(3546,1,'2014-04-26 12:16:39','2014-04-26 17:16:39','<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>1. INTRODUCTION:</strong>\r\n\r\nA very interesting trading and news week\r\n\r\nThe tensions in the Ukraine created new low levels of diplomacy extremes between Russia and the U.S. At times, the verbal exchanges reminded me of an old Monty Python sketch but I do not want to create humour out of this serious situation. However, for a serving Secretary of State to say to his Russian counterpart and Putin, “carry on and it will have serious, serious, major implications”, is Pythonesque. It also reminds me of Eddie Murphy in Beverley Hills Cop telling his boss that he was going deep, deep, deep undercover!\r\n\r\nThat aside, the USD/JPY and USD/CHF are reacting to the on-going developing situation as the Mexican standoff moves to a more threatening stage. It does look like it could be a double whammy for those who are on the “Must long the USD/JPY” trip. Recent gains in the S&amp;P have not been matched by the USD/JPY and this usually says that if equities really commence a pullback or deeper correction the USD/JPY will drop faster than usual on the back of the fact it never moved up in line with equities when they were in rally mode. Should this be case, I could be short JPY for a while as many JPY pairs have potentially big moves ahead of them to the short side. Add to this worldwide unrest and the “safe-haven” is back in play.\r\n\r\nThe bottom line is “THE CHOP FEST CONTINUES”\r\n\r\nI am currently live in 15 trades….the vast majority of them are very small trades. I am trying to establish core positions from which to base longer-term trades from. I have just 2 trades that I would call close to full size, USD/CAD long and NZD/USD short, plus a mid level short trade in the AUD/USD. I am not worried about the current positions of my current live trades; my stops are well within my RISK MANAGEMENT and my TRADING PLAN guidelines. The only thing that is bugging me are the ranges that we are now stuck in. We really require a catalyst to jump-start the market. This would not only benefit (hopefully) my larger trade sizes, but would also in establishing my core positions. Until this happens, I have just have to be patient and wait.\r\n\r\nThis coming week we have some FED speak with Yellen, an FOMC statement and both ADP and Government Non-Farm payrolls. Hopefully these 4 news items between them will get the market moving. But having just written this, I think I may have said something similar last month.\r\n\r\nIf you are a new trader, please note, and I re-iterate that 83% of the live trades that I am currently trading are small positions. None of my trades are full-size. If you are a PREMIUM SERVICE subscriber you do not have to copy every trade that I am live with, the only thing I ask is that you manage your position sizes, and trade within your trade plan risk tolerance levels. The PREMIUM SERVICE website has examples of how to put together a TRADING PLAN and additional training material on the website shows you the content to add to your TRADING PLAN and why.\r\n\r\nThis is not a time to get carried away when you think that there is a breakout or breakdown. There are so many false moves right now, which is typical of a range bound marketplace.\r\n\r\nI welcomed a further 4 new PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers during the week. I want to mention again, that the vast majority of my PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers are happy just to receive the DAILY FX POST and this weekly blog and are not interested in Twitter. I have absolutely no problem with this approach at all, but please bear in mind there are only 24 hours in a day, I need sleep from time to time so I cannot answer emails or SKYPE messages immediately, nor do I look for Twitter conversations.\r\n\r\nI have to research, publish set-ups, trade myself, manage trades, tweet, blog and write additional articles for the PREMIUM SERVICE version of this blog, plus develop Broker relationships for the future as the PREMIUM SERVICE develops. In addition, I am also writing for LINKEDIN as well to several Forex groups. If it takes me an hour or so to respond to questions I apologize. I promise you I am busy but I will get back to you.\r\n\r\nFor the new traders to the PREMIUM SERVICE my TRADER TOPIC discussion this week is “LIVE ACCOUNT versus DEMO ACCOUNT”, I hope that you will find this useful.\r\n\r\nI had 3 responses to my webinar suggestion last week, so that project has been shelved due to lack of interest.\r\n\r\nFinally, the PREMIUM SERVICE income is still moving forward in these challenging trading times so I am very happy with that. I am slightly behind my personal income objective, but not too far. I have been taking reduced profits as I have been reducing my trade sizes and as a result my income per trade is lower than my target. However, even with a modification in trading style this month has been a tremendous month all things considered: -\r\n\r\nSingle micro lot trades on the 44 closed trades this month = $147.30\r\nSingle mini lot trades on the 44 closed trades this month so far =$1,473.00\r\nSingle standard lot trades on the 44 trades this month so far = $14,730.00\r\n\r\nI have already written a training topic called “TRADING WITH A FLEXIBLE MINDSET” for next weeks PREMIUM SERVICE blog. This is something that I deeply believe in and I have been using this over the past 8 weeks. In March, at the beginning, I found the transition in the way that the market behaved very difficult to get to grips with, however; recently I have come to terms with a slightly revised trading strategy that has produced the goods. The written section on mindset flexibility will be in next week’s blog for the PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers.<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>2. THE VIEW FROM MY TRADING DESK:</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>CORRELATIONS DO MATTER…ESPECIALLY THE USD/JPY &amp; SPX</strong></p>\r\nCorrelations do matter and, yes, they are important factors to consider when researching a trade, establishing the entry, the risk and the profit potential. However, at times traders have to trade when correlations are off, out of sync, or just not playing ball.\r\n\r\nRight now, one of the best correlations in the market is not playing…the USD/JPY and the S&amp;P (SPX index S&amp;P 500).\r\n\r\nOver recent weeks there has been market volatility and turmoil not seen for a long, long time. The S&amp;P rose 65 points in a day recently, then sold off 75 points and bounced back 55 points. These are not normal market conditions and these intra-day moves in the S&amp;P way off the normal.\r\n\r\nThis past week, we saw the S&amp;P rally to highs from a low retracement base that had been formed about two weeks ago that had been formed. From the low to the high point was about a 75-80% retracement. During the same period the USD/JPY managed just under a 50% retracement. The correlation is now off, for years this has been a parallel relationship. What is this telling me?\r\n\r\nIt is telling me that the S&amp;P is going to move downwards and that the USD/JPY is ready to move much lower.\r\n\r\nIt may take a while to do as one has to consider the JPY cross-rates in all of this: EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY, SEK/JPY, CAD/JPY and CHF/JPY to name the most popular.\r\n\r\nThe EUR (single currency) is incredibly strong right now but should the ECB and Draghi finally extract “the digit” and execute a full on QE (Quantitative Easing) programme with bank negative deposit rates, this would fuel the fire lower.\r\n\r\nThe Commodity currencies are under pressure already from their central banks (RBA, RBNZ) constantly quoting that exchange rates are at historic highs and cannot stay there for long. Therefore the downside pressure on the AUD and NZD is there. It is only equities that are holding them up.\r\n\r\nThe Swedish Central Bank is fighting deflation and the SEK is under pressure. The SEK is approaching an inflection point against the EUR and the USD, and if it breaks the SEK/JPY is a prime candidate for a move lower.\r\n\r\nShould the USD/JPY fall the commodity crosses will follow, AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY CAD/JPY and SEK/JPY.\r\n\r\nWhat is needed to start the process?\r\n\r\nJust a little bit of what drives the markets…this time not greed but FEAR.\r\n\r\nFEAR would hit the GBP currency very quickly as the UK is a heavily based Financial economy and if FEAR hits the GREEDMONGERS behind their desks, the “Pen Pushing”, “Desk Sucking” “Jotter-blotters” only know one course of action...that is sell and panic, “get me out at any cost, but look just get me out”.\r\n\r\nThe Ukraine / Russian tensions could be the catalyst. Rhetoric from some of the spokespersons involved is desperate to say the least, World War III has been introduced into the dialogue, and it’s not pretty.\r\n\r\nThe ECB may go into full-on QE.\r\n\r\nCross-rate effects are important, in particular if the GBP and EUR were primary candidates to influence the JPY because of their relationship to the US dollar index.\r\n\r\nEverything is linked…it just needs one move to set the ball rolling.\r\n\r\nCorrelations do matter and this one between the USD/JPY and SPX is a biggie and one that you have to seriously look at for the ramifications of its divergence.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>3. THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong>\r\n\r\nI make several references to the PREMIUM SERVICE during this blog. The reason for that is that the PREMIUM SERVICE blog is more detailed and contains more information that the free WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU version.\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber only service that provides my subscribers with the following: -\r\n\r\nTHE DAILY FX POST – this is a daily blog that goes directly to the secure subscriber area of the my website. This daily blog contains a brief overview of my thoughts each day on major FX news and reviews of key economic data. It also has trade set-ups for trades that are on my radar. I provide set ups for trades based upon three styles of trade, FLASH, RADAR or FUNDAMENTAL. This goal of this daily blog is to set traders up with a thought process for the day.\r\n\r\nTWITTER – an exclusive protected twitter feed. This adds to the DAILY FX POST throughout the following day and night with trade set-ups, updates and my thoughts on the market as it moves. If trades come into play I tweet them as my chart analysis is completed.\r\n\r\nTHE PREMIUM SERVICE BLOG – This is a more comprehensive review of the week just gone and the week ahead. It includes training sections and RADAR trades plus on going performance reviews of existing trades and my thoughts moving forward.\r\n\r\nTHE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS ONLY WEBSITE – This holds details of all trades, whether FLASH, RADAR or FUNDAMENTAL. Excel spreadsheets analyse the profit / loss performances all current trades and I also measure the year to date performances. The website also includes several sections containing training materials that are being added to weekly to provide traders with a comprehensive library of information. In the future, Webinars will be added and I am looking into a TRADER’s CHATROOM option, which would take the PREMIUM SERVICE on-line capabilities to the next level.\r\n\r\nIf this is something that interests you. If you go to the main website at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> on the welcome page on the top left you will see headings such as PREMIUM SERVICE, SPECIAL OFFERS and SIGN-UP all of these contain further information about the PREMIUM SERVICE and how to subscribe.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>There is now a low cost trial option of $20.00 for 4 weeks membership</strong></span>\r\n\r\nBelow there is a copy of the TRADING SUMMARY that PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers receive plus they have access to excel spreadsheets that detail trade by trade. These are in the PREMIUM SERVICE section of my website.<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>4. THE PREMIUM SERVICE - TRADING SUMMARY:</strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>RADAR, FLASH and FUNDAMENTAL TRADES</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>APRIL 2014 and YEAR to date:</strong>\r\n\r\nBelow I show the up to date performances for my various trading styles. Full excel spreadsheets are in the subscriber area of the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>RADAR TRADES – APRIL 2014…TO DATE:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>PROFITS FROM SINGLE LOT COMPLETED RADAR TRADES:</strong>\r\n\r\n1 x MICRO-LOT:\r\n\r\n12 trades at $0.10 cents each = $1.20 risk for $38.80 profit.\r\n\r\n1 x MINI-LOT:\r\n\r\n12 trades at $1.00 each = $12.00 risk for $388.00 profit.\r\n\r\n1 x STANDARD LOT:\r\n\r\n12 trades at $10.00 each = $120.00 risk for $3,880.00 profit.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>FLASH TRADES – APRIL 2014…TO DATE:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>PROFITS FROM SINGLE LOT COMPLETED FLASH TRADES:</strong>\r\n\r\n1 x MICRO-LOT:\r\n\r\n28 trades at $0.10 cents each = $2.80 cents risk for $98.70 profit.\r\n\r\n1 x MINI-LOT:\r\n\r\n28 trades at $1.00 each = $28.00 risk for $987.00 profit.\r\n\r\n1 x STANDARD LOT:\r\n\r\n28 trades at $10.00 each = $280.00 risk for $9,870.00 profit.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>FUNDAMENTAL TRADES – APRIL 2014…TO DATE:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>PROFITS FROM SINGLE LOT COMPLETED FUNDAMENTAL TRADES:</strong>\r\n\r\n1 x MICRO-LOT:\r\n\r\n4 trades at $0.10 cents each = $0.40 cents risk for $9.80 profit.\r\n\r\n1 x MINI-LOT:\r\n\r\n4 trades at $1.00 each = $4.00 risk for $98.00 profit.\r\n\r\n1 x STANDARD LOT:\r\n\r\n4 trades at $10.00 each = $40.00 risk for $980.00 profit.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>COMBINED FLASH, RADAR AND FUNDAMENTAL TRADES PROFIT PERFORMANCE</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>APRIL 2014…TO DATE:</strong>\r\n\r\nTRADING MICRO-LOTS:\r\n\r\n44 trades at $0.10 cents each = $4.40 risk for $147.30 profit.\r\n\r\nTRADING MINI-LOTS:\r\n\r\n44 trades at $1.00 each = $44.00 risk for $1,473.00 profit.\r\n\r\nTRADING STANDARD LOTS:\r\n\r\n44 trades at $10.00 each = $440.00 risk for $14,730.00 profit.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>COMBINED FLASH, RADAR AND FUNDAMENTAL TRADES PROFIT PERFORMANCE</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>TOTAL 2014…SO FAR:</strong>\r\n\r\nTRADING MICRO-LOTS:\r\n\r\n184 trades at $0.10 cents each = $18.40 risk for $350.80 profit.\r\n\r\nTRADING MINI-LOTS:\r\n\r\n184 trades at $1.00 each = $184.00 risk for $3,508.00 profit.\r\n\r\nTRADING STANDARD LOTS:\r\n\r\n184 trades at $10.00 each = $1,840.00 risk for $35,080.00 profit.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe above examples are for illustration purposes only:\r\n\r\nThe profitability examples detailed above are based solely upon single lot trading, regardless of lot type. If multiple lot sizes are traded the profitability margins will be different than those shown.\r\n\r\nJust to provide more information so you understand where I am coming from with the risk / reward statements above. All of my trades are of different sizes and different size lot types. The above does not reflect the actual trading performance, but it does show you the direction of the performance of the trades placed.\r\n\r\nI like to add to trades, profits are taken as the trade progresses and my overall cost average moves several times. All of my trades are of different lot styles. I trade a mixture of micro lots, mini lots and standard lots across my brokers.\r\n\r\nThe above results simply display your profit or loss if you placed a single lot trade on all the set-ups suggested and did nothing else.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>5. LOOKING FORWARD…THE KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3833.</strong> The past week has the ECB and Draghi talking up the rhetoric on the single currencies continued strength but not DEFLATION. QE and negative overnight ECB deposit rates have been talked about again. This has contained the EUR/USD to 1.3850. I was hoping for another run at 1.4000 to add to my existing short. Had the pair made this run I would imagine that Draghi would be wetting his pants desperate to get on the news wires once again to verbally intervene. So the next ECB Press Conference will be eagerly awaited and the rumours ahead of it at fever pitch. For now we are trapped in a tightening range 1.3750-1.3850.\r\n\r\n<strong>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.6793</strong>. I hate this pair at the moment. A few of my subscribers have tried getting short again the double / triple top whichever way you look at the charts….all to no avail. This pair just will not cave in and retreat back to the 1.6400 – 1.6500 area. It is well supported by the cross-rates, in particular, the GBP/AUD and GBP/NZD as they have been elevated of late and although not the full reason, these have been partially responsible for holding up the GBP. The other reason is the parallel relationship with the EUR. The EUR has not fallen so cable won’t either. I am looking at support at 1.6760 and resistance at 1.6840.\r\n\r\n<strong>AUD/USD: Closing Price 0.9267</strong>. The RBA stated once again that exchange rates are at historic highs and ever since there has been pressure on the AUD/USD. Unfortunately it has held up primarily because many traders and institutions are long trying to play out a measured move to 0.9500 on an inverted head and shoulders pattern. This is now invalidated and the pair seems to be ready to accept the fall. I am short looking to add below 0.9200.\r\n\r\nFor now support is at 0.9235 and resistance at 0.9320.\r\n\r\n<strong>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8574</strong>. One of my current largest trades right now is short the NZD/USD. There is huge support at 0.8550. If this gives way there are several trades and trade amendments due as per recent data in the PREMIUM SERVICE. Resistance is good at 0.8610.\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.1038.</strong> My other large position is long the USD/CAD. Whilst I am not concerned at present levels, as long as we are above the multi-year trend line support at 1.0850, trading the “loonie” is always fun. We are trying to break out of a tight range maybe this week will be the time. I have high hopes of mucho $$$ with this trade. For now however the immediate range that interests me is 1.0970 to 1.1060\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.8813</strong>. I am a nervous long with this pair, but my position size is small. Should tensions spill in Ukraine / Russia this is the European safe haven. We have held 0.8800 very well under several threats of late. We are once again above 0.8800. Key support should 0.8800 give way is at 0.8698 / 0.8700 and resistance is at 0.8875.\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/JPY: Closing Price 102.18. </strong>I have made several references to this pair throughout this blog. Not wanting to bore you with it all, all over again. Support is strong at 102.00 below there I suspect stops are between 101.80 and 101.90. If they get taken out in a huge fall, the next big support is 101.00. That gives way to - hello 100.00. Resistance is good at 102.80.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>6. MAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:</strong>\r\n\r\nSUNDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: JPY – BOJ Press Conference and Monetary Policy Statement.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – ADP Non-Farm Employment Change.\r\nWEDNESDAY: CAD – GDP.\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – FOMC Rate Statement.\r\nWEDNESDAY: CNY – Manufacturing PMi.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: USD – FED chair, Janet Yellen speaks.\r\nTHURSDAY: AUD – PPi.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: USD: - Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Rate.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>7. FINAL THOUGHTS:</strong>\r\n\r\nThere are some high profile news events this week that should get the markets moving along. We are still sitting in ranges at the moment in many different markets so unless the high profile news moves us, we could be no better off than we are right now. So this week you have to be ready for false breakouts and false breakdowns. There are so many inflection points close by in equities, bonds and the Forex markets, it is really no wonder that we have been in a chop fest for quite sometime.\r\n\r\nThe only thoughts that I can add are, that it is the same for everyone. Everyone looks at the same charts as we do day after day and I have no doubt that they are equally frustrated by the ranges that we are currently stuck within. The key is to be lighter on position sizes and ready to move. With this in mind we have to watch our lead indicators: -\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">GOLD</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">COPPER</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">WTi Crude Oil</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">U.S. 10-Year Treasury</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">S&amp;P</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">AUD/USD</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">USD/CAD</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">USD/SEK</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">And</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">USD/JPY with 6J index</p>\r\nBy watching these we will get a heads up, if they all follow suit and correlate the way they should we will get a move we want. If they fail to correlate this is what can cause a false breakout or false breakdown.\r\n\r\nDo not be complacent in any aspect of your trading at this time. You should only trade within your TRADING PLAN guidelines as per the examples I have written about and posted to the PREMIUM SERVICE trading essentials section of the website. You should at this time, trade smaller position sizes with stops in place that are within the guidelines of your TRADING PLAN. If my stops are too wide for you, reduce your position sizes to stay within your TRADING PLAN guidelines.\r\n\r\nTake care and good luck. Be careful with position sizes.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nSaturday April 26th 2014.\r\n\r\nEMAIL / FOLLOW ME AT:\r\n\r\ndrivethru@weeklyfxdrivethru.com\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\nGoogle+/scottpickering\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','CORRELATIONS DO MATTER…ESPECIALLY THE USD/JPY & SPX','','publish','open','closed','','correlations-matterespecially-usdjpy-spx','','','2014-04-26 12:16:39','2014-04-26 17:16:39','',0,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?p=3546',0,'post','',0),(3547,1,'2014-04-26 12:16:13','2014-04-26 17:16:13','<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>1. INTRODUCTION:</strong>\r\n\r\nA very interesting trading and news week\r\n\r\nThe tensions in the Ukraine created new low levels of diplomacy extremes between Russia and the U.S. At times, the verbal exchanges reminded me of an old Monty Python sketch but I do not want to create humour out of this serious situation. However, for a serving Secretary of State to say to his Russian counterpart and Putin, “carry on and it will have serious, serious, major implications”, is Pythonesque. It also reminds me of Eddie Murphy in Beverley Hills Cop telling his boss that he was going deep, deep, deep undercover!\r\n\r\nThat aside, the USD/JPY and USD/CHF are reacting to the on-going developing situation as the Mexican standoff moves to a more threatening stage. It does look like it could be a double whammy for those who are on the “Must long the USD/JPY” trip. Recent gains in the S&amp;P have not been matched by the USD/JPY and this usually says that if equities really commence a pullback or deeper correction the USD/JPY will drop faster than usual on the back of the fact it never moved up in line with equities when they were in rally mode. Should this be case, I could be short JPY for a while as many JPY pairs have potentially big moves ahead of them to the short side. Add to this worldwide unrest and the “safe-haven” is back in play.\r\n\r\nThe bottom line is “THE CHOP FEST CONTINUES”\r\n\r\nI am currently live in 15 trades….the vast majority of them are very small trades. I am trying to establish core positions from which to base longer-term trades from. I have just 2 trades that I would call close to full size, USD/CAD long and NZD/USD short, plus a mid level short trade in the AUD/USD. I am not worried about the current positions of my current live trades; my stops are well within my RISK MANAGEMENT and my TRADING PLAN guidelines. The only thing that is bugging me are the ranges that we are now stuck in. We really require a catalyst to jump-start the market. This would not only benefit (hopefully) my larger trade sizes, but would also in establishing my core positions. Until this happens, I have just have to be patient and wait.\r\n\r\nThis coming week we have some FED speak with Yellen, an FOMC statement and both ADP and Government Non-Farm payrolls. Hopefully these 4 news items between them will get the market moving. But having just written this, I think I may have said something similar last month.\r\n\r\nIf you are a new trader, please note, and I re-iterate that 83% of the live trades that I am currently trading are small positions. None of my trades are full-size. If you are a PREMIUM SERVICE subscriber you do not have to copy every trade that I am live with, the only thing I ask is that you manage your position sizes, and trade within your trade plan risk tolerance levels. The PREMIUM SERVICE website has examples of how to put together a TRADING PLAN and additional training material on the website shows you the content to add to your TRADING PLAN and why.\r\n\r\nThis is not a time to get carried away when you think that there is a breakout or breakdown. There are so many false moves right now, which is typical of a range bound marketplace.\r\n\r\nI welcomed a further 4 new PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers during the week. I want to mention again, that the vast majority of my PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers are happy just to receive the DAILY FX POST and this weekly blog and are not interested in Twitter. I have absolutely no problem with this approach at all, but please bear in mind there are only 24 hours in a day, I need sleep from time to time so I cannot answer emails or SKYPE messages immediately, nor do I look for Twitter conversations.\r\n\r\nI have to research, publish set-ups, trade myself, manage trades, tweet, blog and write additional articles for the PREMIUM SERVICE version of this blog, plus develop Broker relationships for the future as the PREMIUM SERVICE develops. In addition, I am also writing for LINKEDIN as well to several Forex groups. If it takes me an hour or so to respond to questions I apologize. I promise you I am busy but I will get back to you.\r\n\r\nFor the new traders to the PREMIUM SERVICE my TRADER TOPIC discussion this week is “LIVE ACCOUNT versus DEMO ACCOUNT”, I hope that you will find this useful.\r\n\r\nI had 3 responses to my webinar suggestion last week, so that project has been shelved due to lack of interest.\r\n\r\nFinally, the PREMIUM SERVICE income is still moving forward in these challenging trading times so I am very happy with that. I am slightly behind my personal income objective, but not too far. I have been taking reduced profits as I have been reducing my trade sizes and as a result my income per trade is lower than my target. However, even with a modification in trading style this month has been a tremendous month all things considered: -\r\n\r\nSingle micro lot trades on the 44 closed trades this month = $147.30\r\nSingle mini lot trades on the 44 closed trades this month so far =$1,473.00\r\nSingle standard lot trades on the 44 trades this month so far = $14,730.00\r\n\r\nI have already written a training topic called “TRADING WITH A FLEXIBLE MINDSET” for next weeks PREMIUM SERVICE blog. This is something that I deeply believe in and I have been using this over the past 8 weeks. In March, at the beginning, I found the transition in the way that the market behaved very difficult to get to grips with, however; recently I have come to terms with a slightly revised trading strategy that has produced the goods. The written section on mindset flexibility will be in next week’s blog for the PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers.<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>2. THE VIEW FROM MY TRADING DESK:</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>CORRELATIONS DO MATTER…ESPECIALLY THE USD/JPY &amp; SPX</strong></p>\r\nCorrelations do matter and, yes, they are important factors to consider when researching a trade, establishing the entry, the risk and the profit potential. However, at times traders have to trade when correlations are off, out of sync, or just not playing ball.\r\n\r\nRight now, one of the best correlations in the market is not playing…the USD/JPY and the S&amp;P (SPX index S&amp;P 500).\r\n\r\nOver recent weeks there has been market volatility and turmoil not seen for a long, long time. The S&amp;P rose 65 points in a day recently, then sold off 75 points and bounced back 55 points. These are not normal market conditions and these intra-day moves in the S&amp;P way off the normal.\r\n\r\nThis past week, we saw the S&amp;P rally to highs from a low retracement base that had been formed about two weeks ago that had been formed. From the low to the high point was about a 75-80% retracement. During the same period the USD/JPY managed just under a 50% retracement. The correlation is now off, for years this has been a parallel relationship. What is this telling me?\r\n\r\nIt is telling me that the S&amp;P is going to move downwards and that the USD/JPY is ready to move much lower.\r\n\r\nIt may take a while to do as one has to consider the JPY cross-rates in all of this: EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY, SEK/JPY, CAD/JPY and CHF/JPY to name the most popular.\r\n\r\nThe EUR (single currency) is incredibly strong right now but should the ECB and Draghi finally extract “the digit” and execute a full on QE (Quantitative Easing) programme with bank negative deposit rates, this would fuel the fire lower.\r\n\r\nThe Commodity currencies are under pressure already from their central banks (RBA, RBNZ) constantly quoting that exchange rates are at historic highs and cannot stay there for long. Therefore the downside pressure on the AUD and NZD is there. It is only equities that are holding them up.\r\n\r\nThe Swedish Central Bank is fighting deflation and the SEK is under pressure. The SEK is approaching an inflection point against the EUR and the USD, and if it breaks the SEK/JPY is a prime candidate for a move lower.\r\n\r\nShould the USD/JPY fall the commodity crosses will follow, AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY CAD/JPY and SEK/JPY.\r\n\r\nWhat is needed to start the process?\r\n\r\nJust a little bit of what drives the markets…this time not greed but FEAR.\r\n\r\nFEAR would hit the GBP currency very quickly as the UK is a heavily based Financial economy and if FEAR hits the GREEDMONGERS behind their desks, the “Pen Pushing”, “Desk Sucking” “Jotter-blotters” only know one course of action...that is sell and panic, “get me out at any cost, but look just get me out”.\r\n\r\nThe Ukraine / Russian tensions could be the catalyst. Rhetoric from some of the spokespersons involved is desperate to say the least, World War III has been introduced into the dialogue, and it’s not pretty.\r\n\r\nThe ECB may go into full-on QE.\r\n\r\nCross-rate effects are important, in particular if the GBP and EUR were primary candidates to influence the JPY because of their relationship to the US dollar index.\r\n\r\nEverything is linked…it just needs one move to set the ball rolling.\r\n\r\nCorrelations do matter and this one between the USD/JPY and SPX is a biggie and one that you have to seriously look at for the ramifications of its divergence.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>3. THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong>\r\n\r\nI make several references to the PREMIUM SERVICE during this blog. The reason for that is that the PREMIUM SERVICE blog is more detailed and contains more information that the free WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU version.\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber only service that provides my subscribers with the following: -\r\n\r\nTHE DAILY FX POST – this is a daily blog that goes directly to the secure subscriber area of the my website. This daily blog contains a brief overview of my thoughts each day on major FX news and reviews of key economic data. It also has trade set-ups for trades that are on my radar. I provide set ups for trades based upon three styles of trade, FLASH, RADAR or FUNDAMENTAL. This goal of this daily blog is to set traders up with a thought process for the day.\r\n\r\nTWITTER – an exclusive protected twitter feed. This adds to the DAILY FX POST throughout the following day and night with trade set-ups, updates and my thoughts on the market as it moves. If trades come into play I tweet them as my chart analysis is completed.\r\n\r\nTHE PREMIUM SERVICE BLOG – This is a more comprehensive review of the week just gone and the week ahead. It includes training sections and RADAR trades plus on going performance reviews of existing trades and my thoughts moving forward.\r\n\r\nTHE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS ONLY WEBSITE – This holds details of all trades, whether FLASH, RADAR or FUNDAMENTAL. Excel spreadsheets analyse the profit / loss performances all current trades and I also measure the year to date performances. The website also includes several sections containing training materials that are being added to weekly to provide traders with a comprehensive library of information. In the future, Webinars will be added and I am looking into a TRADER’s CHATROOM option, which would take the PREMIUM SERVICE on-line capabilities to the next level.\r\n\r\nIf this is something that interests you. If you go to the main website at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> on the welcome page on the top left you will see headings such as PREMIUM SERVICE, SPECIAL OFFERS and SIGN-UP all of these contain further information about the PREMIUM SERVICE and how to subscribe.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>There is now a low cost trial option of $20.00 for 4 weeks membership</strong></span>\r\n\r\nBelow there is a copy of the TRADING SUMMARY that PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers receive plus they have access to excel spreadsheets that detail trade by trade. These are in the PREMIUM SERVICE section of my website.<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>4. THE PREMIUM SERVICE - TRADING SUMMARY:</strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>RADAR, FLASH and FUNDAMENTAL TRADES</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>APRIL 2014 and YEAR to date:</strong>\r\n\r\nBelow I show the up to date performances for my various trading styles. Full excel spreadsheets are in the subscriber area of the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>RADAR TRADES – APRIL 2014…TO DATE:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>PROFITS FROM SINGLE LOT COMPLETED RADAR TRADES:</strong>\r\n\r\n1 x MICRO-LOT:\r\n\r\n12 trades at $0.10 cents each = $1.20 risk for $38.80 profit.\r\n\r\n1 x MINI-LOT:\r\n\r\n12 trades at $1.00 each = $12.00 risk for $388.00 profit.\r\n\r\n1 x STANDARD LOT:\r\n\r\n12 trades at $10.00 each = $120.00 risk for $3,880.00 profit.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>FLASH TRADES – APRIL 2014…TO DATE:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>PROFITS FROM SINGLE LOT COMPLETED FLASH TRADES:</strong>\r\n\r\n1 x MICRO-LOT:\r\n\r\n28 trades at $0.10 cents each = $2.80 cents risk for $98.70 profit.\r\n\r\n1 x MINI-LOT:\r\n\r\n28 trades at $1.00 each = $28.00 risk for $987.00 profit.\r\n\r\n1 x STANDARD LOT:\r\n\r\n28 trades at $10.00 each = $280.00 risk for $9,870.00 profit.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>FUNDAMENTAL TRADES – APRIL 2014…TO DATE:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>PROFITS FROM SINGLE LOT COMPLETED FUNDAMENTAL TRADES:</strong>\r\n\r\n1 x MICRO-LOT:\r\n\r\n4 trades at $0.10 cents each = $0.40 cents risk for $9.80 profit.\r\n\r\n1 x MINI-LOT:\r\n\r\n4 trades at $1.00 each = $4.00 risk for $98.00 profit.\r\n\r\n1 x STANDARD LOT:\r\n\r\n4 trades at $10.00 each = $40.00 risk for $980.00 profit.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>COMBINED FLASH, RADAR AND FUNDAMENTAL TRADES PROFIT PERFORMANCE</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>APRIL 2014…TO DATE:</strong>\r\n\r\nTRADING MICRO-LOTS:\r\n\r\n44 trades at $0.10 cents each = $4.40 risk for $147.30 profit.\r\n\r\nTRADING MINI-LOTS:\r\n\r\n44 trades at $1.00 each = $44.00 risk for $1,473.00 profit.\r\n\r\nTRADING STANDARD LOTS:\r\n\r\n44 trades at $10.00 each = $440.00 risk for $14,730.00 profit.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>COMBINED FLASH, RADAR AND FUNDAMENTAL TRADES PROFIT PERFORMANCE</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>TOTAL 2014…SO FAR:</strong>\r\n\r\nTRADING MICRO-LOTS:\r\n\r\n184 trades at $0.10 cents each = $18.40 risk for $350.80 profit.\r\n\r\nTRADING MINI-LOTS:\r\n\r\n184 trades at $1.00 each = $184.00 risk for $3,508.00 profit.\r\n\r\nTRADING STANDARD LOTS:\r\n\r\n184 trades at $10.00 each = $1,840.00 risk for $35,080.00 profit.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe above examples are for illustration purposes only:\r\n\r\nThe profitability examples detailed above are based solely upon single lot trading, regardless of lot type. If multiple lot sizes are traded the profitability margins will be different than those shown.\r\n\r\nJust to provide more information so you understand where I am coming from with the risk / reward statements above. All of my trades are of different sizes and different size lot types. The above does not reflect the actual trading performance, but it does show you the direction of the performance of the trades placed.\r\n\r\nI like to add to trades, profits are taken as the trade progresses and my overall cost average moves several times. All of my trades are of different lot styles. I trade a mixture of micro lots, mini lots and standard lots across my brokers.\r\n\r\nThe above results simply display your profit or loss if you placed a single lot trade on all the set-ups suggested and did nothing else.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>5. LOOKING FORWARD…THE KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3833.</strong> The past week has the ECB and Draghi talking up the rhetoric on the single currencies continued strength but not DEFLATION. QE and negative overnight ECB deposit rates have been talked about again. This has contained the EUR/USD to 1.3850. I was hoping for another run at 1.4000 to add to my existing short. Had the pair made this run I would imagine that Draghi would be wetting his pants desperate to get on the news wires once again to verbally intervene. So the next ECB Press Conference will be eagerly awaited and the rumours ahead of it at fever pitch. For now we are trapped in a tightening range 1.3750-1.3850.\r\n\r\n<strong>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.6793</strong>. I hate this pair at the moment. A few of my subscribers have tried getting short again the double / triple top whichever way you look at the charts….all to no avail. This pair just will not cave in and retreat back to the 1.6400 – 1.6500 area. It is well supported by the cross-rates, in particular, the GBP/AUD and GBP/NZD as they have been elevated of late and although not the full reason, these have been partially responsible for holding up the GBP. The other reason is the parallel relationship with the EUR. The EUR has not fallen so cable won’t either. I am looking at support at 1.6760 and resistance at 1.6840.\r\n\r\n<strong>AUD/USD: Closing Price 0.9267</strong>. The RBA stated once again that exchange rates are at historic highs and ever since there has been pressure on the AUD/USD. Unfortunately it has held up primarily because many traders and institutions are long trying to play out a measured move to 0.9500 on an inverted head and shoulders pattern. This is now invalidated and the pair seems to be ready to accept the fall. I am short looking to add below 0.9200.\r\n\r\nFor now support is at 0.9235 and resistance at 0.9320.\r\n\r\n<strong>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8574</strong>. One of my current largest trades right now is short the NZD/USD. There is huge support at 0.8550. If this gives way there are several trades and trade amendments due as per recent data in the PREMIUM SERVICE. Resistance is good at 0.8610.\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.1038.</strong> My other large position is long the USD/CAD. Whilst I am not concerned at present levels, as long as we are above the multi-year trend line support at 1.0850, trading the “loonie” is always fun. We are trying to break out of a tight range maybe this week will be the time. I have high hopes of mucho $$$ with this trade. For now however the immediate range that interests me is 1.0970 to 1.1060\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.8813</strong>. I am a nervous long with this pair, but my position size is small. Should tensions spill in Ukraine / Russia this is the European safe haven. We have held 0.8800 very well under several threats of late. We are once again above 0.8800. Key support should 0.8800 give way is at 0.8698 / 0.8700 and resistance is at 0.8875.\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/JPY: Closing Price 102.18. </strong>I have made several references to this pair throughout this blog. Not wanting to bore you with it all, all over again. Support is strong at 102.00 below there I suspect stops are between 101.80 and 101.90. If they get taken out in a huge fall, the next big support is 101.00. That gives way to - hello 100.00. Resistance is good at 102.80.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>6. MAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:</strong>\r\n\r\nSUNDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: JPY – BOJ Press Conference and Monetary Policy Statement.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – ADP Non-Farm Employment Change.\r\nWEDNESDAY: CAD – GDP.\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – FOMC Rate Statement.\r\nWEDNESDAY: CNY – Manufacturing PMi.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: USD – FED chair, Janet Yellen speaks.\r\nTHURSDAY: AUD – PPi.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: USD: - Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Rate.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>7. FINAL THOUGHTS:</strong>\r\n\r\nThere are some high profile news events this week that should get the markets moving along. We are still sitting in ranges at the moment in many different markets so unless the high profile news moves us, we could be no better off than we are right now. So this week you have to be ready for false breakouts and false breakdowns. There are so many inflection points close by in equities, bonds and the Forex markets, it is really no wonder that we have been in a chop fest for quite sometime.\r\n\r\nThe only thoughts that I can add are, that it is the same for everyone. Everyone looks at the same charts as we do day after day and I have no doubt that they are equally frustrated by the ranges that we are currently stuck within. The key is to be lighter on position sizes and ready to move. With this in mind we have to watch our lead indicators: -\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">GOLD</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">COPPER</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">WTi Crude Oil</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">U.S. 10-Year Treasury</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">S&amp;P</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">AUD/USD</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">USD/CAD</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">USD/SEK</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">And</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">USD/JPY with 6J index</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"></p>\r\nBy watching these we will get a heads up, if they all follow suit and correlate the way they should we will get a move we want. If they fail to correlate this is what can cause a false breakout or false breakdown.\r\n\r\nDo not be complacent in any aspect of your trading at this time. You should only trade within your TRADING PLAN guidelines as per the examples I have written about and posted to the PREMIUM SERVICE trading essentials section of the website. You should at this time, trade smaller position sizes with stops in place that are within the guidelines of your TRADING PLAN. If my stops are too wide for you, reduce your position sizes to stay within your TRADING PLAN guidelines.\r\n\r\nTake care and good luck. Be careful with position sizes.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nSaturday April 26th 2014.\r\n\r\nEMAIL / FOLLOW ME AT:\r\n\r\ndrivethru@weeklyfxdrivethru.com\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\nGoogle+/scottpickering\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','CORRELATIONS DO MATTER…ESPECIALLY THE USD/JPY & SPX','','inherit','open','closed','','3546-revision-v1','','','2014-04-26 12:16:13','2014-04-26 17:16:13','',3546,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/3546-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(3548,1,'2014-04-26 12:16:39','2014-04-26 17:16:39','<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>1. INTRODUCTION:</strong>\r\n\r\nA very interesting trading and news week\r\n\r\nThe tensions in the Ukraine created new low levels of diplomacy extremes between Russia and the U.S. At times, the verbal exchanges reminded me of an old Monty Python sketch but I do not want to create humour out of this serious situation. However, for a serving Secretary of State to say to his Russian counterpart and Putin, “carry on and it will have serious, serious, major implications”, is Pythonesque. It also reminds me of Eddie Murphy in Beverley Hills Cop telling his boss that he was going deep, deep, deep undercover!\r\n\r\nThat aside, the USD/JPY and USD/CHF are reacting to the on-going developing situation as the Mexican standoff moves to a more threatening stage. It does look like it could be a double whammy for those who are on the “Must long the USD/JPY” trip. Recent gains in the S&amp;P have not been matched by the USD/JPY and this usually says that if equities really commence a pullback or deeper correction the USD/JPY will drop faster than usual on the back of the fact it never moved up in line with equities when they were in rally mode. Should this be case, I could be short JPY for a while as many JPY pairs have potentially big moves ahead of them to the short side. Add to this worldwide unrest and the “safe-haven” is back in play.\r\n\r\nThe bottom line is “THE CHOP FEST CONTINUES”\r\n\r\nI am currently live in 15 trades….the vast majority of them are very small trades. I am trying to establish core positions from which to base longer-term trades from. I have just 2 trades that I would call close to full size, USD/CAD long and NZD/USD short, plus a mid level short trade in the AUD/USD. I am not worried about the current positions of my current live trades; my stops are well within my RISK MANAGEMENT and my TRADING PLAN guidelines. The only thing that is bugging me are the ranges that we are now stuck in. We really require a catalyst to jump-start the market. This would not only benefit (hopefully) my larger trade sizes, but would also in establishing my core positions. Until this happens, I have just have to be patient and wait.\r\n\r\nThis coming week we have some FED speak with Yellen, an FOMC statement and both ADP and Government Non-Farm payrolls. Hopefully these 4 news items between them will get the market moving. But having just written this, I think I may have said something similar last month.\r\n\r\nIf you are a new trader, please note, and I re-iterate that 83% of the live trades that I am currently trading are small positions. None of my trades are full-size. If you are a PREMIUM SERVICE subscriber you do not have to copy every trade that I am live with, the only thing I ask is that you manage your position sizes, and trade within your trade plan risk tolerance levels. The PREMIUM SERVICE website has examples of how to put together a TRADING PLAN and additional training material on the website shows you the content to add to your TRADING PLAN and why.\r\n\r\nThis is not a time to get carried away when you think that there is a breakout or breakdown. There are so many false moves right now, which is typical of a range bound marketplace.\r\n\r\nI welcomed a further 4 new PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers during the week. I want to mention again, that the vast majority of my PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers are happy just to receive the DAILY FX POST and this weekly blog and are not interested in Twitter. I have absolutely no problem with this approach at all, but please bear in mind there are only 24 hours in a day, I need sleep from time to time so I cannot answer emails or SKYPE messages immediately, nor do I look for Twitter conversations.\r\n\r\nI have to research, publish set-ups, trade myself, manage trades, tweet, blog and write additional articles for the PREMIUM SERVICE version of this blog, plus develop Broker relationships for the future as the PREMIUM SERVICE develops. In addition, I am also writing for LINKEDIN as well to several Forex groups. If it takes me an hour or so to respond to questions I apologize. I promise you I am busy but I will get back to you.\r\n\r\nFor the new traders to the PREMIUM SERVICE my TRADER TOPIC discussion this week is “LIVE ACCOUNT versus DEMO ACCOUNT”, I hope that you will find this useful.\r\n\r\nI had 3 responses to my webinar suggestion last week, so that project has been shelved due to lack of interest.\r\n\r\nFinally, the PREMIUM SERVICE income is still moving forward in these challenging trading times so I am very happy with that. I am slightly behind my personal income objective, but not too far. I have been taking reduced profits as I have been reducing my trade sizes and as a result my income per trade is lower than my target. However, even with a modification in trading style this month has been a tremendous month all things considered: -\r\n\r\nSingle micro lot trades on the 44 closed trades this month = $147.30\r\nSingle mini lot trades on the 44 closed trades this month so far =$1,473.00\r\nSingle standard lot trades on the 44 trades this month so far = $14,730.00\r\n\r\nI have already written a training topic called “TRADING WITH A FLEXIBLE MINDSET” for next weeks PREMIUM SERVICE blog. This is something that I deeply believe in and I have been using this over the past 8 weeks. In March, at the beginning, I found the transition in the way that the market behaved very difficult to get to grips with, however; recently I have come to terms with a slightly revised trading strategy that has produced the goods. The written section on mindset flexibility will be in next week’s blog for the PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers.<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>2. THE VIEW FROM MY TRADING DESK:</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>CORRELATIONS DO MATTER…ESPECIALLY THE USD/JPY &amp; SPX</strong></p>\r\nCorrelations do matter and, yes, they are important factors to consider when researching a trade, establishing the entry, the risk and the profit potential. However, at times traders have to trade when correlations are off, out of sync, or just not playing ball.\r\n\r\nRight now, one of the best correlations in the market is not playing…the USD/JPY and the S&amp;P (SPX index S&amp;P 500).\r\n\r\nOver recent weeks there has been market volatility and turmoil not seen for a long, long time. The S&amp;P rose 65 points in a day recently, then sold off 75 points and bounced back 55 points. These are not normal market conditions and these intra-day moves in the S&amp;P way off the normal.\r\n\r\nThis past week, we saw the S&amp;P rally to highs from a low retracement base that had been formed about two weeks ago that had been formed. From the low to the high point was about a 75-80% retracement. During the same period the USD/JPY managed just under a 50% retracement. The correlation is now off, for years this has been a parallel relationship. What is this telling me?\r\n\r\nIt is telling me that the S&amp;P is going to move downwards and that the USD/JPY is ready to move much lower.\r\n\r\nIt may take a while to do as one has to consider the JPY cross-rates in all of this: EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY, SEK/JPY, CAD/JPY and CHF/JPY to name the most popular.\r\n\r\nThe EUR (single currency) is incredibly strong right now but should the ECB and Draghi finally extract “the digit” and execute a full on QE (Quantitative Easing) programme with bank negative deposit rates, this would fuel the fire lower.\r\n\r\nThe Commodity currencies are under pressure already from their central banks (RBA, RBNZ) constantly quoting that exchange rates are at historic highs and cannot stay there for long. Therefore the downside pressure on the AUD and NZD is there. It is only equities that are holding them up.\r\n\r\nThe Swedish Central Bank is fighting deflation and the SEK is under pressure. The SEK is approaching an inflection point against the EUR and the USD, and if it breaks the SEK/JPY is a prime candidate for a move lower.\r\n\r\nShould the USD/JPY fall the commodity crosses will follow, AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY CAD/JPY and SEK/JPY.\r\n\r\nWhat is needed to start the process?\r\n\r\nJust a little bit of what drives the markets…this time not greed but FEAR.\r\n\r\nFEAR would hit the GBP currency very quickly as the UK is a heavily based Financial economy and if FEAR hits the GREEDMONGERS behind their desks, the “Pen Pushing”, “Desk Sucking” “Jotter-blotters” only know one course of action...that is sell and panic, “get me out at any cost, but look just get me out”.\r\n\r\nThe Ukraine / Russian tensions could be the catalyst. Rhetoric from some of the spokespersons involved is desperate to say the least, World War III has been introduced into the dialogue, and it’s not pretty.\r\n\r\nThe ECB may go into full-on QE.\r\n\r\nCross-rate effects are important, in particular if the GBP and EUR were primary candidates to influence the JPY because of their relationship to the US dollar index.\r\n\r\nEverything is linked…it just needs one move to set the ball rolling.\r\n\r\nCorrelations do matter and this one between the USD/JPY and SPX is a biggie and one that you have to seriously look at for the ramifications of its divergence.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>3. THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong>\r\n\r\nI make several references to the PREMIUM SERVICE during this blog. The reason for that is that the PREMIUM SERVICE blog is more detailed and contains more information that the free WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU version.\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber only service that provides my subscribers with the following: -\r\n\r\nTHE DAILY FX POST – this is a daily blog that goes directly to the secure subscriber area of the my website. This daily blog contains a brief overview of my thoughts each day on major FX news and reviews of key economic data. It also has trade set-ups for trades that are on my radar. I provide set ups for trades based upon three styles of trade, FLASH, RADAR or FUNDAMENTAL. This goal of this daily blog is to set traders up with a thought process for the day.\r\n\r\nTWITTER – an exclusive protected twitter feed. This adds to the DAILY FX POST throughout the following day and night with trade set-ups, updates and my thoughts on the market as it moves. If trades come into play I tweet them as my chart analysis is completed.\r\n\r\nTHE PREMIUM SERVICE BLOG – This is a more comprehensive review of the week just gone and the week ahead. It includes training sections and RADAR trades plus on going performance reviews of existing trades and my thoughts moving forward.\r\n\r\nTHE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS ONLY WEBSITE – This holds details of all trades, whether FLASH, RADAR or FUNDAMENTAL. Excel spreadsheets analyse the profit / loss performances all current trades and I also measure the year to date performances. The website also includes several sections containing training materials that are being added to weekly to provide traders with a comprehensive library of information. In the future, Webinars will be added and I am looking into a TRADER’s CHATROOM option, which would take the PREMIUM SERVICE on-line capabilities to the next level.\r\n\r\nIf this is something that interests you. If you go to the main website at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> on the welcome page on the top left you will see headings such as PREMIUM SERVICE, SPECIAL OFFERS and SIGN-UP all of these contain further information about the PREMIUM SERVICE and how to subscribe.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>There is now a low cost trial option of $20.00 for 4 weeks membership</strong></span>\r\n\r\nBelow there is a copy of the TRADING SUMMARY that PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers receive plus they have access to excel spreadsheets that detail trade by trade. These are in the PREMIUM SERVICE section of my website.<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>4. THE PREMIUM SERVICE - TRADING SUMMARY:</strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>RADAR, FLASH and FUNDAMENTAL TRADES</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>APRIL 2014 and YEAR to date:</strong>\r\n\r\nBelow I show the up to date performances for my various trading styles. Full excel spreadsheets are in the subscriber area of the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>RADAR TRADES – APRIL 2014…TO DATE:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>PROFITS FROM SINGLE LOT COMPLETED RADAR TRADES:</strong>\r\n\r\n1 x MICRO-LOT:\r\n\r\n12 trades at $0.10 cents each = $1.20 risk for $38.80 profit.\r\n\r\n1 x MINI-LOT:\r\n\r\n12 trades at $1.00 each = $12.00 risk for $388.00 profit.\r\n\r\n1 x STANDARD LOT:\r\n\r\n12 trades at $10.00 each = $120.00 risk for $3,880.00 profit.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>FLASH TRADES – APRIL 2014…TO DATE:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>PROFITS FROM SINGLE LOT COMPLETED FLASH TRADES:</strong>\r\n\r\n1 x MICRO-LOT:\r\n\r\n28 trades at $0.10 cents each = $2.80 cents risk for $98.70 profit.\r\n\r\n1 x MINI-LOT:\r\n\r\n28 trades at $1.00 each = $28.00 risk for $987.00 profit.\r\n\r\n1 x STANDARD LOT:\r\n\r\n28 trades at $10.00 each = $280.00 risk for $9,870.00 profit.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>FUNDAMENTAL TRADES – APRIL 2014…TO DATE:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>PROFITS FROM SINGLE LOT COMPLETED FUNDAMENTAL TRADES:</strong>\r\n\r\n1 x MICRO-LOT:\r\n\r\n4 trades at $0.10 cents each = $0.40 cents risk for $9.80 profit.\r\n\r\n1 x MINI-LOT:\r\n\r\n4 trades at $1.00 each = $4.00 risk for $98.00 profit.\r\n\r\n1 x STANDARD LOT:\r\n\r\n4 trades at $10.00 each = $40.00 risk for $980.00 profit.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>COMBINED FLASH, RADAR AND FUNDAMENTAL TRADES PROFIT PERFORMANCE</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>APRIL 2014…TO DATE:</strong>\r\n\r\nTRADING MICRO-LOTS:\r\n\r\n44 trades at $0.10 cents each = $4.40 risk for $147.30 profit.\r\n\r\nTRADING MINI-LOTS:\r\n\r\n44 trades at $1.00 each = $44.00 risk for $1,473.00 profit.\r\n\r\nTRADING STANDARD LOTS:\r\n\r\n44 trades at $10.00 each = $440.00 risk for $14,730.00 profit.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>COMBINED FLASH, RADAR AND FUNDAMENTAL TRADES PROFIT PERFORMANCE</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>TOTAL 2014…SO FAR:</strong>\r\n\r\nTRADING MICRO-LOTS:\r\n\r\n184 trades at $0.10 cents each = $18.40 risk for $350.80 profit.\r\n\r\nTRADING MINI-LOTS:\r\n\r\n184 trades at $1.00 each = $184.00 risk for $3,508.00 profit.\r\n\r\nTRADING STANDARD LOTS:\r\n\r\n184 trades at $10.00 each = $1,840.00 risk for $35,080.00 profit.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe above examples are for illustration purposes only:\r\n\r\nThe profitability examples detailed above are based solely upon single lot trading, regardless of lot type. If multiple lot sizes are traded the profitability margins will be different than those shown.\r\n\r\nJust to provide more information so you understand where I am coming from with the risk / reward statements above. All of my trades are of different sizes and different size lot types. The above does not reflect the actual trading performance, but it does show you the direction of the performance of the trades placed.\r\n\r\nI like to add to trades, profits are taken as the trade progresses and my overall cost average moves several times. All of my trades are of different lot styles. I trade a mixture of micro lots, mini lots and standard lots across my brokers.\r\n\r\nThe above results simply display your profit or loss if you placed a single lot trade on all the set-ups suggested and did nothing else.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>5. LOOKING FORWARD…THE KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3833.</strong> The past week has the ECB and Draghi talking up the rhetoric on the single currencies continued strength but not DEFLATION. QE and negative overnight ECB deposit rates have been talked about again. This has contained the EUR/USD to 1.3850. I was hoping for another run at 1.4000 to add to my existing short. Had the pair made this run I would imagine that Draghi would be wetting his pants desperate to get on the news wires once again to verbally intervene. So the next ECB Press Conference will be eagerly awaited and the rumours ahead of it at fever pitch. For now we are trapped in a tightening range 1.3750-1.3850.\r\n\r\n<strong>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.6793</strong>. I hate this pair at the moment. A few of my subscribers have tried getting short again the double / triple top whichever way you look at the charts….all to no avail. This pair just will not cave in and retreat back to the 1.6400 – 1.6500 area. It is well supported by the cross-rates, in particular, the GBP/AUD and GBP/NZD as they have been elevated of late and although not the full reason, these have been partially responsible for holding up the GBP. The other reason is the parallel relationship with the EUR. The EUR has not fallen so cable won’t either. I am looking at support at 1.6760 and resistance at 1.6840.\r\n\r\n<strong>AUD/USD: Closing Price 0.9267</strong>. The RBA stated once again that exchange rates are at historic highs and ever since there has been pressure on the AUD/USD. Unfortunately it has held up primarily because many traders and institutions are long trying to play out a measured move to 0.9500 on an inverted head and shoulders pattern. This is now invalidated and the pair seems to be ready to accept the fall. I am short looking to add below 0.9200.\r\n\r\nFor now support is at 0.9235 and resistance at 0.9320.\r\n\r\n<strong>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8574</strong>. One of my current largest trades right now is short the NZD/USD. There is huge support at 0.8550. If this gives way there are several trades and trade amendments due as per recent data in the PREMIUM SERVICE. Resistance is good at 0.8610.\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.1038.</strong> My other large position is long the USD/CAD. Whilst I am not concerned at present levels, as long as we are above the multi-year trend line support at 1.0850, trading the “loonie” is always fun. We are trying to break out of a tight range maybe this week will be the time. I have high hopes of mucho $$$ with this trade. For now however the immediate range that interests me is 1.0970 to 1.1060\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.8813</strong>. I am a nervous long with this pair, but my position size is small. Should tensions spill in Ukraine / Russia this is the European safe haven. We have held 0.8800 very well under several threats of late. We are once again above 0.8800. Key support should 0.8800 give way is at 0.8698 / 0.8700 and resistance is at 0.8875.\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/JPY: Closing Price 102.18. </strong>I have made several references to this pair throughout this blog. Not wanting to bore you with it all, all over again. Support is strong at 102.00 below there I suspect stops are between 101.80 and 101.90. If they get taken out in a huge fall, the next big support is 101.00. That gives way to - hello 100.00. Resistance is good at 102.80.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>6. MAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:</strong>\r\n\r\nSUNDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: JPY – BOJ Press Conference and Monetary Policy Statement.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – ADP Non-Farm Employment Change.\r\nWEDNESDAY: CAD – GDP.\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – FOMC Rate Statement.\r\nWEDNESDAY: CNY – Manufacturing PMi.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: USD – FED chair, Janet Yellen speaks.\r\nTHURSDAY: AUD – PPi.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: USD: - Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Rate.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>7. FINAL THOUGHTS:</strong>\r\n\r\nThere are some high profile news events this week that should get the markets moving along. We are still sitting in ranges at the moment in many different markets so unless the high profile news moves us, we could be no better off than we are right now. So this week you have to be ready for false breakouts and false breakdowns. There are so many inflection points close by in equities, bonds and the Forex markets, it is really no wonder that we have been in a chop fest for quite sometime.\r\n\r\nThe only thoughts that I can add are, that it is the same for everyone. Everyone looks at the same charts as we do day after day and I have no doubt that they are equally frustrated by the ranges that we are currently stuck within. The key is to be lighter on position sizes and ready to move. With this in mind we have to watch our lead indicators: -\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">GOLD</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">COPPER</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">WTi Crude Oil</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">U.S. 10-Year Treasury</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">S&amp;P</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">AUD/USD</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">USD/CAD</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">USD/SEK</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">And</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">USD/JPY with 6J index</p>\r\nBy watching these we will get a heads up, if they all follow suit and correlate the way they should we will get a move we want. If they fail to correlate this is what can cause a false breakout or false breakdown.\r\n\r\nDo not be complacent in any aspect of your trading at this time. You should only trade within your TRADING PLAN guidelines as per the examples I have written about and posted to the PREMIUM SERVICE trading essentials section of the website. You should at this time, trade smaller position sizes with stops in place that are within the guidelines of your TRADING PLAN. If my stops are too wide for you, reduce your position sizes to stay within your TRADING PLAN guidelines.\r\n\r\nTake care and good luck. Be careful with position sizes.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nSaturday April 26th 2014.\r\n\r\nEMAIL / FOLLOW ME AT:\r\n\r\ndrivethru@weeklyfxdrivethru.com\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\nGoogle+/scottpickering\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','CORRELATIONS DO MATTER…ESPECIALLY THE USD/JPY & SPX','','inherit','open','closed','','3546-revision-v1','','','2014-04-26 12:16:39','2014-04-26 17:16:39','',3546,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/3546-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(3552,1,'2014-04-26 13:20:25','2014-04-26 18:20:25','<section class=\"pdf-links\">\r\n<div class=\"one-third first\"></div>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/TRADING-WITH-ATRs.pdf\">TRADING WITH ATR\'s</a>\r\n<div class=\"one-third\"></div>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/HEDGING.pdf\">HEDGING</a>\r\n<div class=\"one-third\"></div>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/CREATING-A-TRADING-PLAN-3.0.pdf\">CREATING A TRADING PLAN</a>\r\n<div class=\"one-third\"></div>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/FOLLOWING-YOUR-TRADING-PLAN-.pdf\">FOLLOWING YOUR TRADING PLAN</a>\r\n<div class=\"one-third\"></div>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/PLANNING-YOUR-TRADES-2.0.pdf\">PLANNING YOUR TRADES (2.0)</a>\r\n<div class=\"one-third\"></div>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/MANAGING-RISK.pdf\">MANAGING RISK</a>\r\n<div class=\"one-third\"></div>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/STOP-PLACEMENT.pdf\">STOP PLACEMENT</a>\r\n<div class=\"one-third\"></div>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/MAXIMISING-PROFIT-POTENTIAL-BY-PROPERLY-SIZING-POSITIONS.pdf\">MAXIMISING PROFIT POTENTIAL BY PROPERLY SIZING POSITIONS</a>\r\n<div class=\"one-third\"></div>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/TRADING-AROUND-THE-NEWS.pdf\">TRADING AROUND THE NEWS</a>\r\n<div class=\"one-third\"></div>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/HANDLING-NEWS-WITH-AN-OPEN-POSITION.pdf\">HANDLING NEWS WITH AN OPEN POSITION</a>\r\n<div class=\"one-third\"></div>\r\n<div class=\"one-half first\">These resources are in PDF format that will allow for easy printing</div>\r\n<div class=\"one-third\"></div>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/LIVE-ACCOUNT-vs-DEMO-ACCOUNT.pdf\">LIVE ACCOUNT vs DEMO ACCOUNT</a>\r\n<div class=\"one-third\"></div>\r\n<div class=\"one-third\"></div>\r\n<div class=\"one-third\"></div>\r\n<div class=\"one-third\"></div>\r\n</section>','Trading Essentials','','inherit','open','closed','','2538-revision-v1','','','2014-04-26 13:20:25','2014-04-26 18:20:25','',2538,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/2538-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(3553,1,'2014-04-26 13:23:12','2014-04-26 18:23:12','<section class=\"pdf-links\">\r\n<div class=\"one-third first\"></div>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/TRADING-WITH-ATRs.pdf\">TRADING WITH ATR\'s</a>\r\n<div class=\"one-third\"></div>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/HEDGING.pdf\">HEDGING</a>\r\n<div class=\"one-third\"></div>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/CREATING-A-TRADING-PLAN-3.0.pdf\">CREATING A TRADING PLAN</a>\r\n<div class=\"one-third\"></div>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/FOLLOWING-YOUR-TRADING-PLAN-.pdf\">FOLLOWING YOUR TRADING PLAN</a>\r\n<div class=\"one-third\"></div>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/PLANNING-YOUR-TRADES-2.0.pdf\">PLANNING YOUR TRADES (2.0)</a>\r\n<div class=\"one-third\"></div>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/MANAGING-RISK.pdf\">MANAGING RISK</a>\r\n<div class=\"one-third\"></div>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/STOP-PLACEMENT.pdf\">STOP PLACEMENT</a>\r\n<div class=\"one-third\"></div>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/MAXIMISING-PROFIT-POTENTIAL-BY-PROPERLY-SIZING-POSITIONS.pdf\">MAXIMISING PROFIT POTENTIAL BY PROPERLY SIZING POSITIONS</a>\r\n<div class=\"one-third\"></div>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/TRADING-AROUND-THE-NEWS.pdf\">TRADING AROUND THE NEWS</a>\r\n<div class=\"one-third\"></div>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/HANDLING-NEWS-WITH-AN-OPEN-POSITION.pdf\">HANDLING NEWS WITH AN OPEN POSITION</a>\r\n<div class=\"one-third\"></div>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/LIVE-ACCOUNT-vs-DEMO-ACCOUNT.pdf\">LIVE ACCOUNT vs DEMO ACCOUNT</a>\r\n\r\n<div class=\"one-half first\">These resources are in PDF format that will allow for easy printing</div>\r\n<div class=\"one-third\"></div>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<div class=\"one-third\"></div>\r\n<div class=\"one-third\"></div>\r\n<div class=\"one-third\"></div>\r\n<div class=\"one-third\"></div>\r\n<div class=\"one-half first\"></div>\r\n<div class=\"one-half first\"></div>\r\n<div class=\"one-half first\"></div>\r\n</section>','Trading Essentials','','inherit','open','closed','','2538-revision-v1','','','2014-04-26 13:23:12','2014-04-26 18:23:12','',2538,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/2538-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(3628,1,'2014-05-06 07:05:14','2014-05-06 12:05:14','<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>A USD BLOODBATH:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nLooking at the markets it looks like the USD index could be at the start of a huge breakdown. The next trend line (240M CHART) support has given way and horizontal support lies at around 78.50. After this it could get ugly.\r\n\r\nIn the FX market the tight ranges have been blasted apart and what wrote about yesterday regarding the behaviour of the USD/JPY is <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>NOW</strong></span> in play. This currency to break the FX levels wide apart. The big momentum moves have taken place, pulling stops etc, but there has been no pullback.....we are consolidating. This would normally mean we will move again after a period of consolidation.\r\n\r\nLooking at the USD majors here are were I see todays moves, extending to maybe even further: -\r\n\r\nEUR/USD: 1.4000\r\nGBP/USD: 1.7000\r\nUSD/CHF: 0.8700\r\nUSD/CAD: 1.0850\r\nAUD/USD: 0.9400\r\nNZD/USD: 0.8850\r\nUSD/JPY: 101.20\r\n\r\nNo one is finding value in the USD at the moment...very, very shallow pullbacks if any. I think if the momentum starts again, these targets are possible and maybe even more. I do not think that this is a time to pick tops, but having said that shorting the EUR/USD at around 1.4000, just over to allow for stops could make sense intra-day.\r\n\r\nI have a few ideas and I will tweet these when I complete my chart analysis. I would like to enter on pullbacks to go in the direction of the momentum moves already seen, and it difficult I think on trading days like today to get a reasonable 45 minute pullback to make the entry.\r\n\r\nI think that we should also be aware that there are many big news events this week, and, we should not get carried away with too heavy a position initially. We can always add to profitable moves.\r\n\r\nI am thinking of small positions prior to the US equity open that can be added to and then review at the European close later.  Remember, US equities never go down and it is a Tuesday after all, as CNBC will no doubt state repeatedly over the next 7/8 hours.\r\n\r\nScott','#25 - THE DAILY FX POST, Tuesday 6th May 2014','','publish','open','closed','','25-daily-fx-post-tuesday-6th-may-2014','','','2014-05-06 07:05:14','2014-05-06 12:05:14','',0,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?post_type=member_posts&#038;p=3628',0,'member_posts','',0),(3555,1,'2014-04-28 06:38:14','2014-04-28 11:38:14','Good Morning,\r\n\r\nI hope everyone had a great weekend.\r\n\r\nWelcome to the new subscriber (DK) from the weekend!!\r\n\r\nRISK APPETITE is on this morning. U.S. futures are up. Asia was quiet last night and then the European M&amp;A activity  exploded USD weakness....\r\n\r\nSEK is lower this morning on the back of stronger retail sales. Remember that there is still deflationary talk about Sweden, so I am expecting this dip in the USD/SEK to be bought. If you are not already longer around 6.5100 may be a good opportunity area to get long.\r\n\r\nI am planning ahead at the moment, looking towards the U.S. jobs dat at the end of the week but FOMC on Wednesday so I am refining my RISK EXPOSURE. I have reduced my EUR exposure by taking off the table the EUR/NZD long (like I mentioned in the weekends blog) and reduced my huge position size in the NZD/USD short by 80%. I can always add back if I want to but its nice to always bank a load of $$$$ on a Monday morning. I fat fingered a close on my NZD/JPY short, but in the grand scheme of things I am annoyed with myself, but I will get over it.\r\n\r\nEUR/USD has filled the gap from 8 days ago. I think that we may go to 1.3950 before heading lower at that level I will add to my existing short position. At the same time I will add to my USD/CHF long. If the EUR/USD breaks 1.3900, we may get a squeeze. I am prepared for it, I half expected these two trades (EUR/USD &amp; USD/CHF) to go the wrong way so I have to live it.\r\n\r\nMy goal today is to hopefully see my AUD/USD trade in profit and I will reduce my position size, the same with the USD/CAD long, I am looking to take 50% off the table when / if it moves higher.\r\n\r\nI will tweet any new ideas, moves , amendments etc as the day progresses...Good Luck,\r\n\r\nScott\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','#19 - THE DAILY FX POST, Monday 28th April 2014','','publish','open','closed','','19-daily-fx-post-monday-28th-april-2014','','','2014-04-28 06:38:14','2014-04-28 11:38:14','',0,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?post_type=member_posts&#038;p=3555',0,'member_posts','',0),(3556,1,'2014-04-28 06:38:14','2014-04-28 11:38:14','Good Morning,\r\n\r\nI hope everyone had a great weekend.\r\n\r\nWelcome to the new subscriber (DK) from the weekend!!\r\n\r\nRISK APPETITE is on this morning. U.S. futures are up. Asia was quiet last night and then the European M&amp;A activity  exploded USD weakness....\r\n\r\nSEK is lower this morning on the back of stronger retail sales. Remember that there is still deflationary talk about Sweden, so I am expecting this dip in the USD/SEK to be bought. If you are not already longer around 6.5100 may be a good opportunity area to get long.\r\n\r\nI am planning ahead at the moment, looking towards the U.S. jobs dat at the end of the week but FOMC on Wednesday so I am refining my RISK EXPOSURE. I have reduced my EUR exposure by taking off the table the EUR/NZD long (like I mentioned in the weekends blog) and reduced my huge position size in the NZD/USD short by 80%. I can always add back if I want to but its nice to always bank a load of $$$$ on a Monday morning. I fat fingered a close on my NZD/JPY short, but in the grand scheme of things I am annoyed with myself, but I will get over it.\r\n\r\nEUR/USD has filled the gap from 8 days ago. I think that we may go to 1.3950 before heading lower at that level I will add to my existing short position. At the same time I will add to my USD/CHF long. If the EUR/USD breaks 1.3900, we may get a squeeze. I am prepared for it, I half expected these two trades (EUR/USD &amp; USD/CHF) to go the wrong way so I have to live it.\r\n\r\nMy goal today is to hopefully see my AUD/USD trade in profit and I will reduce my position size, the same with the USD/CAD long, I am looking to take 50% off the table when / if it moves higher.\r\n\r\nI will tweet any new ideas, moves , amendments etc as the day progresses...Good Luck,\r\n\r\nScott\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','#19 - THE DAILY FX POST, Monday 28th April 2014','','inherit','open','closed','','3555-revision-v1','','','2014-04-28 06:38:14','2014-04-28 11:38:14','',3555,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/3555-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(3557,1,'2014-04-29 06:43:42','2014-04-29 11:43:42','I hope that you are having a great trading session,\r\n\r\nThe Kiwi fall that I was thinking was going to happen did not materialize, and I think that today its a consolidation day. The big mover (of the USD majors) overnight was the USD/CAD which fell over 50 pips. This must be one of the most frustrating pairs in the FX market, what am I saying, right now they are all frustrating!.......but you know what I mean.\r\n\r\nThe Nordic trades are stationary.\r\n\r\nThe EUR/USD if it fills the gap at 1.3880, it will squeeze in my opinion.....so a test of 1.3950 could be on.\r\n\r\nToday, I have zero intention of adding positions. I am comfortable in most positions in play right now and with FOMC tomorrow plus the ADP U.S. employment data I think its best to sit tight and wait. This is a day to take off ranges are tight awaiting headline news.\r\n\r\nPlease be careful, these moves of 25-30 S&amp;P points up and down in a day is NOT NORMAL......TRADE WITH CARE.\r\n\r\nScott\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','#20 - THE DAILY FX POST, Tuesday 29th April 2014.','','publish','open','closed','','20-daily-fx-post-tuesday-april-29th-2014','','','2014-04-29 06:43:42','2014-04-29 11:43:42','',0,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?post_type=member_posts&#038;p=3557',0,'member_posts','',0),(3558,1,'2014-04-29 06:34:46','2014-04-29 11:34:46','I hope that you are having a great trading session,','#20 - THE DAILY FX POST, Tuesday April 29th 2014.','','inherit','open','closed','','3557-revision-v1','','','2014-04-29 06:34:46','2014-04-29 11:34:46','',3557,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/3557-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(3559,1,'2014-04-29 06:43:42','2014-04-29 11:43:42','I hope that you are having a great trading session,\r\n\r\nThe Kiwi fall that I was thinking was going to happen did not materialize, and I think that today its a consolidation day. The big mover (of the USD majors) overnight was the USD/CAD which fell over 50 pips. This must be one of the most frustrating pairs in the FX market, what am I saying, right now they are all frustrating!.......but you know what I mean.\r\n\r\nThe Nordic trades are stationary.\r\n\r\nThe EUR/USD if it fills the gap at 1.3880, it will squeeze in my opinion.....so a test of 1.3950 could be on.\r\n\r\nToday, I have zero intention of adding positions. I am comfortable in most positions in play right now and with FOMC tomorrow plus the ADP U.S. employment data I think its best to sit tight and wait. This is a day to take off ranges are tight awaiting headline news.\r\n\r\nPlease be careful, these moves of 25-30 S&amp;P points up and down in a day is NOT NORMAL......TRADE WITH CARE.\r\n\r\nScott\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','#20 - THE DAILY FX POST, Tuesday 29th April 2014.','','inherit','open','closed','','3557-revision-v1','','','2014-04-29 06:43:42','2014-04-29 11:43:42','',3557,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/3557-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(3562,1,'2014-04-30 07:10:41','2014-04-30 12:10:41','Good Morning,\r\n\r\nAs we head towards several major news events in the next day or so (listed below), given the markets tight trading ranges and the Chop Fest conditions, I am looking to exit a number of trades during the day.\r\n\r\nI am watching some trades just bounce around going nowhere, many of them are loss trades at the moment. I may just take 50% or 75% position sizes off the table, but most trades are already quite small.....but I just don\'t want the risk exposure. I will tweet the trades I remove or amend as I  review them.\r\n\r\nU.S.  - ADP\r\nCAD - GDP\r\nU.S. - FOMC\r\nCHINA - PMi\r\nGBP - PMi\r\nU.S. - Yellen and PMi and Unemployment Claims\r\nAUD - PPi\r\n\r\nAll of the above in the next 36 hours or so, prior to Non Farm Payrolls on Friday morning.\r\n\r\nI am not intending to add trades today, but, if something comes up I will take a look at it. I will intro-day (FLASH) trade if the opportunity arises, but my goal today is to fully review risk exposure. It all looks good and well within my TRADE PLAN guidelines but I can reduce size given the importance of the news on the horizon.\r\n\r\nTake care, if you are trading and I suggest smaller position sizes to limit risk.\r\n\r\nThe ranges are getting tighter and the EUR volatility is at 3 year lows. This means that there is breakout looming, so please do not caught and trade smaller.\r\n\r\nScott\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','#21 - THE DAILY FX POST, Wednesday 30th April 2014','','inherit','open','closed','','3561-revision-v1','','','2014-04-30 07:10:41','2014-04-30 12:10:41','',3561,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/3561-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(3583,1,'2014-05-02 05:45:37','2014-05-02 10:45:37','Good Day,\n\nA new day, a new month, a slow market, same old same old regards to extremes and the chop I suspect.\n\nYesterday, I cleansed my trades ahead of the FOMC and to be prepared ahead of NFP tomorrow.  I took some looses that I really should have have exited earlier, in particular on the Nordic currencies. Looking at the USD/SEK a few minutes ago, it looks like we have just had a weekly chart false breakout....yet another false move........\n\nToday, we have Janet Yellen, ISM Manufacturing PMi and Weekly Unemployment claims  as key market moving experiences...\n\nLook at the CAD.....we are seeing a return to CAD weakness and USD strength, in the USD/CAD pair. This is a lead indicator, keep your eyes on it. In particular the cross-rates. The EUR/CAD, GBP/CAD and NZD/CAD are all back up in your face again.  I was really expecting huge falls in these pairs.....\n\nThe AUD/USD is on lows of the days. I took a trade just before writing this article as follows: -\n\nAUD/USD\nShort at 0.9266\nStop Loss 0.9360\nLimit 0.8500\n\nThe AUD/CAD short RADAR trade triggered earlier and if the AUD/USD falls thru key / critical support at 0.9225..I am expecting the AUD/CAD to drop heavily again towards 1.0100.\n\nOther news: -\n<ol>\n	<li>GBP/USD got a lift on good data.  There is a Fibonacci confluence of extensions at 1.6920. If it re-tests that level that could be a great short opportunity. If you do not want to short GBP/USD, you could always go long the EUR/GBP instead.</li>\n	<li>NZD/USD has a double top around 0.8630. A break thru 0.8600 the measured move would be a short towards 0.8580. I am still short this pair ..so bring it on!!</li>\n	<li>Gold and Silver and Copper look under pressure</li>\n	<li>The USD index is on / near its lows at 79.40.</li>\n	<li>The Nasdaq is still under performing the DOW JONES and S&amp;P.</li>\n</ol>\nFinally, I was delighted to see that in April the PREMIUM SERVICE despite all the trading issues during the past 30 days actually made money. I hope that you guys are still keeping your heads above water also.\n\nI have included below a summary spread sheet of the month of APRIL and the YEAR TO DATE.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n&nbsp;\n\n&nbsp;\n\nIf you have problems understanding the above data, drop me an email to: -  premium service@weeklyfxdrivethru.com\n\nGood Luck and Trade Safe,\n\nScott\n\n&nbsp;','#22 - THE DAILY FX POST, Thursday 1st May 2014','','inherit','open','closed','','3579-autosave-v1','','','2014-05-02 05:45:37','2014-05-02 10:45:37','',3579,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/3579-autosave-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(3575,1,'2014-04-30 16:33:37','2014-04-30 21:33:37','','TRADING WITH A FLEXIBLE MINDSET','','inherit','open','closed','','trading-with-a-flexible-mindset','','','2014-04-30 16:33:37','2014-04-30 21:33:37','',0,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/TRADING-WITH-A-FLEXIBLE-MINDSET.pdf',0,'attachment','application/pdf',0),(3579,1,'2014-05-01 07:16:56','2014-05-01 12:16:56','Good Day,\r\n\r\nA new day, a new month, a slow market, same old same old regards to extremes and the chop I suspect.\r\n\r\nYesterday, I cleansed my trades ahead of the FOMC and to be prepared ahead of NFP tomorrow.  I took some looses that I really should have have exited earlier, in particular on the Nordic currencies. Looking at the USD/SEK a few minutes ago, it looks like we have just had a weekly chart false breakout....yet another false move........\r\n\r\nToday, we have Janet Yellen, ISM Manufacturing PMi and Weekly Unemployment claims  as key market moving experiences...\r\n\r\nLook at the CAD.....we are seeing a return to CAD weakness and USD strength, in the USD/CAD pair. This is a lead indicator, keep your eyes on it. In particular the cross-rates. The EUR/CAD, GBP/CAD and NZD/CAD are all back up in your face again.  I was really expecting huge falls in these pairs.....\r\n\r\nThe AUD/USD is on lows of the days. I took a trade just before writing this article as follows: -\r\n\r\nAUD/USD\r\nShort at 0.9266\r\nStop Loss 0.9360\r\nLimit 0.8500\r\n\r\nThe AUD/CAD short RADAR trade triggered earlier and if the AUD/USD falls thru key / critical support at 0.9225..I am expecting the AUD/CAD to drop heavily again towards 1.0100.\r\n\r\nOther news: -\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li>GBP/USD got a lift on good data.  There is a Fibonacci confluence of extensions at 1.6920. If it re-tests that level that could be a great short opportunity. If you do not want to short GBP/USD, you could always go long the EUR/GBP instead.</li>\r\n	<li>NZD/USD has a double top around 0.8630. A break thru 0.8600 the measured move would be a short towards 0.8580. I am still short this pair ..so bring it on!!</li>\r\n	<li>Gold and Silver and Copper look under pressure</li>\r\n	<li>The USD index is on / near its lows at 79.40.</li>\r\n	<li>The Nasdaq is still under performing the DOW JONES and S&amp;P.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nFinally, I was delighted to see that in April the PREMIUM SERVICE despite all the trading issues during the past 30 days actually made money. I hope that you guys are still keeping your heads above water also.\r\n\r\nI have included below a summary spread sheet of the month of APRIL and the YEAR TO DATE.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/TRADE-SUMMARY1-03052014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-3584\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/TRADE-SUMMARY1-03052014.png\" alt=\"TRADE SUMMARY1 03052014\" width=\"457\" height=\"414\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/TRADE-SUMMARY2-03052014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-3585\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/TRADE-SUMMARY2-03052014.png\" alt=\"TRADE SUMMARY2 03052014\" width=\"529\" height=\"418\" /></a>\r\n\r\nIf you have problems understanding the above data, drop me an email to: -  premium service@weeklyfxdrivethru.com\r\n\r\nGood Luck and Trade Safe,\r\n\r\nScott\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','#22 - THE DAILY FX POST, Thursday 1st May 2014','','publish','open','closed','','22-daily-fx-post-thursday-1st-may-2014','','','2014-05-02 05:49:44','2014-05-02 10:49:44','',0,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?post_type=member_posts&#038;p=3579',0,'member_posts','',0),(3580,1,'2014-05-01 07:16:56','2014-05-01 12:16:56','Good Day,\r\n\r\nA new day, a new month, a slow market, same old same old regards to extremes and the chop I suspect.\r\n\r\nYesterday, I cleansed my trades ahead of the FOMC and to be prepared ahead of NFP tomorrow.  I took some looses that I really should have have exited earlier, in particular on the Nordic currencies. Looking at the USD/SEK a few minutes ago, it looks like we have just had a weekly chart false breakout....yet another false move........\r\n\r\nToday, we have Janet Yellen, ISM Manufacturing PMi and Weekly Unemployment claims  as key market moving experiences...\r\n\r\nLook at the CAD.....we are seeing a return to CAD weakness and USD strength, in the USD/CAD pair. This is a lead indicator, keep your eyes on it. In particular the cross-rates. The EUR/CAD, GBP/CAD and NZD/CAD are all back up in your face again.  I was really expecting huge falls in these pairs.....\r\n\r\nThe AUD/USD is on lows of the days. I took a trade just before writing this article as follows: -\r\n\r\nAUD/USD\r\nShort at 0.9266\r\nStop Loss 0.9360\r\nLimit 0.8500\r\n\r\nThe AUD/CAD short RADAR trade triggered earlier and if the AUD/USD falls thru key / critical support at 0.9225..I am expecting the AUD/CAD to drop heavily again towards 1.0100.\r\n\r\nOther news: -\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li>GBP/USD got a lift on good data.  There is a Fibonacci confluence of extensions at 1.6920. If it re-tests that level that could be a great short opportunity. If you do not want to short GBP/USD, you could always go long the EUR/GBP instead.</li>\r\n	<li>NZD/USD has a double top around 0.8630. A break thru 0.8600 the measured move would be a short towards 0.8580. I am still short this pair ..so bring it on!!</li>\r\n	<li>Gold and Silver and Copper look under pressure</li>\r\n	<li>The USD index is on / near its lows at 79.40.</li>\r\n	<li>The Nasdaq is still under performing the DOW JONES and S&amp;P.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nFinally, I was delighted to see that in April the PREMIUM SERVICE despite all the trading issues during the past 30 days actually made money. I hope that you guys are still keeping your heads above water also.\r\n\r\nI have included below a summary spread sheet of the month of APRIL and the YEAR TO DATE.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/TRADE-SUMMARY1-06052014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-3565\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/TRADE-SUMMARY1-06052014.png\" alt=\"TRADE SUMMARY1 06052014\" width=\"444\" height=\"413\" /></a><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/TRADE-SUMMARY2-06052014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-3566\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/TRADE-SUMMARY2-06052014.png\" alt=\"TRADE SUMMARY2 06052014\" width=\"507\" height=\"415\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nIf you have problems understanding the above data, drop me an email to: -  premium service@weeklyfxdrivethru.com\r\n\r\nGood Luck and Trade Safe,\r\n\r\nScott\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','#22 - THE DAILY FX POST, Thursday 1st May 2014','','inherit','open','closed','','3579-revision-v1','','','2014-05-01 07:16:56','2014-05-01 12:16:56','',3579,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/3579-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(3586,1,'2014-05-02 05:49:44','2014-05-02 10:49:44','Good Day,\r\n\r\nA new day, a new month, a slow market, same old same old regards to extremes and the chop I suspect.\r\n\r\nYesterday, I cleansed my trades ahead of the FOMC and to be prepared ahead of NFP tomorrow.  I took some looses that I really should have have exited earlier, in particular on the Nordic currencies. Looking at the USD/SEK a few minutes ago, it looks like we have just had a weekly chart false breakout....yet another false move........\r\n\r\nToday, we have Janet Yellen, ISM Manufacturing PMi and Weekly Unemployment claims  as key market moving experiences...\r\n\r\nLook at the CAD.....we are seeing a return to CAD weakness and USD strength, in the USD/CAD pair. This is a lead indicator, keep your eyes on it. In particular the cross-rates. The EUR/CAD, GBP/CAD and NZD/CAD are all back up in your face again.  I was really expecting huge falls in these pairs.....\r\n\r\nThe AUD/USD is on lows of the days. I took a trade just before writing this article as follows: -\r\n\r\nAUD/USD\r\nShort at 0.9266\r\nStop Loss 0.9360\r\nLimit 0.8500\r\n\r\nThe AUD/CAD short RADAR trade triggered earlier and if the AUD/USD falls thru key / critical support at 0.9225..I am expecting the AUD/CAD to drop heavily again towards 1.0100.\r\n\r\nOther news: -\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li>GBP/USD got a lift on good data.  There is a Fibonacci confluence of extensions at 1.6920. If it re-tests that level that could be a great short opportunity. If you do not want to short GBP/USD, you could always go long the EUR/GBP instead.</li>\r\n	<li>NZD/USD has a double top around 0.8630. A break thru 0.8600 the measured move would be a short towards 0.8580. I am still short this pair ..so bring it on!!</li>\r\n	<li>Gold and Silver and Copper look under pressure</li>\r\n	<li>The USD index is on / near its lows at 79.40.</li>\r\n	<li>The Nasdaq is still under performing the DOW JONES and S&amp;P.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nFinally, I was delighted to see that in April the PREMIUM SERVICE despite all the trading issues during the past 30 days actually made money. I hope that you guys are still keeping your heads above water also.\r\n\r\nI have included below a summary spread sheet of the month of APRIL and the YEAR TO DATE.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/TRADE-SUMMARY1-03052014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-3584\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/TRADE-SUMMARY1-03052014.png\" alt=\"TRADE SUMMARY1 03052014\" width=\"457\" height=\"414\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/TRADE-SUMMARY2-03052014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-3585\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/TRADE-SUMMARY2-03052014.png\" alt=\"TRADE SUMMARY2 03052014\" width=\"529\" height=\"418\" /></a>\r\n\r\nIf you have problems understanding the above data, drop me an email to: -  premium service@weeklyfxdrivethru.com\r\n\r\nGood Luck and Trade Safe,\r\n\r\nScott\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','#22 - THE DAILY FX POST, Thursday 1st May 2014','','inherit','open','closed','','3579-revision-v1','','','2014-05-02 05:49:44','2014-05-02 10:49:44','',3579,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/3579-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(3588,1,'2014-05-02 07:10:20','2014-05-02 12:10:20','Good Morning,\r\n\r\nHere it is NFP (Non Farm Payroll) day...usually the biggest volatility day in the Forex calendar.\r\n\r\n<strong>OVERVIEW:</strong>\r\n\r\nMost indices and currency pairs are heading to the flat line or the mid point ahead of the data release. This is typical.\r\n\r\n<strong>TRADES:</strong>\r\n\r\nEUR/CAD &amp; GBP/CAD:\r\nI tweeted two trades yesterday with charts attached; EUR/CAD and GBP/CAD. At the time of writing this blog post, the EUR/CAD was on my entry level and the GBP/CAD was about 30 pips below. I will not enter these trades today unless NFP is favourable. I will tweet if I FLASH TRADE or set limit orders to FUNDAMENTAL TRADE these two trades.\r\n\r\nUSD/SEK:\r\nOn the Weekly chart we are below the trend line. As I mentioned yesterday, the previous upside move was a false breakout. If this pair gets above 6.5500 it may be interest again to the long side.\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\nBelow 1.6830 and this pair could very bearish, very quickly.\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\nThis pair is sitting very close to teen line support at 0.9250. A breakdown and a break thru 0.9225 would be very bearish for this pair. The AUD/NZD cross-rate effect is in play, keeping the AUD weak and the NZD strong.\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\nNeeds to drop below 0.8600 to get bearish.\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\nA false breakout yesterday. I was hoping that the double bottom measured move to 1.1020 would play out, but it was another false move. However, 1.0940 to 1.1020 is the range for me today.\r\n\r\nEUR/USD:\r\nThis pair has to break out sooner or later. I am hoping for the short side as I am currently in a short position. Watch the outer limits of the range for clues 1.3850 to 1.3920.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGood luck and take care today,\r\n\r\nScott.','#23 - THE DAILY FX POST, Friday May 2nd 2014','','publish','open','closed','','23-daily-fx-post-friday-may-2nd-2014','','','2014-05-02 07:11:31','2014-05-02 12:11:31','',0,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?post_type=member_posts&#038;p=3588',0,'member_posts','',0),(3589,1,'2014-05-02 06:00:51','2014-05-02 11:00:51','Good Morning,\r\n\r\nHere it is NFP (Non Farm Payroll) day...usually the biggest volatility day in the Forex calendar.\r\n\r\nOVERVIEW:\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nTRADES:\r\n\r\nEUR/CAD &amp; GBP/CAD:\r\nI tweeted two trades yesterday with charts attached; EUR/CAD and GBP/CAD. At the time of writing this blog post, the EUR/CAD was on my entry level and the GBP/CAD was about 30 pips below. I will not enter these trades today unless NFP is favourable. I will tweet if I FLASH TRADE or set limit orders to FUNDAMENTAL TRADE these two trades.\r\n\r\nUSD/SEK:\r\nOn the Weekly chart we are below the trend line. As I mentioned yesterday, the previous upside move was a false breakout. If this pair gets above 6.5500 it may be interest again to the long side.','#23 - THE DAILY FX POST, Friday May 2nd 2014','','inherit','open','closed','','3588-revision-v1','','','2014-05-02 06:00:51','2014-05-02 11:00:51','',3588,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/3588-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(3590,1,'2014-05-02 07:10:20','2014-05-02 12:10:20','Good Morning,\r\n\r\nHere it is NFP (Non Farm Payroll) day...usually the biggest volatility day in the Forex calendar.\r\n\r\n<strong>OVERVIEW:</strong>\r\n\r\nMost indices and currency pairs are heading to the flat line or the mid point ahead of the data release. This is typical.\r\n\r\n<strong>TRADES:</strong>\r\n\r\nEUR/CAD &amp; GBP/CAD:\r\nI tweeted two trades yesterday with charts attached; EUR/CAD and GBP/CAD. At the time of writing this blog post, the EUR/CAD was on my entry level and the GBP/CAD was about 30 pips below. I will not enter these trades today unless NFP is favourable. I will tweet if I FLASH TRADE or set limit orders to FUNDAMENTAL TRADE these two trades.\r\n\r\nUSD/SEK:\r\nOn the Weekly chart we are below the trend line. As I mentioned yesterday, the previous upside move was a false breakout. If this pair gets above 6.5500 it may be interest again to the long side.\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\nBelow 1.6830 and this pair could very bearish, very quickly.\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\nThis pair is sitting very close to teen line support at 0.9250. A breakdown and a break thru 0.9225 would be very bearish for this pair. The AUD/NZD cross-rate effect is in play, keeping the AUD weak and the NZD strong.\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\nNeeds to drop below 0.8600 to get bearish.\r\n\r\nUSD?CAD:\r\nA false breakout yesterday. I was hoping that the double bottom measured move to 1.1020 would play out, but it was another false move. However, 1.0940 to 1.1020 is the range for me today.\r\n\r\nEUR/USD:\r\nThis pair has to break out sooner or later. I am hoping for the short side as I am currently in a short position. Watch the outer limits of the range for clues 1.3850 to 1.3920.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGood luck and take care today,\r\n\r\nScott.','#23 - THE DAILY FX POST, Friday May 2nd 2014','','inherit','open','closed','','3588-revision-v1','','','2014-05-02 07:10:20','2014-05-02 12:10:20','',3588,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/3588-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(3591,1,'2014-05-02 07:11:31','2014-05-02 12:11:31','Good Morning,\r\n\r\nHere it is NFP (Non Farm Payroll) day...usually the biggest volatility day in the Forex calendar.\r\n\r\n<strong>OVERVIEW:</strong>\r\n\r\nMost indices and currency pairs are heading to the flat line or the mid point ahead of the data release. This is typical.\r\n\r\n<strong>TRADES:</strong>\r\n\r\nEUR/CAD &amp; GBP/CAD:\r\nI tweeted two trades yesterday with charts attached; EUR/CAD and GBP/CAD. At the time of writing this blog post, the EUR/CAD was on my entry level and the GBP/CAD was about 30 pips below. I will not enter these trades today unless NFP is favourable. I will tweet if I FLASH TRADE or set limit orders to FUNDAMENTAL TRADE these two trades.\r\n\r\nUSD/SEK:\r\nOn the Weekly chart we are below the trend line. As I mentioned yesterday, the previous upside move was a false breakout. If this pair gets above 6.5500 it may be interest again to the long side.\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\nBelow 1.6830 and this pair could very bearish, very quickly.\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\nThis pair is sitting very close to teen line support at 0.9250. A breakdown and a break thru 0.9225 would be very bearish for this pair. The AUD/NZD cross-rate effect is in play, keeping the AUD weak and the NZD strong.\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\nNeeds to drop below 0.8600 to get bearish.\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\nA false breakout yesterday. I was hoping that the double bottom measured move to 1.1020 would play out, but it was another false move. However, 1.0940 to 1.1020 is the range for me today.\r\n\r\nEUR/USD:\r\nThis pair has to break out sooner or later. I am hoping for the short side as I am currently in a short position. Watch the outer limits of the range for clues 1.3850 to 1.3920.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGood luck and take care today,\r\n\r\nScott.','#23 - THE DAILY FX POST, Friday May 2nd 2014','','inherit','open','closed','','3588-revision-v1','','','2014-05-02 07:11:31','2014-05-02 12:11:31','',3588,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/3588-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(3592,1,'2014-05-03 09:58:12','2014-05-03 14:58:12','&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>1. INTRODUCTION:</strong>\r\n\r\nThe roller coaster ride in trading the Forex market continues.\r\n\r\nI wrote today’s FUNDAMENTAL TRADERS OVERVIEW (The Premium Service),   or, THE VIEW FROM MY TRADING DESK (The Weekly Fx Drive Thru), towards the end of last week after a frustrating couple of trading sessions.\r\n\r\nWriting this article was pretty good timing really, given the week that has just gone by and especially after yesterdays events that followed the U.S. Non Farm Data release. I really do believe that many traders whether in equities / bonds / forex have either, just closed their accounts and given up, or, had their accounts wiped out. I have read so many articles over the past few weeks about how difficult it is to trade at the moment. I have been blogging about this matter since early March and, initially I thought it was just myself finding difficulty. But it appears many different traders are in the same boat. My “trading peers” group, as I call us, have all been on the same page for sometime, so I knew that something was up and it was not just me, but the articles that I have recently read are confirmation.\r\n\r\nYou can read what I think about it all later in this blog that you are reading, whether it be from the PREMIUM SERVICE or the WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU. For PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers I have also as promised included a section under TRADER TOPICS that deals with increasing your probabilities in trading.\r\n\r\nThis week’s blogs are 100% focused on how best to deal with a dysfunctional, chop fest of a market. As I constantly keeping writing and saying use your TRADING PLAN, PLAN YOUR TRADES but for now take smaller position sizes to limit risk. We are traders, but in essence we are RISK ASSESSORS and we apply RISK MANAGEMENT behavior to our day-to-day functionality.\r\n\r\nDespite the market shenanigans, the trading accounts related to the PREMIUM SERVICE still showed a profit from the trade set-ups in April. To say that I am delighted is an under-statement of huge proportions. My “trading peers” were basically flat on last month. Sounds good…but the drinks are on me!!\r\n\r\nI have updated the format of my reporting on the PREMIUM SERVICE trading performance, it is now linked to one of my computers through excel. If anyone has difficulty understanding the calculations, do not hesitate to contact me via email at either <a href=\"mailto:drivethru@weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">drivethru@weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> or <a href=\"mailto:premiumservice@weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">premiumservice@weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> I would be delighted to explain the calculations.\r\n\r\nComing up this week in the news that should be market moving for Forex traders, we have Interest Rate decisions and statements from the RBA, ECB and BOE plus the Yellen testimony and CAD and NZD Employment numbers, a busy week indeed. Get the Prozak, Jack Daniels plus a stress toy on the ready. Like everyone else I cannot predict what is ahead, but given the continued on-going developments between Ukraine and Russia, I would predict a bumpy ride for the foreseeable future…..enjoy!!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>2. TRADING SUMMARY:</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>RADAR, FLASH and FUNDAMENTAL TRADES</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>APRIL 2014 and YEAR to date:</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Below I show the up to date performances for my various trading styles. Full excel spreadsheets are in the subscriber area of the PREMIUM SERVICE.</p>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/TRADE-SUMMARY1-03052014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-3584\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/TRADE-SUMMARY1-03052014.png\" alt=\"TRADE SUMMARY1 03052014\" width=\"457\" height=\"414\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/TRADE-SUMMARY2-03052014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-3585\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/TRADE-SUMMARY2-03052014.png\" alt=\"TRADE SUMMARY2 03052014\" width=\"529\" height=\"418\" /></a>\r\n\r\nThe above examples are for illustration purposes only:\r\n\r\nThe profitability examples detailed above are based solely upon single lot trading, regardless of lot type. If multiple lot sizes are traded the profitability margins will be different than those shown.\r\n\r\nJust to provide more information so you understand where I am coming from with the risk / reward statements above. All of my trades are of different sizes and different size lot types. The above does not reflect the actual trading performance, but it does show you the direction of the performance of the trades placed.\r\n\r\nI like to add to trades, profits are taken as the trade progresses and my overall cost average moves several times. All of my trades are of different lot styles. I trade a mixture of micro lots, mini lots and standard lots across my brokers.\r\n\r\nThe above results simply display your profit or loss if you placed a single lot trade on all the set-ups suggested and did nothing else.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>3. THE FUNDAMENTAL TRADERS OVERVIEW:</strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>THE NEW NORMAL…WHAT IS NORMAL?</strong></p>\r\nI do not want to sound like a broken record by complaining continuously about how difficult it is to trade in the current market conditions, but it is my considered opinion after reading, watching and listening to lots and lots of financial data and financial experts….that the current Forex market is 100% dysfunctional and sucks!\r\n\r\nSince writing weekly blogs such as THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU, which, I started over two years ago, it has prompted me to research more, get more knowledgeable on fundamental world economic news events and also get more detailed with technical chart analysis. What does make me laugh a little at the moment is that none of that really counts to survive in Forex Trading at the present time.\r\n\r\nAlmost on a daily basis we see moves up and down by 20-30 S&amp;P points, this volatility is NOT normal, yet it has been something that we have been living with for week and after week after week. The “Chop Fest” that has been the Forex market makes it extremely difficult to trade. There are no real trends like we used to be able to latch onto. It is perilous at times.\r\n\r\nGeo-political news like the tensions in Ukraine/Russia are not dominating the Forex moves on a daily basis the way one might of expected. To a large extent the markets appear to ignore the tensions, as nowadays, there are no deployments of troops on the ground in war zones anymore. But every now and then the rhetoric does get a little out of hand and the Forex markets react. I look to GOLD to guide me and then look to the relationship that GOLD and the USD has, and nothing. GOLD doesn\'t necessarily rise on tensions, in fact I have seen it drop through support but the parallel relationship with the USD is no longer correlated. WTF?\r\n\r\nThe S&amp;P trades at highs and the AUD/USD and NZD/USD are falling. The S&amp;P around 1,900 is at all-time highs, yet the AUD/USD cannot get above parity. One would have thought that its correlation with the stock market would have seen the AUD/USD at 1.1600 or even higher. WTF?\r\n\r\nI can highlight more correlations out of sync, I have written about them in a many previous blogs and I do not want to repeat myself again. The bottom line is correlations are mostly off. We have diverging markets.\r\n\r\nGiven the market “Yo-Yo” / “Chop Fest”, I can guarantee you that the Forex market has lost many, many home based traders, whether full or part time. In addition, Equity traders will also be feeling the pinch as they have been on the “Buy The Dip” mode for the past six years ever since the financial crisis. This is the major problem of a one sided directional market, because as soon as it changes like it has more recently, the “Chop Fest” virtually negates buying the dip and some very long established traders are getting smashed / creamed.\r\n\r\nWhat is normal?\r\n\r\nWhen I started thinking about writing this three things immediately jumped out from the page and I thought, this will do as a start: -\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li>No Central bank Intervention.</li>\r\n	<li>No Quantitative Easing or equivalent.</li>\r\n	<li>Interest Rates actually go up and move down freely.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nI think one of the hardest things that all traders are trying to come to terms with is that U.S. Monetary Policy for the past 5 years changed with the introduction of “Tapering”. This did not have the immediate effect that I thought that it would have had, in particular, with USD strength coming through the markets. However, it has created jitters and huge uncertainty as equity markets grab all-time highs and the calls for an equity market pullback, or correction meant that buying at the highs has added to the “Chop Fest” scenario as we are seeing technical chart analysis at extremes. The Forex market is tightly range bound and all this added together with so many inflections points gives us what we have, which is a very volatile, “Chop Fest”.\r\n\r\nI want to remain a Forex Trader.\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>I have given myself the additional responsibility of adding THE PREMIUM SERVICE to my “job”.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>I describe myself as a Fundamental first then Technical swing trader / longer-term position trader.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>I select trade-set ups and post them to my subscribers. I have to my best ability tried to ensure even lower risk trades are suggested that will generate $$$.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nRight now, my trading style from above is out of the window. Like many other Forex traders I have to adapt and survive.\r\n\r\nI am a Scalper, a “Pull-Back” trader at best in these conditions, trying to be a swing-trader.\r\n\r\nThe 80 -100 pip profitable trades have in the main disappeared. I have had to lower my expectations to 20-30 pip trades. I have to exit before I would normally do so. There are hardly any trend trades. I no longer just look at the EUR/USD or USD/JPY. I have traded more exotic pairs in 2014 than the previous 7 years added together. I am adapting to the current normal…whatever normal now is?\r\n\r\nMy daily targets are severely reduced, in fact they are 50% of what I detailed in my TRADING PLAN goals and objectives.\r\n\r\nWhat I am in fact saying is “THE NEW NORMAL” is what it is at the time you research and place your trade.\r\n\r\nNormal is nothing…it’s all about adapting to what it is “NEW” at the time you place a trade.\r\n\r\nAs traders we cannot rely on anything for confirmation at the moment as so many parallels and correlations mean nothing.\r\n\r\nI remember writing not so long ago that the first thing I did in the morning was check “The Holy Trinity” (Gold, Copper and WTi), I still do but I no longer rely on them the way I used to as I am scalping or at best my longer term trades that I still try to let run are really based of the “Pullback Strategy”. Yes, I look at Fibonacci levels, and yes I look at pivot points to attempt to gain the best entry prices and yes, I do look at 100 and 200 day SMA’s. But they are less and less of real importance in comparison to six months ago.\r\n\r\nThe only things to add, that I consider the critical success factors to present day Forex trading survival…\r\n\r\nTRADE SMALLER POSITION SIZES.\r\n\r\nWIDEN YOUR STOPS TO ALLOW FOR THE CHOP FEST AND THE INCREASED VOLATILITY.\r\n\r\nUSE MULTIPLE MICRO LOTS TO GIVE YOU MORE FLEXIBILITY.\r\n\r\nUSE YOUR MONEY AND ACCOUNT MANAGEMENT PRINCIPLES TO ENSURE THAT YOUR ACCOUNT DOES NOT GET NEGATED.\r\n\r\nDO NOT GET HUNG UP ON THE USD MAJORS. LOOK AT THE COMMODITY CROSSES. THEY OFFER AN OPTION THAT CAN KEEP YOU INVOLVED WITH TRENDS SUCH AS THEY ARE BUT KEEP YOU OUT OF THE USD.\r\n\r\nCONSIDER THE NORDIC CURRENCIES AS AN OPTION, ALTHOUGH EUROZONE LINKED THEY ARE STILL TO A LARGE EXTENT DIRECTIONAL.\r\n\r\nPLAN YOUR TRADES AND TRADE YOUR TRADING PLAN.\r\n\r\nIF IN DOUBT, DO NOT COMMIT TO THE TRADE, STAY IN $$$. SOMETIMES THE BEST TRADES ARE THE ONES YOU WALK AWAY FROM.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>4. TRADER TOPICS:</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>TRADING WITH A FLEXIBLE MINDSET\r\nPARTS 1 and 2</strong></p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThis piece that I am including in this weeks blog, basically took on a life of its own as I was working on it. My whole idea of being flexible was initially based around avoiding getting caught up too much with the descriptions of bull or bear, bullish or bearish. As I approached the end, I found myself adding a section referring to todays trading specifics.\r\n\r\nI therefore decided to split the article into Parts 1 and Parts 2. I hope it makes sense.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>PART 1 (BULL or BEAR):</strong></span>\r\n\r\nTrading with a flexible mindset is a critical skill that all traders must learn. While this may seem elementary, consider just how often you hear the media label a trader, a firm or even themselves as a “bull or a “bear”. From my perspective this makes little sense within the Forex market.\r\n\r\nLet’s say that you considered yourself to be a “bull” for the USD, or in other words you think that the USD will rise in the future. To me it’s a vague definition. Does it mean that you think that the USD will rise forever? Will it just be for a week? Will it only go up if the pair you are looking at first drops one hundred pips to a line of support? Without more details in one’s opinion, stating that someone is “bullish” doesn’t give away much information.\r\n\r\nHowever, I sometimes fall into this trap myself, I will say occasionally that I am bullish for a given currency pair without further explanation. This is in my opinion an overstatement and vague. The reason is that I have formed an opinion before I analyze the facts.\r\n\r\ne.g.\r\n\r\nI am a Premier League Soccer/ Football fan and my team is Everton. Because, I always want Everton to win so badly (similar to someone holding a long position wanting the pair to rise), I find myself irrationally thinking that Everton are better than they actually are. So even though I know my bias changes my opinion, I simply cannot help myself.\r\n\r\nHowever in trading there is a lot more on the line. If you have a general opinion before you actually analyze the current situation, then you are viewing the information without the benefit of a rational mindset. This may seem quite strange to hear, but it is true.\r\n\r\nDo not misunderstand me, if you have a current opinion that a currency pair is likely to behave in a certain way due to your analysis, that is fine. But many traders form open-ended opinions on currency pairs and then try to find analysis that fits around that opinion. Let’s say you consider yourself to be generally bullish on the EUR/USD. The reason for this is that you think the Euro “looks better” than the dollar.\r\n\r\nBasically, I am saying that if you are going to trade successfully you must evaluate and review facts yourself and be flexible at all times. Researching and analyzing your trade and picking the entry based upon trading strategy and assessing the risks involved are all vitally important aspects of trading.\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, if you label yourself as a bull or a bear you take away the flexibility of trading based on the facts that are in front of you at any given time, unless those facts support your decision to be “bullish” or “bearish” a particular pair.\r\n\r\nI like to think that I am NOT a trader but a RISK ASSESSEMENT manager. I look at the RISKS and check them before I place the trade. It is a discipline worth having, and whilst it might sound like overkill, it’s better to be over-cautious than flippant. Once your trading account is dry…that\'s it.\r\n\r\nIts all common sense really, trading currencies is not rocket science, it is about being able to assemble thoughts, analyze charts and implement a set of strategies and work within a TRADING PLAN with good MONEY and RISK MANAGEMENT disciplines.<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>PART 2 (SOME THOUGHTS ON TRADING TO-DAY):</strong></span>\r\n\r\nA FEW TIPS FOR THIS MARKET\r\n\r\nTRADING WITH A FLEXIBLE MINDSET has taken on a whole new meaning of late and I want to elaborate with a few paragraphs.\r\n\r\nThe Current Forex market is a volatile Chop Fest where even the most experienced traders are being caught out on the wrong sides of trades and traders’ accounts are being squeezed.\r\n\r\nBeing flexible in your approach is vital to trading success today.\r\nVARIABLE LOT SIZES:\r\n\r\nWhen I first started trading I traded standard lot sizes only. The broker said this is the way to go. What utter bulls**t, I left that broker and found a more real world one that I am still with today 7 years later. I moved from a standard lot account to a mini lot account. If I want to trade a standard lot I just trade 10 mini lots…easy.\r\n\r\nNow I have five brokers; two are mini lot only and the other three are micro, mini and standard lots. This now gives me the ultimate flexibility of trade sizes. I can add to or remove partial trade sizes whenever I want. This gives me 100% flexibility.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nPOSITION SIZES AND WIDER STOPS:\r\n\r\nToday, I would trade with smaller position sizes. Use the advantage of micro, mini and standard lot combinations but trade smaller in this period of volatility. Secondly, because of the market volatility place your stops a little wider away, but remain within your TRADE PLAN guidelines.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nDO NOT BE AFRAID TO TAKE LOSSES:\r\n\r\nThis market sucks!\r\n\r\nDo not allow trades to get away from you. Do not be afraid to bank losses. Losses are a part of trading everyone has them.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nIF THE MARKET CHANGES BANK THE CASH:\r\n\r\nIn today’s volatility, if you are in profit and you see your profits start to erode, start to be aggressive in removing part of your position size and moving stops to break even.\r\n\r\nMove stops to break even to protect yourself quicker than maybe you used to. Take profits off the table. Remember, it’s better to bank some $$$ than nothing at all.\r\n\r\nThere are no prizes for “woulda coulda shoulda”. Right now as traders we have to be lean, quick and efficient.\r\n\r\nAgain, it’s all about applying common sense.\r\n\r\nTRADING WITH A FLEXIBLE MINDSET covers all aspects of your trading. It is essential to a trader’s success.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>5. MY CURRENT LIVE TRADES:</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>FLASH TRADES:</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">I am in several positions and I am not 100% happy with them all but many positions are very small position sizes that I do not mind holding. I am maybe too optimistic that I will engineer my way out of these poorer trades but my RISK MANAGEMENT is still 100%.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>FT69</strong>\r\n<strong> USD/CAD</strong>\r\n<strong>Long</strong>\r\n<strong>Cost Average / Entry Level: 1.1061</strong>\r\n<strong>Stop Loss: 1.0850</strong>\r\n<strong>Limit / Target: 1.1600</strong>\r\n<strong>Weekly Closing Price: 1.0972</strong>\r\n<strong>Position: -89 pips</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>FT73</strong>\r\n<strong> USD/CHF</strong>\r\n<strong>Long</strong>\r\n<strong>Cost Average / Entry Level: 0.8937</strong>\r\n<strong>Stop Loss: 0.8800</strong>\r\n<strong>Limit / Target: 0.9250</strong>\r\n<strong>Weekly Closing Price: 0.8778</strong>\r\n<strong>Position: -159 pips </strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>FT77</strong>\r\n<strong>EUR/USD</strong>\r\n<strong>Short</strong>\r\n<strong>Cost Average / Entry Level: 1.3744</strong>\r\n<strong>Stop Loss: 1.3950</strong>\r\n<strong>Limit / Target: 1.3450</strong>\r\n<strong>Weekly Closing Price: 1.3873</strong>\r\n<strong>Position: -129 pips</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>FT107</strong>\r\n<strong>NZD/USD</strong>\r\n<strong>Short</strong>\r\n<strong>Cost Average / Entry Level: 0.8533</strong>\r\n<strong>Stop Loss: 0.8750</strong>\r\n<strong>Limit / Target: 0.8400</strong>\r\n<strong>Weekly Closing Price: 0.8655</strong>\r\n<strong>Position: -122 pips</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong> </strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>RADAR TRADES:</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>RT67</strong>\r\n<strong> NZD/CAD</strong>\r\n<strong> Short:</strong>\r\n<strong> Entry / Cost Average: 0.9380</strong>\r\n<strong> Stop Loss: 0.9520</strong>\r\n<strong> Target / Limit: 0.8000</strong>\r\n<strong>Weekly Closing Price: 0.9494</strong>\r\n<strong>Position -114 pips</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>FUNDAMENTAL TRADES:</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>FUN14</strong>\r\n<strong> GBP/NZD</strong>\r\n<strong> (This trade is hedged from -150 pips)</strong>\r\n<strong>Long</strong>\r\n<strong>Cost Average: 1.9950</strong>\r\n<strong>Stop Loss: 1.9000</strong>\r\n<strong>Limit / Target: 2.2350</strong>\r\n<strong>Weekly Closing Price: 1.9438</strong>\r\n<strong>Position: - 512 pips</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong> </strong></p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>6. TRADES THAT ARE ON MY RADAR:</strong>\r\n\r\nDue to Ukraine / Russian tensions I am not looking to add any trades over this weekend. I will give my thoughts on Monday morning after the U.S. equity market has opened via THE DAILY FX POST.\r\n\r\nSuffice to say, the movements in the Forex market are at the moment dysfunctional to say the least. I have enough risk on the table with my current live trades and I do not want to take on any additional risk.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">I put forward two trades last week on Twitter; EUR/CAD and GBP/CAD long. I am still bullish the Canadian $ and both of these trades are within my initial guidelines for entry. The EUR/CAD closed at 1.5221 and GBP/CAD at 1.8508. My original set-ups are below: -</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>EUR/CAD</strong>\r\n<strong> Long at 1.5200</strong>\r\n<strong> Stop Loss 1.4950</strong>\r\n<strong>Target / Limit 1.5600</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong> GBP/CAD</strong>\r\n<strong>Long at 1.8520</strong>\r\n<strong>Stop Loss 1.8350</strong>\r\n<strong>Target / Limit 1.8950</strong></p>\r\nI would wait until we set how the weekend plays out with the tensions around the globe and the politician sound-bytes that will no doubt be aired in Sunday’s press and on TV.\r\n\r\nAs I wrote a few weeks ago, and I still think it now, the commodity crosses offer some of the best trading opportunities moving forward but right now I believe it is EXTREME CAUTION time.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>7. LOOKING FORWARD…THE KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3873.</strong> Despite all the rhetoric and verbal intervention by the ECB we remain in the range that has contained the EUR/USD for seems like an eternity. This Thursday we have the Draghi roadshow, with an ECB interest rate decision and press conference. Something in my brain tells me that despite long lines of unemployed people in many Eurozone countries and DEFLATION worries all over the Eurozone, the ECB will not act…they will simply kick another can down the road. I want to be wrong, but the ECB history on economic matters is 100% reactive, 0% proactive.\r\nThe range that we are being held captive in is 1.3750 to 1.3950.\r\n\r\n<strong>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.6868</strong>. This pair looks like a 1.7000 test is on the cards. Yesterday, after the blowout NFP data it fell to support at 1.6830 and bounced. We are in a tight range with this pair 1.6830 to 1.6920.Having spoken with many of you (PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers) you like me are 100% engaged on the shenanigans of trading the cable. If you do not want to trade the GBP/USD trade the EUR/GBP instead.\r\n\r\n<strong>AUD/USD: Closing Price 0.9276</strong>. Big AUD news on the horizon this week, several market moving events. We closed last week pretty much unchanged from the previous week. I am now more bearish the AUD/USD, but I want to hear and read what the RBA release to the markets this week before getting myself committed one way or another, I want review MY PROBABILITIES!. The range is 0.9200 to 0.9315.\r\n\r\n<strong>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8655</strong>. I hate the Kiwi currency. Of all the currencies that I look at each day it is the one most affected by cross-rates. The AUD/NZD is repositioning itself lower and as a result the AUD drops and the NZD strengthens. My only happy thought on the NZD/USD is that it is well regarded as the most over-extended, over-valued currency in the Forex market and as such it is setting itself up for a major fall from these lofty heights. This despite what RBNZ Wheeler might say. Remember Wheeler says something with one hand and says the opposite with the other. He kind of wants his cake and to eat it at the same time. The range that I am now considering is wider than the initial range that has contained the pair recently. I think that this pair is the classic false breakout / breakdown currency pair. My range is 0.8500 to 0.8750.\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.0972.</strong> Talk about a currency pair that cannot make its mind up whether it is moving lower or higher. The good thing is for people like myself who are long is that it has held up fairly well. Major trend line support is at 1.0850. This is a multi year trend line and as long as we are above this I am bullish. The range is 1.0940 to 1.1060.\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.8778</strong>. After NFP yesterday we rose 40 pips and gave back 55 pips. I am a nervous long with this pair, but my position size is small. Should tensions spill in Ukraine / Russia this is the European safe haven. I am concerned that we may fall to 0.8500 before getting a firm footing to bounce. We are now below 0.8800 once again. The next line in the sand is support at 0.8695. I will not get excited as a long side trader of this pair until we break through 0.8870.<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/JPY: Closing Price 102.18. </strong>The closing price unchanged from last weeks’ close, this pair to me looks like its about to fall off a cliff. Support is strong at 102.00 below there I suspect stops are between 101.80 and 101.90. If they get taken out in a huge fall, the next big support is 101.00. Resistance is good at 102.80.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>8. MAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:</strong>\r\n\r\nSUNDAY: CNY – HSBC Manufacturing PMi.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: AUD – RBA Rate Statement, Cash Rate and Annual Budget\r\nTUESDAY: CAD – Trade balance and IVEY PMi.\r\nTUESDAY: NZD - Employment Change and Employment Rate.\r\nTUESDAY: AUD – Retail Sales.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – Janet Yellen Testimony.\r\nWEDNESDAY: AUD – Employment Change and Unemployment Rate.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: GBP – BOE Bank Rate.\r\nTHURSDAY: EUR – Interest Rate and Press Conference.\r\nTHURSDAY: AUD – RBA Monetary Policy Statement.\r\nTHURSDAY: CNY – CPi.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: CAD: - Employment Change and Unemployment Rate.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>9. FINAL THOUGHTS:</strong>\r\n\r\nDespite a very volatile move last Friday following Non Farm Payrolls release in the U.S. we are still range bound with most of the Forex market.\r\n\r\nThere are some high profile news events this week that should get the markets moving along. We are still sitting in ranges at the moment in many different markets so unless the high profile news moves us, we could be no better off than we are right now. So this week you have to be ready for false breakouts and false breakdowns. There are so many inflection points close by in equities, bonds and the Forex markets, it is really no wonder that we have been in a chop fest for quite sometime.\r\n\r\nThe only thoughts that I can add are, that it is the same for everyone. Everyone looks at the same charts as we do day after day and I have no doubt that they are equally frustrated by the ranges that we are currently stuck within. The key is to be lighter on position sizes and ready to move. With this in mind we have to watch our lead indicators: -\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>GOLD</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>COPPER</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>WTi Crude Oil</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>U.S. 10-Year Treasury</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>S&amp;P</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>AUD/USD</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>USD/CAD</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>USD/SEK</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>And</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>USD/JPY with 6J index</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong> </strong></p>\r\nBy watching these we will get a heads up, if they all follow suit and correlate the way they should we will get a move we want. If they fail to correlate this is what can cause a false breakout or false breakdown.\r\n\r\nDo not be complacent in any aspect of your trading at this time. You should only trade within your TRADING PLAN guidelines as per the examples I have written about and posted to the PREMIUM SERVICE trading essentials section of the website. You should at this time, trade smaller position sizes with stops in place that are within the guidelines of your TRADING PLAN. If my stops are too wide for you, reduce your position sizes to stay within your TRADING PLAN guidelines.\r\n\r\nTake care and good luck. Be careful with position sizes.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nSaturday May 3rd 2014\r\n\r\nEMAIL / FOLLOW ME AT:\r\npremiumservice@weeklyfxdrivethru.com\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\nTwitter: @ThePremService\r\nGoogle+/scottpickering\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','THE NEW NORMAL…WHAT IS NORMAL?','','publish','open','closed','','new-normalwhat-normal','','','2014-05-03 09:59:39','2014-05-03 14:59:39','',0,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?post_type=member_posts&#038;p=3592',0,'member_posts','',0),(3593,1,'2014-05-03 09:58:12','2014-05-03 14:58:12','&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>1. INTRODUCTION:</strong>\r\n\r\nThe roller coaster ride in trading the Forex market continues.\r\n\r\nI wrote today’s FUNDAMENTAL TRADERS OVERVIEW (The Premium Service),   or, THE VIEW FROM MY TRADING DESK (The Weekly Fx Drive Thru), towards the end of last week after a frustrating couple of trading sessions.\r\n\r\nWriting this article was pretty good timing really, given the week that has just gone by and especially after yesterdays events that followed the U.S. Non Farm Data release. I really do believe that many traders whether in equities / bonds / forex have either, just closed their accounts and given up, or, had their accounts wiped out. I have read so many articles over the past few weeks about how difficult it is to trade at the moment. I have been blogging about this matter since early March and, initially I thought it was just myself finding difficulty. But it appears many different traders are in the same boat. My “trading peers” group, as I call us, have all been on the same page for sometime, so I knew that something was up and it was not just me, but the articles that I have recently read are confirmation.\r\n\r\nYou can read what I think about it all later in this blog that you are reading, whether it be from the PREMIUM SERVICE or the WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU. For PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers I have also as promised included a section under TRADER TOPICS that deals with increasing your probabilities in trading.\r\n\r\nThis week’s blogs are 100% focused on how best to deal with a dysfunctional, chop fest of a market. As I constantly keeping writing and saying use your TRADING PLAN, PLAN YOUR TRADES but for now take smaller position sizes to limit risk. We are traders, but in essence we are RISK ASSESSORS and we apply RISK MANAGEMENT behavior to our day-to-day functionality.\r\n\r\nDespite the market shenanigans, the trading accounts related to the PREMIUM SERVICE still showed a profit from the trade set-ups in April. To say that I am delighted is an under-statement of huge proportions. My “trading peers” were basically flat on last month. Sounds good…but the drinks are on me!!\r\n\r\nI have updated the format of my reporting on the PREMIUM SERVICE trading performance, it is now linked to one of my computers through excel. If anyone has difficulty understanding the calculations, do not hesitate to contact me via email at either <a href=\"mailto:drivethru@weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">drivethru@weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> or <a href=\"mailto:premiumservice@weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">premiumservice@weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> I would be delighted to explain the calculations.\r\n\r\nComing up this week in the news that should be market moving for Forex traders, we have Interest Rate decisions and statements from the RBA, ECB and BOE plus the Yellen testimony and CAD and NZD Employment numbers, a busy week indeed. Get the Prozak, Jack Daniels plus a stress toy on the ready. Like everyone else I cannot predict what is ahead, but given the continued on-going developments between Ukraine and Russia, I would predict a bumpy ride for the foreseeable future…..enjoy!!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>2. TRADING SUMMARY:</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>RADAR, FLASH and FUNDAMENTAL TRADES</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>APRIL 2014 and YEAR to date:</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">\r\nBelow I show the up to date performances for my various trading styles. Full excel spreadsheets are in the subscriber area of the PREMIUM SERVICE.</p>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/TRADE-SUMMARY1-03052014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-3584\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/TRADE-SUMMARY1-03052014.png\" alt=\"TRADE SUMMARY1 03052014\" width=\"457\" height=\"414\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/TRADE-SUMMARY2-03052014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-3585\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/TRADE-SUMMARY2-03052014.png\" alt=\"TRADE SUMMARY2 03052014\" width=\"529\" height=\"418\" /></a>\r\n\r\nThe above examples are for illustration purposes only:\r\n\r\nThe profitability examples detailed above are based solely upon single lot trading, regardless of lot type. If multiple lot sizes are traded the profitability margins will be different than those shown.\r\n\r\nJust to provide more information so you understand where I am coming from with the risk / reward statements above. All of my trades are of different sizes and different size lot types. The above does not reflect the actual trading performance, but it does show you the direction of the performance of the trades placed.\r\n\r\nI like to add to trades, profits are taken as the trade progresses and my overall cost average moves several times. All of my trades are of different lot styles. I trade a mixture of micro lots, mini lots and standard lots across my brokers.\r\n\r\nThe above results simply display your profit or loss if you placed a single lot trade on all the set-ups suggested and did nothing else.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>3. THE FUNDAMENTAL TRADERS OVERVIEW:</strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>THE NEW NORMAL…WHAT IS NORMAL?</strong></p>\r\nI do not want to sound like a broken record by complaining continuously about how difficult it is to trade in the current market conditions, but it is my considered opinion after reading, watching and listening to lots and lots of financial data and financial experts….that the current Forex market is 100% dysfunctional and sucks!\r\n\r\nSince writing weekly blogs such as THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU, which, I started over two years ago, it has prompted me to research more, get more knowledgeable on fundamental world economic news events and also get more detailed with technical chart analysis. What does make me laugh a little at the moment is that none of that really counts to survive in Forex Trading at the present time.\r\n\r\nAlmost on a daily basis we see moves up and down by 20-30 S&amp;P points, this volatility is NOT normal, yet it has been something that we have been living with for week and after week after week. The “Chop Fest” that has been the Forex market makes it extremely difficult to trade. There are no real trends like we used to be able to latch onto. It is perilous at times.\r\n\r\nGeo-political news like the tensions in Ukraine/Russia are not dominating the Forex moves on a daily basis the way one might of expected. To a large extent the markets appear to ignore the tensions, as nowadays, there are no deployments of troops on the ground in war zones anymore. But every now and then the rhetoric does get a little out of hand and the Forex markets react. I look to GOLD to guide me and then look to the relationship that GOLD and the USD has, and nothing. GOLD doesn\'t necessarily rise on tensions, in fact I have seen it drop through support but the parallel relationship with the USD is no longer correlated. WTF?\r\n\r\nThe S&amp;P trades at highs and the AUD/USD and NZD/USD are falling. The S&amp;P around 1,900 is at all-time highs, yet the AUD/USD cannot get above parity. One would have thought that its correlation with the stock market would have seen the AUD/USD at 1.1600 or even higher. WTF?\r\n\r\nI can highlight more correlations out of sync, I have written about them in a many previous blogs and I do not want to repeat myself again. The bottom line is correlations are mostly off. We have diverging markets.\r\n\r\nGiven the market “Yo-Yo” / “Chop Fest”, I can guarantee you that the Forex market has lost many, many home based traders, whether full or part time. In addition, Equity traders will also be feeling the pinch as they have been on the “Buy The Dip” mode for the past six years ever since the financial crisis. This is the major problem of a one sided directional market, because as soon as it changes like it has more recently, the “Chop Fest” virtually negates buying the dip and some very long established traders are getting smashed / creamed.\r\n\r\nWhat is normal?\r\n\r\nWhen I started thinking about writing this three things immediately jumped out from the page and I thought, this will do as a start: -\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li>No Central bank Intervention.</li>\r\n	<li>No Quantitative Easing or equivalent.</li>\r\n	<li>Interest Rates actually go up and move down freely.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nI think one of the hardest things that all traders are trying to come to terms with is that U.S. Monetary Policy for the past 5 years changed with the introduction of “Tapering”. This did not have the immediate effect that I thought that it would have had, in particular, with USD strength coming through the markets. However, it has created jitters and huge uncertainty as equity markets grab all-time highs and the calls for an equity market pullback, or correction meant that buying at the highs has added to the “Chop Fest” scenario as we are seeing technical chart analysis at extremes. The Forex market is tightly range bound and all this added together with so many inflections points gives us what we have, which is a very volatile, “Chop Fest”.\r\n\r\nI want to remain a Forex Trader.\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>I have given myself the additional responsibility of adding THE PREMIUM SERVICE to my “job”.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>I describe myself as a Fundamental first then Technical swing trader / longer-term position trader.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>I select trade-set ups and post them to my subscribers. I have to my best ability tried to ensure even lower risk trades are suggested that will generate $$$.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nRight now, my trading style from above is out of the window. Like many other Forex traders I have to adapt and survive.\r\n\r\nI am a Scalper, a “Pull-Back” trader at best in these conditions, trying to be a swing-trader.\r\n\r\nThe 80 -100 pip profitable trades have in the main disappeared. I have had to lower my expectations to 20-30 pip trades. I have to exit before I would normally do so. There are hardly any trend trades. I no longer just look at the EUR/USD or USD/JPY. I have traded more exotic pairs in 2014 than the previous 7 years added together. I am adapting to the current normal…whatever normal now is?\r\n\r\nMy daily targets are severely reduced, in fact they are 50% of what I detailed in my TRADING PLAN goals and objectives.\r\n\r\nWhat I am in fact saying is “THE NEW NORMAL” is what it is at the time you research and place your trade.\r\n\r\nNormal is nothing…it’s all about adapting to what it is “NEW” at the time you place a trade.\r\n\r\nAs traders we cannot rely on anything for confirmation at the moment as so many parallels and correlations mean nothing.\r\n\r\nI remember writing not so long ago that the first thing I did in the morning was check “The Holy Trinity” (Gold, Copper and WTi), I still do but I no longer rely on them the way I used to as I am scalping or at best my longer term trades that I still try to let run are really based of the “Pullback Strategy”. Yes, I look at Fibonacci levels, and yes I look at pivot points to attempt to gain the best entry prices and yes, I do look at 100 and 200 day SMA’s. But they are less and less of real importance in comparison to six months ago.\r\n\r\nThe only things to add, that I consider the critical success factors to present day Forex trading survival…\r\n\r\nTRADE SMALLER POSITION SIZES.\r\n\r\nWIDEN YOUR STOPS TO ALLOW FOR THE CHOP FEST AND THE INCREASED VOLATILITY.\r\n\r\nUSE MULTIPLE MICRO LOTS TO GIVE YOU MORE FLEXIBILITY.\r\n\r\nUSE YOUR MONEY AND ACCOUNT MANAGEMENT PRINCIPLES TO ENSURE THAT YOUR ACCOUNT DOES NOT GET NEGATED.\r\n\r\nDO NOT GET HUNG UP ON THE USD MAJORS. LOOK AT THE COMMODITY CROSSES. THEY OFFER AN OPTION THAT CAN KEEP YOU INVOLVED WITH TRENDS SUCH AS THEY ARE BUT KEEP YOU OUT OF THE USD.\r\n\r\nCONSIDER THE NORDIC CURRENCIES AS AN OPTION, ALTHOUGH EUROZONE LINKED THEY ARE STILL TO A LARGE EXTENT DIRECTIONAL.\r\n\r\nPLAN YOUR TRADES AND TRADE YOUR TRADING PLAN.\r\n\r\nIF IN DOUBT, DO NOT COMMIT TO THE TRADE, STAY IN $$$. SOMETIMES THE BEST TRADES ARE THE ONES YOU WALK AWAY FROM.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>4. TRADER TOPICS:</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>TRADING WITH A FLEXIBLE MINDSET\r\nPARTS 1 and 2\r\n\r\n</strong></p>\r\nThis piece that I am including in this weeks blog, basically took on a life of its own as I was working on it. My whole idea of being flexible was initially based around avoiding getting caught up too much with the descriptions of bull or bear, bullish or bearish. As I approached the end, I found myself adding a section referring to todays trading specifics.\r\n\r\nI therefore decided to split the article into Parts 1 and Parts 2. I hope it makes sense.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>PART 1 (BULL or BEAR):</strong></span>\r\n\r\nTrading with a flexible mindset is a critical skill that all traders must learn. While this may seem elementary, consider just how often you hear the media label a trader, a firm or even themselves as a “bull or a “bear”. From my perspective this makes little sense within the Forex market.\r\n\r\nLet’s say that you considered yourself to be a “bull” for the USD, or in other words you think that the USD will rise in the future. To me it’s a vague definition. Does it mean that you think that the USD will rise forever? Will it just be for a week? Will it only go up if the pair you are looking at first drops one hundred pips to a line of support? Without more details in one’s opinion, stating that someone is “bullish” doesn’t give away much information.\r\n\r\nHowever, I sometimes fall into this trap myself, I will say occasionally that I am bullish for a given currency pair without further explanation. This is in my opinion an overstatement and vague. The reason is that I have formed an opinion before I analyze the facts.\r\n\r\ne.g.\r\n\r\nI am a Premier League Soccer/ Football fan and my team is Everton. Because, I always want Everton to win so badly (similar to someone holding a long position wanting the pair to rise), I find myself irrationally thinking that Everton are better than they actually are. So even though I know my bias changes my opinion, I simply cannot help myself.\r\n\r\nHowever in trading there is a lot more on the line. If you have a general opinion before you actually analyze the current situation, then you are viewing the information without the benefit of a rational mindset. This may seem quite strange to hear, but it is true.\r\n\r\nDo not misunderstand me, if you have a current opinion that a currency pair is likely to behave in a certain way due to your analysis, that is fine. But many traders form open-ended opinions on currency pairs and then try to find analysis that fits around that opinion. Let’s say you consider yourself to be generally bullish on the EUR/USD. The reason for this is that you think the Euro “looks better” than the dollar.\r\n\r\nBasically, I am saying that if you are going to trade successfully you must evaluate and review facts yourself and be flexible at all times. Researching and analyzing your trade and picking the entry based upon trading strategy and assessing the risks involved are all vitally important aspects of trading.\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, if you label yourself as a bull or a bear you take away the flexibility of trading based on the facts that are in front of you at any given time, unless those facts support your decision to be “bullish” or “bearish” a particular pair.\r\n\r\nI like to think that I am NOT a trader but a RISK ASSESSEMENT manager. I look at the RISKS and check them before I place the trade. It is a discipline worth having, and whilst it might sound like overkill, it’s better to be over-cautious than flippant. Once your trading account is dry…that\'s it.\r\n\r\nIts all common sense really, trading currencies is not rocket science, it is about being able to assemble thoughts, analyze charts and implement a set of strategies and work within a TRADING PLAN with good MONEY and RISK MANAGEMENT disciplines.<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>PART 2 (SOME THOUGHTS ON TRADING TO-DAY):</strong></span>\r\n\r\nA FEW TIPS FOR THIS MARKET\r\nTRADING WITH A FLEXIBLE MINDSET has taken on a whole new meaning of late and I want to elaborate with a few paragraphs.\r\n\r\nThe Current Forex market is a volatile Chop Fest where even the most experienced traders are being caught out on the wrong sides of trades and traders’ accounts are being squeezed.\r\n\r\nBeing flexible in your approach is vital to trading success today.\r\nVARIABLE LOT SIZES:\r\n\r\nWhen I first started trading I traded standard lot sizes only. The broker said this is the way to go. What utter bulls**t, I left that broker and found a more real world one that I am still with today 7 years later. I moved from a standard lot account to a mini lot account. If I want to trade a standard lot I just trade 10 mini lots…easy.\r\n\r\nNow I have five brokers; two are mini lot only and the other three are micro, mini and standard lots. This now gives me the ultimate flexibility of trade sizes. I can add to or remove partial trade sizes whenever I want. This gives me 100% flexibility.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nPOSITION SIZES AND WIDER STOPS:\r\n\r\nToday, I would trade with smaller position sizes. Use the advantage of micro, mini and standard lot combinations but trade smaller in this period of volatility. Secondly, because of the market volatility place your stops a little wider away, but remain within your TRADE PLAN guidelines.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nDO NOT BE AFRAID TO TAKE LOSSES:\r\n\r\nThis market sucks!\r\n\r\nDo not allow trades to get away from you. Do not be afraid to bank losses. Losses are a part of trading everyone has them.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nIF THE MARKET CHANGES BANK THE CASH:\r\n\r\nIn today’s volatility, if you are in profit and you see your profits start to erode, start to be aggressive in removing part of your position size and moving stops to break even.\r\n\r\nMove stops to break even to protect yourself quicker than maybe you used to. Take profits off the table. Remember, it’s better to bank some $$$ than nothing at all.\r\n\r\nThere are no prizes for “woulda coulda shoulda”. Right now as traders we have to be lean, quick and efficient.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAgain, it’s all about applying common sense.\r\n\r\nTRADING WITH A FLEXIBLE MINDSET covers all aspects of your trading. It is essential to a trader’s success.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>5. MY CURRENT LIVE TRADES:</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>FLASH TRADES:</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">I am in several positions and I am not 100% happy with them all but many positions are very small position sizes that I do not mind holding. I am maybe too optimistic that I will engineer my way out of these poorer trades but my RISK MANAGEMENT is still 100%.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>FT69</strong>\r\n<strong> USD/CAD</strong>\r\n<strong>Long</strong>\r\n<strong>Cost Average / Entry Level: 1.1061</strong>\r\n<strong>Stop Loss: 1.0850</strong>\r\n<strong>Limit / Target: 1.1600</strong>\r\n<strong>Weekly Closing Price: 1.0972</strong>\r\n<strong>Position: -89 pips</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>FT73</strong>\r\n<strong> USD/CHF</strong>\r\n<strong>Long</strong>\r\n<strong>Cost Average / Entry Level: 0.8937</strong>\r\n<strong>Stop Loss: 0.8800</strong>\r\n<strong>Limit / Target: 0.9250</strong>\r\n<strong>Weekly Closing Price: 0.8778</strong>\r\n<strong>Position: -159 pips </strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>FT77</strong>\r\n<strong>EUR/USD</strong>\r\n<strong>Short</strong>\r\n<strong>Cost Average / Entry Level: 1.3744</strong>\r\n<strong>Stop Loss: 1.3950</strong>\r\n<strong>Limit / Target: 1.3450</strong>\r\n<strong>Weekly Closing Price: 1.3873</strong>\r\n<strong>Position: -129 pips</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>FT107</strong>\r\n<strong>NZD/USD</strong>\r\n<strong>Short</strong>\r\n<strong>Cost Average / Entry Level: 0.8533</strong>\r\n<strong>Stop Loss: 0.8750</strong>\r\n<strong>Limit / Target: 0.8400</strong>\r\n<strong>Weekly Closing Price: 0.8655</strong>\r\n<strong>Position: -122 pips</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong> </strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>RADAR TRADES:</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>RT67</strong>\r\n<strong> NZD/CAD</strong>\r\n<strong> Short:</strong>\r\n<strong> Entry / Cost Average: 0.9380</strong>\r\n<strong> Stop Loss: 0.9520</strong>\r\n<strong> Target / Limit: 0.8000</strong>\r\n<strong>Weekly Closing Price: 0.9494</strong>\r\n<strong>Position -114 pips</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>FUNDAMENTAL TRADES:</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>FUN14</strong>\r\n<strong> GBP/NZD</strong>\r\n<strong> (This trade is hedged from -150 pips)</strong>\r\n<strong>Long</strong>\r\n<strong>Cost Average: 1.9950</strong>\r\n<strong>Stop Loss: 1.9000</strong>\r\n<strong>Limit / Target: 2.2350</strong>\r\n<strong>Weekly Closing Price: 1.9438</strong>\r\n<strong>Position: - 512 pips</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong> </strong></p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>6. TRADES THAT ARE ON MY RADAR:</strong>\r\n\r\nDue to Ukraine / Russian tensions I am not looking to add any trades over this weekend. I will give my thoughts on Monday morning after the U.S. equity market has opened via THE DAILY FX POST.\r\n\r\nSuffice to say, the movements in the Forex market are at the moment dysfunctional to say the least. I have enough risk on the table with my current live trades and I do not want to take on any additional risk.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">I put forward two trades last week on Twitter; EUR/CAD and GBP/CAD long. I am still bullish the Canadian $ and both of these trades are within my initial guidelines for entry. The EUR/CAD closed at 1.5221 and GBP/CAD at 1.8508. My original set-ups are below: -\r\n\r\n<strong>EUR/CAD</strong>\r\n<strong> Long at 1.5200</strong>\r\n<strong> Stop Loss 1.4950</strong>\r\n<strong>Target / Limit 1.5600</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong> GBP/CAD</strong>\r\n<strong>Long at 1.8520</strong>\r\n<strong>Stop Loss 1.8350</strong>\r\n<strong>Target / Limit 1.8950</strong></p>\r\nI would wait until we set how the weekend plays out with the tensions around the globe and the politician sound-bytes that will no doubt be aired in Sunday’s press and on TV.\r\n\r\nAs I wrote a few weeks ago, and I still think it now, the commodity crosses offer some of the best trading opportunities moving forward but right now I believe it is EXTREME CAUTION time.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>7. LOOKING FORWARD…THE KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3873.</strong> Despite all the rhetoric and verbal intervention by the ECB we remain in the range that has contained the EUR/USD for seems like an eternity. This Thursday we have the Draghi roadshow, with an ECB interest rate decision and press conference. Something in my brain tells me that despite long lines of unemployed people in many Eurozone countries and DEFLATION worries all over the Eurozone, the ECB will not act…they will simply kick another can down the road. I want to be wrong, but the ECB history on economic matters is 100% reactive, 0% proactive.\r\nThe range that we are being held captive in is 1.3750 to 1.3950.\r\n\r\n<strong>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.6868</strong>. This pair looks like a 1.7000 test is on the cards. Yesterday, after the blowout NFP data it fell to support at 1.6830 and bounced. We are in a tight range with this pair 1.6830 to 1.6920.Having spoken with many of you (PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers) you like me are 100% engaged on the shenanigans of trading the cable. If you do not want to trade the GBP/USD trade the EUR/GBP instead.\r\n\r\n<strong>AUD/USD: Closing Price 0.9276</strong>. Big AUD news on the horizon this week, several market moving events. We closed last week pretty much unchanged from the previous week. I am now more bearish the AUD/USD, but I want to hear and read what the RBA release to the markets this week before getting myself committed one way or another, I want review MY PROBABILITIES!. The range is 0.9200 to 0.9315.\r\n\r\n<strong>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8655</strong>. I hate the Kiwi currency. Of all the currencies that I look at each day it is the one most affected by cross-rates. The AUD/NZD is repositioning itself lower and as a result the AUD drops and the NZD strengthens. My only happy thought on the NZD/USD is that it is well regarded as the most over-extended, over-valued currency in the Forex market and as such it is setting itself up for a major fall from these lofty heights. This despite what RBNZ Wheeler might say. Remember Wheeler says something with one hand and says the opposite with the other. He kind of wants his cake and to eat it at the same time. The range that I am now considering is wider than the initial range that has contained the pair recently. I think that this pair is the classic false breakout / breakdown currency pair. My range is 0.8500 to 0.8750.\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.0972.</strong> Talk about a currency pair that cannot make its mind up whether it is moving lower or higher. The good thing is for people like myself who are long is that it has held up fairly well. Major trend line support is at 1.0850. This is a multi year trend line and as long as we are above this I am bullish. The range is 1.0940 to 1.1060.\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.8778</strong>. After NFP yesterday we rose 40 pips and gave back 55 pips. I am a nervous long with this pair, but my position size is small. Should tensions spill in Ukraine / Russia this is the European safe haven. I am concerned that we may fall to 0.8500 before getting a firm footing to bounce. We are now below 0.8800 once again. The next line in the sand is support at 0.8695. I will not get excited as a long side trader of this pair until we break through 0.8870.<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/JPY: Closing Price 102.18. </strong>The closing price unchanged from last weeks’ close, this pair to me looks like its about to fall off a cliff. Support is strong at 102.00 below there I suspect stops are between 101.80 and 101.90. If they get taken out in a huge fall, the next big support is 101.00. Resistance is good at 102.80.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>8. MAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:</strong>\r\n\r\nSUNDAY: CNY – HSBC Manufacturing PMi.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: AUD – RBA Rate Statement, Cash Rate and Annual Budget\r\nTUESDAY: CAD – Trade balance and IVEY PMi.\r\nTUESDAY: NZD - Employment Change and Employment Rate.\r\nTUESDAY: AUD – Retail Sales.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – Janet Yellen Testimony.\r\nWEDNESDAY: AUD – Employment Change and Unemployment Rate.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: GBP – BOE Bank Rate.\r\nTHURSDAY: EUR – Interest Rate and Press Conference.\r\nTHURSDAY: AUD – RBA Monetary Policy Statement.\r\nTHURSDAY: CNY – CPi.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: CAD: - Employment Change and Unemployment Rate.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>9. FINAL THOUGHTS:</strong>\r\n\r\nDespite a very volatile move last Friday following Non Farm Payrolls release in the U.S. we are still range bound with most of the Forex market.\r\n\r\nThere are some high profile news events this week that should get the markets moving along. We are still sitting in ranges at the moment in many different markets so unless the high profile news moves us, we could be no better off than we are right now. So this week you have to be ready for false breakouts and false breakdowns. There are so many inflection points close by in equities, bonds and the Forex markets, it is really no wonder that we have been in a chop fest for quite sometime.\r\n\r\nThe only thoughts that I can add are, that it is the same for everyone. Everyone looks at the same charts as we do day after day and I have no doubt that they are equally frustrated by the ranges that we are currently stuck within. The key is to be lighter on position sizes and ready to move. With this in mind we have to watch our lead indicators: -\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>GOLD</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>COPPER</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>WTi Crude Oil</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>U.S. 10-Year Treasury</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>S&amp;P</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>AUD/USD</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>USD/CAD</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>USD/SEK</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>And</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>USD/JPY with 6J index</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong> </strong></p>\r\nBy watching these we will get a heads up, if they all follow suit and correlate the way they should we will get a move we want. If they fail to correlate this is what can cause a false breakout or false breakdown.\r\n\r\nDo not be complacent in any aspect of your trading at this time. You should only trade within your TRADING PLAN guidelines as per the examples I have written about and posted to the PREMIUM SERVICE trading essentials section of the website. You should at this time, trade smaller position sizes with stops in place that are within the guidelines of your TRADING PLAN. If my stops are too wide for you, reduce your position sizes to stay within your TRADING PLAN guidelines.\r\n\r\nTake care and good luck. Be careful with position sizes.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nSaturday May 3rd 2014\r\n\r\nEMAIL / FOLLOW ME AT:\r\npremiumservice@weeklyfxdrivethru.com\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\nTwitter: @ThePremService\r\nGoogle+/scottpickering\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','THE NEW NORMAL…WHAT IS NORMAL?','','inherit','open','closed','','3592-revision-v1','','','2014-05-03 09:58:12','2014-05-03 14:58:12','',3592,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/3592-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(3594,1,'2014-05-03 09:59:39','2014-05-03 14:59:39','&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>1. INTRODUCTION:</strong>\r\n\r\nThe roller coaster ride in trading the Forex market continues.\r\n\r\nI wrote today’s FUNDAMENTAL TRADERS OVERVIEW (The Premium Service),   or, THE VIEW FROM MY TRADING DESK (The Weekly Fx Drive Thru), towards the end of last week after a frustrating couple of trading sessions.\r\n\r\nWriting this article was pretty good timing really, given the week that has just gone by and especially after yesterdays events that followed the U.S. Non Farm Data release. I really do believe that many traders whether in equities / bonds / forex have either, just closed their accounts and given up, or, had their accounts wiped out. I have read so many articles over the past few weeks about how difficult it is to trade at the moment. I have been blogging about this matter since early March and, initially I thought it was just myself finding difficulty. But it appears many different traders are in the same boat. My “trading peers” group, as I call us, have all been on the same page for sometime, so I knew that something was up and it was not just me, but the articles that I have recently read are confirmation.\r\n\r\nYou can read what I think about it all later in this blog that you are reading, whether it be from the PREMIUM SERVICE or the WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU. For PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers I have also as promised included a section under TRADER TOPICS that deals with increasing your probabilities in trading.\r\n\r\nThis week’s blogs are 100% focused on how best to deal with a dysfunctional, chop fest of a market. As I constantly keeping writing and saying use your TRADING PLAN, PLAN YOUR TRADES but for now take smaller position sizes to limit risk. We are traders, but in essence we are RISK ASSESSORS and we apply RISK MANAGEMENT behavior to our day-to-day functionality.\r\n\r\nDespite the market shenanigans, the trading accounts related to the PREMIUM SERVICE still showed a profit from the trade set-ups in April. To say that I am delighted is an under-statement of huge proportions. My “trading peers” were basically flat on last month. Sounds good…but the drinks are on me!!\r\n\r\nI have updated the format of my reporting on the PREMIUM SERVICE trading performance, it is now linked to one of my computers through excel. If anyone has difficulty understanding the calculations, do not hesitate to contact me via email at either <a href=\"mailto:drivethru@weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">drivethru@weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> or <a href=\"mailto:premiumservice@weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">premiumservice@weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> I would be delighted to explain the calculations.\r\n\r\nComing up this week in the news that should be market moving for Forex traders, we have Interest Rate decisions and statements from the RBA, ECB and BOE plus the Yellen testimony and CAD and NZD Employment numbers, a busy week indeed. Get the Prozak, Jack Daniels plus a stress toy on the ready. Like everyone else I cannot predict what is ahead, but given the continued on-going developments between Ukraine and Russia, I would predict a bumpy ride for the foreseeable future…..enjoy!!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>2. TRADING SUMMARY:</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>RADAR, FLASH and FUNDAMENTAL TRADES</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>APRIL 2014 and YEAR to date:</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Below I show the up to date performances for my various trading styles. Full excel spreadsheets are in the subscriber area of the PREMIUM SERVICE.</p>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/TRADE-SUMMARY1-03052014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-3584\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/TRADE-SUMMARY1-03052014.png\" alt=\"TRADE SUMMARY1 03052014\" width=\"457\" height=\"414\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/TRADE-SUMMARY2-03052014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-3585\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/TRADE-SUMMARY2-03052014.png\" alt=\"TRADE SUMMARY2 03052014\" width=\"529\" height=\"418\" /></a>\r\n\r\nThe above examples are for illustration purposes only:\r\n\r\nThe profitability examples detailed above are based solely upon single lot trading, regardless of lot type. If multiple lot sizes are traded the profitability margins will be different than those shown.\r\n\r\nJust to provide more information so you understand where I am coming from with the risk / reward statements above. All of my trades are of different sizes and different size lot types. The above does not reflect the actual trading performance, but it does show you the direction of the performance of the trades placed.\r\n\r\nI like to add to trades, profits are taken as the trade progresses and my overall cost average moves several times. All of my trades are of different lot styles. I trade a mixture of micro lots, mini lots and standard lots across my brokers.\r\n\r\nThe above results simply display your profit or loss if you placed a single lot trade on all the set-ups suggested and did nothing else.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>3. THE FUNDAMENTAL TRADERS OVERVIEW:</strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>THE NEW NORMAL…WHAT IS NORMAL?</strong></p>\r\nI do not want to sound like a broken record by complaining continuously about how difficult it is to trade in the current market conditions, but it is my considered opinion after reading, watching and listening to lots and lots of financial data and financial experts….that the current Forex market is 100% dysfunctional and sucks!\r\n\r\nSince writing weekly blogs such as THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU, which, I started over two years ago, it has prompted me to research more, get more knowledgeable on fundamental world economic news events and also get more detailed with technical chart analysis. What does make me laugh a little at the moment is that none of that really counts to survive in Forex Trading at the present time.\r\n\r\nAlmost on a daily basis we see moves up and down by 20-30 S&amp;P points, this volatility is NOT normal, yet it has been something that we have been living with for week and after week after week. The “Chop Fest” that has been the Forex market makes it extremely difficult to trade. There are no real trends like we used to be able to latch onto. It is perilous at times.\r\n\r\nGeo-political news like the tensions in Ukraine/Russia are not dominating the Forex moves on a daily basis the way one might of expected. To a large extent the markets appear to ignore the tensions, as nowadays, there are no deployments of troops on the ground in war zones anymore. But every now and then the rhetoric does get a little out of hand and the Forex markets react. I look to GOLD to guide me and then look to the relationship that GOLD and the USD has, and nothing. GOLD doesn\'t necessarily rise on tensions, in fact I have seen it drop through support but the parallel relationship with the USD is no longer correlated. WTF?\r\n\r\nThe S&amp;P trades at highs and the AUD/USD and NZD/USD are falling. The S&amp;P around 1,900 is at all-time highs, yet the AUD/USD cannot get above parity. One would have thought that its correlation with the stock market would have seen the AUD/USD at 1.1600 or even higher. WTF?\r\n\r\nI can highlight more correlations out of sync, I have written about them in a many previous blogs and I do not want to repeat myself again. The bottom line is correlations are mostly off. We have diverging markets.\r\n\r\nGiven the market “Yo-Yo” / “Chop Fest”, I can guarantee you that the Forex market has lost many, many home based traders, whether full or part time. In addition, Equity traders will also be feeling the pinch as they have been on the “Buy The Dip” mode for the past six years ever since the financial crisis. This is the major problem of a one sided directional market, because as soon as it changes like it has more recently, the “Chop Fest” virtually negates buying the dip and some very long established traders are getting smashed / creamed.\r\n\r\nWhat is normal?\r\n\r\nWhen I started thinking about writing this three things immediately jumped out from the page and I thought, this will do as a start: -\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li>No Central bank Intervention.</li>\r\n	<li>No Quantitative Easing or equivalent.</li>\r\n	<li>Interest Rates actually go up and move down freely.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nI think one of the hardest things that all traders are trying to come to terms with is that U.S. Monetary Policy for the past 5 years changed with the introduction of “Tapering”. This did not have the immediate effect that I thought that it would have had, in particular, with USD strength coming through the markets. However, it has created jitters and huge uncertainty as equity markets grab all-time highs and the calls for an equity market pullback, or correction meant that buying at the highs has added to the “Chop Fest” scenario as we are seeing technical chart analysis at extremes. The Forex market is tightly range bound and all this added together with so many inflections points gives us what we have, which is a very volatile, “Chop Fest”.\r\n\r\nI want to remain a Forex Trader.\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>I have given myself the additional responsibility of adding THE PREMIUM SERVICE to my “job”.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>I describe myself as a Fundamental first then Technical swing trader / longer-term position trader.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>I select trade-set ups and post them to my subscribers. I have to my best ability tried to ensure even lower risk trades are suggested that will generate $$$.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nRight now, my trading style from above is out of the window. Like many other Forex traders I have to adapt and survive.\r\n\r\nI am a Scalper, a “Pull-Back” trader at best in these conditions, trying to be a swing-trader.\r\n\r\nThe 80 -100 pip profitable trades have in the main disappeared. I have had to lower my expectations to 20-30 pip trades. I have to exit before I would normally do so. There are hardly any trend trades. I no longer just look at the EUR/USD or USD/JPY. I have traded more exotic pairs in 2014 than the previous 7 years added together. I am adapting to the current normal…whatever normal now is?\r\n\r\nMy daily targets are severely reduced, in fact they are 50% of what I detailed in my TRADING PLAN goals and objectives.\r\n\r\nWhat I am in fact saying is “THE NEW NORMAL” is what it is at the time you research and place your trade.\r\n\r\nNormal is nothing…it’s all about adapting to what it is “NEW” at the time you place a trade.\r\n\r\nAs traders we cannot rely on anything for confirmation at the moment as so many parallels and correlations mean nothing.\r\n\r\nI remember writing not so long ago that the first thing I did in the morning was check “The Holy Trinity” (Gold, Copper and WTi), I still do but I no longer rely on them the way I used to as I am scalping or at best my longer term trades that I still try to let run are really based of the “Pullback Strategy”. Yes, I look at Fibonacci levels, and yes I look at pivot points to attempt to gain the best entry prices and yes, I do look at 100 and 200 day SMA’s. But they are less and less of real importance in comparison to six months ago.\r\n\r\nThe only things to add, that I consider the critical success factors to present day Forex trading survival…\r\n\r\nTRADE SMALLER POSITION SIZES.\r\n\r\nWIDEN YOUR STOPS TO ALLOW FOR THE CHOP FEST AND THE INCREASED VOLATILITY.\r\n\r\nUSE MULTIPLE MICRO LOTS TO GIVE YOU MORE FLEXIBILITY.\r\n\r\nUSE YOUR MONEY AND ACCOUNT MANAGEMENT PRINCIPLES TO ENSURE THAT YOUR ACCOUNT DOES NOT GET NEGATED.\r\n\r\nDO NOT GET HUNG UP ON THE USD MAJORS. LOOK AT THE COMMODITY CROSSES. THEY OFFER AN OPTION THAT CAN KEEP YOU INVOLVED WITH TRENDS SUCH AS THEY ARE BUT KEEP YOU OUT OF THE USD.\r\n\r\nCONSIDER THE NORDIC CURRENCIES AS AN OPTION, ALTHOUGH EUROZONE LINKED THEY ARE STILL TO A LARGE EXTENT DIRECTIONAL.\r\n\r\nPLAN YOUR TRADES AND TRADE YOUR TRADING PLAN.\r\n\r\nIF IN DOUBT, DO NOT COMMIT TO THE TRADE, STAY IN $$$. SOMETIMES THE BEST TRADES ARE THE ONES YOU WALK AWAY FROM.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>4. TRADER TOPICS:</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>TRADING WITH A FLEXIBLE MINDSET\r\nPARTS 1 and 2</strong></p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThis piece that I am including in this weeks blog, basically took on a life of its own as I was working on it. My whole idea of being flexible was initially based around avoiding getting caught up too much with the descriptions of bull or bear, bullish or bearish. As I approached the end, I found myself adding a section referring to todays trading specifics.\r\n\r\nI therefore decided to split the article into Parts 1 and Parts 2. I hope it makes sense.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>PART 1 (BULL or BEAR):</strong></span>\r\n\r\nTrading with a flexible mindset is a critical skill that all traders must learn. While this may seem elementary, consider just how often you hear the media label a trader, a firm or even themselves as a “bull or a “bear”. From my perspective this makes little sense within the Forex market.\r\n\r\nLet’s say that you considered yourself to be a “bull” for the USD, or in other words you think that the USD will rise in the future. To me it’s a vague definition. Does it mean that you think that the USD will rise forever? Will it just be for a week? Will it only go up if the pair you are looking at first drops one hundred pips to a line of support? Without more details in one’s opinion, stating that someone is “bullish” doesn’t give away much information.\r\n\r\nHowever, I sometimes fall into this trap myself, I will say occasionally that I am bullish for a given currency pair without further explanation. This is in my opinion an overstatement and vague. The reason is that I have formed an opinion before I analyze the facts.\r\n\r\ne.g.\r\n\r\nI am a Premier League Soccer/ Football fan and my team is Everton. Because, I always want Everton to win so badly (similar to someone holding a long position wanting the pair to rise), I find myself irrationally thinking that Everton are better than they actually are. So even though I know my bias changes my opinion, I simply cannot help myself.\r\n\r\nHowever in trading there is a lot more on the line. If you have a general opinion before you actually analyze the current situation, then you are viewing the information without the benefit of a rational mindset. This may seem quite strange to hear, but it is true.\r\n\r\nDo not misunderstand me, if you have a current opinion that a currency pair is likely to behave in a certain way due to your analysis, that is fine. But many traders form open-ended opinions on currency pairs and then try to find analysis that fits around that opinion. Let’s say you consider yourself to be generally bullish on the EUR/USD. The reason for this is that you think the Euro “looks better” than the dollar.\r\n\r\nBasically, I am saying that if you are going to trade successfully you must evaluate and review facts yourself and be flexible at all times. Researching and analyzing your trade and picking the entry based upon trading strategy and assessing the risks involved are all vitally important aspects of trading.\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, if you label yourself as a bull or a bear you take away the flexibility of trading based on the facts that are in front of you at any given time, unless those facts support your decision to be “bullish” or “bearish” a particular pair.\r\n\r\nI like to think that I am NOT a trader but a RISK ASSESSEMENT manager. I look at the RISKS and check them before I place the trade. It is a discipline worth having, and whilst it might sound like overkill, it’s better to be over-cautious than flippant. Once your trading account is dry…that\'s it.\r\n\r\nIts all common sense really, trading currencies is not rocket science, it is about being able to assemble thoughts, analyze charts and implement a set of strategies and work within a TRADING PLAN with good MONEY and RISK MANAGEMENT disciplines.<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>PART 2 (SOME THOUGHTS ON TRADING TO-DAY):</strong></span>\r\n\r\nA FEW TIPS FOR THIS MARKET\r\n\r\nTRADING WITH A FLEXIBLE MINDSET has taken on a whole new meaning of late and I want to elaborate with a few paragraphs.\r\n\r\nThe Current Forex market is a volatile Chop Fest where even the most experienced traders are being caught out on the wrong sides of trades and traders’ accounts are being squeezed.\r\n\r\nBeing flexible in your approach is vital to trading success today.\r\nVARIABLE LOT SIZES:\r\n\r\nWhen I first started trading I traded standard lot sizes only. The broker said this is the way to go. What utter bulls**t, I left that broker and found a more real world one that I am still with today 7 years later. I moved from a standard lot account to a mini lot account. If I want to trade a standard lot I just trade 10 mini lots…easy.\r\n\r\nNow I have five brokers; two are mini lot only and the other three are micro, mini and standard lots. This now gives me the ultimate flexibility of trade sizes. I can add to or remove partial trade sizes whenever I want. This gives me 100% flexibility.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nPOSITION SIZES AND WIDER STOPS:\r\n\r\nToday, I would trade with smaller position sizes. Use the advantage of micro, mini and standard lot combinations but trade smaller in this period of volatility. Secondly, because of the market volatility place your stops a little wider away, but remain within your TRADE PLAN guidelines.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nDO NOT BE AFRAID TO TAKE LOSSES:\r\n\r\nThis market sucks!\r\n\r\nDo not allow trades to get away from you. Do not be afraid to bank losses. Losses are a part of trading everyone has them.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nIF THE MARKET CHANGES BANK THE CASH:\r\n\r\nIn today’s volatility, if you are in profit and you see your profits start to erode, start to be aggressive in removing part of your position size and moving stops to break even.\r\n\r\nMove stops to break even to protect yourself quicker than maybe you used to. Take profits off the table. Remember, it’s better to bank some $$$ than nothing at all.\r\n\r\nThere are no prizes for “woulda coulda shoulda”. Right now as traders we have to be lean, quick and efficient.\r\n\r\nAgain, it’s all about applying common sense.\r\n\r\nTRADING WITH A FLEXIBLE MINDSET covers all aspects of your trading. It is essential to a trader’s success.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>5. MY CURRENT LIVE TRADES:</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>FLASH TRADES:</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">I am in several positions and I am not 100% happy with them all but many positions are very small position sizes that I do not mind holding. I am maybe too optimistic that I will engineer my way out of these poorer trades but my RISK MANAGEMENT is still 100%.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>FT69</strong>\r\n<strong> USD/CAD</strong>\r\n<strong>Long</strong>\r\n<strong>Cost Average / Entry Level: 1.1061</strong>\r\n<strong>Stop Loss: 1.0850</strong>\r\n<strong>Limit / Target: 1.1600</strong>\r\n<strong>Weekly Closing Price: 1.0972</strong>\r\n<strong>Position: -89 pips</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>FT73</strong>\r\n<strong> USD/CHF</strong>\r\n<strong>Long</strong>\r\n<strong>Cost Average / Entry Level: 0.8937</strong>\r\n<strong>Stop Loss: 0.8800</strong>\r\n<strong>Limit / Target: 0.9250</strong>\r\n<strong>Weekly Closing Price: 0.8778</strong>\r\n<strong>Position: -159 pips </strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>FT77</strong>\r\n<strong>EUR/USD</strong>\r\n<strong>Short</strong>\r\n<strong>Cost Average / Entry Level: 1.3744</strong>\r\n<strong>Stop Loss: 1.3950</strong>\r\n<strong>Limit / Target: 1.3450</strong>\r\n<strong>Weekly Closing Price: 1.3873</strong>\r\n<strong>Position: -129 pips</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>FT107</strong>\r\n<strong>NZD/USD</strong>\r\n<strong>Short</strong>\r\n<strong>Cost Average / Entry Level: 0.8533</strong>\r\n<strong>Stop Loss: 0.8750</strong>\r\n<strong>Limit / Target: 0.8400</strong>\r\n<strong>Weekly Closing Price: 0.8655</strong>\r\n<strong>Position: -122 pips</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong> </strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>RADAR TRADES:</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>RT67</strong>\r\n<strong> NZD/CAD</strong>\r\n<strong> Short:</strong>\r\n<strong> Entry / Cost Average: 0.9380</strong>\r\n<strong> Stop Loss: 0.9520</strong>\r\n<strong> Target / Limit: 0.8000</strong>\r\n<strong>Weekly Closing Price: 0.9494</strong>\r\n<strong>Position -114 pips</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>FUNDAMENTAL TRADES:</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>FUN14</strong>\r\n<strong> GBP/NZD</strong>\r\n<strong> (This trade is hedged from -150 pips)</strong>\r\n<strong>Long</strong>\r\n<strong>Cost Average: 1.9950</strong>\r\n<strong>Stop Loss: 1.9000</strong>\r\n<strong>Limit / Target: 2.2350</strong>\r\n<strong>Weekly Closing Price: 1.9438</strong>\r\n<strong>Position: - 512 pips</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong> </strong></p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>6. TRADES THAT ARE ON MY RADAR:</strong>\r\n\r\nDue to Ukraine / Russian tensions I am not looking to add any trades over this weekend. I will give my thoughts on Monday morning after the U.S. equity market has opened via THE DAILY FX POST.\r\n\r\nSuffice to say, the movements in the Forex market are at the moment dysfunctional to say the least. I have enough risk on the table with my current live trades and I do not want to take on any additional risk.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">I put forward two trades last week on Twitter; EUR/CAD and GBP/CAD long. I am still bullish the Canadian $ and both of these trades are within my initial guidelines for entry. The EUR/CAD closed at 1.5221 and GBP/CAD at 1.8508. My original set-ups are below: -</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>EUR/CAD</strong>\r\n<strong> Long at 1.5200</strong>\r\n<strong> Stop Loss 1.4950</strong>\r\n<strong>Target / Limit 1.5600</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong> GBP/CAD</strong>\r\n<strong>Long at 1.8520</strong>\r\n<strong>Stop Loss 1.8350</strong>\r\n<strong>Target / Limit 1.8950</strong></p>\r\nI would wait until we set how the weekend plays out with the tensions around the globe and the politician sound-bytes that will no doubt be aired in Sunday’s press and on TV.\r\n\r\nAs I wrote a few weeks ago, and I still think it now, the commodity crosses offer some of the best trading opportunities moving forward but right now I believe it is EXTREME CAUTION time.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>7. LOOKING FORWARD…THE KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3873.</strong> Despite all the rhetoric and verbal intervention by the ECB we remain in the range that has contained the EUR/USD for seems like an eternity. This Thursday we have the Draghi roadshow, with an ECB interest rate decision and press conference. Something in my brain tells me that despite long lines of unemployed people in many Eurozone countries and DEFLATION worries all over the Eurozone, the ECB will not act…they will simply kick another can down the road. I want to be wrong, but the ECB history on economic matters is 100% reactive, 0% proactive.\r\nThe range that we are being held captive in is 1.3750 to 1.3950.\r\n\r\n<strong>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.6868</strong>. This pair looks like a 1.7000 test is on the cards. Yesterday, after the blowout NFP data it fell to support at 1.6830 and bounced. We are in a tight range with this pair 1.6830 to 1.6920.Having spoken with many of you (PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers) you like me are 100% engaged on the shenanigans of trading the cable. If you do not want to trade the GBP/USD trade the EUR/GBP instead.\r\n\r\n<strong>AUD/USD: Closing Price 0.9276</strong>. Big AUD news on the horizon this week, several market moving events. We closed last week pretty much unchanged from the previous week. I am now more bearish the AUD/USD, but I want to hear and read what the RBA release to the markets this week before getting myself committed one way or another, I want review MY PROBABILITIES!. The range is 0.9200 to 0.9315.\r\n\r\n<strong>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8655</strong>. I hate the Kiwi currency. Of all the currencies that I look at each day it is the one most affected by cross-rates. The AUD/NZD is repositioning itself lower and as a result the AUD drops and the NZD strengthens. My only happy thought on the NZD/USD is that it is well regarded as the most over-extended, over-valued currency in the Forex market and as such it is setting itself up for a major fall from these lofty heights. This despite what RBNZ Wheeler might say. Remember Wheeler says something with one hand and says the opposite with the other. He kind of wants his cake and to eat it at the same time. The range that I am now considering is wider than the initial range that has contained the pair recently. I think that this pair is the classic false breakout / breakdown currency pair. My range is 0.8500 to 0.8750.\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.0972.</strong> Talk about a currency pair that cannot make its mind up whether it is moving lower or higher. The good thing is for people like myself who are long is that it has held up fairly well. Major trend line support is at 1.0850. This is a multi year trend line and as long as we are above this I am bullish. The range is 1.0940 to 1.1060.\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.8778</strong>. After NFP yesterday we rose 40 pips and gave back 55 pips. I am a nervous long with this pair, but my position size is small. Should tensions spill in Ukraine / Russia this is the European safe haven. I am concerned that we may fall to 0.8500 before getting a firm footing to bounce. We are now below 0.8800 once again. The next line in the sand is support at 0.8695. I will not get excited as a long side trader of this pair until we break through 0.8870.<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/JPY: Closing Price 102.18. </strong>The closing price unchanged from last weeks’ close, this pair to me looks like its about to fall off a cliff. Support is strong at 102.00 below there I suspect stops are between 101.80 and 101.90. If they get taken out in a huge fall, the next big support is 101.00. Resistance is good at 102.80.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>8. MAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:</strong>\r\n\r\nSUNDAY: CNY – HSBC Manufacturing PMi.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: AUD – RBA Rate Statement, Cash Rate and Annual Budget\r\nTUESDAY: CAD – Trade balance and IVEY PMi.\r\nTUESDAY: NZD - Employment Change and Employment Rate.\r\nTUESDAY: AUD – Retail Sales.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – Janet Yellen Testimony.\r\nWEDNESDAY: AUD – Employment Change and Unemployment Rate.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: GBP – BOE Bank Rate.\r\nTHURSDAY: EUR – Interest Rate and Press Conference.\r\nTHURSDAY: AUD – RBA Monetary Policy Statement.\r\nTHURSDAY: CNY – CPi.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: CAD: - Employment Change and Unemployment Rate.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>9. FINAL THOUGHTS:</strong>\r\n\r\nDespite a very volatile move last Friday following Non Farm Payrolls release in the U.S. we are still range bound with most of the Forex market.\r\n\r\nThere are some high profile news events this week that should get the markets moving along. We are still sitting in ranges at the moment in many different markets so unless the high profile news moves us, we could be no better off than we are right now. So this week you have to be ready for false breakouts and false breakdowns. There are so many inflection points close by in equities, bonds and the Forex markets, it is really no wonder that we have been in a chop fest for quite sometime.\r\n\r\nThe only thoughts that I can add are, that it is the same for everyone. Everyone looks at the same charts as we do day after day and I have no doubt that they are equally frustrated by the ranges that we are currently stuck within. The key is to be lighter on position sizes and ready to move. With this in mind we have to watch our lead indicators: -\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>GOLD</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>COPPER</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>WTi Crude Oil</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>U.S. 10-Year Treasury</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>S&amp;P</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>AUD/USD</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>USD/CAD</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>USD/SEK</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>And</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>USD/JPY with 6J index</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong> </strong></p>\r\nBy watching these we will get a heads up, if they all follow suit and correlate the way they should we will get a move we want. If they fail to correlate this is what can cause a false breakout or false breakdown.\r\n\r\nDo not be complacent in any aspect of your trading at this time. You should only trade within your TRADING PLAN guidelines as per the examples I have written about and posted to the PREMIUM SERVICE trading essentials section of the website. You should at this time, trade smaller position sizes with stops in place that are within the guidelines of your TRADING PLAN. If my stops are too wide for you, reduce your position sizes to stay within your TRADING PLAN guidelines.\r\n\r\nTake care and good luck. Be careful with position sizes.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nSaturday May 3rd 2014\r\n\r\nEMAIL / FOLLOW ME AT:\r\npremiumservice@weeklyfxdrivethru.com\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\nTwitter: @ThePremService\r\nGoogle+/scottpickering\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','THE NEW NORMAL…WHAT IS NORMAL?','','inherit','open','closed','','3592-revision-v1','','','2014-05-03 09:59:39','2014-05-03 14:59:39','',3592,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/3592-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(3595,1,'2014-05-03 10:05:16','2014-05-03 15:05:16','<section class=\"pdf-links\">\r\n<div class=\"one-third first\"></div>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/TRADING-WITH-ATRs.pdf\">TRADING WITH ATR\'s</a>\r\n<div class=\"one-third\"></div>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/HEDGING.pdf\">HEDGING</a>\r\n<div class=\"one-third\"></div>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/CREATING-A-TRADING-PLAN-3.0.pdf\">CREATING A TRADING PLAN</a>\r\n<div class=\"one-third\"></div>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/FOLLOWING-YOUR-TRADING-PLAN-.pdf\">FOLLOWING YOUR TRADING PLAN</a>\r\n<div class=\"one-third\"></div>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/PLANNING-YOUR-TRADES-2.0.pdf\">PLANNING YOUR TRADES (2.0)</a>\r\n<div class=\"one-third\"></div>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/MANAGING-RISK.pdf\">MANAGING RISK</a>\r\n<div class=\"one-third\"></div>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/STOP-PLACEMENT.pdf\">STOP PLACEMENT</a>\r\n<div class=\"one-third\"></div>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/MAXIMISING-PROFIT-POTENTIAL-BY-PROPERLY-SIZING-POSITIONS.pdf\">MAXIMISING PROFIT POTENTIAL BY PROPERLY SIZING POSITIONS</a>\r\n<div class=\"one-third\"></div>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/TRADING-AROUND-THE-NEWS.pdf\">TRADING AROUND THE NEWS</a>\r\n<div class=\"one-third\"></div>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/HANDLING-NEWS-WITH-AN-OPEN-POSITION.pdf\">HANDLING NEWS WITH AN OPEN POSITION</a>\r\n<div class=\"one-third\"></div>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/LIVE-ACCOUNT-vs-DEMO-ACCOUNT.pdf\">LIVE ACCOUNT vs DEMO ACCOUNT</a>\r\n<div class=\"one-half first\"></div>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/TRADING-WITH-A-FLEXIBLE-MINDSET.pdf\">TRADING WITH A FLEXIBLE MINDSET</a>\r\n<div class=\"one-half first\"></div>\r\n<div class=\"one-half first\"></div>\r\n<div class=\"one-half first\"></div>\r\n<div class=\"one-half first\">These resources are in PDF format that will allow for easy printing</div>\r\n<div class=\"one-third\"></div>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<div class=\"one-third\"></div>\r\n<div class=\"one-third\"></div>\r\n<div class=\"one-third\"></div>\r\n<div class=\"one-third\"></div>\r\n<div class=\"one-half first\"></div>\r\n<div class=\"one-half first\"></div>\r\n<div class=\"one-half first\"></div>\r\n</section>','Trading Essentials','','inherit','open','closed','','2538-revision-v1','','','2014-05-03 10:05:16','2014-05-03 15:05:16','',2538,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/2538-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(3597,1,'2014-05-03 10:22:45','2014-05-03 15:22:45','<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>1. INTRODUCTION:</strong>\r\n\r\nThe roller coaster ride in trading the Forex market continues.\r\n\r\nI wrote today’s FUNDAMENTAL TRADERS OVERVIEW (The Premium Service),   or, THE VIEW FROM MY TRADING DESK (The Weekly Fx Drive Thru), towards the end of last week after a frustrating couple of trading sessions.\r\n\r\nWriting this article was pretty good timing really, given the week that has just gone by and especially after yesterdays events that followed the U.S. Non Farm Data release. I really do believe that many traders whether in equities / bonds / forex have either, just closed their accounts and given up, or, had their accounts wiped out. I have read so many articles over the past few weeks about how difficult it is to trade at the moment. I have been blogging about this matter since early March and, initially I thought it was just myself finding difficulty. But it appears many different traders are in the same boat. My “trading peers” group, as I call us, have all been on the same page for sometime, so I knew that something was up and it was not just me, but the articles that I have recently read are confirmation.\r\n\r\nYou can read what I think about it all later in this blog that you are reading, whether it be from the PREMIUM SERVICE or the WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU. For PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers I have also as promised included a section under TRADER TOPICS that deals with increasing your probabilities in trading.\r\n\r\nThis week’s blogs are 100% focused on how best to deal with a dysfunctional, chop fest of a market. As I constantly keeping writing and saying use your TRADING PLAN, PLAN YOUR TRADES but for now take smaller position sizes to limit risk. We are traders, but in essence we are RISK ASSESSORS and we apply RISK MANAGEMENT behavior to our day-to-day functionality.\r\n\r\nDespite the market shenanigans, the trading accounts related to the PREMIUM SERVICE still showed a profit from the trade set-ups in April. To say that I am delighted is an under-statement of huge proportions. My “trading peers” were basically flat on last month. Sounds good…but the drinks are on me!!\r\n\r\nI have updated the format of my reporting on the PREMIUM SERVICE trading performance, it is now linked to one of my computers through excel. If anyone has difficulty understanding the calculations, do not hesitate to contact me via email at either <a href=\"mailto:drivethru@weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">drivethru@weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> or <a href=\"mailto:premiumservice@weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">premiumservice@weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> I would be delighted to explain the calculations.\r\n\r\nComing up this week in the news that should be market moving for Forex traders, we have Interest Rate decisions and statements from the RBA, ECB and BOE plus the Yellen testimony and CAD and NZD Employment numbers, a busy week indeed. Get the Prozak, Jack Daniels plus a stress toy on the ready. Like everyone else I cannot predict what is ahead, but given the continued on-going developments between Ukraine and Russia, I would predict a bumpy ride for the foreseeable future…..enjoy!!\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>2. THE VIEW FROM MY TRADING DESK:</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>THE NEW NORMAL…WHAT IS NORMAL?</strong></p>\r\nI do not want to sound like a broken record by complaining continuously about how difficult it is to trade in the current market conditions, but it is my considered opinion after reading, watching and listening to lots and lots of financial data and financial experts….that the current Forex market is 100% dysfunctional and sucks!\r\n\r\nSince writing weekly blogs such as THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU, which, I started over two years ago, it has prompted me to research more, get more knowledgeable on fundamental world economic news events and also get more detailed with technical chart analysis. What does make me laugh a little at the moment is that none of that really counts to survive in Forex Trading at the present time.\r\n\r\nAlmost on a daily basis we see moves up and down by 20-30 S&amp;P points, this volatility is NOT normal, yet it has been something that we have been living with for week and after week after week. The “Chop Fest” that has been the Forex market makes it extremely difficult to trade. There are no real trends like we used to be able to latch onto. It is perilous at times.\r\n\r\nGeo-political news like the tensions in Ukraine/Russia are not dominating the Forex moves on a daily basis the way one might of expected. To a large extent the markets appear to ignore the tensions, as nowadays, there are no deployments of troops on the ground in war zones anymore. But every now and then the rhetoric does get a little out of hand and the Forex markets react. I look to GOLD to guide me and then look to the relationship that GOLD and the USD has, and nothing. GOLD doesn\'t necessarily rise on tensions, in fact I have seen it drop through support but the parallel relationship with the USD is no longer correlated. WTF?\r\n\r\nThe S&amp;P trades at highs and the AUD/USD and NZD/USD are falling. The S&amp;P around 1,900 is at all-time highs, yet the AUD/USD cannot get above parity. One would have thought that its correlation with the stock market would have seen the AUD/USD at 1.1600 or even higher. WTF?\r\n\r\nI can highlight more correlations out of sync, I have written about them in a many previous blogs and I do not want to repeat myself again. The bottom line is correlations are mostly off. We have diverging markets.\r\n\r\nGiven the market “Yo-Yo” / “Chop Fest”, I can guarantee you that the Forex market has lost many, many home based traders, whether full or part time. In addition, Equity traders will also be feeling the pinch as they have been on the “Buy The Dip” mode for the past six years ever since the financial crisis. This is the major problem of a one sided directional market, because as soon as it changes like it has more recently, the “Chop Fest” virtually negates buying the dip and some very long established traders are getting smashed / creamed.\r\n\r\nWhat is normal?\r\n\r\nWhen I started thinking about writing this three things immediately jumped out from the page and I thought, this will do as a start: -\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li>No Central bank Intervention.</li>\r\n	<li>No Quantitative Easing or equivalent.</li>\r\n	<li>Interest Rates actually go up and move down freely.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nI think one of the hardest things that all traders are trying to come to terms with is that U.S. Monetary Policy for the past 5 years changed with the introduction of “Tapering”. This did not have the immediate effect that I thought that it would have had, in particular, with USD strength coming through the markets. However, it has created jitters and huge uncertainty as equity markets grab all-time highs and the calls for an equity market pullback, or correction meant that buying at the highs has added to the “Chop Fest” scenario as we are seeing technical chart analysis at extremes. The Forex market is tightly range bound and all this added together with so many inflections points gives us what we have, which is a very volatile, “Chop Fest”.\r\n\r\nI want to remain a Forex Trader.\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>I have given myself the additional responsibility of adding THE PREMIUM SERVICE to my “job”.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>I describe myself as a Fundamental first then Technical swing trader / longer-term position trader.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>I select trade-set ups and post them to my subscribers. I have to my best ability tried to ensure even lower risk trades are suggested that will generate $$$.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nRight now, my trading style from above is out of the window. Like many other Forex traders I have to adapt and survive.\r\n\r\nI am a Scalper, a “Pull-Back” trader at best in these conditions, trying to be a swing-trader.\r\n\r\nThe 80 -100 pip profitable trades have in the main disappeared. I have had to lower my expectations to 20-30 pip trades. I have to exit before I would normally do so. There are hardly any trend trades. I no longer just look at the EUR/USD or USD/JPY. I have traded more exotic pairs in 2014 than the previous 7 years added together. I am adapting to the current normal…whatever normal now is?\r\n\r\nMy daily targets are severely reduced, in fact they are 50% of what I detailed in my TRADING PLAN goals and objectives.\r\n\r\nWhat I am in fact saying is “THE NEW NORMAL” is what it is at the time you research and place your trade.\r\n\r\nNormal is nothing…it’s all about adapting to what it is “NEW” at the time you place a trade.\r\n\r\nAs traders we cannot rely on anything for confirmation at the moment as so many parallels and correlations mean nothing.\r\n\r\nI remember writing not so long ago that the first thing I did in the morning was check “The Holy Trinity” (Gold, Copper and WTi), I still do but I no longer rely on them the way I used to as I am scalping or at best my longer term trades that I still try to let run are really based of the “Pullback Strategy”. Yes, I look at Fibonacci levels, and yes I look at pivot points to attempt to gain the best entry prices and yes, I do look at 100 and 200 day SMA’s. But they are less and less of real importance in comparison to six months ago.\r\n\r\nThe only things to add, that I consider the critical success factors to present day Forex trading survival…\r\n\r\nTRADE SMALLER POSITION SIZES.\r\n\r\nWIDEN YOUR STOPS TO ALLOW FOR THE CHOP FEST AND THE INCREASED VOLATILITY.\r\n\r\nUSE MULTIPLE MICRO LOTS TO GIVE YOU MORE FLEXIBILITY.\r\n\r\nUSE YOUR MONEY AND ACCOUNT MANAGEMENT PRINCIPLES TO ENSURE THAT YOUR ACCOUNT DOES NOT GET NEGATED.\r\n\r\nDO NOT GET HUNG UP ON THE USD MAJORS. LOOK AT THE COMMODITY CROSSES. THEY OFFER AN OPTION THAT CAN KEEP YOU INVOLVED WITH TRENDS SUCH AS THEY ARE BUT KEEP YOU OUT OF THE USD.\r\n\r\nCONSIDER THE NORDIC CURRENCIES AS AN OPTION, ALTHOUGH EUROZONE LINKED THEY ARE STILL TO A LARGE EXTENT DIRECTIONAL.\r\n\r\nPLAN YOUR TRADES AND TRADE YOUR TRADING PLAN.\r\n\r\nIF IN DOUBT, DO NOT COMMIT TO THE TRADE, STAY IN $$$. SOMETIMES THE BEST TRADES ARE THE ONES YOU WALK AWAY FROM.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>3. LOOKING FORWARD…THE KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS:</strong><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3873.</strong> Despite all the rhetoric and verbal intervention by the ECB we remain in the range that has contained the EUR/USD for seems like an eternity. This Thursday we have the Draghi roadshow, with an ECB interest rate decision and press conference. Something in my brain tells me that despite long lines of unemployed people in many Eurozone countries and DEFLATION worries all over the Eurozone, the ECB will not act…they will simply kick another can down the road. I want to be wrong, but the ECB history on economic matters is 100% reactive, 0% proactive.\r\nThe range that we are being held captive in is 1.3750 to 1.3950.\r\n\r\n<strong>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.6868</strong>. This pair looks like a 1.7000 test is on the cards. Yesterday, after the blowout NFP data it fell to support at 1.6830 and bounced. We are in a tight range with this pair 1.6830 to 1.6920.Having spoken with many of you (PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers) you like me are 100% engaged on the shenanigans of trading the cable. If you do not want to trade the GBP/USD trade the EUR/GBP instead.\r\n\r\n<strong>AUD/USD: Closing Price 0.9276</strong>. Big AUD news on the horizon this week, several market moving events. We closed last week pretty much unchanged from the previous week. I am now more bearish the AUD/USD, but I want to hear and read what the RBA release to the markets this week before getting myself committed one way or another, I want review MY PROBABILITIES! The range is 0.9200 to 0.9315.\r\n\r\n<strong>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8655</strong>. I hate the Kiwi currency. Of all the currencies that I look at each day it is the one most affected by cross-rates. The AUD/NZD is repositioning itself lower and as a result the AUD drops and the NZD strengthens. My only happy thought on the NZD/USD is that it is well regarded as the most over-extended, over-valued currency in the Forex market and as such it is setting itself up for a major fall from these lofty heights. This despite what RBNZ Wheeler might say. Remember Wheeler says something with one hand and says the opposite with the other. He kind of wants his cake and to eat it at the same time. The range that I am now considering is wider than the initial range that has contained the pair recently. I think that this pair is the classic false breakout / breakdown currency pair. My range is 0.8500 to 0.8750.\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.0972.</strong> Talk about a currency pair that cannot make its mind up whether it is moving lower or higher. The good thing is for people like myself who are long is that it has held up fairly well. Major trend line support is at 1.0850. This is a multi year trend line and as long as we are above this I am bullish. The range is 1.0940 to 1.1060.\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.8778</strong>. After NFP yesterday we rose 40 pips and gave back 55 pips. I am a nervous long with this pair, but my position size is small. Should tensions spill in Ukraine / Russia this is the European safe haven. I am concerned that we may fall to 0.8500 before getting a firm footing to bounce. We are now below 0.8800 once again. The next line in the sand is support at 0.8695. I will not get excited as a long side trader of this pair until we break through 0.8870.<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/JPY: Closing Price 102.18. </strong>The closing price unchanged from last weeks’ close, this pair to me looks like its about to fall off a cliff. Support is strong at 102.00 below there I suspect stops are between 101.80 and 101.90. If they get taken out in a huge fall, the next big support is 101.00. Resistance is good at 102.80.<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>4. MAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:</strong>\r\n\r\nSUNDAY: CNY – HSBC Manufacturing PMi.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: AUD – RBA Rate Statement, Cash Rate and Annual Budget\r\nTUESDAY: CAD – Trade balance and IVEY PMi.\r\nTUESDAY: NZD - Employment Change and Employment Rate.\r\nTUESDAY: AUD – Retail Sales.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – Janet Yellen Testimony.\r\nWEDNESDAY: AUD – Employment Change and Unemployment Rate.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: GBP – BOE Bank Rate.\r\nTHURSDAY: EUR – Interest Rate and Press Conference.\r\nTHURSDAY: AUD – RBA Monetary Policy Statement.\r\nTHURSDAY: CNY – CPi.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: CAD: - Employment Change and Unemployment Rate.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>5. THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong>\r\n\r\nI have made several references to the PREMIUM SERVICE during this blog. The reason for that is that the PREMIUM SERVICE blog is more detailed and contains more information that the free WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU version.\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber only service that provides my subscribers with the following: -\r\n\r\nTHE DAILY FX POST – this is a daily blog that goes directly to the secure subscriber area of the my website. This daily blog contains a brief overview of my thoughts each day on major FX news and reviews of key economic data. It also has trade set-ups for trades that are on my radar. I provide set ups for trades based upon three styles of trade, FLASH, RADAR or FUNDAMENTAL. This goal of this daily blog is to set traders up with a thought process for the day.\r\n\r\nTWITTER – an exclusive protected twitter feed. This adds to the DAILY FX POST throughout the following day and night with trade set-ups, updates and my thoughts on the market as it moves. If trades come into play I tweet them as my chart analysis is completed.\r\n\r\nTHE PREMIUM SERVICE BLOG – This is a more comprehensive review of the week just gone and the week ahead. It includes training sections and RADAR trades plus on going performance reviews of existing trades and my thoughts moving forward.\r\n\r\nTHE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS ONLY WEBSITE – This holds details of all trades, whether FLASH, RADAR or FUNDAMENTAL. Excel spreadsheets analyse the profit / loss performances all current trades and I also measure the year to date performances. The website also includes several sections containing training materials that are being added to weekly to provide traders with a comprehensive library of information. In the future, Webinars will be added and I am looking into a TRADER’s CHATROOM option, which would take the PREMIUM SERVICE on-line capabilities to the next level.\r\n\r\nIf this is something that interests you. If you go to the main website at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> on the welcome page on the top left you will see headings such as PREMIUM SERVICE, SPECIAL OFFERS and SIGN-UP all of these contain further information about the PREMIUM SERVICE and how to subscribe.\r\n\r\nThere is now a low cost trial option of $20.00 for 4 weeks membership<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>THE PREMIUM SERVICE - TRADING SUMMARY:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>RADAR, FLASH and FUNDAMENTAL TRADES</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>APRIL 2014 and YEAR to date:</strong>\r\n\r\nBelow I show the up to date performances for my various trading styles. Full excel spreadsheets are in the subscriber area of the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/TRADE-SUMMARY1-03052014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-3584\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/TRADE-SUMMARY1-03052014.png\" alt=\"TRADE SUMMARY1 03052014\" width=\"457\" height=\"414\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/TRADE-SUMMARY2-03052014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-3585\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/TRADE-SUMMARY2-03052014.png\" alt=\"TRADE SUMMARY2 03052014\" width=\"529\" height=\"418\" /></a>\r\n\r\nThe above examples are for illustration purposes only:\r\n\r\nThe profitability examples detailed above are based solely upon single lot trading, regardless of lot type. If multiple lot sizes are traded the profitability margins will be different than those shown.\r\n\r\nJust to provide more information so you understand where I am coming from with the risk / reward statements above. All of my trades are of different sizes and different size lot types. The above does not reflect the actual trading performance, but it does show you the direction of the performance of the trades placed.\r\n\r\nI like to add to trades, profits are taken as the trade progresses and my overall cost average moves several times. All of my trades are of different lot styles. I trade a mixture of micro lots, mini lots and standard lots across my brokers.\r\n\r\nThe above results simply display your profit or loss if you placed a single lot trade on all the set-ups suggested and did nothing else<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>7. FINAL THOUGHTS:</strong>\r\n\r\nDespite a very volatile move last Friday following Non Farm Payrolls release in the U.S. we are still range bound with most of the Forex market.\r\n\r\nThere are some high profile news events this week that should get the markets moving along. We are still sitting in ranges at the moment in many different markets so unless the high profile news moves us, we could be no better off than we are right now. So this week you have to be ready for false breakouts and false breakdowns. There are so many inflection points close by in equities, bonds and the Forex markets, it is really no wonder that we have been in a chop fest for quite sometime.\r\n\r\nThe only thoughts that I can add are, that it is the same for everyone. Everyone looks at the same charts as we do day after day and I have no doubt that they are equally frustrated by the ranges that we are currently stuck within. The key is to be lighter on position sizes and ready to move. With this in mind we have to watch our lead indicators: -\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>GOLD</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>COPPER</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>WTi Crude Oil</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>U.S. 10-Year Treasury</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>S&amp;P</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>AUD/USD</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>USD/CAD</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>USD/SEK</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>And</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>USD/JPY with 6J index</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong> </strong></p>\r\nBy watching these we will get a heads up, if they all follow suit and correlate the way they should we will get a move we want. If they fail to correlate this is what can cause a false breakout or false breakdown.\r\n\r\nDo not be complacent in any aspect of your trading at this time. You should only trade within your TRADING PLAN guidelines as per the examples I have written about and posted to the PREMIUM SERVICE trading essentials section of the website. You should at this time, trade smaller position sizes with stops in place that are within the guidelines of your TRADING PLAN. If my stops are too wide for you, reduce your position sizes to stay within your TRADING PLAN guidelines.\r\n\r\nTake care and good luck. Be careful with position sizes.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nSaturday May 3rd 2014\r\n\r\nEMAIL / FOLLOW ME AT:\r\ndrivethru@weeklyfxdrivethru.com\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\nGoogle+/scottpickering\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','THE NEW NORMAL…WHAT IS NORMAL?','','inherit','open','closed','','3596-revision-v1','','','2014-05-03 10:22:45','2014-05-03 15:22:45','',3596,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/3596-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(3598,1,'2014-05-03 10:24:37','2014-05-03 15:24:37','<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>1. INTRODUCTION:</strong>\r\n\r\nThe roller coaster ride in trading the Forex market continues.\r\n\r\nI wrote today’s FUNDAMENTAL TRADERS OVERVIEW (The Premium Service),   or, THE VIEW FROM MY TRADING DESK (The Weekly Fx Drive Thru), towards the end of last week after a frustrating couple of trading sessions.\r\n\r\nWriting this article was pretty good timing really, given the week that has just gone by and especially after yesterdays events that followed the U.S. Non Farm Data release. I really do believe that many traders whether in equities / bonds / forex have either, just closed their accounts and given up, or, had their accounts wiped out. I have read so many articles over the past few weeks about how difficult it is to trade at the moment. I have been blogging about this matter since early March and, initially I thought it was just myself finding difficulty. But it appears many different traders are in the same boat. My “trading peers” group, as I call us, have all been on the same page for sometime, so I knew that something was up and it was not just me, but the articles that I have recently read are confirmation.\r\n\r\nYou can read what I think about it all later in this blog that you are reading, whether it be from the PREMIUM SERVICE or the WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU. For PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers I have also as promised included a section under TRADER TOPICS that deals with increasing your probabilities in trading.\r\n\r\nThis week’s blogs are 100% focused on how best to deal with a dysfunctional, chop fest of a market. As I constantly keeping writing and saying use your TRADING PLAN, PLAN YOUR TRADES but for now take smaller position sizes to limit risk. We are traders, but in essence we are RISK ASSESSORS and we apply RISK MANAGEMENT behavior to our day-to-day functionality.\r\n\r\nDespite the market shenanigans, the trading accounts related to the PREMIUM SERVICE still showed a profit from the trade set-ups in April. To say that I am delighted is an under-statement of huge proportions. My “trading peers” were basically flat on last month. Sounds good…but the drinks are on me!!\r\n\r\nI have updated the format of my reporting on the PREMIUM SERVICE trading performance, it is now linked to one of my computers through excel. If anyone has difficulty understanding the calculations, do not hesitate to contact me via email at either <a href=\"mailto:drivethru@weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">drivethru@weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> or <a href=\"mailto:premiumservice@weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">premiumservice@weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> I would be delighted to explain the calculations.\r\n\r\nComing up this week in the news that should be market moving for Forex traders, we have Interest Rate decisions and statements from the RBA, ECB and BOE plus the Yellen testimony and CAD and NZD Employment numbers, a busy week indeed. Get the Prozak, Jack Daniels plus a stress toy on the ready. Like everyone else I cannot predict what is ahead, but given the continued on-going developments between Ukraine and Russia, I would predict a bumpy ride for the foreseeable future…..enjoy!!\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>2. THE VIEW FROM MY TRADING DESK:</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>THE NEW NORMAL…WHAT IS NORMAL?</strong></p>\r\nI do not want to sound like a broken record by complaining continuously about how difficult it is to trade in the current market conditions, but it is my considered opinion after reading, watching and listening to lots and lots of financial data and financial experts….that the current Forex market is 100% dysfunctional and sucks!\r\n\r\nSince writing weekly blogs such as THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU, which, I started over two years ago, it has prompted me to research more, get more knowledgeable on fundamental world economic news events and also get more detailed with technical chart analysis. What does make me laugh a little at the moment is that none of that really counts to survive in Forex Trading at the present time.\r\n\r\nAlmost on a daily basis we see moves up and down by 20-30 S&amp;P points, this volatility is NOT normal, yet it has been something that we have been living with for week and after week after week. The “Chop Fest” that has been the Forex market makes it extremely difficult to trade. There are no real trends like we used to be able to latch onto. It is perilous at times.\r\n\r\nGeo-political news like the tensions in Ukraine/Russia are not dominating the Forex moves on a daily basis the way one might of expected. To a large extent the markets appear to ignore the tensions, as nowadays, there are no deployments of troops on the ground in war zones anymore. But every now and then the rhetoric does get a little out of hand and the Forex markets react. I look to GOLD to guide me and then look to the relationship that GOLD and the USD has, and nothing. GOLD doesn\'t necessarily rise on tensions, in fact I have seen it drop through support but the parallel relationship with the USD is no longer correlated. WTF?\r\n\r\nThe S&amp;P trades at highs and the AUD/USD and NZD/USD are falling. The S&amp;P around 1,900 is at all-time highs, yet the AUD/USD cannot get above parity. One would have thought that its correlation with the stock market would have seen the AUD/USD at 1.1600 or even higher. WTF?\r\n\r\nI can highlight more correlations out of sync, I have written about them in a many previous blogs and I do not want to repeat myself again. The bottom line is correlations are mostly off. We have diverging markets.\r\n\r\nGiven the market “Yo-Yo” / “Chop Fest”, I can guarantee you that the Forex market has lost many, many home based traders, whether full or part time. In addition, Equity traders will also be feeling the pinch as they have been on the “Buy The Dip” mode for the past six years ever since the financial crisis. This is the major problem of a one sided directional market, because as soon as it changes like it has more recently, the “Chop Fest” virtually negates buying the dip and some very long established traders are getting smashed / creamed.\r\n\r\nWhat is normal?\r\n\r\nWhen I started thinking about writing this three things immediately jumped out from the page and I thought, this will do as a start: -\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li>No Central bank Intervention.</li>\r\n	<li>No Quantitative Easing or equivalent.</li>\r\n	<li>Interest Rates actually go up and move down freely.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nI think one of the hardest things that all traders are trying to come to terms with is that U.S. Monetary Policy for the past 5 years changed with the introduction of “Tapering”. This did not have the immediate effect that I thought that it would have had, in particular, with USD strength coming through the markets. However, it has created jitters and huge uncertainty as equity markets grab all-time highs and the calls for an equity market pullback, or correction meant that buying at the highs has added to the “Chop Fest” scenario as we are seeing technical chart analysis at extremes. The Forex market is tightly range bound and all this added together with so many inflections points gives us what we have, which is a very volatile, “Chop Fest”.\r\n\r\nI want to remain a Forex Trader.\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>I have given myself the additional responsibility of adding THE PREMIUM SERVICE to my “job”.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>I describe myself as a Fundamental first then Technical swing trader / longer-term position trader.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>I select trade-set ups and post them to my subscribers. I have to my best ability tried to ensure even lower risk trades are suggested that will generate $$$.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nRight now, my trading style from above is out of the window. Like many other Forex traders I have to adapt and survive.\r\n\r\nI am a Scalper, a “Pull-Back” trader at best in these conditions, trying to be a swing-trader.\r\n\r\nThe 80 -100 pip profitable trades have in the main disappeared. I have had to lower my expectations to 20-30 pip trades. I have to exit before I would normally do so. There are hardly any trend trades. I no longer just look at the EUR/USD or USD/JPY. I have traded more exotic pairs in 2014 than the previous 7 years added together. I am adapting to the current normal…whatever normal now is?\r\n\r\nMy daily targets are severely reduced, in fact they are 50% of what I detailed in my TRADING PLAN goals and objectives.\r\n\r\nWhat I am in fact saying is “THE NEW NORMAL” is what it is at the time you research and place your trade.\r\n\r\nNormal is nothing…it’s all about adapting to what it is “NEW” at the time you place a trade.\r\n\r\nAs traders we cannot rely on anything for confirmation at the moment as so many parallels and correlations mean nothing.\r\n\r\nI remember writing not so long ago that the first thing I did in the morning was check “The Holy Trinity” (Gold, Copper and WTi), I still do but I no longer rely on them the way I used to as I am scalping or at best my longer term trades that I still try to let run are really based of the “Pullback Strategy”. Yes, I look at Fibonacci levels, and yes I look at pivot points to attempt to gain the best entry prices and yes, I do look at 100 and 200 day SMA’s. But they are less and less of real importance in comparison to six months ago.\r\n\r\nThe only things to add, that I consider the critical success factors to present day Forex trading survival…\r\n\r\nTRADE SMALLER POSITION SIZES.\r\n\r\nWIDEN YOUR STOPS TO ALLOW FOR THE CHOP FEST AND THE INCREASED VOLATILITY.\r\n\r\nUSE MULTIPLE MICRO LOTS TO GIVE YOU MORE FLEXIBILITY.\r\n\r\nUSE YOUR MONEY AND ACCOUNT MANAGEMENT PRINCIPLES TO ENSURE THAT YOUR ACCOUNT DOES NOT GET NEGATED.\r\n\r\nDO NOT GET HUNG UP ON THE USD MAJORS. LOOK AT THE COMMODITY CROSSES. THEY OFFER AN OPTION THAT CAN KEEP YOU INVOLVED WITH TRENDS SUCH AS THEY ARE BUT KEEP YOU OUT OF THE USD.\r\n\r\nCONSIDER THE NORDIC CURRENCIES AS AN OPTION, ALTHOUGH EUROZONE LINKED THEY ARE STILL TO A LARGE EXTENT DIRECTIONAL.\r\n\r\nPLAN YOUR TRADES AND TRADE YOUR TRADING PLAN.\r\n\r\nIF IN DOUBT, DO NOT COMMIT TO THE TRADE, STAY IN $$$. SOMETIMES THE BEST TRADES ARE THE ONES YOU WALK AWAY FROM.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>3. LOOKING FORWARD…THE KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS:</strong><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3873.</strong> Despite all the rhetoric and verbal intervention by the ECB we remain in the range that has contained the EUR/USD for seems like an eternity. This Thursday we have the Draghi roadshow, with an ECB interest rate decision and press conference. Something in my brain tells me that despite long lines of unemployed people in many Eurozone countries and DEFLATION worries all over the Eurozone, the ECB will not act…they will simply kick another can down the road. I want to be wrong, but the ECB history on economic matters is 100% reactive, 0% proactive.\r\nThe range that we are being held captive in is 1.3750 to 1.3950.\r\n\r\n<strong>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.6868</strong>. This pair looks like a 1.7000 test is on the cards. Yesterday, after the blowout NFP data it fell to support at 1.6830 and bounced. We are in a tight range with this pair 1.6830 to 1.6920.Having spoken with many of you (PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers) you like me are 100% engaged on the shenanigans of trading the cable. If you do not want to trade the GBP/USD trade the EUR/GBP instead.\r\n\r\n<strong>AUD/USD: Closing Price 0.9276</strong>. Big AUD news on the horizon this week, several market moving events. We closed last week pretty much unchanged from the previous week. I am now more bearish the AUD/USD, but I want to hear and read what the RBA release to the markets this week before getting myself committed one way or another, I want review MY PROBABILITIES! The range is 0.9200 to 0.9315.\r\n\r\n<strong>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8655</strong>. I hate the Kiwi currency. Of all the currencies that I look at each day it is the one most affected by cross-rates. The AUD/NZD is repositioning itself lower and as a result the AUD drops and the NZD strengthens. My only happy thought on the NZD/USD is that it is well regarded as the most over-extended, over-valued currency in the Forex market and as such it is setting itself up for a major fall from these lofty heights. This despite what RBNZ Wheeler might say. Remember Wheeler says something with one hand and says the opposite with the other. He kind of wants his cake and to eat it at the same time. The range that I am now considering is wider than the initial range that has contained the pair recently. I think that this pair is the classic false breakout / breakdown currency pair. My range is 0.8500 to 0.8750.\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.0972.</strong> Talk about a currency pair that cannot make its mind up whether it is moving lower or higher. The good thing is for people like myself who are long is that it has held up fairly well. Major trend line support is at 1.0850. This is a multi year trend line and as long as we are above this I am bullish. The range is 1.0940 to 1.1060.\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.8778</strong>. After NFP yesterday we rose 40 pips and gave back 55 pips. I am a nervous long with this pair, but my position size is small. Should tensions spill in Ukraine / Russia this is the European safe haven. I am concerned that we may fall to 0.8500 before getting a firm footing to bounce. We are now below 0.8800 once again. The next line in the sand is support at 0.8695. I will not get excited as a long side trader of this pair until we break through 0.8870.<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/JPY: Closing Price 102.18. </strong>The closing price unchanged from last weeks’ close, this pair to me looks like its about to fall off a cliff. Support is strong at 102.00 below there I suspect stops are between 101.80 and 101.90. If they get taken out in a huge fall, the next big support is 101.00. Resistance is good at 102.80.<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>4. MAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:</strong>\r\n\r\nSUNDAY: CNY – HSBC Manufacturing PMi.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: AUD – RBA Rate Statement, Cash Rate and Annual Budget\r\nTUESDAY: CAD – Trade balance and IVEY PMi.\r\nTUESDAY: NZD - Employment Change and Employment Rate.\r\nTUESDAY: AUD – Retail Sales.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – Janet Yellen Testimony.\r\nWEDNESDAY: AUD – Employment Change and Unemployment Rate.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: GBP – BOE Bank Rate.\r\nTHURSDAY: EUR – Interest Rate and Press Conference.\r\nTHURSDAY: AUD – RBA Monetary Policy Statement.\r\nTHURSDAY: CNY – CPi.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: CAD: - Employment Change and Unemployment Rate.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>5. THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong>\r\n\r\nI have made several references to the PREMIUM SERVICE during this blog. The reason for that is that the PREMIUM SERVICE blog is more detailed and contains more information that the free WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU version.\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber only service that provides my subscribers with the following: -\r\n\r\nTHE DAILY FX POST – this is a daily blog that goes directly to the secure subscriber area of the my website. This daily blog contains a brief overview of my thoughts each day on major FX news and reviews of key economic data. It also has trade set-ups for trades that are on my radar. I provide set ups for trades based upon three styles of trade, FLASH, RADAR or FUNDAMENTAL. This goal of this daily blog is to set traders up with a thought process for the day.\r\n\r\nTWITTER – an exclusive protected twitter feed. This adds to the DAILY FX POST throughout the following day and night with trade set-ups, updates and my thoughts on the market as it moves. If trades come into play I tweet them as my chart analysis is completed.\r\n\r\nTHE PREMIUM SERVICE BLOG – This is a more comprehensive review of the week just gone and the week ahead. It includes training sections and RADAR trades plus on going performance reviews of existing trades and my thoughts moving forward.\r\n\r\nTHE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS ONLY WEBSITE – This holds details of all trades, whether FLASH, RADAR or FUNDAMENTAL. Excel spreadsheets analyse the profit / loss performances all current trades and I also measure the year to date performances. The website also includes several sections containing training materials that are being added to weekly to provide traders with a comprehensive library of information. In the future, Webinars will be added and I am looking into a TRADER’s CHATROOM option, which would take the PREMIUM SERVICE on-line capabilities to the next level.\r\n\r\nIf this is something that interests you. If you go to the main website at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> on the welcome page on the top left you will see headings such as PREMIUM SERVICE, SPECIAL OFFERS and SIGN-UP all of these contain further information about the PREMIUM SERVICE and how to subscribe.\r\n\r\nThere is now a low cost trial option of $20.00 for 4 weeks membership<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>THE PREMIUM SERVICE - TRADING SUMMARY:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>RADAR, FLASH and FUNDAMENTAL TRADES</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>APRIL 2014 and YEAR to date:</strong>\r\n\r\nBelow I show the up to date performances for my various trading styles. Full excel spreadsheets are in the subscriber area of the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/TRADE-SUMMARY1-03052014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-3584\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/TRADE-SUMMARY1-03052014.png\" alt=\"TRADE SUMMARY1 03052014\" width=\"457\" height=\"414\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/TRADE-SUMMARY2-03052014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-3585\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/TRADE-SUMMARY2-03052014.png\" alt=\"TRADE SUMMARY2 03052014\" width=\"529\" height=\"418\" /></a>\r\n\r\nThe above examples are for illustration purposes only:\r\n\r\nThe profitability examples detailed above are based solely upon single lot trading, regardless of lot type. If multiple lot sizes are traded the profitability margins will be different than those shown.\r\n\r\nJust to provide more information so you understand where I am coming from with the risk / reward statements above. All of my trades are of different sizes and different size lot types. The above does not reflect the actual trading performance, but it does show you the direction of the performance of the trades placed.\r\n\r\nI like to add to trades, profits are taken as the trade progresses and my overall cost average moves several times. All of my trades are of different lot styles. I trade a mixture of micro lots, mini lots and standard lots across my brokers.\r\n\r\nThe above results simply display your profit or loss if you placed a single lot trade on all the set-ups suggested and did nothing else<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>6. FINAL THOUGHTS:</strong>\r\n\r\nDespite a very volatile move last Friday following Non Farm Payrolls release in the U.S. we are still range bound with most of the Forex market.\r\n\r\nThere are some high profile news events this week that should get the markets moving along. We are still sitting in ranges at the moment in many different markets so unless the high profile news moves us, we could be no better off than we are right now. So this week you have to be ready for false breakouts and false breakdowns. There are so many inflection points close by in equities, bonds and the Forex markets, it is really no wonder that we have been in a chop fest for quite sometime.\r\n\r\nThe only thoughts that I can add are, that it is the same for everyone. Everyone looks at the same charts as we do day after day and I have no doubt that they are equally frustrated by the ranges that we are currently stuck within. The key is to be lighter on position sizes and ready to move. With this in mind we have to watch our lead indicators: -\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>GOLD</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>COPPER</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>WTi Crude Oil</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>U.S. 10-Year Treasury</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>S&amp;P</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>AUD/USD</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>USD/CAD</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>USD/SEK</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>And</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>USD/JPY with 6J index</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong> </strong></p>\r\nBy watching these we will get a heads up, if they all follow suit and correlate the way they should we will get a move we want. If they fail to correlate this is what can cause a false breakout or false breakdown.\r\n\r\nDo not be complacent in any aspect of your trading at this time. You should only trade within your TRADING PLAN guidelines as per the examples I have written about and posted to the PREMIUM SERVICE trading essentials section of the website. You should at this time, trade smaller position sizes with stops in place that are within the guidelines of your TRADING PLAN. If my stops are too wide for you, reduce your position sizes to stay within your TRADING PLAN guidelines.\r\n\r\nTake care and good luck. Be careful with position sizes.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nSaturday May 3rd 2014\r\n\r\nEMAIL / FOLLOW ME AT:\r\ndrivethru@weeklyfxdrivethru.com\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\nGoogle+/scottpickering\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','THE NEW NORMAL…WHAT IS NORMAL?','','inherit','open','closed','','3596-revision-v1','','','2014-05-03 10:24:37','2014-05-03 15:24:37','',3596,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/3596-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(3603,1,'2014-05-05 07:23:01','2014-05-05 12:23:01','Good Morning,\r\n\r\nI hope you all had a great weekend.\r\n\r\nNothing that much to talk about to-day except the JPY and the two CAD trades from last week.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>JPY:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nThe JPY is strong at the moment and it could breakdown. Here is my thinking; the last time that JPY took control when the Forex market was in stagnation mode, like it is now (we are range bound and in tighter ranges than usual), the USD sold off in mega proportions. The AUD/USD, NZD/USD, EUR/USD &amp; GBP/USD all rose to highs before eventually pulling back. The USD/CHF and USD/CAD dropped like lead balloons.\r\n\r\nIf this happens to-day as the USD is in a far more precarious position than last time the USD sell off could be much more and we could be seeing a new step lower.\r\n\r\nI will focus on the USD/JPY but the same principle will apple across the JPY cross-rates pairs, just be careful of the cross-rate JPY pairs as they will influence the opposite USD major and they can be spiky!!\r\n\r\nKey support in the USD/JPY is at 101.50. It it breaks through this level it could be quite a breakdown. The big risk with the cross-rate pairs is if the USD/JPY breaks 101.50.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>CAD:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nThe two trades could be very interesting if we see the USD/JPY break down. To be Conservative, maybe just take one trade. If I decide to set-up one of these I will tweet.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nIt really is all eyes on the JPY.\r\nDOW FUTURES are coming under pressure now as well. 16,300 could be the target.\r\nNASDAQ is rolling over as well.\r\nE MINI futures is sitting on support.\r\nGOLD is strong, we could re-test $1,330.\r\nCopper is doing nothing.\r\nOil is struggling with $100.00.\r\nThe 6J is holding for now, but it looks to be pushing lower, this will let us know how the JPY will perform.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott','#24 - THE DAILY FX POST, Monday 5th May 2014','','inherit','open','closed','','3602-revision-v1','','','2014-05-05 07:23:01','2014-05-05 12:23:01','',3602,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/3602-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(3671,1,'2014-05-13 07:13:41','2014-05-13 12:13:41','Good Morning,\r\n\r\nSorry, I forgot to welcome the new subscribers from the weekend yesterday....belated greetings and welcome.\r\n\r\nI have a gut feeling that U.S. equities are going to roll over today so that will hopefully generate some FX movement. Yesterday, was like an August trading day, it was really slow and very boring.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>EUR/USD:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nThe EUR/USD looks like it is about to test 1.3685 sometime today and if it holds I will be reducing my position size in this pair by 50% from the current size. I still have a longer goal that this pair is going to 1.3450.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>GBP/USD:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nOn the 240M chart there is a \"Head and Shoulders\" pattern developing but we need to see a confirmed break of 1.6820 to confirm that it is in play. The measured move in 1.6650.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>EUR/GBP:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nThis is trading very heavy at the moment and as you know it is the inverse of the GBP/CHF. If the GBP/CHF breaks out (I already have a limit order in place), I will look to short this pair.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>NZD/USD:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nRetail sales data is released later today and RBNZ Wheeler talks after that. I expect him to try and talk down the NZD as best he can when he delivers his speech. If you are not already short, an entry between 0.8650 and 0.8670 looks great with solid support sitting at 0.8600. If this pair breaks thru 0.8600, it should be a great move lower. I am already short and I will add on a break below 0.8600.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nI am also looking at the commodity crosses some of these have been beaten up really bad of late and key support levels are close.\r\n\r\nI will tweet any new set-ups,\r\n\r\nGood Luck trading today, lets hope we see some moves,\r\n\r\nScott','#29 - THE DAILY FX POST, Tuesday 13th May 2014','','publish','open','closed','','29-daily-fx-post-tuesday-13th-may-2014','','','2014-05-13 07:13:41','2014-05-13 12:13:41','',0,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?post_type=member_posts&#038;p=3671',0,'member_posts','',0),(3624,16,'2014-05-05 09:24:23','2014-05-05 14:24:23','','Blog-dates2014','','inherit','open','closed','','blog-dates2014','','','2014-05-05 09:24:23','2014-05-05 14:24:23','',2772,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/Blog-dates2014.jpg',0,'attachment','image/jpeg',0),(3606,16,'2014-05-05 08:06:01','2014-05-05 13:06:01','','Blog-dates2015','','inherit','open','closed','','blog-dates2015','','','2014-05-05 08:06:01','2014-05-05 13:06:01','',2772,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/Blog-dates2015.jpg',0,'attachment','image/jpeg',0),(3607,16,'2016-05-05 11:12:15','2016-05-05 16:12:15','<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/Blog-dates2015.jpg\"><img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-3606\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/Blog-dates2015.jpg\" alt=\"Blog-dates2015\" width=\"534\" /></a>\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/2016-blog-dates.jpg\"><img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-4997\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/2016-blog-dates.jpg\" alt=\"Blog Dates 2016\" width=\"534\" height=\"773\" /></a>\n\n\n&nbsp;','Blog Dates','','inherit','open','closed','','2772-autosave-v1','','','2016-05-05 11:12:15','2016-05-05 16:12:15','',2772,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/2772-autosave-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(4997,16,'2015-01-05 11:11:55','2015-01-05 16:11:55','','2016-blog-dates','','inherit','open','closed','','2016-blog-dates','','','2015-01-05 11:12:10','2015-01-05 16:12:10','',2772,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/2016-blog-dates.jpg',0,'attachment','image/jpeg',0),(3622,1,'2014-05-05 08:47:20','2014-05-05 13:47:20','&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/PREMIUM-SERVICE-BLOG-DATES-2014.xlsx\">PREMIUM SERVICE - BLOG DATES 2014</a><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/Blog-dates2015.jpg\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-3606\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/Blog-dates2015.jpg\" alt=\"Blog-dates2015\" width=\"534\" height=\"792\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','Blog Dates','','inherit','open','closed','','2772-revision-v1','','','2014-05-05 08:47:20','2014-05-05 13:47:20','',2772,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/2772-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(3608,16,'2014-05-05 08:06:45','2014-05-05 13:06:45','<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/Blog-dates2014.jpg\"><img src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/Blog-dates2014.jpg\" alt=\"Blog dates 2014\" width=\"534\" height=\"792\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-3605\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/Blog-dates2015.jpg\"><img src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/Blog-dates2015.jpg\" alt=\"Blog-dates2015\" width=\"534\" height=\"792\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-3606\" /></a>\r\n\r\n','Blog Dates','','inherit','open','closed','','2772-revision-v1','','','2014-05-05 08:06:45','2014-05-05 13:06:45','',2772,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/2772-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(3609,16,'2015-12-07 11:19:25','2015-12-07 16:19:25','<section class=\"one-sixth first\">\n<h4>Fundamental Trades Archives</h4>\n<div class=\"menu\"><a class=\"flashmenu-item\" href=\"#\">2015</a></div>\n</section><section class=\"five-sixths\">\n<div class=\"one-half first\">\n<h2>This Month\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/FUN1-30112015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6928\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/FUN1-30112015.png\" alt=\"FUN1 30112015\" width=\"522\" height=\"589\" /></a><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/FUN2-30112015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6929\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/FUN2-30112015.png\" alt=\"FUN2 30112015\" width=\"512\" height=\"593\" /></a></h2>\n&nbsp;\n\n&nbsp;\n\n&nbsp;\n\n&nbsp;\n\n&nbsp;\n\n&nbsp;\n\n&nbsp;\n\n</div>\n<div class=\"one-half\">\n<h2>Year to date\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/FUN-YTD-NOV2015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6930\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/FUN-YTD-NOV2015.png\" alt=\"FUN YTD NOV2015\" width=\"415\" height=\"443\" /></a></h2>\n&nbsp;\n\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/FUNDAMENTAL-YTD-JULY31.png\">\n</a>\n<h2>PREVIOUS YEARS</h2>\n<h2><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/FUNDAMENTAL-31122014-YTD-.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-4958\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/FUNDAMENTAL-31122014-YTD-.png\" alt=\"FUNDAMENTAL 31122014 YTD\" width=\"350\" height=\"375\" /></a></h2>\n\n<h2>PART-TIME TRADER TRADES</h2>\n<h2>\n</h2>\n</div>\n\n</section>','FUNDAMENTAL TRADES','','inherit','open','closed','','3106-autosave-v1','','','2015-12-07 11:19:25','2015-12-07 16:19:25','',3106,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/3106-autosave-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(3626,16,'2014-05-05 09:25:30','2014-05-05 14:25:30','<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/Blog-dates2014.jpg\"><img src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/Blog-dates2014.jpg\" alt=\"Blog dates 2014\" width=\"534\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-3624\" /></a>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/Blog-dates2015.jpg\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-3606\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/Blog-dates2015.jpg\" alt=\"Blog-dates2015\" width=\"534\" height=\"792\" /></a>\r\n','Blog Dates','','inherit','open','closed','','2772-revision-v1','','','2014-05-05 09:25:30','2014-05-05 14:25:30','',2772,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/2772-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(3625,16,'2014-05-05 09:25:10','2014-05-05 14:25:10','<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/Blog-dates2014.jpg\"><img src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/Blog-dates2014.jpg\" alt=\"Blog dates 2014\" width=\"534\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-3624\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/PREMIUM-SERVICE-BLOG-DATES-2014.xlsx\">PREMIUM SERVICE - BLOG DATES 2014</a><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/Blog-dates2015.jpg\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-3606\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/Blog-dates2015.jpg\" alt=\"Blog-dates2015\" width=\"534\" height=\"792\" /></a>\r\n','Blog Dates','','inherit','open','closed','','2772-revision-v1','','','2014-05-05 09:25:10','2014-05-05 14:25:10','',2772,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/2772-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(3627,16,'2014-05-05 09:26:23','2014-05-05 14:26:23','<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/Blog-dates2014.jpg\"><img src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/Blog-dates2014.jpg\" alt=\"Blog dates 2014\" width=\"534\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-3624\" /></a>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/Blog-dates2015.jpg\"><img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-3606\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/Blog-dates2015.jpg\" alt=\"Blog-dates2015\" width=\"534\" /></a>\r\n','Blog Dates','','inherit','open','closed','','2772-revision-v1','','','2014-05-05 09:26:23','2014-05-05 14:26:23','',2772,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/2772-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(3629,1,'2014-05-06 06:36:26','2014-05-06 11:36:26','<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>A USD BLOODBATH:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nLooking at the markets it looks like the USD index could be at the start of a huge breakdown. The next trend line (240M CHART) support has given way and horizontal support lies at around 78.50. After this it could get ugly.\r\n\r\nIn the FX market the tight ranges have been blasted apart and what wrote about yesterday regarding the behaviour of the USD/JPY is <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>NOW</strong></span> in play. This currency to break the FX levels wide apart. The big momentum moves have taken place, pulling stops etc, but there has been no pullback.....we are consolidating. This would normally mean we will move again after a period of consolidation.\r\n\r\nLooking at the USD majors here are were I see todays moves, extending to maybe even further: -\r\n\r\nEUR/USD: 1.4000\r\nGBP/USD: 1.7000\r\nUSD/CHF: 0.8700\r\nUSD/CAD: 1.0850\r\nAUD/USD: 0.9500\r\nNZD/USD: 0.8850\r\n\r\nNo one is finding value in the USD at the moment...very, very shallow pullbacks if any. I think if the momentum starts again, these targets are possible.','#25 - THE DAILY FX POST, Tuesday 6th May 2014','','inherit','open','closed','','3628-revision-v1','','','2014-05-06 06:36:26','2014-05-06 11:36:26','',3628,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/3628-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(3630,1,'2014-05-06 07:05:14','2014-05-06 12:05:14','<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>A USD BLOODBATH:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nLooking at the markets it looks like the USD index could be at the start of a huge breakdown. The next trend line (240M CHART) support has given way and horizontal support lies at around 78.50. After this it could get ugly.\r\n\r\nIn the FX market the tight ranges have been blasted apart and what wrote about yesterday regarding the behaviour of the USD/JPY is <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>NOW</strong></span> in play. This currency to break the FX levels wide apart. The big momentum moves have taken place, pulling stops etc, but there has been no pullback.....we are consolidating. This would normally mean we will move again after a period of consolidation.\r\n\r\nLooking at the USD majors here are were I see todays moves, extending to maybe even further: -\r\n\r\nEUR/USD: 1.4000\r\nGBP/USD: 1.7000\r\nUSD/CHF: 0.8700\r\nUSD/CAD: 1.0850\r\nAUD/USD: 0.9400\r\nNZD/USD: 0.8850\r\nUSD/JPY: 101.20\r\n\r\nNo one is finding value in the USD at the moment...very, very shallow pullbacks if any. I think if the momentum starts again, these targets are possible and maybe even more. I do not think that this is a time to pick tops, but having said that shorting the EUR/USD at around 1.4000, just over to allow for stops could make sense intra-day.\r\n\r\nI have a few ideas and I will tweet these when I complete my chart analysis. I would like to enter on pullbacks to go in the direction of the momentum moves already seen, and it difficult I think on trading days like today to get a reasonable 45 minute pullback to make the entry.\r\n\r\nI think that we should also be aware that there are many big news events this week, and, we should not get carried away with too heavy a position initially. We can always add to profitable moves.\r\n\r\nI am thinking of small positions prior to the US equity open that can be added to and then review at the European close later.  Remember, US equities never go down and it is a Tuesday after all, as CNBC will no doubt state repeatedly over the next 7/8 hours.\r\n\r\nScott','#25 - THE DAILY FX POST, Tuesday 6th May 2014','','inherit','open','closed','','3628-revision-v1','','','2014-05-06 07:05:14','2014-05-06 12:05:14','',3628,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/3628-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(3632,1,'2014-05-08 07:09:38','2014-05-08 12:09:38','Good Morning / Good Day,\r\n\r\nHere we go again today, another ECB Press Conference.\r\n\r\nWhat will Draghi do?\r\n\r\nThe markets appear hell bent on a EUR/USD exchange rate of 1.4000. There are so many longs right now it\'s a little frightening. Never say never, but the ECB are reactive people not proactive. They have not acted on deflationary  statistics for months so why would they change on monetary policy to ease the EUR strength? Yes, big businesses are now complaining about high FX  charges, but history shows that the ECB could not give a rats a** about complaints from whatever area of the economy.\r\n\r\nI have no idea, it\'s all guesswork until Draghi sits down.\r\n\r\nI will be looking to add to my EUR/USD short if the EUR/USD gets above 1.4025 and if it drags the GBP/USD with it a short around 1.7050 (2009 high) looks good.\r\n\r\nThe NZD looks weak and 0.8640 is critical support that held yesterday. I will add to my NZD/USD short below this level. Remember, this pair is driven by flows, usually, when it gets directional it sticks to it. It looks like its rolling over properly. 0.8640 is key level, keep it in mind.\r\n\r\nIt\'s all eyes on the Draghi Press Conference at 0830 EDT. This news event will drive the market.\r\n\r\nIf the EUR falls check out the USD/CHF long if it breaks above 0.8770...it could squeeze above this level, but it all depends on the EUR action.\r\n\r\nI will check in on Twitter should I see something....\r\n\r\nScott\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','#26 - THE DAILY FX POST, Thursday 8th May 2014','','publish','open','closed','','26-daily-fx-post-thursday-8th-may-2014','','','2014-05-08 07:09:38','2014-05-08 12:09:38','',0,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?post_type=member_posts&#038;p=3632',0,'member_posts','',0),(3633,1,'2014-05-08 07:09:24','2014-05-08 12:09:24','Good Morning / Good Day,\r\n\r\nHere we go again today, another ECB Press Conference.\r\n\r\nWhat will Draghi do?\r\n\r\nThe markets appear hell bent on a EUR/USD exchange rate of 1.4000. There are so many longs right now it\'s a little frightening. Never say never, but the ECB are reactive people not proactive. They have not acted on deflationary  statistics for months so why would they change on monetary policy to ease the EUR strength? Yes, big businesses are now complaining about high FX  charges, but history shows that the ECB could not give a rats a** about complaints from whatever area of the economy.\r\n\r\nI have no idea, it\'s all guesswork until Draghi sits down.\r\n\r\nI will be looking to add to my EUR/USD short if the EUR/USD gets above 1.4025 and if it drags the GBP/USD with it a short around 1.7050 (2009 high) looks good.\r\n\r\nThe NZD looks weak and 0.8640 is critical support that held yesterday. I will add to my NZD/USD short below this level. Remember, this pair is driven by flows, usually, when it gets directional it sticks to it. It looks like its rolling over properly. 0.8640 is key level, keep it in mind.\r\n\r\nIt\'s all eyes on the Draghi Press Conference at 0830 EDT. This news event will drive the market.\r\n\r\nIf the EUR falls check out the USD/CHF long if it breaks above 0.8770...it could squeeze above this level, but it all depends on the EUR action.\r\n\r\nI will check in on Twitter should I see something....\r\n\r\nScott\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','#26 - THE DAILY FX POST, Thursday 8th May 2014','','inherit','open','closed','','3632-revision-v1','','','2014-05-08 07:09:24','2014-05-08 12:09:24','',3632,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/3632-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(3636,1,'2014-05-09 06:34:29','2014-05-09 11:34:29','Good Day,\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNEW TRADES ADDED OVERNIGHT (ALERTED VIA TWITTER):\r\n\r\nFT113\r\nUSD/CHF\r\nLong at 0.8808\r\nStop 0.8650\r\nLimit 0.9250\r\n\r\nFT114\r\nEUR/USD\r\nShort at 1.3837\r\nStop Loss 1.3965\r\nLimit 1.3450\r\n\r\nFT115\r\nNZD/USD\r\nShort at 0.8644\r\nStop Loss 0.8720\r\nLimit 0.8000','#27 - THE DAILY FX POST, Friday 9th May 2014','','inherit','open','closed','','3635-revision-v1','','','2014-05-09 06:34:29','2014-05-09 11:34:29','',3635,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/3635-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(3637,1,'2014-05-09 06:44:15','2014-05-09 11:44:15','Good Day,\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>NEW TRADES ADDED OVERNIGHT (ALERTED VIA TWITTER):</strong></span>\r\n\r\nFT113\r\nUSD/CHF\r\nLong at 0.8808\r\nStop 0.8650\r\nLimit 0.9250\r\n\r\nFT114\r\nEUR/USD\r\nShort at 1.3837\r\nStop Loss 1.3965\r\nLimit 1.3450\r\n\r\nFT115\r\nNZD/USD\r\nShort at 0.8644\r\nStop Loss 0.8720\r\nLimit 0.8000\r\n\r\nFT116\r\nUSD/JPY\r\nShort at 101.69\r\nStop Loss 102.10\r\nLimit 98.00\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>EXISTING TRADES STILL ACTIVE:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nFT73\r\nUSD/CHF\r\nLong at 0.8937\r\nStop Loss 0.8650\r\nLimit at 0.9250\r\n(My trade cost average is now at 0.8840..I have added three times on new lows every time)\r\n\r\nFT77\r\nEUR/USD\r\nShort at 1.3744\r\nStop Loss 1.4025\r\nLimit 1.3450\r\n(My cost average on this trade is now at 1.3835. I added short near highs yesterday as Draghi stated he was able to act in June.)\r\n\r\nFT106\r\nNZD/USD\r\nShort at 0.8533\r\nStop at 0.8920\r\nLimit at 0.8400\r\n(My trade cost average on this pair is now at 0.8665)\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nFUN14\r\nGBP/NZD\r\nLong at 1.9800\r\nStop at 1.9000\r\nLimit at 2.2350\r\n(This trade is hedged short at 1.9650)','#27 - THE DAILY FX POST, Friday 9th May 2014','','inherit','open','closed','','3635-revision-v1','','','2014-05-09 06:44:15','2014-05-09 11:44:15','',3635,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/3635-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(3638,1,'2014-05-09 07:02:58','2014-05-09 12:02:58','Good Day,\r\n\r\nWhen my mother was alive she always said that patience was a virtue.\r\n\r\nFinally the long term holdings of the USD/CHF , EUR/USD and NZD/USD are proving to profitable trades. Only the USD/CAD failed, and if I am being 100% honest, this was the pair I thought would being home the bacon!!\r\n\r\nI have 8 live trades listed below, I do not intend to enter anymore today, but I am very interested in the CAD data at 0830 EDT. I have a feeling that the CAD numbers if good could see the USDCAD at 1.0700-1.0750, if so I will be a buyer there. I may FLASH TRADE the pair lower if I can, but not sure.\r\n\r\nThe CHF looks to be on the cusp of a really big push higher, we will need to keep our eyes on this.\r\n\r\nBecause it is a Friday and there is still a great deal of Geo-Political news in the air I will probably during the morning close of some trades, probably the duplication trades from earlier today. I am still in RISK AVERSE mode and will continue to be for sometime. Collectively, the overnight trades are now +100 pips.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>NEW TRADES ADDED OVERNIGHT (ALERTED VIA TWITTER):</strong></span>\r\n\r\nFT113\r\nUSD/CHF\r\nLong at 0.8808\r\nStop 0.8650\r\nLimit 0.9250\r\n\r\nFT114\r\nEUR/USD\r\nShort at 1.3837\r\nStop Loss 1.3965\r\nLimit 1.3450\r\n\r\nFT115\r\nNZD/USD\r\nShort at 0.8644\r\nStop Loss 0.8720\r\nLimit 0.8000\r\n\r\nFT116\r\nUSD/JPY\r\nShort at 101.69\r\nStop Loss 102.10\r\nLimit 98.00\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>EXISTING TRADES STILL ACTIVE:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nFT73\r\nUSD/CHF\r\nLong at 0.8937\r\nStop Loss 0.8650\r\nLimit at 0.9250\r\n(My trade cost average is now at 0.8840..I have added three times on new lows every time)\r\n\r\nFT77\r\nEUR/USD\r\nShort at 1.3744\r\nStop Loss 1.4025\r\nLimit 1.3450\r\n(My cost average on this trade is now at 1.3835. I added short near highs yesterday as Draghi stated he was able to act in June.)\r\n\r\nFT106\r\nNZD/USD\r\nShort at 0.8533\r\nStop at 0.8920\r\nLimit at 0.8400\r\n(My trade cost average on this pair is now at 0.8665)\r\n\r\nFUN14\r\nGBP/NZD\r\nLong at 1.9800\r\nStop at 1.9000\r\nLimit at 2.2350\r\n(This trade is hedged short at 1.9650)\r\n\r\nGood luck today. I have a day of admin ahead of me, I missed a day this week being in downtown Montreal plus half a day yesterday taking one of my dogs to the vets.\r\n\r\nPlus I need to gather data for the blog tomorrow.\r\n\r\nScott','#27 - THE DAILY FX POST, Friday 9th May 2014','','inherit','open','closed','','3635-revision-v1','','','2014-05-09 07:02:58','2014-05-09 12:02:58','',3635,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/3635-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(3639,1,'2014-05-09 07:06:57','2014-05-09 12:06:57','Good Day,\r\n\r\nWhen my mother was alive she always said that patience was a virtue.\r\n\r\nFinally the long-term holdings of the USD/CHF , EUR/USD and NZD/USD are proving to profitable trades. Only the USD/CAD failed, and if I am being 100% honest, this was the pair I thought would being home the bacon!!\r\n\r\nI have 8 live trades listed below, I do not intend to enter anymore today, but I am very interested in the CAD data at 0830 EDT. I have a feeling that the CAD numbers if good could see the USD/CAD at 1.0700-1.0750, if so I will be a buyer there. I may FLASH TRADE the pair lower if I can, but not sure.\r\n\r\nThe CHF looks to be on the cusp of a really big push higher, we will need to keep our eyes on this.\r\n\r\nBecause it is a Friday and there is still a great deal of Geo-Political news in the air I will probably during the morning close of some trades, probably the duplication trades from earlier today. I am still in RISK AVERSE mode and will continue to be for sometime. Collectively, the overnight trades are now +100 pips.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>NEW TRADES ADDED OVERNIGHT (ALERTED VIA TWITTER):</strong></span>\r\n\r\nFT113\r\nUSD/CHF\r\nLong at 0.8808\r\nStop 0.8650\r\nLimit 0.9250\r\n\r\nFT114\r\nEUR/USD\r\nShort at 1.3837\r\nStop Loss 1.3965\r\nLimit 1.3450\r\n\r\nFT115\r\nNZD/USD\r\nShort at 0.8644\r\nStop Loss 0.8720\r\nLimit 0.8000\r\n\r\nFT116\r\nUSD/JPY\r\nShort at 101.69\r\nStop Loss 102.10\r\nLimit 98.00\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>EXISTING TRADES STILL ACTIVE:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nFT73\r\nUSD/CHF\r\nLong at 0.8937\r\nStop Loss 0.8650\r\nLimit at 0.9250\r\n(My trade cost average is now at 0.8840..I have added three times on new lows every time)\r\n\r\nFT77\r\nEUR/USD\r\nShort at 1.3744\r\nStop Loss 1.4025\r\nLimit 1.3450\r\n(My cost average on this trade is now at 1.3835. I added short near highs yesterday as Draghi stated he was able to act in June.)\r\n\r\nFT106\r\nNZD/USD\r\nShort at 0.8533\r\nStop at 0.8920\r\nLimit at 0.8400\r\n(My trade cost average on this pair is now at 0.8665)\r\n\r\nFUN14\r\nGBP/NZD\r\nLong at 1.9800\r\nStop at 1.9000\r\nLimit at 2.2350\r\n(This trade is hedged short at 1.9650)\r\n\r\nGood luck today. I have a day of admin ahead of me, I missed a day this week being in downtown Montreal plus half a day yesterday taking one of my dogs to the vets.\r\n\r\nPlus I need to gather data for the blog tomorrow.\r\n\r\nScott','#27 - THE DAILY FX POST, Friday 9th May 2014','','inherit','open','closed','','3635-revision-v1','','','2014-05-09 07:06:57','2014-05-09 12:06:57','',3635,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/3635-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(3705,1,'2014-05-19 07:11:49','2014-05-19 12:11:49','Good Day,\r\n\r\nWelcome to the 4 new subscribers from the weekend.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>OVERVIEW:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nMy blog\'s main article from  Saturday was focussed on the USD/JPY. Today sitting in front of my computer the first two currencies that I looked at were the USD/JPY and EUR/USD.  The EUR/USD cannot at the time of writing get above 1.3725 and the USD/JPY continues to strengthen and it is now below 101.40 flirting just above 101.00.\r\n\r\nThe U.S. futures are beginning to rally back from negative towards positive but the USD/JPY is not rallying.\r\n\r\nThe AUD and NZD are not really moving.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>TRADE SET-UPS:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nFrom the blog I am set up with multiple stop and limit orders waiting for my trades to come into play. There is no major economic data in the North American session and it looks like we will moved around by equities today. Should the JPY strengthen without any of my 3 orders being triggered I may have to chase. Regular followers will know, I do not chase, and should I do so, I try as best I can to at least obtain a little bit of a pullback to enter. The problem with any JPY move today, is that I think it has the opportunity to be dramatic.\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/JPY</strong>: Below 101.00 the next target is 100.70. I can\'t really see this pair getting bullish unless it breaks above 101.40. If we see a bounce to 101.40 and a reversal back lower, this will be a great area to try a short. The 6J is in breakout territory and with regards to the Nikkei futures 13,850 is major support.. There are so many patterns and measured moves potential on the Nikkei, right now, I do not want to list them because they are potentially huge/dramatic moves......so there is a lot to consider.\r\n\r\n<strong>EUR/USD</strong>: I have a limit order entry at 1.3775. I am not 100% certain we will get there, but looking at the EUR/USD charts here are my thoughts this morning. As stated last week or the week before and this has not altered, on the daily chart we are in an ascending wedge, which is, bearish by default. However, on the 240M chart there looks to be the possibility of an inverted head and shoulders from 1.3650 (Head)  to 1.3730/40 (neck line). Should the neckline get taken out, the measured move is to just over 1.3800, around 1.3810-30. Watch this pair.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nToday, is a day to be patient.\r\n\r\nI will tweet should I enter trades and alert if the \"triggers\" are activated.\r\n\r\nGood luck today,\r\n\r\nScott','#33 - THE DAILY FX POST, Monday 19th May 2014','','publish','open','closed','','33-daily-fx-post-monday-19th-may-2014','','','2014-05-19 07:11:49','2014-05-19 12:11:49','',0,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?post_type=member_posts&#038;p=3705',0,'member_posts','',0),(3652,1,'2014-05-10 10:25:07','2014-05-10 15:25:07','','PROBABILITIES IN TRADING','','inherit','open','closed','','probabilities-in-trading','','','2014-05-10 10:25:07','2014-05-10 15:25:07','',3596,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/PROBABILITIES-IN-TRADING.pdf',0,'attachment','application/pdf',0),(3653,1,'2014-05-10 10:40:26','2014-05-10 15:40:26','&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>1. INTRODUCTION:</strong>\r\n\r\nThe roller coaster ride in trading the Forex market continues. Until Draghi uttered the words “The Governing council of the ECB is comfortable with acting in June” coupled with “The Euro exchange rate is a serious concern” the USD was being taken to the cleaners and on the way there was being given a severe whipping. The USD index looked as it if was about to cave in. Just 24 hours later the EUR/USD was trading 200 pips lower and the GBP/USD 150 pips lower; an amazing turnaround.\r\n\r\nDuring the past 5 days we also saw a huge number of major news releases from Australia. My overall observation at the end of the week is that both RBA Stevens and RBNZ Wheeler, could be using pretty much the same scriptwriter with regards to their comments on their currencies. The only difference being that Wheeler has threatened direct intervention to bring the value of the NZD lower. Stevens once again re-iterated last Tuesday that the AUD was too high. He is partially to blame for this jump higher in the AUD/USD. Two months ago he really talked it down by stating 0.8000 – 0.8500 was a more appropriate level. He did not keep banging the drum he took his eye off the ball and the AUD/USD rose towards 0.9470 in the recent caning given to the USD. Had he been consistent the AUD/USD exchange rate would be sub 0.9000.\r\n\r\nNow we have the situation where, the ECB, RBA and RBNZ are talking dirty on currency exchange rates. As I have said many times talk is cheap. Draghi at the ECB looks like he is going to act next month, Wheeler at the RBNZ may directly intervene, where does that leave the RBA and Governor Stevens?\r\n\r\nFriday saw a disastrous set of job figures for Canada, the market was expecting +12,800 for April, instead, Canada lost 28,900. For a smaller populated country like Canada this was an awful result. There will be calls for stimulus in Canada if the next few sets of key economic data releases are poor. Personally, I think the BOC should react and cut rates. Let’s NOT pontificate like other central banks, let’s be decisive and pro-active and do something. Time will tell.\r\n\r\nFinally, I wanted to share something with you regarding the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\nAbout a couple of months ago, I launched a 4-week low cost $20.00 trial. Previously at the launch of the PREMIUM SERVICE I had resisted doing this, as what is happening now is what I thought could happen when why my gut feeling was not to offer this option. At renewal, I advise subscribers that the on-going option is from 10 to 40 weeks, ranging from $150 - $400 dependent upon the subscription period. About 50% renew 50% do not, I ask the “do not’s” why?\r\n\r\nI am concerned: as I ask, not interrogate, I am told it’s NOT the costs involved, although one or two have said this, but the main reason is it\'s the fact I am not doing enough trades per day. Surely, trades per day is relative to the market conditions…the opportunities…the risks.\r\n\r\nForex trading is not gambling. Forex trading is RISK ASSESSMENT, you require total 100% DISCIPLINE to survive. I know from various social network media that many people see Forex trading as an easy fast killing to make thousands of $$$$. Oh my God, I am stunned by some of the responses I am getting.\r\n\r\nPlease, please….you should only trade if you see trades that meet your plan and guidelines. I have been a Forex trader for 7 years and I want to remain a Forex trader for at least another 7 years, longer if possible. Additionally, if you see Forex as quick way to deliver $$$, please do not subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\nI have zero intention of blowing my accounts out in a dysfunctional marketplace. I am a Conservative/cautious “Steady Eddie” trader. My existing subscribers will admit to seeing me write on twitter that I screwed up an entry every now and then, I am human. I have losses, some because I get over stubborn on trades. The most recent example being the USD/CAD long, I took a hit of over 200 pips last Thursday. I should have exited a long time ago. I was in that trade for 38 days. I am NOT perfect; my wife will confirm this fact. I have learned the hard way how to apply DISCIPLINE to trading. If you want a fast cash gain you might as well gamble and go to Las Vegas and play a few tables.\r\n\r\nAs my father once said, “Gambling is a mugs game”. I had gamblers in my subscriber base; God only knows what size positions they were trading.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>The keys to Forex trading longevity in my opinion are: -</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>DISCIPLINE (understand the power of Leverage)</strong>\r\n<strong> RISK AND EFFECTIVE MONEY MANAGEMENT PLAN YOUR TRADES </strong>\r\n<strong> TRADE YOUR TRADING PLAN RULES and GUIDELINES.</strong></p>\r\nEvery trader surely has a goal to make money from trading, but one has to be RESILIENT and DISCIPLINED\r\n\r\nI apologize, if you think my thoughts are overkill. But, unless you try to RISK MANAGE you may as well burn your cash on the fire in my opinion.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>2. TRADING SUMMARY:</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>RADAR, FLASH and FUNDAMENTAL TRADES\r\n</strong><strong>MAY 2014 and YEAR to date:</strong></p>\r\nBelow I show the up to date performances for my various trading styles. Full excel spreadsheets are in the subscriber area of the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/PREM-SERVICE-PROFITS-1-10052014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-3644\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/PREM-SERVICE-PROFITS-1-10052014.png\" alt=\"PREM SERVICE PROFITS 1 10052014\" width=\"449\" height=\"413\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/PREM-SERVICE-PROFITS-2-10052014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-3645\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/PREM-SERVICE-PROFITS-2-10052014.png\" alt=\"PREM SERVICE PROFITS 2 10052014\" width=\"451\" height=\"413\" /></a>\r\n\r\nThe above examples are for illustration purposes only:\r\n\r\nThe profitability examples detailed above are based solely upon single lot trading, regardless of lot type. If multiple lot sizes are traded the profitability margins will be different than those shown.\r\n\r\nJust to provide more information so you understand where I am coming from with the risk / reward statements above. All of my trades are of different sizes and different size lot types. The above does not reflect the actual trading performance, but it does show you the direction of the performance of the trades placed.\r\n\r\nI like to add to trades, profits are taken as the trade progresses and my overall cost average moves several times. All of my trades are of different lot styles. I trade a mixture of micro lots, mini lots and standard lots across my brokers.\r\n\r\nThe above results simply display your profit or loss if you placed a single lot trade on all the set-ups suggested and did nothing else.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>3. THE FUNDAMENTAL TRADERS OVERVIEW:</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>THE ECB - ARE WE ON A PROMISE…MARKET REACTION SAYS YES?</strong></p>\r\nAnother ECB press Conference goes by and despite many calls for action from within the Eurozone for the ECB to act on DEFLATION and the high EUR exchange rate that is in effect across almost all currencies, nothing was done\r\n\r\nHowever, Draghi admitted that the ECB Governing Body has discussed the matters and the ECB now has a green to go if it wants to, by the next meeting in June 2014.\r\n\r\nThe market reaction was immediate. The EUR/USD sell off started. In 24 hours we had a 200-pip fall. If you remember, the last time Draghi acted was to cut rates by 0.25% and we saw a huge 200-pip fall followed by, at the end of the day a much larger bounce. This time it’s different, well at least the market believes this time, that Draghi means business.\r\n\r\nDraghi has backed himself into a corner. A few weeks ago I wrote about the DEFLATION issues in the Eurozone. It looks like inflation forecasts will be wound back lower next month, given the fact that The European Commission has recently revised expectations downward. So if Draghi does NOT act in June, then\r\n\r\nMr. “Whatever it takes” Draghi will lose all credibility.\r\n\r\nWhat will he / can he do?\r\n\r\nWell, he has really upped the ante this time:\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Governing body comfortable to act in June</strong>\r\n<strong> The Euro exchange rate is a serious concern</strong></p>\r\nThe issue / problem as I see it, is that no matter what the ECB decides to do, and there a few options, none of them are in the same league as the BOJ QE programmes of Quantitative easing and Qualitative easing, that was able at the launch to move the YEN by about 35% in a few weeks.\r\n\r\nThe structure of the ECB, albeit, allegedly independent of political influence…(and if you believe that you would also believe that I am running for President!), simply does not allow them game changing, large-scale measures like the FED or the BOJ.\r\n\r\nThe list of options hasn’t really changed from what I have written previously: -\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>LTRO - (Longer Term Refinancing Options). </strong>\r\n<strong> Lowering its Refinancing rate to zero.</strong>\r\n<strong> Negative overnight ECB Deposit Rates.</strong>\r\n<strong> QE (Quantitative Easing).</strong></p>\r\nI think that whatever is decided it has to show strength of commitment from the ECB otherwise if it is a “wishy-washy” attempt to ease, it will be responded to that way and the EUR/USD, in particular, could once again strengthen.\r\n\r\nThere are 4 weeks between now and the next meeting for all the debates on the options open to Draghi and his peers to take hold. Let the merriment begin.\r\n\r\nFrom a trading perspective, we have seen pretty much a universal EUR fall across all cross-rates as well as the EUR/USD.\r\n\r\nWhere do I see the EUR pairs falling to? This is dependent on the reaction with the EUR/USD, but do not rule out the EUR/JPY. The Eurozone trades heavily with Japan and to some extent the EUR/JPY cross-rate could pull the EUR/USD. Do not rule this out.\r\n\r\nI include a monthly chart of the EUR/USD below. I think that 1.3436 (76.4% Fibonacci level) (1.3450), is probably where my thoughts are at the moment as a possible short target.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/EURUSD-MONTHLY-10052014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-3641\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/EURUSD-MONTHLY-10052014-1024x424.png\" alt=\"EURUSD MONTHLY 10052014\" width=\"1024\" height=\"424\" /></a>\r\n\r\nPossible lows on the crosses if the EUR/USD targets the 1.3450 area are: -\r\n\r\nEUR/JPY: 132.00 (The 50% Fibonacci retracement of last big move)\r\n\r\nEUR/CAD: 1.4400 (If the CAD rallies back towards 1.1200, this may not happen)\r\n\r\nEUR/AUD: 1.4000 (If the AUD breaks lower, this may not be achieved)\r\n\r\nEUR/NZD: 1.5000 (If the NZD breaks lower, this may not be reached)\r\n\r\nReferring to the prices above, a great deal depends on how the cross-rates react. The Commodity crosses may hold up the EUR/USD fall if the commodity currencies also weaken in line with USD strength. But the levels above are very much in the target zone in my opinion.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>4. TRADER TOPICS:</strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>PROBABILITIES IN TRADING:</strong></p>\r\nI was speaking over the telephone a few days ago with one or two subscribers to the PREMIUM SERVICE. I noticed a consistency, as they were relatively new traders to Forex. The consistency was that they spoke as if they knew what the markets were going to do next. In reality, experienced traders would usually speak in probabilities and typically have some form of analysis to back up their opinion.\r\n\r\nNo one can say that a particular currency pair will move to an exact point with absolute certainty. In fact, I feel it is naïve to think that anyone can predict the direction of a currency pair with absolute certainty over a given period of time. Sure, sometimes you could be correct if you boldly predict that a pair will move to X level with absolute certainty. However, there will be other times when the market doesn’t go your way. That is why we must deal with probabilities, because no one knows for sure what will happen next in a given currency pair.\r\n\r\nThe reason we can never know where a currency pair is going with absolute certainty is that the markets move based on the will of every market participant. Let’s suppose that someone stated “the EUR/USD will definitely rise to point X, before falling down to point Y”. They are saying that they know exactly what every trader is thinking, how each of these traders plan to act, and how each trader will respond to the actions of every other trader. Needless to say, no one could ever have that information.\r\n\r\nHowever, it isn’t uncommon to see bold predictions that definitely state which direction a currency pair will go and exactly where the move will begin and end. No one can know these types of moves for certain. Even worse, it isn’t hard to find predictions that say something like “buy the USD/JPY at X or you will regret it”. This baseless claim gives virtually no useful information because we don’t have any idea how long of a trade this would be or where the exits (stop and limit(s)) are. Without being too harsh, just beware of anyone who claims they know for certain where a currency pair is headed. Of course everyone can be entitled to his or her opinion, but that doesn’t mean they “know” what will happen next.\r\n\r\nEven if an insider were to know about an interest rate change ahead of its release, that doesn’t mean they can predict exactly how the market can act. What if the interest rate briefly rises the pair into massive stop-sell orders that actually move the market down for the day? What if enough market participants felt the rate would move higher, so the pair moves lower? There are endless scenarios, but it is virtually impossible to predict how every market participant will act within a constantly changing market.\r\n\r\nTherefore, we must think in probabilities.\r\n\r\nNo matter how good / sensational your analysis is, sometimes you will simply be on the wrong side of the market. Whether you are looking at fundamental news announcements, a combination of technical tools, or a simple moving average, as traders what we are looking for are patterns that put the probabilities in our favour so that we will profit in the long run. In other words, we are looking for how the market has reacted in the past to certain conditions, and speculating how likely the market will react in the future to similar conditions.\r\n\r\nRegardless of the tools you use to analyise the market, you are still working with probabilities. If you find a system that is profitable over a long period of time, that system is likely putting the probabilities on your side. These systems come in a variety of shapes and sizes.\r\n\r\nEvery trader has their own system; one of my trading buddies is hooked on an easy mathematical calculation system….makes no sense to me but he says it works for him.\r\n\r\nI think I have his system correct below.\r\n\r\nHe uses only SMA’s and Bollinger bands plus pressure charts to show both momentum and trends. Exactly how he determines an entry or exit I am not 100% certain: -\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>The system requires 40% of trades to reach the profit target in order to break even.</li>\r\n	<li>The reason for 40% is that he works on a risk/reward ratio of 1:1.5.</li>\r\n	<li>Therefore, if he has only a 50% success rate on profitable trades, he would be very profitable over time.</li>\r\n	<li>Even having 45% of all trades being profitable is a success and provides a great return.</li>\r\n	<li>In fact, anything above a 50% profitable trade rate is fantastic.</li>\r\n	<li>Therefore, it is plain to see that it is not necessary to know where the market will go on each individual trade. Instead, it is important to have a system that that places increased probabilities in your favour over a large sample size of trades</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nAt the end of the day, it’s is all about RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, as traders we are RISK ASSESSORS…we PLAN OUR TRADES and TRADE OUR TRADING PLANS. No matter what system you adapt to for trading, as long as you have good discipline, you stand a better than average chance of survival as a trader. Without discipline you are doomed over time.\r\n\r\nMany of the PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers have asked me, what do I use to plan a trade.\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>Discipline.</li>\r\n	<li>Fibonacci levels</li>\r\n	<li>Pivot points</li>\r\n	<li>100 and 200 day SMA’s</li>\r\n	<li>Sometimes….Bollinger bands (I hate my charts to look too busy).</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nAs long as you can use and relate to the probabilities in trading in your favour and that they work over an extended longer period of time, the individual results on each individual trade are almost meaningless. Like all traders I take losses. The key is to manage those losses correctly so that the long-term track record remains profitable.\r\n\r\nThe bottom line is that thinking of trading in terms of probabilities is a key step to becoming a successful trader.<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n5. MY CURRENT LIVE TRADES:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>FLASH TRADES:</strong>\r\n\r\nI am in several positions and I am not 100% happy with them all but many positions are very small position sizes that I do not mind holding. I am maybe too optimistic that I will engineer my way out of these poorer trades but my RISK MANAGEMENT is still 100%.\r\n\r\nFT73\r\nUSD/CHF\r\nLong\r\nCost Average / Entry Level: 0.8937\r\nStop Loss: 0.8800\r\nLimit / Target: 0.9250\r\nWeekly Closing Price: 0.8862\r\nPosition: -76 pips\r\n\r\nFT77\r\nEUR/USD\r\nShort\r\nCost Average / Entry Level: 1.3744\r\nStop Loss: 1.3950\r\nLimit / Target: 1.3450\r\nWeekly Closing Price: 1.3757\r\nPosition: -13 pips\r\n\r\nFT106\r\nNZD/USD\r\nShort\r\nCost Average / Entry Level: 0.8533\r\nStop Loss: 0.8750\r\nLimit / Target: 0.8400\r\nWeekly Closing Price: 0.8609\r\nPosition: -76 pips\r\n\r\n<strong>RADAR TRADES:</strong>\r\n\r\nI have no open RADAR TRADES at the moment.<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>FUNDAMENTAL TRADES:</strong>\r\n\r\nFUN14\r\nGBP/NZD\r\n(This trade is hedged from -150 pips)\r\nLong\r\nCost Average: 1.9950\r\nStop Loss: 1.9000\r\nLimit / Target: 2.2350\r\nWeekly Closing Price: 1.9555\r\nPosition: - 395 pips\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>6. TRADES THAT ARE ON MY RADAR:</strong>\r\n\r\nDue to the continuing Ukraine / Russian tensions I am not looking to add any trades over this weekend.\r\n\r\nI would wait until we set how the weekend plays out with the tensions around the globe and the politician sound-bytes that will no doubt be aired in Sunday’s press and on TV.\r\n\r\nHaving written that, these are the trades on my mind for early next week.\r\n\r\nAUD/NZD\r\nLong\r\nEntry (above the breakout point) at 1.0950.\r\nStop Loss 1.0750\r\nLimit 1.1350\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD\r\nLong\r\nEntry 1.0880.\r\nStop Loss 1.0800\r\nLimit 1.1120\r\n\r\nUSD/NOK\r\nLong\r\nEntry 5.9050\r\nStop Loss 5.7500\r\nLimit 7.2500\r\n\r\nUSD/SEK\r\nLong\r\nEntry at 6.5600\r\nStop Loss 6.5100\r\nLimit 6.9700\r\n\r\nAs you can see from the chart below, we are attempting another breakout. I would keep your eyes peeled if I enter this trade. When there is a bit of light above the entry level my objective would be to move my stop to breakeven. Given the Eurozone news and the USD strength, this may be the time we see the explosive upside move. But, just in case, we should also be prepared for a failure.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/USDSEK-WEEKLY-10052014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-3642\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/USDSEK-WEEKLY-10052014-1024x424.png\" alt=\"USDSEK WEEKLY 10052014\" width=\"1024\" height=\"424\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nIn addition all of the JPY pairs are on my RADAR. I will be looking at these in detail next Monday. As you know, I am NOT a fan of Sunday night’s in Asia and I do not want risk exposure until we have had at least one Asian and one European session out of the way. I will make a feature of the JPY pairs in Monday’s (12<sup>th</sup> May) DAILY FX POST if the current conditions persist.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>7. LOOKING FORWARD…THE KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3757.</strong> Following the ECB Press Conference the EUR/USD has slid about 250 pips from almost touching 1.4000. Now the question is how far will it fall ahead of the next ECB Press Conference in June. My medium term target from my short EUR/USD trades of late has been 1.3450. Right now, I see no reason to change that goal. However, in the short-term, I am expecting some consolidation next week and I think we may have a little range bound activity to work off the oversold conditions that you can see on the charts. I am thinking that for this coming week the range will be around 1.3700 to 1.3840. I could be wrong, but this is what I think as of now.\r\n\r\n<strong>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.6847</strong>. This pair almost got to 1.7000, and then it fell from grace like the EUR/USD. It too has pulled back about 250 pips off its highs.\r\nOver the coming week I see 1.6750 to 1.6920 as the range to break out of. Ultimately, if the EUR/USD falls so will the GBP and I expect us back around 1.6500.\r\n\r\n<strong>AUD/USD: Closing Price 0.9360</strong>. This pair is not reacting the way that I thought it would. I am staying away for a little while until it makes its mind up if it is moving lower or going to attack 0.9500. The RBA needs to get stuck in with the AUD and be firmer on what it sees as the target. The AUD/NZD is affecting this pair, the cross-rate has come alive with the demise of the NZD/USD and this has a great deal to do with the current elevated price of the AUD/USD, probably to the annoyance of Governor Stevens. The range is 0.9300 to 0.9450.\r\n\r\n<strong>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8609</strong>. The big number that I was working with last Friday (9<sup>th</sup> May 2014) was 0.8615 as support…look where it closed the week. I am short this pair and intend to remain short for sometime to come; I struggled with much higher levels and was patient. Now I am hungry for my pips. I will add again to my position on a break below 0.8600. The range is 0.8600 support to 0.8780 resistance.\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.0897.</strong> The crazy \"loonie\", I got stopped out on Thursday for a 221-pip loss and then the next day we got a rally on really poor employment data. I did not see that coming. We have a “tweezer” candlestick pattern pretty much in play. The move with this pattern is to 1.1000. Support is at 1.0840.\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.8862</strong>. As the EUR/USD falls the inverse relationship with the USD/CHF is in play. One of my long term trades, still with it over a month now and patience is paying dividends. If we can get above 0.8950, I think we are going to head much, much higher. Support is really good at 0.8800<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/JPY: Closing Price 101.86. </strong>Very interesting, JPY crosses had a bad day on Friday last week, the EUR/JPY in particular. The USD/JPY held up very well and this is a pair as you now from TRADES ON MY RADAR SECTION that interests me along with the other JPY pairs. The range is 101.40 to 102.10.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>8. MAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:</strong>\r\n\r\nSUNDAY: CNY – HSBC Manufacturing PMi.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: EUR – German ZEW Economic Sentiment.\r\nTUESDAY: AUD – Annual Budget Release.\r\nTUESDAY: NZD - RBNZ Wheeler speaks.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: GBP – BOE Carney speaks &amp; BOE Inflation Report.\r\nWEDNESDAY: NZD – Annual Budget Release.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: USD – Core CPi.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>9. FINAL THOUGHTS:</strong>\r\n\r\nI am expecting more of the same over the coming week, the only difference, and, it could be a big difference is we may have direction following the ECB Press Conference last week. Additionally, there are moves now out of tight ranges and this should help with momentum.\r\n\r\nHowever, you still have to be ready for false breakouts and false breakdowns. There are so many inflection points close by in equities and bonds that the potential spikey moves could impact the Forex markets, despite it’s recent moves out of ranges coupled with the momentum directional moves of the EUR.\r\n\r\nTake care and good luck. Be careful with position sizes.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nSaturday May 10th 2014\r\n\r\nEMAIL / FOLLOW ME AT:\r\npremiumservice@weeklyfxdrivethru.com\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\nTwitter: @ThePremService\r\nGoogle+/scottpickering\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','THE ECB - ARE WE ON A PROMISE…MARKET REACTION SAYS YES?','','publish','open','closed','','ecb-promisemarket-reaction-says-yes','','','2014-05-10 10:40:26','2014-05-10 15:40:26','',0,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?post_type=member_posts&#038;p=3653',0,'member_posts','',0),(3654,1,'2014-05-10 10:36:50','2014-05-10 15:36:50','&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>1. INTRODUCTION:</strong>\r\n\r\nThe roller coaster ride in trading the Forex market continues. Until Draghi uttered the words “The Governing council of the ECB is comfortable with acting in June” coupled with “The Euro exchange rate is a serious concern” the USD was being taken to the cleaners and on the way there was being given a severe whipping. The USD index looked as it if was about to cave in. Just 24 hours later the EUR/USD was trading 200 pips lower and the GBP/USD 150 pips lower; an amazing turnaround.\r\n\r\nDuring the past 5 days we also saw a huge number of major news releases from Australia. My overall observation at the end of the week is that both RBA Stevens and RBNZ Wheeler, could be using pretty much the same scriptwriters with regards to their comments on their currencies. The only difference being that Wheeler has threatened direct intervention to bring the value of the NZD lower. Stevens once again re-iterated last Tuesday that the AUD was too high. He is partially to blame for this jump higher in the AUD/USD. Two months ago he really talked it down by stating 0.8000 – 0.8500 was a more appropriate level. He did not keep banging the drum he took his eye off the ball and the AUD/USD rose towards 0.9470 in the recent caning given to the USD. Had he been consistent the AUD/USD exchange rate would be sub 0.9000.\r\n\r\nNow we have the situation where, the ECB, RBA and RBNZ are talking dirty on currency exchange rates. As I have said many times talk is cheap. Draghi at the ECB looks like he is going to act next month, Wheeler at the RBNZ may directly intervene, where does that leave the RBA and Governor Stevens?\r\n\r\nFriday saw a disastrous set of job figures for Canada, the market was expecting +12,800 for April, instead, Canada lost 28,900. For a smaller populated country like Canada this was an awful result. There will be calls for stimulus in Canada if the next few sets of key economic data releases are poor. Personally, I think the BOC should react and cut rates. Let’s NOT pontificate like other central banks, let’s be decisive and pro-active and do something. Time will tell.\r\n\r\nFinally, I wanted to share something with you regarding the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\nAbout a couple of months ago, I launched a 4-week low cost $20.00 trial. Previously at the launch of the PREMIUM SERVICE I had resisted doing this, as what is happening now is what I thought could happen when why my gut feeling was not to offer this option. At renewal, I advise subscribers that the on-going option is from 10 to 40 weeks, ranging from $150 - $400 dependent upon the subscription period. About 50% renew 50% do not, I ask the “do not’s” why?\r\n\r\nI am concerned: as I ask, not interrogate, I am told it’s NOT the costs involved, although one or two have said this, but the main reason is it\'s the fact I am not doing enough trades per day. Surely, trades per day is relative to the market conditions…the opportunities…the risks.\r\n\r\nForex trading is not gambling. Forex trading is RISK ASSESSEMENT, you require total 100% DISCIPLINE to survive. I know from various social network media that many people see Forex trading as an easy fast killing to make thousands of $$$$. Oh my God, I am stunned by some of the responses I am getting.\r\n\r\nPlease, please….you should only trade if you see trades that meet your plan and guidelines. I have been a Forex trader for 7 years and I want to remain a Forex trader for at least another 7 years, longer if possible. Additionally, if you see Forex as quick way to deliver $$$, please do not subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\nI have zero intention of blowing my accounts out in a dysfunctional marketplace. I am a Conservative/cautious “Steady Eddie” trader. My existing subscribers will admit to seeing me write on twitter that I screwed up an entry every now and then, I am human. I have losses, some because I get over stubborn on trades. The most recent example being the USD/CAD long, I took a hit of over 200 pips last Thursday. I should have exited a long time ago. I was in that trade for 38 days. I am NOT perfect; my wife will confirm this fact. I have learned the hard way how to apply DISCIPLINE to trading. If you want a fast cash gain you might as well gamble and go to Las Vegas and play a few tables.\r\n\r\nAs my father once said, “Gambling is a mugs game”. I had gamblers in my subscriber base; God only knows what size positions they were trading.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>The keys to Forex trading longevity in my opinion are: -</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>DISCIPLINE (understand the power of Leverage)</strong>\r\n<strong> RISK AND EFFECTIVE MONEY MANAGEMENT PLAN YOUR TRADES </strong>\r\n<strong> TRADE YOUR TRADING PLAN RULES and GUIDELINES.</strong></p>\r\nEvery trader surely has a goal to make money from trading, but one has to be RESILIENT and DISCIPLINED\r\n\r\nI apologize, if you think my thoughts are overkill. But, unless you try to RISK MANAGE you may as well burn your cash on the fire in my opinion.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>2. TRADING SUMMARY:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>RADAR, FLASH and FUNDAMENTAL TRADES\r\n</strong><strong>MAY 2014 and YEAR to date:</strong>\r\n\r\nBelow I show the up to date performances for my various trading styles. Full excel spreadsheets are in the subscriber area of the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/PREM-SERVICE-PROFITS-1-10052014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-3644\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/PREM-SERVICE-PROFITS-1-10052014.png\" alt=\"PREM SERVICE PROFITS 1 10052014\" width=\"449\" height=\"413\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/PREM-SERVICE-PROFITS-2-10052014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-3645\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/PREM-SERVICE-PROFITS-2-10052014.png\" alt=\"PREM SERVICE PROFITS 2 10052014\" width=\"451\" height=\"413\" /></a>\r\n\r\nThe above examples are for illustration purposes only:\r\n\r\nThe profitability examples detailed above are based solely upon single lot trading, regardless of lot type. If multiple lot sizes are traded the profitability margins will be different than those shown.\r\n\r\nJust to provide more information so you understand where I am coming from with the risk / reward statements above. All of my trades are of different sizes and different size lot types. The above does not reflect the actual trading performance, but it does show you the direction of the performance of the trades placed.\r\n\r\nI like to add to trades, profits are taken as the trade progresses and my overall cost average moves several times. All of my trades are of different lot styles. I trade a mixture of micro lots, mini lots and standard lots across my brokers.\r\n\r\nThe above results simply display your profit or loss if you placed a single lot trade on all the set-ups suggested and did nothing else.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>3. THE FUNDAMENTAL TRADERS OVERVIEW:</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>THE ECB - ARE WE ON A PROMISE…MARKET REACTION SAYS YES?</strong></p>\r\nAnother ECB press Conference goes by and despite many calls for action from within the Eurozone for the ECB to act on DEFLATION and the high EUR exchange rate that is in effect across almost all currencies, nothing was done\r\n\r\nHowever, Draghi admitted that the ECB Governing Body has discussed the matters and the ECB now has a green to go if it wants to, by the next meeting in June 2014.\r\n\r\nThe market reaction was immediate. The EUR/USD sell off started. In 24 hours we had a 200-pip fall. If you remember, the last time Draghi acted was to cut rates by 0.25% and we saw a huge 200-pip fall followed by, at the end of the day a much larger bounce. This time it’s different, well at least the market believes this time, that Draghi means business.\r\n\r\nDraghi has backed himself into a corner. A few weeks ago I wrote about the DEFLATION issues in the Eurozone. It looks like inflation forecasts will be wound back lower next month, given the fact that The European Commission has recently revised expectations downward. So if Draghi does NOT act in June, then\r\n\r\nMr. “Whatever it takes” Draghi will lose all credibility.\r\n\r\nWhat will he / can he do?\r\n\r\nWell, he has really upped the ante this time:\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Governing body comfortable to act in June</strong>\r\n<strong> The Euro exchange rate is a serious concern</strong></p>\r\nThe issue / problem as I see it, is that no matter what the ECB decides to do, and there a few options, none of them are in the same league as the BOJ QE programmes of Quantitative easing and Qualitative easing, that was able at the launch to move the YEN by about 35% in a few weeks.\r\n\r\nThe structure of the ECB, albeit, allegedly independent of political influence…(and if you believe that you would also believe that I am running for President!), simply does not allow them game changing, large-scale measures like the FED or the BOJ.\r\n\r\nThe list of options hasn’t really changed from what I have written previously: -\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>LTRO - (Longer Term Refinancing Options). </strong>\r\n<strong> Lowering its Refinancing rate to zero.</strong>\r\n<strong> Negative overnight ECB Deposit Rates.</strong>\r\n<strong> QE (Quantitative Easing).</strong></p>\r\nI think that whatever is decided it has to show strength of commitment from the ECB otherwise if it is a “wishy-washy” attempt to ease, it will be responded to that way and the EUR/USD, in particular, could once again strengthen.\r\n\r\nThere are 4 weeks between now and the next meeting for all the debates on the options open to Draghi and his peers to take hold. Let the merriment begin.\r\n\r\nFrom a trading perspective, we have seen pretty much a universal EUR fall across all cross-rates as well as the EUR/USD.\r\n\r\nWhere do I see the EUR pairs falling to? This is dependent on the reaction with the EUR/USD, but do not rule out the EUR/JPY. The Eurozone trades heavily with Japan and to some extent the EUR/JPY cross-rate could pull the EUR/USD. Do not rule this out.\r\n\r\nI include a monthly chart of the EUR/USD below. I think that 1.3436 (76.4% Fibonacci level) (1.3450), is probably where my thoughts are at the moment as a possible short target.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/EURUSD-MONTHLY-10052014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-3641\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/EURUSD-MONTHLY-10052014-1024x424.png\" alt=\"EURUSD MONTHLY 10052014\" width=\"1024\" height=\"424\" /></a>\r\n\r\nPossible lows on the crosses if the EUR/USD targets the 1.3450 area are: -\r\n\r\nEUR/JPY: 132.00 (The 50% Fibonacci retracement of last big move)\r\n\r\nEUR/CAD: 1.4400 (If the CAD rallies back towards 1.1200, this may not happen)\r\n\r\nEUR/AUD: 1.4000 (If the AUD breaks lower, this may not be achieved)\r\n\r\nEUR/NZD: 1.5000 (If the NZD breaks lower, this may not be reached)\r\n\r\nReferring to the prices above, a great deal depends on how the cross-rates react. The Commodity crosses may hold up the EUR/USD fall if the commodity currencies also weaken in line with USD strength. But the levels above are very much in the target zone in my opinion.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>4. TRADER TOPICS:</strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>PROBABILITIES IN TRADING:</strong></p>\r\nI was speaking over the telephone a few days ago with one or two subscribers to the PREMIUM SERVICE. I noticed a consistency, as they were relatively new traders to Forex. The consistency was that they spoke as if they knew what the markets were going to do next. In reality, experienced traders would usually speak in probabilities and typically have some form of analysis to back up their opinion.\r\n\r\nNo one can say that a particular currency pair will move to an exact point with absolute certainty. In fact, I feel it is naïve to think that anyone can predict the direction of a currency pair with absolute certainty over a given period of time. Sure, sometimes you could be correct if you boldly predict that a pair will move to X level with absolute certainty. However, there will be other times when the market doesn’t go your way. That is why we must deal with probabilities, because no one knows for sure what will happen next in a given currency pair.\r\n\r\nThe reason we can never know where a currency pair is going with absolute certainty is that the markets move based on the will of every market participant. Let’s suppose that someone stated “the EUR/USD will definitely rise to point X, before falling down to point Y”. They are saying that they know exactly what every trader is thinking, how each of these traders plan to act, and how each trader will respond to the actions of every other trader. Needless to say, no one could ever have that information.\r\n\r\nHowever, it isn’t uncommon to see bold predictions that definitely state which direction a currency pair will go and exactly where the move will begin and end. No one can know these types of moves for certain. Even worse, it isn’t hard to find predictions that say something like “buy the USD/JPY at X or you will regret it”. This baseless claim gives virtually no useful information because we don’t have any idea how long of a trade this would be or where the exits (stop and limit(s)) are. Without being too harsh, just beware of anyone who claims they know for certain where a currency pair is headed. Of course everyone can be entitled to his or her opinion, but that doesn’t mean they “know” what will happen next.\r\n\r\nEven if an insider were to know about an interest rate change ahead of its release, that doesn’t mean they can predict exactly how the market can act. What if the interest rate briefly rises the pair into massive stop-sell orders that actually move the market down for the day? What if enough market participants felt the rate would move higher, so the pair moves lower? There are endless scenarios, but it is virtually impossible to predict how every market participant will act within a constantly changing market.\r\n\r\nTherefore, we must think in probabilities.\r\n\r\nNo matter how good / sensational your analysis is, sometimes you will simply be on the wrong side of the market. Whether you are looking at fundamental news announcements, a combination of technical tools, or a simple moving average, as traders what we are looking for are patterns that put the probabilities in our favour so that we will profit in the long run. In other words, we are looking for how the market has reacted in the past to certain conditions, and speculating how likely the market will react in the future to similar conditions.\r\n\r\nRegardless of the tools you use to analyise the market, you are still working with probabilities. If you find a system that is profitable over a long period of time, that system is likely putting the probabilities on your side. These systems come in a variety of shapes and sizes.\r\n\r\nEvery trader has their own system; one of my trading buddies is hooked on an easy mathematical calculation system….makes no sense to me but he says it works for him.\r\n\r\nI think I have his system correct below.\r\n\r\nHe uses only SMA’s and Bollinger bands plus pressure charts to show both momentum and trends. Exactly how he determines an entry or exit I am not 100% certain: -\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>The system requires 40% of trades to reach the profit target in order to break even.</li>\r\n	<li>The reason for 40% is that he works on a risk/reward ratio of 1:1.5.</li>\r\n	<li>Therefore, if he has only a 50% success rate on profitable trades, he would be very profitable over time.</li>\r\n	<li>Even having 45% of all trades being profitable is a success and provides a great return.</li>\r\n	<li>In fact, anything above a 50% profitable trade rate is fantastic.</li>\r\n	<li>Therefore, it is plain to see that it is not necessary to know where the market will go on each individual trade. Instead, it is important to have a system that that places increased probabilities in your favour over a large sample size of trades</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nAt the end of the day, it’s is all about RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, as traders we are RISK ASSESSORS…we PLAN OUR TRADES and TRADE OUR TRADING PLANS. No matter what system you adapt to for trading, as long as you have good discipline, you stand a better than average chance of survival as a trader. Without discipline you are doomed over time.\r\n\r\nMany of the PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers have asked me, what do I use to plan a trade.\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>Discipline.</li>\r\n	<li>Fibonacci levels</li>\r\n	<li>Pivot points</li>\r\n	<li>100 and 200 day SMA’s</li>\r\n	<li>Sometimes….Bollinger bands (I hate my charts to look too busy).</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nAs long as you can use and relate to the probabilities in trading in your favour and that they work over an extended longer period of time, the individual results on each individual trade are almost meaningless. Like all traders I take losses. The key is to manage those losses correctly so that the long-term track record remains profitable.\r\n\r\nThe bottom line is that thinking of trading in terms of probabilities is a key step to becoming a successful trader.<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n5. MY CURRENT LIVE TRADES:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>FLASH TRADES:</strong>\r\n\r\nI am in several positions and I am not 100% happy with them all but many positions are very small position sizes that I do not mind holding. I am maybe too optimistic that I will engineer my way out of these poorer trades but my RISK MANAGEMENT is still 100%.\r\n\r\nFT73\r\nUSD/CHF\r\nLong\r\nCost Average / Entry Level: 0.8937\r\nStop Loss: 0.8800\r\nLimit / Target: 0.9250\r\nWeekly Closing Price: 0.8862\r\nPosition: -76 pips\r\n\r\nFT77\r\nEUR/USD\r\nShort\r\nCost Average / Entry Level: 1.3744\r\nStop Loss: 1.3950\r\nLimit / Target: 1.3450\r\nWeekly Closing Price: 1.3757\r\nPosition: -13 pips\r\n\r\nFT106\r\nNZD/USD\r\nShort\r\nCost Average / Entry Level: 0.8533\r\nStop Loss: 0.8750\r\nLimit / Target: 0.8400\r\nWeekly Closing Price: 0.8609\r\nPosition: -76 pips\r\n\r\n<strong>RADAR TRADES:</strong>\r\n\r\nI have no open RADAR TRADES at the moment.<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>FUNDAMENTAL TRADES:</strong>\r\n\r\nFUN14\r\nGBP/NZD\r\n(This trade is hedged from -150 pips)\r\nLong\r\nCost Average: 1.9950\r\nStop Loss: 1.9000\r\nLimit / Target: 2.2350\r\nWeekly Closing Price: 1.9555\r\nPosition: - 395 pips\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>6. TRADES THAT ARE ON MY RADAR:</strong>\r\n\r\nDue to the continuing Ukraine / Russian tensions I am not looking to add any trades over this weekend.\r\n\r\nI would wait until we set how the weekend plays out with the tensions around the globe and the politician sound-bytes that will no doubt be aired in Sunday’s press and on TV.\r\n\r\nHaving written that, these are the trades on my mind for early next week.\r\n\r\nAUD/NZD\r\nLong\r\nEntry (above the breakout point) at 1.0950.\r\nStop Loss 1.0750\r\nLimit 1.1350\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD\r\nLong\r\nEntry 1.0880.\r\nStop Loss 1.0800\r\nLimit 1.1120\r\n\r\nUSD/NOK\r\nLong\r\nEntry 5.9050\r\nStop Loss 5.7500\r\nLimit 7.2500\r\n\r\nUSD/SEK\r\nLong\r\nEntry at 6.5600\r\nStop Loss 6.5100\r\nLimit 6.9700\r\n\r\nAs you can see from the chart below, we are attempting another breakout. I would keep your eyes peeled if I enter this trade. When there is a bit of light above the entry level my objective would be to move my stop to breakeven. Given the Eurozone news and the USD strength, this may be the time we see the explosive upside move. But, just in case, we should also be prepared for a failure.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/USDSEK-WEEKLY-10052014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-3642\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/USDSEK-WEEKLY-10052014-1024x424.png\" alt=\"USDSEK WEEKLY 10052014\" width=\"1024\" height=\"424\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nIn addition all of the JPY pairs are on my RADAR. I will be looking at these in detail next Monday. As you know, I am NOT a fan of Sunday night’s in Asia and I do not want risk exposure until we have had at least one Asian and one European session out of the way. I will make a feature of the JPY pairs in Monday’s (12<sup>th</sup> May) DAILY FX POST if the current conditions persist.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>7. LOOKING FORWARD…THE KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3757.</strong> Following the ECB Press Conference the EUR/USD has slid about 250 pips from almost touching 1.4000. Now the question is how far will it fall ahead of the next ECB Press Conference in June. My medium term target from my short EUR/USD trades of late has been 1.3450. Right now, I see no reason to change that goal. However, in the short-term, I am expecting some consolidation next week and I think we may have a little range bound activity to work off the oversold conditions that you can see on the charts. I am thinking that for this coming week the range will be around 1.3700 to 1.3840. I could be wrong, but this is what I think as of now.\r\n\r\n<strong>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.6847</strong>. This pair almost got to 1.7000, and then it fell from grace like the EUR/USD. It too has pulled back about 250 pips off its highs.\r\nOver the coming week I see 1.6750 to 1.6920 as the range to break out of. Ultimately, if the EUR/USD falls so will the GBP and I expect us back around 1.6500.\r\n\r\n<strong>AUD/USD: Closing Price 0.9360</strong>. This pair is not reacting the way that I thought it would. I am staying away for a little while until it makes its mind up if it is moving lower or going to attack 0.9500. The RBA needs to get stuck in with the AUD and be firmer on what it sees as the target. The AUD/NZD is affecting this pair, the cross-rate has come alive with the demise of the NZD/USD and this has a great deal to do with the current elevated price of the AUD/USD, probably to the annoyance of Governor Stevens. The range is 0.9300 to 0.9450.\r\n\r\n<strong>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8609</strong>. The big number that I was working with last Friday (9<sup>th</sup> May 2014) was 0.8615 as support…look where it closed the week. I am short this pair and intend to remain short for sometime to come; I struggled with much higher levels and was patient. Now I am hungry for my pips. I will add again to my position on a break below 0.8600. The range is 0.8600 support to 0.8780 resistance.\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.0897.</strong> The crazy loonie, I got stopped out on Thursday for a 221-pip loss and then the next day we got a rally on really poor employment data. I did not see that coming. We have a “tweezer” candlestick pattern pretty much in play. The move with this pattern is to 1.1000. Support is at 1.0840.\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.8862</strong>. As the EUR/USD falls the inverse relationship with the USD/CHF is in play. One of my long term trades, still with it over a month now and patience is paying dividends. If we can get above 0.8950, I think we are going to head much, much higher. Support is really good at 0.8800<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/JPY: Closing Price 101.86. </strong>Very interesting, JPY crosses had a bad day on Friday last week, the EUR/JPY in particular. The USD/JPY held up very well and this is a pair as you now from TRADES ON MY RADAR SECTION that interests me along with the other JPY pairs. The range is 101.40 to 102.10.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>8. MAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:</strong>\r\n\r\nSUNDAY: CNY – HSBC Manufacturing PMi.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: EUR – German ZEW Economic Sentiment.\r\nTUESDAY: AUD – Annual Budget Release.\r\nTUESDAY: NZD - RBNZ Wheeler speaks.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: GBP – BOE Carney speaks &amp; BOE Inflation Report.\r\nWEDNESDAY: NZD – Annual Budget Release.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: USD – Core CPi.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>9. FINAL THOUGHTS:</strong>\r\n\r\nI am expecting more of the same over the coming week, the only difference, and, it could be a big difference is we may have direction following the ECB Press Conference last week. Additionally, there are moves now out of tight ranges and this should help with momentum.\r\n\r\nHowever, you still have to be ready for false breakouts and false breakdowns. There are so many inflection points close by in equities and bonds that the potential spikey moves could impact the Forex markets, despite it’s recent moves out of ranges coupled with the momentum directional moves of the EUR.\r\n\r\nTake care and good luck. Be careful with position sizes.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nSaturday May 10th 2014\r\n\r\nEMAIL / FOLLOW ME AT:\r\npremiumservice@weeklyfxdrivethru.com\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\nTwitter: @ThePremService\r\nGoogle+/scottpickering\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','THE ECB - ARE WE ON A PROMISE…MARKET REACTION SAYS YES?','','inherit','open','closed','','3653-revision-v1','','','2014-05-10 10:36:50','2014-05-10 15:36:50','',3653,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/3653-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(3655,1,'2014-05-10 10:37:54','2014-05-10 15:37:54','&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>1. INTRODUCTION:</strong>\r\n\r\nThe roller coaster ride in trading the Forex market continues. Until Draghi uttered the words “The Governing council of the ECB is comfortable with acting in June” coupled with “The Euro exchange rate is a serious concern” the USD was being taken to the cleaners and on the way there was being given a severe whipping. The USD index looked as it if was about to cave in. Just 24 hours later the EUR/USD was trading 200 pips lower and the GBP/USD 150 pips lower; an amazing turnaround.\r\n\r\nDuring the past 5 days we also saw a huge number of major news releases from Australia. My overall observation at the end of the week is that both RBA Stevens and RBNZ Wheeler, could be using pretty much the same scriptwriters with regards to their comments on their currencies. The only difference being that Wheeler has threatened direct intervention to bring the value of the NZD lower. Stevens once again re-iterated last Tuesday that the AUD was too high. He is partially to blame for this jump higher in the AUD/USD. Two months ago he really talked it down by stating 0.8000 – 0.8500 was a more appropriate level. He did not keep banging the drum he took his eye off the ball and the AUD/USD rose towards 0.9470 in the recent caning given to the USD. Had he been consistent the AUD/USD exchange rate would be sub 0.9000.\r\n\r\nNow we have the situation where, the ECB, RBA and RBNZ are talking dirty on currency exchange rates. As I have said many times talk is cheap. Draghi at the ECB looks like he is going to act next month, Wheeler at the RBNZ may directly intervene, where does that leave the RBA and Governor Stevens?\r\n\r\nFriday saw a disastrous set of job figures for Canada, the market was expecting +12,800 for April, instead, Canada lost 28,900. For a smaller populated country like Canada this was an awful result. There will be calls for stimulus in Canada if the next few sets of key economic data releases are poor. Personally, I think the BOC should react and cut rates. Let’s NOT pontificate like other central banks, let’s be decisive and pro-active and do something. Time will tell.\r\n\r\nFinally, I wanted to share something with you regarding the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\nAbout a couple of months ago, I launched a 4-week low cost $20.00 trial. Previously at the launch of the PREMIUM SERVICE I had resisted doing this, as what is happening now is what I thought could happen when why my gut feeling was not to offer this option. At renewal, I advise subscribers that the on-going option is from 10 to 40 weeks, ranging from $150 - $400 dependent upon the subscription period. About 50% renew 50% do not, I ask the “do not’s” why?\r\n\r\nI am concerned: as I ask, not interrogate, I am told it’s NOT the costs involved, although one or two have said this, but the main reason is it\'s the fact I am not doing enough trades per day. Surely, trades per day is relative to the market conditions…the opportunities…the risks.\r\n\r\nForex trading is not gambling. Forex trading is RISK ASSESSEMENT, you require total 100% DISCIPLINE to survive. I know from various social network media that many people see Forex trading as an easy fast killing to make thousands of $$$$. Oh my God, I am stunned by some of the responses I am getting.\r\n\r\nPlease, please….you should only trade if you see trades that meet your plan and guidelines. I have been a Forex trader for 7 years and I want to remain a Forex trader for at least another 7 years, longer if possible. Additionally, if you see Forex as quick way to deliver $$$, please do not subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\nI have zero intention of blowing my accounts out in a dysfunctional marketplace. I am a Conservative/cautious “Steady Eddie” trader. My existing subscribers will admit to seeing me write on twitter that I screwed up an entry every now and then, I am human. I have losses, some because I get over stubborn on trades. The most recent example being the USD/CAD long, I took a hit of over 200 pips last Thursday. I should have exited a long time ago. I was in that trade for 38 days. I am NOT perfect; my wife will confirm this fact. I have learned the hard way how to apply DISCIPLINE to trading. If you want a fast cash gain you might as well gamble and go to Las Vegas and play a few tables.\r\n\r\nAs my father once said, “Gambling is a mugs game”. I had gamblers in my subscriber base; God only knows what size positions they were trading.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>The keys to Forex trading longevity in my opinion are: -</strong></p>\r\n<strong>DISCIPLINE (understand the power of Leverage)</strong>\r\n<strong> RISK AND EFFECTIVE MONEY MANAGEMENT PLAN YOUR TRADES </strong>\r\n<strong> TRADE YOUR TRADING PLAN RULES and GUIDELINES.</strong>\r\n\r\nEvery trader surely has a goal to make money from trading, but one has to be RESILIENT and DISCIPLINED\r\n\r\nI apologize, if you think my thoughts are overkill. But, unless you try to RISK MANAGE you may as well burn your cash on the fire in my opinion.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>2. TRADING SUMMARY:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>RADAR, FLASH and FUNDAMENTAL TRADES\r\n</strong><strong>MAY 2014 and YEAR to date:</strong>\r\n\r\nBelow I show the up to date performances for my various trading styles. Full excel spreadsheets are in the subscriber area of the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/PREM-SERVICE-PROFITS-1-10052014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-3644\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/PREM-SERVICE-PROFITS-1-10052014.png\" alt=\"PREM SERVICE PROFITS 1 10052014\" width=\"449\" height=\"413\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/PREM-SERVICE-PROFITS-2-10052014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-3645\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/PREM-SERVICE-PROFITS-2-10052014.png\" alt=\"PREM SERVICE PROFITS 2 10052014\" width=\"451\" height=\"413\" /></a>\r\n\r\nThe above examples are for illustration purposes only:\r\n\r\nThe profitability examples detailed above are based solely upon single lot trading, regardless of lot type. If multiple lot sizes are traded the profitability margins will be different than those shown.\r\n\r\nJust to provide more information so you understand where I am coming from with the risk / reward statements above. All of my trades are of different sizes and different size lot types. The above does not reflect the actual trading performance, but it does show you the direction of the performance of the trades placed.\r\n\r\nI like to add to trades, profits are taken as the trade progresses and my overall cost average moves several times. All of my trades are of different lot styles. I trade a mixture of micro lots, mini lots and standard lots across my brokers.\r\n\r\nThe above results simply display your profit or loss if you placed a single lot trade on all the set-ups suggested and did nothing else.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>3. THE FUNDAMENTAL TRADERS OVERVIEW:</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>THE ECB - ARE WE ON A PROMISE…MARKET REACTION SAYS YES?</strong></p>\r\nAnother ECB press Conference goes by and despite many calls for action from within the Eurozone for the ECB to act on DEFLATION and the high EUR exchange rate that is in effect across almost all currencies, nothing was done\r\n\r\nHowever, Draghi admitted that the ECB Governing Body has discussed the matters and the ECB now has a green to go if it wants to, by the next meeting in June 2014.\r\n\r\nThe market reaction was immediate. The EUR/USD sell off started. In 24 hours we had a 200-pip fall. If you remember, the last time Draghi acted was to cut rates by 0.25% and we saw a huge 200-pip fall followed by, at the end of the day a much larger bounce. This time it’s different, well at least the market believes this time, that Draghi means business.\r\n\r\nDraghi has backed himself into a corner. A few weeks ago I wrote about the DEFLATION issues in the Eurozone. It looks like inflation forecasts will be wound back lower next month, given the fact that The European Commission has recently revised expectations downward. So if Draghi does NOT act in June, then\r\n\r\nMr. “Whatever it takes” Draghi will lose all credibility.\r\n\r\nWhat will he / can he do?\r\n\r\nWell, he has really upped the ante this time:\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Governing body comfortable to act in June</strong>\r\n<strong> The Euro exchange rate is a serious concern</strong></p>\r\nThe issue / problem as I see it, is that no matter what the ECB decides to do, and there a few options, none of them are in the same league as the BOJ QE programmes of Quantitative easing and Qualitative easing, that was able at the launch to move the YEN by about 35% in a few weeks.\r\n\r\nThe structure of the ECB, albeit, allegedly independent of political influence…(and if you believe that you would also believe that I am running for President!), simply does not allow them game changing, large-scale measures like the FED or the BOJ.\r\n\r\nThe list of options hasn’t really changed from what I have written previously: -\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>LTRO - (Longer Term Refinancing Options). </strong>\r\n<strong> Lowering its Refinancing rate to zero.</strong>\r\n<strong> Negative overnight ECB Deposit Rates.</strong>\r\n<strong> QE (Quantitative Easing).</strong></p>\r\nI think that whatever is decided it has to show strength of commitment from the ECB otherwise if it is a “wishy-washy” attempt to ease, it will be responded to that way and the EUR/USD, in particular, could once again strengthen.\r\n\r\nThere are 4 weeks between now and the next meeting for all the debates on the options open to Draghi and his peers to take hold. Let the merriment begin.\r\n\r\nFrom a trading perspective, we have seen pretty much a universal EUR fall across all cross-rates as well as the EUR/USD.\r\n\r\nWhere do I see the EUR pairs falling to? This is dependent on the reaction with the EUR/USD, but do not rule out the EUR/JPY. The Eurozone trades heavily with Japan and to some extent the EUR/JPY cross-rate could pull the EUR/USD. Do not rule this out.\r\n\r\nI include a monthly chart of the EUR/USD below. I think that 1.3436 (76.4% Fibonacci level) (1.3450), is probably where my thoughts are at the moment as a possible short target.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/EURUSD-MONTHLY-10052014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-3641\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/EURUSD-MONTHLY-10052014-1024x424.png\" alt=\"EURUSD MONTHLY 10052014\" width=\"1024\" height=\"424\" /></a>\r\n\r\nPossible lows on the crosses if the EUR/USD targets the 1.3450 area are: -\r\n\r\nEUR/JPY: 132.00 (The 50% Fibonacci retracement of last big move)\r\n\r\nEUR/CAD: 1.4400 (If the CAD rallies back towards 1.1200, this may not happen)\r\n\r\nEUR/AUD: 1.4000 (If the AUD breaks lower, this may not be achieved)\r\n\r\nEUR/NZD: 1.5000 (If the NZD breaks lower, this may not be reached)\r\n\r\nReferring to the prices above, a great deal depends on how the cross-rates react. The Commodity crosses may hold up the EUR/USD fall if the commodity currencies also weaken in line with USD strength. But the levels above are very much in the target zone in my opinion.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>4. TRADER TOPICS:</strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>PROBABILITIES IN TRADING:</strong></p>\r\nI was speaking over the telephone a few days ago with one or two subscribers to the PREMIUM SERVICE. I noticed a consistency, as they were relatively new traders to Forex. The consistency was that they spoke as if they knew what the markets were going to do next. In reality, experienced traders would usually speak in probabilities and typically have some form of analysis to back up their opinion.\r\n\r\nNo one can say that a particular currency pair will move to an exact point with absolute certainty. In fact, I feel it is naïve to think that anyone can predict the direction of a currency pair with absolute certainty over a given period of time. Sure, sometimes you could be correct if you boldly predict that a pair will move to X level with absolute certainty. However, there will be other times when the market doesn’t go your way. That is why we must deal with probabilities, because no one knows for sure what will happen next in a given currency pair.\r\n\r\nThe reason we can never know where a currency pair is going with absolute certainty is that the markets move based on the will of every market participant. Let’s suppose that someone stated “the EUR/USD will definitely rise to point X, before falling down to point Y”. They are saying that they know exactly what every trader is thinking, how each of these traders plan to act, and how each trader will respond to the actions of every other trader. Needless to say, no one could ever have that information.\r\n\r\nHowever, it isn’t uncommon to see bold predictions that definitely state which direction a currency pair will go and exactly where the move will begin and end. No one can know these types of moves for certain. Even worse, it isn’t hard to find predictions that say something like “buy the USD/JPY at X or you will regret it”. This baseless claim gives virtually no useful information because we don’t have any idea how long of a trade this would be or where the exits (stop and limit(s)) are. Without being too harsh, just beware of anyone who claims they know for certain where a currency pair is headed. Of course everyone can be entitled to his or her opinion, but that doesn’t mean they “know” what will happen next.\r\n\r\nEven if an insider were to know about an interest rate change ahead of its release, that doesn’t mean they can predict exactly how the market can act. What if the interest rate briefly rises the pair into massive stop-sell orders that actually move the market down for the day? What if enough market participants felt the rate would move higher, so the pair moves lower? There are endless scenarios, but it is virtually impossible to predict how every market participant will act within a constantly changing market.\r\n\r\nTherefore, we must think in probabilities.\r\n\r\nNo matter how good / sensational your analysis is, sometimes you will simply be on the wrong side of the market. Whether you are looking at fundamental news announcements, a combination of technical tools, or a simple moving average, as traders what we are looking for are patterns that put the probabilities in our favour so that we will profit in the long run. In other words, we are looking for how the market has reacted in the past to certain conditions, and speculating how likely the market will react in the future to similar conditions.\r\n\r\nRegardless of the tools you use to analyise the market, you are still working with probabilities. If you find a system that is profitable over a long period of time, that system is likely putting the probabilities on your side. These systems come in a variety of shapes and sizes.\r\n\r\nEvery trader has their own system; one of my trading buddies is hooked on an easy mathematical calculation system….makes no sense to me but he says it works for him.\r\n\r\nI think I have his system correct below.\r\n\r\nHe uses only SMA’s and Bollinger bands plus pressure charts to show both momentum and trends. Exactly how he determines an entry or exit I am not 100% certain: -\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>The system requires 40% of trades to reach the profit target in order to break even.</li>\r\n	<li>The reason for 40% is that he works on a risk/reward ratio of 1:1.5.</li>\r\n	<li>Therefore, if he has only a 50% success rate on profitable trades, he would be very profitable over time.</li>\r\n	<li>Even having 45% of all trades being profitable is a success and provides a great return.</li>\r\n	<li>In fact, anything above a 50% profitable trade rate is fantastic.</li>\r\n	<li>Therefore, it is plain to see that it is not necessary to know where the market will go on each individual trade. Instead, it is important to have a system that that places increased probabilities in your favour over a large sample size of trades</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nAt the end of the day, it’s is all about RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, as traders we are RISK ASSESSORS…we PLAN OUR TRADES and TRADE OUR TRADING PLANS. No matter what system you adapt to for trading, as long as you have good discipline, you stand a better than average chance of survival as a trader. Without discipline you are doomed over time.\r\n\r\nMany of the PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers have asked me, what do I use to plan a trade.\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>Discipline.</li>\r\n	<li>Fibonacci levels</li>\r\n	<li>Pivot points</li>\r\n	<li>100 and 200 day SMA’s</li>\r\n	<li>Sometimes….Bollinger bands (I hate my charts to look too busy).</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nAs long as you can use and relate to the probabilities in trading in your favour and that they work over an extended longer period of time, the individual results on each individual trade are almost meaningless. Like all traders I take losses. The key is to manage those losses correctly so that the long-term track record remains profitable.\r\n\r\nThe bottom line is that thinking of trading in terms of probabilities is a key step to becoming a successful trader.<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n5. MY CURRENT LIVE TRADES:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>FLASH TRADES:</strong>\r\n\r\nI am in several positions and I am not 100% happy with them all but many positions are very small position sizes that I do not mind holding. I am maybe too optimistic that I will engineer my way out of these poorer trades but my RISK MANAGEMENT is still 100%.\r\n\r\nFT73\r\nUSD/CHF\r\nLong\r\nCost Average / Entry Level: 0.8937\r\nStop Loss: 0.8800\r\nLimit / Target: 0.9250\r\nWeekly Closing Price: 0.8862\r\nPosition: -76 pips\r\n\r\nFT77\r\nEUR/USD\r\nShort\r\nCost Average / Entry Level: 1.3744\r\nStop Loss: 1.3950\r\nLimit / Target: 1.3450\r\nWeekly Closing Price: 1.3757\r\nPosition: -13 pips\r\n\r\nFT106\r\nNZD/USD\r\nShort\r\nCost Average / Entry Level: 0.8533\r\nStop Loss: 0.8750\r\nLimit / Target: 0.8400\r\nWeekly Closing Price: 0.8609\r\nPosition: -76 pips\r\n\r\n<strong>RADAR TRADES:</strong>\r\n\r\nI have no open RADAR TRADES at the moment.<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>FUNDAMENTAL TRADES:</strong>\r\n\r\nFUN14\r\nGBP/NZD\r\n(This trade is hedged from -150 pips)\r\nLong\r\nCost Average: 1.9950\r\nStop Loss: 1.9000\r\nLimit / Target: 2.2350\r\nWeekly Closing Price: 1.9555\r\nPosition: - 395 pips\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>6. TRADES THAT ARE ON MY RADAR:</strong>\r\n\r\nDue to the continuing Ukraine / Russian tensions I am not looking to add any trades over this weekend.\r\n\r\nI would wait until we set how the weekend plays out with the tensions around the globe and the politician sound-bytes that will no doubt be aired in Sunday’s press and on TV.\r\n\r\nHaving written that, these are the trades on my mind for early next week.\r\n\r\nAUD/NZD\r\nLong\r\nEntry (above the breakout point) at 1.0950.\r\nStop Loss 1.0750\r\nLimit 1.1350\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD\r\nLong\r\nEntry 1.0880.\r\nStop Loss 1.0800\r\nLimit 1.1120\r\n\r\nUSD/NOK\r\nLong\r\nEntry 5.9050\r\nStop Loss 5.7500\r\nLimit 7.2500\r\n\r\nUSD/SEK\r\nLong\r\nEntry at 6.5600\r\nStop Loss 6.5100\r\nLimit 6.9700\r\n\r\nAs you can see from the chart below, we are attempting another breakout. I would keep your eyes peeled if I enter this trade. When there is a bit of light above the entry level my objective would be to move my stop to breakeven. Given the Eurozone news and the USD strength, this may be the time we see the explosive upside move. But, just in case, we should also be prepared for a failure.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/USDSEK-WEEKLY-10052014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-3642\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/USDSEK-WEEKLY-10052014-1024x424.png\" alt=\"USDSEK WEEKLY 10052014\" width=\"1024\" height=\"424\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nIn addition all of the JPY pairs are on my RADAR. I will be looking at these in detail next Monday. As you know, I am NOT a fan of Sunday night’s in Asia and I do not want risk exposure until we have had at least one Asian and one European session out of the way. I will make a feature of the JPY pairs in Monday’s (12<sup>th</sup> May) DAILY FX POST if the current conditions persist.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>7. LOOKING FORWARD…THE KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3757.</strong> Following the ECB Press Conference the EUR/USD has slid about 250 pips from almost touching 1.4000. Now the question is how far will it fall ahead of the next ECB Press Conference in June. My medium term target from my short EUR/USD trades of late has been 1.3450. Right now, I see no reason to change that goal. However, in the short-term, I am expecting some consolidation next week and I think we may have a little range bound activity to work off the oversold conditions that you can see on the charts. I am thinking that for this coming week the range will be around 1.3700 to 1.3840. I could be wrong, but this is what I think as of now.\r\n\r\n<strong>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.6847</strong>. This pair almost got to 1.7000, and then it fell from grace like the EUR/USD. It too has pulled back about 250 pips off its highs.\r\nOver the coming week I see 1.6750 to 1.6920 as the range to break out of. Ultimately, if the EUR/USD falls so will the GBP and I expect us back around 1.6500.\r\n\r\n<strong>AUD/USD: Closing Price 0.9360</strong>. This pair is not reacting the way that I thought it would. I am staying away for a little while until it makes its mind up if it is moving lower or going to attack 0.9500. The RBA needs to get stuck in with the AUD and be firmer on what it sees as the target. The AUD/NZD is affecting this pair, the cross-rate has come alive with the demise of the NZD/USD and this has a great deal to do with the current elevated price of the AUD/USD, probably to the annoyance of Governor Stevens. The range is 0.9300 to 0.9450.\r\n\r\n<strong>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8609</strong>. The big number that I was working with last Friday (9<sup>th</sup> May 2014) was 0.8615 as support…look where it closed the week. I am short this pair and intend to remain short for sometime to come; I struggled with much higher levels and was patient. Now I am hungry for my pips. I will add again to my position on a break below 0.8600. The range is 0.8600 support to 0.8780 resistance.\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.0897.</strong> The crazy loonie, I got stopped out on Thursday for a 221-pip loss and then the next day we got a rally on really poor employment data. I did not see that coming. We have a “tweezer” candlestick pattern pretty much in play. The move with this pattern is to 1.1000. Support is at 1.0840.\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.8862</strong>. As the EUR/USD falls the inverse relationship with the USD/CHF is in play. One of my long term trades, still with it over a month now and patience is paying dividends. If we can get above 0.8950, I think we are going to head much, much higher. Support is really good at 0.8800<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/JPY: Closing Price 101.86. </strong>Very interesting, JPY crosses had a bad day on Friday last week, the EUR/JPY in particular. The USD/JPY held up very well and this is a pair as you now from TRADES ON MY RADAR SECTION that interests me along with the other JPY pairs. The range is 101.40 to 102.10.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>8. MAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:</strong>\r\n\r\nSUNDAY: CNY – HSBC Manufacturing PMi.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: EUR – German ZEW Economic Sentiment.\r\nTUESDAY: AUD – Annual Budget Release.\r\nTUESDAY: NZD - RBNZ Wheeler speaks.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: GBP – BOE Carney speaks &amp; BOE Inflation Report.\r\nWEDNESDAY: NZD – Annual Budget Release.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: USD – Core CPi.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>9. FINAL THOUGHTS:</strong>\r\n\r\nI am expecting more of the same over the coming week, the only difference, and, it could be a big difference is we may have direction following the ECB Press Conference last week. Additionally, there are moves now out of tight ranges and this should help with momentum.\r\n\r\nHowever, you still have to be ready for false breakouts and false breakdowns. There are so many inflection points close by in equities and bonds that the potential spikey moves could impact the Forex markets, despite it’s recent moves out of ranges coupled with the momentum directional moves of the EUR.\r\n\r\nTake care and good luck. Be careful with position sizes.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nSaturday May 10th 2014\r\n\r\nEMAIL / FOLLOW ME AT:\r\npremiumservice@weeklyfxdrivethru.com\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\nTwitter: @ThePremService\r\nGoogle+/scottpickering\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','THE ECB - ARE WE ON A PROMISE…MARKET REACTION SAYS YES?','','inherit','open','closed','','3653-revision-v1','','','2014-05-10 10:37:54','2014-05-10 15:37:54','',3653,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/3653-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(3656,1,'2014-05-10 10:40:26','2014-05-10 15:40:26','&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>1. INTRODUCTION:</strong>\r\n\r\nThe roller coaster ride in trading the Forex market continues. Until Draghi uttered the words “The Governing council of the ECB is comfortable with acting in June” coupled with “The Euro exchange rate is a serious concern” the USD was being taken to the cleaners and on the way there was being given a severe whipping. The USD index looked as it if was about to cave in. Just 24 hours later the EUR/USD was trading 200 pips lower and the GBP/USD 150 pips lower; an amazing turnaround.\r\n\r\nDuring the past 5 days we also saw a huge number of major news releases from Australia. My overall observation at the end of the week is that both RBA Stevens and RBNZ Wheeler, could be using pretty much the same scriptwriter with regards to their comments on their currencies. The only difference being that Wheeler has threatened direct intervention to bring the value of the NZD lower. Stevens once again re-iterated last Tuesday that the AUD was too high. He is partially to blame for this jump higher in the AUD/USD. Two months ago he really talked it down by stating 0.8000 – 0.8500 was a more appropriate level. He did not keep banging the drum he took his eye off the ball and the AUD/USD rose towards 0.9470 in the recent caning given to the USD. Had he been consistent the AUD/USD exchange rate would be sub 0.9000.\r\n\r\nNow we have the situation where, the ECB, RBA and RBNZ are talking dirty on currency exchange rates. As I have said many times talk is cheap. Draghi at the ECB looks like he is going to act next month, Wheeler at the RBNZ may directly intervene, where does that leave the RBA and Governor Stevens?\r\n\r\nFriday saw a disastrous set of job figures for Canada, the market was expecting +12,800 for April, instead, Canada lost 28,900. For a smaller populated country like Canada this was an awful result. There will be calls for stimulus in Canada if the next few sets of key economic data releases are poor. Personally, I think the BOC should react and cut rates. Let’s NOT pontificate like other central banks, let’s be decisive and pro-active and do something. Time will tell.\r\n\r\nFinally, I wanted to share something with you regarding the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\nAbout a couple of months ago, I launched a 4-week low cost $20.00 trial. Previously at the launch of the PREMIUM SERVICE I had resisted doing this, as what is happening now is what I thought could happen when why my gut feeling was not to offer this option. At renewal, I advise subscribers that the on-going option is from 10 to 40 weeks, ranging from $150 - $400 dependent upon the subscription period. About 50% renew 50% do not, I ask the “do not’s” why?\r\n\r\nI am concerned: as I ask, not interrogate, I am told it’s NOT the costs involved, although one or two have said this, but the main reason is it\'s the fact I am not doing enough trades per day. Surely, trades per day is relative to the market conditions…the opportunities…the risks.\r\n\r\nForex trading is not gambling. Forex trading is RISK ASSESSMENT, you require total 100% DISCIPLINE to survive. I know from various social network media that many people see Forex trading as an easy fast killing to make thousands of $$$$. Oh my God, I am stunned by some of the responses I am getting.\r\n\r\nPlease, please….you should only trade if you see trades that meet your plan and guidelines. I have been a Forex trader for 7 years and I want to remain a Forex trader for at least another 7 years, longer if possible. Additionally, if you see Forex as quick way to deliver $$$, please do not subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\nI have zero intention of blowing my accounts out in a dysfunctional marketplace. I am a Conservative/cautious “Steady Eddie” trader. My existing subscribers will admit to seeing me write on twitter that I screwed up an entry every now and then, I am human. I have losses, some because I get over stubborn on trades. The most recent example being the USD/CAD long, I took a hit of over 200 pips last Thursday. I should have exited a long time ago. I was in that trade for 38 days. I am NOT perfect; my wife will confirm this fact. I have learned the hard way how to apply DISCIPLINE to trading. If you want a fast cash gain you might as well gamble and go to Las Vegas and play a few tables.\r\n\r\nAs my father once said, “Gambling is a mugs game”. I had gamblers in my subscriber base; God only knows what size positions they were trading.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>The keys to Forex trading longevity in my opinion are: -</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>DISCIPLINE (understand the power of Leverage)</strong>\r\n<strong> RISK AND EFFECTIVE MONEY MANAGEMENT PLAN YOUR TRADES </strong>\r\n<strong> TRADE YOUR TRADING PLAN RULES and GUIDELINES.</strong></p>\r\nEvery trader surely has a goal to make money from trading, but one has to be RESILIENT and DISCIPLINED\r\n\r\nI apologize, if you think my thoughts are overkill. But, unless you try to RISK MANAGE you may as well burn your cash on the fire in my opinion.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>2. TRADING SUMMARY:</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>RADAR, FLASH and FUNDAMENTAL TRADES\r\n</strong><strong>MAY 2014 and YEAR to date:</strong></p>\r\nBelow I show the up to date performances for my various trading styles. Full excel spreadsheets are in the subscriber area of the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/PREM-SERVICE-PROFITS-1-10052014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-3644\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/PREM-SERVICE-PROFITS-1-10052014.png\" alt=\"PREM SERVICE PROFITS 1 10052014\" width=\"449\" height=\"413\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/PREM-SERVICE-PROFITS-2-10052014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-3645\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/PREM-SERVICE-PROFITS-2-10052014.png\" alt=\"PREM SERVICE PROFITS 2 10052014\" width=\"451\" height=\"413\" /></a>\r\n\r\nThe above examples are for illustration purposes only:\r\n\r\nThe profitability examples detailed above are based solely upon single lot trading, regardless of lot type. If multiple lot sizes are traded the profitability margins will be different than those shown.\r\n\r\nJust to provide more information so you understand where I am coming from with the risk / reward statements above. All of my trades are of different sizes and different size lot types. The above does not reflect the actual trading performance, but it does show you the direction of the performance of the trades placed.\r\n\r\nI like to add to trades, profits are taken as the trade progresses and my overall cost average moves several times. All of my trades are of different lot styles. I trade a mixture of micro lots, mini lots and standard lots across my brokers.\r\n\r\nThe above results simply display your profit or loss if you placed a single lot trade on all the set-ups suggested and did nothing else.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>3. THE FUNDAMENTAL TRADERS OVERVIEW:</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>THE ECB - ARE WE ON A PROMISE…MARKET REACTION SAYS YES?</strong></p>\r\nAnother ECB press Conference goes by and despite many calls for action from within the Eurozone for the ECB to act on DEFLATION and the high EUR exchange rate that is in effect across almost all currencies, nothing was done\r\n\r\nHowever, Draghi admitted that the ECB Governing Body has discussed the matters and the ECB now has a green to go if it wants to, by the next meeting in June 2014.\r\n\r\nThe market reaction was immediate. The EUR/USD sell off started. In 24 hours we had a 200-pip fall. If you remember, the last time Draghi acted was to cut rates by 0.25% and we saw a huge 200-pip fall followed by, at the end of the day a much larger bounce. This time it’s different, well at least the market believes this time, that Draghi means business.\r\n\r\nDraghi has backed himself into a corner. A few weeks ago I wrote about the DEFLATION issues in the Eurozone. It looks like inflation forecasts will be wound back lower next month, given the fact that The European Commission has recently revised expectations downward. So if Draghi does NOT act in June, then\r\n\r\nMr. “Whatever it takes” Draghi will lose all credibility.\r\n\r\nWhat will he / can he do?\r\n\r\nWell, he has really upped the ante this time:\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Governing body comfortable to act in June</strong>\r\n<strong> The Euro exchange rate is a serious concern</strong></p>\r\nThe issue / problem as I see it, is that no matter what the ECB decides to do, and there a few options, none of them are in the same league as the BOJ QE programmes of Quantitative easing and Qualitative easing, that was able at the launch to move the YEN by about 35% in a few weeks.\r\n\r\nThe structure of the ECB, albeit, allegedly independent of political influence…(and if you believe that you would also believe that I am running for President!), simply does not allow them game changing, large-scale measures like the FED or the BOJ.\r\n\r\nThe list of options hasn’t really changed from what I have written previously: -\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>LTRO - (Longer Term Refinancing Options). </strong>\r\n<strong> Lowering its Refinancing rate to zero.</strong>\r\n<strong> Negative overnight ECB Deposit Rates.</strong>\r\n<strong> QE (Quantitative Easing).</strong></p>\r\nI think that whatever is decided it has to show strength of commitment from the ECB otherwise if it is a “wishy-washy” attempt to ease, it will be responded to that way and the EUR/USD, in particular, could once again strengthen.\r\n\r\nThere are 4 weeks between now and the next meeting for all the debates on the options open to Draghi and his peers to take hold. Let the merriment begin.\r\n\r\nFrom a trading perspective, we have seen pretty much a universal EUR fall across all cross-rates as well as the EUR/USD.\r\n\r\nWhere do I see the EUR pairs falling to? This is dependent on the reaction with the EUR/USD, but do not rule out the EUR/JPY. The Eurozone trades heavily with Japan and to some extent the EUR/JPY cross-rate could pull the EUR/USD. Do not rule this out.\r\n\r\nI include a monthly chart of the EUR/USD below. I think that 1.3436 (76.4% Fibonacci level) (1.3450), is probably where my thoughts are at the moment as a possible short target.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/EURUSD-MONTHLY-10052014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-3641\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/EURUSD-MONTHLY-10052014-1024x424.png\" alt=\"EURUSD MONTHLY 10052014\" width=\"1024\" height=\"424\" /></a>\r\n\r\nPossible lows on the crosses if the EUR/USD targets the 1.3450 area are: -\r\n\r\nEUR/JPY: 132.00 (The 50% Fibonacci retracement of last big move)\r\n\r\nEUR/CAD: 1.4400 (If the CAD rallies back towards 1.1200, this may not happen)\r\n\r\nEUR/AUD: 1.4000 (If the AUD breaks lower, this may not be achieved)\r\n\r\nEUR/NZD: 1.5000 (If the NZD breaks lower, this may not be reached)\r\n\r\nReferring to the prices above, a great deal depends on how the cross-rates react. The Commodity crosses may hold up the EUR/USD fall if the commodity currencies also weaken in line with USD strength. But the levels above are very much in the target zone in my opinion.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>4. TRADER TOPICS:</strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>PROBABILITIES IN TRADING:</strong></p>\r\nI was speaking over the telephone a few days ago with one or two subscribers to the PREMIUM SERVICE. I noticed a consistency, as they were relatively new traders to Forex. The consistency was that they spoke as if they knew what the markets were going to do next. In reality, experienced traders would usually speak in probabilities and typically have some form of analysis to back up their opinion.\r\n\r\nNo one can say that a particular currency pair will move to an exact point with absolute certainty. In fact, I feel it is naïve to think that anyone can predict the direction of a currency pair with absolute certainty over a given period of time. Sure, sometimes you could be correct if you boldly predict that a pair will move to X level with absolute certainty. However, there will be other times when the market doesn’t go your way. That is why we must deal with probabilities, because no one knows for sure what will happen next in a given currency pair.\r\n\r\nThe reason we can never know where a currency pair is going with absolute certainty is that the markets move based on the will of every market participant. Let’s suppose that someone stated “the EUR/USD will definitely rise to point X, before falling down to point Y”. They are saying that they know exactly what every trader is thinking, how each of these traders plan to act, and how each trader will respond to the actions of every other trader. Needless to say, no one could ever have that information.\r\n\r\nHowever, it isn’t uncommon to see bold predictions that definitely state which direction a currency pair will go and exactly where the move will begin and end. No one can know these types of moves for certain. Even worse, it isn’t hard to find predictions that say something like “buy the USD/JPY at X or you will regret it”. This baseless claim gives virtually no useful information because we don’t have any idea how long of a trade this would be or where the exits (stop and limit(s)) are. Without being too harsh, just beware of anyone who claims they know for certain where a currency pair is headed. Of course everyone can be entitled to his or her opinion, but that doesn’t mean they “know” what will happen next.\r\n\r\nEven if an insider were to know about an interest rate change ahead of its release, that doesn’t mean they can predict exactly how the market can act. What if the interest rate briefly rises the pair into massive stop-sell orders that actually move the market down for the day? What if enough market participants felt the rate would move higher, so the pair moves lower? There are endless scenarios, but it is virtually impossible to predict how every market participant will act within a constantly changing market.\r\n\r\nTherefore, we must think in probabilities.\r\n\r\nNo matter how good / sensational your analysis is, sometimes you will simply be on the wrong side of the market. Whether you are looking at fundamental news announcements, a combination of technical tools, or a simple moving average, as traders what we are looking for are patterns that put the probabilities in our favour so that we will profit in the long run. In other words, we are looking for how the market has reacted in the past to certain conditions, and speculating how likely the market will react in the future to similar conditions.\r\n\r\nRegardless of the tools you use to analyise the market, you are still working with probabilities. If you find a system that is profitable over a long period of time, that system is likely putting the probabilities on your side. These systems come in a variety of shapes and sizes.\r\n\r\nEvery trader has their own system; one of my trading buddies is hooked on an easy mathematical calculation system….makes no sense to me but he says it works for him.\r\n\r\nI think I have his system correct below.\r\n\r\nHe uses only SMA’s and Bollinger bands plus pressure charts to show both momentum and trends. Exactly how he determines an entry or exit I am not 100% certain: -\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>The system requires 40% of trades to reach the profit target in order to break even.</li>\r\n	<li>The reason for 40% is that he works on a risk/reward ratio of 1:1.5.</li>\r\n	<li>Therefore, if he has only a 50% success rate on profitable trades, he would be very profitable over time.</li>\r\n	<li>Even having 45% of all trades being profitable is a success and provides a great return.</li>\r\n	<li>In fact, anything above a 50% profitable trade rate is fantastic.</li>\r\n	<li>Therefore, it is plain to see that it is not necessary to know where the market will go on each individual trade. Instead, it is important to have a system that that places increased probabilities in your favour over a large sample size of trades</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nAt the end of the day, it’s is all about RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, as traders we are RISK ASSESSORS…we PLAN OUR TRADES and TRADE OUR TRADING PLANS. No matter what system you adapt to for trading, as long as you have good discipline, you stand a better than average chance of survival as a trader. Without discipline you are doomed over time.\r\n\r\nMany of the PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers have asked me, what do I use to plan a trade.\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>Discipline.</li>\r\n	<li>Fibonacci levels</li>\r\n	<li>Pivot points</li>\r\n	<li>100 and 200 day SMA’s</li>\r\n	<li>Sometimes….Bollinger bands (I hate my charts to look too busy).</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nAs long as you can use and relate to the probabilities in trading in your favour and that they work over an extended longer period of time, the individual results on each individual trade are almost meaningless. Like all traders I take losses. The key is to manage those losses correctly so that the long-term track record remains profitable.\r\n\r\nThe bottom line is that thinking of trading in terms of probabilities is a key step to becoming a successful trader.<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n5. MY CURRENT LIVE TRADES:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>FLASH TRADES:</strong>\r\n\r\nI am in several positions and I am not 100% happy with them all but many positions are very small position sizes that I do not mind holding. I am maybe too optimistic that I will engineer my way out of these poorer trades but my RISK MANAGEMENT is still 100%.\r\n\r\nFT73\r\nUSD/CHF\r\nLong\r\nCost Average / Entry Level: 0.8937\r\nStop Loss: 0.8800\r\nLimit / Target: 0.9250\r\nWeekly Closing Price: 0.8862\r\nPosition: -76 pips\r\n\r\nFT77\r\nEUR/USD\r\nShort\r\nCost Average / Entry Level: 1.3744\r\nStop Loss: 1.3950\r\nLimit / Target: 1.3450\r\nWeekly Closing Price: 1.3757\r\nPosition: -13 pips\r\n\r\nFT106\r\nNZD/USD\r\nShort\r\nCost Average / Entry Level: 0.8533\r\nStop Loss: 0.8750\r\nLimit / Target: 0.8400\r\nWeekly Closing Price: 0.8609\r\nPosition: -76 pips\r\n\r\n<strong>RADAR TRADES:</strong>\r\n\r\nI have no open RADAR TRADES at the moment.<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>FUNDAMENTAL TRADES:</strong>\r\n\r\nFUN14\r\nGBP/NZD\r\n(This trade is hedged from -150 pips)\r\nLong\r\nCost Average: 1.9950\r\nStop Loss: 1.9000\r\nLimit / Target: 2.2350\r\nWeekly Closing Price: 1.9555\r\nPosition: - 395 pips\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>6. TRADES THAT ARE ON MY RADAR:</strong>\r\n\r\nDue to the continuing Ukraine / Russian tensions I am not looking to add any trades over this weekend.\r\n\r\nI would wait until we set how the weekend plays out with the tensions around the globe and the politician sound-bytes that will no doubt be aired in Sunday’s press and on TV.\r\n\r\nHaving written that, these are the trades on my mind for early next week.\r\n\r\nAUD/NZD\r\nLong\r\nEntry (above the breakout point) at 1.0950.\r\nStop Loss 1.0750\r\nLimit 1.1350\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD\r\nLong\r\nEntry 1.0880.\r\nStop Loss 1.0800\r\nLimit 1.1120\r\n\r\nUSD/NOK\r\nLong\r\nEntry 5.9050\r\nStop Loss 5.7500\r\nLimit 7.2500\r\n\r\nUSD/SEK\r\nLong\r\nEntry at 6.5600\r\nStop Loss 6.5100\r\nLimit 6.9700\r\n\r\nAs you can see from the chart below, we are attempting another breakout. I would keep your eyes peeled if I enter this trade. When there is a bit of light above the entry level my objective would be to move my stop to breakeven. Given the Eurozone news and the USD strength, this may be the time we see the explosive upside move. But, just in case, we should also be prepared for a failure.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/USDSEK-WEEKLY-10052014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-3642\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/USDSEK-WEEKLY-10052014-1024x424.png\" alt=\"USDSEK WEEKLY 10052014\" width=\"1024\" height=\"424\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nIn addition all of the JPY pairs are on my RADAR. I will be looking at these in detail next Monday. As you know, I am NOT a fan of Sunday night’s in Asia and I do not want risk exposure until we have had at least one Asian and one European session out of the way. I will make a feature of the JPY pairs in Monday’s (12<sup>th</sup> May) DAILY FX POST if the current conditions persist.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>7. LOOKING FORWARD…THE KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3757.</strong> Following the ECB Press Conference the EUR/USD has slid about 250 pips from almost touching 1.4000. Now the question is how far will it fall ahead of the next ECB Press Conference in June. My medium term target from my short EUR/USD trades of late has been 1.3450. Right now, I see no reason to change that goal. However, in the short-term, I am expecting some consolidation next week and I think we may have a little range bound activity to work off the oversold conditions that you can see on the charts. I am thinking that for this coming week the range will be around 1.3700 to 1.3840. I could be wrong, but this is what I think as of now.\r\n\r\n<strong>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.6847</strong>. This pair almost got to 1.7000, and then it fell from grace like the EUR/USD. It too has pulled back about 250 pips off its highs.\r\nOver the coming week I see 1.6750 to 1.6920 as the range to break out of. Ultimately, if the EUR/USD falls so will the GBP and I expect us back around 1.6500.\r\n\r\n<strong>AUD/USD: Closing Price 0.9360</strong>. This pair is not reacting the way that I thought it would. I am staying away for a little while until it makes its mind up if it is moving lower or going to attack 0.9500. The RBA needs to get stuck in with the AUD and be firmer on what it sees as the target. The AUD/NZD is affecting this pair, the cross-rate has come alive with the demise of the NZD/USD and this has a great deal to do with the current elevated price of the AUD/USD, probably to the annoyance of Governor Stevens. The range is 0.9300 to 0.9450.\r\n\r\n<strong>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8609</strong>. The big number that I was working with last Friday (9<sup>th</sup> May 2014) was 0.8615 as support…look where it closed the week. I am short this pair and intend to remain short for sometime to come; I struggled with much higher levels and was patient. Now I am hungry for my pips. I will add again to my position on a break below 0.8600. The range is 0.8600 support to 0.8780 resistance.\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.0897.</strong> The crazy \"loonie\", I got stopped out on Thursday for a 221-pip loss and then the next day we got a rally on really poor employment data. I did not see that coming. We have a “tweezer” candlestick pattern pretty much in play. The move with this pattern is to 1.1000. Support is at 1.0840.\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.8862</strong>. As the EUR/USD falls the inverse relationship with the USD/CHF is in play. One of my long term trades, still with it over a month now and patience is paying dividends. If we can get above 0.8950, I think we are going to head much, much higher. Support is really good at 0.8800<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/JPY: Closing Price 101.86. </strong>Very interesting, JPY crosses had a bad day on Friday last week, the EUR/JPY in particular. The USD/JPY held up very well and this is a pair as you now from TRADES ON MY RADAR SECTION that interests me along with the other JPY pairs. The range is 101.40 to 102.10.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>8. MAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:</strong>\r\n\r\nSUNDAY: CNY – HSBC Manufacturing PMi.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: EUR – German ZEW Economic Sentiment.\r\nTUESDAY: AUD – Annual Budget Release.\r\nTUESDAY: NZD - RBNZ Wheeler speaks.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: GBP – BOE Carney speaks &amp; BOE Inflation Report.\r\nWEDNESDAY: NZD – Annual Budget Release.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: USD – Core CPi.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>9. FINAL THOUGHTS:</strong>\r\n\r\nI am expecting more of the same over the coming week, the only difference, and, it could be a big difference is we may have direction following the ECB Press Conference last week. Additionally, there are moves now out of tight ranges and this should help with momentum.\r\n\r\nHowever, you still have to be ready for false breakouts and false breakdowns. There are so many inflection points close by in equities and bonds that the potential spikey moves could impact the Forex markets, despite it’s recent moves out of ranges coupled with the momentum directional moves of the EUR.\r\n\r\nTake care and good luck. Be careful with position sizes.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nSaturday May 10th 2014\r\n\r\nEMAIL / FOLLOW ME AT:\r\npremiumservice@weeklyfxdrivethru.com\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\nTwitter: @ThePremService\r\nGoogle+/scottpickering\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','THE ECB - ARE WE ON A PROMISE…MARKET REACTION SAYS YES?','','inherit','open','closed','','3653-revision-v1','','','2014-05-10 10:40:26','2014-05-10 15:40:26','',3653,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/3653-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(3660,1,'2014-05-10 10:49:56','2014-05-10 15:49:56','<section class=\"pdf-links\">\r\n<div class=\"one-third first\"></div>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/TRADING-WITH-ATRs.pdf\">TRADING WITH ATR\'s</a>\r\n<div class=\"one-third\"></div>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/HEDGING.pdf\">HEDGING</a>\r\n<div class=\"one-third\"></div>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/CREATING-A-TRADING-PLAN-3.0.pdf\">CREATING A TRADING PLAN</a>\r\n<div class=\"one-third\"></div>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/FOLLOWING-YOUR-TRADING-PLAN-.pdf\">FOLLOWING YOUR TRADING PLAN</a>\r\n<div class=\"one-third\"></div>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/PLANNING-YOUR-TRADES-2.0.pdf\">PLANNING YOUR TRADES (2.0)</a>\r\n<div class=\"one-third\"></div>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/MANAGING-RISK.pdf\">MANAGING RISK</a>\r\n<div class=\"one-third\"></div>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/STOP-PLACEMENT.pdf\">STOP PLACEMENT</a>\r\n<div class=\"one-third\"></div>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/MAXIMISING-PROFIT-POTENTIAL-BY-PROPERLY-SIZING-POSITIONS.pdf\">MAXIMISING PROFIT POTENTIAL BY PROPERLY SIZING POSITIONS</a>\r\n<div class=\"one-third\"></div>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/TRADING-AROUND-THE-NEWS.pdf\">TRADING AROUND THE NEWS</a>\r\n<div class=\"one-third\"></div>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/HANDLING-NEWS-WITH-AN-OPEN-POSITION.pdf\">HANDLING NEWS WITH AN OPEN POSITION</a>\r\n<div class=\"one-third\"></div>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/LIVE-ACCOUNT-vs-DEMO-ACCOUNT.pdf\">LIVE ACCOUNT vs DEMO ACCOUNT</a>\r\n<div class=\"one-half first\"></div>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/TRADING-WITH-A-FLEXIBLE-MINDSET.pdf\">TRADING WITH A FLEXIBLE MINDSET</a>\r\n<div class=\"one-half first\"></div>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/PROBABILITIES-IN-TRADING.pdf\">PROBABILITIES IN TRADING</a>\r\n<div class=\"one-half first\"></div>\r\n<div class=\"one-half first\"></div>\r\n<div class=\"one-half first\">These resources are in PDF format that will allow for easy printing</div>\r\n<div class=\"one-third\"></div>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<div class=\"one-third\"></div>\r\n<div class=\"one-third\"></div>\r\n<div class=\"one-third\"></div>\r\n<div class=\"one-third\"></div>\r\n<div class=\"one-half first\"></div>\r\n<div class=\"one-half first\"></div>\r\n<div class=\"one-half first\"></div>\r\n</section>','Trading Essentials','','inherit','open','closed','','2538-revision-v1','','','2014-05-10 10:49:56','2014-05-10 15:49:56','',2538,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/2538-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(3661,1,'2014-05-10 11:07:40','2014-05-10 16:07:40','<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>1. INTRODUCTION:</strong>\r\n\r\nThe roller coaster ride in trading the Forex market continues. Until Draghi uttered the words “The Governing council of the ECB is comfortable with acting in June” coupled with “The Euro exchange rate is a serious concern” the USD was being taken to the cleaners and on the way there was being given a severe whipping. The USD index looked as it if was about to cave in. Just 24 hours later the EUR/USD was trading 200 pips lower and the GBP/USD 150 pips lower; an amazing turnaround.\r\n\r\nDuring the past 5 days we also saw a huge number of major news releases from Australia. My overall observation at the end of the week is that both RBA Stevens and RBNZ Wheeler, could be using pretty much the same scriptwriter with regards to their comments on their currencies. The only difference being that Wheeler has threatened direct intervention to bring the value of the NZD lower. Stevens once again re-iterated last Tuesday that the AUD was too high. He is partially to blame for this jump higher in the AUD/USD. Two months ago he really talked it down by stating 0.8000 – 0.8500 was a more appropriate level. He did not keep banging the drum he took his eye off the ball and the AUD/USD rose towards 0.9470 in the recent caning given to the USD. Had he been consistent the AUD/USD exchange rate would be sub 0.9000.\r\n\r\nNow we have the situation where, the ECB, RBA and RBNZ are talking dirty on currency exchange rates. As I have said many times talk is cheap. Draghi at the ECB looks like he is going to act next month, Wheeler at the RBNZ may directly intervene, where does that leave the RBA and Governor Stevens?\r\n\r\nFriday saw a disastrous set of job figures for Canada, the market was expecting +12,800 for April, instead, Canada lost 28,900. For a smaller populated country like Canada this was an awful result. There will be calls for stimulus in Canada if the next few sets of key economic data releases are poor. Personally, I think the BOC should react and cut rates. Let’s NOT pontificate like other central banks, let’s be decisive and pro-active and do something. Time will tell.\r\n\r\nFinally, I wanted to share something with you regarding the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\nAbout a couple of months ago, I launched a 4-week low cost $20.00 trial. Previously at the launch of the PREMIUM SERVICE I had resisted doing this, as what is happening now is what I thought could happen when why my gut feeling was not to offer this option. At renewal, I advise subscribers that the on-going option is from 10 to 40 weeks, ranging from $150 - $400 dependent upon the subscription period. About 50% renew 50% do not, I ask the “do not’s” why?\r\n\r\nI am concerned: as I ask, not interrogate, I am told it’s NOT the costs involved, although one or two have said this, but the main reason is it\'s the fact I am not doing enough trades per day. Surely, trades per day is relative to the market conditions…the opportunities…the risks.\r\n\r\nForex trading is not gambling. Forex trading is RISK ASSESSMENT, you require total 100% DISCIPLINE to survive. I know from various social network media that many people see Forex trading as an easy fast killing to make thousands of $$$$. Oh my God, I am stunned by some of the responses I am getting.\r\n\r\nPlease, please….you should only trade if you see trades that meet your plan and guidelines. I have been a Forex trader for 7 years and I want to remain a Forex trader for at least another 7 years, longer if possible. Additionally, if you see Forex as quick way to deliver $$$, please do not subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\nI have zero intention of blowing my accounts out in a dysfunctional marketplace. I am a Conservative/cautious “Steady Eddie” trader. My existing subscribers will admit to seeing me write on twitter that I screwed up an entry every now and then, I am human. I have losses, some because I get over stubborn on trades. The most recent example being the USD/CAD long, I took a hit of over 200 pips last Thursday. I should have exited a long time ago. I was in that trade for 38 days. I am NOT perfect; my wife will confirm this fact. I have learned the hard way how to apply DISCIPLINE to trading. If you want a fast cash gain you might as well gamble and go to Las Vegas and play a few tables.\r\n\r\nAs my father once said, “Gambling is a mugs game”. I had gamblers in my subscriber base; God only knows what size positions they were trading.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>The keys to Forex trading longevity in my opinion are: -</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong> DISCIPLINE (understand the power of Leverage)</strong>\r\n<strong> RISK AND EFFECTIVE MONEY MANAGEMENT PLAN YOUR TRADES </strong>\r\n<strong> TRADE YOUR TRADING PLAN RULES and GUIDELINES.</strong></p>\r\nEvery trader surely has a goal to make money from trading, but one has to be RESILIENT and DISCIPLINED.\r\n\r\nI apologize, if you think my thoughts are overkill. But, unless you try to RISK MANAGE you may as well burn your cash on the fire in my opinion.\r\n\r\nFor more information about the PREMIUM SERVICE check out the welcome page of <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> situated on the top of the page there are a number of drop down menus that contain all the things required to join.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>2. THE VIEW FROM MY TRADING DESK:</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>THE ECB - ARE WE ON A PROMISE…MARKET REACTION SAYS YES?</strong></p>\r\nAnother ECB press Conference goes by and despite many calls for action from within the Eurozone for the ECB to act on DEFLATION and the high EUR exchange rate that is in effect across almost all currencies, nothing was done.\r\n\r\nHowever, Draghi admitted that the ECB Governing Body has discussed the matters and the ECB now has a green to go if it wants to, by the next meeting in June 2014.\r\n\r\nThe market reaction was immediate. The EUR/USD sell off started. In 24 hours we had a 200-pip fall. If you remember, the last time Draghi acted was to cut rates by 0.25% and we saw a huge 200-pip fall followed by, at the end of the day a much larger bounce. This time it’s different, well at least the market believes this time, that Draghi means business.\r\n\r\nDraghi has backed himself into a corner. A few weeks ago I wrote about the DEFLATION issues in the Eurozone. It looks like inflation forecasts will be wound back lower next month, given the fact that The European Commission has recently revised expectations downward. So if Draghi does NOT act in June, then\r\n\r\nMr. “Whatever it takes” Draghi will lose all credibility.\r\n\r\nWhat will he / can he do?\r\n\r\nWell, he has really upped the ante this time:\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong><em>Governing body comfortable to act in June</em></strong>\r\n<strong><em> The Euro exchange rate is a serious concern</em></strong></p>\r\nThe issue / problem as I see it, is that no matter what the ECB decides to do, and there a few options, none of them are in the same league as the BOJ QE programmes of Quantitative easing and Qualitative easing, that was able at the launch to move the YEN by about 35% in a few weeks.\r\n\r\nThe structure of the ECB, albeit, allegedly independent of political influence…(and if you believe that you would also believe that I am running for President!), simply does not allow them game changing, large-scale measures like the FED or the BOJ.\r\n\r\nThe list of options hasn’t really changed from what I have written previously: -\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>LTRO - (Longer Term Refinancing Options). </strong>\r\n<strong> Lowering its Refinancing rate to zero.</strong>\r\n<strong> Negative overnight ECB Deposit Rates.</strong>\r\n<strong> QE (Quantitative Easing).</strong></p>\r\nI think that whatever is decided it has to show strength of commitment from the ECB otherwise if it is a “wishy-washy” attempt to ease, it will be responded to that way and the EUR/USD, in particular, could once again strengthen.\r\n\r\nThere are 4 weeks between now and the next meeting for all the debates on the options open to Draghi and his peers to take hold. Let the merriment begin.\r\n\r\nFrom a trading perspective, we have seen pretty much a universal EUR fall across all cross-rates as well as the EUR/USD.\r\n\r\nWhere do I see the EUR pairs falling to? This is dependent on the reaction with the EUR/USD, but do not rule out the EUR/JPY. The Eurozone trades heavily with Japan and to some extent the EUR/JPY cross-rate could pull the EUR/USD. Do not rule this out.\r\n\r\nI include a monthly chart of the EUR/USD below. I think that 1.3436 (76.4% Fibonacci level) (1.3450), is probably where my thoughts are at the moment as a possible short target.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/EURUSD-MONTHLY-10052014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-3641\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/EURUSD-MONTHLY-10052014-1024x424.png\" alt=\"EURUSD MONTHLY 10052014\" width=\"1024\" height=\"424\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nPossible lows on the crosses if the EUR/USD targets the 1.3450 area are: -\r\n\r\nEUR/JPY: 132.00 (The 50% Fibonacci retracement of last big move)\r\n\r\nEUR/CAD: 1.4400 (If the CAD rallies back towards 1.1200, this may not happen)\r\n\r\nEUR/AUD: 1.4000 (If the AUD breaks lower, this may not be achieved)\r\n\r\nEUR/NZD: 1.5000 (If the NZD breaks lower, this may not be reached)\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nReferring to the prices above, a great deal depends on how the cross-rates react. The Commodity crosses may hold up the EUR/USD fall if the commodity currencies also weaken in line with USD strength. But the levels above are very much in the target zone in my opinion.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>3. LOOKING FORWARD…THE KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3757.</strong> Following the ECB Press Conference the EUR/USD has slid about 250 pips from almost touching 1.4000. Now the question is how far will it fall ahead of the next ECB Press Conference in June. My medium term target from my short EUR/USD trades of late has been 1.3450. Right now, I see no reason to change that goal. However, in the short-term, I am expecting some consolidation next week and I think we may have a little range bound activity to work off the oversold conditions that you can see on the charts. I am thinking that for this coming week the range will be around 1.3700 to 1.3840. I could be wrong, but this is what I think as of now.\r\n\r\n<strong>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.6847</strong>. This pair almost got to 1.7000, and then it fell from grace like the EUR/USD. It too has pulled back about 250 pips off its highs. Over the coming week I see 1.6750 to 1.6920 as the range to break out of. Ultimately, if the EUR/USD falls so will the GBP and I expect us back around 1.6500.\r\n\r\n<strong>AUD/USD: Closing Price 0.9360</strong>. This pair is not reacting the way that I thought it would. I am staying away for a little while until it makes its mind up if it is moving lower or going to attack 0.9500. The RBA needs to get stuck in with the AUD and be firmer on what it sees as the target. The AUD/NZD is affecting this pair, the cross-rate has come alive with the demise of the NZD/USD and this has a great deal to do with the current elevated price of the AUD/USD, probably to the annoyance of Governor Stevens. The range is 0.9300 to 0.9450.\r\n\r\n<strong>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8609</strong>. The big number that I was working with last Friday (9<sup>th</sup> May 2014) was 0.8615 as support…look where it closed the week. I am short this pair and intend to remain short for sometime to come; I struggled with much higher levels and was patient. Now I am hungry for my pips. I will add again to my position on a break below 0.8600. The range is 0.8600 support to 0.8780 resistance.\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.0897.</strong> The crazy \"loonie\", I got stopped out on Thursday for a 221-pip loss and then the next day we got a rally on really poor employment data. I did not see that coming. We have a “tweezer” candlestick pattern pretty much in play. The move with this pattern is to 1.1000. Support is at 1.0840.\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.8862</strong>. As the EUR/USD falls the inverse relationship with the USD/CHF is in play. One of my long term trades, still with it over a month now and patience is paying dividends. If we can get above 0.8950, I think we are going to head much, much higher. Support is really good at 0.8800.\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/JPY: Closing Price 101.86. </strong>Very interesting, JPY crosses had a bad day on Friday last week, the EUR/JPY in particular. The USD/JPY held up very well and this is a pair as you now from TRADES ON MY RADAR SECTION that interests me along with the other JPY pairs. The range is 101.40 to 102.10.<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>4. MAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:</strong>\r\n\r\nSUNDAY: CNY – HSBC Manufacturing PMi.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: EUR – German ZEW Economic Sentiment.\r\nTUESDAY: AUD – Annual Budget Release.\r\nTUESDAY: NZD - RBNZ Wheeler speaks.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: GBP – BOE Carney speaks &amp; BOE Inflation Report.\r\nWEDNESDAY: NZD – Annual Budget Release.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: USD – Core CPi.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>5. FINAL THOUGHTS:</strong>\r\n\r\nI am expecting more of the same over the coming week, the only difference, and, it could be a big difference is we may have direction following the ECB Press Conference last week. Additionally, there are moves now out of tight ranges and this should help with momentum.\r\n\r\nHowever, you still have to be ready for false breakouts and false breakdowns. There are so many inflection points close by in equities and bonds that the potential spikey moves could impact the Forex markets, despite it’s recent moves out of ranges coupled with the momentum directional moves of the EUR.\r\n\r\nTake care and good luck. Be careful with position sizes.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nSaturday May 10th 2014\r\n\r\nEMAIL / FOLLOW ME AT:\r\ndrivethru@weeklyfxdrivethru.com\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\nGoogle+/scottpickering','THE ECB - ARE WE ON A PROMISE…MARKET REACTION SAYS YES?','','publish','open','closed','','ecb-promisemarket-reaction-says-yes','','','2014-05-10 11:19:12','2014-05-10 16:19:12','',0,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?p=3661',0,'post','',0),(3662,1,'2014-05-10 11:06:24','2014-05-10 16:06:24','<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>1. INTRODUCTION:</strong>\r\n\r\nThe roller coaster ride in trading the Forex market continues. Until Draghi uttered the words “The Governing council of the ECB is comfortable with acting in June” coupled with “The Euro exchange rate is a serious concern” the USD was being taken to the cleaners and on the way there was being given a severe whipping. The USD index looked as it if was about to cave in. Just 24 hours later the EUR/USD was trading 200 pips lower and the GBP/USD 150 pips lower; an amazing turnaround.\r\n\r\nDuring the past 5 days we also saw a huge number of major news releases from Australia. My overall observation at the end of the week is that both RBA Stevens and RBNZ Wheeler, could be using pretty much the same scriptwriters with regards to their comments on their currencies. The only difference being that Wheeler has threatened direct intervention to bring the value of the NZD lower. Stevens once again re-iterated last Tuesday that the AUD was too high. He is partially to blame for this jump higher in the AUD/USD. Two months ago he really talked it down by stating 0.8000 – 0.8500 was a more appropriate level. He did not keep banging the drum he took his eye off the ball and the AUD/USD rose towards 0.9470 in the recent caning given to the USD. Had he been consistent the AUD/USD exchange rate would be sub 0.9000.\r\n\r\nNow we have the situation where, the ECB, RBA and RBNZ are talking dirty on currency exchange rates. As I have said many times talk is cheap. Draghi at the ECB looks like he is going to act next month, Wheeler at the RBNZ may directly intervene, where does that leave the RBA and Governor Stevens?\r\n\r\nFriday saw a disastrous set of job figures for Canada, the market was expecting +12,800 for April, instead, Canada lost 28,900. For a smaller populated country like Canada this was an awful result. There will be calls for stimulus in Canada if the next few sets of key economic data releases are poor. Personally, I think the BOC should react and cut rates. Let’s NOT pontificate like other central banks, let’s be decisive and pro-active and do something. Time will tell.\r\n\r\nFinally, I wanted to share something with you regarding the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\nAbout a couple of months ago, I launched a 4-week low cost $20.00 trial. Previously at the launch of the PREMIUM SERVICE I had resisted doing this, as what is happening now is what I thought could happen when why my gut feeling was not to offer this option. At renewal, I advise subscribers that the on-going option is from 10 to 40 weeks, ranging from $150 - $400 dependent upon the subscription period. About 50% renew 50% do not, I ask the “do not’s” why?\r\n\r\nI am concerned: as I ask, not interrogate, I am told it’s NOT the costs involved, although one or two have said this, but the main reason is it\'s the fact I am not doing enough trades per day. Surely, trades per day is relative to the market conditions…the opportunities…the risks.\r\n\r\nForex trading is not gambling. Forex trading is RISK ASSESSEMENT, you require total 100% DISCIPLINE to survive. I know from various social network media that many people see Forex trading as an easy fast killing to make thousands of $$$$. Oh my God, I am stunned by some of the responses I am getting.\r\n\r\nPlease, please….you should only trade if you see trades that meet your plan and guidelines. I have been a Forex trader for 7 years and I want to remain a Forex trader for at least another 7 years, longer if possible. Additionally, if you see Forex as quick way to deliver $$$, please do not subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\nI have zero intention of blowing my accounts out in a dysfunctional marketplace. I am a Conservative/cautious “Steady Eddie” trader. My existing subscribers will admit to seeing me write on twitter that I screwed up an entry every now and then, I am human. I have losses, some because I get over stubborn on trades. The most recent example being the USD/CAD long, I took a hit of over 200 pips last Thursday. I should have exited a long time ago. I was in that trade for 38 days. I am NOT perfect; my wife will confirm this fact. I have learned the hard way how to apply DISCIPLINE to trading. If you want a fast cash gain you might as well gamble and go to Las Vegas and play a few tables.\r\n\r\nAs my father once said, “Gambling is a mugs game”. I had gamblers in my subscriber base; God only knows what size positions they were trading.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>The keys to Forex trading longevity in my opinion are: -</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> DISCIPLINE (understand the power of Leverage)</strong>\r\n<strong> RISK AND EFFECTIVE MONEY MANAGEMENT PLAN YOUR TRADES </strong>\r\n<strong> TRADE YOUR TRADING PLAN RULES and GUIDELINES.</strong></p>\r\nEvery trader surely has a goal to make money from trading, but one has to be RESILIENT and DISCIPLINED.\r\n\r\nI apologize, if you think my thoughts are overkill. But, unless you try to RISK MANAGE you may as well burn your cash on the fire in my opinion.\r\n\r\nFor more information about the PREMIUM SERVICE check out the welcome page of <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> situated on the top of the page there are a number of drop down menus that contain all the things required to join.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>2. THE VIEW FROM MY TRADING DESK:</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>THE ECB - ARE WE ON A PROMISE…MARKET REACTION SAYS YES?</strong></p>\r\nAnother ECB press Conference goes by and despite many calls for action from within the Eurozone for the ECB to act on DEFLATION and the high EUR exchange rate that is in effect across almost all currencies, nothing was done.\r\n\r\nHowever, Draghi admitted that the ECB Governing Body has discussed the matters and the ECB now has a green to go if it wants to, by the next meeting in June 2014.\r\n\r\nThe market reaction was immediate. The EUR/USD sell off started. In 24 hours we had a 200-pip fall. If you remember, the last time Draghi acted was to cut rates by 0.25% and we saw a huge 200-pip fall followed by, at the end of the day a much larger bounce. This time it’s different, well at least the market believes this time, that Draghi means business.\r\n\r\nDraghi has backed himself into a corner. A few weeks ago I wrote about the DEFLATION issues in the Eurozone. It looks like inflation forecasts will be wound back lower next month, given the fact that The European Commission has recently revised expectations downward. So if Draghi does NOT act in June, then\r\n\r\nMr. “Whatever it takes” Draghi will lose all credibility.\r\n\r\nWhat will he / can he do?\r\n\r\nWell, he has really upped the ante this time:\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong><em>Governing body comfortable to act in June</em></strong>\r\n<strong><em> The Euro exchange rate is a serious concern</em></strong></p>\r\nThe issue / problem as I see it, is that no matter what the ECB decides to do, and there a few options, none of them are in the same league as the BOJ QE programmes of Quantitative easing and Qualitative easing, that was able at the launch to move the YEN by about 35% in a few weeks.\r\n\r\nThe structure of the ECB, albeit, allegedly independent of political influence…(and if you believe that you would also believe that I am running for President!), simply does not allow them game changing, large-scale measures like the FED or the BOJ.\r\n\r\nThe list of options hasn’t really changed from what I have written previously: -\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>LTRO - (Longer Term Refinancing Options). </strong>\r\n<strong> Lowering its Refinancing rate to zero.</strong>\r\n<strong> Negative overnight ECB Deposit Rates.</strong>\r\n<strong> QE (Quantitative Easing).</strong>\r\n</p>\r\nI think that whatever is decided it has to show strength of commitment from the ECB otherwise if it is a “wishy-washy” attempt to ease, it will be responded to that way and the EUR/USD, in particular, could once again strengthen.\r\n\r\nThere are 4 weeks between now and the next meeting for all the debates on the options open to Draghi and his peers to take hold. Let the merriment begin.\r\n\r\nFrom a trading perspective, we have seen pretty much a universal EUR fall across all cross-rates as well as the EUR/USD.\r\n\r\nWhere do I see the EUR pairs falling to? This is dependent on the reaction with the EUR/USD, but do not rule out the EUR/JPY. The Eurozone trades heavily with Japan and to some extent the EUR/JPY cross-rate could pull the EUR/USD. Do not rule this out.\r\n\r\nI include a monthly chart of the EUR/USD below. I think that 1.3436 (76.4% Fibonacci level) (1.3450), is probably where my thoughts are at the moment as a possible short target.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/EURUSD-MONTHLY-10052014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-3641\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/EURUSD-MONTHLY-10052014-1024x424.png\" alt=\"EURUSD MONTHLY 10052014\" width=\"1024\" height=\"424\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nPossible lows on the crosses if the EUR/USD targets the 1.3450 area are: -\r\n\r\nEUR/JPY: 132.00 (The 50% Fibonacci retracement of last big move)\r\n\r\nEUR/CAD: 1.4400 (If the CAD rallies back towards 1.1200, this may not happen)\r\n\r\nEUR/AUD: 1.4000 (If the AUD breaks lower, this may not be achieved)\r\n\r\nEUR/NZD: 1.5000 (If the NZD breaks lower, this may not be reached)\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nReferring to the prices above, a great deal depends on how the cross-rates react. The Commodity crosses may hold up the EUR/USD fall if the commodity currencies also weaken in line with USD strength. But the levels above are very much in the target zone in my opinion.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>3. LOOKING FORWARD…THE KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3757.</strong> Following the ECB Press Conference the EUR/USD has slid about 250 pips from almost touching 1.4000. Now the question is how far will it fall ahead of the next ECB Press Conference in June. My medium term target from my short EUR/USD trades of late has been 1.3450. Right now, I see no reason to change that goal. However, in the short-term, I am expecting some consolidation next week and I think we may have a little range bound activity to work off the oversold conditions that you can see on the charts. I am thinking that for this coming week the range will be around 1.3700 to 1.3840. I could be wrong, but this is what I think as of now.\r\n\r\n<strong>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.6847</strong>. This pair almost got to 1.7000, and then it fell from grace like the EUR/USD. It too has pulled back about 250 pips off its highs. Over the coming week I see 1.6750 to 1.6920 as the range to break out of. Ultimately, if the EUR/USD falls so will the GBP and I expect us back around 1.6500.\r\n\r\n<strong>AUD/USD: Closing Price 0.9360</strong>. This pair is not reacting the way that I thought it would. I am staying away for a little while until it makes its mind up if it is moving lower or going to attack 0.9500. The RBA needs to get stuck in with the AUD and be firmer on what it sees as the target. The AUD/NZD is affecting this pair, the cross-rate has come alive with the demise of the NZD/USD and this has a great deal to do with the current elevated price of the AUD/USD, probably to the annoyance of Governor Stevens. The range is 0.9300 to 0.9450.\r\n\r\n<strong>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8609</strong>. The big number that I was working with last Friday (9<sup>th</sup> May 2014) was 0.8615 as support…look where it closed the week. I am short this pair and intend to remain short for sometime to come; I struggled with much higher levels and was patient. Now I am hungry for my pips. I will add again to my position on a break below 0.8600. The range is 0.8600 support to 0.8780 resistance.\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.0897.</strong> The crazy loonie, I got stopped out on Thursday for a 221-pip loss and then the next day we got a rally on really poor employment data. I did not see that coming. We have a “tweezer” candlestick pattern pretty much in play. The move with this pattern is to 1.1000. Support is at 1.0840.\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.8862</strong>. As the EUR/USD falls the inverse relationship with the USD/CHF is in play. One of my long term trades, still with it over a month now and patience is paying dividends. If we can get above 0.8950, I think we are going to head much, much higher. Support is really good at 0.8800.\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/JPY: Closing Price 101.86. </strong>Very interesting, JPY crosses had a bad day on Friday last week, the EUR/JPY in particular. The USD/JPY held up very well and this is a pair as you now from TRADES ON MY RADAR SECTION that interests me along with the other JPY pairs. The range is 101.40 to 102.10.<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>4. MAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:</strong>\r\n\r\nSUNDAY: CNY – HSBC Manufacturing PMi.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: EUR – German ZEW Economic Sentiment.\r\nTUESDAY: AUD – Annual Budget Release.\r\nTUESDAY: NZD - RBNZ Wheeler speaks.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: GBP – BOE Carney speaks &amp; BOE Inflation Report.\r\nWEDNESDAY: NZD – Annual Budget Release.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: USD – Core CPi.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>5. FINAL THOUGHTS:</strong>\r\n\r\nI am expecting more of the same over the coming week, the only difference, and, it could be a big difference is we may have direction following the ECB Press Conference last week. Additionally, there are moves now out of tight ranges and this should help with momentum.\r\n\r\nHowever, you still have to be ready for false breakouts and false breakdowns. There are so many inflection points close by in equities and bonds that the potential spikey moves could impact the Forex markets, despite it’s recent moves out of ranges coupled with the momentum directional moves of the EUR.\r\n\r\nTake care and good luck. Be careful with position sizes.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nSaturday May 10th 2014\r\n\r\nEMAIL / FOLLOW ME AT:\r\ndrivethru@weeklyfxdrivethru.com\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\nGoogle+/scottpickering','THE ECB - ARE WE ON A PROMISE…MARKET REACTION SAYS YES?','','inherit','open','closed','','3661-revision-v1','','','2014-05-10 11:06:24','2014-05-10 16:06:24','',3661,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/3661-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(3663,1,'2014-05-10 11:07:40','2014-05-10 16:07:40','<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>1. INTRODUCTION:</strong>\r\n\r\nThe roller coaster ride in trading the Forex market continues. Until Draghi uttered the words “The Governing council of the ECB is comfortable with acting in June” coupled with “The Euro exchange rate is a serious concern” the USD was being taken to the cleaners and on the way there was being given a severe whipping. The USD index looked as it if was about to cave in. Just 24 hours later the EUR/USD was trading 200 pips lower and the GBP/USD 150 pips lower; an amazing turnaround.\r\n\r\nDuring the past 5 days we also saw a huge number of major news releases from Australia. My overall observation at the end of the week is that both RBA Stevens and RBNZ Wheeler, could be using pretty much the same scriptwriter with regards to their comments on their currencies. The only difference being that Wheeler has threatened direct intervention to bring the value of the NZD lower. Stevens once again re-iterated last Tuesday that the AUD was too high. He is partially to blame for this jump higher in the AUD/USD. Two months ago he really talked it down by stating 0.8000 – 0.8500 was a more appropriate level. He did not keep banging the drum he took his eye off the ball and the AUD/USD rose towards 0.9470 in the recent caning given to the USD. Had he been consistent the AUD/USD exchange rate would be sub 0.9000.\r\n\r\nNow we have the situation where, the ECB, RBA and RBNZ are talking dirty on currency exchange rates. As I have said many times talk is cheap. Draghi at the ECB looks like he is going to act next month, Wheeler at the RBNZ may directly intervene, where does that leave the RBA and Governor Stevens?\r\n\r\nFriday saw a disastrous set of job figures for Canada, the market was expecting +12,800 for April, instead, Canada lost 28,900. For a smaller populated country like Canada this was an awful result. There will be calls for stimulus in Canada if the next few sets of key economic data releases are poor. Personally, I think the BOC should react and cut rates. Let’s NOT pontificate like other central banks, let’s be decisive and pro-active and do something. Time will tell.\r\n\r\nFinally, I wanted to share something with you regarding the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\nAbout a couple of months ago, I launched a 4-week low cost $20.00 trial. Previously at the launch of the PREMIUM SERVICE I had resisted doing this, as what is happening now is what I thought could happen when why my gut feeling was not to offer this option. At renewal, I advise subscribers that the on-going option is from 10 to 40 weeks, ranging from $150 - $400 dependent upon the subscription period. About 50% renew 50% do not, I ask the “do not’s” why?\r\n\r\nI am concerned: as I ask, not interrogate, I am told it’s NOT the costs involved, although one or two have said this, but the main reason is it\'s the fact I am not doing enough trades per day. Surely, trades per day is relative to the market conditions…the opportunities…the risks.\r\n\r\nForex trading is not gambling. Forex trading is RISK ASSESSMENT, you require total 100% DISCIPLINE to survive. I know from various social network media that many people see Forex trading as an easy fast killing to make thousands of $$$$. Oh my God, I am stunned by some of the responses I am getting.\r\n\r\nPlease, please….you should only trade if you see trades that meet your plan and guidelines. I have been a Forex trader for 7 years and I want to remain a Forex trader for at least another 7 years, longer if possible. Additionally, if you see Forex as quick way to deliver $$$, please do not subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\nI have zero intention of blowing my accounts out in a dysfunctional marketplace. I am a Conservative/cautious “Steady Eddie” trader. My existing subscribers will admit to seeing me write on twitter that I screwed up an entry every now and then, I am human. I have losses, some because I get over stubborn on trades. The most recent example being the USD/CAD long, I took a hit of over 200 pips last Thursday. I should have exited a long time ago. I was in that trade for 38 days. I am NOT perfect; my wife will confirm this fact. I have learned the hard way how to apply DISCIPLINE to trading. If you want a fast cash gain you might as well gamble and go to Las Vegas and play a few tables.\r\n\r\nAs my father once said, “Gambling is a mugs game”. I had gamblers in my subscriber base; God only knows what size positions they were trading.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>The keys to Forex trading longevity in my opinion are: -</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong> DISCIPLINE (understand the power of Leverage)</strong>\r\n<strong> RISK AND EFFECTIVE MONEY MANAGEMENT PLAN YOUR TRADES </strong>\r\n<strong> TRADE YOUR TRADING PLAN RULES and GUIDELINES.</strong></p>\r\nEvery trader surely has a goal to make money from trading, but one has to be RESILIENT and DISCIPLINED.\r\n\r\nI apologize, if you think my thoughts are overkill. But, unless you try to RISK MANAGE you may as well burn your cash on the fire in my opinion.\r\n\r\nFor more information about the PREMIUM SERVICE check out the welcome page of <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> situated on the top of the page there are a number of drop down menus that contain all the things required to join.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>2. THE VIEW FROM MY TRADING DESK:</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>THE ECB - ARE WE ON A PROMISE…MARKET REACTION SAYS YES?</strong></p>\r\nAnother ECB press Conference goes by and despite many calls for action from within the Eurozone for the ECB to act on DEFLATION and the high EUR exchange rate that is in effect across almost all currencies, nothing was done.\r\n\r\nHowever, Draghi admitted that the ECB Governing Body has discussed the matters and the ECB now has a green to go if it wants to, by the next meeting in June 2014.\r\n\r\nThe market reaction was immediate. The EUR/USD sell off started. In 24 hours we had a 200-pip fall. If you remember, the last time Draghi acted was to cut rates by 0.25% and we saw a huge 200-pip fall followed by, at the end of the day a much larger bounce. This time it’s different, well at least the market believes this time, that Draghi means business.\r\n\r\nDraghi has backed himself into a corner. A few weeks ago I wrote about the DEFLATION issues in the Eurozone. It looks like inflation forecasts will be wound back lower next month, given the fact that The European Commission has recently revised expectations downward. So if Draghi does NOT act in June, then\r\n\r\nMr. “Whatever it takes” Draghi will lose all credibility.\r\n\r\nWhat will he / can he do?\r\n\r\nWell, he has really upped the ante this time:\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong><em>Governing body comfortable to act in June</em></strong>\r\n<strong><em> The Euro exchange rate is a serious concern</em></strong></p>\r\nThe issue / problem as I see it, is that no matter what the ECB decides to do, and there a few options, none of them are in the same league as the BOJ QE programmes of Quantitative easing and Qualitative easing, that was able at the launch to move the YEN by about 35% in a few weeks.\r\n\r\nThe structure of the ECB, albeit, allegedly independent of political influence…(and if you believe that you would also believe that I am running for President!), simply does not allow them game changing, large-scale measures like the FED or the BOJ.\r\n\r\nThe list of options hasn’t really changed from what I have written previously: -\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>LTRO - (Longer Term Refinancing Options). </strong>\r\n<strong> Lowering its Refinancing rate to zero.</strong>\r\n<strong> Negative overnight ECB Deposit Rates.</strong>\r\n<strong> QE (Quantitative Easing).</strong></p>\r\nI think that whatever is decided it has to show strength of commitment from the ECB otherwise if it is a “wishy-washy” attempt to ease, it will be responded to that way and the EUR/USD, in particular, could once again strengthen.\r\n\r\nThere are 4 weeks between now and the next meeting for all the debates on the options open to Draghi and his peers to take hold. Let the merriment begin.\r\n\r\nFrom a trading perspective, we have seen pretty much a universal EUR fall across all cross-rates as well as the EUR/USD.\r\n\r\nWhere do I see the EUR pairs falling to? This is dependent on the reaction with the EUR/USD, but do not rule out the EUR/JPY. The Eurozone trades heavily with Japan and to some extent the EUR/JPY cross-rate could pull the EUR/USD. Do not rule this out.\r\n\r\nI include a monthly chart of the EUR/USD below. I think that 1.3436 (76.4% Fibonacci level) (1.3450), is probably where my thoughts are at the moment as a possible short target.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/EURUSD-MONTHLY-10052014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-3641\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/EURUSD-MONTHLY-10052014-1024x424.png\" alt=\"EURUSD MONTHLY 10052014\" width=\"1024\" height=\"424\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nPossible lows on the crosses if the EUR/USD targets the 1.3450 area are: -\r\n\r\nEUR/JPY: 132.00 (The 50% Fibonacci retracement of last big move)\r\n\r\nEUR/CAD: 1.4400 (If the CAD rallies back towards 1.1200, this may not happen)\r\n\r\nEUR/AUD: 1.4000 (If the AUD breaks lower, this may not be achieved)\r\n\r\nEUR/NZD: 1.5000 (If the NZD breaks lower, this may not be reached)\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nReferring to the prices above, a great deal depends on how the cross-rates react. The Commodity crosses may hold up the EUR/USD fall if the commodity currencies also weaken in line with USD strength. But the levels above are very much in the target zone in my opinion.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>3. LOOKING FORWARD…THE KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3757.</strong> Following the ECB Press Conference the EUR/USD has slid about 250 pips from almost touching 1.4000. Now the question is how far will it fall ahead of the next ECB Press Conference in June. My medium term target from my short EUR/USD trades of late has been 1.3450. Right now, I see no reason to change that goal. However, in the short-term, I am expecting some consolidation next week and I think we may have a little range bound activity to work off the oversold conditions that you can see on the charts. I am thinking that for this coming week the range will be around 1.3700 to 1.3840. I could be wrong, but this is what I think as of now.\r\n\r\n<strong>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.6847</strong>. This pair almost got to 1.7000, and then it fell from grace like the EUR/USD. It too has pulled back about 250 pips off its highs. Over the coming week I see 1.6750 to 1.6920 as the range to break out of. Ultimately, if the EUR/USD falls so will the GBP and I expect us back around 1.6500.\r\n\r\n<strong>AUD/USD: Closing Price 0.9360</strong>. This pair is not reacting the way that I thought it would. I am staying away for a little while until it makes its mind up if it is moving lower or going to attack 0.9500. The RBA needs to get stuck in with the AUD and be firmer on what it sees as the target. The AUD/NZD is affecting this pair, the cross-rate has come alive with the demise of the NZD/USD and this has a great deal to do with the current elevated price of the AUD/USD, probably to the annoyance of Governor Stevens. The range is 0.9300 to 0.9450.\r\n\r\n<strong>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8609</strong>. The big number that I was working with last Friday (9<sup>th</sup> May 2014) was 0.8615 as support…look where it closed the week. I am short this pair and intend to remain short for sometime to come; I struggled with much higher levels and was patient. Now I am hungry for my pips. I will add again to my position on a break below 0.8600. The range is 0.8600 support to 0.8780 resistance.\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.0897.</strong> The crazy \"loonie\", I got stopped out on Thursday for a 221-pip loss and then the next day we got a rally on really poor employment data. I did not see that coming. We have a “tweezer” candlestick pattern pretty much in play. The move with this pattern is to 1.1000. Support is at 1.0840.\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.8862</strong>. As the EUR/USD falls the inverse relationship with the USD/CHF is in play. One of my long term trades, still with it over a month now and patience is paying dividends. If we can get above 0.8950, I think we are going to head much, much higher. Support is really good at 0.8800.\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/JPY: Closing Price 101.86. </strong>Very interesting, JPY crosses had a bad day on Friday last week, the EUR/JPY in particular. The USD/JPY held up very well and this is a pair as you now from TRADES ON MY RADAR SECTION that interests me along with the other JPY pairs. The range is 101.40 to 102.10.<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>4. MAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:</strong>\r\n\r\nSUNDAY: CNY – HSBC Manufacturing PMi.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: EUR – German ZEW Economic Sentiment.\r\nTUESDAY: AUD – Annual Budget Release.\r\nTUESDAY: NZD - RBNZ Wheeler speaks.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: GBP – BOE Carney speaks &amp; BOE Inflation Report.\r\nWEDNESDAY: NZD – Annual Budget Release.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: USD – Core CPi.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>5. FINAL THOUGHTS:</strong>\r\n\r\nI am expecting more of the same over the coming week, the only difference, and, it could be a big difference is we may have direction following the ECB Press Conference last week. Additionally, there are moves now out of tight ranges and this should help with momentum.\r\n\r\nHowever, you still have to be ready for false breakouts and false breakdowns. There are so many inflection points close by in equities and bonds that the potential spikey moves could impact the Forex markets, despite it’s recent moves out of ranges coupled with the momentum directional moves of the EUR.\r\n\r\nTake care and good luck. Be careful with position sizes.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nSaturday May 10th 2014\r\n\r\nEMAIL / FOLLOW ME AT:\r\ndrivethru@weeklyfxdrivethru.com\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\nGoogle+/scottpickering','THE ECB - ARE WE ON A PROMISE…MARKET REACTION SAYS YES?','','inherit','open','closed','','3661-revision-v1','','','2014-05-10 11:07:40','2014-05-10 16:07:40','',3661,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/3661-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(3667,1,'2014-05-12 07:41:48','2014-05-12 12:41:48','Good day,\r\n\r\nI trust that you all had a great weekend.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>JPY PAIRS:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nFrom the weekends PREMIUM SERVICE blog, I was going to analyse the JPY pairs this morning. However, my observations are that until the USD/JPY breaks below 101.50, it is not really worth getting too excited. Equities/ Futures are trading to the long side which is keeping the JPY supported at the moment and the USD a little stagnated.\r\n\r\nHowever, here is the  macro view that I have: The EUR/JPY needs to break below 140.00, and, in fact , I would like to see a daily close below 140.00. This would confirm a greater downside move. The CHF/JPY also looks to be trading very heavy.\r\n\r\nMy  JPY trades would be EUR/JPY and CHF/JPY in addition to the USD/JPY. Should I get the urge to trade these or set up some limit orders I will advise you via twitter.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>EUR/USD:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nI read over the weekend that Goldman Sachs are targeting 1.3675 as their short limit. I see this pair moving a lot lower, but at 1.3675 there is a confluence of Fibonacci levels. This may produce a bounce to sell into to enjoy the next move lower hopefully to  1.3450 - 1.3500.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>GBP/CHF:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nRADAR TRADE SET UP: ( I HAVE PLACED THIS ORDER WITH MY BROKER)\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/GBPCHF-DAILY-12052014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-3665\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/GBPCHF-DAILY-12052014-1024x424.png\" alt=\"GBPCHF DAILY 12052014\" width=\"1024\" height=\"424\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nWorking with round numbers 1.5000 will be a big level. We are currently trading at 1.4975.\r\n\r\n1. My proposed trade here is to go long after 1.5000 is confirmed.\r\n\r\n2. Place a stop at todays lows of 1.4918.\r\n\r\n3. Add to the trade on a break above the 100% Fibonacci level at 1.5120.\r\n\r\n4. Then move your stop to break even.\r\n\r\n5. Your initial target should be the 123% extension at 1.5380\r\n\r\n6. Depending on your trade size, you can of course half your position at any time as per your TRADING PLAN guidelines.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nFinally, to A from DUBAI - Did you enter short the NZD/USD or are you waiting until it breaks 0.8600 (My level to add to my existing short)? Right now, this pair is getting a lift due to the U.S. equity futures. If you are still holding out on entering, the next resistance at 0.8645 would appear to be a good area to try a short back to 0.8600 ( if we get that high) and hopefully below, but watch equities we may consolidate today.\r\n\r\nBest of luck today,\r\n\r\nScott','#28 - THE DAILY FX POST, Monday 12th May 20th','','publish','open','closed','','28-daily-fx-post-monday-12th-may-20th','','','2014-05-12 07:41:48','2014-05-12 12:41:48','',0,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?post_type=member_posts&#038;p=3667',0,'member_posts','',0),(3668,1,'2014-05-12 07:31:58','2014-05-12 12:31:58','Good day,\r\n\r\nI trust that you all had a great weekend.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>JPY PAIRS:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nFrom the weekends PREMIUM SERVICE blog, I was going to analyise the JPY pairs this morning. However, my observations are that until the USD/JPY breaks below 101.50, it is not really worth getting too excited. Equities/ Futures are trading to the long side which is keeping the JPY supported at the moment and the USD a little stagnated.\r\n\r\nHowever, here is the  macro view that I have: The EUR/JPY needs to break below 140.00, and, in fact , I would like to see a daily close below 140.00. This would confirm a greater downside move. The CHF/JPY also looks to be trading very heavy.\r\n\r\nMy  JPY trades would be EUR/JPY and CHF/JPY in addition to the USD/JPY. Should I get the urger to trade these or set up some limit orders I will advise you via twitter.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>EUR/USD:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nI read over the weekend that Goldman Sachs are targeting 1.3675 as their short limit. I see this pair moving a lot lower, but at 1.3675 there is a confluence of Fibonacci levels. This may produce a bounce to sell into to enjoy the next move lower hopefully to  1.3450 - 1.3500.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>GBP/CHF:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nRADAR TRADE SET UP:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/GBPCHF-DAILY-12052014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-3665\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/GBPCHF-DAILY-12052014-1024x424.png\" alt=\"GBPCHF DAILY 12052014\" width=\"1024\" height=\"424\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nWorking with round numbers 1.5000 will be a big level. We are currently trading at 1.4975.\r\n\r\n1. My proposed trade here is to go long after 1.5000 is confirmed.\r\n\r\n2. Place a stop at todays lows of 1.4918.\r\n\r\n3. Add to the trade on a break above the 100% Fibonacci level at 1.5120.\r\n\r\n4. Then move your stop to break even.\r\n\r\n5. Your initial target should be the 123% extension at 1.5380','#28 - THE DAILY FX POST, Monday 12th May 20th','','inherit','open','closed','','3667-revision-v1','','','2014-05-12 07:31:58','2014-05-12 12:31:58','',3667,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/3667-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(3669,1,'2014-05-12 07:40:51','2014-05-12 12:40:51','Good day,\r\n\r\nI trust that you all had a great weekend.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>JPY PAIRS:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nFrom the weekends PREMIUM SERVICE blog, I was going to analyse the JPY pairs this morning. However, my observations are that until the USD/JPY breaks below 101.50, it is not really worth getting too excited. Equities/ Futures are trading to the long side which is keeping the JPY supported at the moment and the USD a little stagnated.\r\n\r\nHowever, here is the  macro view that I have: The EUR/JPY needs to break below 140.00, and, in fact , I would like to see a daily close below 140.00. This would confirm a greater downside move. The CHF/JPY also looks to be trading very heavy.\r\n\r\nMy  JPY trades would be EUR/JPY and CHF/JPY in addition to the USD/JPY. Should I get the urge to trade these or set up some limit orders I will advise you via twitter.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>EUR/USD:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nI read over the weekend that Goldman Sachs are targeting 1.3675 as their short limit. I see this pair moving a lot lower, but at 1.3675 there is a confluence of Fibonacci levels. This may produce a bounce to sell into to enjoy the next move lower hopefully to  1.3450 - 1.3500.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>GBP/CHF:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nRADAR TRADE SET UP: ( I HAVE PLACED THIS ORDER WITH MY BROKER)\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/GBPCHF-DAILY-12052014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-3665\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/GBPCHF-DAILY-12052014-1024x424.png\" alt=\"GBPCHF DAILY 12052014\" width=\"1024\" height=\"424\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nWorking with round numbers 1.5000 will be a big level. We are currently trading at 1.4975.\r\n\r\n1. My proposed trade here is to go long after 1.5000 is confirmed.\r\n\r\n2. Place a stop at todays lows of 1.4918.\r\n\r\n3. Add to the trade on a break above the 100% Fibonacci level at 1.5120.\r\n\r\n4. Then move your stop to break even.\r\n\r\n5. Your initial target should be the 123% extension at 1.5380\r\n\r\n6. Depending on your trade size, you can of course half your position at any time as per your TRADING PLAN guidelines.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nFinally, to A from DUBAI - Did you enter short the NZD/USD or are you waiting until it breaks 0.8600 (My level to add to my existing short)? Right now, this pair is getting a lift due to the U.S. equity futures. If you are still holding out on entering, the next resistance at 0.8645 would appear to be a good area to try a short back to 0.8600 and hopefully below, but watch equities we may consolidate today.\r\n\r\nBest of luck today,\r\n\r\nScott','#28 - THE DAILY FX POST, Monday 12th May 20th','','inherit','open','closed','','3667-revision-v1','','','2014-05-12 07:40:51','2014-05-12 12:40:51','',3667,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/3667-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(3670,1,'2014-05-12 07:41:48','2014-05-12 12:41:48','Good day,\r\n\r\nI trust that you all had a great weekend.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>JPY PAIRS:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nFrom the weekends PREMIUM SERVICE blog, I was going to analyse the JPY pairs this morning. However, my observations are that until the USD/JPY breaks below 101.50, it is not really worth getting too excited. Equities/ Futures are trading to the long side which is keeping the JPY supported at the moment and the USD a little stagnated.\r\n\r\nHowever, here is the  macro view that I have: The EUR/JPY needs to break below 140.00, and, in fact , I would like to see a daily close below 140.00. This would confirm a greater downside move. The CHF/JPY also looks to be trading very heavy.\r\n\r\nMy  JPY trades would be EUR/JPY and CHF/JPY in addition to the USD/JPY. Should I get the urge to trade these or set up some limit orders I will advise you via twitter.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>EUR/USD:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nI read over the weekend that Goldman Sachs are targeting 1.3675 as their short limit. I see this pair moving a lot lower, but at 1.3675 there is a confluence of Fibonacci levels. This may produce a bounce to sell into to enjoy the next move lower hopefully to  1.3450 - 1.3500.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>GBP/CHF:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nRADAR TRADE SET UP: ( I HAVE PLACED THIS ORDER WITH MY BROKER)\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/GBPCHF-DAILY-12052014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-3665\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/GBPCHF-DAILY-12052014-1024x424.png\" alt=\"GBPCHF DAILY 12052014\" width=\"1024\" height=\"424\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nWorking with round numbers 1.5000 will be a big level. We are currently trading at 1.4975.\r\n\r\n1. My proposed trade here is to go long after 1.5000 is confirmed.\r\n\r\n2. Place a stop at todays lows of 1.4918.\r\n\r\n3. Add to the trade on a break above the 100% Fibonacci level at 1.5120.\r\n\r\n4. Then move your stop to break even.\r\n\r\n5. Your initial target should be the 123% extension at 1.5380\r\n\r\n6. Depending on your trade size, you can of course half your position at any time as per your TRADING PLAN guidelines.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nFinally, to A from DUBAI - Did you enter short the NZD/USD or are you waiting until it breaks 0.8600 (My level to add to my existing short)? Right now, this pair is getting a lift due to the U.S. equity futures. If you are still holding out on entering, the next resistance at 0.8645 would appear to be a good area to try a short back to 0.8600 ( if we get that high) and hopefully below, but watch equities we may consolidate today.\r\n\r\nBest of luck today,\r\n\r\nScott','#28 - THE DAILY FX POST, Monday 12th May 20th','','inherit','open','closed','','3667-revision-v1','','','2014-05-12 07:41:48','2014-05-12 12:41:48','',3667,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/3667-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(3672,1,'2014-05-13 07:13:02','2014-05-13 12:13:02','Good Morning,\r\n\r\nSorry, I forgot to welcome the new subscribers from the weekend yesterday....belated greetings and welcome.\r\n\r\nI have a gut feeling that U.S. equities are going to roll over today so that will hopefully generate some FX movement. Yesterday, was like an August trading day, it was really slow and very boring.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>EUR/USD:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nThe EUR/USD looks like it is about to test 1.3685 sometime today and if it holds I will be reducing my position size in this pair by 50% from the current size. I still have a longer goal that this pair is going to 1.3450.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>GBP/USD:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nOn the 240M chart there is a \"Head and Shoulders\" pattern developing but we need to see a confirmed break of 1.6820 to confirm that it is in play. The measured move in 1.6650.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>EUR/GBP:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nThis is trading very heavy at the moment and as you know it is the inverse of the GBP/CHF. If the GBP/CHF breaks out (I already have a limit order in place), I will look to short this pair.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>NZD/USD:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nRetail sales data is released later today and RBNZ Wheeler talks after that. I expect him to try and talk down the NZD as best he can when he delivers his speech. If you are not already short, an entry between 0.8650 and 0.8670 looks great with solid support sitting at 0.8600. If this pair breaks thru 0.8600, it should be a great move lower. I am already short and I will add on a break below 0.8600.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nI am also looking at the commodity crosses some of these have been beaten up really bad of late and key support levels are close.\r\n\r\nI will tweet any new set-ups,\r\n\r\nGood Luck trading today, lets hope we see some moves,\r\n\r\nScott','#29 - THE DAILY FX POST, Tuesday 13th May 2014','','inherit','open','closed','','3671-revision-v1','','','2014-05-13 07:13:02','2014-05-13 12:13:02','',3671,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/3671-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(3677,1,'2014-05-14 07:48:24','2014-05-14 12:48:24','Good Day,\r\n\r\nQuite a bit of information today. I delayed the release time until after USD PPi data release.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>OVERVIEW:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nOvernight the GBP was hit hard on employment data and Carney\'s testimony regarding the BOE Inflation report was not  GBP supportive. My EUR/GBP trade is therefore suffering as a result. I am not certain that I will hold this for the day and its looks like a massive reversal engulfing candle on the daily chart will be formed unless something major transpires during the day. Yet another false breakdown through yearly trend line support.....\r\n\r\nWheeler did not really talk down the NZD yesterday either...so if you are nor short the NZD/USD or for that matter the AUD/USD - 0.8675 (NZD)and 0.9410 (AUD) offer good levels to get short in my opinion. Support for both pairs at 0.8600 (NZD) and 0.9310 (AUD) are strong support areas.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>JPY PAIRS:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nI have placed three sell limit orders with my brokers just after PPi (USD) as follows.\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY (Below)\r\nRT77\r\nShort at 101.90\r\nStop Loss 102.25\r\nLimit 98.00\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/USDJPY-DAILY-14052014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-3674\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/USDJPY-DAILY-14052014-1024x514.png\" alt=\"USDJPY DAILY 14052014\" width=\"1024\" height=\"514\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nEUR/JPY (Below)\r\nRT78\r\nShort vat 139.75\r\nStop Loss 140.50\r\nLimit 136.25\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/EURJPY-DAILY-14052014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-3675\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/EURJPY-DAILY-14052014-1024x514.png\" alt=\"EURJPY DAILY 14052014\" width=\"1024\" height=\"514\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nCHF/JPY (Below)\r\nRT79\r\nShort at 114.60\r\nStop Loss 115.50\r\nLimit 113.20\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/CHFJPY-DAILY-14052014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-3676\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/CHFJPY-DAILY-14052014-1024x514.png\" alt=\"CHFJPY DAILY 14052014\" width=\"1024\" height=\"514\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>SUMMARY OF EXISTING LIVE TRADES:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nUSD/SEK - LONG\r\n\r\nUSD/NOK - LONG\r\n\r\nEUR/GBP - SHORT\r\n\r\nEUR/USD - SHORT\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF - LONG\r\n\r\nNZD /USD - SHORT\r\n\r\nAUD/USD - SHORT\r\n\r\nNZD/USD - SHORT (Second Trade)\r\n\r\nGBP/USD - SHORT\r\n\r\nGBP/NZD - LONG\r\n\r\nGenerally speaking I am comfortable with all these trades except the EUR/GBP.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>TRADES WITH LIMIT ORDERS:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nGBP/CHF - LONG\r\n\r\nAUD/USD - LONG\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY - SHORT\r\n\r\nEUR/JPY - SHORT\r\n\r\nCHF/JPY - SHORT\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nI am looking at the USD/CAD to enter long, but there is a great deal going on. I will tweet if I place a limit order.\r\n\r\nGood luck today....make it profitable.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott','#30 - THE DAILY FX POST, Wednesday 14th 2014','','publish','open','closed','','30-daily-fx-post-wednesday-14th-2014','','','2014-05-14 07:48:24','2014-05-14 12:48:24','',0,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?post_type=member_posts&#038;p=3677',0,'member_posts','',0),(3678,1,'2014-05-14 07:33:32','2014-05-14 12:33:32','Good Day,\r\n\r\nQuite a bit of information today. I delayed the release time until after USD PPi data release.\r\n\r\nOvernight the GBP was hit hard on employment data and Carney\'s testimony regarding the BOE Inflation report was not  GBP supportive. My EURGBP trade is therefore suffering as a result. I am not certain that I will hold this for the day and its looks like a massive reversal engulfing candle on the daily chart will be formed unless something major transpires during the day. Yet another false breakdown through yearly trend line support.....\r\n\r\nWheeler did not really talk down the NZD yesterday either...so if you are nor short the NZD/USD or for that matter the AUD/USD - 0.8675 (NZD)and 0.9410 (AUD) offer good levels to get short in my opinion. Support for both pairs at 0.8600 (NZD) and 0.9310 (AUD) are strong support areas.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','#30 - THE DAILY FX POST, Wednesday 14th 2014','','inherit','open','closed','','3677-revision-v1','','','2014-05-14 07:33:32','2014-05-14 12:33:32','',3677,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/3677-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(3679,1,'2014-05-14 07:47:50','2014-05-14 12:47:50','Good Day,\r\n\r\nQuite a bit of information today. I delayed the release time until after USD PPi data release.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>OVERVIEW:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nOvernight the GBP was hit hard on employment data and Carney\'s testimony regarding the BOE Inflation report was not  GBP supportive. My EURGBP trade is therefore suffering as a result. I am not certain that I will hold this for the day and its looks like a massive reversal engulfing candle on the daily chart will be formed unless something major transpires during the day. Yet another false breakdown through yearly trend line support.....\r\n\r\nWheeler did not really talk down the NZD yesterday either...so if you are nor short the NZD/USD or for that matter the AUD/USD - 0.8675 (NZD)and 0.9410 (AUD) offer good levels to get short in my opinion. Support for both pairs at 0.8600 (NZD) and 0.9310 (AUD) are strong support areas.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>JPY PAIRS:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nI have placed three sell limit orders with my brokers just after PPi (USD) as follows.\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY (Below)\r\nRT77\r\nShort at 101.90\r\nStop Loss 102.25\r\nLimit 98.00\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/USDJPY-DAILY-14052014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-3674\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/USDJPY-DAILY-14052014-1024x514.png\" alt=\"USDJPY DAILY 14052014\" width=\"1024\" height=\"514\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nEUR/JPY (Below)\r\nRT78\r\nShort vat 139.75\r\nStop Loss 140.50\r\nLimit 136.25\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/EURJPY-DAILY-14052014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-3675\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/EURJPY-DAILY-14052014-1024x514.png\" alt=\"EURJPY DAILY 14052014\" width=\"1024\" height=\"514\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nCHF/JPY (Below)\r\nRT79\r\nShort at 114.60\r\nStop Loss 115.50\r\nLimit 113.20\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/CHFJPY-DAILY-14052014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-3676\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/CHFJPY-DAILY-14052014-1024x514.png\" alt=\"CHFJPY DAILY 14052014\" width=\"1024\" height=\"514\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>SUMMARY OF EXISTING LIVE TRADES:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nUSD/SEK - LONG\r\n\r\nUSD/NOK - LONG\r\n\r\nEUR/GBP - SHORT\r\n\r\nEUR/USD - SHORT\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF - LONG\r\n\r\nNZD /USD - SHORT\r\n\r\nAUD/USD - SHORT\r\n\r\nNZD/USD - SHORT (Second Trade)\r\n\r\nGBP/USD - SHORT\r\n\r\nGBP/NZD - LONG\r\n\r\nGenerally speaking I am comfortable with all these trades except the EUR/GBP.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>TRADES WITH LIMIT ORDERS:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nGBP/CHF - LONG\r\n\r\nAUD/USD - LONG\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY - SHORT\r\n\r\nEUR/JPY - SHORT\r\n\r\nCHF/JPY - SHORT\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nI am looking at the USD/CAD to enter long, but there is a great deal going on. I will tweet if I place a limit order.\r\n\r\nGood luck today....make it profitable.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott','#30 - THE DAILY FX POST, Wednesday 14th 2014','','inherit','open','closed','','3677-revision-v1','','','2014-05-14 07:47:50','2014-05-14 12:47:50','',3677,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/3677-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(3680,1,'2014-05-14 07:48:24','2014-05-14 12:48:24','Good Day,\r\n\r\nQuite a bit of information today. I delayed the release time until after USD PPi data release.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>OVERVIEW:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nOvernight the GBP was hit hard on employment data and Carney\'s testimony regarding the BOE Inflation report was not  GBP supportive. My EUR/GBP trade is therefore suffering as a result. I am not certain that I will hold this for the day and its looks like a massive reversal engulfing candle on the daily chart will be formed unless something major transpires during the day. Yet another false breakdown through yearly trend line support.....\r\n\r\nWheeler did not really talk down the NZD yesterday either...so if you are nor short the NZD/USD or for that matter the AUD/USD - 0.8675 (NZD)and 0.9410 (AUD) offer good levels to get short in my opinion. Support for both pairs at 0.8600 (NZD) and 0.9310 (AUD) are strong support areas.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>JPY PAIRS:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nI have placed three sell limit orders with my brokers just after PPi (USD) as follows.\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY (Below)\r\nRT77\r\nShort at 101.90\r\nStop Loss 102.25\r\nLimit 98.00\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/USDJPY-DAILY-14052014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-3674\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/USDJPY-DAILY-14052014-1024x514.png\" alt=\"USDJPY DAILY 14052014\" width=\"1024\" height=\"514\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nEUR/JPY (Below)\r\nRT78\r\nShort vat 139.75\r\nStop Loss 140.50\r\nLimit 136.25\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/EURJPY-DAILY-14052014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-3675\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/EURJPY-DAILY-14052014-1024x514.png\" alt=\"EURJPY DAILY 14052014\" width=\"1024\" height=\"514\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nCHF/JPY (Below)\r\nRT79\r\nShort at 114.60\r\nStop Loss 115.50\r\nLimit 113.20\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/CHFJPY-DAILY-14052014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-3676\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/CHFJPY-DAILY-14052014-1024x514.png\" alt=\"CHFJPY DAILY 14052014\" width=\"1024\" height=\"514\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>SUMMARY OF EXISTING LIVE TRADES:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nUSD/SEK - LONG\r\n\r\nUSD/NOK - LONG\r\n\r\nEUR/GBP - SHORT\r\n\r\nEUR/USD - SHORT\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF - LONG\r\n\r\nNZD /USD - SHORT\r\n\r\nAUD/USD - SHORT\r\n\r\nNZD/USD - SHORT (Second Trade)\r\n\r\nGBP/USD - SHORT\r\n\r\nGBP/NZD - LONG\r\n\r\nGenerally speaking I am comfortable with all these trades except the EUR/GBP.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>TRADES WITH LIMIT ORDERS:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nGBP/CHF - LONG\r\n\r\nAUD/USD - LONG\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY - SHORT\r\n\r\nEUR/JPY - SHORT\r\n\r\nCHF/JPY - SHORT\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nI am looking at the USD/CAD to enter long, but there is a great deal going on. I will tweet if I place a limit order.\r\n\r\nGood luck today....make it profitable.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott','#30 - THE DAILY FX POST, Wednesday 14th 2014','','inherit','open','closed','','3677-revision-v1','','','2014-05-14 07:48:24','2014-05-14 12:48:24','',3677,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/3677-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(3681,1,'2014-05-15 07:15:48','2014-05-15 12:15:48','Good Day,\r\n\r\nFirstly, welcome to two new subscribers from overnight, hopefully everything is working, not heard anything that is not working, so hopefully all is good.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>OVERVIEW:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nA bit of movement overnight into the North American session today. The Eurozone taking centre stage.  I took the opportunity of the EUR moves to cover several positions and remove profits from trades moving my stops to protected stops by about +5 pips. I have banked big $$$ this morning especially from the USD/CHF long trade  which I have held for 5 weeks adding to my core position on pullbacks, so I am happy that I have banked 80% of my position size. It was my largest holding, next to the NZD/USD short which I am still holding.\r\n\r\nThe EUR/USD broke below 61.8% Fibonacci support at 1.3675 and if looking at the DAILY chart you will see that apart from a false breakout last Thursday (On Draghi\'s big day out) we are now out of the range and are trading the range extension from which the measured move is down to trend line support at 1.3380. If you are not yet short, if we pull back to 1.3575-90, this would like a great place to enter short...1.3750 would be better but not sure we will get there.\r\n\r\nMost of the Oil, Gold, Copper, Nikkei  Futures, S&amp;P, Dow Jones and Nasdaq are all trading flat or marginally positive or negative. Are we going to have a boring day like yesterday? The USD index looks strong though.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>TRADES OVERVIEWS:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nI entered the CAD/CHF on an inverted Head and Shoulders  a little earlier.\r\n\r\nI am looking at the EUR/CAD to the short side which is the inverted trade in many ways to the CAD/CHF. There is a hEad and Shoulders pattern there as well. I am so used to and prefer to trade this pair to the long side I am not so sure that I want to take the trade. If I have a hallelujah moment I will let you know via Twitter.\r\n\r\nThe three JPY trades posted yesterday USD/JPY, CHF/JPY and EUR/JPY all had entries that limited in (triggered).\r\n\r\nI have 11 live trades at the moment with two limit orders on standby. I do not really want to add more trades, but, I am happy to hold what I have, and, ahead of the weekend I will further reduce risk exposure. I will add back if it\'s the right thing to do next week.\r\n\r\nGood Luck today, hopefully you banked some $$$ last night / this morning depending upon your location,\r\n\r\nScott','#31 - THE DAILY FX POST, Thursday 15th May 2014','','publish','open','closed','','31-daily-fx-post-thursday-15th-may-2014','','','2014-05-15 07:17:08','2014-05-15 12:17:08','',0,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?post_type=member_posts&#038;p=3681',0,'member_posts','',0),(3682,1,'2014-05-15 07:15:30','2014-05-15 12:15:30','Good Day,\r\n\r\nFirstly, welcome to two new subscribers from overnight, hopefully everything is working, not heard anything that is not working, so hopefully all is good.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>OVERVIEW:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nA bit of movement overnight into the North American session today. The Eurozone taking centre stage.  I took the opportunity of the EUR moves to cover several positions and remove profits from trades moving my stops to protected stops by about +5 pips. I have banked big $$$ this morning especially from the USD/CHF long trade  which I have held for 5 weeks adding to my core position on pullbacks, so I am happy that I have banked 80% of my position size. It was my largest holding, next to the NZD/USD short which I am still holding.\r\n\r\nThe EUR/USD broke below 61.8% Fibonacci support at 1.3675 and if looking at the DAILY chart you will see that apart from a false breakout last Thursday (On Draghi\'s big day out) we are now out of the range and are trading the range extension from which the measured move is down to trend line support at 1.3380. If you are not yet short, if we pull back to 1.3575-90, this would like like a great place to enter short...1.3750 would be better but not sure we will get there.\r\n\r\nMost of the Oil, Gold, Copper, Nikkei  Futures, S&amp;P, Dow Jones and Nasdaq are all trading flat or marginally positive or negative. Are we going to have a boring day like yesterday? The USD index looks strong though.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>TRADES OVERVIEWS:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nI entered the CAD/CHF on an inverted Head and Shoulders  a little earlier.\r\n\r\nI am looking at the EUR/CAD to the short side which is the inverted trade in many ways to the CAD/CHF. There is a hEad and Shoulders pattern there as well. I am so used to and prefer to trade this pair to the long side I am not so sure that I want to take the trade. If I have a hallelujah moment I will let you know via Twitter.\r\n\r\nThe three JPY trades posted yesterday USD/JPY, CHF/JPY and EUR/JPY all had entries that limited in (triggered).\r\n\r\nI have 11 live trades at the moment with two limit orders on standby. I do not really want to add more trades, but, I am happy to hold what I have, and, ahead of the weekend I will further reduce risk exposure. I will add back if it\'s the right thing to do next week.\r\n\r\nGood Luck today, hopefully you banked some $$$ last night / this morning depending upon your location,\r\n\r\nScott','#31 - THE DAILY FX POST, Thursday 15th May 2014','','inherit','open','closed','','3681-revision-v1','','','2014-05-15 07:15:30','2014-05-15 12:15:30','',3681,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/3681-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(3683,1,'2014-05-15 07:16:32','2014-05-15 12:16:32','Good Day,\r\n\r\nFirstly, welcome to two new subscribers from overnight, hopefully everything is working, not heard anything that is not working, so hopefully all is good.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>OVERVIEW:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nA bit of movement overnight into the North American session today. The Eurozone taking centre stage.  I took the opportunity of the EUR moves to cover several positions and remove profits from trades moving my stops to protected stops by about +5 pips. I have banked big $$$ this morning especially from the USD/CHF long trade  which I have held for 5 weeks adding to my core position on pullbacks, so I am happy that I have banked 80% of my position size. It was my largest holding, next to the NZD/USD short which I am still holding.\r\n\r\nThe EUR/USD broke below 61.8% Fibonacci support at 1.3675 and if looking at the DAILY chart you will see that apart from a false breakout last Thursday (On Draghi\'s big day out) we are now out of the range and are trading the range extension from which the measured move is down to trend line support at 1.3380. If you are not yet short, if we pull back to 1.3575-90, this would like a great place to enter short...1.3750 would be better but not sure we will get there.\r\n\r\nMost of the Oil, Gold, Copper, Nikkei  Futures, S&amp;P, Dow Jones and Nasdaq are all trading flat or marginally positive or negative. Are we going to have a boring day like yesterday? The USD index looks strong though.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>TRADES OVERVIEWS:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nI entered the CAD/CHF on an inverted Head and Shoulders  a little earlier.\r\n\r\nI am looking at the EUR/CAD to the short side which is the inverted trade in many ways to the CAD/CHF. There is a hEad and Shoulders pattern there as well. I am so used to and prefer to trade this pair to the long side I am not so sure that I want to take the trade. If I have a hallelujah moment I will let you know via Twitter.\r\n\r\nThe three JPY trades posted yesterday USD/JPY, CHF/JPY and EUR/JPY all had entries that limited in (triggered).\r\n\r\nI have 11 live trades at the moment with two limit orders on standby. I do not really want to add more trades, but, I am happy to hold what I have, and, ahead of the weekend I will further reduce risk exposure. I will add back if it\'s the right thing to do next week.\r\n\r\nGood Luck today, hopefully you banked some $$$ last night / this morning depending upon your location,\r\n\r\nScott','#31 - THE DAILY FX POST, Thursday 15th May 2014','','inherit','open','closed','','3681-revision-v1','','','2014-05-15 07:16:32','2014-05-15 12:16:32','',3681,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/3681-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(3685,1,'2014-05-16 07:26:32','2014-05-16 12:26:32','Good Day,\r\n\r\nI apologise once again that I forgot to tweet that I had posted the update yesterday morning.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>OVERVIEW:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nI have taken the conservative route today, by closing out my JPY trades. I want to bank $$$ that is what I am trading for. The JPY pairs are really held captive by the USD/JPY that needs to break 101.20 to get things moving. With the EUR/USD  fall appearing to be halted for a while, the EUR/JPY should stay quiet until next week at least, so this was in mind when making the decision. Above all, I wanted to bank some $$$ into my broker accounts. I hate giving profits away, in particular when I am not at my desk to control matters.  The great thing about the Forex market is that you can always re-enter on a pullback.\r\n\r\nThe spike lower and pullback in the EUR/USD from 1.3650 yesterday, was telling. I think we maybe on hold for a while before heading lower again. In fact, I am hoping for a move back toy 1.3800 in the EUR/USD to enter short once again.\r\n\r\nThe markets do look quiet today and we have been range trading in some very tight 20-30 pip ranges overnight. I am hoping that today will be quiet as well, but because I am not around it will no doubt be frisky in the North American session. Please be careful if you trade today, remember that it is a Friday  and you really do not want to get caught on the wrong side of a trade and have to hold over the weekend hoping for a move or gap in your favour. The tight moves overnight do worry me a little and also the Friday squaring off of accounts could cause volatility.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>TRADE SET-UPS:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nI will not publish any new trade ideas being a Friday, but I have some thoughts on CAD and CHF pairs for next week plus how to re-enter the JPY pairs. That I will have in the blog tomorrow.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nBe careful today, I have a gut feeling that moves are in the air.....\r\n\r\nScott','#32 - THE DAILY FX POST, Friday 16th May 2014','','inherit','open','closed','','3684-revision-v1','','','2014-05-16 07:26:32','2014-05-16 12:26:32','',3684,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/3684-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(3748,1,'2014-05-27 06:34:54','2014-05-27 11:34:54','Good Day,\r\n\r\nWelcome to new members from the weekend,\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>OVERVIEW:</strong></span>\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li>The U.S. stock market rallies to wards new highs yet the USD/JPY fails to respond and cannot maintain a position above 102.00. It is NOT rallying with risk appetite.</li>\r\n	<li>EUR/USD, toying with 200 day SMA this is around 1.3635. Keep your eyes on this level as we move forward. A close below here will be bearish. There will be a huge amount of Chop Fest around this pair until the June ECB Press Conference and interest rate decision. The ECB have telegraphed that they are proposing to take action against DEFLATION and growth as well as the strong EUR/USD and other cross rates strength. Speculation is high and rumours will swing EUR related pairs up and down  at times for no apparent reasons.</li>\r\n	<li>USD/CAD, very strong. I am looking to pick this pair up on a RADAR TRADE later today if I get my charts sorted with levels!! (I will tweet)</li>\r\n	<li>AUD/NZD, (AUD is very strong and NZD is very weak) I had this pair on my RADAR to enter long around the 61.8% retracement 1.0760 or lower towards 1.0700. We never got these but I know Yang from HK did...well done great trade it is anchored now above 1.0800 and I think potentially 1.1350 is a long , long-term target. I will need a substantial pullback to get me long. But well done Yang.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>TRADES:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nPresent positions are: -\r\n\r\nGBP/USD  short +20 pips\r\n\r\nAUD/USD short -17 pips\r\n\r\nEUR/CHF long -3 pips\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF long +59 pips\r\n\r\nGBP/CHF long -22 pips\r\n\r\nEUR/USD short +26 pips\r\n\r\nEUR/GBP short +1 pip\r\n\r\nEUR/AUD long  - 12 pips\r\n\r\nEUR/JPY short -39 pips\r\n\r\nNZD/USD short -5 pips\r\n\r\nGBP/NZD long - 216 pips (re-hedged again)...This is a long, long, long, long-term trade...FUNDAMENTAL of the highest proportions.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nIf I add trades or amend, I will tweet.\r\n\r\nGood luck today, take care,\r\n\r\nScott','#38 - THE DAILY FX POST, Tuesday 27th May 2014','','publish','open','closed','','38-daily-fx-post-tuesday-27th-may-2014','','','2014-05-27 06:34:54','2014-05-27 11:34:54','',0,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?post_type=member_posts&#038;p=3748',0,'member_posts','',0),(3698,1,'2014-05-17 08:27:25','2014-05-17 13:27:25','<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>1. INTRODUCTION:</strong>\r\n\r\nFrom a personal trading week, it was a really good one. Somehow though I am still not feeling bouncy, bouncy, bouncy with the joys of Spring and the Forex Markets.\r\n\r\nTrading psychology is on of the most important aspects to consider in trading. FEAR and GREED dominate everything and at the moment, using self-diagnosis, I believe that I am in FEAR MOMENT with regards to my trading. I am so used to false breakouts and false breakdowns, that I simply do not want to give hard earned $$$$ back to the brokers. I am probably not allowing profitable trades to develop to their full potential. Given the “Chop Fest” that we are dealing with at the moment and if it’s not a chop fest, it’s very tight ranges almost stagnation, am I wrong to trade the way that I am?\r\n\r\nI am banking $$$, so I should not complain, but am I maximizing the profit? I am beating myself up at times and perhaps I should just take a step back and take a macro view of what is going on, and, maybe it’s not so bad.\r\n\r\nLooking at the worldwide currency trading market for a moment, from a very macro level: -\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>There are according to reports from brokers less live accounts being used right now by individual traders like you and me.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>The banking Forex operations are either losing money or not turning the huge profits that they were before (Royal Bank of Scotland and Credit Suisse).</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>Most of the major Forex institutions are scaling back, there are staff being fired, suspended or on gardening leave.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>The top 5 banks in currency dealing worldwide now control over 60% of the market, which now trades a mere $5.3tn per day.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>The overall market operation worldwide in currency trading is being squeezed as the changes happen.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>High Frequency trading (HFT) is never far from the headlines in any marketplace at the moment.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>Things have changed and are changing all the time as the market evolves</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nMy point is, at my micro level, if the smaller banking operations involved in Forex trading are suffering, and, if I am making my few dollars each day, I should be a happy camper! I suppose I will have to put it down to self imposed pressure to always do a little bit better.\r\n\r\nDuring the week, the Eurozone debate, and as well predicted last week, what measures are open to the ECB in June has captivated journalists all over Europe. The one agreement is that, Draghi has backed himself into a corner so he has to act and do something. If he fails to act he will lose a huge amount of credibility.\r\n\r\nMy mate “Wheeler the Dealer” Governor of the RBNZ failed to talk down the Kiwi on two occasions during the past week and so it remains above key support at 0.8600, but it has been trading heavy and every now and then getting little bounces to keep it elevated. As long as equities remain in an uptrend the NZD will always be supported.\r\n\r\nCarney BOE Governor, didn\'t talk about interest rate increases in the UK and that stopped the cable dead in it’s tracks to 1.7000 for me to activate my short.\r\n\r\nLooking forward I think we are going to find that USD/JPY is going to dominate Forex matters. The support level of 101.20 is crucial. We are flirting with it hovering 20-30 pips above and trading in a very tight range. Yesterday (Friday) it was in a 31 pips trading range...hold your breath the JPY could be the one currency that is going to push and pull the Forex market in the coming sessions.\r\n\r\nWe have a couple of weeks before the “Draghi Roadshow” hits the markets so the filler will not be the EUR/USD but the USD/JPY and it’s cross-rates.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>2. TRADING SUMMARY:</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>RADAR, FLASH and FUNDAMENTAL TRADES\r\n</strong><strong>MAY 2014 and YEAR to date:</strong></p>\r\nBelow I show the up to date performances for my various trading styles. Full excel spreadsheets are in the subscriber area of the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/PREM-SERVICE-PROFITS1-17052014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-3692\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/PREM-SERVICE-PROFITS1-17052014.png\" alt=\"PREM SERVICE PROFITS1 17052014\" width=\"442\" height=\"424\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/PREM-SERVICE-PROFITS-2-17052014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-3693\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/PREM-SERVICE-PROFITS-2-17052014.png\" alt=\"PREM SERVICE PROFITS 2 17052014\" width=\"462\" height=\"418\" /></a>\r\n\r\nThe above examples are for illustration purposes only:\r\n\r\nThe profitability examples detailed above are based solely upon single lot trading, regardless of lot type. If multiple lot sizes are traded the profitability margins will be different than those shown.\r\n\r\nJust to provide more information so you understand where I am coming from with the risk / reward statements above. All of my trades are of different sizes and different size lot types. The above does not reflect the actual trading performance, but it does show you the direction of the performance of the trades placed.\r\n\r\nI like to add to trades, profits are taken as the trade progresses and my overall cost average moves several times. All of my trades are of different lot styles. I trade a mixture of micro lots, mini lots and standard lots across my brokers.\r\n\r\nThe above results simply display your profit or loss if you placed a single lot trade on all the set-ups suggested and did nothing else.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>3. THE FUNDAMENTAL TRADERS OVERVIEW:</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>MOVE OVER EUR…IT’S GOING TO BE ABOUT THE JPY FIRST</strong></p>\r\nI eluded to it earlier in the blog and, despite closing out all my short JPY positions yesterday for over a big +200 pips with having two great bites of profit on these trades in two days, I am looking to re-enter short early next week.\r\n\r\nIf you recall a few months ago the JPY had a day or two where it controlled all things Forex. The USD was handed it’s butt to itself on a plate then kicked to the left and then to the right. As the USD/JPY collapsed, the EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD squeezed high.\r\n\r\nI want the same to happen again, enabling the following: -\r\n\r\nShort EUR/USD at 1.3800\r\nShort GBP/USD at 1.7000\r\nShort AUD/USD at 0.9500\r\nShort NZD/USD at 0.8750\r\n\r\nThe writing is on the wall. There is a lack of consistent correlation in the USD/JPY with the S&amp;P. The S&amp;P and Dow Jones are touching all-time highs and the JPY is falling. U.S. Bonds are ripping higher both 10 and 30 year, this is keeping the USD/JPY pressured. The USD/JPY is skirting key support at 101.20 and the cross-rates are on the precipice of huge falls.\r\n\r\nI have charts of my favourite three JPY trades. The USD/JPY, CHF/JPY and EUR/JPY.\r\n\r\nOne of the great things in trading the JPY pairs is that round numbers seem to hold some sort of fascination for JPY traders. Once a round number is broken to me it feels like a directional / momentum confirmation has been verified.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/USDJPY-DAILY-17052014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-3688\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/USDJPY-DAILY-17052014-1024x514.png\" alt=\"USDJPY DAILY 17052014\" width=\"1024\" height=\"514\" /></a>\r\n\r\nFrom the chart above you can see how important 101.20 is as support. We have broken trend line support already. I think that rather than Fibonacci levels the horizontal supports will offer better support levels if it moves lower.\r\n\r\nI do think that this pair could hit 98.00 (I will have this Monthly chart for PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers in Monday’s DAILY FX POST, if we break down)\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/EURJPY-DAILY-17052014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-3689\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/EURJPY-DAILY-17052014-1024x514.png\" alt=\"EURJPY DAILY 17052014\" width=\"1024\" height=\"514\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nLooking at the EUR/JPY chart above, you can see that we are well below trend line support. I think we are going to re-trace all the way to 136.25 with this pair, maybe even further, if Draghi extracts the digit. 138.50 is the next support level.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/CHFJPY-DAILY-17052014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-3690\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/CHFJPY-DAILY-17052014-1024x514.png\" alt=\"CHFJPY DAILY 17052014\" width=\"1024\" height=\"514\" /></a>\r\n\r\nThe trend line support is also broken with this pair and it looks like a sub 112.00 is possible. The only caveat with this pair is the CHF reaction if the ECB really reacts. The other major point to keep in your mind is what happens if the SNB gets the nod from the ECB that they are going to act to “ease” in the markets with a host of measures. Will the SNB raise the floor with the EUR/CHF from 1.2000 to say 1.2500…there could be great fireworks?\r\n\r\nSo with the divergences in play at the moment, keeping your eyes glued to the JPY pairs could be a profitable move to make. Obviously, I think that USD/JPY should lead but do NOT rule of the EUR/JPY driving matters. The Eurozone is a massive trading partner with Japan and, if there are moves in the EUR driven by political sound-bytes of “numpty” European politicians sticking their noses in the debate, and, subsequently the ECB officials having to fiercely defend their alleged independence against what was said, then the usual mixed messages out of the Eurozone will rule the day causing volatility and confusion. So be careful of this happening, you know the history of the Eurozone; never a dull moment and a potential for major F**K ups.\r\n\r\nI do believe however that we have a great $$$ opportunity with these JPY pairs. My trade set-ups are later for PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>4. TRADER TOPICS:</strong>\r\n\r\nI am in the middle of writing quite an in-depth piece on why I trade with multiple brokers.\r\n\r\nI had hoped to have this ready for this weeks blog but sadly I am not 100% happy, and, more importantly, I am in the final negotiation stages which if successful will allow my readers to obtain special deals with my preferred brokers. It may take a week or two to finalize. If it not finalized by next week, I will add a piece about TRADING PSYCHOLOGY instead until my broker review can be released.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>5. MY CURRENT LIVE TRADES:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>FLASH TRADES:</strong>\r\n\r\nFT106\r\nNZD/USD\r\nShort\r\nCost Average / Entry Level: 0.8533\r\nStop Loss: 0.8750\r\nLimit / Target: 0.8400\r\nWeekly Closing Price: 0.8226\r\nPosition: -93 pips\r\n\r\n<strong>RADAR TRADES:</strong>\r\n\r\nRT75\r\nEUR/GBP\r\nShort\r\nCost Average / Entry Level: 0.8140\r\nStop Loss: 0.8200\r\nLimit / Target: 0.7980\r\nWeekly Closing Price: 0.8143\r\nPosition: -3 pips<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>FUNDAMENTAL TRADES:</strong>\r\n\r\nFUN14\r\nGBP/NZD\r\n(This trade is hedged from -150 pips)\r\nLong\r\nCost Average: 1.9950\r\nStop Loss: 1.9000\r\nLimit / Target: 2.2350\r\nWeekly Closing Price: 1.9470\r\nPosition: - 480 pips\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>6. TRADES THAT ARE ON MY RADAR:</strong>\r\n\r\nThis week I have included the limit orders that I have already placed with brokers. So to confirm all the set-ups listed below are with my brokers on a 14- day expiration basis.\r\n\r\nYou will notice that I am now placing limit orders in the USD majors quite a margin away from the current market. These entry levels are at key points in my opinion, and, that more importantly these levels are at areas, I fell that could be reached, if we did see a market squeeze, should the USD get ”taken to the cleaners” in the event that we get a market moving USD/JPY fall.\r\n\r\nAUD/NZD\r\nLong at: (above the breakout point) at 1.0950.\r\nStop Loss 1.0750\r\nLimit 1.1350\r\n\r\nGBP/CHF\r\nLong at: 1.5020\r\nStop Loss: 1.4918\r\nTarget / Limit 1.5380\r\n\r\nEUR/USD\r\nShort at 1.3775\r\nStop Loss: 1.3850\r\nTarget / Limit: 1.3450\r\n\r\nGBP/USD\r\nShort at 1.6980\r\nStop Loss: 1.7050\r\nTarget / Limit: 1.6500\r\n\r\nAUD/USD\r\nShort at 0.9430\r\nStop Loss: 0.9480\r\nTarget / Limit: 0.8500\r\n\r\nNZD/USD\r\nShort at 0.8740\r\nStop Loss: 0.8790\r\nTarget / Limit: 0.8000\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF\r\nLong at 0.8900\r\nStop Loss: 8850\r\nTarget / Limit: 0.9250\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY\r\nShort at 102.10\r\nStop Loss: 102.50\r\nTarget / Limit: 98.00\r\n\r\nEUR/JPY\r\nShort at 139.50\r\nStop Loss: 140.50\r\nTarget / Limit: 136.25\r\n\r\nCHF/JPY\r\nShort at 114.20\r\nStop Loss: 114.85\r\nTarget / Limit: 110.00\r\n\r\nI am also looking at CAD pairs but the strength of the CAD concerns me a little. The EUR/CAD is playing out a Head and Shoulders pattern, but I am not certain about it. The AUD/CAD and NZD/CAD look like they could both fall quite aggressively.\r\n\r\nSo along with the CAD pairs I will tackle the CHF pairs as well during the week in the DAILY FX POST. I will have a better handle on matters once the week begins for now, I do not feel comfortable going into print.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>7. LOOKING FORWARD…THE KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3693.</strong> A nice drop to 1.3650, then we had a squeeze back to 1.3725. The momentum is to the downside, but I really would like a move higher back to 1.3800 to short again. Not sure that we will get this. Therefore the immediate range to keep ones eyes on is 1.3650 to 1.3775.\r\n\r\n<strong>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.601</strong>. To close the week we are parked at resistance at 1.6820. Please can we try 1.7000 again so I can short again? Not sure how this pair is going to move, I think Carney really spooked both the cable bulls and bears last week. The range is 1.6730 to 1.6920.\r\n\r\n<strong>AUD/USD: Closing Price 0.9359</strong>. Practically a zero overall move in the last seven days, that must please the RBA. We are locked in a very tight range and have been most of the past week: Support is at 0.915 and resistance is at 0.9410.\r\n\r\n<strong>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8626</strong>. Like the Aussie the NZD/USD has been trapped in a tight range. 0.800 to 0.8695, unless we break free it will be boring. This pair will always threaten to do something but of late it has been the equivalent of the “Boy who cried wolf”.\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.0860.</strong> The recent CAD strength has surprised me a little and as a result I am not 100% confident in this pair anymore, for the time being anyhow. A few weeks ago I was thinking 1.1600 here we come, but that looks like a bit of a dream at the moment, and far fetched at that! I am concentrating on 1.0800 to 1.0910 for now.\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.8926</strong>. We are trying to break out and talk of the SNB raising the floor limit in the EUR/CHF to 1.2500 ahead of the next ECB Press Conference is keeping interest high in this pair. Earlier last week I finally exited my 6 week trade of this pair long, I made good $$$. If we break 0.8960 to the long side I think that there is a chance of a squeeze and I may have to chase, which is something I do not normally do. I have a set-up in the “TRADES ON MY RADAR SECTION”, lets hope that that entry triggers instead. I see support pretty good at 0.8860 / 0.8900 and resistance is 0.8960.\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/JPY: Closing Price 101.49. </strong>I think we are on the fringes of a huge break to the down side. Support is at 101.20 and resistance at 102.10.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>8. MAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:</strong>\r\n\r\nSUNDAY: AUD – RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: JPY – Monetary Policy Statement and BOJ Press Conference.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – Janet Yellen Speaks and FOMC Meeting Minutes.\r\nWEDNESDAY: CNY – HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMi.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: EUR – Flash PMI’s (Germany and France).\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: EUR – German IFO Business Climate.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>9. FINAL THOUGHTS:</strong>\r\n\r\nThis coming week has the potential for sparks to fly. Of course, that does not mean that it will happen, but the potential is there.\r\n\r\nOur trading guards have to be up (like shields in Star Trek). I am very conscious that false breakouts and false breakdowns will still rule the day as the markets are twitchy. No one wants to be the one to pull the trigger first and this choppy market style will remain until a catalyst is found to do the damage required. I think that it may be the JPY, but that is just what is on mind right now.\r\n\r\nKeep your eyes and ears on the Eurozone as well. Plus whatever is done in Frankfurt will have a direct line access to Zurich and the SNB.\r\n\r\nThere is enough therefore to keep the brain active this week.\r\n\r\nTake care and good luck. Be careful with position sizes.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nSaturday May 17th 2014\r\n\r\nEMAIL / FOLLOW ME AT:\r\npremiumservice@weeklyfxdrivethru.com\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\nTwitter: @ThePremService\r\nGoogle+/scottpickering\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','MOVE OVER EUR…IT’S GOING TO BE ABOUT THE JPY FIRST','','publish','open','closed','','move-eurits-going-jpy-first','','','2014-05-17 08:27:25','2014-05-17 13:27:25','',0,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?post_type=member_posts&#038;p=3698',0,'member_posts','',0),(3699,1,'2014-05-17 08:25:21','2014-05-17 13:25:21','<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>1. INTRODUCTION:</strong>\r\n\r\nFrom a personal trading week, it was a really good one. Somehow though I am still not feeling bouncy, bouncy, bouncy with the joys of Spring and the Forex Markets.\r\n\r\nTrading psychology is on of the most important aspects to consider in trading. FEAR and GREED dominate everything and at the moment, using self-diagnosis, I believe that I am in FEAR MOMENT with regards to my trading. I am so used to false breakouts and false breakdowns, that I simply do not want to give hard earned $$$$ back to the brokers. I am probably not allowing profitable trades to develop to their full potential. Given the “Chop Fest” that we are dealing with at the moment and if it’s not a chop fest, it’s very tight ranges almost stagnation, am I wrong to trade the way that I am?\r\n\r\nI am banking $$$, so I should not complain, but am I maximizing the profit? I am beating myself up at times and perhaps I should just take a step back and take a macro view of what is going on, and, maybe it’s not so bad.\r\n\r\nLooking at the worldwide currency trading market for a moment, from a very macro level: -\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>There are according to reports from brokers less live accounts being used right now by individual traders like you and me.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>The banking Forex operations are either losing money or not turning the huge profits that they were before (Royal Bank of Scotland and Credit Suisse).</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>Most of the major Forex institutions are scaling back, there are staff being fired, suspended or on gardening leave.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>The top 5 banks in currency dealing worldwide now control over 60% of the market, which now trades a mere $5.3tn per day.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>The overall market operation worldwide in currency trading is being squeezed as the changes happen.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>High Frequency trading (HFT) is never far from the headlines in any marketplace at the moment.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>Things have changed and are changing all the time as the market evolves</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nMy point is, at my micro level, if the smaller banking operations involved in Forex trading are suffering, and, if I am making my few dollars each day, I should be a happy camper! I suppose I will have to put it down to self imposed pressure to always do a little bit better.\r\n\r\nDuring the week, the Eurozone debate, and as well predicted last week, what measures are open to the ECB in June has captivated journalists all over Europe. The one agreement is that, Draghi has backed himself into a corner so he has to act and do something. If he fails to act he will lose a huge amount of credibility.\r\n\r\nMy mate “Wheeler the Dealer” Governor of the RBNZ failed to talk down the Kiwi on two occasions during the past week and so it remains above key support at 0.8600, but it has been trading heavy and every now and then getting little bounces to keep it elevated. As long as equities remain in an uptrend the NZD will always be supported.\r\n\r\nCarney BOE Governor, didn\'t talk about interest rate increases in the UK and that stopped the cable dead in it’s tracks to 1.7000 for me to activate my short.\r\n\r\nLooking forward I think we are going to find that USD/JPY is going to dominate Forex matters. The support level of 101.20 is crucial. We are flirting with it hovering 20-30 pips above and trading in a very tight range. Yesterday (Friday) it was in a 31 pips trading range...hold your breath the JPY could be the one currency that is going to push and pull the Forex market in the coming sessions.\r\n\r\nWe have a couple of weeks before the “Draghi Roadshow” hits the markets so the filler will not be the EUR/USD but the USD/JPY and it’s cross-rates.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>2. TRADING SUMMARY:</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>RADAR, FLASH and FUNDAMENTAL TRADES\r\n</strong><strong>MAY 2014 and YEAR to date:</strong></p>\r\nBelow I show the up to date performances for my various trading styles. Full excel spreadsheets are in the subscriber area of the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/PREM-SERVICE-PROFITS1-17052014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-3692\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/PREM-SERVICE-PROFITS1-17052014.png\" alt=\"PREM SERVICE PROFITS1 17052014\" width=\"442\" height=\"424\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/PREM-SERVICE-PROFITS-2-17052014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-3693\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/PREM-SERVICE-PROFITS-2-17052014.png\" alt=\"PREM SERVICE PROFITS 2 17052014\" width=\"462\" height=\"418\" /></a>\r\n\r\nThe above examples are for illustration purposes only:\r\n\r\nThe profitability examples detailed above are based solely upon single lot trading, regardless of lot type. If multiple lot sizes are traded the profitability margins will be different than those shown.\r\n\r\nJust to provide more information so you understand where I am coming from with the risk / reward statements above. All of my trades are of different sizes and different size lot types. The above does not reflect the actual trading performance, but it does show you the direction of the performance of the trades placed.\r\n\r\nI like to add to trades, profits are taken as the trade progresses and my overall cost average moves several times. All of my trades are of different lot styles. I trade a mixture of micro lots, mini lots and standard lots across my brokers.\r\n\r\nThe above results simply display your profit or loss if you placed a single lot trade on all the set-ups suggested and did nothing else.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>3. THE FUNDAMENTAL TRADERS OVERVIEW:</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>MOVE OVER EUR…IT’S GOING TO BE ABOUT THE JPY FIRST</strong></p>\r\nI eluded to it earlier in the blog and, despite closing out all my short JPY positions yesterday for over a big +200 pips with having two great bites of profit on these trades in two days, I am looking to re-enter short early next week.\r\n\r\nIf you recall a few months ago the JPY had a day or two where it controlled all things Forex. The USD was handed it’s butt to itself on a plate then kicked to the left and then to the right. As the USD/JPY collapsed, the EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD squeezed high.\r\n\r\nI want the same to happen again, enabling the following: -\r\n\r\nShort EUR/USD at 1.3800\r\nShort GBP/USD at 1.7000\r\nShort AUD/USD at 0.9500\r\nShort NZD/USD at 0.8750\r\n\r\nThe writing is on the wall. There is a lack of consistent correlation in the USD/JPY with the S&amp;P. The S&amp;P and Dow Jones are touching all-time highs and the JPY is falling. U.S. Bonds are ripping higher both 10 and 30 year, this is keeping the USD/JPY pressured. The USD/JPY is skirting key support at 101.20 and the cross-rates are on the precipice of huge falls.\r\n\r\nI have charts of my favourite three JPY trades. The USD/JPY, CHF/JPY and EUR/JPY.\r\n\r\nOne of the great things in trading the JPY pairs is that round numbers seem to hold some sort of fascination for JPY traders. Once a round number is broken to me it feels like a directional / momentum confirmation has been verified.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/USDJPY-DAILY-17052014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-3688\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/USDJPY-DAILY-17052014-1024x514.png\" alt=\"USDJPY DAILY 17052014\" width=\"1024\" height=\"514\" /></a>\r\n\r\nFrom the chart above you can see how important 101.20 is as support. We have broken trend line support already. I think that rather than Fibonacci levels the horizontal supports will offer better support levels if it moves lower.\r\n\r\nI do think that this pair could hit 98.00 (I will have this Monthly chart for PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers in Monday’s DAILY FX POST, if we break down)\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/EURJPY-DAILY-17052014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-3689\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/EURJPY-DAILY-17052014-1024x514.png\" alt=\"EURJPY DAILY 17052014\" width=\"1024\" height=\"514\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nLooking at the EUR/JPY chart above, you can see that we are well below trend line support. I think we are going to re-trace all the way to 136.25 with this pair, maybe even further, if Draghi extracts the digit. 138.50 is the next support level.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/CHFJPY-DAILY-17052014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-3690\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/CHFJPY-DAILY-17052014-1024x514.png\" alt=\"CHFJPY DAILY 17052014\" width=\"1024\" height=\"514\" /></a>\r\n\r\nThe trend line support is also broken with this pair and it looks like a sub 112.00 is possible. The only caveat with this pair is the CHF reaction if the ECB really reacts. The other major point to keep in your mind is what happens if the SNB gets the nod from the ECB that they are going to act to “ease” in the markets with a host of measures. Will the SNB raise the floor with the EUR/CHF from 1.2000 to say 1.2500…there could be great fireworks?\r\n\r\nSo with the divergences in play at the moment, keeping your eyes glued to the JPY pairs could be a profitable move to make. Obviously, I think that USD/JPY should lead but do NOT rule of the EUR/JPY driving matters. The Eurozone is a massive trading partner with Japan and, if there are moves in the EUR driven by political sound-bytes of “numpty” European politicians sticking their noses in the debate, and, subsequently the ECB officials having to fiercely defend their alleged independence against what was said, then the usual mixed messages out of the Eurozone will rule the day causing volatility and confusion. So be careful of this happening, you know the history of the Eurozone; never a dull moment and a potential for major F**K ups.\r\n\r\nI do believe however that we have a great $$$ opportunity with these JPY pairs. My trade set-ups are later for PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>4. TRADER TOPICS:</strong>\r\n\r\nI am in the middle of writing quite an in-depth piece on why I trade with multiple brokers.\r\n\r\nI had hoped to have this ready for this weeks blog but sadly I am not 100% happy, and, more importantly, I am in the final negotiation stages which if successful will allow my readers to obtain special deals with my preferred brokers. It may take a week or two to finalize. If it not finalized by next week, I will add a piece about TRADING PSYCHOLOGY instead until my broker review can be released.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>5. MY CURRENT LIVE TRADES:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>FLASH TRADES:</strong>\r\n\r\nFT106\r\nNZD/USD\r\nShort\r\nCost Average / Entry Level: 0.8533\r\nStop Loss: 0.8750\r\nLimit / Target: 0.8400\r\nWeekly Closing Price: 0.8226\r\nPosition: -93 pips\r\n\r\n<strong>RADAR TRADES:</strong>\r\n\r\nRT75\r\nEURGBP\r\nShort\r\nCost Average / Entry Level: 0.8140\r\nStop Loss: 0.8200\r\nLimit / Target: 0.7980\r\nWeekly Closing Price: 0.8143\r\nPosition: -3 pips<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>FUNDAMENTAL TRADES:</strong>\r\n\r\nFUN14\r\nGBP/NZD\r\n(This trade is hedged from -150 pips)\r\nLong\r\nCost Average: 1.9950\r\nStop Loss: 1.9000\r\nLimit / Target: 2.2350\r\nWeekly Closing Price: 1.9470\r\nPosition: - 480 pips\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>6. TRADES THAT ARE ON MY RADAR:</strong>\r\n\r\nThis week I have included the limit orders that I have already placed with brokers. So to confirm all the set-ups listed below are with my brokers on a 14- day expiration basis.\r\n\r\nYou will notice that I am now placing limit orders in the USD majors quite a margin away from the current market. These entry levels are at key points in my opinion, and, that more importantly these levels are at areas, I fell that could be reached, if we did see a market squeeze, should the USD get ”taken to the cleaners” in the event that we get a market moving USD/JPY fall.\r\n\r\nAUD/NZD\r\nLong at: (above the breakout point) at 1.0950.\r\nStop Loss 1.0750\r\nLimit 1.1350\r\n\r\nGBP/CHF\r\nLong at: 1.5020\r\nStop Loss: 1.4918\r\nTarget / Limit 1.5380\r\n\r\nEUR/USD\r\nShort at 1.3775\r\nStop Loss: 1.3850\r\nTarget / Limit: 1.3450\r\n\r\nGBP/USD\r\nShort at 1.6980\r\nStop Loss: 1.7050\r\nTarget / Limit: 1.6500\r\n\r\nAUD/USD\r\nShort at 0.9430\r\nStop Loss: 0.9480\r\nTarget / Limit: 0.8500\r\n\r\nNZD/USD\r\nShort at 0.8740\r\nStop Loss: 0.8790\r\nTarget / Limit: 0.8000\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF\r\nLong at 0.8900\r\nStop Loss: 8850\r\nTarget / Limit: 0.9250\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY\r\nShort at 102.10\r\nStop Loss: 102.50\r\nTarget / Limit: 98.00\r\n\r\nEUR/JPY\r\nShort at 139.50\r\nStop Loss: 140.50\r\nTarget / Limit: 136.25\r\n\r\nCHF/JPY\r\nShort at 114.20\r\nStop Loss: 114.85\r\nTarget / Limit: 110.00\r\n\r\nI am also looking at CAD pairs but the strength of the CAD concerns me a little. The EUR/CAD is playing out a Head and Shoulders pattern, but I am not certain about it. The AUD/CAD and NZD/CAD look like they could both fall quite aggressively.\r\n\r\nSo along with the CAD pairs I will tackle the CHF pairs as well during the week in the DAILY FX POST. I will have a better handle on matters once the week begins for now, I do not feel comfortable going into print.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>7. LOOKING FORWARD…THE KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3693.</strong> A nice drop to 1.3650, then we had a squeeze back to 1.3725. The momentum is to the downside, but I really would like a move higher back to 1.3800 to short again. Not sure that we will get this. Therefore the immediate range to keep ones eyes on is 1.3650 to 1.3775.\r\n\r\n<strong>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.601</strong>. To close the week we are parked at resistance at 1.6820. Please can we try 1.7000 again so I can short again? Not sure how this pair is going to move, I think Carney really spooked both the cable bulls and bears last week. The range is 1.6730 to 1.6920.\r\n\r\n<strong>AUD/USD: Closing Price 0.9359</strong>. Practically a zero overall move in the last seven days, that must please the RBA. We are locked in a very tight range and have been most of the past week: Support is at 0.915 and resistance is at 0.9410.\r\n\r\n<strong>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8626</strong>. Like the Aussie the NZD/USD has been trapped in a tight range. 0.800 to 0.8695, unless we break free it will be boring. This pair will always threaten to do something but of late it has been the equivalent of the “Boy who cried wolf”.\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.0860.</strong> The recent CAD strength has surprised me a little and as a result I am not 100% confident in this pair anymore, for the time being anyhow. A few weeks ago I was thinking 1.1600 here we come, but that looks like a bit of a dream at the moment, and far fetched at that! I am concentrating on 1.0800 to 1.0910 for now.\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.8926</strong>. We are trying to break out and talk of the SNB raising the floor limit in the EUR/CHF to 1.2500 ahead of the next ECB Press Conference is keeping interest high in this pair. Earlier last week I finally exited my 6 week trade of this pair long, I made good $$$. If we break 0.8960 to the long side I think that there is a chance of a squeeze and I may have to chase, which is something I do not normally do. I have a set-up in the “TRADES ON MY RADAR SECTION”, lets hope that that entry triggers instead. I see support pretty good at 0.8860 / 0.8900 and resistance is 0.8960.\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/JPY: Closing Price 101.49. </strong>I think we are on the fringes of a huge break to the down side. Support is at 101.20 and resistance at 102.10.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>8. MAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:</strong>\r\n\r\nSUNDAY: AUD – RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: JPY – Monetary Policy Statement and BOJ Press Conference.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – Janet Yellen Speaks and FOMC Meeting Minutes.\r\nWEDNESDAY: CNY – HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMi.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: EUR – Flash PMI’s (Germany and France).\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: EUR – German IFO Business Climate.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>9. FINAL THOUGHTS:</strong>\r\n\r\nThis coming week has the potential for sparks to fly. Of course, that does not mean that it will happen, but the potential is there.\r\n\r\nOur trading guards have to be up (like shields in Star Trek). I am very conscious that false breakouts and false breakdowns will still rule the day as the markets are twitchy. No one wants to be the one to pull the trigger first and this choppy market style will remain until a catalyst is found to do the damage required. I think that it may be the JPY, but that is just what is on mind right now.\r\n\r\nKeep your eyes and ears on the Eurozone as well. Plus whatever is done in Frankfurt will have a direct line access to Zurich and the SNB.\r\n\r\nThere is enough therefore to keep the brain active this week.\r\n\r\nTake care and good luck. Be careful with position sizes.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nSaturday May 17th 2014\r\n\r\nEMAIL / FOLLOW ME AT:\r\npremiumservice@weeklyfxdrivethru.com\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\nTwitter: @ThePremService\r\nGoogle+/scottpickering\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','MOVE OVER EUR…IT’S GOING TO BE ABOUT THE JPY FIRST','','inherit','open','closed','','3698-revision-v1','','','2014-05-17 08:25:21','2014-05-17 13:25:21','',3698,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/3698-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(3700,1,'2014-05-17 08:27:25','2014-05-17 13:27:25','<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>1. INTRODUCTION:</strong>\r\n\r\nFrom a personal trading week, it was a really good one. Somehow though I am still not feeling bouncy, bouncy, bouncy with the joys of Spring and the Forex Markets.\r\n\r\nTrading psychology is on of the most important aspects to consider in trading. FEAR and GREED dominate everything and at the moment, using self-diagnosis, I believe that I am in FEAR MOMENT with regards to my trading. I am so used to false breakouts and false breakdowns, that I simply do not want to give hard earned $$$$ back to the brokers. I am probably not allowing profitable trades to develop to their full potential. Given the “Chop Fest” that we are dealing with at the moment and if it’s not a chop fest, it’s very tight ranges almost stagnation, am I wrong to trade the way that I am?\r\n\r\nI am banking $$$, so I should not complain, but am I maximizing the profit? I am beating myself up at times and perhaps I should just take a step back and take a macro view of what is going on, and, maybe it’s not so bad.\r\n\r\nLooking at the worldwide currency trading market for a moment, from a very macro level: -\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>There are according to reports from brokers less live accounts being used right now by individual traders like you and me.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>The banking Forex operations are either losing money or not turning the huge profits that they were before (Royal Bank of Scotland and Credit Suisse).</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>Most of the major Forex institutions are scaling back, there are staff being fired, suspended or on gardening leave.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>The top 5 banks in currency dealing worldwide now control over 60% of the market, which now trades a mere $5.3tn per day.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>The overall market operation worldwide in currency trading is being squeezed as the changes happen.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>High Frequency trading (HFT) is never far from the headlines in any marketplace at the moment.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>Things have changed and are changing all the time as the market evolves</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nMy point is, at my micro level, if the smaller banking operations involved in Forex trading are suffering, and, if I am making my few dollars each day, I should be a happy camper! I suppose I will have to put it down to self imposed pressure to always do a little bit better.\r\n\r\nDuring the week, the Eurozone debate, and as well predicted last week, what measures are open to the ECB in June has captivated journalists all over Europe. The one agreement is that, Draghi has backed himself into a corner so he has to act and do something. If he fails to act he will lose a huge amount of credibility.\r\n\r\nMy mate “Wheeler the Dealer” Governor of the RBNZ failed to talk down the Kiwi on two occasions during the past week and so it remains above key support at 0.8600, but it has been trading heavy and every now and then getting little bounces to keep it elevated. As long as equities remain in an uptrend the NZD will always be supported.\r\n\r\nCarney BOE Governor, didn\'t talk about interest rate increases in the UK and that stopped the cable dead in it’s tracks to 1.7000 for me to activate my short.\r\n\r\nLooking forward I think we are going to find that USD/JPY is going to dominate Forex matters. The support level of 101.20 is crucial. We are flirting with it hovering 20-30 pips above and trading in a very tight range. Yesterday (Friday) it was in a 31 pips trading range...hold your breath the JPY could be the one currency that is going to push and pull the Forex market in the coming sessions.\r\n\r\nWe have a couple of weeks before the “Draghi Roadshow” hits the markets so the filler will not be the EUR/USD but the USD/JPY and it’s cross-rates.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>2. TRADING SUMMARY:</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>RADAR, FLASH and FUNDAMENTAL TRADES\r\n</strong><strong>MAY 2014 and YEAR to date:</strong></p>\r\nBelow I show the up to date performances for my various trading styles. Full excel spreadsheets are in the subscriber area of the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/PREM-SERVICE-PROFITS1-17052014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-3692\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/PREM-SERVICE-PROFITS1-17052014.png\" alt=\"PREM SERVICE PROFITS1 17052014\" width=\"442\" height=\"424\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/PREM-SERVICE-PROFITS-2-17052014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-3693\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/PREM-SERVICE-PROFITS-2-17052014.png\" alt=\"PREM SERVICE PROFITS 2 17052014\" width=\"462\" height=\"418\" /></a>\r\n\r\nThe above examples are for illustration purposes only:\r\n\r\nThe profitability examples detailed above are based solely upon single lot trading, regardless of lot type. If multiple lot sizes are traded the profitability margins will be different than those shown.\r\n\r\nJust to provide more information so you understand where I am coming from with the risk / reward statements above. All of my trades are of different sizes and different size lot types. The above does not reflect the actual trading performance, but it does show you the direction of the performance of the trades placed.\r\n\r\nI like to add to trades, profits are taken as the trade progresses and my overall cost average moves several times. All of my trades are of different lot styles. I trade a mixture of micro lots, mini lots and standard lots across my brokers.\r\n\r\nThe above results simply display your profit or loss if you placed a single lot trade on all the set-ups suggested and did nothing else.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>3. THE FUNDAMENTAL TRADERS OVERVIEW:</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>MOVE OVER EUR…IT’S GOING TO BE ABOUT THE JPY FIRST</strong></p>\r\nI eluded to it earlier in the blog and, despite closing out all my short JPY positions yesterday for over a big +200 pips with having two great bites of profit on these trades in two days, I am looking to re-enter short early next week.\r\n\r\nIf you recall a few months ago the JPY had a day or two where it controlled all things Forex. The USD was handed it’s butt to itself on a plate then kicked to the left and then to the right. As the USD/JPY collapsed, the EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD squeezed high.\r\n\r\nI want the same to happen again, enabling the following: -\r\n\r\nShort EUR/USD at 1.3800\r\nShort GBP/USD at 1.7000\r\nShort AUD/USD at 0.9500\r\nShort NZD/USD at 0.8750\r\n\r\nThe writing is on the wall. There is a lack of consistent correlation in the USD/JPY with the S&amp;P. The S&amp;P and Dow Jones are touching all-time highs and the JPY is falling. U.S. Bonds are ripping higher both 10 and 30 year, this is keeping the USD/JPY pressured. The USD/JPY is skirting key support at 101.20 and the cross-rates are on the precipice of huge falls.\r\n\r\nI have charts of my favourite three JPY trades. The USD/JPY, CHF/JPY and EUR/JPY.\r\n\r\nOne of the great things in trading the JPY pairs is that round numbers seem to hold some sort of fascination for JPY traders. Once a round number is broken to me it feels like a directional / momentum confirmation has been verified.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/USDJPY-DAILY-17052014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-3688\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/USDJPY-DAILY-17052014-1024x514.png\" alt=\"USDJPY DAILY 17052014\" width=\"1024\" height=\"514\" /></a>\r\n\r\nFrom the chart above you can see how important 101.20 is as support. We have broken trend line support already. I think that rather than Fibonacci levels the horizontal supports will offer better support levels if it moves lower.\r\n\r\nI do think that this pair could hit 98.00 (I will have this Monthly chart for PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers in Monday’s DAILY FX POST, if we break down)\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/EURJPY-DAILY-17052014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-3689\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/EURJPY-DAILY-17052014-1024x514.png\" alt=\"EURJPY DAILY 17052014\" width=\"1024\" height=\"514\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nLooking at the EUR/JPY chart above, you can see that we are well below trend line support. I think we are going to re-trace all the way to 136.25 with this pair, maybe even further, if Draghi extracts the digit. 138.50 is the next support level.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/CHFJPY-DAILY-17052014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-3690\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/CHFJPY-DAILY-17052014-1024x514.png\" alt=\"CHFJPY DAILY 17052014\" width=\"1024\" height=\"514\" /></a>\r\n\r\nThe trend line support is also broken with this pair and it looks like a sub 112.00 is possible. The only caveat with this pair is the CHF reaction if the ECB really reacts. The other major point to keep in your mind is what happens if the SNB gets the nod from the ECB that they are going to act to “ease” in the markets with a host of measures. Will the SNB raise the floor with the EUR/CHF from 1.2000 to say 1.2500…there could be great fireworks?\r\n\r\nSo with the divergences in play at the moment, keeping your eyes glued to the JPY pairs could be a profitable move to make. Obviously, I think that USD/JPY should lead but do NOT rule of the EUR/JPY driving matters. The Eurozone is a massive trading partner with Japan and, if there are moves in the EUR driven by political sound-bytes of “numpty” European politicians sticking their noses in the debate, and, subsequently the ECB officials having to fiercely defend their alleged independence against what was said, then the usual mixed messages out of the Eurozone will rule the day causing volatility and confusion. So be careful of this happening, you know the history of the Eurozone; never a dull moment and a potential for major F**K ups.\r\n\r\nI do believe however that we have a great $$$ opportunity with these JPY pairs. My trade set-ups are later for PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>4. TRADER TOPICS:</strong>\r\n\r\nI am in the middle of writing quite an in-depth piece on why I trade with multiple brokers.\r\n\r\nI had hoped to have this ready for this weeks blog but sadly I am not 100% happy, and, more importantly, I am in the final negotiation stages which if successful will allow my readers to obtain special deals with my preferred brokers. It may take a week or two to finalize. If it not finalized by next week, I will add a piece about TRADING PSYCHOLOGY instead until my broker review can be released.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>5. MY CURRENT LIVE TRADES:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>FLASH TRADES:</strong>\r\n\r\nFT106\r\nNZD/USD\r\nShort\r\nCost Average / Entry Level: 0.8533\r\nStop Loss: 0.8750\r\nLimit / Target: 0.8400\r\nWeekly Closing Price: 0.8226\r\nPosition: -93 pips\r\n\r\n<strong>RADAR TRADES:</strong>\r\n\r\nRT75\r\nEUR/GBP\r\nShort\r\nCost Average / Entry Level: 0.8140\r\nStop Loss: 0.8200\r\nLimit / Target: 0.7980\r\nWeekly Closing Price: 0.8143\r\nPosition: -3 pips<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>FUNDAMENTAL TRADES:</strong>\r\n\r\nFUN14\r\nGBP/NZD\r\n(This trade is hedged from -150 pips)\r\nLong\r\nCost Average: 1.9950\r\nStop Loss: 1.9000\r\nLimit / Target: 2.2350\r\nWeekly Closing Price: 1.9470\r\nPosition: - 480 pips\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>6. TRADES THAT ARE ON MY RADAR:</strong>\r\n\r\nThis week I have included the limit orders that I have already placed with brokers. So to confirm all the set-ups listed below are with my brokers on a 14- day expiration basis.\r\n\r\nYou will notice that I am now placing limit orders in the USD majors quite a margin away from the current market. These entry levels are at key points in my opinion, and, that more importantly these levels are at areas, I fell that could be reached, if we did see a market squeeze, should the USD get ”taken to the cleaners” in the event that we get a market moving USD/JPY fall.\r\n\r\nAUD/NZD\r\nLong at: (above the breakout point) at 1.0950.\r\nStop Loss 1.0750\r\nLimit 1.1350\r\n\r\nGBP/CHF\r\nLong at: 1.5020\r\nStop Loss: 1.4918\r\nTarget / Limit 1.5380\r\n\r\nEUR/USD\r\nShort at 1.3775\r\nStop Loss: 1.3850\r\nTarget / Limit: 1.3450\r\n\r\nGBP/USD\r\nShort at 1.6980\r\nStop Loss: 1.7050\r\nTarget / Limit: 1.6500\r\n\r\nAUD/USD\r\nShort at 0.9430\r\nStop Loss: 0.9480\r\nTarget / Limit: 0.8500\r\n\r\nNZD/USD\r\nShort at 0.8740\r\nStop Loss: 0.8790\r\nTarget / Limit: 0.8000\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF\r\nLong at 0.8900\r\nStop Loss: 8850\r\nTarget / Limit: 0.9250\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY\r\nShort at 102.10\r\nStop Loss: 102.50\r\nTarget / Limit: 98.00\r\n\r\nEUR/JPY\r\nShort at 139.50\r\nStop Loss: 140.50\r\nTarget / Limit: 136.25\r\n\r\nCHF/JPY\r\nShort at 114.20\r\nStop Loss: 114.85\r\nTarget / Limit: 110.00\r\n\r\nI am also looking at CAD pairs but the strength of the CAD concerns me a little. The EUR/CAD is playing out a Head and Shoulders pattern, but I am not certain about it. The AUD/CAD and NZD/CAD look like they could both fall quite aggressively.\r\n\r\nSo along with the CAD pairs I will tackle the CHF pairs as well during the week in the DAILY FX POST. I will have a better handle on matters once the week begins for now, I do not feel comfortable going into print.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>7. LOOKING FORWARD…THE KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3693.</strong> A nice drop to 1.3650, then we had a squeeze back to 1.3725. The momentum is to the downside, but I really would like a move higher back to 1.3800 to short again. Not sure that we will get this. Therefore the immediate range to keep ones eyes on is 1.3650 to 1.3775.\r\n\r\n<strong>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.601</strong>. To close the week we are parked at resistance at 1.6820. Please can we try 1.7000 again so I can short again? Not sure how this pair is going to move, I think Carney really spooked both the cable bulls and bears last week. The range is 1.6730 to 1.6920.\r\n\r\n<strong>AUD/USD: Closing Price 0.9359</strong>. Practically a zero overall move in the last seven days, that must please the RBA. We are locked in a very tight range and have been most of the past week: Support is at 0.915 and resistance is at 0.9410.\r\n\r\n<strong>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8626</strong>. Like the Aussie the NZD/USD has been trapped in a tight range. 0.800 to 0.8695, unless we break free it will be boring. This pair will always threaten to do something but of late it has been the equivalent of the “Boy who cried wolf”.\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.0860.</strong> The recent CAD strength has surprised me a little and as a result I am not 100% confident in this pair anymore, for the time being anyhow. A few weeks ago I was thinking 1.1600 here we come, but that looks like a bit of a dream at the moment, and far fetched at that! I am concentrating on 1.0800 to 1.0910 for now.\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.8926</strong>. We are trying to break out and talk of the SNB raising the floor limit in the EUR/CHF to 1.2500 ahead of the next ECB Press Conference is keeping interest high in this pair. Earlier last week I finally exited my 6 week trade of this pair long, I made good $$$. If we break 0.8960 to the long side I think that there is a chance of a squeeze and I may have to chase, which is something I do not normally do. I have a set-up in the “TRADES ON MY RADAR SECTION”, lets hope that that entry triggers instead. I see support pretty good at 0.8860 / 0.8900 and resistance is 0.8960.\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/JPY: Closing Price 101.49. </strong>I think we are on the fringes of a huge break to the down side. Support is at 101.20 and resistance at 102.10.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>8. MAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:</strong>\r\n\r\nSUNDAY: AUD – RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: JPY – Monetary Policy Statement and BOJ Press Conference.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – Janet Yellen Speaks and FOMC Meeting Minutes.\r\nWEDNESDAY: CNY – HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMi.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: EUR – Flash PMI’s (Germany and France).\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: EUR – German IFO Business Climate.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>9. FINAL THOUGHTS:</strong>\r\n\r\nThis coming week has the potential for sparks to fly. Of course, that does not mean that it will happen, but the potential is there.\r\n\r\nOur trading guards have to be up (like shields in Star Trek). I am very conscious that false breakouts and false breakdowns will still rule the day as the markets are twitchy. No one wants to be the one to pull the trigger first and this choppy market style will remain until a catalyst is found to do the damage required. I think that it may be the JPY, but that is just what is on mind right now.\r\n\r\nKeep your eyes and ears on the Eurozone as well. Plus whatever is done in Frankfurt will have a direct line access to Zurich and the SNB.\r\n\r\nThere is enough therefore to keep the brain active this week.\r\n\r\nTake care and good luck. Be careful with position sizes.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nSaturday May 17th 2014\r\n\r\nEMAIL / FOLLOW ME AT:\r\npremiumservice@weeklyfxdrivethru.com\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\nTwitter: @ThePremService\r\nGoogle+/scottpickering\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','MOVE OVER EUR…IT’S GOING TO BE ABOUT THE JPY FIRST','','inherit','open','closed','','3698-revision-v1','','','2014-05-17 08:27:25','2014-05-17 13:27:25','',3698,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/3698-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),