&nbsp;
<ol>
 	<li><span style="font-size: 14pt;"><strong> THE FIRST SHOT:</strong></span></li>
</ol>
Welcome to the month of March.

The name of the month may have changed but the geopolitical and economic concerns that could send the FX market into either a tailspin or the ultimate short squeeze are still hanging over us like the “Sword of Damocles”.
<ul>
 	<li>ITALIAN ELECTIONS – COALITION PARTNERS UNCERTAINTY</li>
 	<li>GERMANY - SPD PARTY VOTES ON COALITION DEAL with CDU</li>
 	<li>BREXIT – EU &amp; UK IN GAME OF “HIGH STAKES CHICKEN”</li>
 	<li>TRUMP – KICKING OFF A GLOBAL TRADE WAR</li>
 	<li>JEROME POWELL – FED RATE HIKES in 2018</li>
 	<li>US 10YR YIELDS if BREAK THROUGH 3% sets up 4.5%</li>
 	<li>BOJ – CHANGE IN MONETARY POLICY RE QQE in 2019?</li>
</ul>
Happy days... It’s all good fun and it ensures that we remain vigilant whilst staring at our trading screens.

I have often said jokingly to friends that trading Forex one has to “Rub your tummy and scratch your head both at the same time” just to keep up at times, and what fascinates me most about trading currencies is that when you look at the list above, some are currency positive, some are currency negative. It is the inter-market reactions and correlations that keep you on your toes. Even more so at the moment as many correlations are “off” and correlations “do matter” when trading currencies.

So, it looks like there will be some fun ahead this week and when you add into the mix a full range of economic data releases as well, such as U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls, ECB Press Conference and Policy decisions, BOJ, RBA and BOC interest rate decisions and Central Bank statements, plus CAD jobs and Trade Balance and AUD Retail Sales, GDP and Trade Balance, it is set up to be a week of potential volatility.

Let me make a bit of an understatement.... this week is a big week for data and reactions to geopolitical events.... no kidding!

If you are new to the FX market, this week could be one to sit back and merely just observe the price action.

Finally, in this section...

I think that in the last 12 months I have written or mentioned crypto currencies only once and that was in section 5, which only PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers see. I was asked a question during the week as to why I do not talk about them?

My answer is very easy and clear.

Until they are fully regulated and safe to trade, I am not interested.

<strong> </strong>
<ol start="2">
 	<li><span style="font-size: 14pt;"><strong> MARKET OVERVIEW – MY THOUGHTS:</strong></span><strong> </strong></li>
</ol>
<p style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 14pt;"><strong>BREXIT AT A “MEXICAN STANDOFF”</strong></span></p>
Now...

Without looking like I have read the book “THE ART OF THE DEAL”, I have to say that UK Prime Minister May’s fourth “APRES BREXIT” speech last Friday ticked lots of the boxes. Whilst the speech was just as much a speech to appeal to Conservative Party unity, it was also conciliatory for the EU in that she did NOT threaten to stamp her feet and walk away.

Whether you rate Theresa May’s leadership or not, the speech hit every note that needed to be hit. She has to do this in my opinion.... why?

Nothing new here I’m afraid, it’s all to do with BREXIT CONTAGION.

The facts are very simple. The EU has as much, if not some would say, more to lose than the UK when the BREXIT finally happens.

Keeping this very simple and straightforward, both the UK and the EU have lots to lose if they do not maintain equitable trade relations.

If the BREXIT agreement is seen as a “GOOD DEAL” to leave the EU, the fear from the EU is that the current EU27 (the number of countries currently members of the EUROPEAN UNION), could reduce to the EU25 or EU22... pick your own number.

The EU negotiating team led my Michel Barnier (Presently French Politician, ex. European Commissioner for Internal Market and Services 2010-2014) and supported by the likes of Donald Tusk (currently President of the European council and ex. Prime Minister of Poland) and Jean Claude Junker (President of the European commission and Luxembourg politician), are maintaining a HARD-RED LINE to demonstrate that, leaving the EU should be no “Bed of Roses”.

The simple facts are though, from my perspective that since the vote was taken via referendum to leave the EU by the UK voters in June 2016, very little appears to have happened by way of actually leaving.

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/BREXIT-TIMELINE-03032018.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-11071" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/BREXIT-TIMELINE-03032018-985x1024.png" alt="" width="985" height="1024" /></a>

&nbsp;

From the chart above, basically following the trigger of Article 50 in March 2017 (a year ago) from my perspective it’s been a game of “HIGH STAKES CHICKEN” and a “MEXICAN STANDOFF” has taking hold. Neither side after stating their positions has really budged. You have to bear in mind, politicians rarely answer questions they state positions and all the major negotiators in the BREXIT from both sides are politicians at source.

In the past week both sides have literally regurgitated their positions under the pretext of breaking speeches important to the BREXIT negotiations.

Will the negotiators meet the October deadline this year for a deal to be ratified by the EU27? The UK BREXIT date is 29<sup>th</sup> March 2019 at 23.00 CET.

OK, so what has been done apart from both sides expelling a lot of hot air?

The EU Withdrawal Bill, which is intended to convert all existing EU laws into UK law to ensure there are no gaps in legislation on BREXIT day, has had two readings in the House of Commons and passed, however, it is now in the House of Lords who have said basically that it needs to be re-written!

So that's not much progress at all unless the re-writes can find support back in front of MP’s when it is pushed back and amended. It will require a commons committee to co-ordinate amendments. This will make it close to deadline day for signing into law, assuming that the “Lords” like the new wording and can ratify the paper on time and not create delays!

The sticking points seem to be only: -
<ol>
 	<li>CITIZENS RIGHTS - The ECJ (The European Court of Justice):It’s all about the role it plays in protecting the rights of EU citizens living and working in the UK following BREXIT. The hardline BREXIT MP’s say that regaining sovereignty means removing the UK from the meddling by EU judges. The UK has the same issues for British ex pats living around the EU.

This is a biggie. The EU does not want the UK meddling in its courts and vice-versa.</li>
 	<li>The IRISH BORDER:Maybe a little naïve on my part but I thought this would not be a problem when heads were smacked together. I thought “Take a look at Switzerland”; which is not in the EU, you can drive in and out of Switzerland from Germany, France or Italy. There are no hard borders. Am I over simplifying this issue?

The trade agreement with Switzerland accommodates NO HARD BORDER.</li>
 	<li>The DIVORCE BILL:The settlement amount to be paid by the UK to exit the EU has varied tremendously depending upon who is talking at the time and from which side of the negotiating table. It is now believed to be in the region €60 Billion (£50 Billion).

There are many people who say “BOLLOCKS, the UK has paid enough just walk away”. I hear these comments but from the UK government perspective, the BREXIT bill is really the price to pay for a future trade deal. From the EU perspective it is all about settling past debts (EU Staff pension, loan guarantees and aid scheme contributions such as Syrian refugees etc.)</li>
 	<li>TRADE DEAL &amp; THE CUSTOMS UNION:This is at the centre of the debate at the moment the UK opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn wants a customs union. This basically would keep the UK in a “FREE TRADE ZONE”. Internally, the “zone” is free of tariffs, which are only charged at the “zones” point of entry.

By the letter, as far as I can see BREXIT = leaving the customs union. I therefore cannot understand how in the name of sanity Corbyn can adopt such a stance without going against the “will” of the people? On top of this minor point... the EU would view this as pure cherry picking and frankly unrealistic, more like political posturing than anything else.

Theresa May outlined a proposal last Friday on trade, confirming the exit of the customs union but proposed having an associate status to charge and forward EU receipts and add any UK costs as items enter the ”zone”. Hmmn...Jeremy Corbyn revisited?

This is a massive area not just to get an agreement, but jobs and manufacturing businesses in both the UK and EU rest on this outcome. This will require huge debate between the UK and EU negotiators.</li>
</ol>
Now, there may be more sticking points, but these are the 4 that continue to resonate with me over and over again vis-à-vis the BREXIT negotiations.

Obviously, the UK position is to “Cherry Pick” and the EU position is to ensure the UK does not.

The next deadline is October this year, when there is a deadline for the deal to be completed.

I still have my doubts that this timeline can be agreed. The UK will want a blanket agreement in order that it can have some flexibility in the future, to deal with potential one-off cases that could be missed during the negotiations. The EU has Brussels; Brussels is non-elected, full of expense drive bureaucrats, who’s existence is justified and possibly measured on how many i’s and t’s can be dotted and crossed.

We appear to have a “MEXICAN STANDOFF” both sides are more than happy to state their positions. As mentioned earlier, this is what politicians do. Whilst this can be viewing as amusing to some people, the clock is ticking away in the background.

Obviously, both sides will yield some ground in order to get an agreement, what the final draft looks like, who knows at this stage.

From a trading perspective the continued uncertainty is weighing on the GBP but not EUR, which I admit surprises me a little. As I have said of late cross-rates offer the best opportunities and given TRUMP’s latest moves on tariffs, maybe staying away from the USD is also not a bad idea!

&nbsp;
<ol start="3">
 	<li><span style="font-size: 14pt;"><strong>USD SUPPORT and RESISTANCE with my BIAS:</strong></span></li>
</ol>
<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/TCHART-03032018.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-11078" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/TCHART-03032018-1024x894.png" alt="" width="1024" height="894" /></a>

<strong> </strong>
<ol start="4">
 	<li><span style="font-size: 14pt;"><strong>THE PREMIUM SERVICE TRADING SUMMARY:</strong></span></li>
</ol>
<u>PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>

(Incorporating the last 5 PREMIUM SERVICE TRADES)

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/PS-SUMMARY-03032018.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-11077" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/PS-SUMMARY-03032018-1024x869.png" alt="" width="1024" height="869" /></a>

You can get on board and join from as little as CAD$10 for 10 days and then CAD$150.00 per month, currency conversions for CAD$150 are roughly as follows: -

GBP £90 per month
EUR €100 per month
USD $120 per month
JPY 12,700 per month
AUD $150 per month

This represents a great value way to subscribe…  and a great RISK / REWARD!

Moving on...

<a href="mailto:d*****@gmail.com">d*****@gmail.com</a> has won the monthly draw for a FREE 30-DAY subscription to the PREMIUM SERVICE. By the time this blog is posted hopefully he or she will be fully equipped with all the supporting data and ready to receive!
<p style="text-align: center;">Still more about THE PREMIUM SERVICE this week...</p>
<p style="text-align: center;">PREMIUM SERVICE – FEBRUARY 2108:
The PREMIUM SERVICE generated a total of 2,414 net pips, taking the year to date number to 3,892 pips.
78% of trades in February made $$$
22% of trades in February lost $$$
Year to date it's a 74% / 26% ratio
In comparison to 2017, the PREMIUM SERVICE is 3,145 pips ahead of the year to date performance at the same time.</p>
The spreadsheet below shows you the potential earnings that were made in February and the year to date based upon being a trader who trades single or 5 lots of either MICRO, MINI or STANDARD size.

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/PREMIUM-SERVICE-PERF.-JAN-FEB-2018.jpg"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-11065" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/PREMIUM-SERVICE-PERF.-JAN-FEB-2018-1024x829.jpg" alt="" width="1024" height="829" /></a>

As you can see from the spreadsheet above ALL types of traders even single micro lot traders would be positive after the first two months this year. Being realistic, I would NOT expect single micro lot traders to benefit much in a full year, but it does show that risking just $0.10 per trade can generate an income.

From a longer-term perspective my thoughts are along the lines that from 5 x micro lots upwards, risking a minimum of just $0.50 cents per trade will generate a small positive income after costs. There are obviously no guarantees with income, I cannot guarantee this and as you know you trade with RISK. However, with managed RISK there are opportunities for micro lot traders.

Moving up the scale single mini lot ($1.00 per trade) traders and above have since 2014 been able to generate a net income after costs have been applied and although there are still RISKS, again with RISK MANAGEMENT these RISKS can be managed.

The bottom line is that since 2014 the PREMIUM SERVICE has been profitable.

Therefore...

I am obviously delighted, over the moon, a happy bunny, you use whatever phrase or terminology you prefer but to say that 2018 has started with a bang is the second understatement I have made in this blog so far!

You can subscribe for periods as well. Go to my website <a href="http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> for more details under the TAB – “SUBSCRIBE HERE”.

<strong> </strong>
<ol start="5">
 	<li><span style="font-size: 14pt;"><strong>PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS:</strong></span></li>
</ol>
(This section is for PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS ONLY)

<u>5.1. TRADING REVIEW:</u>

<u>5.2. SENTIMENT,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>
</u>

<u>5.3. THE WEEK AHEAD:</u>

<u>5.3.1. ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES THAT INTEREST ME:</u>

<u>5.3.2. MY KEY EVENTS ON THIS WEEK’S CALENDAR AND WHY:</u>

<u>5.3.3. HOW I WILL APPROACH and TRADE THE MARKET THIS WEEK:</u>

<u>5.3.4. MY “MACRO” TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEK AHEAD:</u>

<u>5.4. CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>

<u>5.4.1. CURRENT LIVE TRADES:
</u>
<u>5.4.2. CURRENT LIMIT ORDER TRADES:</u>

<u>5.5. FX BROKER NEWS and MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>

&nbsp;

<strong> </strong>
<ol start="6">
 	<li><span style="font-size: 14pt;"><strong>THE FINAL SHOT:</strong></span></li>
</ol>
Nothing more to add here, I have said enough except,

As usual…

Always remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.

Scott Pickering
The Pip Accumulator
Twitter: @pipaccumulator

<a href="http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>

BLOG VERSION: #272 FREE NEWSLETTER
DATE: 3<sup>rd</sup> March 2018