<span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>1. INTRODUCTION:</strong></span>

Another week of basically just range trading for me this week, with only a couple of exceptions the USD/JPY and GBP/USD breaking out. I am starting to think that maybe I will  look after the garden more this year as the Fx market is a little time wasting.

I entered 30 trades this week. Three trades remain open...there were 19 profitable trades and 8 losing trades...the overall gain was about $250.00. Is it worth the time and energy involved? I love trading, I love the research, I love playing with the charts...but the time spent versus the return...very questionable. I know I should be happy, very happy given the way the markets are, to have profits, but I am seriously thinking of applying myself in another direction for the summer and return to Fx in September. As we all know all the markets slow down and liquidity becomes an issue from June to September anyhow. In the past six years I have traded through the summer having breakfast on the terrace, but this year I am so frustrated with my returns and the markets generally I am seriously thinking of having a little Fx holiday from trading.

My wife and I are looking to move house from Quebec to another Canadian province so the timing could fit nicely. The only problem....I am a bit of an Fx junkie and need my daily fix.....I am like a little lost boy wondering what to do on Saturday mornings after writing this blog  and as for Sundays......bloody nightmare brain wise until 5.00pm eastern.

Moving on.....on Thursday, I had to check that hell had in fact not frozen over.....Houdini was resurrected in the guise of GBP/USD, which surprised the knickers off me by avoiding a triple dip recession. The UK Chancellor, George Osborne was heard walking through the adjoining corridor between 11 and 10 Downing Street on his way to see David Cameron, whistling the theme tune to "The Great Escape"........   I am happy for the UK, but can't help feeling that these numbers mean bugger all to the man on the street trying to make ends meet.

The USD/JPY can't get through 100.00........it's really in a series of lower highs every time it tries to break this key psychological number. I have traded it recently in both directions with both success and failure...... My only point on this pair that bugs me, and I tweeted about this - Don't you think that someone should get a roll of duct tape and stick it over Kuroda's mouth to shut him up. This guy talks every bloody night to the press and I think the markets are getting sick to death of the same old same old spewing from his mouth...give me a break...less is more. I think his continual verbal assault is strengthening the Yen, rather than weakening it!!

Finally, I can't move on without mentioning my favourite subject; the Eurozone.  Spanish unemployment hits 27.2%, French PMi's outperform and German PMi's this week were lower, what a see-saw in my EUR/USD trade, my stop at 1.3250 held but after the French PMi release with the German numbers to come, I thought hello loss......instead a huge reversal. German "IFO" numbers failed as well. The EUR/USD stuck like glue pretty much towards the end of the week to 1.3000 on talk of an interest rate cut......hmmn.....

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<span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>2. THE VIEW FROM MY TRADING DESK:</strong></span>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>WILL DRAGHI CUT RATES THIS THURSDAY?</strong></p>
This coming week is a monster week for news relating to the Fx market, lots of big events. The biggest standout for me is whether Draghi has the balls to defy Berlin and cut the benchmark Euro rate from 0.75% by 25 basis points to 0.50%.

My last few blogs main segment notes have been: -

March 23rd - CYPRUS: THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE BIGGEST F**K UP THE EUROZONE HAS EVER MADE
March 30th - ANOTHER CAN GET''S KICKED DOWN THE ROAD......
April 6th - SO.....DRAGHI THINKS ALL IS WELL WITHIN THE EUROZONE.....INTERESTING!!
April 13th -  THE EUROZONE IS SO F***ED UP....WE JUST NEED DRAGHI &amp; MERKEL TO FINALLY ADMIT IT
April 20th - THE EUROZONE....WHAT A MESS; I JUST DON'T GET IT....THE POLITICIANS MAKE IT WORSE

Bit of a pattern eh!!

Yes....the Eurozone is always in my thoughts. I am not in any way shape or form complimentary about the way the Eurozone is managed and to be frank I see it as a vehicle for most Eurozone politicians to abuse as a vehicle for tasting fine wines and sitting down to lavish seven course meals. Both the Brussels and Frankfurt Eurozone centres have blossoming Corporate hospitality businesses second to none in the world, in fact, this type of business is a major success in the Eurozone......there are so many "Jollies" in the calendar it's a disgrace and tax payers deserve much more.

Will super "I will do whatever it takes" Mario Draghi cut interest rates this week on Thursday? If Trichet was still head of the ECB I would say a definite NO.  Draghi cut rates at his first meeting in charge when he replaced JC......so he has history of not being afraid to make his mark, and, he has done a tremendous job in spite of having to deal with a batch of numpty politicians on a daily basis.......but..............................remember he works for Berlin. It is difficult at times to see the strings, but he is a puppet, and those strings are there...although in 2013 they would be classified as virtual!!

The Bundesbank through Wiedmann, the German Finance Minister Schauble and Queen Angela have all weighed in on this subject over the past few days and basically.... Austerity rules......it is the only way......we (the Germans) do not need rate cuts in fact we could do with  higher rates........

The last paragraph must be music to the ears of the desperate Spanish people looking for any glimmer of hope to ease their financial burden, the same applies to the Greek, Portuguese, Slovenian and Cypriot populations who would clutch at anything that looks to give them something positive. Austerity simply is not working across the Eurozone in totality....that is a fact. Policies that promote growth which would help reduce employment lines in all the countries already mentioned plus Italy is what the Eurozone needs or there will be no turning the corner. I know that it is very easy for me to make these comments but I have connections back in blighty (the UK), Ireland and Spain and I regularly receive feedback from readers in other Eurozone countries, who are united in one fact......numbers and percentages quoted by their government's, Brussels or  Frankfurt say one thing but the street is where it happens and without exception my connections are united in their comment that they are all f***ed.

If Draghi does not cut, I think the markets will attack the single currency like f**k.........and we will be looking at 1.2000 in the coming weeks. It will in my opinion just support my beliefs that the ECB is so out of touch it's unbelievable. If Draghi does cut, I think that there is a fair chance, say 70%-30% that the EUR will strengthen, as it would be viewed positive.

My heart tells me cut...but my brain says no....I think that unless a monumental Eurozone screw up is handed to the markets over the next few days, Draghi will talk about it coming in the next couple of months.

Get ready to trade it either way....

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<span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>3. MY LONGER TERM TRADES:</strong></span>
<p style="text-align: center;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>EUR/USD:</strong></span></p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>Date Trade Entered: Monday 26th April 2013</strong>
<strong>Long/Short: Short</strong>
<strong>Number of Days in trade: 5</strong>
<strong>Cost Average Entry Price: 1.3010</strong>
<strong>Stop Loss: 1.3125</strong>
<strong>Profit / Target level: 1.2360</strong>
<strong>Position Size: 20%</strong>
<strong>Current position +/- pips: loss 21 pips</strong></p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>AUD/USD:</strong></span></p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>Date Trade entered: Monday 26th April 2013</strong>
<strong> Long/Short: Short</strong>
<strong>Number of Days in trade: 5</strong>
<strong>Cost Average Entry Price: 1.0275</strong>
<strong>Stop Loss: 1.0440</strong>
<strong>Profit / Target level: 0.9750</strong>
<strong>Position Size: 100%</strong>
<strong>Current position +/- pips: loss 1 pip</strong></p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>USD/CHF:</strong></span></p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>Date Trade entered: Wednesday 28th April 2013</strong>
<strong>Long/Short: Long</strong>
<strong> Number of Days in trade: 3</strong>
<strong>Cost Average Entry Price: 0.9454</strong>
<strong>Stop Loss: 0.9350</strong>
<strong>Profit / Target level: 0.9750</strong>
<strong>Position Size: 20%</strong>
<strong>Current position +/- pips: loss 27 pips</strong></p>
<p style="text-align: left;">I was also long the USD/CAD until yesterday and took at big 75 pip loss on the trade. Call me weak....for being a little yellow, not widening my stops, but I am playing to my Trading Plan. I was 60% loaded and to be honest I will probably regret the trade but I must remain true to my trade plan, it has held me in good order this year and last year it saved me thousands of dollars. My stop was tighter than normal on the USD/CAD, but key levels gave way and I wanted to limit my exposure.</p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>4. LOOKING AHEAD INTO THIS WEEK'S SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS:</strong></span></p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3029.</strong></span>  The 1.3000 level is proving to be a magnet level ahead of this week's ECB Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference. After the poor German PMi statistics and the Ifo Business confidence number both being weak, the EUR/USD fell from 1.3200 resistance back to 1.3000. This is a great level of support, it has ventured lower on a few occasions only to spring back above shortly after. 1.2950 is big support below there opens up a test of 1.2650 and below. 1,3200 will offer great resistance on the way back up. Roll on Thursday it will be "Knicker gripping!!"</p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.5474.</span> </strong>We are stopped just below 1.5480 resistance. With Hell not freezing over on Thursday morning, I think that we could get up to 1.5620 before moving lower again. Great resistance lies there and I have it etched in my brain to look to short around a stop loss break between 1.5600 and 1.5650. Support will be the tough resistance prior to the GDP release of 1.5300.</p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>AUD/USD: Closing Price 1.0276.</strong></span> If I have said it once, I must have said it a thousand times......"Correlations matter" This pair used to be joined at the hip to the S&amp;P....not anymore. As the S&amp;P grinds higher the Aussie is falling; God only knows what is going to happen to this pair should equities pull back. My target with this pair is sub parity at 0.9750 and then I am looking at 0.9300. The pair bounces on government news releases an then the short lived bounce is sold into by the market, I have a long term short trade in effect at the moment. I have taken profits along the way and added back. I am fully loaded short and have no problems remaining so for the forseeable future. The range is 1.0215 to 1.0380.</p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8480. </strong></span>I want to get short this pair. In my opinion it is the most inflated major pair in the Fx market. It has started to come lower, so I am looking to short on a pullback around 0.8515. I think that there is a great opportunity to make money short in this pair. The last few times I have tried to short I think my success rate was about 50-50 without checking my trading history. It is not always following the AUD/USD so you have to be careful. The range is 0.8390 to 0.8550.</p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.0165.</strong></span> Having been duly stuffed yesterday with my long position I am still thinking that I may be trying a long trade again soon. I want the pair to drop to 1.0050.....but I do not think that that will happen unless the wheels come off the bus and the S&amp;P goes on acid and crude prices spike to $110.00. The range is 1.0140 to 1.0260.</p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>USD/JPY: Closing Price 98.05.</strong> </span>Despite the BOJ 2% inflation target and Kuroda's continual comments along with bond buying, this pair has strengthened since the BOJ meeting Thursday night/Friday morning. The 100.00  level has eluded this pair so far...but never under estimate the BOJ. They are showing teeth and it certainly seems like they mean business. We could be at 100.00 by Monday night if key factors fall into position, the USD/JPY can be that volatile if it chooses. The downside risks are for me at 96.00...wouldn't that just be a great place to enter long? The initial range for me however  is, 97.70 to 99.60.</p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.9429.</strong></span> We are currently playing out a "Head and Shoulders" pattern with the measured move to 0.9475. I am currently long this pair and I will add above a break of 0.9500. I think the EUR/USD is heading much lower so I am in the camp of parity in six months with this pair. Immediate levels are support at 0.9350 and resistance at 0.9475.</p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>5. MAJOR NEWS EVENTS IN THE COMING WEEK THAT INTEREST ME:</strong></span></p>
<p style="text-align: left;">There are weeks in the Fx market where news events are dominant and there are weeks that are just brilliant to trade.......this coming week is awesome. I have two dogs and this type of week is the kind where I ask my wife to do the morning feed as I do not want to be away from my machines and charts for a minute. This week has the potential for me to be permanently in the "Trading Room" adjoining the office in our basement.....little sleep and mucho coffee, and, additionally for extra umph I have replaced Jack and Diet with Gin and Tonic for the summer months.</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">This is some week......even Ben and the FED are in on the action......</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">TUESDAY: CAD - GDP
TUESDAY: USD - Consumer Confidence
TUESDAY: CNY - Manufacturing PMi</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">WEDNESDAY: GBP - Manufacturing PMi
WEDNESDAY: USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment numbers, ISM Manufacturing PMi and FOMC Statement.</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">THURSDAY: GBP - Construction PMi
THURSDAY: EUR - Interest Rate Announcement and ECB Press Conference,</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">FRIDAY: GBP - Services PMi
FRIDAY: USD - Non Farm Employment Rate, Unemployment Rate and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMi.</p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>6. CLOSING THOUGHTS...........FINAL COMMENTS:</strong></span></p>
<p style="text-align: left;">A very big week. These are the weeks that you can lose your account balance if you do not trade within your financial capabilities and stick to you trade plan. Trade lean and mean......do not leave your machine unprotected..wear 'depends' if you have to!!</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">In the end read up as much as you can. I will tweet as requested by some of you the progress, good or bad, on the three trades that I am currently in.</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">Good luck and take care,</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">Scott Pickering
The Pip Accumulator
Saturday 27th April 2013.</p>