<h3 style="text-align: center;"><strong>THE PREMIUM SERVICE
</strong><strong>The Home of Single-Lot Trading
www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</strong></h3>
<h4><strong>DATE: 28.06.2015
REFERENCE: #159
</strong><strong>BLOG: THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU</strong></h4>
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<ol>
	<li><strong> INTRODUCTION – THE VIEW FROM MY TRADE DESK:</strong></li>
</ol>
LOOKING BACKWARDS, FORWARDS &amp; SIDEWAYS (FOR GOOD MEASURE) AT THE FX MARKET:

1.1: LOOKING BACKWARDS:

Well my piece on THE EMPIRE STRIKES BACK last week was the kiss of death to the GBP move higher. Thankfully, from my own perspective I had decided to remain light on trades until the GREECE situation with its creditors is settled and because of my plan not to trade - I did not look to set up trades.

Having said that, my article was the kiss of death, the move lower in the GBP/USD was about 150 pips. Given the longer term views of my article this is really just consolidation at higher levels. The cross-rate pairs have been mixed with their moves in the last 7 days but, the pip making opportunities written about in the article are still there, and after the definitive GREECE news is released then we as traders will know what we are dealing with and then, and only then, can we trade, hopefully with directional strength behind our trade set-ups.

In the past 7 days I traded about 15-20 times, very short term scalping trades with about an 80% success rate. With regards to the PREMIUM SERVICE only 4 trades were placed. Two trades were profitable and the other two lost money. The upshot was that the PREMIUM SERVICE added just 1 pip profit in the past 7 days.

I spent a lot of time checking up on news and also scheduling items for our impending house move next month.

It now looks as if the deadline on GREECE, if there is such a thing, has been moved to tomorrow (Saturday 27<sup>th</sup> June) at a hastily arranged EUROGROUP meeting. Frankly, I do NOT believe all these deadlines.

If you recall GREECE has to pay the IMF its cumulative outstanding June repayments on the 30<sup>th</sup> June. However, Lagarde (IMF President) has already stated rather humorously that if GREECE defaults on the 30<sup>th </sup>of June it’s only a technical default. Yeah right my ar**, you go tell your mortgage provider that the fact that you did not make your mortgage payment last month was just technical!

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1.2: LOOKING FORWARDS:

MAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:

(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to <a href="http://www.forexfactory.com">www.forexfactory.com</a> and <a href="http://www.tradingeconomics.com">www.tradingeconomics.com</a> for more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).
SUNDAY: N/A.

MONDAY: NZD – ANZ Business Confidence.

TUESDAY: AUD – “Words of Wisdom” from RBA Governor Glenn Stevens.
TUESDAY: USD – CB Consumer Confidence.
TUESDAY: CNY – Manufacturing PMi and HSBC PMi data.

WEDNESDAY: GBP – Manufacturing PMI.
WEDNESDAY: USD – ADP Non-Farm Employment Change.
WEDNESDAY: USD – ISM Manufacturing PMi.
WEDNESDAY: NZD – GDT Price Index.
WEDNESDAY: AUD – Trade Balance.

THURSDAY: GBP – Construction PMi.
THURSDAY: USD – Non-Farm Employment Change.
THURSDAY: AUD – Retail Sales.

FRIDAY: GBP – Services PMi.

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MY THOUGHTS ON THE NEWS ITEMS THIS COMING WEEK:

From my trading interest perspective there are more highlights on the economic data front this week than there has been of late, last week in particular was a slow week.

My FUNDAMENTAL TRADING PLAN for the remainder of 2015, involves the commodity based currencies at the core, so all news involving the AUD, NZD and CAD in particular interest me greatly.

The NZD will be one of my core currencies in my proposed plan, so with Business Confidence numbers and the Dairy Price Index news this week in addition to Chinese PMi data these items will be of high interest for me.

In addition the Trade balance and Retail Sales numbers from Australia will be interesting to digest as well as the comments from Governor Stevens at the beginning of the week.

The big news this week however that will attract the most attention is the direct USD data. Both employment releases are scheduled (ADP and Non-Farm) but also Consumer Confidence numbers and ISM Manufacturing data, which will be scrutinized closely by the FED. Expect a lot of movement.

Plus not on the calendar is GREECE…. I will say no more.

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1.3: LOOKING SIDEWAYS (FOR GOOD MEASURE):

I spoke with just two subscribers over the past week regarding the current situation within the Forex markets and I had a webinar (extended) session with my peer group.

The consensus after much debate was that in the existing range bound chop fest it was not only the correct idea to stay away from the EUR, but it was probably good just to day trade and even then just sit over your machine like a hawk whilst a trade was live. Basically, my plan that I had had been following for the month of June (trading light) was seen as a great policy.

I knew that I had missed trades and whilst I was pinching myself a little over this fact, however, when I heard of some of the swift reversal moves in currency pairs away from and including the majors, I was glad that I had chosen to remain on the sidelines in $$$.

Hindsight is a wonderful thing as we all know, but in Forex trading sometimes your best trades are the ones that simply do not take and once you have your plan in place you TRADE YOUR PLAN.

This month the PREMIUM SERVICE with the “TRADE LIGHT” approach has still added 605 pips of profit to the bottom line, and, I cannot and should not complain or defend my approach this month given this result so far.

<strong><u> </u></strong>
<ol start="2">
	<li><strong> WHAT’S ON MY MIND: -
THE FUNDAMENTAL TRADERS OVERVIEW:</strong></li>
</ol>
<h3 style="text-align: center;"><strong>WE ARE AT ANOTHER SET OF CROSSROADS…</strong></h3>
Thank goodness Eric Clapton is not paid royalties every time the word “crossroads” is used in my blog. If I earned a dollar for every time I have used the word “crossroads” in my blog to describe a situation in the markets both E.C. and I would have a tidy sum put to one side right now.

We are though, in my opinion, at another set of crossroads.

GREECE, the FED and the CENTRAL BANKS being the directions on offer. That is of course unless I do a EUROZONE approach by burying my head in sand and staying fixed and solid at the crossroads not wanting to move, or I do a Mark Carney turn and run back to where I started.
Several weeks ago I outlined at a macro level in this blog my FUNDAMENTAL TRADING PLAN for the remainder of 2015. It was focused on three main areas: -
<p style="padding-left: 30px;">
<strong>Central Bank divergence.</strong>
<strong>Greece creditor situation being settled to give market direction.</strong>
<strong>Drop in OIL prices as supply and demand economic rules finally kick in.</strong></p>
<p style="padding-left: 30px;">Plus in addition I am cognizant of: -</p>
<p style="padding-left: 30px;"><strong>The China slowdown.</strong>
<strong>World DEFLATIONARY issues and how this supports the CURRENCY WARS.</strong>
<strong>A rather over inflated price of GOLD.</strong>
<strong>Potential equity markets pullback.</strong></p>
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The FOMC certainly placed a stop on matters with “dithering”, but I would not have set up trades until I was aware of how GREECE would be settled.

As you know, my feelings are that we will have a default and I am hoping that the politicians involved will have the balls to actually fix the issue and provide debt relief rather than a can kicking exercise. Time will tell and we have deadlines after deadlines that mean little, plus we have the most bizarre sound-bytes being touted and we have finger pointing.

As I have stated so many times before politicians are messers / muddlers / and definitely NOT problem solvers. GREECE is a problem, it requires fixing. Politicians are experts at pointing fingers at other politicians attributing blame. They are not good at addressing problems. They have egos based primarily on retaining the popular vote; they will do whatever they can to avoid making decisions.

GREECE is a biggie, the biggest test of the EUROZONE so far. There is not a single politician involved who wants to go down in the history books as the one that broke the EUROZONE.

Let me be clear; my direction from the junction is to follow the road with the CENTRAL BANK DIVERGENCE direction. I have learnt the hard way never to trade against the central bank monetary policy for longer term trades, you may get a day trade in the opposite direction but do not be greedy.

Whilst I am moving in the direction towards CENTRAL BANK DIVERGENCE I would like GREECE fixed and the basic economics of supply and demand to hit the Oil markets.

Failure of the divergences to take effect, I believe is a non-starter it is just a question of when. Janet Yellen is definitely guilty of dithering by waiting to increase U.S. interest rates. I had hoped to be fully into my trades prior to the summer break from trading, but this looks a little optimistic at the moment. However, USD strength will power through the markets and being long the USD is the trade in my opinion.

The GREECE situation will come to a conclusion. Whichever way the GREEK situation is “fixed”, does provoke, in my opinion, a contagion effect that will keep the EUR pressured and so a short EUR/USD is the trade. In fact I see a fully supportive / accommodative ECB for quite sometime to help the EUROZONE economies.

The OIL market, which has been damaged by hedge funds and pure big money speculators, has to run on supply and demand rules very soon otherwise there simply will not be space to store the excess production. This should show a downside move in Oil and then a weakening of the CAD, MXN and NOK currencies.

My FUNDAMENTAL overview, I believe is still in place for a positive trading result. My subscribers to the PREMIUM SERVICE will receive the trades as they are placed. There are thousands of pips available through the many trading options open. To wait and let a few hundred pips go by over the past few weeks does not worry me at all, in fact I look at this delay as superior RISK MANAGEMENT given the chop fest that has been the best way to describe the last three / four weeks of the FX markets.

The crossroads are here and the direction is a no brainer for me for the reasons above.

There are matters that could spring forward that could place a “SPANNER/ WRENCH” in the wheels such as a temporary 3–6 month extension of the current GREECE bailout program but this would also require debt forgiveness, however, I just don't see this. There could be a world geopolitical event, but we are always at risk of these 24x7. Basically, once the FED moves and GREECE is fixed my plan will be 100% in operation. I am hoping to have my plan starting this coming week.

I will however place a few words of caution.

Up until the FED raises rates and the GREECE defaulters are satisfied one way or another we are at the whim of the markets. We will remain range bound. What is the point of exposing yourself to the RISK of trading too early without the FUNDAMENTAL news backup to confirm your trades?

Patience is required. Trades will be missed. Great entries will pass us by but we will be exercising great RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT DISCIPLINES.

Remember, there is a Forex market almost everyday, and, everyday there are trading opportunities.

If we have to stand and wait for a little while at the crossroads waiting - so be it. As long as we do not do a EUROZONE and bury our heads in the sand all will be good moving forward.

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<ol start="3">
	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:
</strong></li>
</ol>
<strong>SUMMARY OF PERFORMANCE:</strong>

3.1: OVERVIEW - SUBSCRIPTION OPTIONS, FEATURES and PRICING:

For new readers who may not be aware, I refer to the PREMIUM SERVICE quite a lot in this blog and for more details about what it is, and, how much it costs, you will need to go the welcome page of <a href="http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>

At the top of my welcome page there are three drop down menus: -
PREMIUM SERVICE PROMOTIONS (if available)
SIGN-UP
DISCLAIMER
Further details and how to join are all contained there. The various pricing options for GOLD and SILVER subscriptions are listed. You will need a PayPal account to subscribe.

<u>PLEASE NOTE:</u>

During the summer from July 25<sup>th</sup> through to September 5<sup>th</sup> 2015, there will not be any WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU blogs and PREMIUM SERVICE trading will be minimal due to slow markets. Subscribers will still be advised of trades, if any, but typically there are very few. Subscription periods DO NOT count the weeks when there is no blog.

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3.2: PERFORMANCE REVIEWS:
<p style="text-align: center;">PREMIUM SERVICE – COST INCOME ANALYSIS (USD):
<strong>EMANATING FROM TRADE SET-UPS - 2015 to date:</strong></p>
<p style="text-align: center;">MICRO LOT TRADER - 411 trades cost to trade = $41.10
<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 411 trades = <strong>$594.70</strong></p>
<p style="text-align: center;">MINI LOT TRADER - 411 trades cost to trade = $411.00
<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 411 trades = <strong>$5,947.00</strong></p>
<p style="text-align: center;">STANDARD LOT TRADER - 411 trades cost to trade = $4,110.00
<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 411 trades = <strong>$59,470.00</strong></p>
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3.3: PREMIUM SERVICE - TRADE SUMMARY DETAILS MONTH &amp; YTD:

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<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/PS-PROFITS1-28062015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-6194" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/PS-PROFITS1-28062015.png" alt="PS PROFITS1 28062015" width="457" height="420" /></a>

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<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/PS-PROFITS2-28062015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-6195" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/PS-PROFITS2-28062015.png" alt="PS PROFITS2 28062015" width="460" height="442" /></a>
<ol start="4">
	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBER EXCLUSIVE CONTENT:</strong></li>
</ol>
(Section 4 is exclusive PREMIUM SERVICE content only available to PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers)

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<ol start="5">
	<li><strong> MY FINAL THOUGHTS:</strong></li>
</ol>
5.1: SUBSCRIBING TO THE “FREE VERSION” OF THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU:

If you like what you have almost completed reading and want to have THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU delivered direct to your email inbox next week, here is what you do: -

Go to my website: - <a href="http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>

On the right hand side of the welcome page under my bio “about me” there is a blue box titled SUBSCRIBE TO FREE NEWSLETTER, click on profile and add your email address. It is as simple and straightforward as that.

I do NOT sell your email data to anyone…do not worry...one less thing to worry about!

If you really like my way of explaining things…subscribe to either the PREMIUM SERVICE SILVER or GOLD by visiting my website <a href="http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>

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5.2: TRADING TIPS &amp; THOUGHTS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD:

Remaining light on trading may only last until Tuesday or Wednesday this week as I am hoping that the GREECE situation will be resolved one way or another. Once we know how its resolved, it sets us up knowing how to trade after the dust settles a little.

This week is a big week for big event news and there are many items of news surrounding my key currency pairs moving forward. I am hoping that I can engineer trades around these news releases to kick-start my trades at good entry levels. It is impossible to predict this but one can only hope.

As always, with high-risk news on the imminent horizon it is now in my mind, even more important to stick to core trading principles.
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>Consistency = longevity in trading and that is a critical goal.
IT IS THE KEY MEASUREMENT</strong></p>
Before you enter a trade work out the risk, price it in $$$. Place your stop accordingly. PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers have a full library of information on RISK MANAGEMENT, RISK TOLERANCES and POSITION SIZING etc. available for reference 24x7.

Take care.

Scott Pickering
The Pip Accumulator
Sunday June 28th 2015

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All the comments and views expressed in my blog are my thoughts and ideas only. They are based on my FUNDAMENTAL views of the markets and my thoughts on the individuals concerned on how they manage positions in the public domain. In addition, I have my own thoughts and views about what I think goes on behind closed doors. You should NOT base any trade ideas on my thoughts and views alone. As I have said on many occasions in my blog, I am a FUNDAMENTAL trader first, then a TECHNICAL trader second using chart analysis to establish what I believe to be excellent trade entry positions. However, you must make up your own mind and trade at your own risk deciding if the entry levels I refer to actually meet with your views and thoughts. This makes complete sense as the risk in trading your account is 100% owned by you.

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FLASH, RADAR and FUNDAMENTAL trade set-ups, “Tweets” and “Trade ideas” that are posted in my blogs or on Twitter are trades and set-ups that interest me. They are provided for training and informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as an offer, solicitation or recommendation of any specific security or investment strategy. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading Forex carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade any such leveraged products you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin, and seek advice from an independent financial adviser if you have any doubts.