<span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>1. INTRODUCTION:</strong></span>

Happy New Year 2013 to everyone and I hope you all had a great Christmas, or whatever you may have celebrated over the recent holiday break.

Back in the chair again for only a couple of days this week, so this will be a very brief  "Drive-Thru" and as they used to say on the BBC  - 'normal service will be resumed shortly'....in my case, it will be next week.

I am still familiarizing myself with all the charts. The USD/JPY continues to surge onwards and upwards. The inverted "Head and Shoulders" pattern on the weekly chart is definitely in play with the measured move target around 92.00. The EUR/USD under some pressure, the break below 1.3100 should place a move towards 1.2800 in the slot. However, the reaction after Non Farm payrolls yesterday caused an initial 50-60 point break higher off the psychologically important round number support at 1.3000. I am expecting the downside pressure to return next week, but this is not guaranteed as we closed above 1.3050.

Apart from the JPY relentless rise (weakening), nothing much else has really changed. The major USD pairs are in the main still in the trading range channels that they were prior to the holidays. Being honest with you, I am struggling to feel the directions of the majors from the charts, from a macro level fundamentally I know where I feel they should be heading but technically I need verification by a true breakout/breakdown to support my beliefs. This has really been the case since October last year. At that time I was really heading up some great USD long positions, believing that the USD would strengthen across the board. This did not happen. As I have said before, the Commodity currencies really hold the key, they usually lead the way. The big problem is that equities have held up well causing a little bit of stalemate, as commodity currencies have been range bound.

As a result of this I am trading small positions.....waiting for the trades to come to me.

The trades that I am immediately interested in are: USD/JPY long and EUR/USD short. I will look hard at the AUD/USD short from above 1.0500 and the NZD/USD short from over 0.8300. The USD/CAD long I will ignore given the stress this pair caused me last year running up to the break before the holidays.

I will be back on twitter next week and I will tweet entries. I want to try and get back to holding trades for days/weeks rather than hours, so this year I will be making a conscious effort to be spot on with entries.

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<span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>2. THE VIEW FROM MY TRADING DESK:</strong></span>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>HAS THE FED  MOVED THE GOALPOSTS?</strong></p>
This big news for me this week was on Thursday afternoon, the minutes from the December 2012 FED meeting. I was expecting nada...nothing at all.......we got 2013.

Some of Ben's hangers-on are calling for the unlimited QE that was only very recently upped to $85 Billion purchases per month to end in 2013 and not the infinity date that was circulating of 2015. Yet again we have a little uncertainty in the markets, and, the markets hate uncertainty. The cry baby's on Wall Street need to have not just consistency, which, I can totally understand but they also want their hands held and a cuddle from Uncle Ben. (I do not mean the guy that makes all the rice dishes either) I mean Uncle Ben....the most powerful man in the world.

This change of date, or mere mention of it, in fact there really was no date in the first place if the truth be told, caused a bit of a wobble in the Fx markets. Wall Street (God Love them all) believed infinity meant infinity and that their pockets and wallets would be continually fed $$$ by Uncle Ben. <span style="color: #3366ff;"><span style="color: #000000;">I believe that the FED has already started its pullback from the "Date Cliff" by starting sound-bytes confirming the peg to the unemployment rate of 6.5% is the trigger and not a calendar date. When you look forward the chances of the U.S. unemployment rate being less than 7% at the end of 2013 looks pretty ambitious. I am thinking at least 2014 at the earliest and that blows hot water over the 2013 date from the December minutes.</span> <span style="color: #000000;">The only chance of a 6.5% rate being achieved in my opinion is if 2 or 3 millions of Americans give up the chase of looking for a job and de-register from the system. Stranger things than this have happened....but I think even for that to happen is highly unlikely.</span></span>

The 2013 date put the fear of God into Wall Street as the thoughts of  FED tightening and interest rate increases hit home. Whilst, I think this headline is a bit of a loss leader it has without doubt made the market think beyond the next glass of wine at the end of the day. It does however make me think how is the FED going to unwind all of the easing without creating a void. Time will tell on this point. No doubt Ben has his thoughts and views, which he is playing very close to his chest.

From my perspective, the "Goalposts" are still in the same position but I think 2013 was let out quite deliberately as 2015 may become 2014. Infinity will NOT be infinity. The key people around Ben like Janet Yellen are not dissenters, it was the fringe members of the FED committee who were quoted as being the ones talking about easing ending in 2013. Whether they did or did not talk about it is irrelevant now, the message that was wanted to be released has been done in a very clever way without Ben having to do it in a high profile way.....very clever if you ask me. Far too much intelligence shown........Ben could never be a politician.

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<span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>3. MY LONGER-TERM TRADES:</strong></span>

Currently I am in cash. There should be trades in this section next weekend.

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<span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>4. LOOKING AHEAD INTO NEXT WEEK......THE KEY SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS IN THE USD MAJORS:</strong></span>

<strong>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3068</strong>. I was thinking of shorting around 1.3060 yesterday but decided to sit on my hands instead. I will look at this pair probably in the European session on Monday morning. I really hate trading the Sunday night in Asia. The initial resistance lies at 1.3100, yesterday we stopped at 1.3090, which, was interesting but I have a feeling that Sunday will see a test of 1.3100 unless we have some news over the weekend to move pressure to the short side of this pair. Long side resistance is at 1.3100 then 1.3150. Support lies at 1.3050, then 1.3000 and 1.2970.

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/EURUSD-W-050113.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-1351" alt="EURUSD W 050113" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/EURUSD-W-050113.png" width="660" /></a>

<strong>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.6068.</strong> Cable sold off quite well during the week and retraced a little, but like the EUR/USD only a little yesterday. We still closed below 1.6100, in fact 1.6070 is a resistance point and that was where we closed. I am expecting GBP/USD to come under pressure next week and resume it's move lower. I am looking at 1.5750 as a level to aim for. There is NO good news in the UK. Every piece of good news is a temporary blip and the Brit "Stiff Upper Lip" is in play. If we break lower on Monday expect more during the coming week. Support levels are 1.6000, then 1.5980, then 1.5920, 1.5850 and 1.5750. There are few minor stop off points on the way in addition but these are more noticeable to look out for on the way lower. Should we break out to the long side after 1.6100, we target 1.6300 again.

<strong>AUD/USD: Closing Price 1.0479.</strong> If we peak above 1.0520, I will be in short with a stop at 1.0580. 1.0450, then 1.0400 and the biggie at 1.0350 are the key support levels to the down side.

<strong>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8309.</strong> I will be looking to enter short on Monday with this pair. My initial targets will be 0.8250, then 0.8200 then 0.8150. Long side resistance should we break higher is at 0.8350 and then 0.8400.

<strong>USD/JPY: Closing Price 88.14</strong>. An inverted Head and Shoulders pattern off the weekly Chart is in play with the measured move coming in at just over 92.00. This pair is rather over-bought to say the least and it appears the entire world of forex is long this pair. That does not mean that it would be great to contrary and short it. Tres dangerous indeed. Shinzo Abe has made his intentions perfectly clear the JPY is to be weakened at all costs....you cannot fight a central bank not even the BOJ. Sanyo were calling for 100.00 in the USD/JPY recently as the target for Abe to aim at. Time will tell whether we get there but this pair could be the Fx trade of the year for most traders. You have to be patient as it consolidates the recent upward moves. If you are looking to get long wait for a pullback. The levels are: - Long side initial resistance 88.50 then 89.00 and 89.50 (but these levels are all minor). Support lies at 87.50 a great place to establish a long trade I think.

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/USDJPY-M-050113.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-1350" alt="USDJPY M 050113" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/USDJPY-M-050113.png" width="660" /></a>

<strong>USD/CAD: Closing Price 0.9871.</strong> Support looms at 0.9850 and then 0.9820. Resistance is back at 0.9920 then 0.9970.

<strong>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.9245.</strong> We sit above key support of  0.9240. Beneath here it's 0.9150. Long side resistance is at 0.9320 and then 0.9350.

<span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>5. MAJOR FOREX NEWS EVENTS ON MY RADAR NEXT WEEK:</strong></span>

Looking at Forex Factory there are several "Red Coded" news events coming up next week that are of interest to all Fx traders but the one that stands out for me is on <span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>Thursday  10th January</strong></span>, the ECB Press Conference. This item coupled with the interest rate decisions of the BOE and ECB always makes my early morning coffee much more fun. It all starts at 7.00am with the BOE rate decision followed by the ECB rate decision at 7.45am  and finally "Super Mario's" Press Conference at 8.30am.

In addition to the ECB Press Conference the same night (Thursday) there is at 8.30pm Chinese CPi year on year data. I am looking to enter trades on both the AUD and NZD so this news will be of interest to me as these currencies are affected by most Chinese data. Australian Trade Balance statistics (Monday) and monthly Retail Sales (Tuesday) both at 7.30pm also catch my eye.

(All times quoted are New York time).

<span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>6. FINAL THOUGHTS:</strong></span>

As mentioned earlier, it may just be me, but I am finding the markets a little difficult at the moment to follow and track effectively.

I think my process was not helped by the fact that I read over the holidays that several banks and major brokers claimed that 2012 was a particularly difficult year all round for traders both professionally and home based alike. It made me think and look back over the year I had, poor/average start, poor second quarter, reasonable third quarter and a flattish final quarter...well that's nothing to write home about, but, I kept my head above water. By all accounts that was an achievement.................I thought it was bloody hard work and that is why 2013 has to be an improvement.

Trade nimble and trade within your account limits and your risk tolerance.

Scott Pickering
The Pip Accumulator
5th January 2013