<h3 style="text-align: center;"><strong>THE PREMIUM SERVICE
</strong><strong>(The Home of Single-Lot $$$$ Trading)</strong></h3>
<strong>DATE: 15.03.2015
REFERENCE: #51
</strong><strong>BLOG: THE PREMIUM SERVICE</strong>

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<ol>
	<li><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"> INTRODUCTION:</span></strong></li>
</ol>
<span style="text-decoration: underline;">1.1 LOOKING BACKWARD, FORWARD &amp; SIDEWAYS AT THE FX MARKET:</span>

Looking backward…

My main title of the blog last week following the huge moves in the USD was,

<strong>DON’T GET SUCKERED INTO USD LONG TRADES NOW</strong>

well…I got that wrong. The DXY powered onwards and upwards to touch the big triple digit 100.00 and then pulled back. Since that day, we have really just bounced around and range traded.

We saw very big moves lower with the cable and on Friday last week the EUR/USD broke below 1.0500. The GBP/USD broke recent lows sub 1.4777 to test 1.4700 and the EUR/USD dropped and took stops below 1.0500. I think that as we have an FOMC statement and the fact that Janet Yellen has a press conference this week to some extent the markets were adjusting positions, squaring off ahead and in anticipation of what the FOMC statement will be. The key of course is whether the word PATIENT is or is not included in the press release.

The power of the USD I believe has taken a lot of people by surprise. Most pundits / experts on TV have never seen the USD flex it’s muscles. It has always been generally weak and kept in its box. It has been and continues to defy gravity by some explosive upward moves. I still believe that we should see some consolidation. How high will it go? Potentially up to 125.00. It sounds crazy but with Central Bank divergence between the FED and ECB it is possible. This places the EUR/USD below parity around 0.9000. Yesterday, Goldman Sachs released 2015 and 2016 currency targets for the EUR/USD – they are quoting 0.9000 and 0.8600 as potential targets. Who knows? … watch this space.

My mate, Graeme Wheeler (RBNZ Governor), held rates at 3.50% and gave the usual two-sided Press Conference; balancing comments between DOVISH and HAWKISH, just to keep you guessing. My thoughts were more DOVISH, so I shorted the NZD/USD and posted a 48 pip loss. We actually had quite a substantial rally off the lows, of about 250 pips in total, before starting to fall back again in line with USD strength.

Looking forward….

The big news in the past 5 days of trading was the USD (DXY). This makes for a very interesting FOMC day on Wednesday. I will be out of all USD related trades well before the statement is released and unless you are a gambler of the high-stakes tables at Las Vegas I suggest you clear your USD related trades.

My approach to Forex is based on a lower risk assessment of each trade. I learnt a long time ago that FX could be a 50-50 gamble on direction. I admit those odds appeal to gamblers, but longevity in trading is what FX is all about and the “Slow and Steady wins the race” approach will always win out.

Mr. Jordan (Thomas Jordan) Governor of the SNB also takes to the stage this week with SNB Libor and a rate/Policy statement. I have to use Mr. for the SNB Governor as following the PEG removal of the EUR/CHF earlier this year, that move has elevated him to the history books…mucho $$$$$$ lost around the world a little profit here and there and thousands of jobs lost as a result. Yup… history book stuff. (Thomas Jordan is Mr. and Graeme Wheeler is my mate). I would strongly suspect that this policy statement from the SNB could be quite interesting given the recent moves in all related CHF pairs except the EUR/CHF. I do NOT want to start rumours but DO NOT rule out the SNB desire to have a new floor / PEG in the EUR/CHF of 1.1000 being announced…just saying. They could also move in increasing the negative deposit rate higher from the current 0.75%. As Peter Frampton would sing do not get caught “Asleep at the wheel”.

Looking sideways….

In eight years of trading, I do not think apart from the 2008/9 crash I have ever witnessed the Forex market being at such extremes. Mark my words, this will end in tears....
<p style="text-align: left;"><em>“Divergences &amp; poor correlations for an extended period = capitulation moves”</em></p>
I do not want to talk about BLACK SWAN events or the like, but the drop in the EUR/USD is now epic. Last May we were at 1.3972. We closed last week at 1.0495… that is 3,477 pips lower in about 9 months given a day or two.

We could see the mother of all drops this week if the FOMC announces that rates will still rise prior to the summer.

This FOMC news event is so important it will set up the FX market directionally for the next couple of months at the very least. DO NOT RISK YOUR BROKER ACCOUNT BY TRYING TO SECOND GUESS THE FOMC…close all USD related trades ahead of the event. Whatever way the FOMC decides on interest rates there will be opportunities to make lots of pips. The greatest feature and benefit of trading the Forex market is that there are moves everyday and there are opportunities everyday. DO NOT BE A SUCKER giving sucker money to your broker’s wallet.

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<ol start="2">
	<li><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"> WHAT’S ON MY MIND: -
THE FUNDAMENTAL TRADERS OVERVIEW:</span></strong></li>
</ol>
<h4 style="text-align: center;"><strong>WILL THE FOMC BREAK THE EUR/USD ON WEDNESDAY?
</strong><strong>And
</strong><strong>AHEAD OF THE FOMC… THE SMART MONEY IS ALREADY IN CASH</strong></h4>
I have been making notes all week about this week’s article. Before the week started I knew what my subject was going to be, it was just a question of deciding the content as the week progressed. From what I thought I would be writing at the start of the week, to what I am writing now, is about 80% similar. The big difference is that I did not think the FOMC release, (albeit important and market moving), would be such a huge pivotal piece of data, as I believe it is going to be.

In the past I have used words and phrases like “CROSSROADS”, “PRECIPICE”, “WHERE THE GRAVEL MEETS THE ROAD” and “THE LINE IN THE SAND” when describing key data releases etc. This Wednesday is one of those crucial days for data. Without doubt this is Janet Yellen’s most crucial few hours as Fed Chair since replacing Ben Bernanke.

I have a few economic arguments related to the strength of the USD and what the major issues are for the FED. However, before listing these, I want to say that from day one in office, Janet Yellen has stuck to her guns on commentary. She has painstakingly delivered a consistent message to the markets on when she is going to raise interest rates. She moved the markets away from employment percentages to being more reliant on data. She has said consistently of late that movements in interest rates will be data dependent. In fact of late, like many other Central Bank Presidents or Governors she has shown more of a concern over DEFLATION than anything else.

Lets face the facts; there is an economic slowdown. We are bouncing along the bottom, there are NO consistencies of economic growth in the world, China is slowing down and there are divergences all over the markets to ponder.

It all comes down to one word from the FOMC statement. If PATIENT is removed the EUR/USD will be crushed through parity within weeks. I know it sounds crazy, but this statement on Wednesday has a lot to do with saving face. The FED has said that interest rates are going to rise in the U.S. If they pullback from this position the USD will get crushed instead. But if the FED rescinds on raising rates no-one will believe a word uttered from them again and the markets will lose what it needs above all else, certainty of FED monetary policy. Uncertainty, which is what will happen if rates do not rise, this would be a huge step back for the markets. Of course, the FED can say that interest rates are still going to rise in 2015 but not before the summer.

My view is that the chatter on FED rate increases has reached the point where the FED needs to act, and, above all else, be clear and as unambiguous as possible on future actions.

I think she will intimate a rate increase of 0.25% to be done June or July and the EUR/USD will get crushed as a result. Previous blogs refer to Central bank divergences; the ECB is accommodative, dovish and interest rates low for years to come. The FED raising rates is hawkish. The divergence will provide a sell-off of huge proportions.

So it’s dead simple….

Not that fast….

The FED has the ultimate dilemma.

The 800lb gorilla in the room is DEFLATION.

The FED does NOT want DEFLATION as the strong USD gives DEFLATION through lower import prices on goods imported into the USA from abroad. How on earth with DEFLATION can the FED achieve its 2% INFLATION target?

So basically as I see it Janet Yellen is damned if she doesn’t and damned if she does.

If she raises rates like I think she will, the EMERGING MARKETS could be faced with a crash not unlike 1997. The ramification of U.S. monetary policy is felt worldwide.

If she doesn’t raise rates, I believe that the markets will see this as a rate cut…stocks will rally and the USD will weaken. But, this places future FED speak into the “yeah right!!” category of do you or don't you believe them in the future. This is a risk and Central Bankers do NOT like or take risks. No rate cut would say to the markets that the economic data is so poor, that it my opinion it could lead to another bout of QE…. QE4!!!

I believe that clever / smart equity market traders will have cashed out many of their positions ahead of the FOMC. Equity markets cash from the U.S. is being placed into the European bourses like the DAX. There are some U.S. investors that are mandated to keep their money in the U.S. I think they will have it in cash at the moment until they see what the FED does.

There is uncertainty in the equity markets, in particular the U.S., and it is evident for all to see the divergence between the DAX and S&amp;P.

With uncertainty in the U.S. one might expect a flight to safety with GOLD. But I see GOLD as a huge DEFLATION trade at the moment. The higher return in the USD is in direct comparison to China weakness, the ECB QE program and Japanese future economic uncertainty.

It is clear-cut in my eyes.

From an equity perspective, the SMART MONEY has reduced positions in U.S. equities.

From an FX perspective, Forex Traders are either going to get a major sell-off or a bounce in the EUR/USD. It is all based on the FED’s interpretation of U.S. economic data. If the FOMC says that interest rates can’t move because the data is still not good enough…. the USD will get crushed and I predict QE4.

It is huge decision, some may say gamble because Yellen will NOT want to lose face by not raising interest rates. This could create huge credibility issues moving forward.

I am in the camp of a June or July rate hike.

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<ol start="3">
	<li><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</span></strong><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">SUMMARY OF PERFORMANCE:</span></strong></li>
</ol>
<span style="text-decoration: underline;">3.1 OVERVIEW:</span>

For new readers who may not be aware, I refer to the PREMIUM SERVICE quite a lot in this blog and for more details about what it is, and, how much it costs, you will need to go the welcome page of <a href="http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> At the top of the page there are three drop down menus: PREMIUM SERVICE, PROMOTIONS (if available), SIGN-UP and DISCLAIMER. Further details and how to join are all contained there. You will need at PayPal account to subscribe.

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">3.2.1 PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIPTION COSTS:</span>

Full details regarding the PREMIUM SERVICE can be found on my website <a href="http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>
<p style="text-align: center;">On the welcome page there are a series of TABS at the top of the page that provide a summary of what the PREMIUM SERVICE is about and what you receive for your subscription.</p>
<strong>THE 2015 SUBSCRIPTION BREAKDOWN IS AS FOLLOWS: -</strong>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>10 weeks - $200.00</strong>
<strong>20 weeks - $350.00</strong>
<strong>40 weeks - $500.00</strong></p>
<span style="text-decoration: underline;">3.2.2. PREMIUM SERVICE – UPDATE ON CHANGES DUE BY APRIL 2015</span>

I mentioned last week, that I am looking at making some changes to my Forex business.

These changes will soon be seen on my website, in the structures and formats of my various blogs.

Over the next 4-6 weeks most of these changes will be completed, the only areas that are causing a few headaches at the moment are those issues relating to space, which are beyond my pay scale and a whole new world to become involved with. Some changes are easier than others to make, and, can be pretty instant to do, while others, in particular, my space issues require more thought and planning. The progress review meetings are still taking place and I am happy so far, although the bigger decisions are still to be made.

However, there are subtle changes made to the blog content this week. These are specifically aimed at my PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers, in section 4.

Basically, as we know, the closing weekly candles are heavily scrutinised by the major banks in the way that they assess their future FX strategy. This is not just for the coming week but also looking at a run of weekly candles can provide some strong trending data. From this blog onwards, I believe that it would be a good discipline to review these charts each week. I am proposing only the USD majors at this stage. These charts now form part of section 4.7.

Moving forward this blog will remain, but I can confirm that the section exclusively for PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers will expand. This is only fair when you consider that my subscribers are paying for a service of TRADE SET-UPS plus the bonus of some MARKET ANALYSIS.

Subscription changes will take place from April 1<sup>st</sup> and I am hoping to be able to show more flexibility in subscription periods but this is to a large extent outside of my control as it is in the hands of PayPal.

My process moving forward with the proposed changes involves: -
<ul>
	<li>COMMUNICATION and REPORTING OPTIONS</li>
	<li>WEBSITE OPTIONS and CAPABILITIES</li>
	<li>PRICE and TIERED SUBSCRIPTIONS</li>
	<li>TRAINING and MENTORING</li>
	<li>PARTNERSHIP PROGRAMS and INITIATIVES</li>
</ul>
For existing subscribers there will be a questionnaire released as soon as the research is completed to obtain your views.

From a timing perspective, changes should start to appear I think possibly as early as April, after the first quarter has ended. Please continue to watch this space for updates.

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<span style="text-decoration: underline;">3.3.1. SUMMARY OF PERFORMANCE:</span>

(Only the excel spreadsheets will now be shown in this section. References to previous, present and future trades “THE TRADING REVIEW” will now be provided solely for the benefit of PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers and has been moved into section 4.2)

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">3.3.2. – PREMIUM SERVICE PROFIT/LOSS RATIOS:</span>

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<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/PROFIT-LOSS-RATIO-15032105.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-5467" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/PROFIT-LOSS-RATIO-15032105.png" alt="PROFIT LOSS RATIO 15032105" width="414" height="585" /></a>

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">3.3.3. – PREMIUM SERVICE RISK/REWARD ANALYSIS:</span>

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<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/RISK-REWARD-15032015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-5466" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/RISK-REWARD-15032015.png" alt="RISK REWARD 15032015" width="428" height="541" /></a>

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<span style="text-decoration: underline;">3.3.4. – PREMIUM SERVICE OVERALL TRADE SUMMARY MONTH &amp; YTD:</span>

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<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/PREM-SERV-PROFITS-1-15032015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-5468" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/PREM-SERV-PROFITS-1-15032015.png" alt="PREM SERV PROFITS 1 15032015" width="452" height="425" /></a>

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<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/PREM-SERV-PROFITS2-15032015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-5469" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/PREM-SERV-PROFITS2-15032015.png" alt="PREM SERV PROFITS2 15032015" width="464" height="427" /></a>

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<ol start="4">
	<li><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBER EXCLUSIVE CONTENT:</span></strong></li>
</ol>
(Section 4 is exclusive PREMIUM SERVICE content only available to PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers)

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">4.1 EDUCATION:
</span>(The full list of all items and more from this section can be found in the PREMIUM SERVICE website in the Trade Essential area under the EDUCATION tab.)

There is no EDUCATION article this week .

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">4.2. THE PREMIUM SERVICE – LAST WEEK’S TRADING REVIEW:</span>

Last week was a great trading week for THE PREMIUM SERVICE. The USD/CHF and GBP/NZD both long trades were the standouts.

Regarding The USD/CHF, this was the second long trade with this pair in the last 7 or 8 days, from which a core position developed a substantial amount of associated trades. I think at one stage across 5 trading accounts there were over 20 USD/CHF trades LIVE at the same time.

The GBP/NZD was the first example this year of the SSP in action. The move triggered 4 long trades for a total of 685 pips. From the first trade to the trade 4 closing price the PREMIUM SERVICE claimed a total of 429 pips. I was very happy with this trade from a technical perspective. One of these trades each week would be just great. One a month is also fine!

To compliment these trades several USD major pairs added an average of 30-40 trade profits per trade to turn a previous monthly trade income from a negative into a healthy positive.

It is all about consistency. My PREMIUM SERVICE general trading account keeps ticking over. It is only when more than a single lot is risked and the trade concerned turns out to be a losing trade that you have to play catch-up. My old FXCM account could be playing catch up for another three months!

The principle of single-lot profitable trading works; it’s all about having the right sized account for a MICRO, MINI or STANDARD LOT approach to gain the success.

Into this week I carried forward 4 trades all of them hedged. Two of the trades GBP/CAD and GBP/AUD are long FUNDAMENTAL TRADES; the others are EUR/CHF long and long GBP/CHF.

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">4.3 THE PREMIUM SERVICE - EXISTING LIVE TRADES:</span>

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/PS-LIVE-TRADES-15032015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-5477" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/PS-LIVE-TRADES-15032015.png" alt="PS LIVE TRADES 15032015" width="723" height="514" /></a>

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<span style="text-decoration: underline;">4.4 THE PREMIUM SERVICE – EXISTING LIMIT ORDERS:</span>

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<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/PS-LIMIT-ORDERS-15032105.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-5476" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/PS-LIMIT-ORDERS-15032105.png" alt="PS LIMIT ORDERS 15032105" width="717" height="398" /></a>

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">PLEASE NOTE:</span>

Remember position sizes for suggested FUNDAMENTAL TRADES should be much smaller than usual, maybe only 10%-15% of your normal trading position size. It is only when we add to our positions that the fun begins. All FUNDAMENTAL trades posted via email contain a second page with details of where I will add trades and when and where stops are moved, the Stair Stepping Stop Protection (SSSP) is self-explanatory and I hope useful. Using this grows your trading position and helps protect the profits made, should the trade gain traction. In addition, I have added some detail on my HEDGING approach as well to the second FUNDAMENTAL TRADE alert page. More detailed information on HEDGING can be found inside the PREMIUM SERVICE website under the EDUCATION tab – Trading Essentials.

I view the commodity cross-rate pairs as bonus trades away from the USD majors and over the year they can be very profitable. This is why I have a separate broker for commodity cross-RATE PAIR trades. It gives me an immediate measurement of performance without the need to extrapolate data.

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<span style="text-decoration: underline;">4.5 POTENTIAL TRADES - WHAT CHARTS AM I LOOKING AT?</span>

I have been asked to have more charts in the blog. New from this week onwards are the closing weekly charts for the USD majors that are featured in section 4.7.

This section will contain charts related to other pairs. In particular the ones that I am working on and looking at because they catch my eye that may become potential trades in the trading sessions ahead. If these are no comments beneath the charts my comments / thoughts are written on them directly. I will tweet and email as soon as these possible trades become LIMIT ORDERS.

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">EUR/AUD, EUR/CAD (weekly) and EUR/NZD (monthly):</span>

These charts below show critical support levels that are almost in play. I think it would be a very brave person to go long these pairs at the moment given the relentless selling of the EUR across the board. However, should the EUR/USD bounce, the reversal moves higher in these pairs could be awesome.

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/EURAUDWeekly15032015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-5488" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/EURAUDWeekly15032015-1024x467.png" alt="EURAUDWeekly15032015" width="1024" height="467" /></a>

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<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/EURCADWeekly15032015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-5489" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/EURCADWeekly15032015-1024x467.png" alt="EURCADWeekly15032015" width="1024" height="467" /></a>

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<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/EURNZDMonthly15032015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-5490" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/EURNZDMonthly15032015-1024x467.png" alt="EURNZDMonthly15032015" width="1024" height="467" /></a>

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<span style="text-decoration: underline;">GBP/CHF (240 minutes):</span>

We bounced off horizontal support at 1.4764 last Friday. Watch this pair in relation to the SNB announcement in case they deliver another market moving piece of data. Back above 1.4920 makes me feel that this pair is once again bullish.

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<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/GBPCHFH415032105.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-5492" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/GBPCHFH415032105-1024x467.png" alt="GBPCHFH415032105" width="1024" height="467" /></a>

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<span style="text-decoration: underline;">GBP/NZD (weekly):</span>

A break below 2.000 could possible be on. I see a long trade opportunity around 1.9850 maybe being the first opportunity, or maybe a deeper pullback to around 1.9400 is on the cards. I do think that a long trade of this pair offers a great risk reward when it sets up.

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<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/GBPNZDWeekly15032015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-5493" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/GBPNZDWeekly15032015-1024x467.png" alt="GBPNZDWeekly15032015" width="1024" height="467" /></a>

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">EUR/JPY (weekly), GBP/JPY (daily) and EUR/GBP (60 minutes):</span>

I am looking to enter short all of these pairs on pullbacks, possibly as soon at the European session tomorrow. At the back of my mind though is the FOMC, and, the question “are we just going to see consolidation ahead of the news?”. I will need to think about this.

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<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/EURJPY-WEEKLY-15032015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-5485" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/EURJPY-WEEKLY-15032015-1024x517.png" alt="EURJPY WEEKLY 15032015" width="1024" height="517" /></a>

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<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/GBPJPY-DAILY-15032015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-5483" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/GBPJPY-DAILY-15032015-1024x517.png" alt="GBPJPY DAILY 15032015" width="1024" height="517" /></a>

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<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/EURGBP-60M-15032015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-5486" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/EURGBP-60M-15032015-1024x517.png" alt="EURGBP 60M 15032015" width="1024" height="517" /></a>

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<span style="text-decoration: underline;">4.6 MAJOR TRADING PAIRS WITH LONGER-TERM TRENDS MATCHING:</span>

The following currency pairs have Short Term (DAILY), Medium Term (WEEKLY) and Long Term (MONTHLY) charts all trending in the same direction.

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<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/TRENDING-PAIRS-15032015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-5475" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/TRENDING-PAIRS-15032015.png" alt="TRENDING PAIRS 15032015" width="396" height="506" /></a>

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<span style="text-decoration: underline;">4.7 THE KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS</span><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">:
</span></strong>(This content is now for PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers only, it allows me to refer to existing and future set-ups that form part of the PREMIUM SERVICE subscription. it also now includes chart analysis based on the weekly candlestick charts.)<strong> </strong>

<strong>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.0495.</strong> I never thought that this week I would be writing a EUR/USD exchange rate with a 1.04 handle. Last week I was convinced that we would see a pullback to about 1.1000, from which I would enter short and happy days would ensue for one and all. I know that a few of you just jumped in short the EUR/USD and it has worked out for you. That is NOT my style nor is it in my TRADE PLAN. My PREMIUM SERVICE short entry is at 1.0970. I extended the limit order date for expiry up to the 27<sup>th</sup> March earlier today as I watched the EUR/USD take a death plunge below 1.05 and flush out the stops.

The WEEKLY CHART below covers from 2006 to the present day. You can see the down sloping trading range that the EUR/USD has been in since 2007. There is a support horizontal trend line that comes into play at 1.0360 (I cannot get it on the chart as it makes the chart so small it would be impossible to see any detail at all), I think that this is where we are going. However, if the FOMC takes away PATIENT from the statement this Wednesday we are heading to parity in probably a few weeks. This 1.0360 support will be irrelevant and the Goldman Sachs target of sub 0.9000 becomes very much a thought to seriously consider.

Support is at 1.0360 and resistance at 1.0665.

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/EURUSD-WEEKLY-15032015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-5484" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/EURUSD-WEEKLY-15032015-1024x517.png" alt="EURUSD WEEKLY 15032015" width="1024" height="517" /></a>

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<strong>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.4740</strong>. Wow, it very much looks like the GBP/USD is heading for low 1.40’s very soon. The WEEKLY CHART below shows the Fibonacci 127% extension support at 1.4162. I cannot see me obtaining a pullback to 1.5200 to enter short somehow. I will have to revise my short entry when I see if the cable bounces in sympathy with the EUR/USD, assuming we get a bounce! The general election uncertainty is starting to weigh in on the cable. George Osborne (UK Chancellor) delivers his budget this week and this potentially could be another banana skin for GBP/USD.

Initial support is at 1.4700 and resistance at 1.4777.

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/GBPUSD-WEEKLY-15032015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-5482" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/GBPUSD-WEEKLY-15032015-1024x517.png" alt="GBPUSD WEEKLY 15032015" width="1024" height="517" /></a>

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<strong>AUD/USD: Closing Price 0.7633</strong>. Below 0.7600 and it is almost plain sailing all the way to 0.7100. It all depends on the FOMC. There are very strong rumours of an RBA Rate cut next month. But that is along time away from the present. There is some support at 0.7560-65 that may offer something but in real terms if we continue to fall below 0.7600 it could pick up speed to 0.7230, where there is a Fibonacci confluence then obviously the RBA objective from a while back of 0.7000 is just below.

Support is at 0.7560 and resistance at 0.7740.

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/AUDUSD-WEEKLY-15032015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-5487" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/AUDUSD-WEEKLY-15032015-1024x517.png" alt="AUDUSD WEEKLY 15032015" width="1024" height="517" /></a>

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<strong>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.7312</strong>. When you look at the WEEKLY CHART below the government target of an exchange rate of 0.6500 does not look too far away. In fact, I believe once at 0.7000 it could be quite a swift move lower. For now however there are a few key levels to break. Right now as you can see from the chart below we have a clear trading range of 0.7170 to 0.7620.

Support is good at 0.7250 and resistance is strong at 0.7360 and then at 0.7420.

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/NZDUSD-WEEKLY-15032015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-5481" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/NZDUSD-WEEKLY-15032015-1024x517.png" alt="NZDUSD WEEKLY 15032015" width="1024" height="517" /></a>

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<strong>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.2778.</strong> Crude oil is really heavily influencing this pair. There was a nice drop in oil prices on Friday last week and despite better than expected Employment data on Friday morning the CAD weakened and rose to above 1.2800 before pulling back a little. One thing that is noticeable from the WEEKLY CHART below is that we have made a cup from a potential cup and handle formation. If we did form a cup and handle formation we are looking at 1.6000+.

The move higher off 1.0750 – 1.0800 is just pure power. It is obvious to me that another re-test of 1.3060 is on the cards and then who knows where. There is a flag pattern on the chart with a potential measured move to 1.4000.

Support is good at 1.2750 and resistance is at 1.2800-25 then 1.3000 looms again.

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<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/USDCAD-WEEKLY-15032015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-5480" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/USDCAD-WEEKLY-15032015-1024x517.png" alt="USDCAD WEEKLY 15032015" width="1024" height="517" /></a>

<strong>USD/CHF: Closing Price 1.0043</strong>. This has been my trading pair of the year so far. After the EUR/CHF peg was removed this pair has been like a stealth pair rising back from the ashes to parity. We have had two failures now at just above 1.0100. The chart below shows the rise since the CHF peg removal on the EUR/CHF. The target that I am working to is the pre PEG removal 1.0230. But for now this looks a tough nut to crack. However, should the EUR/USD drop like a lead balloon, I would expect the USD/CHF to pass 1.0250. This would be aided by SNB action on negative interest rates.

Support is at 0.9970 and resistance at 1.0125.

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/USDCHF-WEEKLY-CHART-15032015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-5479" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/USDCHF-WEEKLY-CHART-15032015-1024x517.png" alt="USDCHF WEEKLY CHART 15032015" width="1024" height="517" /></a>

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<strong>USD/JPY: Closing Price 121.39. </strong> The USD/JPY has powered higher this week, but there is divergence between the performance of the JPY and the Nikkei. I am no expert on the JPY pairs at all but this correlation is usually crucial and if it is off sync, I predict trouble for the JPY and we could see JPY strengthening once again across the board.

There is previous resistance at 124.20 on monthly charts, that level is still quite a long way off. Pullbacks to 118.50 should be very well supported and that is where I believe the lower end of the USD/JPY range lies.

For now I think support at 120.50 and resistance at 121.75 and 122.00 is what should keep our attention.

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<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/USDJPY-WEEKLY-15032015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-5478" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/USDJPY-WEEKLY-15032015-1024x517.png" alt="USDJPY WEEKLY 15032015" width="1024" height="517" /></a>

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<ol start="5">
	<li><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"> THE WEEK AHEAD: -
WHAT AM I THINKING &amp; WHAT AM I LOOKING AT?</span></strong></li>
</ol>
<span style="text-decoration: underline;">5.1 MAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:</span>
SUNDAY: N/A.

MONDAY: N/A.

TUESDAY: N/A.

WEDNESDAY: GBP – Employment Data.
WEDNESDAY: GBP – The Annual Budget.
<span style="line-height: 1.5;">WEDNESDAY: USD – FOMC Statement, Projections &amp; Press Conference.
</span><span style="line-height: 1.5;">WEDNESDAY: NZD – GDP.</span>

THURSDAY: CHF – SNB Policy Statement &amp; Press Conference.

FRIDAY: CAD – Core CPi and Core Retail Sales.

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<span style="text-decoration: underline;">5.2 FINAL THOUGHTS / CLOSING COMMENTS:</span>

This week is all about two items of news in my opinion.

The FOMC Monetary Policy Statement, with revised economic projections with Janet Yellen’s Press Conference.

and

The SNB Libor rate announcement and the monetary policy statement, with Governor Mr. Jordan’s Press Conference.

There are other snippets of news but these two dominate in my opinion.

Certainly ahead of the FOMC, I will be lighter than light on LIVE trades. At the time of writing this blog, my thought process is just to have the existing hedged trades open, they are primarily FUNDAMENTAL TRADES.

It is without doubt a pivotal week.

We will have opportunities to make $$$, we just have to be alert and careful.

As always, there will be trades to trade and there will be some great opportunities, please trade in line with your RISK MANAGEMENT parameters from your TRADING PLAN. If you do not have a TRADE PLAN, in my opinion, you should, as this will help you with consistency.
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>Consistency = longevity in trading and that is a critical goal.
IT IS THE KEY MEASUREMENT</strong></p>
Before you enter a trade work out the risk, price it in $$$. Place your stop accordingly. PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers have a full library of information on RISK MANAGEMENT, RISK TOLERANCES and POSITION SIZING etc. available for reference 24x7.

&nbsp;

Take care.

Scott Pickering
The Pip Accumulator
Sunday March 15th 2015

EMAIL / FOLLOW ME AT:
premiumservice@weeklyfxdrivethru.com
Twitter: @pipaccumulator
Twitter: @ThePremService
<span style="line-height: 1.5;">Google+/scottpickering
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FLASH, RADAR and FUNDAMENTAL trade set-ups, “Tweets” and “Trade ideas” that are posted in my blogs or on Twitter are trades and set-ups that interest me. They are provided for training and informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as an offer, solicitation or recommendation of any specific security or investment strategy. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading Forex carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade any such leveraged products you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin, and seek advice from an independent financial adviser if you have any doubts.