<strong><span style="font-size: 14pt;">THE DAILY FX POST</span>
<span style="font-size: 14pt;"> from</span>
<span style="font-size: 14pt;"> THE PREMIUM SERVICE</span></strong>

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<strong>DATE: Thursday 2nd October 2014
REF: #99</strong>

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<ol>
	<li><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong> OVERVIEW – INITIAL THOUGHTS:</strong></span></li>
</ol>
I was asleep early last night and missed every opportunity to enter on the USD as it got crushed. Annoying, a lot of volatility but the DXY did not pullback too much and I still think that there is more of a pullback on the cards because if ECB does not deliver that is what is going to happen.

Moving on, the big day for the ECB and Mario Draghi is here.

Today its all about the ECB and will Draghi be kicking a** or kicking cans?

Whilst the EUR has fallen its moves have not been reflected in the inflation data and it is a real concern. The ECB is miles and miles away from its 2% objective.

If Draghi calls for patience (can kicking) the EUR/USD will bounce like crazy in my opinion. Draghi has a tendency to dither because his strings that are controlled by Berlin have him tied up. The markets quite frankly, myself included, are sick of talk, talk, and the yada yada yada approach, as talk is cheap. Action is what is required. If Draghi comes out with the spirit of “Whatever it takes”, he will be sending the EUR/USD to 1.2000.

The Bundesbank are at his back talking about exceeding mandates. All things are not good in Germany just look at the recent manufacturing PMI’s from Germany plus business confidence in Germany is falling and unemployment is rising. So this is NOT all about the periphery.
<p style="text-align: left;"><strong>Draghi has to provide: - </strong></p>
<strong>DETAILS ON THE ABS – size if possible.</strong>
<strong> INFLATION – DEFLATION and what he is specifically going to do.</strong>
<strong> QE – Is it on or not? If it’s on provide the details.</strong>
<strong>TLTRO – Why the low take up?</strong>

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Whilst the EUR is lower, history tells me that Draghi will not take a swat at the currency. But that is a risky approach.

I do NOT want to go long the EUR/USD it is NOT my trade of choice. I want to enter short and my charts below are based upon my desire to go short.

I can of course, go long and run the EUR/USD to my areas that interest me to enter short at these levels and this is my plan B.

You have to be fluid today with your mindset if you are going to trade. Given NFP tomorrow I am favouring the EUR commodity crosses.

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<span style="text-decoration: underline;">EUR/USD:</span>

The 240-minute chart below shows the areas of interest to me to enter short. If there is disappointment I have the areas marked that could provide some resistance (albeit minor) should we get a squeeze higher?

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/EURUSD-240-M-02102014.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-4478" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/EURUSD-240-M-02102014-1024x494.png" alt="EURUSD 240 M 02102014" width="1024" height="494" /></a>

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<span style="text-decoration: underline;">EUR: COMMODITY CROSSES:</span>
Depending upon what Draghi does and how the reaction play out the EUR/NZD is the pair that interests me the most.

If Draghi does not deliver the stock market should come down bringing the commodity crosses into play as in my opinion they should bolt higher.

The EUR/NZD was whacked last night when the NZD/USD squeezed above 0.7920. It is now hovering at 1.6000 there is lot of upside move available. You can see a move way above 1.6500 being on the cards.

The same thought process is in my mind on the EUR/AUD and EUR/CAD and because they are not USD related they can be held tomorrow through NFP.

There are a lot of pips available in these commodity crosses.

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<span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>EUR/GBP:</strong></span>

This pair can be traded either way using the Fibonacci levels as guidelines. I have been looking to enter short on a pullback. If Draghi disappoints this could be a great long trade.

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/EURGBP-DAILY-02102014.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-4479" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/EURGBP-DAILY-02102014-1024x494.png" alt="EURGBP DAILY 02102014" width="1024" height="494" /></a>

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I have other trades in commodities on my RADAR as well today. All trades will come out via twitter.

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<ol start="2">
	<li><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong> KEY NEWS EVENTS TODAY (BASED UPON (NYC) EDT TIME ZONE):</strong></span></li>
</ol>
<span style="font-size: 10pt;"> ECB: - Interest Rate decision and Press Conference.</span>
<strong> </strong>
<ol start="3">
	<li><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong> EXISTING LIVE TRADES:</strong></span></li>
</ol>
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<strong>RADAR TRADES:</strong>

RT143
AUD/NZD
Long
Long at 1.1200
Stop at 1.0800
Limit at 1.1550
Price Now: 1.1152
Current Profit / Loss Position: -48 pips.
(Hedge will be placed at -100 pips if required)

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<strong>FLASH TRADES:</strong>

None LIVE at this time.
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<strong>FUNDAMENTAL TRADES:</strong>

None LIVE at this time.

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<ol start="4">
	<li><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong> LIMIT &amp; STOP ORDERS WITH BROKERS:</strong></span></li>
</ol>
None at this time.

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<strong> </strong>
<ol start="5">
	<li><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong> FINAL THOUGHTS:</strong></span></li>
</ol>
Careful today. A lot can happen very quickly. I am expecting fireworks. It is very difficult to predict today and maybe being on the sidelines is the best approach. You can play either way long or short. I am looking mainly at the commodity currencies today and avoiding the USD until after NFP. These are my thoughts now but I have be flexible.

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Scott Pickering
The Pip Accumulator
<a href="http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>
Twitter: @ThePremService
Email: premiumserice@weeklyfxdrivethru.com

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<strong>DISCLAIMER:</strong>

FLASH, RADAR and FUNDAMENTAL trade set-ups, “Tweets” and “Trade ideas” that are posted in my blogs or on Twitter are trades and set-ups that interest me. They are provided for training and informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as an offer, solicitation or recommendation of any specific security or investment strategy. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading Forex carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade any such leveraged products you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin, and seek advice from an independent financial adviser if you have any doubts.

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