(10227,1,'2017-10-14 08:24:15','2017-10-14 13:24:15','&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nLast week was a light week for economic data but wow the news events were crazy. From a trading viewpoint, I had to split the week into two halves.\r\n\r\nMonday thru Wednesday was boring, boring, boring. Where has the volatility gone? I tweeted out several times phrases such as “chop fest”, “lots of flashing lights”. We can put lipstick on this market but the bottom line is “it is a PIG” the volatility that used to there has to a large extent dried up. If I wanted to look at flashing lights all day, I’ll put up the Christmas Tree early, this is a bit boring.\r\n\r\nThen on Thursday and Friday, Holy Mother of God, it was wild. BREXIT spiced it up, Draghi followed and the US inflation data was a small miss but OMG the market reaction was huge, probably due to the implications it could have on FED rate hikes in 2018.\r\n\r\nI added net pips but I also took losses on Friday. Annoying as it was, my CONTINGENT LIABILITY of all trades and limit orders added to together, was not at my limits but it was higher than usual due to quantity of trades I have at the moment.\r\n\r\nLooking towards the weekend with the geopolitical concerns still out there and the fact that these moves could motor into this week’s early trading, I decided to cut them out. I banked losses of just over 200 pips. The net pip increase for the week was therefore only 160 pips.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong> </strong></p>\r\n\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong></strong><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong>&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">2.1: LOOKING BACK AT LAST WEEK:</span>\r\n\r\nOnly three pieces of news last week resonated with me for this section and regular readers will not be surprised by my choices.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP</u></strong><u>: BREXIT NEGOTIATIONS REACH DEADLOCK then AN OLIVE BRANCH?</u>\r\n\r\nWell, “Glaze my nipples and call me Rita”, in the name of sanity what the bloody hell did the markets expect… a result?\r\n\r\nFor crying out loud, the clues have been stronger and stronger. The UK has been mentioning preparation for a “No deal” a lot recently.\r\n\r\nLast Thursday, after round 4 or 5 of the DIVORCE negotiations, the EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier and the UK equivalent MP and Tory Government Cabinet member David Davis announced the negotiations were deadlocked.\r\n\r\nQuelle bloody surprise!\r\n\r\nThe EU presented a running order of protocol to be ticked off in a strict A to B to C to D order, all nice and easy to follow. The Brits like the idea of D to B to A and then C. The obvious result is deadlock. So with the anticipation of deadlock, the decision to release more and more “sound bytes” about a “No deal” was probably a tactic to try to change the viewpoint of the EU.\r\n\r\nCable sold off, then later the same day out it comes from Barnier, what appears like a concession. Cable spikes back to remove all prior losses.\r\n\r\nMichel Barnier offers a two year “transition extension”. An olive branch, my arse it was not, it was pure genius.  This offer, ties the UK to meeting all EU financial obligations for an additional two years beyond the Article 50 deadline. Basically, in a nutshell… sure we’ll extend everything, but you have to meet all of our rules and regulations in the transition process.\r\n\r\nStep back for a moment....\r\n\r\nThe UK head negotiator (David Davis) is a politician who cannot appear weak as he would be slaughtered in both the Cabinet (behind closed doors) and (publicly ridiculed) in the UK House of Commons. The pressure not to give way on anything is massive, personally and politically as this will be in record books of his public service career.  All the pressure is on his head to achieve the best deal possible, which for the UK, is basically appearing to remain inside the EU but with border controls.\r\n\r\nThe EU chief negotiator is Michel Barnier. He is a French Republican Politician. He is representing 27 countries. His job is to follow the negotiation road map given to him by the “jotter blotters” in Brussels. This will at conclusion be presented to the 27 leaders of the EU for them to ratify.\r\n\r\nBarnier, although I am sure wants to do a great job, couldn’t give a rat’s ass about any fallout because all the pressure is on the UK. He can hold his hands aloft and claim to eternity that he has his road map that must be followed in order. Whether the UK are at fault or not, the blame for any negotiating breakdown can be switched very easily and all the pressure put back across the English Channel. Put yourself in Barnier’s position; it’s a high-profile role and it\'s a win, win no lose job. He just has to follow the guidelines. The transition deal if accepted was a gem in my opinion.\r\n\r\nOffering the two-year transition that Prime Minister May requested is a master stroke from Barnier. He gets the guarantee of badly needed money from the UK into the coffers of the EU in Brussels. It is the equivalent of a modern day “TROJAN HORSE”. However, this is NOT a done deal it needs to be ratified by at least Germany for it to be a runner.\r\n\r\nI still giggle at the HARD BREXIT versus SOFT BREXIT calls made by the media.\r\n\r\nA two-year transition does NOT automatically = SOFT BREXIT\r\n\r\nSOFT BREXIT = CONTAGION…. not going to happen\r\nSOFT BREXIT = CHERRY PICKING… not going to happen\r\n\r\nIf the transition deal is agreed it is nothing more than “Can kicking the issue down the road”.\r\n\r\nAt the back of my cynical mind; Theresa May requests the transition extension, this means that the Article 50 deadline date would now shift to March 2021, what could happen in the interim?\r\n\r\nNew parliamentary elections would have taken place.\r\nMaybe a new referendum on BREXIT?\r\nMaybe another Scottish Independence vote?\r\nA new Prime Minister of a new Government.\r\nA new (God help them) Minister in charge of negotiating the “divorce”.\r\n\r\nTheresa May effectively engineers her own BREXIT deal. She passes the poisoned chalice on.\r\n\r\nThe transition is not yet a done deal. This whole process is still covered in masses of uncertainties. I have no doubt some progress has been made but for the medias sake it’s all put forward as deadlock so far.\r\n\r\nThere simply was never enough time. I wrote months ago that it took Greenland with no way near the same complications of agreements as the UK to leave the full two-year limit. The UK was always going to be longer, it much more integrated and complicated.\r\n\r\nThis is still a huge unknown.\r\n\r\nIf the EU says no to the two-year transition, what then?\r\n\r\nCable drops like a brick because a “NO DEAL” walkaway looks to be the most obvious outcome?\r\n\r\nI know that the BOE have been relatively quiet of late, but I still find the news that the BOE are still considering a rate hike in amongst all this uncertainty plus a series of recent poor economic data more than outweighing any good data, incredible to consider, and frankly, its worthy of a comparison with a Las Vegas high stakes poker room gamble.\r\n\r\nThe latest BCC (British Chamber of Commerce) Quarterly Economic survey of businesses (what a great read), whilst it would send most people to sleep, its overall summation on the current UK economic position from its members was “uninspiring”. Now that\'s what I call a real vote of confidence…. NOT!\r\n\r\nTo raise rates with so much up in the air is a; huge / massive / almighty gamble in my opinion. Not befitting a responsible Central Bank.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>ECB:</u></strong><u> CATALONIA and MARIO DRAGHI (ECB). </u>\r\n\r\nYou couldn’t make this stuff up.\r\n\r\nThe Catalonian declaration of independence was placed on hold, whist the Catalan president Carles Puidegemont stated that it would be suspended whilst he held talks with Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rahoy, who has already basically told him to feck off…. In the nicest possible terms.\r\n\r\nCatalonia accounts for about 40% of Spain’s GDP, so for this reason alone Madrid WILL NOT want to let it go anywhere, hence all the shenanigans. In my opinion, Catalonia is the biggest risk to the EUROZONE since GREECE. It is a massive risk to the Spanish economic recovery.\r\n\r\nI write this, but this is NOT reflected in the price action of the EURO at all. It is in a very tight range and has been for some time.\r\n\r\nWhat has now been created in the Catalan/Madrid crisis is nothing more than polarization.\r\n\r\nWhat is the way forward?\r\n\r\nBusinesses are looking to leave Catalonia. Catalonia would NOT be an instant member of the EU. How could it raise capital to operate? Maybe against future tax income? I see this as a credit event, enormous high risk and this whole matter appears to have not been thought out properly.\r\n\r\nPuidgemont tried to use the referendum vote to pressure Madrid for change, but that seems a tall order to say the least given the financial implications to Spain.\r\n\r\nThis will NOT end well. There will be more unrest to come, but unless a well-drawn out plan is visible, from the outside looking in, this is a mess. It simply cannot be good for the single currency the longer it drags on. Lines in the sand have been drawn and the political and economic risks are obvious on both sides.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nMario Draghi and the ECB governing council as I have mentioned before are taking massive doses of Prozac to try and keep themselves steady as decision day looms on ECB future monetary policy.\r\n\r\nDraghi has said “Based on our regular economic and monetary analyses, we decided to keep the key ECB interest rates unchanged. We expect them to remain at their present levels for an extended period of time, and <strong><u>WELL PAST</u></strong> the horizon of our net asset purchases”\r\n\r\nThat\'s pretty clear to me. The German’s however are not happy with this statement and want change.\r\n\r\nThe current rate of ECB QE (Quantitative Easing) bond buying is at €60 Billion per month. The rumours about this moving forward is that in two weeks’ time at the next ECB Press Conference, Draghi will announce a cut in the monthly purchases to €30 Billion per month from early 2018 and run this reduced volume for about 9 months before the “tapering” will end completely.\r\n\r\nSo… there you have it; forward guidance from the ECB in a nutshell and its very clear so that we can all understand and follow. Will the markets get it?\r\n\r\nHow do I intend to trade the single currency moving forward? For that you will need to subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD</u></strong><u>: FOMC MEETING MINUTES and THE US DOLLAR INDEX (DXY).</u>\r\n\r\nWTF…\r\n\r\nThe minutes reflected the statement.\r\n\r\nHowever, the USD was sold off as I think that the reality of no inflation was starting to hit board members. These minutes were before the bombshell of “THE FED HAS NO CLUE ABOUT INFLATION” and Yellen’s “SIGNS OF INFLATION &amp; TRANSITORY” were used at the last press conference. The minutes were also written before Yellen’s comments regarding the Fed models on inflation calculations are basically crap and inept… those latter descriptive words were mine!!\r\n\r\nThe market sold off after the minutes, the fear of less tightening because of no inflation in 2018 may have rung a few alarm bells… finally. This market is fickle, it over reacts to old news repeatedly and can be painful to follow at times.\r\n\r\nI have found trading this year a challenge, to put it mildly.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nFED or not, the DXY is at a crossroads and we are either going sub 91.00 or higher through 94.00 in the coming sessions.\r\n\r\nAt times over these past weeks I am trading on the basis that the FED are raising rates period, and its pure Technicals on the DXY that will determine its direction. FED policy appears secondary.\r\n\r\nI still find it hard to be long the USD. It has, like I said last week sold off since the TRUMP inauguration. I am looking for reasons to be long the USD both FUNDAMENTALLY and TECHNICALLY. A week ago, I had oversold conditions as a reason that may influence the markets, those have now gone.\r\n\r\nMoving forward, THE DONALD wants low rates and a weak USD. The US will manipulate the USD lower if it has to, it has done so before.\r\n\r\nThis is my most watched chart of late and it will be over the coming sessions as I believe that this chart will be at the basis of most FX strategies being formulated for the short and medium terms moving forward.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/DXY-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10194\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/DXY-15102017-1024x516.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"516\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2: LOOKING AHEAD TO THIS COMING WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n2.2.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ECON-DATA-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10195\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ECON-DATA-15102017-1024x775.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"775\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.2: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/TCHART-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10196\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/TCHART-15102017-1024x838.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"838\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.3: USD – TRADING CHARTS and COMMENTARIES: </u>\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>EUR/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/EURUSD-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10207\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/EURUSD-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/GBPUSD-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10208\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/GBPUSD-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/AUDUSD-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10206\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/AUDUSD-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/NZDUSD-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10209\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/NZDUSD-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCAD-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10210\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCAD-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCHF-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10211\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCHF-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDJPY-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10212\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDJPY-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.4: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:</u>\r\n\r\nThankfully more economic data than last week to choose from. The following all UK based tickle my fancy…\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP:</u></strong><u> CPI, AVERAGE EARNINGS, RETAIL SALES &amp; CARNEY</u>.\r\n\r\nIt\'s a very awesome set up this week for UK news.\r\n\r\nInflation data, Average Earnings and Carney, you could not plan a diary better except for the fact I would have Carney speak after the Retails Sales numbers on Thursday, rather than have him fronting the news events.\r\n\r\nThis data will seal the fate of UK interest rates in November in my opinion. The BOE is ready to push up interest rates and stronger inflation data will probably seal that deal. If there is to be a spanner in the works, it will either come from the increased BREXIT uncertainty that is hanging over the markets at the moment or from the Average Earning Index if it still shows lagging too far behind inflation. However, I think the accountants at the BOE have Carney by the short and curly’s and the one and done hike I think he hopes will keep the wolves from the door.\r\n\r\nI wrote earlier in the blog about my concerns and the gamble I believe that this move would be, so I am not going to repeat myself.\r\n\r\nBy the time, Carney speaks we should know if the BREXIT transition deal is a runner or not or whether the government has rejected it, in which case it will be very interesting to hear what Carney has to say on this subject and if it will affect the BOE thought process on interest rate increases.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.5: HOW TO PLAY THE MARKET THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\nAs we ended last week with the USD getting whacked, one must expect this treat to carry forward into the start of trading this coming week.\r\n\r\nMy focus will be on the USD index (DXY). The level of 90.93 is crucial in my opinion. Should this level break, we could be heading to the mid 80’s. The possible effect of a move sub 90.93 should not be underestimated.\r\n\r\nFrom a macro level the FED are probably still going to hike in December but unless inflation picks up one should question whether the December 2017 rate increase will be the only one until the same time in 2018 (I am assuming that the new FED chairperson in February will play the usual game of stringing the markets along for the year on possible hikes, and make one at the year end to maintain credibility).\r\n\r\nHere are my thoughts: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Should the DXY break lower what happens to EUR/USD?</li>\r\n 	<li>The ECB does NOT want EUR/USD exchange rates above 1.2000. A mid 80’s print in the DXY would have EUR/USD closer to 1.2500 possibly above that level.</li>\r\n 	<li>The effects of a FED rate rise on the DXY should it already be towards the mid 80’s would be minimal.</li>\r\n 	<li>Other G8 Central Banks could not rely on the FED to counter balance any rate increases that they may have planned, as in my opinion the USD would be one weak “sister!”. Therefore, I believe the moves by other Central Banks to normalization or to raise their interest rates could be held back.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThose points are really for the future but they are with me at the moment. My focus would be on cross rate pairs until the situation with the USD has settled down. Trading the USD has an increased risk element attached to it at the moment given the geopolitical risks that would have a direct effect, therefore keeping way from the USD for a while in any event is perhaps not the worst trading idea.\r\n\r\nUp until the end of last week the EUR/AUD &amp; EUR/NZD were great options and they should be again once they have finished their corrective moves lower.\r\n\r\nYou DO NOT need to trade every day. Days when maybe you do not trade can be your best days as CASH is a position.\r\n\r\nThere is a lot for the market to digest at the present time on the heels of NFP. Let the market correct first and wait for it to give a trading signal.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is my own subscriber based Forex support service that offers subscribers my suggested trade set-ups and market commentaries.\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting the HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE tab.\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT 2017 PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nOCTOBER 2017 TO DATE:           +160 net pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE 2017:                    +8,047 net pips\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs on my website  <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nAlternatively, if you prefer to watch a video recording about the PREMIUM SERVICE, click the link below. You will be directed to a 40-minute webinar presentation entitled “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE”.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS ONLY:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4.1: TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\n4.1.1: RISK MANAGEMENT AND POSITION SIZING: <u></u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.2: SENTIMENT CHART,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:\r\n</u><u>\r\n</u><u>4.3: EXISTING CORE TRADES (PLANS &amp; STRATEGIES):</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.4: CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.5: FX BROKER NEWS with their MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FINISHING LINE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.1: WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you have read in this blog and would like the chance to win a FREE SUBSCRIPTION valued at CAD$150.00, all you should do is subscribe to my FREE NEWSLETTER (this blog), by adding your email address on my welcome page just below my cube logo at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\n<u>5.2: PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTIONS:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you’ve read in this blog and should you want to go a stage further and subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE, this can be done on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the Tab SUBSCRIBE HERE.\r\n\r\nSubscribing to the PREMIUM SERVICE is not just about receiving a larger “DRIVE THRU” blog packed with more trading supporting information, my thoughts and ideas. There is much more to a subscription than those things. Check it all out under the tab HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nAlternatively, if you prefer to watch a video recording about the PREMIUM SERVICE, click the link below. You will be directed to a 40-minute webinar presentation entitled “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE”.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n5.3: CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\n\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\nBLOG VERSION: #255 DRIVE THRU\r\n15th October 2017\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','THE EU TROJAN HORSE','','inherit','closed','closed','','10224-revision-v1','','','2017-10-14 08:24:15','2017-10-14 13:24:15','',10224,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/10224-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(10237,1,'2017-10-20 16:13:30','2017-10-20 21:13:30','','ECON DATA 22102017','','inherit','open','closed','','econ-data-22102017','','','2017-10-21 05:58:10','2017-10-21 10:58:10','',10262,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ECON-DATA-22102017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(10238,1,'2017-10-20 16:13:36','2017-10-20 21:13:36','','T CHART 22102017','','inherit','open','closed','','t-chart-22102017','','','2017-10-21 05:58:30','2017-10-21 10:58:30','',10262,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/T-CHART-22102017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(10248,1,'2017-10-20 16:15:18','2017-10-20 21:15:18','','SENTIMENT 22102017','','inherit','open','closed','','sentiment-22102017','','','2017-10-21 06:02:46','2017-10-21 11:02:46','',10262,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/SENTIMENT-22102017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(10249,1,'2017-10-20 16:15:45','2017-10-20 21:15:45','','AUDUSD D 22102017','','inherit','open','closed','','audusd-d-22102017','','','2017-10-21 05:59:10','2017-10-21 10:59:10','',10262,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/AUDUSD-D-22102017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(10250,1,'2017-10-20 16:15:49','2017-10-20 21:15:49','','EURUSD D 22102017','','inherit','open','closed','','eurusd-d-22102017','','','2017-10-21 05:58:52','2017-10-21 10:58:52','',10262,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/EURUSD-D-22102017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(10251,1,'2017-10-20 16:15:53','2017-10-20 21:15:53','','GBPUSD D 22102017','','inherit','open','closed','','gbpusd-d-22102017','','','2017-10-21 05:59:02','2017-10-21 10:59:02','',10262,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/GBPUSD-D-22102017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(10252,1,'2017-10-20 16:15:56','2017-10-20 21:15:56','','NZDUSD D 22102017','','inherit','open','closed','','nzdusd-d-22102017','','','2017-10-21 05:59:19','2017-10-21 10:59:19','',10262,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/NZDUSD-D-22102017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(10253,1,'2017-10-20 16:16:04','2017-10-20 21:16:04','','USDCAD D 22102017','','inherit','open','closed','','usdcad-d-22102017','','','2017-10-21 05:59:28','2017-10-21 10:59:28','',10262,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCAD-D-22102017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(10254,1,'2017-10-20 16:16:07','2017-10-20 21:16:07','','USDCHF D 22102017','','inherit','open','closed','','usdchf-d-22102017','','','2017-10-21 05:59:39','2017-10-21 10:59:39','',10262,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCHF-D-22102017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(10255,1,'2017-10-20 16:16:10','2017-10-20 21:16:10','','USDJPY D 22102017','','inherit','open','closed','','usdjpy-d-22102017','','','2017-10-21 05:59:51','2017-10-21 10:59:51','',10262,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDJPY-D-22102017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(10494,1,'2017-12-02 17:26:16','2017-12-02 22:26:16','<strong>\r\n</strong>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>THE FIRST FEW SHOTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nWelcome.\r\n\r\nWhenever I type December I am already thinking about Christmas, New Year and not being too anal but next year’s trading plans.\r\n\r\nWith regards to my FX trading next year and my plans with the PREMIUM SERVICE, I will announce them on a “drip feed” basis in the “DRIVE THRU” blogs between now and the final one of 2017 due out on 17th December.\r\n\r\nSo, with my own version of the countdown just two more “DRIVE THRU’s” until Christmas after this one!!\r\n\r\nI have had feedback to the recent changes with the DRIVE THRU blog format. I would like to thank those who commented about the changes, there were some positives and some negatives to the new structure.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Some miss “THE SOAPBOX” - some don\'t because it’s NOT directly currency related.</li>\r\n 	<li>Some want more charts. These are reserved for PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers throughout the trading week, sorry.</li>\r\n 	<li>Some want both - more charts and more SOAPBOX!!</li>\r\n 	<li>How to trade the week favourably received.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThe blog takes me about 6-8 hours in total to write, compile and post. My wife, spell checks, grammar checks and signs off that I am NOT being too extreme. Then it has to be broken into the different formats for the various social media releases, update and post the WordPress versions and post the manual versions onto various Social Media formats. My goal is to reduce the time spent on production but have it just as focused but at the same time away from the usual FX reviews. I am a strong believer in differentiation.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nPlease keep the feedback coming I love it and if you picked the DRIVE THRU blog up via TWITTER and you like my style and/or approach please feel free to re-tweet it!\r\n\r\nRemember you can always subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE to get more of my approach on a daily basis and at the same time get some help on making pips. My target for 2018 is 10,000 net pips…. I dare you!!\r\n\r\nNext…\r\n\r\nI enter December with 19 x LIVE TRADES and 14 x LIMIT ORDERS in position raring to go. Normally I would say, as we approach the end of the year it is time to slowly pullback and reduce RISK into the year end…. yeah right!\r\n\r\nAs soon as I plan something like this, opportunities come leaping out at me. It’s all about life choices and the FUNDAMENTALS, so for PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers please note it is very highly likely circa. 99.9% that there will be trading through the Christmas holidays, I just cannot see how it will not happen at this precise moment in time. So; get prepared for, paper hats on, turkey drumstick in hand and Jack Daniels by the side of the keyboard trading coming to a screen near you!\r\n\r\nEnough of that...\r\n\r\nMy sampling of my competition continues. Here is the best from this week’s experiences.\r\n\r\nHow to start this is difficult. I was trying to keep an open mind but pick me up off the floor!!\r\n\r\nI do despair sometimes. I know that I am NOT perfect and sometimes I can be off the wall son occasion with trades, but FFS, I have heard it all now.\r\n\r\nPlanets in alignment to move markets.\r\n\r\nIt’s not a question of Venus and Saturn, there has to be joke in here about Uranus.\r\n\r\nHMOG, you may as well place biscuits over potential trade set ups on paper, place them on the floor and let my Labrador boy, Ozzy eat them. The trade under the biscuit he picks first is the set up to trade!\r\n\r\nTalk about bollocks.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nTHE PREMIUM SERVICE had another great month in November, and it is now only 272 pips behind last year’s record total at this stage of the year.\r\n\r\nNOVEMBER 2017 net TOTAL: 2,381 net pips\r\n2017 YEAR TO DATE: 12,783 net pips\r\n\r\nI do have a few trades hanging around with losses that I have carried forward into December. Most notable is a HEDGED 700 pip USD/CAD 3 separate trades position. The rest are small fry. So that contingent liability will have to be taken into consideration. The bottom line is however that I should remain (all things being equal) above my 10,000 pips per annum objective.\r\n\r\nMore details of the November performance can be found under the HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE tab on my welcome page.\r\n\r\nStaying in sales mode; now is a great time to join the PREMIUM SERVICE and be familiar and ready to go with the 2018 launch!!\r\n\r\nFinally, …\r\n\r\nIs anyone as sick of pigging BITCOIN as I am, my SPAM folders are full of it, for the remainder of 2017 there will be no mentions of fecking BITCOIN or crypto currencies in this blog. I don’t trade it, I am at the moment not interested in it, it is just a distraction to look at the charts and whilst I am sure it will remain around for some time, at the moment, I only have two words to say about BITCOIN… me arse!\r\n\r\nI did find this gem on twitter this week however…\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/BITCOIN-TWEET-03122017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10473\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/BITCOIN-TWEET-03122017-1024x466.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"466\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong>THE FX MARKET PLACE THIS WEEK:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>\r\nTHIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/ECON-DATA-03122017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10478\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/ECON-DATA-03122017-1024x989.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"989\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u>MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:</u>\r\n\r\nThere is swoop of data this week. It will be challenging to say the least. There is a great deal of Tier one data that should influence FX moves through to the year end.\r\n\r\nI think we have a pretty good understanding that the FED will raise come hell or high water, in fact “Hell” could freeze over but I still think Yellen will raise rates regardless.\r\n\r\nIn addition, of course we will continue to watch and listen to the fallout from the ex. TRUMP advisor Mike Flynn news that he will testify against the President of The United States. Having said that the “BUY THE FECKIN’ DIP” mentality even stands true when a possible impeachment case is on the horizon. After the Flynn revelations settled in and the Kushner links also came through, the markets then pared losses. No matter what the news, BUY THE DIP seems to always be the strategy in the U.S.\r\n\r\nIn no particular order: -\r\n\r\n<strong><u>AUD:</u></strong><u> CURRENT ACCOUNT, RETAIL SALES, RBA, GDP &amp; TRADE BALANCE</u>.\r\n\r\nJM&amp;J, this is what you call a “Clatter” of data. It’s all good stuff and highly directional.\r\n\r\nThe AUD has been under pressure to the downside of late. RBA policy via Governor Philip Lowe has been “Status Quo” policy neutral. The housing situation in Sydney causes huge concerns and Philip Lowe has made it clear he is no rush to raise rates but he has stated recently that the next direction of AUD rates will be higher.\r\n\r\nI rate Philip Lowe, I think he’s a thinker. I do NOT think he will want to rock any boats this week even if he has insider knowledge of any of the data numbers due to be released.\r\n\r\nRetail Sales will be a biggie. Last time around it was a 0%. If it does not post a positive number in the run up to Christmas, it never will. This is a key release in my opinion. The Current Account and Trade Balance are important but maybe not as relevant into the year-end. Like many things in December its pushed into the next Calendar year.\r\n\r\nGDP is as important as Retail Sales albeit it\'s a backward-looking number. Last quarter it was 0.8%, a minimum of a beat will be required.\r\n\r\nTrading the AUD will be awkward this week, with so much data. I enter with a lot of AUD short and long trades… so the PREMIUM SERVICE is HEDGED!!\r\n\r\n<strong><u>\r\nUSD:</u></strong><u> JOBS DATA.</u>\r\n\r\nRecently there has been no correlation between the private sector and public-sector jobs data. So, DO NOT trust that the ADP numbers will be an indication of NFP due Friday this week.\r\n\r\nThese numbers are always watched and noted, but in relation to FED policy and the FOMC interest rate decision due later this month, they are not as important in my eyes. I WILL NOT be trading NFP. I will watch and be a trading voyeur but as I have stated many, many times you more often than not have more luck with a national lottery than you do with trading FX on NFP day.\r\n\r\nAs for the numbers, as long as the 6 month averages are maintained I cannot see how the markets could be disappointed. There should be a chunk of part-time given the time of the year and this will create chaos and disorder for the initial knee-jerk reactions but when it’s all said and done its all about wage growth to show inflation. So, the Average Hourly Earnings with the NFP data on Friday will be key.\r\n\r\nI may have to hide my keyboard or take either Ozzy or Aoife for a walk as a distraction as I DO NOT want to trade NFP…. See you Friday then!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>CAD:</u></strong><u> TRADE BALANCE &amp; BOC.</u>\r\n\r\nI have two wives at the moment. My physical one and the other one is the USD/CAD. At times, I feel like I am married to three HEDGED TRADES as well. My losses are fixed at 700 pips while I wait to enter my “HEDGE OUT” trades to trigger.\r\n\r\nThe GDP and Jobs Data last Friday was a real pain in the arse, a nice little pre-data spike could have triggered my short trades. I am now I think probably waiting on this week’s data to hopefully get my entry price!\r\n\r\nWith regards to the data.\r\n\r\nThe TRADE BALANCE must move back towards positive and below CAD$3 Billion. It was April when it was last below CAD$2 Billion. It has a history of failing to meet forecasts.\r\n\r\nStephen Poloz has been a downbeat gloomy little fecker of late and it’s about time he had a spiked egg nog to cheer him up.\r\n\r\nWith the FED raising in December, there will be some pressure to follow suit. I just cannot see it this week. However, Poloz likes to surprise. One cannot rule it out. I would personally be astonished and would expect the next hike in Q1 2018.\r\n\r\nI do however think he will be a little more upbeat on the CAD economy, he should be with last week’s data and also with the run up to the year end and the Christmas holidays.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>USD MAJORS – SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS with BIAS:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/TCHART-03122017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-10479\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/TCHART-03122017.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1016\" height=\"888\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>USD – TRADING CHARTS: </u>\r\n\r\nMore often than not I will use DAILY CHARTS for my analysis. My commentary and thoughts for each trading pair are above the charts.\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n<u>EUR/USD:</u>\r\n</strong>\r\nNot much of a change in my thoughts or the chart that sits below. I think that I may have changed the colours of the lines that\'s about it!\r\n\r\nGREEN LINE = support at 1.1817\r\nPURPLE LINE = my bull / bear line at 1.1880\r\nDARK RED = resistance at 1.1960\r\nBLUE LINE = recent highs at 1.2090\r\n\r\nThe upward channel remains pretty much intact. We have been in a range of 1.1817 to 1.1960 in the past week.\r\n\r\nWe need to obviously break above or below to get this pair moving along. I have this feeling that now we are in December it will take either NFP this week or the ECB the week following to get things moving and give us a direction to follow.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/EURUSD-D-03122017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10482\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/EURUSD-D-03122017-1024x410.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"410\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP/USD:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nI had been writing all week about the 1.3450 level being broken and creating a short squeeze.\r\n\r\nThe chart below, shows a possible “CUP &amp; HANDLE” pattern being formed with a measured move to 1.3900.\r\n\r\nWe must always temper the enthusiasm vis-à-vis the cable as it is always a news release away from a BREXIT announcement that can send it 100 pips lower or 100 pips higher. At the moment, there is a huge belief and more importantly a commitment to see serious progress acknowledged prior to the end of the year. This has me leaning more to the long side.\r\n\r\nThe 76.4% Fibonacci level that sits at 1.3508 is a key level. This pair was obviously spooked on the Flynn news last Friday. A break above this level should see the pair move towards a possible 1.4000 target beyond the CUP &amp; HANDLE pattern, at the golden Fib. level of 161.8%.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/GBPUSD-D-03122017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10483\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/GBPUSD-D-03122017-1024x410.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"410\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>AUD/USD:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nThe down channel remains intact albeit it was temporarily broken on the Flynn news. I am still bearish this pair and see 1.7640 as a great level to short from but even with the Flynn revelations this level failed to be achieved.\r\n\r\nWe are in a tight trading range between the PURPLE lines on the chart 0.7530 to 0.7640.\r\n\r\nThe RBA meets this week. I am not expecting any change in policy and I expect Philip Lowe to release a statement that is once again neutral.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/AUDUSD-D-03122017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10481\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/AUDUSD-D-03122017-1024x410.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"410\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>NZD/USD:\r\n</u></strong>\r\nWe have a bullish engulfing candle from last Friday. This usually means that a move higher should continue to be seen. Of late, these candles have NOT produced the follow through that is usually seen.\r\n\r\nWe are range bound between the two PURPLE lines of 0.6780 and 0.6980.\r\n\r\nTechnically, I think that this move higher just gives us a better price to short from as politically New Zealand has issues to overcome and whilst this uncertainty remains in place the pressure to the downside will always prevail.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/NZDUSD-D-03122017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10484\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/NZDUSD-D-03122017-1024x410.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"410\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD/CAD:</u></strong><strong>\r\n</strong>\r\nBugger…\r\n\r\nI really wanted to be short this pair, but I was looking for a level closer to the 200 DAY SMA and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.\r\n\r\nThat is a “helluva” BIG RED candle on the chart. Usually BIG RED candles are followed by further BIG RED candles.\r\n\r\nThe trading range is 1.2660 to 1.2915.\r\n\r\nWe have the BOC this week, I just can’t see Poloz being dovish. I see him more positive than of late and this may send the USD/CAD lower. Ideally from my point of view I want him to dismiss last Friday’s data as “Mickey Mouse:” and send the USD/CAD back to 1.3000. I just can’t envisage that happening.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/USDCAD-D-03122017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10485\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/USDCAD-D-03122017-1024x410.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"410\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD/CHF:</u></strong><strong>\r\n</strong>\r\nI am still dreaming of bull flags and pennants with this pair. The measured move is to 1.0350, which by interest is a previous level of resistance from last year.\r\n\r\nIf 0.9700 gives way on the back of the flight to safety move which has affected this pair following the “FLYNN” revelations, we could see a move back to the recent lows around 0.9400.\r\n\r\nBe ready for a snap back move with this pair its correlation with its inverse relationship with the EUR/USD is out of sync. But make no mistake, on uncertainty the flight to buy GOLD also affects the CHF.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/USDCHF-03122017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10486\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/USDCHF-03122017-1024x410.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"410\" />\r\n</a>\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD/JPY:</u></strong><u>\r\n</u>\r\nThis pair was hit hard with the “FLYNN” news.\r\n\r\nOn Friday that is almost a 160-pip candle from 111.40 to 113.00. Quite a move for this pair. I think that the trading range to work with is 110.80 to 113.00.  This pair will be affected the most as equities and bonds fly around on the news headlines as they are released.\r\n\r\nIt goes without saying, do not get too heavy in a position size as when the market is headline driven moves can whip around very quickly.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/USDJPY-D-03122017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10487\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/USDJPY-D-03122017-1024x410.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"410\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>MY THOUGHTS ON HOW TO PLAY FX THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\nWe are now in December. This is historically, a strange month, Christmas parties, sexual harassment claims, lawyers will be on 24x7 call outs, and from a trading perspective volatility tends to thin out as the market becomes less liquid.\r\n\r\nWe do have a few interesting snippets however to keep traders at their desks. The GREED factor will certainly come into play with the institutions and for us, the poor retail traders we have to be savvy and selective.\r\n\r\nNews items that are driving the markets have been based around the US TAX BILL, BREXIT and on Friday last week ex. TRUMP National Security advisor, Mike Flynn announced that he will testify against the President. BREXIT will play on for the next two years, but this month it is crucial for UK Prime Minister, Theresa May to see acknowledged progress has been made. My focus this week is GBP related.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/GBPUSD-MONTHLY-03122017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10480\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/GBPUSD-MONTHLY-03122017-1024x398.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"398\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nYou can see from the above Monthly GBP/USD chart that we are breaking out above a multi-year trend line (from August 2104).\r\n\r\nThis is big news if the push higher can be maintained and it should have a knock-on effect through all cable related pairs.\r\n\r\nOne other fact to note from the GBP/USD chart is to take a look at the November monthly candle. It is very, very bullish. In fact, when you look at the moves from the August 2016 lows the monthly candle pattern is trending nicely higher.\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is currently trading EUR/GBP, GBP/AUD and GBP/JPY. I am as I have stated several times of late not 100% happy trading the USD at the moment and my focus is more away from the majors into the cross rates.\r\n\r\nCable will be my main focus this week along with the CAD (to initiate my “HEDGE OUT” trades).\r\n\r\nWe must note that the FED report via the FOMC on December 13th, with the ECB and BOE both on the following day 14th December. I believe Friday 15th December will be the last day with anything near normal trading volumes.\r\n\r\nAs you know I would usually write here to look at cross rate pairs as an option. My GBP trades are POSITION style trades for the long haul and my trading activity with cross rate currency pairs that already have limited liquidity will; be severely curtailed from now on given the reduced volumes ahead. The RISK of getting stuck with an increased volatile pair with reduced trading volumes is just not worth it in my opinion, no matter how much of a volatility junkie you may be.\r\n\r\nFinally, as we enter a period, when the USD should be demonstrating increased strength through the passing of the TAX BILL, but more importantly Central Bank divergence, as Yellen will probably raise U.S. interest rates on December 13th,\r\n\r\nWould it not seem common sense to maybe hold an emerging market cross? Maybe take a look at USD/ZAR, USD/TRY or USD/MXN.\r\n\r\nThe bottom line is to try to be cute. It is you versus the big banks.\r\n\r\nFLYNN: It is a RISK OFF event in my opinion. I need to see reaction on Monday this week to get a better picture. On Friday, last week when the news broke it was like watching headless chickens running around a farmyard. Kushner was linked which may have helped the markets steady. But who knows? The DXY was slammed on Friday following the news breaking, but like the markets pared back after a while (see below).\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/DXY-03122017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10474\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/DXY-03122017-1024x495.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"495\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is my own subscriber based Forex support service that offers subscribers my suggested trade set-ups and market commentaries.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting the HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE tab.\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT 2017 PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\n\r\nPIPS TOTAL NOVEMBER 2017:  = +2,381 pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE:                              = +12,783 pips\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs on my website  <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nAlternatively, if you prefer to watch a video recording about the PREMIUM SERVICE, click the link below. You will be directed to a 40-minute webinar presentation entitled “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE”.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS ONLY:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4:1. TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\n<u> </u><u>4:2. SENTIMENT CHART,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4:3. TRADING PLANS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4:3.1. TRADING PLAN OVERVIEW THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4:3.2.  EXISTING CORE TRADES (PLANS &amp; STRATEGIES):</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4:4. CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4:5. FX BROKER NEWS with their MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FINAL SHOTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you have read in this blog and would like the chance to win a FREE SUBSCRIPTION valued at CAD$150.00, all you need to do is subscribe to my FREE NEWSLETTER (this blog), by adding your email address on my welcome page just below my cube logo at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\n<u>PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTIONS:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you’ve read in this blog and should you want to go a stage further and subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE, this can be done on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the Tab SUBSCRIBE HERE.\r\n\r\nSubscribing to the PREMIUM SERVICE is not just about receiving a larger “DRIVE THRU” blog packed with more trading supporting information, my thoughts and ideas. There is much more to a subscription than those things. Check it all out under the tab HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nAlternatively, if you prefer to watch a video recording about the PREMIUM SERVICE, click the link below. You will be directed to a 40-minute webinar presentation entitled “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE”.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n<u>CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #261 FREE NEWSLETTER\r\n3rd December 2017\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','NO MATTER WHAT… BUY THE DIP REMAINS THE STRATEGY','','publish','open','closed','','no-matter-buy-dip-remains-strategy','','','2017-12-02 17:26:16','2017-12-02 22:26:16','',0,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?p=10494',0,'post','',0),(11056,1,'2018-02-28 15:55:43','2018-02-28 20:55:43','<h4>Total Trades Profit Summaries Archives:</h4>\r\n<section class=\"clearfix\">\r\n<div class=\"one-half first\">\r\n<h2>This Month<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/PS-FEB2018-PERF.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-11047\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/PS-FEB2018-PERF-799x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"799\" height=\"1024\" /></a></h2>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"one-half\">\r\n<h2>Year to date<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/PS-YTDFEB2018-PERF.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-11048\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/PS-YTDFEB2018-PERF-840x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"840\" height=\"1024\" /></a></h2>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<h2>PREVIOUS YEARS</h2>\r\n<h2><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/PS-NET-PROFITS-2017-COMPLETE.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10723\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/PS-NET-PROFITS-2017-COMPLETE-972x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"972\" height=\"1024\" /></a></h2>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/PS-PROFITS-2016.png\"><img class=\"size-large wp-image-9216 aligncenter\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/PS-PROFITS-2016-946x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"946\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/PREM-SERVICE-COMPLETE-2015.png\"><img class=\"size-large wp-image-8804 aligncenter\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/PREM-SERVICE-COMPLETE-2015-1024x1011.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"1011\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/PREM-PROFITS-2014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9214\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/PREM-PROFITS-2014-1024x1022.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"1022\" /></a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</section>','Total Trades Profit Summaries','','inherit','closed','closed','','5000-revision-v1','','','2018-02-28 15:55:43','2018-02-28 20:55:43','',5000,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/5000-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(10884,1,'2018-01-27 10:58:12','2018-01-27 15:58:12','','ECON DATA 27012018','','inherit','open','closed','','econ-data-27012018','','','2018-01-27 11:33:31','2018-01-27 16:33:31','',10885,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/ECON-DATA-27012018.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(10885,1,'2018-01-27 11:40:36','2018-01-27 16:40:36','&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE FIRST SHOT:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nWelcome to the new look FREE NEWSLETTER version of the WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU blog.\r\n\r\nIt is now more compact befitting a complimentary version of my market commentary blog post.\r\n\r\nIf you would like a more detailed commentary of my market thoughts, views, including my suggested trade set ups you will need to subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE. This leads nicely into my subscriber promotion which ends this coming Wednesday at 5PM EST.\r\n\r\n“BUY ONE GET ONE FREE”\r\n\r\nWith a new trading year just started, there is another target of 10,000 pips for me to beat in 2018. I have launched a PREMIUM SERVICE promotion called, “BUY ONE GET ONE FREE”.\r\n\r\nThe details of the “BUY ONE GET ONE FREE” promotion can be found on my home page under the TAB “PROMOTIONS”.\r\n\r\nI would point out that with the PROMOTION for CAD$800.00 you will have a one year’s complete subscription and hopefully be part of the 10,000 pips haul this year.\r\n\r\nSo far this year before the first month has completed the pips total to date is <strong><u>1,453</u></strong>. This represents more than 14% of the annual objective!\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong> MARKET OVERVIEW – MY THOUGHTS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">FEAR, GREED &amp; FOMO but watch JPY</span>\r\n</strong></p>\r\nWhere to start?\r\n\r\nSince starting to write FX related blogs in 2011, many people have said it’s all about the title, be out there, grab potential readers by the balls, give them a hook. I can guarantee you that this works. The two most read blogs since 2011 being the recent: -\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">“OOPS I DID IT AGAIN…TRUMP SENDS THE USD DOWN THE SH*THOLE”\r\nfollowed closely by\r\n“MERKEL GRABS DRAGHI BY THE TESTICLES”</p>\r\nWhilst both of these blogs had extreme titles that sucked in potential readers they also had valid FX points I wanted to get across.\r\n\r\nWhere am I going?\r\n\r\nIn this new format, I will use this section to make readers who are not subscribers think maybe this guy has ideas, thoughts, beliefs, and views and is a bit outside the box.\r\n\r\nHere we go…\r\n\r\nMario Draghi’s “BIG DAY OUT” came and went last Thursday. He was on somewhat of a “MISSION IMPOSSIBLE”, on the basis that, faced with improving economic data in the EUROZONE, he was on very thin ice, in any attempts he thought he may have had of trying, to jawbone the single currency lower.\r\n\r\nBeing fair to Draghi, he said what he could have said without sounding too accommodative. The market did its own thing. Despite what was said, or what was handed out as copy of the statement, the market knows best. The basics of FEAR &amp; GREED in FX are being displayed every second, of every minute, of every hour of every trading day.\r\n\r\nWe have had a FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) markets in equities for some time. The “BUY THE DIP” mentality is so entrenched in Wall Street, there are people working across the floors and in front of terminals who do not know about or have not worked in two-way markets. They have only read about it in books or heard about it in pubs on a Friday night when some old fecker talks about the good old days.\r\n\r\nFX now has FOMO.\r\n\r\nThe constant USD selling has been insatiable. Going back to my economics days with regards to the indifference curve. We do not have a rationality in the market place and we have reached a state of non-satiety, which basically means the consumer cannot get enough of something even though it is over-supplied. In FX terms the USD. There is so much available the FOMO effect is like a rash.\r\n\r\nWe saw it in evidence after Draghi last Thursday.\r\n\r\nGoing backwards 24 hours pre- Draghi, U.S. Secretary Mnuchin basically, stated that he was in favour of a weaker USD, the markets loved it, sell more USD, sell more USD, it was a feeding frenzy at the zoo. Bit of a fu*k up from Mnuchin, these are things as U.S. Secretary to the Treasury you think and want but one keeps one’s gob shut.\r\n\r\nAfter Draghi, 24 hours after Mnuchin’s comments, TRUMP went on CNBC and said that he was misinterpreted and that he (TRUMP) was in favour of a strong dollar and that it would get stronger. Thank God smelly vision has not yet been invented. Someone in CNBC should have been dialing 911 or 999 as the president’s knickers were burning on the back of this statement.\r\n\r\nThe upshot of this was a 2-3 hour USD rally, a huge snap back 200-250 pips in some cases. Then the market traits of FEAR and GREED took over once again and the FOMO effect kicked in.\r\n\r\nHowever, the USD gains were reversed in the next two trading sessions in Asia and Europe, by the time US traders came back to their seats the USD gains were wiped clean.\r\n\r\nHow do you trade in a FOMO market?\r\n\r\nI am NOT a scalper. I am NOT a short-term trader, but from time to time I will dabble, with mixed results.\r\n\r\nIf you are in a position and the train leaves the station stay on board, getting off really means from my TRADE PLAN that you can’t get back on, because we do not get pullbacks of any meaning, because they are very shallow. From a Fibonacci perspective a minimum in my TRADE PLAN is 38%. We do not even see a 23.6% pullback in these FOMO markets at the moment.\r\n\r\nIn my view, without sounding like a DRAMA QUEEN, jumping on board with some of these trades without a plan using or strategic entry is just gambling.\r\n\r\nIt is a pure one-way market, but with experience I know that the snap back could happen at any time and when it does it will be vicious, screen time has taught me this lesson. One requires patience.\r\n\r\nOne always looks for a catalyst of some sort. FX INTERVENTION, A CENTRAL BANK POLICY CHANGE or maybe A SELL OFF IN STOCKS.\r\n\r\nMy money is on the final one listed. Correlations in markets matter and they do count.\r\n\r\nThe JPY is NOT playing ball at the moment. As the US equities rise the USD/JPY should weaken, it’s getting stronger. It is also not reacting to US treasury yields either.\r\n\r\nLast Friday the DOW, S&amp;P and NASDAQ were posting record closes once again, OIL was a little elevated, metals were negative and US 10YR yields were up again.\r\n\r\nThe USD/JPY posted another low now sitting below 109.00.\r\n\r\nCan you imagine what is going to happen to the JPY when there is alleged bad news in the markets if it cannot go up when times are good?\r\n\r\nThe USD/JPY has 105.00 written all over it if we get a major, major sell-off and if FEAR, GREED &amp; FOMO take effect maybe even lower.\r\n\r\nI know that may FX traders are gamblers, you win some, you lose some. But being patient and having a PLAN a STRATEGY also works and this can be done without as much RISK.\r\n\r\nMake absolutely no mistake these moves are just crazy and in 10 years of trading I have never seen anything like it.\r\n\r\nWhat to do now?\r\n\r\nI have talked about the USD/JPY. The EUR/USD is heading higher, I think that we all get that, but it will NOT be a straight line move.\r\n\r\nTherefore, the EUR/USD and probably many of the EUR cross rates pairs are “BUY ON THE DIPS” opportunities.\r\n\r\nI think that we will have, or let me say, we SHOULD HAVE a period of consolidation. Recent moves have been crazy in the USD majors. It has been a one-sided market, impossible to enter on pullbacks. To me, consolidation makes absolute sense.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>USD SUPPORT and RESISTANCE with my BIAS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/TCHART-27012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10865\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/TCHART-27012018-1024x890.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"890\" /></a> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE PREMIUM SERVICE TRADING SUMMARY:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nPREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:\r\n(Incorporating the last 5 PREMIUM SERVICE TRADES)\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/PREM-SERV-LAST5-27012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10864\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/PREM-SERV-LAST5-27012018-1024x854.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"854\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS:</span>\r\n</strong>(This section is for PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS ONLY)</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>\r\nTHE BLOG CHANGES and WHY:</u>\r\n\r\nThe FREE NEWSLETTER is now STRIPPED.\r\n\r\nThe reason for this is very simply time. The production time to research, complete, verify and publish had become a very time-consuming affair taking up huge amounts of time on Fridays and Saturdays. If I were to place a total time from beginning to end per blog I would think in the region of 8-9 hours a weekend.\r\n\r\nBasically, it’s too much time and the changes needed to be made.\r\n\r\nI have removed Chart patterns, thoughts on the market, looking backwards and forwards, my thoughts on how to trade this coming week, together with the USD major charts and currency pair thoughts because PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers receive all of these through the week as it progresses. Therefore, it was duplication of effort.\r\n\r\nThe Economic Data and the looking forward items fits better with subscribers only and so they have moved into the subscribers only area.\r\n\r\nThis revised version will, I hope, free up more time to focus on analyst reports and more chart analysis, which benefits all of us.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.1. TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\nThe net pip total so far for 2018 = <strong>1,453 pips.<u>\r\n</u></strong>\r\n\r\nWith this high total of pips, you may find this next statement a little confusing. This market is very hard to trade, very hard to follow, very hard to fathom and most of all bloody difficult to understand many of the moves that have taken place especially in the last two weeks or so.\r\n\r\nOne of my three goals last week was to set up JPY POSITION trades. The BOJ has committed to being DOVISH to basically infinity and possibly beyond!\r\n\r\nAs you know Central Bank Monetary Policy is a pre-requisite to my directional longer-term trades through POSITION trade set ups and therefore JPY trades will not apply. However, I am looking at several fundamental factors still such as: -\r\n\r\nPersistent USD selling (weakness)\r\nU.S. Bond Yields\r\nPrecious Metals\r\nOil\r\nCentral Bank Monetary Policy\r\nEquity Prices\r\nInter-Market correlations\r\n\r\nThe USD/JPY has NOT correlated with Bond Yields / Equities, so I am assuming that when (and they will at some time) change direction the USD/JPY is going to have a “BAD DAY” at the office. If Sentiment and Fundamentals really change the USD/JPY back at 100.00 is NOT out of the question in my opinion.\r\n\r\nSo, the JPY is still on my RADAR just not with a series of POSITION TRADES.\r\n\r\nI will review the EUR to the long side and start to place EUR related trades following Mario Draghi’s Press Conference\r\n\r\nSuccesses last week were mainly from cross rates once again. Keeping away as far as possible from USD related trades is the way to go. It is hard because that is where liquidity and two-way action lies but it is a success to keep moving with.\r\n\r\nThis market has been so one-sided these past couple of weeks or so that when the consolidation period starts it will hopefully bring both buyers and sellers out to play at the same time.\r\n\r\nThe TRUMP move last Thursday sending the USD higher was impressive but the DXY sell-off thru the Asian and European sessions was scary. All the previous daily closing candles ignored. It just showed how much core momentum is in the market to drive the DXY lower. Despite TRUMP intervention, the desire to hold USD is non-existent. When you add the FED Monetary Policy into the mix, it is hard to comprehend given the positions of the BOJ and ECB.\r\n\r\nI have found myself sidelined a great deal, basically just clocking up “screen time”. Opportunities that meet my TRADE PLAN are fewer. Patience really is a virtue in FX. Trading sure is fun!\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>5.2. SENTIMENT,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:\r\n</u>\r\n\r\nFrom a strategy perspective I am clear on what I want to focus on for the remainder of Q1 and into Q2, beyond that it gets a wee bit fuzzy.\r\n\r\nLet me clarify: -\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>I am still fundamentally a seller of NZD and CAD currencies. I see this as a trade for most of 2018</li>\r\n 	<li>I will start building JPY trades around JPY strength based on factors outlined above in section 5.1. Will these last beyond Q2?</li>\r\n 	<li>I will start to build long EUR trades. This is a difficult one time wise given the fact that the ECB policy should at some stage curtail the long EUR trade enthusiasm that seems to have covered the FX market like a rash of late.</li>\r\n 	<li>Once I can see the BREXIT negotiations moving forward I will add more GBP trades in Q2 and Q3. I do see a 1.5000 objective. By the time I participate with GBP/USD will be soon be there, but I am benefitting from cross rate trades at the moment.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nCAUTION: We have seen some monster moves recently based off USD weakness; i.e. a 600 pip move higher in cable. These huge pip moves were similar with EUR and AUD as well.\r\n\r\nThese huge price moves have to both consolidate and re-trace and these will be the basis of many entries that I have in mind for POSITION TRADES, but first I need to note the high levels from where to plot my retracements. This is one reason why there are no LIMIT ORDERS in position at the moment.\r\n\r\nA massive amount of chart analysis completed last weekend was dumped as I did NOT get what I wanted from the market. This is the nature of the beast, but it is very frustrating.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/SENTIMENT-27012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10866\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/SENTIMENT-27012018-780x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"780\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.3. THE WEEK AHEAD:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.1. ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES THAT INTEREST ME:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/ECON-DATA-27012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10884\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/ECON-DATA-27012018-1024x922.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"922\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.2. MY KEY EVENTS ON THIS WEEK’S CALENDAR:</u>\r\n\r\nIn no particular order: -.\r\n\r\n<u>GBP - CARNEY:</u> It is always fun, never a dull moment to watch Carney in action. He has recently made comments outside of his job scope vis-à-vis the UK falling behind, economically and having its voice heard in financial markets post BREXIT. That would have gone down really well in the CITY. Whilst it is impossible to predict a POST BREXIT UK and how it will operate. I think that it is a pretty safe bet given its position that the UK will remain a world financial centre. Let’s see what he says. Hopefully he will have his JCB close by his side.\r\n\r\n<u>CAD – GDP:</u> This will be a real indicator albeit backward looking as to whether the BOC will face reality and start factoring in more interest rate hikes. Stephen Poloz has stated that the BOC is DATA DEPENDENT only.\r\n\r\n<u>USD – CONSUMER CONFIDENCE:</u>  I am not that fussed about US employment data and the FOMC for Janet Yellen’s last statement. I am more interested in the U.S. man and woman on the street. Are they spending money? It is the enthusiasm Wall Street based or has it filtered down to Main Street as well?\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.3. HOW I WILL APPROACH and TRADE THE MARKET THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\nThis coming week, we have US employment data and the FED (FOMC). These events will gather all the headlines, plus TRUMP’S STATE OF THE NATION ADDRESS, which will be loved by Republicans and hated by Democrats. There’s is a prediction for you!\r\n\r\nI am expecting consolidation this week, at least in the early part of the week. It will great to see if we can achieve market moves of economic data this week and news headlines for a change.\r\n\r\nMy micro and macro approach this week will be the JPY. I know this will please my two Asian groups who applaud when I put out a JPY set up!\r\n\r\nDo NOT expect a vast quantity of set ups, I do not like spreading myself thin in a week that contains NFP.\r\n\r\nTrade sizes will remain smaller and my primary focus will be JPY and CAD pairs.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>5.3.4. MY “MACRO” TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEK AHEAD:</u>\r\n\r\nMy action plan for the week is: -\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>Prepare and post out as many of my longer-term POSITION TRADE limit orders in the early stages of the week, markets permitting.</li>\r\n 	<li>Add EUR long into my TRADE PLAN strategy following the ECB this Thursday.</li>\r\n 	<li>Continue to coordinate my strategy into my TRADE PLAN vis-à-vis the JPY. This is now very much a tradable currency in 2018. For me it is similar to Lazarus coming back from the dead.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.4 SUMMARY - LONG TERM CORE TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/LT-CORE-POS-20012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10859\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/LT-CORE-POS-20012018-1024x951.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"951\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.5. CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.5.1. CURRENT LIVE TRADES:\r\n\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/LIVE-TRADES-27012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10867\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/LIVE-TRADES-27012018-1024x1017.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"1017\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u>5.5.2. CURRENT LIMIT ORDER TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\nThere are zero at the moment.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.6. FX BROKER NEWS and MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\nNothing to add here. They were all very quiet last week, with me anyhow.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE FINAL SHOT:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\n\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @ThePremService\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #163 PREMIUM SERVICE\r\nDATE: 27th January 2018','FEAR, GREED & FOMO but watch JPY','','publish','open','closed','','fear-greed-fomo-watch-jpy','','','2018-01-27 11:40:36','2018-01-27 16:40:36','',0,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?post_type=member_posts&#038;p=10885',0,'member_posts','',0),(10429,1,'2017-11-18 06:23:10','2017-11-18 11:23:10','<strong>\r\n</strong>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nWelcome.\r\n\r\nThis week’s DRIVE THRU takes on a new format. I am not changing for changing sake, I am responding to comments. The main purpose of this blog is to formally communicate with my PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers, but it does have a dual purpose. The second purpose is to inform and hopefully attract serious FX traders to become new PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers. It is always a balance and for about 4 years now, I keep tweaking the content. I hope that you like this revision. Given my history in this regard it will NOT be the last.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nLast week had it all; boredom, excitement, annoyance, frustration, surprise plus profits and losses and several shots of Jack Daniels… that was just Tuesday. I think I read somewhere that it was the strongest / biggest single day rally in the USD for years.\r\n\r\nIt certainly shook the markets for those playing the EUR/USD (Head and Shoulders) / DXY (Inverted Head and Shoulders). Money flows at the moment are driving these huge moves. The NIKKEI had a 20% move higher in a couple of months. Fund managers are looking for value as we head into the year end, monies are moving to Europe away from Japan etc.… there is a lot going on and currencies are being used in huge volumes to facilitate a lot of these moves.\r\n\r\nOvernight last Thursday into Friday morning the PREMIUM SERVICE was blasted with over 750 pips of profit when my core short positions across the AUD and NZD drilled home pips across several trades.\r\n\r\nFor me last week was a two-day trading week… All that wasted time for the other days sitting in front of screens!!\r\n\r\nIt has been quite some time since I have written “RISK OFF” in my blog but we are sort of there as we are bouncing around in the US equity markets. It is a battle between the “BUY THE DIP” mentality and market bears. Is the most hated rally ever finally being sold? Not sure but a pullback of sorts, and its minimal in the grand scheme of things is happening.\r\n\r\nEnough of that…\r\n\r\nOver the past month or so I have been sampling my competition to the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\nThere are so many chart analysts out there, but that is all they do. They look backwards and tell what patterns were formed and why, but there is very little out there who look forward and trade, in fact I doubt very many of them have skin in the market.\r\n\r\nI have looked across the spectrum; costly to cheap and well-known to unknown.\r\nI followed big names who have tens of thousands of followers on twitter, as well as specific trade set up providers and analysts from brokers. In total about 10 names/ businesses, here is a sample of what I came across. It’s not totally inclusive as some were just not worth the print!\r\n\r\n<strong><u>TV ANAYLST WITH OWN FX SUPPORT BUSINESS (UK BASED)</u></strong>: Is a regular guest on BNN, CNBC and BLOOMBERG, huge on Twitter. In my opinion, he is a gambler. He puts trades up a minute or two before high beta news events. It\'s a 50-50 guess. You hear about the good ones on Twitter and the failures disappear. The service covers all markets, I am just Forex, so a lot of what I received was great for correlations but nothing revolutionary.  I made money but the cost was double what I charge. Lots of supporting information, not sure where its cut and pasted from. Response time to questions poor.\r\n\r\nIt was a high cost, I made money but the gambling trades are stupid in my opinion.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>TV ANAYLST WITH OWN FX SUPPORT BUSINESS (US BASED): </u></strong>Another, is so fast and impossible to follow on a webinar and the amount of assumptions made are incredible. This service provider is a regular on CNBC. All the trades lost money. Analysis is good but the implementation of trades a joke. It was all over the map for me, no discipline, no structure. The chat room was frankly dangerous, no management, inexperienced traders being exposed to all sorts of crap. Is it any wonder FX gets a bad name? I would close that down right now.\r\n\r\nThere are so many cost options, so much to take in, maybe something I did NOT buy worked but I doubt it. I am confused about the whole package options and I blame this service for my migraine during the week. Response time to questions excellent.\r\n\r\nCannot possibly trade LIVE trades. Very well-known must live off huge fee incomes from webinars, on-line books, algorithm sales (they don\'t work either) and TV appearance fees.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>BROKER ANALYST (UK BASED):</u></strong> This person from a large Broker, also on Business TV a fair bit, I respect as a chart analyst, but the LIVE trading is a fecking joke. He simply never trades. It’s all theory. No skin in the game.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>TRADES SERVICE PROVIDER (HONG KONG BASED):</u></strong><strong>  </strong>Four times more expensive than the PREMIUM SERVICE no supporting information for trades, poor response times and trades were all 10 or 15 pip scalps that would NOT cover the cost of the subscription unless you were trading 4/5 standard lots a time. Not my target audience and too high RISK for most people. I just about broke even. Not my cup of tea. Now they are SPAMMING me… Jesus, Mary and Joseph!!\r\n\r\n<strong><u>SUMMARY:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nI have faults, just ask my wife! Trading in the FX market I always have real skin in the market. I feel the trades. I trade without emotion (most times) because I manage RISK. I do not have hundreds of subscribers, no way near. I have a solid group of serious FX traders from around the globe and two syndicates through spokespeople that adds about 20 additional traders into the mix. I keep it simple and I try my best to provide a personal and prompt service. I, the PREMIUM SERVICE am looking for serious traders who want to trade, not have to trade, I hope that makes sense.\r\n\r\nTo do what I do, I can’t have more than 50 subscribers. There are still a few spaces left.\r\n\r\nI may chop ‘n change trades around to fit the market conditions, which can be difficult to follow with everyone being in different time zones, but that is trading. I trade to make $$$ not to lose $$$.\r\n\r\nI was up at 3.30AM on a couple of mornings last week playing with trades. That is the reality of trading in the FX market, its open from Sunday at 5PM EST and closes the following Friday at 5PM EST. I am NOT interested in “that trade was closed whilst I was asleep!” If you are a serious trader you have little sleep between Sunday and Friday each week.\r\n\r\nBack on track…\r\n\r\nAt the end of the day from my research, did I find anything I want to add to the PREMIUM SERVICE?\r\n\r\nThere are a couple of things I will introduce moving forward but overall, I feel good about the research I provide it is mostly brief and to the point. Those services that provide lots of commentary, I strongly suspect DO NOT TRADE. I struggle for hours as it is now and I consider myself damn good at time management.\r\n\r\nFinally,\r\n\r\nThere will be no blog next weekend, we have friends flying in from the UK. The opportunities to trade will be slim. Plus, zero time for completing research and finding the 10 hours or so required to complete the blog from start to finish will just not be there. So, it is a see you in two weeks after this week’s review.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong></strong><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong>&nbsp;</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>LOOKING AHEAD THIS COMING WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\nTHIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/ECON-DATA-19112017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10401\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/ECON-DATA-19112017-1024x884.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"884\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>USD MAJORS – SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS with BIAS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/TCHART-19112017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-10402\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/TCHART-19112017.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1014\" height=\"898\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>USD – TRADING CHARTS: </u>\r\n\r\nMore often than not I will use DAILY CHARTS for my analysis.\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>EUR/USD:\r\n\r\nOverall recent data from the EUROZONE has been good. We have seen a pullback from the recent 1.1860 highs. RSi (Relative Strength Indicator) is moving higher and given the better data, the bulls are trying to regain control once again. I think that we need to see a break higher above 1.1880 (BLACK LINE) for the bulls to be back in control.\r\n\r\nSupport is good circa. 1.1660 and on the chart below (PURPLE LINE) and more recently at 1.1750 (BURGUNDY LINE).\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/EURUSD-D-19112017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10414\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/EURUSD-D-19112017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\nThe recent weakening USD has pulled cable higher. I am however always thinking that this pair is one news item away from a 100-pip fall and it could happen at any time.\r\n\r\nThe chart below shows a bullish set of candles, which completely goes against my FUNDAMENTAL views regarding this pair. Price was rejected very strongly at 1.3260 last Friday. That rejection stopped me out of GBP/NZD and GBP/AUD longs at the time… bugger.\r\n\r\nI think that we range trade with this pair between the two Fibonacci levels of 23.6% at 1.3170 and 38% at 1.3260.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/GBPUSD-D-19112017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10415\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/GBPUSD-D-19112017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\nThis pair is under pressure as you can clearly see from the chart below. We were held up at 61.8% Fibonacci level last Friday. The spike from this low will allow traders such as me through the PREMIUM SERVICE to re-load short trades this week. The bigger the spike the better… bring it on.\r\n\r\nWe are getting close to 30 level on the RSi therefore, a couple of re-set trading sessions would suit me fine!!\r\n\r\nThere are several potential trading patterns one can use on the pair, for now I am running with a channel set up as this pair seems to like channels.\r\n\r\nAs long as the RBA remains neutral I cannot see this pair moving higher in the near term.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/AUDUSD-D-19112017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10413\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/AUDUSD-D-19112017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\nWe are getting closer to a 30 reading on the RSi. We can of course drop below but I am hoping for a spike to allow me to re-load PREMIUM SERVICE short trades.\r\n\r\nThe political uncertainty in New Zealand is driving this pair lower and for the foreseeable future I see no change in this connection.\r\n\r\nPREMIUM SERVICE subscribers know what my target is to the downside with this pair, the candlestick pattern does look very bearish to me.\r\n\r\nBulls if there are any, will not be back in control of this pair unless we break back above 0.7000, which, seems an awfully long way away at the moment when one looks at current pricing.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/NZDUSD-D-19112017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10416\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/NZDUSD-D-19112017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\nBugger…\r\n\r\nI really want this pair above 1.2900 to short. After last Friday’s in line inflation print, the pair spiked to the 61.8% Fibonacci level and then pulled back.\r\n\r\nThe upward sloping channel is basically still intact on the chart below, so I still have some hope for now. Who am I kidding? This pair is bound to about turn and break through the trend line support and leave me behind!!\r\n\r\nWe have Retail Sales data this week. Does this mean that I may have to wait another week for my short entry?\r\n\r\nBelow 1.2725 would make me have to re-think my PLAN.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/USDCAD-D-19112017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10417\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/USDCAD-D-19112017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\nAm I dreaming with the pennant / flag patterns on the cart below? It is rather an awkward shape. The measured moves play to 1.0460 (BURGUNDY) and 1.0175 (BLACK).\r\n\r\nI am struggling to know what to do with this pair. The PREMIUM SERVICE has a small long trade, which is out of the money at the moment. I am not sure what to do with this pair, but I do know that longer-term I want to be long.\r\n\r\nI am working on the fact we are in a range of 0.9840 to a.0040.\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/USDCHF-D-19112017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10418\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/USDCHF-D-19112017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\nBecause I am stupid I let 60 pips of profit disappear with this pair last Friday… argh!!\r\n\r\nRISK sentiment is ruling this pair at the moment as the NIKKEI sells off and uncertainty persists in Washington. Add into the mix treasury yields. Now ask me why did I give up my short so cheaply? Because I am stupid!!\r\n\r\nThis pair has 108.00 written all over it in my opinion. The 200 DAY SMA comes in around 111.80, which was original take profit level, but a break below here would NOT surprise me and a test of 110.00, the 61.8% Fibonacci level would seem reasonable to me for the shorter term.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/USDJPY-D-19112017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10419\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/USDJPY-D-19112017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:</u>\r\n\r\nMost of the economic data releases this week are related to speeches by Central Bank leaders. Therefore, it is reactionary news, which of late I have not enjoyed much as it has been lacking conviction or momentum. The recent exceptions being the BOE Super Thursday and Draghi’s ECB Press Conference. There was certainly direction following these, but the rest… not my cup of tea.\r\n\r\nOf what remains, the following short list interests me: -\r\n\r\n<strong><u>AUD:</u></strong><u> MONETARY POLICY MEETING MINUTES</u>.\r\n\r\nThese minutes surely to God cannot be as much of a snooze fest as the original statement release. It passed basically without a flicker. Philip Lowe also speaks about 12 hours after the minutes are published.\r\n\r\nThe RBA are neutral. It will be interesting to see if any timescales on policy were discussed plus any inklings vis-a-vis housing prices in the Australian market.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>\r\nUSD:</u></strong><u> FOMC MEETING MINUTES.</u>\r\n\r\nIt’s not about this year, 2017 that has me including this item in this section, it is about future discussions into 2018. At the end of the day with a new FED chair moving in early next year, I am not expecting future policies to be changed or placed on hold. Central Banks are well oiled dinosaurs that move so slowly and like massive oil tankers when a change of policy is made in the sense that it takes oil tankers 5/6 miles to turnabout.\r\n\r\nRate hikes into 2018 is what will catch the eye in this release.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>CAD:</u></strong><u> CORE RETAIL SALES.</u>\r\n\r\nI am looking to short the USD/CAD and add to my CORE SHORT POSITION. Therefore, I want the poor data to continue to give me the best entry level possible. The closer to 1.3000 the better…. I am waiting.\r\n\r\nBeing realistic however, last month’s reading was a dismal negative 0.7%. I would be astonished if a negative print was repeated in the run up months to Christmas.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>HOW TO PLAY THE MARKET THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\nPersonally, I believe that we are in a consolidation period once again. Last week the USD was whacked and the commodity currencies were taken to the woodshed.\r\n\r\nThe majors and the cross rates in my opinion need to re-set. There were some massive moves over the past week. EUR/USD +800 pips, GBP/NZD about +600 pips or so and GBP/AUD about +500 pips.\r\n\r\nThe Monthly ATR (Average True Range) GBP/AUD is just under 1,000 pips so when you consider that 500 pips was the range last week, we need to consolidate the moves. Not that we have to consolidate with the cross-rate pairs, they are very volatile but you have to be aware of these facts into this week.\r\n\r\nWe are light on true economic data this week and therefore we will be at the will of the news wires… oh shit I can hear you saying.\r\n\r\nYes regretfully, it will be the Senate and the numbers of GOP senate members that will either vote yes or no on the TRUMP TAX REFUND. From what I can see it’s no longer tax reform, that is far too radical for dysfunctional politicians to stomach.\r\n\r\nBREXIT will feature as progress really needs to be established prior to the end of the year. We are soon into the season of lavish Christmas Parties in Brussels. The expense accounts will be out in full and the hospitality industry will move up from yellow to red alert as the cha ching of cash and need for extra credit card swipe machines intensifies.\r\n\r\nIf David Davis (UK Chief negotiator) doesn’t get some UK BREXIT positives on paper pre-Christmas, I can see a Tory party revolt and a new leader in place for early 2018. I write this and I am fully aware that no one with any grey matter in their heads would want the poison chalice of dealing with BREXIT, unless you do not mind shoving two fingers in the air to the EU and taking the no deal option…. enter Boris Johnson.\r\n\r\nI think therefore that trading USD majors especially the EUR/USD and USD/JPY will be very reactionary to US data and BREXIT will keep anything GBP tied up.\r\n\r\nTherefore, the commodity currencies should offer us option. The AUD and NZD currencies in particular are weak and trading very heavily. Whilst I believe we have to allow for resetting pullbacks to enter these currencies remain the best option for trading pairs with liquidity.\r\n\r\nThe NZD is especially under pressure politically and moves lower should continue as long as political uncertainties continue. The AUD is being pushed lower by the RBA. Hats off to Philip Lowe this is being done professionally and the move is to a large extent given what usually happens being conducted under the radar.\r\n\r\nI have already said we should wait for the commodity cross rates to reset so that leaves the smaller currencies and exotic pairs.\r\n\r\nI closed a number of trades last Friday pre-weekend on the failure of the AUD and NZD currencies. I still think that pairs like the AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY, AUD/NZD, NZD/CAD etc. are still viable until the market reset is completed.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is my own subscriber based Forex support service that offers subscribers my suggested trade set-ups and market commentaries.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting the HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE tab.\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT 2017 PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\n\r\nPIPS ADDED LAST WEEK:           = +1,276 pips\r\n\r\nPIPS MONTH TO DATE:                = +1,445 pips\r\n\r\nYEAR TO DATE:                              = +11,847 pips\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs on my website  <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\nAlternatively, if you prefer to watch a video recording about the PREMIUM SERVICE, click the link below. You will be directed to a 40-minute webinar presentation entitled “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE”.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS ONLY:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4:1. TRADING REVIEW:\r\n</u><u>\r\n</u><u>4:2. SENTIMENT CHART,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4:3. TRADING PLANS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4:3.1. TRADING PLAN OVERVIEW THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4:3.2.  EXISTING CORE TRADES (PLANS &amp; STRATEGIES):</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4:4. CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4:5. FX BROKER NEWS with their MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> INTO THE CLOSE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you have read in this blog and would like the chance to win a FREE SUBSCRIPTION valued at CAD$150.00, all you need to do is subscribe to my FREE NEWSLETTER (this blog), by adding your email address on my welcome page just below my cube logo at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\nPREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTIONS:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you’ve read in this blog and should you want to go a stage further and subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE, this can be done on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the Tab SUBSCRIBE HERE.\r\n\r\nSubscribing to the PREMIUM SERVICE is not just about receiving a larger “DRIVE THRU” blog packed with more trading supporting information, my thoughts and ideas. There is much more to a subscription than those things. Check it all out under the tab HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nAlternatively, if you prefer to watch a video recording about the PREMIUM SERVICE, click the link below. You will be directed to a 40-minute webinar presentation entitled “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE”.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\nCLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\r\n</a>\r\nBLOG VERSION: #FREE NEWSLETTER\r\n19th November 2017\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','KIWI WILL REMAIN UNDER PRESSURE','','publish','open','closed','','kiwi-will-remain-pressure','','','2017-11-18 06:23:10','2017-11-18 11:23:10','',0,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?p=10429',0,'post','',0),(10263,1,'2017-10-21 06:06:03','2017-10-21 11:06:03','&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nI began last week, carrying forward from the prior week some large negative cross rates losses. The charts prior to some poor US data were relatively constructive and I made the decision based upon my longer-term views to HEDGE four cross-rate trades. The decision to HEDGE was made primarily due to rising geopolitical tensions and headline news events that could just rip up in my face… NORTH KOREA, IRAN, CATALONIA and BREXIT.\r\n\r\nAt the beginning of the week, Monday and Tuesday, I was playing a waiting and watching game. Now HEDGED my losses were fixed and I set up what I call the “OUT” trade based on revised chart analysis. The market was slow and just trying to extract a few pips a day was difficult as we were range bound. I was\r\n\r\nTweeting and writing to my subscribers that for me at the current time it was all about patience. I had to let the markets consolidate.\r\n\r\nWednesday I was really pist off as I let a few pips drift by.\r\n\r\nThen overnight Wednesday/Thursday early morning it all kicked off. My PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers were already positioned SHORT the NZD as this was one of my CORE POSITIONS for some time.\r\n\r\nThe coalition announcement was just what the doctor ordered. At one stage I had almost 30 LIVE trades to deal with and fresh trades triggered what felt like every two or three minutes as the Kiwi got crushed. At 2:30AM last Thursday I was up and at my screens. The following 4-5 hours reminded me why I enjoy trading so much. I took profits off the table, banked pips, moved stops to protect $$$, increased limits and removed some other trades that were just part of the forest stopping me from seeing the wood on the trees I wanted to follow. It was hectic, and, at times frantic whilst I gathered my thoughts and put my TRADING PLAN which was thought through from the night before into action.\r\n\r\nTwo of the HEDGES have been exited in profit by 132 additional pips. Of the remaining HEDGES, one is on the way to its exit and the other has yet to move considerably in my chosen “OUT” direction, but as my trading position is fixed; I can wait and focus elsewhere first.\r\n\r\nThe great news is that from my trading perspective the New Zealand government coalition is NZD negative and the trade has only just begun.\r\n\r\nSo, what I thought was going to be one of the most boring weeks of trading since I started was exciting and quite profitable.\r\n\r\nTo put the week in perspective. The prior week 160 net pips were added. Last week the PREMIUM SERVICE added an additional net pip total of +1,112 pips, making the total for 2017 +9,159 pips.\r\n\r\nOn June 25th, 2017, just after Breda and I had completed our trip to Australia and New Zealand, which followed our cross-country house move into Nova Scotia, the pip total stood at 2,113 pips.\r\n\r\nThe pip gathering since the start of July this year has been relentless, but at the same time there have been days of inactivity waiting for trades and being patient.\r\n\r\nI was going to place this next paragraph about trading with THE PREMIUM SERVICE at the end of the blog but it makes sense to include it here: -\r\n\r\nMy annual target of 10,000 pips is in sight, however, nothing can be taken for granted and given that my position sizing this year has been smaller due to the markets have greater RISK attached my income from trading will be lower this year… but, there should be an income barring any disasters in the run up to the year end.\r\n\r\nMy point here as I mention every year is that those of you who trade with smaller account sizes can still make some money from trading Forex.\r\n\r\nSingle MINI LOT trades                                 = USD$1.00 each\r\nPREMIUM SERVICE Annual target               = 10,000 pips\r\nAnticipated Gross Income                            = USD$10,000 (10,000 pips x USD$1)\r\n\r\nLess PREMIUM SERVICE\r\nAnnual subscription                                       = USD$1,000 (equivalent)\r\nNET TRADING INCOME                                 = USD$9,000\r\n\r\nWorking on the 50% rule\r\nShould you can only capture:\r\n50% of my suggested trades\r\n50% of my entries on time\r\n50% of my exits on time\r\nYou could still generate a NET INCOME\r\nafter subscription                                            of USD$4,0000\r\n\r\nObviously, you would need in the first year to open and adequately fund a broker account to meet the trading criteria you have set yourself. I would say to trade MINI LOT trades you would require a minimum of a USD$6,000 account for you first year after one year you should be able to trade and operate your account on trading income and then as the year’s progress increase your trading size to say 2 or 3 MINI LOTS but at the same time you must remember increased POSITION SIZES = INCREASED RISK.\r\n\r\nRISK MANAGEMENT is crucial to FX trading. Without it you fail.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:\r\n\r\n</strong><u>2.1: LOOKING BACK AT LAST WEEK’S NEWS.</u></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nHere is what tickled my fancy in the news last week as a currency trader.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>NZD</u></strong><u>: GOVERNMENT COALITION ANNOUNCEMENT.\r\n\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n26 days following the New Zealand elections, Jacinda Ardern leader of the Labour Party became the country’s latest Prime Minister.\r\n\r\nThere was a split vote almost a month ago and the New Zealand First Party leader, Winston Peters in dramatic form announced that his populist party would throw its support in a coalition with Labour. Along with the “greens” the NZ First and Labour will be the coalition government.\r\n\r\nIt was pure theatre as, neither incumbent Prime Minister Bill English, nor Jacinda Adern knew which way Winston Peters was going move.\r\n\r\nThis result and the coalition is a total unknown and the markets would have preferred a Bill English National Party led coalition.\r\n\r\nThis move should NOT be underestimated, as it is mammoth. It was a decision for change involving Housing, Immigration, reducing NZ poverty and Foreign Investment in property. These are structural economic changes.\r\n\r\nOn the news, the NZD/USD was crushed lower by 160 pips, the EUR/NZD and GBP/USD moved up by over 400 pips each and the antipodean cross AUD/NZD moved up by over 270 pips.\r\n\r\nThese moves were stellar and over the coming sessions I see these moves consolidating. There should be plenty of pips available into the end of the year.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP:</u></strong><u> CPi, CARNEY, AVERAGE EARNINGS, RETAIL SALES &amp; BREXIT.</u>\r\n\r\nIt was an action-packed week for sterling.\r\n\r\nThe week started well with CPI which was in line with expectations at 3% this is basically what is fueling the BOE accountants to raise rates as it is a full 1% above the BOE target.\r\n\r\nCarney presented in front of a House of Commons committee on inflation and was dovish but saying that interest rates would probably rise, but it would be more than likely reading between the “yada yada” a one and done scenario. He saw inflation stopping around 3% and cable sold off as a result. There was nothing new in what Carney said so the market reaction was as usual weird.\r\n\r\nAverage earnings came in a 2.2%. The difference between earnings and inflation at 0.8% is hardly the climate in which to raise rates in my opinion. Nevertheless, it looks a done deal with an 80% market expectation that UK interest rates will move higher in November.\r\n\r\nJust to spice things up Retail Sales were a miss. In fact, it was a bloody awful number -0.8% versus an expectation of -0.1%. Cable sold off and then in usual cable style during the day recovered most of its losses.\r\n\r\nIn the middle of all the economic data the BREXIT roadshow stumbled along. Theresa May and David Davis met with Michel Barnier and although a cover up the cracks press release from both parties said that it was a beneficial meeting, the two-year Article 50 transition period extension that Prime Minister May requested did not appear as a resolution from the meeting, so for now at least the March 2019 deadline remains, unreal as it is!\r\n\r\nSo, the $64,000 question is how do you trade cable?\r\n\r\nA few months ago, I think it was HSBC who had a call that matched my own thoughts which was, GBP/USD 1.2000 and EUR/GBP to parity. They have since changed their minds on this call on the basis that originally, they believed that the economy would drive cable and not the BOE. Of late, the BOE is the driver of cable.\r\n\r\nHowever, I am still not so sure that the 1.2000 and parity calls are still the correct ones.\r\n\r\nTo raise rates as I have repeatedly stated during so much uncertainty hanging over the UK never mind the 3% inflation rate is just crazy in my opinion. The fact that earnings are still lagging by 0.8% must weigh in somewhere one would think.\r\n\r\nIt is now widely reported that the BREXIT deal cannot be struck by March 2019 and a “NO DEAL” scenario is becoming more and more likely. I have said from the get go 2 years to exit was an unreal time-scale and I am now vindicated with my prediction and thought process from months ago.\r\n\r\nBack to FX…\r\n\r\nI still do NOT know what way to trade cable. The crosses are now mixed following the New Zealand news. GBP/NZD is pressing higher and the AUD/NZD is also pressing higher which, places pressure on the GBP/AUD to move lower.\r\n\r\nThe EUR/GBP is moving higher back towards 0.9000 once again, however, it appears that it is cool and trendy to short this pair. I do NOT agree with the sheep mentality here and think that this may be the pair to focus on rather than GBP/USD.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>EUR:</u></strong><u> CATALONIA.</u>\r\n\r\nYou couldn’t make this stuff up.\r\n\r\nThursday last week was the deadline for Catalonia to declare independence. The Catalan president Carles Puidegemont said he wanted to talk dirty with Rahoy, but the Prime minister basically said bollocks and triggered the Spanish government’s Article 155, which takes power away from Catalonia.\r\n\r\nWhat next?\r\n\r\nHere’s a taster for what’s ahead. The Catalan government allegedly instructed supporters of independence to go to SABADELL and LA CAIXA banks and take as much cash as they could out of the ATM machines. Trying to create a “RUN” on the banks as these two have announced moving their headquarters out of Catalonia because of the uncertainty.\r\n\r\nOn all the Catalonian shenanigans the EUR/USD fell a few pips and then regained almost all of them back again. This pair is Teflon coated.\r\n\r\nHow the hell do you trade this pair?\r\n\r\nThe ECB eagerly awaited press conference is due this coming Thursday maybe all will be revealed then from the words of wisdom from Mario Draghi. Although, as I wrote last week the ECB has given out detailed forward guidance already on their intentions, there are only a few blanks left to fill. Am I going crazy?\r\n\r\nThe threat of nuclear war from the little rocket man does bugger all to move markets, so the potential of the Spanish economy going down the tubes is like a pimple on the back of an elephant.\r\n\r\nThe Spanish / Catalonia crisis will rumble on for weeks….\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>CAD:</u></strong><u> RETAIL SALES &amp; CPi.</u>\r\n\r\nShocking numbers. Retail Sales came through at -0.3%, the market was expecting 0.5%. CPi missed 0.2% monthly versus 0.3% and year to date 1.6% versus 1.7%.\r\n\r\nThis week on Wednesday, the BOC meets. I am still thinking that the BOC will raise before the year end but it looks very doubtful that a rate increase will be announced this week.\r\n\r\nExpect the word “TRANSITORY” to be used a few times!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD</u></strong><u>: JANET YELLEN’S REPLACEMENT.</u>\r\n\r\nWho is it going to be?\r\n\r\nTake your pick.\r\n\r\nJANET YELLEN\r\n\r\nGARY COHN\r\n\r\nJEROME POWELL\r\n\r\nKEVIN WARSH\r\n\r\nJOHN TAYLOR\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nDONALD TRUMP’S opinions in my opinion, are usually based on the “Last Man Standing” approach. The last person he speaks with is usually just wonderful, much better than the person a day earlier who was at that time the best one so far.\r\n\r\nThis has taken up a lot of TV time and newspaper column inches and social media chatter. I can speculate here until the cows come home and even with a deadline in place which is just around the corner, I could still be speculating as my wife and I sit down to our Christmas dinner.\r\n\r\nI take the view that the FED chairperson can influence the markets but he or she does rule over the institution single handedly. There are civil servant types in place to stop change. The FED chair only has limited scope in my opinion. The institution is very long standing and formats and structures are in place to stop people getting carried away with power going to their head.\r\n\r\nTRUMP’s interview will be along the lines of keep interest rates low and say that you want to make America great again and you have the job. That is how simplistic I think TRUMP believes the job to be…. frightening, very scary stuff.\r\n\r\nWe are being told that JEROME POWELL and JOHN TAYLOR are the two front-runners and that a decision will be announced within the next 10 days prior to TRUMP jetting with Melania to Asia on a goodwill visit to calm tensions in the area…yeah right tensions reduced my arse!\r\n\r\nWhat I can tell you in this blog is that the name of Janet Yellen’s replacement appears to have a greater impact on the USD (DXY) than the threat of a nuclear warhead from North Korea…. go figure that one out!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2: LOOKING AHEAD TO THIS COMING WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n2.2.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ECON-DATA-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10237\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ECON-DATA-22102017-1024x713.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"713\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.2: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/T-CHART-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10238\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/T-CHART-22102017-1024x839.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"839\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.3: USD – TRADING CHARTS and COMMENTARIES: </u>\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>EUR/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/EURUSD-D-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10250\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/EURUSD-D-22102017-1024x500.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"500\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/GBPUSD-D-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10251\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/GBPUSD-D-22102017-1024x500.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"500\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/AUDUSD-D-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10249\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/AUDUSD-D-22102017-1024x500.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"500\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/NZDUSD-D-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10252\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/NZDUSD-D-22102017-1024x500.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"500\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCAD-D-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10253\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCAD-D-22102017-1024x500.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"500\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCHF-D-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10254\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCHF-D-22102017-1024x500.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"500\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDJPY-D-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10255\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDJPY-D-22102017-1024x500.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"500\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.4: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:\r\n\r\n</u>Only two pieces of upcoming economic data interests me this week.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>CAD:</u></strong><u> BOC RATE STATEMENT &amp; PRESS CONFERENCE</u>.\r\n\r\nWednesday should be a very interesting day for the CAD currency.\r\n\r\nStephen Poloz, governor of the BOC has been true to his word and maintained credibility with the markets by doing what he said he was going to do.\r\n\r\nI expected a lot of “Transitory” to be used during the Press Conference. I would be astonished if he raised rates at the moment, however, I would be looking very closely to hear his views on a possible hike before the end of 2017.\r\n\r\nScotiaBank still believe that a hike is on the cards before the end of 2017. If their predictions are as good as the service in the local branches I would take this analysis with a pinch of salt!! Being fair, they are not too far away on their FX analysis, but there is always a first time to be well off!!\r\n\r\nI am currently SHORT the USD/CAD. Yes, I am that trader on the COT report!!\r\n\r\nI still expect Poloz to remain with hawkish undertones to his statement. He cannot, turn around after two rate increases and turn dovish. Mark Carney would without a second thought, but Poloz is cut with a different cloth.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>EUR:</u></strong><u> ECB RATE DECISION &amp; PRESS CONFERENCE.</u>\r\n\r\nFinally,\r\n\r\nMario Draghi gets to have his day on announcing the ECB future monetary policy to take the markets through 2018 and beyond.\r\n\r\nWill Draghi and the ECB pull it off? The want to start back on the road to normalization very slowly without the markets pricing everything ion from day one and destroying the EURO.\r\n\r\nGiven his past failures of being able to deliver the content and have the market reaction that he wants has always been the challenge facing the ECB President.\r\n\r\nIn the past, he has not been helped by “bubble and squeak” aka Wolfgang Schauble (ex. German Fin Minister) and Jens Weidman (Head of the Bundesbank), they would continually contradict and dispute Draghi’s path forward with ECB policy. (it’s all part of the EUROPEAN <strong><u>UNION</u> </strong>approach to harmony). If they were not enough the Austrian Central Bank Governor, who, is on the ECB council, Ewald Nowotny, would also contradict and screw up the messages from Draghi!\r\n\r\nSo, to say Mario Draghi has an uphill task would be an understatement.\r\n\r\nHowever, all is NOT lost.\r\n\r\nDraghi has been cute this time around.\r\n\r\nAhead of this week’s press conference the ECB has been giving over the past two weeks what I am viewing as forward guidance.\r\n\r\nInterest rates will remain accommodative long after the ECB bond buying (asset purchase) program has ended. Low rates will be policy for an extended period of time.\r\n\r\nThe Quantitative Easing (QE) program is being “Tapered”. Currently at €60 Billion is expected to reduce and the only answers that the market seeks confirmation on are to the following questions; new amount and for how long?\r\n\r\nThe problem that Draghi has is that beyond the top layer it goes much, much deeper.\r\n\r\n28 countries in the EU (presently), with 17 of these countries inside the EUROZONE single currency.\r\n\r\nYou simply cannot have a monetary policy for 17 countries operating centrally. There is no one size fits all.\r\n\r\nTo even get close, structural reforms are required country by country to be more aligned. This is NEVER going to happen. How in the name of sanity can you compare the economies of Germany with those of Malta, Greece or Slovenia? It is just NOT possible.\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>Therefore, aggressive policies will just NOT work. Maybe the ECB blueprint of accommodative policies to infinity is something that the markets will have to get their heads around.</li>\r\n 	<li>There is NO real inflation.</li>\r\n 	<li>Unemployment is high, especially youth unemployment in too many countries.</li>\r\n 	<li>Growth may be rising but it is patchy in some areas.</li>\r\n 	<li>So much of the positivity of late has been created with a fluctuating OIL price and this is making data better than it is.</li>\r\n 	<li>Negative rates may disappear. However, using the “old school” definition of interest rate normalization, I think is a dream for the ECB and there is no reason to increase interest rates unless there are signs of inflation, which there are NOT.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThis Thursday, is a big moment for Draghi and the ECB, his words will be dissected, put back together again and then re-dissected. I was hoping that in conjunction with the FED it would be easier to see the path to trade the EUR/USD. I am not sure. My initial thoughts were to go long EUR/USD, then it changed to short EUR/USD given the ECB forward guidance and the support in the DXY to buy USD.\r\n\r\nI closed my EUR/USD last Friday for a tiny profit. I am playing a waiting game now until after the ECB. I am sticking to cross rate pairs in the interim.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.5: HOW TO PLAY THE MARKET THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\nIf I knew the answer to that question, I would NOT be sitting in front of a bank of computer screens typing away…\r\n\r\nIt goes without saying the USD leads. This week however, we have two Central Banks reporting.\r\n\r\nThe BOC and ECB for differing reasons both have the markets attention. Both are involved in potentially big moves for the FX market.\r\n\r\nAdd to this the fact that the market is twitchy over the announcement of the new FED Chairperson and the overhang of geopolitical tensions in NORTH KOREA and IRAN. Plus, we also have BREXIT and CATALONIA to work with.\r\n\r\nTHE NZD is close to being toast. This is covered in much more detail later in this blog for my PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers.\r\n\r\nBasically, I would use cross rates until we see how the USD is going to react to the news when it finally comes through.\r\n\r\nIt is so tempting to trade EUR/USD and USD/JPY but in real terms the risks are too apparent at the moment.\r\n\r\nThe USD/JPY is no longer correlated to the Nikkei – huge RISK when it corrects or the Nikkei corrects either way it is impossible to gauge timelines and what happens first.\r\n\r\nThe EUR/USD is very just range bound itself because the markets are indecisive. It is winding up for a big move and I do not think that this will happen until the ECB announcement later this week. Bear in mind, a threat of Nuclear War, senior citizens being manhandled out of polling booth, Catalan Independence and BREXIT failings, have all failed to move this pair.  The change in FED chairperson has had more of an effect but even looking deeper into this, it’s been reasonably muted when all said and done.\r\n\r\nI got suckered into EUR/USD trades last week, it took me a couple of days to exit with a small profit. I just DO NOT see the reason to go mad into anything USD related, maybe the NZD/USD exempted until the dust settles on several issues. There are plenty of other opportunities.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is my own subscriber based Forex support service that offers subscribers my suggested trade set-ups and market commentaries.\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting the HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE tab.\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT 2017 PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nLAST WEEKS PIP TOTAL:             +1,112 net pips\r\nOCTOBER 2017 TO DATE:           +1,753 net pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE 2017:                    +9,159 net pips\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs on my website  <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nAlternatively, if you prefer to watch a video recording about the PREMIUM SERVICE, click the link below. You will be directed to a 40-minute webinar presentation entitled “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE”.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS ONLY:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4.1: TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\nLast week was my best trading week in 2017. Over a month’s pip gain objective was added inside of 48 hours.\r\n\r\nLast week: Net new pips added = 1,112 pips.\r\n\r\nMonth of October to date = 1,753 pips.\r\n\r\nYear To date pip total = 9,159 pips.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nYou make your own luck but I feel vindicated in my decision to remain CORE SHORT the NZD and to remain long AUD/NZD for the past two years or so. The AUD/NZD has been a very profitable pair for trading. Its moves are very easy to follow… most of the time!\r\n\r\nThe NZD move is not over (see below).\r\n\r\nWhat has pleased me the most, was to stick with the NZD crosses and take the losses a week last Friday. Whilst hedging has its risks, you can park the trade and wait if needs be. I have my PLAN for exiting and I work the plan moving forward. Having a PLAN when reading FX is essential. Without this you are running around like a headless chicken.\r\n\r\nI banked $$$ across JPY trades and other USD trades but as mentioned already in the blog, these for me at the current time have a RISK attached that can be avoided.\r\n\r\nMoving forward still has challenges attached. In my opinion it’s all about being cute with trade selection.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n\r\n</u><u>4.2: SENTIMENT CHART,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:\r\n\r\n</u>\r\n\r\nMoving forward the big question is what happens with the USD.\r\n\r\nDoes it move up with USD strength or does it resume its move lower after this small retrace higher? If I knew the answer to this life would be just a blast!\r\n\r\nLooking longer term. The NZD economy is in for a complete makeover given the Labour/NZ first alliance. I have often said that the NZD/USD was over-priced and fair value was more like 0.6500. I have also stated on numerous occasions that fair value based on NAB papers for the AUD/NZD is much closer to 1.2000.\r\n\r\nMy immediate focus is the NZD currency.\r\n\r\n<u>SCENARIO 1:</u>\r\n\r\nThe USD moves higher with strength.\r\n\r\nThe EUR/USD hits c.1.1200\r\n\r\nThe GBP/USD hits c.1.2000\r\n\r\nThe AUD/USD moves back to c.0.7500\r\n\r\nThe NZD would get demolished to 0.6500 maybe even lower.\r\n\r\nThe NZD crosses would be on fire moving higher; AUD/NZD, EUR/USD and GBP/NZD\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>SCENARIO 2:</u>\r\n\r\nThe USD moves lower with weakness. It continues the trend lower that it has been in since the TRUMP inauguration.\r\n\r\nThe EUR/USD hits c.1.2500\r\n\r\nThe GBP/USD hits c.1.3600\r\n\r\nThe AUD/USD moves up to c.0.8200\r\n\r\nThis is also great for the NZD crosses and the NZD/USD may only see a life of maybe 100 pips, if that.\r\n\r\nObviously, nothing moves in straight lines but its all good news as far as I can see, as long we have a directional trade. The SENTIMENT will rule the direction.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nOn the sentiment chart below you will see that it’s almost a complete reversal in sentiment from last week but we are more aligned. USD strength is the key feature this week. Hold onto your hats though, TRUMP is bound to cause friction over the Janet Yellen replacement and God knows whatever he touches next. The sentiment chart could change very quickly.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/SENTIMENT-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10248\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/SENTIMENT-22102017-784x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"784\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.3: EXISTING CORE TRADES (PLANS &amp; STRATEGIES):</u>\r\n\r\nI am STILL bearish the CAD and NZD currencies, although I have reduced my CAD exposure quite a bit with a BOC Rate announcement and Press Conference this week. I have NOT ruled out a HEDGE or two with the CAD as I am a believer in higher CAD interest rates.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE CAD:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nCurrently, I am live the following: -\r\n\r\n3 x live short USD/CAD trades\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: Is to wait until after the BOC this Wednesday to decide what further actions are required. I may HEDGE or I may cut the trades and take a loss.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE NZD</u></strong>:\r\n\r\nCurrently I have 1 x live long AUD/NZD trades and 1 x EUR/NZD long trade (HEDGED) plus a EUR/NZD “OUT” trade for the hedge.\r\n\r\nPlus: - I have 3 x AUD/NZD trades and GBP/NZD and NZD/JPY limit order trades in position.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: I will be looking to add NZD trades across the board early this week.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.4: CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\nCURRENT LIVE TRADES:\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LIVE-TRADES-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10240\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LIVE-TRADES-22102017-954x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"954\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\nCURRENT LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LIMIT-ORDERS-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10239\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LIMIT-ORDERS-22102017-1024x954.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"954\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.5: FX BROKER NEWS with their MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\nNothing new to add here this week.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FINISHING LINE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5.1: WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you have read in this blog and would like the chance to win a FREE SUBSCRIPTION valued at CAD$150.00, all you need to do is subscribe to my FREE NEWSLETTER (this blog), by adding your email address on my welcome page just below my cube logo at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\n<u>5.2: PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTIONS:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you’ve read in this blog and should you want to go a stage further and subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE, this can be done on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the Tab SUBSCRIBE HERE.\r\n\r\nSubscribing to the PREMIUM SERVICE is not just about receiving a larger “DRIVE THRU” blog packed with more trading supporting information, my thoughts and ideas. There is much more to a subscription than those things. Check it all out under the tab HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nAlternatively, if you prefer to watch a video recording about the PREMIUM SERVICE, click the link below. You will be directed to a 40-minute webinar presentation entitled “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE”.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n5.3: CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\n\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\nBLOG VERSION: #152 PREMIUM SERVICE\r\n22nd October 2017\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','WILL THE ECB PULL IT OFF?','','inherit','closed','closed','','10262-revision-v1','','','2017-10-21 06:06:03','2017-10-21 11:06:03','',10262,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/10262-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(10264,1,'2017-10-21 07:36:09','2017-10-21 12:36:09','&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nI began last week, carrying forward from the prior week some large negative cross rates losses. The charts prior to some poor US data were relatively constructive and I made the decision based upon my longer-term views to HEDGE four cross-rate trades. The decision to HEDGE was made primarily due to rising geopolitical tensions and headline news events that could just rip up in my face… NORTH KOREA, IRAN, CATALONIA and BREXIT.\r\n\r\nAt the beginning of the week, Monday and Tuesday, I was playing a waiting and watching game. Now HEDGED my losses were fixed and I set up what I call the “OUT” trade based on revised chart analysis. The market was slow and just trying to extract a few pips a day was difficult as we were range bound. I was Tweeting and writing to my subscribers that for me at the current time it was all about patience. I had to let the markets consolidate.\r\n\r\nWednesday I was really pist off as I let a few pips drift by.\r\n\r\nThen overnight Wednesday/Thursday early morning it all kicked off. My PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers were already positioned SHORT the NZD as this was one of my CORE POSITIONS for some time.\r\n\r\nThe coalition announcement was just what the doctor ordered. At one stage I had almost 30 LIVE trades to deal with and fresh trades triggered what felt like every two or three minutes as the Kiwi got crushed. At 2:30AM last Thursday I was up and at my screens. The following 4-5 hours reminded me why I enjoy trading so much. I took profits off the table, banked pips, moved stops to protect $$$, increased limits and removed some other trades that were just part of the forest stopping me from seeing the wood on the trees I wanted to follow. It was hectic, and, at times frantic whilst I gathered my thoughts and put my TRADING PLAN which was thought through from the night before into action.\r\n\r\nTwo of the HEDGES have been exited in profit by 132 additional pips. Of the remaining HEDGES, one is on the way to its exit and the other has yet to move considerably in my chosen “OUT” direction, but as my trading position is fixed; I can wait and focus elsewhere first.\r\n\r\nThe great news is that from my trading perspective the New Zealand government coalition is NZD negative and the trade has only just begun.\r\n\r\nSo, what I thought was going to be one of the most boring weeks of trading since I started was exciting and quite profitable.\r\n\r\nTo put the week in perspective. The prior week 160 net pips were added. Last week the PREMIUM SERVICE added an additional net pip total of +1,112 pips, making the total for 2017 +9,159 pips.\r\n\r\nOn June 25th, 2017, just after Breda and I had completed our trip to Australia and New Zealand, which followed our cross-country house move into Nova Scotia, the pip total stood at 2,113 pips.\r\n\r\nThe pip gathering since the start of July this year has been relentless, but at the same time there have been days of inactivity waiting for trades and being patient.\r\n\r\nI was going to place this next paragraph about trading with THE PREMIUM SERVICE at the end of the blog but it makes sense to include it here: -\r\n\r\nMy annual target of 10,000 pips is in sight, however, nothing can be taken for granted and given that my position sizing this year has been smaller due to the markets have greater RISK attached my income from trading will be lower this year… but, there should be an income barring any disasters in the run up to the year end.\r\n\r\nMy point here as I mention every year is that those of you who trade with smaller account sizes can still make some money from trading Forex.\r\n\r\nSingle MINI LOT trades                                 = USD$1.00 each\r\nPREMIUM SERVICE Annual target               = 10,000 pips\r\nAnticipated Gross Income                            = USD$10,000 (10,000 pips x USD$1)\r\n\r\nLess PREMIUM SERVICE\r\nAnnual subscription                                       = USD$1,000 (equivalent)\r\n\r\nNET TRADING INCOME                               = USD$9,000\r\n\r\nWorking on the 50% rule\r\nShould you can only capture:\r\n50% of my suggested trades\r\n50% of my entries on time\r\n50% of my exits on time\r\nYou could still generate a NET INCOME\r\nafter subscription                                            of USD$4,0000\r\n\r\nObviously, you would need in the first year to open and adequately fund a broker account to meet the trading criteria you have set yourself. I would say to trade MINI LOT trades you would require a minimum of a USD$6,000 account for you first year after one year you should be able to trade and operate your account on trading income and then as the year’s progress increase your trading size to say 2 or 3 MINI LOTS but at the same time you must remember increased POSITION SIZES = INCREASED RISK.\r\n\r\nRISK MANAGEMENT is crucial to FX trading. Without it you fail.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\"><strong>2. THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></p>\r\n<strong>\r\n\r\n</strong><u>2.1: LOOKING BACK AT LAST WEEK’S NEWS.</u>\r\n\r\nHere is what tickled my fancy in the news last week as a currency trader.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>NZD</u></strong><u>: GOVERNMENT COALITION ANNOUNCEMENT.\r\n\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n26 days following the New Zealand elections, Jacinda Ardern leader of the Labour Party became the country’s latest Prime Minister.\r\n\r\nThere was a split vote almost a month ago and the New Zealand First Party leader, Winston Peters in dramatic form announced that his populist party would throw its support in a coalition with Labour. Along with the “greens” the NZ First and Labour will be the coalition government.\r\n\r\nIt was pure theatre as, neither incumbent Prime Minister Bill English, nor Jacinda Adern knew which way Winston Peters was going move.\r\n\r\nThis result and the coalition is a total unknown and the markets would have preferred a Bill English National Party led coalition.\r\n\r\nThis move should NOT be underestimated, as it is mammoth. It was a decision for change involving Housing, Immigration, reducing NZ poverty and Foreign Investment in property. These are structural economic changes.\r\n\r\nOn the news, the NZD/USD was crushed lower by 160 pips, the EUR/NZD and GBP/USD moved up by over 400 pips each and the antipodean cross AUD/NZD moved up by over 270 pips.\r\n\r\nThese moves were stellar and over the coming sessions I see these moves consolidating. There should be plenty of pips available into the end of the year.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP:</u></strong><u> CPi, CARNEY, AVERAGE EARNINGS, RETAIL SALES &amp; BREXIT.</u>\r\n\r\nIt was an action-packed week for sterling.\r\n\r\nThe week started well with CPI which was in line with expectations at 3% this is basically what is fueling the BOE accountants to raise rates as it is a full 1% above the BOE target.\r\n\r\nCarney presented in front of a House of Commons committee on inflation and was dovish but saying that interest rates would probably rise, but it would be more than likely reading between the “yada yada” a one and done scenario. He saw inflation stopping around 3% and cable sold off as a result. There was nothing new in what Carney said so the market reaction was as usual weird.\r\n\r\nAverage earnings came in a 2.2%. The difference between earnings and inflation at 0.8% is hardly the climate in which to raise rates in my opinion. Nevertheless, it looks a done deal with an 80% market expectation that UK interest rates will move higher in November.\r\n\r\nJust to spice things up Retail Sales were a miss. In fact, it was a bloody awful number -0.8% versus an expectation of -0.1%. Cable sold off and then in usual cable style during the day recovered most of its losses.\r\n\r\nIn the middle of all the economic data the BREXIT roadshow stumbled along. Theresa May and David Davis met with Michel Barnier and although a cover up the cracks press release from both parties said that it was a beneficial meeting, the two-year Article 50 transition period extension that Prime Minister May requested did not appear as a resolution from the meeting, so for now at least the March 2019 deadline remains, unreal as it is!\r\n\r\nSo, the $64,000 question is how do you trade cable?\r\n\r\nA few months ago, I think it was HSBC who had a call that matched my own thoughts which was, GBP/USD 1.2000 and EUR/GBP to parity. They have since changed their minds on this call on the basis that originally, they believed that the economy would drive cable and not the BOE. Of late, the BOE is the driver of cable.\r\n\r\nHowever, I am still not so sure that the 1.2000 and parity calls are still the correct ones.\r\n\r\nTo raise rates as I have repeatedly stated during so much uncertainty hanging over the UK never mind the 3% inflation rate is just crazy in my opinion. The fact that earnings are still lagging by 0.8% must weigh in somewhere one would think.\r\n\r\nIt is now widely reported that the BREXIT deal cannot be struck by March 2019 and a “NO DEAL” scenario is becoming more and more likely. I have said from the get go 2 years to exit was an unreal time-scale and I am now vindicated with my prediction and thought process from months ago.\r\n\r\nBack to FX…\r\n\r\nI still do NOT know what way to trade cable. The crosses are now mixed following the New Zealand news. GBP/NZD is pressing higher and the AUD/NZD is also pressing higher which, places pressure on the GBP/AUD to move lower.\r\n\r\nThe EUR/GBP is moving higher back towards 0.9000 once again, however, it appears that it is cool and trendy to short this pair. I do NOT agree with the sheep mentality here and think that this may be the pair to focus on rather than GBP/USD.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>EUR:</u></strong><u> CATALONIA.</u>\r\n\r\nYou couldn’t make this stuff up.\r\n\r\nThursday last week was the deadline for Catalonia to declare independence. The Catalan president Carles Puidegemont said he wanted to talk dirty with Rahoy, but the Prime minister basically said bollocks and triggered the Spanish government’s Article 155, which takes power away from Catalonia.\r\n\r\nWhat next?\r\n\r\nHere’s a taster for what’s ahead. The Catalan government allegedly instructed supporters of independence to go to SABADELL and LA CAIXA banks and take as much cash as they could out of the ATM machines. Trying to create a “RUN” on the banks as these two have announced moving their headquarters out of Catalonia because of the uncertainty.\r\n\r\nOn all the Catalonian shenanigans the EUR/USD fell a few pips and then regained almost all of them back again. This pair is Teflon coated.\r\n\r\nHow the hell do you trade this pair?\r\n\r\nThe ECB eagerly awaited press conference is due this coming Thursday maybe all will be revealed then from the words of wisdom from Mario Draghi. Although, as I wrote last week the ECB has given out detailed forward guidance already on their intentions, there are only a few blanks left to fill. Am I going crazy?\r\n\r\nThe threat of nuclear war from the little rocket man does bugger all to move markets, so the potential of the Spanish economy going down the tubes is like a pimple on the back of an elephant.\r\n\r\nThe Spanish / Catalonia crisis will rumble on for weeks….\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>CAD:</u></strong><u> RETAIL SALES &amp; CPi.</u>\r\n\r\nShocking numbers. Retail Sales came through at -0.3%, the market was expecting 0.5%. CPi missed 0.2% monthly versus 0.3% and year to date 1.6% versus 1.7%.\r\n\r\nThis week on Wednesday, the BOC meets. I am still thinking that the BOC will raise before the year end but it looks very doubtful that a rate increase will be announced this week.\r\n\r\nExpect the word “TRANSITORY” to be used a few times!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD</u></strong><u>: JANET YELLEN’S REPLACEMENT.</u>\r\n\r\nWho is it going to be?\r\n\r\nTake your pick.\r\n\r\nJANET YELLEN\r\n\r\nGARY COHN\r\n\r\nJEROME POWELL\r\n\r\nKEVIN WARSH\r\n\r\nJOHN TAYLOR\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nDONALD TRUMP’S opinions in my opinion, are usually based on the “Last Man Standing” approach. The last person he speaks with is usually just wonderful, much better than the person a day earlier who was at that time the best one so far.\r\n\r\nThis has taken up a lot of TV time and newspaper column inches and social media chatter. I can speculate here until the cows come home and even with a deadline in place which is just around the corner, I could still be speculating as my wife and I sit down to our Christmas dinner.\r\n\r\nI take the view that the FED chairperson can influence the markets but he or she does rule over the institution single handedly. There are civil servant types in place to stop change. The FED chair only has limited scope in my opinion. The institution is very long standing and formats and structures are in place to stop people getting carried away with power going to their head.\r\n\r\nTRUMP’s interview will be along the lines of keep interest rates low and say that you want to make America great again and you have the job. That is how simplistic I think TRUMP believes the job to be…. frightening, very scary stuff.\r\n\r\nWe are being told that JEROME POWELL and JOHN TAYLOR are the two front-runners and that a decision will be announced within the next 10 days prior to TRUMP jetting with Melania to Asia on a goodwill visit to calm tensions in the area…yeah right tensions reduced my arse!\r\n\r\nWhat I can tell you in this blog is that the name of Janet Yellen’s replacement appears to have a greater impact on the USD (DXY) than the threat of a nuclear warhead from North Korea…. go figure that one out!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2: LOOKING AHEAD TO THIS COMING WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n2.2.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ECON-DATA-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10237\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ECON-DATA-22102017-1024x713.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"713\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.2: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/T-CHART-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10238\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/T-CHART-22102017-1024x839.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"839\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.3: USD – TRADING CHARTS and COMMENTARIES: </u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>EUR/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/EURUSD-D-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10250\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/EURUSD-D-22102017-1024x500.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"500\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/GBPUSD-D-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10251\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/GBPUSD-D-22102017-1024x500.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"500\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/AUDUSD-D-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10249\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/AUDUSD-D-22102017-1024x500.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"500\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/NZDUSD-D-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10252\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/NZDUSD-D-22102017-1024x500.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"500\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCAD-D-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10253\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCAD-D-22102017-1024x500.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"500\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCHF-D-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10254\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCHF-D-22102017-1024x500.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"500\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDJPY-D-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10255\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDJPY-D-22102017-1024x500.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"500\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.4: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:\r\n\r\n</u>Only two pieces of upcoming economic data interests me this week.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>CAD:</u></strong><u> BOC RATE STATEMENT &amp; PRESS CONFERENCE</u>.\r\n\r\nWednesday should be a very interesting day for the CAD currency.\r\n\r\nStephen Poloz, governor of the BOC has been true to his word and maintained credibility with the markets by doing what he said he was going to do.\r\n\r\nI expected a lot of “Transitory” to be used during the Press Conference. I would be astonished if he raised rates at the moment, however, I would be looking very closely to hear his views on a possible hike before the end of 2017.\r\n\r\nScotiaBank still believe that a hike is on the cards before the end of 2017. If their predictions are as good as the service in the local branches I would take this analysis with a pinch of salt!! Being fair, they are not too far away on their FX analysis, but there is always a first time to be well off!!\r\n\r\nI am currently SHORT the USD/CAD. Yes, I am that trader on the COT report!!\r\n\r\nI still expect Poloz to remain with hawkish undertones to his statement. He cannot, turn around after two rate increases and turn dovish. Mark Carney would without a second thought, but Poloz is cut with a different cloth.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>EUR:</u></strong><u> ECB RATE DECISION &amp; PRESS CONFERENCE.</u>\r\n\r\nFinally,\r\n\r\nMario Draghi gets to have his day on announcing the ECB future monetary policy to take the markets through 2018 and beyond.\r\n\r\nWill Draghi and the ECB pull it off? The want to start back on the road to normalization very slowly without the markets pricing everything ion from day one and destroying the EURO.\r\n\r\nGiven his past failures of being able to deliver the content and have the market reaction that he wants has always been the challenge facing the ECB President.\r\n\r\nIn the past, he has not been helped by “bubble and squeak” aka Wolfgang Schauble (ex. German Fin Minister) and Jens Weidman (Head of the Bundesbank), they would continually contradict and dispute Draghi’s path forward with ECB policy. (it’s all part of the EUROPEAN <strong><u>UNION</u> </strong>approach to harmony). If they were not enough the Austrian Central Bank Governor, who, is on the ECB council, Ewald Nowotny, would also contradict and screw up the messages from Draghi!\r\n\r\nSo, to say Mario Draghi has an uphill task would be an understatement.\r\n\r\nHowever, all is NOT lost.\r\n\r\nDraghi has been cute this time around.\r\n\r\nAhead of this week’s press conference the ECB has been giving over the past two weeks what I am viewing as forward guidance.\r\n\r\nInterest rates will remain accommodative long after the ECB bond buying (asset purchase) program has ended. Low rates will be policy for an extended period of time.\r\n\r\nThe Quantitative Easing (QE) program is being “Tapered”. Currently at €60 Billion is expected to reduce and the only answers that the market seeks confirmation on are to the following questions; new amount and for how long?\r\n\r\nThe problem that Draghi has is that beyond the top layer it goes much, much deeper.\r\n\r\n28 countries in the EU (presently), with 17 of these countries inside the EUROZONE single currency.\r\n\r\nYou simply cannot have a monetary policy for 17 countries operating centrally. There is no one size fits all.\r\n\r\nTo even get close, structural reforms are required country by country to be more aligned. This is NEVER going to happen. How in the name of sanity can you compare the economies of Germany with those of Malta, Greece or Slovenia? It is just NOT possible.\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>Therefore, aggressive policies will just NOT work. Maybe the ECB blueprint of accommodative policies to infinity is something that the markets will have to get their heads around.</li>\r\n 	<li>There is NO real inflation.</li>\r\n 	<li>Unemployment is high, especially youth unemployment in too many countries.</li>\r\n 	<li>Growth may be rising but it is patchy in some areas.</li>\r\n 	<li>So much of the positivity of late has been created with a fluctuating OIL price and this is making data better than it is.</li>\r\n 	<li>Negative rates may disappear. However, using the “old school” definition of interest rate normalization, I think is a dream for the ECB and there is no reason to increase interest rates unless there are signs of inflation, which there are NOT.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThis Thursday, is a big moment for Draghi and the ECB, his words will be dissected, put back together again and then re-dissected. I was hoping that in conjunction with the FED it would be easier to see the path to trade the EUR/USD. I am not sure. My initial thoughts were to go long EUR/USD, then it changed to short EUR/USD given the ECB forward guidance and the support in the DXY to buy USD.\r\n\r\nI closed my EUR/USD last Friday for a tiny profit. I am playing a waiting game now until after the ECB. I am sticking to cross rate pairs in the interim.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.5: HOW TO PLAY THE MARKET THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\nIf I knew the answer to that question, I would NOT be sitting in front of a bank of computer screens typing away…\r\n\r\nIt goes without saying the USD leads. This week however, we have two Central Banks reporting.\r\n\r\nThe BOC and ECB for differing reasons both have the markets attention. Both are involved in potentially big moves for the FX market.\r\n\r\nAdd to this the fact that the market is twitchy over the announcement of the new FED Chairperson and the overhang of geopolitical tensions in NORTH KOREA and IRAN. Plus, we also have BREXIT and CATALONIA to work with.\r\n\r\nTHE NZD is close to being toast. This is covered in much more detail later in this blog for my PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers.\r\n\r\nBasically, I would use cross rates until we see how the USD is going to react to the news when it finally comes through.\r\n\r\nIt is so tempting to trade EUR/USD and USD/JPY but in real terms the risks are too apparent at the moment.\r\n\r\nThe USD/JPY is no longer correlated to the Nikkei – huge RISK when it corrects or the Nikkei corrects either way it is impossible to gauge timelines and what happens first.\r\n\r\nThe EUR/USD is very just range bound itself because the markets are indecisive. It is winding up for a big move and I do not think that this will happen until the ECB announcement later this week. Bear in mind, a threat of Nuclear War, senior citizens being manhandled out of polling booth, Catalan Independence and BREXIT failings, have all failed to move this pair.  The change in FED chairperson has had more of an effect but even looking deeper into this, it’s been reasonably muted when all said and done.\r\n\r\nI got suckered into EUR/USD trades last week, it took me a couple of days to exit with a small profit. I just DO NOT see the reason to go mad into anything USD related, maybe the NZD/USD exempted until the dust settles on several issues. There are plenty of other opportunities.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is my own subscriber based Forex support service that offers subscribers my suggested trade set-ups and market commentaries.\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting the HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE tab.\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT 2017 PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nLAST WEEKS PIP TOTAL: +1,112 net pips\r\nOCTOBER 2017 TO DATE:           +1,753 net pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE 2017:                    +9,159 net pips\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs on my website  <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nAlternatively, if you prefer to watch a video recording about the PREMIUM SERVICE, click the link below. You will be directed to a 40-minute webinar presentation entitled “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE”.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS ONLY:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4.1: TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>4.2: SENTIMENT CHART,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:\r\n\r\n</u><u>4.3: EXISTING CORE TRADES (PLANS &amp; STRATEGIES):</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.4: CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:\r\n</u><u>\r\n</u><u>4.5: FX BROKER NEWS with their MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FINISHING LINE:</strong><strong> </strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5.1: WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you have read in this blog and would like the chance to win a FREE SUBSCRIPTION valued at CAD$150.00, all you need to do is subscribe to my FREE NEWSLETTER (this blog), by adding your email address on my welcome page just below my cube logo at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\n<u>5.2: PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTIONS:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you’ve read in this blog and should you want to go a stage further and subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE, this can be done on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the Tab SUBSCRIBE HERE.\r\n\r\nSubscribing to the PREMIUM SERVICE is not just about receiving a larger “DRIVE THRU” blog packed with more trading supporting information, my thoughts and ideas. There is much more to a subscription than those things. Check it all out under the tab HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nAlternatively, if you prefer to watch a video recording about the PREMIUM SERVICE, click the link below. You will be directed to a 40-minute webinar presentation entitled “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE”.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n<u>5.3: CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #256 FREE NEWSLETTER\r\n22nd October 2017\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','WILL THE ECB PULL IT OFF?','','publish','open','closed','','will-ecb-pull-off','','','2017-10-21 07:36:09','2017-10-21 12:36:09','',0,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?p=10264',0,'post','',0),(10265,1,'2017-10-21 07:36:09','2017-10-21 12:36:09','&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nI began last week, carrying forward from the prior week some large negative cross rates losses. The charts prior to some poor US data were relatively constructive and I made the decision based upon my longer-term views to HEDGE four cross-rate trades. The decision to HEDGE was made primarily due to rising geopolitical tensions and headline news events that could just rip up in my face… NORTH KOREA, IRAN, CATALONIA and BREXIT.\r\n\r\nAt the beginning of the week, Monday and Tuesday, I was playing a waiting and watching game. Now HEDGED my losses were fixed and I set up what I call the “OUT” trade based on revised chart analysis. The market was slow and just trying to extract a few pips a day was difficult as we were range bound. I was Tweeting and writing to my subscribers that for me at the current time it was all about patience. I had to let the markets consolidate.\r\n\r\nWednesday I was really pist off as I let a few pips drift by.\r\n\r\nThen overnight Wednesday/Thursday early morning it all kicked off. My PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers were already positioned SHORT the NZD as this was one of my CORE POSITIONS for some time.\r\n\r\nThe coalition announcement was just what the doctor ordered. At one stage I had almost 30 LIVE trades to deal with and fresh trades triggered what felt like every two or three minutes as the Kiwi got crushed. At 2:30AM last Thursday I was up and at my screens. The following 4-5 hours reminded me why I enjoy trading so much. I took profits off the table, banked pips, moved stops to protect $$$, increased limits and removed some other trades that were just part of the forest stopping me from seeing the wood on the trees I wanted to follow. It was hectic, and, at times frantic whilst I gathered my thoughts and put my TRADING PLAN which was thought through from the night before into action.\r\n\r\nTwo of the HEDGES have been exited in profit by 132 additional pips. Of the remaining HEDGES, one is on the way to its exit and the other has yet to move considerably in my chosen “OUT” direction, but as my trading position is fixed; I can wait and focus elsewhere first.\r\n\r\nThe great news is that from my trading perspective the New Zealand government coalition is NZD negative and the trade has only just begun.\r\n\r\nSo, what I thought was going to be one of the most boring weeks of trading since I started was exciting and quite profitable.\r\n\r\nTo put the week in perspective. The prior week 160 net pips were added. Last week the PREMIUM SERVICE added an additional net pip total of +1,112 pips, making the total for 2017 +9,159 pips.\r\n\r\nOn June 25th, 2017, just after Breda and I had completed our trip to Australia and New Zealand, which followed our cross-country house move into Nova Scotia, the pip total stood at 2,113 pips.\r\n\r\nThe pip gathering since the start of July this year has been relentless, but at the same time there have been days of inactivity waiting for trades and being patient.\r\n\r\nI was going to place this next paragraph about trading with THE PREMIUM SERVICE at the end of the blog but it makes sense to include it here: -\r\n\r\nMy annual target of 10,000 pips is in sight, however, nothing can be taken for granted and given that my position sizing this year has been smaller due to the markets have greater RISK attached my income from trading will be lower this year… but, there should be an income barring any disasters in the run up to the year end.\r\n\r\nMy point here as I mention every year is that those of you who trade with smaller account sizes can still make some money from trading Forex.\r\n\r\nSingle MINI LOT trades                                 = USD$1.00 each\r\nPREMIUM SERVICE Annual target               = 10,000 pips\r\nAnticipated Gross Income                            = USD$10,000 (10,000 pips x USD$1)\r\n\r\nLess PREMIUM SERVICE\r\nAnnual subscription                                       = USD$1,000 (equivalent)\r\n\r\nNET TRADING INCOME                               = USD$9,000\r\n\r\nWorking on the 50% rule\r\nShould you can only capture:\r\n50% of my suggested trades\r\n50% of my entries on time\r\n50% of my exits on time\r\nYou could still generate a NET INCOME\r\nafter subscription                                            of USD$4,0000\r\n\r\nObviously, you would need in the first year to open and adequately fund a broker account to meet the trading criteria you have set yourself. I would say to trade MINI LOT trades you would require a minimum of a USD$6,000 account for you first year after one year you should be able to trade and operate your account on trading income and then as the year’s progress increase your trading size to say 2 or 3 MINI LOTS but at the same time you must remember increased POSITION SIZES = INCREASED RISK.\r\n\r\nRISK MANAGEMENT is crucial to FX trading. Without it you fail.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\"><strong>2. THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></p>\r\n<strong>\r\n\r\n</strong><u>2.1: LOOKING BACK AT LAST WEEK’S NEWS.</u>\r\n\r\nHere is what tickled my fancy in the news last week as a currency trader.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>NZD</u></strong><u>: GOVERNMENT COALITION ANNOUNCEMENT.\r\n\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n26 days following the New Zealand elections, Jacinda Ardern leader of the Labour Party became the country’s latest Prime Minister.\r\n\r\nThere was a split vote almost a month ago and the New Zealand First Party leader, Winston Peters in dramatic form announced that his populist party would throw its support in a coalition with Labour. Along with the “greens” the NZ First and Labour will be the coalition government.\r\n\r\nIt was pure theatre as, neither incumbent Prime Minister Bill English, nor Jacinda Adern knew which way Winston Peters was going move.\r\n\r\nThis result and the coalition is a total unknown and the markets would have preferred a Bill English National Party led coalition.\r\n\r\nThis move should NOT be underestimated, as it is mammoth. It was a decision for change involving Housing, Immigration, reducing NZ poverty and Foreign Investment in property. These are structural economic changes.\r\n\r\nOn the news, the NZD/USD was crushed lower by 160 pips, the EUR/NZD and GBP/USD moved up by over 400 pips each and the antipodean cross AUD/NZD moved up by over 270 pips.\r\n\r\nThese moves were stellar and over the coming sessions I see these moves consolidating. There should be plenty of pips available into the end of the year.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP:</u></strong><u> CPi, CARNEY, AVERAGE EARNINGS, RETAIL SALES &amp; BREXIT.</u>\r\n\r\nIt was an action-packed week for sterling.\r\n\r\nThe week started well with CPI which was in line with expectations at 3% this is basically what is fueling the BOE accountants to raise rates as it is a full 1% above the BOE target.\r\n\r\nCarney presented in front of a House of Commons committee on inflation and was dovish but saying that interest rates would probably rise, but it would be more than likely reading between the “yada yada” a one and done scenario. He saw inflation stopping around 3% and cable sold off as a result. There was nothing new in what Carney said so the market reaction was as usual weird.\r\n\r\nAverage earnings came in a 2.2%. The difference between earnings and inflation at 0.8% is hardly the climate in which to raise rates in my opinion. Nevertheless, it looks a done deal with an 80% market expectation that UK interest rates will move higher in November.\r\n\r\nJust to spice things up Retail Sales were a miss. In fact, it was a bloody awful number -0.8% versus an expectation of -0.1%. Cable sold off and then in usual cable style during the day recovered most of its losses.\r\n\r\nIn the middle of all the economic data the BREXIT roadshow stumbled along. Theresa May and David Davis met with Michel Barnier and although a cover up the cracks press release from both parties said that it was a beneficial meeting, the two-year Article 50 transition period extension that Prime Minister May requested did not appear as a resolution from the meeting, so for now at least the March 2019 deadline remains, unreal as it is!\r\n\r\nSo, the $64,000 question is how do you trade cable?\r\n\r\nA few months ago, I think it was HSBC who had a call that matched my own thoughts which was, GBP/USD 1.2000 and EUR/GBP to parity. They have since changed their minds on this call on the basis that originally, they believed that the economy would drive cable and not the BOE. Of late, the BOE is the driver of cable.\r\n\r\nHowever, I am still not so sure that the 1.2000 and parity calls are still the correct ones.\r\n\r\nTo raise rates as I have repeatedly stated during so much uncertainty hanging over the UK never mind the 3% inflation rate is just crazy in my opinion. The fact that earnings are still lagging by 0.8% must weigh in somewhere one would think.\r\n\r\nIt is now widely reported that the BREXIT deal cannot be struck by March 2019 and a “NO DEAL” scenario is becoming more and more likely. I have said from the get go 2 years to exit was an unreal time-scale and I am now vindicated with my prediction and thought process from months ago.\r\n\r\nBack to FX…\r\n\r\nI still do NOT know what way to trade cable. The crosses are now mixed following the New Zealand news. GBP/NZD is pressing higher and the AUD/NZD is also pressing higher which, places pressure on the GBP/AUD to move lower.\r\n\r\nThe EUR/GBP is moving higher back towards 0.9000 once again, however, it appears that it is cool and trendy to short this pair. I do NOT agree with the sheep mentality here and think that this may be the pair to focus on rather than GBP/USD.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>EUR:</u></strong><u> CATALONIA.</u>\r\n\r\nYou couldn’t make this stuff up.\r\n\r\nThursday last week was the deadline for Catalonia to declare independence. The Catalan president Carles Puidegemont said he wanted to talk dirty with Rahoy, but the Prime minister basically said bollocks and triggered the Spanish government’s Article 155, which takes power away from Catalonia.\r\n\r\nWhat next?\r\n\r\nHere’s a taster for what’s ahead. The Catalan government allegedly instructed supporters of independence to go to SABADELL and LA CAIXA banks and take as much cash as they could out of the ATM machines. Trying to create a “RUN” on the banks as these two have announced moving their headquarters out of Catalonia because of the uncertainty.\r\n\r\nOn all the Catalonian shenanigans the EUR/USD fell a few pips and then regained almost all of them back again. This pair is Teflon coated.\r\n\r\nHow the hell do you trade this pair?\r\n\r\nThe ECB eagerly awaited press conference is due this coming Thursday maybe all will be revealed then from the words of wisdom from Mario Draghi. Although, as I wrote last week the ECB has given out detailed forward guidance already on their intentions, there are only a few blanks left to fill. Am I going crazy?\r\n\r\nThe threat of nuclear war from the little rocket man does bugger all to move markets, so the potential of the Spanish economy going down the tubes is like a pimple on the back of an elephant.\r\n\r\nThe Spanish / Catalonia crisis will rumble on for weeks….\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>CAD:</u></strong><u> RETAIL SALES &amp; CPi.</u>\r\n\r\nShocking numbers. Retail Sales came through at -0.3%, the market was expecting 0.5%. CPi missed 0.2% monthly versus 0.3% and year to date 1.6% versus 1.7%.\r\n\r\nThis week on Wednesday, the BOC meets. I am still thinking that the BOC will raise before the year end but it looks very doubtful that a rate increase will be announced this week.\r\n\r\nExpect the word “TRANSITORY” to be used a few times!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD</u></strong><u>: JANET YELLEN’S REPLACEMENT.</u>\r\n\r\nWho is it going to be?\r\n\r\nTake your pick.\r\n\r\nJANET YELLEN\r\n\r\nGARY COHN\r\n\r\nJEROME POWELL\r\n\r\nKEVIN WARSH\r\n\r\nJOHN TAYLOR\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nDONALD TRUMP’S opinions in my opinion, are usually based on the “Last Man Standing” approach. The last person he speaks with is usually just wonderful, much better than the person a day earlier who was at that time the best one so far.\r\n\r\nThis has taken up a lot of TV time and newspaper column inches and social media chatter. I can speculate here until the cows come home and even with a deadline in place which is just around the corner, I could still be speculating as my wife and I sit down to our Christmas dinner.\r\n\r\nI take the view that the FED chairperson can influence the markets but he or she does rule over the institution single handedly. There are civil servant types in place to stop change. The FED chair only has limited scope in my opinion. The institution is very long standing and formats and structures are in place to stop people getting carried away with power going to their head.\r\n\r\nTRUMP’s interview will be along the lines of keep interest rates low and say that you want to make America great again and you have the job. That is how simplistic I think TRUMP believes the job to be…. frightening, very scary stuff.\r\n\r\nWe are being told that JEROME POWELL and JOHN TAYLOR are the two front-runners and that a decision will be announced within the next 10 days prior to TRUMP jetting with Melania to Asia on a goodwill visit to calm tensions in the area…yeah right tensions reduced my arse!\r\n\r\nWhat I can tell you in this blog is that the name of Janet Yellen’s replacement appears to have a greater impact on the USD (DXY) than the threat of a nuclear warhead from North Korea…. go figure that one out!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2: LOOKING AHEAD TO THIS COMING WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n2.2.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ECON-DATA-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10237\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ECON-DATA-22102017-1024x713.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"713\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.2: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/T-CHART-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10238\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/T-CHART-22102017-1024x839.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"839\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.3: USD – TRADING CHARTS and COMMENTARIES: </u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>EUR/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/EURUSD-D-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10250\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/EURUSD-D-22102017-1024x500.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"500\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/GBPUSD-D-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10251\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/GBPUSD-D-22102017-1024x500.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"500\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/AUDUSD-D-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10249\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/AUDUSD-D-22102017-1024x500.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"500\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/NZDUSD-D-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10252\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/NZDUSD-D-22102017-1024x500.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"500\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCAD-D-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10253\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCAD-D-22102017-1024x500.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"500\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCHF-D-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10254\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCHF-D-22102017-1024x500.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"500\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDJPY-D-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10255\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDJPY-D-22102017-1024x500.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"500\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.4: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:\r\n\r\n</u>Only two pieces of upcoming economic data interests me this week.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>CAD:</u></strong><u> BOC RATE STATEMENT &amp; PRESS CONFERENCE</u>.\r\n\r\nWednesday should be a very interesting day for the CAD currency.\r\n\r\nStephen Poloz, governor of the BOC has been true to his word and maintained credibility with the markets by doing what he said he was going to do.\r\n\r\nI expected a lot of “Transitory” to be used during the Press Conference. I would be astonished if he raised rates at the moment, however, I would be looking very closely to hear his views on a possible hike before the end of 2017.\r\n\r\nScotiaBank still believe that a hike is on the cards before the end of 2017. If their predictions are as good as the service in the local branches I would take this analysis with a pinch of salt!! Being fair, they are not too far away on their FX analysis, but there is always a first time to be well off!!\r\n\r\nI am currently SHORT the USD/CAD. Yes, I am that trader on the COT report!!\r\n\r\nI still expect Poloz to remain with hawkish undertones to his statement. He cannot, turn around after two rate increases and turn dovish. Mark Carney would without a second thought, but Poloz is cut with a different cloth.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>EUR:</u></strong><u> ECB RATE DECISION &amp; PRESS CONFERENCE.</u>\r\n\r\nFinally,\r\n\r\nMario Draghi gets to have his day on announcing the ECB future monetary policy to take the markets through 2018 and beyond.\r\n\r\nWill Draghi and the ECB pull it off? The want to start back on the road to normalization very slowly without the markets pricing everything ion from day one and destroying the EURO.\r\n\r\nGiven his past failures of being able to deliver the content and have the market reaction that he wants has always been the challenge facing the ECB President.\r\n\r\nIn the past, he has not been helped by “bubble and squeak” aka Wolfgang Schauble (ex. German Fin Minister) and Jens Weidman (Head of the Bundesbank), they would continually contradict and dispute Draghi’s path forward with ECB policy. (it’s all part of the EUROPEAN <strong><u>UNION</u> </strong>approach to harmony). If they were not enough the Austrian Central Bank Governor, who, is on the ECB council, Ewald Nowotny, would also contradict and screw up the messages from Draghi!\r\n\r\nSo, to say Mario Draghi has an uphill task would be an understatement.\r\n\r\nHowever, all is NOT lost.\r\n\r\nDraghi has been cute this time around.\r\n\r\nAhead of this week’s press conference the ECB has been giving over the past two weeks what I am viewing as forward guidance.\r\n\r\nInterest rates will remain accommodative long after the ECB bond buying (asset purchase) program has ended. Low rates will be policy for an extended period of time.\r\n\r\nThe Quantitative Easing (QE) program is being “Tapered”. Currently at €60 Billion is expected to reduce and the only answers that the market seeks confirmation on are to the following questions; new amount and for how long?\r\n\r\nThe problem that Draghi has is that beyond the top layer it goes much, much deeper.\r\n\r\n28 countries in the EU (presently), with 17 of these countries inside the EUROZONE single currency.\r\n\r\nYou simply cannot have a monetary policy for 17 countries operating centrally. There is no one size fits all.\r\n\r\nTo even get close, structural reforms are required country by country to be more aligned. This is NEVER going to happen. How in the name of sanity can you compare the economies of Germany with those of Malta, Greece or Slovenia? It is just NOT possible.\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>Therefore, aggressive policies will just NOT work. Maybe the ECB blueprint of accommodative policies to infinity is something that the markets will have to get their heads around.</li>\r\n 	<li>There is NO real inflation.</li>\r\n 	<li>Unemployment is high, especially youth unemployment in too many countries.</li>\r\n 	<li>Growth may be rising but it is patchy in some areas.</li>\r\n 	<li>So much of the positivity of late has been created with a fluctuating OIL price and this is making data better than it is.</li>\r\n 	<li>Negative rates may disappear. However, using the “old school” definition of interest rate normalization, I think is a dream for the ECB and there is no reason to increase interest rates unless there are signs of inflation, which there are NOT.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThis Thursday, is a big moment for Draghi and the ECB, his words will be dissected, put back together again and then re-dissected. I was hoping that in conjunction with the FED it would be easier to see the path to trade the EUR/USD. I am not sure. My initial thoughts were to go long EUR/USD, then it changed to short EUR/USD given the ECB forward guidance and the support in the DXY to buy USD.\r\n\r\nI closed my EUR/USD last Friday for a tiny profit. I am playing a waiting game now until after the ECB. I am sticking to cross rate pairs in the interim.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.5: HOW TO PLAY THE MARKET THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\nIf I knew the answer to that question, I would NOT be sitting in front of a bank of computer screens typing away…\r\n\r\nIt goes without saying the USD leads. This week however, we have two Central Banks reporting.\r\n\r\nThe BOC and ECB for differing reasons both have the markets attention. Both are involved in potentially big moves for the FX market.\r\n\r\nAdd to this the fact that the market is twitchy over the announcement of the new FED Chairperson and the overhang of geopolitical tensions in NORTH KOREA and IRAN. Plus, we also have BREXIT and CATALONIA to work with.\r\n\r\nTHE NZD is close to being toast. This is covered in much more detail later in this blog for my PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers.\r\n\r\nBasically, I would use cross rates until we see how the USD is going to react to the news when it finally comes through.\r\n\r\nIt is so tempting to trade EUR/USD and USD/JPY but in real terms the risks are too apparent at the moment.\r\n\r\nThe USD/JPY is no longer correlated to the Nikkei – huge RISK when it corrects or the Nikkei corrects either way it is impossible to gauge timelines and what happens first.\r\n\r\nThe EUR/USD is very just range bound itself because the markets are indecisive. It is winding up for a big move and I do not think that this will happen until the ECB announcement later this week. Bear in mind, a threat of Nuclear War, senior citizens being manhandled out of polling booth, Catalan Independence and BREXIT failings, have all failed to move this pair.  The change in FED chairperson has had more of an effect but even looking deeper into this, it’s been reasonably muted when all said and done.\r\n\r\nI got suckered into EUR/USD trades last week, it took me a couple of days to exit with a small profit. I just DO NOT see the reason to go mad into anything USD related, maybe the NZD/USD exempted until the dust settles on several issues. There are plenty of other opportunities.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is my own subscriber based Forex support service that offers subscribers my suggested trade set-ups and market commentaries.\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting the HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE tab.\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT 2017 PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nLAST WEEKS PIP TOTAL: +1,112 net pips\r\nOCTOBER 2017 TO DATE:           +1,753 net pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE 2017:                    +9,159 net pips\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs on my website  <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nAlternatively, if you prefer to watch a video recording about the PREMIUM SERVICE, click the link below. You will be directed to a 40-minute webinar presentation entitled “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE”.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS ONLY:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4.1: TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>4.2: SENTIMENT CHART,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:\r\n\r\n</u><u>4.3: EXISTING CORE TRADES (PLANS &amp; STRATEGIES):</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.4: CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:\r\n</u><u>\r\n</u><u>4.5: FX BROKER NEWS with their MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FINISHING LINE:</strong><strong> </strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5.1: WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you have read in this blog and would like the chance to win a FREE SUBSCRIPTION valued at CAD$150.00, all you need to do is subscribe to my FREE NEWSLETTER (this blog), by adding your email address on my welcome page just below my cube logo at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\n<u>5.2: PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTIONS:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you’ve read in this blog and should you want to go a stage further and subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE, this can be done on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the Tab SUBSCRIBE HERE.\r\n\r\nSubscribing to the PREMIUM SERVICE is not just about receiving a larger “DRIVE THRU” blog packed with more trading supporting information, my thoughts and ideas. There is much more to a subscription than those things. Check it all out under the tab HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nAlternatively, if you prefer to watch a video recording about the PREMIUM SERVICE, click the link below. You will be directed to a 40-minute webinar presentation entitled “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE”.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n<u>5.3: CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #256 FREE NEWSLETTER\r\n22nd October 2017\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','WILL THE ECB PULL 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10:38:55','',10289,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCAD-D-29102017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(10286,1,'2017-10-28 05:17:44','2017-10-28 10:17:44','','USDCHF D 29102017','','inherit','open','closed','','usdchf-d-29102017','','','2017-10-28 05:39:04','2017-10-28 10:39:04','',10289,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCHF-D-29102017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(10287,1,'2017-10-28 05:17:51','2017-10-28 10:17:51','','USDJPY D 29102017','','inherit','open','closed','','usdjpy-d-29102017','','','2017-10-28 05:39:21','2017-10-28 10:39:21','',10289,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDJPY-D-29102017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(11033,1,'2018-02-28 15:47:19','0000-00-00 00:00:00','','Auto Draft','','auto-draft','open','closed','','','','','2018-02-28 15:47:19','0000-00-00 00:00:00','',0,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?p=11033',0,'post','',0),(10401,1,'2017-11-17 17:07:29','2017-11-17 22:07:29','','ECON DATA 19112017','','inherit','open','closed','','econ-data-19112017','','','2017-11-18 05:39:45','2017-11-18 10:39:45','',10420,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/ECON-DATA-19112017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(10402,1,'2017-11-17 17:07:34','2017-11-17 22:07:34','','TCHART 19112017','','inherit','open','closed','','tchart-19112017','','','2017-11-18 05:40:12','2017-11-18 10:40:12','',10420,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/TCHART-19112017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(10403,1,'2017-11-17 17:07:38','2017-11-17 22:07:38','','SENTIMENT 19112017','','inherit','open','closed','','sentiment-19112017','','','2017-11-18 05:46:06','2017-11-18 10:46:06','',10420,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/SENTIMENT-19112017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(10413,1,'2017-11-17 17:10:42','2017-11-17 22:10:42','','AUDUSD D 19112017','','inherit','open','closed','','audusd-d-19112017','','','2017-11-18 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10:42:17','',10420,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/NZDUSD-D-19112017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(10417,1,'2017-11-17 17:10:58','2017-11-17 22:10:58','','USDCAD D 19112017','','inherit','open','closed','','usdcad-d-19112017','','','2017-11-18 05:42:43','2017-11-18 10:42:43','',10420,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/USDCAD-D-19112017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(10418,1,'2017-11-17 17:11:00','2017-11-17 22:11:00','','USDCHF D 19112017','','inherit','open','closed','','usdchf-d-19112017','','','2017-11-18 05:43:04','2017-11-18 10:43:04','',10420,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/USDCHF-D-19112017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(10419,1,'2017-11-17 17:11:03','2017-11-17 22:11:03','','USDJPY D 19112017','','inherit','open','closed','','usdjpy-d-19112017','','','2017-11-18 05:43:28','2017-11-18 10:43:28','',10420,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/USDJPY-D-19112017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(10420,1,'2017-11-18 05:49:16','2017-11-18 10:49:16','<strong>\r\n</strong>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nWelcome.\r\n\r\nThis week’s DRIVE THRU takes on a new format. I am not changing for changing sake, I am responding to comments. The main purpose of this blog is to formally communicate with my PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers, but it does have a dual purpose. The second purpose is to inform and hopefully attract serious FX traders to become new PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers. It is always a balance and for about 4 years now, I keep tweaking the content. I hope that you like this revision. Given my history in this regard it will NOT be the last.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nLast week had it all; boredom, excitement, annoyance, frustration, surprise plus profits and losses and several shots of Jack Daniels… that was just Tuesday. I think I read somewhere that it was the strongest / biggest single day rally in the USD for years.\r\n\r\nIt certainly shook the markets for those playing the EUR/USD (Head and Shoulders) / DXY (Inverted Head and Shoulders). Money flows at the moment are driving these huge moves. The NIKKEI had a 20% move higher in a couple of months. Fund managers are looking for value as we head into the year end, monies are moving to Europe away from Japan etc.… there is a lot going on and currencies are being used in huge volumes to facilitate a lot of these moves.\r\n\r\nOvernight last Thursday into Friday morning the PREMIUM SERVICE was blasted with over 750 pips of profit when my core short positions across the AUD and NZD drilled home pips across several trades.\r\n\r\nFor me last week was a two-day trading week… All that wasted time for the other days sitting in front of screens!!\r\n\r\nIt has been quite some time since I have written “RISK OFF” in my blog but we are sort of there as we are bouncing around in the US equity markets. It is a battle between the “BUY THE DIP” mentality and market bears. Is the most hated rally ever finally being sold? Not sure but a pullback of sorts, and its minimal in the grand scheme of things is happening.\r\n\r\nEnough of that…\r\n\r\nOver the past month or so I have been sampling my competition to the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\nThere are so many chart analysts out there, but that is all they do. They look backwards and tell what patterns were formed and why, but there is very little out there who look forward and trade, in fact I doubt very many of them have skin in the market.\r\n\r\nI have looked across the spectrum; costly to cheap and well-known to unknown.\r\nI followed big names who have tens of thousands of followers on twitter, as well as specific trade set up providers and analysts from brokers. In total about 10 names/ businesses, here is a sample of what I came across. It’s not totally inclusive as some were just not worth the print!\r\n\r\n<strong><u>TV ANAYLST WITH OWN FX SUPPORT BUSINESS (UK BASED)</u></strong>: Is a regular guest on BNN, CNBC and BLOOMBERG, huge on Twitter. In my opinion, he is a gambler. He puts trades up a minute or two before high beta news events. It\'s a 50-50 guess. You hear about the good ones on Twitter and the failures disappear. The service covers all markets, I am just Forex, so a lot of what I received was great for correlations but nothing revolutionary.  I made money but the cost was double what I charge. Lots of supporting information, not sure where its cut and pasted from. Response time to questions poor.\r\n\r\nIt was a high cost, I made money but the gambling trades are stupid in my opinion.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>TV ANAYLST WITH OWN FX SUPPORT BUSINESS (US BASED): </u></strong>Another, is so fast and impossible to follow on a webinar and the amount of assumptions made are incredible. This service provider is a regular on CNBC. All the trades lost money. Analysis is good but the implementation of trades a joke. It was all over the map for me, no discipline, no structure. The chat room was frankly dangerous, no management, inexperienced traders being exposed to all sorts of crap. Is it any wonder FX gets a bad name? I would close that down right now.\r\n\r\nThere are so many cost options, so much to take in, maybe something I did NOT buy worked but I doubt it. I am confused about the whole package options and I blame this service for my migraine during the week. Response time to questions excellent.\r\n\r\nCannot possibly trade LIVE trades. Very well-known must live off huge fee incomes from webinars, on-line books, algorithm sales (they don\'t work either) and TV appearance fees.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>BROKER ANALYST (UK BASED):</u></strong> This person from a large Broker, also on Business TV a fair bit, I respect as a chart analyst, but the LIVE trading is a fecking joke. He simply never trades. It’s all theory. No skin in the game.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>TRADES SERVICE PROVIDER (HONG KONG BASED):</u></strong><strong>  </strong>Four times more expensive than the PREMIUM SERVICE no supporting information for trades, poor response times and trades were all 10 or 15 pip scalps that would NOT cover the cost of the subscription unless you were trading 4/5 standard lots a time. Not my target audience and too high RISK for most people. I just about broke even. Not my cup of tea. Now they are SPAMMING me… Jesus, Mary and Joseph!!\r\n\r\n<strong><u>SUMMARY:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nI have faults, just ask my wife! Trading in the FX market I always have real skin in the market. I feel the trades. I trade without emotion (most times) because I manage RISK. I do not have hundreds of subscribers, no way near. I have a solid group of serious FX traders from around the globe and two syndicates through spokespeople that adds about 20 additional traders into the mix. I keep it simple and I try my best to provide a personal and prompt service. I, the PREMIUM SERVICE am looking for serious traders who want to trade, not have to trade, I hope that makes sense.\r\n\r\nTo do what I do, I can’t have more than 50 subscribers. There are still a few spaces left.\r\n\r\nI may chop ‘n change trades around to fit the market conditions, which can be difficult to follow with everyone being in different time zones, but that is trading. I trade to make $$$ not to lose $$$.\r\n\r\nI was up at 3.30AM on a couple of mornings last week playing with trades. That is the reality of trading in the FX market, its open from Sunday at 5PM EST and closes the following Friday at 5PM EST. I am NOT interested in “that trade was closed whilst I was asleep!” If you are a serious trader you have little sleep between Sunday and Friday each week.\r\n\r\nBack on track…\r\n\r\nAt the end of the day from my research, did I find anything I want to add to the PREMIUM SERVICE?\r\n\r\nThere are a couple of things I will introduce moving forward but overall, I feel good about the research I provide it is mostly brief and to the point. Those services that provide lots of commentary, I strongly suspect DO NOT TRADE. I struggle for hours as it is now and I consider myself damn good at time management.\r\n\r\nFinally,\r\n\r\nThere will be no blog next weekend, we have friends flying in from the UK. The opportunities to trade will be slim. Plus, zero time for completing research and finding the 10 hours or so required to complete the blog from start to finish will just not be there. So, it is a see you in two weeks after this week’s review.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>LOOKING AHEAD THIS COMING WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\nTHIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/ECON-DATA-19112017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10401\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/ECON-DATA-19112017-1024x884.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"884\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>USD MAJORS – SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS with BIAS:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/TCHART-19112017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-10402\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/TCHART-19112017.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1014\" height=\"898\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>USD MAJORS – TRADING CHARTS: </u>\r\n\r\nMore often than not I will use DAILY CHARTS for my analysis.\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>EUR/USD:\r\n\r\nOverall recent data from the EUROZONE has been good. We have seen a pullback from the recent 1.1860 highs. RSi (Relative Strength Indicator) is moving higher and given the better data, the bulls are trying to regain control once again. I think that we need to see a break higher above 1.1880 (BLACK LINE) for the bulls to be back in control.\r\n\r\nSupport is good circa. 1.1660 and on the chart below (PURPLE LINE) and more recently at 1.1750 (BURGUNDY LINE).\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/EURUSD-D-19112017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10414\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/EURUSD-D-19112017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\nThe recent weakening USD has pulled cable higher. I am however always thinking that this pair is one news item away from a 100-pip fall and it could happen at any time.\r\n\r\nThe chart below shows a bullish set of candles, which completely goes against my FUNDAMENTAL views regarding this pair. Price was rejected very strongly at 1.3260 last Friday. That rejection stopped me out of GBP/NZD and GBP/AUD longs at the time… bugger.\r\n\r\nI think that we range trade with this pair between the two Fibonacci levels of 23.6% at 1.3170 and 38% at 1.3260.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/GBPUSD-D-19112017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10415\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/GBPUSD-D-19112017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\nThis pair is under pressure as you can clearly see from the chart below. We were held up at 61.8% Fibonacci level last Friday. The spike from this low will allow traders such as me through the PREMIUM SERVICE to re-load short trades this week. The bigger the spike the better… bring it on.\r\n\r\nWe are getting close to 30 level on the RSi therefore, a couple of re-set trading sessions would suit me fine!!\r\n\r\nThere are several potential trading patterns one can use on the pair, for now I am running with a channel set up as this pair seems to like channels.\r\n\r\nAs long as the RBA remains neutral I cannot see this pair moving higher in the near term.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/AUDUSD-D-19112017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10413\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/AUDUSD-D-19112017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\nWe are getting closer to a 30 reading on the RSi. We can of course drop below but I am hoping for a spike to allow me to re-load PREMIUM SERVICE short trades.\r\n\r\nThe political uncertainty in New Zealand is driving this pair lower and for the foreseeable future I see no change in this connection.\r\n\r\nPREMIUM SERVICE subscribers know what my target is to the downside with this pair, the candlestick pattern does look very bearish to me.\r\n\r\nBulls if there are any, will not be back in control of this pair unless we break back above 0.7000, which, seems an awfully long way away at the moment when one looks at current pricing.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/NZDUSD-D-19112017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10416\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/NZDUSD-D-19112017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\nBugger…\r\n\r\nI really want this pair above 1.2900 to short. After last Friday’s in line inflation print, the pair spiked to the 61.8% Fibonacci level and then pulled back.\r\n\r\nThe upward sloping channel is basically still intact on the chart below, so I still have some hope for now. Who am I kidding? This pair is bound to about turn and break through the trend line support and leave me behind!!\r\n\r\nWe have Retail Sales data this week. Does this mean that I may have to wait another week for my short entry?\r\n\r\nBelow 1.2725 would make me have to re-think my PLAN.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/USDCAD-D-19112017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10417\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/USDCAD-D-19112017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\nAm I dreaming with the pennant / flag patterns on the cart below? It is rather an awkward shape. The measured moves play to 1.0460 (BURGUNDY) and 1.0175 (BLACK).\r\n\r\nI am struggling to know what to do with this pair. The PREMIUM SERVICE has a small long trade, which is out of the money at the moment. I am not sure what to do with this pair, but I do know that longer-term I want to be long.\r\n\r\nI am working on the fact we are in a range of 0.9840 to a.0040.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/USDCHF-D-19112017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10418\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/USDCHF-D-19112017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\nBecause I am stupid I let 60 pips of profit disappear with this pair last Friday… argh!!\r\n\r\nRISK sentiment is ruling this pair at the moment as the NIKKEI sells off and uncertainty persists in Washington. Add into the mix treasury yields. Now ask me why did I give up my short so cheaply? Because I am stupid!!\r\n\r\nThis pair has 108.00 written all over it in my opinion. The 200 DAY SMA comes in around 111.80, which was original take profit level, but a break below here would NOT surprise me and a test of 110.00, the 61.8% Fibonacci level would seem reasonable to me for the shorter term.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/USDJPY-D-19112017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10419\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/USDJPY-D-19112017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:</u>\r\n\r\nMost of the economic data releases this week are related to speeches by Central Bank leaders. Therefore, it is reactionary news, which of late I have not enjoyed much as it has been lacking conviction or momentum. The recent exceptions being the BOE Super Thursday and Draghi’s ECB Press Conference. There was certainly direction following these, but the rest… not my cup of tea.\r\n\r\nOf what remains, the following short list interests me: -\r\n\r\n<strong><u>AUD:</u></strong><u> MONETARY POLICY MEETING MINUTES</u>.\r\n\r\nThese minutes surely to God cannot be as much of a snooze fest as the original statement release. It passed basically without a flicker. Philip Lowe also speaks about 12 hours after the minutes are published.\r\n\r\nThe RBA are neutral. It will be interesting to see if any timescales on policy were discussed plus any inklings vis-a-vis housing prices in the Australian market.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>\r\nUSD:</u></strong><u> FOMC MEETING MINUTES.</u>\r\n\r\nIt’s not about this year, 2017 that has me including this item in this section, it is about future discussions into 2018. At the end of the day with a new FED chair moving in early next year, I am not expecting future policies to be changed or placed on hold. Central Banks are well oiled dinosaurs that move so slowly and like massive oil tankers when a change of policy is made in the sense that it takes oil tankers 5/6 miles to turnabout.\r\n\r\nRate hikes into 2018 is what will catch the eye in this release.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>CAD:</u></strong><u> CORE RETAIL SALES.</u>\r\n\r\nI am looking to short the USD/CAD and add to my CORE SHORT POSITION. Therefore, I want the poor data to continue to give me the best entry level possible. The closer to 1.3000 the better…. I am waiting.\r\n\r\nBeing realistic however, last month’s reading was a dismal negative 0.7%. I would be astonished if a negative print was repeated in the run up months to Christmas.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>HOW TO PLAY THE MARKET THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\nPersonally, I believe that we are in a consolidation period once again. Last week the USD was whacked and the commodity currencies were taken to the woodshed.\r\n\r\nThe majors and the cross rates in my opinion need to re-set. There were some massive moves over the past week. EUR/USD +800 pips, GBP/NZD about +600 pips or so and GBP/AUD about +500 pips.\r\n\r\nThe Monthly ATR (Average True Range) GBP/AUD is just under 1,000 pips so when you consider that 500 pips was the range last week, we need to consolidate the moves. Not that we have to consolidate with the cross-rate pairs, they are very volatile but you have to be aware of these facts into this week.\r\n\r\nWe are light on true economic data this week and therefore we will be at the will of the news wires… oh shit I can hear you saying.\r\n\r\nYes regretfully, it will be the Senate and the numbers of GOP senate members that will either vote yes or no on the TRUMP TAX REFUND. From what I can see it’s no longer tax reform, that is far too radical for dysfunctional politicians to stomach.\r\n\r\nBREXIT will feature as progress really needs to be established prior to the end of the year. We are soon into the season of lavish Christmas Parties in Brussels. The expense accounts will be out in full and the hospitality industry will move up from yellow to red alert as the cha ching of cash and need for extra credit card swipe machines intensifies.\r\n\r\nIf David Davis (UK Chief negotiator) doesn’t get some UK BREXIT positives on paper pre-Christmas, I can see a Tory party revolt and a new leader in place for early 2018. I write this and I am fully aware that no one with any grey matter in their heads would want the poison chalice of dealing with BREXIT, unless you do not mind shoving two fingers in the air to the EU and taking the no deal option…. enter Boris Johnson.\r\n\r\nI think therefore that trading USD majors especially the EUR/USD and USD/JPY will be very reactionary to US data and BREXIT will keep anything GBP tied up.\r\n\r\nTherefore, the commodity currencies should offer us option. The AUD and NZD currencies in particular are weak and trading very heavily. Whilst I believe we have to allow for resetting pullbacks to enter these currencies remain the best option for trading pairs with liquidity.\r\n\r\nThe NZD is especially under pressure politically and moves lower should continue as long as political uncertainties continue. The AUD is being pushed lower by the RBA. Hats off to Philip Lowe this is being done professionally and the move is to a large extent given what usually happens being conducted under the radar.\r\n\r\nI have already said we should wait for the commodity cross rates to reset so that leaves the smaller currencies and exotic pairs.\r\n\r\nI closed a number of trades last Friday pre-weekend on the failure of the AUD and NZD currencies. I still think that pairs like the AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY, AUD/NZD, NZD/CAD etc. are still viable until the market reset is completed.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is my own subscriber based Forex support service that offers subscribers my suggested trade set-ups and market commentaries.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting the HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE tab.\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT 2017 PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\n\r\nPIPS ADDED LAST WEEK:           = +1,276 pips\r\n\r\nPIPS MONTH TO DATE:                = +1,445 pips\r\n\r\nYEAR TO DATE:                              = +11,847 pips\r\n\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs on my website  <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nAlternatively, if you prefer to watch a video recording about the PREMIUM SERVICE, click the link below. You will be directed to a 40-minute webinar presentation entitled “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE”.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS ONLY:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4:1. TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\nHoly crap a two-day trading week, give me more of that.\r\n\r\nI hope that you guys caught some of the moves. I know a couple of the newbie traders are copying most trade set-ups and I have heard from them vis-à-vis their delight.\r\n\r\nI still think we have a little more to go with the AUD and NZD weakness trades. As I have written in the blog already we need to see a reset of overbought and oversold conditions.\r\n\r\nThe cross rates have really been kind to me this past month or so. As I have mentioned on several occasions this year, we need to see sentiment and momentum. We had “RISK OFF” and the commodity currencies responded true to form. This type of trade has literally been out the market for two years.\r\n\r\nI am still however, not letting trades run beyond the 50 – 100 pip levels. I still do NOT trust this market.\r\n\r\nI am making a few changes for 2018.\r\n\r\nI have been checking out my competition, and whilst I have some issues to iron out basically I feel comfortable with what I have going with just a couple of changes here and there. It’s all about time. I am still a trader and need time to reflect and research. I cannot blast out 15 trades a day with 10 pip goals, that is just NOT me. But it is also very hard to try and trade SWING TRADING, in fact, I think it’s very much impossible of late and if it happens its pure fluke. But I am still trying as it is my core.\r\n\r\nFUNDAMENTAL TRADING still wins out in my opinion and trading with Central Bank Monetary Policy is the core still for next year.\r\n\r\nI am looking at bringing back the LIVE “DRIVE THRU” webinar, but I need a software package that is good and works with Safari.\r\n\r\nSubscriptions will not increase in 2018.\r\n\r\nI am toying with adding another TRADING STYLE that I have been testing out recently. More about this early December once 90 days worthy of results are in.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>4:2. SENTIMENT CHART,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nInto the year-end I think that I will get another shot at AUD and NZD weakness.\r\n\r\nThis SHOULD continue into 2018 as I am of the opinion that Central Bank divergence will become the trade moving forward.\r\n\r\nI am not 100% because of the uncertainty surrounding TRUMP. He wants a weak USD and he will talk down the USD but this will in no way be deemed to be intervention in the markets. It will be spun.\r\n\r\nI am still looking to get long GBP pairs across the board, but as mentioned recently I still believe that there is another substantial move lower in cable. The Theresa May situation and that added uncertainty makes me continue to believe that every day we trade GBP long we are risking a 100+ pip drop on the back of political fallout in the UK or a negative news item regarding BREXIT.\r\n\r\nI have my ARMAGGEDON GBP TRADES on a spreadsheet ready and armed to go!\r\n\r\nI am still looking to also get long the CHF across the board. This has to wait though until little rocket man is sorted out.\r\n\r\nLooking near term…\r\n\r\nSentiment is still mixed.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/SENTIMENT-19112017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10403\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/SENTIMENT-19112017-768x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"768\" height=\"1024\" /></a><u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u>4:3. TRADING PLANS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4:3.1. TRADING PLAN OVERVIEW THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\nIt will probably be a slow start to trading next week. We will be news driven so I would prefer to see a European session out of the way first.\r\n\r\nMy action plan for the week is: -\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>USD sentiment is still all over the place. Therefore, I will stay away as much as possible from the majors.</li>\r\n 	<li>Re-establish some cross-rate trades after the consolidation reset has taken place.</li>\r\n 	<li>Focus on re-establishing AUD and NZD short trades.</li>\r\n 	<li>CAD HEDGES. I am looking for over 1.2850 to enter shorts. I am close to getting this following last Friday’s data. Hopefully some follow through early in the week will give me an entry level that I will be happy with.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>4:3.2.  EXISTING CORE TRADES (PLANS &amp; STRATEGIES):</u>\r\n\r\nI am STILL bearish the CAD, AUD and NZD currencies. Last Friday I had a huge clear-out and I am now in re-build mode on suitable pullbacks.\r\n\r\nAs mentioned last week, the CAD is on the back burner for now. I STILL have three HEDGED trades to work through. There is no rush, but I will freely admit I am sick of looking at them blocking up my broker account live trades data area!\r\n\r\nThe AUD and NZD I am patiently waiting for pullbacks to use the opportunity to re-load again across the board.\r\n\r\nThe market itself is still broadly range bound and daily moves on most days are for the most part quite limiting.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE CAD:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nCurrently, I am live the following: -\r\n\r\n3 x live short USD/CAD trades. All three are HEDGED. No OUT trades are placed yet.\r\n\r\nPlus, I have a long CAD/JPY LIMIT ORDER in place but it is currently over 300 pips from the current market pricing.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: My belief is still that the USD/CAD is a short trade. I am waiting for 1.2850-1.2910 to establish 3 x “OUT” trades for my HEDGED trades.  I have my “OUT” trade LIMIT ORDERS in place at 1.2910. The question is whether I will be able to get my preferred entry level or not.\r\n\r\nThe recent highs have topped out around 1.2915 on two or three occasions. I am expecting USD strength to filter back through the market which will help my target entry levels. I want to use the USD strength to sell into this week or next week if possible and establish my “OUT” trades for these HEDGES.\r\n\r\nBe prepared, I could be waiting several weeks here until the market conditions are right.\r\n\r\nI have no plans currently to place / related trades against other pairs.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE NZD</u></strong>:\r\n\r\nCurrently I have 3 x live long AUD/NZD trades.\r\n\r\nPlus: - I have 2 more AUD/NZD long trades in position as LIMIT ORDERS&gt;\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: I will be looking to add NZD trades across the board as soon as I see a meaningful pullback to provide beneficial pricing.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE AUD:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nCurrently live I have a AUD/JPY short.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: - To add back trades across the board at the start of this coming week that I removed at the end of last week.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4:4. CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u><u> </u>\r\n\r\nCURRENT LIVE TRADES:\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/LIVE-19112017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10405\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/LIVE-19112017-919x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"919\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\nCURRENT LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/LIMIT-ORDERS-19112017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10404\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/LIMIT-ORDERS-19112017-1024x991.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"991\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4:5. FX BROKER NEWS with their MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\nHave you guys noticed the analysts to most brokers have been booted out into doing LIVE WEBINARS in an attempt to increase retail trader numbers for the year end and into 2018?\r\n\r\nGood Lord some of them I swear to God have never seen an actual trading platform before, they are so used to working off a BLOOMBERG terminal. If you want a giggle scout twitter, they will be there this week and probably every week through to Christmas.\r\n\r\nSo, the brokers intentions are clear. BONUS $$$ and FREE WEBINARS. Be very careful on the offers there are NO free lunches in FX.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> INTO THE CLOSE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you have read in this blog and would like the chance to win a FREE SUBSCRIPTION valued at CAD$150.00, all you need to do is subscribe to my FREE NEWSLETTER (this blog), by adding your email address on my welcome page just below my cube logo at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\nPREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTIONS:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you’ve read in this blog and should you want to go a stage further and subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE, this can be done on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the Tab SUBSCRIBE HERE.\r\n\r\nSubscribing to the PREMIUM SERVICE is not just about receiving a larger “DRIVE THRU” blog packed with more trading supporting information, my thoughts and ideas. There is much more to a subscription than those things. Check it all out under the tab HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nAlternatively, if you prefer to watch a video recording about the PREMIUM SERVICE, click the link below. You will be directed to a 40-minute webinar presentation entitled “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE”.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\nCLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @ThePremService\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #156 PREMIUM SERVICE\r\n19th November 2017\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','KIWI WILL REMAIN UNDER PRESSURE','','publish','open','closed','','kiwi-will-remain-pressure','','','2018-01-18 13:58:16','2018-01-18 18:58:16','',0,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?post_type=member_posts&#038;p=10420',0,'member_posts','',0),(10289,1,'2017-10-28 05:48:39','2017-10-28 10:48:39','&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nLast week’s title for my blog was: -\r\n\r\n<strong>WILL THE ECB PULL IT OFF?</strong>\r\n\r\nThe answer was a resounding “Yes” ….\r\n\r\nDespite the odds stacked against him Mario Draghi did a modern-day Houdini act. He delivered a “THUNDERBOLT” to the markets and silenced EURO bulls inside a minute.\r\n\r\nI will comment more about this later.\r\n\r\nLast week was like the week before lots of pips and $$$ being generated, primarily on the back of NZD weakness across the board.\r\n\r\nI cleared my 4 x HEDGED trades (2 x EUR/NZD, GBP/NZD and GBP/AUD) with net profits, only to enter three more on the back of the BOC last Wednesday. I am still a believer that the USD/CAD will be going lower than 1.2000 and that the BOC will surprise hike once again. Having not hedged trades for over two years to jump in with 7 in the same month is a bit of a nose-bleed situation.\r\n\r\nI personally view HEDGING as a trading tool to effectively “park” trades that you are in, that are moving sideways or against you but FUNDAMENTALLY you believe that you are directionally correct.\r\n\r\nOn many occasions, you can be focused on trades that are “up in your face” and let other trades go by. HEDGING removes this. I hedged last Wednesday, and I am still waiting to activate my exit strategy.\r\n\r\nMoving on.\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE has now achieved its annual target of net 10,000 pips.\r\n\r\n<strong>The total for 2017 now stands at 10,702 pips</strong>\r\n\r\nI am delighted with this because I have achieved this despite the fact that I moved home this year, trekking 13 hours across Canada out of Quebec into Nova Scotia, which took up a lot of my time. Plus, the move was followed by a 25-day trip to Australia and New Zealand, moving to a new house, with all the planning and scheduling with the trip as well, certainly placed an additional stress on trading. Remote trading is at the best of time very stressful. It was when all said and done about a three-month event, therefore to hit target with over two months of the year left is pleasing.\r\n\r\nAs my good friend, Roger would say “Happy Days”, I would add “Fecking” into the middle of his little saying.\r\n\r\nThe following section was in last week’s blog and I am leaving it unchanged (except for Italics) again this week, with the added couple of comments: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>As we enter the final couple of months in 2017, If you are thinking about FX trading as an additional income stream, why not get on board now? Get used to the way I do things, get familiar with the PREMIUM SERVICE system and get ready for blast off in 2018.</li>\r\n 	<li>Between now and the end of 2017 there are still pips to be gathered and $$$ to make!</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<em>My annual target of 10,000 pips is in sight</em><em>, however, nothing can be taken for granted and given that my position sizing this year has been smaller due to the markets having greater RISK attached, my income from trading will be lower this year… but, there should be an income barring any disasters in the run up to the year end.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>My point here as I mention every year is that those of you who trade with smaller account sizes can still make some money from trading Forex.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Single MINI LOT trades                                 = USD$1.00 each\r\nPREMIUM SERVICE Annual target               = 10,000 pips</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Anticipated Gross Income                            = USD$10,000 (10,000 pips x USD$1)</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Less PREMIUM SERVICE</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Annual subscription                                       = USD$1,000 (equivalent)</em><em>\r\nNET TRADING INCOME                               = USD$9,000</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Working on the 50% rule\r\nShould you can only capture:\r\n</em><em>50% of my suggested trades\r\n</em><em>50% of my entries on time\r\n</em><em>50% of my exits on time\r\n</em><em>You could still generate a NET INCOME\r\n</em><em>after subscription                                            of USD$4,0000</em>\r\n\r\n<em> </em><em>Obviously, you would need in the first year to open and adequately fund a broker account to meet the trading criteria you have set yourself. I would say to trade MINI LOT trades you would require a minimum of a USD$6,000 account for you first year after one year you should be able to trade and operate your account on trading income and then as the year’s progress increase your trading size to say 2 or 3 MINI LOTS but at the same time you must remember increased POSITION SIZES = INCREASED RISK.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>RISK MANAGEMENT is crucial to FX trading. Without it you fail.</em>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>2. THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong>\r\n\r\n<u>2.1: LOOKING BACK AT LAST WEEK’S NEWS.</u>\r\n\r\nHere is what tickled my fancy in the news last week as a currency trader.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>BOC</u></strong><u>: INTEREST RATE DECISION.</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe Bank of Canada left interest rates unchanged last week. This was not a complete surprise as recent financial data had been sliding away.\r\n\r\nStephen Poloz, BOC Governor, was quite dovish, but now that I understand him a little better he was really being nothing other than “matter of fact” with his language. Nevertheless, the CAD weakened like crazy, moving the USD/CAD about 150 pips higher to 1.2800. Potentially there is the chance of a 1.3000 re-test especially if you add in USD strength.\r\n\r\nWhilst, I think he sounded dovish, Poloz also amended forward forecasting quite a bit. Both the 2017 growth was revised up and the same for 2018, he also was very clear stating that less monetary stimulus would be required into the Canadian Economy.\r\n\r\nThe old chestnuts about Inflation risks to the downside, excess capacity in the Labour Market, softness in wage growth and elevated household debt all featured vis-a-vis the effects on these from higher interest rates.\r\n\r\nPoloz focused a great deal on lower inflation so reading between the lines the chances of another hike in 2017 look a little optimistic at this stage. We should not get too carried away here as 4 weeks ago we were expecting another hike this year, it could all turn around again in the next 2/3 weeks and a December move once again becomes a possibility.\r\n\r\nOne thing I have learned in trading FX for 10 years is never say never; even with a Central Bank.\r\n\r\nMy bias with the CAD, referring to USD/CAD is short-term Canadian weakness to be replaced at the turn of next year at the latest with CAD strength and the USD/CAD moving back lower towards 1.2000 once again.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>EUR:</u></strong><u> ECB INTEREST RATE &amp; PRESS CONFERENCE.</u>\r\n\r\n<u>THE DRAGHI THUNDERBOLT:</u>\r\n\r\nFair play the Pizza Boy pulled it off!\r\n\r\nAs mentioned last week the forward guidance provided was pretty much in line with what Draghi regurgitated to the assembled unsullied in Frankfurt.\r\n\r\nThe key takeaway was that the asset purchases would fall from the current €60 billion per month to €30 billion per month with effect from January 2018 and run at least until September 2018 or beyond. Expiring maturing securities that the ECB currently owns will be re-invested.\r\n\r\nThe key phrase from Draghi that was used on a number of occasions was “Extended period of time”, I was looking out for a well-used FED term “Transitory” and at times I was a little distracted but I do not recall a “Transitory” being used. However, “Extended period of time” for as long as necessary featured quite a bit.\r\n\r\nDraghi stated that there would be NO interest rate increase until the end of the Asset Purchases (QE) that means October 2018 at the earliest. That was like a knife straight through the middle of all the aspiring Euro bull’s hearts.\r\n\r\nBasically, Draghi was as dovish as he could be highlighting the only thing that he could highlight as an area of concern that was keeping the ECB accommodative moving forward, that was inflation, or rather the lack of it. He could not focus on other economic data as generally speaking all EUROZONE data has been improving of late. The only blemish is inflation. This was his focus.\r\n\r\nThe EUR/USD fell on his prepared statement and subsequent Q &amp; A through his press conference just a few pips shy of 200 pips. I would say that if I still lived in Marbella, Spain I would be able to hear the “Draghi” champagne corks popping all the way from Frankfurt.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>\r\nEUR:</u></strong><u> CATALONIA.</u>\r\n\r\nThis is going to be made into a Christmas pantomime.\r\n\r\nPuidgemont was going to announce independence then he wasn\'t … wait 30 minutes longer and he was definitely going to announce it.\r\n\r\nWell…\r\n\r\nHe didn’t and the best that I can make out is that he wants more elections that Madrid won’t agree to!\r\n\r\nI think that we are back at square one.\r\n\r\nThere are meetings scheduled and discussions within the Catalan parliament but with Madrid holding all the keys now it all seems rather old news to me now.\r\n\r\nThe funniest piece of news last Friday, was that at the same time as the Catalonian government were voting on declaring independence the Madrid parliament was voting through Article 155 to take away all the powers of Catalonia.\r\n\r\nLate Friday, I noticed on the wires that Puidgemont could get a jail sentence of up to 30 years for his recent actions.\r\n\r\nYou couldn’t make this stuff up.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD</u></strong><u>: JANET YELLEN’S REPLACEMENT.</u>\r\n\r\nWho is it going to be?\r\n\r\nTake your pick.\r\n\r\nJANET YELLEN\r\nGARY COHN\r\nJEROME POWELL\r\nKEVIN WARSH\r\nJOHN TAYLOR\r\n\r\nThat was last week’s list….\r\n\r\nHere is this week’s list….\r\n\r\nJEROME POWELL\r\nJOHN TAYLOR\r\n\r\nAs far as I can gather it’s an either-or decision for the president who believes his key roles under his job description as leader of the free world are: -\r\n\r\nKeep the Stock Market going up at all costs.\r\nKeep interest rates low.\r\nArgue on twitter with as many people as possible.\r\n\r\nInsult families of service people who have made the ultimate sacrifice for their country.\r\n\r\nSlag off the press. Unless he likes the reporting its “FAKE NEWS”\r\n\r\nLast Friday an unnamed White House source said that THE DONALD was leaning towards POWELL. Is this FAKE NEWS? Rule nothing out at all. Just because BLOOMBERG who delivered the news believes that they were given an exclusive means nothing vis-à-vis this administration.\r\n\r\nThe bookies still have POWELL &amp; TAYLOR as the dream ticket possibly filling the CHAIR and VICE CHAIR roles. It could be more like a fecking nightmare for them with TRUMP as President if this is true and plays out.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2: LOOKING AHEAD TO THIS COMING WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n2.2.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ECONOMIC-DATA-29102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10267\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ECONOMIC-DATA-29102017-1024x934.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"934\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.2: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/T-CHART-29102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10268\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/T-CHART-29102017-1024x844.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"844\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.3: USD – TRADING CHARTS and COMMENTARIES: </u>\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>EUR/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/EURUSD-D-29102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10282\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/EURUSD-D-29102017-1024x422.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"422\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/GBPUSD-D-29102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10283\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/GBPUSD-D-29102017-1024x422.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"422\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/AUDUSD-D-29102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10281\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/AUDUSD-D-29102017-1024x422.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"422\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/NZDUSD-D-29102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10284\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/NZDUSD-D-29102017-1024x422.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"422\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCAD-D-29102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10285\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCAD-D-29102017-1024x422.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"422\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCHF-D-29102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10286\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCHF-D-29102017-1024x422.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"422\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDJPY-D-29102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10287\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDJPY-D-29102017-1024x422.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"422\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.4: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:</u>\r\n\r\nThis week is packed and will be volatile, there are key events dotted throughout the week. The following are the pick from my perspective and the ones that interest me the most.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>CAD:</u></strong><u> GDP &amp; EMPLOYMENT DATA</u>.\r\n\r\nGDP is on Tuesday and the jobs data is released the same as NFP on Friday.\r\n\r\nThe CAD$ is weak following some poor data and then a very dovish BOC policy statement last week. Positioning for the CAD was very heavily based on CAD strength, I am one of those traders, in fact I have hedged my CAD short positions for the shorter term. I have NOT ruled out a hike before the end of 2017 and the data that the market feeds off has little impact on how the BOC thinks. The last interest rate hike for example was a surprise.\r\n\r\nCAD banks have re-positioned themselves, vis-à-vis their thoughts on interest rate increases and whilst in the main they see hikes early into 2018 only a couple are still believing that December 2017 should NOT be ruled out.\r\n\r\nThe data this week will either place what many would call the final nail in the coffin on no rate hikes in 2017, or if data is good maybe positioning will change.\r\n\r\nThe previous reading on GDP was 0%\r\nThis month the expectation is for 0.1%\r\nEmployment last month was +10,000\r\nThis Month the market is expecting +13,600\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP:</u></strong><u> MANUFACTURING, CONSTRUCTION &amp; SERVICES PMi.</u>\r\n\r\nMy God that was a quick month…\r\n\r\nIt only seems a week or so ago I was predicting and got right, what I am about to predict again.\r\n\r\nLast month: -\r\n\r\nManufacturing 55.1\r\nConstruction 48.1\r\nServices 53.6\r\n\r\nThis month the market expects: -\r\n\r\nManufacturing 55.9\r\nConstruction 48.9\r\nServices 53.3\r\n\r\nThis month I expect to see more of the same. Manufacturing and Construction to miss estimates and Services in line.\r\n\r\nThis information although backward looking is good from a BREXIT position, although PMi data is rather over-shadowed this week by the clatter of BOE data, none more important than the eagerly awaited interest rate decision.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP:</u></strong><u> INFLATION REPORT, INTEREST RATE, MPC VOTES &amp; CARNEY.</u>\r\n\r\nThis is it; Carneys biggest meeting so far. For me this is bigger than his 2 “mile” walk down the BOE corridor the day after the BREXIT vote, to announce more QE and a rate cut.\r\n\r\nHe is now on the brink of raising rates solely because inflation is a 3% above the 2% objective. Everything else in the UK is up in the air both politically and economically.\r\n\r\nThe GBP/USD has strengthened of late on the back of the expected rate increase, although USD strength is pulling it back towards 1.3000 again.\r\n\r\nBREXIT is still a shambles and the chances of a “NO DEAL” is quickly becoming what many believe will be the outcome. I have always said that the two-year time scale to tie up the loose ends to exit was challenging. Leave it to politicians and we have what can only be expected… a huge fu*k up.\r\n\r\nMany people have argued in the media that a 0.25% basis point increase will do nothing to stop inflation rising as it is “transitory”, if that\'s the case DO NOT raise rates!\r\n\r\nWage growth is a full 1% behind inflation and the proposed 0.25% rate increase will no doubt be passed on in full to households, increasing household debt and further pressures on family budgets will be felt.\r\n\r\nI make no apologies for raising this point again. BREXIT negotiations have NOT got past how much the divorce will cost, never mind the actual issues to address. WE haven’t even heard the word TRADE much of late. The trade deal will be so complex to manage and agree upon.\r\n\r\nCarney must see this. He must see the timetable for BREXIT = better than 50% chance of a NO DEAL. To raise interest rates with this backdrop could go down in the history books as foolish and seriously lacking of any vision.\r\n\r\nIt will be a very interesting announcement this Thursday. The market is anticipating a 0.25% rate increase and 9-0 on the MPC votes in favour of the increase.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>AUD:</u></strong><u> TRADE BALANCE &amp; RETAIL SALES.</u>\r\n\r\nPolitical calamities appear all over the globe. The Malcolm Turnbull government has now lost control of parliament following a legal intervention precluding dual nationality citizens living in Australia the ability to represent in parliament.\r\n\r\nThe High court ruled that Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce is ineligible to remain in Parliament as he has both Aussie and Kiwi citizenships. A bi-election now takes place and Turnbull is now looking for support from minorities to vote with his party to keep the government in play.\r\n\r\nThis political development over hangs the economic data with the view to sentiment moving forward as rallies will probably be sold into should data releases be good for the economy. The political uncertainty will trump economic data and therefore I would use rallies as selling opportunities.\r\n\r\nThe numbers expected are:\r\n\r\nRetail Sales 0.6% last month was a dreadful -0.5%\r\nTrade balance AUD$1.20 Billion versus last month AUD$0.99 Billion\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD:</u></strong><u> ADP, NON-FARM EMPLOYMENT DATA &amp; AVERAGE EARNINGS.</u>\r\n\r\nThe TRUMP circus continues, with the next round of U.S. employment data. The focus will be on average hourly earnings to see if the economy can generate some inflation.\r\n\r\nJanet Yellen’s “transitory” beliefs will be put to the test as we hit the next round of Inflation and jobs data.\r\n\r\nWe all wait with baited breath.\r\n\r\nBottom line, she is raising rates in December come hell or very high water.\r\n\r\nADP Expected 191,000, last month it was 135,000.\r\nNFP Expected 311,000, last month it was -33,000.\r\nAverage Hourly Earnings this month 0.2% last month it was 0.5%\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.5: HOW TO PLAY THE MARKET THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\nWe are jam packed with news events this coming week so you will probably not be too surprised with my thoughts for the coming week\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>The EUR/USD has triggered a Head and Shoulders pattern. It will NOT be a straightforward drop lower to its measured move target. At the same time the DXY (USD Index) has an inverted Head and Shoulders pattern in play (see chart below). This will NOT be a fast move higher either.<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/DXY-29102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10269\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/DXY-29102017-1024x493.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"493\" /></a></li>\r\n 	<li>The appointment of the FED CHAIR / VICE CHAIR rumoured to be POWELL / TAYLOR, the “dream team” ticket is being viewed widely as USD positive.This news if released this week should therefore support the Inverted Head and Shoulders move with the DXY.</li>\r\n 	<li>For good measure, we have an FOMC Statement this week. How many “transitory’s” will there be this time around. Yellen will probably announce at this release that she is NOT extending her stay at the FED beyond February 2018.Will the FOMC be USD positive? I would say YES. She cannot suddenly turn dovish after her last Oscar winning performance… or can she?</li>\r\n 	<li>S. employment is always a bit of a lottery and last month the adverse weather was used in advance to say that the numbers should be treated basically as meaningless.This month however a more usual number is expected. The question is will it be USD positive or negative?\r\n\r\nIf I knew the answer to that question, I would not be writing this blog!</li>\r\n 	<li>We have a major BOE announcement on Thursday. How Carney deals with the peripherals not as much the rate decision is of greater importance to me moving forward.Nevertheless; this is the MAJOR piece of data this week. However, GBP moves should remain very focused to GBP related pairs.</li>\r\n 	<li>We have CAD jobs at the same time as NFP, the opportunity for a double whammy exists with the CAD should the Cad jobs data be weak and the US data strong.Moves with antipodean currencies on NZD and AUD should just affect local crosses as well.\r\n\r\nI would view any “RIPS” with AUD and NZD opportunities to sell into and obtain good shorting prices.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSUMMARY:\r\n\r\nWhen you look at my bullet points I am giving a very USD positive (strength) viewpoint and for the time being I am biased that way. However, DO NOT LEAP in with full sized positions and here is why.\r\n\r\nTRUMP is on a goodwill mission to Asia at the end of the week, heaping TRUMP LOVE all over Asia.\r\n\r\nTRUMP is full of himself, full of shite and full of bravado, he is a Mr. Magoo character, leaving chaos and disorder behind wherever he treads. He cannot help himself. The TWEETS will be flowing. Before he leaves, the TWEETS about how great he is will be flowing.\r\n\r\nTrade smaller positions, stay on your toes. TRUMP has a FED announcement before he goes on his “goodwill Trip” and nothing ever passes off smoothly.\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, as time has moved forward his true colours are being displayed and having given him the benefit of the doubt for so long, my opinion of him is just that he is no more than at best a walking, talking, tweeting hemorrhoid. I am sure he must have great qualities somewhere, but I can’t see them.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nLook at cross-rate pairs to trade and stay away from currencies that will be directly affected by TRUMP fuck ups… USD, JPY and CHF.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is my own subscriber based Forex support service that offers subscribers my suggested trade set-ups and market commentaries.\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting the HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE tab.\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 120px;\"><u>CURRENT 2017 PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nLAST WEEKS PIP TOTAL:             +1,543 net pips\r\nOCTOBER 2017 TO DATE:           +2,655 net pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE 2017:                    +10,702 net pips</p>\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs on my website  <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\nAlternatively, if you prefer to watch a video recording about the PREMIUM SERVICE, click the link below. You will be directed to a 40-minute webinar presentation entitled “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE”.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS ONLY:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4.1: TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\n10,702 pips for 2017 to date…\r\n\r\nHappy fecking days…\r\n\r\nI still must work off the USD/CAD hedges, which will not be easy as I am still bullish the CAD medium / longer-term and believe that I should have added more long trades in on the BOC Rate decision day as it was telegraphed what was going to happen. I was a little stupid when that was happening. I played that news poorly.\r\n\r\nIt was a great couple of weeks with the cross rates really delivering. We are in consolidation mode at the moment and are waiting for the next move.\r\n\r\nCable will be of interest this week. I have read that many commentators and analysts believe that the 0.25% hike is already baked into the GBP/USD. My arse it is. I want to be ready on Thursday to capture pips on GBP cross rates.\r\n\r\nIf Carney does NOT hike the GBP should be decimated. You can have a negative outcome on a rate hike, rare, but possible. I am not expecting this as things stand at the moment with cable.\r\n\r\nIt is a busy week this coming week and we enter the week lighter than usual with LIVE trades.\r\n\r\nI mentioned on several occasions recently, and, I know some of you thought that I was leaving the party early, that my reasons for exiting many of the open trades early last week were based upon the fact that we had reached over bought and over sold conditions. Plus, we had a Draghi moment to consider.\r\n\r\nI DID NOT participate on ECB day, I could not get 20-30 pip pullbacks with the EUR/USD, in particular, to let me in and also the crosses were suffering across the board. I decided to do something else and be a voyeur trader from time to time during the day.\r\n\r\nFriday was a crap shoot. It was nothing more than a Las Vegas day in Forex. I will NO LONGER participate in those days any more. Even NFP has more sentiment and direction, for me to write that is huge.<u></u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.2: SENTIMENT CHART,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nSo, the last two weeks were “Win-Win” situations vis-à-vis the NZD. Now we move forward.\r\n\r\nMy focus remains with the NZD and now the GBP as well.\r\n\r\nNZD: I expect a pullback before we head lower towards 0.6500 in NZD/USD. We can and probably will go even lower. Nothing from the media news in New Zealand suggests anything remotely positive for the NZD currency, “RALLIES” “SPIKES” and “RIPS” are to be sold into.\r\n\r\nI will be adding but I will try my best to be as selective as possible and not be a NZD slut trader!!\r\n\r\nGBP: There are opportunities here this week. Thursday is Carney’s biggest moment. As stated earlier in the blog it’s not about the hike it\'s the statement and how the BOE view matters moving forward.\r\n\r\nDO NOT think because it’s an interest rate increase that the only way is up! It can be a GBP negative hike… stranger things have happened. I am not expecting this result but it has NOT been ruled out.\r\n\r\nI intend to be ready and loaded…\r\n\r\nWithout stating the bloody obvious the market loves the USD at the moment. Sentiment is most definitely skewed towards buying the USD. As mentioned in several places I believe this to be a short to medium term shift, probably until the end of 2017.\r\n\r\nAfter that I see USD weakness being driven through the markets through Presidential intervention via jaw-boning and interference.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/SENTIMENT-29102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10280\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/SENTIMENT-29102017-775x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"775\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u>4.3: EXISTING CORE TRADES (PLANS &amp; STRATEGIES):</u>\r\n\r\nI am STILL bearish the CAD and NZD currencies.\r\n\r\nThe CAD is on the back burner for now. I have three HEDGED trades to work through. I have just the one HEDGED TRADE with an “OUT” trade in play. I am to coin a phrase “HEDGING my approach to my HEDGES” if that makes sense.\r\n\r\nThe NZD I am waiting for a pullback to use that opportunity to read.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE CAD:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nCurrently, I am live the following: -\r\n\r\n3 x live short USD/CAD trades. All three are HEDGED and one has an “OUT” trade attached.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: These trades will remain on the back burner this week unless there is an opportunity to try and steal 100 pips here or there to offset the HEDGED amounts. I do not see these HEDGES in the same light as the GBP/NZD, EUR/NZD and GBP/AUD hedges. They were far more straightforward to exit without too much thought and strategy planning. These CAD HEDGES could be around for some time.\r\n\r\nI have no plans currently to place CAD related trades against other pairs. This may change soon, but for now nada!!\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE NZD</u></strong>:\r\n\r\nCurrently I have 3 x live long AUD/NZD trades and a NZD/JPY short trade.\r\n\r\nPlus: - I have 2 x AUD/NZD trades and a GBP/NZD and NZD/USD limit order trades in position.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: I will be looking to add NZD trades across the board as soon as I see a meaningful pullback to provide beneficial pricing.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.4: CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u><u></u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nCURRENT LIVE TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LIVE-29102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10271\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LIVE-29102017-889x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"889\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\nCURRENT LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LIMIT-29102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10270\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LIMIT-29102017-1024x1018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"1018\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.5: FX BROKER NEWS with their MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\nI heard from two brokers.\r\n\r\nVolumes from major banks are lower and the recent period of lack of volatility in the market confirms this view.\r\n\r\nThere is absolutely nothing that the brokers can do in this regard. They are suffering through lower retail volumes because the numbers of retail traders have gradually decreased since the EUR/CHF peg removal.\r\n\r\nI am being reminded about the FXCM removal from the US market also being pivotal, as the mistrust of a high-profile broker was huge, never mind all the white label brokers!!\r\n\r\nThere are plenty of cowboys out there, of that there is no doubt.\r\n\r\nI am trading with 5 brokers, 7 separate accounts at the moment and all is well ... touch wood. My two MT4 brokers VANTAGE FX (Australia) and HANTEC MARKETS (UK) continue to provide me with excellent service. My other TRADE STATION brokers are just excellent to work with.\r\n\r\nIf you are looking to open a separate broker account for PREMIUM SERVICE trades in 2018, take a look at VANTAGE FX or HANTEC MARKETS, signing up through my website link gives you fee advantages with VANTAGE FX.\r\n\r\nGoing back…\r\n\r\nWhenever I hear about reduced volumes, I immediately think consolidation….\r\n\r\nLet’s see what happens.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FINISHING LINE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5.1: WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you have read in this blog and would like the chance to win a FREE SUBSCRIPTION valued at CAD$150.00, all you need to do is subscribe to my FREE NEWSLETTER (this blog), by adding your email address on my welcome page just below my cube logo at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\n<u>5.2: PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTIONS:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you’ve read in this blog and should you want to go a stage further and subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE, this can be done on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the Tab SUBSCRIBE HERE.\r\n\r\nSubscribing to the PREMIUM SERVICE is not just about receiving a larger “DRIVE THRU” blog packed with more trading supporting information, my thoughts and ideas. There is much more to a subscription than those things. Check it all out under the tab HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nAlternatively, if you prefer to watch a video recording about the PREMIUM SERVICE, click the link below. You will be directed to a 40-minute webinar presentation entitled “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE”.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n<u>5.3: CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @ThePremService\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #153 PREMIUM SERVICE\r\n29th October 2017\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','THE DRAGHI THUNDERBOLT','','publish','open','closed','','the-draghi-thunderbolt','','','2018-01-18 13:59:37','2018-01-18 18:59:37','',0,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?post_type=member_posts&#038;p=10289',0,'member_posts','',0),(10290,1,'2017-10-28 05:48:39','2017-10-28 10:48:39','&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nLast week’s title for my blog was: -\r\n\r\n<strong>WILL THE ECB PULL IT OFF?</strong>\r\n\r\nThe answer was a resounding “Yes” ….\r\n\r\nDespite the odds stacked against him Mario Draghi did a modern-day Houdini act. He delivered a “THUNDERBOLT” to the markets and silenced EURO bulls inside a minute.\r\n\r\nI will comment more about this later.\r\n\r\nLast week was like the week before lots of pips and $$$ being generated, primarily on the back of NZD weakness across the board.\r\n\r\nI cleared my 4 x HEDGED trades (2 x EUR/NZD, GBP/NZD and GBP/AUD) with net profits, only to enter three more on the back of the BOC last Wednesday. I am still a believer that the USD/CAD will be going lower than 1.2000 and that the BOC will surprise hike once again. Having not hedged trades for over two years to jump in with 7 in the same month is a bit of a nose-bleed situation.\r\n\r\nI personally view HEDGING as a trading tool to effectively “park” trades that you are in, that are moving sideways or against you but FUNDAMENTALLY you believe that you are directionally correct.\r\n\r\nOn many occasions, you can be focused on trades that are “up in your face” and let other trades go by. HEDGING removes this. I hedged last Wednesday, and I am still waiting to activate my exit strategy.\r\n\r\nMoving on.\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE has now achieved its annual target of net 10,000 pips.\r\n\r\n<strong>The total for 2017 now stands at 10,702 pips</strong>\r\n\r\nI am delighted with this because I have achieved this despite the fact that I moved home this year, trekking 13 hours across Canada out of Quebec into Nova Scotia, which took up a lot of my time. Plus, the move was followed by a 25-day trip to Australia and New Zealand, moving to a new house, with all the planning and scheduling with the trip as well, certainly placed an additional stress on trading. Remote trading is at the best of time very stressful. It was when all said and done about a three-month event, therefore to hit target with over two months of the year left is pleasing.\r\n\r\nAs my good friend, Roger would say “Happy Days”, I would add “Fecking” into the middle of his little saying.\r\n\r\nThe following section was in last week’s blog and I am leaving it unchanged (except for Italics) again this week, with the added couple of comments: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>As we enter the final couple of months in 2017, If you are thinking about FX trading as an additional income stream, why not get on board now? Get used to the way I do things, get familiar with the PREMIUM SERVICE system and get ready for blast off in 2018.</li>\r\n 	<li>Between now and the end of 2017 there are still pips to be gathered and $$$ to make!</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<em>My annual target of 10,000 pips is in sight</em><em>, however, nothing can be taken for granted and given that my position sizing this year has been smaller due to the markets having greater RISK attached, my income from trading will be lower this year… but, there should be an income barring any disasters in the run up to the year end.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>My point here as I mention every year is that those of you who trade with smaller account sizes can still make some money from trading Forex.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Single MINI LOT trades                                 = USD$1.00 each\r\nPREMIUM SERVICE Annual target               = 10,000 pips</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Anticipated Gross Income                            = USD$10,000 (10,000 pips x USD$1)</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Less PREMIUM SERVICE</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Annual subscription                                       = USD$1,000 (equivalent)</em><em>\r\nNET TRADING INCOME                               = USD$9,000</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Working on the 50% rule\r\nShould you can only capture:\r\n</em><em>50% of my suggested trades\r\n</em><em>50% of my entries on time\r\n</em><em>50% of my exits on time\r\n</em><em>You could still generate a NET INCOME\r\n</em><em>after subscription                                            of USD$4,0000</em>\r\n\r\n<em> </em><em>Obviously, you would need in the first year to open and adequately fund a broker account to meet the trading criteria you have set yourself. I would say to trade MINI LOT trades you would require a minimum of a USD$6,000 account for you first year after one year you should be able to trade and operate your account on trading income and then as the year’s progress increase your trading size to say 2 or 3 MINI LOTS but at the same time you must remember increased POSITION SIZES = INCREASED RISK.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>RISK MANAGEMENT is crucial to FX trading. Without it you fail.</em>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>2. THE FX MARKET PLACE:\r\n\r\n\r\n</strong><u>2.1: LOOKING BACK AT LAST WEEK’S NEWS.</u>\r\n\r\nHere is what tickled my fancy in the news last week as a currency trader.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>BOC</u></strong><u>: INTEREST RATE DECISION.\r\n\r\n</u>\r\n\r\nThe Bank of Canada left interest rates unchanged last week. This was not a complete surprise as recent financial data had been sliding away.\r\n\r\nStephen Poloz, BOC Governor, was quite dovish, but now that I understand him a little better he was really being nothing other than “matter of fact” with his language. Nevertheless, the CAD weakened like crazy, moving the USD/CAD about 150 pips higher to 1.2800. Potentially there is the chance of a 1.3000 re-test especially if you add in USD strength.\r\n\r\nWhilst, I think he sounded dovish, Poloz also amended forward forecasting quite a bit. Both the 2017 growth was revised up and the same for 2018, he also was very clear stating that less monetary stimulus would be required into the Canadian Economy.\r\n\r\nThe old chestnuts about Inflation risks to the downside, excess capacity in the Labour Market, softness in wage growth and elevated household debt all featured vis-a-vis the effects on these from higher interest rates.\r\n\r\nPoloz focused a great deal on lower inflation so reading between the lines the chances of another hike in 2017 look a little optimistic at this stage. We should not get too carried away here as 4 weeks ago we were expecting another hike this year, it could all turn around again in the next 2/3 weeks and a December move once again becomes a possibility.\r\n\r\nOne thing I have learned in trading FX for 10 years is never say never; even with a Central Bank.\r\n\r\nMy bias with the CAD, referring to USD/CAD is short-term Canadian weakness to be replaced at the turn of next year at the latest with CAD strength and the USD/CAD moving back lower towards 1.2000 once again.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>EUR:</u></strong><u> ECB INTEREST RATE &amp; PRESS CONFERENCE.</u>\r\n\r\n<u>THE DRAGHI THUNDERBOLT:</u>\r\n\r\nFair play the Pizza Boy pulled it off!\r\n\r\nAs mentioned last week the forward guidance provided was pretty much in line with what Draghi regurgitated to the assembled unsullied in Frankfurt.\r\n\r\nThe key takeaway was that the asset purchases would fall from the current €60 billion per month to €30 billion per month with effect from January 2018 and run at least until September 2018 or beyond. Expiring maturing securities that the ECB currently owns will be re-invested.\r\n\r\nThe key phrase from Draghi that was used on a number of occasions was “Extended period of time”, I was looking out for a well-used FED term “Transitory” and at times I was a little distracted but I do not recall a “Transitory” being used. However, “Extended period of time” for as long as necessary featured quite a bit.\r\n\r\nDraghi stated that there would be NO interest rate increase until the end of the Asset Purchases (QE) that means October 2018 at the earliest. That was like a knife straight through the middle of all the aspiring Euro bull’s hearts.\r\n\r\nBasically, Draghi was as dovish as he could be highlighting the only thing that he could highlight as an area of concern that was keeping the ECB accommodative moving forward, that was inflation, or rather the lack of it. He could not focus on other economic data as generally speaking all EUROZONE data has been improving of late. The only blemish is inflation. This was his focus.\r\n\r\nThe EUR/USD fell on his prepared statement and subsequent Q &amp; A through his press conference just a few pips shy of 200 pips. I would say that if I still lived in Marbella, Spain I would be able to hear the “Draghi” champagne corks popping all the way from Frankfurt.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>\r\nEUR:</u></strong><u> CATALONIA.</u>\r\n\r\nThis is going to be made into a Christmas pantomime.\r\n\r\nPuidgemont was going to announce independence then he wasn\'t … wait 30 minutes longer and he was definitely going to announce it.\r\n\r\nWell…\r\n\r\nHe didn’t and the best that I can make out is that he wants more elections that Madrid won’t agree to!\r\n\r\nI think that we are back at square one.\r\n\r\nThere are meetings scheduled and discussions within the Catalan parliament but with Madrid holding all the keys now it all seems rather old news to me now.\r\n\r\nThe funniest piece of news last Friday, was that at the same time as the Catalonian government were voting on declaring independence the Madrid parliament was voting through Article 155 to take away all the powers of Catalonia.\r\n\r\nLate Friday, I noticed on the wires that Puidgemont could get a jail sentence of up to 30 years for his recent actions.\r\n\r\nYou couldn’t make this stuff up.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD</u></strong><u>: JANET YELLEN’S REPLACEMENT.</u>\r\n\r\nWho is it going to be?\r\n\r\nTake your pick.\r\n\r\nJANET YELLEN\r\nGARY COHN\r\nJEROME POWELL\r\nKEVIN WARSH\r\nJOHN TAYLOR\r\n\r\nThat was last week’s list….\r\n\r\nHere is this week’s list….\r\n\r\nJEROME POWELL\r\nJOHN TAYLOR\r\n\r\nAs far as I can gather it’s an either-or decision for the president who believes his key roles under his job description as leader of the free world are: -\r\n\r\nKeep the Stock Market going up at all costs.\r\nKeep interest rates low.\r\nArgue on twitter with as many people as possible.\r\n\r\nInsult families of service people who have made the ultimate sacrifice for their country.\r\n\r\nSlag off the press. Unless he likes the reporting its “FAKE NEWS”\r\n\r\nLast Friday an unnamed White House source said that THE DONALD was leaning towards POWELL. Is this FAKE NEWS? Rule nothing out at all. Just because BLOOMBERG who delivered the news believes that they were given an exclusive means nothing vis-à-vis this administration.\r\n\r\nThe bookies still have POWELL &amp; TAYLOR as the dream ticket possibly filling the CHAIR and VICE CHAIR roles. It could be more like a fecking nightmare for them with TRUMP as President if this is true and plays out.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2: LOOKING AHEAD TO THIS COMING WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n2.2.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ECONOMIC-DATA-29102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10267\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ECONOMIC-DATA-29102017-1024x934.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"934\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.2: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/T-CHART-29102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10268\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/T-CHART-29102017-1024x844.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"844\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.3: USD – TRADING CHARTS and COMMENTARIES: </u>\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>EUR/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/EURUSD-D-29102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10282\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/EURUSD-D-29102017-1024x422.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"422\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/GBPUSD-D-29102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10283\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/GBPUSD-D-29102017-1024x422.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"422\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/AUDUSD-D-29102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10281\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/AUDUSD-D-29102017-1024x422.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"422\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/NZDUSD-D-29102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10284\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/NZDUSD-D-29102017-1024x422.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"422\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCAD-D-29102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10285\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCAD-D-29102017-1024x422.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"422\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCHF-D-29102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10286\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCHF-D-29102017-1024x422.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"422\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDJPY-D-29102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10287\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDJPY-D-29102017-1024x422.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"422\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.4: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:\r\n\r\n</u>This week is packed and will be volatile, there are key events dotted throughout the week. The following are the pick from my perspective and the ones that interest me the most.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>CAD:</u></strong><u> GDP &amp; EMPLOYMENT DATA</u>.\r\n\r\nGDP is on Tuesday and the jobs data is released the same as NFP on Friday.\r\n\r\nThe CAD$ is weak following some poor data and then a very dovish BOC policy statement last week. Positioning for the CAD was very heavily based on CAD strength, I am one of those traders, in fact I have hedged my CAD short positions for the shorter term. I have NOT ruled out a hike before the end of 2017 and the data that the market feeds off has little impact on how the BOC thinks. The last interest rate hike for example was a surprise.\r\n\r\nCAD banks have re-positioned themselves, vis-à-vis their thoughts on interest rate increases and whilst in the main they see hikes early into 2018 only a couple are still believing that December 2017 should NOT be ruled out.\r\n\r\nThe data this week will either place what many would call the final nail in the coffin on no rate hikes in 2017, or if data is good maybe positioning will change.\r\n\r\nThe previous reading on GDP was 0%\r\nThis month the expectation is for 0.1%\r\nEmployment last month was +10,000\r\nThis Month the market is expecting +13,600\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP:</u></strong><u> MANUFACTURING, CONSTRUCTION &amp; SERVICES PMi.</u>\r\n\r\nMy God that was a quick month…\r\n\r\nIt only seems a week or so ago I was predicting and got right, what I am about to predict again.\r\n\r\nLast month: -\r\n\r\nManufacturing 55.1\r\nConstruction 48.1\r\nServices 53.6\r\n\r\nThis month the market expects: -\r\n\r\nManufacturing 55.9\r\nConstruction 48.9\r\nServices 53.3\r\n\r\nThis month I expect to see more of the same. Manufacturing and Construction to miss estimates and Services in line.\r\n\r\nThis information although backward looking is good from a BREXIT position, although PMi data is rather over-shadowed this week by the clatter of BOE data, none more important than the eagerly awaited interest rate decision.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP:</u></strong><u> INFLATION REPORT, INTEREST RATE, MPC VOTES &amp; CARNEY.</u>\r\n\r\nThis is it; Carneys biggest meeting so far. For me this is bigger than his 2 “mile” walk down the BOE corridor the day after the BREXIT vote, to announce more QE and a rate cut.\r\n\r\nHe is now on the brink of raising rates solely because inflation is a 3% above the 2% objective. Everything else in the UK is up in the air both politically and economically.\r\n\r\nThe GBP/USD has strengthened of late on the back of the expected rate increase, although USD strength is pulling it back towards 1.3000 again.\r\n\r\nBREXIT is still a shambles and the chances of a “NO DEAL” is quickly becoming what many believe will be the outcome. I have always said that the two-year time scale to tie up the loose ends to exit was challenging. Leave it to politicians and we have what can only be expected… a huge fu*k up.\r\n\r\nMany people have argued in the media that a 0.25% basis point increase will do nothing to stop inflation rising as it is “transitory”, if that\'s the case DO NOT raise rates!\r\n\r\nWage growth is a full 1% behind inflation and the proposed 0.25% rate increase will no doubt be passed on in full to households, increasing household debt and further pressures on family budgets will be felt.\r\n\r\nI make no apologies for raising this point again. BREXIT negotiations have NOT got past how much the divorce will cost, never mind the actual issues to address. WE haven’t even heard the word TRADE much of late. The trade deal will be so complex to manage and agree upon.\r\n\r\nCarney must see this. He must see the timetable for BREXIT = better than 50% chance of a NO DEAL. To raise interest rates with this backdrop could go down in the history books as foolish and seriously lacking of any vision.\r\n\r\nIt will be a very interesting announcement this Thursday. The market is anticipating a 0.25% rate increase and 9-0 on the MPC votes in favour of the increase.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>AUD:</u></strong><u> TRADE BALANCE &amp; RETAIL SALES.</u>\r\n\r\nPolitical calamities appear all over the globe. The Malcolm Turnbull government has now lost control of parliament following a legal intervention precluding dual nationality citizens living in Australia the ability to represent in parliament.\r\n\r\nThe High court ruled that Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce is ineligible to remain in Parliament as he has both Aussie and Kiwi citizenships. A bi-election now takes place and Turnbull is now looking for support from minorities to vote with his party to keep the government in play.\r\n\r\nThis political development over hangs the economic data with the view to sentiment moving forward as rallies will probably be sold into should data releases be good for the economy. The political uncertainty will trump economic data and therefore I would use rallies as selling opportunities.\r\n\r\nThe numbers expected are:\r\n\r\nRetail Sales 0.6% last month was a dreadful -0.5%\r\nTrade balance AUD$1.20 Billion versus last month AUD$0.99 Billion\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD:</u></strong><u> ADP, NON-FARM EMPLOYMENT DATA &amp; AVERAGE EARNINGS.</u>\r\n\r\nThe TRUMP circus continues, with the next round of U.S. employment data. The focus will be on average hourly earnings to see if the economy can generate some inflation.\r\n\r\nJanet Yellen’s “transitory” beliefs will be put to the test as we hit the next round of Inflation and jobs data.\r\n\r\nWe all wait with baited breath.\r\n\r\nBottom line, she is raising rates in December come hell or very high water.\r\n\r\nADP Expected 191,000, last month it was 135,000.\r\nNFP Expected 311,000, last month it was -33,000.\r\nAverage Hourly Earnings this month 0.2% last month it was 0.5%\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.5: HOW TO PLAY THE MARKET THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\nWe are jam packed with news events this coming week so you will probably not be too surprised with my thoughts for the coming week\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>The EUR/USD has triggered a Head and Shoulders pattern. It will NOT be a straightforward drop lower to its measured move target. At the same time the DXY (USD Index) has an inverted Head and Shoulders pattern in play (see chart below). This will NOT be a fast move higher either.\r\n\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/DXY-29102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10269\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/DXY-29102017-1024x493.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"493\" /></a></li>\r\n 	<li>The appointment of the FED CHAIR / VICE CHAIR rumoured to be POWELL / TAYLOR, the “dream team” ticket is being viewed widely as USD positive.\r\n\r\nThis news if released this week should therefore support the Inverted Head and Shoulders move with the DXY.</li>\r\n 	<li>For good measure, we have an FOMC Statement this week. How many “transitory’s” will there be this time around. Yellen will probably announce at this release that she is NOT extending her stay at the FED beyond February 2018.\r\n\r\nWill the FOMC be USD positive? I would say YES. She cannot suddenly turn dovish after her last Oscar winning performance… or can she?</li>\r\n 	<li>S. employment is always a bit of a lottery and last month the adverse weather was used in advance to say that the numbers should be treated basically as meaningless.\r\n\r\nThis month however a more usual number is expected. The question is will it be USD positive or negative?\r\n\r\nIf I knew the answer to that question, I would not be writing this blog!</li>\r\n 	<li>We have a major BOE announcement on Thursday. How Carney deals with the peripherals not as much the rate decision is of greater importance to me moving forward.\r\n\r\nNevertheless; this is the MAJOR piece of data this week. However, GBP moves should remain very focused to GBP related pairs.</li>\r\n 	<li>We have CAD jobs at the same time as NFP, the opportunity for a double whammy exists with the CAD should the Cad jobs data be weak and the US data strong.\r\n\r\nMoves with antipodean currencies on NZD and AUD should just affect local crosses as well.\r\n\r\nI would view any “RIPS” with AUD and NZD opportunities to sell into and obtain good shorting prices.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSUMMARY:\r\n\r\nWhen you look at my bullet points I am giving a very USD positive (strength) viewpoint and for the time being I am biased that way. However, DO NOT LEAP in with full sized positions and here is why.\r\n\r\nTRUMP is on a goodwill mission to Asia at the end of the week, heaping TRUMP LOVE all over Asia.\r\n\r\nTRUMP is full of himself, full of shite and full of bravado, he is a Mr. Magoo character, leaving chaos and disorder behind wherever he treads. He cannot help himself. The TWEETS will be flowing. Before he leaves, the TWEETS about how great he is will be flowing.\r\n\r\nTrade smaller positions, stay on your toes. TRUMP has a FED announcement before he goes on his “goodwill Trip” and nothing ever passes off smoothly.\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, as time has moved forward his true colours are being displayed and having given him the benefit of the doubt for so long, my opinion of him is just that he is no more than at best a walking, talking, tweeting hemorrhoid. I am sure he must have great qualities somewhere, but I can’t see them.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nLook at cross-rate pairs to trade and stay away from currencies that will be directly affected by TRUMP fuck ups… USD, JPY and CHF.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is my own subscriber based Forex support service that offers subscribers my suggested trade set-ups and market commentaries.\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting the HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE tab.\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 120px;\"><u>CURRENT 2017 PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nLAST WEEKS PIP TOTAL:             +1,543 net pips\r\nOCTOBER 2017 TO DATE:           +2,655 net pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE 2017:                    +10,702 net pips\r\n</p>\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs on my website  <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\nAlternatively, if you prefer to watch a video recording about the PREMIUM SERVICE, click the link below. You will be directed to a 40-minute webinar presentation entitled “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE”.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS ONLY:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4.1: TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\n10,702 pips for 2017 to date…\r\n\r\nHappy fecking days…\r\n\r\nI still must work off the USD/CAD hedges, which will not be easy as I am still bullish the CAD medium / longer-term and believe that I should have added more long trades in on the BOC Rate decision day as it was telegraphed what was going to happen. I was a little stupid when that was happening. I played that news poorly.\r\n\r\nIt was a great couple of weeks with the cross rates really delivering. We are in consolidation mode at the moment and are waiting for the next move.\r\n\r\nCable will be of interest this week. I have read that many commentators and analysts believe that the 0.25% hike is already baked into the GBP/USD. My arse it is. I want to be ready on Thursday to capture pips on GBP cross rates.\r\n\r\nIf Carney does NOT hike the GBP should be decimated. You can have a negative outcome on a rate hike, rare, but possible. I am not expecting this as things stand at the moment with cable.\r\n\r\nIt is a busy week this coming week and we enter the week lighter than usual with LIVE trades.\r\n\r\nI mentioned on several occasions recently, and, I know some of you thought that I was leaving the party early, that my reasons for exiting many of the open trades early last week were based upon the fact that we had reached over bought and over sold conditions. Plus, we had a Draghi moment to consider.\r\n\r\nI DID NOT participate on ECB day, I could not get 20-30 pip pullbacks with the EUR/USD, in particular, to let me in and also the crosses were suffering across the board. I decided to do something else and be a voyeur trader from time to time during the day.\r\n\r\nFriday was a crap shoot. It was nothing more than a Las Vegas day in Forex. I will NO LONGER participate in those days any more. Even NFP has more sentiment and direction, for me to write that is huge.<u>\r\n\r\n</u><u>4.2: SENTIMENT CHART,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:\r\n\r\n</u>\r\n\r\nSo, the last two weeks were “Win-Win” situations vis-à-vis the NZD. Now we move forward.\r\n\r\nMy focus remains with the NZD and now the GBP as well.\r\n\r\nNZD: I expect a pullback before we head lower towards 0.6500 in NZD/USD. We can and probably will go even lower. Nothing from the media news in New Zealand suggests anything remotely positive for the NZD currency, “RALLIES” “SPIKES” and “RIPS” are to be sold into.\r\n\r\nI will be adding but I will try my best to be as selective as possible and not be a NZD slut trader!!\r\n\r\nGBP: There are opportunities here this week. Thursday is Carney’s biggest moment. As stated earlier in the blog it’s not about the hike it\'s the statement and how the BOE view matters moving forward.\r\n\r\nDO NOT think because it’s an interest rate increase that the only way is up! It can be a GBP negative hike… stranger things have happened. I am not expecting this result but it has NOT been ruled out.\r\n\r\nI intend to be ready and loaded…\r\n\r\nWithout stating the bloody obvious the market loves the USD at the moment. Sentiment is most definitely skewed towards buying the USD. As mentioned in several places I believe this to be a short to medium term shift, probably until the end of 2017.\r\n\r\nAfter that I see USD weakness being driven through the markets through Presidential intervention via jaw-boning and interference.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/SENTIMENT-29102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10280\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/SENTIMENT-29102017-775x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"775\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u>4.3: EXISTING CORE TRADES (PLANS &amp; STRATEGIES):</u>\r\n\r\nI am STILL bearish the CAD and NZD currencies.\r\n\r\nThe CAD is on the back burner for now. I have three HEDGED trades to work through. I have just the one HEDGED TRADE with an “OUT” trade in play. I am to coin a phrase “HEDGING my approach to my HEDGES” if that makes sense.\r\n\r\nThe NZD I am waiting for a pullback to use that opportunity to read.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE CAD:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nCurrently, I am live the following: -\r\n\r\n3 x live short USD/CAD trades. All three are HEDGED and one has an “OUT” trade attached.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: These trades will remain on the back burner this week unless there is an opportunity to try and steal 100 pips here or there to offset the HEDGED amounts. I do not see these HEDGES in the same light as the GBP/NZD, EUR/NZD and GBP/AUD hedges. They were far more straightforward to exit without too much thought and strategy planning. These CAD HEDGES could be around for some time.\r\n\r\nI have no plans currently to place CAD related trades against other pairs. This may change soon, but for now nada!!\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE NZD</u></strong>:\r\n\r\nCurrently I have 3 x live long AUD/NZD trades and a NZD/JPY short trade.\r\n\r\nPlus: - I have 2 x AUD/NZD trades and a GBP/NZD and NZD/USD limit order trades in position.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: I will be looking to add NZD trades across the board as soon as I see a meaningful pullback to provide beneficial pricing.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.4: CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u><u>\r\n\r\n</u>\r\n\r\nCURRENT LIVE TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LIVE-29102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10271\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LIVE-29102017-889x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"889\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n\r\nCURRENT LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LIMIT-29102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10270\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LIMIT-29102017-1024x1018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"1018\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.5: FX BROKER NEWS with their MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\nI heard from two brokers.\r\n\r\nVolumes from major banks are lower and the recent period of lack of volatility in the market confirms this view.\r\n\r\nThere is absolutely nothing that the brokers can do in this regard. They are suffering through lower retail volumes because the numbers of retail traders have gradually decreased since the EUR/CHF peg removal.\r\n\r\nI am being reminded about the FXCM removal from the US market also being pivotal, as the mistrust of a high-profile broker was huge, never mind all the white label brokers!!\r\n\r\nThere are plenty of cowboys out there, of that there is no doubt.\r\n\r\nI am trading with 5 brokers, 7 separate accounts at the moment and all is well ... touch wood. My two MT4 brokers VANTAGE FX (Australia) and HANTEC MARKETS (UK) continue to provide me with excellent service. My other TRADE STATION brokers are just excellent to work with.\r\n\r\nIf you are looking to open a separate broker account for PREMIUM SERVICE trades in 2018, take a look at VANTAGE FX or HANTEC MARKETS, signing up through my website link gives you fee advantages with VANTAGE FX.\r\n\r\nGoing back…\r\n\r\nWhenever I hear about reduced volumes, I immediately think consolidation….\r\n\r\nLet’s see what happens.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FINISHING LINE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5.1: WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you have read in this blog and would like the chance to win a FREE SUBSCRIPTION valued at CAD$150.00, all you need to do is subscribe to my FREE NEWSLETTER (this blog), by adding your email address on my welcome page just below my cube logo at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\n<u>5.2: PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTIONS:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you’ve read in this blog and should you want to go a stage further and subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE, this can be done on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the Tab SUBSCRIBE HERE.\r\n\r\nSubscribing to the PREMIUM SERVICE is not just about receiving a larger “DRIVE THRU” blog packed with more trading supporting information, my thoughts and ideas. There is much more to a subscription than those things. Check it all out under the tab HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nAlternatively, if you prefer to watch a video recording about the PREMIUM SERVICE, click the link below. You will be directed to a 40-minute webinar presentation entitled “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE”.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n<u>5.3: CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @ThePremService\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #153 PREMIUM SERVICE\r\n29th October 2017\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','THE DRAGHI THUNDERBOLT','','inherit','closed','closed','','10289-revision-v1','','','2017-10-28 05:48:39','2017-10-28 10:48:39','',10289,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/10289-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(11031,1,'2018-02-24 06:06:07','2018-02-24 11:06:07','&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE FIRST SHOT:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nAnother week has just flown by once again.\r\n\r\nI am banking $$$ and pips as I go along although my brokers containing my POSITION TRADES are just mainly a sea of red. Every now and then I bank pips, in fact, this month I have +1,115 pips from POSITION trades alone but the broker accounts never seem to move! My shorter-term trades are far more fluid, with just over +1,000 pips emanating from shorter-term trading so far this month. It looks as though February 2018 could be a record month. I thought that last year’s +1,420 pips was a great total but providing nothing stupid happens this February will be the best since 2014, which was the PREMIUM SERVICE inaugural year.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nMost of the focus recently has been on US10year Treasury Yields as they approach 3%.\r\n\r\nIt appears to me that the only subject that is consistent across all the G10 major Central Banks at the moment is INFLATION. It used to be DEFLATION that was the primary focus, but Central Bank Presidents and Governors couldn’t say that word without squeezing their buttocks together, so they created the word DIS-INFLATION instead. Since the US 10YRTreasury 3% level became a reality, INFLATION is mentioned soooooo many times now!\r\n\r\nFrom a trading perspective at least, we know more than ever what data attracts more policy attention and focus.\r\n\r\nHowever, we had the FOMC minutes from Yellen’s last meeting published last Wednesday. What a farce that was. A massive spike in stocks and drop in DXY to be completely reversed and “some more” all in 3 hours. Just some crazy movements in prices. I just love the TV anchors / analysts trying to find a logical reason behind a complete reversal switch in market sentiment. Sometimes it is just impossible to know why. I am now more often than not sidelined at these bigger “market moving” news events: - FOMC, NFP, ECB Press Conferences and BOE Super Thursday’s. I no longer see the point of trading these events they are often just knee-jerk moves and to trade to make 20 pip moves is just NOT my bag at all. Having said that at times beggars can’t be choosers!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong> MARKET OVERVIEW – MY THOUGHTS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>CALM BEFORE THE STORM?</strong></span></p>\r\nI sense an unease with market sentiment… God I’m good at this!\r\n\r\nNo matter what you trade, BONDS, STOCKS, FUTURES, COMMODITIES or FOREX every morning regardless of your location on this planet you must get the “I wonder is this going to be the day” thoughts going through your head.\r\n\r\nI only trade Forex, I am just NOT interested in anything else to trade although from next year, I may add trading indices to my trade portfolio, but that is as good as my “what happens if’s” that I post to twitter most mornings to my PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers, it may not happen for any number of reasons.\r\n\r\nWe are in volatile trading times at the moment. A little bit of background.\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>The USD index (DXY) is presently bouncing off recent lows of 88.15 trying to establish a base and work its way back above rent short term highs of 90.45. If it does NOT surpass this level, I will be calling the bounce off 83.15 a dead cat bounce.</li>\r\n 	<li>THE SPX is off its recent highs of 2,728.75 following the recent crash in prices. It hit an intra-day low of 2,706.25 and it is trying to use this level as a base from which to attempt to regain lost ground.</li>\r\n 	<li>Given that we now have inflation into the US economy, the traditional flight to safety of GOLD has been flexing its muscles. It has been in a range from lows of $1,309.00 to highs of $1,370.50 per ounce for the past 3-4 weeks.</li>\r\n 	<li>US Treasuries 10 Year Bond Yield. This has been the subject of much speculation because of the recent equity markets crash. The yield has been drifting higher for quite some time, ignored by equity traders. At the time of the last Non-Farm payrolls print, which included the mark-up in Average Hourly wages deemed to be the reason for the crash the yield spikes to 2.88%. Since NFP day it has been as high as 2.95%... 3% is looming!Higher U.S. interest rates from the FED on the horizon caused treasury yields to react higher.\r\n\r\nBond yields are sensitive to inflation and there is also a relationship between the US 10 year note and the USD/JPY.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNow, I could spend hours on this subject. I do not want to do that because it’s boring, my point that I want to make is that everything, regardless of market is linked one way or another. It is the classic DOMINO EFFECT.\r\n\r\nA couple of years ago I wrote a blog titled THE DOMINO EFFECT and, in my opinion, we are here again. The penny may have finally dropped with equity traders that interest rates are going to rise and instead of burying their heads in the sand, they make a more professional approach.\r\n\r\nI think that it would be fair to say that the FX market reaction has in the main been fairly muted. The EUR/USD has not been running up and down the charts like a headless chicken, it has been very placid. The USD/JPY has been flexing but no way near as much as I had thought it may have given the situation.\r\n\r\nIf this current market revision in sentiment, was a party, I would say that the BOND and COMMODITY traders arrived first, followed quickly by the FUTURES traders then by the FX traders and what seems to be the case on every occasion the EQUITY traders are last to arrive. The penny needs to drop with a loud bang for the message to register.\r\n\r\nThe FOMC minutes release last week was a classic case in point. On a quick scanned glance, I thought that the minutes looked confirming, to me it was HAWKISH. I was astonished when the USD was sold off. I covered positions and took limit orders off the table, only for about 60 minutes after being released the USD started to spike as the reality of the content of the minutes was interpreted accurately. The USD losses were more than wiped out with gains into the close.\r\n\r\nWe have markets that are having problems adjusting. The BUY THE DIP approach is just NOT going to work in a two-way market which finally looks like it’s going to be on the cards once again.\r\n\r\nBut it’s not going to be that simple.\r\n\r\nWe have an administration in D.C. that really does NOT want a strong USD, which, seems to be a hand in glove partner to the T-Bill moves, the stock market moves, and the commodity price moves that will be on the cards with inflation and a cycle of increasing interest rates in the pipeline.\r\n\r\nThis creates uncertainty, which in turn will fuel volatility.\r\n\r\nI am a believer in correlations; correlations do matter whether they are inside one market or an inter-market correlation. These are fundamental to the DOMINO EFFECT.\r\n\r\nIt’s complicated but trying to keep it simple. USD (DXY), US Treasuries, GOLD, OIL, USD/JPY, the VIX and the SPX all have a correlated inter-woven part to play to moving forward. Right now, there is an element of doing their own thing. The SPX is no longer reacting the 10 Year Yields, OIL and the USD not in sync, USD and GOLD not quite there.\r\n\r\nThe upshot is that at the moment we have a CALM… a CALM BEFORE THE STORM. It is inevitable that a reaction is going to take place. The mini crash of a couple of weeks ago saw price movements in chunks at a time so fierce was the volatility. It will happen again.\r\n\r\nWhen and what will be the trigger?\r\n\r\nThe $64,000 question.\r\n\r\nRight now, I would say if treasury yields cross 3% it could be a strong catalyst. But it could as easily be something else like a collapse in OIL prices.\r\n\r\nHowever, this week we have the new FED Chair, Jerome Powell delivering the FED Monetary Policy Report (Humphrey-Hawkins testimony) to congress this coming Tuesday. If he delivers a very interpreted HAWKISH view of the U.S. economy, it is possible that this could be the catalyst to set the DOMINO EFFECT in play.\r\n\r\nHowever, …\r\n\r\nThere are so many “If’s and buts”. I think the phrase is “If ifs and buts were candy and nuts we’d all have a happy Christmas”. This STORM will happen long before Christmas this year, I think that I am safe in announcing that!\r\n\r\nAll we can do is sit in front of our screens each morning, go through our startup routines and ask the question… “Is today going to be the day” and get prepared. With every day that passes without reaction the big day looms closer!\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>USD SUPPORT and RESISTANCE with my BIAS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/TCHART-24022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-11010\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/TCHART-24022018-1024x891.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"891\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE PREMIUM SERVICE TRADING SUMMARY:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><u>PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:\r\n</u>(Incorporating the last 5 PREMIUM SERVICE TRADES)</span>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/PS-SUMMARY-24022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-11014\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/PS-SUMMARY-24022018-1024x852.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"852\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nYou can get on board and join from as little as CAD$150.00 per month, conversions are roughly as follows: -\r\n\r\nGBP £90 per month\r\nEUR €100 per month\r\nUSD $120 per month\r\nJPY 12,700 per month\r\nAUD $150 per month\r\n\r\nThis represents a great value way to subscribe…  and a great RISK / REWARD!\r\n\r\nYou can subscribe for periods as well. Go to my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> for more details under the TAB – “SUBSCRIBE HERE”.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(This section is for PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS ONLY)\r\n\r\n<u>5.1. TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\nI am having a great spell at the screens at the moment. I make some fuck ups from time to time, but they are more than compensated for the better trades that are taken.\r\n\r\nIt is however, a challenging, annoying and at times a pain in the arse market to trade inside at times.\r\n\r\nQuite hilarious really that the JPY should be proving to be “my go to trade” at the moment. I thought initially that the BOJ was changing policy and that the JPY would become the “FREEBIE BONUS TRADE” of 2018. That idea quickly fell on stony ground, but the US10 YR T-BILL and US inflation chatter has brought the JPY back into vogue for me!\r\n\r\nThe cross-rates continue to remain rangy. Only the CAD crosses appear lively, although the AUD is springing to life of late as the RISK OFF / RISK ON trade starts to re-appear. Although, the EUR/AUD needs to break 1.5850 to get its mojo going. For now, 1.5800 is difficult to pass, which is frustrating. I think I could have taken 70 pips profit 4 times already based on the rejections I have seen with EUR/AUD (FUN847). That trade has been live since 5<sup>th</sup> February, when I first saw the opportunity.\r\n\r\nWith Powell’s Humphrey-Hawkins testimony scheduled for this coming week, I am going to chop away lots of trades as I expect fireworks and God knows how the market will react.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.2. SENTIMENT,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:\r\n</u>\r\n\r\nNo change in my FUNDAMENTAL / MACRO THOUGHTS for 2018.\r\n\r\nI am still bearish the NZD and CAD (albeit I am not trading it yet)\r\n\r\nI am still bullish the GBP (even though I know that I could get a 100-200 pip on BREXIT data). For now, I am happy to trade GBP crosses.\r\n\r\nI am also bullish the EUR, but I really need further clarity on ECB policy and the USD fragility concerns me to get heavy on USD related pairs. Very similar to GBP, I will look to continue to trade the EUR cross rates.\r\n\r\nI am sitting on the fence with the AUD, CHF and JPY based on the longer-term (over 6 months view), I just don\'t know, there are too many imponderables.\r\n\r\nFinally, the USD. After Powell’s testimony this week it might be clearer what his opinion is of the U.S. economy and it will be great to get an idea of his forward guidance. In theory, it should be the easiest trade on the planet, but with the TRUMP administration being currency manipulators and frankly a liability to the U.S. economy it is as clear as fecking mud!\r\n\r\nEven with clarity from the FED, you just know TRUMP will undermine the FED if he decides to, which makes the USD hard to trade.\r\n\r\nDespite all my economic background and MACRO views I think that we could see a momentous USD squeeze after Powell followed by the biggest sell-off in the USD in history. We could rise to (DXY) 94.00 and pullback to 80.00 in a couple of weeks or so. I find this so hard to reason out strategically without having the TRUMP EFFECT enter my thoughts.\r\n\r\nThe commodity currencies have their own thing, but the rest are so tied to US policy one way or another, I find myself looking at cross rate and JPY charts more so than USD charts.\r\n\r\nAs Prince would have sang “It’s a Sign ‘o the Times”.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/SENTIMENT-24022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-11011\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/SENTIMENT-24022018-782x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"782\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3. THE WEEK AHEAD:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.1. ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES THAT INTEREST ME:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/ECON-DATA-24022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-11009\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/ECON-DATA-24022018-1024x905.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"905\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.2. MY KEY EVENTS ON THIS WEEK’S CALENDAR AND WHY:</u>\r\n\r\nThere are only two events that have my attention this week.\r\n\r\n<u>USD – JEROME POWELL – HUMPHREY-HAWKINS TESTIMONY:</u>\r\n\r\nProbably, what one would call a “Baptism by Fire”.\r\n\r\nIt must be bad enough working for TRUMP, never mind having to deliver a key introduction about US Monetary Policy looking forward, and, then having to answer a series of statements, NOT questions from congressional senators who couldn’t manage their way out of a paper bag, who additionally, can be found in the corridors of DC sitting at coffee tables staring at orange juice cartons because it’s says “concentrate”.\r\n\r\nI think at Janet Yellen’s last HH testimony last July I counted about 5 or 6 actual questions. The rest almost ran out time stating their position, never being able to ask a question…. Just a complete farce.\r\n\r\nNever mind all of that….\r\n\r\nPowell could shake out the markets within 5 minutes of starting to read his prepared statement. I will have to check is it pre-released a few hours earlier? This will be vital re: the market reaction and open trades.\r\n\r\nI will 99%, NOT trade this event but just manage LIVE trades.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\nGBP – THERESA MAY - OVERVIEW OF THE UK POST BREXIT SPEECH:</u>\r\n\r\nThe BREXIT calamity rolls on with yet another Theresa May speech stating the UK position post BREXIT.\r\n\r\nFrankly, if this speech does NOT lay it out 100%, I will be pulling out my hair…oh wait can’t do that I shaved my head. I suppose banging my head off the desk will just have to do.\r\n\r\nWe are slowly but surely getting to what the markets determine to be a HARD BREXIT. In my eyes as you are aware there has always been nothing other than a HARD BREXIT. I never really understood the need or reasoning to say SOFT BREXIT.\r\n\r\nThe facts are the same now as they were in 2016.\r\n\r\nTo avoid an EU contagion the UK will get it shoved up them like a red-hot poker up the bottom by the EU. An example will be made. No special deals, no friends with benefits deals on the side. Pure and simple a costly and difficult exercise with the EU pulling all the strings.\r\n\r\nI can see a scenario where the UK just walks away with two fingers in the air pointing towards Brussels and Frankfurt.\r\n\r\nIt has to be one hell of a speech to remove uncertainties and give clarity. Well, I for one will not be holding my breath waiting for that!!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.3. HOW I WILL APPROACH and TRADE THE MARKET THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\nI said this last week and added 559 pips! But this coming week I will be quieter than usual on both the morning updates and trade set ups.\r\n\r\nUntil the Jerome Powell testimony, I doubt I will trade unless something spectacular draws me in. After he delivers I may feel more inclined and look to add.\r\n\r\nI really want to focus on NZD and JPY trades this week. I will hold existing GBP trades where possible, I have my GBP limit orders in place to capture large downside moves.\r\n\r\nBasically, the news events this week are huge and to pre-trade them unless for very short-term trades would be crazy. I expect the markets to be range bound on Monday.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>5.3.4. MY “MACRO” TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEK AHEAD:</u>\r\n\r\nMy action plan for the week is lighter than usual for obvious reasons: -\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>Add NZD trades when appropriate.\r\nI want to add back NZD/USD and NZD/JPY trades.</li>\r\n 	<li>Add JPY trades when appropriate.\r\nLooking to add USD/JPY, CAD/JPY, AUD/JPY and possibly EUR/JPY but this pair is NOT flavour of the month for me at the moment.</li>\r\n 	<li>Maintain existing positions (if possible) with GBP trades.\r\nI will be looking to add GBP/AUD and GBP/CAD trades if possible.</li>\r\n 	<li>Formulate a strategy re: EUR long and CAD short trades.\r\nSeveral cross rates that interest me have already been stated.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nPLEASE NOTE:\r\n\r\nA great deal depends on the market reactions this week as to how busy I will be in the market with trades and trade set ups.\r\n<u>5.4. CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.4.1. CURRENT LIVE TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/LIVE-24022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-11013\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/LIVE-24022018-1024x987.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"987\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u>5.4.2. CURRENT LIMIT ORDER TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/LIMIT-24022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-11012\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/LIMIT-24022018-1024x758.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"758\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u>5.6. FX BROKER NEWS and MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\nNothing to report this week. All very quiet on the broker front apart from the continued explosion into trading “Crypto” currencies.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE FINAL SHOT:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @ThePremService\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #167 PREMIUM SERVICE\r\nDATE: 24th February 2018','CALM BEFORE THE STORM?','','inherit','closed','closed','','11021-revision-v1','','','2018-02-24 06:06:07','2018-02-24 11:06:07','',11021,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/11021-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(10872,1,'2018-01-27 07:13:37','2018-01-27 12:13:37','','FUN1 27012018','','inherit','open','closed','','fun1-27012018','','','2018-01-27 07:17:44','2018-01-27 12:17:44','',3106,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/FUN1-27012018.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(10873,1,'2018-01-27 07:13:40','2018-01-27 12:13:40','','FUN2 27012018','','inherit','open','closed','','fun2-27012018','','','2018-01-27 07:17:49','2018-01-27 12:17:49','',3106,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/FUN2-27012018.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(10874,1,'2018-01-27 07:13:44','2018-01-27 12:13:44','','POS1 27012018','','inherit','open','closed','','pos1-27012018','','','2018-01-27 07:18:24','2018-01-27 12:18:24','',6965,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/POS1-27012018.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(10875,1,'2018-01-27 07:13:47','2018-01-27 12:13:47','','POS2 27012018','','inherit','open','closed','','pos2-27012018','','','2018-01-27 07:18:34','2018-01-27 12:18:34','',6965,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/POS2-27012018.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(10876,1,'2018-01-27 07:14:39','2018-01-27 12:14:39','<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/LIVE-TRADES-27012018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10867\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/LIVE-TRADES-27012018-1024x1017.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"1017\" /></a>','Live Trades','','inherit','closed','closed','','9394-revision-v1','','','2018-01-27 07:14:39','2018-01-27 12:14:39','',9394,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/9394-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(10802,16,'2018-01-18 14:26:03','2018-01-18 19:26:03','<section class=\"one-sixth first\">\r\n<h4>Monthly and Annual Consolidated Performance Analysis :</h4>\r\n</section><section class=\"five-sixths\">\r\n<div class=\"one-half first\">\r\n<h2>This Year</h2>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"one-half\">\r\n<h2>PREVIOUS YEARS</h2>\r\n<h2>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/DECEMBER-CONS.-2017.png\"><img class=\"size-large wp-image-10715 alignnone\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/DECEMBER-CONS.-2017-851x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"851\" height=\"1024\" /></a></h2>\r\n\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/CONS-PERF-DEC2016-YTD.png\"><img class=\"alignnone size-large wp-image-8815\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/CONS-PERF-DEC2016-YTD-852x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"852\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/PS-RISK-REWARD-2015-COMP.png\"><img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-6991\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/PS-RISK-REWARD-2015-COMP.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"420\" height=\"519\" /></a>\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/PROFIT-LOSS-RATIO-2015-COMP.png\"><img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-6990\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/PROFIT-LOSS-RATIO-2015-COMP.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"400\" height=\"516\" /></a>\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/RISK-REWARD-RATIONS-2014-YTD.png\"><img class=\"alignnone size-large wp-image-8862\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/RISK-REWARD-RATIONS-2014-YTD-811x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"811\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/PL-RATIOS-2014-COMPLETE.png\"><img class=\"alignnone size-large wp-image-8861\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/PL-RATIOS-2014-COMPLETE-726x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"726\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</section>','CONSOLIDATED PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS','','inherit','closed','closed','','5002-revision-v1','','','2018-01-18 14:26:03','2018-01-18 19:26:03','',5002,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/5002-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(10298,1,'2017-10-28 06:52:47','2017-10-28 11:52:47','&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nLast week’s title for my blog was: -\r\n\r\n<strong>WILL THE ECB PULL IT OFF?</strong>\r\n\r\nThe answer was a resounding “Yes” ….\r\n\r\nDespite the odds stacked against him Mario Draghi did a modern-day Houdini act. He delivered a “THUNDERBOLT” to the markets and silenced EURO bulls inside a minute.\r\n\r\nI will comment more about this later.\r\n\r\nLast week was like the week before lots of pips and $$$ being generated, primarily on the back of NZD weakness across the board.\r\n\r\nI cleared my 4 x HEDGED trades (2 x EUR/NZD, GBP/NZD and GBP/AUD) with net profits, only to enter three more on the back of the BOC last Wednesday. I am still a believer that the USD/CAD will be going lower than 1.2000 and that the BOC will surprise hike once again. Having not hedged trades for over two years to jump in with 7 in the same month is a bit of a nose-bleed situation.\r\n\r\nI personally view HEDGING as a trading tool to effectively “park” trades that you are in, that are moving sideways or against you but FUNDAMENTALLY you believe that you are directionally correct.\r\n\r\nOn many occasions, you can be focused on trades that are “up in your face” and let other trades go by. HEDGING removes this. I hedged last Wednesday, and I am still waiting to activate my exit strategy.\r\n\r\nMoving on.\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE has now achieved its annual target of net 10,000 pips.\r\n\r\n<strong>The total for 2017 now stands at 10,702 pips</strong>\r\n\r\nI am delighted with this because I have achieved this despite the fact that I moved home this year, trekking 13 hours across Canada out of Quebec into Nova Scotia, which took up a lot of my time. Plus, the move was followed by a 25-day trip to Australia and New Zealand, moving to a new house, with all the planning and scheduling with the trip as well, certainly placed an additional stress on trading. Remote trading is at the best of time very stressful. It was when all said and done about a three-month event, therefore to hit target with over two months of the year left is pleasing.\r\n\r\nAs my good friend, Roger would say “Happy Days”, I would add “Fecking” into the middle of his little saying.\r\n\r\nThe following section was in last week’s blog and I am leaving it unchanged (except for Italics) again this week, with the added couple of comments: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>As we enter the final couple of months in 2017, If you are thinking about FX trading as an additional income stream, why not get on board now? Get used to the way I do things, get familiar with the PREMIUM SERVICE system and get ready for blast off in 2018.</li>\r\n 	<li>Between now and the end of 2017 there are still pips to be gathered and $$$ to make!</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<em>My annual target of 10,000 pips is in sight</em><em>, however, nothing can be taken for granted and given that my position sizing this year has been smaller due to the markets having greater RISK attached, my income from trading will be lower this year… but, there should be an income barring any disasters in the run up to the year end.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>My point here as I mention every year is that those of you who trade with smaller account sizes can still make some money from trading Forex.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Single MINI LOT trades                                 = USD$1.00 each\r\nPREMIUM SERVICE Annual target               = 10,000 pips</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Anticipated Gross Income                            = USD$10,000 (10,000 pips x USD$1)</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Less PREMIUM SERVICE</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Annual subscription                                       = USD$1,000 (equivalent)</em><em>\r\nNET TRADING INCOME                               = USD$9,000</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Working on the 50% rule\r\nShould you can only capture:\r\n</em><em>50% of my suggested trades\r\n</em><em>50% of my entries on time\r\n</em><em>50% of my exits on time\r\n</em><em>You could still generate a NET INCOME\r\n</em><em>after subscription                                            of USD$4,0000</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Obviously, you would need in the first year to open and adequately fund a broker account to meet the trading criteria you have set yourself. I would say to trade MINI LOT trades you would require a minimum of a USD$6,000 account for you first year after one year you should be able to trade and operate your account on trading income and then as the year’s progress increase your trading size to say 2 or 3 MINI LOTS but at the same time you must remember increased POSITION SIZES = INCREASED RISK.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>RISK MANAGEMENT is crucial to FX trading. Without it you fail.</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:\r\n\r\n\r\n</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>2.1: LOOKING BACK AT LAST WEEK’S NEWS.</u>\r\n\r\nHere is what tickled my fancy in the news last week as a currency trader.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>BOC</u></strong><u>: INTEREST RATE DECISION.\r\n\r\n</u>\r\n\r\nThe Bank of Canada left interest rates unchanged last week. This was not a complete surprise as recent financial data had been sliding away.\r\n\r\nStephen Poloz, BOC Governor, was quite dovish, but now that I understand him a little better he was really being nothing other than “matter of fact” with his language. Nevertheless, the CAD weakened like crazy, moving the USD/CAD about 150 pips higher to 1.2800. Potentially there is the chance of a 1.3000 re-test especially if you add in USD strength.\r\n\r\nWhilst, I think he sounded dovish, Poloz also amended forward forecasting quite a bit. Both the 2017 growth was revised up and the same for 2018, he also was very clear stating that less monetary stimulus would be required into the Canadian Economy.\r\n\r\nThe old chestnuts about Inflation risks to the downside, excess capacity in the Labour Market, softness in wage growth and elevated household debt all featured vis-a-vis the effects on these from higher interest rates.\r\n\r\nPoloz focused a great deal on lower inflation so reading between the lines the chances of another hike in 2017 look a little optimistic at this stage. We should not get too carried away here as 4 weeks ago we were expecting another hike this year, it could all turn around again in the next 2/3 weeks and a December move once again becomes a possibility\r\n\r\nOne thing I have learned in trading FX for 10 years is never say never; even with a Central Bank.\r\n\r\nMy bias with the CAD, referring to USD/CAD is short-term Canadian weakness to be replaced at the turn of next year at the latest with CAD strength and the USD/CAD moving back lower towards 1.2000 once again.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>EUR:</u></strong><u> ECB INTEREST RATE &amp; PRESS CONFERENCE.</u>\r\n\r\n<u>THE DRAGHI THUNDERBOLT:</u>\r\n\r\nFair play the Pizza Boy pulled it off!\r\n\r\nAs mentioned last week the forward guidance provided was pretty much in line with what Draghi regurgitated to the assembled unsullied in Frankfurt.\r\n\r\nThe key takeaway was that the asset purchases would fall from the current €60 billion per month to €30 billion per month with effect from January 2018 and run at least until September 2018 or beyond. Expiring maturing securities that the ECB currently owns will be re-invested.\r\n\r\nThe key phrase from Draghi that was used on a number of occasions was “Extended period of time”, I was looking out for a well-used FED term “Transitory” and at times I was a little distracted but I do not recall a “Transitory” being used. However, “Extended period of time” for as long as necessary featured quite a bit.\r\n\r\nDraghi stated that there would be NO interest rate increase until the end of the Asset Purchases (QE) that means October 2018 at the earliest. That was like a knife straight through the middle of all the aspiring Euro bull’s hearts.\r\n\r\nBasically, Draghi was as dovish as he could be highlighting the only thing that he could highlight as an area of concern that was keeping the ECB accommodative moving forward, that was inflation, or rather the lack of it. He could not focus on other economic data as generally speaking all EUROZONE data has been improving of late. The only blemish is inflation. This was his focus.\r\n\r\nThe EUR/USD fell on his prepared statement and subsequent Q &amp; A through his press conference just a few pips shy of 200 pips. I would say that if I still lived in Marbella, Spain I would be able to hear the “Draghi” champagne corks popping all the way from Frankfurt.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>\r\nEUR:</u></strong><u> CATALONIA.</u>\r\n\r\nThis is going to be made into a Christmas pantomime.\r\n\r\nPuidgemont was going to announce independence then he wasn\'t … wait 30 minutes longer and he was definitely going to announce it.\r\n\r\nWell…\r\n\r\nHe didn’t and the best that I can make out is that he wants more elections that Madrid won’t agree to!\r\n\r\nI think that we are back at square one.\r\n\r\nThere are meetings scheduled and discussions within the Catalan parliament but with Madrid holding all the keys now it all seems rather old news to me now.\r\n\r\nThe funniest piece of news last Friday, was that at the same time as the Catalonian government were voting on declaring independence the Madrid parliament was voting through Article 155 to take away all the powers of Catalonia.\r\n\r\nLate Friday, I noticed on the wires that Puidgemont could get a jail sentence of up to 30 years for his recent actions.\r\n\r\nYou couldn’t make this stuff up.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD</u></strong><u>: JANET YELLEN’S REPLACEMENT.</u>\r\n\r\nWho is it going to be?\r\n\r\nTake your pick.\r\n\r\nJANET YELLEN\r\nGARY COHN\r\nJEROME POWELL\r\nKEVIN WARSH\r\nJOHN TAYLOR\r\n\r\nThat was last week’s list….\r\n\r\nHere is this week’s list….\r\n\r\nJEROME POWELL\r\nJOHN TAYLOR\r\n\r\nAs far as I can gather it’s an either-or decision for the president who believes his key roles under his job description as leader of the free world are: -\r\n\r\nKeep the Stock Market going up at all costs.\r\nKeep interest rates low.\r\nArgue on twitter with as many people as possible.\r\n\r\nInsult families of service people who have made the ultimate sacrifice for their country.\r\n\r\nSlag off the press. Unless he likes the reporting its “FAKE NEWS”\r\n\r\nLast Friday an unnamed White House source said that THE DONALD was leaning towards POWELL. Is this FAKE NEWS? Rule nothing out at all. Just because BLOOMBERG who delivered the news believes that they were given an exclusive means nothing vis-à-vis this administration.\r\n\r\nThe bookies still have POWELL &amp; TAYLOR as the dream ticket possibly filling the CHAIR and VICE CHAIR roles. It could be more like a fecking nightmare for them with TRUMP as President if this is true and plays out.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2: LOOKING AHEAD TO THIS COMING WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n2.2.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ECONOMIC-DATA-29102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10267\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ECONOMIC-DATA-29102017-1024x934.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"934\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.2: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/T-CHART-29102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10268\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/T-CHART-29102017-1024x844.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"844\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.3: USD – TRADING CHARTS and COMMENTARIES: </u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>EUR/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/EURUSD-D-29102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10282\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/EURUSD-D-29102017-1024x422.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"422\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/GBPUSD-D-29102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10283\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/GBPUSD-D-29102017-1024x422.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"422\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/AUDUSD-D-29102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10281\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/AUDUSD-D-29102017-1024x422.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"422\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/NZDUSD-D-29102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10284\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/NZDUSD-D-29102017-1024x422.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"422\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCAD-D-29102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10285\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCAD-D-29102017-1024x422.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"422\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCHF-D-29102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10286\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCHF-D-29102017-1024x422.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"422\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDJPY-D-29102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10287\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDJPY-D-29102017-1024x422.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"422\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.4: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:\r\n\r\n</u>This week is packed and will be volatile, there are key events dotted throughout the week. The following are the pick from my perspective and the ones that interest me the most.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>CAD:</u></strong><u> GDP &amp; EMPLOYMENT DATA</u>.\r\n\r\nGDP is on Tuesday and the jobs data is released the same as NFP on Friday.\r\n\r\nThe CAD$ is weak following some poor data and then a very dovish BOC policy statement last week. Positioning for the CAD was very heavily based on CAD strength, I am one of those traders, in fact I have hedged my CAD short positions for the shorter term. I have NOT ruled out a hike before the end of 2017 and the data that the market feeds off has little impact on how the BOC thinks. The last interest rate hike for example was a surprise.\r\n\r\nCAD banks have re-positioned themselves, vis-à-vis their thoughts on interest rate increases and whilst in the main they see hikes early into 2018 only a couple are still believing that December 2017 should NOT be ruled out.\r\n\r\nThe data this week will either place what many would call the final nail in the coffin on no rate hikes in 2017, or if data is good maybe positioning will change.\r\n\r\nThe previous reading on GDP was 0%\r\nThis month the expectation is for 0.1%\r\nEmployment last month was +10,000\r\nThis Month the market is expecting +13,600\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP:</u></strong><u> MANUFACTURING, CONSTRUCTION &amp; SERVICES PMi.</u>\r\n\r\nMy God that was a quick month…\r\n\r\nIt only seems a week or so ago I was predicting and got right, what I am about to predict again.\r\n\r\nLast month: -\r\n\r\nManufacturing 55.1\r\nConstruction 48.1\r\nServices 53.6\r\n\r\nThis month the market expects: -\r\n\r\nManufacturing 55.9\r\nConstruction 48.9\r\nServices 53.3\r\n\r\nThis month I expect to see more of the same. Manufacturing and Construction to miss estimates and Services in line.\r\n\r\nThis information although backward looking is good from a BREXIT position, although PMi data is rather over-shadowed this week by the clatter of BOE data, none more important than the eagerly awaited interest rate decision.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP:</u></strong><u> INFLATION REPORT, INTEREST RATE, MPC VOTES &amp; CARNEY.</u>\r\n\r\nThis is it; Carneys biggest meeting so far. For me this is bigger than his 2 “mile” walk down the BOE corridor the day after the BREXIT vote, to announce more QE and a rate cut.\r\n\r\nHe is now on the brink of raising rates solely because inflation is a 3% above the 2% objective. Everything else in the UK is up in the air both politically and economically.\r\n\r\nThe GBP/USD has strengthened of late on the back of the expected rate increase, although USD strength is pulling it back towards 1.3000 again.\r\n\r\nBREXIT is still a shambles and the chances of a “NO DEAL” is quickly becoming what many believe will be the outcome. I have always said that the two-year time scale to tie up the loose ends to exit was challenging. Leave it to politicians and we have what can only be expected… a huge fu*k up.\r\n\r\nMany people have argued in the media that a 0.25% basis point increase will do nothing to stop inflation rising as it is “transitory”, if that\'s the case DO NOT raise rates!\r\n\r\nWage growth is a full 1% behind inflation and the proposed 0.25% rate increase will no doubt be passed on in full to households, increasing household debt and further pressures on family budgets will be felt.\r\n\r\nI make no apologies for raising this point again. BREXIT negotiations have NOT got past how much the divorce will cost, never mind the actual issues to address. WE haven’t even heard the word TRADE much of late. The trade deal will be so complex to manage and agree upon.\r\n\r\nCarney must see this. He must see the timetable for BREXIT = better than 50% chance of a NO DEAL. To raise interest rates with this backdrop could go down in the history books as foolish and seriously lacking of any vision.\r\n\r\nIt will be a very interesting announcement this Thursday. The market is anticipating a 0.25% rate increase and 9-0 on the MPC votes in favour of the increase.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>AUD:</u></strong><u> TRADE BALANCE &amp; RETAIL SALES.</u>\r\n\r\nPolitical calamities appear all over the globe. The Malcolm Turnbull government has now lost control of parliament following a legal intervention precluding dual nationality citizens living in Australia the ability to represent in parliament.\r\n\r\nThe High court ruled that Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce is ineligible to remain in Parliament as he has both Aussie and Kiwi citizenships. A bi-election now takes place and Turnbull is now looking for support from minorities to vote with his party to keep the government in play.\r\n\r\nThis political development over hangs the economic data with the view to sentiment moving forward as rallies will probably be sold into should data releases be good for the economy. The political uncertainty will trump economic data and therefore I would use rallies as selling opportunities.\r\n\r\nThe numbers expected are:\r\n\r\nRetail Sales 0.6% last month was a dreadful -0.5%\r\nTrade balance AUD$1.20 Billion versus last month AUD$0.99 Billion\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD:</u></strong><u> ADP, NON-FARM EMPLOYMENT DATA &amp; AVERAGE EARNINGS.</u>\r\n\r\nThe TRUMP circus continues, with the next round of U.S. employment data. The focus will be on average hourly earnings to see if the economy can generate some inflation.\r\n\r\nJanet Yellen’s “transitory” beliefs will be put to the test as we hit the next round of Inflation and jobs data.\r\n\r\nWe all wait with baited breath.\r\n\r\nBottom line, she is raising rates in December come hell or very high water.\r\n\r\nADP Expected 191,000, last month it was 135,000.\r\nNFP Expected 311,000, last month it was -33,000.\r\nAverage Hourly Earnings this month 0.2% last month it was 0.5%\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.5: HOW TO PLAY THE MARKET THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\nWe are jam packed with news events this coming week so you will probably not be too surprised with my thoughts for the coming week\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>The EUR/USD has triggered a Head and Shoulders pattern. It will NOT be a straightforward drop lower to its measured move target. At the same time the DXY (USD Index) has an inverted Head and Shoulders pattern in play (see chart below). This will NOT be a fast move higher either.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/DXY-29102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10269\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/DXY-29102017-1024x493.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"493\" /></a></li>\r\n 	<li>The appointment of the FED CHAIR / VICE CHAIR rumoured to be POWELL / TAYLOR, the “dream team” ticket is being viewed widely as USD positive.\r\n\r\nThis news if released this week should therefore support the Inverted Head and Shoulders move with the DXY.</li>\r\n 	<li>For good measure, we have an FOMC Statement this week. How many “transitory’s” will there be this time around. Yellen will probably announce at this release that she is NOT extending her stay at the FED beyond February 2018.\r\n\r\nWill the FOMC be USD positive? I would say YES. She cannot suddenly turn dovish after her last Oscar winning performance… or can she?</li>\r\n 	<li>S. employment is always a bit of a lottery and last month the adverse weather was used in advance to say that the numbers should be treated basically as meaningless.\r\n\r\nThis month however a more usual number is expected. The question is will it be USD positive or negative?\r\n\r\nIf I knew the answer to that question, I would not be writing this blog!</li>\r\n 	<li>We have a major BOE announcement on Thursday. How Carney deals with the peripherals not as much the rate decision is of greater importance to me moving forward.\r\n\r\nNevertheless; this is the MAJOR piece of data this week. However, GBP moves should remain very focused to GBP related pairs.</li>\r\n 	<li>We have CAD jobs at the same time as NFP, the opportunity for a double whammy exists with the CAD should the Cad jobs data be weak and the US data strong.\r\n\r\nMoves with antipodean currencies on NZD and AUD should just affect local crosses as well.\r\n\r\nI would view any “RIPS” with AUD and NZD opportunities to sell into and obtain good shorting prices.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSUMMARY:\r\n\r\nWhen you look at my bullet points I am giving a very USD positive (strength) viewpoint and for the time being I am biased that way. However, DO NOT LEAP in with full sized positions and here is why.\r\n\r\nTRUMP is on a goodwill mission to Asia at the end of the week, heaping TRUMP LOVE all over Asia.\r\n\r\nTRUMP is full of himself, full of shite and full of bravado, he is a Mr. Magoo character, leaving chaos and disorder behind wherever he treads. He cannot help himself. The TWEETS will be flowing. Before he leaves, the TWEETS about how great he is will be flowing.\r\n\r\nTrade smaller positions, stay on your toes. TRUMP has a FED announcement before he goes on his “goodwill Trip” and nothing ever passes off smoothly.\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, as time has moved forward his true colours are being displayed and having given him the benefit of the doubt for so long, my opinion of him is just that he is no more than at best a walking, talking, tweeting hemorrhoid. I am sure he must have great qualities somewhere, but I can’t see them.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nLook at cross-rate pairs to trade and stay away from currencies that will be directly affected by TRUMP fuck ups… USD, JPY and CHF.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is my own subscriber based Forex support service that offers subscribers my suggested trade set-ups and market commentaries.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting the HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE tab.\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 180px;\"><u>CURRENT 2017 PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nLAST WEEKS PIP TOTAL:            +1,543 net pips\r\nOCTOBER 2017 TO DATE:           +2,655 net pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE 2017:                    +10,702 net pips\r\n</p>\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs on my website  <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\nAlternatively, if you prefer to watch a video recording about the PREMIUM SERVICE, click the link below. You will be directed to a 40-minute webinar presentation entitled “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE”.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS ONLY:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4.1: TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>4.2: SENTIMENT CHART,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.3: EXISTING CORE TRADES (PLANS &amp; STRATEGIES):</u>\r\n\r\n<u> </u><u>4.4: CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.5: FX BROKER NEWS with their MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FINISHING LINE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5.1: WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you have read in this blog and would like the chance to win a FREE SUBSCRIPTION valued at CAD$150.00, all you need to do is subscribe to my FREE NEWSLETTER (this blog), by adding your email address on my welcome page just below my cube logo at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\n<u>5.2: PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTIONS:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you’ve read in this blog and should you want to go a stage further and subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE, this can be done on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the Tab SUBSCRIBE HERE.\r\n\r\nSubscribing to the PREMIUM SERVICE is not just about receiving a larger “DRIVE THRU” blog packed with more trading supporting information, my thoughts and ideas. There is much more to a subscription than those things. Check it all out under the tab HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nAlternatively, if you prefer to watch a video recording about the PREMIUM SERVICE, click the link below. You will be directed to a 40-minute webinar presentation entitled “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE”.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\r\n</a>\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n5.3: CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #257 FREE NEWSLETTER\r\n29th October 2017\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','THE DRAGHI THUNDERBOLT','','inherit','closed','closed','','10297-revision-v1','','','2017-10-28 06:52:47','2017-10-28 11:52:47','',10297,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/10297-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(10735,1,'2017-12-23 12:54:36','2017-12-23 17:54:36','&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 16pt;\"><strong>CHANGES IN TRADE STYLE DEFINITIONS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nAs you will be aware from my recent email, as well as adding MOMENTUM TRADES to my trading options next year, I have reviewed the TRADE STYLE definitions for 2018. I am positive believing that these changes will help those of you who are less RISK orientated to minimize overall RISK.\r\n\r\nWith these changes, it allows me to be defined with POSITION TRADE trading limits. Moving forward, the Monthly ATR will feature more and more with POSITION TRADES. This was an issue for some of you operating with smaller broker accounts as these trades were eating up margin.  The changes that I am making means that you can select what POSITION TRADES you want to participate in, and instead of accounting for 50% of my trades this will be reduced next year to around 20%.\r\n\r\nFor those of you wanting an increased RISK, I have decided after testing to introduce MOMENTUM TRADES.\r\n\r\nPlease note; I am NOT abandoning RISK MANAGEMENT by introducing this trade style. I have tested these trades for over four months knowing that I would be making changes in definitions to trades in 2018 and I can work with these inside my successful TRADE PLAN definitions.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 16pt;\"><strong>MY MACRO (FUNDAMENTAL) THOUGHTS FOR 2018:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nI am going to keep this brief and straightforward.\r\n\r\nThose of you who have been following me for sometime know that I am old school in the sense that I believe that the biggest impact on the direction of any currency is its Central Bank.\r\n\r\nIt’s really obvious, but sometimes it is lost in the grand scheme of things. My macro thoughts moving into 2018 are very much based on Central bank monetary policy.\r\n\r\nInitially, my thoughts were centered around Central Bank policy divergence, and whilst this is still a consideration, one should be mindful of the fact that there is a momentum amongst Central Bank governors to move to a more neutral / normalization route regarding monetary policy. With this shift, some of the forward guidance provided, in my opinion, can be treated with a pinch of salt, however, reading the statements in detail, which can be painful at times, gives the insight and direction intended, which in turn should give longer-term FX traders confidence.\r\n\r\nI am comforted by the fact the Central Banks are like the super oil-tankers that you see on the oceans of the world that require a turning circle of 12 miles to change direction and about 3 miles to come to a complete stop. Central Banks tend to be similar, directions are not choppy. Markets demand uncertainty and direction. They require a consistency to ensure price stabilities and investment confidence from business.\r\n\r\nWith the above in mind, looking into 2018, I want to focus POSITION TRADING into just 4 currencies: - GBP, CAD, AUD and NZD.\r\n\r\nI believe that the associated Central Banks will offer the best FX opportunities moving through 2018.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 16pt;\"><strong>REASONS FOR CHOOSING THESE CURRENCIES:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nI am keeping these as straightforward and as basic as possible. I see no need to get into too much “nitty gritty” as it only increases the complexities, which I want to avoid.\r\n\r\nWhen looking at these currencies, I have looked at the recent economic indicators like GDP, CPi, Confidence numbers etc. However, sometimes external geopolitical factors can influence policy just as much and so my reasons for selecting these currencies are a combination of factors.\r\n\r\nFundamentals are crucial in selection as one set of stats does NOT make a trend. I have looked at and viewed data over the previous 12 months and in addition, looked ahead using Central bank projections and guidance from press conferences and statement releases to give me the best overall picture possible.\r\n\r\n<u>BOC – CAD:</u>\r\n\r\nStephen Poloz, BOC Governor, really pissed me off this year without showing balls by sticking to his principles. Probably for all the right reasons he tried to temper CAD strength but in reality, with the US being the border neighbour and the FED hell bent on raising interest rates come what may, it was only a matter of time before he had to get a little more bullish.\r\n\r\nThe BOC will have to maintain the status quo vis-à-vis interest rates to the FED. It is NOT an unwritten rule but historically it just happens.\r\n\r\nTherefore, I can see 3 x interest rate hikes from the BOC in 2018, Q1, Q2 and Q4.\r\n\r\n<u>RBA – AUD:</u>\r\n\r\nI was in Sydney earlier this year and my wife and I had dinner with an ex. PREMIUM SERVICE subscriber and his girlfriend, who, by coincidence worked at the RBA. Whilst no secrets were given away it was obvious that as Glenn Stevens’s replacement Philip Lowe, RBA Governor was extremely highly thought of and very well respected.\r\n\r\nThis has stuck with me through 2017 and reading the RBA statements the theme is consistent and this has been reflected in the moves of the AUD currency.\r\n\r\nMoving forward in 2018 this is the Central Bank, I believe could be the pick. I see the RBA having to keep pace with other Central banks to normalize, whilst they may be a little reluctant to join the party. The AUD economy is growing, it has strength and maybe in Q1 but definitely in Q2 I can see a policy change and a series of interest rates being factored in.\r\n\r\n<u>RNBZ – NZD:</u>\r\n\r\nTo a strengthening Kiwi dollar Adrian Orr has been announced as Graeme Wheeler’s full-time replacement from March 2018, taking over from the temporary Grant Spencer as governor of the RBNZ.\r\n\r\nHe has a hell of job on his hands. A new Left Labour Government in place, with a whole host of ideas, and changes in the works with its coalition partner NZ first, a populist party.\r\n\r\nChanges in RBNZ responsibilities are targeted despite the poo-pooing of all changes by Grant Spencer of late. It was blatantly obvious that he was old school, nothing to change here approach we are just fine as we are thank you very much!\r\n\r\nIt has been stated because of the political uncertainty and the desire to keep stability in the markets that the RBNZ would be on hold for an extended period of time. I can see and understand this, however, at some point the RBNZ will be forced somewhat to react to the RBA to keep the currency balance intact.\r\n\r\nFor this reason, I can see the RBNZ moving higher in the latter part of 2017, maybe Q3 but definitely Q4.\r\n\r\n<u>BOE - GBP:</u>\r\n\r\nOf the four currencies selected, this is without any fear the one with the greatest RISKS attached to it. If we were playing “It’s a Knock-out”, this would be my joker.\r\n\r\nThe UK is moving through the BREXIT process. We now see Theresa May move to phase two in Q1 2018, after basically giving the EU what they wanted in phase one and agreeing to kick the can down the road on borders (IRELAND / NORTHERN IRELAND and SPAIN / GIBRALTAR).\r\n\r\nFrom a Forex perspective, the whole FX world is looking to capitalize on what is expected to be a strengthening move in cable back towards the pre-BREXIT vote levels. In principle, agree with this thought process, although, I do as you all know think that at any time the GBP currency is always moments away from a negative statement that could have a negative effect on the GBP.\r\n\r\nIn complete understanding of this fact, I still see the GBP longer-term a “BUY THE DIP” currency. As the BREXIT process moves forward, I see the positives more than out weighing the negatives, although it will be a bumpy road back in the GBP/USD towards the 1.4500 - 1.5000 levels, I do believe that is where we are eventually heading.\r\n\r\nTiming will be everything with this trade.\r\n\r\nThe recent GDP data from the UK shows GDP at 1.7% y/y, although moving forward BREXIT headwinds show GDP in 2018 slowing down to 1.5%. This will be lagging the EUROZONE. However, the UK economy is not in the poor shape predicted by the “REMAINERS” during the referendum. The downside RISK just never materialized. It is holding up and performing regardless.\r\n\r\nThe big question in the UK from my perspective surrounds confidence. Should the UK economy continue to stabilize the UK economic outlook should get rosier as it realizes that there is life after BREXIT. This should in turn drive the BOE to move to normalize and over time talk about removing its QE (Quantitative Easing) support. All of this combined should boost the GBP.\r\n\r\nWill the BOE raise rates in 2018? My brain says no, but, it cannot be ruled out towards the end of 2018 should the headline inflation rate NOT fall as predicted and the gap between inflation and wages not get smaller.\r\n\r\nNevertheless, I do have concerns.\r\n\r\nWhilst I see the GBP strengthening in 2018. In March 2019 when the BREXIT deal is completed we enter a two-year transition. This is an uncertain period in my opinion. I envisage the political mud flying left and right as the reality of BREXIT hits home and the accusations will start flying as only politicians can do. The actual outcome WILL BE different from what everyone believed it would be. This is unavoidable.\r\n\r\nSo, my long GBP trade would not start until possibly Q2 2018 and reviewed prior to March 2019.\r\n\r\nThis currency pair does have greater RISK attached to it and it may not actually get off the line.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 16pt;\"><strong> THE PAIRS I HAVE SELECTED… SO FAR:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nI have my list of pairs at hand and I have preliminary charts drawn with my preferred first choice entry levels. Obviously, I have my second and third choice entry levels as well.\r\n\r\nThe targets are known and my stop loss levels will in the main be in line with Monthly ATR levels at the extreme but NOT in all cases.\r\n\r\n<u>CAD PAIRS</u>: - USD/CAD and CAD/JPY\r\n\r\n<u>AUD PAIRS</u>: - AUD/USD and AUD/NZD.\r\n\r\n<u>NZD PAIRS</u>: - NZD/USD.\r\n\r\n<u>GBP PAIRS</u>: -  GBP/USD, GBP/NZD, EUR/GBP and GBP/CHF.\r\n\r\nObviously, one can go mad adding more and more currency pair options, and, maybe as the year progresses I will see better opportunities lie elsewhere but for now my focus is on the above.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 16pt;\"><strong> TIMINGS and VOLUMES:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nBasically, I see this as a process commencing in January / February 2018. Whilst, for obvious reasons I cannot give exact timings, I do see this process gathering momentum early into 2018.\r\n\r\nBelow are my initial thoughts on when POSITION TRADES are likely to be more intensive with the currencies chosen.\r\n\r\nQ1: AUD and CAD\r\n\r\nQ2: GBP\r\n\r\nQ3: NZD\r\n\r\nQ4: N/A\r\n\r\nNOTE: - One must be flexible here with timing of the entries. Especially with the GBP, it’s not as much a question of being in trades but also its about when NOT to be in trades. The other currencies are not as “mental / volatile” with price movement as the cable and therefore some patience will be required waiting for trade set ups to trigger.\r\n\r\nIn 2017, I never really allowed POSITION TRADES to move forward, and being self-critical apart from the AUD/NZD, I allowed the shorter-term market influences to dictate. My goal next year will be based on less is more, with regards to allowing trades to move around inside the ATR limits.\r\n\r\nThis approach does appeal to part-time traders and those of you who do not have free access to check progress of trades on a regular basis.\r\n\r\nMoving forward, instead of POSITION TRADES counting for close to 50% of trades this will be reduced closer to 20% of the overall volume moving forward.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 16pt;\"><strong> FINAL THOUGHTS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nFinally, I am really looking forward to 2018. I have no major travel plans or conferences scheduled so at the time of writing it should be a full-on trading year. The usual suspects of RISK, ACCOUNT and HEAD MANAGEMENT will be vital and working within my TRADE PLAN one of my critical success factors.\r\n\r\nThe target is once again 10,000 pips and as the 2017 PREMIUM SERVICE closed yesterday, December 22nd, the clock is now ticking on a new trading year.\r\n\r\nAll that remains is to wish you and your families and loved ones a very Happy Christmas and to you have a great trading year in 2018.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @ThePremService\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\r\n</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: PREMIUM SERVICE\r\nBLOG REFERENCE NUMBER: #160\r\nDATE: 23rd December 2017\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','LONGER-TERM (POSITION) TRADING 2018','','publish','open','closed','','longer-term-position-trading-2018','','','2018-01-18 13:56:46','2018-01-18 18:56:46','',0,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?post_type=member_posts&#038;p=10735',0,'member_posts','',0),(10736,1,'2017-12-23 12:54:36','2017-12-23 17:54:36','&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 16pt;\"><strong>CHANGES IN TRADE STYLE DEFINITIONS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nAs you will be aware from my recent email, as well as adding MOMENTUM TRADES to my trading options next year, I have reviewed the TRADE STYLE definitions for 2018. I am positive believing that these changes will help those of you who are less RISK orientated to minimize overall RISK.\r\n\r\nWith these changes, it allows me to be defined with POSITION TRADE trading limits. Moving forward, the Monthly ATR will feature more and more with POSITION TRADES. This was an issue for some of you operating with smaller broker accounts as these trades were eating up margin.  The changes that I am making means that you can select what POSITION TRADES you want to participate in, and instead of accounting for 50% of my trades this will be reduced next year to around 20%.\r\n\r\nFor those of you wanting an increased RISK, I have decided after testing to introduce MOMENTUM TRADES.\r\n\r\nPlease note; I am NOT abandoning RISK MANAGEMENT by introducing this trade style. I have tested these trades for over four months knowing that I would be making changes in definitions to trades in 2018 and I can work with these inside my successful TRADE PLAN definitions.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 16pt;\"><strong>MY MACRO (FUNDAMENTAL) THOUGHTS FOR 2018:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nI am going to keep this brief and straightforward.\r\n\r\nThose of you who have been following me for sometime know that I am old school in the sense that I believe that the biggest impact on the direction of any currency is its Central Bank.\r\n\r\nIt’s really obvious, but sometimes it is lost in the grand scheme of things. My macro thoughts moving into 2018 are very much based on Central bank monetary policy.\r\n\r\nInitially, my thoughts were centered around Central Bank policy divergence, and whilst this is still a consideration, one should be mindful of the fact that there is a momentum amongst Central Bank governors to move to a more neutral / normalization route regarding monetary policy. With this shift, some of the forward guidance provided, in my opinion, can be treated with a pinch of salt, however, reading the statements in detail, which can be painful at times, gives the insight and direction intended, which in turn should give longer-term FX traders confidence.\r\n\r\nI am comforted by the fact the Central Banks are like the super oil-tankers that you see on the oceans of the world that require a turning circle of 12 miles to change direction and about 3 miles to come to a complete stop. Central Banks tend to be similar, directions are not choppy. Markets demand uncertainty and direction. They require a consistency to ensure price stabilities and investment confidence from business.\r\n\r\nWith the above in mind, looking into 2018, I want to focus POSITION TRADING into just 4 currencies: - GBP, CAD, AUD and NZD.\r\n\r\nI believe that the associated Central Banks will offer the best FX opportunities moving through 2018.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 16pt;\"><strong>REASONS FOR CHOOSING THESE CURRENCIES:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nI am keeping these as straightforward and as basic as possible. I see no need to get into too much “nitty gritty” as it only increases the complexities, which I want to avoid.\r\n\r\nWhen looking at these currencies, I have looked at the recent economic indicators like GDP, CPi, Confidence numbers etc. However, sometimes external geopolitical factors can influence policy just as much and so my reasons for selecting these currencies are a combination of factors.\r\n\r\nFundamentals are crucial in selection as one set of stats does NOT make a trend. I have looked at and viewed data over the previous 12 months and in addition, looked ahead using Central bank projections and guidance from press conferences and statement releases to give me the best overall picture possible.\r\n\r\n<u>BOC – CAD:</u>\r\n\r\nStephen Poloz, BOC Governor, really pissed me off this year without showing balls by sticking to his principles. Probably for all the right reasons he tried to temper CAD strength but in reality, with the US being the border neighbour and the FED hell bent on raising interest rates come what may, it was only a matter of time before he had to get a little more bullish.\r\n\r\nThe BOC will have to maintain the status quo vis-à-vis interest rates to the FED. It is NOT an unwritten rule but historically it just happens.\r\n\r\nTherefore, I can see 3 x interest rate hikes from the BOC in 2018, Q1, Q2 and Q4.\r\n\r\n<u>RBA – AUD:</u>\r\n\r\nI was in Sydney earlier this year and my wife and I had dinner with an ex. PREMIUM SERVICE subscriber and his girlfriend, who, by coincidence worked at the RBA. Whilst no secrets were given away it was obvious that as Glenn Stevens’s replacement Philip Lowe, RBA Governor was extremely highly thought of and very well respected.\r\n\r\nThis has stuck with me through 2017 and reading the RBA statements the theme is consistent and this has been reflected in the moves of the AUD currency.\r\n\r\nMoving forward in 2018 this is the Central Bank, I believe could be the pick. I see the RBA having to keep pace with other Central banks to normalize, whilst they may be a little reluctant to join the party. The AUD economy is growing, it has strength and maybe in Q1 but definitely in Q2 I can see a policy change and a series of interest rates being factored in.\r\n\r\n<u>RNBZ – NZD:</u>\r\n\r\nTo a strengthening Kiwi dollar Adrian Orr has been announced as Graeme Wheeler’s full-time replacement from March 2018, taking over from the temporary Grant Spencer as governor of the RBNZ.\r\n\r\nHe has a hell of job on his hands. A new Left Labour Government in place, with a whole host of ideas, and changes in the works with its coalition partner NZ first, a populist party.\r\n\r\nChanges in RBNZ responsibilities are targeted despite the poo-pooing of all changes by Grant Spencer of late. It was blatantly obvious that he was old school, nothing to change here approach we are just fine as we are thank you very much!\r\n\r\nIt has been stated because of the political uncertainty and the desire to keep stability in the markets that the RBNZ would be on hold for an extended period of time. I can see and understand this, however, at some point the RBNZ will be forced somewhat to react to the RBA to keep the currency balance intact.\r\n\r\nFor this reason, I can see the RBNZ moving higher in the latter part of 2017, maybe Q3 but definitely Q4.\r\n\r\n<u>BOE - GBP:</u>\r\n\r\nOf the four currencies selected, this is without any fear the one with the greatest RISKS attached to it. If we were playing “It’s a Knock-out”, this would be my joker.\r\n\r\nThe UK is moving through the BREXIT process. We now see Theresa May move to phase two in Q1 2018, after basically giving the EU what they wanted in phase one and agreeing to kick the can down the road on borders (IRELAND / NORTHERN IRELAND and SPAIN / GIBRALTAR).\r\n\r\nFrom a Forex perspective, the whole FX world is looking to capitalize on what is expected to be a strengthening move in cable back towards the pre-BREXIT vote levels. In principle, agree with this thought process, although, I do as you all know think that at any time the GBP currency is always moments away from a negative statement that could have a negative effect on the GBP.\r\n\r\nIn complete understanding of this fact, I still see the GBP longer-term a “BUY THE DIP” currency. As the BREXIT process moves forward, I see the positives more than out weighing the negatives, although it will be a bumpy road back in the GBP/USD towards the 1.4500 - 1.5000 levels, I do believe that is where we are eventually heading.\r\n\r\nTiming will be everything with this trade.\r\n\r\nThe recent GDP data from the UK shows GDP at 1.7% y/y, although moving forward BREXIT headwinds show GDP in 2018 slowing down to 1.5%. This will be lagging the EUROZONE. However, the UK economy is not in the poor shape predicted by the “REMAINERS” during the referendum. The downside RISK just never materialized. It is holding up and performing regardless.\r\n\r\nThe big question in the UK from my perspective surrounds confidence. Should the UK economy continue to stabilize the UK economic outlook should get rosier as it realizes that there is life after BREXIT. This should in turn drive the BOE to move to normalize and over time talk about removing its QE (Quantitative Easing) support. All of this combined should boost the GBP.\r\n\r\nWill the BOE raise rates in 2018? My brain says no, but, it cannot be ruled out towards the end of 2018 should the headline inflation rate NOT fall as predicted and the gap between inflation and wages not get smaller.\r\n\r\nNevertheless, I do have concerns.\r\n\r\nWhilst I see the GBP strengthening in 2018. In March 2019 when the BREXIT deal is completed we enter a two-year transition. This is an uncertain period in my opinion. I envisage the political mud flying left and right as the reality of BREXIT hits home and the accusations will start flying as only politicians can do. The actual outcome WILL BE different from what everyone believed it would be. This is unavoidable.\r\n\r\nSo, my long GBP trade would not start until possibly Q2 2018 and reviewed prior to March 2019.\r\n\r\nThis currency pair does have greater RISK attached to it and it may not actually get off the line.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 16pt;\"><strong> THE PAIRS I HAVE SELECTED… SO FAR:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nI have my list of pairs at hand and I have preliminary charts drawn with my preferred first choice entry levels. Obviously, I have my second and third choice entry levels as well.\r\n\r\nThe targets are known and my stop loss levels will in the main be in line with Monthly ATR levels at the extreme but NOT in all cases.\r\n\r\n<u>CAD PAIRS</u>: - USD/CAD and CAD/JPY\r\n\r\n<u>AUD PAIRS</u>: - AUD/USD and AUD/NZD.\r\n\r\n<u>NZD PAIRS</u>: - NZD/USD.\r\n\r\n<u>GBP PAIRS</u>: -  GBP/USD, GBP/NZD, EUR/GBP and GBP/CHF.\r\n\r\nObviously, one can go mad adding more and more currency pair options, and, maybe as the year progresses I will see better opportunities lie elsewhere but for now my focus is on the above.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 16pt;\"><strong> TIMINGS and VOLUMES:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nBasically, I see this as a process commencing in January / February 2018. Whilst, for obvious reasons I cannot give exact timings, I do see this process gathering momentum early into 2018.\r\n\r\nBelow are my initial thoughts on when POSITION TRADES are likely to be more intensive with the currencies chosen.\r\n\r\nQ1: AUD and CAD\r\n\r\nQ2: GBP\r\n\r\nQ3: NZD\r\n\r\nQ4: N/A\r\n\r\nNOTE: - One must be flexible here with timing of the entries. Especially with the GBP, it’s not as much a question of being in trades but also its about when NOT to be in trades. The other currencies are not as “mental / volatile” with price movement as the cable and therefore some patience will be required waiting for trade set ups to trigger.\r\n\r\nIn 2017, I never really allowed POSITION TRADES to move forward, and being self-critical apart from the AUD/NZD, I allowed the shorter-term market influences to dictate. My goal next year will be based on less is more, with regards to allowing trades to move around inside the ATR limits.\r\n\r\nThis approach does appeal to part-time traders and those of you who do not have free access to check progress of trades on a regular basis.\r\n\r\nMoving forward, instead of POSITION TRADES counting for close to 50% of trades this will be reduced closer to 20% of the overall volume moving forward.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 16pt;\"><strong> FINAL THOUGHTS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nFinally, I am really looking forward to 2018. I have no major travel plans or conferences scheduled so at the time of writing it should be a full-on trading year. The usual suspects of RISK, ACCOUNT and HEAD MANAGEMENT will be vital and working within my TRADE PLAN one of my critical success factors.\r\n\r\nThe target is once again 10,000 pips and as the 2017 PREMIUM SERVICE closed yesterday, December 22nd, the clock is now ticking on a new trading year.\r\n\r\nAll that remains is to wish you and your families and loved ones a very Happy Christmas and to you have a great trading year in 2018.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @ThePremService\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\r\n</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: PREMIUM SERVICE\r\nBLOG REFERENCE NUMBER: #160\r\nDATE: 23rd December 2017\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','LONGER-TERM (POSITION) TRADING 2018','','inherit','closed','closed','','10735-revision-v1','','','2017-12-23 12:54:36','2017-12-23 17:54:36','',10735,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/10735-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(10737,1,'2017-12-23 13:37:35','2017-12-23 18:37:35','<strong>\r\n<span style=\"font-size: 16pt;\">PREMIUM SERVICE REVIEW OF 2017:</span></strong>\r\n\r\nWithout doubt 2017 was not an easy year for me from a trading perspective. I had a house move from Quebec to Atlantic Canada plus immediately following the house move a trip to Australia and New Zealand in connection with my wife’s business, on the back of which we added a vacation.\r\n\r\nAt the end of July 2017, the idea of achieving my 10,000-pip annual target looked to be a tall order.\r\n\r\nPREMIUM SERVICE KEY RESULTS:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>2017 PIP TOTAL = 12,220 pips</li>\r\n 	<li>75% trades positive and 25% trades were loss making trades. This was in line with my objective.</li>\r\n 	<li>From single-lot trading, both MINI and STANDARD lot traders both saw excellent returns.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nFor more details on the 2017 PREMIUM SERVICE, please go to my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> landing page and check out the HISTORY tab.\r\n\r\nThere is also a very special promotion in place for new subscribers to the PREMIUM SERVICE in 2018 under the PROMOTIONS tab.\r\n\r\nPlease note, all new subscriptions paid for now will be given full access to the PREMIUM SERVICE however, the date of your subscription will not start until January 8th, 2018.\r\n\r\nThe rest of this blog was intended for PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers only, as it was based around intended changes to my longer-term trading via POSITION TRADES in 2018.\r\n\r\nI decided that it may be of interest to other traders who are considering joining the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\nPOSITION TRADES should account for about 20% of my overall trades next year. They are longer-term and may suit traders who cannot access their computers on a regular basis and prefer just to check on progress once or twice a day.\r\n\r\nCombined with the current PREMIUM SERVICE subscriber PROMOTION, this may be an option worth considering for 2018.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-size: 18pt;\"><strong>PREMIUM SERVICE\r\nPOSITION TRADING 2018:</strong></span></p>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 16pt;\"><strong>MY MACRO (FUNDAMENTAL) THOUGHTS FOR 2018:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nI am going to keep this brief and straightforward.\r\n\r\nThose of you who have been following me for sometime know that I am old school in the sense that I believe that the biggest impact on the direction of any currency is its Central Bank.\r\n\r\nIt’s really obvious, but sometimes it is lost in the grand scheme of things. My macro thoughts moving into 2018 are very much based on Central bank monetary policy.\r\n\r\nInitially, my thoughts were centered around Central Bank policy divergence, and whilst this is still a consideration, one should be mindful of the fact that there is a momentum amongst Central Bank governors to move to a more neutral / normalization route regarding monetary policy. With this shift, some of the forward guidance provided, in my opinion, can be treated with a pinch of salt, however, reading the statements in detail, which can be painful at times, gives the insight and direction intended, which in turn should give longer-term FX traders confidence.\r\n\r\nI am comforted by the fact the Central Banks are like the super oil-tankers that you see on the oceans of the world that require a turning circle of 12 miles to change direction and about 3 miles to come to a complete stop. Central Banks tend to be similar, directions are not choppy. Markets demand uncertainty and direction. They require a consistency to ensure price stabilities and investment confidence from business.\r\n\r\nWith the above in mind, looking into 2018, I want to focus POSITION TRADING into just 4 currencies: - GBP, CAD, AUD and NZD.\r\n\r\nI believe that the associated Central Banks will offer the best FX opportunities moving through 2018.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 16pt;\"><strong>REASONS FOR CHOOSING THESE CURRENCIES:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nI am keeping these as straightforward and as basic as possible. I see no need to get into too much “nitty gritty” as it only increases the complexities, which I want to avoid.\r\n\r\nWhen looking at these currencies, I have looked at the recent economic indicators like GDP, CPi, Confidence numbers etc. However, sometimes external geopolitical factors can influence policy just as much and so my reasons for selecting these currencies are a combination of factors.\r\n\r\nFundamentals are crucial in selection as one set of stats does NOT make a trend. I have looked at and viewed data over the previous 12 months and in addition, looked ahead using Central bank projections and guidance from press conferences and statement releases to give me the best overall picture possible.\r\n\r\n<u>BOC – CAD:</u>\r\n\r\nStephen Poloz, BOC Governor, really pissed me off this year without showing balls by sticking to his principles. Probably for all the right reasons he tried to temper CAD strength but in reality, with the US being the border neighbour and the FED hell bent on raising interest rates come what may, it was only a matter of time before he had to get a little more bullish.\r\n\r\nThe BOC will have to maintain the status quo vis-à-vis interest rates to the FED. It is NOT an unwritten rule but historically it just happens.\r\n\r\nTherefore, I can see 3 x interest rate hikes from the BOC in 2018, Q1, Q2 and Q4.\r\n\r\n<u>RBA – AUD:</u>\r\n\r\nI was in Sydney earlier this year and my wife and I had dinner with an ex. PREMIUM SERVICE subscriber and his girlfriend, who, by coincidence worked at the RBA. Whilst no secrets were given away it was obvious that as Glenn Stevens’s replacement Philip Lowe, RBA Governor was extremely highly thought of and very well respected.\r\n\r\nThis has stuck with me through 2017 and reading the RBA statements the theme is consistent and this has been reflected in the moves of the AUD currency.\r\n\r\nMoving forward in 2018 this is the Central Bank, I believe could be the pick. I see the RBA having to keep pace with other Central banks to normalize, whilst they may be a little reluctant to join the party. The AUD economy is growing, it has strength and maybe in Q1 but definitely in Q2 I can see a policy change and a series of interest rates being factored in.\r\n\r\n<u>RNBZ – NZD:</u>\r\n\r\nTo a strengthening Kiwi dollar Adrian Orr has been announced as Graeme Wheeler’s full-time replacement from March 2018, taking over from the temporary Grant Spencer as governor of the RBNZ.\r\n\r\nHe has a hell of job on his hands. A new Left Labour Government in place, with a whole host of ideas, and changes in the works with its coalition partner NZ first, a populist party.\r\n\r\nChanges in RBNZ responsibilities are targeted despite the poo-pooing of all changes by Grant Spencer of late. It was blatantly obvious that he was old school, nothing to change here approach we are just fine as we are thank you very much!\r\n\r\nIt has been stated because of the political uncertainty and the desire to keep stability in the markets that the RBNZ would be on hold for an extended period of time. I can see and understand this, however, at some point the RBNZ will be forced somewhat to react to the RBA to keep the currency balance intact.\r\n\r\nFor this reason, I can see the RBNZ moving higher in the latter part of 2017, maybe Q3 but definitely Q4.\r\n\r\n<u>BOE - GBP:</u>\r\n\r\nOf the four currencies selected, this is without any fear the one with the greatest RISKS attached to it. If we were playing “It’s a Knock-out”, this would be my joker.\r\n\r\nThe UK is moving through the BREXIT process. We now see Theresa May move to phase two in Q1 2018, after basically giving the EU what they wanted in phase one and agreeing to kick the can down the road on borders (IRELAND / NORTHERN IRELAND and SPAIN / GIBRALTAR).\r\n\r\nFrom a Forex perspective, the whole FX world is looking to capitalize on what is expected to be a strengthening move in cable back towards the pre-BREXIT vote levels. In principle, agree with this thought process, although, I do as you all know think that at any time the GBP currency is always moments away from a negative statement that could have a negative effect on the GBP.\r\n\r\nIn complete understanding of this fact, I still see the GBP longer-term a “BUY THE DIP” currency. As the BREXIT process moves forward, I see the positives more than out weighing the negatives, although it will be a bumpy road back in the GBP/USD towards the 1.4500 - 1.5000 levels, I do believe that is where we are eventually heading.\r\n\r\nTiming will be everything with this trade.\r\n\r\nThe recent GDP data from the UK shows GDP at 1.7% y/y, although moving forward BREXIT headwinds show GDP in 2018 slowing down to 1.5%. This will be lagging the EUROZONE. However, the UK economy is not in the poor shape predicted by the “REMAINERS” during the referendum. The downside RISK just never materialized. It is holding up and performing regardless.\r\n\r\nThe big question in the UK from my perspective surrounds confidence. Should the UK economy continue to stabilize the UK economic outlook should get rosier as it realizes that there is life after BREXIT. This should in turn drive the BOE to move to normalize and over time talk about removing its QE (Quantitative Easing) support. All of this combined should boost the GBP.\r\n\r\nWill the BOE raise rates in 2018? My brain says no, but, it cannot be ruled out towards the end of 2018 should the headline inflation rate NOT fall as predicted and the gap between inflation and wages not get smaller.\r\n\r\nNevertheless, I do have concerns.\r\n\r\nWhilst I see the GBP strengthening in 2018. In March 2019 when the BREXIT deal is completed we enter a two-year transition. This is an uncertain period in my opinion. I envisage the political mud flying left and right as the reality of BREXIT hits home and the accusations will start flying as only politicians can do. The actual outcome WILL BE different from what everyone believed it would be. This is unavoidable.\r\n\r\nSo, my long GBP trade would not start until possibly Q2 2018 and reviewed prior to March 2019.\r\n\r\nThis currency pair does have greater RISK attached to it and it may not actually get off the line.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 16pt;\"><strong> THE PAIRS I HAVE SELECTED… SO FAR:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nI have my list of pairs at hand and I have preliminary charts drawn with my preferred first choice entry levels. Obviously, I have my second and third choice entry levels as well.\r\n\r\nThe targets are known and my stop loss levels will in the main be in line with Monthly ATR levels at the extreme but NOT in all cases.\r\n\r\n<u>CAD PAIRS</u>: - USD/CAD and CAD/JPY\r\n\r\n<u>AUD PAIRS</u>: - AUD/USD and AUD/NZD.\r\n\r\n<u>NZD PAIRS</u>: - NZD/USD.\r\n\r\n<u>GBP PAIRS</u>: -  GBP/USD, GBP/NZD, EUR/GBP and GBP/CHF.\r\n\r\nObviously, one can go mad adding more and more currency pair options, and, maybe as the year progresses I will see better opportunities lie elsewhere but for now my focus is on the above.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 16pt;\"><strong> TIMINGS and VOLUMES:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nBasically, I see this as a process commencing in January / February 2018. Whilst, for obvious reasons I cannot give exact timings, I do see this process gathering momentum early into 2018.\r\n\r\nBelow are my initial thoughts on when POSITION TRADES are likely to be more intensive with the currencies chosen.\r\n\r\nQ1: AUD and CAD\r\n\r\nQ2: GBP\r\n\r\nQ3: NZD\r\n\r\nQ4: N/A\r\n\r\nNOTE: - One must be flexible here with timing of the entries. Especially with the GBP, it’s not as much a question of being in trades but also its about when NOT to be in trades. The other currencies are not as “mental / volatile” with price movement as the cable and therefore some patience will be required waiting for trade set ups to trigger.\r\n\r\nIn 2017, I never really allowed POSITION TRADES to move forward, and being self-critical apart from the AUD/NZD, I allowed the shorter-term market influences to dictate. My goal next year will be based on less is more, with regards to allowing trades to move around inside the ATR limits.\r\n\r\nThis approach does appeal to part-time traders and those of you who do not have free access to check progress of trades on a regular basis.\r\n\r\nMoving forward, instead of POSITION TRADES counting for close to 50% of trades this will be reduced closer to 20% of the overall volume moving forward.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 16pt;\"><strong> FINAL THOUGHTS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nFinally, I am really looking forward to 2018. I have no major travel plans or conferences scheduled so at the time of writing it should be a full-on trading year. The usual suspects of RISK, ACCOUNT and HEAD MANAGEMENT will be vital and working within my TRADE PLAN one of my critical success factors.\r\n\r\nThe target is once again 10,000 pips and as the 2017 PREMIUM SERVICE closed yesterday, December 22nd, the clock is now ticking on a new trading year.\r\n\r\nAll that remains is to wish you and your families and loved ones a very Happy Christmas and to you have a great trading year in 2018.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: FREE NEWSLETTER\r\nBLOG REFERENCE NUMBER: #264\r\nDATE: 23rd December 2017\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','2017 REVIEW and POSITION TRADING 2018','','publish','open','closed','','2017-review-position-trading-2018','','','2017-12-23 13:37:35','2017-12-23 18:37:35','',0,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?p=10737',0,'post','',0),(10738,1,'2017-12-23 13:37:35','2017-12-23 18:37:35','<strong>\r\n<span style=\"font-size: 16pt;\">PREMIUM SERVICE REVIEW OF 2017:</span></strong>\r\n\r\nWithout doubt 2017 was not an easy year for me from a trading perspective. I had a house move from Quebec to Atlantic Canada plus immediately following the house move a trip to Australia and New Zealand in connection with my wife’s business, on the back of which we added a vacation.\r\n\r\nAt the end of July 2017, the idea of achieving my 10,000-pip annual target looked to be a tall order.\r\n\r\nPREMIUM SERVICE KEY RESULTS:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>2017 PIP TOTAL = 12,220 pips</li>\r\n 	<li>75% trades positive and 25% trades were loss making trades. This was in line with my objective.</li>\r\n 	<li>From single-lot trading, both MINI and STANDARD lot traders both saw excellent returns.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nFor more details on the 2017 PREMIUM SERVICE, please go to my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> landing page and check out the HISTORY tab.\r\n\r\nThere is also a very special promotion in place for new subscribers to the PREMIUM SERVICE in 2018 under the PROMOTIONS tab.\r\n\r\nPlease note, all new subscriptions paid for now will be given full access to the PREMIUM SERVICE however, the date of your subscription will not start until January 8th, 2018.\r\n\r\nThe rest of this blog was intended for PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers only, as it was based around intended changes to my longer-term trading via POSITION TRADES in 2018.\r\n\r\nI decided that it may be of interest to other traders who are considering joining the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\nPOSITION TRADES should account for about 20% of my overall trades next year. They are longer-term and may suit traders who cannot access their computers on a regular basis and prefer just to check on progress once or twice a day.\r\n\r\nCombined with the current PREMIUM SERVICE subscriber PROMOTION, this may be an option worth considering for 2018.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-size: 18pt;\"><strong>PREMIUM SERVICE\r\nPOSITION TRADING 2018:</strong></span></p>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 16pt;\"><strong>MY MACRO (FUNDAMENTAL) THOUGHTS FOR 2018:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nI am going to keep this brief and straightforward.\r\n\r\nThose of you who have been following me for sometime know that I am old school in the sense that I believe that the biggest impact on the direction of any currency is its Central Bank.\r\n\r\nIt’s really obvious, but sometimes it is lost in the grand scheme of things. My macro thoughts moving into 2018 are very much based on Central bank monetary policy.\r\n\r\nInitially, my thoughts were centered around Central Bank policy divergence, and whilst this is still a consideration, one should be mindful of the fact that there is a momentum amongst Central Bank governors to move to a more neutral / normalization route regarding monetary policy. With this shift, some of the forward guidance provided, in my opinion, can be treated with a pinch of salt, however, reading the statements in detail, which can be painful at times, gives the insight and direction intended, which in turn should give longer-term FX traders confidence.\r\n\r\nI am comforted by the fact the Central Banks are like the super oil-tankers that you see on the oceans of the world that require a turning circle of 12 miles to change direction and about 3 miles to come to a complete stop. Central Banks tend to be similar, directions are not choppy. Markets demand uncertainty and direction. They require a consistency to ensure price stabilities and investment confidence from business.\r\n\r\nWith the above in mind, looking into 2018, I want to focus POSITION TRADING into just 4 currencies: - GBP, CAD, AUD and NZD.\r\n\r\nI believe that the associated Central Banks will offer the best FX opportunities moving through 2018.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 16pt;\"><strong>REASONS FOR CHOOSING THESE CURRENCIES:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nI am keeping these as straightforward and as basic as possible. I see no need to get into too much “nitty gritty” as it only increases the complexities, which I want to avoid.\r\n\r\nWhen looking at these currencies, I have looked at the recent economic indicators like GDP, CPi, Confidence numbers etc. However, sometimes external geopolitical factors can influence policy just as much and so my reasons for selecting these currencies are a combination of factors.\r\n\r\nFundamentals are crucial in selection as one set of stats does NOT make a trend. I have looked at and viewed data over the previous 12 months and in addition, looked ahead using Central bank projections and guidance from press conferences and statement releases to give me the best overall picture possible.\r\n\r\n<u>BOC – CAD:</u>\r\n\r\nStephen Poloz, BOC Governor, really pissed me off this year without showing balls by sticking to his principles. Probably for all the right reasons he tried to temper CAD strength but in reality, with the US being the border neighbour and the FED hell bent on raising interest rates come what may, it was only a matter of time before he had to get a little more bullish.\r\n\r\nThe BOC will have to maintain the status quo vis-à-vis interest rates to the FED. It is NOT an unwritten rule but historically it just happens.\r\n\r\nTherefore, I can see 3 x interest rate hikes from the BOC in 2018, Q1, Q2 and Q4.\r\n\r\n<u>RBA – AUD:</u>\r\n\r\nI was in Sydney earlier this year and my wife and I had dinner with an ex. PREMIUM SERVICE subscriber and his girlfriend, who, by coincidence worked at the RBA. Whilst no secrets were given away it was obvious that as Glenn Stevens’s replacement Philip Lowe, RBA Governor was extremely highly thought of and very well respected.\r\n\r\nThis has stuck with me through 2017 and reading the RBA statements the theme is consistent and this has been reflected in the moves of the AUD currency.\r\n\r\nMoving forward in 2018 this is the Central Bank, I believe could be the pick. I see the RBA having to keep pace with other Central banks to normalize, whilst they may be a little reluctant to join the party. The AUD economy is growing, it has strength and maybe in Q1 but definitely in Q2 I can see a policy change and a series of interest rates being factored in.\r\n\r\n<u>RNBZ – NZD:</u>\r\n\r\nTo a strengthening Kiwi dollar Adrian Orr has been announced as Graeme Wheeler’s full-time replacement from March 2018, taking over from the temporary Grant Spencer as governor of the RBNZ.\r\n\r\nHe has a hell of job on his hands. A new Left Labour Government in place, with a whole host of ideas, and changes in the works with its coalition partner NZ first, a populist party.\r\n\r\nChanges in RBNZ responsibilities are targeted despite the poo-pooing of all changes by Grant Spencer of late. It was blatantly obvious that he was old school, nothing to change here approach we are just fine as we are thank you very much!\r\n\r\nIt has been stated because of the political uncertainty and the desire to keep stability in the markets that the RBNZ would be on hold for an extended period of time. I can see and understand this, however, at some point the RBNZ will be forced somewhat to react to the RBA to keep the currency balance intact.\r\n\r\nFor this reason, I can see the RBNZ moving higher in the latter part of 2017, maybe Q3 but definitely Q4.\r\n\r\n<u>BOE - GBP:</u>\r\n\r\nOf the four currencies selected, this is without any fear the one with the greatest RISKS attached to it. If we were playing “It’s a Knock-out”, this would be my joker.\r\n\r\nThe UK is moving through the BREXIT process. We now see Theresa May move to phase two in Q1 2018, after basically giving the EU what they wanted in phase one and agreeing to kick the can down the road on borders (IRELAND / NORTHERN IRELAND and SPAIN / GIBRALTAR).\r\n\r\nFrom a Forex perspective, the whole FX world is looking to capitalize on what is expected to be a strengthening move in cable back towards the pre-BREXIT vote levels. In principle, agree with this thought process, although, I do as you all know think that at any time the GBP currency is always moments away from a negative statement that could have a negative effect on the GBP.\r\n\r\nIn complete understanding of this fact, I still see the GBP longer-term a “BUY THE DIP” currency. As the BREXIT process moves forward, I see the positives more than out weighing the negatives, although it will be a bumpy road back in the GBP/USD towards the 1.4500 - 1.5000 levels, I do believe that is where we are eventually heading.\r\n\r\nTiming will be everything with this trade.\r\n\r\nThe recent GDP data from the UK shows GDP at 1.7% y/y, although moving forward BREXIT headwinds show GDP in 2018 slowing down to 1.5%. This will be lagging the EUROZONE. However, the UK economy is not in the poor shape predicted by the “REMAINERS” during the referendum. The downside RISK just never materialized. It is holding up and performing regardless.\r\n\r\nThe big question in the UK from my perspective surrounds confidence. Should the UK economy continue to stabilize the UK economic outlook should get rosier as it realizes that there is life after BREXIT. This should in turn drive the BOE to move to normalize and over time talk about removing its QE (Quantitative Easing) support. All of this combined should boost the GBP.\r\n\r\nWill the BOE raise rates in 2018? My brain says no, but, it cannot be ruled out towards the end of 2018 should the headline inflation rate NOT fall as predicted and the gap between inflation and wages not get smaller.\r\n\r\nNevertheless, I do have concerns.\r\n\r\nWhilst I see the GBP strengthening in 2018. In March 2019 when the BREXIT deal is completed we enter a two-year transition. This is an uncertain period in my opinion. I envisage the political mud flying left and right as the reality of BREXIT hits home and the accusations will start flying as only politicians can do. The actual outcome WILL BE different from what everyone believed it would be. This is unavoidable.\r\n\r\nSo, my long GBP trade would not start until possibly Q2 2018 and reviewed prior to March 2019.\r\n\r\nThis currency pair does have greater RISK attached to it and it may not actually get off the line.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 16pt;\"><strong> THE PAIRS I HAVE SELECTED… SO FAR:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nI have my list of pairs at hand and I have preliminary charts drawn with my preferred first choice entry levels. Obviously, I have my second and third choice entry levels as well.\r\n\r\nThe targets are known and my stop loss levels will in the main be in line with Monthly ATR levels at the extreme but NOT in all cases.\r\n\r\n<u>CAD PAIRS</u>: - USD/CAD and CAD/JPY\r\n\r\n<u>AUD PAIRS</u>: - AUD/USD and AUD/NZD.\r\n\r\n<u>NZD PAIRS</u>: - NZD/USD.\r\n\r\n<u>GBP PAIRS</u>: -  GBP/USD, GBP/NZD, EUR/GBP and GBP/CHF.\r\n\r\nObviously, one can go mad adding more and more currency pair options, and, maybe as the year progresses I will see better opportunities lie elsewhere but for now my focus is on the above.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 16pt;\"><strong> TIMINGS and VOLUMES:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nBasically, I see this as a process commencing in January / February 2018. Whilst, for obvious reasons I cannot give exact timings, I do see this process gathering momentum early into 2018.\r\n\r\nBelow are my initial thoughts on when POSITION TRADES are likely to be more intensive with the currencies chosen.\r\n\r\nQ1: AUD and CAD\r\n\r\nQ2: GBP\r\n\r\nQ3: NZD\r\n\r\nQ4: N/A\r\n\r\nNOTE: - One must be flexible here with timing of the entries. Especially with the GBP, it’s not as much a question of being in trades but also its about when NOT to be in trades. The other currencies are not as “mental / volatile” with price movement as the cable and therefore some patience will be required waiting for trade set ups to trigger.\r\n\r\nIn 2017, I never really allowed POSITION TRADES to move forward, and being self-critical apart from the AUD/NZD, I allowed the shorter-term market influences to dictate. My goal next year will be based on less is more, with regards to allowing trades to move around inside the ATR limits.\r\n\r\nThis approach does appeal to part-time traders and those of you who do not have free access to check progress of trades on a regular basis.\r\n\r\nMoving forward, instead of POSITION TRADES counting for close to 50% of trades this will be reduced closer to 20% of the overall volume moving forward.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 16pt;\"><strong> FINAL THOUGHTS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nFinally, I am really looking forward to 2018. I have no major travel plans or conferences scheduled so at the time of writing it should be a full-on trading year. The usual suspects of RISK, ACCOUNT and HEAD MANAGEMENT will be vital and working within my TRADE PLAN one of my critical success factors.\r\n\r\nThe target is once again 10,000 pips and as the 2017 PREMIUM SERVICE closed yesterday, December 22nd, the clock is now ticking on a new trading year.\r\n\r\nAll that remains is to wish you and your families and loved ones a very Happy Christmas and to you have a great trading year in 2018.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: FREE NEWSLETTER\r\nBLOG REFERENCE NUMBER: #264\r\nDATE: 23rd December 2017\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','2017 REVIEW and POSITION TRADING 2018','','inherit','closed','closed','','10737-revision-v1','','','2017-12-23 13:37:35','2017-12-23 18:37:35','',10737,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/10737-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(10440,1,'2017-11-26 16:49:49','2017-11-26 21:49:49','','CYBER MONDAY OFFER 2017','','inherit','open','closed','','cyber-monday-offer-2017','','','2017-11-26 16:50:12','2017-11-26 21:50:12','',4984,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/CYBER-MONDAY-OFFER-2017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(10431,1,'2017-11-18 06:21:43','2017-11-18 11:21:43','<strong>\r\n</strong>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nWelcome.\r\n\r\nThis week’s DRIVE THRU takes on a new format. I am not changing for changing sake, I am responding to comments. The main purpose of this blog is to formally communicate with my PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers, but it does have a dual purpose. The second purpose is to inform and hopefully attract serious FX traders to become new PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers. It is always a balance and for about 4 years now, I keep tweaking the content. I hope that you like this revision. Given my history in this regard it will NOT be the last.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nLast week had it all; boredom, excitement, annoyance, frustration, surprise plus profits and losses and several shots of Jack Daniels… that was just Tuesday. I think I read somewhere that it was the strongest / biggest single day rally in the USD for years.\r\n\r\nIt certainly shook the markets for those playing the EUR/USD (Head and Shoulders) / DXY (Inverted Head and Shoulders). Money flows at the moment are driving these huge moves. The NIKKEI had a 20% move higher in a couple of months. Fund managers are looking for value as we head into the year end, monies are moving to Europe away from Japan etc.… there is a lot going on and currencies are being used in huge volumes to facilitate a lot of these moves.\r\n\r\nOvernight last Thursday into Friday morning the PREMIUM SERVICE was blasted with over 750 pips of profit when my core short positions across the AUD and NZD drilled home pips across several trades.\r\n\r\nFor me last week was a two-day trading week… All that wasted time for the other days sitting in front of screens!!\r\n\r\nIt has been quite some time since I have written “RISK OFF” in my blog but we are sort of there as we are bouncing around in the US equity markets. It is a battle between the “BUY THE DIP” mentality and market bears. Is the most hated rally ever finally being sold? Not sure but a pullback of sorts, and its minimal in the grand scheme of things is happening.\r\n\r\nEnough of that…\r\n\r\nOver the past month or so I have been sampling my competition to the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\nThere are so many chart analysts out there, but that is all they do. They look backwards and tell what patterns were formed and why, but there is very little out there who look forward and trade, in fact I doubt very many of them have skin in the market.\r\n\r\nI have looked across the spectrum; costly to cheap and well-known to unknown.\r\nI followed big names who have tens of thousands of followers on twitter, as well as specific trade set up providers and analysts from brokers. In total about 10 names/ businesses, here is a sample of what I came across. It’s not totally inclusive as some were just not worth the print!\r\n\r\n<strong><u>TV ANAYLST WITH OWN FX SUPPORT BUSINESS (UK BASED)</u></strong>: Is a regular guest on BNN, CNBC and BLOOMBERG, huge on Twitter. In my opinion, he is a gambler. He puts trades up a minute or two before high beta news events. It\'s a 50-50 guess. You hear about the good ones on Twitter and the failures disappear. The service covers all markets, I am just Forex, so a lot of what I received was great for correlations but nothing revolutionary.  I made money but the cost was double what I charge. Lots of supporting information, not sure where its cut and pasted from. Response time to questions poor.\r\n\r\nIt was a high cost, I made money but the gambling trades are stupid in my opinion.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>TV ANAYLST WITH OWN FX SUPPORT BUSINESS (US BASED): </u></strong>Another, is so fast and impossible to follow on a webinar and the amount of assumptions made are incredible. This service provider is a regular on CNBC. All the trades lost money. Analysis is good but the implementation of trades a joke. It was all over the map for me, no discipline, no structure. The chat room was frankly dangerous, no management, inexperienced traders being exposed to all sorts of crap. Is it any wonder FX gets a bad name? I would close that down right now.\r\n\r\nThere are so many cost options, so much to take in, maybe something I did NOT buy worked but I doubt it. I am confused about the whole package options and I blame this service for my migraine during the week. Response time to questions excellent.\r\n\r\nCannot possibly trade LIVE trades. Very well-known must live off huge fee incomes from webinars, on-line books, algorithm sales (they don\'t work either) and TV appearance fees.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>BROKER ANALYST (UK BASED):</u></strong> This person from a large Broker, also on Business TV a fair bit, I respect as a chart analyst, but the LIVE trading is a fecking joke. He simply never trades. It’s all theory. No skin in the game.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>TRADES SERVICE PROVIDER (HONG KONG BASED):</u></strong><strong>  </strong>Four times more expensive than the PREMIUM SERVICE no supporting information for trades, poor response times and trades were all 10 or 15 pip scalps that would NOT cover the cost of the subscription unless you were trading 4/5 standard lots a time. Not my target audience and too high RISK for most people. I just about broke even. Not my cup of tea. Now they are SPAMMING me… Jesus, Mary and Joseph!!\r\n\r\n<strong><u>SUMMARY:\r\n\r\n</u></strong>I have faults, just ask my wife! Trading in the FX market I always have real skin in the market. I feel the trades. I trade without emotion (most times) because I manage RISK. I do not have hundreds of subscribers, no way near. I have a solid group of serious FX traders from around the globe and two syndicates through spokespeople that adds about 20 additional traders into the mix. I keep it simple and I try my best to provide a personal and prompt service. I, the PREMIUM SERVICE am looking for serious traders who want to trade, not have to trade, I hope that makes sense.\r\n\r\nTo do what I do, I can’t have more than 50 subscribers. There are still a few spaces left.\r\n\r\nI may chop ‘n change trades around to fit the market conditions, which can be difficult to follow with everyone being in different time zones, but that is trading. I trade to make $$$ not to lose $$$.\r\n\r\nI was up at 3.30AM on a couple of mornings last week playing with trades. That is the reality of trading in the FX market, its open from Sunday at 5PM EST and closes the following Friday at 5PM EST. I am NOT interested in “that trade was closed whilst I was asleep!” If you are a serious trader you have little sleep between Sunday and Friday each week.\r\n\r\nBack on track…\r\n\r\nAt the end of the day from my research, did I find anything I want to add to the PREMIUM SERVICE?\r\n\r\nThere are a couple of things I will introduce moving forward but overall, I feel good about the research I provide it is mostly brief and to the point. Those services that provide lots of commentary, I strongly suspect DO NOT TRADE. I struggle for hours as it is now and I consider myself damn good at time management.\r\n\r\nFinally,\r\n\r\nThere will be no blog next weekend, we have friends flying in from the UK. The opportunities to trade will be slim. Plus, zero time for completing research and finding the 10 hours or so required to complete the blog from start to finish will just not be there. So, it is a see you in two weeks after this week’s review.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:\r\n\r\n</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>LOOKING AHEAD THIS COMING WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\nTHIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/ECON-DATA-19112017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10401\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/ECON-DATA-19112017-1024x884.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"884\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>USD MAJORS – SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS with BIAS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/TCHART-19112017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-10402\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/TCHART-19112017.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1014\" height=\"898\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>USD – TRADING CHARTS: </u>\r\n\r\nMore often than not I will use DAILY CHARTS for my analysis.\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>EUR/USD:\r\n\r\nOverall recent data from the EUROZONE has been good. We have seen a pullback from the recent 1.1860 highs. RSi (Relative Strength Indicator) is moving higher and given the better data, the bulls are trying to regain control once again. I think that we need to see a break higher above 1.1880 (BLACK LINE) for the bulls to be back in control.\r\n\r\nSupport is good circa. 1.1660 and on the chart below (PURPLE LINE) and more recently at 1.1750 (BURGUNDY LINE).\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/EURUSD-D-19112017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10414\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/EURUSD-D-19112017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\nThe recent weakening USD has pulled cable higher. I am however always thinking that this pair is one news item away from a 100-pip fall and it could happen at any time.\r\n\r\nThe chart below shows a bullish set of candles, which completely goes against my FUNDAMENTAL views regarding this pair. Price was rejected very strongly at 1.3260 last Friday. That rejection stopped me out of GBP/NZD and GBP/AUD longs at the time… bugger.\r\n\r\nI think that we range trade with this pair between the two Fibonacci levels of 23.6% at 1.3170 and 38% at 1.3260.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/GBPUSD-D-19112017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10415\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/GBPUSD-D-19112017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\nThis pair is under pressure as you can clearly see from the chart below. We were held up at 61.8% Fibonacci level last Friday. The spike from this low will allow traders such as me through the PREMIUM SERVICE to re-load short trades this week. The bigger the spike the better… bring it on.\r\n\r\nWe are getting close to 30 level on the RSi therefore, a couple of re-set trading sessions would suit me fine!!\r\n\r\nThere are several potential trading patterns one can use on the pair, for now I am running with a channel set up as this pair seems to like channels.\r\n\r\nAs long as the RBA remains neutral I cannot see this pair moving higher in the near term.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/AUDUSD-D-19112017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10413\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/AUDUSD-D-19112017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\nWe are getting closer to a 30 reading on the RSi. We can of course drop below but I am hoping for a spike to allow me to re-load PREMIUM SERVICE short trades.\r\n\r\nThe political uncertainty in New Zealand is driving this pair lower and for the foreseeable future I see no change in this connection.\r\n\r\nPREMIUM SERVICE subscribers know what my target is to the downside with this pair, the candlestick pattern does look very bearish to me.\r\n\r\nBulls if there are any, will not be back in control of this pair unless we break back above 0.7000, which, seems an awfully long way away at the moment when one looks at current pricing.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/NZDUSD-D-19112017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10416\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/NZDUSD-D-19112017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\nBugger…\r\n\r\nI really want this pair above 1.2900 to short. After last Friday’s in line inflation print, the pair spiked to the 61.8% Fibonacci level and then pulled back.\r\n\r\nThe upward sloping channel is basically still intact on the chart below, so I still have some hope for now. Who am I kidding? This pair is bound to about turn and break through the trend line support and leave me behind!!\r\n\r\nWe have Retail Sales data this week. Does this mean that I may have to wait another week for my short entry?\r\n\r\nBelow 1.2725 would make me have to re-think my PLAN.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/USDCAD-D-19112017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10417\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/USDCAD-D-19112017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\nAm I dreaming with the pennant / flag patterns on the cart below? It is rather an awkward shape. The measured moves play to 1.0460 (BURGUNDY) and 1.0175 (BLACK).\r\n\r\nI am struggling to know what to do with this pair. The PREMIUM SERVICE has a small long trade, which is out of the money at the moment. I am not sure what to do with this pair, but I do know that longer-term I want to be long.\r\n\r\nI am working on the fact we are in a range of 0.9840 to a.0040.\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/USDCHF-D-19112017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10418\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/USDCHF-D-19112017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\nBecause I am stupid I let 60 pips of profit disappear with this pair last Friday… argh!!\r\n\r\nRISK sentiment is ruling this pair at the moment as the NIKKEI sells off and uncertainty persists in Washington. Add into the mix treasury yields. Now ask me why did I give up my short so cheaply? Because I am stupid!!\r\n\r\nThis pair has 108.00 written all over it in my opinion. The 200 DAY SMA comes in around 111.80, which was original take profit level, but a break below here would NOT surprise me and a test of 110.00, the 61.8% Fibonacci level would seem reasonable to me for the shorter term.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/USDJPY-D-19112017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10419\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/USDJPY-D-19112017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:</u>\r\n\r\nMost of the economic data releases this week are related to speeches by Central Bank leaders. Therefore, it is reactionary news, which of late I have not enjoyed much as it has been lacking conviction or momentum. The recent exceptions being the BOE Super Thursday and Draghi’s ECB Press Conference. There was certainly direction following these, but the rest… not my cup of tea.\r\n\r\nOf what remains, the following short list interests me: -\r\n\r\n<strong><u>AUD:</u></strong><u> MONETARY POLICY MEETING MINUTES</u>.\r\n\r\nThese minutes surely to God cannot be as much of a snooze fest as the original statement release. It passed basically without a flicker. Philip Lowe also speaks about 12 hours after the minutes are published.\r\n\r\nThe RBA are neutral. It will be interesting to see if any timescales on policy were discussed plus any inklings vis-a-vis housing prices in the Australian market.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>\r\nUSD:</u></strong><u> FOMC MEETING MINUTES.</u>\r\n\r\nIt’s not about this year, 2017 that has me including this item in this section, it is about future discussions into 2018. At the end of the day with a new FED chair moving in early next year, I am not expecting future policies to be changed or placed on hold. Central Banks are well oiled dinosaurs that move so slowly and like massive oil tankers when a change of policy is made in the sense that it takes oil tankers 5/6 miles to turnabout.\r\n\r\nRate hikes into 2018 is what will catch the eye in this release.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>CAD:</u></strong><u> CORE RETAIL SALES.</u>\r\n\r\nI am looking to short the USD/CAD and add to my CORE SHORT POSITION. Therefore, I want the poor data to continue to give me the best entry level possible. The closer to 1.3000 the better…. I am waiting.\r\n\r\nBeing realistic however, last month’s reading was a dismal negative 0.7%. I would be astonished if a negative print was repeated in the run up months to Christmas.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>HOW TO PLAY THE MARKET THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\nPersonally, I believe that we are in a consolidation period once again. Last week the USD was whacked and the commodity currencies were taken to the woodshed.\r\n\r\nThe majors and the cross rates in my opinion need to re-set. There were some massive moves over the past week. EUR/USD +800 pips, GBP/NZD about +600 pips or so and GBP/AUD about +500 pips.\r\n\r\nThe Monthly ATR (Average True Range) GBP/AUD is just under 1,000 pips so when you consider that 500 pips was the range last week, we need to consolidate the moves. Not that we have to consolidate with the cross-rate pairs, they are very volatile but you have to be aware of these facts into this week.\r\n\r\nWe are light on true economic data this week and therefore we will be at the will of the news wires… oh shit I can hear you saying.\r\n\r\nYes regretfully, it will be the Senate and the numbers of GOP senate members that will either vote yes or no on the TRUMP TAX REFUND. From what I can see it’s no longer tax reform, that is far too radical for dysfunctional politicians to stomach.\r\n\r\nBREXIT will feature as progress really needs to be established prior to the end of the year. We are soon into the season of lavish Christmas Parties in Brussels. The expense accounts will be out in full and the hospitality industry will move up from yellow to red alert as the cha ching of cash and need for extra credit card swipe machines intensifies.\r\n\r\nIf David Davis (UK Chief negotiator) doesn’t get some UK BREXIT positives on paper pre-Christmas, I can see a Tory party revolt and a new leader in place for early 2018. I write this and I am fully aware that no one with any grey matter in their heads would want the poison chalice of dealing with BREXIT, unless you do not mind shoving two fingers in the air to the EU and taking the no deal option…. enter Boris Johnson.\r\n\r\nI think therefore that trading USD majors especially the EUR/USD and USD/JPY will be very reactionary to US data and BREXIT will keep anything GBP tied up.\r\n\r\nTherefore, the commodity currencies should offer us option. The AUD and NZD currencies in particular are weak and trading very heavily. Whilst I believe we have to allow for resetting pullbacks to enter these currencies remain the best option for trading pairs with liquidity.\r\n\r\nThe NZD is especially under pressure politically and moves lower should continue as long as political uncertainties continue. The AUD is being pushed lower by the RBA. Hats off to Philip Lowe this is being done professionally and the move is to a large extent given what usually happens being conducted under the radar.\r\n\r\nI have already said we should wait for the commodity cross rates to reset so that leaves the smaller currencies and exotic pairs.\r\n\r\nI closed a number of trades last Friday pre-weekend on the failure of the AUD and NZD currencies. I still think that pairs like the AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY, AUD/NZD, NZD/CAD etc. are still viable until the market reset is completed.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is my own subscriber based Forex support service that offers subscribers my suggested trade set-ups and market commentaries.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting the HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE tab.\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT 2017 PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:\r\n\r\n</u> PIPS ADDED LAST WEEK:           = +1,276 pips\r\n\r\nPIPS MONTH TO DATE:                = +1,445 pips\r\n\r\nYEAR TO DATE:                              = +11,847 pips\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs on my website  <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\nAlternatively, if you prefer to watch a video recording about the PREMIUM SERVICE, click the link below. You will be directed to a 40-minute webinar presentation entitled “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE”.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS ONLY:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4:1. TRADING REVIEW:\r\n</u><u>\r\n</u><u>4:2. SENTIMENT CHART,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4:3. TRADING PLANS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4:3.1. TRADING PLAN OVERVIEW THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4:3.2.  EXISTING CORE TRADES (PLANS &amp; STRATEGIES):</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4:4. CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4:5. FX BROKER NEWS with their MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> INTO THE CLOSE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you have read in this blog and would like the chance to win a FREE SUBSCRIPTION valued at CAD$150.00, all you need to do is subscribe to my FREE NEWSLETTER (this blog), by adding your email address on my welcome page just below my cube logo at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\nPREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTIONS:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you’ve read in this blog and should you want to go a stage further and subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE, this can be done on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the Tab SUBSCRIBE HERE.\r\n\r\nSubscribing to the PREMIUM SERVICE is not just about receiving a larger “DRIVE THRU” blog packed with more trading supporting information, my thoughts and ideas. There is much more to a subscription than those things. Check it all out under the tab HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nAlternatively, if you prefer to watch a video recording about the PREMIUM SERVICE, click the link below. You will be directed to a 40-minute webinar presentation entitled “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE”.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\nCLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\r\n</a>\r\nBLOG VERSION: #FREE NEWSLETTER\r\n19th November 2017\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','KIWI WILL REMAIN UNDER PRESSURE','','inherit','closed','closed','','10429-revision-v1','','','2017-11-18 06:21:43','2017-11-18 11:21:43','',10429,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/10429-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(10432,1,'2017-11-18 06:23:10','2017-11-18 11:23:10','<strong>\r\n</strong>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nWelcome.\r\n\r\nThis week’s DRIVE THRU takes on a new format. I am not changing for changing sake, I am responding to comments. The main purpose of this blog is to formally communicate with my PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers, but it does have a dual purpose. The second purpose is to inform and hopefully attract serious FX traders to become new PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers. It is always a balance and for about 4 years now, I keep tweaking the content. I hope that you like this revision. Given my history in this regard it will NOT be the last.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nLast week had it all; boredom, excitement, annoyance, frustration, surprise plus profits and losses and several shots of Jack Daniels… that was just Tuesday. I think I read somewhere that it was the strongest / biggest single day rally in the USD for years.\r\n\r\nIt certainly shook the markets for those playing the EUR/USD (Head and Shoulders) / DXY (Inverted Head and Shoulders). Money flows at the moment are driving these huge moves. The NIKKEI had a 20% move higher in a couple of months. Fund managers are looking for value as we head into the year end, monies are moving to Europe away from Japan etc.… there is a lot going on and currencies are being used in huge volumes to facilitate a lot of these moves.\r\n\r\nOvernight last Thursday into Friday morning the PREMIUM SERVICE was blasted with over 750 pips of profit when my core short positions across the AUD and NZD drilled home pips across several trades.\r\n\r\nFor me last week was a two-day trading week… All that wasted time for the other days sitting in front of screens!!\r\n\r\nIt has been quite some time since I have written “RISK OFF” in my blog but we are sort of there as we are bouncing around in the US equity markets. It is a battle between the “BUY THE DIP” mentality and market bears. Is the most hated rally ever finally being sold? Not sure but a pullback of sorts, and its minimal in the grand scheme of things is happening.\r\n\r\nEnough of that…\r\n\r\nOver the past month or so I have been sampling my competition to the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\nThere are so many chart analysts out there, but that is all they do. They look backwards and tell what patterns were formed and why, but there is very little out there who look forward and trade, in fact I doubt very many of them have skin in the market.\r\n\r\nI have looked across the spectrum; costly to cheap and well-known to unknown.\r\nI followed big names who have tens of thousands of followers on twitter, as well as specific trade set up providers and analysts from brokers. In total about 10 names/ businesses, here is a sample of what I came across. It’s not totally inclusive as some were just not worth the print!\r\n\r\n<strong><u>TV ANAYLST WITH OWN FX SUPPORT BUSINESS (UK BASED)</u></strong>: Is a regular guest on BNN, CNBC and BLOOMBERG, huge on Twitter. In my opinion, he is a gambler. He puts trades up a minute or two before high beta news events. It\'s a 50-50 guess. You hear about the good ones on Twitter and the failures disappear. The service covers all markets, I am just Forex, so a lot of what I received was great for correlations but nothing revolutionary.  I made money but the cost was double what I charge. Lots of supporting information, not sure where its cut and pasted from. Response time to questions poor.\r\n\r\nIt was a high cost, I made money but the gambling trades are stupid in my opinion.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>TV ANAYLST WITH OWN FX SUPPORT BUSINESS (US BASED): </u></strong>Another, is so fast and impossible to follow on a webinar and the amount of assumptions made are incredible. This service provider is a regular on CNBC. All the trades lost money. Analysis is good but the implementation of trades a joke. It was all over the map for me, no discipline, no structure. The chat room was frankly dangerous, no management, inexperienced traders being exposed to all sorts of crap. Is it any wonder FX gets a bad name? I would close that down right now.\r\n\r\nThere are so many cost options, so much to take in, maybe something I did NOT buy worked but I doubt it. I am confused about the whole package options and I blame this service for my migraine during the week. Response time to questions excellent.\r\n\r\nCannot possibly trade LIVE trades. Very well-known must live off huge fee incomes from webinars, on-line books, algorithm sales (they don\'t work either) and TV appearance fees.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>BROKER ANALYST (UK BASED):</u></strong> This person from a large Broker, also on Business TV a fair bit, I respect as a chart analyst, but the LIVE trading is a fecking joke. He simply never trades. It’s all theory. No skin in the game.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>TRADES SERVICE PROVIDER (HONG KONG BASED):</u></strong><strong>  </strong>Four times more expensive than the PREMIUM SERVICE no supporting information for trades, poor response times and trades were all 10 or 15 pip scalps that would NOT cover the cost of the subscription unless you were trading 4/5 standard lots a time. Not my target audience and too high RISK for most people. I just about broke even. Not my cup of tea. Now they are SPAMMING me… Jesus, Mary and Joseph!!\r\n\r\n<strong><u>SUMMARY:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nI have faults, just ask my wife! Trading in the FX market I always have real skin in the market. I feel the trades. I trade without emotion (most times) because I manage RISK. I do not have hundreds of subscribers, no way near. I have a solid group of serious FX traders from around the globe and two syndicates through spokespeople that adds about 20 additional traders into the mix. I keep it simple and I try my best to provide a personal and prompt service. I, the PREMIUM SERVICE am looking for serious traders who want to trade, not have to trade, I hope that makes sense.\r\n\r\nTo do what I do, I can’t have more than 50 subscribers. There are still a few spaces left.\r\n\r\nI may chop ‘n change trades around to fit the market conditions, which can be difficult to follow with everyone being in different time zones, but that is trading. I trade to make $$$ not to lose $$$.\r\n\r\nI was up at 3.30AM on a couple of mornings last week playing with trades. That is the reality of trading in the FX market, its open from Sunday at 5PM EST and closes the following Friday at 5PM EST. I am NOT interested in “that trade was closed whilst I was asleep!” If you are a serious trader you have little sleep between Sunday and Friday each week.\r\n\r\nBack on track…\r\n\r\nAt the end of the day from my research, did I find anything I want to add to the PREMIUM SERVICE?\r\n\r\nThere are a couple of things I will introduce moving forward but overall, I feel good about the research I provide it is mostly brief and to the point. Those services that provide lots of commentary, I strongly suspect DO NOT TRADE. I struggle for hours as it is now and I consider myself damn good at time management.\r\n\r\nFinally,\r\n\r\nThere will be no blog next weekend, we have friends flying in from the UK. The opportunities to trade will be slim. Plus, zero time for completing research and finding the 10 hours or so required to complete the blog from start to finish will just not be there. So, it is a see you in two weeks after this week’s review.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong></strong><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong>&nbsp;</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>LOOKING AHEAD THIS COMING WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\nTHIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/ECON-DATA-19112017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10401\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/ECON-DATA-19112017-1024x884.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"884\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>USD MAJORS – SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS with BIAS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/TCHART-19112017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-10402\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/TCHART-19112017.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1014\" height=\"898\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>USD – TRADING CHARTS: </u>\r\n\r\nMore often than not I will use DAILY CHARTS for my analysis.\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>EUR/USD:\r\n\r\nOverall recent data from the EUROZONE has been good. We have seen a pullback from the recent 1.1860 highs. RSi (Relative Strength Indicator) is moving higher and given the better data, the bulls are trying to regain control once again. I think that we need to see a break higher above 1.1880 (BLACK LINE) for the bulls to be back in control.\r\n\r\nSupport is good circa. 1.1660 and on the chart below (PURPLE LINE) and more recently at 1.1750 (BURGUNDY LINE).\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/EURUSD-D-19112017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10414\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/EURUSD-D-19112017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\nThe recent weakening USD has pulled cable higher. I am however always thinking that this pair is one news item away from a 100-pip fall and it could happen at any time.\r\n\r\nThe chart below shows a bullish set of candles, which completely goes against my FUNDAMENTAL views regarding this pair. Price was rejected very strongly at 1.3260 last Friday. That rejection stopped me out of GBP/NZD and GBP/AUD longs at the time… bugger.\r\n\r\nI think that we range trade with this pair between the two Fibonacci levels of 23.6% at 1.3170 and 38% at 1.3260.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/GBPUSD-D-19112017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10415\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/GBPUSD-D-19112017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\nThis pair is under pressure as you can clearly see from the chart below. We were held up at 61.8% Fibonacci level last Friday. The spike from this low will allow traders such as me through the PREMIUM SERVICE to re-load short trades this week. The bigger the spike the better… bring it on.\r\n\r\nWe are getting close to 30 level on the RSi therefore, a couple of re-set trading sessions would suit me fine!!\r\n\r\nThere are several potential trading patterns one can use on the pair, for now I am running with a channel set up as this pair seems to like channels.\r\n\r\nAs long as the RBA remains neutral I cannot see this pair moving higher in the near term.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/AUDUSD-D-19112017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10413\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/AUDUSD-D-19112017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\nWe are getting closer to a 30 reading on the RSi. We can of course drop below but I am hoping for a spike to allow me to re-load PREMIUM SERVICE short trades.\r\n\r\nThe political uncertainty in New Zealand is driving this pair lower and for the foreseeable future I see no change in this connection.\r\n\r\nPREMIUM SERVICE subscribers know what my target is to the downside with this pair, the candlestick pattern does look very bearish to me.\r\n\r\nBulls if there are any, will not be back in control of this pair unless we break back above 0.7000, which, seems an awfully long way away at the moment when one looks at current pricing.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/NZDUSD-D-19112017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10416\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/NZDUSD-D-19112017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\nBugger…\r\n\r\nI really want this pair above 1.2900 to short. After last Friday’s in line inflation print, the pair spiked to the 61.8% Fibonacci level and then pulled back.\r\n\r\nThe upward sloping channel is basically still intact on the chart below, so I still have some hope for now. Who am I kidding? This pair is bound to about turn and break through the trend line support and leave me behind!!\r\n\r\nWe have Retail Sales data this week. Does this mean that I may have to wait another week for my short entry?\r\n\r\nBelow 1.2725 would make me have to re-think my PLAN.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/USDCAD-D-19112017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10417\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/USDCAD-D-19112017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\nAm I dreaming with the pennant / flag patterns on the cart below? It is rather an awkward shape. The measured moves play to 1.0460 (BURGUNDY) and 1.0175 (BLACK).\r\n\r\nI am struggling to know what to do with this pair. The PREMIUM SERVICE has a small long trade, which is out of the money at the moment. I am not sure what to do with this pair, but I do know that longer-term I want to be long.\r\n\r\nI am working on the fact we are in a range of 0.9840 to a.0040.\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/USDCHF-D-19112017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10418\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/USDCHF-D-19112017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\nBecause I am stupid I let 60 pips of profit disappear with this pair last Friday… argh!!\r\n\r\nRISK sentiment is ruling this pair at the moment as the NIKKEI sells off and uncertainty persists in Washington. Add into the mix treasury yields. Now ask me why did I give up my short so cheaply? Because I am stupid!!\r\n\r\nThis pair has 108.00 written all over it in my opinion. The 200 DAY SMA comes in around 111.80, which was original take profit level, but a break below here would NOT surprise me and a test of 110.00, the 61.8% Fibonacci level would seem reasonable to me for the shorter term.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/USDJPY-D-19112017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10419\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/USDJPY-D-19112017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:</u>\r\n\r\nMost of the economic data releases this week are related to speeches by Central Bank leaders. Therefore, it is reactionary news, which of late I have not enjoyed much as it has been lacking conviction or momentum. The recent exceptions being the BOE Super Thursday and Draghi’s ECB Press Conference. There was certainly direction following these, but the rest… not my cup of tea.\r\n\r\nOf what remains, the following short list interests me: -\r\n\r\n<strong><u>AUD:</u></strong><u> MONETARY POLICY MEETING MINUTES</u>.\r\n\r\nThese minutes surely to God cannot be as much of a snooze fest as the original statement release. It passed basically without a flicker. Philip Lowe also speaks about 12 hours after the minutes are published.\r\n\r\nThe RBA are neutral. It will be interesting to see if any timescales on policy were discussed plus any inklings vis-a-vis housing prices in the Australian market.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>\r\nUSD:</u></strong><u> FOMC MEETING MINUTES.</u>\r\n\r\nIt’s not about this year, 2017 that has me including this item in this section, it is about future discussions into 2018. At the end of the day with a new FED chair moving in early next year, I am not expecting future policies to be changed or placed on hold. Central Banks are well oiled dinosaurs that move so slowly and like massive oil tankers when a change of policy is made in the sense that it takes oil tankers 5/6 miles to turnabout.\r\n\r\nRate hikes into 2018 is what will catch the eye in this release.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>CAD:</u></strong><u> CORE RETAIL SALES.</u>\r\n\r\nI am looking to short the USD/CAD and add to my CORE SHORT POSITION. Therefore, I want the poor data to continue to give me the best entry level possible. The closer to 1.3000 the better…. I am waiting.\r\n\r\nBeing realistic however, last month’s reading was a dismal negative 0.7%. I would be astonished if a negative print was repeated in the run up months to Christmas.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>HOW TO PLAY THE MARKET THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\nPersonally, I believe that we are in a consolidation period once again. Last week the USD was whacked and the commodity currencies were taken to the woodshed.\r\n\r\nThe majors and the cross rates in my opinion need to re-set. There were some massive moves over the past week. EUR/USD +800 pips, GBP/NZD about +600 pips or so and GBP/AUD about +500 pips.\r\n\r\nThe Monthly ATR (Average True Range) GBP/AUD is just under 1,000 pips so when you consider that 500 pips was the range last week, we need to consolidate the moves. Not that we have to consolidate with the cross-rate pairs, they are very volatile but you have to be aware of these facts into this week.\r\n\r\nWe are light on true economic data this week and therefore we will be at the will of the news wires… oh shit I can hear you saying.\r\n\r\nYes regretfully, it will be the Senate and the numbers of GOP senate members that will either vote yes or no on the TRUMP TAX REFUND. From what I can see it’s no longer tax reform, that is far too radical for dysfunctional politicians to stomach.\r\n\r\nBREXIT will feature as progress really needs to be established prior to the end of the year. We are soon into the season of lavish Christmas Parties in Brussels. The expense accounts will be out in full and the hospitality industry will move up from yellow to red alert as the cha ching of cash and need for extra credit card swipe machines intensifies.\r\n\r\nIf David Davis (UK Chief negotiator) doesn’t get some UK BREXIT positives on paper pre-Christmas, I can see a Tory party revolt and a new leader in place for early 2018. I write this and I am fully aware that no one with any grey matter in their heads would want the poison chalice of dealing with BREXIT, unless you do not mind shoving two fingers in the air to the EU and taking the no deal option…. enter Boris Johnson.\r\n\r\nI think therefore that trading USD majors especially the EUR/USD and USD/JPY will be very reactionary to US data and BREXIT will keep anything GBP tied up.\r\n\r\nTherefore, the commodity currencies should offer us option. The AUD and NZD currencies in particular are weak and trading very heavily. Whilst I believe we have to allow for resetting pullbacks to enter these currencies remain the best option for trading pairs with liquidity.\r\n\r\nThe NZD is especially under pressure politically and moves lower should continue as long as political uncertainties continue. The AUD is being pushed lower by the RBA. Hats off to Philip Lowe this is being done professionally and the move is to a large extent given what usually happens being conducted under the radar.\r\n\r\nI have already said we should wait for the commodity cross rates to reset so that leaves the smaller currencies and exotic pairs.\r\n\r\nI closed a number of trades last Friday pre-weekend on the failure of the AUD and NZD currencies. I still think that pairs like the AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY, AUD/NZD, NZD/CAD etc. are still viable until the market reset is completed.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is my own subscriber based Forex support service that offers subscribers my suggested trade set-ups and market commentaries.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting the HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE tab.\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT 2017 PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\n\r\nPIPS ADDED LAST WEEK:           = +1,276 pips\r\n\r\nPIPS MONTH TO DATE:                = +1,445 pips\r\n\r\nYEAR TO DATE:                              = +11,847 pips\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs on my website  <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\nAlternatively, if you prefer to watch a video recording about the PREMIUM SERVICE, click the link below. You will be directed to a 40-minute webinar presentation entitled “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE”.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS ONLY:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4:1. TRADING REVIEW:\r\n</u><u>\r\n</u><u>4:2. SENTIMENT CHART,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4:3. TRADING PLANS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4:3.1. TRADING PLAN OVERVIEW THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4:3.2.  EXISTING CORE TRADES (PLANS &amp; STRATEGIES):</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4:4. CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4:5. FX BROKER NEWS with their MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> INTO THE CLOSE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you have read in this blog and would like the chance to win a FREE SUBSCRIPTION valued at CAD$150.00, all you need to do is subscribe to my FREE NEWSLETTER (this blog), by adding your email address on my welcome page just below my cube logo at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\nPREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTIONS:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you’ve read in this blog and should you want to go a stage further and subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE, this can be done on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the Tab SUBSCRIBE HERE.\r\n\r\nSubscribing to the PREMIUM SERVICE is not just about receiving a larger “DRIVE THRU” blog packed with more trading supporting information, my thoughts and ideas. There is much more to a subscription than those things. Check it all out under the tab HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nAlternatively, if you prefer to watch a video recording about the PREMIUM SERVICE, click the link below. You will be directed to a 40-minute webinar presentation entitled “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE”.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\nCLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\r\n</a>\r\nBLOG VERSION: #FREE NEWSLETTER\r\n19th November 2017\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','KIWI WILL REMAIN UNDER PRESSURE','','inherit','closed','closed','','10429-revision-v1','','','2017-11-18 06:23:10','2017-11-18 11:23:10','',10429,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/10429-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(10434,1,'2017-11-23 10:59:20','2017-11-23 15:59:20','[s2If current_user_is(administrator)]\r\nHello Site Administrator you can access all content :)\r\n[/s2If]\r\n[s2If current_user_is(s2member_level4)]\r\n\r\n<section class=\"clearfix\">\r\n<div class=\"one-fourth first membership\">\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/premium-service-annual-subscription-renewal/\"><img class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-7748\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/Annual-Subscription-renewal.jpg\" alt=\"Premium Service Annual Subscription-renewal\" width=\"400\" /></a>\r\n<h3>Premium Service Annual Renewal (PLATINUM SUBSCRIBERS)</h3>\r\n<h2 class=\"price\">CAD $1000.00</h2>\r\n<a class=\"button\" href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/premium-service-annual-subscription-renewal/\" type=\"button\"> Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</section>[/s2If]\r\n\r\n[s2If current_user_is(s2member_level2)]\r\nPlease renew your Premium Service Subscription after logging out\r\n[/s2If]\r\n[s2If !is_user_logged_in()]\r\n\r\n<section class=\"clearfix\">\r\n<div class=\"one-third first membership\">\r\n\r\n<a href=\"./monthly-rollover-subscrption/\"><img class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-9897\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MonthlyRolloverSubscription.jpg\" alt=\"Monthly Rollover Subscription\" width=\"400\" /></a>\r\n<h3>MONTHLY ROLLOVER SUBSCRPTION</h3>\r\n<h2 class=\"price\">CAD $10.00 for the first 10 days</h2>\r\n<h2 class=\"price\">CAD $150.00 per month</h2>\r\n<a class=\"button\" href=\"./monthly-rollover-subscrption/\" type=\"button\"> Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"one-third membership\">\r\n\r\n<a href=\"./premium-service-20-weeks-subscription\"><img class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-7746\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/6-Months-Subscriptions.jpg\" alt=\"Premium Service 6-Months-Subscriptions\" width=\"400\" /></a>\r\n<h3>6 Months Subscription</h3>\r\n<h2 class=\"price\">CAD $800.00</h2>\r\n<a class=\"button\" href=\"./premium-service-20-weeks-subscription\" type=\"button\"> Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"one-third membership\">\r\n\r\n<a href=\"./premium-service-40-weeks-subscription\"><img class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-7747\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/Annual-Subscription.jpg\" alt=\"Premium Service Annual-Subscription\" width=\"750\" height=\"750\" /></a>\r\n<h3>Annual Subscription</h3>\r\n<h2 class=\"price\">CAD $1250.00</h2>\r\n<a class=\"button\" href=\"./premium-service-40-weeks-subscription\" type=\"button\"> Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</section>[/s2If]','Subscription Options','','inherit','closed','closed','','7749-revision-v1','','','2017-11-23 10:59:20','2017-11-23 15:59:20','',7749,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/7749-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(10489,1,'2017-12-02 13:00:05','2017-12-02 18:00:05','&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>THE FIRST FEW SHOTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nWelcome.\r\n\r\nWhenever I type December I am already thinking about Christmas, New Year and not being too anal but next year’s trading plans.\r\n\r\nWith regards to my FX trading next year and my plans with the PREMIUM SERVICE, I will announce them on a “drip feed” basis in the “DRIVE THRU” blogs between now and the final one of 2017 due out on 17th December.\r\n\r\nSo, with my own version of the countdown just two more “DRIVE THRU’s” until Christmas after this one!!\r\n\r\nI have had feedback to the recent changes with the DRIVE THRU blog format. I would like to thank those who commented about the changes, there were some positives and some negatives to the new structure.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Some miss “THE SOAPBOX” - some don\'t because it’s NOT directly currency related.</li>\r\n 	<li>Some want more charts. These are reserved for PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers throughout the trading week, sorry.</li>\r\n 	<li>Some want both - more charts and more SOAPBOX!!</li>\r\n 	<li>How to trade the week favourably received</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThe blog takes me about 6-8 hours in total to write, compile and post. My wife, spell checks, grammar checks and signs off that I am NOT being too extreme. Then it has to be broken into the different formats for the various social media releases, update and post the WordPress versions and post the manual versions onto various Social Media formats. My goal is to reduce the time spent on production but have it just as focused but at the same time away from the usual FX reviews. I am a strong believer in differentiation.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nPlease keep the feedback coming I love it and if you picked the DRIVE THRU blog up via TWITTER and you like my style and/or approach please feel free to re-tweet it!\r\n\r\nRemember you can always subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE to get more of my approach on a daily basis and at the same time get some help on making pips. My target for 2018 is 10,000 net pips…. I dare you!!\r\n\r\nNext…\r\n\r\nI enter December with 19 x LIVE TRADES and 14 x LIMIT ORDERS in position raring to go. Normally I would say, as we approach the end of the year it is time to slowly pullback and reduce RISK into the year end…. yeah right!\r\n\r\nAs soon as I plan something like this, opportunities come leaping out at me. It’s all about life choices and the FUNDAMENTALS, so for PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers please note it is very highly likely circa. 99.9% that there will be trading through the Christmas holidays, I just cannot see how it will not happen at this precise moment in time. So; get prepared for, paper hats on, turkey drumstick in hand and Jack Daniels by the side of the keyboard trading coming to a screen near you!\r\n\r\nEnough of that…\r\n\r\nMy sampling of my competition continues. Here is the best from this week’s experiences.\r\n\r\nHow to start this is difficult. I was trying to keep an open mind but pick me up off the floor!!\r\n\r\nI do despair sometimes. I know that I am NOT perfect and sometimes I can be off the wall son occasion with trades, but FFS, I have heard it all now.\r\n\r\nPlanets in alignment to move markets.\r\n\r\nIt’s not a question of Venus and Saturn, there has to be joke in here about Uranus.\r\n\r\nHMOG, you may as well place biscuits over potential trade set ups on paper, place them on the floor and let my Labrador boy, Ozzy eat them. The trade under the biscuit he picks first is the set up to trade!\r\n\r\nTalk about bollocks.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nTHE PREMIUM SERVICE had another great month in November, and it is now only 272 pips behind last year’s record total at this stage of the year.\r\n\r\nNOVEMBER 2017 net TOTAL: 2,381 net pips\r\n2017 YEAR TO DATE: 12,783 net pips\r\n\r\nI do have a few trades hanging around with losses that I have carried forward into December. Most notable is a HEDGED 700 pip USD/CAD 3 separate trades position. The rest are small fry. So that contingent liability will have to be taken into consideration. The bottom line is however that I should remain (all things being equal) above my 10,000 pips per annum objective.\r\n\r\nMore details of the November performance can be found under the HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE tab on my welcome page.\r\n\r\nStaying in sales mode; now is a great time to join the PREMIUM SERVICE and be familiar and ready to go with the 2018 launch!!\r\n\r\nFinally, …\r\n\r\nIs anyone as sick of pigging BITCOIN as I am, my SPAM folders are full of it, for the remainder of 2017 there will be no mentions of fecking BITCOIN or crypto currencies in this blog. I don’t trade it, I am at the moment not interested in it, it is just a distraction to look at the charts and whilst I am sure it will remain around for some time, at the moment, I only have two words to say about BITCOIN… me arse!\r\n\r\nI did find this gem on twitter this week however…\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/BITCOIN-TWEET-03122017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10473\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/BITCOIN-TWEET-03122017-1024x466.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"466\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong>THE FX MARKET PLACE THIS WEE</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>\r\nTHIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/ECON-DATA-03122017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10478\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/ECON-DATA-03122017-1024x989.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"989\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:</u>\r\n\r\nThere is swoop of data this week. It will be challenging to say the least. There is a great deal of Tier one data that should influence FX moves through to the year end.\r\n\r\nI think we have a pretty good understanding that the FED will raise come hell or high water, in fact “Hell” could freeze over but I still think Yellen will raise rates regardless.\r\n\r\nIn addition, of course we will continue to watch and listen to the fallout from the ex. TRUMP advisor Mike Flynn news that he will testify against the President of The United States. Having said that the “BUY THE FECKIN’ DIP” mentality even stands true when a possible impeachment case is on the horizon. After the Flynn revelations settled in and the Kushner links also came through, the markets then pared losses. No matter what the news, BUY THE DIP seems to always be the strategy in the U.S.\r\n\r\nIn no particular order: -\r\n\r\n<strong><u>AUD:</u></strong><u> CURRENT ACCOUNT, RETAIL SALES, RBA, GDP &amp; TRADE BALANCE</u>.\r\n\r\nJM&amp;J, this is what you call a “Clatter” of data. It’s all good stuff and highly directional.\r\n\r\nThe AUD has been under pressure to the downside of late. RBA policy via Governor Philip Lowe has been “Status Quo” policy neutral. The housing situation in Sydney causes huge concerns and Philip Lowe has made it clear he is no rush to raise rates but he has stated recently that the next direction of AUD rates will be higher.\r\n\r\nI rate Philip Lowe, I think he’s a thinker. I do NOT think he will want to rock any boats this week even if he has insider knowledge of any of the data numbers due to be released.\r\n\r\nRetail Sales will be a biggie. Last time around it was a 0%. If it does not post a positive number in the run up to Christmas, it never will. This is a key release in my opinion. The Current Account and Trade Balance are important but maybe not as relevant into the year-end. Like many things in December its pushed into the next Calendar year.\r\n\r\nGDP is as important as Retail Sales albeit it\'s a backward-looking number. Last quarter it was 0.8%, a minimum of a beat will be required.\r\n\r\nTrading the AUD will be awkward this week, with so much data. I enter with a lot of AUD short and long trades… so the PREMIUM SERVICE is HEDGED!!\r\n\r\n<strong><u>\r\nUSD:</u></strong><u> JOBS DATA.</u>\r\n\r\nRecently there has been no correlation between the private sector and public-sector jobs data. So, DO NOT trust that the ADP numbers will be an indication of NFP due Friday this week.\r\n\r\nThese numbers are always watched and noted, but in relation to FED policy and the FOMC interest rate decision due later this month, they are not as important in my eyes. I WILL NOT be trading NFP. I will watch and be a trading voyeur but as I have stated many, many times you more often than not have more luck with a national lottery than you do with trading FX on NFP day.\r\n\r\nAs for the numbers, as long as the 6 month averages are maintained I cannot see how the markets could be disappointed. There should be a chunk of part-time given the time of the year and this will create chaos and disorder for the initial knee-jerk reactions but when it’s all said and done its all about wage growth to show inflation. So, the Average Hourly Earnings with the NFP data on Friday will be key.\r\n\r\nI may have to hide my keyboard or take either Ozzy or Aoife for a walk as a distraction as I DO NOT want to trade NFP…. See you Friday then!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>CAD:</u></strong><u> TRADE BALANCE &amp; BOC.</u>\r\n\r\nI have two wives at the moment. My physical one and the other one is the USD/CAD. At times, I feel like I am married to three HEDGED TRADES as well. My losses are fixed at 700 pips while I wait to enter my “HEDGE OUT” trades to trigger.\r\n\r\nThe GDP and Jobs Data last Friday was a real pain in the arse, a nice little pre-data spike could have triggered my short trades. I am now I think probably waiting on this week’s data to hopefully get my entry price!\r\n\r\nWith regards to the data.\r\n\r\nThe TRADE BALANCE must move back towards positive and below CAD$3 Billion. It was April when it was last below CAD$2 Billion. It has a history of failing to meet forecasts.\r\n\r\nStephen Poloz has been a downbeat gloomy little fecker of late and it’s about time he had a spiked egg nog to cheer him up.\r\n\r\nWith the FED raising in December, there will be some pressure to follow suit. I just cannot see it this week. However, Poloz likes to surprise. One cannot rule it out. I would personally be astonished and would expect the next hike in Q1 2018.\r\n\r\nI do however think he will be a little more upbeat on the CAD economy, he should be with last week’s data and also with the run up to the year end and the Christmas holidays.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>USD MAJORS – SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS with BIAS:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/TCHART-03122017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-10479\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/TCHART-03122017.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1016\" height=\"888\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>USD – TRADING CHARTS: </u>\r\n\r\nMore often than not I will use DAILY CHARTS for my analysis. My commentary and thoughts for each trading pair are above the charts.\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n<u>EUR/USD:</u>\r\n</strong>\r\nNot much of a change in my thoughts or the chart that sits below. I think that I may have changed the colours of the lines that\'s about it!\r\n\r\nGREEN LINE = support at 1.1817\r\nPURPLE LINE = my bull / bear line at 1.1880\r\nDARK RED = resistance at 1.1960\r\nBLUE LINE = recent highs at 1.2090\r\n\r\nThe upward channel remains pretty much intact. We have been in a range of 1.1817 to 1.1960 in the past week.\r\n\r\nWe need to obviously break above or below to get this pair moving along. I have this feeling that now we are in December it will take either NFP this week or the ECB the week following to get things moving and give us a direction to follow.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/EURUSD-D-03122017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10482\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/EURUSD-D-03122017-1024x410.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"410\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP/USD:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nI had been writing all week about the 1.3450 level being broken and creating a short squeeze.\r\n\r\nThe chart below, shows a possible “CUP &amp; HANDLE” pattern being formed with a measured move to 1.3900.\r\n\r\nWe must always temper the enthusiasm vis-à-vis the cable as it is always a news release away from a BREXIT announcement that can send it 100 pips lower or 100 pips higher. At the moment, there is a huge belief and more importantly a commitment to see serious progress acknowledged prior to the end of the year. This has me leaning more to the long side.\r\n\r\nThe 76.4% Fibonacci level that sits at 1.3508 is a key level. This pair was obviously spooked on the Flynn news last Friday. A break above this level should see the pair move towards a possible 1.4000 target beyond the CUP &amp; HANDLE pattern, at the golden Fib. level of 161.8%.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/GBPUSD-D-03122017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10483\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/GBPUSD-D-03122017-1024x410.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"410\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>AUD/USD:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nThe down channel remains intact albeit it was temporarily broken on the Flynn news. I am still bearish this pair and see 1.7640 as a great level to short from but even with the Flynn revelations this level failed to be achieved.\r\n\r\nWe are in a tight trading range between the PURPLE lines on the chart 0.7530 to 0.7640.\r\n\r\nThe RBA meets this week. I am not expecting any change in policy and I expect Philip Lowe to release a statement that is once again neutral.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/AUDUSD-D-03122017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10481\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/AUDUSD-D-03122017-1024x410.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"410\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong><u>NZD/USD:\r\n</u></strong>\r\nWe have a bullish engulfing candle from last Friday. This usually means that a move higher should continue to be seen. Of late, these candles have NOT produced the follow through that is usually seen.\r\n\r\nWe are range bound between the two PURPLE lines of 0.6780 and 0.6980.\r\n\r\nTechnically, I think that this move higher just gives us a better price to short from as politically New Zealand has issues to overcome and whilst this uncertainty remains in place the pressure to the downside will always prevail.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/NZDUSD-D-03122017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10484\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/NZDUSD-D-03122017-1024x410.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"410\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD/CAD:</u></strong><strong>\r\n</strong>\r\nBugger…\r\n\r\nI really wanted to be short this pair, but I was looking for a level closer to the 200 DAY SMA and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.\r\n\r\nThat is a “helluva” BIG RED candle on the chart. Usually BIG RED candles are followed by further BIG RED candles.\r\n\r\nThe trading range is 1.2660 to 1.2915.\r\n\r\nWe have the BOC this week, I just can’t see Poloz being dovish. I see him more positive than of late and this may send the USD/CAD lower. Ideally from my point of view I want him to dismiss last Friday’s data as “Mickey Mouse:” and send the USD/CAD back to 1.3000. I just can’t envisage that happening.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD/CHF:</u></strong><strong>\r\n</strong>\r\nI am still dreaming of bull flags and pennants with this pair. The measured move is to 1.0350, which by interest is a previous level of resistance from last year.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nIf 0.9700 gives way on the back of the flight to safety move which has affected this pair following the “FLYNN” revelations, we could see a move back to the recent lows around 0.9400.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nBe ready for a snap back move with this pair its correlation with its inverse relationship with the EUR/USD is out of sync. But make no mistake, on uncertainty the flight to buy GOLD also affects the CHF.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n(INSERT USD/CHF CHART)\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD/JPY:</u></strong><u>\r\n</u>\r\nThis pair was hit hard with the “FLYNN” news.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nOn Friday that is almost a 160-pip candle from 111.40 to 113.00. Quite a move for this pair. I think that the trading range to work with is 110.80 to 113.00.  This pair will be affected the most as equities and bonds fly around on the news headlines as they are released.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nIt goes without saying, do not get too heavy in a position size as when the market is headline driven moves can whip around very quickly.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n(INSERT USD/JPY CHART)\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u>MY THOUGHTS ON HOW TO PLAY FX THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nWe are now in December. This is historically, a strange month, Christmas parties, sexual harassment claims, lawyers will be on 24x7 call outs, and from a trading perspective volatility tends to thin out as the market becomes less liquid.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nWe do have a few interesting snippets however to keep traders at their desks. The GREED factor will certainly come into play with the institutions and for us, the poor retail traders we have to be savvy and selective.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNews items that are driving the markets have been based around the US TAX BILL, BREXIT and on Friday last week ex. TRUMP National Security advisor, Mike Flynn announced that he will testify against the President. BREXIT will play on for the next two years, but this month it is crucial for UK Prime Minister, Theresa May to see acknowledged progress has been made. My focus this week is GBP related.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n(INSERT GBP MONTHLY CHART)\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nYou can see from the above Monthly GBP/USD chart that we are breaking out above a multi-year trend line (from August 2104).\r\n\r\nThis is big news if the push higher can be maintained and it should have a knock-on effect through all cable related pairs.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nOne other fact to note from the GBP/USD chart is to take a look at the November monthly candle. It is very, very bullish. In fact, when you look at the moves from the August 2016 lows the monthly candle pattern is trending nicely higher.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is currently trading EUR/GBP, GBP/AUD and GBP/JPY. I am as I have stated several times of late not 100% happy trading the USD at the moment and my focus is more away from the majors into the cross rates.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nCable will be my main focus this week along with the CAD (to initiate my “HEDGE OUT” trades).\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nWe must note that the FED report via the FOMC on December 13th, with the ECB and BOE both on the following day 14th December. I believe Friday 15th December will be the last day with anything near normal trading volumes.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAs you know I would usually write here to look at cross rate pairs as an option. My GBP trades are POSITION style trades for the long haul and my trading activity with cross rate currency pairs that already have limited liquidity will; be severely curtailed from now on given the reduced volumes ahead. The RISK of getting stuck with an increased volatile pair with reduced trading volumes is just not worth it in my opinion, no matter how much of a volatility junkie you may be.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nFinally, as we enter a period, when the USD should be demonstrating increased strength through the passing of the TAX BILL, but more importantly Central Bank divergence, as Yellen will probably raise U.S. interest rates on December 13th,\r\n\r\nWould it not seem common sense to maybe hold an emerging market cross? Maybe take a look at USD/ZAR, USD/TRY or USD/MXN.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe bottom line is to try to be cute. It is you versus the big banks.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nFLYNN: It is a RISK OFF event in my opinion. I need to see reaction on Monday this week to get a better picture. On Friday, last week when the news broke it was like watching headless chickens running around a farmyard. Kushner was linked which may have helped the markets steady. But who knows? The DXY was slammed on Friday following the news breaking, but like the markets pared back after a while (see below).\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n(INSERT DAILY DXY CHART)\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is my own subscriber based Forex support service that offers subscribers my suggested trade set-ups and market commentaries.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting the HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE tab.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT 2017 PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nPIPS TOTAL NOVEMBER 2017:  = +2,381 pips\r\n\r\nYEAR TO DATE:                              = +12,783 pips\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs on my website  <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\nAlternatively, if you prefer to watch a video recording about the PREMIUM SERVICE, click the link below. You will be directed to a 40-minute webinar presentation entitled “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE”.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS ONLY:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>4:1. TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\nWell November was the second-best pip performing month in 2017. I am carrying forward about 600 pips of negative trades plus an additional negative 700 pips of USD/CAD HEDGED trades into December. Therefore, the chances of a 2016 beat vis-à-vis pip performance looks unlikely.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe net pip total for November was 2,381 pips\r\n\r\nYear to date = 12,783 pips\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nRatios of profit / loss trades are above 75% / 25% remaining in line, but my income this year will be lower than last year and lower than 2015.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nI have had to change my style and approach to trading to accommodate the market swings which have virtually made trading in 2017 unrecognizable from 2015.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe increasing reliance on automated trades via algorithms has brought a new dynamic to FX. Some of these algorithms are “STOP HUNTERS” and this creates a different type of trading environment in which to operate. In my opinion, to achieve a trading longevity in these markets we must trade smaller with wider stops and accept that maybe earnings will be a little lower. I really think that the days of looking for 50 pips of profit on a trade with a 30-pip stop are well behind us now. In fact, I think 50 pip stops are pointless most of the time.  I am still of the opinion that Fibonacci levels, pivot points and previous interest levels are the paramount key in conjunction with some chart patterns.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAt the end of the day though, it’s still all about RISK MANAGEMENT. Whichever way you slice it, you still need to trade position sizes in line with your broker account balance.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nFollowing on from comments last week, I am revising my POSITION SIZING chart and introducing a new trade style called MOMENTUM TRADES.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nOne aspect of trading smaller positions with wider stops that cannot be ignored is that drawdowns can be larger especially with my POSITION trades which, can be based off MONTHLY ATR levels.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMOMENTUM trades will be a little riskier as they are based off MOMENTUM moves that are NOT confirmed. They will however have tighter stops which will reduce drawdown levels. With almost 50% of my trades (47.5%) now being POSITION trades it’s time to review and adjust again.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nI have almost completed a revision of my TRADE STYLE DEFINITIONS and redefined existing styles to increase clarity for next year. This should be on the website soon, along with the new POSITION SIZING spreadsheet. I will email copies as well.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nI am undecided on the re-introduction of the weekly webinar. I cannot find a suitable vehicle that is iMac compatible. I will keep looking.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>4:2. SENTIMENT CHART,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:\r\n\r\n</u>\r\n\r\nLast Friday was a strange day, there was the US TAX BILL shenanigans, BREXIT confusion and mis-quotes coming back and forth from North Korea. The DAILY candles were strange based upon what one would have thought to have seen via continuation moves off the close of the November monthly candles.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nSentiment however was disrupted last Friday on the back of the Michael Flynn news. Prior to the bombshell breaking I was in the camp that USD should remain positive moving towards the year end based off the FED rate hike due on the 13th December. Initially we saw a massive drop in the DXY, but then we had the usual “BUY THE DIP” mentality set in.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMoving forward, my thoughts are based around long GBP trades. I spent a good few hours putting together potential GBP related ARMAGEDDON trades. These look redundant now. I will NOT be rushing in to participate in this market, I want to see the dust settle on the Flynn fallout.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nI will be running down trades and RISK EXPOSURE into the holidays and as mentioned already, the last day of reasonable volume I expect to be on Friday 15th December after the FOMC, ECB and BOE are out of the way. Of course, I am ignoring BREXIT and other geopolitical news events that could happen.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nLooking at the sentiment chart, sentiment is still mixed.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n(INSERT MARKET SENTIMENT CHART)\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4:3. TRADING PLANS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u>4:3.1. TRADING PLAN OVERVIEW THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMy action plan for the week is: -\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>USD sentiment is still all over the place. Flynn revelations have not helped. I think it should be treated as RISK OFF but I need to wait, see and evaluate. Therefore, I will stay away as much as possible from the majors.</li>\r\n 	<li>Plan GBP long trades. There are some nice pullbacks from Friday last week that should offer some nice levels. Again, I need to evaluate, digest and absorb the Flynn fallout.</li>\r\n 	<li>CAD HEDGES. I am looking for my entry at 1.2980 to trigger. I just can’t see that this week, anything close to 1.2900 I will see as a gift. I am annoyed via hindsight that I did not short at 1.2910. I need to see what Poloz says this Wednesday and then decide. I will have an either/or plan in place prior to the BOC.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u>4:3.2.  EXISTING CORE TRADES (PLANS &amp; STRATEGIES):</u>\r\n\r\nI am STILL bearish the CAD, AUD and NZD currencies. I am now bullish cable!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe Flynn revelations turned the markets upside down last Friday and the uncertainties that this brings with it need to be absorbed and digested.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE CAD:</u></strong>\r\nCurrently, I am live the following: -\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n3 x live short USD/CAD trades. All three are HEDGED. No OUT trades are placed yet.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>MY PLAN:</u>  - My belief is still that the USD/CAD is a short trade. I am waiting for 1.2910-1.2980 to establish 3 x “OUT” trades for my HEDGED trades.  I have my “OUT” trade LIMIT ORDERS in place at 1.2980. Be prepared, I could be waiting several weeks here until the market conditions are right.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nI have no plans currently to place / related trades against other pairs.\r\n\r\n<strong><u> </u></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong><u> </u></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE NZD</u></strong>:\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nCurrently I have 4 x live long AUD/NZD trades, and a NZD/USD short trade in play.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nPlus: - I have 4 more AUD/NZD long trades in position, plus, a NZD/JPY and a further NZD/USD short trades as LIMIT ORDERS in position.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>MY PLAN:</u> - I will be looking to add NZD trades across the board as soon as I see a meaningful pullback to provide beneficial pricing. After the Flynn fallout is rationalized.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE AUD:</u></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong><u> </u></strong>\r\n\r\nCurrently live I have an AUD/USD short and GBP/AUD long trade in position.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nPlus: - I have an additional AUD/USD short LIMIT ORDER.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>MY PLAN:</u> - To add back trades across the board at the start of this coming week that I removed at the end of last week.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE GBP:</u></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong><u> </u></strong>\r\n\r\nCurrently I have a EUR/GBP short and GBP/AUD and GBP/JPY long trades in play.\r\n\r\n<strong><u> </u></strong>\r\n\r\n<u>MY PLAN</u>: - Is to add additional cable cross rate pairs, GBP/NZD and staged “Buy Stop” entries across several pairs.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nI do want to see the dust settle first after the volatility of last Friday first. I am NOT in any rush to participate.\r\n\r\n<strong><u> </u></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong><u> </u></strong>\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u>4:4. CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n\r\n</u>\r\n\r\nCURRENT LIVE TRADES:\r\n\r\n\r\nCURRENT LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4:5. FX BROKER NEWS with their MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nYou may have seen examples similar to these (see below) over the past few weeks.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nSo, the brokers intentions are clear. BONUS $$$ and FREE WEBINARS. Be very careful on the offers there are NO free lunches in FX.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n(INSERT HANTEC MARKETS &amp; AVA TRADE ADVERTS)\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FINAL SHOTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you have read in this blog and would like the chance to win a FREE SUBSCRIPTION valued at CAD$150.00, all you need to do is subscribe to my FREE NEWSLETTER (this blog), by adding your email address on my welcome page just below my cube logo at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u>PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTIONS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you’ve read in this blog and should you want to go a stage further and subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE, this can be done on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the Tab SUBSCRIBE HERE.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nSubscribing to the PREMIUM SERVICE is not just about receiving a larger “DRIVE THRU” blog packed with more trading supporting information, my thoughts and ideas. There is much more to a subscription than those things. Check it all out under the tab HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAlternatively, if you prefer to watch a video recording about the PREMIUM SERVICE, click the link below. You will be directed to a 40-minute webinar presentation entitled “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE”.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u>CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\n\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #157 PREMIUM SERVICE\r\n3rd December 2017\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','NO MATTER WHAT… U.S. TRADERS BUY THE DIP','','inherit','closed','closed','','10488-revision-v1','','','2017-12-02 13:00:05','2017-12-02 18:00:05','',10488,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/10488-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),