<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>CENTRAL BANK ANNOUNCEMENTS</strong>
<strong> 21<sup>st</sup> September 2016</strong>
<strong> (BOJ, FOMC and RBNZ)</strong></p>

<ol>
 	<li><strong> INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>
</ol>
So for whatever reason we have what is being called in some quarters the most important FOMC meeting of 2016.

In addition, just a few hours earlier, we have what is being called the line in the sand meeting for the BOJ.

Then finally after the FOMC we have those awfully nice chaps from the RBNZ having a gathering serving fine wines from the Marlborough and Central Otago regions accompanied by some canapes for all in attendance as they discuss under leadership of Graeme Wheeler the state of the New Zealand economy. What is said by Wheeler and what the RBNZ would like or want will if all goes as normal have the opposite effect on the direction of the NZD$. I hope that I am incorrect with this statement but this is usually what happens. Just a statement this time, no press conference but apparently refreshments are served?

Why am I releasing a blog on a Tuesday night / Wednesday morning and NOT the usual Saturday?

Very simple… it is my birthday at the weekend and I am being whisked away and I will not return until early next week. This day of Central Bank news is so important for the run to the end of the of the year, I thought it made sense to place my thoughts and trade ideas in print.

Onwards and upwards…

To remind you, you could be the next winner of a free PREMIUM SERVICE subscription; if you subscribe to receive this free blog via my website <a href="http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a><strong>  </strong>

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The next draw will be late September and the winner will be set up for the month of October.

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<strong> </strong>
<ol start="3">
 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>
</ol>
<strong>LAST WEEK’S NEWS – MY THOUGHTS:</strong>

Based upon the fact that the main news events of the week are still ahead of us, I am using this section on this occasion to write about a trading event; the drop in cable.

Last Friday the cable moved over 200 pips lower and on Monday we had a bounce to the 38% retracement to the penny at 1.3092 and then we have seen the fall continue (see chart below).

&nbsp;

<a href="http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/GBPUSD-720M-20.09.2016.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-8363" src="http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/GBPUSD-720M-20.09.2016-1024x476.png" alt="gbpusd-720m-20-09-2016" width="1024" height="476" /></a>

It looks like cable can still go lower, trend line support is at 1.2920 (see chart below) and then beyond there we are into Fibonacci extensions to 1.2800 and lower.

<a href="http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/GBPUSD-D-21092016.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-8364" src="http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/GBPUSD-D-21092016-1024x476.png" alt="gbpusd-d-21092016" width="1024" height="476" /></a>

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

The cable looks incredibly weak and one cannot rule out a run to 1.2500.

Why has this drop happened?

There was no real news as far as I can see to create this size of a move other than BREXIT talk and exit strategies are intensifying and therefore this could have been the only catalyst. I have read that some “pundits” believe it more of a re-balancing ahead of the FOMC and BOJ, personally, I am not that convinced.  The one thing I do know is that below 1.3500 we are at multi-decade lows and that in itself is bearish. Once we broke below 1.3500 we have done nothing more than consolidate the move lower and therefore a continuation of trend was at some time inevitable.

For my subscribers I will be looking to re-establish BREXIT OPPORTUNITY trades later this week, and certainly next week when the U.S. position is clearer.

<strong> </strong>
<ol start="4">
 	<li><strong> MARKET OPINION:</strong></li>
</ol>
<strong>(</strong><strong>FORWARDS, BACKWARDS and SIDEWAYS) </strong><strong>WHAT IS FLOATING MY BOAT AT THE MOMENT:</strong>

&nbsp;
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>CENTRAL BANK ANNOUNCEMENTS</strong>
<strong> 21<sup>st</sup> September 2016</strong>
<strong> (BOJ, FOMC and RBNZ)</strong></p>
&nbsp;

This is it.

Will it be a big day or will it be a non-event?

I can guarantee ahead of all three announcements there will be a lot of volatility, so the first thing to say is that ALL TRADES that are open should either be covered or very well justified for holding on to them. Stops will get taken no matter how liberal you believe them to be. I have witnessed over recent months on big news announcements over 150 pip ranges highs to lows ahead of the data being released. This will be no different and it could even be more extreme particularly for the BOJ announcement as this happens at a time when the market lacks full liquidity.

So what’s going to happen?

I have no idea as its all opinion driven ahead of the data and opinions are just that - opinions. More importantly for me as a trader how am I going to be set up, what are trades that I am going to focus on?
BOJ:

I have no live trades or limit orders going into their announcement in a few hours based upon the time this blog was posted.

There are plenty of rumours circulating from “Helicopter Money” to extending “Negative interest rates” to even “increasing rates”!

All I know is that this will be a volatile event.

If the BOJ does nothing or is NOT convincing for the markets the JPY will strengthen like crazy and 100.00 in USD/JPY will come under threat very quickly. The question that is always raised is, will they intervene?. If the BOJ created the run to sub 100.00 it is an event of their own making and frankly I just cannot see any intervention at all unless we see a parabolic move lower and given the FOMC will announce hours later, this is unlikely but frankly NOT impossible.

If the BOJ is successful in weakening the Yen, which is their goal and the USD/JPY starts moving above trend line resistance at 103.50 and heads towards 107.00 (see chart below from last week’s DRIVE THRU blog), not only will the BOJ be satisfied but this move would also naturally strengthen the USD going into the FOMC announcement.

<a href="http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/USDJPY-D-21092016.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-8368" src="http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/USDJPY-D-21092016-1024x476.png" alt="usdjpy-d-21092016" width="1024" height="476" /></a>

&nbsp;

My thoughts are given the history, the markets do not believe the BOJ or Prime Minister Abe and are not convinced, despite the enormity of the stimulus program already in place, that it is enough to stimulate the Japanese economy.

The Japanese economy is in such poor shape and so much has been tried and failed. I can see resignations on the horizon if this effort later fails.

From a trading perspective….

Looking at the USD/JPY, 100.00 albeit quite a bit way from current pricing is key support and a break through 103.60 is key resistance to the upside.

If I am awake and at my screens for this announcement I will be looking at USD/JPY and GBP/JPY to trade. I have chosen the GBP/JPY as it is presently very weak and should the BOJ disappoint this will be a good pair to focus on.

&nbsp;

FOMC (FED):

The dove of all doves takes the stage about 12 hours after the BOJ.

Janet Yellen will in my opinion provide the markets with a few reasons why she is NOT raising rates this time but she will also provide the markets with a few reasons why the December FOMC meeting should be treated a “LIVE” event.

I have written in previous blogs and on twitter that being a dove is so easy compared to being a hawk. Doves can always find excuses for not doing something.

This is the way that Yellen runs the FED, protect “Wall Street” at all costs no surprises telegraph every move. My gut wishes that she would raise now and just get it over with, but my brain tells me she won’t and she has plenty of data to call upon to stall the markets for a few more months.

If the FED holds rates, it’s all about the “verbals” in the statement and her tone in the press conference.

If she holds and the December meeting is not “LIVE:” the USD will get taken to the woodshed and we could see the EUR/USD at 1.1400 and beyond in coming sessions.

If she holds and December is a “LIVE” meeting, I think that the EUR/USD will spike above 1.1200 to around 1.1300 with a bit of luck to short at that elevated level.

If she does the unthinkable and cuts the EUR/USD will be heading towards 1.0750 in the coming sessions and the USD will strengthen and go up as fast as a rat up a drainpipe.

I include the EUR/USD chart (below) from last weekend’s DRIVE THRU blog showing 1.1286 as resistance and 1.0950 as the first level of big support to break through.

&nbsp;

<a href="http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/EURUSD-D-21092016.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-8361" src="http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/EURUSD-D-21092016-1024x476.png" alt="eurusd-d-21092016" width="1024" height="476" /></a>

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

RBNZ:

The chaps from the RBNZ are on last, a couple of hours or so after the Janet Yellen would have completed her press conference.

I am expecting nothing. Just pure drivel about how the economy is not in their control and how exterior prices cannot be managed and that on what they can manage they are doing a bang up job. That's it, nothing more nothing less. It is just a statement this time no press conference but I do believe journalists are invited for a soiree prior to the announcement. Not sure if my leg was being pulled in that regard but, in my opinion it is totally believable.

Looking at the daily NZD/USD chart below 0.7240 is a massive line in the sand, which will set up a big move lower and to the top side 0.7500 is huge. We are in the range between the supporting trend line and the horizontal resistance.

<a href="http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/NZDUSD-D-21092016.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-8365" src="http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/NZDUSD-D-21092016-1024x476.png" alt="nzdusd-d-21092016" width="1024" height="476" /></a>

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

SUMMARY:

I have the feeling after lots of volatility these three Central bank announcements could all be non-events for actual news that drives the market. I hope that I am incorrect but there is so much anticipation and more often than not this type of anticipation is usually dealt as “BUY THE RUMOUR and SELL THE NEWS”. Only time will tell if this is the case on this occasion.

I have my plan which will be outlined in the next section for PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers. Hopefully I will be able to trade it in some shape after the information has been delivered.

<strong> </strong>
<ol start="5">
 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBER EXCLUSIVE CONTENT AREA:</strong></li>
</ol>
&nbsp;
<ol start="6">
 	<li><strong> ON THE HORIZON… WHATS COMING UP THIS WEEK:</strong><strong> </strong></li>
</ol>
<u>THIS WEEK’S FOREX NEWS THAT INTERESTS ME:</u>

(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market other than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to <a href="http://www.forexfactory.com">www.forexfactory.com</a> and <a href="http://www.tradingeconomics.com">www.tradingeconomics.com</a> for a more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).

SUNDAY: N/A.

MONDAY: N/A.

TUESDAY: N/A.

WEDNESDAY: BOJ – Monetary Policy Statement &amp; Press Conference..
WEDNESDAY: USD – FED Statement and Press Conference.
WEDNESDAY: NZD – RBNZ (The Chaps) Rate Statement.

THURSDAY: EUR – Mario Draghi (ECB President) speaks.

FRIDAY: CAD – Core CPi and Core Retail Sales.
<u>THE USD MAJORS – MY THOUGHTS (A REVIEW): </u>

(In this section I have as usual kept my charts as minimalist as possible. With regards to charting in my opinion less is more!! I hope that they are clear. All readers regardless of level of experience should be able to follow my thoughts from my comments to the levels on the charts with ease)

My comments are contained on the charts.- (no charts midweek)

EUR/USD - Weekly Closing Price:

GBP/USD - Weekly Closing Price:

AUD/USD - Weekly Closing Price:

NZD/USD - Weekly Closing Price:

USD/CAD - Weekly Closing Price:

USD/CHF - Weekly Closing Price:

USD/JPY - Weekly Closing Price:

<u> </u>

<u>MY CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>

If you are going to trade the central bank news releases as they come up remember that you may have impact from announcements that follow. Be careful and take it easy. Sometimes it is best to wait to see that the direction is confirmed.

As usual…

Always remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.

Take care,

Scott Pickering
The Pip Accumulator
<a href="http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>

DATE: 21st September 2016
BLOG VERSION: PREMIUM SERVICE #112