<strong> </strong>

<strong>1. INTRODUCTION:</strong>

Thankfully, some volatility returned to the Forex market last week. We had to wait for the FED to provide it via the FOMC press conference. I suppose when I look back Janet Yellen did what she had to do. In fact what most, if not all, central bank officials do best, is that look at their world through rose-tinted glasses and give opinions using a glossary of terms and basic dialogue, (which is now getting editors of the Universal Oxford Shorter English Dictionary really excited because of the new words introduced), to steady the markets, and lie through their teeth. I will revisit these thoughts later in the blog under the fundamental traders view (for PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers) or the view from my trading desk (for the free newsletter subscribers).

The SNB, produced a statement that was wetter than touching the wettest fish from the deepest part of the Pacific Ocean….a complete waste of time and to think I set my alarm to wake up for it!

The geopolitical news is still having it’s effect on the markets. However, not as much as I thought they would, Wall Street in particular appears to be immune to almost everything - tensions in Iraq included.

OIL has been steadily drifting up in price this past week or so, on the back of supply issues from the Middle East. It is a stealth tax on consumers and it will have an effect on U.S. data, in particular personal spending and consumer confidence.

The problem is that although people will spend less and the world needs U.S. consumers to spend to drive the world forward, for Wall Street however, good news is good news and bad news is good news. As long as market makers believe that the FED will support the markets come what may, this at times, idiotic mentality that persists in Wall Street will continue. It is like Wall Street is inside it’s own little cuckoon sheltered from all matters outside.
The result is, that I think we will not move away from DEFLATION and RECESSION talk until the markets are left to stand up on their own. I have an article 50% written on this subject in more humorous and enlightening detail and I will use it soon.

Nevertheless, OIL is a future concern for several reasons (supply and retail price) and it will be interesting to see does its relationship with the USD remain somewhat intact.

The PREMIUM SERVICE has been a little quieter than usual on trades, in fact this week we only closed 7 additional trades. However, that is not really that surprising given the current trading conditions. The PREMIUM SERVICE is still adding $$$ each month and that is the right way, particularly as it took a small trading loss last week. Returns are a little behind the curve, but costs are more than covered. This year with so many traders falling away, this can only be viewed as positive and it should only get better as trading conditions to improve.

We are currently live in 9 trades with 9 limit orders in place. The key is to keep TRADING DISCIPLINE in place in all market conditions. It is harder at the moment and my trading expectation levels have been revised accordingly.

So despite the market I am still trying to “weed out” trades.

I have decided after looking around at a great deal of economic data and Central Bank comments to set a new batch of FUNDAMENTAL TRADE set-ups in place that I am hoping to keep in place until the Fall (Autumn), or maybe longer. I am using hedging if required to maintain these positions, which I always find fascinating…what a weird mentality traders have to find hedging interesting!!

One final point on the PREMIUM SERVICE is that the $20.oo Trial Offer will be phased out over the next few days. It was only in place for the Spring and Summer is now upon us. So if you are thinking of trying the PREMIUM SERVICE you have only a few days left at this special option price.

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<strong>2. TRADING SUMMARY:</strong>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>RADAR, FLASH and FUNDAMENTAL TRADES
</strong><strong>JUNE 2014 and YEAR to date:</strong></p>
<p style="text-align: left;">Below I show the up to date performances for my various trading styles. Full excel spreadsheets are in the subscriber area of the PREMIUM SERVICE website.</p>
<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/PREM-SERV-PROFITS1-21062014.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-3915" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/PREM-SERV-PROFITS1-21062014.png" alt="PREM SERV PROFITS1 21062014" width="438" height="409" /></a>

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/PREM-SERVICE-PROFITS-2-21062014.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-3916" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/PREM-SERVICE-PROFITS-2-21062014.png" alt="PREM SERVICE PROFITS 2 21062014" width="453" height="422" /></a>

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The above examples are for illustration purposes only:

The profitability examples detailed above are based solely upon single lot trading, regardless of lot type. If multiple lot sizes are traded the profitability margins will be different than those shown.

Just to provide more information so you understand where I am coming from with the risk / reward statements above. All of my trades are of different sizes and different size lot types. The above does not reflect the actual trading performance, but it does show you the direction of the performance of the trades placed.

I like to add to trades, profits are taken as the trade progresses and my overall cost average moves several times. All of my trades are of different lot styles. I trade a mixture of micro lots, mini lots and standard lots across my brokers.

The above results simply display your profit or loss if you placed a single lot trade on all the set-ups suggested and did nothing else.

<strong> </strong>

<strong> </strong>

<strong>3. THE FUNDAMENTAL TRADERS OVERVIEW:</strong>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>YELLEN IS A DOVE, CARNEY IS A HAWK AND DRAGHI IS A NUMPTY</strong><strong> </strong></p>
So much credence is now placed on Central Bank governors around the world since the financial crisis that they have now taken on celebrity status.

I am just waiting for OK / PEOPLE / HELLO / OLA magazines to show us pages of a day in the life….such as the following: -
<p style="padding-left: 210px;">Janet Yellen: telling her that where she lives there is just noise, noise, noise all about the back yard, but, the house if securely anchored.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 210px;">Mark Carney: fist in the air playing croquet (more likely hockey) on the lawn following his million-dollar move from Canada.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 210px;">Glenn Stevens having a beer throwing a shrimp on the Barbie.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 210px;">Graeme Wheeler: the master of wanting his cake and eating it, actually in a shop ordering a nice cake.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 210px;">Mario Draghi: Obviously my favourite, pictured kicking a can down the road.</p>
I am not sure that the magazines would sell in any economical viable quantities, and it took me some time to come up with clean visions for a couple of the above, but these people do in my opinion attract paparazzi like a celebrity.

My question is; are they actually worthy of all this?

Over the past two weeks since Carney’s moment in his recent Mansion House speech that has given him the same notoriety as Draghi’s “Whatever it takes”, “Do a Carney” has become a living and breathing phrase to use across a matter of things.

All Carney did was basically say that the markets are a little complacent in their views of when UK interest rates may rise and it will be earlier than they think. My God…..a central bank governor that is a HAWK…no longer accommodative in rhetoric. This is great, no more sucking up to the market makers that need to be surrounded in cotton wool and wrapped in bubble-wrap.

The FED, through Bernanke, offered support as fast as the UK when the financial crisis broke in 2008-9. The debate started immediately after Carneys speech will Yellen modify her language in the FOMC press conference in line with the UK? I wrote about this last week re: the dilemma facing the FED. What did Yellen do? Nada, nothing at all, she kept her commentary in line with previous statements and kept tapering at USD$10 million additional reduction.

So, Janet Yellen is a DOVE. Despite continued rhetoric that any bad news is basically a blip and can be explained away with sometimes rather glib vocabulary, she maintains that U.S. economic recovery is still fragile in places but STILL moving forward. At some stage she has to stop saying for “An extended period of time”, or “In line with our expectations”. At some point the noise she is making will have to modify. The FED has to do more than taper, otherwise her continual build up of the U.S. economy will basically represent the FED providing a commentary that equates to a “Fur coat and no knickers” approach.

Do I believe Janet Yellen? I believe her about as much as I believe Mario Draghi, and I do not trust a damn thing he says.

The Central Bank governors are celebs of sorts, the markets which are in constant need of reassurance and easing have elevated the central bank governor positions to be at times more important to a country’s economy than anything the political leaders can muster.

This is certainly true in Washington, the U.S. politicians are a disgrace most of the time, the party divide is more important than moving the U.S. economy forward. I wrote numerous times in the past 2/3 years about how I felt than Ben Bernanke was the most powerful man in the world, way more than Obama, basically because he had the ability to move world markets in an instant.

UK politicians are most of the time divided but united on what is good for the country, when it matters.

In the EUROZONE, the cultural diversity means that basically there is never agreement on anything, I doubt they even agree on the types of cheese to be consumed or the wines selected at the numerous lavish buffet meetings that are held in Brussels (The capital of world hospitality companies and expertise).

Poor Mario Draghi, attracts so much media because it was the ECB that really brought to the forefront the high profile press conference for central bank governors. Draghi though is just a puppet of Berlin….he has a chip planted that controls his actions / statements / and his body language gestures at all times. The Germans are very clever people they have this chip that allows the Bundesbank to speak directly to Draghi, he opens his mouth and the incoming German accent becomes an outgoing Italian accent, very, very clever.

So, Draghi is a puppet, in my terms a numpty, he has no real control at all. The ECB mandate that he constantly refers to, is his way of saying
<p style="text-align: center;"><em>“Look guys…my hands are tied, it’s Berlin that rules the ECB and runs the EUROZONE as a state of Germany, I have very limited powers, if any, however, I can create all these cool acronyms like LTRO, OMT, EPC, SEPA, PE-ACH, MIF, eSEPA, CSM and BIC…and there are loads more.”</em></p>
 What fun Draghi and his board members must have on a daily basis!!

On a serious point, the Financial crisis of 2008-9 is 5-6 years old, it affected the world. It is only now that ECB are considering easing to help grow the EUROZONE and fight DEFLATION, force the banks to lend money, tackle unemployment and try to bring down the strong single currency exchange rate.

Carney may now be viewed as a HAWK, Yellen may still be viewed as a DOVE but in my opinion, maybe not all his fault, but Draghi is definitely a NUMPTY.

These people are well paid to get above the drama of political votes, because popularity is all that drives politicians. They have to rise above political pressure and tell it how it is, and NOT be economical with the truth. Above all I am sick to the back teeth of hearing about free market economies, who has these anymore as far as I can see 6 years after the crisis we are still too afraid to let them stand on their own feet. We will never know if things are good in an economy until we can see and debate economic matters without interference disguised in the names of easing or support.<strong> </strong>

<strong> </strong>

<strong>4. TRADER TOPICS:</strong><strong> </strong>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>ARE YOU FORCING TRADES?</strong></p>
At some point as a trader, you must have felt like the market is simply out to get you. Sometimes every trade you make goes against you and basically every time you place a trade it immediately goes into a loss and then never recovers. You take your pain with your stop and then almost immediately after you are out it moves in your original direction and had you extended your stop the trade would have come into profit. Basically, at times, nothing goes your way.

We have probably all been there in this position, I know that I have, what do I do?
<ol>
	<li>Firstly, I take a step back. I may take a few days break from trading to regain my focus.</li>
	<li>What I do NOT do is revenge trade. (For further information please read some of the articles in the TRADING ESSENTIALS area of the website).</li>
</ol>
If you revenge trade, you will more often than not be forcing trades. Rules, TRADE PLANS, RISK MANAGEMENT which, are all crucial, critical success factors for trading go out of the window.

You have to remain calm, through the frustration. It is as I have already said maybe a good time to take a break away from your computer

It is all about MANAGING YOUR EMOTIONS. This is what separates consistent good profitable traders from the rest.

Here is my approach, and this will come as no surprise.

Examine your TRADING PLAN, entry and exit levels, styles of trades, times of trades, position sizes, stop placements and your overall risk parameters. Ask yourself - Did you adhere to your plan?

Were you chasing the market?

You have to let the market come to you. If you do not - you run the risk of placing your broker account under so much pressure that you run the risk of blowing your account.

Basically, as with all things related to Forex trading, it is boring repetitive actions and controlled emotions that gives you the edge as a trader. Do not veer away from the tried and tested repetition. It works.

You cannot predict which way the market will move.

You can however, by using trading skills around Pivot points, SMA’s, Bollinger bands and Fibonacci levels and using your RISK ASSESSMENT skills increase your probabilities in trading. It is boring, but this is the reality of trading.

If you veer way from the disciples you have set in place via your TRADING PLAN, you are asking for trouble.

<strong> </strong>

<strong>5. MY CURRENT LIVE TRADES:</strong>

<strong>FLASH TRADES:</strong>

FT135
GBP/USD
Long
Entry: 1.7040
Stop Loss: 1.6985
Limit / Target: 1.7250
Weekly Closing Price: 1.7014
Position: -26 pips

FT136
AUD/USD
Short
Entry: 0.9400
Stop Loss: 0.9460
Limit / Target: 0.8000
Weekly Closing Position: 0.9387
Position: +13 pips

FT137
NZD/USD
Short
Entry: 0.8712
Stop Loss: 0.8780
Limit / Target: 0.8000
Weekly Closing Price: 0.8695
Position: +17 pips

FT139
EUR/CAD
Short
Entry: 1.4623
Stop Loss: 1.4667
Limit / Target: 1.4267
Weekly Closing Price: 1.4631
Position: - 8 pips

FT140
CAD/CHF
Long
Entry: 0.8334
Stop Loss: 0.8250
Limit / Target: 0.8580
Weekly Closing Price: 0.8316
Position: -18 pips

<strong> </strong>

<strong>RADAR TRADES:</strong>

RT110
AUD/NZD
Long
Cost Average: 1.0825
Stop Loss: 1.0750
Limit / Target: 1.1350
Weekly Closing Price: 1.0794
Position: -31 pips

<strong> </strong>

<strong>FUNDAMENTAL TRADES:</strong>

FUN14
GBP/NZD (Hedged Trade)
Long
Cost Average: 1.9800
Stop Loss: 1.9000
Limit / Target: 2.2350
Weekly Closing Price: 1.9559
Position: -241 pips
FUN30
GBP/AUD
Long
Cost Average: 1.8115
Stop Loss: 1.7950
Limit / Target: 1.8800 (261.8% extension)
Weekly Closing Price: 1.8108
Position: -7 pips

<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>

<strong>6. TRADES THAT ARE ON MY RADAR:</strong>

The following trade set-ups listed below are placed with my brokers.

RT108
NZD/USD
Short
Entry at 0.8750
Stop at 0.8825
Limit 0.8000

RT109
AUD/USD
Short
Entry at 0.9525
Stop at 0.9600
Limit 0.8500

RT114
EUR/GBP
Short
Entry at 0.8050
Stop at 0.8090
Limit 0.7800

RT115
USD/NOK
Long
Entry at 6.0800
Stop at 6.0200
Limit 6.2000

RT116
USD/SEK
Long
Entry at 6.7000
Stop at 6.6450
Limit 7.5700

FUN29
EUR/AUD
Long
Entry at 1.4550
Stop at 1.3950
Limit at 1.7400

FUN31
EUR/CAD
Long
Entry at 1.4250
Stop at 1.3980
Limit at 1.5500

FUN33
GBP/NZD
Long
Entry at 1.9380
Stop at 1.9000
Limit at 2.0200

FUN34
EUR/NZD
Long
Entry at 1.5720
Stop at 1.5500
Limit at 1.6550

<strong> </strong>

<strong>7. LOOKING FORWARD…THE KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS:</strong>

<strong>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3599.</strong> After all the shenanigans after FOMC, this pair basically finished last week almost at the same level as the week before. We now have a new trading range of 1.3500 to 1.3645

<strong>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.7014</strong>. We are in breakout territory as long as we remain over 1.6985. I think that we have the potential to get as high at 1.7200 – 1.7300. We need to pass 1.7042 first and this level of resistance has held very well so far. Therefore a new range of 1.6985 to 1.7042 is in place now.<strong> </strong>

<strong>AUD/USD: Closing Price 0.9387</strong>. Not much of a change in the week on week closing price. We are however below 0.9390, which was a level of support I have been watching recently. Below 0.9350 and I will be a believer than we are heading lower and could breakdown a bit. For now 0.9350 to 0.9460 is the new range that we are currently trapped within.

<strong>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8695</strong>. 0.8690 was my support level that has been on my radar almost all of the week. Resistance lies at 52-week highs at 0.8780. We may not get that high, so perhaps an interim resistance may offer some stops around 0.8740.<strong> </strong>

<strong>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.0757.</strong> Stellar, CAD economic data on Friday has pushed the CAD and all the crosses lower. 1.0750, just on the 200 Day SMA is holding as support for now, but do not rule out a move to 1.0700 early next week or even lower in sessions to come. I think that is a sentiment change on the CAD. Resistance is now 1.0810, which was previous support.

<strong>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.8946</strong>. The SNB was a wet fish earlier in the week. The press statement was boring, boring, boring. The USD/CHF is in a range of 0.8910 to 0.8985.

<strong>USD/JPY: Closing Price 102.07. </strong>I have no inclination to get involved with any JPY pair never mind the USD/JPY. My gut is telling me because it is not breaking down that it must be getting ready to move higher. I have not even been watching it of late. It looks like very familiar numbers will contain this pair: 101.50 to 102.60.

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<strong>8. MAJOR TRADING PAIRS WITH LONGER-TERM TRENDS MATCHING:</strong>

I have received a few emails from subscribers of the PREMIUM SERVICE asking me to place this in the WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU. (I have tweeted it several times recently)

The following currency pairs have Short Term (DAILY), Medium Term (WEEKLY) and Long Term (MONTHLY) charts all trending in the same direction.

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">LONG:</span>

CAD/JPY
GBP/JPY
USD/NOK
USD/SEK
EUR/NOK
EUR/SEK

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">SHORT:</span>

GBP/USD
AUD/USD
NZD/USD
USD/CAD
EUR/GBP
AUD/CAD
EUR/CAD
GBP/CAD
EUR/CHF
AUD/NZD
<strong> </strong>

<strong>9. MAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:</strong>

SUNDAY: CNY – HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMi.

MONDAY: EUR – French and German Flash Manufacturing PMi.

TUESDAY: N/A.

WEDNESDAY: N/A.

THURSDAY: GBP – The HAWK takes the stage…Carney speaks.
THURSDAY: NZD – Trade Balance.

FRIDAY: N/A.

<strong> </strong>

<strong>10. FINAL THOUGHTS:</strong>

Not much on the news wires coming through next week. So, it looks like the equities markets and political sound-bytes will drive us. Oh, happy days.

We are still working our way through the World Cup calendar programme so trading volumes will be lower, and take in vacations for summer and the markets may drag.

Keep your TRADING DISCIPLINE high…do <strong>NOT</strong> FORCE TRADES as the chances are you run a much higher risk than normal of being caught out on the wrong side.

Keep your position sizes a little smaller and stops a little wider to allow for any lack of liquidity swings and hopefully you will get by.

Take care and good luck.

Scott Pickering
The Pip Accumulator
Sunday June 21st 2014

EMAIL / FOLLOW ME AT:
premiumservice@weeklyfxdrivethru.com
Twitter: @pipaccumulator
Twitter: @ThePremService
Google+/scottpickering

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