(3201,1,'2014-02-08 11:02:04','2014-02-08 16:02:04','WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU\r\n08.02.2014\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">1. INTRODUCTION:</span></b>\r\n\r\nWell, that was a very difficult week to understand at times.\r\n\r\nThe three major news events in the week that interested me had me a little confused and perplexed:\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">RBA Interest Rate Announcement and Statement:</span>\r\n\r\nInterest rates were left unchanged, this was strongly believed to be what would happen so there were no surprises but I found the policy statement a little confusing.\r\nFor the past few months RBA Governor Stevens had been talking down AUD strength and even went so far as to say that an exchange rate level of about 0.8500 would be a reasonable level as far as the Central Bank was concerned.\r\nNow we witness an about turn, we are all bullish again, and things were maybe not so bad as we had been saying for the past few months. The comment in the press release regarding currency guidance has now been removed.\r\nThe result on this RBA “Hallelujah moment” (positive view) was that the AUD/USD rallied from near critical support levels of 0.8660 back towards 0.8900.\r\nThis move offers up the potential for some great entries short again in the near future if the equities markets sell off.\r\nThe downside of this change in RBA sentiment from a personal viewpoint were that my FUNDAMENTAL AUD and NZD (in sympathy) cross-rate trades, were whacked across the board, and I decided to exit with losses.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">ECB Interest Rate and Press Conference:</span>\r\n\r\nOnce again I found the market reaction to Draghi’s comments a little strange to say the least. I am commenting later in the blog about this particular news event.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls:</span>\r\n\r\nAnother big miss, that’s two months in a row. As usual with NFP there is an instant ‘Knee-jerk” reaction probably in line with your thinking……then it turns and runs off in the opposite direction. It did exactly this once again, futures took a poor number on the chin and then they rallied back hard to end the day 23.59 points (1.33%) positive.\r\nIf you get suckered into move it can be very costly. I tweeted several times across both ‘Twitter Accounts” not to get suckered. I hope that you didn’t.\r\nSo the big question is of course, is the U.S. economy as strong as we are being told and is the FED on its tapering course no matter what because the cost of an expanding balance sheet through QE is having minimal effect and we are in economic terms seeing a decreasing returns to scale. By that I mean, what has QE (Quantitative Easing) actually done apart from give the greed of Wall Street support. What has it done for unemployment and housing?\r\n\r\nThe ramifications of two jobs misses will be debated for the next few weeks…watch this space.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">2. THE VIEW FROM MY TRADING DESK:</span></b>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b> </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>DESPITE THE FACT DRAGHI DID NOTHING NEW TO HELP\r\nTHE EUROZONE PERIPHERY OR TACKLE DEFLATION THE EURO RALLIED!</b></p>\r\nAnother classic ECB press conference; I am now of the opinion, and maybe I am the last person to acknowledge this, but it’s not about what Draghi says, it’s more about what he doesn’t say.\r\n\r\nHoly mother of God, the Eurozone is suffering from DEFLATION. Eminent European economists are talking about it quite openly now. Not only does Draghi ignore DEFLATION, he’s sh** scarred to even utter the word, he uses DIS-INFLATION instead. Does he think we are nuts? It is what it is!\r\n\r\nLast Thursday just prior to Draghi pulling up his chair to the table the EUR/USD was trading sub 1.3500. By the time the press conference was completed it rallied from sub 1.3500, through 1.3500 and 1.3600 towards 1.3620…wowie!!\r\n\r\nIs everything in the Eurozone just fantastic?\r\n\r\nTo be fair, some data has improved and Draghi acknowledged the positive encouraging signs in the areas of recovery and the modest pickup in consumer demand, rise in confidence and stable savings rates across the Eurozone.\r\n\r\nAs far as was concerned, or did I miss this news? Isn’t the Eurozone in a bias to ease mode? In the press conference Draghi never mentioned ‘Emerging markets” concerns, worries about inflation, basic monetary conditions or the general pathetic Eurozone economic outlook. Having examined his comments last month and compared them to this latest presentation they were pretty much the same. All I can think is that the EUR bears just looked on as Draghi ignored worries about Eurozone growth and inflation; hence the rally.\r\n\r\nI think Draghi’s very modest referral to a more positive outlook just took the EUR/USD through 1.3600.\r\n\r\nDraghi still talked about the future concerns in the Eurozone being inflation or unwarranted market tightening as being triggers for further additional monetary actions from the ECB. The bottom line I suppose was he made it clear that the ECB was in no rush to increase any stimulus and he is no closer to easing, these things alone were probably enough to send the EUR higher.\r\n\r\nThe elephant in the room at the press conference is DEFLATION. Every economist is so scared of saying that the Eurozone is in DEFLATION for fears of the Eurozone mirroring what happened in Japan.\r\n\r\nThe best quote I found during the week was from Gilles Moec, chief European economist at Deutsche Bank.\r\n<p align=\"center\"><i>“We don’t know if we’re in deflation now, but we cannot afford to take the risk. The problem is that it’s very hard to know you’re in it, and usually when you do, it’s too late. That’s what Japan found”</i></p>\r\nThe Eurozone consumer prices were 0.7% higher in January (year on year) which matched the record low from October 2013. The ECB target is just below 2%. Why the big fear?\r\n\r\nIf a lack of inflation (DEFLATION or disinflation) takes hold, it leads to a decline in the following, the general level of pricing, it undermines growth, it has an effect on and lowers corporate earnings and it affects asset values, like real estate. If economies are burdened this way as pretty much all of the Eurozone is, DEFLATION can drive a downward spiral, in which borrowers are bankrupted by their inability to repay loans on assets that have dropped in value. It’s a nightmare. This happened in Japan, where land prices fell dramatically since the early 1990’s with catastrophic consequences for banks and companies, never mind ordinary individuals.\r\n\r\nInflation basically erodes the real value of loans, making it easier for borrowers to repay, DEFLATION does the opposite. It places stress on banks. Do you think all the Eurozone banks are ready for DEFLATION? Why is yet another bank stress test on the way?\r\n\r\nWhichever way you want to view this, Greece and Cyprus have been issuing price declines, and Portugal, Spain and Ireland are not that far away from zero. Even the Eurozone power-house Germany is haunted as prices there rose just 1.2% last month (year on year).\r\n\r\nHowever, Draghi did nothing to address DEFLATION concerns. He has said in the past that the ECB would consider all the tools at its disposal to fight DEFLATION. But he has also said that there is nothing to fear. He line is “The risks of DELATION or inflation are limited at this point of time”.\r\n\r\nInteresting…\r\n\r\nHere is my list from last week’s blog on my view on the issues that the ECB still has to fix, a week on and having had a chance to do something nothing has been done: -\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<p align=\"center\"><i>UNEMPLOYMENT (in particular youth unemployment)</i></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><i>DEFLATION</i></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><i>BANK LIQUIDITY (yet another stress test is being planned)</i></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><i>BANKING STRENGTH (The long awaited banking union)\r\nPERIPHERY GROWTH\r\nRESTORE MARKET CONFIDENCE IN HOUSING MARKETS</i></p>\r\nI still think that a Eurozone crisis is needed to bring matters to a head.\r\n\r\nA crisis will add fuel to USD strength and drive the EUR/USD towards 1.3000 and possibly below.\r\n\r\nDraghi, with Merkel (in Berlin) pulling his strings will procrastinate and say things are in-line with expectations. The backdrop is Germany has the chequebook and does not want the invoices to fix the Eurozone as well. I totally get it.\r\n\r\nAs a trader I want a Eurozone crisis….\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">3. LOOKING FORWARD…THE KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS:</span></b>\r\n\r\n<b>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3634.</b>  Despite all the shenanigans during the week we ended only 40 pips lower than last week. We had a major sell off and two bullish events and we still did not break the trading range of 1.3475 to 1.3650, although we are very close to resistance. Early next week we should know if we are are we heading back towards 1.4000 or aiming lower towards 1.3000. This pair holds the key to the currency moves ahead. I really hope that these trading ranges will break soon; it is becoming a little boring. The S&amp;P needs to hold resistance at 1800. At this level I think that there is a good chance that we turn lower once again.\r\n\r\n<b>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.6410.  </b>I have very similar comments regarding cable as I just wrote about the EUR/USD. We saw about a 60 pip reduction in the past week.  At the start of the day on NFP (Friday) I had in mind that a short at around 1.6400 in cable would be a good entry. We will have to wait into the start of next week to re-assess the position. The next stopping point upwards is 1.6500-1.6520 and support lies at 1.6250. I may well issue a FLASH trade tweet about cable short early next week. Recent economic data from the UK has been rather muted and it looks like a downside move may be on the cards once the bullishness of NFP is out of the way.\r\n\r\n<b>AUD/USD: Closing Price 0.8958</b>.  I think that we are in a bullish trend at the moment with this pair. I am viewing this move as just a better entry price to head lower once again. Equities will have a lot to say about the future moves I think. Should the S&amp;P rollover at 1800 the AUD/USD should follow. Looking at the charts I think that we may see a run to the psychological 0.9000, maybe resistance as high as 0.9200. Big support is at 0.8876 and then below at 0.8750.\r\n\r\n<b>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8293</b>.  Probably in sympathy will the AUD/USD this pair has held up very well in the past week. Like the GBP/USD just before NFP, I had in my mind that 0.8300 would be a great area to look to short. Once again early next week there could be a FLASH trade alert on this pair.  In addition and like the AUD/USD, equities will point us in the correct direction with regards to this pair. At the moment, I think we may test levels a little higher towards 0.8400. Support is really good at 0.8185.\r\n\r\n<b>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.1032.</b>  I think that the CAD currency is quite weak at the moment and should we break out through 1.1125; we should see 1.1200 pretty soon. Support is good at 1.0950.\r\n\r\n<b>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.8982</b>.  We are bouncing around in a range of 0.9850 to 0.9080. We need this range to break to give us direction. I think that it is pointless looking at this pair to trade at the moment.\r\n\r\n<b>USD/JPY: Closing Price 102.31. </b> With all the movement, we only moved down one pip in the week! We have however consolidated at a lower level and this fact should not be missed. Moving forward the range is basically what it has been all week 101.75 to 102.80.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">4. THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</span></b>\r\n\r\nAs there are always new readers of this blog each week, I thought that I should mention the subscriber based option of the WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU that has been in existence now since the beginning of 2014; THE PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\nIt is an honest blog containing trade set-ups, profitable and losing trades, my ideas and thoughts and it also has for an instant communication to subscribers a dedicated protected TWITTER feed. All trades (profitable and losing) are monitored and recorded within the secure section of the WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU website.\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU:\r\n</span></b>(helping you to trade more consistently) <b></b>\r\n\r\n</p><p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">PREMIUM SERVICE   </span></b>\r\n\r\n</p><p align=\"center\">Are you a part-time forex trader?</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">Are you a novice trader still coming to terms with the complexities of trading the forex market full-time?</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">Do you feel a little overwhelmed with terminology, when to enter a trade, when to exit, what is being over-leveraged, what is effective risk / money management and what is a trading plan?</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">The PREMIUM SERVICE may be an option worthy of serious consideration.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">The PREMIUM SERVICE is not a robot.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">The PREMIUM SERVICE it is not an automated system.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">The PREMIUM SERVICE is not an expensive fleecing series of daily financial updates, pages long that do not give you trading ideas or trade set-ups.</p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">What is the PREMIUM SERVICE?</span></b></p>\r\nFirstly, the PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber only addition to The WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU. The WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU is a weekly blog that I started over two years ago. Its aim was to review my thoughts and ideas on the forex market. I then started to add trade set-ups and write about trades that would be on my mind if certain events took place.\r\n\r\nI started to publish my future trade set-ups, which were predominantly profitable and as I approached my 100<sup>th</sup> blog, I decided that it was time to move to the next stage…. the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE contains trade-set ups of my various styles of trades that I developed into a successful formula for trading the forex market with more profitable than losing trades.\r\n\r\nAs a subscriber to the PREMIUM SERVICE, you will receive all my suggested trades whether they are: - FLASH trades, RADAR trades or FUNDAMENTAL trades via an exclusive protected Twitter feed. I give you my thoughts on entry, exit, trade size and what type of lot to trade.\r\n\r\nI do the risk assessment ahead of the trade. You decide whether you want to take the trade and what position size to take.\r\n\r\nIf you trade part-time: with the RADAR TRADE suggestions you simply load a limit order with your broker and the trade will enter and exit automatically, if you use the suggestions I provide, or you can chose your own exit strategy.\r\n\r\n(Full details and definitions of FLASH, RADAR and FUNDAMENTAL trades are inside the secure members area of the PREMIUM SERVICE)<b> </b>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>What are the current trading success rates with the PREMIUM SERVICE?</b></p>\r\nFrom my blogs published in December and January the following is an accurate trade by trade set up that was either “Blogged” or “Tweeted” via my twitter account @pipaccumulator (If you want more details please contact me directly via email - my address is at the foot of this document). I have my own history from the past 6 /7 years but it is displayed as below or in excel spread sheets as seen in my blog posts in the WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> and below.\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">December 2013 and January 2014: -</span></b>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">FLASH TRADES:</span></b></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">TOTAL TRADES: 28\r\nTOTAL PIPS NET PROFIT: 871</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">MICRO LOT TRADERS: 1 x micro lot traded your risk = 28 x $0.10 = $2.80\r\nYour reward was 871 x $0.10 = <b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">$87.10</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">MINI LOT TRADERS: 1 x mini lot traded your risk = 28 x $1.00 = $28.00\r\nYour reward was 871 x $1.00 = <b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">$871.00</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">STANDARD LOT TRADERS: 1 x standard lot traded your risk = 28 x $10.00\r\nYour reward was 871 x $10.00 = <b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">$8,710.00</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">RADAR TRADES:</span></b></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">TOTAL TRADES: 36\r\nTOTAL PIPS NET PROFIT: 646</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">MICRO LOT TRADERS: 1 x micro lot traded your risk = 36 x $0.10 = $3.60\r\nYour reward was 646 x $0.10 = <b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">$64.60</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">MINI LOT TRADERS: 1 x mini lot traded your risk = 36 x $1.00 = $36.00\r\nYour reward was 646 x $1.00 = <b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">$646.00</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">STANDARD LOT TRADERS: 1 x standard lot traded your risk = 36 x $360.00\r\nYour reward was 646 x $10.00 = <b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">$6,460.00</span></b></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">COMBINED RADAR &amp; FLASH TRADES:</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"> TOTAL TRADES: 64\r\nTOTAL PIPS NET PROFIT: 1,517</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">MICRO LOT TRADERS: 1 x micro lot traded your risk = 64 x $0.10 = $6.40\r\nYour reward was 1,517 x $0.10 = <b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">$151.70</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">MINI LOT TRADERS: 1 x mini lot traded your risk = 64 x $1.00 = $64.00\r\nYour reward was 1,517 x $1.00 = <b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">$1,517.00</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">STANDARD LOT TRADERS: 1 x standard lot traded your risk = 64 x $640.00\r\nYour reward was 1,517 x $10.00 = <b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">$15,710</span></b></p>\r\nIf you go to <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> and check back over the past 8/9 posts you can see very clearly the growth week by week to give this total.\r\n\r\nI am NOT saying that this can be expected every month because I am a cautious trader.\r\n\r\nHowever, I do trade currencies to make money.\r\n\r\nWhilst I like the idea of longer-term trading, if the market looks false to me I will cut profitable trades and bank money. I am not looking for the glory of three/four week trades to show I have nerves of steel to make +300 pips or so. If I can make 300 pips from three or four 24/48-hour trades instead, who cares? It’s all about banking profits and minimizing risk.\r\n\r\nI will have a balance of intra-day, swing and long term trades. It is your choice to pick what you want to take and what to risk. I am a low-risk very conservative trader.\r\n<p align=\"center\">FUNDAMENTALS MATTER TO ME</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">I TRADE TO MAKE MONEY…NOT TO PICK TOPS OR BOTTOMS</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">I TRADE LOW RISK</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">I DO NOT CHASE MARKETS</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">I LIKE THE TRADES TO COME TO ME</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">I AM NOT A GREEDY TRADER</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">I LIKE TO TRADE MOMENTUMS IN THE DIRECTION OF TRENDS</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">I USE FIBONACCI LEVELS TO ENTER &amp; EXIT ON MANY TRADES</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">PLUS</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">MY TRADING STYLE IS MIXED EVEN WITH THE ABOVE KEY BASICS</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">I USE THE PULLBACK STRATEGY TO ENTER AND I LIKE SWING AND LONGER-TERM TRADES (WHEN POSSIBLE)</p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe members area of the website contains not just the comprehensive trading history / journal of trades but it also contains as much support information as I can gather that is of use to help us all trade profitably. As time moves on, the support pages areas will increase so that it becomes a one-stop point of reference for all styles and types of traders regardless of experience.\r\n\r\nI am hoping to have a chat room so that subscribers and myself can chat live about potential live trades. In addition, if the number of participants is economically viable, I will hold webinars on trading issues. Below is a list of questions so far that will either be addressed by webinar or by a future section within a blog post.\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Trade Plans and how to work with them\r\nHow to find a good broker to partner with</b>\r\n<b>What trades for what broker\r\nMicro, Mini or Standard lots\r\nPlacing Stops</b>\r\n<b>Strategies on when to enter and exit trades</b>\r\n<b>Risk Assessment</b>\r\n<b>When to fade trades</b>\r\n<b>How to cost average effectively</b>\r\n<b>How to use Trade Zones effectively - Buy Zones and Sell zones</b>\r\n<b>Working with Fibonacci levels</b>\r\n<b>Basic Chart analysis</b></p>\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE will evolve as it moves forward. I have lots of ideas to integrate into this area, but I am also open to ideas from readers / followers and subscribers.\r\n\r\nThis is a very important step for me as well; I want the PREMIUM SERVICE to be different to other services currently available.\r\n\r\nWhilst upon first look, it may appear that the Premium Service is directed solely at new traders, or those with intermediate skill levels. Please note this is not my intention. Trading can be lonely, and sometimes it is good to feel that you are part of a team. With this in mind, I am thinking that a “Chat Room” style area would be of benefit to all traders to share ideas and trade set-ups. Plus, whether you are a new trader or an experienced trader it is always good to have a library of information available close at hand.\r\n\r\nWhat are the costs?\r\n\r\nThere will be 40 weekly blogs / issues per year. I will not write in the summer and over Christmas periods. There will be an unlimited amount of Twitter follow-ups to the exclusive subscribers on a Twitter secure feed during the week to review and act upon “FLASH, RADAR and FUNDAMENTAL trades” and issues emanating from previous blogs.\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>There are three subscription options: </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>ANNUAL (40 WEEK) SUBSCRIPTION: $750.00 (this equates to $18.75 per week) </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>20 WEEKS SUBSCRIPTION: $450.00 (this equates to $22.50 per week)  </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>10 WEEKS SUBSCRIPTION: $250.00 (this equates to $25.00 per week) </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>(All Fees are quoted in USD\r\nand\r\nPlease note: There are no refunds once a subscription is accepted)</b></p>\r\nIf you like what you have just read. Please click on the “SIGN -UP” link at the top of the welcome page of the WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU.\r\n\r\nThe registration is very straightforward to follow all you require is a PayPal account.\r\n\r\nWhen the registration process is complete and, within 24 hours, you will receive an email from me confirming everything and welcoming you onboard so to speak.\r\n\r\nShould you have any queries or encounter problems whilst trying to subscribe please contact me on the following email: -\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">premiumservice@weeklyfxdrivethru.com</span></b></p>\r\nI do hope that if you look through the history of my blog posts on the WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU you will see that I do have a relevance to the forex market and that joining the PREMIUM SERVICE would add value to your trading.\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b>\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">5. MAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:</span></b>\r\n\r\nSUNDAY: N/A\r\n\r\nMONDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: USD – Janet Yellen testifies\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: GBP – BOE Carney speaks &amp; BOE Inflation Report\r\nWEDNESDAY: EUR – Draghi speaks.\r\nWEDNESDAY: AUD – Unemployment Rate.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: USD – Core Retail Sales &amp; Retail Sales and Janet Yellen testifies.\r\nTHURSDAY: CNY - CPi\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: CAD – Manufacturing Sales.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">6. FINAL THOUGHTS:</span></b>\r\n\r\nI am expecting consolidation early next week. So, with that in mind, always, always remember that there is a market everyday. You do not need to trade everyday to make your financial goals.\r\n\r\nGood luck and trade within your TRADE PLAN guidelines and most importantly use MONEY MANAGEMENT SKILLS to control your risks.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nSaturday February 8th 2014\r\n\r\nEMAIL / FOLLOW ME AT:\r\ndrivethru@weeklyfxdrivethru.com\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n<span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">Google+/scottpickering\r\n</span><span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">StockTwits; thepipaccumulator</span>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','DESPITE THE FACT DRAGHI DID NOTHING NEW TO HELP  THE EUROZONE PERIPHERY OR TACKLE DEFLATION THE EURO RALLIED!','','inherit','open','closed','','3198-revision-v1','','','2014-02-08 11:02:04','2014-02-08 16:02:04','',3198,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/3198-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(3202,1,'2014-02-08 11:02:36','2014-02-08 16:02:36','WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU\r\n08.02.2014\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">1. INTRODUCTION:</span></b>\r\n\r\nWell, that was a very difficult week to understand at times.\r\n\r\nThe three major news events in the week that interested me had me a little confused and perplexed:\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">RBA Interest Rate Announcement and Statement:</span>\r\n\r\nInterest rates were left unchanged, this was strongly believed to be what would happen so there were no surprises but I found the policy statement a little confusing.\r\nFor the past few months RBA Governor Stevens had been talking down AUD strength and even went so far as to say that an exchange rate level of about 0.8500 would be a reasonable level as far as the Central Bank was concerned.\r\nNow we witness an about turn, we are all bullish again, and things were maybe not so bad as we had been saying for the past few months. The comment in the press release regarding currency guidance has now been removed.\r\nThe result on this RBA “Hallelujah moment” (positive view) was that the AUD/USD rallied from near critical support levels of 0.8660 back towards 0.8900.\r\nThis move offers up the potential for some great entries short again in the near future if the equities markets sell off.\r\nThe downside of this change in RBA sentiment from a personal viewpoint were that my FUNDAMENTAL AUD and NZD (in sympathy) cross-rate trades, were whacked across the board, and I decided to exit with losses.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">ECB Interest Rate and Press Conference:</span>\r\n\r\nOnce again I found the market reaction to Draghi’s comments a little strange to say the least. I am commenting later in the blog about this particular news event.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls:</span>\r\n\r\nAnother big miss, that’s two months in a row. As usual with NFP there is an instant ‘Knee-jerk” reaction probably in line with your thinking……then it turns and runs off in the opposite direction. It did exactly this once again, futures took a poor number on the chin and then they rallied back hard to end the day 23.59 points (1.33%) positive.\r\nIf you get suckered into move it can be very costly. I tweeted several times across both ‘Twitter Accounts” not to get suckered. I hope that you didn’t.\r\nSo the big question is of course, is the U.S. economy as strong as we are being told and is the FED on its tapering course no matter what because the cost of an expanding balance sheet through QE is having minimal effect and we are in economic terms seeing a decreasing returns to scale. By that I mean, what has QE (Quantitative Easing) actually done apart from give the greed of Wall Street support. What has it done for unemployment and housing?\r\n\r\nThe ramifications of two jobs misses will be debated for the next few weeks…watch this space.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">2. THE VIEW FROM MY TRADING DESK:</span></b>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b> </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>DESPITE THE FACT DRAGHI DID NOTHING NEW TO HELP\r\nTHE EUROZONE PERIPHERY OR TACKLE DEFLATION THE EURO RALLIED!</b></p>\r\nAnother classic ECB press conference; I am now of the opinion, and maybe I am the last person to acknowledge this, but it’s not about what Draghi says, it’s more about what he doesn’t say.\r\n\r\nHoly mother of God, the Eurozone is suffering from DEFLATION. Eminent European economists are talking about it quite openly now. Not only does Draghi ignore DEFLATION, he’s sh** scarred to even utter the word, he uses DIS-INFLATION instead. Does he think we are nuts? It is what it is!\r\n\r\nLast Thursday just prior to Draghi pulling up his chair to the table the EUR/USD was trading sub 1.3500. By the time the press conference was completed it rallied from sub 1.3500, through 1.3500 and 1.3600 towards 1.3620…wowie!!\r\n\r\nIs everything in the Eurozone just fantastic?\r\n\r\nTo be fair, some data has improved and Draghi acknowledged the positive encouraging signs in the areas of recovery and the modest pickup in consumer demand, rise in confidence and stable savings rates across the Eurozone.\r\n\r\nAs far as was concerned, or did I miss this news? Isn’t the Eurozone in a bias to ease mode? In the press conference Draghi never mentioned ‘Emerging markets” concerns, worries about inflation, basic monetary conditions or the general pathetic Eurozone economic outlook. Having examined his comments last month and compared them to this latest presentation they were pretty much the same. All I can think is that the EUR bears just looked on as Draghi ignored worries about Eurozone growth and inflation; hence the rally.\r\n\r\nI think Draghi’s very modest referral to a more positive outlook just took the EUR/USD through 1.3600.\r\n\r\nDraghi still talked about the future concerns in the Eurozone being inflation or unwarranted market tightening as being triggers for further additional monetary actions from the ECB. The bottom line I suppose was he made it clear that the ECB was in no rush to increase any stimulus and he is no closer to easing, these things alone were probably enough to send the EUR higher.\r\n\r\nThe elephant in the room at the press conference is DEFLATION. Every economist is so scared of saying that the Eurozone is in DEFLATION for fears of the Eurozone mirroring what happened in Japan.\r\n\r\nThe best quote I found during the week was from Gilles Moec, chief European economist at Deutsche Bank.\r\n<p align=\"center\"><i>“We don’t know if we’re in deflation now, but we cannot afford to take the risk. The problem is that it’s very hard to know you’re in it, and usually when you do, it’s too late. That’s what Japan found”</i></p>\r\nThe Eurozone consumer prices were 0.7% higher in January (year on year) which matched the record low from October 2013. The ECB target is just below 2%. Why the big fear?\r\n\r\nIf a lack of inflation (DEFLATION or disinflation) takes hold, it leads to a decline in the following, the general level of pricing, it undermines growth, it has an effect on and lowers corporate earnings and it affects asset values, like real estate. If economies are burdened this way as pretty much all of the Eurozone is, DEFLATION can drive a downward spiral, in which borrowers are bankrupted by their inability to repay loans on assets that have dropped in value. It’s a nightmare. This happened in Japan, where land prices fell dramatically since the early 1990’s with catastrophic consequences for banks and companies, never mind ordinary individuals.\r\n\r\nInflation basically erodes the real value of loans, making it easier for borrowers to repay, DEFLATION does the opposite. It places stress on banks. Do you think all the Eurozone banks are ready for DEFLATION? Why is yet another bank stress test on the way?\r\n\r\nWhichever way you want to view this, Greece and Cyprus have been issuing price declines, and Portugal, Spain and Ireland are not that far away from zero. Even the Eurozone power-house Germany is haunted as prices there rose just 1.2% last month (year on year).\r\n\r\nHowever, Draghi did nothing to address DEFLATION concerns. He has said in the past that the ECB would consider all the tools at its disposal to fight DEFLATION. But he has also said that there is nothing to fear. He line is “The risks of DELATION or inflation are limited at this point of time”.\r\n\r\nInteresting…\r\n\r\nHere is my list from last week’s blog on my view on the issues that the ECB still has to fix, a week on and having had a chance to do something nothing has been done: -\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<p align=\"center\"><i>UNEMPLOYMENT (in particular youth unemployment)</i></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><i>DEFLATION</i></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><i>BANK LIQUIDITY (yet another stress test is being planned)</i></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><i>BANKING STRENGTH (The long awaited banking union)\r\nPERIPHERY GROWTH\r\nRESTORE MARKET CONFIDENCE IN HOUSING MARKETS</i></p>\r\nI still think that a Eurozone crisis is needed to bring matters to a head.\r\n\r\nA crisis will add fuel to USD strength and drive the EUR/USD towards 1.3000 and possibly below.\r\n\r\nDraghi, with Merkel (in Berlin) pulling his strings will procrastinate and say things are in-line with expectations. The backdrop is Germany has the chequebook and does not want the invoices to fix the Eurozone as well. I totally get it.\r\n\r\nAs a trader I want a Eurozone crisis….\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">3. LOOKING FORWARD…THE KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS:</span></b>\r\n\r\n<b>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3634.</b>  Despite all the shenanigans during the week we ended only 40 pips lower than last week. We had a major sell off and two bullish events and we still did not break the trading range of 1.3475 to 1.3650, although we are very close to resistance. Early next week we should know if we are are we heading back towards 1.4000 or aiming lower towards 1.3000. This pair holds the key to the currency moves ahead. I really hope that these trading ranges will break soon; it is becoming a little boring. The S&amp;P needs to hold resistance at 1800. At this level I think that there is a good chance that we turn lower once again.\r\n\r\n<b>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.6410.  </b>I have very similar comments regarding cable as I just wrote about the EUR/USD. We saw about a 60 pip reduction in the past week.  At the start of the day on NFP (Friday) I had in mind that a short at around 1.6400 in cable would be a good entry. We will have to wait into the start of next week to re-assess the position. The next stopping point upwards is 1.6500-1.6520 and support lies at 1.6250. I may well issue a FLASH trade tweet about cable short early next week. Recent economic data from the UK has been rather muted and it looks like a downside move may be on the cards once the bullishness of NFP is out of the way.\r\n\r\n<b>AUD/USD: Closing Price 0.8958</b>.  I think that we are in a bullish trend at the moment with this pair. I am viewing this move as just a better entry price to head lower once again. Equities will have a lot to say about the future moves I think. Should the S&amp;P rollover at 1800 the AUD/USD should follow. Looking at the charts I think that we may see a run to the psychological 0.9000, maybe resistance as high as 0.9200. Big support is at 0.8876 and then below at 0.8750.\r\n\r\n<b>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8293</b>.  Probably in sympathy will the AUD/USD this pair has held up very well in the past week. Like the GBP/USD just before NFP, I had in my mind that 0.8300 would be a great area to look to short. Once again early next week there could be a FLASH trade alert on this pair.  In addition and like the AUD/USD, equities will point us in the correct direction with regards to this pair. At the moment, I think we may test levels a little higher towards 0.8400. Support is really good at 0.8185.\r\n\r\n<b>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.1032.</b>  I think that the CAD currency is quite weak at the moment and should we break out through 1.1125; we should see 1.1200 pretty soon. Support is good at 1.0950.\r\n\r\n<b>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.8982</b>.  We are bouncing around in a range of 0.9850 to 0.9080. We need this range to break to give us direction. I think that it is pointless looking at this pair to trade at the moment.\r\n\r\n<b>USD/JPY: Closing Price 102.31. </b> With all the movement, we only moved down one pip in the week! We have however consolidated at a lower level and this fact should not be missed. Moving forward the range is basically what it has been all week 101.75 to 102.80.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">4. THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</span></b>\r\n\r\nAs there are always new readers of this blog each week, I thought that I should mention the subscriber based option of the WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU that has been in existence now since the beginning of 2014; THE PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\nIt is an honest blog containing trade set-ups, profitable and losing trades, my ideas and thoughts and it also has for an instant communication to subscribers a dedicated protected TWITTER feed. All trades (profitable and losing) are monitored and recorded within the secure section of the WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU website.\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU:\r\n</span></b>(helping you to trade more consistently) <b></b>\r\n\r\n</p><p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">PREMIUM SERVICE   </span></b>\r\n\r\n</p><p align=\"center\">Are you a part-time forex trader?</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">Are you a novice trader still coming to terms with the complexities of trading the forex market full-time?</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">Do you feel a little overwhelmed with terminology, when to enter a trade, when to exit, what is being over-leveraged, what is effective risk / money management and what is a trading plan?</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">The PREMIUM SERVICE may be an option worthy of serious consideration.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">The PREMIUM SERVICE is not a robot.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">The PREMIUM SERVICE it is not an automated system.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">The PREMIUM SERVICE is not an expensive fleecing series of daily financial updates, pages long that do not give you trading ideas or trade set-ups.</p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">What is the PREMIUM SERVICE?</span></b></p>\r\nFirstly, the PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber only addition to The WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU. The WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU is a weekly blog that I started over two years ago. Its aim was to review my thoughts and ideas on the forex market. I then started to add trade set-ups and write about trades that would be on my mind if certain events took place.\r\n\r\nI started to publish my future trade set-ups, which were predominantly profitable and as I approached my 100<sup>th</sup> blog, I decided that it was time to move to the next stage…. the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE contains trade-set ups of my various styles of trades that I developed into a successful formula for trading the forex market with more profitable than losing trades.\r\n\r\nAs a subscriber to the PREMIUM SERVICE, you will receive all my suggested trades whether they are: - FLASH trades, RADAR trades or FUNDAMENTAL trades via an exclusive protected Twitter feed. I give you my thoughts on entry, exit, trade size and what type of lot to trade.\r\n\r\nI do the risk assessment ahead of the trade. You decide whether you want to take the trade and what position size to take.\r\n\r\nIf you trade part-time: with the RADAR TRADE suggestions you simply load a limit order with your broker and the trade will enter and exit automatically, if you use the suggestions I provide, or you can chose your own exit strategy.\r\n\r\n(Full details and definitions of FLASH, RADAR and FUNDAMENTAL trades are inside the secure members area of the PREMIUM SERVICE)<b> </b>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>What are the current trading success rates with the PREMIUM SERVICE?</b></p>\r\nFrom my blogs published in December and January the following is an accurate trade by trade set up that was either “Blogged” or “Tweeted” via my twitter account @pipaccumulator (If you want more details please contact me directly via email - my address is at the foot of this document). I have my own history from the past 6 /7 years but it is displayed as below or in excel spread sheets as seen in my blog posts in the WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> and below.\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">December 2013 and January 2014: -</span></b>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">FLASH TRADES:</span></b></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">TOTAL TRADES: 28\r\nTOTAL PIPS NET PROFIT: 871</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">MICRO LOT TRADERS: 1 x micro lot traded your risk = 28 x $0.10 = $2.80\r\nYour reward was 871 x $0.10 = <b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">$87.10</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">MINI LOT TRADERS: 1 x mini lot traded your risk = 28 x $1.00 = $28.00\r\nYour reward was 871 x $1.00 = <b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">$871.00</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">STANDARD LOT TRADERS: 1 x standard lot traded your risk = 28 x $10.00\r\nYour reward was 871 x $10.00 = <b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">$8,710.00</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">RADAR TRADES:</span></b></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">TOTAL TRADES: 36\r\nTOTAL PIPS NET PROFIT: 646</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">MICRO LOT TRADERS: 1 x micro lot traded your risk = 36 x $0.10 = $3.60\r\nYour reward was 646 x $0.10 = <b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">$64.60</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">MINI LOT TRADERS: 1 x mini lot traded your risk = 36 x $1.00 = $36.00\r\nYour reward was 646 x $1.00 = <b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">$646.00</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">STANDARD LOT TRADERS: 1 x standard lot traded your risk = 36 x $360.00\r\nYour reward was 646 x $10.00 = <b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">$6,460.00</span></b></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">COMBINED RADAR &amp; FLASH TRADES:</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"> TOTAL TRADES: 64\r\nTOTAL PIPS NET PROFIT: 1,517</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">MICRO LOT TRADERS: 1 x micro lot traded your risk = 64 x $0.10 = $6.40\r\nYour reward was 1,517 x $0.10 = <b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">$151.70</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">MINI LOT TRADERS: 1 x mini lot traded your risk = 64 x $1.00 = $64.00\r\nYour reward was 1,517 x $1.00 = <b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">$1,517.00</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">STANDARD LOT TRADERS: 1 x standard lot traded your risk = 64 x $640.00\r\nYour reward was 1,517 x $10.00 = <b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">$15,710</span></b></p>\r\nIf you go to <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> and check back over the past 8/9 posts you can see very clearly the growth week by week to give this total.\r\n\r\nI am NOT saying that this can be expected every month because I am a cautious trader.\r\n\r\nHowever, I do trade currencies to make money.\r\n\r\nWhilst I like the idea of longer-term trading, if the market looks false to me I will cut profitable trades and bank money. I am not looking for the glory of three/four week trades to show I have nerves of steel to make +300 pips or so. If I can make 300 pips from three or four 24/48-hour trades instead, who cares? It’s all about banking profits and minimizing risk.\r\n\r\nI will have a balance of intra-day, swing and long term trades. It is your choice to pick what you want to take and what to risk. I am a low-risk very conservative trader.\r\n<p align=\"center\">FUNDAMENTALS MATTER TO ME</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">I TRADE TO MAKE MONEY…NOT TO PICK TOPS OR BOTTOMS</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">I TRADE LOW RISK</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">I DO NOT CHASE MARKETS</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">I LIKE THE TRADES TO COME TO ME</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">I AM NOT A GREEDY TRADER</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">I LIKE TO TRADE MOMENTUMS IN THE DIRECTION OF TRENDS</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">I USE FIBONACCI LEVELS TO ENTER &amp; EXIT ON MANY TRADES</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">PLUS</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">MY TRADING STYLE IS MIXED EVEN WITH THE ABOVE KEY BASICS</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">I USE THE PULLBACK STRATEGY TO ENTER AND I LIKE SWING AND LONGER-TERM TRADES (WHEN POSSIBLE)</p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe members area of the website contains not just the comprehensive trading history / journal of trades but it also contains as much support information as I can gather that is of use to help us all trade profitably. As time moves on, the support pages areas will increase so that it becomes a one-stop point of reference for all styles and types of traders regardless of experience.\r\n\r\nI am hoping to have a chat room so that subscribers and myself can chat live about potential live trades. In addition, if the number of participants is economically viable, I will hold webinars on trading issues. Below is a list of questions so far that will either be addressed by webinar or by a future section within a blog post.\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Trade Plans and how to work with them\r\nHow to find a good broker to partner with</b>\r\n<b>What trades for what broker\r\nMicro, Mini or Standard lots\r\nPlacing Stops</b>\r\n<b>Strategies on when to enter and exit trades</b>\r\n<b>Risk Assessment</b>\r\n<b>When to fade trades</b>\r\n<b>How to cost average effectively</b>\r\n<b>How to use Trade Zones effectively - Buy Zones and Sell zones</b>\r\n<b>Working with Fibonacci levels</b>\r\n<b>Basic Chart analysis</b></p>\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE will evolve as it moves forward. I have lots of ideas to integrate into this area, but I am also open to ideas from readers / followers and subscribers.\r\n\r\nThis is a very important step for me as well; I want the PREMIUM SERVICE to be different to other services currently available.\r\n\r\nWhilst upon first look, it may appear that the Premium Service is directed solely at new traders, or those with intermediate skill levels. Please note this is not my intention. Trading can be lonely, and sometimes it is good to feel that you are part of a team. With this in mind, I am thinking that a “Chat Room” style area would be of benefit to all traders to share ideas and trade set-ups. Plus, whether you are a new trader or an experienced trader it is always good to have a library of information available close at hand.\r\n\r\nWhat are the costs?\r\n\r\nThere will be 40 weekly blogs / issues per year. I will not write in the summer and over Christmas periods. There will be an unlimited amount of Twitter follow-ups to the exclusive subscribers on a Twitter secure feed during the week to review and act upon “FLASH, RADAR and FUNDAMENTAL trades” and issues emanating from previous blogs.\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>There are three subscription options: </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>ANNUAL (40 WEEK) SUBSCRIPTION: $750.00 (this equates to $18.75 per week) </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>20 WEEKS SUBSCRIPTION: $450.00 (this equates to $22.50 per week)  </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>10 WEEKS SUBSCRIPTION: $250.00 (this equates to $25.00 per week) </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>(All Fees are quoted in USD\r\nand\r\nPlease note: There are no refunds once a subscription is accepted)</b></p>\r\nIf you like what you have just read. Please click on the “SIGN -UP” link at the top of the welcome page of the WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU.\r\n\r\nThe registration is very straightforward to follow all you require is a PayPal account.\r\n\r\nWhen the registration process is complete and, within 24 hours, you will receive an email from me confirming everything and welcoming you onboard so to speak.\r\n\r\nShould you have any queries or encounter problems whilst trying to subscribe please contact me on the following email: -\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">premiumservice@weeklyfxdrivethru.com</span></b></p>\r\nI do hope that if you look through the history of my blog posts on the WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU you will see that I do have a relevance to the forex market and that joining the PREMIUM SERVICE would add value to your trading.\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b>\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">5. MAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:</span></b>\r\n\r\nSUNDAY: N/A\r\n\r\nMONDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: USD – Janet Yellen testifies\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: GBP – BOE Carney speaks &amp; BOE Inflation Report\r\nWEDNESDAY: EUR – Draghi speaks.\r\nWEDNESDAY: AUD – Unemployment Rate.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: USD – Core Retail Sales &amp; Retail Sales and Janet Yellen testifies.\r\nTHURSDAY: CNY - CPi\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: CAD – Manufacturing Sales.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">6. FINAL THOUGHTS:</span></b>\r\n\r\nI am expecting consolidation early next week. So, with that in mind, always, always remember that there is a market everyday. You do not need to trade everyday to make your financial goals.\r\n\r\nGood luck and trade within your TRADE PLAN guidelines and most importantly use MONEY MANAGEMENT SKILLS to control your risks.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nSaturday February 8th 2014\r\n\r\nEMAIL / FOLLOW ME AT:\r\ndrivethru@weeklyfxdrivethru.com\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n<span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">Google+/scottpickering\r\n</span><span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">StockTwits; thepipaccumulator</span>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','DESPITE THE FACT DRAGHI DID NOTHING NEW TO HELP  THE EUROZONE PERIPHERY OR TACKLE DEFLATION THE EURO RALLIED!','','inherit','open','closed','','3198-revision-v1','','','2014-02-08 11:02:36','2014-02-08 16:02:36','',3198,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/3198-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(3203,1,'2014-02-08 11:26:47','2014-02-08 16:26:47','#3 – PREMIUM SERVICE\r\n08.02.2014<b> </b>\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">1. INTRODUCTION:</span></b>\r\n\r\nWell, that was a very difficult week to understand at times.\r\n\r\nThe three major news events in the week that interested me had me a little confused and perplexed:\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">RBA Interest Rate Announcement and Statement:</span>\r\n\r\nInterest rates were left unchanged, this was strongly believed to be what would happen so there were no surprises but I found the policy statement a little confusing.\r\nFor the past few months RBA Governor Stevens had been talking down AUD strength and even went so far as to say that an exchange rate level of about 0.8500 would be a reasonable level as far as the Central Bank was concerned.\r\nNow we witness an about turn, we are all bullish again, and things were maybe not so bad as we had been saying for the past few months. The comment in the press release regarding currency guidance has now been removed.\r\nThe result on this RBA “Hallelujah moment” (positive view) was that the AUD/USD rallied from near critical support levels of 0.8660 back towards 0.8900.\r\nThis move offers up the potential for some great entries short again in the near future if the equities markets sell off.\r\nThe downside of this change in RBA sentiment from a personal viewpoint were that my FUNDAMENTAL AUD and NZD (in sympathy) cross-rate trades, were whacked across the board, and I decided to exit with losses.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">ECB Interest Rate and Press Conference:</span>\r\n\r\nOnce again I found the market reaction to Draghi’s comments a little strange to say the least. I am commenting later in the blog about this particular news event.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls:</span>\r\n\r\nAnother big miss, that’s two months in a row. As usual with NFP there is an instant ‘Knee-jerk” reaction probably in line with your thinking……then it turns and runs off in the opposite direction. It did exactly this once again, futures took a poor number on the chin and then they rallied back hard to end the day 23.59 points (1.33%) positive.\r\nIf you get suckered into move it can be very costly. I tweeted several times across both ‘Twitter Accounts” not to get suckered. I hope that you didn’t.\r\nSo the big question is of course, is the U.S. economy as strong as we are being told and is the FED on its tapering course no matter what because the cost of an expanding balance sheet through QE is having minimal effect and we are in economic terms seeing a decreasing returns to scale. By that I mean, what has QE (Quantitative Easing) actually done apart from give the greed of Wall Street support. What has it done for unemployment and housing?\r\n\r\nThe ramifications of two jobs misses will be debated for the next few weeks…watch this space.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">2. TRADING SUMMARY:</span></b>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">RADAR, FLASH and FUNDAMENTAL TRADES</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">FEBRUARY 2014 and YEAR to date:</span></b></p>\r\nIt was a great start to the week and with primary market moving data towards the end of the week I traded less and basically observed. So on a pure volume of trades basis it was quiet.\r\n\r\nThe big news was that I exited all the FUNDAMENTAL trades and took losses. I hedge these, and, I am going to write about my approach to hedging in next week’s blog. My reason for exiting with hedging in place was that because they are commodity cross-rates I hate the way the overnight swap costs rise and I was looking at market sentiment changes that could be around for the coming weeks.  With my longer-term trades I like to have momentum behind me. I never did with any of the trades involved.\r\n\r\nBelow I show the up to date performances for my various trading styles. Full excel spreadsheets are in the subscriber area of the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">RADAR TRADES:</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">PROFITS FROM SINGLE LOT COMPLETED RADAR TRADES:</span></b></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"> 1 x MICRO-LOT:\r\n8 trades at $0.10 cents each = $0.80 cents risk for a $11.90 profit.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">1 x MINI-LOT:\r\n</span><span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">8 trades at $1.00 each = $8.00 risk for a $119.00 profit.\r\n</span></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">1 x STANDARD LOT:\r\n</span><span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">8 trades at $10.00 each = $80.00 risk for a $1,190.00 profit.</span></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">FLASH TRADES:</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">PROFITS FROM SINGLE LOT COMPLETED FLASH TRADES:</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x MICRO-LOT:\r\n4 trades at $0.10 cents each = $0.40 cents risk for a $8.30 loss.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x MINI-LOT:\r\n4 trades at $1.00 each = $4.00 risk for a $83.00 loss.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x STANDARD LOT:\r\n4 trades at $10.00 each = $40.00 risk for a $830.00 loss.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">FUNDAMENTAL TRADES:</span></b></p>\r\nI took some real hits (losses) on the trades in this section this month. Please bear in mind my maximum trade size in this area was 3 x micro-lots. The trade sizes are small because the trades were set up to be long term and the trade size is small because of the currency pairs involved. They are all huge daily ATR pairs.\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">PROFITS FROM SINGLE LOT COMPLETED FUNDAMENTAL TRADES:</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x MICRO-LOT:\r\n4 trades at $0.10 cents each = $0.40 cents risk for a $49.40 loss.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x MINI-LOT:\r\n4 trades at $1.00 each = $4.00 risk for a $494.00 loss.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x STANDARD LOT:\r\n4 trades at $10.00 each = $40.00 risk for a $4,940.00 loss.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">COMBINED FLASH, RADAR AND FUNDAMENTAL TRADES PROFIT PERFORMANCE</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">JANUARY 2014…SO FAR:</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">TRADING MICRO-LOTS:\r\n16 trades at $0.10 cents each = $1.60 risk for a $45.80 loss.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">TRADING MINI-LOTS:\r\n16 trades at $1.00 each = $16.00 risk for a $458.00 loss.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">TRADING STANDARD LOTS:\r\n16 trades at $10.00 each = $160.00 risk for a $4,580.00 loss.</p>\r\nThe above examples are for illustration purposes only:\r\n\r\nThe profitability examples detailed above are based solely upon single lot trading, regardless of lot type. If multiple lot sizes are traded the profitability margins will be different than those shown.\r\n\r\nJust to provide more information so you understand where I am coming from with the risk / reward statements above. All of my trades are of different sizes and different size lot types. The above does not reflect the actual trading performance. I like to add to trades, profits are taken as the trade progresses and my overall cost average moves several times. All of my trades are of different lot styles. I trade a mixture of micro lots, mini lots and standard lots across my brokers.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">3. THE FUNDAMENTAL TRADERS OVERVIEW:</span></b><b> </b>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>DESPITE THE FACT DRAGHI DID NOTHING NEW TO HELP\r\nTHE EUROZONE PERIPHERY OR TACKLE DEFLATION THE EURO RALLIED!</b></p>\r\nAnother classic ECB press conference; I am now of the opinion, and maybe I am the last person to acknowledge this, but it’s not about what Draghi says, it’s more about what he doesn’t say.\r\n\r\nHoly mother of God, the Eurozone is suffering from DEFLATION. Eminent European economists are talking about it quite openly now. Not only does Draghi ignore DEFLATION, he’s sh** scarred to even utter the word, he uses DIS-INFLATION instead. Does he think we are nuts? It is what it is!\r\n\r\nLast Thursday just prior to Draghi pulling up his chair to the table the EUR/USD was trading sub 1.3500. By the time the press conference was completed it rallied from sub 1.3500, through 1.3500 and 1.3600 towards 1.3620…wowie!!\r\n\r\nIs everything in the Eurozone just fantastic?\r\n\r\nTo be fair, some data has improved and Draghi acknowledged the positive encouraging signs in the areas of recovery and the modest pickup in consumer demand, rise in confidence and stable savings rates across the Eurozone.\r\n\r\nAs far as was concerned, or did I miss this news? Isn’t the Eurozone in a bias to ease mode? In the press conference Draghi never mentioned ‘Emerging markets” concerns, worries about inflation, basic monetary conditions or the general pathetic Eurozone economic outlook. Having examined his comments last month and compared them to this latest presentation they were pretty much the same. All I can think is that the EUR bears just looked on as Draghi ignored worries about Eurozone growth and inflation; hence the rally.\r\n\r\nI think Draghi’s very modest referral to a more positive outlook just took the EUR/USD through 1.3600.\r\n\r\nDraghi still talked about the future concerns in the Eurozone being inflation or unwarranted market tightening as being triggers for further additional monetary actions from the ECB. The bottom line I suppose was he made it clear that the ECB was in no rush to increase any stimulus and he is no closer to easing, these things alone were probably enough to send the EUR higher.\r\n\r\nThe elephant in the room at the press conference is DEFLATION. Every economist is so scared of saying that the Eurozone is in DEFLATION for fears of the Eurozone mirroring what happened in Japan.\r\n\r\nThe best quote I found during the week was from Gilles Moec, chief European economist at Deutsche Bank.\r\n<p align=\"center\"><i>“We don’t know if we’re in deflation now, but we cannot afford to take the risk. The problem is that it’s very hard to know you’re in it, and usually when you do, it’s too late. That’s what Japan found”</i></p>\r\nThe Eurozone consumer prices were 0.7% higher in January (year on year) which matched the record low from October 2013. The ECB target is just below 2%. Why the big fear?\r\n\r\nIf a lack of inflation (DEFLATION or disinflation) takes hold, it leads to a decline in the following, the general level of pricing, it undermines growth, it has an effect on and lowers corporate earnings and it affects asset values, like real estate. If economies are burdened this way as pretty much all of the Eurozone is, DEFLATION can drive a downward spiral, in which borrowers are bankrupted by their inability to repay loans on assets that have dropped in value. It’s a nightmare. This happened in Japan, where land prices fell dramatically since the early 1990’s with catastrophic consequences for banks and companies, never mind ordinary individuals.\r\n\r\nInflation basically erodes the real value of loans, making it easier for borrowers to repay, DEFLATION does the opposite. It places stress on banks. Do you think all the Eurozone banks are ready for DEFLATION? Why is yet another bank stress test on the way?\r\n\r\nWhichever way you want to view this, Greece and Cyprus have been issuing price declines, and Portugal, Spain and Ireland are not that far away from zero. Even the Eurozone power-house Germany is haunted as prices there rose just 1.2% last month (year on year).\r\n\r\nHowever, Draghi did nothing to address DEFLATION concerns. He has said in the past that the ECB would consider all the tools at its disposal to fight DEFLATION. But he has also said that there is nothing to fear. He line is “The risks of DEFLATION or inflation are limited at this point of time”.\r\n\r\nInteresting…\r\n\r\nHere is my list from last week’s blog on my view on the issues that the ECB still has to fix, a week on and having had a chance to do something nothing has been done: -\r\n<p align=\"center\"><i>UNEMPLOYMENT (in particular youth unemployment)</i></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><i>DEFLATION</i></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><i>BANK LIQUIDITY (yet another stress test is being planned)</i></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><i>BANKING STRENGTH (The long awaited banking union)\r\nPERIPHERY GROWTH\r\nRESTORE MARKET CONFIDENCE IN HOUSING MARKETS</i></p>\r\nI still think that a Eurozone crisis is needed to bring matters to a head.\r\n\r\nA crisis will add fuel to USD strength and drive the EUR/USD towards 1.3000 and possibly below.\r\n\r\nDraghi, with Merkel (in Berlin) pulling his strings will procrastinate and say things are in-line with expectations. The backdrop is Germany has the chequebook and does not want the invoices to fix the Eurozone as well. I totally get it.\r\n\r\nAs a trader I want a Eurozone crisis….\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">4. TRADER TOPICS:</span></b>\r\n\r\nAs requested I am using this section this week to talk about the various uses of ATR’s in trading.\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">ATR (AVERAGE TRUE RANGE)</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">HOW I USE IT TO PLACE FUNDAMENTAL TRADES</span></b><b> </b></p>\r\nBefore looking at how I use the ATR, it may be of some use to define what the ATR is.\r\n\r\nThe Average True Range (ATR) indicator is a simple tool but is very useful in measuring volatility. In very simple terms, the ATR measures the price range of a currency pair (it could also be a stock or any security) so that the higher the volatility of the currency pair the higher the ATR.\r\n\r\nThe ATR is measured as the greatest of any of the following 3 metrics:\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>The current high minus the low.</li>\r\n	<li>The value of the current high minus the previous close.</li>\r\n	<li>The value of the current low minus the previous close.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nWhichever is the highest of these three metrics is then represented as the average true range of the currency pair. Typically, the number is then smoothed using a 14-day moving average.\r\n\r\nFinding the average range of a currency pair has a number of important implications that can help make better trading decisions.\r\n\r\nThe best example is for POSITION (FUNDAMENTAL) trading. These are trades intended to be of a very long-term nature.\r\n\r\nThere are a number of uses for the ATR as well as for my FUNDAMENTAL trade set-ups and I will add these as well.\r\n\r\nI have listed four ways below of how to use the ATR as a support indicator when placing a trade, or use it effectively when you are already in a trade.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b>1. How I use the ATR when placing a FUNDAMENTAL trade:</b>\r\n\r\nAs my approach for FUNDAMENTAL trades is from of a longer-term perspective, I look at the “Monthly ATR” for the currency pairs that I am interested in trading.\r\n\r\nThe background to my trades from my existing fundamental view is that equities are going to roll over and sell off and at the same time commodity currencies are going to weaken such as AUD, NZD and CAD.\r\n\r\nKeeping things very simple, which is what I try to do. I am going to use my existing live trades as examples.\r\n\r\nFirstly, I look for Fibonacci levels for entries in conjunction with pivot points. Once I have those levels analyzed, I look at my currency pair establish how much I am prepared to risk in the trade and what type of lot I will use and determine what quantity I will buy or sell based upon my proposed entry and stop loss levels.\r\n\r\nAs I have written, many, many times in my blogs certain currency pairs are very volatile and smaller trade sizes should be used to cope with and absorb the wild moves associated with such pairs. The ATR gives you a fantastic lead in connection with this.\r\n\r\nAdditionally, you can hedge any trades to give you another layer of protection given their longer-term nature. The potential for huge swings before your trade takes shape in the chosen direction is always there and hedging limits both your risk and exposure. (Hedging will appear as a future discussion topic in the TRADER TOPICS section)\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>GBP/NZD\r\nEntry Level: 2.1090\r\nMonthly ATR = 850\r\nATR Stop: 1.9340\r\n“My Stop” placed on the trade: 1.9500</b></p>\r\nAs you can see I have room to move the stop if I want to meet the ATR indicator levels, should I decide that I want to.\r\n\r\nYou must realize with such huge stop loss levels in place, an appropriate trade size should be set accordingly.\r\n\r\nAs an example, and, all my trades above are around these lot sizes: -\r\n\r\nGBP/NZD:\r\nPotential loss 850 pips.\r\nTrade size at outset 2 x micro lots (850 x $0.20) = $170.00 risk.\r\n\r\nIf I did not alter the lot size or the limit and the trade hits my limit/ target of 2.1200.\r\nTrade size 2 x micro lots (1,010 x $0.20) = $202.00 reward.\r\n\r\nObviously, when the trade is profitable I would add lot sizes and move / adjust my limit accordingly. I would add lots and take profits along the way to my profit target. As a minimum I would be looking for a 2:1 ratio.\r\n\r\nThey key is closing your hedge trade in the opposite direction at the correct time to maximize profitability. It is not that straightforward at times.\r\n\r\nThere are other uses for the ATR that are more traditional.\r\n\r\n<b> </b>\r\n\r\n<b>2. Using the ATR to trade volatility:</b>\r\n\r\nThe ATR can be used as a trading signal in its own right.\r\n\r\nLet’s say that you are watching a market for a number of days and you have noticed that volatility has dropped significantly from its historical average. Since low periods of volatility often precede explosive moves in either direction, you could wait for the ATR to increase and place a trade in the direction of the move.\r\n\r\nCrossovers can also be used. For example, placing a trade when the fast ATR (e.g. 14 period) crosses over a slower ATR (e.g. 100 period). This can be an effective breakout volatility strategy.\r\n\r\n<b> </b>\r\n\r\n<b>3. Using the ATR for profit targets:</b>\r\n\r\nFor day traders, knowing the average range of a currency pair is extremely useful since it allows you to estimate how much profit potential there is in the market.\r\n\r\nFor example, there is no point looking for 150 pips of profit from a trade in the GBP/USD, if the average range for that market over the last 14 days is only 80 pips. You will simply end up waiting for profits that do not come and will likely end up losing money.\r\n\r\nA better solution is to halve the 14-day ATR and use this as your profit target. In other words, after entering a trade in the GBP/USD as above you can give yourself a profit target of around 40 pips. This is a much safer way to trade.\r\n\r\n<b> </b>\r\n\r\n<b>4. Using the ATR as a filter:</b>\r\n\r\nThe average true range is also a good indicator to use for filtering out trades.\r\n\r\nTraders typically need volatility to make any money so if you have a system that generates lots of different signals; you can filter out those currency pairs that are low in volatility by discarding those with a low ATR. Concentrating on currency pairs with the highest ATR’s mean you can trade the markets that are experiencing the most movement and therefore the most profit potential.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span>\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">5. MY CURRENT LIVE TRADES:</span></b>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">FLASH TRADES:</span></b></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>FT23</strong>\r\n<strong>AUD/CAD</strong>\r\n<strong>Long</strong>\r\n<strong>Cost Average: 0.9891</strong>\r\n<strong>Stop Loss: 0.9400</strong>\r\n<strong>Limit / Target: 1.0400</strong>\r\n<strong>My Position Size: 10%</strong>\r\n<strong>Closing Weekly Position:0.9882</strong>\r\n<strong><span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">My present Profit/Loss position:  -13pips</span></strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>FT24</strong>\r\n<strong>USD/CAD</strong>\r\n<strong>Long</strong>\r\n<strong>Cost Average: 1.0989</strong>\r\n<strong>Stop Loss: 1.1011 (Protected Stop)</strong>\r\n<strong>Limit / Target: 1.520</strong>\r\n<strong>My Position Size: 40%</strong>\r\n<strong>Closing Weekly Position: 1.1032</strong>\r\n<strong><span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">My present Profit/Loss position:  +43pips</span></strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">RADAR TRADES:</span></strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">No live RADAR TRADES at the present time.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">FUNDAMENTAL TRADES:</span></b></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">No live FUNDAMENTAL TRADES at the present time.</p>\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">6. TRADES THAT ARE ON MY RADAR:</span></b>\r\n\r\nI have the following two RADAR trades that I will be placing with my brokers on Sunday evening (09.02.2014). There are other trades and I will add these on Monday should the consolidation take place that I think will happen.\r\n<p align=\"center\">USD/CHF\r\nLong\r\nEntry Level: 0.0.8960\r\nStop Loss: 0.8880\r\nLimit / Target: 0.9250</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">EUR/AUD\r\nLong\r\nEntry Level: 1.5235\r\nStop Loss 1.4950\r\nLimit /Target 1.5450\r\n<b style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">PLEASE NOTE</span></b><b style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">:</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">(If you are contemplating this trade which traces an inverted\r\n“Head and Shoulders” pattern on the 60 minute chart. Please take smaller positions to cope with the volatility that could be involved with this trade)</p>\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">7. LOOKING FORWARD…THE KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS:</span></b>\r\n\r\n<b>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3634.</b>  Despite all the shenanigans during the week we ended only 40 pips lower than last week. We had a major sell off and two bullish events and we still did not break the trading range of 1.3475 to 1.3650, although we are very close to resistance. Early next week we should know if we are are we heading back towards 1.4000 or aiming lower towards 1.3000. This pair holds the key to the currency moves ahead. I really hope that these trading ranges will break soon; it is becoming a little boring. The S&amp;P needs to hold resistance at 1800. At this level I think that there is a good chance that we turn lower once again\r\n\r\n<b>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.6410.  </b>I have very similar comments regarding cable as I just wrote about the EUR/USD. We saw about a 60 pip reduction in the past week.  At the start of the day on NFP (Friday) I had in mind that a short at around 1.6400 in cable would be a good entry. We will have to wait into the start of next week to re-assess the position. The next stopping point upwards is 1.6500-1.6520 and support lies at 1.6250. I may well issue a FLASH trade tweet about cable short early next week. Recent economic data from the UK has been rather muted and it looks like a downside move may be on the cards once the bullishness of NFP is out of the way.\r\n\r\n<b>AUD/USD: Closing Price 0.8958</b>.  I think that we are in a bullish trend at the moment with this pair. I am viewing this move as just a better entry price to head lower once again. Equities will have a lot to say about the future moves I think. Should the S&amp;P rollover at 1800 the AUD/USD should follow. Looking at the charts I think that we may see a run to the psychological 0.9000, maybe resistance as high as 0.9200. Big support is at 0.8876 and then below at 0.8750.\r\n\r\n<b>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8293</b>.  Probably in sympathy will the AUD/USD this pair has held up very well in the past week. Like the GBP/USD just before NFP, I had in my mind that 0.8300 would be a great area to look to short. Once again early next week there could be a FLASH trade alert on this pair.  In addition and like the AUD/USD, equities will point us in the correct direction with regards to this pair. At the moment, I think we may test levels a little higher towards 0.8400. Support is really good at 0.8185.<b> </b>\r\n\r\n<b>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.1032.</b>  I think that the CAD currency is quite weak at the moment and should we break out through 1.1125; we should see 1.1200 pretty soon. Support is good at 1.0950.\r\n\r\n<b>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.8982</b>.  We are bouncing around in a range of 0.9850 to 0.9080. We need this range to break to give us direction. I think that it is pointless looking at this pair to trade at the moment.\r\n\r\n<b>USD/JPY: Closing Price 102.31. </b> With all the movement, we only moved down one pip in the week! We have however consolidated at a lower level and this fact should not be missed. Moving forward the range is basically what it has been all week 101.75 to 102.80.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">8. MAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:</span></b>\r\n\r\nSUNDAY: N/A\r\n\r\nMONDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: USD – Janet Yellen testifies\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: GBP – BOE Carney speaks &amp; BOE Inflation Report\r\nWEDNESDAY: EUR – Draghi speaks.\r\nWEDNESDAY: AUD – Unemployment Rate.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: USD – Core Retail Sales &amp; Retail Sales and Janet Yellen testifies.\r\nTHURSDAY: CNY - CPi\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: CAD – Manufacturing Sales.\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b>\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">9. FINAL THOUGHTS:</span></b>\r\n\r\nI am expecting consolidation early next week. So, with that in mind, always, always remember that there is a market everyday. You do not need to trade everyday to make your financial goals.\r\n\r\nGood luck and trade within your TRADE PLAN guidelines and most importantly use MONEY MANAGEMENT SKILLS to control your risks.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nSaturday February 8th 2014\r\n\r\nEMAIL / FOLLOW ME AT:\r\npremiumservice@weeklyfxdrivethru.com\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\nTwitter: @ThePremService\r\n<span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">Google+/scottpickering\r\n</span><span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">StockTwits; thepipaccumulator</span>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','DESPITE THE FACT DRAGHI DID NOTHING NEW TO HELP  THE EUROZONE PERIPHERY OR TACKLE DEFLATION THE EURO RALLIED!','','publish','open','closed','','despite-fact-draghi-nothing-new-help-eurozone-periphery-tackle-deflation-euro-rallied','','','2014-02-08 11:26:47','2014-02-08 16:26:47','',0,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?post_type=member_posts&#038;p=3203',0,'member_posts','',0),(3204,1,'2014-02-08 11:24:08','2014-02-08 16:24:08','#3 – PREMIUM SERVICE\r\n08.02.2014<b> </b>\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">1. INTRODUCTION:</span></b>\r\n\r\nWell, that was a very difficult week to understand at times.\r\n\r\nThe three major news events in the week that interested me had me a little confused and perplexed:\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">RBA Interest Rate Announcement and Statement:</span>\r\n\r\nInterest rates were left unchanged, this was strongly believed to be what would happen so there were no surprises but I found the policy statement a little confusing.\r\nFor the past few months RBA Governor Stevens had been talking down AUD strength and even went so far as to say that an exchange rate level of about 0.8500 would be a reasonable level as far as the Central Bank was concerned.\r\nNow we witness an about turn, we are all bullish again, and things were maybe not so bad as we had been saying for the past few months. The comment in the press release regarding currency guidance has now been removed.\r\nThe result on this RBA “Hallelujah moment” (positive view) was that the AUD/USD rallied from near critical support levels of 0.8660 back towards 0.8900.\r\nThis move offers up the potential for some great entries short again in the near future if the equities markets sell off.\r\nThe downside of this change in RBA sentiment from a personal viewpoint were that my FUNDAMENTAL AUD and NZD (in sympathy) cross-rate trades, were whacked across the board, and I decided to exit with losses.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">ECB Interest Rate and Press Conference:</span>\r\n\r\nOnce again I found the market reaction to Draghi’s comments a little strange to say the least. I am commenting later in the blog about this particular news event.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls:</span>\r\n\r\nAnother big miss, that’s two months in a row. As usual with NFP there is an instant ‘Knee-jerk” reaction probably in line with your thinking……then it turns and runs off in the opposite direction. It did exactly this once again, futures took a poor number on the chin and then they rallied back hard to end the day 23.59 points (1.33%) positive.\r\nIf you get suckered into move it can be very costly. I tweeted several times across both ‘Twitter Accounts” not to get suckered. I hope that you didn’t.\r\nSo the big question is of course, is the U.S. economy as strong as we are being told and is the FED on its tapering course no matter what because the cost of an expanding balance sheet through QE is having minimal effect and we are in economic terms seeing a decreasing returns to scale. By that I mean, what has QE (Quantitative Easing) actually done apart from give the greed of Wall Street support. What has it done for unemployment and housing?\r\n\r\nThe ramifications of two jobs misses will be debated for the next few weeks…watch this space.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">2. TRADING SUMMARY:</span></b>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">RADAR, FLASH and FUNDAMENTAL TRADES</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">FEBRUARY 2014 and YEAR to date:</span></b></p>\r\nIt was a great start to the week and with primary market moving data towards the end of the week I traded less and basically observed. So on a pure volume of trades basis it was quiet.\r\n\r\nThe big news was that I exited all the FUNDAMENTAL trades and took losses. I hedge these, and, I am going to write about my approach to hedging in next week’s blog. My reason for exiting with hedging in place was that because they are commodity cross-rates I hate the way the overnight swap costs rise and I was looking at market sentiment changes that could be around for the coming weeks.  With my longer-term trades I like to have momentum behind me. I never did with any of the trades involved.\r\n\r\nBelow I show the up to date performances for my various trading styles. Full excel spreadsheets are in the subscriber area of the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">RADAR TRADES:</span></b>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">PROFITS FROM SINGLE LOT COMPLETED RADAR TRADES:</span></b></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"> 1 x MICRO-LOT:\r\n8 trades at $0.10 cents each = $0.80 cents risk for a $11.90 profit.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">1 x MINI-LOT:\r\n</span><span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">8 trades at $1.00 each = $8.00 risk for a $119.00 profit.\r\n</span></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">1 x STANDARD LOT:\r\n</span><span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">8 trades at $10.00 each = $80.00 risk for a $1,190.00 profit.</span></p>\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">FLASH TRADES:</span></b>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">PROFITS FROM SINGLE LOT COMPLETED FLASH TRADES:</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x MICRO-LOT:\r\n4 trades at $0.10 cents each = $0.40 cents risk for a $8.30 loss.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x MINI-LOT:\r\n4 trades at $1.00 each = $4.00 risk for a $83.00 loss.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x STANDARD LOT:\r\n4 trades at $10.00 each = $40.00 risk for a $830.00 loss.</p>\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">FUNDAMENTAL TRADES:</span></b>\r\n\r\nI took some real hits (losses) on the trades in this section this month. Please bear in mind my maximum trade size in this area was 3 x micro-lots. The trade sizes are small because the trades were set up to be long term and the trade size is small because of the currency pairs involved. They are all huge daily ATR pairs.\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">PROFITS FROM SINGLE LOT COMPLETED FUNDAMENTAL TRADES:</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x MICRO-LOT:\r\n4 trades at $0.10 cents each = $0.40 cents risk for a $49.40 loss.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x MINI-LOT:\r\n4 trades at $1.00 each = $4.00 risk for a $494.00 loss.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x STANDARD LOT:\r\n4 trades at $10.00 each = $40.00 risk for a $4,940.00 loss.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">COMBINED FLASH, RADAR AND FUNDAMENTAL TRADES PROFIT PERFORMANCE</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">JANUARY 2014…SO FAR:</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">TRADING MICRO-LOTS:\r\n16 trades at $0.10 cents each = $1.60 risk for a $45.80 loss.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">TRADING MINI-LOTS:\r\n16 trades at $1.00 each = $16.00 risk for a $458.00 loss.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">TRADING STANDARD LOTS:\r\n16 trades at $10.00 each = $160.00 risk for a $4,580.00 loss.</p>\r\nThe above examples are for illustration purposes only:\r\n\r\nThe profitability examples detailed above are based solely upon single lot trading, regardless of lot type. If multiple lot sizes are traded the profitability margins will be different than those shown.\r\n\r\nJust to provide more information so you understand where I am coming from with the risk / reward statements above. All of my trades are of different sizes and different size lot types. The above does not reflect the actual trading performance. I like to add to trades, profits are taken as the trade progresses and my overall cost average moves several times. All of my trades are of different lot styles. I trade a mixture of micro lots, mini lots and standard lots across my brokers.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">3. THE FUNDAMENTAL TRADERS OVERVIEW:</span></b><b> </b>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>DESPITE THE FACT DRAGHI DID NOTHING NEW TO HELP\r\nTHE EUROZONE PERIPHERY OR TACKLE DEFLATION THE EURO RALLIED!</b></p>\r\nAnother classic ECB press conference; I am now of the opinion, and maybe I am the last person to acknowledge this, but it’s not about what Draghi says, it’s more about what he doesn’t say.\r\n\r\nHoly mother of God, the Eurozone is suffering from DEFLATION. Eminent European economists are talking about it quite openly now. Not only does Draghi ignore DEFLATION, he’s sh** scarred to even utter the word, he uses DIS-INFLATION instead. Does he think we are nuts? It is what it is!\r\n\r\nLast Thursday just prior to Draghi pulling up his chair to the table the EURUSD was trading sub 1.3500. By the time the press conference was completed it rallied from sub 1.3500, through 1.3500 and 1.3600 towards 1.3620…wowie!!\r\n\r\nIs everything in the Eurozone just fantastic?\r\n\r\nTo be fair, some data has improved and Draghi acknowledged the positive encouraging signs in the areas of recovery and the modest pickup in consumer demand, rise in confidence and stable savings rates across the Eurozone.\r\n\r\nAs far as was concerned, or did I miss this news? Isn’t the Eurozone in a bias to ease mode? In the press conference Draghi never mentioned ‘Emerging markets” concerns, worries about inflation, basic monetary conditions or the general pathetic Eurozone economic outlook. Having examined his comments last month and compared them to this latest presentation they were pretty much the same. All I can think is that the EUR bears just looked on as Draghi ignored worries about Eurozone growth and inflation; hence the rally.\r\n\r\nI think Draghi’s very modest referral to a more positive outlook just took the EUR/USD through 1.3600.\r\n\r\nDraghi still talked about the future concerns in the Eurozone being inflation or unwarranted market tightening as being triggers for further additional monetary actions from the ECB. The bottom line I suppose was he made it clear that the ECB was in no rush to increase any stimulus and he is no closer to easing, these things alone were probably enough to send the EUR higher.\r\n\r\nThe elephant in the room at the press conference is DEFLATION. Every economist is so scared of saying that the Eurozone is in DEFLATION for fears of the Eurozone mirroring what happened in Japan.\r\n\r\nThe best quote I found during the week was from Gilles Moec, chief European economist at Deutsche Bank.\r\n<p align=\"center\"><i>“We don’t know if we’re in deflation now, but we cannot afford to take the risk. The problem is that it’s very hard to know you’re in it, and usually when you do, it’s too late. That’s what Japan found”</i></p>\r\nThe Eurozone consumer prices were 0.7% higher in January (year on year) which matched the record low from October 2013. The ECB target is just below 2%. Why the big fear?\r\n\r\nIf a lack of inflation (DEFLATION or disinflation) takes hold, it leads to a decline in the following, the general level of pricing, it undermines growth, it has an effect on and lowers corporate earnings and it effects asset values, like real estate. If economies are burdened this way as pretty much all of the Eurozone is, DEFLATION can drive a downward spiral, in which borrowers are bankrupted by their inability to repay loans on assets that have dropped in value. It’s a nightmare. This happened in Japan, where land prices fell dramatically since the early 1990’s with catastrophic consequences for banks and companies, never mind ordinary individuals.\r\n\r\nInflation basically erodes the real value of loans, making it easier for borrowers to repay, DEFLATION does the opposite. It places stress on banks. Do you think all the Eurozone banks are ready for DEFLATION? Why is yet another bank stress test on the way?\r\n\r\nWhichever way you want to view this, Greece and Cyprus have been issuing price declines, and Portugal, Spain and Ireland are not that far away from zero. Even the Eurozone power-house Germany is haunted as prices there rose just 1.2% last month (year on year).\r\n\r\nHowever, Draghi did nothing to address DEFLATION concerns. He has said in the past that the ECB would consider all the tools at its disposal to fight DEFLATION. But he has also said that there is nothing to fear. He line is “The risks of DELATION or inflation are limited at this point of time”.\r\n\r\nInteresting…\r\n\r\nHere is my list from last week’s blog on my view on the issues that the ECB still has to fix, a week on and having had a chance to do something nothing has been done: -\r\n<p align=\"center\"><i>UNEMPLOYMENT (in particular youth unemployment)</i></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><i>DEFLATION</i></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><i>BANK LIQUIDITY (yet another stress test is being planned)</i></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><i>BANKING STRENGTH (The long awaited banking union)\r\nPERIPHERY GROWTH\r\nRESTORE MARKET CONFIDENCE IN HOUSING MARKETS</i></p>\r\nI still think that a Eurozone crisis is needed to bring matters to a head.\r\n\r\nA crisis will add fuel to USD strength and drive the EUR/USD towards 1.3000 and possibly below.\r\n\r\nDraghi, with Merkel (in Berlin) pulling his strings will procrastinate and say things are in-line with expectations. The backdrop is Germany has the chequebook and does not want the invoices to fix the Eurozone as well. I totally get it.\r\n\r\nAs a trader I want a Eurozone crisis….\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">4. TRADER TOPICS:</span></b>\r\n\r\nAs requested I am using this section this week to talk about the various uses of ATR’s in trading.\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">ATR (AVERAGE TRUE RANGE)</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">HOW I USE IT TO PLACE FUNDAMENTAL TRADES</span></b><b> </b></p>\r\n\r\nBefore looking at how I use the ATR, it may be of some use to define what the ATR is.\r\n\r\nThe Average True Range (ATR) indicator is a simple tool but is very useful in measuring volatility. In very simple terms, the ATR measures the price range of a currency pair (it could also be a stock or any security) so that the higher the volatility of the currency pair the higher the ATR.\r\n\r\nThe ATR is measured as the greatest of any of the following 3 metrics:\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>The current high minus the low.</li>\r\n	<li>The value of the current high minus the previous close.</li>\r\n	<li>The value of the current low minus the previous close.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nWhichever is the highest of these three metrics is then represented as the average true range of the currency pair. Typically, the number is then smoothed using a 14-day moving average.\r\n\r\nFinding the average range of a currency pair has a number of important implications that can help make better trading decisions.\r\n\r\nThe best example is for POSITION (FUNDAMENTAL) trading. These are trades intended to be of a very long-term nature.\r\n\r\nThere are a number of uses for the ATR as well as for my FUNDAMENTAL trade set-ups and I will add these as well.\r\n\r\nI have listed four ways below of how to use the ATR as a support indicator when placing a trade, or use it effectively when you are already in a trade.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b>1. How I use the ATR when placing a FUNDAMENTAL trade:</b>\r\n\r\nAs my approach for FUNDAMENTAL trades is from of a longer-term perspective, I look at the “Monthly ATR” for the currency pairs that I am interested in trading.\r\n\r\nThe background to my trades from my existing fundamental view is that equities are going to roll over and sell off and at the same time commodity currencies are going to weaken such as AUD, NZD and CAD.\r\n\r\nKeeping things very simple, which is what I try to do. I am going to use my existing live trades as examples.\r\n\r\nFirstly, I look for Fibonacci levels for entries in conjunction with pivot points. Once I have those levels analyzed, I look at my currency pair establish how much I am prepared to risk in the trade and what type of lot I will use and determine what quantity I will buy or sell based upon my proposed entry and stop loss levels.\r\n\r\nAs I have written, many, many times in my blogs certain currency pairs are very volatile and smaller trade sizes should be used to cope with and absorb the wild moves associated with such pairs. The ATR gives you a fantastic lead in connection with this.\r\n\r\nAdditionally, you can hedge any trades to give you another layer of protection given their longer-term nature. The potential for huge swings before your trade takes shape in the chosen direction is always there and hedging limits both your risk and exposure. (Hedging will appear as a future discussion topic in the TRADER TOPICS section)\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>GBP/NZD\r\nEntry Level: 2.1090\r\nMonthly ATR = 850\r\nATR Stop: 1.9340\r\n“My Stop” placed on the trade: 1.9500</b></p>\r\nAs you can see I have room to move the stop if I want to meet the ATR indicator levels, should I decide that I want to.\r\n\r\nYou must realize with such huge stop loss levels in place, an appropriate trade size should be set accordingly.\r\n\r\nAs an example, and, all my trades above are around these lot sizes: -\r\n\r\nGBP/NZD:\r\nPotential loss 850 pips.\r\nTrade size at outset 2 x micro lots (850 x $0.20) = $170.00 risk.\r\n\r\nIf I did not alter the lot size or the limit and the trade hits my limit/ target of 2.1200.\r\nTrade size 2 x micro lots (1,010 x $0.20) = $202.00 reward.\r\n\r\nObviously, when the trade is profitable I would add lot sizes and move / adjust my limit accordingly. I would add lots and take profits along the way to my profit target. As a minimum I would be looking for a 2:1 ratio.\r\n\r\nThey key is closing your hedge trade in the opposite direction at the correct time to maximize profitability. It is not that straightforward at times.\r\n\r\nThere are other uses for the ATR that are more traditional.\r\n\r\n<b> </b>\r\n\r\n<b>2. Using the ATR to trade volatility:</b>\r\n\r\nThe ATR can be used as a trading signal in its own right.\r\n\r\nLet’s say that you are watching a market for a number of days and you have noticed that volatility has dropped significantly from its historical average. Since low periods of volatility often precede explosive moves in either direction, you could wait for the ATR to increase and place a trade in the direction of the move.\r\n\r\nCrossovers can also be used. For example, placing a trade when the fast ATR (e.g. 14 period) crosses over a slower ATR (e.g. 100 period). This can be an effective breakout volatility strategy.\r\n\r\n<b> </b>\r\n\r\n<b>3. Using the ATR for profit targets:</b>\r\n\r\nFor day traders, knowing the average range of a currency pair is extremely useful since it allows you to estimate how much profit potential there is in the market.\r\n\r\nFor example, there is no point looking for 150 pips of profit from a trade in the GBP/USD, if the average range for that market over the last 14 days is only 80 pips. You will simply end up waiting for profits that do not come and will likely end up losing money.\r\n\r\nA better solution is to halve the 14-day ATR and use this as your profit target. In other words, after entering a trade in the GBP/USD as above you can give yourself a profit target of around 40 pips. This is a much safer way to trade.\r\n\r\n<b> </b>\r\n\r\n<b>4. Using the ATR as a filter:</b>\r\n\r\nThe average true range is also a good indicator to use for filtering out trades.\r\n\r\nTraders typically need volatility to make any money so if you have a system that generates lots of different signals; you can filter out those currency pairs that are low in volatility by discarding those with a low ATR. Concentrating on currency pairs with the highest ATR’s mean you can trade the markets that are experiencing the most movement and therefore the most profit potential.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span>\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">5. MY CURRENT LIVE TRADES:</span></b>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">FLASH TRADES:</span></b></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>FT23</strong>\r\n<strong>AUD/CAD</strong>\r\n<strong>Long</strong>\r\n<strong>Cost Average: 0.9891</strong>\r\n<strong>Stop Loss: 0.9400</strong>\r\n<strong>Limit / Target: 1.0400</strong>\r\n<strong>My Position Size: 10%</strong>\r\n<strong>Closing Weekly Position:0.9882</strong>\r\n<strong><span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">My present Profit/Loss position:  -13pips</span></strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>FT24</strong>\r\n<strong>USD/CAD</strong>\r\n<strong>Long</strong>\r\n<strong>Cost Average: 1.0989</strong>\r\n<strong>Stop Loss: 1.1011 (Protected Stop)</strong>\r\n<strong>Limit / Target: 1.520</strong>\r\n<strong>My Position Size: 40%</strong>\r\n<strong>Closing Weekly Position: 1.1032</strong>\r\n<strong><span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">My present Profit/Loss position:  +43pips</span></strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">RADAR TRADES:</span></strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">No live RADAR TRADES at the present time.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">FUNDAMENTAL TRADES:</span></b></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">No live FUNDAMENTAL TRADES at the present time.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"></p>\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">6. TRADES THAT ARE ON MY RADAR:</span></b>\r\n\r\nI have the following two RADAR trades that I will be placing with my brokers on Sunday evening (09.02.2014). There are other trades and I will add these on Monday should the consolidation take place that I think will happen.\r\n<p align=\"center\">USD/CHF\r\nLong\r\nEntry Level: 0.0.8960\r\nStop Loss: 0.8880\r\nLimit / Target: 0.9250</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">EUR/AUD\r\nLong\r\nEntry Level: 1.5235\r\nStop Loss 1.4950\r\nLimit /Target 1.5450\r\n<b style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">PLEASE NOTE</span></b><b style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">:</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">(If you are contemplating this trade which traces an inverted\r\n“Head and Shoulders” pattern on the 60 minute chart. Please take smaller positions to cope with the volatility that could be involved with this trade)</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"></p>\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">7. LOOKING FORWARD…THE KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS:</span></b>\r\n\r\n<b>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3634.</b>  Despite all the shenanigans during the week we ended only 40 pips lower than last week. We had a major sell off and two bullish events and we still did not break the trading range of 1.3475 to 1.3650, although we are very close to resistance. Early next week we should know if we are are we heading back towards 1.4000 or aiming lower towards 1.3000. This pair holds the key to the currency moves ahead. I really hope that these trading ranges will break soon; it is becoming a little boring. The S&amp;P needs to hold resistance at 1800. At this level I think that there is a good chance that we turn lower once again\r\n\r\n<b>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.6410.  </b>I have very similar comments regarding cable as I just wrote about the EUR/USD. We saw about a 60 pip reduction in the past week.  At the start of the day on NFP (Friday) I had in mind that a short at around 1.6400 in cable would be a good entry. We will have to wait into the start of next week to re-assess the position. The next stopping point upwards is 1.6500-1.6520 and support lies at 1.6250. I may well issue a FLASH trade tweet about cable short early next week. Recent economic data from the UK has been rather muted and it looks like a downside move may be on the cards once the bullishness of NFP is out of the way.\r\n\r\n<b>AUD/USD: Closing Price 0.8958</b>.  I think that we are in a bullish trend at the moment with this pair. I am viewing this move as just a better entry price to head lower once again. Equities will have a lot to say about the future moves I think. Should the S&amp;P rollover at 1800 the AUD/USD should follow. Looking at the charts I think that we may see a run to the psychological 0.9000, maybe resistance as high as 0.9200. Big support is at 0.8876 and then below at 0.8750.\r\n\r\n<b>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8293</b>.  Probably in sympathy will the AUD/USD this pair has held up very well in the past week. Like the GBP/USD just before NFP, I had in my mind that 0.8300 would be a great area to look to short. Once again early next week there could be a FLASH trade alert on this pair.  In addition and like the AUD/USD, equities will point us in the correct direction with regards to this pair. At the moment, I think we may test levels a little higher towards 0.8400. Support is really good at 0.8185.<b> </b>\r\n\r\n<b>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.1032.</b>  I think that the CAD currency is quite weak at the moment and should we break out through 1.1125; we should see 1.1200 pretty soon. Support is good at 1.0950.\r\n\r\n<b>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.8982</b>.  We are bouncing around in a range of 0.9850 to 0.9080. We need this range to break to give us direction. I think that it is pointless looking at this pair to trade at the moment.\r\n\r\n<b>USD/JPY: Closing Price 102.31. </b> With all the movement, we only moved down one pip in the week! We have however consolidated at a lower level and this fact should not be missed. Moving forward the range is basically what it has been all week 101.75 to 102.80.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">8. MAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:</span></b>\r\n\r\nSUNDAY: N/A\r\n\r\nMONDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: USD – Janet Yellen testifies\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: GBP – BOE Carney speaks &amp; BOE Inflation Report\r\nWEDNESDAY: EUR – Draghi speaks.\r\nWEDNESDAY: AUD – Unemployment Rate.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: USD – Core Retail Sales &amp; Retail Sales and Janet Yellen testifies.\r\nTHURSDAY: CNY - CPi\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: CAD – Manufacturing Sales.\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b>\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">9. FINAL THOUGHTS:</span></b>\r\n\r\nI am expecting consolidation early next week. So, with that in mind, always, always remember that there is a market everyday. You do not need to trade everyday to make your financial goals.\r\n\r\nGood luck and trade within your TRADE PLAN guidelines and most importantly use MONEY MANGEMENT SKILLS to control your risks.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nSaturday February 8th 2014\r\n\r\nEMAIL / FOLLOW ME AT:\r\npremiumservice@weeklyfxdrivethru.com\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\nTwitter: @ThePremService\r\n<span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">Google+/scottpickering\r\n</span><span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">StockTwits; thepipaccumulator</span>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','DESPITE THE FACT DRAGHI DID NOTHING NEW TO HELP  THE EUROZONE PERIPHERY OR TACKLE DEFLATION THE EURO RALLIED!','','inherit','open','closed','','3203-revision-v1','','','2014-02-08 11:24:08','2014-02-08 16:24:08','',3203,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/3203-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(3206,1,'2014-02-08 11:26:35','2014-02-08 16:26:35','#3 – PREMIUM SERVICE\r\n08.02.2014<b> </b>\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">1. INTRODUCTION:</span></b>\r\n\r\nWell, that was a very difficult week to understand at times.\r\n\r\nThe three major news events in the week that interested me had me a little confused and perplexed:\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">RBA Interest Rate Announcement and Statement:</span>\r\n\r\nInterest rates were left unchanged, this was strongly believed to be what would happen so there were no surprises but I found the policy statement a little confusing.\r\nFor the past few months RBA Governor Stevens had been talking down AUD strength and even went so far as to say that an exchange rate level of about 0.8500 would be a reasonable level as far as the Central Bank was concerned.\r\nNow we witness an about turn, we are all bullish again, and things were maybe not so bad as we had been saying for the past few months. The comment in the press release regarding currency guidance has now been removed.\r\nThe result on this RBA “Hallelujah moment” (positive view) was that the AUD/USD rallied from near critical support levels of 0.8660 back towards 0.8900.\r\nThis move offers up the potential for some great entries short again in the near future if the equities markets sell off.\r\nThe downside of this change in RBA sentiment from a personal viewpoint were that my FUNDAMENTAL AUD and NZD (in sympathy) cross-rate trades, were whacked across the board, and I decided to exit with losses.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">ECB Interest Rate and Press Conference:</span>\r\n\r\nOnce again I found the market reaction to Draghi’s comments a little strange to say the least. I am commenting later in the blog about this particular news event.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls:</span>\r\n\r\nAnother big miss, that’s two months in a row. As usual with NFP there is an instant ‘Knee-jerk” reaction probably in line with your thinking……then it turns and runs off in the opposite direction. It did exactly this once again, futures took a poor number on the chin and then they rallied back hard to end the day 23.59 points (1.33%) positive.\r\nIf you get suckered into move it can be very costly. I tweeted several times across both ‘Twitter Accounts” not to get suckered. I hope that you didn’t.\r\nSo the big question is of course, is the U.S. economy as strong as we are being told and is the FED on its tapering course no matter what because the cost of an expanding balance sheet through QE is having minimal effect and we are in economic terms seeing a decreasing returns to scale. By that I mean, what has QE (Quantitative Easing) actually done apart from give the greed of Wall Street support. What has it done for unemployment and housing?\r\n\r\nThe ramifications of two jobs misses will be debated for the next few weeks…watch this space.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">2. TRADING SUMMARY:</span></b>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">RADAR, FLASH and FUNDAMENTAL TRADES</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">FEBRUARY 2014 and YEAR to date:</span></b></p>\r\nIt was a great start to the week and with primary market moving data towards the end of the week I traded less and basically observed. So on a pure volume of trades basis it was quiet.\r\n\r\nThe big news was that I exited all the FUNDAMENTAL trades and took losses. I hedge these, and, I am going to write about my approach to hedging in next week’s blog. My reason for exiting with hedging in place was that because they are commodity cross-rates I hate the way the overnight swap costs rise and I was looking at market sentiment changes that could be around for the coming weeks.  With my longer-term trades I like to have momentum behind me. I never did with any of the trades involved.\r\n\r\nBelow I show the up to date performances for my various trading styles. Full excel spreadsheets are in the subscriber area of the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">RADAR TRADES:</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">PROFITS FROM SINGLE LOT COMPLETED RADAR TRADES:</span></b></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"> 1 x MICRO-LOT:\r\n8 trades at $0.10 cents each = $0.80 cents risk for a $11.90 profit.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">1 x MINI-LOT:\r\n</span><span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">8 trades at $1.00 each = $8.00 risk for a $119.00 profit.\r\n</span></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">1 x STANDARD LOT:\r\n</span><span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">8 trades at $10.00 each = $80.00 risk for a $1,190.00 profit.</span></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">FLASH TRADES:</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">PROFITS FROM SINGLE LOT COMPLETED FLASH TRADES:</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x MICRO-LOT:\r\n4 trades at $0.10 cents each = $0.40 cents risk for a $8.30 loss.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x MINI-LOT:\r\n4 trades at $1.00 each = $4.00 risk for a $83.00 loss.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x STANDARD LOT:\r\n4 trades at $10.00 each = $40.00 risk for a $830.00 loss.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">FUNDAMENTAL TRADES:</span></b></p>\r\nI took some real hits (losses) on the trades in this section this month. Please bear in mind my maximum trade size in this area was 3 x micro-lots. The trade sizes are small because the trades were set up to be long term and the trade size is small because of the currency pairs involved. They are all huge daily ATR pairs.\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">PROFITS FROM SINGLE LOT COMPLETED FUNDAMENTAL TRADES:</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x MICRO-LOT:\r\n4 trades at $0.10 cents each = $0.40 cents risk for a $49.40 loss.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x MINI-LOT:\r\n4 trades at $1.00 each = $4.00 risk for a $494.00 loss.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x STANDARD LOT:\r\n4 trades at $10.00 each = $40.00 risk for a $4,940.00 loss.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">COMBINED FLASH, RADAR AND FUNDAMENTAL TRADES PROFIT PERFORMANCE</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">JANUARY 2014…SO FAR:</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">TRADING MICRO-LOTS:\r\n16 trades at $0.10 cents each = $1.60 risk for a $45.80 loss.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">TRADING MINI-LOTS:\r\n16 trades at $1.00 each = $16.00 risk for a $458.00 loss.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">TRADING STANDARD LOTS:\r\n16 trades at $10.00 each = $160.00 risk for a $4,580.00 loss.</p>\r\nThe above examples are for illustration purposes only:\r\n\r\nThe profitability examples detailed above are based solely upon single lot trading, regardless of lot type. If multiple lot sizes are traded the profitability margins will be different than those shown.\r\n\r\nJust to provide more information so you understand where I am coming from with the risk / reward statements above. All of my trades are of different sizes and different size lot types. The above does not reflect the actual trading performance. I like to add to trades, profits are taken as the trade progresses and my overall cost average moves several times. All of my trades are of different lot styles. I trade a mixture of micro lots, mini lots and standard lots across my brokers.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">3. THE FUNDAMENTAL TRADERS OVERVIEW:</span></b><b> </b>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>DESPITE THE FACT DRAGHI DID NOTHING NEW TO HELP\r\nTHE EUROZONE PERIPHERY OR TACKLE DEFLATION THE EURO RALLIED!</b></p>\r\nAnother classic ECB press conference; I am now of the opinion, and maybe I am the last person to acknowledge this, but it’s not about what Draghi says, it’s more about what he doesn’t say.\r\n\r\nHoly mother of God, the Eurozone is suffering from DEFLATION. Eminent European economists are talking about it quite openly now. Not only does Draghi ignore DEFLATION, he’s sh** scarred to even utter the word, he uses DIS-INFLATION instead. Does he think we are nuts? It is what it is!\r\n\r\nLast Thursday just prior to Draghi pulling up his chair to the table the EUR/USD was trading sub 1.3500. By the time the press conference was completed it rallied from sub 1.3500, through 1.3500 and 1.3600 towards 1.3620…wowie!!\r\n\r\nIs everything in the Eurozone just fantastic?\r\n\r\nTo be fair, some data has improved and Draghi acknowledged the positive encouraging signs in the areas of recovery and the modest pickup in consumer demand, rise in confidence and stable savings rates across the Eurozone.\r\n\r\nAs far as was concerned, or did I miss this news? Isn’t the Eurozone in a bias to ease mode? In the press conference Draghi never mentioned ‘Emerging markets” concerns, worries about inflation, basic monetary conditions or the general pathetic Eurozone economic outlook. Having examined his comments last month and compared them to this latest presentation they were pretty much the same. All I can think is that the EUR bears just looked on as Draghi ignored worries about Eurozone growth and inflation; hence the rally.\r\n\r\nI think Draghi’s very modest referral to a more positive outlook just took the EUR/USD through 1.3600.\r\n\r\nDraghi still talked about the future concerns in the Eurozone being inflation or unwarranted market tightening as being triggers for further additional monetary actions from the ECB. The bottom line I suppose was he made it clear that the ECB was in no rush to increase any stimulus and he is no closer to easing, these things alone were probably enough to send the EUR higher.\r\n\r\nThe elephant in the room at the press conference is DEFLATION. Every economist is so scared of saying that the Eurozone is in DEFLATION for fears of the Eurozone mirroring what happened in Japan.\r\n\r\nThe best quote I found during the week was from Gilles Moec, chief European economist at Deutsche Bank.\r\n<p align=\"center\"><i>“We don’t know if we’re in deflation now, but we cannot afford to take the risk. The problem is that it’s very hard to know you’re in it, and usually when you do, it’s too late. That’s what Japan found”</i></p>\r\nThe Eurozone consumer prices were 0.7% higher in January (year on year) which matched the record low from October 2013. The ECB target is just below 2%. Why the big fear?\r\n\r\nIf a lack of inflation (DEFLATION or disinflation) takes hold, it leads to a decline in the following, the general level of pricing, it undermines growth, it has an effect on and lowers corporate earnings and it affects asset values, like real estate. If economies are burdened this way as pretty much all of the Eurozone is, DEFLATION can drive a downward spiral, in which borrowers are bankrupted by their inability to repay loans on assets that have dropped in value. It’s a nightmare. This happened in Japan, where land prices fell dramatically since the early 1990’s with catastrophic consequences for banks and companies, never mind ordinary individuals.\r\n\r\nInflation basically erodes the real value of loans, making it easier for borrowers to repay, DEFLATION does the opposite. It places stress on banks. Do you think all the Eurozone banks are ready for DEFLATION? Why is yet another bank stress test on the way?\r\n\r\nWhichever way you want to view this, Greece and Cyprus have been issuing price declines, and Portugal, Spain and Ireland are not that far away from zero. Even the Eurozone power-house Germany is haunted as prices there rose just 1.2% last month (year on year).\r\n\r\nHowever, Draghi did nothing to address DEFLATION concerns. He has said in the past that the ECB would consider all the tools at its disposal to fight DEFLATION. But he has also said that there is nothing to fear. He line is “The risks of DEFLATION or inflation are limited at this point of time”.\r\n\r\nInteresting…\r\n\r\nHere is my list from last week’s blog on my view on the issues that the ECB still has to fix, a week on and having had a chance to do something nothing has been done: -\r\n<p align=\"center\"><i>UNEMPLOYMENT (in particular youth unemployment)</i></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><i>DEFLATION</i></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><i>BANK LIQUIDITY (yet another stress test is being planned)</i></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><i>BANKING STRENGTH (The long awaited banking union)\r\nPERIPHERY GROWTH\r\nRESTORE MARKET CONFIDENCE IN HOUSING MARKETS</i></p>\r\nI still think that a Eurozone crisis is needed to bring matters to a head.\r\n\r\nA crisis will add fuel to USD strength and drive the EUR/USD towards 1.3000 and possibly below.\r\n\r\nDraghi, with Merkel (in Berlin) pulling his strings will procrastinate and say things are in-line with expectations. The backdrop is Germany has the chequebook and does not want the invoices to fix the Eurozone as well. I totally get it.\r\n\r\nAs a trader I want a Eurozone crisis….\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">4. TRADER TOPICS:</span></b>\r\n\r\nAs requested I am using this section this week to talk about the various uses of ATR’s in trading.\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">ATR (AVERAGE TRUE RANGE)</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">HOW I USE IT TO PLACE FUNDAMENTAL TRADES</span></b><b> </b></p>\r\nBefore looking at how I use the ATR, it may be of some use to define what the ATR is.\r\n\r\nThe Average True Range (ATR) indicator is a simple tool but is very useful in measuring volatility. In very simple terms, the ATR measures the price range of a currency pair (it could also be a stock or any security) so that the higher the volatility of the currency pair the higher the ATR.\r\n\r\nThe ATR is measured as the greatest of any of the following 3 metrics:\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>The current high minus the low.</li>\r\n	<li>The value of the current high minus the previous close.</li>\r\n	<li>The value of the current low minus the previous close.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nWhichever is the highest of these three metrics is then represented as the average true range of the currency pair. Typically, the number is then smoothed using a 14-day moving average.\r\n\r\nFinding the average range of a currency pair has a number of important implications that can help make better trading decisions.\r\n\r\nThe best example is for POSITION (FUNDAMENTAL) trading. These are trades intended to be of a very long-term nature.\r\n\r\nThere are a number of uses for the ATR as well as for my FUNDAMENTAL trade set-ups and I will add these as well.\r\n\r\nI have listed four ways below of how to use the ATR as a support indicator when placing a trade, or use it effectively when you are already in a trade.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b>1. How I use the ATR when placing a FUNDAMENTAL trade:</b>\r\n\r\nAs my approach for FUNDAMENTAL trades is from of a longer-term perspective, I look at the “Monthly ATR” for the currency pairs that I am interested in trading.\r\n\r\nThe background to my trades from my existing fundamental view is that equities are going to roll over and sell off and at the same time commodity currencies are going to weaken such as AUD, NZD and CAD.\r\n\r\nKeeping things very simple, which is what I try to do. I am going to use my existing live trades as examples.\r\n\r\nFirstly, I look for Fibonacci levels for entries in conjunction with pivot points. Once I have those levels analyzed, I look at my currency pair establish how much I am prepared to risk in the trade and what type of lot I will use and determine what quantity I will buy or sell based upon my proposed entry and stop loss levels.\r\n\r\nAs I have written, many, many times in my blogs certain currency pairs are very volatile and smaller trade sizes should be used to cope with and absorb the wild moves associated with such pairs. The ATR gives you a fantastic lead in connection with this.\r\n\r\nAdditionally, you can hedge any trades to give you another layer of protection given their longer-term nature. The potential for huge swings before your trade takes shape in the chosen direction is always there and hedging limits both your risk and exposure. (Hedging will appear as a future discussion topic in the TRADER TOPICS section)\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>GBP/NZD\r\nEntry Level: 2.1090\r\nMonthly ATR = 850\r\nATR Stop: 1.9340\r\n“My Stop” placed on the trade: 1.9500</b></p>\r\nAs you can see I have room to move the stop if I want to meet the ATR indicator levels, should I decide that I want to.\r\n\r\nYou must realize with such huge stop loss levels in place, an appropriate trade size should be set accordingly.\r\n\r\nAs an example, and, all my trades above are around these lot sizes: -\r\n\r\nGBP/NZD:\r\nPotential loss 850 pips.\r\nTrade size at outset 2 x micro lots (850 x $0.20) = $170.00 risk.\r\n\r\nIf I did not alter the lot size or the limit and the trade hits my limit/ target of 2.1200.\r\nTrade size 2 x micro lots (1,010 x $0.20) = $202.00 reward.\r\n\r\nObviously, when the trade is profitable I would add lot sizes and move / adjust my limit accordingly. I would add lots and take profits along the way to my profit target. As a minimum I would be looking for a 2:1 ratio.\r\n\r\nThey key is closing your hedge trade in the opposite direction at the correct time to maximize profitability. It is not that straightforward at times.\r\n\r\nThere are other uses for the ATR that are more traditional.\r\n\r\n<b> </b>\r\n\r\n<b>2. Using the ATR to trade volatility:</b>\r\n\r\nThe ATR can be used as a trading signal in its own right.\r\n\r\nLet’s say that you are watching a market for a number of days and you have noticed that volatility has dropped significantly from its historical average. Since low periods of volatility often precede explosive moves in either direction, you could wait for the ATR to increase and place a trade in the direction of the move.\r\n\r\nCrossovers can also be used. For example, placing a trade when the fast ATR (e.g. 14 period) crosses over a slower ATR (e.g. 100 period). This can be an effective breakout volatility strategy.\r\n\r\n<b> </b>\r\n\r\n<b>3. Using the ATR for profit targets:</b>\r\n\r\nFor day traders, knowing the average range of a currency pair is extremely useful since it allows you to estimate how much profit potential there is in the market.\r\n\r\nFor example, there is no point looking for 150 pips of profit from a trade in the GBP/USD, if the average range for that market over the last 14 days is only 80 pips. You will simply end up waiting for profits that do not come and will likely end up losing money.\r\n\r\nA better solution is to halve the 14-day ATR and use this as your profit target. In other words, after entering a trade in the GBP/USD as above you can give yourself a profit target of around 40 pips. This is a much safer way to trade.\r\n\r\n<b> </b>\r\n\r\n<b>4. Using the ATR as a filter:</b>\r\n\r\nThe average true range is also a good indicator to use for filtering out trades.\r\n\r\nTraders typically need volatility to make any money so if you have a system that generates lots of different signals; you can filter out those currency pairs that are low in volatility by discarding those with a low ATR. Concentrating on currency pairs with the highest ATR’s mean you can trade the markets that are experiencing the most movement and therefore the most profit potential.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span>\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">5. MY CURRENT LIVE TRADES:</span></b>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">FLASH TRADES:</span></b></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>FT23</strong>\r\n<strong>AUD/CAD</strong>\r\n<strong>Long</strong>\r\n<strong>Cost Average: 0.9891</strong>\r\n<strong>Stop Loss: 0.9400</strong>\r\n<strong>Limit / Target: 1.0400</strong>\r\n<strong>My Position Size: 10%</strong>\r\n<strong>Closing Weekly Position:0.9882</strong>\r\n<strong><span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">My present Profit/Loss position:  -13pips</span></strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>FT24</strong>\r\n<strong>USD/CAD</strong>\r\n<strong>Long</strong>\r\n<strong>Cost Average: 1.0989</strong>\r\n<strong>Stop Loss: 1.1011 (Protected Stop)</strong>\r\n<strong>Limit / Target: 1.520</strong>\r\n<strong>My Position Size: 40%</strong>\r\n<strong>Closing Weekly Position: 1.1032</strong>\r\n<strong><span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">My present Profit/Loss position:  +43pips</span></strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">RADAR TRADES:</span></strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">No live RADAR TRADES at the present time.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">FUNDAMENTAL TRADES:</span></b></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">No live FUNDAMENTAL TRADES at the present time.</p>\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">6. TRADES THAT ARE ON MY RADAR:</span></b>\r\n\r\nI have the following two RADAR trades that I will be placing with my brokers on Sunday evening (09.02.2014). There are other trades and I will add these on Monday should the consolidation take place that I think will happen.\r\n<p align=\"center\">USD/CHF\r\nLong\r\nEntry Level: 0.0.8960\r\nStop Loss: 0.8880\r\nLimit / Target: 0.9250</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">EUR/AUD\r\nLong\r\nEntry Level: 1.5235\r\nStop Loss 1.4950\r\nLimit /Target 1.5450\r\n<b style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">PLEASE NOTE</span></b><b style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">:</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">(If you are contemplating this trade which traces an inverted\r\n“Head and Shoulders” pattern on the 60 minute chart. Please take smaller positions to cope with the volatility that could be involved with this trade)</p>\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">7. LOOKING FORWARD…THE KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS:</span></b>\r\n\r\n<b>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3634.</b>  Despite all the shenanigans during the week we ended only 40 pips lower than last week. We had a major sell off and two bullish events and we still did not break the trading range of 1.3475 to 1.3650, although we are very close to resistance. Early next week we should know if we are are we heading back towards 1.4000 or aiming lower towards 1.3000. This pair holds the key to the currency moves ahead. I really hope that these trading ranges will break soon; it is becoming a little boring. The S&amp;P needs to hold resistance at 1800. At this level I think that there is a good chance that we turn lower once again\r\n\r\n<b>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.6410.  </b>I have very similar comments regarding cable as I just wrote about the EUR/USD. We saw about a 60 pip reduction in the past week.  At the start of the day on NFP (Friday) I had in mind that a short at around 1.6400 in cable would be a good entry. We will have to wait into the start of next week to re-assess the position. The next stopping point upwards is 1.6500-1.6520 and support lies at 1.6250. I may well issue a FLASH trade tweet about cable short early next week. Recent economic data from the UK has been rather muted and it looks like a downside move may be on the cards once the bullishness of NFP is out of the way.\r\n\r\n<b>AUD/USD: Closing Price 0.8958</b>.  I think that we are in a bullish trend at the moment with this pair. I am viewing this move as just a better entry price to head lower once again. Equities will have a lot to say about the future moves I think. Should the S&amp;P rollover at 1800 the AUD/USD should follow. Looking at the charts I think that we may see a run to the psychological 0.9000, maybe resistance as high as 0.9200. Big support is at 0.8876 and then below at 0.8750.\r\n\r\n<b>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8293</b>.  Probably in sympathy will the AUD/USD this pair has held up very well in the past week. Like the GBP/USD just before NFP, I had in my mind that 0.8300 would be a great area to look to short. Once again early next week there could be a FLASH trade alert on this pair.  In addition and like the AUD/USD, equities will point us in the correct direction with regards to this pair. At the moment, I think we may test levels a little higher towards 0.8400. Support is really good at 0.8185.<b> </b>\r\n\r\n<b>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.1032.</b>  I think that the CAD currency is quite weak at the moment and should we break out through 1.1125; we should see 1.1200 pretty soon. Support is good at 1.0950.\r\n\r\n<b>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.8982</b>.  We are bouncing around in a range of 0.9850 to 0.9080. We need this range to break to give us direction. I think that it is pointless looking at this pair to trade at the moment.\r\n\r\n<b>USD/JPY: Closing Price 102.31. </b> With all the movement, we only moved down one pip in the week! We have however consolidated at a lower level and this fact should not be missed. Moving forward the range is basically what it has been all week 101.75 to 102.80.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">8. MAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:</span></b>\r\n\r\nSUNDAY: N/A\r\n\r\nMONDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: USD – Janet Yellen testifies\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: GBP – BOE Carney speaks &amp; BOE Inflation Report\r\nWEDNESDAY: EUR – Draghi speaks.\r\nWEDNESDAY: AUD – Unemployment Rate.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: USD – Core Retail Sales &amp; Retail Sales and Janet Yellen testifies.\r\nTHURSDAY: CNY - CPi\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: CAD – Manufacturing Sales.\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b>\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">9. FINAL THOUGHTS:</span></b>\r\n\r\nI am expecting consolidation early next week. So, with that in mind, always, always remember that there is a market everyday. You do not need to trade everyday to make your financial goals.\r\n\r\nGood luck and trade within your TRADE PLAN guidelines and most importantly use MONEY MANAGEMENT SKILLS to control your risks.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nSaturday February 8th 2014\r\n\r\nEMAIL / FOLLOW ME AT:\r\npremiumservice@weeklyfxdrivethru.com\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\nTwitter: @ThePremService\r\n<span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">Google+/scottpickering\r\n</span><span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">StockTwits; thepipaccumulator</span>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','DESPITE THE FACT DRAGHI DID NOTHING NEW TO HELP  THE EUROZONE PERIPHERY OR TACKLE DEFLATION THE EURO RALLIED!','','inherit','open','closed','','3203-revision-v1','','','2014-02-08 11:26:35','2014-02-08 16:26:35','',3203,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/3203-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(3205,1,'2014-02-08 11:25:17','2014-02-08 16:25:17','#3 – PREMIUM SERVICE\r\n08.02.2014<b> </b>\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">1. INTRODUCTION:</span></b>\r\n\r\nWell, that was a very difficult week to understand at times.\r\n\r\nThe three major news events in the week that interested me had me a little confused and perplexed:\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">RBA Interest Rate Announcement and Statement:</span>\r\n\r\nInterest rates were left unchanged, this was strongly believed to be what would happen so there were no surprises but I found the policy statement a little confusing.\r\nFor the past few months RBA Governor Stevens had been talking down AUD strength and even went so far as to say that an exchange rate level of about 0.8500 would be a reasonable level as far as the Central Bank was concerned.\r\nNow we witness an about turn, we are all bullish again, and things were maybe not so bad as we had been saying for the past few months. The comment in the press release regarding currency guidance has now been removed.\r\nThe result on this RBA “Hallelujah moment” (positive view) was that the AUD/USD rallied from near critical support levels of 0.8660 back towards 0.8900.\r\nThis move offers up the potential for some great entries short again in the near future if the equities markets sell off.\r\nThe downside of this change in RBA sentiment from a personal viewpoint were that my FUNDAMENTAL AUD and NZD (in sympathy) cross-rate trades, were whacked across the board, and I decided to exit with losses.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">ECB Interest Rate and Press Conference:</span>\r\n\r\nOnce again I found the market reaction to Draghi’s comments a little strange to say the least. I am commenting later in the blog about this particular news event.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls:</span>\r\n\r\nAnother big miss, that’s two months in a row. As usual with NFP there is an instant ‘Knee-jerk” reaction probably in line with your thinking……then it turns and runs off in the opposite direction. It did exactly this once again, futures took a poor number on the chin and then they rallied back hard to end the day 23.59 points (1.33%) positive.\r\nIf you get suckered into move it can be very costly. I tweeted several times across both ‘Twitter Accounts” not to get suckered. I hope that you didn’t.\r\nSo the big question is of course, is the U.S. economy as strong as we are being told and is the FED on its tapering course no matter what because the cost of an expanding balance sheet through QE is having minimal effect and we are in economic terms seeing a decreasing returns to scale. By that I mean, what has QE (Quantitative Easing) actually done apart from give the greed of Wall Street support. What has it done for unemployment and housing?\r\n\r\nThe ramifications of two jobs misses will be debated for the next few weeks…watch this space.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">2. TRADING SUMMARY:</span></b>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">RADAR, FLASH and FUNDAMENTAL TRADES</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">FEBRUARY 2014 and YEAR to date:</span></b></p>\r\nIt was a great start to the week and with primary market moving data towards the end of the week I traded less and basically observed. So on a pure volume of trades basis it was quiet.\r\n\r\nThe big news was that I exited all the FUNDAMENTAL trades and took losses. I hedge these, and, I am going to write about my approach to hedging in next week’s blog. My reason for exiting with hedging in place was that because they are commodity cross-rates I hate the way the overnight swap costs rise and I was looking at market sentiment changes that could be around for the coming weeks.  With my longer-term trades I like to have momentum behind me. I never did with any of the trades involved.\r\n\r\nBelow I show the up to date performances for my various trading styles. Full excel spreadsheets are in the subscriber area of the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">RADAR TRADES:</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">PROFITS FROM SINGLE LOT COMPLETED RADAR TRADES:</span></b></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"> 1 x MICRO-LOT:\r\n8 trades at $0.10 cents each = $0.80 cents risk for a $11.90 profit.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">1 x MINI-LOT:\r\n</span><span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">8 trades at $1.00 each = $8.00 risk for a $119.00 profit.\r\n</span></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">1 x STANDARD LOT:\r\n</span><span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">8 trades at $10.00 each = $80.00 risk for a $1,190.00 profit.</span></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">FLASH TRADES:</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">PROFITS FROM SINGLE LOT COMPLETED FLASH TRADES:</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x MICRO-LOT:\r\n4 trades at $0.10 cents each = $0.40 cents risk for a $8.30 loss.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x MINI-LOT:\r\n4 trades at $1.00 each = $4.00 risk for a $83.00 loss.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x STANDARD LOT:\r\n4 trades at $10.00 each = $40.00 risk for a $830.00 loss.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">FUNDAMENTAL TRADES:</span></b></p>\r\nI took some real hits (losses) on the trades in this section this month. Please bear in mind my maximum trade size in this area was 3 x micro-lots. The trade sizes are small because the trades were set up to be long term and the trade size is small because of the currency pairs involved. They are all huge daily ATR pairs.\r\n<p align=\"center\"></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">PROFITS FROM SINGLE LOT COMPLETED FUNDAMENTAL TRADES:</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x MICRO-LOT:\r\n4 trades at $0.10 cents each = $0.40 cents risk for a $49.40 loss.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x MINI-LOT:\r\n4 trades at $1.00 each = $4.00 risk for a $494.00 loss.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x STANDARD LOT:\r\n4 trades at $10.00 each = $40.00 risk for a $4,940.00 loss.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">COMBINED FLASH, RADAR AND FUNDAMENTAL TRADES PROFIT PERFORMANCE</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">JANUARY 2014…SO FAR:</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">TRADING MICRO-LOTS:\r\n16 trades at $0.10 cents each = $1.60 risk for a $45.80 loss.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">TRADING MINI-LOTS:\r\n16 trades at $1.00 each = $16.00 risk for a $458.00 loss.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">TRADING STANDARD LOTS:\r\n16 trades at $10.00 each = $160.00 risk for a $4,580.00 loss.</p>\r\nThe above examples are for illustration purposes only:\r\n\r\nThe profitability examples detailed above are based solely upon single lot trading, regardless of lot type. If multiple lot sizes are traded the profitability margins will be different than those shown.\r\n\r\nJust to provide more information so you understand where I am coming from with the risk / reward statements above. All of my trades are of different sizes and different size lot types. The above does not reflect the actual trading performance. I like to add to trades, profits are taken as the trade progresses and my overall cost average moves several times. All of my trades are of different lot styles. I trade a mixture of micro lots, mini lots and standard lots across my brokers.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">3. THE FUNDAMENTAL TRADERS OVERVIEW:</span></b><b> </b>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>DESPITE THE FACT DRAGHI DID NOTHING NEW TO HELP\r\nTHE EUROZONE PERIPHERY OR TACKLE DEFLATION THE EURO RALLIED!</b></p>\r\nAnother classic ECB press conference; I am now of the opinion, and maybe I am the last person to acknowledge this, but it’s not about what Draghi says, it’s more about what he doesn’t say.\r\n\r\nHoly mother of God, the Eurozone is suffering from DEFLATION. Eminent European economists are talking about it quite openly now. Not only does Draghi ignore DEFLATION, he’s sh** scarred to even utter the word, he uses DIS-INFLATION instead. Does he think we are nuts? It is what it is!\r\n\r\nLast Thursday just prior to Draghi pulling up his chair to the table the EURUSD was trading sub 1.3500. By the time the press conference was completed it rallied from sub 1.3500, through 1.3500 and 1.3600 towards 1.3620…wowie!!\r\n\r\nIs everything in the Eurozone just fantastic?\r\n\r\nTo be fair, some data has improved and Draghi acknowledged the positive encouraging signs in the areas of recovery and the modest pickup in consumer demand, rise in confidence and stable savings rates across the Eurozone.\r\n\r\nAs far as was concerned, or did I miss this news? Isn’t the Eurozone in a bias to ease mode? In the press conference Draghi never mentioned ‘Emerging markets” concerns, worries about inflation, basic monetary conditions or the general pathetic Eurozone economic outlook. Having examined his comments last month and compared them to this latest presentation they were pretty much the same. All I can think is that the EUR bears just looked on as Draghi ignored worries about Eurozone growth and inflation; hence the rally.\r\n\r\nI think Draghi’s very modest referral to a more positive outlook just took the EUR/USD through 1.3600.\r\n\r\nDraghi still talked about the future concerns in the Eurozone being inflation or unwarranted market tightening as being triggers for further additional monetary actions from the ECB. The bottom line I suppose was he made it clear that the ECB was in no rush to increase any stimulus and he is no closer to easing, these things alone were probably enough to send the EUR higher.\r\n\r\nThe elephant in the room at the press conference is DEFLATION. Every economist is so scared of saying that the Eurozone is in DEFLATION for fears of the Eurozone mirroring what happened in Japan.\r\n\r\nThe best quote I found during the week was from Gilles Moec, chief European economist at Deutsche Bank.\r\n<p align=\"center\"><i>“We don’t know if we’re in deflation now, but we cannot afford to take the risk. The problem is that it’s very hard to know you’re in it, and usually when you do, it’s too late. That’s what Japan found”</i></p>\r\nThe Eurozone consumer prices were 0.7% higher in January (year on year) which matched the record low from October 2013. The ECB target is just below 2%. Why the big fear?\r\n\r\nIf a lack of inflation (DEFLATION or disinflation) takes hold, it leads to a decline in the following, the general level of pricing, it undermines growth, it has an effect on and lowers corporate earnings and it effects asset values, like real estate. If economies are burdened this way as pretty much all of the Eurozone is, DEFLATION can drive a downward spiral, in which borrowers are bankrupted by their inability to repay loans on assets that have dropped in value. It’s a nightmare. This happened in Japan, where land prices fell dramatically since the early 1990’s with catastrophic consequences for banks and companies, never mind ordinary individuals.\r\n\r\nInflation basically erodes the real value of loans, making it easier for borrowers to repay, DEFLATION does the opposite. It places stress on banks. Do you think all the Eurozone banks are ready for DEFLATION? Why is yet another bank stress test on the way?\r\n\r\nWhichever way you want to view this, Greece and Cyprus have been issuing price declines, and Portugal, Spain and Ireland are not that far away from zero. Even the Eurozone power-house Germany is haunted as prices there rose just 1.2% last month (year on year).\r\n\r\nHowever, Draghi did nothing to address DEFLATION concerns. He has said in the past that the ECB would consider all the tools at its disposal to fight DEFLATION. But he has also said that there is nothing to fear. He line is “The risks of DELATION or inflation are limited at this point of time”.\r\n\r\nInteresting…\r\n\r\nHere is my list from last week’s blog on my view on the issues that the ECB still has to fix, a week on and having had a chance to do something nothing has been done: -\r\n<p align=\"center\"><i>UNEMPLOYMENT (in particular youth unemployment)</i></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><i>DEFLATION</i></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><i>BANK LIQUIDITY (yet another stress test is being planned)</i></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><i>BANKING STRENGTH (The long awaited banking union)\r\nPERIPHERY GROWTH\r\nRESTORE MARKET CONFIDENCE IN HOUSING MARKETS</i></p>\r\nI still think that a Eurozone crisis is needed to bring matters to a head.\r\n\r\nA crisis will add fuel to USD strength and drive the EUR/USD towards 1.3000 and possibly below.\r\n\r\nDraghi, with Merkel (in Berlin) pulling his strings will procrastinate and say things are in-line with expectations. The backdrop is Germany has the chequebook and does not want the invoices to fix the Eurozone as well. I totally get it.\r\n\r\nAs a trader I want a Eurozone crisis….\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">4. TRADER TOPICS:</span></b>\r\n\r\nAs requested I am using this section this week to talk about the various uses of ATR’s in trading.\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">ATR (AVERAGE TRUE RANGE)</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">HOW I USE IT TO PLACE FUNDAMENTAL TRADES</span></b><b> </b></p>\r\nBefore looking at how I use the ATR, it may be of some use to define what the ATR is.\r\n\r\nThe Average True Range (ATR) indicator is a simple tool but is very useful in measuring volatility. In very simple terms, the ATR measures the price range of a currency pair (it could also be a stock or any security) so that the higher the volatility of the currency pair the higher the ATR.\r\n\r\nThe ATR is measured as the greatest of any of the following 3 metrics:\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>The current high minus the low.</li>\r\n	<li>The value of the current high minus the previous close.</li>\r\n	<li>The value of the current low minus the previous close.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nWhichever is the highest of these three metrics is then represented as the average true range of the currency pair. Typically, the number is then smoothed using a 14-day moving average.\r\n\r\nFinding the average range of a currency pair has a number of important implications that can help make better trading decisions.\r\n\r\nThe best example is for POSITION (FUNDAMENTAL) trading. These are trades intended to be of a very long-term nature.\r\n\r\nThere are a number of uses for the ATR as well as for my FUNDAMENTAL trade set-ups and I will add these as well.\r\n\r\nI have listed four ways below of how to use the ATR as a support indicator when placing a trade, or use it effectively when you are already in a trade.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b>1. How I use the ATR when placing a FUNDAMENTAL trade:</b>\r\n\r\nAs my approach for FUNDAMENTAL trades is from of a longer-term perspective, I look at the “Monthly ATR” for the currency pairs that I am interested in trading.\r\n\r\nThe background to my trades from my existing fundamental view is that equities are going to roll over and sell off and at the same time commodity currencies are going to weaken such as AUD, NZD and CAD.\r\n\r\nKeeping things very simple, which is what I try to do. I am going to use my existing live trades as examples.\r\n\r\nFirstly, I look for Fibonacci levels for entries in conjunction with pivot points. Once I have those levels analyzed, I look at my currency pair establish how much I am prepared to risk in the trade and what type of lot I will use and determine what quantity I will buy or sell based upon my proposed entry and stop loss levels.\r\n\r\nAs I have written, many, many times in my blogs certain currency pairs are very volatile and smaller trade sizes should be used to cope with and absorb the wild moves associated with such pairs. The ATR gives you a fantastic lead in connection with this.\r\n\r\nAdditionally, you can hedge any trades to give you another layer of protection given their longer-term nature. The potential for huge swings before your trade takes shape in the chosen direction is always there and hedging limits both your risk and exposure. (Hedging will appear as a future discussion topic in the TRADER TOPICS section)\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>GBP/NZD\r\nEntry Level: 2.1090\r\nMonthly ATR = 850\r\nATR Stop: 1.9340\r\n“My Stop” placed on the trade: 1.9500</b></p>\r\nAs you can see I have room to move the stop if I want to meet the ATR indicator levels, should I decide that I want to.\r\n\r\nYou must realize with such huge stop loss levels in place, an appropriate trade size should be set accordingly.\r\n\r\nAs an example, and, all my trades above are around these lot sizes: -\r\n\r\nGBP/NZD:\r\nPotential loss 850 pips.\r\nTrade size at outset 2 x micro lots (850 x $0.20) = $170.00 risk.\r\n\r\nIf I did not alter the lot size or the limit and the trade hits my limit/ target of 2.1200.\r\nTrade size 2 x micro lots (1,010 x $0.20) = $202.00 reward.\r\n\r\nObviously, when the trade is profitable I would add lot sizes and move / adjust my limit accordingly. I would add lots and take profits along the way to my profit target. As a minimum I would be looking for a 2:1 ratio.\r\n\r\nThey key is closing your hedge trade in the opposite direction at the correct time to maximize profitability. It is not that straightforward at times.\r\n\r\nThere are other uses for the ATR that are more traditional.\r\n\r\n<b> </b>\r\n\r\n<b>2. Using the ATR to trade volatility:</b>\r\n\r\nThe ATR can be used as a trading signal in its own right.\r\n\r\nLet’s say that you are watching a market for a number of days and you have noticed that volatility has dropped significantly from its historical average. Since low periods of volatility often precede explosive moves in either direction, you could wait for the ATR to increase and place a trade in the direction of the move.\r\n\r\nCrossovers can also be used. For example, placing a trade when the fast ATR (e.g. 14 period) crosses over a slower ATR (e.g. 100 period). This can be an effective breakout volatility strategy.\r\n\r\n<b> </b>\r\n\r\n<b>3. Using the ATR for profit targets:</b>\r\n\r\nFor day traders, knowing the average range of a currency pair is extremely useful since it allows you to estimate how much profit potential there is in the market.\r\n\r\nFor example, there is no point looking for 150 pips of profit from a trade in the GBP/USD, if the average range for that market over the last 14 days is only 80 pips. You will simply end up waiting for profits that do not come and will likely end up losing money.\r\n\r\nA better solution is to halve the 14-day ATR and use this as your profit target. In other words, after entering a trade in the GBP/USD as above you can give yourself a profit target of around 40 pips. This is a much safer way to trade.\r\n\r\n<b> </b>\r\n\r\n<b>4. Using the ATR as a filter:</b>\r\n\r\nThe average true range is also a good indicator to use for filtering out trades.\r\n\r\nTraders typically need volatility to make any money so if you have a system that generates lots of different signals; you can filter out those currency pairs that are low in volatility by discarding those with a low ATR. Concentrating on currency pairs with the highest ATR’s mean you can trade the markets that are experiencing the most movement and therefore the most profit potential.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span>\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">5. MY CURRENT LIVE TRADES:</span></b>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">FLASH TRADES:</span></b></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>FT23</strong>\r\n<strong>AUD/CAD</strong>\r\n<strong>Long</strong>\r\n<strong>Cost Average: 0.9891</strong>\r\n<strong>Stop Loss: 0.9400</strong>\r\n<strong>Limit / Target: 1.0400</strong>\r\n<strong>My Position Size: 10%</strong>\r\n<strong>Closing Weekly Position:0.9882</strong>\r\n<strong><span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">My present Profit/Loss position:  -13pips</span></strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>FT24</strong>\r\n<strong>USD/CAD</strong>\r\n<strong>Long</strong>\r\n<strong>Cost Average: 1.0989</strong>\r\n<strong>Stop Loss: 1.1011 (Protected Stop)</strong>\r\n<strong>Limit / Target: 1.520</strong>\r\n<strong>My Position Size: 40%</strong>\r\n<strong>Closing Weekly Position: 1.1032</strong>\r\n<strong><span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">My present Profit/Loss position:  +43pips</span></strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">RADAR TRADES:</span></strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">No live RADAR TRADES at the present time.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">FUNDAMENTAL TRADES:</span></b></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">No live FUNDAMENTAL TRADES at the present time.</p>\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">6. TRADES THAT ARE ON MY RADAR:</span></b>\r\n\r\nI have the following two RADAR trades that I will be placing with my brokers on Sunday evening (09.02.2014). There are other trades and I will add these on Monday should the consolidation take place that I think will happen.\r\n<p align=\"center\">USD/CHF\r\nLong\r\nEntry Level: 0.0.8960\r\nStop Loss: 0.8880\r\nLimit / Target: 0.9250</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">EUR/AUD\r\nLong\r\nEntry Level: 1.5235\r\nStop Loss 1.4950\r\nLimit /Target 1.5450\r\n<b style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">PLEASE NOTE</span></b><b style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">:</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">(If you are contemplating this trade which traces an inverted\r\n“Head and Shoulders” pattern on the 60 minute chart. Please take smaller positions to cope with the volatility that could be involved with this trade)</p>\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">7. LOOKING FORWARD…THE KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS:</span></b>\r\n\r\n<b>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3634.</b>  Despite all the shenanigans during the week we ended only 40 pips lower than last week. We had a major sell off and two bullish events and we still did not break the trading range of 1.3475 to 1.3650, although we are very close to resistance. Early next week we should know if we are are we heading back towards 1.4000 or aiming lower towards 1.3000. This pair holds the key to the currency moves ahead. I really hope that these trading ranges will break soon; it is becoming a little boring. The S&amp;P needs to hold resistance at 1800. At this level I think that there is a good chance that we turn lower once again\r\n\r\n<b>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.6410.  </b>I have very similar comments regarding cable as I just wrote about the EUR/USD. We saw about a 60 pip reduction in the past week.  At the start of the day on NFP (Friday) I had in mind that a short at around 1.6400 in cable would be a good entry. We will have to wait into the start of next week to re-assess the position. The next stopping point upwards is 1.6500-1.6520 and support lies at 1.6250. I may well issue a FLASH trade tweet about cable short early next week. Recent economic data from the UK has been rather muted and it looks like a downside move may be on the cards once the bullishness of NFP is out of the way.\r\n\r\n<b>AUD/USD: Closing Price 0.8958</b>.  I think that we are in a bullish trend at the moment with this pair. I am viewing this move as just a better entry price to head lower once again. Equities will have a lot to say about the future moves I think. Should the S&amp;P rollover at 1800 the AUD/USD should follow. Looking at the charts I think that we may see a run to the psychological 0.9000, maybe resistance as high as 0.9200. Big support is at 0.8876 and then below at 0.8750.\r\n\r\n<b>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8293</b>.  Probably in sympathy will the AUD/USD this pair has held up very well in the past week. Like the GBP/USD just before NFP, I had in my mind that 0.8300 would be a great area to look to short. Once again early next week there could be a FLASH trade alert on this pair.  In addition and like the AUD/USD, equities will point us in the correct direction with regards to this pair. At the moment, I think we may test levels a little higher towards 0.8400. Support is really good at 0.8185.<b> </b>\r\n\r\n<b>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.1032.</b>  I think that the CAD currency is quite weak at the moment and should we break out through 1.1125; we should see 1.1200 pretty soon. Support is good at 1.0950.\r\n\r\n<b>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.8982</b>.  We are bouncing around in a range of 0.9850 to 0.9080. We need this range to break to give us direction. I think that it is pointless looking at this pair to trade at the moment.\r\n\r\n<b>USD/JPY: Closing Price 102.31. </b> With all the movement, we only moved down one pip in the week! We have however consolidated at a lower level and this fact should not be missed. Moving forward the range is basically what it has been all week 101.75 to 102.80.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">8. MAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:</span></b>\r\n\r\nSUNDAY: N/A\r\n\r\nMONDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: USD – Janet Yellen testifies\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: GBP – BOE Carney speaks &amp; BOE Inflation Report\r\nWEDNESDAY: EUR – Draghi speaks.\r\nWEDNESDAY: AUD – Unemployment Rate.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: USD – Core Retail Sales &amp; Retail Sales and Janet Yellen testifies.\r\nTHURSDAY: CNY - CPi\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: CAD – Manufacturing Sales.\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b>\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">9. FINAL THOUGHTS:</span></b>\r\n\r\nI am expecting consolidation early next week. So, with that in mind, always, always remember that there is a market everyday. You do not need to trade everyday to make your financial goals.\r\n\r\nGood luck and trade within your TRADE PLAN guidelines and most importantly use MONEY MANGEMENT SKILLS to control your risks.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nSaturday February 8th 2014\r\n\r\nEMAIL / FOLLOW ME AT:\r\npremiumservice@weeklyfxdrivethru.com\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\nTwitter: @ThePremService\r\n<span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">Google+/scottpickering\r\n</span><span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">StockTwits; thepipaccumulator</span>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','DESPITE THE FACT DRAGHI DID NOTHING NEW TO HELP  THE EUROZONE PERIPHERY OR TACKLE DEFLATION THE EURO RALLIED!','','inherit','open','closed','','3203-revision-v1','','','2014-02-08 11:25:17','2014-02-08 16:25:17','',3203,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/3203-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(3212,1,'2014-02-08 11:40:57','2014-02-08 16:40:57','WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU\n08.02.2014\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">1. INTRODUCTION:</span></b>\n\nWell, that was a very difficult week to understand at times.\n\nThe three major news events in the week that interested me had me a little confused and perplexed:\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">RBA Interest Rate Announcement and Statement:</span>\n\nInterest rates were left unchanged, this was strongly believed to be what would happen so there were no surprises but I found the policy statement a little confusing.\nFor the past few months RBA Governor Stevens had been talking down AUD strength and even went so far as to say that an exchange rate level of about 0.8500 would be a reasonable level as far as the Central Bank was concerned.\nNow we witness an about turn, we are all bullish again, and things were maybe not so bad as we had been saying for the past few months. The comment in the press release regarding currency guidance has now been removed.\nThe result on this RBA “Hallelujah moment” (positive view) was that the AUD/USD rallied from near critical support levels of 0.8660 back towards 0.8900.\nThis move offers up the potential for some great entries short again in the near future if the equities markets sell off.\nThe downside of this change in RBA sentiment from a personal viewpoint were that my FUNDAMENTAL AUD and NZD (in sympathy) cross-rate trades, were whacked across the board, and I decided to exit with losses.\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">ECB Interest Rate and Press Conference:</span>\n\nOnce again I found the market reaction to Draghi’s comments a little strange to say the least. I am commenting later in the blog about this particular news event.\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls:</span>\n\nAnother big miss, that’s two months in a row. As usual with NFP there is an instant ‘Knee-jerk” reaction probably in line with your thinking……then it turns and runs off in the opposite direction. It did exactly this once again, futures took a poor number on the chin and then they rallied back hard to end the day 23.59 points (1.33%) positive.\nIf you get suckered into move it can be very costly. I tweeted several times across both ‘Twitter Accounts” not to get suckered. I hope that you didn’t.\nSo the big question is of course, is the U.S. economy as strong as we are being told and is the FED on its tapering course no matter what because the cost of an expanding balance sheet through QE is having minimal effect and we are in economic terms seeing a decreasing returns to scale. By that I mean, what has QE (Quantitative Easing) actually done apart from give the greed of Wall Street support. What has it done for unemployment and housing?\n\nThe ramifications of two jobs misses will be debated for the next few weeks…watch this space.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">2. THE VIEW FROM MY TRADING DESK:</span></b>\n<p align=\"center\"><b> </b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>DESPITE THE FACT DRAGHI DID NOTHING NEW TO HELP\nTHE EUROZONE PERIPHERY OR TACKLE DEFLATION THE EURO RALLIED!</b></p>\nAnother classic ECB press conference; I am now of the opinion, and maybe I am the last person to acknowledge this, but it’s not about what Draghi says, it’s more about what he doesn’t say.\n\nHoly mother of God, the Eurozone is suffering from DEFLATION. Eminent European economists are talking about it quite openly now. Not only does Draghi ignore DEFLATION, he’s sh** scarred to even utter the word, he uses DIS-INFLATION instead. Does he think we are nuts? It is what it is!\n\nLast Thursday just prior to Draghi pulling up his chair to the table the EUR/USD was trading sub 1.3500. By the time the press conference was completed it rallied from sub 1.3500, through 1.3500 and 1.3600 towards 1.3620…wowie!!\n\nIs everything in the Eurozone just fantastic?\n\nTo be fair, some data has improved and Draghi acknowledged the positive encouraging signs in the areas of recovery and the modest pickup in consumer demand, rise in confidence and stable savings rates across the Eurozone.\n\nAs far as was concerned, or did I miss this news? Isn’t the Eurozone in a bias to ease mode? In the press conference Draghi never mentioned ‘Emerging markets” concerns, worries about inflation, basic monetary conditions or the general pathetic Eurozone economic outlook. Having examined his comments last month and compared them to this latest presentation they were pretty much the same. All I can think is that the EUR bears just looked on as Draghi ignored worries about Eurozone growth and inflation; hence the rally.\n\nI think Draghi’s very modest referral to a more positive outlook just took the EUR/USD through 1.3600.\n\nDraghi still talked about the future concerns in the Eurozone being inflation or unwarranted market tightening as being triggers for further additional monetary actions from the ECB. The bottom line I suppose was he made it clear that the ECB was in no rush to increase any stimulus and he is no closer to easing, these things alone were probably enough to send the EUR higher.\n\nThe elephant in the room at the press conference is DEFLATION. Every economist is so scared of saying that the Eurozone is in DEFLATION for fears of the Eurozone mirroring what happened in Japan.\n\nThe best quote I found during the week was from Gilles Moec, chief European economist at Deutsche Bank.\n<p align=\"center\"><i>“We don’t know if we’re in deflation now, but we cannot afford to take the risk. The problem is that it’s very hard to know you’re in it, and usually when you do, it’s too late. That’s what Japan found”</i></p>\nThe Eurozone consumer prices were 0.7% higher in January (year on year) which matched the record low from October 2013. The ECB target is just below 2%. Why the big fear?\n\nIf a lack of inflation (DEFLATION or disinflation) takes hold, it leads to a decline in the following, the general level of pricing, it undermines growth, it has an effect on and lowers corporate earnings and it affects asset values, like real estate. If economies are burdened this way as pretty much all of the Eurozone is, DEFLATION can drive a downward spiral, in which borrowers are bankrupted by their inability to repay loans on assets that have dropped in value. It’s a nightmare. This happened in Japan, where land prices fell dramatically since the early 1990’s with catastrophic consequences for banks and companies, never mind ordinary individuals.\n\nInflation basically erodes the real value of loans, making it easier for borrowers to repay, DEFLATION does the opposite. It places stress on banks. Do you think all the Eurozone banks are ready for DEFLATION? Why is yet another bank stress test on the way?\n\nWhichever way you want to view this, Greece and Cyprus have been issuing price declines, and Portugal, Spain and Ireland are not that far away from zero. Even the Eurozone power-house Germany is haunted as prices there rose just 1.2% last month (year on year).\n\nHowever, Draghi did nothing to address DEFLATION concerns. He has said in the past that the ECB would consider all the tools at its disposal to fight DEFLATION. But he has also said that there is nothing to fear. He line is “The risks of DELATION or inflation are limited at this point of time”.\n\nInteresting…\n\nHere is my list from last week’s blog on my view on the issues that the ECB still has to fix, a week on and having had a chance to do something nothing has been done: -\n\n&nbsp;\n<p align=\"center\"><i>UNEMPLOYMENT (in particular youth unemployment)</i></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><i>DEFLATION</i></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><i>BANK LIQUIDITY (yet another stress test is being planned)</i></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><i>BANKING STRENGTH (The long awaited banking union)\nPERIPHERY GROWTH\nRESTORE MARKET CONFIDENCE IN HOUSING MARKETS</i></p>\nI still think that a Eurozone crisis is needed to bring matters to a head.\n\nA crisis will add fuel to USD strength and drive the EUR/USD towards 1.3000 and possibly below.\n\nDraghi, with Merkel (in Berlin) pulling his strings will procrastinate and say things are in-line with expectations. The backdrop is Germany has the chequebook and does not want the invoices to fix the Eurozone as well. I totally get it.\n\nAs a trader I want a Eurozone crisis….\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">3. LOOKING FORWARD…THE KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS:</span></b>\n\n<b>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3634.</b>  Despite all the shenanigans during the week we ended only 40 pips lower than last week. We had a major sell off and two bullish events and we still did not break the trading range of 1.3475 to 1.3650, although we are very close to resistance. Early next week we should know if we are are we heading back towards 1.4000 or aiming lower towards 1.3000. This pair holds the key to the currency moves ahead. I really hope that these trading ranges will break soon; it is becoming a little boring. The S&amp;P needs to hold resistance at 1800. At this level I think that there is a good chance that we turn lower once again.\n\n<b>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.6410.  </b>I have very similar comments regarding cable as I just wrote about the EUR/USD. We saw about a 60 pip reduction in the past week.  At the start of the day on NFP (Friday) I had in mind that a short at around 1.6400 in cable would be a good entry. We will have to wait into the start of next week to re-assess the position. The next stopping point upwards is 1.6500-1.6520 and support lies at 1.6250. I may well issue a FLASH trade tweet about cable short early next week. Recent economic data from the UK has been rather muted and it looks like a downside move may be on the cards once the bullishness of NFP is out of the way.\n\n<b>AUD/USD: Closing Price 0.8958</b>.  I think that we are in a bullish trend at the moment with this pair. I am viewing this move as just a better entry price to head lower once again. Equities will have a lot to say about the future moves I think. Should the S&amp;P rollover at 1800 the AUD/USD should follow. Looking at the charts I think that we may see a run to the psychological 0.9000, maybe resistance as high as 0.9200. Big support is at 0.8876 and then below at 0.8750.\n\n<b>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8293</b>.  Probably in sympathy will the AUD/USD this pair has held up very well in the past week. Like the GBP/USD just before NFP, I had in my mind that 0.8300 would be a great area to look to short. Once again early next week there could be a FLASH trade alert on this pair.  In addition and like the AUD/USD, equities will point us in the correct direction with regards to this pair. At the moment, I think we may test levels a little higher towards 0.8400. Support is really good at 0.8185.\n\n<b>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.1032.</b>  I think that the CAD currency is quite weak at the moment and should we break out through 1.1125; we should see 1.1200 pretty soon. Support is good at 1.0950.\n\n<b>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.8982</b>.  We are bouncing around in a range of 0.9850 to 0.9080. We need this range to break to give us direction. I think that it is pointless looking at this pair to trade at the moment.\n\n<b>USD/JPY: Closing Price 102.31. </b> With all the movement, we only moved down one pip in the week! We have however consolidated at a lower level and this fact should not be missed. Moving forward the range is basically what it has been all week 101.75 to 102.80.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">4. THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</span></b>\n\nAs there are always new readers of this blog each week, I thought that I should mention the subscriber based option of the WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU that has been in existence now since the beginning of 2014; THE PREMIUM SERVICE.\n\nIt is an honest blog containing trade set-ups, profitable and losing trades, my ideas and thoughts and it also has for an instant communication to subscribers a dedicated protected TWITTER feed. All trades (profitable and losing) are monitored and recorded within the secure section of the WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU website.\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU:\n</span></b>(helping you to trade more consistently) <b></b>\n\n</p><p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">PREMIUM SERVICE   </span></b>\n\n</p><p align=\"center\">Are you a part-time forex trader?</p>\n<p align=\"center\">Are you a novice trader still coming to terms with the complexities of trading the forex market full-time?</p>\n<p align=\"center\">Do you feel a little overwhelmed with terminology, when to enter a trade, when to exit, what is being over-leveraged, what is effective risk / money management and what is a trading plan?</p>\n<p align=\"center\">The PREMIUM SERVICE may be an option worthy of serious consideration.</p>\n<p align=\"center\">The PREMIUM SERVICE is not a robot.</p>\n<p align=\"center\">The PREMIUM SERVICE it is not an automated system.</p>\n<p align=\"center\">The PREMIUM SERVICE is not an expensive fleecing series of daily financial updates, pages long that do not give you trading ideas or trade set-ups.</p>\n&nbsp;\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">What is the PREMIUM SERVICE?</span></b></p>\nFirstly, the PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber only addition to The WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU. The WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU is a weekly blog that I started over two years ago. Its aim was to review my thoughts and ideas on the forex market. I then started to add trade set-ups and write about trades that would be on my mind if certain events took place.\n\nI started to publish my future trade set-ups, which were predominantly profitable and as I approached my 100<sup>th</sup> blog, I decided that it was time to move to the next stage…. the PREMIUM SERVICE.\n\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE contains trade-set ups of my various styles of trades that I developed into a successful formula for trading the forex market with more profitable than losing trades.\n\nAs a subscriber to the PREMIUM SERVICE, you will receive all my suggested trades whether they are: - FLASH trades, RADAR trades or FUNDAMENTAL trades via an exclusive protected Twitter feed. I give you my thoughts on entry, exit, trade size and what type of lot to trade.\n\nI do the risk assessment ahead of the trade. You decide whether you want to take the trade and what position size to take.\n\nIf you trade part-time: with the RADAR TRADE suggestions you simply load a limit order with your broker and the trade will enter and exit automatically, if you use the suggestions I provide, or you can chose your own exit strategy.\n\n(Full details and definitions of FLASH, RADAR and FUNDAMENTAL trades are inside the secure members area of the PREMIUM SERVICE)<b> </b>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>What are the current trading success rates with the PREMIUM SERVICE?</b></p>\nFrom my blogs published in December and January the following is an accurate trade by trade set up that was either “Blogged” or “Tweeted” via my twitter account @pipaccumulator (If you want more details please contact me directly via email - my address is at the foot of this document). I have my own history from the past 6 /7 years but it is displayed as below or in excel spread sheets as seen in my blog posts in the WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> and below.\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">December 2013 and January 2014: -</span></b>\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">FLASH TRADES:</span></b></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">TOTAL TRADES: 28\nTOTAL PIPS NET PROFIT: 871</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">MICRO LOT TRADERS: 1 x micro lot traded your risk = 28 x $0.10 = $2.80\nYour reward was 871 x $0.10 = <b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">$87.10</span></b></p>\n<p align=\"center\">MINI LOT TRADERS: 1 x mini lot traded your risk = 28 x $1.00 = $28.00\nYour reward was 871 x $1.00 = <b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">$871.00</span></b></p>\n<p align=\"center\">STANDARD LOT TRADERS: 1 x standard lot traded your risk = 28 x $10.00\nYour reward was 871 x $10.00 = <b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">$8,710.00</span></b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">RADAR TRADES:</span></b></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">TOTAL TRADES: 36\nTOTAL PIPS NET PROFIT: 646</p>\n<p align=\"center\">MICRO LOT TRADERS: 1 x micro lot traded your risk = 36 x $0.10 = $3.60\nYour reward was 646 x $0.10 = <b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">$64.60</span></b></p>\n<p align=\"center\">MINI LOT TRADERS: 1 x mini lot traded your risk = 36 x $1.00 = $36.00\nYour reward was 646 x $1.00 = <b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">$646.00</span></b></p>\n<p align=\"center\">STANDARD LOT TRADERS: 1 x standard lot traded your risk = 36 x $360.00\nYour reward was 646 x $10.00 = <b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">$6,460.00</span></b></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">COMBINED RADAR &amp; FLASH TRADES:</span></b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"> TOTAL TRADES: 64\nTOTAL PIPS NET PROFIT: 1,517</p>\n<p align=\"center\">MICRO LOT TRADERS: 1 x micro lot traded your risk = 64 x $0.10 = $6.40\nYour reward was 1,517 x $0.10 = <b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">$151.70</span></b></p>\n<p align=\"center\">MINI LOT TRADERS: 1 x mini lot traded your risk = 64 x $1.00 = $64.00\nYour reward was 1,517 x $1.00 = <b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">$1,517.00</span></b></p>\n<p align=\"center\">STANDARD LOT TRADERS: 1 x standard lot traded your risk = 64 x $640.00\nYour reward was 1,517 x $10.00 = <b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">$15,710</span></b></p>\nIf you go to <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> and check back over the past 8/9 posts you can see very clearly the growth week by week to give this total.\n\nI am NOT saying that this can be expected every month because I am a cautious trader.\n\nHowever, I do trade currencies to make money.\n\nWhilst I like the idea of longer-term trading, if the market looks false to me I will cut profitable trades and bank money. I am not looking for the glory of three/four week trades to show I have nerves of steel to make +300 pips or so. If I can make 300 pips from three or four 24/48-hour trades instead, who cares? It’s all about banking profits and minimizing risk.\n\nI will have a balance of intra-day, swing and long term trades. It is your choice to pick what you want to take and what to risk. I am a low-risk very conservative trader.\n<p align=\"center\">FUNDAMENTALS MATTER TO ME</p>\n<p align=\"center\">I TRADE TO MAKE MONEY…NOT TO PICK TOPS OR BOTTOMS</p>\n<p align=\"center\">I TRADE LOW RISK</p>\n<p align=\"center\">I DO NOT CHASE MARKETS</p>\n<p align=\"center\">I LIKE THE TRADES TO COME TO ME</p>\n<p align=\"center\">I AM NOT A GREEDY TRADER</p>\n<p align=\"center\">I LIKE TO TRADE MOMENTUMS IN THE DIRECTION OF TRENDS</p>\n<p align=\"center\">I USE FIBONACCI LEVELS TO ENTER &amp; EXIT ON MANY TRADES</p>\n<p align=\"center\">PLUS</p>\n<p align=\"center\">MY TRADING STYLE IS MIXED EVEN WITH THE ABOVE KEY BASICS</p>\n<p align=\"center\">I USE THE PULLBACK STRATEGY TO ENTER AND I LIKE SWING AND LONGER-TERM TRADES (WHEN POSSIBLE)</p>\n&nbsp;\n\nThe members area of the website contains not just the comprehensive trading history / journal of trades but it also contains as much support information as I can gather that is of use to help us all trade profitably. As time moves on, the support pages areas will increase so that it becomes a one-stop point of reference for all styles and types of traders regardless of experience.\n\nI am hoping to have a chat room so that subscribers and myself can chat live about potential live trades. In addition, if the number of participants is economically viable, I will hold webinars on trading issues. Below is a list of questions so far that will either be addressed by webinar or by a future section within a blog post.\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Trade Plans and how to work with them\nHow to find a good broker to partner with</b>\n<b>What trades for what broker\nMicro, Mini or Standard lots\nPlacing Stops</b>\n<b>Strategies on when to enter and exit trades</b>\n<b>Risk Assessment</b>\n<b>When to fade trades</b>\n<b>How to cost average effectively</b>\n<b>How to use Trade Zones effectively - Buy Zones and Sell zones</b>\n<b>Working with Fibonacci levels</b>\n<b>Basic Chart analysis</b></p>\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE will evolve as it moves forward. I have lots of ideas to integrate into this area, but I am also open to ideas from readers / followers and subscribers.\n\nThis is a very important step for me as well; I want the PREMIUM SERVICE to be different to other services currently available.\n\nWhilst upon first look, it may appear that the Premium Service is directed solely at new traders, or those with intermediate skill levels. Please note this is not my intention. Trading can be lonely, and sometimes it is good to feel that you are part of a team. With this in mind, I am thinking that a “Chat Room” style area would be of benefit to all traders to share ideas and trade set-ups. Plus, whether you are a new trader or an experienced trader it is always good to have a library of information available close at hand.\n\nWhat are the costs?\n\nThere will be 40 weekly blogs / issues per year. I will not write in the summer and over Christmas periods. There will be an unlimited amount of Twitter follow-ups to the exclusive subscribers on a Twitter secure feed during the week to review and act upon “FLASH, RADAR and FUNDAMENTAL trades” and issues emanating from previous blogs.\n<p align=\"center\"><b>There are three subscription options: </b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>ANNUAL (40 WEEK) SUBSCRIPTION: $750.00 (this equates to $18.75 per week) </b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>20 WEEKS SUBSCRIPTION: $450.00 (this equates to $22.50 per week)  </b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>10 WEEKS SUBSCRIPTION: $250.00 (this equates to $25.00 per week) </b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>(All Fees are quoted in USD\nand\nPlease note: There are no refunds once a subscription is accepted)</b></p>\nIf you like what you have just read. Please click on the “SIGN -UP” link at the top of the welcome page of the WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU.\n\nThe registration is very straightforward to follow all you require is a PayPal account.\n\nWhen the registration process is complete and, within 24 hours, you will receive an email from me confirming everything and welcoming you onboard so to speak.\n\nShould you have any queries or encounter problems whilst trying to subscribe please contact me on the following email: -\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">premiumservice@weeklyfxdrivethru.com</span></b></p>\nI do hope that if you look through the history of my blog posts on the WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU you will see that I do have a relevance to the forex market and that joining the PREMIUM SERVICE would add value to your trading.\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b>\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">5. MAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:</span></b>\n\nSUNDAY: N/A\n\nMONDAY: N/A.\n\nTUESDAY: USD – Janet Yellen testifies\n\nWEDNESDAY: GBP – BOE Carney speaks &amp; BOE Inflation Report\nWEDNESDAY: EUR – Draghi speaks.\nWEDNESDAY: AUD – Unemployment Rate.\n\nTHURSDAY: USD – Core Retail Sales &amp; Retail Sales and Janet Yellen testifies.\nTHURSDAY: CNY - CPi\n\nFRIDAY: CAD – Manufacturing Sales.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">6. FINAL THOUGHTS:</span></b>\n\nI am expecting consolidation early next week. So, with that in mind, always, always remember that there is a market everyday. You do not need to trade everyday to make your financial goals.\n\nGood luck and trade within your TRADE PLAN guidelines and most importantly use MONEY MANAGEMENT SKILLS to control your risks.\n\nScott Pickering\nThe Pip Accumulator\nSaturday February 8th 2014\n\nEMAIL / FOLLOW ME AT:\ndrivethru@weeklyfxdrivethru.com\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\n<span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">Google+/scottpickering\n</span><span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">StockTwits; thepipaccumulator</span>\n\n&nbsp;\n\n&nbsp;\n\n&nbsp;\n\n&nbsp;\n\n&nbsp;\n\n&nbsp;\n\n&nbsp;\n\n&nbsp;\n\n&nbsp;\n\n&nbsp;\n\n&nbsp;\n\n&nbsp;\n\n&nbsp;\n\n&nbsp;\n\n&nbsp;\n\n&nbsp;\n\n&nbsp;\n\n&nbsp;\n\n&nbsp;\n\n&nbsp;\n\n&nbsp;\n\n&nbsp;\n\n&nbsp;\n\n&nbsp;','DESPITE THE FACT DRAGHI DID NOTHING NEW TO HELP  THE EUROZONE PERIPHERY OR TACKLE DEFLATION THE EURO RALLIED!','','inherit','open','closed','','3198-autosave-v1','','','2014-02-08 11:40:57','2014-02-08 16:40:57','',3198,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/3198-autosave-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(3213,1,'2014-02-08 11:41:21','2014-02-08 16:41:21','','TRADING WITH ATR\'s','','inherit','open','closed','','trading-with-atrs','','','2014-02-08 11:41:21','2014-02-08 16:41:21','',3198,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/TRADING-WITH-ATRs.pdf',0,'attachment','application/pdf',0),(3217,1,'2014-02-08 11:56:10','2014-02-08 16:56:10','<section class=\"pdf-links\">\r\n<div class=\"one-third first\"></div><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/TRADING-WITH-ATRs.pdf\">TRADING WITH ATR\'s</a>\r\n<div class=\"one-third\"></div>\r\n<div class=\"one-third\"></div>\r\n</section>\r\n<div class=\"one-half first\">\r\n\r\nThese resources are in PDF format that will allow for easy printing\r\n\r\n</div>','Trading Essentials','','inherit','open','closed','','2538-revision-v1','','','2014-02-08 11:56:10','2014-02-08 16:56:10','',2538,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/2538-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(3240,1,'2014-02-15 15:11:02','2014-02-15 20:11:02','','HEDGING','','inherit','open','closed','','hedging','','','2014-02-15 15:11:02','2014-02-15 20:11:02','',0,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/HEDGING.pdf',0,'attachment','application/pdf',0),(3241,1,'2014-02-15 15:23:20','2014-02-15 20:23:20','<p style=\"text-align: left;\" align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">1. INTRODUCTION:</span></b></p>\r\nFrom a personal perspective, that was a great week of forex trading, with more than +500 pips profit during the week.\r\n\r\nI am however, a little concerned that some of the currency moves seem to be a little extreme. In particular last Wednesday was extreme. BOE Governor Carney presenting the quarterly BOE Inflation Report, basically kept his forward guidance in place and the GBP rallied like crazy across the board. Wednesday evening the Australian Unemployment data was poor and the AUD weakened. On Wednesday alone the moves in the GBP/AUD and GBP/NZD were terrific. The GBP/AUD nearly +500 pips on the day. I know the GBP/AUD is an exotic commodity cross-rate and moves will be volatile. At the same time the EUR/AUD moved up over +180 pips on the back of AUD Unemployment Data.\r\n\r\nThese moves, plus a few more factors are telling me that the markets are twitchy, and maybe over reacting.  I write this in the full knowledge that the equity markets are grinding higher, and in the full knowledge that the S&amp;P and Nasdaq are at 14 year highs. I will go deeper into my thoughts on this subject later in the blog.\r\n\r\nOne piece of news that really pissed me off was the ECB talking about “Negative Deposit Rates”.\r\n\r\nAt the last ECB Press Conference - ECB President Mario Draghi basically talked about Eurozone economic improvements and how things were starting to come together, cautious optimism was given as guidance. No new initiatives were discussed because of the improvements seen.\r\n\r\nThen within 7 days….it’s confirmed that the ECB had in fact discussed Negative Deposit Rates for member state banks depositing money with the ECB. This is mega news, market moving and important to investors to have knowledge of when making business decisions.\r\n\r\nIt just shows you that it is all a game. I had written many times about Draghi’s body language at the Press Conferences being poor and that he is hiding something. He is very uncomfortable at times. I have said that his testicles must be wired to a switch at the Bundesbank in Frankfurt and Angela Merkel’s office in Berlin, maybe I am not so far off the truth. He is very well managed, I have no doubt of this fact at all.\r\n\r\nAt times, I doubt the economic data validity released from China. The Eurozone is catching China up. We know that most of the Eurozone politicians and bureaucrats will save their own backs and be very economical with the truth at times regarding Eurozone matters.\r\n\r\nOn the basis that “Negative Deposit Rates” have in the past been dismissed as nonsense and were said to be no way near the discussion table and the fact that Draghi had the opportunity to control a discussion about the subject and didn’t, is in my opinion very poor leadership on his part. This is 100% why I think he is controlled, maybe not by gadgets wiring to his testicles, but controlled he is.\r\n\r\nOther news was that Janet Yellen completed her first “grilling” on the hill. I thought she gained more and more confidence as the testimony went on and to be frank, the U.S. politicians wouldn’t know how to ask a question if their lives depended upon it. They still haven’t learnt to ask a concise question. They use up most of their allotted time with waffle and assorted bulls**t. Nevertheless, I thought she came out on top and any uncertainty that the markets had on tapering were well and truly put to bed in my opinion.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">2. THE VIEW FROM MY TRADING DESK:</span></b><b style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\"> </b>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>IT’S STILL ALL ABOUT FEAR AND GREED…EVEN MORE SO NOW:</b><b> </b></p>\r\nI think that the markets are now very overbought and market participants are now getting twitchy. Sentiment is starting to change. Last year, for the equities markets it was all about “Buy the Dip”, a simple trading approach, because the FED was behind the markets with easing (Quantitative Easing), through it’s bond buying programme.\r\n\r\nGREED has been in pole position for quite sometime because the FED was market supportive. The “Buy on the Dip” mentality is starting to be less talked about even though equities grind higher and the S&amp;P and Nasdaq closed last week at 14 year highs. FED monetary policy has changed and the effects of tapering is a whole new ball game. The smart guys are selling into these rallies in my opinion.\r\n\r\nWe saw a 7% pullback over a week ago, and we were led to believe this was a buying opportunity, maybe it was. I just do not buy it. I have said it before and I say it again….the dis-connect / correlations are still off…these are clues not to be ignored. The fact we are at record highs just tells me that it has to stop sooner rather than later. It is how the markets react to a change in sentiment that very important. A GREED based market can switch to a market dictated by FEAR very quickly.\r\n\r\nEveryday I go through the same daily routines with my chart analysis. The following factors are playing heavy in my decision making process. I believe the moves ahead will be very, very big. I do not need to pick a top, I just want a good chunk of the available $$$ in the middle of oncoming trades. I definitely do not want to pick the market bottom either. That can be very costly and a dangerous sport: -<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">\r\n</span></b>\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>Gold is appreciating in value and has moved above the psychological $1,300 barrier. However, in my opinion it doesn’t get bullish in my eyes until it breaks above about $1,380. We have DEFLATION. So the recent run of buying Gold is fear? A flight to safety?</li>\r\n	<li>The Nikkei is selling off one day then bouncing back the next. It has bounced back off a lower trend line support.</li>\r\n	<li>Oil is struggling with $100.00.</li>\r\n	<li>Copper has gone really quiet.</li>\r\n	<li>The JPY pairs are not moving in sync anymore with equities. The best example is yesterday’s close (Friday). The S&amp;P and Nasdaq are at 14 year highs yet the USD/JPY has been hovering around a critical support level of 101.50 for the past 24-36 hours. It should be back at 110.00 given the circumstances.</li>\r\n	<li>The AUD/USD and NZD/USD whilst holding up really well are NOT breaking out. In fact, I am ready to short both of them because in my opinion I have confidence in the fact that the equities markets are going to roll over.</li>\r\n	<li>S&amp;P at 1800 becomes a critical support level. Below 1725 it is game on.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nMy feelings are well known. I am a USD bull and have been for about the past 5/6 months. The market dis-connect has been in play for some time. Inter-market correlations are bo****ksed. My lead currency indicators have been giving clues (AUD/USD &amp; USD/CAD) for months. The commodity currencies lead the way.\r\n\r\nThis is why I am so anxious to get long on the EUR/AUD, EUR/NZD, EUR/CAD, GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD and GBP/CAD. I chickened out on my original set of FUNDAMENTAL trades. I allowed myself to be influenced by other market participants. I am actively looking for the correct levels to enter the six currency trade pairs to the long side.\r\n\r\nWhen the sell-off starts the unwinding effect of these pairs will be incredibly strong.\r\n\r\nThis is when FEAR takes over in the mindset of traders and it will only intensify as the momentum gathers pace.\r\n\r\nIt just takes one negative spark of the right intensity to set this i.e: the sell off in motion. It may come from the emerging markets but my favourite would be either the Eurozone or China.\r\n\r\nThe snap back could happen at anytime.\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">3. LOOKING FORWARD…THE KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS:</span></b>\r\n\r\n<b>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3692.</b>  About a 60 pip move to the upside during the week but even with a lot of bullishness around - the upside has been capped at 1.3715 (a 127.6% Fibonacci extension).  However, I do not think that the bears get back in full control unless we break through support at 1.3610.\r\nThe EUR/USD Daily chart below shows the key trading points.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/EURUSD-DAILY-15.02.14.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-3231\" alt=\"EURUSD DAILY 15.02.14\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/EURUSD-DAILY-15.02.14-1024x522.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"522\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<b>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.6746.  </b>The cable is in breakout territory; the EUR moved upwards about 50 pips and the GBP/USD move higher in the same time period was almost three times greater. The next big resistance lies at 1.6780, which by coincidence with the EUR/USD is also a 127.6% Fibonacci extension. In my blog post outlining my thoughts for 2014, I talked about the “dis-connect” across the various markets. I suggested that I thought that the GBP would start to act more independently of the EUR. Here is the first case example. I can see cable rising beyond 1.6780 towards 1.7000 at a time when I think upwards moves in the EUR will be capped. Watch the EUR/GBP price action, I think 0.8000 cents is on. Support for the GBP/USD is at 1.6650.\r\n\r\n<b>AUD/USD: Closing Price 0.9031</b>.  I think that the AUD/USD is a great short somewhere between 0.9100 and 0.9200. I think that you can start building positions just below 0.9100. Unless it strides higher to short it I am not interested. I am looking forward to reading the RBA monetary policy meeting minutes this week to see what clues if any as to help with my trade set-up. Fundamentally, I see this pair around 0.8000 to 0.8500. For now I think we are range bound 0.9000 to 0.9100.\r\n\r\n<b>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8365</b>.  The most annoying pair in the forex market as far as I am concerned. Like the AUD/USD I think that we are range bound, stuck between 0.8300 and 0.8400.\r\n\r\n<b>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.0977.</b>  I have been all over this pair like a rash in the past week. I firmly believe that with a bit of USD strength coming through the markets this pair will fly through 1.1250 heading towards 1.1520. For now though we are having to suffer spikes and pullbacks. The range is 1.0940 to 1.1025. The 12 hour USD/CAD chart below shows the key levels to watch out for.\r\n\r\n<b> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/USDCAD-12-HOUR-15.02.2014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-3232\" alt=\"USDCAD 12 HOUR 15.02.2014\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/USDCAD-12-HOUR-15.02.2014-1024x522.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"522\" /></a></b>\r\n\r\n<b>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.8923</b>.  I was really excited about trading this pair recently. I was so excited I was relieved to exit my trade on a spike to resistance at 0.9040. Since that day we have fallen. I think a fall back to 0.8850 is a gift to pick and enter long, but I just think that we will continue in this very tight range that we are in until the EUR/USD break out in one direction or the other. The range for now that I am looking at is 0.8900 to 0.8950.\r\n\r\n<b>USD/JPY: Closing Price 101.78. </b> This pair is under real pressure to fall through support at 101.50. It has been at the precipice more than once so if it does not fall through the next time it tests support maybe we are destined to see a quite strong bounce towards 105.00 once again. Who knows? I have found the USD/JPY difficult to follow of late. One thing that I do know however is that equities are at multi year highs and the USD/JPY is falling. There is something wrong with this picture. The critical support at 101.50 must hold otherwise it will be sub 100.00 not too far after. Resistance is good at 102.60.\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b>\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">4. MAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:</span></b>\r\n\r\nSUNDAY: NZD – Retail Sales.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: AUD – Monetary Policy Minutes.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: GBP - CPi.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: GBP – Unemployment Rates.\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – FOMC meeting Minutes.\r\nWEDNESDAY: CNY – Manufacturing PMi\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: EUR – German and French PMI.\r\nTHURSDAY: USD – Janet Yellen testifies.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: GBP – Retail Sales.\r\nFRIDAY: CAD – Core CPi &amp; Core Retail Sales.\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b>\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">5. THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</span></b>\r\n\r\nAs there are always new readers of this blog each week, I thought that I should mention the subscriber based option of the WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU that has been in existence now since the beginning of 2014; THE PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\nIt is an honest blog containing trade set-ups, profitable and losing trades, my ideas and thoughts and it also has for an instant communication to subscribers a dedicated protected TWITTER feed. All trades (profitable and losing) are monitored and recorded within the secure section of the WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU website.\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU:\r\n</span></b>(helping you to trade more consistently) <b></b>\r\n\r\n</p><p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">PREMIUM SERVICE   </span></b>\r\n\r\n</p><p align=\"center\">Are you a part-time forex trader?</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">Are you a novice trader still coming to terms with the complexities of trading the forex market full-time?</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">Do you feel a little overwhelmed with terminology, when to enter a trade, when to exit, what is being over-leveraged, what is effective risk / money management and what is a trading plan?</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">The PREMIUM SERVICE may be an option worthy of serious consideration.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">The PREMIUM SERVICE is not a robot.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">The PREMIUM SERVICE it is not an automated system.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">The PREMIUM SERVICE is not an expensive fleecing series of daily financial updates, pages long that do not give you trading ideas or trade set-ups.</p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">What is the PREMIUM SERVICE?</span></b></p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nFirstly, the PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber only addition to The WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU. The WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU is a weekly blog that I started over two years ago. Its aim was to review my thoughts and ideas on the forex market. I then started to add trade set-ups and write about trades that would be on my mind if certain events took place.\r\n\r\nI started to publish my future trade set-ups, which were predominantly profitable and as I approached my 100<sup>th</sup> blog, I decided that it was time to move to the next stage…. the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE contains trade-set ups of my various styles of trades that I developed into a successful formula for trading the forex market with more profitable than losing trades.\r\n\r\nAs a subscriber to the PREMIUM SERVICE, you will receive all my suggested trades whether they are: - FLASH trades, RADAR trades or FUNDAMENTAL trades via an exclusive protected Twitter feed. I give you my thoughts on entry, exit, trade size and what type of lot to trade.\r\n\r\nI do the risk assessment ahead of the trade. You decide whether you want to take the trade and what position size to take.\r\n\r\nIf you trade part-time: with the RADAR TRADE suggestions you simply load a limit order with your broker and the trade will enter and exit automatically, if you use the suggestions I provide, or you can chose your own exit strategy.\r\n\r\n(Full details and definitions of FLASH, RADAR and FUNDAMENTAL trades are inside the secure members area of the PREMIUM SERVICE)\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b> </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>What are the current trading success rates with the PREMIUM SERVICE?</b></p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nFrom my blogs published in December and January the following is an accurate trade by trade set up that was either “Blogged” or “Tweeted” via my twitter account @pipaccumulator (If you want more details please contact me directly via email - my address is at the foot of this document). I have my own history from the past 6 /7 years but it is displayed as below or in excel spread sheets as seen in my blog posts in the WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> and below.\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">December 2013 and January 2014: -</span></b>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">FLASH TRADES:</span></b></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">TOTAL TRADES: 28\r\nTOTAL PIPS NET PROFIT: 871</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">MICRO LOT TRADERS: 1 x micro lot traded your risk = 28 x $0.10 = $2.80\r\nYour reward was 871 x $0.10 = <b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">$87.10</span></b></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\" align=\"center\">MINI LOT TRADERS: 1 x mini lot traded your risk = 28 x $1.00 = $28.00\r\nYour reward was 871 x $1.00 = <b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">$871.00</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">STANDARD LOT TRADERS: 1 x standard lot traded your risk = 28 x $10.00\r\nYour reward was 871 x $10.00 = <b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">$8,710.00</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">RADAR TRADES:</span></b></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">TOTAL TRADES: 36\r\nTOTAL PIPS NET PROFIT: 646</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">MICRO LOT TRADERS: 1 x micro lot traded your risk = 36 x $0.10 = $3.60\r\nYour reward was 646 x $0.10 = <b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">$64.60</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">MINI LOT TRADERS: 1 x mini lot traded your risk = 36 x $1.00 = $36.00\r\nYour reward was 646 x $1.00 = <b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">$646.00</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">STANDARD LOT TRADERS: 1 x standard lot traded your risk = 36 x $360.00\r\nYour reward was 646 x $10.00 = <b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">$6,460.00</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">COMBINED RADAR &amp; FLASH TRADES:</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"> TOTAL TRADES: 64\r\nTOTAL PIPS NET PROFIT: 1,517</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">MICRO LOT TRADERS: 1 x micro lot traded your risk = 64 x $0.10 = $6.40\r\nYour reward was 1,517 x $0.10 = <b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">$151.70</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">MINI LOT TRADERS: 1 x mini lot traded your risk = 64 x $1.00 = $64.00\r\nYour reward was 1,517 x $1.00 = <b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">$1,517.00</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">STANDARD LOT TRADERS: 1 x standard lot traded your risk = 64 x $640.00\r\nYour reward was 1,517 x $10.00 = <b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">$15,710</span></b></p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nIf you go to <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> and check back over the past 8/9 posts you can see very clearly the growth week by week to give this total.\r\n\r\nI am NOT saying that this can be expected every month because I am a cautious trader.\r\n\r\nHowever, I do trade currencies to make money.\r\n\r\nWhilst I like the idea of longer-term trading, if the market looks false to me I will cut profitable trades and bank money. I am not looking for the glory of three/four week trades to show I have nerves of steel to make +300 pips or so. If I can make 300 pips from three or four 24/48-hour trades instead, who cares? It’s all about banking profits and minimizing risk.\r\n\r\nI will have a balance of intra-day, swing and long term trades. It is your choice to pick what you want to take and what to risk. I am a low-risk very conservative trader.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<p align=\"center\">FUNDAMENTALS MATTER TO ME</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">I TRADE TO MAKE MONEY…NOT TO PICK TOPS OR BOTTOMS</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">I TRADE LOW RISK</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">I DO NOT CHASE MARKETS</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">I LIKE THE TRADES TO COME TO ME</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">I AM NOT A GREEDY TRADER</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">I LIKE TO TRADE MOMENTUMS IN THE DIRECTION OF TRENDS</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">I USE FIBONACCI LEVELS TO ENTER &amp; EXIT ON MANY TRADES</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">PLUS</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">MY TRADING STYLE IS MIXED EVEN WITH THE ABOVE KEY BASICS</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">I USE THE PULLBACK STRATEGY TO ENTER AND I LIKE SWING AND LONGER-TERM TRADES (WHEN POSSIBLE)</p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe members area of the website contains not just the comprehensive trading history / journal of trades but it also contains as much support information as I can gather that is of use to help us all trade profitably. As time moves on, the support pages areas will increase so that it becomes a one-stop point of reference for all styles and types of traders regardless of experience.\r\n\r\nI am hoping to have a chat room so that subscribers and myself can chat live about potential live trades. In addition, if the number of participants is economically viable, I will hold webinars on trading issues. Below is a list of questions so far that will either be addressed by webinar or by a future section within a blog post.\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Trade Plans and how to work with them\r\nHow to find a good broker to partner with</b>\r\n<b>What trades for what broker\r\nMicro, Mini or Standard lots\r\nPlacing Stops</b>\r\n<b>Strategies on when to enter and exit trades</b>\r\n<b>Risk Assessment</b>\r\n<b>When to fade trades</b>\r\n<b>How to cost average effectively</b>\r\n<b>How to use Trade Zones effectively - Buy Zones and Sell zones</b>\r\n<b>Working with Fibonacci levels</b>\r\n<b>Basic Chart analysis</b></p>\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE will evolve as it moves forward. I have lots of ideas to integrate into this area, but I am also open to ideas from readers / followers and subscribers.\r\n\r\nThis is a very important step for me as well; I want the PREMIUM SERVICE to be different to other services currently available.\r\n\r\nWhilst upon first look, it may appear that the Premium Service is directed solely at new traders, or those with intermediate skill levels. Please note this is not my intention. Trading can be lonely, and sometimes it is good to feel that you are part of a team. With this in mind, I am thinking that a “Chat Room” style area would be of benefit to all traders to share ideas and trade set-ups. Plus, whether you are a new trader or an experienced trader it is always good to have a library of information available close at hand.\r\n\r\nWhat are the costs?\r\n\r\nThere will be 40 weekly blogs / issues per year. I will not write in the summer and over Christmas periods. There will be an unlimited amount of Twitter follow-ups to the exclusive subscribers on a Twitter secure feed during the week to review and act upon “FLASH, RADAR and FUNDAMENTAL trades” and issues emanating from previous blogs.\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>There are three subscription options: </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>ANNUAL (40 WEEK) SUBSCRIPTION: $750.00 (this equates to $18.75 per week) </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>20 WEEKS SUBSCRIPTION: $450.00 (this equates to $22.50 per week)  </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>10 WEEKS SUBSCRIPTION: $250.00 (this equates to $25.00 per week) </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>(All Fees are quoted in USD\r\nand\r\nPlease note: There are no refunds once a subscription is accepted)</b></p>\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">6. FINAL THOUGHTS:</span></b>\r\n\r\n<b>THE PREMIUM SERVICE – (Twitter Feed)</b>\r\n\r\nFirstly most of you do not avail of this facility, it is free and quite a lot goes on. To date over 300 tweets have been made. Many of them a multiples surrounding maybe just one piece of data but nevertheless, there is a lot going on.\r\n\r\nI have decided to place a structure around the tweets that are made with immediate effect, they are:\r\n\r\nEveryday before the North American equity markets open. There will be a tweet called “FIRST THOUGHTS”.\r\n\r\nMid morning in the U.S. session there will be a “MARKET UPDATE”\r\n\r\nIn the lunch period / afternoon session there will be a “FINAL THOUGHTS” tweet.\r\n\r\n24 x 7 there will be “TRADE UPDATES” and “TRADE SET-UPS” relating to FLASH, RADAR and FUNDAMENTAL trades.\r\n\r\nFinally, “NEWS FLASH” tweets, when applicable.\r\n\r\nI hope that this format will be well received.\r\n\r\nFor those of you that still happy with just the weekly trade set-ups, there is absolutely no problem from my side. I know time differences play a part, but the “Twitter Feed” can offer an additional edge…..think about it.\r\n\r\nBack to the markets, I expected consolidation last week. I suppose to some extent there was but there was a lot of volatility. This week I am expecting some movement as I believe that we are once again very close to the crossroads were sentiment changes.\r\n\r\nAs you know, the markets move on FEAR and GREED and I think FEAR is entering. If I am correct, that means volatility; be prepared.\r\n\r\nWith that in mind, always remember that there is a market everyday. You do not need to trade everyday to make your financial goals.\r\n\r\nGood luck and trade within your TRADE PLAN guidelines and most importantly use sound MONEY MANAGEMENT SKILLS to control your risk.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nSaturday February 15th 2014\r\n\r\nEMAIL / FOLLOW ME AT:\r\ndrivethru@weeklyfxdrivethru.com\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n<span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">Google+/scottpickering\r\n</span><span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">StockTwits; thepipaccumulator</span>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b> </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b> </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b> </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b> </b></p>\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b>\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','IT’S STILL ALL ABOUT FEAR AND GREED…EVEN MORE SO NOW','','publish','open','closed','','still-fear-greedeven-now','','','2014-02-15 15:33:35','2014-02-15 20:33:35','',0,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?p=3241',0,'post','',0),(3242,1,'2014-02-15 15:18:08','2014-02-15 20:18:08','<p style=\"text-align: left;\" align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">1. INTRODUCTION:</span></b></p>\r\nFrom a personal perspective, that was a great week of forex trading, with more than +500 pips profit during the week.\r\n\r\nI am however, a little concerned that some of the currency moves seem to be a little extreme. In particular last Wednesday was extreme. BOE Governor Carney presenting the quarterly BOE Inflation Report, basically kept his forward guidance in place and the GBP rallied like crazy across the board. Wednesday evening the Australian Unemployment data was poor and the AUD weakened. On Wednesday alone the moves in the GBP/AUD and GBP/NZD were terrific. The GBP/AUD nearly +500 pips on the day. I know the GBP/AUD is an exotic commodity cross-rate and moves will be volatile. At the same time the EUR/AUD moved up over +180 pips on the back of AUD Unemployment Data.\r\n\r\nThese moves, plus a few more factors are telling me that the markets are twitchy, and maybe over reacting.  I write this in the full knowledge that the equity markets are grinding higher, and in the full knowledge that the S&amp;P and Nasdaq are at 14 year highs. I will go deeper into my thoughts on this subject later in the blog.\r\n\r\nOne piece of news that really pissed me off was the ECB talking about “Negative Deposit Rates”.\r\n\r\nAt the last ECB Press Conference - ECB President Mario Draghi basically talked about Eurozone economic improvements and how things were starting to come together, cautious optimism was given as guidance. No new initiatives were discussed because of the improvements seen.\r\n\r\nThen within 7 days….it’s confirmed that the ECB had in fact discussed Negative Deposit Rates for member state banks depositing money with the ECB. This is mega news, market moving and important to investors to have knowledge of when making business decisions.\r\n\r\nIt just shows you that it is all a game. I had written many times about Draghi’s body language at the Press Conferences being poor and that he is hiding something. He is very uncomfortable at times. I have said that his testicles must be wired to a switch at the Bundesbank in Frankfurt and Angela Merkel’s office in Berlin, maybe I am not so far off the truth. He is very well managed, I have no doubt of this fact at all.\r\n\r\nAt times, I doubt the economic data validity released from China. The Eurozone is catching China up. We know that most of the Eurozone politicians and bureaucrats will save their own backs and be very economical with the truth at times regarding Eurozone matters.\r\n\r\nOn the basis that “Negative Deposit Rates” have in the past been dismissed as nonsense and were said to be no way near the discussion table and the fact that Draghi had the opportunity to control a discussion about the subject and didn’t, is in my opinion very poor leadership on his part. This is 100% why I think he is controlled, maybe not by gadgets wiring to his testicles, but controlled he is.\r\n\r\nOther news was that Janet Yellen completed her first “grilling” on the hill. I thought she gained more and more confidence as the testimony went on and to be frank, the U.S. politicians wouldn’t know how to ask a question if their lives depended upon it. They still haven’t learnt to ask a concise question. They use up most of their allotted time with waffle and assorted bulls**t. Nevertheless, I thought she came out on top and any uncertainty that the markets had on tapering were well and truly put to bed in my opinion.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">2. THE VIEW FROM MY TRADING DESK:</span></b><b style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\"> </b>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>IT’S STILL ALL ABOUT FEAR AND GREED…EVEN MORE SO NOW:</b><b> </b></p>\r\nI think that the markets are now very overbought and market participants are now getting twitchy. Sentiment for is starting to change. Last year, for the equities markets it was all about “Buy the Dip”, a simple trading approach, because the FED was behind the markets with easing (Quantatative Easing), through it’s bond buying programme.\r\n\r\nGREED has been in pole position for quite sometime because the FED was market supportive. The “Buy on the Dip” mentality is starting to be less talked about even though equities grind higher and the S&amp;P and Nasdaq closed last week at 14 year highs. FED monetary policy has changed and the effects of tapering is a whole new ball game. The smart guys are selling into these rallies in my opinion.\r\n\r\nWe saw a 7% pullback over a week ago, and we were led to believe this was a buying opportunity, maybe it was. I just do not buy it. I have said it before and I say it again….the dis-connect / correlations are still off…these are clues not to be ignored. The fact we are at record highs just tells me that it has to stop sooner rather than later. It is how the markets react to a change in sentiment that very important. A GREED based market can switch to a market dictated by FEAR very quickly.\r\n\r\nEveryday I go through the same daily routines with my chart analysis. The following factors are playing heavy in my decision making process. I believe the moves ahead will be very, very big. I do not need to pick a top, I just want a good chunk of the available $$$ in the middle of oncoming trades. I definitely do not want to pick the market bottom either. That can be very costly and a dangerous sport: -<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">\r\n</span></b>\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>Gold is appreciating in value and has moved above the psychological $1,300 barrier. However, in my opinion it doesn’t get bullish in my eyes until it breaks above about $1,380. We have DEFLATION. So the recent run of buying Gold is fear? A flight to safety?</li>\r\n	<li>The Nikkei is selling off one day then bouncing back the next. It has bounced back off a lower trend line support.</li>\r\n	<li>Oil is struggling with $100.00.</li>\r\n	<li>Copper has gone really quiet.</li>\r\n	<li>The JPY pairs are not moving in sync anymore with equities. The best example is yesterday’s close (Friday). The S&amp;P and Nasdaq are at 14 year highs yet the USD/JPY has been hovering around a critical support level of 101.50 for the past 24-36 hours. It should be back at 110.00 given the circumstances.</li>\r\n	<li>The AUD/USD and NZD/USD whilst holding up really well are NOT breaking out. In fact, I am ready to short both of them because in my opinion I have confidence in the fact that the equities markets are going to roll over.</li>\r\n	<li>S&amp;P at 1800 becomes a critical support level. Below 1725 it is game on.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nMy feelings are well known. I am a USD bull and have been for about the past 5/6 months. The market dis-connect has been in play for some time. Inter-market correlations are bo****ksed. My lead currency indicators have been giving clues (AUD/USD &amp; USD/CAD) for months. The commodity currencies lead the way.\r\n\r\nThis is why I am so anxious to get long on the EUR/AUD, EUR/NZD, EUR/CAD, GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD and GBP/CAD. I chickened out on my original set of FUNDAMENTAL trades. I allowed myself to be influenced by other market participants. I am actively looking for the correct levels to enter the six currency trade pairs to the long side.\r\n\r\nWhen the sell-off starts the unwinding effect of these pairs will be incredibly strong.\r\n\r\nThis is when FEAR takes over in the mindset of traders and it will only intensify as the momentum gathers pace.\r\n\r\nIt just takes one negative spark of the right intensity to set this i.e: the sell off in motion. It may come from the emerging markets but my favourite would be either the Eurozone or China.\r\n\r\nThe snap back could happen at anytime.\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">3. LOOKING FORWARD…THE KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS:</span></b>\r\n\r\n<b>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3692.</b>  About a 60 pip move to the upside during the week but even with a lot of bullishness around - the upside has been capped at 1.3715 (a 127.6% Fibonacci extension).  However, I do not think that the bears get back in full control unless we break through support at 1.3610.\r\nThe EUR/USD Daily chart below shows the key trading points.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/EURUSD-DAILY-15.02.14.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-3231\" alt=\"EURUSD DAILY 15.02.14\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/EURUSD-DAILY-15.02.14-1024x522.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"522\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<b>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.6746.  </b>The cable is in breakout territory; the EUR moved upwards about 50 pips and the GBP/USD move higher in the same time period was almost three times greater. The next big resistance lies at 1.6780, which by coincidence with the EUR/USD is also a 127.6% Fibonacci extension. In my blog post outlining my thoughts for 2014, I talked about the “dis-connect” across the various markets. I suggested that I thought that the GBP would start to act more independently of the EUR. Here is the first case example. I can see cable rising beyond 1.6780 towards 1.7000 at a time when I think upwards moves in the EUR will be capped. Watch the EUR/GBP price action, I think 0.8000 cents is on. Support for the GBP/USD is at 1.6650.\r\n\r\n<b>AUD/USD: Closing Price 0.9031</b>.  I think that the AUD/USD is a great short somewhere between 0.9100 and 0.9200. I think that you can start building positions just below 0.9100. Unless it strides higher to short it I am not interested. I am looking forward to reading the RBA monetary policy meeting minutes this week to see what clues if any as to help with my trade set-up. Fundamentally, I see this pair around 0.8000 to 0.8500. For now I think we are range bound 0.9000 to 0.9100.\r\n\r\n<b>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8365</b>.  The most annoying pair in the forex market as far as I am concerned. Like the AUD/USD I think that we are range bound, stuck between 0.8300 and 0.8400.\r\n\r\n<b>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.0977.</b>  I have been all over this pair like a rash in the past week. I firmly believe that with a bit of USD strength coming through the markets this pair will fly through 1.1250 heading towards 1.1520. For now though we are having to suffer spikes and pullbacks. The range is 1.0940 to 1.1025. The 12 hour USD/CAD chart below shows the key levels to watch out for.\r\n\r\n<b> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/USDCAD-12-HOUR-15.02.2014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-3232\" alt=\"USDCAD 12 HOUR 15.02.2014\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/USDCAD-12-HOUR-15.02.2014-1024x522.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"522\" /></a></b>\r\n\r\n<b>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.8923</b>.  I was really excited about trading this pair recently. I was so excited I was relieved to exit my trade on a spike to resistance at 0.9040. Since that day we have fallen. I think a fall back to 0.8850 is a gift to pick and enter long, but I just think that we will continue in this very tight range that we are in until the EUR/USD break out in one direction or the other. The range for now that I am looking at is 0.8900 to 0.8950.\r\n\r\n<b>USD/JPY: Closing Price 101.78. </b> This pair is under real pressure to fall through support at 101.50. It has been at the precipice more than once so if it does not fall through the next time it tests support maybe we are destined to see a quite strong bounce towards 105.00 once again. Who knows? I have found the USD/JPY difficult to follow of late. One thing that I do know however is that equities are at multi year highs and the USD/JPY is falling. There is something wrong with this picture. The critical support at 101.50 must hold otherwise it will be sub 100.00 not too far after. Resistance is good at 102.60.\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b>\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">4. MAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:</span></b>\r\n\r\nSUNDAY: NZD – Retail Sales.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: AUD – Monetary Policy Minutes.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: GBP - CPi.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: GBP – Unemployment Rates.\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – FOMC meeting Minutes.\r\nWEDNESDAY: CNY – Manufacturing PMi\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: EUR – German and French PMI.\r\nTHURSDAY: USD – Janet Yellen testifies.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: GBP – Retail Sales.\r\nFRIDAY: CAD – Core CPi &amp; Core Retail Sales.\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b>\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">5. THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</span></b>\r\n\r\nAs there are always new readers of this blog each week, I thought that I should mention the subscriber based option of the WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU that has been in existence now since the beginning of 2014; THE PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\nIt is an honest blog containing trade set-ups, profitable and losing trades, my ideas and thoughts and it also has for an instant communication to subscribers a dedicated protected TWITTER feed. All trades (profitable and losing) are monitored and recorded within the secure section of the WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU website.\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU:\r\n</span></b>(helping you to trade more consistently) <b></b>\r\n\r\n</p><p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">PREMIUM SERVICE   </span></b>\r\n\r\n</p><p align=\"center\">Are you a part-time forex trader?</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">Are you a novice trader still coming to terms with the complexities of trading the forex market full-time?</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">Do you feel a little overwhelmed with terminology, when to enter a trade, when to exit, what is being over-leveraged, what is effective risk / money management and what is a trading plan?</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">The PREMIUM SERVICE may be an option worthy of serious consideration.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">The PREMIUM SERVICE is not a robot.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">The PREMIUM SERVICE it is not an automated system.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">The PREMIUM SERVICE is not an expensive fleecing series of daily financial updates, pages long that do not give you trading ideas or trade set-ups.</p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">What is the PREMIUM SERVICE?</span></b></p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nFirstly, the PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber only addition to The WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU. The WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU is a weekly blog that I started over two years ago. Its aim was to review my thoughts and ideas on the forex market. I then started to add trade set-ups and write about trades that would be on my mind if certain events took place.\r\n\r\nI started to publish my future trade set-ups, which were predominantly profitable and as I approached my 100<sup>th</sup> blog, I decided that it was time to move to the next stage…. the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE contains trade-set ups of my various styles of trades that I developed into a successful formula for trading the forex market with more profitable than losing trades.\r\n\r\nAs a subscriber to the PREMIUM SERVICE, you will receive all my suggested trades whether they are: - FLASH trades, RADAR trades or FUNDAMENTAL trades via an exclusive protected Twitter feed. I give you my thoughts on entry, exit, trade size and what type of lot to trade.\r\n\r\nI do the risk assessment ahead of the trade. You decide whether you want to take the trade and what position size to take.\r\n\r\nIf you trade part-time: with the RADAR TRADE suggestions you simply load a limit order with your broker and the trade will enter and exit automatically, if you use the suggestions I provide, or you can chose your own exit strategy.\r\n\r\n(Full details and definitions of FLASH, RADAR and FUNDAMENTAL trades are inside the secure members area of the PREMIUM SERVICE)\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b> </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>What are the current trading success rates with the PREMIUM SERVICE?</b></p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nFrom my blogs published in December and January the following is an accurate trade by trade set up that was either “Blogged” or “Tweeted” via my twitter account @pipaccumulator (If you want more details please contact me directly via email - my address is at the foot of this document). I have my own history from the past 6 /7 years but it is displayed as below or in excel spread sheets as seen in my blog posts in the WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> and below.\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">December 2013 and January 2014: -</span></b>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">FLASH TRADES:</span></b>\r\n\r\nTOTAL TRADES: 28\r\nTOTAL PIPS NET PROFIT: 871\r\n\r\nMICRO LOT TRADERS: 1 x micro lot traded your risk = 28 x $0.10 = $2.80\r\nYour reward was 871 x $0.10 = <b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">$87.10</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">MINI LOT TRADERS: 1 x mini lot traded your risk = 28 x $1.00 = $28.00\r\nYour reward was 871 x $1.00 = <b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">$871.00</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">STANDARD LOT TRADERS: 1 x standard lot traded your risk = 28 x $10.00\r\nYour reward was 871 x $10.00 = <b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">$8,710.00</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">RADAR TRADES:\r\n\r\n</span></b>TOTAL TRADES: 36\r\nTOTAL PIPS NET PROFIT: 646</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">MICRO LOT TRADERS: 1 x micro lot traded your risk = 36 x $0.10 = $3.60\r\nYour reward was 646 x $0.10 = <b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">$64.60</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">MINI LOT TRADERS: 1 x mini lot traded your risk = 36 x $1.00 = $36.00\r\nYour reward was 646 x $1.00 = <b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">$646.00</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">STANDARD LOT TRADERS: 1 x standard lot traded your risk = 36 x $360.00\r\nYour reward was 646 x $10.00 = <b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">$6,460.00</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">COMBINED RADAR &amp; FLASH TRADES:</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"> TOTAL TRADES: 64\r\nTOTAL PIPS NET PROFIT: 1,517</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">MICRO LOT TRADERS: 1 x micro lot traded your risk = 64 x $0.10 = $6.40\r\nYour reward was 1,517 x $0.10 = <b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">$151.70</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">MINI LOT TRADERS: 1 x mini lot traded your risk = 64 x $1.00 = $64.00\r\nYour reward was 1,517 x $1.00 = <b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">$1,517.00</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">STANDARD LOT TRADERS: 1 x standard lot traded your risk = 64 x $640.00\r\nYour reward was 1,517 x $10.00 = <b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">$15,710</span></b></p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nIf you go to <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> and check back over the past 8/9 posts you can see very clearly the growth week by week to give this total.\r\n\r\nI am NOT saying that this can be expected every month because I am a cautious trader.\r\n\r\nHowever, I do trade currencies to make money.\r\n\r\nWhilst I like the idea of longer-term trading, if the market looks false to me I will cut profitable trades and bank money. I am not looking for the glory of three/four week trades to show I have nerves of steel to make +300 pips or so. If I can make 300 pips from three or four 24/48-hour trades instead, who cares? It’s all about banking profits and minimizing risk.\r\n\r\nI will have a balance of intra-day, swing and long term trades. It is your choice to pick what you want to take and what to risk. I am a low-risk very conservative trader.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<p align=\"center\">FUNDAMENTALS MATTER TO ME</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">I TRADE TO MAKE MONEY…NOT TO PICK TOPS OR BOTTOMS</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">I TRADE LOW RISK</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">I DO NOT CHASE MARKETS</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">I LIKE THE TRADES TO COME TO ME</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">I AM NOT A GREEDY TRADER</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">I LIKE TO TRADE MOMENTUMS IN THE DIRECTION OF TRENDS</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">I USE FIBONACCI LEVELS TO ENTER &amp; EXIT ON MANY TRADES</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">PLUS</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">MY TRADING STYLE IS MIXED EVEN WITH THE ABOVE KEY BASICS</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">I USE THE PULLBACK STRATEGY TO ENTER AND I LIKE SWING AND LONGER-TERM TRADES (WHEN POSSIBLE)</p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe members area of the website contains not just the comprehensive trading history / journal of trades but it also contains as much support information as I can gather that is of use to help us all trade profitably. As time moves on, the support pages areas will increase so that it becomes a one-stop point of reference for all styles and types of traders regardless of experience.\r\n\r\nI am hoping to have a chat room so that subscribers and myself can chat live about potential live trades. In addition, if the number of participants is economically viable, I will hold webinars on trading issues. Below is a list of questions so far that will either be addressed by webinar or by a future section within a blog post.\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Trade Plans and how to work with them\r\nHow to find a good broker to partner with</b>\r\n<b>What trades for what broker\r\nMicro, Mini or Standard lots\r\nPlacing Stops</b>\r\n<b>Strategies on when to enter and exit trades</b>\r\n<b>Risk Assessment</b>\r\n<b>When to fade trades</b>\r\n<b>How to cost average effectively</b>\r\n<b>How to use Trade Zones effectively - Buy Zones and Sell zones</b>\r\n<b>Working with Fibonacci levels</b>\r\n<b>Basic Chart analysis</b></p>\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE will evolve as it moves forward. I have lots of ideas to integrate into this area, but I am also open to ideas from readers / followers and subscribers.\r\n\r\nThis is a very important step for me as well; I want the PREMIUM SERVICE to be different to other services currently available.\r\n\r\nWhilst upon first look, it may appear that the Premium Service is directed solely at new traders, or those with intermediate skill levels. Please note this is not my intention. Trading can be lonely, and sometimes it is good to feel that you are part of a team. With this in mind, I am thinking that a “Chat Room” style area would be of benefit to all traders to share ideas and trade set-ups. Plus, whether you are a new trader or an experienced trader it is always good to have a library of information available close at hand.\r\n\r\nWhat are the costs?\r\n\r\nThere will be 40 weekly blogs / issues per year. I will not write in the summer and over Christmas periods. There will be an unlimited amount of Twitter follow-ups to the exclusive subscribers on a Twitter secure feed during the week to review and act upon “FLASH, RADAR and FUNDAMENTAL trades” and issues emanating from previous blogs.\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>There are three subscription options: </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>ANNUAL (40 WEEK) SUBSCRIPTION: $750.00 (this equates to $18.75 per week) </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>20 WEEKS SUBSCRIPTION: $450.00 (this equates to $22.50 per week)  </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>10 WEEKS SUBSCRIPTION: $250.00 (this equates to $25.00 per week) </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>(All Fees are quoted in USD\r\nand\r\nPlease note: There are no refunds once a subscription is accepted)</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"></p>\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">6. FINAL THOUGHTS:</span></b>\r\n\r\n<b>THE PREMIUM SERVICE – (Twitter Feed)</b>\r\n\r\nFirstly most of you do not avail of this facility, it is free and quite a lot goes on. To date over 300 tweets have been made. Many of them a multiples surrounding maybe just one piece of data but nevertheless, there is a lot going on.\r\n\r\nI have decided to place a structure around the tweets that are made with immediate effect, they are:\r\n\r\nEveryday before the North American equity markets open. There will be a tweet called “FIRST THOUGHTS”.\r\n\r\nMid morning in the U.S. session there will be a “MARKET UPDATE”\r\n\r\nIn the lunch period / afternoon session there will be a “FINAL THOUGHTS” tweet.\r\n\r\n24 x 7 there will be “TRADE UPDATES” and “TRADE SET-UPS” relating to FLASH, RADAR and FUNDAMENTAL trades.\r\n\r\nFinally, “NEWS FLASH” tweets, when applicable.\r\n\r\nI hope that this format will be well received.\r\n\r\nFor those of you that still happy with just the weekly trade set-ups, there is absolutely no problem from my side. I know time differences play a part, but the “Twitter Feed” can offer an additional edge…..think about it.\r\n\r\nBack to the markets, I expected consolidation last week. I suppose to some extent there was but there was a lot of volatility. This week I am expecting some movement as I believe that we are once again very close to the crossroads were sentiment changes.\r\n\r\nAs you know, the markets move on FEAR and GREED and I think FEAR is entering. If I am correct, that means volatility; be prepared.\r\n\r\nWith that in mind, always remember that there is a market everyday. You do not need to trade everyday to make your financial goals.\r\n\r\nGood luck and trade within your TRADE PLAN guidelines and most importantly use sound MONEY MANAGEMENT SKILLS to control your risk.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nSaturday February 15th 2014\r\n\r\nEMAIL / FOLLOW ME AT:\r\ndrivethru@weeklyfxdrivethru.com\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n<span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">Google+/scottpickering\r\n</span><span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">StockTwits; thepipaccumulator</span>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b> </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b> </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b> </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b> </b></p>\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b>\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','IT’S STILL ALL ABOUT FEAR AND GREED…EVEN MORE SO NOW','','inherit','open','closed','','3241-revision-v1','','','2014-02-15 15:18:08','2014-02-15 20:18:08','',3241,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/3241-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(3243,1,'2014-02-15 15:20:37','2014-02-15 20:20:37','<p style=\"text-align: left;\" align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">1. INTRODUCTION:</span></b></p>\r\nFrom a personal perspective, that was a great week of forex trading, with more than +500 pips profit during the week.\r\n\r\nI am however, a little concerned that some of the currency moves seem to be a little extreme. In particular last Wednesday was extreme. BOE Governor Carney presenting the quarterly BOE Inflation Report, basically kept his forward guidance in place and the GBP rallied like crazy across the board. Wednesday evening the Australian Unemployment data was poor and the AUD weakened. On Wednesday alone the moves in the GBP/AUD and GBP/NZD were terrific. The GBP/AUD nearly +500 pips on the day. I know the GBP/AUD is an exotic commodity cross-rate and moves will be volatile. At the same time the EUR/AUD moved up over +180 pips on the back of AUD Unemployment Data.\r\n\r\nThese moves, plus a few more factors are telling me that the markets are twitchy, and maybe over reacting.  I write this in the full knowledge that the equity markets are grinding higher, and in the full knowledge that the S&amp;P and Nasdaq are at 14 year highs. I will go deeper into my thoughts on this subject later in the blog.\r\n\r\nOne piece of news that really pissed me off was the ECB talking about “Negative Deposit Rates”.\r\n\r\nAt the last ECB Press Conference - ECB President Mario Draghi basically talked about Eurozone economic improvements and how things were starting to come together, cautious optimism was given as guidance. No new initiatives were discussed because of the improvements seen.\r\n\r\nThen within 7 days….it’s confirmed that the ECB had in fact discussed Negative Deposit Rates for member state banks depositing money with the ECB. This is mega news, market moving and important to investors to have knowledge of when making business decisions.\r\n\r\nIt just shows you that it is all a game. I had written many times about Draghi’s body language at the Press Conferences being poor and that he is hiding something. He is very uncomfortable at times. I have said that his testicles must be wired to a switch at the Bundesbank in Frankfurt and Angela Merkel’s office in Berlin, maybe I am not so far off the truth. He is very well managed, I have no doubt of this fact at all.\r\n\r\nAt times, I doubt the economic data validity released from China. The Eurozone is catching China up. We know that most of the Eurozone politicians and bureaucrats will save their own backs and be very economical with the truth at times regarding Eurozone matters.\r\n\r\nOn the basis that “Negative Deposit Rates” have in the past been dismissed as nonsense and were said to be no way near the discussion table and the fact that Draghi had the opportunity to control a discussion about the subject and didn’t, is in my opinion very poor leadership on his part. This is 100% why I think he is controlled, maybe not by gadgets wiring to his testicles, but controlled he is.\r\n\r\nOther news was that Janet Yellen completed her first “grilling” on the hill. I thought she gained more and more confidence as the testimony went on and to be frank, the U.S. politicians wouldn’t know how to ask a question if their lives depended upon it. They still haven’t learnt to ask a concise question. They use up most of their allotted time with waffle and assorted bulls**t. Nevertheless, I thought she came out on top and any uncertainty that the markets had on tapering were well and truly put to bed in my opinion.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">2. THE VIEW FROM MY TRADING DESK:</span></b><b style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\"> </b>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>IT’S STILL ALL ABOUT FEAR AND GREED…EVEN MORE SO NOW:</b><b> </b></p>\r\nI think that the markets are now very overbought and market participants are now getting twitchy. Sentiment is starting to change. Last year, for the equities markets it was all about “Buy the Dip”, a simple trading approach, because the FED was behind the markets with easing (Quantitative Easing), through it’s bond buying programme.\r\n\r\nGREED has been in pole position for quite sometime because the FED was market supportive. The “Buy on the Dip” mentality is starting to be less talked about even though equities grind higher and the S&amp;P and Nasdaq closed last week at 14 year highs. FED monetary policy has changed and the effects of tapering is a whole new ball game. The smart guys are selling into these rallies in my opinion.\r\n\r\nWe saw a 7% pullback over a week ago, and we were led to believe this was a buying opportunity, maybe it was. I just do not buy it. I have said it before and I say it again….the dis-connect / correlations are still off…these are clues not to be ignored. The fact we are at record highs just tells me that it has to stop sooner rather than later. It is how the markets react to a change in sentiment that very important. A GREED based market can switch to a market dictated by FEAR very quickly.\r\n\r\nEveryday I go through the same daily routines with my chart analysis. The following factors are playing heavy in my decision making process. I believe the moves ahead will be very, very big. I do not need to pick a top, I just want a good chunk of the available $$$ in the middle of oncoming trades. I definitely do not want to pick the market bottom either. That can be very costly and a dangerous sport: -<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">\r\n</span></b>\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>Gold is appreciating in value and has moved above the psychological $1,300 barrier. However, in my opinion it doesn’t get bullish in my eyes until it breaks above about $1,380. We have DEFLATION. So the recent run of buying Gold is fear? A flight to safety?</li>\r\n	<li>The Nikkei is selling off one day then bouncing back the next. It has bounced back off a lower trend line support.</li>\r\n	<li>Oil is struggling with $100.00.</li>\r\n	<li>Copper has gone really quiet.</li>\r\n	<li>The JPY pairs are not moving in sync anymore with equities. The best example is yesterday’s close (Friday). The S&amp;P and Nasdaq are at 14 year highs yet the USD/JPY has been hovering around a critical support level of 101.50 for the past 24-36 hours. It should be back at 110.00 given the circumstances.</li>\r\n	<li>The AUD/USD and NZD/USD whilst holding up really well are NOT breaking out. In fact, I am ready to short both of them because in my opinion I have confidence in the fact that the equities markets are going to roll over.</li>\r\n	<li>S&amp;P at 1800 becomes a critical support level. Below 1725 it is game on.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nMy feelings are well known. I am a USD bull and have been for about the past 5/6 months. The market dis-connect has been in play for some time. Inter-market correlations are bo****ksed. My lead currency indicators have been giving clues (AUD/USD &amp; USD/CAD) for months. The commodity currencies lead the way.\r\n\r\nThis is why I am so anxious to get long on the EUR/AUD, EUR/NZD, EUR/CAD, GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD and GBP/CAD. I chickened out on my original set of FUNDAMENTAL trades. I allowed myself to be influenced by other market participants. I am actively looking for the correct levels to enter the six currency trade pairs to the long side.\r\n\r\nWhen the sell-off starts the unwinding effect of these pairs will be incredibly strong.\r\n\r\nThis is when FEAR takes over in the mindset of traders and it will only intensify as the momentum gathers pace.\r\n\r\nIt just takes one negative spark of the right intensity to set this i.e: the sell off in motion. It may come from the emerging markets but my favourite would be either the Eurozone or China.\r\n\r\nThe snap back could happen at anytime.\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">3. LOOKING FORWARD…THE KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS:</span></b>\r\n\r\n<b>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3692.</b>  About a 60 pip move to the upside during the week but even with a lot of bullishness around - the upside has been capped at 1.3715 (a 127.6% Fibonacci extension).  However, I do not think that the bears get back in full control unless we break through support at 1.3610.\r\nThe EUR/USD Daily chart below shows the key trading points.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/EURUSD-DAILY-15.02.14.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-3231\" alt=\"EURUSD DAILY 15.02.14\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/EURUSD-DAILY-15.02.14-1024x522.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"522\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<b>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.6746.  </b>The cable is in breakout territory; the EUR moved upwards about 50 pips and the GBP/USD move higher in the same time period was almost three times greater. The next big resistance lies at 1.6780, which by coincidence with the EUR/USD is also a 127.6% Fibonacci extension. In my blog post outlining my thoughts for 2014, I talked about the “dis-connect” across the various markets. I suggested that I thought that the GBP would start to act more independently of the EUR. Here is the first case example. I can see cable rising beyond 1.6780 towards 1.7000 at a time when I think upwards moves in the EUR will be capped. Watch the EUR/GBP price action, I think 0.8000 cents is on. Support for the GBP/USD is at 1.6650.\r\n\r\n<b>AUD/USD: Closing Price 0.9031</b>.  I think that the AUD/USD is a great short somewhere between 0.9100 and 0.9200. I think that you can start building positions just below 0.9100. Unless it strides higher to short it I am not interested. I am looking forward to reading the RBA monetary policy meeting minutes this week to see what clues if any as to help with my trade set-up. Fundamentally, I see this pair around 0.8000 to 0.8500. For now I think we are range bound 0.9000 to 0.9100.\r\n\r\n<b>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8365</b>.  The most annoying pair in the forex market as far as I am concerned. Like the AUD/USD I think that we are range bound, stuck between 0.8300 and 0.8400.\r\n\r\n<b>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.0977.</b>  I have been all over this pair like a rash in the past week. I firmly believe that with a bit of USD strength coming through the markets this pair will fly through 1.1250 heading towards 1.1520. For now though we are having to suffer spikes and pullbacks. The range is 1.0940 to 1.1025. The 12 hour USD/CAD chart below shows the key levels to watch out for.\r\n\r\n<b> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/USDCAD-12-HOUR-15.02.2014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-3232\" alt=\"USDCAD 12 HOUR 15.02.2014\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/USDCAD-12-HOUR-15.02.2014-1024x522.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"522\" /></a></b>\r\n\r\n<b>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.8923</b>.  I was really excited about trading this pair recently. I was so excited I was relieved to exit my trade on a spike to resistance at 0.9040. Since that day we have fallen. I think a fall back to 0.8850 is a gift to pick and enter long, but I just think that we will continue in this very tight range that we are in until the EUR/USD break out in one direction or the other. The range for now that I am looking at is 0.8900 to 0.8950.\r\n\r\n<b>USD/JPY: Closing Price 101.78. </b> This pair is under real pressure to fall through support at 101.50. It has been at the precipice more than once so if it does not fall through the next time it tests support maybe we are destined to see a quite strong bounce towards 105.00 once again. Who knows? I have found the USD/JPY difficult to follow of late. One thing that I do know however is that equities are at multi year highs and the USD/JPY is falling. There is something wrong with this picture. The critical support at 101.50 must hold otherwise it will be sub 100.00 not too far after. Resistance is good at 102.60.\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b>\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">4. MAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:</span></b>\r\n\r\nSUNDAY: NZD – Retail Sales.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: AUD – Monetary Policy Minutes.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: GBP - CPi.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: GBP – Unemployment Rates.\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – FOMC meeting Minutes.\r\nWEDNESDAY: CNY – Manufacturing PMi\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: EUR – German and French PMI.\r\nTHURSDAY: USD – Janet Yellen testifies.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: GBP – Retail Sales.\r\nFRIDAY: CAD – Core CPi &amp; Core Retail Sales.\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b>\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">5. THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</span></b>\r\n\r\nAs there are always new readers of this blog each week, I thought that I should mention the subscriber based option of the WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU that has been in existence now since the beginning of 2014; THE PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\nIt is an honest blog containing trade set-ups, profitable and losing trades, my ideas and thoughts and it also has for an instant communication to subscribers a dedicated protected TWITTER feed. All trades (profitable and losing) are monitored and recorded within the secure section of the WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU website.\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU:\r\n</span></b>(helping you to trade more consistently) <b></b>\r\n\r\n</p><p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">PREMIUM SERVICE   </span></b>\r\n\r\n</p><p align=\"center\">Are you a part-time forex trader?</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">Are you a novice trader still coming to terms with the complexities of trading the forex market full-time?</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">Do you feel a little overwhelmed with terminology, when to enter a trade, when to exit, what is being over-leveraged, what is effective risk / money management and what is a trading plan?</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">The PREMIUM SERVICE may be an option worthy of serious consideration.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">The PREMIUM SERVICE is not a robot.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">The PREMIUM SERVICE it is not an automated system.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">The PREMIUM SERVICE is not an expensive fleecing series of daily financial updates, pages long that do not give you trading ideas or trade set-ups.</p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">What is the PREMIUM SERVICE?</span></b></p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nFirstly, the PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber only addition to The WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU. The WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU is a weekly blog that I started over two years ago. Its aim was to review my thoughts and ideas on the forex market. I then started to add trade set-ups and write about trades that would be on my mind if certain events took place.\r\n\r\nI started to publish my future trade set-ups, which were predominantly profitable and as I approached my 100<sup>th</sup> blog, I decided that it was time to move to the next stage…. the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE contains trade-set ups of my various styles of trades that I developed into a successful formula for trading the forex market with more profitable than losing trades.\r\n\r\nAs a subscriber to the PREMIUM SERVICE, you will receive all my suggested trades whether they are: - FLASH trades, RADAR trades or FUNDAMENTAL trades via an exclusive protected Twitter feed. I give you my thoughts on entry, exit, trade size and what type of lot to trade.\r\n\r\nI do the risk assessment ahead of the trade. You decide whether you want to take the trade and what position size to take.\r\n\r\nIf you trade part-time: with the RADAR TRADE suggestions you simply load a limit order with your broker and the trade will enter and exit automatically, if you use the suggestions I provide, or you can chose your own exit strategy.\r\n\r\n(Full details and definitions of FLASH, RADAR and FUNDAMENTAL trades are inside the secure members area of the PREMIUM SERVICE)\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b> </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>What are the current trading success rates with the PREMIUM SERVICE?</b></p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nFrom my blogs published in December and January the following is an accurate trade by trade set up that was either “Blogged” or “Tweeted” via my twitter account @pipaccumulator (If you want more details please contact me directly via email - my address is at the foot of this document). I have my own history from the past 6 /7 years but it is displayed as below or in excel spread sheets as seen in my blog posts in the WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> and below.\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">December 2013 and January 2014: -</span></b>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">FLASH TRADES:</span></b></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">TOTAL TRADES: 28\r\nTOTAL PIPS NET PROFIT: 871</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">MICRO LOT TRADERS: 1 x micro lot traded your risk = 28 x $0.10 = $2.80\r\nYour reward was 871 x $0.10 = <b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">$87.10</span></b></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\" align=\"center\">MINI LOT TRADERS: 1 x mini lot traded your risk = 28 x $1.00 = $28.00\r\nYour reward was 871 x $1.00 = <b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">$871.00</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">STANDARD LOT TRADERS: 1 x standard lot traded your risk = 28 x $10.00\r\nYour reward was 871 x $10.00 = <b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">$8,710.00</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">RADAR TRADES:</span></b></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">TOTAL TRADES: 36\r\nTOTAL PIPS NET PROFIT: 646</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">MICRO LOT TRADERS: 1 x micro lot traded your risk = 36 x $0.10 = $3.60\r\nYour reward was 646 x $0.10 = <b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">$64.60</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">MINI LOT TRADERS: 1 x mini lot traded your risk = 36 x $1.00 = $36.00\r\nYour reward was 646 x $1.00 = <b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">$646.00</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">STANDARD LOT TRADERS: 1 x standard lot traded your risk = 36 x $360.00\r\nYour reward was 646 x $10.00 = <b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">$6,460.00</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">COMBINED RADAR &amp; FLASH TRADES:</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"> TOTAL TRADES: 64\r\nTOTAL PIPS NET PROFIT: 1,517</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">MICRO LOT TRADERS: 1 x micro lot traded your risk = 64 x $0.10 = $6.40\r\nYour reward was 1,517 x $0.10 = <b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">$151.70</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">MINI LOT TRADERS: 1 x mini lot traded your risk = 64 x $1.00 = $64.00\r\nYour reward was 1,517 x $1.00 = <b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">$1,517.00</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">STANDARD LOT TRADERS: 1 x standard lot traded your risk = 64 x $640.00\r\nYour reward was 1,517 x $10.00 = <b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">$15,710</span></b></p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nIf you go to <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> and check back over the past 8/9 posts you can see very clearly the growth week by week to give this total.\r\n\r\nI am NOT saying that this can be expected every month because I am a cautious trader.\r\n\r\nHowever, I do trade currencies to make money.\r\n\r\nWhilst I like the idea of longer-term trading, if the market looks false to me I will cut profitable trades and bank money. I am not looking for the glory of three/four week trades to show I have nerves of steel to make +300 pips or so. If I can make 300 pips from three or four 24/48-hour trades instead, who cares? It’s all about banking profits and minimizing risk.\r\n\r\nI will have a balance of intra-day, swing and long term trades. It is your choice to pick what you want to take and what to risk. I am a low-risk very conservative trader.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<p align=\"center\">FUNDAMENTALS MATTER TO ME</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">I TRADE TO MAKE MONEY…NOT TO PICK TOPS OR BOTTOMS</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">I TRADE LOW RISK</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">I DO NOT CHASE MARKETS</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">I LIKE THE TRADES TO COME TO ME</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">I AM NOT A GREEDY TRADER</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">I LIKE TO TRADE MOMENTUMS IN THE DIRECTION OF TRENDS</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">I USE FIBONACCI LEVELS TO ENTER &amp; EXIT ON MANY TRADES</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">PLUS</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">MY TRADING STYLE IS MIXED EVEN WITH THE ABOVE KEY BASICS</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">I USE THE PULLBACK STRATEGY TO ENTER AND I LIKE SWING AND LONGER-TERM TRADES (WHEN POSSIBLE)</p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe members area of the website contains not just the comprehensive trading history / journal of trades but it also contains as much support information as I can gather that is of use to help us all trade profitably. As time moves on, the support pages areas will increase so that it becomes a one-stop point of reference for all styles and types of traders regardless of experience.\r\n\r\nI am hoping to have a chat room so that subscribers and myself can chat live about potential live trades. In addition, if the number of participants is economically viable, I will hold webinars on trading issues. Below is a list of questions so far that will either be addressed by webinar or by a future section within a blog post.\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Trade Plans and how to work with them\r\nHow to find a good broker to partner with</b>\r\n<b>What trades for what broker\r\nMicro, Mini or Standard lots\r\nPlacing Stops</b>\r\n<b>Strategies on when to enter and exit trades</b>\r\n<b>Risk Assessment</b>\r\n<b>When to fade trades</b>\r\n<b>How to cost average effectively</b>\r\n<b>How to use Trade Zones effectively - Buy Zones and Sell zones</b>\r\n<b>Working with Fibonacci levels</b>\r\n<b>Basic Chart analysis</b></p>\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE will evolve as it moves forward. I have lots of ideas to integrate into this area, but I am also open to ideas from readers / followers and subscribers.\r\n\r\nThis is a very important step for me as well; I want the PREMIUM SERVICE to be different to other services currently available.\r\n\r\nWhilst upon first look, it may appear that the Premium Service is directed solely at new traders, or those with intermediate skill levels. Please note this is not my intention. Trading can be lonely, and sometimes it is good to feel that you are part of a team. With this in mind, I am thinking that a “Chat Room” style area would be of benefit to all traders to share ideas and trade set-ups. Plus, whether you are a new trader or an experienced trader it is always good to have a library of information available close at hand.\r\n\r\nWhat are the costs?\r\n\r\nThere will be 40 weekly blogs / issues per year. I will not write in the summer and over Christmas periods. There will be an unlimited amount of Twitter follow-ups to the exclusive subscribers on a Twitter secure feed during the week to review and act upon “FLASH, RADAR and FUNDAMENTAL trades” and issues emanating from previous blogs.\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>There are three subscription options: </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>ANNUAL (40 WEEK) SUBSCRIPTION: $750.00 (this equates to $18.75 per week) </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>20 WEEKS SUBSCRIPTION: $450.00 (this equates to $22.50 per week)  </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>10 WEEKS SUBSCRIPTION: $250.00 (this equates to $25.00 per week) </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>(All Fees are quoted in USD\r\nand\r\nPlease note: There are no refunds once a subscription is accepted)</b></p>\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">6. FINAL THOUGHTS:</span></b>\r\n\r\n<b>THE PREMIUM SERVICE – (Twitter Feed)</b>\r\n\r\nFirstly most of you do not avail of this facility, it is free and quite a lot goes on. To date over 300 tweets have been made. Many of them a multiples surrounding maybe just one piece of data but nevertheless, there is a lot going on.\r\n\r\nI have decided to place a structure around the tweets that are made with immediate effect, they are:\r\n\r\nEveryday before the North American equity markets open. There will be a tweet called “FIRST THOUGHTS”.\r\n\r\nMid morning in the U.S. session there will be a “MARKET UPDATE”\r\n\r\nIn the lunch period / afternoon session there will be a “FINAL THOUGHTS” tweet.\r\n\r\n24 x 7 there will be “TRADE UPDATES” and “TRADE SET-UPS” relating to FLASH, RADAR and FUNDAMENTAL trades.\r\n\r\nFinally, “NEWS FLASH” tweets, when applicable.\r\n\r\nI hope that this format will be well received.\r\n\r\nFor those of you that still happy with just the weekly trade set-ups, there is absolutely no problem from my side. I know time differences play a part, but the “Twitter Feed” can offer an additional edge…..think about it.\r\n\r\nBack to the markets, I expected consolidation last week. I suppose to some extent there was but there was a lot of volatility. This week I am expecting some movement as I believe that we are once again very close to the crossroads were sentiment changes.\r\n\r\nAs you know, the markets move on FEAR and GREED and I think FEAR is entering. If I am correct, that means volatility; be prepared.\r\n\r\nWith that in mind, always remember that there is a market everyday. You do not need to trade everyday to make your financial goals.\r\n\r\nGood luck and trade within your TRADE PLAN guidelines and most importantly use sound MONEY MANAGEMENT SKILLS to control your risk.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nSaturday February 15th 2014\r\n\r\nEMAIL / FOLLOW ME AT:\r\ndrivethru@weeklyfxdrivethru.com\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n<span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">Google+/scottpickering\r\n</span><span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">StockTwits; thepipaccumulator</span>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b> </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b> </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b> </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b> </b></p>\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b>\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','IT’S STILL ALL ABOUT FEAR AND GREED…EVEN MORE SO NOW','','inherit','open','closed','','3241-revision-v1','','','2014-02-15 15:20:37','2014-02-15 20:20:37','',3241,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/3241-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(3244,1,'2014-02-15 15:21:15','2014-02-15 20:21:15','<p style=\"text-align: left;\" align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">1. INTRODUCTION:</span></b></p>\r\nFrom a personal perspective, that was a great week of forex trading, with more than +500 pips profit during the week.\r\n\r\nI am however, a little concerned that some of the currency moves seem to be a little extreme. In particular last Wednesday was extreme. BOE Governor Carney presenting the quarterly BOE Inflation Report, basically kept his forward guidance in place and the GBP rallied like crazy across the board. Wednesday evening the Australian Unemployment data was poor and the AUD weakened. On Wednesday alone the moves in the GBP/AUD and GBP/NZD were terrific. The GBP/AUD nearly +500 pips on the day. I know the GBP/AUD is an exotic commodity cross-rate and moves will be volatile. At the same time the EUR/AUD moved up over +180 pips on the back of AUD Unemployment Data.\r\n\r\nThese moves, plus a few more factors are telling me that the markets are twitchy, and maybe over reacting.  I write this in the full knowledge that the equity markets are grinding higher, and in the full knowledge that the S&amp;P and Nasdaq are at 14 year highs. I will go deeper into my thoughts on this subject later in the blog.\r\n\r\nOne piece of news that really pissed me off was the ECB talking about “Negative Deposit Rates”.\r\n\r\nAt the last ECB Press Conference - ECB President Mario Draghi basically talked about Eurozone economic improvements and how things were starting to come together, cautious optimism was given as guidance. No new initiatives were discussed because of the improvements seen.\r\n\r\nThen within 7 days….it’s confirmed that the ECB had in fact discussed Negative Deposit Rates for member state banks depositing money with the ECB. This is mega news, market moving and important to investors to have knowledge of when making business decisions.\r\n\r\nIt just shows you that it is all a game. I had written many times about Draghi’s body language at the Press Conferences being poor and that he is hiding something. He is very uncomfortable at times. I have said that his testicles must be wired to a switch at the Bundesbank in Frankfurt and Angela Merkel’s office in Berlin, maybe I am not so far off the truth. He is very well managed, I have no doubt of this fact at all.\r\n\r\nAt times, I doubt the economic data validity released from China. The Eurozone is catching China up. We know that most of the Eurozone politicians and bureaucrats will save their own backs and be very economical with the truth at times regarding Eurozone matters.\r\n\r\nOn the basis that “Negative Deposit Rates” have in the past been dismissed as nonsense and were said to be no way near the discussion table and the fact that Draghi had the opportunity to control a discussion about the subject and didn’t, is in my opinion very poor leadership on his part. This is 100% why I think he is controlled, maybe not by gadgets wiring to his testicles, but controlled he is.\r\n\r\nOther news was that Janet Yellen completed her first “grilling” on the hill. I thought she gained more and more confidence as the testimony went on and to be frank, the U.S. politicians wouldn’t know how to ask a question if their lives depended upon it. They still haven’t learnt to ask a concise question. They use up most of their allotted time with waffle and assorted bulls**t. Nevertheless, I thought she came out on top and any uncertainty that the markets had on tapering were well and truly put to bed in my opinion.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">2. THE VIEW FROM MY TRADING DESK:</span></b><b style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\"> </b>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>IT’S STILL ALL ABOUT FEAR AND GREED…EVEN MORE SO NOW:</b><b> </b></p>\r\nI think that the markets are now very overbought and market participants are now getting twitchy. Sentiment is starting to change. Last year, for the equities markets it was all about “Buy the Dip”, a simple trading approach, because the FED was behind the markets with easing (Quantitative Easing), through it’s bond buying programme.\r\n\r\nGREED has been in pole position for quite sometime because the FED was market supportive. The “Buy on the Dip” mentality is starting to be less talked about even though equities grind higher and the S&amp;P and Nasdaq closed last week at 14 year highs. FED monetary policy has changed and the effects of tapering is a whole new ball game. The smart guys are selling into these rallies in my opinion.\r\n\r\nWe saw a 7% pullback over a week ago, and we were led to believe this was a buying opportunity, maybe it was. I just do not buy it. I have said it before and I say it again….the dis-connect / correlations are still off…these are clues not to be ignored. The fact we are at record highs just tells me that it has to stop sooner rather than later. It is how the markets react to a change in sentiment that very important. A GREED based market can switch to a market dictated by FEAR very quickly.\r\n\r\nEveryday I go through the same daily routines with my chart analysis. The following factors are playing heavy in my decision making process. I believe the moves ahead will be very, very big. I do not need to pick a top, I just want a good chunk of the available $$$ in the middle of oncoming trades. I definitely do not want to pick the market bottom either. That can be very costly and a dangerous sport: -<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">\r\n</span></b>\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>Gold is appreciating in value and has moved above the psychological $1,300 barrier. However, in my opinion it doesn’t get bullish in my eyes until it breaks above about $1,380. We have DEFLATION. So the recent run of buying Gold is fear? A flight to safety?</li>\r\n	<li>The Nikkei is selling off one day then bouncing back the next. It has bounced back off a lower trend line support.</li>\r\n	<li>Oil is struggling with $100.00.</li>\r\n	<li>Copper has gone really quiet.</li>\r\n	<li>The JPY pairs are not moving in sync anymore with equities. The best example is yesterday’s close (Friday). The S&amp;P and Nasdaq are at 14 year highs yet the USD/JPY has been hovering around a critical support level of 101.50 for the past 24-36 hours. It should be back at 110.00 given the circumstances.</li>\r\n	<li>The AUD/USD and NZD/USD whilst holding up really well are NOT breaking out. In fact, I am ready to short both of them because in my opinion I have confidence in the fact that the equities markets are going to roll over.</li>\r\n	<li>S&amp;P at 1800 becomes a critical support level. Below 1725 it is game on.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nMy feelings are well known. I am a USD bull and have been for about the past 5/6 months. The market dis-connect has been in play for some time. Inter-market correlations are bo****ksed. My lead currency indicators have been giving clues (AUD/USD &amp; USD/CAD) for months. The commodity currencies lead the way.\r\n\r\nThis is why I am so anxious to get long on the EUR/AUD, EUR/NZD, EUR/CAD, GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD and GBP/CAD. I chickened out on my original set of FUNDAMENTAL trades. I allowed myself to be influenced by other market participants. I am actively looking for the correct levels to enter the six currency trade pairs to the long side.\r\n\r\nWhen the sell-off starts the unwinding effect of these pairs will be incredibly strong.\r\n\r\nThis is when FEAR takes over in the mindset of traders and it will only intensify as the momentum gathers pace.\r\n\r\nIt just takes one negative spark of the right intensity to set this i.e: the sell off in motion. It may come from the emerging markets but my favourite would be either the Eurozone or China.\r\n\r\nThe snap back could happen at anytime.\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">3. LOOKING FORWARD…THE KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS:</span></b>\r\n\r\n<b>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3692.</b>  About a 60 pip move to the upside during the week but even with a lot of bullishness around - the upside has been capped at 1.3715 (a 127.6% Fibonacci extension).  However, I do not think that the bears get back in full control unless we break through support at 1.3610.\r\nThe EUR/USD Daily chart below shows the key trading points.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/EURUSD-DAILY-15.02.14.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-3231\" alt=\"EURUSD DAILY 15.02.14\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/EURUSD-DAILY-15.02.14-1024x522.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"522\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<b>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.6746.  </b>The cable is in breakout territory; the EUR moved upwards about 50 pips and the GBP/USD move higher in the same time period was almost three times greater. The next big resistance lies at 1.6780, which by coincidence with the EUR/USD is also a 127.6% Fibonacci extension. In my blog post outlining my thoughts for 2014, I talked about the “dis-connect” across the various markets. I suggested that I thought that the GBP would start to act more independently of the EUR. Here is the first case example. I can see cable rising beyond 1.6780 towards 1.7000 at a time when I think upwards moves in the EUR will be capped. Watch the EUR/GBP price action, I think 0.8000 cents is on. Support for the GBP/USD is at 1.6650.\r\n\r\n<b>AUD/USD: Closing Price 0.9031</b>.  I think that the AUD/USD is a great short somewhere between 0.9100 and 0.9200. I think that you can start building positions just below 0.9100. Unless it strides higher to short it I am not interested. I am looking forward to reading the RBA monetary policy meeting minutes this week to see what clues if any as to help with my trade set-up. Fundamentally, I see this pair around 0.8000 to 0.8500. For now I think we are range bound 0.9000 to 0.9100.\r\n\r\n<b>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8365</b>.  The most annoying pair in the forex market as far as I am concerned. Like the AUD/USD I think that we are range bound, stuck between 0.8300 and 0.8400.\r\n\r\n<b>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.0977.</b>  I have been all over this pair like a rash in the past week. I firmly believe that with a bit of USD strength coming through the markets this pair will fly through 1.1250 heading towards 1.1520. For now though we are having to suffer spikes and pullbacks. The range is 1.0940 to 1.1025. The 12 hour USD/CAD chart below shows the key levels to watch out for.\r\n\r\n<b> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/USDCAD-12-HOUR-15.02.2014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-3232\" alt=\"USDCAD 12 HOUR 15.02.2014\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/USDCAD-12-HOUR-15.02.2014-1024x522.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"522\" /></a></b>\r\n\r\n<b>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.8923</b>.  I was really excited about trading this pair recently. I was so excited I was relieved to exit my trade on a spike to resistance at 0.9040. Since that day we have fallen. I think a fall back to 0.8850 is a gift to pick and enter long, but I just think that we will continue in this very tight range that we are in until the EUR/USD break out in one direction or the other. The range for now that I am looking at is 0.8900 to 0.8950.\r\n\r\n<b>USD/JPY: Closing Price 101.78. </b> This pair is under real pressure to fall through support at 101.50. It has been at the precipice more than once so if it does not fall through the next time it tests support maybe we are destined to see a quite strong bounce towards 105.00 once again. Who knows? I have found the USD/JPY difficult to follow of late. One thing that I do know however is that equities are at multi year highs and the USD/JPY is falling. There is something wrong with this picture. The critical support at 101.50 must hold otherwise it will be sub 100.00 not too far after. Resistance is good at 102.60.\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b>\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">4. MAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:</span></b>\r\n\r\nSUNDAY: NZD – Retail Sales.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: AUD – Monetary Policy Minutes.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: GBP - CPi.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: GBP – Unemployment Rates.\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – FOMC meeting Minutes.\r\nWEDNESDAY: CNY – Manufacturing PMi\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: EUR – German and French PMI.\r\nTHURSDAY: USD – Janet Yellen testifies.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: GBP – Retail Sales.\r\nFRIDAY: CAD – Core CPi &amp; Core Retail Sales.\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b>\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">5. THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</span></b>\r\n\r\nAs there are always new readers of this blog each week, I thought that I should mention the subscriber based option of the WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU that has been in existence now since the beginning of 2014; THE PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\nIt is an honest blog containing trade set-ups, profitable and losing trades, my ideas and thoughts and it also has for an instant communication to subscribers a dedicated protected TWITTER feed. All trades (profitable and losing) are monitored and recorded within the secure section of the WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU website.\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU:\r\n</span></b>(helping you to trade more consistently) <b></b>\r\n\r\n</p><p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">PREMIUM SERVICE   </span></b>\r\n\r\n</p><p align=\"center\">Are you a part-time forex trader?</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">Are you a novice trader still coming to terms with the complexities of trading the forex market full-time?</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">Do you feel a little overwhelmed with terminology, when to enter a trade, when to exit, what is being over-leveraged, what is effective risk / money management and what is a trading plan?</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">The PREMIUM SERVICE may be an option worthy of serious consideration.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">The PREMIUM SERVICE is not a robot.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">The PREMIUM SERVICE it is not an automated system.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">The PREMIUM SERVICE is not an expensive fleecing series of daily financial updates, pages long that do not give you trading ideas or trade set-ups.</p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">What is the PREMIUM SERVICE?</span></b></p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nFirstly, the PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber only addition to The WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU. The WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU is a weekly blog that I started over two years ago. Its aim was to review my thoughts and ideas on the forex market. I then started to add trade set-ups and write about trades that would be on my mind if certain events took place.\r\n\r\nI started to publish my future trade set-ups, which were predominantly profitable and as I approached my 100<sup>th</sup> blog, I decided that it was time to move to the next stage…. the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE contains trade-set ups of my various styles of trades that I developed into a successful formula for trading the forex market with more profitable than losing trades.\r\n\r\nAs a subscriber to the PREMIUM SERVICE, you will receive all my suggested trades whether they are: - FLASH trades, RADAR trades or FUNDAMENTAL trades via an exclusive protected Twitter feed. I give you my thoughts on entry, exit, trade size and what type of lot to trade.\r\n\r\nI do the risk assessment ahead of the trade. You decide whether you want to take the trade and what position size to take.\r\n\r\nIf you trade part-time: with the RADAR TRADE suggestions you simply load a limit order with your broker and the trade will enter and exit automatically, if you use the suggestions I provide, or you can chose your own exit strategy.\r\n\r\n(Full details and definitions of FLASH, RADAR and FUNDAMENTAL trades are inside the secure members area of the PREMIUM SERVICE)\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b> </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>What are the current trading success rates with the PREMIUM SERVICE?</b></p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nFrom my blogs published in December and January the following is an accurate trade by trade set up that was either “Blogged” or “Tweeted” via my twitter account @pipaccumulator (If you want more details please contact me directly via email - my address is at the foot of this document). I have my own history from the past 6 /7 years but it is displayed as below or in excel spread sheets as seen in my blog posts in the WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> and below.\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">December 2013 and January 2014: -</span></b>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">FLASH TRADES:</span></b></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">TOTAL TRADES: 28\r\nTOTAL PIPS NET PROFIT: 871</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">MICRO LOT TRADERS: 1 x micro lot traded your risk = 28 x $0.10 = $2.80\r\nYour reward was 871 x $0.10 = <b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">$87.10</span></b></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\" align=\"center\">MINI LOT TRADERS: 1 x mini lot traded your risk = 28 x $1.00 = $28.00\r\nYour reward was 871 x $1.00 = <b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">$871.00</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">STANDARD LOT TRADERS: 1 x standard lot traded your risk = 28 x $10.00\r\nYour reward was 871 x $10.00 = <b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">$8,710.00</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">RADAR TRADES:</span></b></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">TOTAL TRADES: 36\r\nTOTAL PIPS NET PROFIT: 646</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">MICRO LOT TRADERS: 1 x micro lot traded your risk = 36 x $0.10 = $3.60\r\nYour reward was 646 x $0.10 = <b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">$64.60</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">MINI LOT TRADERS: 1 x mini lot traded your risk = 36 x $1.00 = $36.00\r\nYour reward was 646 x $1.00 = <b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">$646.00</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">STANDARD LOT TRADERS: 1 x standard lot traded your risk = 36 x $360.00\r\nYour reward was 646 x $10.00 = <b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">$6,460.00</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">COMBINED RADAR &amp; FLASH TRADES:</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"> TOTAL TRADES: 64\r\nTOTAL PIPS NET PROFIT: 1,517</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">MICRO LOT TRADERS: 1 x micro lot traded your risk = 64 x $0.10 = $6.40\r\nYour reward was 1,517 x $0.10 = <b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">$151.70</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">MINI LOT TRADERS: 1 x mini lot traded your risk = 64 x $1.00 = $64.00\r\nYour reward was 1,517 x $1.00 = <b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">$1,517.00</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">STANDARD LOT TRADERS: 1 x standard lot traded your risk = 64 x $640.00\r\nYour reward was 1,517 x $10.00 = <b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">$15,710</span></b></p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nIf you go to <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> and check back over the past 8/9 posts you can see very clearly the growth week by week to give this total.\r\n\r\nI am NOT saying that this can be expected every month because I am a cautious trader.\r\n\r\nHowever, I do trade currencies to make money.\r\n\r\nWhilst I like the idea of longer-term trading, if the market looks false to me I will cut profitable trades and bank money. I am not looking for the glory of three/four week trades to show I have nerves of steel to make +300 pips or so. If I can make 300 pips from three or four 24/48-hour trades instead, who cares? It’s all about banking profits and minimizing risk.\r\n\r\nI will have a balance of intra-day, swing and long term trades. It is your choice to pick what you want to take and what to risk. I am a low-risk very conservative trader.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<p align=\"center\">FUNDAMENTALS MATTER TO ME</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">I TRADE TO MAKE MONEY…NOT TO PICK TOPS OR BOTTOMS</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">I TRADE LOW RISK</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">I DO NOT CHASE MARKETS</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">I LIKE THE TRADES TO COME TO ME</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">I AM NOT A GREEDY TRADER</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">I LIKE TO TRADE MOMENTUMS IN THE DIRECTION OF TRENDS</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">I USE FIBONACCI LEVELS TO ENTER &amp; EXIT ON MANY TRADES</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">PLUS</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">MY TRADING STYLE IS MIXED EVEN WITH THE ABOVE KEY BASICS</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">I USE THE PULLBACK STRATEGY TO ENTER AND I LIKE SWING AND LONGER-TERM TRADES (WHEN POSSIBLE)</p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe members area of the website contains not just the comprehensive trading history / journal of trades but it also contains as much support information as I can gather that is of use to help us all trade profitably. As time moves on, the support pages areas will increase so that it becomes a one-stop point of reference for all styles and types of traders regardless of experience.\r\n\r\nI am hoping to have a chat room so that subscribers and myself can chat live about potential live trades. In addition, if the number of participants is economically viable, I will hold webinars on trading issues. Below is a list of questions so far that will either be addressed by webinar or by a future section within a blog post.\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Trade Plans and how to work with them\r\nHow to find a good broker to partner with</b>\r\n<b>What trades for what broker\r\nMicro, Mini or Standard lots\r\nPlacing Stops</b>\r\n<b>Strategies on when to enter and exit trades</b>\r\n<b>Risk Assessment</b>\r\n<b>When to fade trades</b>\r\n<b>How to cost average effectively</b>\r\n<b>How to use Trade Zones effectively - Buy Zones and Sell zones</b>\r\n<b>Working with Fibonacci levels</b>\r\n<b>Basic Chart analysis</b></p>\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE will evolve as it moves forward. I have lots of ideas to integrate into this area, but I am also open to ideas from readers / followers and subscribers.\r\n\r\nThis is a very important step for me as well; I want the PREMIUM SERVICE to be different to other services currently available.\r\n\r\nWhilst upon first look, it may appear that the Premium Service is directed solely at new traders, or those with intermediate skill levels. Please note this is not my intention. Trading can be lonely, and sometimes it is good to feel that you are part of a team. With this in mind, I am thinking that a “Chat Room” style area would be of benefit to all traders to share ideas and trade set-ups. Plus, whether you are a new trader or an experienced trader it is always good to have a library of information available close at hand.\r\n\r\nWhat are the costs?\r\n\r\nThere will be 40 weekly blogs / issues per year. I will not write in the summer and over Christmas periods. There will be an unlimited amount of Twitter follow-ups to the exclusive subscribers on a Twitter secure feed during the week to review and act upon “FLASH, RADAR and FUNDAMENTAL trades” and issues emanating from previous blogs.\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>There are three subscription options: </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>ANNUAL (40 WEEK) SUBSCRIPTION: $750.00 (this equates to $18.75 per week) </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>20 WEEKS SUBSCRIPTION: $450.00 (this equates to $22.50 per week)  </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>10 WEEKS SUBSCRIPTION: $250.00 (this equates to $25.00 per week) </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>(All Fees are quoted in USD\r\nand\r\nPlease note: There are no refunds once a subscription is accepted)</b></p>\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">6. FINAL THOUGHTS:</span></b>\r\n\r\n<b>THE PREMIUM SERVICE – (Twitter Feed)</b>\r\n\r\nFirstly most of you do not avail of this facility, it is free and quite a lot goes on. To date over 300 tweets have been made. Many of them a multiples surrounding maybe just one piece of data but nevertheless, there is a lot going on.\r\n\r\nI have decided to place a structure around the tweets that are made with immediate effect, they are:\r\n\r\nEveryday before the North American equity markets open. There will be a tweet called “FIRST THOUGHTS”.\r\n\r\nMid morning in the U.S. session there will be a “MARKET UPDATE”\r\n\r\nIn the lunch period / afternoon session there will be a “FINAL THOUGHTS” tweet.\r\n\r\n24 x 7 there will be “TRADE UPDATES” and “TRADE SET-UPS” relating to FLASH, RADAR and FUNDAMENTAL trades.\r\n\r\nFinally, “NEWS FLASH” tweets, when applicable.\r\n\r\nI hope that this format will be well received.\r\n\r\nFor those of you that still happy with just the weekly trade set-ups, there is absolutely no problem from my side. I know time differences play a part, but the “Twitter Feed” can offer an additional edge…..think about it.\r\n\r\nBack to the markets, I expected consolidation last week. I suppose to some extent there was but there was a lot of volatility. This week I am expecting some movement as I believe that we are once again very close to the crossroads were sentiment changes.\r\n\r\nAs you know, the markets move on FEAR and GREED and I think FEAR is entering. If I am correct, that means volatility; be prepared.\r\n\r\nWith that in mind, always remember that there is a market everyday. You do not need to trade everyday to make your financial goals.\r\n\r\nGood luck and trade within your TRADE PLAN guidelines and most importantly use sound MONEY MANAGEMENT SKILLS to control your risk.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nSaturday February 15th 2014\r\n\r\nEMAIL / FOLLOW ME AT:\r\ndrivethru@weeklyfxdrivethru.com\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n<span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">Google+/scottpickering\r\n</span><span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">StockTwits; thepipaccumulator</span>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b> </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b> </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b> </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b> </b></p>\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b>\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','IT’S STILL ALL ABOUT FEAR AND GREED…EVEN MORE SO NOW','','inherit','open','closed','','3241-revision-v1','','','2014-02-15 15:21:15','2014-02-15 20:21:15','',3241,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/3241-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(3245,1,'2014-02-15 15:23:20','2014-02-15 20:23:20','<p style=\"text-align: left;\" align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">1. INTRODUCTION:</span></b></p>\r\nFrom a personal perspective, that was a great week of forex trading, with more than +500 pips profit during the week.\r\n\r\nI am however, a little concerned that some of the currency moves seem to be a little extreme. In particular last Wednesday was extreme. BOE Governor Carney presenting the quarterly BOE Inflation Report, basically kept his forward guidance in place and the GBP rallied like crazy across the board. Wednesday evening the Australian Unemployment data was poor and the AUD weakened. On Wednesday alone the moves in the GBP/AUD and GBP/NZD were terrific. The GBP/AUD nearly +500 pips on the day. I know the GBP/AUD is an exotic commodity cross-rate and moves will be volatile. At the same time the EUR/AUD moved up over +180 pips on the back of AUD Unemployment Data.\r\n\r\nThese moves, plus a few more factors are telling me that the markets are twitchy, and maybe over reacting.  I write this in the full knowledge that the equity markets are grinding higher, and in the full knowledge that the S&amp;P and Nasdaq are at 14 year highs. I will go deeper into my thoughts on this subject later in the blog.\r\n\r\nOne piece of news that really pissed me off was the ECB talking about “Negative Deposit Rates”.\r\n\r\nAt the last ECB Press Conference - ECB President Mario Draghi basically talked about Eurozone economic improvements and how things were starting to come together, cautious optimism was given as guidance. No new initiatives were discussed because of the improvements seen.\r\n\r\nThen within 7 days….it’s confirmed that the ECB had in fact discussed Negative Deposit Rates for member state banks depositing money with the ECB. This is mega news, market moving and important to investors to have knowledge of when making business decisions.\r\n\r\nIt just shows you that it is all a game. I had written many times about Draghi’s body language at the Press Conferences being poor and that he is hiding something. He is very uncomfortable at times. I have said that his testicles must be wired to a switch at the Bundesbank in Frankfurt and Angela Merkel’s office in Berlin, maybe I am not so far off the truth. He is very well managed, I have no doubt of this fact at all.\r\n\r\nAt times, I doubt the economic data validity released from China. The Eurozone is catching China up. We know that most of the Eurozone politicians and bureaucrats will save their own backs and be very economical with the truth at times regarding Eurozone matters.\r\n\r\nOn the basis that “Negative Deposit Rates” have in the past been dismissed as nonsense and were said to be no way near the discussion table and the fact that Draghi had the opportunity to control a discussion about the subject and didn’t, is in my opinion very poor leadership on his part. This is 100% why I think he is controlled, maybe not by gadgets wiring to his testicles, but controlled he is.\r\n\r\nOther news was that Janet Yellen completed her first “grilling” on the hill. I thought she gained more and more confidence as the testimony went on and to be frank, the U.S. politicians wouldn’t know how to ask a question if their lives depended upon it. They still haven’t learnt to ask a concise question. They use up most of their allotted time with waffle and assorted bulls**t. Nevertheless, I thought she came out on top and any uncertainty that the markets had on tapering were well and truly put to bed in my opinion.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">2. THE VIEW FROM MY TRADING DESK:</span></b><b style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\"> </b>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>IT’S STILL ALL ABOUT FEAR AND GREED…EVEN MORE SO NOW:</b><b> </b></p>\r\nI think that the markets are now very overbought and market participants are now getting twitchy. Sentiment is starting to change. Last year, for the equities markets it was all about “Buy the Dip”, a simple trading approach, because the FED was behind the markets with easing (Quantitative Easing), through it’s bond buying programme.\r\n\r\nGREED has been in pole position for quite sometime because the FED was market supportive. The “Buy on the Dip” mentality is starting to be less talked about even though equities grind higher and the S&amp;P and Nasdaq closed last week at 14 year highs. FED monetary policy has changed and the effects of tapering is a whole new ball game. The smart guys are selling into these rallies in my opinion.\r\n\r\nWe saw a 7% pullback over a week ago, and we were led to believe this was a buying opportunity, maybe it was. I just do not buy it. I have said it before and I say it again….the dis-connect / correlations are still off…these are clues not to be ignored. The fact we are at record highs just tells me that it has to stop sooner rather than later. It is how the markets react to a change in sentiment that very important. A GREED based market can switch to a market dictated by FEAR very quickly.\r\n\r\nEveryday I go through the same daily routines with my chart analysis. The following factors are playing heavy in my decision making process. I believe the moves ahead will be very, very big. I do not need to pick a top, I just want a good chunk of the available $$$ in the middle of oncoming trades. I definitely do not want to pick the market bottom either. That can be very costly and a dangerous sport: -<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">\r\n</span></b>\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>Gold is appreciating in value and has moved above the psychological $1,300 barrier. However, in my opinion it doesn’t get bullish in my eyes until it breaks above about $1,380. We have DEFLATION. So the recent run of buying Gold is fear? A flight to safety?</li>\r\n	<li>The Nikkei is selling off one day then bouncing back the next. It has bounced back off a lower trend line support.</li>\r\n	<li>Oil is struggling with $100.00.</li>\r\n	<li>Copper has gone really quiet.</li>\r\n	<li>The JPY pairs are not moving in sync anymore with equities. The best example is yesterday’s close (Friday). The S&amp;P and Nasdaq are at 14 year highs yet the USD/JPY has been hovering around a critical support level of 101.50 for the past 24-36 hours. It should be back at 110.00 given the circumstances.</li>\r\n	<li>The AUD/USD and NZD/USD whilst holding up really well are NOT breaking out. In fact, I am ready to short both of them because in my opinion I have confidence in the fact that the equities markets are going to roll over.</li>\r\n	<li>S&amp;P at 1800 becomes a critical support level. Below 1725 it is game on.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nMy feelings are well known. I am a USD bull and have been for about the past 5/6 months. The market dis-connect has been in play for some time. Inter-market correlations are bo****ksed. My lead currency indicators have been giving clues (AUD/USD &amp; USD/CAD) for months. The commodity currencies lead the way.\r\n\r\nThis is why I am so anxious to get long on the EUR/AUD, EUR/NZD, EUR/CAD, GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD and GBP/CAD. I chickened out on my original set of FUNDAMENTAL trades. I allowed myself to be influenced by other market participants. I am actively looking for the correct levels to enter the six currency trade pairs to the long side.\r\n\r\nWhen the sell-off starts the unwinding effect of these pairs will be incredibly strong.\r\n\r\nThis is when FEAR takes over in the mindset of traders and it will only intensify as the momentum gathers pace.\r\n\r\nIt just takes one negative spark of the right intensity to set this i.e: the sell off in motion. It may come from the emerging markets but my favourite would be either the Eurozone or China.\r\n\r\nThe snap back could happen at anytime.\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">3. LOOKING FORWARD…THE KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS:</span></b>\r\n\r\n<b>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3692.</b>  About a 60 pip move to the upside during the week but even with a lot of bullishness around - the upside has been capped at 1.3715 (a 127.6% Fibonacci extension).  However, I do not think that the bears get back in full control unless we break through support at 1.3610.\r\nThe EUR/USD Daily chart below shows the key trading points.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/EURUSD-DAILY-15.02.14.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-3231\" alt=\"EURUSD DAILY 15.02.14\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/EURUSD-DAILY-15.02.14-1024x522.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"522\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<b>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.6746.  </b>The cable is in breakout territory; the EUR moved upwards about 50 pips and the GBP/USD move higher in the same time period was almost three times greater. The next big resistance lies at 1.6780, which by coincidence with the EUR/USD is also a 127.6% Fibonacci extension. In my blog post outlining my thoughts for 2014, I talked about the “dis-connect” across the various markets. I suggested that I thought that the GBP would start to act more independently of the EUR. Here is the first case example. I can see cable rising beyond 1.6780 towards 1.7000 at a time when I think upwards moves in the EUR will be capped. Watch the EUR/GBP price action, I think 0.8000 cents is on. Support for the GBP/USD is at 1.6650.\r\n\r\n<b>AUD/USD: Closing Price 0.9031</b>.  I think that the AUD/USD is a great short somewhere between 0.9100 and 0.9200. I think that you can start building positions just below 0.9100. Unless it strides higher to short it I am not interested. I am looking forward to reading the RBA monetary policy meeting minutes this week to see what clues if any as to help with my trade set-up. Fundamentally, I see this pair around 0.8000 to 0.8500. For now I think we are range bound 0.9000 to 0.9100.\r\n\r\n<b>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8365</b>.  The most annoying pair in the forex market as far as I am concerned. Like the AUD/USD I think that we are range bound, stuck between 0.8300 and 0.8400.\r\n\r\n<b>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.0977.</b>  I have been all over this pair like a rash in the past week. I firmly believe that with a bit of USD strength coming through the markets this pair will fly through 1.1250 heading towards 1.1520. For now though we are having to suffer spikes and pullbacks. The range is 1.0940 to 1.1025. The 12 hour USD/CAD chart below shows the key levels to watch out for.\r\n\r\n<b> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/USDCAD-12-HOUR-15.02.2014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-3232\" alt=\"USDCAD 12 HOUR 15.02.2014\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/USDCAD-12-HOUR-15.02.2014-1024x522.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"522\" /></a></b>\r\n\r\n<b>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.8923</b>.  I was really excited about trading this pair recently. I was so excited I was relieved to exit my trade on a spike to resistance at 0.9040. Since that day we have fallen. I think a fall back to 0.8850 is a gift to pick and enter long, but I just think that we will continue in this very tight range that we are in until the EUR/USD break out in one direction or the other. The range for now that I am looking at is 0.8900 to 0.8950.\r\n\r\n<b>USD/JPY: Closing Price 101.78. </b> This pair is under real pressure to fall through support at 101.50. It has been at the precipice more than once so if it does not fall through the next time it tests support maybe we are destined to see a quite strong bounce towards 105.00 once again. Who knows? I have found the USD/JPY difficult to follow of late. One thing that I do know however is that equities are at multi year highs and the USD/JPY is falling. There is something wrong with this picture. The critical support at 101.50 must hold otherwise it will be sub 100.00 not too far after. Resistance is good at 102.60.\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b>\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">4. MAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:</span></b>\r\n\r\nSUNDAY: NZD – Retail Sales.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: AUD – Monetary Policy Minutes.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: GBP - CPi.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: GBP – Unemployment Rates.\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – FOMC meeting Minutes.\r\nWEDNESDAY: CNY – Manufacturing PMi\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: EUR – German and French PMI.\r\nTHURSDAY: USD – Janet Yellen testifies.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: GBP – Retail Sales.\r\nFRIDAY: CAD – Core CPi &amp; Core Retail Sales.\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b>\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">5. THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</span></b>\r\n\r\nAs there are always new readers of this blog each week, I thought that I should mention the subscriber based option of the WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU that has been in existence now since the beginning of 2014; THE PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\nIt is an honest blog containing trade set-ups, profitable and losing trades, my ideas and thoughts and it also has for an instant communication to subscribers a dedicated protected TWITTER feed. All trades (profitable and losing) are monitored and recorded within the secure section of the WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU website.\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU:\r\n</span></b>(helping you to trade more consistently) <b></b>\r\n\r\n</p><p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">PREMIUM SERVICE   </span></b>\r\n\r\n</p><p align=\"center\">Are you a part-time forex trader?</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">Are you a novice trader still coming to terms with the complexities of trading the forex market full-time?</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">Do you feel a little overwhelmed with terminology, when to enter a trade, when to exit, what is being over-leveraged, what is effective risk / money management and what is a trading plan?</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">The PREMIUM SERVICE may be an option worthy of serious consideration.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">The PREMIUM SERVICE is not a robot.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">The PREMIUM SERVICE it is not an automated system.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">The PREMIUM SERVICE is not an expensive fleecing series of daily financial updates, pages long that do not give you trading ideas or trade set-ups.</p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">What is the PREMIUM SERVICE?</span></b></p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nFirstly, the PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber only addition to The WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU. The WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU is a weekly blog that I started over two years ago. Its aim was to review my thoughts and ideas on the forex market. I then started to add trade set-ups and write about trades that would be on my mind if certain events took place.\r\n\r\nI started to publish my future trade set-ups, which were predominantly profitable and as I approached my 100<sup>th</sup> blog, I decided that it was time to move to the next stage…. the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE contains trade-set ups of my various styles of trades that I developed into a successful formula for trading the forex market with more profitable than losing trades.\r\n\r\nAs a subscriber to the PREMIUM SERVICE, you will receive all my suggested trades whether they are: - FLASH trades, RADAR trades or FUNDAMENTAL trades via an exclusive protected Twitter feed. I give you my thoughts on entry, exit, trade size and what type of lot to trade.\r\n\r\nI do the risk assessment ahead of the trade. You decide whether you want to take the trade and what position size to take.\r\n\r\nIf you trade part-time: with the RADAR TRADE suggestions you simply load a limit order with your broker and the trade will enter and exit automatically, if you use the suggestions I provide, or you can chose your own exit strategy.\r\n\r\n(Full details and definitions of FLASH, RADAR and FUNDAMENTAL trades are inside the secure members area of the PREMIUM SERVICE)\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b> </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>What are the current trading success rates with the PREMIUM SERVICE?</b></p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nFrom my blogs published in December and January the following is an accurate trade by trade set up that was either “Blogged” or “Tweeted” via my twitter account @pipaccumulator (If you want more details please contact me directly via email - my address is at the foot of this document). I have my own history from the past 6 /7 years but it is displayed as below or in excel spread sheets as seen in my blog posts in the WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> and below.\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">December 2013 and January 2014: -</span></b>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">FLASH TRADES:</span></b></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">TOTAL TRADES: 28\r\nTOTAL PIPS NET PROFIT: 871</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">MICRO LOT TRADERS: 1 x micro lot traded your risk = 28 x $0.10 = $2.80\r\nYour reward was 871 x $0.10 = <b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">$87.10</span></b></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\" align=\"center\">MINI LOT TRADERS: 1 x mini lot traded your risk = 28 x $1.00 = $28.00\r\nYour reward was 871 x $1.00 = <b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">$871.00</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">STANDARD LOT TRADERS: 1 x standard lot traded your risk = 28 x $10.00\r\nYour reward was 871 x $10.00 = <b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">$8,710.00</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">RADAR TRADES:</span></b></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">TOTAL TRADES: 36\r\nTOTAL PIPS NET PROFIT: 646</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">MICRO LOT TRADERS: 1 x micro lot traded your risk = 36 x $0.10 = $3.60\r\nYour reward was 646 x $0.10 = <b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">$64.60</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">MINI LOT TRADERS: 1 x mini lot traded your risk = 36 x $1.00 = $36.00\r\nYour reward was 646 x $1.00 = <b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">$646.00</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">STANDARD LOT TRADERS: 1 x standard lot traded your risk = 36 x $360.00\r\nYour reward was 646 x $10.00 = <b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">$6,460.00</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">COMBINED RADAR &amp; FLASH TRADES:</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"> TOTAL TRADES: 64\r\nTOTAL PIPS NET PROFIT: 1,517</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">MICRO LOT TRADERS: 1 x micro lot traded your risk = 64 x $0.10 = $6.40\r\nYour reward was 1,517 x $0.10 = <b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">$151.70</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">MINI LOT TRADERS: 1 x mini lot traded your risk = 64 x $1.00 = $64.00\r\nYour reward was 1,517 x $1.00 = <b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">$1,517.00</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">STANDARD LOT TRADERS: 1 x standard lot traded your risk = 64 x $640.00\r\nYour reward was 1,517 x $10.00 = <b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">$15,710</span></b></p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nIf you go to <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> and check back over the past 8/9 posts you can see very clearly the growth week by week to give this total.\r\n\r\nI am NOT saying that this can be expected every month because I am a cautious trader.\r\n\r\nHowever, I do trade currencies to make money.\r\n\r\nWhilst I like the idea of longer-term trading, if the market looks false to me I will cut profitable trades and bank money. I am not looking for the glory of three/four week trades to show I have nerves of steel to make +300 pips or so. If I can make 300 pips from three or four 24/48-hour trades instead, who cares? It’s all about banking profits and minimizing risk.\r\n\r\nI will have a balance of intra-day, swing and long term trades. It is your choice to pick what you want to take and what to risk. I am a low-risk very conservative trader.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<p align=\"center\">FUNDAMENTALS MATTER TO ME</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">I TRADE TO MAKE MONEY…NOT TO PICK TOPS OR BOTTOMS</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">I TRADE LOW RISK</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">I DO NOT CHASE MARKETS</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">I LIKE THE TRADES TO COME TO ME</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">I AM NOT A GREEDY TRADER</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">I LIKE TO TRADE MOMENTUMS IN THE DIRECTION OF TRENDS</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">I USE FIBONACCI LEVELS TO ENTER &amp; EXIT ON MANY TRADES</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">PLUS</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">MY TRADING STYLE IS MIXED EVEN WITH THE ABOVE KEY BASICS</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">I USE THE PULLBACK STRATEGY TO ENTER AND I LIKE SWING AND LONGER-TERM TRADES (WHEN POSSIBLE)</p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe members area of the website contains not just the comprehensive trading history / journal of trades but it also contains as much support information as I can gather that is of use to help us all trade profitably. As time moves on, the support pages areas will increase so that it becomes a one-stop point of reference for all styles and types of traders regardless of experience.\r\n\r\nI am hoping to have a chat room so that subscribers and myself can chat live about potential live trades. In addition, if the number of participants is economically viable, I will hold webinars on trading issues. Below is a list of questions so far that will either be addressed by webinar or by a future section within a blog post.\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Trade Plans and how to work with them\r\nHow to find a good broker to partner with</b>\r\n<b>What trades for what broker\r\nMicro, Mini or Standard lots\r\nPlacing Stops</b>\r\n<b>Strategies on when to enter and exit trades</b>\r\n<b>Risk Assessment</b>\r\n<b>When to fade trades</b>\r\n<b>How to cost average effectively</b>\r\n<b>How to use Trade Zones effectively - Buy Zones and Sell zones</b>\r\n<b>Working with Fibonacci levels</b>\r\n<b>Basic Chart analysis</b></p>\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE will evolve as it moves forward. I have lots of ideas to integrate into this area, but I am also open to ideas from readers / followers and subscribers.\r\n\r\nThis is a very important step for me as well; I want the PREMIUM SERVICE to be different to other services currently available.\r\n\r\nWhilst upon first look, it may appear that the Premium Service is directed solely at new traders, or those with intermediate skill levels. Please note this is not my intention. Trading can be lonely, and sometimes it is good to feel that you are part of a team. With this in mind, I am thinking that a “Chat Room” style area would be of benefit to all traders to share ideas and trade set-ups. Plus, whether you are a new trader or an experienced trader it is always good to have a library of information available close at hand.\r\n\r\nWhat are the costs?\r\n\r\nThere will be 40 weekly blogs / issues per year. I will not write in the summer and over Christmas periods. There will be an unlimited amount of Twitter follow-ups to the exclusive subscribers on a Twitter secure feed during the week to review and act upon “FLASH, RADAR and FUNDAMENTAL trades” and issues emanating from previous blogs.\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>There are three subscription options: </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>ANNUAL (40 WEEK) SUBSCRIPTION: $750.00 (this equates to $18.75 per week) </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>20 WEEKS SUBSCRIPTION: $450.00 (this equates to $22.50 per week)  </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>10 WEEKS SUBSCRIPTION: $250.00 (this equates to $25.00 per week) </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>(All Fees are quoted in USD\r\nand\r\nPlease note: There are no refunds once a subscription is accepted)</b></p>\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">6. FINAL THOUGHTS:</span></b>\r\n\r\n<b>THE PREMIUM SERVICE – (Twitter Feed)</b>\r\n\r\nFirstly most of you do not avail of this facility, it is free and quite a lot goes on. To date over 300 tweets have been made. Many of them a multiples surrounding maybe just one piece of data but nevertheless, there is a lot going on.\r\n\r\nI have decided to place a structure around the tweets that are made with immediate effect, they are:\r\n\r\nEveryday before the North American equity markets open. There will be a tweet called “FIRST THOUGHTS”.\r\n\r\nMid morning in the U.S. session there will be a “MARKET UPDATE”\r\n\r\nIn the lunch period / afternoon session there will be a “FINAL THOUGHTS” tweet.\r\n\r\n24 x 7 there will be “TRADE UPDATES” and “TRADE SET-UPS” relating to FLASH, RADAR and FUNDAMENTAL trades.\r\n\r\nFinally, “NEWS FLASH” tweets, when applicable.\r\n\r\nI hope that this format will be well received.\r\n\r\nFor those of you that still happy with just the weekly trade set-ups, there is absolutely no problem from my side. I know time differences play a part, but the “Twitter Feed” can offer an additional edge…..think about it.\r\n\r\nBack to the markets, I expected consolidation last week. I suppose to some extent there was but there was a lot of volatility. This week I am expecting some movement as I believe that we are once again very close to the crossroads were sentiment changes.\r\n\r\nAs you know, the markets move on FEAR and GREED and I think FEAR is entering. If I am correct, that means volatility; be prepared.\r\n\r\nWith that in mind, always remember that there is a market everyday. You do not need to trade everyday to make your financial goals.\r\n\r\nGood luck and trade within your TRADE PLAN guidelines and most importantly use sound MONEY MANAGEMENT SKILLS to control your risk.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nSaturday February 15th 2014\r\n\r\nEMAIL / FOLLOW ME AT:\r\ndrivethru@weeklyfxdrivethru.com\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n<span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">Google+/scottpickering\r\n</span><span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">StockTwits; thepipaccumulator</span>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b> </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b> </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b> </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b> </b></p>\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b>\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','IT’S STILL ALL ABOUT FEAR AND GREED…EVEN MORE SO NOW','','inherit','open','closed','','3241-revision-v1','','','2014-02-15 15:23:20','2014-02-15 20:23:20','',3241,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/3241-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(3246,1,'2014-02-15 15:59:34','2014-02-15 20:59:34','<p style=\"text-align: left;\" align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">1. INTRODUCTION:</span></b></p>\r\nFrom a personal perspective, that was a great week of forex trading, with more than +500 pips profit during the week.\r\n\r\nI am however, a little concerned that some of the currency moves seem to be a little extreme. In particular last Wednesday was extreme. BOE Governor Carney presenting the quarterly BOE Inflation Report, basically kept his forward guidance in place and the GBP rallied like crazy across the board. Wednesday evening the Australian Unemployment data was poor and the AUD weakened. On Wednesday alone the moves in the GBP/AUD and GBP/NZD were terrific. The GBP/AUD nearly +500 pips on the day. I know the GBP/AUD is an exotic commodity cross-rate and moves will be volatile. At the same time the EUR/AUD moved up over +180 pips on the back of AUD Unemployment Data.\r\n\r\nThese moves, plus a few more factors are telling me that the markets are twitchy, and maybe over reacting.  I write this in the full knowledge that the equity markets are grinding higher, and in the full knowledge that the S&amp;P and Nasdaq are at 14 year highs. I will go deeper into my thoughts on this subject later in the blog.\r\n\r\nOne piece of news that really pissed me off was the ECB talking about “Negative Deposit Rates”.\r\n\r\nAt the last ECB Press Conference - ECB President Mario Draghi basically talked about Eurozone economic improvements and how things were starting to come together, cautious optimism was given as guidance. No new initiatives were discussed because of the improvements seen.\r\n\r\nThen within 7 days….it’s confirmed that the ECB had in fact discussed Negative Deposit Rates for member state banks depositing money with the ECB. This is mega news, market moving and important to investors to have knowledge of when making business decisions.\r\n\r\nIt just shows you that it is all a game. I had written many times about Draghi’s body language at the Press Conferences being poor and that he is hiding something. He is very uncomfortable at times. I have said that his testicles must be wired to a switch at the Bundesbank in Frankfurt and Angela Merkel’s office in Berlin, maybe I am not so far off the truth. He is very well managed, I have no doubt of this fact at all.\r\n\r\nAt times, I doubt the economic data validity released from China. The Eurozone is catching China up. We know that most of the Eurozone politicians and bureaucrats will save their own backs and be very economical with the truth at times regarding Eurozone matters.\r\n\r\nOn the basis that “Negative Deposit Rates” have in the past been dismissed as nonsense and were said to be no way near the discussion table and the fact that Draghi had the opportunity to control a discussion about the subject and didn’t, is in my opinion very poor leadership on his part. This is 100% why I think he is controlled, maybe not by gadgets wiring to his testicles, but controlled he is.\r\n\r\nOther news was that Janet Yellen completed her first “grilling” on the hill. I thought she gained more and more confidence as the testimony went on and to be frank, the U.S. politicians wouldn’t know how to ask a question if their lives depended upon it. They still haven’t learnt to ask a concise question. They use up most of their allotted time with waffle and assorted bulls**t. Nevertheless, I thought she came out on top and any uncertainty that the markets had on tapering were well and truly put to bed in my opinion.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">2. TRADING SUMMARY:</span></b>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">RADAR, FLASH and FUNDAMENTAL TRADES</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">FEBRUARY 2014 and YEAR to date:</span></b></p>\r\nIt was a great start to the week and with primary market moving data towards the end of the week I traded less and basically observed. So on a pure volume of trades basis - it was quiet..\r\n\r\nBelow I show the up to date performances for my various trading styles. Full excel spreadsheets are in the subscriber area of the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">RADAR TRADES:</span></b><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">PROFITS FROM SINGLE LOT COMPLETED RADAR TRADES:</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x MICRO-LOT:\r\n10 trades at $0.10 cents each = $1.00 risk for $13.90 profit.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">1 x MINI-LOT:\r\n</span><span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">10 trades at $1.00 each = $10.00 risk for $139.00 profit.</span></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x STANDARD LOT:\r\n10 trades at $10.00 each = $100.00 risk for $1,390.00 profit.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">FLASH TRADES:</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">PROFITS FROM SINGLE LOT COMPLETED FLASH TRADES:</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x MICRO-LOT:\r\n17 trades at $0.10 cents each = $1.70 cents risk for $47.00 profit.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x MINI-LOT:\r\n17 trades at $1.00 each = $17.00 risk for $470.00 profit.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x STANDARD LOT:\r\n17 trades at $10.00 each = $170.00 risk for $4,700.00 profit.<b style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">FUNDAMENTAL TRADES:</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">PROFITS FROM SINGLE LOT COMPLETED FUNDAMENTAL TRADES:</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x MICRO-LOT:\r\n4 trades at $0.10 cents each = $0.40 cents risk for $49.40 loss.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x MINI-LOT:\r\n4 trades at $1.00 each = $4.00 risk for $494.00 loss.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x STANDARD LOT:\r\n4 trades at $10.00 each = $40.00 risk for $4,940.00 loss</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">COMBINED FLASH, RADAR AND FUNDAMENTAL TRADES PROFIT PERFORMANCE</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">JANUARY 2014…SO FAR:</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">TRADING MICRO-LOTS:\r\n31 trades at $0.10 cents each = $3.10 risk for $11.50 profit.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">TRADING MINI-LOTS:\r\n31 trades at $1.00 each = $31.00 risk for $115.00 profit.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">TRADING STANDARD LOTS:\r\n31 trades at $10.00 each = $310.00 risk for $1,150.00 profit.</p>\r\nThe above examples are for illustration purposes only:\r\n\r\nThe profitability examples detailed above are based solely upon single lot trading, regardless of lot type. If multiple lot sizes are traded the profitability margins will be different than those shown.\r\n\r\nJust to provide more information so you understand where I am coming from with the risk / reward statements above. All of my trades are of different sizes and different size lot types. The above does not reflect the actual trading performance. I like to add to trades, profits are taken as the trade progresses and my overall cost average moves several times. All of my trades are of different lot styles. I trade a mixture of micro lots, mini lots and standard lots across my brokers.\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">3. THE FUNDAMENTAL TRADERS OVERVIEW:</span></b><b> </b>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>IT’S STILL ALL ABOUT FEAR AND GREED…EVEN MORE SO NOW:</b><b> </b></p>\r\nI think that the markets are now very overbought and market participants are now getting twitchy. Sentiment  is starting to change. Last year, for the equities markets it was all about “Buy the Dip”, a simple trading approach, because the FED was behind the markets with easing (Quantitative Easing), through it’s bond buying programme.\r\n\r\nGREED has been in pole position for quite sometime because the FED was market supportive. The “Buy on the Dip” mentality is starting to be less talked about even though equities grind higher and the S&amp;P and Nasdaq closed last week at 14 year highs. FED monetary policy has changed and the effects of\r\n\r\ntapering is a whole new ball game. The smart guys are selling into these rallies in my opinion.\r\n\r\nWe saw a 7% pullback over a week ago, and we were led to believe this was a buying opportunity, maybe it was. I just do not buy it. I have said it before and I say it again….the dis-connect / correlations are still off…these are clues not to be ignored. The fact we are at record highs just tells me that it has to stop sooner rather than later. It is how the markets react to a change in sentiment that very important. A GREED based market can switch to a market dictated by FEAR very quickly.\r\n\r\nEveryday I go through the same daily routines with my chart analysis. The following factors are playing heavy in my decision making process. I believe the moves ahead will be very, very big. I do not need to pick a top, I just want a good chunk of the available $$$ in the middle of oncoming trades. I definitely do not want to pick the market bottom either. That can be very costly and a dangerous sport: -<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">\r\n</span></b>\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>Gold is appreciating in value and has moved above the psychological $1,300 barrier. However, in my opinion it doesn’t get bullish in my eyes until it breaks above about $1,380. We have DEFLATION. So the recent run of buying Gold is fear? A flight to safety?</li>\r\n	<li>The Nikkei is selling off one day then bouncing back the next. It has bounced back off a lower trend line support.</li>\r\n	<li>Oil is struggling with $100.00.</li>\r\n	<li>Copper has gone really quiet.</li>\r\n	<li>The JPY pairs are not moving in sync anymore with equities. The best example is yesterday’s close (Friday). The S&amp;P and Nasdaq are at 14 year highs yet the USD/JPY has been hovering around a critical support level of 101.50 for the past 24-36 hours. It should be back at 110.00 given the circumstances.</li>\r\n	<li>The AUD/USD and NZD/USD whilst holding up really well are NOT breaking out. In fact, I am ready to short both of them because in my opinion I have confidence in the fact that the equities markets are going to roll over.</li>\r\n	<li>S&amp;P at 1800 becomes a critical support level. Below 1725 it is game on.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nMy feelings are well known. I am a USD bull and have been for about the past 5/6 months. The market dis-connect has been in play for some time. Inter-market correlations are bo****ksed. My lead currency indicators have been giving clues (AUD/USD &amp; USD/CAD) for months. The commodity currencies lead the way.\r\n\r\nThis is why I am so anxious to get long on the EUR/AUD, EUR/NZD, EUR/CAD, GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD and GBP/CAD. I chickened out on my original set of FUNDAMENTAL trades. I allowed myself to be influenced by other market participants. I am actively looking for the correct levels to enter the six currency trade pairs to the long side.\r\n\r\nWhen the sell-off starts the unwinding effect of these pairs will be incredibly strong.\r\n\r\nThis is when FEAR takes over in the mindset of traders and it will only intensify as the momentum gathers pace.\r\n\r\nIt just takes one negative spark of the right intensity to set this i.e: the sell off in motion. It may come from the emerging markets but my favourite would be either the Eurozone or China.\r\n\r\nThe snap back could happen at anytime.\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">4. TRADER TOPICS:</span></b>\r\n\r\nFollowing the introduction of FUNDAMENTAL trades, HEDGING came into play. Below, I provide my approach plus some general supporting information on HEDGING.<b> </b>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">HEDGING (MY APPROACH):</span></b></p>\r\nThe reasons for writing about HEDGING this week is because several of you wrote to me asking me questions on how and why I HEDGE on my FUNDAMENTAL trades?\r\n\r\nI only ever use this approach on long term position style (FUNDAMENTAL) trades. For me it is just something that I introduce on a losing pip value related to my risk tolerance for a trade.\r\n\r\nI hope that the example below is easy to follow: -\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<p align=\"center\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>TRADE 1:</strong></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">EUR/AUD\r\nLONG\r\nENTRY: 1.5000\r\nPOSITION SIZE: 5 x MICRO LOTS\r\nMONTHLY ATR: 720\r\nSTOP LOSS: 1.4250</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">TRADE RISK IN TOTAL = $375.00\r\nHEDGED LOSS MAXIMUM 200 pips = $100.00</p>\r\nTherefore in this instance I would place an order with my broker at the same time of the initial trade to sell the EUR/AUD as follows: -\r\n<p align=\"center\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>HEDGED TRADE:</strong></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">EUR/AUD\r\nSHORT\r\nENTRY: 1.4800\r\n<span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">POSITION SIZE: 5 x MICRO LOTS\r\n</span><span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">STOP LOSS: 1.5000</span></p>\r\nBy doing this I am allowing “wiggle room” of 200 pips for the pair when the initial trade is activated to move in the direction that I want it to. If the pair drops more than 200 pips my HEDGE is triggered so my trade is always limited to a loss of 200 pips and a financial loss of $100.00.\r\n\r\nYou must also consider with exotic cross-rate currencies the overnight swap rates mount up very quickly and this can become quite expensive. This was the reason I closed my 6 trades last week that were hedged. My losses were limited but the overnight costs were mounting on 12 trades.\r\n\r\nThis is my approach, as I promised I would detail my way of approaching hedging.\r\n\r\nBelow I have supplied you with HEDGING definitions and styles that I was taught as a  “Newbie” trader.\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">USING A HEDGING STRATEGY IN FOREX:</span></b></p>\r\nBasically hedging is a way to protect you as a Forex trader against a big loss. The best way to view hedging is to consider it insurance on your trade. Basically, I view it as a way to reduce the amount of the loss that you would have incurred if something totally unexpected happened.\r\n\r\nSome brokers will allow you to place trades that are direct hedges. This means that you are allowed to place a trade that has you both buying and selling the same currency pair at the same time if you want to do that. While the net profit is zero when both trades are open, you can make money without additional risk if you time the market right.\r\n\r\n<b>SIMPLE FOREX HEDGING:</b>\r\n\r\nThe simple hedge allows you to trade in both directions with the same currency pair without having to close the initial trade. It can of course be argued that it makes sense to close the initial trade for a loss (if it was a losing trade) and enter a new trade at a better price, still keeping the hedging trade active. This is up to you as a trader. You could definitely close the original loss making trade and enter again in your original direction, but the benefits of the hedge is that you can keep your trade on the market and make money on the second trade that makes a profit as the market moves against your initial trade. When you suspect that the market is going to reverse and your initial trade will be heading for a positive position, you can set a stop on the hedging trade, or you could of course just close it.\r\n\r\n<b>COMPLEX HEDGING:</b>\r\n\r\nSome brokers will not allow you to hedge directly in the same trading account with the same currency pair, so an alternative method could be adopted.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">As you know there are currency pairs that have inverted relationships so if you go long or short on one you can go in the opposite direction with the other pair. Whilst this isn’t a perfect science it is in effect HEDGING.\r\n\r\nEUR/USD and USD/CHF\r\nEUR/GBP and GBP/CHF</p>\r\nThe above pairs tend to operate in an inverted manner, and this could be described as hedging.\r\n\r\n<b>REASONS TO HEDGE:</b>\r\n\r\nThe main reason that anyone trading any security or forex pairs wants to use hedging is to limit risk.\r\n\r\nHEDGING can be a bigger part of your trading plan if done carefully. Only experienced traders that understand the market swings and timings should see HEDGING. It is NOT something that without adequate trading experience should be played with, as, it can be costly.\r\n\r\n<b>THE HEDGING STRATEGY:</b>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">With my example at the beginning of this section you can see that the whole basis of my hedge was firmly positioned around risk.\r\n\r\nThe are four parts to the strategy that MUST be adhered to:</p>\r\n\r\n<ol style=\"text-align: left;\">\r\n	<li>ANALYZE YOUR RISK:\r\nAs any normal trade – assess your risk before you enter.</li>\r\n	<li>DETERMINE YOUR RISK TOLERANCE:\r\nAre you hedging the full or partial amount of the trade? This is based upon your own risk tolerances and your TRADING PLAN.</li>\r\n	<li>DETERMINE YOUR FOREX HEDGING STRATEGY:\r\nWrite it out to check, prices, levels and entry and exit rules.</li>\r\n	<li>IMPLEMENT AND MONITOR YOUR STRATEGY:\r\nCheck your figures and entries and exits should the HEDGED TRADE trigger.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<b>SUMMARY:</b>\r\n\r\nThere are many complicated HEDGING STRATEGIES that I have come across in the past seven years.\r\n\r\nMy approach is simple (I think) and easy to use but there are many other ways to approach this subject.\r\n\r\nMy promise on this web site and throughout my blogs was always to try and keep things simple.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">5. MY CURRENT LIVE TRADES:</span></b>\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">FLASH TRADES:</span></b>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>FT30</strong>\r\n<strong>USD/CAD</strong>\r\n<strong>Long</strong>\r\n<strong>Cost Average: 1.0985</strong>\r\n<strong>Stop Loss: 1.0840</strong>\r\n<strong>Limit / Target: 1.1520</strong>\r\n<strong>My Position Size: 60%</strong>\r\n<strong>Closing Weekly Position: 1.0977</strong>\r\n<strong><span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">My present Profit/Loss position:  - 8pips</span></strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"></p>\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">RADAR TRADES:</span></b>\r\n\r\nNo live RADAR TRADES at the present time.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">FUNDAMENTAL TRADES:</span></b>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>FUN05</strong>\r\n<strong>GBP/CAD</strong>\r\n<strong>Long</strong>\r\n<strong>Entry Price / Cost Average: 1.8380</strong>\r\n<strong>Stop Loss: 1.7940</strong>\r\n<strong>Limit / Target: 2.017</strong>\r\n<strong>Position Size: 5%</strong>\r\n<strong>Closing Weekly Position: 1.8385</strong>\r\n<strong>My Present Profit / Loss position:  + 5pips</strong>\r\n<strong>(This trade will be hedged from a 100 pip loss should the situation arise)</strong></p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">6. TRADES THAT ARE ON MY RADAR:</span></b>\r\n\r\nI have the following two RADAR trades that are already in position with my brokers.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"> <strong>USD/CHF\r\nLong\r\nEntry Level: 0.9040\r\nStop Loss: 0.8990\r\nLimit / Target: 0.9250</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong> NZD/USD\r\nShort\r\nEntry Level: 0.8430\r\nStop Loss 0.8460\r\nLimit /Target 0.8000</strong><strong> </strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\" align=\"center\">The following RADAR trades are not yet placed with brokers. It is my intention to do this either at the market open (Sunday evening) or Monday morning after the European session. I will advise when they are placed via Twitter.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong>EUR/GBP</strong>\r\n<strong>Short</strong>\r\n<strong>Entry Level: 0.8224</strong>\r\n<strong>Stop Loss 0.8265</strong>\r\n<strong>Limit /Target 0.8000 </strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong>AUD/USD</strong>\r\n<strong>Short</strong>\r\n<strong>Entry Level: 0.9075</strong>\r\n<strong>Stop Loss: 0.9125</strong>\r\n<strong>Limit / Target: 0.8500</strong></p>\r\nThe following are FUNDAMENTAL trades are not yet placed with my brokers. I will do this either at the market open on Sunday evening or Monday morning after the European session. I will Tweet when they have been placed. These are of a longer-term nature. I have added in the ATR data to show the depth of the stop loss. Please bear in mind these trades are MICRO LOTS to start with and only upon taking shape with momentum in my direction will I add further lots to increase my position size. These currency pairs are wild and volatile. If you cannot cope with extreme volatility and moves that do not make sense at times I suggest that you ignore these trades. All of these trades will be hedged from a 100 pip loss making position should that situation arise.\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong>EUR/CAD</strong>\r\n<strong>Long</strong>\r\n<strong>Entry Level: 1.4960</strong>\r\n<strong>Stop Loss 1.4400 (ATR 509)</strong>\r\n<strong>Limit /Target 1.5300 (52 week high)</strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong>EUR/AUD</strong>\r\n<strong>Long</strong>\r\n<strong>Entry Level: 1.5240</strong>\r\n<strong>Stop Loss 1.4500 (ATR 725)</strong>\r\n<strong>Limit /Target 1.7000 (52 week high = 1.5800)</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong> EUR/NZD</strong>\r\n<strong>Long</strong>\r\n<strong>Entry Level: 1.6800</strong>\r\n<strong>Stop Loss 1.6000 (ATR 800)</strong>\r\n<strong>Limit /Target 1.9030</strong>\r\n<strong>(I show the EUR/NZD Monthly chart below that shows how big a move could be on if we break above 1.6800. It will be stiff trend line resistance, but if we breakthrough…happy days if you are a long!)</strong></p>\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/EURNZD-MONTHLY-15.02.2014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-3233\" alt=\"EURNZD MONTHLY 15.02.2014\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/EURNZD-MONTHLY-15.02.2014-1024x522.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"522\" /></a></span></b>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">7. LOOKING FORWARD…THE KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS:</span></b>\r\n\r\n<b>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3692.</b>  About a 60 pip move to the upside during the week but even with a lot of bullishness around - the upside has been capped at 1.3715 (a 127.6% Fibonacci extension).  However, I do not think that the bears get back in full control unless we break through support at 1.3610.\r\nThe EUR/USD Daily chart below shows the key trading points.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/EURUSD-DAILY-15.02.14.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-3231\" alt=\"EURUSD DAILY 15.02.14\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/EURUSD-DAILY-15.02.14-1024x522.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"522\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<b>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.6746.  </b>The cable is in breakout territory; the EUR moved upwards about 50 pips and the GBP/USD move higher in the same time period was almost three times greater. The next big resistance lies at 1.6780, which by coincidence with the EUR/USD is also a 127.6% Fibonacci extension. In my blog post outlining my thoughts for 2014, I talked about the “dis-connect” across the various markets. I suggested that I thought that the GBP would start to act more independently of the EUR. Here is the first case example. I can see cable rising beyond 1.6780 towards 1.7000 at a time when I think upwards moves in the EUR will be capped. Watch the EUR/GBP price action, I think 0.8000 cents is on. Support for the GBP/USD is at 1.6650.\r\n\r\n<b>AUD/USD: Closing Price 0.9031</b>.  I think that the AUD/USD is a great short somewhere between 0.9100 and 0.9200. I think that you can start building positions just below 0.9100. Unless it strides higher to short it I am not interested. I am looking forward to reading the RBA monetary policy meeting minutes this week to see what clues if any as to help with my trade set-up. Fundamentally, I see this pair around 0.8000 to 0.8500. For now I think we are range bound 0.9000 to 0.9100.\r\n\r\n<b>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8365</b>.  The most annoying pair in the forex market as far as I am concerned. Like the AUD/USD I think that we are range bound, stuck between 0.8300 and 0.8400.\r\n\r\n<b>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.0977.</b>  I have been all over this pair like a rash in the past week. I firmly believe that with a bit of USD strength coming through the markets this pair will fly through 1.1250 heading towards 1.1520. For now though we are having to suffer spikes and pullbacks. The range is 1.0940 to 1.1025.\r\n\r\nThe 12 hour USD/CAD chart below shows the key levels to watch out for.\r\n\r\n<b> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/USDCAD-12-HOUR-15.02.2014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-3232\" alt=\"USDCAD 12 HOUR 15.02.2014\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/USDCAD-12-HOUR-15.02.2014-1024x522.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"522\" /></a></b>\r\n\r\n<b>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.8923</b>.  I was really excited about trading this pair recently. I was so excited I was relieved to exit my trade on a spike to resistance at 0.9040. Since that day we have fallen. I think a fall back to 0.8850 is a gift to pick and enter long, but I just think that we will continue in this very tight range that we are in until the EUR/USD break out in one direction or the other. The range for now that I am looking at is 0.8900 to 0.8950.<b> </b>\r\n\r\n<b>USD/JPY: Closing Price 101.78. </b> This pair is under real pressure to fall through support at 101.50. It has been at the precipice more than once so if it does not fall through the next time it tests support maybe we are destined to see a quite strong bounce towards 105.00 once again. Who knows? I have found the USD/JPY difficult to follow of late. One thing that I do know however is that equities are at multi year highs and the USD/JPY is falling. There is something wrong with this picture. The critical support at 101.50 must hold otherwise it will be sub 100.00 not too far after. Resistance is good at 102.60.\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b>\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">8. MAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:</span></b>\r\n\r\nSUNDAY: NZD – Retail Sales.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: AUD – Monetary Policy Minutes.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: GBP - CPi.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: GBP – Unemployment Rates.\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – FOMC meeting Minutes.\r\nWEDNESDAY: CNY – Manufacturing PMi\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: EUR – German and French PMI.\r\nTHURSDAY: USD – Janet Yellen testifies.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: GBP – Retail Sales.\r\nFRIDAY: CAD – Core CPi &amp; Core Retail Sales.\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b>\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">9. FINAL THOUGHTS:</span></b>\r\n\r\n<b>THE PREMIUM SERVICE – (Twitter Feed)</b>\r\n\r\nFirstly most of you do not avail of this facility, it is free and quite a lot goes on. To date over 300 tweets have been made. Many of them a multiples surrounding maybe just one piece of data but nevertheless, there is a lot going on.\r\n\r\nI have decided to place a structure around the tweets that are made with immediate effect, they are:\r\n\r\nEveryday before the North American equity markets open. There will be a tweet called “FIRST THOUGHTS”.\r\n\r\nMid morning in the U.S. session there will be a “MARKET UPDATE”\r\n\r\nIn the lunch period / afternoon session there will be a “FINAL THOUGHTS” tweet.\r\n\r\n24 x 7 there will be “TRADE UPDATES” and “TRADE SET-UPS” relating to FLASH, RADAR and FUNDAMENTAL trades.\r\n\r\nFinally, “NEWS FLASH” tweets, when applicable.\r\n\r\nI hope that this format will be well received.\r\n\r\nFor those of you that still happy with just the weekly trade set-ups, there is absolutely no problem from my side. I know time differences play a part, but the “Twitter Feed” can offer an additional edge…..think about it.\r\n\r\nBack to the markets, I expected consolidation last week. I suppose to some extent there was but there was a lot of volatility. This week I am expecting some movement as I believe that we are once again very close to the crossroads were sentiment changes.\r\n\r\nAs you know, the markets move on FEAR and GREED and I think FEAR is entering. If I am correct, that means volatility; be prepared\r\n\r\nWith that in mind, always remember that there is a market everyday. You do not need to trade everyday to make your financial goals.\r\n\r\nGood luck and trade within your TRADE PLAN guidelines and most importantly use sound MONEY MANAGEMENT SKILLS to control your risk.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nSaturday February 15th 2014\r\n\r\nEMAIL / FOLLOW ME AT:\r\npremiumservice@weeklyfxdrivethru.com\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\nTwitter: @ThePremService\r\n<span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">Google+/scottpickering\r\n</span><span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">StockTwits; thepipaccumulator</span>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','IT’S STILL ALL ABOUT FEAR AND GREED…EVEN MORE SO NOW','','publish','open','closed','','still-fear-greedeven-now','','','2014-02-15 15:59:34','2014-02-15 20:59:34','',0,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?post_type=member_posts&#038;p=3246',0,'member_posts','',0),(3247,1,'2014-02-15 15:59:34','2014-02-15 20:59:34','<p style=\"text-align: left;\" align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">1. INTRODUCTION:</span></b></p>\r\nFrom a personal perspective, that was a great week of forex trading, with more than +500 pips profit during the week.\r\n\r\nI am however, a little concerned that some of the currency moves seem to be a little extreme. In particular last Wednesday was extreme. BOE Governor Carney presenting the quarterly BOE Inflation Report, basically kept his forward guidance in place and the GBP rallied like crazy across the board. Wednesday evening the Australian Unemployment data was poor and the AUD weakened. On Wednesday alone the moves in the GBP/AUD and GBP/NZD were terrific. The GBP/AUD nearly +500 pips on the day. I know the GBP/AUD is an exotic commodity cross-rate and moves will be volatile. At the same time the EUR/AUD moved up over +180 pips on the back of AUD Unemployment Data.\r\n\r\nThese moves, plus a few more factors are telling me that the markets are twitchy, and maybe over reacting.  I write this in the full knowledge that the equity markets are grinding higher, and in the full knowledge that the S&amp;P and Nasdaq are at 14 year highs. I will go deeper into my thoughts on this subject later in the blog.\r\n\r\nOne piece of news that really pissed me off was the ECB talking about “Negative Deposit Rates”.\r\n\r\nAt the last ECB Press Conference - ECB President Mario Draghi basically talked about Eurozone economic improvements and how things were starting to come together, cautious optimism was given as guidance. No new initiatives were discussed because of the improvements seen.\r\n\r\nThen within 7 days….it’s confirmed that the ECB had in fact discussed Negative Deposit Rates for member state banks depositing money with the ECB. This is mega news, market moving and important to investors to have knowledge of when making business decisions.\r\n\r\nIt just shows you that it is all a game. I had written many times about Draghi’s body language at the Press Conferences being poor and that he is hiding something. He is very uncomfortable at times. I have said that his testicles must be wired to a switch at the Bundesbank in Frankfurt and Angela Merkel’s office in Berlin, maybe I am not so far off the truth. He is very well managed, I have no doubt of this fact at all.\r\n\r\nAt times, I doubt the economic data validity released from China. The Eurozone is catching China up. We know that most of the Eurozone politicians and bureaucrats will save their own backs and be very economical with the truth at times regarding Eurozone matters.\r\n\r\nOn the basis that “Negative Deposit Rates” have in the past been dismissed as nonsense and were said to be no way near the discussion table and the fact that Draghi had the opportunity to control a discussion about the subject and didn’t, is in my opinion very poor leadership on his part. This is 100% why I think he is controlled, maybe not by gadgets wiring to his testicles, but controlled he is.\r\n\r\nOther news was that Janet Yellen completed her first “grilling” on the hill. I thought she gained more and more confidence as the testimony went on and to be frank, the U.S. politicians wouldn’t know how to ask a question if their lives depended upon it. They still haven’t learnt to ask a concise question. They use up most of their allotted time with waffle and assorted bulls**t. Nevertheless, I thought she came out on top and any uncertainty that the markets had on tapering were well and truly put to bed in my opinion.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">2. TRADING SUMMARY:</span></b>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">RADAR, FLASH and FUNDAMENTAL TRADES</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">FEBRUARY 2014 and YEAR to date:</span></b></p>\r\nIt was a great start to the week and with primary market moving data towards the end of the week I traded less and basically observed. So on a pure volume of trades basis - it was quiet..\r\n\r\nBelow I show the up to date performances for my various trading styles. Full excel spreadsheets are in the subscriber area of the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">RADAR TRADES:</span></b><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">PROFITS FROM SINGLE LOT COMPLETED RADAR TRADES:</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x MICRO-LOT:\r\n10 trades at $0.10 cents each = $1.00 risk for $13.90 profit.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">1 x MINI-LOT:\r\n</span><span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">10 trades at $1.00 each = $10.00 risk for $139.00 profit.</span></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x STANDARD LOT:\r\n10 trades at $10.00 each = $100.00 risk for $1,390.00 profit.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">FLASH TRADES:</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">PROFITS FROM SINGLE LOT COMPLETED FLASH TRADES:</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x MICRO-LOT:\r\n17 trades at $0.10 cents each = $1.70 cents risk for $47.00 profit.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x MINI-LOT:\r\n17 trades at $1.00 each = $17.00 risk for $470.00 profit.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x STANDARD LOT:\r\n17 trades at $10.00 each = $170.00 risk for $4,700.00 profit.<b style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">FUNDAMENTAL TRADES:</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">PROFITS FROM SINGLE LOT COMPLETED FUNDAMENTAL TRADES:</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x MICRO-LOT:\r\n4 trades at $0.10 cents each = $0.40 cents risk for $49.40 loss.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x MINI-LOT:\r\n4 trades at $1.00 each = $4.00 risk for $494.00 loss.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x STANDARD LOT:\r\n4 trades at $10.00 each = $40.00 risk for $4,940.00 loss</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">COMBINED FLASH, RADAR AND FUNDAMENTAL TRADES PROFIT PERFORMANCE</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">JANUARY 2014…SO FAR:</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">TRADING MICRO-LOTS:\r\n31 trades at $0.10 cents each = $3.10 risk for $11.50 profit.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">TRADING MINI-LOTS:\r\n31 trades at $1.00 each = $31.00 risk for $115.00 profit.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">TRADING STANDARD LOTS:\r\n31 trades at $10.00 each = $310.00 risk for $1,150.00 profit.</p>\r\nThe above examples are for illustration purposes only:\r\n\r\nThe profitability examples detailed above are based solely upon single lot trading, regardless of lot type. If multiple lot sizes are traded the profitability margins will be different than those shown.\r\n\r\nJust to provide more information so you understand where I am coming from with the risk / reward statements above. All of my trades are of different sizes and different size lot types. The above does not reflect the actual trading performance. I like to add to trades, profits are taken as the trade progresses and my overall cost average moves several times. All of my trades are of different lot styles. I trade a mixture of micro lots, mini lots and standard lots across my brokers.\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">3. THE FUNDAMENTAL TRADERS OVERVIEW:</span></b><b> </b>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>IT’S STILL ALL ABOUT FEAR AND GREED…EVEN MORE SO NOW:</b><b> </b></p>\r\nI think that the markets are now very overbought and market participants are now getting twitchy. Sentiment  is starting to change. Last year, for the equities markets it was all about “Buy the Dip”, a simple trading approach, because the FED was behind the markets with easing (Quantitative Easing), through it’s bond buying programme.\r\n\r\nGREED has been in pole position for quite sometime because the FED was market supportive. The “Buy on the Dip” mentality is starting to be less talked about even though equities grind higher and the S&amp;P and Nasdaq closed last week at 14 year highs. FED monetary policy has changed and the effects of\r\n\r\ntapering is a whole new ball game. The smart guys are selling into these rallies in my opinion.\r\n\r\nWe saw a 7% pullback over a week ago, and we were led to believe this was a buying opportunity, maybe it was. I just do not buy it. I have said it before and I say it again….the dis-connect / correlations are still off…these are clues not to be ignored. The fact we are at record highs just tells me that it has to stop sooner rather than later. It is how the markets react to a change in sentiment that very important. A GREED based market can switch to a market dictated by FEAR very quickly.\r\n\r\nEveryday I go through the same daily routines with my chart analysis. The following factors are playing heavy in my decision making process. I believe the moves ahead will be very, very big. I do not need to pick a top, I just want a good chunk of the available $$$ in the middle of oncoming trades. I definitely do not want to pick the market bottom either. That can be very costly and a dangerous sport: -<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">\r\n</span></b>\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>Gold is appreciating in value and has moved above the psychological $1,300 barrier. However, in my opinion it doesn’t get bullish in my eyes until it breaks above about $1,380. We have DEFLATION. So the recent run of buying Gold is fear? A flight to safety?</li>\r\n	<li>The Nikkei is selling off one day then bouncing back the next. It has bounced back off a lower trend line support.</li>\r\n	<li>Oil is struggling with $100.00.</li>\r\n	<li>Copper has gone really quiet.</li>\r\n	<li>The JPY pairs are not moving in sync anymore with equities. The best example is yesterday’s close (Friday). The S&amp;P and Nasdaq are at 14 year highs yet the USD/JPY has been hovering around a critical support level of 101.50 for the past 24-36 hours. It should be back at 110.00 given the circumstances.</li>\r\n	<li>The AUD/USD and NZD/USD whilst holding up really well are NOT breaking out. In fact, I am ready to short both of them because in my opinion I have confidence in the fact that the equities markets are going to roll over.</li>\r\n	<li>S&amp;P at 1800 becomes a critical support level. Below 1725 it is game on.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nMy feelings are well known. I am a USD bull and have been for about the past 5/6 months. The market dis-connect has been in play for some time. Inter-market correlations are bo****ksed. My lead currency indicators have been giving clues (AUD/USD &amp; USD/CAD) for months. The commodity currencies lead the way.\r\n\r\nThis is why I am so anxious to get long on the EUR/AUD, EUR/NZD, EUR/CAD, GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD and GBP/CAD. I chickened out on my original set of FUNDAMENTAL trades. I allowed myself to be influenced by other market participants. I am actively looking for the correct levels to enter the six currency trade pairs to the long side.\r\n\r\nWhen the sell-off starts the unwinding effect of these pairs will be incredibly strong.\r\n\r\nThis is when FEAR takes over in the mindset of traders and it will only intensify as the momentum gathers pace.\r\n\r\nIt just takes one negative spark of the right intensity to set this i.e: the sell off in motion. It may come from the emerging markets but my favourite would be either the Eurozone or China.\r\n\r\nThe snap back could happen at anytime.\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">4. TRADER TOPICS:</span></b>\r\n\r\nFollowing the introduction of FUNDAMENTAL trades, HEDGING came into play. Below, I provide my approach plus some general supporting information on HEDGING.<b> </b>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">HEDGING (MY APPROACH):</span></b></p>\r\nThe reasons for writing about HEDGING this week is because several of you wrote to me asking me questions on how and why I HEDGE on my FUNDAMENTAL trades?\r\n\r\nI only ever use this approach on long term position style (FUNDAMENTAL) trades. For me it is just something that I introduce on a losing pip value related to my risk tolerance for a trade.\r\n\r\nI hope that the example below is easy to follow: -\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<p align=\"center\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>TRADE 1:</strong></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">EUR/AUD\r\nLONG\r\nENTRY: 1.5000\r\nPOSITION SIZE: 5 x MICRO LOTS\r\nMONTHLY ATR: 720\r\nSTOP LOSS: 1.4250</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">TRADE RISK IN TOTAL = $375.00\r\nHEDGED LOSS MAXIMUM 200 pips = $100.00</p>\r\nTherefore in this instance I would place an order with my broker at the same time of the initial trade to sell the EUR/AUD as follows: -\r\n<p align=\"center\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>HEDGED TRADE:</strong></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">EUR/AUD\r\nSHORT\r\nENTRY: 1.4800\r\n<span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">POSITION SIZE: 5 x MICRO LOTS\r\n</span><span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">STOP LOSS: 1.5000</span></p>\r\nBy doing this I am allowing “wiggle room” of 200 pips for the pair when the initial trade is activated to move in the direction that I want it to. If the pair drops more than 200 pips my HEDGE is triggered so my trade is always limited to a loss of 200 pips and a financial loss of $100.00.\r\n\r\nYou must also consider with exotic cross-rate currencies the overnight swap rates mount up very quickly and this can become quite expensive. This was the reason I closed my 6 trades last week that were hedged. My losses were limited but the overnight costs were mounting on 12 trades.\r\n\r\nThis is my approach, as I promised I would detail my way of approaching hedging.\r\n\r\nBelow I have supplied you with HEDGING definitions and styles that I was taught as a  “Newbie” trader.\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">USING A HEDGING STRATEGY IN FOREX:</span></b></p>\r\nBasically hedging is a way to protect you as a Forex trader against a big loss. The best way to view hedging is to consider it insurance on your trade. Basically, I view it as a way to reduce the amount of the loss that you would have incurred if something totally unexpected happened.\r\n\r\nSome brokers will allow you to place trades that are direct hedges. This means that you are allowed to place a trade that has you both buying and selling the same currency pair at the same time if you want to do that. While the net profit is zero when both trades are open, you can make money without additional risk if you time the market right.\r\n\r\n<b>SIMPLE FOREX HEDGING:</b>\r\n\r\nThe simple hedge allows you to trade in both directions with the same currency pair without having to close the initial trade. It can of course be argued that it makes sense to close the initial trade for a loss (if it was a losing trade) and enter a new trade at a better price, still keeping the hedging trade active. This is up to you as a trader. You could definitely close the original loss making trade and enter again in your original direction, but the benefits of the hedge is that you can keep your trade on the market and make money on the second trade that makes a profit as the market moves against your initial trade. When you suspect that the market is going to reverse and your initial trade will be heading for a positive position, you can set a stop on the hedging trade, or you could of course just close it.\r\n\r\n<b>COMPLEX HEDGING:</b>\r\n\r\nSome brokers will not allow you to hedge directly in the same trading account with the same currency pair, so an alternative method could be adopted.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">As you know there are currency pairs that have inverted relationships so if you go long or short on one you can go in the opposite direction with the other pair. Whilst this isn’t a perfect science it is in effect HEDGING.\r\n\r\nEUR/USD and USD/CHF\r\nEUR/GBP and GBP/CHF</p>\r\nThe above pairs tend to operate in an inverted manner, and this could be described as hedging.\r\n\r\n<b>REASONS TO HEDGE:</b>\r\n\r\nThe main reason that anyone trading any security or forex pairs wants to use hedging is to limit risk.\r\n\r\nHEDGING can be a bigger part of your trading plan if done carefully. Only experienced traders that understand the market swings and timings should see HEDGING. It is NOT something that without adequate trading experience should be played with, as, it can be costly.\r\n\r\n<b>THE HEDGING STRATEGY:</b>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">With my example at the beginning of this section you can see that the whole basis of my hedge was firmly positioned around risk.\r\n\r\nThe are four parts to the strategy that MUST be adhered to:</p>\r\n\r\n<ol style=\"text-align: left;\">\r\n	<li>ANALYZE YOUR RISK:\r\nAs any normal trade – assess your risk before you enter.</li>\r\n	<li>DETERMINE YOUR RISK TOLERANCE:\r\nAre you hedging the full or partial amount of the trade? This is based upon your own risk tolerances and your TRADING PLAN.</li>\r\n	<li>DETERMINE YOUR FOREX HEDGING STRATEGY:\r\nWrite it out to check, prices, levels and entry and exit rules.</li>\r\n	<li>IMPLEMENT AND MONITOR YOUR STRATEGY:\r\nCheck your figures and entries and exits should the HEDGED TRADE trigger.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<b>SUMMARY:</b>\r\n\r\nThere are many complicated HEDGING STRATEGIES that I have come across in the past seven years.\r\n\r\nMy approach is simple (I think) and easy to use but there are many other ways to approach this subject.\r\n\r\nMy promise on this web site and throughout my blogs was always to try and keep things simple.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">5. MY CURRENT LIVE TRADES:</span></b>\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">FLASH TRADES:</span></b>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>FT30</strong>\r\n<strong>USD/CAD</strong>\r\n<strong>Long</strong>\r\n<strong>Cost Average: 1.0985</strong>\r\n<strong>Stop Loss: 1.0840</strong>\r\n<strong>Limit / Target: 1.1520</strong>\r\n<strong>My Position Size: 60%</strong>\r\n<strong>Closing Weekly Position: 1.0977</strong>\r\n<strong><span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">My present Profit/Loss position:  - 8pips</span></strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"></p>\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">RADAR TRADES:</span></b>\r\n\r\nNo live RADAR TRADES at the present time.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">FUNDAMENTAL TRADES:</span></b>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>FUN05</strong>\r\n<strong>GBP/CAD</strong>\r\n<strong>Long</strong>\r\n<strong>Entry Price / Cost Average: 1.8380</strong>\r\n<strong>Stop Loss: 1.7940</strong>\r\n<strong>Limit / Target: 2.017</strong>\r\n<strong>Position Size: 5%</strong>\r\n<strong>Closing Weekly Position: 1.8385</strong>\r\n<strong>My Present Profit / Loss position:  + 5pips</strong>\r\n<strong>(This trade will be hedged from a 100 pip loss should the situation arise)</strong></p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">6. TRADES THAT ARE ON MY RADAR:</span></b>\r\n\r\nI have the following two RADAR trades that are already in position with my brokers.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"> <strong>USD/CHF\r\nLong\r\nEntry Level: 0.9040\r\nStop Loss: 0.8990\r\nLimit / Target: 0.9250</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong> NZD/USD\r\nShort\r\nEntry Level: 0.8430\r\nStop Loss 0.8460\r\nLimit /Target 0.8000</strong><strong> </strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\" align=\"center\">The following RADAR trades are not yet placed with brokers. It is my intention to do this either at the market open (Sunday evening) or Monday morning after the European session. I will advise when they are placed via Twitter.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong>EUR/GBP</strong>\r\n<strong>Short</strong>\r\n<strong>Entry Level: 0.8224</strong>\r\n<strong>Stop Loss 0.8265</strong>\r\n<strong>Limit /Target 0.8000 </strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong>AUD/USD</strong>\r\n<strong>Short</strong>\r\n<strong>Entry Level: 0.9075</strong>\r\n<strong>Stop Loss: 0.9125</strong>\r\n<strong>Limit / Target: 0.8500</strong></p>\r\nThe following are FUNDAMENTAL trades are not yet placed with my brokers. I will do this either at the market open on Sunday evening or Monday morning after the European session. I will Tweet when they have been placed. These are of a longer-term nature. I have added in the ATR data to show the depth of the stop loss. Please bear in mind these trades are MICRO LOTS to start with and only upon taking shape with momentum in my direction will I add further lots to increase my position size. These currency pairs are wild and volatile. If you cannot cope with extreme volatility and moves that do not make sense at times I suggest that you ignore these trades. All of these trades will be hedged from a 100 pip loss making position should that situation arise.\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong>EUR/CAD</strong>\r\n<strong>Long</strong>\r\n<strong>Entry Level: 1.4960</strong>\r\n<strong>Stop Loss 1.4400 (ATR 509)</strong>\r\n<strong>Limit /Target 1.5300 (52 week high)</strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong>EUR/AUD</strong>\r\n<strong>Long</strong>\r\n<strong>Entry Level: 1.5240</strong>\r\n<strong>Stop Loss 1.4500 (ATR 725)</strong>\r\n<strong>Limit /Target 1.7000 (52 week high = 1.5800)</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong> EUR/NZD</strong>\r\n<strong>Long</strong>\r\n<strong>Entry Level: 1.6800</strong>\r\n<strong>Stop Loss 1.6000 (ATR 800)</strong>\r\n<strong>Limit /Target 1.9030</strong>\r\n<strong>(I show the EUR/NZD Monthly chart below that shows how big a move could be on if we break above 1.6800. It will be stiff trend line resistance, but if we breakthrough…happy days if you are a long!)</strong></p>\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/EURNZD-MONTHLY-15.02.2014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-3233\" alt=\"EURNZD MONTHLY 15.02.2014\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/EURNZD-MONTHLY-15.02.2014-1024x522.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"522\" /></a></span></b>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">7. LOOKING FORWARD…THE KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS:</span></b>\r\n\r\n<b>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3692.</b>  About a 60 pip move to the upside during the week but even with a lot of bullishness around - the upside has been capped at 1.3715 (a 127.6% Fibonacci extension).  However, I do not think that the bears get back in full control unless we break through support at 1.3610.\r\nThe EUR/USD Daily chart below shows the key trading points.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/EURUSD-DAILY-15.02.14.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-3231\" alt=\"EURUSD DAILY 15.02.14\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/EURUSD-DAILY-15.02.14-1024x522.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"522\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<b>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.6746.  </b>The cable is in breakout territory; the EUR moved upwards about 50 pips and the GBP/USD move higher in the same time period was almost three times greater. The next big resistance lies at 1.6780, which by coincidence with the EUR/USD is also a 127.6% Fibonacci extension. In my blog post outlining my thoughts for 2014, I talked about the “dis-connect” across the various markets. I suggested that I thought that the GBP would start to act more independently of the EUR. Here is the first case example. I can see cable rising beyond 1.6780 towards 1.7000 at a time when I think upwards moves in the EUR will be capped. Watch the EUR/GBP price action, I think 0.8000 cents is on. Support for the GBP/USD is at 1.6650.\r\n\r\n<b>AUD/USD: Closing Price 0.9031</b>.  I think that the AUD/USD is a great short somewhere between 0.9100 and 0.9200. I think that you can start building positions just below 0.9100. Unless it strides higher to short it I am not interested. I am looking forward to reading the RBA monetary policy meeting minutes this week to see what clues if any as to help with my trade set-up. Fundamentally, I see this pair around 0.8000 to 0.8500. For now I think we are range bound 0.9000 to 0.9100.\r\n\r\n<b>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8365</b>.  The most annoying pair in the forex market as far as I am concerned. Like the AUD/USD I think that we are range bound, stuck between 0.8300 and 0.8400.\r\n\r\n<b>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.0977.</b>  I have been all over this pair like a rash in the past week. I firmly believe that with a bit of USD strength coming through the markets this pair will fly through 1.1250 heading towards 1.1520. For now though we are having to suffer spikes and pullbacks. The range is 1.0940 to 1.1025.\r\n\r\nThe 12 hour USD/CAD chart below shows the key levels to watch out for.\r\n\r\n<b> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/USDCAD-12-HOUR-15.02.2014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-3232\" alt=\"USDCAD 12 HOUR 15.02.2014\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/USDCAD-12-HOUR-15.02.2014-1024x522.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"522\" /></a></b>\r\n\r\n<b>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.8923</b>.  I was really excited about trading this pair recently. I was so excited I was relieved to exit my trade on a spike to resistance at 0.9040. Since that day we have fallen. I think a fall back to 0.8850 is a gift to pick and enter long, but I just think that we will continue in this very tight range that we are in until the EUR/USD break out in one direction or the other. The range for now that I am looking at is 0.8900 to 0.8950.<b> </b>\r\n\r\n<b>USD/JPY: Closing Price 101.78. </b> This pair is under real pressure to fall through support at 101.50. It has been at the precipice more than once so if it does not fall through the next time it tests support maybe we are destined to see a quite strong bounce towards 105.00 once again. Who knows? I have found the USD/JPY difficult to follow of late. One thing that I do know however is that equities are at multi year highs and the USD/JPY is falling. There is something wrong with this picture. The critical support at 101.50 must hold otherwise it will be sub 100.00 not too far after. Resistance is good at 102.60.\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b>\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">8. MAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:</span></b>\r\n\r\nSUNDAY: NZD – Retail Sales.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: AUD – Monetary Policy Minutes.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: GBP - CPi.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: GBP – Unemployment Rates.\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – FOMC meeting Minutes.\r\nWEDNESDAY: CNY – Manufacturing PMi\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: EUR – German and French PMI.\r\nTHURSDAY: USD – Janet Yellen testifies.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: GBP – Retail Sales.\r\nFRIDAY: CAD – Core CPi &amp; Core Retail Sales.\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b>\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">9. FINAL THOUGHTS:</span></b>\r\n\r\n<b>THE PREMIUM SERVICE – (Twitter Feed)</b>\r\n\r\nFirstly most of you do not avail of this facility, it is free and quite a lot goes on. To date over 300 tweets have been made. Many of them a multiples surrounding maybe just one piece of data but nevertheless, there is a lot going on.\r\n\r\nI have decided to place a structure around the tweets that are made with immediate effect, they are:\r\n\r\nEveryday before the North American equity markets open. There will be a tweet called “FIRST THOUGHTS”.\r\n\r\nMid morning in the U.S. session there will be a “MARKET UPDATE”\r\n\r\nIn the lunch period / afternoon session there will be a “FINAL THOUGHTS” tweet.\r\n\r\n24 x 7 there will be “TRADE UPDATES” and “TRADE SET-UPS” relating to FLASH, RADAR and FUNDAMENTAL trades.\r\n\r\nFinally, “NEWS FLASH” tweets, when applicable.\r\n\r\nI hope that this format will be well received.\r\n\r\nFor those of you that still happy with just the weekly trade set-ups, there is absolutely no problem from my side. I know time differences play a part, but the “Twitter Feed” can offer an additional edge…..think about it.\r\n\r\nBack to the markets, I expected consolidation last week. I suppose to some extent there was but there was a lot of volatility. This week I am expecting some movement as I believe that we are once again very close to the crossroads were sentiment changes.\r\n\r\nAs you know, the markets move on FEAR and GREED and I think FEAR is entering. If I am correct, that means volatility; be prepared\r\n\r\nWith that in mind, always remember that there is a market everyday. You do not need to trade everyday to make your financial goals.\r\n\r\nGood luck and trade within your TRADE PLAN guidelines and most importantly use sound MONEY MANAGEMENT SKILLS to control your risk.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nSaturday February 15th 2014\r\n\r\nEMAIL / FOLLOW ME AT:\r\npremiumservice@weeklyfxdrivethru.com\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\nTwitter: @ThePremService\r\n<span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">Google+/scottpickering\r\n</span><span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">StockTwits; thepipaccumulator</span>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','IT’S STILL ALL ABOUT FEAR AND GREED…EVEN MORE SO NOW','','inherit','open','closed','','3246-revision-v1','','','2014-02-15 15:59:34','2014-02-15 20:59:34','',3246,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/3246-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(3251,1,'2014-02-15 16:14:20','2014-02-15 21:14:20','<section class=\"pdf-links\">\r\n<div class=\"one-third first\"></div>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/TRADING-WITH-ATRs.pdf\">TRADING WITH ATR\'s</a>\r\n<div class=\"one-third\"></div>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/HEDGING.pdf\">HEDGING</a>\r\n<div class=\"one-third\"></div>\r\n</section>\r\n<div class=\"one-half first\">\r\n\r\nThese resources are in PDF format that will allow for easy printing\r\n\r\n</div>','Trading Essentials','','inherit','open','closed','','2538-revision-v1','','','2014-02-15 16:14:20','2014-02-15 21:14:20','',2538,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/2538-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(3267,1,'2014-02-22 10:11:13','2014-02-22 15:11:13','<p style=\"text-align: left;\" align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">1. INTRODUCTION:</span></b></p>\r\nDespite the fact I think that in my opinion the Forex market is currently a bit of a chop fest and that it seems to just want to squeeze extremes and exert as much pain as possible to traders, I had from a personal viewpoint my best trading week this year. This week over +500 pips profit again. My absolute $$$ return has me well ahead of my trading plan objective. To place the week in context, most of the pips were generated from related to CAD related trades in one day.\r\n\r\nI do not want to promote “doom and gloom” but I see a period of chop fest intensifying as we move forward and in these situations sometimes your best trade is NOT to trade. I will debate the current market conditions later in this blog.\r\n\r\nThe big news items during the past week regarding the PMi’s in China and Europe plus the FOMC meeting minutes didn’t really move the major pairs out of their trading channels and largely they remained range bound. The big number in the market to trigger moves across the board appears to be the EUR/USD support at 1.3680. If this gives way, and on the day it breaks, we end the day below this level, I believe this will be the catalyst for some bold moves across many currency pairs.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">2. TRADING SUMMARY:</span></b>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">RADAR, FLASH and FUNDAMENTAL TRADES</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">FEBRUARY 2014 and YEAR to date:</span></b></p>\r\nBelow I show the up to date performances for my various trading styles. Full excel spreadsheets area also in the subscriber area of the PREMIUM SERVICE.<b style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b>\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">RADAR TRADES – FEBRUARY 2014:</span></b>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/RADAR-1-22.02.2014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-3262\" alt=\"RADAR 1 22.02.2014\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/RADAR-1-22.02.2014.png\" width=\"543\" height=\"462\" /></a></span></b><b></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/RADAR-2-22.02.2014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-3263\" alt=\"RADAR 2 22.02.2014\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/RADAR-2-22.02.2014.png\" width=\"543\" height=\"477\" /></a></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">PROFITS FROM SINGLE LOT COMPLETED RADAR TRADES:</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x MICRO-LOT:\r\n11 trades at $0.10 cents each = $1.10 risk for $14.80 profit.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x MINI-LOT:\r\n11 trades at $1.00 each = $11.00 risk for $148.00 profit.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x STANDARD LOT:\r\n11 trades at $10.00 each = $110.00 risk for $1,480.00 profit.</p>\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">FLASH TRADES – FEBRUARY 2014:</span></b>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/FLASH-1-22.02.2014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-3264\" alt=\"FLASH 1 22.02.2014\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/FLASH-1-22.02.2014.png\" width=\"477\" height=\"481\" /></a></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/FLASH-2-22.02.2014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-3265\" alt=\"FLASH 2 22.02.2014\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/FLASH-2-22.02.2014.png\" width=\"497\" height=\"488\" /></a></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">PROFITS FROM SINGLE LOT COMPLETED FLASH TRADES:</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x MICRO-LOT:\r\n24 trades at $0.10 cents each = $2.40 cents risk for $59.90 profit.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x MINI-LOT:\r\n24 trades at $1.00 each = $24.00 risk for $599.00 profit.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x STANDARD LOT:\r\n24 trades at $10.00 each = $240.00 risk for $5,990.00 profit.</p>\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">FUNDAMENTAL TRADES – FEBRUARY 2014:</span></b>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/FUNDAMENTAL-22.02.2014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-3266\" alt=\"FUNDAMENTAL 22.02.2014\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/FUNDAMENTAL-22.02.2014.png\" width=\"507\" height=\"519\" /></a></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">PROFITS FROM SINGLE LOT COMPLETED FUNDAMENTAL TRADES:</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x MICRO-LOT:\r\n13 trades at $0.10 cents each = $1.30 cents risk for $16.10 loss.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x MINI-LOT:\r\n13 trades at $1.00 each = $13.00 risk for $161.00 loss.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x STANDARD LOT:\r\n13 trades at $10.00 each = $130.00 risk for $1,610.00 loss</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">COMBINED FLASH, RADAR AND FUNDAMENTAL TRADES PROFIT PERFORMANCE</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">FEBRUARY 2014…SO FAR:</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">TRADING MICRO-LOTS:\r\n48 trades at $0.10 cents each = $4.80 risk for $58.60 profit.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">TRADING MINI-LOTS:\r\n48 trades at $1.00 each = $48.00 risk for $586.00 profit.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">TRADING STANDARD LOTS:\r\n48 trades at $10.00 each = $480.00 risk for $5,860.00 profit.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">COMBINED FLASH, RADAR AND FUNDAMENTAL TRADES PROFIT PERFORMANCE\r\n</span></b><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">TOTAL:  2014…SO FAR:</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">TRADING MICRO-LOTS:\r\n92 trades at $0.10 cents each = $9.20 risk for $137.10 profit.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">TRADING MINI-LOTS:\r\n92 trades at $1.00 each = $92.00 risk for $1,371.00 profit.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">TRADING STANDARD LOTS:\r\n92 trades at $10.00 each = $920.00 risk for $13,710.00 profit.</p>\r\nThe above examples are for illustration purposes only:\r\n\r\nThe profitability examples detailed above are based solely upon single lot trading, regardless of lot type. If multiple lot sizes are traded the profitability margins will be different than those shown.\r\n\r\nJust to provide more information so you understand where I am coming from with the risk / reward statements above. All of my trades are of different sizes and different size lot types. The above does not reflect the actual trading performance. I like to add to trades, profits are taken as the trade progresses and my overall cost average moves several times. All of my trades are of different lot styles. I trade a mixture of micro lots, mini lots and standard lots across my brokers.\r\n\r\nThe above results simply display your profit or loss if you placed a single lot trade on all the set-ups suggested and did nothing else.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">3. THE FUNDAMENTAL TRADERS OVERVIEW:</span></b><b style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\"> </b>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>THE MARKET IS A CHOP FEST…HERE ARE SOME THOUGHTS ON SURVIVING:</b><b style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\"> </b></p>\r\nThe market is what it is.\r\n\r\nAs traders we have to react and trade within what the market does whether we agree with the way the market implements news or reacts to technical levels. This can be a difficult pill to swallow if, like me, you are a fundamental before technical trader.\r\n\r\nThe market is frustrating at the present time, and we seem to be operating in channels that are difficult to trade in. Usually, channel trading is quite straightforward.\r\n\r\nOver the past few years we have lived with and traded currencies within an upward trending equity market scenario. At the end of last year, the FED changed its monetary policy by introducing tapering.\r\n\r\nThis is in itself bound to have an effect.\r\n\r\nInitially, when tapering was talked about it was generally believed that the USD would strengthen hard across the board and equities would fall. To date, this has not happened. Instead, the markets have continued to grind higher and although there are plenty of inter-market correlations that are no longer in sync the predicted USD strength still has not emerged along the lines thought of at the outset of tapering. Market dis-connects continue.\r\n\r\nIn the short to medium term I do believe that a major news event will be the trigger to get the ball moving but until that happens I think we ‘Chop”\r\n\r\nBit by bit the long term effects of Quantitative Easing will be tapered out of the markets and we will spend most of 2014 unwinding. Standing back it makes sense that conditions will be choppy as the Fed monetary policy changes take hold. I think because we live in a “now” society we expect the markets to react instantaneously; but we have to be patient.\r\n\r\nTrader survival is therefore paramount in a “Chop Fest” environment. What are the survival rules to consider?\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li>Risk Management is now even more important than ever. One way to help in this area is to keep your risk tolerance the same but do it by taking smaller positions and widening your stops so that the overall risk is the same but you just have more trading space to deal with volatility.</li>\r\n	<li>If you trade Standard lots maybe consider trading Mini lots instead. You can still build up profitable trades by adding multi lots. It also allows you greater flexibility to react to live trades by adding to positions or conversely taking partial position sizes off the table. Obviously, if you trade Mini lots you could consider Micro lots as an option.The bottom line though is smaller positions sizes makes sense in this type of market condition.\r\n\r\nYou can always revert back when the market changes to more trending market.</li>\r\n	<li>To give you an edge when entering trades. The best discipline that I have found is to use a “PULLBACK STRATEGY”. This basically involves waiting for a currency pair to pullback from the direction in which it is trading for maybe 15-30 minutes and then as it resumes it direction again you enter your trade back in the direction of the trend.I use this strategy for about 80% of my FLASH TRADES that are given to subscribers in the PREMIUM SERVICE.Every trade is a risk. The key is doing everything you can to minimise the risk parameters you have. The “PULLBACK STRATEGY” does this and once you get proficient in adopting it as a trading style it can be used 24 x 7 x 365.</li>\r\n	<li>If you are a very Conservative trader and you do not like the “Chop Fest” - Stop trading…. and stand aside and keep your broker account in $$$. This is a great trading option if you are uncomfortable with present conditions. When I first started trading I was once told sometimes your best trade is the trade you don\'t take.You are not chicken. Your trading style and your TRADING PLAN objectives (This is the discussion topic in TRADER TOPIC’s this week later in the blog), are your own.Capital preservation is paramount to success. Without capital you simply cannot trade. The market is cyclical, sometimes just need to be patient and wait to get on board again.</li>\r\n	<li>Basic trading guidelines often go out of the window through trader frustration particularly when, conditions are difficult to read and trends are virtually non-existent.Go back to basics; Remember you sell into strength and you buy into weakness. Buy low and sell high. Review your interpretation of Fibonacci charts and how to use pivot points.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe above are just some very basic thoughts that if adopted should keep your broker accounts with a trading balance.\r\n\r\nI wrote last week about FEAR and GREED and how “twitchy” the markets have become. My comments are still very much relevant this week.\r\n\r\nGood luck with your trading and take care.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">4. TRADER TOPICS:</span></b>\r\n\r\nAs promised several weeks ago, this week the subject of this section is TRADING PLANS. This will be a three-part TRADER TOPIC subject, covering TRADING PLANS as comprehensively as I can.\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">CREATING A TRADING PLAN</span></b></p>\r\nI will be honest; when I started trading I did not have a TRADING PLAN. I really did not see the need for one…I was wrong.\r\n\r\nTrading Forex will be more successful for you as a trader if you have a proper plan in place. The classic quote that is often used when referring to not having a TRADING PLAN is “Failing to plan is planning to fail”\r\n\r\nTrading plans are really a lot like insurance. You don’t usually want it until you’ve faced a catastrophe. But after that catastrophe, which maybe was a huge loss on a single trade, or worse, a margin call from one really bad trade, as a trader you probably recognize that something needs to be done.\r\n\r\nRegardless of how you get there, just the fact that you actually arrive at the destination of realizing that a TRADING PLAN is not just a “nice to have”, but sometimes a necessity, is generally a positive development in the journey / career of a Forex trader.\r\n\r\nThe bottom line is a TRADING PLAN is a must.\r\n\r\nHere is one very basic reason for having a plan: New traders sometimes barely even have the actual reasons for entering a trade. Imagine, that you were planning to loan money to a new business as an investment. Could you picture yourself lending money to a person without a business plan when they said that they were going to start their business based on “their gut?” Obviously no one should ever start a business by relying on his or her gut alone. However, plenty of new traders start trading in exactly that manner.\r\n\r\nSo, what should you include in your TRADING PLAN?\r\n\r\nA very simple approach is to look at it in four sections: WHAT, HOW, WHEN and WHY. My first TRADING PLAN was along these lines and was short and to the point. As time has elapsed since I started trading my own plan has now reached a staggering 21 pages including all inserts on profitability, plus how I trade with my various brokers and then finally my Marketing Plan.\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">WHAT:</span></b><b>  (What type of trader are you?)</b>\r\n\r\nI think that the initial question that you should ask yourself is “What type of trader am I?’ If you are a new trader, you may not know yet, bear in mind the TRADING PLAN is a fluid document for many things. As you develop as a trader your style will become apparent and you can update your plan accordingly.\r\n\r\nThe benefit from knowing what type of trader you are is quite straightforward. Defining what you are gives you a comfort zone. If you take a trade that is outside your definition and it loses money it serves as a reminder to you that you were not trading within your comfort zone.\r\n\r\nThe following is a very simple chart of trader types:\r\n\r\nTRADER TYPE:                    CHARACTERISTICS OF THE TYPE / STYLE:\r\n\r\nSCALPER                             Holds trades for a few minutes to maybe a few hours.\r\n\r\nDAY-TRADER                       Holds trades for less than a day (A bit longer than scalpers).\r\nSWING-TRADER                 Holds trades from a few hours to a few days.\r\n\r\nINTERMEDIATE and\r\n\r\nLONG-TERM TRADERS    Holds trades for at least a day and, possibly months / years.\r\n\r\nPOSITION TRADER            Holds trades as long as needed to build &amp; work a position.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">HOW:</span></b> (<b>How to manage positions / enter and exit trades?)</b>\r\n\r\nThis is a very important part of your TRADING PLAN. Without a definition of “how” the plan is really both useless and pointless.\r\n\r\nIn this section of your TRADING PLAN you should specify how many lots you are going to trade on whatever types of trade that you are going to enter. Additionally, you specify what your risk is per trade. This will obviously be in relation to your account size. The rough rule of thumb in this area is not to risk more than either 0.50%-0.75% of your overall account balance on any one trade. By doing this it tells you basically whether you should be trading Micro, Mini or Standard lots.\r\n\r\nThis section should also contain whether or not you will trade news events and what your risk will be around such events.\r\n\r\nThis area can be as complex or as straightforward as you want it to be. You can use SMA or EMA, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci Levels or Pivot points, whatever you like, whatever is comfortable with your trading style to describe entry / exit parameters to your trading.\r\n\r\nThe benefit of detail in this section, allows you the opportunity to troubleshoot losing trades. More definition definitely means more discipline.\r\n\r\nA very important point here is that the strategy must be your own, what you are comfortable with and not lifted / copied from another source. There is little point me providing a PDF of my TRADING PLAN because each of us is a different type / style of trader.\r\n\r\nThe above TRADER TYPES (In the “What” section) should help you in connection with outlining your “HOW”. The bottom line is to be comfortable as a trader. There is enough stress around trading without you trying to pigeon hole yourself into a type / style of trader that you are not.\r\n\r\nIn my own TRADING PLAN, I highlight definitions of RADAR, FLASH and FUNDAMENTAL trades. I add to this when each style of trade is appropriate and what my entry lot sizes are for each type of trade. I also include when I will add to positions, how I will use the ATR and Hedging on trades.\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">WHEN:</span></b> <b>(When will you trade?)</b>\r\n\r\nThis is the forgotten item in most TRADING PLANS.\r\n\r\nThere is so much flexibility as a Forex trader. The markets are open from 5.00pm Eastern (USA) on a Sunday night and close the following Friday at 5.00pm Eastern (USA). The Forex market moves 24x7\r\n\r\nHaving said that, the one thing that the Forex market thrives on is liquidity, without liquidity driving the market there is either no movement or extreme lack of liquidity movements, which personally drive me crazy.\r\n\r\nThere are principally, three trading sessions: -\r\n\r\nTHE ASIAN SESSION: - The Asian session is more often than not a lot quieter than the London and US sessions. It tends to take its lead from what happened previously in the US session.\r\n\r\nTHE LONDON (EUROPEAN) SESSION: - Liquidity definitely improves as the European markets open. The overlap from the Asian into European sessions is sometimes the most volatile and there are often very fast, very active, very volatile moves that can define momentum moves with currency pairs. As the Asian markets close the European session settles down\r\n\r\nTHE U.S. (AMERICAS) SESSION: - as the US comes on stream the volatility increases once more as the overlap between the European and U.S. traders take hold. I think it is safe to say that from 8.00am to 11.30am Eastern the Forex markets are at their most liquid period of the 24-day.\r\n\r\n(If I had to choose a place to live to be a professional Forex trader…it has to Europe. It is as good as a 12-hour day!!)\r\n\r\nWhen you trade can have a huge influence on your results. It should also define your trading strategy. High volume equals higher risk.\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">WHY:</span></b> <b>(This is where you write out your goals and objectives)</b>\r\n\r\nThis is the final segment and probably the most important of all of them when you look at your TRADING PLAN. Why do you want to be a Forex trader?\r\n\r\nMore time with the family\r\n\r\nor\r\n\r\nFinancial freedom\r\n\r\nTrading is NOT easy. It can be very difficult, and tough, and costly and most of all totally 100% frustrating at times.\r\n\r\nCommon sense does NOT always apply. The markets are what they are, not what you want them to be, or think they should be. Set your financial objectives conservatively. I was told that a target of 1% - 2% of your account balance per day is good (Personally, I target 1% per day). Maximum trade size should not see you risk more than 0.50%-0.75% of your account balance.\r\n\r\nBreak down your income objectives to daily targets and build up to weekly and monthly goals. Create an excel spreadsheet that you can follow and use to check performance. You must journal <b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">ALL</span></b> your trades (Entry, Exit, was it a Market order, or a Limit order, time of day trade placed or triggered, position size etc.).\r\n\r\nI created a mini marketing document this year with detailed goals and objectives. I set out at the beginning of 2014 certain thoughts and views on how the markets would perform. This is part of my FUNDAMENTAL overview contained in my TRADING PLAN. This year for me it is a substantial document.\r\n\r\nA TRADING PLAN is NOT something you do and then file away, it should be referred to regularly to check and test your strategies and objectives; in essence a “fluid” working document.\r\n\r\nThere are great opportunities in trading currencies. You just have to be realistic and set your financial goals to be achievable bearing in mind how you trade, when you trade and how much capital you are risking.\r\n\r\nThe “WHY” serves as a reminder as to why you are prepared to go through the pain when times get difficult? The WHY helps put things in perspective relative to the bigger picture?\r\n\r\nIf you find it totally frustrating trying to achieve the goals that you set yourself personally and financially you have to re-evaluate.\r\n\r\nAre you goals realistic?\r\n\r\nAre you following your plan?\r\n\r\nLooking at your results versus your plan allows a complete diagnosis of your performance.\r\n\r\nEither you inject some self-discipline and move forward, or, you quit trading. In my opinion and this is the hardest lesson that I have had to learn, there are three things when trading that you must use everyday: -\r\n\r\n1. DISCIPLINE\r\n2. DISCIPLINE\r\n<span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">3. DISCIPLINE</span>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">5. MY CURRENT LIVE TRADES:</span></b>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">FLASH TRADES:</span></b></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"> FT37\r\nEUR/USD\r\nShort\r\nCost Average: 1.3712\r\nStop Loss: 1.3962\r\nLimit / Target: 1.2760\r\nMy Position Size: 20%\r\nClosing Weekly Position: 1.3738\r\n<span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">My present Profit/Loss position:  - 26pips</span></p>\r\nI have changed my perspective on this trade. I took profits off the table on Thursday morning last week and having re-evaluated this trade I have now decided that this is in real terms a FUNDAMENTAL trade.\r\n\r\nBasically, I believe that the EUROZONE is another accident away from a crisis. I think that Janet Yellen is more Hawkish than Dovish and I do believe that the ECB through Draghi has to accommodate more and the possibility of negative deposit rates is only a matter of when not if. Plus full-blown QE is NOT off the table.\r\n\r\nWith this in my mind I am bullish the USD and bearish the EUR in the longer term.\r\n\r\nThe Monthly chart below shows the long-term wedge that the EUR/USD is trading in. I do think that in two / three months we will be trading much lower so ergo  I am in this trade.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/EURUSD-MONTHLY-22.02.2014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-3253\" alt=\"EURUSD MONTHLY 22.02.2014\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/EURUSD-MONTHLY-22.02.2014-1024x522.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"522\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">RADAR TRADES: </span></b></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">RT39\r\nEUR/GBP\r\nShort\r\nCost Average: 0.8224\r\nStop Loss: 0.8308\r\nLimit / Target: 0.8000\r\nMy Position Size: 20%\r\nClosing Weekly Position: 0.8268\r\n<span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">My present Profit/Loss position:  - 34pips</span></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">For the same reasons as the EUR/USD above I am happy to stay short this pair.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">FUNDAMENTAL TRADES:</span></b></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">I have no “LIVE” FUNDAMENTAL trades at this time.<b></b></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b></p>\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">6. TRADES THAT ARE ON MY RADAR:</span></b>\r\n\r\nI have the following RADAR trade in position with my brokers.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">USD/CHF\r\nLong\r\nEntry Level: 0.8000\r\nStop Loss: 0.8750\r\nLimit / Target: 0.9250</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"> The following RADAR trades are not yet placed with brokers. It is my intention to do this either at the market open (Sunday evening) or Monday morning after the European session. I will advise when they are placed via Twitter.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">AUD/USD\r\nShort\r\nEntry Level: 0.9010\r\nStop Loss: 0.9085\r\nLimit / Target: 0.8500</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">USD/SEK\r\nLong\r\nEntry Level: 6.6000\r\nStop Loss: 6.4500\r\nLimit / Target: 6.8000</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">USD/CAD\r\nLong\r\nEntry Level 1.1080\r\nStop Loss 1.1040\r\nLimit / Target 1.1250</p>\r\nFUNDAMENTAL TRADES ON MY RADAR\r\n\r\nThe Cross rate commodity pairs that I love to trade are basically breaking out and I need pullbacks to give me entry set-ups. I am not going to list out the stops and targets this week but basic entry levels, with comments that MAY get me looking to enter long. I have also included monthly charts with Fibonacci levels and key levels where applicable.\r\n\r\nPlease bear in mind these trades are MICRO LOTS to start with and only upon taking shape with momentum in my direction will I add further lots to increase my position size. These currency pairs are wild and volatile. If you cannot cope with extreme volatility and moves that do not make sense at times I suggest that you ignore these trades.\r\n\r\nEUR/AUD:\r\nThe risk with this currency pair is still 1.5000. In fact I believe if you were going to take this trade long, the risk is a pullback to 1.4900. Entry levels need to be with a deep pullback from existing levels, maybe 1.5200.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/EURAUD-MONTHLY-22.02.2014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-3254\" alt=\"EURAUD MONTHLY 22.02.2014\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/EURAUD-MONTHLY-22.02.2014-1024x522.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"522\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/AUD:\r\nI think the risk level with this pair should be 1.8200. GBP is very bullish and I think that the 61.8% Fibonacci is calling at 1.9215.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/GBPAUD-MONTHLY-22.02.2014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-3256\" alt=\"GBPAUD MONTHLY 22.02.2014\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/GBPAUD-MONTHLY-22.02.2014-1024x522.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"522\" /></a>\r\n\r\nEUR/NZD:\r\n\r\nThe break out level at 1.6800 beckons all traders. This pair really moves and I think if you were really taking a longer-term view the monthly ATR is about 800 pips and so the risk at 1.6000, makes this a very costly trade if you are not in profit almost immediately. Swap rates are high. I would be looking at a risk / stop loss of about 1.6400 from present levels. That level of 1.64000 would make a great entry level with 1.6000 as the stop loss, if we can get the pullback.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/EURNZD-MONTHLY-22.02.2014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-3257\" alt=\"EURNZD MONTHLY 22.02.2014\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/EURNZD-MONTHLY-22.02.2014-1024x522.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"522\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/NZD:\r\n\r\nThis pair has broken out above 2.0000. There are great opportunities with this pair to the upside. 1.9700-1.9800 represents the stop loss area and the upside could be anything from 500 pips to 5,000 pips.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/GBPNZD-MONTHLY-22.02.2014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-3258\" alt=\"GBPNZD MONTHLY 22.02.2014\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/GBPNZD-MONTHLY-22.02.2014-1024x522.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"522\" /></a>\r\n\r\nEUR/CAD:\r\n\r\nAn extremely bullish pair; entry can only really be on a pullback. Levels do not really apply as we are in a breakout above the 52 week high. 1.5150 looks good (this was the pullback level earlier last week after the 1.5200 break higher) to me as an entry, with a stop below 1.5000 (only dealing in round numbers)\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/EURCAD-MONTHLY-22.02.2014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-3259\" alt=\"EURCAD MONTHLY 22.02.2014\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/EURCAD-MONTHLY-22.02.2014-1024x522.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"522\" /></a>\r\n\r\nGBP/CAD:\r\n\r\nWith the GBP being quite well supported and CAD being weak, this pair can run! Entries around 1.8400 look good with stops at 1.7980 (this was previous sticking level)\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/GBPCAD-MONTHLY-22.02.2014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-3260\" alt=\"GBPCAD MONTHLY 22.02.2014\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/GBPCAD-MONTHLY-22.02.2014-1024x522.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"522\" /></a></span></b>\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">7. LOOKING FORWARD…THE KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS:</span></b>\r\n\r\n<b>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3738.</b>  All eyes are on 1.3680 as the bull / bear line in the sand for the EUR/USD. To be honest the break of this support level is probably a lot to do with the way the Forex markets are operating at the moment. It is obviously very well supported.  I am looking at the range being 1.3680 to 1.3800.\r\n\r\n<b>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.6614.  </b>The cable (GBP/USD) is now under pressure after breaking out last week. It was refused entry above 1.6800 and was dumped down. Some mixed data from the UK has forced it even lower during the week taking the cross rate pairs with it as well. Personally, below 1.6600 I see a re-test of 1.6250 and resistance is really set now at 1.6650 and then 1.6700.\r\n\r\n<b>AUD/USD: Closing Price 0.8978</b>.  The AUD I thought was going to put up the white flag earlier in the week but with equities continuing to grind higher it has remained reasonably well supported. It is not where it should be price wise given that the S &amp; P is hovering around all-time highs but nevertheless it has NOT collapsed. The range that interests me is 0.8950 to 0.9075.\r\n\r\n<b>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8274</b>.  A very similar story with the NZD as it is with the AUD. Support is big at 0.8250 and resistance is excellent at 0.8320.\r\n\r\n<b>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.1107.</b>  Some stellar moves in the CAD and its cross rates during the week and today we pulled back almost 100 pips off the highs. Around this level is a place to establish a long position. The range is 1.1080 to 1.1230.\r\n\r\n<b>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.8879</b>.  I see absolutely no point whatsoever trading this pair. Boring, boring, boring. Wake me up at 0.8800.\r\n\r\n<b>USD/JPY: Closing Price 102.48.  </b>We are still in exactly the same range as last week.  No change in my opinion. I think it’s going lower towards 99.50 before we hit 110.00. The range is 101.50 to 102.80.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">8. MAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:</span></b>\r\n\r\nSUNDAY: N/A\r\n\r\nMONDAY: N/A\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: N/A\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: N/\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: N/A\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: EUR – CPi.\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b>\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">9. FINAL THOUGHTS:</span></b>\r\n\r\nNot much in news events that interest me this week.\r\n\r\nI am expecting the “Chop Fest” to continue and with no major published news that really interests me due to published I think that the forex markets will be in the hands of the equity markets for direction and also “God help us all” the “numpty” politicians claiming their 30 seconds of TV fame with sound- bytes.\r\n\r\nWith that in mind, always remember that there is a market everyday. You do not need to trade everyday to make your financial goals. If it’s too choppy stand aside and in any event take smaller position sizes.\r\n\r\nGood luck and trade within your TRADE PLAN guidelines and most importantly use sound MONEY MANAGEMENT SKILLS to control your risk.\r\n\r\nPLAN YOUR TRADES and TRADE YOUR PLAN.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nSaturday February 22nd 2014\r\n\r\nEMAIL / FOLLOW ME AT:\r\npremiumservice@weeklyfxdrivethru.com\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\nTwitter: @ThePremService\r\n<span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">Google+/scottpickering\r\n</span><span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">StockTwits; thepipaccumulator</span>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','THE MARKET IS A CHOP FEST…HERE ARE SOME THOUGHTS ON SURVIVING:','','publish','open','closed','','market-chop-festhere-thoughts-surviving','','','2014-02-22 10:21:28','2014-02-22 15:21:28','',0,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?post_type=member_posts&#038;p=3267',0,'member_posts','',0),(3272,1,'2014-02-22 10:21:28','2014-02-22 15:21:28','<p style=\"text-align: left;\" align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">1. INTRODUCTION:</span></b></p>\r\nDespite the fact I think that in my opinion the Forex market is currently a bit of a chop fest and that it seems to just want to squeeze extremes and exert as much pain as possible to traders, I had from a personal viewpoint my best trading week this year. This week over +500 pips profit again. My absolute $$$ return has me well ahead of my trading plan objective. To place the week in context, most of the pips were generated from related to CAD related trades in one day.\r\n\r\nI do not want to promote “doom and gloom” but I see a period of chop fest intensifying as we move forward and in these situations sometimes your best trade is NOT to trade. I will debate the current market conditions later in this blog.\r\n\r\nThe big news items during the past week regarding the PMi’s in China and Europe plus the FOMC meeting minutes didn’t really move the major pairs out of their trading channels and largely they remained range bound. The big number in the market to trigger moves across the board appears to be the EUR/USD support at 1.3680. If this gives way, and on the day it breaks, we end the day below this level, I believe this will be the catalyst for some bold moves across many currency pairs.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">2. TRADING SUMMARY:</span></b>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">RADAR, FLASH and FUNDAMENTAL TRADES</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">FEBRUARY 2014 and YEAR to date:</span></b></p>\r\nBelow I show the up to date performances for my various trading styles. Full excel spreadsheets area also in the subscriber area of the PREMIUM SERVICE.<b style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b>\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">RADAR TRADES – FEBRUARY 2014:</span></b>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/RADAR-1-22.02.2014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-3262\" alt=\"RADAR 1 22.02.2014\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/RADAR-1-22.02.2014.png\" width=\"543\" height=\"462\" /></a></span></b><b></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/RADAR-2-22.02.2014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-3263\" alt=\"RADAR 2 22.02.2014\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/RADAR-2-22.02.2014.png\" width=\"543\" height=\"477\" /></a></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">PROFITS FROM SINGLE LOT COMPLETED RADAR TRADES:</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x MICRO-LOT:\r\n11 trades at $0.10 cents each = $1.10 risk for $14.80 profit.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x MINI-LOT:\r\n11 trades at $1.00 each = $11.00 risk for $148.00 profit.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x STANDARD LOT:\r\n11 trades at $10.00 each = $110.00 risk for $1,480.00 profit.</p>\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">FLASH TRADES – FEBRUARY 2014:</span></b>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/FLASH-1-22.02.2014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-3264\" alt=\"FLASH 1 22.02.2014\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/FLASH-1-22.02.2014.png\" width=\"477\" height=\"481\" /></a></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/FLASH-2-22.02.2014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-3265\" alt=\"FLASH 2 22.02.2014\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/FLASH-2-22.02.2014.png\" width=\"497\" height=\"488\" /></a></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">PROFITS FROM SINGLE LOT COMPLETED FLASH TRADES:</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x MICRO-LOT:\r\n24 trades at $0.10 cents each = $2.40 cents risk for $59.90 profit.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x MINI-LOT:\r\n24 trades at $1.00 each = $24.00 risk for $599.00 profit.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x STANDARD LOT:\r\n24 trades at $10.00 each = $240.00 risk for $5,990.00 profit.</p>\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">FUNDAMENTAL TRADES – FEBRUARY 2014:</span></b>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/FUNDAMENTAL-22.02.2014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-3266\" alt=\"FUNDAMENTAL 22.02.2014\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/FUNDAMENTAL-22.02.2014.png\" width=\"507\" height=\"519\" /></a></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">PROFITS FROM SINGLE LOT COMPLETED FUNDAMENTAL TRADES:</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x MICRO-LOT:\r\n13 trades at $0.10 cents each = $1.30 cents risk for $16.10 loss.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x MINI-LOT:\r\n13 trades at $1.00 each = $13.00 risk for $161.00 loss.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x STANDARD LOT:\r\n13 trades at $10.00 each = $130.00 risk for $1,610.00 loss</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">COMBINED FLASH, RADAR AND FUNDAMENTAL TRADES PROFIT PERFORMANCE</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">FEBRUARY 2014…SO FAR:</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">TRADING MICRO-LOTS:\r\n48 trades at $0.10 cents each = $4.80 risk for $58.60 profit.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">TRADING MINI-LOTS:\r\n48 trades at $1.00 each = $48.00 risk for $586.00 profit.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">TRADING STANDARD LOTS:\r\n48 trades at $10.00 each = $480.00 risk for $5,860.00 profit.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">COMBINED FLASH, RADAR AND FUNDAMENTAL TRADES PROFIT PERFORMANCE\r\n</span></b><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">TOTAL:  2014…SO FAR:</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">TRADING MICRO-LOTS:\r\n92 trades at $0.10 cents each = $9.20 risk for $137.10 profit.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">TRADING MINI-LOTS:\r\n92 trades at $1.00 each = $92.00 risk for $1,371.00 profit.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">TRADING STANDARD LOTS:\r\n92 trades at $10.00 each = $920.00 risk for $13,710.00 profit.</p>\r\nThe above examples are for illustration purposes only:\r\n\r\nThe profitability examples detailed above are based solely upon single lot trading, regardless of lot type. If multiple lot sizes are traded the profitability margins will be different than those shown.\r\n\r\nJust to provide more information so you understand where I am coming from with the risk / reward statements above. All of my trades are of different sizes and different size lot types. The above does not reflect the actual trading performance. I like to add to trades, profits are taken as the trade progresses and my overall cost average moves several times. All of my trades are of different lot styles. I trade a mixture of micro lots, mini lots and standard lots across my brokers.\r\n\r\nThe above results simply display your profit or loss if you placed a single lot trade on all the set-ups suggested and did nothing else.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">3. THE FUNDAMENTAL TRADERS OVERVIEW:</span></b><b style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\"> </b>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>THE MARKET IS A CHOP FEST…HERE ARE SOME THOUGHTS ON SURVIVING:</b><b style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\"> </b></p>\r\nThe market is what it is.\r\n\r\nAs traders we have to react and trade within what the market does whether we agree with the way the market implements news or reacts to technical levels. This can be a difficult pill to swallow if, like me, you are a fundamental before technical trader.\r\n\r\nThe market is frustrating at the present time, and we seem to be operating in channels that are difficult to trade in. Usually, channel trading is quite straightforward.\r\n\r\nOver the past few years we have lived with and traded currencies within an upward trending equity market scenario. At the end of last year, the FED changed its monetary policy by introducing tapering.\r\n\r\nThis is in itself bound to have an effect.\r\n\r\nInitially, when tapering was talked about it was generally believed that the USD would strengthen hard across the board and equities would fall. To date, this has not happened. Instead, the markets have continued to grind higher and although there are plenty of inter-market correlations that are no longer in sync the predicted USD strength still has not emerged along the lines thought of at the outset of tapering. Market dis-connects continue.\r\n\r\nIn the short to medium term I do believe that a major news event will be the trigger to get the ball moving but until that happens I think we ‘Chop”\r\n\r\nBit by bit the long term effects of Quantitative Easing will be tapered out of the markets and we will spend most of 2014 unwinding. Standing back it makes sense that conditions will be choppy as the Fed monetary policy changes take hold. I think because we live in a “now” society we expect the markets to react instantaneously; but we have to be patient.\r\n\r\nTrader survival is therefore paramount in a “Chop Fest” environment. What are the survival rules to consider?\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li>Risk Management is now even more important than ever. One way to help in this area is to keep your risk tolerance the same but do it by taking smaller positions and widening your stops so that the overall risk is the same but you just have more trading space to deal with volatility.</li>\r\n	<li>If you trade Standard lots maybe consider trading Mini lots instead. You can still build up profitable trades by adding multi lots. It also allows you greater flexibility to react to live trades by adding to positions or conversely taking partial position sizes off the table. Obviously, if you trade Mini lots you could consider Micro lots as an option.The bottom line though is smaller positions sizes makes sense in this type of market condition.\r\n\r\nYou can always revert back when the market changes to more trending market.</li>\r\n	<li>To give you an edge when entering trades. The best discipline that I have found is to use a “PULLBACK STRATEGY”. This basically involves waiting for a currency pair to pullback from the direction in which it is trading for maybe 15-30 minutes and then as it resumes it direction again you enter your trade back in the direction of the trend.I use this strategy for about 80% of my FLASH TRADES that are given to subscribers in the PREMIUM SERVICE.Every trade is a risk. The key is doing everything you can to minimise the risk parameters you have. The “PULLBACK STRATEGY” does this and once you get proficient in adopting it as a trading style it can be used 24 x 7 x 365.</li>\r\n	<li>If you are a very Conservative trader and you do not like the “Chop Fest” - Stop trading…. and stand aside and keep your broker account in $$$. This is a great trading option if you are uncomfortable with present conditions. When I first started trading I was once told sometimes your best trade is the trade you don\'t take.You are not chicken. Your trading style and your TRADING PLAN objectives (This is the discussion topic in TRADER TOPIC’s this week later in the blog), are your own.Capital preservation is paramount to success. Without capital you simply cannot trade. The market is cyclical, sometimes just need to be patient and wait to get on board again.</li>\r\n	<li>Basic trading guidelines often go out of the window through trader frustration particularly when, conditions are difficult to read and trends are virtually non-existent.Go back to basics; Remember you sell into strength and you buy into weakness. Buy low and sell high. Review your interpretation of Fibonacci charts and how to use pivot points.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe above are just some very basic thoughts that if adopted should keep your broker accounts with a trading balance.\r\n\r\nI wrote last week about FEAR and GREED and how “twitchy” the markets have become. My comments are still very much relevant this week.\r\n\r\nGood luck with your trading and take care.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">4. TRADER TOPICS:</span></b>\r\n\r\nAs promised several weeks ago, this week the subject of this section is TRADING PLANS. This will be a three-part TRADER TOPIC subject, covering TRADING PLANS as comprehensively as I can.\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">CREATING A TRADING PLAN</span></b></p>\r\nI will be honest; when I started trading I did not have a TRADING PLAN. I really did not see the need for one…I was wrong.\r\n\r\nTrading Forex will be more successful for you as a trader if you have a proper plan in place. The classic quote that is often used when referring to not having a TRADING PLAN is “Failing to plan is planning to fail”\r\n\r\nTrading plans are really a lot like insurance. You don’t usually want it until you’ve faced a catastrophe. But after that catastrophe, which maybe was a huge loss on a single trade, or worse, a margin call from one really bad trade, as a trader you probably recognize that something needs to be done.\r\n\r\nRegardless of how you get there, just the fact that you actually arrive at the destination of realizing that a TRADING PLAN is not just a “nice to have”, but sometimes a necessity, is generally a positive development in the journey / career of a Forex trader.\r\n\r\nThe bottom line is a TRADING PLAN is a must.\r\n\r\nHere is one very basic reason for having a plan: New traders sometimes barely even have the actual reasons for entering a trade. Imagine, that you were planning to loan money to a new business as an investment. Could you picture yourself lending money to a person without a business plan when they said that they were going to start their business based on “their gut?” Obviously no one should ever start a business by relying on his or her gut alone. However, plenty of new traders start trading in exactly that manner.\r\n\r\nSo, what should you include in your TRADING PLAN?\r\n\r\nA very simple approach is to look at it in four sections: WHAT, HOW, WHEN and WHY. My first TRADING PLAN was along these lines and was short and to the point. As time has elapsed since I started trading my own plan has now reached a staggering 21 pages including all inserts on profitability, plus how I trade with my various brokers and then finally my Marketing Plan.\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">WHAT:</span></b><b>  (What type of trader are you?)</b>\r\n\r\nI think that the initial question that you should ask yourself is “What type of trader am I?’ If you are a new trader, you may not know yet, bear in mind the TRADING PLAN is a fluid document for many things. As you develop as a trader your style will become apparent and you can update your plan accordingly.\r\n\r\nThe benefit from knowing what type of trader you are is quite straightforward. Defining what you are gives you a comfort zone. If you take a trade that is outside your definition and it loses money it serves as a reminder to you that you were not trading within your comfort zone.\r\n\r\nThe following is a very simple chart of trader types:\r\n\r\nTRADER TYPE:                    CHARACTERISTICS OF THE TYPE / STYLE:\r\n\r\nSCALPER                             Holds trades for a few minutes to maybe a few hours.\r\n\r\nDAY-TRADER                       Holds trades for less than a day (A bit longer than scalpers).\r\nSWING-TRADER                 Holds trades from a few hours to a few days.\r\n\r\nINTERMEDIATE and\r\n\r\nLONG-TERM TRADERS    Holds trades for at least a day and, possibly months / years.\r\n\r\nPOSITION TRADER            Holds trades as long as needed to build &amp; work a position.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">HOW:</span></b> (<b>How to manage positions / enter and exit trades?)</b>\r\n\r\nThis is a very important part of your TRADING PLAN. Without a definition of “how” the plan is really both useless and pointless.\r\n\r\nIn this section of your TRADING PLAN you should specify how many lots you are going to trade on whatever types of trade that you are going to enter. Additionally, you specify what your risk is per trade. This will obviously be in relation to your account size. The rough rule of thumb in this area is not to risk more than either 0.50%-0.75% of your overall account balance on any one trade. By doing this it tells you basically whether you should be trading Micro, Mini or Standard lots.\r\n\r\nThis section should also contain whether or not you will trade news events and what your risk will be around such events.\r\n\r\nThis area can be as complex or as straightforward as you want it to be. You can use SMA or EMA, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci Levels or Pivot points, whatever you like, whatever is comfortable with your trading style to describe entry / exit parameters to your trading.\r\n\r\nThe benefit of detail in this section, allows you the opportunity to troubleshoot losing trades. More definition definitely means more discipline.\r\n\r\nA very important point here is that the strategy must be your own, what you are comfortable with and not lifted / copied from another source. There is little point me providing a PDF of my TRADING PLAN because each of us is a different type / style of trader.\r\n\r\nThe above TRADER TYPES (In the “What” section) should help you in connection with outlining your “HOW”. The bottom line is to be comfortable as a trader. There is enough stress around trading without you trying to pigeon hole yourself into a type / style of trader that you are not.\r\n\r\nIn my own TRADING PLAN, I highlight definitions of RADAR, FLASH and FUNDAMENTAL trades. I add to this when each style of trade is appropriate and what my entry lot sizes are for each type of trade. I also include when I will add to positions, how I will use the ATR and Hedging on trades.\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">WHEN:</span></b> <b>(When will you trade?)</b>\r\n\r\nThis is the forgotten item in most TRADING PLANS.\r\n\r\nThere is so much flexibility as a Forex trader. The markets are open from 5.00pm Eastern (USA) on a Sunday night and close the following Friday at 5.00pm Eastern (USA). The Forex market moves 24x7\r\n\r\nHaving said that, the one thing that the Forex market thrives on is liquidity, without liquidity driving the market there is either no movement or extreme lack of liquidity movements, which personally drive me crazy.\r\n\r\nThere are principally, three trading sessions: -\r\n\r\nTHE ASIAN SESSION: - The Asian session is more often than not a lot quieter than the London and US sessions. It tends to take its lead from what happened previously in the US session.\r\n\r\nTHE LONDON (EUROPEAN) SESSION: - Liquidity definitely improves as the European markets open. The overlap from the Asian into European sessions is sometimes the most volatile and there are often very fast, very active, very volatile moves that can define momentum moves with currency pairs. As the Asian markets close the European session settles down\r\n\r\nTHE U.S. (AMERICAS) SESSION: - as the US comes on stream the volatility increases once more as the overlap between the European and U.S. traders take hold. I think it is safe to say that from 8.00am to 11.30am Eastern the Forex markets are at their most liquid period of the 24-day.\r\n\r\n(If I had to choose a place to live to be a professional Forex trader…it has to Europe. It is as good as a 12-hour day!!)\r\n\r\nWhen you trade can have a huge influence on your results. It should also define your trading strategy. High volume equals higher risk.\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">WHY:</span></b> <b>(This is where you write out your goals and objectives)</b>\r\n\r\nThis is the final segment and probably the most important of all of them when you look at your TRADING PLAN. Why do you want to be a Forex trader?\r\n\r\nMore time with the family\r\n\r\nor\r\n\r\nFinancial freedom\r\n\r\nTrading is NOT easy. It can be very difficult, and tough, and costly and most of all totally 100% frustrating at times.\r\n\r\nCommon sense does NOT always apply. The markets are what they are, not what you want them to be, or think they should be. Set your financial objectives conservatively. I was told that a target of 1% - 2% of your account balance per day is good (Personally, I target 1% per day). Maximum trade size should not see you risk more than 0.50%-0.75% of your account balance.\r\n\r\nBreak down your income objectives to daily targets and build up to weekly and monthly goals. Create an excel spreadsheet that you can follow and use to check performance. You must journal <b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">ALL</span></b> your trades (Entry, Exit, was it a Market order, or a Limit order, time of day trade placed or triggered, position size etc.).\r\n\r\nI created a mini marketing document this year with detailed goals and objectives. I set out at the beginning of 2014 certain thoughts and views on how the markets would perform. This is part of my FUNDAMENTAL overview contained in my TRADING PLAN. This year for me it is a substantial document.\r\n\r\nA TRADING PLAN is NOT something you do and then file away, it should be referred to regularly to check and test your strategies and objectives; in essence a “fluid” working document.\r\n\r\nThere are great opportunities in trading currencies. You just have to be realistic and set your financial goals to be achievable bearing in mind how you trade, when you trade and how much capital you are risking.\r\n\r\nThe “WHY” serves as a reminder as to why you are prepared to go through the pain when times get difficult? The WHY helps put things in perspective relative to the bigger picture?\r\n\r\nIf you find it totally frustrating trying to achieve the goals that you set yourself personally and financially you have to re-evaluate.\r\n\r\nAre you goals realistic?\r\n\r\nAre you following your plan?\r\n\r\nLooking at your results versus your plan allows a complete diagnosis of your performance.\r\n\r\nEither you inject some self-discipline and move forward, or, you quit trading. In my opinion and this is the hardest lesson that I have had to learn, there are three things when trading that you must use everyday: -\r\n\r\n1. DISCIPLINE\r\n2. DISCIPLINE\r\n<span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">3. DISCIPLINE</span>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">5. MY CURRENT LIVE TRADES:</span></b>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">FLASH TRADES:</span></b></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"> FT37\r\nEUR/USD\r\nShort\r\nCost Average: 1.3712\r\nStop Loss: 1.3962\r\nLimit / Target: 1.2760\r\nMy Position Size: 20%\r\nClosing Weekly Position: 1.3738\r\n<span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">My present Profit/Loss position:  - 26pips</span></p>\r\nI have changed my perspective on this trade. I took profits off the table on Thursday morning last week and having re-evaluated this trade I have now decided that this is in real terms a FUNDAMENTAL trade.\r\n\r\nBasically, I believe that the EUROZONE is another accident away from a crisis. I think that Janet Yellen is more Hawkish than Dovish and I do believe that the ECB through Draghi has to accommodate more and the possibility of negative deposit rates is only a matter of when not if. Plus full-blown QE is NOT off the table.\r\n\r\nWith this in my mind I am bullish the USD and bearish the EUR in the longer term.\r\n\r\nThe Monthly chart below shows the long-term wedge that the EUR/USD is trading in. I do think that in two / three months we will be trading much lower so ergo  I am in this trade.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/EURUSD-MONTHLY-22.02.2014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-3253\" alt=\"EURUSD MONTHLY 22.02.2014\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/EURUSD-MONTHLY-22.02.2014-1024x522.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"522\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">RADAR TRADES: </span></b></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">RT39\r\nEUR/GBP\r\nShort\r\nCost Average: 0.8224\r\nStop Loss: 0.8308\r\nLimit / Target: 0.8000\r\nMy Position Size: 20%\r\nClosing Weekly Position: 0.8268\r\n<span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">My present Profit/Loss position:  - 34pips</span></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">For the same reasons as the EUR/USD above I am happy to stay short this pair.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">FUNDAMENTAL TRADES:</span></b></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">I have no “LIVE” FUNDAMENTAL trades at this time.<b></b></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b></p>\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">6. TRADES THAT ARE ON MY RADAR:</span></b>\r\n\r\nI have the following RADAR trade in position with my brokers.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">USD/CHF\r\nLong\r\nEntry Level: 0.8000\r\nStop Loss: 0.8750\r\nLimit / Target: 0.9250</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"> The following RADAR trades are not yet placed with brokers. It is my intention to do this either at the market open (Sunday evening) or Monday morning after the European session. I will advise when they are placed via Twitter.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">AUD/USD\r\nShort\r\nEntry Level: 0.9010\r\nStop Loss: 0.9085\r\nLimit / Target: 0.8500</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">USD/SEK\r\nLong\r\nEntry Level: 6.6000\r\nStop Loss: 6.4500\r\nLimit / Target: 6.8000</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">USD/CAD\r\nLong\r\nEntry Level 1.1080\r\nStop Loss 1.1040\r\nLimit / Target 1.1250</p>\r\nFUNDAMENTAL TRADES ON MY RADAR\r\n\r\nThe Cross rate commodity pairs that I love to trade are basically breaking out and I need pullbacks to give me entry set-ups. I am not going to list out the stops and targets this week but basic entry levels, with comments that MAY get me looking to enter long. I have also included monthly charts with Fibonacci levels and key levels where applicable.\r\n\r\nPlease bear in mind these trades are MICRO LOTS to start with and only upon taking shape with momentum in my direction will I add further lots to increase my position size. These currency pairs are wild and volatile. If you cannot cope with extreme volatility and moves that do not make sense at times I suggest that you ignore these trades.\r\n\r\nEUR/AUD:\r\nThe risk with this currency pair is still 1.5000. In fact I believe if you were going to take this trade long, the risk is a pullback to 1.4900. Entry levels need to be with a deep pullback from existing levels, maybe 1.5200.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/EURAUD-MONTHLY-22.02.2014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-3254\" alt=\"EURAUD MONTHLY 22.02.2014\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/EURAUD-MONTHLY-22.02.2014-1024x522.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"522\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/AUD:\r\nI think the risk level with this pair should be 1.8200. GBP is very bullish and I think that the 61.8% Fibonacci is calling at 1.9215.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/GBPAUD-MONTHLY-22.02.2014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-3256\" alt=\"GBPAUD MONTHLY 22.02.2014\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/GBPAUD-MONTHLY-22.02.2014-1024x522.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"522\" /></a>\r\n\r\nEUR/NZD:\r\n\r\nThe break out level at 1.6800 beckons all traders. This pair really moves and I think if you were really taking a longer-term view the monthly ATR is about 800 pips and so the risk at 1.6000, makes this a very costly trade if you are not in profit almost immediately. Swap rates are high. I would be looking at a risk / stop loss of about 1.6400 from present levels. That level of 1.64000 would make a great entry level with 1.6000 as the stop loss, if we can get the pullback.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/EURNZD-MONTHLY-22.02.2014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-3257\" alt=\"EURNZD MONTHLY 22.02.2014\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/EURNZD-MONTHLY-22.02.2014-1024x522.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"522\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/NZD:\r\n\r\nThis pair has broken out above 2.0000. There are great opportunities with this pair to the upside. 1.9700-1.9800 represents the stop loss area and the upside could be anything from 500 pips to 5,000 pips.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/GBPNZD-MONTHLY-22.02.2014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-3258\" alt=\"GBPNZD MONTHLY 22.02.2014\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/GBPNZD-MONTHLY-22.02.2014-1024x522.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"522\" /></a>\r\n\r\nEUR/CAD:\r\n\r\nAn extremely bullish pair; entry can only really be on a pullback. Levels do not really apply as we are in a breakout above the 52 week high. 1.5150 looks good (this was the pullback level earlier last week after the 1.5200 break higher) to me as an entry, with a stop below 1.5000 (only dealing in round numbers)\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/EURCAD-MONTHLY-22.02.2014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-3259\" alt=\"EURCAD MONTHLY 22.02.2014\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/EURCAD-MONTHLY-22.02.2014-1024x522.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"522\" /></a>\r\n\r\nGBP/CAD:\r\n\r\nWith the GBP being quite well supported and CAD being weak, this pair can run! Entries around 1.8400 look good with stops at 1.7980 (this was previous sticking level)\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/GBPCAD-MONTHLY-22.02.2014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-3260\" alt=\"GBPCAD MONTHLY 22.02.2014\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/GBPCAD-MONTHLY-22.02.2014-1024x522.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"522\" /></a></span></b>\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">7. LOOKING FORWARD…THE KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS:</span></b>\r\n\r\n<b>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3738.</b>  All eyes are on 1.3680 as the bull / bear line in the sand for the EUR/USD. To be honest the break of this support level is probably a lot to do with the way the Forex markets are operating at the moment. It is obviously very well supported.  I am looking at the range being 1.3680 to 1.3800.\r\n\r\n<b>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.6614.  </b>The cable (GBP/USD) is now under pressure after breaking out last week. It was refused entry above 1.6800 and was dumped down. Some mixed data from the UK has forced it even lower during the week taking the cross rate pairs with it as well. Personally, below 1.6600 I see a re-test of 1.6250 and resistance is really set now at 1.6650 and then 1.6700.\r\n\r\n<b>AUD/USD: Closing Price 0.8978</b>.  The AUD I thought was going to put up the white flag earlier in the week but with equities continuing to grind higher it has remained reasonably well supported. It is not where it should be price wise given that the S &amp; P is hovering around all-time highs but nevertheless it has NOT collapsed. The range that interests me is 0.8950 to 0.9075.\r\n\r\n<b>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8274</b>.  A very similar story with the NZD as it is with the AUD. Support is big at 0.8250 and resistance is excellent at 0.8320.\r\n\r\n<b>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.1107.</b>  Some stellar moves in the CAD and its cross rates during the week and today we pulled back almost 100 pips off the highs. Around this level is a place to establish a long position. The range is 1.1080 to 1.1230.\r\n\r\n<b>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.8879</b>.  I see absolutely no point whatsoever trading this pair. Boring, boring, boring. Wake me up at 0.8800.\r\n\r\n<b>USD/JPY: Closing Price 102.48.  </b>We are still in exactly the same range as last week.  No change in my opinion. I think it’s going lower towards 99.50 before we hit 110.00. The range is 101.50 to 102.80.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">8. MAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:</span></b>\r\n\r\nSUNDAY: N/A\r\n\r\nMONDAY: N/A\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: N/A\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: N/\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: N/A\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: EUR – CPi.\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b>\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">9. FINAL THOUGHTS:</span></b>\r\n\r\nNot much in news events that interest me this week.\r\n\r\nI am expecting the “Chop Fest” to continue and with no major published news that really interests me due to published I think that the forex markets will be in the hands of the equity markets for direction and also “God help us all” the “numpty” politicians claiming their 30 seconds of TV fame with sound- bytes.\r\n\r\nWith that in mind, always remember that there is a market everyday. You do not need to trade everyday to make your financial goals. If it’s too choppy stand aside and in any event take smaller position sizes.\r\n\r\nGood luck and trade within your TRADE PLAN guidelines and most importantly use sound MONEY MANAGEMENT SKILLS to control your risk.\r\n\r\nPLAN YOUR TRADES and TRADE YOUR PLAN.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nSaturday February 22nd 2014\r\n\r\nEMAIL / FOLLOW ME AT:\r\npremiumservice@weeklyfxdrivethru.com\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\nTwitter: @ThePremService\r\n<span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">Google+/scottpickering\r\n</span><span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">StockTwits; thepipaccumulator</span>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','THE MARKET IS A CHOP FEST…HERE ARE SOME THOUGHTS ON SURVIVING:','','inherit','open','closed','','3267-revision-v1','','','2014-02-22 10:21:28','2014-02-22 15:21:28','',3267,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/3267-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(3269,1,'2014-02-22 10:10:16','2014-02-22 15:10:16','<p style=\"text-align: left;\" align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">1. INTRODUCTION:</span></b></p>\r\nDespite the fact I think that in my opinion the Forex market is currently a bit of a chop fest and that it seems to just want to squeeze extremes and exert as much pain as possible to traders, I had from a personal viewpoint my best trading week this year. This week over +500 pips profit again. My absolute $$$ return has me well ahead of my trading plan objective. To place the week in context, most of the pips were generated from related to CAD related trades in one day.\r\n\r\nI do not want to promote “doom and gloom” but I see a period of chop fest intensifying as we move forward and in these situations sometimes your best trade is NOT to trade. I will debate the current market conditions later in this blog.\r\n\r\nThe big news items during the past week regarding the PMi’s in China and Europe plus the FOMC meeting minutes didn’t really move the major pairs out of their trading channels and largely they remained range bound. The big number in the market to trigger moves across the board appears to be the EUR/USD support at 1.3680. If this gives way, and on the day it breaks, we end the day below this level, I believe this will be the catalyst for some bold moves across many currency pairs.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">2. TRADING SUMMARY:</span></b>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">RADAR, FLASH and FUNDAMENTAL TRADES</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">FEBRUARY 2014 and YEAR to date:</span></b></p>\r\nBelow I show the up to date performances for my various trading styles. Full excel spreadsheets area also in the subscriber area of the PREMIUM SERVICE.<b style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b>\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">RADAR TRADES – FEBRUARY 2014:</span></b>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/RADAR-1-22.02.2014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-3262\" alt=\"RADAR 1 22.02.2014\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/RADAR-1-22.02.2014.png\" width=\"543\" height=\"462\" /></a></span></b><b></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/RADAR-2-22.02.2014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-3263\" alt=\"RADAR 2 22.02.2014\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/RADAR-2-22.02.2014.png\" width=\"543\" height=\"477\" /></a></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">PROFITS FROM SINGLE LOT COMPLETED RADAR TRADES:</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x MICRO-LOT:\r\n11 trades at $0.10 cents each = $1.10 risk for $14.80 profit.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x MINI-LOT:\r\n11 trades at $1.00 each = $11.00 risk for $148.00 profit.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x STANDARD LOT:\r\n11 trades at $10.00 each = $110.00 risk for $1,480.00 profit.</p>\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">FLASH TRADES – FEBRUARY 2014:</span></b>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/FLASH-1-22.02.2014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-3264\" alt=\"FLASH 1 22.02.2014\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/FLASH-1-22.02.2014.png\" width=\"477\" height=\"481\" /></a></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/FLASH-2-22.02.2014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-3265\" alt=\"FLASH 2 22.02.2014\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/FLASH-2-22.02.2014.png\" width=\"497\" height=\"488\" /></a></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">PROFITS FROM SINGLE LOT COMPLETED FLASH TRADES:</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x MICRO-LOT:\r\n24 trades at $0.10 cents each = $2.40 cents risk for $59.90 profit.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x MINI-LOT:\r\n24 trades at $1.00 each = $24.00 risk for $599.00 profit.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x STANDARD LOT:\r\n24 trades at $10.00 each = $240.00 risk for $5,990.00 profit.</p>\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">FUNDAMENTAL TRADES – FEBRUARY 2014:</span></b>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/FUNDAMENTAL-22.02.2014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-3266\" alt=\"FUNDAMENTAL 22.02.2014\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/FUNDAMENTAL-22.02.2014.png\" width=\"507\" height=\"519\" /></a></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">PROFITS FROM SINGLE LOT COMPLETED FUNDAMENTAL TRADES:</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x MICRO-LOT:\r\n13 trades at $0.10 cents each = $1.30 cents risk for $16.10 loss.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x MINI-LOT:\r\n13 trades at $1.00 each = $13.00 risk for $161.00 loss.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x STANDARD LOT:\r\n13 trades at $10.00 each = $130.00 risk for $1,610.00 loss</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">COMBINED FLASH, RADAR AND FUNDAMENTAL TRADES PROFIT PERFORMANCE</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">FEBRUARY 2014…SO FAR:</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">TRADING MICRO-LOTS:\r\n48 trades at $0.10 cents each = $4.80 risk for $58.60 profit.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">TRADING MINI-LOTS:\r\n48 trades at $1.00 each = $48.00 risk for $586.00 profit.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">TRADING STANDARD LOTS:\r\n48 trades at $10.00 each = $480.00 risk for $5,860.00 profit.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">COMBINED FLASH, RADAR AND FUNDAMENTAL TRADES PROFIT PERFORMANCE\r\n</span></b><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">TOTAL:  2014…SO FAR:</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">TRADING MICRO-LOTS:\r\n92 trades at $0.10 cents each = $9.20 risk for $137.10 profit.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">TRADING MINI-LOTS:\r\n92 trades at $1.00 each = $92.00 risk for $1,371.00 profit.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">TRADING STANDARD LOTS:\r\n92 trades at $10.00 each = $920.00 risk for $13,710.00 profit.</p>\r\nThe above examples are for illustration purposes only:\r\n\r\nThe profitability examples detailed above are based solely upon single lot trading, regardless of lot type. If multiple lot sizes are traded the profitability margins will be different than those shown.\r\n\r\nJust to provide more information so you understand where I am coming from with the risk / reward statements above. All of my trades are of different sizes and different size lot types. The above does not reflect the actual trading performance. I like to add to trades, profits are taken as the trade progresses and my overall cost average moves several times. All of my trades are of different lot styles. I trade a mixture of micro lots, mini lots and standard lots across my brokers.\r\n\r\nThe above results simply display your profit or loss if you placed a single lot trade on all the set-ups suggested and did nothing else.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">3. THE FUNDAMENTAL TRADERS OVERVIEW:</span></b><b style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\"> </b>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>THE MARKET IS A CHOP FEST…HERE ARE SOME THOUGHTS ON SURVIVING:</b><b style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\"> </b></p>\r\nThe market is what it is.\r\n\r\nAs traders we have to react and trade within what the market does whether we agree with the way the market implements news or reacts to technical levels. This can be a difficult pill to swallow if, like me, you are a fundamental before technical trader.\r\n\r\nThe market is frustrating at the present time, and we seem to be operating in channels that are difficult to trade in. Usually, channel trading is quite straightforward.\r\n\r\nOver the past few years we have lived with and traded currencies within an upward trending equity market scenario. At the end of last year, the FED changed its monetary policy by introducing tapering.\r\n\r\nThis is in itself bound to have an effect.\r\n\r\nInitially, when tapering was talked about it was generally believed that the USD would strengthen hard across the board and equities would fall. To date, this has not happened. Instead, the markets have continued to grind higher and although there are plenty of inter-market correlations that are no longer in sync the predicted USD strength still has not emerged along the lines thought of at the outset of tapering. Market dis-connects continue.\r\n\r\nIn the short to medium term I do believe that a major news event will be the trigger to get the ball moving but until that happens I think we ‘Chop”\r\n\r\nBit by bit the long term effects of Quantitative Easing will be tapered out of the markets and we will spend most of 2014 unwinding. Standing back it makes sense that conditions will be choppy as the Fed monetary policy changes take hold. I think because we live in a “now” society we expect the markets to react instantaneously; but we have to be patient.\r\n\r\nTrader survival is therefore paramount in a “Chop Fest” environment. What are the survival rules to consider?\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li>Risk Management is now even more important than ever. One way to help in this area is to keep your risk tolerance the same but do it by taking smaller positions and widening your stops so that the overall risk is the same but you just have more trading space to deal with volatility.</li>\r\n	<li>\r\nIf you trade Standard lots maybe consider trading Mini lots instead. You can still build up profitable trades by adding multi lots. It also allows you greater flexibility to react to live trades by adding to positions or conversely taking partial position sizes off the table. Obviously, if you trade Mini lots you could consider Micro lots as an option.The bottom line though is smaller positions sizes makes sense in this type of market condition.\r\n\r\nYou can always revert back when the market changes to more trending market.</li>\r\n	<li>To give you an edge when entering trades. The best discipline that I have found is to use a “PULLBACK STRATEGY”. This basically involves waiting for a currency pair to pullback from the direction in which it is trading for maybe 15-30 minutes and then as it resumes it direction again you enter your trade back in the direction of the trend.I use this strategy for about 80% of my FLASH TRADES that are given to subscribers in the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\nEvery trade is a risk. The key is doing everything you can to minimise the risk parameters you have. The “PULLBACK STRATEGY” does this and once you get proficient in adopting it as a trading style it can be used 24 x 7 x 365.</li>\r\n	<li>If you are a very Conservative trader and you do not like the “Chop Fest” - Stop trading…. and stand aside and keep your broker account in $$$. This is a great trading option if you are uncomfortable with present conditions. When I first started trading I was once told sometimes your best trade is the trade you don\'t take.You are not chicken. Your trading style and your TRADING PLAN objectives (This is the discussion topic in TRADER TOPIC’s this week later in the blog), are your own.\r\n\r\nCapital preservation is paramount to success. Without capital you simply cannot trade. The market is cyclical, sometimes just need to be patient and wait to get on board again.</li>\r\n	<li>Basic trading guidelines often go out of the window through trader frustration particularly when, conditions are difficult to read and trends are virtually non-existent.Go back to basics; Remember you sell into strength and you buy into weakness. Buy low and sell high. Review your interpretation of Fibonacci charts and how to use pivot points.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe above are just some very basic thoughts that if adopted should keep your broker accounts with a trading balance.\r\n\r\nI wrote last week about FEAR and GREED and how “twitchy” the markets have become. My comments are still very much relevant this week.\r\n\r\nGood luck with your trading and take care.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">4. TRADER TOPICS:</span></b>\r\n\r\nAs promised several weeks ago, this week the subject of this section is TRADING PLANS. This will be a three-part TRADER TOPIC subject, covering TRADING PLANS as comprehensively as I can.\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">CREATING A TRADING PLAN</span></b></p>\r\nI will be honest; when I started trading I did not have a TRADING PLAN. I really did not see the need for one…I was wrong.\r\n\r\nTrading Forex will be more successful for you as a trader if you have a proper plan in place. The classic quote that is often used when referring to not having a TRADING PLAN is “Failing to plan is planning to fail”\r\n\r\nTrading plans are really a lot like insurance. You don’t usually want it until you’ve faced a catastrophe. But after that catastrophe, which maybe was a huge loss on a single trade, or worse, a margin call from one really bad trade, as a trader you probably recognize that something needs to be done.\r\n\r\nRegardless of how you get there, just the fact that you actually arrive at the destination of realizing that a TRADING PLAN is not just a “nice to have”, but sometimes a necessity, is generally a positive development in the journey / career of a Forex trader.\r\n\r\nThe bottom line is a TRADING PLAN is a must.\r\n\r\nHere is one very basic reason for having a plan: New traders sometimes barely even have the actual reasons for entering a trade. Imagine, that you were planning to loan money to a new business as an investment. Could you picture yourself lending money to a person without a business plan when they said that they were going to start their business based on “their gut?” Obviously no one should ever start a business by relying on his or her gut alone. However, plenty of new traders start trading in exactly that manner.\r\n\r\nSo, what should you include in your TRADING PLAN?\r\n\r\nA very simple approach is to look at it in four sections: WHAT, HOW, WHEN and WHY. My first TRADING PLAN was along these lines and was short and to the point. As time has elapsed since I started trading my own plan has now reached a staggering 21 pages including all inserts on profitability, plus how I trade with my various brokers and then finally my Marketing Plan.\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">WHAT:</span></b><b>  (What type of trader are you?)</b>\r\n\r\nI think that the initial question that you should ask yourself is “What type of trader am I?’ If you are a new trader, you may not know yet, bear in mind the TRADING PLAN is a fluid document for many things. As you develop as a trader your style will become apparent and you can update your plan accordingly.\r\n\r\nThe benefit from knowing what type of trader you are is quite straightforward. Defining what you are gives you a comfort zone. If you take a trade that is outside your definition and it loses money it serves as a reminder to you that you were not trading within your comfort zone.\r\n\r\nThe following is a very simple chart of trader types:\r\n\r\nTRADER TYPE:                    CHARACTERISTICS OF THE TYPE / STYLE:\r\n\r\nSCALPER                             Holds trades for a few minutes to maybe a few hours.\r\n\r\nDAY-TRADER                       Holds trades for less than a day (A bit longer than scalpers).\r\nSWING-TRADER                 Holds trades from a few hours to a few days.\r\n\r\nINTERMEDIATE and\r\n\r\nLONG-TERM TRADERS    Holds trades for at least a day and, possibly months / years.\r\n\r\nPOSITION TRADER            Holds trades as long as needed to build &amp; work a position.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">HOW:</span></b> (<b>How to manage positions / enter and exit trades?)</b>\r\n\r\nThis is a very important part of your TRADING PLAN. Without a definition of “how” the plan is really both useless and pointless.\r\n\r\nIn this section of your TRADING PLAN you should specify how many lots you are going to trade on whatever types of trade that you are going to enter. Additionally, you specify what your risk is per trade. This will obviously be in relation to your account size. The rough rule of thumb in this area is not to risk more than either 0.50%-0.75% of your overall account balance on any one trade. By doing this it tells you basically whether you should be trading Micro, Mini or Standard lots.\r\n\r\nThis section should also contain whether or not you will trade news events and what your risk will be around such events.\r\n\r\nThis area can be as complex or as straightforward as you want it to be. You can use SMA or EMA, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci Levels or Pivot points, whatever you like, whatever is comfortable with your trading style to describe entry / exit parameters to your trading.\r\n\r\nThe benefit of detail in this section, allows you the opportunity to troubleshoot losing trades. More definition definitely means more discipline.\r\n\r\nA very important point here is that the strategy must be your own, what you are comfortable with and not lifted / copied from another source. There is little point me providing a PDF of my TRADING PLAN because each of us is a different type / style of trader.\r\n\r\nThe above TRADER TYPES (In the “What” section) should help you in connection with outlining your “HOW”. The bottom line is to be comfortable as a trader. There is enough stress around trading without you trying to pigeon hole yourself into a type / style of trader that you are not.\r\n\r\nIn my own TRADING PLAN, I highlight definitions of RADAR, FLASH and FUNDAMENTAL trades. I add to this when each style of trade is appropriate and what my entry lot sizes are for each type of trade. I also include when I will add to positions, how I will use the ATR and Hedging on trades.\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">WHEN:</span></b> <b>(When will you trade?)</b>\r\n\r\nThis is the forgotten item in most TRADING PLANS.\r\n\r\nThere is so much flexibility as a Forex trader. The markets are open from 5.00pm Eastern (USA) on a Sunday night and close the following Friday at 5.00pm Eastern (USA). The Forex market moves 24x7\r\n\r\nHaving said that, the one thing that the Forex market thrives on is liquidity, without liquidity driving the market there is either no movement or extreme lack of liquidity movements, which personally drive me crazy.\r\n\r\nThere are principally, three trading sessions: -\r\n\r\nTHE ASIAN SESSION: - The Asian session is more often than not a lot quieter than the London and US sessions. It tends to take its lead from what happened previously in the US session.\r\n\r\nTHE LONDON (EUROPEAN) SESSION: - Liquidity definitely improves as the European markets open. The overlap from the Asian into European sessions is sometimes the most volatile and there are often very fast, very active, very volatile moves that can define momentum moves with currency pairs. As the Asian markets close the European session settles down\r\n\r\nTHE U.S. (AMERICAS) SESSION: - as the US comes on stream the volatility increases once more as the overlap between the European and U.S. traders take hold. I think it is safe to say that from 8.00am to 11.30am Eastern the Forex markets are at their most liquid period of the 24-day.\r\n\r\n(If I had to choose a place to live to be a professional Forex trader…it has to Europe. It is as good as a 12-hour day!!)\r\n\r\nWhen you trade can have a huge influence on your results. It should also define your trading strategy. High volume equals higher risk.\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">WHY:</span></b> <b>(This is where you write out your goals and objectives)</b>\r\n\r\nThis is the final segment and probably the most important of all of them when you look at your TRADING PLAN. Why do you want to be a Forex trader?\r\n\r\nMore time with the family\r\n\r\nor\r\n\r\nFinancial freedom\r\n\r\nTrading is NOT easy. It can be very difficult, and tough, and costly and most of all totally 100% frustrating at times.\r\n\r\nCommon sense does NOT always apply. The markets are what they are, not what you want them to be, or think they should be. Set your financial objectives conservatively. I was told that a target of 1% - 2% of your account balance per day is good (Personally, I target 1% per day). Maximum trade size should not see you risk more than 0.50%-0.75% of your account balance.\r\n\r\nBreak down your income objectives to daily targets and build up to weekly and monthly goals. Create an excel spreadsheet that you can follow and use to check performance. You must journal <b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">ALL</span></b> your trades (Entry, Exit, was it a Market order, or a Limit order, time of day trade placed or triggered, position size etc.).\r\n\r\nI created a mini marketing document this year with detailed goals and objectives. I set out at the beginning of 2014 certain thoughts and views on how the markets would perform. This is part of my FUNDAMENTAL overview contained in my TRADING PLAN. This year for me it is a substantial document.\r\n\r\nA TRADING PLAN is NOT something you do and then file away, it should be referred to regularly to check and test your strategies and objectives; in essence a “fluid” working document.\r\n\r\nThere are great opportunities in trading currencies. You just have to be realistic and set your financial goals to be achievable bearing in mind how you trade, when you trade and how much capital you are risking.\r\n\r\nThe “WHY” serves as a reminder as to why you are prepared to go through the pain when times get difficult? The WHY helps put things in perspective relative to the bigger picture?\r\n\r\nIf you find it totally frustrating trying to achieve the goals that you set yourself personally and financially you have to re-evaluate.\r\n\r\nAre you goals realistic?\r\n\r\nAre you following your plan?\r\n\r\nLooking at your results versus your plan allows a complete diagnosis of your performance.\r\n\r\nEither you inject some self-discipline and move forward, or, you quit trading. In my opinion and this is the hardest lesson that I have had to learn, there are three things when trading that you must use everyday: -\r\n\r\n1. DISCIPLINE\r\n2. DISCIPLINE\r\n<span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">3. DISCIPLINE</span>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">5. MY CURRENT LIVE TRADES:</span></b>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">FLASH TRADES:</span></b></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"> FT37\r\nEUR/USD\r\nShort\r\nCost Average: 1.3712\r\nStop Loss: 1.3962\r\nLimit / Target: 1.2760\r\nMy Position Size: 20%\r\nClosing Weekly Position: 1.3738\r\n<span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">My present Profit/Loss position:  - 26pips</span></p>\r\nI have changed my perspective on this trade. I took profits off the table on Thursday morning last week and having re-evaluated this trade I have now decided that this is in real terms a FUNDAMENTAL trade.\r\n\r\nBasically, I believe that the EUROZONE is another accident away from a crisis. I think that Janet Yellen is more Hawkish than Dovish and I do believe that the ECB through Draghi has to accommodate more and the possibility of negative deposit rates is only a matter of when not if. Plus full-blown QE is NOT off the table.\r\n\r\nWith this in my mind I am bullish the USD and bearish the EUR in the longer term.\r\n\r\nThe Monthly chart below shows the long-term wedge that the EUR/USD is trading in. I do think that in two / three months we will be trading much lower so ergo  I am in this trade.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/EURUSD-MONTHLY-22.02.2014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-3253\" alt=\"EURUSD MONTHLY 22.02.2014\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/EURUSD-MONTHLY-22.02.2014-1024x522.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"522\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">RADAR TRADES: </span></b></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">RT39\r\nEUR/GBP\r\nShort\r\nCost Average: 0.8224\r\nStop Loss: 0.8308\r\nLimit / Target: 0.8000\r\nMy Position Size: 20%\r\nClosing Weekly Position: 0.8268\r\n<span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">My present Profit/Loss position:  - 34pips</span></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">For the same reasons as the EUR/USD above I am happy to stay short this pair.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">FUNDAMENTAL TRADES:</span></b></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">I have no “LIVE” FUNDAMENTAL trades at this time.<b></b></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b></p>\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">6. TRADES THAT ARE ON MY RADAR:</span></b>\r\n\r\nI have the following RADAR trade in position with my brokers.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">USD/CHF\r\nLong\r\nEntry Level: 0.8000\r\nStop Loss: 0.8750\r\nLimit / Target: 0.9250</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"> The following RADAR trades are not yet placed with brokers. It is my intention to do this either at the market open (Sunday evening) or Monday morning after the European session. I will advise when they are placed via Twitter.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">AUD/USD\r\nShort\r\nEntry Level: 0.9010\r\nStop Loss: 0.9085\r\nLimit / Target: 0.8500</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">USD/SEK\r\nLong\r\nEntry Level: 6.6000\r\nStop Loss: 6.4500\r\nLimit / Target: 6.8000</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">USD/CAD\r\nLong\r\nEntry Level 1.1080\r\nStop Loss 1.1040\r\nLimit / Target 1.1250</p>\r\nFUNDAMENTAL TRADES ON MY RADAR\r\n\r\nThe Cross rate commodity pairs that I love to trade are basically breaking out and I need pullbacks to give me entry set-ups. I am not going to list out the stops and targets this week but basic entry levels, with comments that MAY get me looking to enter long. I have also included monthly charts with Fibonacci levels and key levels where applicable.\r\n\r\nPlease bear in mind these trades are MICRO LOTS to start with and only upon taking shape with momentum in my direction will I add further lots to increase my position size. These currency pairs are wild and volatile. If you cannot cope with extreme volatility and moves that do not make sense at times I suggest that you ignore these trades.\r\n\r\nEUR/AUD:\r\nThe risk with this currency pair is still 1.5000. In fact I believe if you were going to take this trade long, the risk is a pullback to 1.4900. Entry levels need to be with a deep pullback from existing levels, maybe 1.5200.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/EURAUD-MONTHLY-22.02.2014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-3254\" alt=\"EURAUD MONTHLY 22.02.2014\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/EURAUD-MONTHLY-22.02.2014-1024x522.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"522\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/AUD:\r\nI think the risk level with this pair should be 1.8200. GBP is very bullish and I think that the 61.8% Fibonacci is calling at 1.9215.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/GBPAUD-MONTHLY-22.02.2014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-3256\" alt=\"GBPAUD MONTHLY 22.02.2014\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/GBPAUD-MONTHLY-22.02.2014-1024x522.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"522\" /></a>\r\n\r\nEUR/NZD:\r\n\r\nThe break out level at 1.6800 beckons all traders. This pair really moves and I think if you were really taking a longer-term view the monthly ATR is about 800 pips and so the risk at 1.6000, makes this a very costly trade if you are not in profit almost immediately. Swap rates are high. I would be looking at a risk / stop loss of about 1.6400 from present levels. That level of 1.64000 would make a great entry level with 1.6000 as the stop loss, if we can get the pullback.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/EURNZD-MONTHLY-22.02.2014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-3257\" alt=\"EURNZD MONTHLY 22.02.2014\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/EURNZD-MONTHLY-22.02.2014-1024x522.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"522\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/NZD:\r\n\r\nThis pair has broken out above 2.0000. There are great opportunities with this pair to the upside. 1.9700-1.9800 represents the stop loss area and the upside could be anything from 500 pips to 5,000 pips.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/GBPNZD-MONTHLY-22.02.2014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-3258\" alt=\"GBPNZD MONTHLY 22.02.2014\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/GBPNZD-MONTHLY-22.02.2014-1024x522.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"522\" /></a>\r\n\r\nEUR/CAD:\r\n\r\nAn extremely bullish pair; entry can only really be on a pullback. Levels do not really apply as we are in a breakout above the 52 week high. 1.5150 looks good (this was the pullback level earlier last week after the 1.5200 break higher) to me as an entry, with a stop below 1.5000 (only dealing in round numbers)\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/EURCAD-MONTHLY-22.02.2014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-3259\" alt=\"EURCAD MONTHLY 22.02.2014\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/EURCAD-MONTHLY-22.02.2014-1024x522.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"522\" /></a>\r\n\r\nGBP/CAD:\r\n\r\nWith the GBP being quite well supported and CAD being weak, this pair can run! Entries around 1.8400 look good with stops at 1.7980 (this was previous sticking level)\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/GBPCAD-MONTHLY-22.02.2014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-3260\" alt=\"GBPCAD MONTHLY 22.02.2014\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/GBPCAD-MONTHLY-22.02.2014-1024x522.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"522\" /></a></span></b>\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">7. LOOKING FORWARD…THE KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS:</span></b>\r\n\r\n<b>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3738.</b>  All eyes are on 1.3680 as the bull / bear line in the sand for the EUR/USD. To be honest the break of this support level is probably a lot to do with the way the Forex markets are operating at the moment. It is obviously very well supported.  I am looking at the range being 1.3680 to 1.3800.\r\n\r\n<b>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.6614.  </b>The cable (GBP/USD) is now under pressure after breaking out last week. It was refused entry above 1.6800 and was dumped down. Some mixed data from the UK has forced it even lower during the week taking the cross rate pairs with it as well. Personally, below 1.6600 I see a re-test of 1.6250 and resistance is really set now at 1.6650 and then 1.6700.\r\n\r\n<b>AUD/USD: Closing Price 0.8978</b>.  The AUD I thought was going to put up the white flag earlier in the week but with equities continuing to grind higher it has remained reasonably well supported. It is not where it should be price wise given that the S &amp; P is hovering around all-time highs but nevertheless it has NOT collapsed. The range that interests me is 0.8950 to 0.9075.\r\n\r\n<b>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8274</b>.  A very similar story with the NZD as it is with the AUD. Support is big at 0.8250 and resistance is excellent at 0.8320.\r\n\r\n<b>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.1107.</b>  Some stellar moves in the CAD and its cross rates during the week and today we pulled back almost 100 pips off the highs. Around this level is a place to establish a long position. The range is 1.1080 to 1.1230.\r\n\r\n<b>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.8879</b>.  I see absolutely no point whatsoever trading this pair. Boring, boring, boring. Wake me up at 0.8800.\r\n\r\n<b>USD/JPY: Closing Price 102.48.  </b>We are still in exactly the same range as last week.  No change in my opinion. I think it’s going lower towards 99.50 before we hit 110.00. The range is 101.50 to 102.80.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">8. MAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:</span></b>\r\n\r\nSUNDAY: N/A\r\n\r\nMONDAY: N/A\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: N/A\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: N/\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: N/A\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: EUR – CPi.\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b>\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">9. FINAL THOUGHTS:</span></b>\r\n\r\nNot much in news events that interest me this week.\r\n\r\nI am expecting the “Chop Fest” to continue and with no major published news that really interests me due to published I think that the forex markets will be in the hands of the equity markets for direction and also “God help us all” the “numpty” politicians claiming their 30 seconds of TV fame with sound- bytes.\r\n\r\nWith that in mind, always remember that there is a market everyday. You do not need to trade everyday to make your financial goals. If it’s too choppy stand aside and in any event take smaller position sizes.\r\n\r\nGood luck and trade within your TRADE PLAN guidelines and most importantly use sound MONEY MANAGEMENT SKILLS to control your risk.\r\n\r\nPLAN YOUR TRADES and TRADE YOUR PLAN.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nSaturday February 22nd 2014\r\n\r\nEMAIL / FOLLOW ME AT:\r\npremiumservice@weeklyfxdrivethru.com\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\nTwitter: @ThePremService\r\n<span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">Google+/scottpickering\r\n</span><span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">StockTwits; thepipaccumulator</span>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','THE MARKET IS A CHOP FEST…HERE ARE SOME THOUGHTS ON SURVIVING:','','inherit','open','closed','','3267-revision-v1','','','2014-02-22 10:10:16','2014-02-22 15:10:16','',3267,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/3267-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(3268,1,'2014-02-22 10:06:09','2014-02-22 15:06:09','<p style=\"text-align: left;\" align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">1. INTRODUCTION:</span></b></p>\r\nDespite the fact I think that currently the Forex market is currently a bit of a chop fest and that it seems to just want to squeeze extremes and exert as much pain as possible to traders, I had from a personal viewpoint my best trading week this year. This week over +500 pips profit again. My absolute $$$ return has me well ahead of my trading plan objective. To place the week in context, most of the pips were generated from related to CAD related trades in one day.\r\n\r\nI do not want to promote “doom and gloom” but I see a period of chop fest intensifying as we move forward and in these situations sometimes your best trade is NOT to trade. I will debate the current market conditions later in this blog.\r\n\r\nThe big news items during the past week regarding the PMi’s in China and Europe plus the FOMC meeting minutes didn’t really move the major pairs out of their trading channels and largely they remained range bound. The big number in the market to trigger moves across the board appears to be the EUR/USD support at 1.3680. If this gives way, and on the day it breaks, we end the day below this level, I believe this will be the catalyst for some bold moves across many currency pairs.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">2. TRADING SUMMARY:</span></b>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">RADAR, FLASH and FUNDAMENTAL TRADES</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">FEBRUARY 2014 and YEAR to date:</span></b></p>\r\nBelow I show the up to date performances for my various trading styles. Full excel spreadsheets area also in the subscriber area of the PREMIUM SERVICE.<b style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b>\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">RADAR TRADES – FEBRUARY 2014:</span></b>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/RADAR-1-22.02.2014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-3262\" alt=\"RADAR 1 22.02.2014\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/RADAR-1-22.02.2014.png\" width=\"543\" height=\"462\" /></a></span></b><b></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/RADAR-2-22.02.2014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-3263\" alt=\"RADAR 2 22.02.2014\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/RADAR-2-22.02.2014.png\" width=\"543\" height=\"477\" /></a></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">PROFITS FROM SINGLE LOT COMPLETED RADAR TRADES:</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x MICRO-LOT:\r\n11 trades at $0.10 cents each = $1.10 risk for $14.80 profit.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x MINI-LOT:\r\n11 trades at $1.00 each = $11.00 risk for $148.00 profit.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x STANDARD LOT:\r\n11 trades at $10.00 each = $110.00 risk for $1,480.00 profit.</p>\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">FLASH TRADES – FEBRUARY 2014:</span></b>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/FLASH-1-22.02.2014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-3264\" alt=\"FLASH 1 22.02.2014\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/FLASH-1-22.02.2014.png\" width=\"477\" height=\"481\" /></a></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/FLASH-2-22.02.2014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-3265\" alt=\"FLASH 2 22.02.2014\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/FLASH-2-22.02.2014.png\" width=\"497\" height=\"488\" /></a></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">PROFITS FROM SINGLE LOT COMPLETED FLASH TRADES:</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x MICRO-LOT:\r\n24 trades at $0.10 cents each = $2.40 cents risk for $59.90 profit.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x MINI-LOT:\r\n24 trades at $1.00 each = $24.00 risk for $599.00 profit.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x STANDARD LOT:\r\n24 trades at $10.00 each = $240.00 risk for $5,990.00 profit.</p>\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">FUNDAMENTAL TRADES – FEBRUARY 2014:</span></b>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/FUNDAMENTAL-22.02.2014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-3266\" alt=\"FUNDAMENTAL 22.02.2014\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/FUNDAMENTAL-22.02.2014.png\" width=\"507\" height=\"519\" /></a></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">PROFITS FROM SINGLE LOT COMPLETED FUNDAMENTAL TRADES:</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x MICRO-LOT:\r\n13 trades at $0.10 cents each = $1.30 cents risk for $16.10 loss.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x MINI-LOT:\r\n13 trades at $1.00 each = $13.00 risk for $161.00 loss.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x STANDARD LOT:\r\n13 trades at $10.00 each = $130.00 risk for $1,610.00 loss</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">COMBINED FLASH, RADAR AND FUNDAMENTAL TRADES PROFIT PERFORMANCE</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">FEBRUARY 2014…SO FAR:</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">TRADING MICRO-LOTS:\r\n48 trades at $0.10 cents each = $4.80 risk for $58.60 profit.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">TRADING MINI-LOTS:\r\n48 trades at $1.00 each = $48.00 risk for $586.00 profit.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">TRADING STANDARD LOTS:\r\n48 trades at $10.00 each = $480.00 risk for $5,860.00 profit.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">COMBINED FLASH, RADAR AND FUNDAMENTAL TRADES PROFIT PERFORMANCE\r\n</span></b><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">TOTAL:  2014…SO FAR:</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">TRADING MICRO-LOTS:\r\n92 trades at $0.10 cents each = $9.20 risk for $137.10 profit.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">TRADING MINI-LOTS:\r\n92 trades at $1.00 each = $92.00 risk for $1,371.00 profit.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">TRADING STANDARD LOTS:\r\n92 trades at $10.00 each = $920.00 risk for $13,710.00 profit.</p>\r\nThe above examples are for illustration purposes only:\r\n\r\nThe profitability examples detailed above are based solely upon single lot trading, regardless of lot type. If multiple lot sizes are traded the profitability margins will be different than those shown.\r\n\r\nJust to provide more information so you understand where I am coming from with the risk / reward statements above. All of my trades are of different sizes and different size lot types. The above does not reflect the actual trading performance. I like to add to trades, profits are taken as the trade progresses and my overall cost average moves several times. All of my trades are of different lot styles. I trade a mixture of micro lots, mini lots and standard lots across my brokers.\r\n\r\nThe above results simply display your profit or loss if you placed a single lot trade on all the set-ups suggested and did nothing else.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">3. THE FUNDAMENTAL TRADERS OVERVIEW:</span></b><b style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\"> </b>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>THE MARKET IS A CHOP FEST…HERE ARE SOME THOUGHTS ON SURVIVING:</b><b style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\"> </b></p>\r\nThe market is what it is.\r\n\r\nAs traders we have to react and trade within what the market does whether we agree with the way the market implements news or reacts to technical levels. This can be a difficult pill to swallow if, like me, you are a fundamental before technical trader.\r\n\r\nThe market is frustrating at the present time, and we seem to be operating in channels that are difficult to trade in. Usually, channel trading is quite straightforward.\r\n\r\nOver the past few years we have lived with and traded currencies within an upward trending equity market scenario. At the end of last year, the FED changed its monetary policy by introducing tapering.\r\n\r\nThis is in itself bound to have an effect.\r\n\r\nInitially, when tapering was talked about it was generally believed that the USD would strengthen hard across the board and equities would fall. To date, this has not happened. Instead, the markets have continued to grind higher and although there are plenty of inter-market correlations that are no longer in sync the predicted USD strength still has not emerged along the lines thought of at the outset of tapering. Market dis-connects continue.\r\n\r\nIn the short to medium term I do believe that a major news event will be the trigger to get the ball moving but until that happens I think we ‘Chop”\r\n\r\nBit by bit the long term effects of Quantitative Easing will be tapered out of the markets and we will spend most of 2014 unwinding. Standing back it makes sense that conditions will be choppy as the Fed monetary policy changes take hold. I think because we live in a “now” society we expect the markets to react instantaneously; but we have to be patient.\r\n\r\nTrader survival is therefore paramount in a “Chop Fest” environment. What are the survival rules to consider?\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li>Risk Management is now even more important than ever. One way to help in this area is to keep your risk tolerance the same but do it by taking smaller positions and widening your stops so that the overall risk is the same but you just have more trading space to deal with volatility.</li>\r\n	<li>If you trade Standard lots maybe consider trading Mini lots instead. You can still build up profitable trades by adding multi lots. It also allows you greater flexibility to react to live trades by adding to positions or conversely taking partial position sizes off the table. Obviously, if you trade Mini lots you could consider Micro lots as an option.\r\n\r\nThe bottom line though is smaller positions sizes makes sense in this type of market condition.\r\n\r\nYou can always revert back when the market changes to more trending market.</li>\r\n	<li>To give you an edge when entering trades. The best discipline that I have found is to use a “PULLBACK STRATEGY”. This basically involves waiting for a currency pair to pullback from the direction in which it is trading for maybe 15-30 minutes and then as it resumes it direction again you enter your trade back in the direction of the trend.\r\n\r\nI use this strategy for about 80% of my FLASH TRADES that are given to subscribers in the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\nEvery trade is a risk. The key is doing everything you can to minimise the risk parameters you have. The “PULLBACK STRATEGY” does this and once you get proficient in adopting it as a trading style it can be used 24 x 7 x 365.</li>\r\n	<li>If you are a very Conservative trader and you do not like the “Chop Fest” - Stop trading…. and stand aside and keep your broker account in $$$. This is a great trading option if you are uncomfortable with present conditions. When I first started trading I was once told sometimes your best trade is the trade you don\'t take.\r\n\r\nYou are not chicken. Your trading style and your TRADING PLAN objectives (This is the discussion topic in TRADER TOPIC’s this week later in the blog), are your own.\r\n\r\nCapital preservation is paramount to success. Without capital you simply cannot trade. The market is cyclical, sometimes just need to be patient and wait to get on board again.</li>\r\n	<li>Basic trading guidelines often go out of the window through trader frustration particularly when, conditions are difficult to read and trends are virtually non-existent.\r\n\r\nGo back to basics; Remember you sell into strength and you buy into weakness. Buy low and sell high. Review your interpretation of Fibonacci charts and how to use pivot points.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe above are just some very basic thoughts that if adopted should keep your broker accounts with a trading balance.\r\n\r\nI wrote last week about FEAR and GREED and how “twitchy” the markets have become. My comments are still very much relevant this week.\r\n\r\nGood luck with your trading and take care.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">4. TRADER TOPICS:</span></b>\r\n\r\nAs promised several weeks ago, this week the subject of this section is TRADING PLANS. This will be a three-part TRADER TOPIC subject, covering TRADING PLANS as comprehensively as I can.\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">CREATING A TRADING PLAN</span></b></p>\r\nI will be honest; when I started trading I did not have a TRADING PLAN. I really did not see the need for one…I was wrong.\r\n\r\nTrading Forex will be more successful for you as a trader if you have a proper plan in place. The classic quote that is often used when referring to not having a TRADING PLAN is “Failing to plan is planning to fail”\r\n\r\nTrading plans are really a lot like insurance. You don’t usually want it until you’ve faced a catastrophe. But after that catastrophe, which maybe was a huge loss on a single trade, or worse, a margin call from one really bad trade, as a trader you probably recognize that something needs to be done.\r\n\r\nRegardless of how you get there, just the fact that you actually arrive at the destination of realizing that a TRADING PLAN is not just a “nice to have”, but sometimes a necessity, is generally a positive development in the journey / career of a Forex trader.\r\n\r\nThe bottom line is a TRADING PLAN is a must.\r\n\r\nHere is one very basic reason for having a plan: New traders sometimes barely even have the actual reasons for entering a trade. Imagine, that you were planning to loan money to a new business as an investment. Could you picture yourself lending money to a person without a business plan when they said that they were going to start their business based on “their gut?” Obviously no one should ever start a business by relying on his or her gut alone. However, plenty of new traders start trading in exactly that manner.\r\n\r\nSo, what should you include in your TRADING PLAN?\r\n\r\nA very simple approach is to look at it in four sections: WHAT, HOW, WHEN and WHY. My first TRADING PLAN was along these lines and was short and to the point. As time has elapsed since I started trading my own plan has now reached a staggering 21 pages including all inserts on profitability, plus how I trade with my various brokers and then finally my Marketing Plan.\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">WHAT:</span></b><b>  (What type of trader are you?)</b>\r\n\r\nI think that the initial question that you should ask yourself is “What type of trader am I?’ If you are a new trader, you may not know yet, bear in mind the TRADING PLAN is a fluid document for many things. As you develop as a trader your style will become apparent and you can update your plan accordingly.\r\n\r\nThe benefit from knowing what type of trader you are is quite straightforward. Defining what you are gives you a comfort zone. If you take a trade that is outside your definition and it loses money it serves as a reminder to you that you were not trading within your comfort zone.\r\n\r\nThe following is a very simple chart of trader types:\r\n\r\nTRADER TYPE:                    CHARACTERISTICS OF THE TYPE / STYLE:\r\n\r\nSCALPER                             Holds trades for a few minutes to maybe a few hours.\r\n\r\nDAY-TRADER                       Holds trades for less than a day (A bit longer than scalpers).\r\nSWING-TRADER                 Holds trades from a few hours to a few days.\r\n\r\nINTERMEDIATE and\r\n\r\nLONG-TERM TRADERS    Holds trades for at least a day and, possibly months / years.\r\n\r\nPOSITION TRADER            Holds trades as long as needed to build &amp; work a position.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">HOW:</span></b> (<b>How to manage positions / enter and exit trades?)</b>\r\n\r\nThis is a very important part of your TRADING PLAN. Without a definition of “how” the plan is really both useless and pointless.\r\n\r\nIn this section of your TRADING PLAN you should specify how many lots you are going to trade on whatever types of trade that you are going to enter. Additionally, you specify what your risk is per trade. This will obviously be in relation to your account size. The rough rule of thumb in this area is not to risk more than either 0.50%-0.75% of your overall account balance on any one trade. By doing this it tells you basically whether you should be trading Micro, Mini or Standard lots.\r\n\r\nThis section should also contain whether or not you will trade news events and what your risk will be around such events.\r\n\r\nThis area can be as complex or as straightforward as you want it to be. You can use SMA or EMA, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci Levels or Pivot points, whatever you like, whatever is comfortable with your trading style to describe entry / exit parameters to your trading.\r\n\r\nThe benefit of detail in this section, allows you the opportunity to troubleshoot losing trades. More definition definitely means more discipline.\r\n\r\nA very important point here is that the strategy must be your own, what you are comfortable with and not lifted / copied from another source. There is little point me providing a PDF of my TRADING PLAN because each of us is a different type / style of trader.\r\n\r\nThe above TRADER TYPES (In the “What” section) should help you in connection with outlining your “HOW”. The bottom line is to be comfortable as a trader. There is enough stress around trading without you trying to pigeon hole yourself into a type / style of trader that you are not.\r\n\r\nIn my own TRADING PLAN, I highlight definitions of RADAR, FLASH and FUNDAMENTAL trades. I add to this when each style of trade is appropriate and what my entry lot sizes are for each type of trade. I also include when I will add to positions, how I will use the ATR and Hedging on trades.\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">WHEN:</span></b> <b>(When will you trade?)</b>\r\n\r\nThis is the forgotten item in most TRADING PLANS.\r\n\r\nThere is so much flexibility as a Forex trader. The markets are open from 5.00pm Eastern (USA) on a Sunday night and close the following Friday at 5.00pm Eastern (USA). The Forex market moves 24x7\r\n\r\nHaving said that, the one thing that the Forex market thrives on is liquidity, without liquidity driving the market there is either no movement or extreme lack of liquidity movements, which personally drive me crazy.\r\n\r\nThere are principally, three trading sessions: -\r\n\r\nTHE ASIAN SESSION: - The Asian session is more often than not a lot quieter than the London and US sessions. It tends to take its lead from what happened previously in the US session.\r\n\r\nTHE LONDON (EUROPEAN) SESSION: - Liquidity definitely improves as the European markets open. The overlap from the Asian into European sessions is sometimes the most volatile and there are often very fast, very active, very volatile moves that can define momentum moves with currency pairs. As the Asian markets close the European session settles down\r\n\r\nTHE U.S. (AMERICAS) SESSION: - as the US comes on stream the volatility increases once more as the overlap between the European and U.S. traders take hold. I think it is safe to say that from 8.00am to 11.30am Eastern the Forex markets are at their most liquid period of the 24-day.\r\n\r\n(If I had to choose a place to live to be a professional Forex trader…it has to Europe. It is as good as a 12-hour day!!)\r\n\r\nWhen you trade can have a huge influence on your results. It should also define your trading strategy. High volume equals higher risk.\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">WHY:</span></b> <b>(This is where you write out your goals and objectives)</b>\r\n\r\nThis is the final segment and probably the most important of all of them when you look at your TRADING PLAN. Why do you want to be a Forex trader?\r\n\r\nMore time with the family\r\n\r\nor\r\n\r\nFinancial freedom\r\n\r\nTrading is NOT easy. It can be very difficult, and tough, and costly and most of all totally 100% frustrating at times.\r\n\r\nCommon sense does NOT always apply. The markets are what they are, not what you want them to be, or think they should be. Set your financial objectives conservatively. I was told that a target of 1% - 2% of your account balance per day is good (Personally, I target 1% per day). Maximum trade size should not see you risk more than 0.50%-0.75% of your account balance.\r\n\r\nBreak down your income objectives to daily targets and build up to weekly and monthly goals. Create an excel spreadsheet that you can follow and use to check performance. You must journal <b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">ALL</span></b> your trades (Entry, Exit, was it a Market order, or a Limit order, time of day trade placed or triggered, position size etc.).\r\n\r\nI created a mini marketing document this year with detailed goals and objectives. I set out at the beginning of 2014 certain thoughts and views on how the markets would perform. This is part of my FUNDAMENTAL overview contained in my TRADING PLAN. This year for me it is a substantial document.\r\n\r\nA TRADING PLAN is NOT something you do and then file away, it should be referred to regularly to check and test your strategies and objectives; in essence a “fluid” working document.\r\n\r\nThere are great opportunities in trading currencies. You just have to be realistic and set your financial goals to be achievable bearing in mind how you trade, when you trade and how much capital you are risking.\r\n\r\nThe “WHY” serves as a reminder as to why you are prepared to go through the pain when times get difficult? The WHY helps put things in perspective relative to the bigger picture?\r\n\r\nIf you find it totally frustrating trying to achieve the goals that you set yourself personally and financially you have to re-evaluate.\r\n\r\nAre you goals realistic?\r\n\r\nAre you following your plan?\r\n\r\nLooking at your results versus your plan allows a complete diagnosis of your performance.\r\n\r\nEither you inject some self-discipline and move forward, or, you quit trading. In my opinion and this is the hardest lesson that I have had to learn, there are three things when trading that you must use everyday: -\r\n\r\n1. DISCIPLINE\r\n2. DISCIPLINE\r\n<span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">3. DISCIPLINE</span>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">5. MY CURRENT LIVE TRADES:</span></b>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">FLASH TRADES:</span></b></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"> FT37\r\nEUR/USD\r\nShort\r\nCost Average: 1.3712\r\nStop Loss: 1.3962\r\nLimit / Target: 1.2760\r\nMy Position Size: 20%\r\nClosing Weekly Position: 1.3738\r\n<span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">My present Profit/Loss position:  - 26pips</span></p>\r\nI have changed my perspective on this trade. I took profits off the table on Thursday morning last week and having re-evaluated this trade I have now decided that this is in real terms a FUNDAMENTAL trade.\r\n\r\nBasically, I believe that the EURZONE is another accident away from a crisis. I think that Janet Yellen is more Hawkish than Dovish and I do believe that the ECB through Draghi has to accommodate more and the possibility of negative deposit rates is only a matter of when not if. Plus full-blown QE is NOT off the table.\r\n\r\nWith this in my mind I am bullish the USD and bearish the EUR in the longer term.\r\n\r\nThe Monthly chart below shows the long-term wedge that the EUR/USD is trading in. I do think that in two / three months we will be trading much lower so ergo  I am in this trade.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/EURUSD-MONTHLY-22.02.2014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-3253\" alt=\"EURUSD MONTHLY 22.02.2014\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/EURUSD-MONTHLY-22.02.2014-1024x522.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"522\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">RADAR TRADES: </span></b></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">RT39\r\nEUR/GBP\r\nShortCost Average: 0.8224\r\nStop Loss: 0.8308\r\nLimit / Target: 0.8000\r\nMy Position Size: 20%\r\nClosing Weekly Position: 0.8268\r\n<span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">My present Profit/Loss position:  - 34pips</span></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">For the same reasons as the EURUSD above I am happy to stay short this pair.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">FUNDAMENTAL TRADES:</span></b></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">I have no “LIVE” FUNDAMENTAL trades at this time.<b></b></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b></p>\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">6. TRADES THAT ARE ON MY RADAR:</span></b>\r\n\r\nI have the following RADAR trade in position with my brokers.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">USD/CHF\r\nLong\r\nEntry Level: 0.8000\r\nStop Loss: 0.8750\r\nLimit / Target: 0.9250</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"> The following RADAR trades are not yet placed with brokers. It is my intention to do this either at the market open (Sunday evening) or Monday morning after the European session. I will advise when they are placed via Twitter.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">AUD/USD\r\nShort\r\nEntry Level: 0.9010\r\nStop Loss: 0.9085\r\nLimit / Target: 0.8500\r\n\r\nUSD/SEK\r\nLong\r\nEntry Level: 6.6000\r\nStop Loss: 6.4500\r\nLimit / Target: 6.8000\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD\r\nLong\r\nEntry Level 1.1080\r\nStop Loss 1.1040\r\nLimit / Target 1.1250</p>\r\nFUNDAMENTAL TRADES ON MY RADAR\r\n\r\nThe Cross rate commodity pairs that I love to trade are basically breaking out and I need pullbacks to give me entry set-ups. I am not going to list out the stops and targets this week but basic entry levels, with comments that MAY get me looking to enter long. I have also included monthly charts with Fibonacci levels and key levels where applicable.\r\n\r\nPlease bear in mind these trades are MICRO LOTS to start with and only upon taking shape with momentum in my direction will I add further lots to increase my position size. These currency pairs are wild and volatile. If you cannot cope with extreme volatility and moves that do not make sense at times I suggest that you ignore these trades.\r\n\r\nEUR/AUD:\r\nThe risk with this currency pair is still 1.5000. In fact I believe if you were going to take this trade long, the risk is a pullback to 1.4900. Entry levels need to be with a deep pullback from existing levels, maybe 1.5200.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/EURAUD-MONTHLY-22.02.2014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-3254\" alt=\"EURAUD MONTHLY 22.02.2014\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/EURAUD-MONTHLY-22.02.2014-1024x522.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"522\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/AUD:\r\nI think the risk level with this pair should be 1.8200. GBP is very bullish and I think that the 61.8% Fibonacci is calling at 1.9215.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/GBPAUD-MONTHLY-22.02.2014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-3256\" alt=\"GBPAUD MONTHLY 22.02.2014\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/GBPAUD-MONTHLY-22.02.2014-1024x522.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"522\" /></a>\r\n\r\nEUR/NZD:\r\n\r\nThe break out level at 1.6800 beckons all traders. This pair really moves and I think if you were really taking a longer-term view the monthly ATR is about 800 pips and so the risk at 1.6000, makes this a very costly trade if you are not in profit almost immediately. Swap rates are high. I would be looking at a risk / stop loss of about 1.6400 from present levels. That level of 1.64000 would make a great entry level with 1.6000 as the stop loss, if we can get the pullback.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/EURNZD-MONTHLY-22.02.2014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-3257\" alt=\"EURNZD MONTHLY 22.02.2014\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/EURNZD-MONTHLY-22.02.2014-1024x522.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"522\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/NZD:\r\n\r\nThis pair has broken out above 2.0000. There are great opportunities with this pair to the upside. 1.9700-1.9800 represents the stop loss area and the upside could be anything from 500 pips to 5,000 pips.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/GBPNZD-MONTHLY-22.02.2014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-3258\" alt=\"GBPNZD MONTHLY 22.02.2014\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/GBPNZD-MONTHLY-22.02.2014-1024x522.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"522\" /></a>\r\n\r\nEUR/CAD:\r\n\r\nAn extremely bullish pair; entry can only really be on a pullback. Levels do not really apply as we are in a breakout above the 52 week high. 1.5150 looks good (this was the pullback level earlier last week after the 1.5200 break higher) to me as an entry, with a stop below 1.5000 (only dealing in round numbers)\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/EURCAD-MONTHLY-22.02.2014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-3259\" alt=\"EURCAD MONTHLY 22.02.2014\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/EURCAD-MONTHLY-22.02.2014-1024x522.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"522\" /></a>\r\n\r\nGBP/CAD:\r\n\r\nWith the GBP being quite well supported and CAD being weak, this pair can run! Entries around 1.8400 look good with stops at 1.7980 (this was previous sticking level)\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/GBPCAD-MONTHLY-22.02.2014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-3260\" alt=\"GBPCAD MONTHLY 22.02.2014\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/GBPCAD-MONTHLY-22.02.2014-1024x522.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"522\" /></a></span></b>\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">7. LOOKING FORWARD…THE KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS:</span></b>\r\n\r\n<b>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3738.</b>  All eyes are on 1.3680 as the bull / bear line in the sand for the EUR/USD. To be honest the break of this support level is probably a lot to do with the way the Forex markets are operating at the moment. It is obviously very well supported.  I am looking at the range being 1.3680 to 1.3800.\r\n\r\n<b>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.6614.  </b>The cable (GBP/USD) is now under pressure after breaking out last week. It was refused entry above 1.6800 and was dumped down. Some mixed data from the UK has forced it even lower during the week taking the cross rate pairs with it as well. Personally, below 1.6600 I see a re-test of 1.6250 and resistance is really set now at 1.6650 and then 1.6700.\r\n\r\n<b>AUD/USD: Closing Price 0.8978</b>.  The AUD I thought was going to put up the white flag earlier in the week but with equities continuing to grind higher it has remained reasonably well supported. It is not where it should be price wise given that the S &amp; P is hovering around all-time highs but nevertheless it has NOT collapsed. The range that interests me is 0.8950 to 0.9075.\r\n\r\n<b>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8274</b>.  A very similar story with the NZD as it is with the AUD. Support is big at 0.8250 and resistance is excellent at 0.8320.\r\n\r\n<b>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.1107.</b>  Some stellar moves in the CAD and its cross rates during the week and today we pulled back almost 100 pips off the highs. Around this level is a place to establish a long position. The range is 1.1080 to 1.1230.\r\n\r\n<b>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.8879</b>.  I see absolutely no point whatsoever trading this pair. Boring, boring, boring. Wake me up at 0.8800.\r\n\r\n<b>USD/JPY: Closing Price 102.48.  </b>We are still in exactly the same range as last week.  No change in my opinion. I think it’s going lower towards 99.50 before we hit 110.00. The range is 101.50 to 102.80.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">8. MAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:</span></b>\r\n\r\nSUNDAY: N/A\r\n\r\nMONDAY: N/A\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: N/A\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: N/\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: N/A\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: EUR – CPi.\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b>\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">9. FINAL THOUGHTS:</span></b>\r\n\r\nNot much in news events that interest me this week.\r\n\r\nI am expecting the “Chop Fest” to continue and with no major published news that really interests me due to published I think that the forex markets will be in the hands of the equity markets for direction and also “God help us all” the “numpty” politicians claiming their 30 seconds of TV fame with sound- bytes.\r\n\r\nWith that in mind, always remember that there is a market everyday. You do not need to trade everyday to make your financial goals. If it’s too choppy stand aside and in any event take smaller position sizes.\r\n\r\nGood luck and trade within your TRADE PLAN guidelines and most importantly use sound MONEY MANAGEMENT SKILLS to control your risk.\r\n\r\nPLAN YOUR TRADES and TRADE YOUR PLAN.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nSaturday February 22nd 2014\r\n\r\nEMAIL / FOLLOW ME AT:\r\npremiumservice@weeklyfxdrivethru.com\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\nTwitter: @ThePremService\r\n<span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">Google+/scottpickering\r\n</span><span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">StockTwits; thepipaccumulator</span>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','THE MARKET IS A CHOP FEST…HERE ARE SOME THOUGHTS ON SURVIVING:','','inherit','open','closed','','3267-revision-v1','','','2014-02-22 10:06:09','2014-02-22 15:06:09','',3267,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/3267-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0);
