<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>THE PREMIUM SERVICE
</strong><strong>The Home of Single-Lot Trading
www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</strong></p>
<strong>DATE: 26.04.2015
REFERENCE: #57
</strong><strong>BLOG: THE PREMIUM SERVICE</strong><strong> </strong>

<strong>
</strong>
<ol>
	<li><strong> INTRODUCTION - MY OVERVIEW OF THE FOREX MARKET:</strong></li>
</ol>
<u>LOOKING BACKWARDS, FORWARDS &amp; SIDEWAYS (FOR GOOD MEASURE) AT THE FX MARKET:</u>

<u>1.1 - LOOKING BACKWARDS:</u>

There wasn’t really much at all last week that kept me glued to my computer screens. The DXY touched trend lines, broke through (depending upon how you drew the lines) and bounced around. It was really just a range bound week that was very choppy, and at times both shorts and longs were wiped out as both range extremities were tested. There was one piece of data that hit the wires during the week that created some surprise movement, plus the continued GREECE news.

<u>SNB NEGATIVE DEPOSIT – RATE AMENDMENT:</u>

On Wednesday last week, the SNB announced that they were changing the rules on negative deposit rates. Many people saw this as an easing move by the SNB and as a result the CHF was sold quite aggressively.

The USD/CHF came off its base at 0.9500 and rallied to 0.9720. The next day it gave basically all of it back. There were similar moves in the EUR/CHF and GBP/CHF, with huge chunks of the upside moves given back the following day.

Just to reinforce the type of year I am having in 2015, I had what I call an “ARMEGEDDON” trade in place (one at the extremes) to go long the USD/CHF at 0.9500. It triggered and as I was adjusting my LIMIT I fat fingered it closed at 0.9521. I then set it up again back at 0.9500. 5 minutes later it was at 0.9570, it never pulled back as the market reacted to the SNB data. I took a long trade on a minute pullback, took about 30 pips and was really happy with myself as it pulled back to about 0.9640. I thought I had the top 30 pips or so of the move. Then it took off once again and finished at 0.9720.

Naturally, the next day I tried to pick it up long as it pulled back and lost 50 pips in about 2 minutes. The drop was a fall like a hot knife through butter and basically the pullback move almost completely retraced the previous day’s move higher.

Then on Friday, I decided to set two or three what I called “Armageddon” trades. LIMIT ORDERS at extremes. One was for the USD/CHF. Into the close this pair dropped back to 0.9500 on the nose. Not that far away from my “Armageddon” entry.

This pair rose 220 pips and gave it all back inside 72 hours that was a stunning move.

&nbsp;

<u>GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS:</u>
<ol>
	<li><u> GREECE:</u></li>
</ol>
It’s still going….

Last Friday we had a EUROGROUP set of meetings with EUROZONE Finance Ministers. When these guys get together it has to be the most boring collection of numpties in the world. Their advisors are pale-faced, ashen looking, never seen much sunlight and wear factor 5,000 sun creams to protect themselves. They optimize the phrase from Blackadder Goes Forth (A brilliant BBC comedy with Rowan Atkinson and Stephen Fry) – these people are “Pen Pushing, Desk Sucking, Jotter-Blotters”.

Just imagine a room full of accountants educated at Cambridge or Oxford, who would consider those educated at the LSE (The London School of Economics) radical lefties, sitting in a room listening to Yanis aka no tie, Varoufakis (Greece Finance Minister) basically waffling about how Nazi Germany plundered Greek artifacts and owes the country monies back from World War II. This is content for a Ron Howard movie…priceless stuff.

On Friday, Bloomberg reported that he (Varoufakis) was considered by his peers to be “A time-waster, a gambler and an amateur”, high praise and very conducive to a GREECE settlement taking place. Varoufakis won’t have a huge Christmas card budget this year for his EUROGROUP buddies. If the boring accountants are this outspoken can you imagine what “The dogs of war” (Scheauble, Nowotny and Weidmann) would be like let 100% loose. I already think that Schaeuble must drink blood and not a burgundy at the Cheese and Wine functions.

EUROGROUP leader Jeroen Dijsselbloem, tried his best to place a positive spin on events, but “yer man” Varoufakis, basically kicked him in the nuts by stating that they were poles apart from any agreement. I for one would just love to be a fly on the wall at one of these meetings.

The CONTAGION looms in my opinion and the stakes are high.

The cultural differences are immense in the EUROZONE. I have written about this fact many times over the past two years, just check out previous EUROZONE related blogs (there are plenty of them) on my home page.

Debt forgiveness for GREECE and compensation for IRELAND, PORTUGAL etc. is the only way forward in my opinion. My views have not altered. This equivalent of a west-end farce played out in front of the world’s media does nothing to promote the effectiveness of the EUROZONE, nor does it show the strength in leadership ability in any area. It is in fact quite simply, a sales training video on “How not to ………….” I have seen tens of these in my earlier years on the planet.

This is going to eventually end in tears.

&nbsp;
<ol start="2">
	<li><u> OIL - YEMEN – IRAN:</u></li>
</ol>
With the bombings in Yemen, allegedly being suspended, this means that the geographical location fear to OIL supplies being disrupted should be over.

The IRAN nuclear issue picks up again this week as the negotiations on TRUST recommence. This should be fascinating to observe because neither side trusts each other.

From a trading perspective, OIL supplies are not threatened. OIL prices are rising because we have so much of it stored all over the world….go figure? I had an economics education, waste of bloody time that was… supply and demand my a**e.

&nbsp;
<ol start="3">
	<li><u> UK GENERAL ELECTION:</u></li>
</ol>
We are getting closer to the polling date of May 7<sup>th</sup> 2015. As this date looms the pressure on the cable should grow as uncertainty about the result should intensify. Right now, the voter’s polls, and there are lots of them, have the Labour Party out in front, and if they are not leading it is almost a tie between the Conservatives and Labour parties.

At this point it looks like no one party will achieve an overall majority so a hung parliament with a coalition of some sorts looks to be the result.

As is with UK politics the party with the greatest number of seats in the House of Commons, has the first bite at trying to form a working coalition. It is very unclear that even if Cameron’s Conservatives won the greatest number of seats whether they would get a working majority.

The previous party of coalition, the Liberal–Democrats has performed very poorly and looks like they will not gain many seats that would help the Conservatives to achieve a working majority. Here lies the problem for the Tories, the right wing extremist party UKIP the third potential greatest seat winner wants out of the EUROPEAN UNION. Because of this, an alliance would from a Conservative position alienate huge Conservative support. Where does Cameron go to form a minority government that can hold a majority in parliament to govern?

After the UKIP there is the SNP, however a Scottish vote supporting the Conservative party would be very unpopular in Scotland and would only be a “go-er” if huge concessions were given to Scotland re: power to manage on their own affairs. This then raises the question of Scottish MP’s voting on matters England and Wales, being part of a coalition.

So it’s not easy and this will create huge uncertainty as the polling date approaches.

&nbsp;

<u>1.2 - LOOKING FORWARDS:</u>

<u>MAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:</u>

<u>(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to </u><a href="http://www.forexfactory.com">www.forexfactory.com</a><u> and </u><a href="http://www.tradingeconomics.com">www.tradingeconomics.com</a><u> for more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).</u>

SUNDAY: N/A.

MONDAY: N/A.

TUESDAY: USD – Consumer Confidence.
TUESDAY: NZD – Trade Balance and ANZ Business Confidence.

WEDNESDAY: USD – Advance GDP.
WEDNESDAY: USD – FOMC Statement.
WEDNESDAY: NZD – RBNZ Rate Statement &amp; Interest Rate.

THURSDAY: JPY – BOJ Press Conference &amp; Monetary Policy Statement.
THURSDAY: EUR – CPi.
THURSDAY: CAD – GDP.
THURSDAY: CNY – Manufacturing PMi.
THURSDAY: AUD – PPi.

FRIDAY: GBP – Manufacturing PMi.
FRIDAY: USD – ISM Manufacturing PMi.

&nbsp;

<u>1.3 - LOOKING SIDEWAYS (FOR GOOD MEASURE):
</u>

<u>FOREX MARKET CONDITIONS:</u>

We are in a range bound market. Painful as it is we have to live with it, that is of course, if unlike me, you consider yourself a range trader, in which case the champagne is on you.

Last week I posted lots of charts to subscribers showing wedges, triangle patterns and lots of trend line support and resistance charts. I did not take or act upon many of the potential set-ups as they fell into place. All last week, there was a nagging feeling around the markets and nothing felt right for me<strong>. </strong>I am not sure if it was the choppiness in GOLD or the speculative moves in OIL? or perhaps it was the geopolitical news events from GREECE? I think when a major chart such as the DXY shows trend line targets in sight the market has jitters and becomes skittish, maybe that was the reason

Without doubt we need to break out of the trading ranges. From my perspective a good dose of USD strength to 102.50 should clear matters up once and for all and then we can move on.

The Central Banks around the world are also not making matters simple. We are in a currency war and it is a race to the bottom to weaken ones currency. I had thought that this would have dominated events but Central Bank importance comes and goes because we have irrational markets at times.

&nbsp;

&nbsp;
<ol start="2">
	<li><strong><u> WHAT’S ON MY MIND: -
THE FUNDAMENTAL TRADERS OVERVIEW:</u></strong></li>
</ol>
<strong> </strong>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>WHERE NEXT FOR THE CABLE?</strong></p>
Earlier in the blog in section 1.3, I wrote about the geopolitical overhang surrounding the cable regarding the General Election.

In this section of the blog I am looking more at the cable short term and medium term through to the votes being counted on May 7<sup>th</sup> at the UK General Election.

Just so you are all aware right now the PREMIUM SERVICE has a GBP/USD short trade #RT389 from 1.5175, the 161.8% Fibonacci level providing the entry point.

Short-term I am caught, thinking that the 161.8% fib will hold and this will be a top in the GBP/USD. However, I am also conscious that algorithmic events may see at test of 1.5200 with stops being taken prior to a pullback.

Overall, however I am for the reasons already written in section 1.3, bearish this pair.

We also should consider that many of the GBP cross rate pairs are also at breakout points or breakdown positions pushing resistance.

I am bearish with my FUNDAMENTAL views, your views as a reader may be Bullish cable. The one thing that I can 100% guarantee you is that there will be break one way or the other and it will happen very, very soon. It will happen prior to the election, there is way too much uncertainty for it not to and this is why I am bearish. Uncertainty usually means bearish activity.

However, I am also prepared for a break higher in the cable and the power of the commodity cross-rate pairs sucking traders into long trades only for a lot of disappointed traders to be left hanging when the bears take control as the election date looms closer.

Let me make it clear after the election I expect a bounce back in cable. The one thing that I have learnt over the past 8 years of trading is that the markets are perfect as buying or selling the news and then going completely in the opposite direction as the news breaks. With this in mind I am expecting cable to dump and then do a Lazarus or a Carrie rising again. The big $64,000.00 question is when it bounces how strong will it be?
<ol>
	<li>Down then up.</li>
	<li>Up then down then back up again</li>
</ol>
Those are my two thoughts on how cable is going to play out for the next two weeks. I wanted to put this on charts but found it quite difficult as the detail made the charts a little difficult to follow.

I have a chart included, however, I am hoping that the following will be easy to follow.

Basically, I expect a bounce after the cable fall and after the votes are counted but, the size and nature of the reverse move back higher will be defined by whether or not we have a majority or minority government. Plus in addition, we have to consider the majority party being one of Labour or Conservative as the market reactions would be different for both parties.

Using GBP/USD as a guide, I see it potentially topping at 1.5225-1.5265, but it may not even break 1.5200.

As the voting date comes closer and the banter associated with the election intensifies we could see a move lower towards 1.4750 (a move lower of about 450-500 pips). This is similar to the move that was witnessed with the Scottish Independence vote.

A majority government would provide an explosive bounce through existing highs. I think that this is almost a guarantee. In my opinion, a Conservative majority government would take us back above today’s highs. With a Labour majority government, I would not expect as strong of a bounce back, as the markets will be uncertain of Labour’s delivery of policy and perhaps cable would not get back above 1.5000, but it’s all very unclear and uncertain.

If the results give a minority government, the bounce, and true market response, may be stunted the longer it takes to get a minority coalition government in place. There is therefore more potential for a further move lower towards 1.4500 or even lower, should there be a major time delay in forming a government with multiple parties. Any bounce back after a government is formed will be measured by whether it’s the Labour or Conservative party that holds the majority position within the minority government.

However, just to further complicate matters, other events will be in play at the same time, namely GREECE and the FED possibly raising rates, and, maybe no matter what happens, with regards to the future UK government make-up the reversal move may only be a matter of 200 pips or so due to other geopolitical events and central bank activity.

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/GBPUSD-SECT2-26042015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-5841" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/GBPUSD-SECT2-26042015-1024x517.png" alt="GBPUSD SECT2 26042015" width="1024" height="517" /></a>

&nbsp;

Looking at the GBP cross rates.

The GBP/AUD for example, could have a significant move lower, we could end up sub 1.9000 around 1.8500-1.8750.

With a Labour minority government we could be as low as 1.8000. A Conservative government trying to negotiate a political partner to move forward could also see a move to 1.8000. The potential moves are rather difficult to fully take on board at the moment. But revisiting previous similar situations Forex moves will be swift and at times dramatic.

These moves will be even greater with cross rate pairs which are already traded on thinner volume; we really have to be very careful trading these pairs.

The ultimate reverse bounce back with GBP/AUD and for that matter with the GBP/CAD and GBP/NZD has the potential to be explosive as Central Bank easing from the RBA and the RBNZ in particular, will complement the reversal move higher. It would be like a double whammy effect, the potential to be very powerful. This week’s RBNZ meeting and statement will give us a better idea of where the RBNZ stand. If they are moving to a very DOVISH / ACCOMODATIVE stance this plays into a GBP/NZD long trade on the bounce.

It is a period of uncertainty with Cable and there are many possible outcomes. This makes it a dangerous pair to trade as we get closer to the election date.

The bottom line is I believe that there will be the potential for huge moves with all GBP related pairs and we should if previous similar election fallouts are repeated get two or three days of momentum and directional trading.

It should be a very interesting next couple of weeks or so.

&nbsp;
<ol start="3">
	<li><strong><u> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:

</u></strong></li>
</ol>
<strong><u>SUMMARY OF PERFORMANCE:</u></strong>

<u>3.1 – OVERVIEW and SUBSCRIPTION PRICING:</u>

For new readers who may not be aware, I refer to the PREMIUM SERVICE quite a lot in this blog and for more details about what it is, and, how much it costs, you will need to go the welcome page of <a href="http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>

At the top of the page there are three drop down menus: -

PREMIUM SERVICE PROMOTIONS (if available)
SIGN-UP
DISCLAIMER

Further details and how to join are all contained there. You will need at PayPal account to subscribe.

PREMIUM SERVICE subscription prices are below.

&nbsp;

<u>COMING SOON - SILVER &amp; GOLD - PREMIUM SERVICE MEMBER STATUS:</u>

Regular readers will be aware that during the past couple of months I have been upgrading speeds and revising content and deliverables within the PREMIUM SERVICE.

All of my subscribers were contacted for views about the potential changes and ideas moving forward. Many items have been addressed already, but, others require additional work “behind the scenes” to implement.

One of the suggestions was to create a two-tier approach to the subscription of the PREMIUM SERVICE.

Basically this is what is proposed and on the table: -

<u>GOLD MEMBER STATUS:</u>
<ul>
	<li>100% access to the PREMIUM SERVICE website.</li>
	<li>A dedicated exclusive twitter feed for GOLD subscribers only @ThePremService.</li>
	<li>All trade set-ups communicated via Twitter and RADAR and FUNDAMENTAL trades additionally via email when possible.</li>
	<li>The WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU (access to the full and complete version) delivered weekly via an emailed PDF, and, viewable on line inside the PREMIUM SERVICE secure section of <a href="http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com">weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a></li>
	<li>My thoughts and comments on market conditions via twitter.</li>
</ul>
Subscriptions costs remain as they are (see below).

<u>SILVER MEMBER STATUS:</u>
<ul>
	<li>A new dedicated exclusive twitter feed for SILVER subscribers only @PremServSilver.</li>
	<li>Limited access to the PREMIUM SERVICE website (trade information only).</li>
	<li>The WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU (the restricted version) delivered weekly via an emailed PDF and viewable online at <a href="http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com">weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a></li>
</ul>
I am hoping to launch this within the next week or so, my proposed pricing covering both GOLD &amp; SILVER subscription options is on the chart below.
<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/PS-SUBSCRIPTIONS-19042015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-5825" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/PS-SUBSCRIPTIONS-19042015.png" alt="PS SUBSCRIPTIONS 19042015" width="745" height="486" /></a>

&nbsp;

<u>3.2 - SUMMARY OF PERFORMANCE:</u>

(Only the excel spreadsheets will now be shown in this section. References to previous, present and future trades “LAST WEEK’s TRADING REVIEW” will now be provided solely for the benefit of PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers and has been moved into section 4).

<u>3.2.1 – PREMIUM SERVICE – COST INCOME ANALYSIS:

</u>
<p style="text-align: center;">EMANATING FROM TRADE SET-UPS - 2015 to date:</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><u>MICRO LOT TRADER</u> - 283 trades cost to trade = $28.30
<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 283 trades = <strong><u>$399.10</u></strong></p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><u>MINI LOT TRADER</u> - 283 trades cost to trade = $283.00
<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 283 trades = <strong><u>$3,991.00</u></strong></p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><u>STANDARD LOT TRADER</u> - 283 trades cost to trade = $2,830.00
<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 283 trades = <strong><u>$39,910.00</u></strong></p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong><u>
PLEASE NOTE:</u></strong></p>
<p style="text-align: center;">If this sort of risk/reward income opportunity interests you:
To join the PREMIUM SERVICE at the introductory level subscribe to the initial
4 week subscription and receive a 5<sup>th</sup> week FREE!!See the PROMOTIONS tab on my landing page at
<a href="http://www.weeklyfxdrivrethru.com">www.weeklyfxdrivrethru.com</a>
this offer ends as soon as the new SILVER subscription level is officially launched.</p>
&nbsp;

<u>3.2.2 - PREMIUM SERVICE - PROFIT/LOSS RATIOS:</u>

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/PS-PROFIT-LOSS-19042015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-5813" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/PS-PROFIT-LOSS-19042015.png" alt="PS PROFIT-LOSS 19042015" width="415" height="585" /></a>

&nbsp;

<u>3.2.3 - PREMIUM SERVICE - RISK/REWARD ANALYSIS:</u>

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/PS-RISK-REWARD-19042015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-5814" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/PS-RISK-REWARD-19042015.png" alt="PS RISK-REWARD 19042015" width="429" height="540" /></a>

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

<u>3.2.4 - PREMIUM SERVICE - OVERALL TRADE SUMMARY MONTH &amp; YTD:</u>
<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/PREM-SERV-PROFITS1-19042015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-5815" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/PREM-SERV-PROFITS1-19042015.png" alt="PREM SERV PROFITS1 19042015" width="462" height="424" /></a>

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/REM-SEWRV-PROFITS2-19042015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-5816" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/REM-SEWRV-PROFITS2-19042015.png" alt="REM SEWRV PROFITS2 19042015" width="456" height="442" /></a>

&nbsp;
<ol start="4">
	<li><strong><u> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBER EXCLUSIVE CONTENT:</u></strong></li>
</ol>
(Section 4 is exclusive PREMIUM SERVICE content only available to PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers)

<u>4.1 - EDUCATION:
</u>(The full list of all items and more from this section can be found in the PREMIUM SERVICE website in the Trade Essential area under the EDUCATION tab.)

<strong> </strong>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>TRADING HABITS THAT WILL HELP YOU MANAGE YOUR OPEN POSITIONS</strong></p>
When trading, actively managing open positions is just as important as coming up with your plan. Here are three tips to help you manage your active trades
<ol>
	<li><strong> KEEP IN TOUCH WITH THE MARKET.</strong></li>
</ol>
Whether you are a hardcore technical or fundamental trader, or maybe a little of both, you cannot deny that economic reports influence price action. This is why it pays to keep tabs on the events that pose risks to your trades.

Some may say that the market’s reaction to the news is more important than the news itself, but how can you make the most out of a reaction if you have no idea about the news event?

Don’t forget to always pay attention to potential game changers that might invalidate or at least divert from how you expect your trade to play out.<strong> </strong>
<ol start="2">
	<li><strong> BE FLEXIBLE WITH YOUR TRADING PLAN.</strong></li>
</ol>
It is very important to be flexible with your trading plan. Of course being “FLEXIBLE” doesn’t mean being totally spontaneous and not following your initial plan at all. It just means that you are making adjustments based on factors that have changed since you made your initial plan.

Being flexible requires you to constantly check the validity of your setups as time passes. Also, keep in mind that the longer you keep your trade open, the more you expose it to different event risks. How long did you initially plan to keep your trade open? Is your setup still valid after a few hours, days or even weeks?

Let’s say you spotted a potential for a double top on the AUD/USD as an intraday trade. You shorted at the “top” and wait for the price action to go down, but after a few trading sessions you see that the pair is just ranging near your entry level. Is your “double top” still valid or should you take your profits early?
<ol start="3">
	<li><strong> UPDATE YOUR ORDERS AND POSITION SIZES.</strong></li>
</ol>
Just because you have the ideal risk-reward ratio and the “fool-proof” trading plan doesn’t mean that you shouldn’t also tweak your order levels and position sizes. Remember you want to minimize your risk.

If one or two factors in your trading plan don’t go your way but you think your idea still has merit, you might want to cut back on your position sizes. On the other hand, if you find that the price action turned out to be better than what you expected, you could also consider adjusting your stop losses or taking partial profits. It would be a lot better if these adjustments were included in your initial trading plan in the first place, but better late than unprofitable, right?

Keep these three simple tips in mind when you trade so you don’t end up wasting your well-thought out trading plans. Before you know it, these practices will have already turned into habits.

&nbsp;

<u>4.2 – THE PREMIUM SERVICE – TRADING REVIEW:</u>

I have spoken at length with several subscribers last week about the current market conditions and I also had a webinar with my peer group of traders earlier this week.

Basically, I can sum everything that was discussed as follows: -

<em>“We are in a “DAY TRADING” environment with just very few exceptions. It is a take the money and run market”.</em>

Without doubt the profit per trade is different, compared with that of 2014. With regards to pips generated this year, the PREMIUM SERVICE is by some miracle, because, I am not enjoying trading this year as much as last year, ahead of those achieved in 2014.

Trading is hard this year. As I have said, and no doubt you have read various articles from different sources also, the liquidity in the FX markets is now lower than before. This results in some rather strange moves that when added to the fact we are in a range trading environment with false breaks with lower and higher out of ranges being the norm. So is it any wonder traders are losing money and getting caught more often than not on the wrong side of trades? Hence, we have shorter time framed trades with less $$$ per trade being earned as a result.

I want to mention RISK OFF.

Last year, we had comments every trading day about the markets being RISK AVERSE or RISK ON and RISK OFF. This year because we have basically had a one sided market RISK OFF has hardly been mentioned.

I believe that this will change very soon. Price action in the USD/JPY is weird and lacks correlation with equities more times than not.

The inter-market correlations are catching my eyes once again as markets are being stretched. At the extremes, this adds to market volatility and creates uncertainty. The one-sided market has to end soon and at the extremes would seem to be the levels that create hesitation and FEAR of buying at the highs. The GREED factor then enters to ensure that as much $$$$ are pocketed. Just some food for thought as we move forward. This will then bring RISK OFF back into play.

&nbsp;

<u>4.3 - THE PREMIUM SERVICE - EXISTING LIVE TRADES:</u>
<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/PS-LIVE-TRADES-190420151.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-5823" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/PS-LIVE-TRADES-190420151.png" alt="PS LIVE TRADES 19042015" width="724" height="506" /></a>

&nbsp;

<u>4.4 - THE PREMIUM SERVICE – EXISTING LIMIT ORDERS:</u>

&nbsp;

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/PS-LIMIT-ORDERS-190420151.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-5822" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/PS-LIMIT-ORDERS-190420151.png" alt="PS LIMIT ORDERS 19042015" width="707" height="407" /></a>

<u>PLEASE NOTE:</u>

Remember position sizes for suggested FUNDAMENTAL TRADES should be much smaller than usual, maybe only 20%-25% of your normal trading position size. It is only when we add to our positions that the fun begins. All FUNDAMENTAL trades posted via email contain a second page with details of where I will add trades and when and where stops are moved, the Stair Stepping Stop Protection (SSSP) is self-explanatory and I hope useful. Using this grows your trading position and helps protect the profits made, should the trade gain traction. In addition, I have added some detail on my HEDGING approach as well to the second FUNDAMENTAL TRADE alert page. More detailed information on HEDGING can be found inside the PREMIUM SERVICE website under the EDUCATION tab – Trading Essentials.

I view the commodity cross-rate pairs, which form the basis of my FUNDAMENTAL TRADE SET-UPS as bonus trades away from the USD majors and over the year they can be very profitable. This is why I have a separate broker account for commodity cross-RATE PAIR trades. It gives me an immediate measurement of performance without the need to extrapolate data.

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

<u>4.5 - POTENTIAL TRADES - WHAT CHARTS AM I LOOKING AT?</u>

(This section usually contains charts mainly relating to non-USD majors, in particular the ones that I am working on and looking at because they catch my eye that may become potential trades in the trading sessions ahead. If there are no comments beneath the charts, my comments / thoughts are written on them directly. I will tweet and email as soon as these possible trades become LIMIT ORDERS)

<u>THIS WEEKS OVERVIEW:</u>

There are not as many charts this week. I am waiting on GREECE to be sorted out. The EUR crosses do not interest me for now and coming closer to voting in the UK, the GBP crosses are falling back in priority.

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/USDJPY-60M-26042015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-5840" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/USDJPY-60M-26042015-1024x517.png" alt="USDJPY 60M 26042015" width="1024" height="517" /></a>

&nbsp;

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/AUDUSD-60M-26042015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-5839" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/AUDUSD-60M-26042015-1024x517.png" alt="AUDUSD 60M 26042015" width="1024" height="517" /></a>

&nbsp;

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/EURGBP-240M-26042015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-5838" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/EURGBP-240M-26042015-1024x517.png" alt="EURGBP 240M 26042015" width="1024" height="517" /></a>

&nbsp;

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/EURJPY-240M-26042015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-5837" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/EURJPY-240M-26042015-1024x517.png" alt="EURJPY 240M 26042015" width="1024" height="517" /></a>

&nbsp;

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/GBPAUD-W-26042015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-5836" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/GBPAUD-W-26042015-1024x517.png" alt="GBPAUD W 26042015" width="1024" height="517" /></a>

&nbsp;

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/GBPCHF-D-26042015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-5835" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/GBPCHF-D-26042015-1024x517.png" alt="GBPCHF D 26042015" width="1024" height="517" /></a>

&nbsp;

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/GBPNZD-W-26042015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-5834" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/GBPNZD-W-26042015-1024x517.png" alt="GBPNZD W 26042015" width="1024" height="517" /></a>

&nbsp;

<u>4.6 - MAJOR TRADING PAIRS WITH LONGER-TERM TRENDS MATCHING:</u>

The following currency pairs have Short Term (DAILY), Medium Term (WEEKLY) and Long Term (MONTHLY) charts all trending in the same direction.

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/TRENDING-PAIRS-19042015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-5824" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/TRENDING-PAIRS-19042015.png" alt="TRENDING PAIRS 19042015" width="412" height="536" /></a>

&nbsp;

<u>4.7 - THE KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS</u><strong><u>:
</u></strong>(The reviews in the section are accompanied with weekly charts of the USD majors)

<strong>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.0868.</strong>

We are still in a very wide trading range of 1.0470 to 1.1050. As the geopolitical news about GREECE continues to roll on in the media with what seems to be a plethora of alternative deadline dates being quoted as the “FINAL, FINAL ABSOLUTELY BLOODY FINAL DATE”, the pressure intensifies on a resolution being sought.

For now however, I am going to stay sidelined until a resolution is made public. Sometimes your best trades are the ones that you do NOT take.

The immediate support and resistance is probably 1.0790 to 1.0925.

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/EURUSD-W-26042015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-5831" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/EURUSD-W-26042015-1024x517.png" alt="EURUSD W 26042015" width="1024" height="517" /></a>

<strong> </strong>

<strong> </strong>

<strong>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.5186</strong>.

I talked about the engulfing candle last week, and ignored it myself. This pair moved up about 200 pips in the past 7 days. That is 500 pips in the past 14 days…..hmmmn.

From last week:-

<em>“A weekly engulfing candle is huge for the “big hitters” like the FX banks and the large fund managers / institutional traders as they plan their trading week ahead. It is cable be careful. Nevertheless I am expecting a test of the 61.8% Fibonacci on the back of momentum trading alone and this is at 1.5180. This is assuming that we can break back above 1.5000”.</em>

Not a bad prediction, where did we close the week 1.5186 versus 1.5180? These Fibonacci levels do work.

This week, I am expecting a pullback as we edge closer to the UK election. The trading range should be support around 1.5050 and resistance a little higher at 1.5260. What worries me though is a massive squeeze higher prior to the mother of all pullbacks during the week of May 7<sup>th</sup> (election week).

&nbsp;

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/GBPUSD-W-26042015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-5830" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/GBPUSD-W-26042015-1024x517.png" alt="GBPUSD W 26042015" width="1024" height="517" /></a>

<strong> </strong>

<strong>AUD/USD: Closing Price 0.7813</strong>.

I am struggling with this pair at the moment.

I see a top at 0.7840 and this held on Friday, whether it hold this week is debatable. However, at the back of my mind are weakening Iron Ore prices, commodity prices GOLD and COPPER under pressure, and, the RBA looking to cut rates. This pair should be closer to 0.7000 rather than 0.8000. So I am still bearish.

We are range bound for now, and what I wrote last week is still valid: –

<em>“The weekly chart below looks bullish; however we are heading up to the first barrier of resistance at 0.7850. Support is back at 0.7740”.</em>

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/AUDUSD-W-26042015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-5832" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/AUDUSD-W-26042015-1024x517.png" alt="AUDUSD W 26042015" width="1024" height="517" /></a>

&nbsp;

<strong>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.7583</strong>.

Deputy RBNZ governor Mc Dermott was quoted last week basically stating that the RBNZ were cancelling proposed rate hikes and moving to a more accommodative position.

Now… remember this guy works for Mr. Indecisive none other than Graeme Wheeler who has two hands that act independently of each other 100% of the time. How he puts on a shirt in the morning must be quite amusing. (Just saying!)

We have the RBNZ interest rate announcement and policy statement this coming Wednesday. I am really looking forward to this after the FOMC statement. We need to see some clarity from the RBNZ and not the “Greenspan” approach to communication. We may see a surprise rate cut on Wednesday, but I would not at this stage be mortgaging the house on this eventuality.

The range that I am working with is 0.7520 to 0.7640

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/NZDUSD-W-26042015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-5829" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/NZDUSD-W-26042015-1024x517.png" alt="NZDUSD W 26042015" width="1024" height="517" /></a>

<strong> </strong>

<strong> </strong>

<strong>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.2153.</strong>

I think that 1.2000 is sucking this pair lower. I have my Armageddon trade set up to go long at 1.1950. It looks a way off but do not be fooled, we had a wash out of longs at 1.2350. Now it looks like the market is determined to take out institutional traders that have stops lined up just below the psychological level of 1.2000. After the flush out, I hope that 1.1950 will hold to establish a long trade.

For the coming few days I see support at 1.2075 and resistance at 1.2350.

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/USDCAD-W-24042015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-5828" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/USDCAD-W-24042015-1024x517.png" alt="USDCAD W 24042015" width="1024" height="517" /></a>

<strong> </strong>

<strong>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.9499</strong>.

No real change week on week with regards to the closing price. However, this does NOT tell the story of the ride off the lows at 0.9500 up to 0.9720 and then back again to where we started inside 72 hours.

There is a danger being long this pair as a GREECE solution is sought from capital flows but the -0.75% interest rate should stop a lot of that movement. But, where does the money go if not to the CHF?

I have my Armageddon trade placed at 0.9450 to go long…..it may not be low enough!!

The SNB are looking to move the currency, they have all but said this recently. The EUR/CHF is closer to parity than 1.1000; the GBP/CHF is closer to 1.4000 than 1.7500.

Do not rule out a Thomas Jordan (SNB Governor) return in the PEG II.

I see support at 0.9490 then 0.9450 with resistance at 0.9650 then 0.9720.

&nbsp;

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/USDCHF-W-26042015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-5827" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/USDCHF-W-26042015-1024x517.png" alt="USDCHF W 26042015" width="1024" height="517" /></a>

<strong> </strong>

<strong>USD/JPY: Closing Price 118.95. </strong>

No change from last week, and the week before for that matter. For three weeks we have closed around this level only to bounce up in the early week trading.

My same comments as last week are still valid: -

<em>“Support at 115.60 and resistance at 122.00, however, we are starting to make a move towards the lower end of the range. I do not want to have everyone getting over excited but my thoughts are that with bond yield moving the pressure on the USD/JPY is intensifying and a move lower is inevitable if the correlation with U.S. treasuries sticks”.</em>

Immediate support is at 118.20 and resistance back at 119.50.

&nbsp;

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/USDJPY-W-26042015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-5833" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/USDJPY-W-26042015-1024x517.png" alt="USDJPY W 26042015" width="1024" height="517" /></a>

&nbsp;

&nbsp;
<ol start="5">
	<li><strong><u> THE CONCLUSION - MY FINAL THOUGHTS:</u></strong></li>
</ol>
<u>5.1 - SUBSCRIBING TO THE “FREE VERSION” OF THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU:</u>

If you like what you have almost completed reading and want to have THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU delivered direct to your email inbox next week, here is what you do: -

Go to my website: - <a href="http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>

On the right hand side of the welcome page under my bio “about me” there is a blue box titled SUBSCRIBE TO FREE NEWSLETTER, click on profile and add your email address. It is as simple and straightforward as that.

I do NOT sell your email data to anyone…do not worry...one less thing to worry about!

&nbsp;

<u>5.2 –TRADING TIPS &amp; THOUGHTS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD: </u>

The major news events this week are the FOMC statement, and the RBNZ statement. USD - GDP and Consumer Confidence also stand out, as well as CAD - GBP and AUD - PPi, plus other PMi data is also on the calendar.

Add to this the on-going GREECE situation and the UK election and we have quite a few subjects to keep us glued to our computer screens.

With GREECE seemingly on the cusp of something, not quite certain what, any open trades or fresh trades placed with EUR or CHF pairs should be monitored very closely. Frankly, it may just be better to leave the EUR and CHF well alone until the GREEK situation is concluded one way or another. This is easier said than done as the desire to trade inside volatility can be too much for many traders to resist.

Basically, we will trade. But we need to be aware of the factors around us that can affect pricing in an instant. As expected, I suggest that you trade smaller position sizes with wider stops to cope with the volatility.

We will have opportunities to make $$$, we just have to be alert and careful.

As always, there will be trades to trade and there will be some great opportunities, please trade in line with your RISK MANAGEMENT parameters from your TRADING PLAN. If you do not have a TRADE PLAN, in my opinion, you should, as this will help you with consistency.
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>Consistency = longevity in trading and that is a critical goal.
IT IS THE KEY MEASUREMENT</strong></p>
Before you enter a trade work out the risk, price it in $$$. Place your stop accordingly. PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers have a full library of information on RISK MANAGEMENT, RISK TOLERANCES and POSITION SIZING etc. available for reference 24x7.

Take care.

Scott Pickering
The Pip Accumulator
Sunday April 26th 2015

EMAIL / FOLLOW ME AT:
premiumservice@weeklyfxdrivethru.com
Twitter: @pipaccumulator
Twitter: @ThePremService
Google+/scottpickering
Tumblr: thepipaccumulator

&nbsp;

<u>VIEWS AND COMMENTS IN THIS BLOG:</u><u> </u>

All the comments and views expressed in my blog are my thoughts and ideas only. They are based on my FUNDAMENTAL views of the markets and my thoughts on the individuals concerned on how they manage positions in the public domain. In addition, I have my own thoughts and views about what I think goes on behind closed doors. You should NOT base any trade ideas on my thoughts and views alone. As I have said on many occasions in my blog, I am a FUNDAMENTAL trader first, then a TECHNICAL trader second using chart analysis to establish what I believe to be excellent trade entry positions. However, you must make up your own mind and trade at your own risk deciding if the entry levels I refer to actually meet with your views and thoughts. This makes complete sense as the risk in trading your account is 100% owned by you.

<u>THIRD PARTY COMPANIES WITH BANNERS ON MY WEBSITE:</u>

There are a small number of companies with banners on my website. In the interests of full disclosure I have a reciprocal business arrangement with these companies to promote their products.
Unlike many of my competitors, I use the products and services provided by these companies. I will NOT allow any third party on my website unless I am 100% happy that they can back up their promise. By virtue of the fact, I work with these companies almost daily. I am more than confident to have them advertise on my website. Any reader who buys products or services from any advertiser via a banner on my website, <a href="http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> will automatically have my help and assistance with any issues that they may have with my partnered advertisers.

<u>TRADING &amp; PERFORMANCES DISCLAIMER:</u>

FLASH, RADAR and FUNDAMENTAL trade set-ups, “Tweets” and “Trade ideas” that are posted in my blogs or on Twitter are trades and set-ups that interest me. They are provided for training and informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as an offer, solicitation or recommendation of any specific security or investment strategy. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading Forex carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade any such leveraged products you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin, and seek advice from an independent financial adviser if you have any doubts.