Good Morning / Good Day,

Here we go again today, another ECB Press Conference.

What will Draghi do?

The markets appear hell bent on a EUR/USD exchange rate of 1.4000. There are so many longs right now it's a little frightening. Never say never, but the ECB are reactive people not proactive. They have not acted on deflationary  statistics for months so why would they change on monetary policy to ease the EUR strength? Yes, big businesses are now complaining about high FX  charges, but history shows that the ECB could not give a rats a** about complaints from whatever area of the economy.

I have no idea, it's all guesswork until Draghi sits down.

I will be looking to add to my EUR/USD short if the EUR/USD gets above 1.4025 and if it drags the GBP/USD with it a short around 1.7050 (2009 high) looks good.

The NZD looks weak and 0.8640 is critical support that held yesterday. I will add to my NZD/USD short below this level. Remember, this pair is driven by flows, usually, when it gets directional it sticks to it. It looks like its rolling over properly. 0.8640 is key level, keep it in mind.

It's all eyes on the Draghi Press Conference at 0830 EDT. This news event will drive the market.

If the EUR falls check out the USD/CHF long if it breaks above 0.8770...it could squeeze above this level, but it all depends on the EUR action.

I will check in on Twitter should I see something....

Scott

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