(6421,1,'2015-09-12 14:30:54','2015-09-12 19:30:54','<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>THE PREMIUM SERVICE</strong>\r\n<strong>from the</strong>\r\n<strong>WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU</strong>\r\n<strong>“The Home of Single Lot Trading\"</strong></p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li><strong> THE VIEW FROM MY TRADE DESK:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nLOOKING BACKWARDS, FORWARDS &amp; SIDEWAYS (FOR GOOD MEASURE) AT THE FX MARKET:\r\n\r\n1.1: LOOKING BACKWARDS:\r\n\r\nIt’s great to be back behind my desk and in front of my screens again. It was a short holiday this summer that involved a house move so it was not stress free.\r\n\r\nThe summer doldrums feeling of watching paint dry, was replaced this year by the China slowdown finally gaining traction with the PBOC intervening in the currency markets. Finally the complacency seen in the markets that I had been talking about for months may have resonated. Unfortunately, the markets have the attention span of a four-year-old child and quickly revert to character, that is reactionary. All the talk about future pricing indicators etc. frankly I believe to be 80% bulls**t.\r\n\r\nWith regards to the PBOC intervention, the pundits on TV were quick to complain about manipulation, Holy Mother of God talk about “Pot – Kettle – Black”, the cries of currency manipulation were shouted high from the rooftops. Big fecking deal the PBOC was not the first nor will it be the last Central Bank to intervene and try to play God to protect its economy. Since the financial crash in 2008-9, we have been in a currency war with central banks basically in a race to devalue and protect economies. Many have called it a race to the bottom…that is what it is. It was highlighted amusingly by the cartoon of Ben Bernanke receiving clearance for take off in his helicopter to drop bucket loads of freshly printed $100 bills into Wall Street….\r\n\r\nTaking a different view, I would be more concerned about the fact that not one central bank governor or president on the planet has the cure for DEFLATION. It would appear that because they have no effective control of DEFLATION they focus on printing money instead. The DEFLATION headline has disappeared recently, it’s obviously not trendy anymore, but the issue is still there unresolved across most of the G7 countries.\r\n\r\nThe more recent news involving the RBNZ and BOC interests me right now. Prior to last weeks Central Bank rate decisions and statements, both Poloz (BOC) and Wheeler (RBNZ), in my opinion have spent most of the past six to nine months in denial.\r\n\r\nJust looking backwards with the BOC and RBNZ for a moment…\r\n\r\nStephen Poloz completely misread the oil situation. All his prayers to help the Alberta oil rich province fell on deaf ears and his hopes for a nice quick sustained bounce in the price of crude, disappeared as quickly as a Jack and Diet would do in front of me on a hot summers day. He surprised us with an unexpected cut in July and subsequently he has gone into jawbone mode. Canada is now in recession.\r\n\r\nGraeme Wheeler aka “wheeler the dealer”; has on the other hand, completely confused me from day one. In one press release I read that the RBNZ considered the Kiwi to be over-valued so what did he do? He raised the damn rate… Jesus Mary and Joseph he just raised rates…. good Lord. In the name of sanity how is raising rates going to help weaken his currency? (Answers on a postcard please). He has confused many times with what his policy is actually aimed at achieving. I think that in the past I have used the phrase left hand and right hand in relation to Graeme Wheeler’s thought process. In summation, I would not like to play cards against him that\'s for sure.\r\n\r\nThis past week…\r\n\r\nThe BOC kept interest rates on hold. In the statement BOC governor Stephen Poloz stated that the stimulus from the previous rate cut was working its way through the economy… yeah right!! I think if he were to come out from behind his desk, step off the lush thick pile carpet of his office, leave the indoor exotic plants to one side for a short while and gauge opinion from small businesses and the man/woman on the street he would hear something different. Personally, I can see a further rate cut happening as the lower oil price feeds in further, placing strain on the economy and confidence. In addition, food prices seem incredibly expensive at the moment, that will do wonders for inflation, however, higher prices and inflation with lower wage increases causes unrest amongst the voters.\r\n\r\nPoloz has it wrong in my opinion; most people are fearful of the economy at the moment, Canada is in recession. They are not spending savings on gas (petrol) on luxury items. To be frank, to make that statement, is in my opinion, either camels**t, cows**t or bulls**t. To believe people are going out buying expensive items in a recession on $0.20 a litre saving on gas is frankly the belief of someone detached from reality.\r\n\r\nI believe that an interest rate cut is on its way for the Canadian economy sooner rather than later. The only reason it did not happen last week was because of the upcoming general election… party political government pressure… the party in power would say that no pressure would be placed on the central bank policy… that it would just not happen…yeah right!!\r\n\r\nThe RBNZ cut interest rates by 0.25%. We saw a huge sell off in the Kiwi but it was halted (in the middle of the night for me) as the PBOC announced more easing in relation to “Yuan pooling”… thanks to the PBOC the NZD/USD spiked and stopped me out of a nice short trade…argh!!\r\n\r\nThe RBNZ in announcing its cut did not rule out more cuts in the future as it’s supportive / dovish monetary policy takes hold. This is obviously bearish for the NZD currency and with a FED rate increase on the cards this divergent central bank monetary stance makes the Kiwi a nice short opportunity against the USD.\r\n\r\nWith reference to the FED rate increase, I have my own take on that later in this blog.\r\n\r\nAdditionally during the week, the BOJ had handbags at ten paces over negative interest rates. I think that there may be a last ditch attempt by the BOJ at this weeks interest rate / policy statement to talk about more QE (Quantitative Easing), not that I think it will do much for the economy but it will float stock prices and maybe send the USD/JPY to 130.00. This may be one BOJ announcement I try to stay up for.\r\n\r\nFinally, GREECE…. the forgotten news item; it just goes to show how fickle these markets are. A few short weeks ago the sky was falling, the EUR was going to hell and back. Now the EUR is considered a safe haven currency…what!! The EUR a safe-haven give me a break. That is a whole new story but not for now. What interests me is that we could see Greece implode, not that there is much left to implode at this stage, however whatever fallout there is will affect the EUROZONE. Talk about complacency, it beggars belief at times. This will be a story that gathers more and more attention.\r\n\r\nAll of the above were market movers of one sort or another last week, probably with the exception of GREECE. The great fact about trading Forex is that there is a market everyday. You can always come back the next day to do battle (if that’s how it feels sometimes). Finding the high probability trades can be painful sometimes and a huge amount of patience is required to successfully trade Forex, but at least there are opportunities.\r\n\r\n1.2: LOOKING FORWARDS:\r\n\r\nMAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:\r\n\r\n(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market other than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to <a href=\"http://www.forexfactory.com\">www.forexfactory.com</a> and <a href=\"http://www.tradingeconomics.com\">www.tradingeconomics.com</a> for a more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).\r\nSUNDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: AUD – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: USD – Retail and Core Retail Sales.\r\nTUESDAY: NZD – Dairy Auction Prices.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – CPi and Core CPi data.\r\nWEDNESDAY: NZD – GDP.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: CHF – SNB Monetary Policy Statement.\r\nTHURSDAY: USD – FOMC Statement /FED Funds Rate &amp; Press Conference.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: CAD – Core CPi.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMY THOUGHTS ON THE NEWS ITEMS THIS COMING WEEK:\r\n\r\nWhilst there are some interesting news events this week, currency moves will be dominated by the FOMC on Thursday. We could see a lot of stunted moves this week as no one, quite understandably, would want to establish core trading positions ahead of the FOMC.\r\n\r\nFrom my own perspective I would not be surprised to see a rate hike, and, ahead of the announcement I will be establishing some very small long USD positions from which, I can add to or just chop. Having just written this, in addition, at the back of mind I am wondering if after the initial knee-jerk reaction to the news will we see the usual “Buy the rumour / Sell the news” event. I know that the potential rate hike gives us divergent central bank policies but so much of this must have been baked in by now and the true effect of the divergence may take a day or two to sink in and work its way through.\r\n\r\nThis move by the FED is not just EUR/USD there are commodity prices and emerging markets to consider plus I reckon the PBOC may play its “joker” within 24 hours of the FOMC.\r\n\r\nFundamentally, I know where I am and where I want to be but the unknowns have to be considered and factored in. Let me put it this way… I will not be leaping for joy with a full size long USD position immediately if the FOMC raises rates. I will not be celebrating with balloons in my office and my feet in buckets of sand under the desk drinking Pina Coladas with umbrellas until I have seen confirmation of the USD move. So I would suggest caution.\r\n\r\nThe U.S. CPi and Retail Sales data ahead of the FOMC will be key data, whether or not they provide the nail in the coffin to a move higher or are so weak as to cause a delay, you should expect greater immediate volatility around the data releases. Whether this volatility will be sustained, I don’t know, it depends on the data.\r\n\r\nRemember longevity in Forex is paramount to one’s trading success. This will only be achieved if you trade appropriate position sizes to the balance of your broker account and if you adopt a true RISK MANAGEMENT approach to the trading activity. I always have a plan and I trade my plan with my trading disciplines intact.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMY KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS THIS WEEK FOR USD MAJORS<strong>:\r\n</strong>(All of my thoughts / ideas / support / resistance levels are noted on the charts below. As always I have cleaned these charts as much as possible to try to enable the viewer to see what I am talking about, without tens of indicators clouding the screen. If you want charts with indicators galore just ask me, they are available on request).\r\n\r\nEUR/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.1338\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURUSD-DAILY-12092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6416\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURUSD-DAILY-12092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"EURUSD DAILY 12092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.5429\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GBPUSD-DAILY-12092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6415\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GBPUSD-DAILY-12092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"GBPUSD DAILY 12092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.7093\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/AUDUSD-DAILY-12092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6417\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/AUDUSD-DAILY-12092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"AUDUSD DAILY 12092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.6312\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/NZDUSD-DAILY-12092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6414\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/NZDUSD-DAILY-12092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"NZDUSD DAILY 12092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.3262\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCAD-DAILY-12092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6413\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCAD-DAILY-12092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"USDCAD DAILY 12092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF - Weekly Closing Price: 0.9694\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCHF-DAILY-12092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6412\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCHF-DAILY-12092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"USDCHF DAILY 12092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY - Weekly Closing Price: 120.57\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDJPY-DAILY-12092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6411\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDJPY-DAILY-12092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"USDJPY DAILY 12092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n1.3: LOOKING SIDEWAYS (FOR GOOD MEASURE):\r\n\r\nAlthough I have only been back in my office for about 10 days, basically re-familiarizing with the markets, reading and setting up initial trades, the currency market still looks like a scalpers paradise and at best a day trader’s marketplace. Longer term moves because of the choppiness that surrounds uncertainty is playing its part really well at keeping the swing traders pegged back to a large extent.\r\n\r\nI have highlighted potential opportunities within the USD majors for this coming week. I am however very cautious this week given that the FOMC will dominate proceedings. My feelings are that we will just mainly be range bound up until the FOMC release. My gut feeling is that as usual when there is a major news announcement all that happens is that most well traded pairs gravitate to the middle of their range in anticipation of the data release.\r\n\r\nFrom a traders perspective this week, in my opinion, whilst I can fully understand wanting to be long the USD ahead of the FOMC on Thursday, I would certainly be in the camp of, if you have trading positions open, they should be smaller. In my opinion, this is the week to pull back a little on being over exposed ahead of the FOMC.\r\n\r\nEffective RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT is the order of the day.\r\n\r\nWhether you decide to be in trades or be in $$$$ just be careful.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n	<li><strong> WHAT’S ON MY MIND:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">WILL THE FOMC DITHER\r\nOR\r\nWILL YELLEN  DELIVER THE PUNCH?</p>\r\nI went away on my summer break this year sick to the back teeth of hearing the ongoing FOMC relentless banter of; will they, won’t they, should they or shouldn’t they raise rates. Back from my break and it\'s the same debate…September, October, December, Holy Mother of God, please stop.\r\n\r\nHere are my thoughts; for seven or eight years the U.S. has basically had zero interest rates. All I hear is how good the U.S. economy is and how resilient the U.S. economy is, for all this good and resilience it can’t handle a 0.25% rate hike after eight years? Will you give me a bloody break? Either the U.S. data is as questionable as the Chinese data, or Wall Street has Janet Yellen’s arm twisted so far up her back that she cant sign the piece of paper sanctioning the rate increase.\r\n\r\nOne thing I do know is that Main Street USA needs confidence, if rates do not move they will believe that they are being fed bulls**t once again and confidence in the economy will nose dive. Main Street functions on “Ra-Ra’s”, the U.S. economy needs confidence as it is consumer driven. This consumer confidence feeds so many internal markets, housing, home improvements, retail spending, wholesale inventories etc.\r\n\r\nIf the FOMC just carries on supporting the pen pushing, desk sucking, jotter blotters from Wall Street, Yellen is in danger of being viewed as Bernanke in a skirt sucking up to and holding the hands of the few Wall Street individuals who are unable to function without the FED as a backstop.\r\n\r\nWith regards to the U.S. economy, the bravado from political commentators and analysts versus the actual economic data, which is mixed, makes for great TV but the continual mixed messages regarding the U.S. economic recovery and its strength is frankly confusing to many people. All this does is create uncertainty and affect confidence. It is quite bizarre and this continued uncertainty is bad for the markets.\r\n\r\nShould the FOMC raise rates, I think that after the dust has settled my long and well-known fundamental views on divergent monetary policy by central banks will come into play. The USD should strengthen across the board. I do however have this buy the rumour sell the news feeling. This 0.25% hike has had so much press coverage for months, but, it could be the biggest non-event ever after the dust settles.\r\n\r\nShould the FOMC delay “All bets are off” as far as I am concerned for a good few days, although unless the FED changes monetary policy, very unlikely, it just means the rate increase is more inevitable and closer moving ahead? However, a delay, in my opinion is weakness, and frankly it will create uncertainty and we will have volatility based around uncertainty, which is the worst type of volatility to have.\r\n\r\nShould a delay happen, the analysts on CNBC would be running around like headless chickens trying to be the one who makes the most outrageous timing prediction moving ahead? You can just imagine the exaggerated headlines to keep viewers hooked… “Christmas at the FED is off”… “Janet Yellen has no time to buy a turkey this year as she agonizes over rate hike” and so on. Any proposed rate increases around December will of course create additional headlines and could affect sales around Thanksgiving (November 26<sup>th</sup>), “Black Friday” and “Cyber Monday”. This is why I think the FED will raise this week.\r\n\r\nWhich is worse for the markets… being decisive or being a ditherer?\r\n\r\nIf you trade in equities, which I do not, it may be a time to invest in toilet paper / bathroom tissue etc. as the FED backstop to Wall Street is coming to an end. There will be some very confused people on Wall Street not being able to “Buy the dip” anymore. My God, chart analysis, company profiling, accurate valuations, product lines, supply and demand, management abilities, corporate strategic planning documents might all have to be taken into consideration for investment advice. It has the makings of a trading range sideways market for a while, unless the FED moves rates on a regular basis\r\n\r\nEven if the FOMC raises rates and its viewed as an error in the future, the FOMC has at least had a weapon other than QE5 or whatever number we are at, in its armory, which, is more than what it has now!\r\n\r\nThere is so much to consider for the FOMC, therefore it may be sensible to trade small if not at all until the news is out\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:\r\n</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n3.1: SUMMARY OF YEAR TO DATE PERFORMANCE - 2015:\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">PREMIUM SERVICE – COST INCOME ANALYSIS (USD):</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">EMANATING FROM TRADE SET-UPS – to September 11th 2015.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">MICRO LOT TRADER - 479 trades cost to trade = $47.90\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 479 trades = <strong>$761.90</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">MINI LOT TRADER - 479 trades cost to trade = $479.00\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 479 trades = <strong>$7,619.00</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">STANDARD LOT TRADER - 479 trades cost to trade = $4,790.00\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 479 trades = <strong>$76,190.00</strong></p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n3.2: PREMIUM SERVICE – TRADE SUMMARIES MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PS-PROFITS1-12092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6401\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PS-PROFITS1-12092015.png\" alt=\"PS PROFITS1 12092015\" width=\"462\" height=\"419\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PS-PROFITS-2-12092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6402\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PS-PROFITS-2-12092015.png\" alt=\"PS PROFITS 2 12092015\" width=\"459\" height=\"420\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNOTES:\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>If the above return from Forex Trading interests you go to my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> and check out the subscription options and special promotions under the tabs “PREMIUM SERVICE” and “PROMOTIONS”</li>\r\n	<li>The performance above is based off single-lot trade sizes.</li>\r\n	<li>THE PREMIUM SERVICE has subscribers with broker accounts of sizes ranging from $2,500 to over $100,000. A profitable trade is a profitable trade. It is all about trading according to the size of your broker account (EFFECTIVE POSITION SIZING) and applying RISK MANAGEMENT principles at all times.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n	<li><strong>PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) SUBSCRIBER CONTENT:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(The following section is additional data, thoughts, and ideas exclusively for PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) subscribers)\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.1: THE PREMIUM SERVICE – TRADING REVIEW &amp; LOOKING FORWARD:\r\n\r\nAt one point last week, I had wished that I had taken another week of vacation time. Almost every trade I had open reversed or limit orders triggered with stop loss levels that I thought to be good and secure being broken.\r\n\r\nThankfully, I have been trading long enough to expect these sort of trading days. The big issue that I had was that it affected all styles of trades and for that reason I did not look for several longer-term FUNDAMENTAL trades. I have decided to basically wait until after the FOMC.\r\n\r\nLooking back to verify my thoughts and levels on three trades, the AUD/USD, NZD/USD and USD/CAD trades. The Aussie and Loonie, I should have exited with healthy profits after NFP, I did not expect the USD gains to be given back and the Kiwi trade was “squeezy” above 0.6300 and it ran to the next resistance at 0.6400. I would not have done anything different at the times the trades were set up. The PREMIUM SERVICE booked 190 pip losses on these trades, very annoying, however, it’s done, it’s over, we move on.\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is carrying forward 4 live trades all under water. I believe that I am in these trades in the correct direction. I am holding my nerve but if required I will reduce position sizes to keep within my RISK MANAGEMENT tolerances although I am prepared to stretch these just a little at the moment given the circumstances.\r\n\r\nAs mentioned numerous times already the FOMC will dictate trading this coming week. We will, I fear, be headline news and sound byte driven as we approach this Thursday and it makes sense to be cautious given the fact the markets will not be as liquid.\r\n\r\nMy FUNDAMENTAL plan, well documented based upon divergent monetary policies between central banks is still in play as far as I am concerned until Janet Yellen says that she is changing FED monetary policy.\r\n\r\nMy focus on currency pairs to trade after the FOMC, and I am not suggesting “an all in” approach either, will be with the EUR/USD, EUR/GBP short the USD/CHF to the long side. In addition to these pairs I will be looking to establish shorts with the AUD/USD and NZD/USD and with the USD/CAD to the long side. It is not my intention to be in all these pairs straightway but it will be determined by the FED data and the details of the statement plus the “verbal’s” in the press conference that follows the announcement.\r\n\r\nI will be looking at the cross rates and I hope to be able to secure reasonable entry levels long with the GBP/NZD (already live) and maybe adding the GBP/CAD, GBP/AUD, EUR/CAD, EUR/AUD and EUR/NZD. These trades will be very attractive should we have a RISK-OFF environment.\r\n\r\nTrading with the JPY pairs will based upon the reaction of the equity markets.\r\n\r\nBasically, what I am saying is that I want to be looking across the board at most pairs, as the FED deal will have a bearing on equities, commodities in general and especially OIL. We should have a great run in towards the end of the year if Janet Yellen plays ball. Lets see, I hope that she does.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.2: MAJOR TRADING PAIRS WITH LONGER-TERM MATCHING TRENDS:\r\n\r\n(The following currency pairs have Short Term (DAILY), Medium Term (WEEKLY) and Long Term (MONTHLY) charts all trending in the same direction).\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PS-TRENDING-PAIRS-12092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6408\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PS-TRENDING-PAIRS-12092015.png\" alt=\"PS TRENDING PAIRS 12092015\" width=\"499\" height=\"623\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.3: THE PREMIUM SERVICE - LIVE TRADES ARE:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PS-LIVE-TRADES-12092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6410\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PS-LIVE-TRADES-12092015.png\" alt=\"PS LIVE TRADES 12092015\" width=\"720\" height=\"569\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.4: THE PREMIUM SERVICE – LIMIT ORDER TRADES ARE:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PS-LIMIT-ORDERS-12092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6409\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PS-LIMIT-ORDERS-12092015.png\" alt=\"PS LIMIT ORDERS 12092015\" width=\"708\" height=\"449\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.5: POTENTIAL TRADES - WHAT PAIRS / CHARTS AM I LOOKING AT?\r\n\r\nHeading into next week I am pretty comfortable with the live trades that I have in operation, maybe not the financial side of the trades but I feel that I am in the trades in the correct direction.\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is live with EUR/USD short (two trades) and long both the GBP/NZD and AUD/NZD.\r\n\r\nThe limit order trades in position are EUR/CHF, USD/CHF and USD/CAD long with the NZD/USD short.\r\n\r\nI am trying to keep and open mind on other trades; I would like to be short the AUD/USD but I feel that I must be patient and be convinced that the AUD bounce is over. I think around 0.7200 makes sense (see the chart below).\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/AUDUSD-DAILY-12092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6417\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/AUDUSD-DAILY-12092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"AUDUSD DAILY 12092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nIn addition, should the USD/CAD break through 1.3350, I would like to look at the EUR/CAD and GBP/CAD to the long side, both trades have interesting potential profit objectives (see the charts below).\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURCAD-MONTHLY-12092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6420\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURCAD-MONTHLY-12092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"EURCAD MONTHLY 12092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GBPCAD-MONTHLY-12092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6418\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GBPCAD-MONTHLY-12092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"GBPCAD MONTHLY 12092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nFinally the EUR/GBP is my favourite pair to trade. I am waiting for the FOMC first, but I am biased short on this one (chart below).\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURGBP-DAILY-12092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6419\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURGBP-DAILY-12092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"EURGBP DAILY 12092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n	<li><strong> MY FINAL THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nOVERVIEW OF TRADING TIPS &amp; THOUGHTS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD:\r\n\r\nI am repeating myself a great deal this week.\r\n\r\nIt will be a quiet week of trading up to the FOMC on Thursday, no one will want to be establishing core trade set ups and people / institutions may well be exiting trades which will cause volatility spikes when they happen. Do not get suckered into these as you can end up on the wrong side of the trade very easily.\r\n\r\nI will be taking some positions into the FOMC in addition to those held at the moment that I hope to retain through the FOMC into profit.\r\n\r\nI am currently short EUR/USD and long GBP/NZD and AUD/NZD.\r\n\r\nI am looking to add and I have limit orders in position for the USD/CHF, EUR/CHF and USD/CAD long plus the NZD/USD short. I am hoping to add one more trade ahead of the FOMC, with the others following the press conference.\r\n\r\nIt is a big week that will in my opinion set the market up for the next few months. I am really hoping that we have directional trading as a result and no more of this chop-chop daily affair that is with us at the moment.\r\n\r\nTrade smart. POSITION SIZE to your broker size and use RISK MANAGEMENT to the penny. These are two of the keys to longevity in trading.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nTake care.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nhttps://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/','WILL THE FOMC DITHER OR WILL YELLEN DELIVER THE PUNCH?','','publish','open','closed','','will-the-fomc-dither-or-will-yellen-deliver-the-punch','','','2015-09-12 14:30:54','2015-09-12 19:30:54','',0,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?post_type=member_posts&#038;p=6421',0,'member_posts','',0),(6422,1,'2015-09-12 14:28:01','2015-09-12 19:28:01','<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>THE PREMIUM SERVICE</strong>\r\n<strong>from the</strong>\r\n<strong>WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU</strong>\r\n<strong>“The Home of Single Lot Trading\"</strong></p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li><strong> THE VIEW FROM MY TRADE DESK:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nLOOKING BACKWARDS, FORWARDS &amp; SIDEWAYS (FOR GOOD MEASURE) AT THE FX MARKET:\r\n\r\n1.1: LOOKING BACKWARDS:\r\n\r\nIt’s great to be back behind my desk and in front of my screens again. It was a short holiday this summer that involved a house move so it was not stress free.\r\n\r\nThe summer doldrums feeling of watching paint dry, was replaced this year by the China slowdown finally gaining traction with the PBOC intervening in the currency markets. Finally the complacency seen in the markets that I had been talking about for months may have resonated. Unfortunately, the markets have the attention span of a four-year-old child and quickly revert to character, that is reactionary. All the talk about future pricing indicators etc. frankly I believe to be 80% bulls**t.\r\n\r\nWith regards to the PBOC intervention, the pundits on TV were quick to complain about manipulation, Holy Mother of God talk about “Pot – Kettle – Black”, the cries of currency manipulation were shouted high from the rooftops. Big fecking deal the PBOC was not the first nor will it be the last Central Bank to intervene and try to play God to protect its economy. Since the financial crash in 2008-9, we have been in a currency war with central banks basically in a race to devalue and protect economies. Many have called it a race to the bottom…that is what it is. It was highlighted amusingly by the cartoon of Ben Bernanke receiving clearance for take off in his helicopter to drop bucket loads of freshly printed $100 bills into Wall Street….\r\n\r\nTaking a different view, I would be more concerned about the fact that not one central bank governor or president on the planet has the cure for DEFLATION. It would appear that because they have no effective control of DEFLATION they focus on printing money instead. The DEFLATION headline has disappeared recently, it’s obviously not trendy anymore, but the issue is still there unresolved across most of the G7 countries.\r\n\r\nThe more recent news involving the RBNZ and BOC interests me right now. Prior to last weeks Central Bank rate decisions and statements, both Poloz (BOC) and Wheeler (RBNZ), in my opinion have spent most of the past six to nine months in denial.\r\n\r\nJust looking backwards with the BOC and RBNZ for a moment…\r\n\r\nStephen Poloz completely misread the oil situation. All his prayers to help the Alberta oil rich province fell on deaf ears and his hopes for a nice quick sustained bounce in the price of crude, disappeared as quickly as a Jack and Diet would do in front of me on a hot summers day. He surprised us with an unexpected cut in July and subsequently he has gone into jawbone mode. Canada is now in recession.\r\n\r\nGraeme Wheeler aka “wheeler the dealer”; has on the other hand, completely confused me from day one. In one press release I read that the RBNZ considered the Kiwi to be over-valued so what did he do? He raised the damn rate… Jesus Mary and Joseph he just raised rates…. good Lord. In the name of sanity how is raising rates going to help weaken his currency? (Answers on a postcard please). He has confused many times with what his policy is actually aimed at achieving. I think that in the past I have used the phrase left hand and right hand in relation to Graeme Wheeler’s thought process. In summation, I would not like to play cards against him that\'s for sure.\r\n\r\nThis past week…\r\n\r\nThe BOC kept interest rates on hold. In the statement BOC governor Stephen Poloz stated that the stimulus from the previous rate cut was working its way through the economy… yeah right!! I think if he were to come out from behind his desk, step off the lush thick pile carpet of his office, leave the indoor exotic plants to one side for a short while and gauge opinion from small businesses and the man/woman on the street he would hear something different. Personally, I can see a further rate cut happening as the lower oil price feeds in further, placing strain on the economy and confidence. In addition, food prices seem incredibly expensive at the moment, that will do wonders for inflation, however, higher prices and inflation with lower wage increases causes unrest amongst the voters.\r\n\r\nPoloz has it wrong in my opinion; most people are fearful of the economy at the moment, Canada is in recession. They are not spending savings on gas (petrol) on luxury items. To be frank, to make that statement, is in my opinion, either camels**t, cows**t or bulls**t. To believe people are going out buying expensive items in a recession on $0.20 a litre saving on gas is frankly the belief of someone detached from reality.\r\n\r\nI believe that an interest rate cut is on its way for the Canadian economy sooner rather than later. The only reason it did not happen last week was because of the upcoming general election… party political government pressure… the party in power would say that no pressure would be placed on the central bank policy… that it would just not happen…yeah right!!\r\n\r\nThe RBNZ cut interest rates by 0.25%. We saw a huge sell off in the Kiwi but it was halted (in the middle of the night for me) as the PBOC announced more easing in relation to “Yuan pooling”… thanks to the PBOC the NZD/USD spiked and stopped me out of a nice short trade…argh!!\r\n\r\nThe RBNZ in announcing its cut did not rule out more cuts in the future as it’s supportive / dovish monetary policy takes hold. This is obviously bearish for the NZD currency and with a FED rate increase on the cards this divergent central bank monetary stance makes the Kiwi a nice short opportunity against the USD.\r\n\r\nWith reference to the FED rate increase, I have my own take on that later in this blog.\r\n\r\nAdditionally during the week, the BOJ had handbags at ten paces over negative interest rates. I think that there may be a last ditch attempt by the BOJ at this weeks interest rate / policy statement to talk about more QE (Quantitate Easing), not that I think it will do much for the economy but it will float stock prices and maybe send the USD/JPY to 130.00. This may be one BOJ announcement I try to stay up for.\r\n\r\nFinally, GREECE…. the forgotten news item; it just goes to show how fickle these markets are. A few short weeks ago the sky was falling, the EUR was going to hell and back. Now the EUR is considered a safe haven currency…what!! The EUR a safe-haven give me a break. That is a whole new story but not for now. What interests me is that we could see Greece implode, not that there is much left to implode at this stage, however whatever fallout there is will affect the EUROZONE. Talk about complacency, it beggars belief at times. This will be a story that gathers more and more attention.\r\n\r\nAll of the above were market movers of one sort or another last week, probably with the exception of GREECE. The great fact about trading Forex is that there is a market everyday. You can always come back the next day to do battle (if that’s how it feels sometimes). Finding the high probability trades can be painful sometimes and a huge amount of patience is required to successfully trade Forex, but at least there are opportunities.\r\n\r\n1.2: LOOKING FORWARDS:\r\n\r\nMAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:\r\n\r\n(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market other than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to <a href=\"http://www.forexfactory.com\">www.forexfactory.com</a> and <a href=\"http://www.tradingeconomics.com\">www.tradingeconomics.com</a> for a more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).\r\nSUNDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: AUD – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: USD – Retail and Core Retail Sales.\r\nTUESDAY: NZD – Dairy Auction Prices.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – CPi and Core CPi data.\r\nWEDNESDAY: NZD – GDP.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: CHF – SNB Monetary Policy Statement.\r\nTHURSDAY: USD – FOMC Statement /FED Funds Rate &amp; Press Conference.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: CAD – Core CPi.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMY THOUGHTS ON THE NEWS ITEMS THIS COMING WEEK:\r\n\r\nWhilst there are some interesting news events this week, currency moves will be dominated by the FOMC on Thursday. We could see a lot of stunted moves this week as no one, quite understandably, would want to establish core trading positions ahead of the FOMC.\r\n\r\nFrom my own perspective I would not be surprised to see a rate hike, and, ahead of the announcement I will be establishing some very small long USD positions from which, I can add to or just chop. Having just written this, in addition, at the back of mind I am wondering if after the initial knee-jerk reaction to the news will we see the usual “Buy the rumour / Sell the news” event. I know that the potential rate hike gives us divergent central bank policies but so much of this must have been baked in by now and the true effect of the divergence may take a day or two to sink in and work its way through.\r\n\r\nThis move by the FED is not just EUR/USD there are commodity prices and emerging markets to consider plus I reckon the PBOC may play its “joker” within 24 hours of the FOMC.\r\n\r\nFundamentally, I know where I am and where I want to be but the unknowns have to be considered and factored in. Let me put it this way… I will not be leaping for joy with a full size long USD position immediately if the FOMC raises rates. I will not be celebrating with balloons in my office and my feet in buckets of sand under the desk drinking Pina Coladas with umbrellas until I have seen confirmation of the USD move. So I would suggest caution.\r\n\r\nThe U.S. CPi and Retail Sales data ahead of the FOMC will be key data, whether or not they provide the nail in the coffin to a move higher or are so weak as to cause a delay, you should expect greater immediate volatility around the data releases. Whether this volatility will be sustained, I don’t know, it depends on the data.\r\n\r\nRemember longevity in Forex is paramount to one’s trading success. This will only be achieved if you trade appropriate position sizes to the balance of your broker account and if you adopt a true RISK MANAGEMENT approach to the trading activity. I always have a plan and I trade my plan with my trading disciplines intact.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMY KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS THIS WEEK FOR USD MAJORS<strong>:\r\n</strong>(All of my thoughts / ideas / support / resistance levels are noted on the charts below. As always I have cleaned these charts as much as possible to try to enable the viewer to see what I am talking about, without tens of indicators clouding the screen. If you want charts with indicators galore just ask me, they are available on request).\r\n\r\nEUR/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.1338\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURUSD-DAILY-12092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6416\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURUSD-DAILY-12092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"EURUSD DAILY 12092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.5429\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GBPUSD-DAILY-12092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6415\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GBPUSD-DAILY-12092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"GBPUSD DAILY 12092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.7093\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/AUDUSD-DAILY-12092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6417\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/AUDUSD-DAILY-12092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"AUDUSD DAILY 12092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.6312\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/NZDUSD-DAILY-12092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6414\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/NZDUSD-DAILY-12092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"NZDUSD DAILY 12092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.3262\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCAD-DAILY-12092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6413\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCAD-DAILY-12092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"USDCAD DAILY 12092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF - Weekly Closing Price: 0.9694\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCHF-DAILY-12092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6412\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCHF-DAILY-12092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"USDCHF DAILY 12092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY - Weekly Closing Price: 120.57\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDJPY-DAILY-12092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6411\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDJPY-DAILY-12092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"USDJPY DAILY 12092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n1.3: LOOKING SIDEWAYS (FOR GOOD MEASURE):\r\n\r\nAlthough I have only been back in my office for about 10 days, basically re-familiarizing with the markets, reading and setting up initial trades, the currency market still looks like a scalpers paradise and at best a day trader’s marketplace. Longer term moves because of the choppiness that surrounds uncertainty is playing its part really well at keeping the swing traders pegged back to a large extent.\r\n\r\nI have highlighted potential opportunities within the USD majors for this coming week. I am however very cautious this week given that the FOMC will dominate proceedings. My feelings are that we will just mainly be range bound up until the FOMC release. My gut feeling is that as usual when there is a major news announcement all that happens is that most well traded pairs gravitate to the middle of their range in anticipation of the data release.\r\n\r\nFrom a traders perspective this week, in my opinion, whilst I can fully understand wanting to be long the USD ahead of the FOMC on Thursday, I would certainly be in the camp of, if you have trading positions open, they should be smaller. In my opinion, this is the week to pull back a little on being over exposed ahead of the FOMC.\r\n\r\nEffective RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT is the order of the day.\r\n\r\nWhether you decide to be in trades or be in $$$$ just be careful.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n	<li><strong> WHAT’S ON MY MIND:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">WILL THE FOMC DITHER\r\nOR\r\nWILL YELLEN  DELIVER THE PUNCH?</p>\r\nI went away on my summer break this year sick to the back teeth of hearing the ongoing FOMC relentless banter of; will they, won’t they, should they or shouldn’t they raise rates. Back from my break and it\'s the same debate…September, October, December, Holy Mother of God, please stop.\r\n\r\nHere are my thoughts; for seven or eight years the U.S. has basically had zero interest rates. All I hear is how good the U.S. economy is and how resilient the U.S. economy is, for all this good and resilience it can’t handle a 0.25% rate hike after eight years? Will you give me a bloody break? Either the U.S. data is as questionable as the Chinese data, or Wall Street has Janet Yellen’s arm twisted so far up her back that she cant sign the piece of paper sanctioning the rate increase.\r\n\r\nOne thing I do know is that Main Street USA needs confidence, if rates do not move they will believe that they are being fed bulls**t once again and confidence in the economy will nose dive. Main Street functions on “Ra-Ra’s”, the U.S. economy needs confidence as it is consumer driven. This consumer confidence feeds so many internal markets, housing, home improvements, retail spending, wholesale inventories etc.\r\n\r\nIf the FOMC just carries on supporting the pen pushing, desk sucking, jotter blotters from Wall Street, Yellen is in danger of being viewed as Bernanke in a skirt sucking up to and holding the hands of the few Wall Street individuals who are unable to function without the FED as a backstop.\r\n\r\nWith regards to the U.S. economy, the bravado from political commentators and analysts versus the actual economic data, which is mixed, makes for great TV but the continual mixed messages regarding the U.S. economic recovery and its strength is frankly confusing to many people. All this does is create uncertainty and affect confidence. It is quite bizarre and this continued uncertainty is bad for the markets.\r\n\r\nShould the FOMC raise rates, I think that after the dust has settled my long and well-known fundamental views on divergent monetary policy by central banks will come into play. The USD should strengthen across the board. I do however have this buy the rumour sell the news feeling. This 0.25% hike has had so much press coverage for months, but, it could be the biggest non-event ever after the dust settles.\r\n\r\nShould the FOMC delay “All bets are off” as far as I am concerned for a good few days, although unless the FED changes monetary policy, very unlikely, it just means the rate increase is more inevitable and closer moving ahead? However, a delay, in my opinion is weakness, and frankly it will create uncertainty and we will have volatility based around uncertainty, which is the worst type of volatility to have.\r\n\r\nShould a delay happen, the analysts on CNBC would be running around like headless chickens trying to be the one who makes the most outrageous timing prediction moving ahead? You can just imagine the exaggerated headlines to keep viewers hooked… “Christmas at the FED is off”… “Janet Yellen has no time to buy a turkey this year as she agonizes over rate hike” and so on. Any proposed rate increases around December will of course create additional headlines and could affect sales around Thanksgiving (November 26<sup>th</sup>), “Black Friday” and “Cyber Monday”. This is why I think the FED will raise this week.\r\n\r\nWhich is worse for the markets… being decisive or being a ditherer?\r\n\r\nIf you trade in equities, which I do not, it may be a time to invest in toilet paper / bathroom tissue etc. as the FED backstop to Wall Street is coming to an end. There will be some very confused people on Wall Street not being able to “Buy the dip” anymore. My God, chart analysis, company profiling, accurate valuations, product lines, supply and demand, management abilities, corporate strategic planning documents might all have to be taken into consideration for investment advice. It has the makings of a trading range sideways market for a while, unless the FED moves rates on a regular basis\r\n\r\nEven if the FOMC raises rates and its viewed as an error in the future, the FOMC has at least had a weapon other than QE5 or whatever number we are at, in its armory, which, is more than what it has now!\r\n\r\nThere is so much to consider for the FOMC, therefore it may be sensible to trade small if not at all until the news is out\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:\r\n</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n3.1: SUMMARY OF YEAR TO DATE PERFORMANCE - 2015:\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">PREMIUM SERVICE – COST INCOME ANALYSIS (USD):</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">EMANATING FROM TRADE SET-UPS – to September 11th 2015.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">MICRO LOT TRADER - 479 trades cost to trade = $47.90\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 479 trades = <strong>$761.90</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">MINI LOT TRADER - 479 trades cost to trade = $479.00\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 479 trades = <strong>$7,619.00</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">STANDARD LOT TRADER - 479 trades cost to trade = $4,790.00\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 479 trades = <strong>$76,190.00</strong></p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n3.2: PREMIUM SERVICE – TRADE SUMMARIES MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PS-PROFITS1-12092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6401\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PS-PROFITS1-12092015.png\" alt=\"PS PROFITS1 12092015\" width=\"462\" height=\"419\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PS-PROFITS-2-12092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6402\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PS-PROFITS-2-12092015.png\" alt=\"PS PROFITS 2 12092015\" width=\"459\" height=\"420\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNOTES:\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>If the above return from Forex Trading interests you go to my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> and check out the subscription options and special promotions under the tabs “PREMIUM SERVICE” and “PROMOTIONS”</li>\r\n	<li>The performance above is based off single-lot trade sizes.</li>\r\n	<li>THE PREMIUM SERVICE has subscribers with broker accounts of sizes ranging from $2,500 to over $100,000. A profitable trade is a profitable trade. It is all about trading according to the size of your broker account (EFFECTIVE POSITION SIZING) and applying RISK MANAGEMENT principles at all times.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n	<li><strong>PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) SUBSCRIBER CONTENT:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(The following section is additional data, thoughts, and ideas exclusively for PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) subscribers)\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.1: THE PREMIUM SERVICE – TRADING REVIEW &amp; LOOKING FORWARD:\r\n\r\nAt one point last week, I had wished that I had taken another week of vacation time. Almost every trade I had open reversed or limit orders triggered with stop loss levels that I thought to be good and secure being broken.\r\n\r\nThankfully, I have been trading long enough to expect these sort of trading days. The big issue that I had was that it affected all styles of trades and for that reason I did not look for several longer-term FUNDAMENTAL trades. I have decided to basically wait until after the FOMC.\r\n\r\nLooking back to verify my thoughts and levels on three trades, the AUD/USD, NZD/USD and USD/CAD trades. The Aussie and Loonie, I should have exited with healthy profits after NFP, I did not expect the USD gains to be given back and the Kiwi trade was “squeezy” above 0.6300 and it ran to the next resistance at 0.6400. I would not have done anything different at the times the trades were set up. The PREMIUM SERVICE booked 190 pip losses on these trades, very annoying, however, it’s done, it’s over, we move on.\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is carrying forward 4 live trades all under water. I believe that I am in these trades in the correct direction. I am holding my nerve but if required I will reduce position sizes to keep within my RISK MANAGEMENT tolerances although I am prepared to stretch these just a little at the moment given the circumstances.\r\n\r\nAs mentioned numerous times already the FOMC will dictate trading this coming week. We will, I fear, be headline news and sound byte driven as we approach this Thursday and it makes sense to be cautious given the fact the markets will not be as liquid.\r\n\r\nMy FUNDAMENTAL plan, well documented based upon divergent monetary policies between central banks is still in play as far as I am concerned until Janet Yellen says that she is changing FED monetary policy.\r\n\r\nMy focus on currency pairs to trade after the FOMC, and I am not suggesting “an all in” approach either, will be with the EUR/USD, EUR/GBP short the USD/CHF to the long side. In addition to these pairs I will be looking to establish shorts with the AUD/USD and NZD/USD and with the USD/CAD to the long side. It is not my intention to be in all these pairs straightway but it will be determined by the FED data and the details of the statement plus the “verbal’s” in the press conference that follows the announcement.\r\n\r\nI will be looking at the cross rates and I hope to be able to secure reasonable entry levels long with the GBP/NZD (already live) and maybe adding the GBP/CAD, GBP/AUD, EUR/CAD, EUR/AUD and EUR/NZD. These trades will be very attractive should we have a RISK-OFF environment.\r\n\r\nTrading with the JPY pairs will based upon the reaction of the equity markets.\r\n\r\nBasically, what I am saying is that I want to be looking across the board at most pairs, as the FED deal will have a bearing on equities, commodities in general and especially OIL. We should have a great run in towards the end of the year if Janet Yellen plays ball. Lets see, I hope that she does.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.2: MAJOR TRADING PAIRS WITH LONGER-TERM MATCHING TRENDS:\r\n\r\n(The following currency pairs have Short Term (DAILY), Medium Term (WEEKLY) and Long Term (MONTHLY) charts all trending in the same direction).\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PS-TRENDING-PAIRS-12092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6408\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PS-TRENDING-PAIRS-12092015.png\" alt=\"PS TRENDING PAIRS 12092015\" width=\"499\" height=\"623\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.3: THE PREMIUM SERVICE - LIVE TRADES ARE:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PS-LIVE-TRADES-12092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6410\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PS-LIVE-TRADES-12092015.png\" alt=\"PS LIVE TRADES 12092015\" width=\"720\" height=\"569\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.4: THE PREMIUM SERVICE – LIMIT ORDER TRADES ARE:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PS-LIMIT-ORDERS-12092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6409\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PS-LIMIT-ORDERS-12092015.png\" alt=\"PS LIMIT ORDERS 12092015\" width=\"708\" height=\"449\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.5: POTENTIAL TRADES - WHAT PAIRS / CHARTS AM I LOOKING AT?\r\n\r\nHeading into next week I am pretty comfortable with the live trades that I have in operation, maybe not the financial side of the trades but I feel that I am in the trades in the correct direction.\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is live with EUR/USD short (two trades) and long both the GBP/NZD and AUD/NZD.\r\n\r\nThe limit order trades in position are EUR/CHF, USD/CHF and USD/CAD long with the NZD/USD short.\r\n\r\nI am trying to keep and open mind on other trades; I would like to be short the AUD/USD but I feel that I must be patient and be convinced that the AUD bounce is over. I think around 0.7200 makes sense (see the chart below).\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/AUDUSD-DAILY-12092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6417\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/AUDUSD-DAILY-12092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"AUDUSD DAILY 12092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nIn addition, should the USD/CAD break through 1.3350, I would like to look at the EUR/CAD and GBP/CAD to the long side, both trades have interesting potential profit objectives (see the charts below).\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURCAD-MONTHLY-12092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6420\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURCAD-MONTHLY-12092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"EURCAD MONTHLY 12092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GBPCAD-MONTHLY-12092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6418\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GBPCAD-MONTHLY-12092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"GBPCAD MONTHLY 12092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nFinally the EUR/GBP is my favourite pair to trade. I am waiting for the FOMC first, but I am biased short on this one (chart below).\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURGBP-DAILY-12092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6419\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURGBP-DAILY-12092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"EURGBP DAILY 12092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n	<li><strong> MY FINAL THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nOVERVIEW OF TRADING TIPS &amp; THOUGHTS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD:\r\n\r\nI am repeating myself a great deal this week.\r\n\r\nIt will be a quiet week of trading up to the FOMC on Thursday, no one will want to be establishing core trade set ups and people / institutions may well be exiting trades which will cause volatility spikes when they happen. Do not get suckered into these as you can end up on the wrong side of the trade very easily.\r\n\r\nI will be taking some positions into the FOMC in addition to those held at the moment that I hope to retain through the FOMC into profit.\r\n\r\nI am currently short EUR/USD and long GBP/NZD and AUD/NZD.\r\n\r\nI am looking to add and I have limit orders in position for the USD/CHF, EUR/CHF and USD/CAD long plus the NZD/USD short. I am hoping to add one more trade ahead of the FOMC, with the others following the press conference.\r\n\r\nIt is a big week that will in my opinion set the market up for the next few months. I am really hoping that we have directional trading as a result and no more of this chop-chop daily affair that is with us at the moment.\r\n\r\nTrade smart. POSITION SIZE to your broker size and use RISK MANAGEMENT to the penny. These are two of the keys to longevity in trading.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nTake care.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nhttps://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/','WILL THE FOMC DITHER OR WILL YELLEN DELIVER THE PUNCH?','','inherit','closed','closed','','6421-revision-v1','','','2015-09-12 14:28:01','2015-09-12 19:28:01','',6421,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/6421-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(6423,1,'2015-09-12 14:30:54','2015-09-12 19:30:54','<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>THE PREMIUM SERVICE</strong>\r\n<strong>from the</strong>\r\n<strong>WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU</strong>\r\n<strong>“The Home of Single Lot Trading\"</strong></p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li><strong> THE VIEW FROM MY TRADE DESK:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nLOOKING BACKWARDS, FORWARDS &amp; SIDEWAYS (FOR GOOD MEASURE) AT THE FX MARKET:\r\n\r\n1.1: LOOKING BACKWARDS:\r\n\r\nIt’s great to be back behind my desk and in front of my screens again. It was a short holiday this summer that involved a house move so it was not stress free.\r\n\r\nThe summer doldrums feeling of watching paint dry, was replaced this year by the China slowdown finally gaining traction with the PBOC intervening in the currency markets. Finally the complacency seen in the markets that I had been talking about for months may have resonated. Unfortunately, the markets have the attention span of a four-year-old child and quickly revert to character, that is reactionary. All the talk about future pricing indicators etc. frankly I believe to be 80% bulls**t.\r\n\r\nWith regards to the PBOC intervention, the pundits on TV were quick to complain about manipulation, Holy Mother of God talk about “Pot – Kettle – Black”, the cries of currency manipulation were shouted high from the rooftops. Big fecking deal the PBOC was not the first nor will it be the last Central Bank to intervene and try to play God to protect its economy. Since the financial crash in 2008-9, we have been in a currency war with central banks basically in a race to devalue and protect economies. Many have called it a race to the bottom…that is what it is. It was highlighted amusingly by the cartoon of Ben Bernanke receiving clearance for take off in his helicopter to drop bucket loads of freshly printed $100 bills into Wall Street….\r\n\r\nTaking a different view, I would be more concerned about the fact that not one central bank governor or president on the planet has the cure for DEFLATION. It would appear that because they have no effective control of DEFLATION they focus on printing money instead. The DEFLATION headline has disappeared recently, it’s obviously not trendy anymore, but the issue is still there unresolved across most of the G7 countries.\r\n\r\nThe more recent news involving the RBNZ and BOC interests me right now. Prior to last weeks Central Bank rate decisions and statements, both Poloz (BOC) and Wheeler (RBNZ), in my opinion have spent most of the past six to nine months in denial.\r\n\r\nJust looking backwards with the BOC and RBNZ for a moment…\r\n\r\nStephen Poloz completely misread the oil situation. All his prayers to help the Alberta oil rich province fell on deaf ears and his hopes for a nice quick sustained bounce in the price of crude, disappeared as quickly as a Jack and Diet would do in front of me on a hot summers day. He surprised us with an unexpected cut in July and subsequently he has gone into jawbone mode. Canada is now in recession.\r\n\r\nGraeme Wheeler aka “wheeler the dealer”; has on the other hand, completely confused me from day one. In one press release I read that the RBNZ considered the Kiwi to be over-valued so what did he do? He raised the damn rate… Jesus Mary and Joseph he just raised rates…. good Lord. In the name of sanity how is raising rates going to help weaken his currency? (Answers on a postcard please). He has confused many times with what his policy is actually aimed at achieving. I think that in the past I have used the phrase left hand and right hand in relation to Graeme Wheeler’s thought process. In summation, I would not like to play cards against him that\'s for sure.\r\n\r\nThis past week…\r\n\r\nThe BOC kept interest rates on hold. In the statement BOC governor Stephen Poloz stated that the stimulus from the previous rate cut was working its way through the economy… yeah right!! I think if he were to come out from behind his desk, step off the lush thick pile carpet of his office, leave the indoor exotic plants to one side for a short while and gauge opinion from small businesses and the man/woman on the street he would hear something different. Personally, I can see a further rate cut happening as the lower oil price feeds in further, placing strain on the economy and confidence. In addition, food prices seem incredibly expensive at the moment, that will do wonders for inflation, however, higher prices and inflation with lower wage increases causes unrest amongst the voters.\r\n\r\nPoloz has it wrong in my opinion; most people are fearful of the economy at the moment, Canada is in recession. They are not spending savings on gas (petrol) on luxury items. To be frank, to make that statement, is in my opinion, either camels**t, cows**t or bulls**t. To believe people are going out buying expensive items in a recession on $0.20 a litre saving on gas is frankly the belief of someone detached from reality.\r\n\r\nI believe that an interest rate cut is on its way for the Canadian economy sooner rather than later. The only reason it did not happen last week was because of the upcoming general election… party political government pressure… the party in power would say that no pressure would be placed on the central bank policy… that it would just not happen…yeah right!!\r\n\r\nThe RBNZ cut interest rates by 0.25%. We saw a huge sell off in the Kiwi but it was halted (in the middle of the night for me) as the PBOC announced more easing in relation to “Yuan pooling”… thanks to the PBOC the NZD/USD spiked and stopped me out of a nice short trade…argh!!\r\n\r\nThe RBNZ in announcing its cut did not rule out more cuts in the future as it’s supportive / dovish monetary policy takes hold. This is obviously bearish for the NZD currency and with a FED rate increase on the cards this divergent central bank monetary stance makes the Kiwi a nice short opportunity against the USD.\r\n\r\nWith reference to the FED rate increase, I have my own take on that later in this blog.\r\n\r\nAdditionally during the week, the BOJ had handbags at ten paces over negative interest rates. I think that there may be a last ditch attempt by the BOJ at this weeks interest rate / policy statement to talk about more QE (Quantitative Easing), not that I think it will do much for the economy but it will float stock prices and maybe send the USD/JPY to 130.00. This may be one BOJ announcement I try to stay up for.\r\n\r\nFinally, GREECE…. the forgotten news item; it just goes to show how fickle these markets are. A few short weeks ago the sky was falling, the EUR was going to hell and back. Now the EUR is considered a safe haven currency…what!! The EUR a safe-haven give me a break. That is a whole new story but not for now. What interests me is that we could see Greece implode, not that there is much left to implode at this stage, however whatever fallout there is will affect the EUROZONE. Talk about complacency, it beggars belief at times. This will be a story that gathers more and more attention.\r\n\r\nAll of the above were market movers of one sort or another last week, probably with the exception of GREECE. The great fact about trading Forex is that there is a market everyday. You can always come back the next day to do battle (if that’s how it feels sometimes). Finding the high probability trades can be painful sometimes and a huge amount of patience is required to successfully trade Forex, but at least there are opportunities.\r\n\r\n1.2: LOOKING FORWARDS:\r\n\r\nMAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:\r\n\r\n(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market other than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to <a href=\"http://www.forexfactory.com\">www.forexfactory.com</a> and <a href=\"http://www.tradingeconomics.com\">www.tradingeconomics.com</a> for a more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).\r\nSUNDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: AUD – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: USD – Retail and Core Retail Sales.\r\nTUESDAY: NZD – Dairy Auction Prices.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – CPi and Core CPi data.\r\nWEDNESDAY: NZD – GDP.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: CHF – SNB Monetary Policy Statement.\r\nTHURSDAY: USD – FOMC Statement /FED Funds Rate &amp; Press Conference.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: CAD – Core CPi.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMY THOUGHTS ON THE NEWS ITEMS THIS COMING WEEK:\r\n\r\nWhilst there are some interesting news events this week, currency moves will be dominated by the FOMC on Thursday. We could see a lot of stunted moves this week as no one, quite understandably, would want to establish core trading positions ahead of the FOMC.\r\n\r\nFrom my own perspective I would not be surprised to see a rate hike, and, ahead of the announcement I will be establishing some very small long USD positions from which, I can add to or just chop. Having just written this, in addition, at the back of mind I am wondering if after the initial knee-jerk reaction to the news will we see the usual “Buy the rumour / Sell the news” event. I know that the potential rate hike gives us divergent central bank policies but so much of this must have been baked in by now and the true effect of the divergence may take a day or two to sink in and work its way through.\r\n\r\nThis move by the FED is not just EUR/USD there are commodity prices and emerging markets to consider plus I reckon the PBOC may play its “joker” within 24 hours of the FOMC.\r\n\r\nFundamentally, I know where I am and where I want to be but the unknowns have to be considered and factored in. Let me put it this way… I will not be leaping for joy with a full size long USD position immediately if the FOMC raises rates. I will not be celebrating with balloons in my office and my feet in buckets of sand under the desk drinking Pina Coladas with umbrellas until I have seen confirmation of the USD move. So I would suggest caution.\r\n\r\nThe U.S. CPi and Retail Sales data ahead of the FOMC will be key data, whether or not they provide the nail in the coffin to a move higher or are so weak as to cause a delay, you should expect greater immediate volatility around the data releases. Whether this volatility will be sustained, I don’t know, it depends on the data.\r\n\r\nRemember longevity in Forex is paramount to one’s trading success. This will only be achieved if you trade appropriate position sizes to the balance of your broker account and if you adopt a true RISK MANAGEMENT approach to the trading activity. I always have a plan and I trade my plan with my trading disciplines intact.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMY KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS THIS WEEK FOR USD MAJORS<strong>:\r\n</strong>(All of my thoughts / ideas / support / resistance levels are noted on the charts below. As always I have cleaned these charts as much as possible to try to enable the viewer to see what I am talking about, without tens of indicators clouding the screen. If you want charts with indicators galore just ask me, they are available on request).\r\n\r\nEUR/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.1338\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURUSD-DAILY-12092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6416\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURUSD-DAILY-12092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"EURUSD DAILY 12092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.5429\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GBPUSD-DAILY-12092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6415\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GBPUSD-DAILY-12092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"GBPUSD DAILY 12092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.7093\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/AUDUSD-DAILY-12092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6417\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/AUDUSD-DAILY-12092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"AUDUSD DAILY 12092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.6312\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/NZDUSD-DAILY-12092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6414\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/NZDUSD-DAILY-12092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"NZDUSD DAILY 12092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.3262\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCAD-DAILY-12092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6413\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCAD-DAILY-12092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"USDCAD DAILY 12092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF - Weekly Closing Price: 0.9694\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCHF-DAILY-12092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6412\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCHF-DAILY-12092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"USDCHF DAILY 12092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY - Weekly Closing Price: 120.57\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDJPY-DAILY-12092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6411\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDJPY-DAILY-12092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"USDJPY DAILY 12092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n1.3: LOOKING SIDEWAYS (FOR GOOD MEASURE):\r\n\r\nAlthough I have only been back in my office for about 10 days, basically re-familiarizing with the markets, reading and setting up initial trades, the currency market still looks like a scalpers paradise and at best a day trader’s marketplace. Longer term moves because of the choppiness that surrounds uncertainty is playing its part really well at keeping the swing traders pegged back to a large extent.\r\n\r\nI have highlighted potential opportunities within the USD majors for this coming week. I am however very cautious this week given that the FOMC will dominate proceedings. My feelings are that we will just mainly be range bound up until the FOMC release. My gut feeling is that as usual when there is a major news announcement all that happens is that most well traded pairs gravitate to the middle of their range in anticipation of the data release.\r\n\r\nFrom a traders perspective this week, in my opinion, whilst I can fully understand wanting to be long the USD ahead of the FOMC on Thursday, I would certainly be in the camp of, if you have trading positions open, they should be smaller. In my opinion, this is the week to pull back a little on being over exposed ahead of the FOMC.\r\n\r\nEffective RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT is the order of the day.\r\n\r\nWhether you decide to be in trades or be in $$$$ just be careful.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n	<li><strong> WHAT’S ON MY MIND:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">WILL THE FOMC DITHER\r\nOR\r\nWILL YELLEN  DELIVER THE PUNCH?</p>\r\nI went away on my summer break this year sick to the back teeth of hearing the ongoing FOMC relentless banter of; will they, won’t they, should they or shouldn’t they raise rates. Back from my break and it\'s the same debate…September, October, December, Holy Mother of God, please stop.\r\n\r\nHere are my thoughts; for seven or eight years the U.S. has basically had zero interest rates. All I hear is how good the U.S. economy is and how resilient the U.S. economy is, for all this good and resilience it can’t handle a 0.25% rate hike after eight years? Will you give me a bloody break? Either the U.S. data is as questionable as the Chinese data, or Wall Street has Janet Yellen’s arm twisted so far up her back that she cant sign the piece of paper sanctioning the rate increase.\r\n\r\nOne thing I do know is that Main Street USA needs confidence, if rates do not move they will believe that they are being fed bulls**t once again and confidence in the economy will nose dive. Main Street functions on “Ra-Ra’s”, the U.S. economy needs confidence as it is consumer driven. This consumer confidence feeds so many internal markets, housing, home improvements, retail spending, wholesale inventories etc.\r\n\r\nIf the FOMC just carries on supporting the pen pushing, desk sucking, jotter blotters from Wall Street, Yellen is in danger of being viewed as Bernanke in a skirt sucking up to and holding the hands of the few Wall Street individuals who are unable to function without the FED as a backstop.\r\n\r\nWith regards to the U.S. economy, the bravado from political commentators and analysts versus the actual economic data, which is mixed, makes for great TV but the continual mixed messages regarding the U.S. economic recovery and its strength is frankly confusing to many people. All this does is create uncertainty and affect confidence. It is quite bizarre and this continued uncertainty is bad for the markets.\r\n\r\nShould the FOMC raise rates, I think that after the dust has settled my long and well-known fundamental views on divergent monetary policy by central banks will come into play. The USD should strengthen across the board. I do however have this buy the rumour sell the news feeling. This 0.25% hike has had so much press coverage for months, but, it could be the biggest non-event ever after the dust settles.\r\n\r\nShould the FOMC delay “All bets are off” as far as I am concerned for a good few days, although unless the FED changes monetary policy, very unlikely, it just means the rate increase is more inevitable and closer moving ahead? However, a delay, in my opinion is weakness, and frankly it will create uncertainty and we will have volatility based around uncertainty, which is the worst type of volatility to have.\r\n\r\nShould a delay happen, the analysts on CNBC would be running around like headless chickens trying to be the one who makes the most outrageous timing prediction moving ahead? You can just imagine the exaggerated headlines to keep viewers hooked… “Christmas at the FED is off”… “Janet Yellen has no time to buy a turkey this year as she agonizes over rate hike” and so on. Any proposed rate increases around December will of course create additional headlines and could affect sales around Thanksgiving (November 26<sup>th</sup>), “Black Friday” and “Cyber Monday”. This is why I think the FED will raise this week.\r\n\r\nWhich is worse for the markets… being decisive or being a ditherer?\r\n\r\nIf you trade in equities, which I do not, it may be a time to invest in toilet paper / bathroom tissue etc. as the FED backstop to Wall Street is coming to an end. There will be some very confused people on Wall Street not being able to “Buy the dip” anymore. My God, chart analysis, company profiling, accurate valuations, product lines, supply and demand, management abilities, corporate strategic planning documents might all have to be taken into consideration for investment advice. It has the makings of a trading range sideways market for a while, unless the FED moves rates on a regular basis\r\n\r\nEven if the FOMC raises rates and its viewed as an error in the future, the FOMC has at least had a weapon other than QE5 or whatever number we are at, in its armory, which, is more than what it has now!\r\n\r\nThere is so much to consider for the FOMC, therefore it may be sensible to trade small if not at all until the news is out\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:\r\n</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n3.1: SUMMARY OF YEAR TO DATE PERFORMANCE - 2015:\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">PREMIUM SERVICE – COST INCOME ANALYSIS (USD):</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">EMANATING FROM TRADE SET-UPS – to September 11th 2015.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">MICRO LOT TRADER - 479 trades cost to trade = $47.90\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 479 trades = <strong>$761.90</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">MINI LOT TRADER - 479 trades cost to trade = $479.00\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 479 trades = <strong>$7,619.00</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">STANDARD LOT TRADER - 479 trades cost to trade = $4,790.00\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 479 trades = <strong>$76,190.00</strong></p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n3.2: PREMIUM SERVICE – TRADE SUMMARIES MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PS-PROFITS1-12092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6401\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PS-PROFITS1-12092015.png\" alt=\"PS PROFITS1 12092015\" width=\"462\" height=\"419\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PS-PROFITS-2-12092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6402\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PS-PROFITS-2-12092015.png\" alt=\"PS PROFITS 2 12092015\" width=\"459\" height=\"420\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNOTES:\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>If the above return from Forex Trading interests you go to my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> and check out the subscription options and special promotions under the tabs “PREMIUM SERVICE” and “PROMOTIONS”</li>\r\n	<li>The performance above is based off single-lot trade sizes.</li>\r\n	<li>THE PREMIUM SERVICE has subscribers with broker accounts of sizes ranging from $2,500 to over $100,000. A profitable trade is a profitable trade. It is all about trading according to the size of your broker account (EFFECTIVE POSITION SIZING) and applying RISK MANAGEMENT principles at all times.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n	<li><strong>PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) SUBSCRIBER CONTENT:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(The following section is additional data, thoughts, and ideas exclusively for PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) subscribers)\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.1: THE PREMIUM SERVICE – TRADING REVIEW &amp; LOOKING FORWARD:\r\n\r\nAt one point last week, I had wished that I had taken another week of vacation time. Almost every trade I had open reversed or limit orders triggered with stop loss levels that I thought to be good and secure being broken.\r\n\r\nThankfully, I have been trading long enough to expect these sort of trading days. The big issue that I had was that it affected all styles of trades and for that reason I did not look for several longer-term FUNDAMENTAL trades. I have decided to basically wait until after the FOMC.\r\n\r\nLooking back to verify my thoughts and levels on three trades, the AUD/USD, NZD/USD and USD/CAD trades. The Aussie and Loonie, I should have exited with healthy profits after NFP, I did not expect the USD gains to be given back and the Kiwi trade was “squeezy” above 0.6300 and it ran to the next resistance at 0.6400. I would not have done anything different at the times the trades were set up. The PREMIUM SERVICE booked 190 pip losses on these trades, very annoying, however, it’s done, it’s over, we move on.\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is carrying forward 4 live trades all under water. I believe that I am in these trades in the correct direction. I am holding my nerve but if required I will reduce position sizes to keep within my RISK MANAGEMENT tolerances although I am prepared to stretch these just a little at the moment given the circumstances.\r\n\r\nAs mentioned numerous times already the FOMC will dictate trading this coming week. We will, I fear, be headline news and sound byte driven as we approach this Thursday and it makes sense to be cautious given the fact the markets will not be as liquid.\r\n\r\nMy FUNDAMENTAL plan, well documented based upon divergent monetary policies between central banks is still in play as far as I am concerned until Janet Yellen says that she is changing FED monetary policy.\r\n\r\nMy focus on currency pairs to trade after the FOMC, and I am not suggesting “an all in” approach either, will be with the EUR/USD, EUR/GBP short the USD/CHF to the long side. In addition to these pairs I will be looking to establish shorts with the AUD/USD and NZD/USD and with the USD/CAD to the long side. It is not my intention to be in all these pairs straightway but it will be determined by the FED data and the details of the statement plus the “verbal’s” in the press conference that follows the announcement.\r\n\r\nI will be looking at the cross rates and I hope to be able to secure reasonable entry levels long with the GBP/NZD (already live) and maybe adding the GBP/CAD, GBP/AUD, EUR/CAD, EUR/AUD and EUR/NZD. These trades will be very attractive should we have a RISK-OFF environment.\r\n\r\nTrading with the JPY pairs will based upon the reaction of the equity markets.\r\n\r\nBasically, what I am saying is that I want to be looking across the board at most pairs, as the FED deal will have a bearing on equities, commodities in general and especially OIL. We should have a great run in towards the end of the year if Janet Yellen plays ball. Lets see, I hope that she does.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.2: MAJOR TRADING PAIRS WITH LONGER-TERM MATCHING TRENDS:\r\n\r\n(The following currency pairs have Short Term (DAILY), Medium Term (WEEKLY) and Long Term (MONTHLY) charts all trending in the same direction).\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PS-TRENDING-PAIRS-12092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6408\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PS-TRENDING-PAIRS-12092015.png\" alt=\"PS TRENDING PAIRS 12092015\" width=\"499\" height=\"623\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.3: THE PREMIUM SERVICE - LIVE TRADES ARE:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PS-LIVE-TRADES-12092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6410\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PS-LIVE-TRADES-12092015.png\" alt=\"PS LIVE TRADES 12092015\" width=\"720\" height=\"569\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.4: THE PREMIUM SERVICE – LIMIT ORDER TRADES ARE:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PS-LIMIT-ORDERS-12092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6409\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PS-LIMIT-ORDERS-12092015.png\" alt=\"PS LIMIT ORDERS 12092015\" width=\"708\" height=\"449\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.5: POTENTIAL TRADES - WHAT PAIRS / CHARTS AM I LOOKING AT?\r\n\r\nHeading into next week I am pretty comfortable with the live trades that I have in operation, maybe not the financial side of the trades but I feel that I am in the trades in the correct direction.\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is live with EUR/USD short (two trades) and long both the GBP/NZD and AUD/NZD.\r\n\r\nThe limit order trades in position are EUR/CHF, USD/CHF and USD/CAD long with the NZD/USD short.\r\n\r\nI am trying to keep and open mind on other trades; I would like to be short the AUD/USD but I feel that I must be patient and be convinced that the AUD bounce is over. I think around 0.7200 makes sense (see the chart below).\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/AUDUSD-DAILY-12092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6417\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/AUDUSD-DAILY-12092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"AUDUSD DAILY 12092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nIn addition, should the USD/CAD break through 1.3350, I would like to look at the EUR/CAD and GBP/CAD to the long side, both trades have interesting potential profit objectives (see the charts below).\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURCAD-MONTHLY-12092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6420\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURCAD-MONTHLY-12092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"EURCAD MONTHLY 12092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GBPCAD-MONTHLY-12092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6418\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GBPCAD-MONTHLY-12092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"GBPCAD MONTHLY 12092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nFinally the EUR/GBP is my favourite pair to trade. I am waiting for the FOMC first, but I am biased short on this one (chart below).\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURGBP-DAILY-12092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6419\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURGBP-DAILY-12092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"EURGBP DAILY 12092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n	<li><strong> MY FINAL THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nOVERVIEW OF TRADING TIPS &amp; THOUGHTS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD:\r\n\r\nI am repeating myself a great deal this week.\r\n\r\nIt will be a quiet week of trading up to the FOMC on Thursday, no one will want to be establishing core trade set ups and people / institutions may well be exiting trades which will cause volatility spikes when they happen. Do not get suckered into these as you can end up on the wrong side of the trade very easily.\r\n\r\nI will be taking some positions into the FOMC in addition to those held at the moment that I hope to retain through the FOMC into profit.\r\n\r\nI am currently short EUR/USD and long GBP/NZD and AUD/NZD.\r\n\r\nI am looking to add and I have limit orders in position for the USD/CHF, EUR/CHF and USD/CAD long plus the NZD/USD short. I am hoping to add one more trade ahead of the FOMC, with the others following the press conference.\r\n\r\nIt is a big week that will in my opinion set the market up for the next few months. I am really hoping that we have directional trading as a result and no more of this chop-chop daily affair that is with us at the moment.\r\n\r\nTrade smart. POSITION SIZE to your broker size and use RISK MANAGEMENT to the penny. These are two of the keys to longevity in trading.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nTake care.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nhttps://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/','WILL THE FOMC DITHER OR WILL YELLEN DELIVER THE PUNCH?','','inherit','closed','closed','','6421-revision-v1','','','2015-09-12 14:30:54','2015-09-12 19:30:54','',6421,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/6421-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(6432,1,'2015-09-12 15:06:14','2015-09-12 20:06:14','<h3 style=\"text-align: center;\">THE PREMIUM SERVICE\r\nfrom the\r\nWEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU\r\n“The Home of Single Lot Trading”</h3>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li><strong> THE VIEW FROM MY TRADE DESK:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nLOOKING BACKWARDS, FORWARDS &amp; SIDEWAYS (FOR GOOD MEASURE) AT THE FX MARKET:\r\n\r\n1.1: LOOKING BACKWARDS:\r\n\r\nIt’s great to be back behind my desk and in front of my screens again. It was a short holiday this summer that involved a house move so it was not stress free.\r\n\r\nThe summer doldrums feeling of watching paint dry, was replaced this year by the China slowdown finally gaining traction with the PBOC intervening in the currency markets. Finally the complacency seen in the markets that I had been talking about for months may have resonated. Unfortunately, the markets have the attention span of a four-year-old child and quickly revert to character, that is reactionary. All the talk about future pricing indicators etc. frankly I believe to be 80% bulls**t.\r\n\r\nWith regards to the PBOC intervention, the pundits on TV were quick to complain about manipulation, Holy Mother of God talk about “Pot – Kettle – Black”, the cries of currency manipulation were shouted high from the rooftops. Big fecking deal the PBOC was not the first nor will it be the last Central Bank to intervene and try to play God to protect its economy. Since the financial crash in 2008-9, we have been in a currency war with central banks basically in a race to devalue and protect economies. Many have called it a race to the bottom…that is what it is. It was highlighted amusingly by the cartoon of Ben Bernanke receiving clearance for take off in his helicopter to drop bucket loads of freshly printed $100 bills into Wall Street….\r\n\r\nTaking a different view, I would be more concerned about the fact that not one central bank governor or president on the planet has the cure for DEFLATION. It would appear that because they have no effective control of DEFLATION they focus on printing money instead. The DEFLATION headline has disappeared recently, it’s obviously not trendy anymore, but the issue is still there unresolved across most of the G7 countries.\r\n\r\nThe more recent news involving the RBNZ and BOC interests me right now. Prior to last weeks Central Bank rate decisions and statements, both Poloz (BOC) and Wheeler (RBNZ), in my opinion have spent most of the past six to nine months in denial.\r\n\r\nJust looking backwards with the BOC and RBNZ for a moment…\r\n\r\nStephen Poloz completely misread the oil situation. All his prayers to help the Alberta oil rich province fell on deaf ears and his hopes for a nice quick sustained bounce in the price of crude, disappeared as quickly as a Jack and Diet would do in front of me on a hot summers day. He surprised us with an unexpected cut in July and subsequently he has gone into jawbone mode. Canada is now in recession.\r\n\r\nGraeme Wheeler aka “wheeler the dealer”; has on the other hand, completely confused me from day one. In one press release I read that the RBNZ considered the Kiwi to be over-valued so what did he do? He raised the damn rate… Jesus Mary and Joseph he just raised rates…. good Lord. In the name of sanity how is raising rates going to help weaken his currency? (Answers on a postcard please). He has confused many times with what his policy is actually aimed at achieving. I think that in the past I have used the phrase left hand and right hand in relation to Graeme Wheeler’s thought process. In summation, I would not like to play cards against him that\'s for sure.\r\n\r\nThis past week…\r\n\r\nThe BOC kept interest rates on hold. In the statement BOC governor Stephen Poloz stated that the stimulus from the previous rate cut was working its way through the economy… yeah right!! I think if he were to come out from behind his desk, step off the lush thick pile carpet of his office, leave the indoor exotic plants to one side for a short while and gauge opinion from small businesses and the man/woman on the street he would hear something different. Personally, I can see a further rate cut happening as the lower oil price feeds in further, placing strain on the economy and confidence. In addition, food prices seem incredibly expensive at the moment, that will do wonders for inflation, however, higher prices and inflation with lower wage increases causes unrest amongst the voters.\r\n\r\nPoloz has it wrong in my opinion; most people are fearful of the economy at the moment, Canada is in recession. They are not spending savings on gas (petrol) on luxury items. To be frank, to make that statement, is in my opinion, either camels**t, cows**t or bulls**t. To believe people are going out buying expensive items in a recession on $0.20 a litre saving on gas is frankly the belief of someone detached from reality.\r\n\r\nI believe that an interest rate cut is on its way for the Canadian economy sooner rather than later. The only reason it did not happen last week was because of the upcoming general election… party political government pressure… the party in power would say that no pressure would be placed on the central bank policy… that it would just not happen…yeah right!!\r\n\r\nThe RBNZ cut interest rates by 0.25%. We saw a huge sell off in the Kiwi but it was halted (in the middle of the night for me) as the PBOC announced more easing in relation to “Yuan pooling”… thanks to the PBOC the NZD/USD spiked and stopped me out of a nice short trade…argh!!\r\n\r\nThe RBNZ in announcing its cut did not rule out more cuts in the future as it’s supportive / dovish monetary policy takes hold. This is obviously bearish for the NZD currency and with a FED rate increase on the cards this divergent central bank monetary stance makes the Kiwi a nice short opportunity against the USD.\r\n\r\nWith reference to the FED rate increase, I have my own take on that later in this blog.\r\n\r\nAdditionally during the week, the BOJ had handbags at ten paces over negative interest rates. I think that there may be a last ditch attempt by the BOJ at this weeks interest rate / policy statement to talk about more QE (Quantitative Easing), not that I think it will do much for the economy but it will float stock prices and maybe send the USD/JPY to 130.00. This may be one BOJ announcement I try to stay up for.\r\n\r\nFinally, GREECE…. the forgotten news item; it just goes to show how fickle these markets are. A few short weeks ago the sky was falling, the EUR was going to hell and back. Now the EUR is considered a safe haven currency…what!! The EUR a safe-haven give me a break. That is a whole new story but not for now. What interests me is that we could see Greece implode, not that there is much left to implode at this stage, however whatever fallout there is will affect the EUROZONE. Talk about complacency, it beggars belief at times. This will be a story that gathers more and more attention.\r\n\r\nAll of the above were market movers of one sort or another last week, probably with the exception of GREECE. The great fact about trading Forex is that there is a market everyday. You can always come back the next day to do battle (if that’s how it feels sometimes). Finding the high probability trades can be painful sometimes and a huge amount of patience is required to successfully trade Forex, but at least there are opportunities.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n1.2: LOOKING FORWARDS:\r\n\r\nMAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:\r\n\r\n(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market other than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to <a href=\"http://www.forexfactory.com\">www.forexfactory.com</a> and <a href=\"http://www.tradingeconomics.com\">www.tradingeconomics.com</a> for a more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).\r\nSUNDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: AUD – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: USD – Retail and Core Retail Sales.\r\nTUESDAY: NZD – Dairy Auction Prices.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – CPi and Core CPi data.\r\nWEDNESDAY: NZD – GDP.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: CHF – SNB Monetary Policy Statement.\r\nTHURSDAY: USD – FOMC Statement /FED Funds Rate &amp; Press Conference.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: CAD – Core CPi.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMY THOUGHTS ON THE NEWS ITEMS THIS COMING WEEK:\r\n\r\nWhilst there are some interesting news events this week, currency moves will be dominated by the FOMC on Thursday. We could see a lot of stunted moves this week as no one, quite understandably, would want to establish core trading positions ahead of the FOMC.\r\n\r\nFrom my own perspective I would not be surprised to see a rate hike, and, ahead of the announcement I will be establishing some very small long USD positions from which, I can add to or just chop. Having just written this, in addition, at the back of mind I am wondering if after the initial knee-jerk reaction to the news will we see the usual “Buy the rumour / Sell the news” event. I know that the potential rate hike gives us divergent central bank policies but so much of this must have been baked in by now and the true effect of the divergence may take a day or two to sink in and work its way through.\r\n\r\nThis move by the FED is not just EUR/USD there are commodity prices and emerging markets to consider plus I reckon the PBOC may play its “joker” within 24 hours of the FOMC.\r\n\r\nFundamentally, I know where I am and where I want to be but the unknowns have to be considered and factored in. Let me put it this way… I will not be leaping for joy with a full size long USD position immediately if the FOMC raises rates. I will not be celebrating with balloons in my office and my feet in buckets of sand under the desk drinking Pina Coladas with umbrellas until I have seen confirmation of the USD move. So I would suggest caution.\r\n\r\nThe U.S. CPi and Retail Sales data ahead of the FOMC will be key data, whether or not they provide the nail in the coffin to a move higher or are so weak as to cause a delay, you should expect greater immediate volatility around the data releases. Whether this volatility will be sustained, I don’t know, it depends on the data.\r\n\r\nRemember longevity in Forex is paramount to one’s trading success. This will only be achieved if you trade appropriate position sizes to the balance of your broker account and if you adopt a true RISK MANAGEMENT approach to the trading activity. I always have a plan and I trade my plan with my trading disciplines intact.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMY KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS THIS WEEK FOR USD MAJORS<b>:\r\n</b>(All of my thoughts / ideas / support / resistance levels are noted on the charts below. As always I have cleaned these charts as much as possible to try to enable the viewer to see what I am talking about, without tens of indicators clouding the screen. If you want charts with indicators galore just ask me, they are available on request).\r\n\r\nEUR/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.1338\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURUSD-DAILY-12092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6416\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURUSD-DAILY-12092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"EURUSD DAILY 12092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.5429\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GBPUSD-DAILY-12092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6415\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GBPUSD-DAILY-12092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"GBPUSD DAILY 12092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.7093\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/AUDUSD-DAILY-12092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6417\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/AUDUSD-DAILY-12092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"AUDUSD DAILY 12092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.6312\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/NZDUSD-DAILY-12092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6414\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/NZDUSD-DAILY-12092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"NZDUSD DAILY 12092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.3262\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCAD-DAILY-12092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6413\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCAD-DAILY-12092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"USDCAD DAILY 12092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF - Weekly Closing Price: 0.9694\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCHF-DAILY-12092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6412\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCHF-DAILY-12092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"USDCHF DAILY 12092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY - Weekly Closing Price: 120.57\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDJPY-DAILY-12092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6411\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDJPY-DAILY-12092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"USDJPY DAILY 12092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n1.3: LOOKING SIDEWAYS (FOR GOOD MEASURE):\r\n\r\nAlthough I have only been back in my office for about 10 days, basically re-familiarizing with the markets, reading and setting up initial trades, the currency market still looks like a scalpers paradise and at best a day trader’s marketplace. Longer term moves because of the choppiness that surrounds uncertainty is playing its part really well at keeping the swing traders pegged back to a large extent.\r\n\r\nI have highlighted potential opportunities within the USD majors for this coming week. I am however very cautious this week given that the FOMC will dominate proceedings. My feelings are that we will just mainly be range bound up until the FOMC release. My gut feeling is that as usual when there is a major news announcement all that happens is that most well traded pairs gravitate to the middle of their range in anticipation of the data release.\r\n\r\nFrom a traders perspective this week, in my opinion, whilst I can fully understand wanting to be long the USD ahead of the FOMC on Thursday, I would certainly be in the camp of, if you have trading positions open, they should be smaller. In my opinion, this is the week to pull back a little on being over exposed ahead of the FOMC.\r\n\r\nEffective RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT is the order of the day.\r\n\r\nWhether you decide to be in trades or be in $$$$ just be careful.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n	<li><strong> WHAT’S ON MY MIND:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>WILL THE FOMC DITHER\r\n</strong><strong>OR\r\n</strong><strong>WILL YELLEN DELIVER THE PUNCH?</strong></p>\r\nI went away on my summer break this year sick to the back teeth of hearing the ongoing FOMC relentless banter of; will they, won’t they, should they or shouldn’t they raise rates. Back from my break and it\'s the same debate…September, October, December, Holy Mother of God, please stop.\r\n\r\nHere are my thoughts; for seven or eight years the U.S. has basically had zero interest rates. All I hear is how good the U.S. economy is and how resilient the U.S. economy is, for all this good and resilience it can’t handle a 0.25% rate hike after eight years? Will you give me a bloody break? Either the U.S. data is as questionable as the Chinese data, or Wall Street has Janet Yellen’s arm twisted so far up her back that she cant sign the piece of paper sanctioning the rate increase.\r\n\r\nOne thing I do know is that Main Street USA needs confidence, if rates do not move they will believe that they are being fed bulls**t once again and confidence in the economy will nose dive. Main Street functions on “Ra-Ra’s”, the U.S. economy needs confidence as it is consumer driven. This consumer confidence feeds so many internal markets, housing, home improvements, retail spending, wholesale inventories etc.\r\n\r\nIf the FOMC just carries on supporting the pen pushing, desk sucking, jotter blotters from Wall Street, Yellen is in danger of being viewed as Bernanke in a skirt sucking up to and holding the hands of the few Wall Street individuals who are unable to function without the FED as a backstop.\r\n\r\nWith regards to the U.S. economy, the bravado from political commentators and analysts versus the actual economic data, which is mixed, makes for great TV but the continual mixed messages regarding the U.S. economic recovery and its strength is frankly confusing to many people. All this does is create uncertainty and affect confidence. It is quite bizarre and this continued uncertainty is bad for the markets.\r\n\r\nShould the FOMC raise rates, I think that after the dust has settled my long and well-known fundamental views on divergent monetary policy by central banks will come into play. The USD should strengthen across the board. I do however have this buy the rumour sell the news feeling. This 0.25% hike has had so much press coverage for months, but, it could be the biggest non-event ever after the dust settles.\r\n\r\nShould the FOMC delay “All bets are off” as far as I am concerned for a good few days, although unless the FED changes monetary policy, very unlikely, it just means the rate increase is more inevitable and closer moving ahead? However, a delay, in my opinion is weakness, and frankly it will create uncertainty and we will have volatility based around uncertainty, which is the worst type of volatility to have.\r\n\r\nShould a delay happen, the analysts on CNBC would be running around like headless chickens trying to be the one who makes the most outrageous timing prediction moving ahead? You can just imagine the exaggerated headlines to keep viewers hooked… “Christmas at the FED is off”… “Janet Yellen has no time to buy a turkey this year as she agonizes over rate hike” and so on. Any proposed rate increases around December will of course create additional headlines and could affect sales around Thanksgiving (November 26<sup>th</sup>), “Black Friday” and “Cyber Monday”. This is why I think the FED will raise this week.\r\n\r\nWhich is worse for the markets… being decisive or being a ditherer?\r\n\r\nIf you trade in equities, which I do not, it may be a time to invest in toilet paper / bathroom tissue etc. as the FED backstop to Wall Street is coming to an end. There will be some very confused people on Wall Street not being able to “Buy the dip” anymore. My God, chart analysis, company profiling, accurate valuations, product lines, supply and demand, management abilities, corporate strategic planning documents might all have to be taken into consideration for investment advice. It has the makings of a trading range sideways market for a while, unless the FED moves rates on a regular basis\r\n\r\nEven if the FOMC raises rates and its viewed as an error in the future, the FOMC has at least had a weapon other than QE5 or whatever number we are at, in its armory, which, is more than what it has now!\r\n\r\nThere is so much to consider for the FOMC, therefore it may be sensible to trade small if not at all until the news is out\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:\r\n</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n3.1: SUMMARY OF YEAR TO DATE PERFORMANCE - 2015:\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">PREMIUM SERVICE – COST INCOME ANALYSIS (USD):\r\nEMANATING FROM TRADE SET-UPS – to September 11th 2015.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">MICRO LOT TRADER - 479 trades cost to trade = $47.90\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 479 trades = <strong>$761.90</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">MINI LOT TRADER - 479 trades cost to trade = $479.00\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 479 trades = <strong>$7,619.00</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">STANDARD LOT TRADER - 479 trades cost to trade = $4,790.00\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 479 trades = <strong>$76,190.00</strong></p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n3.2: PREMIUM SERVICE – TRADE SUMMARIES MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PS-PROFITS1-12092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6401\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PS-PROFITS1-12092015.png\" alt=\"PS PROFITS1 12092015\" width=\"462\" height=\"419\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PS-PROFITS-2-12092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6402\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PS-PROFITS-2-12092015.png\" alt=\"PS PROFITS 2 12092015\" width=\"459\" height=\"420\" /></a>\r\n\r\nNOTES:\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>If the above return from Forex Trading interests you go to my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> and check out the subscription options and special promotions under the tabs “PREMIUM SERVICE” and “PROMOTIONS”</li>\r\n	<li>The performance above is based off single-lot trade sizes.</li>\r\n	<li>THE PREMIUM SERVICE has subscribers with broker accounts of sizes ranging from $2,500 to over $100,000. A profitable trade is a profitable trade. It is all about trading according to the size of your broker account (EFFECTIVE POSITION SIZING) and applying RISK MANAGEMENT principles at all times.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n	<li><strong>PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) SUBSCRIBER CONTENT:\r\n</strong>(The following section is additional data, thoughts, and ideas exclusively for PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) subscribers)</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n	<li><strong> MY FINAL THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nOVERVIEW OF TRADING TIPS &amp; THOUGHTS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD:\r\n\r\nI am repeating myself a great deal this week.\r\n\r\nIt will be a quiet week of trading up to the FOMC on Thursday, no one will want to be establishing core trade set ups and people / institutions may well be exiting trades which will cause volatility spikes when they happen. Do not get suckered into these as you can end up on the wrong side of the trade very easily.\r\n\r\nI will be taking some positions into the FOMC in addition to those held at the moment that I hope to retain through the FOMC into profit.\r\n\r\nI am currently short EUR/USD and long GBP/NZD and AUD/NZD.\r\n\r\nI am looking to add and I have limit orders in position for the USD/CHF, EUR/CHF and USD/CAD long plus the NZD/USD short. I am hoping to add one more trade ahead of the FOMC, with the others following the press conference.\r\n\r\nIt is a big week that will in my opinion set the market up for the next few months. I am really hoping that we have directional trading as a result and no more of this chop-chop daily affair that is with us at the moment.\r\n\r\nTrade smart. POSITION SIZE to your broker size and use RISK MANAGEMENT to the penny. These are two of the keys to longevity in trading.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nTake care.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\r\n</a>BLOG REF: #166','WILL THE FOMC DITHER OR WILL YELLEN DELIVER THE PUNCH?','','publish','open','closed','','will-the-fomc-dither-or-will-yellen-deliver-the-punch','','','2015-09-12 15:06:14','2015-09-12 20:06:14','',0,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?p=6432',0,'post','',0);
INSERT INTO `vp_backup_wp_posts` VALUES (6433,1,'2015-09-12 15:04:53','2015-09-12 20:04:53','<h3 style=\"text-align: center;\">THE PREMIUM SERVICE\r\nfrom the\r\nWEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU\r\n“The Home of Single Lot Trading”</h3>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li><strong> THE VIEW FROM MY TRADE DESK:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nLOOKING BACKWARDS, FORWARDS &amp; SIDEWAYS (FOR GOOD MEASURE) AT THE FX MARKET:\r\n\r\n1.1: LOOKING BACKWARDS:\r\n\r\nIt’s great to be back behind my desk and in front of my screens again. It was a short holiday this summer that involved a house move so it was not stress free.\r\n\r\nThe summer doldrums feeling of watching paint dry, was replaced this year by the China slowdown finally gaining traction with the PBOC intervening in the currency markets. Finally the complacency seen in the markets that I had been talking about for months may have resonated. Unfortunately, the markets have the attention span of a four-year-old child and quickly revert to character, that is reactionary. All the talk about future pricing indicators etc. frankly I believe to be 80% bulls**t.\r\n\r\nWith regards to the PBOC intervention, the pundits on TV were quick to complain about manipulation, Holy Mother of God talk about “Pot – Kettle – Black”, the cries of currency manipulation were shouted high from the rooftops. Big fecking deal the PBOC was not the first nor will it be the last Central Bank to intervene and try to play God to protect its economy. Since the financial crash in 2008-9, we have been in a currency war with central banks basically in a race to devalue and protect economies. Many have called it a race to the bottom…that is what it is. It was highlighted amusingly by the cartoon of Ben Bernanke receiving clearance for take off in his helicopter to drop bucket loads of freshly printed $100 bills into Wall Street….\r\n\r\nTaking a different view, I would be more concerned about the fact that not one central bank governor or president on the planet has the cure for DEFLATION. It would appear that because they have no effective control of DEFLATION they focus on printing money instead. The DEFLATION headline has disappeared recently, it’s obviously not trendy anymore, but the issue is still there unresolved across most of the G7 countries.\r\n\r\nThe more recent news involving the RBNZ and BOC interests me right now. Prior to last weeks Central Bank rate decisions and statements, both Poloz (BOC) and Wheeler (RBNZ), in my opinion have spent most of the past six to nine months in denial.\r\n\r\nJust looking backwards with the BOC and RBNZ for a moment…\r\n\r\nStephen Poloz completely misread the oil situation. All his prayers to help the Alberta oil rich province fell on deaf ears and his hopes for a nice quick sustained bounce in the price of crude, disappeared as quickly as a Jack and Diet would do in front of me on a hot summers day. He surprised us with an unexpected cut in July and subsequently he has gone into jawbone mode. Canada is now in recession.\r\n\r\nGraeme Wheeler aka “wheeler the dealer”; has on the other hand, completely confused me from day one. In one press release I read that the RBNZ considered the Kiwi to be over-valued so what did he do? He raised the damn rate… Jesus Mary and Joseph he just raised rates…. good Lord. In the name of sanity how is raising rates going to help weaken his currency? (Answers on a postcard please). He has confused many times with what his policy is actually aimed at achieving. I think that in the past I have used the phrase left hand and right hand in relation to Graeme Wheeler’s thought process. In summation, I would not like to play cards against him that\'s for sure.\r\n\r\nThis past week…\r\n\r\nThe BOC kept interest rates on hold. In the statement BOC governor Stephen Poloz stated that the stimulus from the previous rate cut was working its way through the economy… yeah right!! I think if he were to come out from behind his desk, step off the lush thick pile carpet of his office, leave the indoor exotic plants to one side for a short while and gauge opinion from small businesses and the man/woman on the street he would hear something different. Personally, I can see a further rate cut happening as the lower oil price feeds in further, placing strain on the economy and confidence. In addition, food prices seem incredibly expensive at the moment, that will do wonders for inflation, however, higher prices and inflation with lower wage increases causes unrest amongst the voters.\r\n\r\nPoloz has it wrong in my opinion; most people are fearful of the economy at the moment, Canada is in recession. They are not spending savings on gas (petrol) on luxury items. To be frank, to make that statement, is in my opinion, either camels**t, cows**t or bulls**t. To believe people are going out buying expensive items in a recession on $0.20 a litre saving on gas is frankly the belief of someone detached from reality.\r\n\r\nI believe that an interest rate cut is on its way for the Canadian economy sooner rather than later. The only reason it did not happen last week was because of the upcoming general election… party political government pressure… the party in power would say that no pressure would be placed on the central bank policy… that it would just not happen…yeah right!!\r\n\r\nThe RBNZ cut interest rates by 0.25%. We saw a huge sell off in the Kiwi but it was halted (in the middle of the night for me) as the PBOC announced more easing in relation to “Yuan pooling”… thanks to the PBOC the NZD/USD spiked and stopped me out of a nice short trade…argh!!\r\n\r\nThe RBNZ in announcing its cut did not rule out more cuts in the future as it’s supportive / dovish monetary policy takes hold. This is obviously bearish for the NZD currency and with a FED rate increase on the cards this divergent central bank monetary stance makes the Kiwi a nice short opportunity against the USD.\r\n\r\nWith reference to the FED rate increase, I have my own take on that later in this blog.\r\n\r\nAdditionally during the week, the BOJ had handbags at ten paces over negative interest rates. I think that there may be a last ditch attempt by the BOJ at this weeks interest rate / policy statement to talk about more QE (Quantitative Easing), not that I think it will do much for the economy but it will float stock prices and maybe send the USD/JPY to 130.00. This may be one BOJ announcement I try to stay up for.\r\n\r\nFinally, GREECE…. the forgotten news item; it just goes to show how fickle these markets are. A few short weeks ago the sky was falling, the EUR was going to hell and back. Now the EUR is considered a safe haven currency…what!! The EUR a safe-haven give me a break. That is a whole new story but not for now. What interests me is that we could see Greece implode, not that there is much left to implode at this stage, however whatever fallout there is will affect the EUROZONE. Talk about complacency, it beggars belief at times. This will be a story that gathers more and more attention.\r\n\r\nAll of the above were market movers of one sort or another last week, probably with the exception of GREECE. The great fact about trading Forex is that there is a market everyday. You can always come back the next day to do battle (if that’s how it feels sometimes). Finding the high probability trades can be painful sometimes and a huge amount of patience is required to successfully trade Forex, but at least there are opportunities.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n1.2: LOOKING FORWARDS:\r\n\r\nMAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:\r\n\r\n(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market other than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to <a href=\"http://www.forexfactory.com\">www.forexfactory.com</a> and <a href=\"http://www.tradingeconomics.com\">www.tradingeconomics.com</a> for a more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).\r\nSUNDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: AUD – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: USD – Retail and Core Retail Sales.\r\nTUESDAY: NZD – Dairy Auction Prices.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – CPi and Core CPi data.\r\nWEDNESDAY: NZD – GDP.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: CHF – SNB Monetary Policy Statement.\r\nTHURSDAY: USD – FOMC Statement /FED Funds Rate &amp; Press Conference.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: CAD – Core CPi.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMY THOUGHTS ON THE NEWS ITEMS THIS COMING WEEK:\r\n\r\nWhilst there are some interesting news events this week, currency moves will be dominated by the FOMC on Thursday. We could see a lot of stunted moves this week as no one, quite understandably, would want to establish core trading positions ahead of the FOMC.\r\n\r\nFrom my own perspective I would not be surprised to see a rate hike, and, ahead of the announcement I will be establishing some very small long USD positions from which, I can add to or just chop. Having just written this, in addition, at the back of mind I am wondering if after the initial knee-jerk reaction to the news will we see the usual “Buy the rumour / Sell the news” event. I know that the potential rate hike gives us divergent central bank policies but so much of this must have been baked in by now and the true effect of the divergence may take a day or two to sink in and work its way through.\r\n\r\nThis move by the FED is not just EUR/USD there are commodity prices and emerging markets to consider plus I reckon the PBOC may play its “joker” within 24 hours of the FOMC.\r\n\r\nFundamentally, I know where I am and where I want to be but the unknowns have to be considered and factored in. Let me put it this way… I will not be leaping for joy with a full size long USD position immediately if the FOMC raises rates. I will not be celebrating with balloons in my office and my feet in buckets of sand under the desk drinking Pina Coladas with umbrellas until I have seen confirmation of the USD move. So I would suggest caution.\r\n\r\nThe U.S. CPi and Retail Sales data ahead of the FOMC will be key data, whether or not they provide the nail in the coffin to a move higher or are so weak as to cause a delay, you should expect greater immediate volatility around the data releases. Whether this volatility will be sustained, I don’t know, it depends on the data.\r\n\r\nRemember longevity in Forex is paramount to one’s trading success. This will only be achieved if you trade appropriate position sizes to the balance of your broker account and if you adopt a true RISK MANAGEMENT approach to the trading activity. I always have a plan and I trade my plan with my trading disciplines intact.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMY KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS THIS WEEK FOR USD MAJORS<b>:\r\n</b>(All of my thoughts / ideas / support / resistance levels are noted on the charts below. As always I have cleaned these charts as much as possible to try to enable the viewer to see what I am talking about, without tens of indicators clouding the screen. If you want charts with indicators galore just ask me, they are available on request).\r\n\r\nEUR/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.1338\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURUSD-DAILY-12092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6416\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURUSD-DAILY-12092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"EURUSD DAILY 12092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.5429\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GBPUSD-DAILY-12092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6415\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GBPUSD-DAILY-12092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"GBPUSD DAILY 12092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.7093\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/AUDUSD-DAILY-12092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6417\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/AUDUSD-DAILY-12092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"AUDUSD DAILY 12092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.6312\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/NZDUSD-DAILY-12092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6414\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/NZDUSD-DAILY-12092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"NZDUSD DAILY 12092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.3262\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCAD-DAILY-12092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6413\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCAD-DAILY-12092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"USDCAD DAILY 12092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF - Weekly Closing Price: 0.9694\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCHF-DAILY-12092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6412\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCHF-DAILY-12092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"USDCHF DAILY 12092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY - Weekly Closing Price: 120.57\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDJPY-DAILY-12092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6411\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDJPY-DAILY-12092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"USDJPY DAILY 12092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n1.3: LOOKING SIDEWAYS (FOR GOOD MEASURE):\r\n\r\nAlthough I have only been back in my office for about 10 days, basically re-familiarizing with the markets, reading and setting up initial trades, the currency market still looks like a scalpers paradise and at best a day trader’s marketplace. Longer term moves because of the choppiness that surrounds uncertainty is playing its part really well at keeping the swing traders pegged back to a large extent.\r\n\r\nI have highlighted potential opportunities within the USD majors for this coming week. I am however very cautious this week given that the FOMC will dominate proceedings. My feelings are that we will just mainly be range bound up until the FOMC release. My gut feeling is that as usual when there is a major news announcement all that happens is that most well traded pairs gravitate to the middle of their range in anticipation of the data release.\r\n\r\nFrom a traders perspective this week, in my opinion, whilst I can fully understand wanting to be long the USD ahead of the FOMC on Thursday, I would certainly be in the camp of, if you have trading positions open, they should be smaller. In my opinion, this is the week to pull back a little on being over exposed ahead of the FOMC.\r\n\r\nEffective RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT is the order of the day.\r\n\r\nWhether you decide to be in trades or be in $$$$ just be careful.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n	<li><strong> WHAT’S ON MY MIND:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>WILL THE FOMC DITHER\r\n</strong><strong>OR\r\n</strong><strong>WILL YELLEN DELIVER THE PUNCH?</strong></p>\r\nI went away on my summer break this year sick to the back teeth of hearing the ongoing FOMC relentless banter of; will they, won’t they, should they or shouldn’t they raise rates. Back from my break and it\'s the same debate…September, October, December, Holy Mother of God, please stop.\r\n\r\nHere are my thoughts; for seven or eight years the U.S. has basically had zero interest rates. All I hear is how good the U.S. economy is and how resilient the U.S. economy is, for all this good and resilience it can’t handle a 0.25% rate hike after eight years? Will you give me a bloody break? Either the U.S. data is as questionable as the Chinese data, or Wall Street has Janet Yellen’s arm twisted so far up her back that she cant sign the piece of paper sanctioning the rate increase.\r\n\r\nOne thing I do know is that Main Street USA needs confidence, if rates do not move they will believe that they are being fed bulls**t once again and confidence in the economy will nose dive. Main Street functions on “Ra-Ra’s”, the U.S. economy needs confidence as it is consumer driven. This consumer confidence feeds so many internal markets, housing, home improvements, retail spending, wholesale inventories etc.\r\n\r\nIf the FOMC just carries on supporting the pen pushing, desk sucking, jotter blotters from Wall Street, Yellen is in danger of being viewed as Bernanke in a skirt sucking up to and holding the hands of the few Wall Street individuals who are unable to function without the FED as a backstop.\r\n\r\nWith regards to the U.S. economy, the bravado from political commentators and analysts versus the actual economic data, which is mixed, makes for great TV but the continual mixed messages regarding the U.S. economic recovery and its strength is frankly confusing to many people. All this does is create uncertainty and affect confidence. It is quite bizarre and this continued uncertainty is bad for the markets.\r\n\r\nShould the FOMC raise rates, I think that after the dust has settled my long and well-known fundamental views on divergent monetary policy by central banks will come into play. The USD should strengthen across the board. I do however have this buy the rumour sell the news feeling. This 0.25% hike has had so much press coverage for months, but, it could be the biggest non-event ever after the dust settles.\r\n\r\nShould the FOMC delay “All bets are off” as far as I am concerned for a good few days, although unless the FED changes monetary policy, very unlikely, it just means the rate increase is more inevitable and closer moving ahead? However, a delay, in my opinion is weakness, and frankly it will create uncertainty and we will have volatility based around uncertainty, which is the worst type of volatility to have.\r\n\r\nShould a delay happen, the analysts on CNBC would be running around like headless chickens trying to be the one who makes the most outrageous timing prediction moving ahead? You can just imagine the exaggerated headlines to keep viewers hooked… “Christmas at the FED is off”… “Janet Yellen has no time to buy a turkey this year as she agonizes over rate hike” and so on. Any proposed rate increases around December will of course create additional headlines and could affect sales around Thanksgiving (November 26<sup>th</sup>), “Black Friday” and “Cyber Monday”. This is why I think the FED will raise this week.\r\n\r\nWhich is worse for the markets… being decisive or being a ditherer?\r\n\r\nIf you trade in equities, which I do not, it may be a time to invest in toilet paper / bathroom tissue etc. as the FED backstop to Wall Street is coming to an end. There will be some very confused people on Wall Street not being able to “Buy the dip” anymore. My God, chart analysis, company profiling, accurate valuations, product lines, supply and demand, management abilities, corporate strategic planning documents might all have to be taken into consideration for investment advice. It has the makings of a trading range sideways market for a while, unless the FED moves rates on a regular basis\r\n\r\nEven if the FOMC raises rates and its viewed as an error in the future, the FOMC has at least had a weapon other than QE5 or whatever number we are at, in its armory, which, is more than what it has now!\r\n\r\nThere is so much to consider for the FOMC, therefore it may be sensible to trade small if not at all until the news is out\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:\r\n</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n3.1: SUMMARY OF YEAR TO DATE PERFORMANCE - 2015:\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">PREMIUM SERVICE – COST INCOME ANALYSIS (USD):\r\nEMANATING FROM TRADE SET-UPS – to September 11th 2015.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">MICRO LOT TRADER - 479 trades cost to trade = $47.90\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 479 trades = <strong>$761.90</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">MINI LOT TRADER - 479 trades cost to trade = $479.00\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 479 trades = <strong>$7,619.00</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">STANDARD LOT TRADER - 479 trades cost to trade = $4,790.00\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 479 trades = <strong>$76,190.00</strong></p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n3.2: PREMIUM SERVICE – TRADE SUMMARIES MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PS-PROFITS1-12092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6401\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PS-PROFITS1-12092015.png\" alt=\"PS PROFITS1 12092015\" width=\"462\" height=\"419\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PS-PROFITS-2-12092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6402\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PS-PROFITS-2-12092015.png\" alt=\"PS PROFITS 2 12092015\" width=\"459\" height=\"420\" /></a>\r\n\r\nNOTES:\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>If the above return from Forex Trading interests you go to my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> and check out the subscription options and special promotions under the tabs “PREMIUM SERVICE” and “PROMOTIONS”</li>\r\n	<li>The performance above is based off single-lot trade sizes.</li>\r\n	<li>THE PREMIUM SERVICE has subscribers with broker accounts of sizes ranging from $2,500 to over $100,000. A profitable trade is a profitable trade. It is all about trading according to the size of your broker account (EFFECTIVE POSITION SIZING) and applying RISK MANAGEMENT principles at all times.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n	<li><strong>PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) SUBSCRIBER CONTENT:\r\n</strong>(The following section is additional data, thoughts, and ideas exclusively for PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) subscribers)</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n	<li><strong> MY FINAL THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nOVERVIEW OF TRADING TIPS &amp; THOUGHTS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD:\r\n\r\nI am repeating myself a great deal this week.\r\n\r\nIt will be a quiet week of trading up to the FOMC on Thursday, no one will want to be establishing core trade set ups and people / institutions may well be exiting trades which will cause volatility spikes when they happen. Do not get suckered into these as you can end up on the wrong side of the trade very easily.\r\n\r\nI will be taking some positions into the FOMC in addition to those held at the moment that I hope to retain through the FOMC into profit.\r\n\r\nI am currently short EUR/USD and long GBP/NZD and AUD/NZD.\r\n\r\nI am looking to add and I have limit orders in position for the USD/CHF, EUR/CHF and USD/CAD long plus the NZD/USD short. I am hoping to add one more trade ahead of the FOMC, with the others following the press conference.\r\n\r\nIt is a big week that will in my opinion set the market up for the next few months. I am really hoping that we have directional trading as a result and no more of this chop-chop daily affair that is with us at the moment.\r\n\r\nTrade smart. POSITION SIZE to your broker size and use RISK MANAGEMENT to the penny. These are two of the keys to longevity in trading.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nTake care.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\r\n</a>BLOG REF: #166','','','inherit','closed','closed','','6432-revision-v1','','','2015-09-12 15:04:53','2015-09-12 20:04:53','',6432,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/6432-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(6434,1,'2015-09-12 15:06:14','2015-09-12 20:06:14','<h3 style=\"text-align: center;\">THE PREMIUM SERVICE\r\nfrom the\r\nWEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU\r\n“The Home of Single Lot Trading”</h3>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li><strong> THE VIEW FROM MY TRADE DESK:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nLOOKING BACKWARDS, FORWARDS &amp; SIDEWAYS (FOR GOOD MEASURE) AT THE FX MARKET:\r\n\r\n1.1: LOOKING BACKWARDS:\r\n\r\nIt’s great to be back behind my desk and in front of my screens again. It was a short holiday this summer that involved a house move so it was not stress free.\r\n\r\nThe summer doldrums feeling of watching paint dry, was replaced this year by the China slowdown finally gaining traction with the PBOC intervening in the currency markets. Finally the complacency seen in the markets that I had been talking about for months may have resonated. Unfortunately, the markets have the attention span of a four-year-old child and quickly revert to character, that is reactionary. All the talk about future pricing indicators etc. frankly I believe to be 80% bulls**t.\r\n\r\nWith regards to the PBOC intervention, the pundits on TV were quick to complain about manipulation, Holy Mother of God talk about “Pot – Kettle – Black”, the cries of currency manipulation were shouted high from the rooftops. Big fecking deal the PBOC was not the first nor will it be the last Central Bank to intervene and try to play God to protect its economy. Since the financial crash in 2008-9, we have been in a currency war with central banks basically in a race to devalue and protect economies. Many have called it a race to the bottom…that is what it is. It was highlighted amusingly by the cartoon of Ben Bernanke receiving clearance for take off in his helicopter to drop bucket loads of freshly printed $100 bills into Wall Street….\r\n\r\nTaking a different view, I would be more concerned about the fact that not one central bank governor or president on the planet has the cure for DEFLATION. It would appear that because they have no effective control of DEFLATION they focus on printing money instead. The DEFLATION headline has disappeared recently, it’s obviously not trendy anymore, but the issue is still there unresolved across most of the G7 countries.\r\n\r\nThe more recent news involving the RBNZ and BOC interests me right now. Prior to last weeks Central Bank rate decisions and statements, both Poloz (BOC) and Wheeler (RBNZ), in my opinion have spent most of the past six to nine months in denial.\r\n\r\nJust looking backwards with the BOC and RBNZ for a moment…\r\n\r\nStephen Poloz completely misread the oil situation. All his prayers to help the Alberta oil rich province fell on deaf ears and his hopes for a nice quick sustained bounce in the price of crude, disappeared as quickly as a Jack and Diet would do in front of me on a hot summers day. He surprised us with an unexpected cut in July and subsequently he has gone into jawbone mode. Canada is now in recession.\r\n\r\nGraeme Wheeler aka “wheeler the dealer”; has on the other hand, completely confused me from day one. In one press release I read that the RBNZ considered the Kiwi to be over-valued so what did he do? He raised the damn rate… Jesus Mary and Joseph he just raised rates…. good Lord. In the name of sanity how is raising rates going to help weaken his currency? (Answers on a postcard please). He has confused many times with what his policy is actually aimed at achieving. I think that in the past I have used the phrase left hand and right hand in relation to Graeme Wheeler’s thought process. In summation, I would not like to play cards against him that\'s for sure.\r\n\r\nThis past week…\r\n\r\nThe BOC kept interest rates on hold. In the statement BOC governor Stephen Poloz stated that the stimulus from the previous rate cut was working its way through the economy… yeah right!! I think if he were to come out from behind his desk, step off the lush thick pile carpet of his office, leave the indoor exotic plants to one side for a short while and gauge opinion from small businesses and the man/woman on the street he would hear something different. Personally, I can see a further rate cut happening as the lower oil price feeds in further, placing strain on the economy and confidence. In addition, food prices seem incredibly expensive at the moment, that will do wonders for inflation, however, higher prices and inflation with lower wage increases causes unrest amongst the voters.\r\n\r\nPoloz has it wrong in my opinion; most people are fearful of the economy at the moment, Canada is in recession. They are not spending savings on gas (petrol) on luxury items. To be frank, to make that statement, is in my opinion, either camels**t, cows**t or bulls**t. To believe people are going out buying expensive items in a recession on $0.20 a litre saving on gas is frankly the belief of someone detached from reality.\r\n\r\nI believe that an interest rate cut is on its way for the Canadian economy sooner rather than later. The only reason it did not happen last week was because of the upcoming general election… party political government pressure… the party in power would say that no pressure would be placed on the central bank policy… that it would just not happen…yeah right!!\r\n\r\nThe RBNZ cut interest rates by 0.25%. We saw a huge sell off in the Kiwi but it was halted (in the middle of the night for me) as the PBOC announced more easing in relation to “Yuan pooling”… thanks to the PBOC the NZD/USD spiked and stopped me out of a nice short trade…argh!!\r\n\r\nThe RBNZ in announcing its cut did not rule out more cuts in the future as it’s supportive / dovish monetary policy takes hold. This is obviously bearish for the NZD currency and with a FED rate increase on the cards this divergent central bank monetary stance makes the Kiwi a nice short opportunity against the USD.\r\n\r\nWith reference to the FED rate increase, I have my own take on that later in this blog.\r\n\r\nAdditionally during the week, the BOJ had handbags at ten paces over negative interest rates. I think that there may be a last ditch attempt by the BOJ at this weeks interest rate / policy statement to talk about more QE (Quantitative Easing), not that I think it will do much for the economy but it will float stock prices and maybe send the USD/JPY to 130.00. This may be one BOJ announcement I try to stay up for.\r\n\r\nFinally, GREECE…. the forgotten news item; it just goes to show how fickle these markets are. A few short weeks ago the sky was falling, the EUR was going to hell and back. Now the EUR is considered a safe haven currency…what!! The EUR a safe-haven give me a break. That is a whole new story but not for now. What interests me is that we could see Greece implode, not that there is much left to implode at this stage, however whatever fallout there is will affect the EUROZONE. Talk about complacency, it beggars belief at times. This will be a story that gathers more and more attention.\r\n\r\nAll of the above were market movers of one sort or another last week, probably with the exception of GREECE. The great fact about trading Forex is that there is a market everyday. You can always come back the next day to do battle (if that’s how it feels sometimes). Finding the high probability trades can be painful sometimes and a huge amount of patience is required to successfully trade Forex, but at least there are opportunities.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n1.2: LOOKING FORWARDS:\r\n\r\nMAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:\r\n\r\n(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market other than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to <a href=\"http://www.forexfactory.com\">www.forexfactory.com</a> and <a href=\"http://www.tradingeconomics.com\">www.tradingeconomics.com</a> for a more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).\r\nSUNDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: AUD – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: USD – Retail and Core Retail Sales.\r\nTUESDAY: NZD – Dairy Auction Prices.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – CPi and Core CPi data.\r\nWEDNESDAY: NZD – GDP.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: CHF – SNB Monetary Policy Statement.\r\nTHURSDAY: USD – FOMC Statement /FED Funds Rate &amp; Press Conference.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: CAD – Core CPi.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMY THOUGHTS ON THE NEWS ITEMS THIS COMING WEEK:\r\n\r\nWhilst there are some interesting news events this week, currency moves will be dominated by the FOMC on Thursday. We could see a lot of stunted moves this week as no one, quite understandably, would want to establish core trading positions ahead of the FOMC.\r\n\r\nFrom my own perspective I would not be surprised to see a rate hike, and, ahead of the announcement I will be establishing some very small long USD positions from which, I can add to or just chop. Having just written this, in addition, at the back of mind I am wondering if after the initial knee-jerk reaction to the news will we see the usual “Buy the rumour / Sell the news” event. I know that the potential rate hike gives us divergent central bank policies but so much of this must have been baked in by now and the true effect of the divergence may take a day or two to sink in and work its way through.\r\n\r\nThis move by the FED is not just EUR/USD there are commodity prices and emerging markets to consider plus I reckon the PBOC may play its “joker” within 24 hours of the FOMC.\r\n\r\nFundamentally, I know where I am and where I want to be but the unknowns have to be considered and factored in. Let me put it this way… I will not be leaping for joy with a full size long USD position immediately if the FOMC raises rates. I will not be celebrating with balloons in my office and my feet in buckets of sand under the desk drinking Pina Coladas with umbrellas until I have seen confirmation of the USD move. So I would suggest caution.\r\n\r\nThe U.S. CPi and Retail Sales data ahead of the FOMC will be key data, whether or not they provide the nail in the coffin to a move higher or are so weak as to cause a delay, you should expect greater immediate volatility around the data releases. Whether this volatility will be sustained, I don’t know, it depends on the data.\r\n\r\nRemember longevity in Forex is paramount to one’s trading success. This will only be achieved if you trade appropriate position sizes to the balance of your broker account and if you adopt a true RISK MANAGEMENT approach to the trading activity. I always have a plan and I trade my plan with my trading disciplines intact.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMY KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS THIS WEEK FOR USD MAJORS<b>:\r\n</b>(All of my thoughts / ideas / support / resistance levels are noted on the charts below. As always I have cleaned these charts as much as possible to try to enable the viewer to see what I am talking about, without tens of indicators clouding the screen. If you want charts with indicators galore just ask me, they are available on request).\r\n\r\nEUR/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.1338\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURUSD-DAILY-12092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6416\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURUSD-DAILY-12092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"EURUSD DAILY 12092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.5429\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GBPUSD-DAILY-12092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6415\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GBPUSD-DAILY-12092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"GBPUSD DAILY 12092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.7093\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/AUDUSD-DAILY-12092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6417\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/AUDUSD-DAILY-12092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"AUDUSD DAILY 12092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.6312\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/NZDUSD-DAILY-12092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6414\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/NZDUSD-DAILY-12092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"NZDUSD DAILY 12092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.3262\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCAD-DAILY-12092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6413\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCAD-DAILY-12092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"USDCAD DAILY 12092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF - Weekly Closing Price: 0.9694\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCHF-DAILY-12092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6412\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCHF-DAILY-12092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"USDCHF DAILY 12092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY - Weekly Closing Price: 120.57\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDJPY-DAILY-12092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6411\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDJPY-DAILY-12092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"USDJPY DAILY 12092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n1.3: LOOKING SIDEWAYS (FOR GOOD MEASURE):\r\n\r\nAlthough I have only been back in my office for about 10 days, basically re-familiarizing with the markets, reading and setting up initial trades, the currency market still looks like a scalpers paradise and at best a day trader’s marketplace. Longer term moves because of the choppiness that surrounds uncertainty is playing its part really well at keeping the swing traders pegged back to a large extent.\r\n\r\nI have highlighted potential opportunities within the USD majors for this coming week. I am however very cautious this week given that the FOMC will dominate proceedings. My feelings are that we will just mainly be range bound up until the FOMC release. My gut feeling is that as usual when there is a major news announcement all that happens is that most well traded pairs gravitate to the middle of their range in anticipation of the data release.\r\n\r\nFrom a traders perspective this week, in my opinion, whilst I can fully understand wanting to be long the USD ahead of the FOMC on Thursday, I would certainly be in the camp of, if you have trading positions open, they should be smaller. In my opinion, this is the week to pull back a little on being over exposed ahead of the FOMC.\r\n\r\nEffective RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT is the order of the day.\r\n\r\nWhether you decide to be in trades or be in $$$$ just be careful.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n	<li><strong> WHAT’S ON MY MIND:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>WILL THE FOMC DITHER\r\n</strong><strong>OR\r\n</strong><strong>WILL YELLEN DELIVER THE PUNCH?</strong></p>\r\nI went away on my summer break this year sick to the back teeth of hearing the ongoing FOMC relentless banter of; will they, won’t they, should they or shouldn’t they raise rates. Back from my break and it\'s the same debate…September, October, December, Holy Mother of God, please stop.\r\n\r\nHere are my thoughts; for seven or eight years the U.S. has basically had zero interest rates. All I hear is how good the U.S. economy is and how resilient the U.S. economy is, for all this good and resilience it can’t handle a 0.25% rate hike after eight years? Will you give me a bloody break? Either the U.S. data is as questionable as the Chinese data, or Wall Street has Janet Yellen’s arm twisted so far up her back that she cant sign the piece of paper sanctioning the rate increase.\r\n\r\nOne thing I do know is that Main Street USA needs confidence, if rates do not move they will believe that they are being fed bulls**t once again and confidence in the economy will nose dive. Main Street functions on “Ra-Ra’s”, the U.S. economy needs confidence as it is consumer driven. This consumer confidence feeds so many internal markets, housing, home improvements, retail spending, wholesale inventories etc.\r\n\r\nIf the FOMC just carries on supporting the pen pushing, desk sucking, jotter blotters from Wall Street, Yellen is in danger of being viewed as Bernanke in a skirt sucking up to and holding the hands of the few Wall Street individuals who are unable to function without the FED as a backstop.\r\n\r\nWith regards to the U.S. economy, the bravado from political commentators and analysts versus the actual economic data, which is mixed, makes for great TV but the continual mixed messages regarding the U.S. economic recovery and its strength is frankly confusing to many people. All this does is create uncertainty and affect confidence. It is quite bizarre and this continued uncertainty is bad for the markets.\r\n\r\nShould the FOMC raise rates, I think that after the dust has settled my long and well-known fundamental views on divergent monetary policy by central banks will come into play. The USD should strengthen across the board. I do however have this buy the rumour sell the news feeling. This 0.25% hike has had so much press coverage for months, but, it could be the biggest non-event ever after the dust settles.\r\n\r\nShould the FOMC delay “All bets are off” as far as I am concerned for a good few days, although unless the FED changes monetary policy, very unlikely, it just means the rate increase is more inevitable and closer moving ahead? However, a delay, in my opinion is weakness, and frankly it will create uncertainty and we will have volatility based around uncertainty, which is the worst type of volatility to have.\r\n\r\nShould a delay happen, the analysts on CNBC would be running around like headless chickens trying to be the one who makes the most outrageous timing prediction moving ahead? You can just imagine the exaggerated headlines to keep viewers hooked… “Christmas at the FED is off”… “Janet Yellen has no time to buy a turkey this year as she agonizes over rate hike” and so on. Any proposed rate increases around December will of course create additional headlines and could affect sales around Thanksgiving (November 26<sup>th</sup>), “Black Friday” and “Cyber Monday”. This is why I think the FED will raise this week.\r\n\r\nWhich is worse for the markets… being decisive or being a ditherer?\r\n\r\nIf you trade in equities, which I do not, it may be a time to invest in toilet paper / bathroom tissue etc. as the FED backstop to Wall Street is coming to an end. There will be some very confused people on Wall Street not being able to “Buy the dip” anymore. My God, chart analysis, company profiling, accurate valuations, product lines, supply and demand, management abilities, corporate strategic planning documents might all have to be taken into consideration for investment advice. It has the makings of a trading range sideways market for a while, unless the FED moves rates on a regular basis\r\n\r\nEven if the FOMC raises rates and its viewed as an error in the future, the FOMC has at least had a weapon other than QE5 or whatever number we are at, in its armory, which, is more than what it has now!\r\n\r\nThere is so much to consider for the FOMC, therefore it may be sensible to trade small if not at all until the news is out\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:\r\n</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n3.1: SUMMARY OF YEAR TO DATE PERFORMANCE - 2015:\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">PREMIUM SERVICE – COST INCOME ANALYSIS (USD):\r\nEMANATING FROM TRADE SET-UPS – to September 11th 2015.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">MICRO LOT TRADER - 479 trades cost to trade = $47.90\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 479 trades = <strong>$761.90</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">MINI LOT TRADER - 479 trades cost to trade = $479.00\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 479 trades = <strong>$7,619.00</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">STANDARD LOT TRADER - 479 trades cost to trade = $4,790.00\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 479 trades = <strong>$76,190.00</strong></p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n3.2: PREMIUM SERVICE – TRADE SUMMARIES MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PS-PROFITS1-12092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6401\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PS-PROFITS1-12092015.png\" alt=\"PS PROFITS1 12092015\" width=\"462\" height=\"419\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PS-PROFITS-2-12092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6402\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PS-PROFITS-2-12092015.png\" alt=\"PS PROFITS 2 12092015\" width=\"459\" height=\"420\" /></a>\r\n\r\nNOTES:\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>If the above return from Forex Trading interests you go to my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> and check out the subscription options and special promotions under the tabs “PREMIUM SERVICE” and “PROMOTIONS”</li>\r\n	<li>The performance above is based off single-lot trade sizes.</li>\r\n	<li>THE PREMIUM SERVICE has subscribers with broker accounts of sizes ranging from $2,500 to over $100,000. A profitable trade is a profitable trade. It is all about trading according to the size of your broker account (EFFECTIVE POSITION SIZING) and applying RISK MANAGEMENT principles at all times.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n	<li><strong>PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) SUBSCRIBER CONTENT:\r\n</strong>(The following section is additional data, thoughts, and ideas exclusively for PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) subscribers)</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n	<li><strong> MY FINAL THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nOVERVIEW OF TRADING TIPS &amp; THOUGHTS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD:\r\n\r\nI am repeating myself a great deal this week.\r\n\r\nIt will be a quiet week of trading up to the FOMC on Thursday, no one will want to be establishing core trade set ups and people / institutions may well be exiting trades which will cause volatility spikes when they happen. Do not get suckered into these as you can end up on the wrong side of the trade very easily.\r\n\r\nI will be taking some positions into the FOMC in addition to those held at the moment that I hope to retain through the FOMC into profit.\r\n\r\nI am currently short EUR/USD and long GBP/NZD and AUD/NZD.\r\n\r\nI am looking to add and I have limit orders in position for the USD/CHF, EUR/CHF and USD/CAD long plus the NZD/USD short. I am hoping to add one more trade ahead of the FOMC, with the others following the press conference.\r\n\r\nIt is a big week that will in my opinion set the market up for the next few months. I am really hoping that we have directional trading as a result and no more of this chop-chop daily affair that is with us at the moment.\r\n\r\nTrade smart. POSITION SIZE to your broker size and use RISK MANAGEMENT to the penny. These are two of the keys to longevity in trading.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nTake care.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\r\n</a>BLOG REF: #166','WILL THE FOMC DITHER OR WILL YELLEN DELIVER THE PUNCH?','','inherit','closed','closed','','6432-revision-v1','','','2015-09-12 15:06:14','2015-09-12 20:06:14','',6432,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/6432-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(6469,1,'2015-09-20 05:49:25','2015-09-20 10:49:25','<h3 style=\"text-align: center;\">THE PREMIUM SERVICE\r\nfrom the\r\nWEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU\r\n“The Home of Single Lot Trading”</h3>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li><strong> THE VIEW FROM MY TRADE DESK:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nLOOKING BACKWARDS, FORWARDS &amp; SIDEWAYS (FOR GOOD MEASURE) AT THE FX MARKET:\r\n\r\n1.1: LOOKING BACKWARDS:\r\n\r\nWell the FOMC didn’t move on rates. Have they missed the moment? I think possibly?\r\n\r\nMonday through Wednesday was very calm. The last 48 hours of the week were really busy. Thursday running up to the announcement, I was at my desk early for the SNB non-event and then I spent time exiting profitable USD related trades and managing my way out of negative USD related trades in readiness for the FED announcement.\r\n\r\nThen it was just a roller-coaster ride…..\r\n\r\nI know that there was other news last week, but it’s all just gone blank. The Fed decision dominated my thoughts running up to the announcement and it looks like it has blanked my memory as well. I think that my mind is a blank because I just could not believe what I was hearing, and my thought process was in confused mode. If I were a computer I would have pressed CTRL-ALT-DELETE and re-booted. I think that this is what caused my memory loss from earlier in the week. It wasn’t due to alcohol abuse at all, my wife was sun bathing in the garden and never came into the office with a “Jack and Diet” or a “Glass of Pinot”, which she often does on FED days.\r\n\r\nI have written my own views on the so-called “Historic Day”. This is in section 2, later in this blog.\r\n\r\nApart from the SNB non-event and the FOMC, the only other news that resonates with me, were the sound-bytes out of the BOE. Some MPC members were on the Reuters news wires talking about loosening rather than tightening monetary policy. Very interesting.\r\n\r\nAs a FUNDAMENTAL trader this is a development upon which, I need to seek further clarification over the coming days.\r\n\r\nI get the feeling that there are some very anxious fund managers and institutional investors dotted around the four corners of the world who will be very tentatively pouring out their cornflakes over the weekend reading the newspapers etc. This will be a developing story and one I will sink my teeth into in my own style moving forward.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n1.2: LOOKING FORWARDS:\r\n\r\nMAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:\r\n\r\n(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market other than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to <a href=\"http://www.forexfactory.com\">www.forexfactory.com</a> and <a href=\"http://www.tradingeconomics.com\">www.tradingeconomics.com</a> for a more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).\r\nSUNDAY: EUR - Greece Parliamentary Election.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: CAD – BOC Stephen Poloz…speaks.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: CNY – Flash Manufacturing PMi.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: EUR – French &amp; German Flash Manufacturing PMi.\r\nWEDNESDAY: CAD – Core Retail Sales.\r\nWEDNESDAY: EUR - ECB Mario Draghi… speaks.\r\nWEDNESDAY: NZD – Trade Balance.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: USD – Janet Yellen… speaks.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: USD - GDP.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMY THOUGHTS ON THE NEWS ITEMS THIS COMING WEEK:\r\n\r\nI find it incredible. A few months ago the news of a Greek election would have pretty much dominated the headlines. Well, here we are with an election happening today, (Sunday 20<sup>th</sup> September 2015) and, its not making any headlines at all.\r\n\r\nThe Syriza and New Democracy (ND) parties are running neck and neck. Alexis Tsipras’s popularity as Prime Minister has plummeted from over 60% to around 30%. I believe that had one of the more radical parties, like the “Golden Dawn” the Greek nationalist party or the Greek Communist Party (KKE) been able to draw more than 5% in the polls we may have seen some news about Greece on the TV and on the news wires.\r\n\r\nThere are quite a few parties standing and the outcome looks likely to be a hung parliament. The big question will be of course, can Antonis Samaras, leader of the New Democracy or Tsipras’s, radical left coalition work together in a government collation? Personally, I doubt it. Then the question is, can a workable majority be formed by coalitions with the smaller parties, probably not enough seats to enable a workable majority, given the many factions that co-exist within the political parties inside Greece.\r\n\r\nWill a minority government work? I doubt that as well. Therefore, it looks to me that as Greece may not return a majority government…. uncertainty rules.\r\n\r\nFrom a trading perspective, this could set up some nice EUR trades.\r\n\r\nWe also have some central banker talk this week. In the following order we have comments due from, Stephen Poloz from the BOC, Mario Draghi from the ECB and the “ditherer” from the FED.\r\n\r\nGoing sideways for a paragraph or three…\r\n\r\nThese people are now perceived by the media and the markets and by some of them themselves as “Rock Stars”. They certainly have the power to control and influence; we have seen this increase since the financial crisis of 2008-2009.It won’t be too long before their status and power is taken to the next level.\r\n\r\nCould you imagine the following music being played for each central bank president or governor as they walk into the monetary policy meeting with dry ice machines in full operation? : -\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>Graeme Wheeler (RBNZ) – I Can’t Explain by The Who.</li>\r\n	<li>Mario Draghi (ECB) – I Have The Touch by Peter Gabriel.</li>\r\n	<li>Mark Carney (BOE) – Queen Bitch by David Bowie.</li>\r\n	<li>Stephen Poloz (BOC) – Dazed and Confused by Led Zeppelin.</li>\r\n	<li>Janet Yellen (FED) – She’s So Cold by The Rolling Stones.</li>\r\n	<li>Glen Stevens (RBA) – Cigarettes and Alcohol by Oasis.</li>\r\n	<li>Thomas Jordan (SNB) – Breaking All The Rules by Peter Frampton.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nIt would certainly bring more theatre to the monetary policy statement meetings and take the focus away from the colour of the tie being worn.\r\n\r\nGetting back on track…\r\n\r\nFollowing the FOMC no rate hike, I think that anything that is said now by central bank governors will be dissected word by word in as much detail as if it were one of those biology lessons you had as a child in school, taking a frog apart.\r\n\r\nI think we as traders should be on our guard and ready for fireworks if policy is to be discussed or questions answered at any of these events.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMY KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS THIS WEEK FOR USD MAJORS<strong>:</strong>\r\n\r\n(All of my thoughts / ideas / support / resistance levels are noted on the charts below. As always I have cleaned these charts as much as possible to try to enable the viewer to see what I am talking about, without tens of indicators clouding the screen. If you want charts with indicators galore just ask me, they are available on request).\r\n\r\nEUR/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.1301\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURUSD-DAILY-19092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6459\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURUSD-DAILY-19092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"EURUSD DAILY 19092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.5532\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GBPUSD-DAILY-19092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6458\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GBPUSD-DAILY-19092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"GBPUSD DAILY 19092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.7191\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/AUDUSD-DAILY-19092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6460\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/AUDUSD-DAILY-19092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"AUDUSD DAILY 19092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.6412\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/NZDUSD-DAILY-19092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6468\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/NZDUSD-DAILY-19092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"NZDUSD DAILY 19092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.3224\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCAD-DAILY-19092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6457\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCAD-DAILY-19092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"USDCAD DAILY 19092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF - Weekly Closing Price: 0.9689\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCHF-DAILY-19092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6456\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCHF-DAILY-19092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"USDCHF DAILY 19092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY - Weekly Closing Price: 120.00\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDJPY-DAILY-19092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6455\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDJPY-DAILY-19092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"USDJPY DAILY 19092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n1.3: LOOKING SIDEWAYS (FOR GOOD MEASURE):\r\n\r\nThis week, I want to give an example of two trades I took on Friday morning last week.\r\n\r\nThere were some crazy moves in the last 27 hours of the week’s trading hours. I hope that most of my subscribers took heed of the warnings and traded a little smaller position sizes to avoid being caught on the wrong side of trades, which, lets face facts given the moves you could have been. Equity traders probably took a greater beating than Forex traders this time.\r\n\r\nThere certainly were some spectacular moves.\r\n\r\nThe major pair that I want to focus on (I am going to ignore cross-rates etc) is the USD/CAD.\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>Thursday after Janet Yellen announced that rates were not moving it dropped like a lead balloon from 1.3196 to 1.3070 (126 pips).</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>Then it bounced back from 1.3070 to 1.3188 (118 pips). Pretty much a full and complete recovery.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>Overnight Thursday into Friday it hardly moved until the European session. It then fell from 1.3180 to 1.3017 just after CPi data at 0830AM EDT (163 pips).</li>\r\n	<li>After CPi data it then rallied from 1.3017 to 1.3228 (211 pips).</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThese were phenomenal moves and quite frankly, impossible to predict, what a 27 hours, and considering for about 8/9 hours of the 27 hours it went sideways in a 20-pip range, quite staggering.\r\n\r\nIn the background on Friday prior to CAD CPi being released OIL was dropping in price and so was the USD/CAD, the correlation in pricing broken. Then later on in the day as oil was still falling the USD/CAD resumed it’s correlation and the CAD$ weakened at quite a pace playing catch-up.\r\n\r\nFor Forex Traders to be successful and seek longevity in trading we carve out high probability trades from chart patterns in conjunction with a macro level view of the FUNDAMENTAL economic data. In conjunction with this we have lead indicators that guide us and give us an edge to our trades.\r\n\r\nMy lead indicators are: -\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li style=\"text-align: left;\">OIL</li>\r\n	<li style=\"text-align: left;\">GOLD</li>\r\n	<li style=\"text-align: left;\">COPPER</li>\r\n	<li style=\"text-align: left;\">USD/CAD</li>\r\n	<li>AUD/USD</li>\r\n	<li>AUD/JPY</li>\r\n	<li style=\"text-align: left;\">USD/SEK</li>\r\n	<li>(Currencies also in conjunction with my ) FX PRESSURE CHARTS</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nMy daily routine is to look at these and using multi screens these are my “EDGE” to my selection of trades. They provide me with directional trends and probabilities based on inter-market correlations (I wrote several articles in the autumn/fall of 2013 / spring 2014 about how correlations do matter in Forex Trading).\r\n\r\nI am not saying that I have the “Holy Grail” of Forex Trading, but I am saying that this works for me. In conjunction with my TRADING PLAN, everyone needs a plan, if you don\'t have a plan, as far as I am concerned you would be trading like a headless chicken.\r\n\r\nOn Friday morning, Oil was falling…. so was the USD/CAD. My pressure charts were so RED regarding trading this pair, there was so much money buying CAD$ it would have been crazy to step in and take a trade USD/CAD long.\r\n\r\nAs soon as the CAD CPi data came through, which was in line with expectations, the pair which by this stage was so oversold and below 8/9-trend line support it was prime for bounce. As soon as buyers of the USD appeared, oil was still falling and my charts went a little green I entered long in two different broker accounts. From divergent RSI (Relative Strength Indicators) the oversold conditions were so extreme buyers were leaping in.\r\n\r\nThis was a high probability trade based off severe over-selling; breaking a long established trend line. The selling was so extreme it was bound to overshoot. On two trades I entered before the pair bottomed, and my goal was 20-30 pip trades, as I expected no more than that. The pair rallied 211 pips from the lows to highs; I missed about 150 pips of the move.\r\n\r\nJust for the record, oil dropped 4.7% on the day and closed at $44.68 a barrel. I am still in the camp that Supply and Demand works (My old Economics lecturers “Woodsie and Tossa” would be proud, if they are still alive?), oil has sub $40.00 written all over it.\r\n\r\nBack to the trade…\r\n\r\nDid I do well?\r\n\r\nI am not looking for a pat on the back.\r\n\r\nI watched the pair move lower.\r\n\r\nI checked my correlations / lead indicators / pressure charts / identified on my charts key support levels whether they be horizontal support areas or Fibonacci levels.\r\n\r\nI looked at the next level lower to establish my RISK.\r\n\r\nI created what I call my “ACTIVE ZONE” (This is where if I feel the trade is right I will establish my trade).\r\n\r\nI established my target / limit zones.\r\n\r\nThese were FLASH TRADES (as I call them) anything between 10 and 50 pips but mostly I like 20-30 pip objectives.\r\n\r\nWhen the oil price darted lower, the entry-level indicators on my pressure charts were green for go and I went long at two different places in two different broker accounts.\r\n\r\nYes, looking back I could have taken 50% off my position size when the trade reached my target area then moved my stop to breakeven and let the trade run. At the time the volatility was so great, and my plan had been set long before the trade commenced I knew what I was going to do and I did it.\r\n\r\nAs I stated earlier I am not looking for a pat on the back. Not all trades no matter how well thought out run as planned/hoped. But you need to have the mindset to seek out high probability trades so that the numbers of successful trades outweigh the loss making ones.\r\n\r\nMy point with this example of a trade that was undertaken is that Forex trading has to be thought out, even under high pressure, which, Friday morning definitely was.\r\n\r\nAs long as you can identify high probability trades and set in place via your TRADING PLAN your routine required, the critical success factors that must be met to make the trade happen… then… you stand a chance of succeeding with longevity as long as you apply RISK MANAGEMENT to your POSITION SIZING.\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>I identified the USD/CAD long as a high probability trade to look at.</li>\r\n	<li>My RISK/REWARD was established before the trade.</li>\r\n	<li>My entry/exits were zoned on my charts before I entered.</li>\r\n	<li>I was checking all my lead indicators all the time on my screens to give me the green for go.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThe routine is the same for my FUNDAMENTAL or RADAR trades. The major difference is that they are not as time pressured with eyes tracking 6 screens. They are pre-meditated trades.\r\n\r\nForex trading is a business. It is you versus the world. Every EDGE you have gets you a notch closer to having more profitable trades than losing ones. To be disciplined at all times is the key to success in my opinion.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n	<li><strong> WHAT’S ON MY MIND:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">This week’s main blog title is…</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">JANET YELLEN DITHERS, MOVES GOAL POSTS\r\n&amp;\r\nCREATES MORE MARKET UNCERTAINTY</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Last week’s main blog article title was….</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">WILL THE FOMC DITHER\r\nOR\r\nWILL YELLEN DELIVER THE PUNCH?</p>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nWhat can I say?\r\n\r\nI am originally from Liverpool. I could write for hours this week. To keep this short and focused with what is running through my brain will be difficult…. but I will try.\r\n\r\nI have listened to and read so many comments, both financial and political about the FOMC announcement last Thursday that my brain hurts.\r\n\r\nFor the love of God, this is dithering…this is moving the goal posts because the FOMC is sh*t scarred of making an error.\r\n\r\nTo blame the emerging markets and/or China for the FED not raising rates, is in my opinion utter boll**cks. All of the American commentators and analysts were in full voice shouting at the TV stating that the FED has to consider the world position and is now the banker for the world, because world global economies are so under-performing…. blah, blah fecking blah.\r\n\r\nThe FED has a mandate on inflation, interest rates and employment.\r\n\r\nIt never considered any other country when Ben Bernanke flooded the U.S. economy with cash and went on a bond-buying spree dropping wedges of $100 bills into New York and Chicago.\r\n\r\nSure there are global risks, for God’s sake there always are.\r\n\r\nNow as I read it, the FED mandate also includes managing “Asset Prices” because that is essentially what Janet Yellen has indicated through her very/extremely dovish stance.\r\n\r\nShe talks a lot about inflation and the FED target rate of 2%. She wants to see inflation approaching this level. Well excuse me for saying, but there isn’t a central banker on the planet right now or any ex. Central bank governor or president alive who knows how to increase the inflation levels within an economy.\r\n\r\nIf this is going to be a stumbling block we will never see rates rise at all for years. ZIRP is the new normal.\r\n\r\nAll this forward guidance counted for nothing. It’s OK when moving lower with rates, all the cuddles are handed out to all areas of the market… we love you guys, we will accommodate the markets we will support you. Providing forward guidance when trying to raise rates is virtually, if not, completely impossible as the FED cannot state on what date interest rates will increase and by how much. Goals and objectives were set out but now these are fudged and the goal posts moved.\r\n\r\nThe FOMC played Wall Street. However, Main Street must be thinking, Holy Mother of God, 7 years of zero interest rates and the FED can’t even put 0.25% on the board. How unstable and fragile is our economy? Can it still be this bad after 7 years, not even 0.25%? Consumer confidence numbers will be interesting to gauge moving forward.\r\n\r\nThis is dithering. Janet Yellen knows she can’t influence inflation. This is a red herring.\r\n\r\nShe has created the very thing she says she wants to rid the markets of…UNCERTAINTY.\r\n\r\nThe markets initial response was reversed and then reversed again and then reversed once more… thank God the FED wants stability!!\r\n\r\nFor once, I actually believed that the markets had all but priced in this rate rise. The world reaction was surprise. Even the BOE had MPC members quoting loosening rather than tightening last Friday. Talk about an about turn.\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, Yellen has created great uncertainty and by introducing a host of outside factors in the melting pot, the decision on rates increasing this year is not 100% certain.\r\n\r\nWhat does this do for longer-term trading plans?\r\n\r\nWell my thoughts and my plan are on hold for now. I need to gather more information and more data and see the markets reaction to this non-move.\r\n\r\nI could only imagine what Mario Draghi felt like at 3.15PM EDT last Thursday with the EUR/USD at 1.1450. I would say not comfortable.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:\r\n</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n3.1: SUMMARY OF YEAR TO DATE PERFORMANCE - 2015:\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">PREMIUM SERVICE – COST INCOME ANALYSIS (USD):</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">EMANATING FROM TRADE SET-UPS – to September 18th 2015.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">MICRO LOT TRADER - 489 trades cost to trade = $48.90\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 489 trades = <strong>$803.30</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">MINI LOT TRADER - 489 trades cost to trade = $489.00\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 489 trades = <strong>$8,033.00</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">STANDARD LOT TRADER - 489 trades cost to trade = $4,890.00\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 489 trades = <strong>$80,330.00</strong></p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n3.2: PREMIUM SERVICE – TRADE SUMMARIES MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PREM-SERV-PROFITS1-19092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6450\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PREM-SERV-PROFITS1-19092015.png\" alt=\"PREM SERV PROFITS1 19092015\" width=\"462\" height=\"417\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PREM-SERV-PROFITS2-19092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6451\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PREM-SERV-PROFITS2-19092015.png\" alt=\"PREM SERV PROFITS2 19092015\" width=\"471\" height=\"411\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNOTES:\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>If the above return from Forex Trading interests you go to my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> and check out the subscription options and special promotions under the tabs “PREMIUM SERVICE” and “PROMOTIONS”</li>\r\n	<li>The performance above is based off single-lot trade sizes.</li>\r\n	<li>THE PREMIUM SERVICE has subscribers with broker accounts of sizes ranging from $2,500 to over $100,000. A profitable trade is a profitable trade. It is all about trading according to the size of your broker account (EFFECTIVE POSITION SIZING) and applying RISK MANAGEMENT principles at all times.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) SUBSCRIBER CONTENT:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(The following section is additional data, thoughts, and ideas exclusively for PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) subscribers)\r\n\r\n4.1: THE PREMIUM SERVICE – TRADING REVIEW &amp; LOOKING FORWARD:\r\n\r\nI held back on trade volume this past week in view of the FOMC announcement.\r\n\r\nTrades that were undertaken were mainly FLASH TRADES and from a trading perspective this had to be expected.\r\n\r\nOn the positive front, the PREMIUM SERVICE account for September went positive overall, which is a good motivational view to have. RADAR TRADES are however negative for the month so far.\r\n\r\nI have a lot of part-time subscribers who only trade RADAR and FUNDAMENTAL trades. This month you are basically at break even if you trade my suggestions 100%. The PREMIUM SERVICE is running basically 66% / 33% profitable versus loss making trades this month so far.\r\n\r\nOver this weekend, I am carrying four negative trades forward. Despite being under water, I am comfortable with all four trades, in regards to their direction and position size. The risk from my perspective is manageable.\r\n\r\nLooking forward, Yellen certainly has thrown things up in the air and I need to gather more information and gauge the market reaction before committing to longer-term trades. I have a SKYPE meeting with my peer group tomorrow (Monday 21<sup>st</sup>) and I will see where they’re thoughts are and add them to my own.\r\n\r\nThere will be opportunities; I have no doubt about that at all. Later in this section I have looked at cross rate charts as these will offer good pip potentials if “RISK OFF” really comes back with a bang.\r\n\r\nI have a few ideas in mind and I hope to get these to you during the European session Monday.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.2: MAJOR TRADING PAIRS WITH LONGER-TERM MATCHING TRENDS:\r\n\r\n(The following currency pairs have Short Term (DAILY), Medium Term (WEEKLY) and Long Term (MONTHLY) charts all trending in the same direction).\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/TRENDING-19092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6452\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/TRENDING-19092015.png\" alt=\"TRENDING 19092015\" width=\"506\" height=\"635\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.3: THE PREMIUM SERVICE - LIVE TRADES ARE:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/LIVE-TRADES-19092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6453\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/LIVE-TRADES-19092015.png\" alt=\"LIVE TRADES 19092015\" width=\"723\" height=\"566\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.4: THE PREMIUM SERVICE – LIMIT ORDER TRADES ARE:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/RADAR-TRADES-19092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6454\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/RADAR-TRADES-19092015.png\" alt=\"RADAR TRADES 19092015\" width=\"715\" height=\"446\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.5: POTENTIAL TRADES - WHAT PAIRS / CHARTS AM I LOOKING AT?\r\n\r\nI have added all the cross rate pairs here with the EUR/GBP as well. My comments and thoughts are on the charts below.\r\n\r\nMost of the cross rates are heading towards interesting Fibonacci levels. In a normal market I would be looking to pick up long at these levels, as you will see from the charts. However, it is NOT normal at the moment and caution needs to be applied.\r\n\r\nIn addition to the EUR/GBP, I am also looking at USD/CAD and USD/CHF longs again on pullbacks. I will probably have something on paper regarding these into the European open or just before the US open on Monday.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURAUD-DAILY-19092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6467\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURAUD-DAILY-19092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"EURAUD DAILY 19092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURCAD-MONTHLY-19092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6466\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURCAD-MONTHLY-19092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"EURCAD MONTHLY 19092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURGBP-DAILY-19092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6465\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURGBP-DAILY-19092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"EURGBP DAILY 19092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURNZD-DAILY-19092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6464\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURNZD-DAILY-19092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"EURNZD DAILY 19092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GBPAUD-DAILY-19092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6463\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GBPAUD-DAILY-19092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"GBPAUD DAILY 19092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GBPCAD-MONTHLY-19092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6462\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GBPCAD-MONTHLY-19092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"GBPCAD MONTHLY 19092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GBPNZD-DAILY-19092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6461\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GBPNZD-DAILY-19092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"GBPNZD DAILY 19092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n	<li><strong> MY FINAL THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nOVERVIEW OF TRADING TIPS &amp; THOUGHTS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD:\r\n\r\nWe have to trade smart this week and allow the dust to settle.\r\n\r\nMany of the big institutional investors were either squared off ahead of the FOMC or not 100% back at their trade desks following the summer break, knowing that this FOMC meeting was so important they did not want to establish prior positions.\r\n\r\nWe need to allow these movers back into the market and then plan.\r\n\r\nWithout doubt the smart money was in cash ahead of the FOMC decision and this cash being re-introduced will affect how the markets move forward together with central bank reaction around the globe. We have Poloz and Draghi scheduled this week and based upon the fact BOE MPC members were chomping at the bit to speak last Friday do not be surprised to hear Mark Carney utter a few sentences.\r\n\r\nWe are in news driven, central banker environment right now so we need to trade cleverly, whether you are a scalper, medium term swing or longer-term position trader.\r\n\r\nWatch oil; it is a fundamental to basically every markets move and inter-market correlations. Breaking below $40.00 will be a huge event this week, even if it is expected. The question will be where does it stop? It is a pure speculators market and I have no doubt a few will have deep enough pockets to try and pick a bottom, but, would you stand in front of falling oil prices? I know I would not.\r\n\r\nOil is not just about the CAD, NOK and MXN it is about the USD as well. Watch its movements. It is a great lead indicator…. most of the time!!\r\n\r\nTake care.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nhttps://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/','JANET YELLEN DITHERS, MOVES GOAL POSTS  &  CREATES MORE MARKET UNCERTAINTY','','publish','open','closed','','janet-yellen-dithers-moves-goal-posts-creates-more-market-uncertainty','','','2015-09-20 05:49:25','2015-09-20 10:49:25','',0,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?post_type=member_posts&#038;p=6469',0,'member_posts','',0),(6470,1,'2015-09-20 05:47:01','2015-09-20 10:47:01','<h3 style=\"text-align: center;\">THE PREMIUM SERVICE\r\nfrom the\r\nWEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU\r\n“The Home of Single Lot Trading”</h3>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li><strong> THE VIEW FROM MY TRADE DESK:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nLOOKING BACKWARDS, FORWARDS &amp; SIDEWAYS (FOR GOOD MEASURE) AT THE FX MARKET:\r\n\r\n1.1: LOOKING BACKWARDS:\r\n\r\nWell the FOMC didn’t move on rates. Have they missed the moment? I think possibly?\r\n\r\nMonday through Wednesday was very calm. The last 48 hours of the week were really busy. Thursday running up to the announcement, I was at my desk early for the SNB non-event and then I spent time exiting profitable USD related trades and managing my way out of negative USD related trades in readiness for the FED announcement.\r\n\r\nThen it was just a roller-coaster ride…..\r\n\r\nI know that there was other news last week, but it’s all just gone blank. The Fed decision dominated my thoughts running up to the announcement and it looks like it has blanked my memory as well. I think that my mind is a blank because I just could not believe what I was hearing, and my thought process was in confused mode. If I were a computer I would have pressed CTRL-ALT-DELETE and re-booted. I think that this is what caused my memory loss from earlier in the week. It wasn’t due to alcohol abuse at all, my wife was sun bathing in the garden and never came into the office with a “Jack and Diet” or a “Glass of Pinot”, which she often does on FED days.\r\n\r\nI have written my own views on the so-called “Historic Day”. This is in section 2, later in this blog.\r\n\r\nApart from the SNB non-event and the FOMC, the only other news that resonates with me, were the sound-bytes out of the BOE. Some MPC members were on the Reuters news wires talking about loosening rather than tightening monetary policy. Very interesting.\r\n\r\nAs a FUNDAMENTAL trader this is a development upon which, I need to seek further clarification over the coming days.\r\n\r\nI get the feeling that there are some very anxious fund managers and institutional investors dotted around the four corners of the world who will be very tentatively pouring out their cornflakes over the weekend reading the newspapers etc. This will be a developing story and one I will sink my teeth into in my own style moving forward.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n1.2: LOOKING FORWARDS:\r\n\r\nMAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:\r\n\r\n(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market other than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to <a href=\"http://www.forexfactory.com\">www.forexfactory.com</a> and <a href=\"http://www.tradingeconomics.com\">www.tradingeconomics.com</a> for a more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).\r\nSUNDAY: EUR - Greece Parliamentary Election.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: CAD – BOC Stephen Poloz…speaks.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: CNY – Flash Manufacturing PMi.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: EUR – French &amp; German Flash Manufacturing PMi.\r\nWEDNESDAY: CAD – Core Retail Sales.\r\nWEDNESDAY: EUR - ECB Mario Draghi… speaks.\r\nWEDNESDAY: NZD – Trade Balance.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: USD – Janet Yellen… speaks.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: USD - GDP.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMY THOUGHTS ON THE NEWS ITEMS THIS COMING WEEK:\r\n\r\nI find it incredible. A few months ago the news of a Greek election would have pretty much dominated the headlines. Well, here we are with an election happening today, (Sunday 20<sup>th</sup> September 2015) and, its not making any headlines at all.\r\n\r\nThe Syriza and New Democracy (ND) parties are running neck and neck. Alexis Tsipras’s popularity as Prime Minister has plummeted from over 60% to around 30%. I believe that had one of the more radical parties, like the “Golden Dawn” the Greek nationalist party or the Greek Communist Party (KKE) been able to draw more than 5% in the polls we may have seen some news about Greece on the TV and on the news wires.\r\n\r\nThere are quite a few parties standing and the outcome looks likely to be a hung parliament. The big question will be of course, can Antonis Samaras, leader of the New Democracy or Tsipras’s, radical left coalition work together in a government collation? Personally, I doubt it. Then the question is, can a workable majority be formed by coalitions with the smaller parties, probably not enough seats to enable a workable majority, given the many factions that co-exist within the political parties inside Greece.\r\n\r\nWill a minority government work? I doubt that as well. Therefore, it looks to me that as Greece may not return a majority government…. uncertainty rules.\r\n\r\nFrom a trading perspective, this could set up some nice EUR trades.\r\n\r\nWe also have some central banker talk this week. In the following order we have comments due from, Stephen Poloz from the BOC, Mario Draghi from the ECB and the “ditherer” from the FED.\r\n\r\nGoing sideways for a paragraph or three…\r\n\r\nThese people are now perceived by the media and the markets and by some of them themselves as “Rock Stars”. They certainly have the power to control and influence; we have seen this increase since the financial crisis of 2008-2009.It won’t be too long before their status and power is taken to the next level.\r\n\r\nCould you imagine the following music being played for each central bank president or governor as they walk into the monetary policy meeting with dry ice machines in full operation? : -\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>Graeme Wheeler (RBNZ) – I Can’t Explain by The Who.</li>\r\n	<li>Mario Draghi (ECB) – I Have The Touch by Peter Gabriel.</li>\r\n	<li>Mark Carney (BOE) – Queen Bitch by David Bowie.</li>\r\n	<li>Stephen Poloz (BOC) – Dazed and Confused by Led Zeppelin.</li>\r\n	<li>Janet Yellen (FED) – She’s So Cold by The Rolling Stones.</li>\r\n	<li>Glen Stevens (RBA) – Cigarettes and Alcohol by Oasis.</li>\r\n	<li>Thomas Jordan (SNB) – Breaking All The Rules by Peter Frampton.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nIt would certainly bring more theatre to the monetary policy statement meetings and take the focus away from the colour of the tie being worn.\r\n\r\nGetting back on track…\r\n\r\nFollowing the FOMC no rate hike, I think that anything that is said now by central bank governors will be dissected word by word in as much detail as if it were one of those biology lessons you had as a child in school, taking a frog apart.\r\n\r\nI think we as traders should be on our guard and ready for fireworks if policy is to be discussed or questions answered at any of these events.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMY KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS THIS WEEK FOR USD MAJORS<strong>:</strong>\r\n\r\n(All of my thoughts / ideas / support / resistance levels are noted on the charts below. As always I have cleaned these charts as much as possible to try to enable the viewer to see what I am talking about, without tens of indicators clouding the screen. If you want charts with indicators galore just ask me, they are available on request).\r\n\r\nEUR/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.1301\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURUSD-DAILY-19092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6459\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURUSD-DAILY-19092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"EURUSD DAILY 19092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.5532\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GBPUSD-DAILY-19092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6458\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GBPUSD-DAILY-19092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"GBPUSD DAILY 19092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.7191\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/AUDUSD-DAILY-19092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6460\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/AUDUSD-DAILY-19092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"AUDUSD DAILY 19092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.6412\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/NZDUSD-DAILY-19092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6468\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/NZDUSD-DAILY-19092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"NZDUSD DAILY 19092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.3224\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCAD-DAILY-19092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6457\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCAD-DAILY-19092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"USDCAD DAILY 19092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF - Weekly Closing Price: 0.9689\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCHF-DAILY-19092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6456\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCHF-DAILY-19092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"USDCHF DAILY 19092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY - Weekly Closing Price: 120.00\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDJPY-DAILY-19092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6455\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDJPY-DAILY-19092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"USDJPY DAILY  19092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n1.3: LOOKING SIDEWAYS (FOR GOOD MEASURE):\r\n\r\nThis week, I want to give an example of two trades I took on Friday morning last week.\r\n\r\nThere were some crazy moves in the last 27 hours of the week’s trading hours. I hope that most of my subscribers took heed of the warnings and traded a little smaller position sizes to avoid being caught on the wrong side of trades, which, lets face facts given the moves you could have been. Equity traders probably took a greater beating than Forex traders this time.\r\n\r\nThere certainly were some spectacular moves.\r\n\r\nThe major pair that I want to focus on (I am going to ignore cross-rates etc) is the USD/CAD.\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>Thursday after Janet Yellen announced that rates were not moving it dropped like a lead balloon from 1.3196 to 1.3070 (126 pips).</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>Then it bounced back from 1.3070 to 1.3188 (118 pips). Pretty much a full and complete recovery.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>Overnight Thursday into Friday it hardly moved until the European session. It then fell from 1.3180 to 1.3017 just after CPi data at 0830AM EDT (163 pips).</li>\r\n	<li>After CPi data it then rallied from 1.3017 to 1.3228 (211 pips).</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThese were phenomenal moves and quite frankly, impossible to predict, what a 27 hours, and considering for about 8/9 hours of the 27 hours it went sideways in a 20-pip range, quite staggering.\r\n\r\nIn the background on Friday prior to CAD CPi being released OIL was dropping in price and so was the USD/CAD, the correlation in pricing broken. Then later on in the day as oil was still falling the USD/CAD resumed it’s correlation and the CAD$ weakened at quite a pace playing catch-up.\r\n\r\nFor Forex Traders to be successful and seek longevity in trading we carve out high probability trades from chart patterns in conjunction with a macro level view of the FUNDAMENTAL economic data. In conjunction with this we have lead indicators that guide us and give us an edge to our trades.\r\n\r\nMy lead indicators are: -\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li style=\"text-align: left;\">OIL</li>\r\n	<li style=\"text-align: left;\">GOLD</li>\r\n	<li style=\"text-align: left;\">COPPER</li>\r\n	<li style=\"text-align: left;\">USD/CAD</li>\r\n	<li>AUD/USD</li>\r\n	<li>AUD/JPY</li>\r\n	<li style=\"text-align: left;\">USD/SEK</li>\r\n	<li>(Currencies also in conjunction with my ) FX PRESSURE CHARTS</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nMy daily routine is to look at these and using multi screens these are my “EDGE” to my selection of trades. They provide me with directional trends and probabilities based on inter-market correlations (I wrote several articles in the autumn/fall of 2013 / spring 2014 about how correlations do matter in Forex Trading).\r\n\r\nI am not saying that I have the “Holy Grail” of Forex Trading, but I am saying that this works for me. In conjunction with my TRADING PLAN, everyone needs a plan, if you don\'t have a plan, as far as I am concerned you would be trading like a headless chicken.\r\n\r\nOn Friday morning, Oil was falling…. so was the USD/CAD. My pressure charts were so RED regarding trading this pair, there was so much money buying CAD$ it would have been crazy to step in and take a trade USD/CAD long.\r\n\r\nAs soon as the CAD CPi data came through, which was in line with expectations, the pair which by this stage was so oversold and below 8/9-trend line support it was prime for bounce. As soon as buyers of the USD appeared, oil was still falling and my charts went a little green I entered long in two different broker accounts. From divergent RSI (Relative Strength Indicators) the oversold conditions were so extreme buyers were leaping in.\r\n\r\nThis was a high probability trade based off severe over-selling; breaking a long established trend line. The selling was so extreme it was bound to overshoot. On two trades I entered before the pair bottomed, and my goal was 20-30 pip trades, as I expected no more than that. The pair rallied 211 pips from the lows to highs; I missed about 150 pips of the move.\r\n\r\nJust for the record, oil dropped 4.7% on the day and closed at $44.68 a barrel. I am still in the camp that Supply and Demand works (My old Economics lecturers “Woodsie and Tossa” would be proud, if they are still alive?), oil has sub $40.00 written all over it.\r\n\r\nBack to the trade…\r\n\r\nDid I do well?\r\n\r\nI am not looking for a pat on the back.\r\n\r\nI watched the pair move lower.\r\n\r\nI checked my correlations / lead indicators / pressure charts / identified on my charts key support levels whether they be horizontal support areas or Fibonacci levels.\r\n\r\nI looked at the next level lower to establish my RISK.\r\n\r\nI created what I call my “ACTIVE ZONE” (This is where if I feel the trade is right I will establish my trade).\r\n\r\nI established my target / limit zones.\r\n\r\nThese were FLASH TRADES (as I call them) anything between 10 and 50 pips but mostly I like 20-30 pip objectives.\r\n\r\nWhen the oil price darted lower, the entry-level indicators on my pressure charts were green for go and I went long at two different places in two different broker accounts.\r\n\r\nYes, looking back I could have taken 50% off my position size when the trade reached my target area then moved my stop to breakeven and let the trade run. At the time the volatility was so great, and my plan had been set long before the trade commenced I knew what I was going to do and I did it.\r\n\r\nAs I stated earlier I am not looking for a pat on the back. Not all trades no matter how well thought out run as planned/hoped. But you need to have the mindset to seek out high probability trades so that the numbers of successful trades outweigh the loss making ones.\r\n\r\nMy point with this example of a trade that was undertaken is that Forex trading has to be thought out, even under high pressure, which, Friday morning definitely was.\r\n\r\nAs long as you can identify high probability trades and set in place via your TRADING PLAN your routine required, the critical success factors that must be met to make the trade happen… then… you stand a chance of succeeding with longevity as long as you apply RISK MANGEMENT to your POSITION SIZING.\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>I identified the USD/CAD long as a high probability trade to look at.</li>\r\n	<li>My RISK/REWARD was established before the trade.</li>\r\n	<li>My entry/exits were zoned on my charts before I entered.</li>\r\n	<li>I was checking all my lead indicators all the time on my screens to give me the green for go.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThe routine is the same for my FUNDAMENTAL or RADAR trades. The major difference is that they are not as time pressured with eyes tracking 6 screens. They are pre-meditated trades.\r\n\r\nForex trading is a business. It is you versus the world. Every EDGE you have gets you a notch closer to having more profitable trades than losing ones. To be disciplined at all times is the key to success in my opinion.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n	<li><strong> WHAT’S ON MY MIND:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">This week’s main blog title is…</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">JANET YELLEN DITHERS, MOVES GOAL POSTS\r\n&amp;\r\nCREATES MORE MARKET UNCERTAINTY</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Last week’s main blog article title was….</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">WILL THE FOMC DITHER\r\nOR\r\nWILL YELLEN DELIVER THE PUNCH?</p>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nWhat can I say?\r\n\r\nI am originally from Liverpool. I could write for hours this week. To keep this short and focused with what is running through my brain will be difficult…. but I will try.\r\n\r\nI have listened to and read so many comments, both financial and political about the FOMC announcement last Thursday that my brain hurts.\r\n\r\nFor the love of God, this is dithering…this is moving the goal posts because the FOMC is sh*t scarred of making an error.\r\n\r\nTo blame the emerging markets and/or China for the FED not raising rates, is in my opinion utter boll**cks. All of the American commentators and analysts were in full voice shouting at the TV stating that the FED has to consider the world position and is now the banker for the world, because world global economies are so under-performing…. blah, blah fecking blah.\r\n\r\nThe FED has a mandate on inflation, interest rates and employment.\r\n\r\nIt never considered any other country when Ben Bernanke flooded the U.S. economy with cash and went on a bond-buying spree dropping wedges of $100 bills into New York and Chicago.\r\n\r\nSure there are global risks, for God’s sake there always are.\r\n\r\nNow as I read it, the FED mandate also includes managing “Asset Prices” because that is essentially what Janet Yellen has indicated through her very/extremely dovish stance.\r\n\r\nShe talks a lot about inflation and the FED target rate of 2%. She wants to see inflation approaching this level. Well excuse me for saying, but there isn’t a central banker on the planet right now or any ex. Central bank governor or president alive who knows how to increase the inflation levels within an economy.\r\n\r\nIf this is going to be a stumbling block we will never see rates rise at all for years. ZIRP is the new normal.\r\n\r\nAll this forward guidance counted for nothing. It’s OK when moving lower with rates, all the cuddles are handed out to all areas of the market… we love you guys, we will accommodate the markets we will support you. Providing forward guidance when trying to raise rates is virtually, if not, completely impossible as the FED cannot state on what date interest rates will increase and by how much. Goals and objectives were set out but now these are fudged and the goal posts moved.\r\n\r\nThe FOMC played Wall Street. However, Main Street must be thinking, Holy Mother of God, 7 years of zero interest rates and the FED can’t even put 0.25% on the board. How unstable and fragile is our economy? Can it still be this bad after 7 years, not even 0.25%? Consumer confidence numbers will be interesting to gauge moving forward.\r\n\r\nThis is dithering. Janet Yellen knows she can’t influence inflation. This is a red herring.\r\n\r\nShe has created the very thing she says she wants to rid the markets of…UNCERTAINTY.\r\n\r\nThe markets initial response was reversed and then reversed again and then reversed once more… thank God the FED wants stability!!\r\n\r\nFor once, I actually believed that the markets had all but priced in this rate rise. The world reaction was surprise. Even the BOE had MPC members quoting loosening rather than tightening last Friday. Talk about an about turn.\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, Yellen has created great uncertainty and by introducing a host of outside factors in the melting pot, the decision on rates increasing this year is not 100% certain.\r\n\r\nWhat does this do for longer-term trading plans?\r\n\r\nWell my thoughts and my plan are on hold for now. I need to gather more information and more data and see the markets reaction to this non-move.\r\n\r\nI could only imagine what Mario Draghi felt like at 3.15PM EDT last Thursday with the EUR/USD at 1.1450. I would say not comfortable.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:\r\n</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n3.1: SUMMARY OF YEAR TO DATE PERFORMANCE - 2015:\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">PREMIUM SERVICE – COST INCOME ANALYSIS (USD):</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">EMANATING FROM TRADE SET-UPS – to September 18th 2015.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">MICRO LOT TRADER - 489 trades cost to trade = $48.90\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 489 trades = <strong>$803.30</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">MINI LOT TRADER - 489 trades cost to trade = $489.00\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 489 trades = <strong>$8,033.00</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">STANDARD LOT TRADER - 489 trades cost to trade = $4,890.00\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 489 trades = <strong>$80,330.00</strong></p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n3.2: PREMIUM SERVICE – TRADE SUMMARIES MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PREM-SERV-PROFITS1-19092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6450\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PREM-SERV-PROFITS1-19092015.png\" alt=\"PREM SERV PROFITS1 19092015\" width=\"462\" height=\"417\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PREM-SERV-PROFITS2-19092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6451\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PREM-SERV-PROFITS2-19092015.png\" alt=\"PREM SERV PROFITS2 19092015\" width=\"471\" height=\"411\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNOTES:\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>If the above return from Forex Trading interests you go to my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> and check out the subscription options and special promotions under the tabs “PREMIUM SERVICE” and “PROMOTIONS”</li>\r\n	<li>The performance above is based off single-lot trade sizes.</li>\r\n	<li>THE PREMIUM SERVICE has subscribers with broker accounts of sizes ranging from $2,500 to over $100,000. A profitable trade is a profitable trade. It is all about trading according to the size of your broker account (EFFECTIVE POSITION SIZING) and applying RISK MANAGEMENT principles at all times.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) SUBSCRIBER CONTENT:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(The following section is additional data, thoughts, and ideas exclusively for PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) subscribers)\r\n\r\n4.1: THE PREMIUM SERVICE – TRADING REVIEW &amp; LOOKING FORWARD:\r\n\r\nI held back on trade volume this past week in view of the FOMC announcement.\r\n\r\nTrades that were undertaken were mainly FLASH TRADES and from a trading perspective this had to be expected.\r\n\r\nOn the positive front, the PREMIUM SERVICE account for September went positive overall, which is a good motivational view to have. RADAR TRADES are however negative for the month so far.\r\n\r\nI have a lot of part-time subscribers who only trade RADAR and FUNDAMENTAL trades. This month you are basically at break even if you trade my suggestions 100%. The PREMIUM SERVICE is running basically 66% / 33% profitable versus loss making trades this month so far.\r\n\r\nOver this weekend, I am carrying four negative trades forward. Despite being under water, I am comfortable with all four trades, in regards to their direction and position size. The risk from my perspective is manageable.\r\n\r\nLooking forward, Yellen certainly has thrown things up in the air and I need to gather more information and gauge the market reaction before committing to longer-term trades. I have a SKYPE meeting with my peer group tomorrow (Monday 21<sup>st</sup>) and I will see where they’re thoughts are and add them to my own.\r\n\r\nThere will be opportunities; I have no doubt about that at all. Later in this section I have looked at cross rate charts as these will offer good pip potentials if “RISK OFF” really comes back with a bang.\r\n\r\nI have a few ideas in mind and I hope to get these to you during the European session Monday.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.2: MAJOR TRADING PAIRS WITH LONGER-TERM MATCHING TRENDS:\r\n\r\n(The following currency pairs have Short Term (DAILY), Medium Term (WEEKLY) and Long Term (MONTHLY) charts all trending in the same direction).\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/TRENDING-19092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6452\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/TRENDING-19092015.png\" alt=\"TRENDING 19092015\" width=\"506\" height=\"635\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.3: THE PREMIUM SERVICE - LIVE TRADES ARE:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/LIVE-TRADES-19092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6453\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/LIVE-TRADES-19092015.png\" alt=\"LIVE TRADES 19092015\" width=\"723\" height=\"566\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.4: THE PREMIUM SERVICE – LIMIT ORDER TRADES ARE:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/RADAR-TRADES-19092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6454\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/RADAR-TRADES-19092015.png\" alt=\"RADAR TRADES 19092015\" width=\"715\" height=\"446\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.5: POTENTIAL TRADES - WHAT PAIRS / CHARTS AM I LOOKING AT?\r\n\r\nI have added all the cross rate pairs here with the EUR/GBP as well. My comments and thoughts are on the charts below.\r\n\r\nMost of the cross rates are heading towards interesting Fibonacci levels. In a normal market I would be looking to pick up long at these levels, as you will see from the charts. However, it is NOT normal at the moment and caution needs to be applied.\r\n\r\nIn addition to the EUR/GBP, I am also looking at USD/CAD and USD/CHF longs again on pullbacks. I will probably have something on paper regarding these into the European open or just before the US open on Monday.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURAUD-DAILY-19092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6467\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURAUD-DAILY-19092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"EURAUD DAILY 19092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURCAD-MONTHLY-19092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6466\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURCAD-MONTHLY-19092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"EURCAD MONTHLY 19092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURGBP-DAILY-19092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6465\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURGBP-DAILY-19092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"EURGBP DAILY 19092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURNZD-DAILY-19092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6464\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURNZD-DAILY-19092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"EURNZD DAILY 19092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GBPAUD-DAILY-19092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6463\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GBPAUD-DAILY-19092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"GBPAUD DAILY 19092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GBPCAD-MONTHLY-19092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6462\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GBPCAD-MONTHLY-19092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"GBPCAD MONTHLY 19092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GBPNZD-DAILY-19092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6461\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GBPNZD-DAILY-19092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"GBPNZD DAILY 19092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n	<li><strong> MY FINAL THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nOVERVIEW OF TRADING TIPS &amp; THOUGHTS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD:\r\n\r\nWe have to trade smart this week and allow the dust to settle.\r\n\r\nMany of the big institutional investors were either squared off ahead of the FOMC or not 100% back at their trade desks following the summer break, knowing that this FOMC meeting was so important they did not want to establish prior positions.\r\n\r\nWe need to allow these movers back into the market and then plan.\r\n\r\nWithout doubt the smart money was in cash ahead of the FOMC decision and this cash being re-introduced will affect how the markets move forward together with central bank reaction around the globe. We have Poloz and Draghi scheduled this week and based upon the fact BOE MPC members were chomping at the bit to speak last Friday do not be surprised to hear Mark Carney utter a few sentences.\r\n\r\nWe are in news driven, central banker environment right now so we need to trade cleverly, whether you are a scalper, medium term swing or longer-term position trader.\r\n\r\nWatch oil; it is a fundamental to basically every markets move and inter-market correlations. Breaking below $40.00 will be a huge event this week, even if it is expected. The question will be where does it stop? It is a pure speculators market and I have no doubt a few will have deep enough pockets to try and pick a bottom, but, would you stand in front of falling oil prices? I know I would not.\r\n\r\nOil is not just about the CAD, NOK and MXN it is about the USD as well. Watch its movements. It is a great lead indicator…. most of the time!!\r\n\r\nTake care.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nhttps://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/','JANET YELLEN DITHERS, MOVES GOAL POSTS  &  CREATES MORE MARKET UNCERTAINTY','','inherit','closed','closed','','6469-revision-v1','','','2015-09-20 05:47:01','2015-09-20 10:47:01','',6469,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/6469-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(6471,1,'2015-09-20 05:49:25','2015-09-20 10:49:25','<h3 style=\"text-align: center;\">THE PREMIUM SERVICE\r\nfrom the\r\nWEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU\r\n“The Home of Single Lot Trading”</h3>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li><strong> THE VIEW FROM MY TRADE DESK:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nLOOKING BACKWARDS, FORWARDS &amp; SIDEWAYS (FOR GOOD MEASURE) AT THE FX MARKET:\r\n\r\n1.1: LOOKING BACKWARDS:\r\n\r\nWell the FOMC didn’t move on rates. Have they missed the moment? I think possibly?\r\n\r\nMonday through Wednesday was very calm. The last 48 hours of the week were really busy. Thursday running up to the announcement, I was at my desk early for the SNB non-event and then I spent time exiting profitable USD related trades and managing my way out of negative USD related trades in readiness for the FED announcement.\r\n\r\nThen it was just a roller-coaster ride…..\r\n\r\nI know that there was other news last week, but it’s all just gone blank. The Fed decision dominated my thoughts running up to the announcement and it looks like it has blanked my memory as well. I think that my mind is a blank because I just could not believe what I was hearing, and my thought process was in confused mode. If I were a computer I would have pressed CTRL-ALT-DELETE and re-booted. I think that this is what caused my memory loss from earlier in the week. It wasn’t due to alcohol abuse at all, my wife was sun bathing in the garden and never came into the office with a “Jack and Diet” or a “Glass of Pinot”, which she often does on FED days.\r\n\r\nI have written my own views on the so-called “Historic Day”. This is in section 2, later in this blog.\r\n\r\nApart from the SNB non-event and the FOMC, the only other news that resonates with me, were the sound-bytes out of the BOE. Some MPC members were on the Reuters news wires talking about loosening rather than tightening monetary policy. Very interesting.\r\n\r\nAs a FUNDAMENTAL trader this is a development upon which, I need to seek further clarification over the coming days.\r\n\r\nI get the feeling that there are some very anxious fund managers and institutional investors dotted around the four corners of the world who will be very tentatively pouring out their cornflakes over the weekend reading the newspapers etc. This will be a developing story and one I will sink my teeth into in my own style moving forward.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n1.2: LOOKING FORWARDS:\r\n\r\nMAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:\r\n\r\n(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market other than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to <a href=\"http://www.forexfactory.com\">www.forexfactory.com</a> and <a href=\"http://www.tradingeconomics.com\">www.tradingeconomics.com</a> for a more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).\r\nSUNDAY: EUR - Greece Parliamentary Election.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: CAD – BOC Stephen Poloz…speaks.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: CNY – Flash Manufacturing PMi.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: EUR – French &amp; German Flash Manufacturing PMi.\r\nWEDNESDAY: CAD – Core Retail Sales.\r\nWEDNESDAY: EUR - ECB Mario Draghi… speaks.\r\nWEDNESDAY: NZD – Trade Balance.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: USD – Janet Yellen… speaks.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: USD - GDP.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMY THOUGHTS ON THE NEWS ITEMS THIS COMING WEEK:\r\n\r\nI find it incredible. A few months ago the news of a Greek election would have pretty much dominated the headlines. Well, here we are with an election happening today, (Sunday 20<sup>th</sup> September 2015) and, its not making any headlines at all.\r\n\r\nThe Syriza and New Democracy (ND) parties are running neck and neck. Alexis Tsipras’s popularity as Prime Minister has plummeted from over 60% to around 30%. I believe that had one of the more radical parties, like the “Golden Dawn” the Greek nationalist party or the Greek Communist Party (KKE) been able to draw more than 5% in the polls we may have seen some news about Greece on the TV and on the news wires.\r\n\r\nThere are quite a few parties standing and the outcome looks likely to be a hung parliament. The big question will be of course, can Antonis Samaras, leader of the New Democracy or Tsipras’s, radical left coalition work together in a government collation? Personally, I doubt it. Then the question is, can a workable majority be formed by coalitions with the smaller parties, probably not enough seats to enable a workable majority, given the many factions that co-exist within the political parties inside Greece.\r\n\r\nWill a minority government work? I doubt that as well. Therefore, it looks to me that as Greece may not return a majority government…. uncertainty rules.\r\n\r\nFrom a trading perspective, this could set up some nice EUR trades.\r\n\r\nWe also have some central banker talk this week. In the following order we have comments due from, Stephen Poloz from the BOC, Mario Draghi from the ECB and the “ditherer” from the FED.\r\n\r\nGoing sideways for a paragraph or three…\r\n\r\nThese people are now perceived by the media and the markets and by some of them themselves as “Rock Stars”. They certainly have the power to control and influence; we have seen this increase since the financial crisis of 2008-2009.It won’t be too long before their status and power is taken to the next level.\r\n\r\nCould you imagine the following music being played for each central bank president or governor as they walk into the monetary policy meeting with dry ice machines in full operation? : -\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>Graeme Wheeler (RBNZ) – I Can’t Explain by The Who.</li>\r\n	<li>Mario Draghi (ECB) – I Have The Touch by Peter Gabriel.</li>\r\n	<li>Mark Carney (BOE) – Queen Bitch by David Bowie.</li>\r\n	<li>Stephen Poloz (BOC) – Dazed and Confused by Led Zeppelin.</li>\r\n	<li>Janet Yellen (FED) – She’s So Cold by The Rolling Stones.</li>\r\n	<li>Glen Stevens (RBA) – Cigarettes and Alcohol by Oasis.</li>\r\n	<li>Thomas Jordan (SNB) – Breaking All The Rules by Peter Frampton.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nIt would certainly bring more theatre to the monetary policy statement meetings and take the focus away from the colour of the tie being worn.\r\n\r\nGetting back on track…\r\n\r\nFollowing the FOMC no rate hike, I think that anything that is said now by central bank governors will be dissected word by word in as much detail as if it were one of those biology lessons you had as a child in school, taking a frog apart.\r\n\r\nI think we as traders should be on our guard and ready for fireworks if policy is to be discussed or questions answered at any of these events.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMY KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS THIS WEEK FOR USD MAJORS<strong>:</strong>\r\n\r\n(All of my thoughts / ideas / support / resistance levels are noted on the charts below. As always I have cleaned these charts as much as possible to try to enable the viewer to see what I am talking about, without tens of indicators clouding the screen. If you want charts with indicators galore just ask me, they are available on request).\r\n\r\nEUR/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.1301\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURUSD-DAILY-19092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6459\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURUSD-DAILY-19092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"EURUSD DAILY 19092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.5532\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GBPUSD-DAILY-19092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6458\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GBPUSD-DAILY-19092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"GBPUSD DAILY 19092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.7191\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/AUDUSD-DAILY-19092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6460\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/AUDUSD-DAILY-19092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"AUDUSD DAILY 19092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.6412\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/NZDUSD-DAILY-19092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6468\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/NZDUSD-DAILY-19092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"NZDUSD DAILY 19092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.3224\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCAD-DAILY-19092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6457\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCAD-DAILY-19092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"USDCAD DAILY 19092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF - Weekly Closing Price: 0.9689\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCHF-DAILY-19092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6456\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCHF-DAILY-19092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"USDCHF DAILY 19092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY - Weekly Closing Price: 120.00\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDJPY-DAILY-19092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6455\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDJPY-DAILY-19092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"USDJPY DAILY 19092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n1.3: LOOKING SIDEWAYS (FOR GOOD MEASURE):\r\n\r\nThis week, I want to give an example of two trades I took on Friday morning last week.\r\n\r\nThere were some crazy moves in the last 27 hours of the week’s trading hours. I hope that most of my subscribers took heed of the warnings and traded a little smaller position sizes to avoid being caught on the wrong side of trades, which, lets face facts given the moves you could have been. Equity traders probably took a greater beating than Forex traders this time.\r\n\r\nThere certainly were some spectacular moves.\r\n\r\nThe major pair that I want to focus on (I am going to ignore cross-rates etc) is the USD/CAD.\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>Thursday after Janet Yellen announced that rates were not moving it dropped like a lead balloon from 1.3196 to 1.3070 (126 pips).</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>Then it bounced back from 1.3070 to 1.3188 (118 pips). Pretty much a full and complete recovery.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>Overnight Thursday into Friday it hardly moved until the European session. It then fell from 1.3180 to 1.3017 just after CPi data at 0830AM EDT (163 pips).</li>\r\n	<li>After CPi data it then rallied from 1.3017 to 1.3228 (211 pips).</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThese were phenomenal moves and quite frankly, impossible to predict, what a 27 hours, and considering for about 8/9 hours of the 27 hours it went sideways in a 20-pip range, quite staggering.\r\n\r\nIn the background on Friday prior to CAD CPi being released OIL was dropping in price and so was the USD/CAD, the correlation in pricing broken. Then later on in the day as oil was still falling the USD/CAD resumed it’s correlation and the CAD$ weakened at quite a pace playing catch-up.\r\n\r\nFor Forex Traders to be successful and seek longevity in trading we carve out high probability trades from chart patterns in conjunction with a macro level view of the FUNDAMENTAL economic data. In conjunction with this we have lead indicators that guide us and give us an edge to our trades.\r\n\r\nMy lead indicators are: -\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li style=\"text-align: left;\">OIL</li>\r\n	<li style=\"text-align: left;\">GOLD</li>\r\n	<li style=\"text-align: left;\">COPPER</li>\r\n	<li style=\"text-align: left;\">USD/CAD</li>\r\n	<li>AUD/USD</li>\r\n	<li>AUD/JPY</li>\r\n	<li style=\"text-align: left;\">USD/SEK</li>\r\n	<li>(Currencies also in conjunction with my ) FX PRESSURE CHARTS</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nMy daily routine is to look at these and using multi screens these are my “EDGE” to my selection of trades. They provide me with directional trends and probabilities based on inter-market correlations (I wrote several articles in the autumn/fall of 2013 / spring 2014 about how correlations do matter in Forex Trading).\r\n\r\nI am not saying that I have the “Holy Grail” of Forex Trading, but I am saying that this works for me. In conjunction with my TRADING PLAN, everyone needs a plan, if you don\'t have a plan, as far as I am concerned you would be trading like a headless chicken.\r\n\r\nOn Friday morning, Oil was falling…. so was the USD/CAD. My pressure charts were so RED regarding trading this pair, there was so much money buying CAD$ it would have been crazy to step in and take a trade USD/CAD long.\r\n\r\nAs soon as the CAD CPi data came through, which was in line with expectations, the pair which by this stage was so oversold and below 8/9-trend line support it was prime for bounce. As soon as buyers of the USD appeared, oil was still falling and my charts went a little green I entered long in two different broker accounts. From divergent RSI (Relative Strength Indicators) the oversold conditions were so extreme buyers were leaping in.\r\n\r\nThis was a high probability trade based off severe over-selling; breaking a long established trend line. The selling was so extreme it was bound to overshoot. On two trades I entered before the pair bottomed, and my goal was 20-30 pip trades, as I expected no more than that. The pair rallied 211 pips from the lows to highs; I missed about 150 pips of the move.\r\n\r\nJust for the record, oil dropped 4.7% on the day and closed at $44.68 a barrel. I am still in the camp that Supply and Demand works (My old Economics lecturers “Woodsie and Tossa” would be proud, if they are still alive?), oil has sub $40.00 written all over it.\r\n\r\nBack to the trade…\r\n\r\nDid I do well?\r\n\r\nI am not looking for a pat on the back.\r\n\r\nI watched the pair move lower.\r\n\r\nI checked my correlations / lead indicators / pressure charts / identified on my charts key support levels whether they be horizontal support areas or Fibonacci levels.\r\n\r\nI looked at the next level lower to establish my RISK.\r\n\r\nI created what I call my “ACTIVE ZONE” (This is where if I feel the trade is right I will establish my trade).\r\n\r\nI established my target / limit zones.\r\n\r\nThese were FLASH TRADES (as I call them) anything between 10 and 50 pips but mostly I like 20-30 pip objectives.\r\n\r\nWhen the oil price darted lower, the entry-level indicators on my pressure charts were green for go and I went long at two different places in two different broker accounts.\r\n\r\nYes, looking back I could have taken 50% off my position size when the trade reached my target area then moved my stop to breakeven and let the trade run. At the time the volatility was so great, and my plan had been set long before the trade commenced I knew what I was going to do and I did it.\r\n\r\nAs I stated earlier I am not looking for a pat on the back. Not all trades no matter how well thought out run as planned/hoped. But you need to have the mindset to seek out high probability trades so that the numbers of successful trades outweigh the loss making ones.\r\n\r\nMy point with this example of a trade that was undertaken is that Forex trading has to be thought out, even under high pressure, which, Friday morning definitely was.\r\n\r\nAs long as you can identify high probability trades and set in place via your TRADING PLAN your routine required, the critical success factors that must be met to make the trade happen… then… you stand a chance of succeeding with longevity as long as you apply RISK MANAGEMENT to your POSITION SIZING.\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>I identified the USD/CAD long as a high probability trade to look at.</li>\r\n	<li>My RISK/REWARD was established before the trade.</li>\r\n	<li>My entry/exits were zoned on my charts before I entered.</li>\r\n	<li>I was checking all my lead indicators all the time on my screens to give me the green for go.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThe routine is the same for my FUNDAMENTAL or RADAR trades. The major difference is that they are not as time pressured with eyes tracking 6 screens. They are pre-meditated trades.\r\n\r\nForex trading is a business. It is you versus the world. Every EDGE you have gets you a notch closer to having more profitable trades than losing ones. To be disciplined at all times is the key to success in my opinion.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n	<li><strong> WHAT’S ON MY MIND:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">This week’s main blog title is…</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">JANET YELLEN DITHERS, MOVES GOAL POSTS\r\n&amp;\r\nCREATES MORE MARKET UNCERTAINTY</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Last week’s main blog article title was….</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">WILL THE FOMC DITHER\r\nOR\r\nWILL YELLEN DELIVER THE PUNCH?</p>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nWhat can I say?\r\n\r\nI am originally from Liverpool. I could write for hours this week. To keep this short and focused with what is running through my brain will be difficult…. but I will try.\r\n\r\nI have listened to and read so many comments, both financial and political about the FOMC announcement last Thursday that my brain hurts.\r\n\r\nFor the love of God, this is dithering…this is moving the goal posts because the FOMC is sh*t scarred of making an error.\r\n\r\nTo blame the emerging markets and/or China for the FED not raising rates, is in my opinion utter boll**cks. All of the American commentators and analysts were in full voice shouting at the TV stating that the FED has to consider the world position and is now the banker for the world, because world global economies are so under-performing…. blah, blah fecking blah.\r\n\r\nThe FED has a mandate on inflation, interest rates and employment.\r\n\r\nIt never considered any other country when Ben Bernanke flooded the U.S. economy with cash and went on a bond-buying spree dropping wedges of $100 bills into New York and Chicago.\r\n\r\nSure there are global risks, for God’s sake there always are.\r\n\r\nNow as I read it, the FED mandate also includes managing “Asset Prices” because that is essentially what Janet Yellen has indicated through her very/extremely dovish stance.\r\n\r\nShe talks a lot about inflation and the FED target rate of 2%. She wants to see inflation approaching this level. Well excuse me for saying, but there isn’t a central banker on the planet right now or any ex. Central bank governor or president alive who knows how to increase the inflation levels within an economy.\r\n\r\nIf this is going to be a stumbling block we will never see rates rise at all for years. ZIRP is the new normal.\r\n\r\nAll this forward guidance counted for nothing. It’s OK when moving lower with rates, all the cuddles are handed out to all areas of the market… we love you guys, we will accommodate the markets we will support you. Providing forward guidance when trying to raise rates is virtually, if not, completely impossible as the FED cannot state on what date interest rates will increase and by how much. Goals and objectives were set out but now these are fudged and the goal posts moved.\r\n\r\nThe FOMC played Wall Street. However, Main Street must be thinking, Holy Mother of God, 7 years of zero interest rates and the FED can’t even put 0.25% on the board. How unstable and fragile is our economy? Can it still be this bad after 7 years, not even 0.25%? Consumer confidence numbers will be interesting to gauge moving forward.\r\n\r\nThis is dithering. Janet Yellen knows she can’t influence inflation. This is a red herring.\r\n\r\nShe has created the very thing she says she wants to rid the markets of…UNCERTAINTY.\r\n\r\nThe markets initial response was reversed and then reversed again and then reversed once more… thank God the FED wants stability!!\r\n\r\nFor once, I actually believed that the markets had all but priced in this rate rise. The world reaction was surprise. Even the BOE had MPC members quoting loosening rather than tightening last Friday. Talk about an about turn.\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, Yellen has created great uncertainty and by introducing a host of outside factors in the melting pot, the decision on rates increasing this year is not 100% certain.\r\n\r\nWhat does this do for longer-term trading plans?\r\n\r\nWell my thoughts and my plan are on hold for now. I need to gather more information and more data and see the markets reaction to this non-move.\r\n\r\nI could only imagine what Mario Draghi felt like at 3.15PM EDT last Thursday with the EUR/USD at 1.1450. I would say not comfortable.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:\r\n</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n3.1: SUMMARY OF YEAR TO DATE PERFORMANCE - 2015:\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">PREMIUM SERVICE – COST INCOME ANALYSIS (USD):</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">EMANATING FROM TRADE SET-UPS – to September 18th 2015.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">MICRO LOT TRADER - 489 trades cost to trade = $48.90\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 489 trades = <strong>$803.30</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">MINI LOT TRADER - 489 trades cost to trade = $489.00\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 489 trades = <strong>$8,033.00</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">STANDARD LOT TRADER - 489 trades cost to trade = $4,890.00\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 489 trades = <strong>$80,330.00</strong></p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n3.2: PREMIUM SERVICE – TRADE SUMMARIES MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PREM-SERV-PROFITS1-19092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6450\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PREM-SERV-PROFITS1-19092015.png\" alt=\"PREM SERV PROFITS1 19092015\" width=\"462\" height=\"417\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PREM-SERV-PROFITS2-19092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6451\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PREM-SERV-PROFITS2-19092015.png\" alt=\"PREM SERV PROFITS2 19092015\" width=\"471\" height=\"411\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNOTES:\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>If the above return from Forex Trading interests you go to my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> and check out the subscription options and special promotions under the tabs “PREMIUM SERVICE” and “PROMOTIONS”</li>\r\n	<li>The performance above is based off single-lot trade sizes.</li>\r\n	<li>THE PREMIUM SERVICE has subscribers with broker accounts of sizes ranging from $2,500 to over $100,000. A profitable trade is a profitable trade. It is all about trading according to the size of your broker account (EFFECTIVE POSITION SIZING) and applying RISK MANAGEMENT principles at all times.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) SUBSCRIBER CONTENT:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(The following section is additional data, thoughts, and ideas exclusively for PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) subscribers)\r\n\r\n4.1: THE PREMIUM SERVICE – TRADING REVIEW &amp; LOOKING FORWARD:\r\n\r\nI held back on trade volume this past week in view of the FOMC announcement.\r\n\r\nTrades that were undertaken were mainly FLASH TRADES and from a trading perspective this had to be expected.\r\n\r\nOn the positive front, the PREMIUM SERVICE account for September went positive overall, which is a good motivational view to have. RADAR TRADES are however negative for the month so far.\r\n\r\nI have a lot of part-time subscribers who only trade RADAR and FUNDAMENTAL trades. This month you are basically at break even if you trade my suggestions 100%. The PREMIUM SERVICE is running basically 66% / 33% profitable versus loss making trades this month so far.\r\n\r\nOver this weekend, I am carrying four negative trades forward. Despite being under water, I am comfortable with all four trades, in regards to their direction and position size. The risk from my perspective is manageable.\r\n\r\nLooking forward, Yellen certainly has thrown things up in the air and I need to gather more information and gauge the market reaction before committing to longer-term trades. I have a SKYPE meeting with my peer group tomorrow (Monday 21<sup>st</sup>) and I will see where they’re thoughts are and add them to my own.\r\n\r\nThere will be opportunities; I have no doubt about that at all. Later in this section I have looked at cross rate charts as these will offer good pip potentials if “RISK OFF” really comes back with a bang.\r\n\r\nI have a few ideas in mind and I hope to get these to you during the European session Monday.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.2: MAJOR TRADING PAIRS WITH LONGER-TERM MATCHING TRENDS:\r\n\r\n(The following currency pairs have Short Term (DAILY), Medium Term (WEEKLY) and Long Term (MONTHLY) charts all trending in the same direction).\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/TRENDING-19092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6452\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/TRENDING-19092015.png\" alt=\"TRENDING 19092015\" width=\"506\" height=\"635\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.3: THE PREMIUM SERVICE - LIVE TRADES ARE:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/LIVE-TRADES-19092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6453\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/LIVE-TRADES-19092015.png\" alt=\"LIVE TRADES 19092015\" width=\"723\" height=\"566\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.4: THE PREMIUM SERVICE – LIMIT ORDER TRADES ARE:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/RADAR-TRADES-19092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6454\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/RADAR-TRADES-19092015.png\" alt=\"RADAR TRADES 19092015\" width=\"715\" height=\"446\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.5: POTENTIAL TRADES - WHAT PAIRS / CHARTS AM I LOOKING AT?\r\n\r\nI have added all the cross rate pairs here with the EUR/GBP as well. My comments and thoughts are on the charts below.\r\n\r\nMost of the cross rates are heading towards interesting Fibonacci levels. In a normal market I would be looking to pick up long at these levels, as you will see from the charts. However, it is NOT normal at the moment and caution needs to be applied.\r\n\r\nIn addition to the EUR/GBP, I am also looking at USD/CAD and USD/CHF longs again on pullbacks. I will probably have something on paper regarding these into the European open or just before the US open on Monday.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURAUD-DAILY-19092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6467\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURAUD-DAILY-19092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"EURAUD DAILY 19092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURCAD-MONTHLY-19092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6466\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURCAD-MONTHLY-19092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"EURCAD MONTHLY 19092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURGBP-DAILY-19092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6465\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURGBP-DAILY-19092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"EURGBP DAILY 19092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURNZD-DAILY-19092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6464\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURNZD-DAILY-19092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"EURNZD DAILY 19092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GBPAUD-DAILY-19092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6463\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GBPAUD-DAILY-19092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"GBPAUD DAILY 19092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GBPCAD-MONTHLY-19092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6462\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GBPCAD-MONTHLY-19092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"GBPCAD MONTHLY 19092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GBPNZD-DAILY-19092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6461\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GBPNZD-DAILY-19092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"GBPNZD DAILY 19092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n	<li><strong> MY FINAL THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nOVERVIEW OF TRADING TIPS &amp; THOUGHTS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD:\r\n\r\nWe have to trade smart this week and allow the dust to settle.\r\n\r\nMany of the big institutional investors were either squared off ahead of the FOMC or not 100% back at their trade desks following the summer break, knowing that this FOMC meeting was so important they did not want to establish prior positions.\r\n\r\nWe need to allow these movers back into the market and then plan.\r\n\r\nWithout doubt the smart money was in cash ahead of the FOMC decision and this cash being re-introduced will affect how the markets move forward together with central bank reaction around the globe. We have Poloz and Draghi scheduled this week and based upon the fact BOE MPC members were chomping at the bit to speak last Friday do not be surprised to hear Mark Carney utter a few sentences.\r\n\r\nWe are in news driven, central banker environment right now so we need to trade cleverly, whether you are a scalper, medium term swing or longer-term position trader.\r\n\r\nWatch oil; it is a fundamental to basically every markets move and inter-market correlations. Breaking below $40.00 will be a huge event this week, even if it is expected. The question will be where does it stop? It is a pure speculators market and I have no doubt a few will have deep enough pockets to try and pick a bottom, but, would you stand in front of falling oil prices? I know I would not.\r\n\r\nOil is not just about the CAD, NOK and MXN it is about the USD as well. Watch its movements. It is a great lead indicator…. most of the time!!\r\n\r\nTake care.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nhttps://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/','JANET YELLEN DITHERS, MOVES GOAL POSTS  &  CREATES MORE MARKET UNCERTAINTY','','inherit','closed','closed','','6469-revision-v1','','','2015-09-20 05:49:25','2015-09-20 10:49:25','',6469,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/6469-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(6476,1,'2015-09-20 06:15:15','2015-09-20 11:15:15','<h3 style=\"text-align: center;\">THE PREMIUM SERVICE\r\nfrom the\r\nWEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU\r\n“The Home of Single Lot Trading”</h3>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li><strong>THE VIEW FROM MY TRADE DESK:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nLOOKING BACKWARDS, FORWARDS &amp; SIDEWAYS (FOR GOOD MEASURE) AT THE FX MARKET:\r\n\r\n1.1: LOOKING BACKWARDS:\r\n\r\nWell the FOMC didn’t move on rates. Have they missed the moment? I think possibly?\r\n\r\nMonday through Wednesday was very calm. The last 48 hours of the week were really busy. Thursday running up to the announcement, I was at my desk early for the SNB non-event and then I spent time exiting profitable USD related trades and managing my way out of negative USD related trades in readiness for the FED announcement.\r\n\r\nThen it was just a roller-coaster ride…..\r\n\r\nI know that there was other news last week, but it’s all just gone blank. The Fed decision dominated my thoughts running up to the announcement and it looks like it has blanked my memory as well. I think that my mind is a blank because I just could not believe what I was hearing, and my thought process was in confused mode. If I were a computer I would have pressed CTRL-ALT-DELETE and re-booted. I think that this is what caused my memory loss from earlier in the week. It wasn’t due to alcohol abuse at all, my wife was sun bathing in the garden and never came into the office with a “Jack and Diet” or a “Glass of Pinot”, which she often does on FED days.\r\n\r\nI have written my own views on the so-called “Historic Day”. This is in section 2, later in this blog.\r\n\r\nApart from the SNB non-event and the FOMC, the only other news that resonates with me, were the sound-bytes out of the BOE. Some MPC members were on the Reuters news wires talking about loosening rather than tightening monetary policy. Very interesting.\r\n\r\nAs a FUNDAMENTAL trader this is a development upon which, I need to seek further clarification over the coming days.\r\n\r\nI get the feeling that there are some very anxious fund managers and institutional investors dotted around the four corners of the world who will be very tentatively pouring out their cornflakes over the weekend reading the newspapers etc. This will be a developing story and one I will sink my teeth into in my own style moving forward.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n1.2: LOOKING FORWARDS:\r\n\r\nMAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:\r\n\r\n(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market other than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to <a href=\"http://www.forexfactory.com\">www.forexfactory.com</a> and <a href=\"http://www.tradingeconomics.com\">www.tradingeconomics.com</a> for a more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).\r\nSUNDAY: EUR - Greece Parliamentary Election.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: CAD – BOC Stephen Poloz…speaks.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: CNY – Flash Manufacturing PMi.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: EUR – French &amp; German Flash Manufacturing PMi.\r\nWEDNESDAY: CAD – Core Retail Sales.\r\nWEDNESDAY: EUR - ECB Mario Draghi… speaks.\r\nWEDNESDAY: NZD – Trade Balance.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: USD – Janet Yellen… speaks.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: USD - GDP.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMY THOUGHTS ON THE NEWS ITEMS THIS COMING WEEK:\r\n\r\nI find it incredible. A few months ago the news of a Greek election would have pretty much dominated the headlines. Well, here we are with an election happening today, (Sunday 20<sup>th</sup> September 2015) and, its not making any headlines at all.\r\n\r\nThe Syriza and New Democracy (ND) parties are running neck and neck. Alexis Tsipras’s popularity as Prime Minister has plummeted from over 60% to around 30%. I believe that had one of the more radical parties, like the “Golden Dawn” the Greek nationalist party or the Greek Communist Party (KKE) been able to draw more than 5% in the polls we may have seen some news about Greece on the TV and on the news wires.\r\n\r\nThere are quite a few parties standing and the outcome looks likely to be a hung parliament. The big question will be of course, can Antonis Samaras, leader of the New Democracy or Tsipras’s, radical left coalition work together in a government collation? Personally, I doubt it. Then the question is, can a workable majority be formed by coalitions with the smaller parties, probably not enough seats to enable a workable majority, given the many factions that co-exist within the political parties inside Greece.\r\n\r\nWill a minority government work? I doubt that as well. Therefore, it looks to me that as Greece may not return a majority government…. uncertainty rules.\r\n\r\nFrom a trading perspective, this could set up some nice EUR trades.\r\n\r\nWe also have some central banker talk this week. In the following order we have comments due from, Stephen Poloz from the BOC, Mario Draghi from the ECB and the “ditherer” from the FED.\r\n\r\nGoing sideways for a paragraph or three…\r\n\r\nThese people are now perceived by the media and the markets and by some of them themselves as “Rock Stars”. They certainly have the power to control and influence; we have seen this increase since the financial crisis of 2008-2009.It won’t be too long before their status and power is taken to the next level.\r\n\r\nCould you imagine the following music being played for each central bank president or governor as they walk into the monetary policy meeting with dry ice machines in full operation? : -\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>Graeme Wheeler (RBNZ) – I Can’t Explain by The Who.</li>\r\n	<li>Mario Draghi (ECB) – I Have The Touch by Peter Gabriel.</li>\r\n	<li>Mark Carney (BOE) – Queen Bitch by David Bowie.</li>\r\n	<li>Stephen Poloz (BOC) – Dazed and Confused by Led Zeppelin.</li>\r\n	<li>Janet Yellen (FED) – She’s So Cold by The Rolling Stones.</li>\r\n	<li>Glen Stevens (RBA) – Cigarettes and Alcohol by Oasis.</li>\r\n	<li>Thomas Jordan (SNB) – Breaking All The Rules by Peter Frampton.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nIt would certainly bring more theatre to the monetary policy statement meetings and take the focus away from the colour of the tie being worn.\r\n\r\nGetting back on track…\r\n\r\nFollowing the FOMC no rate hike, I think that anything that is said now by central bank governors will be dissected word by word in as much detail as if it were one of those biology lessons you had as a child in school, taking a frog apart.\r\n\r\nI think we as traders should be on our guard and ready for fireworks if policy is to be discussed or questions answered at any of these events.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMY KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS THIS WEEK FOR USD MAJORS<strong>:</strong>\r\n\r\n(All of my thoughts / ideas / support / resistance levels are noted on the charts below. As always I have cleaned these charts as much as possible to try to enable the viewer to see what I am talking about, without tens of indicators clouding the screen. If you want charts with indicators galore just ask me, they are available on request).\r\n\r\nEUR/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.1301\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURUSD-DAILY-19092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6459\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURUSD-DAILY-19092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"EURUSD DAILY 19092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.5532\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GBPUSD-DAILY-19092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6458\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GBPUSD-DAILY-19092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"GBPUSD DAILY 19092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.7191\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/AUDUSD-DAILY-19092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6460\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/AUDUSD-DAILY-19092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"AUDUSD DAILY 19092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.6412\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/NZDUSD-DAILY-19092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6468\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/NZDUSD-DAILY-19092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"NZDUSD DAILY 19092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.3224\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCAD-DAILY-19092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6457\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCAD-DAILY-19092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"USDCAD DAILY 19092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF - Weekly Closing Price: 0.9689\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCHF-DAILY-19092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6456\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCHF-DAILY-19092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"USDCHF DAILY 19092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY - Weekly Closing Price: 120.00\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDJPY-DAILY-19092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6455\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDJPY-DAILY-19092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"USDJPY DAILY 19092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n1.3: LOOKING SIDEWAYS (FOR GOOD MEASURE):\r\n\r\nThis week, I want to give an example of two trades I took on Friday morning last week.\r\n\r\nThere were some crazy moves in the last 27 hours of the week’s trading hours. I hope that most of my subscribers took heed of the warnings and traded a little smaller position sizes to avoid being caught on the wrong side of trades, which, lets face facts given the moves you could have been. Equity traders probably took a greater beating than Forex traders this time.\r\n\r\nThere certainly were some spectacular moves.\r\n\r\nThe major pair that I want to focus on (I am going to ignore cross-rates etc) is the USD/CAD.\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>Thursday after Janet Yellen announced that rates were not moving it dropped like a lead balloon from 1.3196 to 1.3070 (126 pips).</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>Then it bounced back from 1.3070 to 1.3188 (118 pips). Pretty much a full and complete recovery.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>Overnight Thursday into Friday it hardly moved until the European session. It then fell from 1.3180 to 1.3017 just after CPi data at 0830AM EDT (163 pips).</li>\r\n	<li>After CPi data it then rallied from 1.3017 to 1.3228 (211 pips).</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThese were phenomenal moves and quite frankly, impossible to predict, what a 27 hours, and considering for about 8/9 hours of the 27 hours it went sideways in a 20-pip range, quite staggering.\r\n\r\nIn the background on Friday prior to CAD CPi being released OIL was dropping in price and so was the USD/CAD, the correlation in pricing broken. Then later on in the day as oil was still falling the USD/CAD resumed it’s correlation and the CAD$ weakened at quite a pace playing catch-up.\r\n\r\nFor Forex Traders to be successful and seek longevity in trading we carve out high probability trades from chart patterns in conjunction with a macro level view of the FUNDAMENTAL economic data. In conjunction with this we have lead indicators that guide us and give us an edge to our trades.\r\n\r\nMy lead indicators are: -\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>OIL</li>\r\n	<li>GOLD</li>\r\n	<li>COPPER</li>\r\n	<li>USD/CAD</li>\r\n	<li>AUD/USD</li>\r\n	<li>AUD/JPY</li>\r\n	<li>USD/SEK</li>\r\n	<li>I ALSO REVIEW MY FX PRESSURE CHARTS</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nMy daily routine is to look at these and using multi screens these are my “EDGE” to my selection of trades. They provide me with directional trends and probabilities based on inter-market correlations (I wrote several articles in the autumn/fall of 2013 / spring 2014 about how correlations do matter in Forex Trading).\r\n\r\nI am not saying that I have the “Holy Grail” of Forex Trading, but I am saying that this works for me. In conjunction with my TRADING PLAN, everyone needs a plan, if you don\'t have a plan, as far as I am concerned you would be trading like a headless chicken.\r\n\r\nOn Friday morning, Oil was falling…. so was the USD/CAD. My pressure charts were so RED regarding trading this pair, there was so much money buying CAD$ it would have been crazy to step in and take a trade USD/CAD long.\r\n\r\nAs soon as the CAD CPi data came through, which was in line with expectations, the pair which by this stage was so oversold and below 8/9-trend line support it was prime for bounce. As soon as buyers of the USD appeared, oil was still falling and my charts went a little green I entered long in two different broker accounts. From divergent RSI (Relative Strength Indicators) the oversold conditions were so extreme buyers were leaping in.\r\n\r\nThis was a high probability trade based off severe over-selling; breaking a long established trend line. The selling was so extreme it was bound to overshoot. On two trades I entered before the pair bottomed, and my goal was 20-30 pip trades, as I expected no more than that. The pair rallied 211 pips from the lows to highs; I missed about 150 pips of the move.\r\n\r\nJust for the record, oil dropped 4.7% on the day and closed at $44.68 a barrel. I am still in the camp that Supply and Demand works (My old Economics lecturers “Woodsie and Tossa” would be proud, if they are still alive?), oil has sub $40.00 written all over it.\r\n\r\nBack to the trade…\r\n\r\nDid I do well?\r\n\r\nI am not looking for a pat on the back.\r\n\r\nI watched the pair move lower.\r\n\r\nI checked my correlations / lead indicators / pressure charts / identified on my charts key support levels whether they be horizontal support areas or Fibonacci levels.\r\n\r\nI looked at the next level lower to establish my RISK.\r\n\r\nI created what I call my “ACTIVE ZONE” (This is where if I feel the trade is right I will establish my trade).\r\n\r\nI established my target / limit zones.\r\n\r\nThese were FLASH TRADES (as I call them) anything between 10 and 50 pips but mostly I like 20-30 pip objectives.\r\n\r\nWhen the oil price darted lower, the entry-level indicators on my pressure charts were green for go and I went long at two different places in two different broker accounts.\r\n\r\nYes, looking back I could have taken 50% off my position size when the trade reached my target area then moved my stop to breakeven and let the trade run. At the time the volatility was so great, and my plan had been set long before the trade commenced I knew what I was going to do and I did it.\r\n\r\nAs I stated earlier I am not looking for a pat on the back. Not all trades no matter how well thought out run as planned/hoped. But you need to have the mindset to seek out high probability trades so that the numbers of successful trades outweigh the loss making ones.\r\n\r\nMy point with this example of a trade that was undertaken is that Forex trading has to be thought out, even under high pressure, which, Friday morning definitely was.\r\n\r\nAs long as you can identify high probability trades and set in place via your TRADING PLAN your routine required, the critical success factors that must be met to make the trade happen… then… you stand a chance of succeeding with longevity as long as you apply RISK MANAGEMENT to your POSITION SIZING.\r\n\r\nI identified the USD/CAD long as a high probability trade to look at.\r\n\r\nMy RISK/REWARD was established before the trade.\r\n\r\nMy entry/exits were zoned on my charts before I entered.\r\n\r\nI was checking all my lead indicators all the time on my screens to give me the green for go.\r\n\r\nThe routine is the same for my FUNDAMENTAL or RADAR trades. The major difference is that they are not as time pressured with eyes tracking 6 screens. They are pre-meditated trades.\r\n\r\nForex trading is a business. It is you versus the world. Every EDGE you have gets you a notch closer to having more profitable trades than losing ones. To be disciplined at all times is the key to success in my opinion.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n	<li><strong> WHAT’S ON MY MIND:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">This week’s main blog title is…</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>JANET YELLEN DITHERS, MOVES GOAL POSTS</strong>\r\n<strong> &amp;</strong>\r\n<strong> CREATES MORE MARKET UNCERTAINTY</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Last week’s main blog article title was….</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>WILL THE FOMC DITHER</strong>\r\n<strong> OR</strong>\r\n<strong> WILL YELLEN DELIVER THE PUNCH?</strong></p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nWhat can I say?\r\n\r\nI am originally from Liverpool. I could write for hours this week. To keep this short and focused with what is running through my brain will be difficult…. but I will try.\r\n\r\nI have listened to and read so many comments, both financial and political about the FOMC announcement last Thursday that my brain hurts.\r\n\r\nFor the love of God, this is dithering…this is moving the goal posts because the FOMC is sh*t scarred of making an error.\r\n\r\nTo blame the emerging markets and/or China for the FED not raising rates, is in my opinion utter boll**cks. All of the American commentators and analysts were in full voice shouting at the TV stating that the FED has to consider the world position and is now the banker for the world, because world global economies are so under-performing…. blah, blah fecking blah.\r\n\r\nThe FED has a mandate on inflation, interest rates and employment.\r\n\r\nIt never considered any other country when Ben Bernanke flooded the U.S. economy with cash and went on a bond-buying spree dropping wedges of $100 bills into New York and Chicago.\r\n\r\nSure there are global risks, for God’s sake there always are.\r\n\r\nNow as I read it, the FED mandate also includes managing “Asset Prices” because that is essentially what Janet Yellen has indicated through her very/extremely dovish stance.\r\n\r\nShe talks a lot about inflation and the FED target rate of 2%. She wants to see inflation approaching this level. Well excuse me for saying, but there isn’t a central banker on the planet right now or any ex. Central bank governor or president alive who knows how to increase the inflation levels within an economy.\r\n\r\nIf this is going to be a stumbling block we will never see rates rise at all for years. ZIRP is the new normal.\r\n\r\nAll this forward guidance counted for nothing. It’s OK when moving lower with rates, all the cuddles are handed out to all areas of the market… we love you guys, we will accommodate the markets we will support you. Providing forward guidance when trying to raise rates is virtually, if not, completely impossible as the FED cannot state on what date interest rates will increase and by how much. Goals and objectives were set out but now these are fudged and the goal posts moved.\r\n\r\nThe FOMC played Wall Street. However, Main Street must be thinking, Holy Mother of God, 7 years of zero interest rates and the FED can’t even put 0.25% on the board. How unstable and fragile is our economy? Can it still be this bad after 7 years, not even 0.25%? Consumer confidence numbers will be interesting to gauge moving forward.\r\n\r\nThis is dithering. Janet Yellen knows she can’t influence inflation. This is a red herring.\r\n\r\nShe has created the very thing she says she wants to rid the markets of…UNCERTAINTY.\r\n\r\nThe markets initial response was reversed and then reversed again and then reversed once more… thank God the FED wants stability!!\r\n\r\nFor once, I actually believed that the markets had all but priced in this rate rise. The world reaction was surprise. Even the BOE had MPC members quoting loosening rather than tightening last Friday. Talk about an about turn.\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, Yellen has created great uncertainty and by introducing a host of outside factors in the melting pot, the decision on rates increasing this year is not 100% certain.\r\n\r\nWhat does this do for longer-term trading plans?\r\n\r\nWell my thoughts and my plan are on hold for now. I need to gather more information and more data and see the markets reaction to this non-move.\r\n\r\nI could only imagine what Mario Draghi felt like at 3.15PM EDT last Thursday with the EUR/USD at 1.1450. I would say not comfortable.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:\r\n</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n3.1: SUMMARY OF YEAR TO DATE PERFORMANCE - 2015:\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">PREMIUM SERVICE – COST INCOME ANALYSIS (USD):</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">EMANATING FROM TRADE SET-UPS – to September 18th 2015</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">MICRO LOT TRADER - 489 trades cost to trade = $48.90\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 489 trades = <strong>$803.30</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">MINI LOT TRADER - 489 trades cost to trade = $489.00\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 489 trades = <strong>$8,033.00</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">STANDARD LOT TRADER - 489 trades cost to trade = $4,890.00\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 489 trades = <strong>$80,330.00</strong></p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n3.2: PREMIUM SERVICE – TRADE SUMMARIES MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PREM-SERV-PROFITS1-19092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6450\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PREM-SERV-PROFITS1-19092015.png\" alt=\"PREM SERV PROFITS1 19092015\" width=\"462\" height=\"417\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PREM-SERV-PROFITS2-19092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6451\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PREM-SERV-PROFITS2-19092015.png\" alt=\"PREM SERV PROFITS2 19092015\" width=\"471\" height=\"411\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNOTES:\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>If the above return from Forex Trading interests you go to my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> and check out the subscription options and special promotions under the tabs “PREMIUM SERVICE” and “PROMOTIONS”</li>\r\n	<li>The performance above is based off single-lot trade sizes.</li>\r\n	<li>THE PREMIUM SERVICE has subscribers with broker accounts of sizes ranging from $2,500 to over $100,000. A profitable trade is a profitable trade. It is all about trading according to the size of your broker account (EFFECTIVE POSITION SIZING) and applying RISK MANAGEMENT principles at all times.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) SUBSCRIBER CONTENT:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(The following section is additional data, thoughts, and ideas exclusively for PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) subscribers)\r\n\r\n4.1: THE PREMIUM SERVICE – TRADING REVIEW &amp; LOOKING FORWARD:\r\n\r\n4.2: MAJOR TRADING PAIRS WITH LONGER-TERM MATCHING TRENDS:\r\n\r\n4.3: THE PREMIUM SERVICE - LIVE TRADES ARE:\r\n\r\n4.4: THE PREMIUM SERVICE – LIMIT ORDER TRADES ARE:\r\n\r\n4.5: POTENTIAL TRADES - WHAT PAIRS / CHARTS AM I LOOKING AT?\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n	<li><strong> MY FINAL THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nOVERVIEW OF TRADING TIPS &amp; THOUGHTS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD:\r\n\r\nWe have to trade smart this week and allow the dust to settle.\r\n\r\nMany of the big institutional investors were either squared off ahead of the FOMC or not 100% back at their trade desks following the summer break, knowing that this FOMC meeting was so important they did not want to establish prior positions.\r\n\r\nWe need to allow these movers back into the market and then plan.\r\n\r\nWithout doubt the smart money was in cash ahead of the FOMC decision and this cash being re-introduced will affect how the markets move forward together with central bank reaction around the globe. We have Poloz and Draghi scheduled this week and based upon the fact BOE MPC members were chomping at the bit to speak last Friday do not be surprised to hear Mark Carney utter a few sentences.\r\n\r\nWe are in news driven, central banker environment right now so we need to trade cleverly, whether you are a scalper, medium term swing or longer-term position trader.\r\n\r\nWatch oil; it is a fundamental to basically every markets move and inter-market correlations. Breaking below $40.00 will be a huge event this week, even if it is expected. The question will be where does it stop? It is a pure speculators market and I have no doubt a few will have deep enough pockets to try and pick a bottom, but, would you stand in front of falling oil prices? I know I would not.\r\n\r\nOil is not just about the CAD, NOK and MXN it is about the USD as well. Watch its movements. It is a great lead indicator…. most of the time!!\r\n\r\nTake care.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\r\n</a>BLOG REF#167','JANET YELLEN DITHERS, MOVES GOAL POSTS  &  CREATES MORE MARKET UNCERTAINTY','','publish','open','closed','','janet-yellen-dithers-moves-goal-posts-creates-more-market-uncertainty','','','2015-09-20 06:15:15','2015-09-20 11:15:15','',0,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?p=6476',0,'post','',0),(6477,1,'2015-09-20 06:13:51','2015-09-20 11:13:51','<p style=\"text-align: center;\">THE PREMIUM SERVICE\r\nfrom the\r\nWEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU\r\n“The Home of Single Lot Trading”</p>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li><strong>THE VIEW FROM MY TRADE DESK:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nLOOKING BACKWARDS, FORWARDS &amp; SIDEWAYS (FOR GOOD MEASURE) AT THE FX MARKET:\r\n\r\n1.1: LOOKING BACKWARDS:\r\n\r\nWell the FOMC didn’t move on rates. Have they missed the moment? I think possibly?\r\n\r\nMonday through Wednesday was very calm. The last 48 hours of the week were really busy. Thursday running up to the announcement, I was at my desk early for the SNB non-event and then I spent time exiting profitable USD related trades and managing my way out of negative USD related trades in readiness for the FED announcement.\r\n\r\nThen it was just a roller-coaster ride…..\r\n\r\nI know that there was other news last week, but it’s all just gone blank. The Fed decision dominated my thoughts running up to the announcement and it looks like it has blanked my memory as well. I think that my mind is a blank because I just could not believe what I was hearing, and my thought process was in confused mode. If I were a computer I would have pressed CTRL-ALT-DELETE and re-booted. I think that this is what caused my memory loss from earlier in the week. It wasn’t due to alcohol abuse at all, my wife was sun bathing in the garden and never came into the office with a “Jack and Diet” or a “Glass of Pinot”, which she often does on FED days.\r\n\r\nI have written my own views on the so-called “Historic Day”. This is in section 2, later in this blog.\r\n\r\nApart from the SNB non-event and the FOMC, the only other news that resonates with me, were the sound-bytes out of the BOE. Some MPC members were on the Reuters news wires talking about loosening rather than tightening monetary policy. Very interesting.\r\n\r\nAs a FUNDAMENTAL trader this is a development upon which, I need to seek further clarification over the coming days.\r\n\r\nI get the feeling that there are some very anxious fund managers and institutional investors dotted around the four corners of the world who will be very tentatively pouring out their cornflakes over the weekend reading the newspapers etc. This will be a developing story and one I will sink my teeth into in my own style moving forward.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n1.2: LOOKING FORWARDS:\r\n\r\nMAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:\r\n\r\n(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market other than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to <a href=\"http://www.forexfactory.com\">www.forexfactory.com</a> and <a href=\"http://www.tradingeconomics.com\">www.tradingeconomics.com</a> for a more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).\r\nSUNDAY: EUR - Greece Parliamentary Election.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: CAD – BOC Stephen Poloz…speaks.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: CNY – Flash Manufacturing PMi.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: EUR – French &amp; German Flash Manufacturing PMi.\r\nWEDNESDAY: CAD – Core Retail Sales.\r\nWEDNESDAY: EUR - ECB Mario Draghi… speaks.\r\nWEDNESDAY: NZD – Trade Balance.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: USD – Janet Yellen… speaks.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: USD - GDP.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMY THOUGHTS ON THE NEWS ITEMS THIS COMING WEEK:\r\n\r\nI find it incredible. A few months ago the news of a Greek election would have pretty much dominated the headlines. Well, here we are with an election happening today, (Sunday 20<sup>th</sup> September 2015) and, its not making any headlines at all.\r\n\r\nThe Syriza and New Democracy (ND) parties are running neck and neck. Alexis Tsipras’s popularity as Prime Minister has plummeted from over 60% to around 30%. I believe that had one of the more radical parties, like the “Golden Dawn” the Greek nationalist party or the Greek Communist Party (KKE) been able to draw more than 5% in the polls we may have seen some news about Greece on the TV and on the news wires.\r\n\r\nThere are quite a few parties standing and the outcome looks likely to be a hung parliament. The big question will be of course, can Antonis Samaras, leader of the New Democracy or Tsipras’s, radical left coalition work together in a government collation? Personally, I doubt it. Then the question is, can a workable majority be formed by coalitions with the smaller parties, probably not enough seats to enable a workable majority, given the many factions that co-exist within the political parties inside Greece.\r\n\r\nWill a minority government work? I doubt that as well. Therefore, it looks to me that as Greece may not return a majority government…. uncertainty rules.\r\n\r\nFrom a trading perspective, this could set up some nice EUR trades.\r\n\r\nWe also have some central banker talk this week. In the following order we have comments due from, Stephen Poloz from the BOC, Mario Draghi from the ECB and the “ditherer” from the FED.\r\n\r\nGoing sideways for a paragraph or three…\r\n\r\nThese people are now perceived by the media and the markets and by some of them themselves as “Rock Stars”. They certainly have the power to control and influence; we have seen this increase since the financial crisis of 2008-2009.It won’t be too long before their status and power is taken to the next level.\r\n\r\nCould you imagine the following music being played for each central bank president or governor as they walk into the monetary policy meeting with dry ice machines in full operation? : -\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>Graeme Wheeler (RBNZ) – I Can’t Explain by The Who.</li>\r\n	<li>Mario Draghi (ECB) – I Have The Touch by Peter Gabriel.</li>\r\n	<li>Mark Carney (BOE) – Queen Bitch by David Bowie.</li>\r\n	<li>Stephen Poloz (BOC) – Dazed and Confused by Led Zeppelin.</li>\r\n	<li>Janet Yellen (FED) – She’s So Cold by The Rolling Stones.</li>\r\n	<li>Glen Stevens (RBA) – Cigarettes and Alcohol by Oasis.</li>\r\n	<li>Thomas Jordan (SNB) – Breaking All The Rules by Peter Frampton.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nIt would certainly bring more theatre to the monetary policy statement meetings and take the focus away from the colour of the tie being worn.\r\n\r\nGetting back on track…\r\n\r\nFollowing the FOMC no rate hike, I think that anything that is said now by central bank governors will be dissected word by word in as much detail as if it were one of those biology lessons you had as a child in school, taking a frog apart.\r\n\r\nI think we as traders should be on our guard and ready for fireworks if policy is to be discussed or questions answered at any of these events.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMY KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS THIS WEEK FOR USD MAJORS<strong>:</strong>\r\n\r\n(All of my thoughts / ideas / support / resistance levels are noted on the charts below. As always I have cleaned these charts as much as possible to try to enable the viewer to see what I am talking about, without tens of indicators clouding the screen. If you want charts with indicators galore just ask me, they are available on request).\r\n\r\nEUR/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.1301\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURUSD-DAILY-19092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6459\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURUSD-DAILY-19092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"EURUSD DAILY 19092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.5532\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GBPUSD-DAILY-19092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6458\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GBPUSD-DAILY-19092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"GBPUSD DAILY 19092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.7191\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/AUDUSD-DAILY-19092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6460\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/AUDUSD-DAILY-19092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"AUDUSD DAILY 19092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.6412\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/NZDUSD-DAILY-19092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6468\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/NZDUSD-DAILY-19092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"NZDUSD DAILY 19092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.3224\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCAD-DAILY-19092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6457\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCAD-DAILY-19092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"USDCAD DAILY 19092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF - Weekly Closing Price: 0.9689\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCHF-DAILY-19092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6456\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCHF-DAILY-19092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"USDCHF DAILY 19092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY - Weekly Closing Price: 120.00\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDJPY-DAILY-19092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6455\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDJPY-DAILY-19092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"USDJPY DAILY  19092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n1.3: LOOKING SIDEWAYS (FOR GOOD MEASURE):\r\n\r\nThis week, I want to give an example of two trades I took on Friday morning last week.\r\n\r\nThere were some crazy moves in the last 27 hours of the week’s trading hours. I hope that most of my subscribers took heed of the warnings and traded a little smaller position sizes to avoid being caught on the wrong side of trades, which, lets face facts given the moves you could have been. Equity traders probably took a greater beating than Forex traders this time.\r\n\r\nThere certainly were some spectacular moves.\r\n\r\nThe major pair that I want to focus on (I am going to ignore cross-rates etc) is the USD/CAD.\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>Thursday after Janet Yellen announced that rates were not moving it dropped like a lead balloon from 1.3196 to 1.3070 (126 pips).</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>Then it bounced back from 1.3070 to 1.3188 (118 pips). Pretty much a full and complete recovery.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>Overnight Thursday into Friday it hardly moved until the European session. It then fell from 1.3180 to 1.3017 just after CPi data at 0830AM EDT (163 pips).</li>\r\n	<li>After CPi data it then rallied from 1.3017 to 1.3228 (211 pips).</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThese were phenomenal moves and quite frankly, impossible to predict, what a 27 hours, and considering for about 8/9 hours of the 27 hours it went sideways in a 20-pip range, quite staggering.\r\n\r\nIn the background on Friday prior to CAD CPi being released OIL was dropping in price and so was the USD/CAD, the correlation in pricing broken. Then later on in the day as oil was still falling the USD/CAD resumed it’s correlation and the CAD$ weakened at quite a pace playing catch-up.\r\n\r\nFor Forex Traders to be successful and seek longevity in trading we carve out high probability trades from chart patterns in conjunction with a macro level view of the FUNDAMENTAL economic data. In conjunction with this we have lead indicators that guide us and give us an edge to our trades.\r\n\r\nMy lead indicators are: -\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>OIL</li>\r\n	<li>GOLD</li>\r\n	<li>COPPER</li>\r\n	<li>USD/CAD</li>\r\n	<li>AUD/USD</li>\r\n	<li>AUD/JPY</li>\r\n	<li>USD/SEK</li>\r\n	<li>I ALSO REVIEW MY FX PRESSURE CHARTS</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nMy daily routine is to look at these and using multi screens these are my “EDGE” to my selection of trades. They provide me with directional trends and probabilities based on inter-market correlations (I wrote several articles in the autumn/fall of 2013 / spring 2014 about how correlations do matter in Forex Trading).\r\n\r\nI am not saying that I have the “Holy Grail” of Forex Trading, but I am saying that this works for me. In conjunction with my TRADING PLAN, everyone needs a plan, if you don\'t have a plan, as far as I am concerned you would be trading like a headless chicken.\r\n\r\nOn Friday morning, Oil was falling…. so was the USD/CAD. My pressure charts were so RED regarding trading this pair, there was so much money buying CAD$ it would have been crazy to step in and take a trade USD/CAD long.\r\n\r\nAs soon as the CAD CPi data came through, which was in line with expectations, the pair which by this stage was so oversold and below 8/9-trend line support it was prime for bounce. As soon as buyers of the USD appeared, oil was still falling and my charts went a little green I entered long in two different broker accounts. From divergent RSI (Relative Strength Indicators) the oversold conditions were so extreme buyers were leaping in.\r\n\r\nThis was a high probability trade based off severe over-selling; breaking a long established trend line. The selling was so extreme it was bound to overshoot. On two trades I entered before the pair bottomed, and my goal was 20-30 pip trades, as I expected no more than that. The pair rallied 211 pips from the lows to highs; I missed about 150 pips of the move.\r\n\r\nJust for the record, oil dropped 4.7% on the day and closed at $44.68 a barrel. I am still in the camp that Supply and Demand works (My old Economics lecturers “Woodsie and Tossa” would be proud, if they are still alive?), oil has sub $40.00 written all over it.\r\n\r\nBack to the trade…\r\n\r\nDid I do well?\r\n\r\nI am not looking for a pat on the back.\r\n\r\nI watched the pair move lower.\r\n\r\nI checked my correlations / lead indicators / pressure charts / identified on my charts key support levels whether they be horizontal support areas or Fibonacci levels.\r\n\r\nI looked at the next level lower to establish my RISK.\r\n\r\nI created what I call my “ACTIVE ZONE” (This is where if I feel the trade is right I will establish my trade).\r\n\r\nI established my target / limit zones.\r\n\r\nThese were FLASH TRADES (as I call them) anything between 10 and 50 pips but mostly I like 20-30 pip objectives.\r\n\r\nWhen the oil price darted lower, the entry-level indicators on my pressure charts were green for go and I went long at two different places in two different broker accounts.\r\n\r\nYes, looking back I could have taken 50% off my position size when the trade reached my target area then moved my stop to breakeven and let the trade run. At the time the volatility was so great, and my plan had been set long before the trade commenced I knew what I was going to do and I did it.\r\n\r\nAs I stated earlier I am not looking for a pat on the back. Not all trades no matter how well thought out run as planned/hoped. But you need to have the mindset to seek out high probability trades so that the numbers of successful trades outweigh the loss making ones.\r\n\r\nMy point with this example of a trade that was undertaken is that Forex trading has to be thought out, even under high pressure, which, Friday morning definitely was.\r\n\r\nAs long as you can identify high probability trades and set in place via your TRADING PLAN your routine required, the critical success factors that must be met to make the trade happen… then… you stand a chance of succeeding with longevity as long as you apply RISK MANGEMENT to your POSITION SIZING.\r\n\r\nI identified the USD/CAD long as a high probability trade to look at.\r\n\r\nMy RISK/REWARD was established before the trade.\r\n\r\nMy entry/exits were zoned on my charts before I entered.\r\n\r\nI was checking all my lead indicators all the time on my screens to give me the green for go.\r\n\r\nThe routine is the same for my FUNDAMENTAL or RADAR trades. The major difference is that they are not as time pressured with eyes tracking 6 screens. They are pre-meditated trades.\r\n\r\nForex trading is a business. It is you versus the world. Every EDGE you have gets you a notch closer to having more profitable trades than losing ones. To be disciplined at all times is the key to success in my opinion.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n	<li><strong> WHAT’S ON MY MIND:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">This week’s main blog title is…</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">JANET YELLEN DITHERS, MOVES GOAL POSTS\r\n&amp;\r\nCREATES MORE MARKET UNCERTAINTY</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Last week’s main blog article title was….</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">WILL THE FOMC DITHER\r\nOR\r\nWILL YELLEN DELIVER THE PUNCH?</p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nWhat can I say?\r\n\r\nI am originally from Liverpool. I could write for hours this week. To keep this short and focused with what is running through my brain will be difficult…. but I will try.\r\n\r\nI have listened to and read so many comments, both financial and political about the FOMC announcement last Thursday that my brain hurts.\r\n\r\nFor the love of God, this is dithering…this is moving the goal posts because the FOMC is sh*t scarred of making an error.\r\n\r\nTo blame the emerging markets and/or China for the FED not raising rates, is in my opinion utter boll**cks. All of the American commentators and analysts were in full voice shouting at the TV stating that the FED has to consider the world position and is now the banker for the world, because world global economies are so under-performing…. blah, blah fecking blah.\r\n\r\nThe FED has a mandate on inflation, interest rates and employment.\r\n\r\nIt never considered any other country when Ben Bernanke flooded the U.S. economy with cash and went on a bond-buying spree dropping wedges of $100 bills into New York and Chicago.\r\n\r\nSure there are global risks, for God’s sake there always are.\r\n\r\nNow as I read it, the FED mandate also includes managing “Asset Prices” because that is essentially what Janet Yellen has indicated through her very/extremely dovish stance.\r\n\r\nShe talks a lot about inflation and the FED target rate of 2%. She wants to see inflation approaching this level. Well excuse me for saying, but there isn’t a central banker on the planet right now or any ex. Central bank governor or president alive who knows how to increase the inflation levels within an economy.\r\n\r\nIf this is going to be a stumbling block we will never see rates rise at all for years. ZIRP is the new normal.\r\n\r\nAll this forward guidance counted for nothing. It’s OK when moving lower with rates, all the cuddles are handed out to all areas of the market… we love you guys, we will accommodate the markets we will support you. Providing forward guidance when trying to raise rates is virtually, if not, completely impossible as the FED cannot state on what date interest rates will increase and by how much. Goals and objectives were set out but now these are fudged and the goal posts moved.\r\n\r\nThe FOMC played Wall Street. However, Main Street must be thinking, Holy Mother of God, 7 years of zero interest rates and the FED can’t even put 0.25% on the board. How unstable and fragile is our economy? Can it still be this bad after 7 years, not even 0.25%? Consumer confidence numbers will be interesting to gauge moving forward.\r\n\r\nThis is dithering. Janet Yellen knows she can’t influence inflation. This is a red herring.\r\n\r\nShe has created the very thing she says she wants to rid the markets of…UNCERTAINTY.\r\n\r\nThe markets initial response was reversed and then reversed again and then reversed once more… thank God the FED wants stability!!\r\n\r\nFor once, I actually believed that the markets had all but priced in this rate rise. The world reaction was surprise. Even the BOE had MPC members quoting loosening rather than tightening last Friday. Talk about an about turn.\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, Yellen has created great uncertainty and by introducing a host of outside factors in the melting pot, the decision on rates increasing this year is not 100% certain.\r\n\r\nWhat does this do for longer-term trading plans?\r\n\r\nWell my thoughts and my plan are on hold for now. I need to gather more information and more data and see the markets reaction to this non-move.\r\n\r\nI could only imagine what Mario Draghi felt like at 3.15PM EDT last Thursday with the EUR/USD at 1.1450. I would say not comfortable.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:\r\n</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n3.1: SUMMARY OF YEAR TO DATE PERFORMANCE - 2015:\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">PREMIUM SERVICE – COST INCOME ANALYSIS (USD):</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">EMANATING FROM TRADE SET-UPS – to September 18th 2015</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">MICRO LOT TRADER - 489 trades cost to trade = $48.90\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 489 trades = <strong>$803.30</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">MINI LOT TRADER - 489 trades cost to trade = $489.00\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 489 trades = <strong>$8,033.00</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">STANDARD LOT TRADER - 489 trades cost to trade = $4,890.00\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 489 trades = <strong>$80,330.00</strong></p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n3.2: PREMIUM SERVICE – TRADE SUMMARIES MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PREM-SERV-PROFITS1-19092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6450\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PREM-SERV-PROFITS1-19092015.png\" alt=\"PREM SERV PROFITS1 19092015\" width=\"462\" height=\"417\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PREM-SERV-PROFITS2-19092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6451\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PREM-SERV-PROFITS2-19092015.png\" alt=\"PREM SERV PROFITS2 19092015\" width=\"471\" height=\"411\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNOTES:\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>If the above return from Forex Trading interests you go to my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> and check out the subscription options and special promotions under the tabs “PREMIUM SERVICE” and “PROMOTIONS”</li>\r\n	<li>The performance above is based off single-lot trade sizes.</li>\r\n	<li>THE PREMIUM SERVICE has subscribers with broker accounts of sizes ranging from $2,500 to over $100,000. A profitable trade is a profitable trade. It is all about trading according to the size of your broker account (EFFECTIVE POSITION SIZING) and applying RISK MANAGEMENT principles at all times.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) SUBSCRIBER CONTENT:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(The following section is additional data, thoughts, and ideas exclusively for PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) subscribers)\r\n\r\n4.1: THE PREMIUM SERVICE – TRADING REVIEW &amp; LOOKING FORWARD:\r\n\r\n4.2: MAJOR TRADING PAIRS WITH LONGER-TERM MATCHING TRENDS:\r\n\r\n4.3: THE PREMIUM SERVICE - LIVE TRADES ARE:\r\n\r\n4.4: THE PREMIUM SERVICE – LIMIT ORDER TRADES ARE:\r\n\r\n4.5: POTENTIAL TRADES - WHAT PAIRS / CHARTS AM I LOOKING AT?\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n	<li><strong> MY FINAL THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nOVERVIEW OF TRADING TIPS &amp; THOUGHTS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD:\r\n\r\nWe have to trade smart this week and allow the dust to settle.\r\n\r\nMany of the big institutional investors were either squared off ahead of the FOMC or not 100% back at their trade desks following the summer break, knowing that this FOMC meeting was so important they did not want to establish prior positions.\r\n\r\nWe need to allow these movers back into the market and then plan.\r\n\r\nWithout doubt the smart money was in cash ahead of the FOMC decision and this cash being re-introduced will affect how the markets move forward together with central bank reaction around the globe. We have Poloz and Draghi scheduled this week and based upon the fact BOE MPC members were chomping at the bit to speak last Friday do not be surprised to hear Mark Carney utter a few sentences.\r\n\r\nWe are in news driven, central banker environment right now so we need to trade cleverly, whether you are a scalper, medium term swing or longer-term position trader.\r\n\r\nWatch oil; it is a fundamental to basically every markets move and inter-market correlations. Breaking below $40.00 will be a huge event this week, even if it is expected. The question will be where does it stop? It is a pure speculators market and I have no doubt a few will have deep enough pockets to try and pick a bottom, but, would you stand in front of falling oil prices? I know I would not.\r\n\r\nOil is not just about the CAD, NOK and MXN it is about the USD as well. Watch its movements. It is a great lead indicator…. most of the time!!\r\n\r\nTake care.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\r\n</a>BLOG REF#167','JANET YELLEN DITHERS, MOVES GOAL POSTS  &  CREATES MORE MARKET UNCERTAINTY','','inherit','closed','closed','','6476-revision-v1','','','2015-09-20 06:13:51','2015-09-20 11:13:51','',6476,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/6476-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(6478,1,'2015-09-20 06:15:15','2015-09-20 11:15:15','<h3 style=\"text-align: center;\">THE PREMIUM SERVICE\r\nfrom the\r\nWEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU\r\n“The Home of Single Lot Trading”</h3>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li><strong>THE VIEW FROM MY TRADE DESK:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nLOOKING BACKWARDS, FORWARDS &amp; SIDEWAYS (FOR GOOD MEASURE) AT THE FX MARKET:\r\n\r\n1.1: LOOKING BACKWARDS:\r\n\r\nWell the FOMC didn’t move on rates. Have they missed the moment? I think possibly?\r\n\r\nMonday through Wednesday was very calm. The last 48 hours of the week were really busy. Thursday running up to the announcement, I was at my desk early for the SNB non-event and then I spent time exiting profitable USD related trades and managing my way out of negative USD related trades in readiness for the FED announcement.\r\n\r\nThen it was just a roller-coaster ride…..\r\n\r\nI know that there was other news last week, but it’s all just gone blank. The Fed decision dominated my thoughts running up to the announcement and it looks like it has blanked my memory as well. I think that my mind is a blank because I just could not believe what I was hearing, and my thought process was in confused mode. If I were a computer I would have pressed CTRL-ALT-DELETE and re-booted. I think that this is what caused my memory loss from earlier in the week. It wasn’t due to alcohol abuse at all, my wife was sun bathing in the garden and never came into the office with a “Jack and Diet” or a “Glass of Pinot”, which she often does on FED days.\r\n\r\nI have written my own views on the so-called “Historic Day”. This is in section 2, later in this blog.\r\n\r\nApart from the SNB non-event and the FOMC, the only other news that resonates with me, were the sound-bytes out of the BOE. Some MPC members were on the Reuters news wires talking about loosening rather than tightening monetary policy. Very interesting.\r\n\r\nAs a FUNDAMENTAL trader this is a development upon which, I need to seek further clarification over the coming days.\r\n\r\nI get the feeling that there are some very anxious fund managers and institutional investors dotted around the four corners of the world who will be very tentatively pouring out their cornflakes over the weekend reading the newspapers etc. This will be a developing story and one I will sink my teeth into in my own style moving forward.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n1.2: LOOKING FORWARDS:\r\n\r\nMAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:\r\n\r\n(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market other than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to <a href=\"http://www.forexfactory.com\">www.forexfactory.com</a> and <a href=\"http://www.tradingeconomics.com\">www.tradingeconomics.com</a> for a more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).\r\nSUNDAY: EUR - Greece Parliamentary Election.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: CAD – BOC Stephen Poloz…speaks.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: CNY – Flash Manufacturing PMi.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: EUR – French &amp; German Flash Manufacturing PMi.\r\nWEDNESDAY: CAD – Core Retail Sales.\r\nWEDNESDAY: EUR - ECB Mario Draghi… speaks.\r\nWEDNESDAY: NZD – Trade Balance.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: USD – Janet Yellen… speaks.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: USD - GDP.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMY THOUGHTS ON THE NEWS ITEMS THIS COMING WEEK:\r\n\r\nI find it incredible. A few months ago the news of a Greek election would have pretty much dominated the headlines. Well, here we are with an election happening today, (Sunday 20<sup>th</sup> September 2015) and, its not making any headlines at all.\r\n\r\nThe Syriza and New Democracy (ND) parties are running neck and neck. Alexis Tsipras’s popularity as Prime Minister has plummeted from over 60% to around 30%. I believe that had one of the more radical parties, like the “Golden Dawn” the Greek nationalist party or the Greek Communist Party (KKE) been able to draw more than 5% in the polls we may have seen some news about Greece on the TV and on the news wires.\r\n\r\nThere are quite a few parties standing and the outcome looks likely to be a hung parliament. The big question will be of course, can Antonis Samaras, leader of the New Democracy or Tsipras’s, radical left coalition work together in a government collation? Personally, I doubt it. Then the question is, can a workable majority be formed by coalitions with the smaller parties, probably not enough seats to enable a workable majority, given the many factions that co-exist within the political parties inside Greece.\r\n\r\nWill a minority government work? I doubt that as well. Therefore, it looks to me that as Greece may not return a majority government…. uncertainty rules.\r\n\r\nFrom a trading perspective, this could set up some nice EUR trades.\r\n\r\nWe also have some central banker talk this week. In the following order we have comments due from, Stephen Poloz from the BOC, Mario Draghi from the ECB and the “ditherer” from the FED.\r\n\r\nGoing sideways for a paragraph or three…\r\n\r\nThese people are now perceived by the media and the markets and by some of them themselves as “Rock Stars”. They certainly have the power to control and influence; we have seen this increase since the financial crisis of 2008-2009.It won’t be too long before their status and power is taken to the next level.\r\n\r\nCould you imagine the following music being played for each central bank president or governor as they walk into the monetary policy meeting with dry ice machines in full operation? : -\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>Graeme Wheeler (RBNZ) – I Can’t Explain by The Who.</li>\r\n	<li>Mario Draghi (ECB) – I Have The Touch by Peter Gabriel.</li>\r\n	<li>Mark Carney (BOE) – Queen Bitch by David Bowie.</li>\r\n	<li>Stephen Poloz (BOC) – Dazed and Confused by Led Zeppelin.</li>\r\n	<li>Janet Yellen (FED) – She’s So Cold by The Rolling Stones.</li>\r\n	<li>Glen Stevens (RBA) – Cigarettes and Alcohol by Oasis.</li>\r\n	<li>Thomas Jordan (SNB) – Breaking All The Rules by Peter Frampton.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nIt would certainly bring more theatre to the monetary policy statement meetings and take the focus away from the colour of the tie being worn.\r\n\r\nGetting back on track…\r\n\r\nFollowing the FOMC no rate hike, I think that anything that is said now by central bank governors will be dissected word by word in as much detail as if it were one of those biology lessons you had as a child in school, taking a frog apart.\r\n\r\nI think we as traders should be on our guard and ready for fireworks if policy is to be discussed or questions answered at any of these events.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMY KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS THIS WEEK FOR USD MAJORS<strong>:</strong>\r\n\r\n(All of my thoughts / ideas / support / resistance levels are noted on the charts below. As always I have cleaned these charts as much as possible to try to enable the viewer to see what I am talking about, without tens of indicators clouding the screen. If you want charts with indicators galore just ask me, they are available on request).\r\n\r\nEUR/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.1301\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURUSD-DAILY-19092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6459\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURUSD-DAILY-19092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"EURUSD DAILY 19092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.5532\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GBPUSD-DAILY-19092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6458\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GBPUSD-DAILY-19092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"GBPUSD DAILY 19092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.7191\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/AUDUSD-DAILY-19092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6460\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/AUDUSD-DAILY-19092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"AUDUSD DAILY 19092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.6412\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/NZDUSD-DAILY-19092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6468\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/NZDUSD-DAILY-19092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"NZDUSD DAILY 19092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.3224\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCAD-DAILY-19092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6457\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCAD-DAILY-19092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"USDCAD DAILY 19092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF - Weekly Closing Price: 0.9689\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCHF-DAILY-19092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6456\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCHF-DAILY-19092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"USDCHF DAILY 19092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY - Weekly Closing Price: 120.00\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDJPY-DAILY-19092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6455\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDJPY-DAILY-19092015-1024x538.png\" alt=\"USDJPY DAILY 19092015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n1.3: LOOKING SIDEWAYS (FOR GOOD MEASURE):\r\n\r\nThis week, I want to give an example of two trades I took on Friday morning last week.\r\n\r\nThere were some crazy moves in the last 27 hours of the week’s trading hours. I hope that most of my subscribers took heed of the warnings and traded a little smaller position sizes to avoid being caught on the wrong side of trades, which, lets face facts given the moves you could have been. Equity traders probably took a greater beating than Forex traders this time.\r\n\r\nThere certainly were some spectacular moves.\r\n\r\nThe major pair that I want to focus on (I am going to ignore cross-rates etc) is the USD/CAD.\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>Thursday after Janet Yellen announced that rates were not moving it dropped like a lead balloon from 1.3196 to 1.3070 (126 pips).</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>Then it bounced back from 1.3070 to 1.3188 (118 pips). Pretty much a full and complete recovery.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>Overnight Thursday into Friday it hardly moved until the European session. It then fell from 1.3180 to 1.3017 just after CPi data at 0830AM EDT (163 pips).</li>\r\n	<li>After CPi data it then rallied from 1.3017 to 1.3228 (211 pips).</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThese were phenomenal moves and quite frankly, impossible to predict, what a 27 hours, and considering for about 8/9 hours of the 27 hours it went sideways in a 20-pip range, quite staggering.\r\n\r\nIn the background on Friday prior to CAD CPi being released OIL was dropping in price and so was the USD/CAD, the correlation in pricing broken. Then later on in the day as oil was still falling the USD/CAD resumed it’s correlation and the CAD$ weakened at quite a pace playing catch-up.\r\n\r\nFor Forex Traders to be successful and seek longevity in trading we carve out high probability trades from chart patterns in conjunction with a macro level view of the FUNDAMENTAL economic data. In conjunction with this we have lead indicators that guide us and give us an edge to our trades.\r\n\r\nMy lead indicators are: -\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>OIL</li>\r\n	<li>GOLD</li>\r\n	<li>COPPER</li>\r\n	<li>USD/CAD</li>\r\n	<li>AUD/USD</li>\r\n	<li>AUD/JPY</li>\r\n	<li>USD/SEK</li>\r\n	<li>I ALSO REVIEW MY FX PRESSURE CHARTS</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nMy daily routine is to look at these and using multi screens these are my “EDGE” to my selection of trades. They provide me with directional trends and probabilities based on inter-market correlations (I wrote several articles in the autumn/fall of 2013 / spring 2014 about how correlations do matter in Forex Trading).\r\n\r\nI am not saying that I have the “Holy Grail” of Forex Trading, but I am saying that this works for me. In conjunction with my TRADING PLAN, everyone needs a plan, if you don\'t have a plan, as far as I am concerned you would be trading like a headless chicken.\r\n\r\nOn Friday morning, Oil was falling…. so was the USD/CAD. My pressure charts were so RED regarding trading this pair, there was so much money buying CAD$ it would have been crazy to step in and take a trade USD/CAD long.\r\n\r\nAs soon as the CAD CPi data came through, which was in line with expectations, the pair which by this stage was so oversold and below 8/9-trend line support it was prime for bounce. As soon as buyers of the USD appeared, oil was still falling and my charts went a little green I entered long in two different broker accounts. From divergent RSI (Relative Strength Indicators) the oversold conditions were so extreme buyers were leaping in.\r\n\r\nThis was a high probability trade based off severe over-selling; breaking a long established trend line. The selling was so extreme it was bound to overshoot. On two trades I entered before the pair bottomed, and my goal was 20-30 pip trades, as I expected no more than that. The pair rallied 211 pips from the lows to highs; I missed about 150 pips of the move.\r\n\r\nJust for the record, oil dropped 4.7% on the day and closed at $44.68 a barrel. I am still in the camp that Supply and Demand works (My old Economics lecturers “Woodsie and Tossa” would be proud, if they are still alive?), oil has sub $40.00 written all over it.\r\n\r\nBack to the trade…\r\n\r\nDid I do well?\r\n\r\nI am not looking for a pat on the back.\r\n\r\nI watched the pair move lower.\r\n\r\nI checked my correlations / lead indicators / pressure charts / identified on my charts key support levels whether they be horizontal support areas or Fibonacci levels.\r\n\r\nI looked at the next level lower to establish my RISK.\r\n\r\nI created what I call my “ACTIVE ZONE” (This is where if I feel the trade is right I will establish my trade).\r\n\r\nI established my target / limit zones.\r\n\r\nThese were FLASH TRADES (as I call them) anything between 10 and 50 pips but mostly I like 20-30 pip objectives.\r\n\r\nWhen the oil price darted lower, the entry-level indicators on my pressure charts were green for go and I went long at two different places in two different broker accounts.\r\n\r\nYes, looking back I could have taken 50% off my position size when the trade reached my target area then moved my stop to breakeven and let the trade run. At the time the volatility was so great, and my plan had been set long before the trade commenced I knew what I was going to do and I did it.\r\n\r\nAs I stated earlier I am not looking for a pat on the back. Not all trades no matter how well thought out run as planned/hoped. But you need to have the mindset to seek out high probability trades so that the numbers of successful trades outweigh the loss making ones.\r\n\r\nMy point with this example of a trade that was undertaken is that Forex trading has to be thought out, even under high pressure, which, Friday morning definitely was.\r\n\r\nAs long as you can identify high probability trades and set in place via your TRADING PLAN your routine required, the critical success factors that must be met to make the trade happen… then… you stand a chance of succeeding with longevity as long as you apply RISK MANAGEMENT to your POSITION SIZING.\r\n\r\nI identified the USD/CAD long as a high probability trade to look at.\r\n\r\nMy RISK/REWARD was established before the trade.\r\n\r\nMy entry/exits were zoned on my charts before I entered.\r\n\r\nI was checking all my lead indicators all the time on my screens to give me the green for go.\r\n\r\nThe routine is the same for my FUNDAMENTAL or RADAR trades. The major difference is that they are not as time pressured with eyes tracking 6 screens. They are pre-meditated trades.\r\n\r\nForex trading is a business. It is you versus the world. Every EDGE you have gets you a notch closer to having more profitable trades than losing ones. To be disciplined at all times is the key to success in my opinion.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n	<li><strong> WHAT’S ON MY MIND:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">This week’s main blog title is…</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>JANET YELLEN DITHERS, MOVES GOAL POSTS</strong>\r\n<strong> &amp;</strong>\r\n<strong> CREATES MORE MARKET UNCERTAINTY</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Last week’s main blog article title was….</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>WILL THE FOMC DITHER</strong>\r\n<strong> OR</strong>\r\n<strong> WILL YELLEN DELIVER THE PUNCH?</strong></p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nWhat can I say?\r\n\r\nI am originally from Liverpool. I could write for hours this week. To keep this short and focused with what is running through my brain will be difficult…. but I will try.\r\n\r\nI have listened to and read so many comments, both financial and political about the FOMC announcement last Thursday that my brain hurts.\r\n\r\nFor the love of God, this is dithering…this is moving the goal posts because the FOMC is sh*t scarred of making an error.\r\n\r\nTo blame the emerging markets and/or China for the FED not raising rates, is in my opinion utter boll**cks. All of the American commentators and analysts were in full voice shouting at the TV stating that the FED has to consider the world position and is now the banker for the world, because world global economies are so under-performing…. blah, blah fecking blah.\r\n\r\nThe FED has a mandate on inflation, interest rates and employment.\r\n\r\nIt never considered any other country when Ben Bernanke flooded the U.S. economy with cash and went on a bond-buying spree dropping wedges of $100 bills into New York and Chicago.\r\n\r\nSure there are global risks, for God’s sake there always are.\r\n\r\nNow as I read it, the FED mandate also includes managing “Asset Prices” because that is essentially what Janet Yellen has indicated through her very/extremely dovish stance.\r\n\r\nShe talks a lot about inflation and the FED target rate of 2%. She wants to see inflation approaching this level. Well excuse me for saying, but there isn’t a central banker on the planet right now or any ex. Central bank governor or president alive who knows how to increase the inflation levels within an economy.\r\n\r\nIf this is going to be a stumbling block we will never see rates rise at all for years. ZIRP is the new normal.\r\n\r\nAll this forward guidance counted for nothing. It’s OK when moving lower with rates, all the cuddles are handed out to all areas of the market… we love you guys, we will accommodate the markets we will support you. Providing forward guidance when trying to raise rates is virtually, if not, completely impossible as the FED cannot state on what date interest rates will increase and by how much. Goals and objectives were set out but now these are fudged and the goal posts moved.\r\n\r\nThe FOMC played Wall Street. However, Main Street must be thinking, Holy Mother of God, 7 years of zero interest rates and the FED can’t even put 0.25% on the board. How unstable and fragile is our economy? Can it still be this bad after 7 years, not even 0.25%? Consumer confidence numbers will be interesting to gauge moving forward.\r\n\r\nThis is dithering. Janet Yellen knows she can’t influence inflation. This is a red herring.\r\n\r\nShe has created the very thing she says she wants to rid the markets of…UNCERTAINTY.\r\n\r\nThe markets initial response was reversed and then reversed again and then reversed once more… thank God the FED wants stability!!\r\n\r\nFor once, I actually believed that the markets had all but priced in this rate rise. The world reaction was surprise. Even the BOE had MPC members quoting loosening rather than tightening last Friday. Talk about an about turn.\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, Yellen has created great uncertainty and by introducing a host of outside factors in the melting pot, the decision on rates increasing this year is not 100% certain.\r\n\r\nWhat does this do for longer-term trading plans?\r\n\r\nWell my thoughts and my plan are on hold for now. I need to gather more information and more data and see the markets reaction to this non-move.\r\n\r\nI could only imagine what Mario Draghi felt like at 3.15PM EDT last Thursday with the EUR/USD at 1.1450. I would say not comfortable.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:\r\n</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n3.1: SUMMARY OF YEAR TO DATE PERFORMANCE - 2015:\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">PREMIUM SERVICE – COST INCOME ANALYSIS (USD):</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">EMANATING FROM TRADE SET-UPS – to September 18th 2015</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">MICRO LOT TRADER - 489 trades cost to trade = $48.90\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 489 trades = <strong>$803.30</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">MINI LOT TRADER - 489 trades cost to trade = $489.00\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 489 trades = <strong>$8,033.00</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">STANDARD LOT TRADER - 489 trades cost to trade = $4,890.00\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 489 trades = <strong>$80,330.00</strong></p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n3.2: PREMIUM SERVICE – TRADE SUMMARIES MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PREM-SERV-PROFITS1-19092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6450\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PREM-SERV-PROFITS1-19092015.png\" alt=\"PREM SERV PROFITS1 19092015\" width=\"462\" height=\"417\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PREM-SERV-PROFITS2-19092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6451\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PREM-SERV-PROFITS2-19092015.png\" alt=\"PREM SERV PROFITS2 19092015\" width=\"471\" height=\"411\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNOTES:\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>If the above return from Forex Trading interests you go to my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> and check out the subscription options and special promotions under the tabs “PREMIUM SERVICE” and “PROMOTIONS”</li>\r\n	<li>The performance above is based off single-lot trade sizes.</li>\r\n	<li>THE PREMIUM SERVICE has subscribers with broker accounts of sizes ranging from $2,500 to over $100,000. A profitable trade is a profitable trade. It is all about trading according to the size of your broker account (EFFECTIVE POSITION SIZING) and applying RISK MANAGEMENT principles at all times.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) SUBSCRIBER CONTENT:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(The following section is additional data, thoughts, and ideas exclusively for PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) subscribers)\r\n\r\n4.1: THE PREMIUM SERVICE – TRADING REVIEW &amp; LOOKING FORWARD:\r\n\r\n4.2: MAJOR TRADING PAIRS WITH LONGER-TERM MATCHING TRENDS:\r\n\r\n4.3: THE PREMIUM SERVICE - LIVE TRADES ARE:\r\n\r\n4.4: THE PREMIUM SERVICE – LIMIT ORDER TRADES ARE:\r\n\r\n4.5: POTENTIAL TRADES - WHAT PAIRS / CHARTS AM I LOOKING AT?\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n	<li><strong> MY FINAL THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nOVERVIEW OF TRADING TIPS &amp; THOUGHTS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD:\r\n\r\nWe have to trade smart this week and allow the dust to settle.\r\n\r\nMany of the big institutional investors were either squared off ahead of the FOMC or not 100% back at their trade desks following the summer break, knowing that this FOMC meeting was so important they did not want to establish prior positions.\r\n\r\nWe need to allow these movers back into the market and then plan.\r\n\r\nWithout doubt the smart money was in cash ahead of the FOMC decision and this cash being re-introduced will affect how the markets move forward together with central bank reaction around the globe. We have Poloz and Draghi scheduled this week and based upon the fact BOE MPC members were chomping at the bit to speak last Friday do not be surprised to hear Mark Carney utter a few sentences.\r\n\r\nWe are in news driven, central banker environment right now so we need to trade cleverly, whether you are a scalper, medium term swing or longer-term position trader.\r\n\r\nWatch oil; it is a fundamental to basically every markets move and inter-market correlations. Breaking below $40.00 will be a huge event this week, even if it is expected. The question will be where does it stop? It is a pure speculators market and I have no doubt a few will have deep enough pockets to try and pick a bottom, but, would you stand in front of falling oil prices? I know I would not.\r\n\r\nOil is not just about the CAD, NOK and MXN it is about the USD as well. Watch its movements. It is a great lead indicator…. most of the time!!\r\n\r\nTake care.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\r\n</a>BLOG REF#167','JANET YELLEN DITHERS, MOVES GOAL POSTS  &  CREATES MORE MARKET UNCERTAINTY','','inherit','closed','closed','','6476-revision-v1','','','2015-09-20 06:15:15','2015-09-20 11:15:15','',6476,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/6476-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(6505,1,'2015-09-27 08:57:36','2015-09-27 13:57:36','<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>THE PREMIUM SERVICE</strong>\r\n<strong>from the</strong>\r\n<strong>WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU</strong>\r\n<strong>“The Home of Single Lot Trading”</strong></p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li><strong> THE VIEW FROM MY TRADE DESK:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nLOOKING BACKWARDS, FORWARDS &amp; SIDEWAYS (FOR GOOD MEASURE) AT THE FX MARKET:\r\n\r\n1.1: LOOKING BACKWARDS:\r\n\r\nFollowing the FOMC hold on September 17<sup>th</sup>, last week was the time that I felt it important to concentrate on the speeches given by central bank presidents / governors. We had Poloz (BOC), Draghi (ECB) and further comments from Janet Yellen.\r\n\r\nPoloz, I feel is totally detached from reality at times. In Canada we are a month away from a general election and I feel he is just a pawn right now trying to keep things together. The Canadian economy is in the sh*t. There is low confidence and great uncertainty about what party will be triumphant at the election in under a month. There will be a rate cut happening very soon in an attempt to kick start matters, and I would say sooner rather than later. Canada is NOT the USA. It borders the USA but that is about it. The USA is not yet a commodity currency but the Canadian is. There is a wealth of commodities over and above oil in Canada. Oil may be dominant and trendy in the headlines right now and having a great effect on the “loonie”, which, we should not lose sight of.\r\n\r\nThe fact is oil has a massive supply and demand issue, which is not going away and as a result of this the price of oil will be under constant scrutiny and downward pressures. This creates doom and gloom on the TV news and lowers consumer confidence in the economy.\r\n\r\nIf there was no election, I feel that Poloz would have cut last time around. The cut is coming in my opinion at either the next meeting due on the 21<sup>st</sup> October, two days after the election on the 19<sup>th</sup> October, or the one following just in time to boost Christmas spending in the malls / stores and shops.\r\n\r\nBack to his speech…. If you could imagine touching the wettest fish, from the darkest deepest parts of the ocean, you are coming close. It was a non-committal boring non-event. Looking at the BOC web site he has a few opportunities prior to the BOC rate announcement to inspire and motivate us…. lets see.\r\n\r\nDraghi spoke to the European Parliament; the word on the street was that he would be very dovish about extensions to quantitative easing (QE); the reality was completely different. He was very matter of fact and basically kept matters low key, nothing new.\r\n\r\nThen we had an eventful Janet Yellen speech in Boston, from which, she had dehydration issues and it looked like she stopped her speech early. Thankfully, from a health perspective she was able to keep to her business schedule. From a market perspective this time she was hawkish.\r\n\r\nI am getting a little confused with the FED at the moment. Yellen appears to use dialogue that has the markets confused. I think that she is relatively consistent but the markets require everything on a platter. I think she has to imagine that she was talking to a four-year old child so that it is easy for the likes of Wall Street to understand.\r\n\r\nHer dialogue is not being understood. Maybe, if the key sentences were tattooed on a stripper’s chest or bottom, the key words and phrases would be read, because right now I feel Wall Street does not listen or maybe quite possibly just doesn’t understand.\r\n\r\nI am still confused why 12 out of the 14 voting members are in favour of an interest rate increase before the end of 2015, could be treated as dovish. I know it’s all about the headlines in her speeches and how the media strikes the balance. Maybe as I said, if the key messages were delivered via a stripper’s bottom or chest, people might take more notice and these messages might be read more closely and perhaps even understood.\r\n\r\nI know the key deliverables in the speeches are the headlines but all the clues are there. I do think that Janet Yellen has a part to play here. It is a game with the media because all the media wants is news and if they cannot get news on facts who cares, they will create news based upon a loosely collated bundle of snippets and off the story goes factual or not.\r\n\r\nI am not advocating that Janet Yellen walks chair to chair lap dancing with the key deliverable’s tattooed to parts of her body…Holy Mother of God there’s a picture to ruin your Sunday Lunch, in fact, any meal time…my God it could sour milk. What I am saying is maybe she should do a Monty Python style arm gesture when something important is about to be said that the media should take note of. From my perspective it will certainly get more interest and its better than counting how many fecking times she says the word transitory.\r\n\r\nGetting back on track….\r\n\r\nShe was hawkish in Boston but I think all the hawkish stuff has been there for months, the media has just not found it sexy enough to focus on. They have rather glibly clung to the question of when are rates increasing, rather than concentrating on what the effects are going to be when they go up. I know, my focus on debating the effects may not sell many commercials on TV (unless my stripper idea caught on of course) but the FED is giving away all the clues via all the economic papers it releases. We are being fed headlines, which the media believes to be sexy news. We as traders need to look behind these.\r\n\r\nApart from the “bank heads” talk, nothing else really took my attention in the past week.\r\n\r\nBiggest non-news event of the week: -\r\n\r\nTHE GREEK ELECTION – Tsipras and his party have about 60 days to pass 80% of the conditions of the latest bailout through parliament. The creditors front ran all the deadline dates because they do not trust GREECE.\r\n\r\nWatch this space the “Greek Bailout Act IV” coming soon….\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n1.2: LOOKING FORWARDS:\r\n\r\nMAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:\r\n\r\n(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market other than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to <a href=\"http://www.forexfactory.com\">www.forexfactory.com</a> and <a href=\"http://www.tradingeconomics.com\">www.tradingeconomics.com</a> for a more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).\r\nSUNDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: USD – Consumer Confidence.\r\nTUESDAY: NZD – ANZ Business Confidence.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – ADP Non-Farm Employment Change.\r\nWEDNESDAY: CAD – GDP.\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – Janet Yellen (FED) speaks… make sure she has water!\r\nWEDNESDAY: CNY – PMi data.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: AUD – Retail Sales.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: USD – Non-Farm Payrolls.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMY THOUGHTS ON THE NEWS ITEMS THIS COMING WEEK:\r\n\r\nObviously, the biggie is Friday’s US jobs report and I believe that this will dominate all the media during the week. It will in all probability be based around the topic of “Will the FED hike? or won’t the FED hike?”, based on the job numbers. I am really poor at guessing what the numbers will be and what the immediate market reaction will be and frankly that is what it is, just a guess and I am not playing anymore. I hate NFP days, I have more failures than successes on NFP days and I hate them. I think this Friday will be the day to start the next blog early!!\r\n\r\nApart from NFP, consumer and business confidence numbers on Tuesday from the US and New Zealand is always worth noting and on Wednesday we have Chinese PMI data.\r\n\r\nThursday evening (for me) Australian retail sales will be a mover in spite of NFP following within 12 hours.\r\n\r\nI am writing about my FUNDAMENTAL views later in this blog and these are basically the key news events for me based upon my trading plan through to the year-end.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMY KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS THIS WEEK FOR USD MAJORS<strong>:\r\n</strong>In this section I have as usual kept my charts as minimalist as possible. All readers regardless of level of experience should be able to follow my thoughts from my comments to the levels on the charts with ease.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nEUR/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.1191\r\n\r\nWe are basically in a trading range from the lows of 1.1085 to 1.1460. If you enjoy range trading, happy days! If you are waiting for a breakout and a momentum trade, we will require a big moving news event to enable this to happen in my opinion. This Friday we have Non-Farm payrolls from the U.S., this may be the catalyst required.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURUSDDaily27092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6493\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURUSDDaily27092015.png\" alt=\"EURUSDDaily27092015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.5170\r\n\r\nUnder pressure from all sides, the cable looked to be at the edge of a cliff last Friday. There is good support ahead at the 61.8% retracement Fibonacci level of 1.5085. After this 1.5000 will obviously provide something as a nice round psychological number, however I fear that the cable could be heading a great deal lower. I hate trading the GBP/USD as it is the master of false moves, and, as soon as you feel that you finally have a trade under control it can quickly reverse on you.\r\n\r\nGiven all the recent talk about the UK possibly raising rates, this now appears to be on the horizon for 2017 (How this can be predicted this far out, amazes me). However, never rule out the best bullsh**ing bank governor out there, “Mark Carney” who can mislead the markets and then jump into his JCB to get himself out of his self produced hole.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GBPUSDWeekly27092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6494\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GBPUSDWeekly27092015.png\" alt=\"GBPUSDWeekly27092015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.7003\r\n\r\nA nice bounce back from a near death experience is the best way to describe the Aussie at the end of last week. Lets face facts all the cards are stacked against this pair not falling towards 0.6500. Commodity prices, China, future (probable) FED monetary policy and the RBA are all doing their bit to weaken this currency. What happens should equities fall as well; in my opinion, a drop to at least 0.6500.\r\n\r\nKey support now lies at 0.6940 and a break below this level exposes a greater downside move.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/AUDUSDDaily27092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6492\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/AUDUSDDaily27092015.png\" alt=\"AUDUSDDaily27092015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.6376\r\n\r\nCross-rate do affect the USD majors. The AUD/NZD, GBP/NZD and EUR/NZD came under tremendous pressure on Friday last week, and this kept the NZD/USD elevated.\r\n\r\nThe currency will be used as toilet paper soon as it is still grossly overvalued and RBNZ still feel it is at levels that are too high.\r\n\r\nWe are presently in a trading range from the lows of 0.6240 to 0.6500 as seen on the chart below. Just above 0.6400 should act as resistance, which should see the downside move return.\r\n\r\nMy longer-term target for this pair is close to 0.5700.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/NZDUSDDaily27092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6495\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/NZDUSDDaily27092015.png\" alt=\"NZDUSDDaily27092015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.3334\r\n\r\nWe saw a false breakout move last Thursday, which saw this pair stretch the upside to 1.3418. Support is good at 1.3300 and I see this as the base now. Moving forward a break lower than 1.3300 makes me feel that the upside breakout could be delayed somewhat. This pair is still very bullish and ultimately I see a 1.4000 level being achieved, but we have to crack 1.3418 first obviously.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCADDaily27092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6496\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCADDaily27092015.png\" alt=\"USDCADDaily27092015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF - Weekly Closing Price: 0.9774\r\n\r\nThis pair is on the cusp of a major move higher, which may go with or without the EUR/USD breaking down. The SNB are in my opinion getting ready to flex those muscles once again. We have a great base now at 0.9650, the 61.8% Fibonacci level. Once this pair breaks through 0.9850 I believe it will be off to parity shortly thereafter and beyond. If the SNB is required to help move the EUR/CHF through 1.1000 this move will benefit all CHF pairs. Premium Service subscribers should note the CHF cross-rate charts later.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCHFDaily27092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6497\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCHFDaily27092015.png\" alt=\"USDCHFDaily27092015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY - Weekly Closing Price: 120.55\r\n\r\nWe are in a wide trading range of 118.75 to 122.00. I think that this pair will be best to trade after the FED rate announcement and when we know the reaction from the equity markets following the announcement. Up until then, I think it will be much a do about nothing with daily chop moves in one direction and then the other.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDJPYDaily27092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6498\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDJPYDaily27092015.png\" alt=\"USDJPYDaily27092015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n1.3: LOOKING SIDEWAYS (FOR GOOD MEASURE):\r\n\r\nI had several communications this week based upon my reference to the KEY INDICATORS that I look at and wrote about last week. So for those readers I am going to elaborate this time around.\r\n\r\nMy lead indicators are: -\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>OIL</li>\r\n	<li>GOLD</li>\r\n	<li>COPPER</li>\r\n	<li>DXY index</li>\r\n	<li>S&amp;P index</li>\r\n	<li>USD/CAD</li>\r\n	<li>AUD/USD</li>\r\n	<li>AUD/JPY</li>\r\n	<li>USD/SEK</li>\r\n	<li>FX PRESSURE CHARTS</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nLead indicators for me are all about trading with an EDGE.\r\n\r\nI will try to answer as best I can the questions raised.\r\n\r\n<u>Why do I have lead indicators? </u>\r\n\r\nThis is because all the markets, precious metals, equities, commodity, bonds and Forex are all inter-linked one way or another. GOLD and OIL are priced in USD and therefore movements in GOLD and OIL will affect the USD.\r\n\r\nIf I see a bullish or bearish move in GOLD, this will have an effect on the USD. Movements in Oil will affect the oil-based economies like Canada, Mexico and Norway and therefore when WTi moves so will the CAD, MXN and NOK.\r\n\r\nMovement in Copper affects so many industries and the AUD currency moves in relation to copper movements amongst general commodity price moves. Copper imports/exports are essential to follow to see if a country is cutting back or expanding. These trends in Copper contribute to PMi and construction data.\r\n\r\nThese factors give me an EDGE.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>Do these indicators matter as much if you are a longer-term trader?</u>\r\n\r\nYes, I believe they matter all the time as all market components have trends, and, trends / momentums / Fibonacci levels matter across all markets whether it\'s a day or potential swing trade set up or even a longer term position that you are looking at.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>What role does the AUD/JPY play?</u>\r\n\r\nWhen there is zero economic data, the equity markets mainly drive the Forex market moves. Correlations do matter and they do count (PREMIUM SERVICE GOLD subscribers can find several articles under the EDUCATION tab on this subject), the AUD/JPY moves are more or less correlated to moves with the S&amp;P index. Therefore if the S&amp;P is under pressure it is more than likely that the AUD/JPY will also be under similar pressure. If they are NOT moving in sync this is a warning to further investigate. This gives me an EDGE.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>What role does the USD/SEK have to play?</u>\r\n\r\nThis Forex pair is very closely correlated to flagging USD movement whether weakness or strength. It is like the USD/CAD it tends to lead the USD, if that makes sense. More often or not if the USD has been weak, if there is USD strength trying to get back into the market the USD/SEK and USD/CAD tend to show the change in sentiment first. They are ahead of the DXY because these currencies are lightly weighted in the index, which is so heavily dominated by the EUR (over 50%). This gives me an EDGE.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>What are pressure charts?</u>\r\n\r\nThese are basically charts that instead of being based on prices, are charts based upon buying and selling. They can help with direction.\r\n\r\nWhen looking at candlesticks say for a 60-minute chart, at the end of the 60 minutes you have a candle created that is either part of a bullish or bearish formation of candles or on its own sets a tone or an indication of what the following candle should look like.\r\n\r\nFor example a “ Hammer” would indicate that for the next period the currency pair should be moving upwards.\r\n\r\nIf I am looking at pressure charts for the same 60-minute period I am seeing the relationship between buyers and sellers develop in the same way during the hour but if there are more buyers than sellers this will highlighted by the pressure charts based upon strength of the buying signals and the commitment to a particular direction. It can make me enter a trade at a better price point without waiting for the candle confirmation. This gives me an EDGE.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>Do I have these lead indicators across all my screens when trading?</u>\r\n\r\nNo, due to limits on space and the numbers of eyes I have, I cannot afford this. I am a trader. I trade almost every day. The lead indicators are my EDGE to my trading. I look at them all as I gather my thoughts for the day and I have the DXY, S&amp;P, Oil and Gold split into four on one screen, with the ability to check Copper and USD/SEK very quickly.\r\n\r\nMy other three screens are used for my currency pairs / brokers and pressure charts focused on Forex.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>What is my start-off routine each day?</u>\r\n\r\nFirst things first, let Ozzy and Aoife (my dogs) out into the back yard and get some coffee going.\r\n\r\nCheck existing OPEN trades if I have not already done so via my iPad prior to getting up. Adjust / advise PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers if required.\r\n\r\nLook at the “Holy Trinity” first… that is GOLD, OIL and COPPER. Note the highs and lows…post-it note on screen or place horizontal lines on screens as well…. depends on my mood.\r\n\r\nCheck the DXY… make a note of highs and lows, and put a Fibonacci level on a 240 or 480-minute chart on the screen.\r\n\r\nCheck the U.S. markets futures, DOW, S&amp;P and Nasdaq and look at the DAX and FTSE.\r\n\r\nMore coffee.\r\n\r\nThen look around all the currency pairs for high probability trades and advise PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers of set-ups and place trades with my brokers.\r\n\r\nIf required send out a few tweets to PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers on what my thoughts are and if they differ from that last communication.\r\n\r\nRead and answer communications from subscribers.\r\n\r\nSettle in for the next 12 hours or so behind the desk.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>Do I look at the Relative Strength Indicator (RSi)?</u>\r\n\r\nYes I do, but I do not consider it the be all and end all of making a trade. There are many instances when the RSi it behind the move. I look at it and sometimes I will pass comment on it to my subscribers when suggesting a trade. However, it is not really an indicator that I use all the time. I will use it more times to prevent me from taking a trade that is borderline with my TRADING PLAN.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nIn summary, my lead indicators may not be your lead indicators and like most things in trading it is “Whatever floats yer boat”.\r\n\r\nIf whatever you do works for you do not change. This works for me and it helps me. Having subscribers helps me focus because I do not want to suggest poor or weak trades. I have to have a good reason why I take any trade, it may not just be based upon a Fibonacci level, which can be enough on many occasions, but maybe a confirmation of an inter-market relationship or correlation as well being there to also support the trade set-up.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n	<li><strong> WHAT’S ON MY MIND:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>THE DIVERGENCE TRADE IS STILL ON</strong>\r\n<strong>and</strong>\r\n<strong>MY FUNDAMENTAL TRADING PLAN THRU TO THE</strong>\r\n<strong>YEAR END IS STILL IN PLAY</strong></p>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nJust prior to my break from trading over the summer I wrote about my FUNDAMENTAL TRADING PLAN and how I envisaged this moving forward given that at that time the FOMC still hadn’t raised rates. In fact, at that stage in July I was very much of the opinion that that the FOMC would hike in September.\r\n\r\nAs we know the FOMC remained on hold…buggers.\r\n\r\nI have been asked by a number of subscribers, after the FOMC hold and another batch of “FED SPEAK”; if my plan is still intact?\r\n\r\nI believe that it is pretty much still there and I have been delaying and delaying getting my trades set up and in position, so that my subscribers and myself are ready to take advantage of the FED move.\r\n\r\nThe core factors to my TRADING PLAN are still intact as far as I am concerned: -\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>The FED is tightening monetary policy.</li>\r\n	<li>Other central banks with the possible exception of the BOE are on a loosening monetary policy.</li>\r\n	<li>China is slowing down.</li>\r\n	<li>Australian and New Zealand economies are under pressure.</li>\r\n	<li>Oil is moving lower. Price expectations being talked about now are even lower than those back in July.</li>\r\n	<li>Commodity prices are still under pressure.</li>\r\n	<li>The SNB is still a loose cannon and could intervene at any time to weaken the CHF back to prior “PEG REMOVAL DAY” levels.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nMy FUNDAMENTAL TRADING PLAN is based around divergence. It is based around trading this divergence.\r\n\r\nI have stated many times before in my blogs that divergence is a strong reason to trade if it stems from central bank monetary policy. My plan until at least the end of the year is based upon such a plan with FED taking the lead.\r\n\r\nIt is based around a strong USD.\r\n\r\nThis will give me trading confidence based on the divergences between central banks FED v ECB, FED v RBA, FED v RBNZ, FED v BOC, FED v BOJ etc.\r\n\r\nIt is not just trading the USD major pairs; the cross-rate pairs are also of great interest once the divergent policy is established.\r\n\r\nAll I want now is for the FED to stop dithering and raise rates so my plan can commence in full swing.\r\n\r\nI have my target levels, for my target pairs already identified. It is now just a matter of time and being patient.\r\n\r\nEven though it is expected that the FOMC will raise rates, the timing is still not in place and to start with the plan now would involve some risk ahead of the announcement of US interest rates increasing. At the same time, there are trades that jump out that will be in line with FED policy that can be established prior to a rate announcement and should not be too badly affected if a further delay is advised.\r\n\r\nOver the coming days I will decide and place my interim strategy on these trades and have them in position knowing in advance when and where I will add to the initial position sizes.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:\r\n</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n3.1: SUMMARY OF YEAR TO DATE PERFORMANCE - 2015:\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">PREMIUM SERVICE – COST INCOME ANALYSIS (USD):</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">EMANATING FROM TRADE SET-UPS – to September 26th 2015.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">MICRO LOT TRADER - 507 trades cost to trade = $50.70\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 507 trades = <strong>$803.30</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">MINI LOT TRADER - 507 trades cost to trade = $507.00\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 507 trades = <strong>$8,033.00</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">STANDARD LOT TRADER - 507 trades cost to trade = $5,070.00\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 507 trades = <strong>$80,330.00</strong></p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n3.2: PREMIUM SERVICE – TRADE SUMMARIES MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PS-PROFITS1-27092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6481\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PS-PROFITS1-27092015.png\" alt=\"PS PROFITS1 27092015\" width=\"451\" height=\"426\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PS-PROFITS2-27092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6482\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PS-PROFITS2-27092015.png\" alt=\"PS PROFITS2 27092015\" width=\"453\" height=\"411\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNOTES:\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>If the above return from Forex Trading interests you go to my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> and check out the subscription options and special promotions under the tabs “PREMIUM SERVICE” and “PROMOTIONS”</li>\r\n	<li>The performance above is based off single-lot trade sizes.</li>\r\n	<li>THE PREMIUM SERVICE has subscribers with broker accounts of sizes ranging from $2,500 to over $100,000. A profitable trade is a profitable trade. It is all about trading according to the size of your broker account (EFFECTIVE POSITION SIZING) and applying RISK MANAGEMENT principles at all times.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) SUBSCRIBER CONTENT:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(The following section is additional data, thoughts, and ideas exclusively for PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) subscribers)\r\n\r\n4.1: THE PREMIUM SERVICE – TRADING REVIEW:\r\n\r\nI sent out an email last Friday about STOPS and TRADE SYTLE DEFINITIONS; I want to elaborate on that email so that every one can understand where I am coming from.\r\n\r\n<u>STOPS:</u>\r\n\r\nWhen I place a trade, the RADAR and FUNDAMENTAL trades are placed with a tweeted confirmation, mostly with a trade chart and then that is followed as soon as I can do it, with an email confirmation.\r\n\r\nI have received a couple of queries over the moving of stops in times of high market volatility to keep trades alive. They have been followed by comments stating that this increases your exposed risk to a particular trade.\r\n\r\nWhen a trade is advised by email it states what percentage of my RISK LIMIT is being placed into the trade at the start of the trade. Below on the example of the excel sheets you receive by email, RT489 states my original RISK is limited to 20% of the maximum I will tolerate under my TRADE PLAN.\r\n\r\nThis allows me to move the stop in times of high volatility. I do not want to have to move the stop, it is not my intention when I set up the trade, but sometimes needs must. The stop, when moved is usually moved to the next Fibonacci level, should this be deemed necessary.\r\n\r\nIf you are part-time and cannot have 100% access to your computer or other device maybe trade smaller positions and look at the trading chart supplied and place your stop at the next Fibonacci level to give you greater flexibility and then when you can next look at your broker account adjust back to my original trade set up.\r\n\r\nFor several months I have been saying trade smaller to limit your risk as this gives greater flexibility. The Forex market this year is more news headline driven than ever and this creates disruption. The markets are not as liquid as previous years, this adds to the volatility and the directional issues that we see almost daily.\r\n\r\nIf you are frustrated that you miss the revised stop announcements because you do not have access to twitter that is one thing, but if you are upset about the stop being moved and this exposes too much risk on your trade your are, in my opinion over-leveraging yourself.\r\n\r\nI know many of you trade with larger position sizes, maybe bigger than you should, but that is your call. I have been saying in many tweets of late if the stop is being moved; reduce your position size to keep within your RISK TOLERANCE levels that you have set out in your TRADE PLAN. If you do not have a TRADE PLAN, go to the EDUCATION tab and look at the examples in that section of the website. I would strongly suggest that you draw one up as soon as possible. This will give you increased focus on your trading moving forward\r\n\r\nThe Forex market is volatile and challenging and longevity in trading will only happen if you retain discipline with your trading.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/RT489-EXCEL-27092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6491\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/RT489-EXCEL-27092015.png\" alt=\"RT489 EXCEL 27092015\" width=\"450\" height=\"583\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>TRADE STYLE DEFINITIONS:</u>\r\n\r\nFor further clarification: -\r\n\r\nRADAR TRADES:\r\n\r\nThese are limit order entry trades when the entry level is pre-meditated based upon a Pivot point, Fibonacci Level or area of confluence. These are high probability trades based on additional information such as chart patterns etc.\r\n\r\nMostly these are trades I expect should run in normal circumstances for at least a day and possibly run into becoming swing trades should the market allow.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nFUNDAMENTAL TRADES:\r\n\r\nThese were originally intended for “Cross-rate” pairs that require greater flexibility with stop loss levels, as these pairs have much larger Average True Ranges (ATR’s) in comparison to say the USD majors.\r\n\r\nThese trades would usually last a few days or even longer. It really depends on market trends. They are best in a trending market and if the market is not trending they tend to flip-flop around and cause more pain and stress than they are worth even though the usual position sizes taken are much smaller than normal trades.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nFLASH TRADES:\r\n\r\nThese are basically what they sound like. These trades are opportunist market trades at the times that a move becomes available. Originally, these were GIMME 10 or GIMME 30 pip trades but they have developed as the market has changed. These trades can also last a day or two like a RADAR TRADE, and sometimes longer than a RADAR TRADE, it all just depends on the market.\r\n\r\nI often use what is called the ”PULLBACK STRATEGY” to determine an entry point with these trades.\r\n\r\nIf you are a part-time trader and not near or don\'t have continued access to your computer screen most of the time FLASH TRADES will not apply. Computer accessibility is required 100% for FLASH TRADES in my opinion. This means that RADAR and FUNDAMENTAL trades are your concentration areas.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nIf you need help on assessing your RISK TOLERANCES per trade or how to gauge the next stop level so as to have flexibility to remain in a trade please contact me.\r\n\r\nLooking at the trades over the past week, you can see it is difficult at the moment. The market moves are sometimes just news driven, which is fine but when it outweighs events it does throw up some weird and sometimes unexplainable Forex moves. One or two of you ask what made a certain move happen, as there was no visible news or event to manufacture such a move.\r\n\r\nSometimes it can just be a thin trading, illiquid time and an institution or muscle bank places a big order and a knee-jerk reaction takes place. I think we have had two or three of these events last week and this resulted in moving stops.\r\n\r\nI do not want to repeat myself too much, but if you go into the trade with just a little bit of tolerance “in your back pocket” so to speak, it gives you just a little bit of capacity to soak up the added volatility. This is why I am rarely more than 25% invested in my initial trades. You can always add to existing trades with new positions and move stops on the original trades to cover.\r\n\r\nThe markets have re-invented themselves again, the environment has changed this year over last and we seem to have been in transition mode for some time waiting on the FED. We have to as traders, adjust to lower volumes, increased volatility and an increasing number of squeezes. POSITION SIZING is in my opinion the only way to adopt and this manages your risk exposure at the same time to give you greater flexibility.\r\n\r\nWith all that said the PREMIUM SERVICE doubled it’s net monthly income last week for the month of September and the ratio of profitable trades to loss making trades improved. Something is being done correctly and we move forward.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.2: MAJOR TRADING PAIRS WITH LONGER-TERM MATCHING TRENDS:\r\n(The following currency pairs have Short Term (DAILY), Medium Term (WEEKLY) and Long Term (MONTHLY) charts all trending in the same direction).\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PS-TRENDING-PAIRS-27092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6490\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PS-TRENDING-PAIRS-27092015.png\" alt=\"PS TRENDING PAIRS 27092015\" width=\"490\" height=\"614\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.3: THE PREMIUM SERVICE - LIVE TRADES ARE:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PS-LIVE-TRADES-27092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6489\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PS-LIVE-TRADES-27092015.png\" alt=\"PS LIVE TRADES 27092015\" width=\"716\" height=\"570\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.4: THE PREMIUM SERVICE – LIMIT ORDER TRADES ARE:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PS-LIMIT-ORDERS-27092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6488\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PS-LIMIT-ORDERS-27092015.png\" alt=\"PS LIMIT ORDERS 27092015\" width=\"698\" height=\"447\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.5: POTENTIAL TRADES - WHAT PAIRS / CHARTS AM I LOOKING AT?\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF pair interest me greatly at the present time.\r\n\r\nThe CHF currency I believe is prime for a severe weakening. I would NOT rule out Thomas Jordan (SNB) having another 2015 moment. I believe the fact that the EUR/CHF has not gathered momentum to stick above 1.1000 is causing a few murmurings in Zurich. Do not rule out a central bank intervening move. The USD/CHF is poised to make a stab at parity, this may be the catalyst for the SNB to bite the bullet on the EUR/CHF and maybe introduce another floor.\r\n\r\nBelow I have charts of the GBP/CHF, AUD/CHF and NZD/CHF all of which show great support levels from where to base trades from.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/NZDCHFDaily270920151.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6504\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/NZDCHFDaily270920151.png\" alt=\"NZDCHFDaily27092015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/AUDCHFDaily27092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6500\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/AUDCHFDaily27092015.png\" alt=\"AUDCHFDaily27092015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GBPCHFDaily27092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6499\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GBPCHFDaily27092015.png\" alt=\"GBPCHFDaily27092015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe “Loonie” had a false breakout last week but I feel that it will only be a matter of time before another attempt to blast through 1.3400 occurs. I have the NZD/CAD chart below, this has been on my RADAR for a little while now having been brought to my attention a couple of weeks ago. I am waiting for the CAD and the NZD to move in line with their longer-term trends then I want to focus on this pair. The daily chart is below, which shows a range of 0.8300 to 0.8625 being the outer limits that I would want to target.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/NZDCADDaily27092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6503\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/NZDCADDaily27092015.png\" alt=\"NZDCADDaily27092015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe AUD/NZD: I lost 177 pips on a trade last week. I would not usually let a trade run this far but I was convinced that the NZD weakness would overrule the AUD weakness. This never happened as we all know, and in fact, the move lower with this pair was exacerbated by the cross rate effects of the EUR/NZD and GBP/NZD resulting in the AUD/NZD holding up a white flag on Thursday/Friday last week. The chart below looks like 1.0900 could the resting place for this move lower and could be the area from which to establish a long trade.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/AUDNZDMonthly27092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6502\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/AUDNZDMonthly27092015.png\" alt=\"AUDNZDMonthly27092015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n	<li><strong> MY FINAL THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nOVERVIEW OF TRADING TIPS &amp; THOUGHTS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD:\r\n\r\nLast week was a difficult week. I still cannot explain to myself why some of the FX moves happened and why. I suppose at the end of the day, it’s nice to know, but it’s not essential as all we have to do is react and remain calm and in control to the best of our abilities.\r\n\r\nIn times when the markets are difficult, I sometimes have the best performances and last week was one of those, my subscriber trading business, the premium service, doubled its September income last week.\r\n\r\nHow did this happen in such a difficult week?\r\n\r\nQuite simple, it was increased flexibility, not trading to full risk tolerance at the outset of the trade. That means not trading a full-size position. Keeping a little in reserve meant that risk management principles remained intact and trade plan objectives were not broken.\r\n\r\nI believe that until the FOMC stops all this nonsense on dithering and makes a decision to raise the FED minimum rate, we will continue to be news driven and those are the worst markets to trade inside. Many times we trade on a lie, complete fiction.\r\n\r\nIf we remain flexible as traders, we stand a good chance of reaching a point when we can achieve longevity in trading and provide an income.\r\n\r\nWe still have thin trading conditions too many times in my opinion and until this changes we need to trade with this in mind.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nTake care.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nhttps://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/','THE DIVERGENCE TRADE IS STILL ON','','publish','open','closed','','the-divergence-trade-is-still-on','','','2015-09-27 08:57:36','2015-09-27 13:57:36','',0,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?post_type=member_posts&#038;p=6505',0,'member_posts','',0),(6506,1,'2015-09-26 16:39:06','2015-09-26 21:39:06','<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>THE PREMIUM SERVICE</strong>\r\n<strong>from the</strong>\r\n<strong>WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU</strong>\r\n<strong>“The Home of Single Lot Trading”</strong></p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li><strong> THE VIEW FROM MY TRADE DESK:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nLOOKING BACKWARDS, FORWARDS &amp; SIDEWAYS (FOR GOOD MEASURE) AT THE FX MARKET:\r\n\r\n1.1: LOOKING BACKWARDS:\r\n\r\nFollowing the FOMC hold on September 17<sup>th</sup>, last week was the time that I felt it important to concentrate on the speeches given by central bank presidents / governors. We had Poloz (BOC), Draghi (ECB) and further comments from Janet Yellen.\r\n\r\nPoloz, I feel is totally detached from reality at times. In Canada we are a month away from a general election and I feel he is just a pawn right now trying to keep things together. The Canadian economy is in the sh*t. There is low confidence and great uncertainty about what party will be triumphant at the election in under a month. There will be a rate cut happening very soon in an attempt to kick start matters, and I would say sooner rather than later. Canada is NOT the USA. It borders the USA but that is about it. The USA is not yet a commodity currency but the Canadian is. There is a wealth of commodities over and above oil in Canada. Oil may be dominant and trendy in the headlines right now and having a great effect on the “loonie”, which, we should not lose sight of.\r\n\r\nThe fact is oil has a massive supply and demand issue, which is not going away and as a result of this the price of oil will be under constant scrutiny and downward pressures. This creates doom and gloom on the TV news and lowers consumer confidence in the economy.\r\n\r\nIf there was no election, I feel that Poloz would have cut last time around. The cut is coming in my opinion at either the next meeting due on the 21<sup>st</sup> October, two days after the election on the 19<sup>th</sup> October, or the one following just in time to boost Christmas spending in the malls / stores and shops.\r\n\r\nBack to his speech…. If you could imagine touching the wettest fish, from the darkest deepest parts of the ocean, you are coming close. It was a non-committal boring non-event. Looking at the BOC web site he has a few opportunities prior to the BOC rate announcement to inspire and motivate us…. lets see.\r\n\r\nDraghi spoke to the European Parliament; the word on the street was that he would be very dovish about extensions to quantitative easing (QE); the reality was completely different. He was very matter of fact and basically kept matters low key, nothing new.\r\n\r\nThen we had an eventful Janet Yellen speech in Boston, from which, she had dehydration issues and it looked like she stopped her speech early. Thankfully, from a health perspective she was able to keep to her business schedule. From a market perspective this time she was hawkish.\r\n\r\nI am getting a little confused with the FED at the moment. Yellen appears to use dialogue that has the markets confused. I think that she is relatively consistent but the markets require everything on a platter. I think she has to imagine that she was talking to a four-year old child so that it is easy for the likes of Wall Street to understand.\r\n\r\nHer dialogue is not being understood. Maybe, if the key sentences were tattooed on a stripper’s chest or bottom, the key words and phrases would be read, because right now I feel Wall Street does not listen or maybe quite possibly just doesn’t understand.\r\n\r\nI am still confused why 12 out of the 14 voting members are in favour of an interest rate increase before the end of 2015, could be treated as dovish. I know it’s all about the headlines in her speeches and how the media strikes the balance. Maybe as I said, if the key messages were delivered via a stripper’s bottom or chest, people might take more notice and these messages might be read more closely and perhaps even understood.\r\n\r\nI know the key deliverables in the speeches are the headlines but all the clues are there. I do think that Janet Yellen has a part to play here. It is a game with the media because all the media wants is news and if they cannot get news on facts who cares, they will create news based upon a loosely collated bundle of snippets and off the story goes factual or not.\r\n\r\nI am not advocating that Janet Yellen walks chair to chair lap dancing with the key deliverable’s tattooed to parts of her body…Holy Mother of God there’s a picture to ruin your Sunday Lunch, in fact, any meal time…my God it could sour milk. What I am saying is maybe she should do a Monty Python style arm gesture when something important is about to be said that the media should take note of. From my perspective it will certainly get more interest and its better than counting how many fecking times she says the word transitory.\r\n\r\nGetting back on track….\r\n\r\nShe was hawkish in Boston but I think all the hawkish stuff has been there for months, the media has just not found it sexy enough to focus on. They have rather glibly clung to the question of when are rates increasing, rather than concentrating on what the effects are going to be when they go up. I know, my focus on debating the effects may not sell many commercials on TV (unless my stripper idea caught on of course) but the FED is giving away all the clues via all the economic papers it releases. We are being fed headlines, which the media believes to be sexy news. We as traders need to look behind these.\r\n\r\nApart from the “bank heads” talk, nothing else really took my attention in the past week.\r\n\r\nBiggest non-news event of the week: -\r\n\r\nTHE GREEK ELECTION – Tsipras and his party have about 60 days to pass 80% of the conditions of the latest bailout through parliament. The creditors front ran all the deadline dates because they do not trust GREECE.\r\n\r\nWatch this space the “Greek Bailout Act IV” coming soon….\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n1.2: LOOKING FORWARDS:\r\n\r\nMAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:\r\n\r\n(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market other than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to <a href=\"http://www.forexfactory.com\">www.forexfactory.com</a> and <a href=\"http://www.tradingeconomics.com\">www.tradingeconomics.com</a> for a more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).\r\nSUNDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: USD – Consumer Confidence.\r\nTUESDAY: NZD – ANZ Business Confidence.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – ADP Non-Farm Employment Change.\r\nWEDNESDAY: CAD – GDP.\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – Janet Yellen (FED) speaks… make sure she has water!\r\nWEDNESDAY: CNY – PMi data.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: AUD – Retail Sales.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: USD – Non-Farm Payrolls.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMY THOUGHTS ON THE NEWS ITEMS THIS COMING WEEK:\r\n\r\nObviously, the biggie is Friday’s US jobs report and I believe that this will dominate all the media during the week. It will in all probability be based around the topic of “Will the FED hike? or won’t the FED hike?”, based on the job numbers. I am really poor at guessing what the numbers will be and what the immediate market reaction will be and frankly that is what it is, just a guess and I am not playing anymore. I hate NFP days, I have more failures than successes on NFP days and I hate them. I think this Friday will be the day to start the next blog early!!\r\n\r\nApart from NFP, consumer and business confidence numbers on Tuesday from the US and New Zealand is always worth noting and on Wednesday we have Chinese PMI data.\r\n\r\nThursday evening (for me) Australian retail sales will be a mover in spite of NFP following within 12 hours.\r\n\r\nI am writing about my FUNDAMENTAL views later in this blog and these are basically the key news events for me based upon my trading plan through to the year-end.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMY KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS THIS WEEK FOR USD MAJORS<strong>:\r\n</strong>In this section I have as usual kept my charts as minimalist as possible. All readers regardless of level of experience should be able to follow my thoughts from my comments to the levels on the charts with ease.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nEUR/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.1191\r\n\r\nWe are basically in a trading range from the lows of 1.1085 to 1.1460. If you enjoy range trading, happy days! If you are waiting for a breakout and a momentum trade, we will require a big moving news event to enable this to happen in my opinion. This Friday we have Non-Farm payrolls from the U.S., this may be the catalyst required.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURUSDDaily27092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6493\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURUSDDaily27092015.png\" alt=\"EURUSDDaily27092015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.5170\r\n\r\nUnder pressure from all sides, the cable looked to be at the edge of a cliff last Friday. There is good support ahead at the 61.8% retracement Fibonacci level of 1.5085. After this 1.5000 will obviously provide something as a nice round psychological number, however I fear that the cable could be heading a great deal lower. I hate trading the GBP/USD as it is the master of false moves, and, as soon as you feel that you finally have a trade under control it can quickly reverse on you.\r\n\r\nGiven all the recent talk about the UK possibly raising rates, this now appears to be on the horizon for 2017 (How this can be predicted this far out, amazes me). However, never rule out the best bullsh**ing bank governor out there, “Mark Carney” who can mislead the markets and then jump into his JCB to get himself out of his self produced hole.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GBPUSDWeekly27092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6494\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GBPUSDWeekly27092015.png\" alt=\"GBPUSDWeekly27092015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.7003\r\n\r\nA nice bounce back from a near death experience is the best way to describe the Aussie at the end of last week. Lets face facts all the cards are stacked against this pair not falling towards 0.6500. Commodity prices, China, future (probable) FED monetary policy and the RBA are all doing their bit to weaken this currency. What happens should equities fall as well; in my opinion, a drop to at least 0.6500.\r\n\r\nKey support now lies at 0.6940 and a break below this level exposes a greater downside move.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/AUDUSDDaily27092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6492\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/AUDUSDDaily27092015.png\" alt=\"AUDUSDDaily27092015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.6376\r\n\r\nCross-rate do affect the USD majors. The AUD/NZD, GBP/NZD and EUR/NZD came under tremendous pressure on Friday last week, and this kept the NZD/USD elevated.\r\n\r\nThe currency will be used as toilet paper soon as it is still grossly overvalued and RBNZ still feel it is at levels that are too high.\r\n\r\nWe are presently in a trading range from the lows of 0.6240 to 0.6500 as seen on the chart below. Just above 0.6400 should act as resistance, which should see the downside move return.\r\n\r\nMy longer-term target for this pair is close to 0.5700.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/NZDUSDDaily27092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6495\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/NZDUSDDaily27092015.png\" alt=\"NZDUSDDaily27092015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.3334\r\n\r\nWe saw a false breakout move last Thursday, which saw this pair stretch the upside to 1.3418. Support is good at 1.3300 and I see this as the base now. Moving forward a break lower than 1.3300 makes me feel that the upside breakout could be delayed somewhat. This pair is still very bullish and ultimately I see a 1.4000 level being achieved, but we have to crack 1.3418 first obviously.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCADDaily27092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6496\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCADDaily27092015.png\" alt=\"USDCADDaily27092015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF - Weekly Closing Price: 0.9774\r\n\r\nThis pair is on the cusp of a major move higher, which may go with or without the EUR/USD breaking down. The SNB are in my opinion getting ready to flex those muscles once again. We have a great base now at 0.9650, the 61.8% Fibonacci level. Once this pair breaks through 0.9850 I believe it will be off to parity shortly thereafter and beyond. If the SNB is required to help move the EUR/CHF through 1.1000 this move will benefit all CHF pairs. Premium Service subscribers should note the CHF cross-rate charts later.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCHFDaily27092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6497\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCHFDaily27092015.png\" alt=\"USDCHFDaily27092015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY - Weekly Closing Price: 120.55\r\n\r\nWe are in a wide trading range of 118.75 to 122.00. I think that this pair will be best to trade after the FED rate announcement and when we know the reaction from the equity markets following the announcement. Up until then, I think it will be much a do about nothing with daily chop moves in one direction and then the other.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDJPYDaily27092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6498\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDJPYDaily27092015.png\" alt=\"USDJPYDaily27092015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n1.3: LOOKING SIDEWAYS (FOR GOOD MEASURE):\r\n\r\nI had several communications this week based upon my reference to the KEY INDICATORS that I look at and wrote about last week. So for those readers I am going to elaborate this time around.\r\n\r\nMy lead indicators are: -\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>OIL</li>\r\n	<li>GOLD</li>\r\n	<li>COPPER</li>\r\n	<li>DXY index</li>\r\n	<li>S&amp;P index</li>\r\n	<li>USD/CAD</li>\r\n	<li>AUD/USD</li>\r\n	<li>AUD/JPY</li>\r\n	<li>USD/SEK</li>\r\n	<li>FX PRESSURE CHARTS</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nLead indicators for me are all about trading with an EDGE.\r\n\r\nI will try to answer as best I can the questions raised.\r\n\r\n<u>Why do I have lead indicators? </u>\r\n\r\nThis is because all the markets, precious metals, equities, commodity, bonds and Forex are all inter-linked one way or another. GOLD and OIL are priced in USD and therefore movements in GOLD and OIL will affect the USD.\r\n\r\nIf I see a bullish or bearish move in GOLD, this will have an effect on the USD. Movements in Oil will affect the oil-based economies like Canada, Mexico and Norway and therefore when WTi moves so will the CAD, MXN and NOK.\r\n\r\nMovement in Copper affects so many industries and the AUD currency moves in relation to copper movements amongst general commodity price moves. Copper imports/exports are essential to follow to see if a country is cutting back or expanding. These trends in Copper contribute to PMi and construction data.\r\n\r\nThese factors give me an EDGE.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>Do these indicators matter as much if you are a longer-term trader?</u>\r\n\r\nYes, I believe they matter all the time as all market components have trends, and, trends / momentums / Fibonacci levels matter across all markets whether it\'s a day or potential swing trade set up or even a longer term position that you are looking at.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>What role does the AUD/JPY play?</u>\r\n\r\nWhen there is zero economic data, the equity markets mainly drive the Forex market moves. Correlations do matter and they do count (PREMIUM SERVICE GOLD subscribers can find several articles under the EDUCATIUON tab on this subject), the AUD/JPY moves are more or less correlated to moves with the S&amp;P index. Therefore if the S&amp;P is under pressure it is more than likely that the AUD/JPY will also be under similar pressure. If they are NOT moving in sync this is a warning to further investigate. This gives me an EDGE.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>What role does the USD/SEK have to play?</u>\r\n\r\nThis Forex pair is very closely correlated to flagging USD movement whether weakness or strength. It is like the USD/CAD it tends to lead the USD, if that makes sense. More often or not if the USD has been weak, if there is USD strength trying to get back into the market the USD/SEK and USD/CAD tend to show the change in sentiment first. They are ahead of the DXY because these currencies are lightly weighted in the index, which is so heavily dominated by the EUR (over 50%). This gives me an EDGE.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>What are pressure charts?</u>\r\n\r\nThese are basically charts that instead of being based on prices, are charts based upon buying and selling. They can help with direction.\r\n\r\nWhen looking at candlesticks say for a 60-minute chart, at the end of the 60 minutes you have a candle created that is either part of a bullish or bearish formation of candles or on its own sets a tone or an indication of what the following candle should look like.\r\n\r\nFor example a “ Hammer” would indicate that for the next period the currency pair should be moving upwards.\r\n\r\nIf I am looking at pressure charts for the same 60-minute period I am seeing the relationship between buyers and sellers develop in the same way during the hour but if there are more buyers than sellers this will highlighted by the pressure charts based upon strength of the buying signals and the commitment to a particular direction. It can make me enter a trade at a better price point without waiting for the candle confirmation. This gives me an EDGE.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>Do I have these lead indicators across all my screens when trading?</u>\r\n\r\nNo, due to limits on space and the numbers of eyes I have, I cannot afford this. I am a trader. I trade almost every day. The lead indicators are my EDGE to my trading. I look at them all as I gather my thoughts for the day and I have the DXY, S&amp;P, Oil and Gold split into four on one screen, with the ability to check Copper and USD/SEK very quickly.\r\n\r\nMy other three screens are used for my currency pairs / brokers and pressure charts focused on Forex.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>What is my start-off routine each day?</u>\r\n\r\nFirst things first, let Ozzy and Aoife (my dogs) out into the back yard and get some coffee going.\r\n\r\nCheck existing OPEN trades if I have not already done so via my iPad prior to getting up. Adjust / advise PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers if required.\r\n\r\nLook at the “Holy Trinity” first… that is GOLD, OIL and COPPER. Note the highs and lows…post-it note on screen or place horizontal lines on screens as well…. depends on my mood.\r\n\r\nCheck the DXY… make a note of highs and lows, and put a Fibonacci level on a 240 or 480-minute chart on the screen.\r\n\r\nCheck the U.S. markets futures, DOW, S&amp;P and Nasdaq and look at the DAX and FTSE.\r\n\r\nMore coffee.\r\n\r\nThen look around all the currency pairs for high probability trades and advise PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers of set-ups and place trades with my brokers.\r\n\r\nIf required send out a few tweets to PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers on what my thoughts are and if they differ from that last communication.\r\n\r\nRead and answer communications from subscribers.\r\n\r\nSettle in for the next 12 hours or so behind the desk.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>Do I look at the Relative Strength Indicator (RSi)?</u>\r\n\r\nYes I do, but I do not consider it the be all and end all of making a trade. There are many instances when the RSi it behind the move. I look at it and sometimes I will pass comment on it to my subscribers when suggesting a trade. However, it is not really an indicator that I use all the time. I will use it more times to prevent me from taking a trade that is borderline with my TRADING PLAN.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nIn summary, my lead indicators may not be your lead indicators and like most things in trading it is “Whatever floats yer boat”.\r\n\r\nIf whatever you do works for you do not change. This works for me and it helps me. Having subscribers helps me focus because I do not want to suggest poor or weak trades. I have to have a good reason why I take any trade, it may not just be based upon a Fibonacci level, which can be enough on many occasions, but maybe a confirmation of an inter-market relationship or correlation as well being there to also support the trade set-up.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n	<li><strong> WHAT’S ON MY MIND:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>THE DIVERGENCE TRADE IS STILL ON</strong>\r\n<strong>and</strong>\r\n<strong>MY FUNDAMENTAL TRADING PLAN THRU TO THE</strong>\r\n<strong>YEAR END IS STILL IN PLAY</strong></p>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nJust prior to my break from trading over the summer I wrote about my FUNDAMENTAL TRADING PLAN and how I envisaged this moving forward given that at that time the FOMC still hadn’t raised rates. In fact, at that stage in July I was very much of the opinion that that the FOMC would hike in September.\r\n\r\nAs we know the FOMC remained on hold…buggers.\r\n\r\nI have been asked by a number of subscribers, after the FOMC hold and another batch of “FED SPEAK”; if my plan is still intact?\r\n\r\nI believe that it is pretty much still there and I have been delaying and delaying getting my trades set up and in position, so that my subscribers and myself are ready to take advantage of the FED move.\r\n\r\nThe core factors to my TRADING PLAN are still intact as far as I am concerned: -\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>The FED is tightening monetary policy.</li>\r\n	<li>Other central banks with the possible exception of the BOE are on a loosening monetary policy.</li>\r\n	<li>China is slowing down.</li>\r\n	<li>Australian and New Zealand economies are under pressure.</li>\r\n	<li>Oil is moving lower. Price expectations being talked about now are even lower than those back in July.</li>\r\n	<li>Commodity prices are still under pressure.</li>\r\n	<li>The SNB is still a loose cannon and could intervene at any time to weaken the CHF back to prior “PEG REMOVAL DAY” levels.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nMy FUNDAMENTAL TRADING PLAN is based around divergence. It is based around trading this divergence.\r\n\r\nI have stated many times before in my blogs that divergence is a strong reason to trade if it stems from central bank monetary policy. My plan until at least the end of the year is based upon such a plan with FED taking the lead.\r\n\r\nIt is based around a strong USD.\r\n\r\nThis will give me trading confidence based on the divergences between central banks FED v ECB, FED v RBA, FED v RBNZ, FED v BOC, FED v BOJ etc.\r\n\r\nIt is not just trading the USD major pairs; the cross-rate pairs are also of great interest once the divergent policy is established.\r\n\r\nAll I want now is for the FED to stop dithering and raise rates so my plan can commence in full swing.\r\n\r\nI have my target levels, for my target pairs already identified. It is now just a matter of time and being patient.\r\n\r\nEven though it is expected that the FOMC will raise rates, the timing is still not in place and to start with the plan now would involve some risk ahead of the announcement of US interest rates increasing. At the same time, there are trades that jump out that will be in line with FED policy that can be established prior to a rate announcement and should not be too badly affected if a further delay is advised.\r\n\r\nOver the coming days I will decide and place my interim strategy on these trades and have them in position knowing in advance when and where I will add to the initial position sizes.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:\r\n</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n3.1: SUMMARY OF YEAR TO DATE PERFORMANCE - 2015:\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">PREMIUM SERVICE – COST INCOME ANALYSIS (USD):</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">EMANATING FROM TRADE SET-UPS – to September 26th 2015.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">MICRO LOT TRADER - 507 trades cost to trade = $50.70\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 507 trades = <strong>$803.30</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">MINI LOT TRADER - 507 trades cost to trade = $507.00\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 507 trades = <strong>$8,033.00</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">STANDARD LOT TRADER - 507 trades cost to trade = $5,070.00\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 507 trades = <strong>$80,330.00</strong></p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n3.2: PREMIUM SERVICE – TRADE SUMMARIES MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PS-PROFITS1-27092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6481\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PS-PROFITS1-27092015.png\" alt=\"PS PROFITS1 27092015\" width=\"451\" height=\"426\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PS-PROFITS2-27092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6482\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PS-PROFITS2-27092015.png\" alt=\"PS PROFITS2 27092015\" width=\"453\" height=\"411\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNOTES:\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>If the above return from Forex Trading interests you go to my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> and check out the subscription options and special promotions under the tabs “PREMIUM SERVICE” and “PROMOTIONS”</li>\r\n	<li>The performance above is based off single-lot trade sizes.</li>\r\n	<li>THE PREMIUM SERVICE has subscribers with broker accounts of sizes ranging from $2,500 to over $100,000. A profitable trade is a profitable trade. It is all about trading according to the size of your broker account (EFFECTIVE POSITION SIZING) and applying RISK MANAGEMENT principles at all times.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) SUBSCRIBER CONTENT:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(The following section is additional data, thoughts, and ideas exclusively for PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) subscribers)\r\n\r\n4.1: THE PREMIUM SERVICE – TRADING REVIEW:\r\n\r\nI sent out an email last Friday about STOPS and TRADE SYTLE DEFINITIONS; I want to elaborate on that email so that every one can understand where I am coming from.\r\n\r\n<u>STOPS:</u>\r\n\r\nWhen I place a trade, the RADAR and FUNDAMENTAL trades are placed with a tweeted confirmation, mostly with a trade chart and then that is followed as soon as I can do it, with an email confirmation.\r\n\r\nI have received a couple of queries over the moving of stops in times of high market volatility to keep trades alive. They have been followed by comments stating that this increases your exposed risk to a particular trade.\r\n\r\nWhen a trade is advised by email it states what percentage of my RISK LIMIT is being placed into the trade at the start of the trade. Below on the example of the excel sheets you receive by email, RT489 states my original RISK is limited to 20% of the maximum I will tolerate under my TRADE PLAN.\r\n\r\nThis allows me to move the stop in times of high volatility. I do not want to have to move the stop, it is not my intention when I set up the trade, but sometimes needs must. The stop, when moved is usually moved to the next Fibonacci level, should this be deemed necessary.\r\n\r\nIf you are part-time and cannot have 100% access to your computer or other device maybe trade smaller positions and look at the trading chart supplied and place your stop at the next Fibonacci level to give you greater flexibility and then when you can next look at your broker account adjust back to my original trade set up.\r\n\r\nFor several months I have been saying trade smaller to limit your risk as this gives greater flexibility. The Forex market this year is more news headline driven than ever and this creates disruption. The markets are not as liquid as previous years, this adds to the volatility and the directional issues that we see almost daily.\r\n\r\nIf you are frustrated that you miss the revised stop announcements because you do not have access to twitter that is one thing, but if you are upset about the stop being moved and this exposes too much risk on your trade your are, in my opinion over-leveraging yourself.\r\n\r\nI know many of you trade with larger position sizes, maybe bigger than you should, but that is your call. I have been saying in many tweets of late if the stop is being moved; reduce your position size to keep within your RISK TOLERANCE levels that you have set out in your TRADE PLAN. If you do not have a TRADE PLAN, go to the EDUCATION tab and look at the examples in that section of the website. I would strongly suggest that you draw one up as soon as possible. This will give you increased focus on your trading moving forward\r\n\r\nThe Forex market is volatile and challenging and longevity in trading will only happen if you retain discipline with your trading.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/RT489-EXCEL-27092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6491\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/RT489-EXCEL-27092015.png\" alt=\"RT489 EXCEL 27092015\" width=\"450\" height=\"583\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>TRADE STYLE DEFINITIONS:</u>\r\n\r\nFor further clarification: -\r\n\r\nRADAR TRADES:\r\n\r\nThese are limit order entry trades when the entry level is pre-meditated based upon a Pivot point, Fibonacci Level or area of confluence. These are high probability trades based on additional information such as chart patterns etc.\r\n\r\nMostly these are trades I expect should run in normal circumstances for at least a day and possibly run into becoming swing trades should the market allow.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nFUNDAMENTAL TRADES:\r\n\r\nThese were originally intended for “Cross-rate” pairs that require greater flexibility with stop loss levels, as these pairs have much larger Average True Ranges (ATR’s) in comparison to say the USD majors.\r\n\r\nThese trades would usually last a few days or even longer. It really depends on market trends. They are best in a trending market and if the market is not trending they tend to flip-flop around and cause more pain and stress than they are worth even though the usual position sizes taken are much smaller than normal trades.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nFLASH TRADES:\r\n\r\nThese are basically what they sound like. These trades are opportunist market trades at the times that a move becomes available. Originally, these were GIMME 10 or GIMME 30 pip trades but they have developed as the market has changed. These trades can also last a day or two like a RADAR TRADE, and sometimes longer than a RADAR TRADE, it all just depends on the market.\r\n\r\nI often use what is called the ”PULLBACK STRATEGY” to determine an entry point with these trades.\r\n\r\nIf you are a part-time trader and not near or don\'t have continued access to your computer screen most of the time FLASH TRADES will not apply. Computer accessibility is required 100% for FLASH TRADES in my opinion. This means that RADAR and FUNDAMENTAL trades are your concentration areas.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nIf you need help on assessing your RISK TOLERANCES per trade or how to gauge the next stop level so as to have flexibility to remain in a trade please contact me.\r\n\r\nLooking at the trades over the past week, you can see it is difficult at the moment. The market moves are sometimes just news driven, which is fine but when it outweighs events it does throw up some weird and sometimes unexplainable Forex moves. One or two of you ask what made a certain move happen, as there was no visible news or event to manufacture such a move.\r\n\r\nSometimes it can just be a thin trading, illiquid time and an institution or muscle bank places a big order and a knee-jerk reaction takes place. I think we have had two or three of these events last week and this resulted in moving stops.\r\n\r\nI do not want to repeat myself too much, but if you go into the trade with just a little bit of tolerance “in your back pocket” so to speak, it gives you just a little bit of capacity to soak up the added volatility. This is why I am rarely more than 25% invested in my initial trades. You can always add to existing trades with new positions and move stops on the original trades to cover.\r\n\r\nThe markets have re-invented themselves again, the environment has changed this year over last and we seem to have been in transition mode for some time waiting on the FED. We have to as traders, adjust to lower volumes, increased volatility and an increasing number of squeezes. POSITION SIZING is in my opinion the only way to adopt and this manages your risk exposure at the same time to give you greater flexibility.\r\n\r\nWith all that said the PREMIUM SERVICE doubled it’s net monthly income last week for the month of September and the ratio of profitable trades to loss making trades improved. Something is being done correctly and we move forward.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.2: MAJOR TRADING PAIRS WITH LONGER-TERM MATCHING TRENDS:\r\n(The following currency pairs have Short Term (DAILY), Medium Term (WEEKLY) and Long Term (MONTHLY) charts all trending in the same direction).\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PS-TRENDING-PAIRS-27092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6490\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PS-TRENDING-PAIRS-27092015.png\" alt=\"PS TRENDING PAIRS 27092015\" width=\"490\" height=\"614\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.3: THE PREMIUM SERVICE - LIVE TRADES ARE:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PS-LIVE-TRADES-27092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6489\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PS-LIVE-TRADES-27092015.png\" alt=\"PS LIVE TRADES 27092015\" width=\"716\" height=\"570\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.4: THE PREMIUM SERVICE – LIMIT ORDER TRADES ARE:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PS-LIMIT-ORDERS-27092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6488\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PS-LIMIT-ORDERS-27092015.png\" alt=\"PS LIMIT ORDERS 27092015\" width=\"698\" height=\"447\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.5: POTENTIAL TRADES - WHAT PAIRS / CHARTS AM I LOOKING AT?\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF pair interest me greatly at the present time.\r\n\r\nThe CHF currency I believe is prime for a severe weakening. I would NOT rule out Thomas Jordan (SNB) having another 2015 moment. I believe the fact that the EUR/CHF has not gathered momentum to stick above 1.1000 is causing a few murmurings in Zurich. Do not rule out a central bank intervening move. The USD/CHF is poised to make a stab at parity, this may be the catalyst for the SNB to bite the bullet on the EUR/CHF and maybe introduce another floor.\r\n\r\nBelow I have charts of the GBP/CHF, AUD/CHF and NZD/CHF all of which show great support levels from where to base trades from.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/NZDCHFDaily270920151.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6504\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/NZDCHFDaily270920151.png\" alt=\"NZDCHFDaily27092015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/AUDCHFDaily27092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6500\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/AUDCHFDaily27092015.png\" alt=\"AUDCHFDaily27092015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GBPCHFDaily27092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6499\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GBPCHFDaily27092015.png\" alt=\"GBPCHFDaily27092015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe “Loonie” had a false breakout last week but I feel that it will only be a matter of time before another attempt to blast through 1.3400 occurs. I have the NZD/CAD chart below, this has been on my RADAR for a little while now having been brought to my attention a couple of weeks ago. I am waiting for the CAD and the NZD to move in line with their longer-term trends then I want to focus on this pair. The daily chart is below, which shows a range of 0.8300 to 0.8625 being the outer limits that I would want to target.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/NZDCADDaily27092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6503\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/NZDCADDaily27092015.png\" alt=\"NZDCADDaily27092015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe AUD/NZD: I lost 177 pips on a trade last week. I would not usually let a trade run this far but I was convinced that the NZD weakness would overrule the AUD weakness. This never happened as we all know, and in fact, the move lower with this pair was exacerbated by the cross rate effects of the EUR/NZD and GBP/NZD resulting in the AUD/NZD holding up a white flag on Thursday/Friday last week. The chart below looks like 1.0900 could the resting place for this move lower and could be the area from which to establish a long trade.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/AUDNZDMonthly27092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6502\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/AUDNZDMonthly27092015.png\" alt=\"AUDNZDMonthly27092015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n	<li><strong> MY FINAL THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nOVERVIEW OF TRADING TIPS &amp; THOUGHTS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD:\r\n\r\nLast week was a difficult week. I still cannot explain to myself why some of the FX moves happened and why. I suppose at the end of the day, it’s nice to know, but it’s not essential as all we have to do is react and remain calm and in control to the best of our abilities.\r\n\r\nIn times when the markets are difficult, I sometimes have the best performances and last week was one of those, my subscriber trading business, the premium service, doubled its September income last week.\r\n\r\nHow did this happen in such a difficult week?\r\n\r\nQuite simple, it was increased flexibility, not trading to full risk tolerance at the outset of the trade. That means not trading a full-size position. Keeping a little in reserve meant that risk management principles remained intact and trade plan objectives were not broken.\r\n\r\nI believe that until the FOMC stops all this nonsense on dithering and makes a decision to raise the FED minimum rate, we will continue to be news driven and those are the worst markets to trade inside. Many times we trade on a lie, complete fiction.\r\n\r\nIf we remain flexible as traders, we stand a good chance of reaching a point when we can achieve longevity in trading and provide an income.\r\n\r\nWe still have thin trading conditions too many times in my opinion and until this changes we need to trade with this in mind.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nTake care.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nhttps://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/','THE DIVERGENCE TRADE IS STILL ON','','inherit','closed','closed','','6505-revision-v1','','','2015-09-26 16:39:06','2015-09-26 21:39:06','',6505,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/6505-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(6507,1,'2015-09-27 09:09:38','2015-09-27 14:09:38','<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>THE PREMIUM SERVICE</strong>\r\n<strong>from the</strong>\r\n<strong>WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU</strong>\r\n<strong>“The Home of Single Lot Trading”</strong></p>\r\n\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li><strong> THE VIEW FROM MY TRADE DESK:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nLOOKING BACKWARDS, FORWARDS &amp; SIDEWAYS (FOR GOOD MEASURE) AT THE FX MARKET:\r\n\r\n1.1: LOOKING BACKWARDS:\r\n\r\nFollowing the FOMC hold on September 17<sup>th</sup>, last week was the time that I felt it important to concentrate on the speeches given by central bank presidents / governors. We had Poloz (BOC), Draghi (ECB) and further comments from Janet Yellen.\r\n\r\nPoloz, I feel is totally detached from reality at times. In Canada we are a month away from a general election and I feel he is just a pawn right now trying to keep things together. The Canadian economy is in the sh*t. There is low confidence and great uncertainty about what party will be triumphant at the election in under a month. There will be a rate cut happening very soon in an attempt to kick start matters, and I would say sooner rather than later. Canada is NOT the USA. It borders the USA but that is about it. The USA is not yet a commodity currency but the Canadian is. There is a wealth of commodities over and above oil in Canada. Oil may be dominant and trendy in the headlines right now and having a great effect on the “loonie”, which, we should not lose sight of.\r\n\r\nThe fact is oil has a massive supply and demand issue, which is not going away and as a result of this the price of oil will be under constant scrutiny and downward pressures. This creates doom and gloom on the TV news and lowers consumer confidence in the economy.\r\n\r\nIf there was no election, I feel that Poloz would have cut last time around. The cut is coming in my opinion at either the next meeting due on the 21<sup>st</sup> October, two days after the election on the 19<sup>th</sup> October, or the one following just in time to boost Christmas spending in the malls / stores and shops.\r\n\r\nBack to his speech…. If you could imagine touching the wettest fish, from the darkest deepest parts of the ocean, you are coming close. It was a non-committal boring non-event. Looking at the BOC web site he has a few opportunities prior to the BOC rate announcement to inspire and motivate us…. lets see.\r\n\r\nDraghi spoke to the European Parliament; the word on the street was that he would be very dovish about extensions to quantitative easing (QE); the reality was completely different. He was very matter of fact and basically kept matters low key, nothing new.\r\n\r\nThen we had an eventful Janet Yellen speech in Boston, from which, she had dehydration issues and it looked like she stopped her speech early. Thankfully, from a health perspective she was able to keep to her business schedule. From a market perspective this time she was hawkish.\r\n\r\nI am getting a little confused with the FED at the moment. Yellen appears to use dialogue that has the markets confused. I think that she is relatively consistent but the markets require everything on a platter. I think she has to imagine that she was talking to a four-year old child so that it is easy for the likes of Wall Street to understand.\r\n\r\nHer dialogue is not being understood. Maybe, if the key sentences were tattooed on a stripper’s chest or bottom, the key words and phrases would be read, because right now I feel Wall Street does not listen or maybe quite possibly just doesn’t understand.\r\n\r\nI am still confused why 12 out of the 14 voting members are in favour of an interest rate increase before the end of 2015, could be treated as dovish. I know it’s all about the headlines in her speeches and how the media strikes the balance. Maybe as I said, if the key messages were delivered via a stripper’s bottom or chest, people might take more notice and these messages might be read more closely and perhaps even understood.\r\n\r\nI know the key deliverables in the speeches are the headlines but all the clues are there. I do think that Janet Yellen has a part to play here. It is a game with the media because all the media wants is news and if they cannot get news on facts who cares, they will create news based upon a loosely collated bundle of snippets and off the story goes factual or not.\r\n\r\nI am not advocating that Janet Yellen walks chair to chair lap dancing with the key deliverable’s tattooed to parts of her body…Holy Mother of God there’s a picture to ruin your Sunday Lunch, in fact, any meal time…my God it could sour milk. What I am saying is maybe she should do a Monty Python style arm gesture when something important is about to be said that the media should take note of. From my perspective it will certainly get more interest and its better than counting how many fecking times she says the word transitory.\r\n\r\nGetting back on track….\r\n\r\nShe was hawkish in Boston but I think all the hawkish stuff has been there for months, the media has just not found it sexy enough to focus on. They have rather glibly clung to the question of when are rates increasing, rather than concentrating on what the effects are going to be when they go up. I know, my focus on debating the effects may not sell many commercials on TV (unless my stripper idea caught on of course) but the FED is giving away all the clues via all the economic papers it releases. We are being fed headlines, which the media believes to be sexy news. We as traders need to look behind these.\r\n\r\nApart from the “bank heads” talk, nothing else really took my attention in the past week.\r\n\r\nBiggest non-news event of the week: -\r\n\r\nTHE GREEK ELECTION – Tsipras and his party have about 60 days to pass 80% of the conditions of the latest bailout through parliament. The creditors front ran all the deadline dates because they do not trust GREECE.\r\n\r\nWatch this space the “Greek Bailout Act IV” coming soon….\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n1.2: LOOKING FORWARDS:\r\n\r\nMAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:\r\n\r\n(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market other than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to <a href=\"http://www.forexfactory.com\">www.forexfactory.com</a> and <a href=\"http://www.tradingeconomics.com\">www.tradingeconomics.com</a> for a more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).\r\nSUNDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: USD – Consumer Confidence.\r\nTUESDAY: NZD – ANZ Business Confidence.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – ADP Non-Farm Employment Change.\r\nWEDNESDAY: CAD – GDP.\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – Janet Yellen (FED) speaks… make sure she has water!\r\nWEDNESDAY: CNY – PMi data.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: AUD – Retail Sales.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: USD – Non-Farm Payrolls.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMY THOUGHTS ON THE NEWS ITEMS THIS COMING WEEK:\r\n\r\nObviously, the biggie is Friday’s US jobs report and I believe that this will dominate all the media during the week. It will in all probability be based around the topic of “Will the FED hike? or won’t the FED hike?”, based on the job numbers. I am really poor at guessing what the numbers will be and what the immediate market reaction will be and frankly that is what it is, just a guess and I am not playing anymore. I hate NFP days, I have more failures than successes on NFP days and I hate them. I think this Friday will be the day to start the next blog early!!\r\n\r\nApart from NFP, consumer and business confidence numbers on Tuesday from the US and New Zealand is always worth noting and on Wednesday we have Chinese PMI data.\r\n\r\nThursday evening (for me) Australian retail sales will be a mover in spite of NFP following within 12 hours.\r\n\r\nI am writing about my FUNDAMENTAL views later in this blog and these are basically the key news events for me based upon my trading plan through to the year-end.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMY KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS THIS WEEK FOR USD MAJORS<strong>:\r\n</strong>In this section I have as usual kept my charts as minimalist as possible. All readers regardless of level of experience should be able to follow my thoughts from my comments to the levels on the charts with ease.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nEUR/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.1191\r\n\r\nWe are basically in a trading range from the lows of 1.1085 to 1.1460. If you enjoy range trading, happy days! If you are waiting for a breakout and a momentum trade, we will require a big moving news event to enable this to happen in my opinion. This Friday we have Non-Farm payrolls from the U.S., this may be the catalyst required.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURUSDDaily27092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6493\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURUSDDaily27092015.png\" alt=\"EURUSDDaily27092015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.5170\r\n\r\nUnder pressure from all sides, the cable looked to be at the edge of a cliff last Friday. There is good support ahead at the 61.8% retracement Fibonacci level of 1.5085. After this 1.5000 will obviously provide something as a nice round psychological number, however I fear that the cable could be heading a great deal lower. I hate trading the GBP/USD as it is the master of false moves, and, as soon as you feel that you finally have a trade under control it can quickly reverse on you.\r\n\r\nGiven all the recent talk about the UK possibly raising rates, this now appears to be on the horizon for 2017 (How this can be predicted this far out, amazes me). However, never rule out the best bullsh**ing bank governor out there, “Mark Carney” who can mislead the markets and then jump into his JCB to get himself out of his self produced hole.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GBPUSDWeekly27092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6494\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GBPUSDWeekly27092015.png\" alt=\"GBPUSDWeekly27092015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.7003\r\n\r\nA nice bounce back from a near death experience is the best way to describe the Aussie at the end of last week. Lets face facts all the cards are stacked against this pair not falling towards 0.6500. Commodity prices, China, future (probable) FED monetary policy and the RBA are all doing their bit to weaken this currency. What happens should equities fall as well; in my opinion, a drop to at least 0.6500.\r\n\r\nKey support now lies at 0.6940 and a break below this level exposes a greater downside move.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/AUDUSDDaily27092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6492\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/AUDUSDDaily27092015.png\" alt=\"AUDUSDDaily27092015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.6376\r\n\r\nCross-rate do affect the USD majors. The AUD/NZD, GBP/NZD and EUR/NZD came under tremendous pressure on Friday last week, and this kept the NZD/USD elevated.\r\n\r\nThe currency will be used as toilet paper soon as it is still grossly overvalued and RBNZ still feel it is at levels that are too high.\r\n\r\nWe are presently in a trading range from the lows of 0.6240 to 0.6500 as seen on the chart below. Just above 0.6400 should act as resistance, which should see the downside move return.\r\n\r\nMy longer-term target for this pair is close to 0.5700.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/NZDUSDDaily27092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6495\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/NZDUSDDaily27092015.png\" alt=\"NZDUSDDaily27092015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.3334\r\n\r\nWe saw a false breakout move last Thursday, which saw this pair stretch the upside to 1.3418. Support is good at 1.3300 and I see this as the base now. Moving forward a break lower than 1.3300 makes me feel that the upside breakout could be delayed somewhat. This pair is still very bullish and ultimately I see a 1.4000 level being achieved, but we have to crack 1.3418 first obviously.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCADDaily27092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6496\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCADDaily27092015.png\" alt=\"USDCADDaily27092015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF - Weekly Closing Price: 0.9774\r\n\r\nThis pair is on the cusp of a major move higher, which may go with or without the EUR/USD breaking down. The SNB are in my opinion getting ready to flex those muscles once again. We have a great base now at 0.9650, the 61.8% Fibonacci level. Once this pair breaks through 0.9850 I believe it will be off to parity shortly thereafter and beyond. If the SNB is required to help move the EUR/CHF through 1.1000 this move will benefit all CHF pairs. Premium Service subscribers should note the CHF cross-rate charts later.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCHFDaily27092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6497\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCHFDaily27092015.png\" alt=\"USDCHFDaily27092015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY - Weekly Closing Price: 120.55\r\n\r\nWe are in a wide trading range of 118.75 to 122.00. I think that this pair will be best to trade after the FED rate announcement and when we know the reaction from the equity markets following the announcement. Up until then, I think it will be much a do about nothing with daily chop moves in one direction and then the other.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDJPYDaily27092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6498\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDJPYDaily27092015.png\" alt=\"USDJPYDaily27092015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n1.3: LOOKING SIDEWAYS (FOR GOOD MEASURE):\r\n\r\nI had several communications this week based upon my reference to the KEY INDICATORS that I look at and wrote about last week. So for those readers I am going to elaborate this time around.\r\n\r\nMy lead indicators are: -\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>OIL</li>\r\n	<li>GOLD</li>\r\n	<li>COPPER</li>\r\n	<li>DXY index</li>\r\n	<li>S&amp;P index</li>\r\n	<li>USD/CAD</li>\r\n	<li>AUD/USD</li>\r\n	<li>AUD/JPY</li>\r\n	<li>USD/SEK</li>\r\n	<li>FX PRESSURE CHARTS</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nLead indicators for me are all about trading with an EDGE.\r\n\r\nI will try to answer as best I can the questions raised.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>Why do I have lead indicators? </u>\r\n\r\nThis is because all the markets, precious metals, equities, commodity, bonds and Forex are all inter-linked one way or another. GOLD and OIL are priced in USD and therefore movements in GOLD and OIL will affect the USD.\r\n\r\nIf I see a bullish or bearish move in GOLD, this will have an effect on the USD. Movements in Oil will affect the oil-based economies like Canada, Mexico and Norway and therefore when WTi moves so will the CAD, MXN and NOK.\r\n\r\nMovement in Copper affects so many industries and the AUD currency moves in relation to copper movements amongst general commodity price moves. Copper imports/exports are essential to follow to see if a country is cutting back or expanding. These trends in Copper contribute to PMi and construction data.\r\n\r\nThese factors give me an EDGE.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>Do these indicators matter as much if you are a longer-term trader?</u>\r\n\r\nYes, I believe they matter all the time as all market components have trends, and, trends / momentums / Fibonacci levels matter across all markets whether it\'s a day or potential swing trade set up or even a longer term position that you are looking at.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>What role does the AUD/JPY play?</u>\r\n\r\nWhen there is zero economic data, the equity markets mainly drive the Forex market moves. Correlations do matter and they do count (PREMIUM SERVICE GOLD subscribers can find several articles under the EDUCATION tab on this subject), the AUD/JPY moves are more or less correlated to moves with the S&amp;P index. Therefore if the S&amp;P is under pressure it is more than likely that the AUD/JPY will also be under similar pressure. If they are NOT moving in sync this is a warning to further investigate. This gives me an EDGE.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>What role does the USD/SEK have to play?</u>\r\n\r\nThis Forex pair is very closely correlated to flagging USD movement whether weakness or strength. It is like the USD/CAD it tends to lead the USD, if that makes sense. More often or not if the USD has been weak, if there is USD strength trying to get back into the market the USD/SEK and USD/CAD tend to show the change in sentiment first. They are ahead of the DXY because these currencies are lightly weighted in the index, which is so heavily dominated by the EUR (over 50%). This gives me an EDGE.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>What are pressure charts?</u>\r\n\r\nThese are basically charts that instead of being based on prices, are charts based upon buying and selling. They can help with direction.\r\n\r\nWhen looking at candlesticks say for a 60-minute chart, at the end of the 60 minutes you have a candle created that is either part of a bullish or bearish formation of candles or on its own sets a tone or an indication of what the following candle should look like.\r\n\r\nFor example a “ Hammer” would indicate that for the next period the currency pair should be moving upwards.\r\n\r\nIf I am looking at pressure charts for the same 60-minute period I am seeing the relationship between buyers and sellers develop in the same way during the hour but if there are more buyers than sellers this will highlighted by the pressure charts based upon strength of the buying signals and the commitment to a particular direction. It can make me enter a trade at a better price point without waiting for the candle confirmation. This gives me an EDGE.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>Do I have these lead indicators across all my screens when trading?</u>\r\n\r\nNo, due to limits on space and the numbers of eyes I have, I cannot afford this. I am a trader. I trade almost every day. The lead indicators are my EDGE to my trading. I look at them all as I gather my thoughts for the day and I have the DXY, S&amp;P, Oil and Gold split into four on one screen, with the ability to check Copper and USD/SEK very quickly.\r\n\r\nMy other three screens are used for my currency pairs / brokers and pressure charts focused on Forex.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>What is my start-off routine each day?</u>\r\n\r\nFirst things first, let Ozzy and Aoife (my dogs) out into the back yard and get some coffee going.\r\n\r\nCheck existing OPEN trades if I have not already done so via my iPad prior to getting up. Adjust / advise PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers if required.\r\n\r\nLook at the “Holy Trinity” first… that is GOLD, OIL and COPPER. Note the highs and lows…post-it note on screen or place horizontal lines on screens as well…. depends on my mood.\r\n\r\nCheck the DXY… make a note of highs and lows, and put a Fibonacci level on a 240 or 480-minute chart on the screen.\r\n\r\nCheck the U.S. markets futures, DOW, S&amp;P and Nasdaq and look at the DAX and FTSE.\r\n\r\nMore coffee.\r\n\r\nThen look around all the currency pairs for high probability trades and advise PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers of set-ups and place trades with my brokers.\r\n\r\nIf required send out a few tweets to PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers on what my thoughts are and if they differ from that last communication.\r\n\r\nRead and answer communications from subscribers.\r\n\r\nSettle in for the next 12 hours or so behind the desk.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>Do I look at the Relative Strength Indicator (RSi)?</u>\r\n\r\nYes I do, but I do not consider it the be all and end all of making a trade. There are many instances when the RSi it behind the move. I look at it and sometimes I will pass comment on it to my subscribers when suggesting a trade. However, it is not really an indicator that I use all the time. I will use it more times to prevent me from taking a trade that is borderline with my TRADING PLAN.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nIn summary, my lead indicators may not be your lead indicators and like most things in trading it is “Whatever floats yer boat”.\r\n\r\nIf whatever you do works for you do not change. This works for me and it helps me. Having subscribers helps me focus because I do not want to suggest poor or weak trades. I have to have a good reason why I take any trade, it may not just be based upon a Fibonacci level, which can be enough on many occasions, but maybe a confirmation of an inter-market relationship or correlation as well being there to also support the trade set-up.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n	<li><strong> WHAT’S ON MY MIND:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>THE DIVERGENCE TRADE IS STILL ON</strong>\r\n<strong>and</strong>\r\n<strong>MY FUNDAMENTAL TRADING PLAN THRU TO THE</strong>\r\n<strong>YEAR END IS STILL IN PLAY</strong></p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nJust prior to my break from trading over the summer I wrote about my FUNDAMENTAL TRADING PLAN and how I envisaged this moving forward given that at that time the FOMC still hadn’t raised rates. In fact, at that stage in July I was very much of the opinion that that the FOMC would hike in September.\r\n\r\nAs we know the FOMC remained on hold…buggers.\r\n\r\nI have been asked by a number of subscribers, after the FOMC hold and another batch of “FED SPEAK”; if my plan is still intact?\r\n\r\nI believe that it is pretty much still there and I have been delaying and delaying getting my trades set up and in position, so that my subscribers and myself are ready to take advantage of the FED move.\r\n\r\nThe core factors to my TRADING PLAN are still intact as far as I am concerned: -\r\n\r\nThe FED is tightening monetary policy.\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>Other central banks with the possible exception of the BOE are on a loosening monetary policy.</li>\r\n	<li>China is slowing down.</li>\r\n	<li>Australian and New Zealand economies are under pressure.</li>\r\n	<li>Oil is moving lower. Price expectations being talked about now are even lower than those back in July.</li>\r\n	<li>Commodity prices are still under pressure.</li>\r\n	<li>The SNB is still a loose cannon and could intervene at any time to weaken the CHF back to prior “PEG REMOVAL DAY” levels.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nMy FUNDAMENTAL TRADING PLAN is based around divergence. It is based around trading this divergence.\r\n\r\nI have stated many times before in my blogs that divergence is a strong reason to trade if it stems from central bank monetary policy. My plan until at least the end of the year is based upon such a plan with FED taking the lead.\r\n\r\nIt is based around a strong USD.\r\n\r\nThis will give me trading confidence based on the divergences between central banks FED v ECB, FED v RBA, FED v RBNZ, FED v BOC, FED v BOJ etc.\r\n\r\nIt is not just trading the USD major pairs; the cross-rate pairs are also of great interest once the divergent policy is established.\r\n\r\nAll I want now is for the FED to stop dithering and raise rates so my plan can commence in full swing.\r\n\r\nI have my target levels, for my target pairs already identified. It is now just a matter of time and being patient.\r\n\r\nEven though it is expected that the FOMC will raise rates, the timing is still not in place and to start with the plan now would involve some risk ahead of the announcement of US interest rates increasing. At the same time, there are trades that jump out that will be in line with FED policy that can be established prior to a rate announcement and should not be too badly affected if a further delay is advised.\r\n\r\nOver the coming days I will decide and place my interim strategy on these trades and have them in position knowing in advance when and where I will add to the initial position sizes.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:\r\n</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n3.1: SUMMARY OF YEAR TO DATE PERFORMANCE - 2015:\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">PREMIUM SERVICE – COST INCOME ANALYSIS (USD):</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">EMANATING FROM TRADE SET-UPS – to September 26th 2015.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">MICRO LOT TRADER - 507 trades cost to trade = $50.70\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 507 trades = <strong>$803.30</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">MINI LOT TRADER - 507 trades cost to trade = $507.00\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 507 trades = <strong>$8,033.00</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">STANDARD LOT TRADER - 507 trades cost to trade = $5,070.00\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 507 trades = <strong>$80,330.00</strong></p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n3.2: PREMIUM SERVICE – TRADE SUMMARIES MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PS-PROFITS1-27092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6481\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PS-PROFITS1-27092015.png\" alt=\"PS PROFITS1 27092015\" width=\"451\" height=\"426\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PS-PROFITS2-27092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6482\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PS-PROFITS2-27092015.png\" alt=\"PS PROFITS2 27092015\" width=\"453\" height=\"411\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNOTES:\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>If the above return from Forex Trading interests you go to my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> and check out the subscription options and special promotions under the tabs “PREMIUM SERVICE” and “PROMOTIONS”</li>\r\n	<li>The performance above is based off single-lot trade sizes.</li>\r\n	<li>THE PREMIUM SERVICE has subscribers with broker accounts of sizes ranging from $2,500 to over $100,000. A profitable trade is a profitable trade. It is all about trading according to the size of your broker account (EFFECTIVE POSITION SIZING) and applying RISK MANAGEMENT principles at all times.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) SUBSCRIBER CONTENT:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(The following section is additional data, thoughts, and ideas exclusively for PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) subscribers)\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n	<li><strong> MY FINAL THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nOVERVIEW OF TRADING TIPS &amp; THOUGHTS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD:\r\n\r\nLast week was a difficult week. I still cannot explain to myself why some of the FX moves happened and why. I suppose at the end of the day, it’s nice to know, but it’s not essential as all we have to do is react and remain calm and in control to the best of our abilities.\r\n\r\nIn times when the markets are difficult, I sometimes have the best performances and last week was one of those, my subscriber trading business, the premium service, doubled its September income last week.\r\n\r\nHow did this happen in such a difficult week?\r\n\r\nQuite simple, it was increased flexibility, not trading to full risk tolerance at the outset of the trade. That means not trading a full-size position. Keeping a little in reserve meant that risk management principles remained intact and trade plan objectives were not broken.\r\n\r\nI believe that until the FOMC stops all this nonsense on dithering and makes a decision to raise the FED minimum rate, we will continue to be news driven and those are the worst markets to trade inside. Many times we trade on a lie, complete fiction.\r\n\r\nIf we remain flexible as traders, we stand a good chance of reaching a point when we can achieve longevity in trading and provide an income.\r\n\r\nWe still have thin trading conditions too many times in my opinion and until this changes we need to trade with this in mind.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nTake care.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nhttps://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\r\nBLOG REF #168\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u> </u></strong>','THE DIVERGENCE TRADE IS STILL ON','','publish','open','closed','','the-divergence-trade-is-still-on','','','2015-09-27 09:09:38','2015-09-27 14:09:38','',0,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?p=6507',0,'post','',0),(6508,1,'2015-09-26 16:51:11','2015-09-26 21:51:11','<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>THE PREMIUM SERVICE</strong>\r\n<strong>from the</strong>\r\n<strong>WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU</strong>\r\n<strong>“The Home of Single Lot Trading”</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"></p>\r\n\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li><strong> THE VIEW FROM MY TRADE DESK:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nLOOKING BACKWARDS, FORWARDS &amp; SIDEWAYS (FOR GOOD MEASURE) AT THE FX MARKET:\r\n\r\n1.1: LOOKING BACKWARDS:\r\n\r\nFollowing the FOMC hold on September 17<sup>th</sup>, last week was the time that I felt it important to concentrate on the speeches given by central bank presidents / governors. We had Poloz (BOC), Draghi (ECB) and further comments from Janet Yellen.\r\n\r\nPoloz, I feel is totally detached from reality at times. In Canada we are a month away from a general election and I feel he is just a pawn right now trying to keep things together. The Canadian economy is in the sh*t. There is low confidence and great uncertainty about what party will be triumphant at the election in under a month. There will be a rate cut happening very soon in an attempt to kick start matters, and I would say sooner rather than later. Canada is NOT the USA. It borders the USA but that is about it. The USA is not yet a commodity currency but the Canadian is. There is a wealth of commodities over and above oil in Canada. Oil may be dominant and trendy in the headlines right now and having a great effect on the “loonie”, which, we should not lose sight of.\r\n\r\nThe fact is oil has a massive supply and demand issue, which is not going away and as a result of this the price of oil will be under constant scrutiny and downward pressures. This creates doom and gloom on the TV news and lowers consumer confidence in the economy.\r\n\r\nIf there was no election, I feel that Poloz would have cut last time around. The cut is coming in my opinion at either the next meeting due on the 21<sup>st</sup> October, two days after the election on the 19<sup>th</sup> October, or the one following just in time to boost Christmas spending in the malls / stores and shops.\r\n\r\nBack to his speech…. If you could imagine touching the wettest fish, from the darkest deepest parts of the ocean, you are coming close. It was a non-committal boring non-event. Looking at the BOC web site he has a few opportunities prior to the BOC rate announcement to inspire and motivate us…. lets see.\r\n\r\nDraghi spoke to the European Parliament; the word on the street was that he would be very dovish about extensions to quantitative easing (QE); the reality was completely different. He was very matter of fact and basically kept matters low key, nothing new.\r\n\r\nThen we had an eventful Janet Yellen speech in Boston, from which, she had dehydration issues and it looked like she stopped her speech early. Thankfully, from a health perspective she was able to keep to her business schedule. From a market perspective this time she was hawkish.\r\n\r\nI am getting a little confused with the FED at the moment. Yellen appears to use dialogue that has the markets confused. I think that she is relatively consistent but the markets require everything on a platter. I think she has to imagine that she was talking to a four-year old child so that it is easy for the likes of Wall Street to understand.\r\n\r\nHer dialogue is not being understood. Maybe, if the key sentences were tattooed on a stripper’s chest or bottom, the key words and phrases would be read, because right now I feel Wall Street does not listen or maybe quite possibly just doesn’t understand.\r\n\r\nI am still confused why 12 out of the 14 voting members are in favour of an interest rate increase before the end of 2015, could be treated as dovish. I know it’s all about the headlines in her speeches and how the media strikes the balance. Maybe as I said, if the key messages were delivered via a stripper’s bottom or chest, people might take more notice and these messages might be read more closely and perhaps even understood.\r\n\r\nI know the key deliverables in the speeches are the headlines but all the clues are there. I do think that Janet Yellen has a part to play here. It is a game with the media because all the media wants is news and if they cannot get news on facts who cares, they will create news based upon a loosely collated bundle of snippets and off the story goes factual or not.\r\n\r\nI am not advocating that Janet Yellen walks chair to chair lap dancing with the key deliverable’s tattooed to parts of her body…Holy Mother of God there’s a picture to ruin your Sunday Lunch, in fact, any meal time…my God it could sour milk. What I am saying is maybe she should do a Monty Python style arm gesture when something important is about to be said that the media should take note of. From my perspective it will certainly get more interest and its better than counting how many fecking times she says the word transitory.\r\n\r\nGetting back on track….\r\n\r\nShe was hawkish in Boston but I think all the hawkish stuff has been there for months, the media has just not found it sexy enough to focus on. They have rather glibly clung to the question of when are rates increasing, rather than concentrating on what the effects are going to be when they go up. I know, my focus on debating the effects may not sell many commercials on TV (unless my stripper idea caught on of course) but the FED is giving away all the clues via all the economic papers it releases. We are being fed headlines, which the media believes to be sexy news. We as traders need to look behind these.\r\n\r\nApart from the “bank heads” talk, nothing else really took my attention in the past week.\r\n\r\nBiggest non-news event of the week: -\r\n\r\nTHE GREEK ELECTION – Tsipras and his party have about 60 days to pass 80% of the conditions of the latest bailout through parliament. The creditors front ran all the deadline dates because they do not trust GREECE.\r\n\r\nWatch this space the “Greek Bailout Act IV” coming soon….\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n1.2: LOOKING FORWARDS:\r\n\r\nMAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:\r\n\r\n(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market other than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to <a href=\"http://www.forexfactory.com\">www.forexfactory.com</a> and <a href=\"http://www.tradingeconomics.com\">www.tradingeconomics.com</a> for a more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).\r\nSUNDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: USD – Consumer Confidence.\r\nTUESDAY: NZD – ANZ Business Confidence.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – ADP Non-Farm Employment Change.\r\nWEDNESDAY: CAD – GDP.\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – Janet Yellen (FED) speaks… make sure she has water!\r\nWEDNESDAY: CNY – PMi data.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: AUD – Retail Sales.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: USD – Non-Farm Payrolls.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMY THOUGHTS ON THE NEWS ITEMS THIS COMING WEEK:\r\n\r\nObviously, the biggie is Friday’s US jobs report and I believe that this will dominate all the media during the week. It will in all probability be based around the topic of “Will the FED hike? or won’t the FED hike?”, based on the job numbers. I am really poor at guessing what the numbers will be and what the immediate market reaction will be and frankly that is what it is, just a guess and I am not playing anymore. I hate NFP days, I have more failures than successes on NFP days and I hate them. I think this Friday will be the day to start the next blog early!!\r\n\r\nApart from NFP, consumer and business confidence numbers on Tuesday from the US and New Zealand is always worth noting and on Wednesday we have Chinese PMI data.\r\n\r\nThursday evening (for me) Australian retail sales will be a mover in spite of NFP following within 12 hours.\r\n\r\nI am writing about my FUNDAMENTAL views later in this blog and these are basically the key news events for me based upon my trading plan through to the year-end.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMY KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS THIS WEEK FOR USD MAJORS<strong>:\r\n</strong>In this section I have as usual kept my charts as minimalist as possible. All readers regardless of level of experience should be able to follow my thoughts from my comments to the levels on the charts with ease.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nEUR/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.1191\r\n\r\nWe are basically in a trading range from the lows of 1.1085 to 1.1460. If you enjoy range trading, happy days! If you are waiting for a breakout and a momentum trade, we will require a big moving news event to enable this to happen in my opinion. This Friday we have Non-Farm payrolls from the U.S., this may be the catalyst required.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURUSDDaily27092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6493\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURUSDDaily27092015.png\" alt=\"EURUSDDaily27092015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.5170\r\n\r\nUnder pressure from all sides, the cable looked to be at the edge of a cliff last Friday. There is good support ahead at the 61.8% retracement Fibonacci level of 1.5085. After this 1.5000 will obviously provide something as a nice round psychological number, however I fear that the cable could be heading a great deal lower. I hate trading the GBP/USD as it is the master of false moves, and, as soon as you feel that you finally have a trade under control it can quickly reverse on you.\r\n\r\nGiven all the recent talk about the UK possibly raising rates, this now appears to be on the horizon for 2017 (How this can be predicted this far out, amazes me). However, never rule out the best bullsh**ing bank governor out there, “Mark Carney” who can mislead the markets and then jump into his JCB to get himself out of his self produced hole.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GBPUSDWeekly27092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6494\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GBPUSDWeekly27092015.png\" alt=\"GBPUSDWeekly27092015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.7003\r\n\r\nA nice bounce back from a near death experience is the best way to describe the Aussie at the end of last week. Lets face facts all the cards are stacked against this pair not falling towards 0.6500. Commodity prices, China, future (probable) FED monetary policy and the RBA are all doing their bit to weaken this currency. What happens should equities fall as well; in my opinion, a drop to at least 0.6500.\r\n\r\nKey support now lies at 0.6940 and a break below this level exposes a greater downside move.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/AUDUSDDaily27092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6492\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/AUDUSDDaily27092015.png\" alt=\"AUDUSDDaily27092015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.6376\r\n\r\nCross-rate do affect the USD majors. The AUD/NZD, GBP/NZD and EUR/NZD came under tremendous pressure on Friday last week, and this kept the NZD/USD elevated.\r\n\r\nThe currency will be used as toilet paper soon as it is still grossly overvalued and RBNZ still feel it is at levels that are too high.\r\n\r\nWe are presently in a trading range from the lows of 0.6240 to 0.6500 as seen on the chart below. Just above 0.6400 should act as resistance, which should see the downside move return.\r\n\r\nMy longer-term target for this pair is close to 0.5700.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/NZDUSDDaily27092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6495\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/NZDUSDDaily27092015.png\" alt=\"NZDUSDDaily27092015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.3334\r\n\r\nWe saw a false breakout move last Thursday, which saw this pair stretch the upside to 1.3418. Support is good at 1.3300 and I see this as the base now. Moving forward a break lower than 1.3300 makes me feel that the upside breakout could be delayed somewhat. This pair is still very bullish and ultimately I see a 1.4000 level being achieved, but we have to crack 1.3418 first obviously.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCADDaily27092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6496\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCADDaily27092015.png\" alt=\"USDCADDaily27092015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF - Weekly Closing Price: 0.9774\r\n\r\nThis pair is on the cusp of a major move higher, which may go with or without the EUR/USD breaking down. The SNB are in my opinion getting ready to flex those muscles once again. We have a great base now at 0.9650, the 61.8% Fibonacci level. Once this pair breaks through 0.9850 I believe it will be off to parity shortly thereafter and beyond. If the SNB is required to help move the EUR/CHF through 1.1000 this move will benefit all CHF pairs. Premium Service subscribers should note the CHF cross-rate charts later.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCHFDaily27092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6497\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCHFDaily27092015.png\" alt=\"USDCHFDaily27092015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY - Weekly Closing Price: 120.55\r\n\r\nWe are in a wide trading range of 118.75 to 122.00. I think that this pair will be best to trade after the FED rate announcement and when we know the reaction from the equity markets following the announcement. Up until then, I think it will be much a do about nothing with daily chop moves in one direction and then the other.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDJPYDaily27092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6498\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDJPYDaily27092015.png\" alt=\"USDJPYDaily27092015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n1.3: LOOKING SIDEWAYS (FOR GOOD MEASURE):\r\n\r\nI had several communications this week based upon my reference to the KEY INDICATORS that I look at and wrote about last week. So for those readers I am going to elaborate this time around.\r\n\r\nMy lead indicators are: -\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>OIL</li>\r\n	<li>GOLD</li>\r\n	<li>COPPER</li>\r\n	<li>DXY index</li>\r\n	<li>S&amp;P index</li>\r\n	<li>USD/CAD</li>\r\n	<li>AUD/USD</li>\r\n	<li>AUD/JPY</li>\r\n	<li>USD/SEK</li>\r\n	<li>FX PRESSURE CHARTS</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nLead indicators for me are all about trading with an EDGE.\r\n\r\nI will try to answer as best I can the questions raised.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>Why do I have lead indicators? </u>\r\n\r\nThis is because all the markets, precious metals, equities, commodity, bonds and Forex are all inter-linked one way or another. GOLD and OIL are priced in USD and therefore movements in GOLD and OIL will affect the USD.\r\n\r\nIf I see a bullish or bearish move in GOLD, this will have an effect on the USD. Movements in Oil will affect the oil-based economies like Canada, Mexico and Norway and therefore when WTi moves so will the CAD, MXN and NOK.\r\n\r\nMovement in Copper affects so many industries and the AUD currency moves in relation to copper movements amongst general commodity price moves. Copper imports/exports are essential to follow to see if a country is cutting back or expanding. These trends in Copper contribute to PMi and construction data.\r\n\r\nThese factors give me an EDGE.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>Do these indicators matter as much if you are a longer-term trader?</u>\r\n\r\nYes, I believe they matter all the time as all market components have trends, and, trends / momentums / Fibonacci levels matter across all markets whether it\'s a day or potential swing trade set up or even a longer term position that you are looking at.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>What role does the AUD/JPY play?</u>\r\n\r\nWhen there is zero economic data, the equity markets mainly drive the Forex market moves. Correlations do matter and they do count (PREMIUM SERVICE GOLD subscribers can find several articles under the EDUCATIUON tab on this subject), the AUD/JPY moves are more or less correlated to moves with the S&amp;P index. Therefore if the S&amp;P is under pressure it is more than likely that the AUD/JPY will also be under similar pressure. If they are NOT moving in sync this is a warning to further investigate. This gives me an EDGE.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>What role does the USD/SEK have to play?</u>\r\n\r\nThis Forex pair is very closely correlated to flagging USD movement whether weakness or strength. It is like the USD/CAD it tends to lead the USD, if that makes sense. More often or not if the USD has been weak, if there is USD strength trying to get back into the market the USD/SEK and USD/CAD tend to show the change in sentiment first. They are ahead of the DXY because these currencies are lightly weighted in the index, which is so heavily dominated by the EUR (over 50%). This gives me an EDGE.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>What are pressure charts?</u>\r\n\r\nThese are basically charts that instead of being based on prices, are charts based upon buying and selling. They can help with direction.\r\n\r\nWhen looking at candlesticks say for a 60-minute chart, at the end of the 60 minutes you have a candle created that is either part of a bullish or bearish formation of candles or on its own sets a tone or an indication of what the following candle should look like.\r\n\r\nFor example a “ Hammer” would indicate that for the next period the currency pair should be moving upwards.\r\n\r\nIf I am looking at pressure charts for the same 60-minute period I am seeing the relationship between buyers and sellers develop in the same way during the hour but if there are more buyers than sellers this will highlighted by the pressure charts based upon strength of the buying signals and the commitment to a particular direction. It can make me enter a trade at a better price point without waiting for the candle confirmation. This gives me an EDGE.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>Do I have these lead indicators across all my screens when trading?</u>\r\n\r\nNo, due to limits on space and the numbers of eyes I have, I cannot afford this. I am a trader. I trade almost every day. The lead indicators are my EDGE to my trading. I look at them all as I gather my thoughts for the day and I have the DXY, S&amp;P, Oil and Gold split into four on one screen, with the ability to check Copper and USD/SEK very quickly.\r\n\r\nMy other three screens are used for my currency pairs / brokers and pressure charts focused on Forex.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>What is my start-off routine each day?</u>\r\n\r\nFirst things first, let Ozzy and Aoife (my dogs) out into the back yard and get some coffee going.\r\n\r\nCheck existing OPEN trades if I have not already done so via my iPad prior to getting up. Adjust / advise PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers if required.\r\n\r\nLook at the “Holy Trinity” first… that is GOLD, OIL and COPPER. Note the highs and lows…post-it note on screen or place horizontal lines on screens as well…. depends on my mood.\r\n\r\nCheck the DXY… make a note of highs and lows, and put a Fibonacci level on a 240 or 480-minute chart on the screen.\r\n\r\nCheck the U.S. markets futures, DOW, S&amp;P and Nasdaq and look at the DAX and FTSE.\r\n\r\nMore coffee.\r\n\r\nThen look around all the currency pairs for high probability trades and advise PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers of set-ups and place trades with my brokers.\r\n\r\nIf required send out a few tweets to PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers on what my thoughts are and if they differ from that last communication.\r\n\r\nRead and answer communications from subscribers.\r\n\r\nSettle in for the next 12 hours or so behind the desk.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>Do I look at the Relative Strength Indicator (RSi)?</u>\r\n\r\nYes I do, but I do not consider it the be all and end all of making a trade. There are many instances when the RSi it behind the move. I look at it and sometimes I will pass comment on it to my subscribers when suggesting a trade. However, it is not really an indicator that I use all the time. I will use it more times to prevent me from taking a trade that is borderline with my TRADING PLAN.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nIn summary, my lead indicators may not be your lead indicators and like most things in trading it is “Whatever floats yer boat”.\r\n\r\nIf whatever you do works for you do not change. This works for me and it helps me. Having subscribers helps me focus because I do not want to suggest poor or weak trades. I have to have a good reason why I take any trade, it may not just be based upon a Fibonacci level, which can be enough on many occasions, but maybe a confirmation of an inter-market relationship or correlation as well being there to also support the trade set-up.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n	<li><strong> WHAT’S ON MY MIND:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>THE DIVERGENCE TRADE IS STILL ON</strong>\r\n<strong>and</strong>\r\n<strong>MY FUNDAMENTAL TRADING PLAN THRU TO THE</strong>\r\n<strong>YEAR END IS STILL IN PLAY</strong></p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nJust prior to my break from trading over the summer I wrote about my FUNDAMENTAL TRADING PLAN and how I envisaged this moving forward given that at that time the FOMC still hadn’t raised rates. In fact, at that stage in July I was very much of the opinion that that the FOMC would hike in September.\r\n\r\nAs we know the FOMC remained on hold…buggers.\r\n\r\nI have been asked by a number of subscribers, after the FOMC hold and another batch of “FED SPEAK”; if my plan is still intact?\r\n\r\nI believe that it is pretty much still there and I have been delaying and delaying getting my trades set up and in position, so that my subscribers and myself are ready to take advantage of the FED move.\r\n\r\nThe core factors to my TRADING PLAN are still intact as far as I am concerned: -\r\n\r\nThe FED is tightening monetary policy.\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>Other central banks with the possible exception of the BOE are on a loosening monetary policy.</li>\r\n	<li>China is slowing down.</li>\r\n	<li>Australian and New Zealand economies are under pressure.</li>\r\n	<li>Oil is moving lower. Price expectations being talked about now are even lower than those back in July.</li>\r\n	<li>Commodity prices are still under pressure.</li>\r\n	<li>The SNB is still a loose cannon and could intervene at any time to weaken the CHF back to prior “PEG REMOVAL DAY” levels.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nMy FUNDAMENTAL TRADING PLAN is based around divergence. It is based around trading this divergence.\r\n\r\nI have stated many times before in my blogs that divergence is a strong reason to trade if it stems from central bank monetary policy. My plan until at least the end of the year is based upon such a plan with FED taking the lead.\r\n\r\nIt is based around a strong USD.\r\n\r\nThis will give me trading confidence based on the divergences between central banks FED v ECB, FED v RBA, FED v RBNZ, FED v BOC, FED v BOJ etc.\r\n\r\nIt is not just trading the USD major pairs; the cross-rate pairs are also of great interest once the divergent policy is established.\r\n\r\nAll I want now is for the FED to stop dithering and raise rates so my plan can commence in full swing.\r\n\r\nI have my target levels, for my target pairs already identified. It is now just a matter of time and being patient.\r\n\r\nEven though it is expected that the FOMC will raise rates, the timing is still not in place and to start with the plan now would involve some risk ahead of the announcement of US interest rates increasing. At the same time, there are trades that jump out that will be in line with FED policy that can be established prior to a rate announcement and should not be too badly affected if a further delay is advised.\r\n\r\nOver the coming days I will decide and place my interim strategy on these trades and have them in position knowing in advance when and where I will add to the initial position sizes.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:\r\n</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n3.1: SUMMARY OF YEAR TO DATE PERFORMANCE - 2015:\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">PREMIUM SERVICE – COST INCOME ANALYSIS (USD):</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">EMANATING FROM TRADE SET-UPS – to September 26th 2015.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">MICRO LOT TRADER - 507 trades cost to trade = $50.70\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 507 trades = <strong>$803.30</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">MINI LOT TRADER - 507 trades cost to trade = $507.00\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 507 trades = <strong>$8,033.00</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">STANDARD LOT TRADER - 507 trades cost to trade = $5,070.00\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 507 trades = <strong>$80,330.00</strong></p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n3.2: PREMIUM SERVICE – TRADE SUMMARIES MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PS-PROFITS1-27092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6481\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PS-PROFITS1-27092015.png\" alt=\"PS PROFITS1 27092015\" width=\"451\" height=\"426\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PS-PROFITS2-27092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6482\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PS-PROFITS2-27092015.png\" alt=\"PS PROFITS2 27092015\" width=\"453\" height=\"411\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNOTES:\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>If the above return from Forex Trading interests you go to my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> and check out the subscription options and special promotions under the tabs “PREMIUM SERVICE” and “PROMOTIONS”</li>\r\n	<li>The performance above is based off single-lot trade sizes.</li>\r\n	<li>THE PREMIUM SERVICE has subscribers with broker accounts of sizes ranging from $2,500 to over $100,000. A profitable trade is a profitable trade. It is all about trading according to the size of your broker account (EFFECTIVE POSITION SIZING) and applying RISK MANAGEMENT principles at all times.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) SUBSCRIBER CONTENT:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(The following section is additional data, thoughts, and ideas exclusively for PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) subscribers)\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n	<li><strong> MY FINAL THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nOVERVIEW OF TRADING TIPS &amp; THOUGHTS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD:\r\n\r\nLast week was a difficult week. I still cannot explain to myself why some of the FX moves happened and why. I suppose at the end of the day, it’s nice to know, but it’s not essential as all we have to do is react and remain calm and in control to the best of our abilities.\r\n\r\nIn times when the markets are difficult, I sometimes have the best performances and last week was one of those, my subscriber trading business, the premium service, doubled its September income last week.\r\n\r\nHow did this happen in such a difficult week?\r\n\r\nQuite simple, it was increased flexibility, not trading to full risk tolerance at the outset of the trade. That means not trading a full-size position. Keeping a little in reserve meant that risk management principles remained intact and trade plan objectives were not broken.\r\n\r\nI believe that until the FOMC stops all this nonsense on dithering and makes a decision to raise the FED minimum rate, we will continue to be news driven and those are the worst markets to trade inside. Many times we trade on a lie, complete fiction.\r\n\r\nIf we remain flexible as traders, we stand a good chance of reaching a point when we can achieve longevity in trading and provide an income.\r\n\r\nWe still have thin trading conditions too many times in my opinion and until this changes we need to trade with this in mind.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nTake care.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nhttps://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\r\nBLOG REF #168\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u> </u></strong>','THE DIVERGENCE TRADE IS STILL ON','','inherit','closed','closed','','6507-revision-v1','','','2015-09-26 16:51:11','2015-09-26 21:51:11','',6507,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/6507-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(6509,1,'2015-09-26 16:52:56','2015-09-26 21:52:56','<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>THE PREMIUM SERVICE</strong>\r\n<strong>from the</strong>\r\n<strong>WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU</strong>\r\n<strong>“The Home of Single Lot Trading”</strong></p>\r\n\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li><strong> THE VIEW FROM MY TRADE DESK:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nLOOKING BACKWARDS, FORWARDS &amp; SIDEWAYS (FOR GOOD MEASURE) AT THE FX MARKET:\r\n\r\n1.1: LOOKING BACKWARDS:\r\n\r\nFollowing the FOMC hold on September 17<sup>th</sup>, last week was the time that I felt it important to concentrate on the speeches given by central bank presidents / governors. We had Poloz (BOC), Draghi (ECB) and further comments from Janet Yellen.\r\n\r\nPoloz, I feel is totally detached from reality at times. In Canada we are a month away from a general election and I feel he is just a pawn right now trying to keep things together. The Canadian economy is in the sh*t. There is low confidence and great uncertainty about what party will be triumphant at the election in under a month. There will be a rate cut happening very soon in an attempt to kick start matters, and I would say sooner rather than later. Canada is NOT the USA. It borders the USA but that is about it. The USA is not yet a commodity currency but the Canadian is. There is a wealth of commodities over and above oil in Canada. Oil may be dominant and trendy in the headlines right now and having a great effect on the “loonie”, which, we should not lose sight of.\r\n\r\nThe fact is oil has a massive supply and demand issue, which is not going away and as a result of this the price of oil will be under constant scrutiny and downward pressures. This creates doom and gloom on the TV news and lowers consumer confidence in the economy.\r\n\r\nIf there was no election, I feel that Poloz would have cut last time around. The cut is coming in my opinion at either the next meeting due on the 21<sup>st</sup> October, two days after the election on the 19<sup>th</sup> October, or the one following just in time to boost Christmas spending in the malls / stores and shops.\r\n\r\nBack to his speech…. If you could imagine touching the wettest fish, from the darkest deepest parts of the ocean, you are coming close. It was a non-committal boring non-event. Looking at the BOC web site he has a few opportunities prior to the BOC rate announcement to inspire and motivate us…. lets see.\r\n\r\nDraghi spoke to the European Parliament; the word on the street was that he would be very dovish about extensions to quantitative easing (QE); the reality was completely different. He was very matter of fact and basically kept matters low key, nothing new.\r\n\r\nThen we had an eventful Janet Yellen speech in Boston, from which, she had dehydration issues and it looked like she stopped her speech early. Thankfully, from a health perspective she was able to keep to her business schedule. From a market perspective this time she was hawkish.\r\n\r\nI am getting a little confused with the FED at the moment. Yellen appears to use dialogue that has the markets confused. I think that she is relatively consistent but the markets require everything on a platter. I think she has to imagine that she was talking to a four-year old child so that it is easy for the likes of Wall Street to understand.\r\n\r\nHer dialogue is not being understood. Maybe, if the key sentences were tattooed on a stripper’s chest or bottom, the key words and phrases would be read, because right now I feel Wall Street does not listen or maybe quite possibly just doesn’t understand.\r\n\r\nI am still confused why 12 out of the 14 voting members are in favour of an interest rate increase before the end of 2015, could be treated as dovish. I know it’s all about the headlines in her speeches and how the media strikes the balance. Maybe as I said, if the key messages were delivered via a stripper’s bottom or chest, people might take more notice and these messages might be read more closely and perhaps even understood.\r\n\r\nI know the key deliverables in the speeches are the headlines but all the clues are there. I do think that Janet Yellen has a part to play here. It is a game with the media because all the media wants is news and if they cannot get news on facts who cares, they will create news based upon a loosely collated bundle of snippets and off the story goes factual or not.\r\n\r\nI am not advocating that Janet Yellen walks chair to chair lap dancing with the key deliverable’s tattooed to parts of her body…Holy Mother of God there’s a picture to ruin your Sunday Lunch, in fact, any meal time…my God it could sour milk. What I am saying is maybe she should do a Monty Python style arm gesture when something important is about to be said that the media should take note of. From my perspective it will certainly get more interest and its better than counting how many fecking times she says the word transitory.\r\n\r\nGetting back on track….\r\n\r\nShe was hawkish in Boston but I think all the hawkish stuff has been there for months, the media has just not found it sexy enough to focus on. They have rather glibly clung to the question of when are rates increasing, rather than concentrating on what the effects are going to be when they go up. I know, my focus on debating the effects may not sell many commercials on TV (unless my stripper idea caught on of course) but the FED is giving away all the clues via all the economic papers it releases. We are being fed headlines, which the media believes to be sexy news. We as traders need to look behind these.\r\n\r\nApart from the “bank heads” talk, nothing else really took my attention in the past week.\r\n\r\nBiggest non-news event of the week: -\r\n\r\nTHE GREEK ELECTION – Tsipras and his party have about 60 days to pass 80% of the conditions of the latest bailout through parliament. The creditors front ran all the deadline dates because they do not trust GREECE.\r\n\r\nWatch this space the “Greek Bailout Act IV” coming soon….\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n1.2: LOOKING FORWARDS:\r\n\r\nMAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:\r\n\r\n(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market other than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to <a href=\"http://www.forexfactory.com\">www.forexfactory.com</a> and <a href=\"http://www.tradingeconomics.com\">www.tradingeconomics.com</a> for a more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).\r\nSUNDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: USD – Consumer Confidence.\r\nTUESDAY: NZD – ANZ Business Confidence.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – ADP Non-Farm Employment Change.\r\nWEDNESDAY: CAD – GDP.\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – Janet Yellen (FED) speaks… make sure she has water!\r\nWEDNESDAY: CNY – PMi data.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: AUD – Retail Sales.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: USD – Non-Farm Payrolls.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMY THOUGHTS ON THE NEWS ITEMS THIS COMING WEEK:\r\n\r\nObviously, the biggie is Friday’s US jobs report and I believe that this will dominate all the media during the week. It will in all probability be based around the topic of “Will the FED hike? or won’t the FED hike?”, based on the job numbers. I am really poor at guessing what the numbers will be and what the immediate market reaction will be and frankly that is what it is, just a guess and I am not playing anymore. I hate NFP days, I have more failures than successes on NFP days and I hate them. I think this Friday will be the day to start the next blog early!!\r\n\r\nApart from NFP, consumer and business confidence numbers on Tuesday from the US and New Zealand is always worth noting and on Wednesday we have Chinese PMI data.\r\n\r\nThursday evening (for me) Australian retail sales will be a mover in spite of NFP following within 12 hours.\r\n\r\nI am writing about my FUNDAMENTAL views later in this blog and these are basically the key news events for me based upon my trading plan through to the year-end.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMY KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS THIS WEEK FOR USD MAJORS<strong>:\r\n</strong>In this section I have as usual kept my charts as minimalist as possible. All readers regardless of level of experience should be able to follow my thoughts from my comments to the levels on the charts with ease.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nEUR/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.1191\r\n\r\nWe are basically in a trading range from the lows of 1.1085 to 1.1460. If you enjoy range trading, happy days! If you are waiting for a breakout and a momentum trade, we will require a big moving news event to enable this to happen in my opinion. This Friday we have Non-Farm payrolls from the U.S., this may be the catalyst required.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURUSDDaily27092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6493\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURUSDDaily27092015.png\" alt=\"EURUSDDaily27092015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.5170\r\n\r\nUnder pressure from all sides, the cable looked to be at the edge of a cliff last Friday. There is good support ahead at the 61.8% retracement Fibonacci level of 1.5085. After this 1.5000 will obviously provide something as a nice round psychological number, however I fear that the cable could be heading a great deal lower. I hate trading the GBP/USD as it is the master of false moves, and, as soon as you feel that you finally have a trade under control it can quickly reverse on you.\r\n\r\nGiven all the recent talk about the UK possibly raising rates, this now appears to be on the horizon for 2017 (How this can be predicted this far out, amazes me). However, never rule out the best bullsh**ing bank governor out there, “Mark Carney” who can mislead the markets and then jump into his JCB to get himself out of his self produced hole.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GBPUSDWeekly27092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6494\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GBPUSDWeekly27092015.png\" alt=\"GBPUSDWeekly27092015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.7003\r\n\r\nA nice bounce back from a near death experience is the best way to describe the Aussie at the end of last week. Lets face facts all the cards are stacked against this pair not falling towards 0.6500. Commodity prices, China, future (probable) FED monetary policy and the RBA are all doing their bit to weaken this currency. What happens should equities fall as well; in my opinion, a drop to at least 0.6500.\r\n\r\nKey support now lies at 0.6940 and a break below this level exposes a greater downside move.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/AUDUSDDaily27092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6492\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/AUDUSDDaily27092015.png\" alt=\"AUDUSDDaily27092015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.6376\r\n\r\nCross-rate do affect the USD majors. The AUD/NZD, GBP/NZD and EUR/NZD came under tremendous pressure on Friday last week, and this kept the NZD/USD elevated.\r\n\r\nThe currency will be used as toilet paper soon as it is still grossly overvalued and RBNZ still feel it is at levels that are too high.\r\n\r\nWe are presently in a trading range from the lows of 0.6240 to 0.6500 as seen on the chart below. Just above 0.6400 should act as resistance, which should see the downside move return.\r\n\r\nMy longer-term target for this pair is close to 0.5700.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/NZDUSDDaily27092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6495\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/NZDUSDDaily27092015.png\" alt=\"NZDUSDDaily27092015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.3334\r\n\r\nWe saw a false breakout move last Thursday, which saw this pair stretch the upside to 1.3418. Support is good at 1.3300 and I see this as the base now. Moving forward a break lower than 1.3300 makes me feel that the upside breakout could be delayed somewhat. This pair is still very bullish and ultimately I see a 1.4000 level being achieved, but we have to crack 1.3418 first obviously.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCADDaily27092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6496\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCADDaily27092015.png\" alt=\"USDCADDaily27092015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF - Weekly Closing Price: 0.9774\r\n\r\nThis pair is on the cusp of a major move higher, which may go with or without the EUR/USD breaking down. The SNB are in my opinion getting ready to flex those muscles once again. We have a great base now at 0.9650, the 61.8% Fibonacci level. Once this pair breaks through 0.9850 I believe it will be off to parity shortly thereafter and beyond. If the SNB is required to help move the EUR/CHF through 1.1000 this move will benefit all CHF pairs. Premium Service subscribers should note the CHF cross-rate charts later.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCHFDaily27092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6497\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCHFDaily27092015.png\" alt=\"USDCHFDaily27092015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY - Weekly Closing Price: 120.55\r\n\r\nWe are in a wide trading range of 118.75 to 122.00. I think that this pair will be best to trade after the FED rate announcement and when we know the reaction from the equity markets following the announcement. Up until then, I think it will be much a do about nothing with daily chop moves in one direction and then the other.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDJPYDaily27092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6498\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDJPYDaily27092015.png\" alt=\"USDJPYDaily27092015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n1.3: LOOKING SIDEWAYS (FOR GOOD MEASURE):\r\n\r\nI had several communications this week based upon my reference to the KEY INDICATORS that I look at and wrote about last week. So for those readers I am going to elaborate this time around.\r\n\r\nMy lead indicators are: -\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>OIL</li>\r\n	<li>GOLD</li>\r\n	<li>COPPER</li>\r\n	<li>DXY index</li>\r\n	<li>S&amp;P index</li>\r\n	<li>USD/CAD</li>\r\n	<li>AUD/USD</li>\r\n	<li>AUD/JPY</li>\r\n	<li>USD/SEK</li>\r\n	<li>FX PRESSURE CHARTS</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nLead indicators for me are all about trading with an EDGE.\r\n\r\nI will try to answer as best I can the questions raised.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>Why do I have lead indicators? </u>\r\n\r\nThis is because all the markets, precious metals, equities, commodity, bonds and Forex are all inter-linked one way or another. GOLD and OIL are priced in USD and therefore movements in GOLD and OIL will affect the USD.\r\n\r\nIf I see a bullish or bearish move in GOLD, this will have an effect on the USD. Movements in Oil will affect the oil-based economies like Canada, Mexico and Norway and therefore when WTi moves so will the CAD, MXN and NOK.\r\n\r\nMovement in Copper affects so many industries and the AUD currency moves in relation to copper movements amongst general commodity price moves. Copper imports/exports are essential to follow to see if a country is cutting back or expanding. These trends in Copper contribute to PMi and construction data.\r\n\r\nThese factors give me an EDGE.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>Do these indicators matter as much if you are a longer-term trader?</u>\r\n\r\nYes, I believe they matter all the time as all market components have trends, and, trends / momentums / Fibonacci levels matter across all markets whether it\'s a day or potential swing trade set up or even a longer term position that you are looking at.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>What role does the AUD/JPY play?</u>\r\n\r\nWhen there is zero economic data, the equity markets mainly drive the Forex market moves. Correlations do matter and they do count (PREMIUM SERVICE GOLD subscribers can find several articles under the EDUCATION tab on this subject), the AUD/JPY moves are more or less correlated to moves with the S&amp;P index. Therefore if the S&amp;P is under pressure it is more than likely that the AUD/JPY will also be under similar pressure. If they are NOT moving in sync this is a warning to further investigate. This gives me an EDGE.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>What role does the USD/SEK have to play?</u>\r\n\r\nThis Forex pair is very closely correlated to flagging USD movement whether weakness or strength. It is like the USD/CAD it tends to lead the USD, if that makes sense. More often or not if the USD has been weak, if there is USD strength trying to get back into the market the USD/SEK and USD/CAD tend to show the change in sentiment first. They are ahead of the DXY because these currencies are lightly weighted in the index, which is so heavily dominated by the EUR (over 50%). This gives me an EDGE.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>What are pressure charts?</u>\r\n\r\nThese are basically charts that instead of being based on prices, are charts based upon buying and selling. They can help with direction.\r\n\r\nWhen looking at candlesticks say for a 60-minute chart, at the end of the 60 minutes you have a candle created that is either part of a bullish or bearish formation of candles or on its own sets a tone or an indication of what the following candle should look like.\r\n\r\nFor example a “ Hammer” would indicate that for the next period the currency pair should be moving upwards.\r\n\r\nIf I am looking at pressure charts for the same 60-minute period I am seeing the relationship between buyers and sellers develop in the same way during the hour but if there are more buyers than sellers this will highlighted by the pressure charts based upon strength of the buying signals and the commitment to a particular direction. It can make me enter a trade at a better price point without waiting for the candle confirmation. This gives me an EDGE.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>Do I have these lead indicators across all my screens when trading?</u>\r\n\r\nNo, due to limits on space and the numbers of eyes I have, I cannot afford this. I am a trader. I trade almost every day. The lead indicators are my EDGE to my trading. I look at them all as I gather my thoughts for the day and I have the DXY, S&amp;P, Oil and Gold split into four on one screen, with the ability to check Copper and USD/SEK very quickly.\r\n\r\nMy other three screens are used for my currency pairs / brokers and pressure charts focused on Forex.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>What is my start-off routine each day?</u>\r\n\r\nFirst things first, let Ozzy and Aoife (my dogs) out into the back yard and get some coffee going.\r\n\r\nCheck existing OPEN trades if I have not already done so via my iPad prior to getting up. Adjust / advise PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers if required.\r\n\r\nLook at the “Holy Trinity” first… that is GOLD, OIL and COPPER. Note the highs and lows…post-it note on screen or place horizontal lines on screens as well…. depends on my mood.\r\n\r\nCheck the DXY… make a note of highs and lows, and put a Fibonacci level on a 240 or 480-minute chart on the screen.\r\n\r\nCheck the U.S. markets futures, DOW, S&amp;P and Nasdaq and look at the DAX and FTSE.\r\n\r\nMore coffee.\r\n\r\nThen look around all the currency pairs for high probability trades and advise PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers of set-ups and place trades with my brokers.\r\n\r\nIf required send out a few tweets to PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers on what my thoughts are and if they differ from that last communication.\r\n\r\nRead and answer communications from subscribers.\r\n\r\nSettle in for the next 12 hours or so behind the desk.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>Do I look at the Relative Strength Indicator (RSi)?</u>\r\n\r\nYes I do, but I do not consider it the be all and end all of making a trade. There are many instances when the RSi it behind the move. I look at it and sometimes I will pass comment on it to my subscribers when suggesting a trade. However, it is not really an indicator that I use all the time. I will use it more times to prevent me from taking a trade that is borderline with my TRADING PLAN.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nIn summary, my lead indicators may not be your lead indicators and like most things in trading it is “Whatever floats yer boat”.\r\n\r\nIf whatever you do works for you do not change. This works for me and it helps me. Having subscribers helps me focus because I do not want to suggest poor or weak trades. I have to have a good reason why I take any trade, it may not just be based upon a Fibonacci level, which can be enough on many occasions, but maybe a confirmation of an inter-market relationship or correlation as well being there to also support the trade set-up.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n	<li><strong> WHAT’S ON MY MIND:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>THE DIVERGENCE TRADE IS STILL ON</strong>\r\n<strong>and</strong>\r\n<strong>MY FUNDAMENTAL TRADING PLAN THRU TO THE</strong>\r\n<strong>YEAR END IS STILL IN PLAY</strong></p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nJust prior to my break from trading over the summer I wrote about my FUNDAMENTAL TRADING PLAN and how I envisaged this moving forward given that at that time the FOMC still hadn’t raised rates. In fact, at that stage in July I was very much of the opinion that that the FOMC would hike in September.\r\n\r\nAs we know the FOMC remained on hold…buggers.\r\n\r\nI have been asked by a number of subscribers, after the FOMC hold and another batch of “FED SPEAK”; if my plan is still intact?\r\n\r\nI believe that it is pretty much still there and I have been delaying and delaying getting my trades set up and in position, so that my subscribers and myself are ready to take advantage of the FED move.\r\n\r\nThe core factors to my TRADING PLAN are still intact as far as I am concerned: -\r\n\r\nThe FED is tightening monetary policy.\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>Other central banks with the possible exception of the BOE are on a loosening monetary policy.</li>\r\n	<li>China is slowing down.</li>\r\n	<li>Australian and New Zealand economies are under pressure.</li>\r\n	<li>Oil is moving lower. Price expectations being talked about now are even lower than those back in July.</li>\r\n	<li>Commodity prices are still under pressure.</li>\r\n	<li>The SNB is still a loose cannon and could intervene at any time to weaken the CHF back to prior “PEG REMOVAL DAY” levels.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nMy FUNDAMENTAL TRADING PLAN is based around divergence. It is based around trading this divergence.\r\n\r\nI have stated many times before in my blogs that divergence is a strong reason to trade if it stems from central bank monetary policy. My plan until at least the end of the year is based upon such a plan with FED taking the lead.\r\n\r\nIt is based around a strong USD.\r\n\r\nThis will give me trading confidence based on the divergences between central banks FED v ECB, FED v RBA, FED v RBNZ, FED v BOC, FED v BOJ etc.\r\n\r\nIt is not just trading the USD major pairs; the cross-rate pairs are also of great interest once the divergent policy is established.\r\n\r\nAll I want now is for the FED to stop dithering and raise rates so my plan can commence in full swing.\r\n\r\nI have my target levels, for my target pairs already identified. It is now just a matter of time and being patient.\r\n\r\nEven though it is expected that the FOMC will raise rates, the timing is still not in place and to start with the plan now would involve some risk ahead of the announcement of US interest rates increasing. At the same time, there are trades that jump out that will be in line with FED policy that can be established prior to a rate announcement and should not be too badly affected if a further delay is advised.\r\n\r\nOver the coming days I will decide and place my interim strategy on these trades and have them in position knowing in advance when and where I will add to the initial position sizes.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:\r\n</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n3.1: SUMMARY OF YEAR TO DATE PERFORMANCE - 2015:\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">PREMIUM SERVICE – COST INCOME ANALYSIS (USD):</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">EMANATING FROM TRADE SET-UPS – to September 26th 2015.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">MICRO LOT TRADER - 507 trades cost to trade = $50.70\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 507 trades = <strong>$803.30</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">MINI LOT TRADER - 507 trades cost to trade = $507.00\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 507 trades = <strong>$8,033.00</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">STANDARD LOT TRADER - 507 trades cost to trade = $5,070.00\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 507 trades = <strong>$80,330.00</strong></p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n3.2: PREMIUM SERVICE – TRADE SUMMARIES MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PS-PROFITS1-27092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6481\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PS-PROFITS1-27092015.png\" alt=\"PS PROFITS1 27092015\" width=\"451\" height=\"426\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PS-PROFITS2-27092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6482\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PS-PROFITS2-27092015.png\" alt=\"PS PROFITS2 27092015\" width=\"453\" height=\"411\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNOTES:\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>If the above return from Forex Trading interests you go to my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> and check out the subscription options and special promotions under the tabs “PREMIUM SERVICE” and “PROMOTIONS”</li>\r\n	<li>The performance above is based off single-lot trade sizes.</li>\r\n	<li>THE PREMIUM SERVICE has subscribers with broker accounts of sizes ranging from $2,500 to over $100,000. A profitable trade is a profitable trade. It is all about trading according to the size of your broker account (EFFECTIVE POSITION SIZING) and applying RISK MANAGEMENT principles at all times.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) SUBSCRIBER CONTENT:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(The following section is additional data, thoughts, and ideas exclusively for PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) subscribers)\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n	<li><strong> MY FINAL THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nOVERVIEW OF TRADING TIPS &amp; THOUGHTS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD:\r\n\r\nLast week was a difficult week. I still cannot explain to myself why some of the FX moves happened and why. I suppose at the end of the day, it’s nice to know, but it’s not essential as all we have to do is react and remain calm and in control to the best of our abilities.\r\n\r\nIn times when the markets are difficult, I sometimes have the best performances and last week was one of those, my subscriber trading business, the premium service, doubled its September income last week.\r\n\r\nHow did this happen in such a difficult week?\r\n\r\nQuite simple, it was increased flexibility, not trading to full risk tolerance at the outset of the trade. That means not trading a full-size position. Keeping a little in reserve meant that risk management principles remained intact and trade plan objectives were not broken.\r\n\r\nI believe that until the FOMC stops all this nonsense on dithering and makes a decision to raise the FED minimum rate, we will continue to be news driven and those are the worst markets to trade inside. Many times we trade on a lie, complete fiction.\r\n\r\nIf we remain flexible as traders, we stand a good chance of reaching a point when we can achieve longevity in trading and provide an income.\r\n\r\nWe still have thin trading conditions too many times in my opinion and until this changes we need to trade with this in mind.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nTake care.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nhttps://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\r\nBLOG REF #168\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u> </u></strong>','THE DIVERGENCE TRADE IS STILL ON','','inherit','closed','closed','','6507-revision-v1','','','2015-09-26 16:52:56','2015-09-26 21:52:56','',6507,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/6507-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),