(7333,1,'2016-02-20 05:47:54','2016-02-20 10:47:54','<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li><strong> INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nWhat a tiring week last week turned out to be. It was really a 3.5 day week for me with the U.S. and Canadian holiday on Monday. Following the JPY explosion and implosion, I suppose I should not have been surprised to see the market calm down and consolidate.\r\n\r\nHowever, I sat at my desk, fingers ready at the keyboards to pounce and bugger all really happened. I spent most of the week telling subscribers I am sidelined, the markets are range bound, we are just moving sideways, the charts are a mess and I am neither chasing moves or manufacturing trades that do not meet the criteria of my TRADE PLAN. So, I was like a pork pie at a Jewish wedding…just sat there doing nothing.\r\n\r\nSo much for me telling new subscribers to Forex not worry there is a market everyday. Unless you are a prolific 10-pip scalper and day trader, this market has you sidelined, in my opinion. At least I have been practicing what I preach, patience… wait for the trades to come to you.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nJust to remind you; you could be the next winner of a free PREMIUM SERVICE (SILVER) subscription; if you subscribe to receive this free blog via my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nYou are automatically entered into a free monthly draw, once you’ve subscribed. Each month during 2016 one lucky blog subscriber will receive a free subscription to the PREMIUM SERVICE (SILVER).\r\n\r\nYou could be the next lucky winner. The next draw is next weekend.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>2.1: WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber, fee based trade set-up option for Forex traders regardless of experience or background. I provide traders suggested trades, and some market commentary related to open trades or factors within the overall market that have my interest.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and the various trade styles plus how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nAdditional information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE you will require a PayPal account.\r\n\r\n<u>2.2: PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE THIS MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n<strong>NET PIPS THIS MONTH SO FAR:            +958</strong>\r\n<strong>NET PIPS THIS YEAR SO FAR:                +2,357</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>NET PIPS 2015        10,686</strong>\r\n<strong>NET PIPS 2014        11,209</strong>\r\n\r\n(I trade basically for 10 months a year. I do not trade middle July through early September or middle December through early January).\r\n\r\nIf you want more data or detail about the performance and the tabs on my website landing page do not answer your questions, contact me directly and I will supply the trading data you require. There are NO secrets. There are many, many spreadsheets detailing performance trade by trade and by trade and by trading style, way too many to place in this blog. If you are interested in the PREMIUM SERVICE and want more information, all you have to do is ask.\r\n\r\n<u>2.3: PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBER PROMOTION:</u>\r\n\r\nThis is the final week of this years promotion:\r\n\r\nPlease note that until the end of February 2016, I have a very special subscription offer in place. You can check this out on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by clicking on the FX PROMOTIONS tab at the top of the page.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>3.1: LAST WEEK’S NEWS – MY THOUGHTS:</strong>\r\n\r\nAs stated previously, it was a shortened trading week with the U.S. markets out for President’s Day last Monday. It felt like a short week, But however because of the lack of real trading activity it also felt like a long week!\r\n\r\nNevertheless, we had Draghi speak at length in the European Parliament about the single currency. His jawboning had a slow and steady dropping effect on the EUR/USD, but it was still contained within its range.\r\n\r\nThere was a lot of AUD and NZD top tier data releases last week, but not enough to springboard a move out of their trading ranges. Last week the commodity currencies acted independently of the EUR and GBP. They moved around within tight ranges and the daily charts, in particular the AUD/USD and NZD/USD are just a mess, just rage bound activity not even really touching the extremes, just awful for my trading style.\r\n\r\nEven the FOMC meeting minute’s reaction was a non-event. It was wetter than the wettest fish swimming in the deepest part of the ocean…. and that’s wet!\r\n\r\nGood CPi data indicating an inflation indication moved equities lower but the Forex reaction was basically more chop, chop, chop.\r\n\r\nLast week I witnessed more chop, chop, chop than Gordon Ramsey would in one of his restaurants.\r\n\r\nAre you getting a visual yet?\r\n\r\nBoring, boring, boring is how I sum, up the past week. In fact I would go so far as to say it was one of the most boring weeks in Forex trading that I have experienced in some 8 years.\r\n\r\nYes, I can hear people say oil made a few headlines and, yes I agree, but nothing really happened. Dips were bought and rallies were sold into. CNBC were happy with the buy the dip calls, but frankly I was bored. I shoveled a lot of snow last week.<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>3.2: WHAT’S ON MY MIND:</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">THE NEW WORLD (FX) ORDER</p>\r\nBefore slashing my wrists, or for some of you, after reading the previous section, you may be thinking about looking for the closest bridge to jump off, let me place some more perspective on matters.\r\n\r\nWe have just seen a failed attempt by the BOJ to weaken the JPY through Negative Interest Rates, which were in addition to the existing QQE program. This was a token gesture, granted, but a failure. The JPY has strengthened since and Abe and Kuroda must be pulling their hair out. They have inflation targets, the timescales have been pushed out but even still they are miles, miles and miles away from achieving objective in my opinion.\r\n\r\nThe FED just raised rates and are standing behind that decision in spite of the crybaby’s on Wall Street treating every piece of data in isolation claiming, hoping and praying that there are no rate rises in 2016. They believe if they say it enough times it will happen…complete and utter boll**ks. There may not be 3 or 4 rate increases by the Fed this year, maybe just a couple but to say none this early is damn stupid in my opinion. One can argue if we have two blow out NFP months of data and improving CPI and PPi data then we could be back at 4 rises minimum and maybe not just 0.25% a time.\r\n\r\nThe UK is in a BREXIT showdown, with a vote due before the summer, probably late June. “JCB” Carney has already ruled out rate increases and if a BREXIT was unanimous in a referendum the cable would initially crater. In the interim we have great uncertainty. Right now, David Cameron, UK Prime Minister is trying to broker a fresh UK European agreement to use at the referendum as a means of staying inside Europe. The referendum could go either way.\r\n\r\nMario Draghi must pour out his cornflakes every morning shouting “What the F**k”, no matter what he does or says he cannot get the EUR/USD below 1.1000 again. He has bugger all support from the likes of Merkel, Weidmann or Schaeuble (aka Pit Bull), they are so wrapped up in middle-eastern refugees, German bank liquidity issues and opinion polls they just do not want Draghi and the ECB to rock the boat with more liquidity creating a greater financial burden for Germany.\r\n\r\nOn the fringes as I view them: -\r\n\r\nThe Bank of Canada (BOC): I am not a fan of Stephen Poloz, I think that he is so far behind the curve he can’t even see it anymore. Retail Sales last week were a bloody disaster. I have been saying for months that his head is buried in a bucket of sand. Canada is bordering on recession, once again. There is a lack of confidence. Yeah sure, we have a new government…..big whoopee. There are problems that cannot be solved through fiscal measures alone. Poloz will grasp at anything positive to prevent taking action. The Canadian way is to wait until matters are so bad and so poor, before action is taken. It is a pure reactionary environment. If I ever witnessed pro-activity in Canada I think I would have the nosebleed that would be in the Guinness book of records.\r\n\r\nI see rate cuts, fiscal aid from Trudeau and probably some form of QE and negative interest rates in Canada before its all said and done.\r\n\r\nThe Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA): Basically Australia is split in two; the west with failing commodities and under real pressure and the east, including Sydney with a potential housing bubble.\r\n\r\nI call this “Chalk and Cheese”, totally opposite ends of the spectrum. The balancing skills of a performer from Cirque Du Soleil are required here. Does Glenn Stevens the governor possess these?\r\n\r\nLast week he sent out his lackey John Edwards to inform the markets that the AUD/USD target rate is more comfortable around the 0.6500 levels in the opinion of the RBA.\r\n\r\nThe Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ): If anyone can advise me what Graeme Wheeler, RBNZ governor’s objectives are please do so. Between himself and English (Finance Minister), the actions and words are in conflict most of the time. The last news I have was that rate increases were off the table.\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, I do not think that the China effect is fully worked into the NZD/USD. Additionally, if the RBA is looking to shoot lower at 0.6500, where does that comparison level leave the NZD, closer to 0.5500?\r\n\r\nLast but not least, the Swiss National Bank (SNB): Thomas Jordan, man of the year 2015 with regards to Forex in 2015, speaks this week. I wonder what pearls of wisdom are going to emanate from his mouth. If he denies a target rate for the EUR/CHF… that’s code for there is one.\r\n\r\nI think with the EUR/CHF back above 1.1000, he will keep his powder dry but he will re-iterate the usual now familiar all options open, everything is on the table, nothing is ruled out, if we need to act we will type of phrases. But do not be fooled he may slide in an increase in negative interest rates, just because the markets do not believe the BOJ, he would rather the markets run to Gold and the JPY for safe havens and leave the CHF alone.\r\n\r\nThat is it…THE NEW WORLD ORDER…it is CURRENCY WARS and we are moving into the next stage.\r\n\r\nAs far as I am concerned central bank divergence is still breathing but the difference now versus the autumn/fall last year is that the power of the central bank is being tested.\r\n\r\nLet me say this in capitals/ uppercase…\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">IF YOU THINK THAT YOU CAN BEAT THE FED…. THINK AGAIN.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">OR</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">YOU CAN BEAT AN EGG BUT YOU CAN’T BEAT THE FED</p>\r\nAs traders we really need to be really careful moving forward whilst the geopolitical macro level factors settle down and are absorbed. You should not just go out and get long the USD. It is not that simple.\r\n\r\nWe have just left the longest running one-sided market ever and we need to unwind and clarify the central bank positions.\r\n\r\nI think if you entered trades today and closed your computer and never looked for 6 months you should be pleasantly surprised when you return, but its not that simple. Between now and then there will be chop and volatility to look after that could give huge swings in positions.\r\n\r\nLast year I was hopeful, in fact very positive on the fact that we should have directional markets. With 6/7 weeks of the year gone I can’t see it happening any time soon. Painful as it is chop-chop appears the way forward for now at least.\r\n\r\nThe one fact I do know is, do not fight the central banks. Even if you think their policies were dreamed up on the back of a fag (cigarette) packet. They have more money than you and they can print even more.\r\n\r\nThere was an article written last week by Mehreen Khan about negative interest rates being a “dangerous experiment”, well worth a read. We are in transition and it will be choppy until boundaries and directions are finalized.\r\n\r\nAs I state at the end of my blog each week. Forex trading is about longevity, survival, also knowing when to be in the market but even better when NOT to be in the market.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) EXCLUSIVE CONTENT:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(This area contains exclusive content for PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) subscribers)\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n	<li><strong> COMING UP THIS WEEK:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5.1: THIS WEEK’S FOREX NEWS THAT INTERESTS ME:</u>\r\n\r\n(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market other than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to <a href=\"http://www.forexfactory.com\">www.forexfactory.com</a> and <a href=\"http://www.tradingeconomics.com\">www.tradingeconomics.com</a> for a more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).\r\nSUNDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: CHF – Thomas Jordan (SNB) speaks.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: GBP – GDP.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: USD – GDP.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>5.1: THE USD MAJORS SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS: </u>\r\n\r\n(In this section I have as usual kept my charts as minimalist as possible. With regards to charting in my opinion less is more!! I hope that they are clear. All readers regardless of level of experience should be able to follow my thoughts from my comments to the levels on the charts with ease)\r\n\r\nMy comments are contained on the charts.\r\n\r\nEUR/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.1229\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/the-new-world-fx-order/eurusd-d-20022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7325\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7325\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/EURUSD-D-20022016-1024x505.png\" alt=\"EURUSD D 20022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"505\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.44404\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/the-new-world-fx-order/gbpusd-d-20022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7326\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7326\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/GBPUSD-D-20022016-1024x505.png\" alt=\"GBPUSD D 20022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"505\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.7147\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/the-new-world-fx-order/audusd-d-20022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7324\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7324\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/AUDUSD-D-20022016-1024x505.png\" alt=\"AUDUSD D 20022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"505\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.6627\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/the-new-world-fx-order/nzdusd-d-20022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7327\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7327\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/NZDUSD-D-20022016-1024x505.png\" alt=\"NZDUSD D 20022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"505\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.3766\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/the-new-world-fx-order/usdcad-d-20022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7328\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7328\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCAD-D-20022016-1024x505.png\" alt=\"USDCAD D 20022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"505\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF - Weekly Closing Price: 0.9891\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/the-new-world-fx-order/usdchf-d-20022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7329\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7329\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCHF-D-20022016-1024x505.png\" alt=\"USDCHF D 20022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"505\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY - Weekly Closing Price: 112.54\r\n\r\n<u><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/the-new-world-fx-order/usdjpy-d-20022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7330\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7330\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDJPY-D-20022016-1024x505.png\" alt=\"USDJPY D 20022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"505\" /></a></u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.3: CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nNo real heavy news agenda items this week except for U.S. GDP on Friday, which will be eagerly awaited and scrutinized to death.\r\n\r\nAs Forex traders we are going to be hostages of equities and oil….. what’s new!\r\n\r\nBe savvy…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nTake care,\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nDATE: 20<sup>h</sup> February 2016\r\nBLOG REFERENCE: DRIVE THRU #189\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','THE NEW WORLD (FX) ORDER','','publish','open','closed','','the-new-world-fx-order','','','2016-02-20 05:47:54','2016-02-20 10:47:54','',0,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?p=7333',0,'post','',0),(7334,1,'2016-02-20 05:45:06','2016-02-20 10:45:06','<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li><strong> INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nWhat a tiring week last week turned out to be. It was really a 3.5 day week for me with the U.S. and Canadian holiday on Monday. Following the JPY explosion and implosion, I suppose I should not have been surprised to see the market calm down and consolidate.\r\n\r\nHowever, I sat at my desk, fingers ready at the keyboards to pounce and bugger all really happened. I spent most of the week telling subscribers I am sidelined, the markets are range bound, we are just moving sideways, the charts are a mess and I am neither chasing moves or manufacturing trades that do not meet the criteria of my TRADE PLAN. So, I was like a pork pie at a Jewish wedding…just sat there doing nothing.\r\n\r\nSo much for me telling new subscribers to Forex not worry there is a market everyday. Unless you are a prolific 10-pip scalper and day trader, this market has you sidelined, in my opinion. At least I have been practicing what I preach, patience… wait for the trades to come to you.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nJust to remind you; you could be the next winner of a free PREMIUM SERVICE (SILVER) subscription; if you subscribe to receive this free blog via my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nYou are automatically entered into a free monthly draw, once you’ve subscribed. Each month during 2016 one lucky blog subscriber will receive a free subscription to the PREMIUM SERVICE (SILVER).\r\n\r\nYou could be the next lucky winner. The next draw is next weekend.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>2.1: WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber, fee based trade set-up option for Forex traders regardless of experience or background. I provide traders suggested trades, and some market commentary related to open trades or factors within the overall market that have my interest.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and the various trade styles plus how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nAdditional information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE you will require a PayPal account.\r\n\r\n<u>2.2: PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE THIS MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n<strong>NET PIPS THIS MONTH SO FAR:            +958</strong>\r\n<strong>NET PIPS THIS YEAR SO FAR:                +2,357</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>NET PIPS 2015        10,686</strong>\r\n<strong>NET PIPS 2014        11,209</strong>\r\n\r\n(I trade basically for 10 months a year. I do not trade middle July through early September or middle December through early January).\r\n\r\nIf you want more data or detail about the performance and the tabs on my website landing page do not answer your questions, contact me directly and I will supply the trading data you require. There are NO secrets. There are many, many spreadsheets detailing performance trade by trade and by trade and by trading style, way too many to place in this blog. If you are interested in the PREMIUM SERVICE and want more information, all you have to do is ask.\r\n\r\n<u>2.3: PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBER PROMOTION:</u>\r\n\r\nThis is the final week of this years promotion:\r\n\r\nPlease note that until the end of February 2016, I have a very special subscription offer in place. You can check this out on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by clicking on the FX PROMOTIONS tab at the top of the page.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>3.1: LAST WEEK’S NEWS – MY THOUGHTS:</strong>\r\n\r\nAs stated previously, it was a shortened trading week with the U.S. markets out for President’s Day last Monday. It felt like a short week, But however because of the lack of real trading activity it also felt like a long week!\r\n\r\nNevertheless, we had Draghi speak at length in the European Parliament about the single currency. His jawboning had a slow and steady dropping effect on the EUR/USD, but it was still contained within its range.\r\n\r\nThere was a lot of AUD and NZD top tier data releases last week, but not enough to springboard a move out of their trading ranges. Last week the commodity currencies acted independently of the EUR and GBP. They moved around within tight ranges and the daily charts, in particular the AUD/USD and NZD/USD are just a mess, just rage bound activity not even really touching the extremes, just awful for my trading style.\r\n\r\nEven the FOMC meeting minute’s reaction was a non-event. It was wetter than the wettest fish swimming in the deepest part of the ocean…. and that’s wet!\r\n\r\nGood CPi data indicating an inflation indication moved equities lower but the Forex reaction was basically more chop, chop, chop.\r\n\r\nLast week I witnessed more chop, chop, chop than Gordon Ramsey would in one of his restaurants.\r\n\r\nAre you getting a visual yet?\r\n\r\nBoring, boring, boring is how I sum, up the past week. In fact I would go so far as to say it was one of the most boring weeks in Forex trading that I have experienced in some 8 years.\r\n\r\nYes, I can hear people say oil made a few headlines and, yes I agree, but nothing really happened. Dips were bought and rallies were sold into. CNBC were happy with the buy the dip calls, but frankly I was bored. I shoveled a lot of snow last week.<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>3.2: WHAT’S ON MY MIND:</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">THE NEW WORLD (FX) ORDER</p>\r\nBefore slashing my wrists, or for some of you, after reading the previous section, you may be thinking about looking for the closest bridge to jump off, let me place some more perspective on matters.\r\n\r\nWe have just seen a failed attempt by the BOJ to weaken the JPY through Negative Interest Rates, which were in addition to the existing QQE program. This was a token gesture, granted, but a failure. The JPY has strengthened since and Abe and Kuroda must be pulling their hair out. They have inflation targets, the timescales have been pushed out but even still they are miles, miles and miles away from achieving objective in my opinion.\r\n\r\nThe FED just raised rates and are standing behind that decision in spite of the crybaby’s on Wall Street treating every piece of data in isolation claiming, hoping and praying that there are no rate rises in 2016. They believe if they say it enough times it will happen…complete and utter boll**ks. There may not be 3 or 4 rate increases by the Fed this year, maybe just a couple but to say none this early is damn stupid in my opinion. One can argue if we have two blow out NFP months of data and improving CPI and PPi data then we could be back at 4 rises minimum and maybe not just 0.25% a time.\r\n\r\nThe UK is in a BREXIT showdown, with a vote due before the summer, probably late June. “JCB” Carney has already ruled out rate increases and if a BREXIT was unanimous in a referendum the cable would initially crater. In the interim we have great uncertainty. Right now, David Cameron, UK Prime Minister is trying to broker a fresh UK European agreement to use at the referendum as a means of staying inside Europe. The referendum could go either way.\r\n\r\nMario Draghi must pour out his cornflakes every morning shouting “What the F**k”, no matter what he does or says he cannot get the EUR/USD below 1.1000 again. He has bugger all support from the likes of Merkel, Weidmann or Schaeuble (aka Pit Bull), they are so wrapped up in middle-eastern refugees, German bank liquidity issues and opinion polls they just do not want Draghi and the ECB to rock the boat with more liquidity creating a greater financial burden for Germany.\r\n\r\nOn the fringes as I view them: -\r\n\r\nThe Bank of Canada (BOC): I am not a fan of Stephen Poloz, I think that he is so far behind the curve he can’t even see it anymore. Retail Sales last week were a bloody disaster. I have been saying for months that his head is buried in a bucket of sand. Canada is bordering on recession, once again. There is a lack of confidence. Yeah sure, we have a new government…..big whoopee. There are problems that cannot be solved through fiscal measures alone. Poloz will grasp at anything positive to prevent taking action. The Canadian way is to wait until matters are so bad and so poor, before action is taken. It is a pure reactionary environment. If I ever witnessed pro-activity in Canada I think I would have the nosebleed that would be in the Guinness book of records.\r\n\r\nI see rate cuts, fiscal aid from Trudeau and probably some form of QE and negative interest rates in Canada before its all said and done.\r\n\r\nThe Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA): Basically Australia is split in two; the west with failing commodities and under real pressure and the east, including Sydney with a potential housing bubble.\r\n\r\nI call this “Chalk and Cheese”, totally opposite ends of the spectrum. The balancing skills of a performer from Cirque Du Soleil are required here. Does Glenn Stevens the governor possess these?\r\n\r\nLast week he sent out his lackey John Edwards to inform the markets that the AUD/USD target rate is more comfortable around the 0.6500 levels in the opinion of the RBA.\r\n\r\nThe Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ): If anyone can advise me what Graeme Wheeler, RBNZ governor’s objectives are please do so. Between himself and English (Finance Minister), the actions and words are in conflict most of the time. The last news I have was that rate increases were off the table.\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, I do not think that the China effect is fully worked into the NZD/USD. Additionally, if the RBA is looking to shoot lower at 0.6500, where does that comparison level leave the NZD, closer to 0.5500?\r\n\r\nLast but not least, the Swiss National Bank (SNB): Thomas Jordan, man of the year 2015 with regards to Forex in 2015, speaks this week. I wonder what pearls of wisdom are going to emanate from his mouth. If he denies a target rate for the EUR/CHF… that’s code for there is one.\r\n\r\nI think with the EUR/CHF back above 1.1000, he will keep his powder dry but he will re-iterate the usual now familiar all options open, everything is on the table, nothing is ruled out, if we need to act we will type of phrases. But do not be fooled he may slide in an increase in negative interest rates, just because the markets do not believe the BOJ, he would rather the markets run to Gold and the JPY for safe havens and leave the CHF alone.\r\n\r\nThat is it…THE NEW WORLD ORDER…it is CURRENCY WARS and we are moving into the next stage.\r\n\r\nAs far as I am concerned central bank divergence is still breathing but the difference now versus the autumn/fall last year is that the power of the central bank is being tested.\r\n\r\nLet me say this in capitals/ uppercase…\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">IF YOU THINK THAT YOU CAN BEAT THE FED…. THINK AGAIN.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">OR</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">YOU CAN BEAT AN EGG BUT YOU CAN’T BEAT THE FED</p>\r\nAs traders we really need to be really careful moving forward whilst the geopolitical macro level factors settle down and are absorbed. You should not just go out and get long the USD. It is not that simple.\r\n\r\nWe have just left the longest running one-sided market ever and we need to unwind and clarify the central bank positions.\r\n\r\nI think if you entered trades today and closed your computer and never looked for 6 months you should be pleasantly surprised when you return, but its not that simple. Between now and then there will be chop and volatility to look after that could give huge swings in positions.\r\n\r\nLast year I was hopeful, in fact very positive on the fact that we should have directional markets. With 6/7 weeks of the year gone I can’t see it happening any time soon. Painful as it is chop-chop appears the way forward for now at least.\r\n\r\nThe one fact I do know is, do not fight the central banks. Even if you think their policies were dreamed up on the back of a fag (cigarette) packet. They have more money than you and they can print even more.\r\n\r\nThere was an article written last week by Mehreen Khan about negative interest rates being a “dangerous experiment”, well worth a read. We are in transition and it will be choppy until boundaries and directions are finalized.\r\n\r\nAs I state at the end of my blog each week. Forex trading is about longevity, survival, also knowing when to be in the market but even better when NOT to be in the market.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) EXCLUSIVE CONTENT:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(This area contains exclusive content for PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) subscribers)\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n	<li><strong> COMING UP THIS WEEK:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5.1: THIS WEEK’S FOREX NEWS THAT INTERESTS ME:</u>\r\n\r\n(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market other than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to <a href=\"http://www.forexfactory.com\">www.forexfactory.com</a> and <a href=\"http://www.tradingeconomics.com\">www.tradingeconomics.com</a> for a more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).\r\nSUNDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: CHF – Thomas Jordan (SNB) speaks.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: GBP – GDP.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: USD – GDP.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>5.1: THE USD MAJORS SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS: </u>\r\n\r\n(In this section I have as usual kept my charts as minimalist as possible. With regards to charting in my opinion less is more!! I hope that they are clear. All readers regardless of level of experience should be able to follow my thoughts from my comments to the levels on the charts with ease)\r\n\r\nMy comments are contained on the charts.\r\n\r\nEUR/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.1229\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/the-new-world-fx-order/eurusd-d-20022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7325\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7325\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/EURUSD-D-20022016-1024x505.png\" alt=\"EURUSD  D 20022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"505\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.44404\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/the-new-world-fx-order/gbpusd-d-20022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7326\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7326\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/GBPUSD-D-20022016-1024x505.png\" alt=\"GBPUSD D 20022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"505\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.7147\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/the-new-world-fx-order/audusd-d-20022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7324\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7324\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/AUDUSD-D-20022016-1024x505.png\" alt=\"AUDUSD D 20022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"505\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.6627\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/the-new-world-fx-order/nzdusd-d-20022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7327\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7327\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/NZDUSD-D-20022016-1024x505.png\" alt=\"NZDUSD D 20022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"505\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.3766\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/the-new-world-fx-order/usdcad-d-20022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7328\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7328\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCAD-D-20022016-1024x505.png\" alt=\"USDCAD D 20022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"505\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF - Weekly Closing Price: 0.9891\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/the-new-world-fx-order/usdchf-d-20022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7329\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7329\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCHF-D-20022016-1024x505.png\" alt=\"USDCHF D 20022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"505\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY - Weekly Closing Price: 112.54\r\n\r\n<u><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/the-new-world-fx-order/usdjpy-d-20022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7330\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7330\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDJPY-D-20022016-1024x505.png\" alt=\"USDJPY D 20022016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"505\" /></a></u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.3: CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nNo real heavy news agenda items this week except for U.S. GDP on Friday, which will be eagerly awaited and scrutinized to death.\r\n\r\nAs Forex traders we are going to be hostages of equities and oil….. what’s new!\r\n\r\nBe savvy…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nTake care,\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nDATE: 20<sup>h</sup> February 2016\r\nBLOG REFERENCE: DRIVE THRU #189\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','THE NEW 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17:45:41','',6965,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/PART2-27022016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(7345,1,'2016-02-27 17:15:19','2016-02-27 22:15:19','','AUDUSDDaily27022016','','inherit','open','closed','','audusddaily27022016','','','2016-02-28 12:33:41','2016-02-28 17:33:41','',7352,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/AUDUSDDaily27022016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(7346,1,'2016-02-27 17:15:22','2016-02-27 22:15:22','','EURUSDDaily27022016','','inherit','open','closed','','eurusddaily27022016','','','2016-02-28 12:33:07','2016-02-28 17:33:07','',7352,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/EURUSDDaily27022016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(7347,1,'2016-02-27 17:15:25','2016-02-27 22:15:25','','GBPUSDMonthly27022016','','inherit','open','closed','','gbpusdmonthly27022016','','','2016-02-28 12:33:27','2016-02-28 17:33:27','',7352,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/GBPUSDMonthly27022016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(7348,1,'2016-02-27 17:15:27','2016-02-27 22:15:27','','NZDUSDDaily27022016','','inherit','open','closed','','nzdusddaily27022016','','','2016-02-28 12:33:54','2016-02-28 17:33:54','',7352,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/NZDUSDDaily27022016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(7349,1,'2016-02-27 17:15:30','2016-02-27 22:15:30','','USDCADDaily27022016','','inherit','open','closed','','usdcaddaily27022016','','','2016-02-28 12:34:10','2016-02-28 17:34:10','',7352,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCADDaily27022016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(7350,1,'2016-02-27 17:15:32','2016-02-27 22:15:32','','USDCHFDaily27022016','','inherit','open','closed','','usdchfdaily27022016','','','2016-02-28 12:34:26','2016-02-28 17:34:26','',7352,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCHFDaily27022016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(7351,1,'2016-02-27 17:15:35','2016-02-27 22:15:35','','USDJPYDaily27022016','','inherit','open','closed','','usdjpydaily27022016','','','2016-02-28 12:34:40','2016-02-28 17:34:40','',7352,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDJPYDaily27022016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(7352,1,'2016-02-28 12:37:34','2016-02-28 17:37:34','<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li><strong> INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nLast week was my worst week in Forex Trading since I started trading for a number of reasons.\r\n\r\nFirstly, the week opened with Boris Johnson (Lord Mayor of London), announcing hours before the market opened that he would be in favour of a BREXIT. I was quite active on twitter at the time about the fact the Boris although being Mayor of London is a little eccentric, and on the basis that many years ago, wanted the government to take VAT off bicycle puncture repair kits, would not carry much sway. It also appeared that, the Mayor of London, the largest financial capital in Europe supporting the BREXIT would seem a little weird to say the least.\r\n\r\nThe facts were the market liked his BREXIT announcement and whoosh the GBP was hit across the board. I had positions long GBP/NZD. My wife and I were away from home; the initial GAP lower was partially filled, so I felt that the “Boris” effect was nullified. Returning home I was well under water looking at Fibonacci levels and after a huge fall, the GBP/NZD stabilized. These were longer-term trades and the pair had basically moved to the limits of the monthly ATR range. For a couple of days it looked like they were maintaining this level and consolidating the position. This pair moves on average in excess of 900 pips a month, 200/300 in a day can be normal.\r\n\r\nSo, in summary, not happy to be so far away from the market but in reality this pair does need a lot of wiggle room.\r\n\r\nSecondly, living just outside of Montreal, we are prone to severe weather. On Wednesday evening we started receiving severe freezing rain (an ice storm), which resulted in over 260 areas of power outages affecting over 250,000 homes in the immediate Montreal area due to the weight of the ice on power cables etc. No electricity, no Internet connections. My backups were not working, everything was frozen out! Even the cell phone (mobile) connection was on emergency only.\r\n\r\nI trade with stops but they are wide to keep me in trades to avoid the chop and due to the fact that the markets are now operating on much less liquidity they need to be wider. (I was going to write about FX MARKET LIQUIDITY this week but that has been postponed, I have 4 topics on ice now).\r\n\r\nThursday afternoon I went to a friend’s home to charge up devices and check on matters Forex. At this point I had suffered two big losses on the GBP/NZD as I had been taken, other trades I moved stops to either keep me in or take me out at just below or above the next levels of Fibonacci support or resistance. I was sacrificing trades… to coin a phrase; I was not a happy bunny.\r\n\r\nReturning home, I found out that the local community centre had opened to support the locals and at the same time that we would not have power restored for at least another 30 hours! You have to bear in mind we are at -10/-15 degrees Celsius with no heat, or power. This is why we have two Labradors (Ozzy &amp; Aoife (Eefa)); you can cuddle the dogs, one each, to keep warm!\r\n\r\nIn the cold, no computers, no power, listening to an emergency self-cranking radio for news in candlelight. Romantic maybe; but all the time I knew that there was a good chance that I was probably hemorrhaging cash and pips from my accounts. The hydro (power) came back earlier than anticipated but then the ISP’s were not functioning 100%. Connections to both the hydro and ISP’s on Friday during the day were unreliable and came and went with frequency. It was just impossible to do anything. I tried to communicate about stops and taking profits and losses. It was as I tweeted to subscribers a complete nightmare.\r\n\r\nComing next on the horizon is about 30 cms of snow over the next 7 days, so not sure what excitement lies ahead with this weather front!\r\n\r\nIn summary, I took a hit cash wise and on pips (over 2,000) as trades were sacrificed or stops were taken. This was my own version of the EUR/CHF peg removal from just over a year ago. I bounced back from that event, like I will bounce back from this one.\r\n\r\nSo, the phrase is I am charged up like a “Duracell Bunny” ready to go… but no revenge trading!\r\n\r\nOn a happier note the February PREMIUM SERVICE (SILVER) winner is Alex from the UK (<a href=\"mailto:alex@jxxxxx-xxxxxxxxxx.co.uk\">alex@jxxxxx-xxxxxxxxxx.co.uk</a>). All the communications and information has been sent. I hope that Alex enjoys my March trading suggestions; I am fired up and raring to go.\r\n\r\nJust to remind you; you could be the next winner of a free PREMIUM SERVICE (SILVER) subscription; if you subscribe to receive this free blog via my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nYou are automatically entered into a free monthly draw, once you’ve subscribed. Each month during 2016 one lucky blog subscriber will receive a free subscription to the PREMIUM SERVICE (SILVER).\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>2.1: WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber, fee based trade set-up option for Forex traders regardless of experience or background. I provide traders suggested trades, and some market commentary related to open trades or factors within the overall market that have my interest.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and the various trade styles plus how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nAdditional information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE you will require a PayPal account.\r\n\r\n<u>2.2: PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE THIS MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\nNET PIPS THIS MONTH SO FAR:            -1,531\r\nNET PIPS THIS YEAR SO FAR:                -132\r\n\r\nNET PIPS 2015        +10,686\r\nNET PIPS 2014        +11,209\r\n\r\n(I trade basically for 10 months a year. I do not trade from mid July through early September or mid December through early January).\r\n\r\nIf you want more data or detail about the performance and the tabs on my website landing page do not answer your questions, contact me directly and I will supply the trading data you require. There are NO secrets. There are many, many spreadsheets detailing performance trade by trade and by trade and by trading style, way too many to place in this blog. If you are interested in the PREMIUM SERVICE and want more information, all you have to do is ask.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.3: PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBER PROMOTION:</u>\r\n\r\nThis promotion ends tomorrow night.\r\n\r\nYou can check this out on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by clicking on the FX PROMOTIONS tab at the top of the page.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>3.1: LAST WEEK’S NEWS – MY THOUGHTS:</strong>\r\n\r\nIt was all about BREXIT at the start of the week. I was quite shocked that the EURO was not under as much pressure as the cable. The Brits potentially leaving the community is a big thing for the EUROZONE. I must admit to finding all the action in the cable a little weird.\r\n\r\nNow let me caveat that, the EUR/CHF nosed dived, so even with negative interest rates there was a flight to safety. The EUR/GBP moved higher as the GBP/USD moved lower so cross rate effects were at play. Plus at the same time market uncertainty was high and the JPY was strengthening as well creating an overall flight to safety in FX.\r\n\r\nI missed the GDP release in the U.S. at the end of the week, but the FED will no doubt be delighted that GDP was revised up to 1.0% from the previously released 0.7% for Q4 2015 (Q3 was 2.0%). The USD strengthened across the board, all day it was relentless.\r\n\r\nIt comes to something, not quite sure what when, the largest economy in the world had GDP at 1.0% and the market reaction, at least in FX is euphoric. What a strange, weird, crazy world we live in!\r\n\r\nThat is said, without any reference to the “circus” aka the U.S. GOP (Republican) Presidential Debate from last Thursday. If that is the best that the U.S. GOP has to offer as the “Leader” of the free world, God help us all.\r\n\r\nThere was nothing Presidential about the 2 hours I saw on a CNN repeat showing overnight. Frankly, that program was shown all around the world, if an American ever questions why the world views them as idiots and why the U.S. political process and government is viewed as dysfunctional here is the answer.\r\n\r\nIt was embarrassing to say the least and frankly the TV networks see it as sensationalism rather than what it actually is. Not one TV station has thought beyond the now, no in-depth thoughts, just a cheap media circus vying for viewer numbers to gain advertising revenue. It was awful. These people believe that they have what it takes to be a President, and I am really focused on Trump, Rubio and Cruz, zero respect for each other, it was childlike and if either of these three should become President…my God!\r\n\r\nIt was a reality TV show at it’s best or worst depending upon your viewpoint. I do not like to get too political in this blog, and the only reason I bring up that debate is that moving forward the market uncertainties will be huge.\r\n\r\nOn one hand you have Donald Trump way out in front with the Republican Party but his chequered history is starting to catch up. On the other side, there is a good chance it’s Hillary Clinton and she could be indicted ahead of the presidential campaign.\r\n\r\nThe GOP party machine must be pooping their pants at the moment. I would say in the coming months there will be smear campaigns and court battles ahead. Welcome to the “free world”, the worst of America will have its dirtiest underwear washed in public… guaranteed.\r\n\r\nIs this the best the U.S. has with a population of 300 million people?\r\n\r\nGood Lord, what a world we live in.\r\n\r\nNever mind “God Bless America”, it will be “God Help America”.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>3.2: WHAT’S ON MY MIND:</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>BREXIT - WTF</strong></p>\r\nHarold Wilson, the long gone Labour Prime Minister of the UK in the 1970’s and 80’s was famous for two quotes that resonate with me even now after so many years: -\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">“<strong>This will not affect the pound (GBP) in your pocket” – after sterling’s devaluation</strong>\r\n<strong>and</strong>\r\n<strong>“ A week is a long time in politics”</strong></p>\r\nA week ago David Cameron (UK Prime Minister), returned from Brussels waving papers in the air reminiscent of pictures from WWII, saying that we have a deal worthy of remaining in the European community. Cable rallied / shot up across the board, like a rat up a drainpipe.\r\n\r\n48 hours later Boris Johnson (Lord Mayor of London) holds a press conference on his doorstep outside his swanky London abode telling a gathered press that he has agonized over his thoughts and at the end of this torture he has decided that in his opinion, the best interests of the UK people are served if they are no longer connected to Europe and that he is in favour of a BREXIT.\r\n\r\nWTF – the Mayor of the Financial centre of Europe says boll**ks…f**k this for a game of soldiers.\r\n\r\nHe is entitled to his opinions, I have no issue with that at all, but take a step back and think about the ramifications. I am not going to dwell on this, enough has been and more will be written about the effects on the UK.\r\n\r\nBriefly, the gripes in the UK over Europe can probably be summed up in one word SOVEREIGNTY. The Brits who support BREXIT believe SOVEREIGNTY is just being continually eroded and at the same in return for losing more control over one’s own destiny you pay more each year into the EUROZONE coffers for this privilege. In recent months, Migration, Regulation, Costs of Membership of the EUROZONE about $80 million per day and reduced influence as the UK is not a single currency user have all fuelled the BREXIT calls.\r\n\r\nThe UK does NOT adopt the EUR (single currency) therefore they are not in the elite club at the heart of Europe. What influence can you have if you do not have a seat in the centre? This is a compelling argument.\r\n\r\nHere are a few of my initial thoughts: -\r\n\r\nCould $80 million a day be better spent?\r\n\r\nWithout EU regulation could the UK once again strike up better trade deals with China, U.S., the Commonwealth and even the EUROZONE?\r\n\r\nCould another variance of EFTA (The European Free Trade Association) be formulated for those countries in Europe but not in the EUROZONE?\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMoving forward…\r\n\r\nCould this be the beginning of the end of the EUROZONE, as we know it?\r\n\r\nThe EUROZONE existence is fragile at best. There is no union as I have written about many times over the past three years. On paper the concept of a unified Europe looks good but it has so many flaws and it was born in another bye-gone era when the world was different and expectations were different.\r\n\r\nThis is an article in itself for a future blog.\r\n\r\nAt the centre of BREXIT, I have mentioned SOVEREIGNTY but as with the failings of the EUROZONE we should also consider culture. Geographically, the English Channel has always kept the UK one step removed from continental Europe. The cultural divergence between the Mediterranean countries in the south and the powerhouses with money in the North has always been underestimated. The one size fits all approach has proved not to work. The Brits may have money like other Northern European countries but the way of life in the UK whilst cosmopolitan is different to that of France and Germany. Deep-rooted mistrust of the French is often joked and laughed about in pubs and over meals at dinner parties. The non-bending German approach, seen by most Brits is arrogance. The one thing that Brits love is pomp and ceremony if anyone can afford arrogance it\'s the Brits not the Germans.\r\n\r\nThe counter-balance argument is that Britain needs Europe, for trade, it is the UK’s biggest trading partner. This is business, price dominates and the EUROZONE will not cut off its nose to spite its face. Deals will still be done. Exports will still happen. Neither the UK nor the EUROZONE, which exports hugely to the UK, can afford a trade war.\r\n\r\nIt sounds like I am writing that a BREXIT would be good for the UK. My point is I believe the BREXIT if it were to happen late June when the UK referendum takes place, is bigger for the EUROZONE than it is for the UK.\r\n\r\nI will say one word – CONTAGION.\r\n\r\nI will revisit this subject in a future blog article.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nWhat’s next?\r\n\r\nAs Forex traders how will all this affect our trading?\r\n\r\n“A week is a long time in politics”, however, “Four months is a fecking lifetime in trading currencies”\r\n\r\nAlthough I was taken to the woodshed with my GBP/NZD longs, I am still holding some GBP/NZD long trades, for the very long-term, I might add.\r\n\r\nWhat do I think we should look at? It is very, very early but my thoughts at the moment, and, they could change are as follows: -\r\n\r\nObviously all BREXIT news will affect the GBP/USD directly and the crosses GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD and GBP/CAD will be very volatile. The AUD and NZD crosses are very tradable with “RISK ON or RISK OFF” and the GBP/CAD will be influenced as well with movements in crude oil.\r\n\r\nI am interested in the EUR/GBP and maybe the EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY and GBP/CHF. Why I hear you ask?\r\n\r\nEUR/GBP is liquid. It is often ignored. Since December last year it has appreciated about 5% as we moved from an ECB meltdown risk to a referendum risk. Is it the best barometer of risk? With regards to the Scottish referendum it was the trade to be in and many people, including myself missed it. Its direct European focus interests me.\r\n\r\nThe GBP/CHF is the inverted trade to the EUR/GBP and because of the CHF flight to safety trade it would be consistent with a direction. The EUR/CHF could also be traded for the same reasons. As with the EUR/GBP direct European based currencies may offer better directional consistencies.\r\n\r\nThe EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY are key pairs with regards to the trade relations between UK, Europe and Japan and sensitive to changes that can affect trading conditions.\r\n\r\nThere is no doubt in my mind if the BREXIT fails the GBP will rocket for two or three days on the news and as traders we should be long GBP/USD, GBP/AUD, GBP/CAD, GBP/CHF, GBP/NZD, GBP/JPY and short EUR/GBP. In addition the EUR/JPY long should be a good trade.\r\n\r\nShould the BREXIT vote win, there would be carnage…. blood all over computer screens and terminals. Not because of the fact the UK wants out of Europe, but due to pure and simple change and uncertainty.\r\n\r\nMarkets hate change… they certainly hate uncertainty… the keys drivers of any market would then rule… FEAR and GREED.\r\n\r\nThe markets would adjust over time, right now even JCB digger Mark Carney (BOE Governor) has admitted that plans are afoot in case of a BREXIT decision.\r\n\r\nIt will take time to exit. It will be volatile as things settle but life goes on. At least the UK is not going back to Sterling (GBP) from the Euro (EUR), which would have been more volatile and I would say that had the UK been a full member of the EUROZONE (with the Euro currency) that would have been the end of the single currency.\r\n\r\nI will revisit this topic on several occasions in the next four month.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) EXCLUSIVE CONTENT:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(This area contains exclusive content for PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) subscribers)\r\n\r\n<strong>4.1: THE PREMIUM SERVICE – TRADING REVIEW: </strong>\r\n\r\n(This section can cover a multitude of points / facts etc. Basically it’s a 360-degree review, which I think should interest subscribers):\r\n\r\nHoly Mother of God. I decided given the best information to hand and skimping at market news, rushing through chart analysis to let stops do their thing and basically acknowledge the fact that 2016 would start again for me from a pip perspective on March 1<sup>st</sup>. Even as I write this blog there is another huge storm coming in from the mid-west. Apart from bringing a reported 30cms of snow and high winds, I wonder what other joy it will bring?\r\n\r\nI complained last week about being bored. Now, I am frustrated and annoyed with the recent events and frankly being bored doesn’t seem that bad at the moment.\r\n\r\nI have a big challenge ahead.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>4.2: TRADE STYLE DEFINITIONS:</strong>\r\n\r\n<u>4.2.1: RADAR TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\nThese are pre-meditated entry trades set from either Fibonacci levels, pivot points or previous support and resistance based off a combination of horizontal or trend line support or resistance.\r\nThe goal is always if possible to swing trade these trades by establishing a position that if market conditions apply allow the trade to gather traction and develop into a longer-term position trade.\r\n\r\n<u>4.2.2: FLASH TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\nMainly simply, opportunist trades in LIVE market conditions. These trades are either based off a pullback strategy, a GIMME10 pips strategy, or off momentum in a trading pair at the time of entry.\r\nThe goal is to either take 10-30 pips or see a sufficient move to place a protective stop in place to see if a swing trade develops.\r\nSome FLASH TRADES may form part of an overall trading plan with a given currency pair, but the entry could not be made via a LIMIT ORDER.\r\n\r\nIn addition in 2016, some FLASH TRADES can be of a longer duration, with very specific goals.\r\n\r\n<u>4.2.3: FUNDAMENTAL TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\nThese will be trades based off my TRADING PLAN goals for trades in line with my longer-term market views.\r\nTrades in this area will use in addition Fibonacci levels, Pivot points, trend lines and prior support and resistance levels, weekly and monthly ATR’s (Average True Ranges) when setting Stop Loss levels.\r\nThese trades are hopefully of a longer-term nature. They will be initially “single-lot” sized trades due to the wider stop placements that will be applied.\r\n\r\n<u>4.2.4: PART-TIME TRADER TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\nThese trade set-ups are intended to have a longer-term trading perspective. They are not only targeted at traders who consider they are part-time Forex traders; obviously, all traders can of course take advantage. (My definition of a part-time trader is one who is only able to look at their computer screens, or, mobile devices to check trades two or three times a day).\r\n\r\nA key feature of these set-ups is that they have much wider than normal stops to allow for market swings and volatility. The trades therefore have a smaller position size to allow for the swings in volatility, but multiple trades in the same currency pair are added when the core trade has gained traction in the desired direction.\r\n\r\nMy goal is to have multiple trades open/live at any one time and maybe 2/3 open/live trades with the same currency pair. I will of course suggest to take some profits along the way, but hopefully at the same time letting trades run as far as possible.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>4.3: THE PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE SPREADSHEETS (INCLUDING LIVE &amp; LIMIT ORDER TRADES):</strong>\r\n\r\nFull and complete details surrounding these trades can be found inside the PREMIUM SERVICE on my website. These can be found on the spreadsheets on the website.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>4.4: REVIEW OF OPEN LIMIT ORDER TRADES NOT YET TRIGGERED:</strong>\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.1: RADAR LIMIT ORDER TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\nRT652 – GBP/USD:\r\nAfter the weeks huge drop in the cable, this level represents the only valid stopping point on its move lower. This trade missed by about 7/8 pips last Friday to trigger a 200-pip move lower once again. I will keep it in place for now, but I will review its validity early this week.\r\n\r\nRT654 – EUR/GBP:\r\nI will be reviewing this trade early this week. I do still believe that a move to 0.8000 is possible. As long as the GBP/USD is falling and cable is generally under pressure this trade should play out. The only caveat is how the EUR/USD behaves. Should the EUR/USD fall below 1.0900, then I will have to look at this trade again faster than anticipated.\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.2: FUNDAMENTAL LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n</u>\r\n\r\nFUN273 – EUR/USD:\r\nI have this trade just below the recent highs of 1.1473. I am not certain that this trade will trigger. We have Mario Draghi speaking Monday and the big EUROZONE growth revisions are on March 10<sup>th</sup>. I was hoping for a spike prior to this announcement. Fundamentally nothing has changed but on Friday last week the USD came back to life and strengthened across the board on the back of better than anticipated GDP numbers. I will keep this trade open until after Draghi has spoken.\r\n\r\nFUN274 – USD/CHF:\r\nOpposite to the EUR/USD. Longer-term I am still bullish this pair but if the EUR/USD spikes, this pair will fall and the lower the price the better the $$$ opportunity. I will review this trade at the same time as FUN273.\r\n\r\nFUN277 – AUD/NZD:\r\nA further set-up for longer-term view.\r\n\r\nFUN278 – GBP/NZD:\r\nAnother set-up to add to the longer-term trade; this one is set to trigger above trend line resistance.\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.3: PART-TIME TRADER LIMIT ORDER TRADES: </u>\r\n\r\nPART041 – USD/CHF:\r\nOpposite to the EUR/USD. Longer-term I am still bullish this pair but if the EUR/USD spikes, this pair will fall and the lower the price the better the $$$ opportunity. I will review this trade at the same time as PART042. This will be after Draghi speaks on March 10<sup>th</sup>.\r\n\r\nPART042 – EUR/USD:\r\nI have this trade just below the recent highs of 1.1473. I am not certain that this trade will trigger. We have Mario Draghi speaking Monday and the big EUROZONE growth revisions are on March 10<sup>th</sup>. I was hoping for a spike prior to this announcement. Fundamentally nothing has changed but I will hold off on doing anything until Draghi speaks on March 10<sup>th</sup>.\r\n\r\nPART044 – AUD/NZD:\r\nA further set-up for longer-term view.\r\n\r\nPART045 – GBP/NZD:\r\nAnother set-up to add to the longer-term trade; this one is set to trigger above trend line resistance\r\n\r\nPART048 – GBP/CHF:\r\nThis is almost like one of my ARMAGEDDON TRADES, I may be too greedy with the entrance level.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n	<li><strong> COMING UP THIS WEEK:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5.1: THIS WEEK’S FOREX NEWS THAT INTERESTS ME:</u>\r\n\r\n(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market other than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to <a href=\"http://www.forexfactory.com\">www.forexfactory.com</a> and <a href=\"http://www.tradingeconomics.com\">www.tradingeconomics.com</a> for a more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).\r\nSUNDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: AUD – Building Approvals &amp; RBA Rate Statement.\r\nMONDAY: CNY – Manufacturing PMi.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: GBP – Manufacturing PMi.\r\nTUESDAY: CAD – GDP.\r\nTUESDAY: NZD – GDT Dairy Auction Prices.\r\nTUESDAY: USD – ISM Manufacturing PMi.\r\nTUESDAY: AUD – GDP.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: GBP – Construction PMi.\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – ADP Non-Farm Employment Change.\r\nWEDNESDAY: AUD – Trade Balance.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: GBP – Services PMI.\r\nTHURSDAY: USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.\r\nTHURSDAY: AUD – Retail Sales.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: USD – Non-Farm Payrolls, Trade Balance and Unemployment Rate.\r\nFRIDAY: CAD – Trade Balance.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>5.1: THE USD MAJORS SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS: </u>\r\n\r\n(In this section I have as usual kept my charts as minimalist as possible. With regards to charting in my opinion less is more!! I hope that they are clear. All readers regardless of level of experience should be able to follow my thoughts from my comments to the levels on the charts with ease)\r\n\r\nMy comments are usually contained on the charts. However, this week my usual charting service is not responding and therefore my comments are below the charts for each currency pair.\r\n\r\nEUR/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.0927\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/eurusddaily27022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7346\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7346\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/EURUSDDaily27022016.png\" alt=\"EURUSDDaily27022016\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\nA nasty engulfing daily candle has been posted to end the week. We closed just on trend line support. The next Fibonacci level lower is at 1.0850, the 61.8% retracement. I would say that this is a key level to hold moving forward. A break of this level and we are heading to 1.0500 once again. Remember, we have Mario Draghi on March 10<sup>th</sup>. This meeting takes on even greater importance should this pair come under pressure at that time.\r\n\r\nGBP/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.3866\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/gbpusdmonthly27022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7347\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7347\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/GBPUSDMonthly27022016.png\" alt=\"GBPUSDMonthly27022016\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\nWhat can I add that hasn’t been added by umpteen analysts and commentators already? The cable is under real meltdown pressure and frankly using Fibonacci extensions and previous horizontal support levels is the best that I can do. 1.3775 offers a confluence of fibs, it’s too messy to put on this chart. After that we have 1.3660 and 1.3500, and after that to quote Alice Cooper we’re all off to hell on one bastard of a ride!!\r\n\r\nThis pair needs to break above 1.4050 to take the selling pressure off. That level seems a mile away.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.7121\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/audusddaily27022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7345\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7345\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/AUDUSDDaily27022016.png\" alt=\"AUDUSDDaily27022016\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\nA nice bearish engulfing candle to end the week. Beware though; there is a great deal of front line Australian data this week, the biggest being the RBA Rate Statement late Monday evening (EST).\r\n\r\nWithout doubt this pair will suffer if commodity prices come under pressure once again and we also note that China PMi data is also out on Monday evening before the RBA announcement.\r\n\r\nThis is a big week for this pair. Support at 0.7000 will be big and if you look at the chart above you will see wicks above the horizontal resistance line at 0.7245 these indicate false breakouts. This is bearish in my eyes.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.6627\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/nzdusddaily27022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7348\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7348\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/NZDUSDDaily27022016.png\" alt=\"NZDUSDDaily27022016\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\nLooking forward, the support level of 0.6600 will be big support not for just being a round number but it is also the 38.2% Fibonacci support level. Similar to the AUD/USD, a false breakout above previous good resistance is bearish in my eyes. The Dairy auction prices on Tuesday will be interesting to follow and also the RBA statement will have influence on future RBNZ policy moves as well.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.3510\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/usdcaddaily27022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7349\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7349\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCADDaily27022016.png\" alt=\"USDCADDaily27022016\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\nThe 61.8% support at 1.3550 has given way and this pair looks bearish on the daily chart. The USD/CAD is now not as responsive to oil prices as it has been in the past. If oil blasts higher this pair will drop like a lead balloon and the cross rates will go with it.\r\n\r\nFor now, I still feel that the oil relationship will come back sooner rather than later and with a Canadian budget due plus another BOC meeting shortly after (I think), do not be surprised if these two events combined weaken the CAD$.\r\n\r\nFor now I feel bearish the pair, but longer term knowing what I do know about the Canadian economy is that it is under pressure everywhere apart from Toronto and Vancouver and expect a weak CAD moving forward.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF - Weekly Closing Price: 0.9955\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/usdchfdaily27022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7350\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7350\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCHFDaily27022016.png\" alt=\"USDCHFDaily27022016\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\nI like being long this pair. I always feel like I am trading if I am selling the CHF currency, excepting peg removal day.\r\n\r\nShould the EUR/USD continue to move lower, this pair should head higher unless a flight to safety trade takes over in Europe due to all the geopolitical news around. 1.0030 (61.8% Fibonacci) is a key level to pass and recent trend highs of 1.0250 will be difficult to pass unless the EUR/USD takes a nosedive.\r\n\r\nI have an ARMAGEDDON long trade set up below 0.9500. What a wonderful mind I have just in case the wheels fall off the bus!!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY - Weekly Closing Price: 113.96\r\n\r\n<u><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/usdjpydaily27022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7351\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7351\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDJPYDaily27022016.png\" alt=\"USDJPYDaily27022016\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a></u>\r\n\r\nI have marked the 38% retracement at 115.00. I believe that is a great area to enter short. If that does not hold, try again at 116.00. Looking at the past few days 115.00 has held and so the risk / reward looks good.\r\n\r\nAlthough not on this chart there is a head and shoulders measured move to about 105.50 available once this pair breaks below 110.80.\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3: CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nA big week for news lies ahead of us.\r\n\r\nObviously, U.S. Non-Farm Employment data on Friday is the big end to the week.\r\n\r\nThere is a great deal of Australian news this week starting with the RBA on Monday evening (2230 EST). This will be a big week down under, as the comments from Glenn Stevens will be examined more closely than usual given recent comments by his sidekick Edwards stating that RBA would be more comfortable with the AUD/USD exchange rate around 0.6500.\r\n\r\nThe cable will be in the news a great deal this week as the political debate over BREXIT or not to BREXIT will gather some steam.\r\n\r\nI should also be watchful over risk sentiment this week. Should the commodity area come under pressure the USD will strengthen once again and before we know it we could be back up at 100.00 again if we see a very bullish and positive NFP number.\r\n\r\nIt is the circle of life FX style, because a bullish NFP and bullish USD will bring back commentary relating to how many damn rate hikes there could be by the FED in 2016! Just when you thought it was safe to step out of the door, all the bloody CNBC and BLOOMBERG contributors spouting off I told you so will come crawling out from under their rocks again…\r\n\r\nBy the way I told you so as well…I am still in the camp of 3 / 4 rate increases this year, I believe that Janet Yellen has at least a 1.0% goal in mind. Holy Mother of God, all these shenanigans over the biggest economy in the world where we are constantly being told everything is so damn brilliant we struggle to get off zirp… go figure. It’s like a GOP debate full of cow, camel and bullsh*t.\r\n\r\nBe careful and ever watchful on oil. The CAD is acting wild like its nickname the “loonie”. Do not worry though, the Canadian politicians who have more holidays than workdays are back in the Ottawa parliament and soon the eagerly awaited budget by new Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will be released. Together with masterly inactivity by Stephen Poloz at the BOC, I predict the USD/CAD at 1.5000+ by the summer, with QE (Quantitative Easing) and negative interest rates also in play.\r\n\r\nBe savvy…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nTake care,\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>','BREXIT - WTF','','publish','open','closed','','brexit-wtf','','','2016-02-28 12:37:34','2016-02-28 17:37:34','',0,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?post_type=member_posts&#038;p=7352',0,'member_posts','',0),(7353,1,'2016-02-28 12:35:34','2016-02-28 17:35:34','<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li><strong> INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nLast week was my worst week in Forex Trading since I started trading for a number of reasons.\r\n\r\nFirstly, the week opened with Boris Johnson (Lord Mayor of London), announcing hours before the market opened that he would be in favour of a BREXIT. I was quite active on twitter at the time about the fact the Boris although being Mayor of London is a little eccentric, and on the basis that many years ago, wanted the government to take VAT off bicycle puncture repair kits, would not carry much sway. It also appeared that, the Mayor of London, the largest financial capital in Europe supporting the BREXIT would seem a little weird to say the least.\r\n\r\nThe facts were the market liked his BREXIT announcement and whoosh the GBP was hit across the board. I had positions long GBP/NZD. My wife and I were away from home; the initial GAP lower was partially filled, so I felt that the “Boris” effect was nullified. Returning home I was well under water looking at Fibonacci levels and after a huge fall, the GBP/NZD stabilized. These were longer-term trades and the pair had basically moved to the limits of the monthly ATR range. For a couple of days it looked like they were maintaining this level and consolidating the position. This pair moves on average in excess of 900 pips a month, 200/300 in a day can be normal.\r\n\r\nSo, in summary, not happy to be so far away from the market but in reality this pair does need a lot of wiggle room.\r\n\r\nSecondly, living just outside of Montreal, we are prone to severe weather. On Wednesday evening we started receiving severe freezing rain (an ice storm), which resulted in over 260 areas of power outages affecting over 250,000 homes in the immediate Montreal area due to the weight of the ice on power cables etc. No electricity, no Internet connections. My backups were not working, everything was frozen out! Even the cell phone (mobile) connection was on emergency only.\r\n\r\nI trade with stops but they are wide to keep me in trades to avoid the chop and due to the fact that the markets are now operating on much less liquidity they need to be wider. (I was going to write about FX MARKET LIQUIDITY this week but that has been postponed, I have 4 topics on ice now).\r\n\r\nThursday afternoon I went to a friend’s home to charge up devices and check on matters Forex. At this point I had suffered two big losses on the GBP/NZD as I had been taken, other trades I moved stops to either keep me in or take me out at just below or above the next levels of Fibonacci support or resistance. I was sacrificing trades… to coin a phrase; I was not a happy bunny.\r\n\r\nReturning home, I found out that the local community centre had opened to support the locals and at the same time that we would not have power restored for at least another 30 hours! You have to bear in mind we are at -10/-15 degrees Celsius with no heat, or power. This is why we have two Labradors (Ozzy &amp; Aoife (Eefa)); you can cuddle the dogs, one each, to keep warm!\r\n\r\nIn the cold, no computers, no power, listening to an emergency self-cranking radio for news in candlelight. Romantic maybe; but all the time I knew that there was a good chance that I was probably hemorrhaging cash and pips from my accounts. The hydro (power) came back earlier than anticipated but then the ISP’s were not functioning 100%. Connections to both the hydro and ISP’s on Friday during the day were unreliable and came and went with frequency. It was just impossible to do anything. I tried to communicate about stops and taking profits and losses. It was as I tweeted to subscribers a complete nightmare.\r\n\r\nComing next on the horizon is about 30 cms of snow over the next 7 days, so not sure what excitement lies ahead with this weather front!\r\n\r\nIn summary, I took a hit cash wise and on pips (over 2,000) as trades were sacrificed or stops were taken. This was my own version of the EUR/CHF peg removal from just over a year ago. I bounced back from that event, like I will bounce back from this one.\r\n\r\nSo, the phrase is I am charged up like a “Duracell Bunny” ready to go… but no revenge trading!\r\n\r\nOn a happier note the February PREMIUM SERVICE (SILVER) winner is Alex from the UK (<a href=\"mailto:alex@jxxxxx-xxxxxxxxxx.co.uk\">alex@jxxxxx-xxxxxxxxxx.co.uk</a>). All the communications and information has been sent. I hope that Alex enjoys my March trading suggestions; I am fired up and raring to go.\r\n\r\nJust to remind you; you could be the next winner of a free PREMIUM SERVICE (SILVER) subscription; if you subscribe to receive this free blog via my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nYou are automatically entered into a free monthly draw, once you’ve subscribed. Each month during 2016 one lucky blog subscriber will receive a free subscription to the PREMIUM SERVICE (SILVER).\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>2.1: WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber, fee based trade set-up option for Forex traders regardless of experience or background. I provide traders suggested trades, and some market commentary related to open trades or factors within the overall market that have my interest.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and the various trade styles plus how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nAdditional information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE you will require a PayPal account.\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u>2.2: PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE THIS MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\nNET PIPS THIS MONTH SO FAR:            -1,531\r\nNET PIPS THIS YEAR SO FAR:                -132\r\n\r\nNET PIPS 2015        +10,686\r\nNET PIPS 2014        +11,209\r\n\r\n(I trade basically for 10 months a year. I do not trade from mid July through early September or mid December through early January).\r\n\r\nIf you want more data or detail about the performance and the tabs on my website landing page do not answer your questions, contact me directly and I will supply the trading data you require. There are NO secrets. There are many, many spreadsheets detailing performance trade by trade and by trade and by trading style, way too many to place in this blog. If you are interested in the PREMIUM SERVICE and want more information, all you have to do is ask.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.3: PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBER PROMOTION:</u>\r\n\r\nThis promotion ends tomorrow night.\r\n\r\nYou can check this out on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by clicking on the FX PROMOTIONS tab at the top of the page.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>3.1: LAST WEEK’S NEWS – MY THOUGHTS:</strong>\r\n\r\nIt was all about BREXIT at the start of the week. I was quite shocked that the EURO was not under as much pressure as the cable. The Brits potentially leaving the community is a big thing for the EUROZONE. I must admit to finding all the action in the cable a little weird.\r\n\r\nNow let me caveat that, the EUR/CHF nosed dived, so even with negative interest rates there was a flight to safety. The EUR/GBP moved higher as the GBP/USD moved lower so cross rate effects were at play. Plus at the same time market uncertainty was high and the JPY was strengthening as well creating an overall flight to safety in FX.\r\n\r\nI missed the GDP release in the U.S. at the end of the week, but the FED will no doubt be delighted that GDP was revised up to 1.0% from the previously released 0.7% for Q4 2015 (Q3 was 2.0%). The USD strengthened across the board, all day it was relentless.\r\n\r\nIt comes to something, not quite sure what when, the largest economy in the world had GDP at 1.0% and the market reaction, at least in FX is euphoric. What a strange, weird, crazy world we live in!\r\n\r\nThat is said, without any reference to the “circus” aka the U.S. GOP (Republican) Presidential Debate from last Thursday. If that is the best that the U.S. GOP has to offer as the “Leader” of the free world, God help us all.\r\n\r\nThere was nothing Presidential about the 2 hours I saw on a CNN repeat showing overnight. Frankly, that program was shown all around the world, if an American ever questions why the world views them as idiots and why the U.S. political process and government is viewed as dysfunctional here is the answer.\r\n\r\nIt was embarrassing to say the least and frankly the TV networks see it as sensationalism rather than what it actually is. Not one TV station has thought beyond the now, no in-depth thoughts, just a cheap media circus vying for viewer numbers to gain advertising revenue. It was awful. These people believe that they have what it takes to be a President, and I am really focused on Trump, Rubio and Cruz, zero respect for each other, it was childlike and if either of these three should become President…my God!\r\n\r\nIt was a reality TV show at it’s best or worst depending upon your viewpoint. I do not like to get too political in this blog, and the only reason I bring up that debate is that moving forward the market uncertainties will be huge.\r\n\r\nOn one hand you have Donald Trump way out in front with the Republican Party but his chequered history is starting to catch up. On the other side, there is a good chance it’s Hillary Clinton and she could be indicted ahead of the presidential campaign.\r\n\r\nThe GOP party machine must be pooping their pants at the moment. I would say in the coming months there will be smear campaigns and court battles ahead. Welcome to the “free world”, the worst of America will have its dirtiest underwear washed in public… guaranteed.\r\n\r\nIs this the best the U.S. has with a population of 300 million people?\r\n\r\nGood Lord, what a world we live in.\r\n\r\nNever mind “God Bless America”, it will be “God Help America”.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>3.2: WHAT’S ON MY MIND:</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>BREXIT - WTF</strong></p>\r\nHarold Wilson, the long gone Labour Prime Minister of the UK in the 1970’s and 80’s was famous for two quotes that resonate with me even now after so many years: -\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">“<strong>This will not affect the pound (GBP) in your pocket” – after sterling’s devaluation</strong>\r\n<strong>and</strong>\r\n<strong>“ A week is a long time in politics”</strong></p>\r\nA week ago David Cameron (UK Prime Minister), returned from Brussels waving papers in the air reminiscent of pictures from WWII, saying that we have a deal worthy of remaining in the European community. Cable rallied / shot up across the board, like a rat up a drainpipe.\r\n\r\n48 hours later Boris Johnson (Lord Mayor of London) holds a press conference on his doorstep outside his swanky London abode telling a gathered press that he has agonized over his thoughts and at the end of this torture he has decided that in his opinion, the best interests of the UK people are served if they are no longer connected to Europe and that he is in favour of a BREXIT.\r\n\r\nWTF – the Mayor of the Financial centre of Europe says boll**ks…f**k this for a game of soldiers.\r\n\r\nHe is entitled to his opinions, I have no issue with that at all, but take a step back and think about the ramifications. I am not going to dwell on this, enough has been and more will be written about the effects on the UK.\r\n\r\nBriefly, the gripes in the UK over Europe can probably be summed up in one word SOVEREIGNTY. The Brits who support BREXIT believe SOVEREIGNTY is just being continually eroded and at the same in return for losing more control over one’s own destiny you pay more each year into the EUROZONE coffers for this privilege. In recent months, Migration, Regulation, Costs of Membership of the EUROZONE about $80 million per day and reduced influence as the UK is not a single currency user have all fuelled the BREXIT calls.\r\n\r\nThe UK does NOT adopt the EUR (single currency) therefore they are not in the elite club at the heart of Europe. What influence can you have if you do not have a seat in the centre? This is a compelling argument.\r\n\r\nHere are a few of my initial thoughts: -\r\n\r\nCould $80 million a day be better spent?\r\n\r\nWithout EU regulation could the UK once again strike up better trade deals with China, U.S., the Commonwealth and even the EUROZONE?\r\n\r\nCould another variance of EFTA (The European Free Trade Association) be formulated for those countries in Europe but not in the EUROZONE?\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMoving forward…\r\n\r\nCould this be the beginning of the end of the EUROZONE, as we know it?\r\n\r\nThe EUROZONE existence is fragile at best. There is no union as I have written about many times over the past three years. On paper the concept of a unified Europe looks good but it has so many flaws and it was born in another bye-gone era when the world was different and expectations were different.\r\n\r\nThis is an article in itself for a future blog.\r\n\r\nAt the centre of BREXIT, I have mentioned SOVEREIGNTY but as with the failings of the EUROZONE we should also consider culture. Geographically, the English Channel has always kept the UK one step removed from continental Europe. The cultural divergence between the Mediterranean countries in the south and the powerhouses with money in the North has always been underestimated. The one size fits all approach has proved not to work. The Brits may have money like other Northern European countries but the way of life in the UK whilst cosmopolitan is different to that of France and Germany. Deep-rooted mistrust of the French is often joked and laughed about in pubs and over meals at dinner parties. The non-bending German approach, seen by most Brits is arrogance. The one thing that Brits love is pomp and ceremony if anyone can afford arrogance it\'s the Brits not the Germans.\r\n\r\nThe counter-balance argument is that Britain needs Europe, for trade, it is the UK’s biggest trading partner. This is business, price dominates and the EUROZONE will not cut off its nose to spite its face. Deals will still be done. Exports will still happen. Neither the UK nor the EUROZONE, which exports hugely to the UK, can afford a trade war.\r\n\r\nIt sounds like I am writing that a BREXIT would be good for the UK. My point is I believe the BREXIT if it were to happen late June when the UK referendum takes place, is bigger for the EUROZONE than it is for the UK.\r\n\r\nI will say one word – CONTAGION.\r\n\r\nI will revisit this subject in a future blog article.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nWhat’s next?\r\n\r\nAs Forex traders how will all this affect our trading?\r\n\r\n“A week is a long time in politics”, however, “Four months is a fecking lifetime in trading currencies”\r\n\r\nAlthough I was taken to the woodshed with my GBP/NZD longs, I am still holding some GBP/NZD long trades, for the very long-term, I might add.\r\n\r\nWhat do I think we should look at? It is very, very early but my thoughts at the moment, and, they could change are as follows: -\r\n\r\nObviously all BREXIT news will affect the GBP/USD directly and the crosses GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD and GBP/CAD will be very volatile. The AUD and NZD crosses are very tradable with “RISK ON or RISK OFF” and the GBP/CAD will be influenced as well with movements in crude oil.\r\n\r\nI am interested in the EUR/GBP and maybe the EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY and GBP/CHF. Why I hear you ask?\r\n\r\nEUR/GBP is liquid. It is often ignored. Since December last year it has appreciated about 5% as we moved from an ECB meltdown risk to a referendum risk. Is it the best barometer of risk? With regards to the Scottish referendum it was the trade to be in and many people, including myself missed it. Its direct European focus interests me.\r\n\r\nThe GBP/CHF is the inverted trade to the EUR/GBP and because of the CHF flight to safety trade it would be consistent with a direction. The EUR/CHF could also be traded for the same reasons. As with the EUR/GBP direct European based currencies may offer better directional consistencies.\r\n\r\nThe EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY are key pairs with regards to the trade relations between UK, Europe and Japan and sensitive to changes that can affect trading conditions.\r\n\r\nThere is no doubt in my mind if the BREXIT fails the GBP will rocket for two or three days on the news and as traders we should be long GBP/USD, GBP/AUD, GBP/CAD, GBP/CHF, GBP/NZD, GBP/JPY and short EUR/GBP. In addition the EUR/JPY long should be a good trade.\r\n\r\nShould the BREXIT vote win, there would be carnage…. blood all over computer screens and terminals. Not because of the fact the UK wants out of Europe, but due to pure and simple change and uncertainty.\r\n\r\nMarkets hate change… they certainly hate uncertainty… the keys drivers of any market would then rule… FEAR and GREED.\r\n\r\nThe markets would adjust over time, right now even JCB digger Mark Carney (BOE Governor) has admitted that plans are afoot in case of a BREXIT decision.\r\n\r\nIt will take time to exit. It will be volatile as things settle but life goes on. At least the UK is not going back to Sterling (GBP) from the Euro (EUR), which would have been more volatile and I would say that had the UK been a full member of the EUROZONE (with the Euro currency) that would have been the end of the single currency.\r\n\r\nI will revisit this topic on several occasions in the next four month.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) EXCLUSIVE CONTENT:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(This area contains exclusive content for PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) subscribers)\r\n\r\n<strong>4.1: THE PREMIUM SERVICE – TRADING REVIEW: </strong>\r\n\r\n(This section can cover a multitude of points / facts etc. Basically it’s a 360-degree review, which I think should interest subscribers):\r\n\r\nHoly Mother of God. I decided given the best information to hand and skimping at market news, rushing through chart analysis to let stops do their thing and basically acknowledge the fact that 2016 would start again for me from a pip perspective on March 1<sup>st</sup>. Even as I write this blog there is another huge storm coming in from the mid-west. Apart from bringing a reported 30cms of snow and high winds, I wonder what other joy it will bring?\r\n\r\nI complained last week about being bored. Now, I am frustrated and annoyed with the recent events and frankly being bored doesn’t seem that bad at the moment.\r\n\r\nI have a big challenge ahead.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>4.2: TRADE STYLE DEFINITIONS:</strong>\r\n\r\n<u>4.2.1: RADAR TRADES:\r\n\r\n</u>These are pre-meditated entry trades set from either Fibonacci levels, pivot points or previous support and resistance based off a combination of horizontal or trend line support or resistance.\r\nThe goal is always if possible to swing trade these trades by establishing a position that if market conditions apply allow the trade to gather traction and develop into a longer-term position trade.\r\n\r\n<u>4.2.2: FLASH TRADES:\r\n\r\n</u>Mainly simply, opportunist trades in LIVE market conditions. These trades are either based off a pullback strategy, a GIMME10 pips strategy, or off momentum in a trading pair at the time of entry.\r\nThe goal is to either take 10-30 pips or see a sufficient move to place a protective stop in place to see if a swing trade develops.\r\nSome FLASH TRADES may form part of an overall trading plan with a given currency pair, but the entry could not be made via a LIMIT ORDER.\r\n\r\nIn addition in 2016, some FLASH TRADES can be of a longer duration, with very specific goals.\r\n\r\n<u>4.2.3: FUNDAMENTAL TRADES:\r\n\r\n</u>These will be trades based off my TRADING PLAN goals for trades in line with my longer-term market views.\r\nTrades in this area will use in addition Fibonacci levels, Pivot points, trend lines and prior support and resistance levels, weekly and monthly ATR’s (Average True Ranges) when setting Stop Loss levels.\r\nThese trades are hopefully of a longer-term nature. They will be initially “single-lot” sized trades due to the wider stop placements that will be applied.\r\n\r\n<u>4.2.4: PART-TIME TRADER TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\nThese trade set-ups are intended to have a longer-term trading perspective. They are not only targeted at traders who consider they are part-time Forex traders; obviously, all traders can of course take advantage. (My definition of a part-time trader is one who is only able to look at their computer screens, or, mobile devices to check trades two or three times a day).\r\n\r\nA key feature of these set-ups is that they have much wider than normal stops to allow for market swings and volatility. The trades therefore have a smaller position size to allow for the swings in volatility, but multiple trades in the same currency pair are added when the core trade has gained traction in the desired direction.\r\n\r\nMy goal is to have multiple trades open/live at any one time and maybe 2/3 open/live trades with the same currency pair. I will of course suggest to take some profits along the way, but hopefully at the same time letting trades run as far as possible.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>4.3: THE PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE SPREADSHEETS (INCLUDING LIVE &amp; LIMIT ORDER TRADES):</strong>\r\n\r\nFull and complete details surrounding these trades can be found inside the PREMIUM SERVICE on my website. These can be found on the spreadsheets on the website.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>4.4: REVIEW OF OPEN LIMIT ORDER TRADES NOT YET TRIGGERED:</strong>\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.1: RADAR LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n\r\n</u>RT652 – GBP/USD:\r\nAfter the weeks huge drop in the cable, this level represents the only valid stopping point on its move lower. This trade missed by about 7/8 pips last Friday to trigger a 200-pip move lower once again. I will keep it in place for now, but I will review its validity early this week.\r\n\r\nRT654 – EUR/GBP:\r\nI will be reviewing this trade early this week. I do still believe that a move to 0.8000 is possible. As long as the GBP/USD is falling and cable is generally under pressure this trade should play out. The only caveat is how the EUR/USD behaves. Should the EUR/USD fall below 1.0900, then I will have to look at this trade again faster than anticipated.\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.2: FUNDAMENTAL LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n</u>\r\n\r\nFUN273 – EUR/USD:\r\nI have this trade just below the recent highs of 1.1473. I am not certain that this trade will trigger. We have Mario Draghi speaking Monday and the big EUROZONE growth revisions are on March 10<sup>th</sup>. I was hoping for a spike prior to this announcement. Fundamentally nothing has changed but on Friday last week the USD came back to life and strengthened across the board on the back of better than anticipated GDP numbers. I will keep this trade open until after Draghi has spoken.\r\n\r\nFUN274 – USD/CHF:\r\nOpposite to the EUR/USD. Longer-term I am still bullish this pair but if the EUR/USD spikes, this pair will fall and the lower the price the better the $$$ opportunity. I will review this trade at the same time as FUN273.\r\n\r\nFUN277 – AUD/NZD:\r\nA further set-up for longer-term view.\r\n\r\nFUN278 – GBP/NZD:\r\nAnother set-up to add to the longer-term trade; this one is set to trigger above trend line resistance.\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.3: PART-TIME TRADER LIMIT ORDER TRADES: </u>\r\n\r\nPART041 – USD/CHF:\r\nOpposite to the EUR/USD. Longer-term I am still bullish this pair but if the EUR/USD spikes, this pair will fall and the lower the price the better the $$$ opportunity. I will review this trade at the same time as PART042. This will be after Draghi speaks on March 10<sup>th</sup>.\r\n\r\nPART042 – EUR/USD:\r\nI have this trade just below the recent highs of 1.1473. I am not certain that this trade will trigger. We have Mario Draghi speaking Monday and the big EUROZONE growth revisions are on March 10<sup>th</sup>. I was hoping for a spike prior to this announcement. Fundamentally nothing has changed but I will hold off on doing anything until Draghi speaks on March 10<sup>th</sup>.\r\n\r\nPART044 – AUD/NZD:\r\nA further set-up for longer-term view.\r\n\r\nPART045 – GBP/NZD:\r\nAnother set-up to add to the longer-term trade; this one is set to trigger above trend line resistance\r\n\r\nPART048 – GBP/CHF:\r\nThis is almost like one of my ARMEGEDDON TRADES, I may be too greedy with the entrance level.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n	<li><strong> COMING UP THIS WEEK:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5.1: THIS WEEK’S FOREX NEWS THAT INTERESTS ME:</u>\r\n\r\n(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market other than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to <a href=\"http://www.forexfactory.com\">www.forexfactory.com</a> and <a href=\"http://www.tradingeconomics.com\">www.tradingeconomics.com</a> for a more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).\r\nSUNDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: AUD – Building Approvals &amp; RBA Rate Statement.\r\nMONDAY: CNY – Manufacturing PMi.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: GBP – Manufacturing PMi.\r\nTUESDAY: CAD – GDP.\r\nTUESDAY: NZD – GDT Dairy Auction Prices.\r\nTUESDAY: USD – ISM Manufacturing PMi.\r\nTUESDAY: AUD – GDP.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: GBP – Construction PMi.\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – ADP Non-Farm Employment Change.\r\nWEDNESDAY: AUD – Trade Balance.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: GBP – Services PMI.\r\nTHURSDAY: USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.\r\nTHURSDAY: AUD – Retail Sales.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: USD – Non-Farm Payrolls, Trade Balance and Unemployment Rate.\r\nFRIDAY: CAD – Trade Balance.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>5.1: THE USD MAJORS SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS: </u>\r\n\r\n(In this section I have as usual kept my charts as minimalist as possible. With regards to charting in my opinion less is more!! I hope that they are clear. All readers regardless of level of experience should be able to follow my thoughts from my comments to the levels on the charts with ease)\r\n\r\nMy comments are usually contained on the charts. However, this week my usual charting service is not responding and therefore my comments are below the charts for each currency pair.\r\n\r\nEUR/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.0927\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/eurusddaily27022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7346\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7346\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/EURUSDDaily27022016.png\" alt=\"EURUSDDaily27022016\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\nA nasty engulfing daily candle has been posted to end the week. We closed just on trend line support. The next Fibonacci level lower is at 1.0850, the 61.8% retracement. I would say that this is a key level to hold moving forward. A break of this level and we are heading to 1.0500 once again. Remember, we have Mario Draghi on March 10<sup>th</sup>. This meeting takes on even greater importance should this pair come under pressure at that time.\r\n\r\nGBP/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.3866\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/gbpusdmonthly27022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7347\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7347\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/GBPUSDMonthly27022016.png\" alt=\"GBPUSDMonthly27022016\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\nWhat can I add that hasn’t been added by umpteen analysts and commentators already? The cable is under real meltdown pressure and frankly using Fibonacci extensions and previous horizontal support levels is the best that I can do. 1.3775 offers a confluence of fibs, it’s too messy to put on this chart. After that we have 1.3660 and 1.3500, and after that to quote Alice Cooper we’re all off to hell on one bastard of a ride!!\r\n\r\nThis pair needs to break above 1.4050 to take the selling pressure off. That level seems a mile away.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.7121\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/audusddaily27022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7345\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7345\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/AUDUSDDaily27022016.png\" alt=\"AUDUSDDaily27022016\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\nA nice bearish engulfing candle to end the week. Beware though; there is a great deal of front line Australian data this week, the biggest being the RBA Rate Statement late Monday evening (EST).\r\n\r\nWithout doubt this pair will suffer if commodity prices come under pressure once again and we also note that China PMi data is also out on Monday evening before the RBA announcement.\r\n\r\nThis is a big week for this pair. Support at 0.7000 will be big and if you look at the chart above you will see wicks above the horizontal resistance line at 0.7245 these indicate false breakouts. This is bearish in my eyes.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.6627\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/nzdusddaily27022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7348\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7348\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/NZDUSDDaily27022016.png\" alt=\"NZDUSDDaily27022016\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\nLooking forward, the support level of 0.6600 will be big support not for just being a round number but it is also the 38.2% Fibonacci support level. Similar to the AUD/USD, a false breakout above previous good resistance is bearish in my eyes. The Dairy auction prices on Tuesday will be interesting to follow and also the RBA statement will have influence on future RBNZ policy moves as well.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.3510\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/usdcaddaily27022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7349\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7349\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCADDaily27022016.png\" alt=\"USDCADDaily27022016\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\nThe 61.8% support at 1.3550 has given way and this pair looks bearish on the daily chart. The USD/CAD is now not as responsive to oil prices as it has been in the past. If oil blasts higher this pair will drop like a lead balloon and the cross rates will go with it.\r\n\r\nFor now, I still feel that the oil relationship will come back sooner rather than later and with a Canadian budget due plus another BOC meeting shortly after (I think), do not be surprised if these two events combined weaken the CAD$.\r\n\r\nFor now I feel bearish the pair, but longer term knowing what I do know about the Canadian economy is that it is under pressure everywhere apart from Toronto and Vancouver and expect a weak CAD moving forward.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF - Weekly Closing Price: 0.9955\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/usdchfdaily27022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7350\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7350\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCHFDaily27022016.png\" alt=\"USDCHFDaily27022016\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\nI like being long this pair. I always feel like I am trading if I am selling the CHF currency, excepting peg removal day.\r\n\r\nShould the EUR/USD continue to move lower, this pair should head higher unless a flight to safety trade takes over in Europe due to all the geopolitical news around. 1.0030 (61.8% Fibonacci) is a key level to pass and recent trend highs of 1.0250 will be difficult to pass unless the EUR/USD takes a nosedive.\r\n\r\nI have an ARMAGEDDON long trade set up below 0.9500. What a wonderful mind I have just in case the wheels fall off the bus!!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY - Weekly Closing Price: 113.96\r\n\r\n<u><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/usdjpydaily27022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7351\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7351\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDJPYDaily27022016.png\" alt=\"USDJPYDaily27022016\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a></u>\r\n\r\nI have marked the 38% retracement at 115.00. I believe that is a great area to enter short. If that does not hold, try again at 116.00. Looking at the past few days 115.00 has held and so the risk / reward looks good.\r\n\r\nAlthough not on this chart there is a head and shoulders measured move to about 105.50 available once this pair breaks below 110.80.\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3: CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nA big week for news lies ahead of us.\r\n\r\nObviously, U.S. Non-Farm Employment data on Friday is the big end to the week.\r\n\r\nThere is a great deal of Australian news this week starting with the RBA on Monday evening (2230 EST). This will be a big week down under, as the comments from Glenn Stevens will be examined more closely than usual given recent comments by his sidekick Edwards stating that RBA would be more comfortable with the AUD/USD exchange rate around 0.6500.\r\n\r\nThe cable will be in the news a great deal this week as the political debate over BREXIT or not to BREXIT will gather some steam.\r\n\r\nI should also be watchful over risk sentiment this week. Should the commodity area come under pressure the USD will strengthen once again and before we know it we could be back up at 100.00 again if we see a very bullish and positive NFP number.\r\n\r\nIt is the circle of life FX style, because a bullish NFP and bullish USD will bring back commentary relating to how many damn rate hikes there could be by the FED in 2016! Just when you thought it was safe to step out of the door, all the bloody CNBC and BLOOMBERG contributors spouting off I told you so will come crawling out from under their rocks again…\r\n\r\nBy the way I told you so as well…I am still in the camp of 3 / 4 rate increases this year, I believe that Janet Yellen has at least a 1.0% goal in mind. Holy Mother of God, all these shenanigans over the biggest economy in the world where we are constantly being told everything is so damn brilliant we struggle to get off zirp… go figure. It’s like a GOP debate full of cow, camel and bullsh*t.\r\n\r\nBe careful and ever watchful on oil. The CAD is acting wild like its nickname the “loonie”. Do not worry though, the Canadian politicians who have more holidays than workdays are back in the Ottawa parliament and soon the eagerly awaited budget by new Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will be released. Together with masterly inactivity by Stephen Poloz at the BOC, I predict the USD/CAD at 1.5000+ by the summer, with QE (Quantitative Easing) and negative interest rates also in play.\r\n\r\nBe savvy…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nTake care,\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>','BREXIT - WTF','','inherit','closed','closed','','7352-revision-v1','','','2016-02-28 12:35:34','2016-02-28 17:35:34','',7352,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/7352-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(7354,1,'2016-02-28 12:37:34','2016-02-28 17:37:34','<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li><strong> INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nLast week was my worst week in Forex Trading since I started trading for a number of reasons.\r\n\r\nFirstly, the week opened with Boris Johnson (Lord Mayor of London), announcing hours before the market opened that he would be in favour of a BREXIT. I was quite active on twitter at the time about the fact the Boris although being Mayor of London is a little eccentric, and on the basis that many years ago, wanted the government to take VAT off bicycle puncture repair kits, would not carry much sway. It also appeared that, the Mayor of London, the largest financial capital in Europe supporting the BREXIT would seem a little weird to say the least.\r\n\r\nThe facts were the market liked his BREXIT announcement and whoosh the GBP was hit across the board. I had positions long GBP/NZD. My wife and I were away from home; the initial GAP lower was partially filled, so I felt that the “Boris” effect was nullified. Returning home I was well under water looking at Fibonacci levels and after a huge fall, the GBP/NZD stabilized. These were longer-term trades and the pair had basically moved to the limits of the monthly ATR range. For a couple of days it looked like they were maintaining this level and consolidating the position. This pair moves on average in excess of 900 pips a month, 200/300 in a day can be normal.\r\n\r\nSo, in summary, not happy to be so far away from the market but in reality this pair does need a lot of wiggle room.\r\n\r\nSecondly, living just outside of Montreal, we are prone to severe weather. On Wednesday evening we started receiving severe freezing rain (an ice storm), which resulted in over 260 areas of power outages affecting over 250,000 homes in the immediate Montreal area due to the weight of the ice on power cables etc. No electricity, no Internet connections. My backups were not working, everything was frozen out! Even the cell phone (mobile) connection was on emergency only.\r\n\r\nI trade with stops but they are wide to keep me in trades to avoid the chop and due to the fact that the markets are now operating on much less liquidity they need to be wider. (I was going to write about FX MARKET LIQUIDITY this week but that has been postponed, I have 4 topics on ice now).\r\n\r\nThursday afternoon I went to a friend’s home to charge up devices and check on matters Forex. At this point I had suffered two big losses on the GBP/NZD as I had been taken, other trades I moved stops to either keep me in or take me out at just below or above the next levels of Fibonacci support or resistance. I was sacrificing trades… to coin a phrase; I was not a happy bunny.\r\n\r\nReturning home, I found out that the local community centre had opened to support the locals and at the same time that we would not have power restored for at least another 30 hours! You have to bear in mind we are at -10/-15 degrees Celsius with no heat, or power. This is why we have two Labradors (Ozzy &amp; Aoife (Eefa)); you can cuddle the dogs, one each, to keep warm!\r\n\r\nIn the cold, no computers, no power, listening to an emergency self-cranking radio for news in candlelight. Romantic maybe; but all the time I knew that there was a good chance that I was probably hemorrhaging cash and pips from my accounts. The hydro (power) came back earlier than anticipated but then the ISP’s were not functioning 100%. Connections to both the hydro and ISP’s on Friday during the day were unreliable and came and went with frequency. It was just impossible to do anything. I tried to communicate about stops and taking profits and losses. It was as I tweeted to subscribers a complete nightmare.\r\n\r\nComing next on the horizon is about 30 cms of snow over the next 7 days, so not sure what excitement lies ahead with this weather front!\r\n\r\nIn summary, I took a hit cash wise and on pips (over 2,000) as trades were sacrificed or stops were taken. This was my own version of the EUR/CHF peg removal from just over a year ago. I bounced back from that event, like I will bounce back from this one.\r\n\r\nSo, the phrase is I am charged up like a “Duracell Bunny” ready to go… but no revenge trading!\r\n\r\nOn a happier note the February PREMIUM SERVICE (SILVER) winner is Alex from the UK (<a href=\"mailto:alex@jxxxxx-xxxxxxxxxx.co.uk\">alex@jxxxxx-xxxxxxxxxx.co.uk</a>). All the communications and information has been sent. I hope that Alex enjoys my March trading suggestions; I am fired up and raring to go.\r\n\r\nJust to remind you; you could be the next winner of a free PREMIUM SERVICE (SILVER) subscription; if you subscribe to receive this free blog via my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nYou are automatically entered into a free monthly draw, once you’ve subscribed. Each month during 2016 one lucky blog subscriber will receive a free subscription to the PREMIUM SERVICE (SILVER).\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>2.1: WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber, fee based trade set-up option for Forex traders regardless of experience or background. I provide traders suggested trades, and some market commentary related to open trades or factors within the overall market that have my interest.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and the various trade styles plus how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nAdditional information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE you will require a PayPal account.\r\n\r\n<u>2.2: PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE THIS MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\nNET PIPS THIS MONTH SO FAR:            -1,531\r\nNET PIPS THIS YEAR SO FAR:                -132\r\n\r\nNET PIPS 2015        +10,686\r\nNET PIPS 2014        +11,209\r\n\r\n(I trade basically for 10 months a year. I do not trade from mid July through early September or mid December through early January).\r\n\r\nIf you want more data or detail about the performance and the tabs on my website landing page do not answer your questions, contact me directly and I will supply the trading data you require. There are NO secrets. There are many, many spreadsheets detailing performance trade by trade and by trade and by trading style, way too many to place in this blog. If you are interested in the PREMIUM SERVICE and want more information, all you have to do is ask.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.3: PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBER PROMOTION:</u>\r\n\r\nThis promotion ends tomorrow night.\r\n\r\nYou can check this out on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by clicking on the FX PROMOTIONS tab at the top of the page.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>3.1: LAST WEEK’S NEWS – MY THOUGHTS:</strong>\r\n\r\nIt was all about BREXIT at the start of the week. I was quite shocked that the EURO was not under as much pressure as the cable. The Brits potentially leaving the community is a big thing for the EUROZONE. I must admit to finding all the action in the cable a little weird.\r\n\r\nNow let me caveat that, the EUR/CHF nosed dived, so even with negative interest rates there was a flight to safety. The EUR/GBP moved higher as the GBP/USD moved lower so cross rate effects were at play. Plus at the same time market uncertainty was high and the JPY was strengthening as well creating an overall flight to safety in FX.\r\n\r\nI missed the GDP release in the U.S. at the end of the week, but the FED will no doubt be delighted that GDP was revised up to 1.0% from the previously released 0.7% for Q4 2015 (Q3 was 2.0%). The USD strengthened across the board, all day it was relentless.\r\n\r\nIt comes to something, not quite sure what when, the largest economy in the world had GDP at 1.0% and the market reaction, at least in FX is euphoric. What a strange, weird, crazy world we live in!\r\n\r\nThat is said, without any reference to the “circus” aka the U.S. GOP (Republican) Presidential Debate from last Thursday. If that is the best that the U.S. GOP has to offer as the “Leader” of the free world, God help us all.\r\n\r\nThere was nothing Presidential about the 2 hours I saw on a CNN repeat showing overnight. Frankly, that program was shown all around the world, if an American ever questions why the world views them as idiots and why the U.S. political process and government is viewed as dysfunctional here is the answer.\r\n\r\nIt was embarrassing to say the least and frankly the TV networks see it as sensationalism rather than what it actually is. Not one TV station has thought beyond the now, no in-depth thoughts, just a cheap media circus vying for viewer numbers to gain advertising revenue. It was awful. These people believe that they have what it takes to be a President, and I am really focused on Trump, Rubio and Cruz, zero respect for each other, it was childlike and if either of these three should become President…my God!\r\n\r\nIt was a reality TV show at it’s best or worst depending upon your viewpoint. I do not like to get too political in this blog, and the only reason I bring up that debate is that moving forward the market uncertainties will be huge.\r\n\r\nOn one hand you have Donald Trump way out in front with the Republican Party but his chequered history is starting to catch up. On the other side, there is a good chance it’s Hillary Clinton and she could be indicted ahead of the presidential campaign.\r\n\r\nThe GOP party machine must be pooping their pants at the moment. I would say in the coming months there will be smear campaigns and court battles ahead. Welcome to the “free world”, the worst of America will have its dirtiest underwear washed in public… guaranteed.\r\n\r\nIs this the best the U.S. has with a population of 300 million people?\r\n\r\nGood Lord, what a world we live in.\r\n\r\nNever mind “God Bless America”, it will be “God Help America”.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>3.2: WHAT’S ON MY MIND:</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>BREXIT - WTF</strong></p>\r\nHarold Wilson, the long gone Labour Prime Minister of the UK in the 1970’s and 80’s was famous for two quotes that resonate with me even now after so many years: -\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">“<strong>This will not affect the pound (GBP) in your pocket” – after sterling’s devaluation</strong>\r\n<strong>and</strong>\r\n<strong>“ A week is a long time in politics”</strong></p>\r\nA week ago David Cameron (UK Prime Minister), returned from Brussels waving papers in the air reminiscent of pictures from WWII, saying that we have a deal worthy of remaining in the European community. Cable rallied / shot up across the board, like a rat up a drainpipe.\r\n\r\n48 hours later Boris Johnson (Lord Mayor of London) holds a press conference on his doorstep outside his swanky London abode telling a gathered press that he has agonized over his thoughts and at the end of this torture he has decided that in his opinion, the best interests of the UK people are served if they are no longer connected to Europe and that he is in favour of a BREXIT.\r\n\r\nWTF – the Mayor of the Financial centre of Europe says boll**ks…f**k this for a game of soldiers.\r\n\r\nHe is entitled to his opinions, I have no issue with that at all, but take a step back and think about the ramifications. I am not going to dwell on this, enough has been and more will be written about the effects on the UK.\r\n\r\nBriefly, the gripes in the UK over Europe can probably be summed up in one word SOVEREIGNTY. The Brits who support BREXIT believe SOVEREIGNTY is just being continually eroded and at the same in return for losing more control over one’s own destiny you pay more each year into the EUROZONE coffers for this privilege. In recent months, Migration, Regulation, Costs of Membership of the EUROZONE about $80 million per day and reduced influence as the UK is not a single currency user have all fuelled the BREXIT calls.\r\n\r\nThe UK does NOT adopt the EUR (single currency) therefore they are not in the elite club at the heart of Europe. What influence can you have if you do not have a seat in the centre? This is a compelling argument.\r\n\r\nHere are a few of my initial thoughts: -\r\n\r\nCould $80 million a day be better spent?\r\n\r\nWithout EU regulation could the UK once again strike up better trade deals with China, U.S., the Commonwealth and even the EUROZONE?\r\n\r\nCould another variance of EFTA (The European Free Trade Association) be formulated for those countries in Europe but not in the EUROZONE?\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMoving forward…\r\n\r\nCould this be the beginning of the end of the EUROZONE, as we know it?\r\n\r\nThe EUROZONE existence is fragile at best. There is no union as I have written about many times over the past three years. On paper the concept of a unified Europe looks good but it has so many flaws and it was born in another bye-gone era when the world was different and expectations were different.\r\n\r\nThis is an article in itself for a future blog.\r\n\r\nAt the centre of BREXIT, I have mentioned SOVEREIGNTY but as with the failings of the EUROZONE we should also consider culture. Geographically, the English Channel has always kept the UK one step removed from continental Europe. The cultural divergence between the Mediterranean countries in the south and the powerhouses with money in the North has always been underestimated. The one size fits all approach has proved not to work. The Brits may have money like other Northern European countries but the way of life in the UK whilst cosmopolitan is different to that of France and Germany. Deep-rooted mistrust of the French is often joked and laughed about in pubs and over meals at dinner parties. The non-bending German approach, seen by most Brits is arrogance. The one thing that Brits love is pomp and ceremony if anyone can afford arrogance it\'s the Brits not the Germans.\r\n\r\nThe counter-balance argument is that Britain needs Europe, for trade, it is the UK’s biggest trading partner. This is business, price dominates and the EUROZONE will not cut off its nose to spite its face. Deals will still be done. Exports will still happen. Neither the UK nor the EUROZONE, which exports hugely to the UK, can afford a trade war.\r\n\r\nIt sounds like I am writing that a BREXIT would be good for the UK. My point is I believe the BREXIT if it were to happen late June when the UK referendum takes place, is bigger for the EUROZONE than it is for the UK.\r\n\r\nI will say one word – CONTAGION.\r\n\r\nI will revisit this subject in a future blog article.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nWhat’s next?\r\n\r\nAs Forex traders how will all this affect our trading?\r\n\r\n“A week is a long time in politics”, however, “Four months is a fecking lifetime in trading currencies”\r\n\r\nAlthough I was taken to the woodshed with my GBP/NZD longs, I am still holding some GBP/NZD long trades, for the very long-term, I might add.\r\n\r\nWhat do I think we should look at? It is very, very early but my thoughts at the moment, and, they could change are as follows: -\r\n\r\nObviously all BREXIT news will affect the GBP/USD directly and the crosses GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD and GBP/CAD will be very volatile. The AUD and NZD crosses are very tradable with “RISK ON or RISK OFF” and the GBP/CAD will be influenced as well with movements in crude oil.\r\n\r\nI am interested in the EUR/GBP and maybe the EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY and GBP/CHF. Why I hear you ask?\r\n\r\nEUR/GBP is liquid. It is often ignored. Since December last year it has appreciated about 5% as we moved from an ECB meltdown risk to a referendum risk. Is it the best barometer of risk? With regards to the Scottish referendum it was the trade to be in and many people, including myself missed it. Its direct European focus interests me.\r\n\r\nThe GBP/CHF is the inverted trade to the EUR/GBP and because of the CHF flight to safety trade it would be consistent with a direction. The EUR/CHF could also be traded for the same reasons. As with the EUR/GBP direct European based currencies may offer better directional consistencies.\r\n\r\nThe EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY are key pairs with regards to the trade relations between UK, Europe and Japan and sensitive to changes that can affect trading conditions.\r\n\r\nThere is no doubt in my mind if the BREXIT fails the GBP will rocket for two or three days on the news and as traders we should be long GBP/USD, GBP/AUD, GBP/CAD, GBP/CHF, GBP/NZD, GBP/JPY and short EUR/GBP. In addition the EUR/JPY long should be a good trade.\r\n\r\nShould the BREXIT vote win, there would be carnage…. blood all over computer screens and terminals. Not because of the fact the UK wants out of Europe, but due to pure and simple change and uncertainty.\r\n\r\nMarkets hate change… they certainly hate uncertainty… the keys drivers of any market would then rule… FEAR and GREED.\r\n\r\nThe markets would adjust over time, right now even JCB digger Mark Carney (BOE Governor) has admitted that plans are afoot in case of a BREXIT decision.\r\n\r\nIt will take time to exit. It will be volatile as things settle but life goes on. At least the UK is not going back to Sterling (GBP) from the Euro (EUR), which would have been more volatile and I would say that had the UK been a full member of the EUROZONE (with the Euro currency) that would have been the end of the single currency.\r\n\r\nI will revisit this topic on several occasions in the next four month.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) EXCLUSIVE CONTENT:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(This area contains exclusive content for PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) subscribers)\r\n\r\n<strong>4.1: THE PREMIUM SERVICE – TRADING REVIEW: </strong>\r\n\r\n(This section can cover a multitude of points / facts etc. Basically it’s a 360-degree review, which I think should interest subscribers):\r\n\r\nHoly Mother of God. I decided given the best information to hand and skimping at market news, rushing through chart analysis to let stops do their thing and basically acknowledge the fact that 2016 would start again for me from a pip perspective on March 1<sup>st</sup>. Even as I write this blog there is another huge storm coming in from the mid-west. Apart from bringing a reported 30cms of snow and high winds, I wonder what other joy it will bring?\r\n\r\nI complained last week about being bored. Now, I am frustrated and annoyed with the recent events and frankly being bored doesn’t seem that bad at the moment.\r\n\r\nI have a big challenge ahead.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>4.2: TRADE STYLE DEFINITIONS:</strong>\r\n\r\n<u>4.2.1: RADAR TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\nThese are pre-meditated entry trades set from either Fibonacci levels, pivot points or previous support and resistance based off a combination of horizontal or trend line support or resistance.\r\nThe goal is always if possible to swing trade these trades by establishing a position that if market conditions apply allow the trade to gather traction and develop into a longer-term position trade.\r\n\r\n<u>4.2.2: FLASH TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\nMainly simply, opportunist trades in LIVE market conditions. These trades are either based off a pullback strategy, a GIMME10 pips strategy, or off momentum in a trading pair at the time of entry.\r\nThe goal is to either take 10-30 pips or see a sufficient move to place a protective stop in place to see if a swing trade develops.\r\nSome FLASH TRADES may form part of an overall trading plan with a given currency pair, but the entry could not be made via a LIMIT ORDER.\r\n\r\nIn addition in 2016, some FLASH TRADES can be of a longer duration, with very specific goals.\r\n\r\n<u>4.2.3: FUNDAMENTAL TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\nThese will be trades based off my TRADING PLAN goals for trades in line with my longer-term market views.\r\nTrades in this area will use in addition Fibonacci levels, Pivot points, trend lines and prior support and resistance levels, weekly and monthly ATR’s (Average True Ranges) when setting Stop Loss levels.\r\nThese trades are hopefully of a longer-term nature. They will be initially “single-lot” sized trades due to the wider stop placements that will be applied.\r\n\r\n<u>4.2.4: PART-TIME TRADER TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\nThese trade set-ups are intended to have a longer-term trading perspective. They are not only targeted at traders who consider they are part-time Forex traders; obviously, all traders can of course take advantage. (My definition of a part-time trader is one who is only able to look at their computer screens, or, mobile devices to check trades two or three times a day).\r\n\r\nA key feature of these set-ups is that they have much wider than normal stops to allow for market swings and volatility. The trades therefore have a smaller position size to allow for the swings in volatility, but multiple trades in the same currency pair are added when the core trade has gained traction in the desired direction.\r\n\r\nMy goal is to have multiple trades open/live at any one time and maybe 2/3 open/live trades with the same currency pair. I will of course suggest to take some profits along the way, but hopefully at the same time letting trades run as far as possible.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>4.3: THE PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE SPREADSHEETS (INCLUDING LIVE &amp; LIMIT ORDER TRADES):</strong>\r\n\r\nFull and complete details surrounding these trades can be found inside the PREMIUM SERVICE on my website. These can be found on the spreadsheets on the website.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>4.4: REVIEW OF OPEN LIMIT ORDER TRADES NOT YET TRIGGERED:</strong>\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.1: RADAR LIMIT ORDER TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\nRT652 – GBP/USD:\r\nAfter the weeks huge drop in the cable, this level represents the only valid stopping point on its move lower. This trade missed by about 7/8 pips last Friday to trigger a 200-pip move lower once again. I will keep it in place for now, but I will review its validity early this week.\r\n\r\nRT654 – EUR/GBP:\r\nI will be reviewing this trade early this week. I do still believe that a move to 0.8000 is possible. As long as the GBP/USD is falling and cable is generally under pressure this trade should play out. The only caveat is how the EUR/USD behaves. Should the EUR/USD fall below 1.0900, then I will have to look at this trade again faster than anticipated.\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.2: FUNDAMENTAL LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n</u>\r\n\r\nFUN273 – EUR/USD:\r\nI have this trade just below the recent highs of 1.1473. I am not certain that this trade will trigger. We have Mario Draghi speaking Monday and the big EUROZONE growth revisions are on March 10<sup>th</sup>. I was hoping for a spike prior to this announcement. Fundamentally nothing has changed but on Friday last week the USD came back to life and strengthened across the board on the back of better than anticipated GDP numbers. I will keep this trade open until after Draghi has spoken.\r\n\r\nFUN274 – USD/CHF:\r\nOpposite to the EUR/USD. Longer-term I am still bullish this pair but if the EUR/USD spikes, this pair will fall and the lower the price the better the $$$ opportunity. I will review this trade at the same time as FUN273.\r\n\r\nFUN277 – AUD/NZD:\r\nA further set-up for longer-term view.\r\n\r\nFUN278 – GBP/NZD:\r\nAnother set-up to add to the longer-term trade; this one is set to trigger above trend line resistance.\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.3: PART-TIME TRADER LIMIT ORDER TRADES: </u>\r\n\r\nPART041 – USD/CHF:\r\nOpposite to the EUR/USD. Longer-term I am still bullish this pair but if the EUR/USD spikes, this pair will fall and the lower the price the better the $$$ opportunity. I will review this trade at the same time as PART042. This will be after Draghi speaks on March 10<sup>th</sup>.\r\n\r\nPART042 – EUR/USD:\r\nI have this trade just below the recent highs of 1.1473. I am not certain that this trade will trigger. We have Mario Draghi speaking Monday and the big EUROZONE growth revisions are on March 10<sup>th</sup>. I was hoping for a spike prior to this announcement. Fundamentally nothing has changed but I will hold off on doing anything until Draghi speaks on March 10<sup>th</sup>.\r\n\r\nPART044 – AUD/NZD:\r\nA further set-up for longer-term view.\r\n\r\nPART045 – GBP/NZD:\r\nAnother set-up to add to the longer-term trade; this one is set to trigger above trend line resistance\r\n\r\nPART048 – GBP/CHF:\r\nThis is almost like one of my ARMAGEDDON TRADES, I may be too greedy with the entrance level.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n	<li><strong> COMING UP THIS WEEK:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5.1: THIS WEEK’S FOREX NEWS THAT INTERESTS ME:</u>\r\n\r\n(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market other than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to <a href=\"http://www.forexfactory.com\">www.forexfactory.com</a> and <a href=\"http://www.tradingeconomics.com\">www.tradingeconomics.com</a> for a more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).\r\nSUNDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: AUD – Building Approvals &amp; RBA Rate Statement.\r\nMONDAY: CNY – Manufacturing PMi.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: GBP – Manufacturing PMi.\r\nTUESDAY: CAD – GDP.\r\nTUESDAY: NZD – GDT Dairy Auction Prices.\r\nTUESDAY: USD – ISM Manufacturing PMi.\r\nTUESDAY: AUD – GDP.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: GBP – Construction PMi.\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – ADP Non-Farm Employment Change.\r\nWEDNESDAY: AUD – Trade Balance.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: GBP – Services PMI.\r\nTHURSDAY: USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.\r\nTHURSDAY: AUD – Retail Sales.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: USD – Non-Farm Payrolls, Trade Balance and Unemployment Rate.\r\nFRIDAY: CAD – Trade Balance.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>5.1: THE USD MAJORS SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS: </u>\r\n\r\n(In this section I have as usual kept my charts as minimalist as possible. With regards to charting in my opinion less is more!! I hope that they are clear. All readers regardless of level of experience should be able to follow my thoughts from my comments to the levels on the charts with ease)\r\n\r\nMy comments are usually contained on the charts. However, this week my usual charting service is not responding and therefore my comments are below the charts for each currency pair.\r\n\r\nEUR/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.0927\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/eurusddaily27022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7346\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7346\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/EURUSDDaily27022016.png\" alt=\"EURUSDDaily27022016\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\nA nasty engulfing daily candle has been posted to end the week. We closed just on trend line support. The next Fibonacci level lower is at 1.0850, the 61.8% retracement. I would say that this is a key level to hold moving forward. A break of this level and we are heading to 1.0500 once again. Remember, we have Mario Draghi on March 10<sup>th</sup>. This meeting takes on even greater importance should this pair come under pressure at that time.\r\n\r\nGBP/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.3866\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/gbpusdmonthly27022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7347\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7347\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/GBPUSDMonthly27022016.png\" alt=\"GBPUSDMonthly27022016\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\nWhat can I add that hasn’t been added by umpteen analysts and commentators already? The cable is under real meltdown pressure and frankly using Fibonacci extensions and previous horizontal support levels is the best that I can do. 1.3775 offers a confluence of fibs, it’s too messy to put on this chart. After that we have 1.3660 and 1.3500, and after that to quote Alice Cooper we’re all off to hell on one bastard of a ride!!\r\n\r\nThis pair needs to break above 1.4050 to take the selling pressure off. That level seems a mile away.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.7121\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/audusddaily27022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7345\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7345\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/AUDUSDDaily27022016.png\" alt=\"AUDUSDDaily27022016\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\nA nice bearish engulfing candle to end the week. Beware though; there is a great deal of front line Australian data this week, the biggest being the RBA Rate Statement late Monday evening (EST).\r\n\r\nWithout doubt this pair will suffer if commodity prices come under pressure once again and we also note that China PMi data is also out on Monday evening before the RBA announcement.\r\n\r\nThis is a big week for this pair. Support at 0.7000 will be big and if you look at the chart above you will see wicks above the horizontal resistance line at 0.7245 these indicate false breakouts. This is bearish in my eyes.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.6627\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/nzdusddaily27022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7348\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7348\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/NZDUSDDaily27022016.png\" alt=\"NZDUSDDaily27022016\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\nLooking forward, the support level of 0.6600 will be big support not for just being a round number but it is also the 38.2% Fibonacci support level. Similar to the AUD/USD, a false breakout above previous good resistance is bearish in my eyes. The Dairy auction prices on Tuesday will be interesting to follow and also the RBA statement will have influence on future RBNZ policy moves as well.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.3510\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/usdcaddaily27022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7349\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7349\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCADDaily27022016.png\" alt=\"USDCADDaily27022016\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\nThe 61.8% support at 1.3550 has given way and this pair looks bearish on the daily chart. The USD/CAD is now not as responsive to oil prices as it has been in the past. If oil blasts higher this pair will drop like a lead balloon and the cross rates will go with it.\r\n\r\nFor now, I still feel that the oil relationship will come back sooner rather than later and with a Canadian budget due plus another BOC meeting shortly after (I think), do not be surprised if these two events combined weaken the CAD$.\r\n\r\nFor now I feel bearish the pair, but longer term knowing what I do know about the Canadian economy is that it is under pressure everywhere apart from Toronto and Vancouver and expect a weak CAD moving forward.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF - Weekly Closing Price: 0.9955\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/usdchfdaily27022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7350\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7350\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCHFDaily27022016.png\" alt=\"USDCHFDaily27022016\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\nI like being long this pair. I always feel like I am trading if I am selling the CHF currency, excepting peg removal day.\r\n\r\nShould the EUR/USD continue to move lower, this pair should head higher unless a flight to safety trade takes over in Europe due to all the geopolitical news around. 1.0030 (61.8% Fibonacci) is a key level to pass and recent trend highs of 1.0250 will be difficult to pass unless the EUR/USD takes a nosedive.\r\n\r\nI have an ARMAGEDDON long trade set up below 0.9500. What a wonderful mind I have just in case the wheels fall off the bus!!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY - Weekly Closing Price: 113.96\r\n\r\n<u><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/usdjpydaily27022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7351\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7351\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDJPYDaily27022016.png\" alt=\"USDJPYDaily27022016\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a></u>\r\n\r\nI have marked the 38% retracement at 115.00. I believe that is a great area to enter short. If that does not hold, try again at 116.00. Looking at the past few days 115.00 has held and so the risk / reward looks good.\r\n\r\nAlthough not on this chart there is a head and shoulders measured move to about 105.50 available once this pair breaks below 110.80.\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3: CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nA big week for news lies ahead of us.\r\n\r\nObviously, U.S. Non-Farm Employment data on Friday is the big end to the week.\r\n\r\nThere is a great deal of Australian news this week starting with the RBA on Monday evening (2230 EST). This will be a big week down under, as the comments from Glenn Stevens will be examined more closely than usual given recent comments by his sidekick Edwards stating that RBA would be more comfortable with the AUD/USD exchange rate around 0.6500.\r\n\r\nThe cable will be in the news a great deal this week as the political debate over BREXIT or not to BREXIT will gather some steam.\r\n\r\nI should also be watchful over risk sentiment this week. Should the commodity area come under pressure the USD will strengthen once again and before we know it we could be back up at 100.00 again if we see a very bullish and positive NFP number.\r\n\r\nIt is the circle of life FX style, because a bullish NFP and bullish USD will bring back commentary relating to how many damn rate hikes there could be by the FED in 2016! Just when you thought it was safe to step out of the door, all the bloody CNBC and BLOOMBERG contributors spouting off I told you so will come crawling out from under their rocks again…\r\n\r\nBy the way I told you so as well…I am still in the camp of 3 / 4 rate increases this year, I believe that Janet Yellen has at least a 1.0% goal in mind. Holy Mother of God, all these shenanigans over the biggest economy in the world where we are constantly being told everything is so damn brilliant we struggle to get off zirp… go figure. It’s like a GOP debate full of cow, camel and bullsh*t.\r\n\r\nBe careful and ever watchful on oil. The CAD is acting wild like its nickname the “loonie”. Do not worry though, the Canadian politicians who have more holidays than workdays are back in the Ottawa parliament and soon the eagerly awaited budget by new Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will be released. Together with masterly inactivity by Stephen Poloz at the BOC, I predict the USD/CAD at 1.5000+ by the summer, with QE (Quantitative Easing) and negative interest rates also in play.\r\n\r\nBe savvy…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nTake care,\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>','BREXIT - WTF','','inherit','closed','closed','','7352-revision-v1','','','2016-02-28 12:37:34','2016-02-28 17:37:34','',7352,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/7352-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `vp_backup_wp_posts` VALUES (7361,1,'2016-02-28 13:10:39','2016-02-28 18:10:39','<strong><u>THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU</u></strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li><strong> INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nBeing honest is important in all matters to do with life, this includes Forex Trading. I am fairly active on social media. Twitter is an important vehicle for traders as it is instant. If you are active on twitter you will see no one loses money, no one has poor trades and no one ever admits to errors. Everything is always perfect and rosy. What you will notice however is that from time to time people disappear. These are probably the ones that did lose money, did make errors.\r\n\r\nThe simple facts are in trading you will lose money on some trades and you will make some bad calls. Its a fact of life, nothing is 100% perfect.\r\n\r\nLast week was my worst week in Forex Trading since I started trading for a number of reasons.\r\n\r\nFirstly, the week opened with Boris Johnson (Lord Mayor of London), announcing hours before the market opened that he would be in favour of a BREXIT. I was quite active on twitter at the time about the fact the Boris although being Mayor of London is a little eccentric, and on the basis that many years ago, wanted the government to take VAT off bicycle puncture repair kits, would not carry much sway. It also appeared that, the Mayor of London, the largest financial capital in Europe supporting the BREXIT would seem a little weird to say the least.\r\n\r\nThe facts were the market liked his BREXIT announcement and whoosh the GBP was hit across the board. I had positions long GBP/NZD. My wife and I were away from home; the initial GAP lower was partially filled, so I felt that the “Boris” effect was nullified. Returning home I was well under water looking at Fibonacci levels and after a huge fall, the GBP/NZD stabilized. These were longer-term trades and the pair had basically moved to the limits of the monthly ATR range. For a couple of days it looked like they were maintaining this level and consolidating the position. This pair moves on average in excess of 900 pips a month, 200/300 in a day can be normal.\r\n\r\nSo, in summary, not happy to be so far away from the market but in reality this pair does need a lot of wiggle room.\r\n\r\nSecondly, living just outside of Montreal, we are prone to severe weather. On Wednesday evening we started receiving severe freezing rain (an ice storm), which resulted in over 260 areas of power outages affecting over 250,000 homes in the immediate Montreal area due to the weight of the ice on power cables etc. No electricity, no Internet connections. My backups were not working, everything was frozen out! Even the cell phone (mobile) connection was on emergency only.\r\n\r\nI trade with stops but they are wide to keep me in trades to avoid the chop and due to the fact that the markets are now operating on much less liquidity they need to be wider. (I was going to write about FX MARKET LIQUIDITY this week but that has been postponed, I have 4 topics on ice now).\r\n\r\nThursday afternoon I went to a friend’s home to charge up devices and check on matters Forex. At this point I had suffered two big losses on the GBP/NZD as I had been taken, other trades I moved stops to either keep me in or take me out at just below or above the next levels of Fibonacci support or resistance. I was sacrificing trades… to coin a phrase; I was not a happy bunny.\r\n\r\nReturning home, I found out that the local community centre had opened to support the locals and at the same time that we would not have power restored for at least another 30 hours! You have to bear in mind we are at -10/-15 degrees Celsius with no heat, or power. This is why we have two Labradors (Ozzy &amp; Aoife (Eefa)); you can cuddle the dogs, one each, to keep warm!\r\n\r\nIn the cold, no computers, no power, listening to an emergency self-cranking radio for news in candlelight. Romantic maybe; but all the time I knew that there was a good chance that I was probably hemorrhaging cash and pips from my accounts. The hydro (power) came back earlier than anticipated but then the ISP’s were not functioning 100%. Connections to both the hydro and ISP’s on Friday during the day were unreliable and came and went with frequency. It was just impossible to do anything. I tried to communicate about stops and taking profits and losses. It was as I tweeted to subscribers a complete nightmare.\r\n\r\nComing next on the horizon is about 30 cms of snow over the next 7 days, so not sure what excitement lies ahead with this weather front!\r\n\r\nIn summary, I took a hit cash wise and on pips (over 2,000) as trades were sacrificed or stops were taken. This was my own version of the EUR/CHF peg removal from just over a year ago. I bounced back from that event, like I will bounce back from this one.\r\n\r\nSo, the phrase is I am charged up like a “Duracell Bunny” ready to go… but no revenge trading!\r\n\r\nOn a happier note the February PREMIUM SERVICE (SILVER) winner is Alex from the UK (<a href=\"mailto:alex@jxxxxx-xxxxxxxxxx.co.uk\">alex@jxxxxx-xxxxxxxxxx.co.uk</a>). All the communications and information has been sent. I hope that Alex enjoys my March trading suggestions; I am fired up and raring to go.\r\n\r\nJust to remind you; you could be the next winner of a free PREMIUM SERVICE (SILVER) subscription; if you subscribe to receive this free blog via my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nYou are automatically entered into a free monthly draw, once you’ve subscribed. Each month during 2016 one lucky blog subscriber will receive a free subscription to the PREMIUM SERVICE (SILVER).\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>2.1: WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber, fee based trade set-up option for Forex traders regardless of experience or background. I provide traders suggested trades, and some market commentary related to open trades or factors within the overall market that have my interest.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and the various trade styles plus how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nAdditional information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE you will require a PayPal account.\r\n\r\n<u>2.2: PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE THIS MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\nNET PIPS THIS MONTH SO FAR:            -1,531\r\nNET PIPS THIS YEAR SO FAR:                -132\r\n\r\nNET PIPS 2015        +10,686\r\nNET PIPS 2014        +11,209\r\n\r\n(I trade basically for 10 months a year. I do not trade from mid July through early September or mid December through early January).\r\n\r\nIf you want more data or detail about the performance and the tabs on my website landing page do not answer your questions, contact me directly and I will supply the trading data you require. There are NO secrets. There are many, many spreadsheets detailing performance trade by trade and by trade and by trading style, way too many to place in this blog. If you are interested in the PREMIUM SERVICE and want more information, all you have to do is ask.\r\n\r\nNo better time to join. I have a point to prove starting the year from zero again after last week’s shenanigans with power outages.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n2.3: PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBER PROMOTION:</u>\r\n\r\nThis promotion ends tomorrow night.\r\n\r\nYou can check this out on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by clicking on the FX PROMOTIONS tab at the top of the page.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>3.1: LAST WEEK’S NEWS – MY THOUGHTS:</strong>\r\n\r\nIt was all about BREXIT at the start of the week. I was quite shocked that the EURO was not under as much pressure as the cable. The Brits potentially leaving the community is a big thing for the EUROZONE. I must admit to finding all the action in the cable a little weird.\r\n\r\nNow let me caveat that, the EUR/CHF nosed dived, so even with negative interest rates there was a flight to safety. The EUR/GBP moved higher as the GBP/USD moved lower so cross rate effects were at play. Plus at the same time market uncertainty was high and the JPY was strengthening as well creating an overall flight to safety in FX.\r\n\r\nI missed the GDP release in the U.S. at the end of the week, but the FED will no doubt be delighted that GDP was revised up to 1.0% from the previously released 0.7% for Q4 2015 (Q3 was 2.0%). The USD strengthened across the board, all day it was relentless.\r\n\r\nIt comes to something, not quite sure what when, the largest economy in the world had GDP at 1.0% and the market reaction, at least in FX is euphoric. What a strange, weird, crazy world we live in!\r\n\r\nThat is said, without any reference to the “circus” aka the U.S. GOP (Republican) Presidential Debate from last Thursday. If that is the best that the U.S. GOP has to offer as the “Leader” of the free world, God help us all.\r\n\r\nThere was nothing Presidential about the 2 hours I saw on a CNN repeat showing overnight. Frankly, that program was shown all around the world, if an American ever questions why the world views them as idiots and why the U.S. political process and government is viewed as dysfunctional here is the answer.\r\n\r\nIt was embarrassing to say the least and frankly the TV networks see it as sensationalism rather than what it actually is. Not one TV station has thought beyond the now, no in-depth thoughts, just a cheap media circus vying for viewer numbers to gain advertising revenue. It was awful. These people believe that they have what it takes to be a President, and I am really focused on Trump, Rubio and Cruz, zero respect for each other, it was childlike and if either of these three should become President…my God!\r\n\r\nIt was a reality TV show at it’s best or worst depending upon your viewpoint. I do not like to get too political in this blog, and the only reason I bring up that debate is that moving forward the market uncertainties will be huge.\r\n\r\nOn one hand you have Donald Trump way out in front with the Republican Party but his chequered history is starting to catch up. On the other side, there is a good chance it’s Hillary Clinton and she could be indicted ahead of the presidential campaign.\r\n\r\nThe GOP party machine must be pooping their pants at the moment. I would say in the coming months there will be smear campaigns and court battles ahead. Welcome to the “free world”, the worst of America will have its dirtiest underwear washed in public… guaranteed.\r\n\r\nIs this the best the U.S. has with a population of 300 million people?\r\n\r\nGood Lord, what a world we live in.\r\n\r\nNever mind “God Bless America”, it will be “God Help America”.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>3.2: WHAT’S ON MY MIND:</strong>\r\n<h4 style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>BREXIT…WTF</strong></h4>\r\nHarold Wilson, the long gone Labour Prime Minister of the UK in the 1970’s and 80’s was famous for two quotes that resonate with me even now after so many years: -\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>“This will not affect the pound (GBP) in your pocket” – after sterling’s devaluation</strong>\r\n<strong>and</strong>\r\n<strong>“ A week is a long time in politics”</strong></p>\r\nA week ago David Cameron (UK Prime Minister), returned from Brussels waving papers in the air reminiscent of pictures from WWII, saying that we have a deal worthy of remaining in the European community. Cable rallied / shot up across the board, like a rat up a drainpipe.\r\n\r\n48 hours later Boris Johnson (Lord Mayor of London) holds a press conference on his doorstep outside his swanky London abode telling a gathered press that he has agonized over his thoughts and at the end of this torture he has decided that in his opinion, the best interests of the UK people are served if they are no longer connected to Europe and that he is in favour of a BREXIT.\r\n\r\nWTF – the Mayor of the Financial centre of Europe says boll**ks…f**k this for a game of soldiers.\r\n\r\nHe is entitled to his opinions, I have no issue with that at all, but take a step back and think about the ramifications. I am not going to dwell on this, enough has been and more will be written about the effects on the UK.\r\n\r\nBriefly, the gripes in the UK over Europe can probably be summed up in one word SOVEREIGNTY. The Brits who support BREXIT believe SOVEREIGNTY is just being continually eroded and at the same in return for losing more control over one’s own destiny you pay more each year into the EUROZONE coffers for this privilege. In recent months, Migration, Regulation, Costs of Membership of the EUROZONE about $80 million per day and reduced influence as the UK is not a single currency user have all fuelled the BREXIT calls.\r\n\r\nThe UK does NOT adopt the EUR (single currency) therefore they are not in the elite club at the heart of Europe. What influence can you have if you do not have a seat in the centre? This is a compelling argument.\r\n\r\nHere are a few of my initial thoughts: -\r\n\r\nCould $80 million a day be better spent?\r\n\r\nWithout EU regulation could the UK once again strike up better trade deals with China, U.S., the Commonwealth and even the EUROZONE?\r\n\r\nCould another variance of EFTA (The European Free Trade Association) be formulated for those countries in Europe but not in the EUROZONE?\r\n\r\nMoving forward…\r\n\r\nCould this be the beginning of the end of the EUROZONE, as we know it?\r\n\r\nThe EUROZONE existence is fragile at best. There is no union as I have written about many times over the past three years. On paper the concept of a unified Europe looks good but it has so many flaws and it was born in another bye-gone era when the world was different and expectations were different.\r\n\r\nThis is an article in itself for a future blog.\r\n\r\nAt the centre of BREXIT, I have mentioned SOVEREIGNTY but as with the failings of the EUROZONE we should also consider culture. Geographically, the English Channel has always kept the UK one step removed from continental Europe. The cultural divergence between the Mediterranean countries in the south and the powerhouses with money in the North has always been underestimated. The one size fits all approach has proved not to work. The Brits may have money like other Northern European countries but the way of life in the UK whilst cosmopolitan is different to that of France and Germany. Deep-rooted mistrust of the French is often joked and laughed about in pubs and over meals at dinner parties. The non-bending German approach, seen by most Brits is arrogance. The one thing that Brits love is pomp and ceremony if anyone can afford arrogance it\'s the Brits not the Germans.\r\n\r\nThe counter-balance argument is that Britain needs Europe, for trade, it is the UK’s biggest trading partner. This is business, price dominates and the EUROZONE will not cut off its nose to spite its face. Deals will still be done. Exports will still happen. Neither the UK nor the EUROZONE, which exports hugely to the UK, can afford a trade war.\r\n\r\nIt sounds like I am writing that a BREXIT would be good for the UK. My point is I believe the BREXIT if it were to happen late June when the UK referendum takes place, is bigger for the EUROZONE than it is for the UK.\r\n\r\nI will say one word – CONTAGION.\r\n\r\nI will revisit this subject in a future blog article.\r\n\r\nWhat’s next?\r\n\r\nAs Forex traders how will all this affect our trading?\r\n\r\n“A week is a long time in politics”, however, “Four months is a fecking lifetime in trading currencies”\r\n\r\nAlthough I was taken to the woodshed with my GBP/NZD longs, I am still holding some GBP/NZD long trades, for the very long-term, I might add.\r\n\r\nWhat do I think we should look at? It is very, very early but my thoughts at the moment, and, they could change are as follows: -\r\n\r\nObviously all BREXIT news will affect the GBP/USD directly and the crosses GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD and GBP/CAD will be very volatile. The AUD and NZD crosses are very tradable with “RISK ON or RISK OFF” and the GBP/CAD will be influenced as well with movements in crude oil.\r\n\r\nI am interested in the EUR/GBP and maybe the EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY and GBP/CHF. Why I hear you ask?\r\n\r\nEUR/GBP is liquid. It is often ignored. Since December last year it has appreciated about 5% as we moved from an ECB meltdown risk to a referendum risk. Is it the best barometer of risk? With regards to the Scottish referendum it was the trade to be in and many people, including myself missed it. Its direct European focus interests me.\r\n\r\nThe GBP/CHF is the inverted trade to the EUR/GBP and because of the CHF flight to safety trade it would be consistent with a direction. The EUR/CHF could also be traded for the same reasons. As with the EUR/GBP direct European based currencies may offer better directional consistencies.\r\n\r\nThe EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY are key pairs with regards to the trade relations between UK, Europe and Japan and sensitive to changes that can affect trading conditions.\r\n\r\nThere is no doubt in my mind if the BREXIT fails the GBP will rocket for two or three days on the news and as traders we should be long GBP/USD, GBP/AUD, GBP/CAD, GBP/CHF, GBP/NZD, GBP/JPY and short EUR/GBP. In addition the EUR/JPY long should be a good trade.\r\n\r\nShould the BREXIT vote win, there would be carnage…. blood all over computer screens and terminals. Not because of the fact the UK wants out of Europe, but due to pure and simple change and uncertainty.\r\n\r\nMarkets hate change… they certainly hate uncertainty… the keys drivers of any market would then rule… FEAR and GREED.\r\n\r\nThe markets would adjust over time, right now even JCB digger Mark Carney (BOE Governor) has admitted that plans are afoot in case of a BREXIT decision.\r\n\r\nIt will take time to exit. It will be volatile as things settle but life goes on. At least the UK is not going back to Sterling (GBP) from the Euro (EUR), which would have been more volatile and I would say that had the UK been a full member of the EUROZONE (with the Euro currency) that would have been the end of the single currency.\r\n\r\nI will revisit this topic on several occasions in the next four month.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) EXCLUSIVE CONTENT:\r\n</strong>(This area contains exclusive content for PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) subscribers)</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n	<li><strong> COMING UP THIS WEEK:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5.1: THIS WEEK’S FOREX NEWS THAT INTERESTS ME:</u>\r\n\r\n(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market other than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to <a href=\"http://www.forexfactory.com\">www.forexfactory.com</a> and <a href=\"http://www.tradingeconomics.com\">www.tradingeconomics.com</a> for a more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).\r\nSUNDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: AUD – Building Approvals &amp; RBA Rate Statement.\r\nMONDAY: CNY – Manufacturing PMi.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: GBP – Manufacturing PMi.\r\nTUESDAY: CAD – GDP.\r\nTUESDAY: NZD – GDT Dairy Auction Prices.\r\nTUESDAY: USD – ISM Manufacturing PMi.\r\nTUESDAY: AUD – GDP.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: GBP – Construction PMi.\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – ADP Non-Farm Employment Change.\r\nWEDNESDAY: AUD – Trade Balance.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: GBP – Services PMI.\r\nTHURSDAY: USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.\r\nTHURSDAY: AUD – Retail Sales.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: USD – Non-Farm Payrolls, Trade Balance and Unemployment Rate.\r\nFRIDAY: CAD – Trade Balance.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>5.1: THE USD MAJORS SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS: </u>\r\n\r\n(In this section I have as usual kept my charts as minimalist as possible. With regards to charting in my opinion less is more!! I hope that they are clear. All readers regardless of level of experience should be able to follow my thoughts from my comments to the levels on the charts with ease)\r\n\r\nMy comments are usually contained on the charts. However, this week my usual charting service is not responding and therefore my comments are below the charts for each currency pair.\r\n\r\nEUR/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.0927\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/brexit-wtf/eurusddaily27022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7346\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7346\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/EURUSDDaily27022016.png\" alt=\"EURUSDDaily27022016\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\nA nasty engulfing daily candle has been posted to end the week. We closed just on trend line support. The next Fibonacci level lower is at 1.0850, the 61.8% retracement. I would say that this is a key level to hold moving forward. A break of this level and we are heading to 1.0500 once again. Remember, we have Mario Draghi on March 10<sup>th</sup>. This meeting takes on even greater importance should this pair come under pressure at that time.\r\n\r\nGBP/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.3866\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/brexit-wtf/gbpusdmonthly27022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7347\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7347\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/GBPUSDMonthly27022016.png\" alt=\"GBPUSDMonthly27022016\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\nWhat can I add that hasn’t been added by umpteen analysts and commentators already? The cable is under real meltdown pressure and frankly using Fibonacci extensions and previous horizontal support levels is the best that I can do. 1.3775 offers a confluence of fibs, it’s too messy to put on this chart. After that we have 1.3660 and 1.3500, and after that to quote Alice Cooper we’re all off to hell on one bastard of a ride!!\r\n\r\nThis pair needs to break above 1.4050 to take the selling pressure off. That level seems a mile away.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.7121\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/brexit-wtf/audusddaily27022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7345\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7345\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/AUDUSDDaily27022016.png\" alt=\"AUDUSDDaily27022016\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\nA nice bearish engulfing candle to end the week. Beware though; there is a great deal of front line Australian data this week, the biggest being the RBA Rate Statement late Monday evening (EST).\r\n\r\nWithout doubt this pair will suffer if commodity prices come under pressure once again and we also note that China PMi data is also out on Monday evening before the RBA announcement.\r\n\r\nThis is a big week for this pair. Support at 0.7000 will be big and if you look at the chart above you will see wicks above the horizontal resistance line at 0.7245 these indicate false breakouts. This is bearish in my eyes.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.6627\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/brexit-wtf/nzdusddaily27022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7348\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7348\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/NZDUSDDaily27022016.png\" alt=\"NZDUSDDaily27022016\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\nLooking forward, the support level of 0.6600 will be big support not for just being a round number but it is also the 38.2% Fibonacci support level. Similar to the AUD/USD, a false breakout above previous good resistance is bearish in my eyes. The Dairy auction prices on Tuesday will be interesting to follow and also the RBA statement will have influence on future RBNZ policy moves as well.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.3510\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/brexit-wtf/usdcaddaily27022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7349\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7349\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCADDaily27022016.png\" alt=\"USDCADDaily27022016\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\nThe 61.8% support at 1.3550 has given way and this pair looks bearish on the daily chart. The USD/CAD is now not as responsive to oil prices as it has been in the past. If oil blasts higher this pair will drop like a lead balloon and the cross rates will go with it.\r\n\r\nFor now, I still feel that the oil relationship will come back sooner rather than later and with a Canadian budget due plus another BOC meeting shortly after (I think), do not be surprised if these two events combined weaken the CAD$.\r\n\r\nFor now I feel bearish the pair, but longer term knowing what I do know about the Canadian economy is that it is under pressure everywhere apart from Toronto and Vancouver and expect a weak CAD moving forward.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF - Weekly Closing Price: 0.9955\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/brexit-wtf/usdchfdaily27022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7350\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7350\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCHFDaily27022016.png\" alt=\"USDCHFDaily27022016\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\nI like being long this pair. I always feel like I am trading if I am selling the CHF currency, excepting peg removal day.\r\n\r\nShould the EUR/USD continue to move lower, this pair should head higher unless a flight to safety trade takes over in Europe due to all the geopolitical news around. 1.0030 (61.8% Fibonacci) is a key level to pass and recent trend highs of 1.0250 will be difficult to pass unless the EUR/USD takes a nosedive.\r\n\r\nI have an ARMAGEDDON long trade set up below 0.9500. What a wonderful mind I have just in case the wheels fall off the bus!!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY - Weekly Closing Price: 113.96\r\n\r\n<u><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/brexit-wtf/usdjpydaily27022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7351\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7351\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDJPYDaily27022016.png\" alt=\"USDJPYDaily27022016\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a></u>\r\n\r\nI have marked the 38% retracement at 115.00. I believe that is a great area to enter short. If that does not hold, try again at 116.00. Looking at the past few days 115.00 has held and so the risk / reward looks good.\r\n\r\nAlthough not on this chart there is a head and shoulders measured move to about 105.50 available once this pair breaks below 110.80.\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3: CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nA big week for news lies ahead of us.\r\n\r\nObviously, U.S. Non-Farm Employment data on Friday is the big end to the week.\r\n\r\nThere is a great deal of Australian news this week starting with the RBA on Monday evening (2230 EST). This will be a big week down under, as the comments from Glenn Stevens will be examined more closely than usual given recent comments by his sidekick Edwards stating that RBA would be more comfortable with the AUD/USD exchange rate around 0.6500.\r\n\r\nThe cable will be in the news a great deal this week as the political debate over BREXIT or not to BREXIT will gather some steam.\r\n\r\nI should also be watchful over risk sentiment this week. Should the commodity area come under pressure the USD will strengthen once again and before we know it we could be back up at 100.00 again if we see a very bullish and positive NFP number.\r\n\r\nIt is the circle of life FX style, because a bullish NFP and bullish USD will bring back commentary relating to how many damn rate hikes there could be by the FED in 2016! Just when you thought it was safe to step out of the door, all the bloody CNBC and BLOOMBERG contributors spouting off I told you so will come crawling out from under their rocks again…\r\n\r\nBy the way I told you so as well…I am still in the camp of 3 / 4 rate increases this year, I believe that Janet Yellen has at least a 1.0% goal in mind. Holy Mother of God, all these shenanigans over the biggest economy in the world where we are constantly being told everything is so damn brilliant we struggle to get off zirp… go figure. It’s like a GOP debate full of cow, camel and bullsh*t.\r\n\r\nBe careful and ever watchful on oil. The CAD is acting wild like its nickname the “loonie”. Do not worry though, the Canadian politicians who have more holidays than workdays are back in the Ottawa parliament and soon the eagerly awaited budget by new Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will be released. Together with masterly inactivity by Stephen Poloz at the BOC, I predict the USD/CAD at 1.5000+ by the summer, with QE (Quantitative Easing) and negative interest rates also in play.\r\n\r\nBe savvy…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nTake care,\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nDATE: 27<sup>h</sup> February 2016\r\nBLOG REFERENCE: #190 FREE NEWSLETTER\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','BREXIT…WTF','','publish','open','closed','','brexitwtf','','','2016-02-28 13:10:39','2016-02-28 18:10:39','',0,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?p=7361',0,'post','',0),(7362,1,'2016-02-28 13:09:15','2016-02-28 18:09:15','<strong><u>THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU\r\n\r\n</u></strong>\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li><strong> INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nBeing honest is important in all matters to do with life, this includes Forex Trading. I am fairly active on social media. Twitter is an important vehicle for traders as it is instant. If you are active on twitter you will see no one loses money, no one has poor trades and no one ever admits to errors. Everything is always perfect and rosy. What you will notice however is that from time to time people disappear. These are probably the ones that did lose money, did make errors.\r\n\r\nThe simple facts are in trading you will lose money on some trades and you will make some bad calls. Its a fact of life, nothing is 100% perfect.\r\n\r\nLast week was my worst week in Forex Trading since I started trading for a number of reasons.\r\n\r\nFirstly, the week opened with Boris Johnson (Lord Mayor of London), announcing hours before the market opened that he would be in favour of a BREXIT. I was quite active on twitter at the time about the fact the Boris although being Mayor of London is a little eccentric, and on the basis that many years ago, wanted the government to take VAT off bicycle puncture repair kits, would not carry much sway. It also appeared that, the Mayor of London, the largest financial capital in Europe supporting the BREXIT would seem a little weird to say the least.\r\n\r\nThe facts were the market liked his BREXIT announcement and whoosh the GBP was hit across the board. I had positions long GBP/NZD. My wife and I were away from home; the initial GAP lower was partially filled, so I felt that the “Boris” effect was nullified. Returning home I was well under water looking at Fibonacci levels and after a huge fall, the GBP/NZD stabilized. These were longer-term trades and the pair had basically moved to the limits of the monthly ATR range. For a couple of days it looked like they were maintaining this level and consolidating the position. This pair moves on average in excess of 900 pips a month, 200/300 in a day can be normal.\r\n\r\nSo, in summary, not happy to be so far away from the market but in reality this pair does need a lot of wiggle room.\r\n\r\nSecondly, living just outside of Montreal, we are prone to severe weather. On Wednesday evening we started receiving severe freezing rain (an ice storm), which resulted in over 260 areas of power outages affecting over 250,000 homes in the immediate Montreal area due to the weight of the ice on power cables etc. No electricity, no Internet connections. My backups were not working, everything was frozen out! Even the cell phone (mobile) connection was on emergency only.\r\n\r\nI trade with stops but they are wide to keep me in trades to avoid the chop and due to the fact that the markets are now operating on much less liquidity they need to be wider. (I was going to write about FX MARKET LIQUIDITY this week but that has been postponed, I have 4 topics on ice now).\r\n\r\nThursday afternoon I went to a friend’s home to charge up devices and check on matters Forex. At this point I had suffered two big losses on the GBP/NZD as I had been taken, other trades I moved stops to either keep me in or take me out at just below or above the next levels of Fibonacci support or resistance. I was sacrificing trades… to coin a phrase; I was not a happy bunny.\r\n\r\nReturning home, I found out that the local community centre had opened to support the locals and at the same time that we would not have power restored for at least another 30 hours! You have to bear in mind we are at -10/-15 degrees Celsius with no heat, or power. This is why we have two Labradors (Ozzy &amp; Aoife (Eefa)); you can cuddle the dogs, one each, to keep warm!\r\n\r\nIn the cold, no computers, no power, listening to an emergency self-cranking radio for news in candlelight. Romantic maybe; but all the time I knew that there was a good chance that I was probably hemorrhaging cash and pips from my accounts. The hydro (power) came back earlier than anticipated but then the ISP’s were not functioning 100%. Connections to both the hydro and ISP’s on Friday during the day were unreliable and came and went with frequency. It was just impossible to do anything. I tried to communicate about stops and taking profits and losses. It was as I tweeted to subscribers a complete nightmare.\r\n\r\nComing next on the horizon is about 30 cms of snow over the next 7 days, so not sure what excitement lies ahead with this weather front!\r\n\r\nIn summary, I took a hit cash wise and on pips (over 2,000) as trades were sacrificed or stops were taken. This was my own version of the EUR/CHF peg removal from just over a year ago. I bounced back from that event, like I will bounce back from this one.\r\n\r\nSo, the phrase is I am charged up like a “Duracell Bunny” ready to go… but no revenge trading!\r\n\r\nOn a happier note the February PREMIUM SERVICE (SILVER) winner is Alex from the UK (<a href=\"mailto:alex@jxxxxx-xxxxxxxxxx.co.uk\">alex@jxxxxx-xxxxxxxxxx.co.uk</a>). All the communications and information has been sent. I hope that Alex enjoys my March trading suggestions; I am fired up and raring to go.\r\n\r\nJust to remind you; you could be the next winner of a free PREMIUM SERVICE (SILVER) subscription; if you subscribe to receive this free blog via my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nYou are automatically entered into a free monthly draw, once you’ve subscribed. Each month during 2016 one lucky blog subscriber will receive a free subscription to the PREMIUM SERVICE (SILVER).\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>2.1: WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber, fee based trade set-up option for Forex traders regardless of experience or background. I provide traders suggested trades, and some market commentary related to open trades or factors within the overall market that have my interest.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and the various trade styles plus how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nAdditional information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE you will require a PayPal account.\r\n\r\n<u>2.2: PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE THIS MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\nNET PIPS THIS MONTH SO FAR:            -1,531\r\nNET PIPS THIS YEAR SO FAR:                -132\r\n\r\nNET PIPS 2015        +10,686\r\nNET PIPS 2014        +11,209\r\n\r\n(I trade basically for 10 months a year. I do not trade from mid July through early September or mid December through early January).\r\n\r\nIf you want more data or detail about the performance and the tabs on my website landing page do not answer your questions, contact me directly and I will supply the trading data you require. There are NO secrets. There are many, many spreadsheets detailing performance trade by trade and by trade and by trading style, way too many to place in this blog. If you are interested in the PREMIUM SERVICE and want more information, all you have to do is ask.\r\n\r\nNo better time to join. I have a point to prove starting the year from zero again after last week’s shenanigans with power outages.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n2.3: PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBER PROMOTION:</u>\r\n\r\nThis promotion ends tomorrow night.\r\n\r\nYou can check this out on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by clicking on the FX PROMOTIONS tab at the top of the page.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>3.1: LAST WEEK’S NEWS – MY THOUGHTS:</strong>\r\n\r\nIt was all about BREXIT at the start of the week. I was quite shocked that the EURO was not under as much pressure as the cable. The Brits potentially leaving the community is a big thing for the EUROZONE. I must admit to finding all the action in the cable a little weird.\r\n\r\nNow let me caveat that, the EUR/CHF nosed dived, so even with negative interest rates there was a flight to safety. The EUR/GBP moved higher as the GBP/USD moved lower so cross rate effects were at play. Plus at the same time market uncertainty was high and the JPY was strengthening as well creating an overall flight to safety in FX.\r\n\r\nI missed the GDP release in the U.S. at the end of the week, but the FED will no doubt be delighted that GDP was revised up to 1.0% from the previously released 0.7% for Q4 2015 (Q3 was 2.0%). The USD strengthened across the board, all day it was relentless.\r\n\r\nIt comes to something, not quite sure what when, the largest economy in the world had GDP at 1.0% and the market reaction, at least in FX is euphoric. What a strange, weird, crazy world we live in!\r\n\r\nThat is said, without any reference to the “circus” aka the U.S. GOP (Republican) Presidential Debate from last Thursday. If that is the best that the U.S. GOP has to offer as the “Leader” of the free world, God help us all.\r\n\r\nThere was nothing Presidential about the 2 hours I saw on a CNN repeat showing overnight. Frankly, that program was shown all around the world, if an American ever questions why the world views them as idiots and why the U.S. political process and government is viewed as dysfunctional here is the answer.\r\n\r\nIt was embarrassing to say the least and frankly the TV networks see it as sensationalism rather than what it actually is. Not one TV station has thought beyond the now, no in-depth thoughts, just a cheap media circus vying for viewer numbers to gain advertising revenue. It was awful. These people believe that they have what it takes to be a President, and I am really focused on Trump, Rubio and Cruz, zero respect for each other, it was childlike and if either of these three should become President…my God!\r\n\r\nIt was a reality TV show at it’s best or worst depending upon your viewpoint. I do not like to get too political in this blog, and the only reason I bring up that debate is that moving forward the market uncertainties will be huge.\r\n\r\nOn one hand you have Donald Trump way out in front with the Republican Party but his chequered history is starting to catch up. On the other side, there is a good chance it’s Hillary Clinton and she could be indicted ahead of the presidential campaign.\r\n\r\nThe GOP party machine must be pooping their pants at the moment. I would say in the coming months there will be smear campaigns and court battles ahead. Welcome to the “free world”, the worst of America will have its dirtiest underwear washed in public… guaranteed.\r\n\r\nIs this the best the U.S. has with a population of 300 million people?\r\n\r\nGood Lord, what a world we live in.\r\n\r\nNever mind “God Bless America”, it will be “God Help America”.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>3.2: WHAT’S ON MY MIND:</strong>\r\n<h4 style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>BREXIT…WTF</strong></h4>\r\nHarold Wilson, the long gone Labour Prime Minister of the UK in the 1970’s and 80’s was famous for two quotes that resonate with me even now after so many years: -\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>“This will not affect the pound (GBP) in your pocket” – after sterling’s devaluation</strong>\r\n<strong>and</strong>\r\n<strong>“ A week is a long time in politics”</strong></p>\r\nA week ago David Cameron (UK Prime Minister), returned from Brussels waving papers in the air reminiscent of pictures from WWII, saying that we have a deal worthy of remaining in the European community. Cable rallied / shot up across the board, like a rat up a drainpipe.\r\n\r\n48 hours later Boris Johnson (Lord Mayor of London) holds a press conference on his doorstep outside his swanky London abode telling a gathered press that he has agonized over his thoughts and at the end of this torture he has decided that in his opinion, the best interests of the UK people are served if they are no longer connected to Europe and that he is in favour of a BREXIT.\r\n\r\nWTF – the Mayor of the Financial centre of Europe says boll**ks…f**k this for a game of soldiers.\r\n\r\nHe is entitled to his opinions, I have no issue with that at all, but take a step back and think about the ramifications. I am not going to dwell on this, enough has been and more will be written about the effects on the UK.\r\n\r\nBriefly, the gripes in the UK over Europe can probably be summed up in one word SOVEREIGNTY. The Brits who support BREXIT believe SOVEREIGNTY is just being continually eroded and at the same in return for losing more control over one’s own destiny you pay more each year into the EUROZONE coffers for this privilege. In recent months, Migration, Regulation, Costs of Membership of the EUROZONE about $80 million per day and reduced influence as the UK is not a single currency user have all fuelled the BREXIT calls.\r\n\r\nThe UK does NOT adopt the EUR (single currency) therefore they are not in the elite club at the heart of Europe. What influence can you have if you do not have a seat in the centre? This is a compelling argument.\r\n\r\nHere are a few of my initial thoughts: -\r\n\r\nCould $80 million a day be better spent?\r\n\r\nWithout EU regulation could the UK once again strike up better trade deals with China, U.S., the Commonwealth and even the EUROZONE?\r\n\r\nCould another variance of EFTA (The European Free Trade Association) be formulated for those countries in Europe but not in the EUROZONE?\r\n\r\nMoving forward…\r\n\r\nCould this be the beginning of the end of the EUROZONE, as we know it?\r\n\r\nThe EUROZONE existence is fragile at best. There is no union as I have written about many times over the past three years. On paper the concept of a unified Europe looks good but it has so many flaws and it was born in another bye-gone era when the world was different and expectations were different.\r\n\r\nThis is an article in itself for a future blog.\r\n\r\nAt the centre of BREXIT, I have mentioned SOVEREIGNTY but as with the failings of the EUROZONE we should also consider culture. Geographically, the English Channel has always kept the UK one step removed from continental Europe. The cultural divergence between the Mediterranean countries in the south and the powerhouses with money in the North has always been underestimated. The one size fits all approach has proved not to work. The Brits may have money like other Northern European countries but the way of life in the UK whilst cosmopolitan is different to that of France and Germany. Deep-rooted mistrust of the French is often joked and laughed about in pubs and over meals at dinner parties. The non-bending German approach, seen by most Brits is arrogance. The one thing that Brits love is pomp and ceremony if anyone can afford arrogance it\'s the Brits not the Germans.\r\n\r\nThe counter-balance argument is that Britain needs Europe, for trade, it is the UK’s biggest trading partner. This is business, price dominates and the EUROZONE will not cut off its nose to spite its face. Deals will still be done. Exports will still happen. Neither the UK nor the EUROZONE, which exports hugely to the UK, can afford a trade war.\r\n\r\nIt sounds like I am writing that a BREXIT would be good for the UK. My point is I believe the BREXIT if it were to happen late June when the UK referendum takes place, is bigger for the EUROZONE than it is for the UK.\r\n\r\nI will say one word – CONTAGION.\r\n\r\nI will revisit this subject in a future blog article.\r\n\r\nWhat’s next?\r\n\r\nAs Forex traders how will all this affect our trading?\r\n\r\n“A week is a long time in politics”, however, “Four months is a fecking lifetime in trading currencies”\r\n\r\nAlthough I was taken to the woodshed with my GBP/NZD longs, I am still holding some GBP/NZD long trades, for the very long-term, I might add.\r\n\r\nWhat do I think we should look at? It is very, very early but my thoughts at the moment, and, they could change are as follows: -\r\n\r\nObviously all BREXIT news will affect the GBP/USD directly and the crosses GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD and GBP/CAD will be very volatile. The AUD and NZD crosses are very tradable with “RISK ON or RISK OFF” and the GBP/CAD will be influenced as well with movements in crude oil.\r\n\r\nI am interested in the EUR/GBP and maybe the EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY and GBP/CHF. Why I hear you ask?\r\n\r\nEUR/GBP is liquid. It is often ignored. Since December last year it has appreciated about 5% as we moved from an ECB meltdown risk to a referendum risk. Is it the best barometer of risk? With regards to the Scottish referendum it was the trade to be in and many people, including myself missed it. Its direct European focus interests me.\r\n\r\nThe GBP/CHF is the inverted trade to the EUR/GBP and because of the CHF flight to safety trade it would be consistent with a direction. The EUR/CHF could also be traded for the same reasons. As with the EUR/GBP direct European based currencies may offer better directional consistencies.\r\n\r\nThe EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY are key pairs with regards to the trade relations between UK, Europe and Japan and sensitive to changes that can affect trading conditions.\r\n\r\nThere is no doubt in my mind if the BREXIT fails the GBP will rocket for two or three days on the news and as traders we should be long GBP/USD, GBP/AUD, GBP/CAD, GBP/CHF, GBP/NZD, GBP/JPY and short EUR/GBP. In addition the EUR/JPY long should be a good trade.\r\n\r\nShould the BREXIT vote win, there would be carnage…. blood all over computer screens and terminals. Not because of the fact the UK wants out of Europe, but due to pure and simple change and uncertainty.\r\n\r\nMarkets hate change… they certainly hate uncertainty… the keys drivers of any market would then rule… FEAR and GREED.\r\n\r\nThe markets would adjust over time, right now even JCB digger Mark Carney (BOE Governor) has admitted that plans are afoot in case of a BREXIT decision.\r\n\r\nIt will take time to exit. It will be volatile as things settle but life goes on. At least the UK is not going back to Sterling (GBP) from the Euro (EUR), which would have been more volatile and I would say that had the UK been a full member of the EUROZONE (with the Euro currency) that would have been the end of the single currency.\r\n\r\nI will revisit this topic on several occasions in the next four month.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) EXCLUSIVE CONTENT:\r\n</strong>(This area contains exclusive content for PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) subscribers)</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n	<li><strong> COMING UP THIS WEEK:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5.1: THIS WEEK’S FOREX NEWS THAT INTERESTS ME:</u>\r\n\r\n(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market other than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to <a href=\"http://www.forexfactory.com\">www.forexfactory.com</a> and <a href=\"http://www.tradingeconomics.com\">www.tradingeconomics.com</a> for a more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).\r\nSUNDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: AUD – Building Approvals &amp; RBA Rate Statement.\r\nMONDAY: CNY – Manufacturing PMi.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: GBP – Manufacturing PMi.\r\nTUESDAY: CAD – GDP.\r\nTUESDAY: NZD – GDT Dairy Auction Prices.\r\nTUESDAY: USD – ISM Manufacturing PMi.\r\nTUESDAY: AUD – GDP.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: GBP – Construction PMi.\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – ADP Non-Farm Employment Change.\r\nWEDNESDAY: AUD – Trade Balance.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: GBP – Services PMI.\r\nTHURSDAY: USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.\r\nTHURSDAY: AUD – Retail Sales.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: USD – Non-Farm Payrolls, Trade Balance and Unemployment Rate.\r\nFRIDAY: CAD – Trade Balance.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>5.1: THE USD MAJORS SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS: </u>\r\n\r\n(In this section I have as usual kept my charts as minimalist as possible. With regards to charting in my opinion less is more!! I hope that they are clear. All readers regardless of level of experience should be able to follow my thoughts from my comments to the levels on the charts with ease)\r\n\r\nMy comments are usually contained on the charts. However, this week my usual charting service is not responding and therefore my comments are below the charts for each currency pair.\r\n\r\nEUR/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.0927\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/brexit-wtf/eurusddaily27022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7346\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7346\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/EURUSDDaily27022016.png\" alt=\"EURUSDDaily27022016\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\nA nasty engulfing daily candle has been posted to end the week. We closed just on trend line support. The next Fibonacci level lower is at 1.0850, the 61.8% retracement. I would say that this is a key level to hold moving forward. A break of this level and we are heading to 1.0500 once again. Remember, we have Mario Draghi on March 10<sup>th</sup>. This meeting takes on even greater importance should this pair come under pressure at that time.\r\n\r\nGBP/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.3866\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/brexit-wtf/gbpusdmonthly27022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7347\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7347\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/GBPUSDMonthly27022016.png\" alt=\"GBPUSDMonthly27022016\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\nWhat can I add that hasn’t been added by umpteen analysts and commentators already? The cable is under real meltdown pressure and frankly using Fibonacci extensions and previous horizontal support levels is the best that I can do. 1.3775 offers a confluence of fibs, it’s too messy to put on this chart. After that we have 1.3660 and 1.3500, and after that to quote Alice Cooper we’re all off to hell on one bastard of a ride!!\r\n\r\nThis pair needs to break above 1.4050 to take the selling pressure off. That level seems a mile away.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.7121\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/brexit-wtf/audusddaily27022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7345\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7345\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/AUDUSDDaily27022016.png\" alt=\"AUDUSDDaily27022016\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\nA nice bearish engulfing candle to end the week. Beware though; there is a great deal of front line Australian data this week, the biggest being the RBA Rate Statement late Monday evening (EST).\r\n\r\nWithout doubt this pair will suffer if commodity prices come under pressure once again and we also note that China PMi data is also out on Monday evening before the RBA announcement.\r\n\r\nThis is a big week for this pair. Support at 0.7000 will be big and if you look at the chart above you will see wicks above the horizontal resistance line at 0.7245 these indicate false breakouts. This is bearish in my eyes.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.6627\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/brexit-wtf/nzdusddaily27022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7348\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7348\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/NZDUSDDaily27022016.png\" alt=\"NZDUSDDaily27022016\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\nLooking forward, the support level of 0.6600 will be big support not for just being a round number but it is also the 38.2% Fibonacci support level. Similar to the AUD/USD, a false breakout above previous good resistance is bearish in my eyes. The Dairy auction prices on Tuesday will be interesting to follow and also the RBA statement will have influence on future RBNZ policy moves as well.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.3510\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/brexit-wtf/usdcaddaily27022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7349\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7349\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCADDaily27022016.png\" alt=\"USDCADDaily27022016\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\nThe 61.8% support at 1.3550 has given way and this pair looks bearish on the daily chart. The USD/CAD is now not as responsive to oil prices as it has been in the past. If oil blasts higher this pair will drop like a lead balloon and the cross rates will go with it.\r\n\r\nFor now, I still feel that the oil relationship will come back sooner rather than later and with a Canadian budget due plus another BOC meeting shortly after (I think), do not be surprised if these two events combined weaken the CAD$.\r\n\r\nFor now I feel bearish the pair, but longer term knowing what I do know about the Canadian economy is that it is under pressure everywhere apart from Toronto and Vancouver and expect a weak CAD moving forward.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF - Weekly Closing Price: 0.9955\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/brexit-wtf/usdchfdaily27022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7350\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7350\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCHFDaily27022016.png\" alt=\"USDCHFDaily27022016\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\nI like being long this pair. I always feel like I am trading if I am selling the CHF currency, excepting peg removal day.\r\n\r\nShould the EUR/USD continue to move lower, this pair should head higher unless a flight to safety trade takes over in Europe due to all the geopolitical news around. 1.0030 (61.8% Fibonacci) is a key level to pass and recent trend highs of 1.0250 will be difficult to pass unless the EUR/USD takes a nosedive.\r\n\r\nI have an ARMAGEDDON long trade set up below 0.9500. What a wonderful mind I have just in case the wheels fall off the bus!!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY - Weekly Closing Price: 113.96\r\n\r\n<u><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/brexit-wtf/usdjpydaily27022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7351\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7351\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDJPYDaily27022016.png\" alt=\"USDJPYDaily27022016\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a></u>\r\n\r\nI have marked the 38% retracement at 115.00. I believe that is a great area to enter short. If that does not hold, try again at 116.00. Looking at the past few days 115.00 has held and so the risk / reward looks good.\r\n\r\nAlthough not on this chart there is a head and shoulders measured move to about 105.50 available once this pair breaks below 110.80.\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3: CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nA big week for news lies ahead of us.\r\n\r\nObviously, U.S. Non-Farm Employment data on Friday is the big end to the week.\r\n\r\nThere is a great deal of Australian news this week starting with the RBA on Monday evening (2230 EST). This will be a big week down under, as the comments from Glenn Stevens will be examined more closely than usual given recent comments by his sidekick Edwards stating that RBA would be more comfortable with the AUD/USD exchange rate around 0.6500.\r\n\r\nThe cable will be in the news a great deal this week as the political debate over BREXIT or not to BREXIT will gather some steam.\r\n\r\nI should also be watchful over risk sentiment this week. Should the commodity area come under pressure the USD will strengthen once again and before we know it we could be back up at 100.00 again if we see a very bullish and positive NFP number.\r\n\r\nIt is the circle of life FX style, because a bullish NFP and bullish USD will bring back commentary relating to how many damn rate hikes there could be by the FED in 2016! Just when you thought it was safe to step out of the door, all the bloody CNBC and BLOOMBERG contributors spouting off I told you so will come crawling out from under their rocks again…\r\n\r\nBy the way I told you so as well…I am still in the camp of 3 / 4 rate increases this year, I believe that Janet Yellen has at least a 1.0% goal in mind. Holy Mother of God, all these shenanigans over the biggest economy in the world where we are constantly being told everything is so damn brilliant we struggle to get off zirp… go figure. It’s like a GOP debate full of cow, camel and bullsh*t.\r\n\r\nBe careful and ever watchful on oil. The CAD is acting wild like its nickname the “loonie”. Do not worry though, the Canadian politicians who have more holidays than workdays are back in the Ottawa parliament and soon the eagerly awaited budget by new Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will be released. Together with masterly inactivity by Stephen Poloz at the BOC, I predict the USD/CAD at 1.5000+ by the summer, with QE (Quantitative Easing) and negative interest rates also in play.\r\n\r\nBe savvy…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nTake care,\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nDATE: 27<sup>h</sup> February 2016\r\nBLOG REFERENCE: #190 FREE NEWSLETTER\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','BREXIT…WTF','','inherit','closed','closed','','7361-revision-v1','','','2016-02-28 13:09:15','2016-02-28 18:09:15','',7361,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/7361-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(7363,1,'2016-02-28 13:10:39','2016-02-28 18:10:39','<strong><u>THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU</u></strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li><strong> INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nBeing honest is important in all matters to do with life, this includes Forex Trading. I am fairly active on social media. Twitter is an important vehicle for traders as it is instant. If you are active on twitter you will see no one loses money, no one has poor trades and no one ever admits to errors. Everything is always perfect and rosy. What you will notice however is that from time to time people disappear. These are probably the ones that did lose money, did make errors.\r\n\r\nThe simple facts are in trading you will lose money on some trades and you will make some bad calls. Its a fact of life, nothing is 100% perfect.\r\n\r\nLast week was my worst week in Forex Trading since I started trading for a number of reasons.\r\n\r\nFirstly, the week opened with Boris Johnson (Lord Mayor of London), announcing hours before the market opened that he would be in favour of a BREXIT. I was quite active on twitter at the time about the fact the Boris although being Mayor of London is a little eccentric, and on the basis that many years ago, wanted the government to take VAT off bicycle puncture repair kits, would not carry much sway. It also appeared that, the Mayor of London, the largest financial capital in Europe supporting the BREXIT would seem a little weird to say the least.\r\n\r\nThe facts were the market liked his BREXIT announcement and whoosh the GBP was hit across the board. I had positions long GBP/NZD. My wife and I were away from home; the initial GAP lower was partially filled, so I felt that the “Boris” effect was nullified. Returning home I was well under water looking at Fibonacci levels and after a huge fall, the GBP/NZD stabilized. These were longer-term trades and the pair had basically moved to the limits of the monthly ATR range. For a couple of days it looked like they were maintaining this level and consolidating the position. This pair moves on average in excess of 900 pips a month, 200/300 in a day can be normal.\r\n\r\nSo, in summary, not happy to be so far away from the market but in reality this pair does need a lot of wiggle room.\r\n\r\nSecondly, living just outside of Montreal, we are prone to severe weather. On Wednesday evening we started receiving severe freezing rain (an ice storm), which resulted in over 260 areas of power outages affecting over 250,000 homes in the immediate Montreal area due to the weight of the ice on power cables etc. No electricity, no Internet connections. My backups were not working, everything was frozen out! Even the cell phone (mobile) connection was on emergency only.\r\n\r\nI trade with stops but they are wide to keep me in trades to avoid the chop and due to the fact that the markets are now operating on much less liquidity they need to be wider. (I was going to write about FX MARKET LIQUIDITY this week but that has been postponed, I have 4 topics on ice now).\r\n\r\nThursday afternoon I went to a friend’s home to charge up devices and check on matters Forex. At this point I had suffered two big losses on the GBP/NZD as I had been taken, other trades I moved stops to either keep me in or take me out at just below or above the next levels of Fibonacci support or resistance. I was sacrificing trades… to coin a phrase; I was not a happy bunny.\r\n\r\nReturning home, I found out that the local community centre had opened to support the locals and at the same time that we would not have power restored for at least another 30 hours! You have to bear in mind we are at -10/-15 degrees Celsius with no heat, or power. This is why we have two Labradors (Ozzy &amp; Aoife (Eefa)); you can cuddle the dogs, one each, to keep warm!\r\n\r\nIn the cold, no computers, no power, listening to an emergency self-cranking radio for news in candlelight. Romantic maybe; but all the time I knew that there was a good chance that I was probably hemorrhaging cash and pips from my accounts. The hydro (power) came back earlier than anticipated but then the ISP’s were not functioning 100%. Connections to both the hydro and ISP’s on Friday during the day were unreliable and came and went with frequency. It was just impossible to do anything. I tried to communicate about stops and taking profits and losses. It was as I tweeted to subscribers a complete nightmare.\r\n\r\nComing next on the horizon is about 30 cms of snow over the next 7 days, so not sure what excitement lies ahead with this weather front!\r\n\r\nIn summary, I took a hit cash wise and on pips (over 2,000) as trades were sacrificed or stops were taken. This was my own version of the EUR/CHF peg removal from just over a year ago. I bounced back from that event, like I will bounce back from this one.\r\n\r\nSo, the phrase is I am charged up like a “Duracell Bunny” ready to go… but no revenge trading!\r\n\r\nOn a happier note the February PREMIUM SERVICE (SILVER) winner is Alex from the UK (<a href=\"mailto:alex@jxxxxx-xxxxxxxxxx.co.uk\">alex@jxxxxx-xxxxxxxxxx.co.uk</a>). All the communications and information has been sent. I hope that Alex enjoys my March trading suggestions; I am fired up and raring to go.\r\n\r\nJust to remind you; you could be the next winner of a free PREMIUM SERVICE (SILVER) subscription; if you subscribe to receive this free blog via my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nYou are automatically entered into a free monthly draw, once you’ve subscribed. Each month during 2016 one lucky blog subscriber will receive a free subscription to the PREMIUM SERVICE (SILVER).\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>2.1: WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber, fee based trade set-up option for Forex traders regardless of experience or background. I provide traders suggested trades, and some market commentary related to open trades or factors within the overall market that have my interest.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and the various trade styles plus how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nAdditional information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE you will require a PayPal account.\r\n\r\n<u>2.2: PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE THIS MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\nNET PIPS THIS MONTH SO FAR:            -1,531\r\nNET PIPS THIS YEAR SO FAR:                -132\r\n\r\nNET PIPS 2015        +10,686\r\nNET PIPS 2014        +11,209\r\n\r\n(I trade basically for 10 months a year. I do not trade from mid July through early September or mid December through early January).\r\n\r\nIf you want more data or detail about the performance and the tabs on my website landing page do not answer your questions, contact me directly and I will supply the trading data you require. There are NO secrets. There are many, many spreadsheets detailing performance trade by trade and by trade and by trading style, way too many to place in this blog. If you are interested in the PREMIUM SERVICE and want more information, all you have to do is ask.\r\n\r\nNo better time to join. I have a point to prove starting the year from zero again after last week’s shenanigans with power outages.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n2.3: PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBER PROMOTION:</u>\r\n\r\nThis promotion ends tomorrow night.\r\n\r\nYou can check this out on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by clicking on the FX PROMOTIONS tab at the top of the page.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>3.1: LAST WEEK’S NEWS – MY THOUGHTS:</strong>\r\n\r\nIt was all about BREXIT at the start of the week. I was quite shocked that the EURO was not under as much pressure as the cable. The Brits potentially leaving the community is a big thing for the EUROZONE. I must admit to finding all the action in the cable a little weird.\r\n\r\nNow let me caveat that, the EUR/CHF nosed dived, so even with negative interest rates there was a flight to safety. The EUR/GBP moved higher as the GBP/USD moved lower so cross rate effects were at play. Plus at the same time market uncertainty was high and the JPY was strengthening as well creating an overall flight to safety in FX.\r\n\r\nI missed the GDP release in the U.S. at the end of the week, but the FED will no doubt be delighted that GDP was revised up to 1.0% from the previously released 0.7% for Q4 2015 (Q3 was 2.0%). The USD strengthened across the board, all day it was relentless.\r\n\r\nIt comes to something, not quite sure what when, the largest economy in the world had GDP at 1.0% and the market reaction, at least in FX is euphoric. What a strange, weird, crazy world we live in!\r\n\r\nThat is said, without any reference to the “circus” aka the U.S. GOP (Republican) Presidential Debate from last Thursday. If that is the best that the U.S. GOP has to offer as the “Leader” of the free world, God help us all.\r\n\r\nThere was nothing Presidential about the 2 hours I saw on a CNN repeat showing overnight. Frankly, that program was shown all around the world, if an American ever questions why the world views them as idiots and why the U.S. political process and government is viewed as dysfunctional here is the answer.\r\n\r\nIt was embarrassing to say the least and frankly the TV networks see it as sensationalism rather than what it actually is. Not one TV station has thought beyond the now, no in-depth thoughts, just a cheap media circus vying for viewer numbers to gain advertising revenue. It was awful. These people believe that they have what it takes to be a President, and I am really focused on Trump, Rubio and Cruz, zero respect for each other, it was childlike and if either of these three should become President…my God!\r\n\r\nIt was a reality TV show at it’s best or worst depending upon your viewpoint. I do not like to get too political in this blog, and the only reason I bring up that debate is that moving forward the market uncertainties will be huge.\r\n\r\nOn one hand you have Donald Trump way out in front with the Republican Party but his chequered history is starting to catch up. On the other side, there is a good chance it’s Hillary Clinton and she could be indicted ahead of the presidential campaign.\r\n\r\nThe GOP party machine must be pooping their pants at the moment. I would say in the coming months there will be smear campaigns and court battles ahead. Welcome to the “free world”, the worst of America will have its dirtiest underwear washed in public… guaranteed.\r\n\r\nIs this the best the U.S. has with a population of 300 million people?\r\n\r\nGood Lord, what a world we live in.\r\n\r\nNever mind “God Bless America”, it will be “God Help America”.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>3.2: WHAT’S ON MY MIND:</strong>\r\n<h4 style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>BREXIT…WTF</strong></h4>\r\nHarold Wilson, the long gone Labour Prime Minister of the UK in the 1970’s and 80’s was famous for two quotes that resonate with me even now after so many years: -\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>“This will not affect the pound (GBP) in your pocket” – after sterling’s devaluation</strong>\r\n<strong>and</strong>\r\n<strong>“ A week is a long time in politics”</strong></p>\r\nA week ago David Cameron (UK Prime Minister), returned from Brussels waving papers in the air reminiscent of pictures from WWII, saying that we have a deal worthy of remaining in the European community. Cable rallied / shot up across the board, like a rat up a drainpipe.\r\n\r\n48 hours later Boris Johnson (Lord Mayor of London) holds a press conference on his doorstep outside his swanky London abode telling a gathered press that he has agonized over his thoughts and at the end of this torture he has decided that in his opinion, the best interests of the UK people are served if they are no longer connected to Europe and that he is in favour of a BREXIT.\r\n\r\nWTF – the Mayor of the Financial centre of Europe says boll**ks…f**k this for a game of soldiers.\r\n\r\nHe is entitled to his opinions, I have no issue with that at all, but take a step back and think about the ramifications. I am not going to dwell on this, enough has been and more will be written about the effects on the UK.\r\n\r\nBriefly, the gripes in the UK over Europe can probably be summed up in one word SOVEREIGNTY. The Brits who support BREXIT believe SOVEREIGNTY is just being continually eroded and at the same in return for losing more control over one’s own destiny you pay more each year into the EUROZONE coffers for this privilege. In recent months, Migration, Regulation, Costs of Membership of the EUROZONE about $80 million per day and reduced influence as the UK is not a single currency user have all fuelled the BREXIT calls.\r\n\r\nThe UK does NOT adopt the EUR (single currency) therefore they are not in the elite club at the heart of Europe. What influence can you have if you do not have a seat in the centre? This is a compelling argument.\r\n\r\nHere are a few of my initial thoughts: -\r\n\r\nCould $80 million a day be better spent?\r\n\r\nWithout EU regulation could the UK once again strike up better trade deals with China, U.S., the Commonwealth and even the EUROZONE?\r\n\r\nCould another variance of EFTA (The European Free Trade Association) be formulated for those countries in Europe but not in the EUROZONE?\r\n\r\nMoving forward…\r\n\r\nCould this be the beginning of the end of the EUROZONE, as we know it?\r\n\r\nThe EUROZONE existence is fragile at best. There is no union as I have written about many times over the past three years. On paper the concept of a unified Europe looks good but it has so many flaws and it was born in another bye-gone era when the world was different and expectations were different.\r\n\r\nThis is an article in itself for a future blog.\r\n\r\nAt the centre of BREXIT, I have mentioned SOVEREIGNTY but as with the failings of the EUROZONE we should also consider culture. Geographically, the English Channel has always kept the UK one step removed from continental Europe. The cultural divergence between the Mediterranean countries in the south and the powerhouses with money in the North has always been underestimated. The one size fits all approach has proved not to work. The Brits may have money like other Northern European countries but the way of life in the UK whilst cosmopolitan is different to that of France and Germany. Deep-rooted mistrust of the French is often joked and laughed about in pubs and over meals at dinner parties. The non-bending German approach, seen by most Brits is arrogance. The one thing that Brits love is pomp and ceremony if anyone can afford arrogance it\'s the Brits not the Germans.\r\n\r\nThe counter-balance argument is that Britain needs Europe, for trade, it is the UK’s biggest trading partner. This is business, price dominates and the EUROZONE will not cut off its nose to spite its face. Deals will still be done. Exports will still happen. Neither the UK nor the EUROZONE, which exports hugely to the UK, can afford a trade war.\r\n\r\nIt sounds like I am writing that a BREXIT would be good for the UK. My point is I believe the BREXIT if it were to happen late June when the UK referendum takes place, is bigger for the EUROZONE than it is for the UK.\r\n\r\nI will say one word – CONTAGION.\r\n\r\nI will revisit this subject in a future blog article.\r\n\r\nWhat’s next?\r\n\r\nAs Forex traders how will all this affect our trading?\r\n\r\n“A week is a long time in politics”, however, “Four months is a fecking lifetime in trading currencies”\r\n\r\nAlthough I was taken to the woodshed with my GBP/NZD longs, I am still holding some GBP/NZD long trades, for the very long-term, I might add.\r\n\r\nWhat do I think we should look at? It is very, very early but my thoughts at the moment, and, they could change are as follows: -\r\n\r\nObviously all BREXIT news will affect the GBP/USD directly and the crosses GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD and GBP/CAD will be very volatile. The AUD and NZD crosses are very tradable with “RISK ON or RISK OFF” and the GBP/CAD will be influenced as well with movements in crude oil.\r\n\r\nI am interested in the EUR/GBP and maybe the EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY and GBP/CHF. Why I hear you ask?\r\n\r\nEUR/GBP is liquid. It is often ignored. Since December last year it has appreciated about 5% as we moved from an ECB meltdown risk to a referendum risk. Is it the best barometer of risk? With regards to the Scottish referendum it was the trade to be in and many people, including myself missed it. Its direct European focus interests me.\r\n\r\nThe GBP/CHF is the inverted trade to the EUR/GBP and because of the CHF flight to safety trade it would be consistent with a direction. The EUR/CHF could also be traded for the same reasons. As with the EUR/GBP direct European based currencies may offer better directional consistencies.\r\n\r\nThe EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY are key pairs with regards to the trade relations between UK, Europe and Japan and sensitive to changes that can affect trading conditions.\r\n\r\nThere is no doubt in my mind if the BREXIT fails the GBP will rocket for two or three days on the news and as traders we should be long GBP/USD, GBP/AUD, GBP/CAD, GBP/CHF, GBP/NZD, GBP/JPY and short EUR/GBP. In addition the EUR/JPY long should be a good trade.\r\n\r\nShould the BREXIT vote win, there would be carnage…. blood all over computer screens and terminals. Not because of the fact the UK wants out of Europe, but due to pure and simple change and uncertainty.\r\n\r\nMarkets hate change… they certainly hate uncertainty… the keys drivers of any market would then rule… FEAR and GREED.\r\n\r\nThe markets would adjust over time, right now even JCB digger Mark Carney (BOE Governor) has admitted that plans are afoot in case of a BREXIT decision.\r\n\r\nIt will take time to exit. It will be volatile as things settle but life goes on. At least the UK is not going back to Sterling (GBP) from the Euro (EUR), which would have been more volatile and I would say that had the UK been a full member of the EUROZONE (with the Euro currency) that would have been the end of the single currency.\r\n\r\nI will revisit this topic on several occasions in the next four month.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) EXCLUSIVE CONTENT:\r\n</strong>(This area contains exclusive content for PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) subscribers)</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n	<li><strong> COMING UP THIS WEEK:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5.1: THIS WEEK’S FOREX NEWS THAT INTERESTS ME:</u>\r\n\r\n(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market other than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to <a href=\"http://www.forexfactory.com\">www.forexfactory.com</a> and <a href=\"http://www.tradingeconomics.com\">www.tradingeconomics.com</a> for a more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).\r\nSUNDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: AUD – Building Approvals &amp; RBA Rate Statement.\r\nMONDAY: CNY – Manufacturing PMi.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: GBP – Manufacturing PMi.\r\nTUESDAY: CAD – GDP.\r\nTUESDAY: NZD – GDT Dairy Auction Prices.\r\nTUESDAY: USD – ISM Manufacturing PMi.\r\nTUESDAY: AUD – GDP.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: GBP – Construction PMi.\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – ADP Non-Farm Employment Change.\r\nWEDNESDAY: AUD – Trade Balance.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: GBP – Services PMI.\r\nTHURSDAY: USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.\r\nTHURSDAY: AUD – Retail Sales.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: USD – Non-Farm Payrolls, Trade Balance and Unemployment Rate.\r\nFRIDAY: CAD – Trade Balance.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>5.1: THE USD MAJORS SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS: </u>\r\n\r\n(In this section I have as usual kept my charts as minimalist as possible. With regards to charting in my opinion less is more!! I hope that they are clear. All readers regardless of level of experience should be able to follow my thoughts from my comments to the levels on the charts with ease)\r\n\r\nMy comments are usually contained on the charts. However, this week my usual charting service is not responding and therefore my comments are below the charts for each currency pair.\r\n\r\nEUR/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.0927\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/brexit-wtf/eurusddaily27022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7346\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7346\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/EURUSDDaily27022016.png\" alt=\"EURUSDDaily27022016\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\nA nasty engulfing daily candle has been posted to end the week. We closed just on trend line support. The next Fibonacci level lower is at 1.0850, the 61.8% retracement. I would say that this is a key level to hold moving forward. A break of this level and we are heading to 1.0500 once again. Remember, we have Mario Draghi on March 10<sup>th</sup>. This meeting takes on even greater importance should this pair come under pressure at that time.\r\n\r\nGBP/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.3866\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/brexit-wtf/gbpusdmonthly27022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7347\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7347\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/GBPUSDMonthly27022016.png\" alt=\"GBPUSDMonthly27022016\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\nWhat can I add that hasn’t been added by umpteen analysts and commentators already? The cable is under real meltdown pressure and frankly using Fibonacci extensions and previous horizontal support levels is the best that I can do. 1.3775 offers a confluence of fibs, it’s too messy to put on this chart. After that we have 1.3660 and 1.3500, and after that to quote Alice Cooper we’re all off to hell on one bastard of a ride!!\r\n\r\nThis pair needs to break above 1.4050 to take the selling pressure off. That level seems a mile away.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.7121\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/brexit-wtf/audusddaily27022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7345\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7345\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/AUDUSDDaily27022016.png\" alt=\"AUDUSDDaily27022016\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\nA nice bearish engulfing candle to end the week. Beware though; there is a great deal of front line Australian data this week, the biggest being the RBA Rate Statement late Monday evening (EST).\r\n\r\nWithout doubt this pair will suffer if commodity prices come under pressure once again and we also note that China PMi data is also out on Monday evening before the RBA announcement.\r\n\r\nThis is a big week for this pair. Support at 0.7000 will be big and if you look at the chart above you will see wicks above the horizontal resistance line at 0.7245 these indicate false breakouts. This is bearish in my eyes.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.6627\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/brexit-wtf/nzdusddaily27022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7348\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7348\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/NZDUSDDaily27022016.png\" alt=\"NZDUSDDaily27022016\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\nLooking forward, the support level of 0.6600 will be big support not for just being a round number but it is also the 38.2% Fibonacci support level. Similar to the AUD/USD, a false breakout above previous good resistance is bearish in my eyes. The Dairy auction prices on Tuesday will be interesting to follow and also the RBA statement will have influence on future RBNZ policy moves as well.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.3510\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/brexit-wtf/usdcaddaily27022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7349\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7349\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCADDaily27022016.png\" alt=\"USDCADDaily27022016\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\nThe 61.8% support at 1.3550 has given way and this pair looks bearish on the daily chart. The USD/CAD is now not as responsive to oil prices as it has been in the past. If oil blasts higher this pair will drop like a lead balloon and the cross rates will go with it.\r\n\r\nFor now, I still feel that the oil relationship will come back sooner rather than later and with a Canadian budget due plus another BOC meeting shortly after (I think), do not be surprised if these two events combined weaken the CAD$.\r\n\r\nFor now I feel bearish the pair, but longer term knowing what I do know about the Canadian economy is that it is under pressure everywhere apart from Toronto and Vancouver and expect a weak CAD moving forward.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF - Weekly Closing Price: 0.9955\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/brexit-wtf/usdchfdaily27022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7350\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7350\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDCHFDaily27022016.png\" alt=\"USDCHFDaily27022016\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\nI like being long this pair. I always feel like I am trading if I am selling the CHF currency, excepting peg removal day.\r\n\r\nShould the EUR/USD continue to move lower, this pair should head higher unless a flight to safety trade takes over in Europe due to all the geopolitical news around. 1.0030 (61.8% Fibonacci) is a key level to pass and recent trend highs of 1.0250 will be difficult to pass unless the EUR/USD takes a nosedive.\r\n\r\nI have an ARMAGEDDON long trade set up below 0.9500. What a wonderful mind I have just in case the wheels fall off the bus!!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY - Weekly Closing Price: 113.96\r\n\r\n<u><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/brexit-wtf/usdjpydaily27022016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7351\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7351\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/USDJPYDaily27022016.png\" alt=\"USDJPYDaily27022016\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a></u>\r\n\r\nI have marked the 38% retracement at 115.00. I believe that is a great area to enter short. If that does not hold, try again at 116.00. Looking at the past few days 115.00 has held and so the risk / reward looks good.\r\n\r\nAlthough not on this chart there is a head and shoulders measured move to about 105.50 available once this pair breaks below 110.80.\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3: CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nA big week for news lies ahead of us.\r\n\r\nObviously, U.S. Non-Farm Employment data on Friday is the big end to the week.\r\n\r\nThere is a great deal of Australian news this week starting with the RBA on Monday evening (2230 EST). This will be a big week down under, as the comments from Glenn Stevens will be examined more closely than usual given recent comments by his sidekick Edwards stating that RBA would be more comfortable with the AUD/USD exchange rate around 0.6500.\r\n\r\nThe cable will be in the news a great deal this week as the political debate over BREXIT or not to BREXIT will gather some steam.\r\n\r\nI should also be watchful over risk sentiment this week. Should the commodity area come under pressure the USD will strengthen once again and before we know it we could be back up at 100.00 again if we see a very bullish and positive NFP number.\r\n\r\nIt is the circle of life FX style, because a bullish NFP and bullish USD will bring back commentary relating to how many damn rate hikes there could be by the FED in 2016! Just when you thought it was safe to step out of the door, all the bloody CNBC and BLOOMBERG contributors spouting off I told you so will come crawling out from under their rocks again…\r\n\r\nBy the way I told you so as well…I am still in the camp of 3 / 4 rate increases this year, I believe that Janet Yellen has at least a 1.0% goal in mind. Holy Mother of God, all these shenanigans over the biggest economy in the world where we are constantly being told everything is so damn brilliant we struggle to get off zirp… go figure. It’s like a GOP debate full of cow, camel and bullsh*t.\r\n\r\nBe careful and ever watchful on oil. The CAD is acting wild like its nickname the “loonie”. Do not worry though, the Canadian politicians who have more holidays than workdays are back in the Ottawa parliament and soon the eagerly awaited budget by new Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will be released. Together with masterly inactivity by Stephen Poloz at the BOC, I predict the USD/CAD at 1.5000+ by the summer, with QE (Quantitative Easing) and negative interest rates also in play.\r\n\r\nBe savvy…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nTake care,\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nDATE: 27<sup>h</sup> February 2016\r\nBLOG REFERENCE: #190 FREE NEWSLETTER\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','BREXIT…WTF','','inherit','closed','closed','','7361-revision-v1','','','2016-02-28 13:10:39','2016-02-28 18:10:39','',7361,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/7361-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(7364,1,'2016-02-29 16:06:08','2016-02-29 21:06:08','','PSPROFITS1 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21:20:04','',2524,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/RADAR-YTDFEB2016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(7368,1,'2016-02-29 16:06:35','2016-02-29 21:06:35','','FLASH1 FEB2016','','inherit','open','closed','','flash1-feb2016','','','2016-02-29 16:18:06','2016-02-29 21:18:06','',2711,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/FLASH1-FEB2016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(7369,1,'2016-02-29 16:06:38','2016-02-29 21:06:38','','FLASH2 FEB2016','','inherit','open','closed','','flash2-feb2016','','','2016-02-29 16:18:17','2016-02-29 21:18:17','',2711,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/FLASH2-FEB2016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(7370,1,'2016-02-29 16:06:40','2016-02-29 21:06:40','','FLASH YTDFEB2016','','inherit','open','closed','','flash-ytdfeb2016','','','2016-02-29 16:18:31','2016-02-29 21:18:31','',2711,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/FLASH-YTDFEB2016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(7371,1,'2016-02-29 16:06:48','2016-02-29 21:06:48','','FUN1 FEB2016','','inherit','open','closed','','fun1-feb2016','','','2016-02-29 16:21:10','2016-02-29 21:21:10','',3106,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/FUN1-FEB2016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(7372,1,'2016-02-29 16:06:52','2016-02-29 21:06:52','','FUN2 FEB2016','','inherit','open','closed','','fun2-feb2016','','','2016-02-29 16:21:19','2016-02-29 21:21:19','',3106,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/FUN2-FEB2016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(7373,1,'2016-02-29 16:06:54','2016-02-29 21:06:54','','FUN YTDFEB2016','','inherit','open','closed','','fun-ytdfeb2016','','','2016-02-29 16:21:55','2016-02-29 21:21:55','',3106,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/FUN-YTDFEB2016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(7374,1,'2016-02-29 16:06:57','2016-02-29 21:06:57','','PART1 FEB2016','','inherit','open','closed','','part1-feb2016','','','2016-02-29 16:23:33','2016-02-29 21:23:33','',6965,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/PART1-FEB2016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(7375,1,'2016-02-29 16:06:59','2016-02-29 21:06:59','','PART2 FEB2016','','inherit','open','closed','','part2-feb2016','','','2016-02-29 16:23:43','2016-02-29 21:23:43','',6965,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/PART2-FEB2016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(7376,1,'2016-02-29 16:07:03','2016-02-29 21:07:03','','PARTYTDFEB2016','','inherit','open','closed','','partytdfeb2016','','','2016-02-29 16:23:58','2016-02-29 21:23:58','',6965,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/PARTYTDFEB2016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(7377,1,'2016-02-29 16:07:06','2016-02-29 21:07:06','','P&L% FEB2016','','inherit','open','closed','','pl-feb2016','','','2016-02-29 16:26:35','2016-02-29 21:26:35','',5002,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/PL-FEB2016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(7378,1,'2016-02-29 16:07:08','2016-02-29 21:07:08','','COST-INCOME FEB2016','','inherit','open','closed','','cost-income-feb2016','','','2016-02-29 16:27:34','2016-02-29 21:27:34','',5006,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/COST-INCOME-FEB2016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(7379,1,'2016-02-29 16:14:33','2016-02-29 21:14:33','','PIP COMPARISON 2016v2015','','inherit','open','closed','','pip-comparison-2016v2015','','','2016-02-29 16:28:40','2016-02-29 21:28:40','',6869,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/PIP-COMPARISON-2016v2015.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(7387,1,'2016-02-29 16:27:41','2016-02-29 21:27:41','<section class=\"one-sixth first\">\r\n<h4>Completed Trades Risk/Reward Analysis Archives:</h4>\r\n</section><section class=\"five-sixths\">\r\n<div class=\"one-half first\">\r\n<h2>This Year\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/cost-income-feb2016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7378\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7378\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/COST-INCOME-FEB2016.png\" alt=\"COST-INCOME FEB2016\" width=\"419\" height=\"533\" /></a></h2>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"one-half\">\r\n<h2>PREVIOUS YEARS\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/completed-trades-risk-reward-analysis/ps-risk-reward-31122015/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7054\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7054\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/PS-RISK-REWARD-31122015.png\" alt=\"PS RISK REWARD 31122015\" width=\"420\" height=\"518\" /></a>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/PREM-SERV-RISK-REWARD-31122014-YTD.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-4964\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/PREM-SERV-RISK-REWARD-31122014-YTD.png\" alt=\"PREM SERV RISK-REWARD 31122014 YTD\" width=\"436\" height=\"543\" /></a></h2>\r\n</div>\r\n</section>','COMPLETED TRADES RISK / REWARD ANALYSIS','','inherit','closed','closed','','5006-revision-v1','','','2016-02-29 16:27:41','2016-02-29 21:27:41','',5006,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/5006-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(7406,1,'2016-03-04 17:04:56','2016-03-04 22:04:56','','USDCHF DAILY 05032016','','inherit','open','closed','','usdchf-daily-05032016','','','2016-03-05 12:30:29','2016-03-05 17:30:29','',7408,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDCHF-DAILY-05032016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(7407,1,'2016-03-04 17:04:59','2016-03-04 22:04:59','','USDJPY DAILY 05032016','','inherit','open','closed','','usdjpy-daily-05032016','','','2016-03-05 12:30:44','2016-03-05 17:30:44','',7408,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDJPY-DAILY-05032016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(7408,1,'2016-03-05 12:33:02','2016-03-05 17:33:02','<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li><strong> INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nAfter my last blog, which followed a disastrous week of trading for many reasons I needed a week to consolidate.\r\n\r\nWell, here we are at the end of the week and… I have and I haven’t consolidated. Yes, I have banked some pips but I have also banked more pip losses as well, plus I am currently holding trades that are under water. The trades being held are longer-term these trades that fit with my fundamental views of the longer-term market.\r\n\r\nA week in Forex is a long time and this time next week, all the trades I am holding could reverse direction nicely and I would be well set up. I had these trades going into NFP last Friday, I think I did about an 11 page tweet to subscribers on my thoughts and this, actually followed a detailed email from the previous day with my overview from a macro level on the trades that I was looking to hold. It was touch and go to either close trades and take pain or hold and keep alive in line with convictions. There were two trades that were specifically causing me concern. I initially kept them both open but chose to cover one as the trading day developed. I am having a poor run at the moment and I need to get my mojo back.\r\n\r\nLeaping forward…\r\n\r\nLast week, I had a few comments about the ice storm that cut power in my area and affected over 260,000 homes in and around Montreal (on and off the island). Not that I want to turn this blog into a meteorological report each week, but I could not let it pass to inform readers that if Met. Canada is correct (they are about as good as Stephen Poloz at the BOC most times), from early this week we are returning to positive temperatures not just during the day but also overnight. This means that the snow melts, there is no more shoveling of snow and BBQ times are back.\r\n\r\nFinally, in this section, just to remind you; you could be the next winner of a free PREMIUM SERVICE (SILVER) subscription; if you subscribe to receive this free blog via my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nYou are automatically entered into a free monthly draw, once you’ve subscribed. Each month during 2016 one lucky blog subscriber will receive a free subscription to the PREMIUM SERVICE (SILVER).\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>2.1: WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber, fee based trade set-up option for Forex traders regardless of experience or background. I provide traders suggested trades, and some market commentary related to open trades or factors within the overall market that have my interest.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and the various trade styles plus how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nAdditional information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE you will require a PayPal account.\r\n\r\n<u>2.2: PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE THIS MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\nNET PIPS THIS MONTH SO FAR:            -29\r\nNET PIPS THIS YEAR SO FAR:                -161\r\n\r\nNET PIPS 2015        +10,686\r\nNET PIPS 2014        +11,209\r\n\r\n(I trade basically for 10 months a year. I do not trade from mid July through early September or mid December through early January).\r\n\r\nIf you want more data or detail about the performance and the tabs on my website landing page do not answer your questions, contact me directly and I will supply the trading data you require. There are NO secrets. There are many, many spreadsheets detailing performance trade by trade and by trade and by trading style, way too many to place in this blog. If you are interested in the PREMIUM SERVICE and want more information, all you have to do is ask.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>3.1: LAST WEEK’S NEWS – MY THOUGHTS:</strong>\r\n\r\nAs usual, when you look back on a Non-Farm Payroll week, all of the data that was prior to NFP seems to pale into insignificance as NFP at the end of the week was so dominant.\r\n\r\nThe one thing apart from the economic data that stuck out for me was the price action in gold. It broke into new highs for the year, it took with it Copper and Silver and these precious metals supported the moves higher with the AUD and NZD currencies. From a currency perspective, it will be interesting to see how the RBA and RBNZ react to these moves with the AUD/USD above 0.7350 and NZD/USD above 0.6750. Bear in mind we heard from Mr. Edwards from the RBA recently stating that the RBA felt that fair value was around 0.6500. With regards to the RNBZ, we will hear straight from horses’ mouth on Wednesday this week when “Spinner” Wheeler (RBNZ governor) has an interest rate decision and monetary policy statement.\r\n\r\nWhy was gold so strong?\r\n\r\nI can only think that because of central banks having negative interest rates, institutions are maybe looking at gold instead. It can’t be because they see it as a hedge against inflation… I was laughing when I wrote that last line. It’s above my pay grade but negative interest rates are the only thing that I can think of.\r\n\r\nBack to NFP…\r\n\r\nBlow out numbers once again; except for the fact that hourly earnings are not rising, in fact, they pulled back to a negative number.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">242,000 New Jobs\r\n<em>(Previous reading was revised to 182,000)</em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">4.9% Unemployment Rate\r\n(<em>Previous reading was 4.9%)</em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Average Hourly earnings – February -0.1% and yearly 2.2%\r\n<em>(The previous average hourly earnings were 0.5% and 2.5%)</em></p>\r\nAs I said these were good numbers except for the hourly earnings and show that the U.S. economy is in good shape from a job creation perspective.\r\n\r\nThere was a huge amount of Australian data last week, for the most part very positive which along with precious metals (discussed earlier) has kept the AUD currency well bid. However, as mentioned, this brings with it its own problems for the RBA as they try to balance the very diverse economy, eastern versus western Australia. Who would want to be a central bank governor?\r\n\r\nThe UK had a string of PMi data, all poor, yet the GBP rallied on crap data…excellent… go figure!!\r\n\r\nThe BREXIT discussion rambled on but as more data was released about the consequences plus the names of who is pro and who is not pro BREXIT some stability fell into place<strong>. </strong>I will guarantee you one thing. No matter how heated the debate gets in the coming weeks and months in the UK, there will be no references to hair, spray tans, sizes of hands, wetting ones trousers, sweating, choking, con artists, liars, losers, fakes, phony’s, scams or penis sizes when the TV debates commence.\r\n\r\nPoliticians around this planet may in the main, be self-serving, protectionist vote grabbers. But there is just NOTHING to compare to the American republican parties, dysfunctional gang of non-performing immature, non-presidential numpties, who are nothing better than a group of 6-7 years school kids.\r\n\r\nThe circus, reality TV show that it is, is an embarrassment to democracy and quite frankly, is it any wonder that so many people are apathetic to politics and should they decide to vote it would probably be as a protest vote. In my opinion, the voters do not win in the long term. The only winners are the TV stations via ratings and they simply do not boldly question or highlight the fact that this behavior is unacceptable. As for the Republican Party establishment, they are presiding over an implosion.\r\n\r\nI only mention this in the blog because we are going to see huge uncertainty in the U.S. market moving forward. The circus might amuse a little with the antics on the TV screen at the moment, but there really is a serious side to consider.\r\n\r\nMoving on and finally….\r\n\r\nMario Draghi dropped a huge hint during last week (Tuesday) that the kitchen sink was about to be thrown at the market and we shall see exactly how big the sink is this Thursday at the ECB Press Conference. I am covering this in the next section.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>3.2: WHAT’S ON MY MIND:</strong>\r\n\r\nCENTRAL BANKS TAKE CENTRE STAGE THIS WEEK…BOC, RBNZ and ECB\r\n\r\nHappy days are here again…\r\n\r\nThis week we have the BOC, RBNZ and ECB front and centre. If I were a stand up comic, there is so much material here based around what we will be told as being the central bank view on all things local and worldwide. I will try to keep this light with some facts to give an overview of how I see things.\r\n\r\n<u>BOC: Stephen Poloz (Governor) – Wednesday 9<sup>th</sup> March:</u>\r\n\r\nI think my views are well documented about the Canadian economy and what I think that the BOC will do / has to do moving forward.\r\n\r\nLet me do a quick recap; for the past year the CAD currency has for the most part been a proxy for the price of WTi (oil). Many, mainly Canadian government officials, see this as rather unfair as the Canadian economy is much more than just the Alberta sands. However, it is what it is.\r\n\r\nLast year there was a Canadian general election. Long time Prime Minister, Stephen Harper was ousted in favour of younger go-getter Justin Trudeau promising to spend, spend, spend on infrastructure, legalize marijuana and at the same time stick two fingers high up into the air with regards to balancing the budget.\r\n\r\nStephen Poloz last cut interest rates on 15<sup>th</sup> July 2015 by 0.25%. Since that date he has been sitting back and saying that the effects of the rate cut have yet to be seen to its full extent in the Canadian economy. He has also resisted further action due to a government election and budget from the newly elected Liberal Party under Justin Trudeau. Time and reasons for non-action are running out.\r\n\r\nThe initial budget from Justin Trudeau is due March 22<sup>nd</sup> and Trudeau has already stated that there will be no “big ticket” bazookas. Canadian GDP is like most G7 countries, falling backwards instead of moving upwards.\r\n\r\nSoon it will be over to the BOC and Poloz to take action.\r\n\r\nMy thoughts are:\r\n\r\nThe BOC will probably stand still this month and leave rates unchanged at 0.50% in view of the Trudeau’s budget. This is further supported by the fact that there is only a rate announcement this week, no press conference. (On the basis that I have been calling for a rate cut the last two meetings and got it wrong back to back, get ready for a third error and be ready to trade long the USD/CAD!!).\r\n\r\nWhilst I think in Canada there will be rate cuts in the near future to help stimulate the economy, these will take place after the Prime Minister’s Budget. I also think that negative interest rates and QE (Quantitative Easing) will also be on the cards.\r\n\r\nThe psyche and culture of Canadians is in my opinion, laid-back, and sometimes head in the sand to ignore reality at times, the latter definitely applies to Stephen Poloz as far as I am concerned.\r\n\r\n<u>RBNZ: Graeme Wheeler (Governor) – Wednesday 9<sup>th</sup> March:</u>\r\n\r\nOver the past couple of years it has been easier to win on the 649 lottery in Canada, than predict the RBNZ. They say one thing and their actions say the opposite lots of times.\r\n\r\nAt the moment the NZD/USD is attempting to break out above 0.6750 / 0.6800. One would not have thought that Wheeler and his table of accountants would be cracking open the champagne on this news.\r\n\r\nReading the comments over the past few months, the RBNZ appears to be relying heavily on the NZD depreciating to help bring inflation back to their 2% target. Well, Graeme me old pal, hows that working out for ya! – not very well at the moment I would say.\r\n\r\nIn addition, we have the PBOC in easing mode, the BOJ in easing mode and Mario Draghi at the ECB about to throw his mother-in-law, Granny and the kitchen sink at the market to try to fight DEFLATION and get some growth into the EUROZONE.\r\n\r\nJust to keep a level playing field the RBNZ needs to ease… will they?\r\n\r\nThe RBA stood firm last week, which of course doesn’t mean that the RBNZ has to do the same. But a 0.50% cut to 2.0% would send a clear and unambiguous message that the RBNZ means business. It may need such a bold statement of intent instead of the usual pussyfooting about game that the RBNZ usual play. We should however, be ready for just more jawboning.\r\n\r\nWhatever the RBNZ does, if it\'s a rate cut they have to be firm with the commentary as well. In the past they have been fecking useless doing this. My dog Ozzy is very single minded, if he could talk he would have no problem nailing this.\r\n\r\n<u>ECB: Mario Draghi (President) – Thursday 10<sup>th</sup> March:</u>\r\n\r\nThe prime news event this week is the ECB Press Conference with Mario Draghi. God love him, he has Merkel, Wiedmann and Schaeuble to contend with. I am sure these three amigos in Draghi’s eyes are like annoying zits that just keep coming back every time you think that you’ve squeezed the heebie-jesus out of them.\r\n\r\nMario Draghi is front and centre. He has been firing bullets at the EUROZONE problems every since the “whatever it takes” speech in London.\r\n\r\nWhat does he have left?\r\n\r\nI am off the Jack Daniels at the moment, so my creative thinking cap was diminished slightly putting some thoughts into this.\r\n\r\nLast week, Draghi stated that the inflation trends for the EUROZONE were still weak; this is like the nod in central banker language that as traders we should get ready and be prepared.\r\n\r\nHere is my list that I think he will look at and he may add none of these, some of these or all of these, only time will tell.\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>Increasing the negative interest rate at the ECB higher from the existing 0.30%. As far as I can see the feeling is that by the year-end the ECB target is 0.50%. Draghi may go the whole way now, or add another 0.10% making the new overnight rate -0.40%</li>\r\n	<li>Increasing / expanding the PSPP (Public Sector Purchase Programme) known more widely as QE (Quantitative Easing). He has a few ways to do this, either simply increasing the current scheme purchases each month from the current €60 billion a month at the moment to a higher volume. The problem is he will run out of assets to buy sooner, in fact as far as I can see quite quickly. Alternatively, he could broaden the scope of purchasing to include say, “Non performing loans” and riskier assets and there are plenty of them languishing in France, Spain, Italy, Greece and Portugal and at the same time increase the quantity of purchases each month (The double whammy approach).</li>\r\n	<li>I have read that he may introduce a new and updated version of the LTRO to target achieving greater liquidity. Although, I am not entirely certain what this would be and how this would work.</li>\r\n	<li>He could also announce a time extension to the overall programme, maybe another full year of support. This could be met with groans from the German contingent in the ECB governing council but Draghi needs a real full-on bazooka.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nWhatever he does, he needs it to be jaw dropping and once and for all send a clear message. The EUROZONE is very close to dropping into recession and with BREXIT fears in the air he has to act strongly with conviction as far as I am concerned. Failure is not an option as the consequences are not worth thinking about.\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>Finally, he could also directly intervene in the currency markets. Sounds a bit out there but wow, would that make a statement… direct intervention. That would give Merkel, Schaeuble and Wiedmann nose bleeds at the mere mention!! Would you not love to watch them pour out their breakfast cornflakes as Mario Draghi announced direct money market currency intervention?</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nWe shall wait and see what he does and it will be eagerly awaited, of that there is no doubt.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) EXCLUSIVE CONTENT:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(This area contains exclusive content for PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) subscribers)\r\n\r\n<strong>4.1: THE PREMIUM SERVICE – TRADING REVIEW: </strong>\r\n\r\n(This section can cover a multitude of points / facts etc. Basically it’s a 360-degree review, which I think should interest subscribers):\r\n\r\nWhat a pig of a run I am having. Almost every trade I select goes arseways; it is both very frustrating and annoying. It will come good and it will be stronger than before.\r\n\r\nI remain as positive as one can be and still look forward to trading but I am in a bad run of form, which affects every trader from time to time.\r\n\r\nI tried to let trades run in line with my TRADE PLAN but frankly it is just not that type of market; I have annoyingly let profits go. I have been top ticked a couple of times and not exited trades trying to let them run, all of which have backfired. I could have had another 100+ pips on the board plus more $$$. These sound like excuses and maybe they are but they are also the facts.\r\n\r\nThis is a “scalpers” market place for most of the time at the moment and I need to react and adapt better and just get on with it, frustrating, as it is not letting trades run to my full objective.\r\n\r\nI have a formula that has worked for over 3 years and I have had a period like this before. Rest assured, I am trading my TRADE PLAN, which does work!\r\n\r\nFor example straight after NFP, I always remain light on trading. At the close, looking at charts my follow through and pullback trades after NFP has given me 13 (thirteen) trades to load up and enter Sunday evening into Monday morning. The NFP move and my TRADE PLAN guidelines have identified this number of trades on the closing weekly prices. This is probably the largest number ever.\r\n\r\nI will post these but to give me more flexibility I will use smaller position sizes and simply add more trades if the initial trades gain traction.\r\n\r\nI have set-ups with: - USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, EUR/CHF, NZD/CAD, NZD/CHF, AUD/CHF, EUR/GBP, EUR/AUD, USD/CAD, GBP/NZD, NZD/USD, AUD/USD and USD/CHF.\r\n\r\nBy the time I categorize the set-ups there could potentially be 16/17 LIMIT ORDER trades overall. Get ready.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>4.2: TRADE STYLE DEFINITIONS:</strong>\r\n\r\n<u>4.2.1: RADAR TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\nThese are pre-meditated entry trades set from either Fibonacci levels, pivot points or previous support and resistance based off a combination of horizontal or trend line support or resistance.\r\nThe goal is always if possible to swing trade these trades by establishing a position that if market conditions apply allow the trade to gather traction and develop into a longer-term position trade.\r\n\r\n<u>4.2.2: FLASH TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\nMainly simply, opportunist trades in LIVE market conditions. These trades are either based off a pullback strategy, a GIMME10 pips strategy, or off momentum in a trading pair at the time of entry.\r\nThe goal is to either take 10-30 pips or see a sufficient move to place a protective stop in place to see if a swing trade develops.\r\nSome FLASH TRADES may form part of an overall trading plan with a given currency pair, but the entry could not be made via a LIMIT ORDER.\r\n\r\nIn addition in 2016, some FLASH TRADES can be of a longer duration, with very specific goals.\r\n\r\n<u>4.2.3: FUNDAMENTAL TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\nThese will be trades based off my TRADING PLAN goals for trades in line with my longer-term market views.\r\nTrades in this area will use in addition Fibonacci levels, Pivot points, trend lines and prior support and resistance levels, weekly and monthly ATR’s (Average True Ranges) when setting Stop Loss levels.\r\nThese trades are hopefully of a longer-term nature. They will be initially “single-lot” sized trades due to the wider stop placements that will be applied.\r\n\r\n<u>4.2.4: PART-TIME TRADER TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\nThese trade set-ups are intended to have a longer-term trading perspective. They are not only targeted at traders who consider they are part-time Forex traders; obviously, all traders can of course take advantage. (My definition of a part-time trader is one who is only able to look at their computer screens, or, mobile devices to check trades two or three times a day).\r\n\r\nA key feature of these set-ups is that they have much wider than normal stops to allow for market swings and volatility. The trades therefore have a smaller position size to allow for the swings in volatility, but multiple trades in the same currency pair are added when the core trade has gained traction in the desired direction.\r\n\r\nMy goal is to have multiple trades open/live at any one time and maybe 2/3 open/live trades with the same currency pair. I will of course suggest to take some profits along the way, but hopefully at the same time letting trades run as far as possible.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>4.3: THE PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE SPREADSHEETS (INCLUDING LIVE &amp; LIMIT ORDER TRADES):</strong>\r\n\r\nFull and complete details surrounding these trades can be found inside the PREMIUM SERVICE on my website. These can be found on the spreadsheets on the website.\r\n\r\n<strong>4.4: REVIEW OF OPEN LIMIT ORDER TRADES NOT YET TRIGGERED:</strong>\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.1: RADAR LIMIT ORDER TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\nRT656 – EUR/USD:\r\nSet up after NFP calmed down. Looking to short at resistance looking for a move lower into trend lows. Looking for ECB action to support this trade.\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.2: FUNDAMENTAL LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n</u>\r\n\r\nFUN273 – EUR/USD:\r\nThis trade is at extremes to pick up a short at almost Armageddon levels.\r\n\r\nFUN274 – USD/CHF:\r\nOpposite to the EUR/USD (FUN273).\r\n\r\nFUN277 – AUD/NZD:\r\nA further set-up for longer-term view.\r\n\r\nFUN278 – GBP/NZD:\r\nAnother set-up to add to the longer-term trade; this one is set to trigger above trend line resistance.\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.3: PART-TIME TRADER LIMIT ORDER TRADES: </u>\r\n\r\nPART041 – USD/CHF:\r\nOpposite to the EUR/USD (PART042).\r\n\r\nPART042 – EUR/USD:\r\nThis trade is at extremes to pick up a short at almost Armageddon levels.\r\n\r\nPART044 – AUD/NZD:\r\nA further set-up for longer-term view.\r\n\r\nPART045 – GBP/NZD:\r\nAnother set-up to add to the longer-term trade; this one is set to trigger above trend line resistance\r\n\r\nPART048 – GBP/CHF:\r\nThis is almost like one of my ARMEGEDDON TRADES; I may be too greedy with the entrance level. This trade will be reviewed early this coming week with regards to its continuing validity.\r\n\r\nPART054 – USD/CAD:\r\nLonger-term my views are bullish this pair with a mixture of central bank and fiscal changes. I am looking to pick this pair up long at trend line support and the 76.4% Fibonacci level.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n	<li><strong> COMING UP THIS WEEK:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5.1: THIS WEEK’S FOREX NEWS THAT INTERESTS ME:</u>\r\n\r\n(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market other than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to <a href=\"http://www.forexfactory.com\">www.forexfactory.com</a> and <a href=\"http://www.tradingeconomics.com\">www.tradingeconomics.com</a> for a more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).\r\nSUNDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: CNY – Trade Balance.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: CAD – BOC Interest Rate Announcement.\r\nWEDNESDAY: NZD – RBNZ Interest Rate Statement &amp; Press Conference.\r\nWEDNESDAY: CNY - CPi.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: ECB – Press Conference and Rate Statement.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: CAD – Employment Data.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>5.1: THE USD MAJORS SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS: </u>\r\n\r\n(In this section I have as usual kept my charts as minimalist as possible. With regards to charting in my opinion less is more!! I hope that they are clear. All readers regardless of level of experience should be able to follow my thoughts from my comments to the levels on the charts with ease)\r\n\r\nMy comments are contained on the charts. If you have difficulty getting them to expand please let me know. Sometimes word press is difficult.\r\n\r\nEUR/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.1004\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/eurusd-daily-05032016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7402\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7402\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/EURUSD-DAILY-05032016-1024x509.png\" alt=\"EURUSD DAILY 05032016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"509\" /></a>\r\n\r\nGBP/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.4227\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/gbpusd-daily-05032016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7403\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7403\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/GBPUSD-DAILY-05032016-1024x509.png\" alt=\"GBPUSD DAILY 05032016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"509\" /></a>\r\n\r\nAUD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.7436\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/audusd-daily-05032016-3/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7401\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7401\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/AUDUSD-DAILY-05032016-2-1024x509.png\" alt=\"AUDUSD DAILY 05032016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"509\" /></a>\r\n\r\nNZD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.6818\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/nzdusd-daily-05032016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7404\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7404\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/NZDUSD-DAILY-05032016-1024x509.png\" alt=\"NZDUSD DAILY 05032016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"509\" /></a>\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.3312\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/usdcad-daily-05032016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7405\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7405\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDCAD-DAILY-05032016-1024x509.png\" alt=\"USDCAD DAILY 05032016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"509\" /></a>\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF - Weekly Closing Price: 0.9929\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/usdchf-daily-05032016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7406\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7406\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDCHF-DAILY-05032016-1024x509.png\" alt=\"USDCHF DAILY 05032016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"509\" /></a>\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY - Weekly Closing Price: 113.77\r\n\r\n<u><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/usdjpy-daily-05032016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7407\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7407\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDJPY-DAILY-05032016-1024x509.png\" alt=\"USDJPY DAILY 05032016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"509\" /></a></u>\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3: CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nAnother big week for news lies ahead of us.\r\n\r\nWe have three central banks with rate announcements BOC, RBNZ and ECB, and two of them the RBNZ and ECB have press conferences.\r\n\r\nOf late the effectiveness of central bank intervention has been called into question, in particular with the BOJ introduction of negative interest rates. It could be a very choppy week once again.\r\n\r\nThe market has been guilty of late of not really providing an effective follow through. It should be interesting to see on Sunday evening / Monday morning if the reaction to the NFP data follows on into the Asian and European sessions.\r\n\r\nBe savvy…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nTake care,\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>','CENTRAL BANKS TAKE CENTRE STAGE THIS WEEK…BOC, RBNZ and ECB','','publish','open','closed','','central-banks-take-centre-stage-weekboc-rbnz-ecb','','','2016-03-05 12:33:02','2016-03-05 17:33:02','',0,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?post_type=member_posts&#038;p=7408',0,'member_posts','',0),(7409,1,'2016-03-05 12:31:13','2016-03-05 17:31:13','<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li><strong> INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nAfter my last blog, which followed a disastrous week of trading for many reasons I needed a week to consolidate.\r\n\r\nWell, here we are at the end of the week and… I have and I haven’t consolidated. Yes, I have banked some pips but I have also banked more pip losses as well, plus I am currently holding trades that are under water. The trades being held are longer-term these trades that fit with my fundamental views of the longer-term market.\r\n\r\nA week in Forex is a long time and this time next week, all the trades I am holding could reverse direction nicely and I would be well set up. I had these trades going into NFP last Friday, I think I did about an 11 page tweet to subscribers on my thoughts and this, actually followed a detailed email from the previous day with my overview from a macro level on the trades that I was looking to hold. It was touch and go to either close trades and take pain or hold and keep alive in line with convictions. There were two trades that were specifically causing me concern. I initially kept them both open but chose to cover one as the trading day developed. I am having a poor run at the moment and I need to get my mojo back.\r\n\r\nLeaping forward…\r\n\r\nLast week, I had a few comments about the ice storm that cut power in my area and affected over 260,000 homes in and around Montreal (on and off the island). Not that I want to turn this blog into a meteorological report each week, but I could not let it pass to inform readers that if Met. Canada is correct (they are about as good as Stephen Poloz at the BOC most times), from early this week we are returning to positive temperatures not just during the day but also overnight. This means that the snow melts, there is no more shoveling of snow and BBQ times are back.\r\n\r\nFinally, in this section, just to remind you; you could be the next winner of a free PREMIUM SERVICE (SILVER) subscription; if you subscribe to receive this free blog via my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nYou are automatically entered into a free monthly draw, once you’ve subscribed. Each month during 2016 one lucky blog subscriber will receive a free subscription to the PREMIUM SERVICE (SILVER).\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>2.1: WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber, fee based trade set-up option for Forex traders regardless of experience or background. I provide traders suggested trades, and some market commentary related to open trades or factors within the overall market that have my interest.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and the various trade styles plus how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nAdditional information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE you will require a PayPal account.\r\n\r\n<u>2.2: PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE THIS MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\nNET PIPS THIS MONTH SO FAR:            -29\r\nNET PIPS THIS YEAR SO FAR:                -161\r\n\r\nNET PIPS 2015        +10,686\r\nNET PIPS 2014        +11,209\r\n\r\n(I trade basically for 10 months a year. I do not trade from mid July through early September or mid December through early January).\r\n\r\nIf you want more data or detail about the performance and the tabs on my website landing page do not answer your questions, contact me directly and I will supply the trading data you require. There are NO secrets. There are many, many spreadsheets detailing performance trade by trade and by trade and by trading style, way too many to place in this blog. If you are interested in the PREMIUM SERVICE and want more information, all you have to do is ask.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>3.1: LAST WEEK’S NEWS – MY THOUGHTS:</strong>\r\n\r\nAs usual, when you look back on a Non-Farm Payroll week, all of the data that was prior to NFP seems to pale into insignificance as NFP at the end of the week was so dominant.\r\n\r\nThe one thing apart from the economic data that stuck out for me was the price action in gold. It broke into new highs for the year, it took with it Copper and Silver and these precious metals supported the moves higher with the AUD and NZD currencies. From a currency perspective, it will be interesting to see how the RBA and RBNZ react to these moves with the AUD/USD above 0.7350 and NZD/USD above 0.6750. Bear in mind we heard from Mr. Edwards from the RBA recently stating that the RBA felt that fair value was around 0.6500. With regards to the RNBZ, we will hear straight from horses’ mouth on Wednesday this week when “Spinner” Wheeler (RBNZ governor) has an interest rate decision and monetary policy statement.\r\n\r\nWhy was gold so strong?\r\n\r\nI can only think that because of central banks having negative interest rates, institutions are maybe looking at gold instead. It can’t be because they see it as a hedge against inflation… I was laughing when I wrote that last line. It’s above my pay grade but negative interest rates are the only thing that I can think of.\r\n\r\nBack to NFP…\r\n\r\nBlow out numbers once again; except for the fact that hourly earnings are not rising, in fact, they pulled back to a negative number.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">242,000 New Jobs\r\n<em>(Previous reading was revised to 182,000)</em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">4.9% Unemployment Rate\r\n(<em>Previous reading was 4.9%)</em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Average Hourly earnings – February -0.1% and yearly 2.2%\r\n<em>(The previous average hourly earnings were 0.5% and 2.5%)</em></p>\r\nAs I said these were good numbers except for the hourly earnings and show that the U.S. economy is in good shape from a job creation perspective.\r\n\r\nThere was a huge amount of Australian data last week, for the most part very positive which along with precious metals (discussed earlier) has kept the AUD currency well bid. However, as mentioned, this brings with it its own problems for the RBA as they try to balance the very diverse economy, eastern versus western Australia. Who would want to be a central bank governor?\r\n\r\nThe UK had a string of PMi data, all poor, yet the GBP rallied on crap data…excellent… go figure!!\r\n\r\nThe BREXIT discussion rambled on but as more data was released about the consequences plus the names of who is pro and who is not pro BREXIT some stability fell into place<strong>. </strong>I will guarantee you one thing. No matter how heated the debate gets in the coming weeks and months in the UK, there will be no references to hair, spray tans, sizes of hands, wetting ones trousers, sweating, choking, con artists, liars, losers, fakes, phony’s, scams or penis sizes when the TV debates commence.\r\n\r\nPoliticians around this planet may in the main, be self-serving, protectionist vote grabbers. But there is just NOTHING to compare to the American republican parties, dysfunctional gang of non-performing immature, non-presidential numpties, who are nothing better than a group of 6-7 years school kids.\r\n\r\nThe circus, reality TV show that it is, is an embarrassment to democracy and quite frankly, is it any wonder that so many people are apathetic to politics and should they decide to vote it would probably be as a protest vote. In my opinion, the voters do not win in the long term. The only winners are the TV stations via ratings and they simply do not boldly question or highlight the fact that this behavior is unacceptable. As for the Republican Party establishment, they are presiding over an implosion.\r\n\r\nI only mention this in the blog because we are going to see huge uncertainty in the U.S. market moving forward. The circus might amuse a little with the antics on the TV screen at the moment, but there really is a serious side to consider.\r\n\r\nMoving on and finally….\r\n\r\nMario Draghi dropped a huge hint during last week (Tuesday) that the kitchen sink was about to be thrown at the market and we shall see exactly how big the sink is this Thursday at the ECB Press Conference. I am covering this in the next section.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>3.2: WHAT’S ON MY MIND:</strong>\r\n\r\nCENTRAL BANKS TAKE CENTRE STAGE THIS WEEK…BOC, RBNZ and ECB\r\n\r\nHappy days are here again…\r\n\r\nThis week we have the BOC, RBNZ and ECB front and centre. If I were a stand up comic, there is so much material here based around what we will be told as being the central bank view on all things local and worldwide. I will try to keep this light with some facts to give an overview of how I see things.\r\n\r\n<u>BOC: Stephen Poloz (Governor) – Wednesday 9<sup>th</sup> March:</u>\r\n\r\nI think my views are well documented about the Canadian economy and what I think that the BOC will do / has to do moving forward.\r\n\r\nLet me do a quick recap; for the past year the CAD currency has for the most part been a proxy for the price of WTi (oil). Many, mainly Canadian government officials, see this as rather unfair as the Canadian economy is much more than just the Alberta sands. However, it is what it is.\r\n\r\nLast year there was a Canadian general election. Long time Prime Minister, Stephen Harper was ousted in favour of younger go-getter Justin Trudeau promising to spend, spend, spend on infrastructure, legalize marijuana and at the same time stick two fingers high up into the air with regards to balancing the budget.\r\n\r\nStephen Poloz last cut interest rates on 15<sup>th</sup> July 2015 by 0.25%. Since that date he has been sitting back and saying that the effects of the rate cut have yet to be seen to its full extent in the Canadian economy. He has also resisted further action due to a government election and budget from the newly elected Liberal Party under Justin Trudeau. Time and reasons for non-action are running out.\r\n\r\nThe initial budget from Justin Trudeau is due March 22<sup>nd</sup> and Trudeau has already stated that there will be no “big ticket” bazookas. Canadian GDP is like most G7 countries, falling backwards instead of moving upwards.\r\n\r\nSoon it will be over to the BOC and Poloz to take action.\r\n\r\nMy thoughts are:\r\n\r\nThe BOC will probably stand still this month and leave rates unchanged at 0.50% in view of the Trudeau’s budget. This is further supported by the fact that there is only a rate announcement this week, no press conference. (On the basis that I have been calling for a rate cut the last two meetings and got it wrong back to back, get ready for a third error and be ready to trade long the USD/CAD!!).\r\n\r\nWhilst I think in Canada there will be rate cuts in the near future to help stimulate the economy, these will take place after the Prime Minister’s Budget. I also think that negative interest rates and QE (Quantitative Easing) will also be on the cards.\r\n\r\nThe psyche and culture of Canadians is in my opinion, laid-back, and sometimes head in the sand to ignore reality at times, the latter definitely applies to Stephen Poloz as far as I am concerned.\r\n\r\n<u>RBNZ: Graeme Wheeler (Governor) – Wednesday 9<sup>th</sup> March:</u>\r\n\r\nOver the past couple of years it has been easier to win on the 649 lottery in Canada, than predict the RBNZ. They say one thing and their actions say the opposite lots of times.\r\n\r\nAt the moment the NZD/USD is attempting to break out above 0.6750 / 0.6800. One would not have thought that Wheeler and his table of accountants would be cracking open the champagne on this news.\r\n\r\nReading the comments over the past few months, the RBNZ appears to be relying heavily on the NZD depreciating to help bring inflation back to their 2% target. Well, Graeme me old pal, hows that working out for ya! – not very well at the moment I would say.\r\n\r\nIn addition, we have the PBOC in easing mode, the BOJ in easing mode and Mario Draghi at the ECB about to throw his mother-in-law, Granny and the kitchen sink at the market to try to fight DEFLATION and get some growth into the EUROZONE.\r\n\r\nJust to keep a level playing field the RBNZ needs to ease… will they?\r\n\r\nThe RBA stood firm last week, which of course doesn’t mean that the RBNZ has to do the same. But a 0.50% cut to 2.0% would send a clear and unambiguous message that the RBNZ means business. It may need such a bold statement of intent instead of the usual pussyfooting about game that the RBNZ usual play. We should however, be ready for just more jawboning.\r\n\r\nWhatever the RBNZ does, if it\'s a rate cut they have to be firm with the commentary as well. In the past they have been fecking useless doing this. My dog Ozzy is very single minded, if he could talk he would have no problem nailing this.\r\n\r\n<u>ECB: Mario Draghi (President) – Thursday 10<sup>th</sup> March:</u>\r\n\r\nThe prime news event this week is the ECB Press Conference with Mario Draghi. God love him, he has Merkel, Wiedmann and Schaeuble to contend with. I am sure these three amigos in Draghi’s eyes are like annoying zits that just keep coming back every time you think that you’ve squeezed the heebie-jesus out of them.\r\n\r\nMario Draghi is front and centre. He has been firing bullets at the EUROZONE problems every since the “whatever it takes” speech in London.\r\n\r\nWhat does he have left?\r\n\r\nI am off the Jack Daniels at the moment, so my creative thinking cap was diminished slightly putting some thoughts into this.\r\n\r\nLast week, Draghi stated that the inflation trends for the EUROZONE were still weak; this is like the nod in central banker language that as traders we should get ready and be prepared.\r\n\r\nHere is my list that I think he will look at and he may add none of these, some of these or all of these, only time will tell.\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>Increasing the negative interest rate at the ECB higher from the existing 0.30%. As far as I can see the feeling is that by the year-end the ECB target is 0.50%. Draghi may go the whole way now, or add another 0.10% making the new overnight rate -0.40%</li>\r\n	<li>Increasing / expanding the PSPP (Public Sector Purchase Programme) known more widely as QE (Quantitative Easing). He has a few ways to do this, either simply increasing the current scheme purchases each month from the current €60 billion a month at the moment to a higher volume. The problem is he will run out of assets to buy sooner, in fact as far as I can see quite quickly. Alternatively, he could broaden the scope of purchasing to include say, “Non performing loans” and riskier assets and there are plenty of them languishing in France, Spain, Italy, Greece and Portugal and at the same time increase the quantity of purchases each month (The double whammy approach).</li>\r\n	<li>I have read that he may introduce a new and updated version of the LTRO to target achieving greater liquidity. Although, I am not entirely certain what this would be and how this would work.</li>\r\n	<li>He could also announce a time extension to the overall programme, maybe another full year of support. This could be met with groans from the German contingent in the ECB governing council but Draghi needs a real full-on bazooka.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nWhatever he does, he needs it to be jaw dropping and once and for all send a clear message. The EUROZONE is very close to dropping into recession and with BREXIT fears in the air he has to act strongly with conviction as far as I am concerned. Failure is not an option as the consequences are not worth thinking about.\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>Finally, he could also directly intervene in the currency markets. Sounds a bit out there but wow, would that make a statement… direct intervention. That would give Merkel, Schaeuble and Wiedmann nose bleeds at the mere mention!! Would you not love to watch them pour out their breakfast cornflakes as Mario Draghi announced direct money market currency intervention?</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nWe shall wait and see what he does and it will be eagerly awaited, of that there is no doubt.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) EXCLUSIVE CONTENT:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(This area contains exclusive content for PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) subscribers)\r\n\r\n<strong>4.1: THE PREMIUM SERVICE – TRADING REVIEW: </strong>\r\n\r\n(This section can cover a multitude of points / facts etc. Basically it’s a 360-degree review, which I think should interest subscribers):\r\n\r\nWhat a pig of a run I am having. Almost every trade I select goes arseways; it is both very frustrating and annoying. It will come good and it will be stronger than before.\r\n\r\nI remain as positive as one can be and still look forward to trading but I am in a bad run of form, which affects every trader from time to time.\r\n\r\nI tried to let trades run in line with my TRADE PLAN but frankly it is just not that type of market; I have annoyingly let profits go. I have been top ticked a couple of times and not exited trades trying to let them run, all of which have backfired. I could have had another 100+ pips on the board plus more $$$. These sound like excuses and maybe they are but they are also the facts.\r\n\r\nThis is a “scalpers” market place for most of the time at the moment and I need to react and adapt better and just get on with it, frustrating, as it is not letting trades run to my full objective.\r\n\r\nI have a formula that has worked for over 3 years and I have had a period like this before. Rest assured, I am trading my TRADE PLAN, which does work!\r\n\r\nFor example straight after NFP, I always remain light on trading. At the close, looking at charts my follow through and pullback trades after NFP has given me 13 (thirteen) trades to load up and enter Sunday evening into Monday morning. The NFP move and my TRADE PLAN guidelines have identified this number of trades on the closing weekly prices. This is probably the largest number ever.\r\n\r\nI will post these but to give me more flexibility I will use smaller position sizes and simply add more trades if the initial trades gain traction.\r\n\r\nI have set-ups with: - USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, EUR/CHF, NZD/CAD, NZD/CHF, AUD/CHF, EUR/GBP, EUR/AUD, USDCAD, GBP/NZD, NZD/USD, AUD/USD and USD/CHF.\r\n\r\nBy the time I categorize the set-ups there could potentially be 16/17 LIMIT ORDER trades overall. Get ready.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>4.2: TRADE STYLE DEFINITIONS:</strong>\r\n\r\n<u>4.2.1: RADAR TRADES:\r\n\r\n</u>These are pre-meditated entry trades set from either Fibonacci levels, pivot points or previous support and resistance based off a combination of horizontal or trend line support or resistance.\r\nThe goal is always if possible to swing trade these trades by establishing a position that if market conditions apply allow the trade to gather traction and develop into a longer-term position trade.\r\n\r\n<u>4.2.2: FLASH TRADES:\r\n\r\n</u>Mainly simply, opportunist trades in LIVE market conditions. These trades are either based off a pullback strategy, a GIMME10 pips strategy, or off momentum in a trading pair at the time of entry.\r\nThe goal is to either take 10-30 pips or see a sufficient move to place a protective stop in place to see if a swing trade develops.\r\nSome FLASH TRADES may form part of an overall trading plan with a given currency pair, but the entry could not be made via a LIMIT ORDER.\r\n\r\nIn addition in 2016, some FLASH TRADES can be of a longer duration, with very specific goals.\r\n\r\n<u>4.2.3: FUNDAMENTAL TRADES:\r\n\r\n</u>These will be trades based off my TRADING PLAN goals for trades in line with my longer-term market views.\r\nTrades in this area will use in addition Fibonacci levels, Pivot points, trend lines and prior support and resistance levels, weekly and monthly ATR’s (Average True Ranges) when setting Stop Loss levels.\r\nThese trades are hopefully of a longer-term nature. They will be initially “single-lot” sized trades due to the wider stop placements that will be applied.\r\n\r\n<u>4.2.4: PART-TIME TRADER TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\nThese trade set-ups are intended to have a longer-term trading perspective. They are not only targeted at traders who consider they are part-time Forex traders; obviously, all traders can of course take advantage. (My definition of a part-time trader is one who is only able to look at their computer screens, or, mobile devices to check trades two or three times a day).\r\n\r\nA key feature of these set-ups is that they have much wider than normal stops to allow for market swings and volatility. The trades therefore have a smaller position size to allow for the swings in volatility, but multiple trades in the same currency pair are added when the core trade has gained traction in the desired direction.\r\n\r\nMy goal is to have multiple trades open/live at any one time and maybe 2/3 open/live trades with the same currency pair. I will of course suggest to take some profits along the way, but hopefully at the same time letting trades run as far as possible.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>4.3: THE PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE SPREADSHEETS (INCLUDING LIVE &amp; LIMIT ORDER TRADES):</strong>\r\n\r\nFull and complete details surrounding these trades can be found inside the PREMIUM SERVICE on my website. These can be found on the spreadsheets on the website.\r\n\r\n<strong>4.4: REVIEW OF OPEN LIMIT ORDER TRADES NOT YET TRIGGERED:</strong>\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.1: RADAR LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n\r\n</u>RT656 – EUR/USD:\r\nSet up after NFP calmed down. Looking to short at resistance looking for a move lower into trend lows. Looking for ECB action to support this trade.\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.2: FUNDAMENTAL LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n</u>\r\n\r\nFUN273 – EUR/USD:\r\nThis trade is at extremes to pick up a short at almost Armageddon levels.\r\n\r\nFUN274 – USD/CHF:\r\nOpposite to the EUR/USD (FUN273).\r\n\r\nFUN277 – AUD/NZD:\r\nA further set-up for longer-term view.\r\n\r\nFUN278 – GBP/NZD:\r\nAnother set-up to add to the longer-term trade; this one is set to trigger above trend line resistance.\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.3: PART-TIME TRADER LIMIT ORDER TRADES: </u>\r\n\r\nPART041 – USD/CHF:\r\nOpposite to the EUR/USD (PART042).\r\n\r\nPART042 – EUR/USD:\r\nThis trade is at extremes to pick up a short at almost Armageddon levels.\r\n\r\nPART044 – AUD/NZD:\r\nA further set-up for longer-term view.\r\n\r\nPART045 – GBP/NZD:\r\nAnother set-up to add to the longer-term trade; this one is set to trigger above trend line resistance\r\n\r\nPART048 – GBP/CHF:\r\nThis is almost like one of my ARMEGEDDON TRADES; I may be too greedy with the entrance level. This trade will be reviewed early this coming week with regards to its continuing validity.\r\n\r\nPART054 – USD/CAD:\r\nLonger-term my views are bullish this pair with a mixture of central bank and fiscal changes. I am looking to pick this pair up long at trend line support and the 76.4% Fibonacci level.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n	<li><strong> COMING UP THIS WEEK:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5.1: THIS WEEK’S FOREX NEWS THAT INTERESTS ME:</u>\r\n\r\n(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market other than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to <a href=\"http://www.forexfactory.com\">www.forexfactory.com</a> and <a href=\"http://www.tradingeconomics.com\">www.tradingeconomics.com</a> for a more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).\r\nSUNDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: CNY – Trade Balance.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: CAD – BOC Interest Rate Announcement.\r\nWEDNESDAY: NZD – RBNZ Interest Rate Statement &amp; Press Conference.\r\nWEDNESDAY: CNY - CPi.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: ECB – Press Conference and Rate Statement.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: CAD – Employment Data.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>5.1: THE USD MAJORS SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS: </u>\r\n\r\n(In this section I have as usual kept my charts as minimalist as possible. With regards to charting in my opinion less is more!! I hope that they are clear. All readers regardless of level of experience should be able to follow my thoughts from my comments to the levels on the charts with ease)\r\n\r\nMy comments are contained on the charts. If you have difficulty getting them to expand please let me know. Sometimes word press is difficult.\r\n\r\nEUR/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.1004\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/eurusd-daily-05032016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7402\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7402\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/EURUSD-DAILY-05032016-1024x509.png\" alt=\"EURUSD DAILY 05032016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"509\" /></a>\r\n\r\nGBP/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.4227\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/gbpusd-daily-05032016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7403\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7403\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/GBPUSD-DAILY-05032016-1024x509.png\" alt=\"GBPUSD DAILY 05032016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"509\" /></a>\r\n\r\nAUD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.7436\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/audusd-daily-05032016-3/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7401\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7401\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/AUDUSD-DAILY-05032016-2-1024x509.png\" alt=\"AUDUSD DAILY 05032016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"509\" /></a>\r\n\r\nNZD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.6818\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/nzdusd-daily-05032016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7404\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7404\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/NZDUSD-DAILY-05032016-1024x509.png\" alt=\"NZDUSD DAILY 05032016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"509\" /></a>\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.3312\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/usdcad-daily-05032016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7405\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7405\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDCAD-DAILY-05032016-1024x509.png\" alt=\"USDCAD DAILY 05032016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"509\" /></a>\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF - Weekly Closing Price: 0.9929\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/usdchf-daily-05032016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7406\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7406\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDCHF-DAILY-05032016-1024x509.png\" alt=\"USDCHF DAILY 05032016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"509\" /></a>\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY - Weekly Closing Price: 113.77\r\n\r\n<u><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/usdjpy-daily-05032016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7407\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7407\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDJPY-DAILY-05032016-1024x509.png\" alt=\"USDJPY DAILY 05032016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"509\" /></a></u>\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3: CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nAnother big week for news lies ahead of us.\r\n\r\nWe have three central banks with rate announcements BOC, RBNZ and ECB, and two of them the RBNZD and ECB have press conferences.\r\n\r\nOf late the effectiveness of central bank intervention has been called into question, in particular with the BOJ introduction of negative interest rates. It could be a very choppy week once again.\r\n\r\nThe market has been guilty of late of not really providing an effective follow through. It should be interesting to see on Sunday evening / Monday morning if the reaction to the NFP data follows on into the Asian and European sessions.\r\n\r\nBe savvy…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nTake care,\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>','CENTRAL BANKS TAKE CENTRE STAGE THIS WEEK…BOC, RBNZ and ECB','','inherit','closed','closed','','7408-revision-v1','','','2016-03-05 12:31:13','2016-03-05 17:31:13','',7408,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/7408-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(7410,1,'2016-03-05 12:33:02','2016-03-05 17:33:02','<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li><strong> INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nAfter my last blog, which followed a disastrous week of trading for many reasons I needed a week to consolidate.\r\n\r\nWell, here we are at the end of the week and… I have and I haven’t consolidated. Yes, I have banked some pips but I have also banked more pip losses as well, plus I am currently holding trades that are under water. The trades being held are longer-term these trades that fit with my fundamental views of the longer-term market.\r\n\r\nA week in Forex is a long time and this time next week, all the trades I am holding could reverse direction nicely and I would be well set up. I had these trades going into NFP last Friday, I think I did about an 11 page tweet to subscribers on my thoughts and this, actually followed a detailed email from the previous day with my overview from a macro level on the trades that I was looking to hold. It was touch and go to either close trades and take pain or hold and keep alive in line with convictions. There were two trades that were specifically causing me concern. I initially kept them both open but chose to cover one as the trading day developed. I am having a poor run at the moment and I need to get my mojo back.\r\n\r\nLeaping forward…\r\n\r\nLast week, I had a few comments about the ice storm that cut power in my area and affected over 260,000 homes in and around Montreal (on and off the island). Not that I want to turn this blog into a meteorological report each week, but I could not let it pass to inform readers that if Met. Canada is correct (they are about as good as Stephen Poloz at the BOC most times), from early this week we are returning to positive temperatures not just during the day but also overnight. This means that the snow melts, there is no more shoveling of snow and BBQ times are back.\r\n\r\nFinally, in this section, just to remind you; you could be the next winner of a free PREMIUM SERVICE (SILVER) subscription; if you subscribe to receive this free blog via my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nYou are automatically entered into a free monthly draw, once you’ve subscribed. Each month during 2016 one lucky blog subscriber will receive a free subscription to the PREMIUM SERVICE (SILVER).\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>2.1: WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber, fee based trade set-up option for Forex traders regardless of experience or background. I provide traders suggested trades, and some market commentary related to open trades or factors within the overall market that have my interest.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and the various trade styles plus how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nAdditional information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE you will require a PayPal account.\r\n\r\n<u>2.2: PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE THIS MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\nNET PIPS THIS MONTH SO FAR:            -29\r\nNET PIPS THIS YEAR SO FAR:                -161\r\n\r\nNET PIPS 2015        +10,686\r\nNET PIPS 2014        +11,209\r\n\r\n(I trade basically for 10 months a year. I do not trade from mid July through early September or mid December through early January).\r\n\r\nIf you want more data or detail about the performance and the tabs on my website landing page do not answer your questions, contact me directly and I will supply the trading data you require. There are NO secrets. There are many, many spreadsheets detailing performance trade by trade and by trade and by trading style, way too many to place in this blog. If you are interested in the PREMIUM SERVICE and want more information, all you have to do is ask.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>3.1: LAST WEEK’S NEWS – MY THOUGHTS:</strong>\r\n\r\nAs usual, when you look back on a Non-Farm Payroll week, all of the data that was prior to NFP seems to pale into insignificance as NFP at the end of the week was so dominant.\r\n\r\nThe one thing apart from the economic data that stuck out for me was the price action in gold. It broke into new highs for the year, it took with it Copper and Silver and these precious metals supported the moves higher with the AUD and NZD currencies. From a currency perspective, it will be interesting to see how the RBA and RBNZ react to these moves with the AUD/USD above 0.7350 and NZD/USD above 0.6750. Bear in mind we heard from Mr. Edwards from the RBA recently stating that the RBA felt that fair value was around 0.6500. With regards to the RNBZ, we will hear straight from horses’ mouth on Wednesday this week when “Spinner” Wheeler (RBNZ governor) has an interest rate decision and monetary policy statement.\r\n\r\nWhy was gold so strong?\r\n\r\nI can only think that because of central banks having negative interest rates, institutions are maybe looking at gold instead. It can’t be because they see it as a hedge against inflation… I was laughing when I wrote that last line. It’s above my pay grade but negative interest rates are the only thing that I can think of.\r\n\r\nBack to NFP…\r\n\r\nBlow out numbers once again; except for the fact that hourly earnings are not rising, in fact, they pulled back to a negative number.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">242,000 New Jobs\r\n<em>(Previous reading was revised to 182,000)</em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">4.9% Unemployment Rate\r\n(<em>Previous reading was 4.9%)</em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Average Hourly earnings – February -0.1% and yearly 2.2%\r\n<em>(The previous average hourly earnings were 0.5% and 2.5%)</em></p>\r\nAs I said these were good numbers except for the hourly earnings and show that the U.S. economy is in good shape from a job creation perspective.\r\n\r\nThere was a huge amount of Australian data last week, for the most part very positive which along with precious metals (discussed earlier) has kept the AUD currency well bid. However, as mentioned, this brings with it its own problems for the RBA as they try to balance the very diverse economy, eastern versus western Australia. Who would want to be a central bank governor?\r\n\r\nThe UK had a string of PMi data, all poor, yet the GBP rallied on crap data…excellent… go figure!!\r\n\r\nThe BREXIT discussion rambled on but as more data was released about the consequences plus the names of who is pro and who is not pro BREXIT some stability fell into place<strong>. </strong>I will guarantee you one thing. No matter how heated the debate gets in the coming weeks and months in the UK, there will be no references to hair, spray tans, sizes of hands, wetting ones trousers, sweating, choking, con artists, liars, losers, fakes, phony’s, scams or penis sizes when the TV debates commence.\r\n\r\nPoliticians around this planet may in the main, be self-serving, protectionist vote grabbers. But there is just NOTHING to compare to the American republican parties, dysfunctional gang of non-performing immature, non-presidential numpties, who are nothing better than a group of 6-7 years school kids.\r\n\r\nThe circus, reality TV show that it is, is an embarrassment to democracy and quite frankly, is it any wonder that so many people are apathetic to politics and should they decide to vote it would probably be as a protest vote. In my opinion, the voters do not win in the long term. The only winners are the TV stations via ratings and they simply do not boldly question or highlight the fact that this behavior is unacceptable. As for the Republican Party establishment, they are presiding over an implosion.\r\n\r\nI only mention this in the blog because we are going to see huge uncertainty in the U.S. market moving forward. The circus might amuse a little with the antics on the TV screen at the moment, but there really is a serious side to consider.\r\n\r\nMoving on and finally….\r\n\r\nMario Draghi dropped a huge hint during last week (Tuesday) that the kitchen sink was about to be thrown at the market and we shall see exactly how big the sink is this Thursday at the ECB Press Conference. I am covering this in the next section.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>3.2: WHAT’S ON MY MIND:</strong>\r\n\r\nCENTRAL BANKS TAKE CENTRE STAGE THIS WEEK…BOC, RBNZ and ECB\r\n\r\nHappy days are here again…\r\n\r\nThis week we have the BOC, RBNZ and ECB front and centre. If I were a stand up comic, there is so much material here based around what we will be told as being the central bank view on all things local and worldwide. I will try to keep this light with some facts to give an overview of how I see things.\r\n\r\n<u>BOC: Stephen Poloz (Governor) – Wednesday 9<sup>th</sup> March:</u>\r\n\r\nI think my views are well documented about the Canadian economy and what I think that the BOC will do / has to do moving forward.\r\n\r\nLet me do a quick recap; for the past year the CAD currency has for the most part been a proxy for the price of WTi (oil). Many, mainly Canadian government officials, see this as rather unfair as the Canadian economy is much more than just the Alberta sands. However, it is what it is.\r\n\r\nLast year there was a Canadian general election. Long time Prime Minister, Stephen Harper was ousted in favour of younger go-getter Justin Trudeau promising to spend, spend, spend on infrastructure, legalize marijuana and at the same time stick two fingers high up into the air with regards to balancing the budget.\r\n\r\nStephen Poloz last cut interest rates on 15<sup>th</sup> July 2015 by 0.25%. Since that date he has been sitting back and saying that the effects of the rate cut have yet to be seen to its full extent in the Canadian economy. He has also resisted further action due to a government election and budget from the newly elected Liberal Party under Justin Trudeau. Time and reasons for non-action are running out.\r\n\r\nThe initial budget from Justin Trudeau is due March 22<sup>nd</sup> and Trudeau has already stated that there will be no “big ticket” bazookas. Canadian GDP is like most G7 countries, falling backwards instead of moving upwards.\r\n\r\nSoon it will be over to the BOC and Poloz to take action.\r\n\r\nMy thoughts are:\r\n\r\nThe BOC will probably stand still this month and leave rates unchanged at 0.50% in view of the Trudeau’s budget. This is further supported by the fact that there is only a rate announcement this week, no press conference. (On the basis that I have been calling for a rate cut the last two meetings and got it wrong back to back, get ready for a third error and be ready to trade long the USD/CAD!!).\r\n\r\nWhilst I think in Canada there will be rate cuts in the near future to help stimulate the economy, these will take place after the Prime Minister’s Budget. I also think that negative interest rates and QE (Quantitative Easing) will also be on the cards.\r\n\r\nThe psyche and culture of Canadians is in my opinion, laid-back, and sometimes head in the sand to ignore reality at times, the latter definitely applies to Stephen Poloz as far as I am concerned.\r\n\r\n<u>RBNZ: Graeme Wheeler (Governor) – Wednesday 9<sup>th</sup> March:</u>\r\n\r\nOver the past couple of years it has been easier to win on the 649 lottery in Canada, than predict the RBNZ. They say one thing and their actions say the opposite lots of times.\r\n\r\nAt the moment the NZD/USD is attempting to break out above 0.6750 / 0.6800. One would not have thought that Wheeler and his table of accountants would be cracking open the champagne on this news.\r\n\r\nReading the comments over the past few months, the RBNZ appears to be relying heavily on the NZD depreciating to help bring inflation back to their 2% target. Well, Graeme me old pal, hows that working out for ya! – not very well at the moment I would say.\r\n\r\nIn addition, we have the PBOC in easing mode, the BOJ in easing mode and Mario Draghi at the ECB about to throw his mother-in-law, Granny and the kitchen sink at the market to try to fight DEFLATION and get some growth into the EUROZONE.\r\n\r\nJust to keep a level playing field the RBNZ needs to ease… will they?\r\n\r\nThe RBA stood firm last week, which of course doesn’t mean that the RBNZ has to do the same. But a 0.50% cut to 2.0% would send a clear and unambiguous message that the RBNZ means business. It may need such a bold statement of intent instead of the usual pussyfooting about game that the RBNZ usual play. We should however, be ready for just more jawboning.\r\n\r\nWhatever the RBNZ does, if it\'s a rate cut they have to be firm with the commentary as well. In the past they have been fecking useless doing this. My dog Ozzy is very single minded, if he could talk he would have no problem nailing this.\r\n\r\n<u>ECB: Mario Draghi (President) – Thursday 10<sup>th</sup> March:</u>\r\n\r\nThe prime news event this week is the ECB Press Conference with Mario Draghi. God love him, he has Merkel, Wiedmann and Schaeuble to contend with. I am sure these three amigos in Draghi’s eyes are like annoying zits that just keep coming back every time you think that you’ve squeezed the heebie-jesus out of them.\r\n\r\nMario Draghi is front and centre. He has been firing bullets at the EUROZONE problems every since the “whatever it takes” speech in London.\r\n\r\nWhat does he have left?\r\n\r\nI am off the Jack Daniels at the moment, so my creative thinking cap was diminished slightly putting some thoughts into this.\r\n\r\nLast week, Draghi stated that the inflation trends for the EUROZONE were still weak; this is like the nod in central banker language that as traders we should get ready and be prepared.\r\n\r\nHere is my list that I think he will look at and he may add none of these, some of these or all of these, only time will tell.\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>Increasing the negative interest rate at the ECB higher from the existing 0.30%. As far as I can see the feeling is that by the year-end the ECB target is 0.50%. Draghi may go the whole way now, or add another 0.10% making the new overnight rate -0.40%</li>\r\n	<li>Increasing / expanding the PSPP (Public Sector Purchase Programme) known more widely as QE (Quantitative Easing). He has a few ways to do this, either simply increasing the current scheme purchases each month from the current €60 billion a month at the moment to a higher volume. The problem is he will run out of assets to buy sooner, in fact as far as I can see quite quickly. Alternatively, he could broaden the scope of purchasing to include say, “Non performing loans” and riskier assets and there are plenty of them languishing in France, Spain, Italy, Greece and Portugal and at the same time increase the quantity of purchases each month (The double whammy approach).</li>\r\n	<li>I have read that he may introduce a new and updated version of the LTRO to target achieving greater liquidity. Although, I am not entirely certain what this would be and how this would work.</li>\r\n	<li>He could also announce a time extension to the overall programme, maybe another full year of support. This could be met with groans from the German contingent in the ECB governing council but Draghi needs a real full-on bazooka.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nWhatever he does, he needs it to be jaw dropping and once and for all send a clear message. The EUROZONE is very close to dropping into recession and with BREXIT fears in the air he has to act strongly with conviction as far as I am concerned. Failure is not an option as the consequences are not worth thinking about.\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>Finally, he could also directly intervene in the currency markets. Sounds a bit out there but wow, would that make a statement… direct intervention. That would give Merkel, Schaeuble and Wiedmann nose bleeds at the mere mention!! Would you not love to watch them pour out their breakfast cornflakes as Mario Draghi announced direct money market currency intervention?</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nWe shall wait and see what he does and it will be eagerly awaited, of that there is no doubt.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) EXCLUSIVE CONTENT:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(This area contains exclusive content for PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) subscribers)\r\n\r\n<strong>4.1: THE PREMIUM SERVICE – TRADING REVIEW: </strong>\r\n\r\n(This section can cover a multitude of points / facts etc. Basically it’s a 360-degree review, which I think should interest subscribers):\r\n\r\nWhat a pig of a run I am having. Almost every trade I select goes arseways; it is both very frustrating and annoying. It will come good and it will be stronger than before.\r\n\r\nI remain as positive as one can be and still look forward to trading but I am in a bad run of form, which affects every trader from time to time.\r\n\r\nI tried to let trades run in line with my TRADE PLAN but frankly it is just not that type of market; I have annoyingly let profits go. I have been top ticked a couple of times and not exited trades trying to let them run, all of which have backfired. I could have had another 100+ pips on the board plus more $$$. These sound like excuses and maybe they are but they are also the facts.\r\n\r\nThis is a “scalpers” market place for most of the time at the moment and I need to react and adapt better and just get on with it, frustrating, as it is not letting trades run to my full objective.\r\n\r\nI have a formula that has worked for over 3 years and I have had a period like this before. Rest assured, I am trading my TRADE PLAN, which does work!\r\n\r\nFor example straight after NFP, I always remain light on trading. At the close, looking at charts my follow through and pullback trades after NFP has given me 13 (thirteen) trades to load up and enter Sunday evening into Monday morning. The NFP move and my TRADE PLAN guidelines have identified this number of trades on the closing weekly prices. This is probably the largest number ever.\r\n\r\nI will post these but to give me more flexibility I will use smaller position sizes and simply add more trades if the initial trades gain traction.\r\n\r\nI have set-ups with: - USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, EUR/CHF, NZD/CAD, NZD/CHF, AUD/CHF, EUR/GBP, EUR/AUD, USD/CAD, GBP/NZD, NZD/USD, AUD/USD and USD/CHF.\r\n\r\nBy the time I categorize the set-ups there could potentially be 16/17 LIMIT ORDER trades overall. Get ready.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>4.2: TRADE STYLE DEFINITIONS:</strong>\r\n\r\n<u>4.2.1: RADAR TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\nThese are pre-meditated entry trades set from either Fibonacci levels, pivot points or previous support and resistance based off a combination of horizontal or trend line support or resistance.\r\nThe goal is always if possible to swing trade these trades by establishing a position that if market conditions apply allow the trade to gather traction and develop into a longer-term position trade.\r\n\r\n<u>4.2.2: FLASH TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\nMainly simply, opportunist trades in LIVE market conditions. These trades are either based off a pullback strategy, a GIMME10 pips strategy, or off momentum in a trading pair at the time of entry.\r\nThe goal is to either take 10-30 pips or see a sufficient move to place a protective stop in place to see if a swing trade develops.\r\nSome FLASH TRADES may form part of an overall trading plan with a given currency pair, but the entry could not be made via a LIMIT ORDER.\r\n\r\nIn addition in 2016, some FLASH TRADES can be of a longer duration, with very specific goals.\r\n\r\n<u>4.2.3: FUNDAMENTAL TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\nThese will be trades based off my TRADING PLAN goals for trades in line with my longer-term market views.\r\nTrades in this area will use in addition Fibonacci levels, Pivot points, trend lines and prior support and resistance levels, weekly and monthly ATR’s (Average True Ranges) when setting Stop Loss levels.\r\nThese trades are hopefully of a longer-term nature. They will be initially “single-lot” sized trades due to the wider stop placements that will be applied.\r\n\r\n<u>4.2.4: PART-TIME TRADER TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\nThese trade set-ups are intended to have a longer-term trading perspective. They are not only targeted at traders who consider they are part-time Forex traders; obviously, all traders can of course take advantage. (My definition of a part-time trader is one who is only able to look at their computer screens, or, mobile devices to check trades two or three times a day).\r\n\r\nA key feature of these set-ups is that they have much wider than normal stops to allow for market swings and volatility. The trades therefore have a smaller position size to allow for the swings in volatility, but multiple trades in the same currency pair are added when the core trade has gained traction in the desired direction.\r\n\r\nMy goal is to have multiple trades open/live at any one time and maybe 2/3 open/live trades with the same currency pair. I will of course suggest to take some profits along the way, but hopefully at the same time letting trades run as far as possible.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>4.3: THE PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE SPREADSHEETS (INCLUDING LIVE &amp; LIMIT ORDER TRADES):</strong>\r\n\r\nFull and complete details surrounding these trades can be found inside the PREMIUM SERVICE on my website. These can be found on the spreadsheets on the website.\r\n\r\n<strong>4.4: REVIEW OF OPEN LIMIT ORDER TRADES NOT YET TRIGGERED:</strong>\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.1: RADAR LIMIT ORDER TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\nRT656 – EUR/USD:\r\nSet up after NFP calmed down. Looking to short at resistance looking for a move lower into trend lows. Looking for ECB action to support this trade.\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.2: FUNDAMENTAL LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n</u>\r\n\r\nFUN273 – EUR/USD:\r\nThis trade is at extremes to pick up a short at almost Armageddon levels.\r\n\r\nFUN274 – USD/CHF:\r\nOpposite to the EUR/USD (FUN273).\r\n\r\nFUN277 – AUD/NZD:\r\nA further set-up for longer-term view.\r\n\r\nFUN278 – GBP/NZD:\r\nAnother set-up to add to the longer-term trade; this one is set to trigger above trend line resistance.\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.3: PART-TIME TRADER LIMIT ORDER TRADES: </u>\r\n\r\nPART041 – USD/CHF:\r\nOpposite to the EUR/USD (PART042).\r\n\r\nPART042 – EUR/USD:\r\nThis trade is at extremes to pick up a short at almost Armageddon levels.\r\n\r\nPART044 – AUD/NZD:\r\nA further set-up for longer-term view.\r\n\r\nPART045 – GBP/NZD:\r\nAnother set-up to add to the longer-term trade; this one is set to trigger above trend line resistance\r\n\r\nPART048 – GBP/CHF:\r\nThis is almost like one of my ARMEGEDDON TRADES; I may be too greedy with the entrance level. This trade will be reviewed early this coming week with regards to its continuing validity.\r\n\r\nPART054 – USD/CAD:\r\nLonger-term my views are bullish this pair with a mixture of central bank and fiscal changes. I am looking to pick this pair up long at trend line support and the 76.4% Fibonacci level.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n	<li><strong> COMING UP THIS WEEK:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5.1: THIS WEEK’S FOREX NEWS THAT INTERESTS ME:</u>\r\n\r\n(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market other than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to <a href=\"http://www.forexfactory.com\">www.forexfactory.com</a> and <a href=\"http://www.tradingeconomics.com\">www.tradingeconomics.com</a> for a more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).\r\nSUNDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: CNY – Trade Balance.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: CAD – BOC Interest Rate Announcement.\r\nWEDNESDAY: NZD – RBNZ Interest Rate Statement &amp; Press Conference.\r\nWEDNESDAY: CNY - CPi.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: ECB – Press Conference and Rate Statement.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: CAD – Employment Data.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>5.1: THE USD MAJORS SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS: </u>\r\n\r\n(In this section I have as usual kept my charts as minimalist as possible. With regards to charting in my opinion less is more!! I hope that they are clear. All readers regardless of level of experience should be able to follow my thoughts from my comments to the levels on the charts with ease)\r\n\r\nMy comments are contained on the charts. If you have difficulty getting them to expand please let me know. Sometimes word press is difficult.\r\n\r\nEUR/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.1004\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/eurusd-daily-05032016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7402\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7402\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/EURUSD-DAILY-05032016-1024x509.png\" alt=\"EURUSD DAILY 05032016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"509\" /></a>\r\n\r\nGBP/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.4227\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/gbpusd-daily-05032016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7403\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7403\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/GBPUSD-DAILY-05032016-1024x509.png\" alt=\"GBPUSD DAILY 05032016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"509\" /></a>\r\n\r\nAUD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.7436\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/audusd-daily-05032016-3/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7401\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7401\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/AUDUSD-DAILY-05032016-2-1024x509.png\" alt=\"AUDUSD DAILY 05032016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"509\" /></a>\r\n\r\nNZD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.6818\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/nzdusd-daily-05032016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7404\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7404\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/NZDUSD-DAILY-05032016-1024x509.png\" alt=\"NZDUSD DAILY 05032016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"509\" /></a>\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.3312\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/usdcad-daily-05032016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7405\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7405\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDCAD-DAILY-05032016-1024x509.png\" alt=\"USDCAD DAILY 05032016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"509\" /></a>\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF - Weekly Closing Price: 0.9929\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/usdchf-daily-05032016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7406\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7406\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDCHF-DAILY-05032016-1024x509.png\" alt=\"USDCHF DAILY 05032016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"509\" /></a>\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY - Weekly Closing Price: 113.77\r\n\r\n<u><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/usdjpy-daily-05032016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7407\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7407\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDJPY-DAILY-05032016-1024x509.png\" alt=\"USDJPY DAILY 05032016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"509\" /></a></u>\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3: CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nAnother big week for news lies ahead of us.\r\n\r\nWe have three central banks with rate announcements BOC, RBNZ and ECB, and two of them the RBNZ and ECB have press conferences.\r\n\r\nOf late the effectiveness of central bank intervention has been called into question, in particular with the BOJ introduction of negative interest rates. It could be a very choppy week once again.\r\n\r\nThe market has been guilty of late of not really providing an effective follow through. It should be interesting to see on Sunday evening / Monday morning if the reaction to the NFP data follows on into the Asian and European sessions.\r\n\r\nBe savvy…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nTake care,\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>','CENTRAL BANKS TAKE CENTRE STAGE THIS WEEK…BOC, RBNZ and ECB','','inherit','closed','closed','','7408-revision-v1','','','2016-03-05 12:33:02','2016-03-05 17:33:02','',7408,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/7408-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(7416,1,'2016-03-05 13:02:54','2016-03-05 18:02:54','<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li><strong> INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nAfter my last blog, which followed a disastrous week of trading for many reasons I needed a week to consolidate.\r\n\r\nWell, here we are at the end of the week and… I have and I haven’t consolidated. Yes, I have banked some pips but I have also banked more pip losses as well, plus I am currently holding trades that are under water. The trades being held are longer-term these trades that fit with my fundamental views of the longer-term market.\r\n\r\nA week in Forex is a long time and this time next week, all the trades I am holding could reverse direction nicely and I would be well set up. I had these trades going into NFP last Friday, I think I did about an 11 page tweet to subscribers on my thoughts and this, actually followed a detailed email from the previous day with my overview from a macro level on the trades that I was looking to hold. It was touch and go to either close trades and take pain or hold and keep alive in line with convictions. There were two trades that were specifically causing me concern. I initially kept them both open but chose to cover one as the trading day developed. I am having a poor run at the moment and I need to get my mojo back.\r\n\r\nLeaping forward…\r\n\r\nLast week, I had a few comments about the ice storm that cut power in my area and affected over 260,000 homes in and around Montreal (on and off the island). Not that I want to turn this blog into a meteorological report each week, but I could not let it pass to inform readers that if Met. Canada is correct (they are about as good as Stephen Poloz at the BOC most times), from early this week we are returning to positive temperatures not just during the day but also overnight. This means that the snow melts, there is no more shoveling of snow and BBQ times are back.\r\n\r\nFinally, in this section, just to remind you; you could be the next winner of a free PREMIUM SERVICE (SILVER) subscription; if you subscribe to receive this free blog via my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nYou are automatically entered into a free monthly draw, once you’ve subscribed. Each month during 2016 one lucky blog subscriber will receive a free subscription to the PREMIUM SERVICE (SILVER).\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong><strong> </strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>2.1: WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber, fee based trade set-up option for Forex traders regardless of experience or background. I provide traders suggested trades, and some market commentary related to open trades or factors within the overall market that have my interest.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and the various trade styles plus how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nAdditional information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE you will require a PayPal account.\r\n\r\n<u>2.2: PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE THIS MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\nNET PIPS THIS MONTH SO FAR:            -29\r\nNET PIPS THIS YEAR SO FAR:                -161\r\n\r\nNET PIPS 2015        +10,686\r\nNET PIPS 2014        +11,209\r\n\r\n(I trade basically for 10 months a year. I do not trade from mid July through early September or mid December through early January).\r\n\r\nIf you want more data or detail about the performance and the tabs on my website landing page do not answer your questions, contact me directly and I will supply the trading data you require. There are NO secrets. There are many, many spreadsheets detailing performance trade by trade and by trade and by trading style, way too many to place in this blog. If you are interested in the PREMIUM SERVICE and want more information, all you have to do is ask.<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>3.1: LAST WEEK’S NEWS – MY THOUGHTS:</strong>\r\n\r\nAs usual, when you look back on a Non-Farm Payroll week, all of the data that was prior to NFP seems to pale into insignificance as NFP at the end of the week was so dominant.\r\n\r\nThe one thing apart from the economic data that stuck out for me was the price action in gold. It broke into new highs for the year, it took with it Copper and Silver and these precious metals supported the moves higher with the AUD and NZD currencies. From a currency perspective, it will be interesting to see how the RBA and RBNZ react to these moves with the AUD/USD above 0.7350 and NZD/USD above 0.6750. Bear in mind we heard from Mr. Edwards from the RBA recently stating that the RBA felt that fair value was around 0.6500. With regards to the RNBZ, we will hear straight from horses’ mouth on Wednesday this week when “Spinner” Wheeler (RBNZ governor) has an interest rate decision and monetary policy statement.\r\n\r\nWhy was gold so strong?\r\n\r\nI can only think that because of central banks having negative interest rates, institutions are maybe looking at gold instead. It can’t be because they see it as a hedge against inflation… I was laughing when I wrote that last line. It’s above my pay grade but negative interest rates are the only thing that I can think of.\r\n\r\nBack to NFP…\r\n\r\nBlow out numbers once again; except for the fact that hourly earnings are not rising, in fact, they pulled back to a negative number.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">242,000 New Jobs\r\n<em>(Previous reading was revised to 182,000)</em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">4.9% Unemployment Rate\r\n(<em>Previous reading was 4.9%)</em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Average Hourly earnings – February -0.1% and yearly 2.2%\r\n<em>(The previous average hourly earnings were 0.5% and 2.5%)</em></p>\r\nAs I said these were good numbers except for the hourly earnings and show that the U.S. economy is in good shape from a job creation perspective.\r\n\r\nThere was a huge amount of Australian data last week, for the most part very positive which along with precious metals (discussed earlier) has kept the AUD currency well bid. However, as mentioned, this brings with it its own problems for the RBA as they try to balance the very diverse economy, eastern versus western Australia. Who would want to be a central bank governor?\r\n\r\nThe UK had a string of PMi data, all poor, yet the GBP rallied on crap data…excellent… go figure!!\r\n\r\nThe BREXIT discussion rambled on but as more data was released about the consequences plus the names of who is pro and who is not pro BREXIT some stability fell into place<strong>. </strong>I will guarantee you one thing. No matter how heated the debate gets in the coming weeks and months in the UK, there will be no references to hair, spray tans, sizes of hands, wetting ones trousers, sweating, choking, con artists, liars, losers, fakes, phony’s, scams or penis sizes when the TV debates commence.\r\n\r\nPoliticians around this planet may in the main, be self-serving, protectionist vote grabbers. But there is just NOTHING to compare to the American republican parties, dysfunctional gang of non-performing immature, non-presidential numpties, who are nothing better than a group of 6-7 years school kids.\r\n\r\nThe circus, reality TV show that it is, is an embarrassment to democracy and quite frankly, is it any wonder that so many people are apathetic to politics and should they decide to vote it would probably be as a protest vote. In my opinion, the voters do not win in the long term. The only winners are the TV stations via ratings and they simply do not boldly question or highlight the fact that this behavior is unacceptable. As for the Republican Party establishment, they are presiding over an implosion.\r\n\r\nI only mention this in the blog because we are going to see huge uncertainty in the U.S. market moving forward. The circus might amuse a little with the antics on the TV screen at the moment, but there really is a serious side to consider.\r\n\r\nMoving on and finally….\r\n\r\nMario Draghi dropped a huge hint during last week (Tuesday) that the kitchen sink was about to be thrown at the market and we shall see exactly how big the sink is this Thursday at the ECB Press Conference. I am covering this in the next section.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>3.2: WHAT’S ON MY MIND:</strong>\r\n\r\nCENTRAL BANKS TAKE CENTRE STAGE THIS WEEK…BOC, RBNZ and ECB\r\n\r\nHappy days are here again…\r\n\r\nThis week we have the BOC, RBNZ and ECB front and centre. If I were a stand up comic, there is so much material here based around what we will be told as being the central bank view on all things local and worldwide. I will try to keep this light with some facts to give an overview of how I see things.\r\n\r\n<u>BOC: Stephen Poloz (Governor) – Wednesday 9<sup>th</sup> March:</u>\r\n\r\nI think my views are well documented about the Canadian economy and what I think that the BOC will do / has to do moving forward.\r\n\r\nLet me do a quick recap; for the past year the CAD currency has for the most part been a proxy for the price of WTi (oil). Many, mainly Canadian government officials, see this as rather unfair as the Canadian economy is much more than just the Alberta sands. However, it is what it is.\r\n\r\nLast year there was a Canadian general election. Long time Prime Minister, Stephen Harper was ousted in favour of younger go-getter Justin Trudeau promising to spend, spend, spend on infrastructure, legalize marijuana and at the same time stick two fingers high up into the air with regards to balancing the budget.\r\n\r\nStephen Poloz last cut interest rates on 15<sup>th</sup> July 2015 by 0.25%. Since that date he has been sitting back and saying that the effects of the rate cut have yet to be seen to its full extent in the Canadian economy. He has also resisted further action due to a government election and budget from the newly elected Liberal Party under Justin Trudeau. Time and reasons for non-action are running out.\r\n\r\nThe initial budget from Justin Trudeau is due March 22<sup>nd</sup> and Trudeau has already stated that there will be no “big ticket” bazookas. Canadian GDP is like most G7 countries, falling backwards instead of moving upwards.\r\n\r\nSoon it will be over to the BOC and Poloz to take action.\r\n\r\nMy thoughts are:\r\n\r\nThe BOC will probably stand still this month and leave rates unchanged at 0.50% in view of the Trudeau’s budget. This is further supported by the fact that there is only a rate announcement this week, no press conference. (On the basis that I have been calling for a rate cut the last two meetings and got it wrong back to back, get ready for a third error and be ready to trade long the USD/CAD!!).\r\n\r\nWhilst I think in Canada there will be rate cuts in the near future to help stimulate the economy, these will take place after the Prime Minister’s Budget. I also think that negative interest rates and QE (Quantitative Easing) will also be on the cards.\r\n\r\nThe psyche and culture of Canadians is in my opinion, laid-back, and sometimes head in the sand to ignore reality at times, the latter definitely applies to Stephen Poloz as far as I am concerned.\r\n\r\n<u>RBNZ: Graeme Wheeler (Governor) – Wednesday 9<sup>th</sup> March:</u>\r\n\r\nOver the past couple of years it has been easier to win on the 649 lottery in Canada, than predict the RBNZ. They say one thing and their actions say the opposite lots of times.\r\n\r\nAt the moment the NZD/USD is attempting to break out above 0.6750 / 0.6800. One would not have thought that Wheeler and his table of accountants would be cracking open the champagne on this news.\r\n\r\nReading the comments over the past few months, the RBNZ appears to be relying heavily on the NZD depreciating to help bring inflation back to their 2% target. Well, Graeme me old pal, hows that working out for ya! – not very well at the moment I would say.\r\n\r\nIn addition, we have the PBOC in easing mode, the BOJ in easing mode and Mario Draghi at the ECB about to throw his mother-in-law, Granny and the kitchen sink at the market to try to fight DEFLATION and get some growth into the EUROZONE.\r\n\r\nJust to keep a level playing field the RBNZ needs to ease… will they?\r\n\r\nThe RBA stood firm last week, which of course doesn’t mean that the RBNZ has to do the same. But a 0.50% cut to 2.0% would send a clear and unambiguous message that the RBNZ means business. It may need such a bold statement of intent instead of the usual pussyfooting about game that the RBNZ usual play. We should however, be ready for just more jawboning.\r\n\r\nWhatever the RBNZ does, if it\'s a rate cut they have to be firm with the commentary as well. In the past they have been fecking useless doing this. My dog Ozzy is very single minded, if he could talk he would have no problem nailing this.\r\n\r\n<u>ECB: Mario Draghi (President) – Thursday 10<sup>th</sup> March:</u>\r\n\r\nThe prime news event this week is the ECB Press Conference with Mario Draghi. God love him, he has Merkel, Wiedmann and Schaeuble to contend with. I am sure these three amigos in Draghi’s eyes are like annoying zits that just keep coming back every time you think that you’ve squeezed the heebie-jesus out of them.\r\n\r\nMario Draghi is front and centre. He has been firing bullets at the EUROZONE problems every since the “whatever it takes” speech in London.\r\n\r\nWhat does he have left?\r\n\r\nI am off the Jack Daniels at the moment, so my creative thinking cap was diminished slightly putting some thoughts into this.\r\n\r\nLast week, Draghi stated that the inflation trends for the EUROZONE were still weak; this is like the nod in central banker language that as traders we should get ready and be prepared.\r\n\r\nHere is my list that I think he will look at and he may add none of these, some of these or all of these, only time will tell.\r\n\r\nIncreasing the negative interest rate at the ECB higher from the existing 0.30%. As far as I can see the feeling is that by the year-end the ECB target is 0.50%. Draghi may go the whole way now, or add another 0.10% making the new overnight rate -0.40%\r\n\r\nIncreasing / expanding the PSPP (Public Sector Purchase Programme) known more widely as QE (Quantitative Easing). He has a few ways to do this, either simply increasing the current scheme purchases each month from the current €60 billion a month at the moment to a higher volume. The problem is he will run out of assets to buy sooner, in fact as far as I can see quite quickly. Alternatively, he could broaden the scope of purchasing to include say, “Non performing loans” and riskier assets and there are plenty of them languishing in France, Spain, Italy, Greece and Portugal and at the same time increase the quantity of purchases each month (The double whammy approach).\r\n\r\nI have read that he may introduce a new and updated version of the LTRO to target achieving greater liquidity. Although, I am not entirely certain what this would be and how this would work.\r\n\r\nHe could also announce a time extension to the overall programme, maybe another full year of support. This could be met with groans from the German contingent in the ECB governing council but Draghi needs a real full-on bazooka.\r\n\r\nWhatever he does, he needs it to be jaw dropping and once and for all send a clear message. The EUROZONE is very close to dropping into recession and with BREXIT fears in the air he has to act strongly with conviction as far as I am concerned. Failure is not an option as the consequences are not worth thinking about.\r\n\r\nFinally, he could also directly intervene in the currency markets. Sounds a bit out there but wow, would that make a statement… direct intervention. That would give Merkel, Schaeuble and Wiedmann nose bleeds at the mere mention!! Would you not love to watch them pour out their breakfast cornflakes as Mario Draghi announced direct money market currency intervention?\r\n\r\nWe shall wait and see what he does and it will be eagerly awaited, of that there is no doubt.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) EXCLUSIVE CONTENT:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(This area contains exclusive content for PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) subscribers)\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n	<li><strong> COMING UP THIS WEEK:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5.1: THIS WEEK’S FOREX NEWS THAT INTERESTS ME:</u>\r\n\r\n(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market other than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to <a href=\"http://www.forexfactory.com\">www.forexfactory.com</a> and <a href=\"http://www.tradingeconomics.com\">www.tradingeconomics.com</a> for a more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).\r\nSUNDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: CNY – Trade Balance.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: CAD – BOC Interest Rate Announcement.\r\nWEDNESDAY: NZD – RBNZ Interest Rate Statement &amp; Press Conference.\r\nWEDNESDAY: CNY - CPi.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: ECB – Press Conference and Rate Statement.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: CAD – Employment Data.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>5.1: THE USD MAJORS SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS: </u>\r\n\r\n(In this section I have as usual kept my charts as minimalist as possible. With regards to charting in my opinion less is more!! I hope that they are clear. All readers regardless of level of experience should be able to follow my thoughts from my comments to the levels on the charts with ease)\r\n\r\nMy comments are contained on the charts. If you have difficulty getting them to expand please let me know. Sometimes word press is difficult.\r\n\r\nEUR/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.1004\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/central-banks-take-centre-stage-weekboc-rbnz-ecb/eurusd-daily-05032016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7402\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7402\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/EURUSD-DAILY-05032016-1024x509.png\" alt=\"EURUSD DAILY 05032016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"509\" /></a>\r\n\r\nGBP/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.4227\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/central-banks-take-centre-stage-weekboc-rbnz-ecb/gbpusd-daily-05032016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7403\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7403\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/GBPUSD-DAILY-05032016-1024x509.png\" alt=\"GBPUSD DAILY 05032016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"509\" /></a>\r\n\r\nAUD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.7436\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/central-banks-take-centre-stage-weekboc-rbnz-ecb/audusd-daily-05032016-3/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7401\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7401\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/AUDUSD-DAILY-05032016-2-1024x509.png\" alt=\"AUDUSD DAILY 05032016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"509\" /></a>\r\n\r\nNZD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.6818\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/central-banks-take-centre-stage-weekboc-rbnz-ecb/nzdusd-daily-05032016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7404\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7404\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/NZDUSD-DAILY-05032016-1024x509.png\" alt=\"NZDUSD DAILY 05032016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"509\" /></a>\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.3312\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/central-banks-take-centre-stage-weekboc-rbnz-ecb/usdcad-daily-05032016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7405\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7405\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDCAD-DAILY-05032016-1024x509.png\" alt=\"USDCAD DAILY 05032016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"509\" /></a>\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF - Weekly Closing Price: 0.9929\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/central-banks-take-centre-stage-weekboc-rbnz-ecb/usdchf-daily-05032016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7406\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7406\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDCHF-DAILY-05032016-1024x509.png\" alt=\"USDCHF DAILY 05032016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"509\" /></a>\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY - Weekly Closing Price: 113.77\r\n\r\n<u><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/central-banks-take-centre-stage-weekboc-rbnz-ecb/usdjpy-daily-05032016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7407\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7407\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDJPY-DAILY-05032016-1024x509.png\" alt=\"USDJPY DAILY 05032016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"509\" /></a></u>\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3: CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nAnother big week for news lies ahead of us.\r\n\r\nWe have three central banks with rate announcements BOC, RBNZ and ECB, and two of them the RBNZ and ECB have press conferences.\r\n\r\nOf late the effectiveness of central bank intervention has been called into question, in particular with the BOJ introduction of negative interest rates. It could be a very choppy week once again.\r\n\r\nThe market has been guilty of late of not really providing an effective follow through. It should be interesting to see on Sunday evening / Monday morning if the reaction to the NFP data follows on into the Asian and European sessions.\r\n\r\nBe savvy…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nTake care,\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nDATE: 5<sup>th</sup> March 2016\r\nBLOG REFERENCE: #191 FREE NEWSLETTER','CENTRAL BANKS TAKE CENTRE STAGE THIS WEEK…BOC, RBNZ and ECB','','publish','open','closed','','central-banks-take-centre-stage-weekboc-rbnz-ecb','','','2016-03-05 13:02:54','2016-03-05 18:02:54','',0,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?p=7416',0,'post','',0),(7417,1,'2016-03-05 13:01:47','2016-03-05 18:01:47','<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li><strong> INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nAfter my last blog, which followed a disastrous week of trading for many reasons I needed a week to consolidate.\r\n\r\nWell, here we are at the end of the week and… I have and I haven’t consolidated. Yes, I have banked some pips but I have also banked more pip losses as well, plus I am currently holding trades that are under water. The trades being held are longer-term these trades that fit with my fundamental views of the longer-term market.\r\n\r\nA week in Forex is a long time and this time next week, all the trades I am holding could reverse direction nicely and I would be well set up. I had these trades going into NFP last Friday, I think I did about an 11 page tweet to subscribers on my thoughts and this, actually followed a detailed email from the previous day with my overview from a macro level on the trades that I was looking to hold. It was touch and go to either close trades and take pain or hold and keep alive in line with convictions. There were two trades that were specifically causing me concern. I initially kept them both open but chose to cover one as the trading day developed. I am having a poor run at the moment and I need to get my mojo back.\r\n\r\nLeaping forward…\r\n\r\nLast week, I had a few comments about the ice storm that cut power in my area and affected over 260,000 homes in and around Montreal (on and off the island). Not that I want to turn this blog into a meteorological report each week, but I could not let it pass to inform readers that if Met. Canada is correct (they are about as good as Stephen Poloz at the BOC most times), from early this week we are returning to positive temperatures not just during the day but also overnight. This means that the snow melts, there is no more shoveling of snow and BBQ times are back.\r\n\r\nFinally, in this section, just to remind you; you could be the next winner of a free PREMIUM SERVICE (SILVER) subscription; if you subscribe to receive this free blog via my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nYou are automatically entered into a free monthly draw, once you’ve subscribed. Each month during 2016 one lucky blog subscriber will receive a free subscription to the PREMIUM SERVICE (SILVER).\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong><strong> </strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>2.1: WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber, fee based trade set-up option for Forex traders regardless of experience or background. I provide traders suggested trades, and some market commentary related to open trades or factors within the overall market that have my interest.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and the various trade styles plus how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nAdditional information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE you will require a PayPal account.\r\n\r\n<u>2.2: PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE THIS MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\nNET PIPS THIS MONTH SO FAR:            -29\r\nNET PIPS THIS YEAR SO FAR:                -161\r\n\r\nNET PIPS 2015        +10,686\r\nNET PIPS 2014        +11,209\r\n\r\n(I trade basically for 10 months a year. I do not trade from mid July through early September or mid December through early January).\r\n\r\nIf you want more data or detail about the performance and the tabs on my website landing page do not answer your questions, contact me directly and I will supply the trading data you require. There are NO secrets. There are many, many spreadsheets detailing performance trade by trade and by trade and by trading style, way too many to place in this blog. If you are interested in the PREMIUM SERVICE and want more information, all you have to do is ask.<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>3.1: LAST WEEK’S NEWS – MY THOUGHTS:</strong>\r\n\r\nAs usual, when you look back on a Non-Farm Payroll week, all of the data that was prior to NFP seems to pale into insignificance as NFP at the end of the week was so dominant.\r\n\r\nThe one thing apart from the economic data that stuck out for me was the price action in gold. It broke into new highs for the year, it took with it Copper and Silver and these precious metals supported the moves higher with the AUD and NZD currencies. From a currency perspective, it will be interesting to see how the RBA and RBNZ react to these moves with the AUD/USD above 0.7350 and NZD/USD above 0.6750. Bear in mind we heard from Mr. Edwards from the RBA recently stating that the RBA felt that fair value was around 0.6500. With regards to the RNBZ, we will hear straight from horses’ mouth on Wednesday this week when “Spinner” Wheeler (RBNZ governor) has an interest rate decision and monetary policy statement.\r\n\r\nWhy was gold so strong?\r\n\r\nI can only think that because of central banks having negative interest rates, institutions are maybe looking at gold instead. It can’t be because they see it as a hedge against inflation… I was laughing when I wrote that last line. It’s above my pay grade but negative interest rates are the only thing that I can think of.\r\n\r\nBack to NFP…\r\n\r\nBlow out numbers once again; except for the fact that hourly earnings are not rising, in fact, they pulled back to a negative number.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">242,000 New Jobs\r\n<em>(Previous reading was revised to 182,000)</em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">4.9% Unemployment Rate\r\n(<em>Previous reading was 4.9%)</em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Average Hourly earnings – February -0.1% and yearly 2.2%\r\n<em>(The previous average hourly earnings were 0.5% and 2.5%)</em></p>\r\nAs I said these were good numbers except for the hourly earnings and show that the U.S. economy is in good shape from a job creation perspective.\r\n\r\nThere was a huge amount of Australian data last week, for the most part very positive which along with precious metals (discussed earlier) has kept the AUD currency well bid. However, as mentioned, this brings with it its own problems for the RBA as they try to balance the very diverse economy, eastern versus western Australia. Who would want to be a central bank governor?\r\n\r\nThe UK had a string of PMi data, all poor, yet the GBP rallied on crap data…excellent… go figure!!\r\n\r\nThe BREXIT discussion rambled on but as more data was released about the consequences plus the names of who is pro and who is not pro BREXIT some stability fell into place<strong>. </strong>I will guarantee you one thing. No matter how heated the debate gets in the coming weeks and months in the UK, there will be no references to hair, spray tans, sizes of hands, wetting ones trousers, sweating, choking, con artists, liars, losers, fakes, phony’s, scams or penis sizes when the TV debates commence.\r\n\r\nPoliticians around this planet may in the main, be self-serving, protectionist vote grabbers. But there is just NOTHING to compare to the American republican parties, dysfunctional gang of non-performing immature, non-presidential numpties, who are nothing better than a group of 6-7 years school kids.\r\n\r\nThe circus, reality TV show that it is, is an embarrassment to democracy and quite frankly, is it any wonder that so many people are apathetic to politics and should they decide to vote it would probably be as a protest vote. In my opinion, the voters do not win in the long term. The only winners are the TV stations via ratings and they simply do not boldly question or highlight the fact that this behavior is unacceptable. As for the Republican Party establishment, they are presiding over an implosion.\r\n\r\nI only mention this in the blog because we are going to see huge uncertainty in the U.S. market moving forward. The circus might amuse a little with the antics on the TV screen at the moment, but there really is a serious side to consider.\r\n\r\nMoving on and finally….\r\n\r\nMario Draghi dropped a huge hint during last week (Tuesday) that the kitchen sink was about to be thrown at the market and we shall see exactly how big the sink is this Thursday at the ECB Press Conference. I am covering this in the next section.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>3.2: WHAT’S ON MY MIND:</strong>\r\n\r\nCENTRAL BANKS TAKE CENTRE STAGE THIS WEEK…BOC, RBNZ and ECB\r\n\r\nHappy days are here again…\r\n\r\nThis week we have the BOC, RBNZ and ECB front and centre. If I were a stand up comic, there is so much material here based around what we will be told as being the central bank view on all things local and worldwide. I will try to keep this light with some facts to give an overview of how I see things.\r\n\r\n<u>BOC: Stephen Poloz (Governor) – Wednesday 9<sup>th</sup> March:</u>\r\n\r\nI think my views are well documented about the Canadian economy and what I think that the BOC will do / has to do moving forward.\r\n\r\nLet me do a quick recap; for the past year the CAD currency has for the most part been a proxy for the price of WTi (oil). Many, mainly Canadian government officials, see this as rather unfair as the Canadian economy is much more than just the Alberta sands. However, it is what it is.\r\n\r\nLast year there was a Canadian general election. Long time Prime Minister, Stephen Harper was ousted in favour of younger go-getter Justin Trudeau promising to spend, spend, spend on infrastructure, legalize marijuana and at the same time stick two fingers high up into the air with regards to balancing the budget.\r\n\r\nStephen Poloz last cut interest rates on 15<sup>th</sup> July 2015 by 0.25%. Since that date he has been sitting back and saying that the effects of the rate cut have yet to be seen to its full extent in the Canadian economy. He has also resisted further action due to a government election and budget from the newly elected Liberal Party under Justin Trudeau. Time and reasons for non-action are running out.\r\n\r\nThe initial budget from Justin Trudeau is due March 22<sup>nd</sup> and Trudeau has already stated that there will be no “big ticket” bazookas. Canadian GDP is like most G7 countries, falling backwards instead of moving upwards.\r\n\r\nSoon it will be over to the BOC and Poloz to take action.\r\n\r\nMy thoughts are:\r\n\r\nThe BOC will probably stand still this month and leave rates unchanged at 0.50% in view of the Trudeau’s budget. This is further supported by the fact that there is only a rate announcement this week, no press conference. (On the basis that I have been calling for a rate cut the last two meetings and got it wrong back to back, get ready for a third error and be ready to trade long the USD/CAD!!).\r\n\r\nWhilst I think in Canada there will be rate cuts in the near future to help stimulate the economy, these will take place after the Prime Minister’s Budget. I also think that negative interest rates and QE (Quantitative Easing) will also be on the cards.\r\n\r\nThe psyche and culture of Canadians is in my opinion, laid-back, and sometimes head in the sand to ignore reality at times, the latter definitely applies to Stephen Poloz as far as I am concerned.\r\n\r\n<u>RBNZ: Graeme Wheeler (Governor) – Wednesday 9<sup>th</sup> March:</u>\r\n\r\nOver the past couple of years it has been easier to win on the 649 lottery in Canada, than predict the RBNZ. They say one thing and their actions say the opposite lots of times.\r\n\r\nAt the moment the NZD/USD is attempting to break out above 0.6750 / 0.6800. One would not have thought that Wheeler and his table of accountants would be cracking open the champagne on this news.\r\n\r\nReading the comments over the past few months, the RBNZ appears to be relying heavily on the NZD depreciating to help bring inflation back to their 2% target. Well, Graeme me old pal, hows that working out for ya! – not very well at the moment I would say.\r\n\r\nIn addition, we have the PBOC in easing mode, the BOJ in easing mode and Mario Draghi at the ECB about to throw his mother-in-law, Granny and the kitchen sink at the market to try to fight DEFLATION and get some growth into the EUROZONE.\r\n\r\nJust to keep a level playing field the RBNZ needs to ease… will they?\r\n\r\nThe RBA stood firm last week, which of course doesn’t mean that the RBNZ has to do the same. But a 0.50% cut to 2.0% would send a clear and unambiguous message that the RBNZ means business. It may need such a bold statement of intent instead of the usual pussyfooting about game that the RBNZ usual play. We should however, be ready for just more jawboning.\r\n\r\nWhatever the RBNZ does, if it\'s a rate cut they have to be firm with the commentary as well. In the past they have been fecking useless doing this. My dog Ozzy is very single minded, if he could talk he would have no problem nailing this.\r\n\r\n<u>ECB: Mario Draghi (President) – Thursday 10<sup>th</sup> March:</u>\r\n\r\nThe prime news event this week is the ECB Press Conference with Mario Draghi. God love him, he has Merkel, Wiedmann and Schaeuble to contend with. I am sure these three amigos in Draghi’s eyes are like annoying zits that just keep coming back every time you think that you’ve squeezed the heebie-jesus out of them.\r\n\r\nMario Draghi is front and centre. He has been firing bullets at the EUROZONE problems every since the “whatever it takes” speech in London.\r\n\r\nWhat does he have left?\r\n\r\nI am off the Jack Daniels at the moment, so my creative thinking cap was diminished slightly putting some thoughts into this.\r\n\r\nLast week, Draghi stated that the inflation trends for the EUROZONE were still weak; this is like the nod in central banker language that as traders we should get ready and be prepared.\r\n\r\nHere is my list that I think he will look at and he may add none of these, some of these or all of these, only time will tell.\r\n\r\nIncreasing the negative interest rate at the ECB higher from the existing 0.30%. As far as I can see the feeling is that by the year-end the ECB target is 0.50%. Draghi may go the whole way now, or add another 0.10% making the new overnight rate -0.40%\r\n\r\nIncreasing / expanding the PSPP (Public Sector Purchase Programme) known more widely as QE (Quantitative Easing). He has a few ways to do this, either simply increasing the current scheme purchases each month from the current €60 billion a month at the moment to a higher volume. The problem is he will run out of assets to buy sooner, in fact as far as I can see quite quickly. Alternatively, he could broaden the scope of purchasing to include say, “Non performing loans” and riskier assets and there are plenty of them languishing in France, Spain, Italy, Greece and Portugal and at the same time increase the quantity of purchases each month (The double whammy approach).\r\n\r\nI have read that he may introduce a new and updated version of the LTRO to target achieving greater liquidity. Although, I am not entirely certain what this would be and how this would work.\r\n\r\nHe could also announce a time extension to the overall programme, maybe another full year of support. This could be met with groans from the German contingent in the ECB governing council but Draghi needs a real full-on bazooka.\r\n\r\nWhatever he does, he needs it to be jaw dropping and once and for all send a clear message. The EUROZONE is very close to dropping into recession and with BREXIT fears in the air he has to act strongly with conviction as far as I am concerned. Failure is not an option as the consequences are not worth thinking about.\r\n\r\nFinally, he could also directly intervene in the currency markets. Sounds a bit out there but wow, would that make a statement… direct intervention. That would give Merkel, Schaeuble and Wiedmann nose bleeds at the mere mention!! Would you not love to watch them pour out their breakfast cornflakes as Mario Draghi announced direct money market currency intervention?\r\n\r\nWe shall wait and see what he does and it will be eagerly awaited, of that there is no doubt.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) EXCLUSIVE CONTENT:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(This area contains exclusive content for PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) subscribers)\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n	<li><strong> COMING UP THIS WEEK:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5.1: THIS WEEK’S FOREX NEWS THAT INTERESTS ME:</u>\r\n\r\n(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market other than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to <a href=\"http://www.forexfactory.com\">www.forexfactory.com</a> and <a href=\"http://www.tradingeconomics.com\">www.tradingeconomics.com</a> for a more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).\r\nSUNDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: CNY – Trade Balance.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: CAD – BOC Interest Rate Announcement.\r\nWEDNESDAY: NZD – RBNZ Interest Rate Statement &amp; Press Conference.\r\nWEDNESDAY: CNY - CPi.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: ECB – Press Conference and Rate Statement.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: CAD – Employment Data.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>5.1: THE USD MAJORS SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS: </u>\r\n\r\n(In this section I have as usual kept my charts as minimalist as possible. With regards to charting in my opinion less is more!! I hope that they are clear. All readers regardless of level of experience should be able to follow my thoughts from my comments to the levels on the charts with ease)\r\n\r\nMy comments are contained on the charts. If you have difficulty getting them to expand please let me know. Sometimes word press is difficult.\r\n\r\nEUR/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.1004\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/central-banks-take-centre-stage-weekboc-rbnz-ecb/eurusd-daily-05032016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7402\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7402\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/EURUSD-DAILY-05032016-1024x509.png\" alt=\"EURUSD DAILY 05032016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"509\" /></a>\r\n\r\nGBP/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.4227\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/central-banks-take-centre-stage-weekboc-rbnz-ecb/gbpusd-daily-05032016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7403\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7403\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/GBPUSD-DAILY-05032016-1024x509.png\" alt=\"GBPUSD DAILY 05032016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"509\" /></a>\r\n\r\nAUD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.7436\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/central-banks-take-centre-stage-weekboc-rbnz-ecb/audusd-daily-05032016-3/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7401\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7401\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/AUDUSD-DAILY-05032016-2-1024x509.png\" alt=\"AUDUSD DAILY 05032016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"509\" /></a>\r\n\r\nNZD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.6818\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/central-banks-take-centre-stage-weekboc-rbnz-ecb/nzdusd-daily-05032016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7404\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7404\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/NZDUSD-DAILY-05032016-1024x509.png\" alt=\"NZDUSD DAILY 05032016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"509\" /></a>\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.3312\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/central-banks-take-centre-stage-weekboc-rbnz-ecb/usdcad-daily-05032016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7405\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7405\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDCAD-DAILY-05032016-1024x509.png\" alt=\"USDCAD DAILY 05032016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"509\" /></a>\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF - Weekly Closing Price: 0.9929\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/central-banks-take-centre-stage-weekboc-rbnz-ecb/usdchf-daily-05032016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7406\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7406\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDCHF-DAILY-05032016-1024x509.png\" alt=\"USDCHF DAILY 05032016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"509\" /></a>\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY - Weekly Closing Price: 113.77\r\n\r\n<u><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/central-banks-take-centre-stage-weekboc-rbnz-ecb/usdjpy-daily-05032016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7407\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7407\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDJPY-DAILY-05032016-1024x509.png\" alt=\"USDJPY DAILY 05032016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"509\" /></a></u>\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3: CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nAnother big week for news lies ahead of us.\r\n\r\nWe have three central banks with rate announcements BOC, RBNZ and ECB, and two of them the RBNZD and ECB have press conferences.\r\n\r\nOf late the effectiveness of central bank intervention has been called into question, in particular with the BOJ introduction of negative interest rates. It could be a very choppy week once again.\r\n\r\nThe market has been guilty of late of not really providing an effective follow through. It should be interesting to see on Sunday evening / Monday morning if the reaction to the NFP data follows on into the Asian and European sessions.\r\n\r\nBe savvy…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nTake care,\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nDATE: 5<sup>th</sup> March 2016\r\nBLOG REFERENCE: #191 FREE NEWSLETTER','CENTRAL BANKS TAKE CENTRE STAGE THIS WEEK…BOC, RBNZ and ECB','','inherit','closed','closed','','7416-revision-v1','','','2016-03-05 13:01:47','2016-03-05 18:01:47','',7416,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/7416-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(7418,1,'2016-03-05 13:02:35','2016-03-05 18:02:35','<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li><strong> INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nAfter my last blog, which followed a disastrous week of trading for many reasons I needed a week to consolidate.\r\n\r\nWell, here we are at the end of the week and… I have and I haven’t consolidated. Yes, I have banked some pips but I have also banked more pip losses as well, plus I am currently holding trades that are under water. The trades being held are longer-term these trades that fit with my fundamental views of the longer-term market.\r\n\r\nA week in Forex is a long time and this time next week, all the trades I am holding could reverse direction nicely and I would be well set up. I had these trades going into NFP last Friday, I think I did about an 11 page tweet to subscribers on my thoughts and this, actually followed a detailed email from the previous day with my overview from a macro level on the trades that I was looking to hold. It was touch and go to either close trades and take pain or hold and keep alive in line with convictions. There were two trades that were specifically causing me concern. I initially kept them both open but chose to cover one as the trading day developed. I am having a poor run at the moment and I need to get my mojo back.\r\n\r\nLeaping forward…\r\n\r\nLast week, I had a few comments about the ice storm that cut power in my area and affected over 260,000 homes in and around Montreal (on and off the island). Not that I want to turn this blog into a meteorological report each week, but I could not let it pass to inform readers that if Met. Canada is correct (they are about as good as Stephen Poloz at the BOC most times), from early this week we are returning to positive temperatures not just during the day but also overnight. This means that the snow melts, there is no more shoveling of snow and BBQ times are back.\r\n\r\nFinally, in this section, just to remind you; you could be the next winner of a free PREMIUM SERVICE (SILVER) subscription; if you subscribe to receive this free blog via my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nYou are automatically entered into a free monthly draw, once you’ve subscribed. Each month during 2016 one lucky blog subscriber will receive a free subscription to the PREMIUM SERVICE (SILVER).\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong><strong> </strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>2.1: WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber, fee based trade set-up option for Forex traders regardless of experience or background. I provide traders suggested trades, and some market commentary related to open trades or factors within the overall market that have my interest.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and the various trade styles plus how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nAdditional information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE you will require a PayPal account.\r\n\r\n<u>2.2: PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE THIS MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\nNET PIPS THIS MONTH SO FAR:            -29\r\nNET PIPS THIS YEAR SO FAR:                -161\r\n\r\nNET PIPS 2015        +10,686\r\nNET PIPS 2014        +11,209\r\n\r\n(I trade basically for 10 months a year. I do not trade from mid July through early September or mid December through early January).\r\n\r\nIf you want more data or detail about the performance and the tabs on my website landing page do not answer your questions, contact me directly and I will supply the trading data you require. There are NO secrets. There are many, many spreadsheets detailing performance trade by trade and by trade and by trading style, way too many to place in this blog. If you are interested in the PREMIUM SERVICE and want more information, all you have to do is ask.<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>3.1: LAST WEEK’S NEWS – MY THOUGHTS:</strong>\r\n\r\nAs usual, when you look back on a Non-Farm Payroll week, all of the data that was prior to NFP seems to pale into insignificance as NFP at the end of the week was so dominant.\r\n\r\nThe one thing apart from the economic data that stuck out for me was the price action in gold. It broke into new highs for the year, it took with it Copper and Silver and these precious metals supported the moves higher with the AUD and NZD currencies. From a currency perspective, it will be interesting to see how the RBA and RBNZ react to these moves with the AUD/USD above 0.7350 and NZD/USD above 0.6750. Bear in mind we heard from Mr. Edwards from the RBA recently stating that the RBA felt that fair value was around 0.6500. With regards to the RNBZ, we will hear straight from horses’ mouth on Wednesday this week when “Spinner” Wheeler (RBNZ governor) has an interest rate decision and monetary policy statement.\r\n\r\nWhy was gold so strong?\r\n\r\nI can only think that because of central banks having negative interest rates, institutions are maybe looking at gold instead. It can’t be because they see it as a hedge against inflation… I was laughing when I wrote that last line. It’s above my pay grade but negative interest rates are the only thing that I can think of.\r\n\r\nBack to NFP…\r\n\r\nBlow out numbers once again; except for the fact that hourly earnings are not rising, in fact, they pulled back to a negative number.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">242,000 New Jobs\r\n<em>(Previous reading was revised to 182,000)</em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">4.9% Unemployment Rate\r\n(<em>Previous reading was 4.9%)</em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Average Hourly earnings – February -0.1% and yearly 2.2%\r\n<em>(The previous average hourly earnings were 0.5% and 2.5%)</em></p>\r\nAs I said these were good numbers except for the hourly earnings and show that the U.S. economy is in good shape from a job creation perspective.\r\n\r\nThere was a huge amount of Australian data last week, for the most part very positive which along with precious metals (discussed earlier) has kept the AUD currency well bid. However, as mentioned, this brings with it its own problems for the RBA as they try to balance the very diverse economy, eastern versus western Australia. Who would want to be a central bank governor?\r\n\r\nThe UK had a string of PMi data, all poor, yet the GBP rallied on crap data…excellent… go figure!!\r\n\r\nThe BREXIT discussion rambled on but as more data was released about the consequences plus the names of who is pro and who is not pro BREXIT some stability fell into place<strong>. </strong>I will guarantee you one thing. No matter how heated the debate gets in the coming weeks and months in the UK, there will be no references to hair, spray tans, sizes of hands, wetting ones trousers, sweating, choking, con artists, liars, losers, fakes, phony’s, scams or penis sizes when the TV debates commence.\r\n\r\nPoliticians around this planet may in the main, be self-serving, protectionist vote grabbers. But there is just NOTHING to compare to the American republican parties, dysfunctional gang of non-performing immature, non-presidential numpties, who are nothing better than a group of 6-7 years school kids.\r\n\r\nThe circus, reality TV show that it is, is an embarrassment to democracy and quite frankly, is it any wonder that so many people are apathetic to politics and should they decide to vote it would probably be as a protest vote. In my opinion, the voters do not win in the long term. The only winners are the TV stations via ratings and they simply do not boldly question or highlight the fact that this behavior is unacceptable. As for the Republican Party establishment, they are presiding over an implosion.\r\n\r\nI only mention this in the blog because we are going to see huge uncertainty in the U.S. market moving forward. The circus might amuse a little with the antics on the TV screen at the moment, but there really is a serious side to consider.\r\n\r\nMoving on and finally….\r\n\r\nMario Draghi dropped a huge hint during last week (Tuesday) that the kitchen sink was about to be thrown at the market and we shall see exactly how big the sink is this Thursday at the ECB Press Conference. I am covering this in the next section.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>3.2: WHAT’S ON MY MIND:</strong>\r\n\r\nCENTRAL BANKS TAKE CENTRE STAGE THIS WEEK…BOC, RBNZ and ECB\r\n\r\nHappy days are here again…\r\n\r\nThis week we have the BOC, RBNZ and ECB front and centre. If I were a stand up comic, there is so much material here based around what we will be told as being the central bank view on all things local and worldwide. I will try to keep this light with some facts to give an overview of how I see things.\r\n\r\n<u>BOC: Stephen Poloz (Governor) – Wednesday 9<sup>th</sup> March:</u>\r\n\r\nI think my views are well documented about the Canadian economy and what I think that the BOC will do / has to do moving forward.\r\n\r\nLet me do a quick recap; for the past year the CAD currency has for the most part been a proxy for the price of WTi (oil). Many, mainly Canadian government officials, see this as rather unfair as the Canadian economy is much more than just the Alberta sands. However, it is what it is.\r\n\r\nLast year there was a Canadian general election. Long time Prime Minister, Stephen Harper was ousted in favour of younger go-getter Justin Trudeau promising to spend, spend, spend on infrastructure, legalize marijuana and at the same time stick two fingers high up into the air with regards to balancing the budget.\r\n\r\nStephen Poloz last cut interest rates on 15<sup>th</sup> July 2015 by 0.25%. Since that date he has been sitting back and saying that the effects of the rate cut have yet to be seen to its full extent in the Canadian economy. He has also resisted further action due to a government election and budget from the newly elected Liberal Party under Justin Trudeau. Time and reasons for non-action are running out.\r\n\r\nThe initial budget from Justin Trudeau is due March 22<sup>nd</sup> and Trudeau has already stated that there will be no “big ticket” bazookas. Canadian GDP is like most G7 countries, falling backwards instead of moving upwards.\r\n\r\nSoon it will be over to the BOC and Poloz to take action.\r\n\r\nMy thoughts are:\r\n\r\nThe BOC will probably stand still this month and leave rates unchanged at 0.50% in view of the Trudeau’s budget. This is further supported by the fact that there is only a rate announcement this week, no press conference. (On the basis that I have been calling for a rate cut the last two meetings and got it wrong back to back, get ready for a third error and be ready to trade long the USD/CAD!!).\r\n\r\nWhilst I think in Canada there will be rate cuts in the near future to help stimulate the economy, these will take place after the Prime Minister’s Budget. I also think that negative interest rates and QE (Quantitative Easing) will also be on the cards.\r\n\r\nThe psyche and culture of Canadians is in my opinion, laid-back, and sometimes head in the sand to ignore reality at times, the latter definitely applies to Stephen Poloz as far as I am concerned.\r\n\r\n<u>RBNZ: Graeme Wheeler (Governor) – Wednesday 9<sup>th</sup> March:</u>\r\n\r\nOver the past couple of years it has been easier to win on the 649 lottery in Canada, than predict the RBNZ. They say one thing and their actions say the opposite lots of times.\r\n\r\nAt the moment the NZD/USD is attempting to break out above 0.6750 / 0.6800. One would not have thought that Wheeler and his table of accountants would be cracking open the champagne on this news.\r\n\r\nReading the comments over the past few months, the RBNZ appears to be relying heavily on the NZD depreciating to help bring inflation back to their 2% target. Well, Graeme me old pal, hows that working out for ya! – not very well at the moment I would say.\r\n\r\nIn addition, we have the PBOC in easing mode, the BOJ in easing mode and Mario Draghi at the ECB about to throw his mother-in-law, Granny and the kitchen sink at the market to try to fight DEFLATION and get some growth into the EUROZONE.\r\n\r\nJust to keep a level playing field the RBNZ needs to ease… will they?\r\n\r\nThe RBA stood firm last week, which of course doesn’t mean that the RBNZ has to do the same. But a 0.50% cut to 2.0% would send a clear and unambiguous message that the RBNZ means business. It may need such a bold statement of intent instead of the usual pussyfooting about game that the RBNZ usual play. We should however, be ready for just more jawboning.\r\n\r\nWhatever the RBNZ does, if it\'s a rate cut they have to be firm with the commentary as well. In the past they have been fecking useless doing this. My dog Ozzy is very single minded, if he could talk he would have no problem nailing this.\r\n\r\n<u>ECB: Mario Draghi (President) – Thursday 10<sup>th</sup> March:</u>\r\n\r\nThe prime news event this week is the ECB Press Conference with Mario Draghi. God love him, he has Merkel, Wiedmann and Schaeuble to contend with. I am sure these three amigos in Draghi’s eyes are like annoying zits that just keep coming back every time you think that you’ve squeezed the heebie-jesus out of them.\r\n\r\nMario Draghi is front and centre. He has been firing bullets at the EUROZONE problems every since the “whatever it takes” speech in London.\r\n\r\nWhat does he have left?\r\n\r\nI am off the Jack Daniels at the moment, so my creative thinking cap was diminished slightly putting some thoughts into this.\r\n\r\nLast week, Draghi stated that the inflation trends for the EUROZONE were still weak; this is like the nod in central banker language that as traders we should get ready and be prepared.\r\n\r\nHere is my list that I think he will look at and he may add none of these, some of these or all of these, only time will tell.\r\n\r\nIncreasing the negative interest rate at the ECB higher from the existing 0.30%. As far as I can see the feeling is that by the year-end the ECB target is 0.50%. Draghi may go the whole way now, or add another 0.10% making the new overnight rate -0.40%\r\n\r\nIncreasing / expanding the PSPP (Public Sector Purchase Programme) known more widely as QE (Quantitative Easing). He has a few ways to do this, either simply increasing the current scheme purchases each month from the current €60 billion a month at the moment to a higher volume. The problem is he will run out of assets to buy sooner, in fact as far as I can see quite quickly. Alternatively, he could broaden the scope of purchasing to include say, “Non performing loans” and riskier assets and there are plenty of them languishing in France, Spain, Italy, Greece and Portugal and at the same time increase the quantity of purchases each month (The double whammy approach).\r\n\r\nI have read that he may introduce a new and updated version of the LTRO to target achieving greater liquidity. Although, I am not entirely certain what this would be and how this would work.\r\n\r\nHe could also announce a time extension to the overall programme, maybe another full year of support. This could be met with groans from the German contingent in the ECB governing council but Draghi needs a real full-on bazooka.\r\n\r\nWhatever he does, he needs it to be jaw dropping and once and for all send a clear message. The EUROZONE is very close to dropping into recession and with BREXIT fears in the air he has to act strongly with conviction as far as I am concerned. Failure is not an option as the consequences are not worth thinking about.\r\n\r\nFinally, he could also directly intervene in the currency markets. Sounds a bit out there but wow, would that make a statement… direct intervention. That would give Merkel, Schaeuble and Wiedmann nose bleeds at the mere mention!! Would you not love to watch them pour out their breakfast cornflakes as Mario Draghi announced direct money market currency intervention?\r\n\r\nWe shall wait and see what he does and it will be eagerly awaited, of that there is no doubt.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) EXCLUSIVE CONTENT:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(This area contains exclusive content for PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) subscribers)\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n	<li><strong> COMING UP THIS WEEK:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5.1: THIS WEEK’S FOREX NEWS THAT INTERESTS ME:</u>\r\n\r\n(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market other than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to <a href=\"http://www.forexfactory.com\">www.forexfactory.com</a> and <a href=\"http://www.tradingeconomics.com\">www.tradingeconomics.com</a> for a more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).\r\nSUNDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: CNY – Trade Balance.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: CAD – BOC Interest Rate Announcement.\r\nWEDNESDAY: NZD – RBNZ Interest Rate Statement &amp; Press Conference.\r\nWEDNESDAY: CNY - CPi.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: ECB – Press Conference and Rate Statement.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: CAD – Employment Data.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>5.1: THE USD MAJORS SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS: </u>\r\n\r\n(In this section I have as usual kept my charts as minimalist as possible. With regards to charting in my opinion less is more!! I hope that they are clear. All readers regardless of level of experience should be able to follow my thoughts from my comments to the levels on the charts with ease)\r\n\r\nMy comments are contained on the charts. If you have difficulty getting them to expand please let me know. Sometimes word press is difficult.\r\n\r\nEUR/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.1004\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/central-banks-take-centre-stage-weekboc-rbnz-ecb/eurusd-daily-05032016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7402\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7402\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/EURUSD-DAILY-05032016-1024x509.png\" alt=\"EURUSD DAILY 05032016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"509\" /></a>\r\n\r\nGBP/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.4227\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/central-banks-take-centre-stage-weekboc-rbnz-ecb/gbpusd-daily-05032016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7403\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7403\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/GBPUSD-DAILY-05032016-1024x509.png\" alt=\"GBPUSD DAILY 05032016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"509\" /></a>\r\n\r\nAUD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.7436\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/central-banks-take-centre-stage-weekboc-rbnz-ecb/audusd-daily-05032016-3/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7401\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7401\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/AUDUSD-DAILY-05032016-2-1024x509.png\" alt=\"AUDUSD DAILY 05032016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"509\" /></a>\r\n\r\nNZD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.6818\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/central-banks-take-centre-stage-weekboc-rbnz-ecb/nzdusd-daily-05032016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7404\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7404\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/NZDUSD-DAILY-05032016-1024x509.png\" alt=\"NZDUSD DAILY 05032016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"509\" /></a>\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.3312\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/central-banks-take-centre-stage-weekboc-rbnz-ecb/usdcad-daily-05032016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7405\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7405\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDCAD-DAILY-05032016-1024x509.png\" alt=\"USDCAD DAILY 05032016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"509\" /></a>\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF - Weekly Closing Price: 0.9929\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/central-banks-take-centre-stage-weekboc-rbnz-ecb/usdchf-daily-05032016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7406\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7406\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDCHF-DAILY-05032016-1024x509.png\" alt=\"USDCHF DAILY 05032016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"509\" /></a>\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY - Weekly Closing Price: 113.77\r\n\r\n<u><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/central-banks-take-centre-stage-weekboc-rbnz-ecb/usdjpy-daily-05032016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7407\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7407\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDJPY-DAILY-05032016-1024x509.png\" alt=\"USDJPY DAILY 05032016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"509\" /></a></u>\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3: CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nAnother big week for news lies ahead of us.\r\n\r\nWe have three central banks with rate announcements BOC, RBNZ and ECB, and two of them the RBNZ and ECB have press conferences.\r\n\r\nOf late the effectiveness of central bank intervention has been called into question, in particular with the BOJ introduction of negative interest rates. It could be a very choppy week once again.\r\n\r\nThe market has been guilty of late of not really providing an effective follow through. It should be interesting to see on Sunday evening / Monday morning if the reaction to the NFP data follows on into the Asian and European sessions.\r\n\r\nBe savvy…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nTake care,\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nDATE: 5<sup>th</sup> March 2016\r\nBLOG REFERENCE: #191 FREE NEWSLETTER','CENTRAL BANKS TAKE CENTRE STAGE THIS WEEK…BOC, RBNZ and ECB','','inherit','closed','closed','','7416-revision-v1','','','2016-03-05 13:02:35','2016-03-05 18:02:35','',7416,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/7416-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(7420,1,'2016-03-11 14:42:08','2016-03-11 19:42:08','','PS PERF1 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06:40:36','2016-03-12 11:40:36','','AUDUSD M 12032016','','inherit','open','closed','','audusd-m-12032016','','','2016-03-12 07:55:34','2016-03-12 12:55:34','',7434,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/AUDUSD-M-12032016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(7428,1,'2016-03-12 06:40:39','2016-03-12 11:40:39','','EURUSD M 12032016','','inherit','open','closed','','eurusd-m-12032016','','','2016-03-12 07:55:14','2016-03-12 12:55:14','',7434,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/EURUSD-M-12032016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(7429,1,'2016-03-12 06:40:41','2016-03-12 11:40:41','','GBPUSD M 12032016','','inherit','open','closed','','gbpusd-m-12032016','','','2016-03-12 07:55:26','2016-03-12 12:55:26','',7434,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/GBPUSD-M-12032016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(7430,1,'2016-03-12 06:40:43','2016-03-12 11:40:43','','NZDUSD M 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12:56:18','',7434,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDJPY-M-12032016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(7434,1,'2016-03-12 07:58:15','2016-03-12 12:58:15','<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li><strong> INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nPrior to the past week, the previous two weeks of trading were painful for me. From the Boris Johnson BREXIT sell off in the cable, which was followed by severe ice storms which left me without either power or any ISP’s operating for two days. It took time to re-focus and gather one’s thoughts / patterns again.\r\n\r\nThankfully, this past week was a good one. In “my week in hell” All of my PREMIUM SERVICE pip gains for 2016 were erased and last week I replaced 75% of them. I am on a roll as they say in Vegas! I am still confident of generating 10,000 pips this year as I did in 2014 and 2015.\r\n\r\nAdding in my weekly weather check…. We are thawing here, just off the island of Montreal. Soon the snow and ice will be gone. My wife and I can walk the dogs again without fear of being run over by snow ploughs, and I can trade from the terrace in the sun close to a fully functional BBQ. Yes, the summer routine should be back in play very soon once again, with a bit of luck.\r\n\r\nFinally, in this section, just to remind you; you could be the next winner of a free PREMIUM SERVICE (SILVER) subscription; if you subscribe to receive this free blog via my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nYou are automatically entered into a free monthly draw, once you’ve subscribed. Each month during 2016 one lucky blog subscriber will receive a free subscription to the PREMIUM SERVICE (SILVER).\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>2.1: WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber, fee based trade set-up option for Forex traders regardless of experience or background. I provide traders suggested trades, and some market commentary related to open trades or factors within the overall market that have my interest.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and the various trade styles plus how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nAdditional information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE you will require a PayPal account.\r\n\r\n<u>2.2: PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE THIS MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\nNET PIPS THIS MONTH SO FAR:            +1,546\r\nNET PIPS THIS YEAR SO FAR:                +1,414\r\n\r\nNET PIPS 2015        +10,686\r\nNET PIPS 2014        +11,209\r\n(I trade basically for 10 months a year. I do not trade from mid July through early September or mid December through early January).\r\n\r\nIf you want more data or detail about the performance and the tabs on my website landing page do not answer your questions, contact me directly and I will supply the trading data you require. There are NO secrets. There are many, many spreadsheets detailing performance trade by trade and by trade and by trading style, way too many to place in this blog. If you are interested in the PREMIUM SERVICE and want more information, all you have to do is ask.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>3.1: LAST WEEK’S NEWS – MY THOUGHTS:</strong>\r\n\r\nWhat a feck of a week we just had.\r\n\r\nJesus, Mary and Joseph, I said last week that “CENTRAL BANKS TAKE CENTRE STAGE”, even one of my heroes, Mick Jagger, would have had difficulty managing and working that stage.\r\n\r\nWe had the BOC, RBNZ and ECB all dominating Forex traders minds regarding trading and to set the week off just prior to the BOC statement we had Mark Carney with testimony in front of a Treasury Select Committee hearing where Carney was talking about the BREXIT… deep joy and what fun.\r\n\r\nMy review of these four events is as follows: -\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUK TREASURY SELECT COMMITTEE HEARING:\r\n\r\nMy first comment about this was how awfully, “awfully” the chaps were. There was none of the GOP debate nonsense of small hands, calling people liars, chokers, no wetting one’s trousers’, no spray tans and the bible never came up once. The most heated it got was when Euro-skeptic MP Jacob Rees-Mogg addressed Carney with a “with due respect”.\r\n\r\nYou have got to love old blighty, the U.S. has Ted Cruz, Bernie Sanders, Donald Trump, Mitt Romney and Little Marco… the Brits have a Jacob Rees-Mogg, married to a Helena de Chair with a sibling named Annunziata Rees-Mogg. Bollocks to the U.S., the Brits have a history and they have names that age like a good bottle of Corton, which, is in complete contrast to the bottle of BUD comparison of the Teds, Bernie’s, Mitts and Donald’s of this world. I mean what sex is that sibling, it sounds female but is it? However, Jacob and Helena have a son named Tom Wentworth Somerset Dunstan Rees-Mogg, I would like to see how VISA and MasterCard cope with that!\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nThe 3 hours or so of questions and answers were the usual toing and froing that one sees in the UK. No rambles of statements pretending to be questions that Janet Yellen faces when she is giving her testimony on Capital Hill.\r\n\r\nCarney was accused of being pro-EU and he stood his ground. He had apparently not conducted through the BOE any scenarios of effects should the BREXIT occur. Brave man, however, I do not believe in a million years that not one single paper has been produced inside the BOE with what their strategies are.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nBOC:\r\n\r\nNo press conference this time and guess what? All is just fecking brilliant here in Canada. The snows are melting exposing potholes all over the roads here in Quebec. The mass of concrete that is so heavy in the crumbling infrastructure of Montreal, crumbles away some more. We had a massive sinkhole this week in Montreal. Jobs are disappearing from the prosperous provinces of Alberta and British Columbia. The chances of a housing bubble in Vancouver and Toronto are still there, prices are not giving up. However, from the thick pile cushioned carpets inside the BOC all are warm and cuddly.\r\n\r\nStephen Poloz is banking on Justin Trudeau’s first budget on the 22<sup>nd</sup> March to provide fiscal stimulus to cure all the issues facing the Canadian economy. Lets see how that goes.\r\n\r\nFor now rates are on hold.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nRBNZ:\r\n\r\nGraeme Wheeler in a market surprise event cut interest rates by 0.25%. He promised more should matters Kiwi not improve. I notice that another 0.25% has been penciled in prior to the completion of Q2.\r\n\r\nThe one thing I noticed from reading the statement and listening to the press conference and parliament speech was the number of times China was mentioned. I don\'t think that Wheeler is planning a vacation, more just shitt**g his pants as China is New Zealand’s largest trading partner and the slowdown and hard landing that we all know is coming is starting to bite, and bite hard.\r\n\r\nSelling the NZD on spikes would seem to be a great trade for the time being.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nECB:\r\n\r\nWTF! - Draghi throws the kitchen sink in. He did not hold back and instead of the EUR weakening it strengthened. It shot up so fast off 1.0820, like a rat up a drain pipe, and it rallied from 1.0820 to over 1.1200, 4 cents in one session an unbelievable move.\r\n\r\nDraghi cut, added, added some more stimuli and at the end basically fecked up by saying that\'s about it, no more scope, nothing more to do now. At that point the EUR/USD and crosses spiked. I watched not believing the squeeze that took place.\r\n\r\nWho would be Draghi pouring out his fruit loops this morning reading all the media coverage about the press conference? Wiedmann at the Bundesbank, will be handing Mario a huge slice of I told you so soon, if he hasn’t already done so.\r\n\r\nWhat happened though has much wider implications, which I will look at later in the blog. The impact of post ECB has wider implications for Central Banks, Governments will take note, and, it filters all the way down to us Forex Traders on how we approach the markets moving forward.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>3.2: WHAT’S ON MY MIND:</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>IF NOT MONETARY POLICY… THEN WHAT?</strong>\r\n(This is a line taken from “IN DEFENCE OF MONETARY POLICY” written by Vitor Constancio, Vice President of the ECB. It was written the day following the latest ECB Press Conference)</p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe latest ECB press conference was the second one from which the markets poo-pooed the ECB stimulus and the single currency strengthened instead of weakening. One occasion is a freak; the second is a pattern… but why?\r\n\r\nDraghi unleashed aggressive monetary stimulus.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Refinancing Rate cut from 0% to 0.05%.</strong>\r\n<strong>Overnight deposit negative rates increased from -0.3% to -0.4%.</strong>\r\n<strong>QE increased to €80 billion per month from €60 billion per month.</strong>\r\n<strong> New 4 year TLTRO’s.</strong>\r\n<strong> Asset Purchases to now include Corporate Bonds</strong>\r\n<strong> He then also lowered 2016 and 2017 GDP and Inflation Forecasts.</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Lets face facts the above is strong stimulus and collectively they are worthy of the title “BAZOOKA”.</p>\r\nWhat went wrong?\r\n\r\nWhy did the market react the way it did?\r\n\r\nI have a hard time believing that a 4-cent rise in the EUR/USD exchange rate on the day could not all be attributed to the fact that the ECB believe that they have done enough. I say that in the complete knowledge that the FX market is at times mental and appears to outsiders, and us traders sometimes, to be totally dysfunctional.\r\n\r\nThe fact that Vitor Constancio released his memorandum the following day says it all for me. Briefly, he stated that the stimulus provided was in response to the vocal skepticism in the media and markets about the prior ECB package in play. He went on to say that fiscal and structural reforms are welcome but across all the member states of the EUROZONE would have implementation issues as parliaments are all different and different time lines would be in play and laws may be restrictive. Plus not all member states would adopt fiscal policy changes whether they needed to or not. Structural reforms are too long to implement.\r\n\r\nHe summarizes with the comments that in the EURO area, higher growth is urgently required to reduce negative output and unemployment gaps.\r\n\r\nHe ends his final sentence with IF NOT MONETARY POLICY, THEN WHAT?\r\n\r\nMy thoughts are, if central bank monetary policy no longer influences exchange rates, we have a huge problem.\r\n\r\nStock markets should have been flying as a result of the ECB stimulus. We got a sell off. This has wider implications for those people who have pensions etc linked into the stock market.\r\n\r\nThe same thing happened after the BOJ introduced negative overnight interest rates. A massive sell–off followed.\r\n\r\nThis is volatility that is not expected. One of the key roles and responsibility of a central bank is that of creating and maintaining price stability, and at the same time removing uncertainty.\r\n\r\nAfter the ECB and BOJ we have uncertainty. We now have risks that we never thought that we would have. Stimulus normally means stock market bullishness.\r\n\r\nWill this reaction to the ECB affect the FED and the SNB?\r\n\r\nWe have an FOMC meeting this week. The fact that Draghi and the ECB was so accommodative, one would think that if they wanted it to, this would have supported the FED being hawkish. I somehow believe that the FED will hold until the end of Q2 before raising again, although even if it raised rates this week I think it would have a minimal effect.\r\n\r\nThomas Jordan (SNB) must have been an interested on-looker last Thursday. I have no doubt he will NOT want the CHF to strengthen and intervention could happen at any time. Even with negative interest rates there could still be a safety play at some time for the CHF pairs. The EUR will weaken over time and Jordan will want to be proactive rather than reactive with his actions.\r\n\r\nStepping back…\r\n\r\nWhen you first start trading you are aware that central bank monetary policy is the cornerstone to a currencies behavior. If you cannot rely on that what do you have?\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, confusion and uncertainty come into play, which, I believe manifests itself as FEAR and GREED. FEAR and GREED rule FX at the best of times even when there is nothing to FEAR. If markets no longer take a Viagra pill on the back of currency stimulus we have to start re-thinking about correlations next.\r\n\r\nWithout doubt it means that we should be cautious and let the dust settle down for a few days. Certainly the FED meeting this week will be one event to follow with interest. Will the FED still demand respect?\r\n\r\nThe ECB is arguably the biggest central bank in the world. The BOJ is in the top three without doubt. If the FED gets paid lip service we do have a problem moving forward.\r\n\r\nThe risks across all markets should this be the case should not be under estimated. Should the equity markets move lower, the corrections could be greater than we thought possible and then we have FEAR, followed by GREED.\r\n\r\nWaiting for fiscal and structural changes may be the way, but they are not instant to re-invigorating an economy. They take time. If Central Bank monetary policy is truly now sterile and markets immune to the effects, we could end up in chaos with an unruly sell–off. There would be a run to both GOLD and CASH.\r\n\r\nPersonally, I have never traded in a period when central bank policies were almost ignored by the markets. With the FED meeting this week, its commentary takes on another level of interest and reaction in my eyes given what has recently happened with the BOJ and ECB.\r\n\r\nI do not want to get doom and gloom orientated but I do believe we have big issues facing markets in the near term. If monetary policy just isn’t enough on its own for the immediate future, we have issues to address.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) EXCLUSIVE CONTENT:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(This area contains exclusive content for PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) subscribers)\r\n\r\n<strong>4.1: THE PREMIUM SERVICE – TRADING REVIEW: </strong>\r\n\r\n(This section can cover a multitude of points / facts etc. Basically it’s a 360-degree review, which I think should interest subscribers):\r\n\r\nIt’s all change this week versus last week’s blog.\r\n\r\nThe issue that is on my mind at the moment is the PART-TIME TRADER TRADES. These were initiated following the divergent central bank policies allowing for longer-term trades to be entered. This happened last year under tests. However, this year since going live I have been placing trades in this category, and they have been hugely successful but they do not meet the objectives I set myself regarding lifespan. Profitability wise, they are absolutely no problem. They are also very directional when they gain traction but are they PART-TIME TRADER TRADES. Being honest, not really.\r\n\r\nI have a plan. I will be changing this category over this month and re-launching from April 1<sup>st</sup> 2016.\r\n\r\nFrom a trades perspective these will not alter much as I do not want lose the pips nor the $$$ by changing a wheel that does NOT need changing.\r\n\r\nAs an old English comic, sadly gone from us Frankie Howard (my God that ages me…) used to say, “A bit of titivation doesn’t do anybody or anything any harm”\r\n\r\nI do not feel that I could release this blog without some comments about the marketplace.\r\n\r\nFor the past two weeks, I have been looking to write in the general area about the fact that retail traders in the FX market are finding it increasingly difficult to make a profit. However, something greater has always come up!\r\n\r\nOn this subject, I have two or three articles that I have pulled from various sources and one in particular talks about banks pulling back because they cannot influence the market as much as in the past and that because of inter-market diversities and lack of correlations they are losing money from what was once a huge bottom line profit contributor. Many years ago, when I worked in Lloyds Bank in the UK, I remember at one dinner function, one chap from the city proclaimed that the branch network could be closed and the costs of closure plus costs of absorbing the annual profits from branches would just be a smallish dent in the profits generate by “EASTCHEAP” the then overseas specialist centre. Those days are long gone by all accounts.\r\n\r\nI was speaking with my peer group during the week and in general discussion, figures of 10 - 25% be were being quoted about traders giving up, moving on to a different category to trade, or re-thinking strategy.\r\n\r\nThe point being made is that to keep your account in the black is an achievement not to be ignored right now. The markets are ideal for 20M traders. I am NOT a 20M trader, and being frank, I find it difficult to adjust to lower timescales.\r\n\r\nThe pullback strategy based off 5M, 15M and 45M charts working in harmony is just not working at the moment, and frankly if that does not work we have a weird marketplace in which to operate.\r\n\r\nThe longer term, smaller position sized, to some extent, place them and then forget about them trades, like the PART-TIME TRADER TRADES are working, but, they need managing, and, they are more like short to medium term trades only. I am not happy leaving those trades for months at the moment, hence I want to change my focus and definitions for that segment of the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\nSo the upshot is, if you are struggling a bit or find me and/or the market reactionary a bit more than usual, your observations are spot on.\r\n\r\nIn 2015, I let more than 2,000 pips 20% of the annual return fall through my fingers because I tried to let trades run, when I should have taken profits off the table. Even now this year, with the AUD/NZD and NZD/USD trades over the past week or so, there should have been another 500 pips of profit on the table as a minimum. I have been trying to let trades run in a chop fest.\r\n\r\nI am conscious that some of you cannot access your accounts 24x7 and therefore for me to change what my thoughts were at the outset of a trade is frustrating and annoying.\r\n\r\nUnfortunately, trading is what it is.\r\n\r\nI have to react to what the market is doing at that precise moment in time, and if that means closing a trade early, moving a stop, as I believe the trade is good, we are just dealing with increased volatility so be it.\r\n\r\nNone of my entries are at 100% position size.\r\n\r\nNot one set-up over the past year has been at 100%. This is pure and simple to allow stop placement flexibility. If you are entering your trades at your 100% position size then you have zero flexibility. If you chose to move your stop in line with my trade suggested changes you are over leveraging yourself. That is dangerous.\r\n\r\nTraders are getting out of Forex because they are over leveraging. Their accounts are dwindling in size and they blame everything and everyone instead of themselves.\r\n\r\nThis is really important to trading longevity. If anyone requires help with leveraging, there are articles in the EDUCATION section of the website. If you cannot find what you need or require additional information, email me and I will set up a SKYPE or FaceTime conversation.\r\n\r\nI have lost two traders this year due to the fact that they were trading standard lots on inappropriately sized trading accounts.\r\n\r\nYes, it is harder to make money from Forex Trading. Liquidity is down. The Asian session trading is sometimes tantamount to gambling. However, if we are aware of these factors, we adjust our mindset and get on with it. Psychology in trading is under estimated in my opinion and it is something that we should all place greater emphasis on.\r\n\r\nThere are no quick fixes in Forex; tried and tested methodology will win through but we seem to be given one wall to climb, then another is placed in front of us and then yet another.\r\n\r\nThe solution for now is to knuckle down and trade a little smaller with a little wider stop losses in position to cope with increased volatility (I feel like I have been writing that sentence off and on for over two years now).\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>4.2: TRADE STYLE DEFINITIONS:</strong>\r\n\r\n<u>4.2.1: RADAR TRADES:\r\n</u>These are pre-meditated entry trades set from either Fibonacci levels, pivot points or previous support and resistance based off a combination of horizontal or trend line support or resistance.\r\nThe goal is always if possible to swing trade these trades by establishing a position that if market conditions apply allow the trade to gather traction and develop into a longer-term position trade.\r\n\r\n<u>4.2.2: FLASH TRADES:\r\n</u>Mainly simply, opportunist trades in LIVE market conditions. These trades are either based off a pullback strategy, a GIMME10 pips strategy, or off momentum in a trading pair at the time of entry.\r\nThe goal is to either take 10-30 pips or see a sufficient move to place a protective stop in place to see if a swing trade develops.\r\nSome FLASH TRADES may form part of an overall trading plan with a given currency pair, but the entry could not be made via a LIMIT ORDER.\r\nIn addition in 2016, some FLASH TRADES can be of a longer duration, with very specific goals.\r\n\r\n<u>4.2.3: FUNDAMENTAL TRADES:\r\n</u>These will be trades based off my TRADING PLAN goals for trades in line with my longer-term market views.\r\nTrades in this area will use in addition Fibonacci levels, Pivot points, trend lines and prior support and resistance levels, weekly and monthly ATR’s (Average True Ranges) when setting Stop Loss levels.\r\nThese trades are hopefully of a longer-term nature. They will be initially “single-lot” sized trades due to the wider stop placements that will be applied.\r\n\r\n<u>4.2.4: PART-TIME TRADER TRADES: (Soon to change):\r\n</u>These trade set-ups are intended to have a longer-term trading perspective. They are not only targeted at traders who consider they are part-time Forex traders; obviously, all traders can of course take advantage. (My definition of a part-time trader is one who is only able to look at their computer screens, or, mobile devices to check trades two or three times a day).\r\nA key feature of these set-ups is that they have much wider than normal stops to allow for market swings and volatility. The trades therefore have a smaller position size to allow for the swings in volatility, but multiple trades in the same currency pair are added when the core trade has gained traction in the desired direction.\r\nMy goal is to have multiple trades open/live at any one time and maybe 2/3 open/live trades with the same currency pair. I will of course suggest to take some profits along the way, but hopefully at the same time letting trades run as far as possible.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>4.3: THE PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE SPREADSHEETS (INCLUDING LIVE &amp; LIMIT ORDER TRADES):</strong><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nFull and complete details surrounding these trades can be found inside the PREMIUM SERVICE on my website. These can be found on the spreadsheets on the website.\r\n\r\n<strong>4.4: REVIEW OF OPEN LIMIT ORDER TRADES NOT YET TRIGGERED:</strong>\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.1: RADAR LIMIT ORDER TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\nRT664 – NZD/USD:\r\nThis is a sell stop order from last week based on moving below lows of the day. I will keep this for a while as I am still bearish this pair.\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.2: FUNDAMENTAL LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n</u>\r\n\r\nFUN278 – GBP/NZD:\r\nAnother set-up to add to the longer-term trade; this one is set to trigger well above trend line resistance. I will need to re-evaluate, as the slope of the trend line is a lot lower now.\r\n\r\nFUN310 – EUR/CHF:\r\nThis trade is in play as a BUY STOP order over last Friday’s HOD.\r\n\r\nFUN311 – EUR/GBP:\r\nBased off a head and shoulders pattern. It is only invalidated by a move above 0.7850.\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.3: PART-TIME TRADER LIMIT ORDER TRADES: </u>\r\n\r\nPART045 – GBP/NZD:\r\nAnother set-up to add to the longer-term trade; this one is set to trigger well above trend line resistance. I will need to re-evaluate, as the slope of the trend line is a lot lower now\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n	<li><strong> COMING UP THIS WEEK:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5.1: THIS WEEK’S FOREX NEWS THAT INTERESTS ME:</u>\r\n\r\n(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market other than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to <a href=\"http://www.forexfactory.com\">www.forexfactory.com</a> and <a href=\"http://www.tradingeconomics.com\">www.tradingeconomics.com</a> for a more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).\r\nSUNDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: AUD – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: BOJ – Press Conference and Monetary Policy Statement.\r\nTUESDAY: USD – PPI and Retail Sales.\r\nTUESDAY: NZD – GDT Price Index.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: GBP – Unemployment Data and Annual Budget.\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – CPi and Core CPi.\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – FOMC Statement, Rate, Projections &amp; Press Conference.\r\nWEDNESDAY: NZD – GDP.\r\nWEDNESDAY: AUD – Employment Data.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: SNB – Libor Rate and Monetary Policy Statement.\r\nTHURSDAY: GBP – BOE Bank Rate and Policy Summary\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: CAD – Core Retail Sales and Core CPi.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>5.2: THE USD MAJORS SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS: </u>\r\n\r\n(In this section I have as usual kept my charts as minimalist as possible. With regards to charting in my opinion less is more!! I hope that they are clear. All readers regardless of level of experience should be able to follow my thoughts from my comments to the levels on the charts with ease)\r\n\r\nMy comments are contained on the charts. If you have difficulty getting them to expand please let me know. Sometimes word press is difficult.\r\n\r\nThis week, I have decided to break the usual approach and look at monthly charts instead of daily charts. This is in response to feedback, when I was asked for a more macro level view.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nEUR/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.1145\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/eurusd-m-12032016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7428\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7428\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/EURUSD-M-12032016-1024x509.png\" alt=\"EURUSD M 12032016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"509\" /></a>\r\n\r\nGBP/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.4386\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/gbpusd-m-12032016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7429\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7429\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/GBPUSD-M-12032016-1024x509.png\" alt=\"GBPUSD M 12032016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"509\" /></a>\r\n\r\nAUD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.7559\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/audusd-m-12032016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7427\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7427\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/AUDUSD-M-12032016-1024x509.png\" alt=\"AUDUSD M 12032016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"509\" /></a>\r\n\r\nNZD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.6742\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/nzdusd-m-12032016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7430\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7430\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/NZDUSD-M-12032016-1024x509.png\" alt=\"NZDUSD M 12032016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"509\" /></a>\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.3215\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/usdcad-m-12032016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7431\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7431\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDCAD-M-12032016-1024x509.png\" alt=\"USDCAD M 12032016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"509\" /></a>\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF - Weekly Closing Price: 0.9825\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/usdchf-m-12032016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7432\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7432\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDCHF-M-12032016-1024x509.png\" alt=\"USDCHF M 12032016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"509\" /></a>\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY - Weekly Closing Price: 113.81\r\n\r\n<u><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/usdjpy-m-12032016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7433\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7433\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDJPY-M-12032016-1024x509.png\" alt=\"USDJPY M 12032016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"509\" /></a></u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.3: CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nAnother big week for news lies ahead of us.\r\n\r\nWe have another three central banks with rate announcements, this time it’s the BOJ, SNB and BOE.\r\n\r\nUnless Thomas Jordan at the SNB does another “gob smacker”, I am expecting this week to be focused on the FED and the FOMC with Janet Yellen’s press conference.\r\n\r\nWe should also note that we have employment data from the GBP and AUD.\r\n\r\nAs always, be savvy…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nTake care,\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>','IF NOT MONETARY POLICY… THEN WHAT?','','publish','open','closed','','not-monetary-policy','','','2016-03-12 07:58:15','2016-03-12 12:58:15','',0,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?post_type=member_posts&#038;p=7434',0,'member_posts','',0),(7435,1,'2016-03-12 07:56:51','2016-03-12 12:56:51','<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li><strong> INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nPrior to the past week, the previous two weeks of trading were painful for me. From the Boris Johnson BREXIT sell off in the cable, which was followed by severe ice storms which left me without either power or any ISP’s operating for two days. It took time to re-focus and gather one’s thoughts / patterns again.\r\n\r\nThankfully, this past week was a good one. In “my week in hell” All of my PREMIUM SERVICE pip gains for 2016 were erased and last week I replaced 75% of them. I am on a roll as they say in Vegas! I am still confident of generating 10,000 pips this year as I did in 2014 and 2015.\r\n\r\nAdding in my weekly weather check…. We are thawing here, just off the island of Montreal. Soon the snow and ice will be gone. My wife and I can walk the dogs again without fear of being run over by snow ploughs, and I can trade from the terrace in the sun close to a fully functional BBQ. Yes, the summer routine should be back in play very soon once again, with a bit of luck.\r\n\r\nFinally, in this section, just to remind you; you could be the next winner of a free PREMIUM SERVICE (SILVER) subscription; if you subscribe to receive this free blog via my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nYou are automatically entered into a free monthly draw, once you’ve subscribed. Each month during 2016 one lucky blog subscriber will receive a free subscription to the PREMIUM SERVICE (SILVER).\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>2.1: WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber, fee based trade set-up option for Forex traders regardless of experience or background. I provide traders suggested trades, and some market commentary related to open trades or factors within the overall market that have my interest.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and the various trade styles plus how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nAdditional information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE you will require a PayPal account.\r\n\r\n<u>2.2: PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE THIS MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\nNET PIPS THIS MONTH SO FAR:            +1,546\r\nNET PIPS THIS YEAR SO FAR:                +1,414\r\n\r\nNET PIPS 2015        +10,686\r\nNET PIPS 2014        +11,209\r\n(I trade basically for 10 months a year. I do not trade from mid July through early September or mid December through early January).\r\n\r\nIf you want more data or detail about the performance and the tabs on my website landing page do not answer your questions, contact me directly and I will supply the trading data you require. There are NO secrets. There are many, many spreadsheets detailing performance trade by trade and by trade and by trading style, way too many to place in this blog. If you are interested in the PREMIUM SERVICE and want more information, all you have to do is ask.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>3.1: LAST WEEK’S NEWS – MY THOUGHTS:</strong>\r\n\r\nWhat a feck of a week we just had.\r\n\r\nJesus, Mary and Joseph, I said last week that “CENTRAL BANKS TAKE CENTRE STAGE”, even one of my heroes, Mick Jagger, would have had difficulty managing and working that stage.\r\n\r\nWe had the BOC, RBNZ and ECB all dominating Forex traders minds regarding trading and to set the week off just prior to the BOC statement we had Mark Carney with testimony in front of a Treasury Select Committee hearing where Carney was talking about the BREXIT… deep joy and what fun.\r\n\r\nMy review of these four events is as follows: -\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUK TREASURY SELECT COMMITTEE HEARING:\r\n\r\nMy first comment about this was how awfully, “awfully” the chaps were. There was none of the GOP debate nonsense of small hands, calling people liars, chokers, no wetting one’s trousers’, no spray tans and the bible never came up once. The most heated it got was when Euro-skeptic MP Jacob Rees-Mogg addressed Carney with a “with due respect”.\r\n\r\nYou have got to love old blighty, the U.S. has Ted Cruz, Bernie Sanders, Donald Trump, Mitt Romney and Little Marco… the Brits have a Jacob Rees-Mogg, married to a Helena de Chair with a sibling named Annunziata Rees-Mogg. Bollocks to the U.S., the Brits have a history and they have names that age like a good bottle of Corton, which, is in complete contrast to the bottle of BUD comparison of the Teds, Bernie’s, Mitts and Donald’s of this world. I mean what sex is that sibling, it sounds female but is it? However, Jacob and Helena have a son named Tom Wentworth Somerset Dunstan Rees-Mogg, I would like to see how VISA and MasterCard cope with that!\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nThe 3 hours or so of questions and answers were the usual toing and froing that one sees in the UK. No rambles of statements pretending to be questions that Janet Yellen faces when she is giving her testimony on Capital Hill.\r\n\r\nCarney was accused of being pro-EU and he stood his ground. He had apparently not conducted through the BOE any scenarios of effects should the BREXIT occur. Brave man, however, I do not believe in a million years that not one single paper has been produced inside the BOE with what their strategies are.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nBOC:\r\n\r\nNo press conference this time and guess what? All is just fecking brilliant here in Canada. The snows are melting exposing potholes all over the roads here in Quebec. The mass of concrete that is so heavy in the crumbling infrastructure of Montreal, crumbles away some more. We had a massive sinkhole this week in Montreal. Jobs are disappearing from the prosperous provinces of Alberta and British Columbia. The chances of a housing bubble in Vancouver and Toronto are still there, prices are not giving up. However, from the thick pile cushioned carpets inside the BOC all are warm and cuddly.\r\n\r\nStephen Poloz is banking on Justin Trudeau’s first budget on the 22<sup>nd</sup> March to provide fiscal stimulus to cure all the issues facing the Canadian economy. Lets see how that goes.\r\n\r\nFor now rates are on hold.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nRBNZ:\r\n\r\nGraeme Wheeler in a market surprise event cut interest rates by 0.25%. He promised more should matters Kiwi not improve. I notice that another 0.25% has been penciled in prior to the completion of Q2.\r\n\r\nThe one thing I noticed from reading the statement and listening to the press conference and parliament speech was the number of times China was mentioned. I don\'t think that Wheeler is planning a vacation, more just shitt**g his pants as China is New Zealand’s largest trading partner and the slowdown and hard landing that we all know is coming is starting to bite, and bite hard.\r\n\r\nSelling the NZD on spikes would seem to be a great trade for the time being.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nECB:\r\n\r\nWTF! - Draghi throws the kitchen sink in. He did not hold back and instead of the EUR weakening it strengthened. It shot up so fast off 1.0820, like a rat up a drainpipe, and it rallied from 1.0820 to over 1.1200, 4 cents in one session an unbelievable move.\r\n\r\nDraghi cut, added, added some more stimuli and at the end basically fecked up by saying that\'s about it, no more scope, nothing more to do now. At that point the EUR/USD and crosses spiked. I watched not believing the squeeze that took place.\r\n\r\nWho would be Draghi pouring out his fruit loops this morning reading all the media coverage about the press conference? Wiedmann at the Bundesbank, will be handing Mario a huge slice of I told you so soon, if he hasn’t already done so.\r\n\r\nWhat happened though has much wider implications, which I will look at later in the blog. The impact of post ECB has wider implications for Central Banks, Governments will take note, and, it filters all the way down to us Forex Traders on how we approach the markets moving forward.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>3.2: WHAT’S ON MY MIND:</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>IF NOT MONETARY POLICY… THEN WHAT?</strong>\r\n(This is a line taken from “IN DEFENCE OF MONETARY POLICY” written by Vitor Constancio, Vice President of the ECB. It was written the day following the latest ECB Press Conference)</p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe latest ECB press conference was the second one from which the markets poo-pooed the ECB stimulus and the single currency strengthened instead of weakening. One occasion is a freak; the second is a pattern… but why?\r\n\r\nDraghi unleashed aggressive monetary stimulus.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Refinancing Rate cut from 0% to 0.05%.</strong>\r\n<strong>Overnight deposit negative rates increased from -0.3% to -0.4%.</strong>\r\n<strong>QE increased to €80 billion per month from €60 billion per month.</strong>\r\n<strong> New 4 year TLTRO’s.</strong>\r\n<strong> Asset Purchases to now include Corporate Bonds</strong>\r\n<strong> He then also lowered 2016 and 2017 GDP and Inflation Forecasts.</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">\r\nLets face facts the above is strong stimulus and collectively they are worthy of the title “BAZOOKA”.</p>\r\nWhat went wrong?\r\n\r\nWhy did the market react the way it did?\r\n\r\nI have a hard time believing that a 4-cent rise in the EUR/USD exchange rate on the day could not all be attributed to the fact that the ECB believe that they have done enough. I say that in the complete knowledge that the FX market is at times mental and appears to outsiders, and us traders sometimes, to be totally dysfunctional.\r\n\r\nThe fact that Vitor Constancio released his memorandum the following day says it all for me. Briefly, he stated that the stimulus provided was in response to the vocal skepticism in the media and markets about the prior ECB package in play. He went on to say that fiscal and structural reforms are welcome but across all the member states of the EUROZONE would have implementation issues as parliaments are all different and different time lines would be in play and laws may be restrictive. Plus not all member states would adopt fiscal policy changes whether they needed to or not. Structural reforms are too long to implement.\r\n\r\nHe summarizes with the comments that in the EURO area, higher growth is urgently required to reduce negative output and unemployment gaps.\r\n\r\nHe ends his final sentence with IF NOT MONETARY POLICY, THEN WHAT?\r\n\r\nMy thoughts are, if central bank monetary policy no longer influences exchange rates, we have a huge problem.\r\n\r\nStock markets should have been flying as a result of the ECB stimulus. We got a sell off. This has wider implications for those people who have pensions etc linked into the stock market.\r\n\r\nThe same thing happened after the BOJ introduced negative overnight interest rates. A massive sell–off followed.\r\n\r\nThis is volatility that is not expected. One of the key roles and responsibility of a central bank is that of creating and maintaining price stability, and at the same time removing uncertainty.\r\n\r\nAfter the ECB and BOJ we have uncertainty. We now have risks that we never thought that we would have. Stimulus normally means stock market bullishness.\r\n\r\nWill this reaction to the ECB affect the FED and the SNB?\r\n\r\nWe have an FOMC meeting this week. The fact that Draghi and the ECB was so accommodative, one would think that if they wanted it to, this would have supported the FED being hawkish. I somehow believe that the FED will hold until the end of Q2 before raising again, although even if it raised rates this week I think it would have a minimal effect.\r\n\r\nThomas Jordan (SNB) must have been an interested on-looker last Thursday. I have no doubt he will NOT want the CHF to strengthen and intervention could happen at any time. Even with negative interest rates there could still be a safety play at some time for the CHF pairs. The EUR will weaken over time and Jordan will want to be proactive rather than reactive with his actions.\r\n\r\nStepping back…\r\n\r\nWhen you first start trading you are aware that central bank monetary policy is the cornerstone to a currencies behavior. If you cannot rely on that what do you have?\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, confusion and uncertainty come into play, which, I believe manifests itself as FEAR and GREED. FEAR and GREED rule FX at the best of times even when there is nothing to FEAR. If markets no longer take a Viagra pill on the back of currency stimulus we have to start re-thinking about correlations next.\r\n\r\nWithout doubt it means that we should be cautious and let the dust settle down for a few days. Certainly the FED meeting this week will be one event to follow with interest. Will the FED still demand respect?\r\n\r\nThe ECB is arguably the biggest central bank in the world. The BOJ is in the top three without doubt. If the FED gets paid lip service we do have a problem moving forward.\r\n\r\nThe risks across all markets should this be the case should not be under estimated. Should the equity markets move lower, the corrections could be greater than we thought possible and then we have FEAR, followed by GREED.\r\n\r\nWaiting for fiscal and structural changes may be the way, but they are not instant to re-invigorating an economy. They take time. If Central Bank monetary policy is truly now sterile and markets immune to the effects, we could end up in chaos with an unruly sell–off. There would be a run to both GOLD and CASH.\r\n\r\nPersonally, I have never traded in a period when central bank policies were almost ignored by the markets. With the FED meeting this week, its commentary takes on another level of interest and reaction in my eyes given what has recently happened with the BOJ and ECB.\r\n\r\nI do not want to get doom and gloom orientated but I do believe we have big issues facing markets in the near term. If monetary policy just isn’t enough on its own for the immediate future, we have issues to address.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) EXCLUSIVE CONTENT:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(This area contains exclusive content for PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) subscribers)\r\n\r\n<strong>4.1: THE PREMIUM SERVICE – TRADING REVIEW: </strong>\r\n\r\n(This section can cover a multitude of points / facts etc. Basically it’s a 360-degree review, which I think should interest subscribers):\r\n\r\nIt’s all change this week versus last week’s blog.\r\n\r\nThe issue that is on my mind at the moment is the PART-TIME TRADER TRADES. These were initiated following the divergent central bank policies allowing for longer-term trades to be entered. This happened last year under tests. However, this year since going live I have been placing trades in this category, and they have been hugely successful but they do not meet the objectives I set myself regarding lifespan. Profitability wise, they are absolutely no problem. They are also very directional when they gain traction but are they PART-TIME TRADER TRADES. Being honest, not really.\r\n\r\nI have a plan. I will be changing this category over this month and re-launching from April 1<sup>st</sup> 2016.\r\n\r\nFrom a trades perspective these will not alter much as I do not want lose the pips nor the $$$ by changing a wheel that does NOT need changing.\r\n\r\nAs an old English comic, sadly gone from us Frankie Howard (my God that ages me…) used to say, “A bit of titivation doesn’t do anybody or anything any harm”\r\n\r\nI do not feel that I could release this blog without some comments about the marketplace.\r\n\r\nFor the past two weeks, I have been looking to write in the general area about the fact that retail traders in the FX market are finding it increasingly difficult to make a profit. However, something greater has always come up!\r\n\r\nOn this subject, I have two or three articles that I have pulled from various sources and one in particular talks about banks pulling back because they cannot influence the market as much as in the past and that because of inter-market diversities and lack of correlations they are losing money from what was once a huge bottom line profit contributor. Many years ago, when I worked in Lloyds Bank in the UK, I remember at one dinner function, one chap from the city proclaimed that the branch network could be closed and the costs of closure plus costs of absorbing the annual profits from branches would just be a smallish dent in the profits generate by “EASTCHEAP” the then overseas specialist centre. Those days are long gone by all accounts.\r\n\r\nI was speaking with my peer group during the week and in general discussion, figures of 10 - 25% be were being quoted about traders giving up, moving on to a different category to trade, or re-thinking strategy.\r\n\r\nThe point being made is that to keep your account in the black is an achievement not to be ignored right now. The markets are ideal for 20M traders. I am NOT a 20M trader, and being frank, I find it difficult to adjust to lower timescales.\r\n\r\nThe pullback strategy based off 5M, 15M and 45M charts working in harmony is just not working at the moment, and frankly if that does not work we have a weird marketplace in which to operate.\r\n\r\nThe longer term, smaller position sized, to some extent, place them and then forget about them trades, like the PART-TIME TRADER TRADES are working, but, they need managing, and, they are more like short to medium term trades only. I am not happy leaving those trades for months at the moment, hence I want to change my focus and definitions for that segment of the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\nSo the upshot is, if you are struggling a bit or find me and/or the market reactionary a bit more than usual, your observations are spot on.\r\n\r\nIn 2015, I let more than 2,000 pips 20% of the annual return fall through my fingers because I tried to let trades run, when I should have taken profits off the table. Even now this year, with the AUD/NZD and NZD/USD trades over the past week or so, there should have been another 500 pips of profit on the table as a minimum. I have been trying to let trades run in a chop fest.\r\n\r\nI am conscious that some of you cannot access your accounts 24x7 and therefore for me to change what my thoughts were at the outset of a trade is frustrating and annoying.\r\n\r\nUnfortunately, trading is what it is.\r\n\r\nI have to react to what the market is doing at that precise moment in time, and if that means closing a trade early, moving a stop, as I believe the trade is good, we are just dealing with increased volatility so be it.\r\n\r\nNone of my entries are at 100% position size.\r\n\r\nNot one set-up over the past year has been at 100%. This is pure and simple to allow stop placement flexibility. If you are entering your trades at your 100% position size then you have zero flexibility. If you chose to move your stop in line with my trade suggested changes you are over leveraging yourself. That is dangerous.\r\n\r\nTraders are getting out of Forex because they are over leveraging. Their accounts are dwindling in size and they blame everything and everyone instead of themselves.\r\n\r\nThis is really important to trading longevity. If anyone requires help with leveraging, there are articles in the EDUCATION section of the website. If you cannot find what you need or require additional information, email me and I will set up a SKYPE or FaceTime conversation.\r\n\r\nI have lost two traders this year due to the fact that they were trading standard lots on inappropriately sized trading accounts.\r\n\r\nYes, it is harder to make money from Forex Trading. Liquidity is down. The Asian session trading is sometimes tantamount to gambling. However, if we are aware of these factors, we adjust our mindset and get on with it. Psychology in trading is under estimated in my opinion and it is something that we should all place greater emphasis on.\r\n\r\nThere are no quick fixes in Forex; tried and tested methodology will win through but we seem to be given one wall to climb, then another is placed in front of us and then yet another.\r\n\r\nThe solution for now is to knuckle down and trade a little smaller with a little wider stop losses in position to cope with increased volatility (I feel like I have been writing that sentence off and on for over two years now).\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>4.2: TRADE STYLE DEFINITIONS:</strong>\r\n\r\n<u>4.2.1: RADAR TRADES:\r\n</u>These are pre-meditated entry trades set from either Fibonacci levels, pivot points or previous support and resistance based off a combination of horizontal or trend line support or resistance.\r\nThe goal is always if possible to swing trade these trades by establishing a position that if market conditions apply allow the trade to gather traction and develop into a longer-term position trade.\r\n\r\n<u>4.2.2: FLASH TRADES:\r\n</u>Mainly simply, opportunist trades in LIVE market conditions. These trades are either based off a pullback strategy, a GIMME10 pips strategy, or off momentum in a trading pair at the time of entry.\r\nThe goal is to either take 10-30 pips or see a sufficient move to place a protective stop in place to see if a swing trade develops.\r\nSome FLASH TRADES may form part of an overall trading plan with a given currency pair, but the entry could not be made via a LIMIT ORDER.\r\nIn addition in 2016, some FLASH TRADES can be of a longer duration, with very specific goals.\r\n\r\n<u>4.2.3: FUNDAMENTAL TRADES:\r\n</u>These will be trades based off my TRADING PLAN goals for trades in line with my longer-term market views.\r\nTrades in this area will use in addition Fibonacci levels, Pivot points, trend lines and prior support and resistance levels, weekly and monthly ATR’s (Average True Ranges) when setting Stop Loss levels.\r\nThese trades are hopefully of a longer-term nature. They will be initially “single-lot” sized trades due to the wider stop placements that will be applied.\r\n\r\n<u>4.2.4: PART-TIME TRADER TRADES: (Soon to change):\r\n</u>These trade set-ups are intended to have a longer-term trading perspective. They are not only targeted at traders who consider they are part-time Forex traders; obviously, all traders can of course take advantage. (My definition of a part-time trader is one who is only able to look at their computer screens, or, mobile devices to check trades two or three times a day).\r\nA key feature of these set-ups is that they have much wider than normal stops to allow for market swings and volatility. The trades therefore have a smaller position size to allow for the swings in volatility, but multiple trades in the same currency pair are added when the core trade has gained traction in the desired direction.\r\nMy goal is to have multiple trades open/live at any one time and maybe 2/3 open/live trades with the same currency pair. I will of course suggest to take some profits along the way, but hopefully at the same time letting trades run as far as possible.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>4.3: THE PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE SPREADSHEETS (INCLUDING LIVE &amp; LIMIT ORDER TRADES):</strong><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nFull and complete details surrounding these trades can be found inside the PREMIUM SERVICE on my website. These can be found on the spreadsheets on the website.\r\n\r\n<strong>4.4: REVIEW OF OPEN LIMIT ORDER TRADES NOT YET TRIGGERED:</strong>\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.1: RADAR LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n\r\n</u>RT664 – NZD/USD:\r\nThis is a sell stop order from last week based on moving below lows of the day. I will keep this for a while as I am still bearish this pair.\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.2: FUNDAMENTAL LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n</u>\r\n\r\nFUN278 – GBP/NZD:\r\nAnother set-up to add to the longer-term trade; this one is set to trigger well above trend line resistance. I will need to re-evaluate, as the slope of the trend line is a lot lower now.\r\n\r\nFUN310 – EUR/CHF:\r\nThis trade is in play as a BUY STOP order over last Friday’s HOD.\r\n\r\nFUN311 – EUR/GBP:\r\nBased off a head and shoulders pattern. It is only invalidated by a move above 0.7850.\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.3: PART-TIME TRADER LIMIT ORDER TRADES: </u>\r\n\r\nPART045 – GBP/NZD:\r\nAnother set-up to add to the longer-term trade; this one is set to trigger well above trend line resistance. I will need to re-evaluate, as the slope of the trend line is a lot lower now\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n	<li><strong> COMING UP THIS WEEK:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5.1: THIS WEEK’S FOREX NEWS THAT INTERESTS ME:</u>\r\n\r\n(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market other than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to <a href=\"http://www.forexfactory.com\">www.forexfactory.com</a> and <a href=\"http://www.tradingeconomics.com\">www.tradingeconomics.com</a> for a more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).\r\nSUNDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: AUD – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: BOJ – Press Conference and Monetary Policy Statement.\r\nTUESDAY: USD – PPI and Retail Sales.\r\nTUESDAY: NZD – GDT Price Index.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: GBP – Unemployment Data and Annual Budget.\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – CPi and Core CPi.\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – FOMC Statement, Rate, Projections &amp; Press Conference.\r\nWEDNESDAY: NZD – GDP.\r\nWEDNESDAY: AUD – Employment Data.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: SNB – Libor Rate and Monetary Policy Statement.\r\nTHURSDAY: GBP – BOE Bank Rate and Policy Summary\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: CAD – Core Retail Sales and Core CPi.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>5.2: THE USD MAJORS SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS: </u>\r\n\r\n(In this section I have as usual kept my charts as minimalist as possible. With regards to charting in my opinion less is more!! I hope that they are clear. All readers regardless of level of experience should be able to follow my thoughts from my comments to the levels on the charts with ease)\r\n\r\nMy comments are contained on the charts. If you have difficulty getting them to expand please let me know. Sometimes word press is difficult.\r\n\r\nThis week, I have decided to break the usual approach and look at monthly charts instead of daily charts. This is in response to feedback, when I was asked for a more macro level view.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nEUR/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.1145\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/eurusd-m-12032016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7428\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7428\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/EURUSD-M-12032016-1024x509.png\" alt=\"EURUSD M 12032016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"509\" /></a>\r\n\r\nGBP/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.4386\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/gbpusd-m-12032016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7429\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7429\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/GBPUSD-M-12032016-1024x509.png\" alt=\"GBPUSD M 12032016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"509\" /></a>\r\n\r\nAUD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.7559\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/audusd-m-12032016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7427\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7427\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/AUDUSD-M-12032016-1024x509.png\" alt=\"AUDUSD M 12032016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"509\" /></a>\r\n\r\nNZD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.6742\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/nzdusd-m-12032016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7430\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7430\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/NZDUSD-M-12032016-1024x509.png\" alt=\"NZDUSD M 12032016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"509\" /></a>\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.3215\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/usdcad-m-12032016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7431\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7431\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDCAD-M-12032016-1024x509.png\" alt=\"USDCAD M 12032016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"509\" /></a>\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF - Weekly Closing Price: 0.9825\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/usdchf-m-12032016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7432\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7432\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDCHF-M-12032016-1024x509.png\" alt=\"USDCHF M 12032016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"509\" /></a>\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY - Weekly Closing Price: 113.81\r\n\r\n<u><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/usdjpy-m-12032016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7433\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7433\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDJPY-M-12032016-1024x509.png\" alt=\"USDJPY M 12032016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"509\" /></a></u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.3: CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nAnother big week for news lies ahead of us.\r\n\r\nWe have another three central banks with rate announcements, this time it’s the BOJ, SNB and BOE.\r\n\r\nUnless Thomas Jordan at the SNB does another “gob smacker”, I am expecting this week to be focused on the FED and the FOMC with Janet Yellen’s press conference.\r\n\r\nWe should also note that we have employment data from the GBP and AUD.\r\n\r\nAs always, be savvy…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nTake care,\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>','IF NOT MONETARY POLICY… THEN WHAT?','','inherit','closed','closed','','7434-revision-v1','','','2016-03-12 07:56:51','2016-03-12 12:56:51','',7434,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/7434-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(7436,1,'2016-03-12 07:58:15','2016-03-12 12:58:15','<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li><strong> INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nPrior to the past week, the previous two weeks of trading were painful for me. From the Boris Johnson BREXIT sell off in the cable, which was followed by severe ice storms which left me without either power or any ISP’s operating for two days. It took time to re-focus and gather one’s thoughts / patterns again.\r\n\r\nThankfully, this past week was a good one. In “my week in hell” All of my PREMIUM SERVICE pip gains for 2016 were erased and last week I replaced 75% of them. I am on a roll as they say in Vegas! I am still confident of generating 10,000 pips this year as I did in 2014 and 2015.\r\n\r\nAdding in my weekly weather check…. We are thawing here, just off the island of Montreal. Soon the snow and ice will be gone. My wife and I can walk the dogs again without fear of being run over by snow ploughs, and I can trade from the terrace in the sun close to a fully functional BBQ. Yes, the summer routine should be back in play very soon once again, with a bit of luck.\r\n\r\nFinally, in this section, just to remind you; you could be the next winner of a free PREMIUM SERVICE (SILVER) subscription; if you subscribe to receive this free blog via my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nYou are automatically entered into a free monthly draw, once you’ve subscribed. Each month during 2016 one lucky blog subscriber will receive a free subscription to the PREMIUM SERVICE (SILVER).\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>2.1: WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber, fee based trade set-up option for Forex traders regardless of experience or background. I provide traders suggested trades, and some market commentary related to open trades or factors within the overall market that have my interest.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and the various trade styles plus how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nAdditional information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE you will require a PayPal account.\r\n\r\n<u>2.2: PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE THIS MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\nNET PIPS THIS MONTH SO FAR:            +1,546\r\nNET PIPS THIS YEAR SO FAR:                +1,414\r\n\r\nNET PIPS 2015        +10,686\r\nNET PIPS 2014        +11,209\r\n(I trade basically for 10 months a year. I do not trade from mid July through early September or mid December through early January).\r\n\r\nIf you want more data or detail about the performance and the tabs on my website landing page do not answer your questions, contact me directly and I will supply the trading data you require. There are NO secrets. There are many, many spreadsheets detailing performance trade by trade and by trade and by trading style, way too many to place in this blog. If you are interested in the PREMIUM SERVICE and want more information, all you have to do is ask.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>3.1: LAST WEEK’S NEWS – MY THOUGHTS:</strong>\r\n\r\nWhat a feck of a week we just had.\r\n\r\nJesus, Mary and Joseph, I said last week that “CENTRAL BANKS TAKE CENTRE STAGE”, even one of my heroes, Mick Jagger, would have had difficulty managing and working that stage.\r\n\r\nWe had the BOC, RBNZ and ECB all dominating Forex traders minds regarding trading and to set the week off just prior to the BOC statement we had Mark Carney with testimony in front of a Treasury Select Committee hearing where Carney was talking about the BREXIT… deep joy and what fun.\r\n\r\nMy review of these four events is as follows: -\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUK TREASURY SELECT COMMITTEE HEARING:\r\n\r\nMy first comment about this was how awfully, “awfully” the chaps were. There was none of the GOP debate nonsense of small hands, calling people liars, chokers, no wetting one’s trousers’, no spray tans and the bible never came up once. The most heated it got was when Euro-skeptic MP Jacob Rees-Mogg addressed Carney with a “with due respect”.\r\n\r\nYou have got to love old blighty, the U.S. has Ted Cruz, Bernie Sanders, Donald Trump, Mitt Romney and Little Marco… the Brits have a Jacob Rees-Mogg, married to a Helena de Chair with a sibling named Annunziata Rees-Mogg. Bollocks to the U.S., the Brits have a history and they have names that age like a good bottle of Corton, which, is in complete contrast to the bottle of BUD comparison of the Teds, Bernie’s, Mitts and Donald’s of this world. I mean what sex is that sibling, it sounds female but is it? However, Jacob and Helena have a son named Tom Wentworth Somerset Dunstan Rees-Mogg, I would like to see how VISA and MasterCard cope with that!\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nThe 3 hours or so of questions and answers were the usual toing and froing that one sees in the UK. No rambles of statements pretending to be questions that Janet Yellen faces when she is giving her testimony on Capital Hill.\r\n\r\nCarney was accused of being pro-EU and he stood his ground. He had apparently not conducted through the BOE any scenarios of effects should the BREXIT occur. Brave man, however, I do not believe in a million years that not one single paper has been produced inside the BOE with what their strategies are.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nBOC:\r\n\r\nNo press conference this time and guess what? All is just fecking brilliant here in Canada. The snows are melting exposing potholes all over the roads here in Quebec. The mass of concrete that is so heavy in the crumbling infrastructure of Montreal, crumbles away some more. We had a massive sinkhole this week in Montreal. Jobs are disappearing from the prosperous provinces of Alberta and British Columbia. The chances of a housing bubble in Vancouver and Toronto are still there, prices are not giving up. However, from the thick pile cushioned carpets inside the BOC all are warm and cuddly.\r\n\r\nStephen Poloz is banking on Justin Trudeau’s first budget on the 22<sup>nd</sup> March to provide fiscal stimulus to cure all the issues facing the Canadian economy. Lets see how that goes.\r\n\r\nFor now rates are on hold.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nRBNZ:\r\n\r\nGraeme Wheeler in a market surprise event cut interest rates by 0.25%. He promised more should matters Kiwi not improve. I notice that another 0.25% has been penciled in prior to the completion of Q2.\r\n\r\nThe one thing I noticed from reading the statement and listening to the press conference and parliament speech was the number of times China was mentioned. I don\'t think that Wheeler is planning a vacation, more just shitt**g his pants as China is New Zealand’s largest trading partner and the slowdown and hard landing that we all know is coming is starting to bite, and bite hard.\r\n\r\nSelling the NZD on spikes would seem to be a great trade for the time being.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nECB:\r\n\r\nWTF! - Draghi throws the kitchen sink in. He did not hold back and instead of the EUR weakening it strengthened. It shot up so fast off 1.0820, like a rat up a drain pipe, and it rallied from 1.0820 to over 1.1200, 4 cents in one session an unbelievable move.\r\n\r\nDraghi cut, added, added some more stimuli and at the end basically fecked up by saying that\'s about it, no more scope, nothing more to do now. At that point the EUR/USD and crosses spiked. I watched not believing the squeeze that took place.\r\n\r\nWho would be Draghi pouring out his fruit loops this morning reading all the media coverage about the press conference? Wiedmann at the Bundesbank, will be handing Mario a huge slice of I told you so soon, if he hasn’t already done so.\r\n\r\nWhat happened though has much wider implications, which I will look at later in the blog. The impact of post ECB has wider implications for Central Banks, Governments will take note, and, it filters all the way down to us Forex Traders on how we approach the markets moving forward.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>3.2: WHAT’S ON MY MIND:</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>IF NOT MONETARY POLICY… THEN WHAT?</strong>\r\n(This is a line taken from “IN DEFENCE OF MONETARY POLICY” written by Vitor Constancio, Vice President of the ECB. It was written the day following the latest ECB Press Conference)</p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe latest ECB press conference was the second one from which the markets poo-pooed the ECB stimulus and the single currency strengthened instead of weakening. One occasion is a freak; the second is a pattern… but why?\r\n\r\nDraghi unleashed aggressive monetary stimulus.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Refinancing Rate cut from 0% to 0.05%.</strong>\r\n<strong>Overnight deposit negative rates increased from -0.3% to -0.4%.</strong>\r\n<strong>QE increased to €80 billion per month from €60 billion per month.</strong>\r\n<strong> New 4 year TLTRO’s.</strong>\r\n<strong> Asset Purchases to now include Corporate Bonds</strong>\r\n<strong> He then also lowered 2016 and 2017 GDP and Inflation Forecasts.</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Lets face facts the above is strong stimulus and collectively they are worthy of the title “BAZOOKA”.</p>\r\nWhat went wrong?\r\n\r\nWhy did the market react the way it did?\r\n\r\nI have a hard time believing that a 4-cent rise in the EUR/USD exchange rate on the day could not all be attributed to the fact that the ECB believe that they have done enough. I say that in the complete knowledge that the FX market is at times mental and appears to outsiders, and us traders sometimes, to be totally dysfunctional.\r\n\r\nThe fact that Vitor Constancio released his memorandum the following day says it all for me. Briefly, he stated that the stimulus provided was in response to the vocal skepticism in the media and markets about the prior ECB package in play. He went on to say that fiscal and structural reforms are welcome but across all the member states of the EUROZONE would have implementation issues as parliaments are all different and different time lines would be in play and laws may be restrictive. Plus not all member states would adopt fiscal policy changes whether they needed to or not. Structural reforms are too long to implement.\r\n\r\nHe summarizes with the comments that in the EURO area, higher growth is urgently required to reduce negative output and unemployment gaps.\r\n\r\nHe ends his final sentence with IF NOT MONETARY POLICY, THEN WHAT?\r\n\r\nMy thoughts are, if central bank monetary policy no longer influences exchange rates, we have a huge problem.\r\n\r\nStock markets should have been flying as a result of the ECB stimulus. We got a sell off. This has wider implications for those people who have pensions etc linked into the stock market.\r\n\r\nThe same thing happened after the BOJ introduced negative overnight interest rates. A massive sell–off followed.\r\n\r\nThis is volatility that is not expected. One of the key roles and responsibility of a central bank is that of creating and maintaining price stability, and at the same time removing uncertainty.\r\n\r\nAfter the ECB and BOJ we have uncertainty. We now have risks that we never thought that we would have. Stimulus normally means stock market bullishness.\r\n\r\nWill this reaction to the ECB affect the FED and the SNB?\r\n\r\nWe have an FOMC meeting this week. The fact that Draghi and the ECB was so accommodative, one would think that if they wanted it to, this would have supported the FED being hawkish. I somehow believe that the FED will hold until the end of Q2 before raising again, although even if it raised rates this week I think it would have a minimal effect.\r\n\r\nThomas Jordan (SNB) must have been an interested on-looker last Thursday. I have no doubt he will NOT want the CHF to strengthen and intervention could happen at any time. Even with negative interest rates there could still be a safety play at some time for the CHF pairs. The EUR will weaken over time and Jordan will want to be proactive rather than reactive with his actions.\r\n\r\nStepping back…\r\n\r\nWhen you first start trading you are aware that central bank monetary policy is the cornerstone to a currencies behavior. If you cannot rely on that what do you have?\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, confusion and uncertainty come into play, which, I believe manifests itself as FEAR and GREED. FEAR and GREED rule FX at the best of times even when there is nothing to FEAR. If markets no longer take a Viagra pill on the back of currency stimulus we have to start re-thinking about correlations next.\r\n\r\nWithout doubt it means that we should be cautious and let the dust settle down for a few days. Certainly the FED meeting this week will be one event to follow with interest. Will the FED still demand respect?\r\n\r\nThe ECB is arguably the biggest central bank in the world. The BOJ is in the top three without doubt. If the FED gets paid lip service we do have a problem moving forward.\r\n\r\nThe risks across all markets should this be the case should not be under estimated. Should the equity markets move lower, the corrections could be greater than we thought possible and then we have FEAR, followed by GREED.\r\n\r\nWaiting for fiscal and structural changes may be the way, but they are not instant to re-invigorating an economy. They take time. If Central Bank monetary policy is truly now sterile and markets immune to the effects, we could end up in chaos with an unruly sell–off. There would be a run to both GOLD and CASH.\r\n\r\nPersonally, I have never traded in a period when central bank policies were almost ignored by the markets. With the FED meeting this week, its commentary takes on another level of interest and reaction in my eyes given what has recently happened with the BOJ and ECB.\r\n\r\nI do not want to get doom and gloom orientated but I do believe we have big issues facing markets in the near term. If monetary policy just isn’t enough on its own for the immediate future, we have issues to address.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) EXCLUSIVE CONTENT:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(This area contains exclusive content for PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) subscribers)\r\n\r\n<strong>4.1: THE PREMIUM SERVICE – TRADING REVIEW: </strong>\r\n\r\n(This section can cover a multitude of points / facts etc. Basically it’s a 360-degree review, which I think should interest subscribers):\r\n\r\nIt’s all change this week versus last week’s blog.\r\n\r\nThe issue that is on my mind at the moment is the PART-TIME TRADER TRADES. These were initiated following the divergent central bank policies allowing for longer-term trades to be entered. This happened last year under tests. However, this year since going live I have been placing trades in this category, and they have been hugely successful but they do not meet the objectives I set myself regarding lifespan. Profitability wise, they are absolutely no problem. They are also very directional when they gain traction but are they PART-TIME TRADER TRADES. Being honest, not really.\r\n\r\nI have a plan. I will be changing this category over this month and re-launching from April 1<sup>st</sup> 2016.\r\n\r\nFrom a trades perspective these will not alter much as I do not want lose the pips nor the $$$ by changing a wheel that does NOT need changing.\r\n\r\nAs an old English comic, sadly gone from us Frankie Howard (my God that ages me…) used to say, “A bit of titivation doesn’t do anybody or anything any harm”\r\n\r\nI do not feel that I could release this blog without some comments about the marketplace.\r\n\r\nFor the past two weeks, I have been looking to write in the general area about the fact that retail traders in the FX market are finding it increasingly difficult to make a profit. However, something greater has always come up!\r\n\r\nOn this subject, I have two or three articles that I have pulled from various sources and one in particular talks about banks pulling back because they cannot influence the market as much as in the past and that because of inter-market diversities and lack of correlations they are losing money from what was once a huge bottom line profit contributor. Many years ago, when I worked in Lloyds Bank in the UK, I remember at one dinner function, one chap from the city proclaimed that the branch network could be closed and the costs of closure plus costs of absorbing the annual profits from branches would just be a smallish dent in the profits generate by “EASTCHEAP” the then overseas specialist centre. Those days are long gone by all accounts.\r\n\r\nI was speaking with my peer group during the week and in general discussion, figures of 10 - 25% be were being quoted about traders giving up, moving on to a different category to trade, or re-thinking strategy.\r\n\r\nThe point being made is that to keep your account in the black is an achievement not to be ignored right now. The markets are ideal for 20M traders. I am NOT a 20M trader, and being frank, I find it difficult to adjust to lower timescales.\r\n\r\nThe pullback strategy based off 5M, 15M and 45M charts working in harmony is just not working at the moment, and frankly if that does not work we have a weird marketplace in which to operate.\r\n\r\nThe longer term, smaller position sized, to some extent, place them and then forget about them trades, like the PART-TIME TRADER TRADES are working, but, they need managing, and, they are more like short to medium term trades only. I am not happy leaving those trades for months at the moment, hence I want to change my focus and definitions for that segment of the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\nSo the upshot is, if you are struggling a bit or find me and/or the market reactionary a bit more than usual, your observations are spot on.\r\n\r\nIn 2015, I let more than 2,000 pips 20% of the annual return fall through my fingers because I tried to let trades run, when I should have taken profits off the table. Even now this year, with the AUD/NZD and NZD/USD trades over the past week or so, there should have been another 500 pips of profit on the table as a minimum. I have been trying to let trades run in a chop fest.\r\n\r\nI am conscious that some of you cannot access your accounts 24x7 and therefore for me to change what my thoughts were at the outset of a trade is frustrating and annoying.\r\n\r\nUnfortunately, trading is what it is.\r\n\r\nI have to react to what the market is doing at that precise moment in time, and if that means closing a trade early, moving a stop, as I believe the trade is good, we are just dealing with increased volatility so be it.\r\n\r\nNone of my entries are at 100% position size.\r\n\r\nNot one set-up over the past year has been at 100%. This is pure and simple to allow stop placement flexibility. If you are entering your trades at your 100% position size then you have zero flexibility. If you chose to move your stop in line with my trade suggested changes you are over leveraging yourself. That is dangerous.\r\n\r\nTraders are getting out of Forex because they are over leveraging. Their accounts are dwindling in size and they blame everything and everyone instead of themselves.\r\n\r\nThis is really important to trading longevity. If anyone requires help with leveraging, there are articles in the EDUCATION section of the website. If you cannot find what you need or require additional information, email me and I will set up a SKYPE or FaceTime conversation.\r\n\r\nI have lost two traders this year due to the fact that they were trading standard lots on inappropriately sized trading accounts.\r\n\r\nYes, it is harder to make money from Forex Trading. Liquidity is down. The Asian session trading is sometimes tantamount to gambling. However, if we are aware of these factors, we adjust our mindset and get on with it. Psychology in trading is under estimated in my opinion and it is something that we should all place greater emphasis on.\r\n\r\nThere are no quick fixes in Forex; tried and tested methodology will win through but we seem to be given one wall to climb, then another is placed in front of us and then yet another.\r\n\r\nThe solution for now is to knuckle down and trade a little smaller with a little wider stop losses in position to cope with increased volatility (I feel like I have been writing that sentence off and on for over two years now).\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>4.2: TRADE STYLE DEFINITIONS:</strong>\r\n\r\n<u>4.2.1: RADAR TRADES:\r\n</u>These are pre-meditated entry trades set from either Fibonacci levels, pivot points or previous support and resistance based off a combination of horizontal or trend line support or resistance.\r\nThe goal is always if possible to swing trade these trades by establishing a position that if market conditions apply allow the trade to gather traction and develop into a longer-term position trade.\r\n\r\n<u>4.2.2: FLASH TRADES:\r\n</u>Mainly simply, opportunist trades in LIVE market conditions. These trades are either based off a pullback strategy, a GIMME10 pips strategy, or off momentum in a trading pair at the time of entry.\r\nThe goal is to either take 10-30 pips or see a sufficient move to place a protective stop in place to see if a swing trade develops.\r\nSome FLASH TRADES may form part of an overall trading plan with a given currency pair, but the entry could not be made via a LIMIT ORDER.\r\nIn addition in 2016, some FLASH TRADES can be of a longer duration, with very specific goals.\r\n\r\n<u>4.2.3: FUNDAMENTAL TRADES:\r\n</u>These will be trades based off my TRADING PLAN goals for trades in line with my longer-term market views.\r\nTrades in this area will use in addition Fibonacci levels, Pivot points, trend lines and prior support and resistance levels, weekly and monthly ATR’s (Average True Ranges) when setting Stop Loss levels.\r\nThese trades are hopefully of a longer-term nature. They will be initially “single-lot” sized trades due to the wider stop placements that will be applied.\r\n\r\n<u>4.2.4: PART-TIME TRADER TRADES: (Soon to change):\r\n</u>These trade set-ups are intended to have a longer-term trading perspective. They are not only targeted at traders who consider they are part-time Forex traders; obviously, all traders can of course take advantage. (My definition of a part-time trader is one who is only able to look at their computer screens, or, mobile devices to check trades two or three times a day).\r\nA key feature of these set-ups is that they have much wider than normal stops to allow for market swings and volatility. The trades therefore have a smaller position size to allow for the swings in volatility, but multiple trades in the same currency pair are added when the core trade has gained traction in the desired direction.\r\nMy goal is to have multiple trades open/live at any one time and maybe 2/3 open/live trades with the same currency pair. I will of course suggest to take some profits along the way, but hopefully at the same time letting trades run as far as possible.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>4.3: THE PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE SPREADSHEETS (INCLUDING LIVE &amp; LIMIT ORDER TRADES):</strong><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nFull and complete details surrounding these trades can be found inside the PREMIUM SERVICE on my website. These can be found on the spreadsheets on the website.\r\n\r\n<strong>4.4: REVIEW OF OPEN LIMIT ORDER TRADES NOT YET TRIGGERED:</strong>\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.1: RADAR LIMIT ORDER TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\nRT664 – NZD/USD:\r\nThis is a sell stop order from last week based on moving below lows of the day. I will keep this for a while as I am still bearish this pair.\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.2: FUNDAMENTAL LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n</u>\r\n\r\nFUN278 – GBP/NZD:\r\nAnother set-up to add to the longer-term trade; this one is set to trigger well above trend line resistance. I will need to re-evaluate, as the slope of the trend line is a lot lower now.\r\n\r\nFUN310 – EUR/CHF:\r\nThis trade is in play as a BUY STOP order over last Friday’s HOD.\r\n\r\nFUN311 – EUR/GBP:\r\nBased off a head and shoulders pattern. It is only invalidated by a move above 0.7850.\r\n\r\n<u>4.4.3: PART-TIME TRADER LIMIT ORDER TRADES: </u>\r\n\r\nPART045 – GBP/NZD:\r\nAnother set-up to add to the longer-term trade; this one is set to trigger well above trend line resistance. I will need to re-evaluate, as the slope of the trend line is a lot lower now\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n	<li><strong> COMING UP THIS WEEK:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5.1: THIS WEEK’S FOREX NEWS THAT INTERESTS ME:</u>\r\n\r\n(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market other than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to <a href=\"http://www.forexfactory.com\">www.forexfactory.com</a> and <a href=\"http://www.tradingeconomics.com\">www.tradingeconomics.com</a> for a more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).\r\nSUNDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: AUD – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: BOJ – Press Conference and Monetary Policy Statement.\r\nTUESDAY: USD – PPI and Retail Sales.\r\nTUESDAY: NZD – GDT Price Index.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: GBP – Unemployment Data and Annual Budget.\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – CPi and Core CPi.\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – FOMC Statement, Rate, Projections &amp; Press Conference.\r\nWEDNESDAY: NZD – GDP.\r\nWEDNESDAY: AUD – Employment Data.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: SNB – Libor Rate and Monetary Policy Statement.\r\nTHURSDAY: GBP – BOE Bank Rate and Policy Summary\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: CAD – Core Retail Sales and Core CPi.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>5.2: THE USD MAJORS SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS: </u>\r\n\r\n(In this section I have as usual kept my charts as minimalist as possible. With regards to charting in my opinion less is more!! I hope that they are clear. All readers regardless of level of experience should be able to follow my thoughts from my comments to the levels on the charts with ease)\r\n\r\nMy comments are contained on the charts. If you have difficulty getting them to expand please let me know. Sometimes word press is difficult.\r\n\r\nThis week, I have decided to break the usual approach and look at monthly charts instead of daily charts. This is in response to feedback, when I was asked for a more macro level view.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nEUR/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.1145\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/eurusd-m-12032016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7428\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7428\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/EURUSD-M-12032016-1024x509.png\" alt=\"EURUSD M 12032016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"509\" /></a>\r\n\r\nGBP/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.4386\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/gbpusd-m-12032016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7429\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7429\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/GBPUSD-M-12032016-1024x509.png\" alt=\"GBPUSD M 12032016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"509\" /></a>\r\n\r\nAUD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.7559\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/audusd-m-12032016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7427\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7427\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/AUDUSD-M-12032016-1024x509.png\" alt=\"AUDUSD M 12032016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"509\" /></a>\r\n\r\nNZD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.6742\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/nzdusd-m-12032016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7430\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7430\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/NZDUSD-M-12032016-1024x509.png\" alt=\"NZDUSD M 12032016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"509\" /></a>\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.3215\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/usdcad-m-12032016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7431\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7431\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDCAD-M-12032016-1024x509.png\" alt=\"USDCAD M 12032016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"509\" /></a>\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF - Weekly Closing Price: 0.9825\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/usdchf-m-12032016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7432\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7432\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDCHF-M-12032016-1024x509.png\" alt=\"USDCHF M 12032016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"509\" /></a>\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY - Weekly Closing Price: 113.81\r\n\r\n<u><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/usdjpy-m-12032016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7433\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7433\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDJPY-M-12032016-1024x509.png\" alt=\"USDJPY M 12032016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"509\" /></a></u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.3: CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nAnother big week for news lies ahead of us.\r\n\r\nWe have another three central banks with rate announcements, this time it’s the BOJ, SNB and BOE.\r\n\r\nUnless Thomas Jordan at the SNB does another “gob smacker”, I am expecting this week to be focused on the FED and the FOMC with Janet Yellen’s press conference.\r\n\r\nWe should also note that we have employment data from the GBP and AUD.\r\n\r\nAs always, be savvy…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nTake care,\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>','IF NOT MONETARY POLICY… THEN WHAT?','','inherit','closed','closed','','7434-revision-v1','','','2016-03-12 07:58:15','2016-03-12 12:58:15','',7434,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/7434-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(7442,1,'2016-03-12 08:26:16','2016-03-12 13:26:16','<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li><strong> INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nPrior to the past week, the previous two weeks of trading were painful for me. From the Boris Johnson BREXIT sell off in the cable, which was followed by severe ice storms which left me without either power or any ISP’s operating for two days. It took time to re-focus and gather one’s thoughts / patterns again.\r\n\r\nThankfully, this past week was a good one. In “my week in hell” All of my PREMIUM SERVICE pip gains for 2016 were erased and last week I replaced 75% of them. I am on a roll as they say in Vegas! I am still confident of generating 10,000 pips this year as I did in 2014 and 2015.\r\n\r\nAdding in my weekly weather check…. We are thawing here, just off the island of Montreal. Soon the snow and ice will be gone. My wife and I can walk the dogs again without fear of being run over by snow ploughs, and I can trade from the terrace in the sun close to a fully functional BBQ. Yes, the summer routine should be back in play very soon once again, with a bit of luck.\r\n\r\nFinally, in this section, just to remind you; you could be the next winner of a free PREMIUM SERVICE (SILVER) subscription; if you subscribe to receive this free blog via my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nYou are automatically entered into a free monthly draw, once you’ve subscribed. Each month during 2016 one lucky blog subscriber will receive a free subscription to the PREMIUM SERVICE (SILVER).\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>2.1: WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber, fee based trade set-up option for Forex traders regardless of experience or background. I provide traders suggested trades, and some market commentary related to open trades or factors within the overall market that have my interest.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and the various trade styles plus how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nAdditional information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE you will require a PayPal account.\r\n\r\n<u>2.2: PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE THIS MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>NET PIPS THIS MONTH SO FAR:            +1,546\r\n</strong><strong>NET PIPS THIS YEAR SO FAR:                +1,414</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>NET PIPS 2015        +10,686\r\n</strong><strong>NET PIPS 2014        +11,209</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">(I trade basically for 10 months a year. I do not trade from mid July through early September or mid December through early January).</p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nIf you want more data or detail about the performance and the tabs on my website landing page do not answer your questions, contact me directly and I will supply the trading data you require. There are NO secrets. There are many, many spreadsheets detailing performance trade by trade and by trade and by trading style, way too many to place in this blog. If you are interested in the PREMIUM SERVICE and want more information, all you have to do is ask.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>3.1: LAST WEEK’S NEWS – MY THOUGHTS:</strong>\r\n\r\nWhat a feck of a week we just had.\r\n\r\nJesus, Mary and Joseph, I said last week that “CENTRAL BANKS TAKE CENTRE STAGE”, even one of my heroes, Mick Jagger, would have had difficulty managing and working that stage.\r\n\r\nWe had the BOC, RBNZ and ECB all dominating Forex traders minds regarding trading and to set the week off just prior to the BOC statement we had Mark Carney with testimony in front of a Treasury Select Committee hearing where Carney was talking about the BREXIT… deep joy and what fun.\r\n\r\nMy review of these four events is as follows: -\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUK TREASURY SELECT COMMITTEE HEARING:\r\n\r\nMy first comment about this was how awfully, “awfully” the chaps were. There was none of the GOP debate nonsense of small hands, calling people liars, chokers, no wetting one’s trousers’, no spray tans and the bible never came up once. The most heated it got was when Euro-skeptic MP Jacob Rees-Mogg addressed Carney with a “with due respect”.\r\n\r\nYou have got to love old blighty, the U.S. has Ted Cruz, Bernie Sanders, Donald Trump, Mitt Romney and Little Marco… the Brits have a Jacob Rees-Mogg, married to a Helena de Chair with a sibling named Annunziata Rees-Mogg. Bollocks to the U.S., the Brits have a history and they have names that age like a good bottle of Corton, which, is in complete contrast to the bottle of BUD comparison of the Teds, Bernie’s, Mitts and Donald’s of this world. I mean what sex is that sibling, it sounds female but is it? However, Jacob and Helena have a son named Tom Wentworth Somerset Dunstan Rees-Mogg, I would like to see how VISA and MasterCard cope with that!\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nThe 3 hours or so of questions and answers were the usual toing and froing that one sees in the UK. No rambles of statements pretending to be questions that Janet Yellen faces when she is giving her testimony on Capital Hill.\r\n\r\nCarney was accused of being pro-EU and he stood his ground. He had apparently not conducted through the BOE any scenarios of effects should the BREXIT occur. Brave man, however, I do not believe in a million years that not one single paper has been produced inside the BOE with what their strategies are.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nBOC:\r\n\r\nNo press conference this time and guess what? All is just fecking brilliant here in Canada. The snows are melting exposing potholes all over the roads here in Quebec. The mass of concrete that is so heavy in the crumbling infrastructure of Montreal, crumbles away some more. We had a massive sinkhole this week in Montreal. Jobs are disappearing from the prosperous provinces of Alberta and British Columbia. The chances of a housing bubble in Vancouver and Toronto are still there, prices are not giving up. However, from the thick pile cushioned carpets inside the BOC all are warm and cuddly.\r\n\r\nStephen Poloz is banking on Justin Trudeau’s first budget on the 22<sup>nd</sup> March to provide fiscal stimulus to cure all the issues facing the Canadian economy. Lets see how that goes.\r\n\r\nFor now rates are on hold.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nRBNZ:\r\n\r\nGraeme Wheeler in a market surprise event cut interest rates by 0.25%. He promised more should matters Kiwi not improve. I notice that another 0.25% has been penciled in prior to the completion of Q2.\r\n\r\nThe one thing I noticed from reading the statement and listening to the press conference and parliament speech was the number of times China was mentioned. I don\'t think that Wheeler is planning a vacation, more just shitt**g his pants as China is New Zealand’s largest trading partner and the slowdown and hard landing that we all know is coming is starting to bite, and bite hard.\r\n\r\nSelling the NZD on spikes would seem to be a great trade for the time being.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nECB:\r\n\r\nWTF! - Draghi throws the kitchen sink in. He did not hold back and instead of the EUR weakening it strengthened. It shot up so fast off 1.0820, like a rat up a drain pipe, and it rallied from 1.0820 to over 1.1200, 4 cents in one session an unbelievable move.\r\n\r\nDraghi cut, added, added some more stimuli and at the end basically fecked up by saying that\'s about it, no more scope, nothing more to do now. At that point the EUR/USD and crosses spiked. I watched not believing the squeeze that took place.\r\n\r\nWho would be Draghi pouring out his fruit loops this morning reading all the media coverage about the press conference? Wiedmann at the Bundesbank, will be handing Mario a huge slice of I told you so soon, if he hasn’t already done so.\r\n\r\nWhat happened though has much wider implications, which I will look at later in the blog. The impact of post ECB has wider implications for Central Banks, Governments will take note, and, it filters all the way down to us Forex Traders on how we approach the markets moving forward.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>3.2: WHAT’S ON MY MIND:</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">IF NOT MONETARY POLICY… THEN WHAT?\r\n(This is a line taken from “IN DEFENCE OF MONETARY POLICY” written by Vitor Constancio, Vice President of the ECB. It was written the day following the latest ECB Press Conference)</p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe latest ECB press conference was the second one from which the markets poo-pooed the ECB stimulus and the single currency strengthened instead of weakening. One occasion is a freak; the second is a pattern… but why?\r\n\r\nDraghi unleashed aggressive monetary stimulus.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Refinancing Rate cut from 0% to 0.05%.</strong>\r\n<strong>Overnight deposit negative rates increased from -0.3% to -0.4%.</strong>\r\n<strong>QE increased to €80 billion per month from €60 billion per month.</strong>\r\n<strong> New 4 year TLTRO’s.</strong>\r\n<strong> Asset Purchases to now include Corporate Bonds</strong>\r\n<strong> He then also lowered 2016 and 2017 GDP and Inflation Forecasts.</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Lets face facts the above is strong stimulus and collectively they are worthy of the title “BAZOOKA”.</p>\r\nWhat went wrong?\r\n\r\nWhy did the market react the way it did?\r\n\r\nI have a hard time believing that a 4-cent rise in the EUR/USD exchange rate on the day could not all be attributed to the fact that the ECB believe that they have done enough. I say that in the complete knowledge that the FX market is at times mental and appears to outsiders, and us traders sometimes, to be totally dysfunctional.\r\n\r\nThe fact that Vitor Constancio released his memorandum the following day says it all for me. Briefly, he stated that the stimulus provided was in response to the vocal skepticism in the media and markets about the prior ECB package in play. He went on to say that fiscal and structural reforms are welcome but across all the member states of the EUROZONE would have implementation issues as parliaments are all different and different time lines would be in play and laws may be restrictive. Plus not all member states would adopt fiscal policy changes whether they needed to or not. Structural reforms are too long to implement.\r\n\r\nHe summarizes with the comments that in the EURO area, higher growth is urgently required to reduce negative output and unemployment gaps.\r\n\r\nHe ends his final sentence with IF NOT MONETARY POLICY, THEN WHAT?\r\n\r\nMy thoughts are, if central bank monetary policy no longer influences exchange rates, we have a huge problem.\r\n\r\nStock markets should have been flying as a result of the ECB stimulus. We got a sell off. This has wider implications for those people who have pensions etc linked into the stock market.\r\n\r\nThe same thing happened after the BOJ introduced negative overnight interest rates. A massive sell–off followed.\r\n\r\nThis is volatility that is not expected. One of the key roles and responsibility of a central bank is that of creating and maintaining price stability, and at the same time removing uncertainty.\r\n\r\nAfter the ECB and BOJ we have uncertainty. We now have risks that we never thought that we would have. Stimulus normally means stock market bullishness.\r\n\r\nWill this reaction to the ECB affect the FED and the SNB?\r\n\r\nWe have an FOMC meeting this week. The fact that Draghi and the ECB was so accommodative, one would think that if they wanted it to, this would have supported the FED being hawkish. I somehow believe that the FED will hold until the end of Q2 before raising again, although even if it raised rates this week I think it would have a minimal effect.\r\n\r\nThomas Jordan (SNB) must have been an interested on-looker last Thursday. I have no doubt he will NOT want the CHF to strengthen and intervention could happen at any time. Even with negative interest rates there could still be a safety play at some time for the CHF pairs. The EUR will weaken over time and Jordan will want to be proactive rather than reactive with his actions.\r\n\r\nStepping back…\r\n\r\nWhen you first start trading you are aware that central bank monetary policy is the cornerstone to a currencies behavior. If you cannot rely on that what do you have?\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, confusion and uncertainty come into play, which, I believe manifests itself as FEAR and GREED. FEAR and GREED rule FX at the best of times even when there is nothing to FEAR. If markets no longer take a Viagra pill on the back of currency stimulus we have to start re-thinking about correlations next.\r\n\r\nWithout doubt it means that we should be cautious and let the dust settle down for a few days. Certainly the FED meeting this week will be one event to follow with interest. Will the FED still demand respect?\r\n\r\nThe ECB is arguably the biggest central bank in the world. The BOJ is in the top three without doubt. If the FED gets paid lip service we do have a problem moving forward.\r\n\r\nThe risks across all markets should this be the case should not be under estimated. Should the equity markets move lower, the corrections could be greater than we thought possible and then we have FEAR, followed by GREED.\r\n\r\nWaiting for fiscal and structural changes may be the way, but they are not instant to re-invigorating an economy. They take time. If Central Bank monetary policy is truly now sterile and markets immune to the effects, we could end up in chaos with an unruly sell–off. There would be a run to both GOLD and CASH.\r\n\r\nPersonally, I have never traded in a period when central bank policies were almost ignored by the markets. With the FED meeting this week, its commentary takes on another level of interest and reaction in my eyes given what has recently happened with the BOJ and ECB.\r\n\r\nI do not want to get doom and gloom orientated but I do believe we have big issues facing markets in the near term. If monetary policy just isn’t enough on its own for the immediate future, we have issues to address.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) EXCLUSIVE CONTENT:\r\n</strong>(This area contains exclusive content for PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) subscribers)</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n	<li><strong> COMING UP THIS WEEK:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5.1: THIS WEEK’S FOREX NEWS THAT INTERESTS ME:</u>\r\n\r\n(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market other than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to <a href=\"http://www.forexfactory.com\">www.forexfactory.com</a> and <a href=\"http://www.tradingeconomics.com\">www.tradingeconomics.com</a> for a more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).\r\nSUNDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: AUD – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: BOJ – Press Conference and Monetary Policy Statement.\r\nTUESDAY: USD – PPI and Retail Sales.\r\nTUESDAY: NZD – GDT Price Index.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: GBP – Unemployment Data and Annual Budget.\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – CPi and Core CPi.\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – FOMC Statement, Rate, Projections &amp; Press Conference.\r\nWEDNESDAY: NZD – GDP.\r\nWEDNESDAY: AUD – Employment Data.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: SNB – Libor Rate and Monetary Policy Statement.\r\nTHURSDAY: GBP – BOE Bank Rate and Policy Summary\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: CAD – Core Retail Sales and Core CPi.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>5.2: THE USD MAJORS SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS: </u>\r\n\r\n(In this section I have as usual kept my charts as minimalist as possible. With regards to charting in my opinion less is more!! I hope that they are clear. All readers regardless of level of experience should be able to follow my thoughts from my comments to the levels on the charts with ease)\r\n\r\nMy comments are contained on the charts. If you have difficulty getting them to expand please let me know. Sometimes word press is difficult.\r\n\r\nThis week, I have decided to break the usual approach and look at monthly charts instead of daily charts. This is in response to feedback, when I was asked for a more macro level view.\r\n\r\nEUR/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.1145\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/not-monetary-policy/eurusd-m-12032016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7428\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7428\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/EURUSD-M-12032016-1024x509.png\" alt=\"EURUSD M 12032016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"509\" /></a>\r\n\r\nGBP/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.4386\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/not-monetary-policy/gbpusd-m-12032016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7429\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7429\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/GBPUSD-M-12032016-1024x509.png\" alt=\"GBPUSD M 12032016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"509\" /></a>\r\n\r\nAUD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.7559\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/not-monetary-policy/audusd-m-12032016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7427\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7427\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/AUDUSD-M-12032016-1024x509.png\" alt=\"AUDUSD M 12032016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"509\" /></a>\r\n\r\nNZD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.6742\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/not-monetary-policy/nzdusd-m-12032016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7430\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7430\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/NZDUSD-M-12032016-1024x509.png\" alt=\"NZDUSD M 12032016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"509\" /></a>\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.3215\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/not-monetary-policy/usdcad-m-12032016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7431\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7431\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDCAD-M-12032016-1024x509.png\" alt=\"USDCAD M 12032016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"509\" /></a>\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF - Weekly Closing Price: 0.9825\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/not-monetary-policy/usdchf-m-12032016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7432\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7432\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDCHF-M-12032016-1024x509.png\" alt=\"USDCHF M 12032016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"509\" /></a>\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY - Weekly Closing Price: 113.81\r\n\r\n<u><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/not-monetary-policy/usdjpy-m-12032016/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7433\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7433\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/USDJPY-M-12032016-1024x509.png\" alt=\"USDJPY M 12032016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"509\" /></a></u>\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3: CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nAnother big week for news lies ahead of us.\r\n\r\nWe have another three central banks with rate announcements, this time it’s the BOJ, SNB and BOE.\r\n\r\nUnless Thomas Jordan at the SNB does another “gob smacker”, I am expecting this week to be focused on the FED and the FOMC with Janet Yellen’s press conference.\r\n\r\nWe should also note that we have employment data from the GBP and AUD.\r\n\r\nAs always, be savvy…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nTake care,\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\r\n</a>DATE: 12<sup>th</sup> March 2016\r\nBLOG REFERENCE: #192 FREE NEWSLETTER','IF NOT MONETARY POLICY… THEN WHAT?','','publish','open','closed','','not-monetary-policy','','','2016-03-12 08:26:16','2016-03-12 13:26:16','',0,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?p=7442',0,'post','',0),