<strong>THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU
“THE PREMIUM SERVICE”</strong>

<strong>The Home of Single-Lot Trading
www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</strong>

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<ol>
	<li><strong> INTRODUCTION – THE VIEW FROM MY TRADE DESK:</strong></li>
</ol>
LOOKING BACKWARDS, FORWARDS &amp; SIDEWAYS (FOR GOOD MEASURE) AT THE FX MARKET:

1.1: LOOKING BACKWARDS:

I want to start this blog by saying that I feel as if I am staring alongside Bill Murray in Groundhog Day. For the past five/six weeks every late evening, early morning and start of the North American session I have been looking at charts over and over again saying repeatedly to myself “Don’t be stupid”, “Wait for the dust to settle”, “This weekend is the deadline” and “Everything will be much clearer next week regardless of what the EUROZONE does with GREECE”. I am still in this damn movie!!

What I find totally frustrating is that the markets in my opinion are just 110% complacent with what is going on. We are facing a real watershed in EUROPEAN politics and more importantly the future direction of the EUROZONE with the GREECE situation. I am just gob-smacked that the markets are acting as if they have just visited a Colorado recreational pot shop and are just laying back in the tall grass counting pink flying pigs cruising overhead. I find it totally bizarre. I am originally from Liverpool… nothing phases me, when you’ve grown up and lived in Liverpool you learn a lot about life and believe me it's a great schooling.

Frankly, I think no matter what the outcome tomorrow or Sunday, or whenever the next GREECE deadline is, we are once again buying the rumour and we will sell the news. Nothing about the GREECE settlement is EUR positive in my opinion; sure, we may a see a short rally. It will be sold into, let the EUR/USD push to 1.1500 and the EUR/GBP to 0.7350-0.7400… I will be waiting to short these.

What was the point of the referendum? – read my thoughts later in this blog.

Moving on, now I have that rant off my chest, what else has been going on?

CHINA… Holy Mother of God…. Several weeks ago I wrote about the fact that, the general population was opening broker accounts in CHINA in the hundreds of thousands a week, as the Chinese authorities were opening up their markets. Quelle surprise this is going belly up. The closed style of CHINA has come to the forefront once again. About 50% of Chinese companies had their stock frozen for days so as not to have millions written off their valuations as panic selling was stepping in. To stop this the Chinese government took restrictive action not allowing sales of shares for I think in most cases 6 months after purchase plus a few other free market restrictive measures.

CHINA wants a free and open market Chinese style, and certainly one that is not the style we in the west are accustomed to. Manipulation is the name of the Chinese game. This is why I do not believe most economic statistics provided by the Chinese government. They tell you what they think you want to hear, regardless of the accuracy.

Right now, CHINA poses a real threat to market stability and I think that we have some very interesting twists and turns ahead. The recent mad upturn in the Chinese and Hong Kong equities markets will have sellers looking to exit whatever they can into strength and balance RISK.

Last week we also had the FOMC meeting minutes released. When these are released to the markets they are three/four weeks in arrears and frankly yesterdays news. This release was largely ignored as GREEK and CHINESE news was dominating trader’s thoughts not what Janet Yellen and her cohorts had discussed over a good bottle of claret accompanied with cheese and crackers.

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1.2: LOOKING FORWARDS:

MAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:

(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to <a href="http://www.forexfactory.com">www.forexfactory.com</a> and <a href="http://www.tradingeconomics.com">www.tradingeconomics.com</a> for more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).
SUNDAY: EUR – Eurogroup Meeting.

MONDAY: AUD – NAB Business Confidence.

TUESDAY: USD – Retail and Core Retail Sales.
TUESDAY: CNY – GDP.
WEDNESDAY: CAD – BOC Rate Statement and Monetary Policy Report.
WEDNESDAY: CAD – BOC Governor Stephen Poloz “Words of wisdom”.
WEDNESDAY: USD – Janet Yellen testifies to “the hill” with words of wisdom.
WEDNESDAY: NZD – Dairy Auction Prices.
WEDNESDAY: NZD – CPi.

THURSDAY: EUR – Press Conference with Mario Draghi’s words of wisdom.
THURSDAY: USD – Janet Yellen testifies again…more words of wisdom.
FRIDAY: CAD – Core CPi.
FRIDAY: USD – CPi and Core CPi.

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MY THOUGHTS ON THE NEWS ITEMS THIS COMING WEEK:

Apart from GREECE dominating the news I am looking forward to the BOC on Wednesday. Do not be surprised if there is a rate cut. Things are not as rosy as the markets would have you believe here in Canada. Nationally, the economy needs a push and whilst I look at Poloz as being behind the curve with most views, he stunned the market with a cut a few months ago. Do not rule out another cut.

With regards to the FED, I am getting bored with the dwarf’s comments, she just keeps repeating the same old same old stuff over and over again. Are the market makers really that stupid that they cannot understand they need Yellen on repeat every time she speaks?

Data dependent...I’ve got it.

Rate hike this year… got it.

Look at the dots… got it.

Geopolitical news is mostly transitory… received loud and clear.

Will someone please tell CNBC? I now have to be out of bed just before 0600 at the latest before Joe “where am I, I’d rather play golf, I checked out years ago Kernan hits the TV screens. Can CNBC please change the record and approach these news items a little more head on and stop bringing in the same old flutes week after week to give opinions and buy/sell ideas without follow up… it is so 1960’s TV. My God another soapbox this week….

Mario Draghi steps up dressed in his finest Italian suit once more to deliver his views on the EUROZONE economy. Read the following in an Italian accent…”I will be supporting the EUROZONE will low interest rates and probably more QE for a longer period, in fact, it will be such a long period in time I will be dead and buried before its fixed, in fact, everyone in this room will be dead and buried and pushing up daisies before I see a rise in interest rates happening”….next question”

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1.3: LOOKING SIDEWAYS (FOR GOOD MEASURE):

Now is the time in my opinion to really manage your broker accounts.

We are about to enter the summer doldrums, I know that there are geopolitical issues hanging around: -
<ul>
	<li>GREECE</li>
	<li>CHINA</li>
	<li>IRAN</li>
	<li>ISIL</li>
</ul>
As traders take their annual vacations the liquidity of the markets will dry up and we usually enter a period of false breakouts and false breakdowns and range trading becomes the order of day. There is only two more WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU’s left until I take a five/six week break from trading and writing. I am moving home so I am pleased about that.

The summer can kill you as a trader because you try to force trades that really aren’t there. You let your guard down and accept poorer set ups. Everyone needs to re-charge his or her batteries. I am suggesting that whilst the markets are slow this is an ideal time to step back and maybe try out dummy trades with new ideas.

Capital preservation is paramount to longevity in trading; it would be a shame to blow away six/seven months of good work in a slow market period.

I will trade my FUNDAMENTAL TRADES and I will continue to sporadically advise PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers of progress / thoughts / ideas but I will not be at my computer screens for hours on end.

Think about it.

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<ol start="2">
	<li><strong> WHAT’S ON MY MIND: -
THE FUNDAMENTAL TRADERS OVERVIEW:</strong></li>
</ol>
<strong>WHAT WAS THE POINT OF THE GREECE REFERENDUM?</strong>

Have I missed something?

What was the point of Tsipras walking away from the negotiation table just over a week ago to come back after a referendum (badly worded) to basically walk back into the EUROGROUP with what amounts to basically the same deal that he rejected but with him allegedly giving more concessions on pension and tax reforms?

I think that Tsipras believed that after he had won his NO VOTE the EUROGROUP would see that he had a fresh mandate from the Greek people and as a result would be more amenable to debt relief. In this high stakes poker game I doubt he thought he would come back to Brussels and run into a brick wall. Tsipras was poorly advised. The EUROGROUP is made up of politicians and just like himself; they also have a popular vote and re-election to consider.

Now I do believe that no EUROGROUP politician, Merkel included, wants to be written in the history books as the politician that brought about the downfall of the single currency. Therefore I think that the usual EUROZONE can –kicking settlement / compromise will take place and that Tsipras will be praying that he is NOT re-elected next time around so that when the then Greek government returns for bailout IV in a couple of years the reigning Prime Minister of Greece will blame the Syriza party and Tsipras for the mess.

As I have written many, many times before politicians blame people, in particular other politicians, they do NOT problem solve or fix things. Therefore be prepared for a can-kicking solution covered in duct tape and Elastoplast and get ready for the market reaction, which I believe after the initial relief rally will be a sell-off, with the EUR/USD heading to sub parity.

Merkel has no option but to extend facilities, she cannot offer debt relief other than in a token gesture amount, if at all, as she will lose her political status back in Germany. Her powerbase is somewhat tenuous right now and signs of weakness with a GREECE deal, which, the majority of Germans couldn’t give a rats ass about anyway, would severely reduce her chances of victory at the next German general election.

Hollande on the other hand is a suicide mission anyway, in my opinion, he can say what he wants but the chances of his re-election next time around are pretty remote. There is more chance of Cameron Diaz moving in next-door and knocking on my front door asking to borrow a bowl of sugar.

So, Tsipras was badly advised, the EUROGROUP knocked him back and Tsipras has caved in because despite all my thoughts he does NOT have a plan B. If he had a plan B now is the time to play it. Leave the single currency, parallel currency with the Drachma until the single currency is out of circulation and re-value. A GREXIT… DEFAULT is the way to fix the GREECE problem. Now we are once again into can-kicking.

In life and especially in business you always need an alternative. For Tsipras to go back drop his trousers and bend over the desk in front of the EUROGROUP is so not the GREECE way of doing things, it makes no sense to me at all. He obviously thought 100% that he would gain significant concessions.

Maybe he was set up?

In any event, whether he was or wasn't set up, we now enter what we are told is the weekend of decision. It would not surprise me if we extend again with a fudge for a few months with the ECB supporting the run on the Greek banks. It makes no sense to me, the economy trying to survive the past six months of negotiations between Athens and Brussels has just slipped further and further into recession. Any financial whiz kid who can predict growth in the Greek economy moving forward is in cloud cuckoo land.

We have years of turmoil ahead unless GREECE exits in my opinion. How in the name of sanity can they payback an increased debt?
<ul>
	<li>POLITICAL INSTABILITY</li>
	<li>MARKETS UNCERTAINTY</li>
	<li>FINANCIAL MARKETS IN EUROPE IN TURMOIL</li>
	<li>THE CONTAGION EFFECT</li>
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The above represents what I believe we will have in the EUROZONE for years ahead, I just cannot see why the EUROZONE will not just swing from one disaster / problem to the next.

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<ol start="3">
	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:

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<strong>SUMMARY OF PERFORMANCE:</strong>

3.1: OVERVIEW - SUBSCRIPTION OPTIONS, FEATURES and PRICING:

For new readers who may not be aware, I refer to the PREMIUM SERVICE quite a lot in this blog and for more details about what it is, and, how much it costs, you will need to go the welcome page of <a href="http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>

At the top of my welcome page there are three drop down menus: -

PREMIUM SERVICE PROMOTIONS (if available)
SIGN-UP
DISCLAIMER

Further details and how to join are all contained there. You will need a PayPal account to subscribe.

Below I provide an overview of the GOLD and SILVER subscription options and pricing.

GOLD MEMBER SUBSCRIPTION FEATURES &amp; PRICING OPTIONS:
<ul>
	<li>3 options on subscription periods.</li>
	<li>100% access to the PREMIUM SERVICE area of my website <a href="http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com">weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a></li>
	<li>A dedicated exclusive twitter feed for GOLD MEMBER subscribers only @ThePremService.</li>
	<li>All trade set-ups communicated via Twitter and RADAR and FUNDAMENTAL trades additionally via email when possible.</li>
	<li>The full and complete version of The WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU delivered weekly via an emailed PDF, and, viewable on line inside the PREMIUM SERVICE secure section of <a href="http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com">weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a></li>
	<li>My thoughts and comments on market conditions via twitter and/or email.</li>
</ul>
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<ul>
	<li>GOLD MEMBER SUBSCRIPTION OPTION PRICING:
(Please note that PayPal works in months NOT weeks)
10 weeks / 3 months:               USD $295.00
20 weeks / 6 months:               USD $495.00
40 weeks / 12 months:             USD $795.00</li>
</ul>
SILVER MEMBER SUBSCRIPTION FEATURES &amp; PRICING OPTIONS:
<ul>
	<li>Simple 4 weekly (monthly) membership pricing.</li>
	<li>A dedicated exclusive twitter feed for SILVER MEMBER subscribers only @PremServSilver.</li>
	<li>All my trade set-ups delivered to you via the SILVER MEMBER subscriber twitter feed @PremServSilver.</li>
	<li>Access to the PREMIUM SERVICE website (relevant trade information only).</li>
	<li>The “FREE NEWSLETTER” version of THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU delivered weekly direct to you email inbox and viewable online at <a href="http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com">weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a></li>
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SILVER MEMBER SUBSCRIPTION OPTION PRICING:
(Please note that PayPal works in months NOT weeks)

4 weeks / 1 month:                    USD $100.00

<u>PLEASE NOTE:</u>

During the summer from July 25<sup>th</sup> through to September 5<sup>th</sup> 2015, there will not be any WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU blogs and PREMIUM SERVICE trading will be minimal due to slow markets. Subscribers will still be advised of trades, if any, but typically there are very few. Subscription periods DO NOT count the weeks when there is no blog.

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3.2: PERFORMANCE REVIEWS:

PREMIUM SERVICE – COST INCOME ANALYSIS (USD):

EMANATING FROM TRADE SET-UPS – to 30<sup>th</sup> June 2015.

MICRO LOT TRADER - 437 trades cost to trade = $43.70
<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 437 trades = <strong>$628.70</strong>

MINI LOT TRADER - 437 trades cost to trade = $437.00
<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 437 trades = <strong>$6,287.00</strong>

STANDARD LOT TRADER - 437 trades cost to trade = $4,370.00
<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 437 trades = <strong>$62,870.00</strong>
<p style="text-align: center;">If the above return from Forex Trading interests you go to</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> and check out the subscription options under the tab “PREMIUM SERVICE”.</p>
<p style="text-align: center;">The performance above is based off single-lot trade sizes.</p>
<p style="text-align: center;">THE PREMIUM SERVICE has subscribers with broker accounts of sizes ranging from $2,500 to over $100,000.</p>
<p style="text-align: center;">A profitable trade is a profitable trade. It is all about trading according to the size of your broker account (EFFECTIVE POSITION SIZING) and applying RISK MANAGEMENT principles at all times.</p>
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3.3: PREMIUM SERVICE - TRADE SUMMARY DETAILS JUNE 2015 &amp; YTD:

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<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/PS-PROFITS1-10072015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-6268" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/PS-PROFITS1-10072015.png" alt="PS PROFITS1 10072015" width="455" height="425" /></a>

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<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/PSPROFITS2-10072015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-6269" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/PSPROFITS2-10072015.png" alt="PSPROFITS2 10072015" width="465" height="437" /></a>
<ol start="4">
	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBER EXCLUSIVE CONTENT:</strong></li>
</ol>
(Section 4 is exclusive PREMIUM SERVICE content only available to PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers)

4.1: EDUCATION:<u>
</u>(The full list of all items and more from this section can be found in the PREMIUM SERVICE website in the Trade Essential area under the EDUCATION tab.

4.2: THE PREMIUM SERVICE – TRADING REVIEW &amp; LOOKING FORWARD:

4.3: THE PREMIUM SERVICE - EXISTING LIVE TRADES:

4.4: THE PREMIUM SERVICE – EXISTING LIMIT ORDERS:<u> </u>

4.5: ARMEGEDDON “GOLDEN” TRADES:

4.6: POTENTIAL TRADES - WHAT CHARTS AM I LOOKING AT?

4.7: MAJOR TRADING PAIRS WITH LONGER-TERM MATCHING TRENDS:

4.8: THE KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS<strong>:<u>

</u></strong>
<ol start="5">
	<li><strong> MY FINAL THOUGHTS:</strong></li>
</ol>
5.1: SUBSCRIBING TO THE “FREE VERSION” OF THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU:

If you like what you have almost completed reading and want to have THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU delivered direct to your email inbox next week, here is what you do: -

Go to my website: - <a href="http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>

On the right hand side of the welcome page under my bio “about me” there is a blue box titled SUBSCRIBE TO FREE NEWSLETTER, click on profile and add your email address. It is as simple and straightforward as that.

I do NOT sell your email data to anyone…do not worry...one less thing to worry about!

If you really like my way of explaining things…subscribe to either the PREMIUM SERVICE SILVER or GOLD by visiting my website <a href="http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>

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5.2: TRADING TIPS &amp; THOUGHTS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD:

I could just cut and paste my comments from last week. Nothing has altered in my eyes except that we have a serious situation brewing in CHINA, which will create havoc after the summer break when greater attention will be directed. I am not sure how the FED will react to the CHINA news. No doubt Yellen will remain cautious and dovish no matter what happens.

This may be the time if you are relatively new to trading to maybe hold back a little, maybe not even trade at all into the GREECE news. Mainly, I would avoid the main European currencies EUR, GBP and CHF.

There is always a risk with Forex but trading non-European based currencies should be a little less risky than say the EUR.

As always, with high-risk news on the imminent horizon it is now in my mind, even more important to stick to core trading principles.

<strong>Consistency = longevity in trading and that is a critical goal.
IT IS THE KEY MEASUREMENT</strong>

Before you enter a trade work out the risk, price it in $$$. Place your stop accordingly. PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers have a full library of information on RISK MANAGEMENT, RISK TOLERANCES and POSITION SIZING etc. available for reference 24x7.

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Take care.

Scott Pickering
The Pip Accumulator

EMAIL / FOLLOW ME AT:
drivethru@weeklyfxdrivethru.com
http://www.twitter.com/pipaccumulator
http://www.google.com/+ScottPickering
http://www.youtube.com/c/ScottPickering
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BLOG DATA:
DATE: 10.07.2015
BLOG FORMAT/ VERSION / AUDIENCE: THE FREE NEWSLETTER
BLOG REFERENCE: #161

VIEWS AND COMMENTS IN THIS BLOG:
All the comments and views expressed in my blog are my thoughts and ideas only. They are based on my FUNDAMENTAL views of the markets and my thoughts on the individuals concerned on how they manage positions in the public domain. In addition, I have my own thoughts and views about what I think goes on behind closed doors. You should NOT base any trade ideas on my thoughts and views alone. As I have said on many occasions in my blog, I am a FUNDAMENTAL trader first, then a TECHNICAL trader second using chart analysis to establish what I believe to be excellent trade entry positions. However, you must make up your own mind and trade at your own risk deciding if the entry levels I refer to actually meet with your views and thoughts. This makes complete sense as the risk in trading your account is 100% owned by you

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TRADING &amp; PERFORMANCES DISCLAIMER:
FLASH, RADAR and FUNDAMENTAL trade set-ups, “Tweets” and “Trade ideas” that are posted in my blogs or on Twitter are trades and set-ups that interest me. They are provided for training and informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as an offer, solicitation or recommendation of any specific security or investment strategy. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading Forex carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade any such leveraged products you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin, and seek advice from an independent financial adviser if you have any doubt.