<b><span style="text-decoration: underline;">1. INTRODUCTION:</span></b>

I am aware from feedback received since my last blog, that some of my followers to this blog directly, or from Twitter and the other social networks, are tracking the 6 trades mentioned in the last Weekly Fx Drive-Thru dated 24<sup>th</sup> August 2103. I therefore thought that it would be a great idea, prior to my vacation starting tomorrow, to update you, as to where I am with the six trades referred to in the blog and add any further thoughts that I may have.

With the majority of the trades, I have taken profits off the table and re-entered to establish positions. All the trades are small trades, and, I view them as all longer-term fundamental trades that are in different stages of alignment with technical levels. I openly admit I am ahead of the technical levels in or two places but all trades are within my trading plan account management levels.

At the back of my mind I am conscious that news from the Middle East (Syria and Egypt) are weighing in on the markets plus there is a plethora of economic data that is market moving next week, and, with all this in mind I am debating very seriously do I keep the trades associated  specifically with the USD still in play or not? I am trading very small positions, and my booked trades with my brokers are small trades as well, so at this stage I am prepared to take on the risk.

So, whilst travelling over the next 10 days or so, I will keep myself updated with the Fx markets as I will need my daily fix. Should I decide to change direction with my thought processes I will try to update via twitter.

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<b><span style="text-decoration: underline;">2. THE SIX TRADES FROM LAST WEEKS BLOG:</span></b>

<b>TRADE: 1 - AUD/NZD: (LIVE TRADE) - PRESENTLY -24 pips</b>

I have been in and out of this trade a couple of times due to me being spooked by the Syrian crisis. Fundamentally, I see this pair going higher, but it is struggling with rising above the1.1600 level. It is an irritating trade for me at the moment but as soon as it moves higher and confirms the move it should be good...I hope. It is very well supported at a 38% Fibonacci retracement around 1.1370, so I am using this as my base support.

ENTRY (Cost Average): 1.1522
STOP LOSS: 1.1350
LIMIT (Target): (1) 1.1875, then (2) 1.1949, then (3) 1.2150
TRADE SIZE: 20%

<b>TRADE: 2 - GBP/CAD: (BOOKED TRADE)</b>

I have taken losses on this pair over the past few days, basically, because I entered into the trade too soon. I took it on the back of some great UK economic data but the move upwards in cable could not be sustained and this pair came close to a breakout, but not close enough. A very basic and foolish error on my part. I could have banked profits but I was greedy expecting a push through what is a big resistance level. I am now therefore waiting for a confirmed break above 1.6550 before attempting a re-entry trade. I have an order placed at this level with stops and limits as set out below.

(STOP ORDER) ENTRY: 1.6550
STOP LOSS: 1.6400
LIMIT (Target) 1.8100
ENTRY TRADE SIZE: 10%

<b>TRADE: 3 - GBP/NZD: (BOOKED TRADE)</b>

This trade offers a huge potential. Above all, trading this pair you need to be patient and at times have nerves of steel. My approach is to trade small until the trade is established.

So far, I have been in the trade twice. Once I stopped myself out of the trade on the back of the Syrian news and the second time I incorrectly placed a stop (idiot) and  I was stopped out.

I am now waiting for a confirmed breakout above 2.000. Because the potential measured move profit opportunity is huge, I am not going to enter into this trade at the beginning of the measured move. I want to see it confirmed, so I am waiting about 100 pips into the move before entering. This is a very conservative approach, but I do believe that it is the correct one for my style of trading. This is a very, very volatile pair  and it moves far and very quickly therefore my cautious approach suits me and to trade it with wider stops is the order of the day. Its ATR (Average True Range) can be massive, but, overbought/oversold conditions most of the time do not apply to this currency pair.

(STOP ORDER) ENTRY : 2.0125
STOP LOSS: 1.9805
LIMIT (Target): 2.2450
ENTRY TRADE SIZE: 10%

If the cup and handle measured move plays out, this will be a very, very profitable trade.

<b>TRADE: 4 - USD/JPY: (BOOKED TRADE)</b>

My buy order is still in the system. It was based upon a down sloping trend line, which is now sub 99.00. I am leaving the order in position at my original level, which, should mean that if the trade starts we have a confirmed break. It is a very small trade so I am prepared to take this risk.

(LIMIT ORDER) ENTRY: 99.20
STOP LOSS: 98.50
LIMIT: 104.45
ENTRY TRADE  SIZE: 20%

<b>TRADE: 5 - USD/CAD: (LIVE TRADE) - PRESENTLY -14 pips</b>

I have been in and out of this pair so many times over the past few days. I do see this pair as being bullish as long as it remains above 1.0440. If you look at a 60 minute or 240 minute chart there is a bullish flag formation that measures a move to about 1.0650 from a breakout level of 1.0512. My current parameters are as follows: -

ENTRY (COST AVERAGE): 1.0527
STOP LOSS: 1.0422
LIMIT: 1.0850
POSITION SIZE: 20%

I am trading at a loss at the moment, but as long as we hold the previously good support level at 1.0440 I am not too worried.

<b>TRADE: 6 - NZD/USD: (LIVE TRADE) - PRESENTLY +62 pips</b>

I have been short, taken profits and re-shorted this pair a couple of times. I see this pair going a lot lower should we break through 0.7730. I will add on a break below this figure.

On the Daily chart there is a potential flag formation that starts at 0.7730, with a measured move lower to 0.7100.

ENTRY (COST AVERAGE): 0.7817
STOP LOSS: 0.7891
LIMIT: (1) 0.7500, then (2) 0.7100…. my Armageddon target 0.6550.
POSITION SIZE: 20%

<b>TRADE: 7 - (BONUS TRADE) AUD/USD: (LIVE TRADE) - PRESENTLY -3 Pips</b>

I am also short this pair. I was little uneasy shorting the “Aussie” as I felt it was grossly oversold and the potential for a snap back rally was high. I know see it as entering a new leg lower. I have added and taken profits over the past few days.

ENTRY (COST AVERAGE): 0.8917
STOP LOSS: 0.9018
LIMIT: 0.8000
POSITION SIZE: 20%

So to summarize; I am live in four live trades and I have three potential trades with limit/stop orders placed with my broker.

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<b><span style="text-decoration: underline;">3. MAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:</span></b>

SUNDAY: AUD – Building Approvals.

MONDAY: GBP – Manufacturing PMi
MONDAY: AUD – Retail Sales

TUESDAY: AUD – RBA Rate Statement and Interest Rates.
TUESDAY: GBP – Construction PMi
TUESDAY: USD – ISM Manufacturing PMi
TUESDAY: AUD - GDP

WEDNESDAY: GBP – Services PMi
WEDNESDAY: CAD – BOC Rate Statement and Interest Rates.
WEDNESDAY: CAD – Trade Balance.
WEDNESDAY: USD – Trade Balance.
WEDNESDAY: JPY – Monetary Policy Statement.

THURSDAY: JPY – BOJ Press Conference.
THURSDAY: GBP – Asset Purchase Facility and Interest Rates
THURSDAY: GBP – Monetary Policy Rate Statement
THURSDAY: USD – ADP Non Farm Employment Changes
THURSDAY: EUR – Interest Rate Statement and Press Conference.
THURSDAY: USD – ISM Non Manufacturing PMI

FRIDAY: CAD – Employment Change and Unemployment Rate.
FRIDAY: USD – Non Farm Payrolls and Unemployment rate.
FRIDAY: CAD – Ivey PMi

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<b><span style="text-decoration: underline;">4. BRIEF FINAL THOUGHTS:</span></b>

I think that I would be correct to say that next week is the biggest week of the year so far with regards to Fx news items that have significant importance. Given the fact that we are also in thin trading times, I am also thinking thank God that I away from my desk.

If ever there was a time to trade small…. this is surely it.

We are in volatile times; the Middle East is a powder keg waiting to go off and do not forget “Tapering” (How could we!), plus the US government debt ceiling is back in play, plus European news from the German elections, the Greek bailout Act III, Berlusconi flexing in Italy regarding breaking the fragile coalition. Add to this the Australian elections and emerging markets currency/debt issues and there is a case maybe just to watch matters unfold.

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See you next on September 14<sup>th</sup> 2013.

Good luck and take care.

Scott Pickering
The Pip Accumulator
Thursday August 29th 2013

FOLLOW ME AT:
Twitter: @pipaccumulator
StockTwits: www.stocktwits.com/thepipaccumulator

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