11.01.2014

<b><span style="text-decoration: underline;">1. INTRODUCTION:</span></b>

It was a very quiet first week back for the Fx markets. I thought as the market liquidity levels rose that we would have seen a very volatile opening week of trading. In addition, when you look at the major news events last week, it seemed an “odds on” bet for me. In the end I thought it to be a very tame week.

FOMC minutes, ADP Non Farm, Interest rate decisions passed off quietly, Draghi said nothing new, the ECB press conference pretty lame, big misses on the U.S. and Canadian Jobs but not really a full follow through…a little boring for me.

I have been working on the new PREMIUM SERVICE, which I am looking to launch very soon. As soon as I am able to give a launch date I will post a blog, which will deliver direct to WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU subscribers an introduction email with details of how to subscribe etc.

<b><span style="text-decoration: underline;">2. RADAR AND FLASH TRADES TRADING SUMMARY:</span></b>
<p align="center"><b><span style="text-decoration: underline;">JANUARY 2014 and YEAR to date:</span></b></p>
This will be a section in the new PREMIUM SERVICE when launched where I will review good and bad trades. At that time it will no longer be a part of the WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU. To take advantage of the trade set-ups you will need to be a PREMIUM SERVICE subscriber.

I have included below, two excel spreadsheets for both types of trading styles that I refer to when I am “tweeting”, using Google+ or any other social network.

RADAR TRADES: These are pre-meditated limit order trades. I hope that these will be longer-term trades.

FLASH TRADES: These are more of an intra-day trade. They may develop into “Swing style” trades but will probably be more short term.

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<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/RADARTRADES14012014.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-2475" alt="RADAR TRADES 14.01.2014" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/RADARTRADES14012014.png" width="536" height="478" /></a>

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<p align="center"><b><span style="text-decoration: underline;">PROFITS FROM SINGLE LOT COMPLETED RADAR TRADES:</span></b></p>
<p style="text-align: center;"> 1 x MICRO-LOT
3 trades at $0.10 cents each = $0.30 cents risk for a $13.90 reward.
<span style="line-height: 1.5em;">1 x MINI-LOT:
</span><span style="line-height: 1.5em;">3 trades at $1.00 each = $3.00 risk for a $139.00 reward.
</span><span style="line-height: 1.5em;">1 x STANDARD LOT:
</span><span style="line-height: 1.5em;">3 trades at $10.00 each = $30.00 risk for a $1,390.00 reward.</span></p>
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<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/FLASHTRADES14012014.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-2474" alt="FLASH TRADES 14.01.2014" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/FLASHTRADES14012014.png" width="467" height="479" /></a>

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<p align="center"><b><span style="text-decoration: underline;">PROFITS FROM SINGLE LOT COMPLETED FLASH TRADES:</span></b></p>
<p align="center">1 x MICRO-LOT:
4 trades at $0.10 cents each = $0.40 cents risk for an $8.50 reward.</p>
<p align="center">1 x MINI-LOT:
4 trades at $1.00 each = $4.00 risk for $85.00 reward</p>
<p align="center">1 x STANDARD LOT:
4 trades at $10.00 each = $40.00 risk for a $850.00 reward</p>
<p align="center"><b><span style="text-decoration: underline;"> </span></b></p>
<p align="center"><b><span style="text-decoration: underline;">COMBINED FLASH AND RADAR TRADES PROFIT PERFORMANCE</span></b></p>
<p align="center"><b><span style="text-decoration: underline;">JANUARY 2014…SO FAR:</span></b></p>
<p align="center">TRADING MICRO-LOTS:
7 trades at $0.10 cents each = $0.70 risk for a $22.40 reward.</p>
<p align="center">TRADING MINI-LOTS:
7 trades at $1.00 each = $7.00 risk for a $224.00 reward.</p>
<p align="center">TRADING STANDARD LOTS:
7 trades at $10.00 each = $70.00 risk for a $2,240.00 reward.</p>
It is a great start to a new year of trading, albeit quite slow. As I have said many times before… It is no big secret…. It’s all about discipline. I am NOT chasing trades, far from it, it took three/four attempts at pullbacks for GBP/AUD, AUD/USD and GBP/USD to trigger (these trades are still active).

My approach is all about discipline. The market will always be there and as long as there is a market there will be opportunities.
<p style="text-align: left;">Look my trading style - it’s simple: -</p>
<p align="center"><strong>FUNDAMENTALS MATTER TO ME</strong></p>
<p align="center"><strong>I TRADE TO MAKE MONEY…NOT TO PICK TOPS OR BOTTOMS</strong></p>
<p align="center"><strong>I TRADE LOW RISK</strong></p>
<p align="center"><strong>I DO NOT CHASE MARKETS</strong></p>
<p align="center"><strong>I LIKE THE TRADES TO COME TO ME</strong></p>
<p align="center"><strong>I AM NOT A GREEDY TRADER</strong></p>
<p align="center"><strong>I LIKE TO TRADE MOMENTUMS IN THE DIRECTION OF TRENDS</strong></p>
<p align="center"><strong>I USE FIBONACCI LEVELS TO ENTER &amp; EXIT ON MANY TRADES</strong></p>
<p align="center"><strong>PLUS</strong></p>
<p align="center"><strong>MY TRADING STYLE IS MIXED EVEN WITH THE ABOVE KEY BASICS</strong></p>
<p align="center"><strong>I USE THE PULLBACK STRATEGY TO ENTER AND I LIKE SWING AND LONGER-TERM TRADES (WHEN POSSIBLE)</strong></p>
Details of my new PREMIUM SERVICE that gives you the option to follow the FLASH and RADAR TRADES, amongst other things, follows later in this blog.

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<b><span style="text-decoration: underline;">3. THE VIEW FROM MY TRADING DESK:</span></b>
<p align="center"><b>CORRELATIONS ARE OFF…MIXED MESSAGES ON DATA…2014 WELCOMES ALL FX TRADERS!!!</b><b> </b></p>
<p align="center"><b>WE HAVE TO BE ADAPTIVE AND DISCIPLINED TRADERS AT ALL TIMES</b></p>
Last week in my blog with my predictions for 2014, I mentioned the fact that I strongly suspected that correlations and inter-market relationships may not run as true as in previous years.

I wrote the following in last week’s blog: -
<p style="text-align: center;"><b><i>“I see this disconnect continuing, hence my forward thinking into 2014 shows disconnects between the majors. My thoughts are that there will be more extended periods when currencies will act independently this year. Correlations will come and go.</i></b></p>
<p align="center"><b><i>Typical examples of “the disconnect” are the following correlations: -</i></b><b><i> </i></b></p>
<p align="center"><b><i>USD / Gold
</i></b><b><i>AUD / NZD
</i></b><b><i>Commodity currencies / equities
</i></b><b><i>EUR / GBP
</i></b><b><i>CAD / USD
</i></b><b><i>JPY / S&amp;P
</i></b><b><i>AUD &amp; NZD / Copper
</i></b><b><i>EUR / CHF
</i></b><b><i>EUR/GBP / GBP/CHF
</i></b><b><i>JPY &amp; CHF / Gold”</i></b></p>
 It can be easy to be assumptive and influenced as a trader. I may influence by writing this blog. As a trader, one of the hardest aspects of trading to master and be consistent in doing so is being able to remove all the noise around you and trade your own plan.

Prior to the Non Farm Payroll release if you were influenced (and it is not hard to be), by all the experts and pundits on TV and written articles you would have been totally 100% set up on the wrong side of the trade.

In my blog last week I missed two news events that have been very well linked of late; ADP Non-Farm figures and the U.S. Government Non-Farm Payroll statistics.

These have been very correlated of late, so much so, that analysis’s expectations were raised for “Non-Farm’ on Friday on the back of excellent “ADP Employment data” figures released last Wednesday. Expectations of 190,000 additional people working were whispered to be around 225,000 following good ADP numbers last Wednesday. The actual release was a mere 74,000 additional people working. That is what is referred to as a miss.

My main reason for revisiting a similar theme to last week’s blog is to re-emphasize the fact that I think that in this year to be a successful Fx trader you will need to adapt to perhaps some very new disciplines.
<ol>
	<li>Ignore the “noise” around you. By noise, I mean a lot of the pointless financial chatter on Bloomberg or CNBC. This can also include bloggers like myself. You have to be your own trader. Take council, and do your research, but the buck stops with you.</li>
	<li>Note: The experts on TV are just selling their book and taking guesses at economic data. You and I can take just as good a guess as they can a lot of the time.</li>
	<li>Fundamentals do matter. Fundamentals in my opinion should be directly linked to the type of trader you aspire to be. e.g. Scalpers need not worry too much about fundamentals. Longer-term traders definitely need to consider the fundamentals.</li>
	<li>Be flexible as a trader. More than ever this is a critical success factor. Do not pigeon hole yourself as “ Swing”, “Scalper”, “Long-Term”, “Fundamental” or a “Technical” trader. I firmly believe that in 2014 you will require a little bit of everything in order to keep your head above water.</li>
	<li>Finally, take nothing for granted. If in doubt exit trades and bank profits. Do not let losing trades run away from you.</li>
	<li>I nearly always close my blogs with words like these…Trade smaller position sizes, with wider stops and work your Trading Plan using proper Money Management.</li>
</ol>
It’s all boring but essential stuff that we have all heard before many times. If I am correct and this is the “dis-connect” year we will all need a 100% disciplined approach to trading.

It is far too easy to be suckered into trades in the forex market. It is a totally unforgiving trading environment. Be disciplined at all times.

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<b><span style="text-decoration: underline;">4. MY CURRENT LIVE TRADES:</span></b>

FLASH TRADES: No live FLASH TRADES at this time.

RADAR TRADES: The following trades are live. They all emanated from last weeks MIDWEEK FX FIX trade set-ups.
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong> RT01
</strong><strong style="line-height: 1.5em;">PAIR: USD/CHF
</strong><strong style="line-height: 1.5em;">LONG /SHORT: LONG
</strong><strong style="line-height: 1.5em;">ENTRY / COST AVERAGE: 0.9030
</strong><strong style="line-height: 1.5em;">TRADE SIZE: 20%
</strong><strong style="line-height: 1.5em;">STOP LOSS: 0.8940
</strong><strong style="line-height: 1.5em;">TARGET / LIMIT: 0.9450
</strong><strong style="line-height: 1.5em;">WEEKLY CLOSING PRICE: 0.9021
</strong><strong style="line-height: 1.5em;">PRESENT POSITION: -9 pips</strong></p>
<p align="center"><strong>RT02</strong>
<strong>PAIR: AUD/USD</strong>
<strong>LONG/ SHORT: SHORT</strong>
<strong>ENTRY / COST AVERAGE: 0.9000</strong>
<strong>TRADE SIZE: 20%</strong>
<strong>STOP LOSS: 0.9050</strong>
<strong>TARGET / LIMIT: 0.8500</strong>
<strong>WEEKLY CLOSING PRICE: 0.8994</strong>
<strong>PRESENT POSITION: +6 pips</strong></p>
<p align="center"><strong> RT05</strong>
<strong>PAIR: GBP/AUD</strong>
<strong>LONG /SHORT: LONG</strong>
<strong>ENTRY / COST AVERAGE: 1.8350</strong>
<strong>TRADE SIZE: 10%</strong>
<strong>STOP LOSS: 1.8250</strong>
<strong>TARGET / LIMIT: 1.9670</strong>
<strong>WEEKLY CLOSING PRICE: 1.8314</strong>
<strong>PRESENT POSITION: -36 pips</strong></p>
<p align="center"><strong> RT11
PAIR: GBP/USD
LONG /SHORT: SHORT
ENTRY / COST AVERAGE: 1.6500
TRADE SIZE: 20%
STOP LOSS: 1.6550
TARGET / LIMIT: 1.6200
WEEKLY CLOSING PRICE: 1.6478
PRESENT POSITION: +22 pips</strong></p>
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<b><span style="text-decoration: underline;">5. TRADES THAT ARE ON MY RADAR:</span></b>

Below is the current list of RADAR TRADES that have yet to trigger from the last blog. Plus there are some additional trade set-ups that interest me.

You will notice that on all the CAD pairs that entry levels have been amended.
<p align="center"><strong>RT03:</strong>
<strong>Currency Pair: NZD/USD</strong>
<strong>Long/Short: Short</strong>
<strong>Limit Order Entry Price: 0.8320</strong>
<strong>My Proposed Position Size: 20%</strong>
<strong>Stop Loss: 0.8370</strong>
<strong>Target / Limit: 0.8240</strong></p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>RT04:</strong>
<strong>Currency Pair: USD/CAD</strong>
<strong>Long/Short: Long</strong>
<strong>Limit Order Entry Price: 1.0800</strong>
<strong>My Proposed Position Size: 20%</strong>
<strong>Stop Loss: 1.0725</strong>
<strong>Target / Limit: 1.1230</strong></p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>RT06:</strong>
<strong>Currency Pair: EUR/CAD</strong>
<strong>Long/Short: Long</strong>
<strong>Limit Order Entry Price: 1.4800</strong>
<strong>My Proposed Position Size: 20%</strong>
<strong>Stop Loss: 1.4700</strong>
<strong>Target / Limit: 1.6320</strong></p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>RT07:</strong>
<strong>Currency Pair: GBP/CAD</strong>
<strong>Long/Short: Long</strong>
<strong>Limit Order Entry Price: 1.7840</strong>
<strong>My Proposed Position Size: 20%</strong>
<strong>Stop Loss: 1.7750</strong>
<strong>Target / Limit: 1.9200</strong></p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>RT10:</strong>
<strong>Currency Pair: EUR/GBP</strong>
<strong>Long/Short: Short</strong>
<strong>Limit Order Entry Price: 0.8320</strong>
<strong>My Proposed Position Size: 20%</strong>
<strong>Stop Loss: 0.8400</strong>
<strong>Target / Limit: 0.8160</strong></p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>RT13:</strong>
<strong>Currency Pair: EUR/NZD</strong>
<strong>Long/Short: Long</strong>
<strong>Limit Order Entry Price: 1.6420</strong>
<strong>My Proposed Position Size: 10%</strong>
<strong>Stop Loss: 1.6350</strong>
<strong>Target / Limit: 1.7500</strong></p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>RT14:</strong>
<strong>Currency Pair: GBP/NZD</strong>
<strong>Long/Short: Long</strong>
<strong>Limit Order Entry Price: 1.9780</strong>
<strong>My Proposed Position Size: 10%</strong>
<strong>Stop Loss: 1.9650</strong>
<strong>Target / Limit: 2.0100</strong></p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>RT15:</strong>
<strong>Currency Pair: EUR/AUD</strong>
<strong>Long/Short: Long</strong>
<strong>Limit Order Entry Price: 1.5100</strong>
<strong>My Proposed Position Size: 10%</strong>
<strong>Stop Loss: 1.4980</strong>
<strong>Target / Limit: 1.5600</strong></p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>RT16:</strong>
<strong>Currency Pair: AUD/NZD</strong>
<strong>Long/Short: Long</strong>
<strong>Limit Order Entry Price: 1.0790</strong>
<strong>My Proposed Position Size: 20%</strong>
<strong>Stop Loss: 1.0685</strong>
<strong>Target / Limit: 1.1050</strong></p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>RT17:</strong>
<strong>Currency Pair: AUD/CHF</strong>
<strong>Long/Short: Long</strong>
<strong>Limit Order Entry Price: 0.8050</strong>
<strong>My Proposed Position Size: 10%</strong>
<strong>Stop Loss: 0.7985</strong>
<strong>Target / Limit: 0.8270</strong></p>
<b><span style="text-decoration: underline;">NOTE</span></b>: I will not be able to add limit orders and revise existing limit orders until the market opens tomorrow night (Sunday)

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<b><span style="text-decoration: underline;">6. LOOKING FORWARD…THE KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS:</span></b>

<b>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3667.</b>  This pair rejected 1.3700 resistance after Non Farm yesterday. I think that if we break higher through 1.3770 next week everything changes. Support is good at 1.3600 and 1.3550 below that I would personally trade the range 1.3550 to 1.3725.

<b>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.6478. </b>The 1.6500 resistance held pretty well. A huge amount depends upon what happens with the EUR/USD and USD/JPY as to how this pair will play out next week. The UK has Retail Sales data late in the week but we have CPi numbers in Tuesday. Recent data from the UK has been very mixed to say the least. It is well known that BOE Governor Carney does not want the GBP to strengthen too far, but there is nothing planned for his intervention to send the currency towards 1.6000. 1.6400 is good support and I would consider a break above 1.6540 could set us up for a bigger move towards 1.7000

<b>AUD/USD: Closing Price 0.8994</b>.  Although I am short, this pair looks like it could snap higher. A break above 0.9060 I think would be a sentiment change and support is good at 0.8900. The one thing to bear in mind with this pair is the desire by the RBA to have the AUD currency much lower towards 0.8500. Do not fight the RBA.

<b>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8298</b>.  The resistance level of 0.8300 has held very well. If the AUD breaks higher it is just a question of how long would it take for the Kiwi to follow. I have a RADAR TRADE short limit entry at 0.8320. Personally, I believe the range to play for the time being is 0.8200 to 0.8300. I am looking for a stop run over 0.8300 to have my entry triggered. That did not happen after Non Farm, which would have been the ideal time given the AUD/USD move after Non Farm. We sit on 0.8300 resistance. If we break above 0.8350 I will start to get twitchy.

<b>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.0885.  </b>I am so annoyed with myself for missing this break out trade. All my attempts to get an entry I am happy with have failed. I even scalped this pair after Non Farm and exited with small profits because I was not happy with the entry level for a longer-term trade. The trading range at the moment is 1.0800 to 1.0950. I have a buy order at 1.0800. I may still not get the pullback I want!

<b>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.9021</b>.  This pair is in break out mode and I patiently waited for my entry after Non Farm. Support is good at 0.8950 and above 0.9125 we should be motoring much higher.

<b>USD/JPY: Closing Price 104.15. </b> Every prediction on my chart analysis on this pair I screw up. Ultimately I do think that this pair is going much, much higher. I just think that there will be a pullback first, but I am not too sure how strong a pullback it’s going to be. In April this year the Abe led Government will implement tax changes to hopefully spur inflation towards the 2% target. I want to be long before then. I think we will possibly re-test 103.50 on the short side. Is this the level to get long and stick with it? I am not sure yet.

My range for this pair at the moment is 103.50 to 104.60.

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<b><span style="text-decoration: underline;">7. MAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:</span></b>

SUNDAY: N/A

MONDAY: GBP – CPi.

TUESDAY: USD – Retail and Core Retail Sales.

WEDNESDAY: AUD – Unemployment Numbers and % rates.

THURSDAY: N/A

FRIDAY: GBP – Retail Sales.

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<b><span style="text-decoration: underline;">8. THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</span></b>
<p align="center"><b><span style="text-decoration: underline;">THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU</span></b><b>
<span style="text-decoration: underline;">PREMIUM SERVICE  2014 </span></b>

I am still working with my software developer to have this addition to the WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU ready within the next two weeks. My intention is to launch the PREMIUM SERVICE subscription service as soon as the markets revert back to normal liquidity.

We have noticed however that a number of people have tried to register already. For anyone who has tried to register their details were deleted by the system under beta testing and even if you believe that you have an existing login or username that is not the case. As soon as I write announcing that the PREMIUM SERVICE is ready, sorry, but you will have to register again.

For those new readers below I detail the salient points regarding the premium service: -

As soon as the PREMIUM SERVICE is launched THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU in its current format will change. It will remain a weekly blog post although it will be more concise in length.

My “RADAR and FLASH TRADES” will now only be available via the Premium Service. In addition, “TRADE IDEAS &amp; SET UPS” that are tweeted will now only be available to Premium Service subscribers by email and in addition they can be viewed inside the secure section of my website.

Examples of the RADAR and FLASH TRADES excel spreadsheets are in this blog at Section 2.

In 2013, feedback from subscribers to the “Drive-Thru”, or from readers of the blog via Google+, LinkedIn or Twitter have been raising many questions about Forex Trading in general, such as: -

</p><p align="center"><b>Placing Stops</b></p>
<p align="center"><b>Strategies on entry and exit</b></p>
<p align="center"><b>Working with a Trade Plan</b> / <b>What is a Trade Plan?</b></p>
<p align="center"><b>Risk Assessment</b></p>
<p align="center"><b>When to fade trades</b></p>
<p align="center"><b>How to cost average effectively</b></p>
<p align="center"><b>How to use Trade Zones effectively - Buy Zones and Sell zones</b></p>
<p align="center"><b>Working with Fibonacci levels</b></p>
<p align="center"><b>How to find a good broker to partner with</b></p>
<p align="center"><b>Chart analysis</b></p>
Inside the secure area of my website, you will be able to reference information on all of the above topics plus much more. The library of information will grow during 2014 and my goal is to provide a comprehensive support area to traders of all experience levels. The PREMIUM SERVICE in its secure area will be a learning and reference area to subscribers.

I am also looking to offer training and information based “Webinars” to Premium Service subscription members, if I have sufficient participants. These will be fee based to cover costs.

Whilst upon first look, it may appear that the Premium Service is directed solely at new traders, or those with intermediate skill levels, please note this is not my intention. Trading can be lonely, and sometimes it is good to feel that you are part of a team. With this in mind, I am thinking that a “Chat Room” style area would be of benefit to all traders to share ideas and trade set-ups. Plus, whether a new trader or experienced trader it is always good to have a library of information available close at hand.

What are the costs of membership?

There will be 40 weekly blogs / issues per year (I will not write in the Summer and over Christmas periods), with an unlimited amount of follow ups during the week to review and act upon “RADAR and FLASH trades” and issues emanating from previous blogs. In addition trade ideas for trades already in play would also be part of the service, as I will be trading the posted set-ups.

I do not want to become a finance administrator on a daily basis so I want to keep the subscription options as few as possible.
<p align="center"><b>ANNUAL (40 WEEK) SUBSCRIPTION: $750.00 (this equates to $18.75 per week) </b></p>
<p align="center"><b>20 WEEKS SUBSCRIPTION: $450.00 (this equates to $22.50 per week) </b></p>
<p align="center"><b>10 WEEKS SUBSCRIPTION: $250.00 (this equates to $25.00 per week) </b></p>
<p align="center"><b>(ALL FEES ARE IN USD)</b></p>
Should you have any questions regarding the PREMIUM SERVICE please email me at premiumservice@thepipaccumulator.com<b></b>

<b><span style="text-decoration: underline;"> </span></b>

<b><span style="text-decoration: underline;">9. FINAL THOUGHTS:</span></b>

A little quieter this week on the news front in particular. However, following Non Farm Payrolls there is usually a bit of follow through to work with and react to.

We should see liquidity come back to the market even more this week and currency moves should be more sustainable and pretty much back to normal…whatever that means!!

I will be posting RADAR and FLASH trade set ups via twitter as the week progresses and they will be performance measured via spreadsheets in next week blog.

Good luck and trade within your TRADE PLAN guidelines and most importantly use MONEY MANAGEMENT SKILLS to control your risks.

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Scott Pickering
The Pip Accumulator
Saturday January 11<sup>th</sup> 2014

EMAIL / FOLLOW ME AT:
<a href="mailto:drivethru@thepipaccumulator.com">drivethru@thepipaccumulator.com
</a>Twitter: @pipaccumulator
<span style="line-height: 1.5em;">Google+/scottpickering
</span><span style="line-height: 1.5em;">StockTwits; thepipaccumulator</span>

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