<h3 style="text-align: center;"><strong>THE PREMIUM SERVICE
</strong><strong>The Home of Single-Lot Trading
www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</strong></h3>
<strong>DATE: 24.05.2015
REFERENCE: #154
</strong><strong>BLOG: THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU</strong>

&nbsp;
<ol>
	<li><strong> INTRODUCTION - MY OVERVIEW OF THE FOREX MARKET:</strong></li>
</ol>
<u>LOOKING BACKWARDS, FORWARDS &amp; SIDEWAYS (FOR GOOD MEASURE) AT THE FX MARKET:</u>

<u>1.1 - LOOKING BACKWARDS:</u>

It was a strange trading week. It wasn’t the first strange one this year and without question, I think that I am safe to say that it will not be the last one either. I had to travel a little during the week so from my own trading perspective it was a little dis-jointed, but I also know that many subscribers found the week weird to trade for a number of factors and that they were tied to their computers all week.

FOMC MEETING MINUTES:

These always achieve premier billing when the week’s news is reviewed. The hype over when the FED will raise interest rates in the U.S. quite frankly now borders on the ridiculous. When will it happen…. as Frasier Crane once stated “Time is irrelevant here in the 7<sup>th</sup> circle of hell……this is the place where even despair dies”. This is how I feel on the subject. Will someone please stick a “red hot poker” up the collective ass of the FED and just do it. Feck the bloody data, it is always going to be mixed at best this year…do it …be done and lets move on.

If I hear Steve Liesman on CNBC anymore, whining about FED language and the data, I think I will be on Knob Creek and Diets for breakfast to accompany my famous, and, without doubt, best in the world Montreal bagel from Fairmont Bagel. I know that I am originally from Liverpool and have a low patience tolerance but give me a fecking break.

Moving on from the pleasantries, the minutes were neither one thing nor the other. Even the friggin FOMC committee is bored with when they should raise rates and what language should be released in the minutes. It looks like a hike in June is not going to happen but hey, never say never. September looks favourite now, but about a week ago it was never going to happen in 2015 the consumer data was sooooooo bad.

It’s all about Wall Street. The fund managers who suckle on the teat of the FED and cannot manage without their hands being held are now so spoilt, they expect the FED to say that it will happen precisely on this day at this time. Bernanke did a great job in my opinion but my God, he has spoilt Wall Street.

I question who runs the U.S. Its not the dysfunctional idiots in Washington who were elected by the people. All they do is inter-party squabble and place party and personal politics ahead of the countries national interest. Is it the FED that runs the U.S.? At times they appear to be one with Wall Street and not Main Street. Who looks after the people that need help in the U.S.? That is another blog to write…

EUROZONE PMi DATA and GERMAN ZEW AND IFO DATA:

Rather mixed in my opinion. Taking a view from a macro level. The EUROZONE data looks to be mainly improving, however, German data is not consistent. It is good to see French and Spanish data generally improving, but Italy must now be a concern. After GREECE defaults, the markets will be pressurizing the Italians next, and if, as I expect the Greeks are back with the Drachma, the Italians will want the Lira. The CONTAGION begins.

U.S. and CANADIAN CPi DATA:

Canadian Data was weaker than expected but the U.S. data on Consumer Prices was strong, sending the DXY higher (see below).

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/CPi-DATA-24052015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-5990" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/CPi-DATA-24052015.png" alt="CPi DATA 24052015" width="816" height="160" /></a>

&nbsp;

Quite frankly, the DXY looks to be in a bullish A+D = C=D style pattern, which, if (and it is a big if)…it plays out could place the DXY at 115.00. Where would that place the EUR/USD? Sub parity for sure.

Last Friday, on the back of consumer prices the USD went crazy taking the EUR/USD from 1.1160 to 1.0970 at one point before pulling back a little.

Inside Section 4 there is a chart of the USD Index (DXY) that I have included showing the potential of the DXY potential measured move and what this potentially means for us as Forex Traders from just one currency pair. I hope that I can expand on this matter next week.

Since the CPi data release, I have not viewed CNBC or BLOOMBERG as I do not think that I could take the commentary. It is amazing what a little bit of inflation data can do.

<u>1.2 - LOOKING FORWARDS:</u>

<u>MAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:</u>

<u>(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to </u><a href="http://www.forexfactory.com">www.forexfactory.com</a><u> and </u><a href="http://www.tradingeconomics.com">www.tradingeconomics.com</a><u> for more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).</u>
SUNDAY: N/A.

MONDAY: NZD – Trade Balance.

TUESDAY: USD - CB Consumer Confidence.

WEDNESDAY: BOC – Rate Statement.
WEDNESDAY: AUD – PCE Data.

THURSDAY: NZD – ANZ Business Confidence.

FRIDAY: GBP – GDP.
FRIDAY: USD – GDP.
FRIDAY: CAD – GDP.

<u>1.3 - LOOKING SIDEWAYS (FOR GOOD MEASURE!!): </u>

Whilst this blog goes as a FREE NEWSLETTER to subscribers via THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU web site, it is essentially a review for my PREMIUM SERVICE GOLD SUBSCRIBERS. Part of the blog is only for GOLD SUBSCRIBERS for obvious reasons and basically those who subscribe through my website or access it via social media get a feel for what is provided through the other “open” sections. This section refers to correspondence with subscribers over the past 7 days.

The main theme or questions, views and comments this week were: -

TRADING CONDITIONS and PROFITABILITY:

It is hard at the moment and I am saying this after a really good week of PREMIUM SERVICE trading. As I have told several of you, my own trading account varies in profitability from the PREMIUM SERVICE account. I operate the PREMIUM SERVICE account with single lot trades. These are placed across 4 different broker accounts.
<ul>
	<li>1 - COMMODITY X RATE PAIRS &amp; FUNDAMENTAL TRADES.</li>
	<li>2 – RADAR TRADES (USD MAJORS).</li>
	<li>3 – FLASH TRADES (USD MAJORS).</li>
	<li>4 – NON USD MAJOR TRADES.</li>
</ul>
These accounts make money.

With my own trading accounts, I trade different lot sized trades and my loss trades always seem to be those with a bigger position being traded. So pip wise the loss can be similar to the PREMIUM SERVICE but financially losses are multiplied. If you recall, I worked off my FXCM loss after the CHF peg removal and then some squeezes set me back.

I think that one of my subscribers described the market a month or so ago as “one step forwards and two steps backwards”. This is true as far as my personal trading is concerned. I am managing risk but my larger sized trades are unfortunately just not working out. I have had smallish pip losses, but larger $$$ losses than the single lot trades that are undertaken through the PREMIUM SERVICE. I hope that this makes sense to calculate. Common sense says why not trade all trades the same size, I wont trade GBP/NZD or any X rate pair the same size as a EUR/USD or EUR/GBP trade, so there has to be a difference. This is how and why overall performances can differ from those in the PREMIUM SERVICE

I sidetracked a little here but the bottom line is we are in a range bound market and there is still a lot of geopolitical news in the air. Whilst we may agree that the equity markets are at extremes, the markets are stretched and twitchy at these levels. The biggest buyers of shares are companies themselves re-purchasing stock and I would say that the markets are just waiting for a reason to pullback. This causes lack of correlation, which fuels uncertainty and this manifests itself through some strange moves neither FUNDAMENTALLY or DATA driven

Like many of you guys, I suffer as well. All I can say is slow and steady wins the race. The PREMIUM SERVICE single-lot trades offer all round consistency of a performance return.

TRENDING MARKET CONDITIONS:

I cannot see this happening until GREECE is out of the way. Only then do I think that the Central bank divergences will take a prime role. We have to be patient. It may never happen, but in section 4 (for subscribers only) I have aired my views on trades which, show some great $$$ opportunities should it happen. Some of the charts in section 4 this week in my opinion show the best $$$ opportunities we have had this year so far. They are all technical set ups that match and meet 100% with my FUNDAMENTAL views.

I could be bold and say this is the TRENDING MARKET but even though I am very positive, these trades will not move in straight lines as you know and they could take several moves along the way that may cut against the overall trending move.
<ol start="2">
	<li><strong><u> WHAT’S ON MY MIND: -
THE FUNDAMENTAL TRADERS OVERVIEW:</u></strong></li>
</ol>
<h3 style="text-align: center;"><strong>GREECE - THE OPTIONS... IS IT A or B?</strong></h3>
A short view this week, I keep being asked why am I so Anti-European?

The simple plain matter of fact is that I am not Anti-European, just anti the EUROZONE single currency and what it stands for and how it was introduced into so many countries without the people being able to vote. So much for European democracy!!

I could write for pages on this subject, so in advance, please forgive me for keeping this brief and at a high level.

Basically as I see it, GREECE has two options and for simplicity and consistency I am going to call them Option A and not surprisingly Option B.

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">OPTION A:</span>

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">GREECE DEFAULTS ON IT’S NEXT SET OF PAYMENTS TO ITS CREDITORS.</span>

For me, this is the most likely scenario.

What happens?

Initially, I expect CAPITAL CONTROLS. The Central Bank will issue firm rules on moving money in and out of the country and there will probably be cash limits on withdrawals from banks over the counter. I would expect cash machines to be taken off line.

Next, I expect that the GREEK GOVERNMENT will formally announce that they are withdrawing from the single-currency and that the Drachma will be re-introduced. It will probably be phased in as a parallel currency along the lines that the EUR was introduced back in the day to replace the Drachma. There is scaremongering going on stating that paying for items in EUR instead Drachma will be cheaper. There should be an official exchange rate between the two currencies to avoid that.

The markets…. equities I expect to close down for 48 hours or so. Bonds will be mental and the Forex Market will be on acid.

I expect the EUR/USD to fall initially quite hard and fast, however here are commentators that have told me directly that they expect the EUR to strengthen on the news of a GREECE exit. This is based upon the fact that the weak link is removed.

My view is somewhat different. I expect right wing groups in SPAIN, ITALY and PORTUGAL to grow in popularity and threaten political stability. This would be on the basis of, if GREECE can exit and have the Drachma back, we will have our Pesetas, Liras and Escudos back. Losing ones sovereign currency is a big thing. Unless you are European and lost your sovereignty you don’t get it.

I predict a CONTAGION effect.

This will keep the single currency pressured to the downside.

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">OPTION B:</span>

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">THE TRIOKA AGREE TERMS WITH GREECE TO EXTEND CREDIT FACILITIES – AGREE BAILOUT III</span>

This is what I will call the kicking of the can down the road solution. There is no better place on this glorious planet than the EUROZONE for can kicking.

Basically, GREECE gets terms that they feel that they can meet. We all know that severe cost cutting and selling prized assets is what the Tsipras led Government needs to do to achieve this result. That will not happen. It is NOT the GREEK psyche. Culturally NEVER going to happen. They may say that they will BUT they wont do it.

The only settlement is a haircut being agreed with creditors. Up to now creditors have stood firm - all or nothing. This is dead simple. Something is better than nothing. This is the only B option that will work in my opinion.

What happens?

The introduction of CAPITAL CONTROLS and the Drachma is avoided.

The equities and Forex markets will sell off and then bounce on the news. Then give it time…

The CONTAGION effect comes into play.

All governments that have had bailouts since the 2008-9 crash will want to be treated as the GREECE government has been treated. Essentially, why should bad behavior be rewarded? The Likes of PORTUGAL, IRELAND, CYPRUS etc will ask for their conditions to be reviewed and revised….they too will be looking for cheques in the post from Frankfurt.

On the news of refunds being demanded from various governments around the EUROZONE, the EUR/USD will fall under uncertainty. There will be calls of “refund or we leave”. The extreme parties will say one rule for one but not one rule for all, this is anti the agreement we co-signed at the outset.

This will keep the EUR/USD pressured to the downside.

You can agree with me 100%, 50% or whatever. You can disagree entirely with my thoughts. I will always have an opinion.

The simple fact is that something is going to happen and the name of the Jack Nicholson movie “Something’s Gotta Give” comes to mind.

<strong> </strong>
<ol start="3">
	<li><strong></strong><strong><u> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</u></strong>&nbsp;</li>
</ol>
<strong><u>SUMMARY OF PERFORMANCE:</u></strong>

<u>3.1 – OVERVIEW and SUBSCRIPTION OPTIONS, FEATURES and PRICING:</u>

For new readers who may not be aware, I refer to the PREMIUM SERVICE quite a lot in this blog and for more details about what it is, and, how much it costs, you will need to go the welcome page of <a href="http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>

At the top of my welcome page there are three drop down menus: -
PREMIUM SERVICE PROMOTIONS (if available)
SIGN-UP
DISCLAIMER

Further details and how to join are all contained there. You will need a PayPal account to subscribe.

Below I provide an overview of the GOLD and SILVER subscription options and pricing.

<u>GOLD MEMBER SUBSCRIPTION FEATURES &amp; PRICING OPTIONS:
</u>
<ul>
	<li>3 options on subscription periods.</li>
	<li>100% access to the PREMIUM SERVICE area of my website <a href="http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com">weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a></li>
	<li>A dedicated exclusive twitter feed for GOLD MEMBER subscribers only @ThePremService.</li>
	<li>All trade set-ups communicated via Twitter and RADAR and FUNDAMENTAL trades additionally via email when possible.</li>
	<li>The full and complete version of The WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU delivered weekly via an emailed PDF, and, viewable on line inside the PREMIUM SERVICE secure section of <a href="http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com">weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a></li>
	<li>My thoughts and comments on market conditions via twitter and/or email.</li>
</ul>
GOLD MEMBER SUBSCRIPTION OPTION PRICING:
(Please note that PayPal works in months NOT weeks)
10 weeks / 3 months:               USD $295.00
20 weeks / 6 months:               USD $495.00
40 weeks / 12 months:             USD $795.00

<u>SILVER MEMBER SUBSCRIPTION FEATURES &amp; PRICING OPTIONS:
</u>
<ul>
	<li>Simple 4 weekly (monthly) membership pricing.</li>
	<li>A dedicated exclusive twitter feed for SILVER MEMBER subscribers only @PremServSilver.</li>
	<li>All my trade set-ups delivered to you via the SILVER MEMBER subscriber twitter feed @PremServSilver.</li>
	<li>Access to the PREMIUM SERVICE website (relevant trade information only).</li>
	<li>The “FREE NEWSLETTER” version of THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU delivered weekly direct to you email inbox and viewable online at <a href="http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com">weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a></li>
</ul>
SILVER MEMBER SUBSCRIPTION OPTION PRICING:
(Please note that PayPal works in months NOT weeks)

4 weeks / 1 month:                    USD $100.00

<u>3.2 - SUMMARY OF PERFORMANCE:</u>

<u>3.2.1 – PREMIUM SERVICE – COST INCOME ANALYSIS (USD):</u>

&nbsp;
<p style="text-align: center;">EMANATING FROM TRADE SET-UPS - 2015 to date:</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><u>MICRO LOT TRADER</u> - 365 trades cost to trade = $36.50
<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 365 trades = <strong><u>$519.30</u></strong></p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><u>MINI LOT TRADER</u> - 365 trades cost to trade = $365.00
<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 365 trades = <strong><u>$5,193.00</u></strong></p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><u>STANDARD LOT TRADER</u> - 365 trades cost to trade = $3,650.00
<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 365 trades = <strong><u>$51,930.00</u></strong></p>
<p style="text-align: center;">If the above return from Forex Trading interests you go to</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> and check out the subscription options under the tab “PREMIUM SERVICE”.</p>
<p style="text-align: center;">The performance above is based off single-lot trade sizes.</p>
<p style="text-align: center;">THE PREMIUM SERVICE has subscribers with broker accounts of sizes ranging from $2,500 to over $100,000.</p>
<p style="text-align: center;">A profitable trade is a profitable trade. It is all about trading according to the size of your broker account (EFFECTIVE POSITION SIZING) and applying RISK MANAGEMENT principles at all times.</p>
&nbsp;

<u>3.2.2 - PREMIUM SERVICE - OVERALL TRADE SUMMARY MONTH &amp; YTD:</u>

&nbsp;

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/PREM-SERV-PROFITS1-24052015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-5991" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/PREM-SERV-PROFITS1-24052015.png" alt="PREM SERV PROFITS1 24052015" width="459" height="427" /></a>

&nbsp;

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/PREM-SERV-PROFITS2-24052015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-5992" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/PREM-SERV-PROFITS2-24052015.png" alt="PREM SERV PROFITS2 24052015" width="460" height="421" /></a>

&nbsp;
<ol start="4">
	<li><strong><u> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBER EXCLUSIVE CONTENT:</u></strong></li>
</ol>
(Section 4 is exclusive PREMIUM SERVICE content only available to PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers)

<u>4.1 - EDUCATION:
</u>(The full list of all items and more from this section can be found in the PREMIUM SERVICE website in the Trade Essential area under the EDUCATION tab.

<u>4.2 – THE PREMIUM SERVICE – TRADING REVIEW:</u>

<u>4.3 - THE PREMIUM SERVICE - EXISTING LIVE TRADES:</u>

<u>4.4 - THE PREMIUM SERVICE – EXISTING LIMIT ORDERS:</u>

<u>4.5 - POTENTIAL TRADES - WHAT CHARTS AM I LOOKING AT?</u>

<u>4.6 - MAJOR TRADING PAIRS WITH LONGER-TERM TRENDS MATCHING:</u>

<u>4.7 - THE KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS</u><strong><u>:</u></strong>

&nbsp;
<ol start="5">
	<li><strong><u> THE CONCLUSION - MY FINAL THOUGHTS:</u></strong></li>
</ol>
<u>5.1 - SUBSCRIBING TO THE “FREE VERSION” OF THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU:</u>

If you like what you have almost completed reading and want to have THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU delivered direct to your email inbox next week, here is what you do: -

Go to my website: - <a href="http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>

On the right hand side of the welcome page under my bio “about me” there is a blue box titled SUBSCRIBE TO FREE NEWSLETTER, click on profile and add your email address. It is as simple and straightforward as that.

I do NOT sell your email data to anyone…do not worry...one less thing to worry about

If you really like my way of explaining things…subscribe to either the PREMIUM SERVICE SILVER or GOLD by visiting my website <a href="http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>

<u>5.2 –TRADING TIPS &amp; THOUGHTS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD: </u>

Not much on the economic data front this week.

If I were pushed to give a surprise event other than GREECE being sorted…. sorry, just checked the Weather Channel, the BBC and CNN – Hell has not yet frozen over, it would be: to not rule out a slim chance that the BOC could cut interest rates on Wednesday by 0.25% to 0.50%. There is no press conference and no statement required this month.

Returning to GREECE. To say the position is desperate is an understatement of mammoth proportions. I have not changed my position; I think a default is the only solution with GREECE returning to the Drachma.

As always, there will be trades to trade and there will be some great opportunities, please trade in line with your RISK MANAGEMENT parameters from your TRADING PLAN. If you do not have a TRADE PLAN, in my opinion, you should, as this will help you with consistency.

<strong>Consistency = longevity in trading and that is a critical goal.
IT IS THE KEY MEASUREMENT</strong>

Before you enter a trade work out the risk, price it in $$$. Place your stop accordingly. PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers have a full library of information on RISK MANAGEMENT, RISK TOLERANCES and POSITION SIZING etc. available for reference 24x7.

Take care.

Scott Pickering
The Pip Accumulator
Sunday May 24th 2015

EMAIL / FOLLOW ME AT:
drivethru@weeklyfxdrivethru.com
Twitter: @pipaccumulator
Google+/scottpickering
Tumblr: thepipaccumulator

<u>VIEWS AND COMMENTS IN THIS BLOG:</u>

All the comments and views expressed in my blog are my thoughts and ideas only. They are based on my FUNDAMENTAL views of the markets and my thoughts on the individuals concerned on how they manage positions in the public domain. In addition, I have my own thoughts and views about what I think goes on behind closed doors. You should NOT base any trade ideas on my thoughts and views alone. As I have said on many occasions in my blog, I am a FUNDAMENTAL trader first, then a TECHNICAL trader second using chart analysis to establish what I believe to be excellent trade entry positions. However, you must make up your own mind and trade at your own risk deciding if the entry levels I refer to actually meet with your views and thoughts. This makes complete sense as the risk in trading your account is 100% owned by you

<u>THIRD PARTY COMPANIES WITH BANNERS ON MY WEBSITE:</u>

There are a small number of companies with banners on my website. In the interests of full disclosure I have a reciprocal business arrangement with these companies to promote their products. Unlike many of my competitors, I use the products and services provided by these companies. I will NOT allow any third party on my website unless I am 100% happy that they can back up their promise. By virtue of the fact, I work with these companies almost daily. I am more than confident to have them advertise on my website. Any reader who buys products or services from any advertiser via a banner on my website, <a href="http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> will automatically have my help and assistance with any issues that they may have with my partnered advertisers.

<u>TRADING &amp; PERFORMANCES DISCLAIMER:</u>

FLASH, RADAR and FUNDAMENTAL trade set-ups, “Tweets” and “Trade ideas” that are posted in my blogs or on Twitter are trades and set-ups that interest me. They are provided for training and informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as an offer, solicitation or recommendation of any specific security or investment strategy. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading Forex carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade any such leveraged products you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin, and seek advice from an independent financial adviser if you have any doubts.