&nbsp;

&nbsp;
<ol>
 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>
</ol>
Welcome 2017.

Wherever you are located, whether you celebrate the Christmas / New Year Holidays or not, I hope you had an enjoyable break.

I re-opened my screens last week, traded a little, lost more money than I made, getting caught up in thin volume trading and got taken in and out of trades whilst asleep, oh what joy, happy days, it feels great to be back!

Moving on…

Hopefully from next Monday onwards the markets will have a little more volume attached to them and it will business as usual. I ignored Non-Farm Payrolls and the like last week, I only managed existing trades. I am mentally and psychologically ready for next Monday 9<sup>th</sup> January.

What’s new to mention, that will appear different this year in comparison to last year?
<ol>
 	<li>The “DRIVE THRU” blog format / structure is being amended over the next few weeks. There are some subtle changes already in place.
One of the benefits of your own blog is the fact you can write all sorts of stuff, you can choose what or who you write about and how you write about them or it.
This year I am launching “SCOTT’S SOAPBOX” (Section 5 on most blog formats). I will “have a go” in my own way at a multitude of subjects and FX personalities as the year progresses. There is NO shortage of topics or numpties to write about. I have a plethora of subjects ready to rock.</li>
 	<li>Starting next Monday 9<sup>th</sup> January 2017 at 30PM EST – my long-awaited debut on PERISCOPE starts. The 30 minute or so broadcasts are through my twitter address @pipaccumulator
I can be flexible on this time but this was the most popular, and I like it. From my perspective, it's a great time as it will be after the close of day one of a new week. We can look at price movements based upon the previous week’s weekly candle plus the last two daily candles.
In 2016 movements on daily candles were the foundation of the PREMIUM SERVICE success.
All I ask is cut me some slack for the first two or three weeks whilst I get comfortable with the process….!!</li>
 	<li>During the holiday break, I have been asked by a few non-PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers to re-introduce the weekly training feature that was in my blog each week in 2013-2015.
Last year I had thought about bringing this back, however, I have decided that this is a PREMIUM SERVICE (PLATINUM) subscriber benefit This will be available on a one-on-one basis through the PLATINUM subscriber review meeting.</li>
</ol>
<ol start="4">
 	<li>PREMIUM SERVICE subscription prices have been updated for 2017.</li>
</ol>
Let’s hope that we have a directional, easy to read liquid market with all currencies obeying trend lines, chart pattern measured moves, and it respects Fibonacci levels. Boring as that might be we would all make plenty of $$$ should that happen.

My thoughts are that the forex market will be a dysfunctional mess of Central Bank governors clutching at straws in attempts to explain the unexplainable. In addition, we will have the desk sucking, pen pushing, jotter blotters, who are mainly unelected officials (numpties) in places such as Brussels, forcing through their own interpretations of policies creating chaos and disorder in all markets. Not to forget cartels like OPEC who do not even control 100% of their market trying to influence price by defying the pure economics of supply and demand.

In summary; I see 2017 a bit of a 2016 replay.

Let’s get at it….

<strong> </strong>
<ol start="2">
 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE – LOOKING FORWARD:</strong></li>
</ol>
<strong><u>NOTE:</u></strong> This year, 2017, I am not going to look backwards in this section only forwards. News items / points of interest from the prior week will be covered in the introduction.

<u>ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>

<a href="http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/ECON-DATA-08012017.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-8873" src="http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/ECON-DATA-08012017-935x1024.png" alt="" width="935" height="1024" /></a>

&nbsp;

<u>MY THOUGHTS ON THE WEEK AHEAD:</u>

It looks like a pretty light week on economic data this coming week.

Given the price action at the end of last week and the “TRUMP EFFECT” maybe being a little overdone to say the least, we could be in for a choppy period through to the “DONALD’S” inauguration.

I think that the fact we have seen reactions from both the Chinese and Mexican Central Banks to the  “TWEET EFFECT” from the U.S. President Elect, we will have more of the same on the calendar moving forward. I think we must expect the unexpected, and, frankly given the fact that TWITTER appears to be preferred method of communication at the moment on U.S. policy moves and ideas, we should be on our toes moving through Q1 2017 or at least until things settle down to the TRUMP way of being President. On the positive side, we will know in 140 characters what he’s thinking about rather than having to wade through pages of padding. Dare I say it, the FED could adopt this approach, and, whilst I am at it so could many of the other Central Banks, especially those awfully nice chaps from the RNBZ.

Therefore, looking ahead, I think that geopolitical news and the stock market will drive the currencies over the next week…. yikes!!

&nbsp;

<u> </u>

<u>USD MAJORS – “IMMEDIATE” SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE with TREND:</u>

<a href="http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/T-CHART-08012017.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-8872" src="http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/T-CHART-08012017-1024x794.png" alt="" width="1024" height="794" /></a>

&nbsp;

My trade charts for the USD majors are below. My thoughts, views and commentary is written on the charts.

You will find my charts, hopefully easy to follow. I only use Fibonacci levels, trend lines, confluence points and sometimes chart patterns to identify my high probability trades. If you have any difficulty understanding the points that I am trying to make, please do not hesitate to contract me.

EUR/USD:

<a href="http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/EURUSD-D-08012017.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-8879" src="http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/EURUSD-D-08012017-1024x475.png" alt="" width="1024" height="475" /></a>

&nbsp;

GBP/USD:

<a href="http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/GBPUSD-D-08012017.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-8880" src="http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/GBPUSD-D-08012017-1024x475.png" alt="" width="1024" height="475" /></a>

&nbsp;

AUD/USD:

<a href="http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/AUDUSD-D-08012017.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-8878" src="http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/AUDUSD-D-08012017-1024x475.png" alt="" width="1024" height="475" /></a>

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NZD/USD:

<a href="http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/NZDUSD-D-08012017.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-8881" src="http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/NZDUSD-D-08012017-1024x475.png" alt="" width="1024" height="475" /></a>

&nbsp;

USD/CAD:

<a href="http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/USDCAD-D-08012017.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-8882" src="http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/USDCAD-D-08012017-1024x475.png" alt="" width="1024" height="475" /></a>

&nbsp;

USD/CHF:

<a href="http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/USDCHF-240M-08012017.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-8883" src="http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/USDCHF-240M-08012017-1024x475.png" alt="" width="1024" height="475" /></a>

&nbsp;

USD/JPY:

<a href="http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/USDJPY-D-08012017.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-8884" src="http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/USDJPY-D-08012017-1024x475.png" alt="" width="1024" height="475" /></a>

<strong>

</strong>

&nbsp;
<ol start="3">
 	<li><strong>THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong><strong> </strong></li>
</ol>
<u>WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</u>

The PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber, fee based trade set-up option for Forex traders regardless of experience or background. I provide traders suggested trades, and some market commentary related to open trades or factors within the overall market that have my interest.

Full details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href="http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.

Additional information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.

<strong> </strong>

&nbsp;
<ol start="4">
 	<li><strong>PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:</strong></li>
</ol>
<u>TRADING REVIEW:</u>

Dabbling over the Christmas break was mixed. Some great pips just before Christmas Day and then between Christmas and New Year during thin Asian trading I got caught with two limit orders that triggered in and stopped out in a matter of minutes whilst I was asleep and another couple of trades also fell foul of the thin trading in the single currency… bugger.

Early New Year, I was trying to establish some core positions and fell foul of thinner trading volumes once again which created exaggerated moves.

All in all, I have a few pips to make up after booking some losses early on.

I do think that the possibility exists that the USD may be in for a re-trace. I view this as good news and want to try and stick with my POSITION TRADES as fundamentally I am comfortable with my trading direction. I am more than happy to stick with wider stops on the POSITION TRADES based off the monthly Average True Range (ATR) levels when necessary.

<u>MOVING FORWARD:</u>

We have the TRUMP inauguration to look forward to, followed by the fireworks, and I do not mean the ones that mostly go up into the sky.

We will endure a period of uncertainty and bold and brash statements as the TRUMP approach will be to turn the long-established log jams in Washington upside down and inside out. I fully expect him to name and shame those who block moves. It should be interesting as voters will be able to see if their elected representative is a mover or a blocker

From a trading perspective, we will have uncertainty in these unchartered waters in the U.S.

The EUROZONE, frankly a bit laughable and there will be massive uncertainty for the next 6 months. I want to try to establish some longer term POSITION TRADES with the single currency and to some extent the USD/CHF as well, but a short-term flight to safety trade even with negative interest rates does concern me. Maybe I have some sort of vitamin deficiency or something, but I am not comfortable trading unless I have some CHF exposure to the short side (CHF).

Given what I have just written, and, the fact that I will be having to clear up some losses first, I am expecting a gradual 2017 build up.

I am 100% focused for the year ahead, it will have its moments though.

<u>CENTRAL BANK - INTEREST RATE DECISIONS 2017:</u>

The chart below details the dates (not all 100% confirmed), correct as at 1<sup>st</sup> January 2017, for Interest Rate decisions this year.

<a href="http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/CB-INTEREST-RATES-2017.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-8874" src="http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/CB-INTEREST-RATES-2017-810x1024.png" alt="" width="810" height="1024" /></a>

&nbsp;

<u>WEBINAR PRESENTATION:</u>

Some of you may see some PREMIUM SERVICE advertising on social media offering a FREE FOREX WEBINAR. Yes; it is me with my scouse accent for 49 minutes and 23 seconds. I am going to let these webinars run for a good while initially and review content for Q2.

The purpose of the webinar is to seek out serious and committed Forex traders like yourself.

Ultimately, I will move periscope to YouTube and create a wider on-line presence… at least that is the objective this and next year.

&nbsp;

<u>BROKERS for 2017:</u>

I have had to play with and alter around some of my brokers relationships. It does appear that Canada, not just Quebec, has decided to follow the U.S. with a Dodd /Frank style of approach, just as TRUMP is being sworn in and probably about to repeal most of the Dodd/Frank bureaucracy. (If only they were as diligent on consumer products that have false promises on the label!!).

The result of these changes is as follows: -
<ol>
 	<li>I have had to close a couple of 10 year relationships, which frankly is upsetting. Hopefully moving to Prince Edwards Island in April, I may be able to re-kindle relationships, who knows.</li>
 	<li>BLACKWELL GLOBAL, FX PRO and AVATRADE have all gone by the wayside. My “LIVE” traders group with these brokers have now moved to VANTAGE FX based in Sydney, Australia.</li>
 	<li>For now, until the dust settles only HANTEC MARKETS and VANTAGE FX remain as my recommended brokers.

I commenced trading with two new brokers in the middle of last year, when it became apparent that changes were on the horizon. Hopefully once through an extensive testing period I will add more options once again.</li>
</ol>
<u> </u>

<u>CORE TRADES:</u>
<ol>
 	<li>AUD/NZD: – Frustrating as it is I am still a believer. I will continue to add on pullbacks and lift off 50 -100 pip gains as they become available.</li>
 	<li>I have also added the EUR/NZD to the NZD portfolio, but, I do not think that this will be a very long term addition. I expected a large move higher in this pair, for now we are trapped in a 150-pip trading range.</li>
 	<li>NZD/USD: – I have started to build, and I will be adding again.

The RBNZ is in control, and in my opinion, this is one of the most overpriced currencies in the market at this moment in time. Central Bank divergence should play its part in having this currency revalue organically, but with most, if not all FX fundamentals, patience will be required.

China does concern me. I believe the GDT auctions will be more NZD negative this year as the China family birth control factors will kick in stronger.

The TRUMP factor on China may help my longer-term views?</li>
 	<li>AUD/USD: - I allowed myself to be stopped out with this pair. I am looking for higher levels to re-stablish short positions once again.

The RBA is neutral. China worries me but TRUMP could cause waves on China with commodities and this could negatively affect the AUD.</li>
 	<li>EUR/USD and USD/CHF: - Core positions now being established and I am looking to add more trades as the month progresses.

Always going to be looking to add, I think that for at least Q1 and Q2 the EUROZONE will remain under downside pressures. If BREXIT negotiations are difficult, which I believe they should be, the German desire for the ECB to raise rates could be seen for what it is, which is, in an election year pure and utter propaganda to win over the German savers who have been taken to the cleaners with zero savings interest rates for many years now and at all elections they are being fed a plate of empty promises.</li>
</ol>
&nbsp;

<u>PERISCOPE:</u>

I am starting Monday 9<sup>th</sup> January, 2017 at 5:30PM EST. This was time most favoured by those of you who responded to my request.

Let’s see how I get on with the technology; the subject matter should be straightforward. I have a loose agenda prepared based upon the week ahead.

As promised if it is successful I will add a restricted version for you guys, I am assuming that this is possible to do.

&nbsp;

<strong> </strong>

<u>PREMIUM SERVICE - TRADES REVIEW<strong>:</strong></u>

CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE - LIVE TRADES:

<a href="http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/PS-LIVE-TRADES-08012017.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-8876" src="http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/PS-LIVE-TRADES-08012017-785x1024.png" alt="" width="785" height="1024" /></a>

CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE – LIMIT ORDER TRADES:

<a href="http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/PS-LIMIT-ORDERS-08012017.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-8875" src="http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/PS-LIMIT-ORDERS-08012017-735x1024.png" alt="" width="735" height="1024" /></a>

&nbsp;
<ol start="5">
 	<li><strong>SCOTT’S SOAPBOX:</strong></li>
</ol>
If you recall, in my final “DRIVE THRU” of 2016, I provided a list of TRADING PREDICTIONS for 2017. I basically named several geopolitical events that I feel will weigh on the markets this year. Therefore, for the first few weeks of 2017, I want to look at these events in a little more detail.

As you will be aware, so much has been said already on the subjects that I have highlighted, I can only add points and views that are my own, based upon how I see things and how I am going to view trading around these events.

<strong> </strong>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>BREXIT – A LOT OF HOT AIR AND AS OF </strong><strong>“RIGHT NOW” … STILL NOTHING HAS HAPPENED</strong></p>
As we all know Forex is a future pricing mechanism. Since late June last year after the BREXIT referendum took place, we have all sat back and waited for the mass job losses, economic disaster, financial markets in chaos and general doom and gloom to have run a riot in the UK. It just has not happened. All the fear mongering from David Cameron (Prime Minister at the time) and George Osborne (Chancellor of the Exchequer at the time) was just that…. fear mongering based on zero facts. In fact, if the truth be told those who supported and campaigned for the BREXIT have been closer to the truth than they probably thought during the fierce campaigning that took place in the run up to the June vote.

The vote to leave the EU was a huge one and so far, bugger all has happened apart from Messrs. Cameron and Osborne resigning and Theresa May being voted in by the Tory government as the new Prime Minister. Article 50 from the Lisbon treaty has still to be triggered. Prime Minister May has signaled that this will done prior to the end of march 2017.

After the vote came in there was huge uncertainty, the cable dropped like a lead balloon and the BOE under the guidance of the part-time JCB driver on forward guidance aka BOE governor Mark Carney took immediate steps to protect the cable by reducing interest rates to 0.25% and provided additional sterling support through further Quantitative Easing (QE) by an additional £70 billion ensuring competitiveness in business and continued low interest rates for consumers amongst other stabling factors.

Can you remember his Presidential style walk along a c.300-meter corridor to arrive at his lectern to deliver his rate cutting announcement? That walk was so damn long his mother had given him a packed lunch to eat half way and when he arrived at the lectern he needed to move his watch an hour forward… talk about over dramatic, Holy Mother of God.

So, let me look at a few key areas the BRITS were told would feck up their lives if they voted to BREXIT and where are we right now:

&nbsp;
<ul>
 	<li>THE ECONOMY:

Huge negative impact and consumer confidence would be crapping the bed. The economy continues to grow. In the quarter following the BREXIT vote by 0.6%.
Retail sales grew 5.9% year over year in November 2016. Inflation has risen to 1.2% in November up from 0.5% in June 2016.
CPi is at 1.2% the highest since October 2014.
House price inflation has continued to ease following the BREXIT. This is most apparent in the London area where the impact of BREXIT will be felt the most.
Construction is bullish despite the rise in raw material prices that are imported.
The trade gap widened then narrowed in October as exports rose considerably helped by a weaker cable.
The job front it is more muddled. Unemployment fell from June to October but has since cooled a little as the Financial Services sector uncertainty starts to weigh a little.</li>
 	<li>THE CABLE (CURRENCY):

As expected with uncertainty and fueled by the BOE the GBP/USD exchange rate fell from 1.4700 to sub 1.2100 in the months that followed the BREXIT vote. Right now, I believe that cable is in a wide trading range of 1.2100 to 1.2800, see the chart below.
This move in currency, whilst it has helped exporters, has on the other side made foreign trips abroad for UK tourists more expensive and at the same time import prices for goods have also increased. Obviously, tourist numbers into the UK have increased significantly with a weaker cable.</li>
 	<li>NEGOTIATIONS TO LEAVE THE EU:

Nothing formal yet. Basically, Prime Minister May was advised by EU leaders that the UK would NOT have it easy leaving the EU and it would NOT be allowed to cherry pick EU benefits that it would like to retain given its proximity to mainland Europe. In fact, EU leaders gave Prime Minister May what amounted to a European “Two finger” salute by saying feck off and until you trigger article 50 we are not talking to you.
The whole situation around article 50 is cloudy. David Davis who is Secretary of State for leaving the EU, hasn't even confirmed that he will lead the negotiating team. So, mismanaged is the BREXIT itself the highest-ranking UK official in Brussels Sir Ivan Rogers resigned only last week claiming it’s all a muddle!
The EU has announced that former French Foreign Minister Michel Barnier will head up to lead the negotiations on behalf of the European Commission. No favours here, technically the BRITS and FRENCH are still at war. There will be no “Entente Cordiale”.
So it’s all up to Prime Minister May to trigger article 50.</li>
</ul>
The bottom line; nothing has happened yet.

When the BREXIT vote came through, I must admit my initial thoughts were that the UK would see this process as time consuming, uncertain, pro-longed and expensive. I thought that the government would do what has previously happened in IRELAND and THE NETHERLANDS…have another vote!!

I had convinced myself that after a few weeks the calls for a re vote because the initial vote was so close would prevail. I have since changed my thoughts.

The alleged two years to exit is in my opinion a bit of a dream. Greenland population c.56,000 people left the EU it took them 2 years to exit. With a population of 65 million the UK, is never going to exit in two years given how inter-twined it currently is with the EU. Greenland had a bit of a partnership and that took two years, the BRITS have a far more complex situation.

The EU must remain strong and ensure that no special deals are done otherwise there will be a CONTAGION EFFECT as other countries line up to do likewise. The populist vote as seen by BREXIT and then TRUMP is in the ascendancy. There are elections in France, The Netherlands and Germany this year and in all three cases the existing leadership is under a serious threat.

In fact, I would go so far as to say that the EU leaders have done nothing at all to stem the tide of the growth in the populist parties back in their own countries, if anything the fact they (as a group) failed to unite after the BREXIT has only fueled the populist parties.

I have written many times over the past 5/6 years about the fact that main stream politicians are practically useless in using political courage to knock back the populist right. I firmly believe that this is having more than just a minimal effect on EU stability. It is being seen / viewed by voters as mainstream politicians being out of touch.

&nbsp;

MOVING FORWARD and TRADING:

<a href="http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/GBPUSD-FOR-BLOG-SECT5-08012017.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-8877" src="http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/GBPUSD-FOR-BLOG-SECT5-08012017-1024x475.png" alt="" width="1024" height="475" /></a>

The BRITS must trigger article 50 before the end of March 2017, failure to do so will have the cable and the single currency doing a merry dance, with the EUR/GBP not knowing whether it’s coming or going.

With elections on the horizon the EU will be under its own pressures should a far-right party establish a foothold. It just requires one country to vote out mainstream politics and then we have a domino effect, then a potential CONTAGION.

This year I expect the EUR to be under pressure, and it will not take much to see it slip through parity and target lower levels such as 0.9500. We are dangerously close resting around the 1.0500-1.0700 levels, a couple of days with moves lower and if sub 1.0300 is taken a test of parity is on the cards.

The cable is still in a bubble despite some sideways moves of late. We are however just range trading and frankly a difficult BREXIT negotiation, which I am certain it will be, will result in a move lower. This talk of SOFT BREXIT / HARD BREXIT, is in my opinion a load of bollocks. It will be tough for the reasons I have already outlined, so to me it’s always going to be a HARD BREXIT…. nothing less. Price wise with the GBP/USD a re-test of just below 1.2100 is there for the taking and frankly 1.1500 maybe even less, looks more than achievable when you think of what needs to be done and the time that this is going to take.

The GBP crosses all look vulnerable except for the EUR/GBP for the reasons outlined above regarding the single currency. All the previous lows with the GBP/AUD, GBP/CAD, GBP/CHF, GBP/JPY and GBP/NZD are there, in my opinion for the taking.

When you think so much has been said, so much has been suggested, so many analysts have voiced opinions and so much has been rumoured by so many people and institutions yet to date, nothing serious has happened apart from the vote itself some 7 months ago!!

I can guarantee you that I will be revisiting this subject more than a dozen times this year.

<strong> </strong>
<ol start="6">
 	<li><strong>CLOSING THOUGHTS:</strong></li>
</ol>
Nothing more to add here, I have said enough except,

As usual…

Always remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.

Take care, have a great trading week.

Scott Pickering
The Pip Accumulator

<a href="http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>

BLOG VERSION: #122 THE PREMIUM SERVICE
DATE: 8<sup>th</sup> January 2017.<strong>

</strong>