<strong>
</strong>
<ol>
 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>
</ol>
Wow… I must be getting old! This past week has just flown by.

From a trading perspective being positive, I am still adding pips to the yearly total, which now stands at 1,493 pips of net profit.

I did what I promised I would do during the month of March, which was to remove trades that I felt were going nowhere fast “sticky” and where having them “LIVE” was just preventing me from adding too many other trades because it would extend my RISK beyond the parameters that I am comfortable with. In fact, I removed almost 1,000 pips in total. This was about 25% from normal trading and 75% of the aforementioned “sticky” trades.

I know that it sounds crazy but even after c.10 years of trading to have those “sticky” trades gone is still an uplifting experience once you have come to terms with banking the loss in both pips and $$$. Thankfully, the trades were small sized, so the pain in $$$ was not as great as it could have been. However, I measure myself in net pips of profit and my annual goal is 10,000 pips. I have beaten this objective in all three years that the PREMIUM SERVICE has been in operation so I have my work cut out this year, which will be, very fragmented due to a house move and early vacation

On a further positive note… fingers crossed and also touching wood as I type this… no further software issues.

Leading on from the pleasantries…

Last week was dominated by BREXIT and “THE DONALDS” twitter account. Nothing new in this.

BREXIT – part two comes later in “THE SOAPBOX” in section 5, so I will leave my thoughts, views and commentary until there.

I was asked what is the rationale for splitting it down as I have, which I explain further below:
<ul>
 	<li>Part One – since the vote and all the shenanigans that have taken place even before the Lisbon Treaty (Article 50) has been triggered.</li>
 	<li>Part Two – A50 triggered what are the 27-remaining member EUROPEAN UNION countries looking for and what is the potential common ground (the easy bits for negotiation) moving forward.</li>
 	<li>Part Three – The Negotiation period and possible outcomes. The new look in Europe and the UK.</li>
 	<li>Part Four – the trades that I will be focused on. Levels of entry. This is more based on the bottoms for reversal trade opportunities.</li>
</ul>
Whilst parts one and two will run back to back, I am not 100% sure parts three and four will immediately follow as I want to see the opening shorts of negotiation, rather than the guesswork and rumours that fill the media pages at the moment.

“THE DONALD” just cannot help himself. This twitter account of his should be shut down. I understand why he wants it and likes it but it is damaging his presidency and it undermines his team who appear to come under continual scrutiny about their validity and credentials to do the job for which they were hired. He does NOT have enough kids to fill every portfolio!

He is back on currency manipulation once again. The Chinese Premier is due to fly in for some Florida Golf soon and “THE DONALD” is laying the groundwork in advance.

If TRUMP was so hell bent on punishing all currency manipulators why on earth has he not singled out the SNB. The Swiss Central Bank spent over $65 billion supporting the CHF with currency intervention in 2016. Oh...let me guess why Thomas Jordan has NOT been singled out?

Could it be that the US does not compete with the Swiss vis-à-vis high-end watch and clock mechanisms? Of course, China competes with the US in the same markets. Very shallow Donald.

Regarding the markets…

The month end and Q1 fix was a volatile affair as institutions re-balanced their FX positioning. The USD took quite a big hit…. From my perspective, it was a buy the dips and sell the rips opportunity. For PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers, I tweeted my exits from several positions late in the Asian session on the 30th just in case the European session was caught up in pre-fixing on the back of the Tusk press conference regarding the response to the UK BREXIT formal letter. At times, I wonder if I am too cautious!

Plus…

Keep one eye on GREECE. They have a debt re-payment of €8.2 billion in July this year and guess what? No cash to pay it. This story will develop moving forward over the next few weeks. Be prepared GREECE BAILOUT ACT IV is coming soon to a theatre near you!

Moving on…

THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU – LIVE webinars.

#9 this Monday 3rd April at 5:30PM.
<ul>
 	<li>To attend live - you need Google Chrome as a browser.</li>
 	<li>You cannot view on smart phones or tablets, only Laptops and Desktops.</li>
</ul>
The “LIVE WEBINAR” link is below: -

<a href="http://bit.ly/drivethru-live">http://bit.ly/drivethru-live</a>

If you cannot listen live you can check out my You Tube channel,
<strong><em>Scott Pickering</em></strong> <strong><em>Weekly FX Drive Thru</em></strong> for a freshly posted copy of the webinar, usually, within a couple of hours of its completion.

Here is the link for my you tube channel, when I get too 100 subscribers (if I get there) I can have my own personalized shortened link. If you like the style of my webinar, please subscribe. The benefits are that as soon as a new webinar is posted you are emailed.: -

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCV-9VDnNkHjTPBzKqLqCGJw/videos">https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCV-9VDnNkHjTPBzKqLqCGJw/videos</a>

Almost there

If you would like to be in the monthly draw to win a “FREE 10-WEEK SUBSCRIPTION” to the PREMIUM SERVICE, valued at CAD$1,000.00, all you have to do is subscribe to receive this FREE NEWSLETTER on my website <a href="http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>  On my welcome page just below my cube logo is where you complete your subscription.

<strong> </strong>
<ol start="2">
 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE – LOOKING FORWARD:</strong></li>
</ol>
<u>ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/ECON-DATA-02042017.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-9319" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/ECON-DATA-02042017-1024x991.png" alt="" width="1024" height="991" /></a>

&nbsp;

<u>MY THOUGHTS ON THE WEEK AHEAD:</u>

A nice busy week coming up with the highlight obviously being NFP on Friday: -
<ol>
 	<li>GBP: The UK dominates this week with a series of PMI data Manufacturing, Services and Construction. This data will either support the calls that cable has bottomed or they will throw the whole BREXIT negotiations and the UK economy uncertainty back to the forefront once again.</li>
 	<li>USD: The NFP release will once again take pride of place regarding the data releases this week. We will be placed once again in a will they (FED) / wont they (FED) hike 2 or 3 times more this year?

We also have FOMC meeting minutes and ISM PMI data releases this week. There should be nothing new in the FED minutes.</li>
 	<li>AUD: Not expecting much out of the RBA this week, except more of the same. Retails sales and Trade Balance numbers will be interesting though and could cause a few ripples. Recently AUD data has been pretty dull from a trading perspective.</li>
</ol>
Obviously, the BREXIT news will be on the wires at ad-hoc times. I am however, expecting this to calm down as the 27 members of the EU do not meet to formally discuss BREXIT until the end of April and negotiations do not start until the end of May. Nevertheless, we still should be on our toes.

<u>USD MAJORS – “IMMEDIATE” SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE:</u>

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/T-CHART-020417.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-9320" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/T-CHART-020417-1024x849.png" alt="" width="1024" height="849" /></a>

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

The charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.
<strong>EUR/USD:</strong>

<strong> <a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/EURUSD-D-02042017.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-9336" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/EURUSD-D-02042017-1024x454.png" alt="" width="1024" height="454" /></a></strong>

<strong> </strong>

<strong>GBP/USD:</strong>

<strong> <a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/GBPUSD-D-02042017.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-9337" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/GBPUSD-D-02042017-1024x454.png" alt="" width="1024" height="454" /></a></strong>

<strong> </strong>

<strong>AUD/USD:</strong>

<strong> <a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/AUDUSD-D-02042017.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-9335" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/AUDUSD-D-02042017-1024x454.png" alt="" width="1024" height="454" /></a></strong>

<strong> </strong>

<strong>NZD/USD:</strong>

<strong> <a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/NZDUSD-D-02042017.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-9338" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/NZDUSD-D-02042017-1024x454.png" alt="" width="1024" height="454" /></a></strong>

<strong> </strong>

<strong>USD/CAD:</strong>

<strong> <a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/USDCAD-D-02042017.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-9339" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/USDCAD-D-02042017-1024x454.png" alt="" width="1024" height="454" /></a></strong>

<strong> </strong>

<strong>USD/CHF:</strong>

<strong> <a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/USDCHF-D-02042017.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-9340" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/USDCHF-D-02042017-1024x454.png" alt="" width="1024" height="454" /></a></strong>

<strong> </strong>

<strong>USD/JPY:</strong>

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/USDJPY-D-02042017.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-9341" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/USDJPY-D-02042017-1024x454.png" alt="" width="1024" height="454" /></a>

&nbsp;

<strong>

</strong>

&nbsp;
<ol start="3">
 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>
</ol>
<u>WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE?</u>

The PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber based Forex support service offering not just trade set-ups, but a bunch of different support services that differentiates the PREMIUM SERVICE from other providers, my competitors, that operate in the same space.

Full details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href="http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.

Further information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.

<u> </u>

<u>PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>

Below are current monthly and year to date PREMIUM SERVICE performance statistics. These can also be found on my welcome page under the TAB “THE HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE OF THE PREMIUM SERVICE”

Basically, from the spreadsheets below you can see that for the month of March PREMIUM SERVICE trades generated a net total of 673 pips and for 2017 year to date the pip total sits at 1,493

Other highlights / lowlights are: -
<ol>
 	<li>Compared with the same point last year 2017 trails 2016 by 85 pips.</li>
 	<li>My ratio of profitable to loss making trades is lagging this year. I am usually in the 75% / 25% area but this year so far it is 64% / 36%. I still have some work to do!</li>
 	<li>My trading this year only shows a total of 21 trades out of 132 trades in total that are based upon shorter–term time horizon’s.</li>
</ol>
<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/PREM-SERV-PERF1-MARCH-2017.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-9317" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/PREM-SERV-PERF1-MARCH-2017-982x1024.png" alt="" width="982" height="1024" /></a>

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/PREM-SERV-PERF2-YTDMARCH2017.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-9318" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/PREM-SERV-PERF2-YTDMARCH2017-1024x1000.png" alt="" width="1024" height="1000" /></a>

<u>PREMIUM SERVICE –  SUBSCRIBER PROMOTION:</u>

<strong><u>“DOUBLE IT UP”</u></strong>

I usually run a PREMIUM SERVICE subscriber promotion at the end of the old year /start of a new year.

Because I knew that this year I would be moving home and traveling in Q2, I deliberately decided to wait, to launch a promotion around that time.

This is the biggest and I believe the best subscriber promotion that I have ever offered.

What is <strong>“DOUBLE IT UP”</strong> all about…

Basically, from now until June 30<sup>th,</sup> 2017 anyone who subscribes to the PREMIUM SERVICE through my “SUBSCRIBE HERE” tab at the top of my welcome page will have their subscription period doubled at no extra cost.

In addition, all subscriptions regardless of the date of subscribing will not start until June 30th 2017.

This means that from the day of joining the PREMIUM SERVICE you will have 100% access. This could give you up to an additional 12 weeks of membership to the PREMIUM SERVICE depending upon the date you subscribe.

This 12-week period covers the period that I am moving home and traveling, and therefore there may be days at a time with zero activity, and there will be some because I will be out of coverage and simply on vacation, but it’s all “FREE” in any case, so whatever happens, it is all a bonus anyhow as your subscription period will officially commence June 30th 2017.

Confirmation of the <strong>“DOUBLE IT UP” </strong>will be contained in the “welcome on board documents” the accompanies your subscription confirmation.

This is the best and most generous promotion that I have ever offered since starting the PREMIUM SERVICE and I hope that many of you take advantage.

I add below my “DRIVE THRU blog / TRADING date charts for 2017, 2018 and 2019.

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/BLOG-DATES-2017-2019.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-9300" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/BLOG-DATES-2017-2019-1024x621.png" alt="" width="1024" height="621" /></a>

PLUS:

If you would like to know a little more about THE PREMIUM SERVICE please feel free to watch the following 40-minute video via the link below:

<a href="http://bit.ly/PremServiceQ217">http://bit.ly/PremServiceQ217</a>

PLEASE NOTE: the above video is best viewed using a Google Chrome browser.

<strong>
</strong>
<ol start="4">
 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:</strong></li>
</ol>
<u>TRADING REVIEW:</u>

I was felling quite comfortable having banked some pips and $$$ late Thursday last week ahead of the month and quarter end.  Wow… that was a volatile London Fix. The FX positioning has really been skewed of late and I guess the Q1 close was an ideal opportunity to dress up the balance sheets. I still find it quite bizarre that institutions still dress up performances for a day. As you all know a balance sheet is just a snapshot on a particular day. It is the trading accounts that give a real position. Are we still this naive?

I was asked on a few occasions last week if I am happy with my trading in 2017? Talk about a loaded question…

The answer is quite simple…NO I am not.

Nothing has changed from the commentaries in this section practically from the start of 2017. The markets are tough to read hour by hour as we are so news driven. The markets turn so quickly you can lose $1,000 a day no problem on shorter term trades. This is why I have almost avoided FLASH and RADAR trading this year and being 100% honest I will continue to do so until I see a change.

My days of giving money back to brokers have long gone. Frankly that is a mugs game I no longer participate in. In my opinion you have to trade leaner and be prepared to be very flexible with your stop placements.

I know many of you would like more shorter-term time framed trades, I understand this but let me give you the example of a current AUD/USD RADAR TRADE (RT755). This trade is going nowhere fast. Granted it has flexed upwards and downwards and I have moved my stop to accommodate some additional moving to the upside, but it has very little momentum in either direction.

This can be for several geopolitical and commodity price reasons all mixed in together that nullifies any movement, such as Iron Ore, Gold, Copper and the USD. To give you one reason for this pairs tight trading range, frankly, I would be guessing.

So… I am just sitting in this trade. I have 3 other RADAR TRADES at good levels of resistance to enter short. These will be pulled early next week if no action is forthcoming to trigger my entry levels.

I said last week, maybe I am guilty of over-thinking these markets. Am I doing a “Frasier Crane”, trying to rationalize every potential move? Maybe I am. I like to have a plan. I have a plan, but it’s so slow to fall into place. Do I still believe in my plan? Yes; I do.

Without getting too anal; I know I am trying to rationalize a completely irrational market place at times. I mean, when you think about it, the very fact the market moves on the back of a tweet from a buffoon probably does indicate I am putting too many brain cells to work, I am making something that is simple too complicated. However, I do have my TRADE PLAN that has worked so well for over 5 years. I do like to have my fundamental views lined up, together with directional trading to give me a greater confidence. As soon as I let one of my parameters fall I feel that I am weakening my position and reasons to trade.

The solution is…. always TRADE YOUR PLAN and be patient.

We are trading very tight ranges in most pairs and therefore it is difficult to get too excited each time I sit in front of my screens.

At any one time, I have 4/5 trade set up potentials ready to tweet that fall away during the trading day for one reason or another.

We are in a different trading environment and therefore we must adjust. As I keep saying we appear to be totally news driven. Fundamentals matter and they will always trump technical set ups in a news driven environment, as technical levels are mostly ignored.

I spoke earlier in the week with my peer group and everyone’s trading style is suffering to varying degrees. Everyone has amended their approach and position size. So, unfortunately there is no “Holy Grail” out there. My FX approach is for the long haul so I can and will wait / sit this out if necessary. I will not compromise my plan for increased risk. It all comes back to patience.

&nbsp;

<u>CORE TRADES:</u>
<ol>
 	<li>EUR/USD and USD/CHF: - I have added and taken off positions. I will still continue to add to these core positions, I can still see the reasons to buy dips and sell rips.

The bigger picture is that despite encouraging inflation data, the EUROZONE is facing major / serious headwinds ahead.</li>
 	<li>GBP/USD: - Nothing has really changed in my opinion.

There will be some great GBP long trades in the next 12 months. There will be greater opportunities long GBP than maybe those that remain on the short side.

A50 now triggered and the timeline for the BREXIT is now in play.

As I have stated on several occasions, very few people mention capital outflows out of the UK, these could be huge and are critical. This will start to bite sooner rather than later as the financial institutions start to make plans on their new structures inside a freshly shaped EUROPEAN UNION.</li>
 	<li>GBP/JPY: - I am not sure that this will be a core trade moving forward, but of all the GBP x rates, this one has a lot to lose should the cable fall. I am as you know nervous trading JPY related pairs. All I want is 100 pips profit with a stop behind it to let it run. Easier said than done. Over the past few days this trade has been playing snakes and ladders.</li>
 	<li>EUR/GBP: - Nothing has changed for me with this pair.

I am still somewhat nervous being short, but believe the EUROZONE risks outweigh those of the UK moving forward. My thoughts are that both the EUR &amp; GBP will start to react together moving forward with BREXIT issues and the EUR/GBP will be caught in the crossfire.

As mentioned over recent weeks, there are additional EUROZONE headwinds to take into consideration: - FRENCH and GERMAN ELECTIONS, A GREECE DEBT CRISIS (now more immanent) and a looming ITALIAN BANK CRISIS. Therefore, I believe in the longer-term the EUR/GBP will fall much lower.</li>
</ol>
<u>PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE / RETURN 2017:

</u>Given that we are at the end of Q1 I thought that it would be a good time to discuss more of my thoughts on 2017 so far, from a PREMIUM SERVICE trading result perspective.

As you know, the change and uncertainty in Q1 trading compared with Q4 2016 trading, took me by surprise. Was I naïve to believe that 2017 would be a clearer trading pathway than previous years? Maybe I was.

I did not account for “THE DONALD” continuing with his tweet onslaught, nor did I ever account for so much uncertainty placed around his administration for his lack of control and poor judgement in what to tweet. But then, I do not think most people could have allowed for this because we are in unknown territory.

Monetary Policy Divergence is starting to play a role, but at the moment despite FED commentary, it still is not 100% believed by the markets. The other Central banks dotted around the globe believe though, and their rhetoric has mellowed accordingly.

Basically, I did not allow for such a sea of change. The institutions have spent a great deal of time in Q1 unravelling trades and repositioning themselves and the banks such as Barclays in 90 days have epitomized the rough seas in which we operate by altering their macro views on how the EUR/USD will trade in 2017. They have got all bulled up on the single currency believing tapering and hikes will happen soon because EUROZONE inflation is rising. This belief was kicked back this week with both commentary from the ECB stating policy is NOT changing and Draghi’s recent hawkish tone was walked back due to the fact that German inflation has gone off the boil.

BARCLAYS FX FORECAST:

EUR/USD                              Q1                   Q2                   Q3                   Q4

Nov 2016 – Feb 2017:        1.02                1.01                1.01                0.99<u>

</u>Today:                                    1.09                1.06                1.03                1.05<u>

</u>I am not saying that they cannot change their forecasting but it very sudden and in my eyes very reactive.
<u>
</u>However, with the above as a backdrop I am disappointed with Q1 overall but not as disappointed as I could have been had I not traded differently and cleansed out trades.

MARCH 2017:                      Net pips added 673
YEAR TO DATE:                  1,493 pips

2016-2017 Comparison:    -85 pips behind the 2016 performance so far.

In my own mind, I feel like I should be at 3,000 pips net for the year. I have however since the start of the year removed some poor trades totaling 1,500 pips, so I can argue I am still in the zone. However, I need some focus through the next quarter which is very disjointed as I am away for several chunks of it. I love a challenge.

I am still not actively day trading. All trades are medium to longer-term trades.

MARCH 2017 – Profit / Loss trade ratios:                       69% / 31%

YEAR TO DATE – Profit / Loss trade ratios:                   64% / 36%

Improving, but my goal is 75% / 25%.

The bottom line is that I am still confident of achieving the 10,000-pip objective for the year but if the next three quarters offer up the uncertainty of Q1 it will be a nonstop challenge.
<u>

</u>

<u>PREMIUM SERVICE - TRADES REVIEW<strong>:</strong></u>

CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE - LIVE TRADES:

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/LIVE-02042017.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-9334" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/LIVE-02042017-777x1024.png" alt="" width="777" height="1024" /></a>

CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE – LIMIT ORDER TRADES:

&nbsp;

<strong><a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/LIMIT-02042017.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-9333" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/LIMIT-02042017-792x1024.png" alt="" width="792" height="1024" /></a> </strong>

<strong> </strong>
<ol start="5">
 	<li><strong> THE SOAPBOX:</strong></li>
</ol>
&nbsp;

<strong>LET THE FUN AND GAMES BEGIN (PART TWO):</strong>

Where to start.

Last week ahead of the A50 trigger I laid out basically the timetable of events for the BREXIT negotiations.

This week in Part Two, I wanted to take a slightly different view of BREXIT not so much from the day to day squabbles that will happen but the macro level overview of what the remaining 27 members of the EUROPEAN UNION will be looking to get out of BREXIT.

Remember, we are dealing with the EUROPEAN UNION and Brussels, nothing ever appears as it does on the surface, and beneath there is all sorts going on. If there is one thing since the establishment of the EUROPEAN UNION that I write with confidence is that what is said is not always what is meant and what isn’t said is what is meant.

The first couple of points are quite straightforward, without exception, I expect that every member country would be unanimous in the fact that they want the UK to pay up their dues until the very last second. If the UK is let off the hook it would cost them!! The UK leaving as a net contributor is a scare to the smaller countries as they may turn from being net receivers in the UNION to net contributors following BREXIT.

Before moving forward, I would imagine that from country to country there are some lines drawn in the sand on what is acceptable and unacceptable for a BREXIT deal. I firmly believe this will be a very messy affair for two years or so and even after the negotiations are complete they must present the deal to the 27 country heads for ratification. This will be a drawn-out procedure with many twists and turns.

First of all, trade is vital to all countries. The EU is not a free trade zone it is 100% bureaucratic and a rain forest of paper is required to get anything agreed. One should bear in mind the EU definition of a cabbage is 350+ pages long. Bear in mind, It took Canada years to get a trade agreement in place with the EU. Nothing is ever carried out at a pace. Everything in the EU is at two speeds; slow and stop. Do not get caught up in Brussels rhetoric.

I have read reports from various commentators, news bureaus, media outlets and the EU media centre itself to try to get the following information into basically a bullet point format rather than 500 pages worth of commentary.

The keys macro areas of concern by country:
<ul>
 	<li>CITIZENS RIGHTS (EU nationals in the UK and UK nationals in the EU):
Austria, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Ireland, Latvia, Lithuania, The Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia and Spain.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
 	<li>EU REVISED BUDGET CONTRIBUTIONS:
Austria, Hungary, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, The Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia and Sweden.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
 	<li>GOOD CONTINUED TRADE RELATIONS with the UK:
Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Italy, The Netherlands and Romania</li>
</ul>
<ul>
 	<li>CONTINUED SHARING OF SECURITY INFORMATION:
Belgium, Croatia, Estonia and Portugal.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
 	<li>EU UNITY FOLLOWING BREXIT:
Finland, France, Germany, Malta and Sweden.</li>
</ul>
So why have I done this research?

My main reason was to see if there was a theme. When negotiations start to keep matters positive and have a common agreement moving forward it is an excellent starting point. Now, I am not saying my 5 topics above were the only ones that I could find. There were more, like Tourism, Gibraltar, Scotland etc. but these represent the best tools for common ground in my opinion.

Whilst the UK basically voted for BREXIT based on anti-freedom of movement I have no doubt that a reciprocal deal will be struck to put at ease all those currently displaced nationals around the EUROPEAN UNION. From a UK matter this would draw a line under existing non-UK nationals residing in the UK and hopefully put those UK nationals living abroad at ease.

From a discussion perspective CITIZENS RIGHTS would in my opinion be a positive to focus on. In addition, the continued sharing of security and border intelligence would seem to benefit both sides of the negotiating table.

With regards to EU UNITY and REVISED BUDGET CONTRIBUTIONS following BREXIT, the UK has no interest in these topics and would not feature at all in the BREXIT negotiations.

The big one is of course TRADE.

7 out of 27 countries as far as I could see, have this as important to their futures. Basically, this represents only 25% of the member countries. If I were a negotiator for the UK I would feel a little let down by this number.

Being cynical, my take on this is that there is much more than 25%, but as the EU already knows that the UK wants a great trade deal they do not want to declare their hand.

So, the upshot is that Donald Tusk stated last Friday that before the UK can discuss with the EU any trade deals or the like, both parties must negotiate what has become known as “the divorce terms”.

There is of course a growing number of commentators who are saying that a negotiated settlement may never actually happen as both sides of the table have dug their heels in on how they want to proceed. In fact, do we have a Mexican standoff before we start?

It will be fun and games, there will be leaks, there will be rumours, there will be sound-bytes that are favorable describing an accord and there will be sound-bytes highlighting aspiration.

As mentioned several times since last June when the BREXIT referendum vote took place, having just two years to organize the BREXIT deal is tight. There are something in the region of 20,000 sets of rules and regulations to effectively manage throughout the divorce proceedings. When you look at the time line that I included last week (repeated below), the fact A50 was triggered on the 29th March means it will be the end of April before the EU leaders discuss BREXIT and then another month before negotiations begin. That is 2 months out of 24 months with zero activity. This does NOT give confidence at all with the time frame suggested. As mentioned on many occasions in the past, it took Greenland two years to exit and they had nothing like the complexities of the UK relationship

<em>As I understand it, the pathway forward is going to be something like this: -</em>
<ul>
 	<li><em>A50 triggered by UK on March 29th, 2017.

</em></li>
 	<li><em>On April 29th, 2017, the remaining 27 EU members meet to discuss the UK request to withdraw.

</em></li>
 	<li><em>There is then a period of two years set aside when negotiations begin. A draft of the deal agreed between both parties is put before the 27 leaders (if this is still the number in two years!!).

</em></li>
 	<li><em>20 of the current 27 member countries totaling at least 65% of the EU population needs to approve the exit deal.

</em></li>
 	<li><em>It is then ratified by the European Parliament.

</em></li>
 	<li><em>If at the end of two years of negotiations nothing is finalized they can be extended only if all member countries agree.

</em></li>
 	<li><em>If no agreement between the two sides is negotiated. </em><em>The UK leaves the EUROPEAN UNION.

</em></li>
 	<li><em>The UK Parliament repeals the 1972 European Communities Act.

</em></li>
 	<li><em>Should the UK want back into the EU it must go through the same procedures that any new entrant applies with.</em></li>
</ul>
As soon as we hear of multi-national banks leaving the city of London and job losses being announced the UK negotiating position will harden as public pressure to achieve a good deal will be expected. At the same time the EU negotiators do not want to give any preferential treatment for fear of a CONTAGION EFFECT.

Therefore in my opinion whilst the negotiating doors will be firmly closed, facts and figures will be leaked and there will be volatility attached.

There are traders who are saying that cable is building a bottom, which frankly I think is quite dangerous.

There is so much uncertainty moving forward.

After two years will we see a negotiated arrangement, something that can transition from what is there now to something new. Would this include a trade arrangement? These can take years to set up but if a framework was in place this would be a bonus for the UK.

Maybe we will have a negotiated extension because two years is not long enough to finalize an agreement.

Finally, perhaps the talks could breakdown and both sides could walk away from the negotiating table,

There are no guarantees of anything with this complex deal.

The pressure for both sides not to show weakness of any kind will be uppermost in everybody’s mind. The sides are starting from a position of mistrust and therefore in my opinion it can only get worse and then a stalemate would ensue.

…. LET THE FUN AND GAMES BEGIN…. (PART TWO) …

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<ol start="6">
 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS:</strong></li>
</ol>
Nothing more to add here, I have said enough except,

As usual…

Always remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.

Take care, have a great trading week.

Scott Pickering
The Pip Accumulator
Twitter: @pipaccumulator
<a href="http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/
</a>BLOG VERSION: #133 PREMIUM SERVICE
DATE: 2nd April 2017.

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