<span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong> 1. INTRODUCTION:</strong></span>

There was a lot of news in the past week to get your teeth into regarding the forex market, and, it was without doubt the best forex trading week of 2013........well....it was for me anyway!

Central Banks reported left right and centre throughout the week but, Kuroda at the BOJ took centre stage and delivered more than the markets expected. Since I started trading currencies, this was the first time that I can recall that the BOJ actually delivered.

The BOJ press conference release moved all Yen pairs throughout the night in Asia and  it carried on through Europe and then carried on in the North American market. The USD/JPY moved about 300 pips from lows to highs on the day...fantastic. I really believe that there is a lot more to come, maybe not as much as some analysts are talking about, one TV pundit is talking in terms of a possible 110.00....that seems a bit much for me, but we have gone from 92.80 pre press conference to 97.75 yesterday....just short of 500 pips in two days.....wow!! This pair is definitely one not to step in front of or try to fade for sometime yet.....I think? Be very careful if you think you can pick a top and fade.

Compare the BOJ with Draghi's lack lustre performance at the ECB press conference it was "Chalk and Cheese". Personally I do not believe what he said or what was written in his pre-determined press release,or his statements during the question time section were the truth. I think he was very economical with the truth, and, at the end of the day all he wanted to create was a short covering rally in the EUR/USD. Going into the meeting the EUR was under pressure, in particular the EUR/USD. If a short covering was his goal, and I believe it was, he achieved his goal but the effects will only be short lived in my opinion.

All in all, a great personal week I took great pips long the USD/JPY and some great profits on the EUR/USD short and GBP/USD short earlier in the week. We actually had a trend that stuck for 48 hours. Having said that there is still so much inter-market divergences it's a weird market place.

Look at Gold about to test $1525 soon below there I see $1300. Copper is breaking down, we are now below $3.40. I keep saying it, but when the S&amp;P finally stops grinding higher the Aussie, Kiwi and Loonie are going to rip like f**k. Personally, I want to be right in front of my machine when it happens. There should be huge pip moves in the offing and all I want it a big chunk of the middle of these moves. I do not need to pick tops or bottoms, just give me a chunk of the meat in the middle.

&nbsp;

<span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>2. THE VIEW FROM MY TRADING DESK:</strong></span>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>SO...DRAGHI THINKS ALL IS PROGRESSING WELL WITHIN THE EUROZONE...INTERESTING!!</strong></p>
Every month I always look forward to the ECB press conference. There is always something I find to take away, chew over and keep it in the back of my mind when placing trades. As a fundamental trader first, I find that this process works for me quite well.

Last Thursday, I found something lacking; something was not right at the ECB, and, certainly I thought that Draghi struggled. He basically sat there and delivered a speech that for me basically said nothing new, in fact, he appears to be saying the same thing month after month but he just changes the sentence order around. Pure regurgitation of the same old, same old! If you had landed from another planet without knowledge of the Eurozone and attended the ECB press conference you would think that listening to Draghi that the Eurozone is brilliant and all is well and wonderful. Was Draghi talking bull, camel or cow s**t.

I was really gobsmacked...we had seen in the past thirty days a series of Eurozone blunders that even I did not think was possible. The Eurozone economic performances country by country is just getting worse and worse and yet Draghi performed a modern-day "Pontius Pilate" on the whole affair. His tone was that everything was just fine and dandy. When he said that there was no real discussion on an interest rate cut, I thought bulls**t...... that was the cue for the markets to buy EUR. I firmly believe that this was what he wanted. A short covering rally to take the pressure off all the bad news that had been driving the EUR/USD towards 52 week lows. I just cannot believe that with the Eurozone periphery so far down the toilet economically, there was not a serious discussion to cut rates to help them.

Although I have written many, many times over the last few months that  the Eurozone is all about German intentions, needs and desires, and to hell with the other member states, I always thought that some balance would apply at some level, maybe the ECB.....alas not. For Christmas my best friend bought me a copy of the book by Harold James "Making The European Union".  It's heavy to follow as you can imagine. There are a few interesting sections....I just want to mention one line regarding the union.... "One country-One vote"...my arse it is. Germany contribute the bulk in $$$ and therefore the periphery counts for bugger all.

Over the last 30 days, the biggest screw up in the history of Eurozone communications took place over Cyprus. At the ECB press conference Draghi was questioned over his role and that of the ECB  in the f**k up. On the day  before the news broke from Cyprus to the world, the ECB and Draghi signed off on the original "Bail-in" that took money from all bank deposit accounts, including those with balances under EUR 100,000.00 which, were allegedly protected under Eurozone legislation. The day  the news was  released, there was a huge backlash, causing a huge backtrack from the Eurozone. Draghi glibly dismissed the backtrack by saying "The plan A" was not a smart idea....no kidding!! Draghi was not pushed at all by the attendees at the press conference. Personally, I thought this very poor and hugely disappointing considering the implications. Despite all the press communications and denials , followed by confirmations, we have a template for future Eurozone periphery "bail-ins". This is huge news whichever way you slice it......and it's definitely not good news for the Eurozone.  A great opportunity to press Draghi was missed. Nobody even raised the subject of the Cyprus financial controls in place on day-to-day banking that have now been extended twice. There will be a run on the banks as soon as these controls are lifted, that is unless the controls stay in place for a least a year or two allowing most accounts to deplete on a drip feed basis week by week. Eurozone officials have their heads so far up their own asses they cannot see, never mind hear the damage they are creating in Cyprus. The country is doomed......that is putting it mildly it's fu***d.

Moving away from Cyprus.......all in the Eurozone is wonderful according to Draghi. But what about France...??? The Finance Minister Moscovic is looking for leniency from Germany regarding the current account deficit. It looks like two years extra is required for France to come in line on limits set by Brussels, or should I have written Frankfurt or maybe even Berlin?  The poor French, God love them played their joker by stating that Germany needs a strong French presence in the Eurozone. As usual the French are having an inflated opinion of themselves in this regard. As far as Berlin is concerned France is also a periphery country. The love affair with Berlin ended as soon as Szarkozy was booted out and replaced by the lack lustre performer Hollande.

Spanish and Italian banks were in the news again with both Fitch and Moody's talking  about stresses and continuing negative outlooks.  So much debt in the Spanish banks revolves around social security indebtedness,I think the percentage is in the high 90s,  it's incredible and hugely concerning although little attention is being paid to it right now. The Spanish regions are still up the Swanee regarding funding. In Italy the political turmoil, or rather farce continues with Bersani saying anyone who wants to assume power right now is basically an idiot and stupid. The only good news out of Spain and Italy is that 10 year yields are now well and truly below 5% for both countries.

Continual poor GDP releases show that most of  the Eurozone is deep in recession. The Irish once again dropped back into the red. France's numbers are pitiful and as for Spain, Italy and Greece there are so many issues its not good news at all. There is no aid to promote growth to generate a positive GDP. Statements from the German Finance Minister Schaeuble do not help; his latest, classic quote... "Austerity is not incompatible with growth". Not so sure the Eurozone periphery would agree. As these politicians on acid?

I fear that in the Eurozone hundreds of thousands of people are in danger of losing money sometime in the future unless there is a growth strategy introduced. I know many of these issues are not directly under the remit of the ECB, Draghi uses the line "within limits" quite a bit. It was good news to hear a few months ago that he was acting in line with his responsibilities but we have moved on a great deal recently and I think Draghi's performance was a cop out in nearly every area. He did put things away in a locked drawer and ignore areas that he should be integral to, or at least have an opinion on. This was a lesson learnt from the politicians he observes in the Eurozone on a day to day basis on how to kick a can down the road.

So all in all "Super Mario"...... "We (ECB) will do all it takes...believe me" needs to open his eyes and ears and smell the coffee. The Eurozone is completely fu***d up and not in good order at all. To conduct that press conference the way he did was an insult to the European people, I believe it was pure German lip service. All Draghi achieved was a respite in the EUR/USD pressure by creating a short covering rally. I expected and the voters expected a great deal more. At times it was so unreal to listen to it was laughable.

All the above said...How do we play the EUR/USD going forward?

Following the poor U.S. Non Farm Payrolls yesterday, I expected the EUR/USD to march towards 1.3100. It never really happened we stopped around 1.3050 and pulled back ending the week below 1.3000 at 1.2990. After the Non Farm release I had the following trade in mind..... look to short EUR/USD at 1.3100, yesterday I missed the short at 1.3050 to get my trade going.....  I think that fact that we closed the week below 1.3000 has me thinking that we could be returning towards 1.2750 and not heading to 1.3100. The Eurozone fundamentals are so f***ed up I just don't see 1.3100.

&nbsp;

<span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>3. MY LONGER TERM TRADES:</strong></span>

I do not have any long-term trades at the moment.

&nbsp;

<span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>4. LOOKING AHEAD INTO THIS COMING WEEK.....THE KEY SUPPORT and RESISTANCE LEVELS IN THE USD MAJORS.</strong></span>

&nbsp;

<strong>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.2990. </strong>I think that we ended the week with a bearish tone as we pulled back from what I thought was a nailed on 1.3100 squeeze. The immediate levels this week are short side 1.2900 (if this breaks we will be re-testing 1.2750..no fear) and the resistance to watch is 1.3050. If we can break through this level 1.3100 is next. I still think 1.3100 would be a great place to go short.

<span style="text-decoration: underline;"><a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/EURUSD-MONTHLY-060413.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-1603" alt="EURUSD MONTHLY 060413" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/EURUSD-MONTHLY-060413.png" width="660"  /></a></span>

&nbsp;

<strong>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.5335. </strong>When we broke through 1.5260, I never thought we would move so far. 1.5350 has held so far but unless we see a sympathy vote from the GBP in line with the EUR to head lower I think we are heading to 1.5600 following this breakout. The cross-rate effect of the EUR/GBP will also influence cable as we go forward. I am more in the bullish camp to 1.5600 than the bearish camp back to 1.5000. The levels to interest me initially this week are 1.5260 support and 1.5400 resistance.

&nbsp;

<img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-1604" alt="GBPUSD DAILY 06042013" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/GBPUSD-DAILY-06042013.png" width="660" />

&nbsp;

<strong>AUD/USD: Closing Price 1.0382. </strong>We are now below and closed below 1.0400. This is significant and the results from the unemployment statistics this week if poor will send this pair tumbling towards 1.0200 and then 1.0150 and parity. The levels are 1.0350 to 1.0440.

&nbsp;

<strong>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8431. </strong>We closed just below resistance at 0.8450. This pair has held up very well. Yesterday we were in danger of a breakdown through 1.0370 towards 1.0350. This pair left the Aussie behind and the Kiwi strengthened. Levels this week are support at 1.0350 and resistance immediate is 0.8450 (may be a good place to try a short) beyond this level it's 0.8520.

&nbsp;

<strong>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.0175. </strong>We broke thru 1.0200 on the back of poor employment data yesterday and then the loonie strengthened on the back of blow out IVEY PMi stats later on yesterday to take the pair back below 1.0200. One might say a typical day for the aptly named loonie. We are range bound and support is as 1.0100 and resistance is at 1.0250.

&nbsp;

<strong>USD/JPY: Closing Price 97.54. </strong>The steam train was re-fuelled and headed north once again.....do not stand in front of this train. Please do not try to pick a top to fade. To me it looks like 100.00 is the objective and I read a few things saying 110.00 could be on. I think that that level maybe a bit far too quickly, too soon. This is a buy on pullbacks trade....what is a good pullback? We may not get good pullbacks. The USD/JPY works in round numbers so 97.00 may offer and a good level to get long. Whether we get there is debatable.

&nbsp;

<strong>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.9347. </strong>This pair has quietly fallen away and I think that the Eurozone uncertainty is fuelling matters here. The movement of money out of the Eurozone is going to gain greater momentum over the next few weeks and this will weigh on the CHF pairs. The rumblings from the SNB on paying for deposits will raise it's head more and more if inflows set a pace that the SNB are not comfortable with. The areas to watch with this pair are 0.9250 support to 0.9420 resistance.

&nbsp;

<span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>5. THE MAJOR NEWS ITEMS THAT INTEREST ME THIS WEEK:</strong></span>

WEDNESDAY: USD - FOMC Minutes.
WEDNESDAY: AUD - Unemployment Rate and Statistics.

THURSDAY: USD - Core Retail Sales, PPi an Retail Sales.

FRIDAY: USD - Bernanke speaks...all hail the FED chairman.

&nbsp;

<span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>6. CLOSING THOUGHTS AND FINAL COMMENTS:</strong></span>

Coming up it should be a quieter week. It certainly will be on the predetermined news events but the usual cocktail of sound-bytes and mis-quotes will be there so as usual, we need to be aware that these ad hoc news items can happen at anytime. In particular, the Eurozone will offer so many opportunities we just have to be careful with trade sizes.

The JPY I think will soldier on and I believe the train will not stop until we hit 100.00. That number is such a magnate, we have to go there before there can be any talk of a pullback.

Finally, this is important. North Korea could scupper all. If North Korea start to get more bolshy and actually fire something somewhere.....all bets will be off. The USD and JPY will strengthen like crazy in my opinion. Bear this in mind.

Good luck, be careful and make money,

&nbsp;

Scott Pickering
The Pip Accumulator
Saturday 6th April 2013

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

&nbsp;