<h3 style="text-align: center;"><strong>THE PREMIUM SERVICE
</strong><strong>(The Home of Single-Lot $$$$ Trading)</strong></h3>
<strong>DATE: 01.02.2015
REFERENCE: #45
</strong><strong>BLOG: THE PREMIUM SERVICE</strong>

&nbsp;
<ol>
	<li><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"> INTRODUCTION:</span></strong></li>
</ol>
What a fascinating week of trading. It was probably, one of my most successful weeks in recent times.

Given all the shenanigans of the month: - the surprise SNB EUR/CHF peg removal, the ECB with the Draghi QE announcement, the BOC surprise rate cut, the FED remaining vague and patient, and finally, the RBNZ change in monetary policy to being more accommodative “Dovish”. The big news events last month were in fact “mega” news events, whether they were planned or not. To have these types of news event, the likes of which, we may only see once in a lifetime, and, and to have them all in the same month (plus some surprises), certainly raised not just eyebrows but stress levels as well.

The fallout from the SNB continues to roll on, there are now reports surfacing about how much individual brokers lost, plus who is forgiving and who is not forgiving negative balances. I am still waiting on FXCM to advise me what is happening with my loss.

Moving on, the big news events this week are: -
<ul>
	<li>RBA Interest Rate Statement</li>
	<li>RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler</li>
	<li>PMi Data from China, UK, Canada and U.S.</li>
	<li>AUD, CAD and U.S. Trade Balances.</li>
	<li>CAD, NZD and U.S. Employment Data including Non-Farm Payrolls.</li>
</ul>
So…. It is a very big FX week, and, we should expect a surprise, maybe not a rate cut but maybe a more “Dovish” statement from RBA Governor Glenn Stevens.

The “D” word, to you and me “DEFLATION” is now being quoted more often than the wimpish EUROZONE and Ben Bernanke’s “D” word - “DIS-INFLATION” version, so the PMi and Trade Balance numbers will be very closely watched. Literally, every day this week brings us something to trade around.

The markets are very skittish at the moment, the U.S. indices that lead the world are moving very strangely and look to be at levels that are prime for a pullback, but I have been saying that for about two years to no avail… One time I will be right….

&nbsp;
<ol start="2">
	<li><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"> WHAT’S ON MY MIND: -
THE FUNDAMENTAL TRADERS OVERVIEW:</span></strong></li>
</ol>
<strong>COMMODITY CURRENCIES SHOULD BE THE FOCUS OF YOUR FX TRADING AT THE MOMENT</strong>

Over the past week or so it has become increasingly obvious that commodity currencies and in particular the commodity cross rates have been very much the flavour of making $$$ out of the Forex market.

All of the fall-out with the USD following the SNB and the ECB has meant that the DXY is testing major resistance levels and as a result the USD has tended to consolidate its recent moves. The EUR/USD had a monumental move lower on the back of ECB announcement of its QE program. Thus, the move in the USD took on an overbought picture and we need to allow time for consolidation before the recent DXY highs are re-tested.

The commodity currencies, AUD, NZD and CAD have whilst all the attention has been focused on the EUR/USD, weakened quite dramatically.

As you are probably aware there is a worldwide sell-off of commodities in general and therefore it stands to reason that the commodity currencies would be affected.

Initially our focus was on OIL. The USD/CAD broke out to the long side on the back of Oil weakness. There is a glut of supply over demand, which, is usually enough to drive a market but we have to add into this market the fact that it is full of hedge fund speculators (this is a news event on the horizon with losses) that quite frankly distort all parameters. Moving on…. This created the leap higher like a “pop-tart from your toaster” and the USD/CAD, looks like it is relentlessly heading towards 1.3000. Where is OIL going to find a bottom, probably sub $40.00, before it sees some support and value. The Canadian economy is not 100% reliant on Oil. It is not a 100% Oil based economy although it is hugely important, so much so that combined with the commodity sell-off it was enough to cause Stephen Poloz, Governor of the Bank of Canada, sufficient concern to cut the BOC overnight rate by 0.25%. This action further weakened the Canadian currency.

The knock on effect, Graeme Wheeler at the RBNZ took a more dovish stance in his recent monetary policy statement and the RBA meets this week, so all eyes will be on governor, Glenn Stevens to see what he does. Rumored rate cuts have been denied. But I strongly suspect a greater more accommodative statement at the very least this Tuesday (EDT).

It all leans towards a direction that we can trade. If you only trade the USD majors with the Central banks giving direction from the monetary policy statements, go with the flow.
<p style="text-align: center;">NZD/USD and AUD/USD – short
USD/CAD - long</p>
I have written extensively over the past 12 months about the effects of the Central Banks on the Forex Market (I wrote a huge piece last week on this subject).

If you are a trader that doesn’t mind a little more risk and greater volatility, you can also look at trading the commodity currency cross-rates.
<p style="text-align: center;">EUR/AUD, GBP/AUD, EUR/NZD, GBP/NZD, EUR/CAD and GBP/CAD</p>
There are more pairs involving the AUD and CHF, but the ones above are the main ones. Moves with these pairs have been particularly strong to the upside, as the commodity currencies have weakened. Personally, through the PREMIUM SERVICE I have been trading mainly the GBP related pairs due to the on-going EUROZONE situation casting a cloud over my desire to trade the EUR anything to the long side.

For the foreseeable future commodity pairs and commodity crosses should be, in my opinion, the cornerstone, of your Forex trading strategy.

(In using the word cornerstone, I realize this was used by the SNB 48 hours prior to the peg removal, when confirming to the media “the EUR/CHF Peg was the cornerstone of the SNB monetary policy”….it is a great word!!!)

The commodity crosses are rallying when equities are consolidating and moving upwards. Can you just imagine what would happen if equities start to pullback?

I took time out the other day for an hour or so and caught some CNBC, which has extensive coverage of the current earnings season. This will have a direct impact on the equity markets.

Here’s what is rolling around in my brain right now... this minute: - My God with 30 seconds of watching CNBC I was on the roof checking the tiles/shingles…

I heard so many companies lay the blame for poor quarterly earnings on the strength of the USD.

Let me just think….
<ul>
	<li>When the USD was weaker, there was no mention of the opposite tailwinds that a weaker USD offered … it was just like, “we are just brilliant managers in these desperate times”</li>
	<li>After the 2008-9 crash, U.S. companies to stay afloat, bolted down, cut out jobs to improve costs as demand for goods decreased so that they could continue to supply Wall Street with good earnings.</li>
	<li>As the economy improved, U.S. companies did not hire extra staff to cope with increased volumes… they kept wages low and they banked the extra cash that was generated.</li>
	<li>To satisfy Wall Street, using the cash on the balance sheet they started to buy back shares to improve the EPS (Earnings Per Share ratio) to satisfy investors and the Wall Street analysts. The analysts on Wall Street are generally so poor that no one ever really challenged the fact that the balance sheet top line of “Sales Income” hardly moved higher or in fact actually decreased. The EPS measurement was great though!!</li>
	<li>Last year the ever-supportive FED announced Tapering; QE would be brought to completion. The liquidity (printing presses) would be reduced month by month until zero and then the policy of low interest rates would change to a policy of raising interest rates. This meant a weak USD would, because of a change to increasing interest rates, become a strong USD. This was well advertised over 12 months ago.</li>
	<li>Oil has sold off by more than 50% of its early 2014 price per barrel. This effectively gives consumers an instant tax cut as the savings are there every time a fuel tank is filled. Businesses also benefit from lower Oil prices through lower production and transportation costs. Oil is directly linked to the USD as Oil is priced in dollars. As OIL decreases this helps strengthen the USD.</li>
</ul>
My thoughts now….
<ul>
	<li>The U.S. companies reporting weak earnings have in my opinion, been guilty of burying their heads in the sand. It is basic, pure and simple poor management.</li>
	<li>All of the above has been known about or started over a year ago. To use a strong USD as an excuse is pathetic. Yes it has an effect, but my God these people are paid to manage; in many cases they are just not good enough.</li>
	<li>Wages have not been increasing, the U.S. unemployment data accuracy is questionable, and there is little inflation in the world, more like DEFLATION.</li>
	<li>Commodity prices are continually heading lower; no one is buying finished goods, so why produce them? So commodity prices drop even more. It is a vicious circle.</li>
	<li>Consumers obviously do not feel confident to buy. It would appear that they are saving or paying down debt when the opportunity arises.</li>
	<li>The last set of U.S. data for retail sales was weak… It was the biggest sales quarter and it was poor data.</li>
</ul>
All of the above, business incompetence included leads to weaker commodities and weaker commodity currencies.

Eventually, the equity markets will smell the coffee. I do not have much faith in most U.S. businesses, as they appear to be as dysfunctional as Washington at times. They just want the FED to support them forever… infinity. What gets the U.S. economy moving in all forward gears is enough for another blog.

I have written so many times in the past, its all about commodities, commodities drive the markets and everything else follows, there may be a lag but the rest eventually follows.

Equities are at the precipice once again, should they rollover, in my opinion the commodity currencies are the trades to look at.

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<ol start="3">
	<li><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</span></strong></li>
</ol>
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">SUMMARY OF PERFORMANCE:</span></strong>

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">3.1 OVERVIEW:</span>

For new readers who may not be aware, I refer to the PREMIUM SERVICE quite a lot in this blog and for more details about what it is, and, how much it costs, you will need to go the welcome page of <a href="http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> At the top of the page there are three drop down menus: PREMIUM SERVICE, PROMOTIONS (if available), SIGN-UP and DISCLAIMER. Further details and how to join are all contained there. You will need at PayPal account to subscribe.

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">3.2 PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIPTION COSTS:</span>

Full details regarding the PREMIUM SERVICE can be found on my website <a href="http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>

On the welcome page there are a series of TABS at the top of the page that provide a summary of what the PREMIUM SERVICE is about and what you receive for your subscription.

THE 2015 SUBSCRIPTION BREAKDOWN IS AS FOLLOWS: -

10 weeks - $200.00
20 weeks - $350.00
40 weeks - $500.00

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<span style="text-decoration: underline;">3.3 TRADING REVIEW OF ACTIVITY and SUMMARY OF PERFORMANCE:</span>

Last week was for the PREMIUM SERVICE a great week. What began as a difficult month turned out to be a great month when all the statistics were collated? I wrote last week, that following events such as SNB Day, if you lost money, it’s all about the way you pick yourself up and move forward. As mentioned earlier, the commodity currencies and commodity cross-rate pairs saved the month.

If you look at the currency moves for the past month, using only the relationships between the G7 basket of currencies the CHF obviously on the back of SNB action was the strongest mover in January.

CHF    +75.56% - power of the SNB EUR/CHF Peg removal.

JPY     +32.55%

USD   +21.06% - FED policy / oil / help from ECB.

GBP    -3.89%

AUD    -16.49% - Commodity sell-off / China fears.

EUR   -29.10% - ECB QE policy announcement.

NZD    -33.79% - RBNZ more dovish stance / commodity sell-off / China fears.

CAD    -45.90% - weaker Oil / commodity sell off / BOC rate cut dovish stance.

(Source: Forex Live)

The PREMIUM SERVICE closed on 51 trades during the month of January 2015. 40 of those trades were profitable (78%) and 11 were loss-producing trades (22%).

The major aspect of trading that stands out, is that overall I never made a profit from my RADAR TRADES. The reason being trades from SNB day, created substantial pip losses from which I was never able to fully recover from.

I also cancelled more trades than ever last month, due to the increasing market volatility, which caused me huge issues at times, as I did not want to post potential higher risk trades to PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers.

<strong>Total pips generated in profitable trades this month: - 1,813 pips.</strong>

The income from trades was as follows: -

<strong>MICRO LOT TRADERS:                 51 trades cost $5.10 = return of $181.30.</strong>
<strong> MINI LOT TRADERS:                      51 trades cost $51.00 = return of $1,813.00.</strong>
<strong>STANDARD LOT TRADERS:         51 trades cost $510.00 = return of $18,130.00.           </strong>

Whilst these numbers represent a great return, they do not tell the full story. Position Sizing is a major consideration in volatile trading conditions.

It was in January easier to generate the pips than it was to bank the cash due to RISK MANAGEMENT. Compromise on POSITION SIZING was the order of the day to MANAGE RISK properly. Yes, you could make a return but the size of your broker account determined the return you could make due to RISK MANAGEMENT.

Let me elaborate a little further….

In January to keep “TRADES ALIVE” stop loss levels were a little wider than usual. Last year ATR’s (Average True Ranges) in may pairs shrank and a typical stop was set maybe 40-50 pips away from the entry level.

When suggesting trades this year, the ranges have increased a little as the volatility has also increased. This has meant that pivots and Fibonacci levels have been a little wider.

This is exacerbated with the exotic pairs, which were more volatile anyway because they see less flow and are more illiquid. This means that a previous 400 pip stop on a longer-term exotic pair may now be 500-600 pips and wider if I see the trade as a FUNDAMENTAL TRADE set-up. The wider the stop, the greater the risk, to me says take a smaller position size. When trading exotics I would always recommend taking at least only 25% of what you would usually trade as your maximum position size anyway.

The mix of trade-set ups is also interesting between USD majors and the rest.

The bottom line is that for most traders unless you manage your position sizes correctly you are limited to the number of live trades that you should take on board using RISK EXPOSURE.

Let me provide an example based on a STANDARD LOT trader with a typical $100,000.00 balance in his broker account. To keep this simple I am only looking at the position of the STOP in number of pips away from the entry level.

TRADE SET-UPS suggested from the PREMIUM SERVICE:
(All trades are assumed to be single lot trades at a value of $10.00 each trade)
(My trade limit RISK per trade is 0.5%)
(Total “LIVE” RISK should be no more than 3%)
<ol>
	<li>EUR/USD: Entry at 1.1360 Stop at 1.1450 – RISK = 90 x $10 - $900.00</li>
	<li>EUR/GBP: Entry at 0.7550 Stop at 0.7620 – RISK = 65 x $10 - $650.00</li>
	<li>NZD/USD: Entry at 0.7295 Stop at 0.7340 – RISK = 45 X $10 - $450.00</li>
	<li>GBP/AUD: Entry at 1.8700 Stop at 1.8340 – RISK = 360 x $10 = $3,600.00</li>
	<li>GBP/CAD: Entry at 1.8730 Stop at 1.8250 – RISK = 480 x $10 = $4,800.00</li>
	<li>GBP/NZD: Entry at 2.0540 Stop at 1.9850 – RISK = 690 x $10 = $6,900.00
(At one stage in January the PREMIUM SERVICE was LIVE with 9 trades)</li>
</ol>
As the above trades stand – in order to trade them all with 1 x STANDARD LOT the risk on entering the trades totals $ 17,300.00, which is 17% of your trading account. Quite frankly, if anyone trades this way they deserve all that the market dishes out. The maximum RISK on a $100,000.00 broker account in my opinion should not be more than 3%, which is $3,000 and this should be limited to 0.5% per trade.

The easy calculation to do is as follows (this can be drilled down to all sizes of accounts): -

$100,000.00 in your trading account 0.5% = $500.00 maximum risk per trade.
$100,000.00 in your trading account 3.0% total risk = $3,000.00. Therefore it is six trades maximum at $500 risk per trade. This is the simplest way, in my opinion to trade.

Therefore, as you can see even with a $100,000.00 Forex broker trading account, from my RISK PER TRADE standards within my TRADING PLAN, I could not have traded all the LIVE TRADES at once via STANDARD LOTS. A mixture of STANDARD and MINI lot trading was required. Only accounts with a minimum of at least $600,000.00 in my opinion could have traded the 1 x STANDARD LOT approach.

You have to be flexible, there are articles in the EDUCATION section of the PREMIUM SERVICE website for subscribers that refer to POSITION SIZING. This year so far trading ranges and stop placements are wider than 2014, it is different, but the principles are the same.

As I have written in the past, if you approach each trade based on the RISK, there is money to be made in the Forex Market.

POSITION SIZING is absolutely critical your success. Failure here will blow your accounts apart.

As a subscriber to the PREMIUM SERVICE you can make money from the Forex Market but you have to be disciplined.

The usual summary charts detailing the week and year to date performances, are below: -

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">3.3.1. – PREMIUM SERVICE PROFIT/LOSS RATIOS:</span>

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<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/PS-PROFIT-LOSS-RATIOS-JAN15.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-5214" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/PS-PROFIT-LOSS-RATIOS-JAN15.png" alt="PS PROFIT-LOSS RATIOS JAN15" width="414" height="584" /></a>

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">3.3.2. – PREMIUM SERVICE RISK/REWARD ANALYSIS:</span>

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/PS-RISK-REWARD-JAN15.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-5215" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/PS-RISK-REWARD-JAN15.png" alt="PS RISK-REWARD JAN15" width="418" height="546" /></a>

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">3.3.3. – FLASH TRADES: TRADE BY TRADE (JANUARY 2015):</span>

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<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/FLASH1-JAN15.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-5216" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/FLASH1-JAN15.png" alt="FLASH1 JAN15" width="497" height="481" /></a>

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<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/FLASH2-JAN15.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-5217" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/FLASH2-JAN15.png" alt="FLASH2 JAN15" width="520" height="490" /></a>

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<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/FLASH-YTD-JAN15.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-5218" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/FLASH-YTD-JAN15.png" alt="FLASH YTD JAN15" width="338" height="386" /></a>

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">3.3.4. – RADAR TRADES: TRADE BY TRADE (JANUARY 2015):</span>

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<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/RADAR1-JAN15.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-5219" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/RADAR1-JAN15.png" alt="RADAR1 JAN15" width="553" height="481" /></a>

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<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/RADAR2-JAN15.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-5220" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/RADAR2-JAN15.png" alt="RADAR2 JAN15" width="548" height="488" /></a>

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<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/RADAR-YTD-JAN15.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-5221" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/RADAR-YTD-JAN15.png" alt="RADAR YTD JAN15" width="353" height="386" /></a>

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<span style="text-decoration: underline;">3.3.5. – FUNDAMENTAL TRADES: TRADE BY TRADE (JANUARY 2015):</span>

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<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/FUNDAMENTAL-JAN15.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-5222" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/FUNDAMENTAL-JAN15.png" alt="FUNDAMENTAL JAN15" width="507" height="520" /></a>

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<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/FUNDAMENTAL-YTD-JAN15.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-5223" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/FUNDAMENTAL-YTD-JAN15.png" alt="FUNDAMENTAL YTD JAN15" width="363" height="370" /></a>

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<span style="text-decoration: underline;">3.3.6. – PREMIUM SERVICE OVERALL TRADE SUMMARY MONTH &amp; YTD:</span>

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/PREM-SERV-PROFITS1-JAN15.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-5212" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/PREM-SERV-PROFITS1-JAN15.png" alt="PREM SERV PROFITS1 JAN15" width="458" height="434" /></a>

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<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/PREM-SERV-PROFITS2-JAN15.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-5213" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/PREM-SERV-PROFITS2-JAN15.png" alt="PREM SERV PROFITS2 JAN15" width="451" height="428" /></a>

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<ol start="4">
	<li><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBER EXCLUSIVE CONTENT:</span></strong></li>
</ol>
(Section 4 is exclusive PREMIUM SERVICE content only available to PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers)

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">4.1 EDUCATION:</span>

I apologize; there is no article ready this week.

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<span style="text-decoration: underline;">4.2 THE PREMIUM SERVICE - EXISTING LIVE TRADES:</span>

Below is the current spread sheet showing the existing live trades.

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/PS-LIVE-TRADES-01022015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-5225" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/PS-LIVE-TRADES-01022015.png" alt="PS LIVE TRADES 01022015" width="701" height="479" /></a>

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">4.3 THE PREMIUM SERVICE - TRADES THAT ARE ON MY RADAR:</span>

On Friday I cancelled all the outstanding LIMIT ORDERS as I was away from my desk in Ottawa for a meeting.

The excel spreadsheet below shows multiple trades based on the weeks closing prices looking at LIMIT ORDER entries this week. They do not have reference numbers yet as NONE of them are placed with my brokers yet. As soon as I have them placed, an email and twitter alert (with chart, where applicable) will be posted for you.

I have already mentioned in this blog that I see commodity currencies and commodity crosses being the focus of FX trading moving forward. It should therefore come as no surprise that given the volume of high beta news events on the horizon this week commodity related pairs feature extensively.

Below the spreadsheet you will see a series of charts relating the trades in the spreadsheet. There are comments on the charts that will be repeated on the EMAIL ALERT that will be produced if I go ahead and suggest the trade be taken.

My initial thoughts are based around the following pairs:

GBP/USD and NZD/USD to the short side.

USD/CAD, USD/CHF, GBP/CAD and GBP/NZD to the long side.

I want to see what the RBA says on Monday before looking to the AUD/USD and GBP/AUD plus any other AUD related pairs.

I am also looking at the AUD/JPY with more seriousness than usual. As you know, this pair basically correlates most of the time to the moves in the S &amp; P index. It has been divergent from time to time of late, and this has generally been the reason behind me NOT taking the JPY pairs serious. However, I do see that value in U.S. equities is becoming harder and harder to find and therefore, when a pullback happens this pair should fall in line again with the S &amp; P and a short side trade would be FUNDAMENTALLY perfect. Should Glenn Stevens become more accommodative and dovish tomorrow night (EDT) when the RBA statement is released, this will cement this short side trade even further.

Additionally, I am looking at the NOK. I know many of you find the “Nordic” currencies painful to trade, as they are low pip value and very fast movers. But the NOK and MXN against the USD could be nice long trades if oil drops below $40. A leg lower next week with oil prices and these pairs could offer a nice quick return.

I am still very bearish and hold EUR/USD and EUR/GBP short trades. I will add to these trades should we head lower towards the recent trend lows. I am conscious of bounces with the single currency; there are so many factors that can cause this which are mainly driven by the personalities involved in the EUROZONE and not the economic data. In the main the economic data is still concerning. Mild data looks to be bouncing on the bottom but the biggie is still DEFLATION. I have been harping on about this for months and feck all has really been done apart from jawboning.

DEFLATION is a worldwide concern, especially USA, EUROZONE and JAPAN. FUNDAMENTALLY; GOLD should be on its knees begging for mercy at $700.00 or so. It is being bought up; to prop up the industry but this cannot continue forever. GOLD should be lower, based on FUNDAMENTALS, which should keep the USD strong. At some stage and I believe sooner rather than later a “SNB” event with GOLD is going to happen. This event will re-balance the whole financial services market, as we know it. It will make “SNB Day” look like a stroll in the park. Hence, the reason that GOLD is being so heavily supported…. in my opinion! From a trading perspective though, this FUNDAMENTALLY keeps me long the USD.

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/PS-TRADES-ON-MY-RADAR-01022015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-5227" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/PS-TRADES-ON-MY-RADAR-01022015.png" alt="PS TRADES ON MY RADAR 01022015" width="707" height="399" /></a>

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<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/GBPUSD-240M-01022015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-5231" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/GBPUSD-240M-01022015-1024x479.png" alt="GBPUSD 240M 01022015" width="1024" height="479" /></a>

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<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/NZDUSD-MONTHLY-01022015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-5230" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/NZDUSD-MONTHLY-01022015-1024x479.png" alt="NZDUSD MONTHLY 01022015" width="1024" height="479" /></a>

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<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/USDCAD-240-M-01022015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-5229" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/USDCAD-240-M-01022015-1024x479.png" alt="USDCAD 240 M 01022015" width="1024" height="479" /></a>

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<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/USDCHF-60-MINUTE-02012015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-5228" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/USDCHF-60-MINUTE-02012015-1024x479.png" alt="USDCHF 60 MINUTE 02012015" width="1024" height="479" /></a>

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<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/GBPCAD-MONTHLY-01022015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-5233" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/GBPCAD-MONTHLY-01022015-1024x479.png" alt="GBPCAD MONTHLY 01022015" width="1024" height="479" /></a>

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<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/GBPNZD-WEEKLY-01022015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-5232" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/GBPNZD-WEEKLY-01022015-1024x479.png" alt="GBPNZD WEEKLY 01022015" width="1024" height="479" /></a>

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<span style="text-decoration: underline;">4.4 MAJOR TRADING PAIRS WITH LONGER-TERM TRENDS MATCHING:</span>

The following currency pairs have Short Term (DAILY), Medium Term (WEEKLY) and Long Term (MONTHLY) charts all trending in the same direction.

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/PS-TRENDING-PAIRS-01022015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-5224" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/PS-TRENDING-PAIRS-01022015.png" alt="PS TRENDING PAIRS 01022015" width="416" height="546" /></a>

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<span style="text-decoration: underline;">4.5 THE KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS</span><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">:
</span></strong>(This content is now for PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers only, it allows me to refer to existing and future set-ups that form part of the PREMIUM SERVICE subscription)

<strong>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.1280.</strong> We have had a little bounce with the EUR/USD, which was expected after the huge sell-off. I have held a short position for a few days now expecting a return lower with the overall bearish trend. Once again on Friday last week, Greece was in the news about non- compliance / negotiation with Troika and on the back of this the EUR/USD came under pressure. Something is going on with Russia. Cyprus and Greece are very close, geographically, historically and population wise, the Russians were financially all over Cyprus…I get a connection / smell a rat. Support is 1.1250 initially and resistance is good at 1.1440.

<strong>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.5049</strong>. 1.5000 held again on Friday, this would appear to be the support level to break to head lower to 1.4950 and then 1.4870.Resistance is good at 1.5120. I am just not 100% certain which direction to trade the cable. Up until Friday last week it had been range bound trapped between 1.5000 and 1.5100, with attempts to break higher. This action was keeping all the GBP commodity crosses in play as the AUD and NZD currencies weakened. I want this to remain the case this week and beyond, in fact, I also want equities to rollover lower so that RISK OFF trades are back in vogue. My bias is shorting the cable in sympathy with the EUR. In addition some nice USD strength would also help my FUNDAMENTAL views.

<strong>AUD/USD: Closing Price 0.7753</strong>. A nice drop of over 100 pips in the past 7 days trading, and, the fun continues as it is a big night tomorrow (Monday EDT) with the interest rate statement. There were rumours of a rate cut on the back of the BOC surprise rate cut last week. These have been denied, so it could be a jawboning exercise and a change in the vocabulary in the policy statement that has an effect on the AUD currency. I am expecting a hold on interest rate rises and a very compliant, dovish statement. We are trading in a nice trading range at the moment of 0.7720 to 0.7820.

<strong>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.7240</strong>. The RBNZ turned dovish last week. The double top pattern on the weekly chart is now in play and we are targeting lows in a measured move of around 0.6000. Happy days and drinks all round if this move plays out. The next support from existing levels is at 0.7230 then at 0.7070 and resistance is at 0.7310.

<strong>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.2729.</strong> This pair is in a very bullish trend. I think we are on our way to 1.3000. Support is at 1.2620 and resistance after 1.2700 is at 1.2790. As long as the price of oil remains heavy the CAD currency should weaken overall. Personally, I think that Oil will eventually find a bottom but I think that it will have to get to maybe the mid $30’s a barrel first.

<strong>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.9180</strong>. We are starting to see patterns and moves on the charts again. Many brokers have tightened up on trading CHF pairs, although there looks to be opportunities coming up. I am looking at 0.9160 offering some support and 0.9300 is the next resistance.

<strong>USD/JPY: Closing Price 117.47. </strong> The JPY is still rangey and I still think prime for a big move. The range is 116.50 to 118.50.

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<ol start="5">
	<li><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"> THE WEEK AHEAD: -
WHAT AM I THINKING &amp; WHAT AM I LOOKING AT?</span></strong></li>
</ol>
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<span style="text-decoration: underline;">5.1 SUBSCRIBING TO THE “FREE VERSION” OF THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU:</span>

If you like what you have almost completed reading and want to have THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU delivered direct to your email inbox next week, here is what you do: -

Go to my website: - <a href="http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>

On the right hand side of the welcome page under my bio “about me” there is a blue box titled SUBSCRIBE TO FREE NEWSLETTER, click on profile and add your email address. It is as simple and straightforward as that.

I do NOT sell your email data to anyone…do not worry.

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<span style="text-decoration: underline;">5.2 MAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:</span>

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SUNDAY: CNY – HSBC Final Manufacturing PMi

MONDAY: GBP – Manufacturing PMi.
MONDAY: USD – ISM Manufacturing PMi.
MONDAY: AUD – Trade Balance.
<span style="line-height: 1.5;">MONDAY: AUD – RBA Rate Statement.</span>

TUESDAY: GBP – Construction PMi.

TUESDAY: NZD – Unemployment Data and GDT index.
TUESDAY: NZD – RBNZ Governor Wheeler Speaks.

WEDNESDAY: GBP – Services PMi.
WEDNESDAY: USD – ADP Non-Farm Employment Change.
WEDNESDAY: CAD – IVEY PMi.
WEDNESDAY: USD – ISM non-Manufacturing PMi.
WEDNESDAY: AUD – Retail Sales.

THURSDAY: GBP – BOE Bank Rate and maybe a MPC Rate Statement.
THURSDAY: CAD – Trade Balance.
THURSDAY: USD – Trade Balance.
THURSDAY: AUD – RBA Monetary Policy Statement.

FRIDAY: CAD – Unemployment Data.
FRIDAY: USD – Non-Farm Employment Data and Unemployment Rate.

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<span style="text-decoration: underline;">5.3 FINAL THOUGHTS / CLOSING COMMENTS:</span>

This is a very big week on news.

Whilst there will be trades to trade and there will be some great opportunities, please trade in line with your RISK MANAGEMENT parameters from your TRADING PLAN. If you do not have a TRADE PLAN, in my opinion, you should, as this will help you with consistency.
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>Consistency = longevity in trading and that is a critical goal.
IT IS THE KEY MEASUREMENT</strong></p>
Before you enter a trade work out the risk, price it in $$$. Place your stop accordingly. PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers have a full library of information on RISK MANAGEMENT, RISK TOLERANCES and POSITION SIZING etc. available for reference 24x7.

Take care.

Scott Pickering
The Pip Accumulator
Sunday February 1st 2015

EMAIL / FOLLOW ME AT:
premiumservice@weeklyfxdrivethru.com
Twitter: @pipaccumulator
Twitter: @ThePremService
<span style="line-height: 1.5;">Google+/scottpickering
</span>Tumblr: thepipaccumulator

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FLASH, RADAR and FUNDAMENTAL trade set-ups, “Tweets” and “Trade ideas” that are posted in my blogs or on Twitter are trades and set-ups that interest me. They are provided for training and informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as an offer, solicitation or recommendation of any specific security or investment strategy. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading Forex carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade any such leveraged products you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin, and seek advice from an independent financial adviser if you have any doubts.