<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>THE PREMIUM SERVICE
</strong><strong>The Home of Single-Lot Trading
</strong><strong>from
</strong><strong>THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU
</strong><strong style="line-height: 1.5;">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</strong></p>
<strong>DATE: 12.04.2015
REFERENCE: #148
</strong><strong>BLOG: THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU</strong>

&nbsp;
<ol>
	<li><strong> INTRODUCTION - MY OVERVIEW OF THE FOREX MARKET:</strong></li>
</ol>
<span style="text-decoration: underline;">LOOKING BACKWARDS, FORWARDS &amp; SIDEWAYS (FOR GOOD MEASURE) AT THE FX MARKET:</span>

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">1.1 - LOOKING BACKWARDS:</span>

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">RBA – RATE STATEMENT:</span>

Surprise decision or not the RBA left interest rates unchanged last week. These buggers at the RBA are really reaping havoc on my shorter to medium term views of my TRADING PLAN. This is creating additional trading stress that I do not want or like to have.

My longer-term view is that the AUD/USD is going sub 0.7000. There are times when the market has me so frustrated that I feel like just opening an additional broker account to set-up a number of entries, place them LIVE, and then, take a look once a month at where I stand, and, add to positions and move stops on a monthly basis. These would be true FUNDAMENTAL longer-term trades, an account free from the noise and chop fest that we appear to be suffering all the time now. There’s a thought, and maybe something I should have done at the beginning of 2015.

I digress, market makers had to reset their short to medium term outlook on the AUD overall and it was only through relentless USD buying on Thursday through Friday last week that AUD/USD started to fall again after a number of up days following the Rate announcement. In my opinion the jury is out on the short-term moves with the AUD, however, having just said that, bigger moves will take place from which the AUD will just follow like a good little puppy.

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">FOMC MEETING MINUTES:</span>

Can someone please tell me why minutes that emanated from a Rate Statement, Financial Projections and a 90- minute Press Conference by the FED chair Janet Yellen, that were seen clearly as DOVISH, turn out a couple of weeks later to read as HAWKISH?

This is why a lot of new traders get switched off from the Forex Market. It is what it is, a fecked up collection of market makers, with the attention span and memory of a gnat. These people couldn’t organize a piss-up in a brewery. At times this is just total bollo**s.

I tweeted PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers not to get suckered one way or the other and to expect a collection of knee-jerk reactions to the release of the minutes, and, basically that was what happened after the USD bulls finally got their way.

The crazy thing from my perspective is FED policy is NOT something that changes like the direction of the wind. It is similar to Moses returning from the mountain with the 10 commandments in tablets of stone. They will raise rates…. period. They have to because of credibility. If they feck up and have to reduce again so be it. All this fuss about timing is now so drawn out with speculation and it has created so much uncertainty it is now just boring to watch CNBC / BLOOMBERG anymore.

In any event a rate hike is coming. It could still come in June. DO NOT rule out anything if we get two months of good data the FED may say “feck it, what the hell lets do it now and if we have to chop it back to boost the fall / Christmas market so be it”.

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS:</span>
<ol>
	<li><span style="text-decoration: underline;"> GREECE:</span></li>
</ol>
So the Tsipras regime paid the IMF. I did not see that coming, but, there are much bigger amounts due in the next 30 days as I wrote about last week, so this story is far from over.
<ol start="2">
	<li><span style="text-decoration: underline;"> OIL – YEMEN – IRAN:</span></li>
</ol>
This is just getting messier by the day. I cannot see an end game here in the short-term.
<ol start="3">
	<li><span style="text-decoration: underline;"> OVERVIEW:</span></li>
</ol>
Being a FUNDAMENTAL trader first then technical, the tensions around the EUROZONE and MIDDLE-EAST are playing havoc with my longer-term thoughts. I am finding it very hard to be anything other than a 30-minute trader at present. There is so much that could just implode and screw up day-swing trade potential set-ups, I am starting to view pullbacks as potential reversal patterns.

I am receiving lots of comments from subscribers about basically a “GBAB ‘N GO” approach to Forex trading. Whilst I am not, or do not consider myself this type of trader, I certainly wasn’t in 2014…am I getting this way in 2015?

Being totally honest the number of scalping 15-25 pip trades have increased dramatically year over year.

No matter what, the geopolitical events around the world have to be taken into consideration if you are seriously looking to trade beyond a day trade.

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">1.2 - LOOKING FORWARDS:</span>

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">MAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:
</span><span style="text-decoration: underline;">(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to </span><a href="http://www.forexfasctory.com">www.forexfasctory.com</a><span style="text-decoration: underline;"> and </span><a href="http://www.tradingeconomics.com">www.tradingeconomics.com</a><span style="text-decoration: underline;"> for more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).</span>

SUNDAY: N/A.

MONDAY: N/A.

TUESDAY: GBP – CPi.
TUESDAY: USD – Core Retail Sales, PPi &amp; Retail Sales Data..
TUESDAY: CNY – GDP.

WEDNESDAY: EUR – ECB Press Conference.
WEDNESDAY: CAD – BOC Rate Statement and Press Conference.
WEDNESDAY: NZD – Dairy Auction Prices.
WEDNESDAY: AUD – Employment Data

THURSDAY: N/A.

FRIDAY: CAD – CPi and Core CPi Data.
FRIDAY: USD – CPi and Core CPi Data.

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">MY THOUGHTS:</span>

It is a big week for news. There is a nice spread of items that have my attention.

Having had withdrawal symptoms from the ECB shifting away from monthly Press Conferences it will be great to see “old shifty” back in the hot seat. I will be looking forward to his comments related to GREECE. It should be pretty comfortable with the EUR/USD exchange rate how it sits at the moment, so maybe a low-key event is on the horizon…yeah right!

The Retail Sales and CPi data from the U.S. and Canada will be eagerly awaited, as this will direct central bank policy.

Aussie employment should be interesting with the mix between full and part-time ratios and the dairy prices usually have an impact on the Kiwi.

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<span style="text-decoration: underline;">CHINA and HONG KONG BROKERAGES:</span>

This made the headlines recently but I omitted to mention this in my blog. It will be rectified now.

Regulations between access to the HONK KONG market and CHINA have changed about being able to trade these markets based on location. Also the numbers of new broker accounts being opened in China is staggering. Over one million new accounts each week. I could not obtain confirmation on the number of FX versus EQUITIES accounts but would say the overwhelming number would be equity accounts.

This will be behind the rallies in Shanghai and Hong Kong, because all retail buyers do is buy. We have a new Chinese army of stock buyers without knowledge, training or experience on a buying spree of stocks. Freaky and scary… bear this in mind.

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<span style="text-decoration: underline;">1.3 - LOOKING SIDEWAYS (FOR GOOD MEASURE):
</span>

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">FOREX MARKET CONDITIONS:</span>

Subscribers to the PREMIUM SERVICE will know that about 1.00-2.00AM (EDT) on Friday morning last week I aggressively placed protective stops across the LIVE trades at that time basically covering all trades. Looking at the Forex market at that time I noted the following: -
<ul>
	<li>GOLD – strong</li>
	<li>USD (DXY) – strong</li>
	<li>S&amp;P Futures – up</li>
	<li>JPY – strong</li>
	<li>European futures – very strong</li>
	<li>U.S. 10-year bonds - strong</li>
</ul>
In my opinion at that time something had to give, as it just did not read right. I was simply not prepared to go back to sleep and have a potential European squeeze take place and have me awaken to negative positions across the board on a Friday that would potentially be extremely difficult to exit. I would have either had to have taken losses or sit through the weekend, with the backdrop of geopolitical events hanging over me. No thanks. I banked $$$ and had a good night’s sleep.

My purpose for writing this is that as traders, we are all faced with these dilemmas; some traders will just blow their accounts, refill them and start again. Been there, done that,got the T-shirt, made the video…never again.

It is never a bad thing to bank $$$. To try and be a clever fecker sitting in trades with the risk of giving $$$ back to your broker does not make sense to me, in particular with today’s markets.

As most of you know, I took a big hit on the GBP/CHF on the SNB Peg removal day. I am now never, to the very best of my abilities giving too much back to the brokers again…ever.

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<span style="text-decoration: underline;">FOREX LIQUIDITY:</span>

I read in the Financial Times last week that the Forex Market, which is now a USD$5.3 trillion a day on average marketplace, has a problem (Over the past few weeks I have been moaning about too many squeezes and weird market trading conditions).

It appears the mechanics of the market have been drawn into question. Is there a decline, or cyclical decline in Forex trading? I would say that it was noted recently that some of the banks who traded Forex were cutting back after taking some heavy losses.

Without doubt greater regulation in the banking industry is weeding out the “under the counter cheating” that took place and is becoming very quickly a trait of the past. I know for a fact that thousands of retail traders left after the SNB. Over leveraged accounts were wiped out.

Without doubt we see much larger volatile moves and if you are caught the wrong way it can be very painful.

To cover this volatility many of the banks have widened the spreads offered to their supporting brokers. This has resulted in many retail traders closing their accounts and no longer trading FOREX. Without doubt if banks lose money they will protect themselves and they will have a lower risk appetite. I think I wrote that in February this year daily volumes compared with January were lower by 16%. This is a significant number.

As if we do not have enough to consider, we now have a permanent liquidity fear if one of the major FX banks is absent from the market for a few moments…. just brilliant… just great.

Forex trading is an evolving market and is going through changes. All we can do is get the head down, look for high probability trades, set the best stops we can based on our RISK TOLERANCES and trade.

Like so many of you, I still find trading conditions quite difficult. I seem to be moving forwards and then backwards to move forwards again. It is very, very frustrating.

The PREMIUM SERVICE still moves forward in these sticky / changing conditions, so I am obviously delighted. It is much harder than last year but we still move forwards despite all that is thrown in our direction.

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<ol start="2">
	<li><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"> WHAT’S ON MY MIND: -
THE FUNDAMENTAL TRADERS OVERVIEW:</span></strong></li>
</ol>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>WHERE NEXT FOR THE DXY?
</strong>(DXY the USD Index closed last Friday at 99.33)</p>
What a difference interpretation makes on basically the same information.

At the March FOMC meeting, and with a subsequent statement, supporting charts and graphs plus FED Chair Yellen’s 90-minute press conference, the market viewed all things USD as DOVISH.

A few weeks later the minutes of the two-day FOMC meeting are released and they are viewed as HAWKISH.

What has changed?

Bugger all as far as I can see. The FED monetary policy has been pretty consistent, I know we are not helped with the fact that many local state FED governors keep mouthing off their own opinions to confuse the crap out of Wall Street and the Chicago pits. Guess what…? They are just brilliant at doing that. It may not be in a FED governor’s job specification to confuse the crap out of the market but they know they do it and they persist. It’s just a game, and a game with very high stakes all the same.

The markets appear to not be able to read what is actually written and place that in the brain for future reference.

Part of this game is that Wall Street expects Janet Yellen to say on June 21<sup>st</sup> at 10.00AM interest rates will be increased by 0.25%. This is just the same as CNN trying to gain knowledge of U.S. troop tactics in a war zone, air them on TV and then wonder why so many U.S. soldiers die in combat, then they blame the government.

All we have right now as far as I can see is speculation over the date / timing of the FED rate hike. I believe the market now accepts what the FOMC have been stating for a few meetings now that there will be a rate hike in 2015. At least that is a step forward. So it’s just a case of, is it before the summer in June or after the summer in September.

CNBC and BLOOMBERG are now in overdrive about a strong USD and the date of the rate hike.

Between now and the eventual rate hike what about the USD (DXY), where will it go?

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/USD-DXY-12042015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-5716" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/USD-DXY-12042015-1024x448.png" alt="USD (DXY) 12042015" width="1024" height="448" /></a>

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From the chart above you can see that I am merely looking at the recent pattern of bull flag formations and continuing them forwards. The last measured move targets between 102.00 and 103.00. It will be very, very ambitious if we get to these levels but never rule anything out.

From a Forex Trading perspective where for example does a DXY reading of 102.00 bring us in relation to the USD majors?

This is not an exact science but a move of about 220 in the DXY could have the following effect assuming all pairs tow the line…
<ul>
	<li>EUR/USD      1.0200 – 1.0300</li>
	<li>GBP/USD      1.4100 – 1.4200</li>
	<li>AUD/USD      0.7000 – 0.7100</li>
	<li>NZD/USD      0.6800 – 0.7000</li>
	<li>USD/CAD      1.3000 – 1.3200</li>
	<li>USD/CHF      1.0200 – 1.0300</li>
</ul>
These are big moves, but they are potentially what could happen if the DXY breaks higher to 102.00. Beyond 102.00 to 103.00 we would see the EUR/USD at parity or below.

Maybe some of the recent calls on sub-parity for the EUR/USD are not so far off the mark?

Time will tell. The other side of this article though is what happens once we reach 102.00 or 103.00? Do we consolidate or fall back to re-test 100.00? That is another article.

Just bear in mind what could happen should the DXY break out above 100.00 in style!!

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<ol start="3">
	<li><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:
</span></strong></li>
</ol>
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">SUMMARY OF PERFORMANCE:</span></strong>

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">3.1 – OVERVIEW and SUBSCRIPTION PRICING:</span>

For new readers who may not be aware, I refer to the PREMIUM SERVICE quite a lot in this blog and for more details about what it is, and, how much it costs, you will need to go the welcome page of <a href="http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> At the top of the page there are three drop down menus: PREMIUM SERVICE, PROMOTIONS (if available), SIGN-UP and DISCLAIMER. Further details and how to join are all contained there. You will need at PayPal account to subscribe.

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/PS-SUBSCRIPTION-COSTS-05042015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-5668" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/PS-SUBSCRIPTION-COSTS-05042015.png" alt="PS SUBSCRIPTION COSTS 05042015" width="380" height="473" /></a>

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">3.2 - SUMMARY OF PERFORMANCE:</span>

(Only the excel spreadsheets will now be shown in this section. References to previous, present and future trades “LAST WEEK’s TRADING REVIEW” will now be provided solely for the benefit of PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers and has been moved into section 4).

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">3.2.1 – PREMIUM SERVICE – COST INCOME ANALYSIS:</span>

&nbsp;
<p style="text-align: center;">EMANATING FROM TRADE SET-UPS - 2015 to date:</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;">MICRO LOT TRADER</span> - 226 trades cost to trade = $22.60
<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 226 trades = $324.90</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;">MINI LOT TRADER</span> - 226 trades cost to trade = $226.00
<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 226 trades = $3,249.00</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;">STANDARD LOT TRADER</span> - 226 trades cost to trade = $2,226.00
<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 226 trades = $32,490.00</p>
&nbsp;
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong><span style="color: #0000ff;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;">PLEASE NOTE:</span></span></strong></p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong><span style="color: #0000ff;">If this sort of risk/reward income opportunity interests you:</span></strong>
<strong><span style="color: #0000ff;">To join the PREMIUM SERVICE at the introductory level subscribe to the initial</span></strong>
<strong><span style="color: #0000ff;">4 week subscription and receive a 5<sup>th</sup> week FREE!!</span></strong>
<strong><span style="color: #0000ff;">See the PROMOTIONS tab on my landing page at</span></strong>
<strong><span style="color: #0000ff;">www.weeklyfxdrivrethru.com</span></strong></p>
&nbsp;

&nbsp;

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">3.2.2 - PREMIUM SERVICE - PROFIT/LOSS RATIOS:</span>

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/PROFIT-LOSS-RATIO-12042015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-5718" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/PROFIT-LOSS-RATIO-12042015.png" alt="PROFIT-LOSS RATIO 12042015" width="410" height="581" /></a>

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">3.2.3 - PREMIUM SERVICE - RISK/REWARD ANALYSIS:</span>

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/RISK-REWARD-12042015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-5717" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/RISK-REWARD-12042015.png" alt="RISK-REWARD 12042015" width="427" height="539" /></a>

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<span style="text-decoration: underline;">3.2.4 - PREMIUM SERVICE - OVERALL TRADE SUMMARY MONTH &amp; YTD:</span>

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/PREM-SERV-PROFITS-1-12042015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-5719" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/PREM-SERV-PROFITS-1-12042015.png" alt="PREM SERV PROFITS 1 12042015" width="461" height="434" /></a>

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<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/REM-SERV-PROFITS-2-12042015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-5720" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/REM-SERV-PROFITS-2-12042015.png" alt="REM SERV PROFITS 2 12042015" width="465" height="426" /></a>

&nbsp;
<ol start="4">
	<li><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBER EXCLUSIVE CONTENT:</span></strong></li>
</ol>
(Section 4 is exclusive PREMIUM SERVICE content only available to PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers)

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">4.1 - EDUCATION:
</span>(The full list of all items and more from this section can be found in the PREMIUM SERVICE website in the Trade Essential area under the EDUCATION tab.)

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">4.2 – THE PREMIUM SERVICE – TRADING REVIEW:</span>

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">4.3 - THE PREMIUM SERVICE - EXISTING LIVE TRADES:</span>

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">4.4 - THE PREMIUM SERVICE – EXISTING LIMIT ORDERS:</span>

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">4.5 - POTENTIAL TRADES - WHAT CHARTS AM I LOOKING AT?</span>

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">4.6 - MAJOR TRADING PAIRS WITH LONGER-TERM TRENDS MATCHING:</span>

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">4.7 - THE KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS</span><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">:</span></strong>

&nbsp;

&nbsp;
<ol start="5">
	<li><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"> THE CONCLUSION - MY FINAL THOUGHTS:</span></strong></li>
</ol>
<span style="text-decoration: underline;">5.1 - SUBSCRIBING TO THE “FREE VERSION” OF THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU:</span>

If you like what you have almost completed reading and want to have THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU delivered direct to your email inbox next week, here is what you do: -

Go to my website: - <a href="http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>

On the right hand side of the welcome page under my bio “about me” there is a blue box titled SUBSCRIBE TO FREE NEWSLETTER, click on profile and add your email address. It is as simple and straightforward as that.

I do NOT sell your email data to anyone…do not worry...one less thing to worry about!

&nbsp;

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">5.2 –TRADING TIPS &amp; THOUGHTS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD:</span>

We have a lot of geopolitical news hanging around and whilst this will not directly feature minute by minute this week, as traders we must not forget to be conscious of these events.

We will be constantly reminded about OIL, but maybe not so much about the middle-east tensions that can swing a market one way and then the other very quickly.

GREECE will hold the attention of the EUROZONE, this story is by no means over yet, in fact, it has only just really started. I am tired of hearing that GREECE is so small it doesn’t matter, this is complete bulls**t, the financial ramifications of a GREXIT or DEFAULT will be far reaching. Just remember what happened with Dubai and Cyprus, both tiny places but as they were financial centres they caused problems. I am not saying that GREECE is a financial centre, but it is a EUROZONE union member with a lot of its finances integrated into other EUROZONE countries and the ECB. Of course it will have an effect.

I am not 100% clear how the EUR/USD will react to any news regarding GREECE. The market is weird at times and knee-jerk reactions are very much the order of the trading day nowadays.

Geopolitical news is often very black and white but we seem of late to be moving in shades of grey…be thankful I did not refer to the number of shades!!

We will have opportunities to make $$$, we just have to be alert and careful.

As always, there will be trades to trade and there will be some great opportunities, please trade in line with your RISK MANAGEMENT parameters from your TRADING PLAN. If you do not have a TRADE PLAN, in my opinion, you should, as this will help you with consistency.
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>Consistency = longevity in trading and that is a critical goal.
IT IS THE KEY MEASUREMENT</strong></p>
Before you enter a trade work out the risk, price it in $$$. Place your stop accordingly. PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers have a full library of information on RISK MANAGEMENT, RISK TOLERANCES and POSITION SIZING etc. available for reference 24x7.

&nbsp;

Take care.

Scott Pickering
The Pip Accumulator
Sunday April 12th 2015

EMAIL / FOLLOW ME AT:
drivethru@weeklyfxdrivethru.com
Twitter: @pipaccumulator
Google+/scottpickering
Tumblr: thepipaccumulator

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<span style="text-decoration: underline;">TRADING &amp; PERFORMANCES DISCLAIMER:</span>

FLASH, RADAR and FUNDAMENTAL trade set-ups, “Tweets” and “Trade ideas” that are posted in my blogs or on Twitter are trades and set-ups that interest me. They are provided for training and informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as an offer, solicitation or recommendation of any specific security or investment strategy. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading Forex carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade any such leveraged products you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin, and seek advice from an independent financial adviser if you have any do.