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<ol>
	<li><strong> INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>
</ol>
It’s great to back after my summer vacation. If I found it a bit slow in the early part of last week, all those thoughts disappeared very quickly following the ECB Press Conference. All the volatility that had gone from the Forex over the past three/four months re-appeared very quickly and the moves in the EUR and GBP were huge. The EUR/USD moved over 225 pips lower, it’s biggest move in 3 years and Cable moved over 100 pips lower.

I have been pretty slow getting back into trades, lots of reading and re-familiarization with charts. I was not 100% detached during August I was looking at my FUNDAMENTAL trades, which I had left open during the month, but I would not be telling the truth if I said I was in full trading mode.

Non-Farm payroll was for me a little muted. As usual I had my TRADING PLAN in place but nothing really triggered. It was a little frustrating to say the least.

My feature in the BLOG this week will be taking a look at the longer-term charts. The move after Draghi’s Press Conference really took the whole market by surprise and we definitely have a sentiment shift brewing as the markets are quickly coming to the realization that the two major central banks in the world the FOMC and ECB are on divergent paths. The FOMC is looking to raise interest rates and the ECB is cutting rates, hence the strength of the USD. This realization, we as Forex Traders have been working with for months but equity traders are always the last to the party and now I think the penny has dropped! Because of this I think some charting is required.

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<ol start="2">
	<li><strong></strong><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE: –</strong>&nbsp;</li>
</ol>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>OVERVIEW, TRADING ACTIVITY, NEWS UPDATE &amp; MONTHLY AND </strong></p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>YEAR TO DATE TRADING SUMMARIES:</strong></p>
2.1 OVERVIEW:

For new readers who may not be aware, I refer to the PREMIUM SERVICE quite a lot in this blog and for more details about what it is, and, how much it costs, you will need to go the welcome page of <a href="http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> At the top of the page there are three drop down menus: PREMIUM SERVICE, SIGN-UP and DISCLAIMER. Further details and how to join are all contained there. You will need at PayPal account to subscribe.

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2.2 TRADING ACTIVITY:

Trading activity in the first week (four days really after Labour Day) was quiet, adjusting to the market.

Of the trades 5 trades that were closed during the week 4 were profitable trades yielding a nice 180 pips profit between them. The negative trade in the week, which was a loss trade of 97 pips, was the longer-term FUNDAMENTAL hedged trade GBP/AUD (FUN37) that had been live from July 17<sup>th</sup> 2014. I had the chance to move the stops and my mindset switched to the ECB news instead. The cost of running two back-to-back trades was getting a little more than I had originally intended in any case.

Overall single lot trades net on the four days had you been 100% mirroring my trades would have resulted in a profit banked of: -

MICRO LOT TRADERS                  $8.30*
MINI LOT TRADERS                       $83.00*
STANDARD LOT TRADERS          $830.00*

*The above is an illustrated example of the net profits available if single lot position sized trades had been undertaken on the 5 trades mentioned above with exactly the same entry and exit levels

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2.3 NEWS UPDATE:

Later this month, I will be starting my road trip with a series of sales presentations of the WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU / PREMIUM SERVICE seminars under the title AN INTRODUCTION TO FOREX TRADING.

I will be starting with a series of presentations in Montreal, Canada as follows: -

DATES:            Saturday 13<sup>th</sup> and Sunday 14<sup>th</sup> September 2014.

VENUE:           Hampton Inn and Suites.

ADDRESS:      1900 Rte. Transcanadienne (Nr. Blvd Des Sources), MONTREAL.
TIMES:             Saturday - 11.30AM, 2.30PM and 4.30PM.
Sunday - 2.30PM and 4.30PM.

Seating will be limited. If you are coming and want to reserve a place please contact me via email and I will confirm a reserved seat as close to the front as possible.

If you are an existing subscriber and want to introduce yourself and say hello please come along if you have time to spare.

If you are an existing subscriber and have friends that are interested in Forex come along with them.

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2.4 MONTHLY AND YEAR TO DATE TRADING SUMMARIES<strong>:</strong>

Below I show the up to date performances for my various trading styles. Full excel spreadsheets are in the subscriber area of the PREMIUM SERVICE website.

Below are the excel spreadsheets covering this month so far and the year 2014 to date.

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/PREM-SERV-PROFITS1-06092014.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-4290" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/PREM-SERV-PROFITS1-06092014.png" alt="PREM SERV PROFITS1 06092014" width="446" height="415" /></a>

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/PREM-SERV-PROFITS2-06092014.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-4291" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/PREM-SERV-PROFITS2-06092014.png" alt="PREM SERV PROFITS2 06092014" width="464" height="422" /></a>

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The above examples are for illustration purposes only:

The profitability examples detailed above are based solely upon single lot trading, regardless of lot type. If multiple lot sizes are traded the profitability margins will be different than those shown.

Just to provide more information so you understand where I am coming from with the risk / reward statements above. All of my trades are of different sizes and different size lot types. The above does not reflect the actual trading performance, but it does show you the direction of the performance of the trades placed.

I like to add to trades, profits are taken as the trade progresses and my overall cost average moves several times. All of my trades are of different lot styles. I trade a mixture of micro lots, mini lots and standard lots across my brokers.

The above results simply display your profit or loss if you placed a single lot trade on all the set-ups suggested and did nothing else.

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<ol start="3">
	<li><strong> THE FUNDAMENTAL TRADERS OVERVIEW:</strong></li>
</ol>
<strong> </strong>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>USD MAJORS – LONGER TERM CHARTS:</strong></p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>(SIMPLE CHART ANALYSIS)</strong></p>
I think that we are at a crossroads of realization for certain parts of the market, as the ECB continue to ease and the FED look to end quantitative easing and enter a period of starting to raise rates. The divergent policies are USD supportive and with the potential of finally seeing some directional moves I think for the short-term at least following the huge ECB news move last Thursday we should look at areas of entry.

For those who follow me on a regular basis, you will know that I try my best at all times to keep things as simple and straightforward as possible. The charts that follow have been stripped down so that they are easy to visualize on computers, laptops and tablets.

I have stripped out the following indicators that I used in my analysis on some of the pairs: -

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<ul>
	<li>Multi Fibonacci level indicators (I have left only the one(s) to make my point in place.</li>
	<li>Simple Moving Averages (SMAS) 50, 100 &amp; 200 day.</li>
	<li>Bollinger Bands</li>
	<li>Pivot Points</li>
</ul>
If any of the above are included on a chart they are there for a reason, but my overriding goal was to present a very simple, clean straightforward chart.
As you know we tend to over-complicate analysis. Basically, all I am looking for are places of interest on the charts where there is buying and selling interest for me to either buy or sell back in the direction of the pair or to go countertrend as I feel that either buyers will dominate sellers or vice-versa.

I hope that the charts are clean and easy to follow and not too complicated for traders new to Forex. In my opinion there is no need to over-complicate, I hope that these charts reflect this desire.

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EUR/USD:

We are in a down sloping trend as seen on the monthly chart below. In one form or another I have been using this chart as the backbone of many of my EUR/USD decisions.

I entered short yesterday after Non-Farm Payrolls were released a 1.2979.

Looking at the chart using the 1.2020 lows last year to the 1.3966 highs in May of this year, as you can see we are now moving back in the direction of the trend. Given the change in monetary policy from the ECB it is the intention of the ECB to drive the value of the EUR lower. It will NOT be a straight line down and at this stage nobody knows what levels the ECB are aiming at. There will be umpteen different views on this point. For now given what I know and what I have read the ECB is NOT embarking on this policy shift for 200/300 pips, I would think they have a 1.2000 in mind at least. The 61.8% retracement level of 1.2764 looks to be an initial target worth aiming for, and, my bias on this pair is short.

If you follow my on the PREMIUM SERVICE you will get my thoughts as this trade develops over the coming weeks and months.

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/EURUSD-WEEKLY-06092014.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-4281" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/EURUSD-WEEKLY-06092014-1024x536.png" alt="EURUSD WEEKLY 06092014" width="1024" height="536" /></a>

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GBP/USD:

The Scottish Referendum later this month has a cloud hanging over the cable. Whilst the trend is definitely lower, polls are going to come thick and fast as time moves forward and any new poll suggesting that the vote has increased to stay in the UK will no doubt be met with a severe bounce in the GBP.

The pair, right now, is well oversold and a bounce would in no way be surprising but the referendum vote is dominating right now. The next support level is at 1.6218, which is only horizontal support; if you wanted to try a long trade this may be a reasonable place with a tight stop. For me, I am more inclined to trade the EUR/GBP short instead.

The EUR direction is pretty safe and should the cable bounce this will add to the EUR/GBP short pressure. If pushed, my bias on this pair is short, but for now I am staying away because of higher risk

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/GBPUSD-WEEKLY-06092014.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-4280" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/GBPUSD-WEEKLY-06092014-1024x536.png" alt="GBPUSD WEEKLY 06092014" width="1024" height="536" /></a>

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AUD/USD:

I posted this chart earlier this week and although a day or two has passed since it’s posting the comments have remained valid. This pair is holding up very well and the cross-rate NZD/AUD is very strong keeping the AUD/USD elevated. I am looking at the range being 0.9300 to 0.9500.

If you are a cautious trader like me you may want to see it top first before moving. Looking at target levels on the AUD/NZD, a while back I was long that pair with a level of 1.1350 as my goal. I am no longer in that pair but given recent moves that objective would in my opinion co-inside with 0.9450 on the AUD/USD. My AUD/NZD analysis is now for a move above 1.1350. Therefore the cautious trader in me would be looking at 0.9500 (This is a fib and there is some horizontal support visible on the chart) as the stronger entry short with this pair. That is what I am thinking at the moment. At the back of my mind if this pair breaks 0.9500, there is nothing stopping it until 0.9700. Glenn Stevens and RBA would have a fit at those levels. I have no bias on this pair at these levels.

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/AUDUSD-WEEKLY-06092014.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-4282" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/AUDUSD-WEEKLY-06092014-1024x536.png" alt="AUDUSD WEEKLY 06092014" width="1024" height="536" /></a>

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NZD/USD:

Trading very heavy of late and the cross-rate AUD/NZD reflects the comparison between the AUD and NZD currencies. This pair got a nice bump up on the back of Non-Farm payrolls, which is giving an opportunity to enter short. During the week just gone 0.8330 to 0.8350 were good resistance points and contained this pair. Beyond 0.8350, there is Fibonacci resistance sitting at 0.8420. Support is good at 0.8270, which is the recent low just beyond the 50% Fibonacci level of 0.8285. My bias on this pair is short.

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/NZDUSD-WEEKLY-06092014.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-4279" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/NZDUSD-WEEKLY-06092014-1024x536.png" alt="NZDUSD WEEKLY 06092014" width="1024" height="536" /></a>

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USD/CAD:

This pair is looking more and more choppy to me. The big range is 1.0800 to 1.1000. Inside of this range we are pushing and pulling within 1.0850 to 1.0910. A break of this mini-range should set up a nice short-term one or two day trade in my opinion. The chart is maybe too easy to follow…this always worries me!!

My bias is more to the long side.

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/USDCAD-DAILY-CHART.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-4278" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/USDCAD-DAILY-CHART-1024x536.png" alt="USDCAD DAILY CHART 06092014" width="1024" height="536" /></a>

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USD/CHF:

I want to get long this pair. Now that I wrote that I need to see it hit support at 0.9175 first. Whilst many people are focused on this pair having an inverted relationship with the EUR/USD, I am also looking at the SNB to see if they will copy the ECB and be called into action and copy negative overnight bank deposit rates. This pair is worth keeping on your radar. I would not be surprised to see move back towards 0.9650 and maybe beyond. My bias is to the long side.

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/USDCHF-MONTHLY-06092014.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-4277" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/USDCHF-MONTHLY-06092014-1024x536.png" alt="USDCHF MONTHLY 06092014" width="1024" height="536" /></a>

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USD/JPY:

Regular followers will know that this is not my favourite pair to trade, in fact I do whatever I can to avoid it. If it weren’t for the fact that I have a few on-going jokes with one or two subscribers of the PREMIUM SERVICE I would not even discuss it.
Moving on… 105.30 to 105.50 is an area of confluences of horizontal support and Fibonacci levels. There are other fib levels in this area but to keep the charts clean so that you can follow I took them away from the final print. This is therefore a great area to short from. The pair pushed through taking stops to 105.70 and was whacked back down. Support around 104.50 to 104.70 from last week looks to be the bottom side of the range. No bias on this pair.

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/USDJPY-MONTHLY-06092014.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-4276" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/USDJPY-MONTHLY-06092014-1024x536.png" alt="USDJPY MONTHLY 06092014" width="1024" height="536" /></a>

<strong> </strong>
<ol start="4">
	<li><strong> LOOKING FORWARD…THE KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS:</strong></li>
</ol>
<strong> </strong>

<strong>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.2950.</strong> I wonder what the reaction in this pair would have been if the Non-Farm numbers yesterday had been blowout numbers? At it was they weren’t and we really didn’t do much for all the fustering about that went on, in fact the range for the day was a mere 67 pips, compared with over 225 the day before. I do think that this pair is heading lower and for the immediate couple of sessions into the week 1.2915 and 1.3000 should be treated as the range.

<strong>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.6297</strong>. Very similar to the EUR/USD, after the shenanigans of Thursday a rather muted 63 pip range yesterday. The referendum in Scotland on whether to remain in the UK or leave is hanging over the cable like “The Sword of Damocles”. I am staying clear of cable until the vote is done as every poll on voting intentions affects the pair directly and holding the pair is risky. If you have the ability to take on a high risk strategy and want to take on high over the next few sessions I see 1.6250 to 1.6400 being the range.<strong> </strong>

<strong>AUD/USD: Closing Price 0.9378</strong>. This pair is well bid primarily due to the cross-rate effect of the AUD/NZD, which is very elevated at the moment. I am looking at 0.9300 to 0.9500 as the range. However, within this range we see good support and resistance at 0.9330 and 0.9440.

<strong>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8317</strong>. The RBNZ has its interest rate decision on Wednesday and good old Graeme “Whichever way the wind blows” Wheeler will stepping out with his press conference. I think it will be the usual “do as I say not as I do” speech. In any event rate rises are out of the question now and I think that he will refer to exchange rates being abnormally high or words to that effect. The range that interests me is 0.8268 to 0.8400.

<strong>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.0879.</strong> This pair I accidently pressed yes to a trade to enter long yesterday. The Scott “Finger of an anxious Trader” rather Maradona’s “Hand of God” got me into my long trade. Now I am bullish on the pair but like the Aussie it is contained within two ranges 1.0810 to 1.1000 being the outer range and 1.0850 to 1.0910 being the levels to concern us over the next few sessions.

<strong>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.9295</strong>. I am really hyped on whether the SNB will act on the back of ECB negative rates. The EUR/CHF is hovering above 1.2050 and I think any major geopolitical news that concerns Europe will drive this pair lower and I suspect that the SNB will act to defend the EUR/CHF floor of 1.2000. The result is that every CHF pair benefits. I am looking to enter long on a pullback as even if the SNB does not act the inverted relationship that the USD/CHF has with the EUR/USD means that this pair should break higher anyhow. My preferred entry level is 0.9180 and resistance for now is at 0.9350.

<strong>USD/JPY: Closing Price 104.70. </strong>The range for this pair is 104.50 to 105.50. Dare I say it but if this pair breaks through 105.70 and I may get long looking for a move to 112.00.

<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>
<ol start="5">
	<li><strong> MAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:</strong></li>
</ol>
<strong> </strong>

SUNDAY: N/A.

MONDAY: AUD – NAB Business Confidence.

TUESDAY: GBP – Inflation Report Hearings.

WEDNESDAY: NZD – RBNZ Interest Rate Statement and Press Conference.
WEDNESDAY: AUD – Employment Change and Unemployment Rate.

THURSDAY: N/A.

FRIDAY: USD – Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales

<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>
<ol start="6">
	<li><strong> FINAL THOUGHTS:</strong></li>
</ol>
Lots of things to consider for next week, I am really hoping that with the FED and ECB on divergent monetary policies we will see the USD come into its own and really start to move. The benefit of this should be directional trading. I may be hoping too much with this, but right now to me, it is obvious. Lets hope that I am correct; we have not had directional trading for quite sometime. If equities start to pullback as well it will be 24x5 trading.

No mater what type or style of trading we have, always, PLAN YOUR TRADES and TRADE YOUR PLAN regardless of market activity, in addition continue to exercise TRADING DISCIPLINE and do <strong>NOT</strong> FORCE TRADES as the chances are you run a much higher risk than normal of being caught out on the wrong side.

Scott Pickering
The Pip Accumulator
Saturday September 6th 2014

EMAIL / FOLLOW ME AT:
drivethru@weeklyfxdrivethru.com
Twitter: @pipaccumulator
Google+/scottpickering

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