<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>THE DONALD, CROOKED HILLARY, BREXIT, </strong><strong>THE EUROZONE REFUGEE CRISIS,</strong>
<strong>GREECE BAILOUT IV, THE YEN/BOJ, </strong><strong>THE FED, THE RBA…</strong>
<strong> THE CIRCUS CONTINUES</strong></p>
<strong> </strong>
<ol>
 	<li><strong> INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>
</ol>
That was a very interesting week.

The USD broke below big support; I thought here we go, time to trade on the loo I am in for a severe beating. As a precaution, I exited all USD/CHF longs as GOLD was also playing up. A couple of hours after letting my three USD/CHF long trades have their stops taken, we got the mother of all bounces. Never ever underestimate the power of the USD; it ripped good style. I must appear to my subscribers as a total “Big girl’s blouse” being “wussied out” of the USD/CHF trades.

Having said that, we made great profits and some great pips on the USD/CAD which ripped out of the base of its wedge, powering higher, amongst other pairs, but the USD/CAD move stands out last week when talking about USD majors.

Dare I say that, maybe for a few more days we may have a directional market… there you go I‘ve spoilt it for everyone. Fasten your seat belts on Monday / Tuesday next week!

One peculiar event last week, was my “G” trades that I had set up and mentioned in last weeks blog, 5 out of the 7 triggered, the USD/CHF booked a 200 pip loss and last Thursday at the New York close at 5PM all the other trades live or not were cleared from my screens. Fortunately the net position on the 5 trades that triggered was a positive +190 pips, which is great thank you very much, but it took me two emails and a bit of stress to find out why they are closed. Apparently on set up with this new broker I have there is a time out trade function that applies to not just LIMIT / STOP orders but also LIVE trades. I don't remember checking that box!!

Suffice to say, my “G” TRADES version 2.0 will be re-thought from an entry perspective, although, obviously the LIMITS will remain the same. I hope to have these tweeted and emailed out by Tuesday this week at the latest.

Note to self…. “Every broker appears to have their own little quirks to trading platforms, a bit more research would help and be conscious of boxes that are unchecked or checked”.

From an overall trading viewpoint APRIL was a great month for the PREMIUM SERVICE and May has started off solid.

I am basically a happy puppy!

Moving forward…

FREE PREMIUM SERVICE subscriptions, just to remind you; you could be the next winner of a free PREMIUM SERVICE subscription; if you subscribe to receive this free blog via my website <a href="http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>

You are automatically entered into a free monthly draw, once you’ve subscribed. Each month during 2016 one lucky blog subscriber will receive a free subscription to the PREMIUM SERVICE.

I go on tour in a few weeks and below I have included an excel spreadsheet detailing all the relevant information.

I leave on the big bird from Montreal to the UK and IRELAND to present what the PREMIUM SERVICE can do for you regardless of what stage or level of trader you are.

Spaces are limited so to register for an event, please go to my landing page on <a href="http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> and click on LIVE EVENTS. The drop down menu there has all the information that you will require. I would place it here but I would end up getting thousand’s of SPAM emails, which I want to avoid.

Please note that because of the TOUR, copies of this blog will have a revised format following dates: -
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>18<sup>th</sup> June 2016</strong>
<strong> 25<sup>th</sup> June 2016</strong>
<strong>2<sup>nd</sup> July 2016</strong></p>
&nbsp;

&nbsp;

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/TOUR-DATES-2016.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-7597" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/TOUR-DATES-2016.png" alt="TOUR DATES 2016" width="630" height="397" /></a><strong> </strong>
<ol start="2">
 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong><strong> </strong></li>
</ol>
<u>WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</u>

The PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber, fee based trade set-up option for Forex traders regardless of experience or background. I provide traders suggested trades, and some market commentary related to open trades or factors within the overall market that have my interest.

Full details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and the various trade styles plus how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href="http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.

Additional information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE you will require a PayPal account.
<p style="text-align: center;"><u>PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION COSTS:</u></p>
<p style="text-align: center;">It is touch and go whether or not the new payment gateway in CAD$ will be operating at the time this blog is posted.</p>
<p style="text-align: center;">I have placed the new pricing below in CAD$. If you go to the blog and there are still USD pricing indicators, it is not a problem, all will still work. I am expecting the switch over to happen sometime over the next 48 hours.</p>
<p style="text-align: center;">Details of features and benefits of a PREMIUM SERVICE subscription can be found on my website landing page at <a href="http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the dropdown tab at the top of the page entitled HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE OF THE PREMIUM SERVICE. To subscribe follow the SUBSCRIBE HERE tab.</p>
<p style="text-align: center;">PREMIUM SERVICE subscription costs are as follows: -</p>
<p style="text-align: center;">CAD$240.00 - 4 weeks (1 month)
CAD$500.00 - 10 weeks (3 months)
CAD$750.00 - 20 weeks (6 months)
CAD$1,250.00 - 40 weeks (12 months)
<u>PLUS</u>: Existing PLATINUM MEMBERS (annual subscribers) can re-subscribe for a further 12 months for CAD$1,000.00

I work for 40 weeks or so a year, the annual subscription is based on 40 published blogs of the WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU. For the remaining 12 weeks of the year, I am usually around tweeting and managing existing LIVE trades.</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><u>PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE THIS MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:
</u>
NET PIPS THIS MONTH SO FAR:            +259
NET PIPS THIS YEAR SO FAR:                +4,073</p>
<p style="text-align: center;">NET PIPS 2015:       +10,686
NET PIPS 2014:       +11,209
(I trade basically for 10 months a year. I do not trade from mid July through early September or mid December through early January).</p>
If you want more data or detail about the performance and the tabs on my website landing page do not answer your questions, contact me directly and I will supply the trading data you require. There are NO secrets. There are many, many spreadsheets detailing performance trade by trade and by trade and by trading style, way too many to place in this blog. If you are interested in the PREMIUM SERVICE and want more information, all you have to do is ask.

<strong> </strong>
<ol start="3">
 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>
</ol>
<strong>LAST WEEK’S NEWS – MY THOUGHTS:</strong>

As stated earlier, last week was an interesting week. From my perspective the highlights were: -

RBA:

A surprise interest rate cut on Tuesday followed up on Thursday with the Monetary Policy Statement basically saying more cuts on the way. The usual growth, and inflation targets were revised, something that every central bank seems to do with ease, and a note about the housing bubble in Sydney.

Yup… feck all, the moves in raw materials and basic commodities, its all the basic stuff that comes back to haunt central banks.

They are just NOT learning, some eight years after a global Financial crash and there is still no coordination, no joint effort.

It is a currency war, whichever way you look at these matters. Keep your rose-tinted glasses on if you like, but let’s call a spade a spade for God’s sake.

It’s all for one and one for yourself.

On another separate issue with the RBA it appears that Glenn Steven’s tenure as governor draws to a close on September 18<sup>th</sup> this year. He will be replaced by Philip Lowe his current deputy, who must have been so far up Glenn’s bottom, we have never heard a peep out of him for months.

Great time to get the job lets see if “our Phil” can live to his name and drive the RBA interest rate lower towards 1.00%!

&nbsp;

NON-FARM PAYROLLS:

A weak number:

Hourly earnings 0.3% in line
Unemployment Rate 5.0% in line
Employment Change 160,000 expectations were 203,000

The USD huffed and puffed / spiked / dropped / bounced around and ended the day stronger than when it started. The DXY bounce from below support has been impressive and it looks like it will continue for a while.

Obviously, the FED interest rate “hike on hike off” debate continues. Whether June is a LIVE meeting or not to potentially increase interest rates still motors on and it will gather pace as we move through this month. Next months NFP numbers will have CNBC and BLOOMBERG on overdrive pending the June 14-15 meeting and press conference.

Nothing much else interested me last week that requires a comment in this section, yes there was news but as always when the NFP data is due all else seems to fade a little into the background.

<strong> </strong>

<strong>WHAT’S BIG ON MY MIND:</strong>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>THE DONALD, CROOKED HILLARY, BREXIT, THE EUROZONE REFUGEE CRISIS, </strong>
<strong>GREECE BAILOUT IV, THE YEN/BOJ, THE FED, THE RBA… </strong>
<strong>THE CIRCUS CONTINUES</strong></p>
Financial writers associated closely or not with the Forex markets will look back on 2016 as a watershed year for many reasons. I cannot believe in week one of the fifth month of the year I am writing about the year in review.

I feel as if we have seen a years worth of events already, and, as just stated we are not even half way through the year yet.

I remember when I first started trading Forex. We had a directional market, placing trades and assessing the risk / reward to trades was fairly straightforward. At the end of the day, although we like to complicate trading, it is when all factors are broken down a rather simple assessment of buying dips and selling rips. Fundamentally, to make a living out of trading the Forex Market, that is what needs to be managed, and the skills associated with it understood and controlled. Then add all the DISCIPLINES of POSITION SIZING, RISK &amp; MONEY MANAGEMENT, TRADING PSYCHOLOGY required into a TRADE PLAN and off you go.

Why did it all get rather blurred? I am NOT breaking out into song with a version of Robin Thick’s “Blurred Lines” at this point, but we seem to have developed, at times in my opinion, an over-complicated marketplace with way too much data to adequately digest to make a decision. That sentence comes from a self-proclaimed fundamental trader, which may sound strange. But, even I find myself at times in a state of analysis paralysis…WTF!

We are no doubt now in a global marketplace and a positive push or pull in one area of the world has the opposite effect in another part of the globe almost immediately.

I think that we are now as much gossip news driven, as we are economic data driven. This year we have witnessed a blatant disregard for central bank policy, the ECB and BOJ are the best examples but there are more. The markets simply raised an index finger vertically at Mario Draghi (ECB) and Haruhiko Kuroda (BOJ) attempts to move markets based upon central bank policy changes. In the past, the Forex market was driven as a future-pricing tool extensively based upon central bank monetary policy… things have certainly changed.

We enter the next 90 days as participants into the “Greatest show on earth” as Barnum used to say, and I haven’t even mentioned my own TOUR of the UK and IRELAND!!

Talk about uncertainty: -

THE DONALD v CROOKED HILLARY:

God only knows how this is going to play out. I can guarantee you that it will not be pretty. This is all self-inflicted; the GOP appear so detached from reality, never learnt from past experience. If there was an example of poor ineffective management here it is. Too little too late should be the GOP strapline on communications.

From July through November, Don Henley’s “Dirty Laundry” will be played on so many TV stations as the accusations and insults fly from one to the other.

Irrespective of political affiliation the uncertainty in the “one-world” market will affect our day-to-day routines as traders. We will be subjected to sound-byte moves in markets.

&nbsp;

THE BREXIT:

Another gem of uncertainty, the UK referendum vote takes place on June 23<sup>rd</sup> 2016. I will be flying from Heathrow to Dublin that day, yummy!

This is not just a UK issue, whilst it is about the UK deciding upon its future, the BREXIT decision will affect the EUROZONE just as much.

Even though we talk and debate about a BREXIT, do not forget the EUROZONE RISKS that are attached. I have written before that longer-term country-by-country fiscal updates are required. The ECB can only do and go so far. To fix, growth and unemployment (just two areas, there are more) this now requires more than the ECB centrally. We are now looking at government policy changes.
<strong>
</strong>A BREXIT will throw the cat amongst the pigeons in the EUROPEAN UNION, as extreme political parties will see an opportunity to try and force a contagion effect. Should the UK leave the money available for poorer countries in the EUROPEAN UNION is severely reduced. The UK is one of the few net contributors.

To me its obvious that the ramifications of a BREXIT will affect the EUROZONE just as much as it will in the UK.

This is a massive geopolitical effect, with huge uncertainty attached to it, as the decision appears to still remain in the balance.

&nbsp;

THE EUROZONE REFUGEE CRISIS and GREECE BAILOUT IV:

The EUROZONE does NOT have the political will across all 27-member states to tackle the problems it faces.

The cultural differences to resolving issues are so diverse that the only solution the EUROZONE can ever agree on is to “kick the can down the road”.

The most cash strapped country in the EUROZONE is GREECE and it is front and centre the most popular entry point for refugees from Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, and Libya etc. Errors are being made in the validations and confirmations of refugees. It is a human disaster of enormous proportions and sadly given the world we now live in terrorists are moving through along with genuine cases.

Add to this the fact that Alexis Tsipras cannot get through the GREEK parliament all the changes / reforms agreed to with Jeroen Dijsselbloem and the EUROZONE finance ministers as well as the troika for bailout monies. In reality, to get the GREEK parliament to sign off on some of the agreement is tantamount to turkeys voting for Christmas.

Therefore, we enter another, will they / wont they / should they / dare they series of meetings and at the end, the existing bailout will be tweaked rather than resolved or fixed and BAILOUT IV will be announced

As written so many times before, the debt that GREECE has to repay is basically impossible to manage. Debt relief is required and whilst the IMF is willing the EUROZONE is not.

It is without doubt a modern day GREEK TRAGEDY and at some point, the GREEK parliament will mandate the phrase “F*ck off and die” to the EUROZONE and GREECE will default.

Are these acceptable risks for the Troika to take? The stakes are higher than we can imagine. If something gives here, we are talking a right fecking mess of a problem.

Some politicians in the EUROZONE will go down in the history books NOT for good reasons over this potential shambles.

&nbsp;

THE YEN and the BOJ:

All talk…. I admit the markets want action, when in reality they have been given the kitchen sink, the bathroom fittings in gold with a bidet as well. The BOJ has the largest QE program in operation. It will be buying dog licenses next.

However, we live in strange times. The BOJ today is living with the problems from the past. They were all talk and no action; today the markets don't believe the jawboning. They want to see the colour of their money on the table.

The next BOJ policy meeting should be a little gem.

&nbsp;

THE FED:

I still stand almost alone believing Janet Yellen is a ditherer. She is so much of a DOVE, she has ripped all pages relating to the letter H out of the dictionary, so she has no idea of what a HAWK is.

I stand mostly alone again; I blame the FED for a great deal of the uncertainty this year so far. We are told one thing, given clear objectives and then we get hesitancy and a pullback from the original goalposts that were set.

I have said many, many times before, that the mandate of the FED is domestic, it can view internationally, but its mandate is the U.S. economy. I believe the international situation is used to keep Wall Street sweet and maintain a ZIRP (Zero interest Policy). I count 0.25% for the biggest and best economy in the world ZIRP.

In the next 90 days we have two FOMC meetings with press conferences on June 15<sup>th</sup> and July 27<sup>th</sup>. I would say we will get something by way of a rate hike out of one or both of these meetings. This dithering is making the markets very twitchy.

If Yellen’s goal is uncertainty she already has a gold star.

&nbsp;

THE RBA:

We have a contagion effect on the way in my opinion with regards to three central banks. The RBNZ already on a rate cutting policy will be joined by the BOC.

Economic Data from Canada is mixed; the dreadful wildfires in Fort McMurray, Alberta are going to probably place enormous stress on the Canadian system locally and in Ottawa. It is already being spoken of as being the largest insurance claim event in Canada’s history. Given the OIL situation this will place a GDP burden on Canada as Oil production is suspended and to stimulate and give confidence interest rates will be cut, I have absolutely no doubt about this.

So the CIRCUS is in town for the next 90 days, and, probably even longer, inside the next three months so much is timed to happen, it will be a news driven period like never before seen.

As traders all we can do is react and respond. One factor that is in our control is POSITION SIZING. I would say that the next 90 days will be a test of our RISK MANAGEMENT skills. They will definitely be put to the test a few times that is guaranteed.

<strong> </strong>
<ol start="4">
 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) EXCLUSIVE CONTENT:</strong></li>
</ol>
(This area contains exclusive content for PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) subscribers)

<strong> </strong>
<ol start="5">
 	<li><strong> COMING UP THIS WEEK:</strong></li>
</ol>
<u>THIS WEEK’S FOREX NEWS THAT INTERESTS ME:</u>

(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market other than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to <a href="http://www.forexfactory.com">www.forexfactory.com</a> and <a href="http://www.tradingeconomics.com">www.tradingeconomics.com</a> for a more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).

SUNDAY: N/A.

MONDAY: N/A.

TUESDAY: NZD – Financial Stability Report and Wheeler (RBNZ) speaks twice!

WEDNESDAY: N/A.

THURSDAY: GBP – BOE inflation report, Interest rate &amp; Carney (BOE) speaks.
THURSDAY: NZD – Retail Sales.

FRIDAY: USD – Core Retail Sales, Retail Sales and PPi.

<u> </u>

<u>THE USD MAJORS – MY THOUGHTS (A REVIEW): </u>

(In this section I have as usual kept my charts as minimalist as possible. With regards to charting in my opinion less is more!! I hope that they are clear. All readers regardless of level of experience should be able to follow my thoughts from my comments to the levels on the charts with ease)

My comments are contained on the charts.

EUR/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.1402

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/EURUSD-D-07052016.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-7814" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/EURUSD-D-07052016-1024x481.png" alt="EURUSD D 07052016" width="1024" height="481" /></a>

GBP/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.4427

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/GBPUSD-D-07052016.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-7815" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/GBPUSD-D-07052016-1024x481.png" alt="GBPUSD D 07052016" width="1024" height="481" /></a>

AUD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.7366

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/AUDUSD-D-07052016.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-7813" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/AUDUSD-D-07052016-1024x481.png" alt="AUDUSD D 07052016" width="1024" height="481" /></a>

NZD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.6835

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/NZDUSD-D-07052016.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-7816" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/NZDUSD-D-07052016-1024x481.png" alt="NZDUSD D 07052016" width="1024" height="481" /></a>

USD/CAD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.2908

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USD-CHF-D-07052016.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-7817" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USD-CHF-D-07052016-1024x481.png" alt="USD CHF D 07052016" width="1024" height="481" /></a>

USD/CHF - Weekly Closing Price: 0.9724

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDCAD-D-07052016.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-7818" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDCAD-D-07052016-1024x481.png" alt="USDCAD D 07052016" width="1024" height="481" /></a>

USD/JPY - Weekly Closing Price: 107.10

<u><a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDJPY-D-07052016.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-7819" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDJPY-D-07052016-1024x481.png" alt="USDJPY D 07052016" width="1024" height="481" /></a></u>

<u> </u>

<u>MY CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>

In direct opposite to how we ended the previous weeks trading, the USD was in control once again. A very spectacular turnaround by all accounts and it just shows what a powerful currency the USD is. Over the previous two weeks it had played second fiddle to the JPY.

News is a bit thinner this coming week, but as I have written earlier in the blog, THE CIRCUS IS IN TOWN. Be conscious of the news events and effects that news sound bytes can have. Personally, I would trade smaller position sizes until the summer, at least.

Always remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.

Take care,

Scott Pickering
The Pip Accumulator

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/">https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>

DATE: 7<sup>th</sup> May 2016
BLOG REFERENCE: #200 FREE NEWSLETTER VERSION