EVENTS ON THIS WEEK’S CALENDAR AND WHY:</u>\r\n\r\nThere are only two events that have my attention this week.\r\n\r\n<u>USD – JEROME POWELL – HUMPHREY-HAWKINS TESTIMONY:</u>\r\n\r\nProbably, what one would call a “Baptism by Fire”.\r\n\r\nIt must be bad enough working for TRUMP, never mind having to deliver a key introduction about US Monetary Policy looking forward, and, then having to answer a series of statements, NOT questions from congressional senators who couldn’t manage their way out of a paper bag, who additionally, can be found in the corridors of DC sitting at coffee tables staring at orange juice cartons because it’s says “concentrate”.\r\n\r\nI think at Janet Yellen’s last HH testimony last July I counted about 5 or 6 actual questions. The rest almost ran out time stating their position, never being able to ask a question…. Just a complete farce.\r\n\r\nNever mind all of that….\r\n\r\nPowell could shake out the markets within 5 minutes of starting to read his prepared statement. I will have to check is it pre-released a few hours earlier? This will be vital re: the market reaction and open trades.\r\n\r\nI will 99%, NOT trade this event but just manage LIVE trades.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\nGBP – THERESA MAY - OVERVIEW OF THE UK POST BREXIT SPEECH:</u>\r\n\r\nThe BREXIT calamity rolls on with yet another Theresa May speech stating the UK position post BREXIT.\r\n\r\nFrankly, if this speech does NOT lay it out 100%, I will be pulling out my hair…oh wait can’t do that I shaved my head. I suppose banging my head off the desk will just have to do.\r\n\r\nWe are slowly but surely getting to what the markets determine to be a HARD BREXIT. In my eyes as you are aware there has always been nothing other than a HARD BREXIT. I never really understood the need or reasoning to say SOFT BREXIT.\r\n\r\nThe facts are the same now as they were in 2016.\r\n\r\nTo avoid an EU contagion the UK will get it shoved up them like a red-hot poker up the bottom by the EU. An example will be made. No special deals, no friends with benefits deals on the side. Pure and simple a costly and difficult exercise with the EU pulling all the strings.\r\n\r\nI can see a scenario where the UK just walks away with two fingers in the air pointing towards Brussels and Frankfurt.\r\n\r\nIt has to be one hell of a speech to remove uncertainties and give clarity. Well, I for one will not be holding my breath waiting for that!!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.3. HOW I WILL APPROACH and TRADE THE MARKET THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\nI said this last week and added 559 pips! But this coming week I will be quieter than usual on both the morning updates and trade set ups.\r\n\r\nUntil the Jerome Powell testimony, I doubt I will trade unless something spectacular draws me in. After he delivers I may feel more inclined and look to add.\r\n\r\nI really want to focus on NZD and JPY trades this week. I will hold existing GBP trades where possible, I have my GBP limit orders in place to capture large downside moves.\r\n\r\nBasically, the news events this week are huge and to pre-trade them unless for very short-term trades would be crazy. I expect the markets to be range bound on Monday.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>5.3.4. MY “MACRO” TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEK AHEAD:</u>\r\n\r\nMy action plan for the week is lighter than usual for obvious reasons: -\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>Add NZD trades when appropriate.\r\nI want to add back NZD/USD and NZD/JPY trades.</li>\r\n 	<li>Add JPY trades when appropriate.\r\nLooking to add USD/JPY, CAD/JPY, AUD/JPY and possibly EUR/JPY but this pair is NOT flavour of the month for me at the moment.</li>\r\n 	<li>Maintain existing positions (if possible) with GBP trades.\r\nI will be looking to add GBP/AUD and GBP/CAD trades if possible.</li>\r\n 	<li>Formulate a strategy re: EUR long and CAD short trades.\r\nSeveral cross rates that interest me have already been stated.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nPLEASE NOTE:\r\n\r\nA great deal depends on the market reactions this week as to how busy I will be in the market with trades and trade set ups.\r\n<u>5.4. CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.4.1. CURRENT LIVE TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/LIVE-24022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-11013\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/LIVE-24022018-1024x987.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"987\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u>5.4.2. CURRENT LIMIT ORDER TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/LIMIT-24022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-11012\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/LIMIT-24022018-1024x758.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"758\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u>5.6. FX BROKER NEWS and MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\nNothing to report this week. All very quiet on the broker front apart from the continued explosion into trading “Crypto” currencies.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE FINAL SHOT:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @ThePremService\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #167 PREMIUM SERVICE\r\nDATE: 24th February 2018','CALM BEFORE THE STORM?','','publish','open','closed','','calm-before-the-storm','','','2018-02-24 06:06:07','2018-02-24 11:06:07','',0,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?post_type=member_posts&#038;p=11021',0,'member_posts','',0),(11022,1,'2018-02-23 17:26:24','2018-02-23 22:26:24','&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE FIRST SHOT:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nAnother week has just flown by once again.\r\n\r\nI am banking $$$ and pips as I go along although my brokers containing my POSITION TRADES are just mainly a sea of red. Every now and then I bank pips, in fact, this month I have +1,115 pips from POSITION trades alone but the broker accounts never seem to move! My shorter-term trades are far more fluid, with just over +1,000 pips emanating from shorter-term trading so far this month. It looks as though February 2018 could be a record month. I thought that last year’s +1,420 pips was a great total but providing nothing stupid happens this February will be the best since 2014, which was the PREMIUM SERVICE inaugural year.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nMost of the focus recently has been on US10year Treasury Yields as they approach 3%.\r\n\r\nIt appears to me that the only subject that is consistent across all the G10 major Central Banks at the moment is INFLATION. It used to be DEFLATION that was the primary focus, but Central Bank Presidents and Governors couldn’t say that word without squeezing their buttocks together, so they created the word DIS-INFLATION instead. Since the US 10YRTreasury 3% level became a reality, INFLATION is mentioned soooooo many times now!\r\n\r\nFrom a trading perspective at least, we know more than ever what data attracts more policy attention and focus.\r\n\r\nHowever, we had the FOMC minutes from Yellen’s last meeting published last Wednesday. What a farce that was. A massive spike in stocks and drop in DXY to be completely reversed and “some more” all in 3 hours. Just some crazy movements in prices. I just love the TV anchors / analysts trying to find a logical reason behind a complete reversal switch in market sentiment. Sometimes it is just impossible to know why. I am now more often than not sidelined at these bigger “market moving” news events: - FOMC, NFP, ECB Press Conferences and BOE Super Thursday’s. I no longer see the point of trading these events they are often just knee-jerk moves and to trade to make 20 pip moves is just NOT my bag at all. Having said that at times beggars can’t be choosers!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong> MARKET OVERVIEW – MY THOUGHTS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>CALM BEFORE THE STORM?</strong></span></p>\r\nI sense an unease with market sentiment… God I’m good at this!\r\n\r\nNo matter what you trade, BONDS, STOCKS, FUTURES, COMMODITIES or FOREX every morning regardless of your location on this planet you must get the “I wonder is this going to be the day” thoughts going through your head.\r\n\r\nI only trade Forex, I am just NOT interested in anything else to trade although from next year, I may add trading indices to my trade portfolio, but that is as good as my “what happens if’s” that I post to twitter most mornings to my PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers, it may not happen for any number of reasons.\r\n\r\nWe are in volatile trading times at the moment. A little bit of background.\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>The USD index (DXY) is presently bouncing off recent lows of 88.15 trying to establish a base and work its way back above rent short term highs of 90.45. If it does NOT surpass this level, I will be calling the bounce off 83.15 a dead cat bounce.</li>\r\n 	<li>THE SPX is off its recent highs of 2,728.75 following the recent crash in prices. It hit an intra-day low of 2,706.25 and it is trying to use this level as a base from which to attempt to regain lost ground.</li>\r\n 	<li>Given that we now have inflation into the US economy, the traditional flight to safety of GOLD has been flexing its muscles. It has been in a range from lows of $1,309.00 to highs of $1,370.50 per ounce for the past 3-4 weeks.</li>\r\n 	<li>US Treasuries 10 Year Bond Yield. This has been the subject of much speculation because of the recent equity markets crash. The yield has been drifting higher for quite some time, ignored by equity traders. At the time of the last Non-Farm payrolls print, which included the mark-up in Average Hourly wages deemed to be the reason for the crash the yield spikes to 2.88%. Since NFP day it has been as high as 2.95%... 3% is looming!\r\n\r\nHigher U.S. interest rates from the FED on the horizon caused treasury yields to react higher.\r\n\r\nBond yields are sensitive to inflation and there is also a relationship between the US 10 year note and the USD/JPY.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNow, I could spend hours on this subject. I do not want to do that because it’s boring, my point that I want to make is that everything, regardless of market is linked one way or another. It is the classic DOMINO EFFECT.\r\n\r\nA couple of years ago I wrote a blog titled THE DOMINO EFFECT and, in my opinion, we are here again. The penny may have finally dropped with equity traders that interest rates are going to rise and instead of burying their heads in the sand, they make a more professional approach.\r\n\r\nI think that it would be fair to say that the FX market reaction has in the main been fairly muted. The EUR/USD has not been running up and down the charts like a headless chicken, it has been very placid. The USD/JPY has been flexing but no way near as much as I had thought it may have given the situation.\r\n\r\nIf this current market revision in sentiment, was a party, I would say that the BOND and COMMODITY traders arrived first, followed quickly by the FUTURES traders then by the FX traders and what seems to be the case on every occasion the EQUITY traders are last to arrive. The penny needs to drop with a loud bang for the message to register.\r\n\r\nThe FOMC minutes release last week was a classic case in point. On a quick scanned glance, I thought that the minutes looked confirming, to me it was HAWKISH. I was astonished when the USD was sold off. I covered positions and took limit orders off the table, only for about 60 minutes after being released the USD started to spike as the reality of the content of the minutes was interpreted accurately. The USD losses were more than wiped out with gains into the close.\r\n\r\nWe have markets that are having problems adjusting. The BUY THE DIP approach is just NOT going to work in a two-way market which finally looks like it’s going to be on the cards once again.\r\n\r\nBut it’s not going to be that simple.\r\n\r\nWe have an administration in D.C. that really does NOT want a strong USD, which, seems to be a hand in glove partner to the T-Bill moves, the stock market moves, and the commodity price moves that will be on the cards with inflation and a cycle of increasing interest rates in the pipeline.\r\n\r\nThis creates uncertainty, which in turn will fuel volatility.\r\n\r\nI am a believer in correlations; correlations do matter whether they are inside one market or an inter-market correlation. These are fundamental to the DOMINO EFFECT.\r\n\r\nIt’s complicated but trying to keep it simple. USD (DXY), US Treasuries, GOLD, OIL, USD/JPY, the VIX and the SPX all have a correlated inter-woven part to play to moving forward. Right now, there is an element of doing their own thing. The SPX is no longer reacting the 10 Year Yields, OIL and the USD not in sync, USD and GOLD not quite there.\r\n\r\nThe upshot is that at the moment we have a CALM… a CALM BEFORE THE STORM. It is inevitable that a reaction is going to take place. The mini crash of a couple of weeks ago saw price movements in chunks at a time so fierce was the volatility. It will happen again.\r\n\r\nWhen and what will be the trigger?\r\n\r\nThe $64,000 question.\r\n\r\nRight now, I would say if treasury yields cross 3% it could be a strong catalyst. But it could as easily be something else like a collapse in OIL prices.\r\n\r\nHowever, this week we have the new FED Chair, Jerome Powell delivering the FED Monetary Policy Report (Humphrey-Hawkins testimony) to congress this coming Tuesday. If he delivers a very interpreted HAWKISH view of the U.S. economy, it is possible that this could be the catalyst to set the DOMINO EFFECT in play.\r\n\r\nHowever, …\r\n\r\nThere are so many “If’s and buts”. I think the phrase is “If ifs and buts were candy and nuts we’d all have a happy Christmas”. This STORM will happen long before Christmas this year, I think that I am safe in announcing that!\r\n\r\nAll we can do is sit in front of our screens each morning, go through our startup routines and ask the question… “Is today going to be the day” and get prepared. With every day that passes without reaction the big day looms closer!\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>USD SUPPORT and RESISTANCE with my BIAS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/TCHART-24022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-11010\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/TCHART-24022018-1024x891.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"891\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE PREMIUM SERVICE TRADING SUMMARY:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><u>PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:\r\n</u>(Incorporating the last 5 PREMIUM SERVICE TRADES)</span>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/PS-SUMMARY-24022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-11014\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/PS-SUMMARY-24022018-1024x852.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"852\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nYou can get on board and join from as little as CAD$150.00 per month, conversions are roughly as follows: -\r\n\r\nGBP £90 per month\r\nEUR €100 per month\r\nUSD $120 per month\r\nJPY 12,700 per month\r\nAUD $150 per month\r\n\r\nThis represents a great value way to subscribe…  and a great RISK / REWARD!\r\n\r\nYou can subscribe for periods as well. Go to my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> for more details under the TAB – “SUBSCRIBE HERE”.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(This section is for PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS ONLY)\r\n\r\n<u>5.1. TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\nI am having a great spell at the screens at the moment. I make some fuck ups from time to time, but they are more than compensated for the better trades that are taken.\r\n\r\nIt is however, a challenging, annoying and at times a pain in the arse market to trade inside at times.\r\n\r\nQuite hilarious really that the JPY should be proving to be “my go to trade” at the moment. I thought initially that the BOJ was changing policy and that the JPY would become the “FREEBIE BONUS TRADE” of 2018. That idea quickly fell on stony ground, but the US10 YR T-BILL and US inflation chatter has brought the JPY back into vogue for me!\r\n\r\nThe cross-rates continue to remain rangy. Only the CAD crosses appear lively, although the AUD is springing to life of late as the RISK OFF / RISK ON trade starts to re-appear. Although, the EUR/AUD needs to break 1.5850 to get its mojo going. For now, 1.5800 is difficult to pass, which is frustrating. I think I could have taken 70 pips profit 4 times already based on the rejections I have seen with EUR/AUD (FUN847). That trade has been live since 5<sup>th</sup> February, when I first saw the opportunity.\r\n\r\nWith Powell’s Humphrey-Hawkins testimony scheduled for this coming week, I am going to chop away lots of trades as I expect fireworks and God knows how the market will react.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.2. SENTIMENT,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:\r\n</u>\r\n\r\nNo change in my FUNDAMENTAL / MACRO THOUGHTS for 2018.\r\n\r\nI am still bearish the NZD and CAD (albeit I am not trading it yet)\r\n\r\nI am still bullish the GBP (even though I know that I could get a 100-200 pip on BREXIT data). For now, I am happy to trade GBP crosses.\r\n\r\nI am also bullish the EUR, but I really need further clarity on ECB policy and the USD fragility concerns me to get heavy on USD related pairs. Very similar to GBP, I will look to continue to trade the EUR cross rates.\r\n\r\nI am sitting on the fence with the AUD, CHF and JPY based on the longer-term (over 6 months view), I just don\'t know, there are too many imponderables.\r\n\r\nFinally, the USD. After Powell’s testimony this week it might be clearer what his opinion is of the U.S. economy and it will be great to get an idea of his forward guidance. In theory, it should be the easiest trade on the planet, but with the TRUMP administration being currency manipulators and frankly a liability to the U.S. economy it is as clear as fecking mud!\r\n\r\nEven with clarity from the FED, you just know TRUMP will undermine the FED if he decides to, which makes the USD hard to trade.\r\n\r\nDespite all my economic background and MACRO views I think that we could see a momentous USD squeeze after Powell followed by the biggest sell-off in the USD in history. We could rise to (DXY) 94.00 and pullback to 80.00 in a couple of weeks or so. I find this so hard to reason out strategically without having the TRUMP EFFECT enter my thoughts.\r\n\r\nThe commodity currencies have their own thing, but the rest are so tied to US policy one way or another, I find myself looking at cross rate and JPY charts more so than USD charts.\r\n\r\nAs Prince would have sang “It’s a Sign ‘o the Times”.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/SENTIMENT-24022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-11011\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/SENTIMENT-24022018-782x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"782\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3. THE WEEK AHEAD:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.1. ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES THAT INTEREST ME:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/ECON-DATA-24022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-11009\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/ECON-DATA-24022018-1024x905.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"905\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.2. MY KEY EVENTS ON THIS WEEK’S CALENDAR AND WHY:</u>\r\n\r\nThere are only two events that have my attention this week.\r\n\r\n<u>USD – JEROME POWELL – HUMPHREY-HAWKINS TESTIMONY:</u>\r\n\r\nProbably, what one would call a “Baptism by Fire”.\r\n\r\nIt must be bad enough working for TRUMP, never mind having to deliver a key introduction about US Monetary Policy looking forward, and, then having to answer a series of statements, NOT questions from congressional senators who couldn’t manage their way out of a paper bag, who additionally, can be found in the corridors of DC sitting at coffee tables staring at orange juice cartons because it’s says “concentrate”.\r\n\r\nI think at Janet Yellen’s last HH testimony last July I counted about 5 or 6 actual questions. The rest almost ran out time stating their position, never being able to ask a question…. Just a complete farce.\r\n\r\nNever mind all of that….\r\n\r\nPowell could shake out the markets within 5 minutes of starting to read his prepared statement. I will have to check is it pre-released a few hours earlier? This will be vital re: the market reaction and open trades.\r\n\r\nI will 99%, NOT trade this event but just manage LIVE trades.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\nGBP – THERESA MAY - OVERVIEW OF THE UK POST BREXIT SPEECH:</u>\r\n\r\nThe BREXIT calamity rolls on with yet another Theresa May speech stating the UK position post BREXIT.\r\n\r\nFrankly, if this speech does NOT lay it out 100%, I will be pulling out my hair…oh wait can’t do that I shaved my head. I suppose banging my head off the desk will just have to do.\r\n\r\nWe are slowly but surely getting to what the markets determine to be a HARD BREXIT. In my eyes as you are aware there has always been nothing other than a HARD BREXIT. I never really understood the need or reasoning to say SOFT BREXIT.\r\n\r\nThe facts are the same now as they were in 2016.\r\n\r\nTo avoid an EU contagion the UK will get it shoved up them like a red-hot poker up the bottom by the EU. An example will be made. No special deals, no friends with benefits deals on the side. Pure and simple a costly and difficult exercise with the EU pulling all the strings.\r\n\r\nI can see a scenario where the UK just walks away with two fingers in the air pointing towards Brussels and Frankfurt.\r\n\r\nIt has to be one hell of a speech to remove uncertainties and give clarity. Well, I for one will not be holding my breath waiting for that!!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.3. HOW I WILL APPROACH and TRADE THE MARKET THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\nI said this last week and added 559 pips! But this coming week I will be quieter than usual on both the morning updates and trade set ups.\r\n\r\nUntil the Jerome Powell testimony, I doubt I will trade unless something spectacular draws me in. After he delivers I may feel more inclined and look to add.\r\n\r\nI really want to focus on NZD and JPY trades this week. I will hold existing GBP trades where possible, I have my GBP limit orders in place to capture large downside moves.\r\n\r\nBasically, the news events this week are huge and to pre-trade them unless for very short-term trades would be crazy. I expect the markets to be range bound on Monday.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>5.3.4. MY “MACRO” TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEK AHEAD:</u>\r\n\r\nMy action plan for the week is lighter than usual for obvious reasons: -\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>Add NZD trades when appropriate.\r\nI want to add back NZD/USD and NZD/JPY trades.</li>\r\n 	<li>Add JPY trades when appropriate.\r\nLooking to add USD/JPY, CAD/JPY, AUD/JPY and possibly EUR/JPY but this pair is NOT flavour of the month for me at the moment.</li>\r\n 	<li>Maintain existing positions (if possible) with GBP trades.\r\nI will be looking to add GBP/AUD and GBP/CAD trades if possible.</li>\r\n 	<li>Formulate a strategy re: EUR long and CAD short trades.\r\nSeveral cross rates that interest me have already been stated.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nPLEASE NOTE:\r\n\r\nA great deal depends on the market reactions this week as to how busy I will be in the market with trades and trade set ups.\r\n<u>5.4. CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.4.1. CURRENT LIVE TRADES:\r\n\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/LIVE-24022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-11013\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/LIVE-24022018-1024x987.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"987\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u>5.4.2. CURRENT LIMIT ORDER TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/LIMIT-24022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-11012\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/LIMIT-24022018-1024x758.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"758\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u>5.6. FX BROKER NEWS and MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\nNothing to report this week. All very quiet on the broker front apart from the continued explosion into trading “Crypto” currencies.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE FINAL SHOT:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @ThePremService\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #167 PREMIUM SERVICE\r\nDATE: 24th February 2018','CALM BEFORE THE STORM?','','inherit','closed','closed','','11021-revision-v1','','','2018-02-23 17:26:24','2018-02-23 22:26:24','',11021,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/11021-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(11023,1,'2018-02-24 06:16:03','2018-02-24 11:16:03','&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE FIRST SHOT:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nAnother week has just flown by once again.\r\n\r\nI am banking $$$ and pips as I go along although my brokers containing my POSITION TRADES are just mainly a sea of red. Every now and then I bank pips, in fact, this month I have +1,115 pips from POSITION trades alone but the broker accounts never seem to move! My shorter-term trades are far more fluid, with just over +1,000 pips emanating from shorter-term trading so far this month. It looks as though February 2018 could be a record month. I thought that last year’s +1,420 pips was a great total but providing nothing stupid happens this February will be the best since 2014, which was the PREMIUM SERVICE inaugural year.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nMost of the focus recently has been on US10year Treasury Yields as they approach 3%.\r\n\r\nIt appears to me that the only subject that is consistent across all the G10 major Central Banks at the moment is INFLATION. It used to be DEFLATION that was the primary focus, but Central Bank Presidents and Governors couldn’t say that word without squeezing their buttocks together, so they created the word DIS-INFLATION instead. Since the US 10YRTreasury 3% level became a reality, INFLATION is mentioned soooooo many times now!\r\n\r\nFrom a trading perspective at least, we know more than ever what data attracts more policy attention and focus.\r\n\r\nHowever, we had the FOMC minutes from Yellen’s last meeting published last Wednesday. What a farce that was. A massive spike in stocks and drop in DXY to be completely reversed and “some more” all in 3 hours. Just some crazy movements in prices. I just love the TV anchors / analysts trying to find a logical reason behind a complete reversal switch in market sentiment. Sometimes it is just impossible to know why. I am now more often than not sidelined at these bigger “market moving” news events: - FOMC, NFP, ECB Press Conferences and BOE Super Thursday’s. I no longer see the point of trading these events they are often just knee-jerk moves and to trade to make 20 pip moves is just NOT my bag at all. Having said that at times beggars can’t be choosers!\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong> MARKET OVERVIEW – MY THOUGHTS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>CALM BEFORE THE STORM?</strong></span></p>\r\nI sense an unease with market sentiment… God I’m good at this!\r\n\r\nNo matter what you trade, BONDS, STOCKS, FUTURES, COMMODITIES or FOREX every morning regardless of your location on this planet you must get the “I wonder is this going to be the day” thoughts going through your head.\r\n\r\nI only trade Forex, I am just NOT interested in anything else to trade although from next year, I may add trading indices to my trade portfolio, but that is as good as my “what happens if’s” that I post to twitter most mornings to my PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers, it may not happen for any number of reasons.\r\n\r\nWe are in volatile trading times at the moment. A little bit of background.\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>The USD index (DXY) is presently bouncing off recent lows of 88.15 trying to establish a base and work its way back above rent short term highs of 90.45. If it does NOT surpass this level, I will be calling the bounce off 83.15 a dead cat bounce.</li>\r\n 	<li>THE SPX is off its recent highs of 2,728.75 following the recent crash in prices. It hit an intra-day low of 2,706.25 and it is trying to use this level as a base from which to attempt to regain lost ground.</li>\r\n 	<li>Given that we now have inflation into the US economy, the traditional flight to safety of GOLD has been flexing its muscles. It has been in a range from lows of $1,309.00 to highs of $1,370.50 per ounce for the past 3-4 weeks.</li>\r\n 	<li>US Treasuries 10 Year Bond Yield. This has been the subject of much speculation because of the recent equity markets crash. The yield has been drifting higher for quite some time, ignored by equity traders. At the time of the last Non-Farm payrolls print, which included the mark-up in Average Hourly wages deemed to be the reason for the crash the yield spikes to 2.88%. Since NFP day it has been as high as 2.95%... 3% is looming!Higher U.S. interest rates from the FED on the horizon caused treasury yields to react higher.\r\n\r\nBond yields are sensitive to inflation and there is also a relationship between the US 10 year note and the USD/JPY.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNow, I could spend hours on this subject. I do not want to do that because it’s boring, my point that I want to make is that everything, regardless of market is linked one way or another. It is the classic DOMINO EFFECT.\r\n\r\nA couple of years ago I wrote a blog titled THE DOMINO EFFECT and, in my opinion, we are here again. The penny may have finally dropped with equity traders that interest rates are going to rise and instead of burying their heads in the sand, they make a more professional approach.\r\n\r\nI think that it would be fair to say that the FX market reaction has in the main been fairly muted. The EUR/USD has not been running up and down the charts like a headless chicken, it has been very placid. The USD/JPY has been flexing but no way near as much as I had thought it may have given the situation.\r\n\r\nIf this current market revision in sentiment, was a party, I would say that the BOND and COMMODITY traders arrived first, followed quickly by the FUTURES traders then by the FX traders and what seems to be the case on every occasion the EQUITY traders are last to arrive. The penny needs to drop with a loud bang for the message to register.\r\n\r\nThe FOMC minutes release last week was a classic case in point. On a quick scanned glance, I thought that the minutes looked confirming, to me it was HAWKISH. I was astonished when the USD was sold off. I covered positions and took limit orders off the table, only for about 60 minutes after being released the USD started to spike as the reality of the content of the minutes was interpreted accurately. The USD losses were more than wiped out with gains into the close.\r\n\r\nWe have markets that are having problems adjusting. The BUY THE DIP approach is just NOT going to work in a two-way market which finally looks like it’s going to be on the cards once again.\r\n\r\nBut it’s not going to be that simple.\r\n\r\nWe have an administration in D.C. that really does NOT want a strong USD, which, seems to be a hand in glove partner to the T-Bill moves, the stock market moves, and the commodity price moves that will be on the cards with inflation and a cycle of increasing interest rates in the pipeline.\r\n\r\nThis creates uncertainty, which in turn will fuel volatility.\r\n\r\nI am a believer in correlations; correlations do matter whether they are inside one market or an inter-market correlation. These are fundamental to the DOMINO EFFECT.\r\n\r\nIt’s complicated but trying to keep it simple. USD (DXY), US Treasuries, GOLD, OIL, USD/JPY, the VIX and the SPX all have a correlated inter-woven part to play to moving forward. Right now, there is an element of doing their own thing. The SPX is no longer reacting the 10 Year Yields, OIL and the USD not in sync, USD and GOLD not quite there.\r\n\r\nThe upshot is that at the moment we have a CALM… a CALM BEFORE THE STORM. It is inevitable that a reaction is going to take place. The mini crash of a couple of weeks ago saw price movements in chunks at a time so fierce was the volatility. It will happen again.\r\n\r\nWhen and what will be the trigger?\r\n\r\nThe $64,000 question.\r\n\r\nRight now, I would say if treasury yields cross 3% it could be a strong catalyst. But it could as easily be something else like a collapse in OIL prices.\r\n\r\nHowever, this week we have the new FED Chair, Jerome Powell delivering the FED Monetary Policy Report (Humphrey-Hawkins testimony) to congress this coming Tuesday. If he delivers a very interpreted HAWKISH view of the U.S. economy, it is possible that this could be the catalyst to set the DOMINO EFFECT in play.\r\n\r\nHowever, …\r\n\r\nThere are so many “If’s and buts”. I think the phrase is “If ifs and buts were candy and nuts we’d all have a happy Christmas”. This STORM will happen long before Christmas this year, I think that I am safe in announcing that!\r\n\r\nAll we can do is sit in front of our screens each morning, go through our startup routines and ask the question… “Is today going to be the day” and get prepared. With every day that passes without reaction the big day looms closer!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>USD SUPPORT and RESISTANCE with my BIAS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/TCHART-24022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-11010\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/TCHART-24022018-1024x891.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"891\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE PREMIUM SERVICE TRADING SUMMARY:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:\r\n</u>(Incorporating the last 5 PREMIUM SERVICE TRADES)\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/PS-SUMMARY-24022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-11014\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/PS-SUMMARY-24022018-1024x852.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"852\" /></a>\r\n\r\nYou can get on board and join from as little as CAD$150.00 per month, conversions are roughly as follows: -\r\n\r\nGBP £90 per month\r\nEUR €100 per month\r\nUSD $120 per month\r\nJPY 12,700 per month\r\nAUD $150 per month\r\n\r\nThis represents a great value way to subscribe…  and a great RISK / REWARD!\r\n\r\nYou can subscribe for periods as well. Go to my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> for more details under the TAB – “SUBSCRIBE HERE”.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(This section is for PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS ONLY)\r\n\r\n<u>5.1. TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.2. SENTIMENT,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3. THE WEEK AHEAD:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.1. ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES THAT INTEREST ME:</u>\r\n\r\n<u> 5.3.2. MY KEY EVENTS ON THIS WEEK’S CALENDAR AND WHY:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.3. HOW I WILL APPROACH and TRADE THE MARKET THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.4. MY “MACRO” TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEK AHEAD:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.4. CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.4.1. CURRENT LIVE TRADES:\r\n</u>\r\n<u>5.4.2. CURRENT LIMIT ORDER TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.6. FX BROKER NEWS and MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE FINAL SHOT:</strong></span><strong> </strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\n\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #271 FREE NEWSLETTER\r\nDATE: 24th February 2018','CALM BEFORE THE STORM?','','publish','open','closed','','calm-before-the-storm','','','2018-02-24 06:16:03','2018-02-24 11:16:03','',0,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?p=11023',0,'post','',0),(11024,1,'2018-02-23 17:33:29','2018-02-23 22:33:29','&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE FIRST SHOT:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nAnother week has just flown by once again.\r\n\r\nI am banking $$$ and pips as I go along although my brokers containing my POSITION TRADES are just mainly a sea of red. Every now and then I bank pips, in fact, this month I have +1,115 pips from POSITION trades alone but the broker accounts never seem to move! My shorter-term trades are far more fluid, with just over +1,000 pips emanating from shorter-term trading so far this month. It looks as though February 2018 could be a record month. I thought that last year’s +1,420 pips was a great total but providing nothing stupid happens this February will be the best since 2014, which was the PREMIUM SERVICE inaugural year.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nMost of the focus recently has been on US10year Treasury Yields as they approach 3%.\r\n\r\nIt appears to me that the only subject that is consistent across all the G10 major Central Banks at the moment is INFLATION. It used to be DEFLATION that was the primary focus, but Central Bank Presidents and Governors couldn’t say that word without squeezing their buttocks together, so they created the word DIS-INFLATION instead. Since the US 10YRTreasury 3% level became a reality, INFLATION is mentioned soooooo many times now!\r\n\r\nFrom a trading perspective at least, we know more than ever what data attracts more policy attention and focus.\r\n\r\nHowever, we had the FOMC minutes from Yellen’s last meeting published last Wednesday. What a farce that was. A massive spike in stocks and drop in DXY to be completely reversed and “some more” all in 3 hours. Just some crazy movements in prices. I just love the TV anchors / analysts trying to find a logical reason behind a complete reversal switch in market sentiment. Sometimes it is just impossible to know why. I am now more often than not sidelined at these bigger “market moving” news events: - FOMC, NFP, ECB Press Conferences and BOE Super Thursday’s. I no longer see the point of trading these events they are often just knee-jerk moves and to trade to make 20 pip moves is just NOT my bag at all. Having said that at times beggars can’t be choosers!\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong> MARKET OVERVIEW – MY THOUGHTS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>CALM BEFORE THE STORM?</strong></span></p>\r\nI sense an unease with market sentiment… God I’m good at this!\r\n\r\nNo matter what you trade, BONDS, STOCKS, FUTURES, COMMODITIES or FOREX every morning regardless of your location on this planet you must get the “I wonder is this going to be the day” thoughts going through your head.\r\n\r\nI only trade Forex, I am just NOT interested in anything else to trade although from next year, I may add trading indices to my trade portfolio, but that is as good as my “what happens if’s” that I post to twitter most mornings to my PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers, it may not happen for any number of reasons.\r\n\r\nWe are in volatile trading times at the moment. A little bit of background.\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>The USD index (DXY) is presently bouncing off recent lows of 88.15 trying to establish a base and work its way back above rent short term highs of 90.45. If it does NOT surpass this level, I will be calling the bounce off 83.15 a dead cat bounce.</li>\r\n 	<li>THE SPX is off its recent highs of 2,728.75 following the recent crash in prices. It hit an intra-day low of 2,706.25 and it is trying to use this level as a base from which to attempt to regain lost ground.</li>\r\n 	<li>Given that we now have inflation into the US economy, the traditional flight to safety of GOLD has been flexing its muscles. It has been in a range from lows of $1,309.00 to highs of $1,370.50 per ounce for the past 3-4 weeks.</li>\r\n 	<li>US Treasuries 10 Year Bond Yield. This has been the subject of much speculation because of the recent equity markets crash. The yield has been drifting higher for quite some time, ignored by equity traders. At the time of the last Non-Farm payrolls print, which included the mark-up in Average Hourly wages deemed to be the reason for the crash the yield spikes to 2.88%. Since NFP day it has been as high as 2.95%... 3% is looming!\r\n\r\nHigher U.S. interest rates from the FED on the horizon caused treasury yields to react higher.\r\n\r\nBond yields are sensitive to inflation and there is also a relationship between the US 10 year note and the USD/JPY.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNow, I could spend hours on this subject. I do not want to do that because it’s boring, my point that I want to make is that everything, regardless of market is linked one way or another. It is the classic DOMINO EFFECT.\r\n\r\nA couple of years ago I wrote a blog titled THE DOMINO EFFECT and, in my opinion, we are here again. The penny may have finally dropped with equity traders that interest rates are going to rise and instead of burying their heads in the sand, they make a more professional approach.\r\n\r\nI think that it would be fair to say that the FX market reaction has in the main been fairly muted. The EUR/USD has not been running up and down the charts like a headless chicken, it has been very placid. The USD/JPY has been flexing but no way near as much as I had thought it may have given the situation.\r\n\r\nIf this current market revision in sentiment, was a party, I would say that the BOND and COMMODITY traders arrived first, followed quickly by the FUTURES traders then by the FX traders and what seems to be the case on every occasion the EQUITY traders are last to arrive. The penny needs to drop with a loud bang for the message to register.\r\n\r\nThe FOMC minutes release last week was a classic case in point. On a quick scanned glance, I thought that the minutes looked confirming, to me it was HAWKISH. I was astonished when the USD was sold off. I covered positions and took limit orders off the table, only for about 60 minutes after being released the USD started to spike as the reality of the content of the minutes was interpreted accurately. The USD losses were more than wiped out with gains into the close.\r\n\r\nWe have markets that are having problems adjusting. The BUY THE DIP approach is just NOT going to work in a two-way market which finally looks like it’s going to be on the cards once again.\r\n\r\nBut it’s not going to be that simple.\r\n\r\nWe have an administration in D.C. that really does NOT want a strong USD, which, seems to be a hand in glove partner to the T-Bill moves, the stock market moves, and the commodity price moves that will be on the cards with inflation and a cycle of increasing interest rates in the pipeline.\r\n\r\nThis creates uncertainty, which in turn will fuel volatility.\r\n\r\nI am a believer in correlations; correlations do matter whether they are inside one market or an inter-market correlation. These are fundamental to the DOMINO EFFECT.\r\n\r\nIt’s complicated but trying to keep it simple. USD (DXY), US Treasuries, GOLD, OIL, USD/JPY, the VIX and the SPX all have a correlated inter-woven part to play to moving forward. Right now, there is an element of doing their own thing. The SPX is no longer reacting the 10 Year Yields, OIL and the USD not in sync, USD and GOLD not quite there.\r\n\r\nThe upshot is that at the moment we have a CALM… a CALM BEFORE THE STORM. It is inevitable that a reaction is going to take place. The mini crash of a couple of weeks ago saw price movements in chunks at a time so fierce was the volatility. It will happen again.\r\n\r\nWhen and what will be the trigger?\r\n\r\nThe $64,000 question.\r\n\r\nRight now, I would say if treasury yields cross 3% it could be a strong catalyst. But it could as easily be something else like a collapse in OIL prices.\r\n\r\nHowever, this week we have the new FED Chair, Jerome Powell delivering the FED Monetary Policy Report (Humphrey-Hawkins testimony) to congress this coming Tuesday. If he delivers a very interpreted HAWKISH view of the U.S. economy, it is possible that this could be the catalyst to set the DOMINO EFFECT in play.\r\n\r\nHowever, …\r\n\r\nThere are so many “If’s and buts”. I think the phrase is “If ifs and buts were candy and nuts we’d all have a happy Christmas”. This STORM will happen long before Christmas this year, I think that I am safe in announcing that!\r\n\r\nAll we can do is sit in front of our screens each morning, go through our startup routines and ask the question… “Is today going to be the day” and get prepared. With every day that passes without reaction the big day looms closer!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>USD SUPPORT and RESISTANCE with my BIAS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/TCHART-24022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-11010\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/TCHART-24022018-1024x891.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"891\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE PREMIUM SERVICE TRADING SUMMARY:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:\r\n</u>(Incorporating the last 5 PREMIUM SERVICE TRADES)\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/PS-SUMMARY-24022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-11014\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/PS-SUMMARY-24022018-1024x852.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"852\" /></a>\r\n\r\nYou can get on board and join from as little as CAD$150.00 per month, conversions are roughly as follows: -\r\n\r\nGBP £90 per month\r\nEUR €100 per month\r\nUSD $120 per month\r\nJPY 12,700 per month\r\nAUD $150 per month\r\n\r\nThis represents a great value way to subscribe…  and a great RISK / REWARD!\r\n\r\nYou can subscribe for periods as well. Go to my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> for more details under the TAB – “SUBSCRIBE HERE”.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(This section is for PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS ONLY)\r\n\r\n<u>5.1. TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.2. SENTIMENT,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3. THE WEEK AHEAD:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.1. ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES THAT INTEREST ME:\r\n\r\n</u><u> 5.3.2. MY KEY EVENTS ON THIS WEEK’S CALENDAR AND WHY:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.3. HOW I WILL APPROACH and TRADE THE MARKET THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.4. MY “MACRO” TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEK AHEAD:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.4. CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.4.1. CURRENT LIVE TRADES:\r\n</u>\r\n<u>5.4.2. CURRENT LIMIT ORDER TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.6. FX BROKER NEWS and MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE FINAL SHOT:</strong></span><strong> </strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\n\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #271 FREE NEWSLETTER\r\nDATE: 24th February 2018','CALM BEFORE THE STORM?','','inherit','closed','closed','','11023-revision-v1','','','2018-02-23 17:33:29','2018-02-23 22:33:29','',11023,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/11023-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(11025,1,'2018-02-23 17:34:13','2018-02-23 22:34:13','<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/LIVE-24022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-11013\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/LIVE-24022018-1024x987.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"987\" /></a>','Live Trades','','inherit','closed','closed','','9394-revision-v1','','','2018-02-23 17:34:13','2018-02-23 22:34:13','',9394,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/9394-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(11032,1,'2018-02-24 06:16:03','2018-02-24 11:16:03','&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE FIRST SHOT:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nAnother week has just flown by once again.\r\n\r\nI am banking $$$ and pips as I go along although my brokers containing my POSITION TRADES are just mainly a sea of red. Every now and then I bank pips, in fact, this month I have +1,115 pips from POSITION trades alone but the broker accounts never seem to move! My shorter-term trades are far more fluid, with just over +1,000 pips emanating from shorter-term trading so far this month. It looks as though February 2018 could be a record month. I thought that last year’s +1,420 pips was a great total but providing nothing stupid happens this February will be the best since 2014, which was the PREMIUM SERVICE inaugural year.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nMost of the focus recently has been on US10year Treasury Yields as they approach 3%.\r\n\r\nIt appears to me that the only subject that is consistent across all the G10 major Central Banks at the moment is INFLATION. It used to be DEFLATION that was the primary focus, but Central Bank Presidents and Governors couldn’t say that word without squeezing their buttocks together, so they created the word DIS-INFLATION instead. Since the US 10YRTreasury 3% level became a reality, INFLATION is mentioned soooooo many times now!\r\n\r\nFrom a trading perspective at least, we know more than ever what data attracts more policy attention and focus.\r\n\r\nHowever, we had the FOMC minutes from Yellen’s last meeting published last Wednesday. What a farce that was. A massive spike in stocks and drop in DXY to be completely reversed and “some more” all in 3 hours. Just some crazy movements in prices. I just love the TV anchors / analysts trying to find a logical reason behind a complete reversal switch in market sentiment. Sometimes it is just impossible to know why. I am now more often than not sidelined at these bigger “market moving” news events: - FOMC, NFP, ECB Press Conferences and BOE Super Thursday’s. I no longer see the point of trading these events they are often just knee-jerk moves and to trade to make 20 pip moves is just NOT my bag at all. Having said that at times beggars can’t be choosers!\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong> MARKET OVERVIEW – MY THOUGHTS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>CALM BEFORE THE STORM?</strong></span></p>\r\nI sense an unease with market sentiment… God I’m good at this!\r\n\r\nNo matter what you trade, BONDS, STOCKS, FUTURES, COMMODITIES or FOREX every morning regardless of your location on this planet you must get the “I wonder is this going to be the day” thoughts going through your head.\r\n\r\nI only trade Forex, I am just NOT interested in anything else to trade although from next year, I may add trading indices to my trade portfolio, but that is as good as my “what happens if’s” that I post to twitter most mornings to my PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers, it may not happen for any number of reasons.\r\n\r\nWe are in volatile trading times at the moment. A little bit of background.\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>The USD index (DXY) is presently bouncing off recent lows of 88.15 trying to establish a base and work its way back above rent short term highs of 90.45. If it does NOT surpass this level, I will be calling the bounce off 83.15 a dead cat bounce.</li>\r\n 	<li>THE SPX is off its recent highs of 2,728.75 following the recent crash in prices. It hit an intra-day low of 2,706.25 and it is trying to use this level as a base from which to attempt to regain lost ground.</li>\r\n 	<li>Given that we now have inflation into the US economy, the traditional flight to safety of GOLD has been flexing its muscles. It has been in a range from lows of $1,309.00 to highs of $1,370.50 per ounce for the past 3-4 weeks.</li>\r\n 	<li>US Treasuries 10 Year Bond Yield. This has been the subject of much speculation because of the recent equity markets crash. The yield has been drifting higher for quite some time, ignored by equity traders. At the time of the last Non-Farm payrolls print, which included the mark-up in Average Hourly wages deemed to be the reason for the crash the yield spikes to 2.88%. Since NFP day it has been as high as 2.95%... 3% is looming!Higher U.S. interest rates from the FED on the horizon caused treasury yields to react higher.\r\n\r\nBond yields are sensitive to inflation and there is also a relationship between the US 10 year note and the USD/JPY.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNow, I could spend hours on this subject. I do not want to do that because it’s boring, my point that I want to make is that everything, regardless of market is linked one way or another. It is the classic DOMINO EFFECT.\r\n\r\nA couple of years ago I wrote a blog titled THE DOMINO EFFECT and, in my opinion, we are here again. The penny may have finally dropped with equity traders that interest rates are going to rise and instead of burying their heads in the sand, they make a more professional approach.\r\n\r\nI think that it would be fair to say that the FX market reaction has in the main been fairly muted. The EUR/USD has not been running up and down the charts like a headless chicken, it has been very placid. The USD/JPY has been flexing but no way near as much as I had thought it may have given the situation.\r\n\r\nIf this current market revision in sentiment, was a party, I would say that the BOND and COMMODITY traders arrived first, followed quickly by the FUTURES traders then by the FX traders and what seems to be the case on every occasion the EQUITY traders are last to arrive. The penny needs to drop with a loud bang for the message to register.\r\n\r\nThe FOMC minutes release last week was a classic case in point. On a quick scanned glance, I thought that the minutes looked confirming, to me it was HAWKISH. I was astonished when the USD was sold off. I covered positions and took limit orders off the table, only for about 60 minutes after being released the USD started to spike as the reality of the content of the minutes was interpreted accurately. The USD losses were more than wiped out with gains into the close.\r\n\r\nWe have markets that are having problems adjusting. The BUY THE DIP approach is just NOT going to work in a two-way market which finally looks like it’s going to be on the cards once again.\r\n\r\nBut it’s not going to be that simple.\r\n\r\nWe have an administration in D.C. that really does NOT want a strong USD, which, seems to be a hand in glove partner to the T-Bill moves, the stock market moves, and the commodity price moves that will be on the cards with inflation and a cycle of increasing interest rates in the pipeline.\r\n\r\nThis creates uncertainty, which in turn will fuel volatility.\r\n\r\nI am a believer in correlations; correlations do matter whether they are inside one market or an inter-market correlation. These are fundamental to the DOMINO EFFECT.\r\n\r\nIt’s complicated but trying to keep it simple. USD (DXY), US Treasuries, GOLD, OIL, USD/JPY, the VIX and the SPX all have a correlated inter-woven part to play to moving forward. Right now, there is an element of doing their own thing. The SPX is no longer reacting the 10 Year Yields, OIL and the USD not in sync, USD and GOLD not quite there.\r\n\r\nThe upshot is that at the moment we have a CALM… a CALM BEFORE THE STORM. It is inevitable that a reaction is going to take place. The mini crash of a couple of weeks ago saw price movements in chunks at a time so fierce was the volatility. It will happen again.\r\n\r\nWhen and what will be the trigger?\r\n\r\nThe $64,000 question.\r\n\r\nRight now, I would say if treasury yields cross 3% it could be a strong catalyst. But it could as easily be something else like a collapse in OIL prices.\r\n\r\nHowever, this week we have the new FED Chair, Jerome Powell delivering the FED Monetary Policy Report (Humphrey-Hawkins testimony) to congress this coming Tuesday. If he delivers a very interpreted HAWKISH view of the U.S. economy, it is possible that this could be the catalyst to set the DOMINO EFFECT in play.\r\n\r\nHowever, …\r\n\r\nThere are so many “If’s and buts”. I think the phrase is “If ifs and buts were candy and nuts we’d all have a happy Christmas”. This STORM will happen long before Christmas this year, I think that I am safe in announcing that!\r\n\r\nAll we can do is sit in front of our screens each morning, go through our startup routines and ask the question… “Is today going to be the day” and get prepared. With every day that passes without reaction the big day looms closer!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>USD SUPPORT and RESISTANCE with my BIAS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/TCHART-24022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-11010\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/TCHART-24022018-1024x891.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"891\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE PREMIUM SERVICE TRADING SUMMARY:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:\r\n</u>(Incorporating the last 5 PREMIUM SERVICE TRADES)\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/PS-SUMMARY-24022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-11014\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/PS-SUMMARY-24022018-1024x852.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"852\" /></a>\r\n\r\nYou can get on board and join from as little as CAD$150.00 per month, conversions are roughly as follows: -\r\n\r\nGBP £90 per month\r\nEUR €100 per month\r\nUSD $120 per month\r\nJPY 12,700 per month\r\nAUD $150 per month\r\n\r\nThis represents a great value way to subscribe…  and a great RISK / REWARD!\r\n\r\nYou can subscribe for periods as well. Go to my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> for more details under the TAB – “SUBSCRIBE HERE”.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(This section is for PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS ONLY)\r\n\r\n<u>5.1. TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.2. SENTIMENT,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3. THE WEEK AHEAD:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.1. ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES THAT INTEREST ME:</u>\r\n\r\n<u> 5.3.2. MY KEY EVENTS ON THIS WEEK’S CALENDAR AND WHY:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.3. HOW I WILL APPROACH and TRADE THE MARKET THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.4. MY “MACRO” TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEK AHEAD:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.4. CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.4.1. CURRENT LIVE TRADES:\r\n</u>\r\n<u>5.4.2. CURRENT LIMIT ORDER TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.6. FX BROKER NEWS and MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE FINAL SHOT:</strong></span><strong> </strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\n\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #271 FREE NEWSLETTER\r\nDATE: 24th February 2018','CALM BEFORE THE STORM?','','inherit','closed','closed','','11023-revision-v1','','','2018-02-24 06:16:03','2018-02-24 11:16:03','',11023,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/11023-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),