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INSERT INTO `vp_backup_wp_posts` VALUES (8063,1,'2016-06-11 11:30:08','2016-06-11 16:30:08','&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong> INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nWhat a boring week in Forex. Well it was for me anyways. I covered several trades that I had held from NFP day and took losses, in particular with the NZD/USD. I decided to take the pain as I was just extending stops (whilst still inside my RISK TOLERANCE levels) but enough was enough and felt it time to do so.\r\n\r\nEven with the loss in pips taken so far this month, I am still on target for my year to date target of 10,000 pips. The cushion I had going into this month is now gone. What is more frustrating on top of taking losses is that I have zero confidence in aggressively adding trades given that markets, except for the GBP related trades are really range bound. When the EUR/USD trades almost daily in 40 pip ranges the market stagnates and trading with confidence is not there.\r\n\r\nI tweeted to subscribers on several occasions about my frustration, as when I take losses so do they, and, it is hard at times for subscribers to get the fact that I only trade when I am 100% engaged with the market. This market I am struggling to get a feel for.\r\n\r\nAll I see is that Oil is the “b-all and end-all” when it comes to market direction. Correlations have been off; as you will know, I am a big believer in inter-market correlations.\r\n\r\nBasically to sum up the first two weeks in June from my perspective; they have in a nutshell been boring, annoying and frustrating. I do hope some of you have fared a little better.\r\n\r\nLeading on from the pleasantries…\r\n\r\nFREE PREMIUM SERVICE subscriptions, just to remind you; you could be the next winner of a free PREMIUM SERVICE subscription; if you subscribe to receive this free blog via my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nYou are automatically entered into a free monthly draw, once you’ve subscribed. Each month during 2016 one lucky blog subscriber will receive a free subscription to the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\nThe next draw will be early September when I return from my summer break.\r\n\r\nMy plans for the short tour of the UK and IRELAND (see chart below with itinerary) are complete.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/TOUR-DATES-2016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7597\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/TOUR-DATES-2016.png\" alt=\"TOUR DATES 2016\" width=\"630\" height=\"397\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nI hope to meet and greet many traders on this trip and I am really excited about the presentations that are scheduled. Please come along if you can and bring friends who you think may be interested in starting to trade the Forex market.\r\n\r\nSpaces are limited so to register for an event, please go to my landing page on <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> and click on LIVE EVENTS. The drop down menu there has all the information that you will require, plus the email address to use to register at to reserve a space. I would place it here but I would end up getting thousand’s of SPAM emails, which I want to avoid.\r\n\r\nPlease note that because of the above touring schedule there will no “FREE NEWSLETTER or FOREXTELL” versions of the WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU, on the dates listed below.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">18<sup>th</sup> June 2016\r\n25<sup>th</sup> June 2016\r\n2<sup>nd</sup> July 2016</p>\r\nOriginally, I had planned to produce something but the schedule is so intense the chance of having the time available is so slight there is really no point promising and not delivering.\r\n\r\nI will hopefully produce a brief overview of the markets and my thoughts for PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers but even this will be basic and very limited.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber, fee based trade set-up option for Forex traders regardless of experience or background. I provide traders suggested trades, and some market commentary related to open trades or factors within the overall market that have my interest.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and the various trade styles plus how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nAdditional information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE you will require a credit card.\r\n\r\n<u>PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION COSTS:</u>\r\n\r\nDetails of features and benefits of a PREMIUM SERVICE subscription can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the dropdown tab at the top of the page entitled HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE OF THE PREMIUM SERVICE. To subscribe follow the SUBSCRIBE HERE tab.\r\n\r\nPREMIUM SERVICE subscription costs are as follows: -\r\n\r\nCAD$240.00 - 4 weeks (1 month)\r\nCAD$500.00 - 10 weeks (3 months)\r\nCAD$750.00 - 20 weeks (6 months)\r\nCAD$1,250.00 - 40 weeks (12 months)\r\n<u>PLUS</u>: Existing PLATINUM MEMBERS (annual subscribers) can re-subscribe for a further 12 months for CAD$1,000.00\r\n\r\nI work for about 50 weeks a year. Subscriptions are based on 40 published blogs of the WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU per year. For the remaining 10 weeks, I am around tweeting, posting and managing existing LIVE trades, although my market activity is reduced.\r\n\r\n<u>PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE THIS MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\nNET PIPS TO THE MONTH SO FAR:       - 751 pips\r\nNET PIPS THIS YEAR SO FAR:                +5,116 pips\r\n\r\nNET PIPS 2015:       +10,686\r\nNET PIPS 2014:       +11,209\r\n(I trade basically for 10 months a year. I do not trade from mid July through early September or mid December through early January).\r\n\r\nIf you want more data or detail about the performance and the tabs on my website landing page do not answer your questions, contact me directly and I will supply the trading data you require. There are NO secrets. There are many, many spreadsheets detailing performance trade by trade and by trade and by trading style, way too many to place in this blog. If you are interested in the PREMIUM SERVICE and want more information, all you have to do is ask.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>LAST WEEK’S NEWS – MY THOUGHTS:</strong>\r\n\r\nLast week was a slow week in trading for me, but there were significant events that took place in my opinion.\r\n\r\nIs it just me that sees / views the markets as complacent at the moment?\r\n\r\nDo the market participants dotted around the globe view everything on the basis that central banks will step in to support the private banks and markets once again and backstop potential losses and confidence should we have another crisis?\r\n\r\nWhat the hell is going on? I find the whole approach anti to market fundamentals and at times technicals mean nothing. It’s all about OIL and news driven events that trump (no pun at the DONALD intended), economic data such as BREXIT. Frankly it is disturbing.\r\n\r\nBack on track…\r\n\r\nJanet Yellen (FED) spoke last week re-affirmed her desire to tighten and raise interest rates. The markets listened and kind of did nothing.\r\n\r\nGlenn Stevens (RBA) kept rates unchanged. The RBA is still concerned over commodity pricing and housing, but sees no reason to play with interest rates yet *(later)\r\n\r\nGraeme Wheeler (RBNZ) also kept rates unchanged. He also cited the housing bubble in Auckland and demonstrated the best he could that he is on a very thin dividing line. He spoke twice after the statement was released. I read the statement and frankly I thought all that the RBNZ had done was tippex out the date on the last one, re-date it and issue it again. It was that similar. He basically stated that he was waiting on the FED *(later).\r\nIn his second speech he was so HAWKISH and BEARISH towards the NZD I was amazed that the currency remained so well bid in the hours that followed.\r\n\r\nMario Draghi (ECB) delivered a damming view of the economic position inside the EUROZONE. Basically he re-iterated once again that he has gone pretty much as far as he can with fiscal changes and initiatives with the ECB. It is now up to member states to get their fingers extracted from where the sun does NOT shine and implement structural reforms to boost growth and get inflation back in play. I guarantee you; this fell on deaf ears. No one gives a rat’s ass in the EUROZONE to doing the right thing *(later).\r\n\r\nTwo years ago, had Draghi delivered this speech the EUR/USD would have collapsed by 200-300 pips in the day. We saw about 70 pips and then it pulled back.\r\n\r\nStephen Poloz (BOC) spoke in Ottawa and basically stated there are some concerns ahead for the Canadian economy. He singled out housing. He claimed that the upside housing prices pressure would start to diminish…. my arse it will. Poloz has his head so buried in the sand he has no idea what he is saying as he cannot hear anything. At one point, he was congratulating the U.S. on an economic great job done. In Ireland, this would be considered as tongue in check plaumausing and hilarious to listen to *(later).\r\n\r\nHere is later…\r\n\r\n* - All of these central bankers are basically saying the same stuff. They are waiting on the Fed to act and raise rates to strengthen the USD and weaken their currencies. The strength of the FED will dwarf anything they attempt and they are prepared to risk a waiting game.\r\n\r\nLook… this is all a game, nothing more and nothing less.\r\n\r\nWithout exception these central bankers cannot see that a lower interest rate policy encourages investors into the housing market as an alternative to buying equities. Now they have bubbles and they behave as 2016 versions of Pontius Pilate, virtually washing their hands of any implications they may have had in the current predicament.\r\n\r\nAs I have said before it all down to “Dithering” Janet Yellen and when she will act. I do not want to be DOOM and GLOOM all the time but I really fear that complacency has set in and my NIGHTMARE SCENARIO posted in the last two blogs is in place. Nothing that has happened in the last three weeks has caused me to change my views.\r\n\r\nDid I miss an end of the world announcement or something?\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>WHAT’S BIG ON MY MIND:</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>BREXIT IS A REAL POSSIBILITY - SO IS A EUROZONE CONTAGION FEAR REAL?</strong></p>\r\nI have this great app on my iPAD that I can mirror play through my smart TV that gives me hundreds of TV channels from around the world. This includes all the BBC, ITV, Channel 4 and Channel 5 TV schedules in the UK, as well as some political UK and EUROZONE based specialty channels, and it is just brilliant.\r\n\r\nIt has allowed me to watch the TV debates on BREXIT to supplement my reading on the subject, plus I get some snippets from subscribers in the UK as to what is happening on the ground in the local pups etc.\r\n\r\nGet ready…\r\n\r\nAs “wooden” Wolf Blitzer would say on CNN Americas Choice 2016 (The US Presidential Election / Circus coverage), “we have an important announcement”.\r\n\r\nIn an about turn from my initial perspective, I actually think that the UK could be on its way out of the EUROPEAN UNION.\r\n\r\nThe arguments to LEAVE in the TV debates are compelling, whilst the arguments to STAY are based on FEAR.\r\n\r\nI live in Canada now and watch a great deal of US based TV. For decades, prior to moving, I have commented on the fact that the US population has been managed by fear. Living so close now with even more exposure, I have seen nothing to change those views. FEAR works in the U.S.; look at the DONALD.\r\nThe “Brits” are not American. The debates on TV are NOT a slagging match of personal insults; they debate real facts and figures.\r\n\r\nThe big question for the STAY/REMAIN vote with two weeks left, is that they are hoping that huge undecided voters (the silent majority) will be more conservative in view and will likely vote to REMAIN. No change, the devil you know better than the devil you don\'t. But will these people get out and vote? What will the turnout be?\r\n\r\nSovereignty is a huge issue for the UK population. There is absolutely no doubt that unelected bureaucrats in Brussels have eroded this in the name of the EUROPEAN UNION. There was suspicion when the UK entered the EU that this would happen. That was why there was never any discussion on abandoning the GBP in favour of the EUR. Those fears from years ago now have substance, and many believe have been realized. The LEAVES love this point where as the REMAINS gloss over it.\r\n\r\nTrade will always happen and frankly whilst there are some benefits to trading inside the EU, the amount of paperwork required to trade from the outside will not be any greater than the waste of paper that exists right now.\r\n\r\nFor those of you living outside of Europe you will find the way that Brussels manages all things EU is weird and extreme. It is managed, well in fact I do not think it is managed, there are no mandates in place, it has a centralized function on policy but it’s not clear. Policy from the EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT is non-existent. The EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT has no power. The LEAVE side of the debate can just point to high bureaucrat salaries, pensions and benefits, which are unmanaged by elected officials. Basically it is a massive un-checked cost and just wastes money.\r\n\r\nIt reminds me in many ways of the language police here in Quebec. The policy and procedures are anti- business and just a high cost and a waste.\r\n\r\nIn Europe hundreds of thousands of €’s were actually spent on the definition and content of a British sausage to see if could be called a sausage!\r\n\r\nYup, we all pay taxes for this critical information.\r\n\r\nThe LEAVES have an easy sell, as promises of effectiveness of the EU have just NOT materialized and it seen for what it is.\r\n\r\nIt is a shambolic collection of non-coordinated departments with no effective cost controls. Zero unity or, harmony on most fronts politically and economically, so basically a cost that the UK would be better off without.\r\n\r\nTo counter-balance all the EU bashing the REMAINS say that the UK will fall behind the world with trade if outside the EU and that tax, unemployment and retail prices will rise. The LEAVES cite Switzerland and Norway who are both geographically close the EURO AREA as having great trading arrangements. Plus, JAPAN, TAIWAN, NEW ZEALAND, AUSTRALIA and the US all trade with the EUROZONE so why would the UK be any different from those? It is a strong argument and FEAR as a counter just does not cut the mustard.\r\n\r\nI know that I am keeping this high level without too much flesh on the bones but these are pub discussions. This is where the vote is mainly contested.\r\n\r\nI think that there is a real possibility of a BREXIT unless the great undecided are all REMAINS… the silent majority.\r\n\r\nBack to my NIGHTMARE SCENARIO…\r\n\r\nThe BREXIT happens. The GBP is under immediate pressure, but so, in my opinion is the EUR. There is much more at stake for the EUROZONE, right now I cannot believe the apparent complacency.\r\n\r\nThe EUROZONE is a shambles, reverting back to my earlier point on sovereignty and the single currency, it is important to note that, most voters in the vast majority of EU countries who were members of the EUROZONE at the outset never had a vote on whether they wanted the EUR to replace their sovereign currency. It was an opted in vote on the back of another treaty vote. Vote YES for the treaty and the EUR comes as well. That is what you call democracy EUROZONE style.\r\n\r\nIf the UK leaves the EU, other countries even those tied to the single currency will be having elections that are really EUROZONE membership referendum votes. I have NO DOUBT that there will be a CONTAGION. I have been writing about this for years in my blogs.\r\n\r\nPoliticians are far removed from voters, the ECB does not have to interact and the vast majority of the population of the EUROZONE has endured the pain of a failed AUSTERITY plan now replaced by QE (Quantitative Easing), and even this is NOT enough. Mario Draghi is asking for country by country structural reforms. This will take years and years to wash through even if there is commitment today to start to do something.\r\n\r\nListen…\r\n\r\nIt will be talked about and debated over a glass of wine but bugger all will be done.\r\n\r\nThe CONTAGION door has been opened by the political failures of those in place in the EUROZONE. It is the best own goal (great timing given EURO 2016) ever to be seen and when the history books are written it will be documented as such.\r\n\r\nITALY, GREECE, SPAIN, PORTUGAL are my naps for CONTAGION.\r\n\r\nIt is said that if the BREXIT occurs on June 23<sup>rd</sup> it will take about 2 years to unchain the UK from the EU. Within those two years the EUROZONE will be at break up point in my opinion.\r\n\r\nIt will take a lot of hard work, commitment, determination and coordination to prevent this. None of these words can be associated with the EUROZONE.\r\n\r\nI still see my NIGHTMARE SCENARIO in place.\r\n\r\nIf the DONALD is elected, we could all be singing the famous R E M song… “The end of the world as we know it”.\r\n\r\n<em> </em>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBER EXCLUSIVE AREA:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> COMING UP THIS WEEK:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>THIS WEEK’S FOREX NEWS THAT INTERESTS ME:</u>\r\n\r\n(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market other than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to <a href=\"http://www.forexfactory.com\">www.forexfactory.com</a> and <a href=\"http://www.tradingeconomics.com\">www.tradingeconomics.com</a> for a more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).\r\n\r\nSUNDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: USD – Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: NZD – GDT Dairy Auction prices.\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – FOMC statement, Projections &amp; FED Press Conference.\r\nWEDNESDAY: NZD – GDP.\r\nWEDNESDAY: AUD – Employment Data.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: CHF – Libor Rate and SNB Press Conference.\r\nTHURSDAY: GBP – BOE Interest Rate and MPC voting.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: N/A.\r\n<u>THE USD MAJORS – MY THOUGHTS (A REVIEW): </u>\r\n\r\n(In this section I have as usual kept my charts as minimalist as possible. With regards to charting in my opinion less is more!! I hope that they are clear. All readers regardless of level of experience should be able to follow my thoughts from my comments to the levels on the charts with ease)\r\n\r\nMy comments are contained on the charts.\r\n\r\nEUR/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.1258\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/EURUSD-D-11062016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-8046\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/EURUSD-D-11062016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"EURUSD D 11062016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nGBP/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.4258\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/GBPUSD-D-11062016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-8047\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/GBPUSD-D-11062016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"GBPUSD D 11062016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nAUD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.7378\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/AUDUSD-D-11062016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-8045\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/AUDUSD-D-11062016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"AUDUSD D 11062016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nNZD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.7060\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/NZDUSD-D-11062016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-8048\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/NZDUSD-D-11062016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"NZDUSD D 11062016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.2753\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/USDCAD-D-11062016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-8049\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/USDCAD-D-11062016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"USDCAD D 11062016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF - Weekly Closing Price: 0.9641\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/USDCHF-D-11062016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-8050\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/USDCHF-D-11062016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"USDCHF D 11062016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY - Weekly Closing Price: 106.74\r\n\r\n<u><a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/USDJPY-D-11062016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-8051\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/USDJPY-D-11062016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"USDJPY D 11062016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a></u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>MY CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nIt\'s all about central banks again this week. But on this occasion only the FED. Janet Yellen has a Press Conference this coming Wednesday, the focus will be on will she be looking to July to raise rates (assuming there is no hike this week).\r\n\r\nEvery dot on the “I” and cross on the “t” will be checked and cross-referenced for clues. Oh, what fun for all on Wednesday. How will the USD react? Personally, I see USD strength if July is still on. Then we have the July NFP release being the next major news event on the U.S. horizon. All other U.S. news may as well be cancelled.\r\n\r\nNot that I want to any way be cynical, God forbid. Am II correct in saying though, that the markets reaction and future of the FED monetary policy for the immediate future is going to be based on the U.S. Department of Labour statistics numbers which are never accurate?\r\n\r\nWill they be massaged to meet the FED’s requirements? Holy Mother of God, there I go again.\r\n\r\nWill they be massaged for big business and Wall Street to keep the status quo of free money in place? Wash my mouth out with soap; as if that could possibly happen in the US and A.\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nTake care\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nDATE: 11<sup>th</sup> June 2016\r\nBLOG VERSION: FREE NEWSLETTER VERSION #205','BREXIT IS A REAL POSSIBILITY -  SO IS A EUROZONE CONTAGION FEAR REAL?','','publish','open','closed','','brexit-real-possibility-eurozone-contagion-fear-real','','','2016-06-11 11:30:08','2016-06-11 16:30:08','',0,'http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?p=8063',0,'post','',0),(7984,1,'2016-05-28 12:26:59','2016-05-28 17:26:59','<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>THE NIGHTMARE SCENARIO…PART TWO</strong>\r\n(With all the geopolitical events on the horizon, I want to revisit the basic TRADING RISK to your broker account)</p>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong> INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThe “chop fest” continued last week, but in addition the trading ranges just seem to get more and more compressed. The EUR/USD, which in my opinion needs to keep moving up and down to keep the markets moving, was caught in a 30 pip trading range for many days.\r\n\r\nWhat does this tell me?\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>Right or wrong; if the most liquid pair in the FX market is not moving, liquidity is probably poor. I know there can be other technical reasons but this situation where the EUR/USD had only 30 pip movements for two/three days, is as scarce as crap out of a rocking horse! I am 100% on the liquidity reason and I can find no other explanation.</li>\r\n 	<li>If liquidity is poor do not get too caught up in trading. DO NOT over trade and if you have to enter a trade or you are suckered in make sure that your position sizes are small.</li>\r\n 	<li>The reality is; these are times to get a grip and exercise TRADING DISCIPLINE.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nFrom a trading perspective, the PREMIUM SERVICE trading results continued upwards. Barring a catastrophe over the long weekend, the PREMIUM SERVICE trading accounts are ahead of the 2016 target which is fantastic considering the negative position at the end of February this year.\r\n\r\nNo trader can be complacent in these times, hence the title of this weeks blog. I feel so strongly about this subject, that it would normally only appear in the “subscribers only” section. However, because we are entering the summer and the silly season with several geopolitical events, it is in my opinion, a great time to refresh the basics for everyone. As always, I keep it simple and without complication so that regardless of trading experience it is easy to follow…. hopefully!\r\n\r\nShifting gears…\r\n\r\nFREE PREMIUM SERVICE subscriptions, just to remind you; you could be the next winner of a free PREMIUM SERVICE subscription; if you subscribe to receive this free blog via my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nYou are automatically entered into a free monthly draw, once you’ve subscribed. Each month during 2016 one lucky blog subscriber will receive a free subscription to the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\nAs I am the UK and IRELAND in June and early July the next winner will enjoy a subscription until my summer break in mid July. The next draw after the one in a couple of weeks will then be early September after my summer break from blogging.\r\n\r\nMy plans for the short tour of the UK and IRELAND (see chart below with itinerary) are intensifying a lot more now. My power point software skills are being pushed to the limits, never mind the continual refining of the presentation content.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/TOUR-DATES-2016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7522\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/TOUR-DATES-2016.png\" alt=\"TOUR DATES 2016\" width=\"624\" height=\"397\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nI hope to meet and greet many traders on this trip and I am really excited about the presentations that are scheduled. Please come along if you can and bring friends who you think may be interested in starting to trade the Forex market.\r\n\r\nSpaces are limited so to register for an event, please go to my landing page on <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> and click on LIVE EVENTS. The drop down menu there has all the information that you will require, plus the email address to use to register at to reserve a space. I would place it here but I would end up getting thousand’s of SPAM emails, which I want to avoid.\r\n\r\nPlease note that because of the TOUR, copies of this blog will have a revised format on the following dates: -\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">18<sup>th</sup> June 2016\r\n25<sup>th</sup> June 2016\r\n2<sup>nd</sup> July 2016</p>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber, fee based trade set-up option for Forex traders regardless of experience or background. I provide traders suggested trades, and some market commentary related to open trades or factors within the overall market that have my interest.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and the various trade styles plus how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nAdditional information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE you will require a credit card.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><u>PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION COSTS:</u></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Details of features and benefits of a PREMIUM SERVICE subscription can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the dropdown tab at the top of the page entitled HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE OF THE PREMIUM SERVICE. To subscribe follow the SUBSCRIBE HERE tab.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">PREMIUM SERVICE subscription costs are as follows: -</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">CAD$240.00 - 4 weeks (1 month)\r\nCAD$500.00 - 10 weeks (3 months)\r\nCAD$750.00 - 20 weeks (6 months)\r\nCAD$1,250.00 - 40 weeks (12 months)\r\n<u>PLUS</u>: Existing PLATINUM MEMBERS (annual subscribers) can re-subscribe for a further 12 months for CAD$1,000.00\r\n\r\nI work for about 50 weeks a year. Subscriptions are based on 40 published blogs of the WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU per year. For the remaining 10 weeks, I am around tweeting, posting and managing existing LIVE trades, although my market activity is reduced.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><u> </u></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><u>PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE THIS MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:</u></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">\r\nNET PIPS THIS MONTH SO FAR:            +2,025\r\nNET PIPS THIS YEAR SO FAR:                +5,839</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">NET PIPS 2015:       +10,686\r\nNET PIPS 2014:       +11,209\r\n(I trade basically for 10 months a year. I do not trade from mid July through early September or mid December through early January).</p>\r\nIf you want more data or detail about the performance and the tabs on my website landing page do not answer your questions, contact me directly and I will supply the trading data you require. There are NO secrets. There are many, many spreadsheets detailing performance trade by trade and by trade and by trading style, way too many to place in this blog. If you are interested in the PREMIUM SERVICE and want more information, all you have to do is ask.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>LAST WEEK’S NEWS – MY THOUGHTS:</strong>\r\n\r\nFrom my perspective, last week was a little boring and somewhat light on news events to move the market. Maybe that is one reason why the most liquid pair in the FX market, the EUR/USD, spent a lot of time in a 30-40 pip trading range. Only on Friday last week after Janet Yellen spoke in Harvard did we see a knicker-gripping 90 pip trading range. When I noticed this move I had to hold my head back to stop the blood from my nose and grab a few tissues. Even at my age a sudden shock causes a nosebleed.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nThe big news of the week was the BOC interest rate announcement. I was secretly hoping for a rate cut, well hardly secretly; I think I put that thought out on twitter. Not that that matters too much, my disillusionment with twitter continues. All the arse licking at the end of each week with thanks to all my #FF’s stuff is making me vomit. Is the world just full of insecure people who cannot get by without constant reassurance? To me it is bloody ridiculous; my wife sells Personal Development programs and business opportunities for individuals and corporate bodies. If she ever tells me that she thinks that her marketplace is shrinking, all I have to do is show her a couple hours of tweets of twitter. Talk about an unlimited marketplace full of opportunities.\r\n\r\nGetting back on track…\r\n\r\nThe BOC held rates unchanged. I have to live with this decision. However, Canada is a small country population wise, huge geographically and it has problems looming in the not too distant future. I think that its unfair that the USD/CAD and cross rates are treated as proxy’s for oil, but it is what it is. The wild fires in Fort McMurray will create problems for the broader Canadian economy. We are talking pure devastation and the fact that the BOC once again under Stephen Poloz believes all is OK, baffles me.\r\n\r\nSomeone has to pay to make good. That will be the taxpayer and that will bring to halt any bullishness that Poloz and his chaps see in the economy.\r\n\r\nThe wildfires could place the Canadian economy back in a technical recession very quickly. Plus, when you add to this, the fact that Oil cannot maintain prices above $50, it\'s a double whammy. It\'s a triple whammy when those who have been laid off in the oil sands areas of late are no longer available to re-hire. They tend to be country transient workers; at least I am led to believe the vast majority are.\r\n\r\nThere will be interest rate cuts to ZIRP.\r\n\r\nBefore the Fort McMurray wildfires, the BOC were concerned with some poor economic data that was making them look at the possibility of QE (Quantitative Easing) and negative interest rates. By fluke, the data leveled out and stimulus was placed on the back burner… watch this space moving forward.\r\n\r\nI am critical of central banks that play behind the curve, or, simply have no fecking idea what a curve is or what they should be looking for.\r\n\r\nThe BOC has at times maintained a “Head in the Sand” approach, even when the Canadian economy was in technical recession last year, the BOC were still talking about the garden being rosy. They hoped that Government policy from the new Justin Trudeau Prime Minister’s budget would “kick start” any lagers. In my opinion, Central Bank monetary policy should NOT be left to hope!!\r\n\r\nTime will tell.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>WHAT’S BIG ON MY MIND:</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>THE NIGHTMARE SCENARIO…PART TWO</strong>\r\n(With all the geopolitical events on the horizon, I want to revisit the basic TRADING RISK to your broker account)</p>\r\n<em>“I trade, I blog and do my very best to provide my subscribers with trade set-ups to make them and myself a nice little income. I am now using the phrase “STEADY EDDIE” a lot as I believe it’s all about consistency and letting the trades come to you. There is little point trading for trade’s sake. It’s not my style and I believe that one should stick to one’s strengths rather than have weaknesses exposed”.</em>\r\n\r\nThe above was my opening paragraph for this section last week.\r\n\r\nI want to follow on from the points I raised last week but attack it from a trading perspective. To my subscribers and in this blog for the past three years I have been banging the same drum over and over again with regards to: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>RISK MANAGEMENT</li>\r\n 	<li>MONEY MANAGEMENT</li>\r\n 	<li>TRADING DISCIPLINES</li>\r\n 	<li>TRADE PLANS</li>\r\n 	<li>POSITION SIZING</li>\r\n 	<li>TRADING PSYCHOLOGY</li>\r\n 	<li>KEYS TO TRADING LONGEVITY</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nI feel even more strongly about these matters as we enter the summer doldrums of June, July and August. From now on it will be known as the “Silly Season”.\r\n\r\nWe have the following to consider from now through the “Silly Season” and beyond. It is not just a single issue, we have a potential domino effect: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>DONALD TRUMP – THE U.S. PRESIDENTIAL CIRCUS</li>\r\n 	<li>HOUSING BUBBLES</li>\r\n 	<li>BREXIT and UK FRAGILITY</li>\r\n 	<li>EUROZONE IMPLOSION / CONTAGION EFFECT</li>\r\n 	<li>JAPAN ECONOMIC / POLITICAL FAILURE</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nBack to my main point…\r\n\r\nWhen you become a Forex Trader, you move to the dark side. There are some extreme weirdo’s that trade Forex and there are some really nice people. The one thing in common, is that most of us do not get enough sleep and we trade in extremes at times. Some, if not all of this, is self-inflicted.\r\n\r\nLike the markets we too are at times driven by FEAR and GREED. This manifests itself by us NOT sticking to our TRADE PLANS and exposing ourselves to too much RISK.\r\n\r\nGiven the events on the horizon, I believe that now is the time to revisit RISK from the perspective of POSITION SIZING.\r\n\r\nHow much should you risk per trade?\r\n\r\nThere are many schools of thought and reference points on how to answer this question. My peer group has different opinions. It is a personal decision how much RISK; as in how much of a loss you will tolerate. This you have to manage yourself.\r\n\r\nI can tell you that after 9 years of trading my views have altered slightly. I used to say 2% per trade. Then I moved to 3.5% per trade. Now I have settled at 3%, and on occasions I have stretched to 3.5% on the more liquid USD majors as a maximum. But in 95% of occasions my position sizes reflect that my eventual RISK TOLERANCE level in any one trade is 3%. I play with position sizes and STOP LOSS positions to manage this.\r\n\r\nI would say that if you are new to Forex Trading regardless of your financial circumstances, I would RISK less than 2% until you grasp the market moves better.\r\n\r\nLosses are capital losses. CAPITAL PRESERVATION is critical to LONGEVITY in Forex Trading. You must think longer-term. Trading Forex, despite the spam email you receive in your inboxes is NOT a get rich quick opportunity. These emails about automatic robot systems are bullsh*t. If these robots were that good do you not think that the banks would be out there buying them all up and sacking thousand’s of staff?\r\n\r\nIn the chart below, I have highlighted the difference between risking 3% of your capital in a trade than 10%.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/3v10-POSITION-SIZING-28052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7963\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/3v10-POSITION-SIZING-28052016.png\" alt=\"3%v10% POSITION SIZING 28052016\" width=\"377\" height=\"423\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nFirstly, I hope that you can see that there is a huge difference between risking 3% of your account than 10% of your account per trade.\r\n\r\nOne reason why so many traders fail with Forex, is that they either do NOT understand how to manage RISK, which, makes them pretty much gamblers.\r\n\r\nI stopped low price entry-level subscriptions to the PREMIUM SERVICE because I was getting mostly time consuming gamblers who only wanted 15 trades a day, regardless of quality. That is NOT me and it is NOT my style.\r\n\r\nBack to the chart above…\r\n\r\nIf you started with an account of $25,000.00 and you had a losing streak of 14 trades in a row, your account would now only have $5,719.20 left, if you risked 10% per trade.\r\n\r\nYou would have lost 77% of your account.\r\n\r\nRisking 3% of your account, you still would have lost $8,679.09 yielding a loss of 34% in comparison to losing 77% of your account balance by risking 10%\r\n\r\nThese examples are extremes; one would not expect to go on a losing streak of 14 trades in a row, but I hope the point is made even if you looked at the chart from say a 4 trade-losing streak.\r\n\r\nThe purpose of the chart I hope shows that unless traders trade with POSITION SIZING and RISK MANAGEMENT controls in place, the hope of PRESERVING CAPITAL which gives you LONGEVITY on trading is out of the window. That is of course unless you have one of those unique money trees in your garden or unlimited funds that enable you to keep re-financing your broker account. If you have either of these may I suggest Vegas baby…that\'s the place to go!!\r\n\r\nNot sure about you, but the thoughts of losing almost 80% of my accounts, does not sit well with me at all.\r\n\r\nAs we enter the “Silly Season” it is paramount that regardless of trading experience we always observe our core principles and disciplines. It is much harder to replace losses when they have gone, it really does require discipline, I know, I have been there.\r\n\r\nWe should also bear in mind as we go into “Silly Season” that liquidity will be less and therefore we can have dramatic moves at times. If you trade throughout the year you will need your wits about you all the time.\r\n\r\nAbout a month ago I produced an excel spreadsheet for my subscribers, based upon my POSITION SIZES for the “Silly Season”. I grouped trading pairs together and charted what my position sizes would be from an entry level through to 100%. This chart was based in most cases on halving my usual position sizes. This is how seriously I will be treating what is basically the remainder of 2016.\r\n\r\n(FOR PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS – the section will be copied and added as a PDF to the EDUCATION section of the PREMIUM SERVICE website)\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBER EXCLUSIVE AREA:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> COMING UP THIS WEEK:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>THIS WEEK’S FOREX NEWS THAT INTERESTS ME:</u>\r\n\r\n(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market other than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to <a href=\"http://www.forexfactory.com\">www.forexfactory.com</a> and <a href=\"http://www.tradingeconomics.com\">www.tradingeconomics.com</a> for a more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).\r\n\r\nSUNDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: CAD – GDP.\r\nTUESDAY: USD – Consumer Confidence.\r\nTUESDAY: CNY – PMi.\r\nTUESDAY: AUD – GDP.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: NZD – Annual Budget Release.\r\nWEDNESDAY: AUD – Retail Sales and Trade Balance.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: EUR – ECB Interest Rate and Press Conference.\r\nTHURSDAY: USD – ADP Non-Farm Payrolls.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: USD – Non-Farm Payrolls / Average Hourly Earnings.\r\nFRIDAY: CAD – Trade Balance.\r\n<u>THE USD MAJORS – MY THOUGHTS (A REVIEW): </u>\r\n\r\n(In this section I have as usual kept my charts as minimalist as possible. With regards to charting in my opinion less is more!! I hope that they are clear. All readers regardless of level of experience should be able to follow my thoughts from my comments to the levels on the charts with ease)\r\n\r\nMy comments are contained on the charts.\r\n\r\nEUR/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.1110\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/EURUSD-DAILY-28052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7972\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/EURUSD-DAILY-28052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"EURUSD DAILY 28052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nGBP/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.4617\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/GBPUSD-DAILY-28052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7973\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/GBPUSD-DAILY-28052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"GBPUSD DAILY 28052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nAUD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.7182\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/AUDUSD-D-28052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7971\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/AUDUSD-D-28052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"AUDUSD D 28052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nNZD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.6690\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/NZDUSD-DAILY-28052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7974\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/NZDUSD-DAILY-28052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"NZDUSD DAILY 28052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.3028\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDCAD-DAILY-28052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7975\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDCAD-DAILY-28052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"USDCAD DAILY 28052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF - Weekly Closing Price: 0.946\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDCHF-DAILY-208502016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7976\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDCHF-DAILY-208502016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"USDCHF DAILY 208502016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY - Weekly Closing Price: 110.22\r\n\r\n<u><a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDJPY-DAILY-28052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7977\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDJPY-DAILY-28052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"USDJPY DAILY 28052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a></u>\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u>MY CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nAnother Non-Farm Payroll week has come around. This time Mario Draghi is also front and centre with an ECB Press Conference.\r\n\r\nBoth items are big news events as the FED is ready to raise rates and those people saying that June is off the table are not applying the FED thinking. I believe they want a couple of additional rate hikes in the bag before the U.S. Presidential Election just in case the “DONALD” is elected. I think the FOMC will be saying forget about the BREXIT to a large extent as we have a bigger worry to consider in our own country.\r\n\r\nFED speak has been broadly hawkish including Janet Yellen herself last Friday when speaking in Harvard. Take nothing for granted with the FED. They are still on a divergent monetary policy.\r\n\r\nDraghi will be pressed on the leaked EUROZONE PLAN B for the UK BREXIT referendum. Lets be honest it must at least be PLAN P by now as the EUROZONE find it hard to agree on anything. Frankly, how PLAN P looks will be anyone’s guess. As I understand it, it’s centered on the CONTAGION EFFECT that a BREXIT could start in the EUROZONE.\r\n\r\nI am sure that Mario Draghi will not be the architect of such a PLAN P, but he must have been privy to its content, one would have thought.\r\n\r\nLets see if he confirms or denies such a document exists. If it does exist, it must be easy to identify, as it will be a document super glued to coke cans ready to be kicked down the open road outside of Brussels.\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nTake care,\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nDATE: 28th May 2016\r\nBLOG VERSION: #203 FREE NEWSLETTER','THE NIGHTMARE SCENARIO…PART TWO','','publish','open','closed','','nightmare-scenariopart-two','','','2016-05-28 12:26:59','2016-05-28 17:26:59','',0,'http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?p=7984',0,'post','',0),(7985,1,'2016-05-28 12:26:59','2016-05-28 17:26:59','<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>THE NIGHTMARE SCENARIO…PART TWO</strong>\r\n(With all the geopolitical events on the horizon, I want to revisit the basic TRADING RISK to your broker account)</p>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong> INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThe “chop fest” continued last week, but in addition the trading ranges just seem to get more and more compressed. The EUR/USD, which in my opinion needs to keep moving up and down to keep the markets moving, was caught in a 30 pip trading range for many days.\r\n\r\nWhat does this tell me?\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>Right or wrong; if the most liquid pair in the FX market is not moving, liquidity is probably poor. I know there can be other technical reasons but this situation where the EUR/USD had only 30 pip movements for two/three days, is as scarce as crap out of a rocking horse! I am 100% on the liquidity reason and I can find no other explanation.</li>\r\n 	<li>If liquidity is poor do not get too caught up in trading. DO NOT over trade and if you have to enter a trade or you are suckered in make sure that your position sizes are small.</li>\r\n 	<li>The reality is; these are times to get a grip and exercise TRADING DISCIPLINE.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nFrom a trading perspective, the PREMIUM SERVICE trading results continued upwards. Barring a catastrophe over the long weekend, the PREMIUM SERVICE trading accounts are ahead of the 2016 target which is fantastic considering the negative position at the end of February this year.\r\n\r\nNo trader can be complacent in these times, hence the title of this weeks blog. I feel so strongly about this subject, that it would normally only appear in the “subscribers only” section. However, because we are entering the summer and the silly season with several geopolitical events, it is in my opinion, a great time to refresh the basics for everyone. As always, I keep it simple and without complication so that regardless of trading experience it is easy to follow…. hopefully!\r\n\r\nShifting gears…\r\n\r\nFREE PREMIUM SERVICE subscriptions, just to remind you; you could be the next winner of a free PREMIUM SERVICE subscription; if you subscribe to receive this free blog via my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nYou are automatically entered into a free monthly draw, once you’ve subscribed. Each month during 2016 one lucky blog subscriber will receive a free subscription to the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\nAs I am the UK and IRELAND in June and early July the next winner will enjoy a subscription until my summer break in mid July. The next draw after the one in a couple of weeks will then be early September after my summer break from blogging.\r\n\r\nMy plans for the short tour of the UK and IRELAND (see chart below with itinerary) are intensifying a lot more now. My power point software skills are being pushed to the limits, never mind the continual refining of the presentation content.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/TOUR-DATES-2016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7522\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/TOUR-DATES-2016.png\" alt=\"TOUR DATES 2016\" width=\"624\" height=\"397\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nI hope to meet and greet many traders on this trip and I am really excited about the presentations that are scheduled. Please come along if you can and bring friends who you think may be interested in starting to trade the Forex market.\r\n\r\nSpaces are limited so to register for an event, please go to my landing page on <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> and click on LIVE EVENTS. The drop down menu there has all the information that you will require, plus the email address to use to register at to reserve a space. I would place it here but I would end up getting thousand’s of SPAM emails, which I want to avoid.\r\n\r\nPlease note that because of the TOUR, copies of this blog will have a revised format on the following dates: -\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">18<sup>th</sup> June 2016\r\n25<sup>th</sup> June 2016\r\n2<sup>nd</sup> July 2016</p>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber, fee based trade set-up option for Forex traders regardless of experience or background. I provide traders suggested trades, and some market commentary related to open trades or factors within the overall market that have my interest.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and the various trade styles plus how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nAdditional information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE you will require a credit card.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><u>PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION COSTS:</u></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Details of features and benefits of a PREMIUM SERVICE subscription can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the dropdown tab at the top of the page entitled HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE OF THE PREMIUM SERVICE. To subscribe follow the SUBSCRIBE HERE tab.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">PREMIUM SERVICE subscription costs are as follows: -</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">CAD$240.00 - 4 weeks (1 month)\r\nCAD$500.00 - 10 weeks (3 months)\r\nCAD$750.00 - 20 weeks (6 months)\r\nCAD$1,250.00 - 40 weeks (12 months)\r\n<u>PLUS</u>: Existing PLATINUM MEMBERS (annual subscribers) can re-subscribe for a further 12 months for CAD$1,000.00\r\n\r\nI work for about 50 weeks a year. Subscriptions are based on 40 published blogs of the WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU per year. For the remaining 10 weeks, I am around tweeting, posting and managing existing LIVE trades, although my market activity is reduced.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><u> </u></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><u>PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE THIS MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:</u></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">\r\nNET PIPS THIS MONTH SO FAR:            +2,025\r\nNET PIPS THIS YEAR SO FAR:                +5,839</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">NET PIPS 2015:       +10,686\r\nNET PIPS 2014:       +11,209\r\n(I trade basically for 10 months a year. I do not trade from mid July through early September or mid December through early January).</p>\r\nIf you want more data or detail about the performance and the tabs on my website landing page do not answer your questions, contact me directly and I will supply the trading data you require. There are NO secrets. There are many, many spreadsheets detailing performance trade by trade and by trade and by trading style, way too many to place in this blog. If you are interested in the PREMIUM SERVICE and want more information, all you have to do is ask.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>LAST WEEK’S NEWS – MY THOUGHTS:</strong>\r\n\r\nFrom my perspective, last week was a little boring and somewhat light on news events to move the market. Maybe that is one reason why the most liquid pair in the FX market, the EUR/USD, spent a lot of time in a 30-40 pip trading range. Only on Friday last week after Janet Yellen spoke in Harvard did we see a knicker-gripping 90 pip trading range. When I noticed this move I had to hold my head back to stop the blood from my nose and grab a few tissues. Even at my age a sudden shock causes a nosebleed.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nThe big news of the week was the BOC interest rate announcement. I was secretly hoping for a rate cut, well hardly secretly; I think I put that thought out on twitter. Not that that matters too much, my disillusionment with twitter continues. All the arse licking at the end of each week with thanks to all my #FF’s stuff is making me vomit. Is the world just full of insecure people who cannot get by without constant reassurance? To me it is bloody ridiculous; my wife sells Personal Development programs and business opportunities for individuals and corporate bodies. If she ever tells me that she thinks that her marketplace is shrinking, all I have to do is show her a couple hours of tweets of twitter. Talk about an unlimited marketplace full of opportunities.\r\n\r\nGetting back on track…\r\n\r\nThe BOC held rates unchanged. I have to live with this decision. However, Canada is a small country population wise, huge geographically and it has problems looming in the not too distant future. I think that its unfair that the USD/CAD and cross rates are treated as proxy’s for oil, but it is what it is. The wild fires in Fort McMurray will create problems for the broader Canadian economy. We are talking pure devastation and the fact that the BOC once again under Stephen Poloz believes all is OK, baffles me.\r\n\r\nSomeone has to pay to make good. That will be the taxpayer and that will bring to halt any bullishness that Poloz and his chaps see in the economy.\r\n\r\nThe wildfires could place the Canadian economy back in a technical recession very quickly. Plus, when you add to this, the fact that Oil cannot maintain prices above $50, it\'s a double whammy. It\'s a triple whammy when those who have been laid off in the oil sands areas of late are no longer available to re-hire. They tend to be country transient workers; at least I am led to believe the vast majority are.\r\n\r\nThere will be interest rate cuts to ZIRP.\r\n\r\nBefore the Fort McMurray wildfires, the BOC were concerned with some poor economic data that was making them look at the possibility of QE (Quantitative Easing) and negative interest rates. By fluke, the data leveled out and stimulus was placed on the back burner… watch this space moving forward.\r\n\r\nI am critical of central banks that play behind the curve, or, simply have no fecking idea what a curve is or what they should be looking for.\r\n\r\nThe BOC has at times maintained a “Head in the Sand” approach, even when the Canadian economy was in technical recession last year, the BOC were still talking about the garden being rosy. They hoped that Government policy from the new Justin Trudeau Prime Minister’s budget would “kick start” any lagers. In my opinion, Central Bank monetary policy should NOT be left to hope!!\r\n\r\nTime will tell.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>WHAT’S BIG ON MY MIND:</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>THE NIGHTMARE SCENARIO…PART TWO</strong>\r\n(With all the geopolitical events on the horizon, I want to revisit the basic TRADING RISK to your broker account)</p>\r\n<em>“I trade, I blog and do my very best to provide my subscribers with trade set-ups to make them and myself a nice little income. I am now using the phrase “STEADY EDDIE” a lot as I believe it’s all about consistency and letting the trades come to you. There is little point trading for trade’s sake. It’s not my style and I believe that one should stick to one’s strengths rather than have weaknesses exposed”.</em>\r\n\r\nThe above was my opening paragraph for this section last week.\r\n\r\nI want to follow on from the points I raised last week but attack it from a trading perspective. To my subscribers and in this blog for the past three years I have been banging the same drum over and over again with regards to: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>RISK MANAGEMENT</li>\r\n 	<li>MONEY MANAGEMENT</li>\r\n 	<li>TRADING DISCIPLINES</li>\r\n 	<li>TRADE PLANS</li>\r\n 	<li>POSITION SIZING</li>\r\n 	<li>TRADING PSYCHOLOGY</li>\r\n 	<li>KEYS TO TRADING LONGEVITY</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nI feel even more strongly about these matters as we enter the summer doldrums of June, July and August. From now on it will be known as the “Silly Season”.\r\n\r\nWe have the following to consider from now through the “Silly Season” and beyond. It is not just a single issue, we have a potential domino effect: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>DONALD TRUMP – THE U.S. PRESIDENTIAL CIRCUS</li>\r\n 	<li>HOUSING BUBBLES</li>\r\n 	<li>BREXIT and UK FRAGILITY</li>\r\n 	<li>EUROZONE IMPLOSION / CONTAGION EFFECT</li>\r\n 	<li>JAPAN ECONOMIC / POLITICAL FAILURE</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nBack to my main point…\r\n\r\nWhen you become a Forex Trader, you move to the dark side. There are some extreme weirdo’s that trade Forex and there are some really nice people. The one thing in common, is that most of us do not get enough sleep and we trade in extremes at times. Some, if not all of this, is self-inflicted.\r\n\r\nLike the markets we too are at times driven by FEAR and GREED. This manifests itself by us NOT sticking to our TRADE PLANS and exposing ourselves to too much RISK.\r\n\r\nGiven the events on the horizon, I believe that now is the time to revisit RISK from the perspective of POSITION SIZING.\r\n\r\nHow much should you risk per trade?\r\n\r\nThere are many schools of thought and reference points on how to answer this question. My peer group has different opinions. It is a personal decision how much RISK; as in how much of a loss you will tolerate. This you have to manage yourself.\r\n\r\nI can tell you that after 9 years of trading my views have altered slightly. I used to say 2% per trade. Then I moved to 3.5% per trade. Now I have settled at 3%, and on occasions I have stretched to 3.5% on the more liquid USD majors as a maximum. But in 95% of occasions my position sizes reflect that my eventual RISK TOLERANCE level in any one trade is 3%. I play with position sizes and STOP LOSS positions to manage this.\r\n\r\nI would say that if you are new to Forex Trading regardless of your financial circumstances, I would RISK less than 2% until you grasp the market moves better.\r\n\r\nLosses are capital losses. CAPITAL PRESERVATION is critical to LONGEVITY in Forex Trading. You must think longer-term. Trading Forex, despite the spam email you receive in your inboxes is NOT a get rich quick opportunity. These emails about automatic robot systems are bullsh*t. If these robots were that good do you not think that the banks would be out there buying them all up and sacking thousand’s of staff?\r\n\r\nIn the chart below, I have highlighted the difference between risking 3% of your capital in a trade than 10%.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/3v10-POSITION-SIZING-28052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7963\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/3v10-POSITION-SIZING-28052016.png\" alt=\"3%v10% POSITION SIZING 28052016\" width=\"377\" height=\"423\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nFirstly, I hope that you can see that there is a huge difference between risking 3% of your account than 10% of your account per trade.\r\n\r\nOne reason why so many traders fail with Forex, is that they either do NOT understand how to manage RISK, which, makes them pretty much gamblers.\r\n\r\nI stopped low price entry-level subscriptions to the PREMIUM SERVICE because I was getting mostly time consuming gamblers who only wanted 15 trades a day, regardless of quality. That is NOT me and it is NOT my style.\r\n\r\nBack to the chart above…\r\n\r\nIf you started with an account of $25,000.00 and you had a losing streak of 14 trades in a row, your account would now only have $5,719.20 left, if you risked 10% per trade.\r\n\r\nYou would have lost 77% of your account.\r\n\r\nRisking 3% of your account, you still would have lost $8,679.09 yielding a loss of 34% in comparison to losing 77% of your account balance by risking 10%\r\n\r\nThese examples are extremes; one would not expect to go on a losing streak of 14 trades in a row, but I hope the point is made even if you looked at the chart from say a 4 trade-losing streak.\r\n\r\nThe purpose of the chart I hope shows that unless traders trade with POSITION SIZING and RISK MANAGEMENT controls in place, the hope of PRESERVING CAPITAL which gives you LONGEVITY on trading is out of the window. That is of course unless you have one of those unique money trees in your garden or unlimited funds that enable you to keep re-financing your broker account. If you have either of these may I suggest Vegas baby…that\'s the place to go!!\r\n\r\nNot sure about you, but the thoughts of losing almost 80% of my accounts, does not sit well with me at all.\r\n\r\nAs we enter the “Silly Season” it is paramount that regardless of trading experience we always observe our core principles and disciplines. It is much harder to replace losses when they have gone, it really does require discipline, I know, I have been there.\r\n\r\nWe should also bear in mind as we go into “Silly Season” that liquidity will be less and therefore we can have dramatic moves at times. If you trade throughout the year you will need your wits about you all the time.\r\n\r\nAbout a month ago I produced an excel spreadsheet for my subscribers, based upon my POSITION SIZES for the “Silly Season”. I grouped trading pairs together and charted what my position sizes would be from an entry level through to 100%. This chart was based in most cases on halving my usual position sizes. This is how seriously I will be treating what is basically the remainder of 2016.\r\n\r\n(FOR PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS – the section will be copied and added as a PDF to the EDUCATION section of the PREMIUM SERVICE website)\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBER EXCLUSIVE AREA:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> COMING UP THIS WEEK:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>THIS WEEK’S FOREX NEWS THAT INTERESTS ME:</u>\r\n\r\n(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market other than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to <a href=\"http://www.forexfactory.com\">www.forexfactory.com</a> and <a href=\"http://www.tradingeconomics.com\">www.tradingeconomics.com</a> for a more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).\r\n\r\nSUNDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: CAD – GDP.\r\nTUESDAY: USD – Consumer Confidence.\r\nTUESDAY: CNY – PMi.\r\nTUESDAY: AUD – GDP.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: NZD – Annual Budget Release.\r\nWEDNESDAY: AUD – Retail Sales and Trade Balance.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: EUR – ECB Interest Rate and Press Conference.\r\nTHURSDAY: USD – ADP Non-Farm Payrolls.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: USD – Non-Farm Payrolls / Average Hourly Earnings.\r\nFRIDAY: CAD – Trade Balance.\r\n<u>THE USD MAJORS – MY THOUGHTS (A REVIEW): </u>\r\n\r\n(In this section I have as usual kept my charts as minimalist as possible. With regards to charting in my opinion less is more!! I hope that they are clear. All readers regardless of level of experience should be able to follow my thoughts from my comments to the levels on the charts with ease)\r\n\r\nMy comments are contained on the charts.\r\n\r\nEUR/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.1110\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/EURUSD-DAILY-28052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7972\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/EURUSD-DAILY-28052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"EURUSD DAILY 28052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nGBP/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.4617\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/GBPUSD-DAILY-28052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7973\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/GBPUSD-DAILY-28052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"GBPUSD DAILY 28052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nAUD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.7182\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/AUDUSD-D-28052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7971\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/AUDUSD-D-28052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"AUDUSD D 28052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nNZD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.6690\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/NZDUSD-DAILY-28052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7974\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/NZDUSD-DAILY-28052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"NZDUSD DAILY 28052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.3028\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDCAD-DAILY-28052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7975\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDCAD-DAILY-28052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"USDCAD DAILY 28052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF - Weekly Closing Price: 0.946\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDCHF-DAILY-208502016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7976\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDCHF-DAILY-208502016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"USDCHF DAILY 208502016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY - Weekly Closing Price: 110.22\r\n\r\n<u><a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDJPY-DAILY-28052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7977\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDJPY-DAILY-28052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"USDJPY DAILY 28052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a></u>\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u>MY CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nAnother Non-Farm Payroll week has come around. This time Mario Draghi is also front and centre with an ECB Press Conference.\r\n\r\nBoth items are big news events as the FED is ready to raise rates and those people saying that June is off the table are not applying the FED thinking. I believe they want a couple of additional rate hikes in the bag before the U.S. Presidential Election just in case the “DONALD” is elected. I think the FOMC will be saying forget about the BREXIT to a large extent as we have a bigger worry to consider in our own country.\r\n\r\nFED speak has been broadly hawkish including Janet Yellen herself last Friday when speaking in Harvard. Take nothing for granted with the FED. They are still on a divergent monetary policy.\r\n\r\nDraghi will be pressed on the leaked EUROZONE PLAN B for the UK BREXIT referendum. Lets be honest it must at least be PLAN P by now as the EUROZONE find it hard to agree on anything. Frankly, how PLAN P looks will be anyone’s guess. As I understand it, it’s centered on the CONTAGION EFFECT that a BREXIT could start in the EUROZONE.\r\n\r\nI am sure that Mario Draghi will not be the architect of such a PLAN P, but he must have been privy to its content, one would have thought.\r\n\r\nLets see if he confirms or denies such a document exists. If it does exist, it must be easy to identify, as it will be a document super glued to coke cans ready to be kicked down the open road outside of Brussels.\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nTake care,\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nDATE: 28th May 2016\r\nBLOG VERSION: #203 FREE NEWSLETTER','THE NIGHTMARE SCENARIO…PART TWO','','inherit','closed','closed','','7984-revision-v1','','','2016-05-28 12:26:59','2016-05-28 17:26:59','',7984,'http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/7984-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(7981,1,'2016-05-28 11:57:13','2016-05-28 16:57:13','<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>THE NIGHTMARE SCENARIO…PART TWO</strong>\r\n(With all the geopolitical events on the horizon, I want to revisit the basic TRADING RISK to your broker account)</p>\r\n\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong> INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThe “chop fest” continued last week, but in addition the trading ranges just seem to get more and more compressed. The EUR/USD, which in my opinion needs to keep moving up and down to keep the markets moving, was caught in a 30 pip trading range for many days.\r\n\r\nWhat does this tell me?\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>Right or wrong; if the most liquid pair in the FX market is not moving, liquidity is probably poor. I know there can be other technical reasons but this situation where the EUR/USD had only 30 pip movements for two/three days, is as scarce as crap out of a rocking horse! I am 100% on the liquidity reason and I can find no other explanation.</li>\r\n 	<li>If liquidity is poor do not get too caught up in trading. DO NOT over trade and if you have to enter a trade or you are suckered in make sure that your position sizes are small.</li>\r\n 	<li>The reality is; these are times to get a grip and exercise TRADING DISCIPLINE.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nFrom a trading perspective, the PREMIUM SERVICE trading results continued upwards. Barring a catastrophe over the long weekend, the PREMIUM SERVICE trading accounts are ahead of the 2016 target which is fantastic considering the negative position at the end of February this year.\r\n\r\nNo trader can be complacent in these times, hence the title of this weeks blog. I feel so strongly about this subject, that it would normally only appear in the “subscribers only” section. However, because we are entering the summer and the silly season with several geopolitical events, it is in my opinion, a great time to refresh the basics for everyone. As always, I keep it simple and without complication so that regardless of trading experience it is easy to follow…. hopefully!\r\n\r\nShifting gears…\r\n\r\nFREE PREMIUM SERVICE subscriptions, just to remind you; you could be the next winner of a free PREMIUM SERVICE subscription; if you subscribe to receive this free blog via my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nYou are automatically entered into a free monthly draw, once you’ve subscribed. Each month during 2016 one lucky blog subscriber will receive a free subscription to the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\nAs I am the UK and IRELAND in June and early July the next winner will enjoy a subscription until my summer break in mid July. The next draw after the one in a couple of weeks will then be early September after my summer break from blogging.\r\n\r\nMy plans for the short tour of the UK and IRELAND (see chart below with itinerary) are intensifying a lot more now. My power point software skills are being pushed to the limits, never mind the continual refining of the presentation content.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/TOUR-DATES-2016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7597\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/TOUR-DATES-2016.png\" alt=\"TOUR DATES 2016\" width=\"630\" height=\"397\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nI hope to meet and greet many traders on this trip and I am really excited about the presentations that are scheduled. Please come along if you can and bring friends who you think may be interested in starting to trade the Forex market.\r\n\r\nSpaces are limited so to register for an event, please go to my landing page on <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> and click on LIVE EVENTS. The drop down menu there has all the information that you will require, plus the email address to use to register at to reserve a space. I would place it here but I would end up getting thousand’s of SPAM emails, which I want to avoid.\r\n\r\nPlease note that because of the TOUR, copies of this blog will have a revised format on the following dates: -\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">18<sup>th</sup> June 2016\r\n25<sup>th</sup> June 2016\r\n2<sup>nd</sup> July 2016</p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber, fee based trade set-up option for Forex traders regardless of experience or background. I provide traders suggested trades, and some market commentary related to open trades or factors within the overall market that have my interest.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and the various trade styles plus how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nAdditional information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE you will require a credit card.\r\n\r\n<u>PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION COSTS:</u>\r\n\r\nDetails of features and benefits of a PREMIUM SERVICE subscription can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the dropdown tab at the top of the page entitled HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE OF THE PREMIUM SERVICE. To subscribe follow the SUBSCRIBE HERE tab.\r\n\r\nPREMIUM SERVICE subscription costs are as follows: -\r\n\r\nCAD$240.00 - 4 weeks (1 month)\r\nCAD$500.00 - 10 weeks (3 months)\r\nCAD$750.00 - 20 weeks (6 months)\r\nCAD$1,250.00 - 40 weeks (12 months)\r\n<u>PLUS</u>: Existing PLATINUM MEMBERS (annual subscribers) can re-subscribe for a further 12 months for CAD$1,000.00\r\n\r\nI work for about 50 weeks a year. Subscriptions are based on 40 published blogs of the WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU per year. For the remaining 10 weeks, I am around tweeting, posting and managing existing LIVE trades, although my market activity is reduced.\r\n\r\n<u>PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE THIS MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\nNET PIPS THIS MONTH SO FAR:            +2,025\r\nNET PIPS THIS YEAR SO FAR:                +5,839\r\n\r\nNET PIPS 2015:       +10,686\r\nNET PIPS 2014:       +11,209\r\n(I trade basically for 10 months a year. I do not trade from mid July through early September or mid December through early January).\r\n\r\nIf you want more data or detail about the performance and the tabs on my website landing page do not answer your questions, contact me directly and I will supply the trading data you require. There are NO secrets. There are many, many spreadsheets detailing performance trade by trade and by trade and by trading style, way too many to place in this blog. If you are interested in the PREMIUM SERVICE and want more information, all you have to do is ask.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>LAST WEEK’S NEWS – MY THOUGHTS:</strong>\r\n\r\nFrom my perspective, last week was a little boring and somewhat light on news events to move the market. Maybe that is one reason why the most liquid pair in the FX market, the EUR/USD, spent a lot of time in a 30-40 pip trading range. Only on Friday last week after Janet Yellen spoke in Harvard did we see a knicker-gripping 90 pip trading range. When I noticed this move I had to hold my head back to stop the blood from my nose and grab a few tissues. Even at my age a sudden shock causes a nosebleed.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nThe big news of the week was the BOC interest rate announcement. I was secretly hoping for a rate cut, well hardly secretly; I think I put that thought out on twitter. Not that that matters too much, my disillusionment with twitter continues. All the arse licking at the end of each week with thanks to all my #FF’s stuff is making me vomit. Is the world just full of insecure people who cannot get by without constant reassurance? To me it is bloody ridiculous; my wife sells Personal Development programs and business opportunities for individuals and corporate bodies. If she ever tells me that she thinks that her marketplace is shrinking, all I have to do is show her a couple hours of tweets of twitter. Talk about an unlimited marketplace full of opportunities.\r\n\r\nGetting back on track…\r\n\r\nThe BOC held rates unchanged. I have to live with this decision. However, Canada is a small country population wise, huge geographically and it has problems looming in the not too distant future. I think that its unfair that the USD/CAD and cross rates are treated as proxy’s for oil, but it is what it is. The wild fires in Fort McMurray will create problems for the broader Canadian economy. We are talking pure devastation and the fact that the BOC once again under Stephen Poloz believes all is OK, baffles me.\r\n\r\nSomeone has to pay to make good. That will be the taxpayer and that will bring to halt any bullishness that Poloz and his chaps see in the economy.\r\n\r\nThe wildfires could place the Canadian economy back in a technical recession very quickly. Plus, when you add to this, the fact that Oil cannot maintain prices above $50, it\'s a double whammy. It\'s a triple whammy when those who have been laid off in the oil sands areas of late are no longer available to re-hire. They tend to be country transient workers; at least I am led to believe the vast majority are.\r\n\r\nThere will be interest rate cuts to ZIRP.\r\n\r\nBefore the Fort McMurray wildfires, the BOC were concerned with some poor economic data that was making them look at the possibility of QE (Quantitative Easing) and negative interest rates. By fluke, the data leveled out and stimulus was placed on the back burner… watch this space moving forward.\r\n\r\nI am critical of central banks that play behind the curve, or, simply have no fecking idea what a curve is or what they should be looking for.\r\n\r\nThe BOC has at times maintained a “Head in the Sand” approach, even when the Canadian economy was in technical recession last year, the BOC were still talking about the garden being rosy. They hoped that Government policy from the new Justin Trudeau Prime Minister’s budget would “kick start” any lagers. In my opinion, Central Bank monetary policy should NOT be left to hope!!\r\n\r\nTime will tell.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>WHAT’S BIG ON MY MIND:</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>THE NIGHTMARE SCENARIO…PART TWO</strong>\r\n(With all the geopolitical events on the horizon, I want to revisit the basic TRADING RISK to your broker account)</p>\r\n<em>“I trade, I blog and do my very best to provide my subscribers with trade set-ups to make them and myself a nice little income. I am now using the phrase “STEADY EDDIE” a lot as I believe it’s all about consistency and letting the trades come to you. There is little point trading for trade’s sake. It’s not my style and I believe that one should stick to one’s strengths rather than have weaknesses exposed”.</em>\r\n\r\nThe above was my opening paragraph for this section last week.\r\n\r\nI want to follow on from the points I raised last week but attack it from a trading perspective. To my subscribers and in this blog for the past three years I have been banging the same drum over and over again with regards to: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>RISK MANAGEMENT</li>\r\n 	<li>MONEY MANAGEMENT</li>\r\n 	<li>TRADING DISCIPLINES</li>\r\n 	<li>TRADE PLANS</li>\r\n 	<li>POSITION SIZING</li>\r\n 	<li>TRADING PSYCHOLOGY</li>\r\n 	<li>KEYS TO TRADING LONGEVITY</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nI feel even more strongly about these matters as we enter the summer doldrums of June, July and August. From now on it will be known as the “Silly Season”.\r\n\r\nWe have the following to consider from now through the “Silly Season” and beyond. It is not just a single issue, we have a potential domino effect: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>DONALD TRUMP – THE U.S. PRESIDENTIAL CIRCUS</li>\r\n 	<li>HOUSING BUBBLES</li>\r\n 	<li>BREXIT and UK FRAGILITY</li>\r\n 	<li>EUROZONE IMPLOSION / CONTAGION EFFECT</li>\r\n 	<li>JAPAN ECONOMIC / POLITICAL FAILURE</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nBack to my main point…\r\n\r\nWhen you become a Forex Trader, you move to the dark side. There are some extreme weirdo’s that trade Forex and there are some really nice people. The one thing in common, is that most of us do not get enough sleep and we trade in extremes at times. Some, if not all of this, is self-inflicted.\r\n\r\nLike the markets we too are at times driven by FEAR and GREED. This manifests itself by us NOT sticking to our TRADE PLANS and exposing ourselves to too much RISK.\r\n\r\nGiven the events on the horizon, I believe that now is the time to revisit RISK from the perspective of POSITION SIZING.\r\n\r\nHow much should you risk per trade?\r\n\r\nThere are many schools of thought and reference points on how to answer this question. My peer group has different opinions. It is a personal decision how much RISK; as in how much of a loss you will tolerate. This you have to manage yourself.\r\n\r\nI can tell you that after 9 years of trading my views have altered slightly. I used to say 2% per trade. Then I moved to 3.5% per trade. Now I have settled at 3%, and on occasions I have stretched to 3.5% on the more liquid USD majors as a maximum. But in 95% of occasions my position sizes reflect that my eventual RISK TOLERANCE level in any one trade is 3%. I play with position sizes and STOP LOSS positions to manage this.\r\n\r\nI would say that if you are new to Forex Trading regardless of your financial circumstances, I would RISK less than 2% until you grasp the market moves better.\r\n\r\nLosses are capital losses. CAPITAL PRESERVATION is critical to LONGEVITY in Forex Trading. You must think longer-term. Trading Forex, despite the spam email you receive in your inboxes is NOT a get rich quick opportunity. These emails about automatic robot systems are bullsh*t. If these robots were that good do you not think that the banks would be out there buying them all up and sacking thousand’s of staff?\r\n\r\nIn the chart below, I have highlighted the difference between risking 3% of your capital in a trade than 10%.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/3v10-POSITION-SIZING-28052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7963\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/3v10-POSITION-SIZING-28052016.png\" alt=\"3%v10% POSITION SIZING 28052016\" width=\"377\" height=\"423\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nFirstly, I hope that you can see that there is a huge difference between risking 3% of your account than 10% of your account per trade.\r\n\r\nOne reason why so many traders fail with Forex, is that they either do NOT understand how to manage RISK, which, makes them pretty much gamblers.\r\n\r\nI stopped low price entry-level subscriptions to the PREMIUM SERVICE because I was getting mostly time consuming gamblers who only wanted 15 trades a day, regardless of quality. That is NOT me and it is NOT my style.\r\n\r\nBack to the chart above…\r\n\r\nIf you started with an account of $25,000.00 and you had a losing streak of 14 trades in a row, your account would now only have $5,719.20 left, if you risked 10% per trade.\r\n\r\nYou would have lost 77% of your account.\r\n\r\nRisking 3% of your account, you still would have lost $8,679.09 yielding a loss of 34% in comparison to losing 77% of your account balance by risking 10%\r\n\r\nThese examples are extremes; one would not expect to go on a losing streak of 14 trades in a row, but I hope the point is made even if you looked at the chart from say a 4 trade-losing streak.\r\n\r\nThe purpose of the chart I hope shows that unless traders trade with POSITION SIZING and RISK MANAGEMENT controls in place, the hope of PRESERVING CAPITAL which gives you LONGEVITY on trading is out of the window. That is of course unless you have one of those unique money trees in your garden or unlimited funds that enable you to keep re-financing your broker account. If you have either of these may I suggest Vegas baby…that\'s the place to go!!\r\n\r\nNot sure about you, but the thoughts of losing almost 80% of my accounts, does not sit well with me at all.\r\n\r\nAs we enter the “Silly Season” it is paramount that regardless of trading experience we always observe our core principles and disciplines. It is much harder to replace losses when they have gone, it really does require discipline, I know, I have been there.\r\n\r\nWe should also bear in mind as we go into “Silly Season” that liquidity will be less and therefore we can have dramatic moves at times. If you trade throughout the year you will need your wits about you all the time.\r\n\r\nAbout a month ago I produced an excel spreadsheet for my subscribers, based upon my POSITION SIZES for the “Silly Season”. I grouped trading pairs together and charted what my position sizes would be from an entry level through to 100%. This chart was based in most cases on halving my usual position sizes. This is how seriously I will be treating what is basically the remainder of 2016.\r\n\r\n(FOR PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS – the section will be copied and added as a PDF to the EDUCATION section of the PREMIUM SERVICE website)\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBER EXCLUSIVE AREA:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>THE PREMIUM SERVICE – TRADING REVIEW:\r\n</strong>(This section can cover a multitude of points / facts etc. Basically it’s a 360-degree review, which I think should interest subscribers):\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nTRADING REVIEW:\r\n\r\nOverall, I am very happy to have a pip total at almost 6,000 after 5 months of 2016, considering the issues earlier in the year.\r\n\r\nI had a SKYPE conversation / meeting with my peer group last Thursday to discuss the market and basically the “Silly Season” items on the horizon.\r\n\r\nThe consensus is that there will be poor liquidity throughout most of June, July and August and probably until mid September. Our ex banker in the group was also talking about some brokers that are being squeezed at the moment as the bigger banks are not as active themselves in the market. That could develop over the summer.\r\n\r\nNothing ground breaking was discussed, just a consensus for caution really moving forward and to be ready for fireworks. They believe my “Doom and Gloom” to be a little excessive, I defended myself… we will soon see if I am too negative on matters!!\r\n\r\nI am timed via my marketing plan to start telephoning my brokers this week for a review chat on all things Forex. I will soon know if business is down or up for brokers if I can hear desperation in their voices or the clanking of Gin bottles in the background!!\r\n\r\nWith regards to specific trading policies, I did a huge clear-out last week to re-load again. At the time I always think it\'s a good idea and then shortly after I give myself a good kicking for doing it. They jury is still out on whether I was too hasty or not. However, I always come back to the fact that its never a bad time to bank profits!!\r\n\r\nThis week we have NFP once again. So I will be light going into the data release on Friday. We also have Draghi and an ECB Press Conference plus Aussie GDP and Retail sales and Canadian GDP and Trade balance. We need to be patient this week.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nSUBSCRIPTIONS:\r\n\r\nPricing options are now in CAD$.\r\n\r\nSILVER membership has been removed; being honest, I know a few of you have traded up, but as I said all SILVER memberships really attracted were gamblers, who were time consuming, just looking for multiple trades per day.\r\n\r\nFrankly I want traders with me who are interested in the long-term, with steady income requirements that can supplement existing household income by being a part-time trader or those looking to develop a full-time income but being based upon longer-term horizons.\r\n\r\nThose of you who sign up, or have signed up for annual subscriptions have been raised to PLATINUM SUBSCRIBERS (the highest level of subscription). The initial benefit of this is that annual subscribers who renew for a further 12 months will receive a discount from the published price option. Currently it is CAD$1,250.00 to initially subscribe for 12 months with renewals for an annual PLATINUM subscriber at CAD$1,000.00.\r\n\r\n<strong>CHARTS THAT ARE ATTRACTING MY INTEREST:</strong>\r\n\r\nOnly the USD/SEK this week has my eye. With the Bank Holiday on Monday a normal review will take place on Monday evening and I will alert via Twitter at that stage if something is jumping off the page at me.\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDSEK-DAILY-28052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7979\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDSEK-DAILY-28052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"USDSEK DAILY 28052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>TRADES REVIEW:</strong>\r\n\r\nAs requested by a few of you I have re-instated the trade by trade excel summary sheets.\r\n\r\nThe excel spreadsheets below details current LIVE and pending LIMIT ORDER trades: -\r\n\r\n<strong><a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/LIVE-TRADES-28052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7962\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/LIVE-TRADES-28052016.png\" alt=\"LIVE TRADES 28052016\" width=\"805\" height=\"588\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/LIMIT-ORDERS-28052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7961\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/LIMIT-ORDERS-28052016.png\" alt=\"LIMIT ORDERS 28052016\" width=\"669\" height=\"458\" /></a> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> COMING UP THIS WEEK:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>THIS WEEK’S FOREX NEWS THAT INTERESTS ME:</u>\r\n\r\n(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market other than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to <a href=\"http://www.forexfactory.com\">www.forexfactory.com</a> and <a href=\"http://www.tradingeconomics.com\">www.tradingeconomics.com</a> for a more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).\r\n\r\nSUNDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: CAD – GDP.\r\nTUESDAY: USD – Consumer Confidence.\r\nTUESDAY: CNY – PMi.\r\nTUESDAY: AUD – GDP.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: NZD – Annual Budget Release.\r\nWEDNESDAY: AUD – Retail Sales and Trade Balance.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: EUR – ECB Interest Rate and Press Conference.\r\nTHURSDAY: USD – ADP Non-Farm Payrolls.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: USD – Non-Farm Payrolls / Average Hourly Earnings.\r\nFRIDAY: CAD – Trade Balance.\r\n\r\n<u>THE USD MAJORS – MY THOUGHTS (A REVIEW): </u>\r\n\r\n(In this section I have as usual kept my charts as minimalist as possible. With regards to charting in my opinion less is more!! I hope that they are clear. All readers regardless of level of experience should be able to follow my thoughts from my comments to the levels on the charts with ease)\r\n\r\nMy comments are contained on the charts.\r\n\r\nEUR/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.1110\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/EURUSD-DAILY-28052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7972\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/EURUSD-DAILY-28052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"EURUSD DAILY 28052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nGBP/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.4617\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/GBPUSD-DAILY-28052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7973\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/GBPUSD-DAILY-28052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"GBPUSD DAILY 28052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nAUD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.7182\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/AUDUSD-D-28052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7971\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/AUDUSD-D-28052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"AUDUSD D 28052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nNZD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.6690\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/NZDUSD-DAILY-28052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7974\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/NZDUSD-DAILY-28052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"NZDUSD DAILY 28052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.3028\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDCAD-DAILY-28052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7975\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDCAD-DAILY-28052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"USDCAD DAILY 28052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF - Weekly Closing Price: 0.946\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDCHF-DAILY-208502016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7976\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDCHF-DAILY-208502016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"USDCHF DAILY 208502016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY - Weekly Closing Price: 110.22\r\n\r\n<u><a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDJPY-DAILY-28052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7977\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDJPY-DAILY-28052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"USDJPY DAILY 28052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a></u>\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u>MY CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nAnother Non-Farm Payroll week has come around. This time Mario Draghi is also front and centre with an ECB Press Conference.\r\n\r\nBoth items are big news events as the FED is ready to raise rates and those people saying that June is off the table are not applying the FED thinking. I believe they want a couple of additional rate hikes in the bag before the U.S. Presidential Election just in case the “DONALD” is elected. I think the FOMC will be saying forget about the BREXIT to a large extent as we have a bigger worry to consider in our own country.\r\n\r\nFED speak has been broadly hawkish including Janet Yellen herself last Friday when speaking in Harvard. Take nothing for granted with the FED. They are still on a divergent monetary policy.\r\n\r\nDraghi will be pressed on the leaked EUROZONE PLAN B for the UK BREXIT referendum. Lets be honest it must at least be PLAN P by now as the EUROZONE find it hard to agree on anything. Frankly, how PLAN P looks will be anyone’s guess. As I understand it, it’s centered on the CONTAGION EFFECT that a BREXIT could start in the EUROZONE.\r\n\r\nI am sure that Mario Draghi will not be the architect of such a PLAN P, but he must have been privy to its content, one would have thought.\r\n\r\nLets see if he confirms or denies such a document exists. If it does exist, it must be easy to identify, as it will be a document super glued to coke cans ready to be kicked down the open road outside of Brussels.\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nTake care,\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nDATE: 28th May 2016\r\nBLOG VERSION: #104 PREMIUM SERVICE VERSION\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','THE NIGHTMARE SCENARIO…PART TWO','','inherit','closed','closed','','7978-revision-v1','','','2016-05-28 11:57:13','2016-05-28 16:57:13','',7978,'http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/7978-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(7952,1,'2016-05-28 05:18:46','2016-05-28 10:18:46','','PREM SERV PROFITS1 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28052016','','inherit','open','closed','','usdcad-daily-28052016','','','2016-05-28 11:53:20','2016-05-28 16:53:20','',7978,'http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDCAD-DAILY-28052016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(7976,1,'2016-05-28 10:19:05','2016-05-28 15:19:05','','USDCHF DAILY 208502016','','inherit','open','closed','','usdchf-daily-208502016','','','2016-05-28 11:53:28','2016-05-28 16:53:28','',7978,'http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDCHF-DAILY-208502016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(7977,1,'2016-05-28 10:19:06','2016-05-28 15:19:06','','USDJPY DAILY 28052016','','inherit','open','closed','','usdjpy-daily-28052016','','','2016-05-28 11:53:44','2016-05-28 16:53:44','',7978,'http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDJPY-DAILY-28052016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(7978,1,'2016-05-28 11:57:13','2016-05-28 16:57:13','<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>THE NIGHTMARE SCENARIO…PART TWO</strong>\r\n(With all the geopolitical events on the horizon, I want to revisit the basic TRADING RISK to your broker account)</p>\r\n\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong> INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThe “chop fest” continued last week, but in addition the trading ranges just seem to get more and more compressed. The EUR/USD, which in my opinion needs to keep moving up and down to keep the markets moving, was caught in a 30 pip trading range for many days.\r\n\r\nWhat does this tell me?\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>Right or wrong; if the most liquid pair in the FX market is not moving, liquidity is probably poor. I know there can be other technical reasons but this situation where the EUR/USD had only 30 pip movements for two/three days, is as scarce as crap out of a rocking horse! I am 100% on the liquidity reason and I can find no other explanation.</li>\r\n 	<li>If liquidity is poor do not get too caught up in trading. DO NOT over trade and if you have to enter a trade or you are suckered in make sure that your position sizes are small.</li>\r\n 	<li>The reality is; these are times to get a grip and exercise TRADING DISCIPLINE.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nFrom a trading perspective, the PREMIUM SERVICE trading results continued upwards. Barring a catastrophe over the long weekend, the PREMIUM SERVICE trading accounts are ahead of the 2016 target which is fantastic considering the negative position at the end of February this year.\r\n\r\nNo trader can be complacent in these times, hence the title of this weeks blog. I feel so strongly about this subject, that it would normally only appear in the “subscribers only” section. However, because we are entering the summer and the silly season with several geopolitical events, it is in my opinion, a great time to refresh the basics for everyone. As always, I keep it simple and without complication so that regardless of trading experience it is easy to follow…. hopefully!\r\n\r\nShifting gears…\r\n\r\nFREE PREMIUM SERVICE subscriptions, just to remind you; you could be the next winner of a free PREMIUM SERVICE subscription; if you subscribe to receive this free blog via my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nYou are automatically entered into a free monthly draw, once you’ve subscribed. Each month during 2016 one lucky blog subscriber will receive a free subscription to the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\nAs I am the UK and IRELAND in June and early July the next winner will enjoy a subscription until my summer break in mid July. The next draw after the one in a couple of weeks will then be early September after my summer break from blogging.\r\n\r\nMy plans for the short tour of the UK and IRELAND (see chart below with itinerary) are intensifying a lot more now. My power point software skills are being pushed to the limits, never mind the continual refining of the presentation content.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/TOUR-DATES-2016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7597\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/TOUR-DATES-2016.png\" alt=\"TOUR DATES 2016\" width=\"630\" height=\"397\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nI hope to meet and greet many traders on this trip and I am really excited about the presentations that are scheduled. Please come along if you can and bring friends who you think may be interested in starting to trade the Forex market.\r\n\r\nSpaces are limited so to register for an event, please go to my landing page on <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> and click on LIVE EVENTS. The drop down menu there has all the information that you will require, plus the email address to use to register at to reserve a space. I would place it here but I would end up getting thousand’s of SPAM emails, which I want to avoid.\r\n\r\nPlease note that because of the TOUR, copies of this blog will have a revised format on the following dates: -\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">18<sup>th</sup> June 2016\r\n25<sup>th</sup> June 2016\r\n2<sup>nd</sup> July 2016</p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber, fee based trade set-up option for Forex traders regardless of experience or background. I provide traders suggested trades, and some market commentary related to open trades or factors within the overall market that have my interest.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and the various trade styles plus how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nAdditional information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE you will require a credit card.\r\n\r\n<u>PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION COSTS:</u>\r\n\r\nDetails of features and benefits of a PREMIUM SERVICE subscription can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the dropdown tab at the top of the page entitled HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE OF THE PREMIUM SERVICE. To subscribe follow the SUBSCRIBE HERE tab.\r\n\r\nPREMIUM SERVICE subscription costs are as follows: -\r\n\r\nCAD$240.00 - 4 weeks (1 month)\r\nCAD$500.00 - 10 weeks (3 months)\r\nCAD$750.00 - 20 weeks (6 months)\r\nCAD$1,250.00 - 40 weeks (12 months)\r\n<u>PLUS</u>: Existing PLATINUM MEMBERS (annual subscribers) can re-subscribe for a further 12 months for CAD$1,000.00\r\n\r\nI work for about 50 weeks a year. Subscriptions are based on 40 published blogs of the WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU per year. For the remaining 10 weeks, I am around tweeting, posting and managing existing LIVE trades, although my market activity is reduced.\r\n\r\n<u>PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE THIS MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\nNET PIPS THIS MONTH SO FAR:            +2,025\r\nNET PIPS THIS YEAR SO FAR:                +5,839\r\n\r\nNET PIPS 2015:       +10,686\r\nNET PIPS 2014:       +11,209\r\n(I trade basically for 10 months a year. I do not trade from mid July through early September or mid December through early January).\r\n\r\nIf you want more data or detail about the performance and the tabs on my website landing page do not answer your questions, contact me directly and I will supply the trading data you require. There are NO secrets. There are many, many spreadsheets detailing performance trade by trade and by trade and by trading style, way too many to place in this blog. If you are interested in the PREMIUM SERVICE and want more information, all you have to do is ask.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>LAST WEEK’S NEWS – MY THOUGHTS:</strong>\r\n\r\nFrom my perspective, last week was a little boring and somewhat light on news events to move the market. Maybe that is one reason why the most liquid pair in the FX market, the EUR/USD, spent a lot of time in a 30-40 pip trading range. Only on Friday last week after Janet Yellen spoke in Harvard did we see a knicker-gripping 90 pip trading range. When I noticed this move I had to hold my head back to stop the blood from my nose and grab a few tissues. Even at my age a sudden shock causes a nosebleed.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nThe big news of the week was the BOC interest rate announcement. I was secretly hoping for a rate cut, well hardly secretly; I think I put that thought out on twitter. Not that that matters too much, my disillusionment with twitter continues. All the arse licking at the end of each week with thanks to all my #FF’s stuff is making me vomit. Is the world just full of insecure people who cannot get by without constant reassurance? To me it is bloody ridiculous; my wife sells Personal Development programs and business opportunities for individuals and corporate bodies. If she ever tells me that she thinks that her marketplace is shrinking, all I have to do is show her a couple hours of tweets of twitter. Talk about an unlimited marketplace full of opportunities.\r\n\r\nGetting back on track…\r\n\r\nThe BOC held rates unchanged. I have to live with this decision. However, Canada is a small country population wise, huge geographically and it has problems looming in the not too distant future. I think that its unfair that the USD/CAD and cross rates are treated as proxy’s for oil, but it is what it is. The wild fires in Fort McMurray will create problems for the broader Canadian economy. We are talking pure devastation and the fact that the BOC once again under Stephen Poloz believes all is OK, baffles me.\r\n\r\nSomeone has to pay to make good. That will be the taxpayer and that will bring to halt any bullishness that Poloz and his chaps see in the economy.\r\n\r\nThe wildfires could place the Canadian economy back in a technical recession very quickly. Plus, when you add to this, the fact that Oil cannot maintain prices above $50, it\'s a double whammy. It\'s a triple whammy when those who have been laid off in the oil sands areas of late are no longer available to re-hire. They tend to be country transient workers; at least I am led to believe the vast majority are.\r\n\r\nThere will be interest rate cuts to ZIRP.\r\n\r\nBefore the Fort McMurray wildfires, the BOC were concerned with some poor economic data that was making them look at the possibility of QE (Quantitative Easing) and negative interest rates. By fluke, the data leveled out and stimulus was placed on the back burner… watch this space moving forward.\r\n\r\nI am critical of central banks that play behind the curve, or, simply have no fecking idea what a curve is or what they should be looking for.\r\n\r\nThe BOC has at times maintained a “Head in the Sand” approach, even when the Canadian economy was in technical recession last year, the BOC were still talking about the garden being rosy. They hoped that Government policy from the new Justin Trudeau Prime Minister’s budget would “kick start” any lagers. In my opinion, Central Bank monetary policy should NOT be left to hope!!\r\n\r\nTime will tell.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>WHAT’S BIG ON MY MIND:</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>THE NIGHTMARE SCENARIO…PART TWO</strong>\r\n(With all the geopolitical events on the horizon, I want to revisit the basic TRADING RISK to your broker account)</p>\r\n<em>“I trade, I blog and do my very best to provide my subscribers with trade set-ups to make them and myself a nice little income. I am now using the phrase “STEADY EDDIE” a lot as I believe it’s all about consistency and letting the trades come to you. There is little point trading for trade’s sake. It’s not my style and I believe that one should stick to one’s strengths rather than have weaknesses exposed”.</em>\r\n\r\nThe above was my opening paragraph for this section last week.\r\n\r\nI want to follow on from the points I raised last week but attack it from a trading perspective. To my subscribers and in this blog for the past three years I have been banging the same drum over and over again with regards to: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>RISK MANAGEMENT</li>\r\n 	<li>MONEY MANAGEMENT</li>\r\n 	<li>TRADING DISCIPLINES</li>\r\n 	<li>TRADE PLANS</li>\r\n 	<li>POSITION SIZING</li>\r\n 	<li>TRADING PSYCHOLOGY</li>\r\n 	<li>KEYS TO TRADING LONGEVITY</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nI feel even more strongly about these matters as we enter the summer doldrums of June, July and August. From now on it will be known as the “Silly Season”.\r\n\r\nWe have the following to consider from now through the “Silly Season” and beyond. It is not just a single issue, we have a potential domino effect: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>DONALD TRUMP – THE U.S. PRESIDENTIAL CIRCUS</li>\r\n 	<li>HOUSING BUBBLES</li>\r\n 	<li>BREXIT and UK FRAGILITY</li>\r\n 	<li>EUROZONE IMPLOSION / CONTAGION EFFECT</li>\r\n 	<li>JAPAN ECONOMIC / POLITICAL FAILURE</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nBack to my main point…\r\n\r\nWhen you become a Forex Trader, you move to the dark side. There are some extreme weirdo’s that trade Forex and there are some really nice people. The one thing in common, is that most of us do not get enough sleep and we trade in extremes at times. Some, if not all of this, is self-inflicted.\r\n\r\nLike the markets we too are at times driven by FEAR and GREED. This manifests itself by us NOT sticking to our TRADE PLANS and exposing ourselves to too much RISK.\r\n\r\nGiven the events on the horizon, I believe that now is the time to revisit RISK from the perspective of POSITION SIZING.\r\n\r\nHow much should you risk per trade?\r\n\r\nThere are many schools of thought and reference points on how to answer this question. My peer group has different opinions. It is a personal decision how much RISK; as in how much of a loss you will tolerate. This you have to manage yourself.\r\n\r\nI can tell you that after 9 years of trading my views have altered slightly. I used to say 2% per trade. Then I moved to 3.5% per trade. Now I have settled at 3%, and on occasions I have stretched to 3.5% on the more liquid USD majors as a maximum. But in 95% of occasions my position sizes reflect that my eventual RISK TOLERANCE level in any one trade is 3%. I play with position sizes and STOP LOSS positions to manage this.\r\n\r\nI would say that if you are new to Forex Trading regardless of your financial circumstances, I would RISK less than 2% until you grasp the market moves better.\r\n\r\nLosses are capital losses. CAPITAL PRESERVATION is critical to LONGEVITY in Forex Trading. You must think longer-term. Trading Forex, despite the spam email you receive in your inboxes is NOT a get rich quick opportunity. These emails about automatic robot systems are bullsh*t. If these robots were that good do you not think that the banks would be out there buying them all up and sacking thousand’s of staff?\r\n\r\nIn the chart below, I have highlighted the difference between risking 3% of your capital in a trade than 10%.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/3v10-POSITION-SIZING-28052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7963\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/3v10-POSITION-SIZING-28052016.png\" alt=\"3%v10% POSITION SIZING 28052016\" width=\"377\" height=\"423\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nFirstly, I hope that you can see that there is a huge difference between risking 3% of your account than 10% of your account per trade.\r\n\r\nOne reason why so many traders fail with Forex, is that they either do NOT understand how to manage RISK, which, makes them pretty much gamblers.\r\n\r\nI stopped low price entry-level subscriptions to the PREMIUM SERVICE because I was getting mostly time consuming gamblers who only wanted 15 trades a day, regardless of quality. That is NOT me and it is NOT my style.\r\n\r\nBack to the chart above…\r\n\r\nIf you started with an account of $25,000.00 and you had a losing streak of 14 trades in a row, your account would now only have $5,719.20 left, if you risked 10% per trade.\r\n\r\nYou would have lost 77% of your account.\r\n\r\nRisking 3% of your account, you still would have lost $8,679.09 yielding a loss of 34% in comparison to losing 77% of your account balance by risking 10%\r\n\r\nThese examples are extremes; one would not expect to go on a losing streak of 14 trades in a row, but I hope the point is made even if you looked at the chart from say a 4 trade-losing streak.\r\n\r\nThe purpose of the chart I hope shows that unless traders trade with POSITION SIZING and RISK MANAGEMENT controls in place, the hope of PRESERVING CAPITAL which gives you LONGEVITY on trading is out of the window. That is of course unless you have one of those unique money trees in your garden or unlimited funds that enable you to keep re-financing your broker account. If you have either of these may I suggest Vegas baby…that\'s the place to go!!\r\n\r\nNot sure about you, but the thoughts of losing almost 80% of my accounts, does not sit well with me at all.\r\n\r\nAs we enter the “Silly Season” it is paramount that regardless of trading experience we always observe our core principles and disciplines. It is much harder to replace losses when they have gone, it really does require discipline, I know, I have been there.\r\n\r\nWe should also bear in mind as we go into “Silly Season” that liquidity will be less and therefore we can have dramatic moves at times. If you trade throughout the year you will need your wits about you all the time.\r\n\r\nAbout a month ago I produced an excel spreadsheet for my subscribers, based upon my POSITION SIZES for the “Silly Season”. I grouped trading pairs together and charted what my position sizes would be from an entry level through to 100%. This chart was based in most cases on halving my usual position sizes. This is how seriously I will be treating what is basically the remainder of 2016.\r\n\r\n(FOR PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS – the section will be copied and added as a PDF to the EDUCATION section of the PREMIUM SERVICE website)\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBER EXCLUSIVE AREA:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>THE PREMIUM SERVICE – TRADING REVIEW:\r\n</strong>(This section can cover a multitude of points / facts etc. Basically it’s a 360-degree review, which I think should interest subscribers):\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nTRADING REVIEW:\r\n\r\nOverall, I am very happy to have a pip total at almost 6,000 after 5 months of 2016, considering the issues earlier in the year.\r\n\r\nI had a SKYPE conversation / meeting with my peer group last Thursday to discuss the market and basically the “Silly Season” items on the horizon.\r\n\r\nThe consensus is that there will be poor liquidity throughout most of June, July and August and probably until mid September. Our ex banker in the group was also talking about some brokers that are being squeezed at the moment as the bigger banks are not as active themselves in the market. That could develop over the summer.\r\n\r\nNothing ground breaking was discussed, just a consensus for caution really moving forward and to be ready for fireworks. They believe my “Doom and Gloom” to be a little excessive, I defended myself… we will soon see if I am too negative on matters!!\r\n\r\nI am timed via my marketing plan to start telephoning my brokers this week for a review chat on all things Forex. I will soon know if business is down or up for brokers if I can hear desperation in their voices or the clanking of Gin bottles in the background!!\r\n\r\nWith regards to specific trading policies, I did a huge clear-out last week to re-load again. At the time I always think it\'s a good idea and then shortly after I give myself a good kicking for doing it. They jury is still out on whether I was too hasty or not. However, I always come back to the fact that its never a bad time to bank profits!!\r\n\r\nThis week we have NFP once again. So I will be light going into the data release on Friday. We also have Draghi and an ECB Press Conference plus Aussie GDP and Retail sales and Canadian GDP and Trade balance. We need to be patient this week.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nSUBSCRIPTIONS:\r\n\r\nPricing options are now in CAD$.\r\n\r\nSILVER membership has been removed; being honest, I know a few of you have traded up, but as I said all SILVER memberships really attracted were gamblers, who were time consuming, just looking for multiple trades per day.\r\n\r\nFrankly I want traders with me who are interested in the long-term, with steady income requirements that can supplement existing household income by being a part-time trader or those looking to develop a full-time income but being based upon longer-term horizons.\r\n\r\nThose of you who sign up, or have signed up for annual subscriptions have been raised to PLATINUM SUBSCRIBERS (the highest level of subscription). The initial benefit of this is that annual subscribers who renew for a further 12 months will receive a discount from the published price option. Currently it is CAD$1,250.00 to initially subscribe for 12 months with renewals for an annual PLATINUM subscriber at CAD$1,000.00.\r\n\r\n<strong>CHARTS THAT ARE ATTRACTING MY INTEREST:</strong>\r\n\r\nOnly the USD/SEK this week has my eye. With the Bank Holiday on Monday a normal review will take place on Monday evening and I will alert via Twitter at that stage if something is jumping off the page at me.\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDSEK-DAILY-28052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7979\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDSEK-DAILY-28052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"USDSEK DAILY 28052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>TRADES REVIEW:</strong>\r\n\r\nAs requested by a few of you I have re-instated the trade by trade excel summary sheets.\r\n\r\nThe excel spreadsheets below details current LIVE and pending LIMIT ORDER trades: -\r\n\r\n<strong><a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/LIVE-TRADES-28052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7962\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/LIVE-TRADES-28052016.png\" alt=\"LIVE TRADES 28052016\" width=\"805\" height=\"588\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/LIMIT-ORDERS-28052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7961\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/LIMIT-ORDERS-28052016.png\" alt=\"LIMIT ORDERS 28052016\" width=\"669\" height=\"458\" /></a> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> COMING UP THIS WEEK:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>THIS WEEK’S FOREX NEWS THAT INTERESTS ME:</u>\r\n\r\n(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market other than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to <a href=\"http://www.forexfactory.com\">www.forexfactory.com</a> and <a href=\"http://www.tradingeconomics.com\">www.tradingeconomics.com</a> for a more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).\r\n\r\nSUNDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: CAD – GDP.\r\nTUESDAY: USD – Consumer Confidence.\r\nTUESDAY: CNY – PMi.\r\nTUESDAY: AUD – GDP.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: NZD – Annual Budget Release.\r\nWEDNESDAY: AUD – Retail Sales and Trade Balance.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: EUR – ECB Interest Rate and Press Conference.\r\nTHURSDAY: USD – ADP Non-Farm Payrolls.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: USD – Non-Farm Payrolls / Average Hourly Earnings.\r\nFRIDAY: CAD – Trade Balance.\r\n\r\n<u>THE USD MAJORS – MY THOUGHTS (A REVIEW): </u>\r\n\r\n(In this section I have as usual kept my charts as minimalist as possible. With regards to charting in my opinion less is more!! I hope that they are clear. All readers regardless of level of experience should be able to follow my thoughts from my comments to the levels on the charts with ease)\r\n\r\nMy comments are contained on the charts.\r\n\r\nEUR/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.1110\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/EURUSD-DAILY-28052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7972\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/EURUSD-DAILY-28052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"EURUSD DAILY 28052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nGBP/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.4617\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/GBPUSD-DAILY-28052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7973\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/GBPUSD-DAILY-28052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"GBPUSD DAILY 28052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nAUD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.7182\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/AUDUSD-D-28052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7971\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/AUDUSD-D-28052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"AUDUSD D 28052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nNZD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.6690\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/NZDUSD-DAILY-28052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7974\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/NZDUSD-DAILY-28052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"NZDUSD DAILY 28052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.3028\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDCAD-DAILY-28052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7975\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDCAD-DAILY-28052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"USDCAD DAILY 28052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF - Weekly Closing Price: 0.946\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDCHF-DAILY-208502016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7976\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDCHF-DAILY-208502016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"USDCHF DAILY 208502016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY - Weekly Closing Price: 110.22\r\n\r\n<u><a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDJPY-DAILY-28052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7977\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDJPY-DAILY-28052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"USDJPY DAILY 28052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a></u>\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u>MY CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nAnother Non-Farm Payroll week has come around. This time Mario Draghi is also front and centre with an ECB Press Conference.\r\n\r\nBoth items are big news events as the FED is ready to raise rates and those people saying that June is off the table are not applying the FED thinking. I believe they want a couple of additional rate hikes in the bag before the U.S. Presidential Election just in case the “DONALD” is elected. I think the FOMC will be saying forget about the BREXIT to a large extent as we have a bigger worry to consider in our own country.\r\n\r\nFED speak has been broadly hawkish including Janet Yellen herself last Friday when speaking in Harvard. Take nothing for granted with the FED. They are still on a divergent monetary policy.\r\n\r\nDraghi will be pressed on the leaked EUROZONE PLAN B for the UK BREXIT referendum. Lets be honest it must at least be PLAN P by now as the EUROZONE find it hard to agree on anything. Frankly, how PLAN P looks will be anyone’s guess. As I understand it, it’s centered on the CONTAGION EFFECT that a BREXIT could start in the EUROZONE.\r\n\r\nI am sure that Mario Draghi will not be the architect of such a PLAN P, but he must have been privy to its content, one would have thought.\r\n\r\nLets see if he confirms or denies such a document exists. If it does exist, it must be easy to identify, as it will be a document super glued to coke cans ready to be kicked down the open road outside of Brussels.\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nTake care,\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nDATE: 28th May 2016\r\nBLOG VERSION: #104 PREMIUM SERVICE VERSION\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','THE NIGHTMARE SCENARIO…PART TWO','','publish','open','closed','','nightmare-scenariopart-two','','','2016-05-28 11:57:13','2016-05-28 16:57:13','',0,'http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?post_type=member_posts&#038;p=7978',0,'member_posts','',0),(7979,1,'2016-05-28 11:50:18','2016-05-28 16:50:18','','USDSEK DAILY 28052016','','inherit','open','closed','','usdsek-daily-28052016','','','2016-05-28 11:55:10','2016-05-28 16:55:10','',7978,'http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDSEK-DAILY-28052016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(7980,1,'2016-05-28 11:54:11','2016-05-28 16:54:11','<p style=\"text-align: center;\">THE NIGHTMARE SCENARIO…PART TWO\r\n(With all the geopolitical events on the horizon, I want to revisit the basic TRADING RISK to your broker account)</p>\r\n\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong> INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThe “chop fest” continued last week, but in addition the trading ranges just seem to get more and more compressed. The EUR/USD, which in my opinion needs to keep moving up and down to keep the markets moving, was caught in a 30 pip trading range for many days.\r\n\r\nWhat does this tell me?\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>Right or wrong; if the most liquid pair in the FX market is not moving, liquidity is probably poor. I know there can be other technical reasons but this situation where the EUR/USD had only 30 pip movements for two/three days, is as scarce as crap out of a rocking horse! I am 100% on the liquidity reason and I can find no other explanation.</li>\r\n 	<li>If liquidity is poor do not get too caught up in trading. DO NOT overtrade and if you have to enter a trade or you are suckered in make sure that your position sizes are small.</li>\r\n 	<li>The reality is; these are times to get a grip and exercise TRADING DISCIPLINE.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nFrom a trading perspective, the PREMIUM SERVICE trading results continued upwards. Barring a catastrophe over the long weekend, the PREMIUM SERVICE trading accounts are ahead of the 2016 target which is fantastic considering the negative position at the end of February this year.\r\n\r\nNo trader can be complacent in these times, hence the title of this weeks blog. I feel so strongly about this subject, that it would normally only appear in the “subscribers only” section. However, because we are entering the summer and the silly season with several geopolitical events, it is in my opinion, a great time to refresh the basics for everyone. As always, I keep it simple and without complication so that regardless of trading experience it is easy to follow…. hopefully!\r\n\r\nShifting gears…\r\n\r\nFREE PREMIUM SERVICE subscriptions, just to remind you; you could be the next winner of a free PREMIUM SERVICE subscription; if you subscribe to receive this free blog via my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nYou are automatically entered into a free monthly draw, once you’ve subscribed. Each month during 2016 one lucky blog subscriber will receive a free subscription to the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\nAs I am the UK and IRELAND in June and early July the next winner will enjoy a subscription until my summer break in mid July. The next draw after the one in a couple of weeks will then be early September after my summer break from blogging.\r\n\r\nMy plans for the short tour of the UK and IRELAND (see chart below with itinerary) are intensifying a lot more now. My power point software skills are being pushed to the limits, never mind the continual refining of the presentation content.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/TOUR-DATES-2016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7597\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/TOUR-DATES-2016.png\" alt=\"TOUR DATES 2016\" width=\"630\" height=\"397\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nI hope to meet and greet many traders on this trip and I am really excited about the presentations that are scheduled. Please come along if you can and bring friends who you think may be interested in starting to trade the Forex market.\r\n\r\nSpaces are limited so to register for an event, please go to my landing page on <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> and click on LIVE EVENTS. The drop down menu there has all the information that you will require, plus the email address to use to register at to reserve a space. I would place it here but I would end up getting thousand’s of SPAM emails, which I want to avoid.\r\n\r\nPlease note that because of the TOUR, copies of this blog will have a revised format on the following dates: -\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">18<sup>th</sup> June 2016\r\n25<sup>th</sup> June 2016\r\n2<sup>nd</sup> July 2016</p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber, fee based trade set-up option for Forex traders regardless of experience or background. I provide traders suggested trades, and some market commentary related to open trades or factors within the overall market that have my interest.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and the various trade styles plus how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nAdditional information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE you will require a credit card.\r\n\r\n<u>PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION COSTS:</u>\r\n\r\nDetails of features and benefits of a PREMIUM SERVICE subscription can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the dropdown tab at the top of the page entitled HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE OF THE PREMIUM SERVICE. To subscribe follow the SUBSCRIBE HERE tab.\r\n\r\nPREMIUM SERVICE subscription costs are as follows: -\r\n\r\nCAD$240.00 - 4 weeks (1 month)\r\nCAD$500.00 - 10 weeks (3 months)\r\nCAD$750.00 - 20 weeks (6 months)\r\nCAD$1,250.00 - 40 weeks (12 months)\r\n<u>PLUS</u>: Existing PLATINUM MEMBERS (annual subscribers) can re-subscribe for a further 12 months for CAD$1,000.00\r\n\r\nI work for about 50 weeks a year. Subscriptions are based on 40 published blogs of the WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU per year. For the remaining 10 weeks, I am around tweeting, posting and managing existing LIVE trades, although my market activity is reduced.\r\n\r\n<u>PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE THIS MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\nNET PIPS THIS MONTH SO FAR:            +2,025\r\nNET PIPS THIS YEAR SO FAR:                +5,839\r\n\r\nNET PIPS 2015:       +10,686\r\nNET PIPS 2014:       +11,209\r\n(I trade basically for 10 months a year. I do not trade from mid July through early September or mid December through early January).\r\n\r\nIf you want more data or detail about the performance and the tabs on my website landing page do not answer your questions, contact me directly and I will supply the trading data you require. There are NO secrets. There are many, many spreadsheets detailing performance trade by trade and by trade and by trading style, way too many to place in this blog. If you are interested in the PREMIUM SERVICE and want more information, all you have to do is ask.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>LAST WEEK’S NEWS – MY THOUGHTS:</strong>\r\n\r\nFrom my perspective, last week was a little boring and somewhat light on news events to move the market. Maybe that is one reason why the most liquid pair in the FX market, the EUR/USD, spent a lot of time in a 30-40 pip trading range. Only on Friday last week after Janet Yellen spoke in Harvard did we see a knicker-gripping 90 pip trading range. When I noticed this move I had to hold my head back to stop the blood from my nose and grab a few tissues. Even at my age a sudden shock causes a nosebleed.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nThe big news of the week was the BOC interest rate announcement. I was secretly hoping for a rate cut, well hardly secretly; I think I put that thought out on twitter. Not that that matters too much, my disillusionment with twitter continues. All the arse licking at the end of each week with thanks to all my #FF’s stuff is making me vomit. Is the world just full of insecure people who cannot get by without constant reassurance? To me it is bloody ridiculous; my wife sells Personal Development programs and business opportunities for individuals and corporate bodies. If she ever tells me that she thinks that her marketplace is shrinking, all I have to do is show her a couple hours of tweets of twitter. Talk about an unlimited marketplace full of opportunities.\r\n\r\nGetting back on track…\r\n\r\nThe BOC held rates unchanged. I have to live with this decision. However, Canada is a small country population wise, huge geographically and it has problems looming in the not too distant future. I think that its unfair that the USD/CAD and cross rates are treated as proxy’s for oil, but it is what it is. The wild fires in Fort McMurray will create problems for the broader Canadian economy. We are talking pure devastation and the fact that the BOC once again under Stephen Poloz believes all is OK, baffles me.\r\n\r\nSomeone has to pay to make good. That will be the taxpayer and that will bring to halt any bullishness that Poloz and his chaps see in the economy.\r\n\r\nThe wildfires could place the Canadian economy back in a technical recession very quickly. Plus, when you add to this, the fact that Oil cannot maintain prices above $50, it\'s a double whammy. It\'s a triple whammy when those who have been laid off in the oil sands areas of late are no longer available to re-hire. They tend to be country transient workers; at least I am led to believe the vast majority are.\r\n\r\nThere will be interest rate cuts to ZIRP.\r\n\r\nBefore the Fort McMurray wildfires, the BOC were concerned with some poor economic data that was making them look at the possibility of QE (Quantitative Easing) and negative interest rates. By fluke, the data leveled out and stimulus was placed on the back burner… watch this space moving forward.\r\n\r\nI am critical of central banks that play behind the curve, or, simply have no fecking idea what a curve is or what they should be looking for.\r\n\r\nThe BOC has at times maintained a “Head in the Sand” approach, even when the Canadian economy was in technical recession last year, the BOC were still talking about the garden being rosy. They hoped that Government policy from the new Justin Trudeau Prime Minister’s budget would “kick start” any lagers. In my opinion, Central Bank monetary policy should NOT be left to hope!!\r\n\r\nTime will tell.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>WHAT’S BIG ON MY MIND:</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>THE NIGHTMARE SCENARIO…PART TWO</strong>\r\n<strong> (With all the geopolitical events on the horizon, I want to revisit the basic TRADING RISK to your broker account)</strong></p>\r\n<em>“I trade, I blog and do my very best to provide my subscribers with trade set-ups to make them and myself a nice little income. I am now using the phrase “STEADY EDDIE” a lot as I believe it’s all about consistency and letting the trades come to you. There is little point trading for trade’s sake. It’s not my style and I believe that one should stick to one’s strengths rather than have weaknesses exposed”.</em>\r\n\r\nThe above was my opening paragraph for this section last week.\r\n\r\nI want to follow on from the points I raised last week but attack it from a trading perspective. To my subscribers and in this blog for the past three years I have been banging the same drum over and over again with regards to: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>RISK MANAGEMENT</li>\r\n 	<li>MONEY MANAGEMENT</li>\r\n 	<li>TRADING DISCIPLINES</li>\r\n 	<li>TRADE PLANS</li>\r\n 	<li>POSITION SIZING</li>\r\n 	<li>TRADING PSYCHOLOGY</li>\r\n 	<li>KEYS TO TRADING LONGEVITY</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nI feel even more strongly about these matters as we enter the summer doldrums of June, July and August. From now on it will be known as the “Silly Season”.\r\n\r\nWe have the following to consider from now through the “Silly Season” and beyond. It is not just a single issue, we have a potential domino effect: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>DONALD TRUMP – THE U.S. PRESIDENTIAL CIRCUS</li>\r\n 	<li>HOUSING BUBBLES</li>\r\n 	<li>BREXIT and UK FRAGILITY</li>\r\n 	<li>EUROZONE IMPLOSION / CONTAGION EFFECT</li>\r\n 	<li>JAPAN ECONOMIC / POLITICAL FAILURE</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nBack to my main point…\r\n\r\nWhen you become a Forex Trader, you move to the dark side. There are some extreme weirdo’s that trade Forex and there are some really nice people. The one thing in common, is that most of us do not get enough sleep and we trade in extremes at times. Some, if not all of this, is self-inflicted.\r\n\r\nLike the markets we too are at times driven by FEAR and GREED. This manifests itself by us NOT sticking to our TRADE PLANS and exposing ourselves to too much RISK.\r\n\r\nGiven the events on the horizon, I believe that now is the time to revisit RISK from the perspective of POSITION SIZING.\r\n\r\nHow much should you risk per trade?\r\n\r\nThere are many schools of thought and reference points on how to answer this question. My peer group has different opinions. It is a personal decision how much RISK; as in how much of a loss you will tolerate. This you have to manage yourself.\r\n\r\nI can tell you that after 9 years of trading my views have altered slightly. I used to say 2% per trade. Then I moved to 3.5% per trade. Now I have settled at 3%, and on occasions I have stretched to 3.5% on the more liquid USD majors as a maximum. But in 95% of occasions my position sizes reflect that my eventual RISK TOLERANCE level in any one trade is 3%. I play with position sizes and STOP LOSS positions to manage this.\r\n\r\nI would say that if you are new to Forex Trading regardless of your financial circumstances, I would RISK less than 2% until you grasp the market moves better.\r\n\r\nLosses are capital losses. CAPITAL PRESERVATION is critical to LONGEVITY in Forex Trading. You must think longer-term. Trading Forex, despite the spam email you receive in your inboxes is NOT a get rich quick opportunity. These emails about automatic robot systems are bullsh*t. If these robots were that good do you not think that the banks would be out there buying them all up and sacking thousand’s of staff?\r\n\r\nIn the chart below, I have highlighted the difference between risking 3% of your capital in a trade than 10%.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/3v10-POSITION-SIZING-28052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7963\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/3v10-POSITION-SIZING-28052016.png\" alt=\"3%v10% POSITION SIZING 28052016\" width=\"377\" height=\"423\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nFirstly, I hope that you can see that there is a huge difference between risking 3% of your account than 10% of your account per trade.\r\n\r\nOne reason why so many traders fail with Forex, is that they either do NOT understand how to manage RISK, which, makes them pretty much gamblers.\r\n\r\nI stopped low price entry-level subscriptions to the PREMIUM SERVICE because I was getting mostly time consuming gamblers who only wanted 15 trades a day, regardless of quality. That is NOT me and it is NOT my style.\r\n\r\nBack to the chart above…\r\n\r\nIf you started with an account of $25,000.00 and you had a losing streak of 14 trades in a row, your account would now only have $5,719.20 left, if you risked 10% per trade.\r\n\r\nYou would have lost 77% of your account.\r\n\r\nRisking 3% of your account, you still would have lost $8,679.09 yielding a loss of 34% in comparison to losing 77% of your account balance by risking 10%\r\n\r\nThese examples are extremes; one would not expect to go on a losing streak of 14 trades in a row, but I hope the point is made even if you looked at the chart from say a 4 trade-losing streak.\r\n\r\nThe purpose of the chart I hope shows that unless traders trade with POSITION SIZING and RISK MANAGEMENT controls in place, the hope of PRESERVING CAPITAL which gives you LONGEVITY on trading is out of the window. That is of course unless you have one of those unique money trees in your garden or unlimited funds that enable you to keep re-financing your broker account. If you have either of these may I suggest Vegas baby…that\'s the place to go!!\r\n\r\nNot sure about you, but the thoughts of losing almost 80% of my accounts, does not sit well with me at all.\r\n\r\nAs we enter the “Silly Season” it is paramount that regardless of trading experience we always observe our core principles and disciplines. It is much harder to replace losses when they have gone, it really does require discipline, I know, I have been there.\r\n\r\nWe should also bear in mind as we go into “Silly Season” that liquidity will be less and therefore we can have dramatic moves at times. If you trade throughout the year you will need your wits about you all the time.\r\n\r\nAbout a month ago I produced an excel spreadsheet for my subscribers, based upon my POSITION SIZES for the “Silly Season”. I grouped trading pairs together and charted what my position sizes would be from an entry level through to 100%. This chart was based in most cases on halving my usual position sizes. This is how seriously I will be treating what is basically the remainder of 2016.\r\n\r\n(FOR PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS – the section will be copied and added as a PDF to the EDUCATION section of the PREMIUM SERVICE website)\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBER EXCLUSIVE AREA:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>THE PREMIUM SERVICE – TRADING REVIEW:\r\n</strong>(This section can cover a multitude of points / facts etc. Basically it’s a 360-degree review, which I think should interest subscribers):\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nTRADING REVIEW:\r\n\r\nOverall, I am very happy to have a pip total at almost 6,000 after 5 months of 2016, considering the issues earlier in the year.\r\n\r\nI had a SKYPE conversation / meeting with my peer group last Thursday to discuss the market and basically the “Silly Season” items on the horizon.\r\n\r\nThe consensus is that there will be poor liquidity throughout most of June, July and August and probably until mid September. Our ex banker in the group was also talking about some brokers that are being squeezed at the moment as the bigger banks are not as active themselves in the market. That could develop over the summer.\r\n\r\nNothing ground breaking was discussed, just a consensus for caution really moving forward and to be ready for fireworks. They believe my “Doom and Gloom” to be a little excessive, I defended myself… we will soon see if I am too negative on matters!!\r\n\r\nI am timed via my marketing plan to start telephoning my brokers this week for a review chat on all things Forex. I will soon know if business is down or up for brokers if I can hear desperation in their voices or the clanking of Gin bottles in the background!!\r\n\r\nWith regards to specific trading policies, I did a huge clear-out last week to re-load again. At the time I always think it\'s a good idea and then shortly after I give myself a good kicking for doing it. They jury is still out on whether I was too hasty or not. However, I always come back to the fact that its never a bad time to bank profits!!\r\n\r\nThis week we have NFP once again. So I will be light going into the data release on Friday. We also have Draghi and an ECB Press Conference plus Aussie GDP and Retail sales and Canadian GDP and Trade balance. We need to be patient this week.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nSUBSCRIPTIONS:\r\n\r\nPricing options are now in CAD$.\r\n\r\nSILVER membership has been removed; being honest, I know a few of you have traded up, but as I said all SILVER memberships really attracted were gamblers, who were time consuming, just looking for multiple trades per day.\r\n\r\nFrankly I want traders with me who are interested in the long-term, with steady income requirements that can supplement existing household income by being a part-time trader or those looking to develop a full-time income but being based upon longer-term horizons.\r\n\r\nThose of you who sign up, or have signed up for annual subscriptions have been raised to PLATINUM SUBSCRIBERS (the highest level of subscription). The initial benefit of this is that annual subscribers who renew for a further 12 months will receive a discount from the published price option. Currently it is CAD$1,250.00 to initially subscribe for 12 months with renewals for an annual PLATINUM subscriber at CAD$1,000.00.\r\n\r\n<strong>CHARTS THAT ARE ATTRACTING MY INTEREST:</strong>\r\n\r\nOnly the USD/SEK this week has my eye. With the Bank Holiday on Monday a normal review will take place on Monday evening and I will alert via Twitter at that stage if something is jumping off the page at me.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>TRADES REVIEW:</strong>\r\n\r\nAs requested by a few of you I have re-instated the trade by trade excel summary sheets.\r\n\r\nThe excel spreadsheets below details current LIVE and pending LIMIT ORDER trades: -\r\n\r\n<strong><a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/LIVE-TRADES-28052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7962\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/LIVE-TRADES-28052016.png\" alt=\"LIVE TRADES 28052016\" width=\"805\" height=\"588\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/LIMIT-ORDERS-28052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7961\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/LIMIT-ORDERS-28052016.png\" alt=\"LIMIT ORDERS 28052016\" width=\"669\" height=\"458\" /></a> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> COMING UP THIS WEEK:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>THIS WEEK’S FOREX NEWS THAT INTERESTS ME:</u>\r\n\r\n(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market other than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to <a href=\"http://www.forexfactory.com\">www.forexfactory.com</a> and <a href=\"http://www.tradingeconomics.com\">www.tradingeconomics.com</a> for a more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).\r\n\r\nSUNDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: CAD – GDP.\r\nTUESDAY: USD – Consumer Confidence.\r\nTUESDAY: CNY – PMi.\r\nTUESDAY: AUD – GDP.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: NZD – Annual Budget Release.\r\nWEDNESDAY: AUD – Retail Sales and Trade Balance.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: EUR – ECB Interest Rate and Press Conference.\r\nTHURSDAY: USD – ADP Non-Farm Payrolls.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: USD – Non-Farm Payrolls / Average Hourly Earnings.\r\nFRIDAY: CAD – Trade Balance.\r\n\r\n<u>THE USD MAJORS – MY THOUGHTS (A REVIEW): </u>\r\n\r\n(In this section I have as usual kept my charts as minimalist as possible. With regards to charting in my opinion less is more!! I hope that they are clear. All readers regardless of level of experience should be able to follow my thoughts from my comments to the levels on the charts with ease)\r\n\r\nMy comments are contained on the charts.\r\n\r\nEUR/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.1110\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/EURUSD-DAILY-28052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7972\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/EURUSD-DAILY-28052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"EURUSD DAILY 28052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nGBP/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.4617\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/GBPUSD-DAILY-28052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7973\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/GBPUSD-DAILY-28052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"GBPUSD DAILY 28052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nAUD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.7182\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/AUDUSD-D-28052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7971\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/AUDUSD-D-28052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"AUDUSD D 28052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nNZD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.6690\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/NZDUSD-DAILY-28052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7974\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/NZDUSD-DAILY-28052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"NZDUSD DAILY 28052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.3028\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDCAD-DAILY-28052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7975\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDCAD-DAILY-28052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"USDCAD DAILY 28052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF - Weekly Closing Price: 0.946\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDCHF-DAILY-208502016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7976\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDCHF-DAILY-208502016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"USDCHF DAILY 208502016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY - Weekly Closing Price: 110.22\r\n\r\n<u><a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDJPY-DAILY-28052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7977\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDJPY-DAILY-28052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"USDJPY DAILY 28052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a></u>\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u>MY CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nAnother Non-Farm Payroll week has come around. This time Mario Draghi is also front and centre with an ECB Press Conference.\r\n\r\nBoth items are big news events as the FED is ready to raise rates and those people saying that June is off the table are not applying the FED thinking. I believe they want a couple of additional rate hikes in the bag before the U.S. Presidential Election just in case the “DONALD” is elected. I think the FOMC will be saying forget about the BREXIT to a large extent as we have a bigger worry to consider in our own country.\r\n\r\nFED speak has been broadly hawkish including Janet Yellen herself last Friday when speaking in Harvard. Take nothing for granted with the FED. They are still on a divergent monetary policy.\r\n\r\nDraghi will be pressed on the leaked EUROZONE PLAN B for the UK BREXIT referendum. Lets be honest it must at least be PLAN P by now as the EUROZONE find it hard to agree on anything. Frankly, how PLAN P looks will be anyone’s guess. As I understand it, it’s centered on the CONTAGION EFFECT that a BREXIT could start in the EUROZONE.\r\n\r\nI am sure that Mario Draghi will not be the architect of such a PLAN P, but he must have been privy to its content, one would have thought.\r\n\r\nLets see if he confirms or denies such a document exists. If it does exist, it must be easy to identify, as it will be a document super glued to coke cans ready to be kicked down the open road outside of Brussels.\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nTake care,\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nDATE: 28th May 2016\r\nBLOG VERSION: #104 PREMIUM SERVICE VERSION\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','THE NIGHTMARE SCENARIO…PART TWO','','inherit','closed','closed','','7978-revision-v1','','','2016-05-28 11:54:11','2016-05-28 16:54:11','',7978,'http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/7978-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(7925,1,'2016-05-21 07:50:52','2016-05-21 12:50:52','','AUDUSD D 21052016','','inherit','open','closed','','audusd-d-21052016','','','2016-05-21 10:31:47','2016-05-21 15:31:47','',7939,'http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/AUDUSD-D-21052016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(7926,1,'2016-05-21 07:50:57','2016-05-21 12:50:57','','EURUSD D 21052016','','inherit','open','closed','','eurusd-d-21052016','','','2016-05-21 10:31:29','2016-05-21 15:31:29','',7939,'http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/EURUSD-D-21052016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(7927,1,'2016-05-21 07:51:02','2016-05-21 12:51:02','','GBPUSD D 21052016','','inherit','open','closed','','gbpusd-d-21052016','','','2016-05-21 10:31:37','2016-05-21 15:31:37','',7939,'http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/GBPUSD-D-21052016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(7928,1,'2016-05-21 07:51:11','2016-05-21 12:51:11','','NZDUSD D 21052016','','inherit','open','closed','','nzdusd-d-21052016','','','2016-05-21 10:31:57','2016-05-21 15:31:57','',7939,'http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/NZDUSD-D-21052016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(7929,1,'2016-05-21 07:51:13','2016-05-21 12:51:13','','USDCAD D 21052016','','inherit','open','closed','','usdcad-d-21052016','','','2016-05-21 10:32:09','2016-05-21 15:32:09','',7939,'http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDCAD-D-21052016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(7937,1,'2016-05-21 10:03:27','2016-05-21 15:03:27','','USDCHF DAILY 21052016','','inherit','open','closed','','usdchf-daily-21052016','','','2016-05-21 10:32:24','2016-05-21 15:32:24','',7939,'http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDCHF-DAILY-21052016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(7931,1,'2016-05-21 07:51:16','2016-05-21 12:51:16','','USDJPY D 21052016','','inherit','open','closed','','usdjpy-d-21052016','','','2016-05-21 10:32:46','2016-05-21 15:32:46','',7939,'http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDJPY-D-21052016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(7932,1,'2016-05-21 07:51:22','2016-05-21 12:51:22','','EURCHF D 21052016','','inherit','open','closed','','eurchf-d-21052016','','','2016-05-21 10:30:29','2016-05-21 15:30:29','',7939,'http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/EURCHF-D-21052016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(7933,1,'2016-05-21 07:51:24','2016-05-21 12:51:24','','EURGBP D 21052016','','inherit','open','closed','','eurgbp-d-21052016','','','2016-05-21 10:30:14','2016-05-21 15:30:14','',7939,'http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/EURGBP-D-21052016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(7934,1,'2016-05-21 07:51:26','2016-05-21 12:51:26','','GBPCHF DAILY 21052016','','inherit','open','closed','','gbpchf-daily-21052016','','','2016-05-21 10:30:03','2016-05-21 15:30:03','',7939,'http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/GBPCHF-DAILY-21052016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(7935,1,'2016-05-21 07:51:31','2016-05-21 12:51:31','','NZDCHF D 21052016','','inherit','open','closed','','nzdchf-d-21052016','','','2016-05-21 10:29:49','2016-05-21 15:29:49','',7939,'http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/NZDCHF-D-21052016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(7936,1,'2016-05-21 07:51:34','2016-05-21 12:51:34','','USDSEK DAILY 21052016','','inherit','open','closed','','usdsek-daily-21052016','','','2016-05-21 10:29:30','2016-05-21 15:29:30','',7939,'http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDSEK-DAILY-21052016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(7939,1,'2016-05-21 10:36:30','2016-05-21 15:36:30','<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong> INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nLast week was as they say…”One helluva week”.\r\n\r\nI made the decision ahead of the FOMC minutes release to basically have a clear out of many open trades, reduce position sizes, play with stops and take pips and profits off the table. I was lucky the day coincided with another BREXIT poll. This one was mainly based around London and published in the Evening Standard newspaper the night before (for me). It was a big “remain” vote ahead of BREXIT and the cable rallied.\r\n\r\nThe cable rally helped GBP/NZD longs, EUR/GBP shorts and generally gave the FX markets a window when a sigh of relief appeared to be taken. I capitalized on these moves and took just over 1,000 pips out of the market in a couple of hours.\r\n\r\nIn fact, looking back over the past month or so, ever since I decided that TWITTER was full of bullsh*t and ego driven alleged traders with no skin in the game, which in turn, resulted in me pulling back from TWITTER on my main feed @pipaccumulator, my trading performance has improved….go figure that one?\r\n\r\nWhilst it means my exposure to new subscribers is considerably less, my trading fortunes have improved. Obviously, my brain is now in turmoil; how do I strike that balance of tweeting, adding fresh subscribers to the PREMIUM SERVICE and maintaining the run of great momentum and probability trades. That is a bottle of wine, or maybe the Jack and Diet debate that needs to be done over this weekend.\r\n\r\nNevertheless, this month so far the PREMIUM SERVICE has added 1,766 pips and year to date the total is 5,580 pips. Whilst we are not yet at the end of the month, the profit/loss ratio is great and income per trade is up. As my buddy Roger says “Happy Days!!”\r\n\r\nShifting gears…\r\n\r\nFREE PREMIUM SERVICE subscriptions, just to remind you; you could be the next winner of a free PREMIUM SERVICE subscription; if you subscribe to receive this free blog via my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nYou are automatically entered into a free monthly draw, once you’ve subscribed. Each month during 2016 one lucky blog subscriber will receive a free subscription to the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\nAs I am the UK and IRELAND in June and early July the next winner will enjoy a subscription until my summer break in mid July. The next draw after the one in a couple of weeks will then be early September after my summer break from blogging.\r\n\r\nMy plans for the short tour of the UK and IRELAND (see chart below with itinerary) are intensifying a lot more now. My power point software skills are being pushed to the limits, never mind the continual refining of the presentation content.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/TOUR-DATES-2016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7597\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/TOUR-DATES-2016.png\" alt=\"TOUR DATES 2016\" width=\"630\" height=\"397\" /></a>\r\n\r\nI hope to meet and greet many traders on this trip and I am really excited about the presentations that are scheduled. Please come along if you can and bring friends who you think may be interested in starting to trade the Forex market.\r\n\r\nSpaces are limited so to register for an event, please go to my landing page on <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> and click on LIVE EVENTS. The drop down menu there has all the information that you will require, plus the email address to use to register at to reserve a space. I would place it here but I would end up getting thousand’s of SPAM emails, which I want to avoid.\r\n\r\nPlease note that because of the TOUR, copies of this blog will have a revised format on the following dates: -\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">18<sup>th</sup> June 2016\r\n25<sup>th</sup> June 2016\r\n2<sup>nd</sup> July 2016</p>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber, fee based trade set-up option for Forex traders regardless of experience or background. I provide traders suggested trades, and some market commentary related to open trades or factors within the overall market that have my interest.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and the various trade styles plus how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nAdditional information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE you will require a credit card\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><u>PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION COSTS:</u></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Details of features and benefits of a PREMIUM SERVICE subscription can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the dropdown tab at the top of the page entitled HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE OF THE PREMIUM SERVICE. To subscribe follow the SUBSCRIBE HERE tab.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">PREMIUM SERVICE subscription costs are as follows: -</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">CAD$240.00 - 4 weeks (1 month)\r\nCAD$500.00 - 10 weeks (3 months)\r\nCAD$750.00 - 20 weeks (6 months)\r\nCAD$1,250.00 - 40 weeks (12 months)\r\n<u>PLUS</u>: Existing PLATINUM MEMBERS (annual subscribers) can re-subscribe for a further 12 months for CAD$1,000.00</p>\r\nI work for 40 weeks or so a year, the annual subscription is based on 40 published blogs of the WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU. For the remaining 12 weeks of the year, I am usually around tweeting and managing existing LIVE trades.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><u>PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE THIS MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:</u></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">NET PIPS THIS MONTH SO FAR:            +1,766\r\nNET PIPS THIS YEAR SO FAR:                +5,580</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">NET PIPS 2015:       +10,686\r\nNET PIPS 2014:       +11,209</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">(I trade basically for 10 months a year. I do not trade from mid July through early September or mid December through early January).</p>\r\nIf you want more data or detail about the performance and the tabs on my website landing page do not answer your questions, contact me directly and I will supply the trading data you require. There are NO secrets. There are many, many spreadsheets detailing performance trade by trade and by trade and by trading style, way too many to place in this blog. If you are interested in the PREMIUM SERVICE and want more information, all you have to do is ask.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>LAST WEEK’S NEWS – MY THOUGHTS:</strong>\r\n\r\nWhilst there were a few high note events and pieces of news last week, as far as I am concerned the FOMC minutes took first place and all else dropped down to the lower peg.\r\n\r\nEverything last week was really focused on would the FED mention hikes in the minutes? Without doubt, ahead of the data release, there was a coordinated\r\n\r\neffort by the FED to start talking up the possibility of a hike in June or July. Significantly, there were no comments from Janet Yellen or her boy Stanley Fischer and whilst we are really none the wiser, the market is what it is, and is starting to show a reaction to a rate hike possibility. (I am looking at this later in the blog, so I will keep my powder dry until later).\r\n\r\nThe minutes were a little HAWKISH and the USD gained strength across the board, at the moment we are consolidating that move and the prior moves of USD buying.\r\n\r\nThere are huge event risks, which I talked about a couple of weeks ago, still hanging over the markets and I believe that there is a realization that the FED needs to put something away for a rainy day given all the risks ahead and therefore the desire to hike is stronger. Yellen is a DOVE, she is not a risk taker and she is surrounded by a group of individuals, who are at times loose canons but they all fall in line when she has them in a room and they have to vote. When they are not in that room to vote they say what they want and it can be very misleading, especially as the non-voting members of the Fed can cloud the issue.\r\n\r\nSo, I am not getting carried away in any direction at the moment, other than I do think that the FED has to act sooner rather than later and the dithering of the past will just kill them moving forward if they continue with a wait and see policy. The Fed is in great danger of being behind the curve and the continued dithering causes uncertainly. Allegedly, uncertainty is one thing that the FED does not want to create. So far in my opinion, they are guilty if this.\r\n\r\nRight now, it looks like the USD is consolidating for a move higher back towards 100.00 and beyond. Lets see what happens.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>WHAT’S BIG ON MY MIND:</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>THE NIGHTMARE SCENARIO</strong></p>\r\nI trade, I blog and do my very best to provide my subscribers with trade set-ups to make them and myself a nice little income. I am now using the phrase “STEADY EDDIE” a lot as I believe it’s all about consistency and letting the trades come to you. There is little point trading for trade’s sake. It’s not my style and I believe that one should stick to one’s strengths rather than have weaknesses exposed.\r\n\r\nOver the past week or so as I analyze the geopolitical events and major monetary policy decisions that are on the horizon, I am constantly getting myself geared up for what I am calling the NIGHTMARE SCENARIO.\r\n\r\nI am of the opinion that we are heading feet first into a full-blown recession, eyes open and there seems to be an atmosphere around of complacency that all economic matters in the world, whilst not perfect are moving along slowly but in the right direction.\r\n\r\nAs stated I think a little differently. I believe we are on the brink of recession in Canada, the USA, the UK and the rest of Europe and probably Japan as well. I know people will quote government economic data, I believe a lot of this data is massaged to the extent that at times it seems to be detached from reality on the ground in Main Street.\r\n\r\nEverything for me is based around simplicity, why over-complicate matters. Over complication creates misleading interpretation, which, in my opinion, leads to further complication and I strongly believe that this was at the core of the securitization issues that led to the 2007-8 financial crash.\r\n\r\nWe are at the precipice at the moment with so many economies around the world. One jitter, one bad move and like a house of cards it all falls down.\r\n\r\nLet me elaborate…\r\n\r\nRightly or wrongly, it’s my blog and I can what I want.\r\n\r\nKeeping it really simple, I believe that housing is about 75-85% of the catalyst for everything in an economy. It is the circle from which it all happens, employment, wages the lot.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>If the housing market is moving, people are always doing home improvements or buying goods, equipment and services.</li>\r\n 	<li>Contractors are always busy and small business grows.</li>\r\n 	<li>People are hired and wages improve.</li>\r\n 	<li>The tax intake for an economy improves through both direct and indirect taxes.</li>\r\n 	<li>Local economies expand as local councils/towns invest in infrastructure and services.</li>\r\n 	<li>Central government invests in infrastructure and grand projects.</li>\r\n 	<li>Bank lending expands and businesses grow and have expansion plans.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nWe are not really getting this. As soon as you see green shoots of growth we are brought back to earth with a bang, as bad news always seems to follow good news these days… why is this?\r\n\r\nYes, I believe that the FED dithered in 2015 and missed the moment. Janet Yellen had to raise rates in December 2015 to save face.\r\n\r\nYes, I believe that the German approach of Austerity has set back the EUROZONE economically for decades. The handling of the GREECE debt is a disgrace. The constant refusal to offer debt relief to a country that has more chance, of launching a space program, and being the first to have a man on Mars, than repay its loans before ARMAGEDDON hits, beggars belief.\r\n\r\nYes, I believe that market correlations are so inter-twinned now that we are very quickly approaching the “one world – one market” scenario. Many might argue to a large extent we are already there.\r\n\r\nYes, I also believe that to a very large extent central banks are now largely emasculated. I was and still am, undecided 100%... (do you feel my indecision?) on the side that Central Bank monetary policy is the biggest factor in price movement in the currency markets. Yet, I believe that we have come to the end of the road regarding fiscal initiatives and structural reforms are now required. The markets are now immune to a large extent with the CURRENCY WARS. Previous moves after central bank policy initiatives by the BOJ and ECB highlight this point perfectly.\r\n\r\nFor nearly my entire trading career, all I have heard month after month are central bank governors or presidents stating that they are not achieving their growth GDP objectives. They reset the poorly set out goals to lower levels and then stretch out the timeline to meet these goals which are still NEVER achieved. This happens every few months from every central bank.\r\n\r\nCentral banks want inflation. They are just not getting it. In fact we have had more DEFLATION than INFLATION in the last 10 years. All central banks do is set targets to please I do not know who, they fail to meet these and they do a reset and push out… We need structural reforms within governments.\r\n\r\nPoliticians will not commit. They are scared sh**less at the thought. Politicians are only interested in popularity; they have a four-year time line that’s all.\r\n\r\nBack to my nightmare….\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>DONALD TRUMP – THE U.S. PRESIDENTIAL CIRCUS</li>\r\n 	<li>HOUSING BUBBLES</li>\r\n 	<li>BREXIT and UK FRAGILITY</li>\r\n 	<li>EUROZONE IMPLOSION / CONTAGION EFFECT</li>\r\n 	<li>JAPAN FAILURE</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nIf the opening paragraphs weren’t enough to keep me 24 x 5 at my screens, trading those 5 sub titles above will do just that.\r\n\r\nDONALD TRUMP – THE U.S. PRESIDENTIAL CIRCUS:\r\n\r\nHe’s probably a very nice and interesting guy. He is a salesman, he is used to getting his own way and I totally get why American voters who have been kept in check, ruled by fear for so long see THE DONALD as a breath of fresh air. They are buying a promise that TRUMP will sort out the paralysis party divide driven Washington club that is only interested in themselves and their party with two fingers raised to the electorate that elected them….. I get it.\r\n\r\nThe elitism of Washington and failed leaders from the past who were never able to get a political union to pass key policies has caught up with the nations capital. It has been seen as dysfunctional and heartless in the past, a change is coming sooner or later. Whether you like THE DONALD or not, he has changed the face of U.S. politics, it is a reality show on TV and the media who are just as big dinosaurs as Washington, were caught off guard and simply did not know how to react. The media in the U.S. is bought off just like Oil and Pharmaceuticals. The media had to shift gear as they were seen to be biased which we all know they are, but they have to attempt to hide that bias.\r\n\r\nTHE DONALD shake up, should he be elected in November will in my opinion cause a stock market sell off. There will be so much uncertainty. Even now as the presumptive nominee, he keeps away from policy in preference to personal attacks, and politicians not being the brightest cannot see through this and attack back. In this game THE DONALD has better than a 50-50 chance of a win.\r\n\r\nTHE DONALD &amp; THE U.S. PRESIDENTIAL CIRCUS = uncertainty.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nHOUSING BUBBLES:\r\n\r\nWhilst we are bouncing off the bottom economically all over the world certain pockets, mainly capital and major cities such as LONDON, SYDNEY, AUCKLAND, TORONTO, VANCOUVER, SAN FRANCISCO, NEW YORK etc. have housing bubbles and prices are skyrocketing. Central banks and governments want to manage this and not fuel the bubbles, but the balancing act they are required to perform in relation to less well-off parts of their country is a difficult one.\r\n\r\nWe are one geopolitical event away from a HOUSING CRASH as a bubble bursts; will this be another “House of Cards”?\r\n\r\nRemember in the currency wars, lower interest rates are seen as key. Lower interest rates will only fuel local housing bubbles.\r\n\r\nHOUSING BUBBLES = uncertainty.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nBREXIT:\r\n\r\nThere is a belief that at the end of the day a “Better the devil you know than the devil you don’t” approach to voting IN or OUT will apply in the UK. I am now reading articles telling me that educated people want to REMAIN and the less well educated want a BREXIT.\r\n\r\nIn 2016, isn’t it just great the way we pigeon hole and pre-judge facts. Frankly, whilst it is relatively straightforward to put an X in a box to stay or go, it’s not that simple.\r\n\r\nAs the TV debates happen the facts will come out and more of a balanced discussion can take place. The media in the UK is the same as the U.S., largely it is biased and very opinionated and whilst voting habits will be directed by what channel and what newspaper you read, nearly all decisions in the UK fall in the hands of the 10-15% floating voter. Are these people well educated or not well educated, I doubt all the research in the world could answer this.\r\n\r\nIn addition, the polls got the Scottish referendum and the UK election that followed arseways, so I for one would not be beholden to a UK poll result.\r\n\r\nI am not 100% convinced on all the facts that I am told to believe about the merits of a REMAIN or BREXIT vote. More debate is definitely required, and more qualification of the alleged facts. This is NOT a done deal as we are led to believe, it is complicated.\r\n\r\nLet me give you one fact that I am hearing that I have yet to read about; tradesmen in the UK are really pissed off with the freedom of employment policy within the EUROPEAN UNION. From distressed markets in mainland Europe, tradesman come to the UK, to set up, it’s all above board. However, as a result of even greater competition in an already distressed UK market they squeeze margins that are already tight. The trade unions are NOT happy; never mind your local plumber, electrician, builder etc. These people account for a huge number of voters especially when you add in families etc. I am told that the building / home improvement industry is virtually BREXIT committed.\r\n\r\nRemember Mark Carney BOE governor, with his failed forward guidance policy for the markets. His forward guidance was totally 100% market misleading. The classic being, when unemployment fell to 7% that was Carney’s original trigger to raise rates. Unemployment is now at 5% and the BOE is talking more about DOVISH policies rather than HAWKISH.\r\n\r\nDavid Cameron (Prime Minister) talks about how good the UK economy is yet here we are still on the bottom, no movement, what is wrong?\r\n\r\nAre all the statistics that we are given to measure performance by, so manipulated through years of massaging that they do not adequately reflect a true position anymore?\r\n\r\nAm I such a cynic to believe that as governments receive the true data, they hide away from the public eye and spend their days popping Prozac and hiding under their desks? Politicians lie and they mislead to maintain popularity and votes…there are “LYIN’ TEDS” everywhere around the globe!!\r\n\r\nBREXIT and UK FRAGILITY = uncertainty.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nEUROZONE IMPLOSION / CONTAGION EFFECT:\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, the EUROZONE is still very fragile and one step from dropping off the cliff. The refugee crisis, GREECE, unemployment, DEFLATION and a UK BREXIT… take your pick.\r\n\r\nMario Draghi (ECB, President) has gone as far as he can, the markets have basically told him to feck off. He has NO bullets, NO bazookas left.\r\n\r\n27 countries in the EUROZONE need to implement major structural reforms to improve and bring back growth to the stagnating economies. As I wrote before, there is more chance of GREECE winning the space race to Mars.\r\n\r\nWhat happens should a BREXIT vote prevail in the UK? I am of the opinion that many of the EUROZONE populist parties are ready, waiting and watching ready to capitalize, such as: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>GERMANY:                 Alternative for Germany</li>\r\n 	<li>FRANCE:                     National Front</li>\r\n 	<li>ITALY:                          Five Stars</li>\r\n 	<li>SPAIN:                         Podermos</li>\r\n 	<li>NETHERLANDS:      Party for Freedom</li>\r\n 	<li>AUSTRIA:                   Austrian Freedom Party</li>\r\n 	<li>FINLAND:                  Finns Party</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nOn Friday last week I noticed a great quote from Jeroen Dijsselbloem, leader of the EUROZONE Finance Ministers, it said “FX intervention to improve competitive unwise”. Holy Mother of God what rock has he been hiding under.\r\n\r\nEUROZONE IMPLOSION / CONTAGION EFFECT = uncertainty.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nJAPAN FAILS:\r\n\r\nFrom the country that has the largest QE and QQE program ever, we still have problems. Reputations are on the line, Abe (Prime Minister) and Kuroda (BOJ); are for want of a better phrase looking down the barrel of a shotgun.\r\n\r\nWe are now a couple of years or so into Abe’s policy initiatives to bring Japan out of recession, stimulate growth and provide a stabilizing effect with the YEN for businesses moving forward. Initially it worked, the YEN was weakened and businesses could export cheaper as the weaker YEN created greater competitiveness. Of late this has faltered and like most economies Japan is fragile.\r\n\r\nThe debate is on regarding whether the YEN is a flight to safety currency moving forward, that aside there is NOT an infinitum amount of time for Abe. The last time Kuroda came to the markets he disappointed big time. It has taken a lot of jawboning to strengthen the YEN.\r\n\r\nJAPAN FAILURE = uncertainty.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>DONALD TRUMP – THE U.S. PRESIDENTIAL CIRCUS</li>\r\n 	<li>HOUSING BUBBLES</li>\r\n 	<li>BREXIT and UK FRAGILITY</li>\r\n 	<li>EUROZONE IMPLOSION / CONTAGION EFFECT</li>\r\n 	<li>JAPAN FAILURE</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nWe have an inter-connected world and the domino effect is real and threatening when you have as I see it so many precipice issues.\r\n\r\nIt’s all about confidence.\r\n\r\nAt the end of the day FEAR and GREED will rule as they always do.\r\n\r\nMost central banks have nothing to add should we hit a recession, which is my fear; my nightmare scenario. The kitchen sink and all fittings plus the all bathroom items and fittings have been thrown at markets to solidify and stimulate. Only the extreme unconventional measures are left, such as negative interest rates and literally the buying of stocks, as many central banks have no more bonds or fixed assets left to purchase.\r\n\r\nFrom a trading perspective there would be massive volatility, with huge worldwide implications… will my nightmare become a reality or partial reality?\r\n\r\nWill one domino fall taking the rest with it?\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBER EXCLUSIVE AREA:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>THE PREMIUM SERVICE – TRADING REVIEW:</strong>\r\n\r\nTRADING REVIEW:\r\n\r\nA great week of trading with just under 1,000 net pips added. Year to Date we now stand at over 5,500 pips. When you consider that at the end of February we were below zero, I am very happy with the turnaround.\r\n\r\nI slowed down after the FOMC minutes to let the markets consolidate. I have several fresh trades for this week based off some nice retraces last Thursday / Friday.\r\n\r\nThe “G” trades are now well off, what I would call potential entry levels. I will take a longer look at these probably after Monday’s close and re-evaluate.\r\n\r\nFrom a macro level the profit/loss ratio is good, trading with wider stops and smaller position sizes gives us greater flexibility and for the foreseeable future I see no reason to change away from this. Trading is all about the longer term and NOT high volume scalping trades, which are more risky in my opinion given the short term trading horizons.\r\n\r\nI have to get back into CHF trades sooner rather than later.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nSUBSCRIPTIONS:\r\n\r\nPricing options are now in CAD$.\r\n\r\nSILVER membership has been removed; being honest, I know a few of you have traded up, but all SILVER memberships really attracted were gamblers, who were time consuming, just looking for multiple trades per day.\r\n\r\nFrankly I want traders with me who are interested in the long-term, with steady income requirements that can supplement existing household income by being a part-time trader or those looking to develop a full-time income but being based upon longer-term horizons.\r\n\r\nThose of you who sign up, or have signed up for annual subscriptions have been raised to PLATINUM SUBSCRIBERS (the highest level of subscription). The initial benefit of this is that annual subscribers who renew for a further 12 months will receive a discount from the published price option. Currently it is CAD$1,250.00 to initially subscribe for 12 months with renewals for an annual PLATINUM subscriber at CAD$1,000.00.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>CHARTS THAT ARE ATTRACTING MY INTEREST:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDSEK-DAILY-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7936\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDSEK-DAILY-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"USDSEK DAILY 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/NZDCHF-D-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7935\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/NZDCHF-D-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"NZDCHF D 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/GBPCHF-DAILY-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7934\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/GBPCHF-DAILY-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"GBPCHF DAILY 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/EURGBP-D-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7933\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/EURGBP-D-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"EURGBP D 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/EURCHF-D-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7932\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/EURCHF-D-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"EURCHF D 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>TRADES REVIEW:</strong>\r\n\r\nThe excel spreadsheets below details current LIVE and pending LIMIT ORDER trades: -\r\n\r\n<strong><a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/LIVE-TRADES-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7917\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/LIVE-TRADES-21052016.png\" alt=\"LIVE TRADES 21052016\" width=\"796\" height=\"590\" /></a> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/LIMIT-ORDERS-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7916\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/LIMIT-ORDERS-21052016.png\" alt=\"LIMIT ORDERS 21052016\" width=\"671\" height=\"457\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> COMING UP THIS WEEK:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>THIS WEEK’S FOREX NEWS THAT INTERESTS ME:</u>\r\n\r\n(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market other than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to <a href=\"http://www.forexfactory.com\">www.forexfactory.com</a> and <a href=\"http://www.tradingeconomics.com\">www.tradingeconomics.com</a> for a more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).\r\n\r\nSUNDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: CAD – BOC Rate Statement.\r\nWEDNESDAY: NZD – Annual Budget Release.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: N/A.\r\n<u>THE USD MAJORS – MY THOUGHTS (A REVIEW): </u>\r\n\r\n(In this section I have as usual kept my charts as minimalist as possible. With regards to charting in my opinion less is more!! I hope that they are clear. All readers regardless of level of experience should be able to follow my thoughts from my comments to the levels on the charts with ease)\r\n\r\nMy comments are contained on the charts.\r\n\r\nEUR/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.1221\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/EURUSD-D-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7926\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/EURUSD-D-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"EURUSD D 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nGBP/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.4497\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/GBPUSD-D-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7927\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/GBPUSD-D-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"GBPUSD D 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nAUD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.7222\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/AUDUSD-D-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7925\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/AUDUSD-D-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"AUDUSD D 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nNZD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.6762\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/NZDUSD-D-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7928\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/NZDUSD-D-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"NZDUSD D 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.3113\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDCAD-D-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7929\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDCAD-D-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"USDCAD D 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF - Weekly Closing Price: 0.9900\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDCHF-DAILY-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7937\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDCHF-DAILY-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"USDCHF DAILY 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY - Weekly Closing Price: 110.11\r\n\r\n<u><a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDJPY-D-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7931\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDJPY-D-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"USDJPY D 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a></u>\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u>MY CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nThe FOMC drove the markets last week and the USD strengthened further on the back of a HAWKISH April meeting minutes. After, the data release we have seen to a large extent consolidation moves, which are completely normal. It is now this coming week when I will be entering back into the market once again, albeit slow and steady given all the warnings that I see that I have written about in this week’s blog.\r\n\r\nWe are light on news that interests me this week.\r\n\r\nBe prepared the BOC could cut. The wild fires around Fort McMurray will be a huge burden on the Canadian economy and I think that for once Stephen Poloz (BOC, Governor) may want to be ahead of the curve. It may not happen but be ready just in case.\r\n\r\nI think that the oil price has peaked, so should the BOC cut and the oil price falls the USD/CAD could be back at 1.3600 very quickly.\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nTake care,\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n<h6>DATE: 21st May 2016\r\nBLOG REFERENCE: #103 PREMIUM SERVICE VERSION</h6>\r\n&nbsp;','THE NIGHTMARE SCENARIO','','publish','open','closed','','the-nightmare-scenario','','','2016-05-21 13:35:35','2016-05-21 18:35:35','',0,'http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?post_type=member_posts&#038;p=7939',0,'member_posts','',0),(7940,1,'2016-05-21 10:33:20','2016-05-21 15:33:20','<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong> INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nLast week was as they say…”One helluva week”.\r\n\r\nI made the decision ahead of the FOMC minutes release to basically have a clear out of many open trades, reduce position sizes, play with stops and take pips and profits off the table. I was lucky the day coincided with another BREXIT poll. This one was mainly based around London and published in the Evening Standard newspaper the night before (for me). It was a big “remain” vote ahead of BREXIT and the cable rallied.\r\n\r\nThe cable rally helped GBP/NZD longs, EUR/GBP shorts and generally gave the FX markets a window when a sigh of relief appeared to be taken. I capitalized on these moves and took just over 1,000 pips out of the market in a couple of hours.\r\n\r\nIn fact, looking back over the past month or so, ever since I decided that TWITTER was full of bullsh*t and ego driven alleged traders with no skin in the game, which in turn, resulted in me pulling back from TWITTER on my main feed @pipaccumulator, my trading performance has improved….go figure that one?\r\n\r\nWhilst it means my exposure to new subscribers is considerably less, my trading fortunes have improved. Obviously, my brain is now in turmoil; how do I strike that balance of tweeting, adding fresh subscribers to the PREMIUM SERVICE and maintaining the run of great momentum and probability trades. That is a bottle of wine, or maybe the Jack and Diet debate that needs to be done over this weekend.\r\n\r\nNevertheless, this month so far the PREMIUM SERVICE has added 1,766 pips and year to date the total is 5,580 pips. Whilst we are not yet at the end of the month, the profit/loss ratio is great and income per trade is up. As my buddy Roger says “Happy Days!!”\r\n\r\nShifting gears…\r\n\r\nFREE PREMIUM SERVICE subscriptions, just to remind you; you could be the next winner of a free PREMIUM SERVICE subscription; if you subscribe to receive this free blog via my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nYou are automatically entered into a free monthly draw, once you’ve subscribed. Each month during 2016 one lucky blog subscriber will receive a free subscription to the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\nAs I am the UK and IRELAND in June and early July the next winner will enjoy a subscription until my summer break in mid July. The next draw after the one in a couple of weeks will then be early September after my summer break from blogging.\r\n\r\nMy plans for the short tour of the UK and IRELAND (see chart below with itinerary) are intensifying a lot more now. My power point software skills are being pushed to the limits, never mind the continual refining of the presentation content.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/TOUR-DATES-2016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7597\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/TOUR-DATES-2016.png\" alt=\"TOUR DATES 2016\" width=\"630\" height=\"397\" /></a>\r\n\r\nI hope to meet and greet many traders on this trip and I am really excited about the presentations that are scheduled. Please come along if you can and bring friends who you think may be interested in starting to trade the Forex market.\r\n\r\nSpaces are limited so to register for an event, please go to my landing page on <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> and click on LIVE EVENTS. The drop down menu there has all the information that you will require, plus the email address to use to register at to reserve a space. I would place it here but I would end up getting thousand’s of SPAM emails, which I want to avoid.\r\n\r\nPlease note that because of the TOUR, copies of this blog will have a revised format on the following dates: -\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">18<sup>th</sup> June 2016\r\n25<sup>th</sup> June 2016\r\n2<sup>nd</sup> July 2016</p>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber, fee based trade set-up option for Forex traders regardless of experience or background. I provide traders suggested trades, and some market commentary related to open trades or factors within the overall market that have my interest.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and the various trade styles plus how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nAdditional information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE you will require a credit card\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><u>PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION COSTS:</u></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Details of features and benefits of a PREMIUM SERVICE subscription can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the dropdown tab at the top of the page entitled HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE OF THE PREMIUM SERVICE. To subscribe follow the SUBSCRIBE HERE tab.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">PREMIUM SERVICE subscription costs are as follows: -</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">CAD$240.00 - 4 weeks (1 month)\r\nCAD$500.00 - 10 weeks (3 months)\r\nCAD$750.00 - 20 weeks (6 months)\r\nCAD$1,250.00 - 40 weeks (12 months)\r\n<u>PLUS</u>: Existing PLATINUM MEMBERS (annual subscribers) can re-subscribe for a further 12 months for CAD$1,000.00\r\n\r\nI work for 40 weeks or so a year, the annual subscription is based on 40 published blogs of the WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU. For the remaining 12 weeks of the year, I am usually around tweeting and managing existing LIVE trades.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><u>PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE THIS MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:</u></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">\r\nNET PIPS THIS MONTH SO FAR:            +1,766\r\nNET PIPS THIS YEAR SO FAR:                +5,580</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">NET PIPS 2015:       +10,686\r\nNET PIPS 2014:       +11,209</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">(I trade basically for 10 months a year. I do not trade from mid July through early September or mid December through early January).</p>\r\nIf you want more data or detail about the performance and the tabs on my website landing page do not answer your questions, contact me directly and I will supply the trading data you require. There are NO secrets. There are many, many spreadsheets detailing performance trade by trade and by trade and by trading style, way too many to place in this blog. If you are interested in the PREMIUM SERVICE and want more information, all you have to do is ask.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>LAST WEEK’S NEWS – MY THOUGHTS:</strong>\r\n\r\nWhilst there were a few high note events and pieces of news last week, as far as I am concerned the FOMC minutes took first place and all else dropped down to the lower peg.\r\n\r\nEverything last week was really focused on would the FED mention hikes in the minutes? Without doubt, ahead of the data release, there was a coordinated\r\n\r\neffort by the FED to start talking up the possibility of a hike in June or July. Significantly, there were no comments from Janet Yellen or her boy Stanley Fischer and whilst we are really none the wiser, the market is what it is, and is starting to show a reaction to a rate hike possibility. (I am looking at this later in the blog, so I will keep my powder dry until later).\r\n\r\nThe minutes were a little HAWKISH and the USD gained strength across the board, at the moment we are consolidating that move and the prior moves of USD buying.\r\n\r\nThere are huge event risks, which I talked about a couple of weeks ago, still hanging over the markets and I believe that there is a realization that the FED needs to put something away for a rainy day given all the risks ahead and therefore the desire to hike is stronger. Yellen is a DOVE, she is not a risk taker and she is surrounded by a group of individuals, who are at times loose canons but they all fall in line when she has them in a room and they have to vote. When they are not in that room to vote they say what they want and it can be very misleading, especially as the non-voting members of the Fed can cloud the issue.\r\n\r\nSo, I am not getting carried away in any direction at the moment, other than I do think that the FED has to act sooner rather than later and the dithering of the past will just kill them moving forward if they continue with a wait and see policy. The Fed is in great danger of being behind the curve and the continued dithering causes uncertainly. Allegedly, uncertainty is one thing that the FED does not want to create. So far in my opinion, they are guilty if this.\r\n\r\nRight now, it looks like the USD is consolidating for a move higher back towards 100.00 and beyond. Lets see what happens.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>WHAT’S BIG ON MY MIND:</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>THE NIGHTMARE SCENARIO</strong></p>\r\nI trade, I blog and do my very best to provide my subscribers with trade set-ups to make them and myself a nice little income. I am now using the phrase “STEADY EDDIE” a lot as I believe it’s all about consistency and letting the trades come to you. There is little point trading for trade’s sake. It’s not my style and I believe that one should stick to one’s strengths rather than have weaknesses exposed.\r\n\r\nOver the past week or so as I analyze the geopolitical events and major monetary policy decisions that are on the horizon, I am constantly getting myself geared up for what I am calling the NIGHTMARE SCENARIO.\r\n\r\nI am of the opinion that we are heading feet first into a full-blown recession, eyes open and there seems to be an atmosphere around of complacency that all economic matters in the world, whilst not perfect are moving along slowly but in the right direction.\r\n\r\nAs stated I think a little differently. I believe we are on the brink of recession in Canada, the USA, the UK and the rest of Europe and probably Japan as well. I know people will quote government economic data, I believe a lot of this data is massaged to the extent that at times it seems to be detached from reality on the ground in Main Street.\r\n\r\nEverything for me is based around simplicity, why over-complicate matters. Over complication creates misleading interpretation, which, in my opinion, leads to further complication and I strongly believe that this was at the core of the securitization issues that led to the 2007-8 financial crash.\r\n\r\nWe are at the precipice at the moment with so many economies around the world. One jitter, one bad move and like a house of cards it all falls down.\r\n\r\nLet me elaborate…\r\n\r\nRightly or wrongly, it’s my blog and I can what I want.\r\n\r\nKeeping it really simple, I believe that housing is about 75-85% of the catalyst for everything in an economy. It is the circle from which it all happens, employment, wages the lot.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>If the housing market is moving, people are always doing home improvements or buying goods, equipment and services.</li>\r\n 	<li>Contractors are always busy and small business grows.</li>\r\n 	<li>People are hired and wages improve.</li>\r\n 	<li>The tax intake for an economy improves through both direct and indirect taxes.</li>\r\n 	<li>Local economies expand as local councils/towns invest in infrastructure and services.</li>\r\n 	<li>Central government invests in infrastructure and grand projects.</li>\r\n 	<li>Bank lending expands and businesses grow and have expansion plans.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nWe are not really getting this. As soon as you see green shoots of growth we are brought back to earth with a bang, as bad news always seems to follow good news these days… why is this?\r\n\r\nYes, I believe that the FED dithered in 2015 and missed the moment. Janet Yellen had to raise rates in December 2015 to save face.\r\n\r\nYes, I believe that the German approach of Austerity has set back the EUROZONE economically for decades. The handling of the GREECE debt is a disgrace. The constant refusal to offer debt relief to a country that has more chance, of launching a space program, and being the first to have a man on Mars, than repay its loans before ARMAGEDDON hits, beggars belief.\r\n\r\nYes, I believe that market correlations are so inter-twinned now that we are very quickly approaching the “one world – one market” scenario. Many might argue to a large extent we are already there.\r\n\r\nYes, I also believe that to a very large extent central banks are now largely emasculated. I was and still am, undecided 100%... (do you feel my indecision?) on the side that Central Bank monetary policy is the biggest factor in price movement in the currency markets. Yet, I believe that we have come to the end of the road regarding fiscal initiatives and structural reforms are now required. The markets are now immune to a large extent with the CURRENCY WARS. Previous moves after central bank policy initiatives by the BOJ and ECB highlight this point perfectly.\r\n\r\nFor nearly my entire trading career, all I have heard month after month are central bank governors or presidents stating that they are not achieving their growth GDP objectives. They reset the poorly set out goals to lower levels and then stretch out the timeline to meet these goals which are still NEVER achieved. This happens every few months from every central bank.\r\n\r\nCentral banks want inflation. They are just not getting it. In fact we have had more DEFLATION than INFLATION in the last 10 years. All central banks do is set targets to please I do not know who, they fail to meet these and they do a reset and push out… We need structural reforms within governments.\r\n\r\nPoliticians will not commit. They are scared sh**less at the thought. Politicians are only interested in popularity; they have a four-year time line that’s all.\r\n\r\nBack to my nightmare….\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>DONALD TRUMP – THE U.S. PRESIDENTIAL CIRCUS</li>\r\n 	<li>HOUSING BUBBLES</li>\r\n 	<li>BREXIT and UK FRAGILITY</li>\r\n 	<li>EUROZONE IMPLOSION / CONTAGION EFFECT</li>\r\n 	<li>JAPAN FAILURE</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nIf the opening paragraphs weren’t enough to keep me 24 x 5 at my screens, trading those 5 sub titles above will do just that.\r\n\r\nDONALD TRUMP – THE U.S. PRESIDENTIAL CIRCUS:\r\n\r\nHe’s probably a very nice and interesting guy. He is a salesman, he is used to getting his own way and I totally get why American voters who have been kept in check, ruled by fear for so long see THE DONALD as a breath of fresh air. They are buying a promise that TRUMP will sort out the paralysis party divide driven Washington club that is only interested in themselves and their party with two fingers raised to the electorate that elected them….. I get it.\r\n\r\nThe elitism of Washington and failed leaders from the past who were never able to get a political union to pass key policies has caught up with the nations capital. It has been seen as dysfunctional and heartless in the past, a change is coming sooner or later. Whether you like THE DONALD or not, he has changed the face of U.S. politics, it is a reality show on TV and the media who are just as big dinosaurs as Washington, were caught off guard and simply did not know how to react. The media in the U.S. is bought off just like Oil and Pharmaceuticals. The media had to shift gear as they were seen to be biased which we all know they are, but they have to attempt to hide that bias.\r\n\r\nTHE DONALD shake up, should he be elected in November will in my opinion cause a stock market sell off. There will be so much uncertainty. Even now as the presumptive nominee, he keeps away from policy in preference to personal attacks, and politicians not being the brightest cannot see through this and attack back. In this game THE DONALD has better than a 50-50 chance of a win.\r\n\r\nTHE DONALD &amp; THE U.S. PRESIDENTIAL CIRCUS = uncertainty.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nHOUSING BUUBLES:\r\n\r\nWhilst we are bouncing off the bottom economically all over the world certain pockets, mainly capital and major cities such as LONDON, SYDNEY, AUCKLAND, TORONTO, VANCOUVER, SAN FRANCISCO, NEW YORK etc. have housing bubbles and prices are skyrocketing. Central banks and governments want to manage this and not fuel the bubbles, but the balancing act they are required to perform in relation to less well-off parts of their country is a difficult one.\r\n\r\nWe are one geopolitical event away from a HOUSING CRASH as a bubble bursts; will this be another “House of Cards”?\r\n\r\nRemember in the currency wars, lower interest rates are seen as key. Lower interest rates will only fuel local housing bubbles.\r\n\r\nHOUSING BUBBLES = uncertainty.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nBREXIT:\r\n\r\nThere is a belief that at the end of the day a “Better the devil you know than the devil you don’t” approach to voting IN or OUT will apply in the UK. I am now reading articles telling me that educated people want to REMAIN and the less well educated want a BREXIT.\r\n\r\nIn 2016, isn’t it just great the way we pigeon hole and pre-judge facts. Frankly, whilst it is relatively straightforward to put an X in a box to stay or go, it’s not that simple.\r\n\r\nAs the TV debates happen the facts will come out and more of a balanced discussion can take place. The media in the UK is the same as the U.S., largely it is biased and very opinionated and whilst voting habits will be directed by what channel and what newspaper you read, nearly all decisions in the UK fall in the hands of the 10-15% floating voter. Are these people well educated or not well educated, I doubt all the research in the world could answer this.\r\n\r\nIn addition, the polls got the Scottish referendum and the UK election that followed arseways, so I for one would not be beholden to a UK poll result.\r\n\r\nI am not 100% convinced on all the facts that I am told to believe about the merits of a REMAIN or BREXIT vote. More debate is definitely required, and more qualification of the alleged facts. This is NOT a done deal as we are led to believe, it is complicated.\r\n\r\nLet me give you one fact that I am hearing that I have yet to read about; tradesmen in the UK are really pissed off with the freedom of employment policy within the EUROPEAN UNION. From distressed markets in mainland Europe, tradesman come to the UK, to set up, it’s all above board. However, as a result of even greater competition in an already distressed UK market they squeeze margins that are already tight. The trade unions are NOT happy; never mind your local plumber, electrician, builder etc. These people account for a huge number of voters especially when you add in families etc. I am told that the building / home improvement industry is virtually BREXIT committed.\r\n\r\nRemember Mark Carney BOE governor, with his failed forward guidance policy for the markets. His forward guidance was totally 100% market misleading. The classic being, when unemployment fell to 7% that was Carney’s original trigger to raise rates. Unemployment is now at 5% and the BOE is talking more about DOVISH policies rather than HAWKISH.\r\n\r\nDavid Cameron (Prime Minister) talks about how good the UK economy is yet here we are still on the bottom, no movement, what is wrong?\r\n\r\nAre all the statistics that we are given to measure performance by, so manipulated through years of massaging that they do not adequately reflect a true position anymore?\r\n\r\nAm I such a cynic to believe that as governments receive the true data, they hide away from the public eye and spend their days popping Prozac and hiding under their desks? Politicians lie and they mislead to maintain popularity and votes…there are “LYIN’ TEDS” everywhere around the globe!!\r\n\r\nBREXIT and UK FRAGILITY = uncertainty.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nEUROZONE IMPLOSION / CONTAGION EFFECT:\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, the EUROZONE is still very fragile and one step from dropping off the cliff. The refugee crisis, GREECE, unemployment, DEFLATION and a UK BREXIT… take your pick.\r\n\r\nMario Draghi (ECB, President) has gone as far as he can, the markets have basically told him to feck off. He has NO bullets, NO bazookas left.\r\n\r\n27 countries in the EUROZONE need to implement major structural reforms to improve and bring back growth to the stagnating economies. As I wrote before, there is more chance of GREECE winning the space race to Mars.\r\n\r\nWhat happens should a BREXIT vote prevail in the UK? I am of the opinion that many of the EUROZONE populist parties are ready, waiting and watching ready to capitalize, such as: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>GERMANY:                 Alternative for Germany</li>\r\n 	<li>FRANCE:                     National Front</li>\r\n 	<li>ITALY:                          Five Stars</li>\r\n 	<li>SPAIN:                         Podermos</li>\r\n 	<li>NETHERLANDS:      Party for Freedom</li>\r\n 	<li>AUSTRIA:                   Austrian Freedom Party</li>\r\n 	<li>FINLAND:                  Finns Party</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nOn Friday last week I noticed a great quote from Jeroen Dijsselbloem, leader of the EUROZONE Finance Ministers, it said “FX intervention to improve competitive unwise”. Holy Mother of God what rock has he been hiding under.\r\n\r\nEUROZONE IMPLOSION / CONTAGION EFFECT = uncertainty.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nJAPAN FAILS:\r\n\r\nFrom the country that has the largest QE and QQE program ever, we still have problems. Reputations are on the line, Abe (Prime Minister) and Kuroda (BOJ); are for want of a better phrase looking down the barrel of a shotgun.\r\n\r\nWe are now a couple of years or so into Abe’s policy initiatives to bring Japan out of recession, stimulate growth and provide a stabilizing effect with the YEN for businesses moving forward. Initially it worked, the YEN was weakened and businesses could export cheaper as the weaker YEN created greater competitiveness. Of late this has faltered and like most economies Japan is fragile.\r\n\r\nThe debate is on regarding whether the YEN is a flight to safety currency moving forward, that aside there is NOT an infinitum amount of time for Abe. The last time Kuroda came to the markets he disappointed big time. It has taken a lot of jawboning to strengthen the YEN.\r\n\r\nJAPAN FAILURE = uncertainty.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>DONALD TRUMP – THE U.S. PRESIDENTIAL CIRCUS</li>\r\n 	<li>HOUSING BUBBLES</li>\r\n 	<li>BREXIT and UK FRAGILITY</li>\r\n 	<li>EUROZONE IMPLOSION / CONTAGION EFFECT</li>\r\n 	<li>JAPAN FAILURE</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nWe have an inter-connected world and the domino effect is real and threatening when you have as I see it so many precipice issues.\r\n\r\nIt’s all about confidence.\r\n\r\nAt the end of the day FEAR and GREED will rule as they always do.\r\n\r\nMost central banks have nothing to add should we hit a recession, which is my fear; my nightmare scenario. The kitchen sink and all fittings plus the all bathroom items and fittings have been thrown at markets to solidify and stimulate. Only the extreme unconventional measures are left, such as negative interest rates and literally the buying of stocks, as many central banks have no more bonds or fixed assets left to purchase.\r\n\r\nFrom a trading perspective there would be massive volatility, with huge worldwide implications… will my nightmare become a reality or partial reality?\r\n\r\nWill one domino fall taking the rest with it?\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBER EXCLUSIVE AREA:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>THE PREMIUM SERVICE – TRADING REVIEW:</strong>\r\n\r\nTRADING REVIEW:\r\n\r\nA great week of trading with just under 1,000 net pips added. Year to Date we now stand at over 5,500 pips. When you consider that at the end of February we were below zero, I am very happy with the turnaround.\r\n\r\nI slowed down after the FOMC minutes to let the markets consolidate. I have several fresh trades for this week based off some nice retraces last Thursday / Friday.\r\n\r\nThe “G” trades are now well off, what I would call potential entry levels. I will take a longer look at these probably after Monday’s close and re-evaluate.\r\n\r\nFrom a macro level the profit/loss ratio is good, trading with wider stops and smaller position sizes gives us greater flexibility and for the foreseeable future I see no reason to change away from this. Trading is all about the longer term and NOT high volume scalping trades, which are more risky in my opinion given the short term trading horizons.\r\n\r\nI have to get back into CHF trades sooner rather than later.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nSUBSCRIPTIONS:\r\n\r\nPricing options are now in CAD$.\r\n\r\nSILVER membership has been removed; being honest, I know a few of you have traded up, but all SILVER memberships really attracted were gamblers, who were time consuming, just looking for multiple trades per day.\r\n\r\nFrankly I want traders with me who are interested in the long-term, with steady income requirements that can supplement existing household income by being a part-time trader or those looking to develop a full-time income but being based upon longer-term horizons.\r\n\r\nThose of you who sign up, or have signed up for annual subscriptions have been raised to PLATINUM SUBSCRIBERS (the highest level of subscription). The initial benefit of this is that annual subscribers who renew for a further 12 months will receive a discount from the published price option. Currently it is CAD$1,250.00 to initially subscribe for 12 months with renewals for an annual PLATINUM subscriber at CAD$1,000.00.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>CHARTS THAT ARE ATTRACTING MY INTEREST:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDSEK-DAILY-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7936\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDSEK-DAILY-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"USDSEK DAILY 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/NZDCHF-D-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7935\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/NZDCHF-D-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"NZDCHF D 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/GBPCHF-DAILY-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7934\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/GBPCHF-DAILY-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"GBPCHF DAILY 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/EURGBP-D-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7933\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/EURGBP-D-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"EURGBP D 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/EURCHF-D-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7932\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/EURCHF-D-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"EURCHF D 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>TRADES REVIEW:</strong>\r\n\r\nThe excel spreadsheets below details current LIVE and pending LIMIT ORDER trades: -\r\n\r\n<strong><a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/LIVE-TRADES-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7917\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/LIVE-TRADES-21052016.png\" alt=\"LIVE TRADES 21052016\" width=\"796\" height=\"590\" /></a> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/LIMIT-ORDERS-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7916\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/LIMIT-ORDERS-21052016.png\" alt=\"LIMIT ORDERS 21052016\" width=\"671\" height=\"457\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> COMING UP THIS WEEK:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>THIS WEEK’S FOREX NEWS THAT INTERESTS ME:</u>\r\n\r\n(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market other than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to <a href=\"http://www.forexfactory.com\">www.forexfactory.com</a> and <a href=\"http://www.tradingeconomics.com\">www.tradingeconomics.com</a> for a more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).\r\n\r\nSUNDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: CAD – BOC Rate Statement.\r\nWEDNESDAY: NZD – Annual Budget Release.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: N/A.\r\n<u>THE USD MAJORS – MY THOUGHTS (A REVIEW): </u>\r\n\r\n(In this section I have as usual kept my charts as minimalist as possible. With regards to charting in my opinion less is more!! I hope that they are clear. All readers regardless of level of experience should be able to follow my thoughts from my comments to the levels on the charts with ease)\r\n\r\nMy comments are contained on the charts.\r\n\r\nEUR/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.1221\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/EURUSD-D-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7926\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/EURUSD-D-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"EURUSD D 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nGBP/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.4497\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/GBPUSD-D-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7927\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/GBPUSD-D-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"GBPUSD D 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nAUD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.7222\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/AUDUSD-D-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7925\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/AUDUSD-D-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"AUDUSD D 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nNZD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.6762\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/NZDUSD-D-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7928\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/NZDUSD-D-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"NZDUSD D 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.3113\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDCAD-D-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7929\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDCAD-D-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"USDCAD D 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF - Weekly Closing Price: 0.9900\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDCHF-DAILY-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7937\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDCHF-DAILY-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"USDCHF DAILY 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY - Weekly Closing Price: 110.11\r\n\r\n<u><a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDJPY-D-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7931\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDJPY-D-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"USDJPY D 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a></u>\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u>MY CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nThe FOMC drove the markets last week and the USD strengthened further on the back of a HAWKISH April meeting minutes. After, the data release we have seen to a large extent consolidation moves, which are completely normal. It is now this coming week when I will be entering back into the market once again, albeit slow and steady given all the warnings that I see that I have written about in this week’s blog.\r\n\r\nWe are light on news that interests me this week.\r\n\r\nBe prepared the BOC could cut. The wild fires around Fort McMurray will be a huge burden on the Canadian economy and I think that for once Stephen Poloz (BOC, Governor) may want to be a head of the curve. It may not happen but be ready just in case.\r\n\r\nI think that the oil price has peaked, so should the BOC cut and the oil price falls the USD/CAD could be back at 1.3600 very quickly.\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nTake care,\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n<h6>DATE: 21st May 2016\r\nBLOG REFERENCE: #103 PREMIUM SERVICE VERSION</h6>\r\n&nbsp;','THE NIGHTMARE SCENARIO','','inherit','closed','closed','','7939-revision-v1','','','2016-05-21 10:33:20','2016-05-21 15:33:20','',7939,'http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/7939-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(7941,1,'2016-05-21 10:35:20','2016-05-21 15:35:20','<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong> INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nLast week was as they say…”One helluva week”.\r\n\r\nI made the decision ahead of the FOMC minutes release to basically have a clear out of many open trades, reduce position sizes, play with stops and take pips and profits off the table. I was lucky the day coincided with another BREXIT poll. This one was mainly based around London and published in the Evening Standard newspaper the night before (for me). It was a big “remain” vote ahead of BREXIT and the cable rallied.\r\n\r\nThe cable rally helped GBP/NZD longs, EUR/GBP shorts and generally gave the FX markets a window when a sigh of relief appeared to be taken. I capitalized on these moves and took just over 1,000 pips out of the market in a couple of hours.\r\n\r\nIn fact, looking back over the past month or so, ever since I decided that TWITTER was full of bullsh*t and ego driven alleged traders with no skin in the game, which in turn, resulted in me pulling back from TWITTER on my main feed @pipaccumulator, my trading performance has improved….go figure that one?\r\n\r\nWhilst it means my exposure to new subscribers is considerably less, my trading fortunes have improved. Obviously, my brain is now in turmoil; how do I strike that balance of tweeting, adding fresh subscribers to the PREMIUM SERVICE and maintaining the run of great momentum and probability trades. That is a bottle of wine, or maybe the Jack and Diet debate that needs to be done over this weekend.\r\n\r\nNevertheless, this month so far the PREMIUM SERVICE has added 1,766 pips and year to date the total is 5,580 pips. Whilst we are not yet at the end of the month, the profit/loss ratio is great and income per trade is up. As my buddy Roger says “Happy Days!!”\r\n\r\nShifting gears…\r\n\r\nFREE PREMIUM SERVICE subscriptions, just to remind you; you could be the next winner of a free PREMIUM SERVICE subscription; if you subscribe to receive this free blog via my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nYou are automatically entered into a free monthly draw, once you’ve subscribed. Each month during 2016 one lucky blog subscriber will receive a free subscription to the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\nAs I am the UK and IRELAND in June and early July the next winner will enjoy a subscription until my summer break in mid July. The next draw after the one in a couple of weeks will then be early September after my summer break from blogging.\r\n\r\nMy plans for the short tour of the UK and IRELAND (see chart below with itinerary) are intensifying a lot more now. My power point software skills are being pushed to the limits, never mind the continual refining of the presentation content.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/TOUR-DATES-2016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7597\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/TOUR-DATES-2016.png\" alt=\"TOUR DATES 2016\" width=\"630\" height=\"397\" /></a>\r\n\r\nI hope to meet and greet many traders on this trip and I am really excited about the presentations that are scheduled. Please come along if you can and bring friends who you think may be interested in starting to trade the Forex market.\r\n\r\nSpaces are limited so to register for an event, please go to my landing page on <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> and click on LIVE EVENTS. The drop down menu there has all the information that you will require, plus the email address to use to register at to reserve a space. I would place it here but I would end up getting thousand’s of SPAM emails, which I want to avoid.\r\n\r\nPlease note that because of the TOUR, copies of this blog will have a revised format on the following dates: -\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">18<sup>th</sup> June 2016\r\n25<sup>th</sup> June 2016\r\n2<sup>nd</sup> July 2016</p>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber, fee based trade set-up option for Forex traders regardless of experience or background. I provide traders suggested trades, and some market commentary related to open trades or factors within the overall market that have my interest.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and the various trade styles plus how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nAdditional information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE you will require a credit card\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><u>PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION COSTS:</u></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Details of features and benefits of a PREMIUM SERVICE subscription can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the dropdown tab at the top of the page entitled HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE OF THE PREMIUM SERVICE. To subscribe follow the SUBSCRIBE HERE tab.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">PREMIUM SERVICE subscription costs are as follows: -</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">CAD$240.00 - 4 weeks (1 month)\r\nCAD$500.00 - 10 weeks (3 months)\r\nCAD$750.00 - 20 weeks (6 months)\r\nCAD$1,250.00 - 40 weeks (12 months)\r\n<u>PLUS</u>: Existing PLATINUM MEMBERS (annual subscribers) can re-subscribe for a further 12 months for CAD$1,000.00</p>\r\nI work for 40 weeks or so a year, the annual subscription is based on 40 published blogs of the WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU. For the remaining 12 weeks of the year, I am usually around tweeting and managing existing LIVE trades.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><u>PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE THIS MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:</u></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">NET PIPS THIS MONTH SO FAR:            +1,766\r\nNET PIPS THIS YEAR SO FAR:                +5,580</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">NET PIPS 2015:       +10,686\r\nNET PIPS 2014:       +11,209</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">(I trade basically for 10 months a year. I do not trade from mid July through early September or mid December through early January).</p>\r\nIf you want more data or detail about the performance and the tabs on my website landing page do not answer your questions, contact me directly and I will supply the trading data you require. There are NO secrets. There are many, many spreadsheets detailing performance trade by trade and by trade and by trading style, way too many to place in this blog. If you are interested in the PREMIUM SERVICE and want more information, all you have to do is ask.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>LAST WEEK’S NEWS – MY THOUGHTS:</strong>\r\n\r\nWhilst there were a few high note events and pieces of news last week, as far as I am concerned the FOMC minutes took first place and all else dropped down to the lower peg.\r\n\r\nEverything last week was really focused on would the FED mention hikes in the minutes? Without doubt, ahead of the data release, there was a coordinated\r\n\r\neffort by the FED to start talking up the possibility of a hike in June or July. Significantly, there were no comments from Janet Yellen or her boy Stanley Fischer and whilst we are really none the wiser, the market is what it is, and is starting to show a reaction to a rate hike possibility. (I am looking at this later in the blog, so I will keep my powder dry until later).\r\n\r\nThe minutes were a little HAWKISH and the USD gained strength across the board, at the moment we are consolidating that move and the prior moves of USD buying.\r\n\r\nThere are huge event risks, which I talked about a couple of weeks ago, still hanging over the markets and I believe that there is a realization that the FED needs to put something away for a rainy day given all the risks ahead and therefore the desire to hike is stronger. Yellen is a DOVE, she is not a risk taker and she is surrounded by a group of individuals, who are at times loose canons but they all fall in line when she has them in a room and they have to vote. When they are not in that room to vote they say what they want and it can be very misleading, especially as the non-voting members of the Fed can cloud the issue.\r\n\r\nSo, I am not getting carried away in any direction at the moment, other than I do think that the FED has to act sooner rather than later and the dithering of the past will just kill them moving forward if they continue with a wait and see policy. The Fed is in great danger of being behind the curve and the continued dithering causes uncertainly. Allegedly, uncertainty is one thing that the FED does not want to create. So far in my opinion, they are guilty if this.\r\n\r\nRight now, it looks like the USD is consolidating for a move higher back towards 100.00 and beyond. Lets see what happens.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>WHAT’S BIG ON MY MIND:</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>THE NIGHTMARE SCENARIO</strong></p>\r\nI trade, I blog and do my very best to provide my subscribers with trade set-ups to make them and myself a nice little income. I am now using the phrase “STEADY EDDIE” a lot as I believe it’s all about consistency and letting the trades come to you. There is little point trading for trade’s sake. It’s not my style and I believe that one should stick to one’s strengths rather than have weaknesses exposed.\r\n\r\nOver the past week or so as I analyze the geopolitical events and major monetary policy decisions that are on the horizon, I am constantly getting myself geared up for what I am calling the NIGHTMARE SCENARIO.\r\n\r\nI am of the opinion that we are heading feet first into a full-blown recession, eyes open and there seems to be an atmosphere around of complacency that all economic matters in the world, whilst not perfect are moving along slowly but in the right direction.\r\n\r\nAs stated I think a little differently. I believe we are on the brink of recession in Canada, the USA, the UK and the rest of Europe and probably Japan as well. I know people will quote government economic data, I believe a lot of this data is massaged to the extent that at times it seems to be detached from reality on the ground in Main Street.\r\n\r\nEverything for me is based around simplicity, why over-complicate matters. Over complication creates misleading interpretation, which, in my opinion, leads to further complication and I strongly believe that this was at the core of the securitization issues that led to the 2007-8 financial crash.\r\n\r\nWe are at the precipice at the moment with so many economies around the world. One jitter, one bad move and like a house of cards it all falls down.\r\n\r\nLet me elaborate…\r\n\r\nRightly or wrongly, it’s my blog and I can what I want.\r\n\r\nKeeping it really simple, I believe that housing is about 75-85% of the catalyst for everything in an economy. It is the circle from which it all happens, employment, wages the lot.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>If the housing market is moving, people are always doing home improvements or buying goods, equipment and services.</li>\r\n 	<li>Contractors are always busy and small business grows.</li>\r\n 	<li>People are hired and wages improve.</li>\r\n 	<li>The tax intake for an economy improves through both direct and indirect taxes.</li>\r\n 	<li>Local economies expand as local councils/towns invest in infrastructure and services.</li>\r\n 	<li>Central government invests in infrastructure and grand projects.</li>\r\n 	<li>Bank lending expands and businesses grow and have expansion plans.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nWe are not really getting this. As soon as you see green shoots of growth we are brought back to earth with a bang, as bad news always seems to follow good news these days… why is this?\r\n\r\nYes, I believe that the FED dithered in 2015 and missed the moment. Janet Yellen had to raise rates in December 2015 to save face.\r\n\r\nYes, I believe that the German approach of Austerity has set back the EUROZONE economically for decades. The handling of the GREECE debt is a disgrace. The constant refusal to offer debt relief to a country that has more chance, of launching a space program, and being the first to have a man on Mars, than repay its loans before ARMAGEDDON hits, beggars belief.\r\n\r\nYes, I believe that market correlations are so inter-twinned now that we are very quickly approaching the “one world – one market” scenario. Many might argue to a large extent we are already there.\r\n\r\nYes, I also believe that to a very large extent central banks are now largely emasculated. I was and still am, undecided 100%... (do you feel my indecision?) on the side that Central Bank monetary policy is the biggest factor in price movement in the currency markets. Yet, I believe that we have come to the end of the road regarding fiscal initiatives and structural reforms are now required. The markets are now immune to a large extent with the CURRENCY WARS. Previous moves after central bank policy initiatives by the BOJ and ECB highlight this point perfectly.\r\n\r\nFor nearly my entire trading career, all I have heard month after month are central bank governors or presidents stating that they are not achieving their growth GDP objectives. They reset the poorly set out goals to lower levels and then stretch out the timeline to meet these goals which are still NEVER achieved. This happens every few months from every central bank.\r\n\r\nCentral banks want inflation. They are just not getting it. In fact we have had more DEFLATION than INFLATION in the last 10 years. All central banks do is set targets to please I do not know who, they fail to meet these and they do a reset and push out… We need structural reforms within governments.\r\n\r\nPoliticians will not commit. They are scared sh**less at the thought. Politicians are only interested in popularity; they have a four-year time line that’s all.\r\n\r\nBack to my nightmare….\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>DONALD TRUMP – THE U.S. PRESIDENTIAL CIRCUS</li>\r\n 	<li>HOUSING BUBBLES</li>\r\n 	<li>BREXIT and UK FRAGILITY</li>\r\n 	<li>EUROZONE IMPLOSION / CONTAGION EFFECT</li>\r\n 	<li>JAPAN FAILURE</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nIf the opening paragraphs weren’t enough to keep me 24 x 5 at my screens, trading those 5 sub titles above will do just that.\r\n\r\nDONALD TRUMP – THE U.S. PRESIDENTIAL CIRCUS:\r\n\r\nHe’s probably a very nice and interesting guy. He is a salesman, he is used to getting his own way and I totally get why American voters who have been kept in check, ruled by fear for so long see THE DONALD as a breath of fresh air. They are buying a promise that TRUMP will sort out the paralysis party divide driven Washington club that is only interested in themselves and their party with two fingers raised to the electorate that elected them….. I get it.\r\n\r\nThe elitism of Washington and failed leaders from the past who were never able to get a political union to pass key policies has caught up with the nations capital. It has been seen as dysfunctional and heartless in the past, a change is coming sooner or later. Whether you like THE DONALD or not, he has changed the face of U.S. politics, it is a reality show on TV and the media who are just as big dinosaurs as Washington, were caught off guard and simply did not know how to react. The media in the U.S. is bought off just like Oil and Pharmaceuticals. The media had to shift gear as they were seen to be biased which we all know they are, but they have to attempt to hide that bias.\r\n\r\nTHE DONALD shake up, should he be elected in November will in my opinion cause a stock market sell off. There will be so much uncertainty. Even now as the presumptive nominee, he keeps away from policy in preference to personal attacks, and politicians not being the brightest cannot see through this and attack back. In this game THE DONALD has better than a 50-50 chance of a win.\r\n\r\nTHE DONALD &amp; THE U.S. PRESIDENTIAL CIRCUS = uncertainty.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nHOUSING BUBBLES:\r\n\r\nWhilst we are bouncing off the bottom economically all over the world certain pockets, mainly capital and major cities such as LONDON, SYDNEY, AUCKLAND, TORONTO, VANCOUVER, SAN FRANCISCO, NEW YORK etc. have housing bubbles and prices are skyrocketing. Central banks and governments want to manage this and not fuel the bubbles, but the balancing act they are required to perform in relation to less well-off parts of their country is a difficult one.\r\n\r\nWe are one geopolitical event away from a HOUSING CRASH as a bubble bursts; will this be another “House of Cards”?\r\n\r\nRemember in the currency wars, lower interest rates are seen as key. Lower interest rates will only fuel local housing bubbles.\r\n\r\nHOUSING BUBBLES = uncertainty.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nBREXIT:\r\n\r\nThere is a belief that at the end of the day a “Better the devil you know than the devil you don’t” approach to voting IN or OUT will apply in the UK. I am now reading articles telling me that educated people want to REMAIN and the less well educated want a BREXIT.\r\n\r\nIn 2016, isn’t it just great the way we pigeon hole and pre-judge facts. Frankly, whilst it is relatively straightforward to put an X in a box to stay or go, it’s not that simple.\r\n\r\nAs the TV debates happen the facts will come out and more of a balanced discussion can take place. The media in the UK is the same as the U.S., largely it is biased and very opinionated and whilst voting habits will be directed by what channel and what newspaper you read, nearly all decisions in the UK fall in the hands of the 10-15% floating voter. Are these people well educated or not well educated, I doubt all the research in the world could answer this.\r\n\r\nIn addition, the polls got the Scottish referendum and the UK election that followed arseways, so I for one would not be beholden to a UK poll result.\r\n\r\nI am not 100% convinced on all the facts that I am told to believe about the merits of a REMAIN or BREXIT vote. More debate is definitely required, and more qualification of the alleged facts. This is NOT a done deal as we are led to believe, it is complicated.\r\n\r\nLet me give you one fact that I am hearing that I have yet to read about; tradesmen in the UK are really pissed off with the freedom of employment policy within the EUROPEAN UNION. From distressed markets in mainland Europe, tradesman come to the UK, to set up, it’s all above board. However, as a result of even greater competition in an already distressed UK market they squeeze margins that are already tight. The trade unions are NOT happy; never mind your local plumber, electrician, builder etc. These people account for a huge number of voters especially when you add in families etc. I am told that the building / home improvement industry is virtually BREXIT committed.\r\n\r\nRemember Mark Carney BOE governor, with his failed forward guidance policy for the markets. His forward guidance was totally 100% market misleading. The classic being, when unemployment fell to 7% that was Carney’s original trigger to raise rates. Unemployment is now at 5% and the BOE is talking more about DOVISH policies rather than HAWKISH.\r\n\r\nDavid Cameron (Prime Minister) talks about how good the UK economy is yet here we are still on the bottom, no movement, what is wrong?\r\n\r\nAre all the statistics that we are given to measure performance by, so manipulated through years of massaging that they do not adequately reflect a true position anymore?\r\n\r\nAm I such a cynic to believe that as governments receive the true data, they hide away from the public eye and spend their days popping Prozac and hiding under their desks? Politicians lie and they mislead to maintain popularity and votes…there are “LYIN’ TEDS” everywhere around the globe!!\r\n\r\nBREXIT and UK FRAGILITY = uncertainty.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nEUROZONE IMPLOSION / CONTAGION EFFECT:\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, the EUROZONE is still very fragile and one step from dropping off the cliff. The refugee crisis, GREECE, unemployment, DEFLATION and a UK BREXIT… take your pick.\r\n\r\nMario Draghi (ECB, President) has gone as far as he can, the markets have basically told him to feck off. He has NO bullets, NO bazookas left.\r\n\r\n27 countries in the EUROZONE need to implement major structural reforms to improve and bring back growth to the stagnating economies. As I wrote before, there is more chance of GREECE winning the space race to Mars.\r\n\r\nWhat happens should a BREXIT vote prevail in the UK? I am of the opinion that many of the EUROZONE populist parties are ready, waiting and watching ready to capitalize, such as: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>GERMANY:                 Alternative for Germany</li>\r\n 	<li>FRANCE:                     National Front</li>\r\n 	<li>ITALY:                          Five Stars</li>\r\n 	<li>SPAIN:                         Podermos</li>\r\n 	<li>NETHERLANDS:      Party for Freedom</li>\r\n 	<li>AUSTRIA:                   Austrian Freedom Party</li>\r\n 	<li>FINLAND:                  Finns Party</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nOn Friday last week I noticed a great quote from Jeroen Dijsselbloem, leader of the EUROZONE Finance Ministers, it said “FX intervention to improve competitive unwise”. Holy Mother of God what rock has he been hiding under.\r\n\r\nEUROZONE IMPLOSION / CONTAGION EFFECT = uncertainty.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nJAPAN FAILS:\r\n\r\nFrom the country that has the largest QE and QQE program ever, we still have problems. Reputations are on the line, Abe (Prime Minister) and Kuroda (BOJ); are for want of a better phrase looking down the barrel of a shotgun.\r\n\r\nWe are now a couple of years or so into Abe’s policy initiatives to bring Japan out of recession, stimulate growth and provide a stabilizing effect with the YEN for businesses moving forward. Initially it worked, the YEN was weakened and businesses could export cheaper as the weaker YEN created greater competitiveness. Of late this has faltered and like most economies Japan is fragile.\r\n\r\nThe debate is on regarding whether the YEN is a flight to safety currency moving forward, that aside there is NOT an infinitum amount of time for Abe. The last time Kuroda came to the markets he disappointed big time. It has taken a lot of jawboning to strengthen the YEN.\r\n\r\nJAPAN FAILURE = uncertainty.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>DONALD TRUMP – THE U.S. PRESIDENTIAL CIRCUS</li>\r\n 	<li>HOUSING BUBBLES</li>\r\n 	<li>BREXIT and UK FRAGILITY</li>\r\n 	<li>EUROZONE IMPLOSION / CONTAGION EFFECT</li>\r\n 	<li>JAPAN FAILURE</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nWe have an inter-connected world and the domino effect is real and threatening when you have as I see it so many precipice issues.\r\n\r\nIt’s all about confidence.\r\n\r\nAt the end of the day FEAR and GREED will rule as they always do.\r\n\r\nMost central banks have nothing to add should we hit a recession, which is my fear; my nightmare scenario. The kitchen sink and all fittings plus the all bathroom items and fittings have been thrown at markets to solidify and stimulate. Only the extreme unconventional measures are left, such as negative interest rates and literally the buying of stocks, as many central banks have no more bonds or fixed assets left to purchase.\r\n\r\nFrom a trading perspective there would be massive volatility, with huge worldwide implications… will my nightmare become a reality or partial reality?\r\n\r\nWill one domino fall taking the rest with it?\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBER EXCLUSIVE AREA:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>THE PREMIUM SERVICE – TRADING REVIEW:</strong>\r\n\r\nTRADING REVIEW:\r\n\r\nA great week of trading with just under 1,000 net pips added. Year to Date we now stand at over 5,500 pips. When you consider that at the end of February we were below zero, I am very happy with the turnaround.\r\n\r\nI slowed down after the FOMC minutes to let the markets consolidate. I have several fresh trades for this week based off some nice retraces last Thursday / Friday.\r\n\r\nThe “G” trades are now well off, what I would call potential entry levels. I will take a longer look at these probably after Monday’s close and re-evaluate.\r\n\r\nFrom a macro level the profit/loss ratio is good, trading with wider stops and smaller position sizes gives us greater flexibility and for the foreseeable future I see no reason to change away from this. Trading is all about the longer term and NOT high volume scalping trades, which are more risky in my opinion given the short term trading horizons.\r\n\r\nI have to get back into CHF trades sooner rather than later.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nSUBSCRIPTIONS:\r\n\r\nPricing options are now in CAD$.\r\n\r\nSILVER membership has been removed; being honest, I know a few of you have traded up, but all SILVER memberships really attracted were gamblers, who were time consuming, just looking for multiple trades per day.\r\n\r\nFrankly I want traders with me who are interested in the long-term, with steady income requirements that can supplement existing household income by being a part-time trader or those looking to develop a full-time income but being based upon longer-term horizons.\r\n\r\nThose of you who sign up, or have signed up for annual subscriptions have been raised to PLATINUM SUBSCRIBERS (the highest level of subscription). The initial benefit of this is that annual subscribers who renew for a further 12 months will receive a discount from the published price option. Currently it is CAD$1,250.00 to initially subscribe for 12 months with renewals for an annual PLATINUM subscriber at CAD$1,000.00.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>CHARTS THAT ARE ATTRACTING MY INTEREST:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDSEK-DAILY-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7936\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDSEK-DAILY-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"USDSEK DAILY 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/NZDCHF-D-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7935\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/NZDCHF-D-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"NZDCHF D 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/GBPCHF-DAILY-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7934\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/GBPCHF-DAILY-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"GBPCHF DAILY 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/EURGBP-D-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7933\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/EURGBP-D-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"EURGBP D 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/EURCHF-D-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7932\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/EURCHF-D-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"EURCHF D 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>TRADES REVIEW:</strong>\r\n\r\nThe excel spreadsheets below details current LIVE and pending LIMIT ORDER trades: -\r\n\r\n<strong><a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/LIVE-TRADES-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7917\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/LIVE-TRADES-21052016.png\" alt=\"LIVE TRADES 21052016\" width=\"796\" height=\"590\" /></a> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/LIMIT-ORDERS-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7916\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/LIMIT-ORDERS-21052016.png\" alt=\"LIMIT ORDERS 21052016\" width=\"671\" height=\"457\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> COMING UP THIS WEEK:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>THIS WEEK’S FOREX NEWS THAT INTERESTS ME:</u>\r\n\r\n(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market other than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to <a href=\"http://www.forexfactory.com\">www.forexfactory.com</a> and <a href=\"http://www.tradingeconomics.com\">www.tradingeconomics.com</a> for a more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).\r\n\r\nSUNDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: CAD – BOC Rate Statement.\r\nWEDNESDAY: NZD – Annual Budget Release.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: N/A.\r\n<u>THE USD MAJORS – MY THOUGHTS (A REVIEW): </u>\r\n\r\n(In this section I have as usual kept my charts as minimalist as possible. With regards to charting in my opinion less is more!! I hope that they are clear. All readers regardless of level of experience should be able to follow my thoughts from my comments to the levels on the charts with ease)\r\n\r\nMy comments are contained on the charts.\r\n\r\nEUR/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.1221\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/EURUSD-D-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7926\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/EURUSD-D-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"EURUSD D 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nGBP/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.4497\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/GBPUSD-D-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7927\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/GBPUSD-D-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"GBPUSD D 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nAUD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.7222\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/AUDUSD-D-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7925\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/AUDUSD-D-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"AUDUSD D 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nNZD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.6762\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/NZDUSD-D-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7928\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/NZDUSD-D-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"NZDUSD D 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.3113\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDCAD-D-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7929\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDCAD-D-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"USDCAD D 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF - Weekly Closing Price: 0.9900\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDCHF-DAILY-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7937\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDCHF-DAILY-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"USDCHF DAILY 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY - Weekly Closing Price: 110.11\r\n\r\n<u><a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDJPY-D-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7931\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDJPY-D-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"USDJPY D 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a></u>\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u>MY CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nThe FOMC drove the markets last week and the USD strengthened further on the back of a HAWKISH April meeting minutes. After, the data release we have seen to a large extent consolidation moves, which are completely normal. It is now this coming week when I will be entering back into the market once again, albeit slow and steady given all the warnings that I see that I have written about in this week’s blog.\r\n\r\nWe are light on news that interests me this week.\r\n\r\nBe prepared the BOC could cut. The wild fires around Fort McMurray will be a huge burden on the Canadian economy and I think that for once Stephen Poloz (BOC, Governor) may want to be a head of the curve. It may not happen but be ready just in case.\r\n\r\nI think that the oil price has peaked, so should the BOC cut and the oil price falls the USD/CAD could be back at 1.3600 very quickly.\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nTake care,\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n<h6>DATE: 21st May 2016\r\nBLOG REFERENCE: #103 PREMIUM SERVICE VERSION</h6>\r\n&nbsp;','THE NIGHTMARE SCENARIO','','inherit','closed','closed','','7939-revision-v1','','','2016-05-21 10:35:20','2016-05-21 15:35:20','',7939,'http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/7939-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(7942,1,'2016-05-21 10:35:49','2016-05-21 15:35:49','<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong> INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nLast week was as they say…”One helluva week”.\r\n\r\nI made the decision ahead of the FOMC minutes release to basically have a clear out of many open trades, reduce position sizes, play with stops and take pips and profits off the table. I was lucky the day coincided with another BREXIT poll. This one was mainly based around London and published in the Evening Standard newspaper the night before (for me). It was a big “remain” vote ahead of BREXIT and the cable rallied.\r\n\r\nThe cable rally helped GBP/NZD longs, EUR/GBP shorts and generally gave the FX markets a window when a sigh of relief appeared to be taken. I capitalized on these moves and took just over 1,000 pips out of the market in a couple of hours.\r\n\r\nIn fact, looking back over the past month or so, ever since I decided that TWITTER was full of bullsh*t and ego driven alleged traders with no skin in the game, which in turn, resulted in me pulling back from TWITTER on my main feed @pipaccumulator, my trading performance has improved….go figure that one?\r\n\r\nWhilst it means my exposure to new subscribers is considerably less, my trading fortunes have improved. Obviously, my brain is now in turmoil; how do I strike that balance of tweeting, adding fresh subscribers to the PREMIUM SERVICE and maintaining the run of great momentum and probability trades. That is a bottle of wine, or maybe the Jack and Diet debate that needs to be done over this weekend.\r\n\r\nNevertheless, this month so far the PREMIUM SERVICE has added 1,766 pips and year to date the total is 5,580 pips. Whilst we are not yet at the end of the month, the profit/loss ratio is great and income per trade is up. As my buddy Roger says “Happy Days!!”\r\n\r\nShifting gears…\r\n\r\nFREE PREMIUM SERVICE subscriptions, just to remind you; you could be the next winner of a free PREMIUM SERVICE subscription; if you subscribe to receive this free blog via my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nYou are automatically entered into a free monthly draw, once you’ve subscribed. Each month during 2016 one lucky blog subscriber will receive a free subscription to the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\nAs I am the UK and IRELAND in June and early July the next winner will enjoy a subscription until my summer break in mid July. The next draw after the one in a couple of weeks will then be early September after my summer break from blogging.\r\n\r\nMy plans for the short tour of the UK and IRELAND (see chart below with itinerary) are intensifying a lot more now. My power point software skills are being pushed to the limits, never mind the continual refining of the presentation content.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/TOUR-DATES-2016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7597\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/TOUR-DATES-2016.png\" alt=\"TOUR DATES 2016\" width=\"630\" height=\"397\" /></a>\r\n\r\nI hope to meet and greet many traders on this trip and I am really excited about the presentations that are scheduled. Please come along if you can and bring friends who you think may be interested in starting to trade the Forex market.\r\n\r\nSpaces are limited so to register for an event, please go to my landing page on <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> and click on LIVE EVENTS. The drop down menu there has all the information that you will require, plus the email address to use to register at to reserve a space. I would place it here but I would end up getting thousand’s of SPAM emails, which I want to avoid.\r\n\r\nPlease note that because of the TOUR, copies of this blog will have a revised format on the following dates: -\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">18<sup>th</sup> June 2016\r\n25<sup>th</sup> June 2016\r\n2<sup>nd</sup> July 2016</p>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber, fee based trade set-up option for Forex traders regardless of experience or background. I provide traders suggested trades, and some market commentary related to open trades or factors within the overall market that have my interest.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and the various trade styles plus how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nAdditional information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE you will require a credit card\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><u>PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION COSTS:</u></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Details of features and benefits of a PREMIUM SERVICE subscription can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the dropdown tab at the top of the page entitled HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE OF THE PREMIUM SERVICE. To subscribe follow the SUBSCRIBE HERE tab.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">PREMIUM SERVICE subscription costs are as follows: -</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">CAD$240.00 - 4 weeks (1 month)\r\nCAD$500.00 - 10 weeks (3 months)\r\nCAD$750.00 - 20 weeks (6 months)\r\nCAD$1,250.00 - 40 weeks (12 months)\r\n<u>PLUS</u>: Existing PLATINUM MEMBERS (annual subscribers) can re-subscribe for a further 12 months for CAD$1,000.00</p>\r\nI work for 40 weeks or so a year, the annual subscription is based on 40 published blogs of the WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU. For the remaining 12 weeks of the year, I am usually around tweeting and managing existing LIVE trades.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><u>PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE THIS MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:</u></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">NET PIPS THIS MONTH SO FAR:            +1,766\r\nNET PIPS THIS YEAR SO FAR:                +5,580</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">NET PIPS 2015:       +10,686\r\nNET PIPS 2014:       +11,209</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">(I trade basically for 10 months a year. I do not trade from mid July through early September or mid December through early January).</p>\r\nIf you want more data or detail about the performance and the tabs on my website landing page do not answer your questions, contact me directly and I will supply the trading data you require. There are NO secrets. There are many, many spreadsheets detailing performance trade by trade and by trade and by trading style, way too many to place in this blog. If you are interested in the PREMIUM SERVICE and want more information, all you have to do is ask.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>LAST WEEK’S NEWS – MY THOUGHTS:</strong>\r\n\r\nWhilst there were a few high note events and pieces of news last week, as far as I am concerned the FOMC minutes took first place and all else dropped down to the lower peg.\r\n\r\nEverything last week was really focused on would the FED mention hikes in the minutes? Without doubt, ahead of the data release, there was a coordinated\r\n\r\neffort by the FED to start talking up the possibility of a hike in June or July. Significantly, there were no comments from Janet Yellen or her boy Stanley Fischer and whilst we are really none the wiser, the market is what it is, and is starting to show a reaction to a rate hike possibility. (I am looking at this later in the blog, so I will keep my powder dry until later).\r\n\r\nThe minutes were a little HAWKISH and the USD gained strength across the board, at the moment we are consolidating that move and the prior moves of USD buying.\r\n\r\nThere are huge event risks, which I talked about a couple of weeks ago, still hanging over the markets and I believe that there is a realization that the FED needs to put something away for a rainy day given all the risks ahead and therefore the desire to hike is stronger. Yellen is a DOVE, she is not a risk taker and she is surrounded by a group of individuals, who are at times loose canons but they all fall in line when she has them in a room and they have to vote. When they are not in that room to vote they say what they want and it can be very misleading, especially as the non-voting members of the Fed can cloud the issue.\r\n\r\nSo, I am not getting carried away in any direction at the moment, other than I do think that the FED has to act sooner rather than later and the dithering of the past will just kill them moving forward if they continue with a wait and see policy. The Fed is in great danger of being behind the curve and the continued dithering causes uncertainly. Allegedly, uncertainty is one thing that the FED does not want to create. So far in my opinion, they are guilty if this.\r\n\r\nRight now, it looks like the USD is consolidating for a move higher back towards 100.00 and beyond. Lets see what happens.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>WHAT’S BIG ON MY MIND:</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>THE NIGHTMARE SCENARIO</strong></p>\r\nI trade, I blog and do my very best to provide my subscribers with trade set-ups to make them and myself a nice little income. I am now using the phrase “STEADY EDDIE” a lot as I believe it’s all about consistency and letting the trades come to you. There is little point trading for trade’s sake. It’s not my style and I believe that one should stick to one’s strengths rather than have weaknesses exposed.\r\n\r\nOver the past week or so as I analyze the geopolitical events and major monetary policy decisions that are on the horizon, I am constantly getting myself geared up for what I am calling the NIGHTMARE SCENARIO.\r\n\r\nI am of the opinion that we are heading feet first into a full-blown recession, eyes open and there seems to be an atmosphere around of complacency that all economic matters in the world, whilst not perfect are moving along slowly but in the right direction.\r\n\r\nAs stated I think a little differently. I believe we are on the brink of recession in Canada, the USA, the UK and the rest of Europe and probably Japan as well. I know people will quote government economic data, I believe a lot of this data is massaged to the extent that at times it seems to be detached from reality on the ground in Main Street.\r\n\r\nEverything for me is based around simplicity, why over-complicate matters. Over complication creates misleading interpretation, which, in my opinion, leads to further complication and I strongly believe that this was at the core of the securitization issues that led to the 2007-8 financial crash.\r\n\r\nWe are at the precipice at the moment with so many economies around the world. One jitter, one bad move and like a house of cards it all falls down.\r\n\r\nLet me elaborate…\r\n\r\nRightly or wrongly, it’s my blog and I can what I want.\r\n\r\nKeeping it really simple, I believe that housing is about 75-85% of the catalyst for everything in an economy. It is the circle from which it all happens, employment, wages the lot.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>If the housing market is moving, people are always doing home improvements or buying goods, equipment and services.</li>\r\n 	<li>Contractors are always busy and small business grows.</li>\r\n 	<li>People are hired and wages improve.</li>\r\n 	<li>The tax intake for an economy improves through both direct and indirect taxes.</li>\r\n 	<li>Local economies expand as local councils/towns invest in infrastructure and services.</li>\r\n 	<li>Central government invests in infrastructure and grand projects.</li>\r\n 	<li>Bank lending expands and businesses grow and have expansion plans.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nWe are not really getting this. As soon as you see green shoots of growth we are brought back to earth with a bang, as bad news always seems to follow good news these days… why is this?\r\n\r\nYes, I believe that the FED dithered in 2015 and missed the moment. Janet Yellen had to raise rates in December 2015 to save face.\r\n\r\nYes, I believe that the German approach of Austerity has set back the EUROZONE economically for decades. The handling of the GREECE debt is a disgrace. The constant refusal to offer debt relief to a country that has more chance, of launching a space program, and being the first to have a man on Mars, than repay its loans before ARMAGEDDON hits, beggars belief.\r\n\r\nYes, I believe that market correlations are so inter-twinned now that we are very quickly approaching the “one world – one market” scenario. Many might argue to a large extent we are already there.\r\n\r\nYes, I also believe that to a very large extent central banks are now largely emasculated. I was and still am, undecided 100%... (do you feel my indecision?) on the side that Central Bank monetary policy is the biggest factor in price movement in the currency markets. Yet, I believe that we have come to the end of the road regarding fiscal initiatives and structural reforms are now required. The markets are now immune to a large extent with the CURRENCY WARS. Previous moves after central bank policy initiatives by the BOJ and ECB highlight this point perfectly.\r\n\r\nFor nearly my entire trading career, all I have heard month after month are central bank governors or presidents stating that they are not achieving their growth GDP objectives. They reset the poorly set out goals to lower levels and then stretch out the timeline to meet these goals which are still NEVER achieved. This happens every few months from every central bank.\r\n\r\nCentral banks want inflation. They are just not getting it. In fact we have had more DEFLATION than INFLATION in the last 10 years. All central banks do is set targets to please I do not know who, they fail to meet these and they do a reset and push out… We need structural reforms within governments.\r\n\r\nPoliticians will not commit. They are scared sh**less at the thought. Politicians are only interested in popularity; they have a four-year time line that’s all.\r\n\r\nBack to my nightmare….\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>DONALD TRUMP – THE U.S. PRESIDENTIAL CIRCUS</li>\r\n 	<li>HOUSING BUBBLES</li>\r\n 	<li>BREXIT and UK FRAGILITY</li>\r\n 	<li>EUROZONE IMPLOSION / CONTAGION EFFECT</li>\r\n 	<li>JAPAN FAILURE</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nIf the opening paragraphs weren’t enough to keep me 24 x 5 at my screens, trading those 5 sub titles above will do just that.\r\n\r\nDONALD TRUMP – THE U.S. PRESIDENTIAL CIRCUS:\r\n\r\nHe’s probably a very nice and interesting guy. He is a salesman, he is used to getting his own way and I totally get why American voters who have been kept in check, ruled by fear for so long see THE DONALD as a breath of fresh air. They are buying a promise that TRUMP will sort out the paralysis party divide driven Washington club that is only interested in themselves and their party with two fingers raised to the electorate that elected them….. I get it.\r\n\r\nThe elitism of Washington and failed leaders from the past who were never able to get a political union to pass key policies has caught up with the nations capital. It has been seen as dysfunctional and heartless in the past, a change is coming sooner or later. Whether you like THE DONALD or not, he has changed the face of U.S. politics, it is a reality show on TV and the media who are just as big dinosaurs as Washington, were caught off guard and simply did not know how to react. The media in the U.S. is bought off just like Oil and Pharmaceuticals. The media had to shift gear as they were seen to be biased which we all know they are, but they have to attempt to hide that bias.\r\n\r\nTHE DONALD shake up, should he be elected in November will in my opinion cause a stock market sell off. There will be so much uncertainty. Even now as the presumptive nominee, he keeps away from policy in preference to personal attacks, and politicians not being the brightest cannot see through this and attack back. In this game THE DONALD has better than a 50-50 chance of a win.\r\n\r\nTHE DONALD &amp; THE U.S. PRESIDENTIAL CIRCUS = uncertainty.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nHOUSING BUBBLES:\r\n\r\nWhilst we are bouncing off the bottom economically all over the world certain pockets, mainly capital and major cities such as LONDON, SYDNEY, AUCKLAND, TORONTO, VANCOUVER, SAN FRANCISCO, NEW YORK etc. have housing bubbles and prices are skyrocketing. Central banks and governments want to manage this and not fuel the bubbles, but the balancing act they are required to perform in relation to less well-off parts of their country is a difficult one.\r\n\r\nWe are one geopolitical event away from a HOUSING CRASH as a bubble bursts; will this be another “House of Cards”?\r\n\r\nRemember in the currency wars, lower interest rates are seen as key. Lower interest rates will only fuel local housing bubbles.\r\n\r\nHOUSING BUBBLES = uncertainty.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nBREXIT:\r\n\r\nThere is a belief that at the end of the day a “Better the devil you know than the devil you don’t” approach to voting IN or OUT will apply in the UK. I am now reading articles telling me that educated people want to REMAIN and the less well educated want a BREXIT.\r\n\r\nIn 2016, isn’t it just great the way we pigeon hole and pre-judge facts. Frankly, whilst it is relatively straightforward to put an X in a box to stay or go, it’s not that simple.\r\n\r\nAs the TV debates happen the facts will come out and more of a balanced discussion can take place. The media in the UK is the same as the U.S., largely it is biased and very opinionated and whilst voting habits will be directed by what channel and what newspaper you read, nearly all decisions in the UK fall in the hands of the 10-15% floating voter. Are these people well educated or not well educated, I doubt all the research in the world could answer this.\r\n\r\nIn addition, the polls got the Scottish referendum and the UK election that followed arseways, so I for one would not be beholden to a UK poll result.\r\n\r\nI am not 100% convinced on all the facts that I am told to believe about the merits of a REMAIN or BREXIT vote. More debate is definitely required, and more qualification of the alleged facts. This is NOT a done deal as we are led to believe, it is complicated.\r\n\r\nLet me give you one fact that I am hearing that I have yet to read about; tradesmen in the UK are really pissed off with the freedom of employment policy within the EUROPEAN UNION. From distressed markets in mainland Europe, tradesman come to the UK, to set up, it’s all above board. However, as a result of even greater competition in an already distressed UK market they squeeze margins that are already tight. The trade unions are NOT happy; never mind your local plumber, electrician, builder etc. These people account for a huge number of voters especially when you add in families etc. I am told that the building / home improvement industry is virtually BREXIT committed.\r\n\r\nRemember Mark Carney BOE governor, with his failed forward guidance policy for the markets. His forward guidance was totally 100% market misleading. The classic being, when unemployment fell to 7% that was Carney’s original trigger to raise rates. Unemployment is now at 5% and the BOE is talking more about DOVISH policies rather than HAWKISH.\r\n\r\nDavid Cameron (Prime Minister) talks about how good the UK economy is yet here we are still on the bottom, no movement, what is wrong?\r\n\r\nAre all the statistics that we are given to measure performance by, so manipulated through years of massaging that they do not adequately reflect a true position anymore?\r\n\r\nAm I such a cynic to believe that as governments receive the true data, they hide away from the public eye and spend their days popping Prozac and hiding under their desks? Politicians lie and they mislead to maintain popularity and votes…there are “LYIN’ TEDS” everywhere around the globe!!\r\n\r\nBREXIT and UK FRAGILITY = uncertainty.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nEUROZONE IMPLOSION / CONTAGION EFFECT:\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, the EUROZONE is still very fragile and one step from dropping off the cliff. The refugee crisis, GREECE, unemployment, DEFLATION and a UK BREXIT… take your pick.\r\n\r\nMario Draghi (ECB, President) has gone as far as he can, the markets have basically told him to feck off. He has NO bullets, NO bazookas left.\r\n\r\n27 countries in the EUROZONE need to implement major structural reforms to improve and bring back growth to the stagnating economies. As I wrote before, there is more chance of GREECE winning the space race to Mars.\r\n\r\nWhat happens should a BREXIT vote prevail in the UK? I am of the opinion that many of the EUROZONE populist parties are ready, waiting and watching ready to capitalize, such as: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>GERMANY:                 Alternative for Germany</li>\r\n 	<li>FRANCE:                     National Front</li>\r\n 	<li>ITALY:                          Five Stars</li>\r\n 	<li>SPAIN:                         Podermos</li>\r\n 	<li>NETHERLANDS:      Party for Freedom</li>\r\n 	<li>AUSTRIA:                   Austrian Freedom Party</li>\r\n 	<li>FINLAND:                  Finns Party</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nOn Friday last week I noticed a great quote from Jeroen Dijsselbloem, leader of the EUROZONE Finance Ministers, it said “FX intervention to improve competitive unwise”. Holy Mother of God what rock has he been hiding under.\r\n\r\nEUROZONE IMPLOSION / CONTAGION EFFECT = uncertainty.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nJAPAN FAILS:\r\n\r\nFrom the country that has the largest QE and QQE program ever, we still have problems. Reputations are on the line, Abe (Prime Minister) and Kuroda (BOJ); are for want of a better phrase looking down the barrel of a shotgun.\r\n\r\nWe are now a couple of years or so into Abe’s policy initiatives to bring Japan out of recession, stimulate growth and provide a stabilizing effect with the YEN for businesses moving forward. Initially it worked, the YEN was weakened and businesses could export cheaper as the weaker YEN created greater competitiveness. Of late this has faltered and like most economies Japan is fragile.\r\n\r\nThe debate is on regarding whether the YEN is a flight to safety currency moving forward, that aside there is NOT an infinitum amount of time for Abe. The last time Kuroda came to the markets he disappointed big time. It has taken a lot of jawboning to strengthen the YEN.\r\n\r\nJAPAN FAILURE = uncertainty.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>DONALD TRUMP – THE U.S. PRESIDENTIAL CIRCUS</li>\r\n 	<li>HOUSING BUBBLES</li>\r\n 	<li>BREXIT and UK FRAGILITY</li>\r\n 	<li>EUROZONE IMPLOSION / CONTAGION EFFECT</li>\r\n 	<li>JAPAN FAILURE</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nWe have an inter-connected world and the domino effect is real and threatening when you have as I see it so many precipice issues.\r\n\r\nIt’s all about confidence.\r\n\r\nAt the end of the day FEAR and GREED will rule as they always do.\r\n\r\nMost central banks have nothing to add should we hit a recession, which is my fear; my nightmare scenario. The kitchen sink and all fittings plus the all bathroom items and fittings have been thrown at markets to solidify and stimulate. Only the extreme unconventional measures are left, such as negative interest rates and literally the buying of stocks, as many central banks have no more bonds or fixed assets left to purchase.\r\n\r\nFrom a trading perspective there would be massive volatility, with huge worldwide implications… will my nightmare become a reality or partial reality?\r\n\r\nWill one domino fall taking the rest with it?\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBER EXCLUSIVE AREA:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>THE PREMIUM SERVICE – TRADING REVIEW:</strong>\r\n\r\nTRADING REVIEW:\r\n\r\nA great week of trading with just under 1,000 net pips added. Year to Date we now stand at over 5,500 pips. When you consider that at the end of February we were below zero, I am very happy with the turnaround.\r\n\r\nI slowed down after the FOMC minutes to let the markets consolidate. I have several fresh trades for this week based off some nice retraces last Thursday / Friday.\r\n\r\nThe “G” trades are now well off, what I would call potential entry levels. I will take a longer look at these probably after Monday’s close and re-evaluate.\r\n\r\nFrom a macro level the profit/loss ratio is good, trading with wider stops and smaller position sizes gives us greater flexibility and for the foreseeable future I see no reason to change away from this. Trading is all about the longer term and NOT high volume scalping trades, which are more risky in my opinion given the short term trading horizons.\r\n\r\nI have to get back into CHF trades sooner rather than later.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nSUBSCRIPTIONS:\r\n\r\nPricing options are now in CAD$.\r\n\r\nSILVER membership has been removed; being honest, I know a few of you have traded up, but all SILVER memberships really attracted were gamblers, who were time consuming, just looking for multiple trades per day.\r\n\r\nFrankly I want traders with me who are interested in the long-term, with steady income requirements that can supplement existing household income by being a part-time trader or those looking to develop a full-time income but being based upon longer-term horizons.\r\n\r\nThose of you who sign up, or have signed up for annual subscriptions have been raised to PLATINUM SUBSCRIBERS (the highest level of subscription). The initial benefit of this is that annual subscribers who renew for a further 12 months will receive a discount from the published price option. Currently it is CAD$1,250.00 to initially subscribe for 12 months with renewals for an annual PLATINUM subscriber at CAD$1,000.00.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>CHARTS THAT ARE ATTRACTING MY INTEREST:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDSEK-DAILY-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7936\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDSEK-DAILY-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"USDSEK DAILY 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/NZDCHF-D-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7935\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/NZDCHF-D-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"NZDCHF D 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/GBPCHF-DAILY-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7934\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/GBPCHF-DAILY-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"GBPCHF DAILY 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/EURGBP-D-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7933\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/EURGBP-D-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"EURGBP D 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/EURCHF-D-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7932\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/EURCHF-D-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"EURCHF D 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>TRADES REVIEW:</strong>\r\n\r\nThe excel spreadsheets below details current LIVE and pending LIMIT ORDER trades: -\r\n\r\n<strong><a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/LIVE-TRADES-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7917\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/LIVE-TRADES-21052016.png\" alt=\"LIVE TRADES 21052016\" width=\"796\" height=\"590\" /></a> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/LIMIT-ORDERS-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7916\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/LIMIT-ORDERS-21052016.png\" alt=\"LIMIT ORDERS 21052016\" width=\"671\" height=\"457\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> COMING UP THIS WEEK:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>THIS WEEK’S FOREX NEWS THAT INTERESTS ME:</u>\r\n\r\n(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market other than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to <a href=\"http://www.forexfactory.com\">www.forexfactory.com</a> and <a href=\"http://www.tradingeconomics.com\">www.tradingeconomics.com</a> for a more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).\r\n\r\nSUNDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: CAD – BOC Rate Statement.\r\nWEDNESDAY: NZD – Annual Budget Release.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<u>THE USD MAJORS – MY THOUGHTS (A REVIEW): </u>\r\n\r\n(In this section I have as usual kept my charts as minimalist as possible. With regards to charting in my opinion less is more!! I hope that they are clear. All readers regardless of level of experience should be able to follow my thoughts from my comments to the levels on the charts with ease)\r\n\r\nMy comments are contained on the charts.\r\n\r\nEUR/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.1221\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/EURUSD-D-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7926\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/EURUSD-D-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"EURUSD D 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nGBP/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.4497\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/GBPUSD-D-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7927\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/GBPUSD-D-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"GBPUSD D 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nAUD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.7222\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/AUDUSD-D-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7925\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/AUDUSD-D-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"AUDUSD D 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nNZD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.6762\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/NZDUSD-D-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7928\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/NZDUSD-D-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"NZDUSD D 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.3113\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDCAD-D-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7929\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDCAD-D-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"USDCAD D 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF - Weekly Closing Price: 0.9900\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDCHF-DAILY-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7937\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDCHF-DAILY-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"USDCHF DAILY 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY - Weekly Closing Price: 110.11\r\n\r\n<u><a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDJPY-D-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7931\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDJPY-D-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"USDJPY D 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a></u>\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u>MY CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nThe FOMC drove the markets last week and the USD strengthened further on the back of a HAWKISH April meeting minutes. After, the data release we have seen to a large extent consolidation moves, which are completely normal. It is now this coming week when I will be entering back into the market once again, albeit slow and steady given all the warnings that I see that I have written about in this week’s blog.\r\n\r\nWe are light on news that interests me this week.\r\n\r\nBe prepared the BOC could cut. The wild fires around Fort McMurray will be a huge burden on the Canadian economy and I think that for once Stephen Poloz (BOC, Governor) may want to be a head of the curve. It may not happen but be ready just in case.\r\n\r\nI think that the oil price has peaked, so should the BOC cut and the oil price falls the USD/CAD could be back at 1.3600 very quickly.\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nTake care,\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n<h6>DATE: 21st May 2016\r\nBLOG REFERENCE: #103 PREMIUM SERVICE VERSION</h6>\r\n&nbsp;','THE NIGHTMARE SCENARIO','','inherit','closed','closed','','7939-revision-v1','','','2016-05-21 10:35:49','2016-05-21 15:35:49','',7939,'http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/7939-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(1565,1,'2013-03-23 10:59:36','2013-03-23 15:59:36','I looked back over recent blogs and I seem to be starting with the same few words over and over again, such as......\"What an interesting week we just had\" and \"That was a very interesting  week in the Forex market\". Not this week....\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>1. INTRODUCTION:</strong></span>\n\nWelcome to the Fx Circus everyone...enjoy...enjoy..fun for all.\n\nI want to remain 100% honest with my blog and the feedback suggests that it is the way to go. How the bloody hell do you trade the USD major currencies? I do not know at times whether I am fading tops or buying on pullbacks. After being a trader for some time the Forex market right now must appear bananas to new traders.\n\nI took some interesting short trades early in the week, short the EUR/USD and GBP/USD, but after that success, the week has really been a voyeur approach. The \"Straw that broke the camel\'s back\" for me was Kuroda\'s speech in the week. I was reading the translation as it was made and the YEN should have weakened across the board......it strengthened. The Fx markets continual ability to buy on rumour and then sell on the news beggars belief at times. Are there sane people in the banks moving theses currencies around and what macro news are they looking at?\n\nGerman and French PMi stats awful.......EUR/USD weakens. Now I realise the cross currency effect of the EUR/GBP has a lot to do with this as the GBP is well oversold and any news to lift cable is jumped on like a \"Rat up a Drainpipe\" but it is a difficult market to assess and quite frankly, its not that easy to be a scalping trader at the moment.\n\nWhen the week was all over and done with and I look at my charts we are just range trading...false breakouts, the pullbacks, false breakdowns, spikes and then we move back within the ranges. Range trading should be easy but I am struggling to place a trade that I am happy with, knowing my risk before entering. The result......I am in cash 90% of the time. When Asia and Europe trade the USD strengthens and then when the New York session opens we reverse and follow stocks on their grind higher........what a false economy we are in. I blame Ben at the FED 100% for this and God only knows how it\'s going top play out because it has never been done before. Bernanke is probably hoping to be replaced, so his replacement can exit the QE programmes and let the bond purchases  mature, and then blame Ben\'s regime for the f**k up.\n\nWe live and trade in interesting times.......\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>2. THE VIEW FROM MY TRADING DESK:</strong></span>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>CYPRUS: THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE BIGGEST F**K UP THE EUROZONE HAS EVER MADE</strong></p>\nTrust and belief is everything in life, whether, personal or in business.\n\nWhen I was growing up I would hear my parents and their friends make statement in general conversation along the lines of  \"It\'s as safe as money in the Bank\". What does that mean? Bugger all in Cyprus irrespective oh how the politicians end their debates in the Cypriot parliament this weekend ahead of Monday\'s cash crunch deadline.\n\nIf your cash is NOT safe in a bank where is it safe....under a mattress?\n\nWhether deposits for the normal person who has less than €100,000.00 in a Cypriot Bank is left untouched by the proposed bank levy (once off my arse). There has been a breach of trust for those depositing funds in a bank. Whether you are a so-called Russian mobster or not..it is the principle. Governments tax you every which way that they can and now the bank account is seen as fair game...quite a pathetic, shameful and despicable approach. We the people vote these numpties into power....it\'s all our fault. In this case the population of Cyprus\'s fault to be exact.\n\nThe \"Cat is now amongst the pigeons\". It looks as if on the latest proposal I read that only those with Bank deposits over €100,000.00 will be targeted at about 15% for now.......will it end here? I think not.\n\nThe Cypriot parliament have stated for now that they want to remain in the Eurozone, as they ponder and debate the measures to come with the €5 Billion or so they need by Monday to satisfy Angela Merkel and the rest of the German\'s in Frankfurt. What happens if they think they have it this time and scrape by? but similar to Greece, and the Cypriot mentality is very similar to that of Greece, they need to come back again. Will the resolve to add more austerity to the island nation be as palatable again or will they just say \"enough\" like many commentators have already said is the way to go now and leave the Eurozone single currency.\n\nCONTAGION.........The dye has been cast already!\n\nI blame the German\'s 100% for this mess. Merkel is weak politically at home, she couldn\'t obtain parliament approval to bail out Cyprus with more cash, particularly with all the Russian involvement in Cyprus, so they gave the green light to bank levies.\n\nHere\'s a potential scenario:\n\nWhat happens if Italy\'s issues just go from bad to worse as they struggle on with parliamentary uncertainty?  Furthermore if the debt crisis starts to raise its head again in Spain and Italy....no more ECB monies, do they tax bank deposits to help pay the way as it\'s better than the rigid loan agreements and strong conditions that countries have to get into with the ECB and IMF. It\'s sold as a one off...that then becomes an annual tax. Let\'s face facts the Eurozone tax income in general is declining due to high unemployment and social welfare payments. Just saying............\n\nIf Cyprus decides this weekend, or the next time to leave the single currency and revert to the Cypriot Pound, it would be devalued and this would allow a lightening of the austerity measures and some increased degree of normality to return to everyday living in Cyprus.\n\nNext their close neighbours Greece observe this and come to the simple conclusion......\"What the F**K are we doing with this Austerity crap...we are only on the planet once, we will be paying for this, which wasn\'t all our fault for our entire lifetime. What\'s the point...let\'s vote for political party that will take us out the Eurozone single currency and re-value and re-print Drachma. The Italians, Spanish, and Portuguese could all follow suit and then you have the  southern based Eurozone members all pulling out of the the single currency.\n\nPressure groups grow and look at Cyprus and say \"It\'s not such a big deal to leave the €uro \" and the fact that you are no longer paying for Political mis-management of your country and the \"Sub-Prime\" fiasco from Wall Street that started all this gives you a few years of quality life back, a little bit of inflation in the exiting countries would help re-balance books and aid the pay down of debt. Away from the tight monetary controls of Frankfurt things start to breathe again. Could it happen........in my opinion it\'s potential path that the Eurozone could follow. It was engineered in the first place by Germany who have repeatedly stated they want ALL 19 members to stay in the single currency. Do you believe and trust politicians?\n\nI believe a contagion could be on the cards.......\n\nIf every country in the Eurozone went to the polls in the next few weeks for a referendum on whether to stay in the €uro or not............What do you think the individual country by country result would be?\n\nFor those of you outside of Europe, you may not be aware but you have  to remember most countries gave up their sovereign currencies without a referendum. It was done sneakily attached top other treaties....vote yes to the obvious and you get the €uro too!!\n\nFood for thought.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>3. MY LONGER-TERM TRADES:</strong></span>\n\nNone at the moment.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>4. LOOKING AHEAD INTO NEXT WEEK........THE KEY SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE  LEVELS IN THE USD MAJOR PAIRS:</strong></span>\n\n<strong>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.2988.</strong> We closed yesterday at the toppish end of the trading channel. 1.2850 to 1.3100 is the channel I am looking at. Play the confirmed breaks or take small positions within the range.\n\n<strong>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.5229.</strong> We are at the top of the range, be careful if you are looking to go long. 1.4850-1.5240 is my range.\n\n<strong>AUD/USD: Closing Price 1.0443.</strong> This pair is still not following equities with the gusto it should and although it looks like it wants to test resistance at 1.0475, it is making a meal out of doing so. The range is 1.0330 to 1.0475.\n\n<strong>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8356</strong>. We are currently sitting on resistance. A break higher here opens up 0.8450 in my eyes. Support is strong at 0.8250 and 0.8150 in particular on the way down but I think that if we get any sort of settlement out of Cyprus this pair may spike upwards to play it carefully.\n\n<strong>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.9405.</strong> We are at the point of a breakdown. If the EUR/USD breaks higher on Cyprus, the CHF will fall. We just need to verify is it a €uro spike along the lines of buy the rumour /sell the news and then it will sell off or is it going to squeeze higher. The EUR/USD will guide you how to trade the CHF next week.\n\n<strong>USD/JPY: Closing Price 94.45.</strong> This pair is still very sensitive to world macro events and news events. Despite, the BOJ attempts to weaken the pair it has strengthened on the risk on/risk off playbook. Key support is at 94.00 and resistance is big at 96.75.\n\n<strong>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.0231.</strong> If there was a currency that is boringly stuck in its range here it is. 1.0180 to 1.0330 is the big range.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>4. MAJOR NEWS EVENTS THAT INTEREST ME COMING UP NEXT WEEK:</strong></span>\n\nMONDAY: EUR - The Cyprus fallout/parliament settlement and Eurozone response.\n\nTUESDAY: USD - Consumer Confidence\n\nWEDNESDAY: CAD - Core CPi\n\nTHURSDAY: CAD - GDP\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>5. FINAL THOUGHTS:</strong></span>\n\nGet ready for massive false moves up and down, there will be soooooooooooooooooo many rumours surrounding Cyprus in the early part of next  week it may be better to be sidelined in cash. There will be volatility and politicians from every corner of the Eurozone will crawling out from under their rocks to get their 15 seconds of fame on a TV sound-byte or a column inch in the newspaper.\n\nBeware and trade carefully.\n\nGood luck,\n\nScott Pickering\nThe Pip Accumulator\nSaturday 23rd March 2013.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n&nbsp;\n\n&nbsp;\n\n&nbsp;\n\n&nbsp;\n\n&nbsp;\n\n&nbsp;','CYPRUS: THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE BIGGEST F**K UP THE EUROZONE HAS EVER MADE','','publish','open','closed','','cyprus-this-has-the-potential-to-be-the-biggest-fk-up-the-eurozone-has-ever-made','','','2013-03-23 10:59:36','2013-03-23 15:59:36','',0,'http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/?p=1565',0,'post','',1),(1539,1,'2013-03-16 11:55:06','2013-03-16 16:55:06','<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>1. INTRODUCTION:</strong></span>\n\nI am still not trading or tweeting at 100% capacity. This week, I have spent most of my time on the sidelines waiting for entry levels to be hit....and to be fair at the end of the week I had pretty much lost sight of whether I was buying dips or selling into strength. As I trade basically the USD majors I am finding the market a little frustrating to make a good daily profit. I will not chase the market so I have been pretty much ignoring the moves in the USD/JPY, that is of course after taking my profits off the table way, way too early some weeks ago.\n\nI am now waiting to get into some shorts but at the following levels: - GBP/USD 1.5200, AUD/USD 1.0560, NZD/USD 0.8300 and EUR/USD 1.3150. I am also buying on dips trying to get long on the following: - USD/CHF 0.9380, USD/JPY 94.50 and finally USD/CAD I am trading but the trade size is only a 20% position size.\n\nI am so bored at the moment with the Fx market, maybe I shouldn\'t be,....... but I am......this has resulted in me even looking at trading some of the cross pairs like EUR/AUD, GBP/AUD, EUR/NZD and GBP/NZD. These commodity crosses have to some extent been driving the USD cross rate pair at times. They certainly were last Thursday. I did however stay connected to my trading plan and wait in cash.\n\nEven the EU summit (Cheese and Wine Party to you and I), had no fallout.....Angela Merkel seemed to bend on extensions for France and Portugal to get their finances in order an the Italian election  issues seem to be pushed under the carpet at the moment. For the last three/four years you could always rely upon a Eurozone numpty politician making some stupid comment driving a bit of volatility in the EUR/USD......I never thought I would say this... but....... bring on the numpties!!\n\nMy Joker in the pack, Merv the Swerve (Governor King at the BOE) could always be relied on for a swift 50 pip drop every time he draws breath to talk about Cable. What did he do during the week? He said that the present levels about 1.4900/1.5000 were about right for the GBP/USD, which had the opposite effect!! I was ready to short on a pullback, now I have to wait, but,  I suppose my next entry level at 1.5200  gives me a potential better risk/reward trade.\n\nI am still a raving USD bull, this rise in equities has to end soon, it is unsustainable. There is so much divergence and lack of correlations in the markets something has got to give......\n\nHopefully, the coming weeks will remove frustration by some of my entry levels coming into play.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>2. THIS VIEW FROM MY TRADING DESK:</strong></span>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>WILL THIS WEEK\'S FOMC PRESS CONFERENCE BE A QE GAME CHANGER?</strong></p>\nThere is no doubt that the U.S. data has been steadily improving over the past few weeks. The last Non Farm Payroll number (Two weeks ago) and last Thursday\'s weekly numbers are showing good trends and steadily improving, even though there is much more to go things are moving at a macro level in the right direction. This past week we also saw that the ultimate consumer society in the world did not fail to deliver, by beating both the Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales figures.\n\nThese recent Government statistics have certainly placed Ben Bernanke, the most powerful man in the world, in my opinion, in the spotlight for  this coming Wednesday. My blog last week referred to the fact that the exit talk relating to  the FED\'s Quantitive Easing stimulus would increase more and more, and, in particular, following the Retail Sales numbers we hit 911 proportions with paramedics on standby. The presenters on CNBC were frothing at the mouth, until they realised that they may not  be able to talk the markets up if Ben pulled the plug on support for the equities markets.\n\nSo, with that said, on Wednesday we have a FOMC minutes release and a press conference, which will give Ben the opportunity to state his case verbally in support of the transcript that is released about 30 minutes prior to the press conference.\n\nBen has stated in the past that there are clear goals set in relation to the economy before he begins to withdraw support. Interest Rates will be kept low until unemployment hits 6.5% an inflation tops 2.5%.\n\nPersonally, I think that he has to stick like glue to these numbers on Wednesday to avoid a massive jolt of volatility. Having said that, the press conference will push him to talk about his exit strategy and this could be \"The Game Changer\". Even though I think that Ben will try to push the decision date well into 2014 and state that it is way too premature to talk about such things, as the unemployment rate is currently at 7.7% against a target of 6.5%. There will be calls no matter what Ben says, for an overview of how the FED proposes to exit and or reduce support without jolting the equity markets. If Ben goes too far with exit options, it will be tantamount to a feeding frenzy for analysts, markets and bloggers.\n\nBernanke is a very experienced operator, you just have to see the way he expertly plays the senate committees, he will not get dragged down a route that leads him to an ending that requires a dubious comment or sound-byte that the media can quote and re-quote out of context.\n\nHowever, should Ben believe that he has to start cutting back on the enormous $85 Billion per month support a little earlier than 6.5% unemployment, and, by that  I mean he moves the goal posts.....this will be a game changer as much as him quoting exits times and values etc.\n\nPersonally, I cannot see him breaking his current winning code of telling the markets everything they want to hear in such a way that it\'s low on actual content but they feel satisfied. Ben will stick to his guns, he has to......... I do not think he can break away and create any kind of uncertainty. Uncertainty right at this moment could cause a massive pullback in equities and in so doing hit at the core confidence that he has worked so hard to achieve.\n\nIt does mean though, if this FED press conference isn\'t a game changer.......what about the next one?\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>3. MY LONGER TERM TRADES:</strong></span>\n\nI do not currently have any trades that I am calling long term but I am long the USD/CAD from an entry level of 1.0229 currently -36 pips and I am not happy that the weekly close is at 1.0193, below 1.0200 which gives the technicals a negative tone on the pair.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>4. LOOKING FORWARD....THE SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS:</strong></span>\n\n<strong>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3074.</strong> We closed yesterday just below 1.3100, which was a little of a bear/bull line for me. I am looking to enter short at 1.3150. Will we get there? That is the big question for me. I think it\'s a case of playing ranges for the initial part of next week. 1.3000 is good support and 1.3200 is great resistance but I am doubtful that we will hit this number easily. This is why I think that 1.3150 is not just a good entry but also reasonable resistance. The only caveat I have is that we can have a market moving event out of the Eurozone at any time...Italy and it\'s parliament for example. This pair is hard to trade intra-day. I think that you need the ranges to help more than ever as this limits your risk.\n\n<strong>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.5108.</strong> I am now looking to 1.5200 to enter short. The range in this pair is 1.5000 to 1.5200.\n\n<strong>AUD/USD: Closing Price 1.0410.</strong> The most talked about inverted Head and Shoulders pattern is in play. The measured move is to 1.0500. Above 1.0400, which we are at now..gives a bullish sentiment to this pair and hence even more calls target to 1.0500. Support is very big at 1.0330. Below this level, the bears are back in charge.\n\n<strong>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8273.</strong> If the Aussie rises the Kiwi will get pulled up as well screaming and shouting if it has to be! The range now is 0.8240 to 0.8350.\n\n<strong>USD/JPY: Closing Price 95.29.</strong> A nice breakdown even though Kuroda has been passed by parliament to head the BOJ. There are rumours a foot that he wants to have an emergency BOJ meeting before the planned one in April. Even with this going on in the background the Yen has strengthened and has pulled back off the 96.50 highs to just above 95.00. I am ready to go long at 94.50 which looks a good level of support. The range 94.50 to 96.50....play the ranges.\n\n<strong>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.0193</strong>. I am long this pair but only a small position, and, out of the money a little. I am concerned that we closed below 1.0200. The range next week is 1.0150 and 1,0250.\n\n<strong>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.9386.</strong> 0.9400 was critical support for me. This level had held on spikes lower and the fact we closed below 0.9400 is concerning, that said, it\'s only a few pips below at the moment. The new range that I am looking at is 0.9350 to 0.9475.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>5. THE MAJOR NEWS EVENTS THAT INTEREST ME THIS WEEK:</strong></span>\n\nTUESDAY - GBP -  CPi Data and the BOE inflation letter.\nTUESDAY - EUR - ZEW Economic Sentiment\n\nWEDNESDAY - GBP - MPC Meeting Minutes, Claimant Count Changes and the Annual Budget speech by George Osborne in the Houses of Parliament.\nWEDNESDAY - USD - FOMC Statement and Press Conference.\nWEDNESDAY - NZD - GDP\nWEDNESDAY - CNY - HSBC Manufacturing PMi\n\nTHURSDAY - EUR - German Manufacturing PMi\nTHURSDAY - GBP - Retail Sales\nTHURSDAY - CAD - Retail Sales\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>6. CLOSING THOUGHTS AND FINAL COMMENTS:</strong></span>\n\nThis is a big week, make no mistake. The ranges are in place and the discipline to be patient will be required to maximise the profit opportunity. I have several trades in my mind, and I gave my entry levels earlier in the blog, I know my exit levels so I know what my risks are before entering a trade. Risk assessment will be crucial this week.\n\nAs always with the Forex market there are so many market moving news events that are not published but lurking in the background all the time.....the Eurozone.........I need write no more.\n\nTrade mean, with smaller lots, with wider stops, to cope with volatility.\n\nGood luck.\n\nScott Pickering\nThe Pip Accumulator,\nSaturday 16th March 2013','WILL THIS WEEK\'S FOMC PRESS CONFERENCE BE A QE GAME CHANGER?','','publish','open','closed','','this-weeks-fomc-press-conference-could-be-a-game-changer','','','2013-03-16 11:55:06','2013-03-16 16:55:06','',0,'http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/?p=1539',0,'post','',0),(1508,1,'2013-03-09 13:05:06','2013-03-09 18:05:06','<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>1. INTRODUCTION:</strong></span>\n\nOnly on Thursday this week did I feel that I was back to 100% after having a \"Flu\" for the past five weeks. Therefore, as a result next week I will be fully engaged on Twitter and trading.\n\nA very interesting past 5 days of trading. It was a Central Bank extravaganza with four or five reviewing interest rates. If that was not enough there was also U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls release that could potentially be a game changer.  Do not be surprised to see lines of Financial Executives around Lower Manhattan to be precise, buying toilet issue in vast quantities as they will be sitting on the loo for most of the next few weeks hoping that uncle Ben from the FED does not pull the plug on QE early and raise interest rates. If you trade equities, I would say that Andrex and Scotties....in fact any bathroom toilet tissue manufacturer would be a good long, and, if you live near Wall Street stock up!!\n\nI heard six denials from either Central Bankers, Prime Ministers or Finance Ministers this week, regarding the subject of currency wars.......interesting. I think that it is only themselves who actually believe what they are saying.\n\nThe EUR/USD was absolutely stuffed/smacked/handed it\'s butt yesterday. The previous day, following Draghi\'s press conference it rose to 1.3100 , then at the close last night it was once again hovering at 1.3000. The mere fact it only retraced to 1.3100 on Thursday was significant, given that Draghi eluded to the fact that the ECB sees  1.3500 as the going rate in 2013. On Thursday 1.3100 was a very small move upwards all things considered,  this meant that it could have been prime for a fall back and theU.S.  jobs report yesterday delivered the numbers to chop it back.....in style.\n\nIt\'s a debate at the moment between the GBP an the EUR for which one is more down the toilet than the other. I think that Cable has it, at the moment,  the fundamentals are so bad its heading for low 1.40\'s even mid 1.30\'s in my eyes. The EUR is not that much better. 1.2900 will offer good support on any down side move, but if that level gives way it is in danger of heading to the low 1.20\'s to test bottoms before maybe pulling back.\n\nI have written about this so many times but the divergences are now huge between equities and the Forex market. The AUD/USD is still not rising in line with the S&amp;P 500. In fact, the AUD/USD is close to a very important level 1.0220.\n\nSo, in the coming weeks watch the correlations closely. I am not calling a top in equities, but we cannot be too far away now. The move lower if the FED talks about pulling the plug later this year, will be  a good percentage correction. Remember the FED is pouring 85 billion dollars a month in support to the US markets while the numpty politicians in Washington are quite happy and content to  bicker and waste time over party political issues, ignoring what is good for the country. A move lower could be passing them by before they realise what is happening...then they will focus on who to blame for an equity pullback, even though the economy may be improving.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>2. THE VIEW FROM MY TRADING DESK:</strong></span>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>LET THE FED QE EXIT DEBATE BEGIN....RELEASE THE BEARS!!</strong></p>\nSo, yesterday\'s Non Farm payrolls numbers have created a whirlwind in the media. There are quotes, mis-quotes, in fact, a bevvy of analysts have crawled out from under rocks to appear on Bloomberg and CNBC to compare Presidential performances on unemployment and debt statistics to those going back as far as Jimmy Carter. Holy Crap what\'s going to happen if next month\'s NFP is a good number as well....CNBC will need paramedics on standby!\n\nOK....it was a number that beat estimates, but my God, the U.S. is working off numbers that are as questionable as the China data releases. How many hundreds of thousands of people are there in the U.S. that have stopped claiming benefits (because they can only claim for a limited time) and have therefore  fallen off the radar as far as unemployment numbers are concerned?  What is the true unemployment rate? No-one knows....lets be honest, it\'s got to be closer to 10%, rather than the 7.7% quoted yesterday as the official numbers.\n\nMoving to the actual numbers, a positive monthly change of  236,000 newly employed people beat the estimated 162,000 by a country mile but the U.S. allegedly needs 250,000 a month net increase just to keep pace with new entrants to the labour market and these numbers as previously mentioned ignore the drop off rate of previous claimants. So they are not accurate.\n\nNow, I think that Ben Bernanke is not just the most powerful man in the world but he is also intelligent and he knows these numbers are fudged. The debate over future FED action has begun. Will they.....won\'t they....... announce a reduction in the monthly QE support . When Ben announced that he would support the markets to 85 billion dollars a month, it was initially seen as QE to infinity....not anymore...... the debates on exits have started.\n\nBefore we get all \"beared\" up and short anything that moves, Bernanke is not stupid, and, I think he will try to calm things down by saying that the unemployment target is still some ways away, but he may have to elude to maybe the end of 2013 as the time that if the conditions are right that he pulls back a little. He is playing with dynamite, and, this was always going to be a most interesting subject at the appropriate press conference, when it happens that is, and the subsequent market reaction that follows will be volatile to say the least. This however will not stop the insatiable desire by the media and bloggers like myself to talk about it way ahead of time.\n\nAs an Fx trader all I will say is that the disconnect between Forex and Equities has already begun and this correlation, or lack of it, is probably only going to continue for the time being.\n\nThere will be previously caged bears foaming at the mouth ready to break out as soon as the negative sentiment enters the equity markets..... just beware. We are entering another period of uncertainty, and, the equity markets, in particular, do not like uncertainty. Volatility is ahead in the Fx market and we love volatility....happy days.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>3. MY LONG TERM TRADES:</strong></span>\n\nI do not have any at this present time.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>4. LOOKING INTO THE NEXT WEEK  - THE KEY SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS:</strong></span>\n\n<strong>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3003.</strong>  Very bearish events twice this past week for the EUR/USD. We close the week at 1.3000. We look like we will be heading lower in the coming weeks. It will not be a straight line but we now have FED issues, the uncertainty over the Italian election, although the debt costs of Spain and Italy seem to be on the back burner for the present time but they will be back!! This week 1.3150 to the upside will be what is needed in my opinion to change away from the bearish tones. Down side support is huge at 1.2900, then 1.2850. If we really start to see this pair pressured I think we may be ready to re-test 1.2635 at some stage in the coming weeks. Please remember this will not be a straight line decline. We will swing up and down on the way lower.\n\n<strong>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.4916.</strong> Winning the most ugly pair in the market prize, the GBP/USD. I know that Cable has the reputation of going on the equivalent of a forex bender by flying off in the opposite direction to even the heaviest of trends, but this time it is so far down the crapper it has to fall much lower. All the UK fundamental news is so poor, how this pair isn\'t below 1.4500 already beats me. I have a long term target of below 1.4000 with this pair for 2013. It is soooooooooooooooooooooo poor. For this week however,  to change the bearish mood/sentiment, in my opinion we will need to see a break back to 1.5200. If we do this it will offer a great short and \"Thank the Lord\" at the same time for the gift! Downside support is initially at 1.4880; 1.4750 is below that and then 1.4500. If we break below 1.4500 this week my below 1.4000 belief will come into play a lot earlier than I thought.\n\n<strong>AUD/USD: Closing Price 1.0230.</strong> We closed just 10 pips above crucial support that we toyed with most of yesterday. Downside support at 1.0150. This was important some time ago but now I believe it to be minor as the big cheese will be at parity. Upside 1.0300, then 1.0360 are resistance levels.\n\n<strong>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8215.</strong> If we take out 0.8200...I think the opportunity to go a lot lower lies in front of this pair. The Interest Rate decision coming up next week will be crucial for this pairs future direction. Sentiment is bearish along with the Aussie. Short side support after 0.8200 is 0.8140 and then 0.8000 looms on the horizon.  To the long side, 0.8250 then 0.8350 will offer good resistance.\n\n<strong>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.0282.</strong> Great data from Canada yesterday took the Loonie lower with CAD strength. It did pull back with USD strength during the day and once again looks like its ready to test 1.0300. Play the trading range. The range to break  is 1.0200 to 1.0350.\n\n<strong>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.9507.</strong> We are above 0.9500 at the close. I think the EUR/USD has the potential to fall away next week and therefore as it drops the USD/CHF will rise. I think 0.9750 is a reasonable target to look at on the way back to parity. 0.9450 and then 0.9380 will offer good support to the downside.\n\n<strong>USD/JPY: Closing Price 95.95.</strong> I do not know how to play this pair; apart from not to stand in front of the freight train..... This pair looks like it still wants to move higher although it has had difficulty at 96.50. The BOJ is on a mission. I would once again just play the range, 94.50 to 96.50.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>5. THE NEXT WEEK\'S MAJOR FOREX NEWS EVENTS THAT INTEREST ME:</strong></span>\n\nIn comparison to the week just completed not as much coming up on the docket in the next 5 1/2 days.\n\nWEDNESDAY: NZD - Interest Rates and RBNZ Pres Conference.\n\nWEDNESDAY: AUD - Employment Change/ Unemployment Rate.\n\nFRIDAY: USD - Core CPi Data.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>6. FINAL COMMENTS AND CLOSING THOUGHTS:</strong></span>\n\nWe are once again facing yet another period of uncertainty. This is not the time to be a hero. Do not try to pick either a top or bottom in the market. The moves if sentiment starts to change will be very large and therefore as a  Fx trader just take a chunk out of the middle of the move, trust me there are heaps and heaps of pips available without trying to be a super hero. Wait for the move confirmation, then set up your trade, and move stops as needed to protect your profits. We may not be at this stage yet although look closely at the Aussie and Kiwi which are at lows of the day and then look at the Dow Jones and S&amp;P, highs and new highs. Divergence is the word.\n\nTrade with smaller positions and with wider stops to cope with any volatility.\n\nGood Luck.....\n\nScott Pickering\nThe Pip Accumulator\nSaturday 9th March 2013\n\n&nbsp;','LET THE FED QE EXIT DEBATE BEGIN....RELEASE THE BEARS!!','','publish','open','closed','','let-the-fed-qe-exit-debate-begin','','','2013-03-09 13:05:06','2013-03-09 18:05:06','',0,'http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/?p=1508',0,'post','',0),(1494,1,'2013-03-02 10:58:53','2013-03-02 15:58:53','<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>1. INTRODUCTION:</strong></span>\n\nI am still under the weather a little. I just cannot shrug of the flu like symptoms, hence, the reduced tweeting.  I am however, still trading a little and following the markets closely. There were some key break outs this past week and these will be the focus of  \"The view\" this week. I believe the market is once again poised to make a significant move.\n\nI have been trading the USD/JPY  scalping both long and short with reasonable success, and as usual, scalping the EUR/USD. My biggest trading pair however has been the GBP/USD short and long, and, for once cable actually did what it should have done.....sounds crazy but usually when I see a short GBP/USD trade, it reverses on me and vice-versa. The last few days however it has been consistent for me. I am now just looking out of my kitchen window to see if I can the squadron of pink pigs flying by. Cable working out for me is that rare!!\n\nLooking ahead the AUD/USD, USD/CAD, NZD/USD, GBP/CHF, USD/CHF and EUR/GBP interest me and some of these will form the basis of my longer term trading strategy. As I decide on my approach I will tweet my entry levels and trade thoughts.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>2. THE VIEW FROM FROM TRADING DESK:</strong></span>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>ARE YOU READY FOR USD STRENGTH?</strong></span></p>\nI feel like at times that I am repeating myself a little. As I look back over my past blogs the same subjects re-appear, but then, this is trading and trading is a repeating and basically simple function, so it is not surprising that there is repetition.\n\nWe are once again back at the crossroads that I wrote about a few weeks ago prior to my Hong Kong vacation. The key difference this time is that we have seen the start of the moves with most of the currency pairs.  Fundamentally, I have been saying that since September/October last year my key indicators have been diverging. The best example is the AUD/USD not breaking 1.1000 like some of the analysts on CNBC were predicting over and over again. All the time as the equity markets relentlessly pushed higher the AUD/USD basically range traded. Even now as equity markets in the USA are almost at 5/6 year highs, and, all time highs, the correlation between the AUD/USD and equities is broken. It has headed lower and broken through the support of it\'s trading channel, we are at 1.0200.\n\nI have written several times in past blogs that all the easing being placed into the markets via the central banks, will at some stage have a reduced impact as a diminishing effect would take over. In my opinion, we are there, and, we have been for a while. I always say, Commodities lead the markets, then bonds and Forex...equities are the last to the party. This can been seen so clearly at the moment in the U.S. equity markets. There is clear divergence, with good or bad U.S.econmic news the equity markets rise as they (The Money Men) know the FED will continue to support Wall Street.\n\nIn the Forex markets we have had significant beginnings of some critical moves in the key pairs.\n\nThe GBP/USD is broken. We are testing 1.5000 and with the PMi, GDP numbers recently released, the debt down grade and basically the poor fundamentals in the UK, I can see this pair below 1.4000 in the next six months. I see no good news on the horizon, no bright lights at the end of the tunnel. More QE...big whoopie, at best it will hold the present positions for a short while, but then, we drop lower.\n\nThe EUR/USD is on the brink. I am being kind with that comment. We are currently playing out a \"Head and Shoulders\" pattern, which has a measured move down to 1.2900. We are just consolidating around 1.3000. I do fear a bounce in the near term, but, fundamentally we will head lower. Remember, Europe is a mess there are only so many things that the ECB and Draghi can do. Liquidity maybe an issue once again as during this past week LTRO payments to the ECB were severely cut back which indicates liquidity issues with the European key banks. No surprise this position/news is Euro negative. We still have uncertainty in Greece and then there is Italy. Holy Mother of God....Italy is a blog on it\'s own. It\'s not good news, it\'s uncertainty will be with us for weeks, maybe months and markets hate uncertainty...this will roll on an on, or should I say, the \"Can\"(another Euro can) will be kicked down the road. Spain is in denial. Whichever direction you look in the Eurozone, north, south, east or west the fundamentals are so poor. It is only a matter of short time before we are testing 52 week lows.\nDraghi\'s press conference this week will be interesting. He does not have to worry about Euro strength this time but more concerns about the periphery. He can do little about the fears and hates the voters have with austerity, in fact, the politicians cannot sort this. The Eurozone is NOT goo news.\n\nAs the EUR/USD goes own it\'s inverted friend the USD/CHF goes the other way. We are in break out territory with the \"Swissy\", 0.9500 and above beckons.\n\nThe USD/CAD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/SEK, USD/NOK all the commodity currencies are weakening, which means, the US is strengthening. commodities and then their currencies lead the way.\n\nLook at the Holy Trinity...Gold, Oil and Copper....all in down sloping channels.\n\nUSD strength is without question appearing and recently there were calls that the USD index could hit $88 or $89. If this were to happen this would place the EUR/USD below 1.2600.\n\nGet yourselves ready and note the moves, get your trading strategy in place, If you do not want to trade the USD majors look at the cross pairs like the EUR/AUD, EUR/CAD, EUR/NZD, GBP/AUD and GBP/NZD.\n\nI have not mentioned the Yen pairs.....but what if commodities  and the USD move as I hae written? This will have an effect on the equity markets eventually. What do you think happens to all the Yen pairs?\n\nInteresting times ahead. Get ready.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>3. MY LONGER-TERM TRADES:</strong></span>\n\nNone in place at the moment, but follow me on  twitter @pipaccumulator over the next week and as I place my long term  trades I will post the levels etc.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>4. LOOKING AHEAD KEY SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS IN THE USD MAJOR PAIRS:</strong></span>\n\n<strong>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3016.</strong> We are on the brink. I think we may bounce off 1.3000 to 1.3250/1.3300 before resuming the down side move. I do however believe  that we will be trading sub 1.3000 soon. If we break lower in the coming sessions to complete the \"Head and Shoulders\" measured move to 1.2900, we may just re-test 1.3000 and then resume the down trend. I think the trading channel for now is 1.2900 to 1.3250.\n\n<strong>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.5034.</strong> The Cable is broken. We will be heading lower, much lower. It will not be a waterfall drop as we have come such a long way so quickly. We will need to work off the oversold RSi\'s (Relative Strength Indicators) first.  This week 1.5070 an then 1.5150 are key to the upside limits and support is 1.5000, below there there is a lot of air to 1.4300 and 1.3800. Round numbers supports will offer support on the way lower.\n\n<strong>AUD/USD: Closing Price 1.0201.</strong> During the week an Australian Government Data release that was a couple of months old indicated that the AUD was overvalued in the eyes of the RBA. They saw that it needed a correction of about between 4% and I think it was 8%. We have support at 1.0150 then it\'s parity. The RBA is citing around 0.9800. That is where I am looking. Resistance is back at 1.0275 and 1.0360 should we go there. I am very bearish.\n\n<strong>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8247.</strong> This pair has been very strong of late, but is now starting to weaken. As the RBNZ has stated recently that it will intervene in the currency markets  if required........this pair is also heading lower. My target is sub 0.8000.....quite a way sub 0.8000. For this week however we need to break below support at 0.8220 and resistance is at 0.8330.\n\n<strong>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.0265.</strong>  We are breaking out. Support is at 1.0200 an resistance is initially at 1.0360.\n\n<strong>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.9425.</strong> If this pair breaks 0.9500 and we run to 0.9750 then it\'s parity once again. It all depends on the EUR/USD and Gold. Support is at 0.9360 and then 0.9330.\n\n<strong>USD/JPY: Closing Price 93.35.</strong> Just not sure how to play this pair now....I was convinced that we would be testing 92.00 by the end of last week instead we are mid range. I see the channel as 92.20 to 94.50.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>5. NEW ITEMS THAT INTEREST ME THIS WEEK:</strong></span>\n\nMONDAY: AUD - RBA Interest Rates\n\nTUESDAY: GBP - Services PMi\nTUESDAY: AUD - GDP\n\nWEDNESDAY: GBP - Merv the Swerve takes the stage once again (BOE)\nWEDNESDAY: USD - ADP Non Farm payrolls\nWEDNESDAY: CAD - BOC Interest Rates\n\nTHURSDAY: JPY - BOJ Press Conference\nTHURSDAY: GBP - Interest Rates ans Asset Purchases\nTHURSDAY: EUR - Interest Rates and ECB Press Conference\n\nFRIDAY: CAD - Unemployment rates\nFRIDAY : USD - Non Farm Payrolls.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>6. CLOSING THOUGHTS:</strong></span>\n\nBig news items this week.\n\nOpportunities to make lots of money this week, but also do not get caught on \"Knee Jerk\" market reactions. Trade smaller this week and add next week to profitable positions as the trends hopefully will take hold.\n\nGood Luck,\n\n&nbsp;\n\nScott Pickering\nThe Pip Accumulator\nSaturday 2nd March 2013.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n&nbsp;\n\n&nbsp;\n\n&nbsp;','ARE YOU READY FOR USD STRENGTH?','','publish','open','closed','','are-you-ready-for-usd-strength','','','2013-03-02 10:58:53','2013-03-02 15:58:53','',0,'http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/?p=1494',0,'post','',1),(1439,1,'2013-02-22 11:18:40','2013-02-22 16:18:40','<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>1. INTRODUCTION:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nI\'m back....\r\n\r\nThree weeks of flu has really had me up the wall.\r\n\r\nDespite being somewhat out of it, I have been watching the markets from a distance, observing and towards the end of this past week I have been back to 50% trading. Including our vacation in Europe and Hong Kong it has been literally four weeks away from full-time trading. What I have noticed though is that for the most part in my absence the Fx markets have been trading in fairly tight ranges and it is only very, very recently that it looks like we are finally ready to break free and see a little bit of volatility.\r\n\r\nEven the USD/JPY, which had been on the tear is now in a range as it appears that old Shinzo has decided that the run to 93.00 is about right.....and fair.....but fair for who? Not to be too cynical but his latest comments followed the recent G7 and G20 meetings or  \"Cheese and Wine\" parties.\r\n\r\nAh, the denial of currency wars in the G7 is about the same as Ahmadinejad\'s denial of the holocaust. Unbelievable, I watched George Osborne, UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, squirming on TV under scrutiny over the \"wishy-washy\" press release. That certainly cheered me up...I love watching politicians on the ropes trying to defend the indefensible and deny the undeniable....oh...happy days!!\r\n\r\nFinally, the Friday afternoon rating agencies announcement this time went to Moody\'s who downgraded the UK debt rating to Aa1 from AAA.....\r\nThe ramifications of this will be hugely different from the US and French downgrades. London relies on the financial markets so much and is such a huge percentage within the FTSE, this move will have the effect of creating big waves. Yesterday at the end of the day literally the last gasp of the Fx market, the GBP/USD sold off 75 pips in 30 minutes. I do not want to appear to be a drama queen but we may test 1.5000 in the London session (overnight Sunday tomorrow) if the reaction in Europe is really negative. Then again many would argue that the markets will simply shrug this news off as the rating agencies count for nothing, and many people will argue that that this downgrade was to a large effect already priced in given the huge move lower in the GBP/USD over the past 10 days. We may see what is called \"The Revenge Bounce\", who knows, and, if we do, how far could cable pull back....1.5400.....who knows? We will wait and see the reaction....no sleep for me tomorrow!!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>2. THE VIEW FROM MY TRADING DESK:</strong></span>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>ALL EYES ON THE EURO....FUNDAMENTALS DO MATTER</strong></p>\r\nOver the past twelve months I have been consistently blogging about how much the Eurozone economies, in fact, the Eurozone  are down the toilet.\r\n\r\nThe constant non-productive summits (wine tastings to you and I), the totally ineffective Eurozone treaties and the numpty politicians when added together provide what can only be described as the biggest recipe for disaster that would even have world acclaimed best chef ever, Gordon Ramsey running for new expletives other than the \"F\" word. But his comments right now if  he were at a Eurozone summit would be along the lines of: -\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 150px;\"><em>What the f**k was that comment Draghi made about the OMT all about, we do not f**king understand that f**king man?</em>\r\n<em> Who the f**k do they think they f**king are in the UK, tell that Cameron to f**k off!</em>\r\n<em> Are they f**king smoking something in f**king Greece?</em>\r\n<em> What is all the F**cking worry over the f**king GDP about anyway, its the f**king fact no one has a f**king job is what they should f**king  focus on?</em>\r\n<em> Who\'s f**king idea was it to have a f**king single f**king currency anyhow...f**king idiots.</em>\r\n<em> Pass me the f**king wine...I need another f**king drink..f**king plonkers.</em></p>\r\nYou get the idea...\r\n\r\nFundamentals always matter, it not just technicals. Eventually  the chickens come home to roost and the all ducks line up. Let\'s look at the Eurozone right now, at a macro level (this will not be too detailed for obvious reasons).\r\n\r\n<strong>A - GERMANY: The power house, the work horse, the leader of the Eurozone and dominant economy. (The largest economy in the Eurozone)</strong>\r\n\r\nThis weeks, February \"Flash Manufacturing PMi\" came is at  50.1 versus the consensus of  50.4 ...whilst over the contracting line of 50...still a miss.\r\n\r\nThe previous monthly results from August through to December  2012 were as follows:\r\n\r\nJanuary 2013         Actual 48.8    Forecast  47.1  Beat\r\nDecember 2012     Actual 46.3    Forecast 47.1    Miss\r\nNovember  2012    Actual 48.8   Forecast  45.9   Beat\r\nOctober 2012         Actual  45.7   Forecast  48.1   Miss\r\n<em id=\"__mceDel\">September 2012    Actual   47.3   Forecast  45.4   Beat\r\n</em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\">August 2012          Actual   45.1    Forecast  43.5   Beat   (The Source of these statistics was the Forex Factory).</em>\r\n\r\nI am only citing Manufacturing PMi but this is a great benchmark indicator on raw material purchases, current market conditions and it is a great indicator of a country\'s economic health. It is not exciting reading, it shows that that the German economy is continuing to struggle. Remember the German government stated that Germany had turned the corner following misses in February, March, April, May, June and July 2012. It is NOT that simple or straightforward as the numbers show.\r\n\r\nBear in mind that in the final quarter of 2012 the German economy shrank by 0.6%.\r\n\r\nIn addition, remember Germany also goes to the polls later this year.\r\n\r\nThe fundamentals are not winning anyone over.\r\n\r\n<strong>B - FRANCE: Main supplier of cheese and wine to the Eurozone summits (Second largest economy in the Eurozone).</strong>\r\n\r\nPMi in France is a bloody disaster. Out of the past six months it has beat only  once in November 2012.\r\n\r\n<em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\">February 2013        Actual 43.6    Forecast 43.9    Miss\r\n</em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\">January 2013         Actual 42.9    Forecast  44.9   Miss\r\n</em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\">December 2012     Actual 42.9   Forecast 44.9    Miss\r\n</em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\">November  2012    Actual 44.7   Forecast  44.1   Beat\r\n</em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\">October 2012         Actual  43.5   Forecast  43.9   Miss\r\n</em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\">September 2012    Actual   42.6   Forecast  46.5   Miss\r\n</em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\">August 2012          Actual   46.2    Forecast  43.7   Beat   (The Source of these statistics was the Forex Factory)</em>  \r\n\r\nNot pleasant reading and considering Sarkozy was booted out for Hollande........it\'s shown that the promises supplied to the electorate to use for voting preferences were maybe not that straightforward an option as first thought. Given that France is the second largest economy in the Eurozone it is having a difficult time.\r\n\r\nThe risk of social unrest (riots to you and me) in France are massive. The public deficit is set to be even worse than that of 2012. In 2013 it is now predicted to come in at 3.7% of output and in 2014 even higher at 3.9%.  France has been due in 2013 to be back within the EU\'s deficit ceiling of 3.0% of output...that ship has long sailed. In fact Hollande is at Charles de Gaulle airport expecting his boat to miraculously dock at Terminal 2F. The gap leaves Hollands looking to Brussels for favours. It should be interesting, he\'ll need more than a few cases of Chateauneuf du Pape and Corton Charlemagne  promised to the next summit to win over the tough standing Angela Merkel....mind you God love her she has elections to contend with later this year. If France flatlines this year on growth Hollande will be in Reims and Ay on the Champagne having parties...but not the Berlusconi type....but your never know......\r\n\r\n<strong>C - ITALY: Home of the party animal Silvio Berlusconi, my favourite wines Sassicia and Brunello di Montalcino (The third largest economy in the Eurozone).</strong>\r\n\r\n2013 the Italian economy is set to shrink by 1.0%\r\n\r\nThis weekend we enter an Italian election, with the outcome far from certain. Boring incumbant, Mario Monti looks like he is never going to win a majority and may not even have the largest party to try and form a coalition with. He is up against the Party Animal and Toga man (lock up your daughters) Berlusconi that has promised to get out  of all this austerity crap and get back to the good old days.\r\n\r\nThen you have a comedian turned politician...there is a joke in there somewhere, most politicians are jokers and comedians to me at the best of times. The \"Five Star Movement\" headed by Beppe Grillo, who promises no coalitions and unity to get back to the good old days without the EU.\r\n\r\nFinally, you have Bersani...can\'t find anything humorous, or any dirt about him, he can\'t be Italian..he must be Finnish or something.\r\n\r\nItalian politics at the forefront this weekend. The result will be so  complicated if no outright winner emerges it may take up to two weeks to sort matters out.\r\n\r\nUnemployment and social unrest in Italy continues to rise, hence the fact \"whackos\" are running for Prime Minister. In December 2012 the rate of unemployment in Italy rose to 11.2%, it represents a month on month rise from January 2011 from a base of 8.1%. Youth unemployment (18-24 year olds) is at 36.6%.\r\n\r\nNo growth, increasing unemployment......get the message.\r\n\r\n<strong>D - SPAIN: Supplier of superior corks to the French wine industry (keeping lower grade for their domestic market) best Olive Oil in Europe and best national football team in the world (The fourth largest economy in the Eurozone).</strong>\r\n\r\nHaving lived in Spain for six years I love the place, the climate is magnificent, although.......infrastructure is a nightmare.\r\n\r\nEconomically, scandals that even have the French opening their eyes wide.......this year the EU\'s Ollie Rehn stating that the Spanish economy will shrink by 1.4%. Rajoy, the Spanish Prime Minister has not uttered much recently due to the number of brown paper envelopes in his office, he is having difficulty locating his telephone!!\r\n\r\nUnemployment, in particular youth unemployment at 55%....overall a record 26% of people actively looking for work cannot find jobs. These are only the official numbers there are so many illegals living in Spain these numbers do NOT reflect the true state of play.\r\n\r\nThe housing market is a complete disaster. So many second and third homes purchased in Spain are up for sale at almost any cost as people try to realise capital. Mortgage arrears out of control, the banking sector in denial.\r\n\r\nRegional debt spiralling out of control.\r\n\r\nWelfare structure cut when more and more people need help and government assistance.\r\n\r\nApart from the above, Spain is in great shape.\r\n\r\n<strong>E - SOME OF THE PERIPHERY COUNTRIES:  Ireland, Greece, Portugal and Cyprus.</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>IRELAND:</strong> The Golden Boy of austerity. Housing still not at the bottom yet. The 100% guarantee of Irish bank deposits soon to be removed completely from personal savings. Unemployment still an issue...........amongst other economic issues.\r\n\r\n<strong>GREECE:</strong>  Youth unemployment now at 60%. The National rate is at 27% or above. The bailout kings of Europe. Another one again soon as the government fails with every attempt to get finances under control when it has minus growth and will have through 2013 and 2014. I read somewhere almost 1,000 Greeks were losing their jobs between November 2011 and November 2012...stagerring.\r\n\r\n<strong>PORTUGAL:</strong> Austerity hitting hard and although the government state that they will not require more EU funding...many, many economists think otherwise and feel it just a matter of time before Frankfurt and Brussels are alerted.\r\n\r\n<strong>CYPRUS:</strong> Now at the table sorting out a bailout.\r\n\r\nIt is a false reality that the Eurozone, along with other countries have been living recently.\r\n\r\nGood economic or bad economic data...it makes no difference the answer is to buy shares, the central banks are printing money like crazy to keep the equity markets inflated. If the greed of the markets is satisfied when the economics can be so poor,it makes little sense to the man on the street fighting to make ends meet. The Forex markets follow this lead in equities most of the time. As traders we examine the technicals on the charts and make trades. Behind all of this, the fundamentals are placed more often than not in a secondary role because technicals do matter probably a bit more to the markets. Every now and then a dose of reality strikes home and someone says WTF are we doing here...forget about the technicals........This economy is down the crapper!!\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, we are there now with the Eurozone.\r\n\r\nI think a break below 1.3140 in the EUR/USD will open up a run at 1.3000. A break through there and I really do think that because nothing has been tackled by the Eurozone politicians effectively, admittedly Super Mario Draghi has done his bit but even he will be somewhat limited, we will see a test of 1.2600 and I think fair value for the EUR/USD lies well below there.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>3. MY CURRENT LONG-TERM TRADES:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nI have no long term trades in play right now.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>4. LOOKING INTO NEXT WEEK THE FUTURE KEY SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS:</strong></span>\r\n\r\n<strong>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3191.</strong> We are in a down trend with this pair. The close this week below 1.3250 is bearish and the fact that we are just 50 pips away from the lows of 1.3140 makes it all looks pretty bleak for the EUR/USD. The worsening economic outlook in the Eurozone and the impending Italian election results will keep the pressure to the downside very much in play. The immediate range is 1.3140 to 1.3250. Beyond these levels the wider support and resistance targets will be 1.3000 to the downside and the critical upside resistance will be at 1.3400.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/EURUSD-M-230213.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1462\" alt=\"EURUSD M 230213\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/EURUSD-M-230213.png\" width=\"660\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.5162.</strong> Following the Moody\'s downgrade, the market reaction in Asia and Europe tomorrow and overnight into Monday will be crucial. I do think that we will see a lower level in the pair but we should also be ready for a bounce. Just how strong the bounce could be is the $64,000 question. I think the likes of 1.5000 is now an extremely important level and if that gives away we will be at 1.4800 pretty quickly. Initial upside resistance at 1.5250 has held for the past few days, so the bounce may be contained there. If  the response in London Monday is f**k the US rating agency, we could see 1.5400. My feelings are 1.5000 is more likely but.....who knows??\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/GBPUSD-D-230213.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1463\" alt=\"GBPUSD D 230213\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/GBPUSD-D-230213.png\" width=\"660\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/GBPUSD-M-230213.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1464\" alt=\"GBPUSD M 230213\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/GBPUSD-M-230213.png\" width=\"660\"/></a>\r\n\r\n<strong>AUD/USD: Closing Price 1.0319.</strong> RBA Governor Stevens talked up this pair on Thursday and it was very well supported yesterday. I heard that on CNBC Brian Kelly was looking to play this pair long opposite Gold to 1.0800. Jesus, Mary and Joseph......I am completely 100% opposite him on this trade. I see more downward pressure on the AUD/USD over the coming months. The 1.0600 level has held so many times, in fact, 1.0500 has been great resistance. Bear in mind, as equities have risen recently, the divergence in the AUD/USD has been more than remarkable. Equities have risen, the AUD/USD has dropped. As long as 1.0375 to the upside holds, I think that the downside  pressure will return. The next support will be 1.0260 followed by 1.0150 then look out for lower levels as I think Gold will fall to test $1400. My longer term thoughts on the AUD/USD is sub parity around 0.9800.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.comv/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/AUDUSD-240-230213.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1461\" alt=\"AUDUSD 240 230213\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/AUDUSD-240-230213.png\" width=\"660\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8379.</strong> We closed yesterday just below 0.8400. This is a great area to try to enter short if it holds, it could offer a great risk/reward to much lower levels as the NZD would be dragged lower if the AUD falls. A break above 0.8435 and then all bets are off.  0.8375 to 0.8435 is the immediate range that I am looking at. I do fear a move above 0.8435 will test 0.8520 or maybe even higher. We are at a critical point with this pair. If it falls, in line with the AUD/USD 0.8000 would be my longer term target.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/NZDUSD-D-230213.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1465\" alt=\"NZDUSD D 230213\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/NZDUSD-D-230213.png\" width=\"660\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.0213.</strong> Yesterday this pair failed to capitalise on its move towards 1.0260 then 1.0280, with it pulling back towards 1.0200. Positively, we are last on the cusp of a breakout that looks like it could get some legs. Longer term, I think this pair will be trading above 1.0450-1.0600 maybe even up towards 1.1000....who knows? If the EUR/USD really falls away and the US$ index gains in strength away for $82 to say $86 or $89 as some analysts predict, the dizzy heights of 1.0600 is not so weird. For now 1.0100 to 1.0280 is the range to play the breakouts from.\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.9295.</strong> I am not getting in any way excited with this pair until the well established range is broken one way or the other 0.9250 support to 0.9350 resistance.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/USDCHF-240-230213.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1467\" alt=\"USDCHF 240 230213\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/USDCHF-240-230213.png\" width=\"660\"  /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/JPY: Closing Price 93.41.</strong> The trade of 2013 has now entered consolidation mode. We have a defined trend line and top end of the range to measure. Support is at 92.70 and resistance is at 94.00.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/USDJPY-D-230213.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1468\" alt=\"USDJPY D 230213\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/USDJPY-D-230213.png\" width=\"660\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>5. MAJOR NEWS EVENTS THAT INTEREST ME OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nSUNDAY: EUR - Italian Elections.\r\nSUNDAY: CNY - HSBC Manufacturing PMi.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: EUR - Italian Elections.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD - Bernanke testimony.\r\nWEDNESDAY: EUR - Draghi speaks.\r\nWEDNESDAY : AUD - Private Capital expenditure.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: CNY - PMi data.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: GBP - PMi data.\r\nFRIDAY: USD - PMi data.\r\nFRIDAY: CAD - GDP.\r\nFRIDAY: USD - Bernanke testimony.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>6. CLOSING THOUGHTS AND FINAL COMMENTS:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nThere is a great deal of volatility on the horizon so look out.\r\n\r\nThe GBP and EUR should provide some spice in the early part of the week. The AUD news on Wednesday should give guidance to the RBA on whether they ease or not. The China PMi data........its going to be a long week and I predict some sleepless nights, burning the early hours oil with lots of coffee......jack and diets included.\r\n\r\nSo as always be careful placing trades, my ten cents would be to trade in very small positions with wider stops to cope with the volatility that will be happening. I think this week could be a sit over your computer all the time week. Take it to the bathroom with you as moves in the market given the backdrop will be swift and as usual in the Forex market totally unforgiving.\r\n\r\nGood luck,\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nSaturday 23rd February 2013.','ALL EYES ON THE EURO....FUNDAMENTALS DO MATTER','','publish','open','closed','','all-eyes-on-the-euro-fundamentals-do-matter','','','2014-01-20 13:56:42','2014-01-20 18:56:42','',0,'http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/?p=1439',0,'post','',0),(3072,16,'2014-01-20 13:56:42','2014-01-20 18:56:42','<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>1. INTRODUCTION:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nI\'m back....\r\n\r\nThree weeks of flu has really had me up the wall.\r\n\r\nDespite being somewhat out of it, I have been watching the markets from a distance, observing and towards the end of this past week I have been back to 50% trading. Including our vacation in Europe and Hong Kong it has been literally four weeks away from full-time trading. What I have noticed though is that for the most part in my absence the Fx markets have been trading in fairly tight ranges and it is only very, very recently that it looks like we are finally ready to break free and see a little bit of volatility.\r\n\r\nEven the USD/JPY, which had been on the tear is now in a range as it appears that old Shinzo has decided that the run to 93.00 is about right.....and fair.....but fair for who? Not to be too cynical but his latest comments followed the recent G7 and G20 meetings or  \"Cheese and Wine\" parties.\r\n\r\nAh, the denial of currency wars in the G7 is about the same as Ahmadinejad\'s denial of the holocaust. Unbelievable, I watched George Osborne, UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, squirming on TV under scrutiny over the \"wishy-washy\" press release. That certainly cheered me up...I love watching politicians on the ropes trying to defend the indefensible and deny the undeniable....oh...happy days!!\r\n\r\nFinally, the Friday afternoon rating agencies announcement this time went to Moody\'s who downgraded the UK debt rating to Aa1 from AAA.....\r\nThe ramifications of this will be hugely different from the US and French downgrades. London relies on the financial markets so much and is such a huge percentage within the FTSE, this move will have the effect of creating big waves. Yesterday at the end of the day literally the last gasp of the Fx market, the GBP/USD sold off 75 pips in 30 minutes. I do not want to appear to be a drama queen but we may test 1.5000 in the London session (overnight Sunday tomorrow) if the reaction in Europe is really negative. Then again many would argue that the markets will simply shrug this news off as the rating agencies count for nothing, and many people will argue that that this downgrade was to a large effect already priced in given the huge move lower in the GBP/USD over the past 10 days. We may see what is called \"The Revenge Bounce\", who knows, and, if we do, how far could cable pull back....1.5400.....who knows? We will wait and see the reaction....no sleep for me tomorrow!!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>2. THE VIEW FROM MY TRADING DESK:</strong></span>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>ALL EYES ON THE EURO....FUNDAMENTALS DO MATTER</strong></p>\r\nOver the past twelve months I have been consistently blogging about how much the Eurozone economies, in fact, the Eurozone  are down the toilet.\r\n\r\nThe constant non-productive summits (wine tastings to you and I), the totally ineffective Eurozone treaties and the numpty politicians when added together provide what can only be described as the biggest recipe for disaster that would even have world acclaimed best chef ever, Gordon Ramsey running for new expletives other than the \"F\" word. But his comments right now if  he were at a Eurozone summit would be along the lines of: -\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 150px;\"><em>What the f**k was that comment Draghi made about the OMT all about, we do not f**king understand that f**king man?</em>\r\n<em> Who the f**k do they think they f**king are in the UK, tell that Cameron to f**k off!</em>\r\n<em> Are they f**king smoking something in f**king Greece?</em>\r\n<em> What is all the F**cking worry over the f**king GDP about anyway, its the f**king fact no one has a f**king job is what they should f**king  focus on?</em>\r\n<em> Who\'s f**king idea was it to have a f**king single f**king currency anyhow...f**king idiots.</em>\r\n<em> Pass me the f**king wine...I need another f**king drink..f**king plonkers.</em></p>\r\nYou get the idea...\r\n\r\nFundamentals always matter, it not just technicals. Eventually  the chickens come home to roost and the all ducks line up. Let\'s look at the Eurozone right now, at a macro level (this will not be too detailed for obvious reasons).\r\n\r\n<strong>A - GERMANY: The power house, the work horse, the leader of the Eurozone and dominant economy. (The largest economy in the Eurozone)</strong>\r\n\r\nThis weeks, February \"Flash Manufacturing PMi\" came is at  50.1 versus the consensus of  50.4 ...whilst over the contracting line of 50...still a miss.\r\n\r\nThe previous monthly results from August through to December  2012 were as follows:\r\n\r\nJanuary 2013         Actual 48.8    Forecast  47.1  Beat\r\nDecember 2012     Actual 46.3    Forecast 47.1    Miss\r\nNovember  2012    Actual 48.8   Forecast  45.9   Beat\r\nOctober 2012         Actual  45.7   Forecast  48.1   Miss\r\n<em id=\"__mceDel\">September 2012    Actual   47.3   Forecast  45.4   Beat\r\n</em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\">August 2012          Actual   45.1    Forecast  43.5   Beat   (The Source of these statistics was the Forex Factory).</em>\r\n\r\nI am only citing Manufacturing PMi but this is a great benchmark indicator on raw material purchases, current market conditions and it is a great indicator of a country\'s economic health. It is not exciting reading, it shows that that the German economy is continuing to struggle. Remember the German government stated that Germany had turned the corner following misses in February, March, April, May, June and July 2012. It is NOT that simple or straightforward as the numbers show.\r\n\r\nBear in mind that in the final quarter of 2012 the German economy shrank by 0.6%.\r\n\r\nIn addition, remember Germany also goes to the polls later this year.\r\n\r\nThe fundamentals are not winning anyone over.\r\n\r\n<strong>B - FRANCE: Main supplier of cheese and wine to the Eurozone summits (Second largest economy in the Eurozone).</strong>\r\n\r\nPMi in France is a bloody disaster. Out of the past six months it has beat only  once in November 2012.\r\n\r\n<em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\">February 2013        Actual 43.6    Forecast 43.9    Miss\r\n</em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\">January 2013         Actual 42.9    Forecast  44.9   Miss\r\n</em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\">December 2012     Actual 42.9   Forecast 44.9    Miss\r\n</em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\">November  2012    Actual 44.7   Forecast  44.1   Beat\r\n</em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\">October 2012         Actual  43.5   Forecast  43.9   Miss\r\n</em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\">September 2012    Actual   42.6   Forecast  46.5   Miss\r\n</em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\">August 2012          Actual   46.2    Forecast  43.7   Beat   (The Source of these statistics was the Forex Factory)</em>  \r\n\r\nNot pleasant reading and considering Sarkozy was booted out for Hollande........it\'s shown that the promises supplied to the electorate to use for voting preferences were maybe not that straightforward an option as first thought. Given that France is the second largest economy in the Eurozone it is having a difficult time.\r\n\r\nThe risk of social unrest (riots to you and me) in France are massive. The public deficit is set to be even worse than that of 2012. In 2013 it is now predicted to come in at 3.7% of output and in 2014 even higher at 3.9%.  France has been due in 2013 to be back within the EU\'s deficit ceiling of 3.0% of output...that ship has long sailed. In fact Hollande is at Charles de Gaulle airport expecting his boat to miraculously dock at Terminal 2F. The gap leaves Hollands looking to Brussels for favours. It should be interesting, he\'ll need more than a few cases of Chateauneuf du Pape and Corton Charlemagne  promised to the next summit to win over the tough standing Angela Merkel....mind you God love her she has elections to contend with later this year. If France flatlines this year on growth Hollande will be in Reims and Ay on the Champagne having parties...but not the Berlusconi type....but your never know......\r\n\r\n<strong>C - ITALY: Home of the party animal Silvio Berlusconi, my favourite wines Sassicia and Brunello di Montalcino (The third largest economy in the Eurozone).</strong>\r\n\r\n2013 the Italian economy is set to shrink by 1.0%\r\n\r\nThis weekend we enter an Italian election, with the outcome far from certain. Boring incumbant, Mario Monti looks like he is never going to win a majority and may not even have the largest party to try and form a coalition with. He is up against the Party Animal and Toga man (lock up your daughters) Berlusconi that has promised to get out  of all this austerity crap and get back to the good old days.\r\n\r\nThen you have a comedian turned politician...there is a joke in there somewhere, most politicians are jokers and comedians to me at the best of times. The \"Five Star Movement\" headed by Beppe Grillo, who promises no coalitions and unity to get back to the good old days without the EU.\r\n\r\nFinally, you have Bersani...can\'t find anything humorous, or any dirt about him, he can\'t be Italian..he must be Finnish or something.\r\n\r\nItalian politics at the forefront this weekend. The result will be so  complicated if no outright winner emerges it may take up to two weeks to sort matters out.\r\n\r\nUnemployment and social unrest in Italy continues to rise, hence the fact \"whackos\" are running for Prime Minister. In December 2012 the rate of unemployment in Italy rose to 11.2%, it represents a month on month rise from January 2011 from a base of 8.1%. Youth unemployment (18-24 year olds) is at 36.6%.\r\n\r\nNo growth, increasing unemployment......get the message.\r\n\r\n<strong>D - SPAIN: Supplier of superior corks to the French wine industry (keeping lower grade for their domestic market) best Olive Oil in Europe and best national football team in the world (The fourth largest economy in the Eurozone).</strong>\r\n\r\nHaving lived in Spain for six years I love the place, the climate is magnificent, although.......infrastructure is a nightmare.\r\n\r\nEconomically, scandals that even have the French opening their eyes wide.......this year the EU\'s Ollie Rehn stating that the Spanish economy will shrink by 1.4%. Rajoy, the Spanish Prime Minister has not uttered much recently due to the number of brown paper envelopes in his office, he is having difficulty locating his telephone!!\r\n\r\nUnemployment, in particular youth unemployment at 55%....overall a record 26% of people actively looking for work cannot find jobs. These are only the official numbers there are so many illegals living in Spain these numbers do NOT reflect the true state of play.\r\n\r\nThe housing market is a complete disaster. So many second and third homes purchased in Spain are up for sale at almost any cost as people try to realise capital. Mortgage arrears out of control, the banking sector in denial.\r\n\r\nRegional debt spiralling out of control.\r\n\r\nWelfare structure cut when more and more people need help and government assistance.\r\n\r\nApart from the above, Spain is in great shape.\r\n\r\n<strong>E - SOME OF THE PERIPHERY COUNTRIES:  Ireland, Greece, Portugal and Cyprus.</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>IRELAND:</strong> The Golden Boy of austerity. Housing still not at the bottom yet. The 100% guarantee of Irish bank deposits soon to be removed completely from personal savings. Unemployment still an issue...........amongst other economic issues.\r\n\r\n<strong>GREECE:</strong>  Youth unemployment now at 60%. The National rate is at 27% or above. The bailout kings of Europe. Another one again soon as the government fails with every attempt to get finances under control when it has minus growth and will have through 2013 and 2014. I read somewhere almost 1,000 Greeks were losing their jobs between November 2011 and November 2012...stagerring.\r\n\r\n<strong>PORTUGAL:</strong> Austerity hitting hard and although the government state that they will not require more EU funding...many, many economists think otherwise and feel it just a matter of time before Frankfurt and Brussels are alerted.\r\n\r\n<strong>CYPRUS:</strong> Now at the table sorting out a bailout.\r\n\r\nIt is a false reality that the Eurozone, along with other countries have been living recently.\r\n\r\nGood economic or bad economic data...it makes no difference the answer is to buy shares, the central banks are printing money like crazy to keep the equity markets inflated. If the greed of the markets is satisfied when the economics can be so poor,it makes little sense to the man on the street fighting to make ends meet. The Forex markets follow this lead in equities most of the time. As traders we examine the technicals on the charts and make trades. Behind all of this, the fundamentals are placed more often than not in a secondary role because technicals do matter probably a bit more to the markets. Every now and then a dose of reality strikes home and someone says WTF are we doing here...forget about the technicals........This economy is down the crapper!!\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, we are there now with the Eurozone.\r\n\r\nI think a break below 1.3140 in the EUR/USD will open up a run at 1.3000. A break through there and I really do think that because nothing has been tackled by the Eurozone politicians effectively, admittedly Super Mario Draghi has done his bit but even he will be somewhat limited, we will see a test of 1.2600 and I think fair value for the EUR/USD lies well below there.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>3. MY CURRENT LONG-TERM TRADES:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nI have no long term trades in play right now.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>4. LOOKING INTO NEXT WEEK THE FUTURE KEY SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS:</strong></span>\r\n\r\n<strong>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3191.</strong> We are in a down trend with this pair. The close this week below 1.3250 is bearish and the fact that we are just 50 pips away from the lows of 1.3140 makes it all looks pretty bleak for the EUR/USD. The worsening economic outlook in the Eurozone and the impending Italian election results will keep the pressure to the downside very much in play. The immediate range is 1.3140 to 1.3250. Beyond these levels the wider support and resistance targets will be 1.3000 to the downside and the critical upside resistance will be at 1.3400.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/EURUSD-M-230213.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1462\" alt=\"EURUSD M 230213\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/EURUSD-M-230213.png\" width=\"660\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.5162.</strong> Following the Moody\'s downgrade, the market reaction in Asia and Europe tomorrow and overnight into Monday will be crucial. I do think that we will see a lower level in the pair but we should also be ready for a bounce. Just how strong the bounce could be is the $64,000 question. I think the likes of 1.5000 is now an extremely important level and if that gives away we will be at 1.4800 pretty quickly. Initial upside resistance at 1.5250 has held for the past few days, so the bounce may be contained there. If  the response in London Monday is f**k the US rating agency, we could see 1.5400. My feelings are 1.5000 is more likely but.....who knows??\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/GBPUSD-D-230213.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1463\" alt=\"GBPUSD D 230213\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/GBPUSD-D-230213.png\" width=\"660\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/GBPUSD-M-230213.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1464\" alt=\"GBPUSD M 230213\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/GBPUSD-M-230213.png\" width=\"660\"/></a>\r\n\r\n<strong>AUD/USD: Closing Price 1.0319.</strong> RBA Governor Stevens talked up this pair on Thursday and it was very well supported yesterday. I heard that on CNBC Brian Kelly was looking to play this pair long opposite Gold to 1.0800. Jesus, Mary and Joseph......I am completely 100% opposite him on this trade. I see more downward pressure on the AUD/USD over the coming months. The 1.0600 level has held so many times, in fact, 1.0500 has been great resistance. Bear in mind, as equities have risen recently, the divergence in the AUD/USD has been more than remarkable. Equities have risen, the AUD/USD has dropped. As long as 1.0375 to the upside holds, I think that the downside  pressure will return. The next support will be 1.0260 followed by 1.0150 then look out for lower levels as I think Gold will fall to test $1400. My longer term thoughts on the AUD/USD is sub parity around 0.9800.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.comv/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/AUDUSD-240-230213.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1461\" alt=\"AUDUSD 240 230213\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/AUDUSD-240-230213.png\" width=\"660\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8379.</strong> We closed yesterday just below 0.8400. This is a great area to try to enter short if it holds, it could offer a great risk/reward to much lower levels as the NZD would be dragged lower if the AUD falls. A break above 0.8435 and then all bets are off.  0.8375 to 0.8435 is the immediate range that I am looking at. I do fear a move above 0.8435 will test 0.8520 or maybe even higher. We are at a critical point with this pair. If it falls, in line with the AUD/USD 0.8000 would be my longer term target.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/NZDUSD-D-230213.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1465\" alt=\"NZDUSD D 230213\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/NZDUSD-D-230213.png\" width=\"660\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.0213.</strong> Yesterday this pair failed to capitalise on its move towards 1.0260 then 1.0280, with it pulling back towards 1.0200. Positively, we are last on the cusp of a breakout that looks like it could get some legs. Longer term, I think this pair will be trading above 1.0450-1.0600 maybe even up towards 1.1000....who knows? If the EUR/USD really falls away and the US$ index gains in strength away for $82 to say $86 or $89 as some analysts predict, the dizzy heights of 1.0600 is not so weird. For now 1.0100 to 1.0280 is the range to play the breakouts from.\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.9295.</strong> I am not getting in any way excited with this pair until the well established range is broken one way or the other 0.9250 support to 0.9350 resistance.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/USDCHF-240-230213.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1467\" alt=\"USDCHF 240 230213\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/USDCHF-240-230213.png\" width=\"660\"  /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/JPY: Closing Price 93.41.</strong> The trade of 2013 has now entered consolidation mode. We have a defined trend line and top end of the range to measure. Support is at 92.70 and resistance is at 94.00.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/USDJPY-D-230213.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1468\" alt=\"USDJPY D 230213\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/USDJPY-D-230213.png\" width=\"660\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>5. MAJOR NEWS EVENTS THAT INTEREST ME OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nSUNDAY: EUR - Italian Elections.\r\nSUNDAY: CNY - HSBC Manufacturing PMi.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: EUR - Italian Elections.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD - Bernanke testimony.\r\nWEDNESDAY: EUR - Draghi speaks.\r\nWEDNESDAY : AUD - Private Capital expenditure.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: CNY - PMi data.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: GBP - PMi data.\r\nFRIDAY: USD - PMi data.\r\nFRIDAY: CAD - GDP.\r\nFRIDAY: USD - Bernanke testimony.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>6. CLOSING THOUGHTS AND FINAL COMMENTS:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nThere is a great deal of volatility on the horizon so look out.\r\n\r\nThe GBP and EUR should provide some spice in the early part of the week. The AUD news on Wednesday should give guidance to the RBA on whether they ease or not. The China PMi data........its going to be a long week and I predict some sleepless nights, burning the early hours oil with lots of coffee......jack and diets included.\r\n\r\nSo as always be careful placing trades, my ten cents would be to trade in very small positions with wider stops to cope with the volatility that will be happening. I think this week could be a sit over your computer all the time week. Take it to the bathroom with you as moves in the market given the backdrop will be swift and as usual in the Forex market totally unforgiving.\r\n\r\nGood luck,\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nSaturday 23rd February 2013.','ALL EYES ON THE EURO....FUNDAMENTALS DO MATTER','','inherit','open','closed','','1439-revision-v1','','','2014-01-20 13:56:42','2014-01-20 18:56:42','',1439,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/1439-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(1403,1,'2013-01-25 23:14:40','2013-01-26 04:14:40','<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>1. INTRODUCTION:</strong></span>\n\nThe title of this week\'s blog says it all. I am predominantly a USD major trader because of my timezone location and therefore I have been a little bored of late. As you know I will not chase currencies up or down so I have been limited in trades/tweets/thoughts...as we have been a little range bound to say the least. Yesterday, may well be the break that I have been waiting three weeks for.\n\nThis period of masterly inactivity has given me time to review many articles, many, many chart patterns have been examined, and these have resulted in me taking on a couple of exotic trades that hopefully will bear fruit over the coming two/three weeks. I bought and then took profits and re-entered positions...my usual attack to give me profits and then I can let them run. These are high volume/volatile trades so not my usual style but never say never!!\n\nI wrote a few months ago that I thought that we were at a crossroads regarding the relationships/correlations and divergences between equities/forex/bonds markets. I may have been a little premature....but now the ducks (like in a fairground) are once again falling into line. If you check back over old blog posts you will see the comments made on the 20th October 2012 ,(I used chickens coming home to roost at that time rather than ducks in a row!!)   are pretty much to my way of thinking still valid today. I am looking for USD strength to come back into play. It may just be across commodity currencies in the first instance but I do think the longer term play given the diminishing returns that all the Central bank intervention gives the markets, will make for a stronger USD -  time will tell.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>2. THE VIEW FROM MY TRADING DESK:</strong></span>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>IF YOU TRADE JUST THE USD MAJORS (IGNORING THE JPY)....YOU MUST BE BORED STUPID....BUT MAYBE THERE IS A LIGHT ON THE HORIZON!</strong></p>\nMoving to live in Canada, I kind of just fell into trading the USD major currencies as my base currencies to trade and I started to treat anything non USD based as exotic. I know it\'s a mindset but I found that trading pairs with a home base in my timezone just made sense to me. If you trade like pairs, you must be like myself bored stupid with this range bound market. I know we see little pockets of movement but in reality we are somewhat range bound across all the USD pairs , with the exception being the USD/JPY. Even with this pair, I will not chase at such elevated levels. I am waiting for a pullback to get a better entry price, somewhere around 86.00. With it\'s relentless weakening plus the accompanying volatility it just doesn\'t fit my trading approach via my trading plan.\n\nSo in summary, I have not really been trading much apart from pullback trading to scalp a few pips. Therefore, as a result my tweeting has also been limited.\n\nBut maybe there is a light on the horizon. Many, many times, I have written and tweeted that commodities lead the way and that my lead indicators that I research and examine every morning, every night, in fact every time that I look at my trading computers, just may be telling us something, because of  the non correlations in the markets.\n\nWhat are my lead indicators: - \"The Holy Trinity\" (Gold, Oil and Copper), are my commodities and the USD/CAD, USD/NOK and AUD/USD are my three main currencies that I check out, and, in addition I look at $US 10 year notes (/ZN#O).\n\nI could write for quite a long time taking each lead indicator individually, however for the sole purpose of trying to keep the blog a fast 15 minute read I will write a few lines about just one them to highlight my thoughts.\n\nAUD/USD: Keeping it very simple, in the past two/three weeks the equity markets in the U.S. have kept a relentless grind upwards in play with the S&amp;P achieving 5 year highs on a number of occasions. Every time the S&amp;P squeezed higher, say over a three/four period where the S&amp;P rose 20 points you would usually expect the AUD/USD to rise 100 pips. We have been struggling to rise! In fact, the range of 1.0500 to 1.0630 was broken to the downside following the best Chinese PMi data for almost 2 years. This lack of correlation between the AUD/USD and the S&amp;P and the reaction to Chinese PMi data shows that all is not what it should be. The mere fact that the AUD/USD is testing 1.0400 and the S&amp;P testing 1500 says it all.\n\nThe AUD/USD can lead the way by two/three weeks, but this disconnect is worth noting. Copper is not rising either on the back of improving Chinese data.\n\nWe must also bear in my if the S&amp;P finally hits 1500...would this then spark some profit taking and then result in a pullback. If the AUD/USD failed to rise on an upward grind in equities, can you just imagine what would happen if there was an equity market sell off?\n\nI think that with the markets being liquified so much by central bank intervention, the \"Currency Wars\" that are now taking place are having a nullifying effect across the forex market. The only result of this that I can see is USD strength in the short to medium term. Every country wants a weaker currency to improve exporting conditions and time will tell, but with the FIFO (First in First out) logic in place and with improving economic data in the U.S. the FED has already indicated that QE  to infinity does not mean forever, and that sooner or later, with improving economic and unemployment conditions, QE will end and interest rates will rise. This is why I think that the USD will strengthen.\n\nThe equity markets know that they will not be supported forever, and once the 1500 S&amp;P target is hit, maybe this will be the catalyst to send equities lower?\n\nThe AUD/USD is not acting normally and this should be noted. This is why I believe that there may be light at the end of the tunnel. If the Aussie rips higher or tears lower we will see the range bound market in USD majors busted as being a lead indicator the markets will react.\n\nRemember, commodities lead the way.......watch \"The Holy Trinity\", then the Commodity currencies, then bonds......remember equities will always be the last to the party.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>3. MY LONG TERM TRADES:</strong></span>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>USD/CAD</strong>\n<strong>Long</strong>\n<strong>Entry Cost Average: 1.0016</strong>\n<strong>Position Size: 20%</strong>\n<strong>Closing Price: 1.0055</strong>\n<strong>Stop Loss level: 0.9870</strong>\n<strong>Limit/Take Profit target: 1.0350</strong>\n<strong>Current position: +39 pips</strong></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Finally the \"Loonie\" has broken higher. I do think that this pair will run higher. The EUR cross rate effect of the EUR/CAD is helping...plus the bad statistics on CPi yesterday did not help stop the move upwards.</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>AUD/USD</strong>\n<strong>Short</strong>\n<strong>Entry Cost Average: 1.0470</strong>\n<strong>Position Size: 20%</strong>\n<strong>Closing Price: 1.0424</strong>\n<strong>Stop Loss level: 1.0630</strong>\n<strong>Limit/Take Profit target: 0.9850</strong>\n<strong>Current position: +46 pips</strong></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">I am expecting a whoooooosh!! lower in this pair soon. I may be proved wrong but for reasons already discussed in this weeks blog, I think that this pair will drive lower in coming sessions. I am completely different in opinion to \"Money in Motion\" experts on CNBC!!</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>EUR/AUD</strong>\n<strong>Long:</strong>\n<strong>Entry Cost Average: 1.2876</strong>\n<strong>Position Size: 20%</strong>\n<strong>Closing Price:  1.2905</strong>\n<strong>Stop Loss level: 1.2550</strong>\n<strong>Limit/Take Profit target: 1.4170</strong>\n<strong>Current position: +29 pips</strong></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">I am a little late to the party with this pair...I looked....looked.... and looked again to confirm the move, waited for a kind of pullback and then leaped in. I am about 200 pips away from when I first thought Ah-Ha!! We are in a massive period of unwinding a carry trade with this pair. In fact its about 3 years plus of unwinding that I think we are about to see. So to be 200 pips late given the size of the move is not the worst place to be.</p>\nOn the daily chart there is an inverted \"Head and Shoulders\" pattern. Once this pair clears about 1.3000, it looks like the measured move will be on to just under 1.4200. That is 1200 pips or so from now.\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>EUR/NZD</strong>\n<strong>Long:</strong>\n<strong>Entry Cost Average: 1.6069</strong>\n<strong>Position Size: 20%</strong>\n<strong>Closing Price: 1.6063</strong>\n<strong>Stop Loss level: 1.5850</strong>\n<strong>Limit/Take Profit target: 1.7000</strong>\n<strong>Current position: - 6 pips</strong></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">The level that I am glued to is 1.6250. A break through here and my target of 1.7100 comes into play. This trade will motor if the equity markets start to sell off as the Kiwi should fall away and drop like a brick off the side of a house!! Looking forward!!</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>4. LOOKING AHEAD THE KEY SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS IN THE USD MAJORS:</strong></span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3463.</strong>  We are finally breaking out of the channel that has held this pair captive. 1.3250 to 1.3400. The only negative point is that 1.3480-1.3495 has confluences of major resistance. We will need a big push at those levels to move on to 1.3600. We never achieved this yesterday despite all the hoo-hah yesterday morning.</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.5798.</strong>  The UK economy is down the toilet. The only reason that cable rallied on bad news yesterday was the cross-rate effect that was placed on the other GBP pairs and the EUR/GBP. The range that has my attention is 1.5750 to 1.5900. A break below 1.5750 and look out there are long drops ahead. I was surprised though that we did not close well below 1.5800. I would not however get any bullish thoughts unless we break above 1.5870.</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>AUD/USD: Closing Price 1.0424.</strong>  Finally a break out of the range 1.0500 to 1.0630. If equities turn lower this pair is going to drop like a lead balloon. It fails to go up when equities rally so if equities turn...whooooosh!!. We are now testing 1.0400 to the downside, this a key level. This currency pair is key to me is absolutely crucial to the markets as we move forward.</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>NZD/USD: Closing Price  0.8376.  </strong>This is a very stubborn pair but like the Aussie, if equities turn lower so should this pair. 0.8300 to 0.8400 is my range.</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>USD/JPY: Closing Price 90.84.</strong> The relentless grind higher goes on. Not really sure where support and resistance lies now. The divergence in relative strength means nothing with this pair as we keep moving higher. On the Daily chart there is an inverted \"Head and Shoulders\" pattern that is in play. The measured move for it to play out is 92.40. Maybe this will be the stopping point. We will get periods of consolidation along the way, but we did have a 300 Yen rise in two days on Thursday and Friday, so bear that in mind also. Support is back at 90.00.</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.9260.</strong> This pair  bounced off trend line support at 0.9220 overnight on Thursday. This is good support. Beneath here is really 0.9150. Long side resistance should be good at 0.9300 and 0.9350 (sorry for the round numbers).</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>USD/CAD: Closing Price  1.0055.</strong> Finally a breakout to the upside. BOC change in tone and some weaker statistics via news events has finally made its mark on this pair. After 1.0100 then 1.0150 and 1.0250 are keys to the upside. Support is good at parity then 0.9930 and then the pain in the neck level of 0.9880.</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>5. NEWS EVENTS THAT INTEREST ME THIS COMING WEEK:</strong></span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Some big items in the news for news: -</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">WEDNESDAY: USD - ADP Non Farm Employment Change.\nWEDNESDAY:  USD - The FED - FOMC Statement\nWEDNESDAY:  NZD -  Cash Rate and RBNZ Rate Statement</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">THURSDAY: CAD - GDP m/m\nTHURSDAY: AUD - PPi q/q\nTHURSDAY: CNY - Manufacturing PMi</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">FRIDAY: USD - Non Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate.</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>6. CLOSING THOUGHTS:</strong></span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">I am in four long term trades at the present time, but they are very small positions given the fact that the week ahead has the potential to switch the markets in an instant.  I will say it again, I think we are at a crossroads. Price action will be extremely choppy so more than ever trade risk within your account capabilities and trade smaller lots with wider stops to cope with increased volatility.</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Good Luck and happy trading.</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Scott Pickering\nThe Pip Accumulator\nSaturday 26th January 2013.</p>','IF YOU TRADE THE USD MAJORS (IGNORING THE JPY)....YOU MUST BE BORED STUPID....BUT MAYBE THERE IS A LIGHT ON THE HORIZON!','','publish','open','open','','if-you-trade-the-usd-majors-ignoring-the-jpy-you-must-be-bored-stupid-but-maybe-there-is-a-light-on-the-horizon','','','2013-01-25 23:14:40','2013-01-26 04:14:40','',0,'http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/?p=1403',0,'post','',0),(1384,1,'2013-01-19 10:12:10','2013-01-19 15:12:10','<strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">1. INTRODUCTION:</span></strong>\n\nAnother week into 2013 and I am both frustrated and  bored with the Forex markets.\n\nI am making money but......... because in the past when I first started trading, I used to make so many silly moves to enter trades, and, I was burnt so many times on entering long at the top,  and short at the bottom of moves, I vowed once I got my head and brain in gear never to do this again. Adopting this discipline, I must have watched $1,000\'s of dollars pass me by on the  numerous JPY trades that I could have just jumped into gone long and closed my eyes. For this reason I am frustrated. My trading plan, from which I am now very disciplined by, is clear and unambiguous......\"NO CHASING TRADES\" so I don\'t.\n\nThe relentless rise/weakness in the Yen has been without doubt the big trade of 2013 so far. I talked about it\'s possibility via this blog in 2012 and made good money in the early stages of the move but the last 300-400 pips have passed me by. It\'s enough to drive you to drink if you were weak....can you imagine then how I felt when the unwinding trade of the year took off and caught almost the entire trading community by surprise. Yes, the EUR/CHF has started to unwind..........500 pips in 6/7 days....I completely missed this move, although on the first day of the move, maybe 7/8 days ago, I remember tweeting something along the lines of  \"Why is the EUR/CHF moving? Groups in Switzerland were calling for the peg to be raised to 1.2500 from the existing level of 1.2000. During the past week it hit 1.2500 but pulled back yesterday to rest at 1.2440.\n\nAs mentioned in last weeks blog, I am currently trading and have made $$$ out of the GBP/USD short and I still see further downside potential. After the China GDP release on Thursday night, I went short on the AUD/USD but never committed to other than a short-term scalping set of trades. I did this on the back of the fact that the numbers were positive and that the knee jerk reaction lower, would be just that, a knee jerk reaction and I did not want to end up being short when after the dust settles the Aussie would be pressing 1.0600!! Well, I got that wrong!!\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>2. THE VIEW FROM MY TRADING DESK:</strong></span>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>THIS IS THE TIME NOT TO CHASE....BUT TO LET THE TRADES COME TO YOU</strong></p>\nI was going to write about my favourite subject; The Eurozone, following UK Prime Minister highly anticipated speech on the UK and the Eurozone that was to have taken place yesterday. By all accounts this 800lb gorilla in the room was about to get more than a bunch of bananas thrown at it. Regretfully, because of the Algerian Hostage on-going situation DC\'s moment in the limelight to savage the Eurozone and its bureaucarcy has been postponed.\n\nInstead, I thought it a good time to look at trading characteristics that sometimes goes unnoticed.\n\nEarly last week I was \"Tweeting\"  about the fact that trading was so range bound and tight and that the Fx markets were being held hostage by the S&amp;P being in such a tight range, maybe it would be a good time to go on a break for a week or so hoping that things might have freed up upon your return.\n\nThe one thing I am exercising so well right now is patience. It has been said so many times that patience is a virtue.....well to be successful in trading the Forex markets you have to demonstrate the ability to be patient. Wait for the trades to meet your criteria before entering a trade.\n\nThis is what trading the Fx markets is all about. You cannot be in every trade and you cannot get in at the lowest level going long nor can you get in at the highest level going short. You will miss trades......many, many trades will pass you by. The key is to keep disciplined and let the trades come to you. Set your levels, set  your exit and manage your risk accordingly. I remember being told sometime ago, You cannot lose money in a trade if you are sitting in cash, a rather obvious statement. It is better to miss out on one trade than risk an entry. In fact, I am getting so disciplined now, I am starting to think of myself being a Risk Assessor/Manager rather than Fx trader. At the end of the day risk assessment is closer to what I am doing.\n\nThere are so many big moves in play right now. All the JPY pairs are relentless in their goal to weaken, there have been so many multi-hundred pip moves, plus the EUR/CHF is on the tear as well as many of the EUR crosses. If you missed the move and like me you will not chase pairs either up or down, you must find the markets a little frustrating. It is better to be frustrated sitting with cash in your broker account that be in a risk trade because you are chasing the market.\n\nI think what has frustrated me more than usual is that the commodity currencies linked to the USD; AUD/USD, NZD/USD and USD/CAD in particular,  pairs I would trade daily, have been so range bound not really moving that I have not been looking at them much. I have my desired entry and exit levels in position but I am having to wait for the movement to come back into the market. This will only happen if the S&amp;P breaks out of it\'s clearly defined trading channel  to the long or to the short side. I do not care which way, I just want a break out!!\n\nThere are major news events on the horizon that will deliver huge volatility to the markets......next week we have the BOJ Policy delivery where the BOJ has to say that they are going to fight tooth and nail for a 2% inflation target.....any wayward delivery and the JPY could be smashed.....Eurozone news has been less headline seeking of late as the cost of government borrowing has decreased, in particular, this is really helping Spain and Italy...but Portugal also. This WILL NOT last forever. As I tweeted and blogged last week nothing has really been fixed in the Eurozone it is just the can has been kicked down the road a little bit further. The U.S. senate and congress are still at loggerheads over the on-going debt and the various cliffs that are in front of the U.S. The republicans appear to be hell bent on creating as much havoc as possible. We could see downgrades from the rating agencies.\n\nThere are plenty of news items that can screw with your trades. Take this time to look around the currency pairs, make notes of interesting levels and create orders..if they trigger all well and good if they do not  - do NOT force them.\n\nI reiterate, now is the time to let the trades come to you - do not rush in just to trade.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>3. MY CURRENT LONGER TERM TRADES:</strong></span>\n\n<strong>GBP/USD:</strong>\nFrom last weeks blog, I was able to find an initial entry that suited short. I have traded in and out of this pair for the last few days. I have banked great profits so far. The trade is set up to hopefully fall further this week. Yesterday, we had one huge \"Red\"candlestick and a broken trend line through 1.6000 that has been supporting this pair for weeks. Institutional traders will be looking at this candlestick and will be setting themselves up for a continuation of the downside move. My longer term goals are for a move to the mid 1.50\'s at least. The UK Chancellor, George Osborne wants the GBP lower and it looks like it could be \"Ball in his court\". Nothing is guaranteed, but this pair does look bearish. I will add again to take this trade to an 80% and then 100% size on a break below 1.5800 and 1.5750, the latter is a very big level of support.\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>GBP/USD</strong>\n<strong>Short</strong>\n<strong>Closing Price:1.5864\nCurrent Position: +25 pips</strong>\n<strong>Cost Average: 1.5891</strong>\n<strong>Trade Size: 60%</strong>\n<strong>Stop Loss: 1.5924</strong>\n<strong>Limit/Target: 1.5500</strong></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>EUR/GBP:</strong>\nI entered this trade early yesterday to establish a short position based upon 0.8400 being a good resistance level. Now, not so sure about this trade but I will review and tweet my actions.</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>EUR/GBP</strong>\n<strong>Short</strong>\n<strong>Closing Price: 0.8394</strong>\n<strong>Current Position: -32 pips</strong>\n<strong>Cost Average: 0.8364</strong>\n<strong>Trade Size: 20%</strong>\n<strong>Stop Loss: 0.8427</strong>\n<strong>Limit/Target: 0.8250</strong></p>\n&nbsp;\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>4.  LOOKING AHEAD INTO THIS WEEK - THE KEY SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS IN THE USD MAJORS:</strong></span>\n\n<strong>EUR/USD Closing Price: 1.3319.</strong> This pair despite all the \"Huff \'n Puff\" is still stuck in a range of 1.3300 to 1.3400. It flirted below 1.3300 for a period today but could not sustain the move. Many analysts still believe that we are in the middle of a  move to 1.4000 with this pair but it\'s failure to take out 1.3400 on about two or three attempts so far has me not so sure. I do not care one way or another, but I would imagine that there are lots of stops just above 1.3400 so if it should break it would springboard to 1.3500 pretty quickly. The EUR cross rates up to yesterday had huge upside moves, EUR/CHF, EUR/GBP, EUR/CAD, EUR/NZD, EUR/JPY etc and these helped keep the EUR/USD above 1.3300.\nThere will be volatility next week associated with the Eurozone and this could manifest itself by creating a downside move in the EUR/USD, however it could of course have the opposite effect. The market is geared for an upside move so a move lower could shift sentiment to a bearish tone. This would add to the drag on the GBP lower. Key support levels are 1.3250 after 1.3300. A break of 1.3250 would gear sentiment bearish. Upside resistance is at 1.3400, then 1.3460 and 1.3500.\n\n<strong>GBP/USD Closing Price: 1.5864.</strong> This pair ended the week with a massive bearish candle and a break through the key supporting trend line that had held the pair above 1.6000. Sentiment is definitely bearish and it will take a huge market move to change direction. I see 1.5800 before 1.6000 being re-tested again. The charting pattern is very definite and the moves whilst looking somewhat oversold are very powerful. A pullback should be on the cards, if it is only shallow it will further support the downside move. Support lies at 1.5800 then 1.5750. Resistance is at 1.6000 and then big resistance at 1.6100.\n\n<strong>AUD/USD Closing Price: 1.0509.</strong> This pair has drifted below 1.0500 for a couple of short periods in the past few days. The trading range is now 1.0490 to 1.0630. This pair needs to break down or break out to the upside in style to get things moving. The problem is, the S&amp;P is holding all the commodity pairs hostage. The S&amp;P is trading in a very tight range and until it breaks free the commodity currencies, in particular, are range bound.\n\n<strong>NZD/USD Closing Price: 0.8365.</strong> The trading range in this pair is basically 0.8300 to 0.8400.\n\n<strong>USD/JPY Closing Price: 90.08.</strong> What a currency pair. The politicians in Japan, in particular, Shinzo Abe the Prime Minister want the Yen weakened at all costs. One of his junior ministers at the start of last week poured cold water on the fact the Yen was weakening too fast. The Yen strengthened as as result of his comments. A day later Abe, give him a good slapping and then he retracted his comments and then the Yen weakened across the board in spectacular style. Now we closed the week at 90.00. After here we look towards 90.50, then I think we are off to 95.00, with a few stops on the way. Support is at 88.60.\n\n<strong>USD/CAD Closing Price: 0.9916.</strong> If this pair moves above 0.9950, I think its time to get very, very long the USD. This pair has been so range bound for so long it is wound up like a coiled cobra waiting to pounce. Support 0.9880 and resistance 0.9950.\n\n<strong>USD/CHF Closing Price: 0.9340.</strong> Support is at 0.9250 and resistance at 0.9400. This pair has been moving quite well this week on the back of the cross rates EUR/CHF an GBP/CHF.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>5. MAJOR NEWS EVENTS THAT INTEREST ME IN THE NEXT WEEK:</strong></span>\n\nThe chances of mucho volatility this week are heightened on Monday as the U.S. markets are closed.\n\nMONDAY: EUR - There are a series of Eurogroup meetings/wine tastings/major hospitality events. Be on alert for a dumb quote/sound-byte from an idiot politician.\nMONDAY: JPY - Monetary Policy Statement and BOJ Press Conference. The biggie...be ready.\n\nTUESDAY: EUR - \"Super\" Mario Draghi set to mutter a few words of wisdom.\n\nWEDNESDAY: GBP - Unemployment Numbers and MPC Minutes.\nWEDNESDAY: - CAD - BOC Rate Statement and Interest Rate, plus a BOC Monetary Policy Report and a Press Conference...no less.\nWEDNESDAY: - CNY - HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMi\n\nTHURSDAY: EUR - German Flash Manufacturing PMi\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">6. CLOSING THOUGHTS AND COMMENTS:</span></strong>\n\nShould be an interesting week for trading ahead. As I have said a couple of times already in this blog, let the trades come to you and do not over extend yourself believing the trades will come back to you. Set your stops and stick to them.\n\nAs I have said several times before, trade nimble with wide stops and prepare for volatility.\n\nGood luck,\n\n&nbsp;\n\nScott Pickering\nThe Pip Accumulator\nSaturday January 19th 2013.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n&nbsp;','THIS IS THE TIME NOT TO CHASE....BUT TO LET THE TRADES COMES TO YOU','','publish','open','open','','this-is-the-time-not-to-chase-but-to-let-the-trades-comes-to-you','','','2013-01-19 10:12:10','2013-01-19 15:12:10','',0,'http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/?p=1384',0,'post','',0),(1355,1,'2013-01-11 11:38:05','2013-01-11 16:38:05','<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>1. INTRODUCTION:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nWhat a great week for Fx traders. The last five days gave several great opportunities to make some money, there were really two main market movers that kept me interested.\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li>The JPY relentlessly weakening. For some reason I did not attempt to trade the YEN (JPY) crosses like the EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY , CAD/JPY and CHF/JPY as I felt that I was chasing the market and as I have indicated before it is not a good trading style or practice to adopt. I entered the USD/JPY on a pullback and hung on in there. Some great income. The move upwards in the YEN (JPY) I thought was coming to a close on several occasions and I did not want to be in the EUR/JPY or GBP/JPY in case we swung back violently. In addition, for my trading in 2013, it is all about risk management so I acted accordingly.</li>\r\n	<li>Super Mario......holy crap.........The guy says there was 100% agreement on not cutting EUR interest rates and we fly upwards taking all the EUR crosses and Cable for the long ride as well. It was the biggest one day move in the EUR/USD for a very, very long time. Recently we have traded on very low ATR\'s so this move was great...like the good old days. Then like a cherry on top of the \"Bakewell Tart\" (Google it, if you do not understand) the moves continued yesterday morning (Happy Days)...more $$$ and then I get a sweet trade short on GBP/USD for a 40% position size with 50 pips profit in it to round off the week.....sweet!!</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nI know, we had great China positive news that drove currencies around, in particular the Aussie and Kiwi, and, some interesting CAD news plus confirmation that the UK is really deep in the doo-doo but the YEN and Draghi were centre stage last week, in my opinion. What\'s next?..............I wish I knew....but it will probably be something with the word \"Cliff\" in it!!!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>2. THE VIEW FROM MY TRADING DESK:</strong></span>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>DO NOT GET CARRIED AWAY...THE EUROZONE IS STILL IN POOR SHAPE...NOTHING IS FIXED YET</strong></p>\r\nI just wanted to try and balance matters this week.\r\n\r\nThere is so much noise about the markets that following Draghi\'s press conference last Thursday  as the EUR rallied like a crazy man, or woman possessed to levels not seen for years that I actually for a moment thought that all the Eurozone problems were over. Smack my head against the wall....was I dreaming, was I half a bottle into Jack Daniels......no these were a few comments out on Twitter......My God, Twitter can be dangerous if you take it\'s comments verbatim.\r\n\r\nFor whatever reason and I am still struggling with this mentally... Draghi is talking up the Euro currency - why? What on earth is making the markets react the way they do. The EUR/USD rallied about 2% in the week...incredible. Bond yields are coming down but nothing is fixed. Last month at his press conference Draghi stated that there were conversations about reducing EUR interest rates and the currency got smacked. At Thursdays meeting all was sweet, no rate cut unanimous decision and the EUR/USD and all the cross currencies rose like a Salmon in B.C. leaping and jumping over rapids 6 feet in the air dodging \"Grizzlies\" on the way back upstream to it\'s spawning grounds....incredible. Draghi is screwing with the export capabilities that are going to be so crucial for growth in the Eurozone. Never mind Germany (they are the driving force of Europe - they can still export) , however  Spain, Greece, Portugal and the rest of the Eurozone still need to grow. They have to start pretty soon or we really will see disparate economic issues in the Eurozone....we will have a depression never mind recession. Even the German\'s cannot bail out the Eurozone alone and the ECB even with Super Mario at the helm cannot make a Rembrandt out of one of my paintings. The Eurozone needs to have, if it were a person, a good look at itself in the mirror and whilst it\'s there look in the background and see if it can see \"The can\" that has been kicked down the road so many times it must be like a tiny spec of dust on the mirror!\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>UNEMPLOYMENT</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>CONSUMER CONFIDENCE</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>GDP</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>PMi STATISTICS </strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>INCOME TAX AND STEALTH TAX RATES</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong> SOCIAL WELFARE COSTS &amp;  SPIRALING COSTS WITH GOVERNMENT BENEFIT SCHEMES</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>AUSTERITY MEASURES versus GROWTH </strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">These areas highlighted above are just a few of the problems still on the table for the Eurozone politicians to work through. They are both social and economic. The politicians and Civil Servants have been working a list similar to this one, probably with a few additional items contained therein for four years now and have made very little progress. Many would argue they are just delaying as there is no vision to actually sort these matters out. My belief is that politicians are not problem solvers they just attribute blame...so with that thought in mind that is why we have \"The Can\" being continually kicked down the road. Apart from choosing wine for the elaborate dinner menus at the EU summits I cannot think off the top of my head of a major achievement in the Eurozone by politicians in the last six months. Lots of promises......but bugger all action.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">We have the highest levels of Unemployment ever in the Eurozone since records began, as an area the total is above 11%. This in turn increases social welfare payments and reduces the tax intake. A double or triple whammy depending upon your viewpoint. The solution, is to increase the tax burden on the remainder to make up the shortfall. People then stop buying goods and services as they have reduced disposable income, confidence goes down as hard measures bite...and on it goes around and around.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">So, until something is actually done that gives the people who live in the Eurozone a positive outlook, do not get carried away with the politicians viewpoints or those of the ECB. They are so out of touch, it is baffling given what is and has been going on.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Trade carefully.......bad Eurozone news is ALWAYS a second or two away..............</p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>3. MY LONGER TERM TRADES:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nI have no long-term trades open in my \"Long-Term\" account. I tried a couple of times last week with the USD/JPY to keep a trade in position but I was stopped out.\r\n\r\nBut here are my plans, aims, thoughts: -\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">AUD/USD:</span>\r\nI was burned last year persisting with the AUD/USD short and while I believe Aussie news coming through is going to get decidedly worse as we move forward, I do not want to enter a trade until we test the 1.0630 level. I also want to see the China GDP data first before placing my trade. In the past week we had good China data, but the fact that after such good  news that we did not stretch that high and test makes me feel even more certain that the AUD/USD is one my next targets short on a longer-term basis. I just do not want to enter a trade at current levels.  A good  GDP number and we could be off to the races and 1.0630 could be breached, in fact, if we do get blowout numbers my short trade will be dead and buried.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">GBP/USD:</span>\r\nThe UK saw relief from the Olympics \"blip\" in statistics recently. That is now well gone and the chickens are coming home to roost one by one. News from the UK is basically poor and the fact that Chancellor Osborne is calling very openly for the GBP/USD to be lower than current levels to aid exports etc is more than just interesting. I see 1.5750 as my first short limit target.\r\n\r\nPullbacks with these two currencies next week and I will plunge in. I will tweet entries etc as I enter the trades.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>4. LOOKING INTO NEXT WEEK -  THESE ARE THE KEY SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJOR PAIRS:</strong></span>\r\n\r\n<strong>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3342. </strong>As stated last week we are still in a down sloping channel on the Monthly Chart. Terrific moves towards the latter end of last week, pushing this pair substantially higher. Personally, I feel that 1.3400 will offer a short opportunity as we head into confluences of resistance around 1.3380, then above 1.3400 the next stop is around 1.3455. Support will be back down at 1.3250 then 1.3150.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/EURUSD-MONTHLY-120113.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1378\" alt=\"EURUSD MONTHLY 120113\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/EURUSD-MONTHLY-120113.png\" width=\"660\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.6135.</strong> This pair is being dragged up by the EUR. The cross-rate effect of EUR/GBP will start to weigh in eventually and I think pressure this pair to the downside. Resistance lies at 1.6200, then 1.6250 if we ever get to those areas. Remember at 1.6300 the UK Chancellor, George Osborne, made his comments about cable being too strong so if the pair does really break higher be careful around this level in particular. Support to the downside rests at 1.6085, then 1.6045 and a big one at 1.6000.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/GBPUSD-240-120113.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1377\" alt=\"GBPUSD 240 120113\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/GBPUSD-240-120113.png\" width=\"660\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong>AUD/USD: Closing Price 1.0534.</strong> Bugger....this pair is heading lower too fast for my liking. From a personal perspective I want a re-test of 1.0630 so I can take a short trade. Will we get there...who knows? The range to play with the Aussie is 1.0500 to 1.0630.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/AUDUSD-DAILY-120113.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1379\" alt=\"AUDUSD DAILY 120113\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/AUDUSD-DAILY-120113.png\" width=\"660\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8358.</strong> This pair at the back of my mind I call the \"Doomsday\" pair. Another financial crash and I short this pair like crazy, and I mean crazy. I see 0.6500 in another crash situation. I am not however predicting or calling for a financial crash, let me just make myself clear on that point. I do however believe in my own mind that this pair is so far over-valued it\'s day is going to come and I hope I have my fingers ready on my trading computer when that day comes. I know, it is what it is and all that jazz but the Kiwi economy is not in that good a shape, why is it so high? Taking my emotion to one side for a minute, the levels to watch with this pair are; resistance 0.8375, then 0.8400. Short side support lies initially at 0.8300 down to 0.8240.\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/JPY: Closing Price 89.16.</strong> Is this pair ever going to pullback? Holy Mother of God, its rise (JPY weakness) is relentless.....will it ever stop. The simple truth (As Al Gore would say....) is that there is quite a bit more it can go to. On the Monthly Charts this pair is playing out an inverted \"Head and Shoulder\" pattern, from which, the measured move could take take it as high at 92.50 to 93.00. That\'s quite a move from where we are currently. It does not need to stop it can just keep going. Technical traders are saying over and over again that RSI (Relative Strength Indicator) is grossly over-bought, in fact it looks like it\'s the highest it\'s been on this pair for over 10 years. Logically, one would expect a pullback. But when did logic ever work in the day-to-day Forex market? Support should be good at around 88.60, maybe not a bad place to try and get long. I want 84.00....yeah, I know dream on..... Topside in the near term has to be huge at 90.00, then for me the inverted \"Head and Shoulder\" pattern plays out to completion. I read earlier this week that banks are stating 100.00 and I also read 110.00 as 2013-4 goals for this pair. Get the Jack and Diets ready!!\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.9133.</strong> Lost money on this pair this week trying to eek out a nice long trade-off 0.9200 support...crashed and burned on that one!! It\'s really all round numbers for me with this pair. Support 0.9100 then 0.9000 and resistance at 0.9200 then 0.9300.\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CAD: Closing Price 0.9846.</strong> I actually made money off the \"Loonie\" last week. Two quick fire trades on a news event...happy days. Support beckons at 0.9800 and then 0.9755. Would I just love to get long sub 0.9750 or what!!! Topside resistance comes in at 0.9880 and then 0.9920.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>5. MAJOR NEWS EVENTS THIS WEEK THAT INTEREST ME:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nLooking at The Forex Factory not much \"Red\" news this week of real interest to me.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: GBP - CPi and the BOE inflation letter should be interesting.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: AUD - Employment Numbers and Rate.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: CNY - GDP.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: GBP - Retail Sales.\r\n\r\n(Given that my target currencies looking forward are GBP and AUD these news events will either confirm or pour water over my thoughts).\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>6. CLOSING THOUGHTS AND COMMENTS:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nOn the face of things it looks like this week could be a slower week. However, do not forget the numpties in Washington are doing their best to f**k up the U.S. economy so be on guard for sound-bytes and ridiculous quotes based upon the party divide. These things can pull the markets around in the blink of an eye and really screw up your trending trades and land you in the crapper.\r\n\r\nTherefore, trade a little smaller position size and allow for volatility whilst the U.S. politicians strut their stuff on the TV and Radio stations.\r\n\r\nGood luck,\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nSaturday 12th January 2013.','DO NOT GET CARRIED AWAY...THE EUROZONE IS STILL IN POOR SHAPE...NOTHING IS FIXED YET','','publish','open','open','','do-not-get-carried-away-the-eurozone-is-still-in-poor-shape','','','2014-01-20 14:00:43','2014-01-20 19:00:43','',0,'http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/?p=1355',0,'post','',0),(1334,1,'2013-01-04 16:40:20','2013-01-04 21:40:20','<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>1. INTRODUCTION:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nHappy New Year 2013 to everyone and I hope you all had a great Christmas, or whatever you may have celebrated over the recent holiday break.\r\n\r\nBack in the chair again for only a couple of days this week, so this will be a very brief  \"Drive-Thru\" and as they used to say on the BBC  - \'normal service will be resumed shortly\'....in my case, it will be next week.\r\n\r\nI am still familiarizing myself with all the charts. The USD/JPY continues to surge onwards and upwards. The inverted \"Head and Shoulders\" pattern on the weekly chart is definitely in play with the measured move target around 92.00. The EUR/USD under some pressure, the break below 1.3100 should place a move towards 1.2800 in the slot. However, the reaction after Non Farm payrolls yesterday caused an initial 50-60 point break higher off the psychologically important round number support at 1.3000. I am expecting the downside pressure to return next week, but this is not guaranteed as we closed above 1.3050.\r\n\r\nApart from the JPY relentless rise (weakening), nothing much else has really changed. The major USD pairs are in the main still in the trading range channels that they were prior to the holidays. Being honest with you, I am struggling to feel the directions of the majors from the charts, from a macro level fundamentally I know where I feel they should be heading but technically I need verification by a true breakout/breakdown to support my beliefs. This has really been the case since October last year. At that time I was really heading up some great USD long positions, believing that the USD would strengthen across the board. This did not happen. As I have said before, the Commodity currencies really hold the key, they usually lead the way. The big problem is that equities have held up well causing a little bit of stalemate, as commodity currencies have been range bound.\r\n\r\nAs a result of this I am trading small positions.....waiting for the trades to come to me.\r\n\r\nThe trades that I am immediately interested in are: USD/JPY long and EUR/USD short. I will look hard at the AUD/USD short from above 1.0500 and the NZD/USD short from over 0.8300. The USD/CAD long I will ignore given the stress this pair caused me last year running up to the break before the holidays.\r\n\r\nI will be back on twitter next week and I will tweet entries. I want to try and get back to holding trades for days/weeks rather than hours, so this year I will be making a conscious effort to be spot on with entries.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>2. THE VIEW FROM MY TRADING DESK:</strong></span>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>HAS THE FED  MOVED THE GOALPOSTS?</strong></p>\r\nThis big news for me this week was on Thursday afternoon, the minutes from the December 2012 FED meeting. I was expecting nada...nothing at all.......we got 2013.\r\n\r\nSome of Ben\'s hangers-on are calling for the unlimited QE that was only very recently upped to $85 Billion purchases per month to end in 2013 and not the infinity date that was circulating of 2015. Yet again we have a little uncertainty in the markets, and, the markets hate uncertainty. The cry baby\'s on Wall Street need to have not just consistency, which, I can totally understand but they also want their hands held and a cuddle from Uncle Ben. (I do not mean the guy that makes all the rice dishes either) I mean Uncle Ben....the most powerful man in the world.\r\n\r\nThis change of date, or mere mention of it, in fact there really was no date in the first place if the truth be told, caused a bit of a wobble in the Fx markets. Wall Street (God Love them all) believed infinity meant infinity and that their pockets and wallets would be continually fed $$$ by Uncle Ben. <span style=\"color: #3366ff;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">I believe that the FED has already started its pullback from the \"Date Cliff\" by starting sound-bytes confirming the peg to the unemployment rate of 6.5% is the trigger and not a calendar date. When you look forward the chances of the U.S. unemployment rate being less than 7% at the end of 2013 looks pretty ambitious. I am thinking at least 2014 at the earliest and that blows hot water over the 2013 date from the December minutes.</span> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">The only chance of a 6.5% rate being achieved in my opinion is if 2 or 3 millions of Americans give up the chase of looking for a job and de-register from the system. Stranger things than this have happened....but I think even for that to happen is highly unlikely.</span></span>\r\n\r\nThe 2013 date put the fear of God into Wall Street as the thoughts of  FED tightening and interest rate increases hit home. Whilst, I think this headline is a bit of a loss leader it has without doubt made the market think beyond the next glass of wine at the end of the day. It does however make me think how is the FED going to unwind all of the easing without creating a void. Time will tell on this point. No doubt Ben has his thoughts and views, which he is playing very close to his chest.\r\n\r\nFrom my perspective, the \"Goalposts\" are still in the same position but I think 2013 was let out quite deliberately as 2015 may become 2014. Infinity will NOT be infinity. The key people around Ben like Janet Yellen are not dissenters, it was the fringe members of the FED committee who were quoted as being the ones talking about easing ending in 2013. Whether they did or did not talk about it is irrelevant now, the message that was wanted to be released has been done in a very clever way without Ben having to do it in a high profile way.....very clever if you ask me. Far too much intelligence shown........Ben could never be a politician.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>3. MY LONGER-TERM TRADES:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nCurrently I am in cash. There should be trades in this section next weekend.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>4. LOOKING AHEAD INTO NEXT WEEK......THE KEY SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS IN THE USD MAJORS:</strong></span>\r\n\r\n<strong>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3068</strong>. I was thinking of shorting around 1.3060 yesterday but decided to sit on my hands instead. I will look at this pair probably in the European session on Monday morning. I really hate trading the Sunday night in Asia. The initial resistance lies at 1.3100, yesterday we stopped at 1.3090, which, was interesting but I have a feeling that Sunday will see a test of 1.3100 unless we have some news over the weekend to move pressure to the short side of this pair. Long side resistance is at 1.3100 then 1.3150. Support lies at 1.3050, then 1.3000 and 1.2970.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/EURUSD-W-050113.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1351\" alt=\"EURUSD W 050113\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/EURUSD-W-050113.png\" width=\"660\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.6068.</strong> Cable sold off quite well during the week and retraced a little, but like the EUR/USD only a little yesterday. We still closed below 1.6100, in fact 1.6070 is a resistance point and that was where we closed. I am expecting GBP/USD to come under pressure next week and resume it\'s move lower. I am looking at 1.5750 as a level to aim for. There is NO good news in the UK. Every piece of good news is a temporary blip and the Brit \"Stiff Upper Lip\" is in play. If we break lower on Monday expect more during the coming week. Support levels are 1.6000, then 1.5980, then 1.5920, 1.5850 and 1.5750. There are few minor stop off points on the way in addition but these are more noticeable to look out for on the way lower. Should we break out to the long side after 1.6100, we target 1.6300 again.\r\n\r\n<strong>AUD/USD: Closing Price 1.0479.</strong> If we peak above 1.0520, I will be in short with a stop at 1.0580. 1.0450, then 1.0400 and the biggie at 1.0350 are the key support levels to the down side.\r\n\r\n<strong>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8309.</strong> I will be looking to enter short on Monday with this pair. My initial targets will be 0.8250, then 0.8200 then 0.8150. Long side resistance should we break higher is at 0.8350 and then 0.8400.\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/JPY: Closing Price 88.14</strong>. An inverted Head and Shoulders pattern off the weekly Chart is in play with the measured move coming in at just over 92.00. This pair is rather over-bought to say the least and it appears the entire world of forex is long this pair. That does not mean that it would be great to contrary and short it. Tres dangerous indeed. Shinzo Abe has made his intentions perfectly clear the JPY is to be weakened at all costs....you cannot fight a central bank not even the BOJ. Sanyo were calling for 100.00 in the USD/JPY recently as the target for Abe to aim at. Time will tell whether we get there but this pair could be the Fx trade of the year for most traders. You have to be patient as it consolidates the recent upward moves. If you are looking to get long wait for a pullback. The levels are: - Long side initial resistance 88.50 then 89.00 and 89.50 (but these levels are all minor). Support lies at 87.50 a great place to establish a long trade I think.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/USDJPY-M-050113.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1350\" alt=\"USDJPY M 050113\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/USDJPY-M-050113.png\" width=\"660\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CAD: Closing Price 0.9871.</strong> Support looms at 0.9850 and then 0.9820. Resistance is back at 0.9920 then 0.9970.\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.9245.</strong> We sit above key support of  0.9240. Beneath here it\'s 0.9150. Long side resistance is at 0.9320 and then 0.9350.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>5. MAJOR FOREX NEWS EVENTS ON MY RADAR NEXT WEEK:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nLooking at Forex Factory there are several \"Red Coded\" news events coming up next week that are of interest to all Fx traders but the one that stands out for me is on <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>Thursday  10th January</strong></span>, the ECB Press Conference. This item coupled with the interest rate decisions of the BOE and ECB always makes my early morning coffee much more fun. It all starts at 7.00am with the BOE rate decision followed by the ECB rate decision at 7.45am  and finally \"Super Mario\'s\" Press Conference at 8.30am.\r\n\r\nIn addition to the ECB Press Conference the same night (Thursday) there is at 8.30pm Chinese CPi year on year data. I am looking to enter trades on both the AUD and NZD so this news will be of interest to me as these currencies are affected by most Chinese data. Australian Trade Balance statistics (Monday) and monthly Retail Sales (Tuesday) both at 7.30pm also catch my eye.\r\n\r\n(All times quoted are New York time).\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>6. FINAL THOUGHTS:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nAs mentioned earlier, it may just be me, but I am finding the markets a little difficult at the moment to follow and track effectively.\r\n\r\nI think my process was not helped by the fact that I read over the holidays that several banks and major brokers claimed that 2012 was a particularly difficult year all round for traders both professionally and home based alike. It made me think and look back over the year I had, poor/average start, poor second quarter, reasonable third quarter and a flattish final quarter...well that\'s nothing to write home about, but, I kept my head above water. By all accounts that was an achievement.................I thought it was bloody hard work and that is why 2013 has to be an improvement.\r\n\r\nTrade nimble and trade within your account limits and your risk tolerance.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\n5th January 2013','HAS THE FED MOVED THE GOALPOSTS?','','publish','open','open','','is-the-fed-has-moving-the-goalposts','','','2014-01-20 14:03:14','2014-01-20 19:03:14','',0,'http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/?p=1334',0,'post','',0),(1985,1,'2013-09-28 12:13:04','2013-09-28 17:13:04','&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">1. INTRODUCTION:</span></b>\r\n\r\nWhat an interesting week in the Forex market.\r\n\r\nI was going to start my blog  along the lines of boring, boring, boring, given that the EUR/USD traded the entire week stuck in it’s tight range of about 100 pips between 1.3450 and 1.3570. Then of course, we had the BOE governor Carney speak last Thursday, basically saying no more QE for the UK and cable then rallied on the back of that news and the EUR/USD followed with a similar move upwards overnight Thursday into Friday, but the range held!!\r\n\r\nDuring the week I was focused on my usual pairs, the AUD/USD, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. These commodity currencies fascinate me. Just when you think they are off to the races with strength, they diverge from equities and they slump. Then, when equities start to come under pressure they really start to break down. They tend also to be daily directional…that is most of the time. It just helps my trading style if I am day trading.\r\n\r\nWith the commodity currencies under pressure and the EUR/USD and especially the GBP/USD strengthening, I started to look at some of the “exotic pairs” for trading opportunities. I mentioned this point in the “Midweek Fix #1” last Tuesday and I want to expand these thoughts later in this blog.\r\n\r\nSo the U.S. congress is once again about to split on party lines and hold the country and Obama to ransom on raising the U.S. debt ceiling, and sequestration amongst other items, culminating in what is now called closing down the government. The voting American public must be so pist off with their elected representatives, the correct words to use actually fail me. But it is the voters who are at fault, they voted these numpties into office and as such they are therefore responsible.\r\n\r\nIf ever there was a case for a review of the U.S. political system its upon the U.S. right now. The existing two party system is a failure and the system that allows almost constant campaigning is painful. Nothing ever gets done, apart from inter-party squabbles.  The existing set of representatives in both houses should focus on country first for a time. The present routine for the politicians on both sides of the house is complete bulls**t and quite frankly utterly dysfunctional. The current batch of freak politicians are great examples to the future of America…not.\r\n\r\nAnyway, enough of that, this is a forex blog, not a party political address. The bottom line is that in the future to trade the USD with some care, as we are entering a sound-byte season once again.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">2. THE VIEW FROM MY TRADING DESK:</span></b>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">WHAT TRADES ARE ON MY RADAR</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">EXOTIC CROSS RATES…MAYBE A GREAT OPPORTUNITY IS ON THE HORIZON.</span></b></p>\r\nHaving been a little bored with the EUR/USD trading opportunities last week, coupled with the strength of cable, I started to look at opportunities further afield that I would not usually look at. As you know, my favourite pairs to trade are the AUD, NZD and CAD. Looking at the cross-rates with the USD divergence there are some very interesting set-ups on the horizon.\r\n\r\nI must at this point, mention a few words of caution regarding trading these exotic currency pairs. Do not get carried away with bold and sudden moves. Note and remember that these currency pairs trade with wider than normal rate spreads and are very, very volatile. The ATR (Average true ranges) are larger than normal. These pairs are also not as well financially supported as the USD majors. Therefore spikes can be sudden and false breakout moves are also a part of these pairs, beware.\r\n\r\nThe AUD is probably my favourite currency to follow and trade. I look many times a day at the EUR/AUD as this pair in particular, in addition to the USD/JPY follows equities. In fact, the EUR/AUD was one of the best trades in the Fx market as it closely followed U.S. equities; it was in fact a mirror image. In recent times, as I have often blogged, correlations were “off” and this pair although it was good for “risk on” or “risk off” scenarios was not as cast iron a trade as pre financial crisis and all the ensuing Eurozone issues.\r\n\r\nSince the financial crisis, so much hope had been placed at the Chinese door on manufacturing and production. The EUR/AUD was sold in buckets as the AUD currency could be viewed as a stooge currency for China.\r\n\r\nAngela Merkel has been re-elected in Germany and this will hopefully add stability to the Eurozone. Chinese GDP is falling; I do NOT believe a bloody word that comes out of China. It is in their best interests to lie. Look, how many times do you get orange sauce on your chicken, when it says tangerine on the menu?  Think about it. We may have China GDP below 7%, maybe even as low as 6.75% as we move forward into 2014. These two factors alone make the AUD a different currency to trade moving forward.\r\n\r\nAdd into the picture, the FED. Yes, I had to mention my mate Ben, the most powerful man on the planet!! QE is coming to an end, we just do not know when…therefore, all bets are off, the goal posts have moved. Equities are presently at all time highs, as soon as QE (tapering) starts and ends, is it not inconceivable that as the “free money” dries up, the upward momentum in trading equities ends and we see a downside move as U.S. monetary policy changes?\r\n\r\nShould this happen, could not the EUR/AUD get stronger and unwind a massive down side move? If this were to happen it would be massive. It has only really been a short trade for 5 years.\r\n\r\nI know my fundamental views are sometimes ahead of the technical, but evidence is starting to gather in my opinion.\r\n\r\nThe beauty of a move in the AUD currency is that it spins off into the NZD and also has an effect on the CAD as well. There are 6 charts below based on the “Cross Rate” currencies (Exotics) compared to the EUR and GBP. There are monumental moves in the offing if things play out the way that I am seeing and thinking. Nothing is guaranteed but should this shift happen there are thousands and thousands of pips available.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>EUR/AUD: Close on Friday: 1.4508</strong>\r\n\r\nThe chart below shows that the move higher could actually already be in motion. 1.4116 was a key level. The level has been pulled back to and tested on the current month.\r\n\r\nThe 38% retracement level is 1.5100 or so. That is 600 pips away. With huge moves lower like this it is possible to retrace even higher over months. The often referred to mother of retracements 61.8% is at 1.7400, that is about 3,000 pips away. The unwinding of this pair could lead us all the way to this level.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/EURAUD-MONTHLY-28092013.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1988\" alt=\"EURAUD MONTHLY 28092013\" src=\"http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/EURAUD-MONTHLY-28092013-1024x516.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"516\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>GBP/AUD: Close on Friday: 1.7314</strong>\r\n\r\nWe are unwinding but I really want 1.7350 to be taken and confirmed as an upward move before entering a trade. Should this happen, 2.2200 is the 61.8% retracement. That is just shy of 5,000 pips for the overall move in the coming months/years. Just think about it though, a move to just the 38% retracement in the region of 1.9200 is 1,700 to 1,900 pips.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/GBPAUD-MONTHLY-28092013.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1989\" alt=\"GBPAUD MONTHLY 28092013\" src=\"http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/GBPAUD-MONTHLY-28092013-1024x516.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"516\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>EUR/NZD: Close on Friday: 1.6307</strong>\r\n\r\nThis pair is extremely volatile. 1.6330 is the key level for me, a confirmed break here and a similar break upwards with the GBP/NZD, should also see the NZD/USD getting crushed. The NZD/USD could be down sub 0.8000 very quickly.\r\n\r\nA move to just the 38% retracement yields a potential 2,700 pips.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/EURNZD-MONTHLY-28092013.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1990\" alt=\"EURNZD MONTHLY 28092013\" src=\"http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/EURNZD-MONTHLY-28092013-1024x516.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"516\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>GBP/NZD: Close on Friday: 1.9450</strong>\r\n\r\nYou may recall a while back I was looking for a move above 2.000 targeting 2.2400 and beyond. That move is still on, but the break out point is now around 1.9500 in my opinion.\r\n\r\nThere are in the region of 1,000 pips available with this pair and even more if we get traction in the unwinding move.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/GBPNZD-MONTHLY-28092013.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1991\" alt=\"GBPNZD MONTHLY 28092013\" src=\"http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/GBPNZD-MONTHLY-28092013-1024x516.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"516\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>EUR/CAD: Close on Friday: 1.3934</strong>\r\n\r\nThis move is already underway in my opinion; I have missed the first 1,000 pips!! Above the 38% retracement of 1.4138, will hopefully get us a move towards 1.4785 the 50% retracement. It’s only 600 pips.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/EURCAD-MONTHLY-28092013.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1992\" alt=\"EURCAD MONTHLY 28092013\" src=\"http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/EURCAD-MONTHLY-28092013-1024x516.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"516\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>GBP/CAD: Close on Friday: 1.6629</strong>\r\n\r\nSimilar to the EUR/CAD, this move has already started. The break above 1.6343 was the level. 1.6860 is the next level and then a break to the 38% retracement sets up 1.8120. That would yield a move of about 1,300 pips from current levels.\r\n\r\n<i> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/GBPCAD-MONTHLY-28092013.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1993\" alt=\"GBPCAD MONTHLY 28092013\" src=\"http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/GBPCAD-MONTHLY-28092013-1024x516.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"516\" /></a></i>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<i> </i>\r\n\r\nPlease do not get carried away with these trades and enter them all blindly right now.\r\n\r\nAssess your risk/reward and add when profitable, if they play out. There is the potential to make a huge amount of money.\r\n\r\nI may be a few weeks or a month ahead here, but bear these potential moves in mind. I am currently looking for pullback entry levels and I will tweet these as they happen and mention this batch of trades in the next Midweek fix.\r\n\r\n<i> </i>\r\n\r\n<i> </i>\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">3. LONG TERM TRADES:</span></b>\r\n\r\nAt this stage I am still in cash.<b></b>\r\n\r\n<b> </b><b> </b>\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">4. POTENTIAL TRADES ON MY RADAR:</span></b>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>EUR/USD\r\n</b><b>Short: 1.3570 (or thereabout)\r\n</b><b>Stop Loss: 1.3820\r\nInitial Target/Limit: 1.3480</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b><b>NZD/USD\r\n</b><b>Short 0.8340 (or thereabout)\r\n</b><b>Stop Loss: 0.8370\r\n</b><b>Initial target 0.8220</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>EUR/AUD (Assessing over the next few days)\r\n</b><b>Long\r\n</b><b>Stop Loss\r\n</b><b>Initial Target: 1.5150</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>GBP/AUD (Assessing over the next few days)\r\n</b><b>Long\r\n</b><b>Stop Loss\r\n</b><b>Initial Target: 1.9170</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>EUR/NZD (Assessing over the next few days)\r\n</b><b>Long\r\n</b><b>Stop Loss\r\n</b><b>Initial Target: 1.9060</b><b> </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>GBP/NZD (Assessing over the next few days)\r\n</b><b>Long\r\n</b><b>Stop Loss\r\n</b><b>Initial Target: 2.2420</b><b> </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>EUR/CAD (Assessing over the next few days)\r\n</b><b>Long\r\n</b><b>Stop Loss\r\n</b><b>Initial Target: 1.5400</b><b> </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>GBP/CAD (Assessing over the next few days)\r\n</b><b>Long\r\n</b><b>Stop Loss\r\n</b><b>Initial Target: 1.9180</b><b> </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>USD/CAD\r\n</b><b>Long: 1.0260\r\n</b><b>Stop Loss: 1.0190\r\n</b><b>Initial Target 1.0675</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b></p>\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">5. LOOKING FORWARD…THE KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS:</span></b>\r\n\r\n<b>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3521. </b>After all the shenanigans on Friday, we closed the week one pip lower than the previous week’s close<b>. </b>There is not much to say other than what I have posted on twitter a couple of times lately. We are stuck in a range of 1.3450 to 1.3570. You need to wait for a confirmed break to get the direction. Trading within the range is also fine at the moment. I am expecting a break from this range this week with an ECB Press Conference and Non Farm Payrolls on the event calendar.\r\n\r\n<b>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.6138. </b>This pair is really strong at the moment. Comments from BOE Governor Carney have put a rocket under the strength of cable. We closed just shy of 1.6160, which I have noted as the next resistance level. In my opinion, cable does not come under pressure, with the bears resuming control, until we once again break below 1.5970.\r\n\r\n<b>AUD/USD: Closing Price 0.9313. </b>I think we are heading lower once again with this pair, but 0.9270 needs to be taken out to have my thoughts confirmed. 0.9410 offers up great resistance if the bears come out to play.\r\n\r\n<b>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8258</b>. This pair is acting very strong on the back of RBNZ comments a few weeks ago. It is very stubborn, even though it is being dragged lower by the AUD. A break below 0.8200 should however set us up for a break lower. Resistance is very strong at 0.8340 and again at 0.8470.\r\n\r\n<b>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.0303. </b>This week’s close exactly the same as last weeks. We are caught in a range here that needs to be broken. ‘This is still the resistance and support is still strong at 1.0240.\r\n\r\n<b>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.9055. </b>I am still not following this pair. In the back of my mind I think it will soon test 0.8800 or close to that level before possibly spiking higher. But this really depends on how the EUR/USD behaves.  During last week we broke key support at 0.9090 support, and we are now heading to test 0.9000. We need to break above 0.9150 to see a real lift with this pair<b>.</b>\r\n\r\n<b>USD/JPY: Closing Price 98.22. </b>I am just ignoring this pair at the moment. It is another pair that is stuck in a range, 98.00 to 99.20. If 98.00 gives way, and it may, 96.00 could be in our vision very quickly.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">6. MAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:</span></b>\r\n\r\nSUNDAY: N/A\r\n\r\nMONDAY: CAD – GD\r\nMONDAY: CNY – Manufacturing PMi\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: AUD – RBA Interest Rate Statement\r\nTUESDAY: GBP – Manufacturing PMi\r\nTUESDAY: USD – ISM Manufacturing PMi\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: GBP – Construction PMi\r\nWEDNESDAY: EUR – Interest Rate and Draghi Press Conference\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – ADP Non Farm Employment Change\r\nWEDNESDAY: AUD – Retail Sales and Building Approvals\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: GBP – Services PMi\r\nTHURSDAY: USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI\r\nTHURSDAY: AUD – Trade Balance\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: USD – Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Rate.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">7. FINAL THOUGHTS:</span></b>\r\n\r\nThis next week is a big news week for all forex traders to concentrate on.\r\n\r\nAustralian news events are huge market movers and will give us a huge indication on which way to trade this pair. PMi results in the UK and U.S. will be followed closely but the biggies are, without doubt, U.S non-farm on Friday and Draghi’s press conference the day prior on Thursday.\r\n\r\nAs usual, trading with caution is recommended. Do not over-stretch your account and keep inside your trading plan limits.\r\n\r\nWatch out for the Midweek Fx Drive-Thru this week.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGood luck and take care.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nSaturday September 28th 2013\r\n\r\nFOLLOW ME AT:\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','EXOTIC CROSS-RATES...MAYBE A GREAT OPPORTUNITY IS ON THE HORIZON','','publish','open','closed','','exotic-cross-rates-maybe-great-opportunity-horizon','','','2014-01-20 12:23:47','2014-01-20 17:23:47','',0,'http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/?p=1985',0,'post','',0),(1980,1,'2013-09-24 15:18:07','2013-09-24 20:18:07','<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">1. INTRODUCTION:</span></b><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b>\n\nWelcome to the “Midweek Fix”, the midweek version of the Weekly Fx Drive-Thru.\n\nThis will just be a look at trade set ups that interest me and in addition I cover trades that I am presently in and I will refer to the previous “Drive-Thru” regarding trades on my radar.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">2. TRADES THAT I AM CURRENTLY LIVE WITH THAT I CATEGORISE: -</span></b>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">LONG TERM TRADES:</span></b></p>\nI did not tweet these trades this morning but I will provide details here. The reason for me not tweeting was pure and simple down to the amount of time available.\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>NZD/USD</strong>\n<strong>Short</strong>\n<strong>Entry (cost Average): 0.8270</strong>\n<strong>Position Size: 40%</strong>\n<strong>Stop Loss: 0.8350</strong>\n<strong>Limit: 0.8165 (38.2% Fib. Retracement 240 minute chart)</strong></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong> </strong></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>AUD/USD</strong>\n<strong>Short</strong>\n<strong>Entry (Cost Average): 0.9374</strong>\n<strong>Position Size: 20%</strong>\n<strong>Stop Loss: 0.9475</strong>\n<strong>Limit: 0.9250</strong></p>\nI decided to enter the NZD/USD just below 0.8300 this morning. I have taken profits just above 0.8260 and added back. With regards to the AUD/USD I did a similar thing taking profits around 0.9370 and adding back.\n\nI am looking for quite a large move lower with the commodity currencies as I believe that the stock market with all the U.S. uncertainty hovering around us right now, and, more uncertainty looking forward is going to weigh in on equities and they should start to roll over as a result. Should this happen the NZD, AUD and CAD versus the USD to name but three pairs should weaken.\n\n<b> </b>\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">3. POTENTIAL TRADES ON MY RADAR:</span></b>\n\nShould I enter any of the following trades I will do my utmost to “Tweet” my entries immediately after placing my trade with stops etc.\n\n<b>EUR/USD:</b>\n\nI was really tempted this morning with this pair but held back. A break below 1.3450 that is confirmed should yield big money. It is still however, a great trade to try long at 1.3450, looking for a move back to 1.3550. The long trade is probably more likely and the risks are defined it could be a great risk/reward trade.\n\nWith all the uncertainty creeping into the markets at the moment. One has to be careful with this pair but there is no doubting that 1.3450 is formidable support from the FOMC breakout last week.\n\n<b>USD/CAD:</b>\n\nLooking for a long trade, but I want to see a pullback below 1.0260 to get a great entry position. It may well be that I do not achieve this and may have to get long after a breakout of 1.0300 on a pullback to 1.0300. There is potentially a big move on the cards.\n\n<b>EUR/AUD, GBP/AUD, EUR/NZD, GBP/NZD, EUR/CAD &amp; GBP/CAD:</b>\n\nI am keeping a close eye on all of these pairs, as there is possibly a very large unwinding trade on the cards. If you have followed me on the Weekly Fx Drive-Thru you would know that a few weeks ago I was trying to most of these pairs on breakouts. If equities fall back and roll over I will be over these pairs like a rash.\n\nThe levels I am looking at to enter and go long are, around the levels below based on pullbacks if possible. I realize these entry levels may not be achieved but I can hope. I hate chasing trades, but if needs must I may have to. At the moment they are all starting to perk up and look quite bullish. I may have already missed the prime entry levels.\n<p style=\"padding-left: 480px;\">EUR/AUD: 1.4200/1.4250\nGBP/AUD: 1.6800/1.6850\nEUR/NZD: 1.6000/1.6050\nGBP/NZD: 1.9000/1.9050\nEUR/CAD: 1.3850/1.3900\nGBP/CAD: 1.6200/1.6250</p>\nPlease note with above cross-rate pairs only take very small positions with wider than usual stops. These are volatile pairs that move very fast and operate with light financial volume so they are very, very volatile. My usual approach is to trade a maximum of 20% of my usual trade size with these pairs.\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b>\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">4. FINAL THOUGHTS:</span></b>\n\nAs usual, trading with caution is recommended. Do not over-stretch your account and keep inside your trading plan limits.\n\nGood luck and take care.\n\nScott Pickering\nThe Pip Accumulator\nTuesday September 24th 2013\n\nFOLLOW ME AT:\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\n\n&nbsp;','THE MIDWEEK FIX  #1 (24.09.2013)','','publish','open','closed','','midweek-fix-1','','','2013-09-24 15:18:07','2013-09-24 20:18:07','',0,'http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/?p=1980',0,'post','',0),(1977,1,'2013-09-21 12:28:39','2013-09-21 17:28:39','&nbsp;\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">1. INTRODUCTION:</span></b>\n\nBefore looking at the major news that affected us as forex traders in the past week, I wanted to make an important blog announcement.\n\nThe title “The Weekly Fx Drive-Thru” will remain in place, but, I will now be adding a midweek blog update based around the new blog section called “What trades are on my radar”. I will now publish an additional blog probably on a Wednesday, reviewing existing trade set-ups and their progress, plus, updating trades that I am waiting to trigger from the previously published “Radar Trades” section of The Weekly Fx Drive-Thru.\n\nI have been asked to provide my updates and on-going thoughts and I am trying to deliver. The additional blog will be more of a review/update. I am going to call it the Midweek Fx Drive-Thru.\n\nIf you currently subscribe to the blog it will be automatically delivered to your inbox. If you connect via Twitter or Linked-In you can connect in the usual way just keep a look out for the Midweek Drive-Thru.\n\nMoving on…the world can breathe again,\n\nThe eagerly awaited Forex event of the last two/three years has finally passed and fair play to Ben Bernanke he took probably 99% of the press, the market analysts and bloggers such as myself by surprise. I actually thought he would taper $20-$25 Billion…wow…did I get that wrong or what!\n\nThe great news after the “No Tapering” FED decision, was that it was the easiest of all trades to take. Just short the USD and watch your account balance grow. It was to say the least, one of my best income days for such a long time. I had no time to tweet as I was trading multiple pairs at the same time.\n\nAfter having taken profits post FOMC and letting a couple of trades run through Asian and European sessions, I closed all trades at about 7.00am eastern the following day (Thursday) and I have remained in cash since waiting for pullbacks. Since then we have really been in fairly tight trading ranges.\n\nThe only excitement since the FOMC was “Bullard” speaking on Friday saying that a $10 Billion FED QE reduction would have been no big thing. That comment from “Bullard” created a 25-40-pip move across the majors for a few minutes.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">2. THE VIEW FROM MY TRADING DESK:</span></b>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">BEN SHOWS US ONCE AGAIN WHY HE IS THE MOST POWERFUL MAN IN THE WORLD, BUT PERSONALLY, I THINK LARRY SUMMERS IS THE SMARTEST</span></b></p>\nI was gob smacked when the FOMC announced no change in QE. I traded like crazy, I added 25% to my main trading account within 18 hours, it would have been more had UK retail sales not been awful the next morning, which, cut back my profits.\n\nHaving had time post FOMC to think about what Bernanke announced, my immediate thought was if the FED believes that the pace of economic growth is not good enough now to even reduce QE by even $5 Billion, how fragile the U.S. recovery must be. This surprises me, because it is at odds with political commentators, FED members who talk to the TV and Radio and many economic analyst’s\n\nThe cynic inside of me then thought, Larry Summers who pulled out of the race to be the Bernanke replacement a few days prior to the big announcement last week, is a clever guy. In the name of all that is defined as sanity, who, would want to take on the role of FED president? That Larry Summers is a clever guy.\n\nI believe that Ben Bernanke is the non-elected president of the USA. President Obama, well meaning as he may be, is a lame duck president as party political dividing lines in the U.S. Congress block any progress on attempting to improve the U.S. economy. The elected representatives by the people to manage the country are completely dysfunctional. They claim to be interested and concerned in improving the U.S economy, but in my book actions speak louder than words. They have collectively contributed nothing, other than show us political squabbling on TV, which leaves Ben out on his own.\n\nSo why is Ben where he is with his thoughts?\n\nNo one really knows apart from the man himself, but as always I have my own thoughts. Let me highlight the major pieces I took from the statement and the press conference.\n<ol>\n	<li>While the economy is growing, fiscal tightening in Washington in the form of sequestration spending cuts remains a significant obstacle.</li>\n	<li>The downside risks to growth have diminished over the past year. However, the tightening of financial conditions in recent months, if sustained, could slow the pace of improvement in the economy and the labor market.</li>\n	<li>Fed moves toward tapering will be dependent on economic data improvements.</li>\n	<li>Fed would taper “at some point, possibly later this year.</li>\n</ol>\nHe obviously said a great deal more, but these are what interest me.\n\nI feel like an idiot, several months ago Bernanke stated that he was looking closely at two numbers in particular, unemployment and Inflation. I even quoted these in last week’s blog, yet like the huge majority of people chose to ignore these numbers when debating would tapering happen and if so by how much. We simply were not close enough to risk the economic improvements, in the eyes of the FED, given all Washington concerns, which must not be underestimated.\n\n<i> </i>\n<p align=\"center\"><i>Unemployment Rate of 6.5%</i></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><i>Inflation Target was 2.0% …but then it became as long as it’s below 2.5%.</i><i> </i></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><i>Then in June this year unemployment substantial improvement meant 7% not 6.5%.</i></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><i>Right now, we are in the following position: -</i><i> </i></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><i>Unemployment Rate = 7.3%</i></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><i>Inflation = 2.0%</i></p>\nI thought, like most on-lookers, that we were close enough to begin a never before attempted removal of QE.\n\nDespite the improving economic data in the U.S. the Fed remains in “Easing” mode. It would appear that despite an auto sales surge and housing data showing signs of improvement, inflation is in line with the FED’s targets and the fact that the employment improvement is only slow, the numbers show a steady move in the right direction (that of course you believe the statistics to accurate), it appears that Washington trumps all.\n\nFrom where I sit, this is never going to change for the foreseeable future. Washington as previous stated appears divided upon party lines, there is zero willingness for the good of the country to walk the divide and try to move things forward. There is no agreement on any form of meaningful legislature at all. This is sad, and, if I were voting for these people to represent me, to put it calmly I would not be happy.\n\nTherefore, “Non elected President Ben” who has been able to do more for the U.S. economy than any sector of politicians of late, assumes control. I do see a problem though.\n\nBernanke wants to see America back to work and keep inflation under control. In the FOMC rate statement the Fed also wound back the target GDP growth numbers. This is significant in itself; a target sub 4% for the USA is a failure by any stretch of the imagination.\n<p align=\"center\"><i>GDP target 2013 was 2.3% now revised to 2.0%</i></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><i>GDP target 2014 was 3-3.5% now revised down to 2.9-3.1%</i></p>\nThere is also the markets reaction to “No Tapering”. There was no real follow through. Are we at the position, which, I have referred to before of diminishing returns on the QE effect? If so, does the Fed lose control of the way the markets react to continuing QE. The uncertainty once again causes bond rate increases and this has a knock on effect into mortgage interest rates (do not forget on “the no to tapering” mortgage interest rates alone fell by 0.25%), Bernanke has a problem trying to control all things at once.\n\nPersonally, I think Ben may have bitten off more than he can chew and he has backed himself into an almost impossible position. For all his key factors to be in line for long enough to pronounce the end of QE and tapering to start, we may not be in that position until long after he has left the FED and well into 2014. Given that the FED wound back GDP growth numbers, maybe even longer.\n\nI think that with the indicators that the FED originally wanted to be measured by (unemployment and inflation) was more than enough to contend with. However adding in the Washington affect and what that could potentially have on the financial markets and the economy as a whole, opens up a whole new game. Frankly I do not think no matter what the FED has its in armory it could not control this additional responsibility it appears to have undertaken.\n\nBernanke has shown that he has the power to move markets but what size of job scope has he created. He is placing a crazy burden on his replacement, who would appear to be taking on a thankless position hence my comment that Larry Summers is a very clever guy to withdraw from consideration to be Ben’s replacement.\n\nHow to trade this situation:-\n\nI think that we are in for an extended period of range trading and we could be in limbo for sometime. The markets were expecting tapering to start. It did not happen. After the USD getting crushed after the FOMC there has been no real follow through. There is uncertainty. Will tapering happen in 2013 or not until 2014? At one stage Bernanke was predicting a complete exit of QE by mid 2014. Is that still the case? There are more questions than answers.\n\nI think that we will be in a state of flux for sometime with the U.S. situation. Leaving the Fed to one side it will probably be Washington that takes centre stage next with the debt ceiling debate. Given that both sides have publicly stated that they will not negotiate, we are set up well.\n\nSo I predict range trading once again. As long as you are disciplined this is a nice way to trade, as long as we have good 100 pip ranges to play with. On the positive side, when the ranges compress any breakouts that are confirmed are usually explosive which is also good.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">3. LONG TERM TRADES:</span></b>\n\nAt this stage I am still in cash.<b></b>\n\n<b> </b><b> </b>\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">4. POTENTIAL TRADES ON MY RADAR:</span></b>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>EUR/USD</strong>\n<strong>Long: 1.3450 (or thereabout)</strong>\n<strong>Stop Loss: 1.3410</strong>\n<strong>Initial Target/Limit: 1.3600</strong></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>GBP/USD</strong>\n<strong>Long: 1.5960 (or thereabout)</strong>\n<strong>Stop Loss: 1.5910Initial </strong>\n<strong>Target/Limit: 1.6100 then 1.6150</strong></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>NZD/USD</strong>\n<strong>Short 0.8440 (or thereabout)</strong>\n<strong>Stop Loss: 0.8470</strong>\n<strong>Initial target 0.8300</strong></p>\n&nbsp;\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">5. LOOKING FORWARD…THE KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS:</span></b>\n\n<b>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3522. </b>It was quite a move higher in the week with this pair on the back of the FOMC. We are however in a new range of 1.3450 to 1.3600. Play this range until you get a break defining the next direction. I am not sure which way this pair is heading.\n\n<b>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.6002.  </b>We closed just above the psychological barrier of 1.6000. Had it not been for poor retail sales numbers last Thursday morning, I wonder where this pair would have finished the week. The “Cable” was so strong I had in the back of mind a test of 1.6700 in the coming weeks. Who knows, that could still happen. For now, a break below 1.5960 sets up a move lower, but this is also a great place to enter long with tight stops. Resistance lies at 1.6100 and better still at 1.6160. Play the range with this pair just like the EUR/USD.\n\n<b>AUD/USD: Closing Price 0.9392.  </b>Was it a significant end to the week with a close below 0.9400? Who knows, but does it place the bears back in control …maybe, but, maybe not. A break below 0.9350 gives me more confidence that the bears are back in the driving seat. On the other side, a break above 0.9500 would set up a test of maybe a run to 0.9600. That would be my area to look to get short…that\'s if we can break higher. I am not too sure that that will happen now.\n\n<b>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8357</b>. This pair is acting very strong on the back of RBNZ comments a few weeks ago. A break below 0.8300 should however set us up for a break lower. Resistance is very strong at 0.8470.\n\n<b>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.0303. </b>I failed to get long this pair at 1.0200 after the FOMC. I thought that we were going to break lower to test parity. I am pinching myself about that missed opportunity considering we are now closing the week at 1.0300. I feel a squeeze coming here if we break up above 1.0350. Support is at 1.0240.\n\n<b>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.9099. </b>I am still not really following this pair. In the back of my mind I think it will soon test 0.8800 or close to that level before possibly spiking higher. But this really depends on how the EUR/USD behaves.  We are so close to 0.9090 support if that gives way it\'s a run to 0.9000 support. We need to break above 0.9150 to see a real lift with this pair<b>.</b>\n\n<b>USD/JPY: Closing Price 99.31. </b>Last week we closed at 99.36. Not much of a change at all week on week although we have been down up down up all week. I am not sure what to do with this pair. I see the trading range as 98.50 to 99.80. Let the trade come to you to tell you what to do is probably the best trade..\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">6. MAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:</span></b>\n\nSUNDAY: EUR – German Federal Elections.\nSUNDAY: CNY – HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMi\n\nMONDAY: EUR – French and German Flash Manufacturing PMi.\n\nTUESDAY: N/A\n\nWEDNESDAY: N/A\n\nTHURSDAY: N/A\n\nFRIDAY: N/A\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">7. FINAL THOUGHTS:</span></b>\n\nNot a great deal interests me this week.\n\nIt amazes me that the German elections do not seem to worry the markets, hardly a mutter about them and quite frankly I think that the Eurozone issues are more worrying when one thinks of Spain and Italy…never mind Greece, Cyprus and Portugal issues.\n\nWe should now see a return to “normal” trading volumes which will help but I fear that with so much up in the air regarding the U.S. economy we may see a prolonged period of range trading so get the coffee supplies in and be ready.\n\nAs usual, trading with caution is recommended. Do not over-stretch your account and keep inside your trading plan limits.\n\nWatch out for the first Midweek Fx Drive-Thru this week.\n\nGood luck and take care.\n\nScott Pickering\nThe Pip Accumulator\nSaturday September 21st 2013\n\nFOLLOW ME AT:\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\n\n&nbsp;','A TAPER SURPRISE...STILL SHOWS BEN BERNANKE TO BE THE MOST POWERFUL MAN IN THE WORLD','','publish','open','closed','','taper-surprise-still-shows-ben-bernanke-powerful-man-world','','','2013-09-21 12:28:39','2013-09-21 17:28:39','',0,'http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/?p=1977',0,'post','',0),(1966,1,'2013-09-14 10:37:28','2013-09-14 15:37:28','<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">1. INTRODUCTION:</span></b>\n\nI am back safe and sound from the gastronomic road trip of the “Maritimes”. It was a tiring journey lots of kilometers covered and I would like to thank the Fx markets for welcoming me back with a snooze fest…talk about boring, boring, boring. I have never yawned so much as I have done this past five or six days. I was ready to leap back in with gusto!\n\nI have often tweeted and used this blog to state my position, that I believe that Ben Bernanke is the most powerful man in the world. Can there now be any doubt? The entire investment community, whether written, audio or visual has gone into “Tapering” overdrive. If ever there was a case for cancelling Monday and Tuesday next week as days in the calendar we are looking at it now. The whole financial world is on hold pending Ben’s “FED Statement and Press Conference” next Wednesday afternoon (Eastern USA).\n\nI received a question the other day from “H” in Glasgow, Scotland about my trading accounts, which basically asked, given the summer trading thin conditions and slow markets “Am I making money at the moment, if so is it greater or less than last year?”\n\nAs I have stated many times of late it is a difficult market in which to trade, whether you are a novice or have a few years experience.\n\nI looked from August 1<sup>st</sup> until the present. This year in that period I lost just over $250. In comparison to last year, where I added over 7% to my bottom line, which in cash terms was over $1,000 to give you a cash comparison. I always mange the balances of my accounts within a $2,000-$3,000 range. So, to answer your question my trading income is less this year than last year for me.\n\nThis year we have been range bound and the fact that “Tapering” has been hanging over the markets like the “Sword of Damocles”, this means that the markets have been in denial, plus, the JPY was controlling matters for a week or so in August so it was strange times to trade. That\'s how I saw it anyway.\n\nI believe, that in the summer if you can keep your head above water in your trading you are doing a great job. Why trade in the summer if “not drowning” is the goal? Market familiarity is my only answer; you always need to keep in touch. But remember you can trade a “Dummy” account. It’s not the same for me trading with a demo/dummy account so I am more times than not just a “market voyeur”. But remaining in touch is essential to success.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">2. THE VIEW FROM MY TRADING DESK:</span></b>\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">I AM WATCHING MOVIES, DOING THE GARDENING, OR, MAYBE JUST FINISHING OFF A BOTTLE OF JACK…. WHILST I AM WAITING FOR BEN’S ANNOUNCEMENT ON WEDNESDAY.</span></b>\n\nIf ever there was a sign to lock away your trading computer for a couple of days this is it now. You do not want to get caught in trades that lead you down the garden path to the compost heap. Those types of trades, and, you know the ones I mean, false breakouts on thin trading positions…those trades are on the horizon now, yesterday was the last “normal day” (if there is such a thing anymore).\n\nThe long and very eagerly awaited FED September “Statement and Press Conference” is finally happening on Wednesday.\n\nAs I understood it, Ben’s deciding factors on reducing QE (tapering) were based around unemployment numbers/percentages and the FED inflation target.\n\nWhen Ben stated six months ago after introducing asset purchases of $85 Billion per month, initially he used words rather than numbers to describe the exit strategy. He used phrases like, “Until we see a substantial improvement in the outlook for the labor market”; the reason for words at that time was allegedly on the basis that, and I quote “Because we ourselves don’t know precisely what would define substantial improvement”.\n<p style=\"padding-left: 300px;\">There were the numbers I first recall: -</p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 300px;\">Unemployment Rate of 6.5%\nInflation Target was 2.0% …but then it became as long as it’s under 2.5%.</p>\nThen in June this year unemployment substantial improvement meant 7% not 6.5%. Then the word “Tapering” entered my everyday vocabulary as much as the word “No” (We have two small puppies).\n<p style=\"padding-left: 300px;\">Right now the statistics are: -</p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 300px;\">Unemployment Rate = 7.3%\nInflation = 2.0%</p>\nOne could argue, these current numbers themselves meet the criteria for “Tapering” to start, hence the twitchiness in the markets. Wall Street in on orange alert for massive quantities of “loo paper” and watch out for traders drinking copious volumes of peppermint tea as well as consuming cardamom, coriander, fennel seeds and eating ginger. (My branch out into mentioning herbs is just to highlight I have a broad knowledge base and I wanted to pose. The herbs listed are well known Hindu remedies for upset stomachs…they should know, those guys can dish out wild curries!!)\n\nI have read that Ben is going to shave $10 Billion off the existing $85 Billion. Tapering starts or it doesn’t start, either way a big market move is on the cards.\n\nMy balls on the chopping block; Tapering is on. I believe that Ben, who is in a very difficult position, near the end of his tenure at the FED, will not want to go out with the job half done, leaving the next incumbent with a huge asset purchase facility to deal with.\n\nInflation is in line and more and more people are no longer registering for jobs, benefits were cut again very recently, so I believe the unemployment rate is on the cusp of a huge move lower. I think Ben will be as high as $20-$25 Billion in the QE (Tapering), which will cause a stir to say the least. He may have at the back of his mind to have 50%-66% of monthly QE off the table before he leaves his current position, maybe even more towards 75%-80%.\n\nAt the end of day, the U.S. economic statistics are at best hit and miss from where I am sitting. I still question what has QE actually achieved for the man on the street. Sure as eggs are eggs, the Wall Street “fat cats” have been on cream for quite some run courtesy of the FED. The Wall Street and CME trader’s morning chant of “Buy the dip”; “Buy the dip” will soon be a thing of the past.\n\nThe FED is at an important crossroad. It really has to act. The natives are getting restless, so to speak. Bernanke’s move has brought matters to a head.\n\nFrom my perspective, it’s all about housing. A bullish housing market keeps the cogs turning. In addition, quite frankly with all the billions of dollars spent to achieve very little in my view, they could have given over $250 to every U.S. citizen, in the main this would have had a greater effect on consumer spending into the economy.\n\nIn any event, I am on hold until Wednesday. I have one trade (see later).\n\nMy advice, stay clear of your machine. This (QE) tapering has never been tried before, no one, and I mean no one knows what will happen it’s all pure speculation. I have my thoughts like thousands of other people. Your account balance is precious and capital preservation vital.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">3. LONG TERM TRADES:</span></b>\n\nAs per my tweet earlier this week I am short the EUR/USD. It is a small trade and well within my risk toleration and well within my trading plan guidelines.\n\nI know, we have the biggest news event of 2013 on the horizon but my stop will not be moved.\n<p align=\"center\"><b>EUR/USD:\nEntry (Cost Average): 1.3311\nPosition Size: 40%\nClosing Price: 1.3293\nStop Loss: 1.3360\nLimit (Profit Target): 1.2650\nProfit/Loss:  +18 pips</b></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\" align=\"center\"><a href=\"http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/EURUSD-MONTHLY-14092013.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1969\" alt=\"EURUSD MONTHLY 14092013\" src=\"http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/EURUSD-MONTHLY-14092013-1024x516.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"516\" /></a></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\" align=\"center\">You can see from the Monthly chart below why 1.3320 has been major resistance for this pair over recent trading sessions. It is the 61.8% retracement on the last big monthly chart move. As I am looking for USD strength, EUR weakness to come into this pair. Setting my profit target is interesting.  Obviously 1.3000 is a key psychological number, and you can see candlestick support and resistance lies there.  That would be my first target, and beyond that 1.2650.</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">4. POTENTIAL TRADES ON MY RADAR:</span></strong></p>\nI missed it Friday…damn.\n\nI am looking at the EUR/GBP to go much lower. I missed the break lower at 0.8400 (I will be looking for a pullback).\n\nEurozone issues are bubbling again and I see Italy and Spain dominating, plus we have German elections due shortly (Bavaria this weekend) nothing is certain. In addition, all the Eurozone agreements on banking etc. are well away from being sorted never mind an implementation date.\n<p align=\"center\"><b>My ideal trade set up is: -\n</b><b>ENTER SHORT AROUND: 0.8400\n</b><b>STOP LOSS AT: 0.8480\n</b><b>LIMIT / TARGET: 0.8165 (61.8% retracement see chart below)</b></p>\n&nbsp;\n\n<a href=\"http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/EURGBP-WEEKLY-14092013-2.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1972\" alt=\"EURGBP WEEKLY 14092013 (2)\" src=\"http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/EURGBP-WEEKLY-14092013-2-1024x516.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"516\" /></a>\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">5. LOOKING FORWARD…THE KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS:</span></b>\n\n<b>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3293. </b>This pair has been in a tight range for quite sometime now. FOMC will break this. 1.3225 to 1.3325 is the range. I would wait if not already in a trade until Ben’s words of wisdom have been expelled. The FOMC holds the key to the breakout.\n\n<b>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.5872. </b>The EUR/GBP broke down today and the cross-rate effect for Cable going higher sprung into action. 1.5900 is written all over this pair and I think that had it not been for the EUR/USD continuing to struggle to break out this would have been achieved. I do not see the bears being back in control of this pair until we break below 1.5750. If we break 1.5900, once has to say that 1.6000 will be next. Once again the FOMC holds the key to the direction.\n\n<b>AUD/USD: Closing Price 0.9242. </b>I really want to get short this pair, but I still fear a run to 0.9400-0.9600. A break below 0.9150 sets the bears firmly back in control. Once again a commodity push after the FOMC will dictate this pairs direction.\n\n<b>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8124</b>. Now it looks like the RBNZ are going to hike rates in 2014. This will be interesting to see. I am, not sure how to play this pair longer term at the moment. I just cannot make sense of the fundamentals. The trading range for now is 0.8100 to 0.8180.\n\n<b>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.0349. </b>Like soooooo many people I want to get long this pair around 1.0260. We may not break below 1.0300!! Not too sure what to do with this one. The range as I see it is 1.0300 to 1.0380.\n\n<b>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.9295. </b>I really do find this pair to be of all the majors the one I hardly ever look at a nowadays. It was reacting like the JPY for a while back in August, now…well I am a little confused and being honest I find it hard to judge. There is SNB news this week maybe something will come out of that, but do not hold your breath. It’s a boring pair for me right now. The range on my charts is 0.9250 to 0.9380.\n\n<b>USD/JPY: Closing Price 99.36. </b>I thought that as soon as we broke past 99.20, we were heading for a smash through 100.00 and then we would be on a march to 104.00. Well, I got that wrong. Rejected twice recently around the 100.00 level. The immediate range that seems to be containing this pair is 99.00 to 100.00. After Wednesday, this should be broken one way or another.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">6. MAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:</span></b>\n\nSUNDAY: N/A\n\nMONDAY: AUD – Monetary Policy Minutes\n\nTUESDAY: GBP – CPi\nTUESDAY: EUR – ZEW Sentiment\nTUESDAY: CAD – Manufacturing Sales\nTUESDAY: USD – Core CPi\n\nWEDNESDAY: GBP – MPC Voting results\nWEDNESDAY: USD – FOMC\nWEDNESDAY: NZD - GDP\n\nTHURSDAY: N/A\n\nFRIDAY: CAD – Core CPi\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">7. FINAL THOUGHTS:</span></b>\n\nThis week is a big week. Obviously, the FOMC dominates all other news events and quite honestly I do think we will be pretty much range bound pending the FOMC.\n\nThin trading sessions will still continue, so, trading with caution is recommended. Do not over-stretch your account and keep inside your trading plan limits.\n\nGood luck and take care.\n\nScott Pickering\nThe Pip Accumulator\nSaturday September 14th 2013\n\nFOLLOW ME AT:\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\n\n&nbsp;\n\n&nbsp;','ONCE AGAIN, ON HOLD WAITING FOR THE FOMC...','','publish','open','closed','','once-again-on-hold-waiting-for-the-fomc','','','2013-09-14 10:37:28','2013-09-14 15:37:28','',0,'http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/?p=1966',0,'post','',0),(1948,1,'2013-08-29 08:00:08','2013-08-29 13:00:08','<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">1. INTRODUCTION:</span></b>\n\nI am aware from feedback received since my last blog, that some of my followers to this blog directly, or from Twitter and the other social networks, are tracking the 6 trades mentioned in the last Weekly Fx Drive-Thru dated 24<sup>th</sup> August 2103. I therefore thought that it would be a great idea, prior to my vacation starting tomorrow, to update you, as to where I am with the six trades referred to in the blog and add any further thoughts that I may have.\n\nWith the majority of the trades, I have taken profits off the table and re-entered to establish positions. All the trades are small trades, and, I view them as all longer-term fundamental trades that are in different stages of alignment with technical levels. I openly admit I am ahead of the technical levels in or two places but all trades are within my trading plan account management levels.\n\nAt the back of my mind I am conscious that news from the Middle East (Syria and Egypt) are weighing in on the markets plus there is a plethora of economic data that is market moving next week, and, with all this in mind I am debating very seriously do I keep the trades associated  specifically with the USD still in play or not? I am trading very small positions, and my booked trades with my brokers are small trades as well, so at this stage I am prepared to take on the risk.\n\nSo, whilst travelling over the next 10 days or so, I will keep myself updated with the Fx markets as I will need my daily fix. Should I decide to change direction with my thought processes I will try to update via twitter.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">2. THE SIX TRADES FROM LAST WEEKS BLOG:</span></b>\n\n<b>TRADE: 1 - AUD/NZD: (LIVE TRADE) - PRESENTLY -24 pips</b>\n\nI have been in and out of this trade a couple of times due to me being spooked by the Syrian crisis. Fundamentally, I see this pair going higher, but it is struggling with rising above the1.1600 level. It is an irritating trade for me at the moment but as soon as it moves higher and confirms the move it should be good...I hope. It is very well supported at a 38% Fibonacci retracement around 1.1370, so I am using this as my base support.\n\nENTRY (Cost Average): 1.1522\nSTOP LOSS: 1.1350\nLIMIT (Target): (1) 1.1875, then (2) 1.1949, then (3) 1.2150\nTRADE SIZE: 20%\n\n<b>TRADE: 2 - GBP/CAD: (BOOKED TRADE)</b>\n\nI have taken losses on this pair over the past few days, basically, because I entered into the trade too soon. I took it on the back of some great UK economic data but the move upwards in cable could not be sustained and this pair came close to a breakout, but not close enough. A very basic and foolish error on my part. I could have banked profits but I was greedy expecting a push through what is a big resistance level. I am now therefore waiting for a confirmed break above 1.6550 before attempting a re-entry trade. I have an order placed at this level with stops and limits as set out below.\n\n(STOP ORDER) ENTRY: 1.6550\nSTOP LOSS: 1.6400\nLIMIT (Target) 1.8100\nENTRY TRADE SIZE: 10%\n\n<b>TRADE: 3 - GBP/NZD: (BOOKED TRADE)</b>\n\nThis trade offers a huge potential. Above all, trading this pair you need to be patient and at times have nerves of steel. My approach is to trade small until the trade is established.\n\nSo far, I have been in the trade twice. Once I stopped myself out of the trade on the back of the Syrian news and the second time I incorrectly placed a stop (idiot) and  I was stopped out.\n\nI am now waiting for a confirmed breakout above 2.000. Because the potential measured move profit opportunity is huge, I am not going to enter into this trade at the beginning of the measured move. I want to see it confirmed, so I am waiting about 100 pips into the move before entering. This is a very conservative approach, but I do believe that it is the correct one for my style of trading. This is a very, very volatile pair  and it moves far and very quickly therefore my cautious approach suits me and to trade it with wider stops is the order of the day. Its ATR (Average True Range) can be massive, but, overbought/oversold conditions most of the time do not apply to this currency pair.\n\n(STOP ORDER) ENTRY : 2.0125\nSTOP LOSS: 1.9805\nLIMIT (Target): 2.2450\nENTRY TRADE SIZE: 10%\n\nIf the cup and handle measured move plays out, this will be a very, very profitable trade.\n\n<b>TRADE: 4 - USD/JPY: (BOOKED TRADE)</b>\n\nMy buy order is still in the system. It was based upon a down sloping trend line, which is now sub 99.00. I am leaving the order in position at my original level, which, should mean that if the trade starts we have a confirmed break. It is a very small trade so I am prepared to take this risk.\n\n(LIMIT ORDER) ENTRY: 99.20\nSTOP LOSS: 98.50\nLIMIT: 104.45\nENTRY TRADE  SIZE: 20%\n\n<b>TRADE: 5 - USD/CAD: (LIVE TRADE) - PRESENTLY -14 pips</b>\n\nI have been in and out of this pair so many times over the past few days. I do see this pair as being bullish as long as it remains above 1.0440. If you look at a 60 minute or 240 minute chart there is a bullish flag formation that measures a move to about 1.0650 from a breakout level of 1.0512. My current parameters are as follows: -\n\nENTRY (COST AVERAGE): 1.0527\nSTOP LOSS: 1.0422\nLIMIT: 1.0850\nPOSITION SIZE: 20%\n\nI am trading at a loss at the moment, but as long as we hold the previously good support level at 1.0440 I am not too worried.\n\n<b>TRADE: 6 - NZD/USD: (LIVE TRADE) - PRESENTLY +62 pips</b>\n\nI have been short, taken profits and re-shorted this pair a couple of times. I see this pair going a lot lower should we break through 0.7730. I will add on a break below this figure.\n\nOn the Daily chart there is a potential flag formation that starts at 0.7730, with a measured move lower to 0.7100.\n\nENTRY (COST AVERAGE): 0.7817\nSTOP LOSS: 0.7891\nLIMIT: (1) 0.7500, then (2) 0.7100…. my Armageddon target 0.6550.\nPOSITION SIZE: 20%\n\n<b>TRADE: 7 - (BONUS TRADE) AUD/USD: (LIVE TRADE) - PRESENTLY -3 Pips</b>\n\nI am also short this pair. I was little uneasy shorting the “Aussie” as I felt it was grossly oversold and the potential for a snap back rally was high. I know see it as entering a new leg lower. I have added and taken profits over the past few days.\n\nENTRY (COST AVERAGE): 0.8917\nSTOP LOSS: 0.9018\nLIMIT: 0.8000\nPOSITION SIZE: 20%\n\nSo to summarize; I am live in four live trades and I have three potential trades with limit/stop orders placed with my broker.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">3. MAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:</span></b>\n\nSUNDAY: AUD – Building Approvals.\n\nMONDAY: GBP – Manufacturing PMi\nMONDAY: AUD – Retail Sales\n\nTUESDAY: AUD – RBA Rate Statement and Interest Rates.\nTUESDAY: GBP – Construction PMi\nTUESDAY: USD – ISM Manufacturing PMi\nTUESDAY: AUD - GDP\n\nWEDNESDAY: GBP – Services PMi\nWEDNESDAY: CAD – BOC Rate Statement and Interest Rates.\nWEDNESDAY: CAD – Trade Balance.\nWEDNESDAY: USD – Trade Balance.\nWEDNESDAY: JPY – Monetary Policy Statement.\n\nTHURSDAY: JPY – BOJ Press Conference.\nTHURSDAY: GBP – Asset Purchase Facility and Interest Rates\nTHURSDAY: GBP – Monetary Policy Rate Statement\nTHURSDAY: USD – ADP Non Farm Employment Changes\nTHURSDAY: EUR – Interest Rate Statement and Press Conference.\nTHURSDAY: USD – ISM Non Manufacturing PMI\n\nFRIDAY: CAD – Employment Change and Unemployment Rate.\nFRIDAY: USD – Non Farm Payrolls and Unemployment rate.\nFRIDAY: CAD – Ivey PMi\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">4. BRIEF FINAL THOUGHTS:</span></b>\n\nI think that I would be correct to say that next week is the biggest week of the year so far with regards to Fx news items that have significant importance. Given the fact that we are also in thin trading times, I am also thinking thank God that I away from my desk.\n\nIf ever there was a time to trade small…. this is surely it.\n\nWe are in volatile times; the Middle East is a powder keg waiting to go off and do not forget “Tapering” (How could we!), plus the US government debt ceiling is back in play, plus European news from the German elections, the Greek bailout Act III, Berlusconi flexing in Italy regarding breaking the fragile coalition. Add to this the Australian elections and emerging markets currency/debt issues and there is a case maybe just to watch matters unfold.\n\n&nbsp;\n\nSee you next on September 14<sup>th</sup> 2013.\n\nGood luck and take care.\n\nScott Pickering\nThe Pip Accumulator\nThursday August 29th 2013\n\nFOLLOW ME AT:\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\nStockTwits: www.stocktwits.com/thepipaccumulator\n\n&nbsp;\n\n&nbsp;','THE MIDWEEK DRIVE-THRU - FOLLOW UP TO LAST WEEK\'S BLOG','','publish','open','closed','','the-midweek-drive-thru-follow-up-to-last-weeks-blog','','','2013-08-29 08:00:08','2013-08-29 13:00:08','',0,'http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/?p=1948',0,'post','',0),(1964,1,'2013-09-10 07:29:31','2013-09-10 12:29:31','<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>1. INTRODUCTION:</strong></span>\n\nI wanted to write just a short blog to update you on the trades in position just prior to my vacation.\n\nWhilst traveling on our \"Maritimes\" road trip I thought that I would have had a consistent internet connection to enable me to follow the 7 trades that were either in action or that I had my radar prior to leaving. Unfortunately the days were longer than I had anticipated and the internet connection was not 100%.\n\nAdd to this the Syrian uncertainty that I could not follow on a minute by minute basis plus all the economic data that was being published, I had no other decision than to close off trades as the week progressed based upon the news I had at the time of being connected to the internet.\n\nI took some profits and some losses on the final trades as I closed them. Overall on this trade bundle establishing positions a few weeks ago, taking profits off the table and, taking some losses, in particular with the GBP/NZD and GBP/CAD I have lost 167 pips. I am not a \"Happy Puppy\" but given all that is going on at this time in the Fx markets I am happy to be out of all of these positions from day one with just a small loss of this size. As always hindsight is fantastic, I could have closed out at the best overall position of +329. C\'est la vie!!\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>2. CLOSING TRADE SUMMARY FROM LAST WEEK:</strong></span>\n\nAUD/NZD: +25 pips\n\nGBP/CAD: Did not activate.\n\nGBP?NZD: Did not activate.\n\nUSD/JPY: +38 pips (I wish I had left this one alone!!)\n\nUSD/CAD: -115 pips\n\nNZD/USD: +31 pips\n\nAUD/USD: -76 pips\n\n&nbsp;\n\nSee you at the weekend for a full Weekly Fx Drive-Thru.\n\n&nbsp;\n\nScott Pickering\nThe Pip Accumulator\nTuesday 10th September 2013.\n\nFollow me on Twitter  @pipaccumulator','VACATION TRADES - UPDATE','','publish','open','closed','','vacation-trades-update','','','2013-09-10 07:29:31','2013-09-10 12:29:31','',0,'http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/?p=1964',0,'post','',0),