Good Day,

Firstly, I welcome the new subscribers from over the past couple of days.

I just responded to an email from Raul (Brasil), over reducing risk even when I am within (well within in many trades) my RISK TOLERANCE / PARAMETERS. This weeks economic calendar is just crazy. The RBA, lots of PMi data, ECB Press Conference and the U.S. Jobs report to name but a few. Over the next 48 hours, I will be positioning myself as best I can to only have trades in play that are either not affected by the news, i.e non specific cross-rates, or  trades that I fundamentally want to keep live at the moment but I will be moves up stops or protecting some profits. 90% of the time trades in profit I will exit. I can always re-enter again should the situation drive me.

OVERVIEW:

A great deal can happen this week in currencies and it will mostly be dominated by the usual suspects: USD/JPY and EUR/USD.

The EUR/USD will have the volatility but it also dangerous to trade. My bias is still bearish as we broke lower out of an ascending wedge on the DAILY chart. We are shortly about to test the 200 DAY SMA and it looks like horizontal support at 1.3670. If we break higher above these levels, we set up a great short opportunity as it heads towards 1.3725-50. I will be looking to enter short up at these levels. With month, quarter and half year ends today, do not rule our U.S. 10 Year yields maybe rising. This would support USD strength. Over the past while yields have been falling and this had kept the USD under control and weak.