Hi everyone,

I am finding this market very difficult at the moment, and when I say at the moment I mean the past few months. Not only have we been through "Chop Fest" conditions as the equities markets influenced FX as they struggled with multi-year tops, that is still the case today, but in addition, the FX market being bored with the "Chop Fest" changed into a "Snooze Fest". We have one or two days when we have had market moving data but no real follow through at all.

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">ECB</span> - Starts their version of easing paving the way for QE? At the same time in true ECB style it tells the market that 1.3800 was the average rate it wanted. Didn't make sense to me then and makes less sense now as there are increased calls to weaken the single currency. It's at 1.3600 and it appears to be clued there despite poor PMi data and today's IFO was weaker. The EUR/USD rallies !! What chance is there of a fall in its value?

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">GBP</span> - Carney at the time of wiring this article is failing to convince the UK Parliamentary committee on Finance that his "I'm a HAWK' speech from the Mansion House a couple of weeks ago was a prudent thing to do given the economic data released between then and now. He is fumbling and totally defensive. Was Carney premature? Personally, I think he moved the markets too far, too fast Well his tone today was much different and his approach to interest rate rises he says is by way of small bite sized chunks and not a "wham bam thank you Mam" approach, I think that we all knew that anyway. A complete change in character in 10 days or so.

The EUR/USD is stuck between 1.3570 and 1.3640.
The GBP/USD is stuck from just below it's recent break out point of 1.6970 and 1.7050.

I really hate writing this but are we waiting for the next NFP?

Overnight, I decided to start closing positions and just bank $$$$.

<strong>FT140 - CAD/CHF long - closed at 0.8340 +6 pips.</strong>

<strong>FT139 - EUR/CAD short - closed at 1.4582 +41 pips.</strong>

<strong>FT137 - NZD/USD short - Closed at 0.8705 +7 pips.</strong>

<strong>RT116 - USD/SEK long - closed at 6.7022 +23 pips.</strong>

I wrote a few weeks in the blog under the TRADER TOPICS section about adjusting to the market conditions and trading within what you have. I think from now until the Fall we have just a "PULLBACK STRATEGY" market at best. So get ready for FLASH TRADES looking for just 20-25 pip moves, with stops moved up to protect. If the run they run, if not we have 20 or 25 pips per trade.

Right now to do this is difficult. to achieve, moves like this are very hard to come by.

My pressure charts are very mixed and there is not much to go on apart from the CAD. Here are the front-line currency pairs when the Short, Medium and Long term charts are all in the same direction.

<span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>LONG:</strong></span> NZD/USD, CAD/JPY, NZD/JPY, USD/SEK, EUR/NOK and EUR/SEK.

<span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>SHORT:</strong></span> USD/CAD, AUD/CAD, EUR/CAD and GBP/CAD.

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I will tweet if anything jumps out at me to trade, but I have a feeling things will be quiet today.

Good luck,

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Scott

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