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<strong>1. INTRODUCTION:</strong>

A very unusual week is my description of the events that we witnessed over the past 7 days. There were short periods of volatility within what feels like the summer doldrums, but overall when you look back I think all we did was tighten up many of the ranges that we already had in play.

As a trader I know I have to work with the charts that are in front of me, however I have a huge personal issue differentiating my fundamental views from the charts on my computer when reviewing my technical analysis. Fundamentally some currency pairs have, in my opinion, highly inflated exchange rates e.g. EUR, AUD and NZD. They just do not react in line with my thoughts and I am holding positions short on all three against the USD. I think that I am being driven by fear of not maximizing any down side move that may start at a time that I am least expecting it. I am probably over-stubborn in holding these trades but, given the fact we have in real terms little volatility I am happy to sit tight and hold losses for now.

The Eurozone was big in the news last week, the Portugal banking system raised its head, and manufacturing data was very week from Germany, Italy and France. Add to this a weak failing bond auction from Greece and my EUR/USD seems set to come good sooner or later.

The FED minutes from the last meeting were released and nothing new was evident. In fact, the USD was taken to the cleaners after the minutes were released allowing me some great entry levels on short trades in the NZD and AUD.

Weak Chinese data was apparently the reason for equities in Asia, Europe and Wall Street declining towards the end of the week; I just thought it was profit taking.

The bottom line is at the moment the market only has buyers. There are no sellers. It is a one sided market and until sellers come back we are going to have to deal with what we have. A slow upward grinding equity market and very little volatility to boot. It will only get worse as we head deeper into the summer vacation times.

Big news personally, is that if you live in Canada the PREMIUM SERVICE is on its way to you by way of a series of presentations to attract new subscribers. I have a series of 5 presentations scheduled for Montreal in September and I hope to be across the other major Canadian cities by the end of 2014. I am planning in 2015 if Canada is successful, to take the presentations to Europe, to be specific Ireland and the UK.

The income from single-lot trades continues to grow each week, even though the numbers of trades being taken are less than anticipated. However, it’s all about banking $$$$ and as long as this continues to be the case I should not complain.

The approach that I adopted in mid 2013, by being more flexible with lots sizes by added and reducing trades as moves develop, or as in 2014, try to develop has really paid off one two fronts. Firstly, RISK MANAGEMENT is far more controllable and this approach enhances TRADE DISCIPLINES, which are paramount for success and longevity. Secondly, the FLEXIBILITY in trading allows us as traders to adapt to real-time situations whilst maybe not eliminating an excellent entry price, therefore my PREMIUM SERVICE approach of mixing, MICRO. MINI and STANDARD lot sizes within the same trades I believe is one of the critical success factors of the PREMIUM SERVICE subscriber option.

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<strong>2. THE VIEW FROM MY TRADING DESK:</strong>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>PATIENT TRADERS ARE REWARDED FOR WAITING</strong></p>
For weeks I have been writing about the slow markets and for weeks I have been reading about slow markets from both the perspective of traders and supporting banks. The Forex market changes and evolves all the time, as traders we adapt to the charts we are presented with and we react accordingly. One thing that will happen is that the volatility that we are missing at the moment will eventually return and instead of the huge temptation to force trades from what we have now we will return to an environment of choosing trades once again.

In the TRADER TOPICS section (PREMIUM SERVICE version), I have written recently about not forcing trades, wait for trades to come to you etc. If we constantly show TRADING DISCIPLINE and do not let a slow moving market with little trading volume change our focus, as a trader you will survive longer.

In this context it is how I arrived at the title “PATIENT TRADERS ARE REWARDED FOR WAITING”. The markets will return and we will benefit in the future for now we need to be patient.
<p style="text-align: left;">There are many news items at the present time that one would have thought would have created a more volatile market with directional momentum moves.</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>FED TAPERING</strong>
<strong> FED INTEREST RATE POLICY (or lack of!!)</strong>
<strong> EUROZONE EASING</strong>
<strong> CHINA SLOWDOWN</strong>
<strong> MIDDLE EAST TENSIONS (Israel / Gaza and Lebanon)</strong>
<strong> MIDDLE EAST TENSIONS (Iraq /Syria and Iran)</strong>
<strong> HIGHER OIL PRICES</strong>
<strong> EUROZONE DEFLATION</strong>
<strong> ABENOMICS in JAPAN (success / failure/ stagnating)</strong>
<strong> PORTUGUESE – BANCO ESPIRITO SANTO BANK</strong>
<strong>EUROZONE WEAKENING MANUFACTURING DATA</strong></p>
As you know, I am a fundamental trader first, so I feel the frustration of lack of movement and more importantly the directional momentum more than most when the fundamentals appear blatantly obvious. The fact is, that the technical trades just don't line up and, trades taken in haste do tend to fail and, if by fluke you are successful it is usually a false belief.

We are operating in tight trading ranges at the moment and when we think we are breaking out or breaking down the moves evaporate. I have tweeted and written on numerous occasions that patience is a virtue; it really is at the moment.

Sit tight and wait for the trades to come to you and exercise patience. This is one of the keys to trading longevity<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>

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<strong>3. LOOKING FORWARD…THE KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS:</strong>

<strong>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3604.</strong> We are consolidating in a tight trading range of 1.3575 to 1.3650. The support and resistance levels have been tested a couple of times and they hold. Therefore if you like range trading, work away, just remember to place tight stops…. just in case.

<strong>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.7095</strong>. Cable is not falling, it is holding up very well. So what does not fall only has one way to go. The question is when? Until the breakout happens the trading range is 1.7085 to 1.7185.

<strong>AUD/USD: Closing Price 0.9391</strong>. This pair as far as I am concerned is consolidating. It is underperforming in relation to the Kiwi but it is not falling and to be honest as long as U.S. equities continue to grind higher the AUD currency in general will stay well supported. I am looking at 0.9325 as the bull bear support line and 0.9425 at the resistance level.<strong> </strong>

<strong>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8803</strong>. I am short. I do NOT like being short but I feel that this pair is grossly over-valued. My thoughts are 100% irrelevant because it is what it is. I do feel thought that Wheeler (RBNZ governor) will have a huge issue if he raises rates in two weeks, as we will see this pair at 0.9000 and probably above. Milk prices are struggling and so will the New Zealand economy if the NZD strength is allowed to continue. But these are my fundamental views. For now this currency is strong and it is not yielding. The range that I am looking at it 0.8725 to 0.8842 (52-week highs)

<strong>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.0733.</strong> A disastrous employment data release last Friday gave the CAD the move higher. I am long and now in a great profitable position…happy days!!! The next resistance level is at 1.0750 then 1.0830. Support will be good at 1.0700

<strong>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.8921</strong>. Nothing much has changed with levels with this pair. The trading range has not really altered. I see support at 0.8910 and resistance at 0.9110.

<strong>USD/JPY: Closing Price 101.22. </strong>One week I think that the JPY is strengthening…. then, the next week I think that it is weakening. I want to see it break out so that I can make a decision. The JPY does not interest me at all at the moment and I am keeping well away from it. I see the range at 100.75 to 101.60.

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<strong>4. MAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:</strong><strong> </strong>

SUNDAY: N/A.

MONDAY: EUR – Draghi Speaks.
MONDAY: AUD – Monetarey Policy Meeting Minutes.

TUESDAY: EUR – German ZEW Economic Statement.
TUESDAY: GBP – Carney Speaks.
TUESDAY: USD – Retail Sales, Yellen testifies.
TUESDAY: NZD – CPi.
TUESDAY: CNY – GDP.

WEDNESDAY: GBP – Unemployment data.
WEDNESDAY: CAD – BOC Rate Statement &amp; Press Conference.
WEDNESDAY: USD – Yellen testifies.

THURSDAY: N/A.

FRIDAY: CAD – Core CPi.

<strong>5. THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong>

I refer quite a bit in this blog to the PREMIUM SERVICE.

If you would like further information on what the PREMIUM SERVICE is all about please visit <a href="http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>

At the top of the welcome page there is a drop-down menu titled PREMIUM SERVICE click on this and more data and also the up to date 2014 performance statistics are contained there to enable you to review at your leisure.

Should you decided to subscribe click on SIGN-UP and the instructions are easy to follow you just require a PayPal account to enable to subscription. There are three subscription options for you to chose from.

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<strong>6. FINAL THOUGHTS:</strong>

My only comment for this section this week is to be careful. Many traders are on a break now for the summer, personally, I will be joining them in a couple of weeks.

We are most definitely in the summer doldrums with trading volatility and volumes. We cannot manufacture trades, we can only deal with what we are presented with and that may not be much.

As I have written the last two weeks we need to exercise TRADING DISCIPLINE and <strong>NOT</strong> FORCE TRADES as the chances are you run a much higher risk than normal of being caught out on the wrong side.

Take care and good luck.

Scott Pickering
The Pip Accumulator
drivethru@weeklyfxdrivethru.com
Saturday July 12th 2014

FOLLOW ME AT:
Twitter: @pipaccumulator
Twitter: @ThePremService
Google+/scottpickering

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