<strong> </strong>
<ol>
	<li><strong> INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>
</ol>
Although last week was a good trading week I am grateful that it is over.

With regards to the Scottish Referendum vote; after the release of the “Falkirk” result on Thursday evening, I went long across the board GBP because this area was deemed to be a “nap” (guarantee) for the YES vote. It was a shock to Alex Salmond no doubt, when the count total was released as a NO victory. This is not my usual trading style at all. I quickly placed some protected stops as I felt that moves had already forced strength in the cable but some resistance levels were on the horizon and I wanted to bank some $$$. In the middle of setting stops my connection to the broker that had the 7 trades failed.

We have all been there. I was frantically trying to establish a connection via my backup and via my cellphone as well. Knowing that I only had a few minutes, stress levels were at RED alert. By the time I established a re-connection I placed protective stops on all trades as the GBP/USD was already starting to look top heavy. after I tweeted out the trades to PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers, the trades bounced up. I walked away to make coffee back 3 or 4 minutes later and all trades were being closed automatically except for the GBP/JPY, which took about another 10 minutes or so.

Why write this in the blog?
<ul>
	<li>The importance of setting stops whether to protect losses or profits is paramount to trading success.</li>
	<li>Whilst it was a frantic 15-20 minutes in total. I had my routine, the order in which to logically go through problem solving and getting my connectivity to the broker(s) re-established. Everything is prioritized.</li>
	<li>When the connection is re-established the only thing to do is protect your trades. Should you feel volatility is too high, make a decision to close trades or run the risk of the stops being used. If you set wider stops like I do, close trades and bank $$$ whenever and wherever you can. I trade to make $$$ not to give money to brokers.</li>
</ul>
Trading is about being as cute and smart as you can even in moments when you are out of control. I know that you can describe having a stop in play is being in control. I completely understand that point of view, but for me control means having the ability to adjust a trade in a second if the market moves me to do so.

In the end, I banked +326 pips on the Falkirk news…. I am grateful. It could have been more pips, it could have been fewer pips and of course it could have been a negative set of trades as they were all really working in unison. It is worth having an action plan in place to logically tackle these potential trading nightmares.

Prior to the Scottish news there was the FOMC statement. After all the debate ahead of time Janet Yellen remained a “Dove”. I was surprised, but not surprised, her pre-amble statement of about 40-50 words always says along the lines of after everything is back to normal the FED will always have a loose supportive policy in place. The “Considerable Period of Time” line that attracts all the focus is maybe not the key that we all think that it is. Sure, it is a contributing factor but she is a “Dove” and I think that we note this.

In any event, Dove or Hawk, the USD strengthened like crazy after she walked off the stage…. it is what it is, the statement meant nothing really at the end of the day in my opinion.

Now I think it’s all about applying focus back into my favourite economic area, …… the EUROZONE.

<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>
<ol start="2">
	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE: –</strong></li>
</ol>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>OVERVIEW, TRADING ACTIVITY, NEWS UPDATE &amp; MONTHLY AND
</strong><strong>YEAR TO DATE TRADING SUMMARIES:</strong></p>
&nbsp;

2.1 OVERVIEW:

For new readers who may not be aware, I refer to the PREMIUM SERVICE quite a lot in this blog and for more details about what it is, and, how much it costs, you will need to go the welcome page of <a href="http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> At the top of the page there are three drop down menus: PREMIUM SERVICE, SIGN-UP and DISCLAIMER. Further details and how to join are all contained there. You will need at PayPal account to subscribe.

2.2 TRADING ACTIVITY:

The past week was a great trading week with the PREMIUM SERVICE. Lots more trades, very few losses and a consistent stream of $$$ hitting my brokers. I know that some of you follow either just RADAR trades or just follow FLASH trades. There was a great mixture over the past week so if you are selective you should have banked good $$$.

If you missed a few trades do not worry. The market is here for us 5 days a week. Whilst there was a fantastic profit % last week, this is not always the case. As I have stated many times, sometimes your best trades are the ones you miss. Trading Forex is all about longevity. There is a market everyday; you do NOT need to be in 10 trades a day, being selective and disciplined working within your goals and objectives within your TRADING PLAN is the only route for success and longevity.

Looking forward let’s hope that the charts keep presenting great trading opportunities to exploit.

2.3 NEWS UPDATE:

I completed the MONTREAL – INTRODUCTION TO FOREX presentations last weekend. Attendance was not as good as I had hoped but interest has continued after the event and I am looking to follow up with a one-off session at my home for interested parties.

A local radio station that wants me to talk about Forex has been in touch; this should be fascinating if I am asked about chart patterns. If this progresses I will let you know.<strong> </strong>

2.4 MONTHLY AND YEAR TO DATE TRADING SUMMARIES<strong>:</strong>

Below I show the up to date performances for my various trading styles. Full excel spreadsheets are in the subscriber area of the PREMIUM SERVICE website.

Below are the excel spreadsheets covering this month so far and the year 2014 to date.

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/PREM-SERV-PROFITS1-20092014.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-4381" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/PREM-SERV-PROFITS1-20092014.png" alt="PREM SERV PROFITS1 20092014" width="454" height="429" /></a>

&nbsp;

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/PREM-SERV-PROFITS2-20092014.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-4382" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/PREM-SERV-PROFITS2-20092014.png" alt="PREM SERV PROFITS2 20092014" width="457" height="421" /></a>

PLEASE NOTE:

The above examples are for illustration purposes only. The profitability examples detailed above are based solely upon single lot trading, regardless of lot type. If multiple lot sizes are traded the profitability margins will be different than those shown.

Just to provide more information so you understand where I am coming from with the risk / reward statements above. All of my trades are of different sizes and different size lot types. The above does not reflect the actual trading performance, but it does show you the direction of the performance of the trades placed. I like to add to trades, profits are taken as the trade progresses and my overall cost average moves several times. All of my trades are of different lot styles. I trade a mixture of micro lots, mini lots and standard lots across my brokers.

The above results simply display your profit or loss if you placed a single lot trade on all the set-ups suggested and did nothing else.

You must always remember to follow properly executed RISK MANAGEMENT and POSITION SIZING disciplines with all your trades and remember that Forex trading with a high degree of leverage can significantly increase your profits and losses. You should trade with a TRADE PLAN and NOT risk monies that you cannot afford to lose.

<strong> </strong>
<ol start="3">
	<li><strong> THE FUNDAMENTAL TRADERS OVERVIEW:</strong><strong> </strong></li>
</ol>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>THE USD INDEX (DXY) IS AT MULTI-YEAR HIGHS AND
A BREAKOUT LOOMS, WHAT WILL BE THE EFFECTS?</strong></p>
<strong>
</strong>

Last week I included in the blog a chart of the USD index (DXY).

I include an updated version this week. The USD index is on the cusp of a major breakout. We are hitting against major resistance at 84.75-84.80. The trend line is an 8-year resistance line. If this breaks the USD has the chance to move up to just over 92.00. The ramifications of this move would place the EUR/USD at around 1.2000.

The (DXY – Weekly) chart below has the details.

&nbsp;

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/DXY-20092014.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-4380" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/DXY-20092014-1024x531.png" alt="DXY 20092014" width="1024" height="531" /></a>

&nbsp;

Should the USD break out, I can imagine that the best way to describe the events would be the equivalent of dominoes falling over one after another like you see in the competitions that you can watch on You Tube.

What are dominoes that I see falling?

These are not in what I believe the order will be, but, it is my assessment of what may happen. Plus: this can all happen very, very quickly.
<ul>
	<li>USD index: Hits 85.00 or above as both the EUR and JPY continue to weaken.</li>
	<li>EUR/USD: Slips through 1.2760 and heads for 1.2500.</li>
	<li>USD/JPY: Breaks through 109.00 with conviction and heads towards 112.00.</li>
	<li>TREASURY BOND YIELDS: They continue to rise as Bond prices fall, fuelling the USD/JPY move higher.</li>
	<li>GOLD: Starts to drop through $1200.00 on the back of the start of USD strength and heads towards $1,100.00.</li>
	<li>COPPER: Starts to look as if it is about to head for a test of $3.00 as the precious metals markets start to sell-off.</li>
	<li>COMMODITY CURRENCIES: They start to fall ahead of the equities markets. AUD/USD heads through support and targets 0.8500. The NZD/USD drops as well and heads towards 0.7500. The USD/CAD catches a lift through 1.1100 and heads towards 1.1500.</li>
	<li>OIL (WTi): Tests $90.00 and breaks lower towards $85.00. The move is accelerated as the USD continues to head towards 90.00.</li>
	<li>COMMODITY PRICES: Start to come under pressure and fall.</li>
	<li>THEVIX: This starts to trade at new highs.and…. then…. finally,</li>
	<li>EQUITIES: They start to weaken and roll over which exacerbates the USD strength and forces the DXY higher towards 90.00. We already saw the Alibaba (BABA) IPO yesterday (Friday 19<sup>th</sup> September 2014) and the volatility on Wall Street was incredible. BABA moved from all-time highs to all-time lows and everything in between.</li>
</ul>
&nbsp;

Despite the biggest IPO in Wall Street history, the DOW, S&amp;P and Nasdaq all flirted with going negative.

The positive effect of the Scottish Vote was not felt in the cable and it was short lived as well on Wall Street.

The closing charts on the major indices do not look as if they are going to continue higher, in fact they look very toppy.

Next week could see the dominoes being placed in position and maybe sooner rather than later. There will be some spectacular trading opportunities if this scenario plays out.

<strong> </strong>

<strong> </strong>
<ol start="4">
	<li><strong> TRADER TOPICS:</strong></li>
</ol>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>TRADING OUTSIDE OF YOUR COMFORT ZONE</strong></p>
In all the articles that I have supplied to the TRADING ESSENTIALS area of the PREMIUM SERVICE support area, I have tried to emphasize RISK MANAGEMENT as being essential. When you compose your TRADING PLAN together with the TRADING DISCIPLINES, RISK TOLERANCES and MONEY MANAGEMENT principles that you have tested over time, these principles that you have developed are the base to make you a more consistent trader with longevity to trade in the Forex market.

These basics enable you to work on possible trading flaws and further determine what works for you and what doesn’t in your trades. This further adds weight to your trading being more consistent.

All of the above, whilst they are tried and tested can become boring after a period of time. You may want more just to test your abilities and resilience. As mentioned, once you are comfortable with a tried and tested strategy, you may consider trading outside of your comfort zone.

I am not saying double or triple position sizes.
I am not saying throw your TRADING PLAN out of the window.

This may not be typical of every trader, but I have been asked if trading is boring after a time what do I do? I have the blogs and twitter to keep me diversified.

For most traders, I am thinking along the lines of maybe looking at increasing your skills by maybe trying a different trading method. This would add to your knowledge of the industry and it may expose you to more opportunities and maybe more profit opportunities. If you do something that gives you increased knowledge it will add to your fulfillment, confidence and your emotional resilience as a trader. Neither of these are bad things at all.

On the negative side, stepping outside of your existing COMFORT ZONE does expose you to emotional stress, which can expose you to the possibility of making mistakes.

Here are my thoughts on managing the emotional side of trying something new: -

&nbsp;
<ol>
	<li>MOVE SLOWLY:</li>
</ol>
Do NOT jump into something new like a bull in a china shop. Your change may be on certain types of entries: e.g. wedge or flag formations where you may increase your position size by say one lot. It may even be trading a new currency pair. Whatever it is, take it easy.

&nbsp;
<ol start="2">
	<li>TEST AS MUCH AS YOU CAN:</li>
</ol>
The great thing about Forex trading is that you can demo account all thoughts and ideas. Test them; refine them before placing into a LIVE environment. This ensures less risk and the only investment that you require is your time.

&nbsp;
<ol start="3">
	<li>ALL SAID AND DONE… YOU CAN PUT IT DOWN TO EXPERIENCE:</li>
</ol>
Like many traders I have gone outside of my comfort zone. Sometimes the end result was good. For example, increasing my position sizes by two lots trading a bearish wedge breakout to the long side and moving my stops to break even on the 23.6% retracement of the downside move.

That was a great strategy but I have had failures.

They were all learning curves that add to experience.

&nbsp;

CONCLUSION:

Remember, when you take on any new action, whether it is just testing a trading method or using a different way to analyze the market your ideas will be challenged. The key is try to have an open mind, as you may see things that you did not see before, new ideas may pop up and you will grow.

Going outside of your comfort zone is not easy. You may see success at first but as you know with how your TRADING PLAN is set up it can take a huge amount of repetition before it becomes fixed into your trading plan. The great thing is that trying new techniques keeps you open to change and the possibility of increased profits.<strong> </strong>

&nbsp;
<ol start="5">
	<li><strong> MY CURRENT LIVE TRADES:</strong></li>
</ol>
<strong>FLASH TRADES:</strong>

No LIVE trades at the present time.<strong> </strong>

<strong>RADAR TRADES:</strong>

RT143
AUD/NZD
Long
Long at 1.1200
Stop at 1.0900
Limit at 1.1550
Present Price: 1.0968
Current Profit / Loss Position: -232 pips
(This trade is now hedged at a 125-pip loss<strong>)</strong><strong> </strong>

RT156
EUR/USD
Short
Short at 1.2880
Stop at 1.2980
Limit at 1.2650
Present Price: 1 2828
Current Profit / Loss Position: +52 pips

RT157
NZD/USD
Short
Short at 0.8120
Stop at 0.8250
Limit at 0.7600
Present Price: 0.8110
Current Profit / Loss Position: +10 pips

RT158
AUD/USD
Short
Short at 0.8990
Stop at 0.9050
Limit at 0.8600
Present Price: 0.8921
Current Profit / Loss Position: +69 pips

RT159
USD/CHF
Long
Long at 0.9350
Stop at 0.9290
Limit at 0.9580
Present Price: 0.9406
Current Profit / Loss Position: +56 pips

<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>

<strong>FUNDAMENTAL TRADES:</strong>

No LIVE trades at the present time.

<strong> </strong>
<ol start="6">
	<li><strong> TRADES THAT ARE ON MY RADAR:</strong></li>
</ol>
The following trades are limit orders that I will set with my brokers at the weekly open on 21<sup>st</sup> September 2014. They are NOT in place yet in case of any geopolitical news that may move the markets markedly out of position from the previous close.

<strong>GBP/USD:</strong>

Following the Scottish Referendum result the cable broke higher through the trend line resistance as you can see on the Daily Chart below. This was in fact a false breakout and cable was beaten down harshly back towards 1.6300. Crucial horizontal support lies at 1.6275.

My trade with this pair is to sell into strength and look for a possible move back towards 1.6000.

As always you have to careful with cable. There is still the likelihood that early next year there will be interest rate rises by the BOE.

GBP/USD
Short from 1.6350
Limit 1.6420
Target 1.6000

&nbsp;

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/GBPUSD-DAILY-20092014.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-4374" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/GBPUSD-DAILY-20092014-1024x491.png" alt="GBPUSD DAILY  20092014" width="1024" height="491" /></a>

&nbsp;

<strong>USD/JPY:</strong>

This pair is in breakout territory after breaking free of the 106.00 level. While I think true support lies at 106.00 that is now some way away from the current levels of 109.00.

The charts are not really giving me much even as I go back to smaller minute charts. 108.60 is a horizontal support area.

USD/JPY
Long from 108.60
Limit 110.60
Stop Loss 108.00.

&nbsp;

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/USDJPY-WEEKLY-20092014.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-4373" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/USDJPY-WEEKLY-20092014-1024x491.png" alt="USDJPY WEEKLY 20092014" width="1024" height="491" /></a>

&nbsp;

<strong>USD/SEK</strong>

I have been in and out of this pair over the past few months. This pair is moving higher and should we see USD strength come through the markets this is a pair that I would like to have active.

USD/SEK
Long at 7.1000 (This is the breakout point hard to see on the chart)
Stop at 7.0500
Limit 7.3650

<strong> </strong>

<strong> <a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/USDSEK-MONTHLY-20092014.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-4371" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/USDSEK-MONTHLY-20092014-1024x491.png" alt="USDSEK MONTHLY 20092014" width="1024" height="491" /></a></strong>

&nbsp;

<strong>USD/NOK:</strong>

This pair was in a breakout out and pulled back nicely on Thursday last week that I missed. It stopped dead on the 61.8% retracement at 6.3318. This would be an excellent area to enter long with a stop at the 50% retracement of 6.2936 looking for a move back to the highs of 6.4550.

USD/NOK
Long from 6.3320
Stop at 6.2900
Limit at 6.4550

&nbsp;

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/USDNOK-DAILY-20092014.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-4372" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/USDNOK-DAILY-20092014-1024x491.png" alt="USDNOK DAILY 20092014" width="1024" height="491" /></a>

<strong> </strong>

<strong> </strong>
<ol start="7">
	<li><strong> LOOKING FORWARD…THE KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS:</strong></li>
</ol>
<strong>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.2828.</strong> It was a fascinating week for the single currency. I really thought we were going to test 1.3150 ahead of Yellen last Wednesday. Nomura came out with a 1.2700 prediction for the end of the week. The EUR/USD very nearly saw a 1.27 handle, it closed the week almost at the daily lows just above the Nomura prediction. This pair does look very bearish. If my “Domino” scenario plays out 1.2000 is not an unrealistic target. Can you imagine how pleased Italy, Spain, Portugal, Greece and Ireland would be if this happened. My levels to watch are support at 1.2760 and resistance at 1.2950. My bias is bearish.

<strong>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.6285</strong>. It was a bit of a roller-coaster week for the cable. It closed the week almost on critical horizontal support at 1.6275. A break below here opens up 1.6000 in my opinion. Resistance is at 1.6345 then 1.6420. My bias is bearish.

<strong>AUD/USD: Closing Price 0.8921</strong>. The sell-off continues and another 100 pip weekly fall has been seen. We are now at the point where it will just have to drop to 0.8500 to satisfy everyone and then allow the bottom pickers to enter long. My issue is that I think that Glenn Stevens at the RBA has maybe around 0.8000 as the figure in mind. Should commodities sell off and a reversal in equities happens it would make 0.8000 more of a target than 0.8500. For now support is at 0.8880 and resistance at 0.9000. Mt bias is bearish.<strong> </strong>

<strong>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8110</strong>. At the end of another trading week not much of a difference in the weekly closing price. I think that the AUD/NZD cross-rate effect is in play. Support is at 0.8070 and resistance is good at 0.8220. My bias is bearish.

<strong>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.0960.</strong> The breakout that I was looking for last week has not materialized. This pair is a lead indicator and the signs were there but the move did not happen. I still believe that this pair is on the cusp of a huge break higher in my opinion. Once we broke 1.1000 the writing was on the wall and the fall in oil has contributed a bit as well. I am personally waiting for a pullback to re-enter long once again. I took a loss on a trade yesterday on the back of strong Canadian data. The range for me is support at 1.0900 and resistance at 1.1000. My bias is bullish.<strong> </strong>

<strong>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.9406</strong>. This pair has closed the week on key resistance. If the EUR/USD continues to struggle this will be good news for my long USD/CHF trade. We are playing out a head and shoulders pattern with the measured move being up to 0.9580. Immediate support is at 0.9350 and resistance now at 0.9450. My bias is bullish.<strong> </strong>

<strong>USD/JPY: Closing Price 109.01. </strong>There was a massive weakness in the JPY currency across the board this week. The question is just how far is the USD/JPY going to go. I think that 100.00 beckons and we may reach as high as 110.60. There is so much further that this pair can go higher, however, there is a Fibonacci resistance level (78.6%) at 112.70. The immediate levels with the USD/JPY are in roundish numbers support at 108.50 and resistance at 109.50. My bias is bullish.

<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>
<ol start="8">
	<li><strong> MAJOR TRADING PAIRS WITH LONGER-TERM TRENDS MATCHING:</strong></li>
</ol>
The following currency pairs have Short Term (DAILY), Medium Term (WEEKLY) and Long Term (MONTHLY) charts all trending in the same direction.

LONG:

USD/CHF
USD/JPY
CAD/JPY
GBP/JPY
NZD/JPY
GBP/AUD
GBP/CHF
USD/DKK
USD/SEK

&nbsp;

SHORT:

EUR/USD
AUD/USD
NZD/USD
AUD/CAD
EUR/CAD
EUR/CHF
EUR/NOK

<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>
<ol start="9">
	<li><strong> MAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:</strong></li>
</ol>
SUNDAY: N/A.

MONDAY: EUR – Mario Draghi (ECB President) Speaks.
MONDAY: CNY – HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMi.

TUESDAY: EUR – German and French Flash Manufacturing PMi.
TUESDAY: CAD – Core Retail Sales.
TUESDAY: NZD – Trade Balance.

WEDNESDAY: EUR – German ifo Business Climate.
WEDNESDAY: AUD – Glenn Stevens (RBA President) Speaks.

THURSDAY: N/A.

FRIDAY: N/A.<strong> </strong>

<strong>
10. FINAL THOUGHTS</strong>

From a news event perspective it looks fairly light for the next week.

My feature article in the blog this week was about the strength of the USD. If my thoughts come to fruition there will be a lot of activity to consider coming up and it could be as early as next week.

If the “Dominos” start to fall over, the speed of the knock-on effect could be quite staggering. With this data at the front of my mind I will trade accordingly and keep my positions very manageable.

As I always say, no matter what type or style of trading we have, always, PLAN YOUR TRADES and TRADE YOUR PLAN regardless of market activity, in addition continue to exercise TRADING DISCIPLINE and do <strong>NOT</strong> FORCE TRADES as the chances are you run a much higher risk than normal of being caught out on the wrong side.

&nbsp;

Scott Pickering
The Pip Accumulator
Saturday September 20th 2014

EMAIL / FOLLOW ME AT:
premiumservice@weeklyfxdrivethru.com
Twitter: @pipaccumulator
Twitter: @ThePremService
Google+/scottpickering

&nbsp;

<strong>DISCLAIMER:</strong>

FLASH, RADAR and FUNDAMENTAL trade set-ups, “Tweets” and “Trade ideas” that are posted in my blogs or on Twitter are trades and set-ups that interest me. They are provided for training and informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as an offer, solicitation or recommendation of any specific security or investment strategy. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading Forex carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade any such leveraged products you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin, and seek advice from an independent financial adviser if you have any doubts.

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

&nbsp;