<strong><span style="font-size: 14pt;">THE DAILY FX POST</span>
<span style="font-size: 14pt;"> from</span>
<span style="font-size: 14pt;"> THE PREMIUM SERVICE</span></strong>

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<strong>DATE: Wednesday 29th October 2014
REF: #117</strong>

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<ol>
	<li><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong> OVERVIEW – INITIAL THOUGHTS:</strong></span></li>
</ol>
Today is the day.

I am ready for the FOMC. I hope you guy are to.

I think that today’s statement will cause a very volatile reaction in the Forex markets. Everyone is focused on the words in the statement. “Considerable Time” being what appears to me the most important.

Personally, I think that Yellen, who is the #1, dove when it comes to all her statements and testimonies so far will not change character or approach today with the comments in the statement.

There is no press conference today, where she could explain a change in policy. The two key items that lots of analysts look at are INFLATION and UNEMPLOYMENT. Both of these subjects will feature on the FOMC release and whether you believe the employment data for example, is entirely up to you, but, it is the market’s reaction which will be the one to follow as it is the market that will move the prices. INFLATION is not yet at 2%, which is a core FED objective and as a result there are DEFLATIONARY concerns hanging over the FED. UNEMPLOYMENT is sub 6% and under Bernanke this was a key measurement. Yellen has moved FED watchers away from the previous targets triggering moves.

Moving on….

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">WHAT AM I LOOKING FOR SPECIFICALLY?</span>

Looking at the markets they have decided that rate hikes will not happen until late 2015 or early 2016. Should the FED state categorically that rates would not rise until 2016. I will close all USD long positions irrespective of the hedging in place.

In simple terms this is it… nothing more.

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">WHAT HAVE I DONE TO PROTECT MY OPEN POSITIONS?</span>
<ol>
	<li>I have closed out most “non-hedged” positions already. The remainder I will look at later.</li>
	<li>Reduced position sizes where applicable to moderate and reduce risk.</li>
	<li>I have had hedging in place for about 2/3 weeks on some core positions and it will remain in position through the FOMC data. My maximum loss on existing hedged trades is – 370 pips. I am concerned with some of the overnight (SWAP) costs getting out of control, so I may close off positions later should the FOMC go against my trades. I also have at the back of my mind the follow through into Asia and Europe. But I will decide this later as I am well within my RISK TOLERANCES and positions are not large.</li>
	<li>Therefore my plan is in place. I know what I am looking for and based upon the exact wording and reaction, I will either close positions or let the hedges continue on.</li>
	<li>I also have to bear in mind that the RBNZ reports two hours after the FED data and two of my open trades are NZD related.</li>
</ol>
We are still range bound and I will not be averse to not entering new trades. Here are the levels / ranges that I am looking at with the USD majors.

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">CURRENCY PAIR</span>                            <span style="text-decoration: underline;">SUPPORT </span>                 <span style="text-decoration: underline;">RESISTANCE</span>

EUR/USD                                           1.2680                         1.2765 (yesterdays highs)

GBP/USD                                           1.6050                         1.6200

AUD/USD                                          0.8840                         0.8950

NZD/USD                                          0.7880                         0.7960 (yesterdays highs)

USD/CAD                                          1.1130                            1.1200

USD/JPY                                            107.50                         108.35

USD/CHF                                           0.9440                         0.9520

I will be on twitter through the FOMC and I expecting it to be hectic.

If you are a new trader I would suggest that you be sidelined.

<strong> </strong>
<ol start="2">
	<li><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong> KEY NEWS EVENTS NEXT 24 hours (BASED UPON (NYC) EDT TIME:</strong></span></li>
</ol>
USD: - FOMC statement.
NZD: - RBNZ cash rate and RBNZ statement.

AUD: - RBA mid year Fiscal and Economic outlook report.

<strong> </strong>
<ol start="3">
	<li><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong> EXISTING LIVE TRADES:</strong></span></li>
</ol>
Every morning, I complete this section and the negative trades remind me that RISK MANAGEMENT is probably the single most crucial aspect of being a Forex trader for the long haul. I look at these trades and then look at the day trades that are being down that keep the $$$ clock ticking in the background.

I think that before the end of this month I would have made my decision on my core trades. My position sizes are <span style="text-decoration: underline;">not even</span> at 20% of my maximum trading position size.

<strong>RADAR TRADES:</strong>

There are no LIVE RADAR TRADES at the present time.

<strong>FLASH TRADES:</strong>

FT190
NZD/USD
Short at 0.7793
Stop at 0.8050
Limit at 0.6580
Price Now: 0.7938
Current Profit / Loss Position: - 145 pips
(This pair is hedged from -100 pips)

FT202
USD/CAD
Long at 1.1340
Stop at 1.1170
Limit at 1.1570
Price Now: 1.1143
Current Profit / Loss Position: -197 pips
(This pair is hedged from -70 pips)

FT215
NZD/USD
Short at 0.7895
Stop at 0.7960
Limit 0.7795
Price now 0.7938
Current Profit / Loss Position: -43 pips

FT217
EUR/USD
Short at 1.2758
Stop at 1.2850
Limit 1.2450
Price now 1.2737
Current Profit / Loss Position: +21 pips

FT215
USD/SEK
Long at 7.3520
Stop at 7.2500
Limit 7.4170
Price now 7.3192
Current Profit / Loss Position: -324 pips
(This pair is hedged from -100 pips. I did this about 3 hours ago)

<strong>FUNDAMENTAL TRADES:</strong>

FUN44
GBP/NZD
Long at 2.0507
Stop at 1.9800
Limit at 2.3200
Price Now: 2.0304
Current Profit / Loss Position: -203 pips
(This pair is hedged from -100 pips)

<strong> </strong>
<ol start="4">
	<li><strong> LIMIT &amp; STOP ORDERS WITH BROKERS:</strong></li>
</ol>
There are no LIMIT ORDERS with my brokers at this present time. I do however have several set-ups ready to place after the FED tomorrow afternoon.

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Good luck today and take care.
Scott Pickering
The Pip Accumulator
<a href="http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>
Twitter: @ThePremService
Email: premiumserice@weeklyfxdrivethru.com

<strong>DISCLAIMER:</strong>

FLASH, RADAR and FUNDAMENTAL trade set-ups, “Tweets” and “Trade ideas” that are posted in my blogs or on Twitter are trades and set-ups that interest me. They are provided for training and informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as an offer, solicitation or recommendation of any specific security or investment strategy. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading Forex carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade any such leveraged products you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin, and seek advice from an independent financial adviser if you have any doubts.