(9644,1,'2017-07-01 04:31:28','2017-07-01 09:31:28','&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIf ever anyone says to you that FX trading is boring and un-eventful just remind them of the shenanigans that went on last week.\r\n\r\nMario Draghi, ECB President and the “sources” my arse saying that the markets mis-judged his comments. What a load of bollocks.\r\n\r\nMark Carney the governor of the BOE doing what he does best “Flip-Flopping and finally, last but not least…\r\n\r\nStephen Poloz governor of the BOC announcing that the BOC are en route to change policy away from supportive to hawkish by possibly looking to raise Canadian interest rates before the end of 2017 (I would say if oil drops through $40.00 that move could be delayed).\r\n\r\nThe three flutes named above have suddenly (coordinated?) turned from GAME KEEPERS to POACHERS vis-a-vis their interest rate policies.\r\n\r\nI will return to this matter later in the blog with the “SOAPBOX”\r\n\r\nGetting back into the groove now, the PREMIUM SERVICE added about 300 pips last week and I am now back in the mode of CORE POSITIONS and stacking up LIMIT ORDERS.\r\n\r\nHaving said that, it is hard trading at the moment; one must remember that it is summer and we have been blessed with a few moves that may be over-played, but nonetheless have provided some great moves. If you are a cautious and conservative trader like me, you are probably kicking yourself over a few hundred pips extra you could have gained had you not exited positions too early.\r\n\r\nRemember; no one should ever feel guilty about banking pips and few $$$. It’s a much better feeling the losing $$$. Like most of you I guess, we still look at the woulda, coulda and shoulda trades. It’s normal… but just move on.\r\n\r\nVery comfortable now in my new surroundings in Nova Scotia. It’s a great spot and much better for me trading in a bright open office with a view rather than the darkened room, with a huge fecking tree blocking out most of the natural light that I had previously in Quebec. These subtle differences do make a difference.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> LAST WEEK – MY TAKE ON SOME KEY EVENTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIt would be very easy to repeat myself three or four times in various sections of the blog this week. It will be a check on the state of my mental health to see if I can avoid this!\r\n\r\nIt was a light week with regards to Economic data but holy fuck the central bank governors and presidents more than made up for that.\r\n\r\nIn no particular order, here is what floated my boat last week.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>OIL and USD/CAD:\r\n\r\nPicture this: - An old man every morning switching on his machines and looking at the screens swearing at himself, “FFS why the feck I am not short this fecking pair” … this was me all week and guess what, I’ll still be doing it next week at this rate.As I mentioned in last week’s LIVE WEBINAR (without getting on my soapbox), I predicted OIL lower to about $42.00 then a small bounce then a test of $40.00. So far it’s playing out.\r\n\r\nI need to get my ass in gear and have a USD/CAD short trade set up in position.\r\n\r\nOIL is a dirty old commodity and OPEC are an out of date collection of countries that lie to each other and the world about production because of pure greed. As the world becomes less and less reliant on middle eastern OIL the effectiveness of what OPEC does or says gets less and less.\r\n\r\nI wish that that I could come down off that fence and say what I really mean.\r\n\r\nPutting my attempt at humour to one side, this is all about pure, basic and very simple Economic SUPPLY AND DEMAND.\r\n\r\nThis highly speculative market has lost its edge of late as many hedge funds who were big participants in the OIL markets are no longer around. The ability to push the price around is still there but the logic (did I actually use that word in association with OIL?) has long gone.\r\n\r\nSo basically, this is a SUPPLY AND DEMAND call and nothing else. I think that this message is hitting home with a bit more bite now.\r\n\r\nBack to the CAD…\r\n\r\nI am looking for mid 1.32’s for an entry short if possible but this looks unlikely if data continues to come in line or beat expectations.  As long as I am in short prior to the next BOC meeting at this stage these are my thoughts.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>DRAGHI and the ECB:\r\n\r\nHoly Mother of God. What a fecking gang of unprofessional idiots. They must have all been acting as the scarecrow from the wizard of Oz. Not a damn brain between the lot of them.“Unnamed sources” basically the ECB, shit themselves because the single currency strengthened, basically it leapt up like a salmon, and then they tell us a day later that we’re the fecking numpties as we misinterpreted Draghi’s speech. Bollocks basically double bollocks.\r\n\r\nThe FX market was on steroids for the day of Draghi’s speech (Tuesday) and the following day calamity reigned for many retail traders still long. As the “unnamed sources” sound-byte hit the wires everything EUR dropped 100-200 pips in an instant. I’d say that hurt a lot of people because the fills would have been poor, especially with the likes of FXCM! Did they do what they usually do in situations like this and just lock out traders?\r\n\r\nOver the rest of Wednesday the single currency reversed back to the previous day levels. Helter-skelter day!</li>\r\n 	<li>THE ECB ECONOMIC FORUM (Sintra, Portugal)\r\n\r\nDraghi was there as host, along with his three amigos, Carney (BOE), Poloz (BOC) and Kuroda (BOJ).This was where “Carney the flip-flopper” came out of his closet to announce that he would be looking to raise after all… what a “plonker”.\r\n\r\nPoloz confirmed what he stated earlier on CNBC about removing accommodation from the BOC and to start looking to raise interest rates.\r\n\r\nKuroda, apart from needing to spend a few $$$ on dental work, announced nada, nothing new. The BOJ now remains the only central bank in true dovish, accommodative mode.\r\n\r\nMore about this topic later.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>JANET YELLEN:\r\n\r\nOn Tuesday I cut out of trades early after Draghi’s first speech ahead of Janet Yellen’s diary date.FFS, it was granny tells a fecking story around the fireside….\r\n\r\nI cut profitable trades to be sensible for “Storytime with Janet”. Never have I been so disappointed. No policies, no outlook, no guessing and no gossip; just stories about Ben and Merv “the swerve”.</li>\r\n 	<li>BREXIT:\r\n\r\nThe negotiations have started in Brussels. Nothing much at all is being leaked. This surprises me, or maybe they are still agreeing on what pens to use on what size of paper?</li>\r\n 	<li>“TRUMP”\r\n\r\nAs diplomatically as possible:This week’s tweet highlight, or rather lowlight…\r\n\r\nOn Thursday, he tweeted about someone from a TV station who was bleeding from a face-lift who was invited to Mar a Lago, but TRUMP would not meet her for an interview because she was bleeding from the surgery…WTF.\r\n\r\nThis is the leader of the “FREE WORLD” the most powerful man in the world.\r\n\r\nMost of the world used to laugh at the antics of the US pre-TRUMP and most Americans could not understand why. With TRUMP in office and tweets like this, God knows what the thoughts are now. Even I find this difficult to comment on.\r\n\r\nApart from the fact that TRUMP behaves like a spoilt child and NOT a 70-year-old adult.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU – LIVE WEBINAR:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nI am canceling the LIVE WEBINARS for the summer and will start up again in the fall/autumn.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ECON-DATA-02072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9617\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ECON-DATA-02072017-953x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"953\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>MY THOUGHTS ON THE ECONOMIC DATA EVENTS THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\nQuite a bit scheduled this week. This makes a change from recent weeks and a few items stand out for me.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>USD: The pick of the week for most traders but NOT me is Friday’s Non-Farm payroll numbers. I think I have had more luck on the lottery lately… at least with the lottery you stand a chance of winning.As usual all your family favourites will be dragged onto CNBC, BLOOMBERG and FOX BUSINESS to talk shite about the numbers no one can predict. Frankly given the fact the US department of statistics only give us approximations because previous numbers are altered up and down, in fact previous, previous numbers are altered… it’s all rather a game to stay away from in my opinion. Paint a wall, take out your significant other, mow the lawn or just pick yer nose it’s better than the madness of NFP day.Prior to NFP we have ADP jobs data, no real help for NFP as last months numbers showed. The FOMC meeting minutes should be interesting to see how hawkish the FED really are. Is it all fur coat and no knickers, we should find out Wednesday.</li>\r\n 	<li>GBP: A plethora of PMi data. Services and Construction should be strong but Manufacturing maybe a bit below. All are expected to be over 50.</li>\r\n 	<li>AUD: The RBA have a rate statement announcement plus we have Retail sales and a Trade balance number to look forward to. I am getting excited just thinking about these news items. I am well hedged the AUD at the moment so I couldn’t give a rats hairy arse what way the numbers go.</li>\r\n 	<li>CAD: Stephen Poloz (BOC Governor), will be looking closely at the Trade balance and Jobs data no doubt with a BOC interest rate decision up very soon.Personally, given the importance of OIL to the CAD economy and commodities in general, I think he will have more than just one eye on WTi.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>USD MAJORS – SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS TO NOTE THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/TCHART-02072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9618\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/TCHART-02072017-1024x827.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"827\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n<strong>EUR/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/EURUSD-D-02072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9633\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/EURUSD-D-02072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>GBP/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/GBPUSD-D-02072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9634\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/GBPUSD-D-02072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>AUD/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/AUDUSD-D-02072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9632\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/AUDUSD-D-02072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>NZD/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/NZDUSD-D-02072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9635\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/NZDUSD-D-02072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CAD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCAD-D-02072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9636\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCAD-D-02072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CHF:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCHF-D-02072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9637\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCHF-D-02072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/JPY:</strong>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDJPY-D-02072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9638\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDJPY-D-02072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><u>WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE?</u></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">The PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber based Forex support service offering not just trade set-ups, but a bunch of different support services that differentiates the PREMIUM SERVICE from other providers, my competitors, that operate in the same space.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Full details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Further information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><u>PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE</u></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">So; if nothing else, I tell it how it is. I am currently about 40% of my target for this time of the year. I had a poor start to the year and I am now following a vacation and house move in recovery mode.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">In 2014, 2015 and 2016 I beat my 10,000 pip per annum objective. There is nothing stopping me doing the same this year as my house move and vacation are both behind me.</p>\r\nI will be trading pretty much full time from now on through to the end of 2017. The opportunity to make pips with me is there and as you will see later in this section and on my webpage, I have a special promotion that was due to expire at the end of June, which I have extended until the open of the markets on July 2nd at 5PM EST, called “DOUBLE IT UP”.\r\n\r\nIf you want to be a part of what I hope will be a storming end to 2017, look at my promotion and website and get subscribed. I mean business from here on in.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">MONTH TO DATE:  +1,203 pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE:      +2,405 pips</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">If you would like to know a little more about THE PREMIUM SERVICE please feel free to watch the following 40-minute video via the link below:</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"http://bit.ly/PremServiceQ217\">http://bit.ly/PremServiceQ217</a></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">PLEASE NOTE: the above video is best viewed using a Google Chrome browser.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><u>DO YOU WANT TO JOIN THE PREMIUM SERVICE?\r\n</u></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">There has never been a better time….</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">This promotion closes Sunday 2nd July at 5PM EST (Extended from June 30th)</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>PREMIUM SERVICE –  SUBSCRIBER PROMOTION:\r\n</strong><strong>“DOUBLE IT UP”</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">This is the biggest and I believe the best subscriber promotion that I have ever offered.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">What is <strong>“DOUBLE IT UP”</strong> all about…</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Basically, from now until 2nd of July at 5PM EST anyone who subscribes to the PREMIUM SERVICE through my “SUBSCRIBE HERE” tab at the top of my welcome page will have their subscription period doubled at no extra cost.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">This virtually means that a 10 week subscription will take you right through to the end of 2017.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Confirmation of the <strong>“DOUBLE IT UP” </strong>will be contained in the “welcome on board documents” the accompanies your subscription confirmation.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">This is the best and most generous promotion that I have ever offered since starting the PREMIUM SERVICE and I hope that many of you take advantage.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Below are the dates of the DRIVE THRU blog for the remainder of this year, 2018 and 2019.</p>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/BLOG-DATES-2017-2019.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9300\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/BLOG-DATES-2017-2019-1024x621.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"621\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION?</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">If you would like to be in the monthly draw to win a “FREE 10-WEEK SUBSCRIPTION” to the PREMIUM SERVICE, valued at CAD$500.00, all you should do is subscribe to receive this FREE NEWSLETTER on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">This can be done as follows: -</p>\r\nOn my welcome page just below my cube logo is where you complete your subscription.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">July’s winner is:\r\ncarlos**********@gmail.com</p>\r\nBy the time this blog is posted Carlos should be up and running with full access.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"7\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:\r\n</strong>(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\nI added 292 pips to the PREMIUM SERVICE total for the year last week, it could have been double that. I was spooked out of the Draghi rally on Tuesday on the basis that I wanted to clear most of the decks prior to Yellen’s moment. FFS; what a complete and utter nonevent that was; it really pist me off, a self-glorification of her tenure so far reminiscing her times with Bernanke and sucking up to my buddy Merv “The Swerve” King, BOE governor pre-the flip-flopper.\r\n\r\nThe PIP year to date total is now at 2,405 pips.\r\n\r\nMy rough target per month is 1,250 pips to achieve my annual objective of 10,000 fresh and tasty pips.\r\n\r\nOther points of the overall performance that I look at are as follows: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Drawdowns are higher than usual but within my revised TRADE PLAN accommodating longer-term POSITION TRADES.</li>\r\n 	<li>Profitable trades versus Loss trades ratios are improving. Monthly for June 77% / 33% and YTD now just under my target at 70% / 30%.</li>\r\n 	<li>Performance status in pips versus last year. I am now at 40% of my objective for this time of year…this is improving and a couple of good months will boost this towards 100%.</li>\r\n 	<li>Day trades are still an issue. I have zero confidence in some of the moves and so my TRADE PLAN guidelines by coincidence do not set off alarms. The alarms that do pop–up, frankly, I wouldn’t touch the trades with a barge pole.</li>\r\n 	<li>I have let many trades go by that maybe I should have entered.The point to note here is that I am despite being behind objective NOT taking trades that <u>I AM NOT</u> 100% committed to.</li>\r\n 	<li>Profit per trade is lower than usual but typical for the time of year. One cannot expect in the slow months the same return. I am not comfortable either reviewing position sizing yet as compensation for this.I will review position sizing in the fall / autumn when the liquidity returns…hopefully.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<u>\r\nTRADING ENVIRONMENT:</u>\r\n\r\nBasically, it\'s a pain in the arse. The summer is here and I think we have to treat last week as an exception. Fresh ranges and tops have been established, especially in the commodity currencies. The possible excitement ahead is possibly with the S&amp;P. It is up against the 127% Fibonacci extension and it looks toppy. However, I have been saying equities should turn lower for what feels like months and all that happens is that they power higher every time. So; I am not the best at calling the moves in the S&amp;P. But I still think the S&amp;P looks toppy.\r\n\r\nFollowing my GBP dilemma from last week’s DRIVE THRU, I have stayed away from the GBP/USD but I have not resisted the temptation with the cable cross rates. There is more to come. I will be filling my boots on cross rates if my thought process plays out moving forward.\r\n\r\nMoving forward, I am getting ready to load up USD long trades again. Once the overreaction to all the possible rate hikes from the other Central Banks (BOE, ECB and BOC) have died down I think that the USD will re-assert itself once again.\r\n\r\nThe pair that cause me a bit of a headache with my plan moving forward is how the USD/JPY will react to USD moves and equity moves that could be heading lower. I bring this up because the BOJ is the only Central Bank still in the camp of dovishness and accommodation with no let up of accommodation even thought about this year or next!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>\r\nCORE TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\nI have started with: -\r\n\r\nGBP/AUD, GBP/NZD, EUR/AUD and EUR/NZD long trades. In addition, I am still looking to add to my AUD/NZD long trades again.\r\n\r\nI currently hold trades with NZD/USD and AUD/USD which are under water. I am looking to add more short trades with these pairs as well.\r\n\r\nOver the couple of weeks I will create a spreadsheet to place in this section detailing goals and objectives.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\nPREMIUM SERVICE - TRADES REVIEW<strong>:</strong></u>\r\n\r\nCURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE - LIVE TRADES:\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/LIVE-TRADES-02072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9619\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/LIVE-TRADES-02072017-890x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"890\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\nCURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE – LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/LIMIT-ORDERS-02072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9620\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/LIMIT-ORDERS-02072017-819x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"819\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"8\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE SOAPBOX:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong> THE GAME KEEPERS ARE NOW POACHERS!</strong>\r\n\r\nLast week will be remembered for several things as far as I am concerned: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Draghi turns hawkish.</li>\r\n 	<li>The ECB tell us he wasn’t hawkish at all.</li>\r\n 	<li>Carney “flip flops” again.</li>\r\n 	<li>Poloz confirms he’s gone hawkish.</li>\r\n 	<li>Janet’s cozy fire side chat (non-event).</li>\r\n 	<li>Kuroda is not at the party with the other CB Governors.</li>\r\n 	<li>Donald Trump’s bizarre tweets (nothing unusual…I suppose).</li>\r\n 	<li>Rampant Commodity currencies.</li>\r\n 	<li>Theresa May surviving the Queens Speech vote.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThey were all interesting in their own right, but I want to focus on those bullet points at the top of the list.\r\n\r\nA couple of weeks ago (June 17th) I wrote in this SOAPBOX section about how I thought we as traders probably had a window of about 4/6 months when Central Bank policy divergence between the FED and the other G7 countries Central Banks would give us some strong directional trading opportunities.\r\n\r\nWith what happened last week, I think we can forget that.\r\n\r\nIn true ECB style, President Draghi announces to the world on Tuesday that the EURO AREA recovery was both strengthening and broadening. He added that the Central Bank can aid this covered by adjusting the parameters of it’s policy instruments. He added that the DEFLATION threat was over and reflationary forces were now at play.\r\n\r\nThis announcement was the catalyst for yields to swiftly move higher and this took the EUR/USD up around 150 pips as the single currency broadly strengthened across all EUR linked pairs. The USD (DXY) Index was crushed to hit lows.\r\n\r\nNow, he still had dovish undertones in his speech, but surely to God the ECB could have predicted the response by the markets.\r\n\r\nThe following day…the Lord giveth and the Lord taketh away, at least for an hour or so anyway. In true ECB style of days gone by, out comes an announcement (as the EUR/USD was poking above 1.1400), from un-named sources that the markets read Draghi’s previous day’s speech all wrong, “He was Dovish not Hawkish”.\r\n\r\nWhat a load of crap that was. As mentioned earlier in the blog, all EUR related pairs dropped between 100 and 250 pips in an instant. My guess is that many traders were stopped out way beyond their stop loss levels as the move lower was swift with little or no stopping points on the way, one can just imagine the slippage some brokers would have transmitted to clients.\r\n\r\nOver the following couple of hours, the markets got a grip re-read what Draghi had said and ignored the “un-named source”. Now let’s get one thing absolutely clear. The ECB shit themselves over EUR appreciation across the board and thought they could walk back Draghi’s speech…. bloody idiots. The “un-named” source was an ECB underling of some sort.\r\n\r\nThe ECB has done this sort of thing (try to walk back press releases etc.) because they could not organize a piss up in a brewery.\r\n\r\nThe same day as the attempted walk back from the ECB, “Flip –Flopper” Carney was at it again. The BOE governor was so dovish a week earlier he dismissed the MPC vote of 5-3 at the BOE over a rate hike in sterling. One week later, he is now saying that rates could be moving upwards before the end of 2017.\r\n\r\nCable rallied across the board, the GBP/USD by about 300 pips in the last few days of last week. It now resides around 1.3000.\r\n\r\nStephen Poloz, governor of the BOC also announced that the BOC was looking to end its accommodative policy regarding the CAD.\r\n\r\nWas all this change of direction coordinated?  Was the fact that Janet Yellen, FED chair, in her cozy chat session later the same day after the Carney and Poloz announcements deliberately held without any mention of FED policies or US economic data references?\r\n\r\nIs the Pope catholic?\r\n\r\nAll of this was stage managed and coordinated down to the minute. The only screw up was the ECB, not for the first time misunderstanding the effect of the statement.\r\n\r\nWithout doubt at some time Central Bank policies would change around the world and from that perspective we should not be surprised, but it was the coordination of the message that was fascinating.\r\n\r\nWhat next?\r\n\r\nThe first aspect about all of this I would like to mention is that from the BOE and ECB perspective nothing will probably change until closer to the end of the year, maybe even into early 2018. At least that’s my takeaway.\r\n\r\nDo we still have divergence with Central Banks?\r\n\r\nYes, but it’s now not as easy to trade because the markets will now be anticipating moves in interest rates and speculation will be at fever pitch from now on.\r\n\r\nWhat I do think is that the USD was crushed… over crushed and the likelihood of a bounce in the DXY is good.\r\n\r\nWithout doubt, every word written or uttered by Draghi, Poloz and Flip-Flopper will be scrutinized beyond belief. The game keepers have now turned poachers for want of a better phrase.\r\n\r\nA couple of years ago, in the archives of the DRIVE THRU, I wrote about Central Bank Governors / Presidents being treated as Rock Stars by the markets. I referred to this again after BREXIT when Carney had a walk of about 50 metres to get to the lectern to deliver his actions to support cable. All he needed on the walk were a few lasers borrowed from Pink Floyd and dry ice as he finally entered the conference room.\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, we are back at this stage again.\r\n\r\nAs long as we don’t get the likes of Steve Liesmann from CNBC throwing his underpants on the stage when Janet Yellen walks in, in a Tom Jones copycat move made by his female fans, we should be alright.\r\n\r\nNow there is a picture to pour out your Sunday morning cornflakes to!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"9\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #139 PREMIUM SERVICE (SUBSCRIBER VERSION)\r\nDATE: 2nd July 2017.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','THE GAME KEEPERS ARE NOW POACHERS!','','inherit','closed','closed','','9641-revision-v1','','','2017-07-01 04:31:28','2017-07-01 09:31:28','',9641,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/9641-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(10033,1,'2017-09-16 06:16:52','2017-09-16 11:16:52','<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSo, last week may have been my 250th WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU but from my registered subscribers list only 80 of them received the blog direct to their inbox. In fact I discovered that since returning from a short summer vacation from blogging, only the first 80 registered subscribers have been receiving the blog.\r\n\r\nThe reason…\r\n\r\nI switched website hosts from BLUEHOST (who could not maintain my https status due to their system errors) to SITEGROUND who despite a verbal run through of my requirements, have subsequently advised me that only 80 emails can be sent and plug-ins will not work inside my WORDPRESS account to send emails in batches. I thought that things were quiet, I put it down to the time of the year NOT my new hosting partners.\r\n\r\nYou will NOT be surprised to hear that I have been told the email distribution issue is all my fault… the rules are written down somewhere on the SITEGROUND website and my verbal conversation counts for feck all.\r\n\r\nAs a result, and which additionally may provide a better solution, albeit a little timelier from my perspective, I am now using my CONSTANT CONTACT account for 100% of my FREE NEWSLETTER administration and distribution.\r\n\r\nSuffice to say, this discovery and finding a solution to the problem, has been a bit of a distraction from a trading perspective.\r\n\r\nTwo weeks ago, I launched revised subscription options and subscriber PROMOTION at the same time. Part of the launch was to open up for a week the full PREMIUM SERVICE version of the blog to my FREE NEWSLETTER subscribers. On the basis that only 80 would have had the opportunity to see the complete version, I have decided to repeat the process with this week’s “DRIVE THRU’ blog.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nOver the past week or so, I have been preparing for and I am now almost ready to launch a replacement video about trading with me through THE PREMIUM SERVICE. I just need to put two or three hours to one side to get it done and edited. I know this sounds totally stupid but getting the time is a killer and I consider myself brilliant at TIME MANAGEMENT.\r\n\r\nIn addition…\r\n\r\nI mentioned just before the summer break that I was working on some algorithms for trading. I am still not sure how I get these into the PREMIUM SERVICE but these are now ready for further refinement. Again, I just need a couple of hours with my partners on this and then will hopefully be a quick “GREEN FOR GO”.\r\n\r\nBack to trading …\r\n\r\nI have had one of those weeks; distraction and the nagging of hindsight!\r\n\r\nLike every trader, you try your best to leave the woulda, coulda and shoulda’s behind. Hindsight is just a wonderful thing. Nevertheless, I think it was Bernard Baruch who said, “Nobody ever lost money taking a profit”; so with those words fresh in my mind, I will shut up.\r\n\r\nThe pips are starting to accumulate as I head towards my annual net 10,000 pips target. My house move, a month’s vacation to Australia and New Zealand plus my summer break are all in the rear-view mirror now. If you are considering joining the PREMIUM SERVICE no better time than the present.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>I am on my charge to reaching 10,000 pips before the year end. There are risks attached but I beat my 10,000 pips target in 2014, 2015 and 2016, no reason why I can’t do it again to make 4 years in a row (Check it all out on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the tab HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE).</li>\r\n 	<li>I have a great new subscriber promotion to the PREMIUM SERVICE offer available (Full details in Section 4 of this blog and on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the FX PROMOTIONS tab).</li>\r\n 	<li>My buddies at VANTAGE FX are ready for you if you don\'t have a great broker or you want to add a separate broker for PREMIUM SERVICE trades (Just click the link to VANTAGE FX on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> ).</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nFinally, in this section and I should initially mention it here…\r\n\r\nYou will see from the title of this week’s blog; I have had as far as many of you are probably concerned “A Hallelujah Moment”. I will go into my reasons for my 360-degree turnabout in “THE SOAPBOX” later in the blog in section 5.\r\n\r\nFor those regular followers; I think I had a “nose-bleed” moment when I decided I was going long the cable. It still does not feel quite right having been bearish for 15 months.\r\n\r\nOn the Thursday evening after the BOE Super Thursday, I wrote to PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers telling them that I was now going to change sides and because we are entering the weekend and the fact that North Korea had just launched another missile test, I would look for long GBP trades over the weekend’s charts and start posting trades early this week.\r\n\r\nWTF, as quoted by one of my long-time subscribers “Yer man Gertjan Vlieghe a BOE MPC member somehow read your tweet and decided this was enough to send the cable higher without you”. Very funny. Cable soared through 1.3600 over 220 pips range on the day without the US session. I was asleep through the plough higher from the 1.3400 break out level.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> LAST WEEK – MY TAKE ON SOME KEY EVENTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIn no particular order, here is what floated my boat last week.\r\n\r\n<u>GBP: UK AVERAGE EARNINGS INDEX &amp; “SUPER THURSDAY”. </u>\r\n\r\nI will be going through these headlines later in Section 5 - “THE SOAPBOX” section of the blog.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>USD: INFLATION DATA.</u>\r\n\r\nPPi – dreadful and the USD rallied.\r\n\r\nCore CPI and CPi - Core CPi came in line with expectations and regular CPi was a beat. The USD rallied, sold off, rallied, sold off, rallied and basically it chopped its way throughout Thursday. It was probably not helped by a possible North Korean missile launch news wire.\r\n\r\nCore Retail Sales and Retail Sales – Poor data. Retail Sales was -0.2% against a positive 0.1% and Core Retail Sales 0.2% against 0.5% expectations.\r\n\r\nZero inflation is evident in the Us markets. Demand through Retail Sales has taken a nosedive. It all looks a difficult time for Janet Yellen this week. What has the FED policy done vis-à-vis getting the US economy back on track?\r\n\r\nHere’s a thought…\r\n\r\nAt the FED Press Conference this week. Announce that the poor recent data was due to the weather and that it’s simply transitory as the underlying data supports the current FED policy!\r\n\r\nMy thoughts are US data is much the same as always. If we see good data all I read is FED TO RAISE RATES IN DECEMBER or if we see poor data FED NOT GOING TO RAISE. This is all I see now. I think I have grown so accustomed to this bollocks I do not really read it anymore and I skim the document.\r\n\r\nI think that as traders, we should just react to whatever Janet Yellen says. Everything else is just noise from people who know about as much about what is on the minds of the FOMC as Ozzy my boy Labrador about the FED’S intentions.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>3.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/ECON-DATA-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10007\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/ECON-DATA-17092017-1024x761.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"761\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3.2: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10008\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-17092017-1024x852.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"852\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3.3: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:</u>\r\n\r\nThe FOMC is the standout this week. However, there are couple of other bits and pieces that have caught my eye.\r\n\r\nHere are my picks of the upcoming week.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD:</u></strong>  Janet Yellen is back on the stage again. Everything about this Press Conference and Rate Statement is only going to be about two subjects: -\r\n\r\nFirstly, when is the FED going to raise rates again. Before the end of 2017 or spill it over into 2018?\r\n\r\nSecondly, will she provide updates about the FED reducing the size of its balance sheet. By how much and when will they start.\r\n\r\nFrankly, I do not think that the rest matters. She will drone on giving us waffle for a good 15-20 minutes, but at the end of the day, in my opinion its only about the above two points. You will see and hear media account executives asking the same questions 50 different ways to let their managers know that they turned up and weren’t “bunking off”, but at the end of the day it could be all over in a “Wham Bam Thank You Mam” 10 minutes maximum and everyone could be down to the pub after 20 minutes writing their pieces.\r\n\r\nThe drama unfolds at 2PM EST and the Press Conference at 2:30PM EST on Wednesday.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP</u>: </strong>On the back off the HAWKISH BOE last week we have Retail Sales this Tuesday. I can see it now on twitter. BOE to definitely hike in November as Retail Sales beat, or, BOE rate hike this year in question as UK Retails sales miss.\r\n\r\nFor Carney to do a complete u turn is not unheard of.\r\n\r\nIf ever you go to lunch with him, beware if you only have one hour for allocated, as he is so indecisive about his choices, you may end up eating nothing or eating alone. Allegedly, Carney cannot make up his mind what to eat and when he does he keeps changing his mind.\r\n\r\nIt is so bad that in local restaurants, close to the Threadneedle Street area of London that are known to accommodate BOE employees they have alternative Mark Carney menus. They include a clause “Mr. Carney, once you have decided upon your choice of food from our menu you cannot change your mind. Regretfully forward guidance is believed and 100% adopted by our chefs. The direction you have chosen is final”\r\n\r\nDo not be surprised if Carney has you brain in a fecking twist up to the end of this year. He is the master of changing one’s mind. If it were an Olympic sport he would win the GOLD MEDAL.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>CAD</u></strong>: I am a buyer of CAD$ and I am adding to positions, taking profits here and there as the markets chop back and forth. This week we have CPI and Core Retail Sales, this inflation data will be key for the BOC vis-a-vis another interest rate hike before the end of 2017.\r\n\r\nThe economic data from Canada recently has been really good just the odd bit of mixed data, like the Employment numbers when the mix between Full and Part Time jobs was skewed.\r\n\r\nIf this week’s data does NOT rule out another BOC rate hike, I will be adding more positions to my CORE CAD position.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>NZD</u></strong>:  It is the New Zealand 2017 General Election this Friday. I am generally bearish the Kiwi; however, I believe it would be sound to wind back trades ahead of the result. I have already started this with PREMIUM SERVICE trades and I will continue this process through the week.\r\n\r\nI would imagine the start of trading next weekend will be the time for volatility on a grand scale if we are going to see big moves.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong><strong> </strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>4.1: PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber based Forex support service offering my suggested trade set-ups and market commentary.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nMONTH TO DATE:  +406 net pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE:      +7,062 net pips\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs on my website  <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n<u>4.2: CURRENT SUBSCRIPTION PROMOTION:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/FALL2017-PROMOTION.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9908\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/FALL2017-PROMOTION-788x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"788\" height=\"1024\" /></a><u>\r\n</u><u>\r\n4.3: WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nIf you would like to be in the monthly draw to win a “FREE 30 DAY SUBSCRIPTION” to the PREMIUM SERVICE, valued at CAD$150.00, all you should do is subscribe to receive this FREE NEWSLETTER on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nThis can be done as follows: -\r\n\r\nOn my welcome page just below my cube logo is where you complete your subscription.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>4.4: PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:</u><u>\r\n</u>(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.1: TRADING REVIEW, INSIGHTS and SUMMARY:</u>\r\n\r\nWhat a week last week was.\r\n\r\nI was distracted on several occasions with having to be away to take care of my Jeep’s service but more importantly issues with my new webhost regarding bulk email delivery. The only effective workaround is not to use my WordPress connection through my website but to use my database via constant contact.\r\n\r\nFrom a trading perspective, I have changed views with the cable. I have gone into some detail in “THE SOAPBOX”.\r\n\r\nI tweeted last week after the BOE Super Thursday that I would look for GBP trades into this week, as we were into Friday trading session but especially with the missile launches out of North Korea it made sense to wait. I did not, and frankly no-one could have predicted the comments from Gertjan Vlieghe BOE MPC member. He basically sent his own missile under the GBP. His comments are in a different tone from Carney and we should not get too carried away but that detail would not stop the market reaction. It has been an absolute stellar move across the board.\r\n\r\nI added a good total of net +406 pips in the past seven days which is great but it was a difficult choppy week. Ranges are tightening again (GBP pairs excepted). This is what happens when we are about to have a market SHIFT.\r\n\r\nMarket correlations are just not sitting properly. One day they are trusted the next morning when I check charts the previous alignment has drifted apart. The geopolitical tensions have a great deal to do with this as this directly affects safe havens such as GOLD, plus the JPY and CHF currencies. I must mention though after the missile launch last Thursday, my reaction was complete caution, the market was to shrug it off within a couple of hours. Something is going to give with this and it will be ugly when it happens.\r\n\r\nThe geopolitical events when added to the changes taking place with Central Bank policy throughout the world is also fueling the uncertainties, correlation issues and non-alignments across markets. Central bank uncertainties on future policy timing (FED and ECB), the dovish approach in general changing into a hawkish policy approach (BOC and BOE) and uncertainties in delay by trying to maintain a neutral policy stance over a more hawkish stance (RBA and RBNZ).\r\n\r\nAdd all these factors together and its quite a mixing bowl of ingredients. I am just not convinced on everything FX at the moment, I am fearing the worse. I know that I am slow and steady at this but so much complacency to me is just mental.\r\n\r\nBack to trading…\r\n\r\nLooking forward with trades, I will continue to press forward building a CORE CAD POSITION. Obviously short term NZD/CAD due to election will be restricted, CAD/CHF and CAD/JPY I will watch more closely than before vis-a-via flight to safety. In addition, given the situation with cable I think that GBP/CAD could be tougher unless we see a USD/CAD fall into the 1.1800’s.\r\n\r\nThe CORE NZD position will have to take back seat until the election is over. Friday last week my AUD/NZD took a beating, but as you know for the last 2 years I have been basically long this pair, it is have given some great returns and I will stick with it. My total position size a sizeable broker account is only 40% of a full-sized position. I could ride this pair substantially lower beyond its monthly ATR on STOP LOSS levels, if required, and still not exceed my risk parameters.\r\n\r\nI need to see the election outcome and reaction before committing more trades. My plan this week it to exit NZD related trades ahead of the vote.\r\n\r\nWith regards to the single currency, I am looking to build a CORE LONG POSITION with the EUR. As you know I have started with EUR/USD, to which I will add more set ups and I need to look at the cross rates this week and add. I have a EUR/CAD short that I entered on a SELL STOP below previous good support. It has given me a nasty rebound spike higher. I extended the STOP to stick with this pair as will follow USD/CAD moves. Annoyingly at the moment the USD/CAD is consolidation before resuming its move lower with the trend. Bounces have been minimal so far.\r\n\r\nI have made many references to cable. I will be posting several pullback entries from the get go this week.\r\n\r\nThere will be quite a bit of LIMIT ORDER activity in the early part of the week.\r\n\r\nWe have the FOMC this week as you are aware, it is the draw of the news events. As you have seen, I have adjusted my entry tactics more of late to using momentum as a means of trade entry by using BUY STOPS and SELL STOP orders. These are NOT my preferred means of entering trades but they are working more times than not. I will continue with these for the time being, they should be of use around the FOMC.\r\n\r\nWhilst I am very positive on my trading to obtain results at the moment I do have market concerns as you know and I have raised them again in the blog. I will try tot to get SPOOKED but we ready for mass exits of trades should the ARMAGEDDON situation arise.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.4.2: MARKET SENTIMENT:\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/SENTIMENT-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10009\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/SENTIMENT-17092017-688x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"688\" height=\"1024\" /></a></u><u></u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.3: USD: MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS with TRADING CHARTS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10008\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-17092017-1024x852.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"852\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n\r\nPlease note that now that these charts are PREMIUM SERVICE subscriber only, I am now able to have them focused to existing trades and limit orders as well as future intentions.\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>EUR/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/EURUSD-D-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10019\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/EURUSD-D-17092017-1024x511.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"511\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/GBPUSD-W-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10020\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/GBPUSD-W-17092017-1024x511.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"511\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/AUDUSD-D-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10018\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/AUDUSD-D-17092017-1024x511.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"511\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/NZDUSD-D-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10021\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/NZDUSD-D-17092017-1024x511.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"511\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCAD-D-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10022\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCAD-D-17092017-1024x511.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"511\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCHF-D-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10023\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCHF-D-17092017-1024x511.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"511\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDJPY-D-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10024\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDJPY-D-17092017-1024x511.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"511\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.4.4: EXISTING &amp; POTENTIAL CORE TRADES:\r\n\r\nBasically, I am bearish the CAD and NZD and the two currencies are dominating my thoughts, trades and limit orders at the moment.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE CAD:</u></strong>\r\nCurrently, I am live the following: -\r\n\r\nCAD/CHF – long\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD and EUR/CAD – short\r\n\r\nPlus: - I have SELL STOP limit orders and standard limit orders in position for the USD/CAD.\r\n\r\nI am adding on pullbacks and getting prepared. I see the BOC raising once more this year as they take aim at the housing bubble and personal lending increase’s.\r\n\r\nI am still targeting much lower levels sub 1.2000 with the USD/CAD. This level if broken should drag all CAD pairs stronger.\r\n\r\nA Couple of weeks ago, ScotiaBank released its latest batch of currency targets and thoughts vis-à-vis the markets. It has another rate hike in the mix for Q4 2017 and two more in 2018. If they were all 0.25% rate increases, that would make a grand total rate of 1.75% by the end of 2018.\r\n\r\nIt is a brave call, but I can see it as well given the fundamentals.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: Is to add more USD/CAD trades this coming week and to continue to build a CORE SHORT POSITION that enables me to add to and take pips and $$$ from trades as the CAD strengthens.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE NZD</u></strong>:\r\n\r\nCurrently I have 4 x live long AUD/NZD trades and a NZD/CHF short trade.\r\n\r\nPlus: - One more long AUD/NZD limit order trade, a NZD/JPY short limit order and a EUR/NZD long limit order trades waiting in the wings.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: I am going to reduce NZD exposure this week given the fact that the New Zealand General Election takes place on Friday. I will then look at the market sentiment next week to review my future plan.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE EUR</u></strong>:\r\n\r\nEUR/USD: I have placed multiple LIMIT ORDERS based initially on my thoughts that we would see a larger pullback with the single currency from its break above 1.2000. this materialized only as far as 1.1840.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: I am going to look at adding more LIMIT ORDER set ups over the coming days. I still believe that the EUR/USD is going back towards 1.3000. The rhetoric out of the ECB has been calming, but it is questionable that the market is believing anything that comes out of Frankfurt at the moment.\r\n\r\nI will also look at some EUR crosses once again.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE GBP:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nNothing is in position yet. I believe that there will be some excellent pullback opportunities to enter GBP related trades across the board and I will be looking for these opportunities this week. The only pairs that I am uncertain about are GBP/CAD and GBP/CHF. However, all other crosses should have great potential.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE SOAPBOX:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>\r\nCARNEY COMES OUT OF THE CLOSET\r\n</strong><strong>(BOE NOW HAWKISH)</strong></p>\r\nOn BOE “Super Thursday” last week interest rates remained on hold but the HAWKISH tone of the Monetary Policy Statement sent the cable on a tear.  Later in the day Mark Carney (BOE Governor) was on the wires fueling the statement content further by openly stating that the next move higher in cable would be upwards and sooner than expected.\r\n\r\nHaving moved about 150 pips on the statement release, Carney’s added comments only placed about another 40 pips on top. It was the comments the following morning (Friday) by BOE MPC member Gertjan Vlieghe, who came out and stated that the increase would be soon and more than a one and done which Carney had intimated the prior day. These comments sent the GBP/USD above 1.3600.\r\n\r\nFrom 1.3150 to 1.3600 (450 pips) in basically 24 hours was what you call a substantial shift in sentiment and a stellar move.\r\n\r\nThe comments from Carney, that he has finally let go of the dovish sentiment and admitted a hike was required after months of denial has brought him out of the closet and the dove has now turned hawk.\r\n\r\nBy coincidence upon receipt of the comments from the BOE, but with no closet involved, I have also changed my GBP bias. I am no longer bearish cable in the short / medium term. I am bullish primarily because with cable above the 1.3450 - 1.3500 levels we are now in a bullish trend. The market is now focused on BOE interest rates rather than the political gaffs surrounding BREXIT.\r\n\r\nNow look…\r\n\r\nI still have massive BREXIT reservations and concerns. Theresa May’s government’s handling of the BREXIT negotiations appears poor and not planned. The Tories have a paper-thin majority in the House of Commons.\r\n\r\nHowever, even with this backdrop it looks like that even without a single BREXIT agreement reached and mass confusion reigning over the negotiations, UK households are going to have more cash pressures placed upon them.\r\n\r\nPersonally, I think that this rate increase should it happen is a recipe for disaster. Never trust accountants in deciding these matters. I have said it before, these pen pushing, desk sucking, jotter blotters do not get out much, they live, breathe and survive on historic data and do NOT take into consideration facts in the reality of the present day.\r\n\r\nYou can bet your bottom dollar that any rate increase will be 100% passed on the mortgages and credit card debt. Households that are currently feeling the effects of inflation are about to get a kick in the nuts as living costs are about to move higher. Look out for defaults on loans, mortgages etc. on the increase in the coming months and for “Vlieghe” to intimate multiple interest rate hikes was reckless as it could start something more than just defaults.\r\n\r\nI know some of you will think that the mere fact that the GBP/USD exchange rate is increasing that this is deflationary, and, I agree, but it is a year away at least to feel the deflationary effect. The debt default issues are bubbling under right now beneath the surface prior to adding more pressure through interest rate increases.\r\n\r\nIn addition, do not forget trade will be effected by rate increases. The balancing act is a difficult one to maintain but I am astonished that the pen pushers have gotten their way. Given all the uncertainties on the economy and with BREXIT I would have ran with higher inflation in Q2 2018.\r\n\r\nThere are still a couple of “not sures” emanating from the BOE statement and comments that followed.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Slow rate increases like the FED?</li>\r\n 	<li>Tapering through Balance Sheet reduction of the QE program when will this commence?</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThere is a BOE inflation report due in November, this looks like the date for the first rate hike. So, we do not have detail but the markets have basically already started to price in a 0.25% rate increase.\r\n\r\nWhilst I can see the move by the BOE and the sentiment change, I can also see the other side. This is a risky decision if they go ahead.\r\n\r\nStarting Monday I will be hunting down GBP long trades based off pullbacks through Fibonacci retracements. All GBP pairs are overbought, EUR/GBP oversold, but there will be some great trading opportunities in the near term to take advantage of.\r\n\r\nThe BOC obtained almost $0.13 cents on their move higher, if cable were to match this, it would be close to 1.4450.  Whilst I cannot see that given the money flows I can see a challenge of 1.3870 the 61.8% retracement from the pre BREXIT June 2016 highs (1.5034) to the December 2106 lows (1.1994).\r\n\r\nWhat happens now if we have a catastrophic BREXIT announcement or a leadership battle in the Tory party or another election is called in the next couple of months?\r\n\r\nInteresting times ahead.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS:</strong><strong> </strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #251 FREE NEWSLETTER\r\nSeptember 17th, 2017\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','CARNEY COMES OUT OF THE CLOSET','','publish','open','closed','','carney-comes-closet','','','2017-09-16 06:16:52','2017-09-16 11:16:52','',0,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?p=10033',0,'post','',0),(9912,1,'2017-08-31 11:08:31','2017-08-31 16:08:31','<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/SUBSCRIPTION-CHANGES-FALL2017.png\"></a><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/RISK-POSITION-SIZING-01092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9909\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/RISK-POSITION-SIZING-01092017-964x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"964\" height=\"1024\" /></a><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/SUBSCRIPTION-CHANGES-FALL2017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9907\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/SUBSCRIPTION-CHANGES-FALL2017-799x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"799\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/PS-PROFITS-TO-31072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9856\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/PS-PROFITS-TO-31072017-960x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"960\" height=\"1024\" /></a><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/TRADING-SCHEDULE-HOLIDAYS-2017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9413\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/TRADING-SCHEDULE-HOLIDAYS-2017-1024x946.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"946\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/BLOG-DATES-2017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9285\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/BLOG-DATES-2017-641x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"641\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/NOTICEBOARD-28012017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9026\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/NOTICEBOARD-28012017-1024x940.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"940\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-8874\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/CB-INTEREST-RATES-2017-810x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"810\" height=\"1024\" />\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/POSITION-SIZING-01-2017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-8834\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/POSITION-SIZING-01-2017-1024x649.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"649\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','NEWSBOARD','','inherit','closed','closed','','8921-revision-v1','','','2017-08-31 11:08:31','2017-08-31 16:08:31','',8921,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/8921-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(9928,1,'2017-08-31 13:38:35','2017-08-31 18:38:35','','PS CONS PERF 31082017','','inherit','open','closed','','ps-cons-perf-31082017','','','2017-08-31 14:29:43','2017-08-31 19:29:43','',5002,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/PS-CONS-PERF-31082017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(9929,1,'2017-08-31 13:38:45','2017-08-31 18:38:45','','PIP COMPARISON 2016-2017 31082017','','inherit','open','closed','','pip-comparison-2016-2017-31082017','','','2017-08-31 14:30:30','2017-08-31 19:30:30','',6869,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/PIP-COMPARISON-2016-2017-31082017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(9663,1,'2017-07-01 08:38:00','2017-07-01 13:38:00','&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIf ever anyone says to you that FX trading is boring and un-eventful just remind them of the shenanigans that went on last week.\r\n\r\nMario Draghi, ECB President and the “sources” my arse saying that the markets mis-judged his comments. What a load of bollocks.\r\n\r\nMark Carney the governor of the BOE doing what he does best “Flip-Flopping and finally, last but not least…\r\n\r\nStephen Poloz governor of the BOC announcing that the BOC are en route to change policy away from supportive to hawkish by possibly looking to raise Canadian interest rates before the end of 2017 (I would say if oil drops through $40.00 that move could be delayed).\r\n\r\nThe three flutes named above have suddenly (coordinated?) turned from GAME KEEPERS to POACHERS vis-a-vis their interest rate policies.\r\n\r\nI will return to this matter later in the blog with the “SOAPBOX”\r\n\r\nGetting back into the groove now, the PREMIUM SERVICE added about 300 pips last week and I am now back in the mode of CORE POSITIONS and stacking up LIMIT ORDERS.\r\n\r\nHaving said that, it is hard trading at the moment; one must remember that it is summer and we have been blessed with a few moves that may be over-played, but nonetheless have provided some great moves. If you are a cautious and conservative trader like me, you are probably kicking yourself over a few hundred pips extra you could have gained had you not exited positions too early.\r\n\r\nRemember; no one should ever feel guilty about banking pips and few $$$. It’s a much better feeling the losing $$$. Like most of you I guess, we still look at the woulda, coulda and shoulda trades. It’s a normal reaction … but just move on.\r\n\r\nVery comfortable now in my new surroundings in Nova Scotia. It’s a great spot and much better for me trading in a bright open office with a view rather than the darkened room, with a huge fecking tree blocking out most of the natural light that I had previously in Quebec. These subtle differences do make a difference.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> LAST WEEK – MY TAKE ON SOME KEY EVENTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIt would be very easy to repeat myself three or four times in various sections of the blog this week. It will be a check on the state of my mental health to see if I can avoid this!\r\n\r\nIt was a light week with regards to Economic data but holy fuck the central bank governors and presidents more than made up for that.\r\n\r\nIn no particular order, here is what floated my boat last week.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>OIL and USD/CAD:\r\n\r\n\r\nPicture this: - An old man every morning switching on his machines and looking at the screens swearing at himself, “FFS why the feck I am not short this fecking pair” … this was me all week and guess what, I’ll still be doing it next week at this rate.\r\n\r\nAs I mentioned in last week’s LIVE WEBINAR (without getting on my soapbox), I predicted OIL lower to about $42.00 then a small bounce then a test of $40.00. So far it’s playing out.\r\n\r\nI need to get my ass in gear and have a USD/CAD short trade set up in position.\r\n\r\nOIL is a dirty old commodity and OPEC are an out of date collection of countries that lie to each other and the world about production because of pure greed. As the world becomes less and less reliant on middle eastern OIL the effectiveness of what OPEC does or says gets less and less\r\n\r\nI wish that that I could come down off that fence and say what I really mean.\r\n\r\nPutting my attempt at humour to one side, this is all about pure, basic and very simple Economic SUPPLY AND DEMAND.\r\n\r\nThis highly speculative market has lost its edge of late as many hedge funds who were big participants in the OIL markets are no longer around. The ability to push the price around is still there but the logic (did I actually use that word in association with OIL?) has long gone.\r\n\r\nSo basically, this is a SUPPLY AND DEMAND call and nothing else. I think that this message is hitting home with a bit more bite now.\r\n\r\nBack to the CAD…\r\n\r\nI am looking for mid 1.32’s for an entry short if possible but this looks unlikely if data continues to come in line or beat expectations.  As long as I am in short prior to the next BOC meeting at this stage these are my thoughts.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>DRAGHI and the ECB:\r\n\r\nHoly Mother of God. What a fecking gang of unprofessional idiots. They must have all been acting as the scarecrow from the wizard of Oz. Not a damn brain between the lot of them.\r\n\r\n“Unnamed sources” basically the ECB, shit themselves because the single currency strengthened, basically it leapt up like a salmon, and then they tell us a day later that we’re the fecking numpties as we misinterpreted Draghi’s speech. Bollocks basically double bollocks.\r\n\r\nThe FX market was on steroids for the day of Draghi’s speech (Tuesday) and the following day calamity reigned for many retail traders still long. As the “unnamed sources” sound-byte hit the wires everything EUR dropped 100-200 pips in an instant. I’d say that hurt a lot of people because the fills would have been poor, especially with the likes of FXCM! Did they do what they usually do in situations like this and just lock out traders?\r\n\r\nOver the rest of Wednesday the single currency reversed back to the previous day levels. Helter-skelter day!</li>\r\n 	<li>THE ECB ECONOMIC FORUM (Sintra, Portugal)\r\n\r\nDraghi was there as host, along with his three amigos, Carney (BOE), Poloz (BOC) and Kuroda (BOJ).\r\n\r\nThis was where “Carney the flip-flopper” came out of his closet to announce that he would be looking to raise after all… what a “plonker”.\r\n\r\nPoloz confirmed what he stated earlier on CNBC about removing accommodation from the BOC and to start looking to raise interest rates.\r\n\r\nKuroda, apart from needing to spend a few $$$ on dental work, announced nada, nothing new. The BOJ now remains the only central bank in true dovish, accommodative mode.\r\n\r\nMore about this topic later.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>JANET YELLEN:\r\n\r\nOn Tuesday I cut out of trades early after Draghi’s first speech ahead of Janet Yellen’s diary date.\r\n\r\nFFS, it was granny tells a fecking story around the fireside….\r\n\r\nI cut profitable trades to be sensible for “Storytime with Janet”. Never have I been so disappointed. No policies, no outlook, no guessing and no gossip; just stories about Ben and Merv “the swerve”.</li>\r\n 	<li>BREXIT:\r\n\r\nThe negotiations have started in Brussels. Nothing much at all is being leaked. This surprises me, or maybe they are still agreeing on what pens to use on what size of paper?</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU – LIVE WEBINAR:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nI am canceling the LIVE WEBINARS for the summer and will start up again in the fall/autumn.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ECON-DATA-02072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9617\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ECON-DATA-02072017-953x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"953\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>MY THOUGHTS ON THE ECONOMIC DATA EVENTS THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\nQuite a bit scheduled this week. This makes a change from recent weeks and a few items stand out for me.\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>USD: The pick of the week for most traders but NOT me is Friday’s Non-Farm payroll numbers. I think I have had more luck on the lottery lately… at least with the lottery you stand a chance of winning.\r\n\r\nAs usual all your family favourites will be dragged onto CNBC, BLOOMBERG and FOX BUSINESS to talk shite about the numbers no one can predict. Frankly given the fact the US department of statistics only give us approximations because previous numbers are altered up and down, in fact previous, previous numbers are altered… it’s all rather a game to stay away from in my opinion. Paint a wall, take out your significant other, mow the lawn or just pick yer nose it’s better than the madness of NFP day.\r\n\r\nPrior to NFP we have ADP jobs data, no real help for NFP as last months numbers showed. The FOMC meeting minutes should be interesting to see how hawkish the FED really are. Is it all fur coat and no knickers, we should find out Wednesday.</li>\r\n 	<li>GBP: A plethora of PMi data. Services and Construction should be strong but Manufacturing maybe a bit below. All are expected to be over 50.</li>\r\n 	<li>AUD: The RBA have a rate statement announcement plus we have Retail sales and a Trade balance number to look forward to. I am getting excited just thinking about these news items. I am well hedged the AUD at the moment so I couldn’t give a rats hairy arse what way the numbers go.</li>\r\n 	<li>CAD: Stephen Poloz (BOC Governor), will be looking closely at the Trade balance and Jobs data no doubt with a BOC interest rate decision up very soon.\r\n\r\nPersonally, given the importance of OIL to the CAD economy and commodities in general, I think he will have more than just one eye on WTi.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>USD MAJORS – SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS TO NOTE THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/TCHART-02072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9618\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/TCHART-02072017-1024x827.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"827\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n<strong>EUR/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/EURUSD-D-02072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9633\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/EURUSD-D-02072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>GBP/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/GBPUSD-D-02072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9634\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/GBPUSD-D-02072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>AUD/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/AUDUSD-D-02072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9632\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/AUDUSD-D-02072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>NZD/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/NZDUSD-D-02072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9635\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/NZDUSD-D-02072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CAD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCAD-D-02072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9636\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCAD-D-02072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CHF:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCHF-D-02072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9637\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCHF-D-02072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/JPY:</strong>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDJPY-D-02072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9638\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDJPY-D-02072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n\r\n</strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><u>WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE?</u></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">The PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber based Forex support service offering not just trade set-ups, but a bunch of different support services that differentiates the PREMIUM SERVICE from other providers, my competitors, that operate in the same space.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Full details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Further information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><u>\r\nPREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">So; if nothing else, I tell it how it is. I am currently about 40% of my target for this time of the year. I had a poor start to the year and I am now following a vacation and house move in recovery mode.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">In 2014, 2015 and 2016 I beat my 10,000 pip per annum objective. There is nothing stopping me doing the same this year as my house move and vacation are both behind me.\r\n\r\nI will be trading pretty much full time from now on through to the end of 2017. The opportunity to make pips with me is there and as you will see later in this section and on my webpage, I have a special promotion that was due to expire at the end of June, which I have extended until the open of the markets on July 2nd at 5PM EST, called “DOUBLE IT UP”.\r\n\r\nIf you want to be a part of what I hope will be a storming end to 2017, look at my promotion and website and get subscribed. I mean business from here on in.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">MONTH TO DATE:  +1,203 pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE:      +2,405 pips</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">If you would like to know a little more about THE PREMIUM SERVICE please feel free to watch the following 40-minute video via the link below:</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"http://bit.ly/PremServiceQ217\">http://bit.ly/PremServiceQ217</a></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">PLEASE NOTE: the above video is best viewed using a Google Chrome browser.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><u>DO YOU WANT TO JOIN THE PREMIUM SERVICE?\r\n\r\n</u></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">There has never been a better time….</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">This promotion closes Sunday 2nd July at 5PM EST (Extended from June 30th)</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>PREMIUM SERVICE –  SUBSCRIBER PROMOTION:\r\n</strong><strong>“DOUBLE IT UP”</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">This is the biggest and I believe the best subscriber promotion that I have ever offered.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">What is <strong>“DOUBLE IT UP”</strong> all about…</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Basically, from now until 2nd of July at 5PM EST anyone who subscribes to the PREMIUM SERVICE through my “SUBSCRIBE HERE” tab at the top of my welcome page will have their subscription period doubled at no extra cost.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Confirmation of the <strong>“DOUBLE IT UP” </strong>will be contained in the “welcome on board documents” the accompanies your subscription confirmation.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">This is the best and most generous promotion that I have ever offered since starting the PREMIUM SERVICE and I hope that many of you take advantage.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Below are the dates of the DRIVE THRU blog for the remainder of this year, 2018 and 2019.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/BLOG-DATES-2017-2019.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9300\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/BLOG-DATES-2017-2019-1024x621.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"621\" /></a></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"></p>\r\n\r\n<ol style=\"text-align: center;\" start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><strong>\r\nWANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION?</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">If you would like to be in the monthly draw to win a “FREE 10-WEEK SUBSCRIPTION” to the PREMIUM SERVICE, valued at CAD$500.00, all you should do is subscribe to receive this FREE NEWSLETTER on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">This can be done as follows: -\r\n\r\nOn my welcome page just below my cube logo is where you complete your subscription.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">July’s winner is:\r\ncarlos**********@gmail.com\r\n\r\nBy the time this blog is posted Carlos should be up and running with full access.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong> </strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong> </strong></p>\r\n\r\n<ol start=\"7\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:\r\n</strong>(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"8\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE SOAPBOX:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong> THE GAME KEEPERS ARE NOW POACHERS!</strong>\r\n\r\nLast week will be remembered for several things as far as I am concerned: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Draghi turns hawkish.</li>\r\n 	<li>The ECB tell us he wasn’t hawkish at all.</li>\r\n 	<li>Carney “flip flops” again.</li>\r\n 	<li>Poloz confirms he’s gone hawkish.</li>\r\n 	<li>Janet’s cozy fire side chat (non-event).</li>\r\n 	<li>Kuroda is not at the party with the other CB Governors.</li>\r\n 	<li>Donald Trump’s bizarre tweets (nothing unusual…I suppose).</li>\r\n 	<li>Rampant Commodity currencies.</li>\r\n 	<li>Theresa May surviving the Queens Speech vote.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThey were all interesting in their own right, but I want to focus on those bullet points at the top of the list.\r\n\r\nA couple of weeks ago (June 17th) I wrote in this SOAPBOX section about how I thought we as traders probably had a window of about 4/6 months when Central Bank policy divergence between the FED and the other G7 countries Central Banks would give us some strong directional trading opportunities.\r\n\r\nWith what happened last week, I think we can forget that.\r\n\r\nIn true ECB style, President Draghi announces to the world on Tuesday that the EURO AREA recovery was both strengthening and broadening. He added that the Central Bank can aid this covered by adjusting the parameters of it’s policy instruments. He added that the DEFLATION threat was over and reflationary forces were now at play.\r\n\r\nThis announcement was the catalyst for yields to swiftly move higher and this took the EUR/USD up around 150 pips as the single currency broadly strengthened across all EUR linked pairs. The USD (DXY) Index was crushed to hit lows.\r\n\r\nNow, he still had dovish undertones in his speech, but surely to God the ECB could have predicted the response by the markets.\r\n\r\nThe following day…the Lord giveth and the Lord taketh away, at least for an hour or so anyway. In true ECB style of days gone by, out comes an announcement (as the EUR/USD was poking above 1.1400), from un-named sources that the markets read Draghi’s previous day’s speech all wrong, “He was Dovish not Hawkish”.\r\n\r\nWhat a load of crap that was. As mentioned earlier in the blog, all EUR related pairs dropped between 100 and 250 pips in an instant. My guess is that many traders were stopped out way beyond their stop loss levels as the move lower was swift with little or no stopping points on the way, one can just imagine the slippage some brokers would have transmitted to clients.\r\n\r\nOver the following couple of hours, the markets got a grip re-read what Draghi had said and ignored the “un-named source”. Now let’s get one thing absolutely clear. The ECB shit themselves over EUR appreciation across the board and thought they could walk back Draghi’s speech…. bloody idiots. The “un-named” source was an ECB underling of some sort.\r\n\r\nThe ECB has done this sort of thing (try to walk back press releases etc.) because they could not organize a piss up in a brewery.\r\n\r\nThe same day as the attempted walk back from the ECB, “Flip –Flopper” Carney was at it again. The BOE governor was so dovish a week earlier he dismissed the MPC vote of 5-3 at the BOE over a rate hike in sterling. One week later, he is now saying that rates could be moving upwards before the end of 2017.\r\n\r\nCable rallied across the board, the GBP/USD by about 300 pips in the last few days of last week. It now resides around 1.3000.\r\n\r\nStephen Poloz, governor of the BOC also announced that the BOC was looking to end its accommodative policy regarding the CAD.\r\n\r\nWas all this change of direction coordinated?  Was the fact that Janet Yellen, FED chair, in her cozy chat session later the same day after the Carney and Poloz announcements deliberately held without any mention of FED policies or US economic data references?\r\n\r\nIs the Pope catholic?\r\n\r\nAll of this was stage managed and coordinated down to the minute. The only screw up was the ECB, not for the first time misunderstanding the effect of the statement.\r\n\r\nWithout doubt at some time Central Bank policies would change around the world and from that perspective we should not be surprised, but it was the coordination of the message that was fascinating.\r\n\r\nWhat next?\r\n\r\nThe first aspect about all of this I would like to mention is that from the BOE and ECB perspective nothing will probably change until closer to the end of the year, maybe even into early 2018. At least that’s my takeaway.\r\n\r\nDo we still have divergence with Central Banks?\r\n\r\nYes, but it’s now not as easy to trade because the markets will now be anticipating moves in interest rates and speculation will be at fever pitch from now on.\r\n\r\nWhat I do think is that the USD was crushed… over crushed and the likelihood of a bounce in the DXY is good.\r\n\r\nWithout doubt, every word written or uttered by Draghi, Poloz and Flip-Flopper will be scrutinized beyond belief. The game keepers have now turned poachers for want of a better phrase.\r\n\r\nA couple of years ago, in the archives of the DRIVE THRU, I wrote about Central Bank Governors / Presidents being treated as Rock Stars by the markets. I referred to this again after BREXIT when Carney had a walk of about 50 metres to get to the lectern to deliver his actions to support cable. All he needed on the walk were a few lasers borrowed from Pink Floyd and dry ice as he finally entered the conference room.\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, we are back at this stage again.\r\n\r\nAs long as we don’t get the likes of Steve Liesmann from CNBC throwing his underpants on the stage when Janet Yellen walks in, in a Tom Jones copycat move made by his female fans, we should be alright.\r\n\r\nNow there is a picture to pour out your Sunday morning cornflakes to!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"9\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\nBLOG VERSION: #243 FREE NEWSLETTER VERSION\r\nDATE: 1st July 2017.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','THE GAME KEEPERS ARE NOW POACHERS!','','inherit','closed','closed','','9662-revision-v1','','','2017-07-01 08:38:00','2017-07-01 13:38:00','',9662,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/9662-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(9666,1,'2017-07-07 16:14:48','2017-07-07 21:14:48','','TCHART 09072017','','inherit','open','closed','','tchart-09072017','','','2017-07-08 11:00:05','2017-07-08 16:00:05','',9681,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/TCHART-09072017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(9674,1,'2017-07-07 16:17:00','2017-07-07 21:17:00','','AUDUSD D 09072017','','inherit','open','closed','','audusd-d-09072017','','','2017-07-08 11:00:46','2017-07-08 16:00:46','',9681,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/AUDUSD-D-09072017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(9675,1,'2017-07-07 16:17:05','2017-07-07 21:17:05','','EURUSD D 09072017','','inherit','open','closed','','eurusd-d-09072017','','','2017-07-08 11:00:23','2017-07-08 16:00:23','',9681,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/EURUSD-D-09072017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(9676,1,'2017-07-07 16:17:10','2017-07-07 21:17:10','','GBPUSD D 09072017','','inherit','open','closed','','gbpusd-d-09072017','','','2017-07-08 11:00:35','2017-07-08 16:00:35','',9681,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/GBPUSD-D-09072017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(9677,1,'2017-07-07 16:17:14','2017-07-07 21:17:14','','NZDUSD D 09072017','','inherit','open','closed','','nzdusd-d-09072017','','','2017-07-08 11:00:58','2017-07-08 16:00:58','',9681,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/NZDUSD-D-09072017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(9678,1,'2017-07-07 16:17:18','2017-07-07 21:17:18','','USDCAD D 09072017','','inherit','open','closed','','usdcad-d-09072017','','','2017-07-08 11:01:32','2017-07-08 16:01:32','',9681,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCAD-D-09072017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(9679,1,'2017-07-07 16:17:23','2017-07-07 21:17:23','','USDCHF D 09072017','','inherit','open','closed','','usdchf-d-09072017','','','2017-07-08 11:01:42','2017-07-08 16:01:42','',9681,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCHF-D-09072017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(9680,1,'2017-07-07 16:17:27','2017-07-07 21:17:27','','USDJPY D 09072017','','inherit','open','closed','','usdjpy-d-09072017','','','2017-07-08 11:01:58','2017-07-08 16:01:58','',9681,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDJPY-D-09072017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(9681,1,'2017-07-08 11:28:10','2017-07-08 16:28:10','&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nAfter the week before last week with its non-stop fun (my ex. work buddies would now be on the floor pissing themselves laughing at that opening remark), we had a rather more sedated look to the markets the week just gone. It was a holiday week in both Canada and the US, with the Independence Day holiday in many cases being extended by an extra day’s holiday being taken to make it a very long weekend for some traders. Thus, it was really a three-day week for near normal, bear in mind that it is also the summer, market participation.\r\n\r\nFrom my own trading perspective with a vacation and house move well in the rear-view mirror over 600 pips were added to the PREMIUM SERVICE total for 2017 in the three days on closed trades.\r\n\r\nI will always tell it how it is. Trying to focus on trading when in the middle of a house move and then setting up in a house plus a vacation around the same time, is practically impossible and I count myself as well disciplined.\r\n\r\nI am now settled into my new environment and the fruits of this are starting to come through in my set up and trades undertaken. I have never doubted my abilities to generate $$$ and pips and I am now fully engaged in playing catch up to meet my 10,000-pip objective for 2017. It is a tall order given the start to 2017, but I am 100% focused on the requirements ahead.\r\n\r\nAs I wrote to PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers last week, I trade for the long haul and I will NOT take on trades just for the sake of trades. Whilst I have an ambitious target to meet, I will not sacrifice my TRADING DISCIPLINES outlined in my TRADE PLAN. These I hold dear as they provide longevity in trading which is paramount to trading success in my opinion.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> LAST WEEK – MY TAKE ON SOME KEY EVENTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nDespite a shortened week from my perspective there were still a few takeaways of note.\r\n\r\nIn no particular order, here is what floated my boat last week.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>AUD (RBA):Philip Lowe delivered a very interesting statement, which to some extent caught some of the market off guard.From the prior week’s “Rock Star” adulation that followed Draghi, Poloz and Carney after they all turned hawkish, I think many pundits expected the same from Philip Lowe.\r\n\r\nThe RBA remained neutral and the AUD weakened across the board. The takeaways that stood out for me were: -\r\n\r\nPolicy is consistent with: -\r\n\r\nGrowth and inflation targets\r\nIndicators of Labour Demand remain mixed.\r\nEmployment Growth has been stronger over recent months.\r\nSigns that the housing market is starting to cool.\r\nHousing Debt has outpaced the slow growth in incomes.\r\nA rising AUD$ would complicate the economic adjustment.\r\n\r\nBasically, it was a do not “Rock the Boat” approach.\r\n\r\nAustralian exports are not going to argue with the approach as the appreciating AUD$ is a pain.</li>\r\n 	<li>GBP (PMi, Industrial and Manufacturing Output data plus Mark Carney):All three PMi figures were misses on consensus expectations (Manufacturing (54.3), Construction (54.8) and Services (53.4)).Now, I am not shouting from the rooftops saying that the UK economy is about to fall off a cliff, but I am so damn close to doing so. It was a crap week for UK economic data.\r\n\r\nThe PMI data was all well above the “50 level” but maybe now just over a year after the referendum vote was taken, the concerns are starting to creep in.\r\n\r\nThe Industrial (0.1% versus 0.4% expected) and Manufacturing (0.2% versus 0.5% expected) data released on Friday last week were just poor. Whilst they are by no means top tier data releases the simple fact is so much UK data is poor it should have an impact. (It’s had an impact on my thoughts!).\r\n\r\nAfter the BREXIT vote in June 2016 the UK economy looked positive in fact quite resilient but 2017 is the opposite. The BREXIT uncertainty has come through in most aspects of the economy.\r\n\r\nI realise that the recent MPC vote was 5-3 and not 7-1 as expected. Carney was dovish in his Mansion House breakfast speech and then a week later in Sintra, Portugal he was hawkish vis-à-vis the BOE need to look at interest rates rising soon…. really.\r\n\r\nWhen is soon?  For me it’s anything from a week or so to a few months. For my boy Labrador, Ozzy, soon equals now, in fact in his language it means yesterday!\r\n\r\nI just don’t get Carney. His forward guidance pre-BREXIT was shite to put it mildly and frankly he just digs huge holes for himself to fall into. He will probably flip-flop again against the backdrop of this week’s data\r\n\r\nI am looking at pressure on wages, household spending, retail sales, consumer confidence and housing in the UK as well as last week’s data and I am NOT getting a warm fuzzy feeling at all. Carney’s flip-flopping made feck all sense to me. It looked like a childish “TRUMPLIKE” action because at the ECB Economic Forum both Draghi (ECB) and Poloz (BOC) were both very hawkish about the future.\r\n\r\nI just cannot see the BOE raising rates this year and probably not well into 2018. There are just too many BREXIT uncertainties combined with poor economic data. Never mind Haldane’s economists view on inflation.\r\n\r\nI think that it is quite simple. There is just too much to risk with BREXIT.\r\n\r\nWas it David Bloom (Global Head FX Strategy) HSBC who predicted cable back at 1.2000 and EUR/GBP at parity a few weeks ago?\r\n\r\nHmmn… good calls maybe!</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>USD (FOMC Meeting Minutes, PMi data, ADP and NFP):Indecision… indecision.Personally in my opinion it’s obvious that the FED cannot agree on peripheral policy moving forward.\r\n\r\nBalance sheet tapering is the new buzz phrase now.\r\n\r\nFrankly, I believe the FED are going to continue moving forward relentlessly in their normalization policy to ensure that they have tools in the box to use as we head into another global worldwide recession. With this move in play who gives a f**k about Balance Sheet tapering.\r\n\r\nThe TRUMP administration has been bogged down by a dysfunctional party line divided Washington D.C. not helped by the fact that TRUMP himself continues to score own goals with his twitter feed in the name of keeping his core support informed.\r\n\r\nThe “ART OF THE DEAL” has been beaten by career politicians who couldn’t give a shit. The draining of the swamp was not as straightforward as he thought and he has been largely ineffective. The Washington machine has won but at what cost?\r\n\r\nPMi data was good last week with consensus levels being beaten with both Manufacturing (57.8) and Non-Manufacturing (57.4) data. This shows life in the economy. However, Autos, Housing, Retail Sales and Confidence drives the “Ultimate Consumer society” and these are very mixed to say the least.\r\n\r\nADP employment was a miss 158k versus 185k expected.\r\n\r\nNFP data was 222k versus 179k expected, once again the ADP and NFP numbers show no consistency and leading up to NFP U.S. data was NOT supportive of a beat! It was the average Hourly Rate that caused concern for the markets as the data was released. It remained at a constant 0.2%, the markets were expecting growth to 0.3%.\r\n\r\nThe market reaction was in my own opinion very minimal to the data. Without doubt the “hourlies” stunted the market reaction.\r\n\r\nI find it very hard with U.S. labour statistics as they are always being revised. They should buy a computer like mine and get a guy in from “O and M” to sort out a reporting system that works properly the first time. It is just a bloody nonsense that these numbers are never accurate. Here’s an idea… report the data in week two of the month rather than week one!! Try to give yourselves some credibility.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>BREXIT:The negotiations have started in Brussels. Nothing much at all is being leaked. This surprises me, or maybe they are still agreeing on what pens to use on what size of paper?</li>\r\n 	<li>BOJ (Kuroda and Central Bank comments on Bond Purchases):Bucking the trend of other high profile Central Bank governors, the BOJ re-asserted its commitment at all costs to continue with its BOND purchasing program. The BOJ remains DOVISH.</li>\r\n 	<li>OIL:The helter-skelter price action continues. First bearish, then bullish and into the close of last week reversing the bullish move to move bearish once again.All this with a backdrop of conflict, mis-trust and tension in the middle east.\r\nSaudi Arabia – Qatar, Saudi Arabia – Iran, Saudi Arabia – Yemen and Egypt – Libya.\r\n\r\nEven myself; the most bearish OIL person on the planet, because of simple supply and demand economic theory, would concede that maybe a spike higher given the tension could be argued in favour of price action towards $55-$60 a barrel.\r\n\r\nWhat a strange world we live in.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU – LIVE WEBINAR:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThere is a summer break with my LIVE WEBINARS they will return in the fall / autumn.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ECON-DATA-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9665\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ECON-DATA-09072017-1024x998.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"998\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>MY THOUGHTS ON THE ECONOMIC DATA EVENTS THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>BOC: This is the pick of the week for me based upon the recent hawkish sentiment change from Stephen Poloz (Governor BOC).The big question is of course, is he ready to sanction a rate increase this week?Analysts believe so, and a 0.25% increase to 0.75% has been predicted.\r\n\r\nCan you imagine what would happen to the CAD pairs should he not raise rates? Since his deputy announced a couple of weeks ago that the dovish approach could be ending, the USD/CAD has fallen from 1.3600 to sub 1.3000.\r\n\r\nIf the rate hike happens, is there more left to fall? Dead right there is; I think that 1.2760 is an obvious target.\r\n\r\nHowever, should he not hike now, what would happen?\r\n\r\nIn my opinion I think we could see a fast retrace to around 1.3250, but this could be tempered by the accompanying commentary and again with the press conference 75 minutes later.\r\n\r\nI think that the ramifications of not raising rates would be incredible and although I am not positioned short USD/CAD etc. at the moment, I hope to have positions in profit with stop losses at break-even just in case… you just never know.\r\n\r\nMany Central Bank governors appear to suffer from “premature verbage”. It is quite a targeted disease.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li>JANET YELLEN – Semi-annual Monetary Policy Report:I hate writing this but we are back on a “will she / won’t she” raise rates again this year news cycle.Just a word of caution her prepared speech is released to the markets 90 minutes prior to her taking her seat to deliver it and then ask questions.</li>\r\n 	<li>USD (Producer and Consumer prices / Retail Sales):Thursday’s and Friday’s data will be interesting to follow.These will be crucial to the markets re the hike or no further hike scenarios, however I feel the FED is raising regardless one more time this year, probably in December.\r\n\r\nTime will tell.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>USD MAJORS – SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS TO NOTE THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/TCHART-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9666\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/TCHART-09072017-1024x855.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"855\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n<strong>EUR/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/EURUSD-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9675\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/EURUSD-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>GBP/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/GBPUSD-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9676\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/GBPUSD-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>AUD/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/AUDUSD-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9674\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/AUDUSD-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>NZD/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/NZDUSD-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9677\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/NZDUSD-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CAD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCAD-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9678\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCAD-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CHF:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCHF-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9679\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCHF-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/JPY:</strong>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDJPY-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9680\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDJPY-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE?</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber based Forex support service offering not just trade set-ups, but a bunch of different support services that differentiates the PREMIUM SERVICE from other providers, my competitors, that operate in the same space.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\nSo; if nothing else, I tell it how it is. I am currently about 50% of my target for this time of the year. I had a poor start to the year and I am now following a vacation and house move in recovery mode.\r\n\r\nIn 2014, 2015 and 2016 I beat my 10,000 pip per annum objective. There is nothing stopping me doing the same this year as my house move and vacation are both behind me. I will be trading pretty much full time from now on through to the end of 2017.\r\n\r\nIf you want to be a part of what I hope will be a storming end to 2017, login at my website and get subscribed. I mean business from here on in.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nMONTH TO DATE:  +675 pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE:      +3,080 pips\r\nIf you would like to know a little more about THE PREMIUM SERVICE please feel free to watch the following 40-minute video via the link below:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://bit.ly/PremServiceQ217\">http://bit.ly/PremServiceQ217</a>\r\n\r\nPLEASE NOTE: the above video is best viewed using a Google Chrome browser.\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><strong>WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION?</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIf you would like to be in the monthly draw to win a “FREE 10-WEEK SUBSCRIPTION” to the PREMIUM SERVICE, valued at CAD$500.00, all you should do is subscribe to receive this FREE NEWSLETTER on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nThis can be done as follows: -\r\n\r\nOn my welcome page just below my cube logo is where you complete your subscription.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"7\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:\r\n</strong>(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\nWe added 675 pips to the PREMIUM SERVICE annual total last week, plus counting the week before almost 1,000 pips in two weeks. I am happy with this.\r\n\r\nLast week, being FOMC Minutes and U.S. jobs data week, I closed out of many positions early to bank $$$ as you just never know what reaction to the news the markets will give you plus NFP for me is most of the time a bit of a lottery and from a conservative trading point of view it’s better to bank pips and $$$ rather than gamble positions away.\r\nThus, I will now be adding back positions over the next few days on pullbacks. I see many pairs such as EUR pairs a buy on dips scenario (EUR/CAD excepted) and I do want to sell into strength with the AUD/USD and NZD/USD once again.\r\n\r\nAs usual the issue with these trades is being patient, waiting for prices to come to come to you. This is the art of trading for the long haul not to get caught up in the emotion of moves that you are not participating in.\r\n\r\nIn addition, I am looking at the emerging market pairs once again; USD/MXN, USD/TRY and USD/ZAR. In my eyes these represent good value from a risk/reward perspective.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>TRADE ENVIRONMENT:</u>\r\n\r\nI think that Janet Yellen’s testimony this week, will set the tone moving forward.\r\n\r\nIf she turns dovish again or in any way looks hesitant to keep raising rates the USD will get hammered. She holds the short / medium term keys to momentum over the summer in my opinion.\r\n\r\nAs you know, my views are that the FED will raise rates in line with “the dots” and regardless of economic data which they will pass off as “transitory” as their goal appears to be normalization as soon as possible.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\nCORE TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\nI need to start again after last week’s closeouts.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nPREMIUM SERVICE - TRADES REVIEW<strong>:</strong>\r\n\r\nCURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE - LIVE TRADES:\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/IVE-TRADES-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9667\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/IVE-TRADES-09072017-963x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"963\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\nCURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE – LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/LIMIT-ORDERS-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9668\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/LIMIT-ORDERS-09072017-818x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"818\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"8\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE SOAPBOX:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>\r\nARE WE APPROACHING THE TIPPING POINT?</strong>\r\n\r\nSince returning from vacation in New Zealand and Australia, my SOAPBOX titles have been: -\r\n\r\nARE THE GAME KEEPERS NOW POACHERS?\r\nGBP – IS IT A LONG OR SHORT TRADE?\r\nIS THE CENTRAL BANK DIVERGENCE TRADE FINALLY IN PLAY?\r\n\r\nAll three items have generated a lot of likes and a few comments as usual, most nice but a few not so nice.\r\n\r\nNow; either I have lost the plot, which could be the case, or economically things are really motoring along and policies are changing so fast that unease is being created in the marketplace?\r\n\r\nAlmost as soon as I wrote about “The Divergence trade” Draghi, Poloz and Carney all came out HAWKISH.\r\n\r\nI analyzed the cable and its cross-rates and within a week or so we have Carney “flip-flop”.\r\n\r\nFinally, the Central banks except BOC, walked back hawkish comments in the aftermath of the reaction to the change in sentiment. This shows to me the dilemma the central banks are in on the basis that they want to alert the markets of potential policy changes in the pipeline, but do not want the currency fluctuations that go with any announcement, which I can understand.\r\n\r\nNow I am not raising the issue that as soon as I write in the DRIVE THRU the market sentiment reverses because I have raised an issue. I am writing stating that as a FUNDAMENTAL trader the fundamentals that I am working with are now changing, and that, I believe we are approaching the TIPPING POINT for sentiment / momentum / central bank policy and reactions to economic data shifting. These items alone won’t bring us over the edge but in conjunction with a major geopolitical event… dare I even say it BLACK SWAN event.\r\n\r\nJust based on recent factors we have noticed attitudes and reactions are changing. In the past, we would have seen big moves on geopolitical events now the markets are largely muted. This is complacency in my opinion. Trying to place my thoughts logically for this section was a bit challenging, I hope you can follow without too many re-reads.\r\n\r\nLet me elaborate a bit, bear with me: -\r\n\r\nThere are many examples of this primarily with the BOE through the “flip flopper” and the ECB through Mario Draghi and his hangers on (Wiedmann and Nowotny) over a potential taper tantrum and interest rate policy in the medium–term amongst other issues.\r\n\r\nHowever, I prefer to use Janet Yellen and the FED/FOMC as my example, otherwise I will have pages and pages of stuff.\r\n\r\nGo back in time to Ben Bernanke, then add on Yellen’s tenure up to the TRUMP presidential victory in 2016. I think that it would be safe to say that the FED telegraphed every move to the markets… absolutely no surprises. Every piece of data was analyzed and reviewed over and over vis-à-vis context and the impact on the market was scrutinized left, right and centre.\r\n\r\nWith Janet Yellen this policy of total transparency continued up to the FED press conference in December 2016.\r\n\r\nBased upon the backdrop of a Pseudo republican victory via “THE DONALD” it all changed.\r\n\r\nThe markets got bulled up about tax cuts, infrastructure spending, less controls on medical costs as it was a policy to repeal Obamacare (The Affordable Care Act). Regulation on Wall Street would be reduced and monies owned by multi-national US companies lodged outside of the US would be repatriated back under a tax incentive scheme. Companies would be encouraged through lower taxation to retain a U.S. presence instead of moving outside of the U.S. because of high local taxes and cheaper labour costs elsewhere.\r\n\r\nI think that I am correct in saying 6 months in and “THE DONALD” has achieved zero on that list.\r\n\r\nHowever, was the FED also bulled up and wanting to get ahead of the curve that it had been so many times criticized of being behind on?\r\n\r\nWithout doubt this year with a backdrop of very mixed, sometimes poor U.S. economic data the FED has marched on with rate increases regardless.\r\n\r\nIt is out of character for Janet Yellen, who frankly sounds DOVISH even when she is delivering HAWKISH sentiment.\r\n\r\nHas this complete change of policy by the FED lit a fire under other central banks?\r\n\r\nI think that The FED’s outright disregard for data dependency of late has created a sea change. However, notably, the BOJ under Kuroda has signaled that the support to the market through bond purchasing will continue. The backdrop to this very recent BOJ announcement was that Kuroda has no fresh ideas and should be replaced. The RBA under relatively new governor, Philip Lowe left policy neutral last week when many were calling for a more hawkish tone.\r\n\r\nIs it now a case of, the FED is changing policy regardless of data so we should all change?\r\n\r\nI would have thought most central banks could get away with a lag in timing hence my piece about CENTRAL BANK DIVERGENCE four weeks ago. After all the divergence for as long as possible should help home exporters and dis-advantage the U.S. exporters at the same time. A little bit of that can’t be bad… I would have thought.\r\n\r\nLooking at the macro level it looks like a sea change is in effect and we are about to change fundamentally.\r\n\r\nWhilst I talk in the present… the now; do not forget we are still dealing with culture and a central bank’s monetary policies are slow to turn around, we are in 2017 there will be communications and a gentle feed into any changes. The wham-bam-thank-you-mam approach of especially Mario Draghi will be re-thought and a more leisurely delivery in bite sized chunks will be adopted, I am certain of this.\r\n\r\nSo; how does it translate into forex trading?\r\n\r\nFX is noted as being a future pricing instrument. As we know, the markets react, then re-think and correct if required.\r\n\r\nThe FED with its present approach in normal circumstances from my perspective tell you that the USD will strengthen and challenge 100.00 once again with US $ index (DXY). In fact, the USD cannot get out of its own way… why?\r\n\r\nThe single currency was hit so hard but is so resilient it never hit parity, never mind sub parity as some banks were calling. Economically the EUROZONE was so poor (it still is in some countries) it was beaten up so bad, it has the greatest opportunity given the TRUMP administration ineffectiveness to bounce back. In 2017, the markets decided that at some stage the ECB will turn hawkish so the single currency has been generally supported at the expense of the DXY moving back to 100.00 once again.\r\n\r\nThe result of all this putting the shenanigans to one side is wide trading ranges. If you look across most currency pairs especially with the USD majors we are in trading ranges: -\r\n\r\nEUR/USD: 1.1200 – 1.1450\r\nGBP/USD: 1.2600 – 1.3050\r\nAUD/USD: 0.7300 – 0.7750\r\nNZD/USD: 0.6820 - 0.7350\r\nUSD/CHF: 0.9550 – 1.0150\r\nUSD/JPY: 108.00 – 114.50\r\n\r\nThese ranges can be described as large ranges but you can also mark off mini-ranges within these levels that contain the price action. I know, we are in the summer doldrums of trading and ranges within ranges are commonplace. I agree with this but there’s more going on in the peripheral and reactions to potential disturbing geopolitical events are muted to say the least.\r\n\r\nTherefore, what I see is that the TIPPING POINT will be a bit of a domino event triggered by a geopolitical event, the bigger than normal central bank policy decision, or, a governmental policy decision that shakes the market so much that even these broad trading ranges noted above are broken with the result being a major shift in policy both for governments and central banks. This creates a market panic.\r\n\r\nSo let me drill this thought down a little more. Triggers starting this domino effect could be such as the following: -\r\n\r\nNORTH KOREA nuclear flexing.\r\nMIDDLE EASTERN tensions over spilling into OIL supplies grinding to a halt.\r\nA NEW WORLD ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN leading to recession.\r\n\r\nI am sure you can think of a few more items for the list, but I hope you get my point. There is so much uncertainty and lack of clarity dotted about, I believe we are prime for a big move.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"9\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #140 PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS VERSION\r\nDATE: 9th July 2017','ARE WE APPROACHING THE TIPPING POINT?','','publish','open','closed','','approaching-tipping-point','','','2017-07-08 11:28:10','2017-07-08 16:28:10','',0,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?post_type=member_posts&#038;p=9681',0,'member_posts','',0),(9683,1,'2017-07-08 11:06:33','2017-07-08 16:06:33','&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nAfter the week before last week with its non-stop fun (my ex. work buddies would now be on the floor pissing themselves laughing at that opening remark), we had a rather more sedated look to the markets the week just gone. It was a holiday week in both Canada and the US, with the Independence Day holiday in many cases being extended by an extra day’s holiday being taken to make it a very long weekend for some traders. Thus, it was really a three-day week for near normal, bear in mind that it is also the summer, market participation.\r\n\r\nFrom my own trading perspective with a vacation and house move well in the rear-view mirror over 600 pips were added to the PREMIUM SERVICE total for 2017 in the three days on closed trades.\r\n\r\nI will always tell it how it is. Trying to focus on trading when in the middle of a house move and then setting up in a house plus a vacation around the same time, is practically impossible and I count myself as well disciplined.\r\n\r\nI am now settled into my new environment and the fruits of this are starting to come through in my set up and trades undertaken. I have never doubted my abilities to generate $$$ and pips and I am now fully engaged in playing catch up to meet my 10,000-pip objective for 2017. It is a tall order given the start to 2017, but I am 100% focused on the requirements ahead.\r\n\r\nAs I wrote to PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers last week, I trade for the long haul and I will NOT take on trades just for the sake of trades. Whilst I have an ambitious target to meet, I will not sacrifice my TRADING DISCIPLINES outlined in my TRADE PLAN. These I hold dear as they provide longevity in trading which is paramount to trading success in my opinion.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> LAST WEEK – MY TAKE ON SOME KEY EVENTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nDespite a shortened week from my perspective there were still a few takeaways of note.\r\n\r\nIn no particular order, here is what floated my boat last week.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>AUD (RBA):Philip Lowe delivered a very interesting statement, which to some extent caught some of the market off guard.\r\n\r\nFrom the prior week’s “Rock Star” adulation that followed Draghi, Poloz and Carney after they all turned hawkish, I think many pundits expected the same from Philip Lowe.\r\n\r\nThe RBA remained neutral and the AUD weakened across the board. The takeaways that stood out for me were: -\r\n\r\nPolicy is consistent with: -\r\n\r\nGrowth and inflation targets\r\nIndicators of Labour Demand remain mixed.\r\nEmployment Growth has been stronger over recent months.\r\nSigns that the housing market is starting to cool.\r\nHousing Debt has outpaced the slow growth in incomes.\r\nA rising AUD$ would complicate the economic adjustment.\r\n\r\nBasically, it was a do not “Rock the Boat” approach.\r\n\r\nAustralian exports are not going to argue with the approach as the appreciating AUD$ is a pain.</li>\r\n 	<li>GBP (PMi, Industrial and Manufacturing Output data plus Mark Carney):All three PMi figures were misses on consensus expectations (Manufacturing (54.3), Construction (54.8) and Services (53.4)).\r\n\r\nNow, I am not shouting from the rooftops saying that the UK economy is about to fall off a cliff, but I am so damn close to doing so. It was a crap week for UK economic data.\r\n\r\nThe PMI data was all well above the “50 level” but maybe now just over a year after the referendum vote was taken, the concerns are starting to creep in.\r\n\r\nThe Industrial (0.1% versus 0.4% expected) and Manufacturing (0.2% versus 0.5% expected) data released on Friday last week were just poor. Whilst they are by no means top tier data releases the simple fact is so much UK data is poor it should have an impact. (It’s had an impact on my thoughts!).\r\n\r\nAfter the BREXIT vote in June 2016 the UK economy looked positive in fact quite resilient but 2017 is the opposite. The BREXIT uncertainty has come through in most aspects of the economy.\r\n\r\nI realise that the recent MPC vote was 5-3 and not 7-1 as expected. Carney was dovish in his Mansion House breakfast speech and then a week later in Sintra, Portugal he was hawkish vis-à-vis the BOE need to look at interest rates rising soon…. really.\r\n\r\nWhen is soon?  For me it’s anything from a week or so to a few months. For my boy Labrador, Ozzy, soon equals now, in fact in his language it means yesterday!\r\n\r\nI just don’t get Carney. His forward guidance pre-BREXIT was shite to put it mildly and frankly he just digs huge holes for himself to fall into. He will probably flip-flop again against the backdrop of this week’s data\r\n\r\nI am looking at pressure on wages, household spending, retail sales, consumer confidence and housing in the UK as well as last week’s data and I am NOT getting a warm fuzzy feeling at all. Carney’s flip-flopping made feck all sense to me. It looked like a childish “TRUMPLIKE” action because at the ECB Economic Forum both Draghi (ECB) and Poloz (BOC) were both very hawkish about the future.\r\n\r\nI just cannot see the BOE raising rates this year and probably not well into 2018. There are just too many BREXIT uncertainties combined with poor economic data. Never mind Haldane’s economists view on inflation.\r\n\r\nI think that it is quite simple. There is just too much to risk with BREXIT.\r\n\r\nWas it David Bloom (Global Head FX Strategy) HSBC who predicted cable back at 1.2000 and EUR/GBP at parity a few weeks ago?\r\n\r\nHmmn… good calls maybe!</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>USD (FOMC Meeting Minutes, PMi data, ADP and NFP):Indecision… indecision.\r\n\r\nPersonally in my opinion it’s obvious that the FED cannot agree on peripheral policy moving forward.\r\n\r\nBalance sheet tapering is the new buzz phrase now.\r\n\r\nFrankly, I believe the FED are going to continue moving forward relentlessly in their normalization policy to ensure that they have tools in the box to use as we head into another global worldwide recession. With this move in play who gives a f**k about Balance Sheet tapering.\r\n\r\nThe TRUMP administration has been bogged down by a dysfunctional party line divided Washington D.C. not helped by the fact that TRUMP himself continues to score own goals with his twitter feed in the name of keeping his core support informed.\r\n\r\nThe “ART OF THE DEAL” has been beaten by career politicians who couldn’t give a shit. The draining of the swamp was not as straightforward as he thought and he has been largely ineffective. The Washington machine has won but at what cost?\r\n\r\nPMi data was good last week with consensus levels being beaten with both Manufacturing (57.8) and Non-Manufacturing (57.4) data. This shows life in the economy. However, Autos, Housing, Retail Sales and Confidence drives the “Ultimate Consumer society” and these are very mixed to say the least.\r\n\r\nADP employment was a miss 158k versus 185k expected.\r\n\r\nNFP data was 222k versus 179k expected, once again the ADP and NFP numbers show no consistency and leading up to NFP U.S. data was NOT supportive of a beat! It was the average Hourly Rate that caused concern for the markets as the data was released. It remained at a constant 0.2%, the markets were expecting growth to 0.3%.\r\n\r\nThe market reaction was in my own opinion very minimal to the data. Without doubt the “hourlies” stunted the market reaction.\r\n\r\nI find it very hard with U.S. labour statistics as they are always being revised. They should buy a computer like mine and get a guy in from “O and M” to sort out a reporting system that works properly the first time. It is just a bloody nonsense that these numbers are never accurate. Here’s an idea… report the data in week two of the month rather than week one!! Try to give yourselves some credibility.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>BREXIT:The negotiations have started in Brussels. Nothing much at all is being leaked. This surprises me, or maybe they are still agreeing on what pens to use on what size of paper?</li>\r\n 	<li>BOJ (Kuroda and Central Bank comments on Bond Purchases):Bucking the trend of other high profile Central Bank governors, the BOJ re-asserted its commitment at all costs to continue with its BOND purchasing program. The BOJ remains DOVISH.</li>\r\n 	<li>OIL:The helter-skelter price action continues. First bearish, then bullish and into the close of last week reversing the bullish move to move bearish once again.\r\n\r\nAll this with a backdrop of conflict, mis-trust and tension in the middle east.\r\nSaudi Arabia – Qatar, Saudi Arabia – Iran, Saudi Arabia – Yemen and Egypt – Libya.\r\n\r\nEven myself; the most bearish OIL person on the planet, because of simple supply and demand economic theory, would concede that maybe a spike higher given the tension could be argued in favour of price action towards $55-$60 a barrel.\r\n\r\nWhat a strange world we live in.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU – LIVE WEBINAR:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThere is a summer break with my LIVE WEBINARS they will return in the fall / autumn.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ECON-DATA-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9665\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ECON-DATA-09072017-1024x998.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"998\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>MY THOUGHTS ON THE ECONOMIC DATA EVENTS THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>BOC: This is the pick of the week for me based upon the recent hawkish sentiment change from Stephen Poloz (Governor BOC).The big question is of course, is he ready to sanction a rate increase this week?\r\n\r\nAnalysts believe so, and a 0.25% increase to 0.75% has been predicted.\r\n\r\nCan you imagine what would happen to the CAD pairs should he not raise rates? Since his deputy announced a couple of weeks ago that the dovish approach could be ending, the USD/CAD has fallen from 1.3600 to sub 1.3000.\r\n\r\nIf the rate hike happens, is there more left to fall? Dead right there is; I think that 1.2760 is an obvious target.\r\n\r\nHowever, should he not hike now, what would happen?\r\n\r\nIn my opinion I think we could see a fast retrace to around 1.3250, but this could be tempered by the accompanying commentary and again with the press conference 75 minutes later.\r\n\r\nI think that the ramifications of not raising rates would be incredible and although I am not positioned short USD/CAD etc. at the moment, I hope to have positions in profit with stop losses at break-even just in case… you just never know.\r\n\r\nMany Central Bank governors appear to suffer from “premature verbage”. It is quite a targeted disease.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li>JANET YELLEN – Semi-annual Monetary Policy Report:I hate writing this but we are back on a “will she / won’t she” raise rates again this year news cycle.\r\n\r\nJust a word of caution her prepared speech is released to the markets 90 minutes prior to her taking her seat to deliver it and then ask questions.</li>\r\n 	<li>USD (Producer and Consumer prices / Retail Sales):Thursday’s and Friday’s data will be interesting to follow.\r\n\r\nThese will be crucial to the markets re the hike or no further hike scenarios, however I feel the FED is raising regardless one more time this year, probably in December.\r\n\r\nTime will tell.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>USD MAJORS – SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS TO NOTE THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/TCHART-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9666\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/TCHART-09072017-1024x855.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"855\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n<strong>EUR/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/EURUSD-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9675\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/EURUSD-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>GBP/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/GBPUSD-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9676\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/GBPUSD-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>AUD/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/AUDUSD-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9674\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/AUDUSD-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>NZD/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/NZDUSD-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9677\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/NZDUSD-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CAD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCAD-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9678\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCAD-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CHF:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCHF-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9679\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCHF-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/JPY:</strong>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDJPY-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9680\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDJPY-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE?</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber based Forex support service offering not just trade set-ups, but a bunch of different support services that differentiates the PREMIUM SERVICE from other providers, my competitors, that operate in the same space.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\nSo; if nothing else, I tell it how it is. I am currently about 50% of my target for this time of the year. I had a poor start to the year and I am now following a vacation and house move in recovery mode.\r\n\r\nIn 2014, 2015 and 2016 I beat my 10,000 pip per annum objective. There is nothing stopping me doing the same this year as my house move and vacation are both behind me. I will be trading pretty much full time from now on through to the end of 2017.\r\n\r\nIf you want to be a part of what I hope will be a storming end to 2017, login at my website and get subscribed. I mean business from here on in.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nMONTH TO DATE:  +675 pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE:      +3,080 pips\r\nIf you would like to know a little more about THE PREMIUM SERVICE please feel free to watch the following 40-minute video via the link below:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://bit.ly/PremServiceQ217\">http://bit.ly/PremServiceQ217</a>\r\n\r\nPLEASE NOTE: the above video is best viewed using a Google Chrome browser.\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><strong>WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION?</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIf you would like to be in the monthly draw to win a “FREE 10-WEEK SUBSCRIPTION” to the PREMIUM SERVICE, valued at CAD$500.00, all you should do is subscribe to receive this FREE NEWSLETTER on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nThis can be done as follows: -\r\n\r\nOn my welcome page just below my cube logo is where you complete your subscription.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"7\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:\r\n</strong>(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\nWe added 675 pips to the PREMIUM SERVICE annual total last week, plus counting the week before almost 1,000 pips in two weeks. I am happy with this.\r\n\r\nLast week, being FOMC Minutes and U.S. jobs data week, I closed out of many positions early to bank $$$ as you just never know what reaction to the news the markets will give you plus NFP for me is most of the time a bit of a lottery and from a conservative trading point of view it’s better to bank pips and $$$ rather than gamble positions away.\r\nThus, I will now be adding back positions over the next few days on pullbacks. I see many pairs such as EUR pairs a buy on dips scenario (EUR/CAD excepted) and I do want to sell into strength with the AUD/USD and NZD/USD once again.\r\n\r\nAs usual the issue with these trades is being patient, waiting for prices to come to come to you. This is the art of trading for the long haul not to get caught up in the emotion of moves that you are not participating in.\r\n\r\nIn addition, I am looking at the emerging market pairs once again; USD/MXN, USD/TRY and USD/ZAR. In my eyes these represent good value from a risk/reward perspective.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>TRADE ENVIRONMENT:</u>\r\n\r\nI think that Janet Yellen’s testimony this week, will set the tone moving forward.\r\n\r\nIf she turns dovish again or in any way looks hesitant to keep raising rates the USD will get hammered. She holds the short / medium term keys to momentum over the summer in my opinion.\r\n\r\nAs you know, my views are that the FED will raise rates in line with “the dots” and regardless of economic data which they will pass off as “transitory” as their goal appears to be normalization as soon as possible.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\nCORE TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\nI need to start again after last week’s closeouts.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nPREMIUM SERVICE - TRADES REVIEW<strong>:</strong>\r\n\r\nCURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE - LIVE TRADES:\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/IVE-TRADES-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9667\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/IVE-TRADES-09072017-963x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"963\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\nCURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE – LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/LIMIT-ORDERS-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9668\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/LIMIT-ORDERS-09072017-818x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"818\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"8\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE SOAPBOX:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>\r\nARE WE APPROACHING THE TIPPING POINT?</strong>\r\n\r\nSince returning from vacation in New Zealand and Australia, my SOAPBOX titles have been: -\r\n\r\nARE THE GAME KEEPERS NOW POACHERS?\r\nGBP – IS IT A LONG OR SHORT TRADE?\r\nIS THE CENTRAL BANK DIVERGENCE TRADE FINALLY IN PLAY?\r\n\r\nAll three items have generated a lot of likes and a few comments as usual, most nice but a few not so nice.\r\n\r\nNow; either I have lost the plot, which could be the case, or economically things are really motoring along and policies are changing so fast that unease is being created in the marketplace?\r\n\r\nAlmost as soon as I wrote about “The Divergence trade” Draghi, Poloz and Carney all came out HAWKISH.\r\n\r\nI analyzed the cable and its cross-rates and within a week or so we have Carney “flip-flop”.\r\n\r\nFinally, the Central banks except BOC, walked back hawkish comments in the aftermath of the reaction to the change in sentiment. This shows to me the dilemma the central banks are in on the basis that they want to alert the markets of potential policy changes in the pipeline, but do not want the currency fluctuations that go with any announcement, which I can understand.\r\n\r\nNow I am not raising the issue that as soon as I write in the DRIVE THRU the market sentiment reverses because I have raised an issue. I am writing stating that as a FUNDAMENTAL trader the fundamentals that I am working with are now changing, and that, I believe we are approaching the TIPPING POINT for sentiment / momentum / central bank policy and reactions to economic data shifting. These items alone won’t bring us over the edge but in conjunction with a major geopolitical event… dare I even say it BLACK SWAN event.\r\n\r\nJust based on recent factors we have noticed attitudes and reactions are changing. In the past, we would have seen big moves on geopolitical events now the markets are largely muted. This is complacency in my opinion. Trying to place my thoughts logically for this section was a bit challenging, I hope you can follow without too many re-reads.\r\n\r\nLet me elaborate a bit, bear with me: -\r\n\r\nThere are many examples of this primarily with the BOE through the “flip flopper” and the ECB through Mario Draghi and his hangers on (Wiedmann and Nowotny) over a potential taper tantrum and interest rate policy in the medium–term amongst other issues.\r\n\r\nHowever, I prefer to use Janet Yellen and the FED/FOMC as my example, otherwise I will have pages and pages of stuff.\r\n\r\nGo back in time to Ben Bernanke, then add on Yellen’s tenure up to the TRUMP presidential victory in 2016. I think that it would be safe to say that the FED telegraphed every move to the markets… absolutely no surprises. Every piece of data was analyzed and reviewed over and over vis-à-vis context and the impact on the market was scrutinized left, right and centre.\r\n\r\nWith Janet Yellen this policy of total transparency continued up to the FED press conference in December 2016.\r\n\r\nBased upon the backdrop of a Pseudo republican victory via “THE DONALD” it all changed.\r\n\r\nThe markets got bulled up about tax cuts, infrastructure spending, less controls on medical costs as it was a policy to repeal Obamacare (The Affordable Care Act). Regulation on Wall Street would be reduced and monies owned by multi-national US companies lodged outside of the US would be repatriated back under a tax incentive scheme. Companies would be encouraged through lower taxation to retain a U.S. presence instead of moving outside of the U.S. because of high local taxes and cheaper labour costs elsewhere.\r\n\r\nI think that I am correct in saying 6 months in and “THE DONALD” has achieved zero on that list.\r\n\r\nHowever, was the FED also bulled up and wanting to get ahead of the curve that it had been so many times criticized of being behind on?\r\n\r\nWithout doubt this year with a backdrop of very mixed, sometimes poor U.S. economic data the FED has marched on with rate increases regardless.\r\n\r\nIt is out of character for Janet Yellen, who frankly sounds DOVISH even when she is delivering HAWKISH sentiment.\r\n\r\nHas this complete change of policy by the FED lit a fire under other central banks?\r\n\r\nI think that The FED’s outright disregard for data dependency of late has created a sea change. However, notably, the BOJ under Kuroda has signaled that the support to the market through bond purchasing will continue. The backdrop to this very recent BOJ announcement was that Kuroda has no fresh ideas and should be replaced. The RBA under relatively new governor, Philip Lowe left policy neutral last week when many were calling for a more hawkish tone.\r\n\r\nIs it now a case of, the FED is changing policy regardless of data so we should all change?\r\n\r\nI would have thought most central banks could get away with a lag in timing hence my piece about CENTRAL BANK DIVERGENCE four weeks ago. After all the divergence for as long as possible should help home exporters and dis-advantage the U.S. exporters at the same time. A little bit of that can’t be bad… I would have thought.\r\n\r\nLooking at the macro level it looks like a sea change is in effect and we are about to change fundamentally.\r\n\r\nWhilst I talk in the present… the now; do not forget we are still dealing with culture and a central bank’s monetary policies are slow to turn around, we are in 2017 there will be communications and a gentle feed into any changes. The wham-bam-thank-you-mam approach of especially Mario Draghi will be re-thought and a more leisurely delivery in bite sized chunks will be adopted, I am certain of this.\r\n\r\nSo; how does it translate into forex trading?\r\n\r\nFX is noted as being a future pricing instrument. As we know, the markets react, then re-think and correct if required.\r\n\r\nThe FED with its present approach in normal circumstances from my perspective tell you that the USD will strengthen and challenge 100.00 once again with US $ index (DXY). In fact, the USD cannot get out of its own way… why?\r\n\r\nThe single currency was hit so hard but is so resilient it never hit parity, never mind sub parity as some banks were calling. Economically the EUROZONE was so poor (it still is in some countries) it was beaten up so bad, it has the greatest opportunity given the TRUMP administration ineffectiveness to bounce back. In 2017, the markets decided that at some stage the ECB will turn hawkish so the single currency has been generally supported at the expense of the DXY moving back to 100.00 once again.\r\n\r\nThe result of all this putting the shenanigans to one side is wide trading ranges. If you look across most currency pairs especially with the USD majors we are in trading ranges: -\r\n\r\nEUR/USD: 1.1200 – 1.1450\r\nGBP/USD: 1.2600 – 1.3050\r\nAUD/USD: 0.7300 – 0.7750\r\nNZD/USD: 0.6820 - 0.7350\r\nUSD/CHF: 0.9550 – 1.0150\r\nUSD/JPY: 108.00 – 114.50\r\n\r\nThese ranges can be described as large ranges but you can also mark off mini-ranges within these levels that contain the price action. I know, we are in the summer doldrums of trading and ranges within ranges are commonplace. I agree with this but there’s more going on in the peripheral and reactions to potential disturbing geopolitical events are muted to say the least.\r\n\r\nTherefore, what I see is that the TIPPING POINT will be a bit of a domino event triggered by a geopolitical event, the bigger than normal central bank policy decision, or, a governmental policy decision that shakes the market so much that even these broad trading ranges noted above are broken with the result being a major shift in policy both for governments and central banks. This creates a market panic.\r\n\r\nSo let me drill this thought down a little more. Triggers starting this domino effect could be such as the following: -\r\n\r\nNORTH KOREA nuclear flexing.\r\nMIDDLE EASTERN tensions over spilling into OIL supplies grinding to a halt.\r\nA NEW WORLD ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN leading to recession.\r\n\r\nI am sure you can think of a few more items for the list, but I hope you get my point. There is so much uncertainty and lack of clarity dotted about, I believe we are prime for a big move.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"9\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #140 PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS VERSION\r\nDATE: 9th July 2017','ARE WE APPROACHING THE TIPPING POINT?','','inherit','closed','closed','','9681-revision-v1','','','2017-07-08 11:06:33','2017-07-08 16:06:33','',9681,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/9681-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(9682,1,'2017-07-08 11:04:46','2017-07-08 16:04:46','&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nAfter the week before last week with its non-stop fun (my ex. work buddies would now be on the floor pissing themselves laughing at that opening remark), we had a rather more sedated look to the markets the week just gone. It was a holiday week in both Canada and the US, with the Independence Day holiday in many cases being extended by an extra day’s holiday being taken to make it a very long weekend for some traders. Thus, it was really a three-day week for near normal, bear in mind that it is also the summer, market participation.\r\n\r\nFrom my own trading perspective with a vacation and house move well in the rear-view mirror over 600 pips were added to the PREMIUM SERVICE total for 2017 in the three days on closed trades.\r\n\r\nI will always tell it how it is. Trying to focus on trading when in the middle of a house move and then setting up in a house plus a vacation around the same time, is practically impossible and I count myself as well disciplined.\r\n\r\nI am now settled into my new environment and the fruits of this are starting to come through in my set up and trades undertaken. I have never doubted my abilities to generate $$$ and pips and I am now fully engaged in playing catch up to meet my 10,000-pip objective for 2017. It is a tall order given the start to 2017, but I am 100% focused on the requirements ahead.\r\n\r\nAs I wrote to PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers last week, I trade for the long haul and I will NOT take on trades just for the sake of trades. Whilst I have an ambitious target to meet, I will not sacrifice my TRADING DISCIPLINES outlined in my TRADE PLAN. These I hold dear as they provide longevity in trading which is paramount to trading success in my opinion.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> LAST WEEK – MY TAKE ON SOME KEY EVENTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nDespite a shortened week from my perspective there were still a few takeaways of note.\r\n\r\nIn no particular order, here is what floated my boat last week.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>AUD (RBA):\r\n\r\nPhilip Lowe delivered a very interesting statement, which to some extent caught some of the market off guard.\r\n\r\nFrom the prior week’s “Rock Star” adulation that followed Draghi, Poloz and Carney after they all turned hawkish, I think many pundits expected the same from Philip Lowe.\r\n\r\nThe RBA remained neutral and the AUD weakened across the board. The takeaways that stood out for me were: -\r\n\r\nPolicy is consistent with: -\r\n\r\nGrowth and inflation targets\r\nIndicators of Labour Demand remain mixed.\r\nEmployment Growth has been stronger over recent months.\r\nSigns that the housing market is starting to cool.\r\nHousing Debt has outpaced the slow growth in incomes.\r\nA rising AUD$ would complicate the economic adjustment.\r\n\r\nBasically, it was a do not “Rock the Boat” approach.\r\n\r\nAustralian exports are not going to argue with the approach as the appreciating AUD$ is a pain.</li>\r\n 	<li>GBP (PMi, Industrial and Manufacturing Output data plus Mark Carney):\r\n\r\nAll three PMi figures were misses on consensus expectations (Manufacturing (54.3), Construction (54.8) and Services (53.4)).\r\n\r\nNow, I am not shouting from the rooftops saying that the UK economy is about to fall off a cliff, but I am so damn close to doing so. It was a crap week for UK economic data.\r\n\r\nThe PMI data was all well above the “50 level” but maybe now just over a year after the referendum vote was taken, the concerns are starting to creep in.\r\n\r\nThe Industrial (0.1% versus 0.4% expected) and Manufacturing (0.2% versus 0.5% expected) data released on Friday last week were just poor. Whilst they are by no means top tier data releases the simple fact is so much UK data is poor it should have an impact. (It’s had an impact on my thoughts!).\r\n\r\nAfter the BREXIT vote in June 2016 the UK economy looked positive in fact quite resilient but 2017 is the opposite. The BREXIT uncertainty has come through in most aspects of the economy.\r\n\r\nI realise that the recent MPC vote was 5-3 and not 7-1 as expected. Carney was dovish in his Mansion House breakfast speech and then a week later in Sintra, Portugal he was hawkish vis-à-vis the BOE need to look at interest rates rising soon…. really.\r\n\r\nWhen is soon?  For me it’s anything from a week or so to a few months. For my boy Labrador, Ozzy, soon equals now, in fact in his language it means yesterday!\r\n\r\nI just don’t get Carney. His forward guidance pre-BREXIT was shite to put it mildly and frankly he just digs huge holes for himself to fall into. He will probably flip-flop again against the backdrop of this week’s data\r\n\r\nI am looking at pressure on wages, household spending, retail sales, consumer confidence and housing in the UK as well as last week’s data and I am NOT getting a warm fuzzy feeling at all. Carney’s flip-flopping made feck all sense to me. It looked like a childish “TRUMPLIKE” action because at the ECB Economic Forum both Draghi (ECB) and Poloz (BOC) were both very hawkish about the future.\r\n\r\nI just cannot see the BOE raising rates this year and probably not well into 2018. There are just too many BREXIT uncertainties combined with poor economic data. Never mind Haldane’s economists view on inflation.\r\n\r\nI think that it is quite simple. There is just too much to risk with BREXIT.\r\n\r\nWas it David Bloom (Global Head FX Strategy) HSBC who predicted cable back at 1.2000 and EUR/GBP at parity a few weeks ago?\r\n\r\nHmmn… good calls maybe!</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\"></p>\r\n\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>USD (FOMC Meeting Minutes, PMi data, ADP and NFP):\r\n\r\nIndecision… indecision.\r\n\r\nPersonally in my opinion it’s obvious that the FED cannot agree on peripheral policy moving forward.\r\n\r\nBalance sheet tapering is the new buzz phrase now.\r\n\r\nFrankly, I believe the FED are going to continue moving forward relentlessly in their normalization policy to ensure that they have tools in the box to use as we head into another global worldwide recession. With this move in play who gives a f**k about Balance Sheet tapering.\r\n\r\nThe TRUMP administration has been bogged down by a dysfunctional party line divided Washington D.C. not helped by the fact that TRUMP himself continues to score own goals with his twitter feed in the name of keeping his core support informed.\r\n\r\nThe “ART OF THE DEAL” has been beaten by career politicians who couldn’t give a shit. The draining of the swamp was not as straightforward as he thought and he has been largely ineffective. The Washington machine has won but at what cost?\r\n\r\nPMi data was good last week with consensus levels being beaten with both Manufacturing (57.8) and Non-Manufacturing (57.4) data. This shows life in the economy. However, Autos, Housing, Retail Sales and Confidence drives the “Ultimate Consumer society” and these are very mixed to say the least.\r\n\r\nADP employment was a miss 158k versus 185k expected.\r\n\r\nNFP data was 222k versus 179k expected, once again the ADP and NFP numbers show no consistency and leading up to NFP U.S. data was NOT supportive of a beat! It was the average Hourly Rate that caused concern for the markets as the data was released. It remained at a constant 0.2%, the markets were expecting growth to 0.3%.\r\n\r\nThe market reaction was in my own opinion very minimal to the data. Without doubt the “hourlies” stunted the market reaction.\r\n\r\nI find it very hard with U.S. labour statistics as they are always being revised. They should buy a computer like mine and get a guy in from “O and M” to sort out a reporting system that works properly the first time. It is just a bloody nonsense that these numbers are never accurate. Here’s an idea… report the data in week two of the month rather than week one!! Try to give yourselves some credibility.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>BREXIT:\r\n\r\nThe negotiations have started in Brussels. Nothing much at all is being leaked. This surprises me, or maybe they are still agreeing on what pens to use on what size of paper?</li>\r\n 	<li>BOJ (Kuroda and Central Bank comments on Bond Purchases):\r\n\r\nBucking the trend of other high profile Central Bank governors, the BOJ re-asserted its commitment at all costs to continue with its BOND purchasing program. The BOJ remains DOVISH.</li>\r\n 	<li>OIL:\r\n\r\nThe helter-skelter price action continues. First bearish, then bullish and into the close of last week reversing the bullish move to move bearish once again.\r\n\r\nAll this with a backdrop of conflict, mis-trust and tension in the middle east.\r\nSaudi Arabia – Qatar, Saudi Arabia – Iran, Saudi Arabia – Yemen and Egypt – Libya.\r\n\r\nEven myself; the most bearish OIL person on the planet, because of simple supply and demand economic theory, would concede that maybe a spike higher given the tension could be argued in favour of price action towards $55-$60 a barrel.\r\n\r\nWhat a strange world we live in.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU – LIVE WEBINAR:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThere is a summer break with my LIVE WEBINARS they will return in the fall / autumn.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ECON-DATA-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9665\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ECON-DATA-09072017-1024x998.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"998\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>MY THOUGHTS ON THE ECONOMIC DATA EVENTS THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>BOC: This is the pick of the week for me based upon the recent hawkish sentiment change from Stephen Poloz (Governor BOC).\r\n\r\nThe big question is of course, is he ready to sanction a rate increase this week?\r\n\r\nAnalysts believe so, and a 0.25% increase to 0.75% has been predicted.\r\n\r\nCan you imagine what would happen to the CAD pairs should he not raise rates? Since his deputy announced a couple of weeks ago that the dovish approach could be ending, the USD/CAD has fallen from 1.3600 to sub 1.3000.\r\n\r\nIf the rate hike happens, is there more left to fall? Dead right there is; I think that 1.2760 is an obvious target.\r\n\r\nHowever, should he not hike now, what would happen?\r\n\r\nIn my opinion I think we could see a fast retrace to around 1.3250, but this could be tempered by the accompanying commentary and again with the press conference 75 minutes later.\r\n\r\nI think that the ramifications of not raising rates would be incredible and although I am not positioned short USD/CAD etc. at the moment, I hope to have positions in profit with stop losses at break-even just in case… you just never know.\r\n\r\nMany Central Bank governors appear to suffer from “premature verbage”. It is quite a targeted disease.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li>JANET YELLEN – Semi-annual Monetary Policy Report:\r\n\r\nI hate writing this but we are back on a “will she / won’t she” raise rates again this year news cycle.\r\n\r\nJust a word of caution her prepared speech is released to the markets 90 minutes prior to her taking her seat to deliver it and then ask questions.</li>\r\n 	<li>USD (Producer and Consumer prices / Retail Sales):\r\n\r\nThursday’s and Friday’s data will be interesting to follow.\r\n\r\nThese will be crucial to the markets re the hike or no further hike scenarios, however I feel the FED is raising regardless one more time this year, probably in December.\r\n\r\nTime will tell.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>USD MAJORS – SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS TO NOTE THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/TCHART-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9666\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/TCHART-09072017-1024x855.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"855\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n<strong>EUR/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/EURUSD-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9675\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/EURUSD-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>GBP/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/GBPUSD-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9676\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/GBPUSD-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>AUD/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/AUDUSD-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9674\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/AUDUSD-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>NZD/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/NZDUSD-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9677\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/NZDUSD-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CAD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCAD-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9678\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCAD-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CHF:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCHF-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9679\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCHF-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/JPY:</strong>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDJPY-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9680\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDJPY-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE?</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber based Forex support service offering not just trade set-ups, but a bunch of different support services that differentiates the PREMIUM SERVICE from other providers, my competitors, that operate in the same space.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\nSo; if nothing else, I tell it how it is. I am currently about 50% of my target for this time of the year. I had a poor start to the year and I am now following a vacation and house move in recovery mode.\r\n\r\nIn 2014, 2015 and 2016 I beat my 10,000 pip per annum objective. There is nothing stopping me doing the same this year as my house move and vacation are both behind me. I will be trading pretty much full time from now on through to the end of 2017.\r\n\r\nIf you want to be a part of what I hope will be a storming end to 2017, login at my website and get subscribed. I mean business from here on in.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nMONTH TO DATE:  +675 pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE:      +3,080 pips\r\nIf you would like to know a little more about THE PREMIUM SERVICE please feel free to watch the following 40-minute video via the link below:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://bit.ly/PremServiceQ217\">http://bit.ly/PremServiceQ217</a>\r\n\r\nPLEASE NOTE: the above video is best viewed using a Google Chrome browser.\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><strong>WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION?</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIf you would like to be in the monthly draw to win a “FREE 10-WEEK SUBSCRIPTION” to the PREMIUM SERVICE, valued at CAD$500.00, all you should do is subscribe to receive this FREE NEWSLETTER on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nThis can be done as follows: -\r\n\r\nOn my welcome page just below my cube logo is where you complete your subscription.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"7\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:\r\n</strong>(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\nWe added 675 pips to the PREMIUM SERVICE annual total last week, plus counting the week before almost 1,000 pips in two weeks. I am happy with this.\r\n\r\nLast week, being FOMC Minutes and U.S. jobs data week, I closed out of many positions early to bank $$$ as you just never know what reaction to the news the markets will give you plus NFP for me is most of the time a bit of a lottery and from a conservative trading point of view it’s better to bank pips and $$$ rather than gamble positions away.\r\nThus, I will now be adding back positions over the next few days on pullbacks. I see many pairs such as EUR pairs a buy on dips scenario (EUR/CAD excepted) and I do want to sell into strength with the AUD/USD and NZD/USD once again.\r\n\r\nAs usual the issue with these trades is being patient, waiting for prices to come to come to you. This is the art of trading for the long haul not to get caught up in the emotion of moves that you are not participating in.\r\n\r\nIn addition, I am looking at the emerging market pairs once again; USD/MXN, USD/TRY and USD/ZAR. In my eyes these represent good value from a risk/reward perspective.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>TRADE ENVIRONMENT:</u>\r\n\r\nI think that Janet Yellen’s testimony this week, will set the tone moving forward.\r\n\r\nIf she turns dovish again or in any way looks hesitant to keep raising rates the USD will get hammered. She holds the short / medium term keys to momentum over the summer in my opinion.\r\n\r\nAs you know, my views are that the FED will raise rates in line with “the dots” and regardless of economic data which they will pass off as “transitory” as their goal appears to be normalization as soon as possible.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\nCORE TRADES:\r\n\r\n</u>I need to start again after last week’s closeouts.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n\r\nPREMIUM SERVICE - TRADES REVIEW<strong>:</strong></u>\r\n\r\nCURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE - LIVE TRADES:\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/IVE-TRADES-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9667\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/IVE-TRADES-09072017-963x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"963\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\nCURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE – LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/LIMIT-ORDERS-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9668\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/LIMIT-ORDERS-09072017-818x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"818\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"8\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE SOAPBOX:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>\r\nARE WE APPROACHING THE TIPPING POINT?</strong>\r\n\r\nSince returning from vacation in New Zealand and Australia, my SOAPBOX titles have been: -\r\n\r\nARE THE GAME KEEPERS NOW POACHERS?\r\nGBP – IS IT A LONG OR SHORT TRADE?\r\nIS THE CENTRAL BANK DIVERGENCE TRADE FINALLY IN PLAY?\r\n\r\nAll three items have generated a lot of likes and a few comments as usual, most nice but a few not so nice.\r\n\r\nNow; either I have lost the plot, which could be the case, or economically things are really motoring along and policies are changing so fast that unease is being created in the marketplace?\r\n\r\nAlmost as soon as I wrote about “The Divergence trade” Draghi, Poloz and Carney all came out HAWKISH.\r\n\r\nI analyzed the cable and its cross-rates and within a week or so we have Carney “flip-flop”.\r\n\r\nFinally, the Central banks except BOC, walked back hawkish comments in the aftermath of the reaction to the change in sentiment. This shows to me the dilemma the central banks are in on the basis that they want to alert the markets of potential policy changes in the pipeline, but do not want the currency fluctuations that go with any announcement, which I can understand.\r\n\r\nNow I am not raising the issue that as soon as I write in the DRIVE THRU the market sentiment reverses because I have raised an issue. I am writing stating that as a FUNDAMENTAL trader the fundamentals that I am working with are now changing, and that, I believe we are approaching the TIPPING POINT for sentiment / momentum / central bank policy and reactions to economic data shifting. These items alone won’t bring us over the edge but in conjunction with a major geopolitical event… dare I even say it BLACK SWAN event.\r\n\r\nJust based on recent factors we have noticed attitudes and reactions are changing. In the past, we would have seen big moves on geopolitical events now the markets are largely muted. This is complacency in my opinion. Trying to place my thoughts logically for this section was a bit challenging, I hope you can follow without too many re-reads.\r\n\r\nLet me elaborate a bit, bear with me: -\r\n\r\nThere are many examples of this primarily with the BOE through the “flip flopper” and the ECB through Mario Draghi and his hangers on (Wiedmann and Nowotny) over a potential taper tantrum and interest rate policy in the medium–term amongst other issues.\r\n\r\nHowever, I prefer to use Janet Yellen and the FED/FOMC as my example, otherwise I will have pages and pages of stuff.\r\n\r\nGo back in time to Ben Bernanke, then add on Yellen’s tenure up to the TRUMP presidential victory in 2016. I think that it would be safe to say that the FED telegraphed every move to the markets… absolutely no surprises. Every piece of data was analyzed and reviewed over and over vis-à-vis context and the impact on the market was scrutinized left, right and centre.\r\n\r\nWith Janet Yellen this policy of total transparency continued up to the FED press conference in December 2016.\r\n\r\nBased upon the backdrop of a Pseudo republican victory via “THE DONALD” it all changed.\r\n\r\nThe markets got bulled up about tax cuts, infrastructure spending, less controls on medical costs as it was a policy to repeal Obamacare (The Affordable Care Act). Regulation on Wall Street would be reduced and monies owned by multi-national US companies lodged outside of the US would be repatriated back under a tax incentive scheme. Companies would be encouraged through lower taxation to retain a U.S. presence instead of moving outside of the U.S. because of high local taxes and cheaper labour costs elsewhere.\r\n\r\nI think that I am correct in saying 6 months in and “THE DONALD” has achieved zero on that list.\r\n\r\nHowever, was the FED also bulled up and wanting to get ahead of the curve that it had been so many times criticized of being behind on?\r\n\r\nWithout doubt this year with a backdrop of very mixed, sometimes poor U.S. economic data the FED has marched on with rate increases regardless.\r\n\r\nIt is out of character for Janet Yellen, who frankly sounds DOVISH even when she is delivering HAWKISH sentiment.\r\n\r\nHas this complete change of policy by the FED lit a fire under other central banks?\r\n\r\nI think that The FED’s outright disregard for data dependency of late has created a sea change. However, notably, the BOJ under Kuroda has signaled that the support to the market through bond purchasing will continue. The backdrop to this very recent BOJ announcement was that Kuroda has no fresh ideas and should be replaced. The RBA under relatively new governor, Philip Lowe left policy neutral last week when many were calling for a more hawkish tone.\r\n\r\nIs it now a case of, the FED is changing policy regardless of data so we should all change?\r\n\r\nI would have thought most central banks could get away with a lag in timing hence my piece about CENTRAL BANK DIVERGENCE four weeks ago. After all the divergence for as long as possible should help home exporters and dis-advantage the U.S. exporters at the same time. A little bit of that can’t be bad… I would have thought.\r\n\r\nLooking at the macro level it looks like a sea change is in effect and we are about to change fundamentally.\r\n\r\nWhilst I talk in the present… the now; do not forget we are still dealing with culture and a central bank’s monetary policies are slow to turn around, we are in 2017 there will be communications and a gentle feed into any changes. The wham-bam-thank-you-mam approach of especially Mario Draghi will be re-thought and a more leisurely delivery in bite sized chunks will be adopted, I am certain of this.\r\n\r\nSo; how does it translate into forex trading?\r\n\r\nFX is noted as being a future pricing instrument. As we know, the markets react, then re-think and correct if required.\r\n\r\nThe FED with its present approach in normal circumstances from my perspective tell you that the USD will strengthen and challenge 100.00 once again with US $ index (DXY). In fact, the USD cannot get out of its own way… why?\r\n\r\nThe single currency was hit so hard but is so resilient it never hit parity, never mind sub parity as some banks were calling. Economically the EUROZONE was so poor (it still is in some countries) it was beaten up so bad, it has the greatest opportunity given the TRUMP administration ineffectiveness to bounce back. In 2017, the markets decided that at some stage the ECB will turn hawkish so the single currency has been generally supported at the expense of the DXY moving back to 100.00 once again.\r\n\r\nThe result of all this putting the shenanigans to one side is wide trading ranges. If you look across most currency pairs especially with the USD majors we are in trading ranges: -\r\n\r\nEUR/USD: 1.1200 – 1.1450\r\nGBP/USD: 1.2600 – 1.3050\r\nAUD/USD: 0.7300 – 0.7750\r\nNZD/USD: 0.6820 - 0.7350\r\nUSD/CHF: 0.9550 – 1.0150\r\nUSD/JPY: 108.00 – 114.50\r\n\r\nThese ranges can be described as large ranges but you can also mark off mini-ranges within these levels that contain the price action. I know, we are in the summer doldrums of trading and ranges within ranges are commonplace. I agree with this but there’s more going on in the peripheral and reactions to potential disturbing geopolitical events are muted to say the least.\r\n\r\nTherefore, what I see is that the TIPPING POINT will be a bit of a domino event triggered by a geopolitical event, the bigger than normal central bank policy decision, or, a governmental policy decision that shakes the market so much that even these broad trading ranges noted above are broken with the result being a major shift in policy both for governments and central banks. This creates a market panic.\r\n\r\nSo let me drill this thought down a little more. Triggers starting this domino effect could be such as the following: -\r\n\r\nNORTH KOREA nuclear flexing.\r\nMIDDLE EASTERN tensions over spilling into OIL supplies grinding to a halt.\r\nA NEW WORLD ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN leading to recession.\r\n\r\nI am sure you can think of a few more items for the list, but I hope you get my point. There is so much uncertainty and lack of clarity dotted about, I believe we are prime for a big move.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"9\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #140 PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS VERSION\r\nDATE: 9th July 2017','ARE WE APPROACHING THE TIPPING POINT?','','inherit','closed','closed','','9681-revision-v1','','','2017-07-08 11:04:46','2017-07-08 16:04:46','',9681,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/9681-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(9684,1,'2017-07-08 11:35:03','2017-07-08 16:35:03','&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nAfter the week before last week with its non-stop fun (my ex. work buddies would now be on the floor pissing themselves laughing at that opening remark), we had a rather more sedated look to the markets the week just gone. It was a holiday week in both Canada and the US, with the Independence Day holiday in many cases being extended by an extra day’s holiday being taken to make it a very long weekend for some traders. Thus, it was really a three-day week for near normal, bear in mind that it is also the summer, market participation.\r\n\r\nFrom my own trading perspective with a vacation and house move well in the rear-view mirror over 600 pips were added to the PREMIUM SERVICE total for 2017 in the three days on closed trades.\r\n\r\nI will always tell it how it is. Trying to focus on trading when in the middle of a house move and then setting up in a house plus a vacation around the same time, is practically impossible and I count myself as well disciplined.\r\n\r\nI am now settled into my new environment and the fruits of this are starting to come through in my set up and trades undertaken. I have never doubted my abilities to generate $$$ and pips and I am now fully engaged in playing catch up to meet my 10,000-pip objective for 2017. It is a tall order given the start to 2017, but I am 100% focused on the requirements ahead.\r\n\r\nAs I wrote to PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers last week, I trade for the long haul and I will NOT take on trades just for the sake of trades. Whilst I have an ambitious target to meet, I will not sacrifice my TRADING DISCIPLINES outlined in my TRADE PLAN. These I hold dear as they provide longevity in trading which is paramount to trading success in my opinion.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> LAST WEEK – MY TAKE ON SOME KEY EVENTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nDespite a shortened week from my perspective there were still a few takeaways of note.\r\n\r\nIn no particular order, here is what floated my boat last week.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>AUD (RBA):Philip Lowe delivered a very interesting statement, which to some extent caught some of the market off guard.From the prior week’s “Rock Star” adulation that followed Draghi, Poloz and Carney after they all turned hawkish, I think many pundits expected the same from Philip Lowe.The RBA remained neutral and the AUD weakened across the board. The takeaways that stood out for me were: -\r\n\r\nPolicy is consistent with: -\r\n\r\nGrowth and inflation targets\r\nIndicators of Labour Demand remain mixed.\r\nEmployment Growth has been stronger over recent months.\r\nSigns that the housing market is starting to cool.\r\nHousing Debt has outpaced the slow growth in incomes.\r\nA rising AUD$ would complicate the economic adjustment.\r\n\r\nBasically, it was a do not “Rock the Boat” approach.\r\n\r\nAustralian exports are not going to argue with the approach as the appreciating AUD$ is a pain.</li>\r\n 	<li>GBP (PMi, Industrial and Manufacturing Output data plus Mark Carney):All three PMi figures were misses on consensus expectations (Manufacturing (54.3), Construction (54.8) and Services (53.4)).Now, I am not shouting from the rooftops saying that the UK economy is about to fall off a cliff, but I am so damn close to doing so. It was a crap week for UK economic data.The PMI data was all well above the “50 level” but maybe now just over a year after the referendum vote was taken, the concerns are starting to creep in.\r\n\r\nThe Industrial (0.1% versus 0.4% expected) and Manufacturing (0.2% versus 0.5% expected) data released on Friday last week were just poor. Whilst they are by no means top tier data releases the simple fact is so much UK data is poor it should have an impact. (It’s had an impact on my thoughts!).</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">After the BREXIT vote in June 2016 the UK economy looked positive in fact quite resilient but 2017 is the opposite. The BREXIT uncertainty has come through in most aspects of the economy.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">I realise that the recent MPC vote was 5-3 and not 7-1 as expected. Carney was dovish in his Mansion House breakfast speech and then a week later in Sintra, Portugal he was hawkish vis-à-vis the BOE need to look at interest rates rising soon…. really.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">When is soon?  For me it’s anything from a week or so to a few months. For my boy Labrador, Ozzy, soon equals now, in fact in his language it means yesterday!</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">I just don’t get Carney. His forward guidance pre-BREXIT was shite to put it mildly and frankly he just digs huge holes for himself to fall into. He will probably flip-flop again against the backdrop of this week’s data.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">I am looking at pressure on wages, household spending, retail sales, consumer confidence and housing in the UK as well as last week’s data and I am NOT getting a warm fuzzy feeling at all. Carney’s flip-flopping made feck all sense to me. It looked like a childish “TRUMPLIKE” action because at the ECB Economic Forum both Draghi (ECB) and Poloz (BOC) were both very hawkish about the future.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">I just cannot see the BOE raising rates this year and probably not well into 2018. There are just too many BREXIT uncertainties combined with poor economic data. Never mind Haldane’s economists view on inflation.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">I think that it is quite simple. There is just too much to risk with BREXIT.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">Was it David Bloom (Global Head FX Strategy) HSBC who predicted cable back at 1.2000 and EUR/GBP at parity a few weeks ago?</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">Hmmn… good calls maybe!</p>\r\n\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>USD (FOMC Meeting Minutes, PMi data, ADP and NFP):Indecision… indecision.Personally in my opinion it’s obvious that the FED cannot agree on peripheral policy moving forward.Balance sheet tapering is the new buzz phrase now.\r\n\r\nFrankly, I believe the FED are going to continue moving forward relentlessly in their normalization policy to ensure that they have tools in the box to use as we head into another global worldwide recession. With this move in play who gives a f**k about Balance Sheet tapering.\r\n\r\nThe TRUMP administration has been bogged down by a dysfunctional party line divided Washington D.C. not helped by the fact that TRUMP himself continues to score own goals with his twitter feed in the name of keeping his core support informed.\r\n\r\nThe “ART OF THE DEAL” has been beaten by career politicians who couldn’t give a shit. The draining of the swamp was not as straightforward as he thought and he has been largely ineffective. The Washington machine has won but at what cost?\r\n\r\nPMi data was good last week with consensus levels being beaten with both Manufacturing (57.8) and Non-Manufacturing (57.4) data. This shows life in the economy. However, Autos, Housing, Retail Sales and Confidence drives the “Ultimate Consumer society” and these are very mixed to say the least.\r\n\r\nADP employment was a miss 158k versus 185k expected.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">NFP data was 222k versus 179k expected, once again the ADP and NFP numbers show no consistency and leading up to NFP U.S. data was NOT supportive of a beat! It was the average Hourly Rate that caused concern for the markets as the data was released. It remained at a constant 0.2%, the markets were expecting growth to 0.3%.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">The market reaction was in my own opinion very minimal to the data. Without doubt the “hourlies” stunted the market reaction.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">I find it very hard with U.S. labour statistics as they are always being revised. They should buy a computer like mine and get a guy in from “O and M” to sort out a reporting system that works properly the first time. It is just a bloody nonsense that these numbers are never accurate. Here’s an idea… report the data in week two of the month rather than week one!! Try to give yourselves some credibility.</p>\r\n\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>BREXIT:The negotiations have started in Brussels. Nothing much at all is being leaked. This surprises me, or maybe they are still agreeing on what pens to use on what size of paper?</li>\r\n 	<li>BOJ (Kuroda and Central Bank comments on Bond Purchases):Bucking the trend of other high profile Central Bank governors, the BOJ re-asserted its commitment at all costs to continue with its BOND purchasing program. The BOJ remains DOVISH.</li>\r\n 	<li>OIL:The helter-skelter price action continues. First bearish, then bullish and into the close of last week reversing the bullish move to move bearish once again.All this with a backdrop of conflict, mis-trust and tension in the middle east.\r\nSaudi Arabia – Qatar, Saudi Arabia – Iran, Saudi Arabia – Yemen and Egypt – Libya.Even myself; the most bearish OIL person on the planet, because of simple supply and demand economic theory, would concede that maybe a spike higher given the tension could be argued in favour of price action towards $55-$60 a barrel.\r\n\r\nWhat a strange world we live in.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU – LIVE WEBINAR:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nThere is a summer break with my LIVE WEBINARS they will return in the fall / autumn.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ECON-DATA-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9665\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ECON-DATA-09072017-1024x998.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"998\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>MY THOUGHTS ON THE ECONOMIC DATA EVENTS THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>BOC: This is the pick of the week for me based upon the recent hawkish sentiment change from Stephen Poloz (Governor BOC).The big question is of course, is he ready to sanction a rate increase this week?Analysts believe so, and a 0.25% increase to 0.75% has been predicted.Can you imagine what would happen to the CAD pairs should he not raise rates? Since his deputy announced a couple of weeks ago that the dovish approach could be ending, the USD/CAD has fallen from 1.3600 to sub 1.3000.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">If the rate hike happens, is there more left to fall? Dead right there is; I think that 1.2760 is an obvious target.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">However, should he not hike now, what would happen?</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">In my opinion I think we could see a fast retrace to around 1.3250, but this could be tempered by the accompanying commentary and again with the press conference 75 minutes later.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">I think that the ramifications of not raising rates would be incredible and although I am not positioned short USD/CAD etc. at the moment, I hope to have positions in profit with stop losses at break-even just in case… you just never know.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">Many Central Bank governors appear to suffer from “premature verbage”. It is quite a targeted disease.</p>\r\n\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li>JANET YELLEN – Semi-annual Monetary Policy Report:I hate writing this but we are back on a “will she / won’t she” raise rates again this year news cycle.Just a word of caution her prepared speech is released to the markets 90 minutes prior to her taking her seat to deliver it and then ask questions.</li>\r\n 	<li>USD (Producer and Consumer prices / Retail Sales):Thursday’s and Friday’s data will be interesting to follow.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">These will be crucial to the markets re the hike or no further hike scenarios, however I feel the FED is raising regardless one more time this year, probably in December.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">Time will tell.</p>\r\n<u>USD MAJORS – SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS TO NOTE THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/TCHART-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9666\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/TCHART-09072017-1024x855.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"855\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n\r\n<strong>EUR/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/EURUSD-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9675\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/EURUSD-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>GBP/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/GBPUSD-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9676\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/GBPUSD-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>AUD/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/AUDUSD-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9674\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/AUDUSD-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>NZD/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/NZDUSD-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9677\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/NZDUSD-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CAD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCAD-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9678\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCAD-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CHF:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCHF-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9679\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCHF-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/JPY:</strong>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDJPY-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9680\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDJPY-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE?</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber based Forex support service offering not just trade set-ups, but a bunch of different support services that differentiates the PREMIUM SERVICE from other providers, my competitors, that operate in the same space.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\nSo; if nothing else, I tell it how it is. I am currently about 50% of my target for this time of the year. I had a poor start to the year and I am now following a vacation and house move in recovery mode.\r\n\r\nIn 2014, 2015 and 2016 I beat my 10,000 pip per annum objective. There is nothing stopping me doing the same this year as my house move and vacation are both behind me. I will be trading pretty much full time from now on through to the end of 2017.\r\n\r\nIf you want to be a part of what I hope will be a storming end to 2017, login at my website and get subscribed. I mean business from here on in.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nMONTH TO DATE:  +675 pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE:      +3,080 pips\r\n\r\nIf you would like to know a little more about THE PREMIUM SERVICE please feel free to watch the following 40-minute video via the link below:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://bit.ly/PremServiceQ217\">http://bit.ly/PremServiceQ217</a>\r\n\r\nPLEASE NOTE: the above video is best viewed using a Google Chrome browser.\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><strong>WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION?</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIf you would like to be in the monthly draw to win a “FREE 10-WEEK SUBSCRIPTION” to the PREMIUM SERVICE, valued at CAD$500.00, all you should do is subscribe to receive this FREE NEWSLETTER on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nThis can be done as follows: -\r\n\r\nOn my welcome page just below my cube logo is where you complete your subscription.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"7\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:\r\n</strong>(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"8\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE SOAPBOX:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>\r\nARE WE APPROACHING THE TIPPING POINT?</strong>\r\n\r\nSince returning from vacation in New Zealand and Australia, my SOAPBOX titles have been: -\r\n\r\nARE THE GAME KEEPERS NOW POACHERS?\r\nGBP – IS IT A LONG OR SHORT TRADE?\r\nIS THE CENTRAL BANK DIVERGENCE TRADE FINALLY IN PLAY?\r\n\r\nAll three items have generated a lot of likes and a few comments as usual, most nice but a few not so nice.\r\n\r\nNow; either I have lost the plot, which could be the case, or economically things are really motoring along and policies are changing so fast that unease is being created in the marketplace?\r\n\r\nAlmost as soon as I wrote about “The Divergence trade” Draghi, Poloz and Carney all came out HAWKISH.\r\n\r\nI analyzed the cable and its cross-rates and within a week or so we have Carney “flip-flop”.\r\n\r\nFinally, the Central banks except BOC, walked back hawkish comments in the aftermath of the reaction to the change in sentiment. This shows to me the dilemma the central banks are in on the basis that they want to alert the markets of potential policy changes in the pipeline, but do not want the currency fluctuations that go with any announcement, which I can understand.\r\n\r\nNow I am not raising the issue that as soon as I write in the DRIVE THRU the market sentiment reverses because I have raised an issue. I am writing stating that as a FUNDAMENTAL trader the fundamentals that I am working with are now changing, and that, I believe we are approaching the TIPPING POINT for sentiment / momentum / central bank policy and reactions to economic data shifting. These items alone won’t bring us over the edge but in conjunction with a major geopolitical event… dare I even say it BLACK SWAN event.\r\n\r\nJust based on recent factors we have noticed attitudes and reactions are changing. In the past, we would have seen big moves on geopolitical events now the markets are largely muted. This is complacency in my opinion. Trying to place my thoughts logically for this section was a bit challenging, I hope you can follow without too many re-reads.\r\n\r\nLet me elaborate a bit, bear with me: -\r\n\r\nThere are many examples of this primarily with the BOE through the “flip flopper” and the ECB through Mario Draghi and his hangers on (Wiedmann and Nowotny) over a potential taper tantrum and interest rate policy in the medium–term amongst other issues.\r\n\r\nHowever, I prefer to use Janet Yellen and the FED/FOMC as my example, otherwise I will have pages and pages of stuff.\r\n\r\nGo back in time to Ben Bernanke, then add on Yellen’s tenure up to the TRUMP presidential victory in 2016. I think that it would be safe to say that the FED telegraphed every move to the markets… absolutely no surprises. Every piece of data was analyzed and reviewed over and over vis-à-vis context and the impact on the market was scrutinized left, right and centre.\r\n\r\nWith Janet Yellen this policy of total transparency continued up to the FED press conference in December 2016.\r\n\r\nBased upon the backdrop of a Pseudo republican victory via “THE DONALD” it all changed.\r\n\r\nThe markets got bulled up about tax cuts, infrastructure spending, less controls on medical costs as it was a policy to repeal Obamacare (The Affordable Care Act). Regulation on Wall Street would be reduced and monies owned by multi-national US companies lodged outside of the US would be repatriated back under a tax incentive scheme. Companies would be encouraged through lower taxation to retain a U.S. presence instead of moving outside of the U.S. because of high local taxes and cheaper labour costs elsewhere.\r\n\r\nI think that I am correct in saying 6 months in and “THE DONALD” has achieved zero on that list.\r\n\r\nHowever, was the FED also bulled up and wanting to get ahead of the curve that it had been so many times criticized of being behind on?\r\n\r\nWithout doubt this year with a backdrop of very mixed, sometimes poor U.S. economic data the FED has marched on with rate increases regardless.\r\n\r\nIt is out of character for Janet Yellen, who frankly sounds DOVISH even when she is delivering HAWKISH sentiment.\r\n\r\nHas this complete change of policy by the FED lit a fire under other central banks?\r\n\r\nI think that The FED’s outright disregard for data dependency of late has created a sea change. However, notably, the BOJ under Kuroda has signaled that the support to the market through bond purchasing will continue. The backdrop to this very recent BOJ announcement was that Kuroda has no fresh ideas and should be replaced. The RBA under relatively new governor, Philip Lowe left policy neutral last week when many were calling for a more hawkish tone.\r\n\r\nIs it now a case of, the FED is changing policy regardless of data so we should all change?\r\n\r\nI would have thought most central banks could get away with a lag in timing hence my piece about CENTRAL BANK DIVERGENCE four weeks ago. After all the divergence for as long as possible should help home exporters and dis-advantage the U.S. exporters at the same time. A little bit of that can’t be bad… I would have thought.\r\n\r\nLooking at the macro level it looks like a sea change is in effect and we are about to change fundamentally.\r\n\r\nWhilst I talk in the present… the now; do not forget we are still dealing with culture and a central bank’s monetary policies are slow to turn around, we are in 2017 there will be communications and a gentle feed into any changes. The wham-bam-thank-you-mam approach of especially Mario Draghi will be re-thought and a more leisurely delivery in bite sized chunks will be adopted, I am certain of this.\r\n\r\nSo; how does it translate into forex trading?\r\n\r\nFX is noted as being a future pricing instrument. As we know, the markets react, then re-think and correct if required.\r\n\r\nThe FED with its present approach in normal circumstances from my perspective tell you that the USD will strengthen and challenge 100.00 once again with US $ index (DXY). In fact, the USD cannot get out of its own way… why?\r\n\r\nThe single currency was hit so hard but is so resilient it never hit parity, never mind sub parity as some banks were calling. Economically the EUROZONE was so poor (it still is in some countries) it was beaten up so bad, it has the greatest opportunity given the TRUMP administration ineffectiveness to bounce back. In 2017, the markets decided that at some stage the ECB will turn hawkish so the single currency has been generally supported at the expense of the DXY moving back to 100.00 once again.\r\n\r\nThe result of all this putting the shenanigans to one side is wide trading ranges. If you look across most currency pairs especially with the USD majors we are in trading ranges: -\r\n\r\nEUR/USD: 1.1200 – 1.1450\r\nGBP/USD: 1.2600 – 1.3050\r\nAUD/USD: 0.7300 – 0.7750\r\nNZD/USD: 0.6820 - 0.7350\r\nUSD/CHF: 0.9550 – 1.0150\r\nUSD/JPY: 108.00 – 114.50\r\n\r\nThese ranges can be described as large ranges but you can also mark off mini-ranges within these levels that contain the price action. I know, we are in the summer doldrums of trading and ranges within ranges are commonplace. I agree with this but there’s more going on in the peripheral and reactions to potential disturbing geopolitical events are muted to say the least.\r\n\r\nTherefore, what I see is that the TIPPING POINT will be a bit of a domino event triggered by a geopolitical event, the bigger than normal central bank policy decision, or, a governmental policy decision that shakes the market so much that even these broad trading ranges noted above are broken with the result being a major shift in policy both for governments and central banks. This creates a market panic.\r\n\r\nSo let me drill this thought down a little more. Triggers starting this domino effect could be such as the following: -\r\n\r\nNORTH KOREA nuclear flexing.\r\nMIDDLE EASTERN tensions over spilling into OIL supplies grinding to a halt.\r\nA NEW WORLD ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN leading to recession.\r\n\r\nI am sure you can think of a few more items for the list, but I hope you get my point. There is so much uncertainty and lack of clarity dotted about, I believe we are prime for a big move.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"9\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #244 FREE NEWSLETTER VERSION\r\nDATE: 9th July 2017.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','ARE WE APPROACHING THE TIPPING POINT?','','publish','open','closed','','approaching-tipping-point','','','2017-07-08 11:35:03','2017-07-08 16:35:03','',0,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?p=9684',0,'post','',0),(9685,1,'2017-07-08 11:15:40','2017-07-08 16:15:40','&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nAfter the week before last week with its non-stop fun (my ex. work buddies would now be on the floor pissing themselves laughing at that opening remark), we had a rather more sedated look to the markets the week just gone. It was a holiday week in both Canada and the US, with the Independence Day holiday in many cases being extended by an extra day’s holiday being taken to make it a very long weekend for some traders. Thus, it was really a three-day week for near normal, bear in mind that it is also the summer, market participation.\r\n\r\nFrom my own trading perspective with a vacation and house move well in the rear-view mirror over 600 pips were added to the PREMIUM SERVICE total for 2017 in the three days on closed trades.\r\n\r\nI will always tell it how it is. Trying to focus on trading when in the middle of a house move and then setting up in a house plus a vacation around the same time, is practically impossible and I count myself as well disciplined.\r\n\r\nI am now settled into my new environment and the fruits of this are starting to come through in my set up and trades undertaken. I have never doubted my abilities to generate $$$ and pips and I am now fully engaged in playing catch up to meet my 10,000-pip objective for 2017. It is a tall order given the start to 2017, but I am 100% focused on the requirements ahead.\r\n\r\nAs I wrote to PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers last week, I trade for the long haul and I will NOT take on trades just for the sake of trades. Whilst I have an ambitious target to meet, I will not sacrifice my TRADING DISCIPLINES outlined in my TRADE PLAN. These I hold dear as they provide longevity in trading which is paramount to trading success in my opinion.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> LAST WEEK – MY TAKE ON SOME KEY EVENTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nDespite a shortened week from my perspective there were still a few takeaways of note.\r\n\r\nIn no particular order, here is what floated my boat last week.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>AUD (RBA):\r\n\r\nPhilip Lowe delivered a very interesting statement, which to some extent caught some of the market off guard.\r\n\r\nFrom the prior week’s “Rock Star” adulation that followed Draghi, Poloz and Carney after they all turned hawkish, I think many pundits expected the same from Philip Lowe.\r\n\r\nThe RBA remained neutral and the AUD weakened across the board. The takeaways that stood out for me were: -\r\n\r\nPolicy is consistent with: -\r\n\r\nGrowth and inflation targets\r\nIndicators of Labour Demand remain mixed.\r\nEmployment Growth has been stronger over recent months.\r\nSigns that the housing market is starting to cool.\r\nHousing Debt has outpaced the slow growth in incomes.\r\nA rising AUD$ would complicate the economic adjustment.\r\n\r\nBasically, it was a do not “Rock the Boat” approach.\r\n\r\nAustralian exports are not going to argue with the approach as the appreciating AUD$ is a pain.</li>\r\n 	<li>GBP (PMi, Industrial and Manufacturing Output data plus Mark Carney):\r\n\r\nAll three PMi figures were misses on consensus expectations (Manufacturing (54.3), Construction (54.8) and Services (53.4)).\r\n\r\nNow, I am not shouting from the rooftops saying that the UK economy is about to fall off a cliff, but I am so damn close to doing so. It was a crap week for UK economic data.\r\n\r\nThe PMI data was all well above the “50 level” but maybe now just over a year after the referendum vote was taken, the concerns are starting to creep in.\r\n\r\nThe Industrial (0.1% versus 0.4% expected) and Manufacturing (0.2% versus 0.5% expected) data released on Friday last week were just poor. Whilst they are by no means top tier data releases the simple fact is so much UK data is poor it should have an impact. (It’s had an impact on my thoughts!).</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">\r\nAfter the BREXIT vote in June 2016 the UK economy looked positive in fact quite resilient but 2017 is the opposite. The BREXIT uncertainty has come through in most aspects of the economy.\r\n\r\nI realise that the recent MPC vote was 5-3 and not 7-1 as expected. Carney was dovish in his Mansion House breakfast speech and then a week later in Sintra, Portugal he was hawkish vis-à-vis the BOE need to look at interest rates rising soon…. really.\r\n\r\nWhen is soon?  For me it’s anything from a week or so to a few months. For my boy Labrador, Ozzy, soon equals now, in fact in his language it means yesterday!\r\n\r\nI just don’t get Carney. His forward guidance pre-BREXIT was shite to put it mildly and frankly he just digs huge holes for himself to fall into. He will probably flip-flop again against the backdrop of this week’s data.\r\n\r\nI am looking at pressure on wages, household spending, retail sales, consumer confidence and housing in the UK as well as last week’s data and I am NOT getting a warm fuzzy feeling at all. Carney’s flip-flopping made feck all sense to me. It looked like a childish “TRUMPLIKE” action because at the ECB Economic Forum both Draghi (ECB) and Poloz (BOC) were both very hawkish about the future.\r\n\r\nI just cannot see the BOE raising rates this year and probably not well into 2018. There are just too many BREXIT uncertainties combined with poor economic data. Never mind Haldane’s economists view on inflation.\r\n\r\nI think that it is quite simple. There is just too much to risk with BREXIT.\r\n\r\nWas it David Bloom (Global Head FX Strategy) HSBC who predicted cable back at 1.2000 and EUR/GBP at parity a few weeks ago?\r\n\r\nHmmn… good calls maybe!\r\n\r\n</p>\r\n\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>USD (FOMC Meeting Minutes, PMi data, ADP and NFP):\r\n\r\nIndecision… indecision.\r\n\r\nPersonally in my opinion it’s obvious that the FED cannot agree on peripheral policy moving forward.\r\n\r\nBalance sheet tapering is the new buzz phrase now.\r\n\r\nFrankly, I believe the FED are going to continue moving forward relentlessly in their normalization policy to ensure that they have tools in the box to use as we head into another global worldwide recession. With this move in play who gives a f**k about Balance Sheet tapering.\r\n\r\nThe TRUMP administration has been bogged down by a dysfunctional party line divided Washington D.C. not helped by the fact that TRUMP himself continues to score own goals with his twitter feed in the name of keeping his core support informed.\r\n\r\nThe “ART OF THE DEAL” has been beaten by career politicians who couldn’t give a shit. The draining of the swamp was not as straightforward as he thought and he has been largely ineffective. The Washington machine has won but at what cost?\r\n\r\nPMi data was good last week with consensus levels being beaten with both Manufacturing (57.8) and Non-Manufacturing (57.4) data. This shows life in the economy. However, Autos, Housing, Retail Sales and Confidence drives the “Ultimate Consumer society” and these are very mixed to say the least.\r\n\r\nADP employment was a miss 158k versus 185k expected.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">\r\nNFP data was 222k versus 179k expected, once again the ADP and NFP numbers show no consistency and leading up to NFP U.S. data was NOT supportive of a beat! It was the average Hourly Rate that caused concern for the markets as the data was released. It remained at a constant 0.2%, the markets were expecting growth to 0.3%.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\"></p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">The market reaction was in my own opinion very minimal to the data. Without doubt the “hourlies” stunted the market reaction.\r\n\r\nI find it very hard with U.S. labour statistics as they are always being revised. They should buy a computer like mine and get a guy in from “O and M” to sort out a reporting system that works properly the first time. It is just a bloody nonsense that these numbers are never accurate. Here’s an idea… report the data in week two of the month rather than week one!! Try to give yourselves some credibility.\r\n\r\n</p>\r\n\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>BREXIT:\r\n\r\nThe negotiations have started in Brussels. Nothing much at all is being leaked. This surprises me, or maybe they are still agreeing on what pens to use on what size of paper?</li>\r\n 	<li>BOJ (Kuroda and Central Bank comments on Bond Purchases):\r\n\r\nBucking the trend of other high profile Central Bank governors, the BOJ re-asserted its commitment at all costs to continue with its BOND purchasing program. The BOJ remains DOVISH.</li>\r\n 	<li>OIL:\r\n\r\nThe helter-skelter price action continues. First bearish, then bullish and into the close of last week reversing the bullish move to move bearish once again.\r\n\r\nAll this with a backdrop of conflict, mis-trust and tension in the middle east.\r\nSaudi Arabia – Qatar, Saudi Arabia – Iran, Saudi Arabia – Yemen and Egypt – Libya.\r\n\r\nEven myself; the most bearish OIL person on the planet, because of simple supply and demand economic theory, would concede that maybe a spike higher given the tension could be argued in favour of price action towards $55-$60 a barrel.\r\n\r\nWhat a strange world we live in.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU – LIVE WEBINAR:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nThere is a summer break with my LIVE WEBINARS they will return in the fall / autumn.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ECON-DATA-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9665\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ECON-DATA-09072017-1024x998.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"998\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>MY THOUGHTS ON THE ECONOMIC DATA EVENTS THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>BOC: This is the pick of the week for me based upon the recent hawkish sentiment change from Stephen Poloz (Governor BOC).\r\n\r\nThe big question is of course, is he ready to sanction a rate increase this week?\r\n\r\nAnalysts believe so, and a 0.25% increase to 0.75% has been predicted.\r\n\r\nCan you imagine what would happen to the CAD pairs should he not raise rates? Since his deputy announced a couple of weeks ago that the dovish approach could be ending, the USD/CAD has fallen from 1.3600 to sub 1.3000.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">\r\nIf the rate hike happens, is there more left to fall? Dead right there is; I think that 1.2760 is an obvious target.\r\n\r\nHowever, should he not hike now, what would happen?\r\n\r\nIn my opinion I think we could see a fast retrace to around 1.3250, but this could be tempered by the accompanying commentary and again with the press conference 75 minutes later.\r\n\r\nI think that the ramifications of not raising rates would be incredible and although I am not positioned short USD/CAD etc. at the moment, I hope to have positions in profit with stop losses at break-even just in case… you just never know.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\"></p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">Many Central Bank governors appear to suffer from “premature verbage”. It is quite a targeted disease.\r\n\r\n</p>\r\n\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li>JANET YELLEN – Semi-annual Monetary Policy Report:\r\n\r\nI hate writing this but we are back on a “will she / won’t she” raise rates again this year news cycle.\r\n\r\nJust a word of caution her prepared speech is released to the markets 90 minutes prior to her taking her seat to deliver it and then ask questions.</li>\r\n 	<li>USD (Producer and Consumer prices / Retail Sales):\r\n\r\nThursday’s and Friday’s data will be interesting to follow.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">\r\nThese will be crucial to the markets re the hike or no further hike scenarios, however I feel the FED is raising regardless one more time this year, probably in December.\r\n\r\nTime will tell.\r\n</p>\r\n<u>USD MAJORS – SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS TO NOTE THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/TCHART-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9666\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/TCHART-09072017-1024x855.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"855\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n<strong>EUR/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/EURUSD-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9675\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/EURUSD-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>GBP/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/GBPUSD-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9676\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/GBPUSD-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>AUD/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/AUDUSD-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9674\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/AUDUSD-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>NZD/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/NZDUSD-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9677\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/NZDUSD-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CAD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCAD-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9678\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCAD-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CHF:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCHF-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9679\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCHF-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/JPY:</strong>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDJPY-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9680\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDJPY-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE?</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber based Forex support service offering not just trade set-ups, but a bunch of different support services that differentiates the PREMIUM SERVICE from other providers, my competitors, that operate in the same space.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\nSo; if nothing else, I tell it how it is. I am currently about 50% of my target for this time of the year. I had a poor start to the year and I am now following a vacation and house move in recovery mode.\r\n\r\nIn 2014, 2015 and 2016 I beat my 10,000 pip per annum objective. There is nothing stopping me doing the same this year as my house move and vacation are both behind me. I will be trading pretty much full time from now on through to the end of 2017.\r\n\r\nIf you want to be a part of what I hope will be a storming end to 2017, login at my website and get subscribed. I mean business from here on in.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nMONTH TO DATE:  +675 pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE:      +3,080 pips\r\n\r\nIf you would like to know a little more about THE PREMIUM SERVICE please feel free to watch the following 40-minute video via the link below:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://bit.ly/PremServiceQ217\">http://bit.ly/PremServiceQ217</a>\r\n\r\nPLEASE NOTE: the above video is best viewed using a Google Chrome browser.\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><strong>WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION?</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIf you would like to be in the monthly draw to win a “FREE 10-WEEK SUBSCRIPTION” to the PREMIUM SERVICE, valued at CAD$500.00, all you should do is subscribe to receive this FREE NEWSLETTER on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nThis can be done as follows: -\r\n\r\nOn my welcome page just below my cube logo is where you complete your subscription.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"7\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:\r\n</strong>(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"8\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE SOAPBOX:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>\r\nARE WE APPROACHING THE TIPPING POINT?</strong>\r\n\r\nSince returning from vacation in New Zealand and Australia, my SOAPBOX titles have been: -\r\n\r\nARE THE GAME KEEPERS NOW POACHERS?\r\nGBP – IS IT A LONG OR SHORT TRADE?\r\nIS THE CENTRAL BANK DIVERGENCE TRADE FINALLY IN PLAY?\r\n\r\nAll three items have generated a lot of likes and a few comments as usual, most nice but a few not so nice.\r\n\r\nNow; either I have lost the plot, which could be the case, or economically things are really motoring along and policies are changing so fast that unease is being created in the marketplace?\r\n\r\nAlmost as soon as I wrote about “The Divergence trade” Draghi, Poloz and Carney all came out HAWKISH.\r\n\r\nI analyzed the cable and its cross-rates and within a week or so we have Carney “flip-flop”.\r\n\r\nFinally, the Central banks except BOC, walked back hawkish comments in the aftermath of the reaction to the change in sentiment. This shows to me the dilemma the central banks are in on the basis that they want to alert the markets of potential policy changes in the pipeline, but do not want the currency fluctuations that go with any announcement, which I can understand.\r\n\r\nNow I am not raising the issue that as soon as I write in the DRIVE THRU the market sentiment reverses because I have raised an issue. I am writing stating that as a FUNDAMENTAL trader the fundamentals that I am working with are now changing, and that, I believe we are approaching the TIPPING POINT for sentiment / momentum / central bank policy and reactions to economic data shifting. These items alone won’t bring us over the edge but in conjunction with a major geopolitical event… dare I even say it BLACK SWAN event.\r\n\r\nJust based on recent factors we have noticed attitudes and reactions are changing. In the past, we would have seen big moves on geopolitical events now the markets are largely muted. This is complacency in my opinion. Trying to place my thoughts logically for this section was a bit challenging, I hope you can follow without too many re-reads.\r\n\r\nLet me elaborate a bit, bear with me: -\r\n\r\nThere are many examples of this primarily with the BOE through the “flip flopper” and the ECB through Mario Draghi and his hangers on (Wiedmann and Nowotny) over a potential taper tantrum and interest rate policy in the medium–term amongst other issues.\r\n\r\nHowever, I prefer to use Janet Yellen and the FED/FOMC as my example, otherwise I will have pages and pages of stuff.\r\n\r\nGo back in time to Ben Bernanke, then add on Yellen’s tenure up to the TRUMP presidential victory in 2016. I think that it would be safe to say that the FED telegraphed every move to the markets… absolutely no surprises. Every piece of data was analyzed and reviewed over and over vis-à-vis context and the impact on the market was scrutinized left, right and centre.\r\n\r\nWith Janet Yellen this policy of total transparency continued up to the FED press conference in December 2016.\r\n\r\nBased upon the backdrop of a Pseudo republican victory via “THE DONALD” it all changed.\r\n\r\nThe markets got bulled up about tax cuts, infrastructure spending, less controls on medical costs as it was a policy to repeal Obamacare (The Affordable Care Act). Regulation on Wall Street would be reduced and monies owned by multi-national US companies lodged outside of the US would be repatriated back under a tax incentive scheme. Companies would be encouraged through lower taxation to retain a U.S. presence instead of moving outside of the U.S. because of high local taxes and cheaper labour costs elsewhere.\r\n\r\nI think that I am correct in saying 6 months in and “THE DONALD” has achieved zero on that list.\r\n\r\nHowever, was the FED also bulled up and wanting to get ahead of the curve that it had been so many times criticized of being behind on?\r\n\r\nWithout doubt this year with a backdrop of very mixed, sometimes poor U.S. economic data the FED has marched on with rate increases regardless.\r\n\r\nIt is out of character for Janet Yellen, who frankly sounds DOVISH even when she is delivering HAWKISH sentiment.\r\n\r\nHas this complete change of policy by the FED lit a fire under other central banks?\r\n\r\nI think that The FED’s outright disregard for data dependency of late has created a sea change. However, notably, the BOJ under Kuroda has signaled that the support to the market through bond purchasing will continue. The backdrop to this very recent BOJ announcement was that Kuroda has no fresh ideas and should be replaced. The RBA under relatively new governor, Philip Lowe left policy neutral last week when many were calling for a more hawkish tone.\r\n\r\nIs it now a case of, the FED is changing policy regardless of data so we should all change?\r\n\r\nI would have thought most central banks could get away with a lag in timing hence my piece about CENTRAL BANK DIVERGENCE four weeks ago. After all the divergence for as long as possible should help home exporters and dis-advantage the U.S. exporters at the same time. A little bit of that can’t be bad… I would have thought.\r\n\r\nLooking at the macro level it looks like a sea change is in effect and we are about to change fundamentally.\r\n\r\nWhilst I talk in the present… the now; do not forget we are still dealing with culture and a central bank’s monetary policies are slow to turn around, we are in 2017 there will be communications and a gentle feed into any changes. The wham-bam-thank-you-mam approach of especially Mario Draghi will be re-thought and a more leisurely delivery in bite sized chunks will be adopted, I am certain of this.\r\n\r\nSo; how does it translate into forex trading?\r\n\r\nFX is noted as being a future pricing instrument. As we know, the markets react, then re-think and correct if required.\r\n\r\nThe FED with its present approach in normal circumstances from my perspective tell you that the USD will strengthen and challenge 100.00 once again with US $ index (DXY). In fact, the USD cannot get out of its own way… why?\r\n\r\nThe single currency was hit so hard but is so resilient it never hit parity, never mind sub parity as some banks were calling. Economically the EUROZONE was so poor (it still is in some countries) it was beaten up so bad, it has the greatest opportunity given the TRUMP administration ineffectiveness to bounce back. In 2017, the markets decided that at some stage the ECB will turn hawkish so the single currency has been generally supported at the expense of the DXY moving back to 100.00 once again.\r\n\r\nThe result of all this putting the shenanigans to one side is wide trading ranges. If you look across most currency pairs especially with the USD majors we are in trading ranges: -\r\n\r\nEUR/USD: 1.1200 – 1.1450\r\nGBP/USD: 1.2600 – 1.3050\r\nAUD/USD: 0.7300 – 0.7750\r\nNZD/USD: 0.6820 - 0.7350\r\nUSD/CHF: 0.9550 – 1.0150\r\nUSD/JPY: 108.00 – 114.50\r\n\r\nThese ranges can be described as large ranges but you can also mark off mini-ranges within these levels that contain the price action. I know, we are in the summer doldrums of trading and ranges within ranges are commonplace. I agree with this but there’s more going on in the peripheral and reactions to potential disturbing geopolitical events are muted to say the least.\r\n\r\nTherefore, what I see is that the TIPPING POINT will be a bit of a domino event triggered by a geopolitical event, the bigger than normal central bank policy decision, or, a governmental policy decision that shakes the market so much that even these broad trading ranges noted above are broken with the result being a major shift in policy both for governments and central banks. This creates a market panic.\r\n\r\nSo let me drill this thought down a little more. Triggers starting this domino effect could be such as the following: -\r\n\r\nNORTH KOREA nuclear flexing.\r\nMIDDLE EASTERN tensions over spilling into OIL supplies grinding to a halt.\r\nA NEW WORLD ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN leading to recession.\r\n\r\nI am sure you can think of a few more items for the list, but I hope you get my point. There is so much uncertainty and lack of clarity dotted about, I believe we are prime for a big move.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"9\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #244 FREE NEWSLETTER VERSION\r\nDATE: 9th July 2017.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','ARE WE APPROACHING THE TIPPING POINT?','','inherit','closed','closed','','9684-revision-v1','','','2017-07-08 11:15:40','2017-07-08 16:15:40','',9684,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/9684-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(9686,1,'2017-07-08 11:17:09','2017-07-08 16:17:09','&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nAfter the week before last week with its non-stop fun (my ex. work buddies would now be on the floor pissing themselves laughing at that opening remark), we had a rather more sedated look to the markets the week just gone. It was a holiday week in both Canada and the US, with the Independence Day holiday in many cases being extended by an extra day’s holiday being taken to make it a very long weekend for some traders. Thus, it was really a three-day week for near normal, bear in mind that it is also the summer, market participation.\r\n\r\nFrom my own trading perspective with a vacation and house move well in the rear-view mirror over 600 pips were added to the PREMIUM SERVICE total for 2017 in the three days on closed trades.\r\n\r\nI will always tell it how it is. Trying to focus on trading when in the middle of a house move and then setting up in a house plus a vacation around the same time, is practically impossible and I count myself as well disciplined.\r\n\r\nI am now settled into my new environment and the fruits of this are starting to come through in my set up and trades undertaken. I have never doubted my abilities to generate $$$ and pips and I am now fully engaged in playing catch up to meet my 10,000-pip objective for 2017. It is a tall order given the start to 2017, but I am 100% focused on the requirements ahead.\r\n\r\nAs I wrote to PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers last week, I trade for the long haul and I will NOT take on trades just for the sake of trades. Whilst I have an ambitious target to meet, I will not sacrifice my TRADING DISCIPLINES outlined in my TRADE PLAN. These I hold dear as they provide longevity in trading which is paramount to trading success in my opinion.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> LAST WEEK – MY TAKE ON SOME KEY EVENTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nDespite a shortened week from my perspective there were still a few takeaways of note.\r\n\r\nIn no particular order, here is what floated my boat last week.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>AUD (RBA):Philip Lowe delivered a very interesting statement, which to some extent caught some of the market off guard.\r\n\r\nFrom the prior week’s “Rock Star” adulation that followed Draghi, Poloz and Carney after they all turned hawkish, I think many pundits expected the same from Philip Lowe.\r\n\r\nThe RBA remained neutral and the AUD weakened across the board. The takeaways that stood out for me were: -\r\n\r\nPolicy is consistent with: -\r\n\r\nGrowth and inflation targets\r\nIndicators of Labour Demand remain mixed.\r\nEmployment Growth has been stronger over recent months.\r\nSigns that the housing market is starting to cool.\r\nHousing Debt has outpaced the slow growth in incomes.\r\nA rising AUD$ would complicate the economic adjustment.\r\n\r\nBasically, it was a do not “Rock the Boat” approach.\r\n\r\nAustralian exports are not going to argue with the approach as the appreciating AUD$ is a pain.</li>\r\n 	<li>GBP (PMi, Industrial and Manufacturing Output data plus Mark Carney):All three PMi figures were misses on consensus expectations (Manufacturing (54.3), Construction (54.8) and Services (53.4)).\r\n\r\nNow, I am not shouting from the rooftops saying that the UK economy is about to fall off a cliff, but I am so damn close to doing so. It was a crap week for UK economic data.\r\n\r\nThe PMI data was all well above the “50 level” but maybe now just over a year after the referendum vote was taken, the concerns are starting to creep in.\r\n\r\nThe Industrial (0.1% versus 0.4% expected) and Manufacturing (0.2% versus 0.5% expected) data released on Friday last week were just poor. Whilst they are by no means top tier data releases the simple fact is so much UK data is poor it should have an impact. (It’s had an impact on my thoughts!).</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">After the BREXIT vote in June 2016 the UK economy looked positive in fact quite resilient but 2017 is the opposite. The BREXIT uncertainty has come through in most aspects of the economy.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">I realise that the recent MPC vote was 5-3 and not 7-1 as expected. Carney was dovish in his Mansion House breakfast speech and then a week later in Sintra, Portugal he was hawkish vis-à-vis the BOE need to look at interest rates rising soon…. really.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">When is soon?  For me it’s anything from a week or so to a few months. For my boy Labrador, Ozzy, soon equals now, in fact in his language it means yesterday!</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">I just don’t get Carney. His forward guidance pre-BREXIT was shite to put it mildly and frankly he just digs huge holes for himself to fall into. He will probably flip-flop again against the backdrop of this week’s data.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">I am looking at pressure on wages, household spending, retail sales, consumer confidence and housing in the UK as well as last week’s data and I am NOT getting a warm fuzzy feeling at all. Carney’s flip-flopping made feck all sense to me. It looked like a childish “TRUMPLIKE” action because at the ECB Economic Forum both Draghi (ECB) and Poloz (BOC) were both very hawkish about the future.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">I just cannot see the BOE raising rates this year and probably not well into 2018. There are just too many BREXIT uncertainties combined with poor economic data. Never mind Haldane’s economists view on inflation.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">I think that it is quite simple. There is just too much to risk with BREXIT.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">Was it David Bloom (Global Head FX Strategy) HSBC who predicted cable back at 1.2000 and EUR/GBP at parity a few weeks ago?</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">Hmmn… good calls maybe!\r\n\r\n\r\n</p>\r\n\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>USD (FOMC Meeting Minutes, PMi data, ADP and NFP):Indecision… indecision.\r\n\r\nPersonally in my opinion it’s obvious that the FED cannot agree on peripheral policy moving forward.\r\n\r\nBalance sheet tapering is the new buzz phrase now.\r\n\r\nFrankly, I believe the FED are going to continue moving forward relentlessly in their normalization policy to ensure that they have tools in the box to use as we head into another global worldwide recession. With this move in play who gives a f**k about Balance Sheet tapering.\r\n\r\nThe TRUMP administration has been bogged down by a dysfunctional party line divided Washington D.C. not helped by the fact that TRUMP himself continues to score own goals with his twitter feed in the name of keeping his core support informed.\r\n\r\nThe “ART OF THE DEAL” has been beaten by career politicians who couldn’t give a shit. The draining of the swamp was not as straightforward as he thought and he has been largely ineffective. The Washington machine has won but at what cost?\r\n\r\nPMi data was good last week with consensus levels being beaten with both Manufacturing (57.8) and Non-Manufacturing (57.4) data. This shows life in the economy. However, Autos, Housing, Retail Sales and Confidence drives the “Ultimate Consumer society” and these are very mixed to say the least.\r\n\r\nADP employment was a miss 158k versus 185k expected.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">NFP data was 222k versus 179k expected, once again the ADP and NFP numbers show no consistency and leading up to NFP U.S. data was NOT supportive of a beat! It was the average Hourly Rate that caused concern for the markets as the data was released. It remained at a constant 0.2%, the markets were expecting growth to 0.3%.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">The market reaction was in my own opinion very minimal to the data. Without doubt the “hourlies” stunted the market reaction.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">I find it very hard with U.S. labour statistics as they are always being revised. They should buy a computer like mine and get a guy in from “O and M” to sort out a reporting system that works properly the first time. It is just a bloody nonsense that these numbers are never accurate. Here’s an idea… report the data in week two of the month rather than week one!! Try to give yourselves some credibility.\r\n\r\n</p>\r\n\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>BREXIT:The negotiations have started in Brussels. Nothing much at all is being leaked. This surprises me, or maybe they are still agreeing on what pens to use on what size of paper?</li>\r\n 	<li>BOJ (Kuroda and Central Bank comments on Bond Purchases):Bucking the trend of other high profile Central Bank governors, the BOJ re-asserted its commitment at all costs to continue with its BOND purchasing program. The BOJ remains DOVISH.</li>\r\n 	<li>OIL:The helter-skelter price action continues. First bearish, then bullish and into the close of last week reversing the bullish move to move bearish once again.\r\n\r\nAll this with a backdrop of conflict, mis-trust and tension in the middle east.\r\nSaudi Arabia – Qatar, Saudi Arabia – Iran, Saudi Arabia – Yemen and Egypt – Libya.\r\n\r\nEven myself; the most bearish OIL person on the planet, because of simple supply and demand economic theory, would concede that maybe a spike higher given the tension could be argued in favour of price action towards $55-$60 a barrel.\r\n\r\nWhat a strange world we live in.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU – LIVE WEBINAR:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nThere is a summer break with my LIVE WEBINARS they will return in the fall / autumn.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ECON-DATA-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9665\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ECON-DATA-09072017-1024x998.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"998\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>MY THOUGHTS ON THE ECONOMIC DATA EVENTS THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>BOC: This is the pick of the week for me based upon the recent hawkish sentiment change from Stephen Poloz (Governor BOC).The big question is of course, is he ready to sanction a rate increase this week?\r\n\r\nAnalysts believe so, and a 0.25% increase to 0.75% has been predicted.\r\n\r\nCan you imagine what would happen to the CAD pairs should he not raise rates? Since his deputy announced a couple of weeks ago that the dovish approach could be ending, the USD/CAD has fallen from 1.3600 to sub 1.3000.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">If the rate hike happens, is there more left to fall? Dead right there is; I think that 1.2760 is an obvious target.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">However, should he not hike now, what would happen?</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">In my opinion I think we could see a fast retrace to around 1.3250, but this could be tempered by the accompanying commentary and again with the press conference 75 minutes later.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">I think that the ramifications of not raising rates would be incredible and although I am not positioned short USD/CAD etc. at the moment, I hope to have positions in profit with stop losses at break-even just in case… you just never know.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">Many Central Bank governors appear to suffer from “premature verbage”. It is quite a targeted disease.</p>\r\n\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li>JANET YELLEN – Semi-annual Monetary Policy Report:I hate writing this but we are back on a “will she / won’t she” raise rates again this year news cycle.\r\n\r\nJust a word of caution her prepared speech is released to the markets 90 minutes prior to her taking her seat to deliver it and then ask questions.</li>\r\n 	<li>USD (Producer and Consumer prices / Retail Sales):Thursday’s and Friday’s data will be interesting to follow.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">These will be crucial to the markets re the hike or no further hike scenarios, however I feel the FED is raising regardless one more time this year, probably in December.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">Time will tell.\r\n\r\n</p>\r\n<u>USD MAJORS – SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS TO NOTE THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/TCHART-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9666\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/TCHART-09072017-1024x855.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"855\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n\r\n\r\n<strong>EUR/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/EURUSD-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9675\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/EURUSD-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>GBP/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/GBPUSD-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9676\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/GBPUSD-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>AUD/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/AUDUSD-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9674\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/AUDUSD-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>NZD/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/NZDUSD-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9677\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/NZDUSD-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CAD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCAD-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9678\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCAD-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CHF:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCHF-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9679\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCHF-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/JPY:</strong>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDJPY-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9680\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDJPY-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE?</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber based Forex support service offering not just trade set-ups, but a bunch of different support services that differentiates the PREMIUM SERVICE from other providers, my competitors, that operate in the same space.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\nSo; if nothing else, I tell it how it is. I am currently about 50% of my target for this time of the year. I had a poor start to the year and I am now following a vacation and house move in recovery mode.\r\n\r\nIn 2014, 2015 and 2016 I beat my 10,000 pip per annum objective. There is nothing stopping me doing the same this year as my house move and vacation are both behind me. I will be trading pretty much full time from now on through to the end of 2017.\r\n\r\nIf you want to be a part of what I hope will be a storming end to 2017, login at my website and get subscribed. I mean business from here on in.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nMONTH TO DATE:  +675 pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE:      +3,080 pips\r\n\r\nIf you would like to know a little more about THE PREMIUM SERVICE please feel free to watch the following 40-minute video via the link below:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://bit.ly/PremServiceQ217\">http://bit.ly/PremServiceQ217</a>\r\n\r\nPLEASE NOTE: the above video is best viewed using a Google Chrome browser.\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><strong>WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION?</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIf you would like to be in the monthly draw to win a “FREE 10-WEEK SUBSCRIPTION” to the PREMIUM SERVICE, valued at CAD$500.00, all you should do is subscribe to receive this FREE NEWSLETTER on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nThis can be done as follows: -\r\n\r\nOn my welcome page just below my cube logo is where you complete your subscription.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"7\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:\r\n</strong>(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"8\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE SOAPBOX:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>\r\nARE WE APPROACHING THE TIPPING POINT?</strong>\r\n\r\nSince returning from vacation in New Zealand and Australia, my SOAPBOX titles have been: -\r\n\r\nARE THE GAME KEEPERS NOW POACHERS?\r\nGBP – IS IT A LONG OR SHORT TRADE?\r\nIS THE CENTRAL BANK DIVERGENCE TRADE FINALLY IN PLAY?\r\n\r\nAll three items have generated a lot of likes and a few comments as usual, most nice but a few not so nice.\r\n\r\nNow; either I have lost the plot, which could be the case, or economically things are really motoring along and policies are changing so fast that unease is being created in the marketplace?\r\n\r\nAlmost as soon as I wrote about “The Divergence trade” Draghi, Poloz and Carney all came out HAWKISH.\r\n\r\nI analyzed the cable and its cross-rates and within a week or so we have Carney “flip-flop”.\r\n\r\nFinally, the Central banks except BOC, walked back hawkish comments in the aftermath of the reaction to the change in sentiment. This shows to me the dilemma the central banks are in on the basis that they want to alert the markets of potential policy changes in the pipeline, but do not want the currency fluctuations that go with any announcement, which I can understand.\r\n\r\nNow I am not raising the issue that as soon as I write in the DRIVE THRU the market sentiment reverses because I have raised an issue. I am writing stating that as a FUNDAMENTAL trader the fundamentals that I am working with are now changing, and that, I believe we are approaching the TIPPING POINT for sentiment / momentum / central bank policy and reactions to economic data shifting. These items alone won’t bring us over the edge but in conjunction with a major geopolitical event… dare I even say it BLACK SWAN event.\r\n\r\nJust based on recent factors we have noticed attitudes and reactions are changing. In the past, we would have seen big moves on geopolitical events now the markets are largely muted. This is complacency in my opinion. Trying to place my thoughts logically for this section was a bit challenging, I hope you can follow without too many re-reads.\r\n\r\nLet me elaborate a bit, bear with me: -\r\n\r\nThere are many examples of this primarily with the BOE through the “flip flopper” and the ECB through Mario Draghi and his hangers on (Wiedmann and Nowotny) over a potential taper tantrum and interest rate policy in the medium–term amongst other issues.\r\n\r\nHowever, I prefer to use Janet Yellen and the FED/FOMC as my example, otherwise I will have pages and pages of stuff.\r\n\r\nGo back in time to Ben Bernanke, then add on Yellen’s tenure up to the TRUMP presidential victory in 2016. I think that it would be safe to say that the FED telegraphed every move to the markets… absolutely no surprises. Every piece of data was analyzed and reviewed over and over vis-à-vis context and the impact on the market was scrutinized left, right and centre.\r\n\r\nWith Janet Yellen this policy of total transparency continued up to the FED press conference in December 2016.\r\n\r\nBased upon the backdrop of a Pseudo republican victory via “THE DONALD” it all changed.\r\n\r\nThe markets got bulled up about tax cuts, infrastructure spending, less controls on medical costs as it was a policy to repeal Obamacare (The Affordable Care Act). Regulation on Wall Street would be reduced and monies owned by multi-national US companies lodged outside of the US would be repatriated back under a tax incentive scheme. Companies would be encouraged through lower taxation to retain a U.S. presence instead of moving outside of the U.S. because of high local taxes and cheaper labour costs elsewhere.\r\n\r\nI think that I am correct in saying 6 months in and “THE DONALD” has achieved zero on that list.\r\n\r\nHowever, was the FED also bulled up and wanting to get ahead of the curve that it had been so many times criticized of being behind on?\r\n\r\nWithout doubt this year with a backdrop of very mixed, sometimes poor U.S. economic data the FED has marched on with rate increases regardless.\r\n\r\nIt is out of character for Janet Yellen, who frankly sounds DOVISH even when she is delivering HAWKISH sentiment.\r\n\r\nHas this complete change of policy by the FED lit a fire under other central banks?\r\n\r\nI think that The FED’s outright disregard for data dependency of late has created a sea change. However, notably, the BOJ under Kuroda has signaled that the support to the market through bond purchasing will continue. The backdrop to this very recent BOJ announcement was that Kuroda has no fresh ideas and should be replaced. The RBA under relatively new governor, Philip Lowe left policy neutral last week when many were calling for a more hawkish tone.\r\n\r\nIs it now a case of, the FED is changing policy regardless of data so we should all change?\r\n\r\nI would have thought most central banks could get away with a lag in timing hence my piece about CENTRAL BANK DIVERGENCE four weeks ago. After all the divergence for as long as possible should help home exporters and dis-advantage the U.S. exporters at the same time. A little bit of that can’t be bad… I would have thought.\r\n\r\nLooking at the macro level it looks like a sea change is in effect and we are about to change fundamentally.\r\n\r\nWhilst I talk in the present… the now; do not forget we are still dealing with culture and a central bank’s monetary policies are slow to turn around, we are in 2017 there will be communications and a gentle feed into any changes. The wham-bam-thank-you-mam approach of especially Mario Draghi will be re-thought and a more leisurely delivery in bite sized chunks will be adopted, I am certain of this.\r\n\r\nSo; how does it translate into forex trading?\r\n\r\nFX is noted as being a future pricing instrument. As we know, the markets react, then re-think and correct if required.\r\n\r\nThe FED with its present approach in normal circumstances from my perspective tell you that the USD will strengthen and challenge 100.00 once again with US $ index (DXY). In fact, the USD cannot get out of its own way… why?\r\n\r\nThe single currency was hit so hard but is so resilient it never hit parity, never mind sub parity as some banks were calling. Economically the EUROZONE was so poor (it still is in some countries) it was beaten up so bad, it has the greatest opportunity given the TRUMP administration ineffectiveness to bounce back. In 2017, the markets decided that at some stage the ECB will turn hawkish so the single currency has been generally supported at the expense of the DXY moving back to 100.00 once again.\r\n\r\nThe result of all this putting the shenanigans to one side is wide trading ranges. If you look across most currency pairs especially with the USD majors we are in trading ranges: -\r\n\r\nEUR/USD: 1.1200 – 1.1450\r\nGBP/USD: 1.2600 – 1.3050\r\nAUD/USD: 0.7300 – 0.7750\r\nNZD/USD: 0.6820 - 0.7350\r\nUSD/CHF: 0.9550 – 1.0150\r\nUSD/JPY: 108.00 – 114.50\r\n\r\nThese ranges can be described as large ranges but you can also mark off mini-ranges within these levels that contain the price action. I know, we are in the summer doldrums of trading and ranges within ranges are commonplace. I agree with this but there’s more going on in the peripheral and reactions to potential disturbing geopolitical events are muted to say the least.\r\n\r\nTherefore, what I see is that the TIPPING POINT will be a bit of a domino event triggered by a geopolitical event, the bigger than normal central bank policy decision, or, a governmental policy decision that shakes the market so much that even these broad trading ranges noted above are broken with the result being a major shift in policy both for governments and central banks. This creates a market panic.\r\n\r\nSo let me drill this thought down a little more. Triggers starting this domino effect could be such as the following: -\r\n\r\nNORTH KOREA nuclear flexing.\r\nMIDDLE EASTERN tensions over spilling into OIL supplies grinding to a halt.\r\nA NEW WORLD ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN leading to recession.\r\n\r\nI am sure you can think of a few more items for the list, but I hope you get my point. There is so much uncertainty and lack of clarity dotted about, I believe we are prime for a big move.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"9\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #244 FREE NEWSLETTER VERSION\r\nDATE: 9th July 2017.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','ARE WE APPROACHING THE TIPPING POINT?','','inherit','closed','closed','','9684-revision-v1','','','2017-07-08 11:17:09','2017-07-08 16:17:09','',9684,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/9684-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(9687,1,'2017-07-08 11:17:46','2017-07-08 16:17:46','&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nAfter the week before last week with its non-stop fun (my ex. work buddies would now be on the floor pissing themselves laughing at that opening remark), we had a rather more sedated look to the markets the week just gone. It was a holiday week in both Canada and the US, with the Independence Day holiday in many cases being extended by an extra day’s holiday being taken to make it a very long weekend for some traders. Thus, it was really a three-day week for near normal, bear in mind that it is also the summer, market participation.\r\n\r\nFrom my own trading perspective with a vacation and house move well in the rear-view mirror over 600 pips were added to the PREMIUM SERVICE total for 2017 in the three days on closed trades.\r\n\r\nI will always tell it how it is. Trying to focus on trading when in the middle of a house move and then setting up in a house plus a vacation around the same time, is practically impossible and I count myself as well disciplined.\r\n\r\nI am now settled into my new environment and the fruits of this are starting to come through in my set up and trades undertaken. I have never doubted my abilities to generate $$$ and pips and I am now fully engaged in playing catch up to meet my 10,000-pip objective for 2017. It is a tall order given the start to 2017, but I am 100% focused on the requirements ahead.\r\n\r\nAs I wrote to PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers last week, I trade for the long haul and I will NOT take on trades just for the sake of trades. Whilst I have an ambitious target to meet, I will not sacrifice my TRADING DISCIPLINES outlined in my TRADE PLAN. These I hold dear as they provide longevity in trading which is paramount to trading success in my opinion.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> LAST WEEK – MY TAKE ON SOME KEY EVENTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nDespite a shortened week from my perspective there were still a few takeaways of note.\r\n\r\nIn no particular order, here is what floated my boat last week.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>AUD (RBA):Philip Lowe delivered a very interesting statement, which to some extent caught some of the market off guard.From the prior week’s “Rock Star” adulation that followed Draghi, Poloz and Carney after they all turned hawkish, I think many pundits expected the same from Philip Lowe.\r\n\r\nThe RBA remained neutral and the AUD weakened across the board. The takeaways that stood out for me were: -\r\n\r\nPolicy is consistent with: -\r\n\r\nGrowth and inflation targets\r\nIndicators of Labour Demand remain mixed.\r\nEmployment Growth has been stronger over recent months.\r\nSigns that the housing market is starting to cool.\r\nHousing Debt has outpaced the slow growth in incomes.\r\nA rising AUD$ would complicate the economic adjustment.\r\n\r\nBasically, it was a do not “Rock the Boat” approach.\r\n\r\nAustralian exports are not going to argue with the approach as the appreciating AUD$ is a pain.</li>\r\n 	<li>GBP (PMi, Industrial and Manufacturing Output data plus Mark Carney):All three PMi figures were misses on consensus expectations (Manufacturing (54.3), Construction (54.8) and Services (53.4)).Now, I am not shouting from the rooftops saying that the UK economy is about to fall off a cliff, but I am so damn close to doing so. It was a crap week for UK economic data.\r\n\r\nThe PMI data was all well above the “50 level” but maybe now just over a year after the referendum vote was taken, the concerns are starting to creep in.\r\n\r\nThe Industrial (0.1% versus 0.4% expected) and Manufacturing (0.2% versus 0.5% expected) data released on Friday last week were just poor. Whilst they are by no means top tier data releases the simple fact is so much UK data is poor it should have an impact. (It’s had an impact on my thoughts!).</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">After the BREXIT vote in June 2016 the UK economy looked positive in fact quite resilient but 2017 is the opposite. The BREXIT uncertainty has come through in most aspects of the economy.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">I realise that the recent MPC vote was 5-3 and not 7-1 as expected. Carney was dovish in his Mansion House breakfast speech and then a week later in Sintra, Portugal he was hawkish vis-à-vis the BOE need to look at interest rates rising soon…. really.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">When is soon?  For me it’s anything from a week or so to a few months. For my boy Labrador, Ozzy, soon equals now, in fact in his language it means yesterday!</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">I just don’t get Carney. His forward guidance pre-BREXIT was shite to put it mildly and frankly he just digs huge holes for himself to fall into. He will probably flip-flop again against the backdrop of this week’s data.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">I am looking at pressure on wages, household spending, retail sales, consumer confidence and housing in the UK as well as last week’s data and I am NOT getting a warm fuzzy feeling at all. Carney’s flip-flopping made feck all sense to me. It looked like a childish “TRUMPLIKE” action because at the ECB Economic Forum both Draghi (ECB) and Poloz (BOC) were both very hawkish about the future.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">I just cannot see the BOE raising rates this year and probably not well into 2018. There are just too many BREXIT uncertainties combined with poor economic data. Never mind Haldane’s economists view on inflation.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">I think that it is quite simple. There is just too much to risk with BREXIT.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">Was it David Bloom (Global Head FX Strategy) HSBC who predicted cable back at 1.2000 and EUR/GBP at parity a few weeks ago?</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">Hmmn… good calls maybe!\r\n\r\n\r\n</p>\r\n\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>USD (FOMC Meeting Minutes, PMi data, ADP and NFP):Indecision… indecision.Personally in my opinion it’s obvious that the FED cannot agree on peripheral policy moving forward.\r\n\r\nBalance sheet tapering is the new buzz phrase now.\r\n\r\nFrankly, I believe the FED are going to continue moving forward relentlessly in their normalization policy to ensure that they have tools in the box to use as we head into another global worldwide recession. With this move in play who gives a f**k about Balance Sheet tapering.\r\n\r\nThe TRUMP administration has been bogged down by a dysfunctional party line divided Washington D.C. not helped by the fact that TRUMP himself continues to score own goals with his twitter feed in the name of keeping his core support informed.\r\n\r\nThe “ART OF THE DEAL” has been beaten by career politicians who couldn’t give a shit. The draining of the swamp was not as straightforward as he thought and he has been largely ineffective. The Washington machine has won but at what cost?\r\n\r\nPMi data was good last week with consensus levels being beaten with both Manufacturing (57.8) and Non-Manufacturing (57.4) data. This shows life in the economy. However, Autos, Housing, Retail Sales and Confidence drives the “Ultimate Consumer society” and these are very mixed to say the least.\r\n\r\nADP employment was a miss 158k versus 185k expected.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">NFP data was 222k versus 179k expected, once again the ADP and NFP numbers show no consistency and leading up to NFP U.S. data was NOT supportive of a beat! It was the average Hourly Rate that caused concern for the markets as the data was released. It remained at a constant 0.2%, the markets were expecting growth to 0.3%.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">The market reaction was in my own opinion very minimal to the data. Without doubt the “hourlies” stunted the market reaction.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">I find it very hard with U.S. labour statistics as they are always being revised. They should buy a computer like mine and get a guy in from “O and M” to sort out a reporting system that works properly the first time. It is just a bloody nonsense that these numbers are never accurate. Here’s an idea… report the data in week two of the month rather than week one!! Try to give yourselves some credibility.\r\n\r\n\r\n</p>\r\n\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>BREXIT:The negotiations have started in Brussels. Nothing much at all is being leaked. This surprises me, or maybe they are still agreeing on what pens to use on what size of paper?</li>\r\n 	<li>BOJ (Kuroda and Central Bank comments on Bond Purchases):Bucking the trend of other high profile Central Bank governors, the BOJ re-asserted its commitment at all costs to continue with its BOND purchasing program. The BOJ remains DOVISH.</li>\r\n 	<li>OIL:The helter-skelter price action continues. First bearish, then bullish and into the close of last week reversing the bullish move to move bearish once again.All this with a backdrop of conflict, mis-trust and tension in the middle east.\r\nSaudi Arabia – Qatar, Saudi Arabia – Iran, Saudi Arabia – Yemen and Egypt – Libya.\r\n\r\nEven myself; the most bearish OIL person on the planet, because of simple supply and demand economic theory, would concede that maybe a spike higher given the tension could be argued in favour of price action towards $55-$60 a barrel.\r\n\r\nWhat a strange world we live in.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU – LIVE WEBINAR:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nThere is a summer break with my LIVE WEBINARS they will return in the fall / autumn.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ECON-DATA-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9665\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ECON-DATA-09072017-1024x998.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"998\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>MY THOUGHTS ON THE ECONOMIC DATA EVENTS THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>BOC: This is the pick of the week for me based upon the recent hawkish sentiment change from Stephen Poloz (Governor BOC).The big question is of course, is he ready to sanction a rate increase this week?Analysts believe so, and a 0.25% increase to 0.75% has been predicted.\r\n\r\nCan you imagine what would happen to the CAD pairs should he not raise rates? Since his deputy announced a couple of weeks ago that the dovish approach could be ending, the USD/CAD has fallen from 1.3600 to sub 1.3000.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">If the rate hike happens, is there more left to fall? Dead right there is; I think that 1.2760 is an obvious target.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">However, should he not hike now, what would happen?</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">In my opinion I think we could see a fast retrace to around 1.3250, but this could be tempered by the accompanying commentary and again with the press conference 75 minutes later.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">I think that the ramifications of not raising rates would be incredible and although I am not positioned short USD/CAD etc. at the moment, I hope to have positions in profit with stop losses at break-even just in case… you just never know.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">Many Central Bank governors appear to suffer from “premature verbage”. It is quite a targeted disease.</p>\r\n\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li>JANET YELLEN – Semi-annual Monetary Policy Report:I hate writing this but we are back on a “will she / won’t she” raise rates again this year news cycle.Just a word of caution her prepared speech is released to the markets 90 minutes prior to her taking her seat to deliver it and then ask questions.</li>\r\n 	<li>USD (Producer and Consumer prices / Retail Sales):Thursday’s and Friday’s data will be interesting to follow.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">These will be crucial to the markets re the hike or no further hike scenarios, however I feel the FED is raising regardless one more time this year, probably in December.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">Time will tell.</p>\r\n<u>USD MAJORS – SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS TO NOTE THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/TCHART-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9666\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/TCHART-09072017-1024x855.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"855\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n\r\n<strong>EUR/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/EURUSD-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9675\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/EURUSD-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>GBP/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/GBPUSD-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9676\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/GBPUSD-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>AUD/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/AUDUSD-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9674\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/AUDUSD-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>NZD/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/NZDUSD-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9677\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/NZDUSD-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CAD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCAD-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9678\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCAD-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CHF:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCHF-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9679\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCHF-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/JPY:</strong>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDJPY-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9680\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDJPY-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE?</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber based Forex support service offering not just trade set-ups, but a bunch of different support services that differentiates the PREMIUM SERVICE from other providers, my competitors, that operate in the same space.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\nSo; if nothing else, I tell it how it is. I am currently about 50% of my target for this time of the year. I had a poor start to the year and I am now following a vacation and house move in recovery mode.\r\n\r\nIn 2014, 2015 and 2016 I beat my 10,000 pip per annum objective. There is nothing stopping me doing the same this year as my house move and vacation are both behind me. I will be trading pretty much full time from now on through to the end of 2017.\r\n\r\nIf you want to be a part of what I hope will be a storming end to 2017, login at my website and get subscribed. I mean business from here on in.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nMONTH TO DATE:  +675 pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE:      +3,080 pips\r\n\r\nIf you would like to know a little more about THE PREMIUM SERVICE please feel free to watch the following 40-minute video via the link below:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://bit.ly/PremServiceQ217\">http://bit.ly/PremServiceQ217</a>\r\n\r\nPLEASE NOTE: the above video is best viewed using a Google Chrome browser.\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><strong>WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION?</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIf you would like to be in the monthly draw to win a “FREE 10-WEEK SUBSCRIPTION” to the PREMIUM SERVICE, valued at CAD$500.00, all you should do is subscribe to receive this FREE NEWSLETTER on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nThis can be done as follows: -\r\n\r\nOn my welcome page just below my cube logo is where you complete your subscription.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"7\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:\r\n</strong>(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"8\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE SOAPBOX:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>\r\nARE WE APPROACHING THE TIPPING POINT?</strong>\r\n\r\nSince returning from vacation in New Zealand and Australia, my SOAPBOX titles have been: -\r\n\r\nARE THE GAME KEEPERS NOW POACHERS?\r\nGBP – IS IT A LONG OR SHORT TRADE?\r\nIS THE CENTRAL BANK DIVERGENCE TRADE FINALLY IN PLAY?\r\n\r\nAll three items have generated a lot of likes and a few comments as usual, most nice but a few not so nice.\r\n\r\nNow; either I have lost the plot, which could be the case, or economically things are really motoring along and policies are changing so fast that unease is being created in the marketplace?\r\n\r\nAlmost as soon as I wrote about “The Divergence trade” Draghi, Poloz and Carney all came out HAWKISH.\r\n\r\nI analyzed the cable and its cross-rates and within a week or so we have Carney “flip-flop”.\r\n\r\nFinally, the Central banks except BOC, walked back hawkish comments in the aftermath of the reaction to the change in sentiment. This shows to me the dilemma the central banks are in on the basis that they want to alert the markets of potential policy changes in the pipeline, but do not want the currency fluctuations that go with any announcement, which I can understand.\r\n\r\nNow I am not raising the issue that as soon as I write in the DRIVE THRU the market sentiment reverses because I have raised an issue. I am writing stating that as a FUNDAMENTAL trader the fundamentals that I am working with are now changing, and that, I believe we are approaching the TIPPING POINT for sentiment / momentum / central bank policy and reactions to economic data shifting. These items alone won’t bring us over the edge but in conjunction with a major geopolitical event… dare I even say it BLACK SWAN event.\r\n\r\nJust based on recent factors we have noticed attitudes and reactions are changing. In the past, we would have seen big moves on geopolitical events now the markets are largely muted. This is complacency in my opinion. Trying to place my thoughts logically for this section was a bit challenging, I hope you can follow without too many re-reads.\r\n\r\nLet me elaborate a bit, bear with me: -\r\n\r\nThere are many examples of this primarily with the BOE through the “flip flopper” and the ECB through Mario Draghi and his hangers on (Wiedmann and Nowotny) over a potential taper tantrum and interest rate policy in the medium–term amongst other issues.\r\n\r\nHowever, I prefer to use Janet Yellen and the FED/FOMC as my example, otherwise I will have pages and pages of stuff.\r\n\r\nGo back in time to Ben Bernanke, then add on Yellen’s tenure up to the TRUMP presidential victory in 2016. I think that it would be safe to say that the FED telegraphed every move to the markets… absolutely no surprises. Every piece of data was analyzed and reviewed over and over vis-à-vis context and the impact on the market was scrutinized left, right and centre.\r\n\r\nWith Janet Yellen this policy of total transparency continued up to the FED press conference in December 2016.\r\n\r\nBased upon the backdrop of a Pseudo republican victory via “THE DONALD” it all changed.\r\n\r\nThe markets got bulled up about tax cuts, infrastructure spending, less controls on medical costs as it was a policy to repeal Obamacare (The Affordable Care Act). Regulation on Wall Street would be reduced and monies owned by multi-national US companies lodged outside of the US would be repatriated back under a tax incentive scheme. Companies would be encouraged through lower taxation to retain a U.S. presence instead of moving outside of the U.S. because of high local taxes and cheaper labour costs elsewhere.\r\n\r\nI think that I am correct in saying 6 months in and “THE DONALD” has achieved zero on that list.\r\n\r\nHowever, was the FED also bulled up and wanting to get ahead of the curve that it had been so many times criticized of being behind on?\r\n\r\nWithout doubt this year with a backdrop of very mixed, sometimes poor U.S. economic data the FED has marched on with rate increases regardless.\r\n\r\nIt is out of character for Janet Yellen, who frankly sounds DOVISH even when she is delivering HAWKISH sentiment.\r\n\r\nHas this complete change of policy by the FED lit a fire under other central banks?\r\n\r\nI think that The FED’s outright disregard for data dependency of late has created a sea change. However, notably, the BOJ under Kuroda has signaled that the support to the market through bond purchasing will continue. The backdrop to this very recent BOJ announcement was that Kuroda has no fresh ideas and should be replaced. The RBA under relatively new governor, Philip Lowe left policy neutral last week when many were calling for a more hawkish tone.\r\n\r\nIs it now a case of, the FED is changing policy regardless of data so we should all change?\r\n\r\nI would have thought most central banks could get away with a lag in timing hence my piece about CENTRAL BANK DIVERGENCE four weeks ago. After all the divergence for as long as possible should help home exporters and dis-advantage the U.S. exporters at the same time. A little bit of that can’t be bad… I would have thought.\r\n\r\nLooking at the macro level it looks like a sea change is in effect and we are about to change fundamentally.\r\n\r\nWhilst I talk in the present… the now; do not forget we are still dealing with culture and a central bank’s monetary policies are slow to turn around, we are in 2017 there will be communications and a gentle feed into any changes. The wham-bam-thank-you-mam approach of especially Mario Draghi will be re-thought and a more leisurely delivery in bite sized chunks will be adopted, I am certain of this.\r\n\r\nSo; how does it translate into forex trading?\r\n\r\nFX is noted as being a future pricing instrument. As we know, the markets react, then re-think and correct if required.\r\n\r\nThe FED with its present approach in normal circumstances from my perspective tell you that the USD will strengthen and challenge 100.00 once again with US $ index (DXY). In fact, the USD cannot get out of its own way… why?\r\n\r\nThe single currency was hit so hard but is so resilient it never hit parity, never mind sub parity as some banks were calling. Economically the EUROZONE was so poor (it still is in some countries) it was beaten up so bad, it has the greatest opportunity given the TRUMP administration ineffectiveness to bounce back. In 2017, the markets decided that at some stage the ECB will turn hawkish so the single currency has been generally supported at the expense of the DXY moving back to 100.00 once again.\r\n\r\nThe result of all this putting the shenanigans to one side is wide trading ranges. If you look across most currency pairs especially with the USD majors we are in trading ranges: -\r\n\r\nEUR/USD: 1.1200 – 1.1450\r\nGBP/USD: 1.2600 – 1.3050\r\nAUD/USD: 0.7300 – 0.7750\r\nNZD/USD: 0.6820 - 0.7350\r\nUSD/CHF: 0.9550 – 1.0150\r\nUSD/JPY: 108.00 – 114.50\r\n\r\nThese ranges can be described as large ranges but you can also mark off mini-ranges within these levels that contain the price action. I know, we are in the summer doldrums of trading and ranges within ranges are commonplace. I agree with this but there’s more going on in the peripheral and reactions to potential disturbing geopolitical events are muted to say the least.\r\n\r\nTherefore, what I see is that the TIPPING POINT will be a bit of a domino event triggered by a geopolitical event, the bigger than normal central bank policy decision, or, a governmental policy decision that shakes the market so much that even these broad trading ranges noted above are broken with the result being a major shift in policy both for governments and central banks. This creates a market panic.\r\n\r\nSo let me drill this thought down a little more. Triggers starting this domino effect could be such as the following: -\r\n\r\nNORTH KOREA nuclear flexing.\r\nMIDDLE EASTERN tensions over spilling into OIL supplies grinding to a halt.\r\nA NEW WORLD ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN leading to recession.\r\n\r\nI am sure you can think of a few more items for the list, but I hope you get my point. There is so much uncertainty and lack of clarity dotted about, I believe we are prime for a big move.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"9\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #244 FREE NEWSLETTER VERSION\r\nDATE: 9th July 2017.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','ARE WE APPROACHING THE TIPPING POINT?','','inherit','closed','closed','','9684-revision-v1','','','2017-07-08 11:17:46','2017-07-08 16:17:46','',9684,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/9684-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(10262,1,'2017-10-21 06:06:03','2017-10-21 11:06:03','&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nI began last week, carrying forward from the prior week some large negative cross rates losses. The charts prior to some poor US data were relatively constructive and I made the decision based upon my longer-term views to HEDGE four cross-rate trades. The decision to HEDGE was made primarily due to rising geopolitical tensions and headline news events that could just rip up in my face… NORTH KOREA, IRAN, CATALONIA and BREXIT.\r\n\r\nAt the beginning of the week, Monday and Tuesday, I was playing a waiting and watching game. Now HEDGED my losses were fixed and I set up what I call the “OUT” trade based on revised chart analysis. The market was slow and just trying to extract a few pips a day was difficult as we were range bound. I was\r\n\r\nTweeting and writing to my subscribers that for me at the current time it was all about patience. I had to let the markets consolidate.\r\n\r\nWednesday I was really pist off as I let a few pips drift by.\r\n\r\nThen overnight Wednesday/Thursday early morning it all kicked off. My PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers were already positioned SHORT the NZD as this was one of my CORE POSITIONS for some time.\r\n\r\nThe coalition announcement was just what the doctor ordered. At one stage I had almost 30 LIVE trades to deal with and fresh trades triggered what felt like every two or three minutes as the Kiwi got crushed. At 2:30AM last Thursday I was up and at my screens. The following 4-5 hours reminded me why I enjoy trading so much. I took profits off the table, banked pips, moved stops to protect $$$, increased limits and removed some other trades that were just part of the forest stopping me from seeing the wood on the trees I wanted to follow. It was hectic, and, at times frantic whilst I gathered my thoughts and put my TRADING PLAN which was thought through from the night before into action.\r\n\r\nTwo of the HEDGES have been exited in profit by 132 additional pips. Of the remaining HEDGES, one is on the way to its exit and the other has yet to move considerably in my chosen “OUT” direction, but as my trading position is fixed; I can wait and focus elsewhere first.\r\n\r\nThe great news is that from my trading perspective the New Zealand government coalition is NZD negative and the trade has only just begun.\r\n\r\nSo, what I thought was going to be one of the most boring weeks of trading since I started was exciting and quite profitable.\r\n\r\nTo put the week in perspective. The prior week 160 net pips were added. Last week the PREMIUM SERVICE added an additional net pip total of +1,112 pips, making the total for 2017 +9,159 pips.\r\n\r\nOn June 25th, 2017, just after Breda and I had completed our trip to Australia and New Zealand, which followed our cross-country house move into Nova Scotia, the pip total stood at 2,113 pips.\r\n\r\nThe pip gathering since the start of July this year has been relentless, but at the same time there have been days of inactivity waiting for trades and being patient.\r\n\r\nI was going to place this next paragraph about trading with THE PREMIUM SERVICE at the end of the blog but it makes sense to include it here: -\r\n\r\nMy annual target of 10,000 pips is in sight, however, nothing can be taken for granted and given that my position sizing this year has been smaller due to the markets have greater RISK attached my income from trading will be lower this year… but, there should be an income barring any disasters in the run up to the year end.\r\n\r\nMy point here as I mention every year is that those of you who trade with smaller account sizes can still make some money from trading Forex.\r\n\r\nSingle MINI LOT trades                                 = USD$1.00 each\r\nPREMIUM SERVICE Annual target               = 10,000 pips\r\nAnticipated Gross Income                            = USD$10,000 (10,000 pips x USD$1)\r\n\r\nLess PREMIUM SERVICE\r\nAnnual subscription                                       = USD$1,000 (equivalent)\r\nNET TRADING INCOME                                 = USD$9,000\r\n\r\nWorking on the 50% rule\r\nShould you can only capture:\r\n50% of my suggested trades\r\n50% of my entries on time\r\n50% of my exits on time\r\nYou could still generate a NET INCOME\r\nafter subscription                                            of USD$4,0000\r\n\r\nObviously, you would need in the first year to open and adequately fund a broker account to meet the trading criteria you have set yourself. I would say to trade MINI LOT trades you would require a minimum of a USD$6,000 account for you first year after one year you should be able to trade and operate your account on trading income and then as the year’s progress increase your trading size to say 2 or 3 MINI LOTS but at the same time you must remember increased POSITION SIZES = INCREASED RISK.\r\n\r\nRISK MANAGEMENT is crucial to FX trading. Without it you fail.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong></strong><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong>&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.1: LOOKING BACK AT LAST WEEK’S NEWS.</u></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nHere is what tickled my fancy in the news last week as a currency trader.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>NZD</u></strong><u>: GOVERNMENT COALITION ANNOUNCEMENT.</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n26 days following the New Zealand elections, Jacinda Ardern leader of the Labour Party became the country’s latest Prime Minister.\r\n\r\nThere was a split vote almost a month ago and the New Zealand First Party leader, Winston Peters in dramatic form announced that his populist party would throw its support in a coalition with Labour. Along with the “greens” the NZ First and Labour will be the coalition government.\r\n\r\nIt was pure theatre as, neither incumbent Prime Minister Bill English, nor Jacinda Adern knew which way Winston Peters was going move.\r\n\r\nThis result and the coalition is a total unknown and the markets would have preferred a Bill English National Party led coalition.\r\n\r\nThis move should NOT be underestimated, as it is mammoth. It was a decision for change involving Housing, Immigration, reducing NZ poverty and Foreign Investment in property. These are structural economic changes.\r\n\r\nOn the news, the NZD/USD was crushed lower by 160 pips, the EUR/NZD and GBP/USD moved up by over 400 pips each and the antipodean cross AUD/NZD moved up by over 270 pips.\r\n\r\nThese moves were stellar and over the coming sessions I see these moves consolidating. There should be plenty of pips available into the end of the year.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP:</u></strong><u> CPi, CARNEY, AVERAGE EARNINGS, RETAIL SALES &amp; BREXIT.</u>\r\n\r\nIt was an action-packed week for sterling.\r\n\r\nThe week started well with CPI which was in line with expectations at 3% this is basically what is fueling the BOE accountants to raise rates as it is a full 1% above the BOE target.\r\n\r\nCarney presented in front of a House of Commons committee on inflation and was dovish but saying that interest rates would probably rise, but it would be more than likely reading between the “yada yada” a one and done scenario. He saw inflation stopping around 3% and cable sold off as a result. There was nothing new in what Carney said so the market reaction was as usual weird.\r\n\r\nAverage earnings came in a 2.2%. The difference between earnings and inflation at 0.8% is hardly the climate in which to raise rates in my opinion. Nevertheless, it looks a done deal with an 80% market expectation that UK interest rates will move higher in November.\r\n\r\nJust to spice things up Retail Sales were a miss. In fact, it was a bloody awful number -0.8% versus an expectation of -0.1%. Cable sold off and then in usual cable style during the day recovered most of its losses.\r\n\r\nIn the middle of all the economic data the BREXIT roadshow stumbled along. Theresa May and David Davis met with Michel Barnier and although a cover up the cracks press release from both parties said that it was a beneficial meeting, the two-year Article 50 transition period extension that Prime Minister May requested did not appear as a resolution from the meeting, so for now at least the March 2019 deadline remains, unreal as it is!\r\n\r\nSo, the $64,000 question is how do you trade cable?\r\n\r\nA few months ago, I think it was HSBC who had a call that matched my own thoughts which was, GBP/USD 1.2000 and EUR/GBP to parity. They have since changed their minds on this call on the basis that originally, they believed that the economy would drive cable and not the BOE. Of late, the BOE is the driver of cable.\r\n\r\nHowever, I am still not so sure that the 1.2000 and parity calls are still the correct ones.\r\n\r\nTo raise rates as I have repeatedly stated during so much uncertainty hanging over the UK never mind the 3% inflation rate is just crazy in my opinion. The fact that earnings are still lagging by 0.8% must weigh in somewhere one would think.\r\n\r\nIt is now widely reported that the BREXIT deal cannot be struck by March 2019 and a “NO DEAL” scenario is becoming more and more likely. I have said from the get go 2 years to exit was an unreal time-scale and I am now vindicated with my prediction and thought process from months ago.\r\n\r\nBack to FX…\r\n\r\nI still do NOT know what way to trade cable. The crosses are now mixed following the New Zealand news. GBP/NZD is pressing higher and the AUD/NZD is also pressing higher which, places pressure on the GBP/AUD to move lower.\r\n\r\nThe EUR/GBP is moving higher back towards 0.9000 once again, however, it appears that it is cool and trendy to short this pair. I do NOT agree with the sheep mentality here and think that this may be the pair to focus on rather than GBP/USD.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>EUR:</u></strong><u> CATALONIA.</u>\r\n\r\nYou couldn’t make this stuff up.\r\n\r\nThursday last week was the deadline for Catalonia to declare independence. The Catalan president Carles Puidegemont said he wanted to talk dirty with Rahoy, but the Prime minister basically said bollocks and triggered the Spanish government’s Article 155, which takes power away from Catalonia.\r\n\r\nWhat next?\r\n\r\nHere’s a taster for what’s ahead. The Catalan government allegedly instructed supporters of independence to go to SABADELL and LA CAIXA banks and take as much cash as they could out of the ATM machines. Trying to create a “RUN” on the banks as these two have announced moving their headquarters out of Catalonia because of the uncertainty.\r\n\r\nOn all the Catalonian shenanigans the EUR/USD fell a few pips and then regained almost all of them back again. This pair is Teflon coated.\r\n\r\nHow the hell do you trade this pair?\r\n\r\nThe ECB eagerly awaited press conference is due this coming Thursday maybe all will be revealed then from the words of wisdom from Mario Draghi. Although, as I wrote last week the ECB has given out detailed forward guidance already on their intentions, there are only a few blanks left to fill. Am I going crazy?\r\n\r\nThe threat of nuclear war from the little rocket man does bugger all to move markets, so the potential of the Spanish economy going down the tubes is like a pimple on the back of an elephant.\r\n\r\nThe Spanish / Catalonia crisis will rumble on for weeks….\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>CAD:</u></strong><u> RETAIL SALES &amp; CPi.</u>\r\n\r\nShocking numbers. Retail Sales came through at -0.3%, the market was expecting 0.5%. CPi missed 0.2% monthly versus 0.3% and year to date 1.6% versus 1.7%.\r\n\r\nThis week on Wednesday, the BOC meets. I am still thinking that the BOC will raise before the year end but it looks very doubtful that a rate increase will be announced this week.\r\n\r\nExpect the word “TRANSITORY” to be used a few times!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD</u></strong><u>: JANET YELLEN’S REPLACEMENT.</u>\r\n\r\nWho is it going to be?\r\n\r\nTake your pick.\r\n\r\nJANET YELLEN\r\n\r\nGARY COHN\r\n\r\nJEROME POWELL\r\n\r\nKEVIN WARSH\r\n\r\nJOHN TAYLOR\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nDONALD TRUMP’S opinions in my opinion, are usually based on the “Last Man Standing” approach. The last person he speaks with is usually just wonderful, much better than the person a day earlier who was at that time the best one so far.\r\n\r\nThis has taken up a lot of TV time and newspaper column inches and social media chatter. I can speculate here until the cows come home and even with a deadline in place which is just around the corner, I could still be speculating as my wife and I sit down to our Christmas dinner.\r\n\r\nI take the view that the FED chairperson can influence the markets but he or she does rule over the institution single handedly. There are civil servant types in place to stop change. The FED chair only has limited scope in my opinion. The institution is very long standing and formats and structures are in place to stop people getting carried away with power going to their head.\r\n\r\nTRUMP’s interview will be along the lines of keep interest rates low and say that you want to make America great again and you have the job. That is how simplistic I think TRUMP believes the job to be…. frightening, very scary stuff.\r\n\r\nWe are being told that JEROME POWELL and JOHN TAYLOR are the two front-runners and that a decision will be announced within the next 10 days prior to TRUMP jetting with Melania to Asia on a goodwill visit to calm tensions in the area…yeah right tensions reduced my arse!\r\n\r\nWhat I can tell you in this blog is that the name of Janet Yellen’s replacement appears to have a greater impact on the USD (DXY) than the threat of a nuclear warhead from North Korea…. go figure that one out!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2: LOOKING AHEAD TO THIS COMING WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n2.2.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ECON-DATA-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10237\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ECON-DATA-22102017-1024x713.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"713\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.2: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/T-CHART-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10238\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/T-CHART-22102017-1024x839.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"839\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.3: USD – TRADING CHARTS and COMMENTARIES: </u>\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>EUR/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/EURUSD-D-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10250\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/EURUSD-D-22102017-1024x500.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"500\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/GBPUSD-D-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10251\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/GBPUSD-D-22102017-1024x500.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"500\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/AUDUSD-D-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10249\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/AUDUSD-D-22102017-1024x500.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"500\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/NZDUSD-D-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10252\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/NZDUSD-D-22102017-1024x500.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"500\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCAD-D-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10253\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCAD-D-22102017-1024x500.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"500\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCHF-D-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10254\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCHF-D-22102017-1024x500.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"500\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDJPY-D-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10255\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDJPY-D-22102017-1024x500.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"500\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.4: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:</u>\r\n\r\nOnly two pieces of upcoming economic data interests me this week.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>CAD:</u></strong><u> BOC RATE STATEMENT &amp; PRESS CONFERENCE</u>.\r\n\r\nWednesday should be a very interesting day for the CAD currency.\r\n\r\nStephen Poloz, governor of the BOC has been true to his word and maintained credibility with the markets by doing what he said he was going to do.\r\n\r\nI expected a lot of “Transitory” to be used during the Press Conference. I would be astonished if he raised rates at the moment, however, I would be looking very closely to hear his views on a possible hike before the end of 2017.\r\n\r\nScotiaBank still believe that a hike is on the cards before the end of 2017. If their predictions are as good as the service in the local branches I would take this analysis with a pinch of salt!! Being fair, they are not too far away on their FX analysis, but there is always a first time to be well off!!\r\n\r\nI am currently SHORT the USD/CAD. Yes, I am that trader on the COT report!!\r\n\r\nI still expect Poloz to remain with hawkish undertones to his statement. He cannot, turn around after two rate increases and turn dovish. Mark Carney would without a second thought, but Poloz is cut with a different cloth.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>EUR:</u></strong><u> ECB RATE DECISION &amp; PRESS CONFERENCE.</u>\r\n\r\nFinally,\r\n\r\nMario Draghi gets to have his day on announcing the ECB future monetary policy to take the markets through 2018 and beyond.\r\n\r\nWill Draghi and the ECB pull it off? The want to start back on the road to normalization very slowly without the markets pricing everything ion from day one and destroying the EURO.\r\n\r\nGiven his past failures of being able to deliver the content and have the market reaction that he wants has always been the challenge facing the ECB President.\r\n\r\nIn the past, he has not been helped by “bubble and squeak” aka Wolfgang Schauble (ex. German Fin Minister) and Jens Weidman (Head of the Bundesbank), they would continually contradict and dispute Draghi’s path forward with ECB policy. (it’s all part of the EUROPEAN <strong><u>UNION</u> </strong>approach to harmony). If they were not enough the Austrian Central Bank Governor, who, is on the ECB council, Ewald Nowotny, would also contradict and screw up the messages from Draghi!\r\n\r\nSo, to say Mario Draghi has an uphill task would be an understatement.\r\n\r\nHowever, all is NOT lost.\r\n\r\nDraghi has been cute this time around.\r\n\r\nAhead of this week’s press conference the ECB has been giving over the past two weeks what I am viewing as forward guidance.\r\n\r\nInterest rates will remain accommodative long after the ECB bond buying (asset purchase) program has ended. Low rates will be policy for an extended period of time.\r\n\r\nThe Quantitative Easing (QE) program is being “Tapered”. Currently at €60 Billion is expected to reduce and the only answers that the market seeks confirmation on are to the following questions; new amount and for how long?\r\n\r\nThe problem that Draghi has is that beyond the top layer it goes much, much deeper.\r\n\r\n28 countries in the EU (presently), with 17 of these countries inside the EUROZONE single currency.\r\n\r\nYou simply cannot have a monetary policy for 17 countries operating centrally. There is no one size fits all.\r\n\r\nTo even get close, structural reforms are required country by country to be more aligned. This is NEVER going to happen. How in the name of sanity can you compare the economies of Germany with those of Malta, Greece or Slovenia? It is just NOT possible.\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>Therefore, aggressive policies will just NOT work. Maybe the ECB blueprint of accommodative policies to infinity is something that the markets will have to get their heads around.</li>\r\n 	<li>There is NO real inflation.</li>\r\n 	<li>Unemployment is high, especially youth unemployment in too many countries.</li>\r\n 	<li>Growth may be rising but it is patchy in some areas.</li>\r\n 	<li>So much of the positivity of late has been created with a fluctuating OIL price and this is making data better than it is.</li>\r\n 	<li>Negative rates may disappear. However, using the “old school” definition of interest rate normalization, I think is a dream for the ECB and there is no reason to increase interest rates unless there are signs of inflation, which there are NOT.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThis Thursday, is a big moment for Draghi and the ECB, his words will be dissected, put back together again and then re-dissected. I was hoping that in conjunction with the FED it would be easier to see the path to trade the EUR/USD. I am not sure. My initial thoughts were to go long EUR/USD, then it changed to short EUR/USD given the ECB forward guidance and the support in the DXY to buy USD.\r\n\r\nI closed my EUR/USD last Friday for a tiny profit. I am playing a waiting game now until after the ECB. I am sticking to cross rate pairs in the interim.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.5: HOW TO PLAY THE MARKET THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\nIf I knew the answer to that question, I would NOT be sitting in front of a bank of computer screens typing away…\r\n\r\nIt goes without saying the USD leads. This week however, we have two Central Banks reporting.\r\n\r\nThe BOC and ECB for differing reasons both have the markets attention. Both are involved in potentially big moves for the FX market.\r\n\r\nAdd to this the fact that the market is twitchy over the announcement of the new FED Chairperson and the overhang of geopolitical tensions in NORTH KOREA and IRAN. Plus, we also have BREXIT and CATALONIA to work with.\r\n\r\nTHE NZD is close to being toast. This is covered in much more detail later in this blog for my PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers.\r\n\r\nBasically, I would use cross rates until we see how the USD is going to react to the news when it finally comes through.\r\n\r\nIt is so tempting to trade EUR/USD and USD/JPY but in real terms the risks are too apparent at the moment.\r\n\r\nThe USD/JPY is no longer correlated to the Nikkei – huge RISK when it corrects or the Nikkei corrects either way it is impossible to gauge timelines and what happens first.\r\n\r\nThe EUR/USD is very just range bound itself because the markets are indecisive. It is winding up for a big move and I do not think that this will happen until the ECB announcement later this week. Bear in mind, a threat of Nuclear War, senior citizens being manhandled out of polling booth, Catalan Independence and BREXIT failings, have all failed to move this pair.  The change in FED chairperson has had more of an effect but even looking deeper into this, it’s been reasonably muted when all said and done.\r\n\r\nI got suckered into EUR/USD trades last week, it took me a couple of days to exit with a small profit. I just DO NOT see the reason to go mad into anything USD related, maybe the NZD/USD exempted until the dust settles on several issues. There are plenty of other opportunities.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is my own subscriber based Forex support service that offers subscribers my suggested trade set-ups and market commentaries.\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting the HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE tab.\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT 2017 PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nLAST WEEKS PIP TOTAL:             +1,112 net pips\r\nOCTOBER 2017 TO DATE:           +1,753 net pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE 2017:                    +9,159 net pips\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs on my website  <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nAlternatively, if you prefer to watch a video recording about the PREMIUM SERVICE, click the link below. You will be directed to a 40-minute webinar presentation entitled “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE”.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS ONLY:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4.1: TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\nLast week was my best trading week in 2017. Over a month’s pip gain objective was added inside of 48 hours.\r\n\r\nLast week: Net new pips added = 1,112 pips.\r\n\r\nMonth of October to date = 1,753 pips.\r\n\r\nYear To date pip total = 9,159 pips.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nYou make your own luck but I feel vindicated in my decision to remain CORE SHORT the NZD and to remain long AUD/NZD for the past two years or so. The AUD/NZD has been a very profitable pair for trading. Its moves are very easy to follow… most of the time!\r\n\r\nThe NZD move is not over (see below).\r\n\r\nWhat has pleased me the most, was to stick with the NZD crosses and take the losses a week last Friday. Whilst hedging has its risks, you can park the trade and wait if needs be. I have my PLAN for exiting and I work the plan moving forward. Having a PLAN when reading FX is essential. Without this you are running around like a headless chicken.\r\n\r\nI banked $$$ across JPY trades and other USD trades but as mentioned already in the blog, these for me at the current time have a RISK attached that can be avoided.\r\n\r\nMoving forward still has challenges attached. In my opinion it’s all about being cute with trade selection.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.2: SENTIMENT CHART,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMoving forward the big question is what happens with the USD.\r\n\r\nDoes it move up with USD strength or does it resume its move lower after this small retrace higher? If I knew the answer to this life would be just a blast!\r\n\r\nLooking longer term. The NZD economy is in for a complete makeover given the Labour/NZ first alliance. I have often said that the NZD/USD was over-priced and fair value was more like 0.6500. I have also stated on numerous occasions that fair value based on NAB papers for the AUD/NZD is much closer to 1.2000.\r\n\r\nMy immediate focus is the NZD currency.\r\n\r\n<u>SCENARIO 1:</u>\r\n\r\nThe USD moves higher with strength.\r\n\r\nThe EUR/USD hits c.1.1200\r\n\r\nThe GBP/USD hits c.1.2000\r\n\r\nThe AUD/USD moves back to c.0.7500\r\n\r\nThe NZD would get demolished to 0.6500 maybe even lower.\r\n\r\nThe NZD crosses would be on fire moving higher; AUD/NZD, EUR/USD and GBP/NZD\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>SCENARIO 2:</u>\r\n\r\nThe USD moves lower with weakness. It continues the trend lower that it has been in since the TRUMP inauguration.\r\n\r\nThe EUR/USD hits c.1.2500\r\n\r\nThe GBP/USD hits c.1.3600\r\n\r\nThe AUD/USD moves up to c.0.8200\r\n\r\nThis is also great for the NZD crosses and the NZD/USD may only see a life of maybe 100 pips, if that.\r\n\r\nObviously, nothing moves in straight lines but its all good news as far as I can see, as long we have a directional trade. The SENTIMENT will rule the direction.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nOn the sentiment chart below you will see that it’s almost a complete reversal in sentiment from last week but we are more aligned. USD strength is the key feature this week. Hold onto your hats though, TRUMP is bound to cause friction over the Janet Yellen replacement and God knows whatever he touches next. The sentiment chart could change very quickly.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/SENTIMENT-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10248\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/SENTIMENT-22102017-784x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"784\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.3: EXISTING CORE TRADES (PLANS &amp; STRATEGIES):</u>\r\n\r\nI am STILL bearish the CAD and NZD currencies, although I have reduced my CAD exposure quite a bit with a BOC Rate announcement and Press Conference this week. I have NOT ruled out a HEDGE or two with the CAD as I am a believer in higher CAD interest rates.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE CAD:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nCurrently, I am live the following: -\r\n\r\n3 x live short USD/CAD trades\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: Is to wait until after the BOC this Wednesday to decide what further actions are required. I may HEDGE or I may cut the trades and take a loss.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE NZD</u></strong>:\r\n\r\nCurrently I have 1 x live long AUD/NZD trades and 1 x EUR/NZD long trade (HEDGED) plus a EUR/NZD “OUT” trade for the hedge.\r\n\r\nPlus: - I have 3 x AUD/NZD trades and GBP/NZD and NZD/JPY limit order trades in position.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: I will be looking to add NZD trades across the board early this week.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.4: CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\nCURRENT LIVE TRADES:\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LIVE-TRADES-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10240\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LIVE-TRADES-22102017-954x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"954\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\nCURRENT LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LIMIT-ORDERS-22102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10239\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LIMIT-ORDERS-22102017-1024x954.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"954\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.5: FX BROKER NEWS with their MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\nNothing new to add here this week.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FINISHING LINE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5.1: WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you have read in this blog and would like the chance to win a FREE SUBSCRIPTION valued at CAD$150.00, all you need to do is subscribe to my FREE NEWSLETTER (this blog), by adding your email address on my welcome page just below my cube logo at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\n<u>5.2: PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTIONS:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you’ve read in this blog and should you want to go a stage further and subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE, this can be done on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the Tab SUBSCRIBE HERE.\r\n\r\nSubscribing to the PREMIUM SERVICE is not just about receiving a larger “DRIVE THRU” blog packed with more trading supporting information, my thoughts and ideas. There is much more to a subscription than those things. Check it all out under the tab HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nAlternatively, if you prefer to watch a video recording about the PREMIUM SERVICE, click the link below. You will be directed to a 40-minute webinar presentation entitled “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE”.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n5.3: CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\n\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\nBLOG VERSION: #152 PREMIUM SERVICE\r\n22nd October 2017\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','WILL THE ECB PULL IT OFF?','','publish','open','closed','','will-ecb-pull-off','','','2018-01-18 13:59:59','2018-01-18 18:59:59','',0,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?post_type=member_posts&#038;p=10262',0,'member_posts','',0),(9696,1,'2017-07-08 11:35:03','2017-07-08 16:35:03','&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nAfter the week before last week with its non-stop fun (my ex. work buddies would now be on the floor pissing themselves laughing at that opening remark), we had a rather more sedated look to the markets the week just gone. It was a holiday week in both Canada and the US, with the Independence Day holiday in many cases being extended by an extra day’s holiday being taken to make it a very long weekend for some traders. Thus, it was really a three-day week for near normal, bear in mind that it is also the summer, market participation.\r\n\r\nFrom my own trading perspective with a vacation and house move well in the rear-view mirror over 600 pips were added to the PREMIUM SERVICE total for 2017 in the three days on closed trades.\r\n\r\nI will always tell it how it is. Trying to focus on trading when in the middle of a house move and then setting up in a house plus a vacation around the same time, is practically impossible and I count myself as well disciplined.\r\n\r\nI am now settled into my new environment and the fruits of this are starting to come through in my set up and trades undertaken. I have never doubted my abilities to generate $$$ and pips and I am now fully engaged in playing catch up to meet my 10,000-pip objective for 2017. It is a tall order given the start to 2017, but I am 100% focused on the requirements ahead.\r\n\r\nAs I wrote to PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers last week, I trade for the long haul and I will NOT take on trades just for the sake of trades. Whilst I have an ambitious target to meet, I will not sacrifice my TRADING DISCIPLINES outlined in my TRADE PLAN. These I hold dear as they provide longevity in trading which is paramount to trading success in my opinion.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> LAST WEEK – MY TAKE ON SOME KEY EVENTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nDespite a shortened week from my perspective there were still a few takeaways of note.\r\n\r\nIn no particular order, here is what floated my boat last week.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>AUD (RBA):Philip Lowe delivered a very interesting statement, which to some extent caught some of the market off guard.From the prior week’s “Rock Star” adulation that followed Draghi, Poloz and Carney after they all turned hawkish, I think many pundits expected the same from Philip Lowe.The RBA remained neutral and the AUD weakened across the board. The takeaways that stood out for me were: -\r\n\r\nPolicy is consistent with: -\r\n\r\nGrowth and inflation targets\r\nIndicators of Labour Demand remain mixed.\r\nEmployment Growth has been stronger over recent months.\r\nSigns that the housing market is starting to cool.\r\nHousing Debt has outpaced the slow growth in incomes.\r\nA rising AUD$ would complicate the economic adjustment.\r\n\r\nBasically, it was a do not “Rock the Boat” approach.\r\n\r\nAustralian exports are not going to argue with the approach as the appreciating AUD$ is a pain.</li>\r\n 	<li>GBP (PMi, Industrial and Manufacturing Output data plus Mark Carney):All three PMi figures were misses on consensus expectations (Manufacturing (54.3), Construction (54.8) and Services (53.4)).Now, I am not shouting from the rooftops saying that the UK economy is about to fall off a cliff, but I am so damn close to doing so. It was a crap week for UK economic data.The PMI data was all well above the “50 level” but maybe now just over a year after the referendum vote was taken, the concerns are starting to creep in.\r\n\r\nThe Industrial (0.1% versus 0.4% expected) and Manufacturing (0.2% versus 0.5% expected) data released on Friday last week were just poor. Whilst they are by no means top tier data releases the simple fact is so much UK data is poor it should have an impact. (It’s had an impact on my thoughts!).</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">After the BREXIT vote in June 2016 the UK economy looked positive in fact quite resilient but 2017 is the opposite. The BREXIT uncertainty has come through in most aspects of the economy.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">I realise that the recent MPC vote was 5-3 and not 7-1 as expected. Carney was dovish in his Mansion House breakfast speech and then a week later in Sintra, Portugal he was hawkish vis-à-vis the BOE need to look at interest rates rising soon…. really.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">When is soon?  For me it’s anything from a week or so to a few months. For my boy Labrador, Ozzy, soon equals now, in fact in his language it means yesterday!</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">I just don’t get Carney. His forward guidance pre-BREXIT was shite to put it mildly and frankly he just digs huge holes for himself to fall into. He will probably flip-flop again against the backdrop of this week’s data.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">I am looking at pressure on wages, household spending, retail sales, consumer confidence and housing in the UK as well as last week’s data and I am NOT getting a warm fuzzy feeling at all. Carney’s flip-flopping made feck all sense to me. It looked like a childish “TRUMPLIKE” action because at the ECB Economic Forum both Draghi (ECB) and Poloz (BOC) were both very hawkish about the future.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">I just cannot see the BOE raising rates this year and probably not well into 2018. There are just too many BREXIT uncertainties combined with poor economic data. Never mind Haldane’s economists view on inflation.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">I think that it is quite simple. There is just too much to risk with BREXIT.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">Was it David Bloom (Global Head FX Strategy) HSBC who predicted cable back at 1.2000 and EUR/GBP at parity a few weeks ago?</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">Hmmn… good calls maybe!</p>\r\n\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>USD (FOMC Meeting Minutes, PMi data, ADP and NFP):Indecision… indecision.Personally in my opinion it’s obvious that the FED cannot agree on peripheral policy moving forward.Balance sheet tapering is the new buzz phrase now.\r\n\r\nFrankly, I believe the FED are going to continue moving forward relentlessly in their normalization policy to ensure that they have tools in the box to use as we head into another global worldwide recession. With this move in play who gives a f**k about Balance Sheet tapering.\r\n\r\nThe TRUMP administration has been bogged down by a dysfunctional party line divided Washington D.C. not helped by the fact that TRUMP himself continues to score own goals with his twitter feed in the name of keeping his core support informed.\r\n\r\nThe “ART OF THE DEAL” has been beaten by career politicians who couldn’t give a shit. The draining of the swamp was not as straightforward as he thought and he has been largely ineffective. The Washington machine has won but at what cost?\r\n\r\nPMi data was good last week with consensus levels being beaten with both Manufacturing (57.8) and Non-Manufacturing (57.4) data. This shows life in the economy. However, Autos, Housing, Retail Sales and Confidence drives the “Ultimate Consumer society” and these are very mixed to say the least.\r\n\r\nADP employment was a miss 158k versus 185k expected.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">NFP data was 222k versus 179k expected, once again the ADP and NFP numbers show no consistency and leading up to NFP U.S. data was NOT supportive of a beat! It was the average Hourly Rate that caused concern for the markets as the data was released. It remained at a constant 0.2%, the markets were expecting growth to 0.3%.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">The market reaction was in my own opinion very minimal to the data. Without doubt the “hourlies” stunted the market reaction.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">I find it very hard with U.S. labour statistics as they are always being revised. They should buy a computer like mine and get a guy in from “O and M” to sort out a reporting system that works properly the first time. It is just a bloody nonsense that these numbers are never accurate. Here’s an idea… report the data in week two of the month rather than week one!! Try to give yourselves some credibility.</p>\r\n\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>BREXIT:The negotiations have started in Brussels. Nothing much at all is being leaked. This surprises me, or maybe they are still agreeing on what pens to use on what size of paper?</li>\r\n 	<li>BOJ (Kuroda and Central Bank comments on Bond Purchases):Bucking the trend of other high profile Central Bank governors, the BOJ re-asserted its commitment at all costs to continue with its BOND purchasing program. The BOJ remains DOVISH.</li>\r\n 	<li>OIL:The helter-skelter price action continues. First bearish, then bullish and into the close of last week reversing the bullish move to move bearish once again.All this with a backdrop of conflict, mis-trust and tension in the middle east.\r\nSaudi Arabia – Qatar, Saudi Arabia – Iran, Saudi Arabia – Yemen and Egypt – Libya.Even myself; the most bearish OIL person on the planet, because of simple supply and demand economic theory, would concede that maybe a spike higher given the tension could be argued in favour of price action towards $55-$60 a barrel.\r\n\r\nWhat a strange world we live in.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU – LIVE WEBINAR:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nThere is a summer break with my LIVE WEBINARS they will return in the fall / autumn.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ECON-DATA-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9665\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ECON-DATA-09072017-1024x998.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"998\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>MY THOUGHTS ON THE ECONOMIC DATA EVENTS THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>BOC: This is the pick of the week for me based upon the recent hawkish sentiment change from Stephen Poloz (Governor BOC).The big question is of course, is he ready to sanction a rate increase this week?Analysts believe so, and a 0.25% increase to 0.75% has been predicted.Can you imagine what would happen to the CAD pairs should he not raise rates? Since his deputy announced a couple of weeks ago that the dovish approach could be ending, the USD/CAD has fallen from 1.3600 to sub 1.3000.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">If the rate hike happens, is there more left to fall? Dead right there is; I think that 1.2760 is an obvious target.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">However, should he not hike now, what would happen?</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">In my opinion I think we could see a fast retrace to around 1.3250, but this could be tempered by the accompanying commentary and again with the press conference 75 minutes later.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">I think that the ramifications of not raising rates would be incredible and although I am not positioned short USD/CAD etc. at the moment, I hope to have positions in profit with stop losses at break-even just in case… you just never know.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">Many Central Bank governors appear to suffer from “premature verbage”. It is quite a targeted disease.</p>\r\n\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li>JANET YELLEN – Semi-annual Monetary Policy Report:I hate writing this but we are back on a “will she / won’t she” raise rates again this year news cycle.Just a word of caution her prepared speech is released to the markets 90 minutes prior to her taking her seat to deliver it and then ask questions.</li>\r\n 	<li>USD (Producer and Consumer prices / Retail Sales):Thursday’s and Friday’s data will be interesting to follow.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">These will be crucial to the markets re the hike or no further hike scenarios, however I feel the FED is raising regardless one more time this year, probably in December.</p>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">Time will tell.</p>\r\n<u>USD MAJORS – SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS TO NOTE THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/TCHART-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9666\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/TCHART-09072017-1024x855.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"855\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n\r\n<strong>EUR/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/EURUSD-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9675\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/EURUSD-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>GBP/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/GBPUSD-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9676\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/GBPUSD-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>AUD/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/AUDUSD-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9674\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/AUDUSD-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>NZD/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/NZDUSD-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9677\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/NZDUSD-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CAD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCAD-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9678\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCAD-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CHF:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCHF-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9679\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCHF-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/JPY:</strong>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDJPY-D-09072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9680\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDJPY-D-09072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE?</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber based Forex support service offering not just trade set-ups, but a bunch of different support services that differentiates the PREMIUM SERVICE from other providers, my competitors, that operate in the same space.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\nSo; if nothing else, I tell it how it is. I am currently about 50% of my target for this time of the year. I had a poor start to the year and I am now following a vacation and house move in recovery mode.\r\n\r\nIn 2014, 2015 and 2016 I beat my 10,000 pip per annum objective. There is nothing stopping me doing the same this year as my house move and vacation are both behind me. I will be trading pretty much full time from now on through to the end of 2017.\r\n\r\nIf you want to be a part of what I hope will be a storming end to 2017, login at my website and get subscribed. I mean business from here on in.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nMONTH TO DATE:  +675 pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE:      +3,080 pips\r\n\r\nIf you would like to know a little more about THE PREMIUM SERVICE please feel free to watch the following 40-minute video via the link below:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://bit.ly/PremServiceQ217\">http://bit.ly/PremServiceQ217</a>\r\n\r\nPLEASE NOTE: the above video is best viewed using a Google Chrome browser.\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><strong>WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION?</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIf you would like to be in the monthly draw to win a “FREE 10-WEEK SUBSCRIPTION” to the PREMIUM SERVICE, valued at CAD$500.00, all you should do is subscribe to receive this FREE NEWSLETTER on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nThis can be done as follows: -\r\n\r\nOn my welcome page just below my cube logo is where you complete your subscription.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"7\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:\r\n</strong>(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"8\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE SOAPBOX:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>\r\nARE WE APPROACHING THE TIPPING POINT?</strong>\r\n\r\nSince returning from vacation in New Zealand and Australia, my SOAPBOX titles have been: -\r\n\r\nARE THE GAME KEEPERS NOW POACHERS?\r\nGBP – IS IT A LONG OR SHORT TRADE?\r\nIS THE CENTRAL BANK DIVERGENCE TRADE FINALLY IN PLAY?\r\n\r\nAll three items have generated a lot of likes and a few comments as usual, most nice but a few not so nice.\r\n\r\nNow; either I have lost the plot, which could be the case, or economically things are really motoring along and policies are changing so fast that unease is being created in the marketplace?\r\n\r\nAlmost as soon as I wrote about “The Divergence trade” Draghi, Poloz and Carney all came out HAWKISH.\r\n\r\nI analyzed the cable and its cross-rates and within a week or so we have Carney “flip-flop”.\r\n\r\nFinally, the Central banks except BOC, walked back hawkish comments in the aftermath of the reaction to the change in sentiment. This shows to me the dilemma the central banks are in on the basis that they want to alert the markets of potential policy changes in the pipeline, but do not want the currency fluctuations that go with any announcement, which I can understand.\r\n\r\nNow I am not raising the issue that as soon as I write in the DRIVE THRU the market sentiment reverses because I have raised an issue. I am writing stating that as a FUNDAMENTAL trader the fundamentals that I am working with are now changing, and that, I believe we are approaching the TIPPING POINT for sentiment / momentum / central bank policy and reactions to economic data shifting. These items alone won’t bring us over the edge but in conjunction with a major geopolitical event… dare I even say it BLACK SWAN event.\r\n\r\nJust based on recent factors we have noticed attitudes and reactions are changing. In the past, we would have seen big moves on geopolitical events now the markets are largely muted. This is complacency in my opinion. Trying to place my thoughts logically for this section was a bit challenging, I hope you can follow without too many re-reads.\r\n\r\nLet me elaborate a bit, bear with me: -\r\n\r\nThere are many examples of this primarily with the BOE through the “flip flopper” and the ECB through Mario Draghi and his hangers on (Wiedmann and Nowotny) over a potential taper tantrum and interest rate policy in the medium–term amongst other issues.\r\n\r\nHowever, I prefer to use Janet Yellen and the FED/FOMC as my example, otherwise I will have pages and pages of stuff.\r\n\r\nGo back in time to Ben Bernanke, then add on Yellen’s tenure up to the TRUMP presidential victory in 2016. I think that it would be safe to say that the FED telegraphed every move to the markets… absolutely no surprises. Every piece of data was analyzed and reviewed over and over vis-à-vis context and the impact on the market was scrutinized left, right and centre.\r\n\r\nWith Janet Yellen this policy of total transparency continued up to the FED press conference in December 2016.\r\n\r\nBased upon the backdrop of a Pseudo republican victory via “THE DONALD” it all changed.\r\n\r\nThe markets got bulled up about tax cuts, infrastructure spending, less controls on medical costs as it was a policy to repeal Obamacare (The Affordable Care Act). Regulation on Wall Street would be reduced and monies owned by multi-national US companies lodged outside of the US would be repatriated back under a tax incentive scheme. Companies would be encouraged through lower taxation to retain a U.S. presence instead of moving outside of the U.S. because of high local taxes and cheaper labour costs elsewhere.\r\n\r\nI think that I am correct in saying 6 months in and “THE DONALD” has achieved zero on that list.\r\n\r\nHowever, was the FED also bulled up and wanting to get ahead of the curve that it had been so many times criticized of being behind on?\r\n\r\nWithout doubt this year with a backdrop of very mixed, sometimes poor U.S. economic data the FED has marched on with rate increases regardless.\r\n\r\nIt is out of character for Janet Yellen, who frankly sounds DOVISH even when she is delivering HAWKISH sentiment.\r\n\r\nHas this complete change of policy by the FED lit a fire under other central banks?\r\n\r\nI think that The FED’s outright disregard for data dependency of late has created a sea change. However, notably, the BOJ under Kuroda has signaled that the support to the market through bond purchasing will continue. The backdrop to this very recent BOJ announcement was that Kuroda has no fresh ideas and should be replaced. The RBA under relatively new governor, Philip Lowe left policy neutral last week when many were calling for a more hawkish tone.\r\n\r\nIs it now a case of, the FED is changing policy regardless of data so we should all change?\r\n\r\nI would have thought most central banks could get away with a lag in timing hence my piece about CENTRAL BANK DIVERGENCE four weeks ago. After all the divergence for as long as possible should help home exporters and dis-advantage the U.S. exporters at the same time. A little bit of that can’t be bad… I would have thought.\r\n\r\nLooking at the macro level it looks like a sea change is in effect and we are about to change fundamentally.\r\n\r\nWhilst I talk in the present… the now; do not forget we are still dealing with culture and a central bank’s monetary policies are slow to turn around, we are in 2017 there will be communications and a gentle feed into any changes. The wham-bam-thank-you-mam approach of especially Mario Draghi will be re-thought and a more leisurely delivery in bite sized chunks will be adopted, I am certain of this.\r\n\r\nSo; how does it translate into forex trading?\r\n\r\nFX is noted as being a future pricing instrument. As we know, the markets react, then re-think and correct if required.\r\n\r\nThe FED with its present approach in normal circumstances from my perspective tell you that the USD will strengthen and challenge 100.00 once again with US $ index (DXY). In fact, the USD cannot get out of its own way… why?\r\n\r\nThe single currency was hit so hard but is so resilient it never hit parity, never mind sub parity as some banks were calling. Economically the EUROZONE was so poor (it still is in some countries) it was beaten up so bad, it has the greatest opportunity given the TRUMP administration ineffectiveness to bounce back. In 2017, the markets decided that at some stage the ECB will turn hawkish so the single currency has been generally supported at the expense of the DXY moving back to 100.00 once again.\r\n\r\nThe result of all this putting the shenanigans to one side is wide trading ranges. If you look across most currency pairs especially with the USD majors we are in trading ranges: -\r\n\r\nEUR/USD: 1.1200 – 1.1450\r\nGBP/USD: 1.2600 – 1.3050\r\nAUD/USD: 0.7300 – 0.7750\r\nNZD/USD: 0.6820 - 0.7350\r\nUSD/CHF: 0.9550 – 1.0150\r\nUSD/JPY: 108.00 – 114.50\r\n\r\nThese ranges can be described as large ranges but you can also mark off mini-ranges within these levels that contain the price action. I know, we are in the summer doldrums of trading and ranges within ranges are commonplace. I agree with this but there’s more going on in the peripheral and reactions to potential disturbing geopolitical events are muted to say the least.\r\n\r\nTherefore, what I see is that the TIPPING POINT will be a bit of a domino event triggered by a geopolitical event, the bigger than normal central bank policy decision, or, a governmental policy decision that shakes the market so much that even these broad trading ranges noted above are broken with the result being a major shift in policy both for governments and central banks. This creates a market panic.\r\n\r\nSo let me drill this thought down a little more. Triggers starting this domino effect could be such as the following: -\r\n\r\nNORTH KOREA nuclear flexing.\r\nMIDDLE EASTERN tensions over spilling into OIL supplies grinding to a halt.\r\nA NEW WORLD ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN leading to recession.\r\n\r\nI am sure you can think of a few more items for the list, but I hope you get my point. There is so much uncertainty and lack of clarity dotted about, I believe we are prime for a big move.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"9\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #244 FREE NEWSLETTER VERSION\r\nDATE: 9th July 2017.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','ARE WE APPROACHING THE TIPPING POINT?','','inherit','closed','closed','','9684-revision-v1','','','2017-07-08 11:35:03','2017-07-08 16:35:03','',9684,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/9684-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(9731,1,'2017-07-22 06:30:44','2017-07-22 11:30:44','','ECON DATA 23072017','','inherit','open','closed','','econ-data-23072017','','','2017-07-22 06:51:52','2017-07-22 11:51:52','',9756,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ECON-DATA-23072017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(9699,1,'2017-07-14 16:13:18','2017-07-14 21:13:18','','ECON DATA 16072017','','inherit','open','closed','','econ-data-16072017','','','2017-07-15 06:47:42','2017-07-15 11:47:42','',9717,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ECON-DATA-16072017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(9700,1,'2017-07-14 16:13:23','2017-07-14 21:13:23','','T CHART 16072017','','inherit','open','closed','','t-chart-16072017','','','2017-07-15 06:48:07','2017-07-15 11:48:07','',9717,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/T-CHART-16072017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(9701,1,'2017-07-14 16:13:29','2017-07-14 21:13:29','','DXY 16072017','','inherit','open','closed','','dxy-16072017','','','2017-07-15 06:51:21','2017-07-15 11:51:21','',9717,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/DXY-16072017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(9710,1,'2017-07-14 16:14:50','2017-07-14 21:14:50','','AUDUSD D 16072017','','inherit','open','closed','','audusd-d-16072017','','','2017-07-15 06:48:55','2017-07-15 11:48:55','',9717,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/AUDUSD-D-16072017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(9711,1,'2017-07-14 16:14:55','2017-07-14 21:14:55','','EURUSD D 16072017','','inherit','open','closed','','eurusd-d-16072017','','','2017-07-15 06:48:34','2017-07-15 11:48:34','',9717,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/EURUSD-D-16072017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(9712,1,'2017-07-14 16:14:59','2017-07-14 21:14:59','','GBPUSD D 16072017','','inherit','open','closed','','gbpusd-d-16072017','','','2017-07-15 06:48:45','2017-07-15 11:48:45','',9717,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/GBPUSD-D-16072017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(9713,1,'2017-07-14 16:15:05','2017-07-14 21:15:05','','NZDUSD D 16072017','','inherit','open','closed','','nzdusd-d-16072017','','','2017-07-15 06:49:09','2017-07-15 11:49:09','',9717,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/NZDUSD-D-16072017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(9714,1,'2017-07-14 16:15:09','2017-07-14 21:15:09','','USDCAD D 16072017','','inherit','open','closed','','usdcad-d-16072017','','','2017-07-15 06:49:24','2017-07-15 11:49:24','',9717,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCAD-D-16072017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(9715,1,'2017-07-14 16:15:13','2017-07-14 21:15:13','','USDCHF D 16072017','','inherit','open','closed','','usdchf-d-16072017','','','2017-07-15 06:49:45','2017-07-15 11:49:45','',9717,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCHF-D-16072017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(9716,1,'2017-07-14 16:15:17','2017-07-14 21:15:17','','USDJPY D 16072017','','inherit','open','closed','','usdjpy-d-16072017','','','2017-07-15 06:49:58','2017-07-15 11:49:58','',9717,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDJPY-D-16072017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(9717,1,'2017-07-15 06:56:38','2017-07-15 11:56:38','&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nWell that was an interesting week to say the least. On Wednesday night, I was convinced that the FED had decided upon a change of direction with its monetary policy and by midafternoon on Thursday I was less certain.\r\n\r\nI am now asking myself if these policy announcements followed by walk backs by Central bank leaders are coordinated or is it just pressure of the job or is it a bit of incompetence or both. Whatever way you want to describe it I would use the word unconvincing.\r\n\r\nAll we want as traders, especially with FX is clarity. We couldn’t give a rat’s hairy ass if its positive, negative, bullish, bearish, hawkish or dovish; we just want clarity.\r\n\r\nI am now 100% convinced that we do not get clarity because the Central Bank governors / presidents are as much in dark as most people as to what is actually happening in their own economies. Everything now is so inter-linked we live in different times than that of Trichet and Greenspan and the old-school approaches are no longer relevant.\r\n\r\nLast week I wrote about a TIPPING POINT. I think we are there a lot faster than I thought and it will be FX that starts it.\r\n\r\nMore is at play now that just gamekeepers turning poachers and doves becoming hawks. I see a possible major RE-STRUCTURE and RE-ALIGNMENT taking place in the FX market. It has the added spice of possibly occurring during the summer when trading volumes are low and markets thin and illiquid.\r\n\r\nI also believe that the FED was the final nail in the coffin, the straw that broke the camel’s back to make this a real possibility.\r\n\r\nMore of this in the “SOAPBOX” later.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> LAST WEEK – MY TAKE ON SOME KEY EVENTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nDespite a shortened week from my perspective there were still a few takeaways of note.\r\n\r\nIn no particular order, here is what floated my boat last week.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>CAD (BOC):\r\n\r\nI have been critical of Stephen Poloz in the past through lack of decision, being far too “CONSERVATIVE” in approach, which is the Canadian way irrespective of political persuasion.\r\n\r\nAbout a month ago, Poloz’s Senior Deputy Governor, Carolyn Wilkins (In Canada, we love full employment so there’s probably a great hierarchy, family tree spreadsheet inside the BOC), announced that the time to tighten BOC policy and look to raise rates was basically approaching. The USD/CAD exchange rate fell from the 1.3500 area and now sits circa. 1.2700. That is an 8 cents drop. Unbelievable; and in normal circumstances I would have said equivalent to a about a 1% -1.5% interest rate change. The BOC raised by 0.25% and it could be a one and done event this year.\r\n\r\nFair play; one of the biggest issues and maybe reasoning behind this rate rise had to be the housing bubbles in Toronto and Vancouver.  8 cents move in the exchange rate is the equivalent to a tax on house purchases for overseas buyers, who are really to blame for the housing bubble, squeezing prices up. Their cost to fund CAD$ has increased by the 8-cent move.\r\n\r\nI expected on Thursday the day after the USD/CAD, GBP/CAD and EUR/CAD were slaughtered for a bounce back of sorts. Of sorts are the words to use. On Thursday feck all of a spike higher. The CAD languished around its lows. CAD strength is back.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>GBP (Employment Data, Export numbers and BREXIT):\r\n\r\nA much better week this week for the UK data releases.\r\n\r\nEmployment numbers were good and Export figures positive. Deputy governor Broadbent also went on the wires and said that now is NOT the time to be raising interest rates. No doubt this support got him a big kiss from Mark Carney.\r\n\r\nBREXIT negotiations are still on-going and leaks are almost nonexistent. Either the wine being drunk is so damn good those involved are incapable of speech to report on progress or they have done feck all but just look across the table at each other. Boris Johnson (UK Foreign Minister and BREXIT champion) did offer up a quote during the week, when in reference to the costs of the UK divorce from the EUROPEAN UNION, he said that the numbers quoted by the EU were extortion and that the EU could whistle for it to be paid!\r\n\r\nSo matters are progressing nicely</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>USD (Janet Yellen Bi-Annual testimony, CPi and Retail Sales):\r\n\r\nWell she certainly surprised with her more DOVISH statement to the hill on the state of the FED and its Monetary Policy approach and progress towards its objectives. More about this later in the “SOAPBOX”\r\n\r\nWith regards to the CPI and Retail Sales data, it was really poor and the USD was taken to the woodshed and smacked.\r\n\r\nThe future does not look good for USD bulls.</li>\r\n 	<li>EUR (ECB):\r\n\r\nIt has been announced that Mario Draghi (ECB President) will attend this years FED symposium in Jackson Hole.\r\n\r\nThis announcement has fueled speculation that he may use this event to warm the markets up to the future of the ECB bond buying program. ECB TAPERING is the hot topic at the moment, we had all the shenanigans at the ECB forum last month in Sintra, Portugal when Draghi’s hawkish comments were attempted to be walked back by “unnamed sources!” … my arse; that was the ECB who pooped their pants when they saw the EUR reaction to a tightening policy.\r\n\r\nI would say invest in “Depends**” because the entire staff at the ECB will be wearing them when the symposium takes place.\r\n\r\nI would have thought that the ECB would stay tight lipped and say nothing or do nothing until the year end. If Draghi puts one word out of place, never mind an entire sentence, the single currency will rip higher on the mere mention of tightening never mind a TAPERING exit program.\r\n\r\n<em>** For those of you who live outside of North America.\r\n\r\nHere is the google search for Depend (for men and women)\r\n\r\nTake Control of Leaks by Finding the Protection That\'s Right for You. Fast Absorption · All Around Leg Elastics · Odour Control · Great Protection · Increased Flexibility Types: Fit-Flex®, Real Fit® Briefs, Depend® Shield, Adjustable Underwear, Protection with Tabs</em></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU – LIVE WEBINAR:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThere is a summer break with my LIVE WEBINARS they will return in the fall / autumn.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ECON-DATA-16072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9699\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ECON-DATA-16072017-1024x990.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"990\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>MY THOUGHTS ON THE ECONOMIC DATA EVENTS THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>GBP: It is a big week data wise for the UK. We have CPi, Mark Carney’s testimony to the parliamentary committee on Inflation and Retail Sales.\r\n\r\nI am still very cagey trading the cable at the moment. My bias was upside but the economic data of late has been poor switching my bias to sell. This week’s data will be confirmation of my switch in bias or just confusion.</li>\r\n 	<li>EUR: Mario Draghi has his Press Conference this week, when all eyes and ears will be on “TAPERING” clues. Whatever happens, the single currency will have its usual wild roller-coaster ride up and down for a couple of hours. I just cannot see Draghi committing to anything or hinting at anything. It is the status quo for me, especially with the Jackson Hole symposium attendance being confirmed all attention will be focused there.</li>\r\n 	<li>AUD: Jobs data this week. Good numbers will confirm the AUD breakout and poor numbers will bring back the sceptics. It could be an either way report. Winter employment data releases are always a bit of a lottery as seasonal employment comes into play.\r\n\r\nWe also get at the beginning of the week the last set of minutes from the RBA. If you recall, the last statement from the RBA disappointed the market and sent the AUD/USD lower by 100+ pips because the RBA stayed neutral. This could be interesting to read.\r\n\r\nWill it affect the strengthening AUD that we have seen since Janet Yellen’s testimony earlier in the week?</li>\r\n 	<li>JPY: No doubt a yawn fest. I cannot see the BOJ saying or doing anything new except committing to the existing QE and QQE programs that are in place.</li>\r\n 	<li>CAD: CPi and Retail Sales data is released on Friday. More good numbers would in my opinion send the USD/CAD towards the next support area of 1.2300.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>USD MAJORS – SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS TO NOTE THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/T-CHART-16072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9700\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/T-CHART-16072017-1024x856.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"856\" /></a>\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n<strong>\r\nEUR/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/EURUSD-D-16072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9711\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/EURUSD-D-16072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>GBP/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/GBPUSD-D-16072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9712\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/GBPUSD-D-16072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>AUD/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/AUDUSD-D-16072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9710\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/AUDUSD-D-16072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>NZD/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/NZDUSD-D-16072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9713\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/NZDUSD-D-16072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CAD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCAD-D-16072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9714\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCAD-D-16072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CHF:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCHF-D-16072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9715\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCHF-D-16072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/JPY:</strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDJPY-D-16072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9716\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDJPY-D-16072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n\r\n</strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE?</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber based Forex support service offering not just trade set-ups, but a bunch of different support services that differentiates the PREMIUM SERVICE from other providers, my competitors, that operate in the same space.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><u>PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">So; if nothing else, I tell it how it is. I am currently about 50% of my target for this time of the year. I had a poor start to the year and I am now following a vacation and house move in recovery mode.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">In 2014, 2015 and 2016 I beat my 10,000 pip per annum objective. There is nothing stopping me doing the same this year as my house move and vacation are both behind me. I will be trading pretty much full time from now on through to the end of 2017.\r\n\r\nIf you want to be a part of what I hope will be a storming end to 2017, login at my website and get subscribed. I mean business from here on in.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nMONTH TO DATE:  +1,288 pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE:      +3,693 pips\r\n</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">If you would like to know a little more about THE PREMIUM SERVICE please feel free to watch the following 40-minute video via the link below:</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"http://bit.ly/PremServiceQ217\">http://bit.ly/PremServiceQ217</a></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">PLEASE NOTE: the above video is best viewed using a Google Chrome browser.\r\n\r\n\r\n</p>\r\n\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><strong>WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION?</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIf you would like to be in the monthly draw to win a “FREE 10-WEEK SUBSCRIPTION” to the PREMIUM SERVICE, valued at CAD$500.00, all you should do is subscribe to receive this FREE NEWSLETTER on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nThis can be done as follows: -\r\n\r\nOn my welcome page just below my cube logo is where you complete your subscription.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"7\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:\r\n</strong>(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\nWe added 613 pips to the PREMIUM SERVICE annual total last week. The tally is starting to gather momentum. I am very happy with this, it would have been a lot more but I had three or four poor loss making trades last week.\r\n\r\nI have spoken with a couple of you via SKYPE review meetings last week on the changing FUNDAMENTALS following Janet Yellen’s testimony in D.C. last week.\r\n\r\nLast week I talked about a TIPPING POINT.\r\n\r\nI see this change in direction of FED policy as a bit of a game changer. At least I think it’s a change. Wednesday, it was, Thursday she walked it back a bit. I am referring to moving away from normalization in favour of selling off “TAPERING” the FED balance sheet. This move has fueled the strengthening in particular, the commodity currencies.\r\n\r\nSo many pairs are now in breakout territory against key resistance levels or close to key support levels. I see this as a potential STRUCTURAL SHIFT (more later about these thoughts) … hence my hesitation after Yellen. I was waiting on a further walk back / clarification from the FED. All I saw was “Kaplan” stating that a gradual unwinding of the FED balance sheet should have a limited effect on the markets and that weak inflation is transitory… just the usual bollocks bullsh*t.\r\nThe poor CPi and Retail Sales data that was released on Friday pushed the limits on many pairs even more, so I decided to wait for the weekly closing candles to get a proper picture from which to move into this week with trade set ups.\r\n\r\nFUNDAMENTALLY; I do see a sea change happening, the USD is on its way lower in my opinion, the question is of course for how long? That depends on the FED policy of course. If Yellen stops raising rates in favour of balance sheet tapering this does change my views moving forward.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>TRADE ENVIRONMENT:</u>\r\n\r\nI stated last week that Janet Yellen’s Capitol Hill testimony would set the “Tone” for the markets moving forward. It has, but not in the way that I was expecting.\r\n\r\nWith a lot of poor U.S. data emerging and the TRUMP administration floundering going from one media disaster to the next, with gross inconsistencies and lies that are easy to prove being exposed, I can only think that the USD is in for a severe caning (see DXY chart below)\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/DXY-16072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9701\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/DXY-16072017-1024x503.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"503\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nFrom one of my last LIVE WEBINARS, in fact, I think that it was the final one before my summer break, I showed this WEEKLY USD$ (DXY) INDEX chart and said that if things got tough for the USD this potential bear flag could play out… well things are getting tough for the USD and the bear flag is in play with a measured move to 94.58. It could go further. At the moment, there is no love for the USD.\r\n\r\nTherefore, moving forward at least in the short to medium term I can see more USD weakness. My issue as always is, will this be across the board? That is the $64,000.00 question.\r\n\r\nI can see commodity currencies having a field day as well as the single currency which is the driver of the DXY. A lot depends on equities to gauge the JPY reaction, and, of course, BREXIT for the GBP.\r\n\r\nIt’s all change… bear with me for a couple of days.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>CORE TRADES:\r\n\r\n</u>This may take a few days. At the moment, as you would have noticed late Friday I added a lot of trades around the AUD which is in breakout territory. If we see a move above 0.7850 stick this week, I will be adding aggressively. The RBA Meeting Minutes will be my first key, with the jobs data later in the week.\r\n\r\nIn addition to the AUD completing the week at highs, so did the GBP and the CAD. The GBP I am not convinced about but the CAD to me is on a death spiral. I looked at a longer-term chart the other day on possible measured moves of the USD/CAD and it was 1.1500... yikes.\r\n\r\nThere are plenty of opportunities we just need patience to get there.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\nPREMIUM SERVICE - TRADES REVIEW<strong>:</strong></u>\r\n\r\nCURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE - LIVE TRADES:\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/LIVE-16072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9703\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/LIVE-16072017-978x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"978\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\nCURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE – LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/LIMIT-ORDERS-16072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9702\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/LIMIT-ORDERS-16072017-918x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"918\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"8\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE SOAPBOX:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong> AN FX STRUCTURAL RE-ALIGNMENT IS ON THE WAY </strong></p>\r\nLast week I wrote about how I believed were we were approaching a TIPPING POINT in the markets. Whilst I believe 100% in what I write, I did not think that one week later we would be at said TIPPING POINT, in fact, in my opinion, we are at what is a STRUCTURAL RE-ALIGNMENT.\r\n\r\nWhat do I mean?\r\n\r\nLet me start with some pre-amble, the much-awaited Janet Yellen bi-annual testimony on Capitol Hill, which must have left many people shaking their heads wondering WTF. I found her unconvincing and dare I suggest this but it’s not going to be her problem to fix as her tenure is up early next year and her replacement will be the seat on the hill in front of the politicians.\r\n\r\nI struggle with these U.S. committees, no one really asks questions and if they do they cut the answer short and most of the time we just get statements of position rather than questions. It’s all rather amateurish at times. Some of the committee members were more interested in scoring party points than actually being focused on the matter in hand. It does however, parade out in front of the world allegedly the best representatives of the people that the U.S. has… God help us all.\r\n\r\nMy thoughts / highlights / lowlights on the two-day testimony were: -\r\n\r\nINFLATION:\r\n\r\nWhat inflation?\r\n\r\nShe said that Inflation should rebound, but the FED could alter policy if inflation softness persists. Basically, she is stuck with the 2% goal that hasn’t been achieved for, I don’t know 5 years, 7 years?\r\n\r\nIf I had set targets like this back in the corporate world that I did not achieve never mind beat, I would be out on my arse looking for a new job!\r\n\r\nHer commentary was along the lines of FED POLICY should see the objective hit in the next few years. FED POLICY so far hasn’t done it, why on earth would anyone think that the FED has suddenly found the secret sauce?\r\n\r\n\r\nFED BALANCE SHEET, INTEREST RATES and MONETARY POLICY:\r\n\r\nThis is what caused all the twitchy bottoms.\r\n\r\nWith regards to monetary policy, she was DOVISH.  Although the Fed will begin TAPERING its balance sheet and although it will continue to gradually raise interest rates, interest rates will no longer be as high as before as seen in previous economic cycles and if inflation does NOT perk up the FED will slow down on raising rates.\r\n\r\nThe FED intends to raise rates as unemployment rates keep falling. Hmmn\r\nOn Day Two, Janet Yellen basically re-worked the same as day one although she did walk back comments made about whether she believed that there would ever be another great Financial crisis?\r\nDay one it was No.\r\n\r\nDay two we received this commentary. She talked about increased banking resilience and the fact so much has been done to strengthen banking capital and liquidity requirements should another crisis occur. She was happy to say that with Bank stress test results there was great improvement in risk management and capital planning.\r\n\r\nShe summed it up by saying that whilst the FED could never be confident that there will never be another financial crisis, there has been significant work and improvements made to best protect against an economic downturn.\r\n\r\nI keep saying that she unconvincing, you can add unimpressive if you want. She talks the talk but I think no-one really believe a word that comes out of the FED as much as they used to. Everything is transitory, data dependent then that no longer appears to matter.\r\n\r\nIN SUMMARY:\r\n\r\nSo; after all that, we received really poor CPi and Retail sales data on Friday last week and the USD received another whacking!\r\n\r\nFrom behind my desk it looks like it’s going to be a long hot summer for USD bulls. I just cannot see how it can come back quickly from: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>YELLEN’s change of focus, unimpressive, lack lustre performance on Capitol Hill. She has really said without saying it that rates are going nowhere in the near future. We may see the next hike in December 2017.</li>\r\n 	<li>A continuing bad run of weak / poor U.S. data after previously released poor data.</li>\r\n 	<li>The on-going political woes of the TRUMP administration. It just keeps scoring own goal after own goal. How did this guy ever run a business? It’s frankly shambolic.</li>\r\n 	<li>Normalization around the world by other G7 central banks. This will affect the USD as other currencies strengthen through their own Central Bank normalization policies.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nItems 1 and 4 above are strategic and structural. These are not whims!\r\n\r\nJanet Yellen’s Capitol Hill performance was in my opinion was possibly the final nail in the coffin that has instigated an FX STRUCTURAL RE-ALIGNMENT that could take place this summer when markets are slow and trading volumes are thin.\r\n\r\n\r\nTRADING MOVING FORWARD:\r\n\r\nFirstly, let’s not get carried away, even though it sounds like I have already.\r\n\r\nWe are trading in the summer. Ranges are always tested and it is a desperate time of the year for false breakouts and breakdowns. Having said that: AUD/USD, NZD/USD, AUD/NZD, AUD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/CAD, USD/CAD and CAD/JPY to name just a few currency pairs are in breakout / breakdown mode. Range extremes are being tested and should they be broken potentially big moves are afoot. Without doubt this move by the FED benefits the commodity currencies whether their central banks want it to or not.\r\n\r\nNOTE: The BOC has already led the way and in the past month the CAD$ has appreciated by over 8 cents. I am not sure that the RBA or the RBNZ would appreciate such a move. They may not have much of a say in what initially happens. Right now, the AUD/USD and NZD/USD are in break out territory toying with really good and strong previous resistance levels.\r\n\r\nWith a move across most G7 central banks to normalize sooner rather later, the market is testing and pushing levels that during the slower thin markets could just give way and moves could be explosive. Perhaps, we will not see the usual false moves that we have seen in past summers.\r\n\r\nWe could see and I would NOT rule it out - a massive summer STRUCTURAL RE-ALIGNMENT.\r\n\r\nShould one currency USD major breakout, it will affect its cross rates and then like a domino effect the market all pushes and pulls to re-align value.\r\n\r\nIn my opinion the big loser should this happen will be the USD.\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"9\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\nBLOG VERSION: #141 PREMIUM SERVICE VERSION\r\nDATE: 16th July 2017.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','AN FX STRUCTURAL RE-ALIGNMENT  IS ON THE WAY','','publish','open','closed','','fx-structural-re-alignment-way','','','2017-07-15 06:56:38','2017-07-15 11:56:38','',0,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?post_type=member_posts&#038;p=9717',0,'member_posts','',0),(9718,1,'2017-07-15 06:56:38','2017-07-15 11:56:38','&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nWell that was an interesting week to say the least. On Wednesday night, I was convinced that the FED had decided upon a change of direction with its monetary policy and by midafternoon on Thursday I was less certain.\r\n\r\nI am now asking myself if these policy announcements followed by walk backs by Central bank leaders are coordinated or is it just pressure of the job or is it a bit of incompetence or both. Whatever way you want to describe it I would use the word unconvincing.\r\n\r\nAll we want as traders, especially with FX is clarity. We couldn’t give a rat’s hairy ass if its positive, negative, bullish, bearish, hawkish or dovish; we just want clarity.\r\n\r\nI am now 100% convinced that we do not get clarity because the Central Bank governors / presidents are as much in dark as most people as to what is actually happening in their own economies. Everything now is so inter-linked we live in different times than that of Trichet and Greenspan and the old-school approaches are no longer relevant.\r\n\r\nLast week I wrote about a TIPPING POINT. I think we are there a lot faster than I thought and it will be FX that starts it.\r\n\r\nMore is at play now that just gamekeepers turning poachers and doves becoming hawks. I see a possible major RE-STRUCTURE and RE-ALIGNMENT taking place in the FX market. It has the added spice of possibly occurring during the summer when trading volumes are low and markets thin and illiquid.\r\n\r\nI also believe that the FED was the final nail in the coffin, the straw that broke the camel’s back to make this a real possibility.\r\n\r\nMore of this in the “SOAPBOX” later.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> LAST WEEK – MY TAKE ON SOME KEY EVENTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nDespite a shortened week from my perspective there were still a few takeaways of note.\r\n\r\nIn no particular order, here is what floated my boat last week.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>CAD (BOC):\r\n\r\nI have been critical of Stephen Poloz in the past through lack of decision, being far too “CONSERVATIVE” in approach, which is the Canadian way irrespective of political persuasion.\r\n\r\nAbout a month ago, Poloz’s Senior Deputy Governor, Carolyn Wilkins (In Canada, we love full employment so there’s probably a great hierarchy, family tree spreadsheet inside the BOC), announced that the time to tighten BOC policy and look to raise rates was basically approaching. The USD/CAD exchange rate fell from the 1.3500 area and now sits circa. 1.2700. That is an 8 cents drop. Unbelievable; and in normal circumstances I would have said equivalent to a about a 1% -1.5% interest rate change. The BOC raised by 0.25% and it could be a one and done event this year.\r\n\r\nFair play; one of the biggest issues and maybe reasoning behind this rate rise had to be the housing bubbles in Toronto and Vancouver.  8 cents move in the exchange rate is the equivalent to a tax on house purchases for overseas buyers, who are really to blame for the housing bubble, squeezing prices up. Their cost to fund CAD$ has increased by the 8-cent move.\r\n\r\nI expected on Thursday the day after the USD/CAD, GBP/CAD and EUR/CAD were slaughtered for a bounce back of sorts. Of sorts are the words to use. On Thursday feck all of a spike higher. The CAD languished around its lows. CAD strength is back.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>GBP (Employment Data, Export numbers and BREXIT):\r\n\r\nA much better week this week for the UK data releases.\r\n\r\nEmployment numbers were good and Export figures positive. Deputy governor Broadbent also went on the wires and said that now is NOT the time to be raising interest rates. No doubt this support got him a big kiss from Mark Carney.\r\n\r\nBREXIT negotiations are still on-going and leaks are almost nonexistent. Either the wine being drunk is so damn good those involved are incapable of speech to report on progress or they have done feck all but just look across the table at each other. Boris Johnson (UK Foreign Minister and BREXIT champion) did offer up a quote during the week, when in reference to the costs of the UK divorce from the EUROPEAN UNION, he said that the numbers quoted by the EU were extortion and that the EU could whistle for it to be paid!\r\n\r\nSo matters are progressing nicely</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>USD (Janet Yellen Bi-Annual testimony, CPi and Retail Sales):\r\n\r\nWell she certainly surprised with her more DOVISH statement to the hill on the state of the FED and its Monetary Policy approach and progress towards its objectives. More about this later in the “SOAPBOX”\r\n\r\nWith regards to the CPI and Retail Sales data, it was really poor and the USD was taken to the woodshed and smacked.\r\n\r\nThe future does not look good for USD bulls.</li>\r\n 	<li>EUR (ECB):\r\n\r\nIt has been announced that Mario Draghi (ECB President) will attend this years FED symposium in Jackson Hole.\r\n\r\nThis announcement has fueled speculation that he may use this event to warm the markets up to the future of the ECB bond buying program. ECB TAPERING is the hot topic at the moment, we had all the shenanigans at the ECB forum last month in Sintra, Portugal when Draghi’s hawkish comments were attempted to be walked back by “unnamed sources!” … my arse; that was the ECB who pooped their pants when they saw the EUR reaction to a tightening policy.\r\n\r\nI would say invest in “Depends**” because the entire staff at the ECB will be wearing them when the symposium takes place.\r\n\r\nI would have thought that the ECB would stay tight lipped and say nothing or do nothing until the year end. If Draghi puts one word out of place, never mind an entire sentence, the single currency will rip higher on the mere mention of tightening never mind a TAPERING exit program.\r\n\r\n<em>** For those of you who live outside of North America.\r\n\r\nHere is the google search for Depend (for men and women)\r\n\r\nTake Control of Leaks by Finding the Protection That\'s Right for You. Fast Absorption · All Around Leg Elastics · Odour Control · Great Protection · Increased Flexibility Types: Fit-Flex®, Real Fit® Briefs, Depend® Shield, Adjustable Underwear, Protection with Tabs</em></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU – LIVE WEBINAR:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThere is a summer break with my LIVE WEBINARS they will return in the fall / autumn.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ECON-DATA-16072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9699\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ECON-DATA-16072017-1024x990.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"990\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>MY THOUGHTS ON THE ECONOMIC DATA EVENTS THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>GBP: It is a big week data wise for the UK. We have CPi, Mark Carney’s testimony to the parliamentary committee on Inflation and Retail Sales.\r\n\r\nI am still very cagey trading the cable at the moment. My bias was upside but the economic data of late has been poor switching my bias to sell. This week’s data will be confirmation of my switch in bias or just confusion.</li>\r\n 	<li>EUR: Mario Draghi has his Press Conference this week, when all eyes and ears will be on “TAPERING” clues. Whatever happens, the single currency will have its usual wild roller-coaster ride up and down for a couple of hours. I just cannot see Draghi committing to anything or hinting at anything. It is the status quo for me, especially with the Jackson Hole symposium attendance being confirmed all attention will be focused there.</li>\r\n 	<li>AUD: Jobs data this week. Good numbers will confirm the AUD breakout and poor numbers will bring back the sceptics. It could be an either way report. Winter employment data releases are always a bit of a lottery as seasonal employment comes into play.\r\n\r\nWe also get at the beginning of the week the last set of minutes from the RBA. If you recall, the last statement from the RBA disappointed the market and sent the AUD/USD lower by 100+ pips because the RBA stayed neutral. This could be interesting to read.\r\n\r\nWill it affect the strengthening AUD that we have seen since Janet Yellen’s testimony earlier in the week?</li>\r\n 	<li>JPY: No doubt a yawn fest. I cannot see the BOJ saying or doing anything new except committing to the existing QE and QQE programs that are in place.</li>\r\n 	<li>CAD: CPi and Retail Sales data is released on Friday. More good numbers would in my opinion send the USD/CAD towards the next support area of 1.2300.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>USD MAJORS – SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS TO NOTE THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/T-CHART-16072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9700\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/T-CHART-16072017-1024x856.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"856\" /></a>\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n<strong>\r\nEUR/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/EURUSD-D-16072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9711\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/EURUSD-D-16072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>GBP/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/GBPUSD-D-16072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9712\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/GBPUSD-D-16072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>AUD/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/AUDUSD-D-16072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9710\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/AUDUSD-D-16072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>NZD/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/NZDUSD-D-16072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9713\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/NZDUSD-D-16072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CAD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCAD-D-16072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9714\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCAD-D-16072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CHF:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCHF-D-16072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9715\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCHF-D-16072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/JPY:</strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDJPY-D-16072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9716\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDJPY-D-16072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n\r\n</strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE?</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber based Forex support service offering not just trade set-ups, but a bunch of different support services that differentiates the PREMIUM SERVICE from other providers, my competitors, that operate in the same space.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><u>PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">So; if nothing else, I tell it how it is. I am currently about 50% of my target for this time of the year. I had a poor start to the year and I am now following a vacation and house move in recovery mode.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">In 2014, 2015 and 2016 I beat my 10,000 pip per annum objective. There is nothing stopping me doing the same this year as my house move and vacation are both behind me. I will be trading pretty much full time from now on through to the end of 2017.\r\n\r\nIf you want to be a part of what I hope will be a storming end to 2017, login at my website and get subscribed. I mean business from here on in.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nMONTH TO DATE:  +1,288 pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE:      +3,693 pips\r\n</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">If you would like to know a little more about THE PREMIUM SERVICE please feel free to watch the following 40-minute video via the link below:</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"http://bit.ly/PremServiceQ217\">http://bit.ly/PremServiceQ217</a></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">PLEASE NOTE: the above video is best viewed using a Google Chrome browser.\r\n\r\n\r\n</p>\r\n\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><strong>WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION?</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIf you would like to be in the monthly draw to win a “FREE 10-WEEK SUBSCRIPTION” to the PREMIUM SERVICE, valued at CAD$500.00, all you should do is subscribe to receive this FREE NEWSLETTER on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nThis can be done as follows: -\r\n\r\nOn my welcome page just below my cube logo is where you complete your subscription.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"7\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:\r\n</strong>(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\nWe added 613 pips to the PREMIUM SERVICE annual total last week. The tally is starting to gather momentum. I am very happy with this, it would have been a lot more but I had three or four poor loss making trades last week.\r\n\r\nI have spoken with a couple of you via SKYPE review meetings last week on the changing FUNDAMENTALS following Janet Yellen’s testimony in D.C. last week.\r\n\r\nLast week I talked about a TIPPING POINT.\r\n\r\nI see this change in direction of FED policy as a bit of a game changer. At least I think it’s a change. Wednesday, it was, Thursday she walked it back a bit. I am referring to moving away from normalization in favour of selling off “TAPERING” the FED balance sheet. This move has fueled the strengthening in particular, the commodity currencies.\r\n\r\nSo many pairs are now in breakout territory against key resistance levels or close to key support levels. I see this as a potential STRUCTURAL SHIFT (more later about these thoughts) … hence my hesitation after Yellen. I was waiting on a further walk back / clarification from the FED. All I saw was “Kaplan” stating that a gradual unwinding of the FED balance sheet should have a limited effect on the markets and that weak inflation is transitory… just the usual bollocks bullsh*t.\r\nThe poor CPi and Retail Sales data that was released on Friday pushed the limits on many pairs even more, so I decided to wait for the weekly closing candles to get a proper picture from which to move into this week with trade set ups.\r\n\r\nFUNDAMENTALLY; I do see a sea change happening, the USD is on its way lower in my opinion, the question is of course for how long? That depends on the FED policy of course. If Yellen stops raising rates in favour of balance sheet tapering this does change my views moving forward.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>TRADE ENVIRONMENT:</u>\r\n\r\nI stated last week that Janet Yellen’s Capitol Hill testimony would set the “Tone” for the markets moving forward. It has, but not in the way that I was expecting.\r\n\r\nWith a lot of poor U.S. data emerging and the TRUMP administration floundering going from one media disaster to the next, with gross inconsistencies and lies that are easy to prove being exposed, I can only think that the USD is in for a severe caning (see DXY chart below)\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/DXY-16072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9701\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/DXY-16072017-1024x503.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"503\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nFrom one of my last LIVE WEBINARS, in fact, I think that it was the final one before my summer break, I showed this WEEKLY USD$ (DXY) INDEX chart and said that if things got tough for the USD this potential bear flag could play out… well things are getting tough for the USD and the bear flag is in play with a measured move to 94.58. It could go further. At the moment, there is no love for the USD.\r\n\r\nTherefore, moving forward at least in the short to medium term I can see more USD weakness. My issue as always is, will this be across the board? That is the $64,000.00 question.\r\n\r\nI can see commodity currencies having a field day as well as the single currency which is the driver of the DXY. A lot depends on equities to gauge the JPY reaction, and, of course, BREXIT for the GBP.\r\n\r\nIt’s all change… bear with me for a couple of days.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>CORE TRADES:\r\n\r\n</u>This may take a few days. At the moment, as you would have noticed late Friday I added a lot of trades around the AUD which is in breakout territory. If we see a move above 0.7850 stick this week, I will be adding aggressively. The RBA Meeting Minutes will be my first key, with the jobs data later in the week.\r\n\r\nIn addition to the AUD completing the week at highs, so did the GBP and the CAD. The GBP I am not convinced about but the CAD to me is on a death spiral. I looked at a longer-term chart the other day on possible measured moves of the USD/CAD and it was 1.1500... yikes.\r\n\r\nThere are plenty of opportunities we just need patience to get there.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\nPREMIUM SERVICE - TRADES REVIEW<strong>:</strong></u>\r\n\r\nCURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE - LIVE TRADES:\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/LIVE-16072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9703\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/LIVE-16072017-978x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"978\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\nCURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE – LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/LIMIT-ORDERS-16072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9702\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/LIMIT-ORDERS-16072017-918x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"918\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"8\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE SOAPBOX:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong> AN FX STRUCTURAL RE-ALIGNMENT IS ON THE WAY </strong></p>\r\nLast week I wrote about how I believed were we were approaching a TIPPING POINT in the markets. Whilst I believe 100% in what I write, I did not think that one week later we would be at said TIPPING POINT, in fact, in my opinion, we are at what is a STRUCTURAL RE-ALIGNMENT.\r\n\r\nWhat do I mean?\r\n\r\nLet me start with some pre-amble, the much-awaited Janet Yellen bi-annual testimony on Capitol Hill, which must have left many people shaking their heads wondering WTF. I found her unconvincing and dare I suggest this but it’s not going to be her problem to fix as her tenure is up early next year and her replacement will be the seat on the hill in front of the politicians.\r\n\r\nI struggle with these U.S. committees, no one really asks questions and if they do they cut the answer short and most of the time we just get statements of position rather than questions. It’s all rather amateurish at times. Some of the committee members were more interested in scoring party points than actually being focused on the matter in hand. It does however, parade out in front of the world allegedly the best representatives of the people that the U.S. has… God help us all.\r\n\r\nMy thoughts / highlights / lowlights on the two-day testimony were: -\r\n\r\nINFLATION:\r\n\r\nWhat inflation?\r\n\r\nShe said that Inflation should rebound, but the FED could alter policy if inflation softness persists. Basically, she is stuck with the 2% goal that hasn’t been achieved for, I don’t know 5 years, 7 years?\r\n\r\nIf I had set targets like this back in the corporate world that I did not achieve never mind beat, I would be out on my arse looking for a new job!\r\n\r\nHer commentary was along the lines of FED POLICY should see the objective hit in the next few years. FED POLICY so far hasn’t done it, why on earth would anyone think that the FED has suddenly found the secret sauce?\r\n\r\n\r\nFED BALANCE SHEET, INTEREST RATES and MONETARY POLICY:\r\n\r\nThis is what caused all the twitchy bottoms.\r\n\r\nWith regards to monetary policy, she was DOVISH.  Although the Fed will begin TAPERING its balance sheet and although it will continue to gradually raise interest rates, interest rates will no longer be as high as before as seen in previous economic cycles and if inflation does NOT perk up the FED will slow down on raising rates.\r\n\r\nThe FED intends to raise rates as unemployment rates keep falling. Hmmn\r\nOn Day Two, Janet Yellen basically re-worked the same as day one although she did walk back comments made about whether she believed that there would ever be another great Financial crisis?\r\nDay one it was No.\r\n\r\nDay two we received this commentary. She talked about increased banking resilience and the fact so much has been done to strengthen banking capital and liquidity requirements should another crisis occur. She was happy to say that with Bank stress test results there was great improvement in risk management and capital planning.\r\n\r\nShe summed it up by saying that whilst the FED could never be confident that there will never be another financial crisis, there has been significant work and improvements made to best protect against an economic downturn.\r\n\r\nI keep saying that she unconvincing, you can add unimpressive if you want. She talks the talk but I think no-one really believe a word that comes out of the FED as much as they used to. Everything is transitory, data dependent then that no longer appears to matter.\r\n\r\nIN SUMMARY:\r\n\r\nSo; after all that, we received really poor CPi and Retail sales data on Friday last week and the USD received another whacking!\r\n\r\nFrom behind my desk it looks like it’s going to be a long hot summer for USD bulls. I just cannot see how it can come back quickly from: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>YELLEN’s change of focus, unimpressive, lack lustre performance on Capitol Hill. She has really said without saying it that rates are going nowhere in the near future. We may see the next hike in December 2017.</li>\r\n 	<li>A continuing bad run of weak / poor U.S. data after previously released poor data.</li>\r\n 	<li>The on-going political woes of the TRUMP administration. It just keeps scoring own goal after own goal. How did this guy ever run a business? It’s frankly shambolic.</li>\r\n 	<li>Normalization around the world by other G7 central banks. This will affect the USD as other currencies strengthen through their own Central Bank normalization policies.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nItems 1 and 4 above are strategic and structural. These are not whims!\r\n\r\nJanet Yellen’s Capitol Hill performance was in my opinion was possibly the final nail in the coffin that has instigated an FX STRUCTURAL RE-ALIGNMENT that could take place this summer when markets are slow and trading volumes are thin.\r\n\r\n\r\nTRADING MOVING FORWARD:\r\n\r\nFirstly, let’s not get carried away, even though it sounds like I have already.\r\n\r\nWe are trading in the summer. Ranges are always tested and it is a desperate time of the year for false breakouts and breakdowns. Having said that: AUD/USD, NZD/USD, AUD/NZD, AUD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/CAD, USD/CAD and CAD/JPY to name just a few currency pairs are in breakout / breakdown mode. Range extremes are being tested and should they be broken potentially big moves are afoot. Without doubt this move by the FED benefits the commodity currencies whether their central banks want it to or not.\r\n\r\nNOTE: The BOC has already led the way and in the past month the CAD$ has appreciated by over 8 cents. I am not sure that the RBA or the RBNZ would appreciate such a move. They may not have much of a say in what initially happens. Right now, the AUD/USD and NZD/USD are in break out territory toying with really good and strong previous resistance levels.\r\n\r\nWith a move across most G7 central banks to normalize sooner rather later, the market is testing and pushing levels that during the slower thin markets could just give way and moves could be explosive. Perhaps, we will not see the usual false moves that we have seen in past summers.\r\n\r\nWe could see and I would NOT rule it out - a massive summer STRUCTURAL RE-ALIGNMENT.\r\n\r\nShould one currency USD major breakout, it will affect its cross rates and then like a domino effect the market all pushes and pulls to re-align value.\r\n\r\nIn my opinion the big loser should this happen will be the USD.\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"9\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\nBLOG VERSION: #141 PREMIUM SERVICE VERSION\r\nDATE: 16th July 2017.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','AN FX STRUCTURAL RE-ALIGNMENT  IS ON THE WAY','','inherit','closed','closed','','9717-revision-v1','','','2017-07-15 06:56:38','2017-07-15 11:56:38','',9717,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/9717-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(9727,1,'2017-07-15 07:41:40','2017-07-15 12:41:40','&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nWell that was an interesting week to say the least. On Wednesday night, I was convinced that the FED had decided upon a change of direction with its monetary policy and by midafternoon on Thursday I was less certain.\r\n\r\nI am now asking myself if these policy announcements followed by walk backs by Central bank leaders are coordinated or is it just pressure of the job or is it a bit of incompetence or both. Whatever way you want to describe it I would use the word unconvincing.\r\n\r\nAll we want as traders, especially with FX is clarity. We couldn’t give a rat’s hairy ass if its positive, negative, bullish, bearish, hawkish or dovish; we just want clarity.\r\n\r\nI am now 100% convinced that we do not get clarity because the Central Bank governors / presidents are as much in dark as most people as to what is actually happening in their own economies. Everything now is so inter-linked we live in different times than that of Trichet and Greenspan and the old-school approaches are no longer relevant.\r\n\r\nLast week I wrote about a TIPPING POINT. I think we are there a lot faster than I thought and it will be FX that starts it.\r\n\r\nMore is at play now that just gamekeepers turning poachers and doves becoming hawks. I see a possible major RE-STRUCTURE and RE-ALIGNMENT taking place in the FX market. It has the added spice of possibly occurring during the summer when trading volumes are low and markets thin and illiquid.\r\n\r\nI also believe that the FED was the final nail in the coffin, the straw that broke the camel’s back to make this a real possibility.\r\n\r\nMore of this in the “SOAPBOX” later.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> LAST WEEK – MY TAKE ON SOME KEY EVENTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nDespite a shortened week from my perspective there were still a few takeaways of note.\r\n\r\nIn no particular order, here is what floated my boat last week.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>CAD (BOC):\r\n\r\nI have been critical of Stephen Poloz in the past through lack of decision, being far too “CONSERVATIVE” in approach, which is the Canadian way irrespective of political persuasion.\r\n\r\nAbout a month ago, Poloz’s Senior Deputy Governor, Carolyn Wilkins (In Canada, we love full employment so there’s probably a great hierarchy, family tree spreadsheet inside the BOC), announced that the time to tighten BOC policy and look to raise rates was basically approaching. The USD/CAD exchange rate fell from the 1.3500 area and now sits circa. 1.2700. That is an 8 cents drop. Unbelievable; and in normal circumstances I would have said equivalent to a about a 1% -1.5% interest rate change. The BOC raised by 0.25% and it could be a one and done event this year.\r\n\r\nFair play; one of the biggest issues and maybe reasoning behind this rate rise had to be the housing bubbles in Toronto and Vancouver.  8 cents move in the exchange rate is the equivalent to a tax on house purchases for overseas buyers, who are really to blame for the housing bubble, squeezing prices up. Their cost to fund CAD$ has increased by the 8-cent move.\r\n\r\nI expected on Thursday the day after the USD/CAD, GBP/CAD and EUR/CAD were slaughtered for a bounce back of sorts. Of sorts are the words to use. On Thursday feck all of a spike higher. The CAD languished around its lows. CAD strength is back.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>GBP (Employment Data, Export numbers and BREXIT):\r\n\r\nA much better week this week for the UK data releases.\r\n\r\nEmployment numbers were good and Export figures positive. Deputy governor Broadbent also went on the wires and said that now is NOT the time to be raising interest rates. No doubt this support got him a big kiss from Mark Carney.\r\n\r\nBREXIT negotiations are still on-going and leaks are almost nonexistent. Either the wine being drunk is so damn good those involved are incapable of speech to report on progress or they have done feck all but just look across the table at each other. Boris Johnson (UK Foreign Minister and BREXIT champion) did offer up a quote during the week, when in reference to the costs of the UK divorce from the EUROPEAN UNION, he said that the numbers quoted by the EU were extortion and that the EU could whistle for it to be paid!\r\n\r\nSo matters are progressing nicely.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>USD (Janet Yellen Bi-Annual testimony, CPi and Retail Sales):\r\n\r\nWell she certainly surprised with her more DOVISH statement to the hill on the state of the FED and its Monetary Policy approach and progress towards its objectives. More about this later in the “SOAPBOX”\r\n\r\nWith regards to the CPI and Retail Sales data, it was really poor and the USD was taken to the woodshed and smacked.\r\n\r\nThe future does not look good for USD bulls.</li>\r\n 	<li>EUR (ECB):\r\n\r\nIt has been announced that Mario Draghi (ECB President) will attend this years FED symposium in Jackson Hole.\r\n\r\nThis announcement has fueled speculation that he may use this event to warm the markets up to the future of the ECB bond buying program. ECB TAPERING is the hot topic at the moment, we had all the shenanigans at the ECB forum last month in Sintra, Portugal when Draghi’s hawkish comments were attempted to be walked back by “unnamed sources!” … my arse; that was the ECB who pooped their pants when they saw the EUR reaction to a tightening policy.\r\n\r\nI would say invest in “Depends**” because the entire staff at the ECB will be wearing them when the symposium takes place.\r\n\r\nI would have thought that the ECB would stay tight lipped and say nothing or do nothing until the year end. If Draghi puts one word out of place, never mind an entire sentence, the single currency will rip higher on the mere mention of tightening never mind a TAPERING exit program.\r\n\r\n<em>** For those of you who live outside of North America.\r\n\r\nHere is the google search for Depend (for men and women)\r\n\r\nTake Control of Leaks by Finding the Protection That\'s Right for You. Fast Absorption · All Around Leg Elastics · Odour Control · Great Protection · Increased Flexibility Types: Fit-Flex®, Real Fit® Briefs, Depend® Shield, Adjustable Underwear, Protection with Tabs</em></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU – LIVE WEBINAR:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThere is a summer break with my LIVE WEBINARS they will return in the fall / autumn.<strong>\r\n\r\n</strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ECON-DATA-16072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9699\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ECON-DATA-16072017-1024x990.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"990\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>MY THOUGHTS ON THE ECONOMIC DATA EVENTS THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>GBP: It is a big week data wise for the UK. We have CPi, Mark Carney’s testimony to the parliamentary committee on Inflation and Retail Sales.\r\n\r\nI am still very cagey trading the cable at the moment. My bias was upside but the economic data of late has been poor switching my bias to sell. This week’s data will be confirmation of my switch in bias or just confusion.</li>\r\n 	<li>EUR: Mario Draghi has his Press Conference this week, when all eyes and ears will be on “TAPERING” clues. Whatever happens, the single currency will have its usual wild roller-coaster ride up and down for a couple of hours. I just cannot see Draghi committing to anything or hinting at anything. It is the status quo for me, especially with the Jackson Hole symposium attendance being confirmed all attention will be focused there.</li>\r\n 	<li>AUD: Jobs data this week. Good numbers will confirm the AUD breakout and poor numbers will bring back the sceptics. It could be an either way report. Winter employment data releases are always a bit of a lottery as seasonal employment comes into play.\r\n\r\nWe also get at the beginning of the week the last set of minutes from the RBA. If you recall, the last statement from the RBA disappointed the market and sent the AUD/USD lower by 100+ pips because the RBA stayed neutral. This could be interesting to read.\r\n\r\nWill it affect the strengthening AUD that we have seen since Janet Yellen’s testimony earlier in the week?</li>\r\n 	<li>JPY: No doubt a yawn fest. I cannot see the BOJ saying or doing anything new except committing to the existing QE and QQE programs that are in place.</li>\r\n 	<li>CAD: CPi and Retail Sales data is released on Friday. More good numbers would in my opinion send the USD/CAD towards the next support area of 1.2300.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>USD MAJORS – SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS TO NOTE THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/T-CHART-16072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9700\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/T-CHART-16072017-1024x856.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"856\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n<strong>\r\nEUR/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/EURUSD-D-16072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9711\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/EURUSD-D-16072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>GBP/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/GBPUSD-D-16072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9712\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/GBPUSD-D-16072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>AUD/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/AUDUSD-D-16072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9710\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/AUDUSD-D-16072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>NZD/USD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/NZDUSD-D-16072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9713\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/NZDUSD-D-16072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CAD:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCAD-D-16072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9714\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCAD-D-16072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CHF:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCHF-D-16072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9715\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCHF-D-16072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/JPY:</strong>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDJPY-D-16072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9716\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDJPY-D-16072017-1024x472.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"472\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><u>WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE?</u></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">The PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber based Forex support service offering not just trade set-ups, but a bunch of different support services that differentiates the PREMIUM SERVICE from other providers, my competitors, that operate in the same space.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Full details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Further information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><u>PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">So; if nothing else, I tell it how it is. I am currently about 50% of my target for this time of the year. I had a poor start to the year and I am now following a vacation and house move in recovery mode.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">In 2014, 2015 and 2016 I beat my 10,000 pip per annum objective. There is nothing stopping me doing the same this year as my house move and vacation are both behind me. I will be trading pretty much full time from now on through to the end of 2017.\r\n\r\nIf you want to be a part of what I hope will be a storming end to 2017, login at my website and get subscribed. I mean business from here on in.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nMONTH TO DATE:  +1,288 pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE:      +3,693 pips</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">If you would like to know a little more about THE PREMIUM SERVICE please feel free to watch the following 40-minute video via the link below:</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"http://bit.ly/PremServiceQ217\">http://bit.ly/PremServiceQ217</a></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">PLEASE NOTE: the above video is best viewed using a Google Chrome browser.\r\n\r\n</p>\r\n\r\n<ol style=\"text-align: center;\" start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION?</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">If you would like to be in the monthly draw to win a “FREE 10-WEEK SUBSCRIPTION” to the PREMIUM SERVICE, valued at CAD$500.00, all you should do is subscribe to receive this FREE NEWSLETTER on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">This can be done as follows: -\r\n\r\nOn my welcome page just below my cube logo is where you complete your subscription.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"></p>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"7\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:\r\n</strong>(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"8\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE SOAPBOX:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>\r\nAN FX STRUCTURAL RE-ALIGNMENT IS ON THE WAY </strong></p>\r\nLast week I wrote about how I believed were we were approaching a TIPPING POINT in the markets. Whilst I believe 100% in what I write, I did not think that one week later we would be at said TIPPING POINT, in fact, in my opinion, we are at what is a STRUCTURAL RE-ALIGNMENT.\r\n\r\nWhat do I mean?\r\n\r\nLet me start with some pre-amble, the much-awaited Janet Yellen bi-annual testimony on Capitol Hill, which must have left many people shaking their heads wondering WTF. I found her unconvincing and dare I suggest this but it’s not going to be her problem to fix as her tenure is up early next year and her replacement will be the seat on the hill in front of the politicians.\r\n\r\nI struggle with these U.S. committees, no one really asks questions and if they do they cut the answer short and most of the time we just get statements of position rather than questions. It’s all rather amateurish at times. Some of the committee members were more interested in scoring party points than actually being focused on the matter in hand. It does however, parade out in front of the world allegedly the best representatives of the people that the U.S. has… God help us all.\r\n\r\nMy thoughts / highlights / lowlights on the two-day testimony were: -\r\n\r\nINFLATION:\r\n\r\nWhat inflation?\r\n\r\nShe said that Inflation should rebound, but the FED could alter policy if inflation softness persists. Basically, she is stuck with the 2% goal that hasn’t been achieved for, I don’t know 5 years, 7 years?\r\n\r\nIf I had set targets like this back in the corporate world that I did not achieve never mind beat, I would be out on my arse looking for a new job!\r\n\r\nHer commentary was along the lines of FED POLICY should see the objective hit in the next few years. FED POLICY so far hasn’t done it, why on earth would anyone think that the FED has suddenly found the secret sauce?\r\n\r\n\r\nFED BALANCE SHEET, INTEREST RATES and MONETARY POLICY:\r\n\r\nThis is what caused all the twitchy bottoms.\r\n\r\nWith regards to monetary policy, she was DOVISH.  Although the Fed will begin TAPERING its balance sheet and although it will continue to gradually raise interest rates, interest rates will no longer be as high as before as seen in previous economic cycles and if inflation does NOT perk up the FED will slow down on raising rates.\r\n\r\nThe FED intends to raise rates as unemployment rates keep falling. Hmmn\r\nOn Day Two, Janet Yellen basically re-worked the same as day one although she did walk back comments made about whether she believed that there would ever be another great Financial crisis?\r\nDay one it was No.\r\n\r\nDay two we received this commentary. She talked about increased banking resilience and the fact so much has been done to strengthen banking capital and liquidity requirements should another crisis occur. She was happy to say that with Bank stress test results there was great improvement in risk management and capital planning.\r\n\r\nShe summed it up by saying that whilst the FED could never be confident that there will never be another financial crisis, there has been significant work and improvements made to best protect against an economic downturn.\r\n\r\nI keep saying that she unconvincing, you can add unimpressive if you want. She talks the talk but I think no-one really believe a word that comes out of the FED as much as they used to. Everything is transitory, data dependent then that no longer appears to matter.\r\n\r\nIN SUMMARY:\r\n\r\nSo; after all that, we received really poor CPi and Retail sales data on Friday last week and the USD received another whacking!\r\n\r\nFrom behind my desk it looks like it’s going to be a long hot summer for USD bulls. I just cannot see how it can come back quickly from: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>YELLEN’s change of focus, unimpressive, lack lustre performance on Capitol Hill. She has really said without saying it that rates are going nowhere in the near future. We may see the next hike in December 2017.</li>\r\n 	<li>A continuing bad run of weak / poor U.S. data after previously released poor data.</li>\r\n 	<li>The on-going political woes of the TRUMP administration. It just keeps scoring own goal after own goal. How did this guy ever run a business? It’s frankly shambolic.</li>\r\n 	<li>Normalization around the world by other G7 central banks. This will affect the USD as other currencies strengthen through their own Central Bank normalization policies.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nItems 1 and 4 above are strategic and structural. These are not whims!\r\n\r\nJanet Yellen’s Capitol Hill performance was in my opinion was possibly the final nail in the coffin that has instigated an FX STRUCTURAL RE-ALIGNMENT that could take place this summer when markets are slow and trading volumes are thin.\r\n\r\n\r\nTRADING MOVING FORWARD:\r\n\r\nFirstly, let’s not get carried away, even though it sounds like I have already.\r\n\r\nWe are trading in the summer. Ranges are always tested and it is a desperate time of the year for false breakouts and breakdowns. Having said that: - AUD/USD, NZD/USD, AUD/NZD, AUD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/CAD, USD/CAD and CAD/JPY to name just a few currency pairs are in breakout / breakdown mode. Range extremes are being tested and should they be broken potentially big moves are afoot. Without doubt this move by the FED benefits the commodity currencies whether their central banks want it to or not.\r\n\r\nNOTE: The BOC has already led the way and in the past month the CAD$ has appreciated by over 8 cents. I am not sure that the RBA or the RBNZ would appreciate such a move. They may not have much of a say in what initially happens. Right now, the AUD/USD and NZD/USD are in break out territory toying with really good and strong previous resistance levels.\r\n\r\nWith a move across most G7 central banks to normalize sooner rather later, the market is testing and pushing levels that during the slower thin markets could just give way and moves could be explosive. Perhaps, we will not see the usual false moves that we have seen in past summers.\r\n\r\nWe could see and I would NOT rule it out - a massive summer STRUCTURAL RE-ALIGNMENT.\r\n\r\nShould one currency USD major breakout, it will affect its cross rates and then like a domino effect the market all pushes and pulls to re-align value.\r\n\r\nIn my opinion the big loser should this happen will be the USD.\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"9\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #244 FREE NEWSLETTER\r\nDATE: 16th July 2017.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','AN FX STRUCTURAL RE-ALIGNMENT  IS ON THE WAY','','inherit','closed','closed','','9726-revision-v1','','','2017-07-15 07:41:40','2017-07-15 12:41:40','',9726,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/9726-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(9830,1,'2017-08-05 05:56:50','2017-08-05 10:56:50','','EURUSD D 06082017','','inherit','open','closed','','eurusd-d-06082017','','','2017-08-05 07:25:27','2017-08-05 12:25:27','',9836,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/EURUSD-D-06082017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(9831,1,'2017-08-05 05:56:55','2017-08-05 10:56:55','','GBPUSD D 06082017','','inherit','open','closed','','gbpusd-d-06082017','','','2017-08-05 07:25:38','2017-08-05 12:25:38','',9836,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/GBPUSD-D-06082017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(9832,1,'2017-08-05 05:57:00','2017-08-05 10:57:00','','NZDUSD D 06082017','','inherit','open','closed','','nzdusd-d-06082017','','','2017-08-05 07:26:07','2017-08-05 12:26:07','',9836,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/NZDUSD-D-06082017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(9833,1,'2017-08-05 05:57:05','2017-08-05 10:57:05','','USDCAD D 06082017','','inherit','open','closed','','usdcad-d-06082017','','','2017-08-05 07:26:20','2017-08-05 12:26:20','',9836,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/USDCAD-D-06082017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(9834,1,'2017-08-05 05:57:10','2017-08-05 10:57:10','','USDCHF D 06082017','','inherit','open','closed','','usdchf-d-06082017','','','2017-08-05 07:26:33','2017-08-05 12:26:33','',9836,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/USDCHF-D-06082017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(9835,1,'2017-08-05 05:57:15','2017-08-05 10:57:15','','USDJPY D 06082017','','inherit','open','closed','','usdjpy-d-06082017','','','2017-08-05 07:26:50','2017-08-05 12:26:50','',9836,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/USDJPY-D-06082017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(9836,1,'2017-08-05 07:36:54','2017-08-05 12:36:54','&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nI cannot believe that we are into August. This blog is the last one for a few weeks, I return with the “DRIVE THRU” blog on September 3rd, 2017.\r\n\r\nPREMIUM SERVICE subscribers please note that trading will continue through the “DRIVE THRU” break. I do have one or two key domestic action items to fulfil during the break and I will alert you when these are in play.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nThe BOE “Super Thursday” event is now behind us and despite advising the markets that tightening is on the way, it was obvious due to the reaction in cable falling from around 1.3260 to about 1.3110 in the hour or so after the news was released and Mark Carney’s subsequent press conference, that the markets had priced in a more hawkish BOE. I will cover this event a in little more detail later.\r\n\r\nLooking at money $$$...\r\n\r\nI covered lots of trades ahead of last Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls and added a positive +691 pips for the first few days of the month. It’s a great start and I am very quickly pulling back my pips shortfall from earlier in the year due to my house move followed almost immediately by a 4-week vacation. There is still some way to go to my 10,000-pip annual objective but I am now almost back to where my pips total should be for this time of the year.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> LAST WEEK – MY TAKE ON SOME KEY EVENTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIn no particular order, here is what floated my boat last week.\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>NZD: Jobs Data.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 60px;\">The Kiwi has been struggling since the data was released mid-week. Job growth in New Zealand is flat-lining. In Q2 2017, employment fell by 0.2% It was up 1.2% the previous quarter and it was forecasted to be positive this quarter by 0.7%.\r\n\r\nIt was the first contraction in employment since Q3 2015. The participation rate also slid 0.6%.\r\n\r\nHaving only recently visited New Zealand both North and South Islands, the place was buzzing and the dynamics appeared very positive. However, beneath this outer crust and dynamism the wages environment is subdued. In this instance, New Zealand is no different to other developed countries, despite unemployment levels being at historic low levels, wages are just NOT picking up.</p>\r\n\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li>AUD: RBA Rate Statement.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"padding-left: 60px;\">Dr. Philip Lowe (RBA Governor) kept rates unchanged and kept the commentary neutral. He did however elude to the fact that should the current AUD strength continue, it is likely to weigh on the outlook for output and employment. An appreciating exchange rate would result in a slower pick-up of economic activity and inflation than currently forecasted.\r\n\r\nDo I read… AUD strength = a growth slowdown?\r\n\r\nFrom a currency perspective; I do think that the RBA would prefer a weaker currency (who wouldn’t). With the AUD/USD hitting an 0.8065, the orders for Prozac at the RBA would have increased. A break below 0.7840 (recent breakout level) would ease matters a great deal. Obviously, an AUD/USD exchange rate hovering between 0.7000 and 0.7500 would be preferred by the RBA.</p>\r\n\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li>GBP: BOE and Carney Press Conference.Interest Rate on Hold\r\nMPC 6-2 vote\r\nGrowth forecasts revised lower.\r\nInflation to peak c.3% in October.\r\nInterest Rates may need TO RISE FASTER than markets imply.\r\nUncertainty about BREXIT will weigh on growth.\r\nWages growth market down from 3.5% to 3%.They were the key things that I noted from the Statement and Press Conference.In addition, what made me giggle a bit was Carney’s multiple references to households and businesses taking the lead in reactions to BREXIT uncertainties. He noted that both households and business were taking BREXIT in their stride and that they were both expecting a smooth transition.\r\n\r\nFFS… my arse.\r\n\r\nHouseholds are more in debt than ever. Wages are not keeping growth in line with inflation. There is great uncertainty.\r\n\r\nBusinesses are using BREXIT as an excuse to limit wage rises on the back of “be grateful you have a job all things considered”.\r\n\r\nIs Threadneedle Street in a time warp?\r\n\r\nThese guys beggar belief. Carney stated that the BOE has spoken to ‘real” people about policies. Who are these people, the Chaps in the local pub in the city around the corner from the BOE?\r\n\r\nThe GBP however was whacked on the BOE statement and the following Press Conference and again on the NFP data, moving lower by almost 250 pips from its pre “Super Thursday” highs.</li>\r\n 	<li>CAD: Jobs Data.It was a small miss on the Canadian data, which, I suppose given how, of late Canadian data has nearly always been a beat was a little surprising. Personally, I welcomed this miss, as it has allowed the USD/CAD to rally (CAD to weaken). I have been waiting very patiently for an entry level short (This entry was posted to PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers POS393). I feel that this level should be achieved early this week.The Trade Balance number at (-3.6 CAD$ Billion versus -1.3 CAD$ billion expected) was a little worrying… but one month does not make up a trend.I am firmly in the camp that the CAD has at least another leg lower and a big one at that.</li>\r\n 	<li>USD: Non-Farm Payrolls data.I suppose my position on the reaction to the data would be “The market was just too heavily positioned the wrong way… far too much USD weakness, and by the looks of things too many USD shorts.The data at 209k new jobs versus 181k predicted once again showed up the difference between ADP and NFP. ADP simply cannot be trusted as an indicator or a barometer when it comes to looking at forecasting NFP. Then again, only a fecking loony would forecast NFP, it\'s a bloody lottery when all said and done…but hang on…maybe it’s not a lottery. At least with a lottery you have a chance!Back on track…\r\n\r\nBlow out numbers. After the analysts and experts crawled out from beneath their desks and realised this the USD started to strengthen in style (Over 100 points higher).\r\n\r\nWell over, +100 pip moves with EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY.\r\n\r\nThe usual suspects crawled out from under rocks to claim that the FED’s rate rise in December is possibility back on. FFS, HMOG, FGS, and JM&amp;J… we are in the middle of summer. Given the fact we have a clown in the White House, I would not be giving forward guidance on a damn thing more than a few hours ahead never mind a few months. I suppose these flutes are not in any way accountable for their predictions and they mostly have no skin in the game, so who cares what they say. In my opinion, this is one reason why CNBC ratings are falling faster than the cable at the moment.\r\n\r\nThe only person to listen to about FED activity in my opinion is Janet Yellen. Ignore the noise.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>3.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/ECON-DATA-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9820\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/ECON-DATA-06082017-1024x888.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"888\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3.2: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:</u>\r\n\r\nEconomic data releases this week are a bit thin on the ground.\r\n\r\nHowever, here are my picks of the upcoming week.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>NZD: Those awfully nice chaps at the RBNZ led by Governor Graeme “the dealer” Wheeler has my top pick of the week this week.As I type this, the memorandum will already be circulating at the RBNZ deciding on the choice of wine for this week’s Press Conference and whether to go for cheese or pate. All the local corporate hospitality companies have been moved from orange to red alert to ensure sufficient stemware is on hand. No swigging from the bottles at the RBNZ.On a more serious note...The jobs data last week was a surprising miss. The Kiwi dollar back up at NZD/USD 0.7500 must have had Wheeler pissing conkers. Many traders / analysts / experts? had the NZD/USD trading at 0.7800 testing the May 2015 levels.\r\n\r\nNobody expects a rate move from the current 1.75%. It’s all about the commentary. Will Wheeler remain neutral or will he jawbone and go dovish trying to send the NZD/USD back towards 0.7000?\r\n\r\nA couple of weeks ago just prior to the latest drop in the USD, the NZD was showing signs of life to move sharply higher. A spokesperson from the RBNZ said basically “so what” 75%-80% of what the NZD/USD does exchange rate wise is out of the RBNZ control.\r\n\r\nOK… let’s roll out the same flute with the NZD/USD at 0.8000. Would the response be different? As sure as eggs are eggs it would be. There would be jawboning. As soon as dairy exports are threatened the RBNZ will act and like a good central bank they want stability. I would not rule out jawboning at this meeting just to keep the markets in check.\r\n\r\nUnfortunately, Wheelers rate statement and his jawboning never seem to go in tandem. It’s like he speaks with this right hand and writes with his left and neither hand knows what the other hand has done or is doing.\r\n\r\nIt all adds together to give us a news event to follow with interest. The Rate statement is released at 5PM EST and the Press Conference takes place at 6PM EST this Wednesday.</li>\r\n 	<li>USD: PPi and CPi data is released this week. Given that the FED is off its normalization route at the moment (even with the better than expected NFP data). These news items may not have the usual effect on markets other than for 30 minutes or so after the data is released. The FED change and the summer may play a combined role here. Nevertheless, we should be aware of the results.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>3.3: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/TCHART-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9821\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/TCHART-06082017-1024x845.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"845\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>EUR/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/EURUSD-D-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9830\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/EURUSD-D-06082017-1024x558.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"558\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/GBPUSD-D-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9831\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/GBPUSD-D-06082017-1024x558.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"558\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/AUDUSD-D-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9829\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/AUDUSD-D-06082017-1024x558.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"558\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/NZDUSD-D-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9832\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/NZDUSD-D-06082017-1024x558.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"558\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/USDCAD-D-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9833\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/USDCAD-D-06082017-1024x558.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"558\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/USDCHF-D-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9834\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/USDCHF-D-06082017-1024x558.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"558\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/USDJPY-D-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9835\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/USDJPY-D-06082017-1024x558.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"558\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong><strong> </strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>4.1: WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE?</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber based Forex support service offering my suggested trade set-ups and market commentary.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n4.1.1: YOUR <strong>BENEFITS</strong> OF SUBSCRIBING:</u>\r\n\r\nI am obviously biased in this section;\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, it is not just about market commentaries and suggested trade set ups. I want the PREMIUM SERVICE to be different from other providers in the Forex Market.\r\nHow have I created differentiation?\r\n\r\nI am a full-time Forex Trader of over 9 years.\r\nI trade my trades.\r\nI have SKIN in the game.\r\n<strong>BENEFIT FOR YOU – not all service providers are traders. </strong>\r\n\r\nAll my suggested trades are communicated via Twitter through a secure / closed account and confirmed with more back up data for my trades through email. I tell you when I am getting in and I advise you if I am getting out. If you want to copy me you know what I am doing.\r\n<strong>BENEFIT FOR YOU – Real time trading (24 x 5), regardless of time zone</strong>\r\n\r\nI am NOT an educator. I am a trader first and foremost, but I can help many traders become better at what they do\r\nForex Trading is repetition and to a large extent a daily routine and many times quite boring.\r\nTechnical trading of patterns and previous support and resistance levels, Pivot points and Fibonacci levels, they all work.\r\nI feel and my successes are based these indicators being used alongside fundamentals.\r\nFundamentals alone are not good enough in my opinion. They will eventually work but requires very, very deep pockets.\r\n<strong>BENEFIT FOR YOU – I live for my trades and pass this belief to subscribers</strong><u>\r\n</u>\r\nI offer serious traders additional support such as “one-on-one” coaching: -\r\n\r\nIdentifying Chart Patterns\r\nWhat do candlestick patterns mean?\r\nWhat do single candlesticks signify?\r\nHow do I identify high probability trades?\r\nHow to Manage RISK\r\nHow to POSITION SIZE effectively\r\nEffective Account Management\r\nHow to achieve Market longevity.\r\n<strong>BENEFIT FOR YOU – I want to help you achieve a Trading success</strong>\r\n\r\nI provide Market Commentary – but only when there is something important to communicate about the markets or something that is on my mind to say.\r\nI tell it how it is from my perspective. I do my best to straight talking in every situation.\r\n<strong>BENEFIT FOR YOU - I remove the noise remain informative and focused</strong><u>\r\n</u>\r\nPREMIUM SERVICE subscribers receive a “FULL VERSION” of this blog that includes sections on: -\r\nMy Market Trading Review (PREMIUM SERVICE progress)\r\nTechnical views plus Fundamental views and thoughts\r\nMarket Sentiment analysis\r\nCore Trades and Core Positions analysis\r\nA review of current LIVE and LIMIT ORDERS\r\n<strong>BENEFIT FOR YOU – It’s open, honest, straight to the point and concise</strong>\r\n\r\nAnnual (Platinum) Subscribers receive, (if they want it) a personal monthly review via SKYPE or FaceTime of the PREMIUM SERVICE trades, an overview of the markets and my FUNDAMENTAL views / ideas moving forward.\r\n<strong>BENEFIT FOR YOU – I welcome interaction it feeds success</strong>\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs.\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n<u>4.2: PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\nSo; if nothing else, I tell it how it is. I am currently about 70% of my target for this time of the year. I had a poor start to the year and I am now following a vacation and a protracted house move, in “Pip” recovery mode.\r\n\r\nIn 2014, 2015 and 2016 I beat my 10,000 pip per annum objective. There is nothing stopping me doing the same this year as my house move and vacation are both behind me. I will be trading pretty much full time from now on through to the end of 2017.\r\n\r\nIf you want to be a part of what I hope will be a storming end to 2017, login at my website and get subscribed. I mean business from here on in.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nMONTH TO DATE:  +691 net pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE:      +4,906 net pips\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n4.2.1: SUBSCRIBING NOW…  HAS BENEFITS:</u>\r\n\r\nEven though I am not producing a “DRIVE THRU” blog for the next three weeks, my subscription periods of 10, 20 or 40 weeks are based around the DRIVE THRU posts.\r\n\r\nTherefore subscribing now really means that your subscription does not start until 3rd September, three weeks’ time. However, between now and them, I am still trading therefore suggested set ups and twitter, email, in fact all communication is open.\r\n\r\nTherefore: -\r\n\r\nA 10-week CAD$500.00 subscription starts 3rd September and would complete on 12th November 2017.\r\n\r\nA 20-week CAD$800.00 subscription would start 3rd September and would complete on 10th February 2018.\r\n\r\nA 40-week CAD$1,250.00 Platinum subscription would start 3rd September and complete on 30th June 2018.\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>4.3: WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you would like to be in the monthly draw to win a “FREE 10-WEEK SUBSCRIPTION” to the PREMIUM SERVICE, valued at CAD$500.00, all you should do is subscribe to receive this FREE NEWSLETTER on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nThis can be done as follows: -\r\n\r\nOn my welcome page just below my cube logo is where you complete your subscription.\r\n\r\nBecause of my “time out” this month. No freebie subscription this month back in September, in fact the next “DRIVE THRU” blog.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>4.4: PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:</u><u>\r\n</u>(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.1: TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\nLast week the PREMIUM SERVICE added +691 net pips. That I think was the biggest net pip haul in a week this year. Happy Days!!\r\n\r\nI had a few SKYPE sessions (Market Review and Training) over the past week or so. Some great feedback and some interesting ideas for me to mull over amongst other things over the next few weeks.\r\n\r\nWhilst this is the last blog until September, I will still be trading through the month and set-ups should still be coming through on a regular basis. The only caveat that I have is that it is the summer and moves are rather limiting to say the least, although, over the past couple of days we have seen some good moves, so maybe this year will be slightly different.\r\n\r\nWe have a TRUMP in the White House and he seems incapable of self-control so I guess he will always create news, which could affect the FX markets.\r\n\r\nDespite, a great initial return in pips this month so far, I am sticking to what I said last week. The market is difficult to follow as correlations and relationships are still askew.\r\n\r\nWe are at a RE-ALIGNMENT and until this pushes through properly through all markets we will to a large extent be in a state of flux.\r\n\r\nThere are a lot of consolidations in the markets at the moment. The longer we consolidate the less I am inclined to believe that the moves higher or lower were false breakouts or breakdowns.\r\n\r\nThe EUR/USD will lead the markets through this RE-STRUCTURE &amp; RE-ALIGNMENT if it fails to move beyond 1.2000, and subsequently consolidate there, I will question my overall thoughts regarding a RE-ALIGNMENT. However, with the ECB looking to normalize monetary policy sometime soon, I think that the markets are waiting to fire on all cylinders.\r\n\r\nMoving forward…\r\n\r\nNow that NFP and BOE “Super Thursday” is out of the way, and we have recently heard from the FED, BOJ, RBA and BOC, we should have the basis of at least 60 days directional trading based upon Central Bank policies.\r\n\r\nThis coming week therefore my focus will be on “value entries”. I think that I must focus here based upon the fact we are in August.\r\n\r\nThe EUR cross rates look very attractive still to the long side; EUR/AUD, EUR/CAD and EUR/NZD. Nice pullback entries would be the order of the day.\r\nI also want to add to my position with the EUR/CHF trade on the basis that there are only round number resistances on the way back to 1.2000. I have three x CHF long trades at the moment and would have no problem adding more throughout the summer.\r\n\r\nAway from the EUR. The AUD looks very interesting especially on a breakdown through 0.7840 which was the breakout point.\r\n\r\nWith regards to cable; I am still more of a 1.2000 than a 1.3500 guy. I just don’t get this BREXIT complacency and all the shite talked about a HARD BREXIT versus a SOFT BREXIT. What a load of bollocks. The EUROZONE are NOT going to make BREXIT a walk in the park for one very simple reason… CONTAGION.\r\n\r\nFor now; I am waiting for a nice pullback entry which we will get to re-enter short once again. I am avoiding the GBP crosses at the moment, the GBP/CAD being the exception based on CAD and GBP direction / momentum on the weekly and monthly charts. They are in between levels and rather than waste time on these the EUR crosses offer a better return from analyzing time spent on charts.\r\n\r\nI am also looking to enter CAD short across the board with USD/CAD, CAD/JPY (already in place), GBP/CAD, AUD/USD, CHF/CAD and NZD/CAD trades. Not 100% on EUR/CAD given the single currency bullishness.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.4.2: MARKET SENTIMENT:\r\n\r\nThis is a new addition to this section. The SHORT or LONG indicators in the excel sheet are based on buying and selling pressure algorithms averaged for the time periods. I use these from time to time for confirmation of a trade. In addition, when I see the Short, Medium and Long term periods in alignment this gives me more confidence vis-à-vis a trades direction and who is in control of the currency pair, the bears or the bulls.\r\n<u></u>\r\n\r\n<u><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MKT-SENT-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9822\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/MKT-SENT-06082017-675x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"675\" height=\"1024\" /></a></u>\r\n\r\n4.4.3: CORE TRADES:\r\n\r\nAUD/NZD: (Live)\r\n\r\nPrior to the “Debelle” comments from a couple of weeks ago this pair looked very constructive to the long side. It was whacked lower on the comments. Longer-term fair value for this pair is much higher.\r\n\r\nBasically, it is a slow mover but hopefully before I die it will be back into the 1.20’s again!\r\n\r\nI am going to persevere with this pair… I have for almost two years now!!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nCHF PAIRS: (Live)\r\n\r\nI am building this overall position. We have already taken c.180 pips from existing trades. I will be adding more positions as well as the additional POS trades added after NFP.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nEUR/USD and EUR Cross Rates:\r\n\r\nAt some stage I am going to have to take the plunge and enter long EUR/USD and hold. At some stage this year the ECB is going to taper and normalize. I want to be in position sooner rather than later for this. In addition, it makes sense to add EUR cross rates as well.\r\n\r\nFollowing the NFP move, I now want to see this pair consolidate at lower levels before moving higher once again. This is the pullback that I was waiting for and it has come as a bit of a surprise. The market was very long the single currency, hopefully a lot of the longs will be shaken out with the NFP move and re-balance things a bit.\r\n\r\nGBP/USD and GBP Cross Rates:\r\n\r\nI am waiting on a pullback after the NFP data to set up a batch of shorts.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.4.4: PREMIUM SERVICE – CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE - LIVE TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/LIVE-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9824\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/LIVE-06082017-928x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"928\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\nCURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE – LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/LIMIT-06082017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9823\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/LIMIT-06082017-851x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"851\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE SOAPBOX:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>\r\nWHAT’S NEXT AFTER THE RECENT BIG MOVES</strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nWith a title like that it sounds like I have an end of the world type of prediction to follow… you are safe!\r\n\r\nWe are now into the sleepy summer. There are some risks, most of them are geopolitical.\r\n\r\nI have in the main over recent weeks been looking forward predicting a new world… CENTRAL BANK DIVERGENCE, RE-STRUCTURE, RE-ALIGNMENT of the markets and I still believe we are in the throes of this happening despite the recent 72 hours or so in the Forex Market.\r\n\r\nLet’s recap what happened in the immediate past: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Mark Carney (BOE, Governor), finally came out and said what needed to be said to put the damn bulls back in their boxes for at least this year.</li>\r\n 	<li>We had a blowout NFP number.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThat’s nothing earth shattering. Does the above change my thoughts and views that I have had for the past month or so?\r\n\r\nAbsolutely not; I was bearish and shorting the cable long before “Super Thursday”.\r\n\r\nDid I predict a good NFP?\r\n\r\nI don\'t do predictions and I doubt even David Copperfield or Penn &amp; Teller could magic up an accurate NFP number.\r\n\r\nWe are in transition.\r\n\r\nFrom this Monday I am on 50% leave for the summer until the 1st September. So, what is next?\r\n\r\nOver the next few weeks the big Forex event could be the Jackson Hole Symposium. Initially Mario Draghi (ECB, President) was going to use this event as the place he would talk about the timetable of events within the ECB for a return to interest rate normalization.\r\n\r\nI am not so certain that he will do this. My thought process is basically due to the fact the markets are ready to leap on the back of the single currency and send it to outer space (in forex terms) about 1.2500-1.3000 if the mood takes them. Draghi would literally poop his pants if he thought the EUR/USD would be at 1.2500 in rapid order.\r\n\r\nWe have German elections this Autumn/Fall and whilst German savers would welcome normalization, I would say that EUROZONE exporters primarily based in Germany would be buying “Andrex” and the like, in Costco quantities on a daily basis, as the increase in liquid stools could potentially reach epidemic proportions. Sales of Imodium could go through the roof (This is not investment advice).\r\n\r\nGerman elections is one good reason why Mario Draghi may just provide some B.S. at Jackson Hole.\r\n\r\nMy fear is that “THE DONALD” will create the next big move. It will of course be largely “not surprising” but it will be unpredictable from a timing viewpoint, even though we know about the potential of something happening.\r\n\r\nRight now, given all the geopolitical events in play around the world the markets are complacent. All the U.S. markets are concerned about are 401K valuations and returns, stock valuations mean feck all; we are on the brink once again in my opinion… (RE-STRUCTURE and RE-ALIGNMENT).\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>What about China being declared a currency manipulator, now that they failed to intervene effectively with North Korea?</li>\r\n 	<li>What about China getting huge trade restrictions placed upon them by the U.S.?</li>\r\n 	<li>What about North Korea dropping an ICBN on Japan… by mistake or intentionally?</li>\r\n 	<li>What about North Korea taking aim on the continental United States?</li>\r\n 	<li>What about the Russian / U.S. diplomatic expulsion tit for tat getting out of control spilling over into troubles in the “Old Soviet Block?</li>\r\n 	<li>What happens if the Iran / U.S. nuclear deal blows up?</li>\r\n 	<li>TRUMP has sided with Saudi Arabia over the Qatar terrorism claims. What would happen if this dispute escalates and unsettles stability in the region and subsequently OIL production?</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nI have only highlighted US based geopolitical related issues, as usually these would affect all markets to varying degrees. The chances of something happening could be 50-50 from my perspective, but who knows. I have ignored all the investigations and enquiries that shadow the TRUMP administration, these can just flare up at any time without warning, a tweet could kick it off.\r\n\r\nSo; what am I saying?\r\n\r\nJust be on your toes if you are trading over the next three or four weeks. Many traders are away. Many traders simply do not trade the summer.\r\n\r\nMost risks are similar to what we have every summer…  geopolitical. There are more flare up zones than the ones I have listed above, but I do feel that those areas with a TRUMP involvement are more at risk.\r\n\r\nFrom a trading perspective as I have written earlier we are in the throes of a transition. There are entry “Gifts” as I call them on the horizon. Grab them; the EUR/USD in particular, but hold with wider stops than usual to allow for the very thin trading conditions with lower liquidity than usual.\r\n\r\nTake care, back on September 3rd.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS:</strong><strong> </strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @ThePremService\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\nBLOG VERSION: #144 PREMIUM SERVICE\r\nDATE: 6th August 2017.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','WHAT’S NEXT AFTER THE RECENT BIG MOVES','','publish','open','closed','','whats-next-recent-big-moves','','','2017-08-05 07:38:23','2017-08-05 12:38:23','',0,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?post_type=member_posts&#038;p=9836',0,'member_posts','',0),(9758,1,'2017-07-22 07:28:29','2017-07-22 12:28:29','<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nI must admit that although we are in the summer, the summer doldrums trading experiences that we have seen in past years have not arrived yet. We may have thinner trading conditions and much less than usual liquidity in the market, but the moves are very much still out there.\r\n\r\nThe moves are not all Central Bank initiated, but one could say that the BOC and RBA have had great influences of late in moves surrounding the CAD and AUD. The GBP has BREXIT uncertainties, Theresa May’s tenuous grip on power and we have the BOE “flip-flopping”. The EUR has spiked higher on the news denied twice by the ECB and Draghi that the end of policy accommodation is in sight and that tapering will start and they normalize interest rates.\r\n\r\nSo all in all there is more than enough to feed a hungry market.\r\n\r\nThe winner (if there needs to be one) in all of this is the USD. Basically, it has weakened since “THE DONALD” was sworn in (see USD INDEX (DXY) below).\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDDXY-23072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9733\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDDXY-23072017-1024x508.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"508\" /></a>\r\n\r\nWhen I talk about winners, I am really referring to exporters and keeping the wheels of industry greased and moving increasing the export nations competitive. From this perspective, the U.S. is winning and the EUROZONE is losing.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nOver the past three weeks I have written in the SOAPBOX section of this blog about: -\r\n\r\n1. July 15th - FX MARKET RE-ALIGNMENT.\r\n\r\n2. July 6th - THE TIPPING POINT.\r\n\r\n3. July 1st - Regarding Central Banks, GAME KEEPERS are NOW POACHERS.\r\n\r\nAll three of these articles from this blog are current factors in the market today. I am not looking for a pat on the back but this information is FREE.\r\n\r\nThe reason that I bring this up is because of something that occurred during the week. Like many of you, I subscribe to various market opinion sites for raw data, especially the various international banks around the globe. I use most of this data, especially the bank data to give me contrarian ideas moving forward which I pass on to my PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers.\r\n\r\nHowever, a trial period with an independent global research provider had come to an end. The continuation fees were about CAD$14,500.00 per annum. The information provided was not even FX specific, it was mostly opinion based upon fundamentals and I could not by any stretch of the imagination justify such costs for my business. As I explained to my contact, my Fundamentals emanate primarily from Central bank documentation because it is Central Bank Monetary Policy that fundamentally drives the FX market. The days of Greenspan and Trichet are long gone when an interpreter was required to dig deep to find out what they were saying. Nowadays transparency is the buzz word and the documentation available is clearly set out for all.\r\n\r\nMy fundamental interpretation plus technical set ups to provide trade set ups that can generate $$$ are provided for just CAD$1,250.00 per annum by comparison to the non-accountable fundamental data at CAD$14,500.00 a year that does not give entry or exit levels or follow ups on previous opinions.\r\n\r\nSubscribers to the PREMIUM SERVICE receive detailed actual information that can generate $$$.\r\n\r\nPerhaps I am in the wrong business!!\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> LAST WEEK – MY TAKE ON SOME KEY EVENTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIn no order, here is what floated my boat last week.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>USD: (REPUBLICAN HEALTHCARE PLAN… another rejection)\r\nNZD: (CPi)\r\nAUD: (RBA)\r\nThis all happened in the space of a couple of hours or so.\r\n\r\nLast Monday in between the NZD CPi and the RBA minutes from the last meeting being released the failure to proceed in the current draft was announced and the markets went crazy.\r\n\r\nPersonally; I was out at the time operating with only an iPAD. It was hard to gather data and trade effectively, so I took the cautious route and systematically closed every open trade. In the process, I think I banked about 150 pips but had I been in front of my screens with total access I would have seen more and read some back up and may not have carried out the “LOCK DOWN” move as I could have seen moves across 6 screens, compared to one device. Whilst I banked pips, I think there were about 1,000 additional pips thrown away as the reversal moves were powerful.\r\n\r\nQuite a few European PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers were asleep through it all and woke up to some pleasant surprises the next day.\r\n\r\nPrior to the US news the NZD CPi data surprised most analysts by failing to meet expectations. The NZD pulled back and took the AUD with it. Around the same time as the Health Care news hit the wires the RBA minutes were released and they were more hawkish than the original interest rate statement from a couple of weeks ago.\r\n\r\nThat was double boost to the AUD which was already strengthening on the U.S. news, it took the NZD with it and all the cross rates.\r\n\r\nIt was around the RBA data that I was checking in on my iPAD. The rest is history as they say…. argh!!</li>\r\n 	<li>ECB: (Interest Rate Statement and Press Conference)\r\n\r\nWhat can I say that hasn’t already been said?\r\n\r\nGod love him (Mario Draghi).\r\n\r\nHe tried his best to be DOVISH every step of the way but the markets just did NOT believe a word of it and looking at Draghi when he was talking he looked like he did NOT believe the crap he was spouting.\r\n\r\nEvery man, woman and child, even my dogs Ozzy and Aoife know that the ECB will be tapering sooner rather than later.\r\n\r\nDraghi did his best, spouting words and phrases such as: - 2018, December 2017, next year, extended period of time, not in the foreseeable future etc. etc…\r\n\r\nThe result was the EUR/USD climbed from 1.1480 to 1.1656. Feck knows what would have happened had he been HAWKISH!\r\n\r\nSo; it’s just when and not if. All eyes are now fixed on the Jackson Hole Symposium next month. EUR/USD at 1.2000 is NOT out of the realms of possibilities now. December 2016, it was at 1.0350.</li>\r\n 	<li>GBP: (CPi and Retail Sales)\r\n\r\nBREXIT scares the crap out of me and I believe that the market is just 110% complacent. The UK economy is starting to feel the pressure. Inflation and the relationship between inflation and wages is biting.\r\n\r\nCPi missed and Retail Sales beat. Big fecking deal on the Retail Sales; this in my opinion is mainly tourist driven based upon the UK being a cheap place to visit and one gets mucho £££ now in exchange for whatever.\r\n\r\nCable is under pressure as the news emanating from the BREXIT talks is hardly setting the world on fire and with the UK economic data mainly being poor, I think we are heading much lower again.</li>\r\n 	<li>AUD: (Employment Data)\r\n\r\nFantastic data a huge beat in the jobs numbers. The AUD initially spiked and then fell back overnight (for me) into the ECB press conference. It then rallied on broad continuing USD weakness and rather bizarrely the NZD/USD which had not really matched the upward move of the AUD/USD in recent days took the lead after the ECB, leaving the AUD/USD behind a little.\r\n\r\nWe should keep an eye on these moves moving forward. The charts all look bullish but the moves are not consistent.</li>\r\n 	<li>JPY: (BOJ Rate Statement)\r\n\r\nStop the presses.\r\n\r\nThe BOJ announced that it has extended its target deadline date to 2019 to reach its 2% inflation target.\r\n\r\nI want to comment without swearing…. feck that; Kuroda needs to get his arse in gear and start looking for a new job. I think that I will be six feet under pushing up daises before Japan has 2% inflation. There is more chance of hell freezing over.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>3.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ECON-DATA-23072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9731\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ECON-DATA-23072017-1024x958.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"958\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3.2: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>USD: The big news this week surrounds the USD. This mean more nails in the coffin and could send the DXY towards 90.00.\r\n\r\nConsumer Confidence, an FOMC Rate Statement and Advance GDP are all key events. Plus, not on my chart are Durable Goods plus the usual weekly job numbers and OIL inventory data.\r\n\r\nIt should be an interesting week.\r\n\r\nWill Janet Yellen save or let the USD die? That is the question.\r\n\r\nThe cynic in me says if she wants another turn as FED chair she will kill the USD and please TRUMP. Did someone once state that the FED was independent?</li>\r\n 	<li>GBP: GDP and the Inflation report hearings. These news events both could move the cable exchange rate substantially. Recent economic data (apart from last week’s Retail Sales) has been poor so further bad figures will increase the downside pressure on the cable.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>3.3: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/TCHART-23072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9732\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/TCHART-23072017-1024x847.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"847\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>EUR/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/EURUSD-D-23072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9744\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/EURUSD-D-23072017-1024x553.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"553\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/GBPUSD-D-23072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9745\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/GBPUSD-D-23072017-1024x553.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"553\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/AUDUSD-WEEKLY-23072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9743\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/AUDUSD-WEEKLY-23072017-1024x553.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"553\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/NZDUSD-WEEKLY-23072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9746\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/NZDUSD-WEEKLY-23072017-1024x553.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"553\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCAD-WEEKLY-23072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9747\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCAD-WEEKLY-23072017-1024x553.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"553\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCHF-WEEKLY-23072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9748\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCHF-WEEKLY-23072017-1024x553.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"553\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDJPY-D-23072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9749\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDJPY-D-23072017-1024x553.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"553\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>4.1: WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE?</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber based Forex support service offering not just trade set-ups, but a bunch of different support services that differentiates the PREMIUM SERVICE from other providers, my competitors, that operate in the same space.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.2: PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\nSo; if nothing else, I tell it how it is. I am currently about 50% of my target for this time of the year. I had a poor start to the year and I am now following a vacation and house move, in recovery mode.\r\n\r\nIn 2014, 2015 and 2016 I beat my 10,000 pip per annum objective. There is nothing stopping me doing the same this year as my house move and vacation are both behind me. I will be trading pretty much full time from now on through to the end of 2017.\r\n\r\nIf you want to be a part of what I hope will be a storming end to 2017, login at my website and get subscribed. I mean business from here on in.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nMONTH TO DATE:  +1,598 net pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE:      +4,003 net pips\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>4.3: WANT A PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you would like to be in the monthly draw to win a “FREE 10-WEEK SUBSCRIPTION” to the PREMIUM SERVICE, valued at CAD$500.00, all you should do is subscribe to receive this FREE NEWSLETTER on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nThis can be done as follows: -\r\n\r\nOn my welcome page just below my cube logo is where you complete your subscription.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.4: PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:</u><u>\r\n</u>(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.1: TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n<u>\r\n4.4.2: MARKET SENTIMENT:\r\n\r\n4.4.3: CORE TRADES:</u>\r\n<u>\r\n4.4.4: PREMIUM SERVICE – CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE SOAPBOX:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>\r\nCENTRAL BANK DIVERGENCE IS BACK\r\n</strong>\r\n\r\nThis week I am not writing about the end of the world or anything like that, after two weeks of writing about TIPPING POINTS and STRUCTURAL RE-ALIGNMENTS, to write about DIVERGENCE sounds rather boring by comparison.\r\n\r\nFor about 18 months and to me it does seem a hell of a lot longer, I have been banging on about CENTRAL BANK DIVERGENCE and the possible trades that run alongside it.\r\n\r\nEarlier this year I thought that we had it, but “THE DONALD’S” ineffective management of the U.S. kicked that into touch no matter how aggressive the FED was in the early part of 2017. The USD (DXY) chart from the beginning of the blog is repeated below. It shows that even in a raising of rates scenario a currency can still NOT strengthen. <strong>\r\n\r\n</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDDXY-23072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9733\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDDXY-23072017-1024x508.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"508\" /></a>\r\n\r\n</strong>If you recall at the start of 2017 the FED stood in isolation of the G10 Central Banks. It started a policy of normalization with its interest rate policy. It did this whilst the other central banks inside the G10 stood still being dovish or at best neutral.\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>Three weeks ago, on the 1st of July, I wrote a piece for this section called “THE GAMEKEEPERS are now THE POACHERS”. This was based upon the fact that the previous Central Banks that had remained dovish or neutral were starting to change their policy stance.\r\n\r\nAt an ECB Monetary Policy forum in Sintra, Portugal, ECB Mario Draghi, BOE Mark Carney, BOC Stephen Poloz and BOJ Haruhiko Kuroda were all present and gave speeches.\r\n\r\nDraghi, Poloz and Carney talked about a change in policy.\r\n\r\n<strong>DRAGHI (ECB)</strong> – Basically his comments were walked back inside 24 hours as the single currency went on the rampage.\r\n\r\nAt his Press Conference last Thursday, Draghi did all he could to talk the EUR/USD, down, but to no avail. The market smelt blood and did NOT believe the dovish comments made and as a result the single currency strengthened across the board.\r\n\r\nIt now looks like The Jackson Hole Symposium next month and the October ECB meeting will be the times that the change in ECB policy will be discussed and details provided to the markets.\r\n\r\nThe single currency has moved from 1.0340 a to 1.1680, that is about 1,300 pips since December 2016.\r\n\r\nHow far will it go on ECB tapering and the beginning of interest rate normalization, I think 1.2600 is possible when all said and done. That is the 61.8% retracement from the 1.3990 highs in 2014 to the December 2016 lows of 1.0340.\r\n\r\n\r\n<strong>POLOZ (BOC)</strong> – The man of action. He said rates were going to rise and they did by 0.25%. The move surrounding the hype and the actual rate increase effect was from 1.3550 to 1.2550, 1,000 pips or $0.10 cents.\r\n\r\nHoly Mother of God, back in the day you would be lucky to see a $0.10 cent move for nothing less than 1.0% move in interest rates not for only a 0.25% hike. Is it any wonder Poloz appears happy at the moment with a “One and done” approach.\r\n\r\n\r\n<strong>CARNEY (BOE)</strong> – The “Flip-Flopper” was at it again. The week prior he held rates unchanged at the BOE. Admittedly the BOE vote at that time was 5-3 in favour of leaving rates unchanged although from the outside at that time Carney looked under pressure.\r\n\r\nA week later he’s talking about possible hikes into the end of 2017. A few days later after Sintra more bad economic data is released in the UK and rate hikes are once again off the agenda. In fact, one or two of the 3 from 5-3 MPC vote have subsequently now walked back their vote to say they would now not raise interest rates in the UK. But this does NOT stop the speculation.\r\n\r\n<strong>KURODA (BOJ)</strong> – Nothing new from yer man. He still needs bridgework on his teeth and basically Japan’s low rate policy remains in place…. unchanged.\r\n\r\n\r\nSince Sintra, we have heard from Dr. Philip Lowe, Governor from the RBA who surprised analysts by deciding to remain neutral on interest rates. This was only very recently re-emphasized by his deputy Guy Debelle, who told financial analysts just because other Central Banks are changing policy and moving on rates doesn’t mean the RBA should as well.\r\n\r\nThe way I look at this is that, the RBA have moved to neutral and are now firm neutral. It was only a short while ago with commodity prices struggling there were calls for a cut in interest rates and the reason that did not happen was because it would fuel the housing bubble in the Sydney market.\r\n\r\nA RBNZ spokesman was also on the wires stating that the RBNZ is not worried by the strength of the Kiwi dollar.\r\n\r\nOK…\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nThere is movement and a stance change made or in the works in the next 6 months from, the ECB, the BOC, the RBA and the RBNZ.\r\n\r\nThe BOE, BOJ and SNB are in my eyes are not going to change.\r\n\r\nWhat about the FED?\r\n\r\nThis is where it gets interesting. The Fed has changed its approach and has walked back from its hawkish stance on raising rates. Because of this the USD (DXY) has continued its fall that has been in effect since the start of 2017.\r\n\r\nWe therefore have a DIVERGENCE TRADE possibility.\r\n\r\nIt would be very easy to trade the DXY but we should be smarter than that given the positions of the various USD major Central Banks.\r\n\r\nUSD (DXY) basket weighted as follows: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>EUR 57.6%</li>\r\n 	<li>JPY 13.6%</li>\r\n 	<li>GBP 11.9%</li>\r\n 	<li>CAD 9.1%</li>\r\n 	<li>SEK 4.2%</li>\r\n 	<li>CHF 3.6%</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nAs we know the JPY does its own thing most of the time and aligns with equities and bonds and can move in opposite directions to the DXY.\r\n\r\nThe GBP is under severe pressure from several factors that could see it move in an opposite direction to the DXY.\r\n\r\nTherefore roughly 25% of the index could trade opposite to the index ‘s direction. It would have an influence but maybe not a substantial one but an influence we should take into consideration.\r\n\r\nAt the start of 2017, I would never have thought that the DIVERGENCE trade would be against a weak USD, my thought process was always against a strong USD. But here we are with USD weakness.\r\n\r\nPick your pair carefully and if FED policy remains as is, all is good.\r\n\r\nBear in mind the next FOMC interest rate statement is this Wednesday, look for clues in the statement.\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #246 FREE NEWSLETTER\r\nDATE: 23rd July 2017.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','CENTRAL BANK DIVERGENCE IS BACK','','publish','open','closed','','central-bank-divergence-back','','','2017-07-22 07:28:29','2017-07-22 12:28:29','',0,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?p=9758',0,'post','',0),(9759,1,'2017-07-22 07:28:29','2017-07-22 12:28:29','<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nI must admit that although we are in the summer, the summer doldrums trading experiences that we have seen in past years have not arrived yet. We may have thinner trading conditions and much less than usual liquidity in the market, but the moves are very much still out there.\r\n\r\nThe moves are not all Central Bank initiated, but one could say that the BOC and RBA have had great influences of late in moves surrounding the CAD and AUD. The GBP has BREXIT uncertainties, Theresa May’s tenuous grip on power and we have the BOE “flip-flopping”. The EUR has spiked higher on the news denied twice by the ECB and Draghi that the end of policy accommodation is in sight and that tapering will start and they normalize interest rates.\r\n\r\nSo all in all there is more than enough to feed a hungry market.\r\n\r\nThe winner (if there needs to be one) in all of this is the USD. Basically, it has weakened since “THE DONALD” was sworn in (see USD INDEX (DXY) below).\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDDXY-23072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9733\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDDXY-23072017-1024x508.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"508\" /></a>\r\n\r\nWhen I talk about winners, I am really referring to exporters and keeping the wheels of industry greased and moving increasing the export nations competitive. From this perspective, the U.S. is winning and the EUROZONE is losing.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nOver the past three weeks I have written in the SOAPBOX section of this blog about: -\r\n\r\n1. July 15th - FX MARKET RE-ALIGNMENT.\r\n\r\n2. July 6th - THE TIPPING POINT.\r\n\r\n3. July 1st - Regarding Central Banks, GAME KEEPERS are NOW POACHERS.\r\n\r\nAll three of these articles from this blog are current factors in the market today. I am not looking for a pat on the back but this information is FREE.\r\n\r\nThe reason that I bring this up is because of something that occurred during the week. Like many of you, I subscribe to various market opinion sites for raw data, especially the various international banks around the globe. I use most of this data, especially the bank data to give me contrarian ideas moving forward which I pass on to my PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers.\r\n\r\nHowever, a trial period with an independent global research provider had come to an end. The continuation fees were about CAD$14,500.00 per annum. The information provided was not even FX specific, it was mostly opinion based upon fundamentals and I could not by any stretch of the imagination justify such costs for my business. As I explained to my contact, my Fundamentals emanate primarily from Central bank documentation because it is Central Bank Monetary Policy that fundamentally drives the FX market. The days of Greenspan and Trichet are long gone when an interpreter was required to dig deep to find out what they were saying. Nowadays transparency is the buzz word and the documentation available is clearly set out for all.\r\n\r\nMy fundamental interpretation plus technical set ups to provide trade set ups that can generate $$$ are provided for just CAD$1,250.00 per annum by comparison to the non-accountable fundamental data at CAD$14,500.00 a year that does not give entry or exit levels or follow ups on previous opinions.\r\n\r\nSubscribers to the PREMIUM SERVICE receive detailed actual information that can generate $$$.\r\n\r\nPerhaps I am in the wrong business!!\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> LAST WEEK – MY TAKE ON SOME KEY EVENTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIn no order, here is what floated my boat last week.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>USD: (REPUBLICAN HEALTHCARE PLAN… another rejection)\r\nNZD: (CPi)\r\nAUD: (RBA)\r\nThis all happened in the space of a couple of hours or so.\r\n\r\nLast Monday in between the NZD CPi and the RBA minutes from the last meeting being released the failure to proceed in the current draft was announced and the markets went crazy.\r\n\r\nPersonally; I was out at the time operating with only an iPAD. It was hard to gather data and trade effectively, so I took the cautious route and systematically closed every open trade. In the process, I think I banked about 150 pips but had I been in front of my screens with total access I would have seen more and read some back up and may not have carried out the “LOCK DOWN” move as I could have seen moves across 6 screens, compared to one device. Whilst I banked pips, I think there were about 1,000 additional pips thrown away as the reversal moves were powerful.\r\n\r\nQuite a few European PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers were asleep through it all and woke up to some pleasant surprises the next day.\r\n\r\nPrior to the US news the NZD CPi data surprised most analysts by failing to meet expectations. The NZD pulled back and took the AUD with it. Around the same time as the Health Care news hit the wires the RBA minutes were released and they were more hawkish than the original interest rate statement from a couple of weeks ago.\r\n\r\nThat was double boost to the AUD which was already strengthening on the U.S. news, it took the NZD with it and all the cross rates.\r\n\r\nIt was around the RBA data that I was checking in on my iPAD. The rest is history as they say…. argh!!</li>\r\n 	<li>ECB: (Interest Rate Statement and Press Conference)\r\n\r\nWhat can I say that hasn’t already been said?\r\n\r\nGod love him (Mario Draghi).\r\n\r\nHe tried his best to be DOVISH every step of the way but the markets just did NOT believe a word of it and looking at Draghi when he was talking he looked like he did NOT believe the crap he was spouting.\r\n\r\nEvery man, woman and child, even my dogs Ozzy and Aoife know that the ECB will be tapering sooner rather than later.\r\n\r\nDraghi did his best, spouting words and phrases such as: - 2018, December 2017, next year, extended period of time, not in the foreseeable future etc. etc…\r\n\r\nThe result was the EUR/USD climbed from 1.1480 to 1.1656. Feck knows what would have happened had he been HAWKISH!\r\n\r\nSo; it’s just when and not if. All eyes are now fixed on the Jackson Hole Symposium next month. EUR/USD at 1.2000 is NOT out of the realms of possibilities now. December 2016, it was at 1.0350.</li>\r\n 	<li>GBP: (CPi and Retail Sales)\r\n\r\nBREXIT scares the crap out of me and I believe that the market is just 110% complacent. The UK economy is starting to feel the pressure. Inflation and the relationship between inflation and wages is biting.\r\n\r\nCPi missed and Retail Sales beat. Big fecking deal on the Retail Sales; this in my opinion is mainly tourist driven based upon the UK being a cheap place to visit and one gets mucho £££ now in exchange for whatever.\r\n\r\nCable is under pressure as the news emanating from the BREXIT talks is hardly setting the world on fire and with the UK economic data mainly being poor, I think we are heading much lower again.</li>\r\n 	<li>AUD: (Employment Data)\r\n\r\nFantastic data a huge beat in the jobs numbers. The AUD initially spiked and then fell back overnight (for me) into the ECB press conference. It then rallied on broad continuing USD weakness and rather bizarrely the NZD/USD which had not really matched the upward move of the AUD/USD in recent days took the lead after the ECB, leaving the AUD/USD behind a little.\r\n\r\nWe should keep an eye on these moves moving forward. The charts all look bullish but the moves are not consistent.</li>\r\n 	<li>JPY: (BOJ Rate Statement)\r\n\r\nStop the presses.\r\n\r\nThe BOJ announced that it has extended its target deadline date to 2019 to reach its 2% inflation target.\r\n\r\nI want to comment without swearing…. feck that; Kuroda needs to get his arse in gear and start looking for a new job. I think that I will be six feet under pushing up daises before Japan has 2% inflation. There is more chance of hell freezing over.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>3.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ECON-DATA-23072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9731\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ECON-DATA-23072017-1024x958.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"958\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3.2: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>USD: The big news this week surrounds the USD. This mean more nails in the coffin and could send the DXY towards 90.00.\r\n\r\nConsumer Confidence, an FOMC Rate Statement and Advance GDP are all key events. Plus, not on my chart are Durable Goods plus the usual weekly job numbers and OIL inventory data.\r\n\r\nIt should be an interesting week.\r\n\r\nWill Janet Yellen save or let the USD die? That is the question.\r\n\r\nThe cynic in me says if she wants another turn as FED chair she will kill the USD and please TRUMP. Did someone once state that the FED was independent?</li>\r\n 	<li>GBP: GDP and the Inflation report hearings. These news events both could move the cable exchange rate substantially. Recent economic data (apart from last week’s Retail Sales) has been poor so further bad figures will increase the downside pressure on the cable.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>3.3: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/TCHART-23072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9732\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/TCHART-23072017-1024x847.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"847\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>EUR/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/EURUSD-D-23072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9744\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/EURUSD-D-23072017-1024x553.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"553\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/GBPUSD-D-23072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9745\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/GBPUSD-D-23072017-1024x553.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"553\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/AUDUSD-WEEKLY-23072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9743\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/AUDUSD-WEEKLY-23072017-1024x553.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"553\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/NZDUSD-WEEKLY-23072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9746\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/NZDUSD-WEEKLY-23072017-1024x553.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"553\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCAD-WEEKLY-23072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9747\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCAD-WEEKLY-23072017-1024x553.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"553\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCHF-WEEKLY-23072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9748\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCHF-WEEKLY-23072017-1024x553.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"553\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDJPY-D-23072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9749\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDJPY-D-23072017-1024x553.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"553\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>4.1: WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE?</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber based Forex support service offering not just trade set-ups, but a bunch of different support services that differentiates the PREMIUM SERVICE from other providers, my competitors, that operate in the same space.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.2: PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\nSo; if nothing else, I tell it how it is. I am currently about 50% of my target for this time of the year. I had a poor start to the year and I am now following a vacation and house move, in recovery mode.\r\n\r\nIn 2014, 2015 and 2016 I beat my 10,000 pip per annum objective. There is nothing stopping me doing the same this year as my house move and vacation are both behind me. I will be trading pretty much full time from now on through to the end of 2017.\r\n\r\nIf you want to be a part of what I hope will be a storming end to 2017, login at my website and get subscribed. I mean business from here on in.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nMONTH TO DATE:  +1,598 net pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE:      +4,003 net pips\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>4.3: WANT A PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you would like to be in the monthly draw to win a “FREE 10-WEEK SUBSCRIPTION” to the PREMIUM SERVICE, valued at CAD$500.00, all you should do is subscribe to receive this FREE NEWSLETTER on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nThis can be done as follows: -\r\n\r\nOn my welcome page just below my cube logo is where you complete your subscription.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.4: PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:</u><u>\r\n</u>(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.1: TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n<u>\r\n4.4.2: MARKET SENTIMENT:\r\n\r\n4.4.3: CORE TRADES:</u>\r\n<u>\r\n4.4.4: PREMIUM SERVICE – CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE SOAPBOX:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>\r\nCENTRAL BANK DIVERGENCE IS BACK\r\n</strong>\r\n\r\nThis week I am not writing about the end of the world or anything like that, after two weeks of writing about TIPPING POINTS and STRUCTURAL RE-ALIGNMENTS, to write about DIVERGENCE sounds rather boring by comparison.\r\n\r\nFor about 18 months and to me it does seem a hell of a lot longer, I have been banging on about CENTRAL BANK DIVERGENCE and the possible trades that run alongside it.\r\n\r\nEarlier this year I thought that we had it, but “THE DONALD’S” ineffective management of the U.S. kicked that into touch no matter how aggressive the FED was in the early part of 2017. The USD (DXY) chart from the beginning of the blog is repeated below. It shows that even in a raising of rates scenario a currency can still NOT strengthen. <strong>\r\n\r\n</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDDXY-23072017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9733\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDDXY-23072017-1024x508.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"508\" /></a>\r\n\r\n</strong>If you recall at the start of 2017 the FED stood in isolation of the G10 Central Banks. It started a policy of normalization with its interest rate policy. It did this whilst the other central banks inside the G10 stood still being dovish or at best neutral.\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>Three weeks ago, on the 1st of July, I wrote a piece for this section called “THE GAMEKEEPERS are now THE POACHERS”. This was based upon the fact that the previous Central Banks that had remained dovish or neutral were starting to change their policy stance.\r\n\r\nAt an ECB Monetary Policy forum in Sintra, Portugal, ECB Mario Draghi, BOE Mark Carney, BOC Stephen Poloz and BOJ Haruhiko Kuroda were all present and gave speeches.\r\n\r\nDraghi, Poloz and Carney talked about a change in policy.\r\n\r\n<strong>DRAGHI (ECB)</strong> – Basically his comments were walked back inside 24 hours as the single currency went on the rampage.\r\n\r\nAt his Press Conference last Thursday, Draghi did all he could to talk the EUR/USD, down, but to no avail. The market smelt blood and did NOT believe the dovish comments made and as a result the single currency strengthened across the board.\r\n\r\nIt now looks like The Jackson Hole Symposium next month and the October ECB meeting will be the times that the change in ECB policy will be discussed and details provided to the markets.\r\n\r\nThe single currency has moved from 1.0340 a to 1.1680, that is about 1,300 pips since December 2016.\r\n\r\nHow far will it go on ECB tapering and the beginning of interest rate normalization, I think 1.2600 is possible when all said and done. That is the 61.8% retracement from the 1.3990 highs in 2014 to the December 2016 lows of 1.0340.\r\n\r\n\r\n<strong>POLOZ (BOC)</strong> – The man of action. He said rates were going to rise and they did by 0.25%. The move surrounding the hype and the actual rate increase effect was from 1.3550 to 1.2550, 1,000 pips or $0.10 cents.\r\n\r\nHoly Mother of God, back in the day you would be lucky to see a $0.10 cent move for nothing less than 1.0% move in interest rates not for only a 0.25% hike. Is it any wonder Poloz appears happy at the moment with a “One and done” approach.\r\n\r\n\r\n<strong>CARNEY (BOE)</strong> – The “Flip-Flopper” was at it again. The week prior he held rates unchanged at the BOE. Admittedly the BOE vote at that time was 5-3 in favour of leaving rates unchanged although from the outside at that time Carney looked under pressure.\r\n\r\nA week later he’s talking about possible hikes into the end of 2017. A few days later after Sintra more bad economic data is released in the UK and rate hikes are once again off the agenda. In fact, one or two of the 3 from 5-3 MPC vote have subsequently now walked back their vote to say they would now not raise interest rates in the UK. But this does NOT stop the speculation.\r\n\r\n<strong>KURODA (BOJ)</strong> – Nothing new from yer man. He still needs bridgework on his teeth and basically Japan’s low rate policy remains in place…. unchanged.\r\n\r\n\r\nSince Sintra, we have heard from Dr. Philip Lowe, Governor from the RBA who surprised analysts by deciding to remain neutral on interest rates. This was only very recently re-emphasized by his deputy Guy Debelle, who told financial analysts just because other Central Banks are changing policy and moving on rates doesn’t mean the RBA should as well.\r\n\r\nThe way I look at this is that, the RBA have moved to neutral and are now firm neutral. It was only a short while ago with commodity prices struggling there were calls for a cut in interest rates and the reason that did not happen was because it would fuel the housing bubble in the Sydney market.\r\n\r\nA RBNZ spokesman was also on the wires stating that the RBNZ is not worried by the strength of the Kiwi dollar.\r\n\r\nOK…\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nThere is movement and a stance change made or in the works in the next 6 months from, the ECB, the BOC, the RBA and the RBNZ.\r\n\r\nThe BOE, BOJ and SNB are in my eyes are not going to change.\r\n\r\nWhat about the FED?\r\n\r\nThis is where it gets interesting. The Fed has changed its approach and has walked back from its hawkish stance on raising rates. Because of this the USD (DXY) has continued its fall that has been in effect since the start of 2017.\r\n\r\nWe therefore have a DIVERGENCE TRADE possibility.\r\n\r\nIt would be very easy to trade the DXY but we should be smarter than that given the positions of the various USD major Central Banks.\r\n\r\nUSD (DXY) basket weighted as follows: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>EUR 57.6%</li>\r\n 	<li>JPY 13.6%</li>\r\n 	<li>GBP 11.9%</li>\r\n 	<li>CAD 9.1%</li>\r\n 	<li>SEK 4.2%</li>\r\n 	<li>CHF 3.6%</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nAs we know the JPY does its own thing most of the time and aligns with equities and bonds and can move in opposite directions to the DXY.\r\n\r\nThe GBP is under severe pressure from several factors that could see it move in an opposite direction to the DXY.\r\n\r\nTherefore roughly 25% of the index could trade opposite to the index ‘s direction. It would have an influence but maybe not a substantial one but an influence we should take into consideration.\r\n\r\nAt the start of 2017, I would never have thought that the DIVERGENCE trade would be against a weak USD, my thought process was always against a strong USD. But here we are with USD weakness.\r\n\r\nPick your pair carefully and if FED policy remains as is, all is good.\r\n\r\nBear in mind the next FOMC interest rate statement is this Wednesday, look for clues in the statement.\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #246 FREE NEWSLETTER\r\nDATE: 23rd July 2017.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','CENTRAL BANK DIVERGENCE IS BACK','','inherit','closed','closed','','9758-revision-v1','','','2017-07-22 07:28:29','2017-07-22 12:28:29','',9758,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/9758-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(9761,1,'2017-07-29 06:58:05','2017-07-29 11:58:05','','ECON DATA 30072017','','inherit','open','closed','','econ-data-30072017','','','2017-07-29 09:42:06','2017-07-29 14:42:06','',9780,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ECON-DATA-30072017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(9762,1,'2017-07-29 06:58:11','2017-07-29 11:58:11','','TCHART 30072017','','inherit','open','closed','','tchart-30072017','','','2017-07-29 09:42:33','2017-07-29 14:42:33','',9780,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/TCHART-30072017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(9765,1,'2017-07-29 06:58:30','2017-07-29 11:58:30','','SENTIMENT 30072017','','inherit','open','closed','','sentiment-30072017','','','2017-07-29 09:45:19','2017-07-29 14:45:19','',9780,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/SENTIMENT-30072017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(9766,1,'2017-07-29 06:58:34','2017-07-29 11:58:34','','UK ECON FUNDAMENTALS 30072017','','inherit','open','closed','','uk-econ-fundamentals-30072017','','','2017-07-29 09:47:28','2017-07-29 14:47:28','',9780,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/UK-ECON-FUNDAMENTALS-30072017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(9773,1,'2017-07-29 06:59:42','2017-07-29 11:59:42','','AUDUSD D 30072017','','inherit','open','closed','','audusd-d-30072017','','','2017-07-29 09:43:24','2017-07-29 14:43:24','',9780,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/AUDUSD-D-30072017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(9774,1,'2017-07-29 06:59:48','2017-07-29 11:59:48','','EURUSD D 30072017','','inherit','open','closed','','eurusd-d-30072017','','','2017-07-29 09:42:54','2017-07-29 14:42:54','',9780,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/EURUSD-D-30072017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(9775,1,'2017-07-29 06:59:53','2017-07-29 11:59:53','','GBPUSD D 30072017','','inherit','open','closed','','gbpusd-d-30072017','','','2017-07-29 09:43:08','2017-07-29 14:43:08','',9780,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/GBPUSD-D-30072017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(9776,1,'2017-07-29 06:59:58','2017-07-29 11:59:58','','NZDUSD D 30072017','','inherit','open','closed','','nzdusd-d-30072017','','','2017-07-29 09:43:37','2017-07-29 14:43:37','',9780,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/NZDUSD-D-30072017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(9777,1,'2017-07-29 07:00:05','2017-07-29 12:00:05','','USDCAD D 30072017','','inherit','open','closed','','usdcad-d-30072017','','','2017-07-29 09:43:50','2017-07-29 14:43:50','',9780,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCAD-D-30072017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(9778,1,'2017-07-29 07:00:12','2017-07-29 12:00:12','','USDCHF D 30072017','','inherit','open','closed','','usdchf-d-30072017','','','2017-07-29 09:44:02','2017-07-29 14:44:02','',9780,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDCHF-D-30072017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(9779,1,'2017-07-29 07:00:17','2017-07-29 12:00:17','','USDJPY D 30072017','','inherit','open','closed','','usdjpy-d-30072017','','','2017-07-29 09:44:17','2017-07-29 14:44:17','',9780,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/USDJPY-D-30072017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),