(9963,1,'2017-09-02 10:13:11','2017-09-02 15:13:11','&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nApart from this being the first post following my short summer break from weekly blog posts, it is also “Papa was a Rollin’ stone day” (The Temptations song from way back in 1972 re-defined the opening to a song with an extended instrumental introduction. The first line of which was “It was the 3rd of September….”).\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nIt is great to back in blogging mode once again and there are so many hot topics to choose from to be my first SOAPBOX article, BREXIT, the ECB, THE DONALD plus that fecking idiot in North Korea!\r\n\r\nHowever, my excitement does not stop there; to keep matters spiced up, I have made a couple of amendments to the blog format and I am also pleased to announce a lower cost entry subscription fee to enable you to join to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, in fact, you can get the first 10 days for just CAD$10.00.\r\n\r\nMoving on up…\r\n\r\nWhen the last “DOUBLE IT UP” promotion was in place, I received several emails from potential subscribers who wanted THE PREMIUM SERVICE to offer a lower cost option to subscribe. After donning my thinking cap, I have come up with something that I hope will answer most, if not all the emails received, and, I am excited with the subscription options that are now in place (see section 4.2 below).\r\n\r\nFor added excitement, I have added a short “FALL” promotion as well to coincide with my return (see section 4.3 below).\r\n\r\n<strong><u>PLEASE NOTE</u></strong>: As I am launching revised subscription plans and a new subscriber promotion for this week only the PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBER version will be open on all versions “FREE NEWSLETTER” version of the WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU.\r\n\r\nStepping back…\r\n\r\nI have made some subtle changes to the format and running order of the blog and I have removed some content from the “FREE SUBSCRIBER” versions of this blog and added them to the “PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS ONLY SECTION”.\r\n\r\nFinally, although having been away from blogging I have still been trading through the PREMIUM SERVICE and in August I added 2,189 pips to the annual total against my objective of 10,000 pips. This addition of pips is despite my continual remarks about trading difficulties. What is really annoying is, I walked away from about 1,000 pips via early exits of trades…argh!! However, one should never complain about banking $$$ and pips, regardless of the amounts or numbers.\r\n\r\nTherefore, from the final four months of 2017 I require 3,669 additional pips to reach my annual objective. Should I achieve the 10,000-pip total it will be the 4th consecutive year to do so,  in fact since the PREMIUM SERVICE started so far it has always met its objective. This year has been a real challenge though for one reason or another.\r\n\r\nAs I continually mention to my subscribers it is a difficult marketplace from within to trade, and, frankly I do not see it changing for the remainder of this year. With all the ups and downs, uncertainties and geopolitical issues plus the DONALD’S twitter feed, the way I have adjusted my trade style and the way I look at trades has altered, if I compare 2016 with today. Back in 2014 when I thought it was hard it was really a breeze!  Basically, I am now more than happy to do a Steve Miller and “Take the money and run”, when in previous years I may have sat in trades a little longer. I do still sit in trades but frankly most of the time it is  the “Grab and Go” approach that works best. It is just NOT my usual style and it annoys me to “Grab and Go” when on occasions many pips are left on the table.\r\n\r\nNevertheless, onwards and upwards the PREMIUM SERVICE goes and I am delighted.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> LAST WEEK – MY TAKE ON SOME KEY EVENTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIn no particular order, here is what floated my boat last week.\r\n\r\n<strong>USD: Non-Farm Payrolls data.</strong>\r\n\r\nFirstly, ADP Non-Farm numbers released last Wednesday were blow out numbers, they were really good at 237k versus estimates of 185k. In previous months however, the correlation between ADP and NFP numbers being somewhat in directional alignment has just not happened. ADP has been a great contrarian indicator in recent months and it did not fail to live up to its new-found reputation as NFP missed.\r\n\r\nThe USD was crushed but then the DXY climbed back as the ECB fearful of strength returning to the EUR like a Forex Tsunami next week announced that Tapering would not be ready until later this year in December.\r\n\r\nThe cynic in me sees this as timing to coincide with a possible FED rate hike. If the FED were ever going to raise again in 2017 it would be December. This should negate some of the EUR strength if the FED raised US rates around the same time as ECB tapering\r\n\r\n“Scott!” …. How can you be so cynical?\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>CAD: GDP.</strong>\r\n\r\nReally good data. I sit in the camp that the BOC will be raising rates once again before the end of 2017. I talk about this in greater detail in section 3.2 of the blog.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>GBP: BREXIT.</strong>\r\n\r\nBREXIT negotiations appear to be along the lines of a west-end farce.\r\n\r\nI am NOT surprised, and neither should you be, we are watching career politicians at work. They only know how to attribute blame; they are simply NOT negotiators or problem solvers. This hangs over the UK like the “Sword of Damocles”.\r\n\r\nI remain bearish cable longer-term and I stand by everything I have written in earlier blogs about timings and FX targets. I am still to this day astonished by the continual reference to “HARD or SOFT BREXIT”. For crying out loud; there is NO SOFT BREXIT. The EUROZONE cannot afford a SOFT BREXIT because it could potentially create a CONTAGION.\r\n\r\nI am now in the camp that there will be NO BREXIT deal achieved.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS:</strong>\r\n<strong>  NORTH KOREA:</strong>\r\n\r\nKIM JONG-UN will just not “bend the knee”. Even John Snow bent the knee!! This fecker could strike Guam despite all the political pressure and efforts pushed upon him. He is as much of a loose cannon, in fact probably a lot more if the truth be known than DONALD TRUMP.\r\n\r\nUnlike OBAMA I believe that TRUMP will eventually act against North Korea. I think, and I hate to write this. it’s not “if” but “when” TRUMP acts. Commencing hostilities is a difficult decision with wide ranging ramifications especially as South Korea could come off the worst if missiles are fired in anger. At the end of the day something or someone has got to give.\r\n\r\nAfter he fired missiles over Japan just after the Asian markets open last Monday, that session and the European session that followed sold off like crazy, they were very volatile sessions. From a Forex perspective, the JPY and CHF both strengthened to key support levels taking their crosses with them. The US markets opened much lower, the DXY was at critical support, but then as usual even with the political rhetoric flying left, right and centre, US equities shrugged it all off and rebounded off the triple digit lows to end the day in the green. The “Buy the Dip” mentality always seems to be a successful trade on Wall Street regardless of what is going on. We should trade in the full knowledge that this situation could escalate and kick off very quickly at any time.\r\n\r\nIt beggars belief that with a “nutter” like JONG-UN allowed basically a free reign, the markets carry on as if its birthdays and Christmas rolled into one. JONG-UN could not give a rat’s ass if hundreds of thousands of his people starve to death on the streets. As long as, he and his million people plus strong army are fed that all that counts. This mentality is beyond traditional negotiation. History shows that and JONG-UN knows that.\r\n\r\nThis whole situation is making me think that I need to look at placing ARMAGEDDON TRADES back in the frame.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>3.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/ECON-DATA-03092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9944\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/ECON-DATA-03092017-1024x742.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"742\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3.2: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-03092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9945\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-03092017-1024x844.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"844\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3.3: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:\r\n\r\n</u>Economic data releases this week are a bit thin on the ground.\r\n\r\nHowever, here are my picks of the upcoming week.\r\n\r\n<strong>AUD</strong>: A very busy week for Australian data. We have the RBA Rate Statement, GDP, Retail Sales and the Trade balance all scheduled to be released.\r\n\r\nIf you study bank opinions, follow twitter posts and listen to the financial media, you should be in the same place as I am with regards to the AUD currency and that is; a state of confusion.\r\n\r\nThe RBA without doubt do not want to “Rock the Boat”. Philip Lowe, RBA Governor, has stated that the RBA do not want to start raising interest rates despite a housing bubble in Sydney and to some extent in Melbourne. He favours a status quo on monetary policy, by remaining very much neutral.\r\n\r\nEconomically however, data from Australia has been on balance good, although this good data has been fueling areas of the economy that the RBA does not want to fuel. Something has got to give.\r\n\r\nFrom the AUD/USD perspective a break above the 0.8060 level would break above recent highs and would have the RBA toilets fully occupied in seconds as the committee debates the actions required to peg it back from appreciating too far.\r\n\r\n<strong>GBP:</strong> Construction and Services PMi are the highlights for UK data. As always, I am in the camp of “Construction” missing and “Services” beating the market expectations. As long as the run of mixed but on balance poorer economic data continues in the UK combined with farcical BREXIT negotiations my FUNDAMENTAL views of GBP/USD at 1.2000 and EUR/GBP at parity remain. Coming back from vacation the hardest bit for me to do it to enter the trades I want at value prices for the GBP crosses.\r\n\r\nPREMIUM SERVICE subscribers know that after NFP I was really frustrated that I could not achieve my targeted entry levels.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>CAD</strong>: It’s a big, big week for the Canadian economy. Trade Balance, Jobs data and a BOC Rate Statement all feature this week. On the back of stellar GDP growth announced last week, it is heady times for the CAD.\r\n\r\nI am not expecting an interest rate hike this month but I am preparing mentally for one before the end of 2017. I see the USD/CAD moving a lot lower. Out of the initial 0.25% hike in rates the CAD strengthened again the USD by about 10 cents overall. This next rate hike by the BOC bake to 1.0% could see a further 5/6 cents in my opinion, with the USD/CAD sitting below the psychological level of 1.2000 when it’s all said and done.\r\n\r\n<strong>EUR:</strong> God help the poor fecker, Mario Draghi must liken his press conferences to being put in front of an attack by the Dothraki. His recent past public appearances have been improving but basically since the last ECB Press conference and his Sintra speeches he has been trying to climb out the hole he dug for himself.\r\n\r\nBeing balanced and defending Draghi for a moment what he had to do could be likened to trying to sell ice-creams to Eskimos. He was on a hiding to nothing. The markets are seeking cheap profits and the ECB is fair game as everyone knows that the ECB accommodative program is coming to an end very soon. No matter what Draghi says or does the markets smell blood.\r\n\r\nPotentially, the EUR/USD could be at 1.2500 very quickly, indeed well before tapering starts, however in an interesting move around last Friday’s NFP release the ECB starting with Ewald Nowotny (Austrian CB Governor), started a series of planned (in my opinion) press releases about tapering and how the message needs to be delivered.\r\n\r\nI am covering this in the SOAPBOX section later in blog (Section 5).\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>4.1: PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber based Forex support service offering my suggested trade set-ups and market commentary.\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nAUGUST TOTAL:     +2,189 net pips\r\nMONTH TO DATE:  +0 pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE:      +6,331 net pips\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs on my website  <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n\r\n<u>4.2: NEW SUBSCRIPTION OPTIONS:\r\n\r\n</u><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/SUBSCRIPTION-CHANGES-FALL2017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9907\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/SUBSCRIPTION-CHANGES-FALL2017-799x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"799\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u>4.3: CURRENT SUBSCRIPTION PROMOTION:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/FALL2017-PROMOTION.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9908\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/FALL2017-PROMOTION-788x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"788\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>\r\n4.4: WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you would like to be in the monthly draw to win a “FREE 30 DAY SUBSCRIPTION” to the PREMIUM SERVICE, valued at CAD$150.00, all you should do is subscribe to receive this FREE NEWSLETTER on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nThis can be done as follows: -\r\n\r\nOn my welcome page just below my cube logo is where you complete your subscription.\r\n\r\nThis month’s winner of the 30 DAY PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION is: -\r\n\r\ndavid*******@gmail.com\r\n\r\nBy the time the blog is posted David should be fully in position to take advantage of his FREE subscription.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>4.5: PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:</u><u>\r\n</u>(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4.5.1: TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\nLooking back on August, I know that I criticized the markets trading conditions a great deal. It was a hard month with lower liquidity and geopolitical news thrown in as well, nevertheless all things considered; to end the month with a net pip increase of 2,189 pips was a great feeling.\r\n\r\nBreaking down the numbers, most income and pips were almost equal between FUNDAMENTAL and POSITION trades. I am still shying away from intraday trades via FLASH and RADAR trade set ups and this is indicative of how the market is playing in my opinion. I can only trade what meets my criteria and small day trades are not it, at the moment.\r\n\r\nIt was commodity cross rates that yielded most pips last month.\r\n\r\nI posted to twitter last Friday the NZD/CAD bear flag trade, which completed as posted originally in trade FUN655 on August 1st. I took 280 pips profit from the 5 separate trades (FUN655, FUN669, FUN670, FUN684 and FUN694) on the measured move which from day one when the initial set up was posted was projected at 488 pips. About 60% of the move was achieved, but my point is the conditions were that I felt I had to cover and re-enter again. I could not just leave the trade running. It is these conditions that have increased administration time and overall research and desk time this year. This trade is typical.\r\n\r\nThe RISK MANAGEMENT approach that I am using this year to protect $$$ results in more trade activity, which means more ins and outs as the trade move progresses.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nIn August, the positive / negative trade ratio was 87% / 13% - happy bloody days!\r\n\r\nYear to date the PREMIUM SERVICE is now bang on target at 75% / 25%\r\n\r\nWith regards to the straight pip by pip analysis comparison.\r\n\r\nEnd of August 2016 = 9,200 pips\r\nThis year = 6,331 pips\r\nBehind by 2,869 pips\r\n\r\nRemember though 2016 was a 13,575-pip year well over the 10,000 pips objective.\r\n\r\nI am on target to achieve 10,000 pips by the end of 2017…. God willing!!\r\n\r\nMoving forward…\r\n\r\nI am looking at commodity cross rate pairs to generate a significant number of pips into the year end.\r\n\r\nDespite the ECB comments I do still see the EUR appreciating in value above 1.2000 towards 1.2250. I remain stubborn but with huge belief in the basic fact that the cable is going lower and by default the EUR/GBP moving higher into the year end.\r\n\r\nI was basically flat going into NFP and have added just a couple of set ups since NFP. Over the coming days I will be placing more set ups adding to CORE POSITIONS, primarily the NZD related pairs and will also be looking for GBP and CAD entries.\r\n\r\nWith regards the JPY. I have this issue. S&amp;P is at highs. Why in all  sanity isn’t the USD/JPY at 120.00, even 150.00? There lies the question and there lies my avoidance.\r\n\r\nThe CHF I am now ignoring unless we see a drop to the region of 0.9000 on the back of a North Korean situation. I believe that this will be the safe haven driver across the board.\r\n\r\nFinally, EUR/USD. Yes, I am going to look for a long entry. As previously discussed I want to get long off the trend line support at 1.1680. Failing this the 1.1711 pivot. I had hoped for blowout NFP numbers to give me a shot at these levels. We know what happened there!!\r\n\r\nSorry, I updated the RISK MANAGEMENT / POSITION SIZING excel spreadsheet to take effect 1st September. Mostly just adding in some pairs that were omitted from the original version.\r\n\r\nI have placed an updated copy on the NEWSBOARD inside the subscriber area of the website.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n\r\n4.5.2: MARKET SENTIMENT:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/SENTIMENT-03092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9946\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/SENTIMENT-03092017-690x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"690\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.6.3: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-03092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9945\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-03092017-1024x844.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"844\" /></a>\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>EUR/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/EURUSD-D-03092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9950\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/EURUSD-D-03092017-1024x545.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"545\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/GBPUSD-D-03092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9951\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/GBPUSD-D-03092017-1024x545.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"545\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/AUDUSD-D-03092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9949\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/AUDUSD-D-03092017-1024x545.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"545\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/NZDUSD-D-03092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9952\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/NZDUSD-D-03092017-1024x545.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"545\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCAD-D-03092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9953\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCAD-D-03092017-1024x545.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"545\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCHF-D-03092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9954\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCHF-D-03092017-1024x545.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"545\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\n<u><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDJPY-D-03092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9955\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDJPY-D-03092017-1024x545.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"545\" /></a>\r\n\r\n4.5.4: CORE TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\nJust a brief note this week as I was virtually flat going into NFP last Friday. Usually there are a total of approximately 20 trades either LIVE or LIMIT ORDERS to review. This week I only have 4 live trades going into the weekend.\r\n\r\nAUD/NZD: (Live)\r\n\r\nAs the long time subscribers will know. I have been basically long this pair for most of the past two years. It is now in breakout mode.\r\n\r\nI currently reduced size to one position pre NFP and have a limit order in place. My gut feeling is that I will be adding a BUY STOP order as well as another LIMIT ORDER based off a smaller pullback to add to the current position.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD: (Live)\r\n\r\nOnly one trade in play at the moment but the Head and Shoulders measured move means more will be added moving forward. Like a bloody numpty, I missed the shorting opportunity at 0.7200 post NFP…. argh!!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nEUR/NZD: (Live)\r\n\r\nI will be adding primarily BUY STOP orders to the pair. I am still in the camp that the ECB will fail in talking back the single currency and that EUR crosses will benefit.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nIn the melting pot for moving forward…\r\n\r\nEUR/USD and EUR Cross Rates:\r\n\r\nGBP/USD and GBP Cross Rates:\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n\r\n4.5.5: PREMIUM SERVICE – CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE - LIVE TRADES:\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/LIVE-TRADES-03092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9948\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/LIVE-TRADES-03092017-914x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"914\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n\r\nCURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE – LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/LIMIT-ORDERS-03092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9947\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/LIMIT-ORDERS-03092017-867x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"867\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE SOAPBOX:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>\r\nDRAGHI GETTING PREPARED FOR THE DOTHRAKI </strong>\r\n\r\nThe one part of writing this blog that I really look forward to is this section Within “THE SOAPBOX” I can basically write about anything that is on my mind that I consider could be of interest directly or indirectly to trading currencies.\r\n\r\nHaving had a few weeks off in the summer, I am back and raring to go. If only the same could be said of “God love him”, Mario Draghi as he prepares this week for the ECB Interest Rate announcement and Press Conference that follows.\r\n\r\nHe is on a hiding to nothing. The ECB are scared shitless about the single currency appreciating too much, too far and too fast as it will screw up all the work undertaken so far to try and get in general terms, very, very general terms the EUROZONE economy back on track.\r\n\r\nSo far up their own arse’s the ECB have now taken to delivering pre-news updates about upcoming news events such as the ECB Press Conference this Thursday. This is an attempt to lower market expectations from what Mario Draghi will talk about and what the prepared statement will say. This desire to dampen expectations is understandable but the inevitable is going to happen.\r\n\r\nIf it looks like a pig, it\'s a fecking pig even if you dress it up in a skirt put a syrup on its head and paint lipstick on it. It’s still a pig. Draghi has his own squealer to deal with.\r\n\r\nBeing the ECB he is of course not helped by Ewald Nowotny (Austrian Central Bank, Governor), who only fans flames in these situations. He has already been on the wires stating Draghi needs effective communication and dialogue to plan the ECB tapering plans and how the ECB will return to a normalized interest rate policy. Easier to sell an ice-cream to Eskimo in my opinion.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nSo, let me keep this as punchy as I can from my own view and perspective. Draghi is f**ked. No matter what he says or does he is screwed. It is like standing in front of the Dothraki horsemen armed with a butter knife.\r\n\r\nThe good news and the bad news as I see it: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>EUROZONE growth is up in 2017 and will likely be revised upwards.</li>\r\n 	<li>The strong EUR could influence core inflation lower into 2018.</li>\r\n 	<li>Business confidence is optimistic, in Germany at least.</li>\r\n 	<li>Elections this month in Germany and early next year in Italy.</li>\r\n 	<li>Populist fears for France and Holland never materialized.</li>\r\n 	<li>Inflation is still lagging.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nWhat options does Mario Draghi have?\r\n\r\nAround the time of the NFP release last Friday the ECB announced that any decision on tapering would be delayed until December. Now I am a cynical fecker at the best of times but December coincides with the time that if the FED was going to act on increasing US interest rates it would be then. This delay to the same time of the year if the FED does act, will negate some of the possible, or in my view probable EUR strength.\r\n\r\nSo, basically the ECB has bought three months during which time they hope to keep the EUR appreciation suppressed.\r\n\r\nThis is known as “KICKING THE CAN DOWN THE ROAD”\r\n\r\nThe ECB and EUROZONE are masters at this. If it were an Olympic event the EUROZONE would win gold with the ECB in the silver medal position.\r\n\r\nThe bottom end is that the ECB will have to address the issue of monetary normalization at some point in time. They cannot just exit. It will take time to do so with a timetable of events. The markets feed on the greed of that instant move and then it will settle down but the simple fact is that unless the FED are normalizing at a faster rate than the ECB the EUR/USD is going to 1.2500-1.3000 again.\r\n\r\nI think that the ECB might use inflation as the reason and perhaps extend the QE period for another 6 months but taper down €20-30bn per month. With regards to negative overnight rates, these will probably remain in place but could be tapered in the first half year of 2018.\r\n\r\nDraghi is consistent. He has always pointed out the requirement for continued monetary policy accommodation. It is the markets frothing like rabid dogs wanting movement on policy knowing that economic data is improving that has created all the euphoria. A sniff of improving conditions has the markets thirsty for blood.\r\n\r\nI know I give a brief macro level opinion, but if you want more detail there are plenty of places on the web to find the detail.\r\n\r\nOverwhelmingly, I believe the markets may buy a delay for a day but as soon as the next set of positive data hits the wires, all bets are off again. The markets have the memory and attention span of gnat.\r\n\r\nFrom a trading perspective where am I?\r\n\r\nThe Forex market is a future pricing mechanism…. I read that in a book. The markets smell fear in the ECB and they are ready rip the single currency.\r\n\r\nYes, I want to long EUR/USD over the medium term and the fact that the ECB announced a December timeline last week has given me more time to pick my EUR./USD long entry. I like the 1.1680 entry just below 1.1711 pivot off trend line support. Will we go to that low? At the moment, there is nothing in my brain telling me that we will see a pullback to that level at the moment, so I may have to re-evaluate my thought process once again this week after the ECB Press Conference on Thursday.\r\n\r\nWith regards to the EUR crosses they are fair game at the moment which I will be looking to add to this week.\r\n\r\nTherefore, this week I see Draghi saying all is on hold until the December. I see him shunning all questions on normalization and tapering, stating wait and see as it all being evaluated.\r\n\r\nIf he veers away from the text the EUR will rocket thru 1.2000 like a hot knife thru butter. Draghi cannot show fear, uncertainty or anxiety because, should he demonstrate any of those mannerisms he will get his feet cut from beneath him and he will have crawl out on his knees to leave the Press Conference.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #249 FREE NEWSLETTER\r\nSeptember 3rd, 2017\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','DRAGHI GETTING PREPARED FOR THE DOTHRAKI','','publish','open','closed','','draghi-getting-prepared-dothraki','','','2017-09-02 10:13:11','2017-09-02 15:13:11','',0,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?p=9963',0,'post','',0),(9988,1,'2017-09-09 06:55:31','2017-09-09 11:55:31','&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nA nice start back to full-time trading.\r\n\r\nA great first week back with +325 pips being banked. What is annoying is that I let over 150 pips or so fall through my fingers…argh!!\r\n\r\nLike every trader, you try your best to leave the woulda, coulda and shoulda’s behind. Hindsight is just a wonderful thing. Nevertheless, I think it was Bernard Baruch who said, “Nobody ever lost money taking a profit”; so with those words fresh in my mind, I will shut up.\r\n\r\nThe pips are starting to accumulate as I head towards my annual net 10,000 pips target. My house move, a month’s vacation to Australia and New Zealand plus my summer break are all in the rear-view mirror now. If you are considering joining the PREMIUM SERVICE no better time than the present.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>I am on my charge to reaching 10,000 pips before the year end. There are risks attached but I beat my 10,000 pips target in 2014, 2015 and 2016, no reason why I can’t do it again to make 4 years in a row (Check it all out on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the tab HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE).</li>\r\n 	<li>I have a great new subscriber promotion to the PREMIUM SERVICE offer available (Full details in Section 4 of this blog and on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the FX PROMOTIONS tab).</li>\r\n 	<li>My buddies at VANTAGE FX are ready for you if you don\'t have a great broker or you want to add a separate broker for PREMIUM SERVICE trades (Just click the link to VANTAGE FX on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> ).</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nGeopolitical themes still rule like an iron fist hovering over the markets. Kim Jong-Un has still not bent the knee, although “THE DONALD” has wound back his rhetoric thank God. Speaking last week after visiting the devastation caused by “HARVEY” he appears to have pushed China to act to give North Korea a good slapping.\r\n\r\nTwo visits into Texas, however, I am not sure we will see “THE DONALD” down in Florida for a while at least until after the winds of hurricane “IRMA” have died down and moved off to sea. Could you imagine the cost of the US Navy trying to locate his syrup somewhere in the Atlantic?\r\n\r\nJoking aside and not ignoring the tragic human costs of these storms, the financial cost coupled with basic turmoil within the TRUMP administration, the lack of relationship between the White House and Republicans and now deals being done between the White House and the Democrats feed a giant WTF in <strong>BOLD</strong> font size 144.\r\n\r\nDo we have a “FREELANCE” presidency in the U.S.?\r\n\r\nThink about it.\r\n\r\nThe Republicans in Washington have been in opposition for 8 years. They control both houses of legislature, yet they so in dispute with each other they cannot organize themselves to pass a single election promised piece of law. Republicans appear to be nothing more than self-serving career politicians that cannot unite on a single policy and they have control of both houses… they could really motor on.\r\n\r\nThe Democrats are not much better. Still whining on about losing the election to TRUMP. They have adopted a policy of non- agreement, zero partisanship. They have not sought out a leader to challenge at the next election. All they do is moan TRUMP this and TRUMP that. When the next election comes around they will have no one effective to stand because of their blinkered approach on disruption rather than being solution focused. I see this all-over Facebook and Twitter. Nothing has been learned since the Hillary Clinton elitist approach near the end of the 2016 campaign was poo-pooed by the unsullied.\r\n\r\nSo, TRUMP’S move to by-pass the Republican shambles and do a deal with the Democrats over linking the debt ceiling to the Hurricane costs was either a brilliant strategic manoeuvre and a clear demonstration of his will to get things done and by-pass the party machines, or, it was a nail in the coffin for all his election promises ever being fulfilled.\r\n\r\nWhat it has done in my opinion is solidify his base support. It shows a clear desire to get stuff done.\r\n\r\nWill this be the first of many such moves?\r\n\r\nThe American system encourages dysfunctionality and that it basically what we have seen since 9-11 in American politics. Watch this space.\r\n\r\nInteresting news…\r\n\r\nJanet Yellen’s deputy at the FED, Stanley Fischer is stepping down next month for personal reasons. If Yellen decides enough is enough and does not carry on next January, we could have a new look FED in place…. a TRUMP FED.\r\n\r\nMy thoughts are mixed for the markets, could this mean any year end hike is off based upon the fact the “old guard” would step aside and let the “New kids on the block” decide upon future policy? This point will no doubt be debated heavily in the coming weeks.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> LAST WEEK – MY TAKE ON SOME KEY EVENTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIn no particular order, here is what floated my boat last week.\r\n\r\n<u>EUR: ECB PRESS CONFERENCE. </u>\r\n\r\nMario Draghi, God love the poor fecker… He tried his best with a straight face to try and convince the markets that he could sell them a DOVISH MONETARY POLICY STANCE, whilst at the same time PURSUE A TIGHTER MONETARY POLICY… yup, good luck with that. The ECB Press Conference was billed as being a circus act and Barnum’s and Billy Smart’s would have been delighted as it ticked all the boxes.\r\n\r\nSo, what were the takeaways from Draghi?\r\n\r\nQE to run at €60B per month until December meeting or beyond if required.\r\nEconomic outlook broadly unchanged.\r\nExpansion solid. Broad-based.\r\nFX volatility is a source of uncertainty and requires monitoring.\r\nExpansion not yet translated in Inflation trend.\r\nInflation modest tick-up but still subdued.\r\nSubstantial accommodation still needed.\r\nReady to increase QE if outlook not favourable.\r\n2017 GDP now at 2.2% versus 1.9% seen in June.\r\n2018 GDP unchanged at 1.8%.\r\nHeadline inflation to dip into the year end 2017.\r\nUnderlying inflation to rise gradually over the medium-term.\r\nRecovery is base for confidence that inflation will gradually rise.\r\nRecovery remains dependent on Monetary policy.\r\nConsumption good because disposable income is rising.\r\nExchange Rate not a policy target\r\nWill have to take FX into account in future policy decisions.\r\n\r\nYada, yada, yada, blah, blah and bollocks ….. believe what you want from the above list of bullets I scribed from his speech and Q&amp;A session.\r\n\r\nMost of the above points are open to interpretation to be frank with you, and, it very much depends upon which side of the fence one sits.\r\n\r\nDraghi had a job to do, which was basically put off the markets until October when more data is available and the normalization including Tapering timetable will be discussed.  The ECB has an annoying and frustrating habit of “can kicking issues down the road”. Do NOT be surprised if in October we get 50% of the story and a delay to December.\r\n\r\nIn addition, and in true ECB style, on Friday last week the day after the “circus”, lesser known Governing Council member Philip Lane, Governor of the Irish Central Bank stated the following: - “The accommodative stance will remain until convincing evidence of inflation is seen”. This could be 2018 in full as the strengthening single currency is taking inflation out of the system. Draghi and governing council want the single currency on its arse. Let me re-iterate here lies the problem facing the ECB.\r\n\r\nMeanwhile back in the real world…\r\n\r\nI need to pick a level to enter long the EUR/USD in the coming days. Draghi said / did nothing to stop me thinking 1.3000 is on the way. My big question is how will he tackle zero inflation because the strengthening single currency will cancel out inflation inside the EUROZONE, well a great deal of it anyway.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>CAD: BOC RATE ANNOUNCEMENT and EMPLOYMENT DATA.\r\n</u>\r\nHoly Mother of God; I never thought that BOC Governor, Stephen Poloz had it in him. Two interest rate hikes back to back. The CAD interest rate now stands at 1.00%.\r\n\r\nThat took the market completely by surprise. The market is obsessed and focused on rate movement’s when there is a press conference.  The CAD was absolutely demolished by over 220 pips (USD/CAD), it bounced back across all pairs but frankly it looks doomed to a sub 1.2000 level soon.\r\n\r\nOut of the last rate increase the BOC got some $0.11 cents move lower in USD/CAD, even if they only achieve a $0.05 move this time the pair would fall to 1.1900. My goal and target is much less than this level.\r\n\r\nJust stepping sideways for a moment vis-à-vis the Canadian Jobs data. It was an overall beat, but the mix between Full and Part-time jobs was very disappointing and the USD/CAD initially weakened on the news. Basically, it remained unchanged. The 1.2000 level remains intact for now. It is however WHEN rather than IF, in my opinion, that this psychological round number will be crushed.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>GBP: BREXIT and MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION DATA.</u>\r\n\r\nBREXIT negotiations appear to be STILL moving along the lines of a west-end farce.\r\n\r\nI am NOT surprised, and neither should you be, we are watching career politicians at work. They only know how to attribute blame; they are simply NOT negotiators or problem solvers. This hangs over the UK like the “Sword of Damocles”.\r\n\r\nThe shambles continues; last week, Theresa May must have had a late-night party with her hangers on, and some numpty must have suggested writing to the FTSE Top 100 companies to ask them to get on board with Tory plans on BREXIT…. WTF. That goes down in the history books as another seemed like a good idea at the time moments. For God’s sake give me a break, even my Labrador Ozzy has more brains than that. Makes you think… doesn\'t it?\r\n\r\nThis letter comes on the back of a piece I read on BLOOMBERG about the UK negotiators perhaps looking for time to conclude the negotiations. What can I say here that even I could be happy with from a controlled language expletive perspective?\r\n\r\nWhat a f**king load of f**king bollocks, these tossers are paid a s**t load of people’s hard earned cash to do a f**king job. They have known the f**king timetable for f**king months. It’s about time they took their heads out of their arses, grew a pair, man up and get the job done to the best of their ability and let the population decide if they are a load of ineffective wan**rs or not when the f**king negotiations are finished.  The people voted over a year ago and f**k all has been done.\r\n\r\nOne Prozac later…\r\n\r\nThis past week or so UK economic data has been very mixed. Markets being markets, experts being experts and analyst’s being analyst’, they are all looking to be “Billy’s” and pick the bottom. If you pick bottoms all you get are smelly fingers. Manufacturing Production numbers came out last Friday morning, it was a beat at 0.5% versus market expectations of 0.3%. The Cable leaped up like a salmon on the good news and this move was exacerbated by continued USD weakness.\r\n\r\nHowever, as I wrote last week despite the bounce in the GBP/USD, which in my opinion is more about USD weakness than cable strength, I remain bearish cable longer-term and I stand by everything I have written in earlier blogs about timings and FX targets. I am still to this day astonished by the continual reference to “HARD or SOFT BREXIT”. For crying out loud; there is NO SOFT BREXIT. The EUROZONE cannot afford a SOFT BREXIT because it could potentially create a CONTAGION.\r\n\r\nI am STILL in the camp that there is a better than 50% probability that NO BREXIT deal will be achieved.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>3.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/ECON-DATA-10092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9970\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/ECON-DATA-10092017-1024x769.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"769\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3.2: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-10092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9971\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-10092017-1024x852.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"852\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3.3: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:\r\n\r\n</u>Economic data releases this week are a bit thin on the ground but nevertheless I am sure that there will be plenty of fun for those who want to get involved.\r\n\r\nHere are my picks of the upcoming week.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>AUD:</u></strong>  Jobs data this week for the Australian Economy.  This has been a hit and miss number of late. Either a blowout or a bit weird number is produced. I am therefore on the fence here. We have seen big numbers posted for new jobs only to find that the mix of full and part time positions was skewed in favour of part-time.\r\n\r\nLast week on poor data the AUD/USD broke 0.8000 and then 0.8100. So why am I debating the response to good or bad data?\r\n\r\nBasically, the AUD looks a strong currency at the moment and a bigger upside break looks more on the cards than a move lower. This looks on the cards despite the RBA remaining neutral. I must only imagine RBA Governor Lowe is grateful he remained neutral, if he was HAWKISH I think we would be looking closer to 0.8500 at the moment given the way that the DXY has been behaving.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP:</u></strong>  CPi, Retail Sales, Average Earnings Index and the MPC vote with the interest rate announcement. I am in the minority, I know this, but I am still looking at the cable at 1.2000 at the end of 2017. It has spiked higher recently, however, I believe this is more of a move based from the weak USD (DXY) rather than UK economic supporting data.\r\n\r\nBREXIT is a shambolic affair. Theresa May is apparently delivering a major speech on September 21st to parliament on her timetable, negotiating timetable, successes and failures etc. This should be funnier than an episode of Frasier or The Big Bang Theory. The BREXIT successes should have me rolling about on the floor. That will be a short section of the speech if you are in anyway distracted for a second or two you may miss that bit.\r\n\r\nBack to the data dump…\r\n\r\nCPI and Retail Sales will be misses unless tourism boosts these numbers. Disposable incomes have been sharply eaten into with inflation.\r\n\r\nWages have shown signs of life of late but are still not keeping pace with inflation and I expect this to remain the case this Wednesday when the latest numbers are released. This is placing pressure on household disposable income.\r\n\r\nI have heard many rather glib comments from mainly non-UK bodies saying that with UK inflation above the 2% target a 0.25% rate hike won’t make too much of a difference. I hear and I read the comments and my immediate well thought out response is bollocks.\r\n\r\nRate hikes would be passed on at almost double the 0.25% hike onto credit cards, credit lines and overdrafts without any thought by the high-street banks. Much of the already disappearing household disposable income caused by inflation that remains will just be annihilated by an interest rate increase. In my opinion, this would be one of the biggest f**k ups ever by a Central Bank. I just don\'t see it.\r\n\r\nSo, I see Mark Carney, BOE Governor fumbling his way through a no change statement remaining vigilant and accommodative well into 2018.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD:</u></strong> We enter another week in the life of a TRUMP administration. Dysfunctional Washington persists and frankly looking at the US data I am becoming less and less interested as reactions are short lived as the USD is more responsive to twitter and headline news than economic data.\r\n\r\nWe have key inflation data this week. PPi, CPi and view of the consumer via Retail Sales. I would normally say these are crucial numbers for the FED to dissect vis-à-vis Monetary Policy normalization.\r\n\r\nMy thoughts, being a cynical fecker is that the ECB and FED have done a deal to both move in December. The FED will raise again regardless and this will help the ECB from rip roaring to 1.3000 in a few weeks.\r\n\r\nWe have been given a curveball by the FED telling us that they are looking more at its Balance Sheet reduction as a priority over interest rate normalization.\r\n\r\nBack to the data…\r\n\r\nAs long as, PPi and CPi are positive, I believe the markets will be happy enough. Retail Sales will have to match the last print at 0.6% as a minimum in my opinion. Anything less than these bare minimums will send the DXY crashing.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong><strong> </strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>4.1: PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber based Forex support service offering my suggested trade set-ups and market commentary.\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nMONTH TO DATE:  +325 net pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE:      +6,656 net pips\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs on my website  <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n\r\n<u>4.2: NEW SUBSCRIPTION OPTIONS:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/SUBSCRIPTION-CHANGES-FALL2017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9907\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/SUBSCRIPTION-CHANGES-FALL2017-799x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"799\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n</u>\r\n<u>4.3: CURRENT SUBSCRIPTION PROMOTION:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/FALL2017-PROMOTION.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9908\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/FALL2017-PROMOTION-788x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"788\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u> </u><u>\r\n4.4: WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you would like to be in the monthly draw to win a “FREE 30 DAY SUBSCRIPTION” to the PREMIUM SERVICE, valued at CAD$150.00, all you should do is subscribe to receive this FREE NEWSLETTER on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nThis can be done as follows: -\r\n\r\nOn my welcome page just below my cube logo is where you complete your subscription.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>4.5: PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:</u><u>\r\n</u>(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>4.5.1: TRADING REVIEW, INSIGHTS and SUMMARY:</u>\r\n\r\nWe are now into the closing straight of 2017.\r\n\r\nSeptember has started with a few nice trades generating some nice pips and $$$, although I have left quite a few pips on the table through poor stop management or closing trades too soon. It is very frustrating, but one cannot look backwards, one must look forward towards goals and objectives.\r\n\r\nI am now in the throws of establishing two core positions with the CAD and NZD. The latter took a bit of a slapping last week as USD weakness really got stuck in. In fact, looking back through trades the NZD/USD has been a loss-making trading pair these past couple of weeks with over 200 pips lost on various trades. I still believe it is a short trade on the back of RBNZ comments. We have parliamentary elections on September 23rd and up to this date the NZD currency could be twitchy.\r\n\r\nWe should also bear in mind, our pal and a really decent chap Graeme Wheeler’s tenure as RBNZ Governor ends on September 27th. He is replaced temporarily by Grant Spencer, who is currently the Deputy Governor and Head of Financial Stability. As long as our Grant is not tea-total, the chaps at the Press Conference will love his bones!\r\n\r\nI notice that Barclays Bank has a sell order up to the election on AUD/NZD. Currently, I have 3 x Live trades and one limit order in place. This should be interesting. I see the AUD going to 0.8500 cents in the coming weeks before being pulled back from anything loftier by the RBA so I feel good being long AUD/NZD for the moment.\r\n\r\nThe cable, I am looking for 1.3300 to look at getting short. That\'s it in a nutshell. Until we get there I am not looking at GBP/USD shorts…famous last words. I believe an entry at that level represents around the best value one could get in my opinion.\r\n\r\nThe EUR/USD is a “BUY THE DIP” trade, I am just biding my time for now.<u>\r\n\r\n4.5.2: MARKET SENTIMENT:\r\n\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/SENTIMENT-03092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9946\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/SENTIMENT-03092017-690x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"690\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>4.5.3: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS with TRADING CHARTS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-10092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9971\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-10092017-1024x852.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"852\" /></a>\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>EUR/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/EURUSD-D-10092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9981\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/EURUSD-D-10092017-1024x527.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"527\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/GBPUSD-D-10092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9982\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/GBPUSD-D-10092017-1024x527.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"527\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/AUDUSD-D-10092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9980\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/AUDUSD-D-10092017-1024x527.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"527\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/NZDUSD-D-10092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9983\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/NZDUSD-D-10092017-1024x527.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"527\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCAD-D-10092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9984\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCAD-D-10092017-1024x527.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"527\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCHF-D-10092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9985\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCHF-D-10092017-1024x527.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"527\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\n<u><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDJPY-D-10092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9986\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDJPY-D-10092017-1024x527.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"527\" /></a>\r\n\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.5.4: CORE TRADES, ASSOCIATED NEWS and INSIGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nBasically, I am bearish the CAD and NZD and the two currencies are dominating my thoughts, trades and limit orders at the moment.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE CAD:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nCurrently, I am live the following: -\r\n\r\nCAD/JPY – long\r\n\r\nGBP/CAD and NZD/USD – short\r\n\r\nPlus: - I have SELL STOP limit orders and standard limit orders in position for the USD/CAD and EUR/CAD.\r\n\r\nI have documented this repeatedly. I see the USD/CAD going to 1.1700. This move should it play out should drag all the CAD related pairs with it.\r\n\r\nLast Friday, ScotiaBank released its latest batch of currency targets and thoughts vis-à-vis the markets. It has another rate hike in the mix for Q4 2017 and two more in 2018. If they were all 0.25% rate increases, that would make a grand total rate of 1.75% by the end of 2018.\r\n\r\nThat’s what you call a brave shout.\r\n\r\nIt is also a brave shout without any responsibility for being incorrect or way off the mark.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: Is to add more USD/CAD trades this week and have a CORE SHORT POSITION established that I can add to and take pips and $$$ from trades as the CAD strengthens.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE NZD</u></strong>:\r\n\r\nCurrently I have 3 x live long AUD/NZD trades and a NZD/CAD short trade.\r\n\r\nPlus: - A further long AUD/NZD limit order trade, a NZD/JPY limit order and 2 x EUR/NZD long limit order trades waiting in the wings.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: Is to wait until the timing is good to re-enter NZD/USD short once again and establish a CORE SHORT POSITION.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE EUR</u></strong>:\r\n\r\nNothing is LIVE yet all limit orders but my goal is to start placing strategic entries across several EUR currency related pairs.\r\n\r\nCurrently, I have EUR/USD and EUR/AUD limit orders in position.\r\n<u>4.5.5: PREMIUM SERVICE – CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE - LIVE TRADES:\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/LIVE-TRADES-10092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9973\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/LIVE-TRADES-10092017-869x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"869\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\nCURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE – LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/LIMIT-ORDERS-10092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9972\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/LIMIT-ORDERS-10092017-837x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"837\" height=\"1024\" /></a> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE SOAPBOX:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>\r\nTIPPING POINTS, STRUCTURAL RE-ALIGNMENTS, </strong><strong>MARKET STABILITY and DXY to 87.50?</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nThat\'s quite a lot to take in…\r\n\r\nIt seems like a life time ago, but it was in fact only July when I wrote back to back blogs about the TIPPING POINT and a market STRUCTURAL RE-ALIGNMENT.\r\n\r\nAs a macro, FUNDAMENTAL thinker / trader first I am usually either ahead of the market by varying degrees or sometimes just never there at all as my thought process may never play out the way that I had originally thought for one reason or a combination of reasons.\r\n\r\nRecently, trading or attempting to trade the USD to the long side has been like trying to roll a snowball up hill. Yes, there have been opportunities but they are few and far between. Just looking at the USD Index (DXY) chart below shows that basically since “THE DONALD’S” inauguration the DXY has been on a slide lower.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/DXY-10092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9979\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/DXY-10092017-1024x504.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"504\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe simple fact is that the USD could slip below the current 91.00 level of support, break through the 90.00 psychological number and then maybe take a run at 87.50.\r\n\r\nThis potential move lower sits well with the administrations ideology of a weak USD and a low interest rate policy.\r\n\r\nThe potential moves ahead with the single currency should also fuel this decline in the USD as when the ECB announces its path to interest rate normalization the EUR should strengthen creating further USD weakness.\r\n\r\nThe backdrop to all this conjecture is that Central Banks around the globe all have maintaining MARKET STABILITY as a written or in some cases an unwritten rule.\r\n\r\nThere are so many factors influencing movements in price at the moment MARKET STABILITY appears to be somewhat lost, although to his credit Mario Draghi referenced it on a few occasions last Thursday in his ECB Press Conference. The truth is the markets could not give a rat’s hairy ass about STABILITY when FEAR and GREED are dominating the process, which they are for now.\r\n\r\nThe U.S. has two impending massive natural disasters on its plate, and the threat of war from North Korea. A President who is not trusted by his alleged party of allegiance and also but not surprisingly by the opposition party that are only interested in disruption rather than making the U.S. a better place to live and work, is a recipe for continued uncertainly and total instability. The U.S. is so dysfunctional and so far up its own arse it cannot see what it is doing to itself and it is fast becoming a laughing stock for onlookers around the globe.\r\n\r\nYet, with all this going on, the U.S. stock market is close to its highs. Quite staggering and incomprehensible to myself and possibly a few others.\r\n\r\nSo where am I going?\r\n\r\nLet me get there piece by piece….\r\n\r\nI have often said to new traders something along the lines of the following: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Trading currencies is essentially routine.</li>\r\n 	<li>Routine can be boring.</li>\r\n 	<li>There are classic market alignments and correlations.</li>\r\n 	<li>First thing in the morning when I go to my screens, I check the following charts, these are my LEAD INDICATORS: - DXY, GOLD, OIL, COPPER, S&amp;P, US10YEARNOTE, USD/CAD, USD/SEK, AUD/JPY and USD/JPY. This looks labour intensive and it can be but from my perspective essential background. It does not even allow for the reading material that I go through with coffee each morning.</li>\r\n 	<li>If my alignments and correlations whether they be inter-market or inter-currency are off, I have a RED FLAG.</li>\r\n 	<li>Having completed what I call my market research I look through trading charts, at the same time as checking open trades and limit orders to verify are they still tradeable entries or not?</li>\r\n 	<li>I watch/listen to BLOOMBERG in the background on my iPAD PRO, to listen out for geopolitical news and events that could influence my trading.</li>\r\n 	<li>All this take’s about an hour, but I have found over the past 10 years of trading it works for me. I trade for the long haul. There is a market 5 days a week. I can miss a day if I do NOT like the way the market looks or performs. Why put yourself at RISK? Is not one of a trader’s key goals and objective to MANAGE RISK?</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThis routine is all well and good karma. However, of late it in my opinion the market has become news driven rather than economically driven. This creates a dysfunctional market where correlations do matter but tend to be skewed… RED FLAG.\r\n\r\nCurrency relationships look awkward and no longer aligned to RISK … RED FLAG.\r\n\r\nAll the research in the world means feck all.\r\n\r\nWe are very quickly approaching the TIPPING POINT I referred to back in July. We are about to see the USD drop like a lead balloon and the EUR rip higher. Just the moves lower in the USD and higher in the EUR would cause a TIPPING POINT and a STRUCTURAL RE-ALIGNMENT in the FX market.\r\n\r\nNever mind what influences the Central Banks have, or believe that they have. Most of the Central Banks around the globe related to G7 countries have credibility issues with the markets. The BOE, BOJ, ECB and even the FED to some extent are classics in recent history. When the news is DOVISH / ACCOMODATIVE it’s easy to communicate. However, when turning HAWKISH as those listed have found to their detriment it is much more difficult to effectively communicate and maintain MARKET STABILITY.\r\n\r\nOnly the BOC under Stephen Poloz has delivered his promise quickly and smoothly. The BOC received so much bang for their buck out of two 0.25% rate increases. I realise it’s much easier for a small economy like Canada but it is still a G7 and G10 country.\r\n\r\nI would add the SNB under Thomas Jordan has also been relatively consistent and Philip Lowe having replaced Glenn Stevens at the RBA appears to be very clear and unambiguous with his commentary.\r\n\r\nBack on track…\r\n\r\nMoving to interest rate normalization around the globe will happen and the fact that U.S. is struggling for a multitude of reasons already mentioned means that at the end of this year we could have both the FED and ECB with major announcements at the same time…fluke or by design?\r\n\r\nI believe that the FED has a deal done with the ECB to raise rates in December when the ECB will announce more details about policy normalization. I think October for ECB is a “can kicking” exercise and that December will be the real deal.\r\n\r\nDecember looks primed to start the FX RE-ALIGNMENT but it will not be as volatile if both Central Banks (FED &amp; ECB) go together. December is a great month for releasing data for obvious reasons, holidays, end of year etc. and both Central Banks have back to back meetings.\r\n\r\n13th December – FOMC (FED)\r\n\r\n14th December – ECB – Press Conference in Frankfurt.\r\n\r\nThe G10 Central Bank leaders do talk to each other. I for one would NOT be surprised if a handshake over a glass of red has taken place over timings.\r\n\r\nGiven the desire and concerns over MARKET STABILITY do NOT rule out a coordinated policy announcement ahead of the dates of these meetings to announce change at the same time. It has been done before.\r\n\r\nIt could happen but maybe not.\r\n\r\nAt the end of the day what would the FX world look like?\r\n\r\nI still believe that no matter what is attempted, the USD is on very rocky ground. Fundamentally I cannot see Washington kissing and making up party to party or President to either party so dysfunctionality will remain in place.\r\n\r\nFair value for the single currency even with another 0.25% on the U.S. rate must still be in the 1.3000 range, but it is not about where fair value lies it’s how it gravitates to the level that is the important consideration.\r\n\r\nAt EUR/USD at 1.3000.\r\n\r\nEUR crosses would all be elevated from current levels and the majors would be elevated and re-aligned as well as a consequence.\r\n\r\nThat is when the real fun starts.\r\n\r\nHow will the RBA and RBNZ feel when their currencies are at 0.9000 and maybe 0.8000 levels once again? Competitiveness would suffer unless it was a balanced increase across the board.\r\n\r\nIt is possible that we enter currency wars 2.0?\r\n\r\nTIPPING POINTS, RE-ALIGNMENTS both have consequences and MARKET STABILITY may suffer despite a great deal of effort and planning being introduced, the DXY at 87.50. I do not like using the phrase nailed on, but I just cant see it not happening in the coming weeks.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS:</strong><strong> </strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #146 PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBER VERSION\r\nSeptember 10th, 2017\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','TIPPING POINTS, STRUCTURAL RE-ALIGNMENTS, MARKET STABILITY and DXY at 87.50?','','inherit','closed','closed','','9987-revision-v1','','','2017-09-09 06:55:31','2017-09-09 11:55:31','',9987,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/9987-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(10952,1,'2018-02-09 16:16:31','2018-02-09 21:16:31','<h4>Fundamental Trades Archives:</h4>\r\n<section class=\"clearfix\">\r\n<div class=\"one-half first\">\r\n<h2>This Month\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/FUN-09022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10938\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/FUN-09022018-788x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"788\" height=\"1024\" /></a></h2>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"one-half\">\r\n<h2>Year to date<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/FUN-JANYTD2018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10901\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/FUN-JANYTD2018-751x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"751\" height=\"1024\" /></a></h2>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/FUNDAMENTAL-YTD-JULY31.png\">\r\n</a>\r\n<h2>PREVIOUS YEARS</h2>\r\n<h2><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/FUNDAMENTAL-2017-COMPLETE.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-10713\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/FUNDAMENTAL-2017-COMPLETE.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"866\" height=\"952\" /></a></h2>\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-8811\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/FUN-2016-COMPLETE.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"874\" height=\"942\" />\r\n<h2><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/FUN-2015-COMP-copy.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-10671\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/FUN-2015-COMP-copy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"430\" height=\"442\" /></a></h2>\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/FUNDAMENTAL-YEAR-TO-DATE-2014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-8860\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/FUNDAMENTAL-YEAR-TO-DATE-2014.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"710\" height=\"754\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</section>','FUNDAMENTAL TRADES','','inherit','closed','closed','','3106-revision-v1','','','2018-02-09 16:16:31','2018-02-09 21:16:31','',3106,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/3106-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(10037,1,'2017-09-22 15:58:24','2017-09-22 20:58:24','','CAD$150 SUBSCRIPTION 240917','','inherit','open','closed','','cad150-subscription-240917','','','2017-09-23 06:14:35','2017-09-23 11:14:35','',10056,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/CAD150-SUBSCRIPTION-240917.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(10004,16,'2017-09-11 16:04:45','2017-09-11 21:04:45','Thank you for subscribing to the Weekly FX Drive Thru','Free Subscription Confirmation','','publish','closed','closed','','free-subscription-confirmation','','','2017-09-11 16:06:54','2017-09-11 21:06:54','',0,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?page_id=10004',0,'page','',0),(10005,16,'2017-09-11 16:04:17','2017-09-11 21:04:17','Thank you for subscribing to the Weekly FX Drive Thru','Free Subscription Confirmation','','inherit','closed','closed','','10004-revision-v1','','','2017-09-11 16:04:17','2017-09-11 21:04:17','',10004,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/10004-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(10007,1,'2017-09-16 03:46:01','2017-09-16 08:46:01','','ECON DATA 17092017','','inherit','open','closed','','econ-data-17092017','','','2017-09-16 04:27:21','2017-09-16 09:27:21','',10025,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/ECON-DATA-17092017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(10008,1,'2017-09-16 03:46:05','2017-09-16 08:46:05','','TCHART 17092017','','inherit','open','closed','','tchart-17092017','','','2017-09-16 04:27:48','2017-09-16 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09:31:16','',10025,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCAD-D-17092017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(10023,1,'2017-09-16 03:48:46','2017-09-16 08:48:46','','USDCHF D 17092017','','inherit','open','closed','','usdchf-d-17092017','','','2017-09-16 04:31:24','2017-09-16 09:31:24','',10025,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCHF-D-17092017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(10024,1,'2017-09-16 03:48:49','2017-09-16 08:48:49','','USDJPY D 17092017','','inherit','open','closed','','usdjpy-d-17092017','','','2017-09-16 04:31:39','2017-09-16 09:31:39','',10025,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDJPY-D-17092017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(10025,1,'2017-09-16 04:36:14','2017-09-16 09:36:14','&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSo, last week may have been my 250th WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU but from my registered subscribers list only 80 of them received the blog direct to their inbox. In fact I discovered that since returning from a short summer vacation from blogging, only the first 80 registered subscribers have been receiving the blog.\r\n\r\nThe reason…\r\n\r\nI switched website hosts from BLUEHOST (who could not maintain my https status due to their system errors) to SITEGROUND who despite a verbal run through of my requirements, have subsequently advised me that only 80 emails can be sent and plug-ins will not work inside my WORDPRESS account to send emails in batches. I thought that things were quiet, I put it down to the time of the year NOT my new hosting partners.\r\n\r\nYou will NOT be surprised to hear that I have been told the email distribution issue is all my fault… the rules are written down somewhere on the SITEGROUND website and my verbal conversation counts for feck all.\r\n\r\nAs a result, and which additionally may provide a better solution, albeit a little timelier from my perspective, I am now using my CONSTANT CONTACT account for 100% of my FREE NEWSLETTER administration and distribution.\r\n\r\nSuffice to say, this discovery and finding a solution to the problem, has been a bit of a distraction from a trading perspective.\r\n\r\nTwo weeks ago, I launched revised subscription options and subscriber PROMOTION at the same time. Part of the launch was to open up for a week the full PREMIUM SERVICE version of the blog to my FREE NEWSLETTER subscribers. On the basis that only 80 would have had the opportunity to see the complete version, I have decided to repeat the process with this week’s “DRIVE THRU’ blog.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nOver the past week or so, I have been preparing for and I am now almost ready to launch a replacement video about trading with me through THE PREMIUM SERVICE. I just need to put two or three hours to one side to get it done and edited. I know this sounds totally stupid but getting the time is a killer and I consider myself brilliant at TIME MANAGEMENT.\r\n\r\nIn addition…\r\n\r\nI mentioned just before the summer break that I was working on some algorithms for trading. I am still not sure how I get these into the PREMIUM SERVICE but these are now ready for further refinement. Again, I just need a couple of hours with my partners on this and then will hopefully be a quick “GREEN FOR GO”.\r\n\r\nBack to trading …\r\n\r\nI have had one of those weeks; distraction and the nagging of hindsight!\r\n\r\nLike every trader, you try your best to leave the woulda, coulda and shoulda’s behind. Hindsight is just a wonderful thing. Nevertheless, I think it was Bernard Baruch who said, “Nobody ever lost money taking a profit”; so with those words fresh in my mind, I will shut up.\r\n\r\nThe pips are starting to accumulate as I head towards my annual net 10,000 pips target. My house move, a month’s vacation to Australia and New Zealand plus my summer break are all in the rear-view mirror now. If you are considering joining the PREMIUM SERVICE no better time than the present.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>I am on my charge to reaching 10,000 pips before the year end. There are risks attached but I beat my 10,000 pips target in 2014, 2015 and 2016, no reason why I can’t do it again to make 4 years in a row (Check it all out on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the tab HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE).</li>\r\n 	<li>I have a great new subscriber promotion to the PREMIUM SERVICE offer available (Full details in Section 4 of this blog and on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the FX PROMOTIONS tab).</li>\r\n 	<li>My buddies at VANTAGE FX are ready for you if you don\'t have a great broker or you want to add a separate broker for PREMIUM SERVICE trades (Just click the link to VANTAGE FX on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> ).</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nFinally, in this section and I should initially mention it here…\r\n\r\nYou will see from the title of this week’s blog; I have had as far as many of you are probably concerned “A Hallelujah Moment”. I will go into my reasons for my 360-degree turnabout in “THE SOAPBOX” later in the blog in section 5.\r\n\r\nFor those regular followers; I think I had a “nose-bleed” moment when I decided I was going long the cable. It still does not feel quite right having been bearish for 15 months.\r\n\r\nOn the Thursday evening after the BOE Super Thursday, I wrote to PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers telling them that I was now going to change sides and because we are entering the weekend and the fact that North Korea had just launched another missile test, I would look for long GBP trades over the weekend’s charts and start posting trades early this week.\r\n\r\nWTF, as quoted by one of my long-time subscribers “Yer man Gertjan Vlieghe a BOE MPC member somehow read your tweet and decided this was enough to send the cable higher without you”. Very funny. Cable soared through 1.3600 over 220 pips range on the day without the US session. I was asleep through the plough higher from the 1.3400 break out level.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> LAST WEEK – MY TAKE ON SOME KEY EVENTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIn no particular order, here is what floated my boat last week.\r\n\r\n<u>GBP: UK AVERAGE EARNINGS INDEX &amp; “SUPER THURSDAY”. </u>\r\n\r\nI will be going through these headlines later in Section 5 - “THE SOAPBOX” section of the blog.\r\n\r\n<u>USD: INFLATION DATA.\r\n</u>\r\nPPi – dreadful and the USD rallied.\r\n\r\nCore CPI and CPi - Core CPi came in line with expectations and regular CPi was a beat. The USD rallied, sold off, rallied, sold off, rallied and basically it chopped its way throughout Thursday. It was probably not helped by a possible North Korean missile launch news wire.\r\n\r\nCore Retail Sales and Retail Sales – Poor data. Retail Sales was -0.2% against a positive 0.1% and Core Retail Sales 0.2% against 0.5% expectations.\r\n\r\nZero inflation is evident in the Us markets. Demand through Retail Sales has taken a nosedive. It all looks a difficult time for Janet Yellen this week. What has the FED policy done vis-à-vis getting the US economy back on track?\r\n\r\nHere’s a thought…\r\n\r\nAt the FED Press Conference this week. Announce that the poor recent data was due to the weather and that it’s simply transitory as the underlying data supports the current FED policy!\r\n\r\nMy thoughts are US data is much the same as always. If we see good data all I read is FED TO RAISE RATES IN DECEMBER or if we see poor data FED NOT GOING TO RAISE. This is all I see now. I think I have grown so accustomed to this bollocks I do not really read it anymore and I skim the document.\r\n\r\nI think that as traders, we should just react to whatever Janet Yellen says. Everything else is just noise from people who know about as much about what is on the minds of the FOMC as Ozzy my boy Labrador about the FED’S intentions.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>3.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/ECON-DATA-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10007\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/ECON-DATA-17092017-1024x761.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"761\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3.2: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVEL:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10008\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-17092017-1024x852.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"852\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3.3: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:</u>\r\n\r\nThe FOMC is the standout this week. However, there are couple of other bits and pieces that have caught my eye.\r\n\r\nHere are my picks of the upcoming week.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD:</u></strong>  Janet Yellen is back on the stage again. Everything about this Press Conference and Rate Statement is only going to be about two subjects: -\r\n\r\nFirstly, when is the FED going to raise rates again. Before the end of 2017 or spill it over into 2018?\r\n\r\nSecondly, will she provide updates about the FED reducing the size of its balance sheet. By how much and when will they start.\r\n\r\nFrankly, I do not think that the rest matters. She will drone on giving us waffle for a good 15-20 minutes, but at the end of the day, in my opinion its only about the above two points. You will see and hear media account executives asking the same questions 50 different ways to let their managers know that they turned up and weren’t “bunking off”, but at the end of the day it could be all over in a “Wham Bam Thank You Mam” 10 minutes maximum and everyone could be down to the pub after 20 minutes writing their pieces.\r\n\r\nThe drama unfolds at 2PM EST and the Press Conference at 2:30PM EST on Wednesday.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP</u>: </strong>On the back off the HAWKISH BOE last week we have Retail Sales this Tuesday. I can see it now on twitter. BOE to definitely hike in November as Retail Sales beat, or, BOE rate hike this year in question as UK Retails sales miss.\r\n\r\nFor Carney to do a complete u turn is not unheard of.\r\n\r\nIf ever you go to lunch with him, beware if you only have one hour for allocated, as he is so indecisive about his choices, you may end up eating nothing or eating alone. Allegedly, Carney cannot make up his mind what to eat and when he does he keeps changing his mind.\r\n\r\nIt is so bad that in local restaurants, close to the Threadneedle Street area of London that are known to accommodate BOE employees they have alternative Mark Carney menus. They include a clause “Mr. Carney, once you have decided upon your choice of food from our menu you cannot change your mind. Regretfully forward guidance is believed and 100% adopted by our chefs. The direction you have chosen is final”\r\n\r\nDo not be surprised if Carney has you brain in a fecking twist up to the end of this year. He is the master of changing one’s mind. If it were an Olympic sport he would win the GOLD MEDAL.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>CAD</u></strong>: I am a buyer of CAD$ and I am adding to positions, taking profits here and there as the markets chop back and forth. This week we have CPI and Core Retail Sales, this inflation data will be key for the BOC vis-a-vis another interest rate hike before the end of 2017.\r\n\r\nThe economic data from Canada recently has been really good just the odd bit of mixed data, like the Employment numbers when the mix between Full and Part Time jobs was skewed.\r\n\r\nIf this week’s data does NOT rule out another BOC rate hike, I will be adding more positions to my CORE CAD position.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>NZD</u></strong>:  It is the New Zealand 2017 General Election this Friday. I am generally bearish the Kiwi; however, I believe it would be sound to wind back trades ahead of the result. I have already started this with PREMIUM SERVICE trades and I will continue this process through the week.\r\n\r\nI would imagine the start of trading next weekend will be the time for volatility on a grand scale if we are going to see big moves.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>4.1: PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber based Forex support service offering my suggested trade set-ups and market commentary.\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nMONTH TO DATE:  +406 net pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE:      +7,062 net pips\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs on my website  <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n<u>4.2: CURRENT SUBSCRIPTION PROMOTION:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/FALL2017-PROMOTION.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9908\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/FALL2017-PROMOTION-788x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"788\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>\r\n4.3: WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nIf you would like to be in the monthly draw to win a “FREE 30 DAY SUBSCRIPTION” to the PREMIUM SERVICE, valued at CAD$150.00, all you should do is subscribe to receive this FREE NEWSLETTER on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nThis can be done as follows: -\r\n\r\nOn my welcome page just below my cube logo is where you complete your subscription.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>4.4: PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:</u><u>\r\n</u>(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.1: TRADING REVIEW, INSIGHTS and SUMMARY:</u>\r\n\r\nWhat a week last week was.\r\n\r\nI was distracted on several occasions with having to be away to take care of my Jeep’s service but more importantly issues with my new webhost regarding bulk email delivery. The only effective workaround is not to use my WordPress connection through my website but to use my database via constant contact.\r\n\r\nFrom a trading perspective, I have changed views with the cable. I have gone into some detail in “THE SOAPBOX”.\r\n\r\nI tweeted last week after the BOE Super Thursday that I would look for GBP trades into this week, as we were into Friday trading session but especially with the missile launches out of North Korea it made sense to wait. I did not, and frankly no-one could have predicted the comments from Gertjan Vlieghe BOE MPC member. He basically sent his own missile under the GBP. His comments are in a different tone from Carney and we should not get too carried away but that detail would not stop the market reaction. It has been an absolute stellar move across the board.\r\n\r\nI added a good total of net +406 pips in the past seven days which is great but it was a difficult choppy week. Ranges are tightening again (GBP pairs excepted). This is what happens when we are about to have a market SHIFT.\r\n\r\nMarket correlations are just not sitting properly. One day they are trusted the next morning when I check charts the previous alignment has drifted apart. The geopolitical tensions have a great deal to do with this as this directly affects safe havens such as GOLD, plus the JPY and CHF currencies. I must mention though after the missile launch last Thursday, my reaction was complete caution, the market was to shrug it off within a couple of hours. Something is going to give with this and it will be ugly when it happens.\r\n\r\nThe geopolitical events when added to the changes taking place with Central Bank policy throughout the world is also fueling the uncertainties, correlation issues and non-alignments across markets. Central bank uncertainties on future policy timing (FED and ECB), the dovish approach in general changing into a hawkish policy approach (BOC and BOE) and uncertainties in delay by trying to maintain a neutral policy stance over a more hawkish stance (RBA and RBNZ).\r\n\r\nAdd all these factors together and its quite a mixing bowl of ingredients. I am just not convinced on everything FX at the moment, I am fearing the worse. I know that I am slow and steady at this but so much complacency to me is just mental.\r\n\r\nBack to trading…\r\n\r\nLooking forward with trades, I will continue to press forward building a CORE CAD POSITION. Obviously short term NZD/CAD due to election will be restricted, CAD/CHF and CAD/JPY I will watch more closely than before vis-a-via flight to safety. In addition, given the situation with cable I think that GBP/CAD could be tougher unless we see a USD/CAD fall into the 1.1800’s.\r\n\r\nThe CORE NZD position will have to take back seat until the election is over. Friday last week my AUD/NZD took a beating, but as you know for the last 2 years I have been basically long this pair, it is have given some great returns and I will stick with it. My total position size a sizeable broker account is only 40% of a full-sized position. I could ride this pair substantially lower beyond its monthly ATR on STOP LOSS levels, if required, and still not exceed my risk parameters.\r\n\r\nI need to see the election outcome and reaction before committing more trades. My plan this week it to exit NZD related trades ahead of the vote.\r\n\r\nWith regards to the single currency, I am looking to build a CORE LONG POSITION with the EUR. As you know I have started with EUR/USD, to which I will add more set ups and I need to look at the cross rates this week and add. I have a EUR/CAD short that I entered on a SELL STOP below previous good support. It has given me a nasty rebound spike higher. I extended the STOP to stick with this pair as will follow USD/CAD moves. Annoyingly at the moment the USD/CAD is consolidation before resuming its move lower with the trend. Bounces have been minimal so far.\r\n\r\nI have made many references to cable. I will be posting several pullback entries from the get go this week.\r\n\r\nThere will be quite a bit of LIMIT ORDER activity in the early part of the week.\r\n\r\nWe have the FOMC this week as you are aware, it is the draw of the news events. As you have seen, I have adjusted my entry tactics more of late to using momentum as a means of trade entry by using BUY STOPS and SELL STOP orders. These are NOT my preferred means of entering trades but they are working more times than not. I will continue with these for the time being, they should be of use around the FOMC.\r\n\r\nWhilst I am very positive on my trading to obtain results at the moment I do have market concerns as you know and I have raised them again in the blog. I will try tot to get SPOOKED but we ready for mass exits of trades should the ARMAGEDDON situation arise.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.4.2: MARKET SENTIMENT:\r\n\r\n<u><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/SENTIMENT-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10009\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/SENTIMENT-17092017-688x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"688\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.3: USD: MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS with TRADING CHARTS:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10008\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-17092017-1024x852.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"852\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n\r\nPlease note that now that these charts are PREMIUM SERVICE subscriber only, I am now able to have them focused to existing trades and limit orders as well as future intentions.\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>EUR/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/EURUSD-D-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10019\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/EURUSD-D-17092017-1024x511.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"511\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/GBPUSD-W-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10020\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/GBPUSD-W-17092017-1024x511.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"511\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/AUDUSD-D-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10018\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/AUDUSD-D-17092017-1024x511.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"511\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/NZDUSD-D-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10021\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/NZDUSD-D-17092017-1024x511.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"511\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCAD-D-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10022\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCAD-D-17092017-1024x511.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"511\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCHF-D-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10023\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCHF-D-17092017-1024x511.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"511\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\n<u><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDJPY-D-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10024\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDJPY-D-17092017-1024x511.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"511\" /></a></u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.4: EXISTING &amp; POTENTIAL CORE TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\nBasically, I am bearish the CAD and NZD and the two currencies are dominating my thoughts, trades and limit orders at the moment.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE CAD:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nCurrently, I am live the following: -\r\n\r\nCAD/CHF – long\r\nUSD/CAD and EUR/CAD – short\r\n\r\nPlus: - I have SELL STOP limit orders and standard limit orders in position for the USD/CAD.\r\n\r\nI am adding on pullbacks and getting prepared. I see the BOC raising once more this year as they take aim at the housing bubble and personal lending increase’s.\r\n\r\nI am still targeting much lower levels sub 1.2000 with the USD/CAD. This level if broken should drag all CAD pairs stronger.\r\n\r\nA Couple of weeks ago, ScotiaBank released its latest batch of currency targets and thoughts vis-à-vis the markets. It has another rate hike in the mix for Q4 2017 and two more in 2018. If they were all 0.25% rate increases, that would make a grand total rate of 1.75% by the end of 2018.\r\n\r\nIt is a brave call, but I can see it as well given the fundamentals.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: Is to add more USD/CAD trades this coming week and to continue to build a CORE SHORT POSITION that enables me to add to and take pips and $$$ from trades as the CAD strengthens.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE NZD</u></strong>:\r\n\r\nCurrently I have several live long AUD/NZD trades and a NZD/CHF short trade.\r\n\r\nPlus: - One more long AUD/NZD limit order trade, a NZD/JPY short limit order and a EUR/NZD long limit order trades waiting in the wings.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: I am going to reduce NZD exposure this week given the fact that the New Zealand General Election takes place on Friday. I will then look at the market sentiment next week to review my future plan.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE EUR</u></strong>:\r\n\r\nEUR/USD: I have placed multiple LIMIT ORDERS based initially on my thoughts that we would see a larger pullback with the single currency from its break above 1.2000. this materialized only as far as 1.1840.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: I am going to look at adding more LIMIT ORDER set ups over the coming days. I still believe that the EUR/USD is going back towards 1.3000. The rhetoric out of the ECB has been calming, but it is questionable that the market is believing anything that comes out of Frankfurt at the moment.\r\n\r\nI will also look at some EUR crosses once again.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE GBP:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nNothing is in position yet. I believe that there will be some excellent pullback opportunities to enter GBP related trades across the board and I will be looking for these opportunities this week. The only pairs that I am uncertain about are GBP/CAD and GBP/CHF. However, all other crosses should have great potential.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.5: PREMIUM SERVICE – CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE - LIVE TRADES:\r\n\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/LIVE-17092017-1.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10081\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/LIVE-17092017-1-866x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"866\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\nCURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE – LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/LIMIT-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10010\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/LIMIT-17092017-967x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"967\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE SOAPBOX:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>\r\nCARNEY COMES OUT OF THE CLOSET\r\n</strong><strong>(BOE NOW HAWKISH)</strong></p>\r\nOn BOE “Super Thursday” last week interest rates remained on hold but the HAWKISH tone of the Monetary Policy Statement sent the cable on a tear.  Later in the day Mark Carney (BOE Governor) was on the wires fueling the statement content further by openly stating that the next move higher in cable would be upwards and sooner than expected.\r\n\r\nHaving moved about 150 pips on the statement release, Carney’s added comments only placed about another 40 pips on top. It was the comments the following morning (Friday) by BOE MPC member Gertjan Vlieghe, who came out and stated that the increase would be soon and more than a one and done which Carney had intimated the prior day. These comments sent the GBP/USD above 1.3600.\r\n\r\nFrom 1.3150 to 1.3600 (450 pips) in basically 24 hours was what you call a substantial shift in sentiment and a stellar move.\r\n\r\nThe comments from Carney, that he has finally let go of the dovish sentiment and admitted a hike was required after months of denial has brought him out of the closet and the dove has now turned hawk.\r\n\r\nBy coincidence upon receipt of the comments from the BOE, but with no closet involved, I have also changed my GBP bias. I am no longer bearish cable in the short / medium term. I am bullish primarily because with cable above the 1.3450 - 1.3500 levels we are now in a bullish trend. The market is now focused on BOE interest rates rather than the political gaffs surrounding BREXIT.\r\n\r\nNow look…\r\n\r\nI still have massive BREXIT reservations and concerns. Theresa May’s government’s handling of the BREXIT negotiations appears poor and not planned. The Tories have a paper-thin majority in the House of Commons.\r\n\r\nHowever, even with this backdrop it looks like that even without a single BREXIT agreement reached and mass confusion reigning over the negotiations, UK households are going to have more cash pressures placed upon them.\r\n\r\nPersonally, I think that this rate increase should it happen is a recipe for disaster. Never trust accountants in deciding these matters. I have said it before, these pen pushing, desk sucking, jotter blotters do not get out much, they live, breathe and survive on historic data and do NOT take into consideration facts in the reality of the present day.\r\n\r\nYou can bet your bottom dollar that any rate increase will be 100% passed on the mortgages and credit card debt. Households that are currently feeling the effects of inflation are about to get a kick in the nuts as living costs are about to move higher. Look out for defaults on loans, mortgages etc. on the increase in the coming months and for “Vlieghe” to intimate multiple interest rate hikes was reckless as it could start something more than just defaults.\r\n\r\nI know some of you will think that the mere fact that the GBP/USD exchange rate is increasing that this is deflationary, and, I agree, but it is a year away at least to feel the deflationary effect. The debt default issues are bubbling under right now beneath the surface prior to adding more pressure through interest rate increases.\r\n\r\nIn addition, do not forget trade will be effected by rate increases. The balancing act is a difficult one to maintain but I am astonished that the pen pushers have gotten their way. Given all the uncertainties on the economy and with BREXIT I would have ran with higher inflation in Q2 2018.\r\n\r\nThere are still a couple of “not sures” emanating from the BOE statement and comments that followed.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Slow rate increases like the FED?</li>\r\n 	<li>Tapering through Balance Sheet reduction of the QE program when will this commence?</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThere is a BOE inflation report due in November, this looks like the date for the first rate hike. So, we do not have detail but the markets have basically already started to price in a 0.25% rate increase.\r\n\r\nWhilst I can see the move by the BOE and the sentiment change, I can also see the other side. This is a risky decision if they go ahead.\r\n\r\nStarting Monday I will be hunting down GBP long trades based off pullbacks through Fibonacci retracements. All GBP pairs are overbought, EUR/GBP oversold, but there will be some great trading opportunities in the near term to take advantage of.\r\n\r\nThe BOC obtained almost $0.13 cents on their move higher, if cable were to match this, it would be close to 1.4450.  Whilst I cannot see that given the money flows I can see a challenge of 1.3870 the 61.8% retracement from the pre Brexit June 2016 highs (1.5034) to the December 2106 lows (1.1994).\r\n\r\nWhat happens now if we have a catastrophic BREXIT announcement or a leadership battle in the Tory party or another election is called in the next couple of months?\r\n\r\nInteresting times ahead.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #147 PREMIUM SERVICE VERSION\r\nSeptember 17th, 2017\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','CARNEY COMES OUT OF THE CLOSET','','publish','open','closed','','carney-comes-closet','','','2017-09-28 03:49:18','2017-09-28 08:49:18','',0,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?post_type=member_posts&#038;p=10025',0,'member_posts','',0),(10026,1,'2017-09-16 04:36:14','2017-09-16 09:36:14','&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSo, last week may have been my 250th WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU but from my registered subscribers list only 80 of them received the blog direct to their inbox. In fact I discovered that since returning from a short summer vacation from blogging, only the first 80 registered subscribers have been receiving the blog.\r\n\r\nThe reason…\r\n\r\nI switched website hosts from BLUEHOST (who could not maintain my https status due to their system errors) to SITEGROUND who despite a verbal run through of my requirements, have subsequently advised me that only 80 emails can be sent and plug-ins will not work inside my WORDPRESS account to send emails in batches. I thought that things were quiet, I put it down to the time of the year NOT my new hosting partners.\r\n\r\nYou will NOT be surprised to hear that I have been told the email distribution issue is all my fault… the rules are written down somewhere on the SITEGROUND website and my verbal conversation counts for feck all.\r\n\r\nAs a result, and which additionally may provide a better solution, albeit a little timelier from my perspective, I am now using my CONSTANT CONTACT account for 100% of my FREE NEWSLETTER administration and distribution.\r\n\r\nSuffice to say, this discovery and finding a solution to the problem, has been a bit of a distraction from a trading perspective.\r\n\r\nTwo weeks ago, I launched revised subscription options and subscriber PROMOTION at the same time. Part of the launch was to open up for a week the full PREMIUM SERVICE version of the blog to my FREE NEWSLETTER subscribers. On the basis that only 80 would have had the opportunity to see the complete version, I have decided to repeat the process with this week’s “DRIVE THRU’ blog.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nOver the past week or so, I have been preparing for and I am now almost ready to launch a replacement video about trading with me through THE PREMIUM SERVICE. I just need to put two or three hours to one side to get it done and edited. I know this sounds totally stupid but getting the time is a killer and I consider myself brilliant at TIME MANAGEMENT.\r\n\r\nIn addition…\r\n\r\nI mentioned just before the summer break that I was working on some algorithms for trading. I am still not sure how I get these into the PREMIUM SERVICE but these are now ready for further refinement. Again, I just need a couple of hours with my partners on this and then will hopefully be a quick “GREEN FOR GO”.\r\n\r\nBack to trading …\r\n\r\nI have had one of those weeks; distraction and the nagging of hindsight!\r\n\r\nLike every trader, you try your best to leave the woulda, coulda and shoulda’s behind. Hindsight is just a wonderful thing. Nevertheless, I think it was Bernard Baruch who said, “Nobody ever lost money taking a profit”; so with those words fresh in my mind, I will shut up.\r\n\r\nThe pips are starting to accumulate as I head towards my annual net 10,000 pips target. My house move, a month’s vacation to Australia and New Zealand plus my summer break are all in the rear-view mirror now. If you are considering joining the PREMIUM SERVICE no better time than the present.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>I am on my charge to reaching 10,000 pips before the year end. There are risks attached but I beat my 10,000 pips target in 2014, 2015 and 2016, no reason why I can’t do it again to make 4 years in a row (Check it all out on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the tab HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE).</li>\r\n 	<li>I have a great new subscriber promotion to the PREMIUM SERVICE offer available (Full details in Section 4 of this blog and on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the FX PROMOTIONS tab).</li>\r\n 	<li>My buddies at VANTAGE FX are ready for you if you don\'t have a great broker or you want to add a separate broker for PREMIUM SERVICE trades (Just click the link to VANTAGE FX on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> ).</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nFinally, in this section and I should initially mention it here…\r\n\r\nYou will see from the title of this week’s blog; I have had as far as many of you are probably concerned “A Hallelujah Moment”. I will go into my reasons for my 360-degree turnabout in “THE SOAPBOX” later in the blog in section 5.\r\n\r\nFor those regular followers; I think I had a “nose-bleed” moment when I decided I was going long the cable. It still does not feel quite right having been bearish for 15 months.\r\n\r\nOn the Thursday evening after the BOE Super Thursday, I wrote to PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers telling them that I was now going to change sides and because we are entering the weekend and the fact that North Korea had just launched another missile test, I would look for long GBP trades over the weekend’s charts and start posting trades early this week.\r\n\r\nWTF, as quoted by one of my long-time subscribers “Yer man Gertjan Vlieghe a BOE MPC member somehow read your tweet and decided this was enough to send the cable higher without you”. Very funny. Cable soared through 1.3600 over 220 pips range on the day without the US session. I was asleep through the plough higher from the 1.3400 break out level.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> LAST WEEK – MY TAKE ON SOME KEY EVENTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIn no particular order, here is what floated my boat last week.\r\n\r\n<u>GBP: UK AVERAGE EARNINGS INDEX &amp; “SUPER THURSDAY”. </u>\r\n\r\nI will be going through these headlines later in Section 5 - “THE SOAPBOX” section of the blog.\r\n\r\n<u>USD: INFLATION DATA.\r\n</u>\r\nPPi – dreadful and the USD rallied.\r\n\r\nCore CPI and CPi - Core CPi came in line with expectations and regular CPi was a beat. The USD rallied, sold off, rallied, sold off, rallied and basically it chopped its way throughout Thursday. It was probably not helped by a possible North Korean missile launch news wire.\r\n\r\nCore Retail Sales and Retail Sales – Poor data. Retail Sales was -0.2% against a positive 0.1% and Core Retail Sales 0.2% against 0.5% expectations.\r\n\r\nZero inflation is evident in the Us markets. Demand through Retail Sales has taken a nosedive. It all looks a difficult time for Janet Yellen this week. What has the FED policy done vis-à-vis getting the US economy back on track?\r\n\r\nHere’s a thought…\r\n\r\nAt the FED Press Conference this week. Announce that the poor recent data was due to the weather and that it’s simply transitory as the underlying data supports the current FED policy!\r\n\r\nMy thoughts are US data is much the same as always. If we see good data all I read is FED TO RAISE RATES IN DECEMBER or if we see poor data FED NOT GOING TO RAISE. This is all I see now. I think I have grown so accustomed to this bollocks I do not really read it anymore and I skim the document.\r\n\r\nI think that as traders, we should just react to whatever Janet Yellen says. Everything else is just noise from people who know about as much about what is on the minds of the FOMC as Ozzy my boy Labrador about the FED’S intentions.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>3.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/ECON-DATA-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10007\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/ECON-DATA-17092017-1024x761.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"761\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3.2: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVEL:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10008\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-17092017-1024x852.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"852\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3.3: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:\r\n\r\n</u>The FOMC is the standout this week. However, there are couple of other bits and pieces that have caught my eye.\r\n\r\nHere are my picks of the upcoming week.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD:</u></strong>  Janet Yellen is back on the stage again. Everything about this Press Conference and Rate Statement is only going to be about two subjects: -\r\n\r\nFirstly, when is the FED going to raise rates again. Before the end of 2017 or spill it over into 2018?\r\n\r\nSecondly, will she provide updates about the FED reducing the size of its balance sheet. By how much and when will they start.\r\n\r\nFrankly, I do not think that the rest matters. She will drone on giving us waffle for a good 15-20 minutes, but at the end of the day, in my opinion its only about the above two points. You will see and hear media account executives asking the same questions 50 different ways to let their managers know that they turned up and weren’t “bunking off”, but at the end of the day it could be all over in a “Wham Bam Thank You Mam” 10 minutes maximum and everyone could be down to the pub after 20 minutes writing their pieces.\r\n\r\nThe drama unfolds at 2PM EST and the Press Conference at 2:30PM EST on Wednesday.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP</u>: </strong>On the back off the HAWKISH BOE last week we have Retail Sales this Tuesday. I can see it now on twitter. BOE to definitely hike in November as Retail Sales beat, or, BOE rate hike this year in question as UK Retails sales miss.\r\n\r\nFor Carney to do a complete u turn is not unheard of.\r\n\r\nIf ever you go to lunch with him, beware if you only have one hour for allocated, as he is so indecisive about his choices, you may end up eating nothing or eating alone. Allegedly, Carney cannot make up his mind what to eat and when he does he keeps changing his mind.\r\n\r\nIt is so bad that in local restaurants, close to the Threadneedle Street area of London that are known to accommodate BOE employees they have alternative Mark Carney menus. They include a clause “Mr. Carney, once you have decided upon your choice of food from our menu you cannot change your mind. Regretfully forward guidance is believed and 100% adopted by our chefs. The direction you have chosen is final”\r\n\r\nDo not be surprised if Carney has you brain in a fecking twist up to the end of this year. He is the master of changing one’s mind. If it were an Olympic sport he would win the GOLD MEDAL.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>CAD</u></strong>: I am a buyer of CAD$ and I am adding to positions, taking profits here and there as the markets chop back and forth. This week we have CPI and Core Retail Sales, this inflation data will be key for the BOC vis-a-vis another interest rate hike before the end of 2017.\r\n\r\nThe economic data from Canada recently has been really good just the odd bit of mixed data, like the Employment numbers when the mix between Full and Part Time jobs was skewed.\r\n\r\nIf this week’s data does NOT rule out another BOC rate hike, I will be adding more positions to my CORE CAD position.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>NZD</u></strong>:  It is the New Zealand 2017 General Election this Friday. I am generally bearish the Kiwi; however, I believe it would be sound to wind back trades ahead of the result. I have already started this with PREMIUM SERVICE trades and I will continue this process through the week.\r\n\r\nI would imagine the start of trading next weekend will be the time for volatility on a grand scale if we are going to see big moves.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>4.1: PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber based Forex support service offering my suggested trade set-ups and market commentary.\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nMONTH TO DATE:  +406 net pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE:      +7,062 net pips\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs on my website  <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n\r\n<u>4.2: CURRENT SUBSCRIPTION PROMOTION:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/FALL2017-PROMOTION.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9908\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/FALL2017-PROMOTION-788x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"788\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>\r\n4.3: WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nIf you would like to be in the monthly draw to win a “FREE 30 DAY SUBSCRIPTION” to the PREMIUM SERVICE, valued at CAD$150.00, all you should do is subscribe to receive this FREE NEWSLETTER on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nThis can be done as follows: -\r\n\r\nOn my welcome page just below my cube logo is where you complete your subscription.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>4.4: PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:</u><u>\r\n</u>(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.1: TRADING REVIEW, INSIGHTS and SUMMARY:</u>\r\n\r\nWhat a week last week was.\r\n\r\nI was distracted on several occasions with having to be away to take care of my Jeep’s service but more importantly issues with my new webhost regarding bulk email delivery. The only effective workaround is not to use my WordPress connection through my website but to use my database via constant contact.\r\n\r\nFrom a trading perspective, I have changed views with the cable. I have gone into some detail in “THE SOAPBOX”.\r\n\r\nI tweeted last week after the BOE Super Thursday that I would look for GBP trades into this week, as we were into Friday trading session but especially with the missile launches out of North Korea it made sense to wait. I did not, and frankly no-one could have predicted the comments from Gertjan Vlieghe BOE MPC member. He basically sent his own missile under the GBP. His comments are in a different tone from Carney and we should not get too carried away but that detail would not stop the market reaction. It has been an absolute stellar move across the board.\r\n\r\nI added a good total of net +406 pips in the past seven days which is great but it was a difficult choppy week. Ranges are tightening again (GBP pairs excepted). This is what happens when we are about to have a market SHIFT.\r\n\r\nMarket correlations are just not sitting properly. One day they are trusted the next morning when I check charts the previous alignment has drifted apart. The geopolitical tensions have a great deal to do with this as this directly affects safe havens such as GOLD, plus the JPY and CHF currencies. I must mention though after the missile launch last Thursday, my reaction was complete caution, the market was to shrug it off within a couple of hours. Something is going to give with this and it will be ugly when it happens.\r\n\r\nThe geopolitical events when added to the changes taking place with Central Bank policy throughout the world is also fueling the uncertainties, correlation issues and non-alignments across markets. Central bank uncertainties on future policy timing (FED and ECB), the dovish approach in general changing into a hawkish policy approach (BOC and BOE) and uncertainties in delay by trying to maintain a neutral policy stance over a more hawkish stance (RBA and RBNZ).\r\n\r\nAdd all these factors together and its quite a mixing bowl of ingredients. I am just not convinced on everything FX at the moment, I am fearing the worse. I know that I am slow and steady at this but so much complacency to me is just mental.\r\n\r\nBack to trading…\r\n\r\nLooking forward with trades, I will continue to press forward building a CORE CAD POSITION. Obviously short term NZD/CAD due to election will be restricted, CAD/CHF and CAD/JPY I will watch more closely than before vis-a-via flight to safety. In addition, given the situation with cable I think that GBP/CAD could be tougher unless we see a USD/CAD fall into the 1.1800’s.\r\n\r\nThe CORE NZD position will have to take back seat until the election is over. Friday last week my AUD/NZD took a beating, but as you know for the last 2 years I have been basically long this pair, it is have given some great returns and I will stick with it. My total position size a sizeable broker account is only 40% of a full-sized position. I could ride this pair substantially lower beyond its monthly ATR on STOP LOSS levels, if required, and still not exceed my risk parameters.\r\n\r\nI need to see the election outcome and reaction before committing more trades. My plan this week it to exit NZD related trades ahead of the vote.\r\n\r\nWith regards to the single currency, I am looking to build a CORE LONG POSITION with the EUR. As you know I have started with EUR/USD, to which I will add more set ups and I need to look at the cross rates this week and add. I have a EUR/CAD short that I entered on a SELL STOP below previous good support. It has given me a nasty rebound spike higher. I extended the STOP to stick with this pair as will follow USD/CAD moves. Annoyingly at the moment the USD/CAD is consolidation before resuming its move lower with the trend. Bounces have been minimal so far.\r\n\r\nI have made many references to cable. I will be posting several pullback entries from the get go this week.\r\n\r\nThere will be quite a bit of LIMIT ORDER activity in the early part of the week.\r\n\r\nWe have the FOMC this week as you are aware, it is the draw of the news events. As you have seen, I have adjusted my entry tactics more of late to using momentum as a means of trade entry by using BUY STOPS and SELL STOP orders. These are NOT my preferred means of entering trades but they are working more times than not. I will continue with these for the time being, they should be of use around the FOMC.\r\n\r\nWhilst I am very positive on my trading to obtain results at the moment I do have market concerns as you know and I have raised them again in the blog. I will try tot to get SPOOKED but we ready for mass exits of trades should the ARMAGEDDON situation arise.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n\r\n4.4.2: MARKET SENTIMENT:\r\n\r\n</u><u><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/SENTIMENT-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10009\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/SENTIMENT-17092017-688x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"688\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.3: USD: MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS with TRADING CHARTS:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10008\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-17092017-1024x852.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"852\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n\r\nPlease note that now that these charts are PREMIUM SERVICE subscriber only, I am now able to have them focused to existing trades and limit orders as well as future intentions.\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>EUR/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/EURUSD-D-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10019\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/EURUSD-D-17092017-1024x511.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"511\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/GBPUSD-W-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10020\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/GBPUSD-W-17092017-1024x511.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"511\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/AUDUSD-D-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10018\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/AUDUSD-D-17092017-1024x511.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"511\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/NZDUSD-D-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10021\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/NZDUSD-D-17092017-1024x511.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"511\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCAD-D-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10022\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCAD-D-17092017-1024x511.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"511\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCHF-D-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10023\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCHF-D-17092017-1024x511.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"511\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\n<u><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDJPY-D-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10024\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDJPY-D-17092017-1024x511.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"511\" /></a>\r\n\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.4: EXISTING &amp; POTENTIAL CORE TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\nBasically, I am bearish the CAD and NZD and the two currencies are dominating my thoughts, trades and limit orders at the moment.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE CAD:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nCurrently, I am live the following: -\r\n\r\nCAD/CHF – long\r\nUSD/CAD and EUR/CAD – short\r\n\r\nPlus: - I have SELL STOP limit orders and standard limit orders in position for the USD/CAD.\r\n\r\nI am adding on pullbacks and getting prepared. I see the BOC raising once more this year as they take aim at the housing bubble and personal lending increase’s.\r\n\r\nI am still targeting much lower levels sub 1.2000 with the USD/CAD. This level if broken should drag all CAD pairs stronger.\r\n\r\nA Couple of weeks ago, ScotiaBank released its latest batch of currency targets and thoughts vis-à-vis the markets. It has another rate hike in the mix for Q4 2017 and two more in 2018. If they were all 0.25% rate increases, that would make a grand total rate of 1.75% by the end of 2018.\r\n\r\nIt is a brave call, but I can see it as well given the fundamentals.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: Is to add more USD/CAD trades this coming week and to continue to build a CORE SHORT POSITION that enables me to add to and take pips and $$$ from trades as the CAD strengthens.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE NZD</u></strong>:\r\n\r\nCurrently I have 4 x live long AUD/NZD trades and a NZD/CHF short trade.\r\n\r\nPlus: - One more long AUD/NZD limit order trade, a NZD/JPY short limit order and a EUR/NZD long limit order trades waiting in the wings.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: I am going to reduce NZD exposure this week given the fact that the New Zealand General Election takes place on Friday. I will then look at the market sentiment next week to review my future plan.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE EUR</u></strong>:\r\n\r\nEUR/USD: I have placed multiple LIMIT ORDERS based initially on my thoughts that we would see a larger pullback with the single currency from its break above 1.2000. this materialized only as far as 1.1840.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: I am going to look at adding more LIMIT ORDER set ups over the coming days. I still believe that the EUR/USD is going back towards 1.3000. The rhetoric out of the ECB has been calming, but it is questionable that the market is believing anything that comes out of Frankfurt at the moment.\r\n\r\nI will also look at some EUR crosses once again.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE GBP:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nNothing is in position yet. I believe that there will be some excellent pullback opportunities to enter GBP related trades across the board and I will be looking for these opportunities this week. The only pairs that I am uncertain about are GBP/CAD and GBP/CHF. However, all other crosses should have great potential.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.5: PREMIUM SERVICE – CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE - LIVE TRADES:\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/LIVE-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10011\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/LIVE-17092017-839x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"839\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\nCURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE – LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/LIMIT-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10010\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/LIMIT-17092017-967x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"967\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE SOAPBOX:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>\r\nCARNEY COMES OUT OF THE CLOSET\r\n</strong><strong>(BOE NOW HAWKISH)</strong></p>\r\nOn BOE “Super Thursday” last week interest rates remained on hold but the HAWKISH tone of the Monetary Policy Statement sent the cable on a tear.  Later in the day Mark Carney (BOE Governor) was on the wires fueling the statement content further by openly stating that the next move higher in cable would be upwards and sooner than expected.\r\n\r\nHaving moved about 150 pips on the statement release, Carney’s added comments only placed about another 40 pips on top. It was the comments the following morning (Friday) by BOE MPC member Gertjan Vlieghe, who came out and stated that the increase would be soon and more than a one and done which Carney had intimated the prior day. These comments sent the GBP/USD above 1.3600.\r\n\r\nFrom 1.3150 to 1.3600 (450 pips) in basically 24 hours was what you call a substantial shift in sentiment and a stellar move.\r\n\r\nThe comments from Carney, that he has finally let go of the dovish sentiment and admitted a hike was required after months of denial has brought him out of the closet and the dove has now turned hawk.\r\n\r\nBy coincidence upon receipt of the comments from the BOE, but with no closet involved, I have also changed my GBP bias. I am no longer bearish cable in the short / medium term. I am bullish primarily because with cable above the 1.3450 - 1.3500 levels we are now in a bullish trend. The market is now focused on BOE interest rates rather than the political gaffs surrounding BREXIT.\r\n\r\nNow look…\r\n\r\nI still have massive BREXIT reservations and concerns. Theresa May’s government’s handling of the BREXIT negotiations appears poor and not planned. The Tories have a paper-thin majority in the House of Commons.\r\n\r\nHowever, even with this backdrop it looks like that even without a single BREXIT agreement reached and mass confusion reigning over the negotiations, UK households are going to have more cash pressures placed upon them.\r\n\r\nPersonally, I think that this rate increase should it happen is a recipe for disaster. Never trust accountants in deciding these matters. I have said it before, these pen pushing, desk sucking, jotter blotters do not get out much, they live, breathe and survive on historic data and do NOT take into consideration facts in the reality of the present day.\r\n\r\nYou can bet your bottom dollar that any rate increase will be 100% passed on the mortgages and credit card debt. Households that are currently feeling the effects of inflation are about to get a kick in the nuts as living costs are about to move higher. Look out for defaults on loans, mortgages etc. on the increase in the coming months and for “Vlieghe” to intimate multiple interest rate hikes was reckless as it could start something more than just defaults.\r\n\r\nI know some of you will think that the mere fact that the GBP/USD exchange rate is increasing that this is deflationary, and, I agree, but it is a year away at least to feel the deflationary effect. The debt default issues are bubbling under right now beneath the surface prior to adding more pressure through interest rate increases.\r\n\r\nIn addition, do not forget trade will be effected by rate increases. The balancing act is a difficult one to maintain but I am astonished that the pen pushers have gotten their way. Given all the uncertainties on the economy and with BREXIT I would have ran with higher inflation in Q2 2018.\r\n\r\nThere are still a couple of “not sures” emanating from the BOE statement and comments that followed.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Slow rate increases like the FED?</li>\r\n 	<li>Tapering through Balance Sheet reduction of the QE program when will this commence?</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThere is a BOE inflation report due in November, this looks like the date for the first rate hike. So, we do not have detail but the markets have basically already started to price in a 0.25% rate increase.\r\n\r\nWhilst I can see the move by the BOE and the sentiment change, I can also see the other side. This is a risky decision if they go ahead.\r\n\r\nStarting Monday I will be hunting down GBP long trades based off pullbacks through Fibonacci retracements. All GBP pairs are overbought, EUR/GBP oversold, but there will be some great trading opportunities in the near term to take advantage of.\r\n\r\nThe BOC obtained almost $0.13 cents on their move higher, if cable were to match this, it would be close to 1.4450.  Whilst I cannot see that given the money flows I can see a challenge of 1.3870 the 61.8% retracement from the pre Brexit June 2016 highs (1.5034) to the December 2106 lows (1.1994).\r\n\r\nWhat happens now if we have a catastrophic BREXIT announcement or a leadership battle in the Tory party or another election is called in the next couple of months?\r\n\r\nInteresting times ahead.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #147 PREMIUM SERVICE VERSION\r\nSeptember 17th, 2017\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','CARNEY COMES OUT OF THE CLOSET','','inherit','closed','closed','','10025-revision-v1','','','2017-09-16 04:36:14','2017-09-16 09:36:14','',10025,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/10025-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(9997,1,'2017-09-09 07:39:57','2017-09-09 12:39:57','&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nA nice start back to full-time trading and this is my 250th WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU blog. Holy Feck…I never thought I’d still be alive never mind reach 250 posts!\r\n\r\nIt was a great first week back with +325 pips being banked. What is annoying is that I let over 150 pips or so fall through my fingers…argh!!\r\n\r\nLike every trader, you try your best to leave the woulda, coulda and shoulda’s behind. Hindsight is just a wonderful thing. Nevertheless, I think it was Bernard Baruch who said, “Nobody ever lost money taking a profit”; so with those words fresh in my mind, I will shut up.\r\n\r\nThe pips are starting to accumulate as I head towards my annual net 10,000 pips target. My house move, a month’s vacation to Australia and New Zealand plus my summer break are all in the rear-view mirror now. If you are considering joining the PREMIUM SERVICE no better time than the present.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>I am on my charge to reaching 10,000 pips before the year end. There are risks attached but I beat my 10,000 pips target in 2014, 2015 and 2016, no reason why I can’t do it again to make 4 years in a row (Check it all out on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the tab HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE).</li>\r\n 	<li>I have a great new subscriber promotion to the PREMIUM SERVICE offer available (Full details in Section 4 of this blog and on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the FX PROMOTIONS tab).</li>\r\n 	<li>My buddies at VANTAGE FX are ready for you if you don\'t have a great broker or you want to add a separate broker for PREMIUM SERVICE trades (Just click the link to VANTAGE FX on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> ).</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nGeopolitical themes still rule like an iron fist hovering over the markets. Kim Jong-Un has still not bent the knee, although “THE DONALD” has wound back his rhetoric thank God. Speaking last week after visiting the devastation caused by “HARVEY” he appears to have pushed China to act to give North Korea a good slapping.\r\n\r\nTwo visits into Texas, however, I am not sure we will see “THE DONALD” down in Florida for a while at least until after the winds of hurricane “IRMA” have died down and moved off to sea. Could you imagine the cost of the US Navy trying to locate his syrup somewhere in the Atlantic?\r\n\r\nJoking aside and not ignoring the tragic human costs of these storms, the financial cost coupled with basic turmoil within the TRUMP administration, the lack of relationship between the White House and Republicans and now deals being done between the White House and the Democrats feed a giant WTF in <strong>BOLD</strong> font size 144.\r\n\r\nDo we have a “FREELANCE” presidency in the U.S.?\r\n\r\nThink about it.\r\n\r\nThe Republicans in Washington have been in opposition for 8 years. They control both houses of legislature, yet they so in dispute with each other they cannot organize themselves to pass a single election promised piece of law. Republicans appear to be nothing more than self-serving career politicians that cannot unite on a single policy and they have control of both houses… they could really motor on.\r\n\r\nThe Democrats are not much better. Still whining on about losing the election to TRUMP. They have adopted a policy of non- agreement, zero partisanship. They have not sought out a leader to challenge at the next election. All they do is moan TRUMP this and TRUMP that. When the next election comes around they will have no one effective to stand because of their blinkered approach on disruption rather than being solution focused. I see this all-over Facebook and Twitter. Nothing has been learned since the Hillary Clinton elitist approach near the end of the 2016 campaign was poo-pooed by the unsullied.\r\n\r\nSo, TRUMP’S move to by-pass the Republican shambles and do a deal with the Democrats over linking the debt ceiling to the Hurricane costs was either a brilliant strategic manoeuvre and a clear demonstration of his will to get things done and by-pass the party machines, or, it was a nail in the coffin for all his election promises ever being fulfilled.\r\n\r\nWhat it has done in my opinion is solidify his base support. It shows a clear desire to get stuff done.\r\n\r\nWill this be the first of many such moves?\r\n\r\nThe American system encourages dysfunctionality and that it basically what we have seen since 9-11 in American politics. Watch this space.\r\n\r\nInteresting news…\r\n\r\nJanet Yellen’s deputy at the FED, Stanley Fischer is stepping down next month for personal reasons. If Yellen decides enough is enough and does not carry on next January, we could have a new look FED in place…. a TRUMP FED.\r\n\r\nMy thoughts are mixed for the markets, could this mean any year end hike is off based upon the fact the “old guard” would step aside and let the “New kids on the block” decide upon future policy? This point will no doubt be debated heavily in the coming weeks.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> LAST WEEK – MY TAKE ON SOME KEY EVENTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIn no particular order, here is what floated my boat last week.\r\n\r\n<u>EUR: ECB PRESS CONFERENCE. </u>\r\n\r\nMario Draghi, God love the poor fecker… He tried his best with a straight face to try and convince the markets that he could sell them a DOVISH MONETARY POLICY STANCE, whilst at the same time PURSUE A TIGHTER MONETARY POLICY… yup, good luck with that. The ECB Press Conference was billed as being a circus act and Barnum’s and Billy Smart’s would have been delighted as it ticked all the boxes.\r\n\r\nSo, what were the takeaways from Draghi?\r\n\r\nQE to run at €60B per month until December meeting or beyond if required.\r\nEconomic outlook broadly unchanged.\r\nExpansion solid. Broad-based.\r\nFX volatility is a source of uncertainty and requires monitoring.\r\nExpansion not yet translated in Inflation trend.\r\nInflation modest tick-up but still subdued.\r\nSubstantial accommodation still needed.\r\nReady to increase QE if outlook not favourable.\r\n2017 GDP now at 2.2% versus 1.9% seen in June.\r\n2018 GDP unchanged at 1.8%.\r\nHeadline inflation to dip into the year end 2017.\r\nUnderlying inflation to rise gradually over the medium-term.\r\nRecovery is base for confidence that inflation will gradually rise.\r\nRecovery remains dependent on Monetary policy.\r\nConsumption good because disposable income is rising.\r\nExchange Rate not a policy target\r\nWill have to take FX into account in future policy decisions.\r\n\r\nYada, yada, yada, blah, blah and bollocks ….. believe what you want from the above list of bullets I scribed from his speech and Q&amp;A session.\r\n\r\nMost of the above points are open to interpretation to be frank with you, and, it very much depends upon which side of the fence one sits.\r\n\r\nDraghi had a job to do, which was basically put off the markets until October when more data is available and the normalization including Tapering timetable will be discussed.  The ECB has an annoying and frustrating habit of “can kicking issues down the road”. Do NOT be surprised if in October we get 50% of the story and a delay to December.\r\n\r\nIn addition, and in true ECB style, on Friday last week the day after the “circus”, lesser known Governing Council member Philip Lane, Governor of the Irish Central Bank stated the following: - “The accommodative stance will remain until convincing evidence of inflation is seen”. This could be 2018 in full as the strengthening single currency is taking inflation out of the system. Draghi and governing council want the single currency on its arse. Let me re-iterate here lies the problem facing the ECB.\r\n\r\nMeanwhile back in the real world…\r\n\r\nI need to pick a level to enter long the EUR/USD in the coming days. Draghi said / did nothing to stop me thinking 1.3000 is on the way. My big question is how will he tackle zero inflation because the strengthening single currency will cancel out inflation inside the EUROZONE, well a great deal of it anyway.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>CAD: BOC RATE ANNOUNCEMENT and EMPLOYMENT DATA.</u>\r\n\r\nHoly Mother of God; I never thought that BOC Governor, Stephen Poloz had it in him. Two interest rate hikes back to back. The CAD interest rate now stands at 1.00%.\r\n\r\nThat took the market completely by surprise. The market is obsessed and focused on rate movement’s when there is a press conference.  The CAD was absolutely demolished by over 220 pips (USD/CAD), it bounced back across all pairs but frankly it looks doomed to a sub 1.2000 level soon.\r\n\r\nOut of the last rate increase the BOC got some $0.11 cents move lower in USD/CAD, even if they only achieve a $0.05 move this time the pair would fall to 1.1900. My goal and target is much less than this level.\r\n\r\nJust stepping sideways for a moment vis-à-vis the Canadian Jobs data. It was an overall beat, but the mix between Full and Part-time jobs was very disappointing and the USD/CAD initially weakened on the news. Basically, it remained unchanged. The 1.2000 level remains intact for now. It is however WHEN rather than IF, in my opinion, that this psychological round number will be crushed.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>GBP: BREXIT and MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION DATA.</u>\r\n\r\nBREXIT negotiations appear to be STILL moving along the lines of a west-end farce.\r\n\r\nI am NOT surprised, and neither should you be, we are watching career politicians at work. They only know how to attribute blame; they are simply NOT negotiators or problem solvers. This hangs over the UK like the “Sword of Damocles”.\r\n\r\nThe shambles continues; last week, Theresa May must have had a late-night party with her hangers on, and some numpty must have suggested writing to the FTSE Top 100 companies to ask them to get on board with Tory plans on BREXIT…. WTF. That goes down in the history books as another seemed like a good idea at the time moments. For God’s sake give me a break, even my Labrador Ozzy has more brains than that. Makes you think… doesn\'t it?\r\n\r\nThis letter comes on the back of a piece I read on BLOOMBERG about the UK negotiators perhaps looking for time to conclude the negotiations. What can I say here that even I could be happy with from a controlled language expletive perspective?\r\n\r\nWhat a f**king load of f**king bollocks, these tossers are paid a s**t load of people’s hard earned cash to do a f**king job. They have known the f**king timetable for f**king months. It’s about time they took their heads out of their arses, grew a pair, man up and get the job done to the best of their ability and let the population decide if they are a load of ineffective wan**rs or not when the f**king negotiations are finished.  The people voted over a year ago and f**k all has been done.\r\n\r\nOne Prozac later…\r\n\r\nThis past week or so UK economic data has been very mixed. Markets being markets, experts being experts and analyst’s being analyst’, they are all looking to be “Billy’s” and pick the bottom. If you pick bottoms all you get are smelly fingers. Manufacturing Production numbers came out last Friday morning, it was a beat at 0.5% versus market expectations of 0.3%. The Cable leaped up like a salmon on the good news and this move was exacerbated by continued USD weakness.\r\n\r\nHowever, as I wrote last week despite the bounce in the GBP/USD, which in my opinion is more about USD weakness than cable strength, I remain bearish cable longer-term and I stand by everything I have written in earlier blogs about timings and FX targets. I am still to this day astonished by the continual reference to “HARD or SOFT BREXIT”. For crying out loud; there is NO SOFT BREXIT. The EUROZONE cannot afford a SOFT BREXIT because it could potentially create a CONTAGION.\r\n\r\nI am STILL in the camp that there is a better than 50% probability that NO BREXIT deal will be achieved.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>3.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/ECON-DATA-10092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9970\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/ECON-DATA-10092017-1024x769.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"769\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3.2: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-10092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9971\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-10092017-1024x852.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"852\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3.3: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:</u>\r\n\r\nEconomic data releases this week are a bit thin on the ground but nevertheless I am sure that there will be plenty of fun for those who want to get involved.\r\n\r\nHere are my picks of the upcoming week.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>AUD:</u></strong>  Jobs data this week for the Australian Economy.  This has been a hit and miss number of late. Either a blowout or a bit weird number is produced. I am therefore on the fence here. We have seen big numbers posted for new jobs only to find that the mix of full and part time positions was skewed in favour of part-time.\r\n\r\nLast week on poor data the AUD/USD broke 0.8000 and then 0.8100. So why am I debating the response to good or bad data?\r\n\r\nBasically, the AUD looks a strong currency at the moment and a bigger upside break looks more on the cards than a move lower. This looks on the cards despite the RBA remaining neutral. I must only imagine RBA Governor Lowe is grateful he remained neutral, if he was HAWKISH I think we would be looking closer to 0.8500 at the moment given the way that the DXY has been behaving.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP:</u></strong>  CPi, Retail Sales, Average Earnings Index and the MPC vote with the interest rate announcement. I am in the minority, I know this, but I am still looking at the cable at 1.2000 at the end of 2017. It has spiked higher recently, however, I believe this is more of a move based from the weak USD (DXY) rather than UK economic supporting data.\r\n\r\nBREXIT is a shambolic affair. Theresa May is apparently delivering a major speech on September 21st to parliament on her timetable, negotiating timetable, successes and failures etc. This should be funnier than an episode of Frasier or The Big Bang Theory. The BREXIT successes should have me rolling about on the floor. That will be a short section of the speech if you are in anyway distracted for a second or two you may miss that bit.\r\n\r\nBack to the data dump…\r\n\r\nCPI and Retail Sales will be misses unless tourism boosts these numbers. Disposable incomes have been sharply eaten into with inflation.\r\n\r\nWages have shown signs of life of late but are still not keeping pace with inflation and I expect this to remain the case this Wednesday when the latest numbers are released. This is placing pressure on household disposable income.\r\n\r\nI have heard many rather glib comments from mainly non-UK bodies saying that with UK inflation above the 2% target a 0.25% rate hike won’t make too much of a difference. I hear and I read the comments and my immediate well thought out response is bollocks.\r\n\r\nRate hikes would be passed on at almost double the 0.25% hike onto credit cards, credit lines and overdrafts without any thought by the high-street banks. Much of the already disappearing household disposable income caused by inflation that remains will just be annihilated by an interest rate increase. In my opinion, this would be one of the biggest f**k ups ever by a Central Bank. I just don\'t see it.\r\n\r\nSo, I see Mark Carney, BOE Governor fumbling his way through a no change statement remaining vigilant and accommodative well into 2018.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD:</u></strong> We enter another week in the life of a TRUMP administration. Dysfunctional Washington persists and frankly looking at the US data I am becoming less and less interested as reactions are short lived as the USD is more responsive to twitter and headline news than economic data.\r\n\r\nWe have key inflation data this week. PPi, CPi and view of the consumer via Retail Sales. I would normally say these are crucial numbers for the FED to dissect vis-à-vis Monetary Policy normalization.\r\n\r\nMy thoughts, being a cynical fecker is that the ECB and FED have done a deal to both move in December. The FED will raise again regardless and this will help the ECB from rip roaring to 1.3000 in a few weeks.\r\n\r\nWe have been given a curveball by the FED telling us that they are looking more at its Balance Sheet reduction as a priority over interest rate normalization.\r\n\r\nBack to the data…\r\n\r\nAs long as, PPi and CPi are positive, I believe the markets will be happy enough. Retail Sales will have to match the last print at 0.6% as a minimum in my opinion. Anything less than these bare minimums will send the DXY crashing.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>4.1: PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber based Forex support service offering my suggested trade set-ups and market commentary.\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nMONTH TO DATE:  +325 net pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE:      +6,656 net pips\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs on my website  <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n<u>4.2: NEW SUBSCRIPTION OPTIONS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/SUBSCRIPTION-CHANGES-FALL2017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9907\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/SUBSCRIPTION-CHANGES-FALL2017-799x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"799\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u>4.3: CURRENT SUBSCRIPTION PROMOTION:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/FALL2017-PROMOTION.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9908\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/FALL2017-PROMOTION-788x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"788\" height=\"1024\" /></a><u>\r\n</u><u>\r\n4.4: WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you would like to be in the monthly draw to win a “FREE 30 DAY SUBSCRIPTION” to the PREMIUM SERVICE, valued at CAD$150.00, all you should do is subscribe to receive this FREE NEWSLETTER on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nThis can be done as follows: -\r\n\r\nOn my welcome page just below my cube logo is where you complete your subscription.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>4.5: PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:</u><u>\r\n</u>(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this content of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4.5.1: TRADING REVIEW, INSIGHTS and SUMMARY:</u>\r\n<u>\r\n4.5.2: MARKET SENTIMENT:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.5.3: USD: MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS with TRADING CHARTS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n4.5.4: CORE TRADES, ASSOCIATED NEWS and INSIGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.5.5: PREMIUM SERVICE – CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE SOAPBOX:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>\r\nTIPPING POINTS, STRUCTURAL RE-ALIGNMENTS, </strong><strong>MARKET STABILITY and DXY to 87.50?</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nThat\'s quite a lot to take in…\r\n\r\nIt seems like a life time ago, but it was in fact only July when I wrote back to back blogs about the TIPPING POINT and a market STRUCTURAL RE-ALIGNMENT.\r\n\r\nAs a macro, FUNDAMENTAL thinker / trader first I am usually either ahead of the market by varying degrees or sometimes just never there at all as my thought process may never play out the way that I had originally thought for one reason or a combination of reasons.\r\n\r\nRecently, trading or attempting to trade the USD to the long side has been like trying to roll a snowball up hill. Yes, there have been opportunities but they are few and far between. Just looking at the USD Index (DXY) chart below shows that basically since “THE DONALD’S” inauguration the DXY has been on a slide lower.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/DXY-10092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9979\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/DXY-10092017-1024x504.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"504\" /></a>\r\n\r\nThe simple fact is that the USD could slip below the current 91.00 level of support, break through the 90.00 psychological number and then maybe take a run at 87.50.\r\n\r\nThis potential move lower sits well with the administrations ideology of a weak USD and a low interest rate policy.\r\n\r\nThe potential moves ahead with the single currency should also fuel this decline in the USD as when the ECB announces its path to interest rate normalization the EUR should strengthen creating further USD weakness.\r\n\r\nThe backdrop to all this conjecture is that Central Banks around the globe all have maintaining MARKET STABILITY as a written or in some cases an unwritten rule.\r\n\r\nThere are so many factors influencing movements in price at the moment MARKET STABILITY appears to be somewhat lost, although to his credit Mario Draghi referenced it on a few occasions last Thursday in his ECB Press Conference. The truth is the markets could not give a rat’s hairy ass about STABILITY when FEAR and GREED are dominating the process, which they are for now.\r\n\r\nThe U.S. has two impending massive natural disasters on its plate, and the threat of war from North Korea. A President who is not trusted by his alleged party of allegiance and also but not surprisingly by the opposition party that are only interested in disruption rather than making the U.S. a better place to live and work, is a recipe for continued uncertainly and total instability. The U.S. is so dysfunctional and so far up its own arse it cannot see what it is doing to itself and it is fast becoming a laughing stock for onlookers around the globe.\r\n\r\nYet, with all this going on, the U.S. stock market is close to its highs. Quite staggering and incomprehensible to myself and possibly a few others.\r\n\r\nSo where am I going?\r\n\r\nLet me get there piece by piece….\r\n\r\nI have often said to new traders something along the lines of the following: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Trading currencies is essentially routine.</li>\r\n 	<li>Routine can be boring.</li>\r\n 	<li>There are classic market alignments and correlations.</li>\r\n 	<li>First thing in the morning when I go to my screens, I check the following charts, these are my LEAD INDICATORS: - DXY, GOLD, OIL, COPPER, S&amp;P, US10YEARNOTE, USD/CAD, USD/SEK, AUD/JPY and USD/JPY. This looks labour intensive and it can be but from my perspective essential background. It does not even allow for the reading material that I go through with coffee each morning.</li>\r\n 	<li>If my alignments and correlations whether they be inter-market or inter-currency are off, I have a RED FLAG.</li>\r\n 	<li>Having completed what I call my market research I look through trading charts, at the same time as checking open trades and limit orders to verify are they still tradeable entries or not?</li>\r\n 	<li>I watch/listen to BLOOMBERG in the background on my iPAD PRO, to listen out for geopolitical news and events that could influence my trading.</li>\r\n 	<li>All this take’s about an hour, but I have found over the past 10 years of trading it works for me. I trade for the long haul. There is a market 5 days a week. I can miss a day if I do NOT like the way the market looks or performs. Why put yourself at RISK? Is not one of a trader’s key goals and objective to MANAGE RISK?</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThis routine is all well and good karma. However, of late it in my opinion the market has become news driven rather than economically driven. This creates a dysfunctional market where correlations do matter but tend to be skewed… RED FLAG.\r\n\r\nCurrency relationships look awkward and no longer aligned to RISK … RED FLAG.\r\n\r\nAll the research in the world means feck all.\r\n\r\nWe are very quickly approaching the TIPPING POINT I referred to back in July. We are about to see the USD drop like a lead balloon and the EUR rip higher. Just the moves lower in the USD and higher in the EUR would cause a TIPPING POINT and a STRUCTURAL RE-ALIGNMENT in the FX market.\r\n\r\nNever mind what influences the Central Banks have, or believe that they have. Most of the Central Banks around the globe related to G7 countries have credibility issues with the markets. The BOE, BOJ, ECB and even the FED to some extent are classics in recent history. When the news is DOVISH / ACCOMODATIVE it’s easy to communicate. However, when turning HAWKISH as those listed have found to their detriment it is much more difficult to effectively communicate and maintain MARKET STABILITY.\r\n\r\nOnly the BOC under Stephen Poloz has delivered his promise quickly and smoothly. The BOC received so much bang for their buck out of two 0.25% rate increases. I realise it’s much easier for a small economy like Canada but it is still a G7 and G10 country.\r\n\r\nI would add the SNB under Thomas Jordan has also been relatively consistent and Philip Lowe having replaced Glenn Stevens at the RBA appears to be very clear and unambiguous with his commentary.\r\n\r\nBack on track…\r\n\r\nMoving to interest rate normalization around the globe will happen and the fact that U.S. is struggling for a multitude of reasons already mentioned means that at the end of this year we could have both the FED and ECB with major announcements at the same time…fluke or by design?\r\n\r\nI believe that the FED has a deal done with the ECB to raise rates in December when the ECB will announce more details about policy normalization. I think October for ECB is a “can kicking” exercise and that December will be the real deal.\r\n\r\nDecember looks primed to start the FX RE-ALIGNMENT but it will not be as volatile if both Central Banks (FED &amp; ECB) go together. December is a great month for releasing data for obvious reasons, holidays, end of year etc. and both Central Banks have back to back meetings.\r\n\r\n13th December – FOMC (FED)\r\n14th December – ECB – Press Conference in Frankfurt.\r\n\r\nThe G10 Central Bank leaders do talk to each other. I for one would NOT be surprised if a handshake over a glass of red has taken place over timings.\r\n\r\nGiven the desire and concerns over MARKET STABILITY do NOT rule out a coordinated policy announcement ahead of the dates of these meetings to announce change at the same time. It has been done before.\r\n\r\nIt could happen but maybe not.\r\n\r\nAt the end of the day what would the FX world look like?\r\n\r\nI still believe that no matter what is attempted, the USD is on very rocky ground. Fundamentally I cannot see Washington kissing and making up party to party or President to either party so dysfunctionality will remain in place.\r\n\r\nFair value for the single currency even with another 0.25% on the U.S. rate must still be in the 1.3000 range, but it is not about where fair value lies it’s how it gravitates to the level that is the important consideration.\r\n\r\nAt EUR/USD at 1.3000.\r\n\r\nEUR crosses would all be elevated from current levels and the majors would be elevated and re-aligned as well as a consequence.\r\n\r\nThat is when the real fun starts.\r\n\r\nHow will the RBA and RBNZ feel when their currencies are at 0.9000 and maybe 0.8000 levels once again? Competitiveness would suffer unless it was a balanced increase across the board.\r\n\r\nIt is possible that we enter currency wars 2.0?\r\n\r\nTIPPING POINTS, RE-ALIGNMENTS both have consequences and MARKET STABILITY may suffer despite a great deal of effort and planning being introduced. Then we have the DXY to 87.50. I hate using the words “Nailed on”, but I just see this happening. There is absolutely nothing that tells me to buy USD at the moment, apart from the fact its oversold and stretched.\r\n\r\nI just see 87.50 as inevitable moving forward.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #250 FREE NEWSLETTER VERSION\r\nSeptember 10th, 2017\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','TIPPING POINTS, STRUCTURAL RE-ALIGNMENTS, MARKET STABILITY and DXY to 87.50?','','publish','open','closed','','tipping-points-structural-re-alignments-market-stability-dxy-87-50','','','2017-09-09 07:41:05','2017-09-09 12:41:05','',0,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?p=9997',0,'post','',0),(9998,1,'2017-09-09 07:39:57','2017-09-09 12:39:57','&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nA nice start back to full-time trading and this is my 250th WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU blog. Holy Feck…I never thought I’d still be alive never mind reach 250 posts!\r\n\r\nIt was a great first week back with +325 pips being banked. What is annoying is that I let over 150 pips or so fall through my fingers…argh!!\r\n\r\nLike every trader, you try your best to leave the woulda, coulda and shoulda’s behind. Hindsight is just a wonderful thing. Nevertheless, I think it was Bernard Baruch who said, “Nobody ever lost money taking a profit”; so with those words fresh in my mind, I will shut up.\r\n\r\nThe pips are starting to accumulate as I head towards my annual net 10,000 pips target. My house move, a month’s vacation to Australia and New Zealand plus my summer break are all in the rear-view mirror now. If you are considering joining the PREMIUM SERVICE no better time than the present.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>I am on my charge to reaching 10,000 pips before the year end. There are risks attached but I beat my 10,000 pips target in 2014, 2015 and 2016, no reason why I can’t do it again to make 4 years in a row (Check it all out on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the tab HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE).</li>\r\n 	<li>I have a great new subscriber promotion to the PREMIUM SERVICE offer available (Full details in Section 4 of this blog and on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the FX PROMOTIONS tab).</li>\r\n 	<li>My buddies at VANTAGE FX are ready for you if you don\'t have a great broker or you want to add a separate broker for PREMIUM SERVICE trades (Just click the link to VANTAGE FX on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> ).</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nGeopolitical themes still rule like an iron fist hovering over the markets. Kim Jong-Un has still not bent the knee, although “THE DONALD” has wound back his rhetoric thank God. Speaking last week after visiting the devastation caused by “HARVEY” he appears to have pushed China to act to give North Korea a good slapping.\r\n\r\nTwo visits into Texas, however, I am not sure we will see “THE DONALD” down in Florida for a while at least until after the winds of hurricane “IRMA” have died down and moved off to sea. Could you imagine the cost of the US Navy trying to locate his syrup somewhere in the Atlantic?\r\n\r\nJoking aside and not ignoring the tragic human costs of these storms, the financial cost coupled with basic turmoil within the TRUMP administration, the lack of relationship between the White House and Republicans and now deals being done between the White House and the Democrats feed a giant WTF in <strong>BOLD</strong> font size 144.\r\n\r\nDo we have a “FREELANCE” presidency in the U.S.?\r\n\r\nThink about it.\r\n\r\nThe Republicans in Washington have been in opposition for 8 years. They control both houses of legislature, yet they so in dispute with each other they cannot organize themselves to pass a single election promised piece of law. Republicans appear to be nothing more than self-serving career politicians that cannot unite on a single policy and they have control of both houses… they could really motor on.\r\n\r\nThe Democrats are not much better. Still whining on about losing the election to TRUMP. They have adopted a policy of non- agreement, zero partisanship. They have not sought out a leader to challenge at the next election. All they do is moan TRUMP this and TRUMP that. When the next election comes around they will have no one effective to stand because of their blinkered approach on disruption rather than being solution focused. I see this all-over Facebook and Twitter. Nothing has been learned since the Hillary Clinton elitist approach near the end of the 2016 campaign was poo-pooed by the unsullied.\r\n\r\nSo, TRUMP’S move to by-pass the Republican shambles and do a deal with the Democrats over linking the debt ceiling to the Hurricane costs was either a brilliant strategic manoeuvre and a clear demonstration of his will to get things done and by-pass the party machines, or, it was a nail in the coffin for all his election promises ever being fulfilled.\r\n\r\nWhat it has done in my opinion is solidify his base support. It shows a clear desire to get stuff done.\r\n\r\nWill this be the first of many such moves?\r\n\r\nThe American system encourages dysfunctionality and that it basically what we have seen since 9-11 in American politics. Watch this space.\r\n\r\nInteresting news…\r\n\r\nJanet Yellen’s deputy at the FED, Stanley Fischer is stepping down next month for personal reasons. If Yellen decides enough is enough and does not carry on next January, we could have a new look FED in place…. a TRUMP FED.\r\n\r\nMy thoughts are mixed for the markets, could this mean any year end hike is off based upon the fact the “old guard” would step aside and let the “New kids on the block” decide upon future policy? This point will no doubt be debated heavily in the coming weeks.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> LAST WEEK – MY TAKE ON SOME KEY EVENTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIn no particular order, here is what floated my boat last week.\r\n\r\n<u>EUR: ECB PRESS CONFERENCE. </u>\r\n\r\nMario Draghi, God love the poor fecker… He tried his best with a straight face to try and convince the markets that he could sell them a DOVISH MONETARY POLICY STANCE, whilst at the same time PURSUE A TIGHTER MONETARY POLICY… yup, good luck with that. The ECB Press Conference was billed as being a circus act and Barnum’s and Billy Smart’s would have been delighted as it ticked all the boxes.\r\n\r\nSo, what were the takeaways from Draghi?\r\n\r\nQE to run at €60B per month until December meeting or beyond if required.\r\nEconomic outlook broadly unchanged.\r\nExpansion solid. Broad-based.\r\nFX volatility is a source of uncertainty and requires monitoring.\r\nExpansion not yet translated in Inflation trend.\r\nInflation modest tick-up but still subdued.\r\nSubstantial accommodation still needed.\r\nReady to increase QE if outlook not favourable.\r\n2017 GDP now at 2.2% versus 1.9% seen in June.\r\n2018 GDP unchanged at 1.8%.\r\nHeadline inflation to dip into the year end 2017.\r\nUnderlying inflation to rise gradually over the medium-term.\r\nRecovery is base for confidence that inflation will gradually rise.\r\nRecovery remains dependent on Monetary policy.\r\nConsumption good because disposable income is rising.\r\nExchange Rate not a policy target\r\nWill have to take FX into account in future policy decisions.\r\n\r\nYada, yada, yada, blah, blah and bollocks ….. believe what you want from the above list of bullets I scribed from his speech and Q&amp;A session.\r\n\r\nMost of the above points are open to interpretation to be frank with you, and, it very much depends upon which side of the fence one sits.\r\n\r\nDraghi had a job to do, which was basically put off the markets until October when more data is available and the normalization including Tapering timetable will be discussed.  The ECB has an annoying and frustrating habit of “can kicking issues down the road”. Do NOT be surprised if in October we get 50% of the story and a delay to December.\r\n\r\nIn addition, and in true ECB style, on Friday last week the day after the “circus”, lesser known Governing Council member Philip Lane, Governor of the Irish Central Bank stated the following: - “The accommodative stance will remain until convincing evidence of inflation is seen”. This could be 2018 in full as the strengthening single currency is taking inflation out of the system. Draghi and governing council want the single currency on its arse. Let me re-iterate here lies the problem facing the ECB.\r\n\r\nMeanwhile back in the real world…\r\n\r\nI need to pick a level to enter long the EUR/USD in the coming days. Draghi said / did nothing to stop me thinking 1.3000 is on the way. My big question is how will he tackle zero inflation because the strengthening single currency will cancel out inflation inside the EUROZONE, well a great deal of it anyway.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>CAD: BOC RATE ANNOUNCEMENT and EMPLOYMENT DATA.</u>\r\n\r\nHoly Mother of God; I never thought that BOC Governor, Stephen Poloz had it in him. Two interest rate hikes back to back. The CAD interest rate now stands at 1.00%.\r\n\r\nThat took the market completely by surprise. The market is obsessed and focused on rate movement’s when there is a press conference.  The CAD was absolutely demolished by over 220 pips (USD/CAD), it bounced back across all pairs but frankly it looks doomed to a sub 1.2000 level soon.\r\n\r\nOut of the last rate increase the BOC got some $0.11 cents move lower in USD/CAD, even if they only achieve a $0.05 move this time the pair would fall to 1.1900. My goal and target is much less than this level.\r\n\r\nJust stepping sideways for a moment vis-à-vis the Canadian Jobs data. It was an overall beat, but the mix between Full and Part-time jobs was very disappointing and the USD/CAD initially weakened on the news. Basically, it remained unchanged. The 1.2000 level remains intact for now. It is however WHEN rather than IF, in my opinion, that this psychological round number will be crushed.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>GBP: BREXIT and MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION DATA.</u>\r\n\r\nBREXIT negotiations appear to be STILL moving along the lines of a west-end farce.\r\n\r\nI am NOT surprised, and neither should you be, we are watching career politicians at work. They only know how to attribute blame; they are simply NOT negotiators or problem solvers. This hangs over the UK like the “Sword of Damocles”.\r\n\r\nThe shambles continues; last week, Theresa May must have had a late-night party with her hangers on, and some numpty must have suggested writing to the FTSE Top 100 companies to ask them to get on board with Tory plans on BREXIT…. WTF. That goes down in the history books as another seemed like a good idea at the time moments. For God’s sake give me a break, even my Labrador Ozzy has more brains than that. Makes you think… doesn\'t it?\r\n\r\nThis letter comes on the back of a piece I read on BLOOMBERG about the UK negotiators perhaps looking for time to conclude the negotiations. What can I say here that even I could be happy with from a controlled language expletive perspective?\r\n\r\nWhat a f**king load of f**king bollocks, these tossers are paid a s**t load of people’s hard earned cash to do a f**king job. They have known the f**king timetable for f**king months. It’s about time they took their heads out of their arses, grew a pair, man up and get the job done to the best of their ability and let the population decide if they are a load of ineffective wan**rs or not when the f**king negotiations are finished.  The people voted over a year ago and f**k all has been done.\r\n\r\nOne Prozac later…\r\n\r\nThis past week or so UK economic data has been very mixed. Markets being markets, experts being experts and analyst’s being analyst’, they are all looking to be “Billy’s” and pick the bottom. If you pick bottoms all you get are smelly fingers. Manufacturing Production numbers came out last Friday morning, it was a beat at 0.5% versus market expectations of 0.3%. The Cable leaped up like a salmon on the good news and this move was exacerbated by continued USD weakness.\r\n\r\nHowever, as I wrote last week despite the bounce in the GBP/USD, which in my opinion is more about USD weakness than cable strength, I remain bearish cable longer-term and I stand by everything I have written in earlier blogs about timings and FX targets. I am still to this day astonished by the continual reference to “HARD or SOFT BREXIT”. For crying out loud; there is NO SOFT BREXIT. The EUROZONE cannot afford a SOFT BREXIT because it could potentially create a CONTAGION.\r\n\r\nI am STILL in the camp that there is a better than 50% probability that NO BREXIT deal will be achieved.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>3.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/ECON-DATA-10092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9970\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/ECON-DATA-10092017-1024x769.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"769\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3.2: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-10092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9971\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-10092017-1024x852.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"852\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3.3: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:\r\n\r\n</u>Economic data releases this week are a bit thin on the ground but nevertheless I am sure that there will be plenty of fun for those who want to get involved.\r\n\r\nHere are my picks of the upcoming week.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>AUD:</u></strong>  Jobs data this week for the Australian Economy.  This has been a hit and miss number of late. Either a blowout or a bit weird number is produced. I am therefore on the fence here. We have seen big numbers posted for new jobs only to find that the mix of full and part time positions was skewed in favour of part-time.\r\n\r\nLast week on poor data the AUD/USD broke 0.8000 and then 0.8100. So why am I debating the response to good or bad data?\r\n\r\nBasically, the AUD looks a strong currency at the moment and a bigger upside break looks more on the cards than a move lower. This looks on the cards despite the RBA remaining neutral. I must only imagine RBA Governor Lowe is grateful he remained neutral, if he was HAWKISH I think we would be looking closer to 0.8500 at the moment given the way that the DXY has been behaving.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP:</u></strong>  CPi, Retail Sales, Average Earnings Index and the MPC vote with the interest rate announcement. I am in the minority, I know this, but I am still looking at the cable at 1.2000 at the end of 2017. It has spiked higher recently, however, I believe this is more of a move based from the weak USD (DXY) rather than UK economic supporting data.\r\n\r\nBREXIT is a shambolic affair. Theresa May is apparently delivering a major speech on September 21st to parliament on her timetable, negotiating timetable, successes and failures etc. This should be funnier than an episode of Frasier or The Big Bang Theory. The BREXIT successes should have me rolling about on the floor. That will be a short section of the speech if you are in anyway distracted for a second or two you may miss that bit.\r\n\r\nBack to the data dump…\r\n\r\nCPI and Retail Sales will be misses unless tourism boosts these numbers. Disposable incomes have been sharply eaten into with inflation.\r\n\r\nWages have shown signs of life of late but are still not keeping pace with inflation and I expect this to remain the case this Wednesday when the latest numbers are released. This is placing pressure on household disposable income.\r\n\r\nI have heard many rather glib comments from mainly non-UK bodies saying that with UK inflation above the 2% target a 0.25% rate hike won’t make too much of a difference. I hear and I read the comments and my immediate well thought out response is bollocks.\r\n\r\nRate hikes would be passed on at almost double the 0.25% hike onto credit cards, credit lines and overdrafts without any thought by the high-street banks. Much of the already disappearing household disposable income caused by inflation that remains will just be annihilated by an interest rate increase. In my opinion, this would be one of the biggest f**k ups ever by a Central Bank. I just don\'t see it.\r\n\r\nSo, I see Mark Carney, BOE Governor fumbling his way through a no change statement remaining vigilant and accommodative well into 2018.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD:</u></strong> We enter another week in the life of a TRUMP administration. Dysfunctional Washington persists and frankly looking at the US data I am becoming less and less interested as reactions are short lived as the USD is more responsive to twitter and headline news than economic data.\r\n\r\nWe have key inflation data this week. PPi, CPi and view of the consumer via Retail Sales. I would normally say these are crucial numbers for the FED to dissect vis-à-vis Monetary Policy normalization.\r\n\r\nMy thoughts, being a cynical fecker is that the ECB and FED have done a deal to both move in December. The FED will raise again regardless and this will help the ECB from rip roaring to 1.3000 in a few weeks.\r\n\r\nWe have been given a curveball by the FED telling us that they are looking more at its Balance Sheet reduction as a priority over interest rate normalization.\r\n\r\nBack to the data…\r\n\r\nAs long as, PPi and CPi are positive, I believe the markets will be happy enough. Retail Sales will have to match the last print at 0.6% as a minimum in my opinion. Anything less than these bare minimums will send the DXY crashing.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>4.1: PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber based Forex support service offering my suggested trade set-ups and market commentary.\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nMONTH TO DATE:  +325 net pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE:      +6,656 net pips\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs on my website  <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n\r\n<u>4.2: NEW SUBSCRIPTION OPTIONS:\r\n\r\n</u><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/SUBSCRIPTION-CHANGES-FALL2017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9907\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/SUBSCRIPTION-CHANGES-FALL2017-799x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"799\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u>4.3: CURRENT SUBSCRIPTION PROMOTION:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/FALL2017-PROMOTION.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9908\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/FALL2017-PROMOTION-788x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"788\" height=\"1024\" /></a><u>\r\n</u><u>\r\n4.4: WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you would like to be in the monthly draw to win a “FREE 30 DAY SUBSCRIPTION” to the PREMIUM SERVICE, valued at CAD$150.00, all you should do is subscribe to receive this FREE NEWSLETTER on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nThis can be done as follows: -\r\n\r\nOn my welcome page just below my cube logo is where you complete your subscription.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>4.5: PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:</u><u>\r\n</u>(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this content of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4.5.1: TRADING REVIEW, INSIGHTS and SUMMARY:</u>\r\n<u>\r\n4.5.2: MARKET SENTIMENT:\r\n\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.5.3: USD: MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS with TRADING CHARTS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n4.5.4: CORE TRADES, ASSOCIATED NEWS and INSIGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.5.5: PREMIUM SERVICE – CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE SOAPBOX:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>\r\nTIPPING POINTS, STRUCTURAL RE-ALIGNMENTS, </strong><strong>MARKET STABILITY and DXY to 87.50?</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nThat\'s quite a lot to take in…\r\n\r\nIt seems like a life time ago, but it was in fact only July when I wrote back to back blogs about the TIPPING POINT and a market STRUCTURAL RE-ALIGNMENT.\r\n\r\nAs a macro, FUNDAMENTAL thinker / trader first I am usually either ahead of the market by varying degrees or sometimes just never there at all as my thought process may never play out the way that I had originally thought for one reason or a combination of reasons.\r\n\r\nRecently, trading or attempting to trade the USD to the long side has been like trying to roll a snowball up hill. Yes, there have been opportunities but they are few and far between. Just looking at the USD Index (DXY) chart below shows that basically since “THE DONALD’S” inauguration the DXY has been on a slide lower.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/DXY-10092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9979\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/DXY-10092017-1024x504.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"504\" /></a>\r\n\r\nThe simple fact is that the USD could slip below the current 91.00 level of support, break through the 90.00 psychological number and then maybe take a run at 87.50.\r\n\r\nThis potential move lower sits well with the administrations ideology of a weak USD and a low interest rate policy.\r\n\r\nThe potential moves ahead with the single currency should also fuel this decline in the USD as when the ECB announces its path to interest rate normalization the EUR should strengthen creating further USD weakness.\r\n\r\nThe backdrop to all this conjecture is that Central Banks around the globe all have maintaining MARKET STABILITY as a written or in some cases an unwritten rule.\r\n\r\nThere are so many factors influencing movements in price at the moment MARKET STABILITY appears to be somewhat lost, although to his credit Mario Draghi referenced it on a few occasions last Thursday in his ECB Press Conference. The truth is the markets could not give a rat’s hairy ass about STABILITY when FEAR and GREED are dominating the process, which they are for now.\r\n\r\nThe U.S. has two impending massive natural disasters on its plate, and the threat of war from North Korea. A President who is not trusted by his alleged party of allegiance and also but not surprisingly by the opposition party that are only interested in disruption rather than making the U.S. a better place to live and work, is a recipe for continued uncertainly and total instability. The U.S. is so dysfunctional and so far up its own arse it cannot see what it is doing to itself and it is fast becoming a laughing stock for onlookers around the globe.\r\n\r\nYet, with all this going on, the U.S. stock market is close to its highs. Quite staggering and incomprehensible to myself and possibly a few others.\r\n\r\nSo where am I going?\r\n\r\nLet me get there piece by piece….\r\n\r\nI have often said to new traders something along the lines of the following: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Trading currencies is essentially routine.</li>\r\n 	<li>Routine can be boring.</li>\r\n 	<li>There are classic market alignments and correlations.</li>\r\n 	<li>First thing in the morning when I go to my screens, I check the following charts, these are my LEAD INDICATORS: - DXY, GOLD, OIL, COPPER, S&amp;P, US10YEARNOTE, USD/CAD, USD/SEK, AUD/JPY and USD/JPY. This looks labour intensive and it can be but from my perspective essential background. It does not even allow for the reading material that I go through with coffee each morning.</li>\r\n 	<li>If my alignments and correlations whether they be inter-market or inter-currency are off, I have a RED FLAG.</li>\r\n 	<li>Having completed what I call my market research I look through trading charts, at the same time as checking open trades and limit orders to verify are they still tradeable entries or not?</li>\r\n 	<li>I watch/listen to BLOOMBERG in the background on my iPAD PRO, to listen out for geopolitical news and events that could influence my trading.</li>\r\n 	<li>All this take’s about an hour, but I have found over the past 10 years of trading it works for me. I trade for the long haul. There is a market 5 days a week. I can miss a day if I do NOT like the way the market looks or performs. Why put yourself at RISK? Is not one of a trader’s key goals and objective to MANAGE RISK?</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThis routine is all well and good karma. However, of late it in my opinion the market has become news driven rather than economically driven. This creates a dysfunctional market where correlations do matter but tend to be skewed… RED FLAG.\r\n\r\nCurrency relationships look awkward and no longer aligned to RISK … RED FLAG.\r\n\r\nAll the research in the world means feck all.\r\n\r\nWe are very quickly approaching the TIPPING POINT I referred to back in July. We are about to see the USD drop like a lead balloon and the EUR rip higher. Just the moves lower in the USD and higher in the EUR would cause a TIPPING POINT and a STRUCTURAL RE-ALIGNMENT in the FX market.\r\n\r\nNever mind what influences the Central Banks have, or believe that they have. Most of the Central Banks around the globe related to G7 countries have credibility issues with the markets. The BOE, BOJ, ECB and even the FED to some extent are classics in recent history. When the news is DOVISH / ACCOMODATIVE it’s easy to communicate. However, when turning HAWKISH as those listed have found to their detriment it is much more difficult to effectively communicate and maintain MARKET STABILITY.\r\n\r\nOnly the BOC under Stephen Poloz has delivered his promise quickly and smoothly. The BOC received so much bang for their buck out of two 0.25% rate increases. I realise it’s much easier for a small economy like Canada but it is still a G7 and G10 country.\r\n\r\nI would add the SNB under Thomas Jordan has also been relatively consistent and Philip Lowe having replaced Glenn Stevens at the RBA appears to be very clear and unambiguous with his commentary.\r\n\r\nBack on track…\r\n\r\nMoving to interest rate normalization around the globe will happen and the fact that U.S. is struggling for a multitude of reasons already mentioned means that at the end of this year we could have both the FED and ECB with major announcements at the same time…fluke or by design?\r\n\r\nI believe that the FED has a deal done with the ECB to raise rates in December when the ECB will announce more details about policy normalization. I think October for ECB is a “can kicking” exercise and that December will be the real deal.\r\n\r\nDecember looks primed to start the FX RE-ALIGNMENT but it will not be as volatile if both Central Banks (FED &amp; ECB) go together. December is a great month for releasing data for obvious reasons, holidays, end of year etc. and both Central Banks have back to back meetings.\r\n\r\n13th December – FOMC (FED)\r\n14th December – ECB – Press Conference in Frankfurt.\r\n\r\nThe G10 Central Bank leaders do talk to each other. I for one would NOT be surprised if a handshake over a glass of red has taken place over timings.\r\n\r\nGiven the desire and concerns over MARKET STABILITY do NOT rule out a coordinated policy announcement ahead of the dates of these meetings to announce change at the same time. It has been done before.\r\n\r\nIt could happen but maybe not.\r\n\r\nAt the end of the day what would the FX world look like?\r\n\r\nI still believe that no matter what is attempted, the USD is on very rocky ground. Fundamentally I cannot see Washington kissing and making up party to party or President to either party so dysfunctionality will remain in place.\r\n\r\nFair value for the single currency even with another 0.25% on the U.S. rate must still be in the 1.3000 range, but it is not about where fair value lies it’s how it gravitates to the level that is the important consideration.\r\n\r\nAt EUR/USD at 1.3000.\r\n\r\nEUR crosses would all be elevated from current levels and the majors would be elevated and re-aligned as well as a consequence.\r\n\r\nThat is when the real fun starts.\r\n\r\nHow will the RBA and RBNZ feel when their currencies are at 0.9000 and maybe 0.8000 levels once again? Competitiveness would suffer unless it was a balanced increase across the board.\r\n\r\nIt is possible that we enter currency wars 2.0?\r\n\r\nTIPPING POINTS, RE-ALIGNMENTS both have consequences and MARKET STABILITY may suffer despite a great deal of effort and planning being introduced. Then we have the DXY to 87.50. I hate using the words “Nailed on”, but I just see this happening. There is absolutely nothing that tells me to buy USD at the moment, apart from the fact its oversold and stretched.\r\n\r\nI just see 87.50 as inevitable moving forward.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #250 FREE NEWSLETTER VERSION\r\nSeptember 10th, 2017\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','TIPPING POINTS, STRUCTURAL RE-ALIGNMENTS, MARKET STABILITY and DXY to 87.50?','','inherit','closed','closed','','9997-revision-v1','','','2017-09-09 07:39:57','2017-09-09 12:39:57','',9997,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/9997-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(9999,1,'2017-09-09 07:41:05','2017-09-09 12:41:05','&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nA nice start back to full-time trading and this is my 250th WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU blog. Holy Feck…I never thought I’d still be alive never mind reach 250 posts!\r\n\r\nIt was a great first week back with +325 pips being banked. What is annoying is that I let over 150 pips or so fall through my fingers…argh!!\r\n\r\nLike every trader, you try your best to leave the woulda, coulda and shoulda’s behind. Hindsight is just a wonderful thing. Nevertheless, I think it was Bernard Baruch who said, “Nobody ever lost money taking a profit”; so with those words fresh in my mind, I will shut up.\r\n\r\nThe pips are starting to accumulate as I head towards my annual net 10,000 pips target. My house move, a month’s vacation to Australia and New Zealand plus my summer break are all in the rear-view mirror now. If you are considering joining the PREMIUM SERVICE no better time than the present.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>I am on my charge to reaching 10,000 pips before the year end. There are risks attached but I beat my 10,000 pips target in 2014, 2015 and 2016, no reason why I can’t do it again to make 4 years in a row (Check it all out on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the tab HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE).</li>\r\n 	<li>I have a great new subscriber promotion to the PREMIUM SERVICE offer available (Full details in Section 4 of this blog and on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the FX PROMOTIONS tab).</li>\r\n 	<li>My buddies at VANTAGE FX are ready for you if you don\'t have a great broker or you want to add a separate broker for PREMIUM SERVICE trades (Just click the link to VANTAGE FX on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> ).</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nGeopolitical themes still rule like an iron fist hovering over the markets. Kim Jong-Un has still not bent the knee, although “THE DONALD” has wound back his rhetoric thank God. Speaking last week after visiting the devastation caused by “HARVEY” he appears to have pushed China to act to give North Korea a good slapping.\r\n\r\nTwo visits into Texas, however, I am not sure we will see “THE DONALD” down in Florida for a while at least until after the winds of hurricane “IRMA” have died down and moved off to sea. Could you imagine the cost of the US Navy trying to locate his syrup somewhere in the Atlantic?\r\n\r\nJoking aside and not ignoring the tragic human costs of these storms, the financial cost coupled with basic turmoil within the TRUMP administration, the lack of relationship between the White House and Republicans and now deals being done between the White House and the Democrats feed a giant WTF in <strong>BOLD</strong> font size 144.\r\n\r\nDo we have a “FREELANCE” presidency in the U.S.?\r\n\r\nThink about it.\r\n\r\nThe Republicans in Washington have been in opposition for 8 years. They control both houses of legislature, yet they so in dispute with each other they cannot organize themselves to pass a single election promised piece of law. Republicans appear to be nothing more than self-serving career politicians that cannot unite on a single policy and they have control of both houses… they could really motor on.\r\n\r\nThe Democrats are not much better. Still whining on about losing the election to TRUMP. They have adopted a policy of non- agreement, zero partisanship. They have not sought out a leader to challenge at the next election. All they do is moan TRUMP this and TRUMP that. When the next election comes around they will have no one effective to stand because of their blinkered approach on disruption rather than being solution focused. I see this all-over Facebook and Twitter. Nothing has been learned since the Hillary Clinton elitist approach near the end of the 2016 campaign was poo-pooed by the unsullied.\r\n\r\nSo, TRUMP’S move to by-pass the Republican shambles and do a deal with the Democrats over linking the debt ceiling to the Hurricane costs was either a brilliant strategic manoeuvre and a clear demonstration of his will to get things done and by-pass the party machines, or, it was a nail in the coffin for all his election promises ever being fulfilled.\r\n\r\nWhat it has done in my opinion is solidify his base support. It shows a clear desire to get stuff done.\r\n\r\nWill this be the first of many such moves?\r\n\r\nThe American system encourages dysfunctionality and that it basically what we have seen since 9-11 in American politics. Watch this space.\r\n\r\nInteresting news…\r\n\r\nJanet Yellen’s deputy at the FED, Stanley Fischer is stepping down next month for personal reasons. If Yellen decides enough is enough and does not carry on next January, we could have a new look FED in place…. a TRUMP FED.\r\n\r\nMy thoughts are mixed for the markets, could this mean any year end hike is off based upon the fact the “old guard” would step aside and let the “New kids on the block” decide upon future policy? This point will no doubt be debated heavily in the coming weeks.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> LAST WEEK – MY TAKE ON SOME KEY EVENTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIn no particular order, here is what floated my boat last week.\r\n\r\n<u>EUR: ECB PRESS CONFERENCE. </u>\r\n\r\nMario Draghi, God love the poor fecker… He tried his best with a straight face to try and convince the markets that he could sell them a DOVISH MONETARY POLICY STANCE, whilst at the same time PURSUE A TIGHTER MONETARY POLICY… yup, good luck with that. The ECB Press Conference was billed as being a circus act and Barnum’s and Billy Smart’s would have been delighted as it ticked all the boxes.\r\n\r\nSo, what were the takeaways from Draghi?\r\n\r\nQE to run at €60B per month until December meeting or beyond if required.\r\nEconomic outlook broadly unchanged.\r\nExpansion solid. Broad-based.\r\nFX volatility is a source of uncertainty and requires monitoring.\r\nExpansion not yet translated in Inflation trend.\r\nInflation modest tick-up but still subdued.\r\nSubstantial accommodation still needed.\r\nReady to increase QE if outlook not favourable.\r\n2017 GDP now at 2.2% versus 1.9% seen in June.\r\n2018 GDP unchanged at 1.8%.\r\nHeadline inflation to dip into the year end 2017.\r\nUnderlying inflation to rise gradually over the medium-term.\r\nRecovery is base for confidence that inflation will gradually rise.\r\nRecovery remains dependent on Monetary policy.\r\nConsumption good because disposable income is rising.\r\nExchange Rate not a policy target\r\nWill have to take FX into account in future policy decisions.\r\n\r\nYada, yada, yada, blah, blah and bollocks ….. believe what you want from the above list of bullets I scribed from his speech and Q&amp;A session.\r\n\r\nMost of the above points are open to interpretation to be frank with you, and, it very much depends upon which side of the fence one sits.\r\n\r\nDraghi had a job to do, which was basically put off the markets until October when more data is available and the normalization including Tapering timetable will be discussed.  The ECB has an annoying and frustrating habit of “can kicking issues down the road”. Do NOT be surprised if in October we get 50% of the story and a delay to December.\r\n\r\nIn addition, and in true ECB style, on Friday last week the day after the “circus”, lesser known Governing Council member Philip Lane, Governor of the Irish Central Bank stated the following: - “The accommodative stance will remain until convincing evidence of inflation is seen”. This could be 2018 in full as the strengthening single currency is taking inflation out of the system. Draghi and governing council want the single currency on its arse. Let me re-iterate here lies the problem facing the ECB.\r\n\r\nMeanwhile back in the real world…\r\n\r\nI need to pick a level to enter long the EUR/USD in the coming days. Draghi said / did nothing to stop me thinking 1.3000 is on the way. My big question is how will he tackle zero inflation because the strengthening single currency will cancel out inflation inside the EUROZONE, well a great deal of it anyway.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>CAD: BOC RATE ANNOUNCEMENT and EMPLOYMENT DATA.</u>\r\n\r\nHoly Mother of God; I never thought that BOC Governor, Stephen Poloz had it in him. Two interest rate hikes back to back. The CAD interest rate now stands at 1.00%.\r\n\r\nThat took the market completely by surprise. The market is obsessed and focused on rate movement’s when there is a press conference.  The CAD was absolutely demolished by over 220 pips (USD/CAD), it bounced back across all pairs but frankly it looks doomed to a sub 1.2000 level soon.\r\n\r\nOut of the last rate increase the BOC got some $0.11 cents move lower in USD/CAD, even if they only achieve a $0.05 move this time the pair would fall to 1.1900. My goal and target is much less than this level.\r\n\r\nJust stepping sideways for a moment vis-à-vis the Canadian Jobs data. It was an overall beat, but the mix between Full and Part-time jobs was very disappointing and the USD/CAD initially weakened on the news. Basically, it remained unchanged. The 1.2000 level remains intact for now. It is however WHEN rather than IF, in my opinion, that this psychological round number will be crushed.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>GBP: BREXIT and MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION DATA.</u>\r\n\r\nBREXIT negotiations appear to be STILL moving along the lines of a west-end farce.\r\n\r\nI am NOT surprised, and neither should you be, we are watching career politicians at work. They only know how to attribute blame; they are simply NOT negotiators or problem solvers. This hangs over the UK like the “Sword of Damocles”.\r\n\r\nThe shambles continues; last week, Theresa May must have had a late-night party with her hangers on, and some numpty must have suggested writing to the FTSE Top 100 companies to ask them to get on board with Tory plans on BREXIT…. WTF. That goes down in the history books as another seemed like a good idea at the time moments. For God’s sake give me a break, even my Labrador Ozzy has more brains than that. Makes you think… doesn\'t it?\r\n\r\nThis letter comes on the back of a piece I read on BLOOMBERG about the UK negotiators perhaps looking for time to conclude the negotiations. What can I say here that even I could be happy with from a controlled language expletive perspective?\r\n\r\nWhat a f**king load of f**king bollocks, these tossers are paid a s**t load of people’s hard earned cash to do a f**king job. They have known the f**king timetable for f**king months. It’s about time they took their heads out of their arses, grew a pair, man up and get the job done to the best of their ability and let the population decide if they are a load of ineffective wan**rs or not when the f**king negotiations are finished.  The people voted over a year ago and f**k all has been done.\r\n\r\nOne Prozac later…\r\n\r\nThis past week or so UK economic data has been very mixed. Markets being markets, experts being experts and analyst’s being analyst’, they are all looking to be “Billy’s” and pick the bottom. If you pick bottoms all you get are smelly fingers. Manufacturing Production numbers came out last Friday morning, it was a beat at 0.5% versus market expectations of 0.3%. The Cable leaped up like a salmon on the good news and this move was exacerbated by continued USD weakness.\r\n\r\nHowever, as I wrote last week despite the bounce in the GBP/USD, which in my opinion is more about USD weakness than cable strength, I remain bearish cable longer-term and I stand by everything I have written in earlier blogs about timings and FX targets. I am still to this day astonished by the continual reference to “HARD or SOFT BREXIT”. For crying out loud; there is NO SOFT BREXIT. The EUROZONE cannot afford a SOFT BREXIT because it could potentially create a CONTAGION.\r\n\r\nI am STILL in the camp that there is a better than 50% probability that NO BREXIT deal will be achieved.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>3.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/ECON-DATA-10092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9970\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/ECON-DATA-10092017-1024x769.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"769\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3.2: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-10092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9971\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-10092017-1024x852.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"852\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3.3: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:</u>\r\n\r\nEconomic data releases this week are a bit thin on the ground but nevertheless I am sure that there will be plenty of fun for those who want to get involved.\r\n\r\nHere are my picks of the upcoming week.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>AUD:</u></strong>  Jobs data this week for the Australian Economy.  This has been a hit and miss number of late. Either a blowout or a bit weird number is produced. I am therefore on the fence here. We have seen big numbers posted for new jobs only to find that the mix of full and part time positions was skewed in favour of part-time.\r\n\r\nLast week on poor data the AUD/USD broke 0.8000 and then 0.8100. So why am I debating the response to good or bad data?\r\n\r\nBasically, the AUD looks a strong currency at the moment and a bigger upside break looks more on the cards than a move lower. This looks on the cards despite the RBA remaining neutral. I must only imagine RBA Governor Lowe is grateful he remained neutral, if he was HAWKISH I think we would be looking closer to 0.8500 at the moment given the way that the DXY has been behaving.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP:</u></strong>  CPi, Retail Sales, Average Earnings Index and the MPC vote with the interest rate announcement. I am in the minority, I know this, but I am still looking at the cable at 1.2000 at the end of 2017. It has spiked higher recently, however, I believe this is more of a move based from the weak USD (DXY) rather than UK economic supporting data.\r\n\r\nBREXIT is a shambolic affair. Theresa May is apparently delivering a major speech on September 21st to parliament on her timetable, negotiating timetable, successes and failures etc. This should be funnier than an episode of Frasier or The Big Bang Theory. The BREXIT successes should have me rolling about on the floor. That will be a short section of the speech if you are in anyway distracted for a second or two you may miss that bit.\r\n\r\nBack to the data dump…\r\n\r\nCPI and Retail Sales will be misses unless tourism boosts these numbers. Disposable incomes have been sharply eaten into with inflation.\r\n\r\nWages have shown signs of life of late but are still not keeping pace with inflation and I expect this to remain the case this Wednesday when the latest numbers are released. This is placing pressure on household disposable income.\r\n\r\nI have heard many rather glib comments from mainly non-UK bodies saying that with UK inflation above the 2% target a 0.25% rate hike won’t make too much of a difference. I hear and I read the comments and my immediate well thought out response is bollocks.\r\n\r\nRate hikes would be passed on at almost double the 0.25% hike onto credit cards, credit lines and overdrafts without any thought by the high-street banks. Much of the already disappearing household disposable income caused by inflation that remains will just be annihilated by an interest rate increase. In my opinion, this would be one of the biggest f**k ups ever by a Central Bank. I just don\'t see it.\r\n\r\nSo, I see Mark Carney, BOE Governor fumbling his way through a no change statement remaining vigilant and accommodative well into 2018.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD:</u></strong> We enter another week in the life of a TRUMP administration. Dysfunctional Washington persists and frankly looking at the US data I am becoming less and less interested as reactions are short lived as the USD is more responsive to twitter and headline news than economic data.\r\n\r\nWe have key inflation data this week. PPi, CPi and view of the consumer via Retail Sales. I would normally say these are crucial numbers for the FED to dissect vis-à-vis Monetary Policy normalization.\r\n\r\nMy thoughts, being a cynical fecker is that the ECB and FED have done a deal to both move in December. The FED will raise again regardless and this will help the ECB from rip roaring to 1.3000 in a few weeks.\r\n\r\nWe have been given a curveball by the FED telling us that they are looking more at its Balance Sheet reduction as a priority over interest rate normalization.\r\n\r\nBack to the data…\r\n\r\nAs long as, PPi and CPi are positive, I believe the markets will be happy enough. Retail Sales will have to match the last print at 0.6% as a minimum in my opinion. Anything less than these bare minimums will send the DXY crashing.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>4.1: PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber based Forex support service offering my suggested trade set-ups and market commentary.\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nMONTH TO DATE:  +325 net pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE:      +6,656 net pips\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs on my website  <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n<u>4.2: NEW SUBSCRIPTION OPTIONS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/SUBSCRIPTION-CHANGES-FALL2017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9907\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/SUBSCRIPTION-CHANGES-FALL2017-799x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"799\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u>4.3: CURRENT SUBSCRIPTION PROMOTION:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/FALL2017-PROMOTION.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9908\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/FALL2017-PROMOTION-788x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"788\" height=\"1024\" /></a><u>\r\n</u><u>\r\n4.4: WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you would like to be in the monthly draw to win a “FREE 30 DAY SUBSCRIPTION” to the PREMIUM SERVICE, valued at CAD$150.00, all you should do is subscribe to receive this FREE NEWSLETTER on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nThis can be done as follows: -\r\n\r\nOn my welcome page just below my cube logo is where you complete your subscription.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>4.5: PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:</u><u>\r\n</u>(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this content of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4.5.1: TRADING REVIEW, INSIGHTS and SUMMARY:</u>\r\n<u>\r\n4.5.2: MARKET SENTIMENT:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.5.3: USD: MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS with TRADING CHARTS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n4.5.4: CORE TRADES, ASSOCIATED NEWS and INSIGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.5.5: PREMIUM SERVICE – CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE SOAPBOX:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>\r\nTIPPING POINTS, STRUCTURAL RE-ALIGNMENTS, </strong><strong>MARKET STABILITY and DXY to 87.50?</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nThat\'s quite a lot to take in…\r\n\r\nIt seems like a life time ago, but it was in fact only July when I wrote back to back blogs about the TIPPING POINT and a market STRUCTURAL RE-ALIGNMENT.\r\n\r\nAs a macro, FUNDAMENTAL thinker / trader first I am usually either ahead of the market by varying degrees or sometimes just never there at all as my thought process may never play out the way that I had originally thought for one reason or a combination of reasons.\r\n\r\nRecently, trading or attempting to trade the USD to the long side has been like trying to roll a snowball up hill. Yes, there have been opportunities but they are few and far between. Just looking at the USD Index (DXY) chart below shows that basically since “THE DONALD’S” inauguration the DXY has been on a slide lower.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/DXY-10092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9979\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/DXY-10092017-1024x504.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"504\" /></a>\r\n\r\nThe simple fact is that the USD could slip below the current 91.00 level of support, break through the 90.00 psychological number and then maybe take a run at 87.50.\r\n\r\nThis potential move lower sits well with the administrations ideology of a weak USD and a low interest rate policy.\r\n\r\nThe potential moves ahead with the single currency should also fuel this decline in the USD as when the ECB announces its path to interest rate normalization the EUR should strengthen creating further USD weakness.\r\n\r\nThe backdrop to all this conjecture is that Central Banks around the globe all have maintaining MARKET STABILITY as a written or in some cases an unwritten rule.\r\n\r\nThere are so many factors influencing movements in price at the moment MARKET STABILITY appears to be somewhat lost, although to his credit Mario Draghi referenced it on a few occasions last Thursday in his ECB Press Conference. The truth is the markets could not give a rat’s hairy ass about STABILITY when FEAR and GREED are dominating the process, which they are for now.\r\n\r\nThe U.S. has two impending massive natural disasters on its plate, and the threat of war from North Korea. A President who is not trusted by his alleged party of allegiance and also but not surprisingly by the opposition party that are only interested in disruption rather than making the U.S. a better place to live and work, is a recipe for continued uncertainly and total instability. The U.S. is so dysfunctional and so far up its own arse it cannot see what it is doing to itself and it is fast becoming a laughing stock for onlookers around the globe.\r\n\r\nYet, with all this going on, the U.S. stock market is close to its highs. Quite staggering and incomprehensible to myself and possibly a few others.\r\n\r\nSo where am I going?\r\n\r\nLet me get there piece by piece….\r\n\r\nI have often said to new traders something along the lines of the following: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Trading currencies is essentially routine.</li>\r\n 	<li>Routine can be boring.</li>\r\n 	<li>There are classic market alignments and correlations.</li>\r\n 	<li>First thing in the morning when I go to my screens, I check the following charts, these are my LEAD INDICATORS: - DXY, GOLD, OIL, COPPER, S&amp;P, US10YEARNOTE, USD/CAD, USD/SEK, AUD/JPY and USD/JPY. This looks labour intensive and it can be but from my perspective essential background. It does not even allow for the reading material that I go through with coffee each morning.</li>\r\n 	<li>If my alignments and correlations whether they be inter-market or inter-currency are off, I have a RED FLAG.</li>\r\n 	<li>Having completed what I call my market research I look through trading charts, at the same time as checking open trades and limit orders to verify are they still tradeable entries or not?</li>\r\n 	<li>I watch/listen to BLOOMBERG in the background on my iPAD PRO, to listen out for geopolitical news and events that could influence my trading.</li>\r\n 	<li>All this take’s about an hour, but I have found over the past 10 years of trading it works for me. I trade for the long haul. There is a market 5 days a week. I can miss a day if I do NOT like the way the market looks or performs. Why put yourself at RISK? Is not one of a trader’s key goals and objective to MANAGE RISK?</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThis routine is all well and good karma. However, of late it in my opinion the market has become news driven rather than economically driven. This creates a dysfunctional market where correlations do matter but tend to be skewed… RED FLAG.\r\n\r\nCurrency relationships look awkward and no longer aligned to RISK … RED FLAG.\r\n\r\nAll the research in the world means feck all.\r\n\r\nWe are very quickly approaching the TIPPING POINT I referred to back in July. We are about to see the USD drop like a lead balloon and the EUR rip higher. Just the moves lower in the USD and higher in the EUR would cause a TIPPING POINT and a STRUCTURAL RE-ALIGNMENT in the FX market.\r\n\r\nNever mind what influences the Central Banks have, or believe that they have. Most of the Central Banks around the globe related to G7 countries have credibility issues with the markets. The BOE, BOJ, ECB and even the FED to some extent are classics in recent history. When the news is DOVISH / ACCOMODATIVE it’s easy to communicate. However, when turning HAWKISH as those listed have found to their detriment it is much more difficult to effectively communicate and maintain MARKET STABILITY.\r\n\r\nOnly the BOC under Stephen Poloz has delivered his promise quickly and smoothly. The BOC received so much bang for their buck out of two 0.25% rate increases. I realise it’s much easier for a small economy like Canada but it is still a G7 and G10 country.\r\n\r\nI would add the SNB under Thomas Jordan has also been relatively consistent and Philip Lowe having replaced Glenn Stevens at the RBA appears to be very clear and unambiguous with his commentary.\r\n\r\nBack on track…\r\n\r\nMoving to interest rate normalization around the globe will happen and the fact that U.S. is struggling for a multitude of reasons already mentioned means that at the end of this year we could have both the FED and ECB with major announcements at the same time…fluke or by design?\r\n\r\nI believe that the FED has a deal done with the ECB to raise rates in December when the ECB will announce more details about policy normalization. I think October for ECB is a “can kicking” exercise and that December will be the real deal.\r\n\r\nDecember looks primed to start the FX RE-ALIGNMENT but it will not be as volatile if both Central Banks (FED &amp; ECB) go together. December is a great month for releasing data for obvious reasons, holidays, end of year etc. and both Central Banks have back to back meetings.\r\n\r\n13th December – FOMC (FED)\r\n14th December – ECB – Press Conference in Frankfurt.\r\n\r\nThe G10 Central Bank leaders do talk to each other. I for one would NOT be surprised if a handshake over a glass of red has taken place over timings.\r\n\r\nGiven the desire and concerns over MARKET STABILITY do NOT rule out a coordinated policy announcement ahead of the dates of these meetings to announce change at the same time. It has been done before.\r\n\r\nIt could happen but maybe not.\r\n\r\nAt the end of the day what would the FX world look like?\r\n\r\nI still believe that no matter what is attempted, the USD is on very rocky ground. Fundamentally I cannot see Washington kissing and making up party to party or President to either party so dysfunctionality will remain in place.\r\n\r\nFair value for the single currency even with another 0.25% on the U.S. rate must still be in the 1.3000 range, but it is not about where fair value lies it’s how it gravitates to the level that is the important consideration.\r\n\r\nAt EUR/USD at 1.3000.\r\n\r\nEUR crosses would all be elevated from current levels and the majors would be elevated and re-aligned as well as a consequence.\r\n\r\nThat is when the real fun starts.\r\n\r\nHow will the RBA and RBNZ feel when their currencies are at 0.9000 and maybe 0.8000 levels once again? Competitiveness would suffer unless it was a balanced increase across the board.\r\n\r\nIt is possible that we enter currency wars 2.0?\r\n\r\nTIPPING POINTS, RE-ALIGNMENTS both have consequences and MARKET STABILITY may suffer despite a great deal of effort and planning being introduced. Then we have the DXY to 87.50. I hate using the words “Nailed on”, but I just see this happening. There is absolutely nothing that tells me to buy USD at the moment, apart from the fact its oversold and stretched.\r\n\r\nI just see 87.50 as inevitable moving forward.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #250 FREE NEWSLETTER VERSION\r\nSeptember 10th, 2017\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','TIPPING POINTS, STRUCTURAL RE-ALIGNMENTS, MARKET STABILITY and DXY to 87.50?','','inherit','closed','closed','','9997-revision-v1','','','2017-09-09 07:41:05','2017-09-09 12:41:05','',9997,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/9997-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(10034,1,'2017-09-16 06:14:57','2017-09-16 11:14:57','<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSo, last week may have been my 250th WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU but from my registered subscribers list only 80 of them received the blog direct to their inbox. In fact I discovered that since returning from a short summer vacation from blogging, only the first 80 registered subscribers have been receiving the blog.\r\n\r\nThe reason…\r\n\r\nI switched website hosts from BLUEHOST (who could not maintain my https status due to their system errors) to SITEGROUND who despite a verbal run through of my requirements, have subsequently advised me that only 80 emails can be sent and plug-ins will not work inside my WORDPRESS account to send emails in batches. I thought that things were quiet, I put it down to the time of the year NOT my new hosting partners.\r\n\r\nYou will NOT be surprised to hear that I have been told the email distribution issue is all my fault… the rules are written down somewhere on the SITEGROUND website and my verbal conversation counts for feck all.\r\n\r\nAs a result, and which additionally may provide a better solution, albeit a little timelier from my perspective, I am now using my CONSTANT CONTACT account for 100% of my FREE NEWSLETTER administration and distribution.\r\n\r\nSuffice to say, this discovery and finding a solution to the problem, has been a bit of a distraction from a trading perspective.\r\n\r\nTwo weeks ago, I launched revised subscription options and subscriber PROMOTION at the same time. Part of the launch was to open up for a week the full PREMIUM SERVICE version of the blog to my FREE NEWSLETTER subscribers. On the basis that only 80 would have had the opportunity to see the complete version, I have decided to repeat the process with this week’s “DRIVE THRU’ blog.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nOver the past week or so, I have been preparing for and I am now almost ready to launch a replacement video about trading with me through THE PREMIUM SERVICE. I just need to put two or three hours to one side to get it done and edited. I know this sounds totally stupid but getting the time is a killer and I consider myself brilliant at TIME MANAGEMENT.\r\n\r\nIn addition…\r\n\r\nI mentioned just before the summer break that I was working on some algorithms for trading. I am still not sure how I get these into the PREMIUM SERVICE but these are now ready for further refinement. Again, I just need a couple of hours with my partners on this and then will hopefully be a quick “GREEN FOR GO”.\r\n\r\nBack to trading …\r\n\r\nI have had one of those weeks; distraction and the nagging of hindsight!\r\n\r\nLike every trader, you try your best to leave the woulda, coulda and shoulda’s behind. Hindsight is just a wonderful thing. Nevertheless, I think it was Bernard Baruch who said, “Nobody ever lost money taking a profit”; so with those words fresh in my mind, I will shut up.\r\n\r\nThe pips are starting to accumulate as I head towards my annual net 10,000 pips target. My house move, a month’s vacation to Australia and New Zealand plus my summer break are all in the rear-view mirror now. If you are considering joining the PREMIUM SERVICE no better time than the present.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>I am on my charge to reaching 10,000 pips before the year end. There are risks attached but I beat my 10,000 pips target in 2014, 2015 and 2016, no reason why I can’t do it again to make 4 years in a row (Check it all out on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the tab HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE).</li>\r\n 	<li>I have a great new subscriber promotion to the PREMIUM SERVICE offer available (Full details in Section 4 of this blog and on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the FX PROMOTIONS tab).</li>\r\n 	<li>My buddies at VANTAGE FX are ready for you if you don\'t have a great broker or you want to add a separate broker for PREMIUM SERVICE trades (Just click the link to VANTAGE FX on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> ).</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nFinally, in this section and I should initially mention it here…\r\n\r\nYou will see from the title of this week’s blog; I have had as far as many of you are probably concerned “A Hallelujah Moment”. I will go into my reasons for my 360-degree turnabout in “THE SOAPBOX” later in the blog in section 5.\r\n\r\nFor those regular followers; I think I had a “nose-bleed” moment when I decided I was going long the cable. It still does not feel quite right having been bearish for 15 months.\r\n\r\nOn the Thursday evening after the BOE Super Thursday, I wrote to PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers telling them that I was now going to change sides and because we are entering the weekend and the fact that North Korea had just launched another missile test, I would look for long GBP trades over the weekend’s charts and start posting trades early this week.\r\n\r\nWTF, as quoted by one of my long-time subscribers “Yer man Gertjan Vlieghe a BOE MPC member somehow read your tweet and decided this was enough to send the cable higher without you”. Very funny. Cable soared through 1.3600 over 220 pips range on the day without the US session. I was asleep through the plough higher from the 1.3400 break out level.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> LAST WEEK – MY TAKE ON SOME KEY EVENTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIn no particular order, here is what floated my boat last week.\r\n\r\n<u>GBP: UK AVERAGE EARNINGS INDEX &amp; “SUPER THURSDAY”. </u>\r\n\r\nI will be going through these headlines later in Section 5 - “THE SOAPBOX” section of the blog.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>USD: INFLATION DATA.</u>\r\n\r\nPPi – dreadful and the USD rallied.\r\n\r\nCore CPI and CPi - Core CPi came in line with expectations and regular CPi was a beat. The USD rallied, sold off, rallied, sold off, rallied and basically it chopped its way throughout Thursday. It was probably not helped by a possible North Korean missile launch news wire.\r\n\r\nCore Retail Sales and Retail Sales – Poor data. Retail Sales was -0.2% against a positive 0.1% and Core Retail Sales 0.2% against 0.5% expectations.\r\n\r\nZero inflation is evident in the Us markets. Demand through Retail Sales has taken a nosedive. It all looks a difficult time for Janet Yellen this week. What has the FED policy done vis-à-vis getting the US economy back on track?\r\n\r\nHere’s a thought…\r\n\r\nAt the FED Press Conference this week. Announce that the poor recent data was due to the weather and that it’s simply transitory as the underlying data supports the current FED policy!\r\n\r\nMy thoughts are US data is much the same as always. If we see good data all I read is FED TO RAISE RATES IN DECEMBER or if we see poor data FED NOT GOING TO RAISE. This is all I see now. I think I have grown so accustomed to this bollocks I do not really read it anymore and I skim the document.\r\n\r\nI think that as traders, we should just react to whatever Janet Yellen says. Everything else is just noise from people who know about as much about what is on the minds of the FOMC as Ozzy my boy Labrador about the FED’S intentions.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>3.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/ECON-DATA-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10007\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/ECON-DATA-17092017-1024x761.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"761\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3.2: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10008\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-17092017-1024x852.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"852\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3.3: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:</u>\r\n\r\nThe FOMC is the standout this week. However, there are couple of other bits and pieces that have caught my eye.\r\n\r\nHere are my picks of the upcoming week.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD:</u></strong>  Janet Yellen is back on the stage again. Everything about this Press Conference and Rate Statement is only going to be about two subjects: -\r\n\r\nFirstly, when is the FED going to raise rates again. Before the end of 2017 or spill it over into 2018?\r\n\r\nSecondly, will she provide updates about the FED reducing the size of its balance sheet. By how much and when will they start.\r\n\r\nFrankly, I do not think that the rest matters. She will drone on giving us waffle for a good 15-20 minutes, but at the end of the day, in my opinion its only about the above two points. You will see and hear media account executives asking the same questions 50 different ways to let their managers know that they turned up and weren’t “bunking off”, but at the end of the day it could be all over in a “Wham Bam Thank You Mam” 10 minutes maximum and everyone could be down to the pub after 20 minutes writing their pieces.\r\n\r\nThe drama unfolds at 2PM EST and the Press Conference at 2:30PM EST on Wednesday.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP</u>: </strong>On the back off the HAWKISH BOE last week we have Retail Sales this Tuesday. I can see it now on twitter. BOE to definitely hike in November as Retail Sales beat, or, BOE rate hike this year in question as UK Retails sales miss.\r\n\r\nFor Carney to do a complete u turn is not unheard of.\r\n\r\nIf ever you go to lunch with him, beware if you only have one hour for allocated, as he is so indecisive about his choices, you may end up eating nothing or eating alone. Allegedly, Carney cannot make up his mind what to eat and when he does he keeps changing his mind.\r\n\r\nIt is so bad that in local restaurants, close to the Threadneedle Street area of London that are known to accommodate BOE employees they have alternative Mark Carney menus. They include a clause “Mr. Carney, once you have decided upon your choice of food from our menu you cannot change your mind. Regretfully forward guidance is believed and 100% adopted by our chefs. The direction you have chosen is final”\r\n\r\nDo not be surprised if Carney has you brain in a fecking twist up to the end of this year. He is the master of changing one’s mind. If it were an Olympic sport he would win the GOLD MEDAL.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>CAD</u></strong>: I am a buyer of CAD$ and I am adding to positions, taking profits here and there as the markets chop back and forth. This week we have CPI and Core Retail Sales, this inflation data will be key for the BOC vis-a-vis another interest rate hike before the end of 2017.\r\n\r\nThe economic data from Canada recently has been really good just the odd bit of mixed data, like the Employment numbers when the mix between Full and Part Time jobs was skewed.\r\n\r\nIf this week’s data does NOT rule out another BOC rate hike, I will be adding more positions to my CORE CAD position.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>NZD</u></strong>:  It is the New Zealand 2017 General Election this Friday. I am generally bearish the Kiwi; however, I believe it would be sound to wind back trades ahead of the result. I have already started this with PREMIUM SERVICE trades and I will continue this process through the week.\r\n\r\nI would imagine the start of trading next weekend will be the time for volatility on a grand scale if we are going to see big moves.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong><strong> </strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>4.1: PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber based Forex support service offering my suggested trade set-ups and market commentary.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nMONTH TO DATE:  +406 net pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE:      +7,062 net pips\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs on my website  <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n<u>4.2: CURRENT SUBSCRIPTION PROMOTION:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/FALL2017-PROMOTION.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9908\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/FALL2017-PROMOTION-788x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"788\" height=\"1024\" /></a><u>\r\n</u><u>\r\n4.3: WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nIf you would like to be in the monthly draw to win a “FREE 30 DAY SUBSCRIPTION” to the PREMIUM SERVICE, valued at CAD$150.00, all you should do is subscribe to receive this FREE NEWSLETTER on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nThis can be done as follows: -\r\n\r\nOn my welcome page just below my cube logo is where you complete your subscription.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>4.4: PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:</u><u>\r\n</u>(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.1: TRADING REVIEW, INSIGHTS and SUMMARY:</u>\r\n\r\nWhat a week last week was.\r\n\r\nI was distracted on several occasions with having to be away to take care of my Jeep’s service but more importantly issues with my new webhost regarding bulk email delivery. The only effective workaround is not to use my WordPress connection through my website but to use my database via constant contact.\r\n\r\nFrom a trading perspective, I have changed views with the cable. I have gone into some detail in “THE SOAPBOX”.\r\n\r\nI tweeted last week after the BOE Super Thursday that I would look for GBP trades into this week, as we were into Friday trading session but especially with the missile launches out of North Korea it made sense to wait. I did not, and frankly no-one could have predicted the comments from Gertjan Vlieghe BOE MPC member. He basically sent his own missile under the GBP. His comments are in a different tone from Carney and we should not get too carried away but that detail would not stop the market reaction. It has been an absolute stellar move across the board.\r\n\r\nI added a good total of net +406 pips in the past seven days which is great but it was a difficult choppy week. Ranges are tightening again (GBP pairs excepted). This is what happens when we are about to have a market SHIFT.\r\n\r\nMarket correlations are just not sitting properly. One day they are trusted the next morning when I check charts the previous alignment has drifted apart. The geopolitical tensions have a great deal to do with this as this directly affects safe havens such as GOLD, plus the JPY and CHF currencies. I must mention though after the missile launch last Thursday, my reaction was complete caution, the market was to shrug it off within a couple of hours. Something is going to give with this and it will be ugly when it happens.\r\n\r\nThe geopolitical events when added to the changes taking place with Central Bank policy throughout the world is also fueling the uncertainties, correlation issues and non-alignments across markets. Central bank uncertainties on future policy timing (FED and ECB), the dovish approach in general changing into a hawkish policy approach (BOC and BOE) and uncertainties in delay by trying to maintain a neutral policy stance over a more hawkish stance (RBA and RBNZ).\r\n\r\nAdd all these factors together and its quite a mixing bowl of ingredients. I am just not convinced on everything FX at the moment, I am fearing the worse. I know that I am slow and steady at this but so much complacency to me is just mental.\r\n\r\nBack to trading…\r\n\r\nLooking forward with trades, I will continue to press forward building a CORE CAD POSITION. Obviously short term NZD/CAD due to election will be restricted, CAD/CHF and CAD/JPY I will watch more closely than before vis-a-via flight to safety. In addition, given the situation with cable I think that GBP/CAD could be tougher unless we see a USD/CAD fall into the 1.1800’s.\r\n\r\nThe CORE NZD position will have to take back seat until the election is over. Friday last week my AUD/NZD took a beating, but as you know for the last 2 years I have been basically long this pair, it is have given some great returns and I will stick with it. My total position size a sizeable broker account is only 40% of a full-sized position. I could ride this pair substantially lower beyond its monthly ATR on STOP LOSS levels, if required, and still not exceed my risk parameters.\r\n\r\nI need to see the election outcome and reaction before committing more trades. My plan this week it to exit NZD related trades ahead of the vote.\r\n\r\nWith regards to the single currency, I am looking to build a CORE LONG POSITION with the EUR. As you know I have started with EUR/USD, to which I will add more set ups and I need to look at the cross rates this week and add. I have a EUR/CAD short that I entered on a SELL STOP below previous good support. It has given me a nasty rebound spike higher. I extended the STOP to stick with this pair as will follow USD/CAD moves. Annoyingly at the moment the USD/CAD is consolidation before resuming its move lower with the trend. Bounces have been minimal so far.\r\n\r\nI have made many references to cable. I will be posting several pullback entries from the get go this week.\r\n\r\nThere will be quite a bit of LIMIT ORDER activity in the early part of the week.\r\n\r\nWe have the FOMC this week as you are aware, it is the draw of the news events. As you have seen, I have adjusted my entry tactics more of late to using momentum as a means of trade entry by using BUY STOPS and SELL STOP orders. These are NOT my preferred means of entering trades but they are working more times than not. I will continue with these for the time being, they should be of use around the FOMC.\r\n\r\nWhilst I am very positive on my trading to obtain results at the moment I do have market concerns as you know and I have raised them again in the blog. I will try tot to get SPOOKED but we ready for mass exits of trades should the ARMAGEDDON situation arise.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.4.2: MARKET SENTIMENT:\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/SENTIMENT-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10009\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/SENTIMENT-17092017-688x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"688\" height=\"1024\" /></a></u><u></u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.3: USD: MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS with TRADING CHARTS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10008\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-17092017-1024x852.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"852\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n\r\nPlease note that now that these charts are PREMIUM SERVICE subscriber only, I am now able to have them focused to existing trades and limit orders as well as future intentions.\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>EUR/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/EURUSD-D-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10019\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/EURUSD-D-17092017-1024x511.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"511\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/GBPUSD-W-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10020\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/GBPUSD-W-17092017-1024x511.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"511\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/AUDUSD-D-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10018\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/AUDUSD-D-17092017-1024x511.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"511\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/NZDUSD-D-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10021\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/NZDUSD-D-17092017-1024x511.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"511\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCAD-D-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10022\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCAD-D-17092017-1024x511.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"511\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCHF-D-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10023\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCHF-D-17092017-1024x511.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"511\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDJPY-D-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10024\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDJPY-D-17092017-1024x511.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"511\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.4.4: EXISTING &amp; POTENTIAL CORE TRADES:\r\n\r\nBasically, I am bearish the CAD and NZD and the two currencies are dominating my thoughts, trades and limit orders at the moment.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE CAD:</u></strong>\r\nCurrently, I am live the following: -\r\n\r\nCAD/CHF – long\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD and EUR/CAD – short\r\n\r\nPlus: - I have SELL STOP limit orders and standard limit orders in position for the USD/CAD.\r\n\r\nI am adding on pullbacks and getting prepared. I see the BOC raising once more this year as they take aim at the housing bubble and personal lending increase’s.\r\n\r\nI am still targeting much lower levels sub 1.2000 with the USD/CAD. This level if broken should drag all CAD pairs stronger.\r\n\r\nA Couple of weeks ago, ScotiaBank released its latest batch of currency targets and thoughts vis-à-vis the markets. It has another rate hike in the mix for Q4 2017 and two more in 2018. If they were all 0.25% rate increases, that would make a grand total rate of 1.75% by the end of 2018.\r\n\r\nIt is a brave call, but I can see it as well given the fundamentals.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: Is to add more USD/CAD trades this coming week and to continue to build a CORE SHORT POSITION that enables me to add to and take pips and $$$ from trades as the CAD strengthens.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE NZD</u></strong>:\r\n\r\nCurrently I have 4 x live long AUD/NZD trades and a NZD/CHF short trade.\r\n\r\nPlus: - One more long AUD/NZD limit order trade, a NZD/JPY short limit order and a EUR/NZD long limit order trades waiting in the wings.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: I am going to reduce NZD exposure this week given the fact that the New Zealand General Election takes place on Friday. I will then look at the market sentiment next week to review my future plan.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE EUR</u></strong>:\r\n\r\nEUR/USD: I have placed multiple LIMIT ORDERS based initially on my thoughts that we would see a larger pullback with the single currency from its break above 1.2000. this materialized only as far as 1.1840.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: I am going to look at adding more LIMIT ORDER set ups over the coming days. I still believe that the EUR/USD is going back towards 1.3000. The rhetoric out of the ECB has been calming, but it is questionable that the market is believing anything that comes out of Frankfurt at the moment.\r\n\r\nI will also look at some EUR crosses once again.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE GBP:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nNothing is in position yet. I believe that there will be some excellent pullback opportunities to enter GBP related trades across the board and I will be looking for these opportunities this week. The only pairs that I am uncertain about are GBP/CAD and GBP/CHF. However, all other crosses should have great potential.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE SOAPBOX:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>\r\nCARNEY COMES OUT OF THE CLOSET\r\n</strong><strong>(BOE NOW HAWKISH)</strong></p>\r\nOn BOE “Super Thursday” last week interest rates remained on hold but the HAWKISH tone of the Monetary Policy Statement sent the cable on a tear.  Later in the day Mark Carney (BOE Governor) was on the wires fueling the statement content further by openly stating that the next move higher in cable would be upwards and sooner than expected.\r\n\r\nHaving moved about 150 pips on the statement release, Carney’s added comments only placed about another 40 pips on top. It was the comments the following morning (Friday) by BOE MPC member Gertjan Vlieghe, who came out and stated that the increase would be soon and more than a one and done which Carney had intimated the prior day. These comments sent the GBP/USD above 1.3600.\r\n\r\nFrom 1.3150 to 1.3600 (450 pips) in basically 24 hours was what you call a substantial shift in sentiment and a stellar move.\r\n\r\nThe comments from Carney, that he has finally let go of the dovish sentiment and admitted a hike was required after months of denial has brought him out of the closet and the dove has now turned hawk.\r\n\r\nBy coincidence upon receipt of the comments from the BOE, but with no closet involved, I have also changed my GBP bias. I am no longer bearish cable in the short / medium term. I am bullish primarily because with cable above the 1.3450 - 1.3500 levels we are now in a bullish trend. The market is now focused on BOE interest rates rather than the political gaffs surrounding BREXIT.\r\n\r\nNow look…\r\n\r\nI still have massive BREXIT reservations and concerns. Theresa May’s government’s handling of the BREXIT negotiations appears poor and not planned. The Tories have a paper-thin majority in the House of Commons.\r\n\r\nHowever, even with this backdrop it looks like that even without a single BREXIT agreement reached and mass confusion reigning over the negotiations, UK households are going to have more cash pressures placed upon them.\r\n\r\nPersonally, I think that this rate increase should it happen is a recipe for disaster. Never trust accountants in deciding these matters. I have said it before, these pen pushing, desk sucking, jotter blotters do not get out much, they live, breathe and survive on historic data and do NOT take into consideration facts in the reality of the present day.\r\n\r\nYou can bet your bottom dollar that any rate increase will be 100% passed on the mortgages and credit card debt. Households that are currently feeling the effects of inflation are about to get a kick in the nuts as living costs are about to move higher. Look out for defaults on loans, mortgages etc. on the increase in the coming months and for “Vlieghe” to intimate multiple interest rate hikes was reckless as it could start something more than just defaults.\r\n\r\nI know some of you will think that the mere fact that the GBP/USD exchange rate is increasing that this is deflationary, and, I agree, but it is a year away at least to feel the deflationary effect. The debt default issues are bubbling under right now beneath the surface prior to adding more pressure through interest rate increases.\r\n\r\nIn addition, do not forget trade will be effected by rate increases. The balancing act is a difficult one to maintain but I am astonished that the pen pushers have gotten their way. Given all the uncertainties on the economy and with BREXIT I would have ran with higher inflation in Q2 2018.\r\n\r\nThere are still a couple of “not sures” emanating from the BOE statement and comments that followed.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Slow rate increases like the FED?</li>\r\n 	<li>Tapering through Balance Sheet reduction of the QE program when will this commence?</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThere is a BOE inflation report due in November, this looks like the date for the first rate hike. So, we do not have detail but the markets have basically already started to price in a 0.25% rate increase.\r\n\r\nWhilst I can see the move by the BOE and the sentiment change, I can also see the other side. This is a risky decision if they go ahead.\r\n\r\nStarting Monday I will be hunting down GBP long trades based off pullbacks through Fibonacci retracements. All GBP pairs are overbought, EUR/GBP oversold, but there will be some great trading opportunities in the near term to take advantage of.\r\n\r\nThe BOC obtained almost $0.13 cents on their move higher, if cable were to match this, it would be close to 1.4450.  Whilst I cannot see that given the money flows I can see a challenge of 1.3870 the 61.8% retracement from the pre Brexit June 2016 highs (1.5034) to the December 2106 lows (1.1994).\r\n\r\nWhat happens now if we have a catastrophic BREXIT announcement or a leadership battle in the Tory party or another election is called in the next couple of months?\r\n\r\nInteresting times ahead.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS:</strong><strong> </strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #251 FREE NEWSLETTER\r\nSeptember 17th, 2017\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','CARNEY COMES OUT OF THE CLOSET','','inherit','closed','closed','','10033-revision-v1','','','2017-09-16 06:14:57','2017-09-16 11:14:57','',10033,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/10033-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(10035,1,'2017-09-16 06:16:24','2017-09-16 11:16:24','<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSo, last week may have been my 250th WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU but from my registered subscribers list only 80 of them received the blog direct to their inbox. In fact I discovered that since returning from a short summer vacation from blogging, only the first 80 registered subscribers have been receiving the blog.\r\n\r\nThe reason…\r\n\r\nI switched website hosts from BLUEHOST (who could not maintain my https status due to their system errors) to SITEGROUND who despite a verbal run through of my requirements, have subsequently advised me that only 80 emails can be sent and plug-ins will not work inside my WORDPRESS account to send emails in batches. I thought that things were quiet, I put it down to the time of the year NOT my new hosting partners.\r\n\r\nYou will NOT be surprised to hear that I have been told the email distribution issue is all my fault… the rules are written down somewhere on the SITEGROUND website and my verbal conversation counts for feck all.\r\n\r\nAs a result, and which additionally may provide a better solution, albeit a little timelier from my perspective, I am now using my CONSTANT CONTACT account for 100% of my FREE NEWSLETTER administration and distribution.\r\n\r\nSuffice to say, this discovery and finding a solution to the problem, has been a bit of a distraction from a trading perspective.\r\n\r\nTwo weeks ago, I launched revised subscription options and subscriber PROMOTION at the same time. Part of the launch was to open up for a week the full PREMIUM SERVICE version of the blog to my FREE NEWSLETTER subscribers. On the basis that only 80 would have had the opportunity to see the complete version, I have decided to repeat the process with this week’s “DRIVE THRU’ blog.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nOver the past week or so, I have been preparing for and I am now almost ready to launch a replacement video about trading with me through THE PREMIUM SERVICE. I just need to put two or three hours to one side to get it done and edited. I know this sounds totally stupid but getting the time is a killer and I consider myself brilliant at TIME MANAGEMENT.\r\n\r\nIn addition…\r\n\r\nI mentioned just before the summer break that I was working on some algorithms for trading. I am still not sure how I get these into the PREMIUM SERVICE but these are now ready for further refinement. Again, I just need a couple of hours with my partners on this and then will hopefully be a quick “GREEN FOR GO”.\r\n\r\nBack to trading …\r\n\r\nI have had one of those weeks; distraction and the nagging of hindsight!\r\n\r\nLike every trader, you try your best to leave the woulda, coulda and shoulda’s behind. Hindsight is just a wonderful thing. Nevertheless, I think it was Bernard Baruch who said, “Nobody ever lost money taking a profit”; so with those words fresh in my mind, I will shut up.\r\n\r\nThe pips are starting to accumulate as I head towards my annual net 10,000 pips target. My house move, a month’s vacation to Australia and New Zealand plus my summer break are all in the rear-view mirror now. If you are considering joining the PREMIUM SERVICE no better time than the present.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>I am on my charge to reaching 10,000 pips before the year end. There are risks attached but I beat my 10,000 pips target in 2014, 2015 and 2016, no reason why I can’t do it again to make 4 years in a row (Check it all out on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the tab HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE).</li>\r\n 	<li>I have a great new subscriber promotion to the PREMIUM SERVICE offer available (Full details in Section 4 of this blog and on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the FX PROMOTIONS tab).</li>\r\n 	<li>My buddies at VANTAGE FX are ready for you if you don\'t have a great broker or you want to add a separate broker for PREMIUM SERVICE trades (Just click the link to VANTAGE FX on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> ).</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nFinally, in this section and I should initially mention it here…\r\n\r\nYou will see from the title of this week’s blog; I have had as far as many of you are probably concerned “A Hallelujah Moment”. I will go into my reasons for my 360-degree turnabout in “THE SOAPBOX” later in the blog in section 5.\r\n\r\nFor those regular followers; I think I had a “nose-bleed” moment when I decided I was going long the cable. It still does not feel quite right having been bearish for 15 months.\r\n\r\nOn the Thursday evening after the BOE Super Thursday, I wrote to PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers telling them that I was now going to change sides and because we are entering the weekend and the fact that North Korea had just launched another missile test, I would look for long GBP trades over the weekend’s charts and start posting trades early this week.\r\n\r\nWTF, as quoted by one of my long-time subscribers “Yer man Gertjan Vlieghe a BOE MPC member somehow read your tweet and decided this was enough to send the cable higher without you”. Very funny. Cable soared through 1.3600 over 220 pips range on the day without the US session. I was asleep through the plough higher from the 1.3400 break out level.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> LAST WEEK – MY TAKE ON SOME KEY EVENTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIn no particular order, here is what floated my boat last week.\r\n\r\n<u>GBP: UK AVERAGE EARNINGS INDEX &amp; “SUPER THURSDAY”. </u>\r\n\r\nI will be going through these headlines later in Section 5 - “THE SOAPBOX” section of the blog.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>USD: INFLATION DATA.</u>\r\n\r\nPPi – dreadful and the USD rallied.\r\n\r\nCore CPI and CPi - Core CPi came in line with expectations and regular CPi was a beat. The USD rallied, sold off, rallied, sold off, rallied and basically it chopped its way throughout Thursday. It was probably not helped by a possible North Korean missile launch news wire.\r\n\r\nCore Retail Sales and Retail Sales – Poor data. Retail Sales was -0.2% against a positive 0.1% and Core Retail Sales 0.2% against 0.5% expectations.\r\n\r\nZero inflation is evident in the Us markets. Demand through Retail Sales has taken a nosedive. It all looks a difficult time for Janet Yellen this week. What has the FED policy done vis-à-vis getting the US economy back on track?\r\n\r\nHere’s a thought…\r\n\r\nAt the FED Press Conference this week. Announce that the poor recent data was due to the weather and that it’s simply transitory as the underlying data supports the current FED policy!\r\n\r\nMy thoughts are US data is much the same as always. If we see good data all I read is FED TO RAISE RATES IN DECEMBER or if we see poor data FED NOT GOING TO RAISE. This is all I see now. I think I have grown so accustomed to this bollocks I do not really read it anymore and I skim the document.\r\n\r\nI think that as traders, we should just react to whatever Janet Yellen says. Everything else is just noise from people who know about as much about what is on the minds of the FOMC as Ozzy my boy Labrador about the FED’S intentions.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>3.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/ECON-DATA-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10007\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/ECON-DATA-17092017-1024x761.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"761\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3.2: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10008\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-17092017-1024x852.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"852\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3.3: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:</u>\r\n\r\nThe FOMC is the standout this week. However, there are couple of other bits and pieces that have caught my eye.\r\n\r\nHere are my picks of the upcoming week.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD:</u></strong>  Janet Yellen is back on the stage again. Everything about this Press Conference and Rate Statement is only going to be about two subjects: -\r\n\r\nFirstly, when is the FED going to raise rates again. Before the end of 2017 or spill it over into 2018?\r\n\r\nSecondly, will she provide updates about the FED reducing the size of its balance sheet. By how much and when will they start.\r\n\r\nFrankly, I do not think that the rest matters. She will drone on giving us waffle for a good 15-20 minutes, but at the end of the day, in my opinion its only about the above two points. You will see and hear media account executives asking the same questions 50 different ways to let their managers know that they turned up and weren’t “bunking off”, but at the end of the day it could be all over in a “Wham Bam Thank You Mam” 10 minutes maximum and everyone could be down to the pub after 20 minutes writing their pieces.\r\n\r\nThe drama unfolds at 2PM EST and the Press Conference at 2:30PM EST on Wednesday.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP</u>: </strong>On the back off the HAWKISH BOE last week we have Retail Sales this Tuesday. I can see it now on twitter. BOE to definitely hike in November as Retail Sales beat, or, BOE rate hike this year in question as UK Retails sales miss.\r\n\r\nFor Carney to do a complete u turn is not unheard of.\r\n\r\nIf ever you go to lunch with him, beware if you only have one hour for allocated, as he is so indecisive about his choices, you may end up eating nothing or eating alone. Allegedly, Carney cannot make up his mind what to eat and when he does he keeps changing his mind.\r\n\r\nIt is so bad that in local restaurants, close to the Threadneedle Street area of London that are known to accommodate BOE employees they have alternative Mark Carney menus. They include a clause “Mr. Carney, once you have decided upon your choice of food from our menu you cannot change your mind. Regretfully forward guidance is believed and 100% adopted by our chefs. The direction you have chosen is final”\r\n\r\nDo not be surprised if Carney has you brain in a fecking twist up to the end of this year. He is the master of changing one’s mind. If it were an Olympic sport he would win the GOLD MEDAL.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>CAD</u></strong>: I am a buyer of CAD$ and I am adding to positions, taking profits here and there as the markets chop back and forth. This week we have CPI and Core Retail Sales, this inflation data will be key for the BOC vis-a-vis another interest rate hike before the end of 2017.\r\n\r\nThe economic data from Canada recently has been really good just the odd bit of mixed data, like the Employment numbers when the mix between Full and Part Time jobs was skewed.\r\n\r\nIf this week’s data does NOT rule out another BOC rate hike, I will be adding more positions to my CORE CAD position.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>NZD</u></strong>:  It is the New Zealand 2017 General Election this Friday. I am generally bearish the Kiwi; however, I believe it would be sound to wind back trades ahead of the result. I have already started this with PREMIUM SERVICE trades and I will continue this process through the week.\r\n\r\nI would imagine the start of trading next weekend will be the time for volatility on a grand scale if we are going to see big moves.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong><strong> </strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>4.1: PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber based Forex support service offering my suggested trade set-ups and market commentary.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nMONTH TO DATE:  +406 net pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE:      +7,062 net pips\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs on my website  <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n<u>4.2: CURRENT SUBSCRIPTION PROMOTION:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/FALL2017-PROMOTION.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9908\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/FALL2017-PROMOTION-788x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"788\" height=\"1024\" /></a><u>\r\n</u><u>\r\n4.3: WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nIf you would like to be in the monthly draw to win a “FREE 30 DAY SUBSCRIPTION” to the PREMIUM SERVICE, valued at CAD$150.00, all you should do is subscribe to receive this FREE NEWSLETTER on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nThis can be done as follows: -\r\n\r\nOn my welcome page just below my cube logo is where you complete your subscription.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>4.4: PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:</u><u>\r\n</u>(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.1: TRADING REVIEW, INSIGHTS and SUMMARY:</u>\r\n\r\nWhat a week last week was.\r\n\r\nI was distracted on several occasions with having to be away to take care of my Jeep’s service but more importantly issues with my new webhost regarding bulk email delivery. The only effective workaround is not to use my WordPress connection through my website but to use my database via constant contact.\r\n\r\nFrom a trading perspective, I have changed views with the cable. I have gone into some detail in “THE SOAPBOX”.\r\n\r\nI tweeted last week after the BOE Super Thursday that I would look for GBP trades into this week, as we were into Friday trading session but especially with the missile launches out of North Korea it made sense to wait. I did not, and frankly no-one could have predicted the comments from Gertjan Vlieghe BOE MPC member. He basically sent his own missile under the GBP. His comments are in a different tone from Carney and we should not get too carried away but that detail would not stop the market reaction. It has been an absolute stellar move across the board.\r\n\r\nI added a good total of net +406 pips in the past seven days which is great but it was a difficult choppy week. Ranges are tightening again (GBP pairs excepted). This is what happens when we are about to have a market SHIFT.\r\n\r\nMarket correlations are just not sitting properly. One day they are trusted the next morning when I check charts the previous alignment has drifted apart. The geopolitical tensions have a great deal to do with this as this directly affects safe havens such as GOLD, plus the JPY and CHF currencies. I must mention though after the missile launch last Thursday, my reaction was complete caution, the market was to shrug it off within a couple of hours. Something is going to give with this and it will be ugly when it happens.\r\n\r\nThe geopolitical events when added to the changes taking place with Central Bank policy throughout the world is also fueling the uncertainties, correlation issues and non-alignments across markets. Central bank uncertainties on future policy timing (FED and ECB), the dovish approach in general changing into a hawkish policy approach (BOC and BOE) and uncertainties in delay by trying to maintain a neutral policy stance over a more hawkish stance (RBA and RBNZ).\r\n\r\nAdd all these factors together and its quite a mixing bowl of ingredients. I am just not convinced on everything FX at the moment, I am fearing the worse. I know that I am slow and steady at this but so much complacency to me is just mental.\r\n\r\nBack to trading…\r\n\r\nLooking forward with trades, I will continue to press forward building a CORE CAD POSITION. Obviously short term NZD/CAD due to election will be restricted, CAD/CHF and CAD/JPY I will watch more closely than before vis-a-via flight to safety. In addition, given the situation with cable I think that GBP/CAD could be tougher unless we see a USD/CAD fall into the 1.1800’s.\r\n\r\nThe CORE NZD position will have to take back seat until the election is over. Friday last week my AUD/NZD took a beating, but as you know for the last 2 years I have been basically long this pair, it is have given some great returns and I will stick with it. My total position size a sizeable broker account is only 40% of a full-sized position. I could ride this pair substantially lower beyond its monthly ATR on STOP LOSS levels, if required, and still not exceed my risk parameters.\r\n\r\nI need to see the election outcome and reaction before committing more trades. My plan this week it to exit NZD related trades ahead of the vote.\r\n\r\nWith regards to the single currency, I am looking to build a CORE LONG POSITION with the EUR. As you know I have started with EUR/USD, to which I will add more set ups and I need to look at the cross rates this week and add. I have a EUR/CAD short that I entered on a SELL STOP below previous good support. It has given me a nasty rebound spike higher. I extended the STOP to stick with this pair as will follow USD/CAD moves. Annoyingly at the moment the USD/CAD is consolidation before resuming its move lower with the trend. Bounces have been minimal so far.\r\n\r\nI have made many references to cable. I will be posting several pullback entries from the get go this week.\r\n\r\nThere will be quite a bit of LIMIT ORDER activity in the early part of the week.\r\n\r\nWe have the FOMC this week as you are aware, it is the draw of the news events. As you have seen, I have adjusted my entry tactics more of late to using momentum as a means of trade entry by using BUY STOPS and SELL STOP orders. These are NOT my preferred means of entering trades but they are working more times than not. I will continue with these for the time being, they should be of use around the FOMC.\r\n\r\nWhilst I am very positive on my trading to obtain results at the moment I do have market concerns as you know and I have raised them again in the blog. I will try tot to get SPOOKED but we ready for mass exits of trades should the ARMAGEDDON situation arise.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.4.2: MARKET SENTIMENT:\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/SENTIMENT-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10009\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/SENTIMENT-17092017-688x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"688\" height=\"1024\" /></a></u><u></u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.3: USD: MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS with TRADING CHARTS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10008\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-17092017-1024x852.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"852\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n\r\nPlease note that now that these charts are PREMIUM SERVICE subscriber only, I am now able to have them focused to existing trades and limit orders as well as future intentions.\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>EUR/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/EURUSD-D-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10019\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/EURUSD-D-17092017-1024x511.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"511\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/GBPUSD-W-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10020\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/GBPUSD-W-17092017-1024x511.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"511\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/AUDUSD-D-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10018\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/AUDUSD-D-17092017-1024x511.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"511\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/NZDUSD-D-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10021\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/NZDUSD-D-17092017-1024x511.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"511\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCAD-D-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10022\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCAD-D-17092017-1024x511.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"511\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCHF-D-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10023\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCHF-D-17092017-1024x511.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"511\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDJPY-D-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10024\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDJPY-D-17092017-1024x511.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"511\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.4.4: EXISTING &amp; POTENTIAL CORE TRADES:\r\n\r\nBasically, I am bearish the CAD and NZD and the two currencies are dominating my thoughts, trades and limit orders at the moment.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE CAD:</u></strong>\r\nCurrently, I am live the following: -\r\n\r\nCAD/CHF – long\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD and EUR/CAD – short\r\n\r\nPlus: - I have SELL STOP limit orders and standard limit orders in position for the USD/CAD.\r\n\r\nI am adding on pullbacks and getting prepared. I see the BOC raising once more this year as they take aim at the housing bubble and personal lending increase’s.\r\n\r\nI am still targeting much lower levels sub 1.2000 with the USD/CAD. This level if broken should drag all CAD pairs stronger.\r\n\r\nA Couple of weeks ago, ScotiaBank released its latest batch of currency targets and thoughts vis-à-vis the markets. It has another rate hike in the mix for Q4 2017 and two more in 2018. If they were all 0.25% rate increases, that would make a grand total rate of 1.75% by the end of 2018.\r\n\r\nIt is a brave call, but I can see it as well given the fundamentals.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: Is to add more USD/CAD trades this coming week and to continue to build a CORE SHORT POSITION that enables me to add to and take pips and $$$ from trades as the CAD strengthens.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE NZD</u></strong>:\r\n\r\nCurrently I have 4 x live long AUD/NZD trades and a NZD/CHF short trade.\r\n\r\nPlus: - One more long AUD/NZD limit order trade, a NZD/JPY short limit order and a EUR/NZD long limit order trades waiting in the wings.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: I am going to reduce NZD exposure this week given the fact that the New Zealand General Election takes place on Friday. I will then look at the market sentiment next week to review my future plan.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE EUR</u></strong>:\r\n\r\nEUR/USD: I have placed multiple LIMIT ORDERS based initially on my thoughts that we would see a larger pullback with the single currency from its break above 1.2000. this materialized only as far as 1.1840.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: I am going to look at adding more LIMIT ORDER set ups over the coming days. I still believe that the EUR/USD is going back towards 1.3000. The rhetoric out of the ECB has been calming, but it is questionable that the market is believing anything that comes out of Frankfurt at the moment.\r\n\r\nI will also look at some EUR crosses once again.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE GBP:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nNothing is in position yet. I believe that there will be some excellent pullback opportunities to enter GBP related trades across the board and I will be looking for these opportunities this week. The only pairs that I am uncertain about are GBP/CAD and GBP/CHF. However, all other crosses should have great potential.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE SOAPBOX:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>\r\nCARNEY COMES OUT OF THE CLOSET\r\n</strong><strong>(BOE NOW HAWKISH)</strong></p>\r\nOn BOE “Super Thursday” last week interest rates remained on hold but the HAWKISH tone of the Monetary Policy Statement sent the cable on a tear.  Later in the day Mark Carney (BOE Governor) was on the wires fueling the statement content further by openly stating that the next move higher in cable would be upwards and sooner than expected.\r\n\r\nHaving moved about 150 pips on the statement release, Carney’s added comments only placed about another 40 pips on top. It was the comments the following morning (Friday) by BOE MPC member Gertjan Vlieghe, who came out and stated that the increase would be soon and more than a one and done which Carney had intimated the prior day. These comments sent the GBP/USD above 1.3600.\r\n\r\nFrom 1.3150 to 1.3600 (450 pips) in basically 24 hours was what you call a substantial shift in sentiment and a stellar move.\r\n\r\nThe comments from Carney, that he has finally let go of the dovish sentiment and admitted a hike was required after months of denial has brought him out of the closet and the dove has now turned hawk.\r\n\r\nBy coincidence upon receipt of the comments from the BOE, but with no closet involved, I have also changed my GBP bias. I am no longer bearish cable in the short / medium term. I am bullish primarily because with cable above the 1.3450 - 1.3500 levels we are now in a bullish trend. The market is now focused on BOE interest rates rather than the political gaffs surrounding BREXIT.\r\n\r\nNow look…\r\n\r\nI still have massive BREXIT reservations and concerns. Theresa May’s government’s handling of the BREXIT negotiations appears poor and not planned. The Tories have a paper-thin majority in the House of Commons.\r\n\r\nHowever, even with this backdrop it looks like that even without a single BREXIT agreement reached and mass confusion reigning over the negotiations, UK households are going to have more cash pressures placed upon them.\r\n\r\nPersonally, I think that this rate increase should it happen is a recipe for disaster. Never trust accountants in deciding these matters. I have said it before, these pen pushing, desk sucking, jotter blotters do not get out much, they live, breathe and survive on historic data and do NOT take into consideration facts in the reality of the present day.\r\n\r\nYou can bet your bottom dollar that any rate increase will be 100% passed on the mortgages and credit card debt. Households that are currently feeling the effects of inflation are about to get a kick in the nuts as living costs are about to move higher. Look out for defaults on loans, mortgages etc. on the increase in the coming months and for “Vlieghe” to intimate multiple interest rate hikes was reckless as it could start something more than just defaults.\r\n\r\nI know some of you will think that the mere fact that the GBP/USD exchange rate is increasing that this is deflationary, and, I agree, but it is a year away at least to feel the deflationary effect. The debt default issues are bubbling under right now beneath the surface prior to adding more pressure through interest rate increases.\r\n\r\nIn addition, do not forget trade will be effected by rate increases. The balancing act is a difficult one to maintain but I am astonished that the pen pushers have gotten their way. Given all the uncertainties on the economy and with BREXIT I would have ran with higher inflation in Q2 2018.\r\n\r\nThere are still a couple of “not sures” emanating from the BOE statement and comments that followed.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Slow rate increases like the FED?</li>\r\n 	<li>Tapering through Balance Sheet reduction of the QE program when will this commence?</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThere is a BOE inflation report due in November, this looks like the date for the first rate hike. So, we do not have detail but the markets have basically already started to price in a 0.25% rate increase.\r\n\r\nWhilst I can see the move by the BOE and the sentiment change, I can also see the other side. This is a risky decision if they go ahead.\r\n\r\nStarting Monday I will be hunting down GBP long trades based off pullbacks through Fibonacci retracements. All GBP pairs are overbought, EUR/GBP oversold, but there will be some great trading opportunities in the near term to take advantage of.\r\n\r\nThe BOC obtained almost $0.13 cents on their move higher, if cable were to match this, it would be close to 1.4450.  Whilst I cannot see that given the money flows I can see a challenge of 1.3870 the 61.8% retracement from the pre BREXIT June 2016 highs (1.5034) to the December 2106 lows (1.1994).\r\n\r\nWhat happens now if we have a catastrophic BREXIT announcement or a leadership battle in the Tory party or another election is called in the next couple of months?\r\n\r\nInteresting times ahead.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS:</strong><strong> </strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #251 FREE NEWSLETTER\r\nSeptember 17th, 2017\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','CARNEY COMES OUT OF THE CLOSET','','inherit','closed','closed','','10033-revision-v1','','','2017-09-16 06:16:24','2017-09-16 11:16:24','',10033,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/10033-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(10039,1,'2017-09-22 15:58:34','2017-09-22 20:58:34','','TCHART 240917','','inherit','open','closed','','tchart-240917','','','2017-09-23 06:09:24','2017-09-23 11:09:24','',10056,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-240917.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(10040,1,'2017-09-22 15:58:40','2017-09-22 20:58:40','','MARKET SENTIMENT 240917','','inherit','open','closed','','market-sentiment-240917','','','2017-09-23 06:11:15','2017-09-23 11:11:15','',10056,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/MARKET-SENTIMENT-240917.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(10049,1,'2017-09-22 16:04:58','2017-09-22 21:04:58','','AUDUSD D 24092017','','inherit','open','closed','','audusd-d-24092017','','','2017-09-23 06:12:08','2017-09-23 11:12:08','',10056,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/AUDUSD-D-24092017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(10050,1,'2017-09-22 16:05:02','2017-09-22 21:05:02','','EURUSD D 24092017','','inherit','open','closed','','eurusd-d-24092017','','','2017-09-23 06:11:48','2017-09-23 11:11:48','',10056,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/EURUSD-D-24092017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(10051,1,'2017-09-22 16:05:05','2017-09-22 21:05:05','','GBPUSD W 24092017','','inherit','open','closed','','gbpusd-w-24092017','','','2017-09-23 06:12:00','2017-09-23 11:12:00','',10056,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/GBPUSD-W-24092017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(10052,1,'2017-09-22 16:05:08','2017-09-22 21:05:08','','NZDUSD D 24092017','','inherit','open','closed','','nzdusd-d-24092017','','','2017-09-23 06:12:16','2017-09-23 11:12:16','',10056,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/NZDUSD-D-24092017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(10053,1,'2017-09-22 16:05:11','2017-09-22 21:05:11','','USDCAD D 24092017','','inherit','open','closed','','usdcad-d-24092017','','','2017-09-23 06:12:23','2017-09-23 11:12:23','',10056,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCAD-D-24092017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(10054,1,'2017-09-22 16:05:15','2017-09-22 21:05:15','','USDCHF D 24092017','','inherit','open','closed','','usdchf-d-24092017','','','2017-09-23 06:12:31','2017-09-23 11:12:31','',10056,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCHF-D-24092017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(10055,1,'2017-09-22 16:05:17','2017-09-22 21:05:17','','USDJPY D 24092017','','inherit','open','closed','','usdjpy-d-24092017','','','2017-09-23 06:12:39','2017-09-23 11:12:39','',10056,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDJPY-D-24092017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(10056,1,'2017-09-23 06:17:18','2017-09-23 11:17:18','&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nYou may notice as you digest the blog this week that some long awaited, from my perspective format changes have now been introduced.\r\n\r\nBasically, my FREE NEWSLETTER subscribers have sections 1-3 and now a larger PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers only section 4 completes the blog. This new streamlined approach fits better with my schedule and allows me to be more concise.\r\n\r\nOutstanding items…\r\n\r\nI still need to complete my PREMIUM SERVICE video. Not an excuse but last Thursday I had three hours put to one side for it, but when I first glanced at my screens at 4:30AM it was a sea of RED. No amount of coffee or other stimulant was going to put me in the best of moods for completing a “Mr. Happy” video. It was a 100% warm blue sky day and still warm, my wife and I went out for Lobster instead!!\r\n\r\nMy apologies, I will get this sorted in the coming week with the link placed in this segment of the blog (I think).\r\n\r\nMy EA’s (Expert Advisors - Algorithms) that I mentioned last week are STILL outstanding. I had hoped to have progressed these further by now. I feel like I am back in school with this stuff, codes and such like. My partners are being very patient and totally supportive throughout this process.\r\n\r\nThe big issue is going to be how do I bring these EA’s into the PREMIUM SERVICE. I have still got to work that conundrum out!!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong><u>2.1: LOOKING BACK AT LAST WEEK’S NEWS.</u></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIn no special order, here is what floated my boat last week.\r\n\r\n<u>GBP: RETAIL SALES, BORIS &amp; THERESA MAYS’S SPEECH IN FLORENCE. </u>\r\n\r\nRetail sales were a blowout number. I had read a document from the CBI the day before that had indicated strength in sales so I was ready for it.\r\n\r\nBoris Johnson is flexing, or rumoured to be. The GBP strengthened about 40-50 pips on the news that he may be resigning.\r\n\r\nI digress but I had to laugh, I was on webinar when several Americans chirped up and commented about how poor old Boris was a clown. I only have this to say about clowns …1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, Washington DC.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nI remember the Sunday that Boris announced that he was supporting the BREXIT move, he was then the Mayor of London. That was the start of the cable sell off.  Regretfully, I was long GBP/NZD. I remember being on twitter with a couple of traders I respect, discussing the effects of Boris on the cable.\r\n\r\nHis potential resignation is NOT causing 10% of the shenanigans his BREXIT support move did in the currency market.\r\n\r\nThe best for last…\r\n\r\nTheresa May delivered a politician’s speech in Florence as far as I was concerned. Her previous keynote speech which she did earlier at Lancaster House in London laid out her governments position and basically, I thought she repeated most of that content again. She just stated her position, as is what politicians do. Cable sold off, bounced after the speech and then sold off once again.\r\n\r\nThe EU negotiating team probably loved it, high on rhetoric low on content specifics, full of waffle and bullshit. Just what Brussels would order every day of the week. In fact, Michel Barnier (Head EU negotiator from Brussels) said soon after Theresa May had finished that he found the speech “To be in a constructive spirit”. Need I say anymore.\r\n\r\nMay’s position as leader of the Tories and Prime Minister is tenuous to put it mildly; any sane person not a “Dotard” would look at the job of guiding the UK through BREXIT as a poisoned chalice. Therefore, for now I think no one will challenge her.\r\n\r\nHowever, politicians are a strange breed and there are plenty of clowns wanting to be on the worlds stage. You cannot predict with certainty what might happen.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>USD: FOMC RARE DECISION STATEMENT &amp; PRESS CONFERENCE.</u>\r\n\r\nWTF... unbelievable … I am probably on my own here with these thoughts so it could be Scott v the World.\r\n\r\nFor the past God only knows how long, the FED has been data dependent. It has been almost to the point of can’t pee unless the data supports it.\r\n\r\nLast Wednesday…\r\n\r\nBollocks to the fecking data. What are they smoking? What are they drinking? Because I want some of that.\r\n\r\nThe FED believes that two record breaking hurricanes (natural disasters) inside a month hitting two of the biggest economically contributing states in the union both with very, very large areas either under water, or with mass construction damage or both are not going to be producing anything for some time.  Yellen said spending is expanding at a moderate rate, investment is increasing and labour data is strengthened. I don’t get it. All the data I have seen lately doesn’t say that and doesn’t support that view.\r\n\r\nThen the cherry on the cake…inflation. What fecking inflation? Oh, yes…transitory. Transitory my arse. The U.S. economy is not in as great shape as we all thought it was going to be.\r\n\r\nJanet Yellen “the uber dove” must be on medication as the statement and press conference commentaries were so damn positive.\r\n\r\nThe FED takes us for a pile of numpties. Ben Bernanke before her and Yellen herself tell us what’s suits them at the time. It’s NOT forward guidance, or anything resembling that. That went months ago. This is about covering one’s arse, nothing more and nothing less.\r\n\r\nAll one had to do was look at the markets after the knee jerk reaction to strengthen the USD. The following sessions after the Press Conference the DXY consolidated and then in the following US session it sold off again.\r\n\r\nEquities reaction in the US to the FED balance sheet tightening from next month and an interest rate hike before the end of 2017 plus 3 more in 2018 was what? To do absolutely nothing.\r\n\r\nI was gob smacked by the FX market on Thursday. It did not know what to do. It was clueless, directionless for hours and basically the day was best summed up as being a ‘nonsense, nothing made sense at all”.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2: LOOKING AHEAD TO THIS COMING WEEK:</u><u></u>\r\n\r\n2.2.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/ECON-DATA-240917.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10038\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/ECON-DATA-240917-1024x701.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"701\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.2: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-240917.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10039\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-240917-1024x852.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"852\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.3: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:</u>\r\n\r\nNot a lot this week to choose from. Here are my picks of the upcoming week.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD:</u></strong>  CONSUMER CONFIDENCE:\r\n\r\nThe Consumer Confidence numbers always interest me because albeit a backward-looking number it lets you know what is going on in the head of the consumer. Not that the data really matters anymore, it would appear that the FED is raising regardless and economic data is no longer considered.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP</u>:  </strong>CURRENT ACCOUNT<strong>:</strong>\r\n\r\nWith the major banks now ramping up their processes to leave the City of London the importance of trending this data takes on a greater value. It is inevitable that this number will get worse as BREXIT approaches and the BOE will look at this data and perhaps have an “Oh crap” moment questioning their decision to raise rates. Money flows are monitored and measured closely by the BOE.\r\n\r\nThis could be a surprising market mover.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>CAD</u></strong>: GDP:\r\n\r\nAfter mixed inflation data, last week this will be used no doubt as a barometer as to whether the BOC will raise again, or not raise again, before the end of 2017.\r\n\r\nEconomic data from Canada has been strong and the market is geared up for a hike. A strong number could see an overreaction. Not that we are ever used to seeing the Forex Market overreact!!\r\n\r\n<strong><u>NZD</u></strong>:  RBNZ RATE STATEMENT &amp; CASH RATE:\r\n\r\nHot on the heels of election. I would expect more of the same from the last meeting. Nothing new at all.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is my own subscriber based Forex support service that offers subscribers my suggested trade set-ups and market commentaries.\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting the HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE tab.\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nMONTH TO DATE:  +873 net pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE:      +7,529 net pips\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs on my website  <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS ONLY:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>4.1: PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:</u><u>\r\n</u>(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4.1.1: TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\nDespite stormy weather last week I added +467 pips to the annual target. The monthly total now stands at +873 pips and for the year at 7,529 pips.\r\n\r\nThis was achieved without trading the FOMC with fresh trades or Theresa May’s Florence speech last Friday. Staying away from these volatile events certainly pays off, because if you jump in too soon without conviction in the market you are screwed. Having said that I was “OUT” for the FOMC meeting for about 40 minutes!\r\n\r\nI should say, when I finally got back after the FOMC my charts and brokers were just a sea of RED everywhere. I thought shit. I am positioned the wrong way 100% even the trades that should have been OK were NOT. In a rather bizarre, twisted process I found some degree of comfort knowing that all was not aligned. The next day even with a couple of losing trades counted in I still processed +290 pips. My thoughts on non-alignment and being patient with the markets paid off.\r\n\r\nWe end the week on #rocketman and #dotard.\r\n\r\nI covered trades at the end of the week to reduce RISK and I removed a couple of USD related limit orders. These trades will be placed back this week if the NK tensions die down. God only knows what will happen here moving forward.\r\n\r\nDespite adding pips, it is difficult. I am reacting to news rather than technical levels. It is what it is and I know it can be difficult keeping up with me if you are not in the same time zone. However, from my perspective this is the Forex marketplace we trade in and I am up, amending trades making comments on twitter in all time zones and trading sessions.\r\n\r\nI will continue to aim at cross-rate pairs moving forward. Whilst these attract a greater risk they are not dominated directly by the USD and I think in the short to medium terms they make sense to focus on. Of course, should geopolitical tensions rise the liquidity in these pairs that is questionable at the best of times can really dry up, so please be patient. The technicals must line up with the fundamentals for me via my TRADE PLAN.\r\n\r\nNo ARMAGEDDON TRADES yet, but I will continue to add limit orders to CORE TRADES and POSITIONS next week once again, especially some detailed analysis with the EUR and GBP pairs.<u></u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.1.2: SENTIMENT,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:\r\n</u>\r\n\r\nThe USD sentiment is mixed. This always happens when geopolitical risks are increased. We should also bear in mind that big news, largely unexpected from the FED has also had its effect of the markets. I strongly suspect many traders, even the large institutional traders were caught off guard by Janet Yellen’s comments. I would not be surprised if many of them used Thursday’s reversal to flatten trades and have a re-think over this weekend.\r\n\r\nAs a retail trader building positions, unless I close off and bank losses I do not have the same luxury as bankers not playing with their own $$$. I must believe in my FUNDAMENTAL thoughts and views and plough on.\r\n\r\nI would not rule out a USD (DXY) bounce higher just to take out USD longs from the market and re-calibrate matters. The market is extremely efficient at times at cleaning up the balance. I am NOT expecting a run higher than the 93.00 level in the DXY then I expect a return in the trend lower again towards c.87.50.\r\n\r\nThis is the foundation of my trading thoughts, short-term plans moving forward. I do not expect the USD spike higher to last longer than a week or so, that is of course should it happen. We may just roll-over.\r\n\r\nThe geopolitical news is making a lot of people twitchy. The USD is no longer the flight to safety that it used to be. GOLD, JPY &amp; CHF are the go to plays now in my opinion.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/MARKET-SENTIMENT-240917.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10040\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/MARKET-SENTIMENT-240917-778x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"778\" height=\"1024\" /></a></u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.1.3: USD - SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS: </u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-240917.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10039\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-240917-1024x852.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"852\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.1.4: USD – TRADING CHARTS and COMMENTARIES: </u>\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n\r\nPlease note that now that these charts are PREMIUM SERVICE subscriber only, I am now able to have them focused to existing trades and limit orders as well as future intentions.\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>EUR/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/EURUSD-D-24092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10050\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/EURUSD-D-24092017-1024x511.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"511\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/GBPUSD-W-24092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10051\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/GBPUSD-W-24092017-1024x511.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"511\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/AUDUSD-D-24092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10049\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/AUDUSD-D-24092017-1024x511.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"511\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/NZDUSD-D-24092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10052\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/NZDUSD-D-24092017-1024x511.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"511\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCAD-D-24092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10053\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCAD-D-24092017-1024x511.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"511\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCHF-D-24092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10054\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCHF-D-24092017-1024x511.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"511\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\n<u><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDJPY-D-24092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10055\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDJPY-D-24092017-1024x511.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"511\" /></a></u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.1.5: EXISTING CORE TRADES (PLANS &amp; STRATEGIES):</u>\r\n\r\nBasically, I am bearish the CAD and NZD and the two currencies are dominating my thoughts, trades and limit orders at the moment.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE CAD:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nCurrently, I am live the following: -\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD\r\n\r\nPlus: - I have SELL STOP limit orders and standard limit orders in position for the USD/CAD.\r\n\r\nI covered and closed open positions on Friday last week to reduce RISK given the North Korea geopolitical circumstances.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: Is to add more USD/CAD trades this coming week and add back those trades that I removed at the end of last week. Plus, now that the German and New Zealand elections will be decided I can take a longer-term view on NZD/CAD and EUR/CAD once again.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE NZD</u></strong>:\r\n\r\nCurrently I have multiple live long AUD/NZD trades.\r\n\r\nPlus: - One more long AUD/NZD limit order trade.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: I am going to add exposure this week following the election. Looking at NZD/USD, EUR/NZD, GBP/NZD, NZD/JPY, NZD/CHF and NZD/CAD charts.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.1.6: CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u>CURRENT LIVE TRADES:\r\n\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/LIVE-24092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10082\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/LIVE-24092017-890x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"890\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\nCURRENT LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/LIMIT-ORDERS-240917.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10041\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/LIMIT-ORDERS-240917-800x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.1.7: FX BROKER NEWS with their MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\nI have spoken with several brokers this past week. They are all fearful of a deteriorating North Korean situation but also a little surprising to me they were all ramping up, or considering ramping up margin requirements due to the German elections.\r\n\r\nAlthough unclear on numbers by percentage, of the four I spoke with and have known for several years retail clients are down. The account bonus offers are finally being seen for what they are, which in my humble opinion is a con. They are desperately seeking another attractive offer to lure in fresh meat!\r\n\r\nThe concept of no slippage, low rate spreads, effective people on chat and quick email turnarounds will eventually hit home and the penny will drop when they realise they can create market differentiation and grow their client base even in a declining market without having to look to acquisition to achieve it.\r\n\r\nSo basically, I learned nothing. No ground-breaking earth shattering developments… yet!\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS &amp; IDEAS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5.1: WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you have read in this blog and would like the chance to win a FREE SUBSCRIPTION valued at CAD$150.00, all you should do is subscribe to my FREE NEWSLETTER (this blog), by adding your email address on my welcome page just below my cube logo at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\n<u>5.2: PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTIONS:</u>\r\n\r\nShould you want to go a stage further and subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE. This can be done on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the Tab SUBSCRIBE HERE.\r\n\r\nSubscribing to the PREMIUM SERVICE is not just about receiving a larger “DRIVE THRU” blog packed with more trading supporting information, my thoughts and ideas. There is much more to a subscription that those things. Check it all out under the tab HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nFrom time to time I offer subscription promotions. These can be viewed under the tab FX PROMOTIONS at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nNOTE: There is a promotion in place right now!\r\n\r\nI show below an interesting excel spreadsheet based around my PREMIUM SERVICE monthly subscription option of CAD$150.00 per month. I hope that you find this interesting.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/CAD150-SUBSCRIPTION-240917.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10037\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/CAD150-SUBSCRIPTION-240917-912x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"912\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n5.3: THE FINISHING LINE:\r\n\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #148 PREMIUM SERVICE\r\n24th September 2017\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','WAS YELLEN’S HAWKISH MOMENT TRANSITORY?','','publish','open','closed','','yellens-hawkish-moment-transitory','','','2017-09-28 03:51:50','2017-09-28 08:51:50','',0,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?post_type=member_posts&#038;p=10056',0,'member_posts','',0),(10057,1,'2017-09-23 06:17:18','2017-09-23 11:17:18','&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nYou may notice as you digest the blog this week that some long awaited, from my perspective format changes have now been introduced.\r\n\r\nBasically, my FREE NEWSLETTER subscribers have sections 1-3 and now a larger PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers only section 4 completes the blog. This new streamlined approach fits better with my schedule and allows me to be more concise.\r\n\r\nOutstanding items…\r\n\r\nI still need to complete my PREMIUM SERVICE video. Not an excuse but last Thursday I had three hours put to one side for it, but when I first glanced at my screens at 4:30AM it was a sea of RED. No amount of coffee or other stimulant was going to put me in the best of moods for completing a “Mr. Happy” video. It was a 100% warm blue sky day and still warm, my wife and I went out for Lobster instead!!\r\n\r\nMy apologies, I will get this sorted in the coming week with the link placed in this segment of the blog (I think).\r\n\r\nMy EA’s (Expert Advisors - Algorithms) that I mentioned last week are STILL outstanding. I had hoped to have progressed these further by now. I feel like I am back in school with this stuff, codes and such like. My partners are being very patient and totally supportive throughout this process.\r\n\r\nThe big issue is going to be how do I bring these EA’s into the PREMIUM SERVICE. I have still got to work that conundrum out!!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:\r\n\r\n</strong><u>2.1: LOOKING BACK AT LAST WEEK’S NEWS.</u></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIn no special order, here is what floated my boat last week.\r\n\r\n<u>GBP: RETAIL SALES, BORIS &amp; THERESA MAYS’S SPEECH IN FLORENCE. </u>\r\n\r\nRetail sales were a blowout number. I had read a document from the CBI the day before that had indicated strength in sales so I was ready for it.\r\n\r\nBoris Johnson is flexing, or rumoured to be. The GBP strengthened about 40-50 pips on the news that he may be resigning.\r\n\r\nI digress but I had to laugh, I was on webinar when several Americans chirped up and commented about how poor old Boris was a clown. I only have this to say about clowns …1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, Washington DC.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nI remember the Sunday that Boris announced that he was supporting the BREXIT move, he was then the Mayor of London. That was the start of the cable sell off.  Regretfully, I was long GBP/NZD. I remember being on twitter with a couple of traders I respect, discussing the effects of Boris on the cable.\r\n\r\nHis potential resignation is NOT causing 10% of the shenanigans his BREXIT support move did in the currency market.\r\n\r\nThe best for last…\r\n\r\nTheresa May delivered a politician’s speech in Florence as far as I was concerned. Her previous keynote speech which she did earlier at Lancaster House in London laid out her governments position and basically, I thought she repeated most of that content again. She just stated her position, as is what politicians do. Cable sold off, bounced after the speech and then sold off once again.\r\n\r\nThe EU negotiating team probably loved it, high on rhetoric low on content specifics, full of waffle and bullshit. Just what Brussels would order every day of the week. In fact, Michel Barnier (Head EU negotiator from Brussels) said soon after Theresa May had finished that he found the speech “To be in a constructive spirit”. Need I say anymore.\r\n\r\nMay’s position as leader of the Tories and Prime Minister is tenuous to put it mildly; any sane person not a “Dotard” would look at the job of guiding the UK through BREXIT as a poisoned chalice. Therefore, for now I think no one will challenge her.\r\n\r\nHowever, politicians are a strange breed and there are plenty of clowns wanting to be on the worlds stage. You cannot predict with certainty what might happen.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>USD: FOMC RARE DECISION STATEMENT &amp; PRESS CONFERENCE.</u>\r\n\r\nWTF... unbelievable … I am probably on my own here with these thoughts so it could be Scott v the World.\r\n\r\nFor the past God only knows how long, the FED has been data dependent. It has been almost to the point of can’t pee unless the data supports it.\r\n\r\nLast Wednesday…\r\n\r\nBollocks to the fecking data. What are they smoking? What are they drinking? Because I want some of that.\r\n\r\nThe FED believes that two record breaking hurricanes (natural disasters) inside a month hitting two of the biggest economically contributing states in the union both with very, very large areas either under water, or with mass construction damage or both are not going to be producing anything for some time.  Yellen said spending is expanding at a moderate rate, investment is increasing and labour data is strengthened. I don’t get it. All the data I have seen lately doesn’t say that and doesn’t support that view.\r\n\r\nThen the cherry on the cake…inflation. What fecking inflation? Oh, yes…transitory. Transitory my arse. The U.S. economy is not in as great shape as we all thought it was going to be.\r\n\r\nJanet Yellen “the uber dove” must be on medication as the statement and press conference commentaries were so damn positive.\r\n\r\nThe FED takes us for a pile of numpties. Ben Bernanke before her and Yellen herself tell us what’s suits them at the time. It’s NOT forward guidance, or anything resembling that. That went months ago. This is about covering one’s arse, nothing more and nothing less.\r\n\r\nAll one had to do was look at the markets after the knee jerk reaction to strengthen the USD. The following sessions after the Press Conference the DXY consolidated and then in the following US session it sold off again.\r\n\r\nEquities reaction in the US to the FED balance sheet tightening from next month and an interest rate hike before the end of 2017 plus 3 more in 2018 was what? To do absolutely nothing.\r\n\r\nI was gob smacked by the FX market on Thursday. It did not know what to do. It was clueless, directionless for hours and basically the day was best summed up as being a ‘nonsense, nothing made sense at all”.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2: LOOKING AHEAD TO THIS COMING WEEK:</u><u>\r\n\r\n2.2.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/ECON-DATA-240917.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10038\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/ECON-DATA-240917-1024x701.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"701\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.2: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-240917.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10039\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-240917-1024x852.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"852\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.3: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:\r\n\r\n</u>Not a lot this week to choose from. Here are my picks of the upcoming week.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD:</u></strong>  CONSUMER CONFIDENCE:\r\n\r\nThe Consumer Confidence numbers always interest me because albeit a backward-looking number it lets you know what is going on in the head of the consumer. Not that the data really matters anymore, it would appear that the FED is raising regardless and economic data is no longer considered.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP</u>:  </strong>CURRENT ACCOUNT<strong>:</strong>\r\n\r\nWith the major banks now ramping up their processes to leave the City of London the importance of trending this data takes on a greater value. It is inevitable that this number will get worse as BREXIT approaches and the BOE will look at this data and perhaps have an “Oh crap” moment questioning their decision to raise rates. Money flows are monitored and measured closely by the BOE.\r\n\r\nThis could be a surprising market mover.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>CAD</u></strong>: GDP:\r\n\r\nAfter mixed inflation data, last week this will be used no doubt as a barometer as to whether the BOC will raise again, or not raise again, before the end of 2017.\r\n\r\nEconomic data from Canada has been strong and the market is geared up for a hike. A strong number could see an overreaction. Not that we are ever used to seeing the Forex Market overreact!!\r\n\r\n<strong><u>NZD</u></strong>:  RBNZ RATE STATEMENT &amp; CASH RATE:\r\n\r\nHot on the heels of election. I would expect more of the same from the last meeting. Nothing new at all.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is my own subscriber based Forex support service that offers subscribers my suggested trade set-ups and market commentaries.\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting the HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE tab.\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nMONTH TO DATE:  +873 net pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE:      +7,529 net pips\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs on my website  <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS ONLY:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>4.1: PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:</u><u>\r\n</u>(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4.1.1: TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\nDespite stormy weather last week I added +467 pips to the annual target. The monthly total now stands at +873 pips and for the year at 7,529 pips.\r\n\r\nThis was achieved without trading the FOMC with fresh trades or Theresa May’s Florence speech last Friday. Staying away from these volatile events certainly pays off, because if you jump in too soon without conviction in the market you are screwed. Having said that I was “OUT” for the FOMC meeting for about 40 minutes!\r\n\r\nI should say, when I finally got back after the FOMC my charts and brokers were just a sea of RED everywhere. I thought shit. I am positioned the wrong way 100% even the trades that should have been OK were NOT. In a rather bizarre, twisted process I found some degree of comfort knowing that all was not aligned. The next day even with a couple of losing trades counted in I still processed +290 pips. My thoughts on non-alignment and being patient with the markets paid off.\r\n\r\nWe end the week on #rocketman and #dotard.\r\n\r\nI covered trades at the end of the week to reduce RISK and I removed a couple of USD related limit orders. These trades will be placed back this week if the NK tensions die down. God only knows what will happen here moving forward.\r\n\r\nDespite adding pips, it is difficult. I am reacting to news rather than technical levels. It is what it is and I know it can be difficult keeping up with me if you are not in the same time zone. However, from my perspective this is the Forex marketplace we trade in and I am up, amending trades making comments on twitter in all time zones and trading sessions.\r\n\r\nI will continue to aim at cross-rate pairs moving forward. Whilst these attract a greater risk they are not dominated directly by the USD and I think in the short to medium terms they make sense to focus on. Of course, should geopolitical tensions rise the liquidity in these pairs that is questionable at the best of times can really dry up, so please be patient. The technicals must line up with the fundamentals for me via my TRADE PLAN.\r\n\r\nNo ARMAGEDDON TRADES yet, but I will continue to add limit orders to CORE TRADES and POSITIONS next week once again, especially some detailed analysis with the EUR and GBP pairs.<u>\r\n\r\n</u><u>4.1.2: SENTIMENT,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:\r\n</u>\r\n\r\nThe USD sentiment is mixed. This always happens when geopolitical risks are increased. We should also bear in mind that big news, largely unexpected from the FED has also had its effect of the markets. I strongly suspect many traders, even the large institutional traders were caught off guard by Janet Yellen’s comments. I would not be surprised if many of them used Thursday’s reversal to flatten trades and have a re-think over this weekend.\r\n\r\nAs a retail trader building positions, unless I close off and bank losses I do not have the same luxury as bankers not playing with their own $$$. I must believe in my FUNDAMENTAL thoughts and views and plough on.\r\n\r\nI would not rule out a USD (DXY) bounce higher just to take out USD longs from the market and re-calibrate matters. The market is extremely efficient at times at cleaning up the balance. I am NOT expecting a run higher than the 93.00 level in the DXY then I expect a return in the trend lower again towards c.87.50.\r\n\r\nThis is the foundation of my trading thoughts, short-term plans moving forward. I do not expect the USD spike higher to last longer than a week or so, that is of course should it happen. We may just roll-over.\r\n\r\nThe geopolitical news is making a lot of people twitchy. The USD is no longer the flight to safety that it used to be. GOLD, JPY &amp; CHF are the go to plays now in my opinion.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/MARKET-SENTIMENT-240917.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10040\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/MARKET-SENTIMENT-240917-778x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"778\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.1.3: USD - SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS: </u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-240917.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10039\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-240917-1024x852.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"852\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.1.4: USD – TRADING CHARTS and COMMENTARIES: </u>\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n\r\nPlease note that now that these charts are PREMIUM SERVICE subscriber only, I am now able to have them focused to existing trades and limit orders as well as future intentions.\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>EUR/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/EURUSD-D-24092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10050\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/EURUSD-D-24092017-1024x511.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"511\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/GBPUSD-W-24092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10051\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/GBPUSD-W-24092017-1024x511.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"511\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/AUDUSD-D-24092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10049\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/AUDUSD-D-24092017-1024x511.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"511\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/NZDUSD-D-24092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10052\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/NZDUSD-D-24092017-1024x511.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"511\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCAD-D-24092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10053\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCAD-D-24092017-1024x511.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"511\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCHF-D-24092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10054\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCHF-D-24092017-1024x511.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"511\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\n<u><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDJPY-D-24092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10055\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDJPY-D-24092017-1024x511.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"511\" /></a>\r\n\r\n</u><u>4.1.5: EXISTING CORE TRADES (PLANS &amp; STRATEGIES):</u>\r\n\r\nBasically, I am bearish the CAD and NZD and the two currencies are dominating my thoughts, trades and limit orders at the moment.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE CAD:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nCurrently, I am live the following: -\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD\r\n\r\nPlus: - I have SELL STOP limit orders and standard limit orders in position for the USD/CAD.\r\n\r\nI covered and closed open positions on Friday last week to reduce RISK given the North Korea geopolitical circumstances.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: Is to add more USD/CAD trades this coming week and add back those trades that I removed at the end of last week. Plus, now that the German and New Zealand elections will be decided I can take a longer-term view on NZD/CAD and EUR/CAD once again.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE NZD</u></strong>:\r\n\r\nCurrently I have 5 x live long AUD/NZD trades.\r\n\r\nPlus: - One more long AUD/NZD limit order trade.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: I am going to add exposure this week following the election. Looking at NZD/USD, EUR/NZD, GBP/NZD, NZD/JPY, NZD/CHF and NZD/CAD charts.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.1.6: CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u>CURRENT LIVE TRADES:\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/LIVE-ORDERS-240917.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10042\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/LIVE-ORDERS-240917-839x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"839\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\nCURRENT LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/LIMIT-ORDERS-240917.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10041\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/LIMIT-ORDERS-240917-800x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.1.7: FX BROKER NEWS with their MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\nI have spoken with several brokers this past week. They are all fearful of a deteriorating North Korean situation but also a little surprising to me they were all ramping up, or considering ramping up margin requirements due to the German elections.\r\n\r\nAlthough unclear on numbers by percentage, of the four I spoke with and have known for several years retail clients are down. The account bonus offers are finally being seen for what they are, which in my humble opinion is a con. They are desperately seeking another attractive offer to lure in fresh meat!\r\n\r\nThe concept of no slippage, low rate spreads, effective people on chat and quick email turnarounds will eventually hit home and the penny will drop when they realise they can create market differentiation and grow their client base even in a declining market without having to look to acquisition to achieve it.\r\n\r\nSo basically, I learned nothing. No ground-breaking earth shattering developments… yet!\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS &amp; IDEAS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5.1: WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you have read in this blog and would like the chance to win a FREE SUBSCRIPTION valued at CAD$150.00, all you should do is subscribe to my FREE NEWSLETTER (this blog), by adding your email address on my welcome page just below my cube logo at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\n<u>5.2: PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTIONS:</u>\r\n\r\nShould you want to go a stage further and subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE. This can be done on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the Tab SUBSCRIBE HERE.\r\n\r\nSubscribing to the PREMIUM SERVICE is not just about receiving a larger “DRIVE THRU” blog packed with more trading supporting information, my thoughts and ideas. There is much more to a subscription that those things. Check it all out under the tab HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nFrom time to time I offer subscription promotions. These can be viewed under the tab FX PROMOTIONS at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nNOTE: There is a promotion in place right now!\r\n\r\nI show below an interesting excel spreadsheet based around my PREMIUM SERVICE monthly subscription option of CAD$150.00 per month. I hope that you find this interesting.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/CAD150-SUBSCRIPTION-240917.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10037\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/CAD150-SUBSCRIPTION-240917-912x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"912\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n\r\n5.3: THE FINISHING LINE:</u>\r\n\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #148 PREMIUM SERVICE\r\n24th September 2017\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','WAS YELLEN’S HAWKISH MOMENT TRANSITORY?','','inherit','closed','closed','','10056-revision-v1','','','2017-09-23 06:17:18','2017-09-23 11:17:18','',10056,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/10056-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(10164,1,'2017-10-07 08:28:45','2017-10-07 13:28:45','','AUDUSD D 08102017','','inherit','open','closed','','audusd-d-08102017','','','2017-10-07 09:47:36','2017-10-07 14:47:36','',10171,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/AUDUSD-D-08102017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(10324,1,'2017-10-31 16:01:17','2017-10-31 21:01:17','','PREM SERV CONSOLIDATED OCT2017','','inherit','open','closed','','prem-serv-consolidated-oct2017','','','2017-10-31 16:15:02','2017-10-31 21:15:02','',5002,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/PREM-SERV-CONSOLIDATED-OCT2017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(10325,1,'2017-10-31 16:01:21','2017-10-31 21:01:21','','PIP COMPARISON OCT2017','','inherit','open','closed','','pip-comparison-oct2017','','','2017-10-31 16:15:56','2017-10-31 21:15:56','',6869,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/PIP-COMPARISON-OCT2017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(10953,1,'2018-02-09 16:17:26','2018-02-09 21:17:26','<h4>POSITION TRADES Archives:</h4>\r\n<section class=\"clearfix\">\r\n<div class=\"one-half first\">\r\n<h2>This Month<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/POS1-09022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10939\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/POS1-09022018-780x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"780\" height=\"1024\" /></a><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/POS2-09022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10940\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/POS2-09022018-786x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"786\" height=\"1024\" /></a></h2>\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/POS1-19112016.png\">\r\n</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"one-half\">\r\n<h2>Year to date<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/POS-JANYTD2018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10904\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/POS-JANYTD2018-748x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"748\" height=\"1024\" /></a></h2>\r\n<h2>PREVIOUS YEARS</h2>\r\n<h2><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/POSITION-COMPLETE-2017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-10714\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/POSITION-COMPLETE-2017.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"820\" height=\"946\" /></a></h2>\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/POS-2016-COMPLETE.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-8814\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/POS-2016-COMPLETE.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"816\" height=\"946\" /></a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</section>','POSITION TRADES','','inherit','closed','closed','','6965-revision-v1','','','2018-02-09 16:17:26','2018-02-09 21:17:26','',6965,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/6965-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(10962,1,'2018-02-10 06:53:24','2018-02-10 11:53:24','&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE FIRST SHOT:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nWhere do I start with this week’s blog?\r\n\r\nDo I get a few of my usual expletive’s out of the way first?\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Holy Mother of God</li>\r\n 	<li>What the feck was that?</li>\r\n 	<li>Well, glaze my nipples and call me Rita!</li>\r\n 	<li>Jesus, Mary and Joseph</li>\r\n 	<li>It’s like putting lipstick on a pig… but it’s still a pig</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nI feel a bit better after that…\r\n\r\nSo many subjects to choose from this week plus, I have so many pieces of paper with memory joggers noted on them to choose from it’s hard to know what to use never mind where to start from.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>STOCK MARKET CORRECTION</li>\r\n 	<li>BOND YIELDS ON A TEAR</li>\r\n 	<li>OVER BOUGHT CONDITIONS IN STOCK MARKET</li>\r\n 	<li>RAMIFICATIONS OF A RISING U.S. DEFICIT TO THE U.S. &amp; WORLD</li>\r\n 	<li>S. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK WITH STOCK MARKET FALL</li>\r\n 	<li>INTER-MARKET CORRELATIONS OUT OF THE WINDOW</li>\r\n 	<li>CREDIBILITY OF CENTRAL BANK ANNOUNCEMENTS</li>\r\n 	<li>STRENGTH OF THE USD (DXY) SPIKING OFF LOWS</li>\r\n 	<li>BANK OF ENGLAND TURNING HAWKISH</li>\r\n 	<li>CHINA DATA MODERATING, HOW WILL THIS MANIFEST ITSELF MOVING FORWARD</li>\r\n 	<li>IS THE UK GOING TO WALK AWAY FROM BREXIT WITH A “NO DEAL”?</li>\r\n 	<li>SHOULD THE UK TELL THE EU27 TO SHOVE THE BREXIT PROPOSALS WHERE THE SUN DOESN’T SHINE?</li>\r\n 	<li>COMMODITY WEAKNESS STARTING TO SHOW… WHAT ARE THE RAMIFICATIONS</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nIn this section I have decided to touch on the media and how we as traders are basically treated as mushrooms fed shi*e and kept pretty much in the dark.\r\n\r\nSince Friday Feb 2nd, I have had both CNBC and BLOOMBERG broadcasting alongside my trading screens set up. I wonder why I have had multiple headaches and a migraine in the last week, damn obvious when you think about it.\r\n\r\nBack on point…\r\n\r\nIf you recall when the GFC happened, no-one admitted to losing money. Every clever fecker on CNBC saw it coming and dropped into cash ahead of the carnage. Now I am not comparing the recent correction in stocks to the GFC in size or world impact, there is no comparison, but I am comparing what we receive from the media about it.\r\n\r\nWe as traders like to have data. We live, eat and breathe data. I get it, sometimes moves just happen. But out of every move there are winners and losers.\r\n\r\nWe are led to believe, and this makes complete sense to me, that the CORRECTION was caused mainly by the inflation effect of the average hourly earnings increase to 2.9% annualized contained in the Non-Farm data release on 2nd February.  The move up in earnings, spooked the bond markets because of the inflation ramifications and in so doing, created a domino effect, the commodity area started to react, then FX, albeit subdued, and finally Wall Street the equity markets suddenly heard the penny drop.\r\n\r\n“FECK ME; HOLY CRAP” … maybe the FED may actually raise interest rates 3 or 4 times this year!\r\n\r\nThe domino effect, the circle was now complete. The rest is history as they say.\r\n\r\nA week last Friday was a roller coaster market. The following Monday the DOW JONES closed over 1,100 points lower, a similar loss of 1,032 points was noted on Thursday last week. Both the DOW and broader based S&amp;P entered CORRECTION territory as they had slipped 10% from their highs.\r\n\r\nMillions of dollars have been wiped out. Last week was the worse week on Wall Street since 2011.\r\n\r\nSo; who was selling?\r\n\r\nI haven’t got a fecking clue.\r\n\r\nAll I have heard from BLOOMBERG and CNBC was everyone was holding tight looking for the right opportunity to step back in with value picks.\r\n\r\nFFS… someone, some institution was shorting the market.\r\n\r\nPlease forgive me if CNBC or BLOOMBERG found a seller, when I was taking a nap, having a sleep, eating or having a bathroom break, but I never heard or saw a name not even a rumour.\r\n\r\nCan you believe this? Trillions of dollars were lost in the U.S. alone; once again no one on TV reported losing money, and no-one was shorting.\r\n\r\nIt’s a bloody miracle… I have witnessed a market move of biblical proportions “THE IMMACULATE CORRECTION”\r\n\r\nWhat I do know is that a great deal of retail money came into the market at the start of 2018 and as usual “Ma and Pa” investors seem to be hit again. They always enter at the highs and lose and get out at the bottom just before the spike higher once again. I can only guess what it must be like for some retail investors, or any investors for that matter looking at their statements this weekend.\r\n\r\nWhat do I take from this…\r\n\r\nI have blogged about this so many times over the past 5 years or so and you can obviously draw your own conclusions, but, I am now more than ever of the belief after 10 years of trading that in FOREX: -\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">It is all about you</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">You have your machines</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">You have your charts</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">You have your analysis</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">It is you versus the world</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">It is all down to you</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">You will rise or fall on your decisions</p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Whether you are a Fundamental or Technical trader</p>\r\n\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>The media is biased. It only wants to promote “GOOD NEWS” because “BAD NEWS” does not get advertising revenue.</li>\r\n 	<li>Banking analysts SELL their latest book. They do this whether it’s the right thing to do or not.</li>\r\n 	<li>Twitter feeds and other Social media can be a very dangerous place to ascertain quality data.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThe CORRECTION has happened. The unwinding will go on for some time yet as other influences come into play. The markets were very badly positioned going into NFP and this complacency has been whacked in good old Tony Soprano style.\r\n\r\nWithout doubt, some trading accounts were blown apart and some people lost a ton of cash. On the other side, somewhere somebody must have made a ton of cash shorting?\r\n\r\nWith all the above being said…\r\n\r\nI can guarantee you that following last week there will be a lot of retail investors looking at their statements and weeping.\r\n\r\nAll eyes will be on CPi data this week.<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong> MARKET OVERVIEW – MY THOUGHTS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>ARE CENTRAL BANKS BEHIND THE CURVE? </strong></span></p>\r\nI am a FUNDAMENTAL trader. 90% of the time I trade in the direction of my MICRO views and thoughts.\r\n\r\nObviously, my beliefs are built around the various policies of the Central banks. Their Monetary Statements are crucial to my thoughts along with the day to day economic data.\r\n\r\nMy initial observations are that when times are distressed they are quick to act they are masters of supplying liquidity, masters of trying to stabilize markets, removing uncertainties by promising whatever it takes to try to stabilize matters. The GFC and more recently BREXIT being cases of recent Central Bank intervention to support the general marketplace. Prior to these events, Central Bank governors or Presidents appeared to be wound up very tightly. Almost overnight it seemed that they all took stool softeners, which relaxed them and within what seemed like hours they were flooding the markets with financial accommodation and promises to keep banks liquid.\r\n\r\nWe are now moving away from “accommodation” after the longest period of recovery that I can think of and Central Banks are now moving to a policy of normalization.\r\n\r\nSome are further down this road than others as the world economies recover at different paces.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>FED: In pole position to normalization.\r\nCurrent rate is 1.5%, with 3 or maybe 4 rate hikes this year.</li>\r\n 	<li>BOE: Initially maybe a little reluctant to normalize but now moving up.\r\nCurrent rate is 0.50%, with possibly 2 rate increases this year.</li>\r\n 	<li>BOC: On the road to higher rates. The BOC is data dependent.\r\nCurrent rate is 1.25%, with possibly 2 more rate hikes this year.</li>\r\n 	<li>RBA: Unmoved and unchanged since August 2016.\r\nCurrent rate is 1.50%, however analysts have a hike factored for Q4 2018.</li>\r\n 	<li>RBNZ: On hold with the last change being in November 2016.\r\nCurrent rate is 1.75%, it was believed the next hike would be in 2019. However, the timing may be brought forward into Q4 2018.</li>\r\n 	<li>ECB: On hold with no plans to normalize interest rates this year.\r\nCurrent rate is 0.00%. Q3 this year, news re normalization should be updated to the markets.</li>\r\n 	<li>BOJ: On hold with no plans to normalize.\r\nCurrent rate is negative 0.10%.</li>\r\n 	<li>SNB: On hold with no plans to change.\r\nCurrent rate is negative 0.75%</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nFrom this list of the major USD crosses, it is clear to see that we will be moving to a position of normalization from different places, but they are all from a very low base level.\r\n\r\nMy question is; Are the Central Banks behind the curve?\r\n\r\nLet me use the FED as an example, initially.\r\n\r\nOne of the reasons provided by some analysts over the current stock market sell-off is that following the last good print of the Non-Farm payrolls number and the fact that wages started to accelerate resulting in possible inflation finally appearing, that caused the penny to drop. The FED had said at the end of 2017, based upon their view of the U.S. economy that 3 maybe 4 increases in U.S. interest rates could be taking place in 2018.\r\n\r\nThe markets being complacent ignored this, believing it probably would not happen. Non-farm data was good, the FED speakers that followed revisited the messages posted in 2017 and bond yields started to move. Commodity prices started to follow and then FX started to react very noticeably through the USD (DXY) strengthening.\r\n\r\nFinally, Wall Street must have had a FFS and WTF moment. The rest is as often said, history. We should note, despite the changes in stock market prices lower, this has little or no effect on the economic outlook for the U.S. That message would change when people’s spending habits are seen to change.\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, this is all down to market complacency.\r\n\r\nHowever, having said that, is the FED behind the curve based on the conditions in the U.S. economy?\r\n\r\nFrom my perspective YES… without doubt and the fumbling and dithering by the FED have a part to play in creating an unstable environment. The very primary function that they are entrusted to prevent.\r\n\r\nThe conversations that take place regarding whether members are DOVISH or HAWKISH rumbles on. I have blogged on numerous occasions that Janet Yellen is always a DOVE. Once a DOVE always a DOVE. This means caution, or in my words dithering.\r\n\r\nJerome Powell her replacement as FED chairman has a tough job. Under Yellen and Bernanke, we never saw volatility like we have just seen. On the very day Powell gets sworn in the markets go mental. Can you connect this? I do not think so for the reasons already provided about how this MARKET CORRECTION came about.\r\n\r\nBut the facts are the U.S. economy is in fair shape and confidence is good.\r\n\r\nI would not be surprised that if in March, Powell hits the market with a 0.50% rate hike, following with 0.25% in September and similar again in December. This would send a message and definitely bring the Fed in line with the curve. Doing 0.25% in March and again in June does NOT in my opinion send the correct message of control.\r\n\r\nStock markets are going to correct. As often said, the recent rise in equities over the past few years has been the most hated BULL RALLY in the history of stock market moves.\r\n\r\nIt’s now time to look forward and manage. The FED needs to be the Fed once again and take control. Be assertive, give the message of strength and outline the path forward. Had the FED been more assertive in the first place the rise in bond yields may not have been such a shock to the system.\r\n\r\nMoving away from the FED…\r\n\r\nMark Carney at the BOE is really the only other Central Bank that has to deal with inflation. This issue for Carney, is that he has to deal with the complexities of BREXIT at the same time. Political fumbling’s and a weak power position for Theresa may as UK Prime Minister must keep him up at night.\r\n\r\nHe does not to coin a phrase, have much behind the clock in case of emergency. With interest rates at 0.50% I suppose he can match the ECB at 0.00%!\r\n\r\nUK inflation is receding as the GBP/USD moves higher but cable is pressured at the moment. Above 1.4000, I would imagine gives him comfort as well as the key exchange rate being above that psychological number.\r\n\r\nAcross the English Channel in mainland Europe, the ECB is at 0.00% with QE still in place until at least Q3 this year.\r\n\r\nThere is little to no inflation in the EUROZONE, but the economic data is without doubt improving. More so in Northern Europe than the Mediterranean area, but data is moving to the positive side.\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, the ECB is behind the curve. Mario Draghi, ECB President has a huge, massive, bigly message to deliver without creating uncertainty in the markets. Right now, one could argue the stubbornness of the ECB to properly acknowledge good data and “Face the music” of the markets will come back and bite hard.\r\n\r\nTherefore, in my opinion, one of key functions of Central Banks; to remove uncertainty and maintain stability in the markets is being placed in jeopardy because they do not act fast enough.\r\n\r\nThis opens up a new debate about the data they receive on which to base policy on. Is it good data? Is it timely? Is it accurate?\r\n\r\nThis then leads into the quality, the experience and abilities of those in the senior positions. Do they have what it takes to manage, interpret data and more importantly have the ability to deliver the message? Can they direct effectively?\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>USD SUPPORT and RESISTANCE with my BIAS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/TCHART-09022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-10954\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/TCHART-09022018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1020\" height=\"884\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE PREMIUM SERVICE TRADING SUMMARY:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\n(Incorporating the last 5 PREMIUM SERVICE TRADES)\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/PS-SUMMARY-09022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10945\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/PS-SUMMARY-09022018-1024x863.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"863\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(This section is for PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS ONLY)\r\n\r\n<u>5.1. TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\nWhat a week that was. I am very annoyed, but more frustrated with myself that I did not exit on the BOE and re-set the POSITION TRADES. Not doing that has meant that I am now carrying large contingents forward. It is part and parcel of LONGER-TERM POSITION TRADING but its rather annoying knowing I could have taken some positions away. The saving grace is that position sizes are small, but the sea of RED is not motivating.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nThe BLOODBATH in equities will, in my opinion, continue for some time still.  The next thing will be an announcement of a BEAR MARKET.\r\n\r\nThe correlations are still off. RISK OFF to a point in my opinion. The FX reaction is still a little subdued. I expected the JPY to strengthen like crazy and the commodity currencies to fly. It simply hasn’t happened… so far.\r\n\r\nI have been taking some pips here and there out of the market and that feeling is good, but my positioning is not 100% perfect. Longer-term, I feel comfortable, but I will have to make decisions soon regarding the open positions should they continue to bleed lower. Cash wise it’s NOT a problem. Pip wise its only relevant to monthly reports.  My TRADE PLAN which is my bible comes under threat and this has been my guiding light for several years now.\r\n\r\nThe GBP will revert higher. I am reluctant to close trades, knowing that probably within a week of closing them the GBP will no doubt rally to new highs.\r\n\r\nIf you guys recall, I held HEDGED TRADES last year in the USD/CAD. I tried a couple of times to work out the hedge only to fail. I decided to close them as we were coming to the end of 2017. 48 hours later the 900-pip loss would have been flat. This is at the back of my mind with GBP cross rates,\r\n\r\nJust like the JPY and AUD, the cross rates are not performing. With RISK OFF conditions, the commodity currencies are holding up really well. This is really concerning to me. My thoughts are that this week I may take a step back until I can get some clarity. To be frank all week because of the equity market unwind, the markets have been nothing but a chop fest.\r\n\r\nAlso, and this has stuck with me from last Friday.\r\n\r\nEUR/JPY (FUN849 and MOM023): - The FUN trade triggered in Asian trading the entry was good 133.70 for a limit order entry. I check trades c.11PM-Midnight, it was 12-15 pips positive and in general the basket of open trades looked good. What had been given back after the BOE has now started to reverse…. happy days. At the European open I checked again. Europe was trying to reverse the Asian sell-off and the FUN trades was now negative between 40-50 pips. I decided to cut the trade having had so many JPY trades turn against me of late. It was an exit based on emotional.\r\n\r\nLater, late European/very early U.S. session, it was obvious that the Europeans had failed to keep equities positive and the JPY was strengthening as a result. I opened the screens at my desk and the FUN trade, had I stayed in it was now back at 70-100 pips in profit. I will ignore the expletive here!\r\n\r\nFor the rest of the day up to two hours before the Wall Street close it bounced around in a range. It was a bit of a chop fest session.\r\n\r\nHowever, two hours from the close I had two momentum trades in USD/JPY (MOM018) and EUR/JPY (MOM023) with sell stop entries trigger. The EUR/JPY triggered at 132.80. The range of moves in the S&amp;P and especially the DOW30, 100-point chunks at a time on occasion, brought MOM023 under a whippy / choppy series of moves. In minutes it dipped to 132.00. I placed a protective stop at 132.30 to protect 50 pips. I could not break 132.00 after several minutes of trying. AS equities found a base and bounced so did MOM923, it spiked higher, I banked my 50 pips, but the EUR/JPY spiked over 130 pips off the lows in a few minutes. The EUR/JPY finished the week around 133.30.\r\n\r\nMy point with example is that the market can change very, very quickly. Moves are impossible to plot technically. If anyone could have plotted in seconds Fridays moves with the EUR/JPY, I would like to meet that person. I have a few bottles of water here that perhaps he or she could turn into Corton Charlemagne for me.\r\n\r\nThe commodity crosses can move even faster than the EUR/JPY e.g. 300 pips in GBP/NZD can be eroded in 45 minutes. The markets are so fluid at the moment my RISK is managed. At the moment I am within my TRADE PLAN guidelines. I am just thinking ahead.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.2. SENTIMENT,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nI think that it is fair to say that with a CORRECTION in place the next target for the market makers is to turn that into a BEAR MARKET by attacking the 200 DAY SMA’s.\r\n\r\nFUNDAMENTALLY, I am still happy with my trade directions. I just need the trades to get a move on!\r\n\r\nThere are some silly moves in FX at the moment. The best recent case in point being the CAD jobs data last Friday. The data was really poor. The USD/CAD spiked into resistance and fell back 100 pips and then struggled around 1.2600 most of the day.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/SENTIMENT-09022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10946\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/SENTIMENT-09022018-784x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"784\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.3. THE WEEK AHEAD:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n5.3.1. ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES THAT INTEREST ME:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/ECON-DATA-09022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10941\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/ECON-DATA-09022018-1024x830.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"830\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.2. MY KEY EVENTS ON THIS WEEK’S CALENDAR AND WHY:</u>\r\n\r\nIn no particular order: -\r\n\r\n<u>GBP – CPi &amp; RETAIL SALES:</u>\r\n\r\nInflation data the week after Carney stated on “Super Thursday” that it may go up again, before it resumes its move lower. Despite his statement, if the print is above 2.9%, cable will rally on the basis that the markets will be expecting a rate increase sooner than later.\r\n\r\nRetail Sales numbers are released at the end of the week. They were very disappointing last time around with a negative 1.5% print. This time around expectations are for a positive 0.6% number. Quite a turnaround expected.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>USD – CPi and PPi:</u>\r\n\r\nWhilst CPi is a lagging indicator should the U.S. print come in greater than 0.3% it will add fuel to the existing fire we have with equities at the present time.\r\n\r\nShould producer prices also beat the 0.4% expected we could be heading in for further volatility.\r\n\r\n<u>AUD – JOBS DATA AND PHILIP LOWE SPEAKS:</u>\r\n\r\nThe forecast this time around is for 15.2k. The AUD is trading really heavy. I am still not so sure that a good number would do nothing but allow traders who are out of their shorts to see the rip!\r\n\r\nGovernor Lowe also speaks towards the end of the week. Of late, these have basically been non-market moving events, but you have to be there when a Central Bank Governor speaks out.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.3. HOW I WILL APPROACH and TRADE THE MARKET THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\nI don\'t think I could take another migraine this week.\r\n\r\nIt is a chop fest and moves are mental at times. It has been very difficult to trade, gauge and actually just follow market reasoning.\r\n\r\nI will step back a little next week.\r\n\r\nNext week also takes on a huge additional issue. This weekend, I would imagine that many of the major banks will have their FX teams and strategists in-house looking into the week ahead.\r\n\r\nFollowing my comments here, I have added to this week’s blog the 7 USD major WEEKLY TRADE CHARTS.\r\n\r\nWe have interesting closing weekly candles on all the charts. I have made a few comments on some charts, but all need to be viewed to show the extent of the moves last week. The exception is the USD/CHF, I have used the MONTHLY chart because it shows multiyear trend lines.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nEUR/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/EURUSD-W-10022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10956\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/EURUSD-W-10022018-1024x441.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"441\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/GBPUSD-W-10022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10957\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/GBPUSD-W-10022018-1024x441.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"441\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/AUDUSD-W-10022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10955\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/AUDUSD-W-10022018-1024x441.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"441\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/NZDUSD-W-10022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10958\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/NZDUSD-W-10022018-1024x441.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"441\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/USDCAD-W-10022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10959\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/USDCAD-W-10022018-1024x441.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"441\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/USDCHF-M-10022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10960\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/USDCHF-M-10022018-1024x441.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"441\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/USDJPY-W-10022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10961\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/USDJPY-W-10022018-1024x441.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"441\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>5.3.4. MY “MACRO” TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEK AHEAD:</u>\r\n\r\nMy action plan for the week is: -\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>Add POSITION TRADES to my CORE POSITIONS to ensure that I have set ups positioned at extremes to take advantage of DIPS and RIPS.</li>\r\n 	<li>Establish a medium-term TRADE PLAN with the AUD following the data this week.</li>\r\n 	<li>Formulate a strategy re EUR long and JPY short trades.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5.4 SUMMARY - LONG TERM CORE TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/LTSUMMARY-09022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10944\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/LTSUMMARY-09022018-1024x875.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"875\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.5. CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.5.1. CURRENT LIVE TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/LIVE-TRADES-09022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10943\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/LIVE-TRADES-09022018-1024x997.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"997\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u>5.5.2. CURRENT LIMIT ORDER TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/LIMIT-ORDERS-09022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10942\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/LIMIT-ORDERS-09022018-1024x808.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"808\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.6. FX BROKER NEWS and MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\nOne factor I have noticed is that there are more brokers “coming out”, not from the closet, but from behind the closed doors of their offices and screens offering webinars to try and convert clients and attract new clients.\r\n\r\nTimes must be hard.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE FINAL SHOT:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #165 PREMIUM SERVICE\r\nDATE: 10th February 2018','ARE CENTRAL BANKS BEHIND THE CURVE?','','publish','open','closed','','central-banks-behind-curve','','','2018-02-10 06:53:24','2018-02-10 11:53:24','',0,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?post_type=member_posts&#038;p=10962',0,'member_posts','',0),(10535,1,'2017-12-09 08:58:19','2017-12-09 13:58:19','<strong>\r\n</strong>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 16pt;\"><strong>THE FIRST FEW SHOTS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nI think that it’s fair to say that economic data has a back seat at the moment. It’s all about geopolitical news and the effect of these news items that are driving the markets at the moment. When I say driving, I really mean pushing one way then the other most times without reason.\r\n\r\nThe markets are not as liquid now as they were 12 months ago, and, this is evidenced as we enter periods like now, where it is largely historically recognized that many large institutions are preparing to run down their books into the year-end ready for the start of next year.\r\n\r\nTRUMP and BREXIT headlines have dominated all week. It seems really strange to write that when the past week included U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls.\r\n\r\nTRUMP goes from controversy to controversy, investigation to investigation and the great negotiator is still without a single campaign promise delivered. The latest from the great negotiator was that we had an 11th hour deal to fund the government for two weeks to prevent a shutdown, as once again the debt ceiling was reached. Not out of the woods yet, a permanent solution is required by December 22nd to enable the government to function moving forward.\r\n\r\nYou could not make this up. It is a reality TV program played out in front of the world with the oval office as the studio.\r\n\r\nWith regards to BREXIT, last Friday we had an agreement from Juncker and Barnier that enough progress had been made on phase one of the negotiations that the UK and the EU negotiators could now move to phase two.\r\n\r\nAt what cost?\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>RED LINES &amp; DEADLINES = CAN KICKED DOWN THE ROAD</strong></p>\r\nThe ECB needs success as much as Theresa May with the RED LINES and DEADLINES set by both teams ahead of the EU 27 member states 2017 Christmas party aka December Council Meeting.\r\n\r\nThe ECB therefore did what they are master of… FUDGING, to you and me it’s also known as KICKIN’THE CAN DOWN THE ROAD.\r\n\r\nIt looks like the Irish border issue has been kicked down the road. We were provided with very little detail and this was the stumbling block. All parties, Theresa May (UK PM…by a thread), Michel Barnier (EU Chief Negotiator), Jean Claude Junker (President of the EU Commission), Leo Varadkar (IRISH PM) and Arlene Foster (DUP) placed a positive spin on the fact enough progress had been made but very light on specifics.\r\n\r\nThe fact that both Barnier and Juncker had broad smiles in the press conferences that followed the announcement, makes me think that the UK was screwed. This will no doubt roll on and there will be fallout, I think that’s a given.\r\n\r\nFrom an FX perspective, the trading around the BREXIT agreement was no more than a buy the rumour sell the news event. Cable basically nosedived. After all was said and done it moved over 140 pips lower from the highs at one point.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>NOTE:</u></strong>  With regards to cables move lower, this was more than severe profit taking in my opinion.\r\n\r\nFinally, …\r\n\r\nI picked this up out of my twitter feed last week…. made me giggle.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/TWITTER-NOTE-10122017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10507\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/TWITTER-NOTE-10122017-1024x929.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"929\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 16pt;\"><strong>MY (THE PREMIUM SERIVICE) TRADING LAST WEEK:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nI spent most of last week writing to PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers about how I wanted to reduce RISK ahead of NFP. I am pleased to say, I cut out lots of trades before the monthly lottery day aka NFP! I was very successful in reducing what I call circumstantial RISK prior to the NFP data release. I just had to manage my longer-term positions of AUD/NZD and USD/CAD.\r\n\r\nI did not as I indicated to PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers trade NFP. I find that I only get annoyed and frustrated with NFP moves which linger into and hover over the weekends. This may be more of thing of the past but I just hate the knee-jerk moves and then two/ three hours of a chop fest that follows. It just does not suit my style at all.\r\n\r\nTrading this month so far has been a little strange. I am conscious that I want to reduce RISK heading into the Christmas holidays. This coming week is, in my opinion, the last week of this year with decent liquidity and I do not want to be carrying multiple trades forward or having to manage a huge quantity over the Christmas holidays.\r\n\r\nEconomic and Central Bank data this week makes it a huge week of importance as well. At the same time, I realise that most of my core positions of the USD/CAD and AUD/NZD will be probably be carried forward into 2018. I have a few USD/CAD trades that I will unload next week. I expect my pip net profit for 2017 to lie a little lower than current levels once I cull!\r\n\r\n<u>PERFORMANCE 2017 TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\nDecember 2017 net TOTAL:     +536 net pips\r\n2017 YEAR TO DATE:                +13,319 net pips\r\n\r\nIn sales mode; I am now planning for 2018. I will have live trades through the Christmas and New Year holidays so I will be on twitter and probably email.\r\n\r\nIn 2018, the PREMIUM SERVICE will return with a new TRADE STYLE option for subscribers to consider and the SUBSCRIBER SECTION of the “DRIVE THRU” will be larger with greater emphasis on sentiment and market direction. Therefore, now is a great time to join the PREMIUM SERVICE get familiar and ready to go with the 2018 launch!!\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 16pt;\"><strong>THE FX MARKET PLACE THIS WEEK:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>\r\n<span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">3:1. THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</span></u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/ECON-DATA-10122017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10508\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/ECON-DATA-10122017-1024x985.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"985\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><u>3:2. MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:</u></span>\r\n\r\nThis week I would say is probably one of if not the most important weeks for trading FX in 2017. We should get more than a feeling for direction into early 2018 given the information that should be provided.\r\n\r\nWe have Central Bank interest rate decisions and market commentaries from the FED, ECB, BOE and SNB.\r\n\r\nWe also have, Consumer Prices from the U.S. and the UK, Jobs Data from Australia, Average Earnings Data in the UK plus Producer Prices and Retail Sales data from the U.S. It is without doubt a packed week.\r\n\r\nThe most important part from my perspective however is to hear about any changes in Central Bank monetary policies moving into 2018.\r\n\r\nIn no particular order: -\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP:</u></strong><u> CPi, AVERAGE EARNINGS, RETAIL SALES &amp; THE BOE</u>.\r\n\r\nI do not for a minute believe that Mark Carney or any members of the MPC will be looking to amend interest rates, however, when the BOE announces on Thursday, I do expect that by that time we should have a pretty good idea about the state of the UK economy.\r\n\r\nThere is still inflation in the UK and CPI on Tuesday will give us the nod on whether it has topped out or not. The last reading was 3.0%.\r\n\r\nAverage Earnings is one that will be watched very, very closely. With inflation at 3.0% last time around earnings were lagging at 2.2%. For it to be a HAPPY CHRISTMAS the BOE and the government will at least want the numbers to match or be very close.\r\n\r\nRetail Sales should be positive and a beat. If a country cannot have a good retail sales number leading up to Christmas, it never will.\r\n\r\nInterest rates should remain at 0.50% and the MPC vote at 7-2. Any deviations from these numbers and the cable will be off running around like a headless chicken.\r\n\r\nGiven the “low on details” BREXIT phase one deal completed last Friday, I am once again having mixed views on the GBP.\r\n\r\nThis week’s data is therefore crucial to me moving forward.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>\r\nUSD:</u></strong><u> CPi, PPi, RETAIL SALES and the FOMC.</u>\r\n\r\nI am just not sure what to make of the USD at the moment. My brain tells me one thing and my gut another. I have read a lot of analyst reports for 2018 and there are institutions expecting 3 possibly even 4 further interest rate increases on top of the one due this week, which would take the U.S. FED Funds Rate to 1.50%.\r\n\r\nThis time next year it could be ready to move to 2.50%.\r\n\r\nWhat is at the back of my mind is that there is NO INFLATION around. Last week’s Average Hourlies released at the same time as the NFP data was once again missing signs of inflation.\r\n\r\nThis week CPi needs to beat 0.1% to show that there is some life in the economy vis-à-vis inflation. Producer prices and Retail Sales need to show growth as well. This has been lacking more or less of late. With this as a backdrop I just cannot see multiple rate hikes on the horizon. This must be a fear for the FED moving forward. All this talk of transitory stands for nothing it would appear.\r\n\r\nSo, Janet Yellen has her final Press Conference this week and she will announce a 0.25% rate increase. If the FED does not raise there will be blood!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>EUR:</u></strong><u> INTEREST RATE ANNOUNCEMENT and PRESS CONFERENCE.</u>\r\n\r\nThe final Central Bank announcement of the week is Mario Draghi at the ECB. Fair play to Mario Draghi of late, at all speeches he has watched his “p’s and q’s” very closely.\r\n\r\nIt looks from a trading perceptive that to keep a lid on the single currencies strength below 1.2000 is key objective, both he and the ECB council members will be happy that recent policy initiatives have worked out very well putting a cap on EURO strength.\r\n\r\nI suspect that Draghi will be popping the Dom Perignon should the FED raise rates next Wednesday and the USD strengthen across the board, ahead of his press conference the following day.\r\n\r\nI am expecting a boring press conference and speech from Draghi. Happy Christmas, thanks for coming there are mince pies for everyone at the back of the room type of stuff. But… you just never know with the ECB. There is a history of council members breaking ranks and noting their dissent to undermine Mario Draghi. For this reason, this week, this event cannot be missed.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><u>3:3. USD MAJORS – SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE with BIAS:</u></span>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/TCHART-10122017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10509\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/TCHART-10122017-1024x889.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"889\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><u>3:4. USD – TRADING CHARTS: </u></span>\r\n\r\nMore often than not I will use DAILY CHARTS for my analysis. My commentary and thoughts for each trading pair are above the charts.\r\n\r\nCANDLE ANALYSIS: I have now added my thoughts based on the closing daily candle to the weeks trading.\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n<u>EUR/USD:</u>\r\n</strong>\r\nDAILY CLOSING CANDLE: BULLISH\r\n\r\nThe single currency has been in sell mode this past week, with USD strength returning to the markets ahead of the anticipated rate increase from the FOMC this coming Wednesday.\r\n\r\nSupport at 61.8% Fibonacci level of 1.1701 looks to be acting like a “Star Trek” tractor beam sucking the pair lower. I see no reason why this trend lower should stop in the run up to the FOMC. Below 1.1701, the horizontal support / resistance level around 1.1650-60 is next up. This could be a great level ahead from which a reversal could start.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/EURUSD-D-10122017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10519\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/EURUSD-D-10122017-1024x534.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"534\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP/USD:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nDAILY CLOSING CANDLE: VERY BEARISH\r\n\r\nRight now… I am not sure that whatever pattern or measured move, pivot point, Fibonacci level etc. you think about or can see on a chart means too much for the next few days. This pair will be driven by political news rather than economic news or technical data.\r\n\r\nLooking at the chart below, 1.3340 looks to have been an area where buyers and sellers have come together in the past to compete over directional control.\r\n\r\nRecently, I had been long this pair and quite bullish looking forward. After the BREXIT phase one deal (of sorts) I think there are so many questions unanswered that it is hard to remain bullish. The uncertainties surrounding the BREXIT to a large extent still remain, and frankly when you consider arriving at stage one “the easy way” has been like drawing blood from a stone… The next phase includes trade agreements so it can only be harder in my opinion.\r\n\r\nWe have a bull flag on the chart but I just cannot take it seriously at the moment.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/GBPUSD-D-10122017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10520\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/GBPUSD-D-10122017-1024x534.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"534\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>AUD/USD:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nDAILY CLOSING CANDLE: BEARISH\r\n\r\nWe have a double top pattern in play.\r\n\r\nFundamentally some comments from the RBA make me think that the bottom may have been in around the 0.7500 level. But last week on great data the AUD/USD was rejected at 0.7640 and now following USD strength we have slipped below the 0.7520 level, and broken back to re-test.\r\n\r\nThis means in usual trading conditions that the double top measured move should be in play down to 0.7420.\r\n\r\nPersonally, in my opinion the markets are twitchy at the moment, at times brutal and commodity currencies have been acting independently of the EUR/USD so I am not convinced that this move will happen.\r\n\r\nObviously, a break back above 0.7520-40 places the move in doubt.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/AUDUSD-D-10122017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10518\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/AUDUSD-D-10122017-1024x534.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"534\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>NZD/USD:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nDAILY CLOSING CANDLE: BEARISH (INVERTED HAMMER)<strong><u>\r\n</u></strong>\r\nIf you like to play “ping pong” you must love this pair at the moment. My thoughts are that we are heading to the John Key low of 0.6600. It just seems to be taking an eternity.\r\n\r\nLast week some words from Grant aka “Frank (Some Central Banks do have them)” Spencer, stopped the Kiwi’s move lower.\r\n\r\nFor now we are range bound 0.6780 to 0.6960.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/NZDUSD-D-11122017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10521\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/NZDUSD-D-11122017-1024x534.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"534\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD/CAD:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nDAILY CLOSING CANDLE: INDECISION (SPINNING TOP)\r\n\r\nBugger…\r\n\r\nI am HEDGED this pair and short some more!!  Sooner rather than later I am going to have to make the TRADE DECISION. I still have capacity before I reach my RISK TOLERANCE limit so I will wait for now, but it annoys me every time I open up the broker account that trades are inside. Maybe its best not to open that broker account!!\r\n\r\nIt looked to me originally that a confluence of Fibonacci levels would have held this pair at 1.2800. Next was 1.2840 and now my thoughts are 1.12910 the recent highs although my fears are that 1.3000 looms overhead….\r\n\r\nBelow 1.2800 gives the bears some optimism moving forward, 1.2750 is definitely greater comfort but around 1.2850 I can only see higher…argh!!\r\n\r\nThe chart below shows the QUAD TOP measured move. That has not yet played out!!\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/USDCAD-D-10122017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10522\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/USDCAD-D-10122017-1024x534.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"534\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD/CHF:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nDAILY CLOSING CANDLE: BEARISH (SHOOTING STAR)<strong>\r\n</strong>\r\nThe BULL FLAG from last week is still in play. However, it’s a nasty closing candle, which indicates a direction change.\r\n\r\nOne has to be cautious here, we are still inside the pennant but the candle indicates a bearish move.\r\n\r\nSUPPORT at 0.9740\r\n\r\nRESISTANCE at 1.0000\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/USDCHF-D-10122017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10523\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/USDCHF-D-10122017-1024x534.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"534\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD/JPY:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nDAILY CLOSING CANDLE: BULLISH<u>\r\n</u>\r\nWith so many investigations surrounding TRUMP and the geopolitical tension with which he is associated, unless you are short this pair I do not think it would be prudent to trade it, no matter how bullish it looks to the long side.\r\n\r\nThe BEAR FLAG is probably too long vis-à-vis the flag pole length and should NOT be taken seriously. I put it there just to show how powerful upward moves can be at a time of so much confusion regarding the U.S. policies at home and internationally.\r\n\r\nBelow 110.80 obviously get bears well in control but that is a long way away now. We have retraced more than the 61.8% off the last high to low move.\r\n\r\nI would leave well alone but for the addicted top pickers the 76.4% Fibonacci at 113.80 may offer a try with an entry short with a tight stop.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/USDJPY-D-10122017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10524\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/USDJPY-D-10122017-1024x534.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"534\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><u>3:5. MY THOUGHTS ON HOW TO PLAY FX THIS WEEK:</u></span>\r\n\r\nThis week is loaded.\r\n\r\nI am probably going to focus more on exiting existing trades than entering new ones. I am not saying that my work for 2017 is complete but with the FED, ECB, BOE and SNB all on the floor this week plus a plethora of inflation data from the UK and U.S. one has to be lighter than usual with trades.\r\n\r\nPLUS: - This week liquidity will be starting to dry up.\r\n\r\nIf I look at the USD, despite all my rumblings earlier in this blog we have the greatest trading directional sentiment alignment of the majors for a long, long time. That said, personally for the most part, I am going to stay away from USD related pairs.\r\n\r\nTrading cross rates with lower liquidity also brings with it greater RISK even if you still reduce your position sizes.\r\n\r\nI expect that there will be more fallout from BREXIT and TRUMPS antics will obviously continue, why would his character change?\r\n\r\nIt sounds like I am closing the doors on 2017. Monday after the first Asian and European sessions of the week, I will review charts but not until then.\r\n\r\nSunday evening when the trading week starts its bound to be BITCOIN this and BITCOIN that as the focus as the futures exchange in the crypto comes on line. I expect things to get very “crunchy” as shorting comes into play.\r\n\r\nPushed on pairs to look at, I would say EUR/JPY, EUR/GBP, EUR/CHF and maybe AUD related pairs.\r\n\r\nJust remember we are in December, you cannot expect as much as if you were trading in say April or May. Trading expectations need to be wound back.\r\n\r\nAs a junkie on BREXIT news I will probably find myself reading lots of Sunday / weekend reviews and reports on what’s next!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 16pt;\"><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS ONLY:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><u>4:1. TRADING REVIEW:</u></span>\r\n<u>\r\n</u><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><u>4:2. SENTIMENT CHART,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:\r\n</u></span>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><u>4:3. TRADING PLANS:</u></span>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><u>4:3.1. TRADING PLAN OVERVIEW THIS WEEK:</u></span><u> </u>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><u>4:3.2.  EXISTING CORE TRADES (PLANS &amp; STRATEGIES)</u></span>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><u>4:4. CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u></span>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><u>4:5. FX BROKER NEWS with their MARKET FEEDBACK:</u></span>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 16pt;\"><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is my own subscriber based Forex support service that offers subscribers my suggested trade set-ups and market commentaries.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><u>5:1. CURRENT 2017 PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u></span>\r\n\r\nPIPS TOTAL DECEMBER TO DATE  2017:       = +536 pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE:                                                      = +13,319 pips\r\n\r\nIn sales mode; I am now planning for 2018. I will have live trades through the Christmas and New Year holidays so I will be on twitter and probably email.\r\n\r\nIn 2018, the PREMIUM SERVICE will return with a new TRADE STYLE option for subscribers to consider and the SUBSCRIBER SECTION of the “DRIVE THRU” will be larger with greater emphasis on sentiment and market direction. Therefore, now is a great time to join the PREMIUM SERVICE get familiar and ready to go with the 2018 launch!!\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><u>5:2. HOW TO SUBSCRIBE TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</u></span>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you’ve read in this blog and should you want to go a stage further and subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE, this can be done on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the Tab SUBSCRIBE HERE.\r\n\r\nSubscribing to the PREMIUM SERVICE is not just about receiving a larger “DRIVE THRU” blog packed with more trading supporting information, my thoughts and ideas. There is much more to a subscription than those things. Check it all out under the tab HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nAlternatively, if you prefer to watch a video recording about the PREMIUM SERVICE, click the link below. You will be directed to a 40-minute webinar presentation entitled “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE”.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: 16pt;\"> THE FINAL SHOTS</span>:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><u>6:1. WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u></span>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you have read in this blog and would like the chance to win a FREE SUBSCRIPTION valued at CAD$150.00, all you need to do is subscribe to my FREE NEWSLETTER (this blog), by adding your email address on my welcome page just below my cube logo at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><u>6:2. CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u></span>\r\n\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #262 FREE NEWSLETTER\r\n10th December 2017\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','RED LINES & DEADLINES =  CAN KICKED DOWN THE ROAD','','publish','open','closed','','red-lines-deadlines-can-kicked-road','','','2017-12-09 08:58:19','2017-12-09 13:58:19','',0,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?p=10535',0,'post','',0),(10877,1,'2018-01-27 07:15:15','2018-01-27 12:15:15','','Limit Orders','','inherit','closed','closed','','9399-revision-v1','','','2018-01-27 07:15:15','2018-01-27 12:15:15','',9399,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/9399-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(10079,1,'2017-09-27 21:50:20','2017-09-28 02:50:20','&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSo, last week may have been my 250th WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU but from my registered subscribers list only 80 of them received the blog direct to their inbox. In fact I discovered that since returning from a short summer vacation from blogging, only the first 80 registered subscribers have been receiving the blog.\r\n\r\nThe reason…\r\n\r\nI switched website hosts from BLUEHOST (who could not maintain my https status due to their system errors) to SITEGROUND who despite a verbal run through of my requirements, have subsequently advised me that only 80 emails can be sent and plug-ins will not work inside my WORDPRESS account to send emails in batches. I thought that things were quiet, I put it down to the time of the year NOT my new hosting partners.\r\n\r\nYou will NOT be surprised to hear that I have been told the email distribution issue is all my fault… the rules are written down somewhere on the SITEGROUND website and my verbal conversation counts for feck all.\r\n\r\nAs a result, and which additionally may provide a better solution, albeit a little timelier from my perspective, I am now using my CONSTANT CONTACT account for 100% of my FREE NEWSLETTER administration and distribution.\r\n\r\nSuffice to say, this discovery and finding a solution to the problem, has been a bit of a distraction from a trading perspective.\r\n\r\nTwo weeks ago, I launched revised subscription options and subscriber PROMOTION at the same time. Part of the launch was to open up for a week the full PREMIUM SERVICE version of the blog to my FREE NEWSLETTER subscribers. On the basis that only 80 would have had the opportunity to see the complete version, I have decided to repeat the process with this week’s “DRIVE THRU’ blog.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nOver the past week or so, I have been preparing for and I am now almost ready to launch a replacement video about trading with me through THE PREMIUM SERVICE. I just need to put two or three hours to one side to get it done and edited. I know this sounds totally stupid but getting the time is a killer and I consider myself brilliant at TIME MANAGEMENT.\r\n\r\nIn addition…\r\n\r\nI mentioned just before the summer break that I was working on some algorithms for trading. I am still not sure how I get these into the PREMIUM SERVICE but these are now ready for further refinement. Again, I just need a couple of hours with my partners on this and then will hopefully be a quick “GREEN FOR GO”.\r\n\r\nBack to trading …\r\n\r\nI have had one of those weeks; distraction and the nagging of hindsight!\r\n\r\nLike every trader, you try your best to leave the woulda, coulda and shoulda’s behind. Hindsight is just a wonderful thing. Nevertheless, I think it was Bernard Baruch who said, “Nobody ever lost money taking a profit”; so with those words fresh in my mind, I will shut up.\r\n\r\nThe pips are starting to accumulate as I head towards my annual net 10,000 pips target. My house move, a month’s vacation to Australia and New Zealand plus my summer break are all in the rear-view mirror now. If you are considering joining the PREMIUM SERVICE no better time than the present.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>I am on my charge to reaching 10,000 pips before the year end. There are risks attached but I beat my 10,000 pips target in 2014, 2015 and 2016, no reason why I can’t do it again to make 4 years in a row (Check it all out on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the tab HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE).</li>\r\n 	<li>I have a great new subscriber promotion to the PREMIUM SERVICE offer available (Full details in Section 4 of this blog and on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the FX PROMOTIONS tab).</li>\r\n 	<li>My buddies at VANTAGE FX are ready for you if you don\'t have a great broker or you want to add a separate broker for PREMIUM SERVICE trades (Just click the link to VANTAGE FX on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> ).</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nFinally, in this section and I should initially mention it here…\r\n\r\nYou will see from the title of this week’s blog; I have had as far as many of you are probably concerned “A Hallelujah Moment”. I will go into my reasons for my 360-degree turnabout in “THE SOAPBOX” later in the blog in section 5.\r\n\r\nFor those regular followers; I think I had a “nose-bleed” moment when I decided I was going long the cable. It still does not feel quite right having been bearish for 15 months.\r\n\r\nOn the Thursday evening after the BOE Super Thursday, I wrote to PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers telling them that I was now going to change sides and because we are entering the weekend and the fact that North Korea had just launched another missile test, I would look for long GBP trades over the weekend’s charts and start posting trades early this week.\r\n\r\nWTF, as quoted by one of my long-time subscribers “Yer man Gertjan Vlieghe a BOE MPC member somehow read your tweet and decided this was enough to send the cable higher without you”. Very funny. Cable soared through 1.3600 over 220 pips range on the day without the US session. I was asleep through the plough higher from the 1.3400 break out level.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> LAST WEEK – MY TAKE ON SOME KEY EVENTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIn no particular order, here is what floated my boat last week.\r\n\r\n<u>GBP: UK AVERAGE EARNINGS INDEX &amp; “SUPER THURSDAY”. </u>\r\n\r\nI will be going through these headlines later in Section 5 - “THE SOAPBOX” section of the blog.\r\n\r\n<u>USD: INFLATION DATA.\r\n</u>\r\nPPi – dreadful and the USD rallied.\r\n\r\nCore CPI and CPi - Core CPi came in line with expectations and regular CPi was a beat. The USD rallied, sold off, rallied, sold off, rallied and basically it chopped its way throughout Thursday. It was probably not helped by a possible North Korean missile launch news wire.\r\n\r\nCore Retail Sales and Retail Sales – Poor data. Retail Sales was -0.2% against a positive 0.1% and Core Retail Sales 0.2% against 0.5% expectations.\r\n\r\nZero inflation is evident in the Us markets. Demand through Retail Sales has taken a nosedive. It all looks a difficult time for Janet Yellen this week. What has the FED policy done vis-à-vis getting the US economy back on track?\r\n\r\nHere’s a thought…\r\n\r\nAt the FED Press Conference this week. Announce that the poor recent data was due to the weather and that it’s simply transitory as the underlying data supports the current FED policy!\r\n\r\nMy thoughts are US data is much the same as always. If we see good data all I read is FED TO RAISE RATES IN DECEMBER or if we see poor data FED NOT GOING TO RAISE. This is all I see now. I think I have grown so accustomed to this bollocks I do not really read it anymore and I skim the document.\r\n\r\nI think that as traders, we should just react to whatever Janet Yellen says. Everything else is just noise from people who know about as much about what is on the minds of the FOMC as Ozzy my boy Labrador about the FED’S intentions.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>3.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/ECON-DATA-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10007\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/ECON-DATA-17092017-1024x761.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"761\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3.2: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVEL:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10008\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-17092017-1024x852.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"852\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3.3: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:</u>\r\n\r\nThe FOMC is the standout this week. However, there are couple of other bits and pieces that have caught my eye.\r\n\r\nHere are my picks of the upcoming week.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD:</u></strong>  Janet Yellen is back on the stage again. Everything about this Press Conference and Rate Statement is only going to be about two subjects: -\r\n\r\nFirstly, when is the FED going to raise rates again. Before the end of 2017 or spill it over into 2018?\r\n\r\nSecondly, will she provide updates about the FED reducing the size of its balance sheet. By how much and when will they start.\r\n\r\nFrankly, I do not think that the rest matters. She will drone on giving us waffle for a good 15-20 minutes, but at the end of the day, in my opinion its only about the above two points. You will see and hear media account executives asking the same questions 50 different ways to let their managers know that they turned up and weren’t “bunking off”, but at the end of the day it could be all over in a “Wham Bam Thank You Mam” 10 minutes maximum and everyone could be down to the pub after 20 minutes writing their pieces.\r\n\r\nThe drama unfolds at 2PM EST and the Press Conference at 2:30PM EST on Wednesday.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP</u>: </strong>On the back off the HAWKISH BOE last week we have Retail Sales this Tuesday. I can see it now on twitter. BOE to definitely hike in November as Retail Sales beat, or, BOE rate hike this year in question as UK Retails sales miss.\r\n\r\nFor Carney to do a complete u turn is not unheard of.\r\n\r\nIf ever you go to lunch with him, beware if you only have one hour for allocated, as he is so indecisive about his choices, you may end up eating nothing or eating alone. Allegedly, Carney cannot make up his mind what to eat and when he does he keeps changing his mind.\r\n\r\nIt is so bad that in local restaurants, close to the Threadneedle Street area of London that are known to accommodate BOE employees they have alternative Mark Carney menus. They include a clause “Mr. Carney, once you have decided upon your choice of food from our menu you cannot change your mind. Regretfully forward guidance is believed and 100% adopted by our chefs. The direction you have chosen is final”\r\n\r\nDo not be surprised if Carney has you brain in a fecking twist up to the end of this year. He is the master of changing one’s mind. If it were an Olympic sport he would win the GOLD MEDAL.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>CAD</u></strong>: I am a buyer of CAD$ and I am adding to positions, taking profits here and there as the markets chop back and forth. This week we have CPI and Core Retail Sales, this inflation data will be key for the BOC vis-a-vis another interest rate hike before the end of 2017.\r\n\r\nThe economic data from Canada recently has been really good just the odd bit of mixed data, like the Employment numbers when the mix between Full and Part Time jobs was skewed.\r\n\r\nIf this week’s data does NOT rule out another BOC rate hike, I will be adding more positions to my CORE CAD position.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>NZD</u></strong>:  It is the New Zealand 2017 General Election this Friday. I am generally bearish the Kiwi; however, I believe it would be sound to wind back trades ahead of the result. I have already started this with PREMIUM SERVICE trades and I will continue this process through the week.\r\n\r\nI would imagine the start of trading next weekend will be the time for volatility on a grand scale if we are going to see big moves.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>4.1: PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber based Forex support service offering my suggested trade set-ups and market commentary.\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nMONTH TO DATE:  +406 net pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE:      +7,062 net pips\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs on my website  <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n<u>4.2: CURRENT SUBSCRIPTION PROMOTION:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/FALL2017-PROMOTION.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9908\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/FALL2017-PROMOTION-788x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"788\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>\r\n4.3: WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nIf you would like to be in the monthly draw to win a “FREE 30 DAY SUBSCRIPTION” to the PREMIUM SERVICE, valued at CAD$150.00, all you should do is subscribe to receive this FREE NEWSLETTER on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nThis can be done as follows: -\r\n\r\nOn my welcome page just below my cube logo is where you complete your subscription.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>4.4: PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:</u><u>\r\n</u>(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.1: TRADING REVIEW, INSIGHTS and SUMMARY:</u>\r\n\r\nWhat a week last week was.\r\n\r\nI was distracted on several occasions with having to be away to take care of my Jeep’s service but more importantly issues with my new webhost regarding bulk email delivery. The only effective workaround is not to use my WordPress connection through my website but to use my database via constant contact.\r\n\r\nFrom a trading perspective, I have changed views with the cable. I have gone into some detail in “THE SOAPBOX”.\r\n\r\nI tweeted last week after the BOE Super Thursday that I would look for GBP trades into this week, as we were into Friday trading session but especially with the missile launches out of North Korea it made sense to wait. I did not, and frankly no-one could have predicted the comments from Gertjan Vlieghe BOE MPC member. He basically sent his own missile under the GBP. His comments are in a different tone from Carney and we should not get too carried away but that detail would not stop the market reaction. It has been an absolute stellar move across the board.\r\n\r\nI added a good total of net +406 pips in the past seven days which is great but it was a difficult choppy week. Ranges are tightening again (GBP pairs excepted). This is what happens when we are about to have a market SHIFT.\r\n\r\nMarket correlations are just not sitting properly. One day they are trusted the next morning when I check charts the previous alignment has drifted apart. The geopolitical tensions have a great deal to do with this as this directly affects safe havens such as GOLD, plus the JPY and CHF currencies. I must mention though after the missile launch last Thursday, my reaction was complete caution, the market was to shrug it off within a couple of hours. Something is going to give with this and it will be ugly when it happens.\r\n\r\nThe geopolitical events when added to the changes taking place with Central Bank policy throughout the world is also fueling the uncertainties, correlation issues and non-alignments across markets. Central bank uncertainties on future policy timing (FED and ECB), the dovish approach in general changing into a hawkish policy approach (BOC and BOE) and uncertainties in delay by trying to maintain a neutral policy stance over a more hawkish stance (RBA and RBNZ).\r\n\r\nAdd all these factors together and its quite a mixing bowl of ingredients. I am just not convinced on everything FX at the moment, I am fearing the worse. I know that I am slow and steady at this but so much complacency to me is just mental.\r\n\r\nBack to trading…\r\n\r\nLooking forward with trades, I will continue to press forward building a CORE CAD POSITION. Obviously short term NZD/CAD due to election will be restricted, CAD/CHF and CAD/JPY I will watch more closely than before vis-a-via flight to safety. In addition, given the situation with cable I think that GBP/CAD could be tougher unless we see a USD/CAD fall into the 1.1800’s.\r\n\r\nThe CORE NZD position will have to take back seat until the election is over. Friday last week my AUD/NZD took a beating, but as you know for the last 2 years I have been basically long this pair, it is have given some great returns and I will stick with it. My total position size a sizeable broker account is only 40% of a full-sized position. I could ride this pair substantially lower beyond its monthly ATR on STOP LOSS levels, if required, and still not exceed my risk parameters.\r\n\r\nI need to see the election outcome and reaction before committing more trades. My plan this week it to exit NZD related trades ahead of the vote.\r\n\r\nWith regards to the single currency, I am looking to build a CORE LONG POSITION with the EUR. As you know I have started with EUR/USD, to which I will add more set ups and I need to look at the cross rates this week and add. I have a EUR/CAD short that I entered on a SELL STOP below previous good support. It has given me a nasty rebound spike higher. I extended the STOP to stick with this pair as will follow USD/CAD moves. Annoyingly at the moment the USD/CAD is consolidation before resuming its move lower with the trend. Bounces have been minimal so far.\r\n\r\nI have made many references to cable. I will be posting several pullback entries from the get go this week.\r\n\r\nThere will be quite a bit of LIMIT ORDER activity in the early part of the week.\r\n\r\nWe have the FOMC this week as you are aware, it is the draw of the news events. As you have seen, I have adjusted my entry tactics more of late to using momentum as a means of trade entry by using BUY STOPS and SELL STOP orders. These are NOT my preferred means of entering trades but they are working more times than not. I will continue with these for the time being, they should be of use around the FOMC.\r\n\r\nWhilst I am very positive on my trading to obtain results at the moment I do have market concerns as you know and I have raised them again in the blog. I will try tot to get SPOOKED but we ready for mass exits of trades should the ARMAGEDDON situation arise.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.4.2: MARKET SENTIMENT:\r\n\r\n<u><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/SENTIMENT-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10009\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/SENTIMENT-17092017-688x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"688\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.3: USD: MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS with TRADING CHARTS:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10008\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-17092017-1024x852.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"852\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n\r\nPlease note that now that these charts are PREMIUM SERVICE subscriber only, I am now able to have them focused to existing trades and limit orders as well as future intentions.\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>EUR/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/EURUSD-D-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10019\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/EURUSD-D-17092017-1024x511.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"511\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/GBPUSD-W-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10020\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/GBPUSD-W-17092017-1024x511.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"511\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/AUDUSD-D-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10018\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/AUDUSD-D-17092017-1024x511.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"511\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/NZDUSD-D-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10021\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/NZDUSD-D-17092017-1024x511.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"511\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCAD-D-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10022\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCAD-D-17092017-1024x511.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"511\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCHF-D-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10023\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCHF-D-17092017-1024x511.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"511\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\n<u><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDJPY-D-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10024\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDJPY-D-17092017-1024x511.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"511\" /></a></u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.4: EXISTING &amp; POTENTIAL CORE TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\nBasically, I am bearish the CAD and NZD and the two currencies are dominating my thoughts, trades and limit orders at the moment.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE CAD:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nCurrently, I am live the following: -\r\n\r\nCAD/CHF – long\r\nUSD/CAD and EUR/CAD – short\r\n\r\nPlus: - I have SELL STOP limit orders and standard limit orders in position for the USD/CAD.\r\n\r\nI am adding on pullbacks and getting prepared. I see the BOC raising once more this year as they take aim at the housing bubble and personal lending increase’s.\r\n\r\nI am still targeting much lower levels sub 1.2000 with the USD/CAD. This level if broken should drag all CAD pairs stronger.\r\n\r\nA Couple of weeks ago, ScotiaBank released its latest batch of currency targets and thoughts vis-à-vis the markets. It has another rate hike in the mix for Q4 2017 and two more in 2018. If they were all 0.25% rate increases, that would make a grand total rate of 1.75% by the end of 2018.\r\n\r\nIt is a brave call, but I can see it as well given the fundamentals.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: Is to add more USD/CAD trades this coming week and to continue to build a CORE SHORT POSITION that enables me to add to and take pips and $$$ from trades as the CAD strengthens.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE NZD</u></strong>:\r\n\r\nCurrently I have several live long AUD/NZD trades and a NZD/CHF short trade.\r\n\r\nPlus: - One more long AUD/NZD limit order trade, a NZD/JPY short limit order and a EUR/NZD long limit order trades waiting in the wings.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: I am going to reduce NZD exposure this week given the fact that the New Zealand General Election takes place on Friday. I will then look at the market sentiment next week to review my future plan.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE EUR</u></strong>:\r\n\r\nEUR/USD: I have placed multiple LIMIT ORDERS based initially on my thoughts that we would see a larger pullback with the single currency from its break above 1.2000. this materialized only as far as 1.1840.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: I am going to look at adding more LIMIT ORDER set ups over the coming days. I still believe that the EUR/USD is going back towards 1.3000. The rhetoric out of the ECB has been calming, but it is questionable that the market is believing anything that comes out of Frankfurt at the moment.\r\n\r\nI will also look at some EUR crosses once again.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE GBP:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nNothing is in position yet. I believe that there will be some excellent pullback opportunities to enter GBP related trades across the board and I will be looking for these opportunities this week. The only pairs that I am uncertain about are GBP/CAD and GBP/CHF. However, all other crosses should have great potential.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.5: PREMIUM SERVICE – CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE - LIVE TRADES:\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/LIVE-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10011\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/LIVE-17092017-839x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"839\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\nCURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE – LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/LIMIT-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10010\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/LIMIT-17092017-967x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"967\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE SOAPBOX:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>\r\nCARNEY COMES OUT OF THE CLOSET\r\n</strong><strong>(BOE NOW HAWKISH)</strong></p>\r\nOn BOE “Super Thursday” last week interest rates remained on hold but the HAWKISH tone of the Monetary Policy Statement sent the cable on a tear.  Later in the day Mark Carney (BOE Governor) was on the wires fueling the statement content further by openly stating that the next move higher in cable would be upwards and sooner than expected.\r\n\r\nHaving moved about 150 pips on the statement release, Carney’s added comments only placed about another 40 pips on top. It was the comments the following morning (Friday) by BOE MPC member Gertjan Vlieghe, who came out and stated that the increase would be soon and more than a one and done which Carney had intimated the prior day. These comments sent the GBP/USD above 1.3600.\r\n\r\nFrom 1.3150 to 1.3600 (450 pips) in basically 24 hours was what you call a substantial shift in sentiment and a stellar move.\r\n\r\nThe comments from Carney, that he has finally let go of the dovish sentiment and admitted a hike was required after months of denial has brought him out of the closet and the dove has now turned hawk.\r\n\r\nBy coincidence upon receipt of the comments from the BOE, but with no closet involved, I have also changed my GBP bias. I am no longer bearish cable in the short / medium term. I am bullish primarily because with cable above the 1.3450 - 1.3500 levels we are now in a bullish trend. The market is now focused on BOE interest rates rather than the political gaffs surrounding BREXIT.\r\n\r\nNow look…\r\n\r\nI still have massive BREXIT reservations and concerns. Theresa May’s government’s handling of the BREXIT negotiations appears poor and not planned. The Tories have a paper-thin majority in the House of Commons.\r\n\r\nHowever, even with this backdrop it looks like that even without a single BREXIT agreement reached and mass confusion reigning over the negotiations, UK households are going to have more cash pressures placed upon them.\r\n\r\nPersonally, I think that this rate increase should it happen is a recipe for disaster. Never trust accountants in deciding these matters. I have said it before, these pen pushing, desk sucking, jotter blotters do not get out much, they live, breathe and survive on historic data and do NOT take into consideration facts in the reality of the present day.\r\n\r\nYou can bet your bottom dollar that any rate increase will be 100% passed on the mortgages and credit card debt. Households that are currently feeling the effects of inflation are about to get a kick in the nuts as living costs are about to move higher. Look out for defaults on loans, mortgages etc. on the increase in the coming months and for “Vlieghe” to intimate multiple interest rate hikes was reckless as it could start something more than just defaults.\r\n\r\nI know some of you will think that the mere fact that the GBP/USD exchange rate is increasing that this is deflationary, and, I agree, but it is a year away at least to feel the deflationary effect. The debt default issues are bubbling under right now beneath the surface prior to adding more pressure through interest rate increases.\r\n\r\nIn addition, do not forget trade will be effected by rate increases. The balancing act is a difficult one to maintain but I am astonished that the pen pushers have gotten their way. Given all the uncertainties on the economy and with BREXIT I would have ran with higher inflation in Q2 2018.\r\n\r\nThere are still a couple of “not sures” emanating from the BOE statement and comments that followed.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Slow rate increases like the FED?</li>\r\n 	<li>Tapering through Balance Sheet reduction of the QE program when will this commence?</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThere is a BOE inflation report due in November, this looks like the date for the first rate hike. So, we do not have detail but the markets have basically already started to price in a 0.25% rate increase.\r\n\r\nWhilst I can see the move by the BOE and the sentiment change, I can also see the other side. This is a risky decision if they go ahead.\r\n\r\nStarting Monday I will be hunting down GBP long trades based off pullbacks through Fibonacci retracements. All GBP pairs are overbought, EUR/GBP oversold, but there will be some great trading opportunities in the near term to take advantage of.\r\n\r\nThe BOC obtained almost $0.13 cents on their move higher, if cable were to match this, it would be close to 1.4450.  Whilst I cannot see that given the money flows I can see a challenge of 1.3870 the 61.8% retracement from the pre Brexit June 2016 highs (1.5034) to the December 2106 lows (1.1994).\r\n\r\nWhat happens now if we have a catastrophic BREXIT announcement or a leadership battle in the Tory party or another election is called in the next couple of months?\r\n\r\nInteresting times ahead.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #147 PREMIUM SERVICE VERSION\r\nSeptember 17th, 2017\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','CARNEY COMES OUT OF THE CLOSET','','inherit','closed','closed','','10025-revision-v1','','','2017-09-27 21:50:20','2017-09-28 02:50:20','',10025,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/10025-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(10080,1,'2017-09-27 21:53:50','2017-09-28 02:53:50','&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nA nice start back to full-time trading.\r\n\r\nA great first week back with +325 pips being banked. What is annoying is that I let over 150 pips or so fall through my fingers…argh!!\r\n\r\nLike every trader, you try your best to leave the woulda, coulda and shoulda’s behind. Hindsight is just a wonderful thing. Nevertheless, I think it was Bernard Baruch who said, “Nobody ever lost money taking a profit”; so with those words fresh in my mind, I will shut up.\r\n\r\nThe pips are starting to accumulate as I head towards my annual net 10,000 pips target. My house move, a month’s vacation to Australia and New Zealand plus my summer break are all in the rear-view mirror now. If you are considering joining the PREMIUM SERVICE no better time than the present.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>I am on my charge to reaching 10,000 pips before the year end. There are risks attached but I beat my 10,000 pips target in 2014, 2015 and 2016, no reason why I can’t do it again to make 4 years in a row (Check it all out on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the tab HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE).</li>\r\n 	<li>I have a great new subscriber promotion to the PREMIUM SERVICE offer available (Full details in Section 4 of this blog and on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the FX PROMOTIONS tab).</li>\r\n 	<li>My buddies at VANTAGE FX are ready for you if you don\'t have a great broker or you want to add a separate broker for PREMIUM SERVICE trades (Just click the link to VANTAGE FX on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> ).</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nGeopolitical themes still rule like an iron fist hovering over the markets. Kim Jong-Un has still not bent the knee, although “THE DONALD” has wound back his rhetoric thank God. Speaking last week after visiting the devastation caused by “HARVEY” he appears to have pushed China to act to give North Korea a good slapping.\r\n\r\nTwo visits into Texas, however, I am not sure we will see “THE DONALD” down in Florida for a while at least until after the winds of hurricane “IRMA” have died down and moved off to sea. Could you imagine the cost of the US Navy trying to locate his syrup somewhere in the Atlantic?\r\n\r\nJoking aside and not ignoring the tragic human costs of these storms, the financial cost coupled with basic turmoil within the TRUMP administration, the lack of relationship between the White House and Republicans and now deals being done between the White House and the Democrats feed a giant WTF in <strong>BOLD</strong> font size 144.\r\n\r\nDo we have a “FREELANCE” presidency in the U.S.?\r\n\r\nThink about it.\r\n\r\nThe Republicans in Washington have been in opposition for 8 years. They control both houses of legislature, yet they so in dispute with each other they cannot organize themselves to pass a single election promised piece of law. Republicans appear to be nothing more than self-serving career politicians that cannot unite on a single policy and they have control of both houses… they could really motor on.\r\n\r\nThe Democrats are not much better. Still whining on about losing the election to TRUMP. They have adopted a policy of non- agreement, zero partisanship. They have not sought out a leader to challenge at the next election. All they do is moan TRUMP this and TRUMP that. When the next election comes around they will have no one effective to stand because of their blinkered approach on disruption rather than being solution focused. I see this all-over Facebook and Twitter. Nothing has been learned since the Hillary Clinton elitist approach near the end of the 2016 campaign was poo-pooed by the unsullied.\r\n\r\nSo, TRUMP’S move to by-pass the Republican shambles and do a deal with the Democrats over linking the debt ceiling to the Hurricane costs was either a brilliant strategic manoeuvre and a clear demonstration of his will to get things done and by-pass the party machines, or, it was a nail in the coffin for all his election promises ever being fulfilled.\r\n\r\nWhat it has done in my opinion is solidify his base support. It shows a clear desire to get stuff done.\r\n\r\nWill this be the first of many such moves?\r\n\r\nThe American system encourages dysfunctionality and that it basically what we have seen since 9-11 in American politics. Watch this space.\r\n\r\nInteresting news…\r\n\r\nJanet Yellen’s deputy at the FED, Stanley Fischer is stepping down next month for personal reasons. If Yellen decides enough is enough and does not carry on next January, we could have a new look FED in place…. a TRUMP FED.\r\n\r\nMy thoughts are mixed for the markets, could this mean any year end hike is off based upon the fact the “old guard” would step aside and let the “New kids on the block” decide upon future policy? This point will no doubt be debated heavily in the coming weeks.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> LAST WEEK – MY TAKE ON SOME KEY EVENTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIn no particular order, here is what floated my boat last week.\r\n\r\n<u>EUR: ECB PRESS CONFERENCE. </u>\r\n\r\nMario Draghi, God love the poor fecker… He tried his best with a straight face to try and convince the markets that he could sell them a DOVISH MONETARY POLICY STANCE, whilst at the same time PURSUE A TIGHTER MONETARY POLICY… yup, good luck with that. The ECB Press Conference was billed as being a circus act and Barnum’s and Billy Smart’s would have been delighted as it ticked all the boxes.\r\n\r\nSo, what were the takeaways from Draghi?\r\n\r\nQE to run at €60B per month until December meeting or beyond if required.\r\nEconomic outlook broadly unchanged.\r\nExpansion solid. Broad-based.\r\nFX volatility is a source of uncertainty and requires monitoring.\r\nExpansion not yet translated in Inflation trend.\r\nInflation modest tick-up but still subdued.\r\nSubstantial accommodation still needed.\r\nReady to increase QE if outlook not favourable.\r\n2017 GDP now at 2.2% versus 1.9% seen in June.\r\n2018 GDP unchanged at 1.8%.\r\nHeadline inflation to dip into the year end 2017.\r\nUnderlying inflation to rise gradually over the medium-term.\r\nRecovery is base for confidence that inflation will gradually rise.\r\nRecovery remains dependent on Monetary policy.\r\nConsumption good because disposable income is rising.\r\nExchange Rate not a policy target\r\nWill have to take FX into account in future policy decisions.\r\n\r\nYada, yada, yada, blah, blah and bollocks ….. believe what you want from the above list of bullets I scribed from his speech and Q&amp;A session.\r\n\r\nMost of the above points are open to interpretation to be frank with you, and, it very much depends upon which side of the fence one sits.\r\n\r\nDraghi had a job to do, which was basically put off the markets until October when more data is available and the normalization including Tapering timetable will be discussed.  The ECB has an annoying and frustrating habit of “can kicking issues down the road”. Do NOT be surprised if in October we get 50% of the story and a delay to December.\r\n\r\nIn addition, and in true ECB style, on Friday last week the day after the “circus”, lesser known Governing Council member Philip Lane, Governor of the Irish Central Bank stated the following: - “The accommodative stance will remain until convincing evidence of inflation is seen”. This could be 2018 in full as the strengthening single currency is taking inflation out of the system. Draghi and governing council want the single currency on its arse. Let me re-iterate here lies the problem facing the ECB.\r\n\r\nMeanwhile back in the real world…\r\n\r\nI need to pick a level to enter long the EUR/USD in the coming days. Draghi said / did nothing to stop me thinking 1.3000 is on the way. My big question is how will he tackle zero inflation because the strengthening single currency will cancel out inflation inside the EUROZONE, well a great deal of it anyway.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>CAD: BOC RATE ANNOUNCEMENT and EMPLOYMENT DATA.\r\n</u>\r\nHoly Mother of God; I never thought that BOC Governor, Stephen Poloz had it in him. Two interest rate hikes back to back. The CAD interest rate now stands at 1.00%.\r\n\r\nThat took the market completely by surprise. The market is obsessed and focused on rate movement’s when there is a press conference.  The CAD was absolutely demolished by over 220 pips (USD/CAD), it bounced back across all pairs but frankly it looks doomed to a sub 1.2000 level soon.\r\n\r\nOut of the last rate increase the BOC got some $0.11 cents move lower in USD/CAD, even if they only achieve a $0.05 move this time the pair would fall to 1.1900. My goal and target is much less than this level.\r\n\r\nJust stepping sideways for a moment vis-à-vis the Canadian Jobs data. It was an overall beat, but the mix between Full and Part-time jobs was very disappointing and the USD/CAD initially weakened on the news. Basically, it remained unchanged. The 1.2000 level remains intact for now. It is however WHEN rather than IF, in my opinion, that this psychological round number will be crushed.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>GBP: BREXIT and MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION DATA.</u>\r\n\r\nBREXIT negotiations appear to be STILL moving along the lines of a west-end farce.\r\n\r\nI am NOT surprised, and neither should you be, we are watching career politicians at work. They only know how to attribute blame; they are simply NOT negotiators or problem solvers. This hangs over the UK like the “Sword of Damocles”.\r\n\r\nThe shambles continues; last week, Theresa May must have had a late-night party with her hangers on, and some numpty must have suggested writing to the FTSE Top 100 companies to ask them to get on board with Tory plans on BREXIT…. WTF. That goes down in the history books as another seemed like a good idea at the time moments. For God’s sake give me a break, even my Labrador Ozzy has more brains than that. Makes you think… doesn\'t it?\r\n\r\nThis letter comes on the back of a piece I read on BLOOMBERG about the UK negotiators perhaps looking for time to conclude the negotiations. What can I say here that even I could be happy with from a controlled language expletive perspective?\r\n\r\nWhat a f**king load of f**king bollocks, these tossers are paid a s**t load of people’s hard earned cash to do a f**king job. They have known the f**king timetable for f**king months. It’s about time they took their heads out of their arses, grew a pair, man up and get the job done to the best of their ability and let the population decide if they are a load of ineffective wan**rs or not when the f**king negotiations are finished.  The people voted over a year ago and f**k all has been done.\r\n\r\nOne Prozac later…\r\n\r\nThis past week or so UK economic data has been very mixed. Markets being markets, experts being experts and analyst’s being analyst’, they are all looking to be “Billy’s” and pick the bottom. If you pick bottoms all you get are smelly fingers. Manufacturing Production numbers came out last Friday morning, it was a beat at 0.5% versus market expectations of 0.3%. The Cable leaped up like a salmon on the good news and this move was exacerbated by continued USD weakness.\r\n\r\nHowever, as I wrote last week despite the bounce in the GBP/USD, which in my opinion is more about USD weakness than cable strength, I remain bearish cable longer-term and I stand by everything I have written in earlier blogs about timings and FX targets. I am still to this day astonished by the continual reference to “HARD or SOFT BREXIT”. For crying out loud; there is NO SOFT BREXIT. The EUROZONE cannot afford a SOFT BREXIT because it could potentially create a CONTAGION.\r\n\r\nI am STILL in the camp that there is a better than 50% probability that NO BREXIT deal will be achieved.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>3.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/ECON-DATA-10092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9970\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/ECON-DATA-10092017-1024x769.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"769\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3.2: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-10092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9971\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-10092017-1024x852.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"852\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3.3: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:</u>\r\n\r\nEconomic data releases this week are a bit thin on the ground but nevertheless I am sure that there will be plenty of fun for those who want to get involved.\r\n\r\nHere are my picks of the upcoming week.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>AUD:</u></strong>  Jobs data this week for the Australian Economy.  This has been a hit and miss number of late. Either a blowout or a bit weird number is produced. I am therefore on the fence here. We have seen big numbers posted for new jobs only to find that the mix of full and part time positions was skewed in favour of part-time.\r\n\r\nLast week on poor data the AUD/USD broke 0.8000 and then 0.8100. So why am I debating the response to good or bad data?\r\n\r\nBasically, the AUD looks a strong currency at the moment and a bigger upside break looks more on the cards than a move lower. This looks on the cards despite the RBA remaining neutral. I must only imagine RBA Governor Lowe is grateful he remained neutral, if he was HAWKISH I think we would be looking closer to 0.8500 at the moment given the way that the DXY has been behaving.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP:</u></strong>  CPi, Retail Sales, Average Earnings Index and the MPC vote with the interest rate announcement. I am in the minority, I know this, but I am still looking at the cable at 1.2000 at the end of 2017. It has spiked higher recently, however, I believe this is more of a move based from the weak USD (DXY) rather than UK economic supporting data.\r\n\r\nBREXIT is a shambolic affair. Theresa May is apparently delivering a major speech on September 21st to parliament on her timetable, negotiating timetable, successes and failures etc. This should be funnier than an episode of Frasier or The Big Bang Theory. The BREXIT successes should have me rolling about on the floor. That will be a short section of the speech if you are in anyway distracted for a second or two you may miss that bit.\r\n\r\nBack to the data dump…\r\n\r\nCPI and Retail Sales will be misses unless tourism boosts these numbers. Disposable incomes have been sharply eaten into with inflation.\r\n\r\nWages have shown signs of life of late but are still not keeping pace with inflation and I expect this to remain the case this Wednesday when the latest numbers are released. This is placing pressure on household disposable income.\r\n\r\nI have heard many rather glib comments from mainly non-UK bodies saying that with UK inflation above the 2% target a 0.25% rate hike won’t make too much of a difference. I hear and I read the comments and my immediate well thought out response is bollocks.\r\n\r\nRate hikes would be passed on at almost double the 0.25% hike onto credit cards, credit lines and overdrafts without any thought by the high-street banks. Much of the already disappearing household disposable income caused by inflation that remains will just be annihilated by an interest rate increase. In my opinion, this would be one of the biggest f**k ups ever by a Central Bank. I just don\'t see it.\r\n\r\nSo, I see Mark Carney, BOE Governor fumbling his way through a no change statement remaining vigilant and accommodative well into 2018.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD:</u></strong> We enter another week in the life of a TRUMP administration. Dysfunctional Washington persists and frankly looking at the US data I am becoming less and less interested as reactions are short lived as the USD is more responsive to twitter and headline news than economic data.\r\n\r\nWe have key inflation data this week. PPi, CPi and view of the consumer via Retail Sales. I would normally say these are crucial numbers for the FED to dissect vis-à-vis Monetary Policy normalization.\r\n\r\nMy thoughts, being a cynical fecker is that the ECB and FED have done a deal to both move in December. The FED will raise again regardless and this will help the ECB from rip roaring to 1.3000 in a few weeks.\r\n\r\nWe have been given a curveball by the FED telling us that they are looking more at its Balance Sheet reduction as a priority over interest rate normalization.\r\n\r\nBack to the data…\r\n\r\nAs long as, PPi and CPi are positive, I believe the markets will be happy enough. Retail Sales will have to match the last print at 0.6% as a minimum in my opinion. Anything less than these bare minimums will send the DXY crashing.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong><strong> </strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>4.1: PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber based Forex support service offering my suggested trade set-ups and market commentary.\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nMONTH TO DATE:  +325 net pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE:      +6,656 net pips\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs on my website  <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n<u>4.2: NEW SUBSCRIPTION OPTIONS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/SUBSCRIPTION-CHANGES-FALL2017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9907\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/SUBSCRIPTION-CHANGES-FALL2017-799x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"799\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u>4.3: CURRENT SUBSCRIPTION PROMOTION:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/FALL2017-PROMOTION.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9908\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/FALL2017-PROMOTION-788x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"788\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u> </u><u>\r\n4.4: WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you would like to be in the monthly draw to win a “FREE 30 DAY SUBSCRIPTION” to the PREMIUM SERVICE, valued at CAD$150.00, all you should do is subscribe to receive this FREE NEWSLETTER on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nThis can be done as follows: -\r\n\r\nOn my welcome page just below my cube logo is where you complete your subscription.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>4.5: PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:</u><u>\r\n</u>(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>4.5.1: TRADING REVIEW, INSIGHTS and SUMMARY:</u>\r\n\r\nWe are now into the closing straight of 2017.\r\n\r\nSeptember has started with a few nice trades generating some nice pips and $$$, although I have left quite a few pips on the table through poor stop management or closing trades too soon. It is very frustrating, but one cannot look backwards, one must look forward towards goals and objectives.\r\n\r\nI am now in the throws of establishing two core positions with the CAD and NZD. The latter took a bit of a slapping last week as USD weakness really got stuck in. In fact, looking back through trades the NZD/USD has been a loss-making trading pair these past couple of weeks with over 200 pips lost on various trades. I still believe it is a short trade on the back of RBNZ comments. We have parliamentary elections on September 23rd and up to this date the NZD currency could be twitchy.\r\n\r\nWe should also bear in mind, our pal and a really decent chap Graeme Wheeler’s tenure as RBNZ Governor ends on September 27th. He is replaced temporarily by Grant Spencer, who is currently the Deputy Governor and Head of Financial Stability. As long as our Grant is not tea-total, the chaps at the Press Conference will love his bones!\r\n\r\nI notice that Barclays Bank has a sell order up to the election on AUD/NZD. Currently, I have 3 x Live trades and one limit order in place. This should be interesting. I see the AUD going to 0.8500 cents in the coming weeks before being pulled back from anything loftier by the RBA so I feel good being long AUD/NZD for the moment.\r\n\r\nThe cable, I am looking for 1.3300 to look at getting short. That\'s it in a nutshell. Until we get there I am not looking at GBP/USD shorts…famous last words. I believe an entry at that level represents around the best value one could get in my opinion.\r\n\r\nThe EUR/USD is a “BUY THE DIP” trade, I am just biding my time for now.<u></u>\r\n\r\n4.5.2: MARKET SENTIMENT:\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/SENTIMENT-03092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9946\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/SENTIMENT-03092017-690x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"690\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>4.5.3: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS with TRADING CHARTS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-10092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9971\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-10092017-1024x852.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"852\" /></a>\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>EUR/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/EURUSD-D-10092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9981\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/EURUSD-D-10092017-1024x527.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"527\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/GBPUSD-D-10092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9982\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/GBPUSD-D-10092017-1024x527.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"527\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/AUDUSD-D-10092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9980\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/AUDUSD-D-10092017-1024x527.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"527\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/NZDUSD-D-10092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9983\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/NZDUSD-D-10092017-1024x527.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"527\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCAD-D-10092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9984\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCAD-D-10092017-1024x527.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"527\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCHF-D-10092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9985\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCHF-D-10092017-1024x527.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"527\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\n<u><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDJPY-D-10092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9986\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDJPY-D-10092017-1024x527.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"527\" /></a></u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.5.4: CORE TRADES, ASSOCIATED NEWS and INSIGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nBasically, I am bearish the CAD and NZD and the two currencies are dominating my thoughts, trades and limit orders at the moment.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE CAD:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nCurrently, I am live the following: -\r\n\r\nCAD/JPY – long\r\n\r\nGBP/CAD and NZD/USD – short\r\n\r\nPlus: - I have SELL STOP limit orders and standard limit orders in position for the USD/CAD and EUR/CAD.\r\n\r\nI have documented this repeatedly. I see the USD/CAD going to 1.1700. This move should it play out should drag all the CAD related pairs with it.\r\n\r\nLast Friday, ScotiaBank released its latest batch of currency targets and thoughts vis-à-vis the markets. It has another rate hike in the mix for Q4 2017 and two more in 2018. If they were all 0.25% rate increases, that would make a grand total rate of 1.75% by the end of 2018.\r\n\r\nThat’s what you call a brave shout.\r\n\r\nIt is also a brave shout without any responsibility for being incorrect or way off the mark.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: Is to add more USD/CAD trades this week and have a CORE SHORT POSITION established that I can add to and take pips and $$$ from trades as the CAD strengthens.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE NZD</u></strong>:\r\n\r\nCurrently I have several live long AUD/NZD trades and a NZD/CAD short trade.\r\n\r\nPlus: - A further long AUD/NZD limit order trade, a NZD/JPY limit order and 2 x EUR/NZD long limit order trades waiting in the wings.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: Is to wait until the timing is good to re-enter NZD/USD short once again and establish a CORE SHORT POSITION.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE EUR</u></strong>:\r\n\r\nNothing is LIVE yet all limit orders but my goal is to start placing strategic entries across several EUR currency related pairs.\r\n\r\nCurrently, I have EUR/USD and EUR/AUD limit orders in position.\r\n<u>4.5.5: PREMIUM SERVICE – CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE - LIVE TRADES:\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/LIVE-TRADES-10092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9973\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/LIVE-TRADES-10092017-869x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"869\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\nCURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE – LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/LIMIT-ORDERS-10092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9972\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/LIMIT-ORDERS-10092017-837x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"837\" height=\"1024\" /></a> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE SOAPBOX:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>\r\nTIPPING POINTS, STRUCTURAL RE-ALIGNMENTS, </strong><strong>MARKET STABILITY and DXY to 87.50?</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nThat\'s quite a lot to take in…\r\n\r\nIt seems like a life time ago, but it was in fact only July when I wrote back to back blogs about the TIPPING POINT and a market STRUCTURAL RE-ALIGNMENT.\r\n\r\nAs a macro, FUNDAMENTAL thinker / trader first I am usually either ahead of the market by varying degrees or sometimes just never there at all as my thought process may never play out the way that I had originally thought for one reason or a combination of reasons.\r\n\r\nRecently, trading or attempting to trade the USD to the long side has been like trying to roll a snowball up hill. Yes, there have been opportunities but they are few and far between. Just looking at the USD Index (DXY) chart below shows that basically since “THE DONALD’S” inauguration the DXY has been on a slide lower.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/DXY-10092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9979\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/DXY-10092017-1024x504.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"504\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe simple fact is that the USD could slip below the current 91.00 level of support, break through the 90.00 psychological number and then maybe take a run at 87.50.\r\n\r\nThis potential move lower sits well with the administrations ideology of a weak USD and a low interest rate policy.\r\n\r\nThe potential moves ahead with the single currency should also fuel this decline in the USD as when the ECB announces its path to interest rate normalization the EUR should strengthen creating further USD weakness.\r\n\r\nThe backdrop to all this conjecture is that Central Banks around the globe all have maintaining MARKET STABILITY as a written or in some cases an unwritten rule.\r\n\r\nThere are so many factors influencing movements in price at the moment MARKET STABILITY appears to be somewhat lost, although to his credit Mario Draghi referenced it on a few occasions last Thursday in his ECB Press Conference. The truth is the markets could not give a rat’s hairy ass about STABILITY when FEAR and GREED are dominating the process, which they are for now.\r\n\r\nThe U.S. has two impending massive natural disasters on its plate, and the threat of war from North Korea. A President who is not trusted by his alleged party of allegiance and also but not surprisingly by the opposition party that are only interested in disruption rather than making the U.S. a better place to live and work, is a recipe for continued uncertainly and total instability. The U.S. is so dysfunctional and so far up its own arse it cannot see what it is doing to itself and it is fast becoming a laughing stock for onlookers around the globe.\r\n\r\nYet, with all this going on, the U.S. stock market is close to its highs. Quite staggering and incomprehensible to myself and possibly a few others.\r\n\r\nSo where am I going?\r\n\r\nLet me get there piece by piece….\r\n\r\nI have often said to new traders something along the lines of the following: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Trading currencies is essentially routine.</li>\r\n 	<li>Routine can be boring.</li>\r\n 	<li>There are classic market alignments and correlations.</li>\r\n 	<li>First thing in the morning when I go to my screens, I check the following charts, these are my LEAD INDICATORS: - DXY, GOLD, OIL, COPPER, S&amp;P, US10YEARNOTE, USD/CAD, USD/SEK, AUD/JPY and USD/JPY. This looks labour intensive and it can be but from my perspective essential background. It does not even allow for the reading material that I go through with coffee each morning.</li>\r\n 	<li>If my alignments and correlations whether they be inter-market or inter-currency are off, I have a RED FLAG.</li>\r\n 	<li>Having completed what I call my market research I look through trading charts, at the same time as checking open trades and limit orders to verify are they still tradeable entries or not?</li>\r\n 	<li>I watch/listen to BLOOMBERG in the background on my iPAD PRO, to listen out for geopolitical news and events that could influence my trading.</li>\r\n 	<li>All this take’s about an hour, but I have found over the past 10 years of trading it works for me. I trade for the long haul. There is a market 5 days a week. I can miss a day if I do NOT like the way the market looks or performs. Why put yourself at RISK? Is not one of a trader’s key goals and objective to MANAGE RISK?</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThis routine is all well and good karma. However, of late it in my opinion the market has become news driven rather than economically driven. This creates a dysfunctional market where correlations do matter but tend to be skewed… RED FLAG.\r\n\r\nCurrency relationships look awkward and no longer aligned to RISK … RED FLAG.\r\n\r\nAll the research in the world means feck all.\r\n\r\nWe are very quickly approaching the TIPPING POINT I referred to back in July. We are about to see the USD drop like a lead balloon and the EUR rip higher. Just the moves lower in the USD and higher in the EUR would cause a TIPPING POINT and a STRUCTURAL RE-ALIGNMENT in the FX market.\r\n\r\nNever mind what influences the Central Banks have, or believe that they have. Most of the Central Banks around the globe related to G7 countries have credibility issues with the markets. The BOE, BOJ, ECB and even the FED to some extent are classics in recent history. When the news is DOVISH / ACCOMODATIVE it’s easy to communicate. However, when turning HAWKISH as those listed have found to their detriment it is much more difficult to effectively communicate and maintain MARKET STABILITY.\r\n\r\nOnly the BOC under Stephen Poloz has delivered his promise quickly and smoothly. The BOC received so much bang for their buck out of two 0.25% rate increases. I realise it’s much easier for a small economy like Canada but it is still a G7 and G10 country.\r\n\r\nI would add the SNB under Thomas Jordan has also been relatively consistent and Philip Lowe having replaced Glenn Stevens at the RBA appears to be very clear and unambiguous with his commentary.\r\n\r\nBack on track…\r\n\r\nMoving to interest rate normalization around the globe will happen and the fact that U.S. is struggling for a multitude of reasons already mentioned means that at the end of this year we could have both the FED and ECB with major announcements at the same time…fluke or by design?\r\n\r\nI believe that the FED has a deal done with the ECB to raise rates in December when the ECB will announce more details about policy normalization. I think October for ECB is a “can kicking” exercise and that December will be the real deal.\r\n\r\nDecember looks primed to start the FX RE-ALIGNMENT but it will not be as volatile if both Central Banks (FED &amp; ECB) go together. December is a great month for releasing data for obvious reasons, holidays, end of year etc. and both Central Banks have back to back meetings.\r\n\r\n13th December – FOMC (FED)\r\n\r\n14th December – ECB – Press Conference in Frankfurt.\r\n\r\nThe G10 Central Bank leaders do talk to each other. I for one would NOT be surprised if a handshake over a glass of red has taken place over timings.\r\n\r\nGiven the desire and concerns over MARKET STABILITY do NOT rule out a coordinated policy announcement ahead of the dates of these meetings to announce change at the same time. It has been done before.\r\n\r\nIt could happen but maybe not.\r\n\r\nAt the end of the day what would the FX world look like?\r\n\r\nI still believe that no matter what is attempted, the USD is on very rocky ground. Fundamentally I cannot see Washington kissing and making up party to party or President to either party so dysfunctionality will remain in place.\r\n\r\nFair value for the single currency even with another 0.25% on the U.S. rate must still be in the 1.3000 range, but it is not about where fair value lies it’s how it gravitates to the level that is the important consideration.\r\n\r\nAt EUR/USD at 1.3000.\r\n\r\nEUR crosses would all be elevated from current levels and the majors would be elevated and re-aligned as well as a consequence.\r\n\r\nThat is when the real fun starts.\r\n\r\nHow will the RBA and RBNZ feel when their currencies are at 0.9000 and maybe 0.8000 levels once again? Competitiveness would suffer unless it was a balanced increase across the board.\r\n\r\nIt is possible that we enter currency wars 2.0?\r\n\r\nTIPPING POINTS, RE-ALIGNMENTS both have consequences and MARKET STABILITY may suffer despite a great deal of effort and planning being introduced, the DXY at 87.50. I do not like using the phrase nailed on, but I just cant see it not happening in the coming weeks.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS:</strong><strong> </strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #146 PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBER VERSION\r\nSeptember 10th, 2017\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','TIPPING POINTS, STRUCTURAL RE-ALIGNMENTS, MARKET STABILITY and DXY at 87.50?','','inherit','closed','closed','','9987-revision-v1','','','2017-09-27 21:53:50','2017-09-28 02:53:50','',9987,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/9987-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(10107,1,'2017-09-29 16:54:57','2017-09-29 21:54:57','','TCHART 01102017','','inherit','open','closed','','tchart-01102017','','','2017-09-30 07:35:07','2017-09-30 12:35:07','',10145,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-01102017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(10106,1,'2017-09-29 16:54:49','2017-09-29 21:54:49','','ECON DATE 01102017','','inherit','open','closed','','econ-date-01102017','','','2017-09-30 07:34:47','2017-09-30 12:34:47','',10145,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/ECON-DATE-01102017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(10083,1,'2017-09-28 03:49:18','2017-09-28 08:49:18','&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSo, last week may have been my 250th WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU but from my registered subscribers list only 80 of them received the blog direct to their inbox. In fact I discovered that since returning from a short summer vacation from blogging, only the first 80 registered subscribers have been receiving the blog.\r\n\r\nThe reason…\r\n\r\nI switched website hosts from BLUEHOST (who could not maintain my https status due to their system errors) to SITEGROUND who despite a verbal run through of my requirements, have subsequently advised me that only 80 emails can be sent and plug-ins will not work inside my WORDPRESS account to send emails in batches. I thought that things were quiet, I put it down to the time of the year NOT my new hosting partners.\r\n\r\nYou will NOT be surprised to hear that I have been told the email distribution issue is all my fault… the rules are written down somewhere on the SITEGROUND website and my verbal conversation counts for feck all.\r\n\r\nAs a result, and which additionally may provide a better solution, albeit a little timelier from my perspective, I am now using my CONSTANT CONTACT account for 100% of my FREE NEWSLETTER administration and distribution.\r\n\r\nSuffice to say, this discovery and finding a solution to the problem, has been a bit of a distraction from a trading perspective.\r\n\r\nTwo weeks ago, I launched revised subscription options and subscriber PROMOTION at the same time. Part of the launch was to open up for a week the full PREMIUM SERVICE version of the blog to my FREE NEWSLETTER subscribers. On the basis that only 80 would have had the opportunity to see the complete version, I have decided to repeat the process with this week’s “DRIVE THRU’ blog.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nOver the past week or so, I have been preparing for and I am now almost ready to launch a replacement video about trading with me through THE PREMIUM SERVICE. I just need to put two or three hours to one side to get it done and edited. I know this sounds totally stupid but getting the time is a killer and I consider myself brilliant at TIME MANAGEMENT.\r\n\r\nIn addition…\r\n\r\nI mentioned just before the summer break that I was working on some algorithms for trading. I am still not sure how I get these into the PREMIUM SERVICE but these are now ready for further refinement. Again, I just need a couple of hours with my partners on this and then will hopefully be a quick “GREEN FOR GO”.\r\n\r\nBack to trading …\r\n\r\nI have had one of those weeks; distraction and the nagging of hindsight!\r\n\r\nLike every trader, you try your best to leave the woulda, coulda and shoulda’s behind. Hindsight is just a wonderful thing. Nevertheless, I think it was Bernard Baruch who said, “Nobody ever lost money taking a profit”; so with those words fresh in my mind, I will shut up.\r\n\r\nThe pips are starting to accumulate as I head towards my annual net 10,000 pips target. My house move, a month’s vacation to Australia and New Zealand plus my summer break are all in the rear-view mirror now. If you are considering joining the PREMIUM SERVICE no better time than the present.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>I am on my charge to reaching 10,000 pips before the year end. There are risks attached but I beat my 10,000 pips target in 2014, 2015 and 2016, no reason why I can’t do it again to make 4 years in a row (Check it all out on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the tab HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE).</li>\r\n 	<li>I have a great new subscriber promotion to the PREMIUM SERVICE offer available (Full details in Section 4 of this blog and on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the FX PROMOTIONS tab).</li>\r\n 	<li>My buddies at VANTAGE FX are ready for you if you don\'t have a great broker or you want to add a separate broker for PREMIUM SERVICE trades (Just click the link to VANTAGE FX on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> ).</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nFinally, in this section and I should initially mention it here…\r\n\r\nYou will see from the title of this week’s blog; I have had as far as many of you are probably concerned “A Hallelujah Moment”. I will go into my reasons for my 360-degree turnabout in “THE SOAPBOX” later in the blog in section 5.\r\n\r\nFor those regular followers; I think I had a “nose-bleed” moment when I decided I was going long the cable. It still does not feel quite right having been bearish for 15 months.\r\n\r\nOn the Thursday evening after the BOE Super Thursday, I wrote to PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers telling them that I was now going to change sides and because we are entering the weekend and the fact that North Korea had just launched another missile test, I would look for long GBP trades over the weekend’s charts and start posting trades early this week.\r\n\r\nWTF, as quoted by one of my long-time subscribers “Yer man Gertjan Vlieghe a BOE MPC member somehow read your tweet and decided this was enough to send the cable higher without you”. Very funny. Cable soared through 1.3600 over 220 pips range on the day without the US session. I was asleep through the plough higher from the 1.3400 break out level.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> LAST WEEK – MY TAKE ON SOME KEY EVENTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIn no particular order, here is what floated my boat last week.\r\n\r\n<u>GBP: UK AVERAGE EARNINGS INDEX &amp; “SUPER THURSDAY”. </u>\r\n\r\nI will be going through these headlines later in Section 5 - “THE SOAPBOX” section of the blog.\r\n\r\n<u>USD: INFLATION DATA.\r\n</u>\r\nPPi – dreadful and the USD rallied.\r\n\r\nCore CPI and CPi - Core CPi came in line with expectations and regular CPi was a beat. The USD rallied, sold off, rallied, sold off, rallied and basically it chopped its way throughout Thursday. It was probably not helped by a possible North Korean missile launch news wire.\r\n\r\nCore Retail Sales and Retail Sales – Poor data. Retail Sales was -0.2% against a positive 0.1% and Core Retail Sales 0.2% against 0.5% expectations.\r\n\r\nZero inflation is evident in the Us markets. Demand through Retail Sales has taken a nosedive. It all looks a difficult time for Janet Yellen this week. What has the FED policy done vis-à-vis getting the US economy back on track?\r\n\r\nHere’s a thought…\r\n\r\nAt the FED Press Conference this week. Announce that the poor recent data was due to the weather and that it’s simply transitory as the underlying data supports the current FED policy!\r\n\r\nMy thoughts are US data is much the same as always. If we see good data all I read is FED TO RAISE RATES IN DECEMBER or if we see poor data FED NOT GOING TO RAISE. This is all I see now. I think I have grown so accustomed to this bollocks I do not really read it anymore and I skim the document.\r\n\r\nI think that as traders, we should just react to whatever Janet Yellen says. Everything else is just noise from people who know about as much about what is on the minds of the FOMC as Ozzy my boy Labrador about the FED’S intentions.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>3.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/ECON-DATA-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10007\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/ECON-DATA-17092017-1024x761.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"761\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3.2: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVEL:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10008\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-17092017-1024x852.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"852\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>3.3: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:</u>\r\n\r\nThe FOMC is the standout this week. However, there are couple of other bits and pieces that have caught my eye.\r\n\r\nHere are my picks of the upcoming week.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD:</u></strong>  Janet Yellen is back on the stage again. Everything about this Press Conference and Rate Statement is only going to be about two subjects: -\r\n\r\nFirstly, when is the FED going to raise rates again. Before the end of 2017 or spill it over into 2018?\r\n\r\nSecondly, will she provide updates about the FED reducing the size of its balance sheet. By how much and when will they start.\r\n\r\nFrankly, I do not think that the rest matters. She will drone on giving us waffle for a good 15-20 minutes, but at the end of the day, in my opinion its only about the above two points. You will see and hear media account executives asking the same questions 50 different ways to let their managers know that they turned up and weren’t “bunking off”, but at the end of the day it could be all over in a “Wham Bam Thank You Mam” 10 minutes maximum and everyone could be down to the pub after 20 minutes writing their pieces.\r\n\r\nThe drama unfolds at 2PM EST and the Press Conference at 2:30PM EST on Wednesday.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP</u>: </strong>On the back off the HAWKISH BOE last week we have Retail Sales this Tuesday. I can see it now on twitter. BOE to definitely hike in November as Retail Sales beat, or, BOE rate hike this year in question as UK Retails sales miss.\r\n\r\nFor Carney to do a complete u turn is not unheard of.\r\n\r\nIf ever you go to lunch with him, beware if you only have one hour for allocated, as he is so indecisive about his choices, you may end up eating nothing or eating alone. Allegedly, Carney cannot make up his mind what to eat and when he does he keeps changing his mind.\r\n\r\nIt is so bad that in local restaurants, close to the Threadneedle Street area of London that are known to accommodate BOE employees they have alternative Mark Carney menus. They include a clause “Mr. Carney, once you have decided upon your choice of food from our menu you cannot change your mind. Regretfully forward guidance is believed and 100% adopted by our chefs. The direction you have chosen is final”\r\n\r\nDo not be surprised if Carney has you brain in a fecking twist up to the end of this year. He is the master of changing one’s mind. If it were an Olympic sport he would win the GOLD MEDAL.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>CAD</u></strong>: I am a buyer of CAD$ and I am adding to positions, taking profits here and there as the markets chop back and forth. This week we have CPI and Core Retail Sales, this inflation data will be key for the BOC vis-a-vis another interest rate hike before the end of 2017.\r\n\r\nThe economic data from Canada recently has been really good just the odd bit of mixed data, like the Employment numbers when the mix between Full and Part Time jobs was skewed.\r\n\r\nIf this week’s data does NOT rule out another BOC rate hike, I will be adding more positions to my CORE CAD position.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>NZD</u></strong>:  It is the New Zealand 2017 General Election this Friday. I am generally bearish the Kiwi; however, I believe it would be sound to wind back trades ahead of the result. I have already started this with PREMIUM SERVICE trades and I will continue this process through the week.\r\n\r\nI would imagine the start of trading next weekend will be the time for volatility on a grand scale if we are going to see big moves.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>4.1: PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber based Forex support service offering my suggested trade set-ups and market commentary.\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nMONTH TO DATE:  +406 net pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE:      +7,062 net pips\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs on my website  <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n<u>4.2: CURRENT SUBSCRIPTION PROMOTION:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/FALL2017-PROMOTION.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9908\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/FALL2017-PROMOTION-788x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"788\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>\r\n4.3: WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nIf you would like to be in the monthly draw to win a “FREE 30 DAY SUBSCRIPTION” to the PREMIUM SERVICE, valued at CAD$150.00, all you should do is subscribe to receive this FREE NEWSLETTER on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nThis can be done as follows: -\r\n\r\nOn my welcome page just below my cube logo is where you complete your subscription.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>4.4: PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:</u><u>\r\n</u>(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.1: TRADING REVIEW, INSIGHTS and SUMMARY:</u>\r\n\r\nWhat a week last week was.\r\n\r\nI was distracted on several occasions with having to be away to take care of my Jeep’s service but more importantly issues with my new webhost regarding bulk email delivery. The only effective workaround is not to use my WordPress connection through my website but to use my database via constant contact.\r\n\r\nFrom a trading perspective, I have changed views with the cable. I have gone into some detail in “THE SOAPBOX”.\r\n\r\nI tweeted last week after the BOE Super Thursday that I would look for GBP trades into this week, as we were into Friday trading session but especially with the missile launches out of North Korea it made sense to wait. I did not, and frankly no-one could have predicted the comments from Gertjan Vlieghe BOE MPC member. He basically sent his own missile under the GBP. His comments are in a different tone from Carney and we should not get too carried away but that detail would not stop the market reaction. It has been an absolute stellar move across the board.\r\n\r\nI added a good total of net +406 pips in the past seven days which is great but it was a difficult choppy week. Ranges are tightening again (GBP pairs excepted). This is what happens when we are about to have a market SHIFT.\r\n\r\nMarket correlations are just not sitting properly. One day they are trusted the next morning when I check charts the previous alignment has drifted apart. The geopolitical tensions have a great deal to do with this as this directly affects safe havens such as GOLD, plus the JPY and CHF currencies. I must mention though after the missile launch last Thursday, my reaction was complete caution, the market was to shrug it off within a couple of hours. Something is going to give with this and it will be ugly when it happens.\r\n\r\nThe geopolitical events when added to the changes taking place with Central Bank policy throughout the world is also fueling the uncertainties, correlation issues and non-alignments across markets. Central bank uncertainties on future policy timing (FED and ECB), the dovish approach in general changing into a hawkish policy approach (BOC and BOE) and uncertainties in delay by trying to maintain a neutral policy stance over a more hawkish stance (RBA and RBNZ).\r\n\r\nAdd all these factors together and its quite a mixing bowl of ingredients. I am just not convinced on everything FX at the moment, I am fearing the worse. I know that I am slow and steady at this but so much complacency to me is just mental.\r\n\r\nBack to trading…\r\n\r\nLooking forward with trades, I will continue to press forward building a CORE CAD POSITION. Obviously short term NZD/CAD due to election will be restricted, CAD/CHF and CAD/JPY I will watch more closely than before vis-a-via flight to safety. In addition, given the situation with cable I think that GBP/CAD could be tougher unless we see a USD/CAD fall into the 1.1800’s.\r\n\r\nThe CORE NZD position will have to take back seat until the election is over. Friday last week my AUD/NZD took a beating, but as you know for the last 2 years I have been basically long this pair, it is have given some great returns and I will stick with it. My total position size a sizeable broker account is only 40% of a full-sized position. I could ride this pair substantially lower beyond its monthly ATR on STOP LOSS levels, if required, and still not exceed my risk parameters.\r\n\r\nI need to see the election outcome and reaction before committing more trades. My plan this week it to exit NZD related trades ahead of the vote.\r\n\r\nWith regards to the single currency, I am looking to build a CORE LONG POSITION with the EUR. As you know I have started with EUR/USD, to which I will add more set ups and I need to look at the cross rates this week and add. I have a EUR/CAD short that I entered on a SELL STOP below previous good support. It has given me a nasty rebound spike higher. I extended the STOP to stick with this pair as will follow USD/CAD moves. Annoyingly at the moment the USD/CAD is consolidation before resuming its move lower with the trend. Bounces have been minimal so far.\r\n\r\nI have made many references to cable. I will be posting several pullback entries from the get go this week.\r\n\r\nThere will be quite a bit of LIMIT ORDER activity in the early part of the week.\r\n\r\nWe have the FOMC this week as you are aware, it is the draw of the news events. As you have seen, I have adjusted my entry tactics more of late to using momentum as a means of trade entry by using BUY STOPS and SELL STOP orders. These are NOT my preferred means of entering trades but they are working more times than not. I will continue with these for the time being, they should be of use around the FOMC.\r\n\r\nWhilst I am very positive on my trading to obtain results at the moment I do have market concerns as you know and I have raised them again in the blog. I will try tot to get SPOOKED but we ready for mass exits of trades should the ARMAGEDDON situation arise.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.4.2: MARKET SENTIMENT:\r\n\r\n<u><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/SENTIMENT-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10009\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/SENTIMENT-17092017-688x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"688\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.3: USD: MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS with TRADING CHARTS:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10008\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-17092017-1024x852.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"852\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n\r\nPlease note that now that these charts are PREMIUM SERVICE subscriber only, I am now able to have them focused to existing trades and limit orders as well as future intentions.\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>EUR/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/EURUSD-D-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10019\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/EURUSD-D-17092017-1024x511.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"511\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/GBPUSD-W-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10020\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/GBPUSD-W-17092017-1024x511.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"511\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/AUDUSD-D-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10018\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/AUDUSD-D-17092017-1024x511.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"511\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/NZDUSD-D-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10021\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/NZDUSD-D-17092017-1024x511.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"511\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCAD-D-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10022\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCAD-D-17092017-1024x511.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"511\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCHF-D-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10023\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCHF-D-17092017-1024x511.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"511\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\n<u><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDJPY-D-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10024\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDJPY-D-17092017-1024x511.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"511\" /></a></u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.4: EXISTING &amp; POTENTIAL CORE TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\nBasically, I am bearish the CAD and NZD and the two currencies are dominating my thoughts, trades and limit orders at the moment.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE CAD:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nCurrently, I am live the following: -\r\n\r\nCAD/CHF – long\r\nUSD/CAD and EUR/CAD – short\r\n\r\nPlus: - I have SELL STOP limit orders and standard limit orders in position for the USD/CAD.\r\n\r\nI am adding on pullbacks and getting prepared. I see the BOC raising once more this year as they take aim at the housing bubble and personal lending increase’s.\r\n\r\nI am still targeting much lower levels sub 1.2000 with the USD/CAD. This level if broken should drag all CAD pairs stronger.\r\n\r\nA Couple of weeks ago, ScotiaBank released its latest batch of currency targets and thoughts vis-à-vis the markets. It has another rate hike in the mix for Q4 2017 and two more in 2018. If they were all 0.25% rate increases, that would make a grand total rate of 1.75% by the end of 2018.\r\n\r\nIt is a brave call, but I can see it as well given the fundamentals.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: Is to add more USD/CAD trades this coming week and to continue to build a CORE SHORT POSITION that enables me to add to and take pips and $$$ from trades as the CAD strengthens.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE NZD</u></strong>:\r\n\r\nCurrently I have several live long AUD/NZD trades and a NZD/CHF short trade.\r\n\r\nPlus: - One more long AUD/NZD limit order trade, a NZD/JPY short limit order and a EUR/NZD long limit order trades waiting in the wings.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: I am going to reduce NZD exposure this week given the fact that the New Zealand General Election takes place on Friday. I will then look at the market sentiment next week to review my future plan.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE EUR</u></strong>:\r\n\r\nEUR/USD: I have placed multiple LIMIT ORDERS based initially on my thoughts that we would see a larger pullback with the single currency from its break above 1.2000. this materialized only as far as 1.1840.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: I am going to look at adding more LIMIT ORDER set ups over the coming days. I still believe that the EUR/USD is going back towards 1.3000. The rhetoric out of the ECB has been calming, but it is questionable that the market is believing anything that comes out of Frankfurt at the moment.\r\n\r\nI will also look at some EUR crosses once again.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE GBP:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nNothing is in position yet. I believe that there will be some excellent pullback opportunities to enter GBP related trades across the board and I will be looking for these opportunities this week. The only pairs that I am uncertain about are GBP/CAD and GBP/CHF. However, all other crosses should have great potential.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.5: PREMIUM SERVICE – CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u>CURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE - LIVE TRADES:\r\n\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/LIVE-17092017-1.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10081\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/LIVE-17092017-1-866x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"866\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\nCURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE – LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/LIMIT-17092017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10010\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/LIMIT-17092017-967x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"967\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE SOAPBOX:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>\r\nCARNEY COMES OUT OF THE CLOSET\r\n</strong><strong>(BOE NOW HAWKISH)</strong></p>\r\nOn BOE “Super Thursday” last week interest rates remained on hold but the HAWKISH tone of the Monetary Policy Statement sent the cable on a tear.  Later in the day Mark Carney (BOE Governor) was on the wires fueling the statement content further by openly stating that the next move higher in cable would be upwards and sooner than expected.\r\n\r\nHaving moved about 150 pips on the statement release, Carney’s added comments only placed about another 40 pips on top. It was the comments the following morning (Friday) by BOE MPC member Gertjan Vlieghe, who came out and stated that the increase would be soon and more than a one and done which Carney had intimated the prior day. These comments sent the GBP/USD above 1.3600.\r\n\r\nFrom 1.3150 to 1.3600 (450 pips) in basically 24 hours was what you call a substantial shift in sentiment and a stellar move.\r\n\r\nThe comments from Carney, that he has finally let go of the dovish sentiment and admitted a hike was required after months of denial has brought him out of the closet and the dove has now turned hawk.\r\n\r\nBy coincidence upon receipt of the comments from the BOE, but with no closet involved, I have also changed my GBP bias. I am no longer bearish cable in the short / medium term. I am bullish primarily because with cable above the 1.3450 - 1.3500 levels we are now in a bullish trend. The market is now focused on BOE interest rates rather than the political gaffs surrounding BREXIT.\r\n\r\nNow look…\r\n\r\nI still have massive BREXIT reservations and concerns. Theresa May’s government’s handling of the BREXIT negotiations appears poor and not planned. The Tories have a paper-thin majority in the House of Commons.\r\n\r\nHowever, even with this backdrop it looks like that even without a single BREXIT agreement reached and mass confusion reigning over the negotiations, UK households are going to have more cash pressures placed upon them.\r\n\r\nPersonally, I think that this rate increase should it happen is a recipe for disaster. Never trust accountants in deciding these matters. I have said it before, these pen pushing, desk sucking, jotter blotters do not get out much, they live, breathe and survive on historic data and do NOT take into consideration facts in the reality of the present day.\r\n\r\nYou can bet your bottom dollar that any rate increase will be 100% passed on the mortgages and credit card debt. Households that are currently feeling the effects of inflation are about to get a kick in the nuts as living costs are about to move higher. Look out for defaults on loans, mortgages etc. on the increase in the coming months and for “Vlieghe” to intimate multiple interest rate hikes was reckless as it could start something more than just defaults.\r\n\r\nI know some of you will think that the mere fact that the GBP/USD exchange rate is increasing that this is deflationary, and, I agree, but it is a year away at least to feel the deflationary effect. The debt default issues are bubbling under right now beneath the surface prior to adding more pressure through interest rate increases.\r\n\r\nIn addition, do not forget trade will be effected by rate increases. The balancing act is a difficult one to maintain but I am astonished that the pen pushers have gotten their way. Given all the uncertainties on the economy and with BREXIT I would have ran with higher inflation in Q2 2018.\r\n\r\nThere are still a couple of “not sures” emanating from the BOE statement and comments that followed.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Slow rate increases like the FED?</li>\r\n 	<li>Tapering through Balance Sheet reduction of the QE program when will this commence?</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThere is a BOE inflation report due in November, this looks like the date for the first rate hike. So, we do not have detail but the markets have basically already started to price in a 0.25% rate increase.\r\n\r\nWhilst I can see the move by the BOE and the sentiment change, I can also see the other side. This is a risky decision if they go ahead.\r\n\r\nStarting Monday I will be hunting down GBP long trades based off pullbacks through Fibonacci retracements. All GBP pairs are overbought, EUR/GBP oversold, but there will be some great trading opportunities in the near term to take advantage of.\r\n\r\nThe BOC obtained almost $0.13 cents on their move higher, if cable were to match this, it would be close to 1.4450.  Whilst I cannot see that given the money flows I can see a challenge of 1.3870 the 61.8% retracement from the pre Brexit June 2016 highs (1.5034) to the December 2106 lows (1.1994).\r\n\r\nWhat happens now if we have a catastrophic BREXIT announcement or a leadership battle in the Tory party or another election is called in the next couple of months?\r\n\r\nInteresting times ahead.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #147 PREMIUM SERVICE VERSION\r\nSeptember 17th, 2017\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','CARNEY COMES OUT OF THE CLOSET','','inherit','closed','closed','','10025-revision-v1','','','2017-09-28 03:49:18','2017-09-28 08:49:18','',10025,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/10025-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(10111,1,'2017-09-29 16:56:50','2017-09-29 21:56:50','','MKT SENTIMENT 01102017','','inherit','open','closed','','mkt-sentiment-01102017','','','2017-09-30 07:37:44','2017-09-30 12:37:44','',10145,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/MKT-SENTIMENT-01102017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(10112,1,'2017-09-29 16:56:54','2017-09-29 21:56:54','','PIPBYPIP COMPARISON 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01102017','','inherit','open','closed','','eurusd-d-01102017','','','2017-09-30 07:38:28','2017-09-30 12:38:28','',10145,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/EURUSD-D-01102017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(10130,1,'2017-09-29 17:08:40','2017-09-29 22:08:40','','GBPUSD D 01102017','','inherit','open','closed','','gbpusd-d-01102017','','','2017-09-30 07:38:37','2017-09-30 12:38:37','',10145,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/GBPUSD-D-01102017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(10131,1,'2017-09-29 17:08:42','2017-09-29 22:08:42','','NZDUSD D 01102017','','inherit','open','closed','','nzdusd-d-01102017','','','2017-09-30 07:38:55','2017-09-30 12:38:55','',10145,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/NZDUSD-D-01102017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(10132,1,'2017-09-29 17:08:45','2017-09-29 22:08:45','','USDCAD D 01102017','','inherit','open','closed','','usdcad-d-01102017','','','2017-09-30 07:39:04','2017-09-30 12:39:04','',10145,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCAD-D-01102017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(10133,1,'2017-09-29 17:08:48','2017-09-29 22:08:48','','USDCHF D 01102017','','inherit','open','closed','','usdchf-d-01102017','','','2017-09-30 07:39:11','2017-09-30 12:39:11','',10145,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDCHF-D-01102017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(10134,1,'2017-09-29 17:08:54','2017-09-29 22:08:54','','USDJPY D 01102017','','inherit','open','closed','','usdjpy-d-01102017','','','2017-09-30 07:39:22','2017-09-30 12:39:22','',10145,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/USDJPY-D-01102017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(10997,1,'2018-02-17 08:01:33','2018-02-17 13:01:33','<h4>Fundamental Trades Archives:</h4>\r\n<section class=\"clearfix\">\r\n<div class=\"one-half first\">\r\n<h2>This Month\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/FUN-17022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10987\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/FUN-17022018-796x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"796\" height=\"1024\" /></a></h2>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"one-half\">\r\n<h2>Year to date<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/FUN-JANYTD2018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10901\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/FUN-JANYTD2018-751x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"751\" height=\"1024\" /></a></h2>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/FUNDAMENTAL-YTD-JULY31.png\">\r\n</a>\r\n<h2>PREVIOUS YEARS</h2>\r\n<h2><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/FUNDAMENTAL-2017-COMPLETE.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-10713\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/FUNDAMENTAL-2017-COMPLETE.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"866\" height=\"952\" /></a></h2>\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-8811\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/FUN-2016-COMPLETE.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"874\" height=\"942\" />\r\n<h2><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/FUN-2015-COMP-copy.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-10671\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/FUN-2015-COMP-copy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"430\" height=\"442\" /></a></h2>\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/FUNDAMENTAL-YEAR-TO-DATE-2014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-8860\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/FUNDAMENTAL-YEAR-TO-DATE-2014.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"710\" height=\"754\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</section>','FUNDAMENTAL TRADES','','inherit','closed','closed','','3106-revision-v1','','','2018-02-17 08:01:33','2018-02-17 13:01:33','',3106,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/3106-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(11029,1,'2018-02-23 17:39:35','2018-02-23 22:39:35','<h4>Fundamental Trades Archives:</h4>\r\n<section class=\"clearfix\">\r\n<div class=\"one-half first\">\r\n<h2>This Month\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/FUN-24022018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-11018\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/FUN-24022018-794x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"794\" height=\"1024\" /></a></h2>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"one-half\">\r\n<h2>Year to date<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/FUN-JANYTD2018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10901\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/FUN-JANYTD2018-751x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"751\" height=\"1024\" /></a></h2>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/FUNDAMENTAL-YTD-JULY31.png\">\r\n</a>\r\n<h2>PREVIOUS YEARS</h2>\r\n<h2><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/FUNDAMENTAL-2017-COMPLETE.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-10713\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/FUNDAMENTAL-2017-COMPLETE.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"866\" height=\"952\" /></a></h2>\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-8811\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/FUN-2016-COMPLETE.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"874\" height=\"942\" />\r\n<h2><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/FUN-2015-COMP-copy.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-10671\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/FUN-2015-COMP-copy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"430\" height=\"442\" /></a></h2>\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/FUNDAMENTAL-YEAR-TO-DATE-2014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-8860\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/FUNDAMENTAL-YEAR-TO-DATE-2014.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"710\" height=\"754\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</section>','FUNDAMENTAL TRADES','','inherit','closed','closed','','3106-revision-v1','','','2018-02-23 17:39:35','2018-02-23 22:39:35','',3106,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/3106-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(10305,1,'2017-10-30 09:16:39','2017-10-30 14:16:39','&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE - WEBINAR:</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Clicking the link below will take you to my webinar presentation, which tells you all about how the PREMIUM SERVICE evolved and what it can do for you as a subscriber.<strong>\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a></strong></p>\r\n<strong>\r\nPRESENTATIONS and SEMINARS:</strong>\r\n\r\nNothing scheduled. When plans are being formulated details will appear here.\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\nLIVE WEBINARS:</strong>\r\n\r\nIt was my plan to re-launch these in the autumn / fall of 2017. I have decided to leave this to one side for now as I am planning a re-vamp for 2018 of my website, the PREMIUM SERVICE  and my format of the WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU blog.\r\n\r\nMy thoughts are to bring all four revised items (WEBINAR, THE PREMIUM SERVICE, the DRIVE THRU BLOG and WEBSITE) to the market at the same time early 2018.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\n1st October 2017','UPCOMING LIVE EVENTS (WEBINARS / PRESENTATIONS and SEMINARS)','','inherit','closed','closed','','4239-revision-v1','','','2017-10-30 09:16:39','2017-10-30 14:16:39','',4239,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/4239-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(10304,1,'2017-10-30 09:16:04','2017-10-30 14:16:04','&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE - WEBINAR:</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Clicking the link below will take you to my webinar presentation, which tells you all about how the PREMIUM SERVICE evolved and what it can do for you as a subscriber.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a></strong></p>\r\n<strong>\r\nPRESENTATIONS and SEMINARS:</strong>\r\n\r\nNothing scheduled. When plans are being formulated details will appear here.\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\nLIVE WEBINARS:</strong>\r\n\r\nIt was my plan to re-launch these in the autumn / fall of 2017. I have decided to leave this to one side for now as I am planning a re-vamp for 2018 of my website, the PREMIUM SERVICE  and my format of the WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU blog.\r\n\r\nMy thoughts are to bring all four revised items (WEBINAR, THE PREMIUM SERVICE, the DRIVE THRU BLOG and WEBSITE) to the market at the same time early 2018.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\n1st October 2017','UPCOMING LIVE EVENTS (WEBINARS / PRESENTATIONS and SEMINARS)','','inherit','closed','closed','','4239-revision-v1','','','2017-10-30 09:16:04','2017-10-30 14:16:04','',4239,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/4239-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(10306,1,'2017-10-30 09:17:16','2017-10-30 14:17:16','&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE - WEBINAR:</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Clicking the link below will take you to my webinar presentation, which tells you all about how the PREMIUM SERVICE evolved and what it can do for you as a subscriber.<strong>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a></strong></p>\r\n<strong>\r\nPRESENTATIONS and SEMINARS:</strong>\r\n\r\nNothing scheduled. When plans are being formulated details will appear here.\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\nLIVE WEBINARS:</strong>\r\n\r\nIt was my plan to re-launch these in the autumn / fall of 2017. I have decided to leave this to one side for now as I am planning a re-vamp for 2018 of my website, the PREMIUM SERVICE  and my format of the WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU blog.\r\n\r\nMy thoughts are to bring all four revised items (WEBINAR, THE PREMIUM SERVICE, the DRIVE THRU BLOG and WEBSITE) to the market at the same time early 2018.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\n1st October 2017','UPCOMING LIVE EVENTS (WEBINARS / PRESENTATIONS and SEMINARS)','','inherit','closed','closed','','4239-revision-v1','','','2017-10-30 09:17:16','2017-10-30 14:17:16','',4239,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/4239-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(10920,1,'2018-02-03 08:28:30','2018-02-03 13:28:30','','PREM SERV STATUS 03022017','','inherit','open','closed','','prem-serv-status-03022017','','','2018-02-03 09:13:56','2018-02-03 14:13:56','',10929,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/PREM-SERV-STATUS-03022017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(10921,1,'2018-02-03 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