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<strong>1. INTRODUCTION:</strong>

The RBNZ dominated the economic data during the week from my perspective. It just goes to show you that a central bank can increase rates and yet the currency can drop. As you know, the Forex market is a future focused pricing mechanism.

The RBNZ through governor Wheeler has basically brought interest rate increases to a halt and the market, which, was expecting a continued hawkish outlook received was amounted to a change in monetary policy announcement. The RNBZ announced that no more rate hikes were on the horizon moving forward and as a result the NZD pulled back. Wheeler also re-iterated that the NZD was way over-valued once again and this time verbal intervention coupled with a halt in rate hikes has given us this about face and the NZD has weakened.

Just how far the currency will drop is anyone’s guess at the moment, but I feel that the round number of 0.8500 in the NZD/USD should be the initial target. The RBNZ probably has a sub 0.8000 figure in mind.

Geopolitical news is still hovering in the background and we must remain aware of this factor when placing trades. I am always conscious that any trouble in Middle East can escalate very quickly particularly when Israel is involved. We have not heard the end of MH17 either. Sanctions against Russia will mount. In my opinion the only away is to remove Russia from the banking SWIFT and IBAN codes system. This will have an effect on Putin’s position inside 24 hours. But it would also damage lots of European businesses as well. It is a case of just how far the world’s leaders want to go.

Data has also been mixed this week causing uncertainty and making it quite difficult to do nothing else but scalp currencies.

GERMAN:                  PPi was below expectations
UNITED STATES:    Core CPi missed but CPi was in line with expectations.
AUSTRALIAN:           CPi was in line with expectations.
CANADIAN:               Core Retail Sales missed but Retail Sales beat.
JAPAN:                       Flash Manufacturing PMi missed.
CHINA:                       HSBC Flash Manufacturing beat expectations.
GERMAN:                  IFO was below expectations.
GERMAN:                  Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI beat expectations.
FRENCH:                  Flash Manufacturing PMi missed.
FRENCH:                  Services PMi beat expectations.
SPANISH:                  Unemployment fell.
EUROZONE:              Overall Manufacturing PMi missed expectations.
EUROZONE:              Overall Services PMi beat expectations.
UK:                              GDP in line with expectations, but Retail Sales missed.
UNITED STATES:    New Home Sales and Manufacturing PMi data both missed.
JAPAN:                       CPi in line.
GERMAN:                  Business Confidence was below expectations.
UNITED STATES:    Core and Durable Goods were both good numbers.

Leading on from these numbers the ranges just got tighter as the week progressed and yesterday (Friday 25th) the USD flexed and USD strength came through the market leaving some very interesting weekly closes and daily candles.

The result of this USD strength is that this weekend, when the financial institutional “geeks” that look closely at the currency charts start looking at weekly closing levels and chart patterns, they may be recommending some target changes moving forward. Should this happen, to me, it suggests, it must a bias in the direction of strength in the USD. Time will tell and we should know very soon with early moves in particular from Europe this coming week.

Moving on: -

Presently, I have 9 live trades with 5 limit order entry trades in the background. As I have repeatedly stated all my position sizes are well within my RISK MANAGEMENT tolerances and in line with my TRADING PLAN entry and exit disciplines. PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers will be aware that I am adding to positions and taking profits off the table at the same time. I am making trades work for me as they progress, but I am also exercising so much additional patience waiting for moves to get momentum.

I am holding trades as long as I can, because I feel fundamentally, that I am in the trade the right way and they are coming good but it takes time and patience. The USD/CAD, EUR/CAD and GBP/CAD long trades are very typical examples of waiting a few days for the moves to trigger.

The NZD/USD is the best example. I had two separate short trades in operation. The initial trade (RADAR TRADE RT118) started on 25<sup>th</sup> June, it was a 28 day trade in total. This trade is typical of the current market conditions. As you know II have been writing for sometime lower RISK EXPOSURE and be patient. During the 28 days of the trade I added to my position size once and I also took 50% of my profits off the table as well when the trade was live. The end result shown in the PREMIUM SERVICE spreadsheets was a 28 day trade that yielded just 3 pips profit. During the trade through adding and covering part of my position the overall net profit including overnight swap costs was just 25% of my normal return due to RISK MANAGEMENT regarding smaller position sizes.

This is the current Forex market and we have to adapt, as I have written about a few times over the past month or so.

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<strong>2. THE PREMIUM SERVICE – OVERVIEW &amp; UPDATE:</strong>

As you will be aware this week’s blog will be the last one until September 6<sup>th</sup> 2014.

For new readers, I refer to the PREMIUM SERVICE quite a lot for more details about what it is, and, how much it costs, you will need to go the welcome page of <a href="http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>   At the top of the page there are three drop down menus: PREMIUM SERVICE, SIGN-UP and DISCLAIMER. Further details and how to join are all contained there. You will need at PayPal account to subscribe.

If you were thinking about subscribing to the PREMIUM SERVICE but were waiting for the summer lower volume trading doldrums to pass, you could do the following over the next three / four weeks and be set for September 1<sup>st</sup> when I start up 100% again with daily and weekly blogs and tweets etc.:
<ol>
	<li>If you wanted to keep PREMIUM SERVICE trades separate from your own trades you could set up an additional Broker account with BLACKWELL GLOBAL (but you must “click on” the banner on the welcome page of the WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU, this enables me to apply a marketing bonus of 30% on all balances above US$1,000 (maximum $3,000) to your account once opened. (My blog dated 30<sup>th</sup> June 2014 – “Why Subscribing to the PREMIUM SERVICE is a good idea” willprovideadditional information)and / or</li>
</ol>
<ol start="2">
	<li>If you pay now for your subscription to the PREMIUM SERVICE membership weeks which will not start counting until 6<sup>th</sup> September.</li>
</ol>
So if you wanted you could be all set with a separate broker and subscription ready for the September start again.

The PREMIUM SERVICE as mentioned a coupe of weeks ago, is going out on the road to attract additional subscribers. In a previous life I was a “Sales Trainer” amongst other things and this is one area that I loved. I see this as a great fit with my longer–term aspirations for the subscriber service.

In September, I will be starting with a series of presentations in Montreal, Canada as follows: -
<p style="text-align: left; padding-left: 120px;"><strong>DATES:          Saturday13<sup>th</sup> and Sunday 14<sup>th</sup> September 2014.</strong>
<strong>VENUE:         Hampton Inn and Suites.</strong>
<strong>ADDRESS:    1900 Rte. Transcanadienne (Nr. Blvd Des Sources), MONTREAL.</strong>
<strong>TIMES:           Saturday - 11.30AM, 2.30PM and 4.30PM.</strong>
<strong>TIMES:           Sunday - 2.30PM and 4.30PM.</strong></p>
Seating will be limited. If you are coming and want to reserve a place please contact me via email and I will confirm a front seat reservation.

If you are an existing subscriber and want to introduce yourself and say hello please come along if you have time to spare.

If you are an existing subscriber and have friends that are interested in Forex come along with them.

<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>

<strong>3. THE PREMIUM SERVICE - TRADING SUMMARY:</strong>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>RADAR, FLASH and FUNDAMENTAL TRADES
</strong><strong>JULY 2014 and YEAR to date:</strong></p>
<p style="text-align: left;">Below I show the up to date performances for my various trading styles. Full excel spreadsheets are in the subscriber area of the PREMIUM SERVICE website.</p>
Below are the excel spreadsheets covering this month so far and the year 2014 to date.

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/REM-SERV-PROFITS1-26072014.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-4142" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/REM-SERV-PROFITS1-26072014.png" alt="REM SERV PROFITS1 26072014" width="447" height="424" /></a>

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/PREM-SERV-PROFITS2-26072014.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-4143" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/PREM-SERV-PROFITS2-26072014.png" alt="PREM SERV PROFITS2 26072014" width="464" height="419" /></a>

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The above examples are for illustration purposes only:

The profitability examples detailed above are based solely upon single lot trading, regardless of lot type. If multiple lot sizes are traded the profitability margins will be different than those shown.

Just to provide more information so you understand where I am coming from with the risk / reward statements above. All of my trades are of different sizes and different size lot types. The above does not reflect the actual trading performance, but it does show you the direction of the performance of the trades placed.

I like to add to trades, profits are taken as the trade progresses and my overall cost average moves several times. All of my trades are of different lot styles. I trade a mixture of micro lots, mini lots and standard lots across my brokers.

The above results simply display your profit or loss if you placed a single lot trade on all the set-ups suggested and did nothing else.

<strong> </strong>

<strong>4. TRADING SUPPORT:</strong>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>FX BROKERS:
</strong><strong>PART 2
</strong><strong>HOW AND WHY DO I TRADE WITH MULTIPLE FX BROKER ACCOUNTS?</strong></p>
This is always an interesting topic when traders get together, maybe not so much as to how many broker relationships you have, but more in regard to who do you use as a broker? being a point of conversation.

Below I list what are the main conversation key subjects on almost every occasion, they are not always in this order, especially if someone has had a bad experience: -
<ol>
	<li>Account Management Support (Administration / Help Desk).</li>
	<li>Pip Spreads.</li>
	<li>Commissions in the spreads or separate…<strong>NOT</strong> both!!</li>
	<li>Overnight swap rates</li>
	<li>Execution Speeds.</li>
	<li>Slippage.</li>
	<li>Ease of transferring monies in and out of your trading account.</li>
	<li>Training Materials.</li>
	<li>Webinars.</li>
	<li>Bonuses: Remember you do not get these for nothing. There are no free lunches; but shopping around you can get these as a Marketing incentive from time to time, without affecting spreads. Without marketing incentives, you can see outrageous rate spreads on even on the USD majors. Check around.</li>
</ol>
I have five broker relationships, two of which I use in conjunction with the PREMIUM SERVICE. My other brokers are not part of the PREMIUM SERVICE I use them for various types of trades, position style and sizes and for various currency pairs.

Why have more than one broker and how do I trade with more than one broker?

I approach multiple broker relationships from two aspects: -

Firstly, your Internet connection is paramount to enable you to trade. You should always have a backup facility at home to enable you to keep in touch with the market. This risk also applies to your broker – they can also have connectivity issues, therefore, I think that just in case your brokers’ connection locks or fails for whatever reason it is also wise to have a backup broker. On this point always have your brokers telephone numbers for dealing desks etc close at hand in case of emergencies.

Secondly, from a trading perspective, many traders who trade with multiple brokers may have different reasons for more than one relationship but here are my reasons.
<ol>
	<li>I like to trade using MONEY MANAGEMENT disciplines that come from my detailed TRADING PLAN. I have written on many occasions in blogs and on Twitter PLAN YOUR TRADES and TRADE YOUR PLAN.Trading with multiple brokers gives me total flexibility, control and measurement of performance with my trading and from a RISK MANAGEMENT perspective I am still in 100% control and I am able to measure the effectiveness of my trading very easily.

You can of course achieve this from a single broker approach; however, I want to see instantaneously what returns I am achieving from different styles of trading. The multiple broker approach gives me this.</li>
	<li>I decided in 2013 moving forward with my trading goals andobjectives that I would separate out different types of trades via different brokers so that I could instantly measure results from different trade styles, whilst still TRADING MY TRADE PLAN.As you are aware I trade three styles of trade: -

FLASH TRADES: – Almost all of the time based on a pullback strategy, alternatively off a “Pivot Point”. They are most of the time intra-day trades but they can develop into swing trades.

RADAR TRADES: - These tend to be based around much larger pullbacks that coincide with either Fibonacci levels or Pivot Points. These trades tend to be of at least a day or two maybe even a week in length, and, they could develop into longer-term trades.

FUNDAMENTAL TRADES: - These trades are those that I see that Fundamental news will override the technical aspect of trading over the longer-term. These trades are typically very long term.</li>
	<li>I then looked at my broker relationships and decided which broker fitted what type of trade style best and what currencies each broker is best to trade with.By breaking down my broker relationships by trading style this gave me an instant snapshot as to how my trade styles were progressing.

So I am able to split trade styles by broker and additionally trade specific currency pairs by broker.

Below is how I have split my broker relationships for 2014: -

BROKER 1 = FUNDAMENTAL TRADES.
(Using primarily multi MICRO lots, but also MINI lots)

BROKERS 2 and 3 = RADAR TRADES.
(Using all STANDARD, MINI and MICRO lots)

BROKERS 4 and 5 = FLASH TRADES.
(Using both STANDARD and MINI lots)</li>
	<li>By being able to trade different styles with different brokers this meant that for longer term trades on the more volatile pairs I use a broker were they offerthe option of trading in MICRO LOTS. This means that I am able to trade multiple lots keep my flexibility on position sizes and accommodate the very large ATR’s (AVERAGE TRUE RANGES) and at the same time manage my risk within theparameters of my TRADING PLAN.By selecting an appropriate broker for a specific style of trade or currency pair enables focus and clarity when checking both, limit or open orders.</li>
</ol>
<ol start="5">
	<li>Broker relationships are crucial and lots of commentsare made about “rate spreads” and “swap rates overnight”. By not being tied into one single relationship you are able to compare performance and cost between suppliers. This not only keeps your brokers on their toes, because FX is now a very, very competitive business, but it enables you to visually see if you are you getting the best deal from each of your trading relationships.One thing that I have learnt is that many brokers tend to over promise and under deliver. By being able to view a wider range of brokers instantaneously one is able to keep up to date with events should one broker move spreads and the others do not follow suit.</li>
</ol>
On my website I have the following brokers listed: -

BLACKWELL GLOBAL

FXCM

I trade with both of them and they are completely different on rate spreads, swap rates, currency pairs that you can trade and basic account management support.

In addition I have my other broker connections (FX PRO, ALPARI and SAXO BANK) for specific types of trades and currencies. I trade on my two super fast computers with six screens, my MacBook air, iMac and iPad all the various Forex platforms; c/Trader, MT4 and now I am in a beta test on the new MT5 platform.
All platforms offer something different and the charting packages vary on complexity or ease of use.

But by using all of my brokers I can ensure that I am maximizing what each one can give me by way of performance. This is very useful and critical to the success of your trading, in my opinion.

<strong>SUMMARY:</strong>

“Brokers are an essential evil”, I read this at the outset of my trading experience seven years ago. I am not so sure they are evil but as with most things in life you pay for what you get. The good people that you interact with tend to stay at the good brokers and move away if the broker is not good. It takes very little time in most cases to see if a broker is good or not at meeting your most basic needs. Take your time and shop around.

Trading multiple brokers may not be your thing. However, if you are a PREMIUM SERVICE subscriber you may want to keep these trades separate from your own and measure performance and cost effectiveness. I use multiple brokers to break my Forex trading even further into trade types. It depends on your needs and wants if you want to drill down to that level.

This works for me. It may not for you, but the cost of trying to see if it might work for you is not that great.

Should you want to try an additional broker all you have to do is click on any of the broker “Banners” on my web site and you will be taken to an application form to complete. You could even open a demo account first to check that you can get comfortable with the platform if it unfamiliar to you.

If you have any questions about this article please contact me on email at premiumservice@weeklyfxdrivethru.com

<strong> </strong>

<strong>5. LOOKING FORWARD…THE KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS:</strong>

<strong>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3429.</strong> The EUR/USD closed the week very close to its lowest level of the week, which was at 1.3421. I think that it is safe to say that the bears are now in control. Looking at charts there really isn’t much by the way of support until we hit 1.3380. The bear flag formation that I have tweeted and posted shows a measured move objective of about 1.3250. This is my initial target, it may not be a straight one way decline over the next few sessions but in my opinion once below 1.3380, it's a question of when we hit 1.3250 not if. Looking upwards, resistance is at 1.3480.

<strong>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.6974</strong>. The cable continues to follow the EUR/USD lower. Carney’s bullsh*t address at the Lord Mayor of London’s Mansion House dinner was complete bullsh*t. He has backtracked at almost every opportunity ever since and data from the UK has been mixed to say the least. Whilst, the GBP/USD still has an upward look about it on the longer-term charts, at 1.6950 we hit very important previous candlestick tops on the charts. If this level holds and we bounce the uptrend remains intact, if not we definitely turn bearish in my opinion. Resistance is back at 1.7020.

<strong>AUD/USD: Closing Price 0.9394</strong>. Virtually unchanged in the past week, once again that’s two weeks back to back with no real move. The range is tight at 0.9320 to 0.9460.

<strong>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8553</strong>. Graeme Wheeler, the RBNZ governor must be sleeping easier and I would imagine he did the Lotto after the rate announcement last Wednesday because he increased rates as promised and the NZD pulled back. The announcement of basically “We’re done with rate hikes” was enough for the future / forward pricing Forex markets to halt the climb and pull back. Wheeler also really emphasized that the Kiwi is way over-valued and should be substantially lower. There it is….. the next guessing game with the NZD is now in play. How low should it go? If you recall Wheeler first started talking the pair down around 0.8000. In my opinion I think the RBNZ are looking at between 0.7600 and 0.7800. To get to these levels would in my opinion require either substantial help from the USD strengthening beyond belief and the equity markets pulling back with a 20% correction. Failing these actions, the RBNZ would need to do more than just verbal intervention. For now my trading range to look at is from 0.8500 to 0.8640.

<strong>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.0803.</strong> A very nice breakout to the upside, and as I am long nearly all CAD pairs I am very happy. The range is now 1.0750 to 1.0875.

<strong>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.9045</strong>. I missed my opportunity to establish a long position with this pair although it is on my TRADES ON MY RADAR list. I see 0.900 to 0.9085 as the immediate range to look at.

<strong>USD/JPY: Closing Price 101.75. </strong>I am now short this pair and in 24 hours I have seen a 25 pip trading range. Yes…. Summer is here. The range that I am looking at is 101.50 to 102.25.

<strong> </strong>

<strong>6. MAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:</strong><strong> </strong>

SUNDAY: N/A.

MONDAY: N/A

TUESDAY: N/A.

WEDNESDAY: USD – ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, GDP &amp; FOMC.

THURSDAY: CAD - GDP.
THURSDAY: CNY – Manufacturing PMi.
THURSDAY: AUD - PPi.

FRIDAY: GBP – Manufacturing PMi.
FRIDAY: USD – Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Rate.
FRIDAY: USD – ISM Manufacturing PMi.

<strong> </strong>

<strong>7. FINAL THOUGHTS:</strong>

This is the final WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU until 6<sup>th</sup> September. I am around next week on twitter and my DAILY FX POSTS will run until the end of the week. As I have written and tweeted across both twitter accounts for quite sometime we have been in the depths of the summer doldrums for quite sometime and frankly, trading in the summer is boring and at the same time it involves more risk because the markets are less liquid. It just makes sense from my perspective to take a break.

If you one of many traders that cannot stop and are 100% totally addicted, please take it easy on trade position sizes and bear in mind that markets will be less financially supported until mid-September at the earliest. Always, PLAN YOUR TRADES and TRADE YOUR PLAN regardless of market activity, in addition continue to exercise TRADING DISCIPLINE and do <strong>NOT</strong> FORCE TRADES as the chances are you run a much higher risk than normal of being caught out on the wrong side.

Take care and good luck in the interim, see you in September.

Scott Pickering
The Pip Accumulator
Saturday July 26th 2014

EMAIL / FOLLOW ME AT:
drivethru@weeklyfxdrivethru.com
Twitter: @pipaccumulator
Google+/scottpickering

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