Good Day,

If you are finding it frustrating trying to trade at the moment...join the club.

I had a conference call (Go to meeting)  with my peers trading group yesterday just prior to the World Cup starting yesterday. My three trading colleagues  have stopped trading and they have no intention of starting again until after the World Cup, or maybe even after the summer!! Personally, that length of a holiday is a bit extreme and not everyone can afford to do that. Part-time traders looking at an extra income stream maybe but the rest of us, August is enough for me, I get the shakes if it's longer....

Do not force trades, you have to stay disciplined and wait for the trades to come to you. As I have said many, many times before patience in trading is a virtue.

<span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>
FOMC DAY:</strong></span>

At last we have the FOMC releases and Press Conference later today and there is a chance that we may get some volatility.

Will Janet Yellen remain DOVISH or will she turn HAWKISH? Basically, this is what its all about today in my opinion. Carney set the ball rolling last week and the jury is still out on whether the FED will move their goalposts by bringing forward interest rate hikes from early/mid 2015 to early 2015 or even the end of 2014.

It is interest rates that basically move the Forex markets, so this is what we need to look for in the statement and from her comments in the press conference.

<span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>I</strong>f the FED remains DOVISH:</span>

GBP/USD: will re-test 1.7000 and maybe break higher towards 1.7100.
EUR/USD: may break through 1.3885 and seat about 1.3620 and then 1.3670 (1.4000 is the resistance trend line on the ascending wedge on the Daily chart).
NZD/USD: This should test 0.8700 and a break above would test 0.8750 and maybe a touch higher towards 52 week highs at 0.8780.

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">If the FED does a "Mark Carney " and go HAWKISH:</span>

EUR/USD: can head lower towards 1.3500 and a break lower towards 1.3470, which is the support trend line on the ascending wedge on the Daily Chart.
GBP/USD: is very well supported at 1.6920 and really does NOT get bearish until it breaks below 1.6920. Realistically, with Carney's comments it may be more prudent to avoid this pair as it can snap back at anytime.
USD/JPY: If Yellen is HAWKISH stocks should come down and so should bonds and yields will rise, so to play the USD/JPY could be tricky.
AUD/USD, NZD/USD will both head lower and the USD/CAD would bounce.

&nbsp;

<span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>SNB LIBOR DECISION and PRESS CONFERENCE:</strong></span>

This will take place prior to the next DAILY FX POST. A week or so ago I was 85% certain that the SNB were going to act on the the back of ECB easing. Today, I am not that sure, however, never rule out anything, especially from the SNB. They have a history. The EUR/CHF is not under breaking the present floor level of 1.2000 at the moment, so I am inclined to think no action...but as I say do NOT rule out nothing happening.

&nbsp;

Just be careful with whatever you do, be very careful breakouts and breakdowns tend to be 100% false at the moment.

I will be watching and reacting to the FOMC,  and, I will tweet any trades that I enter.

Good luck, but take care with your position sizes...

&nbsp;

Scott