(7253,1,'2016-01-30 10:22:43','2016-01-30 15:22:43','<h3 style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong><u>THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU</u></strong></h3>\r\n<h5><strong> </strong>DATE: 30th January 2016\r\nBLOG REFERENCE: PREMIUM SERVICE #87</h5>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li><strong> INTRODUCTION:</strong><strong> </strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThe first monthly draw winner to receive a PREMIUM SERVICE (SILVER) subscription was: ericxxxxx@hotmail.com\r\n\r\nAn email was sent yesterday to advise “Eric” and his access to the PREMIUM SERVICE is now complete and ready to receive trade set-ups for the next 4 weeks free of charge, congratulations Eric.\r\n\r\nTo be a winner of a free subscription; if you subscribe to receive this blog via my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> to receive all publications, you are automatically entered into a free monthly draw. Each month during 2016 one lucky subscriber will receive a free subscription to the PREMIUM SERVICE (SILVER). It costs nothing to subscribe via my website and it could be you that wins!!\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>2.1: WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber, fee based trade set-up option for Forex traders regardless of experience or background. I provide traders suggested trades, and some market commentary related to open trades or factors within the overall market that have my interest.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and the various trade styles plus how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nAdditional information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE you will require a PayPal account.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n2.2: PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE THIS MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">\r\nNET PIPS THIS MONTH SO FAR: +1,399\r\nNET PIPS THIS YEAR SO FAR: +1,399</p>\r\nIf you want more data or detail about the performance and my website does not answer your questions, contact me directly and I will supply the trading data you require. There are NO secrets. There are many, many spreadsheets detailing performance trade by trade and by trade style, way too many to place in this blog. If you are interested in the PREMIUM SERVICE and want more information, all you have to do is ask.\r\n\r\n<u>2.3: PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBER PROMOTION:</u>\r\n\r\nPlease note that until the end of February 2016, I have in place a very special subscription offer. This can be checked out on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by clicking on the FX PROMOTIONS tab at the top of the page.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>3.1: LAST WEEK’S NEWS – MY THOUGHTS:</strong>\r\n\r\n<u>3.1.1: THE FOMC RATE &amp; POLICY STATEMENT: </u>\r\n\r\nIt seems such a long time ago since last Wednesday; that\'s either a sign of age, tiredness or a couple of nights on the booze celebrating my wife’s birthday.\r\n\r\nAs expected Janet Yellen left interest rates unchanged. This was very widely expected; the focus was on the written content of the statement for future clues as to when the FOMC would next raise rates.\r\n\r\nI am finding a lot of this statement scrutiny a little boring, but essentially the committee now states that they are “Closely monitoring global economic and financial developments” and for me the biggest line was the fact that they no longer view the US economy as “Expanding at moderate pace” but replaced this with “Growth slowed late last year”. In addition the FOMC is no longer “Reasonably confident” that inflation will hit 2%...I think that maybe the oil effect is starting to hit home and resonate with them.\r\n\r\nThank God for this, I was getting sick of hearing the word transitory when it came to the effects on inflation by oil. Transitory my arse; more like permanent!\r\n\r\nNow the books are open on whether or not the FED will hike again in March 2016. It’s data dependent we all know that and dot dependent we all know that as well.\r\n\r\nI feel really sorry for the FOMC following the Bernanke approach of making the FED transparent. Transparency is fine in a market that requires continual support, but when things are improving I believe that transparency is a hindrance. Historical economic opinions (e.g. “the dots”) by the FOMC are being used to hold them almost to ransom on future decisions and expectancy.\r\n\r\nAnalysts on Wall Street change opinions with the same frequency as the wind direction, yet the FOMC are pushing themselves into a corner. They have it out there that there should be between 4 and 6 rate hikes in 2016, with many more planned in 2017.\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, this type of communication should just be verbal, if at all, by Janet Yellen at press conferences.\r\n\r\nI am not saying lets get back to the good old days of Alan Greenspan and Jean-Claude Trichet, when we all needed a codebook to understand what was being said, but maybe a middle ground would benefit not just the FOMC but the markets as well.\r\n\r\nI think I may need to lie down, I cannot believe I was offering consideration to a central bank.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3.1.2: THE RBNZ RATE &amp; POLICY STATEMENT:</u>\r\n\r\nRates left unchanged and like every central bank the RBNZ are worried about reaching their inflation target.\r\n\r\nThis hints at more accommodation to support the NZD this year. The Kiwi fell on the data release but like Lazarus it rose from the dead and erased the losses with the NZD/USD within 24 hours.\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u>3.1.3: OIL:</u>\r\n\r\nOil squeezed above $30 and stopped around $35 in a rather frantic hour when it came all the way back down again, then bounced up to around $33 where it looks to be hovering prior to deciding what the next move will be.\r\n\r\nI don\'t know about the symbol WTi it’s more like WTF. Whoever, trades this commodity and makes money I congratulate you. It’s not my cup of tea at all.\r\n\r\nThe movement in the oil price played and continually plays havoc in particular with the USD/CAD and its crosses. 150+ pips moves a day in the USD/CAD are now fairly frequent.\r\n\r\nOil is still pushing and pulling the markets around; it’s “The Big Kahuna”.\r\n\r\nThere are rumours, denials and more rumours about an oil production cut. Yup, I can see that happening… NOT. Well maybe a token, but not enough to bring the supply and demand relationship in line and frankly oil production would have to cease 100% for a few months to rectify the imbalance. Is there that commitment in the dog eat dog environment of oil producers?\r\n\r\nI think that there is more chance of Megyn Kelly voting for Donald Trump, in fact there is more chance of Megyn Kelly having Donald Trump’s babies.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3.1.4: BOJ OUTLOOK REPORT &amp; PRESS CONFERENCE:</u>\r\n\r\nI am covering this later in the blog.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>3.2: THIS WEEK’S NEWS:</strong>\r\n\r\n<u>3.2.1: THIS WEEK’S FOREX NEWS THAT INTERESTS ME:</u>\r\n\r\n(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market other than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to <a href=\"http://www.forexfactory.com\">www.forexfactory.com</a> and <a href=\"http://www.tradingeconomics.com\">www.tradingeconomics.com</a> for a more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).\r\nSUNDAY: CNY – Manufacturing PMi.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: GBP – Manufacturing PMi.\r\nMONDAY: USD – Manufacturing PMi.\r\nMONDAY: AUD – RBA Rate Statement.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: GBP – Construction PMI.\r\nTUESDAY: NZD - Dairy Prices &amp; Employment Data.\r\nTUESDAY: AUD – Trade Balance.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: GBP – Services PMi.\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – ADP NON-FARM Employment Data.\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMi.\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – Crude Oil Inventories.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: GBP – BOE Inflation Report, Bank Rate and Policy Summary.\r\nTHURSDAY: GBP – BOE Mark Carney speaks…\r\nTHURSDAY: AUD – RBA monetary Policy Statement and Retail Sales\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: CAD – Trade Balance and Employment Data.\r\nFRIDAY: USD – Trade balance and Non-Farm Employment Data.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3.2.2: THE USD MAJORS SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS: </u>\r\n\r\n(In this section I have as usual kept my charts as minimalist as possible. With regards to charting in my opinion less is more!! I hope that they are clear. All readers regardless of level of experience should be able to follow my thoughts from my comments to the levels on the charts with ease).\r\n\r\nThis week all my comments are contained on the charts.\r\n\r\nEUR/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.0828\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/eurusd-d-30012016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7218\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7218\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/EURUSD-D-30012016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"EURUSD D 30012016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.4241\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/gbpusd-d-30012016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7219\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7219\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/GBPUSD-D-30012016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"GBPUSD D 30012016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.7081\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/audusd-d-30012016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7216\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7216\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/AUDUSD-D-30012016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"AUDUSD D 30012016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.6479\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/nzdusd-d-30012016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7220\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7220\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/NZDUSD-D-30012016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"NZDUSD D 30012016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.3968\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/usdcad-d-30012016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7221\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7221\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/USDCAD-D-30012016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"USDCAD D 30012016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF - Weekly Closing Price: 1.0227\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/usdchf-d-30012016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7222\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7222\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/USDCHF-D-30012016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"USDCHF D 30012016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY - Weekly Closing Price: 121.11\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/usdjpy-d-30012016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7223\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7223\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/USDJPY-D-30012016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"USDJPY D 30012016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>3.3: WHAT’S ON MY MIND:</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>THERE ARE NO CURRENCY WARS UNTIL A CENTRAL BANK SAYS SO… YEAH RIGHT!</strong></p>\r\nYet another sarcastic title for my featured article; originally from Liverpool sarcasm comes naturally to me and of course heaps of cynicism for good measure.\r\n\r\nSince the start of this year I have three blog articles ready to go in my mind:\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>GREECE and the contagion revisited</li>\r\n	<li>CENTRAL BANK policies are polarizing</li>\r\n	<li>MAJOR BANKS and INSTITUTIONS FX targets 2016</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThis year so far, and we are not out of January yet has been so volatile and confusing at times to make sense of moves, it’s starting to make Thomas Jordan the SNB Chairman’s day in the history books last year look almost like a non-event. Well maybe not a non-event but the move by the SNB was a game changer event that has kept the central bank easing moves at the top of the agenda each month since last January.\r\n\r\nOnly the GREEK bailout tragedy / saga has had more time devoted to it. By the way before the end of 2016 there will be another bailout… ACT IV is on the way.\r\n\r\nMoving on and rather annoyingly as I was not at my desk…\r\n\r\nThursday evening / Friday morning (EST) up steps BOJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda for his press conference and completely surprised the markets with NIRP (Negative Interest Rate Policy).\r\n\r\nIn a copy cat move already made by the SNB, Riksbank (Sweden) and Denmark National Bank he announced NIRP to the token level of 0.1% for banks and other financial institutions holding YEN on deposit. This move he hopes will force lending, purchasing, manufacturing, increased sales and then inflation.\r\n\r\nQuoting our good friend Mario Draghi (ECB)… Kuroda stated he would do “whatever it takes to reflate the economy and achieve the 2% inflation goal” and for good measure re extended once again (3<sup>rd</sup> time in 12 months) the target to achieve this 2% goal; it’s now mid 2017.\r\n\r\nTaking a page from the SNB book of spin, on 21<sup>st</sup> January 2016 in Davos, he said that there was no way that he would be looking at negative interest rates.\r\n\r\nSo copying Draghi’s words and using denials of change similar to the way the SNB played the markets ahead of the EUR/CHF peg removal, did Kuroda say or do anything original?\r\n\r\nBasically, lets not get carried away here. Yes, there was a massive move in the Nikkei equities and the FX JPY pairs understandably so, but after the initial gasp of breath the equity markets rallied, gave back and moved up a little again but basically settled down. Only FX really remained elevated; in my words, elevated = selling opportunities.\r\n\r\n0.1% is not a huge NIRP considering the SNB is at 0.75%.\r\n\r\nI think what we have to look at here are the future intentions of the BOJ. It is only a matter of time before most central banks will have a NIRP… in my opinion.\r\n\r\nWith Kuroda’s book of spin open on page one, chapter one titled: -\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>HOW TO TALK BOLLOCKS</strong></p>\r\nHe passed with flying colours in Davos, the world was snowy and a wee bit chilly but back in Japan all was well, the economy was moving forward moderately in line with all the expectations and negative interest rates were not being considered as an option.\r\n\r\nNow on page two, chapter two: -\r\n\r\n<strong>HOW TO INCREASE THE ITENSITY IN THE CURRENCY WARS WITHOUT SAYING IT\'S A CURRENCY WAR</strong>\r\n\r\nHats off once again, nothing to do with currency devaluation it was all to do with inflation. Such a step-over would make Cristiano Ronaldo and Gerald Deulofeu proud.\r\n\r\nWhat surprises me is that the BOJ has been fighting, dare I say it, DEFLATION since the early 1990’s. These Central Bankers are so good it’s only taken some 25 years to find a new policy weapon that may help.\r\n\r\nOil, China slowdown, emerging markets were also highlighted as reasons for this bold NIRP approach.\r\n\r\nThere is no doubt in my mind that despite central bank pleas to the contrary the actions by the BOJ should increase the currency wars with central banks around the world as they each try to outdo one another by achieving a sustained competitive devaluation to set against the backdrop of slowing world trade and failing commodity prices. The jury is out on whether NIRP will eventually help create inflation, but it has sent a clear message to the markets about the intentions of the BOJ.\r\n\r\nSo what now for the FED?\r\n\r\nMore importantly what does Mario Draghi do now at the ECB by way of response?\r\n\r\nWe shall wait and see. There is quite sometime now until the next ECB press conference and interest rate announcement, which is in early, March. Would you not just love to be a fly on the wall in Draghi’s office? Can you imagine the conversations that have and will be taking place between Frankfurt and Berlin about what to do in response?\r\n\r\nIf Draghi responds aggressively, I think that it’s fair to say GAME ON.\r\n\r\nFrom a trading perspective, subscribers to the PREMIUM SERVICE will know that for about the last week or so I had been lining up short trades of the JPY pairs at higher levels. I still intend to do this and my updated charts are contained later in the blog in the PREMIUM SERVICE subscriber section.\r\n\r\nOn a general note, I do consider the moves upwards all fadeable. I rather foolishly left a limit order USD/JPY short open in one of my accounts and I was away for the BOJ release. I took a hit on this trade without even seeing it open and stop me out…argh!!\r\n\r\nThe USD/JPY was the only JPY pair that was in my short “sell zone” area. This coming week I will be looking to establish short trades in most JPY pairs if my price levels are reached.\r\n\r\nWe should remember that there will be the usual pushing and pulling in price action after a central bank policy shift so it makes sense to wait and not rush in until matters have calmed a little.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) EXCLUSIVE CONTENT:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(This area contains exclusive content for PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) subscribers)\r\n\r\n<strong>4.1: THE PREMIUM SERVICE – TRADING REVIEW: </strong>\r\n\r\n(This section can cover a multitude of points / facts etc. Basically it’s a 360-degree review, which I think should interest subscribers):\r\n\r\nWith January now completed I am happy that 1,399 pips of profit were generated.\r\n\r\nI now have to work on the fine-tuning I referred to last week.\r\n\r\nIn general terms, I am delighted to have such a good start to the trading year, although I am 414 pips behind the 2015 performance at this stage, if you recall January last year was a “stonker” of a start all things considered.\r\n\r\nThanks for all the feedback, it is very much appreciated, keeps me motivated and confident in what I am trying to achieve.\r\n\r\nI am very confident moving forward and see many opportunities in the months ahead.\r\n\r\nOver the past couple of weeks one or two of you have contacted me stating that charts from the emailed PDF copy, cannot be expanded and an error 404 message is given. I have checked this out with my higher authority and we have discovered that it is an intermittent issue not just to my pages. If you get the message, try logging out and login again or try refreshing the page. It comes through on the second attempt. Last weekend when the error message was pointed out to me I found no error message when I tried to expand the chart. Then mid-week I did. I do not know what to say other than be patient with it, it does come back. Hopefully there will be a bug fix very soon.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>4.2: TRADE STYLE DEFINITIONS:</strong>\r\n\r\n<u>4.2.1: RADAR TRADES:\r\n\r\n</u>These are pre-meditated entry trades set from either Fibonacci levels, pivot points or previous support and resistance based off a combination of horizontal or trend line support or resistance.\r\nThe goal is always if possible to swing trade these trades by establishing a position that if market conditions apply allow the trade to gather traction and develop into a longer-term position trade.\r\n\r\n<u>4.2.2: FLASH TRADES:\r\n\r\n</u>Mainly simply, opportunist trades in LIVE market conditions. These trades are either based off a pullback strategy, a GIMME10 strategy, or off momentum in a trading pair at the time of entry.\r\nThe goal is to either take 10-30 pips or see a sufficient move to place a protective stop in place to see if a swing trade develops.\r\nSome FLASH TRADES may form part of an overall trading plan with a given currency pair, but the entry could not be made via a LIMIT ORDER.\r\n\r\nIn addition in 2016, some FLASH TRADES can be of a longer duration, with very specific goals.\r\n\r\n<u>4.2.3: FUNDAMENTAL TRADES:\r\n\r\n</u>These will be trades based off my TRADING PLAN goals for trades in line with my longer-term market views.\r\nTrades in this area will use in addition Fibonacci levels, Pivot points, trend lines and prior support and resistance levels, weekly and monthly ATR’s (Average True Ranges) when setting Stop Loss levels.\r\nThese trades are hopefully of a longer-term nature. They will be initially “single-lot” sized trades due to the wider stop placements that will be applied.\r\n\r\n<u>4.2.4: PART-TIME TRADER TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\nThese trade set-ups are intended to have a longer-term trading perspective. They are not only targeted at traders who consider they are part-time Forex traders; obviously, all traders can of course take advantage. (My definition of a part-time trader is one who is only able to look at their computer screens, or, mobile devices to check trades two or three times a day).\r\n\r\nA key feature of these set-ups is that they have much wider than normal stops to allow for market swings and volatility. The trades therefore have a smaller position size to allow for the swings in volatility, but multiple trades in the same currency pair are added when the core trade has gained traction in the desired direction.\r\n\r\nMy goal is to have multiple trades open/live at any one time and maybe 2/3 open/live trades with the same currency pair. I will of course suggest to take some profits along the way, but hopefully at the same time letting trades run as far as possible.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>4.3: THE PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE SPREADSHEETS:</strong><u>\r\n</u>\r\n<u>4.3.1: RADAR TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\n<u><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/radar-trades/radar1-jan16/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7200\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7200\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/RADAR1-JAN16.png\" alt=\"RADAR1 JAN16\" width=\"513\" height=\"573\" /></a></u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/radar-trades/radar2-jan16/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7201\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7201\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/RADAR2-JAN16.png\" alt=\"RADAR2 JAN16\" width=\"488\" height=\"571\" /></a></u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/radar-trades/radar-ytd-jan16/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7202\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7202\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/RADAR-YTD-JAN16.png\" alt=\"RADAR YTD JAN16\" width=\"423\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n\r\n4.3.2: FLASH TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/flash-trades-2/flash-jan16/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7203\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7203\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/FLASH-JAN16.png\" alt=\"FLASH JAN16\" width=\"492\" height=\"573\" /></a>\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/flash-trades-2/flash-ytd-jan16/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7204\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7204\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/FLASH-YTD-JAN16.png\" alt=\"FLASH YTD JAN16\" width=\"421\" height=\"449\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.3.3: FUNDAMENTAL TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/fundamental-trades/fun-january-2016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7205\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7205\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/FUN-JANUARY-2016.png\" alt=\"FUN JANUARY 2016\" width=\"502\" height=\"554\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/fundamental-trades/fun-ytd-jan16/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7206\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7206\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/FUN-YTD-JAN16.png\" alt=\"FUN YTD JAN16\" width=\"433\" height=\"443\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n\r\n4.3.4: PART-TIME TRADER TRADES:</u><u>\r\n\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/part-time-trader-trades/parttime1-jan16/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7207\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7207\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/PARTTIME1-JAN16.png\" alt=\"PARTTIME1 JAN16\" width=\"489\" height=\"546\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/part-time-trader-trades/parttime2-jan16/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7208\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7208\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/PARTTIME2-JAN16.png\" alt=\"PARTTIME2 JAN16\" width=\"499\" height=\"544\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/part-time-trader-trades/parttime-ytd-jan16/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7209\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7209\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/PARTTIME-YTD-JAN16.png\" alt=\"PARTTIME YTD JAN16\" width=\"416\" height=\"446\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u>4.3.5: MONTH TO DATE- SUMMARY OF PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\n\r\n<u><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/combined-trades-profit/prem-serv-profits1-30012016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7198\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7198\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/PREM-SERV-PROFITS1-30012016.png\" alt=\"PREM SERV PROFITS1 30012016\" width=\"551\" height=\"530\" /></a></u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.3.6: YEAR TO DATE SUMMARY OF PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\n\r\n<u><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/combined-trades-profit/ps-profits2-jan16/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7249\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7249\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/PS-PROFITS2-JAN16.png\" alt=\"PS PROFITS2 JAN16\" width=\"515\" height=\"525\" /></a></u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.3.7: PROFIT/LOSS TRADE RATIOS BY MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/completed-trades-profit-loss-ratios/ps-pl-ratios-jan2016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7212\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7212\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/PS-PL-RATIOS-JAN2016.png\" alt=\"PS P&amp;L RATIOS JAN2016\" width=\"405\" height=\"512\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.3.8: RISK/REWARD REVIEW BY MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/completed-trades-risk-reward-analysis/premserv-riskreward-jan16/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7211\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7211\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/PREMSERV-RISKREWARD-JAN16.png\" alt=\"PREMSERV  RISKREWARD  JAN16\" width=\"423\" height=\"529\" /></a></u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.3.9: PIP COMPARISON 2016 versus 2015 BY MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\n<u><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/6869-2/ps-pip-comparison-jan16/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7214\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7214\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/PS-PIP-COMPARISON-JAN16.png\" alt=\"PS PIP COMPARISON JAN16\" width=\"594\" height=\"434\" /></a></u>\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>4.4: THE PREMIUM SERVICE - PREFERRED FX BROKER NEWS UPDATES:</strong>\r\n\r\nI did not manage to speak with Investors Europe, however from the others there is nothing really to report other than they seem to indicate a slower start to 2016 than previous years, in both new traders and volumes.\r\n\r\nFewer traders makes a lot of sense to me. I know after the EUR/CHF peg removal many traders gave up and moved to other markets.\r\n\r\nLast year was a particularly difficult trading year and the peg removal was the straw that broke the camels back for many traders. I also think that around that time many of the gamblers left FX as well. Betting on a sure thing like the SNB was not such a sure safe bet after all!\r\n\r\nI strongly suspect that the brokers are suffering more than they let on as I see margin percentages being increased by one broker or another almost daily now.\r\n\r\nFrom my groups perspective with my brokers I am told all is good.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>4.5: USD MAJOR PAIRS WITH LONGER-TERM MATCHING TRENDS:</strong>\r\n\r\n(The following USD majors have Short Term (DAILY), Medium Term (WEEKLY) and Long Term (MONTHLY) charts all trending in the same direction).\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/ps-trending-pairs-30012016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7215\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7215\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/PS-TRENDING-PAIRS-30012016.png\" alt=\"PS TRENDING PAIRS 30012016\" width=\"491\" height=\"580\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>4.6: LIVE TRADES:\r\n\r\n</strong>\r\n\r\nThere are no LIVE trades at the moment.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>4.7: LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n\r\n</strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/ps-live-trades-30012016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7213\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7213\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/PS-LIVE-TRADES-30012016.png\" alt=\"PS LIVE TRADES 30012016\" width=\"686\" height=\"432\" /></a> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>4.8: REVIEW OF OPEN LIMIT ORDER TRADES NOT YET TRIGGERED:</strong>\r\n\r\n<u>4.8.1: RADAR LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n\r\n</u>RT625 – USD/CHF:\r\nI am still holding this, but will cancel next week if the breakout with the CHF continues.\r\n\r\n<u>4.8.2: FUNDAMENTAL LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n\r\n</u>FUN253 – AUD/NZD:\r\nI desperately want this trade to trigger. I see this as one of the trades of 2016 if all the ducks line up ready!\r\n\r\nFUN256 – EUR/GBP:\r\nThis trade is still valid as it is this pair’s resistance level, where I believe the pair will turn lower.\r\n\r\n<u>4.8.3: PART-TIME TRADER LIMIT ORDER TRADES: </u>\r\n\r\nPART001 – EUR/USD:\r\nThis trade is still in play given that up until last Friday morning, I though that I had a 50-50 chance of it triggering. I will leave for now.\r\n\r\nPART022 – AUD/NZD:\r\nI desperately want this trade to trigger. I see this as one of the trades of 2016 if all the ducks line up ready!\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>4.9: CHARTS THAT ARE INTERESTING TO ME, THAT COULD BECOME A TRADE SET-UP IN THE NEAR FUTURE:\r\n</strong>\r\n\r\nMy comments (if any) are included on the charts. There are quite a few this week, I have including my revised JPY target entry levels.\r\n\r\nDo not expect a bucketful of trades Sunday evening. It is a very busy economic data release this week.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/chfjpy-daily-30012016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7236\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7236\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/CHFJPY-DAILY-30012016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"CHFJPY DAILY 30012016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/nzdjpy-d-30012016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7233\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7233\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/NZDJPY-D-30012016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"NZDJPY D 30012016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/nzdchf-weekly-30012016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7232\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7232\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/NZDCHF-WEEKLY-30012016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"NZDCHF WEEKLY 30012016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/nzdcad-daily-30012016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7231\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7231\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/NZDCAD-DAILY-30012016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"NZDCAD DAILY 30012016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/gbpjpy-d-30012016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7230\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7230\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/GBPJPY-D-30012016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"GBPJPY D 30012016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/eurjpy-d-30012016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7229\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7229\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/EURJPY-D-30012016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"EURJPY D 30012016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/eurgbp-d-30012016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7228\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7228\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/EURGBP-D-30012016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"EURGBP D 30012016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/cadjpy-d-30012016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7226\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7226\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/CADJPY-D-30012016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"CADJPY D 30012016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/cadchf-weekly-30012016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7225\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7225\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/CADCHF-WEEKLY-30012016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"CADCHF WEEKLY 30012016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/audjpy-d-30012016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7224\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7224\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/AUDJPY-D-30012016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"AUDJPY D 30012016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n	<li><strong> TIME OUT – “AT THE END OF THE DAY”:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThis is a big week for economic data on the back of the FED, RBNZ and BOJ. We have the BOE and RBA this week as well NFP and a cluster of PMi reports and Trade balance numbers, plus a few other employment reports away from the U.S.\r\n\r\nI expect increasing volatility, especially after the BOJ policy shift. Do not be surprised to see and hear several ECB related quotes this week as the reaction to the BOJ change filters across.\r\n\r\nIt will be an interesting week, but also one that we must be careful with. The divergent trade is still in place. I do not see Janet Yellen reversing course. This is not how a central bank operates. It would however, not surprise me to see some commentary being unofficially released vis-à-vis the “Currency Wars” discussions / debates that will flood the news channels and Sunday morning financial programs on TV.\r\n\r\nAs traders we really have to be careful trading. Lower position sizes and don’t trade for the sake of trading. We really need to let the trades come to us, rather than chase. Believe me, I know that it is very tempting to chase these currencies at the moment.\r\n\r\nThere is only one solution in my opinion, trade lean and remain keen – that means trade with smaller positions with wider stops and be alert to moves.\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nTake care,\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','THERE ARE NO CURRENCY WARS UNTIL A CENTRAL BANK SAYS SO… YEAH RIGHT!','','inherit','closed','closed','','7252-revision-v1','','','2016-01-30 10:22:43','2016-01-30 15:22:43','',7252,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/7252-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(7254,1,'2016-01-30 10:25:36','2016-01-30 15:25:36','<h3 style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong><u>THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU</u></strong></h3>\r\n<h5><strong> </strong>DATE: 30th January 2016\r\nBLOG REFERENCE: PREMIUM SERVICE #87</h5>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li><strong> INTRODUCTION:</strong><strong> </strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThe first monthly draw winner to receive a PREMIUM SERVICE (SILVER) subscription was: ericxxxxx@hotmail.com\r\n\r\nAn email was sent yesterday to advise “Eric” and his access to the PREMIUM SERVICE is now complete and ready to receive trade set-ups for the next 4 weeks free of charge, congratulations Eric.\r\n\r\nTo be a winner of a free subscription; if you subscribe to receive this blog via my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> to receive all publications, you are automatically entered into a free monthly draw. Each month during 2016 one lucky subscriber will receive a free subscription to the PREMIUM SERVICE (SILVER). It costs nothing to subscribe via my website and it could be you that wins!!\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>2.1: WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber, fee based trade set-up option for Forex traders regardless of experience or background. I provide traders suggested trades, and some market commentary related to open trades or factors within the overall market that have my interest.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and the various trade styles plus how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nAdditional information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE you will require a PayPal account.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n2.2: PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE THIS MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">NET PIPS THIS MONTH SO FAR: +1,399\r\nNET PIPS THIS YEAR SO FAR: +1,399</p>\r\nIf you want more data or detail about the performance and my website does not answer your questions, contact me directly and I will supply the trading data you require. There are NO secrets. There are many, many spreadsheets detailing performance trade by trade and by trade style, way too many to place in this blog. If you are interested in the PREMIUM SERVICE and want more information, all you have to do is ask.\r\n\r\n<u>2.3: PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBER PROMOTION:</u>\r\n\r\nPlease note that until the end of February 2016, I have in place a very special subscription offer. This can be checked out on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by clicking on the FX PROMOTIONS tab at the top of the page.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>3.1: LAST WEEK’S NEWS – MY THOUGHTS:</strong>\r\n\r\n<u>3.1.1: THE FOMC RATE &amp; POLICY STATEMENT: </u>\r\n\r\nIt seems such a long time ago since last Wednesday; that\'s either a sign of age, tiredness or a couple of nights on the booze celebrating my wife’s birthday.\r\n\r\nAs expected Janet Yellen left interest rates unchanged. This was very widely expected; the focus was on the written content of the statement for future clues as to when the FOMC would next raise rates.\r\n\r\nI am finding a lot of this statement scrutiny a little boring, but essentially the committee now states that they are “Closely monitoring global economic and financial developments” and for me the biggest line was the fact that they no longer view the US economy as “Expanding at moderate pace” but replaced this with “Growth slowed late last year”. In addition the FOMC is no longer “Reasonably confident” that inflation will hit 2%...I think that maybe the oil effect is starting to hit home and resonate with them.\r\n\r\nThank God for this, I was getting sick of hearing the word transitory when it came to the effects on inflation by oil. Transitory my arse; more like permanent!\r\n\r\nNow the books are open on whether or not the FED will hike again in March 2016. It’s data dependent we all know that and dot dependent we all know that as well.\r\n\r\nI feel really sorry for the FOMC following the Bernanke approach of making the FED transparent. Transparency is fine in a market that requires continual support, but when things are improving I believe that transparency is a hindrance. Historical economic opinions (e.g. “the dots”) by the FOMC are being used to hold them almost to ransom on future decisions and expectancy.\r\n\r\nAnalysts on Wall Street change opinions with the same frequency as the wind direction, yet the FOMC are pushing themselves into a corner. They have it out there that there should be between 4 and 6 rate hikes in 2016, with many more planned in 2017.\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, this type of communication should just be verbal, if at all, by Janet Yellen at press conferences.\r\n\r\nI am not saying lets get back to the good old days of Alan Greenspan and Jean-Claude Trichet, when we all needed a codebook to understand what was being said, but maybe a middle ground would benefit not just the FOMC but the markets as well.\r\n\r\nI think I may need to lie down, I cannot believe I was offering consideration to a central bank.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3.1.2: THE RBNZ RATE &amp; POLICY STATEMENT:</u>\r\n\r\nRates left unchanged and like every central bank the RBNZ are worried about reaching their inflation target.\r\n\r\nThis hints at more accommodation to support the NZD this year. The Kiwi fell on the data release but like Lazarus it rose from the dead and erased the losses with the NZD/USD within 24 hours.\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u>3.1.3: OIL:</u>\r\n\r\nOil squeezed above $30 and stopped around $35 in a rather frantic hour when it came all the way back down again, then bounced up to around $33 where it looks to be hovering prior to deciding what the next move will be.\r\n\r\nI don\'t know about the symbol WTi it’s more like WTF. Whoever, trades this commodity and makes money I congratulate you. It’s not my cup of tea at all.\r\n\r\nThe movement in the oil price played and continually plays havoc in particular with the USD/CAD and its crosses. 150+ pips moves a day in the USD/CAD are now fairly frequent.\r\n\r\nOil is still pushing and pulling the markets around; it’s “The Big Kahuna”.\r\n\r\nThere are rumours, denials and more rumours about an oil production cut. Yup, I can see that happening… NOT. Well maybe a token, but not enough to bring the supply and demand relationship in line and frankly oil production would have to cease 100% for a few months to rectify the imbalance. Is there that commitment in the dog eat dog environment of oil producers?\r\n\r\nI think that there is more chance of Megyn Kelly voting for Donald Trump, in fact there is more chance of Megyn Kelly having Donald Trump’s babies.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3.1.4: BOJ OUTLOOK REPORT &amp; PRESS CONFERENCE:</u>\r\n\r\nI am covering this later in the blog.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>3.2: THIS WEEK’S NEWS:</strong>\r\n\r\n<u>3.2.1: THIS WEEK’S FOREX NEWS THAT INTERESTS ME:</u>\r\n\r\n(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market other than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to <a href=\"http://www.forexfactory.com\">www.forexfactory.com</a> and <a href=\"http://www.tradingeconomics.com\">www.tradingeconomics.com</a> for a more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).\r\nSUNDAY: CNY – Manufacturing PMi.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: GBP – Manufacturing PMi.\r\nMONDAY: USD – Manufacturing PMi.\r\nMONDAY: AUD – RBA Rate Statement.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: GBP – Construction PMI.\r\nTUESDAY: NZD - Dairy Prices &amp; Employment Data.\r\nTUESDAY: AUD – Trade Balance.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: GBP – Services PMi.\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – ADP NON-FARM Employment Data.\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMi.\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – Crude Oil Inventories.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: GBP – BOE Inflation Report, Bank Rate and Policy Summary.\r\nTHURSDAY: GBP – BOE Mark Carney speaks…\r\nTHURSDAY: AUD – RBA monetary Policy Statement and Retail Sales\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: CAD – Trade Balance and Employment Data.\r\nFRIDAY: USD – Trade balance and Non-Farm Employment Data.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3.2.2: THE USD MAJORS SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS: </u>\r\n\r\n(In this section I have as usual kept my charts as minimalist as possible. With regards to charting in my opinion less is more!! I hope that they are clear. All readers regardless of level of experience should be able to follow my thoughts from my comments to the levels on the charts with ease).\r\n\r\nThis week all my comments are contained on the charts.\r\n\r\nEUR/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.0828\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/eurusd-d-30012016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7218\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7218\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/EURUSD-D-30012016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"EURUSD D 30012016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.4241\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/gbpusd-d-30012016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7219\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7219\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/GBPUSD-D-30012016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"GBPUSD D 30012016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.7081\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/audusd-d-30012016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7216\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7216\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/AUDUSD-D-30012016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"AUDUSD D 30012016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.6479\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/nzdusd-d-30012016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7220\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7220\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/NZDUSD-D-30012016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"NZDUSD D 30012016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.3968\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/usdcad-d-30012016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7221\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7221\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/USDCAD-D-30012016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"USDCAD D 30012016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF - Weekly Closing Price: 1.0227\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/usdchf-d-30012016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7222\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7222\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/USDCHF-D-30012016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"USDCHF D 30012016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY - Weekly Closing Price: 121.11<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/usdjpy-d-30012016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7223\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7223\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/USDJPY-D-30012016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"USDJPY D 30012016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>3.3: WHAT’S ON MY MIND:</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>THERE ARE NO CURRENCY WARS UNTIL A CENTRAL BANK SAYS SO… YEAH RIGHT!</strong></p>\r\nYet another sarcastic title for my featured article; originally from Liverpool sarcasm comes naturally to me and of course heaps of cynicism for good measure.\r\n\r\nSince the start of this year I have three blog articles ready to go in my mind:\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>GREECE and the contagion revisited</li>\r\n	<li>CENTRAL BANK policies are polarizing</li>\r\n	<li>MAJOR BANKS and INSTITUTIONS FX targets 2016</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThis year so far, and we are not out of January yet has been so volatile and confusing at times to make sense of moves, it’s starting to make Thomas Jordan the SNB Chairman’s day in the history books last year look almost like a non-event. Well maybe not a non-event but the move by the SNB was a game changer event that has kept the central bank easing moves at the top of the agenda each month since last January.\r\n\r\nOnly the GREEK bailout tragedy / saga has had more time devoted to it. By the way before the end of 2016 there will be another bailout… ACT IV is on the way.\r\n\r\nMoving on and rather annoyingly as I was not at my desk…\r\n\r\nThursday evening / Friday morning (EST) up steps BOJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda for his press conference and completely surprised the markets with NIRP (Negative Interest Rate Policy).\r\n\r\nIn a copy cat move already made by the SNB, Riksbank (Sweden) and Denmark National Bank he announced NIRP to the token level of 0.1% for banks and other financial institutions holding YEN on deposit. This move he hopes will force lending, purchasing, manufacturing, increased sales and then inflation.\r\n\r\nQuoting our good friend Mario Draghi (ECB)… Kuroda stated he would do “whatever it takes to reflate the economy and achieve the 2% inflation goal” and for good measure re extended once again (3<sup>rd</sup> time in 12 months) the target to achieve this 2% goal; it’s now mid 2017.\r\n\r\nTaking a page from the SNB book of spin, on 21<sup>st</sup> January 2016 in Davos, he said that there was no way that he would be looking at negative interest rates.\r\n\r\nSo copying Draghi’s words and using denials of change similar to the way the SNB played the markets ahead of the EUR/CHF peg removal, did Kuroda say or do anything original?\r\n\r\nBasically, lets not get carried away here. Yes, there was a massive move in the Nikkei equities and the FX JPY pairs understandably so, but after the initial gasp of breath the equity markets rallied, gave back and moved up a little again but basically settled down. Only FX really remained elevated; in my words, elevated = selling opportunities.\r\n\r\n0.1% is not a huge NIRP considering the SNB is at 0.75%.\r\n\r\nI think what we have to look at here are the future intentions of the BOJ. It is only a matter of time before most central banks will have a NIRP… in my opinion.\r\n\r\nWith Kuroda’s book of spin open on page one, chapter one titled: -\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>HOW TO TALK BOLLOCKS</strong></p>\r\nHe passed with flying colours in Davos, the world was snowy and a wee bit chilly but back in Japan all was well, the economy was moving forward moderately in line with all the expectations and negative interest rates were not being considered as an option.\r\n\r\nNow on page two, chapter two: -\r\n\r\n<strong>HOW TO INCREASE THE INTENSITY IN THE CURRENCY WARS WITHOUT SAYING IT\'S A CURRENCY WAR</strong>\r\n\r\nHats off once again, nothing to do with currency devaluation it was all to do with inflation. Such a step-over would make Cristiano Ronaldo and Gerald Deulofeu proud.\r\n\r\nWhat surprises me is that the BOJ has been fighting, dare I say it, DEFLATION since the early 1990’s. These Central Bankers are so good it’s only taken some 25 years to find a new policy weapon that may help.\r\n\r\nOil, China slowdown, emerging markets were also highlighted as reasons for this bold NIRP approach.\r\n\r\nThere is no doubt in my mind that despite central bank pleas to the contrary the actions by the BOJ should increase the currency wars with central banks around the world as they each try to outdo one another by achieving a sustained competitive devaluation to set against the backdrop of slowing world trade and failing commodity prices. The jury is out on whether NIRP will eventually help create inflation, but it has sent a clear message to the markets about the intentions of the BOJ.\r\n\r\nSo what now for the FED?\r\n\r\nMore importantly what does Mario Draghi do now at the ECB by way of response?\r\n\r\nWe shall wait and see. There is quite sometime now until the next ECB press conference and interest rate announcement, which is in early, March. Would you not just love to be a fly on the wall in Draghi’s office? Can you imagine the conversations that have and will be taking place between Frankfurt and Berlin about what to do in response?\r\n\r\nIf Draghi responds aggressively, I think that it’s fair to say GAME ON.\r\n\r\nFrom a trading perspective, subscribers to the PREMIUM SERVICE will know that for about the last week or so I had been lining up short trades of the JPY pairs at higher levels. I still intend to do this and my updated charts are contained later in the blog in the PREMIUM SERVICE subscriber section.\r\n\r\nOn a general note, I do consider the moves upwards all fadeable. I rather foolishly left a limit order USD/JPY short open in one of my accounts and I was away for the BOJ release. I took a hit on this trade without even seeing it open and stop me out…argh!!\r\n\r\nThe USD/JPY was the only JPY pair that was in my short “sell zone” area. This coming week I will be looking to establish short trades in most JPY pairs if my price levels are reached.\r\n\r\nWe should remember that there will be the usual pushing and pulling in price action after a central bank policy shift so it makes sense to wait and not rush in until matters have calmed a little.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) EXCLUSIVE CONTENT:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(This area contains exclusive content for PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) subscribers)\r\n\r\n<strong>4.1: THE PREMIUM SERVICE – TRADING REVIEW: </strong>\r\n\r\n(This section can cover a multitude of points / facts etc. Basically it’s a 360-degree review, which I think should interest subscribers):\r\n\r\nWith January now completed I am happy that 1,399 pips of profit were generated.\r\n\r\nI now have to work on the fine-tuning I referred to last week.\r\n\r\nIn general terms, I am delighted to have such a good start to the trading year, although I am 414 pips behind the 2015 performance at this stage, if you recall January last year was a “stonker” of a start all things considered.\r\n\r\nThanks for all the feedback, it is very much appreciated, keeps me motivated and confident in what I am trying to achieve.\r\n\r\nI am very confident moving forward and see many opportunities in the months ahead.\r\n\r\nOver the past couple of weeks one or two of you have contacted me stating that charts from the emailed PDF copy, cannot be expanded and an error 404 message is given. I have checked this out with my higher authority and we have discovered that it is an intermittent issue not just to my pages. If you get the message, try logging out and login again or try refreshing the page. It comes through on the second attempt. Last weekend when the error message was pointed out to me I found no error message when I tried to expand the chart. Then mid-week I did. I do not know what to say other than be patient with it, it does come back. Hopefully there will be a bug fix very soon.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>4.2: TRADE STYLE DEFINITIONS:</strong>\r\n\r\n<u>4.2.1: RADAR TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\nThese are pre-meditated entry trades set from either Fibonacci levels, pivot points or previous support and resistance based off a combination of horizontal or trend line support or resistance.\r\nThe goal is always if possible to swing trade these trades by establishing a position that if market conditions apply allow the trade to gather traction and develop into a longer-term position trade.\r\n\r\n<u>4.2.2: FLASH TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\nMainly simply, opportunist trades in LIVE market conditions. These trades are either based off a pullback strategy, a GIMME10 strategy, or off momentum in a trading pair at the time of entry.\r\nThe goal is to either take 10-30 pips or see a sufficient move to place a protective stop in place to see if a swing trade develops.\r\nSome FLASH TRADES may form part of an overall trading plan with a given currency pair, but the entry could not be made via a LIMIT ORDER.\r\n\r\nIn addition in 2016, some FLASH TRADES can be of a longer duration, with very specific goals.\r\n\r\n<u>4.2.3: FUNDAMENTAL TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\nThese will be trades based off my TRADING PLAN goals for trades in line with my longer-term market views.\r\nTrades in this area will use in addition Fibonacci levels, Pivot points, trend lines and prior support and resistance levels, weekly and monthly ATR’s (Average True Ranges) when setting Stop Loss levels.\r\nThese trades are hopefully of a longer-term nature. They will be initially “single-lot” sized trades due to the wider stop placements that will be applied.\r\n\r\n<u>4.2.4: PART-TIME TRADER TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\nThese trade set-ups are intended to have a longer-term trading perspective. They are not only targeted at traders who consider they are part-time Forex traders; obviously, all traders can of course take advantage. (My definition of a part-time trader is one who is only able to look at their computer screens, or, mobile devices to check trades two or three times a day).\r\n\r\nA key feature of these set-ups is that they have much wider than normal stops to allow for market swings and volatility. The trades therefore have a smaller position size to allow for the swings in volatility, but multiple trades in the same currency pair are added when the core trade has gained traction in the desired direction.\r\n\r\nMy goal is to have multiple trades open/live at any one time and maybe 2/3 open/live trades with the same currency pair. I will of course suggest to take some profits along the way, but hopefully at the same time letting trades run as far as possible.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>4.3: THE PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE SPREADSHEETS:</strong><u>\r\n</u>\r\n<u>4.3.1: RADAR TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\n<u><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/radar-trades/radar1-jan16/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7200\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7200\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/RADAR1-JAN16.png\" alt=\"RADAR1 JAN16\" width=\"513\" height=\"573\" /></a></u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/radar-trades/radar2-jan16/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7201\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7201\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/RADAR2-JAN16.png\" alt=\"RADAR2 JAN16\" width=\"488\" height=\"571\" /></a></u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/radar-trades/radar-ytd-jan16/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7202\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7202\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/RADAR-YTD-JAN16.png\" alt=\"RADAR YTD JAN16\" width=\"423\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.3.2: FLASH TRADES:\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/flash-trades-2/flash-jan16/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7203\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7203\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/FLASH-JAN16.png\" alt=\"FLASH JAN16\" width=\"492\" height=\"573\" /></a>\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/flash-trades-2/flash-ytd-jan16/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7204\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7204\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/FLASH-YTD-JAN16.png\" alt=\"FLASH YTD JAN16\" width=\"421\" height=\"449\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.3.3: FUNDAMENTAL TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/fundamental-trades/fun-january-2016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7205\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7205\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/FUN-JANUARY-2016.png\" alt=\"FUN JANUARY 2016\" width=\"502\" height=\"554\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/fundamental-trades/fun-ytd-jan16/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7206\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7206\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/FUN-YTD-JAN16.png\" alt=\"FUN YTD JAN16\" width=\"433\" height=\"443\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.3.4: PART-TIME TRADER TRADES:<u></u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/part-time-trader-trades/parttime1-jan16/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7207\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7207\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/PARTTIME1-JAN16.png\" alt=\"PARTTIME1 JAN16\" width=\"489\" height=\"546\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/part-time-trader-trades/parttime2-jan16/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7208\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7208\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/PARTTIME2-JAN16.png\" alt=\"PARTTIME2 JAN16\" width=\"499\" height=\"544\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/part-time-trader-trades/parttime-ytd-jan16/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7209\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7209\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/PARTTIME-YTD-JAN16.png\" alt=\"PARTTIME YTD JAN16\" width=\"416\" height=\"446\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u>4.3.5: MONTH TO DATE  SUMMARY OF PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\n\r\n<u><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/combined-trades-profit/prem-serv-profits1-30012016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7198\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7198\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/PREM-SERV-PROFITS1-30012016.png\" alt=\"PREM SERV PROFITS1 30012016\" width=\"551\" height=\"530\" /></a></u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.3.6: YEAR TO DATE SUMMARY OF PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\n\r\n<u><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/combined-trades-profit/ps-profits2-jan16/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7249\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7249\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/PS-PROFITS2-JAN16.png\" alt=\"PS PROFITS2 JAN16\" width=\"515\" height=\"525\" /></a></u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.3.7: PROFIT/LOSS TRADE RATIOS BY MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/completed-trades-profit-loss-ratios/ps-pl-ratios-jan2016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7212\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7212\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/PS-PL-RATIOS-JAN2016.png\" alt=\"PS P&amp;L RATIOS JAN2016\" width=\"405\" height=\"512\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.3.8: RISK/REWARD REVIEW BY MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/completed-trades-risk-reward-analysis/premserv-riskreward-jan16/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7211\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7211\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/PREMSERV-RISKREWARD-JAN16.png\" alt=\"PREMSERV RISKREWARD JAN16\" width=\"423\" height=\"529\" /></a></u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.3.9: PIP COMPARISON 2016 versus 2015 BY MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\n<u><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/6869-2/ps-pip-comparison-jan16/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7214\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7214\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/PS-PIP-COMPARISON-JAN16.png\" alt=\"PS PIP COMPARISON JAN16\" width=\"594\" height=\"434\" /></a></u>\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>4.4: THE PREMIUM SERVICE - PREFERRED FX BROKER NEWS UPDATES:</strong>\r\n\r\nI did not manage to speak with Investors Europe, however from the others there is nothing really to report other than they seem to indicate a slower start to 2016 than previous years, in both new traders and volumes.\r\n\r\nFewer traders makes a lot of sense to me. I know after the EUR/CHF peg removal many traders gave up and moved to other markets.\r\n\r\nLast year was a particularly difficult trading year and the peg removal was the straw that broke the camels back for many traders. I also think that around that time many of the gamblers left FX as well. Betting on a sure thing like the SNB was not such a sure safe bet after all!\r\n\r\nI strongly suspect that the brokers are suffering more than they let on as I see margin percentages being increased by one broker or another almost daily now.\r\n\r\nFrom my groups perspective with my brokers I am told all is good.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>4.5: USD MAJOR PAIRS WITH LONGER-TERM MATCHING TRENDS:</strong>\r\n\r\n(The following USD majors have Short Term (DAILY), Medium Term (WEEKLY) and Long Term (MONTHLY) charts all trending in the same direction).\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/ps-trending-pairs-30012016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7215\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7215\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/PS-TRENDING-PAIRS-30012016.png\" alt=\"PS TRENDING PAIRS 30012016\" width=\"491\" height=\"580\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>4.6: LIVE TRADES:</strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThere are no LIVE trades at the moment.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>4.7: LIMIT ORDER TRADES:</strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/ps-live-trades-30012016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7213\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7213\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/PS-LIVE-TRADES-30012016.png\" alt=\"PS LIVE TRADES 30012016\" width=\"686\" height=\"432\" /></a> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>4.8: REVIEW OF OPEN LIMIT ORDER TRADES NOT YET TRIGGERED:</strong>\r\n\r\n<u>4.8.1: RADAR LIMIT ORDER TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\nRT625 – USD/CHF:\r\nI am still holding this, but will cancel next week if the breakout with the CHF continues.\r\n\r\n<u>4.8.2: FUNDAMENTAL LIMIT ORDER TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\nFUN253 – AUD/NZD:\r\nI desperately want this trade to trigger. I see this as one of the trades of 2016 if all the ducks line up ready!\r\n\r\nFUN256 – EUR/GBP:\r\nThis trade is still valid as it is this pair’s resistance level, where I believe the pair will turn lower.\r\n\r\n<u>4.8.3: PART-TIME TRADER LIMIT ORDER TRADES: </u>\r\n\r\nPART001 – EUR/USD:\r\nThis trade is still in play given that up until last Friday morning, I though that I had a 50-50 chance of it triggering. I will leave for now.\r\n\r\nPART022 – AUD/NZD:\r\nI desperately want this trade to trigger. I see this as one of the trades of 2016 if all the ducks line up ready!\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>4.9: CHARTS THAT ARE INTERESTING TO ME, THAT COULD BECOME A TRADE SET-UP IN THE NEAR FUTURE:\r\n</strong>\r\n\r\nMy comments (if any) are included on the charts. There are quite a few this week, I have including my revised JPY target entry levels.\r\n\r\nDo not expect a bucketful of trades Sunday evening. It is a very busy economic data release this week.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/chfjpy-daily-30012016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7236\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7236\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/CHFJPY-DAILY-30012016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"CHFJPY DAILY 30012016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/nzdjpy-d-30012016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7233\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7233\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/NZDJPY-D-30012016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"NZDJPY D 30012016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/nzdchf-weekly-30012016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7232\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7232\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/NZDCHF-WEEKLY-30012016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"NZDCHF WEEKLY 30012016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/nzdcad-daily-30012016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7231\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7231\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/NZDCAD-DAILY-30012016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"NZDCAD DAILY 30012016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/gbpjpy-d-30012016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7230\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7230\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/GBPJPY-D-30012016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"GBPJPY D 30012016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/eurjpy-d-30012016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7229\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7229\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/EURJPY-D-30012016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"EURJPY D 30012016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/eurgbp-d-30012016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7228\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7228\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/EURGBP-D-30012016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"EURGBP D 30012016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/cadjpy-d-30012016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7226\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7226\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/CADJPY-D-30012016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"CADJPY D 30012016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/cadchf-weekly-30012016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7225\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7225\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/CADCHF-WEEKLY-30012016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"CADCHF WEEKLY 30012016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/audjpy-d-30012016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7224\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7224\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/AUDJPY-D-30012016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"AUDJPY D 30012016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n	<li><strong> TIME OUT – “AT THE END OF THE DAY”:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThis is a big week for economic data on the back of the FED, RBNZ and BOJ. We have the BOE and RBA this week as well NFP and a cluster of PMi reports and Trade balance numbers, plus a few other employment reports away from the U.S.\r\n\r\nI expect increasing volatility, especially after the BOJ policy shift. Do not be surprised to see and hear several ECB related quotes this week as the reaction to the BOJ change filters across.\r\n\r\nIt will be an interesting week, but also one that we must be careful with. The divergent trade is still in place. I do not see Janet Yellen reversing course. This is not how a central bank operates. It would however, not surprise me to see some commentary being unofficially released vis-à-vis the “Currency Wars” discussions / debates that will flood the news channels and Sunday morning financial programs on TV.\r\n\r\nAs traders we really have to be careful trading. Lower position sizes and don’t trade for the sake of trading. We really need to let the trades come to us, rather than chase. Believe me, I know that it is very tempting to chase these currencies at the moment.\r\n\r\nThere is only one solution in my opinion, trade lean and remain keen – that means trade with smaller positions with wider stops and be alert to moves.\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nTake care,\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','THERE ARE NO CURRENCY WARS UNTIL A CENTRAL BANK SAYS SO… YEAH RIGHT!','','inherit','closed','closed','','7252-revision-v1','','','2016-01-30 10:25:36','2016-01-30 15:25:36','',7252,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/7252-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(7255,1,'2016-01-30 10:44:57','2016-01-30 15:44:57','<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li><strong> INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThe first monthly draw winner to receive a PREMIUM SERVICE (SILVER) subscription was: ericxxxxx@hotmail.com\r\n\r\nAn email was sent yesterday to advise “Eric” and his access to the PREMIUM SERVICE is now complete and ready to receive trade set-ups for the next 4 weeks free of charge, congratulations Eric.\r\n\r\nTo be a winner of a free subscription; if you subscribe to receive this blog via my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> to receive all publications, you are automatically entered into a free monthly draw. Each month during 2016 one lucky subscriber will receive a free subscription to the PREMIUM SERVICE (SILVER). It costs nothing to subscribe via my website and it could be you that wins!!\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>2.1: WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber, fee based trade set-up option for Forex traders regardless of experience or background. I provide traders suggested trades, and some market commentary related to open trades or factors within the overall market that have my interest.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and the various trade styles plus how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nAdditional information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE you will require a PayPal account.\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u>2.2: PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE THIS MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>NET PIPS THIS MONTH SO FAR: +1,399</strong>\r\n<strong> NET PIPS THIS YEAR SO FAR: +1,399</strong></p>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/combined-trades-profit/prem-serv-profits1-30012016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7198\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7198\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/PREM-SERV-PROFITS1-30012016.png\" alt=\"PREM SERV PROFITS1 30012016\" width=\"551\" height=\"530\" /></a>\r\n\r\nIf you want more data or detail about the performance and my website does not answer your questions, contact me directly and I will supply the trading data you require. There are NO secrets. There are many, many spreadsheets detailing performance trade by trade and by trade style, way too many to place in this blog. If you are interested in the PREMIUM SERVICE and want more information, all you have to do is ask.\r\n\r\n<u>2.3: PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBER PROMOTION:</u>\r\n\r\nPlease note that until the end of February 2016, I have in place a very special subscription offer. This can be checked out on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by clicking on the FX PROMOTIONS tab at the top of the page.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>3.1: LAST WEEK’S NEWS – MY THOUGHTS:</strong><u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u>3.1.1: THE FOMC RATE &amp; POLICY STATEMENT: </u>\r\n\r\nIt seems such a long time ago since last Wednesday; that\'s either a sign of age, tiredness or a couple of nights on the booze celebrating my wife’s birthday.\r\n\r\nAs expected Janet Yellen left interest rates unchanged. This was very widely expected; the focus was on the written content of the statement for future clues as to when the FOMC would next raise rates.\r\n\r\nI am finding a lot of this statement scrutiny a little boring, but essentially the committee now states that they are “Closely monitoring global economic and financial developments” and for me the biggest line was the fact that they no longer view the US economy as “Expanding at moderate pace” but replaced this with “Growth slowed late last year”. In addition the FOMC is no longer “Reasonably confident” that inflation will hit 2%...I think that maybe the oil effect is starting to hit home and resonate with them.\r\n\r\nThank God for this, I was getting sick of hearing the word transitory when it came to the effects on inflation by oil. Transitory my arse; more like permanent!\r\n\r\nNow the books are open on whether or not the FED will hike again in March 2016. It’s data dependent we all know that and dot dependent we all know that as well.\r\n\r\nI feel really sorry for the FOMC following the Bernanke approach of making the FED transparent. Transparency is fine in a market that requires continual support, but when things are improving I believe that transparency is a hindrance. Historical economic opinions (e.g. “the dots”) by the FOMC are being used to hold them almost to ransom on future decisions and expectancy.\r\n\r\nAnalysts on Wall Street change opinions with the same frequency as the wind direction, yet the FOMC are pushing themselves into a corner. They have it out there that there should be between 4 and 6 rate hikes in 2016, with many more planned in 2017.\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, this type of communication should just be verbal, if at all, by Janet Yellen at press conferences.\r\n\r\nI am not saying lets get back to the good old days of Alan Greenspan and Jean-Claude Trichet, when we all needed a codebook to understand what was being said, but maybe a middle ground would benefit not just the FOMC but the markets as well.\r\n\r\nI think I may need to lie down, I cannot believe I was offering consideration to a central bank.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3.1.2: THE RBNZ RATE &amp; POLICY STATEMENT:</u>\r\n\r\nRates left unchanged and like every central bank the RBNZ are worried about reaching their inflation target.\r\n\r\nThis hints at more accommodation to support the NZD this year. The Kiwi fell on the data release but like Lazarus it rose from the dead and erased the losses with the NZD/USD within 24 hours.\r\n\r\n<u>3.1.3: OIL:</u>\r\n\r\nOil squeezed above $30 and stopped around $35 in a rather frantic hour when it came all the way back down again, then bounced up to around $33 where it looks to be hovering prior to deciding what the next move will be.\r\n\r\nI don\'t know about the symbol WTi it’s more like WTF. Whoever, trades this commodity and makes money I congratulate you. It’s not my cup of tea at all.\r\n\r\nThe movement in the oil price played and continually plays havoc in particular with the USD/CAD and its crosses. 150+ pips moves a day in the USD/CAD are now fairly frequent.\r\n\r\nOil is still pushing and pulling the markets around; it’s “The Big Kahuna”.\r\n\r\nThere are rumours, denials and more rumours about an oil production cut. Yup, I can see that happening… NOT. Well maybe a token, but not enough to bring the supply and demand relationship in line and frankly oil production would have to cease 100% for a few months to rectify the imbalance. Is there that commitment in the dog eat dog environment of oil producers?\r\n\r\nI think that there is more chance of Megyn Kelly voting for Donald Trump, in fact there is more chance of Megyn Kelly having Donald Trump’s babies.\r\n\r\n<u>3.1.4: BOJ OUTLOOK REPORT &amp; PRESS CONFERENCE:</u>\r\n\r\nI am covering this later in the blog.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>3.2: THIS WEEK’S NEWS:</strong>\r\n\r\n<u>3.2.1: THIS WEEK’S FOREX NEWS THAT INTERESTS ME:</u>\r\n\r\n(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market other than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to <a href=\"http://www.forexfactory.com\">www.forexfactory.com</a> and <a href=\"http://www.tradingeconomics.com\">www.tradingeconomics.com</a> for a more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).\r\n\r\nSUNDAY: CNY – Manufacturing PMi.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: GBP – Manufacturing PMi.\r\nMONDAY: USD – Manufacturing PMi.\r\nMONDAY: AUD – RBA Rate Statement.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: GBP – Construction PMI.\r\nTUESDAY: NZD - Dairy Prices &amp; Employment Data.\r\nTUESDAY: AUD – Trade Balance.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: GBP – Services PMi.\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – ADP NON-FARM Employment Data.\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMi.\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – Crude Oil Inventories.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: GBP – BOE Inflation Report, Bank Rate and Policy Summary.\r\nTHURSDAY: GBP – BOE Mark Carney speaks…\r\nTHURSDAY: AUD – RBA monetary Policy Statement and Retail Sales\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: CAD – Trade Balance and Employment Data.\r\nFRIDAY: USD – Trade balance and Non-Farm Employment Data.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3.2.2: THE USD MAJORS SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS: </u>\r\n\r\n(In this section I have as usual kept my charts as minimalist as possible. With regards to charting in my opinion less is more!! I hope that they are clear. All readers regardless of level of experience should be able to follow my thoughts from my comments to the levels on the charts with ease).\r\n\r\nThis week all my comments are contained on the charts.\r\n\r\nEUR/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.0828\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/there-are-no-currency-wars-until-a-central-bank-says-so-yeah-right/eurusd-d-30012016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7218\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7218\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/EURUSD-D-30012016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"EURUSD D 30012016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.4241\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/there-are-no-currency-wars-until-a-central-bank-says-so-yeah-right/gbpusd-d-30012016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7219\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7219\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/GBPUSD-D-30012016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"GBPUSD D 30012016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.7081\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/there-are-no-currency-wars-until-a-central-bank-says-so-yeah-right/audusd-d-30012016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7216\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7216\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/AUDUSD-D-30012016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"AUDUSD D 30012016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.6479\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/there-are-no-currency-wars-until-a-central-bank-says-so-yeah-right/nzdusd-d-30012016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7220\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7220\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/NZDUSD-D-30012016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"NZDUSD D 30012016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.3968\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/there-are-no-currency-wars-until-a-central-bank-says-so-yeah-right/usdcad-d-30012016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7221\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7221\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/USDCAD-D-30012016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"USDCAD D 30012016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF - Weekly Closing Price: 1.0227\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/there-are-no-currency-wars-until-a-central-bank-says-so-yeah-right/usdchf-d-30012016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7222\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7222\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/USDCHF-D-30012016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"USDCHF D 30012016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY - Weekly Closing Price: 121.11\r\n\r\n<strong><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/there-are-no-currency-wars-until-a-central-bank-says-so-yeah-right/usdjpy-d-30012016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7223\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7223\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/USDJPY-D-30012016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"USDJPY D 30012016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>3.3: WHAT’S ON MY MIND:</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>THERE ARE NO CURRENCY WARS UNTIL A CENTRAL BANK SAYS SO… YEAH RIGHT!</strong></p>\r\nYet another sarcastic title for my featured article; originally from Liverpool sarcasm comes naturally to me and of course heaps of cynicism for good measure.\r\n\r\nSince the start of this year I have three blog articles ready to go in my mind:\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>GREECE and the contagion revisited</li>\r\n	<li>CENTRAL BANK policies are polarizing</li>\r\n	<li>MAJOR BANKS and INSTITUTIONS FX targets 2016</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThis year so far, and we are not out of January yet has been so volatile and confusing at times to make sense of moves, it’s starting to make Thomas Jordan the SNB Chairman’s day in the history books last year look almost like a non-event. Well maybe not a non-event but the move by the SNB was a game changer event that has kept the central bank easing moves at the top of the agenda each month since last January.\r\n\r\nOnly the GREEK bailout tragedy / saga has had more time devoted to it. By the way before the end of 2016 there will be another bailout… ACT IV is on the way.\r\n\r\nMoving on and rather annoyingly as I was not at my desk…\r\n\r\nThursday evening / Friday morning (EST) up steps BOJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda for his press conference and completely surprised the markets with NIRP (Negative Interest Rate Policy).\r\n\r\nIn a copy cat move already made by the SNB, Riksbank (Sweden) and Denmark National Bank he announced NIRP to the token level of 0.1% for banks and other financial institutions holding YEN on deposit. This move he hopes will force lending, purchasing, manufacturing, increased sales and then inflation.\r\n\r\nQuoting our good friend Mario Draghi (ECB)… Kuroda stated he would do “whatever it takes to reflate the economy and achieve the 2% inflation goal” and for good measure re extended once again (3<sup>rd</sup> time in 12 months) the target to achieve this 2% goal; it’s now mid 2017.\r\n\r\nTaking a page from the SNB book of spin, on 21<sup>st</sup> January 2016 in Davos, he said that there was no way that he would be looking at negative interest rates.\r\n\r\nSo copying Draghi’s words and using denials of change similar to the way the SNB played the markets ahead of the EUR/CHF peg removal, did Kuroda say or do anything original?\r\n\r\nBasically, lets not get carried away here. Yes, there was a massive move in the Nikkei equities and the FX JPY pairs understandably so, but after the initial gasp of breath the equity markets rallied, gave back and moved up a little again but basically settled down. Only FX really remained elevated; in my words, elevated = selling opportunities.\r\n\r\n0.1% is not a huge NIRP considering the SNB is at 0.75%.\r\n\r\nI think what we have to look at here are the future intentions of the BOJ. It is only a matter of time before most central banks will have a NIRP… in my opinion.\r\n\r\nWith Kuroda’s book of spin open on page one, chapter one titled: -\r\n\r\n<strong>HOW TO TALK BOLLOCKS</strong>\r\n\r\nHe passed with flying colours in Davos, the world was snowy and a wee bit chilly but back in Japan all was well, the economy was moving forward moderately in line with all the expectations and negative interest rates were not being considered as an option.\r\n\r\nNow on page two, chapter two: -\r\n\r\n<strong>HOW TO INCREASE THE INTENSITY IN THE CURRENCY WARS WITHOUT SAYING IT\'S A CURRENCY WAR</strong>\r\n\r\nHats off once again, nothing to do with currency devaluation it was all to do with inflation. Such a step-over would make Cristiano Ronaldo and Gerald Deulofeu proud.\r\n\r\nWhat surprises me is that the BOJ has been fighting, dare I say it, DEFLATION since the early 1990’s. These Central Bankers are so good it’s only taken some 25 years to find a new policy weapon that may help.\r\n\r\nOil, China slowdown, emerging markets were also highlighted as reasons for this bold NIRP approach.\r\n\r\nThere is no doubt in my mind that despite central bank pleas to the contrary the actions by the BOJ should increase the currency wars with central banks around the world as they each try to outdo one another by achieving a sustained competitive devaluation to set against the backdrop of slowing world trade and failing commodity prices. The jury is out on whether NIRP will eventually help create inflation, but it has sent a clear message to the markets about the intentions of the BOJ.\r\n\r\nSo what now for the FED?\r\n\r\nMore importantly what does Mario Draghi do now at the ECB by way of response?\r\n\r\nWe shall wait and see. There is quite sometime now until the next ECB press conference and interest rate announcement, which is in early, March. Would you not just love to be a fly on the wall in Draghi’s office? Can you imagine the conversations that have and will be taking place between Frankfurt and Berlin about what to do in response?\r\n\r\nIf Draghi responds aggressively, I think that it’s fair to say GAME ON.\r\n\r\nFrom a trading perspective, subscribers to the PREMIUM SERVICE will know that for about the last week or so I had been lining up short trades of the JPY pairs at higher levels. I still intend to do this and my updated charts are contained later in the blog in the PREMIUM SERVICE subscriber section.\r\n\r\nOn a general note, I do consider the moves upwards all fadeable. I rather foolishly left a limit order USD/JPY short open in one of my accounts and I was away for the BOJ release. I took a hit on this trade without even seeing it open and stop me out…argh!!\r\n\r\nThe USD/JPY was the only JPY pair that was in my short “sell zone” area. This coming week I will be looking to establish short trades in most JPY pairs if my price levels are reached.\r\n\r\nWe should remember that there will be the usual pushing and pulling in price action after a central bank policy shift so it makes sense to wait and not rush in until matters have calmed a little.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) EXCLUSIVE CONTENT:\r\n</strong>(This area contains exclusive content for PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) subscribers)</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n	<li><strong> TIME OUT – “AT THE END OF THE DAY”:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThis is a big week for economic data on the back of the FED, RBNZ and BOJ. We have the BOE and RBA this week as well NFP and a cluster of PMi reports and Trade balance numbers, plus a few other employment reports away from the U.S.\r\n\r\nI expect increasing volatility, especially after the BOJ policy shift. Do not be surprised to see and hear several ECB related quotes this week as the reaction to the BOJ change filters across.\r\n\r\nIt will be an interesting week, but also one that we must be careful with. The divergent trade is still in place. I do not see Janet Yellen reversing course. This is not how a central bank operates. It would however, not surprise me to see some commentary being unofficially released vis-à-vis the “Currency Wars” discussions / debates that will flood the news channels and Sunday morning financial programs on TV.\r\n\r\nAs traders we really have to be careful trading. Lower position sizes and don’t trade for the sake of trading. We really need to let the trades come to us, rather than chase. Believe me, I know that it is very tempting to chase these currencies at the moment.\r\n\r\nThere is only one solution in my opinion, trade lean and remain keen – that means trade with smaller positions with wider stops and be alert to moves.\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nTake care,\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\r\n</a>DATE: 30th January 2016\r\nBLOG REFERENCE: FREE NEWSLETTER #186\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','THERE ARE NO CURRENCY WARS UNTIL A CENTRAL BANK SAYS SO… YEAH RIGHT!','','publish','open','closed','','there-are-no-currency-wars-until-a-central-bank-says-so-yeah-right','','','2016-01-30 10:44:57','2016-01-30 15:44:57','',0,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?p=7255',0,'post','',0),(7256,1,'2016-01-30 10:43:05','2016-01-30 15:43:05','<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li><strong> INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThe first monthly draw winner to receive a PREMIUM SERVICE (SILVER) subscription was: ericxxxxx@hotmail.com\r\n\r\nAn email was sent yesterday to advise “Eric” and his access to the PREMIUM SERVICE is now complete and ready to receive trade set-ups for the next 4 weeks free of charge, congratulations Eric.\r\n\r\nTo be a winner of a free subscription; if you subscribe to receive this blog via my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> to receive all publications, you are automatically entered into a free monthly draw. Each month during 2016 one lucky subscriber will receive a free subscription to the PREMIUM SERVICE (SILVER). It costs nothing to subscribe via my website and it could be you that wins!!\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>2.1: WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber, fee based trade set-up option for Forex traders regardless of experience or background. I provide traders suggested trades, and some market commentary related to open trades or factors within the overall market that have my interest.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and the various trade styles plus how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nAdditional information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE you will require a PayPal account.\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u>2.2: PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE THIS MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\nNET PIPS THIS MONTH SO FAR: +1,399\r\nNET PIPS THIS YEAR SO FAR: +1,399\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/combined-trades-profit/prem-serv-profits1-30012016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7198\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7198\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/PREM-SERV-PROFITS1-30012016.png\" alt=\"PREM SERV PROFITS1 30012016\" width=\"551\" height=\"530\" /></a>\r\n\r\nIf you want more data or detail about the performance and my website does not answer your questions, contact me directly and I will supply the trading data you require. There are NO secrets. There are many, many spreadsheets detailing performance trade by trade and by trade style, way too many to place in this blog. If you are interested in the PREMIUM SERVICE and want more information, all you have to do is ask.\r\n\r\n<u>2.3: PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBER PROMOTION:</u>\r\n\r\nPlease note that until the end of February 2016, I have in place a very special subscription offer. This can be checked out on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by clicking on the FX PROMOTIONS tab at the top of the page.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>3.1: LAST WEEK’S NEWS – MY THOUGHTS:</strong><u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u>3.1.1: THE FOMC RATE &amp; POLICY STATEMENT: </u>\r\n\r\nIt seems such a long time ago since last Wednesday; that\'s either a sign of age, tiredness or a couple of nights on the booze celebrating my wife’s birthday.\r\n\r\nAs expected Janet Yellen left interest rates unchanged. This was very widely expected; the focus was on the written content of the statement for future clues as to when the FOMC would next raise rates.\r\n\r\nI am finding a lot of this statement scrutiny a little boring, but essentially the committee now states that they are “Closely monitoring global economic and financial developments” and for me the biggest line was the fact that they no longer view the US economy as “Expanding at moderate pace” but replaced this with “Growth slowed late last year”. In addition the FOMC is no longer “Reasonably confident” that inflation will hit 2%...I think that maybe the oil effect is starting to hit home and resonate with them.\r\n\r\nThank God for this, I was getting sick of hearing the word transitory when it came to the effects on inflation by oil. Transitory my arse; more like permanent!\r\n\r\nNow the books are open on whether or not the FED will hike again in March 2016. It’s data dependent we all know that and dot dependent we all know that as well.\r\n\r\nI feel really sorry for the FOMC following the Bernanke approach of making the FED transparent. Transparency is fine in a market that requires continual support, but when things are improving I believe that transparency is a hindrance. Historical economic opinions (e.g. “the dots”) by the FOMC are being used to hold them almost to ransom on future decisions and expectancy.\r\n\r\nAnalysts on Wall Street change opinions with the same frequency as the wind direction, yet the FOMC are pushing themselves into a corner. They have it out there that there should be between 4 and 6 rate hikes in 2016, with many more planned in 2017.\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, this type of communication should just be verbal, if at all, by Janet Yellen at press conferences.\r\n\r\nI am not saying lets get back to the good old days of Alan Greenspan and Jean-Claude Trichet, when we all needed a codebook to understand what was being said, but maybe a middle ground would benefit not just the FOMC but the markets as well.\r\n\r\nI think I may need to lie down, I cannot believe I was offering consideration to a central bank.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3.1.2: THE RBNZ RATE &amp; POLICY STATEMENT:</u>\r\n\r\nRates left unchanged and like every central bank the RBNZ are worried about reaching their inflation target.\r\n\r\nThis hints at more accommodation to support the NZD this year. The Kiwi fell on the data release but like Lazarus it rose from the dead and erased the losses with the NZD/USD within 24 hours.\r\n\r\n<u>3.1.3: OIL:</u>\r\n\r\nOil squeezed above $30 and stopped around $35 in a rather frantic hour when it came all the way back down again, then bounced up to around $33 where it looks to be hovering prior to deciding what the next move will be.\r\n\r\nI don\'t know about the symbol WTi it’s more like WTF. Whoever, trades this commodity and makes money I congratulate you. It’s not my cup of tea at all.\r\n\r\nThe movement in the oil price played and continually plays havoc in particular with the USD/CAD and its crosses. 150+ pips moves a day in the USD/CAD are now fairly frequent.\r\n\r\nOil is still pushing and pulling the markets around; it’s “The Big Kahuna”.\r\n\r\nThere are rumours, denials and more rumours about an oil production cut. Yup, I can see that happening… NOT. Well maybe a token, but not enough to bring the supply and demand relationship in line and frankly oil production would have to cease 100% for a few months to rectify the imbalance. Is there that commitment in the dog eat dog environment of oil producers?\r\n\r\nI think that there is more chance of Megyn Kelly voting for Donald Trump, in fact there is more chance of Megyn Kelly having Donald Trump’s babies.\r\n\r\n<u>3.1.4: BOJ OUTLOOK REPORT &amp; PRESS CONFERENCE:</u>\r\n\r\nI am covering this later in the blog.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>3.2: THIS WEEK’S NEWS:</strong>\r\n\r\n<u>3.2.1: THIS WEEK’S FOREX NEWS THAT INTERESTS ME:</u>\r\n\r\n(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market other than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to <a href=\"http://www.forexfactory.com\">www.forexfactory.com</a> and <a href=\"http://www.tradingeconomics.com\">www.tradingeconomics.com</a> for a more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).\r\n\r\nSUNDAY: CNY – Manufacturing PMi.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: GBP – Manufacturing PMi.\r\nMONDAY: USD – Manufacturing PMi.\r\nMONDAY: AUD – RBA Rate Statement.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: GBP – Construction PMI.\r\nTUESDAY: NZD - Dairy Prices &amp; Employment Data.\r\nTUESDAY: AUD – Trade Balance.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: GBP – Services PMi.\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – ADP NON-FARM Employment Data.\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMi.\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – Crude Oil Inventories.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: GBP – BOE Inflation Report, Bank Rate and Policy Summary.\r\nTHURSDAY: GBP – BOE Mark Carney speaks…\r\nTHURSDAY: AUD – RBA monetary Policy Statement and Retail Sales\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: CAD – Trade Balance and Employment Data.\r\nFRIDAY: USD – Trade balance and Non-Farm Employment Data.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3.2.2: THE USD MAJORS SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS: </u>\r\n\r\n(In this section I have as usual kept my charts as minimalist as possible. With regards to charting in my opinion less is more!! I hope that they are clear. All readers regardless of level of experience should be able to follow my thoughts from my comments to the levels on the charts with ease).\r\n\r\nThis week all my comments are contained on the charts.\r\n\r\nEUR/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.0828\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/there-are-no-currency-wars-until-a-central-bank-says-so-yeah-right/eurusd-d-30012016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7218\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7218\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/EURUSD-D-30012016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"EURUSD D 30012016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.4241\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/there-are-no-currency-wars-until-a-central-bank-says-so-yeah-right/gbpusd-d-30012016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7219\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7219\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/GBPUSD-D-30012016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"GBPUSD D 30012016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.7081\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/there-are-no-currency-wars-until-a-central-bank-says-so-yeah-right/audusd-d-30012016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7216\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7216\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/AUDUSD-D-30012016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"AUDUSD D 30012016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.6479\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/there-are-no-currency-wars-until-a-central-bank-says-so-yeah-right/nzdusd-d-30012016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7220\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7220\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/NZDUSD-D-30012016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"NZDUSD D 30012016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.3968\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/there-are-no-currency-wars-until-a-central-bank-says-so-yeah-right/usdcad-d-30012016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7221\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7221\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/USDCAD-D-30012016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"USDCAD D 30012016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF - Weekly Closing Price: 1.0227\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/there-are-no-currency-wars-until-a-central-bank-says-so-yeah-right/usdchf-d-30012016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7222\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7222\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/USDCHF-D-30012016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"USDCHF D 30012016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY - Weekly Closing Price: 121.11\r\n\r\n<strong><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/there-are-no-currency-wars-until-a-central-bank-says-so-yeah-right/usdjpy-d-30012016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7223\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7223\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/USDJPY-D-30012016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"USDJPY D 30012016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>3.3: WHAT’S ON MY MIND:</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>THERE ARE NO CURRENCY WARS UNTIL A CENTRAL BANK SAYS SO… YEAH RIGHT!</strong></p>\r\nYet another sarcastic title for my featured article; originally from Liverpool sarcasm comes naturally to me and of course heaps of cynicism for good measure.\r\n\r\nSince the start of this year I have three blog articles ready to go in my mind:\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>GREECE and the contagion revisited</li>\r\n	<li>CENTRAL BANK policies are polarizing</li>\r\n	<li>MAJOR BANKS and INSTITUTIONS FX targets 2016</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThis year so far, and we are not out of January yet has been so volatile and confusing at times to make sense of moves, it’s starting to make Thomas Jordan the SNB Chairman’s day in the history books last year look almost like a non-event. Well maybe not a non-event but the move by the SNB was a game changer event that has kept the central bank easing moves at the top of the agenda each month since last January.\r\n\r\nOnly the GREEK bailout tragedy / saga has had more time devoted to it. By the way before the end of 2016 there will be another bailout… ACT IV is on the way.\r\n\r\nMoving on and rather annoyingly as I was not at my desk…\r\n\r\nThursday evening / Friday morning (EST) up steps BOJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda for his press conference and completely surprised the markets with NIRP (Negative Interest Rate Policy).\r\n\r\nIn a copy cat move already made by the SNB, Riksbank (Sweden) and Denmark National Bank he announced NIRP to the token level of 0.1% for banks and other financial institutions holding YEN on deposit. This move he hopes will force lending, purchasing, manufacturing, increased sales and then inflation.\r\n\r\nQuoting our good friend Mario Draghi (ECB)… Kuroda stated he would do “whatever it takes to reflate the economy and achieve the 2% inflation goal” and for good measure re extended once again (3<sup>rd</sup> time in 12 months) the target to achieve this 2% goal; it’s now mid 2017.\r\n\r\nTaking a page from the SNB book of spin, on 21<sup>st</sup> January 2016 in Davos, he said that there was no way that he would be looking at negative interest rates.\r\n\r\nSo copying Draghi’s words and using denials of change similar to the way the SNB played the markets ahead of the EUR/CHF peg removal, did Kuroda say or do anything original?\r\n\r\nBasically, lets not get carried away here. Yes, there was a massive move in the Nikkei equities and the FX JPY pairs understandably so, but after the initial gasp of breath the equity markets rallied, gave back and moved up a little again but basically settled down. Only FX really remained elevated; in my words, elevated = selling opportunities.\r\n\r\n0.1% is not a huge NIRP considering the SNB is at 0.75%.\r\n\r\nI think what we have to look at here are the future intentions of the BOJ. It is only a matter of time before most central banks will have a NIRP… in my opinion.\r\n\r\nWith Kuroda’s book of spin open on page one, chapter one titled: -\r\n\r\n<strong>HOW TO TALK BOLLOCKS</strong>\r\n\r\nHe passed with flying colours in Davos, the world was snowy and a wee bit chilly but back in Japan all was well, the economy was moving forward moderately in line with all the expectations and negative interest rates were not being considered as an option.\r\n\r\nNow on page two, chapter two: -\r\n\r\n<strong>HOW TO INCREASE THE ITENSITY IN THE CURRENCY WARS WITHOUT SAYING IT\'S A CURRENCY WAR</strong>\r\n\r\nHats off once again, nothing to do with currency devaluation it was all to do with inflation. Such a step-over would make Cristiano Ronaldo and Gerald Deulofeu proud.\r\n\r\nWhat surprises me is that the BOJ has been fighting, dare I say it, DEFLATION since the early 1990’s. These Central Bankers are so good it’s only taken some 25 years to find a new policy weapon that may help.\r\n\r\nOil, China slowdown, emerging markets were also highlighted as reasons for this bold NIRP approach.\r\n\r\nThere is no doubt in my mind that despite central bank pleas to the contrary the actions by the BOJ should increase the currency wars with central banks around the world as they each try to outdo one another by achieving a sustained competitive devaluation to set against the backdrop of slowing world trade and failing commodity prices. The jury is out on whether NIRP will eventually help create inflation, but it has sent a clear message to the markets about the intentions of the BOJ.\r\n\r\nSo what now for the FED?\r\n\r\nMore importantly what does Mario Draghi do now at the ECB by way of response?\r\n\r\nWe shall wait and see. There is quite sometime now until the next ECB press conference and interest rate announcement, which is in early, March. Would you not just love to be a fly on the wall in Draghi’s office? Can you imagine the conversations that have and will be taking place between Frankfurt and Berlin about what to do in response?\r\n\r\nIf Draghi responds aggressively, I think that it’s fair to say GAME ON.\r\n\r\nFrom a trading perspective, subscribers to the PREMIUM SERVICE will know that for about the last week or so I had been lining up short trades of the JPY pairs at higher levels. I still intend to do this and my updated charts are contained later in the blog in the PREMIUM SERVICE subscriber section.\r\n\r\nOn a general note, I do consider the moves upwards all fadeable. I rather foolishly left a limit order USD/JPY short open in one of my accounts and I was away for the BOJ release. I took a hit on this trade without even seeing it open and stop me out…argh!!\r\n\r\nThe USD/JPY was the only JPY pair that was in my short “sell zone” area. This coming week I will be looking to establish short trades in most JPY pairs if my price levels are reached.\r\n\r\nWe should remember that there will be the usual pushing and pulling in price action after a central bank policy shift so it makes sense to wait and not rush in until matters have calmed a little.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) EXCLUSIVE CONTENT:\r\n</strong>(This area contains exclusive content for PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) subscribers)</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n	<li><strong> TIME OUT – “AT THE END OF THE DAY”:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThis is a big week for economic data on the back of the FED, RBNZ and BOJ. We have the BOE and RBA this week as well NFP and a cluster of PMi reports and Trade balance numbers, plus a few other employment reports away from the U.S.\r\n\r\nI expect increasing volatility, especially after the BOJ policy shift. Do not be surprised to see and hear several ECB related quotes this week as the reaction to the BOJ change filters across.\r\n\r\nIt will be an interesting week, but also one that we must be careful with. The divergent trade is still in place. I do not see Janet Yellen reversing course. This is not how a central bank operates. It would however, not surprise me to see some commentary being unofficially released vis-à-vis the “Currency Wars” discussions / debates that will flood the news channels and Sunday morning financial programs on TV.\r\n\r\nAs traders we really have to be careful trading. Lower position sizes and don’t trade for the sake of trading. We really need to let the trades come to us, rather than chase. Believe me, I know that it is very tempting to chase these currencies at the moment.\r\n\r\nThere is only one solution in my opinion, trade lean and remain keen – that means trade with smaller positions with wider stops and be alert to moves.\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nTake care,\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\r\n</a>DATE: 30th January 2016\r\nBLOG REFERENCE: FREE NEWSLETTER #186\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','THERE ARE NO CURRENCY WARS UNTIL A CENTRAL BANK SAYS SO… YEAH RIGHT!','','inherit','closed','closed','','7255-revision-v1','','','2016-01-30 10:43:05','2016-01-30 15:43:05','',7255,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/7255-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(7257,1,'2016-01-30 10:44:57','2016-01-30 15:44:57','<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li><strong> INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThe first monthly draw winner to receive a PREMIUM SERVICE (SILVER) subscription was: ericxxxxx@hotmail.com\r\n\r\nAn email was sent yesterday to advise “Eric” and his access to the PREMIUM SERVICE is now complete and ready to receive trade set-ups for the next 4 weeks free of charge, congratulations Eric.\r\n\r\nTo be a winner of a free subscription; if you subscribe to receive this blog via my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> to receive all publications, you are automatically entered into a free monthly draw. Each month during 2016 one lucky subscriber will receive a free subscription to the PREMIUM SERVICE (SILVER). It costs nothing to subscribe via my website and it could be you that wins!!\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>2.1: WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber, fee based trade set-up option for Forex traders regardless of experience or background. I provide traders suggested trades, and some market commentary related to open trades or factors within the overall market that have my interest.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and the various trade styles plus how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nAdditional information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE you will require a PayPal account.\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u>2.2: PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE THIS MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>NET PIPS THIS MONTH SO FAR: +1,399</strong>\r\n<strong> NET PIPS THIS YEAR SO FAR: +1,399</strong></p>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/combined-trades-profit/prem-serv-profits1-30012016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7198\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7198\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/PREM-SERV-PROFITS1-30012016.png\" alt=\"PREM SERV PROFITS1 30012016\" width=\"551\" height=\"530\" /></a>\r\n\r\nIf you want more data or detail about the performance and my website does not answer your questions, contact me directly and I will supply the trading data you require. There are NO secrets. There are many, many spreadsheets detailing performance trade by trade and by trade style, way too many to place in this blog. If you are interested in the PREMIUM SERVICE and want more information, all you have to do is ask.\r\n\r\n<u>2.3: PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBER PROMOTION:</u>\r\n\r\nPlease note that until the end of February 2016, I have in place a very special subscription offer. This can be checked out on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by clicking on the FX PROMOTIONS tab at the top of the page.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>3.1: LAST WEEK’S NEWS – MY THOUGHTS:</strong><u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u>3.1.1: THE FOMC RATE &amp; POLICY STATEMENT: </u>\r\n\r\nIt seems such a long time ago since last Wednesday; that\'s either a sign of age, tiredness or a couple of nights on the booze celebrating my wife’s birthday.\r\n\r\nAs expected Janet Yellen left interest rates unchanged. This was very widely expected; the focus was on the written content of the statement for future clues as to when the FOMC would next raise rates.\r\n\r\nI am finding a lot of this statement scrutiny a little boring, but essentially the committee now states that they are “Closely monitoring global economic and financial developments” and for me the biggest line was the fact that they no longer view the US economy as “Expanding at moderate pace” but replaced this with “Growth slowed late last year”. In addition the FOMC is no longer “Reasonably confident” that inflation will hit 2%...I think that maybe the oil effect is starting to hit home and resonate with them.\r\n\r\nThank God for this, I was getting sick of hearing the word transitory when it came to the effects on inflation by oil. Transitory my arse; more like permanent!\r\n\r\nNow the books are open on whether or not the FED will hike again in March 2016. It’s data dependent we all know that and dot dependent we all know that as well.\r\n\r\nI feel really sorry for the FOMC following the Bernanke approach of making the FED transparent. Transparency is fine in a market that requires continual support, but when things are improving I believe that transparency is a hindrance. Historical economic opinions (e.g. “the dots”) by the FOMC are being used to hold them almost to ransom on future decisions and expectancy.\r\n\r\nAnalysts on Wall Street change opinions with the same frequency as the wind direction, yet the FOMC are pushing themselves into a corner. They have it out there that there should be between 4 and 6 rate hikes in 2016, with many more planned in 2017.\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, this type of communication should just be verbal, if at all, by Janet Yellen at press conferences.\r\n\r\nI am not saying lets get back to the good old days of Alan Greenspan and Jean-Claude Trichet, when we all needed a codebook to understand what was being said, but maybe a middle ground would benefit not just the FOMC but the markets as well.\r\n\r\nI think I may need to lie down, I cannot believe I was offering consideration to a central bank.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3.1.2: THE RBNZ RATE &amp; POLICY STATEMENT:</u>\r\n\r\nRates left unchanged and like every central bank the RBNZ are worried about reaching their inflation target.\r\n\r\nThis hints at more accommodation to support the NZD this year. The Kiwi fell on the data release but like Lazarus it rose from the dead and erased the losses with the NZD/USD within 24 hours.\r\n\r\n<u>3.1.3: OIL:</u>\r\n\r\nOil squeezed above $30 and stopped around $35 in a rather frantic hour when it came all the way back down again, then bounced up to around $33 where it looks to be hovering prior to deciding what the next move will be.\r\n\r\nI don\'t know about the symbol WTi it’s more like WTF. Whoever, trades this commodity and makes money I congratulate you. It’s not my cup of tea at all.\r\n\r\nThe movement in the oil price played and continually plays havoc in particular with the USD/CAD and its crosses. 150+ pips moves a day in the USD/CAD are now fairly frequent.\r\n\r\nOil is still pushing and pulling the markets around; it’s “The Big Kahuna”.\r\n\r\nThere are rumours, denials and more rumours about an oil production cut. Yup, I can see that happening… NOT. Well maybe a token, but not enough to bring the supply and demand relationship in line and frankly oil production would have to cease 100% for a few months to rectify the imbalance. Is there that commitment in the dog eat dog environment of oil producers?\r\n\r\nI think that there is more chance of Megyn Kelly voting for Donald Trump, in fact there is more chance of Megyn Kelly having Donald Trump’s babies.\r\n\r\n<u>3.1.4: BOJ OUTLOOK REPORT &amp; PRESS CONFERENCE:</u>\r\n\r\nI am covering this later in the blog.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>3.2: THIS WEEK’S NEWS:</strong>\r\n\r\n<u>3.2.1: THIS WEEK’S FOREX NEWS THAT INTERESTS ME:</u>\r\n\r\n(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market other than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to <a href=\"http://www.forexfactory.com\">www.forexfactory.com</a> and <a href=\"http://www.tradingeconomics.com\">www.tradingeconomics.com</a> for a more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).\r\n\r\nSUNDAY: CNY – Manufacturing PMi.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: GBP – Manufacturing PMi.\r\nMONDAY: USD – Manufacturing PMi.\r\nMONDAY: AUD – RBA Rate Statement.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: GBP – Construction PMI.\r\nTUESDAY: NZD - Dairy Prices &amp; Employment Data.\r\nTUESDAY: AUD – Trade Balance.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: GBP – Services PMi.\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – ADP NON-FARM Employment Data.\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMi.\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – Crude Oil Inventories.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: GBP – BOE Inflation Report, Bank Rate and Policy Summary.\r\nTHURSDAY: GBP – BOE Mark Carney speaks…\r\nTHURSDAY: AUD – RBA monetary Policy Statement and Retail Sales\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: CAD – Trade Balance and Employment Data.\r\nFRIDAY: USD – Trade balance and Non-Farm Employment Data.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3.2.2: THE USD MAJORS SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS: </u>\r\n\r\n(In this section I have as usual kept my charts as minimalist as possible. With regards to charting in my opinion less is more!! I hope that they are clear. All readers regardless of level of experience should be able to follow my thoughts from my comments to the levels on the charts with ease).\r\n\r\nThis week all my comments are contained on the charts.\r\n\r\nEUR/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.0828\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/there-are-no-currency-wars-until-a-central-bank-says-so-yeah-right/eurusd-d-30012016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7218\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7218\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/EURUSD-D-30012016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"EURUSD D 30012016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.4241\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/there-are-no-currency-wars-until-a-central-bank-says-so-yeah-right/gbpusd-d-30012016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7219\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7219\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/GBPUSD-D-30012016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"GBPUSD D 30012016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.7081\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/there-are-no-currency-wars-until-a-central-bank-says-so-yeah-right/audusd-d-30012016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7216\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7216\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/AUDUSD-D-30012016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"AUDUSD D 30012016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.6479\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/there-are-no-currency-wars-until-a-central-bank-says-so-yeah-right/nzdusd-d-30012016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7220\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7220\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/NZDUSD-D-30012016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"NZDUSD D 30012016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.3968\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/there-are-no-currency-wars-until-a-central-bank-says-so-yeah-right/usdcad-d-30012016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7221\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7221\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/USDCAD-D-30012016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"USDCAD D 30012016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF - Weekly Closing Price: 1.0227\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/there-are-no-currency-wars-until-a-central-bank-says-so-yeah-right/usdchf-d-30012016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7222\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7222\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/USDCHF-D-30012016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"USDCHF D 30012016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY - Weekly Closing Price: 121.11\r\n\r\n<strong><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/there-are-no-currency-wars-until-a-central-bank-says-so-yeah-right/usdjpy-d-30012016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7223\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7223\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/USDJPY-D-30012016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"USDJPY D 30012016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>3.3: WHAT’S ON MY MIND:</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>THERE ARE NO CURRENCY WARS UNTIL A CENTRAL BANK SAYS SO… YEAH RIGHT!</strong></p>\r\nYet another sarcastic title for my featured article; originally from Liverpool sarcasm comes naturally to me and of course heaps of cynicism for good measure.\r\n\r\nSince the start of this year I have three blog articles ready to go in my mind:\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>GREECE and the contagion revisited</li>\r\n	<li>CENTRAL BANK policies are polarizing</li>\r\n	<li>MAJOR BANKS and INSTITUTIONS FX targets 2016</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThis year so far, and we are not out of January yet has been so volatile and confusing at times to make sense of moves, it’s starting to make Thomas Jordan the SNB Chairman’s day in the history books last year look almost like a non-event. Well maybe not a non-event but the move by the SNB was a game changer event that has kept the central bank easing moves at the top of the agenda each month since last January.\r\n\r\nOnly the GREEK bailout tragedy / saga has had more time devoted to it. By the way before the end of 2016 there will be another bailout… ACT IV is on the way.\r\n\r\nMoving on and rather annoyingly as I was not at my desk…\r\n\r\nThursday evening / Friday morning (EST) up steps BOJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda for his press conference and completely surprised the markets with NIRP (Negative Interest Rate Policy).\r\n\r\nIn a copy cat move already made by the SNB, Riksbank (Sweden) and Denmark National Bank he announced NIRP to the token level of 0.1% for banks and other financial institutions holding YEN on deposit. This move he hopes will force lending, purchasing, manufacturing, increased sales and then inflation.\r\n\r\nQuoting our good friend Mario Draghi (ECB)… Kuroda stated he would do “whatever it takes to reflate the economy and achieve the 2% inflation goal” and for good measure re extended once again (3<sup>rd</sup> time in 12 months) the target to achieve this 2% goal; it’s now mid 2017.\r\n\r\nTaking a page from the SNB book of spin, on 21<sup>st</sup> January 2016 in Davos, he said that there was no way that he would be looking at negative interest rates.\r\n\r\nSo copying Draghi’s words and using denials of change similar to the way the SNB played the markets ahead of the EUR/CHF peg removal, did Kuroda say or do anything original?\r\n\r\nBasically, lets not get carried away here. Yes, there was a massive move in the Nikkei equities and the FX JPY pairs understandably so, but after the initial gasp of breath the equity markets rallied, gave back and moved up a little again but basically settled down. Only FX really remained elevated; in my words, elevated = selling opportunities.\r\n\r\n0.1% is not a huge NIRP considering the SNB is at 0.75%.\r\n\r\nI think what we have to look at here are the future intentions of the BOJ. It is only a matter of time before most central banks will have a NIRP… in my opinion.\r\n\r\nWith Kuroda’s book of spin open on page one, chapter one titled: -\r\n\r\n<strong>HOW TO TALK BOLLOCKS</strong>\r\n\r\nHe passed with flying colours in Davos, the world was snowy and a wee bit chilly but back in Japan all was well, the economy was moving forward moderately in line with all the expectations and negative interest rates were not being considered as an option.\r\n\r\nNow on page two, chapter two: -\r\n\r\n<strong>HOW TO INCREASE THE INTENSITY IN THE CURRENCY WARS WITHOUT SAYING IT\'S A CURRENCY WAR</strong>\r\n\r\nHats off once again, nothing to do with currency devaluation it was all to do with inflation. Such a step-over would make Cristiano Ronaldo and Gerald Deulofeu proud.\r\n\r\nWhat surprises me is that the BOJ has been fighting, dare I say it, DEFLATION since the early 1990’s. These Central Bankers are so good it’s only taken some 25 years to find a new policy weapon that may help.\r\n\r\nOil, China slowdown, emerging markets were also highlighted as reasons for this bold NIRP approach.\r\n\r\nThere is no doubt in my mind that despite central bank pleas to the contrary the actions by the BOJ should increase the currency wars with central banks around the world as they each try to outdo one another by achieving a sustained competitive devaluation to set against the backdrop of slowing world trade and failing commodity prices. The jury is out on whether NIRP will eventually help create inflation, but it has sent a clear message to the markets about the intentions of the BOJ.\r\n\r\nSo what now for the FED?\r\n\r\nMore importantly what does Mario Draghi do now at the ECB by way of response?\r\n\r\nWe shall wait and see. There is quite sometime now until the next ECB press conference and interest rate announcement, which is in early, March. Would you not just love to be a fly on the wall in Draghi’s office? Can you imagine the conversations that have and will be taking place between Frankfurt and Berlin about what to do in response?\r\n\r\nIf Draghi responds aggressively, I think that it’s fair to say GAME ON.\r\n\r\nFrom a trading perspective, subscribers to the PREMIUM SERVICE will know that for about the last week or so I had been lining up short trades of the JPY pairs at higher levels. I still intend to do this and my updated charts are contained later in the blog in the PREMIUM SERVICE subscriber section.\r\n\r\nOn a general note, I do consider the moves upwards all fadeable. I rather foolishly left a limit order USD/JPY short open in one of my accounts and I was away for the BOJ release. I took a hit on this trade without even seeing it open and stop me out…argh!!\r\n\r\nThe USD/JPY was the only JPY pair that was in my short “sell zone” area. This coming week I will be looking to establish short trades in most JPY pairs if my price levels are reached.\r\n\r\nWe should remember that there will be the usual pushing and pulling in price action after a central bank policy shift so it makes sense to wait and not rush in until matters have calmed a little.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) EXCLUSIVE CONTENT:\r\n</strong>(This area contains exclusive content for PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) subscribers)</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n	<li><strong> TIME OUT – “AT THE END OF THE DAY”:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThis is a big week for economic data on the back of the FED, RBNZ and BOJ. We have the BOE and RBA this week as well NFP and a cluster of PMi reports and Trade balance numbers, plus a few other employment reports away from the U.S.\r\n\r\nI expect increasing volatility, especially after the BOJ policy shift. Do not be surprised to see and hear several ECB related quotes this week as the reaction to the BOJ change filters across.\r\n\r\nIt will be an interesting week, but also one that we must be careful with. The divergent trade is still in place. I do not see Janet Yellen reversing course. This is not how a central bank operates. It would however, not surprise me to see some commentary being unofficially released vis-à-vis the “Currency Wars” discussions / debates that will flood the news channels and Sunday morning financial programs on TV.\r\n\r\nAs traders we really have to be careful trading. Lower position sizes and don’t trade for the sake of trading. We really need to let the trades come to us, rather than chase. Believe me, I know that it is very tempting to chase these currencies at the moment.\r\n\r\nThere is only one solution in my opinion, trade lean and remain keen – that means trade with smaller positions with wider stops and be alert to moves.\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nTake care,\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\r\n</a>DATE: 30th January 2016\r\nBLOG REFERENCE: FREE NEWSLETTER #186\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','THERE ARE NO CURRENCY WARS UNTIL A CENTRAL BANK SAYS SO… YEAH RIGHT!','','inherit','closed','closed','','7255-revision-v1','','','2016-01-30 10:44:57','2016-01-30 15:44:57','',7255,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/7255-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(7259,1,'2016-02-05 16:42:02','2016-02-05 21:42:02','','PS PERF2 05022016','','inherit','open','closed','','ps-perf2-05022016','','','2016-02-05 16:48:30','2016-02-05 21:48:30','',5000,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/PS-PERF2-05022016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(7260,1,'2016-02-05 16:42:05','2016-02-05 21:42:05','','RADAR 05022016','','inherit','open','closed','','radar-05022016','','','2016-02-05 16:45:05','2016-02-05 21:45:05','',2524,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/RADAR-05022016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(7261,1,'2016-02-05 16:42:09','2016-02-05 21:42:09','','FLASH 05022016','','inherit','open','closed','','flash-05022016','','','2016-02-05 16:44:07','2016-02-05 21:44:07','',2711,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/FLASH-05022016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(7262,1,'2016-02-05 16:42:12','2016-02-05 21:42:12','','FUN 05022016','','inherit','open','closed','','fun-05022016','','','2016-02-05 16:46:03','2016-02-05 21:46:03','',3106,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/FUN-05022016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(7263,1,'2016-02-05 16:42:17','2016-02-05 21:42:17','','PARTTIME TRADER 05022016','','inherit','open','closed','','parttime-trader-05022016','','','2016-02-05 16:47:10','2016-02-05 21:47:10','',6965,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/PARTTIME-TRADER-05022016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(7270,1,'2016-02-05 17:15:27','2016-02-05 22:15:27','','AUDUSD D 06022016','','inherit','open','closed','','audusd-d-06022016','','','2016-02-06 12:37:34','2016-02-06 17:37:34','',7277,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/AUDUSD-D-06022016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(7271,1,'2016-02-05 17:15:30','2016-02-05 22:15:30','','EURUSD D 06022016','','inherit','open','closed','','eurusd-d-06022016','','','2016-02-06 12:37:03','2016-02-06 17:37:03','',7277,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/EURUSD-D-06022016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(7272,1,'2016-02-05 17:15:32','2016-02-05 22:15:32','','GBPUSD D 06022016','','inherit','open','closed','','gbpusd-d-06022016','','','2016-02-06 12:37:21','2016-02-06 17:37:21','',7277,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/GBPUSD-D-06022016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(7273,1,'2016-02-05 17:15:34','2016-02-05 22:15:34','','NZDUSD D 06022016','','inherit','open','closed','','nzdusd-d-06022016','','','2016-02-06 12:37:44','2016-02-06 17:37:44','',7277,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/NZDUSD-D-06022016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(7274,1,'2016-02-05 17:15:36','2016-02-05 22:15:36','','USDCAD D 06022016','','inherit','open','closed','','usdcad-d-06022016','','','2016-02-06 12:37:54','2016-02-06 17:37:54','',7277,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCAD-D-06022016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(7275,1,'2016-02-05 17:15:39','2016-02-05 22:15:39','','USDCHF D 06022016','','inherit','open','closed','','usdchf-d-06022016','','','2016-02-06 12:38:04','2016-02-06 17:38:04','',7277,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCHF-D-06022016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(7276,1,'2016-02-05 17:15:41','2016-02-05 22:15:41','','USDJPY D 06022016','','inherit','open','closed','','usdjpy-d-06022016','','','2016-02-06 12:38:15','2016-02-06 17:38:15','',7277,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDJPY-D-06022016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(7277,1,'2016-02-06 12:40:10','2016-02-06 17:40:10','<h3 style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU</strong></h3>\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li><strong> INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThe revisions in length and format of my blog are now complete and I will run with this for the next few weeks gauging feedback to tweak here and there if required.\r\n\r\nJust to remind you; to be the next winner of a free subscription; if you subscribe to receive this blog via my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> you are automatically entered into a free monthly draw. Each month during 2016 one lucky subscriber will receive a free subscription to the PREMIUM SERVICE (SILVER). It costs nothing to subscribe via my website and it could be you that wins. The next draw is at the end of this month.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>2.1: WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber, fee based trade set-up option for Forex traders regardless of experience or background. I provide traders suggested trades, and some market commentary related to open trades or factors within the overall market that have my interest.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and the various trade styles plus how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nAdditional information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE you will require a PayPal account.<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u>2.2: PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE THIS MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>NET PIPS THIS MONTH SO FAR: -261</strong>\r\n<strong>NET PIPS THIS YEAR SO FAR: +1,138</strong></p>\r\nIf you want more data or detail about the performance and my website does not answer your questions, contact me directly and I will supply the trading data you require. There are NO secrets. There are many, many spreadsheets detailing performance trade by trade and by trade style, way too many to place in this blog. If you are interested in the PREMIUM SERVICE and want more information, all you have to do is ask.\r\n\r\n<u>2.3: PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBER PROMOTION:</u>\r\n\r\nPlease note that until the end of February 2016, I have in place a very special subscription offer. This can be checked out on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by clicking on the FX PROMOTIONS tab at the top of the page.\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>3.1: LAST WEEK’S NEWS – MY THOUGHTS:</strong>\r\n\r\nFor me the fallout from the BOJ negative interest rate policy announcement, which starts next week, dominated the price action.\r\n\r\nAdd this to oil price volatility and Stanley Fischer (Vice-Chairman FED) comments about U.S. interest rate hikes and it gave us an eventful week. Basically, the USD was taken to the woodshed and given a handsome spanking.\r\n\r\nFrom what I could see on my twitter feed nobody appeared to lose any money, obviously everyone except myself knew what oil and Fischer was going to do and say. Happy days once again if you trade currencies, its just amazing day after day that nobody admits to having a poor run of trades or loss of cash.\r\n\r\nLast week, I banked a few pips and $$$, but I gave back more than I stashed away, very annoying and frustrating.\r\n\r\nThen last Friday we had U.S. NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls); the headline number was weaker than expected at 151,000. However, the unemployment rate was at 4.9%, the first time below 5% since February 2008. The average hourly earnings increased, as did the labour force participation rate. If earnings increase this is seen as an inflation indicator, even if it rises by one penny!\r\n\r\nIn my opinion what follows NFP is now no better than a gambling session at times. It is just a chop fest and it is fast becoming a mugs game after NFP.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>3.2: WHAT’S ON MY MIND:</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>NEVER WRITE OFF THE FED</strong></p>\r\nI am quite astonished this week reading through the selection of reports and opinions from institutions and analysts that cross my desk, plus the ones I seek out with regards to comments about the FED, its policies and implementations.\r\n\r\nI know that we live in an instant gratification world, however, the scrutiny of every word, comma placement and reference takes on a rather compulsive obsessive behavioral agenda, where it appears to me more than ever the FED are in a no win situation. They are damned if they do and damned if they don\'t!\r\n\r\nThere is so much scrutiny and commentary that any market move, weak economic data release that is contrary to prior content in a FED statement renders that particular FED statement invalid by the markets and analysts. I know that this is nothing really new but it is now treated as dead in the water.\r\n\r\nWhat do I mean?\r\n\r\nOver the past two weeks, we have heard from the BOJ, RBNZ, RBA, BOE and the FED.\r\n\r\nAs Forex traders central bank policy is probably the biggest influence on currency prices and we have to take note of policy updates, changes and the verbal comments made to try and obtain an edge in knowing what the various central bank governors are thinking. I think we all get that, however, the amount of commentary about the FED won’t do this and the Fed can’t do that commentary only about 30 days since changing the direction of the world’s largest economy is staggering.\r\n\r\nMost of this commentary I believe the FED can fix themselves and eradicate the uncertainty that this scrutiny brings upon the markets which ultimately manifests as FEAR and GREED (see later).\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, a lot of the problems sit at the door of the news frenzied media, which gives non-accountable bloody idiots airtime to discuss issues that are way beyond their pay grade. They tell us what the FED is thinking and doing almost on an hourly basis. This is ludicrous and quite frankly irresponsible by the media to encourage this propaganda that only fuels uncertainty and instability, which are core responsibilities of a central bank. Long gone are the days that news organizations reported on news, they are now pre-occupied with creating news.\r\n\r\nThe FED is probably the most powerful institution in the world. I have written in the past about how the media has elevated bank governors / presidents to “Rock Star” status.\r\n\r\nHowever, before moving forward, let’s “Take a step back” as Jim Kerr of Simple Minds would sing and look at “Where are we now”, as David Bowie sang, with regards to the central banks?\r\n\r\nECB: - Basically, we have heard from Mario Draghi, re-iterating that price stability and inflation are probably the two main drivers that influence his policies. The EUROZONE has real issues, economies running little better than DEFLATION and a collection of leaders and bankers who have yet to unite on anything. Mario Draghi has promised that he will use 100% of his mandate to deliver 2% inflation to the EUROZONE. He has recently extended QE (Quantitative Easing) and he has applied negative interest rates to ECB deposits in an attempt to force the banking sector to lend and stimulate growth in support of his macro policies.\r\n\r\nTo coin a phrase he is DOVISH.\r\n\r\nBOJ: - Not wanting to be outdone, we should also note that Japan through the BOJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda has also made very similar comments to Mario Draghi. “Whatever” and “as long as it takes” are his key giveaways with regards to the BOJ and the QQE (Quantitative and Qualitative Easing) program they have in situ. Like most central banks targets for inflation are pushed out to buy more time. The BOJ has been doing this since the mid 1990’s. The BOJ has been dealing with DEFLATION for decades and whilst numerous failed attempts have resulted in ritual suicides and God only knows what else, Kuroda has the dosh to throw at this problem. Whether he succeeds or not is another kettle of fish, so to speak, but he is saying and doing all the usual things. Just over a week ago he introduced negative interest rates for banks and large institutions. Whilst this is initially a very modest start at 0.10%, it shows future intent.\r\n\r\nTo coin a phrase he is DOVISH.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nBOE: - Very recently we heard “Farmer” Carney with his JCB announce that the UK growth forecasts for the next three years would be cut. Carney blamed the U.S. economy (If Donald Trump were President he would sue over that remark, he’s sued over less before) and obviously the price of oil. He now sees the UK inflation target of 2% being achieved in 2018.\r\n\r\nCarney still maintains that the next interest rate move by the BOE will be up. However, there is great uncertainty in the UK with the BREXIT “will they / wont they” media polls that sporadically appear. What we do know is the EUROZONE has enough of its own issues to deal with and hopes that the UK terms of inclusion would just go away. There is little chance of that and as a huge net contributor to the EUROZONE purse finally it looks like someone is trying to dare I say get some value for money. This must concern Carney and the BOE.\r\n\r\nCarney was HAWKISH… now I believe he is NEUTRAL to turning DOVISH if waves of uncertainty sweep across the UK.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nRBNZ: - Next we have Graeme Wheeler at the RBNZ. He is ready to act, or so he tells us, and the chances of rate increases in New Zealand this year are pretty much ruled out. Economic data flatters from time to time but the China slowdown effect (New Zealand’s largest trade partner) has not yet hit home. Added to China we have Dairy Prices, which have produced really poor auction results of late and these are bearish for the NZD and the economy moving forward.\r\n\r\nWheeler was NEUTRAL… now he wants to be accommodative but without being called a DOVE. From my perspective he is NEUTRAL turning DOVISH.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nRBA: - Glenn Stevens at the RBA is a master juggler. Sydney housing boom, commodity prices plunging and economic data mixed. How do you manage a way forward in that environment? He has left the door open for future accommodation if required. Low inflation is a concern but not enough at the moment to warrant easing.\r\n\r\nFor now he is NEUTRAL.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nSNB: - Then we have Thomas Jordan at the SNB. Negative interest rates already in play at 0.75% and finally the EUR/CHF is above 1.1000. Whilst we all applaud him for the negative interest rate tactic that is being copied the world over, I somehow believe that the EUR/CHF was being supported above 1.0750 by the SNB and probably very quietly some under the counter transactions have taken place to gently push it higher. The EUR/CHF seems unable to retrace like the other CHF pairs of late…interesting… call me cynical, it’s like water off a ducks back, I have been called much worse. Are they (SNB) playing the same games as the other central banks? Yes and no.\r\n\r\nWithout doubt though Jordan is accommodative and therefore he is DOVISH.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nBOC: - Stephen Poloz at the BOC, God love him. He has a new government, which will be looser on the purse strings than the previous, and he has oil prices to contend with. Although oil only accounts for around 10% of the contribution to Canada’s GDP the “loonie” is treated as a proxy for oil pricing. The Canadian economy is “up the Swannee” without a paddle and no matter how much spin is placed on the data, the straight facts are that oil is important to the Canadian economy for jobs and ancillary jobs and production etc so the prolonged price of WTi below $40.00 must be causing pain. To brush this fact off is total bulls**t.\r\n\r\nI think that if it was not for the fact that the first budget by Justin Trudeau is coming very soon the BOC would have cut rates. Instead, they hold the powder dry waiting to see if the political stimulus provided through the budget will have the desired effect on the Canadian economy. It is very risky. Bare in mind in the run up to the last BOC Rate Statement, both QE and negative interest rates, were discussed by BOC committee members. This one is not over yet.\r\n\r\nStephen Poloz and the BOC are allegedly NEUTRAL.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nFED: - Janet Yellen the FED chair, inherited from her predecessor Ben Bernanke a theater of transparency in which the markets would be advised ahead of every decision that the FED was about to make. Let me be fair; this was a great decision at the time, the world’s finances were in a mess, banks were under capitalized and there were very frequent stress tests to ensure that the banks ratios were in line with the FED’s objectives to prevent a further bank catastrophe.\r\n“Helicopter Ben” was out delivery bucket loads of cash like a modern day Santa dropping wedges of crisp notes all over New York and Chicago and a jolly time was had by all. “Do not worry” Ben will save you, Ben will do whatever to ensure price stability, the power of the FED is behind you.\r\n\r\nFor 6/7 years Wall Street was supported, there were no surprises no upsets. The U.S. was at rock bottom and the FED telegraphed it’s every move to ensure that there were no uncertainties and no surprises.\r\n\r\nPoor, Janet Yellen worked through this 100% support time with Bernanke, but now she has to move the FED into the next period, being normal again. It is challenging and it’s never been done before coming out of ultra supportive QE policies into normality once again.\r\n\r\nTo make it more difficult she has to contend with the feckin’ dots. Holy Mother of God, talk about Turkey’s voting for Christmas… get rid of the feckin’ dots they are a noose around your head… way too rigid and these dots, in my opinion, create nothing but problems to manage. (The dots are graph based opinion provided by FOMC voting members who commit to placing dots when they think the next rate increase or decrease should take place…amongst other things as well).\r\n\r\nAnalysts on Wall Street change their minds, as often as the wind changes direction and they are NOT accountable. They pop into the studios of CNBC and BLOOMBERG, spout a few comments to create news, they can be 360 degrees away from their last opinion which could have been only days previous and the anchors on TV are not bright enough to pick up on this, nor do they want to pick up on this if it sells advertising and rewards poor behavior by inviting them back time after time. They feed us sh*t and we act like farmer’s fields - we love sh*t… give us more. This creates uncertainty and only feeds a TV stations and analysts 15 minutes of fame by being as outspoken and at times as ridiculous as possible.\r\n\r\nThe current communication framework to the media is counter-productive to the FED. It’s too much information. The press conferences can deliver the written work, if required.\r\n\r\nLet me elaborate.\r\n\r\nBack to those dots, the FOMC members have the dots published and they are held accountable for weeks, if not months following. It may have been originally designed as showing insight and flexibility to market change by the FED but as far as the media is concerned the dots may as well have come down in tablets of stone off Mount Sinai delivered by Moses himself. They have to go.\r\n\r\nAs mentioned before, the FED has shifted / changed direction with policy. This is a huge event and should NOT be treated lightly.\r\n\r\nEconomic data will never be 100% positive all of the time. There will be lapses but the FED is like a 2-mile long oil tanker is takes miles to stop and many miles to turn around. There are far too many cries about no more rate hikes in 2016 the data is too bad. Based off what? One set of data… for God’s sake give me break. We are talking about the biggest economy in the world and a 0.25% rate increase was applied about 30 days ago. This year we should see a number of rate hikes to take the FED funds rate back to 1%. I think that the dot plotting showed 3 or 4 interest rate increases this year, however, because we have had some weak data they are apparently according to some parts of the media and analysts all off. We have just started month 2 of the year and it’s all off… FED policy needs to be re-written.\r\n\r\nLets get a damn grip.\r\n\r\nThe FED is going to raise rates this year. The calls for zero rate hikes even in the first six months are totally premature and are based off day-to-day reactions. The FED deals long term, very long term, it has to.\r\n\r\nIt would probably help the FED immensely if no pre-warning was given and no “dot excel sheets” were produced for distribution. The market creates it’s own uncertainty and it becomes the story of “The fish that got away” when all is said and done. The FED has its dots, it just a self-induced production for the markets to beat them over the head with.\r\n\r\nI know matters are not helped when individual FOMC members bask in their 15 minutes of glory from time to time like vice-chairman Stanley Fischer did last week. Comments made that make it look like there will be no rate increase in March based on the fact there are U.S. growth concerns on the first half of 2016, not only screw with my open trades, but on a more serious note undermine FED policy.\r\n\r\nHow times change. Am I now to believe that because the FED is raising rates the U.S. economy is now suddenly a load of sh**e, when only weeks ago U.S. commentators were doing the we’re great, the EUROZONE and the rest of the world is sh**e? Analysts and TV anchors cannot have it all ways they are not demi-Gods.\r\n\r\nWhilst it is a data dependent world that we live in, we have to be calm and measured about moving forward. The FED waited a year to hike rates to just 0.25% to start on a path of normality in the U.S. economy.\r\n\r\nTo simply write off FED interest rate activity for the first 6 months of 2016, is a dangerous thing to do, in my opinion.\r\n\r\nYou should never under-estimate a central bank and of all the central banks to under-estimate in my opinion only a fool would under-estimate the FED.\r\n\r\nUnder Janet Yellen’s leadership the Fed has been patient, deliberate, timely and probably too communicative for it’s own good. They have a plan, they talk with other central banks, they know what is coming up and the react, plan and schedule maybe at a snails pace, but that is the nature of the beast… it is what they do and how they do it. One month’s run of poor data will not derail the plan.\r\n\r\nThe naysayer’s were out in force ahead of NFP with doom and gloom and after the data release they crawled back under the rocks from where they came from.\r\n\r\nThe underlining economy in the U.S. is stronger and more resilient than most of us appreciate, the FED are experts at what they do.\r\n\r\nMost of the time the “Cry babies” as I call them, are investment managers who are unable to cope with a two-way market having spent most of the pasty 5/6 years operating with FED support in a one-sided marketplace.\r\n\r\nFinally the FED is HAWKISH.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) EXCLUSIVE CONTENT:\r\n</strong>(This area contains exclusive content for PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) subscribers)</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>4.1: THE PREMIUM SERVICE – TRADING REVIEW:\r\n</strong>(This section can cover a multitude of points / facts etc. Basically it’s a 360-degree review, which I think should interest subscribers):\r\n\r\nThe start of February was a step back from January’s performance. A net decrease in pips generated. I traded lighter than usual, but took a few hits on trades that I could have executed better. With my attempts to let trades run and gain more pips and $$$, I fell foul of snapbacks, sentiment changes and market uncertainty that just literally took trades away from me and my approach was to cover and take a loss.\r\n\r\nObviously, this week and next I need to recover my position and move forward.\r\n\r\nWe are currently at the whim of equities and oil, whilst I have stayed away from the USD/CAD and crosses in particular, the markets are hung up on oil and I see this together with the JPY reaction to Kuroda’s QQE and negative rates as the key drivers again this week.\r\n\r\nIn real terms the EUR/USD has played second, or even third fiddle to the USD/JPY and USD/CAD recently.\r\n\r\nAs you may have noticed I have gone back to cross rate pairs like the AUD/NZD and EUR/GBP as core trades moving forward. For the near future, I think maybe being away from too many USD is perhaps not a bad thing given the uncertainties.\r\n\r\nHowever, as always, the market is fluid and I will be ready to react but I think stepping aside at times is the best approach.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>4.2: TRADE STYLE DEFINITIONS:</strong>\r\n\r\n<u>4.2.1: RADAR TRADES:\r\n</u>These are pre-meditated entry trades set from either Fibonacci levels, pivot points or previous support and resistance based off a combination of horizontal or trend line support or resistance.\r\nThe goal is always if possible to swing trade these trades by establishing a position that if market conditions apply allow the trade to gather traction and develop into a longer-term position trade.\r\n\r\n<u>4.2.2: FLASH TRADES:\r\n</u>Mainly simply, opportunist trades in LIVE market conditions. These trades are either based off a pullback strategy, a GIMME10 strategy, or off momentum in a trading pair at the time of entry.\r\nThe goal is to either take 10-30 pips or see a sufficient move to place a protective stop in place to see if a swing trade develops.\r\nSome FLASH TRADES may form part of an overall trading plan with a given currency pair, but the entry could not be made via a LIMIT ORDER. In addition in 2016, some FLASH TRADES can be of a longer duration, with very specific goals.\r\n\r\n<u>4.2.3: FUNDAMENTAL TRADES:\r\n</u>These will be trades based off my TRADING PLAN goals for trades in line with my longer-term market views.\r\nTrades in this area will use in addition Fibonacci levels, Pivot points, trend lines and prior support and resistance levels, weekly and monthly ATR’s (Average True Ranges) when setting Stop Loss levels.\r\nThese trades are hopefully of a longer-term nature. They will be initially “single-lot” sized trades due to the wider stop placements that will be applied.\r\n\r\n<u>4.2.4: PART-TIME TRADER TRADES:\r\n</u>These trade set-ups are intended to have a longer-term trading perspective. They are not only targeted at traders who consider they are part-time Forex traders; obviously, all traders can of course take advantage. (My definition of a part-time trader is one who is only able to look at their computer screens, or, mobile devices to check trades two or three times a day).\r\n\r\nA key feature of these set-ups is that they have much wider than normal stops to allow for market swings and volatility. The trades therefore have a smaller position size to allow for the swings in volatility, but multiple trades in the same currency pair are added when the core trade has gained traction in the desired direction.\r\n\r\nMy goal is to have multiple trades open/live at any one time and maybe 2/3 open/live trades with the same currency pair. I will of course suggest to take some profits along the way, but hopefully at the same time letting trades run as far as possible.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>4.3: THE PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE SPREADSHEETS (INCLUDING LIVE &amp; LIMIT ORDER TRADES):</strong>\r\n\r\nFull and complete details surrounding these trades can be found inside the PREMIUM SERVICE on my website.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>4.4: REVIEW OF OPEN LIMIT ORDER TRADES NOT YET TRIGGERED:</strong><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.1: RADAR LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n</u>\r\nRT640 – AUD/CHF: This trade failed to trigger last Friday by fractions of pips. It is a really good entry level with good risk to reward values. If it does not trigger at the open this week I may manually trigger the trade.\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.2: FUNDAMENTAL LIMIT ORDER TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\nFUN256 – EUR/GBP: This trade is still valid as it is this pair’s resistance level, where I believe the pair will turn lower.\r\n\r\nFUN262 – GBP/NZD: This could be a great trade. The potential for pips is enormous. The cup and handle measured move could take years to play out and the move is 12,500 pips.\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.3: PART-TIME TRADER LIMIT ORDER TRADES: </u>\r\n\r\nPART032 – GBP/NZD: This could be a great trade. The potential for pips is enormous. The cup and handle measured move could take years to play out and the move is 12,500 pips.\r\n\r\nPART034 – AUD/CHF: This trade failed to trigger last Friday by fractions of pips. It is a really good entry level with good risk to reward values. If it does not trigger at the open this week I may manually trigger the trade.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n	<li><strong> COMING UP THIS WEEK:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5.1: THIS WEEK’S FOREX NEWS THAT INTERESTS ME:\r\n</u>(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market other than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to <a href=\"http://www.forexfactory.com\">www.forexfactory.com</a> and <a href=\"http://www.tradingeconomics.com\">www.tradingeconomics.com</a> for a more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).\r\n\r\nSUNDAY: CNY – Trade Balance.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – Janet Yellen – Testifies.\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – Crude Oil Inventories.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: USD – Core and Retail Sales.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>5.1: THE USD MAJORS SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS: </u>\r\n\r\n(In this section I have as usual kept my charts as minimalist as possible. With regards to charting in my opinion less is more!! I hope that they are clear. All readers regardless of level of experience should be able to follow my thoughts from my comments to the levels on the charts with ease)\r\n\r\nMy comments are contained on the charts.\r\n\r\nEUR/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.1156\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/eurusd-d-06022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7271\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7271\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/EURUSD-D-06022016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"EURUSD D 06022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.4499\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/gbpusd-d-06022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7272\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7272\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/GBPUSD-D-06022016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"GBPUSD D 06022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.7062\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/audusd-d-06022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7270\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7270\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/AUDUSD-D-06022016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"AUDUSD D 06022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.6621\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/nzdusd-d-06022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7273\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7273\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/NZDUSD-D-06022016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"NZDUSD D 06022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.3914\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/usdcad-d-06022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7274\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7274\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCAD-D-06022016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"USDCAD D 06022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF - Weekly Closing Price: 0.9904\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/usdchf-d-06022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7275\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7275\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCHF-D-06022016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"USDCHF D 06022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY - Weekly Closing Price: 116.81\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/usdjpy-d-06022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7276\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7276\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDJPY-D-06022016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"USDJPY D 06022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3: CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nThere is not a great deal of high beta economic data scheduled for release this week. I therefore believe that we will be held hostage to a large extent by the equity markets and oil.\r\n\r\nThe market is extremely fickle at the moment and I want to be sensible with my approach. Whilst I have several live trades and a few limit orders pending I will remain lower key for the short term.\r\n\r\nI always remember being told in my early days of trading some of your best trades will be the ones that you did not take. Never a truer set of words spoken. I will always have a daily objective and plan to execute, but now is the time to really let the trades come to you.\r\n\r\nThe response to NFP last Friday was rather muted and weird. In my opinion, the markets expected an overall failure, which they did not receive. The markets are strange at the best of times. Wall Street expects and believes that the FED will prop matters up at every twist and turn. Personally, I think that they have realized that they have met their match with Janet Yellen. Yellen is calm, mostly predictable and unruffled. Wall Street could learn a thing or two from Janet Yellen.\r\n\r\nWhilst Wall Street continues its adjustment to normalization, it looks like the central bank divergence trade will require a little more time to re-assert itself. During this period I will step back a little.\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nTake care,\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nDATE: 6<sup>th</sup> February 2016\r\nBLOG REFERENCE: PREMIUM SERVICE #88\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','NEVER WRITE OFF THE FED','','publish','open','closed','','never-write-off-the-fed','','','2016-02-06 12:40:10','2016-02-06 17:40:10','',0,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?post_type=member_posts&#038;p=7277',0,'member_posts','',0),(7278,1,'2016-02-06 12:38:42','2016-02-06 17:38:42','<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU</strong></p>\r\n\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li><strong> INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThe revisions in length and format of my blog are now complete and I will run with this for the next few weeks gauging feedback to tweak here and there if required.\r\n\r\nJust to remind you; to be the next winner of a free subscription; if you subscribe to receive this blog via my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> you are automatically entered into a free monthly draw. Each month during 2016 one lucky subscriber will receive a free subscription to the PREMIUM SERVICE (SILVER). It costs nothing to subscribe via my website and it could be you that wins. The next draw is at the end of this month.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>2.1: WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber, fee based trade set-up option for Forex traders regardless of experience or background. I provide traders suggested trades, and some market commentary related to open trades or factors within the overall market that have my interest.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and the various trade styles plus how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nAdditional information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE you will require a PayPal account.<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u>2.2: PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE THIS MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">\r\n<strong>NET PIPS THIS MONTH SO FAR: -261</strong>\r\n<strong>NET PIPS THIS YEAR SO FAR: +1,138</strong></p>\r\nIf you want more data or detail about the performance and my website does not answer your questions, contact me directly and I will supply the trading data you require. There are NO secrets. There are many, many spreadsheets detailing performance trade by trade and by trade style, way too many to place in this blog. If you are interested in the PREMIUM SERVICE and want more information, all you have to do is ask.\r\n\r\n<u>2.3: PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBER PROMOTION:</u>\r\n\r\nPlease note that until the end of February 2016, I have in place a very special subscription offer. This can be checked out on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by clicking on the FX PROMOTIONS tab at the top of the page.\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>3.1: LAST WEEK’S NEWS – MY THOUGHTS:</strong>\r\n\r\nFor me the fallout from the BOJ negative interest rate policy announcement, which starts next week, dominated the price action.\r\n\r\nAdd this to oil price volatility and Stanley Fischer (Vice-Chairman FED) comments about U.S. interest rate hikes and it gave us an eventful week. Basically, the USD was taken to the woodshed and given a handsome spanking.\r\n\r\nFrom what I could see on my twitter feed nobody appeared to lose any money, obviously everyone except myself knew what oil and Fischer was going to do and say. Happy days once again if you trade currencies, its just amazing day after day that nobody admits to having a poor run of trades or loss of cash.\r\n\r\nLast week, I banked a few pips and $$$, but I gave back more than I stashed away, very annoying and frustrating.\r\n\r\nThen last Friday we had U.S. NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls); the headline number was weaker than expected at 151,000. However, the unemployment rate was at 4.9%, the first time below 5% since February 2008. The average hourly earnings increased, as did the labour force participation rate. If earnings increase this is seen as an inflation indicator, even if it rises by one penny!\r\n\r\nIn my opinion what follows NFP is now no better than a gambling session at times. It is just a chop fest and it is fast becoming a mugs game after NFP.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>3.2: WHAT’S ON MY MIND:</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>NEVER WRITE OFF THE FED</strong></p>\r\nI am quite astonished this week reading through the selection of reports and opinions from institutions and analysts that cross my desk, plus the ones I seek out with regards to comments about the FED, its policies and implementations.\r\n\r\nI know that we live in an instant gratification world, however, the scrutiny of every word, comma placement and reference takes on a rather compulsive obsessive behavioral agenda, where it appears to me more than ever the FED are in a no win situation. They are damned if they do and damned if they don\'t!\r\n\r\nThere is so much scrutiny and commentary that any market move, weak economic data release that is contrary to prior content in a FED statement renders that particular FED statement invalid by the markets and analysts. I know that this is nothing really new but it is now treated as dead in the water.\r\n\r\nWhat do I mean?\r\n\r\nOver the past two weeks, we have heard from the BOJ, RBNZ, RBA, BOE and the FED.\r\n\r\nAs Forex traders central bank policy is probably the biggest influence on currency prices and we have to take note of policy updates, changes and the verbal comments made to try and obtain an edge in knowing what the various central bank governors are thinking. I think we all get that, however, the amount of commentary about the FED won’t do this and the Fed can’t do that commentary only about 30 days since changing the direction of the world’s largest economy is staggering.\r\n\r\nMost of this commentary I believe the FED can fix themselves and eradicate the uncertainty that this scrutiny brings upon the markets which ultimately manifests as FEAR and GREED (see later).\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, a lot of the problems sit at the door of the news frenzied media, which gives non-accountable bloody idiots airtime to discuss issues that are way beyond their pay grade. They tell us what the FED is thinking and doing almost on an hourly basis. This is ludicrous and quite frankly irresponsible by the media to encourage this propaganda that only fuels uncertainty and instability, which are core responsibilities of a central bank. Long gone are the days that news organizations reported on news, they are now pre-occupied with creating news.\r\n\r\nThe FED is probably the most powerful institution in the world. I have written in the past about how the media has elevated bank governors / presidents to “Rock Star” status.\r\n\r\nHowever, before moving forward, let’s “Take a step back” as Jim Kerr of Simple Minds would sing and look at “Where are we now”, as David Bowie sang, with regards to the central banks?\r\n\r\nECB: - Basically, we have heard from Mario Draghi, re-iterating that price stability and inflation are probably the two main drivers that influence his policies. The EUROZONE has real issues, economies running little better than DEFLATION and a collection of leaders and bankers who have yet to unite on anything. Mario Draghi has promised that he will use 100% of his mandate to deliver 2% inflation to the EUROZONE. He has recently extended QE (Quantitative Easing) and he has applied negative interest rates to ECB deposits in an attempt to force the banking sector to lend and stimulate growth in support of his macro policies.\r\n\r\nTo coin a phrase he is DOVISH.\r\n\r\nBOJ: - Not wanting to be outdone, we should also note that Japan through the BOJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda has also made very similar comments to Mario Draghi. “Whatever” and “as long as it takes” are his key giveaways with regards to the BOJ and the QQE (Quantitative and Qualitative Easing) program they have in situ. Like most central banks targets for inflation are pushed out to buy more time. The BOJ has been doing this since the mid 1990’s. The BOJ has been dealing with DEFLATION for decades and whilst numerous failed attempts have resulted in ritual suicides and God only knows what else, Kuroda has the dosh to throw at this problem. Whether he succeeds or not is another kettle of fish, so to speak, but he is saying and doing all the usual things. Just over a week ago he introduced negative interest rates for banks and large institutions. Whilst this is initially a very modest start at 0.10%, it shows future intent.\r\n\r\nTo coin a phrase he is DOVISH.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nBOE: - Very recently we heard “Farmer” Carney with his JCB announce that the UK growth forecasts for the next three years would be cut. Carney blamed the U.S. economy (If Donald Trump were President he would sue over that remark, he’s sued over less before) and obviously the price of oil. He now sees the UK inflation target of 2% being achieved in 2018.\r\n\r\nCarney still maintains that the next interest rate move by the BOE will be up. However, there is great uncertainty in the UK with the BREXIT “will they / wont they” media polls that sporadically appear. What we do know is the EUROZONE has enough of its own issues to deal with and hopes that the UK terms of inclusion would just go away. There is little chance of that and as a huge net contributor to the EUROZONE purse finally it looks like someone is trying to dare I say get some value for money. This must concern Carney and the BOE.\r\n\r\nCarney was HAWKISH… now I believe he is NEUTRAL to turning DOVISH if waves of uncertainty sweep across the UK.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nRBNZ: - Next we have Graeme Wheeler at the RBNZ. He is ready to act, or so he tells us, and the chances of rate increases in New Zealand this year are pretty much ruled out. Economic data flatters from time to time but the China slowdown effect (New Zealand’s largest trade partner) has not yet hit home. Added to China we have Dairy Prices, which have produced really poor auction results of late and these are bearish for the NZD and the economy moving forward.\r\n\r\nWheeler was NEUTRAL… now he wants to be accommodative but without being called a DOVE. From my perspective he is NEUTRAL turning DOVISH.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nRBA: - Glenn Stevens at the RBA is a master juggler. Sydney housing boom, commodity prices plunging and economic data mixed. How do you manage a way forward in that environment? He has left the door open for future accommodation if required. Low inflation is a concern but not enough at the moment to warrant easing.\r\n\r\nFor now he is NEUTRAL.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nSNB: - Then we have Thomas Jordan at the SNB. Negative interest rates already in play at 0.75% and finally the EUR/CHF is above 1.1000. Whilst we all applaud him for the negative interest rate tactic that is being copied the world over, I somehow believe that the EUR/CHF was being supported above 1.0750 by the SNB and probably very quietly some under the counter transactions have taken place to gently push it higher. The EUR/CHF seems unable to retrace like the other CHF pairs of late…interesting… call me cynical, it’s like water off a ducks back, I have been called much worse. Are they (SNB) playing the same games as the other central banks? Yes and no.\r\n\r\nWithout doubt though Jordan is accommodative and therefore he is DOVISH.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nBOC: - Stephen Poloz at the BOC, God love him. He has a new government, which will be looser on the purse strings than the previous, and he has oil prices to contend with. Although oil only accounts for around 10% of the contribution to Canada’s GDP the “loonie” is treated as a proxy for oil pricing. The Canadian economy is “up the Swannee” without a paddle and no matter how much spin is placed on the data, the straight facts are that oil is important to the Canadian economy for jobs and ancillary jobs and production etc so the prolonged price of WTi below $40.00 must be causing pain. To brush this fact off is total bulls**t.\r\n\r\nI think that if it was not for the fact that the first budget by Justin Trudeau is coming very soon the BOC would have cut rates. Instead, they hold the powder dry waiting to see if the political stimulus provided through the budget will have the desired effect on the Canadian economy. It is very risky. Bare in mind in the run up to the last BOC Rate Statement, both QE and negative interest rates, were discussed by BOC committee members. This one is not over yet.\r\n\r\nStephen Poloz and the BOC are allegedly NEUTRAL.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nFED: - Janet Yellen the FED chair, inherited from her predecessor Ben Bernanke a theater of transparency in which the markets would be advised ahead of every decision that the FED was about to make. Let me be fair; this was a great decision at the time, the world’s finances were in a mess, banks were under capitalized and there were very frequent stress tests to ensure that the banks ratios were in line with the FED’s objectives to prevent a further bank catastrophe.\r\n“Helicopter Ben” was out delivery bucket loads of cash like a modern day Santa dropping wedges of crisp notes all over New York and Chicago and a jolly time was had by all. “Do not worry” Ben will save you, Ben will do whatever to ensure price stability, the power of the FED is behind you.\r\n\r\nFor 6/7 years Wall Street was supported, there were no surprises no upsets. The U.S. was at rock bottom and the FED telegraphed it’s every move to ensure that there were no uncertainties and no surprises.\r\n\r\nPoor, Janet Yellen worked through this 100% support time with Bernanke, but now she has to move the FED into the next period, being normal again. It is challenging and it’s never been done before coming out of ultra supportive QE policies into normality once again.\r\n\r\nTo make it more difficult she has to contend with the feckin’ dots. Holy Mother of God, talk about Turkey’s voting for Christmas… get rid of the feckin’ dots they are a noose around your head… way too rigid and these dots, in my opinion, create nothing but problems to manage. (The dots are graph based opinion provided by FOMC voting members who commit to placing dots when they think the next rate increase or decrease should take place…amongst other things as well).\r\n\r\nAnalysts on Wall Street change their minds, as often as the wind changes direction and they are NOT accountable. They pop into the studios of CNBC and BLOOMBERG, spout a few comments to create news, they can be 360 degrees away from their last opinion which could have been only days previous and the anchors on TV are not bright enough to pick up on this, nor do they want to pick up on this if it sells advertising and rewards poor behavior by inviting them back time after time. They feed us sh*t and we act like farmer’s fields - we love sh*t… give us more. This creates uncertainty and only feeds a TV stations and analysts 15 minutes of fame by being as outspoken and at times as ridiculous as possible.\r\n\r\nThe current communication framework to the media is counter-productive to the FED. It’s too much information. The press conferences can deliver the written work, if required.\r\n\r\nLet me elaborate.\r\n\r\nBack to those dots, the FOMC members have the dots published and they are held accountable for weeks, if not months following. It may have been originally designed as showing insight and flexibility to market change by the FED but as far as the media is concerned the dots may as well have come down in tablets of stone off Mount Sinai delivered by Moses himself. They have to go.\r\n\r\nAs mentioned before, the FED has shifted / changed direction with policy. This is a huge event and should NOT be treated lightly.\r\n\r\nEconomic data will never be 100% positive all of the time. There will be lapses but the FED is like a 2-mile long oil tanker is takes miles to stop and many miles to turn around. There are far too many cries about no more rate hikes in 2016 the data is too bad. Based off what? One set of data… for God’s sake give me break. We are talking about the biggest economy in the world and a 0.25% rate increase was applied about 30 days ago. This year we should see a number of rate hikes to take the FED funds rate back to 1%. I think that the dot plotting showed 3 or 4 interest rate increases this year, however, because we have had some weak data they are apparently according to some parts of the media and analysts all off. We have just started month 2 of the year and it’s all off… FED policy needs to be re-written.\r\n\r\nLets get a damn grip.\r\n\r\nThe FED is going to raise rates this year. The calls for zero rate hikes even in the first six months are totally premature and are based off day-to-day reactions. The FED deals long term, very long term, it has to.\r\n\r\nIt would probably help the FED immensely if no pre-warning was given and no “dot excel sheets” were produced for distribution. The market creates it’s own uncertainty and it becomes the story of “The fish that got away” when all is said and done. The FED has its dots, it just a self-induced production for the markets to beat them over the head with.\r\n\r\nI know matters are not helped when individual FOMC members bask in their 15 minutes of glory from time to time like vice-chairman Stanley Fischer did last week. Comments made that make it look like there will be no rate increase in March based on the fact there are U.S. growth concerns on the first half of 2016, not only screw with my open trades, but on a more serious note undermine FED policy.\r\n\r\nHow times change. Am I now to believe that because the FED is raising rates the U.S. economy is now suddenly a load of sh**e, when only weeks ago U.S. commentators were doing the we’re great, the EUROZONE and the rest of the world is sh**e? Analysts and TV anchors cannot have it all ways they are not demi-Gods.\r\n\r\nWhilst it is a data dependent world that we live in, we have to be calm and measured about moving forward. The FED waited a year to hike rates to just 0.25% to start on a path of normality in the U.S. economy.\r\n\r\nTo simply write off FED interest rate activity for the first 6 months of 2016, is a dangerous thing to do, in my opinion.\r\n\r\nYou should never under-estimate a central bank and of all the central banks to under-estimate in my opinion only a fool would under-estimate the FED.\r\n\r\nUnder Janet Yellen’s leadership the Fed has been patient, deliberate, timely and probably too communicative for it’s own good. They have a plan, they talk with other central banks, they know what is coming up and the react, plan and schedule maybe at a snails pace, but that is the nature of the beast… it is what they do and how they do it. One month’s run of poor data will not derail the plan.\r\n\r\nThe naysayer’s were out in force ahead of NFP with doom and gloom and after the data release they crawled back under the rocks from where they came from.\r\n\r\nThe underlining economy in the U.S. is stronger and more resilient than most of us appreciate, the FED are experts at what they do.\r\n\r\nMost of the time the “Cry babies” as I call them, are investment managers who are unable to cope with a two-way market having spent most of the pasty 5/6 years operating with FED support in a one-sided marketplace.\r\n\r\nFinally the FED is HAWKISH.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) EXCLUSIVE CONTENT:\r\n</strong>(This area contains exclusive content for PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) subscribers)</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>4.1: THE PREMIUM SERVICE – TRADING REVIEW:\r\n</strong>(This section can cover a multitude of points / facts etc. Basically it’s a 360-degree review, which I think should interest subscribers):\r\n\r\nThe start of February was a step back from January’s performance. A net decrease in pips generated. I traded lighter than usual, but took a few hits on trades that I could have executed better. With my attempts to let trades run and gain more pips and $$$, I fell foul of snapbacks, sentiment changes and market uncertainty that just literally took trades away from me and my approach was to cover and take a loss.\r\n\r\nObviously, this week and next I need to recover my position and move forward.\r\n\r\nWe are currently at the whim of equities and oil, whilst I have stayed away from the USD/CAD and crosses in particular, the markets are hung up on oil and I see this together with the JPY reaction to Kuroda’s QQE and negative rates as the key drivers again this week.\r\n\r\nIn real terms the EUR/USD has played second, or even third fiddle to the USD/JPY and USD/CAD recently.\r\n\r\nAs you may have noticed I have gone back to cross rate pairs like the AUD/NZD and EUR/GBP as core trades moving forward. For the near future, I think maybe being away from too many USD is perhaps not a bad thing given the uncertainties.\r\n\r\nHowever, as always, the market is fluid and I will be ready to react but I think stepping aside at times is the best approach.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>4.2: TRADE STYLE DEFINITIONS:</strong>\r\n\r\n<u>4.2.1: RADAR TRADES:\r\n</u>These are pre-meditated entry trades set from either Fibonacci levels, pivot points or previous support and resistance based off a combination of horizontal or trend line support or resistance.\r\nThe goal is always if possible to swing trade these trades by establishing a position that if market conditions apply allow the trade to gather traction and develop into a longer-term position trade.\r\n\r\n<u>4.2.2: FLASH TRADES:\r\n</u>Mainly simply, opportunist trades in LIVE market conditions. These trades are either based off a pullback strategy, a GIMME10 strategy, or off momentum in a trading pair at the time of entry.\r\nThe goal is to either take 10-30 pips or see a sufficient move to place a protective stop in place to see if a swing trade develops.\r\nSome FLASH TRADES may form part of an overall trading plan with a given currency pair, but the entry could not be made via a LIMIT ORDER. In addition in 2016, some FLASH TRADES can be of a longer duration, with very specific goals.\r\n\r\n<u>4.2.3: FUNDAMENTAL TRADES:\r\n</u>These will be trades based off my TRADING PLAN goals for trades in line with my longer-term market views.\r\nTrades in this area will use in addition Fibonacci levels, Pivot points, trend lines and prior support and resistance levels, weekly and monthly ATR’s (Average True Ranges) when setting Stop Loss levels.\r\nThese trades are hopefully of a longer-term nature. They will be initially “single-lot” sized trades due to the wider stop placements that will be applied.\r\n\r\n<u>4.2.4: PART-TIME TRADER TRADES:\r\n</u>These trade set-ups are intended to have a longer-term trading perspective. They are not only targeted at traders who consider they are part-time Forex traders; obviously, all traders can of course take advantage. (My definition of a part-time trader is one who is only able to look at their computer screens, or, mobile devices to check trades two or three times a day).\r\n\r\nA key feature of these set-ups is that they have much wider than normal stops to allow for market swings and volatility. The trades therefore have a smaller position size to allow for the swings in volatility, but multiple trades in the same currency pair are added when the core trade has gained traction in the desired direction.\r\n\r\nMy goal is to have multiple trades open/live at any one time and maybe 2/3 open/live trades with the same currency pair. I will of course suggest to take some profits along the way, but hopefully at the same time letting trades run as far as possible.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>4.3: THE PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE SPREADSHEETS (INCLUDING LIVE &amp; LIMIT ORDER TRADES):</strong>\r\n\r\nFull and complete details surrounding these trades can be found inside the PREMIUM SERVICE on my website.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>4.4: REVIEW OF OPEN LIMIT ORDER TRADES NOT YET TRIGGERED:</strong><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.1: RADAR LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n</u>\r\nRT640 – AUD/CHF: This trade failed to trigger last Friday by fractions of pips. It is a really good entry level with good risk to reward values. If it does not trigger at the open this week I may manually trigger the trade.\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.2: FUNDAMENTAL LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n\r\n</u>FUN256 – EUR/GBP: This trade is still valid as it is this pair’s resistance level, where I believe the pair will turn lower.\r\n\r\nFUN262 – GBP/NZD: This could be a great trade. The potential for pips is enormous. The cup and handle measured move could take years to play out and the move is 12,500 pips.\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.3: PART-TIME TRADER LIMIT ORDER TRADES: </u>\r\n\r\nPART032 – GBP/NZD: This could be a great trade. The potential for pips is enormous. The cup and handle measured move could take years to play out and the move is 12,500 pips.\r\n\r\nPART034 – AUD/CHF: This trade failed to trigger last Friday by fractions of pips. It is a really good entry level with good risk to reward values. If it does not trigger at the open this week I may manually trigger the trade.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n	<li><strong> COMING UP THIS WEEK:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5.1: THIS WEEK’S FOREX NEWS THAT INTERESTS ME:\r\n</u>(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market other than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to <a href=\"http://www.forexfactory.com\">www.forexfactory.com</a> and <a href=\"http://www.tradingeconomics.com\">www.tradingeconomics.com</a> for a more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).\r\n\r\nSUNDAY: CNY – Trade Balance.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – Janet Yellen – Testifies.\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – Crude Oil Inventories.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: USD – Core and Retail Sales.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>5.1: THE USD MAJORS SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS: </u>\r\n\r\n(In this section I have as usual kept my charts as minimalist as possible. With regards to charting in my opinion less is more!! I hope that they are clear. All readers regardless of level of experience should be able to follow my thoughts from my comments to the levels on the charts with ease)\r\n\r\nMy comments are contained on the charts.\r\n\r\nEUR/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.1156\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/eurusd-d-06022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7271\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7271\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/EURUSD-D-06022016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"EURUSD D 06022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.4499\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/gbpusd-d-06022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7272\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7272\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/GBPUSD-D-06022016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"GBPUSD D 06022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.7062\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/audusd-d-06022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7270\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7270\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/AUDUSD-D-06022016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"AUDUSD D 06022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.6621\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/nzdusd-d-06022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7273\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7273\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/NZDUSD-D-06022016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"NZDUSD D 06022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.3914\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/usdcad-d-06022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7274\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7274\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCAD-D-06022016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"USDCAD D 06022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF - Weekly Closing Price: 0.9904\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/usdchf-d-06022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7275\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7275\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCHF-D-06022016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"USDCHF D 06022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY - Weekly Closing Price: 116.81\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/usdjpy-d-06022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7276\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7276\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDJPY-D-06022016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"USDJPY D 06022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3: CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nThere is not a great deal of high beta economic data scheduled for release this week. I therefore believe that we will be held hostage to a large extent by the equity markets and oil.\r\n\r\nThe market is extremely fickle at the moment and I want to be sensible with my approach. Whilst I have several live trades and a few limit orders pending I will remain lower key for the short term.\r\n\r\nI always remember being told in my early days of trading some of your best trades will be the ones that you did not take. Never a truer set of words spoken. I will always have a daily objective and plan to execute, but now is the time to really let the trades come to you.\r\n\r\nThe response to NFP last Friday was rather muted and weird. In my opinion, the markets expected an overall failure, which they did not receive. The markets are strange at the best of times. Wall Street expects and believes that the FED will prop matters up at every twist and turn. Personally, I think that they have realized that they have met their match with Janet Yellen. Yellen is calm, mostly predictable and unruffled. Wall Street could learn a thing or two from Janet Yellen.\r\n\r\nWhilst Wall Street continues its adjustment to normalization, it looks like the central bank divergence trade will require a little more time to re-assert itself. During this period I will step back a little.\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nTake care,\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nDATE: 6<sup>th</sup> February 2016\r\nBLOG REFERENCE: PREMIUM SERVICE #88\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','NEVER WRITE OFF THE FED','','inherit','closed','closed','','7277-revision-v1','','','2016-02-06 12:38:42','2016-02-06 17:38:42','',7277,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/7277-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(7279,1,'2016-02-06 12:39:00','2016-02-06 17:39:00','<h3 style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU</strong></h3>\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li><strong> INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThe revisions in length and format of my blog are now complete and I will run with this for the next few weeks gauging feedback to tweak here and there if required.\r\n\r\nJust to remind you; to be the next winner of a free subscription; if you subscribe to receive this blog via my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> you are automatically entered into a free monthly draw. Each month during 2016 one lucky subscriber will receive a free subscription to the PREMIUM SERVICE (SILVER). It costs nothing to subscribe via my website and it could be you that wins. The next draw is at the end of this month.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>2.1: WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber, fee based trade set-up option for Forex traders regardless of experience or background. I provide traders suggested trades, and some market commentary related to open trades or factors within the overall market that have my interest.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and the various trade styles plus how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nAdditional information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE you will require a PayPal account.<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u>2.2: PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE THIS MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>NET PIPS THIS MONTH SO FAR: -261</strong>\r\n<strong>NET PIPS THIS YEAR SO FAR: +1,138</strong></p>\r\nIf you want more data or detail about the performance and my website does not answer your questions, contact me directly and I will supply the trading data you require. There are NO secrets. There are many, many spreadsheets detailing performance trade by trade and by trade style, way too many to place in this blog. If you are interested in the PREMIUM SERVICE and want more information, all you have to do is ask.\r\n\r\n<u>2.3: PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBER PROMOTION:</u>\r\n\r\nPlease note that until the end of February 2016, I have in place a very special subscription offer. This can be checked out on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by clicking on the FX PROMOTIONS tab at the top of the page.\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>3.1: LAST WEEK’S NEWS – MY THOUGHTS:</strong>\r\n\r\nFor me the fallout from the BOJ negative interest rate policy announcement, which starts next week, dominated the price action.\r\n\r\nAdd this to oil price volatility and Stanley Fischer (Vice-Chairman FED) comments about U.S. interest rate hikes and it gave us an eventful week. Basically, the USD was taken to the woodshed and given a handsome spanking.\r\n\r\nFrom what I could see on my twitter feed nobody appeared to lose any money, obviously everyone except myself knew what oil and Fischer was going to do and say. Happy days once again if you trade currencies, its just amazing day after day that nobody admits to having a poor run of trades or loss of cash.\r\n\r\nLast week, I banked a few pips and $$$, but I gave back more than I stashed away, very annoying and frustrating.\r\n\r\nThen last Friday we had U.S. NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls); the headline number was weaker than expected at 151,000. However, the unemployment rate was at 4.9%, the first time below 5% since February 2008. The average hourly earnings increased, as did the labour force participation rate. If earnings increase this is seen as an inflation indicator, even if it rises by one penny!\r\n\r\nIn my opinion what follows NFP is now no better than a gambling session at times. It is just a chop fest and it is fast becoming a mugs game after NFP.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>3.2: WHAT’S ON MY MIND:</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>NEVER WRITE OFF THE FED</strong></p>\r\nI am quite astonished this week reading through the selection of reports and opinions from institutions and analysts that cross my desk, plus the ones I seek out with regards to comments about the FED, its policies and implementations.\r\n\r\nI know that we live in an instant gratification world, however, the scrutiny of every word, comma placement and reference takes on a rather compulsive obsessive behavioral agenda, where it appears to me more than ever the FED are in a no win situation. They are damned if they do and damned if they don\'t!\r\n\r\nThere is so much scrutiny and commentary that any market move, weak economic data release that is contrary to prior content in a FED statement renders that particular FED statement invalid by the markets and analysts. I know that this is nothing really new but it is now treated as dead in the water.\r\n\r\nWhat do I mean?\r\n\r\nOver the past two weeks, we have heard from the BOJ, RBNZ, RBA, BOE and the FED.\r\n\r\nAs Forex traders central bank policy is probably the biggest influence on currency prices and we have to take note of policy updates, changes and the verbal comments made to try and obtain an edge in knowing what the various central bank governors are thinking. I think we all get that, however, the amount of commentary about the FED won’t do this and the Fed can’t do that commentary only about 30 days since changing the direction of the world’s largest economy is staggering.\r\n\r\nMost of this commentary I believe the FED can fix themselves and eradicate the uncertainty that this scrutiny brings upon the markets which ultimately manifests as FEAR and GREED (see later).\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, a lot of the problems sit at the door of the news frenzied media, which gives non-accountable bloody idiots airtime to discuss issues that are way beyond their pay grade. They tell us what the FED is thinking and doing almost on an hourly basis. This is ludicrous and quite frankly irresponsible by the media to encourage this propaganda that only fuels uncertainty and instability, which are core responsibilities of a central bank. Long gone are the days that news organizations reported on news, they are now pre-occupied with creating news.\r\n\r\nThe FED is probably the most powerful institution in the world. I have written in the past about how the media has elevated bank governors / presidents to “Rock Star” status.\r\n\r\nHowever, before moving forward, let’s “Take a step back” as Jim Kerr of Simple Minds would sing and look at “Where are we now”, as David Bowie sang, with regards to the central banks?\r\n\r\nECB: - Basically, we have heard from Mario Draghi, re-iterating that price stability and inflation are probably the two main drivers that influence his policies. The EUROZONE has real issues, economies running little better than DEFLATION and a collection of leaders and bankers who have yet to unite on anything. Mario Draghi has promised that he will use 100% of his mandate to deliver 2% inflation to the EUROZONE. He has recently extended QE (Quantitative Easing) and he has applied negative interest rates to ECB deposits in an attempt to force the banking sector to lend and stimulate growth in support of his macro policies.\r\n\r\nTo coin a phrase he is DOVISH.\r\n\r\nBOJ: - Not wanting to be outdone, we should also note that Japan through the BOJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda has also made very similar comments to Mario Draghi. “Whatever” and “as long as it takes” are his key giveaways with regards to the BOJ and the QQE (Quantitative and Qualitative Easing) program they have in situ. Like most central banks targets for inflation are pushed out to buy more time. The BOJ has been doing this since the mid 1990’s. The BOJ has been dealing with DEFLATION for decades and whilst numerous failed attempts have resulted in ritual suicides and God only knows what else, Kuroda has the dosh to throw at this problem. Whether he succeeds or not is another kettle of fish, so to speak, but he is saying and doing all the usual things. Just over a week ago he introduced negative interest rates for banks and large institutions. Whilst this is initially a very modest start at 0.10%, it shows future intent.\r\n\r\nTo coin a phrase he is DOVISH.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nBOE: - Very recently we heard “Farmer” Carney with his JCB announce that the UK growth forecasts for the next three years would be cut. Carney blamed the U.S. economy (If Donald Trump were President he would sue over that remark, he’s sued over less before) and obviously the price of oil. He now sees the UK inflation target of 2% being achieved in 2018.\r\n\r\nCarney still maintains that the next interest rate move by the BOE will be up. However, there is great uncertainty in the UK with the BREXIT “will they / wont they” media polls that sporadically appear. What we do know is the EUROZONE has enough of its own issues to deal with and hopes that the UK terms of inclusion would just go away. There is little chance of that and as a huge net contributor to the EUROZONE purse finally it looks like someone is trying to dare I say get some value for money. This must concern Carney and the BOE.\r\n\r\nCarney was HAWKISH… now I believe he is NEUTRAL to turning DOVISH if waves of uncertainty sweep across the UK.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nRBNZ: - Next we have Graeme Wheeler at the RBNZ. He is ready to act, or so he tells us, and the chances of rate increases in New Zealand this year are pretty much ruled out. Economic data flatters from time to time but the China slowdown effect (New Zealand’s largest trade partner) has not yet hit home. Added to China we have Dairy Prices, which have produced really poor auction results of late and these are bearish for the NZD and the economy moving forward.\r\n\r\nWheeler was NEUTRAL… now he wants to be accommodative but without being called a DOVE. From my perspective he is NEUTRAL turning DOVISH.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nRBA: - Glenn Stevens at the RBA is a master juggler. Sydney housing boom, commodity prices plunging and economic data mixed. How do you manage a way forward in that environment? He has left the door open for future accommodation if required. Low inflation is a concern but not enough at the moment to warrant easing.\r\n\r\nFor now he is NEUTRAL.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nSNB: - Then we have Thomas Jordan at the SNB. Negative interest rates already in play at 0.75% and finally the EUR/CHF is above 1.1000. Whilst we all applaud him for the negative interest rate tactic that is being copied the world over, I somehow believe that the EUR/CHF was being supported above 1.0750 by the SNB and probably very quietly some under the counter transactions have taken place to gently push it higher. The EUR/CHF seems unable to retrace like the other CHF pairs of late…interesting… call me cynical, it’s like water off a ducks back, I have been called much worse. Are they (SNB) playing the same games as the other central banks? Yes and no.\r\n\r\nWithout doubt though Jordan is accommodative and therefore he is DOVISH.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nBOC: - Stephen Poloz at the BOC, God love him. He has a new government, which will be looser on the purse strings than the previous, and he has oil prices to contend with. Although oil only accounts for around 10% of the contribution to Canada’s GDP the “loonie” is treated as a proxy for oil pricing. The Canadian economy is “up the Swannee” without a paddle and no matter how much spin is placed on the data, the straight facts are that oil is important to the Canadian economy for jobs and ancillary jobs and production etc so the prolonged price of WTi below $40.00 must be causing pain. To brush this fact off is total bulls**t.\r\n\r\nI think that if it was not for the fact that the first budget by Justin Trudeau is coming very soon the BOC would have cut rates. Instead, they hold the powder dry waiting to see if the political stimulus provided through the budget will have the desired effect on the Canadian economy. It is very risky. Bare in mind in the run up to the last BOC Rate Statement, both QE and negative interest rates, were discussed by BOC committee members. This one is not over yet.\r\n\r\nStephen Poloz and the BOC are allegedly NEUTRAL.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nFED: - Janet Yellen the FED chair, inherited from her predecessor Ben Bernanke a theater of transparency in which the markets would be advised ahead of every decision that the FED was about to make. Let me be fair; this was a great decision at the time, the world’s finances were in a mess, banks were under capitalized and there were very frequent stress tests to ensure that the banks ratios were in line with the FED’s objectives to prevent a further bank catastrophe.\r\n“Helicopter Ben” was out delivery bucket loads of cash like a modern day Santa dropping wedges of crisp notes all over New York and Chicago and a jolly time was had by all. “Do not worry” Ben will save you, Ben will do whatever to ensure price stability, the power of the FED is behind you.\r\n\r\nFor 6/7 years Wall Street was supported, there were no surprises no upsets. The U.S. was at rock bottom and the FED telegraphed it’s every move to ensure that there were no uncertainties and no surprises.\r\n\r\nPoor, Janet Yellen worked through this 100% support time with Bernanke, but now she has to move the FED into the next period, being normal again. It is challenging and it’s never been done before coming out of ultra supportive QE policies into normality once again.\r\n\r\nTo make it more difficult she has to contend with the feckin’ dots. Holy Mother of God, talk about Turkey’s voting for Christmas… get rid of the feckin’ dots they are a noose around your head… way too rigid and these dots, in my opinion, create nothing but problems to manage. (The dots are graph based opinion provided by FOMC voting members who commit to placing dots when they think the next rate increase or decrease should take place…amongst other things as well).\r\n\r\nAnalysts on Wall Street change their minds, as often as the wind changes direction and they are NOT accountable. They pop into the studios of CNBC and BLOOMBERG, spout a few comments to create news, they can be 360 degrees away from their last opinion which could have been only days previous and the anchors on TV are not bright enough to pick up on this, nor do they want to pick up on this if it sells advertising and rewards poor behavior by inviting them back time after time. They feed us sh*t and we act like farmer’s fields - we love sh*t… give us more. This creates uncertainty and only feeds a TV stations and analysts 15 minutes of fame by being as outspoken and at times as ridiculous as possible.\r\n\r\nThe current communication framework to the media is counter-productive to the FED. It’s too much information. The press conferences can deliver the written work, if required.\r\n\r\nLet me elaborate.\r\n\r\nBack to those dots, the FOMC members have the dots published and they are held accountable for weeks, if not months following. It may have been originally designed as showing insight and flexibility to market change by the FED but as far as the media is concerned the dots may as well have come down in tablets of stone off Mount Sinai delivered by Moses himself. They have to go.\r\n\r\nAs mentioned before, the FED has shifted / changed direction with policy. This is a huge event and should NOT be treated lightly.\r\n\r\nEconomic data will never be 100% positive all of the time. There will be lapses but the FED is like a 2-mile long oil tanker is takes miles to stop and many miles to turn around. There are far too many cries about no more rate hikes in 2016 the data is too bad. Based off what? One set of data… for God’s sake give me break. We are talking about the biggest economy in the world and a 0.25% rate increase was applied about 30 days ago. This year we should see a number of rate hikes to take the FED funds rate back to 1%. I think that the dot plotting showed 3 or 4 interest rate increases this year, however, because we have had some weak data they are apparently according to some parts of the media and analysts all off. We have just started month 2 of the year and it’s all off… FED policy needs to be re-written.\r\n\r\nLets get a damn grip.\r\n\r\nThe FED is going to raise rates this year. The calls for zero rate hikes even in the first six months are totally premature and are based off day-to-day reactions. The FED deals long term, very long term, it has to.\r\n\r\nIt would probably help the FED immensely if no pre-warning was given and no “dot excel sheets” were produced for distribution. The market creates it’s own uncertainty and it becomes the story of “The fish that got away” when all is said and done. The FED has its dots, it just a self-induced production for the markets to beat them over the head with.\r\n\r\nI know matters are not helped when individual FOMC members bask in their 15 minutes of glory from time to time like vice-chairman Stanley Fischer did last week. Comments made that make it look like there will be no rate increase in March based on the fact there are U.S. growth concerns on the first half of 2016, not only screw with my open trades, but on a more serious note undermine FED policy.\r\n\r\nHow times change. Am I now to believe that because the FED is raising rates the U.S. economy is now suddenly a load of sh**e, when only weeks ago U.S. commentators were doing the we’re great, the EUROZONE and the rest of the world is sh**e? Analysts and TV anchors cannot have it all ways they are not demi-Gods.\r\n\r\nWhilst it is a data dependent world that we live in, we have to be calm and measured about moving forward. The FED waited a year to hike rates to just 0.25% to start on a path of normality in the U.S. economy.\r\n\r\nTo simply write off FED interest rate activity for the first 6 months of 2016, is a dangerous thing to do, in my opinion.\r\n\r\nYou should never under-estimate a central bank and of all the central banks to under-estimate in my opinion only a fool would under-estimate the FED.\r\n\r\nUnder Janet Yellen’s leadership the Fed has been patient, deliberate, timely and probably too communicative for it’s own good. They have a plan, they talk with other central banks, they know what is coming up and the react, plan and schedule maybe at a snails pace, but that is the nature of the beast… it is what they do and how they do it. One month’s run of poor data will not derail the plan.\r\n\r\nThe naysayer’s were out in force ahead of NFP with doom and gloom and after the data release they crawled back under the rocks from where they came from.\r\n\r\nThe underlining economy in the U.S. is stronger and more resilient than most of us appreciate, the FED are experts at what they do.\r\n\r\nMost of the time the “Cry babies” as I call them, are investment managers who are unable to cope with a two-way market having spent most of the pasty 5/6 years operating with FED support in a one-sided marketplace.\r\n\r\nFinally the FED is HAWKISH.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) EXCLUSIVE CONTENT:\r\n</strong>(This area contains exclusive content for PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) subscribers)</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>4.1: THE PREMIUM SERVICE – TRADING REVIEW:\r\n</strong>(This section can cover a multitude of points / facts etc. Basically it’s a 360-degree review, which I think should interest subscribers):\r\n\r\nThe start of February was a step back from January’s performance. A net decrease in pips generated. I traded lighter than usual, but took a few hits on trades that I could have executed better. With my attempts to let trades run and gain more pips and $$$, I fell foul of snapbacks, sentiment changes and market uncertainty that just literally took trades away from me and my approach was to cover and take a loss.\r\n\r\nObviously, this week and next I need to recover my position and move forward.\r\n\r\nWe are currently at the whim of equities and oil, whilst I have stayed away from the USD/CAD and crosses in particular, the markets are hung up on oil and I see this together with the JPY reaction to Kuroda’s QQE and negative rates as the key drivers again this week.\r\n\r\nIn real terms the EUR/USD has played second, or even third fiddle to the USD/JPY and USD/CAD recently.\r\n\r\nAs you may have noticed I have gone back to cross rate pairs like the AUD/NZD and EUR/GBP as core trades moving forward. For the near future, I think maybe being away from too many USD is perhaps not a bad thing given the uncertainties.\r\n\r\nHowever, as always, the market is fluid and I will be ready to react but I think stepping aside at times is the best approach.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>4.2: TRADE STYLE DEFINITIONS:</strong>\r\n\r\n<u>4.2.1: RADAR TRADES:\r\n</u>These are pre-meditated entry trades set from either Fibonacci levels, pivot points or previous support and resistance based off a combination of horizontal or trend line support or resistance.\r\nThe goal is always if possible to swing trade these trades by establishing a position that if market conditions apply allow the trade to gather traction and develop into a longer-term position trade.\r\n\r\n<u>4.2.2: FLASH TRADES:\r\n</u>Mainly simply, opportunist trades in LIVE market conditions. These trades are either based off a pullback strategy, a GIMME10 strategy, or off momentum in a trading pair at the time of entry.\r\nThe goal is to either take 10-30 pips or see a sufficient move to place a protective stop in place to see if a swing trade develops.\r\nSome FLASH TRADES may form part of an overall trading plan with a given currency pair, but the entry could not be made via a LIMIT ORDER. In addition in 2016, some FLASH TRADES can be of a longer duration, with very specific goals.\r\n\r\n<u>4.2.3: FUNDAMENTAL TRADES:\r\n</u>These will be trades based off my TRADING PLAN goals for trades in line with my longer-term market views.\r\nTrades in this area will use in addition Fibonacci levels, Pivot points, trend lines and prior support and resistance levels, weekly and monthly ATR’s (Average True Ranges) when setting Stop Loss levels.\r\nThese trades are hopefully of a longer-term nature. They will be initially “single-lot” sized trades due to the wider stop placements that will be applied.\r\n\r\n<u>4.2.4: PART-TIME TRADER TRADES:\r\n</u>These trade set-ups are intended to have a longer-term trading perspective. They are not only targeted at traders who consider they are part-time Forex traders; obviously, all traders can of course take advantage. (My definition of a part-time trader is one who is only able to look at their computer screens, or, mobile devices to check trades two or three times a day).\r\n\r\nA key feature of these set-ups is that they have much wider than normal stops to allow for market swings and volatility. The trades therefore have a smaller position size to allow for the swings in volatility, but multiple trades in the same currency pair are added when the core trade has gained traction in the desired direction.\r\n\r\nMy goal is to have multiple trades open/live at any one time and maybe 2/3 open/live trades with the same currency pair. I will of course suggest to take some profits along the way, but hopefully at the same time letting trades run as far as possible.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>4.3: THE PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE SPREADSHEETS (INCLUDING LIVE &amp; LIMIT ORDER TRADES):</strong>\r\n\r\nFull and complete details surrounding these trades can be found inside the PREMIUM SERVICE on my website.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>4.4: REVIEW OF OPEN LIMIT ORDER TRADES NOT YET TRIGGERED:</strong><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.1: RADAR LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n</u>\r\nRT640 – AUD/CHF: This trade failed to trigger last Friday by fractions of pips. It is a really good entry level with good risk to reward values. If it does not trigger at the open this week I may manually trigger the trade.\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.2: FUNDAMENTAL LIMIT ORDER TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\nFUN256 – EUR/GBP: This trade is still valid as it is this pair’s resistance level, where I believe the pair will turn lower.\r\n\r\nFUN262 – GBP/NZD: This could be a great trade. The potential for pips is enormous. The cup and handle measured move could take years to play out and the move is 12,500 pips.\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.3: PART-TIME TRADER LIMIT ORDER TRADES: </u>\r\n\r\nPART032 – GBP/NZD: This could be a great trade. The potential for pips is enormous. The cup and handle measured move could take years to play out and the move is 12,500 pips.\r\n\r\nPART034 – AUD/CHF: This trade failed to trigger last Friday by fractions of pips. It is a really good entry level with good risk to reward values. If it does not trigger at the open this week I may manually trigger the trade.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n	<li><strong> COMING UP THIS WEEK:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5.1: THIS WEEK’S FOREX NEWS THAT INTERESTS ME:\r\n</u>(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market other than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to <a href=\"http://www.forexfactory.com\">www.forexfactory.com</a> and <a href=\"http://www.tradingeconomics.com\">www.tradingeconomics.com</a> for a more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).\r\n\r\nSUNDAY: CNY – Trade Balance.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – Janet Yellen – Testifies.\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – Crude Oil Inventories.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: USD – Core and Retail Sales.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>5.1: THE USD MAJORS SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS: </u>\r\n\r\n(In this section I have as usual kept my charts as minimalist as possible. With regards to charting in my opinion less is more!! I hope that they are clear. All readers regardless of level of experience should be able to follow my thoughts from my comments to the levels on the charts with ease)\r\n\r\nMy comments are contained on the charts.\r\n\r\nEUR/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.1156\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/eurusd-d-06022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7271\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7271\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/EURUSD-D-06022016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"EURUSD D 06022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.4499\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/gbpusd-d-06022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7272\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7272\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/GBPUSD-D-06022016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"GBPUSD D 06022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.7062\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/audusd-d-06022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7270\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7270\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/AUDUSD-D-06022016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"AUDUSD D 06022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.6621\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/nzdusd-d-06022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7273\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7273\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/NZDUSD-D-06022016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"NZDUSD D 06022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.3914\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/usdcad-d-06022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7274\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7274\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCAD-D-06022016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"USDCAD D 06022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF - Weekly Closing Price: 0.9904\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/usdchf-d-06022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7275\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7275\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCHF-D-06022016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"USDCHF D 06022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY - Weekly Closing Price: 116.81\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/usdjpy-d-06022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7276\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7276\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDJPY-D-06022016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"USDJPY D 06022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3: CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nThere is not a great deal of high beta economic data scheduled for release this week. I therefore believe that we will be held hostage to a large extent by the equity markets and oil.\r\n\r\nThe market is extremely fickle at the moment and I want to be sensible with my approach. Whilst I have several live trades and a few limit orders pending I will remain lower key for the short term.\r\n\r\nI always remember being told in my early days of trading some of your best trades will be the ones that you did not take. Never a truer set of words spoken. I will always have a daily objective and plan to execute, but now is the time to really let the trades come to you.\r\n\r\nThe response to NFP last Friday was rather muted and weird. In my opinion, the markets expected an overall failure, which they did not receive. The markets are strange at the best of times. Wall Street expects and believes that the FED will prop matters up at every twist and turn. Personally, I think that they have realized that they have met their match with Janet Yellen. Yellen is calm, mostly predictable and unruffled. Wall Street could learn a thing or two from Janet Yellen.\r\n\r\nWhilst Wall Street continues its adjustment to normalization, it looks like the central bank divergence trade will require a little more time to re-assert itself. During this period I will step back a little.\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nTake care,\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nDATE: 6<sup>th</sup> February 2016\r\nBLOG REFERENCE: PREMIUM SERVICE #88\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','NEVER WRITE OFF THE FED','','inherit','closed','closed','','7277-revision-v1','','','2016-02-06 12:39:00','2016-02-06 17:39:00','',7277,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/7277-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(7280,1,'2016-02-06 12:54:35','2016-02-06 17:54:35','<h3 style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong><u>THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU</u></strong></h3>\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li><strong> INTRODUCTION:</strong><strong> </strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThe revisions in length and format of my blog are now complete and I will run with this for the next few weeks gauging feedback to tweak here and there if required.\r\n\r\nJust to remind you; to be the next winner of a free subscription; if you subscribe to receive this blog via my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> you are automatically entered into a free monthly draw. Each month during 2016 one lucky subscriber will receive a free subscription to the PREMIUM SERVICE (SILVER). It costs nothing to subscribe via my website and it could be you that wins. The next draw is at the end of this month.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong><strong> </strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>2.1: WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber, fee based trade set-up option for Forex traders regardless of experience or background. I provide traders suggested trades, and some market commentary related to open trades or factors within the overall market that have my interest.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and the various trade styles plus how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nAdditional information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE you will require a PayPal account.\r\n\r\n<u>2.2: PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE THIS MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>NET PIPS THIS MONTH SO FAR: -261</strong>\r\n<strong>NET PIPS THIS YEAR SO FAR: +1,138</strong></p>\r\nIf you want more data or detail about the performance and my website does not answer your questions, contact me directly and I will supply the trading data you require. There are NO secrets. There are many, many spreadsheets detailing performance trade by trade and by trade style, way too many to place in this blog. If you are interested in the PREMIUM SERVICE and want more information, all you have to do is ask.\r\n\r\n<u>2.3: PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBER PROMOTION:</u>\r\n\r\nPlease note that until the end of February 2016, I have in place a very special subscription offer. This can be checked out on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by clicking on the FX PROMOTIONS tab at the top of the page.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>3.1: LAST WEEK’S NEWS – MY THOUGHTS:</strong>\r\n\r\nFor me the fallout from the BOJ negative interest rate policy announcement, which starts next week, dominated the price action.\r\n\r\nAdd this to oil price volatility and Stanley Fischer (Vice-Chairman FED) comments about U.S. interest rate hikes and it gave us an eventful week. Basically, the USD was taken to the woodshed and given a handsome spanking.\r\n\r\nFrom what I could see on my twitter feed nobody appeared to lose any money, obviously everyone except myself knew what oil and Fischer was going to do and say. Happy days once again if you trade currencies, its just amazing day after day that nobody admits to having a poor run of trades or loss of cash.\r\n\r\nLast week, I banked a few pips and $$$, but I gave back more than I stashed away, very annoying and frustrating.\r\n\r\nThen last Friday we had U.S. NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls); the headline number was weaker than expected at 151,000. However, the unemployment rate was at 4.9%, the first time below 5% since February 2008. The average hourly earnings increased, as did the labour force participation rate. If earnings increase this is seen as an inflation indicator, even if it rises by one penny!\r\n\r\nIn my opinion what follows NFP is now no better than a gambling session at times. It is just a chop fest and it is fast becoming a mugs game after NFP.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>3.2: WHAT’S ON MY MIND:</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>NEVER WRITE OFF THE FED</strong></p>\r\nI am quite astonished this week reading through the selection of reports and opinions from institutions and analysts that cross my desk, plus the ones I seek out with regards to comments about the FED, its policies and implementations.\r\n\r\nI know that we live in an instant gratification world, however, the scrutiny of every word, comma placement and reference takes on a rather compulsive obsessive behavioral agenda, where it appears to me more than ever the FED are in a no win situation. They are damned if they do and damned if they don\'t!\r\n\r\nThere is so much scrutiny and commentary that any market move, weak economic data release that is contrary to prior content in a FED statement renders that particular FED statement invalid by the markets and analysts. I know that this is nothing really new but it is now treated as dead in the water.\r\n\r\nWhat do I mean?\r\n\r\nOver the past two weeks, we have heard from the BOJ, RBNZ, RBA, BOE and the FED.\r\n\r\nAs Forex traders central bank policy is probably the biggest influence on currency prices and we have to take note of policy updates, changes and the verbal comments made to try and obtain an edge in knowing what the various central bank governors are thinking. I think we all get that, however, the amount of commentary about the FED won’t do this and the Fed can’t do that commentary only about 30 days since changing the direction of the world’s largest economy is staggering.\r\n\r\nMost of this commentary I believe the FED can fix themselves and eradicate the uncertainty that this scrutiny brings upon the markets which ultimately manifests as FEAR and GREED (see later).\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, a lot of the problems sit at the door of the news frenzied media, which gives non-accountable bloody idiots airtime to discuss issues that are way beyond their pay grade. They tell us what the FED is thinking and doing almost on an hourly basis. This is ludicrous and quite frankly irresponsible by the media to encourage this propaganda that only fuels uncertainty and instability, which are core responsibilities of a central bank. Long gone are the days that news organizations reported on news, they are now pre-occupied with creating news.\r\n\r\nThe FED is probably the most powerful institution in the world. I have written in the past about how the media has elevated bank governors / presidents to “Rock Star” status.\r\n\r\nHowever, before moving forward, let’s “Take a step back” as Jim Kerr of Simple Minds would sing and look at “Where are we now”, as David Bowie sang, with regards to the central banks?\r\n\r\nECB: - Basically, we have heard from Mario Draghi, re-iterating that price stability and inflation are probably the two main drivers that influence his policies. The EUROZONE has real issues, economies running little better than DEFLATION and a collection of leaders and bankers who have yet to unite on anything. Mario Draghi has promised that he will use 100% of his mandate to deliver 2% inflation to the EUROZONE. He has recently extended QE (Quantitative Easing) and he has applied negative interest rates to ECB deposits in an attempt to force the banking sector to lend and stimulate growth in support of his macro policies.\r\n\r\nTo coin a phrase he is DOVISH.\r\n\r\nBOJ: - Not wanting to be outdone, we should also note that Japan through the BOJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda has also made very similar comments to Mario Draghi. “Whatever” and “as long as it takes” are his key giveaways with regards to the BOJ and the QQE (Quantitative and Qualitative Easing) program they have in situ. Like most central banks targets for inflation are pushed out to buy more time. The BOJ has been doing this since the mid 1990’s. The BOJ has been dealing with DEFLATION for decades and whilst numerous failed attempts have resulted in ritual suicides and God only knows what else, Kuroda has the dosh to throw at this problem. Whether he succeeds or not is another kettle of fish, so to speak, but he is saying and doing all the usual things. Just over a week ago he introduced negative interest rates for banks and large institutions. Whilst this is initially a very modest start at 0.10%, it shows future intent.\r\n\r\nTo coin a phrase he is DOVISH.\r\n\r\nBOE: - Very recently we heard “Farmer” Carney with his JCB announce that the UK growth forecasts for the next three years would be cut. Carney blamed the U.S. economy (If Donald Trump were President he would sue over that remark, he’s sued over less before) and obviously the price of oil. He now sees the UK inflation target of 2% being achieved in 2018.\r\n\r\nCarney still maintains that the next interest rate move by the BOE will be up. However, there is great uncertainty in the UK with the BREXIT “will they / wont they” media polls that sporadically appear. What we do know is the EUROZONE has enough of its own issues to deal with and hopes that the UK terms of inclusion would just go away. There is little chance of that and as a huge net contributor to the EUROZONE purse finally it looks like someone is trying to dare I say get some value for money. This must concern Carney and the BOE.\r\n\r\nCarney was HAWKISH… now I believe he is NEUTRAL to turning DOVISH if waves of uncertainty sweep across the UK.\r\n\r\nRBNZ: - Next we have Graeme Wheeler at the RBNZ. He is ready to act, or so he tells us, and the chances of rate increases in New Zealand this year are pretty much ruled out. Economic data flatters from time to time but the China slowdown effect (New Zealand’s largest trade partner) has not yet hit home. Added to China we have Dairy Prices, which have produced really poor auction results of late and these are bearish for the NZD and the economy moving forward.\r\n\r\nWheeler was NEUTRAL… now he wants to be accommodative but without being called a DOVE. From my perspective he is NEUTRAL turning DOVISH.\r\n\r\nRBA: - Glenn Stevens at the RBA is a master juggler. Sydney housing boom, commodity prices plunging and economic data mixed. How do you manage a way forward in that environment? He has left the door open for future accommodation if required. Low inflation is a concern but not enough at the moment to warrant easing.\r\n\r\nFor now he is NEUTRAL.\r\n\r\nSNB: - Then we have Thomas Jordan at the SNB. Negative interest rates already in play at 0.75% and finally the EUR/CHF is above 1.1000. Whilst we all applaud him for the negative interest rate tactic that is being copied the world over, I somehow believe that the EUR/CHF was being supported above 1.0750 by the SNB and probably very quietly some under the counter transactions have taken place to gently push it higher. The EUR/CHF seems unable to retrace like the other CHF pairs of late…interesting… call me cynical, it’s like water off a ducks back, I have been called much worse. Are they (SNB) playing the same games as the other central banks? Yes and no.\r\n\r\nWithout doubt though Jordan is accommodative and therefore he is DOVISH.\r\n\r\nBOC: - Stephen Poloz at the BOC, God love him. He has a new government, which will be looser on the purse strings than the previous, and he has oil prices to contend with. Although oil only accounts for around 10% of the contribution to Canada’s GDP the “loonie” is treated as a proxy for oil pricing. The Canadian economy is “up the Swannee” without a paddle and no matter how much spin is placed on the data, the straight facts are that oil is important to the Canadian economy for jobs and ancillary jobs and production etc so the prolonged price of WTi below $40.00 must be causing pain. To brush this fact off is total bulls**t.\r\n\r\nI think that if it was not for the fact that the first budget by Justin Trudeau is coming very soon the BOC would have cut rates. Instead, they hold the powder dry waiting to see if the political stimulus provided through the budget will have the desired effect on the Canadian economy. It is very risky. Bare in mind in the run up to the last BOC Rate Statement, both QE and negative interest rates, were discussed by BOC committee members. This one is not over yet.\r\n\r\nStephen Poloz and the BOC are allegedly NEUTRAL.\r\n\r\nFED: - Janet Yellen the FED chair, inherited from her predecessor Ben Bernanke a theater of transparency in which the markets would be advised ahead of every decision that the FED was about to make. Let me be fair; this was a great decision at the time, the world’s finances were in a mess, banks were under capitalized and there were very frequent stress tests to ensure that the banks ratios were in line with the FED’s objectives to prevent a further bank catastrophe.\r\n“Helicopter Ben” was out delivery bucket loads of cash like a modern day Santa dropping wedges of crisp notes all over New York and Chicago and a jolly time was had by all. “Do not worry” Ben will save you, Ben will do whatever to ensure price stability, the power of the FED is behind you.\r\n\r\nFor 6/7 years Wall Street was supported, there were no surprises no upsets. The U.S. was at rock bottom and the FED telegraphed it’s every move to ensure that there were no uncertainties and no surprises.\r\n\r\nPoor, Janet Yellen worked through this 100% support time with Bernanke, but now she has to move the FED into the next period, being normal again. It is challenging and it’s never been done before coming out of ultra supportive QE policies into normality once again.\r\n\r\nTo make it more difficult she has to contend with the feckin’ dots. Holy Mother of God, talk about Turkey’s voting for Christmas… get rid of the feckin’ dots they are a noose around your head… way too rigid and these dots, in my opinion, create nothing but problems to manage.\r\n\r\n(The dots are graph based opinion provided by FOMC voting members who commit to placing dots when they think the next rate increase or decrease should take place…amongst other things as well).\r\n\r\nAnalysts on Wall Street change their minds, as often as the wind changes direction and they are NOT accountable. They pop into the studios of CNBC and BLOOMBERG, spout a few comments to create news, they can be 360 degrees away from their last opinion which could have been only days previous and the anchors on TV are not bright enough to pick up on this, nor do they want to pick up on this if it sells advertising and rewards poor behavior by inviting them back time after time. They feed us sh*t and we act like farmer’s fields - we love sh*t… give us more. This creates uncertainty and only feeds a TV stations and analysts 15 minutes of fame by being as outspoken and at times as ridiculous as possible.\r\n\r\nThe current communication framework to the media is counter-productive to the FED. It’s too much information. The press conferences can deliver the written work, if required.\r\n\r\nLet me elaborate.\r\n\r\nBack to those dots, the FOMC members have the dots published and they are held accountable for weeks, if not months following. It may have been originally designed as showing insight and flexibility to market change by the FED but as far as the media is concerned the dots may as well have come down in tablets of stone off Mount Sinai delivered by Moses himself. They have to go.\r\n\r\nAs mentioned before, the FED has shifted / changed direction with policy. This is a huge event and should NOT be treated lightly.\r\n\r\nEconomic data will never be 100% positive all of the time. There will be lapses but the FED is like a 2-mile long oil tanker is takes miles to stop and many miles to turn around. There are far too many cries about no more rate hikes in 2016 the data is too bad. Based off what? One set of data… for God’s sake give me break. We are talking about the biggest economy in the world and a 0.25% rate increase was applied about 30 days ago. This year we should see a number of rate hikes to take the FED funds rate back to 1%. I think that the dot plotting showed 3 or 4 interest rate increases this year, however, because we have had some weak data they are apparently according to some parts of the media and analysts all off. We have just started month 2 of the year and it’s all off… FED policy needs to be re-written.\r\n\r\nLets get a damn grip.\r\n\r\nThe FED is going to raise rates this year. The calls for zero rate hikes even in the first six months are totally premature and are based off day-to-day reactions. The FED deals long term, very long term, it has to.\r\n\r\nIt would probably help the FED immensely if no pre-warning was given and no “dot excel sheets” were produced for distribution. The market creates it’s own uncertainty and it becomes the story of “The fish that got away” when all is said and done. The FED has its dots, it just a self-induced production for the markets to beat them over the head with.\r\n\r\nI know matters are not helped when individual FOMC members bask in their 15 minutes of glory from time to time like vice-chairman Stanley Fischer did last week. Comments made that make it look like there will be no rate increase in March based on the fact there are U.S. growth concerns on the first half of 2016, not only screw with my open trades, but on a more serious note undermine FED policy.\r\n\r\nHow times change. Am I now to believe that because the FED is raising rates the U.S. economy is now suddenly a load of sh**e, when only weeks ago U.S. commentators were doing the we’re great, the EUROZONE and the rest of the world is sh**e? Analysts and TV anchors cannot have it all ways they are not demi-Gods.\r\n\r\nWhilst it is a data dependent world that we live in, we have to be calm and measured about moving forward. The FED waited a year to hike rates to just 0.25% to start on a path of normality in the U.S. economy.\r\n\r\nTo simply write off FED interest rate activity for the first 6 months of 2016, is a dangerous thing to do, in my opinion.\r\n\r\nYou should never under-estimate a central bank and of all the central banks to under-estimate in my opinion only a fool would under-estimate the FED.\r\n\r\nUnder Janet Yellen’s leadership the Fed has been patient, deliberate, timely and probably too communicative for it’s own good. They have a plan, they talk with other central banks, they know what is coming up and the react, plan and schedule maybe at a snails pace, but that is the nature of the beast… it is what they do and how they do it. One month’s run of poor data will not derail the plan.\r\n\r\nThe naysayer’s were out in force ahead of NFP with doom and gloom and after the data release they crawled back under the rocks from where they came from.\r\n\r\nThe underlining economy in the U.S. is stronger and more resilient than most of us appreciate, the FED are experts at what they do.\r\n\r\nMost of the time the “Cry babies” as I call them, are investment managers who are unable to cope with a two-way market having spent most of the pasty 5/6 years operating with FED support in a one-sided marketplace.\r\n\r\nFinally the FED is HAWKISH.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) EXCLUSIVE CONTENT:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(This area contains exclusive content for PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) subscribers)\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n	<li><strong> COMING UP THIS WEEK:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5.1: THIS WEEK’S FOREX NEWS THAT INTERESTS ME:</u>\r\n\r\n(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market other than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to <a href=\"http://www.forexfactory.com\">www.forexfactory.com</a> and <a href=\"http://www.tradingeconomics.com\">www.tradingeconomics.com</a> for a more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).\r\nSUNDAY: CNY – Trade Balance.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – Janet Yellen – Testifies.\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – Crude Oil Inventories.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: USD – Core and Retail Sales.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>5.1: THE USD MAJORS SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS: </u>\r\n\r\n(In this section I have as usual kept my charts as minimalist as possible. With regards to charting in my opinion less is more!! I hope that they are clear. All readers regardless of level of experience should be able to follow my thoughts from my comments to the levels on the charts with ease)\r\n\r\nMy comments are contained on the charts.\r\n\r\nEUR/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.1156\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/never-write-off-the-fed/eurusd-d-06022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7271\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7271\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/EURUSD-D-06022016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"EURUSD D 06022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.4499\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/never-write-off-the-fed/gbpusd-d-06022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7272\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7272\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/GBPUSD-D-06022016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"GBPUSD D 06022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.7062\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/never-write-off-the-fed/audusd-d-06022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7270\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7270\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/AUDUSD-D-06022016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"AUDUSD D 06022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.6621\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/never-write-off-the-fed/nzdusd-d-06022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7273\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7273\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/NZDUSD-D-06022016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"NZDUSD D 06022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.3914\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/never-write-off-the-fed/usdcad-d-06022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7274\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7274\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCAD-D-06022016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"USDCAD D 06022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF - Weekly Closing Price: 0.9904\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/never-write-off-the-fed/usdchf-d-06022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7275\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7275\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCHF-D-06022016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"USDCHF D 06022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY - Weekly Closing Price: 116.81\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/never-write-off-the-fed/usdjpy-d-06022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7276\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7276\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDJPY-D-06022016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"USDJPY D 06022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.3: CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nThere is not a great deal of high beta economic data scheduled for release this week. I therefore believe that we will be held hostage to a large extent by the equity markets and oil.\r\n\r\nThe market is extremely fickle at the moment and I want to be sensible with my approach. Whilst I have several live trades and a few limit orders pending I will remain lower key for the short term.\r\n\r\nI always remember being told in my early days of trading some of your best trades will be the ones that you did not take. Never a truer set of words spoken. I will always have a daily objective and plan to execute, but now is the time to really let the trades come to you.\r\n\r\nThe response to NFP last Friday was rather muted and weird. In my opinion, the markets expected an overall failure, which they did not receive. The markets are strange at the best of times. Wall Street expects and believes that the FED will prop matters up at every twist and turn. Personally, I think that they have realized that they have met their match with Janet Yellen. Yellen is calm, mostly predictable and unruffled. Wall Street could learn a thing or two from Janet Yellen.\r\n\r\nWhilst Wall Street continues its adjustment to normalization, it looks like the central bank divergence trade will require a little more time to re-assert itself. During this period I will step back a little.\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nTake care,\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nDATE: 6<sup>th</sup> February 2016\r\nBLOG REFERENCE: #DRIVE THRU #187\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','NEVER WRITE OFF THE FED','','publish','open','closed','','never-write-off-the-fed','','','2016-02-06 12:54:35','2016-02-06 17:54:35','',0,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?p=7280',0,'post','',0),(7281,1,'2016-02-06 12:54:19','2016-02-06 17:54:19','<h3 style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong><u>THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU</u></strong></h3>\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li><strong> INTRODUCTION:</strong><strong> </strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThe revisions in length and format of my blog are now complete and I will run with this for the next few weeks gauging feedback to tweak here and there if required.\r\n\r\nJust to remind you; to be the next winner of a free subscription; if you subscribe to receive this blog via my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> you are automatically entered into a free monthly draw. Each month during 2016 one lucky subscriber will receive a free subscription to the PREMIUM SERVICE (SILVER). It costs nothing to subscribe via my website and it could be you that wins. The next draw is at the end of this month.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong><strong> </strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>2.1: WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber, fee based trade set-up option for Forex traders regardless of experience or background. I provide traders suggested trades, and some market commentary related to open trades or factors within the overall market that have my interest.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and the various trade styles plus how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nAdditional information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE you will require a PayPal account.\r\n\r\n<u>2.2: PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE THIS MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">\r\n<strong>NET PIPS THIS MONTH SO FAR: -261</strong>\r\n<strong>NET PIPS THIS YEAR SO FAR: +1,138</strong></p>\r\nIf you want more data or detail about the performance and my website does not answer your questions, contact me directly and I will supply the trading data you require. There are NO secrets. There are many, many spreadsheets detailing performance trade by trade and by trade style, way too many to place in this blog. If you are interested in the PREMIUM SERVICE and want more information, all you have to do is ask.\r\n\r\n<u>2.3: PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBER PROMOTION:</u>\r\n\r\nPlease note that until the end of February 2016, I have in place a very special subscription offer. This can be checked out on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by clicking on the FX PROMOTIONS tab at the top of the page.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>3.1: LAST WEEK’S NEWS – MY THOUGHTS:</strong>\r\n\r\nFor me the fallout from the BOJ negative interest rate policy announcement, which starts next week, dominated the price action.\r\n\r\nAdd this to oil price volatility and Stanley Fischer (Vice-Chairman FED) comments about U.S. interest rate hikes and it gave us an eventful week. Basically, the USD was taken to the woodshed and given a handsome spanking.\r\n\r\nFrom what I could see on my twitter feed nobody appeared to lose any money, obviously everyone except myself knew what oil and Fischer was going to do and say. Happy days once again if you trade currencies, its just amazing day after day that nobody admits to having a poor run of trades or loss of cash.\r\n\r\nLast week, I banked a few pips and $$$, but I gave back more than I stashed away, very annoying and frustrating.\r\n\r\nThen last Friday we had U.S. NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls); the headline number was weaker than expected at 151,000. However, the unemployment rate was at 4.9%, the first time below 5% since February 2008. The average hourly earnings increased, as did the labour force participation rate. If earnings increase this is seen as an inflation indicator, even if it rises by one penny!\r\n\r\nIn my opinion what follows NFP is now no better than a gambling session at times. It is just a chop fest and it is fast becoming a mugs game after NFP.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>3.2: WHAT’S ON MY MIND:</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>NEVER WRITE OFF THE FED</strong></p>\r\nI am quite astonished this week reading through the selection of reports and opinions from institutions and analysts that cross my desk, plus the ones I seek out with regards to comments about the FED, its policies and implementations.\r\n\r\nI know that we live in an instant gratification world, however, the scrutiny of every word, comma placement and reference takes on a rather compulsive obsessive behavioral agenda, where it appears to me more than ever the FED are in a no win situation. They are damned if they do and damned if they don\'t!\r\n\r\nThere is so much scrutiny and commentary that any market move, weak economic data release that is contrary to prior content in a FED statement renders that particular FED statement invalid by the markets and analysts. I know that this is nothing really new but it is now treated as dead in the water.\r\n\r\nWhat do I mean?\r\n\r\nOver the past two weeks, we have heard from the BOJ, RBNZ, RBA, BOE and the FED.\r\n\r\nAs Forex traders central bank policy is probably the biggest influence on currency prices and we have to take note of policy updates, changes and the verbal comments made to try and obtain an edge in knowing what the various central bank governors are thinking. I think we all get that, however, the amount of commentary about the FED won’t do this and the Fed can’t do that commentary only about 30 days since changing the direction of the world’s largest economy is staggering.\r\n\r\nMost of this commentary I believe the FED can fix themselves and eradicate the uncertainty that this scrutiny brings upon the markets which ultimately manifests as FEAR and GREED (see later).\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, a lot of the problems sit at the door of the news frenzied media, which gives non-accountable bloody idiots airtime to discuss issues that are way beyond their pay grade. They tell us what the FED is thinking and doing almost on an hourly basis. This is ludicrous and quite frankly irresponsible by the media to encourage this propaganda that only fuels uncertainty and instability, which are core responsibilities of a central bank. Long gone are the days that news organizations reported on news, they are now pre-occupied with creating news.\r\n\r\nThe FED is probably the most powerful institution in the world. I have written in the past about how the media has elevated bank governors / presidents to “Rock Star” status.\r\n\r\nHowever, before moving forward, let’s “Take a step back” as Jim Kerr of Simple Minds would sing and look at “Where are we now”, as David Bowie sang, with regards to the central banks?\r\n\r\nECB: - Basically, we have heard from Mario Draghi, re-iterating that price stability and inflation are probably the two main drivers that influence his policies. The EUROZONE has real issues, economies running little better than DEFLATION and a collection of leaders and bankers who have yet to unite on anything. Mario Draghi has promised that he will use 100% of his mandate to deliver 2% inflation to the EUROZONE. He has recently extended QE (Quantitative Easing) and he has applied negative interest rates to ECB deposits in an attempt to force the banking sector to lend and stimulate growth in support of his macro policies.\r\n\r\nTo coin a phrase he is DOVISH.\r\n\r\nBOJ: - Not wanting to be outdone, we should also note that Japan through the BOJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda has also made very similar comments to Mario Draghi. “Whatever” and “as long as it takes” are his key giveaways with regards to the BOJ and the QQE (Quantitative and Qualitative Easing) program they have in situ. Like most central banks targets for inflation are pushed out to buy more time. The BOJ has been doing this since the mid 1990’s. The BOJ has been dealing with DEFLATION for decades and whilst numerous failed attempts have resulted in ritual suicides and God only knows what else, Kuroda has the dosh to throw at this problem. Whether he succeeds or not is another kettle of fish, so to speak, but he is saying and doing all the usual things. Just over a week ago he introduced negative interest rates for banks and large institutions. Whilst this is initially a very modest start at 0.10%, it shows future intent.\r\n\r\nTo coin a phrase he is DOVISH.\r\n\r\nBOE: - Very recently we heard “Farmer” Carney with his JCB announce that the UK growth forecasts for the next three years would be cut. Carney blamed the U.S. economy (If Donald Trump were President he would sue over that remark, he’s sued over less before) and obviously the price of oil. He now sees the UK inflation target of 2% being achieved in 2018.\r\n\r\nCarney still maintains that the next interest rate move by the BOE will be up. However, there is great uncertainty in the UK with the BREXIT “will they / wont they” media polls that sporadically appear. What we do know is the EUROZONE has enough of its own issues to deal with and hopes that the UK terms of inclusion would just go away. There is little chance of that and as a huge net contributor to the EUROZONE purse finally it looks like someone is trying to dare I say get some value for money. This must concern Carney and the BOE.\r\n\r\nCarney was HAWKISH… now I believe he is NEUTRAL to turning DOVISH if waves of uncertainty sweep across the UK.\r\n\r\nRBNZ: - Next we have Graeme Wheeler at the RBNZ. He is ready to act, or so he tells us, and the chances of rate increases in New Zealand this year are pretty much ruled out. Economic data flatters from time to time but the China slowdown effect (New Zealand’s largest trade partner) has not yet hit home. Added to China we have Dairy Prices, which have produced really poor auction results of late and these are bearish for the NZD and the economy moving forward.\r\n\r\nWheeler was NEUTRAL… now he wants to be accommodative but without being called a DOVE. From my perspective he is NEUTRAL turning DOVISH.\r\n\r\nRBA: - Glenn Stevens at the RBA is a master juggler. Sydney housing boom, commodity prices plunging and economic data mixed. How do you manage a way forward in that environment? He has left the door open for future accommodation if required. Low inflation is a concern but not enough at the moment to warrant easing.\r\n\r\nFor now he is NEUTRAL.\r\n\r\nSNB: - Then we have Thomas Jordan at the SNB. Negative interest rates already in play at 0.75% and finally the EUR/CHF is above 1.1000. Whilst we all applaud him for the negative interest rate tactic that is being copied the world over, I somehow believe that the EUR/CHF was being supported above 1.0750 by the SNB and probably very quietly some under the counter transactions have taken place to gently push it higher. The EUR/CHF seems unable to retrace like the other CHF pairs of late…interesting… call me cynical, it’s like water off a ducks back, I have been called much worse. Are they (SNB) playing the same games as the other central banks? Yes and no.\r\n\r\nWithout doubt though Jordan is accommodative and therefore he is DOVISH.\r\n\r\nBOC: - Stephen Poloz at the BOC, God love him. He has a new government, which will be looser on the purse strings than the previous, and he has oil prices to contend with. Although oil only accounts for around 10% of the contribution to Canada’s GDP the “loonie” is treated as a proxy for oil pricing. The Canadian economy is “up the Swannee” without a paddle and no matter how much spin is placed on the data, the straight facts are that oil is important to the Canadian economy for jobs and ancillary jobs and production etc so the prolonged price of WTi below $40.00 must be causing pain. To brush this fact off is total bulls**t.\r\n\r\nI think that if it was not for the fact that the first budget by Justin Trudeau is coming very soon the BOC would have cut rates. Instead, they hold the powder dry waiting to see if the political stimulus provided through the budget will have the desired effect on the Canadian economy. It is very risky. Bare in mind in the run up to the last BOC Rate Statement, both QE and negative interest rates, were discussed by BOC committee members. This one is not over yet.\r\n\r\nStephen Poloz and the BOC are allegedly NEUTRAL.\r\n\r\nFED: - Janet Yellen the FED chair, inherited from her predecessor Ben Bernanke a theater of transparency in which the markets would be advised ahead of every decision that the FED was about to make. Let me be fair; this was a great decision at the time, the world’s finances were in a mess, banks were under capitalized and there were very frequent stress tests to ensure that the banks ratios were in line with the FED’s objectives to prevent a further bank catastrophe.\r\n“Helicopter Ben” was out delivery bucket loads of cash like a modern day Santa dropping wedges of crisp notes all over New York and Chicago and a jolly time was had by all. “Do not worry” Ben will save you, Ben will do whatever to ensure price stability, the power of the FED is behind you.\r\n\r\nFor 6/7 years Wall Street was supported, there were no surprises no upsets. The U.S. was at rock bottom and the FED telegraphed it’s every move to ensure that there were no uncertainties and no surprises.\r\n\r\nPoor, Janet Yellen worked through this 100% support time with Bernanke, but now she has to move the FED into the next period, being normal again. It is challenging and it’s never been done before coming out of ultra supportive QE policies into normality once again.\r\n\r\nTo make it more difficult she has to contend with the feckin’ dots. Holy Mother of God, talk about Turkey’s voting for Christmas… get rid of the feckin’ dots they are a noose around your head… way too rigid and these dots, in my opinion, create nothing but problems to manage.\r\n\r\n(The dots are graph based opinion provided by FOMC voting members who commit to placing dots when they think the next rate increase or decrease should take place…amongst other things as well).\r\n\r\nAnalysts on Wall Street change their minds, as often as the wind changes direction and they are NOT accountable. They pop into the studios of CNBC and BLOOMBERG, spout a few comments to create news, they can be 360 degrees away from their last opinion which could have been only days previous and the anchors on TV are not bright enough to pick up on this, nor do they want to pick up on this if it sells advertising and rewards poor behavior by inviting them back time after time. They feed us sh*t and we act like farmer’s fields - we love sh*t… give us more. This creates uncertainty and only feeds a TV stations and analysts 15 minutes of fame by being as outspoken and at times as ridiculous as possible.\r\n\r\nThe current communication framework to the media is counter-productive to the FED. It’s too much information. The press conferences can deliver the written work, if required.\r\n\r\nLet me elaborate.\r\n\r\nBack to those dots, the FOMC members have the dots published and they are held accountable for weeks, if not months following. It may have been originally designed as showing insight and flexibility to market change by the FED but as far as the media is concerned the dots may as well have come down in tablets of stone off Mount Sinai delivered by Moses himself. They have to go.\r\n\r\nAs mentioned before, the FED has shifted / changed direction with policy. This is a huge event and should NOT be treated lightly.\r\n\r\nEconomic data will never be 100% positive all of the time. There will be lapses but the FED is like a 2-mile long oil tanker is takes miles to stop and many miles to turn around. There are far too many cries about no more rate hikes in 2016 the data is too bad. Based off what? One set of data… for God’s sake give me break. We are talking about the biggest economy in the world and a 0.25% rate increase was applied about 30 days ago. This year we should see a number of rate hikes to take the FED funds rate back to 1%. I think that the dot plotting showed 3 or 4 interest rate increases this year, however, because we have had some weak data they are apparently according to some parts of the media and analysts all off. We have just started month 2 of the year and it’s all off… FED policy needs to be re-written.\r\n\r\nLets get a damn grip.\r\n\r\nThe FED is going to raise rates this year. The calls for zero rate hikes even in the first six months are totally premature and are based off day-to-day reactions. The FED deals long term, very long term, it has to.\r\n\r\nIt would probably help the FED immensely if no pre-warning was given and no “dot excel sheets” were produced for distribution. The market creates it’s own uncertainty and it becomes the story of “The fish that got away” when all is said and done. The FED has its dots, it just a self-induced production for the markets to beat them over the head with.\r\n\r\nI know matters are not helped when individual FOMC members bask in their 15 minutes of glory from time to time like vice-chairman Stanley Fischer did last week. Comments made that make it look like there will be no rate increase in March based on the fact there are U.S. growth concerns on the first half of 2016, not only screw with my open trades, but on a more serious note undermine FED policy.\r\n\r\nHow times change. Am I now to believe that because the FED is raising rates the U.S. economy is now suddenly a load of sh**e, when only weeks ago U.S. commentators were doing the we’re great, the EUROZONE and the rest of the world is sh**e? Analysts and TV anchors cannot have it all ways they are not demi-Gods.\r\n\r\nWhilst it is a data dependent world that we live in, we have to be calm and measured about moving forward. The FED waited a year to hike rates to just 0.25% to start on a path of normality in the U.S. economy.\r\n\r\nTo simply write off FED interest rate activity for the first 6 months of 2016, is a dangerous thing to do, in my opinion.\r\n\r\nYou should never under-estimate a central bank and of all the central banks to under-estimate in my opinion only a fool would under-estimate the FED.\r\n\r\nUnder Janet Yellen’s leadership the Fed has been patient, deliberate, timely and probably too communicative for it’s own good. They have a plan, they talk with other central banks, they know what is coming up and the react, plan and schedule maybe at a snails pace, but that is the nature of the beast… it is what they do and how they do it. One month’s run of poor data will not derail the plan.\r\n\r\nThe naysayer’s were out in force ahead of NFP with doom and gloom and after the data release they crawled back under the rocks from where they came from.\r\n\r\nThe underlining economy in the U.S. is stronger and more resilient than most of us appreciate, the FED are experts at what they do.\r\n\r\nMost of the time the “Cry babies” as I call them, are investment managers who are unable to cope with a two-way market having spent most of the pasty 5/6 years operating with FED support in a one-sided marketplace.\r\n\r\nFinally the FED is HAWKISH.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) EXCLUSIVE CONTENT:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(This area contains exclusive content for PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) subscribers)\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n	<li><strong> COMING UP THIS WEEK:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5.1: THIS WEEK’S FOREX NEWS THAT INTERESTS ME:</u>\r\n\r\n(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market other than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to <a href=\"http://www.forexfactory.com\">www.forexfactory.com</a> and <a href=\"http://www.tradingeconomics.com\">www.tradingeconomics.com</a> for a more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).\r\nSUNDAY: CNY – Trade Balance.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – Janet Yellen – Testifies.\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – Crude Oil Inventories.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: USD – Core and Retail Sales.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>5.1: THE USD MAJORS SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS: </u>\r\n\r\n(In this section I have as usual kept my charts as minimalist as possible. With regards to charting in my opinion less is more!! I hope that they are clear. All readers regardless of level of experience should be able to follow my thoughts from my comments to the levels on the charts with ease)\r\n\r\nMy comments are contained on the charts.\r\n\r\nEUR/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.1156\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/never-write-off-the-fed/eurusd-d-06022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7271\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7271\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/EURUSD-D-06022016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"EURUSD D 06022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.4499\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/never-write-off-the-fed/gbpusd-d-06022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7272\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7272\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/GBPUSD-D-06022016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"GBPUSD D 06022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.7062\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/never-write-off-the-fed/audusd-d-06022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7270\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7270\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/AUDUSD-D-06022016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"AUDUSD D 06022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.6621\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/never-write-off-the-fed/nzdusd-d-06022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7273\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7273\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/NZDUSD-D-06022016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"NZDUSD D 06022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.3914\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/never-write-off-the-fed/usdcad-d-06022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7274\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7274\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCAD-D-06022016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"USDCAD D 06022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF - Weekly Closing Price: 0.9904\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/never-write-off-the-fed/usdchf-d-06022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7275\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7275\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCHF-D-06022016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"USDCHF D 06022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY - Weekly Closing Price: 116.81\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/never-write-off-the-fed/usdjpy-d-06022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7276\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7276\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDJPY-D-06022016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"USDJPY D 06022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.3: CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nThere is not a great deal of high beta economic data scheduled for release this week. I therefore believe that we will be held hostage to a large extent by the equity markets and oil.\r\n\r\nThe market is extremely fickle at the moment and I want to be sensible with my approach. Whilst I have several live trades and a few limit orders pending I will remain lower key for the short term.\r\n\r\nI always remember being told in my early days of trading some of your best trades will be the ones that you did not take. Never a truer set of words spoken. I will always have a daily objective and plan to execute, but now is the time to really let the trades come to you.\r\n\r\nThe response to NFP last Friday was rather muted and weird. In my opinion, the markets expected an overall failure, which they did not receive. The markets are strange at the best of times. Wall Street expects and believes that the FED will prop matters up at every twist and turn. Personally, I think that they have realized that they have met their match with Janet Yellen. Yellen is calm, mostly predictable and unruffled. Wall Street could learn a thing or two from Janet Yellen.\r\n\r\nWhilst Wall Street continues its adjustment to normalization, it looks like the central bank divergence trade will require a little more time to re-assert itself. During this period I will step back a little.\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nTake care,\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nDATE: 6<sup>th</sup> February 2016\r\nBLOG REFERENCE: #DRIVE THRU #187\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','NEVER WRITE OFF THE FED','','inherit','closed','closed','','7280-revision-v1','','','2016-02-06 12:54:19','2016-02-06 17:54:19','',7280,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/7280-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(7282,1,'2016-02-06 12:54:35','2016-02-06 17:54:35','<h3 style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong><u>THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU</u></strong></h3>\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li><strong> INTRODUCTION:</strong><strong> </strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThe revisions in length and format of my blog are now complete and I will run with this for the next few weeks gauging feedback to tweak here and there if required.\r\n\r\nJust to remind you; to be the next winner of a free subscription; if you subscribe to receive this blog via my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> you are automatically entered into a free monthly draw. Each month during 2016 one lucky subscriber will receive a free subscription to the PREMIUM SERVICE (SILVER). It costs nothing to subscribe via my website and it could be you that wins. The next draw is at the end of this month.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong><strong> </strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>2.1: WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber, fee based trade set-up option for Forex traders regardless of experience or background. I provide traders suggested trades, and some market commentary related to open trades or factors within the overall market that have my interest.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and the various trade styles plus how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nAdditional information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE you will require a PayPal account.\r\n\r\n<u>2.2: PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE THIS MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>NET PIPS THIS MONTH SO FAR: -261</strong>\r\n<strong>NET PIPS THIS YEAR SO FAR: +1,138</strong></p>\r\nIf you want more data or detail about the performance and my website does not answer your questions, contact me directly and I will supply the trading data you require. There are NO secrets. There are many, many spreadsheets detailing performance trade by trade and by trade style, way too many to place in this blog. If you are interested in the PREMIUM SERVICE and want more information, all you have to do is ask.\r\n\r\n<u>2.3: PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBER PROMOTION:</u>\r\n\r\nPlease note that until the end of February 2016, I have in place a very special subscription offer. This can be checked out on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by clicking on the FX PROMOTIONS tab at the top of the page.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>3.1: LAST WEEK’S NEWS – MY THOUGHTS:</strong>\r\n\r\nFor me the fallout from the BOJ negative interest rate policy announcement, which starts next week, dominated the price action.\r\n\r\nAdd this to oil price volatility and Stanley Fischer (Vice-Chairman FED) comments about U.S. interest rate hikes and it gave us an eventful week. Basically, the USD was taken to the woodshed and given a handsome spanking.\r\n\r\nFrom what I could see on my twitter feed nobody appeared to lose any money, obviously everyone except myself knew what oil and Fischer was going to do and say. Happy days once again if you trade currencies, its just amazing day after day that nobody admits to having a poor run of trades or loss of cash.\r\n\r\nLast week, I banked a few pips and $$$, but I gave back more than I stashed away, very annoying and frustrating.\r\n\r\nThen last Friday we had U.S. NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls); the headline number was weaker than expected at 151,000. However, the unemployment rate was at 4.9%, the first time below 5% since February 2008. The average hourly earnings increased, as did the labour force participation rate. If earnings increase this is seen as an inflation indicator, even if it rises by one penny!\r\n\r\nIn my opinion what follows NFP is now no better than a gambling session at times. It is just a chop fest and it is fast becoming a mugs game after NFP.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>3.2: WHAT’S ON MY MIND:</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>NEVER WRITE OFF THE FED</strong></p>\r\nI am quite astonished this week reading through the selection of reports and opinions from institutions and analysts that cross my desk, plus the ones I seek out with regards to comments about the FED, its policies and implementations.\r\n\r\nI know that we live in an instant gratification world, however, the scrutiny of every word, comma placement and reference takes on a rather compulsive obsessive behavioral agenda, where it appears to me more than ever the FED are in a no win situation. They are damned if they do and damned if they don\'t!\r\n\r\nThere is so much scrutiny and commentary that any market move, weak economic data release that is contrary to prior content in a FED statement renders that particular FED statement invalid by the markets and analysts. I know that this is nothing really new but it is now treated as dead in the water.\r\n\r\nWhat do I mean?\r\n\r\nOver the past two weeks, we have heard from the BOJ, RBNZ, RBA, BOE and the FED.\r\n\r\nAs Forex traders central bank policy is probably the biggest influence on currency prices and we have to take note of policy updates, changes and the verbal comments made to try and obtain an edge in knowing what the various central bank governors are thinking. I think we all get that, however, the amount of commentary about the FED won’t do this and the Fed can’t do that commentary only about 30 days since changing the direction of the world’s largest economy is staggering.\r\n\r\nMost of this commentary I believe the FED can fix themselves and eradicate the uncertainty that this scrutiny brings upon the markets which ultimately manifests as FEAR and GREED (see later).\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, a lot of the problems sit at the door of the news frenzied media, which gives non-accountable bloody idiots airtime to discuss issues that are way beyond their pay grade. They tell us what the FED is thinking and doing almost on an hourly basis. This is ludicrous and quite frankly irresponsible by the media to encourage this propaganda that only fuels uncertainty and instability, which are core responsibilities of a central bank. Long gone are the days that news organizations reported on news, they are now pre-occupied with creating news.\r\n\r\nThe FED is probably the most powerful institution in the world. I have written in the past about how the media has elevated bank governors / presidents to “Rock Star” status.\r\n\r\nHowever, before moving forward, let’s “Take a step back” as Jim Kerr of Simple Minds would sing and look at “Where are we now”, as David Bowie sang, with regards to the central banks?\r\n\r\nECB: - Basically, we have heard from Mario Draghi, re-iterating that price stability and inflation are probably the two main drivers that influence his policies. The EUROZONE has real issues, economies running little better than DEFLATION and a collection of leaders and bankers who have yet to unite on anything. Mario Draghi has promised that he will use 100% of his mandate to deliver 2% inflation to the EUROZONE. He has recently extended QE (Quantitative Easing) and he has applied negative interest rates to ECB deposits in an attempt to force the banking sector to lend and stimulate growth in support of his macro policies.\r\n\r\nTo coin a phrase he is DOVISH.\r\n\r\nBOJ: - Not wanting to be outdone, we should also note that Japan through the BOJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda has also made very similar comments to Mario Draghi. “Whatever” and “as long as it takes” are his key giveaways with regards to the BOJ and the QQE (Quantitative and Qualitative Easing) program they have in situ. Like most central banks targets for inflation are pushed out to buy more time. The BOJ has been doing this since the mid 1990’s. The BOJ has been dealing with DEFLATION for decades and whilst numerous failed attempts have resulted in ritual suicides and God only knows what else, Kuroda has the dosh to throw at this problem. Whether he succeeds or not is another kettle of fish, so to speak, but he is saying and doing all the usual things. Just over a week ago he introduced negative interest rates for banks and large institutions. Whilst this is initially a very modest start at 0.10%, it shows future intent.\r\n\r\nTo coin a phrase he is DOVISH.\r\n\r\nBOE: - Very recently we heard “Farmer” Carney with his JCB announce that the UK growth forecasts for the next three years would be cut. Carney blamed the U.S. economy (If Donald Trump were President he would sue over that remark, he’s sued over less before) and obviously the price of oil. He now sees the UK inflation target of 2% being achieved in 2018.\r\n\r\nCarney still maintains that the next interest rate move by the BOE will be up. However, there is great uncertainty in the UK with the BREXIT “will they / wont they” media polls that sporadically appear. What we do know is the EUROZONE has enough of its own issues to deal with and hopes that the UK terms of inclusion would just go away. There is little chance of that and as a huge net contributor to the EUROZONE purse finally it looks like someone is trying to dare I say get some value for money. This must concern Carney and the BOE.\r\n\r\nCarney was HAWKISH… now I believe he is NEUTRAL to turning DOVISH if waves of uncertainty sweep across the UK.\r\n\r\nRBNZ: - Next we have Graeme Wheeler at the RBNZ. He is ready to act, or so he tells us, and the chances of rate increases in New Zealand this year are pretty much ruled out. Economic data flatters from time to time but the China slowdown effect (New Zealand’s largest trade partner) has not yet hit home. Added to China we have Dairy Prices, which have produced really poor auction results of late and these are bearish for the NZD and the economy moving forward.\r\n\r\nWheeler was NEUTRAL… now he wants to be accommodative but without being called a DOVE. From my perspective he is NEUTRAL turning DOVISH.\r\n\r\nRBA: - Glenn Stevens at the RBA is a master juggler. Sydney housing boom, commodity prices plunging and economic data mixed. How do you manage a way forward in that environment? He has left the door open for future accommodation if required. Low inflation is a concern but not enough at the moment to warrant easing.\r\n\r\nFor now he is NEUTRAL.\r\n\r\nSNB: - Then we have Thomas Jordan at the SNB. Negative interest rates already in play at 0.75% and finally the EUR/CHF is above 1.1000. Whilst we all applaud him for the negative interest rate tactic that is being copied the world over, I somehow believe that the EUR/CHF was being supported above 1.0750 by the SNB and probably very quietly some under the counter transactions have taken place to gently push it higher. The EUR/CHF seems unable to retrace like the other CHF pairs of late…interesting… call me cynical, it’s like water off a ducks back, I have been called much worse. Are they (SNB) playing the same games as the other central banks? Yes and no.\r\n\r\nWithout doubt though Jordan is accommodative and therefore he is DOVISH.\r\n\r\nBOC: - Stephen Poloz at the BOC, God love him. He has a new government, which will be looser on the purse strings than the previous, and he has oil prices to contend with. Although oil only accounts for around 10% of the contribution to Canada’s GDP the “loonie” is treated as a proxy for oil pricing. The Canadian economy is “up the Swannee” without a paddle and no matter how much spin is placed on the data, the straight facts are that oil is important to the Canadian economy for jobs and ancillary jobs and production etc so the prolonged price of WTi below $40.00 must be causing pain. To brush this fact off is total bulls**t.\r\n\r\nI think that if it was not for the fact that the first budget by Justin Trudeau is coming very soon the BOC would have cut rates. Instead, they hold the powder dry waiting to see if the political stimulus provided through the budget will have the desired effect on the Canadian economy. It is very risky. Bare in mind in the run up to the last BOC Rate Statement, both QE and negative interest rates, were discussed by BOC committee members. This one is not over yet.\r\n\r\nStephen Poloz and the BOC are allegedly NEUTRAL.\r\n\r\nFED: - Janet Yellen the FED chair, inherited from her predecessor Ben Bernanke a theater of transparency in which the markets would be advised ahead of every decision that the FED was about to make. Let me be fair; this was a great decision at the time, the world’s finances were in a mess, banks were under capitalized and there were very frequent stress tests to ensure that the banks ratios were in line with the FED’s objectives to prevent a further bank catastrophe.\r\n“Helicopter Ben” was out delivery bucket loads of cash like a modern day Santa dropping wedges of crisp notes all over New York and Chicago and a jolly time was had by all. “Do not worry” Ben will save you, Ben will do whatever to ensure price stability, the power of the FED is behind you.\r\n\r\nFor 6/7 years Wall Street was supported, there were no surprises no upsets. The U.S. was at rock bottom and the FED telegraphed it’s every move to ensure that there were no uncertainties and no surprises.\r\n\r\nPoor, Janet Yellen worked through this 100% support time with Bernanke, but now she has to move the FED into the next period, being normal again. It is challenging and it’s never been done before coming out of ultra supportive QE policies into normality once again.\r\n\r\nTo make it more difficult she has to contend with the feckin’ dots. Holy Mother of God, talk about Turkey’s voting for Christmas… get rid of the feckin’ dots they are a noose around your head… way too rigid and these dots, in my opinion, create nothing but problems to manage.\r\n\r\n(The dots are graph based opinion provided by FOMC voting members who commit to placing dots when they think the next rate increase or decrease should take place…amongst other things as well).\r\n\r\nAnalysts on Wall Street change their minds, as often as the wind changes direction and they are NOT accountable. They pop into the studios of CNBC and BLOOMBERG, spout a few comments to create news, they can be 360 degrees away from their last opinion which could have been only days previous and the anchors on TV are not bright enough to pick up on this, nor do they want to pick up on this if it sells advertising and rewards poor behavior by inviting them back time after time. They feed us sh*t and we act like farmer’s fields - we love sh*t… give us more. This creates uncertainty and only feeds a TV stations and analysts 15 minutes of fame by being as outspoken and at times as ridiculous as possible.\r\n\r\nThe current communication framework to the media is counter-productive to the FED. It’s too much information. The press conferences can deliver the written work, if required.\r\n\r\nLet me elaborate.\r\n\r\nBack to those dots, the FOMC members have the dots published and they are held accountable for weeks, if not months following. It may have been originally designed as showing insight and flexibility to market change by the FED but as far as the media is concerned the dots may as well have come down in tablets of stone off Mount Sinai delivered by Moses himself. They have to go.\r\n\r\nAs mentioned before, the FED has shifted / changed direction with policy. This is a huge event and should NOT be treated lightly.\r\n\r\nEconomic data will never be 100% positive all of the time. There will be lapses but the FED is like a 2-mile long oil tanker is takes miles to stop and many miles to turn around. There are far too many cries about no more rate hikes in 2016 the data is too bad. Based off what? One set of data… for God’s sake give me break. We are talking about the biggest economy in the world and a 0.25% rate increase was applied about 30 days ago. This year we should see a number of rate hikes to take the FED funds rate back to 1%. I think that the dot plotting showed 3 or 4 interest rate increases this year, however, because we have had some weak data they are apparently according to some parts of the media and analysts all off. We have just started month 2 of the year and it’s all off… FED policy needs to be re-written.\r\n\r\nLets get a damn grip.\r\n\r\nThe FED is going to raise rates this year. The calls for zero rate hikes even in the first six months are totally premature and are based off day-to-day reactions. The FED deals long term, very long term, it has to.\r\n\r\nIt would probably help the FED immensely if no pre-warning was given and no “dot excel sheets” were produced for distribution. The market creates it’s own uncertainty and it becomes the story of “The fish that got away” when all is said and done. The FED has its dots, it just a self-induced production for the markets to beat them over the head with.\r\n\r\nI know matters are not helped when individual FOMC members bask in their 15 minutes of glory from time to time like vice-chairman Stanley Fischer did last week. Comments made that make it look like there will be no rate increase in March based on the fact there are U.S. growth concerns on the first half of 2016, not only screw with my open trades, but on a more serious note undermine FED policy.\r\n\r\nHow times change. Am I now to believe that because the FED is raising rates the U.S. economy is now suddenly a load of sh**e, when only weeks ago U.S. commentators were doing the we’re great, the EUROZONE and the rest of the world is sh**e? Analysts and TV anchors cannot have it all ways they are not demi-Gods.\r\n\r\nWhilst it is a data dependent world that we live in, we have to be calm and measured about moving forward. The FED waited a year to hike rates to just 0.25% to start on a path of normality in the U.S. economy.\r\n\r\nTo simply write off FED interest rate activity for the first 6 months of 2016, is a dangerous thing to do, in my opinion.\r\n\r\nYou should never under-estimate a central bank and of all the central banks to under-estimate in my opinion only a fool would under-estimate the FED.\r\n\r\nUnder Janet Yellen’s leadership the Fed has been patient, deliberate, timely and probably too communicative for it’s own good. They have a plan, they talk with other central banks, they know what is coming up and the react, plan and schedule maybe at a snails pace, but that is the nature of the beast… it is what they do and how they do it. One month’s run of poor data will not derail the plan.\r\n\r\nThe naysayer’s were out in force ahead of NFP with doom and gloom and after the data release they crawled back under the rocks from where they came from.\r\n\r\nThe underlining economy in the U.S. is stronger and more resilient than most of us appreciate, the FED are experts at what they do.\r\n\r\nMost of the time the “Cry babies” as I call them, are investment managers who are unable to cope with a two-way market having spent most of the pasty 5/6 years operating with FED support in a one-sided marketplace.\r\n\r\nFinally the FED is HAWKISH.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) EXCLUSIVE CONTENT:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(This area contains exclusive content for PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) subscribers)\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n	<li><strong> COMING UP THIS WEEK:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5.1: THIS WEEK’S FOREX NEWS THAT INTERESTS ME:</u>\r\n\r\n(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market other than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to <a href=\"http://www.forexfactory.com\">www.forexfactory.com</a> and <a href=\"http://www.tradingeconomics.com\">www.tradingeconomics.com</a> for a more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).\r\nSUNDAY: CNY – Trade Balance.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – Janet Yellen – Testifies.\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – Crude Oil Inventories.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: USD – Core and Retail Sales.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>5.1: THE USD MAJORS SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS: </u>\r\n\r\n(In this section I have as usual kept my charts as minimalist as possible. With regards to charting in my opinion less is more!! I hope that they are clear. All readers regardless of level of experience should be able to follow my thoughts from my comments to the levels on the charts with ease)\r\n\r\nMy comments are contained on the charts.\r\n\r\nEUR/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.1156\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/never-write-off-the-fed/eurusd-d-06022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7271\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7271\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/EURUSD-D-06022016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"EURUSD D 06022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.4499\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/never-write-off-the-fed/gbpusd-d-06022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7272\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7272\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/GBPUSD-D-06022016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"GBPUSD D 06022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.7062\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/never-write-off-the-fed/audusd-d-06022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7270\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7270\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/AUDUSD-D-06022016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"AUDUSD D 06022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.6621\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/never-write-off-the-fed/nzdusd-d-06022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7273\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7273\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/NZDUSD-D-06022016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"NZDUSD D 06022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.3914\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/never-write-off-the-fed/usdcad-d-06022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7274\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7274\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCAD-D-06022016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"USDCAD D 06022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF - Weekly Closing Price: 0.9904\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/never-write-off-the-fed/usdchf-d-06022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7275\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7275\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCHF-D-06022016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"USDCHF D 06022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY - Weekly Closing Price: 116.81\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/never-write-off-the-fed/usdjpy-d-06022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7276\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7276\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDJPY-D-06022016-1024x538.png\" alt=\"USDJPY D 06022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.3: CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nThere is not a great deal of high beta economic data scheduled for release this week. I therefore believe that we will be held hostage to a large extent by the equity markets and oil.\r\n\r\nThe market is extremely fickle at the moment and I want to be sensible with my approach. Whilst I have several live trades and a few limit orders pending I will remain lower key for the short term.\r\n\r\nI always remember being told in my early days of trading some of your best trades will be the ones that you did not take. Never a truer set of words spoken. I will always have a daily objective and plan to execute, but now is the time to really let the trades come to you.\r\n\r\nThe response to NFP last Friday was rather muted and weird. In my opinion, the markets expected an overall failure, which they did not receive. The markets are strange at the best of times. Wall Street expects and believes that the FED will prop matters up at every twist and turn. Personally, I think that they have realized that they have met their match with Janet Yellen. Yellen is calm, mostly predictable and unruffled. Wall Street could learn a thing or two from Janet Yellen.\r\n\r\nWhilst Wall Street continues its adjustment to normalization, it looks like the central bank divergence trade will require a little more time to re-assert itself. During this period I will step back a little.\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nTake care,\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nDATE: 6<sup>th</sup> February 2016\r\nBLOG REFERENCE: #DRIVE THRU #187\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','NEVER WRITE OFF THE FED','','inherit','closed','closed','','7280-revision-v1','','','2016-02-06 12:54:35','2016-02-06 17:54:35','',7280,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/7280-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(7284,1,'2016-02-12 13:59:12','2016-02-12 18:59:12','','PS PROFITS1 13022016','','inherit','open','closed','','ps-profits1-13022016','','','2016-02-12 14:06:47','2016-02-12 19:06:47','',5000,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/PS-PROFITS1-13022016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(7285,1,'2016-02-12 13:59:44','2016-02-12 18:59:44','','PS PROFITS2 13022016','','inherit','open','closed','','ps-profits2-13022016','','','2016-02-12 14:07:05','2016-02-12 19:07:05','',5000,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/PS-PROFITS2-13022016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(7286,1,'2016-02-12 13:59:48','2016-02-12 18:59:48','','RADAR 13022016','','inherit','open','closed','','radar-13022016','','','2016-02-12 14:02:44','2016-02-12 19:02:44','',2524,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/RADAR-13022016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(7287,1,'2016-02-12 13:59:53','2016-02-12 18:59:53','','FLASH 13020216','','inherit','open','closed','','flash-13020216','','','2016-02-12 14:01:32','2016-02-12 19:01:32','',2711,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/FLASH-13020216.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(7288,1,'2016-02-12 13:59:57','2016-02-12 18:59:57','','FUN 13022016','','inherit','open','closed','','fun-13022016','','','2016-02-12 14:03:59','2016-02-12 19:03:59','',3106,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/FUN-13022016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(7289,1,'2016-02-12 14:00:01','2016-02-12 19:00:01','','PART-TIME 13022016','','inherit','open','closed','','part-time-13022016','','','2016-02-12 14:05:25','2016-02-12 19:05:25','',6965,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/PART-TIME-13022016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(7295,1,'2016-02-12 17:05:30','2016-02-12 22:05:30','','AUDUSD D 13022016','','inherit','open','closed','','audusd-d-13022016','','','2016-02-13 13:14:54','2016-02-13 18:14:54','',7302,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/AUDUSD-D-13022016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(7296,1,'2016-02-12 17:05:34','2016-02-12 22:05:34','','EURUSD D 13022016','','inherit','open','closed','','eurusd-d-13022016','','','2016-02-13 13:14:35','2016-02-13 18:14:35','',7302,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/EURUSD-D-13022016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(7297,1,'2016-02-12 17:05:36','2016-02-12 22:05:36','','GBPUSD D 13022016','','inherit','open','closed','','gbpusd-d-13022016','','','2016-02-13 13:14:44','2016-02-13 18:14:44','',7302,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/GBPUSD-D-13022016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(7298,1,'2016-02-12 17:05:40','2016-02-12 22:05:40','','NZDUSD D 13022016','','inherit','open','closed','','nzdusd-d-13022016','','','2016-02-13 13:15:04','2016-02-13 18:15:04','',7302,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/NZDUSD-D-13022016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(7299,1,'2016-02-12 17:05:43','2016-02-12 22:05:43','','USDCAD D 130202016','','inherit','open','closed','','usdcad-d-130202016','','','2016-02-13 13:15:12','2016-02-13 18:15:12','',7302,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCAD-D-130202016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(7300,1,'2016-02-12 17:05:46','2016-02-12 22:05:46','','USDCHF D 13022016','','inherit','open','closed','','usdchf-d-13022016','','','2016-02-13 13:15:21','2016-02-13 18:15:21','',7302,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCHF-D-13022016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(7301,1,'2016-02-12 17:05:50','2016-02-12 22:05:50','','USDJPY D 13022016','','inherit','open','closed','','usdjpy-d-13022016','','','2016-02-13 13:15:34','2016-02-13 18:15:34','',7302,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDJPY-D-13022016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(7302,1,'2016-02-13 13:18:08','2016-02-13 18:18:08','<strong><u>THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU</u></strong>\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li><strong> INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nI hope that after the JPY implosion over the past week you either made a ton of pips / $$$ or alternatively you may have been like me, not losing, not making pips and you missed the whole JPY pairs move because your trade limit order entries did not trigger. As long as you did not lose $$$, you live to fight another day!\r\n\r\nThe great thing about trading Forex – there is a market every day and with the market comes a different range of opportunities. It’s all about patience to accept the high probability trades and make your move. Patience is the key along with RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT for trading longevity. Trading Forex is not rocket science, fundamentally it is quite boring repetition, but with fun when you see your broker account increase.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nJust to remind you; you could be the next winner of a free PREMIUM SERVICE (SILVER) subscription; if you subscribe to receive this free blog via my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nYou are automatically entered into a free monthly draw, once you’ve subscribed. Each month during 2016 one lucky blog subscriber will receive a free subscription to the PREMIUM SERVICE (SILVER).\r\n\r\nYou could be the next lucky winner. The next draw is at the end of this month.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>2.1: WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber, fee based trade set-up option for Forex traders regardless of experience or background. I provide traders suggested trades, and some market commentary related to open trades or factors within the overall market that have my interest.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and the various trade styles plus how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nAdditional information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE you will require a PayPal account.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2: PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE THIS MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>NET PIPS THIS MONTH SO FAR:            +416</strong>\r\n<strong>NET PIPS THIS YEAR SO FAR:                +1,815</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>NET PIPS 2015        10,686</strong>\r\n<strong>NET PIPS 2014        11,209</strong></p>\r\n(I trade basically for 10 months a year. I do not trade middle July through early September or middle December through early January).\r\n\r\nIf you want more data or detail about the performance and the tabs on my website landing page do not answer your questions, contact me directly and I will supply the trading data you require. There are NO secrets. There are many, many spreadsheets detailing performance trade by trade and by trade and by trading style, way too many to place in this blog. If you are interested in the PREMIUM SERVICE and want more information, all you have to do is ask.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.3: PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBER PROMOTION:</u>\r\n\r\nPlease note that until the end of February 2016, I have a very special subscription offer in place. You can check this out on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by clicking on the FX PROMOTIONS tab at the top of the page.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>3.1: LAST WEEK’S NEWS – MY THOUGHTS:</strong>\r\n\r\nIf you trade any of the financial markets, you would have witnessed carnage during the past week unless you had your head buried in a bucket of sand like Stephen Poloz, BOC Bank Governor.\r\n\r\nThe unwinding of the JPY currency, the sell off of the Nikkei, banks stocks around the world getting crushed, oil selling off then bouncing then selling off again, the fear of local then a world recession all of these created a FEAR and GREED run.\r\n\r\nWith all the above said, I have yet to mention the little lady with a big stick (Janet Yellen, Fed Chair) who sat through her bi-annual testimony to a select committee on the hill, what I can only describe as a circus. I am really impressed with the way she stands her ground in front of these poorly educated up-starts who know very little other than to point blame and shuffle papers. No wonder Donald Trump has cross party support with the Washington protest vote. In the first hour last Wednesday, I counted 40% questions and 60% statements; this is an improvement from recent Q&amp;A. I recall 75% statements once to Ben Bernake, I know that lots of people, maybe, the vast majority couldn\'t care less, but for me politicians should be setting an example and not performing in front of the media like a collection numpties, which is what we have around the U.S. Eurozone and UK for example. Is it any wonder mainstream politics all over is suffering protest votes to fringe parties or candidates.\r\n\r\nAway from politics…\r\n\r\nFEAR rules right now and it’s dangerous.\r\n\r\nThe ripple effects of China and Oil were enough to be living with a week or so ago, now we have my list from above (JPY, Nikkei, Bank Stocks, Recession fears) to add to this.\r\n\r\nBe careful, Monday is Presidents Day in the U.S. and markets are closed. Volumes will be lower and coming off a weekend with so much geopolitical news in the air, China coming back on line after New Year holidays… it could be messy at best, choppy guaranteed and decimation at worst.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>3.2: WHAT’S ON MY MIND:</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>ARE WE HEADING INTO A STORM OF DEBT DEFAULTS?</strong></p>\r\nI was prompted to write this article due to the fact that over the past several weeks the number of pieces written by economists at the behest of areas of the media has been increasing. Delving further into what I originally perceived to be nothing other than scaremongering, it got my brain thinking maybe there is some merit in exploration. I am more of a cynic than a doom and gloom person, having said that I hope this makes your grey matter move the way it did mine.\r\n\r\nThis piece draws together not just my original thoughts but also some deeper economic theories from the research, which I hope demonstrates the potential for the storm / wave of debt default in a format that is easy to follow.\r\n\r\nI am a Forex trader, not an economist. I studied Government and Politics and British Constitution back in the day. However, it does not take a brain surgeon or rocket scientist to observe the fact that financial systems appear dangerously unstable.\r\n\r\nThe immediate effect of this is obviously a hit and test of political stability, but in my opinion confidence, if you like social stability will also suffer as FEAR grips.\r\n\r\nOver the past few days, I have heard on BLOOMBERG and CNBC and read quite a few articles where the chatter relating to recession has become almost tantamount to a fever.\r\n\r\nIs it worse than 2007?\r\n\r\nI am not sure. What I do know is that with GDP levels at 1.0%-2.5% dotted around the globe, to slip into a negative is much easier than if inflation was good at 2%, which seems to be every central banks objective. Therefore, yes; recession is a fear.\r\n\r\nSince 2007-8 the scene of the financial crash, global debt levels have once again increased. In a recession, the chance of these debts being paid or even managed in many instances would be, in my opinion quite difficult, as asset prices would nose dive rendering servicing of debt practically impossible for most.\r\n\r\nIn my blogs I often use the phrase “Burying one’s head in the sand like an ostrich”.\r\n\r\nI do not want to be judged as a doom and gloom merchant, but I do worry that in todays world obsession with instant gratification and at times fear of reality if we have the balls to actually look at what we have regarding global debts.\r\n\r\nAccounting for the fear of recession can we look objectively at what there is vis-à-vis large institutional debt and attack it based on an orderly fashion or do we once again go into crash mode with the “Too big to fail” Lehman Brothers and a potential equivalent of an AIG bailout on the cards?\r\n\r\nMy fear is that to address these issues is way beyond the current global backdrop. It is a “dog eat dog” environment especially with currencies and the fight for growth and inflation. Politically we do have leaders capable of managing this potential.\r\n\r\nEuropean banks, especially German are under real pressure and at least $1 trillion of debts (non-performing loans), have been admitted to and these are mostly associated with emerging markets. This is what we know, and as we also know from the EUROZONE there is bound to be much more under the counter.\r\n\r\nThere are massive social issues on the horizon should “bail-ins”, which is now the Eurozone bailout approach, be required for failing banks as off the street investors as well as large fund investors may have to cover debts from their deposits. If this were to happen we would have utter chaos and people would take to the streets. In my opinion, in this event, the 2007 crash would be viewed in history as minor news in comparison to what could be on the cards in the near future.\r\n\r\nBear in mind the ECB has conducted numerous bank stress tests over the past few years since the Financial crash of 2007-8. These tests were designed to show and alleviate concerns that the European banks could survive another crash. Right now, I am reading several theories that many banks are still under-capitalized and would simply fail under another crisis.<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nLet me re-iterate in this event, in my opinion, we would have panic, fear, chaos, and runs on banks and violence on the streets.\r\n\r\nWhat starts all of this?\r\n\r\nChina?\r\n\r\nIt really is hard to say. The PBOC / Chinese government want to devalue the Yuan to compete in the currency wars.\r\n\r\nI have debated the longer-term effects of QE (Quantitative Easing) over the past year or so in the blog and decided that ultimately its effects are to bring spending forward but the future catches up with you. The Chinese government will be looking at all options should they want to enter currency wars with more tools over and above currency devaluation.\r\n\r\nI think that since 2007 this has been brewing, certainly central banks have maybe not fully understood the effects of falling commodity and finished goods pricing. It was seen initially as a good thing as it meant that purchasing of goods could still carry on as the west exited the 2007-8 period.\r\n\r\nLooking back flooding of the markets with cheaper options, only fueled DEFLATION. The fact that cheaper Chinese goods flooded markets hit domestic production and domestic labour rates and employment. At the same time the central bank support of QE masks the under-belly of what was happening.\r\n\r\nNow, we have the FED trying to establish normality after a period of extensive QE and market accommodation. As we have seen this move to ‘normalization” is very difficult and challenging.\r\n\r\nEvery piece of bad economic U.S. economic data is viewed as a potential for a FED reversal, it is very challenging, very volatile and we have huge market uncertainty across all financial markets.\r\n\r\nEuropean banks were down 7% last week and I think it was a sector when we have had 7 days in a row of declines. Greece is back in recession, more stimulus is called for, and despite all of the EUR negative news the EUR/USD is now up for two weeks in a row.\r\n\r\nUncertainty, insanity, divergence, lack of correlations call it what you want, it is hard to trade on fundamentals alone at the moment and at times the technicals do not line up.\r\n\r\nI have talked a lot about DEFLATION in the past two years. Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but I wonder if the central banks had let DEFLATION flow through the markets would we be in a better global position now?\r\n\r\nAm I being unfair, I know that central banks do not know how to fight / eradicate DEFLATION. Liquidity yes, that is a prime function of a central bank, they can all improve liquidity but is that about all? Am I being unfair?\r\n\r\nAt the end of the day the FED is at the forefront, will they stoke the fire to create insolvencies around the world?\r\n\r\nJanet Yellen is caught between a “rock and a hard place”, they are in the crossfires now for trying to normalize. If they remained accommodative the debt increases on all the free money.\r\n\r\nFrom a Forex traders perspective what does all this mean?\r\n\r\nThe USD will be front and centre in my opinion. So much emerging markets debt is linked to the USD and commodities are also tied to the greenback.\r\n\r\nIf I recall 2007-8, it was the commodity currencies that were the easier trades. This time around with oil circa $30 a barrel and full scale currency wars in operation plus a China slowdown… carnage.\r\n\r\nIt would make the drama of the SNB peg removal seem a mere tranche of volatility over a day or to. Brokers would go under, rate spreads virtually impossible to trade and volatility so great you would have to be sidelined to preserve capital.\r\n\r\nEquities, bonds, options, futures or Forex would be driven by news events. It would not be pretty, it would be carnage and moves would be swift, violent and at times without foundation of facts a complete gamble would ensue.\r\n\r\nI have never seen an orderly approach to debt management, as denial is always the predecessor to the facts. In my mind it can only be dis-orderly.\r\n\r\nI hope that this never happens but it is a real risk and not a fairytale or script for Steven Speilberg or the like to mull over. Speilberg might after the event should it happen!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) EXCLUSIVE CONTENT:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(This area contains exclusive content for PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) subscribers)\r\n\r\n<strong>4.1: THE PREMIUM SERVICE – TRADING REVIEW: </strong>\r\n\r\n(This section can cover a multitude of points / facts etc. Basically it’s a 360-degree review, which I think should interest subscribers):\r\n\r\nDuring the past week, a 200 negative pip position has reversed to positive with more than 400 pips banked.\r\n\r\nIt has been a roller coaster ride. I missed all the JPY trades; you have no idea how annoyed I was at this. I think it was Wednesday lunchtime and the USD/JPY had pulled back to 115.10, my finger was ready at 115.25. It never got there and by the close that day it was border 113.00, it then fell below 110.00. Frustrating and annoying, I know that it seems that I am too cautious, but over the years I have learned the hard way that being cautious wins out in the longer term.\r\n\r\nYou guys can be reckless with your own accounts, if you wish, but use the PREMIUM SERVICE trade set up suggestions to give you a backbone of around 10,000 pips a year. My goal is to provide a consistency of approach to the best of my ability.\r\n\r\nMy initial target is 1,000 pips a month, be a “Steady Eddy” for 10 months a year. I hope that this approach comes across, as we are moving forward.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>4.2: TRADE STYLE DEFINITIONS:</strong>\r\n\r\n<u>4.2.1: RADAR TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\nThese are pre-meditated entry trades set from either Fibonacci levels, pivot points or previous support and resistance based off a combination of horizontal or trend line support or resistance.\r\nThe goal is always if possible to swing trade these trades by establishing a position that if market conditions apply allow the trade to gather traction and develop into a longer-term position trade.\r\n\r\n<u>4.2.2: FLASH TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\nMainly simply, opportunist trades in LIVE market conditions. These trades are either based off a pullback strategy, a GIMME10 strategy, or off momentum in a trading pair at the time of entry.\r\nThe goal is to either take 10-30 pips or see a sufficient move to place a protective stop in place to see if a swing trade develops.\r\nSome FLASH TRADES may form part of an overall trading plan with a given currency pair, but the entry could not be made via a LIMIT ORDER.\r\n\r\nIn addition in 2016, some FLASH TRADES can be of a longer duration, with very specific goals.\r\n\r\n<u>4.2.3: FUNDAMENTAL TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\nThese will be trades based off my TRADING PLAN goals for trades in line with my longer-term market views.\r\nTrades in this area will use in addition Fibonacci levels, Pivot points, trend lines and prior support and resistance levels, weekly and monthly ATR’s (Average True Ranges) when setting Stop Loss levels.\r\nThese trades are hopefully of a longer-term nature. They will be initially “single-lot” sized trades due to the wider stop placements that will be applied.\r\n\r\n<u>4.2.4: PART-TIME TRADER TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\nThese trade set-ups are intended to have a longer-term trading perspective. They are not only targeted at traders who consider they are part-time Forex traders; obviously, all traders can of course take advantage. (My definition of a part-time trader is one who is only able to look at their computer screens, or, mobile devices to check trades two or three times a day).\r\n\r\nA key feature of these set-ups is that they have much wider than normal stops to allow for market swings and volatility. The trades therefore have a smaller position size to allow for the swings in volatility, but multiple trades in the same currency pair are added when the core trade has gained traction in the desired direction.\r\n\r\nMy goal is to have multiple trades open/live at any one time and maybe 2/3 open/live trades with the same currency pair. I will of course suggest to take some profits along the way, but hopefully at the same time letting trades run as far as possible.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>4.3: THE PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE SPREADSHEETS (INCLUDING LIVE &amp; LIMIT ORDER TRADES):</strong>\r\n\r\nFull and complete details surrounding these trades can be found inside the PREMIUM SERVICE on my website. These can be found on the spreadsheets on the website.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>4.4: REVIEW OF OPEN LIMIT ORDER TRADES NOT YET TRIGGERED:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.1: RADAR LIMIT ORDER TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\nThere are no pending RADAR TRADE limit orders at the moment.\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.2: FUNDAMENTAL LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n</u>\r\n\r\nFUN256 – EUR/GBP: This trade is still valid as it is this pair’s resistance level, where I believe the pair will turn lower.\r\n\r\nFUN273 – EUR/USD: I have this trade just below the recent highs of 1.1473. I am not certain that this trade will trigger. We have Mario Draghi speaking Monday and the big EUROZONE growth revisions are on March 10<sup>th</sup>. I was hoping for a spike prior to this announcement. Fundamentally nothing has changed but in addition, there is nothing much that has excited me about trading this pair of late. It has been very much range bound.\r\n\r\nFUN274 – USD/CHF: Opposite to the EUR/USD. Longer-term I am still bullish this pair but if the EUR/USD spikes, this pair will fall and the lower the price the better the $$$ opportunity.\r\n\r\nFUN276 – GBP/NZD: The third trade in the long trade series.\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.3: PART-TIME TRADER LIMIT ORDER TRADES: </u>\r\n\r\nPART041 – USD/CHF: Opposite to the EUR/USD. Longer-term I am still bullish this pair but if the EUR/USD spikes, this pair will fall and the lower the price the better the $$$ opportunity.\r\n\r\nPART042 – EUR/USD: I have this trade just below the recent highs of 1.1473. I am not certain that this trade will trigger. We have Mario Draghi speaking Monday and the big EUROZONE growth revisions are on March 10<sup>th</sup>. I was hoping for a spike prior to this announcement. Fundamentally nothing has changed but in addition, there is nothing much that has excited me about trading this pair of late. It has been very much range bound.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n	<li><strong> COMING UP THIS WEEK:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5.1: THIS WEEK’S FOREX NEWS THAT INTERESTS ME:</u>\r\n\r\n(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market other than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to <a href=\"http://www.forexfactory.com\">www.forexfactory.com</a> and <a href=\"http://www.tradingeconomics.com\">www.tradingeconomics.com</a> for a more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nSUNDAY: CNY – Trade Balance.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: EUR – Draghi (ECB) speaks.\r\nMONDAY: NZD – Retail Sales and Inflation Expectations.\r\nMONDAY: AUD – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: NZD – GDT Dairy Auctions.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: GBP – Unemployment Claims.\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – FOMC Meeting Minutes.\r\nWEDNESDAY: NZD – PPi\r\nWEDNESDAY: AUD – Employment Data.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: USD – Core and Retail Sales.\r\nFRIDAY: CAD – Core and Retail Sales.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>5.1: THE USD MAJORS SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS: </u>\r\n\r\n(In this section I have as usual kept my charts as minimalist as possible. With regards to charting in my opinion less is more!! I hope that they are clear. All readers regardless of level of experience should be able to follow my thoughts from my comments to the levels on the charts with ease)\r\n\r\nMy comments are contained on the charts.\r\n\r\nEUR/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.1250\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/eurusd-d-13022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7296\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7296\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/EURUSD-D-13022016-1024x505.png\" alt=\"EURUSD D 13022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"505\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.4493\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/gbpusd-d-13022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7297\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7297\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/GBPUSD-D-13022016-1024x505.png\" alt=\"GBPUSD D 13022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"505\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.7103\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/audusd-d-13022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7295\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7295\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/AUDUSD-D-13022016-1024x505.png\" alt=\"AUDUSD D 13022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"505\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.6619\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/nzdusd-d-13022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7298\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7298\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/NZDUSD-D-13022016-1024x505.png\" alt=\"NZDUSD D 13022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"505\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.3856\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/usdcad-d-130202016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7299\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7299\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCAD-D-130202016-1024x505.png\" alt=\"USDCAD D 130202016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"505\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF - Weekly Closing Price: 0.9769\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/usdchf-d-13022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7300\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7300\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCHF-D-13022016-1024x505.png\" alt=\"USDCHF D 13022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"505\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY - Weekly Closing Price: 113.24\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/usdjpy-d-13022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7301\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7301\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDJPY-D-13022016-1024x505.png\" alt=\"USDJPY D 13022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"505\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.3: CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nVery simple this week; Monday is a U.S. holiday. I would advise being light with trading until Tuesday. Markets will be thin, volume light and probably highly speculative. Why put yourself through that?\r\n\r\nThere is a lot of high beta economic data this week. Trade on reality and not on speculation.\r\n\r\nThere will be reams of speculation this weekend, remember that\'s all it is speculation.\r\n\r\nBe savvy…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nTake care,\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nDATE: 13<sup>th</sup> February 2016\r\nBLOG REFERENCE: #89 PREMIUM SERVICE\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','ARE WE HEADING INTO A STORM OF DEBT DEFAULTS?','','publish','open','closed','','are-we-heading-into-a-storm-of-debt-defaults','','','2016-02-13 13:18:08','2016-02-13 18:18:08','',0,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?post_type=member_posts&#038;p=7302',0,'member_posts','',0),(7303,1,'2016-02-13 13:16:11','2016-02-13 18:16:11','<strong><u>THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU</u></strong>\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li><strong> INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nI hope that after the JPY implosion over the past week you either made a ton of pips / $$$ or alternatively you may have been like me, not losing, not making pips and you missed the whole JPY pairs move because your trade limit order entries did not trigger. As long as you did not lose $$$, you live to fight another day!\r\n\r\nThe great thing about trading Forex – there is a market every day and with the market comes a different range of opportunities. It’s all about patience to accept the high probability trades and make your move. Patience is the key along with RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT for trading longevity. Trading Forex is not rocket science, fundamentally it is quite boring repetition, but with fun when you see your broker account increase.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nJust to remind you; you could be the next winner of a free PREMIUM SERVICE (SILVER) subscription; if you subscribe to receive this free blog via my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nYou are automatically entered into a free monthly draw, once you’ve subscribed. Each month during 2016 one lucky blog subscriber will receive a free subscription to the PREMIUM SERVICE (SILVER).\r\n\r\nYou could be the next lucky winner. The next draw is at the end of this month.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>2.1: WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber, fee based trade set-up option for Forex traders regardless of experience or background. I provide traders suggested trades, and some market commentary related to open trades or factors within the overall market that have my interest.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and the various trade styles plus how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nAdditional information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE you will require a PayPal account.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2: PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE THIS MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">\r\n<strong>NET PIPS THIS MONTH SO FAR:            +416</strong>\r\n<strong>NET PIPS THIS YEAR SO FAR:                +1,815</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>NET PIPS 2015        10,686</strong>\r\n<strong>NET PIPS 2014        11,209</strong></p>\r\n(I trade basically for 10 months a year. I do not trade middle July through early September or middle December through early January).\r\n\r\nIf you want more data or detail about the performance and the tabs on my website landing page do not answer your questions, contact me directly and I will supply the trading data you require. There are NO secrets. There are many, many spreadsheets detailing performance trade by trade and by trade and by trading style, way too many to place in this blog. If you are interested in the PREMIUM SERVICE and want more information, all you have to do is ask.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.3: PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBER PROMOTION:</u>\r\n\r\nPlease note that until the end of February 2016, I have a very special subscription offer in place. You can check this out on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by clicking on the FX PROMOTIONS tab at the top of the page.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>3.1: LAST WEEK’S NEWS – MY THOUGHTS:</strong>\r\n\r\nIf you trade any of the financial markets, you would have witnessed carnage during the past week unless you had your head buried in a bucket of sand like Stephen Poloz, BOC Bank Governor.\r\n\r\nThe unwinding of the JPY currency, the sell off of the Nikkei, banks stocks around the world getting crushed, oil selling off then bouncing then selling off again, the fear of local then a world recession all of these created a FEAR and GREED run.\r\n\r\nWith all the above said, I have yet to mention the little lady with a big stick (Janet Yellen, Fed Chair) who sat through her bi-annual testimony to a select committee on the hill, what I can only describe as a circus. I am really impressed with the way she stands her ground in front of these poorly educated up-starts who know very little other than to point blame and shuffle papers. No wonder Donald Trump has cross party support with the Washington protest vote. In the first hour last Wednesday, I counted 40% questions and 60% statements; this is an improvement from recent Q&amp;A. I recall 75% statements once to Ben Bernake, I know that lots of people, maybe, the vast majority couldn\'t care less, but for me politicians should be setting an example and not performing in front of the media like a collection numpties, which is what we have around the U.S. Eurozone and UK for example. Is it any wonder mainstream politics all over is suffering protest votes to fringe parties or candidates.\r\n\r\nAway from politics…\r\n\r\nFEAR rules right now and it’s dangerous.\r\n\r\nThe ripple effects of China and Oil were enough to be living with a week or so ago, now we have my list from above (JPY, Nikkei, Bank Stocks, Recession fears) to add to this.\r\n\r\nBe careful, Monday is Presidents Day in the U.S. and markets are closed. Volumes will be lower and coming off a weekend with so much geopolitical news in the air, China coming back on line after New Year holidays… it could be messy at best, choppy guaranteed and decimation at worst.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>3.2: WHAT’S ON MY MIND:</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>ARE WE HEADING INTO A STORM OF DEBT DEFAULTS?</strong></p>\r\nI was prompted to write this article due to the fact that over the past several weeks the number of pieces written by economists at the behest of areas of the media has been increasing. Delving further into what I originally perceived to be nothing other than scaremongering, it got my brain thinking maybe there is some merit in exploration. I am more of a cynic than a doom and gloom person, having said that I hope this makes your grey matter move the way it did mine.\r\n\r\nThis piece draws together not just my original thoughts but also some deeper economic theories from the research, which I hope demonstrates the potential for the storm / wave of debt default in a format that is easy to follow.\r\n\r\nI am a Forex trader, not an economist. I studied Government and Politics and British Constitution back in the day. However, it does not take a brain surgeon or rocket scientist to observe the fact that financial systems appear dangerously unstable.\r\n\r\nThe immediate effect of this is obviously a hit and test of political stability, but in my opinion confidence, if you like social stability will also suffer as FEAR grips.\r\n\r\nOver the past few days, I have heard on BLOOMBERG and CNBC and read quite a few articles where the chatter relating to recession has become almost tantamount to a fever.\r\n\r\nIs it worse than 2007?\r\n\r\nI am not sure. What I do know is that with GDP levels at 1.0%-2.5% dotted around the globe, to slip into a negative is much easier than if inflation was good at 2%, which seems to be every central banks objective. Therefore, yes; recession is a fear.\r\n\r\nSince 2007-8 the scene of the financial crash, global debt levels have once again increased. In a recession, the chance of these debts being paid or even managed in many instances would be, in my opinion quite difficult, as asset prices would nose dive rendering servicing of debt practically impossible for most.\r\n\r\nIn my blogs I often use the phrase “Burying one’s head in the sand like an ostrich”.\r\n\r\nI do not want to be judged as a doom and gloom merchant, but I do worry that in todays world obsession with instant gratification and at times fear of reality if we have the balls to actually look at what we have regarding global debts.\r\n\r\nAccounting for the fear of recession can we look objectively at what there is vis-à-vis large institutional debt and attack it based on an orderly fashion or do we once again go into crash mode with the “Too big to fail” Lehman Brothers and a potential equivalent of an AIG bailout on the cards?\r\n\r\nMy fear is that to address these issues is way beyond the current global backdrop. It is a “dog eat dog” environment especially with currencies and the fight for growth and inflation. Politically we do have leaders capable of managing this potential.\r\n\r\nEuropean banks, especially German are under real pressure and at least $1 trillion of debts (non-performing loans), have been admitted to and these are mostly associated with emerging markets. This is what we know, and as we also know from the EUROZONE there is bound to be much more under the counter.\r\n\r\nThere are massive social issues on the horizon should “bail-ins”, which is now the Eurozone bailout approach, be required for failing banks as off the street investors as well as large fund investors may have to cover debts from their deposits. If this were to happen we would have utter chaos and people would take to the streets. In my opinion, in this event, the 2007 crash would be viewed in history as minor news in comparison to what could be on the cards in the near future.\r\n\r\nBear in mind the ECB has conducted numerous bank stress tests over the past few years since the Financial crash of 2007-8. These tests were designed to show and alleviate concerns that the European banks could survive another crash. Right now, I am reading several theories that many banks are still under-capitalized and would simply fail under another crisis.<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nLet me re-iterate in this event, in my opinion, we would have panic, fear, chaos, and runs on banks and violence on the streets.\r\n\r\nWhat starts all of this?\r\n\r\nChina?\r\n\r\nIt really is hard to say. The PBOC / Chinese government want to devalue the Yuan to compete in the currency wars.\r\n\r\nI have debated the longer-term effects of QE (Quantitative Easing) over the past year or so in the blog and decided that ultimately its effects are to bring spending forward but the future catches up with you. The Chinese government will be looking at all options should they want to enter currency wars with more tools over and above currency devaluation.\r\n\r\nI think that since 2007 this has been brewing, certainly central banks have maybe not fully understood the effects of falling commodity and finished goods pricing. It was seen initially as a good thing as it meant that purchasing of goods could still carry on as the west exited the 2007-8 period.\r\n\r\nLooking back flooding of the markets with cheaper options, only fueled DEFLATION. The fact that cheaper Chinese goods flooded markets hit domestic production and domestic labour rates and employment. At the same time the central bank support of QE masks the under-belly of what was happening.\r\n\r\nNow, we have the FED trying to establish normality after a period of extensive QE and market accommodation. As we have seen this move to ‘normalization” is very difficult and challenging.\r\n\r\nEvery piece of bad economic U.S. economic data is viewed as a potential for a FED reversal, it is very challenging, very volatile and we have huge market uncertainty across all financial markets.\r\n\r\nEuropean banks were down 7% last week and I think it was a sector when we have had 7 days in a row of declines. Greece is back in recession, more stimulus is called for, and despite all of the EUR negative news the EUR/USD is now up for two weeks in a row.\r\n\r\nUncertainty, insanity, divergence, lack of correlations call it what you want, it is hard to trade on fundamentals alone at the moment and at times the technicals do not line up.\r\n\r\nI have talked a lot about DEFLATION in the past two years. Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but I wonder if the central banks had let DEFLATION flow through the markets would we be in a better global position now?\r\n\r\nAm I being unfair, I know that central banks do not know how to fight / eradicate DEFLATION. Liquidity yes, that is a prime function of a central bank, they can all improve liquidity but is that about all? Am I being unfair?\r\n\r\nAt the end of the day the FED is at the forefront, will they stoke the fire to create insolvencies around the world?\r\n\r\nJanet Yellen is caught between a “rock and a hard place”, they are in the crossfires now for trying to normalize. If they remained accommodative the debt increases on all the free money.\r\n\r\nFrom a Forex traders perspective what does all this mean?\r\n\r\nThe USD will be front and centre in my opinion. So much emerging markets debt is linked to the USD and commodities are also tied to the greenback.\r\n\r\nIf I recall 2007-8, it was the commodity currencies that were the easier trades. This time around with oil circa $30 a barrel and full scale currency wars in operation plus a China slowdown… carnage.\r\n\r\nIt would make the drama of the SNB peg removal seem a mere tranche of volatility over a day or to. Brokers would go under, rate spreads virtually impossible to trade and volatility so great you would have to be sidelined to preserve capital.\r\n\r\nEquities, bonds, options, futures or Forex would be driven by news events. It would not be pretty, it would be carnage and moves would be swift, violent and at times without foundation of facts a complete gamble would ensue.\r\n\r\nI have never seen an orderly approach to debt management, as denial is always the predecessor to the facts. In my mind it can only be dis-orderly.\r\n\r\nI hope that this never happens but it is a real risk and not a fairytale or script for Steven Speilberg or the like to mull over. Speilberg might after the event should it happen!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) EXCLUSIVE CONTENT:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(This area contains exclusive content for PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) subscribers)\r\n\r\n<strong>4.1: THE PREMIUM SERVICE – TRADING REVIEW: </strong>\r\n\r\n(This section can cover a multitude of points / facts etc. Basically it’s a 360-degree review, which I think should interest subscribers):\r\n\r\nDuring the past week, a 200 negative pip position has reversed to positive with more than 400 pips banked.\r\n\r\nIt has been a roller coaster ride. I missed all the JPY trades; you have no idea how annoyed I was at this. I think it was Wednesday lunchtime and the USD/JPY had pulled back to 115.10, my finger was ready at 115.25. It never got there and by the close that day it was border 113.00, it then fell below 110.00. Frustrating and annoying, I know that it seems that I am too cautious, but over the years I have learned the hard way that being cautious wins out in the longer term.\r\n\r\nYou guys can be reckless with your own accounts, if you wish, but use the PREMIUM SERVICE trade set up suggestions to give you a backbone of around 10,000 pips a year. My goal is to provide a consistency of approach to the best of my ability.\r\n\r\nMy initial target is 1,000 pips a month, be a “Steady Eddy” for 10 months a year. I hope that this approach comes across, as we are moving forward.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>4.2: TRADE STYLE DEFINITIONS:</strong>\r\n\r\n<u>4.2.1: RADAR TRADES:\r\n\r\n</u>These are pre-meditated entry trades set from either Fibonacci levels, pivot points or previous support and resistance based off a combination of horizontal or trend line support or resistance.\r\nThe goal is always if possible to swing trade these trades by establishing a position that if market conditions apply allow the trade to gather traction and develop into a longer-term position trade.\r\n\r\n<u>4.2.2: FLASH TRADES:\r\n\r\n</u>Mainly simply, opportunist trades in LIVE market conditions. These trades are either based off a pullback strategy, a GIMME10 strategy, or off momentum in a trading pair at the time of entry.\r\nThe goal is to either take 10-30 pips or see a sufficient move to place a protective stop in place to see if a swing trade develops.\r\nSome FLASH TRADES may form part of an overall trading plan with a given currency pair, but the entry could not be made via a LIMIT ORDER.\r\n\r\nIn addition in 2016, some FLASH TRADES can be of a longer duration, with very specific goals.\r\n\r\n<u>4.2.3: FUNDAMENTAL TRADES:\r\n\r\n</u>These will be trades based off my TRADING PLAN goals for trades in line with my longer-term market views.\r\nTrades in this area will use in addition Fibonacci levels, Pivot points, trend lines and prior support and resistance levels, weekly and monthly ATR’s (Average True Ranges) when setting Stop Loss levels.\r\nThese trades are hopefully of a longer-term nature. They will be initially “single-lot” sized trades due to the wider stop placements that will be applied.\r\n\r\n<u>4.2.4: PART-TIME TRADER TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\nThese trade set-ups are intended to have a longer-term trading perspective. They are not only targeted at traders who consider they are part-time Forex traders; obviously, all traders can of course take advantage. (My definition of a part-time trader is one who is only able to look at their computer screens, or, mobile devices to check trades two or three times a day).\r\n\r\nA key feature of these set-ups is that they have much wider than normal stops to allow for market swings and volatility. The trades therefore have a smaller position size to allow for the swings in volatility, but multiple trades in the same currency pair are added when the core trade has gained traction in the desired direction.\r\n\r\nMy goal is to have multiple trades open/live at any one time and maybe 2/3 open/live trades with the same currency pair. I will of course suggest to take some profits along the way, but hopefully at the same time letting trades run as far as possible.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>4.3: THE PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE SPREADSHEETS (INCLUDING LIVE &amp; LIMIT ORDER TRADES):</strong>\r\n\r\nFull and complete details surrounding these trades can be found inside the PREMIUM SERVICE on my website. These can be found on the spreadsheets on the website.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>4.4: REVIEW OF OPEN LIMIT ORDER TRADES NOT YET TRIGGERED:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.1: RADAR LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n\r\n</u>There are no pending RADAR TRADE limit orders at the moment.\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.2: FUNDAMENTAL LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n</u>\r\n\r\nFUN256 – EUR/GBP: This trade is still valid as it is this pair’s resistance level, where I believe the pair will turn lower.\r\n\r\nFUN273 – EUR/USD: I have this trade just below the recent highs of 1.1473. I am not certain that this trade will trigger. We have Mario Draghi speaking Monday and the big EUROZONE growth revisions are on March 10<sup>th</sup>. I was hoping for a spike prior to this announcement. Fundamentally nothing has changed but in addition, there is nothing much that has excited me about trading this pair of late. It has been very much range bound.\r\n\r\nFUN274 – USD/CHF: Opposite to the EUR/USD. Longer-term I am still bullish this pair but if the EUR/USD spikes, this pair will fall and the lower the price the better the $$$ opportunity.\r\n\r\nFUN276 – GBP/NZD: The third trade in the long trade series.\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.3: PART-TIME TRADER LIMIT ORDER TRADES: </u>\r\n\r\nPART041 – USD/CHF: Opposite to the EUR/USD. Longer-term I am still bullish this pair but if the EUR/USD spikes, this pair will fall and the lower the price the better the $$$ opportunity.\r\n\r\nPART042 – EUR/USD: I have this trade just below the recent highs of 1.1473. I am not certain that this trade will trigger. We have Mario Draghi speaking Monday and the big EUROZONE growth revisions are on March 10<sup>th</sup>. I was hoping for a spike prior to this announcement. Fundamentally nothing has changed but in addition, there is nothing much that has excited me about trading this pair of late. It has been very much range bound.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n	<li><strong> COMING UP THIS WEEK:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5.1: THIS WEEK’S FOREX NEWS THAT INTERESTS ME:</u>\r\n\r\n(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market other than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to <a href=\"http://www.forexfactory.com\">www.forexfactory.com</a> and <a href=\"http://www.tradingeconomics.com\">www.tradingeconomics.com</a> for a more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).\r\nSUNDAY: CNY – Trade Balance.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: EUR – Draghi (ECB) speaks.\r\nMONDAY: NZD – Retail Sales and Inflation Expectations.\r\nMONDAY: AUD – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: NZD – GDT Dairy Auctions.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: GBP – Unemployment Claims.\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – FOMC Meeting Minutes.\r\nWEDNESDAY: NZD – PPi\r\nWEDNESDAY: AUD – Employment Data.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: USD – Core and Retail Sales.\r\nFRIDAY: CAD – Core and Retail Sales.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>5.1: THE USD MAJORS SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS: </u>\r\n\r\n(In this section I have as usual kept my charts as minimalist as possible. With regards to charting in my opinion less is more!! I hope that they are clear. All readers regardless of level of experience should be able to follow my thoughts from my comments to the levels on the charts with ease)\r\n\r\nMy comments are contained on the charts.\r\n\r\nEUR/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.1250\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/eurusd-d-13022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7296\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7296\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/EURUSD-D-13022016-1024x505.png\" alt=\"EURUSD D 13022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"505\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.4493\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/gbpusd-d-13022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7297\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7297\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/GBPUSD-D-13022016-1024x505.png\" alt=\"GBPUSD D 13022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"505\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.7103\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/audusd-d-13022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7295\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7295\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/AUDUSD-D-13022016-1024x505.png\" alt=\"AUDUSD D 13022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"505\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.6619\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/nzdusd-d-13022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7298\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7298\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/NZDUSD-D-13022016-1024x505.png\" alt=\"NZDUSD D 13022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"505\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.3856\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/usdcad-d-130202016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7299\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7299\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCAD-D-130202016-1024x505.png\" alt=\"USDCAD D 130202016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"505\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF - Weekly Closing Price: 0.9769\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/usdchf-d-13022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7300\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7300\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCHF-D-13022016-1024x505.png\" alt=\"USDCHF D 13022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"505\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY - Weekly Closing Price: 113.24\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/usdjpy-d-13022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7301\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7301\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDJPY-D-13022016-1024x505.png\" alt=\"USDJPY D 13022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"505\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.3: CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nVery simple this week; Monday is a U.S. holiday. I would advise being light with trading until Tuesday. Markets will be thin, volume light and probably highly speculative. Why put yourself through that?\r\n\r\nThere is a lot of high beta economic data this week. Trade on reality and not on speculation.\r\n\r\nThere will be reams of speculation this weekend, remember that\'s all it is speculation.\r\n\r\nBe savvy…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nTake care,\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nDATE: 13<sup>th</sup> February 2016\r\nBLOG REFERENCE: #89 PREMIUM SERVICE\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','ARE WE HEADING INTO A STORM OF DEBT DEFAULTS?','','inherit','closed','closed','','7302-revision-v1','','','2016-02-13 13:16:11','2016-02-13 18:16:11','',7302,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/7302-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(7304,1,'2016-02-13 13:17:05','2016-02-13 18:17:05','<strong><u>THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU</u></strong>\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li><strong> INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nI hope that after the JPY implosion over the past week you either made a ton of pips / $$$ or alternatively you may have been like me, not losing, not making pips and you missed the whole JPY pairs move because your trade limit order entries did not trigger. As long as you did not lose $$$, you live to fight another day!\r\n\r\nThe great thing about trading Forex – there is a market every day and with the market comes a different range of opportunities. It’s all about patience to accept the high probability trades and make your move. Patience is the key along with RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT for trading longevity. Trading Forex is not rocket science, fundamentally it is quite boring repetition, but with fun when you see your broker account increase.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nJust to remind you; you could be the next winner of a free PREMIUM SERVICE (SILVER) subscription; if you subscribe to receive this free blog via my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nYou are automatically entered into a free monthly draw, once you’ve subscribed. Each month during 2016 one lucky blog subscriber will receive a free subscription to the PREMIUM SERVICE (SILVER).\r\n\r\nYou could be the next lucky winner. The next draw is at the end of this month.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>2.1: WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber, fee based trade set-up option for Forex traders regardless of experience or background. I provide traders suggested trades, and some market commentary related to open trades or factors within the overall market that have my interest.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and the various trade styles plus how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nAdditional information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE you will require a PayPal account.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2: PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE THIS MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>NET PIPS THIS MONTH SO FAR:            +416</strong>\r\n<strong>NET PIPS THIS YEAR SO FAR:                +1,815</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>NET PIPS 2015        10,686</strong>\r\n<strong>NET PIPS 2014        11,209</strong></p>\r\n(I trade basically for 10 months a year. I do not trade middle July through early September or middle December through early January).\r\n\r\nIf you want more data or detail about the performance and the tabs on my website landing page do not answer your questions, contact me directly and I will supply the trading data you require. There are NO secrets. There are many, many spreadsheets detailing performance trade by trade and by trade and by trading style, way too many to place in this blog. If you are interested in the PREMIUM SERVICE and want more information, all you have to do is ask.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.3: PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBER PROMOTION:</u>\r\n\r\nPlease note that until the end of February 2016, I have a very special subscription offer in place. You can check this out on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by clicking on the FX PROMOTIONS tab at the top of the page.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>3.1: LAST WEEK’S NEWS – MY THOUGHTS:</strong>\r\n\r\nIf you trade any of the financial markets, you would have witnessed carnage during the past week unless you had your head buried in a bucket of sand like Stephen Poloz, BOC Bank Governor.\r\n\r\nThe unwinding of the JPY currency, the sell off of the Nikkei, banks stocks around the world getting crushed, oil selling off then bouncing then selling off again, the fear of local then a world recession all of these created a FEAR and GREED run.\r\n\r\nWith all the above said, I have yet to mention the little lady with a big stick (Janet Yellen, Fed Chair) who sat through her bi-annual testimony to a select committee on the hill, what I can only describe as a circus. I am really impressed with the way she stands her ground in front of these poorly educated up-starts who know very little other than to point blame and shuffle papers. No wonder Donald Trump has cross party support with the Washington protest vote. In the first hour last Wednesday, I counted 40% questions and 60% statements; this is an improvement from recent Q&amp;A. I recall 75% statements once to Ben Bernake, I know that lots of people, maybe, the vast majority couldn\'t care less, but for me politicians should be setting an example and not performing in front of the media like a collection numpties, which is what we have around the U.S. Eurozone and UK for example. Is it any wonder mainstream politics all over is suffering protest votes to fringe parties or candidates.\r\n\r\nAway from politics…\r\n\r\nFEAR rules right now and it’s dangerous.\r\n\r\nThe ripple effects of China and Oil were enough to be living with a week or so ago, now we have my list from above (JPY, Nikkei, Bank Stocks, Recession fears) to add to this.\r\n\r\nBe careful, Monday is Presidents Day in the U.S. and markets are closed. Volumes will be lower and coming off a weekend with so much geopolitical news in the air, China coming back on line after New Year holidays… it could be messy at best, choppy guaranteed and decimation at worst.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>3.2: WHAT’S ON MY MIND:</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>ARE WE HEADING INTO A STORM OF DEBT DEFAULTS?</strong></p>\r\nI was prompted to write this article due to the fact that over the past several weeks the number of pieces written by economists at the behest of areas of the media has been increasing. Delving further into what I originally perceived to be nothing other than scaremongering, it got my brain thinking maybe there is some merit in exploration. I am more of a cynic than a doom and gloom person, having said that I hope this makes your grey matter move the way it did mine.\r\n\r\nThis piece draws together not just my original thoughts but also some deeper economic theories from the research, which I hope demonstrates the potential for the storm / wave of debt default in a format that is easy to follow.\r\n\r\nI am a Forex trader, not an economist. I studied Government and Politics and British Constitution back in the day. However, it does not take a brain surgeon or rocket scientist to observe the fact that financial systems appear dangerously unstable.\r\n\r\nThe immediate effect of this is obviously a hit and test of political stability, but in my opinion confidence, if you like social stability will also suffer as FEAR grips.\r\n\r\nOver the past few days, I have heard on BLOOMBERG and CNBC and read quite a few articles where the chatter relating to recession has become almost tantamount to a fever.\r\n\r\nIs it worse than 2007?\r\n\r\nI am not sure. What I do know is that with GDP levels at 1.0%-2.5% dotted around the globe, to slip into a negative is much easier than if inflation was good at 2%, which seems to be every central banks objective. Therefore, yes; recession is a fear.\r\n\r\nSince 2007-8 the scene of the financial crash, global debt levels have once again increased. In a recession, the chance of these debts being paid or even managed in many instances would be, in my opinion quite difficult, as asset prices would nose dive rendering servicing of debt practically impossible for most.\r\n\r\nIn my blogs I often use the phrase “Burying one’s head in the sand like an ostrich”.\r\n\r\nI do not want to be judged as a doom and gloom merchant, but I do worry that in todays world obsession with instant gratification and at times fear of reality if we have the balls to actually look at what we have regarding global debts.\r\n\r\nAccounting for the fear of recession can we look objectively at what there is vis-à-vis large institutional debt and attack it based on an orderly fashion or do we once again go into crash mode with the “Too big to fail” Lehman Brothers and a potential equivalent of an AIG bailout on the cards?\r\n\r\nMy fear is that to address these issues is way beyond the current global backdrop. It is a “dog eat dog” environment especially with currencies and the fight for growth and inflation. Politically we do have leaders capable of managing this potential.\r\n\r\nEuropean banks, especially German are under real pressure and at least $1 trillion of debts (non-performing loans), have been admitted to and these are mostly associated with emerging markets. This is what we know, and as we also know from the EUROZONE there is bound to be much more under the counter.\r\n\r\nThere are massive social issues on the horizon should “bail-ins”, which is now the Eurozone bailout approach, be required for failing banks as off the street investors as well as large fund investors may have to cover debts from their deposits. If this were to happen we would have utter chaos and people would take to the streets. In my opinion, in this event, the 2007 crash would be viewed in history as minor news in comparison to what could be on the cards in the near future.\r\n\r\nBear in mind the ECB has conducted numerous bank stress tests over the past few years since the Financial crash of 2007-8. These tests were designed to show and alleviate concerns that the European banks could survive another crash. Right now, I am reading several theories that many banks are still under-capitalized and would simply fail under another crisis.<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nLet me re-iterate in this event, in my opinion, we would have panic, fear, chaos, and runs on banks and violence on the streets.\r\n\r\nWhat starts all of this?\r\n\r\nChina?\r\n\r\nIt really is hard to say. The PBOC / Chinese government want to devalue the Yuan to compete in the currency wars.\r\n\r\nI have debated the longer-term effects of QE (Quantitative Easing) over the past year or so in the blog and decided that ultimately its effects are to bring spending forward but the future catches up with you. The Chinese government will be looking at all options should they want to enter currency wars with more tools over and above currency devaluation.\r\n\r\nI think that since 2007 this has been brewing, certainly central banks have maybe not fully understood the effects of falling commodity and finished goods pricing. It was seen initially as a good thing as it meant that purchasing of goods could still carry on as the west exited the 2007-8 period.\r\n\r\nLooking back flooding of the markets with cheaper options, only fueled DEFLATION. The fact that cheaper Chinese goods flooded markets hit domestic production and domestic labour rates and employment. At the same time the central bank support of QE masks the under-belly of what was happening.\r\n\r\nNow, we have the FED trying to establish normality after a period of extensive QE and market accommodation. As we have seen this move to ‘normalization” is very difficult and challenging.\r\n\r\nEvery piece of bad economic U.S. economic data is viewed as a potential for a FED reversal, it is very challenging, very volatile and we have huge market uncertainty across all financial markets.\r\n\r\nEuropean banks were down 7% last week and I think it was a sector when we have had 7 days in a row of declines. Greece is back in recession, more stimulus is called for, and despite all of the EUR negative news the EUR/USD is now up for two weeks in a row.\r\n\r\nUncertainty, insanity, divergence, lack of correlations call it what you want, it is hard to trade on fundamentals alone at the moment and at times the technicals do not line up.\r\n\r\nI have talked a lot about DEFLATION in the past two years. Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but I wonder if the central banks had let DEFLATION flow through the markets would we be in a better global position now?\r\n\r\nAm I being unfair, I know that central banks do not know how to fight / eradicate DEFLATION. Liquidity yes, that is a prime function of a central bank, they can all improve liquidity but is that about all? Am I being unfair?\r\n\r\nAt the end of the day the FED is at the forefront, will they stoke the fire to create insolvencies around the world?\r\n\r\nJanet Yellen is caught between a “rock and a hard place”, they are in the crossfires now for trying to normalize. If they remained accommodative the debt increases on all the free money.\r\n\r\nFrom a Forex traders perspective what does all this mean?\r\n\r\nThe USD will be front and centre in my opinion. So much emerging markets debt is linked to the USD and commodities are also tied to the greenback.\r\n\r\nIf I recall 2007-8, it was the commodity currencies that were the easier trades. This time around with oil circa $30 a barrel and full scale currency wars in operation plus a China slowdown… carnage.\r\n\r\nIt would make the drama of the SNB peg removal seem a mere tranche of volatility over a day or to. Brokers would go under, rate spreads virtually impossible to trade and volatility so great you would have to be sidelined to preserve capital.\r\n\r\nEquities, bonds, options, futures or Forex would be driven by news events. It would not be pretty, it would be carnage and moves would be swift, violent and at times without foundation of facts a complete gamble would ensue.\r\n\r\nI have never seen an orderly approach to debt management, as denial is always the predecessor to the facts. In my mind it can only be dis-orderly.\r\n\r\nI hope that this never happens but it is a real risk and not a fairytale or script for Steven Speilberg or the like to mull over. Speilberg might after the event should it happen!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) EXCLUSIVE CONTENT:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(This area contains exclusive content for PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) subscribers)\r\n\r\n<strong>4.1: THE PREMIUM SERVICE – TRADING REVIEW: </strong>\r\n\r\n(This section can cover a multitude of points / facts etc. Basically it’s a 360-degree review, which I think should interest subscribers):\r\n\r\nDuring the past week, a 200 negative pip position has reversed to positive with more than 400 pips banked.\r\n\r\nIt has been a roller coaster ride. I missed all the JPY trades; you have no idea how annoyed I was at this. I think it was Wednesday lunchtime and the USD/JPY had pulled back to 115.10, my finger was ready at 115.25. It never got there and by the close that day it was border 113.00, it then fell below 110.00. Frustrating and annoying, I know that it seems that I am too cautious, but over the years I have learned the hard way that being cautious wins out in the longer term.\r\n\r\nYou guys can be reckless with your own accounts, if you wish, but use the PREMIUM SERVICE trade set up suggestions to give you a backbone of around 10,000 pips a year. My goal is to provide a consistency of approach to the best of my ability.\r\n\r\nMy initial target is 1,000 pips a month, be a “Steady Eddy” for 10 months a year. I hope that this approach comes across, as we are moving forward.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>4.2: TRADE STYLE DEFINITIONS:</strong>\r\n\r\n<u>4.2.1: RADAR TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\nThese are pre-meditated entry trades set from either Fibonacci levels, pivot points or previous support and resistance based off a combination of horizontal or trend line support or resistance.\r\nThe goal is always if possible to swing trade these trades by establishing a position that if market conditions apply allow the trade to gather traction and develop into a longer-term position trade.\r\n\r\n<u>4.2.2: FLASH TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\nMainly simply, opportunist trades in LIVE market conditions. These trades are either based off a pullback strategy, a GIMME10 strategy, or off momentum in a trading pair at the time of entry.\r\nThe goal is to either take 10-30 pips or see a sufficient move to place a protective stop in place to see if a swing trade develops.\r\nSome FLASH TRADES may form part of an overall trading plan with a given currency pair, but the entry could not be made via a LIMIT ORDER.\r\n\r\nIn addition in 2016, some FLASH TRADES can be of a longer duration, with very specific goals.\r\n\r\n<u>4.2.3: FUNDAMENTAL TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\nThese will be trades based off my TRADING PLAN goals for trades in line with my longer-term market views.\r\nTrades in this area will use in addition Fibonacci levels, Pivot points, trend lines and prior support and resistance levels, weekly and monthly ATR’s (Average True Ranges) when setting Stop Loss levels.\r\nThese trades are hopefully of a longer-term nature. They will be initially “single-lot” sized trades due to the wider stop placements that will be applied.\r\n\r\n<u>4.2.4: PART-TIME TRADER TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\nThese trade set-ups are intended to have a longer-term trading perspective. They are not only targeted at traders who consider they are part-time Forex traders; obviously, all traders can of course take advantage. (My definition of a part-time trader is one who is only able to look at their computer screens, or, mobile devices to check trades two or three times a day).\r\n\r\nA key feature of these set-ups is that they have much wider than normal stops to allow for market swings and volatility. The trades therefore have a smaller position size to allow for the swings in volatility, but multiple trades in the same currency pair are added when the core trade has gained traction in the desired direction.\r\n\r\nMy goal is to have multiple trades open/live at any one time and maybe 2/3 open/live trades with the same currency pair. I will of course suggest to take some profits along the way, but hopefully at the same time letting trades run as far as possible.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>4.3: THE PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE SPREADSHEETS (INCLUDING LIVE &amp; LIMIT ORDER TRADES):</strong>\r\n\r\nFull and complete details surrounding these trades can be found inside the PREMIUM SERVICE on my website. These can be found on the spreadsheets on the website.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>4.4: REVIEW OF OPEN LIMIT ORDER TRADES NOT YET TRIGGERED:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.1: RADAR LIMIT ORDER TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\nThere are no pending RADAR TRADE limit orders at the moment.\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.2: FUNDAMENTAL LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n</u>\r\n\r\nFUN256 – EUR/GBP: This trade is still valid as it is this pair’s resistance level, where I believe the pair will turn lower.\r\n\r\nFUN273 – EUR/USD: I have this trade just below the recent highs of 1.1473. I am not certain that this trade will trigger. We have Mario Draghi speaking Monday and the big EUROZONE growth revisions are on March 10<sup>th</sup>. I was hoping for a spike prior to this announcement. Fundamentally nothing has changed but in addition, there is nothing much that has excited me about trading this pair of late. It has been very much range bound.\r\n\r\nFUN274 – USD/CHF: Opposite to the EUR/USD. Longer-term I am still bullish this pair but if the EUR/USD spikes, this pair will fall and the lower the price the better the $$$ opportunity.\r\n\r\nFUN276 – GBP/NZD: The third trade in the long trade series.\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.3: PART-TIME TRADER LIMIT ORDER TRADES: </u>\r\n\r\nPART041 – USD/CHF: Opposite to the EUR/USD. Longer-term I am still bullish this pair but if the EUR/USD spikes, this pair will fall and the lower the price the better the $$$ opportunity.\r\n\r\nPART042 – EUR/USD: I have this trade just below the recent highs of 1.1473. I am not certain that this trade will trigger. We have Mario Draghi speaking Monday and the big EUROZONE growth revisions are on March 10<sup>th</sup>. I was hoping for a spike prior to this announcement. Fundamentally nothing has changed but in addition, there is nothing much that has excited me about trading this pair of late. It has been very much range bound.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n	<li><strong> COMING UP THIS WEEK:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5.1: THIS WEEK’S FOREX NEWS THAT INTERESTS ME:</u>\r\n\r\n(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market other than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to <a href=\"http://www.forexfactory.com\">www.forexfactory.com</a> and <a href=\"http://www.tradingeconomics.com\">www.tradingeconomics.com</a> for a more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nSUNDAY: CNY – Trade Balance.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: EUR – Draghi (ECB) speaks.\r\nMONDAY: NZD – Retail Sales and Inflation Expectations.\r\nMONDAY: AUD – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: NZD – GDT Dairy Auctions.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: GBP – Unemployment Claims.\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – FOMC Meeting Minutes.\r\nWEDNESDAY: NZD – PPi\r\nWEDNESDAY: AUD – Employment Data.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: USD – Core and Retail Sales.\r\nFRIDAY: CAD – Core and Retail Sales.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>5.1: THE USD MAJORS SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS: </u>\r\n\r\n(In this section I have as usual kept my charts as minimalist as possible. With regards to charting in my opinion less is more!! I hope that they are clear. All readers regardless of level of experience should be able to follow my thoughts from my comments to the levels on the charts with ease)\r\n\r\nMy comments are contained on the charts.\r\n\r\nEUR/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.1250\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/eurusd-d-13022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7296\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7296\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/EURUSD-D-13022016-1024x505.png\" alt=\"EURUSD D 13022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"505\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.4493\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/gbpusd-d-13022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7297\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7297\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/GBPUSD-D-13022016-1024x505.png\" alt=\"GBPUSD D 13022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"505\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.7103\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/audusd-d-13022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7295\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7295\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/AUDUSD-D-13022016-1024x505.png\" alt=\"AUDUSD D 13022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"505\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.6619\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/nzdusd-d-13022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7298\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7298\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/NZDUSD-D-13022016-1024x505.png\" alt=\"NZDUSD D 13022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"505\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.3856\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/usdcad-d-130202016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7299\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7299\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCAD-D-130202016-1024x505.png\" alt=\"USDCAD D 130202016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"505\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF - Weekly Closing Price: 0.9769\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/usdchf-d-13022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7300\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7300\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCHF-D-13022016-1024x505.png\" alt=\"USDCHF D 13022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"505\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY - Weekly Closing Price: 113.24\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/usdjpy-d-13022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7301\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7301\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDJPY-D-13022016-1024x505.png\" alt=\"USDJPY D 13022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"505\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.3: CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nVery simple this week; Monday is a U.S. holiday. I would advise being light with trading until Tuesday. Markets will be thin, volume light and probably highly speculative. Why put yourself through that?\r\n\r\nThere is a lot of high beta economic data this week. Trade on reality and not on speculation.\r\n\r\nThere will be reams of speculation this weekend, remember that\'s all it is speculation.\r\n\r\nBe savvy…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nTake care,\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nDATE: 13<sup>th</sup> February 2016\r\nBLOG REFERENCE: #89 PREMIUM SERVICE\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','ARE WE HEADING INTO A STORM OF DEBT DEFAULTS?','','inherit','closed','closed','','7302-revision-v1','','','2016-02-13 13:17:05','2016-02-13 18:17:05','',7302,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/7302-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(7305,1,'2016-02-13 13:32:56','2016-02-13 18:32:56','<strong><u>THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU</u></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li><strong> INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nI hope that after the JPY implosion over the past week you either made a ton of pips / $$$ or alternatively you may have been like me, not losing, not making pips and you missed the whole JPY pairs move because your trade limit order entries did not trigger. As long as you did not lose $$$, you live to fight another day!\r\n\r\nThe great thing about trading Forex – there is a market every day and with the market comes a different range of opportunities. It’s all about patience to accept the high probability trades and make your move. Patience is the key along with RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT for trading longevity. Trading Forex is not rocket science, fundamentally it is quite boring repetition, but with fun when you see your broker account increase.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nJust to remind you; you could be the next winner of a free PREMIUM SERVICE (SILVER) subscription; if you subscribe to receive this free blog via my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nYou are automatically entered into a free monthly draw, once you’ve subscribed. Each month during 2016 one lucky blog subscriber will receive a free subscription to the PREMIUM SERVICE (SILVER).\r\n\r\nYou could be the next lucky winner. The next draw is at the end of this month.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>2.1: WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber, fee based trade set-up option for Forex traders regardless of experience or background. I provide traders suggested trades, and some market commentary related to open trades or factors within the overall market that have my interest.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and the various trade styles plus how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nAdditional information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE you will require a PayPal account.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2: PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE THIS MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>NET PIPS THIS MONTH SO FAR:            +416</strong>\r\n<strong>NET PIPS THIS YEAR SO FAR:                +1,815</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>NET PIPS 2015        10,686</strong>\r\n<strong>NET PIPS 2014        11,209</strong></p>\r\n(I trade basically for 10 months a year. I do not trade middle July through early September or middle December through early January).\r\n\r\nIf you want more data or detail about the performance and the tabs on my website landing page do not answer your questions, contact me directly and I will supply the trading data you require. There are NO secrets. There are many, many spreadsheets detailing performance trade by trade and by trade and by trading style, way too many to place in this blog. If you are interested in the PREMIUM SERVICE and want more information, all you have to do is ask.\r\n\r\n<u>2.3: PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBER PROMOTION:</u>\r\n\r\nPlease note that until the end of February 2016, I have a very special subscription offer in place. You can check this out on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by clicking on the FX PROMOTIONS tab at the top of the page.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>3.1: LAST WEEK’S NEWS – MY THOUGHTS:</strong>\r\n\r\nIf you trade any of the financial markets, you would have witnessed carnage during the past week unless you had your head buried in a bucket of sand like Stephen Poloz, BOC Bank Governor.\r\n\r\nThe unwinding of the JPY currency, the sell off of the Nikkei, banks stocks around the world getting crushed, oil selling off then bouncing then selling off again, the fear of local then a world recession all of these created a FEAR and GREED run.\r\n\r\nWith all the above said, I have yet to mention the little lady with a big stick (Janet Yellen, Fed Chair) who sat through her bi-annual testimony to a select committee on the hill, what I can only describe as a circus. I am really impressed with the way she stands her ground in front of these poorly educated up-starts who know very little other than to point blame and shuffle papers. No wonder Donald Trump has cross party support with the Washington protest vote. In the first hour last Wednesday, I counted 40% questions and 60% statements; this is an improvement from recent Q&amp;A. I recall 75% statements once to Ben Bernake, I know that lots of people, maybe, the vast majority couldn\'t care less, but for me politicians should be setting an example and not performing in front of the media like a collection numpties, which is what we have around the U.S. Eurozone and UK for example. Is it any wonder mainstream politics all over is suffering protest votes to fringe parties or candidates.\r\n\r\nAway from politics…\r\n\r\nFEAR rules right now and it’s dangerous.\r\n\r\nThe ripple effects of China and Oil were enough to be living with a week or so ago, now we have my list from above (JPY, Nikkei, Bank Stocks, Recession fears) to add to this.\r\n\r\nBe careful, Monday is Presidents Day in the U.S. and markets are closed. Volumes will be lower and coming off a weekend with so much geopolitical news in the air, China coming back on line after New Year holidays… it could be messy at best, choppy guaranteed and decimation at worst.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>3.2: WHAT’S ON MY MIND:</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>ARE WE HEADING INTO A STORM OF DEBT DEFAULTS?</strong></p>\r\nI was prompted to write this article due to the fact that over the past several weeks the number of pieces written by economists at the behest of areas of the media has been increasing. Delving further into what I originally perceived to be nothing other than scaremongering, it got my brain thinking maybe there is some merit in exploration. I am more of a cynic than a doom and gloom person, having said that I hope this makes your grey matter move the way it did mine.\r\n\r\nThis piece draws together not just my original thoughts but also some deeper economic theories from the research, which I hope demonstrates the potential for the storm / wave of debt default in a format that is easy to follow.\r\n\r\nI am a Forex trader, not an economist. I studied Government and Politics and British Constitution back in the day. However, it does not take a brain surgeon or rocket scientist to observe the fact that financial systems appear dangerously unstable.\r\n\r\nThe immediate effect of this is obviously a hit and test of political stability, but in my opinion confidence, if you like social stability will also suffer as FEAR grips.\r\n\r\nOver the past few days, I have heard on BLOOMBERG and CNBC and read quite a few articles where the chatter relating to recession has become almost tantamount to a fever.\r\n\r\nIs it worse than 2007?\r\n\r\nI am not sure. What I do know is that with GDP levels at 1.0%-2.5% dotted around the globe, to slip into a negative is much easier than if inflation was good at 2%, which seems to be every central banks objective. Therefore, yes; recession is a fear.\r\n\r\nSince 2007-8 the scene of the financial crash, global debt levels have once again increased. In a recession, the chance of these debts being paid or even managed in many instances would be, in my opinion quite difficult, as asset prices would nose dive rendering servicing of debt practically impossible for most.\r\n\r\nIn my blogs I often use the phrase “Burying one’s head in the sand like an ostrich”.\r\n\r\nI do not want to be judged as a doom and gloom merchant, but I do worry that in todays world obsession with instant gratification and at times fear of reality if we have the balls to actually look at what we have regarding global debts.\r\n\r\nAccounting for the fear of recession can we look objectively at what there is vis-à-vis large institutional debt and attack it based on an orderly fashion or do we once again go into crash mode with the “Too big to fail” Lehman Brothers and a potential equivalent of an AIG bailout on the cards?\r\n\r\nMy fear is that to address these issues is way beyond the current global backdrop. It is a “dog eat dog” environment especially with currencies and the fight for growth and inflation. Politically we do have leaders capable of managing this potential.\r\n\r\nEuropean banks, especially German are under real pressure and at least $1 trillion of debts (non-performing loans), have been admitted to and these are mostly associated with emerging markets. This is what we know, and as we also know from the EUROZONE there is bound to be much more under the counter.\r\n\r\nThere are massive social issues on the horizon should “bail-ins”, which is now the Eurozone bailout approach, be required for failing banks as off the street investors as well as large fund investors may have to cover debts from their deposits. If this were to happen we would have utter chaos and people would take to the streets. In my opinion, in this event, the 2007 crash would be viewed in history as minor news in comparison to what could be on the cards in the near future.\r\n\r\nBear in mind the ECB has conducted numerous bank stress tests over the past few years since the Financial crash of 2007-8. These tests were designed to show and alleviate concerns that the European banks could survive another crash. Right now, I am reading several theories that many banks are still under-capitalized and would simply fail under another crisis.\r\n\r\nLet me re-iterate in this event, in my opinion, we would have panic, fear, chaos, and runs on banks and violence on the streets.\r\n\r\nWhat starts all of this?\r\n\r\nChina?\r\n\r\nIt really is hard to say. The PBOC / Chinese government want to devalue the Yuan to compete in the currency wars.\r\n\r\nI have debated the longer-term effects of QE (Quantitative Easing) over the past year or so in the blog and decided that ultimately its effects are to bring spending forward but the future catches up with you. The Chinese government will be looking at all options should they want to enter currency wars with more tools over and above currency devaluation.\r\n\r\nI think that since 2007 this has been brewing, certainly central banks have maybe not fully understood the effects of falling commodity and finished goods pricing. It was seen initially as a good thing as it meant that purchasing of goods could still carry on as the west exited the 2007-8 period.\r\n\r\nLooking back flooding of the markets with cheaper options, only fueled DEFLATION. The fact that cheaper Chinese goods flooded markets hit domestic production and domestic labour rates and employment. At the same time the central bank support of QE masks the under-belly of what was happening.\r\n\r\nNow, we have the FED trying to establish normality after a period of extensive QE and market accommodation. As we have seen this move to ‘normalization” is very difficult and challenging.\r\n\r\nEvery piece of bad economic U.S. economic data is viewed as a potential for a FED reversal, it is very challenging, very volatile and we have huge market uncertainty across all financial markets.\r\n\r\nEuropean banks were down 7% last week and I think it was a sector when we have had 7 days in a row of declines. Greece is back in recession, more stimulus is called for, and despite all of the EUR negative news the EUR/USD is now up for two weeks in a row.\r\n\r\nUncertainty, insanity, divergence, lack of correlations call it what you want, it is hard to trade on fundamentals alone at the moment and at times the technicals do not line up.\r\n\r\nI have talked a lot about DEFLATION in the past two years. Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but I wonder if the central banks had let DEFLATION flow through the markets would we be in a better global position now?\r\n\r\nAm I being unfair, I know that central banks do not know how to fight / eradicate DEFLATION. Liquidity yes, that is a prime function of a central bank, they can all improve liquidity but is that about all? Am I being unfair?\r\n\r\nAt the end of the day the FED is at the forefront, will they stoke the fire to create insolvencies around the world?\r\n\r\nJanet Yellen is caught between a “rock and a hard place”, they are in the crossfires now for trying to normalize. If they remained accommodative the debt increases on all the free money.\r\n\r\nFrom a Forex traders perspective what does all this mean?\r\n\r\nThe USD will be front and centre in my opinion. So much emerging markets debt is linked to the USD and commodities are also tied to the greenback.\r\n\r\nIf I recall 2007-8, it was the commodity currencies that were the easier trades. This time around with oil circa $30 a barrel and full scale currency wars in operation plus a China slowdown… carnage.\r\n\r\nIt would make the drama of the SNB peg removal seem a mere tranche of volatility over a day or to. Brokers would go under, rate spreads virtually impossible to trade and volatility so great you would have to be sidelined to preserve capital.\r\n\r\nEquities, bonds, options, futures or Forex would be driven by news events. It would not be pretty, it would be carnage and moves would be swift, violent and at times without foundation of facts a complete gamble would ensue.\r\n\r\nI have never seen an orderly approach to debt management, as denial is always the predecessor to the facts. In my mind it can only be dis-orderly.\r\n\r\nI hope that this never happens but it is a real risk and not a fairytale or script for Steven Speilberg or the like to mull over. Speilberg might after the event should it happen!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) EXCLUSIVE CONTENT:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(This area contains exclusive content for PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) subscribers)<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n	<li><strong> COMING UP THIS WEEK:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5.1: THIS WEEK’S FOREX NEWS THAT INTERESTS ME:</u>\r\n\r\n(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market other than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to <a href=\"http://www.forexfactory.com\">www.forexfactory.com</a> and <a href=\"http://www.tradingeconomics.com\">www.tradingeconomics.com</a> for a more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).\r\nSUNDAY: CNY – Trade Balance.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: EUR – Draghi (ECB) speaks.\r\nMONDAY: NZD – Retail Sales and Inflation Expectations.\r\nMONDAY: AUD – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: NZD – GDT Dairy Auctions.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: GBP – Unemployment Claims.\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – FOMC Meeting Minutes.\r\nWEDNESDAY: NZD – PPi\r\nWEDNESDAY: AUD – Employment Data.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: USD – Core and Retail Sales.\r\nFRIDAY: CAD – Core and Retail Sales.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>5.1: THE USD MAJORS SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS: </u>\r\n\r\n(In this section I have as usual kept my charts as minimalist as possible. With regards to charting in my opinion less is more!! I hope that they are clear. All readers regardless of level of experience should be able to follow my thoughts from my comments to the levels on the charts with ease)\r\n\r\nMy comments are contained on the charts.\r\n\r\nEUR/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.1250\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/are-we-heading-into-a-storm-of-debt-defaults/eurusd-d-13022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7296\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7296\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/EURUSD-D-13022016-1024x505.png\" alt=\"EURUSD D 13022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"505\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.4493\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/are-we-heading-into-a-storm-of-debt-defaults/gbpusd-d-13022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7297\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7297\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/GBPUSD-D-13022016-1024x505.png\" alt=\"GBPUSD D 13022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"505\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.7103\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/are-we-heading-into-a-storm-of-debt-defaults/audusd-d-13022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7295\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7295\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/AUDUSD-D-13022016-1024x505.png\" alt=\"AUDUSD D 13022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"505\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.6619\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/are-we-heading-into-a-storm-of-debt-defaults/nzdusd-d-13022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7298\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7298\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/NZDUSD-D-13022016-1024x505.png\" alt=\"NZDUSD D 13022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"505\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.3856\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/are-we-heading-into-a-storm-of-debt-defaults/usdcad-d-130202016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7299\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7299\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCAD-D-130202016-1024x505.png\" alt=\"USDCAD D 130202016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"505\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF - Weekly Closing Price: 0.9769\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/are-we-heading-into-a-storm-of-debt-defaults/usdchf-d-13022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7300\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7300\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCHF-D-13022016-1024x505.png\" alt=\"USDCHF D 13022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"505\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY - Weekly Closing Price: 113.24\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/are-we-heading-into-a-storm-of-debt-defaults/usdjpy-d-13022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7301\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7301\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDJPY-D-13022016-1024x505.png\" alt=\"USDJPY D 13022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"505\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3: CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nVery simple this week; Monday is a U.S. holiday. I would advise being light with trading until Tuesday. Markets will be thin, volume light and probably highly speculative. Why put yourself through that?\r\n\r\nThere is a lot of high beta economic data this week. Trade on reality and not on speculation.\r\n\r\nThere will be reams of speculation this weekend, remember that\'s all it is speculation.\r\n\r\nBe savvy…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nTake care,\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nDATE: 13<sup>th</sup> February 2016\r\nBLOG REFERENCE: #188 FREE NEWSLETTER\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','ARE WE HEADING INTO A STORM OF DEBT DEFAULTS?','','publish','open','closed','','are-we-heading-into-a-storm-of-debt-defaults','','','2016-02-13 13:32:56','2016-02-13 18:32:56','',0,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?p=7305',0,'post','',0),(7306,1,'2016-02-13 13:31:57','2016-02-13 18:31:57','<strong><u>THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU</u></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li><strong> INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nI hope that after the JPY implosion over the past week you either made a ton of pips / $$$ or alternatively you may have been like me, not losing, not making pips and you missed the whole JPY pairs move because your trade limit order entries did not trigger. As long as you did not lose $$$, you live to fight another day!\r\n\r\nThe great thing about trading Forex – there is a market every day and with the market comes a different range of opportunities. It’s all about patience to accept the high probability trades and make your move. Patience is the key along with RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT for trading longevity. Trading Forex is not rocket science, fundamentally it is quite boring repetition, but with fun when you see your broker account increase.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nJust to remind you; you could be the next winner of a free PREMIUM SERVICE (SILVER) subscription; if you subscribe to receive this free blog via my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nYou are automatically entered into a free monthly draw, once you’ve subscribed. Each month during 2016 one lucky blog subscriber will receive a free subscription to the PREMIUM SERVICE (SILVER).\r\n\r\nYou could be the next lucky winner. The next draw is at the end of this month.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>2.1: WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber, fee based trade set-up option for Forex traders regardless of experience or background. I provide traders suggested trades, and some market commentary related to open trades or factors within the overall market that have my interest.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and the various trade styles plus how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nAdditional information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE you will require a PayPal account.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2: PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE THIS MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">\r\n<strong>NET PIPS THIS MONTH SO FAR:            +416</strong>\r\n<strong>NET PIPS THIS YEAR SO FAR:                +1,815</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>NET PIPS 2015        10,686</strong>\r\n<strong>NET PIPS 2014        11,209</strong></p>\r\n(I trade basically for 10 months a year. I do not trade middle July through early September or middle December through early January).\r\n\r\nIf you want more data or detail about the performance and the tabs on my website landing page do not answer your questions, contact me directly and I will supply the trading data you require. There are NO secrets. There are many, many spreadsheets detailing performance trade by trade and by trade and by trading style, way too many to place in this blog. If you are interested in the PREMIUM SERVICE and want more information, all you have to do is ask.\r\n\r\n<u>2.3: PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBER PROMOTION:</u>\r\n\r\nPlease note that until the end of February 2016, I have a very special subscription offer in place. You can check this out on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by clicking on the FX PROMOTIONS tab at the top of the page.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>3.1: LAST WEEK’S NEWS – MY THOUGHTS:</strong>\r\n\r\nIf you trade any of the financial markets, you would have witnessed carnage during the past week unless you had your head buried in a bucket of sand like Stephen Poloz, BOC Bank Governor.\r\n\r\nThe unwinding of the JPY currency, the sell off of the Nikkei, banks stocks around the world getting crushed, oil selling off then bouncing then selling off again, the fear of local then a world recession all of these created a FEAR and GREED run.\r\n\r\nWith all the above said, I have yet to mention the little lady with a big stick (Janet Yellen, Fed Chair) who sat through her bi-annual testimony to a select committee on the hill, what I can only describe as a circus. I am really impressed with the way she stands her ground in front of these poorly educated up-starts who know very little other than to point blame and shuffle papers. No wonder Donald Trump has cross party support with the Washington protest vote. In the first hour last Wednesday, I counted 40% questions and 60% statements; this is an improvement from recent Q&amp;A. I recall 75% statements once to Ben Bernake, I know that lots of people, maybe, the vast majority couldn\'t care less, but for me politicians should be setting an example and not performing in front of the media like a collection numpties, which is what we have around the U.S. Eurozone and UK for example. Is it any wonder mainstream politics all over is suffering protest votes to fringe parties or candidates.\r\n\r\nAway from politics…\r\n\r\nFEAR rules right now and it’s dangerous.\r\n\r\nThe ripple effects of China and Oil were enough to be living with a week or so ago, now we have my list from above (JPY, Nikkei, Bank Stocks, Recession fears) to add to this.\r\n\r\nBe careful, Monday is Presidents Day in the U.S. and markets are closed. Volumes will be lower and coming off a weekend with so much geopolitical news in the air, China coming back on line after New Year holidays… it could be messy at best, choppy guaranteed and decimation at worst.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>3.2: WHAT’S ON MY MIND:</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>ARE WE HEADING INTO A STORM OF DEBT DEFAULTS?</strong></p>\r\nI was prompted to write this article due to the fact that over the past several weeks the number of pieces written by economists at the behest of areas of the media has been increasing. Delving further into what I originally perceived to be nothing other than scaremongering, it got my brain thinking maybe there is some merit in exploration. I am more of a cynic than a doom and gloom person, having said that I hope this makes your grey matter move the way it did mine.\r\n\r\nThis piece draws together not just my original thoughts but also some deeper economic theories from the research, which I hope demonstrates the potential for the storm / wave of debt default in a format that is easy to follow.\r\n\r\nI am a Forex trader, not an economist. I studied Government and Politics and British Constitution back in the day. However, it does not take a brain surgeon or rocket scientist to observe the fact that financial systems appear dangerously unstable.\r\n\r\nThe immediate effect of this is obviously a hit and test of political stability, but in my opinion confidence, if you like social stability will also suffer as FEAR grips.\r\n\r\nOver the past few days, I have heard on BLOOMBERG and CNBC and read quite a few articles where the chatter relating to recession has become almost tantamount to a fever.\r\n\r\nIs it worse than 2007?\r\n\r\nI am not sure. What I do know is that with GDP levels at 1.0%-2.5% dotted around the globe, to slip into a negative is much easier than if inflation was good at 2%, which seems to be every central banks objective. Therefore, yes; recession is a fear.\r\n\r\nSince 2007-8 the scene of the financial crash, global debt levels have once again increased. In a recession, the chance of these debts being paid or even managed in many instances would be, in my opinion quite difficult, as asset prices would nose dive rendering servicing of debt practically impossible for most.\r\n\r\nIn my blogs I often use the phrase “Burying one’s head in the sand like an ostrich”.\r\n\r\nI do not want to be judged as a doom and gloom merchant, but I do worry that in todays world obsession with instant gratification and at times fear of reality if we have the balls to actually look at what we have regarding global debts.\r\n\r\nAccounting for the fear of recession can we look objectively at what there is vis-à-vis large institutional debt and attack it based on an orderly fashion or do we once again go into crash mode with the “Too big to fail” Lehman Brothers and a potential equivalent of an AIG bailout on the cards?\r\n\r\nMy fear is that to address these issues is way beyond the current global backdrop. It is a “dog eat dog” environment especially with currencies and the fight for growth and inflation. Politically we do have leaders capable of managing this potential.\r\n\r\nEuropean banks, especially German are under real pressure and at least $1 trillion of debts (non-performing loans), have been admitted to and these are mostly associated with emerging markets. This is what we know, and as we also know from the EUROZONE there is bound to be much more under the counter.\r\n\r\nThere are massive social issues on the horizon should “bail-ins”, which is now the Eurozone bailout approach, be required for failing banks as off the street investors as well as large fund investors may have to cover debts from their deposits. If this were to happen we would have utter chaos and people would take to the streets. In my opinion, in this event, the 2007 crash would be viewed in history as minor news in comparison to what could be on the cards in the near future.\r\n\r\nBear in mind the ECB has conducted numerous bank stress tests over the past few years since the Financial crash of 2007-8. These tests were designed to show and alleviate concerns that the European banks could survive another crash. Right now, I am reading several theories that many banks are still under-capitalized and would simply fail under another crisis.\r\n\r\nLet me re-iterate in this event, in my opinion, we would have panic, fear, chaos, and runs on banks and violence on the streets.\r\n\r\nWhat starts all of this?\r\n\r\nChina?\r\n\r\nIt really is hard to say. The PBOC / Chinese government want to devalue the Yuan to compete in the currency wars.\r\n\r\nI have debated the longer-term effects of QE (Quantitative Easing) over the past year or so in the blog and decided that ultimately its effects are to bring spending forward but the future catches up with you. The Chinese government will be looking at all options should they want to enter currency wars with more tools over and above currency devaluation.\r\n\r\nI think that since 2007 this has been brewing, certainly central banks have maybe not fully understood the effects of falling commodity and finished goods pricing. It was seen initially as a good thing as it meant that purchasing of goods could still carry on as the west exited the 2007-8 period.\r\n\r\nLooking back flooding of the markets with cheaper options, only fueled DEFLATION. The fact that cheaper Chinese goods flooded markets hit domestic production and domestic labour rates and employment. At the same time the central bank support of QE masks the under-belly of what was happening.\r\n\r\nNow, we have the FED trying to establish normality after a period of extensive QE and market accommodation. As we have seen this move to ‘normalization” is very difficult and challenging.\r\n\r\nEvery piece of bad economic U.S. economic data is viewed as a potential for a FED reversal, it is very challenging, very volatile and we have huge market uncertainty across all financial markets.\r\n\r\nEuropean banks were down 7% last week and I think it was a sector when we have had 7 days in a row of declines. Greece is back in recession, more stimulus is called for, and despite all of the EUR negative news the EUR/USD is now up for two weeks in a row.\r\n\r\nUncertainty, insanity, divergence, lack of correlations call it what you want, it is hard to trade on fundamentals alone at the moment and at times the technicals do not line up.\r\n\r\nI have talked a lot about DEFLATION in the past two years. Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but I wonder if the central banks had let DEFLATION flow through the markets would we be in a better global position now?\r\n\r\nAm I being unfair, I know that central banks do not know how to fight / eradicate DEFLATION. Liquidity yes, that is a prime function of a central bank, they can all improve liquidity but is that about all? Am I being unfair?\r\n\r\nAt the end of the day the FED is at the forefront, will they stoke the fire to create insolvencies around the world?\r\n\r\nJanet Yellen is caught between a “rock and a hard place”, they are in the crossfires now for trying to normalize. If they remained accommodative the debt increases on all the free money.\r\n\r\nFrom a Forex traders perspective what does all this mean?\r\n\r\nThe USD will be front and centre in my opinion. So much emerging markets debt is linked to the USD and commodities are also tied to the greenback.\r\n\r\nIf I recall 2007-8, it was the commodity currencies that were the easier trades. This time around with oil circa $30 a barrel and full scale currency wars in operation plus a China slowdown… carnage.\r\n\r\nIt would make the drama of the SNB peg removal seem a mere tranche of volatility over a day or to. Brokers would go under, rate spreads virtually impossible to trade and volatility so great you would have to be sidelined to preserve capital.\r\n\r\nEquities, bonds, options, futures or Forex would be driven by news events. It would not be pretty, it would be carnage and moves would be swift, violent and at times without foundation of facts a complete gamble would ensue.\r\n\r\nI have never seen an orderly approach to debt management, as denial is always the predecessor to the facts. In my mind it can only be dis-orderly.\r\n\r\nI hope that this never happens but it is a real risk and not a fairytale or script for Steven Speilberg or the like to mull over. Speilberg might after the event should it happen!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) EXCLUSIVE CONTENT:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(This area contains exclusive content for PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) subscribers)<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n	<li><strong> COMING UP THIS WEEK:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5.1: THIS WEEK’S FOREX NEWS THAT INTERESTS ME:</u>\r\n\r\n(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market other than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to <a href=\"http://www.forexfactory.com\">www.forexfactory.com</a> and <a href=\"http://www.tradingeconomics.com\">www.tradingeconomics.com</a> for a more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).\r\nSUNDAY: CNY – Trade Balance.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: EUR – Draghi (ECB) speaks.\r\nMONDAY: NZD – Retail Sales and Inflation Expectations.\r\nMONDAY: AUD – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: NZD – GDT Dairy Auctions.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: GBP – Unemployment Claims.\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – FOMC Meeting Minutes.\r\nWEDNESDAY: NZD – PPi\r\nWEDNESDAY: AUD – Employment Data.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: USD – Core and Retail Sales.\r\nFRIDAY: CAD – Core and Retail Sales.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>5.1: THE USD MAJORS SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS: </u>\r\n\r\n(In this section I have as usual kept my charts as minimalist as possible. With regards to charting in my opinion less is more!! I hope that they are clear. All readers regardless of level of experience should be able to follow my thoughts from my comments to the levels on the charts with ease)\r\n\r\nMy comments are contained on the charts.\r\n\r\nEUR/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.1250\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/are-we-heading-into-a-storm-of-debt-defaults/eurusd-d-13022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7296\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7296\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/EURUSD-D-13022016-1024x505.png\" alt=\"EURUSD D 13022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"505\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.4493\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/are-we-heading-into-a-storm-of-debt-defaults/gbpusd-d-13022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7297\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7297\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/GBPUSD-D-13022016-1024x505.png\" alt=\"GBPUSD D 13022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"505\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.7103\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/are-we-heading-into-a-storm-of-debt-defaults/audusd-d-13022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7295\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7295\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/AUDUSD-D-13022016-1024x505.png\" alt=\"AUDUSD D 13022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"505\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.6619\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/are-we-heading-into-a-storm-of-debt-defaults/nzdusd-d-13022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7298\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7298\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/NZDUSD-D-13022016-1024x505.png\" alt=\"NZDUSD D 13022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"505\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.3856\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/are-we-heading-into-a-storm-of-debt-defaults/usdcad-d-130202016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7299\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7299\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCAD-D-130202016-1024x505.png\" alt=\"USDCAD D 130202016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"505\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF - Weekly Closing Price: 0.9769\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/are-we-heading-into-a-storm-of-debt-defaults/usdchf-d-13022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7300\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7300\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCHF-D-13022016-1024x505.png\" alt=\"USDCHF D 13022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"505\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY - Weekly Closing Price: 113.24\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/are-we-heading-into-a-storm-of-debt-defaults/usdjpy-d-13022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7301\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7301\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDJPY-D-13022016-1024x505.png\" alt=\"USDJPY D 13022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"505\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3: CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nVery simple this week; Monday is a U.S. holiday. I would advise being light with trading until Tuesday. Markets will be thin, volume light and probably highly speculative. Why put yourself through that?\r\n\r\nThere is a lot of high beta economic data this week. Trade on reality and not on speculation.\r\n\r\nThere will be reams of speculation this weekend, remember that\'s all it is speculation.\r\n\r\nBe savvy…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nTake care,\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nDATE: 13<sup>th</sup> February 2016\r\nBLOG REFERENCE: #188 FREE NEWSLETTER\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','ARE WE HEADING INTO A STORM OF DEBT DEFAULTS?','','inherit','closed','closed','','7305-revision-v1','','','2016-02-13 13:31:57','2016-02-13 18:31:57','',7305,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/7305-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(7307,1,'2016-02-13 13:32:56','2016-02-13 18:32:56','<strong><u>THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU</u></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li><strong> INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nI hope that after the JPY implosion over the past week you either made a ton of pips / $$$ or alternatively you may have been like me, not losing, not making pips and you missed the whole JPY pairs move because your trade limit order entries did not trigger. As long as you did not lose $$$, you live to fight another day!\r\n\r\nThe great thing about trading Forex – there is a market every day and with the market comes a different range of opportunities. It’s all about patience to accept the high probability trades and make your move. Patience is the key along with RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT for trading longevity. Trading Forex is not rocket science, fundamentally it is quite boring repetition, but with fun when you see your broker account increase.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nJust to remind you; you could be the next winner of a free PREMIUM SERVICE (SILVER) subscription; if you subscribe to receive this free blog via my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nYou are automatically entered into a free monthly draw, once you’ve subscribed. Each month during 2016 one lucky blog subscriber will receive a free subscription to the PREMIUM SERVICE (SILVER).\r\n\r\nYou could be the next lucky winner. The next draw is at the end of this month.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>2.1: WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber, fee based trade set-up option for Forex traders regardless of experience or background. I provide traders suggested trades, and some market commentary related to open trades or factors within the overall market that have my interest.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and the various trade styles plus how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nAdditional information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE you will require a PayPal account.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2: PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE THIS MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>NET PIPS THIS MONTH SO FAR:            +416</strong>\r\n<strong>NET PIPS THIS YEAR SO FAR:                +1,815</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>NET PIPS 2015        10,686</strong>\r\n<strong>NET PIPS 2014        11,209</strong></p>\r\n(I trade basically for 10 months a year. I do not trade middle July through early September or middle December through early January).\r\n\r\nIf you want more data or detail about the performance and the tabs on my website landing page do not answer your questions, contact me directly and I will supply the trading data you require. There are NO secrets. There are many, many spreadsheets detailing performance trade by trade and by trade and by trading style, way too many to place in this blog. If you are interested in the PREMIUM SERVICE and want more information, all you have to do is ask.\r\n\r\n<u>2.3: PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBER PROMOTION:</u>\r\n\r\nPlease note that until the end of February 2016, I have a very special subscription offer in place. You can check this out on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by clicking on the FX PROMOTIONS tab at the top of the page.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>3.1: LAST WEEK’S NEWS – MY THOUGHTS:</strong>\r\n\r\nIf you trade any of the financial markets, you would have witnessed carnage during the past week unless you had your head buried in a bucket of sand like Stephen Poloz, BOC Bank Governor.\r\n\r\nThe unwinding of the JPY currency, the sell off of the Nikkei, banks stocks around the world getting crushed, oil selling off then bouncing then selling off again, the fear of local then a world recession all of these created a FEAR and GREED run.\r\n\r\nWith all the above said, I have yet to mention the little lady with a big stick (Janet Yellen, Fed Chair) who sat through her bi-annual testimony to a select committee on the hill, what I can only describe as a circus. I am really impressed with the way she stands her ground in front of these poorly educated up-starts who know very little other than to point blame and shuffle papers. No wonder Donald Trump has cross party support with the Washington protest vote. In the first hour last Wednesday, I counted 40% questions and 60% statements; this is an improvement from recent Q&amp;A. I recall 75% statements once to Ben Bernake, I know that lots of people, maybe, the vast majority couldn\'t care less, but for me politicians should be setting an example and not performing in front of the media like a collection numpties, which is what we have around the U.S. Eurozone and UK for example. Is it any wonder mainstream politics all over is suffering protest votes to fringe parties or candidates.\r\n\r\nAway from politics…\r\n\r\nFEAR rules right now and it’s dangerous.\r\n\r\nThe ripple effects of China and Oil were enough to be living with a week or so ago, now we have my list from above (JPY, Nikkei, Bank Stocks, Recession fears) to add to this.\r\n\r\nBe careful, Monday is Presidents Day in the U.S. and markets are closed. Volumes will be lower and coming off a weekend with so much geopolitical news in the air, China coming back on line after New Year holidays… it could be messy at best, choppy guaranteed and decimation at worst.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>3.2: WHAT’S ON MY MIND:</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>ARE WE HEADING INTO A STORM OF DEBT DEFAULTS?</strong></p>\r\nI was prompted to write this article due to the fact that over the past several weeks the number of pieces written by economists at the behest of areas of the media has been increasing. Delving further into what I originally perceived to be nothing other than scaremongering, it got my brain thinking maybe there is some merit in exploration. I am more of a cynic than a doom and gloom person, having said that I hope this makes your grey matter move the way it did mine.\r\n\r\nThis piece draws together not just my original thoughts but also some deeper economic theories from the research, which I hope demonstrates the potential for the storm / wave of debt default in a format that is easy to follow.\r\n\r\nI am a Forex trader, not an economist. I studied Government and Politics and British Constitution back in the day. However, it does not take a brain surgeon or rocket scientist to observe the fact that financial systems appear dangerously unstable.\r\n\r\nThe immediate effect of this is obviously a hit and test of political stability, but in my opinion confidence, if you like social stability will also suffer as FEAR grips.\r\n\r\nOver the past few days, I have heard on BLOOMBERG and CNBC and read quite a few articles where the chatter relating to recession has become almost tantamount to a fever.\r\n\r\nIs it worse than 2007?\r\n\r\nI am not sure. What I do know is that with GDP levels at 1.0%-2.5% dotted around the globe, to slip into a negative is much easier than if inflation was good at 2%, which seems to be every central banks objective. Therefore, yes; recession is a fear.\r\n\r\nSince 2007-8 the scene of the financial crash, global debt levels have once again increased. In a recession, the chance of these debts being paid or even managed in many instances would be, in my opinion quite difficult, as asset prices would nose dive rendering servicing of debt practically impossible for most.\r\n\r\nIn my blogs I often use the phrase “Burying one’s head in the sand like an ostrich”.\r\n\r\nI do not want to be judged as a doom and gloom merchant, but I do worry that in todays world obsession with instant gratification and at times fear of reality if we have the balls to actually look at what we have regarding global debts.\r\n\r\nAccounting for the fear of recession can we look objectively at what there is vis-à-vis large institutional debt and attack it based on an orderly fashion or do we once again go into crash mode with the “Too big to fail” Lehman Brothers and a potential equivalent of an AIG bailout on the cards?\r\n\r\nMy fear is that to address these issues is way beyond the current global backdrop. It is a “dog eat dog” environment especially with currencies and the fight for growth and inflation. Politically we do have leaders capable of managing this potential.\r\n\r\nEuropean banks, especially German are under real pressure and at least $1 trillion of debts (non-performing loans), have been admitted to and these are mostly associated with emerging markets. This is what we know, and as we also know from the EUROZONE there is bound to be much more under the counter.\r\n\r\nThere are massive social issues on the horizon should “bail-ins”, which is now the Eurozone bailout approach, be required for failing banks as off the street investors as well as large fund investors may have to cover debts from their deposits. If this were to happen we would have utter chaos and people would take to the streets. In my opinion, in this event, the 2007 crash would be viewed in history as minor news in comparison to what could be on the cards in the near future.\r\n\r\nBear in mind the ECB has conducted numerous bank stress tests over the past few years since the Financial crash of 2007-8. These tests were designed to show and alleviate concerns that the European banks could survive another crash. Right now, I am reading several theories that many banks are still under-capitalized and would simply fail under another crisis.\r\n\r\nLet me re-iterate in this event, in my opinion, we would have panic, fear, chaos, and runs on banks and violence on the streets.\r\n\r\nWhat starts all of this?\r\n\r\nChina?\r\n\r\nIt really is hard to say. The PBOC / Chinese government want to devalue the Yuan to compete in the currency wars.\r\n\r\nI have debated the longer-term effects of QE (Quantitative Easing) over the past year or so in the blog and decided that ultimately its effects are to bring spending forward but the future catches up with you. The Chinese government will be looking at all options should they want to enter currency wars with more tools over and above currency devaluation.\r\n\r\nI think that since 2007 this has been brewing, certainly central banks have maybe not fully understood the effects of falling commodity and finished goods pricing. It was seen initially as a good thing as it meant that purchasing of goods could still carry on as the west exited the 2007-8 period.\r\n\r\nLooking back flooding of the markets with cheaper options, only fueled DEFLATION. The fact that cheaper Chinese goods flooded markets hit domestic production and domestic labour rates and employment. At the same time the central bank support of QE masks the under-belly of what was happening.\r\n\r\nNow, we have the FED trying to establish normality after a period of extensive QE and market accommodation. As we have seen this move to ‘normalization” is very difficult and challenging.\r\n\r\nEvery piece of bad economic U.S. economic data is viewed as a potential for a FED reversal, it is very challenging, very volatile and we have huge market uncertainty across all financial markets.\r\n\r\nEuropean banks were down 7% last week and I think it was a sector when we have had 7 days in a row of declines. Greece is back in recession, more stimulus is called for, and despite all of the EUR negative news the EUR/USD is now up for two weeks in a row.\r\n\r\nUncertainty, insanity, divergence, lack of correlations call it what you want, it is hard to trade on fundamentals alone at the moment and at times the technicals do not line up.\r\n\r\nI have talked a lot about DEFLATION in the past two years. Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but I wonder if the central banks had let DEFLATION flow through the markets would we be in a better global position now?\r\n\r\nAm I being unfair, I know that central banks do not know how to fight / eradicate DEFLATION. Liquidity yes, that is a prime function of a central bank, they can all improve liquidity but is that about all? Am I being unfair?\r\n\r\nAt the end of the day the FED is at the forefront, will they stoke the fire to create insolvencies around the world?\r\n\r\nJanet Yellen is caught between a “rock and a hard place”, they are in the crossfires now for trying to normalize. If they remained accommodative the debt increases on all the free money.\r\n\r\nFrom a Forex traders perspective what does all this mean?\r\n\r\nThe USD will be front and centre in my opinion. So much emerging markets debt is linked to the USD and commodities are also tied to the greenback.\r\n\r\nIf I recall 2007-8, it was the commodity currencies that were the easier trades. This time around with oil circa $30 a barrel and full scale currency wars in operation plus a China slowdown… carnage.\r\n\r\nIt would make the drama of the SNB peg removal seem a mere tranche of volatility over a day or to. Brokers would go under, rate spreads virtually impossible to trade and volatility so great you would have to be sidelined to preserve capital.\r\n\r\nEquities, bonds, options, futures or Forex would be driven by news events. It would not be pretty, it would be carnage and moves would be swift, violent and at times without foundation of facts a complete gamble would ensue.\r\n\r\nI have never seen an orderly approach to debt management, as denial is always the predecessor to the facts. In my mind it can only be dis-orderly.\r\n\r\nI hope that this never happens but it is a real risk and not a fairytale or script for Steven Speilberg or the like to mull over. Speilberg might after the event should it happen!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) EXCLUSIVE CONTENT:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(This area contains exclusive content for PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) subscribers)<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n	<li><strong> COMING UP THIS WEEK:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5.1: THIS WEEK’S FOREX NEWS THAT INTERESTS ME:</u>\r\n\r\n(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market other than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to <a href=\"http://www.forexfactory.com\">www.forexfactory.com</a> and <a href=\"http://www.tradingeconomics.com\">www.tradingeconomics.com</a> for a more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).\r\nSUNDAY: CNY – Trade Balance.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: EUR – Draghi (ECB) speaks.\r\nMONDAY: NZD – Retail Sales and Inflation Expectations.\r\nMONDAY: AUD – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: NZD – GDT Dairy Auctions.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: GBP – Unemployment Claims.\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – FOMC Meeting Minutes.\r\nWEDNESDAY: NZD – PPi\r\nWEDNESDAY: AUD – Employment Data.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: USD – Core and Retail Sales.\r\nFRIDAY: CAD – Core and Retail Sales.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>5.1: THE USD MAJORS SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS: </u>\r\n\r\n(In this section I have as usual kept my charts as minimalist as possible. With regards to charting in my opinion less is more!! I hope that they are clear. All readers regardless of level of experience should be able to follow my thoughts from my comments to the levels on the charts with ease)\r\n\r\nMy comments are contained on the charts.\r\n\r\nEUR/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.1250\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/are-we-heading-into-a-storm-of-debt-defaults/eurusd-d-13022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7296\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7296\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/EURUSD-D-13022016-1024x505.png\" alt=\"EURUSD D 13022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"505\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.4493\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/are-we-heading-into-a-storm-of-debt-defaults/gbpusd-d-13022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7297\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7297\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/GBPUSD-D-13022016-1024x505.png\" alt=\"GBPUSD D 13022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"505\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.7103\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/are-we-heading-into-a-storm-of-debt-defaults/audusd-d-13022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7295\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7295\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/AUDUSD-D-13022016-1024x505.png\" alt=\"AUDUSD D 13022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"505\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.6619\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/are-we-heading-into-a-storm-of-debt-defaults/nzdusd-d-13022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7298\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7298\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/NZDUSD-D-13022016-1024x505.png\" alt=\"NZDUSD D 13022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"505\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.3856\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/are-we-heading-into-a-storm-of-debt-defaults/usdcad-d-130202016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7299\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7299\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCAD-D-130202016-1024x505.png\" alt=\"USDCAD D 130202016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"505\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF - Weekly Closing Price: 0.9769\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/are-we-heading-into-a-storm-of-debt-defaults/usdchf-d-13022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7300\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7300\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCHF-D-13022016-1024x505.png\" alt=\"USDCHF D 13022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"505\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY - Weekly Closing Price: 113.24\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/are-we-heading-into-a-storm-of-debt-defaults/usdjpy-d-13022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7301\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7301\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDJPY-D-13022016-1024x505.png\" alt=\"USDJPY D 13022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"505\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3: CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nVery simple this week; Monday is a U.S. holiday. I would advise being light with trading until Tuesday. Markets will be thin, volume light and probably highly speculative. Why put yourself through that?\r\n\r\nThere is a lot of high beta economic data this week. Trade on reality and not on speculation.\r\n\r\nThere will be reams of speculation this weekend, remember that\'s all it is speculation.\r\n\r\nBe savvy…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nTake care,\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nDATE: 13<sup>th</sup> February 2016\r\nBLOG REFERENCE: #188 FREE NEWSLETTER\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','ARE WE HEADING INTO A STORM OF DEBT DEFAULTS?','','inherit','closed','closed','','7305-revision-v1','','','2016-02-13 13:32:56','2016-02-13 18:32:56','',7305,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/7305-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(7309,1,'2016-02-19 15:40:21','2016-02-19 20:40:21','','RADAR 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10:24:00','',7331,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/NZDUSD-D-20022016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(7328,1,'2016-02-19 17:13:49','2016-02-19 22:13:49','','USDCAD D 20022016','','inherit','open','closed','','usdcad-d-20022016','','','2016-02-20 05:24:08','2016-02-20 10:24:08','',7331,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCAD-D-20022016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(7329,1,'2016-02-19 17:13:52','2016-02-19 22:13:52','','USDCHF D 20022016','','inherit','open','closed','','usdchf-d-20022016','','','2016-02-20 05:24:18','2016-02-20 10:24:18','',7331,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCHF-D-20022016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(7330,1,'2016-02-19 17:13:54','2016-02-19 22:13:54','','USDJPY D 20022016','','inherit','open','closed','','usdjpy-d-20022016','','','2016-02-20 05:24:28','2016-02-20 10:24:28','',7331,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDJPY-D-20022016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(7331,1,'2016-02-20 05:26:21','2016-02-20 10:26:21','<strong><u>THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU</u></strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li><strong> INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nWhat a tiring week last week turned out to be. It was really a 3.5 day week for me with the U.S. and Canadian holiday on Monday. Following the JPY explosion and implosion, I suppose I should not have been surprised to see the market calm down and consolidate.\r\n\r\nHowever, I sat at my desk, fingers ready at the keyboards to pounce and bugger all really happened. I spent most of the week telling subscribers I am sidelined, the markets are range bound, we are just moving sideways, the charts are a mess and I am neither chasing moves or manufacturing trades that do not meet the criteria of my TRADE PLAN. So, I was like a pork pie at a Jewish wedding…just sat there doing nothing.\r\n\r\nSo much for me telling new subscribers to Forex not worry there is a market everyday. Unless you are a prolific 10-pip scalper and day trader, this market has you sidelined, in my opinion. At least I have been practicing what I preach, patience… wait for the trades to come to you.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nJust to remind you; you could be the next winner of a free PREMIUM SERVICE (SILVER) subscription; if you subscribe to receive this free blog via my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nYou are automatically entered into a free monthly draw, once you’ve subscribed. Each month during 2016 one lucky blog subscriber will receive a free subscription to the PREMIUM SERVICE (SILVER).\r\n\r\nYou could be the next lucky winner. The next draw is next weekend.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>2.1: WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber, fee based trade set-up option for Forex traders regardless of experience or background. I provide traders suggested trades, and some market commentary related to open trades or factors within the overall market that have my interest.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and the various trade styles plus how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nAdditional information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE you will require a PayPal account.\r\n\r\n<u>2.2: PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE THIS MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>NET PIPS THIS MONTH SO FAR:            +958</strong>\r\n<strong>NET PIPS THIS YEAR SO FAR:                +2,357</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>NET PIPS 2015        10,686</strong>\r\n<strong>NET PIPS 2014        11,209</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">(I trade basically for 10 months a year. I do not trade middle July through early September or middle December through early January).</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">If you want more data or detail about the performance and the tabs on my website landing page do not answer your questions, contact me directly and I will supply the trading data you require. There are NO secrets. There are many, many spreadsheets detailing performance trade by trade and by trade and by trading style, way too many to place in this blog. If you are interested in the PREMIUM SERVICE and want more information, all you have to do is ask.</p>\r\n<u>2.3: PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBER PROMOTION:</u>\r\n\r\nThis is the final week of the this years promotion:\r\n\r\nPlease note that until the end of February 2016, I have a very special subscription offer in place. You can check this out on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by clicking on the FX PROMOTIONS tab at the top of the page.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>3.1: LAST WEEK’S NEWS – MY THOUGHTS:</strong>\r\n\r\nAs stated previously, it was a shortened trading week with the U.S. markets out for President’s Day last Monday. It felt like a short week, But however because of the lack of real trading activity it also felt like a long week!\r\n\r\nNevertheless, we had Draghi speak at length in the European Parliament about the single currency. His jawboning had a slow and steady dropping effect on the EUR/USD, but it was still contained within its range.\r\n\r\nThere was a lot of AUD and NZD top tier data releases last week, but not enough to springboard a move out of their trading ranges. Last week the commodity currencies acted independently of the EUR and GBP. They moved around within tight ranges and the daily charts, in particular the AUD/USD and NZD/USD are just a mess, just rage bound activity not even really touching the extremes, just awful for my trading style.\r\n\r\nEven the FOMC meeting minute’s reaction was a non-event. It was wetter than the wettest fish swimming in the deepest part of the ocean…. and that’s wet!\r\n\r\nGood CPi data indicating an inflation indication moved equities lower but the Forex reaction was basically more chop, chop, chop.\r\n\r\nLast week I witnessed more chop, chop, chop than Gordon Ramsey would in one of his restaurants.\r\n\r\nAre you getting a visual yet?\r\n\r\nBoring, boring, boring is how I sum, up the past week. In fact I would go so far as to say it was one of the most boring weeks in Forex trading that I have experienced in some 8 years.\r\n\r\nYes, I can hear people say oil made a few headlines and, yes I agree, but nothing really happened. Dips were bought and rallies were sold into. CNBC were happy with the buy the dip calls, but frankly I was bored. I shoveled a lot of snow last week.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>3.2: WHAT’S ON MY MIND:</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">THE NEW WORLD (FX) ORDER</p>\r\nBefore slashing my wrists, or for some of you, after reading the previous section, you may be thinking about looking for the closest bridge to jump off, let me place some more perspective on matters.\r\n\r\nWe have just seen a failed attempt by the BOJ to weaken the JPY through Negative Interest Rates, which were in addition to the existing QQE program. This was a token gesture, granted, but a failure. The JPY has strengthened since and Abe and Kuroda must be pulling their hair out. They have inflation targets, the timescales have been pushed out but even still they are miles, miles and miles away from achieving objective in my opinion.\r\n\r\nThe FED just raised rates and are standing behind that decision in spite of the crybaby’s on Wall Street treating every piece of data in isolation claiming, hoping and praying that there are no rate rises in 2016. They believe if they say it enough times it will happen…complete and utter boll**ks. There may not be 3 or 4 rate increases by the Fed this year, maybe just a couple but to say none this early is damn stupid in my opinion. One can argue if we have two blow out NFP months of data and improving CPI and PPi data then we could be back at 4 rises minimum and maybe not just 0.25% a time.\r\n\r\nThe UK is in a BREXIT showdown, with a vote due before the summer, probably late June. “JCB” Carney has already ruled out rate increases and if a BREXIT was unanimous in a referendum the cable would initially crater. In the interim we have great uncertainty. Right now, David Cameron, UK Prime Minister is trying to broker a fresh UK European agreement to use at the referendum as a means of staying inside Europe. The referendum could go either way.\r\n\r\nMario Draghi must pour out his cornflakes every morning shouting “What the F**k”, no matter what he does or says he cannot get the EUR/USD below 1.1000 again. He has bugger all support from the likes of Merkel, Weidmann or Schaeuble (aka Pit Bull), they are so wrapped up in middle-eastern refugees, German bank liquidity issues and opinion polls they just do not want Draghi and the ECB to rock the boat with more liquidity creating a greater financial burden for Germany.\r\n\r\nOn the fringes as I view them: -\r\n\r\nThe Bank of Canada (BOC): I am not a fan of Stephen Poloz, I think that he is so far behind the curve he can’t even see it anymore. Retail Sales last week were a bloody disaster. I have been saying for months that his head is buried in a bucket of sand. Canada is bordering on recession, once again. There is a lack of confidence. Yeah sure, we have a new government…..big whoopee. There are problems that cannot be solved through fiscal measures alone. Poloz will grasp at anything positive to prevent taking action. The Canadian way is to wait until matters are so bad and so poor, before action is taken. It is a pure reactionary environment. If I ever witnessed pro-activity in Canada I think I would have the nosebleed that would be in the Guinness book of records.\r\n\r\nI see rate cuts, fiscal aid from Trudeau and probably some form of QE and negative interest rates in Canada before its all said and done.\r\n\r\nThe Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA): Basically Australia is split in two; the west with failing commodities and under real pressure and the east, including Sydney with a potential housing bubble.\r\n\r\nI call this “Chalk and Cheese”, totally opposite ends of the spectrum. The balancing skills of a performer from Cirque Du Soleil are required here. Does Glenn Stevens the governor possess these?\r\n\r\nLast week he sent out his lackey John Edwards to inform the markets that the AUD/USD target rate is more comfortable around the 0.6500 levels in the opinion of the RBA.\r\n\r\nThe Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ): If anyone can advise me what Graeme Wheeler, RBNZ governor’s objectives are please do so. Between himself and English (Finance Minister), the actions and words are in conflict most of the time. The last news I have was that rate increases were off the table.\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, I do not think that the China effect is fully worked into the NZD/USD. Additionally, if the RBA is looking to shoot lower at 0.6500, where does that comparison level leave the NZD, closer to 0.5500?\r\n\r\nLast but not least, the Swiss National Bank (SNB): Thomas Jordan, man of the year 2015 with regards to Forex in 2015, speaks this week. I wonder what pearls of wisdom are going to emanate from his mouth. If he denies a target rate for the EUR/CHF… that’s code for there is one.\r\n\r\nI think with the EUR/CHF back above 1.1000, he will keep his powder dry but he will re-iterate the usual now familiar all options open, everything is on the table, nothing is ruled out, if we need to act we will type of phrases. But do not be fooled he may slide in an increase in negative interest rates, just because the markets do not believe the BOJ, he would rather the markets run to Gold and the JPY for safe havens and leave the CHF alone.\r\n\r\nThat is it…THE NEW WORLD ORDER…it is CURRENCY WARS and we are moving into the next stage.\r\n\r\nAs far as I am concerned central bank divergence is still breathing but the difference now versus the autumn/fall last year is that the power of the central bank is being tested.\r\n\r\nLet me say this in capitals/ uppercase…\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">IF YOU THINK THAT YOU CAN BEAT THE FED…. THINK AGAIN.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">OR</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">YOU CAN BEAT AN EGG BUT YOU CAN’T BEAT THE FED</p>\r\nAs traders we really need to be really careful moving forward whilst the geopolitical macro level factors settle down and are absorbed. You should not just go out and get long the USD. It is not that simple.\r\n\r\nWe have just left the longest running one-sided market ever and we need to unwind and clarify the central bank positions.\r\n\r\nI think if you entered trades today and closed your computer and never looked for 6 months you should be pleasantly surprised when you return, but its not that simple. Between now and then there will be chop and volatility to look after that could give huge swings in positions.\r\n\r\nLast year I was hopeful, in fact very positive on the fact that we should have directional markets. With 6/7 weeks of the year gone I can’t see it happening any time soon. Painful as it is chop-chop appears the way forward for now at least.\r\n\r\nThe one fact I do know is, do not fight the central banks. Even if you think their policies were dreamed up on the back of a fag (cigarette) packet. They have more money than you and they can print even more.\r\n\r\nThere was an article written last week by Mehreen Khan about negative interest rates being a “dangerous experiment”, well worth a read. We are in transition and it will be choppy until boundaries and directions are finalized.\r\n\r\nAs I state at the end of my blog each week. Forex trading is about longevity, survival, also knowing when to be in the market but even better when NOT to be in the market.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) EXCLUSIVE CONTENT:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(This area contains exclusive content for PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) subscribers)\r\n\r\n<strong>4.1: THE PREMIUM SERVICE – TRADING REVIEW: </strong>\r\n\r\n(This section can cover a multitude of points / facts etc. Basically it’s a 360-degree review, which I think should interest subscribers):\r\n\r\nWhat can I say apart from I am bored with this market. I am frustrated with the fact I just cannot find high probability trades with as low as risk as possible to trade.\r\n\r\nThis is now two weeks of the DXY being trapped in a tight range causing the USD majors to also remain trapped within ranges. It is painful at the moment. Many hours have been wasted, but plenty of snow has been shoveled!\r\n\r\nBasically, last week GBP/NZD trades on pullbacks to my protective stop loss levels, provided the vast percentage of pips gained. In addition, I took a few pips here and there on Gimme10 trades to fill up and pass time.\r\n\r\nI am hoping that we will pass through this boring period soon. Sadly, next week is low on high beta news releases. This means a major geopolitical event may the catalyst to break the ranges. As long as I am awake and in front of my screens, I don\'t care what the hell it is, I just want to be there for it.\r\n\r\nFrom a pip gained perspective the pip count certainly bounced up from last week. However, from a perspective of enjoying trading, right now, I am so far away from that point, as I am so bored. Fingers crossed for some action.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>4.2: TRADE STYLE DEFINITIONS:</strong>\r\n\r\n<u>4.2.1: RADAR TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\nThese are pre-meditated entry trades set from either Fibonacci levels, pivot points or previous support and resistance based off a combination of horizontal or trend line support or resistance.\r\nThe goal is always if possible to swing trade these trades by establishing a position that if market conditions apply allow the trade to gather traction and develop into a longer-term position trade.\r\n\r\n<u>4.2.2: FLASH TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\nMainly simply, opportunist trades in LIVE market conditions. These trades are either based off a pullback strategy, a GIMME10 strategy, or off momentum in a trading pair at the time of entry.\r\nThe goal is to either take 10-30 pips or see a sufficient move to place a protective stop in place to see if a swing trade develops.\r\nSome FLASH TRADES may form part of an overall trading plan with a given currency pair, but the entry could not be made via a LIMIT ORDER.\r\n\r\nIn addition in 2016, some FLASH TRADES can be of a longer duration, with very specific goals.\r\n\r\n<u>4.2.3: FUNDAMENTAL TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\nThese will be trades based off my TRADING PLAN goals for trades in line with my longer-term market views.\r\nTrades in this area will use in addition Fibonacci levels, Pivot points, trend lines and prior support and resistance levels, weekly and monthly ATR’s (Average True Ranges) when setting Stop Loss levels.\r\nThese trades are hopefully of a longer-term nature. They will be initially “single-lot” sized trades due to the wider stop placements that will be applied.\r\n\r\n<u>4.2.4: PART-TIME TRADER TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\nThese trade set-ups are intended to have a longer-term trading perspective. They are not only targeted at traders who consider they are part-time Forex traders; obviously, all traders can of course take advantage. (My definition of a part-time trader is one who is only able to look at their computer screens, or, mobile devices to check trades two or three times a day).\r\n\r\nA key feature of these set-ups is that they have much wider than normal stops to allow for market swings and volatility. The trades therefore have a smaller position size to allow for the swings in volatility, but multiple trades in the same currency pair are added when the core trade has gained traction in the desired direction.\r\n\r\nMy goal is to have multiple trades open/live at any one time and maybe 2/3 open/live trades with the same currency pair. I will of course suggest to take some profits along the way, but hopefully at the same time letting trades run as far as possible.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>4.3: THE PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE SPREADSHEETS (INCLUDING LIVE &amp; LIMIT ORDER TRADES):</strong>\r\n\r\nFull and complete details surrounding these trades can be found inside the PREMIUM SERVICE on my website. These can be found on the spreadsheets on the website.\r\n\r\n<strong>4.4: REVIEW OF OPEN LIMIT ORDER TRADES NOT YET TRIGGERED:</strong>\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.1: RADAR LIMIT ORDER TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\nRT649 – EUR/GBP:\r\nThis is based on two head and shoulders patterns that are still just about valid. This pair is well supported given the cable’s weakness. In fact, in my opinion it is this cross-rate keeping the EUR/USD elevated.\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.2: FUNDAMENTAL LIMIT ORDER TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\nFUN273 – EUR/USD:\r\nI have this trade just below the recent highs of 1.1473. I am not certain that this trade will trigger. We have Mario Draghi speaking Monday and the big EUROZONE growth revisions are on March 10<sup>th</sup>. I was hoping for a spike prior to this announcement. Fundamentally nothing has changed but in addition, there is nothing much that has excited me about trading this pair of late. It has been very much range bound.\r\n\r\nFUN274 – USD/CHF:\r\nOpposite to the EUR/USD. Longer-term I am still bullish this pair but if the EUR/USD spikes, this pair will fall and the lower the price the better the $$$ opportunity.\r\n\r\nFUN276 – AUD/NZD:\r\nA further set-up for longer-term view.\r\n\r\nFUN278 – GBP/NZD:\r\nAnother set-up to add to the longer-term trade; this one is set to trigger above trend line resistance.\r\n\r\nFUN280 – GBP/NZD:\r\nAnother long trade set-up for this pair; this trade is positioned at the lower end of the trading range.\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.3: PART-TIME TRADER LIMIT ORDER TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\nPART041 – USD/CHF:\r\nOpposite to the EUR/USD. Longer-term I am still bullish this pair but if the EUR/USD spikes, this pair will fall and the lower the price the better the $$$ opportunity.\r\n\r\nPART042 – EUR/USD:\r\nI have this trade just below the recent highs of 1.1473. I am not certain that this trade will trigger. We have Mario Draghi speaking Monday and the big EUROZONE growth revisions are on March 10<sup>th</sup>. I was hoping for a spike prior to this announcement. Fundamentally nothing has changed but in addition, there is nothing much that has excited me about trading this pair of late. It has been very much range bound.\r\n\r\nPART044 – AUD/NZD:\r\nA further set-up for longer-term view.\r\n\r\nPART045 – GBP/NZD:\r\nAnother set-up to add to the longer-term trade; this one is set to trigger above trend line resistance\r\n\r\nPART048 – GBP/NZD:\r\nAnother long trade set-up for this pair; this trade is positioned at the lower end of the trading range.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n	<li><strong> COMING UP THIS WEEK:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5.1: THIS WEEK’S FOREX NEWS THAT INTERESTS ME:</u>\r\n\r\n(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market other than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to <a href=\"http://www.forexfactory.com\">www.forexfactory.com</a> and <a href=\"http://www.tradingeconomics.com\">www.tradingeconomics.com</a> for a more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).\r\n\r\nSUNDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: CHF – Thomas Jordan (SNB) speaks.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: GBP – GDP.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: USD – GDP.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>5.1: THE USD MAJORS SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS: </u>\r\n\r\n(In this section I have as usual kept my charts as minimalist as possible. With regards to charting in my opinion less is more!! I hope that they are clear. All readers regardless of level of experience should be able to follow my thoughts from my comments to the levels on the charts with ease)\r\n\r\nMy comments are contained on the charts.\r\n\r\nEUR/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.1229\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/eurusd-d-20022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7325\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7325\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/EURUSD-D-20022016-1024x505.png\" alt=\"EURUSD  D 20022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"505\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.44404\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/gbpusd-d-20022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7326\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7326\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/GBPUSD-D-20022016-1024x505.png\" alt=\"GBPUSD D 20022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"505\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.7147\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/audusd-d-20022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7324\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7324\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/AUDUSD-D-20022016-1024x505.png\" alt=\"AUDUSD D 20022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"505\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.6627\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/nzdusd-d-20022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7327\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7327\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/NZDUSD-D-20022016-1024x505.png\" alt=\"NZDUSD D 20022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"505\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.3766\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/usdcad-d-20022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7328\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7328\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCAD-D-20022016-1024x505.png\" alt=\"USDCAD D 20022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"505\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF - Weekly Closing Price: 0.9891\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/usdchf-d-20022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7329\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7329\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCHF-D-20022016-1024x505.png\" alt=\"USDCHF D 20022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"505\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY - Weekly Closing Price: 112.54\r\n\r\n<u><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/usdjpy-d-20022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7330\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7330\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDJPY-D-20022016-1024x505.png\" alt=\"USDJPY D 20022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"505\" /></a></u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.3: CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nNo real heavy news agenda items this week except for U.S. GDP on Friday, which will be eagerly awaited and scrutinized to death.\r\n\r\nAs Forex traders we are going to be hostages of equities and oil….. what’s new!\r\n\r\nBe savvy…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nTake care,\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\r\n</a>DATE: 20<sup>h</sup> February 2016\r\nBLOG REFERENCE: #90 PREMIUM SERVICE\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','THE NEW WORLD (FX) ORDER','','publish','open','closed','','the-new-world-fx-order','','','2016-02-20 05:26:21','2016-02-20 10:26:21','',0,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?post_type=member_posts&#038;p=7331',0,'member_posts','',0),(7332,1,'2016-02-20 05:26:21','2016-02-20 10:26:21','<strong><u>THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU</u></strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li><strong> INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nWhat a tiring week last week turned out to be. It was really a 3.5 day week for me with the U.S. and Canadian holiday on Monday. Following the JPY explosion and implosion, I suppose I should not have been surprised to see the market calm down and consolidate.\r\n\r\nHowever, I sat at my desk, fingers ready at the keyboards to pounce and bugger all really happened. I spent most of the week telling subscribers I am sidelined, the markets are range bound, we are just moving sideways, the charts are a mess and I am neither chasing moves or manufacturing trades that do not meet the criteria of my TRADE PLAN. So, I was like a pork pie at a Jewish wedding…just sat there doing nothing.\r\n\r\nSo much for me telling new subscribers to Forex not worry there is a market everyday. Unless you are a prolific 10-pip scalper and day trader, this market has you sidelined, in my opinion. At least I have been practicing what I preach, patience… wait for the trades to come to you.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nJust to remind you; you could be the next winner of a free PREMIUM SERVICE (SILVER) subscription; if you subscribe to receive this free blog via my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nYou are automatically entered into a free monthly draw, once you’ve subscribed. Each month during 2016 one lucky blog subscriber will receive a free subscription to the PREMIUM SERVICE (SILVER).\r\n\r\nYou could be the next lucky winner. The next draw is next weekend.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>2.1: WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber, fee based trade set-up option for Forex traders regardless of experience or background. I provide traders suggested trades, and some market commentary related to open trades or factors within the overall market that have my interest.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and the various trade styles plus how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nAdditional information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE you will require a PayPal account.\r\n\r\n<u>2.2: PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE THIS MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>NET PIPS THIS MONTH SO FAR:            +958</strong>\r\n<strong>NET PIPS THIS YEAR SO FAR:                +2,357</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>NET PIPS 2015        10,686</strong>\r\n<strong>NET PIPS 2014        11,209</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">(I trade basically for 10 months a year. I do not trade middle July through early September or middle December through early January).</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">If you want more data or detail about the performance and the tabs on my website landing page do not answer your questions, contact me directly and I will supply the trading data you require. There are NO secrets. There are many, many spreadsheets detailing performance trade by trade and by trade and by trading style, way too many to place in this blog. If you are interested in the PREMIUM SERVICE and want more information, all you have to do is ask.</p>\r\n<u>2.3: PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBER PROMOTION:</u>\r\n\r\nThis is the final week of the this years promotion:\r\n\r\nPlease note that until the end of February 2016, I have a very special subscription offer in place. You can check this out on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by clicking on the FX PROMOTIONS tab at the top of the page.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>3.1: LAST WEEK’S NEWS – MY THOUGHTS:</strong>\r\n\r\nAs stated previously, it was a shortened trading week with the U.S. markets out for President’s Day last Monday. It felt like a short week, But however because of the lack of real trading activity it also felt like a long week!\r\n\r\nNevertheless, we had Draghi speak at length in the European Parliament about the single currency. His jawboning had a slow and steady dropping effect on the EUR/USD, but it was still contained within its range.\r\n\r\nThere was a lot of AUD and NZD top tier data releases last week, but not enough to springboard a move out of their trading ranges. Last week the commodity currencies acted independently of the EUR and GBP. They moved around within tight ranges and the daily charts, in particular the AUD/USD and NZD/USD are just a mess, just rage bound activity not even really touching the extremes, just awful for my trading style.\r\n\r\nEven the FOMC meeting minute’s reaction was a non-event. It was wetter than the wettest fish swimming in the deepest part of the ocean…. and that’s wet!\r\n\r\nGood CPi data indicating an inflation indication moved equities lower but the Forex reaction was basically more chop, chop, chop.\r\n\r\nLast week I witnessed more chop, chop, chop than Gordon Ramsey would in one of his restaurants.\r\n\r\nAre you getting a visual yet?\r\n\r\nBoring, boring, boring is how I sum, up the past week. In fact I would go so far as to say it was one of the most boring weeks in Forex trading that I have experienced in some 8 years.\r\n\r\nYes, I can hear people say oil made a few headlines and, yes I agree, but nothing really happened. Dips were bought and rallies were sold into. CNBC were happy with the buy the dip calls, but frankly I was bored. I shoveled a lot of snow last week.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>3.2: WHAT’S ON MY MIND:</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">THE NEW WORLD (FX) ORDER</p>\r\nBefore slashing my wrists, or for some of you, after reading the previous section, you may be thinking about looking for the closest bridge to jump off, let me place some more perspective on matters.\r\n\r\nWe have just seen a failed attempt by the BOJ to weaken the JPY through Negative Interest Rates, which were in addition to the existing QQE program. This was a token gesture, granted, but a failure. The JPY has strengthened since and Abe and Kuroda must be pulling their hair out. They have inflation targets, the timescales have been pushed out but even still they are miles, miles and miles away from achieving objective in my opinion.\r\n\r\nThe FED just raised rates and are standing behind that decision in spite of the crybaby’s on Wall Street treating every piece of data in isolation claiming, hoping and praying that there are no rate rises in 2016. They believe if they say it enough times it will happen…complete and utter boll**ks. There may not be 3 or 4 rate increases by the Fed this year, maybe just a couple but to say none this early is damn stupid in my opinion. One can argue if we have two blow out NFP months of data and improving CPI and PPi data then we could be back at 4 rises minimum and maybe not just 0.25% a time.\r\n\r\nThe UK is in a BREXIT showdown, with a vote due before the summer, probably late June. “JCB” Carney has already ruled out rate increases and if a BREXIT was unanimous in a referendum the cable would initially crater. In the interim we have great uncertainty. Right now, David Cameron, UK Prime Minister is trying to broker a fresh UK European agreement to use at the referendum as a means of staying inside Europe. The referendum could go either way.\r\n\r\nMario Draghi must pour out his cornflakes every morning shouting “What the F**k”, no matter what he does or says he cannot get the EUR/USD below 1.1000 again. He has bugger all support from the likes of Merkel, Weidmann or Schaeuble (aka Pit Bull), they are so wrapped up in middle-eastern refugees, German bank liquidity issues and opinion polls they just do not want Draghi and the ECB to rock the boat with more liquidity creating a greater financial burden for Germany.\r\n\r\nOn the fringes as I view them: -\r\n\r\nThe Bank of Canada (BOC): I am not a fan of Stephen Poloz, I think that he is so far behind the curve he can’t even see it anymore. Retail Sales last week were a bloody disaster. I have been saying for months that his head is buried in a bucket of sand. Canada is bordering on recession, once again. There is a lack of confidence. Yeah sure, we have a new government…..big whoopee. There are problems that cannot be solved through fiscal measures alone. Poloz will grasp at anything positive to prevent taking action. The Canadian way is to wait until matters are so bad and so poor, before action is taken. It is a pure reactionary environment. If I ever witnessed pro-activity in Canada I think I would have the nosebleed that would be in the Guinness book of records.\r\n\r\nI see rate cuts, fiscal aid from Trudeau and probably some form of QE and negative interest rates in Canada before its all said and done.\r\n\r\nThe Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA): Basically Australia is split in two; the west with failing commodities and under real pressure and the east, including Sydney with a potential housing bubble.\r\n\r\nI call this “Chalk and Cheese”, totally opposite ends of the spectrum. The balancing skills of a performer from Cirque Du Soleil are required here. Does Glenn Stevens the governor possess these?\r\n\r\nLast week he sent out his lackey John Edwards to inform the markets that the AUD/USD target rate is more comfortable around the 0.6500 levels in the opinion of the RBA.\r\n\r\nThe Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ): If anyone can advise me what Graeme Wheeler, RBNZ governor’s objectives are please do so. Between himself and English (Finance Minister), the actions and words are in conflict most of the time. The last news I have was that rate increases were off the table.\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, I do not think that the China effect is fully worked into the NZD/USD. Additionally, if the RBA is looking to shoot lower at 0.6500, where does that comparison level leave the NZD, closer to 0.5500?\r\n\r\nLast but not least, the Swiss National Bank (SNB): Thomas Jordan, man of the year 2015 with regards to Forex in 2015, speaks this week. I wonder what pearls of wisdom are going to emanate from his mouth. If he denies a target rate for the EUR/CHF… that’s code for there is one.\r\n\r\nI think with the EUR/CHF back above 1.1000, he will keep his powder dry but he will re-iterate the usual now familiar all options open, everything is on the table, nothing is ruled out, if we need to act we will type of phrases. But do not be fooled he may slide in an increase in negative interest rates, just because the markets do not believe the BOJ, he would rather the markets run to Gold and the JPY for safe havens and leave the CHF alone.\r\n\r\nThat is it…THE NEW WORLD ORDER…it is CURRENCY WARS and we are moving into the next stage.\r\n\r\nAs far as I am concerned central bank divergence is still breathing but the difference now versus the autumn/fall last year is that the power of the central bank is being tested.\r\n\r\nLet me say this in capitals/ uppercase…\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">IF YOU THINK THAT YOU CAN BEAT THE FED…. THINK AGAIN.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">OR</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">YOU CAN BEAT AN EGG BUT YOU CAN’T BEAT THE FED</p>\r\nAs traders we really need to be really careful moving forward whilst the geopolitical macro level factors settle down and are absorbed. You should not just go out and get long the USD. It is not that simple.\r\n\r\nWe have just left the longest running one-sided market ever and we need to unwind and clarify the central bank positions.\r\n\r\nI think if you entered trades today and closed your computer and never looked for 6 months you should be pleasantly surprised when you return, but its not that simple. Between now and then there will be chop and volatility to look after that could give huge swings in positions.\r\n\r\nLast year I was hopeful, in fact very positive on the fact that we should have directional markets. With 6/7 weeks of the year gone I can’t see it happening any time soon. Painful as it is chop-chop appears the way forward for now at least.\r\n\r\nThe one fact I do know is, do not fight the central banks. Even if you think their policies were dreamed up on the back of a fag (cigarette) packet. They have more money than you and they can print even more.\r\n\r\nThere was an article written last week by Mehreen Khan about negative interest rates being a “dangerous experiment”, well worth a read. We are in transition and it will be choppy until boundaries and directions are finalized.\r\n\r\nAs I state at the end of my blog each week. Forex trading is about longevity, survival, also knowing when to be in the market but even better when NOT to be in the market.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) EXCLUSIVE CONTENT:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(This area contains exclusive content for PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) subscribers)\r\n\r\n<strong>4.1: THE PREMIUM SERVICE – TRADING REVIEW: </strong>\r\n\r\n(This section can cover a multitude of points / facts etc. Basically it’s a 360-degree review, which I think should interest subscribers):\r\n\r\nWhat can I say apart from I am bored with this market. I am frustrated with the fact I just cannot find high probability trades with as low as risk as possible to trade.\r\n\r\nThis is now two weeks of the DXY being trapped in a tight range causing the USD majors to also remain trapped within ranges. It is painful at the moment. Many hours have been wasted, but plenty of snow has been shoveled!\r\n\r\nBasically, last week GBP/NZD trades on pullbacks to my protective stop loss levels, provided the vast percentage of pips gained. In addition, I took a few pips here and there on Gimme10 trades to fill up and pass time.\r\n\r\nI am hoping that we will pass through this boring period soon. Sadly, next week is low on high beta news releases. This means a major geopolitical event may the catalyst to break the ranges. As long as I am awake and in front of my screens, I don\'t care what the hell it is, I just want to be there for it.\r\n\r\nFrom a pip gained perspective the pip count certainly bounced up from last week. However, from a perspective of enjoying trading, right now, I am so far away from that point, as I am so bored. Fingers crossed for some action.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>4.2: TRADE STYLE DEFINITIONS:</strong>\r\n\r\n<u>4.2.1: RADAR TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\nThese are pre-meditated entry trades set from either Fibonacci levels, pivot points or previous support and resistance based off a combination of horizontal or trend line support or resistance.\r\nThe goal is always if possible to swing trade these trades by establishing a position that if market conditions apply allow the trade to gather traction and develop into a longer-term position trade.\r\n\r\n<u>4.2.2: FLASH TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\nMainly simply, opportunist trades in LIVE market conditions. These trades are either based off a pullback strategy, a GIMME10 strategy, or off momentum in a trading pair at the time of entry.\r\nThe goal is to either take 10-30 pips or see a sufficient move to place a protective stop in place to see if a swing trade develops.\r\nSome FLASH TRADES may form part of an overall trading plan with a given currency pair, but the entry could not be made via a LIMIT ORDER.\r\n\r\nIn addition in 2016, some FLASH TRADES can be of a longer duration, with very specific goals.\r\n\r\n<u>4.2.3: FUNDAMENTAL TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\nThese will be trades based off my TRADING PLAN goals for trades in line with my longer-term market views.\r\nTrades in this area will use in addition Fibonacci levels, Pivot points, trend lines and prior support and resistance levels, weekly and monthly ATR’s (Average True Ranges) when setting Stop Loss levels.\r\nThese trades are hopefully of a longer-term nature. They will be initially “single-lot” sized trades due to the wider stop placements that will be applied.\r\n\r\n<u>4.2.4: PART-TIME TRADER TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\nThese trade set-ups are intended to have a longer-term trading perspective. They are not only targeted at traders who consider they are part-time Forex traders; obviously, all traders can of course take advantage. (My definition of a part-time trader is one who is only able to look at their computer screens, or, mobile devices to check trades two or three times a day).\r\n\r\nA key feature of these set-ups is that they have much wider than normal stops to allow for market swings and volatility. The trades therefore have a smaller position size to allow for the swings in volatility, but multiple trades in the same currency pair are added when the core trade has gained traction in the desired direction.\r\n\r\nMy goal is to have multiple trades open/live at any one time and maybe 2/3 open/live trades with the same currency pair. I will of course suggest to take some profits along the way, but hopefully at the same time letting trades run as far as possible.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>4.3: THE PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE SPREADSHEETS (INCLUDING LIVE &amp; LIMIT ORDER TRADES):</strong>\r\n\r\nFull and complete details surrounding these trades can be found inside the PREMIUM SERVICE on my website. These can be found on the spreadsheets on the website.\r\n\r\n<strong>4.4: REVIEW OF OPEN LIMIT ORDER TRADES NOT YET TRIGGERED:</strong>\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.1: RADAR LIMIT ORDER TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\nRT649 – EUR/GBP:\r\nThis is based on two head and shoulders patterns that are still just about valid. This pair is well supported given the cable’s weakness. In fact, in my opinion it is this cross-rate keeping the EUR/USD elevated.\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.2: FUNDAMENTAL LIMIT ORDER TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\nFUN273 – EUR/USD:\r\nI have this trade just below the recent highs of 1.1473. I am not certain that this trade will trigger. We have Mario Draghi speaking Monday and the big EUROZONE growth revisions are on March 10<sup>th</sup>. I was hoping for a spike prior to this announcement. Fundamentally nothing has changed but in addition, there is nothing much that has excited me about trading this pair of late. It has been very much range bound.\r\n\r\nFUN274 – USD/CHF:\r\nOpposite to the EUR/USD. Longer-term I am still bullish this pair but if the EUR/USD spikes, this pair will fall and the lower the price the better the $$$ opportunity.\r\n\r\nFUN276 – AUD/NZD:\r\nA further set-up for longer-term view.\r\n\r\nFUN278 – GBP/NZD:\r\nAnother set-up to add to the longer-term trade; this one is set to trigger above trend line resistance.\r\n\r\nFUN280 – GBP/NZD:\r\nAnother long trade set-up for this pair; this trade is positioned at the lower end of the trading range.\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.3: PART-TIME TRADER LIMIT ORDER TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\nPART041 – USD/CHF:\r\nOpposite to the EUR/USD. Longer-term I am still bullish this pair but if the EUR/USD spikes, this pair will fall and the lower the price the better the $$$ opportunity.\r\n\r\nPART042 – EUR/USD:\r\nI have this trade just below the recent highs of 1.1473. I am not certain that this trade will trigger. We have Mario Draghi speaking Monday and the big EUROZONE growth revisions are on March 10<sup>th</sup>. I was hoping for a spike prior to this announcement. Fundamentally nothing has changed but in addition, there is nothing much that has excited me about trading this pair of late. It has been very much range bound.\r\n\r\nPART044 – AUD/NZD:\r\nA further set-up for longer-term view.\r\n\r\nPART045 – GBP/NZD:\r\nAnother set-up to add to the longer-term trade; this one is set to trigger above trend line resistance\r\n\r\nPART048 – GBP/NZD:\r\nAnother long trade set-up for this pair; this trade is positioned at the lower end of the trading range.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n	<li><strong> COMING UP THIS WEEK:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5.1: THIS WEEK’S FOREX NEWS THAT INTERESTS ME:</u>\r\n\r\n(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market other than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to <a href=\"http://www.forexfactory.com\">www.forexfactory.com</a> and <a href=\"http://www.tradingeconomics.com\">www.tradingeconomics.com</a> for a more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).\r\n\r\nSUNDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: CHF – Thomas Jordan (SNB) speaks.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: GBP – GDP.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: USD – GDP.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>5.1: THE USD MAJORS SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS: </u>\r\n\r\n(In this section I have as usual kept my charts as minimalist as possible. With regards to charting in my opinion less is more!! I hope that they are clear. All readers regardless of level of experience should be able to follow my thoughts from my comments to the levels on the charts with ease)\r\n\r\nMy comments are contained on the charts.\r\n\r\nEUR/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.1229\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/eurusd-d-20022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7325\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7325\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/EURUSD-D-20022016-1024x505.png\" alt=\"EURUSD  D 20022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"505\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.44404\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/gbpusd-d-20022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7326\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7326\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/GBPUSD-D-20022016-1024x505.png\" alt=\"GBPUSD D 20022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"505\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.7147\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/audusd-d-20022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7324\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7324\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/AUDUSD-D-20022016-1024x505.png\" alt=\"AUDUSD D 20022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"505\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.6627\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/nzdusd-d-20022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7327\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7327\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/NZDUSD-D-20022016-1024x505.png\" alt=\"NZDUSD D 20022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"505\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.3766\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/usdcad-d-20022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7328\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7328\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCAD-D-20022016-1024x505.png\" alt=\"USDCAD D 20022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"505\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF - Weekly Closing Price: 0.9891\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/usdchf-d-20022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7329\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7329\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCHF-D-20022016-1024x505.png\" alt=\"USDCHF D 20022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"505\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY - Weekly Closing Price: 112.54\r\n\r\n<u><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/usdjpy-d-20022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7330\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7330\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDJPY-D-20022016-1024x505.png\" alt=\"USDJPY D 20022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"505\" /></a></u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.3: CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nNo real heavy news agenda items this week except for U.S. GDP on Friday, which will be eagerly awaited and scrutinized to death.\r\n\r\nAs Forex traders we are going to be hostages of equities and oil….. what’s new!\r\n\r\nBe savvy…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nTake care,\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\r\n</a>DATE: 20<sup>h</sup> February 2016\r\nBLOG REFERENCE: #90 PREMIUM SERVICE\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','THE NEW WORLD (FX) ORDER','','inherit','closed','closed','','7331-revision-v1','','','2016-02-20 05:26:21','2016-02-20 10:26:21','',7331,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/7331-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),