INSERT INTO `vp_backup_wp_posts` VALUES (2120,1,'2013-12-07 13:00:48','2013-12-07 18:00:48','07.12.2014\n\nFor subscribers I apologise...Wordpress got the better of me with the original posting.\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">1. INTRODUCTION:</span></b>\n\nWhat an interesting week, so many high-level news events culminating with NFP (US Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate) yesterday (Friday).  So many fascinating subjects that caught my eye, and probably being very predictable my main theme for the blog this week revolves around the ECB. My own twist…follows later\n\nA great week on my RADAR TRADES, below I include an excel spread sheet (this type of spreadsheet will be published each week in the secure area of the Weekly Fx Drive-Thru for PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers), highlighting the tweeted trades following last weekend’s Weekly Fx Drive-Thru.\n\nA 356 pip profit from 9 trades. Depending on what type of lot size you trade, dictates the corresponding profit, but for single lot trades I highlight the profit that could have been made using my RADAR TRADES: -\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"> 1 x MICRO-LOT:\n9 trades at $0.10 cents each = $0.90 cents risk for a $35.60 reward.</p>\n<p align=\"center\">1 x MINI-LOT:\n9 trades at $1.00 each = $9.00 risk for a $356.60 reward.</p>\n<p align=\"center\">1 x STANDARD LOT:\n9 trades at $10.00 each = $90.00 risk for a $3,560.00 reward.</p>\n&nbsp;\n\n&nbsp;\n<table style=\"width: 460px;\" border=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\"><colgroup> <col width=\"19\" /> <col width=\"37\" /> <col width=\"60\" /> <col width=\"30\" /> <col width=\"41\" /> <col width=\"54\" /> <col width=\"40\" /> <col width=\"47\" /> <col width=\"39\" /> <col width=\"48\" /> <col width=\"45\" /> </colgroup>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"19\" height=\"15\"></td>\n<td width=\"37\"></td>\n<td width=\"60\"></td>\n<td width=\"30\"></td>\n<td width=\"41\"></td>\n<td width=\"54\"></td>\n<td width=\"40\"></td>\n<td width=\"47\"></td>\n<td width=\"39\"></td>\n<td width=\"48\"></td>\n<td width=\"45\"></td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\"></td>\n<td></td>\n<td colspan=\"4\">THE PREMIUM SERVICE</td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\"></td>\n<td></td>\n<td colspan=\"7\">RADAR TRADES - WITH TRIGGERED ENTRIES</td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\"></td>\n<td></td>\n<td colspan=\"5\">SUMMARY - DECEMBER 2013</td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"15\"></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"15\"></td>\n<td>TRADE</td>\n<td>PAIR</td>\n<td>L/S</td>\n<td>ENTRY</td>\n<td>ENTRY</td>\n<td>EXIT</td>\n<td>EXIT</td>\n<td>PIP</td>\n<td>PIP</td>\n<td>STILL</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"15\"></td>\n<td>#</td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td>DATE</td>\n<td>PRICE</td>\n<td>DATE</td>\n<td>PRICE</td>\n<td>LOSS</td>\n<td>PROFIT</td>\n<td>ACTIVE</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"15\"></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"15\"></td>\n<td>1</td>\n<td>GBP/NZD</td>\n<td>L</td>\n<td>3rd</td>\n<td>1.9918</td>\n<td>4th</td>\n<td>1.9947</td>\n<td></td>\n<td>29</td>\n<td></td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"15\"></td>\n<td>2</td>\n<td>USD/CHF</td>\n<td>L</td>\n<td>3rd</td>\n<td>0.9050</td>\n<td>4th</td>\n<td>0.9060</td>\n<td></td>\n<td>10</td>\n<td></td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"15\"></td>\n<td>3</td>\n<td>EUR/USD</td>\n<td>S</td>\n<td>3rd</td>\n<td>1.3575</td>\n<td>4th</td>\n<td>1.3549</td>\n<td></td>\n<td>26</td>\n<td></td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"15\"></td>\n<td>4</td>\n<td>NZD/USD</td>\n<td>S</td>\n<td>3rd</td>\n<td>0.8250</td>\n<td>4th</td>\n<td>0.8201</td>\n<td></td>\n<td>49</td>\n<td></td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"15\"></td>\n<td>5</td>\n<td>EUR/NZD</td>\n<td>L</td>\n<td>3rd</td>\n<td>1.6459</td>\n<td>4th</td>\n<td>1.6576</td>\n<td></td>\n<td>52</td>\n<td></td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"15\"></td>\n<td>6</td>\n<td>EUR/CAD</td>\n<td>L</td>\n<td>4th</td>\n<td>1.4462</td>\n<td>4th</td>\n<td>1.4524</td>\n<td></td>\n<td>62</td>\n<td></td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"15\"></td>\n<td>7</td>\n<td>EUR/CAD</td>\n<td>L</td>\n<td>5th</td>\n<td>1.4550</td>\n<td>6th</td>\n<td>1.4590</td>\n<td></td>\n<td>40</td>\n<td></td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"15\"></td>\n<td>8</td>\n<td>EUR/AUD</td>\n<td>L</td>\n<td>5th</td>\n<td>1.5100</td>\n<td>6th</td>\n<td>1.5137</td>\n<td></td>\n<td>38</td>\n<td></td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"15\"></td>\n<td>9</td>\n<td>AUD/USD</td>\n<td>S</td>\n<td>5th</td>\n<td>0.9066</td>\n<td>6th</td>\n<td>0.9016</td>\n<td></td>\n<td>50</td>\n<td></td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"15\"></td>\n<td>10</td>\n<td>NZD/USD</td>\n<td>S</td>\n<td>6th</td>\n<td>0.8270</td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td>YES</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"15\"></td>\n<td>11</td>\n<td>AUD/NZD</td>\n<td>B</td>\n<td>6th</td>\n<td>1.0975</td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td>YES</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"15\"></td>\n<td>12</td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"15\"></td>\n<td>13</td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"15\"></td>\n<td>14</td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"15\"></td>\n<td>15</td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"15\"></td>\n<td>16</td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"15\"></td>\n<td>17</td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"15\"></td>\n<td>18</td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"15\"></td>\n<td>19</td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"15\"></td>\n<td>20</td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"15\"></td>\n<td>21</td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"15\"></td>\n<td>22</td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"15\"></td>\n<td>23</td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"15\"></td>\n<td>24</td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"15\"></td>\n<td>25</td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"15\"></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"15\"></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"15\"></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"15\"></td>\n<td></td>\n<td colspan=\"4\">POTENTIAL TRADING PROFITS</td>\n<td></td>\n<td>TOTALS</td>\n<td align=\"right\">0</td>\n<td align=\"right\">356</td>\n<td></td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"15\"></td>\n<td></td>\n<td colspan=\"4\">(Based on single lot trades only)</td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"15\"></td>\n<td>Micro Lots</td>\n<td></td>\n<td align=\"right\">356</td>\n<td align=\"right\">$0.10</td>\n<td align=\"right\">$35.60</td>\n<td></td>\n<td>NET</td>\n<td align=\"right\">356</td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"15\"></td>\n<td>Mini Lots</td>\n<td></td>\n<td align=\"right\">356</td>\n<td align=\"right\">$1.00</td>\n<td align=\"right\">$356.00</td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"15\"></td>\n<td>Standard Lots</td>\n<td></td>\n<td align=\"right\">356</td>\n<td align=\"right\">$10.00</td>\n<td align=\"right\">$3,560.00</td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"15\"></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n<td></td>\n</tr>\n</tbody>\n</table>\n<a href=\"http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/PREM-SERV-TRADES-DEC-2013.xlsx\"> </a>\n\n&nbsp;\n\nDetails of my new PREMIUM SERVICE that gives you the option to follow the RADAR TRADES follows later in this blog and soon I will be announcing how and when subscribers can register.\n\n&nbsp;\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">2.  SOME OF MY OWN THOUGHTS ON LONGER-TERM TRADING…I THINK AS TRADERS WE HAVE TO ADAPT</span></b></p>\nI think I’ve said this before, but I will say it again. Several of the world’s Central Bank Governors such as RBA Stevens, RBNZ Wheeler, ECB Draghi and BOJ Kuroda must wonder what the hell is going on with the markets reaction to their press statements made on longer-term policies versus the day to day amnesia that seems to play out via the markets reaction to minor news or some political numpty somewhere having their 30 seconds of fame via a TV sound-byte. I know that it is a game, market activists have basically zero memory and are almost 100% re-active. When experts say that the markets have “priced in” certain events, that is complete and utter bullsh** most of the time.\n\nLet me use RBA Stevens as my example. He has stated personally, and the RBA statements have read for the past three / four months maybe even longer, that the AUD is over-priced. They targeted in a published report months and months ago that 0.8500- 0.8800 was the goal for the AUD/USD exchange rate. To say this 5/6 years ago was enough to strike fear in the markets and the AUD/USD would be at its guide price by now. In 2013, you need QE (Quantitative Easing policies), direct intervention in the money markets and talk of negative rates to be believed these days.\n\nWhilst the AUD/USD has come down from levels of around 1.0600, and it subsequently broke parity, it is now struggling to break below 0.9000. This, despite an increased volume in chatter from the RBA to the markets to re-emphasize their position.\n\nMy point is, if you believe the fundamentals, you will have to trade your longer-term positions with very wide stops and be very, very patient. You are now going to be in these trades for the long haul. This brings issues to be considered. You will have to be picky on which pairs to trade longer-term because of the overnight swap terms from your broker…it could be very costly to have a long term short in the AUD/USD, and on the other side very costly to have a longer-term long in EUR/AUD.\n\nI am not saying do not trade longer-term but unless you have a modest position size and it is a very swift momentum move trade that allows you to back up profits and protect them to cover “swap costs” you have to question the validity of the trade.\n\n<b></b><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">\n</span></b>\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">3. THE VIEW FROM MY TRADING DESK: </span></b>\n\n<b></b><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">\n</span></b>\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">DOES DRAGHI NOW TALK WITH A GERMAN ACCENT?</span></b></p>\nThe highlight of the past week’s news events for me was the ECB press conference. I just love these, I used to train on “Body Language” amongst many other subjects in a previous life, and, Draghi’s body language is fantastic to watch.\n\nOver recent meetings his gesturing leads you to believe that he is not comfortable with what he is reading and not comfortable with his replies to questions. I would love to see does he shake his foot like Christian Horner the team principal of the Infiniti Red Bull Racing F1 team. The TV stations love to show shots of him nervously shaking his foot against his stool whilst on the pit lane to calm his nerves.\n\nDraghi has displayed several nervous hand gestures, over recent meetings, covering his mouth and waving a little, although his waving may have been his Italian heritage prior to the installation of the microchip from Berlin being installed. His nerves could also be due to the fact his testicles are hard-wired to the electrics, with the Bundesbank controlling the switch at the other end should he speak out of turn\n\nMoving on, last Thursdays press conference was another classic Draghi performance…I watched it via an internet channel. I am still finding it difficult to see the strings above his arms and I cannot see Angela Merkel on the chair with her hand up the back of his shirt controlling his speech, but I am convinced that there must at least be an earpiece connection to Berlin, and, maybe the testicle connection as well!\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">DEFLATION</span></b></p>\nThere it is………….. I have written the word that no central bankers want to utter.  DEFLATION…bugger I wrote it again. They (Central Bankers) use dis-inflation or say that there is no-inflation…but never deflation. Simply because the word spreads fear amongst the market players.\n\nAt the November ECB Press Conference Draghi caught the market off guard by cutting interest rates by 0.25% to a record low Eurozone level of 0.25%. When he reduced rates, one could say it was a knee-jerk reaction to a data dump only a week earlier where GDP and CPi reports showed that there was no inflation in the Eurozone and that growth was virtually negative across the board excepting Germany. To say it was a knee-jerk reaction may be harsh, but the ECB normally warn of rate movements and they certainly do nothing hasty.\n\nFollowing this rate cut, we had many ECB high-flyers (see last weeks blog) quoting “Negative Interest Rates”, further LTRO’s (Long Term Re-Financing Options) and other special measures to “Kick-Start” several Eurozone economies.\n\nOne month later, and probably after a course of  “Electric Shock treatments in Berlin” - questions were directly asked of Draghi at Thursday’s press conference on the following subjects: -\n<p align=\"center\"><i> </i></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><i>Deflation</i></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><i>LTRO</i></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><i>Negative Interest Rates</i><i> </i></p>\nHe basically shrugged his shoulders and acted very “off the cuff” (nonchalant) indicating nothing has been discussed, it’s not a problem; Holy Mother of God, he expects us to believe him? Was that a German accent I heard????\n\nNothing has changed in the Eurozone in a month. Except that now, Merkel is trying to fit the coalition government together effectively. However, the aligned parties in Germany are probably adding up what the potential cost could be to Germany if all the balls currently being juggled in the air fall at once, or to coin a potential Eurozone headline in the press;<i> </i>\n<p align=\"center\"><i>“Metal poisoning cripples Brussels and Berlin as all the cans that were kicked down the road activate their homing devices at the same time and come home en mass at the same time”</i><i> </i></p>\nThe periphery countries in the Eurozone must despair at Draghi’s actions. The north / south divide is so apparent. His shrug alone was the catalyst to send the EUR/USD higher towards 1.3700, which by coincidence is 100 pips higher than the level prior to last months rate cut. So the exchange rate policy in place is really helping the periphery…NOT.\n\nI realize that the U.S. government being totally dis-functional does have a part to play in the EUR/USD exchange rate and that the market probably has ruled out tapering until March 2014 at the earliest.\n\nHowever, Draghi and the ECB has a part to play, one would think to help it’s domestic role…obviously not as the German’s rule. There is no open chequebook, no open credit line limits and basically Germany could not give a sh** about the Mediterranean member countries.\n\nI think German sentiment could be changing regarding Eurozone aid / bailouts and membership. I cannot think why they would allow a 100 pip rise in the EUR/USD over the figure they deemed that they had to take action from. Economic data is still poor in general terms.\n\nWatch this space. I think if the EUR/USD breaks 1.3750 it is heading for 1.3900 possibly 1.4000.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">4. MY CURRENT LIVE TRADES:</span></b>\n\nI have two RADAR TRADES in play.\n\n&nbsp;\n<p align=\"center\"><b>NZD/USD\n</b><b>Short\n</b><b>Entry Price: 0.8270\n</b><b>Closing Price: 0.8274\n</b><b>Position Size: 20%\n</b><b>Stop Loss: 0.8340\n</b><b>Target / Limit: 0.7500\n</b><b>Present Position: - 4 pips</b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b> </b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>AUD/NZD\n</b><b>Long\n</b><b>Entry Price: 1.0975\n</b><b>Closing Price: 1 0965\n</b><b>Position Size: 20%\n</b><b>Stop Loss: 1.0854\n</b><b>Target / Limit: 1.1850\n</b><b>Present Position: - 10 pips</b></p>\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">5. TRADES THAT ARE ON MY RADAR:</span></b>\n\nI am starting to wind down for 2013. I think that this coming week will probably be the last one to offer a reasonable trading environment. After this week I think we will get a very thin trading environment and at that stage I start pulling back on my personal trades.\n\nFor now though, I am continuing to look at the exotic crosses.\n\n&nbsp;\n<p align=\"center\">EUR/CAD\nGBP/CAD\nEUR/AUD\nGBP/AUD\nGBP/NZD\nEUR/NZD</p>\n<p align=\"center\">Plus</p>\n<p align=\"center\">AUD/USD\nUSD/CAD\nUSD/CHF</p>\nFollowing NFP (Non Farm Payrolls), I am waiting for some serious pullbacks to take place before re-entering. The exotic pairs are now pulling back and some are consolidating after huge momentum upside moves. There is still plenty of room to the long side with the “Exotics” but it is so important for me to let the trades come to me and I get the entries at the prices that I want.\n\nI want to stress once again, please take care this time of the year. If the market moves against you do not let any of the trades that you are in, in particular these exotic cross-rates listed below get away from you. Cut your losses. Below I have my entries and targets.\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">CURRENCY PAIR</span></b><b>      <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">ENTRY</span>         <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">STOP</span>         <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">TARGET</span>         </b>\n\n&nbsp;\n\nEUR/CAD                              1.4510           1.4400           1.5500\n\nGBP/CAD                              1.7250           1.7065           1.8190\n\nEUR/AUD                              1.4990           1.4750           1.5500\n\nGBP/AUD                              1.7900           1.7750           2.0180\n\nGBP/NZD                              1.9580           1.9400           2.0000\n\nEUR/NZD                              1.6450           1.6350           1.7250\n\n(All of the above trades are long trades\n\nAll of the above pairs are very volatile with huge daily ATR’s. I would recommend that if you decide to take trades with these pairs to take smaller positions with very wide stop losses to accommodate the increased levels of volatility.\n\nAUD/USD (Short)                 0.9210           0.9280           0.8800\n\nUSD/CAD (Long)                 1.0600           1.0520           1.0850\n\nUSD/CHF (Long)                 0.8890           0.8800           0.9250\n\nI must stress and the point that I want to make here is that I am waiting for the trades to come to me. Not all of the above trades may activate but the entry level and the risk associated with these trades is very important.\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b>\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">6. LOOKING FORWARD…THE KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS:</span></b>\n\n<b>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3704.</b>  This pair finished this week over 100 pips higher than last weeks close. I have already spoken a bit about this pair. I see the following levels as interesting ones to watch as we head into the coming week. Upside resistance is at 1.3717 (78.6% Fib. from the last big move) then we look at the100% retracement of 1.3830. Support should be good at 1.3630 then 1.3560.\n\n<b>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.6345. </b>Virtually unchanged in the week, yet if you asked me I would have thought that this pair would have been much higher. The cable is above the weekly chart trend line and seems happy to be above it.  I see the range as 1.6250 to 1.6500, until we break one of these numbers I am not too sure who is in control, buyers or sellers.\n\n<b>AUD/USD: Closing Price 0.9098</b>. I suppose you could say it’s been a little bit of a consolidation week for this pair, as there is little change in closing numbers week on week. That unfortunately does not tell the whole story. This pair has flirted with falling off the cliff edge at 0.9000 a couple of times this week. I do think we are heading to about 0.8500 but it may take some time. I want to get short this pair again around 0.9200. The range to break to get a momentum move is 0.9000 to 0.9200.\n\n<b>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8274</b>.  The AUD/NZD has played havoc with this pair this past week. It shows what effect ‘cross-rate” currencies can have. I am looking for the pair to drop next week below 0.8100. Should that be done I think that then we head lower on a good momentum move to 0.8000 and below. Upside resistance is next at 0.8350.\n\n<b>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.0635.  </b>We are still steady above 1.0600. The range is very simple 1.0600 to 1.0700\n\n<b>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.8910</b>.  Watch the EUR/USD for trade ideas with this pair. I think that there is very little point trading this pair at the moment given the EUR/USD influence. Huge support is just below at 0.8890. Not until we break 0.9250 would I consider that the bulls have control of this pair. SNB meetings are scheduled during the week. Watch the EUR/CHF, if it breaks lower that may be a better indication of what to do with this pair. Remember the floor with the EUR/CHF is at 1.2000<b> </b>\n\n<b>USD/JPY: Closing Price 102.89. </b> I am not trading this pair at the moment. When I am convinced that it’s going to move substantially higher then it drops. Then I think its going to have a big fall…. so it rises. Support is now 102.30 and resistance is at 103.00 then 103.35.\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">7. MAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:</span></b>\n\nSUNDAY: CNY – CPi\n\nMONDAY: N/A\n\nTUESDAY: N/A\n\nWEDNESDAY: NZD – RBNZ Rate Statement and Press Conference.\n\nTHURSDAY: USD – Core Retail Sales &amp; Retail Sales.\n\nFRIDAY: N/A<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b>\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">8. THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</span></b>\n\nAs I mentioned earlier, I am launching a new “Premium Service” for traders who may want to go to the next level of support. The following section highlights what will be in the “Premium Service” and what changes will take place with the Weekly Fx Drive-Thru.\n\n&nbsp;\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU\nPREMIUM SERVICE  2014 </span></b>\n\nAs I mentioned in last weekend’s blog, next year I am looking to introduce a “Premium Service” for those who want it. The “Drive-Thru” in its current format will remain as is; with one exception the  “Radar Trades” will now only be available via the Premium Service. In addition, “Trade Ideas and Set-ups” that are tweeted will now only be available to Premium Service subscribers inside the secure section of the Weekly Fx Drive-Thru. I will also be introducing “Flash Trades” these will be up to the minute as they happen trades.\n\nThe new Premium Service will not just be solely based on Radar Trades. Over the past several months, feedback from subscribers to the “Drive-Thru”, or from readers of the blog via Google+, LinkedIn or Twitter have been raising many questions about Forex Trading in general, such as: -\n\n</p><p align=\"center\"><b> </b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Placing Stops</b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Strategies on entry and exit</b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Working with a Trade Plan</b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>What is a Trade Plan?</b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Risk Assessment</b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>When to fade trades</b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>How to cost average effectively</b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>How to use Trade Zones effectively - Buy Zones and Sell zones</b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Working with Fibonacci levels</b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>How to find a good broker to partner with</b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Chart analysis</b></p>\nThe list is quite extensive, however, it refers to all the recent questions that I have answered.\n\nTo have a learning centre available and to look at the trades that are on my radar at the same time seemed to be a very good fit as a trading philosophy…hence the Premium Service.\n\nI am also looking to do training and information based “Webinars” to Premium Service subscription members, if I have sufficient participants.\n\nWhilst upon first look, it may appear that the Premium Service is directed solely a new traders, or those with intermediate skill levels, please note this is not my intention. Trading can be lonely, and sometimes it is good to feel that you are part of a team. With this in mind, I am thinking that a “Chat Room” style area would be of benefit to all traders to share ideas and trade set-ups. Plus, whether a new trader or experienced trader it is always good to have a library of information available close at hand.\n\nThe Weekly Fx-Drive-Thru will remain, and will continue to be posted weekly on Saturday’s although it will be a shorter version.\n\nThe Midweek Fx Fix will cease immediately and in 2014 the Premium Service will be available to those who want to take advantage. The training and background support material will be added on a regular basis to grow into a library of effective Fx trading tools\n\nWhat are the costs?\n\nMy initial thoughts are as follows: -\n\nThere will be 40 weekly blogs / issues per year (I will not write in the Summer and over Christmas periods), with an unlimited amount of follow ups during the week to review and act upon “Radar Trades” and issues emanating from previous blogs. In addition trade ideas for trades already in play would also be part of the service, as I will be trading my own trade recommendations.\n\nI do not want to become a finance administrator on a daily basis so I want to keep the subscription options as few as possible.\n<p align=\"center\"><b>ANNUAL (40 WEEK) SUBSCRIPTION: $750.00 (this equates to $18.75 per week) </b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>20 WEEKS SUBSCRIPTION: $450.00 (this equates to $22.50 per week) </b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>10 WEEKS SUBSCRIPTION: $250.00 (this equates to $25.00 per week) </b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>(ALL FEES ARE IN USD)</b></p>\nI would like to get your feedback to this proposal.\n\nIf you have the time please respond to me at <a href=\"mailto:scott@pickering.bz\">scott@pickering.bz</a> with your thoughts on the “Premium Service” and whether you think that this is something you would sign up for and take advantage of.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">9. FINAL THOUGHTS:</span></b>\n\nFrom my viewpoint we are facing a very light week on news events, but do not be caught off your guard because there will be a lot of movement based upon the fact that there is still one final FED meeting of 2013 to go…Ben’s last one ever!!\n\nPersonally, I think that this will be my final week of trading in 2013, so my positions, if any, will be small.\n\nWe are heading into ‘silly season” on thin trading volumes. Smaller and thinner trading volumes create wilder moves sometimes based on nothing, and that can cost you money so be careful.\n\nAs always, trade smaller with wider stops to establish your position, only then do you add in, but it should be in line with your trading plan. Do not over-stretch yourself and let the trades come to you. Price your entries and establish your risk prior to taking a trade. This is a sound practice and it works.\n\n&nbsp;\n\nGood luck and take care with your trading.\n\n&nbsp;\n\nScott Pickering\nThe Pip Accumulator\nSaturday December 7<sup>th</sup> 2013\n\nFOLLOW MEAT:\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\nGoogle+/scottpickering\n\n&nbsp;\n\n&nbsp;','DOES DRAGHI NOW TALK WITH A GERMAN ACCENT?','','publish','open','closed','','draghi-now-talk-german-accent-2','','','2013-12-07 13:00:48','2013-12-07 18:00:48','',0,'http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/?p=2120',0,'post','',0),(2098,1,'2013-11-27 13:41:45','2013-11-27 18:41:45','<p align=\"center\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><b>THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU\n</b></span><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><b>PREMIUM SERVICE\n</b></span><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><b> 2014</b></span><b> </b></p>\nAs I mentioned in last weekend’s blog, next year I am looking to introduce a “Premium Service” for those who want it. The “Drive-Thru” in its current format will remain as is; with one exception the  “Radar Trades” will now only be available via the Premium Service.\n\nThe new Premium Service will not just be solely based on Radar Trades. Over the past several months, feedback from subscribers to the “Drive-Thru”, or from readers of the blog via Google+, LinkedIn or Twitter have been raising many questions about Forex Trading in general, such as: -\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Placing Stops</b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Strategies on entry and exit</b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Working with a Trade Plan</b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>What is a Trade Plan?</b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Risk Assessment</b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>When to fade trades</b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>How to cost average effectively</b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>How to use Trade Zones effectively - Buy Zones and Sell zones</b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Working with Fibonacci levels</b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>How to find a good broker to partner with</b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Chart analysis</b></p>\nThe list is quite extensive, however, it refers to all the recent questions that I have answered.\n\nTo have a learning centre available and to look at the trades that are on my radar at the same time seemed to be a very good fit as a trading philosophy…hence the Premium Service.\n\nI am also looking to do training and information based “Webinars” to Premium Service subscription members, if I have sufficient participants.\n\nWhilst upon first look, it may appear that the Premium Service is directed solely a new traders, or those with intermediate skill levels. Please note this is not my intention. Training can be lonely, and sometimes it is good to feel that you are part of a team. With this in mind, I am thinking that a “Chat Room” style area would be of benefit to all traders to share ideas and trade set-ups. Plus, new trader or experienced trader it is always good to have library of information available close at hand.\n\nThe Weekly Fx-Drive-Thru will remain, and will continue to be posted weekly on Saturday’s although it will be a  shorter version.\n\nThe Midweek Fx Fix will cease immediately and in 2014 the Premium Service will be available to those who want to take advantage. The training and background support material will be added on a regular basis to grow into a library of effective Fx trading tools\n\nWhat are the costs?\n\nMy initial thoughts are as follows: -\n\nThere will be 40 weekly blogs / issues per year (I will not write in the Summer and over Christmas periods), with an unlimited amount of follow ups during the week to review and act upon “Radar Trades” and issues emanating from previous blogs. In addition trade ideas for trades already in play would also be part of the service, as I will be trading my own trade recommendations.\n\nI do not want to become a finance administrator on a daily basis so I want to keep the subscription options as few as possible.\n<p align=\"center\"><b>ANNUAL (40 WEEK) SUBSCRIPTION: $750.00 (this equates to $18.75 per week)</b><b> </b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>20 WEEKS SUBSCRIPTION: $450.00 (this equates to $22.50 per week)</b><b> </b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>10 WEEKS SUBSCRIPTION: $250.00 (this equates to $25.00 per week)</b><b> </b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>(ALL FEES ARE IN USD)</b></p>\nI would like to get your feedback to this proposal.\n\nIf you have the time please respond to me at <a href=\"mailto:scott@pickering.bz\">scott@pickering.bz</a> with your thoughts on the “Premium Service” and whether you think that this is something you would sign up for and take advantage of.\n\nThanks,\n\nScott Pickering\nThe Pip Accumulator\nWednesday 27th November 2013.','INTRODUCING...THE PREMIUM SERVICE','','publish','open','closed','','introducing-premium-service','','','2013-11-27 13:41:45','2013-11-27 18:41:45','',0,'http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/?p=2098',0,'post','',0),(2103,1,'2013-11-30 11:24:52','2013-11-30 16:24:52','30.11.2013\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">1. INTRODUCTION:</span></b>\n\nDuring the past week, there were some very profitable end of the year “RADAR” trades. In addition to those that I listed in last weekend’s blog, the NZD/USD short, the EUR/NZD and GBP/NZD long all produced great profits. I took my positions off the table (when I tweeted) probably a little early, as the cross-rate pairs ran even higher. However, at the end of the day one cannot complain when profits are being banked.\n\nI also launched my initial communication regarding the new “Premium Service“ for 2014. Many thanks, to those followers who contacted me and gave some great feedback to the initial communication. I am working with my software guru to refine the login procedures and the mechanics to point subscribers to the new area including the exclusive “Radar Trades”, “Trade Ideas / Set-ups” and “Flash Trades” sections. All will become very clear, very soon.\n\nNext week will probably be my last week for trading in 2013. Previous years have shown me that together with the summer months, trading around these times is a little boring due to little or no momentum as we just tend to range trade but at the same time it is quite risky as there are thinner trading volumes, and it can ruin your broker account balance. It is a crazy time. Given that today one “Bit Coin” is the same value as an ounce of Gold…I rest my case, regarding crazy times!!\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">2. THE VIEW FROM MY TRADING DESK:</span></b>\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">ECB EXECUTIVE BOARD MEMBERS TO STAR IN LONDON WEST END CHRISTMAS PANTOMIME\n</span></b><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">(Order your tickets now from www.wecantagreeonadamnthing.com)</span></b></p>\nOver the past few weeks my headline titles for this blog have been: -\n<p align=\"center\">I BELIEVE THAT THE SMART MONEY IS LEAVING EQUITIES AND MOVING INTO CASH (9<sup>th</sup> November 2013)</p>\n<p align=\"center\">ARE WE HEADING FOR ANOTHER EUROZONE CRISIS (16<sup>th</sup> November 2013)</p>\n<p align=\"center\">THE COMMODITY CURRENCY DIVERGENCE CONTINUES (23<sup>rd</sup> November 2013)</p>\nI try to write as serious as I can but with tongue in cheek at times to keep this blog fresh and different. The last three headline titles are pretty serious titles on serious subjects, and, I think I made some valid points based upon my views.\n\nThis week however its all change. Eurozone numpties are back in play, this time the Executive Board of the ECB, plus many of the Eurozone Central Bank Governor’s comments in the press.\n\nAt the last ECB Interest Rate decision and subsequent Press Conference, Draghi cut interest rates by 0.25%. The EUR/USD dropped like a lead balloon from about 1.3600 to 1.3300 and ever since has been recovering. It now sits back around 1.3600. The periphery Eurozone countries who frankly needed the rate cut must be in some despair given the fact that EUR/USD has strengthened by pulling back by over 300 pips. They need help to reduce unemployment amongst many other important matters and lower banking costs to try and help them become more competitive and export. The lower exchange rate as you could imagine would help tremendously.\n\nWhat has astounded and I must admit amused me are the actions by the Executive Board of the ECB, which, is responsible for policy implementation. You would expect complete harmony in approach, total policy agreement, complete 100% unity and agreement on direction. Yeah…right!\n\nThe Executive Board only have four key responsibilities: -\n<ol>\n	<li>To prepare Governing Council Meetings.</li>\n	<li>To implement monetary policy for the Eurozone in accordance with the guidelines specified and decisions taken by the Governing Council. In so doing, it gives the necessary instructions to the Eurozone NCB’s.</li>\n	<li>To manage the day-to-day business of the ECB.</li>\n	<li>To exercise certain powers delegated to it by the governing council. Mostly regulatory.The current Executive Board members are: -Mario Draghi – President of the ECB\nVitor Constancio – Vice-President of the ECB\nJorg Asmussen\nBenoit Coeure\nYves Mersch\nPeter Praet</li>\n</ol>\nOn most weekdays at least one Executive Board member delivers a speech with a subsequent press release about Eurozone ECB policy and the best of all they add their snippet of personal opinion’s and information on any ECB matter. It is these snippets that just drive the markets sometimes into a frenzy, for the simple fact the snippets often do not adhere to policy. From my perspective it just fuels my fundamental view that these people act like numpties / idiots and I question their validity to be in the roles that they have.\n\nLet me be specific on just one recent example. There were other topics but this was my favourite.\n\n<b>NEGATIVE INTEREST RATES:</b>\n\nBenoit Coeure spoke on European Economic integration on the 23<sup>rd</sup> November. Shortly after he stated that “Negative interest rates” were on the table “Do NOT” rule them out.\n\nThis was followed by Draghi, announcing, “NO…nothing has changed...it’s (Negative Interest Rates) not part of our policy nor has it been discussed in any detail”\n\nYves Mersch spoke on 26<sup>th</sup> November and basically said don’t rule out anything and discussions have taken place on all monetary options including negative interest rates.\n\nJorg Asmussen, speaking on the 27<sup>th</sup> and 28<sup>th</sup> of November talked about dealing in reality in the Eurozone…God that must have been fascinating...what type of bloody reality are these people in? Negative Interest rates came up again.\n\nMy point is; do these people sit in the same meetings, and more importantly, do they listen? Do the have meeting minutes and action points by member distributed at the end of the meeting or the day after?\n\nMy thoughts on this ECB Executive Board are as follows.\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\" align=\"center\"><i>Basically, I see zero unity, zero harmony, no agreed approach to the press it is a free for all say what you like deal. It lacks a business-style approach and encourages speculation, which fits perfectly into the “Can kicking down the road scenario”.</i></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><i>Executive Board members must be go out talk to the press tell them what they want to hear.</i></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><i> The next guy out will deny it</i></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><i> Then the next guy will put it on the table again.</i></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><i> Then we hand the baton to the next guy to deny. </i></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><i>This way we never make a decision and “kick the can down the longest road in history for as long as we eat and breathe”.</i></p>\n&nbsp;\n\nThat is my belief regarding the policy of the ECB Executive Board, it’s amateurish and pathetic. It is a pantomime and I struggle to take these people seriously. I firmly believe that Draghi is a puppet of Merkel and basically nothing is done without the say so confirmation from Berlin. These guys might as well book a theatre in the London’s West End and do a “Week in the life of…” farce. It would be a sell out.\n\nIt makes it very simple for us as traders on what to and what not to do, although the volatility that these numpties create is incredible at times and we just have trade around the volatility. As traders we should only listen to and act upon Draghi’s comments from the ECB as he speaks with a German accent. He is a puppet of Berlin and the other board members are loose cannons. Draghi does not control them, or does not want to control them. In a Bruce Willis (or the like) movie they would be referred to as “Rogue Agents”.\n\nAt the same time comments of a political nature inside the Eurozone I would only pay attention to Merkel.  As for the rest (Country Head Leaders, Finance and Foreign Ministers) are mere vegetables on the plate…they are simply not the main course.\n\nI do believe that very shortly, probably early 2014 the ECB has to act to weaken the single currency. How they do it, is up for grabs but take your lead from Draghi ignore the other Executive Board members it is a title only position that carries zero weight. In 2014 I still believe that the EUR/USD will be trading sub 1.2000.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">3. MY CURRENT LIVE TRADES:</span></b>\n\nI currently have no live trades at the moment.\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b>\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">4. TRADES THAT ARE ON MY RADAR:</span></b>\n\nI am continuing to look at the exotic crosses once again, as well as my old favourites: -\n<p align=\"center\">EUR/CAD\nGBP/CAD\nEUR/AUD\nGBP/AUD\nGBP/NZD\nEUR/NZD</p>\n<p align=\"center\">Plus</p>\n<p align=\"center\">AUD/USD\nNZD/USD\nUSD/CAD</p>\n<p align=\"center\">Tempting me as well</p>\n<p align=\"center\">USD/CAD\nGBP/USD</p>\n&nbsp;\n\nThe exotic pairs are now pulling back and some are consolidating after huge momentum upside moves. So I will look at these next week to enter long after pullbacks. I still see that the continuation moves still have some way to go and there are thousands of upside pips still available.\n\nI am not 100% certain of my targeted entries yet, but below you will see an indication of my thoughts. If I enter I will tweet my entry, stop and limit.\n\nPlease take care this time of the year. If the market moves against you do not let any of the trades that you are in, in particular these exotic cross-rates listed below get away from you. Cut your losses.\n\nCURRENCY PAIR               ENTRY                       TARGET\n\nEUR/CAD                              1.4250                       1.5500\n\nGBP/CAD                              1.7100                       1.8000\n\nEUR/AUD                              1.4770                       1.5500\n\nGBP/AUD                              1.7700                       2.0180\n\nGBP/NZD                              1.9940                       2.2450\n\nEUR/NZD                              1.6600                       1.7035\n\n(All of the above trades are long trades)\n\nAll of the above pairs are very volatile with huge daily ATR’s. I would recommend that if you decide to take trades with these pairs to take smaller positions with very wide stop losses to accommodate the increased levels of volatility.\n\nAUD/USD (Short)                 0.9210                       0.8800\n\nNZD/USD (Short)                 0.8250                       0.7750\n\nUSD/CAD (Long)                 1.0511                       1.0850\n\n&nbsp;\n\nUSD/CHF (Long)                 0.8950                       0.9250\n\nGBP/USD (Long)                 1.6220                       1.6500\n\nI must stress and the point that I want to make here is that I am waiting for the trades to come to me. Not all may activate but the entry level and the risk associated with these trades is very important.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">5. LOOKING FORWARD…THE KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS:</span></b>\n\n<b>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3590.</b> Not too much of a change in position from last week. I feel that if this pair were to test and break resistance around 1.3630 then 1.3700 would be seen very quickly thereafter.  We closed virtually at 1.3580, which is an important level vis-à-vis the bull/bear line. Having said that I feel that the bears will assume control should we break support at 1.3550, then we head to 1.3450 next.\n\n<b>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.6359. </b>This pair is on fire and very, very bullish. Look at the cross-rates GBP/CAD, GBP/AUD, GBP/JPY and GBP/NZD. Should we break through resistance at 1.6380, I think we will head to 1.6500 and then 1.6700 soon after. Support lies at 1.6300.\n\n<b>AUD/USD: Closing Price 0.9107</b>. Basically a further fall of 50 pips from last Friday’s close. Personally, I want to see a pull back on Sunday’s open to 0.9210 before resuming the downtrend, however, I am not so certain that we will get it. Support at 0.9060 is a key line to determine the fate of this pair. Should it break lower through the next level at 0.9000, personally I think that it will be just a matter of weeks before we are at 0.8500, which I believe is the RBA objective.\n\n<b>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8112</b>.  Like the Aussie, about a further 50 pip fall in the week’s closing position compared to the previous weekly close.  This pair is in a “Head and Shoulders” pattern with a measured move to about 0.7700. It may take weeks to play out, and, given this pair’s recent stubbornness at falling, it probably will take several weeks to play out. A break of the range 0.8100 to 0.8250 is required to give us a momentum push. At the moment I am not short this pair, but I want to be. My target entry would be on a pull back to 0.8250 if possible…just not sure that I am going to get it.\n\n<b>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.0606.  </b>We have broken out above 1.0600. We need to see this as a confirmed move next Sunday / Monday. If this move can be confirmed, it sets up a major change in market sentiment. This pair is one of my market lead indicators. The best trade long would preferably be around 1.0510 would be at the lower support level of the range, but I doubt that this level will be seen, 1.0560 offers a little support. On the other side of the trade 1.0675 is the next resistance level assuming that we stay above 1.0600.\n\n<b>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.9059</b>.  We closed this week around the same levels as last week. If you think that the EUR/USD is going lower over the coming sessions, this is not a bad area to go long with good support at 0.9050 and then below at 0.8990. Resistance lies ahead at 0.9100 then 0.9150. If you think that the EUR/USD is moving higher wait and see if this pair can fall below 0.8900 and pick it up towards 0.8800.\n\n<b>USD/JPY: Closing Price 102.40. </b> Over 100+ pips higher week on week and I got the whole move in this pair completely wrong from a few weeks ago. I was expecting 95.00 before 105.00. It looks like for the time being the grind higher will remain in full swing. The next resistance level after 102.60 is probably 103.00 then 103.50.  Support is good at 101.60 then 101.00.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">6. MAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:</span></b>\n\nSUNDAY: AUD – Building Approvals\n\nMONDAY: GBP – Manufacturing PMi\nMONDAY: USD – Bernanke Speaks and ISM Manufacturing PMI.\nMONDAY: AUD – Retail Sales, Interest Rate and RBA Statement.\n\nTUESDAY: GBP – Construction PMI.\nTUESDAY: AUD – GDP.\n\nWEDNESDAY: GBP – Services PMi.\nWEDNESDAY: USD – ADP Non-Farm Employment Change &amp; Trade Balance.\nWEDNESDAY: CAD – Trade Balance, BOC Rate Statement and Interest Rates.\nWEDNESDAY: AUD – Trade balance.\n\nTHURSDAY: GBP – Asset Purchase Facility &amp; Interest Rates.\nTHURSDAY: EUR – Interest Rates &amp; ECB Press Conference.\nTHURSDAY: CAD – Building Permits.\nTHURSDAY: USD – GDP &amp; Weekly Unemployment Claims.\nTHURSDAY: CAD – Ivey PMi.\n\nFRIDAY: CAD – Employment statistics &amp; Unemployment Rate.\nFRIDAY: USD – Non-Farm Payrolls &amp; Unemployment Rate.\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b>\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">7. THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</span></b>\n\nAs I mentioned earlier, I am launching a new “Premium Service” for traders who may want to go to the next level of support. The following section highlights what will be in the “Premium Service” and what changes will take place with the Weekly Fx Drive-Thru.\n<p align=\"center\"><b>THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU PREMIUM SERVICE  2014 </b>\n\nAs I mentioned in last weekend’s blog, next year I am looking to introduce a “Premium Service” for those who want it. The “Drive-Thru” in its current format will remain as is; with one exception the  “Radar Trades” will now only be available via the Premium Service. In addition, “Trade Ideas and Set-ups” that are tweeted will now only be available to Premium Service subscribers inside the secure section of the Weekly Fx Drive-Thru. I will also be introducing “Flash Trades” these will be up to the minute as it happen trades.\n\nThe new Premium Service will not just be solely based on Radar Trades. Over the past several months, feedback from subscribers to the “Drive-Thru”, or from readers of the blog via Google+, LinkedIn or Twitter have been raising many questions about Forex Trading in general, such as: -<b> </b>\n\n</p><p align=\"center\"><b>Placing Stops</b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Strategies on entry and exit</b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Working with a Trade Plan</b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>What is a Trade Plan?</b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Risk Assessment</b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>When to fade trades</b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>How to cost average effectively</b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>How to use Trade Zones effectively - Buy Zones and Sell zones</b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Working with Fibonacci levels</b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>How to find a good broker to partner with</b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Chart analysis</b></p>\nThe list is quite extensive, however, it refers to all the recent questions that I have answered.\n\nTo have a learning centre available and to look at the trades that are on my radar at the same time seemed to be a very good fit as a trading philosophy…hence the Premium Service.\n\nI am also looking to do training and information based “Webinars” to Premium Service subscription members, if I have sufficient participants.\n\nWhilst upon first look, it may appear that the Premium Service is directed solely a new traders, or those with intermediate skill levels. Please note this is not my intention. Training can be lonely, and sometimes it is good to feel that you are part of a team. With this in mind, I am thinking that a “Chat Room” style area would be of benefit to all traders to share ideas and trade set-ups. Plus, new trader or experienced trader it is always good to have library of information available close at hand.\n\nThe Weekly Fx-Drive-Thru will remain, and will continue to be posted weekly on Saturday’s although it will be a shorter version.\n\nThe Midweek Fx Fix will cease immediately and in 2014 the Premium Service will be available to those who want to take advantage. The training and background support material will be added on a regular basis to grow into a library of effective Fx trading tools\n\nWhat are the costs?\n\nMy initial thoughts are as follows: -\n\nThere will be 40 weekly blogs / issues per year (I will not write in the Summer and over Christmas periods), with an unlimited amount of follow ups during the week to review and act upon “Radar Trades” and issues emanating from previous blogs. In addition trade ideas for trades already in play would also be part of the service, as I will be trading my own trade recommendations.\n\nI do not want to become a finance administrator on a daily basis so I want to keep the subscription options as few as possible.\n<p align=\"center\"><b>ANNUAL (40 WEEK) SUBSCRIPTION: $750.00 (this equates to $18.75 per week) </b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>20 WEEKS SUBSCRIPTION: $450.00 (this equates to $22.50 per week) </b><b> </b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>10 WEEKS SUBSCRIPTION: $250.00 (this equates to $25.00 per week) </b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>(ALL FEES ARE IN USD)</b></p>\nI would like to get your feedback to this proposal.\n\nIf you have the time please respond to me at <a href=\"mailto:scott@pickering.bz\">scott@pickering.bz</a> with your thoughts on the “Premium Service” and whether you think that this is something you would sign up for and take advantage of.\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b>\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">8. FINAL THOUGHTS:</span></b>\n\nWe have a very busy week ahead for major news items that will without doubt move the markets. Personally, I think that this will be my final week of trading 2013, so my positions, if any, will be small.\n\nWe are heading into ‘silly season” on thin trading volumes. Smaller and thinner trading volumes create wilder moves sometimes based on nothing that can cost you money so be careful.\n\nAs always, trade smaller with wider stops to establish your position, only then do you add in, but it should be in line with your trading plan. Do not over-stretch yourself and let the trades come to you. Price your entries and establish your risk prior to taking a trade. This is a sound practice and it works.\n\nGood luck and take care.\n\nScott Pickering\nThe Pip Accumulator\nSaturday November 30th 2013\n\nFOLLOW ME AT:\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\nGoogle+/scottpickering\n\n&nbsp;','ECB EXECUTIVE BOARD MEMBERS TO STAR IN LONDON WEST END CHRISTMAS PANTOMIME','','publish','open','closed','','ecb-executive-board-members-star-london-west-end-christmas-pantomine','','','2013-11-30 11:24:52','2013-11-30 16:24:52','',0,'http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/?p=2103',0,'post','',0),(2093,1,'2013-11-23 07:25:59','2013-11-23 12:25:59','23.11.2013\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">1. INTRODUCTION:</span></b>\n\nI must admit for a lot of the past week I have not been participating in the moves in the currency market. In fact, I think I tweeted on either Monday or Tuesday that it was “Boring, boring, boring”. At that point I thought enough was enough and I did other things. From last weeks blog, a whole list of my “Radar Trades” were not picked up by my broker for some reason still not known to me and frankly the broker involved has just done a modern day “Pontius Pilate” on the whole event.\n\nHad these trades triggered, and I hope that some of you guys got into the trades,  the profits would have yielded  excellent results.\n<p style=\"padding-left: 300px;\"><strong>NZD/USD short: entry 0.8350: Closing Price: 0.8188  Profit: 162 pips</strong>\n<strong>AUD/USD short: entry 0.9380: Closing Price: 0.9166  Profit: 214 pips        </strong>\n<strong>USD/CAD long: entry 1.0420: Closing Price: 1.0512    Profit: 92 pips</strong>\n<strong>GBP/AUD long: entry 1.7150: Closing Price: 1.7681    Profit: 531 pips</strong>\n<strong>GBP/CAD long: entry 1.6800: Closing Price: 1.7055    Profit: 255 pips</strong></p>\nThe total profit on just one mini lot per trade could have been over $1,200.00 If a standard lot per trade was purchased the profit could have been over $12,000.00 (The profits would have been even greater had the trades closed yesterday morning (Friday) prior to the consolidations and pullbacks).\n\nSo as a result you can imagine I am a bit pissed off. I will not chase the market it is not in my trading plan / style and watching these pairs was painful, in particular, the “exotics”, as they exploded to the upside.\n\nThe volatility levels picked up Wednesday onwards with the FED minutes and Bernanke’s love fest with Janet Yellen was confirmed by his comments during the week.\n\nEurozone news that France is now one report away from officially being back in recession was expected, although in typical French style denied. Various additional sound-bytes came through from the Eurozone regarding “Negative Deposit rates”. However, the best for me was one of my favourite limelight seekers in the Eurozone, Austrian Central Bank Governor, Ewald Nowotny with his latest classic stating that inflation is anchored, but growth is basically weak...it’s deflation NOT inflation and deflation is like a cancer that is what the Eurozone is suffering from. Just look at Japan and all the measures taken by Abe to try once and for all to get rid. If Merkel and the ECB do not get a grip of matters and represent the whole single currency area the new Japan is on the way to Europe.\n\nFinally, there is one very important notice for all my readers to be aware of. During the week I will also deliver introductory information on a new “Premium Service” that I am looking to introduce in 2014. This is something that I have always wanted to do and now with almost 100 blogs under my belt I think that the timing is right. I will provide some data during the week to subscribers directly via email.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">2. THE VIEW FROM MY TRADING DESK: </span></b>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">THE COMMODITY CURRENCY DIVERGENCE CONTINUES</span></b></p>\nIn my blog of November 9<sup>th</sup> I wrote about EUR/USD short opportunities and highlighted issues with the commodity currencies as lead indicators, plus gold, copper and oil (The Holy Trinity). The “Trinity” are all falling, the commodity currencies that usually follow the S&amp;P index are falling at the same time that the S&amp;P is at new highs.\n\nIs there something wrong with this overview picture?\n\nYou bet your ass there is something wrong…there is something big looming on the horizon.\n\nI blogged last week stating that I believed all the smart money was leaving or had already left the equities markets. I am so certain of those comments last week. What makes me so certain?\n\nBeing in $$$ most of the week in the afternoons, in particular, I took to watching CNBC, there I admit it, I watched “Bull market TV”. You are not allowed on as a guest unless you are a strong overall buyer. That TV station has so many “Buy the Dips” guys its frightening what they will do and how they will react if / when the markets turn lower.\n\nThe factor that makes me so certain that the smart money is out and we are heading lower is a report that “Ma and Pa” investors are ready to join the equities Bull Run now!! Jesus, Mary and Joseph are they serious?\n\nThat\'s it…. as we know. Independent retail buys at the highs and sells at the lows. They lose money at both ends of the range.\n\nLook at the pip moves lower in my lead indicator currencies (I will ignore the cross-rates even though their moves are stronger!): -\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>AUD/USD lower by: - over 200 pips.</em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>(I admit that comments by RBA Stevens stating that the RBA may directly intervene in the currency markets to weaken the AUD have helped)</em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>NZD/USD lower by: - about 150 pips.</em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>(Even though RBNZ Wheeler has openly stated that they may have to increase interest rates to stem the housing bubble move amongst other economic data)</em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>USD/CAD higher by: - about 55 pips.</em></p>\nLook at GOLD. It is struggling to move back above $1250.00 and stay there. The next move is lower towards $1180.00. If that level does not hold and sellers really enter the market, it looks like sub $800.00 could be the resting place and probably a great place to maybe think of getting long if it should fall this far. I read on Thursday last week that Goldman Sachs is expecting Gold to fall throughout 2014.\n\nGold is / was an inflation hedge. Where is the inflation? Japan, USA and Europe are all deflation zones. The outlook for Gold is bad, from an Fx perspective this will add fuel to the USD bulls.\n\nWTi - falling below $95.00, and looks to be struggling to move back above $95.00. This will add to USD strength.\n\nCopper is in a downward spiral. Should it ever threaten a fall below $3.00, “The wheels will be off the bus” and this will produce a massive, massive lower move in equities and USD strength of unbelievable magnitude.\n\nThe commodity currencies are all influenced by Gold, Oil and Copper and this will only add power to the moves lower.\n\nFinally, in addition should the USD gather major strength the factors below all increase the power and supply of the USD move, which will add even greater power to the commodity currencies moves as well.\n<p align=\"center\"><i>USA - Budget Limits.</i></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><i>USA - Sequestration agreement.</i></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><i>USA - The Affordable Healthcare Act (Obama care).</i></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><i>USA – Tapering / timing.</i></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><i>USA – Currency and Commodity divergences.</i></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><i>Eurozone – Deflation policies / EUR exchange rates</i></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><i>China - Banking issues / debt.</i></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><i>Japan - Abenomics, QE, JPY targets.</i></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><i>Emerging Markets – Effects of U.S. Monetary Policy.</i></p>\n&nbsp;\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">3. MY CURRENT LIVE TRADES:</span></b>\n\nI currently have three live trades.\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>1. AUD/USD\n</b><b>Short\n</b><b>Entry / Cost Average: 0.9166\n</b><b>Position Size: 20%\n</b><b>Closing Price: 0.9166\n</b><b>Stop: 0.9220\n</b><b>Limit: 0.8500\n</b><b>Present Position: - 8 pips</b><b> </b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>2. USD/CHF\n</b><b>Long\n</b><b>Entry / Cost Average: 0.9101\n</b><b>Position Size: 40%\n</b><b>Closing Price: 0.9063\n</b><b>Stop: 0.9042\n</b><b>Limit: 0.9370\n</b><b>Present Position - 37 pips</b><b> </b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>3. NZD/USD\n</b><b>Short\n</b><b>Entry / Cost Average: 0.8157\n</b><b>Position Size: 20%\n</b><b>Closing Price: 0.8188\n</b><b>Stop: 0.8210\n</b><b>Limit: 0.7900\n</b><b>Present Position - 41 pips</b></p>\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">4. TRADES THAT ARE ON MY RADAR:</span></b>\n\nI am looking at the exotic crosses once again: -\n<p align=\"center\"><strong>EUR/CAD</strong>\n<strong>GBP/CAD</strong>\n<strong>EUR/AUD</strong>\n<strong>GBP/AUD</strong>\n<strong>GBP/NZD</strong>\n<strong>EUR/NZD</strong></p>\nThese pairs are now consolidating after big moves to the upside, so I will look at these next week to enter long after quite large pullbacks. I still see that the continuation moves have some way to go and there are thousands of upside pips still available. I am not 100% confirmed on entry levels yet, but I list below my initial thoughts that I am 90% certain on. Some of my entries are ambitious, but in my mind offer a great risk / return value.\n\n&nbsp;\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">CURRENCY PAIR </span>              <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">ENTRY</span>                       <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">TARGET</span></strong></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong> EUR/CAD                              1.4165                       1.5500</strong>\n<strong>GBP/CAD                              1.6960                       1.8000</strong>\n<strong>EUR/AUD                              1.4600                       1.5500</strong>\n<strong>GBP/AUD                              1.7380                       2.0180</strong>\n<strong>GBP/NZD                              1.9600                       2.2450</strong>\n<strong>EUR/NZD                              1.6440                       1.7035</strong></p>\nAll of these pairs are very volatile with huge daily ATR’s. I would recommend that if you decide to take trades with these pairs to take smaller positions with very wide stop losses to accommodate the increased levels of volatility.\n\nMy point to get across here is that I am waiting for the trades to come to me. Not all may activate but the entry level and the risk associated with these trades is very important.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">5. LOOKING FORWARD…THE KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS:</span></b>\n\n<b>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3557.</b>   This pair has closed just below critical line in the sand resistance at 1.3580. Should it break through this level, I think we can say hello to 1.3700. The Eurozone periphery would go mental should this currency pair move higher. Time will tell, and, who knows what will happen. I think we have to break lower through 1.3450 to have the bears in control again.\n\n<b>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.6223. </b>GBP cross rates have been having a party of their own this past 7 days. With their help the GBP/USD have moved over 100 pips higher in the past week. The performances / moves higher in the GBP/JPY, GBP/CAD, GBP/AUD and GBP/ NZD should not go unnoticed. There should be some consolidation early next week, but it is cable that I am writing about and it does take on a life of its own so do not be surprised to see 1.6500 soon if the present momentum fires up again. I do not see the bears back in the driving seat unless there is a break lower through 1.6050.\n\n<b>AUD/USD: Closing Price 0.9166</b>. A 200 pip move lower in the week. It looks a bit oversold and yesterday’s lack of movement in the North American session should have helped work out some of the oversold measurements. The RBA issued a warning that it would directly intervene in the currency market to weaken the AUD if it deemed that action necessary…watch this space. Upside resistance lies at 0.9310 and support is really at 0.9040 after we go lower through 0.9150.\n\n<b>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8188</b>.  We have just witnessed about a 150 pip drop in this pair over the past 7 days.  It pulled back from the brink yesterday (Friday) after reaching 0.8125 and I will be looking to add to my existing short Sunday night / Monday morning. Support is big at 0.8100 and resistance good at 0.8250.\n\n<b>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.0512.  </b>Finally, it has broken out. If this pair gets through 1.0620 we are off…up, up and away much higher to where the air is thin. Potentially a 1.1000 to 1.1200 move could be in the making. Support is now good at 1.0511 and below that 1.0450. I will be looking to pick up at these lower levels if possible.\n\n<b>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.9063</b>. I am currently long this pair and at the moment not too concerned with my small loss position, but should the EUR/USD break out to the long side, I will probably close this trade and take my loss. I see the bulls back in control once we scale through 0.9150. Support is good at 0.9050.\n\n<b>USD/JPY: Closing Price 101.24. </b> We are breaking higher, finally in the USD/JPY. I do not believe this move - just as I get out of my long off it goes!! I still find it a little difficult to read this pair. Support is good at 100.60. On the long side resistance looks to be minor until we hit 102.00.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">6. MAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:</span></b>\n\nSUNDAY: N/A\n\nMONDAY: N/A\n\nTUESDAY: GBP – Inflation Report Hearings.\nTUESDAY: USD – Consumer Confidence.\nTUESDAY: NZD – Trade Balance\n\nWEDNESDAY: N/A\n\nTHURSDAY: N/A\n\nFRIDAY: CAD – GDP m/m.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">7. FINAL THOUGHTS:</span></b>\n\nA bit of a thin week for me trading around news events this week. I also think that volumes will start falling off as we head towards December. Without doubt after the Non-Farm payrolls data, it may be the end of 2013 trading for me, as I hate thin trading conditions.\n\nSmaller and thinner trading volumes create wilder moves based on nothing that can cost you money so be careful.\n\nAs always, trade smaller with wider stops to establish your position, only then do you add in, but it should be in line with your trading plan. Do not over-stretch yourself and let the trades come to you. Price your entries and establish your risk prior to taking a trade. This is a sound practice and it works\n\nThis week I will release initial information regarding the “Premium” service that I am looking to introduce in 2014.\n\nGood luck and take care.\n\nScott Pickering\nThe Pip Accumulator\nSaturday November 23rd 2013\n\nFOLLOW ME AT:\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\nGoogle+/scottpickering\n\n&nbsp;','THE COMMODITY CURRENCY DIVERGENCE CONTINUES','','publish','open','closed','','commodity-currency-divergence-continues','','','2013-11-23 07:25:59','2013-11-23 12:25:59','',0,'http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/?p=2093',0,'post','',0),(2083,1,'2013-11-13 12:39:54','2013-11-13 17:39:54','&nbsp;\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">1. INTRODUCTION:</span></b>\n\nI apologize in advance; this is a very short update as I am in between meetings most of the day.\n\nAdditionally, because I am away from my desk for a lot of the time I have closed several trades.\n\nSince my blog last weekend, the markets have not reacted the way that was anticipating. The EUR/USD has basically re-traced a great deal of its downside move following the ECB rate cut last week. Looking at the charts, a re-test of trend line at 1.3470 seems to be what is happening. As a consequence, I exited a lot of my trades to review the situation\n\nThis morning (Wednesday) the EURUSD rose to 1.3454 or so before falling away on chatter about the use of negative interest rates in the Eurozone plus possibly a copy of the Asset Purchase Facility (QE UK style) in the Eurozone. On this breaking sound-byte the pair fell to 1.3390. I am still not convinced that the re-test has been done and there may be stab at 1.3470 before we resume the downtrend.\n\nI am however, cautious with my trading and I want to see confirmation that USD strength is going to run through the market.\n\nMany divergence signs are there: -\n<p align=\"center\"><i>AUD/USD – trading near lows whilst stock markets are posting new highs.</i></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><i>NZD/USD – although stubborn it is about 50 pips from a huge breakdown level.</i></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><i>GOLD – at the precipice, just holding above key trend line support. A break below $1250 should see the next support around $1180.</i></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><i>COPPER – falling, today it was over 2% lower.</i></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><i>WTi CRUDE – now below $95.</i><i> </i></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><i>I want to see equities roll over and additionally the USD/JPY fall back below 99.00 as well.</i></p>\nAll of the above will give me confidence to trade more comprehensively.\n\nBetween now and the next blog “The Weekly Fx Drive-Thru” at the weekend hopefully things will have changed.\n\nI am not 100% comfortable with what I am seeing right now with the market however, I will tweet any developments.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">2. EXISTING LIVE TRADES:</span></b>\n\nI currently have just one live trade. It is a small lot trade to establish a longer-term position style trade. I am not risking much given my comments at the start of the blog.\n\n<b> </b>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>AUD/USD\n</b><b>Short\n</b><b>Position Size: 20%\n</b><b>Entry/Cost Average: 0.9288\n</b><b>Stop Loss: 0.9360\n</b><b>Limit/ Target: 0.9180</b><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b></p>\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">3. POTENTIAL TRADES ON MY RADAR:</span></b>\n\nI cancelled all my radar trades from last weekend that did not activate because my entry prices were too far away from the market.\n\nI have yet to add limit or stop orders back to my broker account until I re-formulate my trading plan. As I do I will tweet them.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">4. FINAL THOUGHTS:</span></b>\n\nI am in between trade ideas at the moment. My master plan from last weekend’s blog is still very much in play but I think I want to see a little confirmation prior to entering multiple trades. So I will wait and see, hopefully by this weekend matters will be clearer.\n\nGood luck and take care.\n\nScott Pickering\nThe Pip Accumulator\nWednesday November 13th 2013\n\nFOLLOW ME AT:\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\nGoogle+/scottpickering\n\n&nbsp;','THE MIDWEEK FX FIX #8 (13.11.2013)','','publish','open','closed','','midweek-fx-fix-8-13-11-2013','','','2013-11-13 12:39:54','2013-11-13 17:39:54','',0,'http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/?p=2083',0,'post','',0),(2086,1,'2013-11-16 08:24:47','2013-11-16 13:24:47','16.11.2013\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">1. INTRODUCTION:</span></b>\n\nWell, I think we now may have our market direction but it’s not the one I was thinking we were going to see. I still believe that there is enough divergence around to cause some concerns but the old quotes of “Never Fight The FED” are ringing in my ears at the moment. Having written that, I still believe that a top in the markets is close-by. New highs are on thin volumes and less stocks are playing in the run ups that we are witnessing. I still believe the markets are “toppy”.\n\nEnough of that, moving on the markets got what they wanted last week when Janet Yellen (FED chairperson in waiting) went “To the Hill” strutted her stuff and basically said no change in policies.\n<p align=\"center\"><b><i>“It’s free money come and get it”</i></b></p>\nTherefore, the markets are once again resuming the relentless climb higher making all-time highs, day after day. In my opinion, this is a bubble and eventually it will burst, and when it does, it will be swift and unforgiving. Hence my comments last week about “The smart money is probably already out of equities”. For investors, there is nowhere else to invest to obtain a return on your investment, however, we are now witnessing extremes, and, the equity markets will roll-over, it is just a question of time. Trading volumes are lower than usual and I think this will be the pattern through to the end of 2013 as the fear of a pullback is there, it’s just not talked about that much openly.\n<p align=\"center\">At the back of mind I still have my list: -</p>\n<p align=\"center\"><i>USA - Budget Limits.</i></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><i>USA - Sequestration agreement.</i></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><i>USA - The Affordable Healthcare Act (Obama care).</i></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><i>USA – Tapering / timing.</i></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><i>USA – Currency and Commodity divergences.</i></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><i>Eurozone – Deflation policies / EUR exchange rates</i></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><i>China - Banking issues / debt.</i></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><i>Japan - Abenomics, QE, JPY targets.</i></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><i>Emerging Markets – Effects of U.S. Monetary Policy.</i></p>\nI am now 75% certain that the markets will just brush aside my list above for the time being. In 2014, however, these should be at the forefront of a trader’s thinking. Individually, the markets in the past have absorbed one item of bad news, taken it onboard, then spat it out and carried on regardless. If two or three of these items from my list are “hanging” at the same time I think that the reaction would be somewhat different.\n\nTime will tell…watch this space.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">2. THE VIEW FROM MY TRADING DESK:</span></b>\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">ARE WE HEADING FOR ANOTHER EUROZONE CRISIS?</span></b></p>\nAs I have stated on many occasions I am a fundamental trader first, then technical. In the back of my mind after listening, watching and reading all things Eurozone over the past week or so and then looking forward, I have the following issues bouncing around inside my head.\n\nI bet Mario Draghi pouring out his cornflakes today (Saturday) is probably saying to himself…\n<p style=\"padding-left: 90px; text-align: center;\" align=\"center\"><strong>“<i>Mama Mia…. I cut the fecking rates; I gave into pressure from those Mediterranean moaning minnies; and, the bloody EUR/USD is still hovering around 1.3500. WTF”</i></strong></p>\nIn the 10 days since the last ECB press conference what has happened…in the Eurozone world?\n\nI have read plenty of chatter about the possibility of negative rates being introduced to force the banking sector to lend, to act, and, to try to help provide stimulus to failing economies.  There have been a few pieces about the “Son of” LTRO (Long Term Refinancing Option) being introduced. Both of these topics would help reduce the strength of the single currency. The problem I see is that the FED is so powerful and the U.S. political situation is so uncertain the USD is treated as a weaker currency with most currencies. Fed policy is trumping all others at the moment.\n\nThe ECB without doubt has the tools and the power to weaken the EUR/USD currency pair in particular. However, given that Germany pulls the strings, I am wondering would there be the political weight behind such a move. The push for the recent interest rate reduction came primarily from the periphery countries coping with deflation and record unemployment as well as little to no chance of growth in the future, probably until 2015 at the earliest, and that is being generous to some countries\n\nAt the moment the political attentions are drawn back towards the bank stress tests and banking union. The bottom line with this present debate is that there is little point doing stress tests on the banks again, I think that this is #3 or #4, unless the tests are rigorous and actually mean something. Recent stress tests were carried out in 2011 and many banks were passing despite the fact that soon after the results were published, some banks were under pressure. Most of the failing banks were Spanish and Greek banks, but in addition the ‘barely passed list’ included 16 banks across, Cyprus, Germany, Greece, Italy, Portugal, Slovenia and the remaining Spanish banks that weren’t at crisis point in the original 9 banks.\n\nRigorous banks tests are wanted but this time the Eurozone Finance Ministers are charged with agreeing a set of action items based upon the results. The periphery countries in particular, want the EU/ECB to backstop and support any weaker banks by providing capital support. Germany does not want to write open cheques. There lies the next problem for the numpties in the Eurozone to sort out.\n\nAfter this the on-going debate and meetings over the Fiscal and Banking unions will drag on and on without a resolution, or, by chance a resolution is achieved watch for the target implementation date. If not the date, check for a constitutional debate over the legality of such a move based upon political sovereignty. I am predicting another “can to be kicked down the road”.\n\nAll of this goes on with a backdrop of basically zero growth (GDP) in the Eurozone, increased unemployment lines, reduced social services and cutbacks in health and education and infrastructure expenditure placed on hold.\n\nIt is a powder keg ready to go off at anytime.\n\nAs with most matters Eurozone, Germany holds the key and with Merkel having recently been elected, one would have thought that she had the power and political mite to push through key Eurozone functionality issues. This is simply not the case any more, her coalition partners are no longer on the open chequebook policy, not that they really were before.\n\nI can visualize a Eurozone crisis on the horizon regarding how to handle the stress test results, coupled with The Banking Union debate and appointing the Bank “Tzar”. The required ratification by country-head leaders will turn into a momentous “Cheese and Wine” event… the corporate hospitality in Brussels will be frothing at the mouth at the thought of a two/three day late night food and drink extravaganza keeping the TV companies on tip-toes for hours.\n\nA crisis will be averted at the eleventh hour; a tacky agreement of sorts will take place pending a small focus group review later.\n\nAdded to this Brussels debate, the social issues and lack of coherent policy to improve living standards across the Eurozone will result in strikes, people marching in the streets etc.\n\nThe Greek Finance Minister has already come out and said “Enough is enough…no more Austerity…. it’s not going to happen”\n\nYes, I can see a Eurozone crisis /  implosion on possibly several additional fronts: -\n\n&nbsp;\n<p align=\"center\"><i>AUSTERITY</i></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><i>GDP\n</i></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><i>UNEMPLOYMENT\n</i></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><i>HOUSING\n</i></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><i>LOW CPi</i></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><i>DEFLATION</i></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><i>BAD DEBT</i></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><i>SOCIAL UNREST</i></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><i>SOCIAL SERVICES</i></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><i>HEALTH CUTBACKS</i></p>\n&nbsp;\n\nThis will have a massive effect on the single currency, it will then be seen as the weaker currency against the USD and it will fall. Eurozone policies will be all about growth and reducing unemployment. There will be negative Euro overnight deposit rates with the ECB. Local banks will have to lend to make a return on investment.\n\nBetween the politicians and the ECB, by the middle of 2015 I see the EUR/USD lower, to about 1.2500, maybe even lower to 1.1800.\n\nThis trade will also be helped by the fact the Fed should have tapering started in the 1<sup>st</sup> or 2<sup>nd</sup> Quarter of 2014.\n\nLow inflation worries across the globe will weaken Gold and it will fall lower creating more USD strength.\n\nCommodities in general should also pull back and this will also fuel USD strength.\n\nAll the factors that increase USD strength will add to the policies that are Eurozone introduced to weaken the EUR currency and so the push lower in the EUR/USD will gather weight and power.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">3. MY CURRENT LIVE TRADES:</span></b>\n\nI currently have three live trades at the moment.\n<p align=\"center\"><b>1. EUR/USD\n</b><b>Short\n</b><b>Entry / Cost Average: 1.3497\n</b><b>Position Size: 20%\n</b><b>Closing Price: 1.3494\n</b><b>Stop: 1.3530\n</b><b>Limit: 1.3000\n</b><b>Present Position +3 pips</b><b> </b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>2. USD/CHF\n</b><b>Long\n</b><b>Entry / Cost Average: 0.9136\n</b><b>Position Size: 20%\n</b><b>Closing Price: 0.9146\n</b><b>Stop: 0.9068\n</b><b>Limit: 0.9450\n</b><b>Present Position +10 pips</b><b> </b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>3. USD/JPY\n</b><b>Long\n</b><b>Entry / Cost Average: 100.40\n</b><b>Position Size: 20%\n</b><b>Closing Price: 100.17\n</b><b>Stop: 99.70\n</b><b>Limit: 105.50\n</b><b>Present Position - 23 pips</b></p>\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">4. TRADES THAT ARE ON MY RADAR:</span></b>\n\nWhen I posted the Midweek Fx Fix last Wednesday, I was in the middle of several papers regarding the market and I had decided to pull all the limit and stop orders in place with my brokers, pending my review of the current market place.\n\nI am looking to enter several trades but my entry levels are fairly precise from my perspective and I am waiting for these trades to come to me. At this stage I have no intention of reducing my entry levels, should this status change I will tweet my actions\n\nMy point to get across here is that I am waiting for the trades to come to me.\n<p align=\"center\"><b>1. NZD/USD\n</b><b>Short\n</b><b>Entry: 0.8350\n</b><b>Stop: 0.8420\n</b><b>Limit: 0.8200 (initial objective)</b></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><b> </b><b>2. AUD/USD\n</b><b>Short\n</b><b>Entry: 0.9380\n</b><b>Stop: 0.9420\n</b><b>Limit: 0.9000 (initial objective)</b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>3. USD/CAD\n</b><b>Long\n</b><b>Entry: 1.0420\n</b><b>Stop: 1.0380\n</b><b>Limit: 1.0580</b><b> </b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>4. GBP/AUD\n</b><b>Long\n</b><b>Entry: 1.7150\n</b><b>Stop: 1.7025\n</b><b>Limit: 1.7350 (initial objective)\n</b><b>With a break through this level I think we could be heading to almost 2.0000.</b><b> </b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>5. GBP/CAD\n</b><b>Long\n</b><b>Entry: 1.6800\n</b><b>Stop: 1.6750\n</b><b>Limit: 1.6950 (initial objective)\n</b><b>With a break above this level I think we will set for a move towards 1.8000.</b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b> </b></p>\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">5. LOOKING FORWARD…THE KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS:</span></b>\n\n<b>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3494.</b>  This pair moved about 350 pips lower last week on week, this week it’s about 130 of those pips given back. I am presently short this pair and thought Yesterday (Friday) that it was a great entry around 1.3500 and that it should be a great risk / reward trade. At the back of mind I am being haunted by a little voice saying 1.3600 to 1.3750 is where this pair is moving to next on the upside. Support is good at 1.3450 and then at 1.3410.\n\n<b>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.6114. </b>This pair had a 100 pip gain over the past week. We closed at great resistance at 1.6120. My gut feeling looking at recent price action is that this pair is itching to go higher. The pressure for a move to the upside is mounting. The next resistance level is 1.6200 then 1.6250 before 1.6330. Support is strong at 1.6000 and then 1.5920. If we see a confirmed foothold above 1.6120 I think this pair will see 1.6300 before it sees 1.6000 again.\n\n<b>AUD/USD: Closing Price 0.9365</b>. Not much movement in the week but I do think that this pair is at the crossroads. I am not that certain which way it is moving. Having said that, it should be a lot higher given the movement in equities. It isn’t - so it struggles. Copper is performing badly and this has an effect on the AUD currency. I am looking at the following range 0.9275 and 0.9380.\n\n<b>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8331</b>. I really do not know what to do with this pair. I have shorted several times over the past two weeks, made some shorter-term gains and then handed them back. The pair has moved up just over 100 pips in the week from last weeks close. Stubborn resistance lies at 0.8350, we have touched this level several times and it has been a great place to enter short of late. Support has been strong at 0.8200. I suggest that we play this range\n\n<b>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.0437.  </b>We have broken lower through 1.0480, which had been stubborn support of late. The big question now is; are we going to re-test 1.0400 or lower? This pair is on my radar and although I have my entry price listed in this blog, I may revise it over the next day or so. Resistance is massive at 1.0511.\n\n<b>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.9146.  </b>We closed on support at 0.9150. The next support levels are 0.9090 and the 0.9050. Resistance is good at 0.9190 and then 0.9250.\n\n<b>USD/JPY: Closing Price 100.17. </b> We are breaking higher, finally in the USD/JPY. For weeks we have been trapped in a daily chart triangle from 96.80 to 99.20. I am currently long this pair and I am of the opinion that we should keep edging higher until the S&amp;P starts to rollover. The next resistance level is 100.80 and support should now be strong at 99.80.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">6. MAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:</span></b>\n\nSUNDAY: AUD – Monetary Policy Minutes.\n\nMONDAY: EUR – German ZEW Economic Sentiment.\n\nTUESDAY: GBP – Inflation Report Hearings &amp; MPC Votes.\nTUESDAY: USD – Core Retails Sales, FOMC Meeting Minutes\n\nWEDNESDAY: GBP – Unemployment Data.\nWEDNESDAY: GBP – BOE Carney speaks and BOE Inflation Report\n\nTHURSDAY: EUR – French and German Manufacturing PMi.\n\nFRIDAY: CAD – Core CPi and Retail Sales.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">7. FINAL THOUGHTS:</span></b>\n\nNot much by way of news that interests me this week. This does not mean that I do not foresee any market volatility. The fact that there are only a few items that catch my attention usually means that when I least expect it a bolt out of the blue will happen, and, probably from an unusual origin.\n\nAs always, trade smaller with wider stops to establish your position, only then do you add in, but it should be in line with your trading plan. Do not over-stretch yourself and let the trades come to you. Price your entries and establish your risk prior to taking a trade. This is a sound practice and it works.\n\nI apologise, but there will be no “Midweek Fx Fix” this week as I will be away from my desk on Wednesday.\n\nGood luck and take care.\n\nScott Pickering\nThe Pip Accumulator\nSaturday November 16th 2013\n\nFOLLOW ME AT:\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\nGoogle+/scottpickering\n\n&nbsp;','ARE WE HEADING FOR ANOTHER EUROZONE CRISIS?','','publish','open','closed','','heading-another-eurozone-crisis','','','2013-11-16 08:24:47','2013-11-16 13:24:47','',0,'http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/?p=2086',0,'post','',0),(2068,1,'2013-11-06 09:36:30','2013-11-06 14:36:30','&nbsp;\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">1. INTRODUCTION:</span></b>\n\nNothing much happening at the moment in the Fx market. All eyes are now pinned on tomorrows ECB interest rate decision and Draghi’s Press conference that follows 45 minutes later.\n\nOver the past few days the markets desire for the ECB to take action against persistent low inflation appears to be getting louder and louder for an interest rate cut or other stimulus to be introduced. Personally, I just do not see anything being done so quickly by the ECB. These calls for action emanated only very recently, primarily from the banking sector in the periphery countries, fuelled by market contributors.\n\nRecent Eurozone data has disappointed such as Consumer Prices, which only rose 0.7% in the Eurozone versus the target of 2.0%. Although, PMi data and other regular economic data, except unemployment which is still at record highs and is projected to stay way too high for 2014, has been improving and there has been two quarters of continued growth. The issue is that the 17 member countries of the single currency are geographically split on recovery progress and overall the recovery itself lacks strength and appears very vulnerable to setbacks.\n\nVery low inflation causes issues and the ECB is being forced to act, but will they? Remember, Germany holds the puppet strings! Inflation in the Eurozone is too low; yet thinking outside of the box to remove the over-hanging fear of dealing with stagnation and deflation is a giant obstacle for Germany. They simply will not alter course unless it is a life or death situation. The Eurozone is managed on Germany’s terms and conditions not any other countries. The Germans operate and as far as I can remember are extremely proud of their exceptionally low-interest rate policies.\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>POINTS TO NOTE:</strong></span>\n<ul>\n	<li>The thought of cash injections in the Eurozone like the FED has done would give German’s a massive nosebleed at only just the thought of such a policy. (Should they adopt this very unlikely route buy shares in “Scotties Tissues”…they will be selling by the truckload around Frankfurt and Brussels).</li>\n	<li>The Eurozone banks are still not lending in general terms and therefore a rate cut would in my opinion cause problems for them as lending at a low-cost base.</li>\n	<li>The German’s do not move fast and history shows that should they and the ECB react inside of two weeks, which has been the time span for this action, it would be seen as a panic decision.</li>\n	<li>Always remember, the ECB being under pressure due to low inflation is something that Germany does not mind coping with. Their whole economy is based upon low inflation policies, and as for the other members of the single currency “Tough Sh*t!!”</li>\n</ul>\nI think that there will be a conversation at the two–day meeting, but they will say wait until December (the next meeting) when they will have more data upon which to make a judgment call.\n\nI do believe that there is monumental pressure on Draghi to talk down the EUR/USD value from 1.3500 to a much lower level. The question is what is fair value for the exchange rate 1.2000-1.2500? We will have to wait and see.\n\nAhead of this news event I am in cash on the sidelines and I am debating whether the positions I enter, will I hold into Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday. I will update via Twitter.<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b>\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">2. EXISTING LIVE TRADES:</span></b>\n\nI have no live trades ahead of the ECB news.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">3. POTENTIAL TRADES ON MY RADAR:</span></b>\n\nI am only focusing on two currencies into the ECB news event. EUR/USD and USD/CHF.\n\n<b>EUR/USD:</b>\n\nThe news slant is so heavy to talk the EURO weaker.\n\nI really want to be short the EUR/USD around 1.3600. Key support now lies at 1.3440. I just cannot see 1.3600 unfortunately ahead of the ECB. The next best level to enter short is 1.3580 then 1.3540. The latter number is probably the highest we will see prior to Draghi taking the stage.\n\nOn the 240 minutes (4 hour) chart there is a flag pattern developing and a break through 1.3440 sets up a measured move to 1.3100.\n\n&nbsp;\n<p align=\"center\"><b>EUR/USD\n</b><b>Short\n</b><b>Desired Entries: 1.3540 or higher\n</b><b>Stop Loss 1.3600\n</b><b>Target once confirmed through 1.3440 is 1.3100</b></p>\n<b>USD/CHF:</b>\n\nThis pair is not pulling back. Should the EUR/USD head lower I think this pair has a great opportunity to break much higher.\n\n&nbsp;\n<p align=\"center\"><b>USD/CHF\n</b><b>Long\n</b><b>Enter at: 0.9150\n</b><b>Stop Loss: 0.9080\n</b><b>Limit /Target: 0.9250</b></p>\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">4. FINAL THOUGHTS:</span></b>\n\nBig news tomorrow (Thursday) and again on Friday with U.S. Non-Farm payrolls. These type of days really test a trader’s patience and the key abilities of when to enter and exit trades. Do not get caught. Trade smart, trade lean and mean until your position is established.\n\nNo one knows what is going to happen. Let the trades come to you, remember, If you have a plan stick to it.\n\nTrade with this in mind and trade carefully.\n\nGood luck and take care.\n\nScott Pickering\nThe Pip Accumulator\nWednesday November 6th 2013\n\nFOLLOW ME AT:\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\nGoogle+/scottpickering\n\n&nbsp;','THE MIDWEEK FIX #7  (06.11.2013)','','publish','open','closed','','midweek-fix-7-06-11-2013','','','2013-11-06 09:36:30','2013-11-06 14:36:30','',0,'http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/?p=2068',0,'post','',0),(2073,1,'2013-11-09 12:31:21','2013-11-09 17:31:21','09.11.2013\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">1. INTRODUCTION:</span></b>\r\n\r\nWow…that was some week.\r\n\r\nBetween Draghi surprising the markets with an ECB interest rate cut of 0.25%, the U.S.GDP at 2.8% and Non Farm Payrolls, the data / news events have certainly confirmed in my mind what direction to trade the fx market moving forward.\r\n\r\nOver recent weeks I have felt a little “wishy-washy” in some decision-making, and I have been to some extent convincing myself that I was a 100% convinced on what the markets were telling me. The technicals / charts made some sense but the fundamentals were telling me something different…but I still traded in line with the technicals. At one point I even became a “Scalper” trader something that I am not good at, or like, but the trades just did not seem correct for anything other than a few minutes.\r\n\r\nThis uncertainty has now come to an end. Without doubt I am certain in my mind what to do and I have a plan.\r\n\r\nAlthough, it absolutely killed me, I ignored trading Non-Farm payroll yesterday (Friday), I had no live trades prior to the data release. In recent weeks I have had very mixed results and I did not want a poor NFP to screw up what had been a good weeks trading, so I sidelined myself.  I listened to the news, wrote down levels for the EUR/USD, NZD/USD and AUD/USD and went into the garden with my dogs and collected “Dog Poop”. I was away for about an hour.  My predictions were not too bad…damn… I could have made $$$!\r\n\r\nThere is a currency market everyday. I am now looking for pullbacks to sell into in a vast range of currency pairs that are now on my radar. There are thousands of pips available so I do not need to worry about missing a 100-pip drop after NFP across the three trades that I would have entered.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">2. THE VIEW FROM MY TRADING DESK:</span></b>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">I BELIEVE THAT THE SMART MONEY IS LEAVING EQUITIES AND MOVING INTO CASH</span></b></p>\r\nSo much happened last week that I am going to try to be concise, although it will be difficult…I am from Liverpool after all!  The news events and data releases have, in my mind, confirmed what I have been thinking for a few months from around late summer and now my plan can be put in place for the next few months.\r\n\r\nI believe that the “Smart money” investors in equities are already ahead of me and some of what was confirmed this week has already sparked a chain reaction with the key movers and shakers. I really think they are moving if they have not already moved away from equities.\r\n\r\nI think that we are now very close to the top of the U.S. equity “Bull Run”. This fact is key in everything that I am thinking of looking forward, but outside of the U.S. additional things have happened that will help me place a direction on forex trading for the foreseeable future.\r\n\r\nHere are my thoughts: -\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>1. THE ECB (European Central Bank)</strong></span>\r\n\r\nWhat was very interesting for me reading the notes from the press conference was that Draghi kept his forward guidance unchanged. In ECB talk, this means that the present rates will be kept where they are now for an extended period of time. This actually hints at the possibility of negative rates. Finally, he kept the LTRO (Long Term Refinancing Option) in full to at least the end of 2015. This was big news.\r\n\r\nThe Eurozone is in crisis.\r\n\r\nI have written several times after watching ECB press conferences that Draghi’s body language was saying the opposite of his mouth. He was shifty, twitchy, hand movements were wild and at times he was also very croaky with his voice in his delivery. This points to him hiding his true thoughts. He was trying his best to camouflage issues around growth and hide deflation in the periphery.\r\n\r\nThe Eurozone is run as if all member countries were provinces / regions of Germany. Germany’s low rate inflation policy of years and years was used as the approach. It may be successful in Germany but that does not mean it would be successful throughout the single currency zone. As I have stated on numerous occasions 17 into 1 does not go. One policy is difficult to implement to cover the whole Eurozone area exactly the same from country to country. 17 counties using the same chequebook does NOT work. There is integration talk on major policies that are repeatedly referred to such as, “Banking Unions” and “Taxation Efficiencies and Harmonies”…. it’s never going to happen or integrate effectively. It’s apparently vital to the success of the Eurozone. If these two factors were vital they would be in place by now. The reason neither of these two examples is in place is because there is no harmony, no agreements on implementation, management, review etc., plain and simple.\r\n\r\nI am not going to list Eurozone issues other than list the following headings that spring straight to mind: -\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong>GDP</strong>\r\n<strong> UNEMPLOYMENT</strong>\r\n<strong> HOUSING</strong>\r\n<strong> CPi</strong>\r\n<strong> DEFLATION</strong>\r\n<strong> BAD DEBT</strong>\r\n<strong> SOCIAL UNREST</strong>\r\n<strong> SOCIAL SERVICES</strong>\r\n<strong> HEALTH CUTBACKS</strong></p>\r\nAs the interest rate cut will make the EUR carry trade less attractive sellers will come into the market and the EUR value will lower. This will help exporters, but ignoring all that, it gives us as fx traders an edge and a direction to trade. The EUR/USD will head lower.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>2. IMPROVING U.S. DATA GDP  and TAPERING</strong></span>\r\n\r\n45 minutes after the Draghi rate cut bombshell the U.S. GDP figures were released. GDP growth at 2.8%, a blowout number. What government shutdown?\r\nThe calls for tapering from the FED are approaching volume level 100. Sooner rather than later tapering will happen. This will strengthen the USD, I am not so sure what this will do for the housing recovery, which, incidentally seems to be ramping up and prices are jumping like crazy. As a trader USD strength should enter the market. The EUR/USD will head lower.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>3. USD/JPY FAILED BREAKOUT</strong></span>\r\n\r\nAfter the GDP release the USD/JPY broke out of the weekly triangle pattern that had been containing prices in a range of 96.80 to 99.00. It blasted through, and then pulled back over 180 pips.\r\n\r\nOn the daily chart there is now a massive red reversal candle. Usually following a massive breakout failure the reversal is normally very powerful. I think the only reason we never saw a massive move was because 24 hours later the key NFP release was due.\r\n\r\nIn the coming sessions, the USD/JPY is set to move lower in my opinion. It steadied again yesterday (Friday) after NFP, but this in my opinion will be just temporary. This will place pressure on equities. As equities fall the USD will strengthen. The EUR/USD will head lower.\r\n\r\n<strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">4. THE S&amp;P IS NOW READY FOR A CORRECTION</span></strong>\r\n\r\nI think as long as we have the FED “Free Money” being circulated; the upward pressure will remain in place in the equity markets. Technically we are at extremes in the S&amp;P charts.\r\nThe markets are just in buy mode only; I think it’s crazy and complacent. The swings between up days and down days are now triple digit, it’s uncertainty in the markets driving this volatility. We are due a correction. The line is the sand to define bullish or bearish sentiment is 1728.\r\n\r\nMy problem is I do not see a small correction. I see a 20% minimum pullback / correction in the S&amp;P towards 1300 S&amp;P points, maybe more 1250-1280 looks a better support area.\r\n\r\nRed lights and alarm bells are going off in my head. The ECB has acted so fast it’s out of the normal…there are huge issues ahead facing Draghi and Merkel. The Fed is going to taper, probably sooner rather than later, the data in the U.S. is getting better. At the same time the Eurozone is in poor shape.\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>Gold is on the cusp of a breakdown, it is struggling with $1300; it is not going up, it fell to $1285 yesterday (Friday). I see a challenge of $1250 again very soon and then I suspect we head lower. Gold is a hedge against inflation…what inflation…where is it?</li>\r\n	<li>Oil is falling back below $100.</li>\r\n	<li>Copper is struggling to maintain $3.30.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nAll of these factors add to USD strength. Correlations count and mean something in trading. All of these factors influence my decision making process.\r\n\r\nYou should also note in the past 7 days the AUD/USD, one of my lead indicators has fallen over 200 pips. This has happened at a time the Dow Jones and S&amp;P have reached “all time” new highs. Divergence…lead indicator…we must take note.\r\n\r\nThe only factor that is unknown is, how are the numpties in Washington going to react when the debt ceiling and party political issues in Washington rise up in January / February next year?\r\n\r\nHaving reflected upon all the above factors, I still believe that the smart money is exiting equities and reverting to cash. I believe this despite all the calls for a “Santa Claus” rally into the New Year. Just because it always happens does not mean it has to every year.\r\n\r\nWhat keeps plaguing me is the effect on the EUR/USD, with so many influencers affecting it: - the very recent JPY failure, the introduction of tapering, the effects of ECB Growth and Deflation and U.S. equity pullbacks. The EUR/USD could be trading below 1.3000 maybe even below 1.2500 in the coming months, maybe even lower.\r\n\r\nI have charts below with my targets on my three favourite currencies to trade EUR/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD. Later in the blog, I have my projected objectives on my radar trades (there are lots of them) later in the blog as usual the entry levels are critical. I have placed limit and stop orders with my broker on all of these trades already.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/EURUSD-MONTHLY-09112013-1024x526.png\"><img src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/EURUSD-MONTHLY-09112013-1024x526.png\" alt=\"EURUSD-MONTHLY-09112013-1024x526\" width=\"1024\" height=\"526\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-3000\" /></a>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/AUDUSD-MONTHLY-09112013-1024x526.png\"><img src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/AUDUSD-MONTHLY-09112013-1024x526.png\" alt=\"AUDUSD-MONTHLY-09112013-1024x526\" width=\"1024\" height=\"526\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-3001\" /></a>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/NZDUSD-MONTHLY-09112013-1024x526.png\"><img src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/NZDUSD-MONTHLY-09112013-1024x526.png\" alt=\"NZDUSD-MONTHLY-09112013-1024x526\" width=\"1024\" height=\"526\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-3002\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong><em>Over the coming sessions I will be looking very closely at levels and correlations. I think that I have written the following several times over the years of writing my forex blog.</em></strong></p>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>1. Commodities lead the way: - Look at Gold, Oil and Copper</i></strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>2. Commodity currencies react: - The AUD/USD (a key lead indicator) has already shown divergence away from the S&amp;P. Also look at USD/CAD, USD/NOK and the USD/SEK.</i></strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>\r\n3. The Bond Market reacts: - Watch U.S. 10 year treasuries. As yields go up the USD/JPY sells off.</i></strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>\r\n4. Equities are last to the party: - This is where I think that the smart money has already moved out of equities because of the first 3 items in my list. The S&amp;P falls and this adds to USD strength.</i></strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><em><strong>My trades (EUR/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD) at this stage should move from the volatile stage to the very directional stage.</strong></em></p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">3. MY CURRENT LIVE TRADES:</span></b>\r\n\r\nI have no live trades at the moment.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">4. TRADES THAT ARE ON MY RADAR:</span></b>\r\n\r\nI have a lot of trades that are on my radar. Many of these may not trigger as my entries are based on levels that I feel comfortable with. The profit potential with these trades is huge and I may have to adjust entries over time based upon revised pullbacks.\r\n\r\nMy point to get across here is that I am waiting for the trades to come to me.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>1. EUR/USD\r\n</b><b>Short\r\n</b><b>Entry: 1.3450\r\n</b><b>Stop: 1.3510\r\n</b><b>Limit: 1.3150 (initial objective)</b><b> </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>2. AUD/USD\r\n</b><b>Short\r\n</b><b>Entry: 0.9425\r\n</b><b>Stop: 0.9550\r\n</b><b>Limit: 0.9000 (initial objective)</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>3. NZD/USD\r\n</b><b>Short\r\n</b><b>Entry: 0.8270\r\n</b><b>Stop: 0.8350\r\n</b><b>Limit: 0.8000 (initial objective)</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>4. USD/CAD\r\n</b><b>Long\r\n</b><b>Entry: 1.0445\r\n</b><b>Stop: 1.0380\r\n</b><b>Limit: 1.0580</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>5. USD/CHF\r\n</b><b>Long\r\n</b><b>Entry: 0.9150\r\n</b><b>Stop: 0.9050\r\n</b><b>Limit: 0.9450</b><b> </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>6. EUR/GBP\r\n</b><b>Short\r\n</b><b>Entry: 0.8370\r\n</b><b>Stop: 0.8420\r\n</b><b>Limit: 0.8000</b><b> </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>7. GBP/AUD\r\n</b><b>Long\r\n</b><b>Entry: 1.6920\r\n</b><b>Stop: 1.6650\r\n</b><b>Limit: 1.9240</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>8. EUR/AUD\r\n</b><b>Long\r\n</b><b>Entry: 1.4120\r\n</b><b>Stop: 1.3920\r\n</b><b>Limit: 1.4550</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>9. GBP/NZD\r\n</b><b>Long\r\n</b><b>Entry: 1.9350\r\n</b><b>Stop: 1.9250\r\n</b><b>Limit: 1.9800 (initial objective)</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>10. EUR/NZD\r\n</b><b>Long\r\n</b><b>Entry: 1.6120\r\n</b><b>Stop: 1.5980\r\n</b><b>Limit: 1.6435 (initial objective)</b><b> </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b> </b></p>\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">5. LOOKING FORWARD…THE KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS:</span></b>\r\n\r\n<b>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3364.</b>  From last Fridays’ close it’s about a 350 pip drop lower in the past 7 days. That is quite some move so I am expecting a little consolidation before resuming the move to the down side.<b> </b>Resistance should be really good at 1.3450 and it would be just brilliant to be able to establish an entry short around that level. Support is obviously at 1.3300 or 1.3295. Beyond those levels 1.3250 sits next. I do think that there is the potential for a real big move lower.\r\n\r\n<b>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.6012. </b>The support level of 1.6000 has been tested several times over the latter parts of last week but like a magnet the cable is pulled back to it. I think that whilst it is proving to be tough to crack it will break, in particular if the EUR/USD heads lower. Support is also good at 1.5900 should it break lower and resistance is stubborn at 1.6120.\r\n\r\n<b>AUD/USD: Closing Price 0.9384</b>.  Bias and sentiment has changed in the Aussie. We closed on Friday, over 200 pips lower in the week. The RBA has indicated once again that they feel the value of this pair to be too high. It should also be noted that as the equities markets reach new highs the AUD/USD has fallen. This is divergence and the correlation is broken. This pair is a lead indicator and this fact should not go unnoticed. Support is really good at 0.9250. Only minor support at 0.9300 stands in the way. Resistance will be good at 0.9400 and 0.9460. The bias is now bearish with this pair.\r\n\r\n<b>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8239</b>. I find this pair more stubborn than the Aussie to move lower. Wheeler at the RBNZ is still talking about rate increases early 2014 and this is hanging over this pair. We have edged lower in the past 7 days but only by about 40 pips. The AUD/USD has moved 5 times this movement lower by comparison. The range is 0.8200 support, to 0.8350 resistance.\r\n\r\n<b>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.0477.  </b>We are stuck in a range that is getting me bored. We need a break out 1.0400 to 1.0500. Trade the range if you feel you have to trade this pair.\r\n\r\n<b>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.9211.  </b>I missed the move higher with this pair and I am really annoyed with myself for doing so. The fresh range is 0.9150 support, to 0.9250 resistance.\r\n\r\n<b>USD/JPY: Closing Price 99.04. </b> I have made several predictions about the JPY recently and it still trades inside the Daily Chart Triangle pattern. I think it will break lower before heading higher and the recent false breakout backs up my point but we need to see some action. 96.80 and 97.40 are support levels and 99.20 resistance.<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">6. MAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:</span></b>\r\n\r\nSUNDAY: N/A\r\n\r\nMONDAY: N/A\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: GBP - CPi\r\nTUESDAY: NZD – RBNZ Wheeler talks.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: GBP – Unemployment Data.\r\nWEDNESDAY: GBP – BOE Carney speaks and BOE Inflation Report\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: GBP – Retail Sales.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: USD – FED Yellen testifies\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">7. FINAL THOUGHTS:</span></b>\r\n\r\nNot much by way of news that interests me this week.\r\n\r\nI will be spending most of my time trying to gain the best entry levels for my radar trades, at the same time checking the markets for a start of what I think will be pull backs / sell offs in equities.\r\n\r\nI will update in the middle of the week with the “Midweek Fx Fix”.\r\n\r\nGood luck and take care.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>Scott Pickering</strong>\r\n<strong>The Pip Accumulator</strong>\r\n<strong>Saturday November 9th 2013 </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>FOLLOW ME AT:</strong>\r\n<strong>Twitter: @pipaccumulator</strong>\r\n<strong>Google+/scottpickering</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>','I BELIEVE THAT THE SMART MONEY IS LEAVING EQUITIES AND MOVING INTO CASH','','publish','open','closed','','believe-smart-money-leaving-equities-moving-cash','','','2014-01-17 14:31:05','2014-01-17 19:31:05','',0,'http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/?p=2073',0,'post','',0),(2053,1,'2013-11-02 12:17:48','2013-11-02 17:17:48','&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">1. INTRODUCTION:</span></b>\r\n\r\n<b></b>The title of my blog last week was: -  “THE JPY WILL SOON DICTATE THE MARKET DIRECTION”. It looks like it will have the big say in the markets direction, however, I was focused on it breaking lower through support at 97.00 not breaking higher through resistance around 99.00-99.20. The pair is now just below the triangle resistance line on the weekly chart  with its close this week at 98.66 and one small push higher may see it break through. As a forex trader you have be a lot things, but being flexible is probably one of the major characteristics. On a personal note though, I am disappointed that I did not get the opportunity, so far that is (never say never), to enter the USD/JPY long around 95.00.\r\n\r\nThe big news in the week just gone was the FOMC statement. Following which, the market interpreted the release completely different than the earlier release yet it was only one line different in real terms from the statement released last month. Talk about a fickle market?\r\n\r\nIn any event, it is what it is, and, the EUR/USD got smacked, good style. It appears that we may have seen the highs in this pair at 1.3830. We now trade over 300 pips lower and there are now calls for a single currency interest rate cut.  These calls for the rate cut emanated from the release of continued poor employment statistics for the Eurozone (that are still in excess of 12% and at record highs) and in addition dreadful inflation figures for the Eurozone both sets of data were released the day after the FOMC.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">2. THE VIEW FROM MY TRADING DESK:</span></b>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">THE EURO IS ABOUT TO OFFER SOME INTERESTING TRADING OPPORTUNITIES AS THE CONTINUED EUR/USD DECLINE APPROACHES 1.3450; PLUS WE HAVE A DRAGHI PRESS CONFERENCE ON THE HORIZON JUST FOR GOOD MEASURE AND ADD EXTRA SPICE</span></b></p>\r\nThe EUR/USD is dropping nicely towards a key level of support at 1.3450. It is very oversold at the moment and usually this means that a period of consolidation should be around the corner. Having just written that, if you recall when the USD/JPY was on the “Abe” rampage earlier this year from 85.00 to 105.00 it was for most of the time over bought and that didn’t matter too much. I do think though we should bear the oversold conditions in mind. It just cannot keep straight lining lower.\r\n\r\nThe support level in the EUR/USD at 1.3450 was the breakout level from a previous FED meeting and for days/weeks following contained price movements. As we trade towards this level there are options available in the EUR across the board not just the EUR/USD but also the cross-pairs EUR/CAD, EUR/AUD, EUR/NZD and EUR/GBP. Trading these crosses increases your risk as these pairs, with the exception of the EUR/GBP, move very fast and can be very volatile.\r\n\r\nI am presently short the EUR/USD from a cost average of 1.3541. Just below 1.3500 I reduced my trade size from 100% to 40% to limit my risk as we get closer to 1.3450. I am hoping that the EUR/USD continues to fall and should it do so I will add to my position. At the same time I am ready for it to bounce from support at 1.3450. When possible, I will move my stop, which, is now at break even probably to 1.3490 in tandem with the EUR/USD fall so that I can keep profits if it does bounce at 1.3450.\r\n\r\nThere is a major news event for the Eurozone on the horizon. On Thursday we have an interest rate decision and an ECB press conference to follow. There are calls that are getting louder for the ECB to cut interest rates. An ECB press conference is usually a volatile news event so if rates are cut and we have a chance for Draghi to talk the single currency lower we could see a huge move. On the other hand if nothing is done, the EUR/USD has great potential to rally\r\n\r\nBelow, I give my trade ideas for both options long and short (bear in mind the EUR/USD may test 1.3450 ahead of the ECB interest rate decision and press conference).\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">EUR/USD:</span></b>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/EURUSD-DAILY-CHART-02112013-1024x5161.png\"><img src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/EURUSD-DAILY-CHART-02112013-1024x5161.png\" alt=\"EURUSD-DAILY-CHART-02112013-1024x516\" width=\"1024\" height=\"516\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-3006\" /></a>\r\n\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>THIS WEEK’S CLOSING POSITION: 1.3486</strong>\r\n\r\nFrom the chart above you can see two very long red daily candles, the EUR/USD is without doubt bearish. There is the potential for a large move lower should rates be cut. The recent fundamental news in the Eurozone has been poor, and, whilst I think the pair will bounce if rates are not cut a lot of attention and subsequent moves in the pair will be dependant upon what Draghi says in the press conference, so the bounce could be limited. We will have to wait and see.\r\n\r\n<strong>WITH A RATE CUT:</strong>  The 50% retracement of the move highlighted in the chart above is just below 1.3300. I see this as the first goal lower.\r\n\r\n<strong>NO RATE CUT:</strong> The bounce will happen but it may not be as dramatic as we think it could be because of poor fundamentals. The first goal would be a move back to 1.3580.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">EUR/CAD:</span></b>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/EURCAD-DAILY-CHART-02112013-1024x516.png\"><img src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/EURCAD-DAILY-CHART-02112013-1024x516.png\" alt=\"EURCAD-DAILY-CHART-02112013-1024x516\" width=\"1024\" height=\"516\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-3007\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong>THIS WEEK’S CLOSING POSITION: 1.4049</strong>\r\n\r\nFrom the chart above you can see that we are on trend line support at 1.4082. I took a long trade in this area yesterday (Friday) a very small position with a tight stop of 80 pips.\r\n\r\n<strong>WITH A RATE CUT:</strong> I think that I would be stopped out if I am still in this trade. The target for the first resting place on a move lower would be 1.3940. This would represent a full retracement of the move on the chart. The potential however could be to go a lot lower.\r\n\r\n<strong>NO RATE CUT:</strong> I think that a move back to 1.4250 would be possible and that is what I am hoping for should we see a bounce with this currency pair.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">EUR/AUD:</span></b>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/EURAUD-DAILY-02112013-1024x516.png\"><img src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/EURAUD-DAILY-02112013-1024x516.png\" alt=\"EURAUD-DAILY-02112013-1024x516\" width=\"1024\" height=\"516\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-3008\" /></a>\r\n\r\n\r\n<strong>THIS WEEKS CLOSING POSITION: 1.4284</strong>\r\n\r\nAs you can see from the chart above we are in a triangle pattern. This pair causes me some issues and as a result unless I have a 100% confirmation of a move I would personally not trade it.\r\n\r\nI would also like confirmation of how the AUD/USD is moving before thinking about trading this pair in either direction.\r\n\r\n<strong>WITH A RATE CUT:</strong> We could fall very quickly to 1.4100. This would seem to be a great place to think about taking a long trade.\r\n\r\n<strong>NO RATE CUT:</strong> The move back to 1.4520 and beyond could be in play.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">EUR/NZD:</span></b>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/EURNZD-DAILY-CHART-02112013-1024x516.png\"><img src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/EURNZD-DAILY-CHART-02112013-1024x516.png\" alt=\"EURNZD-DAILY-CHART-02112013-1024x516\" width=\"1024\" height=\"516\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-3009\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong>THIS WEEK’S CLOSING POSITION: 1.6303</strong>\r\n\r\nThe move lower has basically taken this pair from trend line resistance back to trend line support based on the daily chart above, that was a swift move from 1.6700 to 1.6300. A long trade offers good risk / reward if you want to try. Personally, I would want the NZD/USD to be moving in the same direction as the EUR/USD to give me the confidence to enter a trade with this pair.\r\n\r\n<strong>WITH A RATE CUT:</strong> This pair could be as low as 1.6000 very, very quickly. I would be long here.\r\n\r\n<strong>NO RATE CUT:</strong> A bounce to 1.6500 could be seen, maybe higher.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b>EUR/GBP:</b>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/EURGBP-DAILY-02112013-1024x516.png\"><img src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/EURGBP-DAILY-02112013-1024x516.png\" alt=\"EURGBP-DAILY-02112013-1024x516\" width=\"1024\" height=\"516\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-3010\" /></a>\r\n\r\n\r\n<strong>THIS WEEK’S CLOSING POSITION: 0.8466</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>WITH A RATE CUT:</strong> This pair could be trading at 0.8425, which is the 61.8% retracement of the last big move on the daily chart. If this level does not hold 0.8375 is the next level.\r\n\r\n<strong>NO RATE CUT:</strong> A move back to 0.8500 and then 0.8525.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nI will review these trade ideas as the week progresses via Twitter and in the “Midweek Fx Fix” on Wednesday.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">3. MY CURRENT LIVE TRADES:</span></b>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>EUR/USD\r\n</b><b>Short\r\n</b><b>Yesterday’s Closing Position 1.3486\r\n</b><b>Entry / Cost Average: 1.3541\r\n</b><b>Position Size: 40%\r\n</b><b>Stop Loss: 1.3538 (basically a break even stop)\r\n</b><b>Target / Limit: 1.3250\r\n</b><b>Present Position: +54 pips</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>USD/CAD\r\n</b><b>Long\r\n</b><b>Yesterday’s Closing Position 1.0418\r\n</b><b>Entry / Cost Average: 1.0486\r\n</b><b>Position Size: 40%\r\n</b><b>Stop Loss: 1.0350\r\n</b><b>Target / Limit: 1.0540\r\n</b><b>Present Position: -68 pips</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>NZD/USD\r\n</b><b>Short\r\n</b><b>Yesterday’s Closing Position 0.8264\r\n</b><b>Entry / Cost Average: 08257\r\n</b><b>Position Size: 40%\r\n</b><b>Stop Loss: 0.8340\r\n</b><b>Target / Limit: 0.8150\r\n</b><b>Present Position: -17 pips</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>EUR/CAD\r\n</b><b>Long\r\n</b><b>Yesterday’s Closing Position 1.4049\r\n</b><b>Entry / Cost Average: 1.4096\r\n</b><b>Position Size: 20%\r\n</b><b>Stop Loss: 1.4000\r\n</b><b>Target / Limit: 1.4250\r\n</b><b>Present Position: -47 pips</b></p>\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">4. OTHER POTENTIAL TRADES THAT ARE ON MY RADAR:</span></b>\r\n\r\nI am focused on the moves with the EUR and it’s crosses. I do however have one limit order trade still in position with my broker. I have not cancelled it and although it is quite some way away from the current market. It is set at a key level in my opinion so I am going to leave it in place.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>USD/CHF\r\n</b><b>Long at: 0.8865\r\n</b><b>Stop Loss: 0.8825\r\n</b><b>Initial Target: 0.9000</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b> </b></p>\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">5. LOOKING FORWARD…THE KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS:</span></b>\r\n\r\n<b>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3486.</b> Definitely in a bearish trend. 1.3450 looms as key support.  I see resistance at 1.3580. Only at this level would the bulls resume control.\r\n\r\n<b>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.5922.  </b>Critical support at 1.5900 lies ahead. If we break below here I see 1.5750 looming. A lot depends on how the EUR/USD trades as to how the cable will react. It is now bearish in my mind. Resistance for this pair is at 1.6010.\r\n\r\n<b>AUD/USD: Closing Price 0.9436</b>.  I think that I want to short the \"Aussie\". But not here around 0.9520-0.9560 seems to be the resistance area. Support is really where we closed at 0.9440. I see 0.9350 as the next level lower.\r\n\r\n<b>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8264</b>. Little change in the week. Why am I always trying to trade this pair lower? I keep asking myself that question and I still do not know the answer. We seem range bound with the \"Kiwi\". As I see it 0.8200 to 0.8340 is the range. Be clever wait for it to break free to give you the direction. I suppose being sensible the pair has consolidated this week after last weeks 200 pip drop lower. I would still wait for a range break before entering a trade.\r\n\r\n<b>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.0418. </b>Some good Canadian data has kept the lid on the \"Loonie\" breaking out. Maybe this week it will happen if the EUR/USD falls. The range is 1.0380 to 1.0440\r\n\r\n<b>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.9119. </b>I missed my trade from lower levels with this pair..argh!! Now it is setting up to move higher. The range I am looking at is 0.9050 to 0.9200.\r\n\r\n<b>USD/JPY: Closing Price 98.66.  </b>The JPY \"Abe and Kuroda\" freight train rolls on. I just cannot fathom out this pair. One minute I think collapse, the next squeeze higher. On the upside a break through 99.20 sets up 100.00. On the downside 97.50 sets up a move to the critical 97.00 support.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">6. MAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:</span></b>\r\n\r\nSUNDAY: AUD – Retail Sales.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: AUD – Cash Rate &amp; RBA rate statement.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: USD – ISM Non Manufacturing PMi.\r\nTUESDAY: NZD – Unemployment Rate.\r\nTUESDAY: AUD – Trade Balance\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: CAD – Ivey PMi.\r\nWEDNESDAY: AUD – Employment Rate.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: GBP – Interest Rate &amp; Asset Purchase Facility.\r\nTHURSDAY: EUR – Interest Rate &amp; ECB Press Conference.\r\nTHURSDAY: AUD – RBA Monetary Policy Statement.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: CAD – Unemployment Rate.\r\nFRIDAY: USD – Non Farm Payroll &amp; Unemployment rate.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">7. FINAL THOUGHTS:</span></b>\r\n\r\nLots of news items during this next week that will/ should be market movers. I think that this is a week where you should be selective in what you trade. Keep your risks to a minimum.\r\n\r\nAs always, trade mean and trade lean inside the limits of your trading plan.\r\n\r\nI will update in the middle of the week ahead of the ECB press conference, which, is the pick of the news events, with the “Midweek Fx Fix”.\r\n\r\nGood luck and take care.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nSaturday November 2nd 2013\r\n\r\nFOLLOW ME AT:\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\nGoogle+/scottpickering\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','THE EURO OFFERS UP SOME GREAT $$$ OPPORTUNITIES','','publish','open','closed','','euro-offers-great-opportunities','','','2014-01-17 14:38:59','2014-01-17 19:38:59','',0,'http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/?p=2053',0,'post','',0),(2050,1,'2013-10-30 08:34:00','2013-10-30 13:34:00','&nbsp;\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">1. INTRODUCTION:</span></b>\n\nSince last weekend’s blog “The Weekly Fx Drive-Thru” the JPY has not played out the way that I was anticipating.\n\nFor now, it’s a bummer, as I really wanted to pick up the USD/JPY long below the 97.00 level. Just remember, we are still in the daily chart triangle range and until we break either 97.00 to the downside or 99.00 to the upside we are stuck. The chart is a bullish pennant and we should see a break out to the long side, but, if the FED continues to buy bonds and mortgage backed securities, yields will fall and this should place the USD/JPY under pressure, and, it should drop. Bear this in mind; my trade idea of the USD/JPY long at 95.00 may still come into play. You just never know.\n\nMoving on, today (Wednesday) we have a “market moving” event, the release of a FOMC meeting statement. The big news around this statement are comments relating to tapering, whilst I do not think that we will see tapering in 2013, you just never know. We may get a surprise from the FED, I doubt it, however, as traders we have to be ready to trade whatever the hand is that we are dealt.\n\nWith the FED release, it is normally advisable to close all USD related trades, as volatility can be terrific.\n\nI am currently long the USD/CAD (one of my live trades) and I have been for some time. I am debating whether or not I should close it or not. I probably will later this morning before the announcement. I will tweet my actions.\n\nMy radar trades at the moment are limited in number until after the minutes are released and the dust settles, however, I have two trades in mind that work either side of the market reaction to the FED (See “Trades on my Radar” section 3 below).\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b>\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">2. EXISTING LIVE TRADES:</span></b>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>EUR/CAD\n</b><b>Long\n</b><b>Position Size: 40%\n</b><b>Entry / Cost Average: 1.4407\n</b><b>Stop Loss: 1.4310\n</b><b>Limit / Take Profit: 1.4800\n</b><b>Present Position: - 42 pips</b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>EUR/AUD\n</b><b>Long\n</b><b>Position Size: 20%\n</b><b>Entry / Cost Average: 1.4464\n</b><b>Stop Loss: 1.4360\n</b><b>Limit / Take Profit: 1.4950\n</b><b>Present Position: + 5 pips</b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>USD/CAD\n</b><b>Long\n</b><b>Position Size: 20%\n</b><b>Entry / Cost Average: 1.0416\n</b><b>Stop Loss: 1.0330\n</b><b>Limit / Take Profit: 1.0850\n</b><b>Present Position: + 29 pips</b></p>\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">3. POTENTIAL TRADES ON MY RADAR:</span></b>\n\nI have several limit/stop orders with my broker that I am comfortable to leave in place through the FED release. These trades are to enter long or short at key levels, and they are very small trades to try to establish positions with. Stops are fairly tight on all of them.\n\n&nbsp;\n<p align=\"center\"><b>USD/JPY long at 94.80</b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b> </b><b>USD/CHF long at 0.8870</b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b> </b><b>AUD/USD short at 0.9560</b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b> </b><b>NZD/USD short at 0.8340</b></p>\n<b> </b>\n\n<b>EUR/USD:</b>\n\nMy FOMC trade involves the EUR/USD. In recent blog’s I have often referred to the range that the EUR/USD has been caught within for quite sometime. My trade is simple as nothing with forex is complicated.\n\nThe trades are based upon the market reaction to the FED statement. If it’s a dovish statement I look one way, and if it’s a hawkish statement, I look the other way.\n\n&nbsp;\n<p align=\"center\">The <b>EUR/USD</b> range that I am looking at is 1.3710 to 1.3850.</p>\n<p align=\"center\"><strong>TRADE 1:</strong>\nIf the USD weakens, which is my preferred trade. My goal trade is to short the EUR/USD around 1.3900 and keep adding to my short should it run up to 1.4000. I am looking for a move back to 1.3450 in the coming sessions.</p>\n<p align=\"center\"><strong>TRADE 2:</strong>\nThe opposite trade is to short at 1.3710 should the USD strengthen. I would let the pair break through and then short on a re-test of 1.3710. Remember what was previous support (1.3710) would become resistance if we fall through this level after the FED announcement.</p>\n&nbsp;\n\n<b>AUD/NZD:</b>\n\nAdditionally, I also have one other trade set up in mind. Following the announcement last night that Moody’s (U.S. Rating Agency) was discussing the possible removal of the AAA rating of New Zealand debt based upon its current account deficit and it’s ability to cope with major shocks to it’s economy.\n\nI am looking to trade the AUD/NZD long. However, I am going to try to wait until after RBNZ governor “Wheeler the dealer” makes his announcement later today after the RBNZ rate statement and overnight cash rate confirmation.\n\nProposed long entry level around 1.1460.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">4. FINAL THOUGHTS:</span></b>\n\nI find it very difficult to keep my hands off the keyboard when I know that I am going to be placing new trades later on in the day. Big news events days are always a little more nerve tingling.\n\nNo one knows what is going to happen. Will the FED be dovish or hawkish? The fact is there will be many people with opinions. As a forex trader I know what I am going to do after the news is released. The key is to wait and be patient for your entries to trigger. Let the trades come to you, remember, If you have a plan stick to it.\n\nTrade with this in mind and trade carefully.\n\nGood luck and take care.\n\n&nbsp;\n\nScott Pickering\nThe Pip Accumulator\nWednesday October 30th 2013\n\nFOLLOW ME AT:\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\n\n&nbsp;','THE MIDWEEK FX FIX #6 (30.10.2013)','','publish','open','closed','','midweek-fx-fix-6-30-10-2013','','','2013-10-30 08:34:00','2013-10-30 13:34:00','',0,'http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/?p=2050',0,'post','',0),(2039,1,'2013-10-26 11:54:10','2013-10-26 16:54:10','&nbsp;\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">1. INTRODUCTION:</span></b>\n\nAnother week….another few $$$ in my brokers account, but not as much as it should have been.\n\nThe hindsight trader within me is kicking himself over two or three silly trades, that quite frankly for someone who has been trading for over five years should never have made. I know that you should never look back, you must learn from mistakes and move forward, but, if only…c’est la vie\n\nThe USD continues to show weakness. Even poor Eurozone PMi data and German weak “Ifo” numbers did not stop the EUR/USD grinding higher. This in my opinion is not because the single currency is so good but because the USD is soooooo bad!! I do think that the USD will have it’s day but in the past couple of weeks how many USD strength days have there been? I count one definite maybe two borderline days and I am being over generous with two.\n\nThe trades of the week obviously surround the CAD. The “loonie” finally playing the game and it looks like there is a little more to go. The BOC when keeping interest rates on hold earlier in the week moved all the Bravado comments from the press release about moving rates up etc. They fed the market what it was waiting for at long last, a good dose of “realism”. How in the name of sanity could the BOC raise rates when you have the dysfunctional numpties south of the border playing party political games gambling away any good U.S. economic data. Hell will freeze over first.\n\nThe other “loonies” in the U.S. are still bickering. They are getting ready for round two in the new year and they are not afraid to say so. Is it any wonder that the USD is weak. I think that the markets are not even anticipating tapering until the second quarter of 2014, at the earliest. Uncertainty and Washington power struggles = weak USD.  In last weeks blog I gave three good reasons, in my opinion, for continued USD weakness. These have not changed, and they are below: -\n<ol>\n	<li><i></i><i></i><i>The ratings agencies downgrade. Not just the Chinese agency down grade but also the S&amp;P negative outlook. Moody’s claims no adjustment for 2 years. Quite frankly how an agency can say this beggars belief. Do they not have memories from 2008? Quite unbelievable and totally irresponsible.</i></li>\n	<li><i style=\"text-align: center;\"> </i><i style=\"text-align: center;\"></i><i style=\"text-align: center;\"></i><i style=\"text-align: center;\">The fact that tapering now looks to be so far in the distance, I am thinking it will take a miracle if it were to happen in the first half of 2014. There is no way the FED can rock the boat. We have continued uncertainty, as the peace will only last about 90 days, before the circus comes back to town. This will keep the FED intervening buying bonds etc.</i></li>\n	<li><i style=\"text-align: center;\">Who knows exactly what damage that the Government shutdown caused economically to the U.S. There are figures being quoted by some economists stating that it could be as much as 0.6% off GDP for Q4 2013. I do not know but this type of talk will keep the USD weak. The economic data that was not published during the shutdown starts to be released this week, but I do not think that we can trust the data 100% and we will require a couple of months to get back into the routine. For this reason this will add uncertainty in my opinion and uncertainty usually manifests itself as sell the USD.</i></li>\n</ol>\nFor fx traders this state of play = $$$ opportunities.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">2. THE VIEW FROM MY TRADING DESK:</span></b>\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">THE JPY WILL SOON DICTATE THE MARKET DIRECTION AND I BELIEVE I HAVE A COUPLE OF GREAT TRADE SET UPS</span></b></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\" align=\"center\">My blog of 10<sup>th</sup> August 2013 when I used the title “Move over king USD it’s king Yen for now”, this followed my blog on July 27<sup>th</sup> when I was looking at charts believing the USD/JPY was going to fall sub 95.00 in the coming sessions.</p>\nMy timings may not have been perfect but there is no doubt that the very liquid pairing of the USD/JPY is a major player in the fx market.\n\nThe USD/JPY operates so close to U.S. economic sentiment in normal trading conditions it cannot be ignored. It is a great indicator to market sentiment and it can be used to support and give guidance on inter-market moves. Once again it has moved into a key position and as I see it, it will probably have a major part in determining market direction. Nothing has really changed since my August blog in macro terms. In between then and now we have had the “Tapering” debate with the FED, followed by the U.S. government shutdown and debt ceiling fiasco. This took the attention away a little.\n\nLet me start off with a chart.\n\nBelow is the USD/JPY Daily chart.\n\n<a href=\"http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/USDJPY-DAILY-26102013.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-2044\" alt=\"USDJPY DAILY 26102013\" src=\"http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/USDJPY-DAILY-26102013-1024x516.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"516\" /></a>\n\n&nbsp;\n\nFrom this chart there is a pennant formation (triangle) highlighted. It is getting tighter every day and soon enough it will break. The problem is…I have no idea which way it is going to break. It looks at the moment that it’s going to break lower, but we will not know until we have a break confirmation. Usually, with this type of pennant formation the breakout is to the upside.\n\nI think that I should point out that I believe that the USD/JPY will ultimately weaken and be trading at 110.00 by the end of 2014. There are so many influences on the JPY that initially I think it will struggle to weaken and before it moves higher it has to go lower first\n\nThe influences in my opinion are: -\n<ol>\n	<li>U.S. political uncertainty.</li>\n	<li>U.S. Treasury Bonds are rallying in general terms but the USD/JPY is diverging.</li>\n	<li>I firmly believe that there will be a U.S. stock market pullback and this will affect the USD/JPY directly.</li>\n	<li>Pressure in Japan on “Abeconomics”. Whilst Abe has control of both houses in the Japanese legislature, there will be inward pressure on some of the economic changes he wants /needs to make to weaken the JPY. This initial pressure will manifest itself in actually strengthening the JPY.</li>\n	<li>The quantitative Easing (QE) programme that Abe has in position is not fully in place yet. Albeit at the end of the day, it will be almost three times greater than that in the U.S., it needs to be active, rather than be on a promise.</li>\n	<li>Commodity currencies, which as you know if you are regular readers of this blog, always lead the way. My key lead indicator the AUD is dropping away. The NZD is following and CAD spurred on by the BOC comments is also finally breaking new ground above 1.0400.</li>\n</ol>\nLooking back at the USD/JPY, the lower trend line was tested as recently as Thursday/Friday overnight and the key level of 97.00 held. To be more granular, I think the true support is actually 96.80. A break below here should be a nice one to about 95.00. What a great place to get long.\n\nThe upside breakout is going to be around the 98.60 to 99.00 levels. So there is a bit of a move required to break out to the upside.\n\nIn last weeks blog I suggested two long trades the EUR/USD and GBP/USD. Only the GBP trade would have triggered based upon my entry levels suggested. This trade had it been taken would have been a profitable trade, and, still would be if you were still holding the trade.\n\nThis week I am looking from the other side. I believe that should the USD/JPY break lower, this will give us Fx traders one really good, maybe the final chance of being able to short the EUR/USD close to the highs as seen on the long term monthly chart levels in the chart below.\n\n<a href=\"http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/EURUSD-MONTHLY-21102013.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-2042\" alt=\"EURUSD MONTHLY 21102013\" src=\"http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/EURUSD-MONTHLY-21102013-1024x516.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"516\" /></a>\n\n&nbsp;\n\nShould the USD/JPY break lower this should push the EUR/USD up to 1.3900 or 1.4000 very close to the trend line resistance in the chart of just over 1.4000.\n\nThis would be a great spot to short as you will know your risk level is probably a stop loss run above the trend line should we get there.\n\nI thought that the GBP/USD would also be a great short around 1.6450. But we double topped at 1.6260 ( when I say double topped the chart below shows 7/8 occasions this figure has held either on a downside or upside move) and quite frankly I am not certain would reach 1.6450. But never under-estimate cable, it continually proves me wrong. The chart below shows what I am referring to.\n\n<a href=\"http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/GBPUSD-MONTHLY-21102013.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-2043\" alt=\"GBPUSD MONTHLY 21102013\" src=\"http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/GBPUSD-MONTHLY-21102013-1024x516.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"516\" /></a>\n\n&nbsp;\n<p align=\"center\"><b>TRADE IDEA:\n</b><b>EUR/USD\n</b><b>Short at: 1.3900 –1.4000\n</b><b>Stop Loss: 1.4100\n</b><b>Initial Target: 1.3500</b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>TRADE IDEA:\n</b><b>GBP/USD\n</b><b>Short at: 1.6400-1.6450\n</b><b>Stop Loss: 1.6500\n</b><b>Initial Target: 1.6000</b></p>\n&nbsp;\n\nObviously, as I mentioned earlier, the opportunity to take the USD/JPY long at 95.00 or thereabouts would also be a great trade. Do not try to pick the bottom the move should be a big one.\n\n&nbsp;\n<p align=\"center\"><b>TRADE IDEA:\n</b><b>USD/JPY\n</b><b>Long at: 95.00 or thereabouts\n</b><b>Stop Loss: 94.50\n</b><b>Initial Target: 98.50</b></p>\n&nbsp;\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">3. MY CURRENT LIVE TRADES:</span></b>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>1.EUR/CAD\n</b><b>Long\n</b><b>Yesterday’s Closing Position 1.4416\n</b><b>Entry / Cost Average: 1.4310\n</b><b>Position Size: 20%\n</b><b>Stop Loss: 1.4364 (54 pips protected profits)\n</b><b>Target / Limit: 1.4800\n</b><b>Present Position: + 106 pips</b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>2.USD/CAD\n</b><b>Long\n</b><b>Yesterday’s Closing Position 1.0445\n</b><b>Entry / Cost Average: 1.0416\n</b><b>Position Size: 20%\n</b><b>Stop Loss: 1.0330\n</b><b>Target / Limit: 1.0850\n</b><b>Present Position: + 29 pips</b><b> </b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>3.NZD/USD\n</b><b>Short\n</b><b>Yesterday’s Closing Position 0.8276\n</b><b>Entry / Cost Average: 0.8333\n</b><b>Position Size: 20%\n</b><b>Stop Loss: 0.8365\n</b><b>Target / Limit: 0.8000\n</b><b>Present Position: + 49 pips</b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>4.GBP/CAD\n</b><b>Long\n</b><b>Yesterday’s Closing Position 1.6884\n</b><b>Entry / Cost Average: 1.6823\n</b><b>Position Size: 20%\n</b><b>Stop Loss: 1.6850 (27 pips protected profits)\n</b><b>Target / Limit: 1.8125\n</b><b>Present Position: + 61 pips</b></p>\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">4. OTHER POTENTIAL TRADES THAT ARE ON MY RADAR:</span></b>\n\nCommodity currencies are reacting differently and there are signs of divergences in the market. The Antipodean cross-rates, “High Beta” currencies interest me.\n\nHere is my plan / strategy: -\n\nThe currency pairs involved in my plan are: - EUR/AUD, GBP/AUD, EUR/NZD, GBP/NZD and AUD/USD. With the exception of the AUD/USD these pairs are heavily influenced by the “risk-on” “risk off” behavior of the market, they are less liquid than the USD majors so you must exercise caution when placing trades. Assess your risk; know your limits before entering a trade.\n\nShould we see a fall in equities these pairs will move very quickly to the upside. Right now they are moving upwards based primarily on downward moves in the AUD/USD and NZD/USD.\n\nI will want to enter on pullbacks. Below I list the entry levels that I will be entering in my brokers account for limit orders over the next 48 hours. I will tweet limits and stops as/if the trades trigger.\n\n&nbsp;\n<p align=\"center\"><b>EUR/AUD – long at 1.4360</b><b> </b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>GBP/AUD – long at 1.6830</b><b> </b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>EUR/NZD – long at 1.6600</b><b> </b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>GBP/NZD – long at 1.9450</b><b> </b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>AUD/USD – short at 0.9640</b></p>\n<b> </b><b> </b>\n\nThe EUR/GBP is also interesting me. But my trade is quite some way away at the moment. I list it below, and I have a stop order placed with my broker already. This is a trade that may never initiate. But as the James Bond movie title says…”Never Say never”.\n<p align=\"center\"><b>EUR/GBP\n</b><b>Short at: 0.8625\n</b><b>Stop Loss: 0.8675\n</b><b>Initial Target: 0.8280</b></p>\nOne other trade that interests me is the USD/CHF. I may have missed the trade but should the EUR/USD rally to 1.3900-1.4000 I should get a second chance to enter this set up.<b> </b>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>USD/CHF\n</b><b>Long at: 0.8865\n</b><b>Stop Loss: 0.8825\n</b><b>Initial Target: 0.9000</b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b> </b><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b></p>\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">5. LOOKING FORWARD…THE KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS:</span></b>\n\n<b>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3802.</b> This pair ended the week with a very bullish close above 1.3800.  It looks like this pair is eventually going to test 1.3900 and above. I thought that NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls) last week would have been the catalyst but that did not happen.  Initially the range I would say that needs to be broken is 1.3710 to 1.3840. This will not only confirm direction but once this range is taken out the whole market may “free” up.\n\n<b>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.6161. </b>Cable has under-performed this week. The EUR/USD moved up 150+ pips in the week and GBP/USD about 20 pips. It is strange considering economic data from the Eurozone has been weak and the UK data stronger. This worries me from my associated GBP related trade GBP/CAD and it adds another layer of thought to whether I trade the GBP/AUD and GBP/NZD. Without doubt 1.6260 needs to be taken out on the upside. Closing 100 lower than this level when the EUR/USD has been in rally mode makes me think….maybe GBP/USD down side pressure is on the horizon. The range that I think defines bullish / bearish sentiment on cable is 1.6100 to 1.6260.\n\n<b>AUD/USD: Closing Price 0.9581</b>.  Commodity currencies led by the AUD are diverging. The AUD/USD is over 100 pips up than last weeks close. I want a pullback so I can enter short. My problem is that if equities roll over next week I may not get the chance and I do not chase trades. The overnight low Thursday/Friday was 0.9572. Yesterday’s close was pretty much at the lows. I feel that sentiment is going bearish on this pair. For sentiment to turn bullish once again I think that a break above 0.9650 is required. If we break below 0.9550 I think we head lower again towards 0.9250.\n\n<b>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8276</b>. Over 200 pips lower in the week for this pair. The Chinese bank write-off news release in the week really hit this pair the hardest. Despite the RBNZ governor Wheeler, stating that interest rate hikes are going to be required, he has put these off until the second quarter 2014 if it’s to happen. He has another statement this week and this will be a good news event to follow. Fundamentally, the Kiwi dollar, in my opinion, is grossly over-valued. The New Zealand economy albeit showing signs of over-heating in major cities like Auckland and Christchurch is somewhat fragile in other places and the medicine that the RBNZ wants to deliver is not that cut and dried.  We have an excellent trading range that if broken could set up a great momentum trade on the back of the RBNZ announcement on Wednesday. The trading range I am looking at is 0.8220 to 0.8350.\n\n<b>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.0445. </b>The loonie…..the currency that I live with everyday and hate to trade. This week it has provided the basis of some great profitable trades. To make matters even better, the BOC finally said what most Canadians at least knew for past three months, that is that there should be no more monetary or major government policy changes here in Canada. We have to wait for the U.S. to get its house in order. Well frankly, the BOC didn’t actually say that…but…that’s what they would have said<b> </b>were we not in a<b> </b>politically correct society.<b> </b>This pair could go substantially higher for months to come, it has been range bound for several months already. The next resistance is 1.0480 then it’s 1.0575. Support is good at 1.0420 and beneath there 1.0330.\n\n<b>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.8923. </b>This pair now has my attention. I have a limit order placed with my broker. The range I see is 0.8890 to 0.9000 in the short term. Obviously, moves in the EUR/USD will affect this pair directly as it’s inverse relationship is still intact for now. Huge movements in Gold or U.S. Bonds could affect this relationship with the single currency so bear this in mind if trading this pair.\n\n<b>USD/JPY: Closing Price 97.41. </b>The JPY continues to strengthen despite all the QE talk and equities in the U.S. grinding higher.  I have written at length about this pair earlier in the blog. The support and resistance levels are 96.80 to 98.30. A break of this range will direct the markets.\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b>\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">6. MAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:</span></b>\n\nSUNDAY: N/A\n\nMONDAY: N/A\n\nTUESDAY: USD – Core Retails Sales, PPi and Retail Sales.\n\nWEDNESDAY: USD – ADP Non Farm Employment Change and Core CPi m/m.\nWEDNESDAY: USD - FOMC Statement.\nWEDNESDAY: NZD – Official Cash Rate and RBNZ Rate Statement.\nWEDNESDAY: JPY – Monetary Policy Statement.\n\nTHURSDAY: JPY – BOJ Press Conference\nTHURSDAY: CAD – GDP m/m\nTHURSDAY: AUD – PPI\nTHURSDAY: CNY – Manufacturing PMi\n\nFRIDAY: USD – ISM Manufacturing PMi\nFRIDAY: GBP – Manufacturing PMi\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">7. FINAL THOUGHTS:</span></b>\n\nLots of news items during this next week that will/ should be market movers. I have suggested many trade set-ups this week. It goes without saying, but, I will say it anyway my trade ideas can be thrown a curve ball quite easily with all these news items.\n\nTherefore, whilst I believe my set ups are directionally sound, if trading these, I am suggesting you trade very small lot sizes until the trades are established and then ease yourself in with an increased trade size. Move stops to protect profits. It is NOT chicken to do this. Trading is about making $$$ and protecting your capital. It’s not about being a gambler. You are a risk assessor. Make certain that you have stops in mind when you place your trade to know exactly what your risk is.\n\nAs always, trade mean and trade lean inside the parameters of your trading plan.\n\nI will update in the middle of the week with the “Midweek Fx Fix”, either Tuesday evening in the Asian or Wednesday morning in the North American session.\n\nGood luck and take care.\n\nScott Pickering\n\nThe Pip Accumulator\nSaturday October 26th 2013\n\nFOLLOW ME AT:\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\n\n&nbsp;','THE JPY WILL SOON DICTATE THE MARKET DIRECTION','','publish','open','closed','','jpy-will-soon-dictate-market-direction','','','2013-10-26 11:54:10','2013-10-26 16:54:10','',0,'http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/?p=2039',0,'post','',1),(2034,1,'2013-10-23 08:45:31','2013-10-23 13:45:31','<b>1.<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> INTRODUCTION:</span></b>\n\nSince last weekends “Weekly Fx Drive-Thru”, I am pleased to announce that I have re-commenced trading again...the boy is back!!\n\nThe China bank debt write-off news overnight (3 times greater than originally thought), has really pulled the rug from under the commodity currencies. Prior to this news, I was in the camp that believed that as long as U.S. equities were grinding higher, or, consolidating, the AUD/USD, NZD/USD and USD/CAD would remain well supported. Following the Chinese news, I am now of the opinion the trade is to sell into any rallies (AUD &amp; NZD) or pullbacks (CAD). At the time of writing this blog (Wednesday morning EDT), these rallies or pullbacks so far have been very shallow.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">2. EXISTING LIVE TRADES:</span></b>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>EUR/CAD</strong>\n<strong>Long</strong>\n<strong>Position Size: 20%</strong>\n<strong>Entry / Cost Average: 1.4081</strong>\n<strong>Stop Loss: 1.4140 (trade now protected with profits)</strong>\n<strong>Limit / Take Profit: 1.4800</strong>\n<strong>Present Position: + 116 pips</strong></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>GBP/NZD</strong>\n<strong>Long\nPosition Size: 20%</strong>\n<strong>Entry / Cost Average: 1.9125</strong>\n<strong>Stop Loss: 1.9191 (trade now protected with profits)</strong>\n<strong>Limit / Take Profit: 1.9400, then 1.9760.</strong>\n<strong>Present Position: +135 pips</strong></p>\n&nbsp;\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">3. POTENTIAL TRADES ON MY RADAR:</span></b>\n\nI am looking to short the NZD/USD, AUD/USD and go long the USD/CAD. I am waiting for rallies or pullbacks to specific levels to achieve my goal entries.\n\nThe following limit orders are already in with my brokers to enter if the following entry levels are achieved.\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>1. AUD/USD</strong>\n<strong>Enter short at 0.9660</strong>\n<strong>Stop at 0.9710</strong>\n<strong>Initial target 0.9450</strong></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>2. NZD/USD</strong>\n<strong>Enter short at 0.8420</strong>\n<strong>Stop at 0.8540</strong>\n<strong>Initial target 0.8000</strong></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>3. USD/CAD</strong>\n<strong>Enter long at 1.0270</strong>\n<strong>Stop at 1.0230</strong>\n<strong>Initial target 1.0420</strong></p>\nIn addition, earlier this morning (Wednesday), I closed my GBP/CAD long for +25 pips. I did this because, I was spooked by the heavy overnight trading of the GBP/USD, and the fact, that the GBP/USD failed at 1.6260 twice to form a double top. Whilst I am still live with the GBP/NZD I have a protected profit position. The reason I closed the CAD cross was simply on the basis that this pair was pulling back and eroding my profitable position more strongly than the NZD cross.\n\nI am looking to re-enter the GBP/CAD long, and I will re-tweet when I think it is good from my trading perspective to do so.\n\nI missed the EUR/AUD and EUR/NZD overnight. So I need to gauge the market before looking at these pairs to trade long, obviously, I am looking for pullbacks.\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>EUR/NZD: enter long around 1.6380 if I can get it!</strong>\n<strong>EUR/AUD: enter long around 1.4250 looks like a reasonable area if it pulls back.</strong></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">The GBP/AUD, suffers from my same thoughts as the GBP/CAD and GBP/NZD. If I decide enter and go long I will tweet.  The level I am looking at the moment is in the region of 1.6730.</p>\nOne piece of data to note and to bear in mind, pullbacks in the EUR/USD have not been as strong the GBP/USD. Should the EUR/USD make a run for 1.3800, it should drag the GBP/USD with it and it may finally breakthrough 1.6260. At this point my thoughts on the GBP crosses would change.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">4. FINAL THOUGHTS:</span></b>\n\nAlways be aware, just because equities in the Asian and European sessions have sold off, it does not mean that the U.S. session will follow suit. U.S. equities have the habit of shrugging off bad news and continue to move higher.\n\nTrade with this in mind and trade carefully.\n\nGood luck and take care.\n\nScott Pickering\nThe Pip Accumulator\nWednesday October 23rd 2013\n\nFOLLOW ME AT:\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\n\n&nbsp;','THE MIDWEEK FX FIX #5 (23.10.2013)','','publish','open','closed','','midweek-fx-fix-5-23-10-2013','','','2013-10-23 08:45:31','2013-10-23 13:45:31','',0,'http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/?p=2034',0,'post','',0),(2018,1,'2013-10-16 09:27:55','2013-10-16 14:27:55','<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">1. INTRODUCTION:</span></b>\n\nAs I wrote in the Weekly Fx Drive-Thru last weekend, I am sitting in cash waiting for the Washington DC politicians to stop the nonsense agree to stop the nonsense and settle.\n\nThe markets have got increasingly twitchy as I predicted the closer we get to the debt limit deadline. I just cannot see why you would want to put yourself through trading this chop fest, as capital preservation is critical. As I have said many times before, trading is hard enough without adding layers of unnecessary stress\n\nHaving written that, I am still looking around at the markets and I do have a few trade ideas, but in reality, I need the dust to settle on a resolution in Washington first. Even then, it has to be a settlement not a kicking the can down the road deal, which, is looking like what is being offered at the moment.\n\nThe one subject that I think that is definitely off the table until possibly the second quarter of 2014 is “Tapering”. It is just not conceivable in my mind that the FED would start this given all the issues in Washington.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">2. EXISTING LIVE TRADES:</span></b>\n\nI have none at this time.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">3. POTENTIAL TRADES ON MY RADAR:</span></b>\n\nMy favourite trading pairs are based around the AUD and NZD. I used to say the CAD was also a favoured pair, but I have had a lot of bad luck recently with the CAD, even though I use this pair a leading indicator. The CAD has therefore been relegated to division two as a punishment!!\n\nI am at the moment looking at a continued “Chop Fest” with any pair that involves the USD, so I am looking at cross-rates that may offer reasonable trades.\n\nAs you should be aware, trading cross-rates involves usually a wider pip spread for entry and because they are not as liquid moves can be very wild and strong. The ATR (Average True Range) of cross-rates can be very large in comparison to the majors. Therefore, when looking to place trades with cross-rates you need to exercise caution. Trade smaller positions with wider stops to allow for the wider than usual volatile moves. Once you grab all of this and keep these factors in mind, then you are good to go!\n\nI tweeted yesterday along the lines of maybe these Cross-rate pairs have been showing false bottoms and that a reversal could be in play. Here are the levels in the cross-rate pairs that interest me. These are early days, but the levels below are what are on my radar.\n\n<b>EUR/AUD:\n</b>I am looking to enter long this pair if I see it break above 1.4260.\n\n<b>EUR/NZD:\n</b>I think that the level of 1.6155 looks interesting to establish a small long position<b>.</b>\n\n<b>GBP/NZD:\n</b>On the 4-hour chart, there is a nice descending wedge. Looking at the last move 1.8970 to 1.9741. If we clear 1.9100 on the way back, a move to 1.9260 maybe even 1.9400 could be in play.\n\n&nbsp;\n\nI am also looking at: -\n\n<b>EUR/GBP:\n</b>Looking to short at about 0.8470 looking for a move to 0.8400. I am thinking close stops just above 0.8520.\n\nWith regards to the USD majors, I do think that we will spike on the news of a settlement. But my gut feeling, and I will need confirmation of such a move is that we will “sell” the news after the spike.\n\n&nbsp;\n\nWith this in mind, here are my thoughts on the AUD, NZD and CAD pairs with the USD. If I do take these trades, my position sizes will be small until I see confirmation of the move in my direction.\n\n<b>AUD/USD:\n</b>This pair looks like it wants to break higher although 0.9530 to 0.9550 is holding it. A short at 0.9550-0.9600 with a 50-pip stop may be the trade. There could be a great risk/reward trade if the market plays the way I think it might.\n\n<b>NZD/USD:\n</b>I am going to stay away from this pair, as it is acting very strong at the moment and I can only see a short around 0.8500, but even then sentiment has changed with the outlook of the Kiwi.\n\n<b>USD/CAD:\n</b>I want to enter long at 1.0275-1.0300. We will hopefully see a pullback and this level offers a great risk reward.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">4. FINAL THOUGHTS:</span></b>\n\nTrade carefully, if you feel that you must be in trades at the moment. Do not get suckered into trades, as there will be false breakouts and breakdowns.\n\nGood luck and take care.\n\n&nbsp;\n\nScott Pickering\nThe Pip Accumulator\nWednesday October 16th 2013\n\nFOLLOW ME AT:\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\n\n&nbsp;','THE MIDWEEK FX FIX #4 (16.10.2013)','','publish','open','closed','','midweek-fx-fix-4-16-10-2013','','','2013-10-16 09:27:55','2013-10-16 14:27:55','',0,'http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/?p=2018',0,'post','',0),(2020,1,'2013-10-19 11:43:15','2013-10-19 16:43:15','<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">1.</span><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> INTRODUCTION:</span></b>\n\nWhat a week that was…the lunatics in the asylum have agreed a short-term solution to re-open the U.S. government and lift the debt ceiling. The interim solution gives us all a 90-day or so break from the continuing theatrics until the first of the delayed deadlines re-emerges.\n\nFrom a trading perspective, I have simply not been involved, as I have basically remained on the sidelines in cash $$$. So, you could take either of the following views; firstly, that I have been either a goody two-shoes by staying on the side ignoring the daily chop fest, or, secondly, I am a chicken not to get involved. In my defence, not that I think I need one, but if I did, I have said this on many, many occasions in the past. Trading is hard enough at the best of times. Why take on additional stress, if you know that the market is in a period of uncertainty and that increased volatility will be prevalent.\n\nMoving on, over the past 48 hours or so I have been scouting around charts looking for possible entry levels across not just the U.S. majors but also some of the commodity cross-rate pairs.\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">2. THE VIEW FROM MY TRADING DESK:</span></b>\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">THE USD IS UNDER PRESSURE AND I BELIEVE I HAVE A COUPLE OF GREAT TRADE SET UPS</span></b></p>\nLast Wednesday evening / Thursday after the votes were cast in Washington the USD took an initial hit as predicted. But the buy on the rumour sell on the news move that looked to be in the making was stopped dead in its tracks. The Chinese rating agency, Dagong Global, downgraded the U.S. Sovereign Debt to A- from A. This action by a ratings agency in the country, which is and has been for sometime the largest holder of U.S. debt, did not go unnoticed in the Fx markets. It was largely ignored by media such as CNBC and CNN, who spent the most of Thursday interviewing the little tin Gods from the hill.\n\nThe focus of U.S. media was as always inwards, looking for “pats on the back”. Frankly, I would be s**t scared of what the International community thinks for once with regards to how the alleged “greatest country on earth” could be hijacked by about 40 or so politicians out of touch with the hard facts of living.\n\nI see continued USD weakness, emanating from a number of fronts.\n<ol>\n	<li>The ratings agencies downgrade. Not just the Chinese agency down grade but also the S&amp;P negative outlook. Moody’s claims no adjustment for 2 years. Quite frankly how an agency can say this beggars belief. Do they not have memories from 2008? Quite unbelievable and totally irresponsible.</li>\n	<li>The fact that tapering now looks to be so far in the distance, I am thinking it will take a miracle if it were to happen in the first half of 2014. There is no way the FED can rock the boat. We have continued uncertainty, as the peace will only last about 90 days before the circus comes back to town. This will keep the FED intervening buying bonds etc.</li>\n	<li>Who knows exactly what damage  the Government shutdown caused economically to the U.S. There are figures being quoted by some economists stating that 0.6% off GDP for Q4 2013. This type of talk will keep the USD weak. The economic data that was not published during the shutdown starts to be released this week, but I do not think that we can trust the data 100% and we will require a couple of months to get back into the routine. For this reason this will add uncertainty in my opinion and uncertainty usually manifests itself as sell the USD.</li>\n</ol>\nMy two USD trades are short the USD and involve the EUR/USD and the GBP/USD.\n\nFirstly, the EUR/USD: This pair has defied all the critics and even gravity over the past couple of years. Despite continued calls, many of them from myself that the EUR/USD should be trading nearer to parity. It has flirted with sub 1.2000 in its darkest hours but bounced back into the 1.30’s.\n\nThe statements that the U.S. economy is out of the woods, mean little to most people given the events of the past two/three weeks. The resilience of the single currency has therefore got to be noticed and applauded. Whilst the strengthening of the Euro is bad news for European exporters, I see it winning out in the currency games against the U.S. in the short to medium term of the next 3-6 months.\n\nOn the Monthly chart below, you can see that whilst we are still in a massive downtrend move, the EUR/USD can pull higher quite some way without touching the down sloping trend lines.\n<p align=\"center\"><a href=\"http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/EURUSD-MONTHLY-19102013.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-2026\" alt=\"EURUSD MONTHLY 19102013\" src=\"http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/EURUSD-MONTHLY-19102013-1024x516.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"516\" /></a></p>\nWith continued USD weakness there should at least be a test of the 50% retracement of the last big move of 1.6007 to 1.1659, which comes in around 1.3881. Trend line resistance enters around 1.4000. This is where I see a test in a couple of months or so.\n\n&nbsp;\n<p align=\"center\"><b>TRADE IDEA:\n</b><b>EUR/USD\n</b><b>Long at: 1.3625\n</b><b>Stop Loss: 1.3525\n</b><b>Initial Target: 1.3880</b></p>\nSecondly, GBP/USD: Cable has been extremely strong of late as a result of continuing good economic data from the UK. Whilst we had a big rejection last week just below 1.6200, if momentum surpasses this figure in the next few days, there could be a huge move in the pipeline.\n\nFrom the chart below, the initial key level for me after breaking 1.6260 is 1.6385 the 38% retracement of the large downside move from 2.1125 to 1.3484. I am also interested in the 100% retracement of the last big move that can be seen on the second Fibonacci chart at 1.6735.\n<p align=\"center\"><b><a href=\"http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/GBPUSD-MONTHLY-19102013.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-2027\" alt=\"GBPUSD MONTHLY 19102013\" src=\"http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/GBPUSD-MONTHLY-19102013-1024x516.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"516\" /></a></b></p>\n&nbsp;\n<p align=\"center\"><b>TRADE IDEA:\n</b><b>GBP/USD\n</b><b>Long at: 1.6120\n</b><b>Stop Loss: 1.6020\n</b><b>Initial Target: 1.6730</b></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\" align=\"center\">Do not expect these moves detailed above to happen overnight. There will be pushes and pulls in both pairs in both directions, but I am confident that the underlying move will be short the USD.</p>\nYou will notice that both of the above trade ideas are based upon a pullback entry. There will be some profit taking first from traders who have followed these pairs higher. In addition, there will be a period of consolidation for a few days at least. As you aware, trend line break outs need to be tested and verified before momentum moves are resumed.\n\nI will not chase trades…\n\nI need to grab an entry that offers a better risk.<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">\n</span></b>\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">3. MY CURRENT LIVE TRADES:</span></b>\n\nI am currently not in any live trades.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">4. POTENTIAL TRADES ON MY RADAR:</span></b>\n\nHere are my plans and strategy: -\n\nOver the past two weeks or so I have been writing and tweeting about the commodity cross-rate pairs quite a lot; EUR/AUD, GBP/AUD, EUR/NZD, GBP/NZD, EUR/CAD and GBP/CAD. Prior to the shutdown, I had a reasonable run with these pairs and I think that further opportunities lie ahead. These pairs are heavily influenced by the “risk-on” “risk off” behavior of the market, they are less liquid than the USD majors so you must exercise caution when placing trades. Assess your risk; know your limits before entering a trade.\n\nThe CAD has not been strengthening or weakening much over the past few weeks. It has been trading in a range of 1.0260 to 1.0420. This has kept the cross pairs of the EUR/CAD and GBP/CAD well bid. The EUR/CAD is close to an annual breakout level of 1.4372, and the GBP/CAD is on the cusp of a major move. At the same time given that the USD/CAD has held up so well I am bullish on this pair, but, at the same time, I am asking “Do I really want to buy the USD?”\n\nBelow, I show charts on the EUR/CAD and GBP/CAD showing the levels that interest me plus my target entries, stops and limit objectives should these trades activate. For the three of the CAD trades listed, I have corresponding buy orders with my broker. <b> </b>\n<p align=\"center\"><b> </b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b><a href=\"http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/EURCAD-MONTHLY-19102013.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-2023\" alt=\"EURCAD MONTHLY 19102013\" src=\"http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/EURCAD-MONTHLY-19102013-1024x516.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"516\" /></a></b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b> <a href=\"http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/GBPCAD-MONTHLY-19102013.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-2024\" alt=\"GBPCAD MONTHLY 19102013\" src=\"http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/GBPCAD-MONTHLY-19102013-1024x516.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"516\" /></a></b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b></b><b> </b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>USD/CAD\n</b><b>Long at: 1.0260\n</b><b>Stop Loss: 1.0180\n</b><b>Initial Target: 1.0680</b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b> </b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>EUR/CAD\n</b><b>Long at: 1.3950\n</b><b>Stop Loss: 1.3840\nInitial Target: 1.4800</b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b> </b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>GBP/USD\n</b><b>Long at: 1.6440\n</b><b>Stop Loss: 1.6320\n</b><b>Initial Target: 1.8165</b><b> </b></p>\nThe EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD, I am watching but not as ready to make the plunge yet. I am waiting for my price entries to trigger and I need reasonable pullbacks. If the pullbacks do not happen, I will not chase, but re-assess the trade opportunity. Additionally, the price action in equities needs to be confirmed for me to trade these pairs. I am however, tracking the GBP/NZD, and I do see a set up that interests me with this pair.\n\nThe weekly chart below, whilst it shows three down weeks in the past three weeks,, there has been a recovery in place this past week and I am thinking along the following lines. Longer term, I still have my 2013/14 super trade in mind. A break of 2.0000 sets up a possible move to 2.1000 and well beyond even 2.2500.\n<p align=\"center\"><b> </b><b> <a href=\"http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/GBPNZD-WEEKLY-CHART-19102013.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-2025\" alt=\"GBPNZD WEEKLY CHART 19102013\" src=\"http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/GBPNZD-WEEKLY-CHART-19102013-1024x516.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"516\" /></a></b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b> </b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>GBP/NZD\n</b><b>Long at: 1.9125\n</b><b>Stop Loss: 1.8950\n</b><b>Initial Target: 1.9400</b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b></b><b></b><b> </b></p>\nThe EUR/GBP is also interesting me. A break below 0.8425 should trigger stops and set up a move lower. If you track the daily chart, we had a sell-off, then a reversal back to the 38.2% Fibonacci level. Then we are selling off again. In my opinion a move below 0.8400 sets up a move to 0.8000 in the very long term\n<p align=\"center\"><b> </b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>EUR/GBP\n</b><b>Short at: 0.8425\n</b><b>Stop Loss: 0.8485\n</b><b>Initial Target: 0.8280</b><b> </b></p>\nWith regards to the AUD/USD and NZD/USD. I think that there are levels that will be too much for me to resist a short trade at. They are a long, long way from where these pairs trade at the moment. Any trades, would be very small positions with very long objectives. These set ups are placed with my broker, but I doubt that they will initiate for weeks…maybe not at all.\n\nI have been taking a whipping on these pairs of late in the daily chop fest trying to top pick a level. With equities driving higher, I think these pairs will stay supported most of the time and continue to push higher.\n<p align=\"center\"><b>AUD/USD\n</b><b>Short at: 0.9835\n</b><b>Stop Loss: 0.9920\n</b><b>Initial Target: 0.9400</b><b> </b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>NZD/USD\n</b><b>Short at: 0.8680\n</b><b>Stop Loss: 0.8850\n</b><b>Initial Target: 0.8000</b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b></p>\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">5. LOOKING FORWARD…THE KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS:</span></b>\n\n<b>EUR/USD: </b>Closing Price 1.3685. This pair closed very close to its highs of the week, which were at 1.3704. This was a bullish end to the week and quite frankly it looks like the USD could continue to get smashed next week. Non-Farm payrolls delayed from last month will be released on Tuesday. Whilst it is difficult to analyse too much on this data, it will be a market mover. This could be the news that drives the EUR/USD towards 1.4000.  Support for the EUR/USD will be good around 1.3625 and then again 1.3570.\n\n<b>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.6143. </b>In the past week this pair has moved higher by about 200 pips. Data from the UK continues to improve and the pair looks bullish. We are consolidating its move higher at the moment. 1.6200 has been a tough nut to crack on the move higher. I do feel that if 1.6200 and then 1.6260 are taken as resistance levels, it could spark a move towards 1.6735 and possibly beyond. It all depends on the USD. 1.6120 and then 1.6000 offer good support should this pair pullback.\n\n<b>AUD/USD: Closing Price 0.9674</b>. This pair was the biggest gainer against the USD this past 7 days. As long as equities are supported and continue to drive higher, the AUD will not turn lower. The next level of resistance is 0.9750. Support is good at 0.9585 and we will need to break lower than this level for the pair to turn bearish.\n\n<b>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8495</b>.  Resistance at 0.8520 has kept this pair capped for the past few days. Any move above 0.8550 and I think we could squeeze very quickly. Support is good at 0.8440 and then 0.8380.\n\n<b>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.0285.  </b>This pair has held up very well during the last sessions in which the USD was being sold quite aggressively. Support is very good at 1.0260-1.0270. Resistance is very good at 1.0360 then 1.0420.\n\n<b>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.9015. </b>0.8980 held fantastically well as support last week. I see a range from 0.8980 to 0.9090 that needs to be broken.\n\n<b>USD/JPY: Closing Price 97.73. </b>This pair is hard for me to follow. The JPY is strengthening causing this pair to move lower. On the other hand equities continue to move up and at some point the JPY will play catch up. I am sidelined with this pair at the moment. The range that I see on the charts is 97.70 to 98.30.\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b>\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">6. MAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:</span></b>\n\nSUNDAY: N/A\n\nMONDAY: USD – Existing Home Sales.\n\nTUESDAY: CAD – Core Retail Sales.\nTUESDAY: USD – Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Rate.\nTUESDAY: AUD – CPi.\n\nWEDNESDAY: CAD – BOC Rate Statement and Press Conference.\nWEDNESDAY: NZD – Trade Balance.\nWEDNESDAY: CNY – HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMi.\n\nTHURSDAY: EUR – French and German Flash Manufacturing PMi.\nTHURSDAY: USD – New Home Sales.\nTHURSDAY: GBP – Carney speaks………..\n\nFRIDAY: EUR – German IFO Business Climate.\nFRIDAY: GBP – Preliminary GDP.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">7. FINAL THOUGHTS:</span></b>\n\nFor those of you who are news junkies, over the next few weeks, the missing data from the U.S. shutdown should be hitting us hard and fast. A note of caution, old data and new data will sometimes overlap and cause uncertainty, which will increase market volatility.\n\nAs always, trade mean and trade lean inside the parameters of your trading plan.\n\nI will update in the middle of the week with the Midweek Fx Fix, either Tuesday evening in Asia or Wednesday morning in the North American session.\n\nGood luck and take care.\n\n&nbsp;\n\nScott Pickering\nThe Pip Accumulator\nSaturday October 19th 2013\n\nFOLLOW ME AT:\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\n\n&nbsp;','COULD IT NOW BE TIME TO SHORT THE USD AND MAKE SOME REAL MONEY?','','publish','open','closed','','now-time-short-usd-make-real-money','','','2013-10-19 11:43:15','2013-10-19 16:43:15','',0,'http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/?p=2020',0,'post','',0),(2005,1,'2013-10-05 10:43:10','2013-10-05 15:43:10','<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">1. INTRODUCTION:</span></b>\n\nI spent most of this past week in cash. I took a very cautious approach ahead of the RBA interest rate announcement and press release, the ADP employment data and the ECB press conference by closing all trades.\n\nI have entered a couple of very small trades, establishing my position on the basis that if I am correct I will get a strong continuing move in my trade direction. There are several factors that could spin these trades the wrong way from my perspective, so I am trading with very small lot sizes just 40% of the maximum I would trade with in accordance with my trading plan. The details of these trades are noted later in this blog.\n\nThe dysfunctional and quite pathetic U.S. political party squabble continues. The U.S. government is still in shutdown and the brinkmanship of those involved really makes the so-called leader of the “free-world’ a laughing stock. Reading around, a common thread is along the lines of “The USA interferes in other countries politics and tells them loudly how good the U.S. systems are, and that their systems should reflect how good the U.S. systems are”. Well I think that ship has sailed and quite frankly, the U.S. politicians are a bloody disgrace in my opinion.\n\nPersonally, I am finding it hard to trade at the moment. The uncertainty of how or when the U.S. politicians are going settle the various disputes surrounding the close down of the government, and the government debt ceiling, plus the longer it goes on before the dispute is sorted out makes it harder to place trades. Do not forget it’s hard enough trading as it is. This uncertainty just adds to the daily pressure. I think that in the very short-term, the USD will strengthen, pending congress sorting out all the issues. However, after a compromise agreement is made, I am still not sure after an initial spike weaker, whether we see renewed USD strength. I still haven’t mentioned tapering yet, and how Ben Bernanke and the FED will react.\n\nThe upshot is, I am trading so nimbly right now pending a resolution…. I am thinking of changing my middle names going to “Super cautious” and my twitter handle to @supercautioustrader.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">2. THE VIEW FROM MY TRADING DESK:</span></b>\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">ARE THE MARKETS COMPLACENT… NOT JUST ON THE U.S. SHUTDOWN BUT ALSO ON EUROPEAN ISSUES?</span></b></p>\nI am a little perplexed with the market’s reaction to recent events, in particular to U.S. government shutdown. In making that statement I am fully aware that crazy as it sounds this is not the first time that the U.S. government has been forced to close it’s doors and basically stop all non-essential payments amongst other things. I believe it’s at least the 17<sup>th</sup> occasion that the government has been shutdown. Recent times were in the Carter and Reagan administrations to name but two.\n\nThe issue I have is that the U.S. economy is so fragile. The economic recovery could at best be described as hit and miss. Good old Ben, at the last FOMC hit the nail once again dead centre, when he said that there was too much uncertainty in matters with Washington that lay ahead. Talk about a brilliantly understated assessment. What he really meant to say, if I could use his approach a little differently was: -\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<i>“Look lads, you know as well as I do those f**king numpties up on the hill are acting like schoolgirls. I have seen better-organized chickens running around farm-yards with their heads cut off. Whilst I have breath in my body, there is no way on this planet I am going to let those f**king idiots undue in 5 minutes what I have been working on for the past 5 years. End of story, that’s it in a nutshell…now…any questions”</i>\n\n&nbsp;\n\nObviously, he couldn’t say it that way, but, in my own mind, I am pretty certain that he may have wanted to.\n\nThe FED’s key measurements of inflation and unemployment were starting to bear fruit according to the economic data releases that were provided. Frankly, I think that the true unemployment rate and numbers are hugely under played and if the accurate numbers of unemployed looking for jobs plus the people who no longer register who have given up were added together, the U.S. economy would fall back into recession at a stroke.\n\nThe housing market is patchy at best, and, as I have consistently said over and over sooooooo many times, every economy needs a good, solid vibrant housing market to see economic growth, combined with good consumer spending and falling unemployment to name but three areas. The U.S. does NOT have this.\n\nTherefore, quite unbelievably, Republicans and Democrats hold the country to ransom divided on party political lines. There is no fear of “Tea Party” members ever losing their seats, as they are in GOP strongholds, so they will dig their heels in to the bitter end. The losers are the ordinary people that they allegedly represent, and, they may through negligence send the U.S. economy backwards. Bernanke must have this fear on his radar 24/7\n\nAdd to this the European numpties.\n\nThankfully, the self-proclaimed “Sex God” from Italy backed down. We may have seen the last of Berlusconi as a powerhouse in Italian politics, but think on…write that guy off at your peril. He has more lives that a tomcat. Whilst we have had a vote of confidence succeed in the Italian parliament, note that, the Italians hate the direct interference in the running of their country (who wouldn’t), by the Germans. There is a backlash looming.\n\nSpain has gone a little quiet of late, but economically it is still on its knees. Tourism is down, prices in the Costa’s (Beach vacation resorts) are up. Housing defaults are still in record positions and mortgage arrears high. I still believe that the true position has yet to be aired. This may be the reason that Rahoy (Spanish Prime Minister) has not yet looked for a bailout.\n\nPortugal, Greece and Cyprus are still at the precipice.\n\nMario Draghi, president of the ECB (European Central Bank) knows this and has another LTRO, Long Term Financing Operation, better known as QE (Quantitative Easing) ready to launch into the Eurozone. All is not well.\n\nHow do the equities markets react? Well they are not selling off as I thought they might have done. There may have been the odd flutter based mainly upon the odd sound-byte but no pullbacks of 10% or more. No correction to a 20% pullback is even discussed.\n\nWhat would happen if the U.S. politicians take their squabbles all the way to the wire and the U.S. is in a position where there is a real risk of a default?\n\nThe reaction around the world if taken this far could send shock waves throughout all areas of the globe. This in itself could be enough to trigger a Eurozone LTRO. That would send the Eurozone into a deeper recession than the one the area is trying to escape right now.\n\nCan you imagine if the USD sold off, what effect that would have on Japan and Switzerland? Japan in particular, with Abe and Kuroda spending zillions of Yen on QE to jolt the Japanese economy. The USD/JPY could be back at 80.00 in a blink of an eye. Gold would rally like crazy. The USD/CHF would drop like a lead balloon towards 0.7500/0.8000.\n\nThe world markets are so interlinked today, that the old comment of: -\n\n<i>“If the U.S. sneezes…. Europe catches a cold”</i>\n\nWell, it isn’t just Europe anymore, it’s everywhere catches a cold.\n\nIt’s all about seeing the bigger picture. Having watched some of the U.S. politicians in action recently, they are not the brightest buttons in the shop. They lack the big picture for the public office position they hold. If they couldn’t give a rats a** about the American people they represent, there is bugger all chance that they give a rats a** about the effect their actions could have on the world economic situation\n\nWe have a game of dominoes and the players have no idea of what is called “The Domino Effect”.\n\nFor this reason, and there is no better reason, I suggest that from a trading perspective, trade away from the USD, or, take a little holiday from trading and wait until the dust settles. Preserving your capital is what trading is all about. Trading is hard enough right now without adding in another level of risk.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">3. MY CURRENT LIVE TRADES:</span></b>\n\nI am in three live trades at this present time. Should there be a miracle of progress in the U.S. shutdown story over the weekend, I am viewing it as USD positive and therefore on this basis I am happy to hold the trades over. In addition, if there is no settlement on the situation, I think that the markets will start to jitter and this again is a USD positive position in my opinion.\n<p align=\"center\"><b>EUR/USD\n</b><b>Trade Direction: Short:</b><b>Entry\n/Cost Average: 1.3581\n</b><b>Stop Loss: 1.3660\n</b><b>Limit/Profit Target: 1.3450\n</b><b>Position Size: 40%\n</b><b>Closing Price: 1.3556\n</b><b>Present Position:  +25 pips</b><b> </b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>NZD/USD\n</b><b>Trade Direction: Short\n</b><b>Entry/Cost Average: 0.8327\n</b><b>Limit/Profit Target: 0.8200\n</b><b>Position Size: 40%\n</b><b>Closing Price: 0.8314\n</b><b>Present Position:  +13 pips</b><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>AUD/USD\n</b><b>Trade Direction: Short\n</b><b>Entry/Cost Average: 0.9421\n</b><b>Stop Loss: 0.9540\n</b><b>Limit/Profit Target: 0.8890\n</b><b>Position Size: 40%\n</b><b>Closing Price: 0.9435\n</b><b>Present Position:  -14 pips</b></p>\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">4. POTENTIAL TRADES ON MY RADAR:</span></b><b> </b>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>USD/CAD\n</b><b>Long from: 1.0260\n</b><b>Stop Loss: 1.0180\n</b><b>Initial Target: 1.0680</b><b> </b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>USD/CHF\n</b><b>Long from: 0.8990\n</b><b>Stop Loss: 0.8950\n</b><b>Initial Target: 0.9430</b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b></p>\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">5. LOOKING FORWARD…THE KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS:</span></b>\n\n<b>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3556. </b>Even with the ECB press conference not mentioning LTRO or rate cuts the EUR/USD only briefly hung about over 1.3600.  We closed the week below the previous strong resistance at 1.3570 and this, in my opinion, should set us up for a continued move lower with this pair. I am short, so I want this to happen. There is a lot of uncertainty around at the moment and if U.S. politician brinkmanship continues the twitchier it all becomes, and, I feel this will produce a roll over in equities and a stronger USD.\n\n<b>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.6006.  </b>We saw failure at about the1.6250 level. We never hit my goal short entry level at 1.6300, which as you can guess is a right pain in the a** for me given that we closed the week at 1.6006.  Key support lies just below at 1.5960. A break lower through this level and we could see an accelerated move lower. We were over-bought hence the correction move lower; we are in danger of becoming over-sold. If we get a bounce in Asia on Sunday night, we could see a move back to 1.6200, which I guess will be sold into. I am thinking that the cable is heading lower with risk.\n\n<b>AUD/USD: Closing Price 0.9435</b>. I took a short on Friday primarily due to the fact that the EUR/USD and GBP/USD were under pressure and stocks started to falter. Equities ended up higher but it is jittery. My entry level was 0.9500 to 0.9533, so I took this trade earlier than anticipated to establish my short position.  I think we are heading lower once again with this pair, but 0.9270 needs to be taken out to have my thoughts confirmed. Upside resistance is good at 0.9470.\n\n<b>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8314</b>.  This pair is very stubborn at the moment. I have tried shorting it a number of times over recent weeks with a mixed bag of results. We are in a trading range of 0.8200 to 0.8340 and if the truth be known this range is a couple of weeks old. I am short, but I would feel a great deal happier with an 0.82 handle than 0.83 at the moment.\n\n<b>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.0292. </b>This pair is on my radar for a long at 1.0260. I have been patiently waiting for this number. We may only drop to the 1.0275 level in which case, that will have to do. I really feel, that there is going to soon be the mother of all squeezes with this pair front and centre.  If I can get long and we break above 1.0360, that could initiate the squeeze<b>.</b>\n\n<b>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.9069. </b>I have taken a bit of an interest in this pair since it dropped below 0.9000. I am looking to get long on a pullback to that level once again. 0.8990 is key support and resistance does not really show itself unless we break above 0.9130.\n\n<b>USD/JPY: Closing Price 97.46. </b>We are so close to Armageddon with this pair. Below 96.70 and we are off to 95.00 in my opinion, BOJ or no BOJ intervention, maybe even lower. Then we will have the trade of the century riding this pair back above 100.00 in my opinion. For now the range that interests me is 96.90 to 98.50.\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b>\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">6. MAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:</span></b>\n\nSUNDAY: N/A\n\nMONDAY: CAD – Building Permits and IVEY PMi\nMONDAY: CNY – CPi and GDP\n\nTUESDAY: AUD – Employment Change and Unemployment Rates.\n\nWEDNESDAY: CNY – Trade balance\nWEDNESDAY: USD – FOMC Meeting Minutes\n\nTHURSDAY: GBP – Asset Purchase Facility and UK BOE Bank Rate.\n\nFRIDAY: CAD – Employment Change and Unemployment Rate.\nFRIDAY: USD – Core Retail Sales, PPi and Retail Sales\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">7. FINAL THOUGHTS:</span></b>\n\nI hope that I have not depressed you too much, or scared you off trading at the moment. It is just that risk assessment is crucial in Forex Trading and at the moment risks are high. Therefore unless you have to trade, sometimes it is better to remain in cash on the sidelines.\n\nAs always, trade within the parameters of your trading plan and take care. Know your risk before you enter a trade. Do not extend your losses if the trade goes against you. You have to be there to fight the next day, the next week and the next month. Let the trades come to you.\n\nWatch out for the Midweek Fx Drive-Thru #3 this week.\n\nGood luck and take care.\n\nScott Pickering\nThe Pip Accumulator\nSaturday October 5th 2013\n\nFOLLOW ME AT:\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\n\n&nbsp;','ARE THE MARKETS COMPLACENT...NOT JUST ON THE U.S. SHUTDOWN BUT ALSO ON EUROPEAN ISSUES?','','publish','open','closed','','markets-complacent-just-u-s-shutdown-also-european-issues','','','2013-10-05 10:43:10','2013-10-05 15:43:10','',0,'http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/?p=2005',0,'post','',0),(2010,1,'2013-10-09 11:47:44','2013-10-09 16:47:44','<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">1. INTRODUCTION:</span></b>\n\nI do not have much to write about this time as I am basically sitting back in cash, watching the TV and reading various fx reviews whilst waiting for the politicians to settle.\n\nThe big news is obviously, that the high stakes game of chicken in Washington continues. Other important news is that Janet Yellen will later today be appointed as Ben’s replacement in the FED chair. It’s all exciting stuff; one can hardly contain the excitement.\n\nVery interesting times lie ahead as we approach the “Debt Ceiling” deadline. One thing I do know about with regards to negotiation is, the continued rhetoric and repeated statements saying that you are not moving from your present position makes it very hard to move the longer time drags on. Both sides are standing firm and without doubt one side will lose face in order to reach a settlement. This will not be a pretty settlement. Watch this space as something has got to give.\n\nThose of you who have followed my blogs for sometime will know that I am a cautious trader by nature, I hate losing money, and, having lost money in the past I am now very disciplined in my approach to placing trades. I miss a lot of trades because I will not chase trades lower or higher. I try my best at all times to wait for prices to hit my target areas before either buying or selling. My reason for writing this is simple. As we enter a period of increasing market uncertainty the fx moves can be quite volatile and it is easy to get suckered into trades because of greed. Over the next week or so, if I enter a trade it will be of a very small size to allow for volatility. Capital preservation is key to Fx trading success do not blow your account in times like these.<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b>\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">2. EXISTING LIVE TRADES:</span></b>\n\nI have none at this time.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">3. POTENTIAL TRADES ON MY RADAR:</span></b>\n\nAs you know, I am not a 5-minute scalper trader. I am really a swing, position trader and at the moment sitting back in $$$. I am not looking to enter trades in huge volumes as I think we are basically range trading pending a resolution to the U.S. debt crisis etc. There will be lots of continued foostering going on with movements back and forth but no real directional moves until we see a settlement.\n\nFor this reason, there is not a lot on my radar at the moment. I am basically looking to be long the USD as I feel that this is the trade to be in in the medium term.\n\n<b>AUD/USD:</b>\n\nI am waiting patiently for this pair to enter my sell zone of 0.9500 to 0.9550. This is the area that I believe represents good value and a great risk reward for a short trade. I am thinking that if/should we get a resolution to the U.S. debt ceiling and the government re-opens, we may get a period of USD weakness to enable this trade to be activated.\n\n<b>NZD/USD:</b>\n\nI think that I have tried this trade set up several times recently. I want to short at 0.8340-0.8350 back to 0.8200.\n\n<b>EUR/USD:</b>\n\nThis pair continues to trade in a range of 1.3450 to 1.3570. I am looking to get long at support and short at resistance. It is mid-range at the moment.\n\n<b>USD/CAD:</b>\n\nI want to enter long at 1.0275-1.0300. We will hopefully see a pullback and this level offers a great risk reward.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">4. FINAL THOUGHTS:</span></b>\n\nTrade carefully, if you feel that you must be in trades at the moment. Do not get suckered into trades, as there will be false breakouts and breakdowns.\n\n&nbsp;\n\nGood luck and take care.\n\nScott Pickering\nThe Pip Accumulator\nWednesday October 9th 2013\n\nFOLLOW ME AT:\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\n\n&nbsp;','THE MIDWEEK FX FIX #3  (09.10.13)','','publish','open','closed','','midweek-fx-fix-3-09-10-13','','','2013-10-09 11:47:44','2013-10-09 16:47:44','',0,'http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/?p=2010',0,'post','',0),(2014,1,'2013-10-12 08:34:13','2013-10-12 13:34:13','<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">1. INTRODUCTION:</span></b>\n\nThe Washington D.C. game of “chicken” continues.\n\nNow we see that the U.S. politicians are playing, or attempting to play the Eurozone approach of “Kicking the can down the road” by trying to settle on a five to six week extension. So far, this approach could not even gain traction in the negotiations. Observing from the outside, to be honest, I do not blame Obama for not accepting this bargaining tool from the GOP as he has the Republicans on the back foot. The Republican Party as a whole, except the Tea Party faction, are feeling pressure from constituents. They are in danger of losing the popular vote in marginal constituencies. They hold quite a number of marginal seats at the moment and they are being seen in the popular press as the blockage to progress in the negotiations, or rather lack of them!!\n\nI have been limiting my trading of late to preserve my broker account capital. The main reason for pulling back on my trading is just to be a little sensible whilst there is a great deal of market uncertainty. We are in trading ranges with most major forex pairs, and within these ranges the daily ‘chop fest” takes place. It is hard enough trading at the best of times, so for me, to add this additional layer of stress is just not desirable.\n\nI tried on one or two occasions to set positional trades in place, but even then after placing the trades I read a bit here and there and decided to take profits. I do think in “Times like these” (according to Dave Grohl), it’s best to maybe sit back and observe.\n\nJanet Yellen has been confirmed as the replacement for Ben Bernanke as the new FED Head. This kind of crept under the radar a little as the children in the capital were playing their games with the lives of ordinary Americans. This appointment, after Larry Summers pulled out was highly expected and at least it gives the markets continuity of approach by the Fed although at some stage she will want to stamp her own authoritative mark on the way the FED moves.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">2. THE VIEW FROM MY TRADING DESK:</span></b>\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">IS PEOPLE PRESSURE BRINGING THE U.S. CLOSER TO A DEAL IN WASHINGTON?</span></b></p>\nThe biggest single issue on trading blogs and financial news networks at the moment is the continuing breakdown in Washington. The refusal and digging in of heels not wanting to give an inch in negotiation is being seen as laughable by many commentators. However, in the last day or so I am starting to think that for all the political posturing and all the brave statements from both sides about “final offers”, “we are walking away” and “no more negotiation” there are signs of cracks appearing. The markets make money out of fear and greed. Politicians thrive on it…they are junkies for it.\n\nIt is fear placed into the Republican party via their voters that may be bringing common sense into the negotiations. It may well be the American voters placing fear where politicians hate it most, in the ballot box that is finally bringing the two sides together.\n\nInitial talks have been held and although maintaining one’s negotiation position is vital, at least the two sides are talking.\n\nThe American parliamentary boundary map is a fascinating document to study. Over the recent years government after government have refined the electoral boundaries so much that there are so many “safe” seats now in place that the now all too few seats that can be categorized “floating” are causing the party leaders concern. In particular, the Republican Party has quite a few of these types of seats in major eastern cities that tend to be more Democratic in party affiliation. The pressure of potentially losing share of the vote in these constituencies is causing concern. Not that this worries the 30 or so “Tea Party” lobbyists, who, are all in very safe GOP strongholds. But, it is bringing matters to a head with regards to coming to the table to try to broker a deal.\n\nIf this is true and the longer this stalemate continues, the greater the chance of voter dissatisfaction increases and, the greater the chance the fear of losing seats increases. Will this bring the Republican Party to the “crossroads” seats or tea party?\n\nI watched Donald Trump re-iterate this past Thursday evening, what is being touted about by many Republicans that Obama has “no negotiation experience”. In my opinion this is a fighting comment made by the GOP as they are worried and they say this to deflect from issues that they are having with supporting voters demanding a resolution to the government shutdown. As I see it, Obama has all the cards, he has “Obamacare” passed into law, and the GOP’s “Tea Party” members are on a very weak footing trying to hold the country to ransom, by forcing the hand of the Republican leadership.\n\nObama’s negotiation skills and stance look pretty good as a non U.S. citizen observing from the sidelines. I am not politically motivated; it is crazy, stupid, bloody ridiculous and just weak management by John Boehner (Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives) exposing the fact that he cannot control his party. If this were a business, he would not have taken, nor would he be allowed to pursue the route he has taken if he were in disagreement with a company policy decision, it is just mental to think that ”the alleged” super-power of the world has numpties such as these representing people making domestic and international policy decisions.\n\nIt is therefore, not the politicians that will bring the “Shutdown” and “Debt Ceiling” issues to a head. In my opinion, the voter will apply pressure directly to where it hurts. Ironic isn’t it the people the politicians hurt the most are in fact the ones with the power to fix it?\n\nPower to the people…that’s what I say; I just cannot believe what most politicians say. They are not trained at what they do; they are just in the political business to play games and do not actually represent their constituents, nor do they in most cases try to improve the general well being of their country.\n\nOff my soap-box…what is the forex trade?\n\nAll that being said, where is the trade?\n\nI believe initially on a U.S. settlement that there will be relief in the markets and the equity markets will rally. Then, the reality that “tapering” is back on will set in. On the basis that the silly games in D.C. will be over, this may give Janet Yellen / Ben Bernanke more options on the initial size reduction to taper. This will resonate with markets very quickly. This will cause USD strength and a market sell-off, which is so long overdue it just needed a catalyst. Tapering or a Eurozone issue, either would do, combined we could see a 15-20% S&amp;P pull back. That’s not important to me right now, but I do see a USD long being the trader to be moving forward.\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b>\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">3. MY CURRENT LIVE TRADES:</span></b>\n\nI am currently not in any live trades. I opened four on Friday morning and decided to close them. Three with profit and one with a loss. All the press statements and TV news were conflicting and I thought why do this; just sit back and wait.\n\nI am now waiting for a Washington D.C. settlement before looking to establish positions once again.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">4. POTENTIAL TRADES ON MY RADAR:</span></b>\n\nHere is my plan / strategy: -\n\nAs I have written already, I am expecting after an agreement is reached to re-open the U.S. government and sort out the debt ceiling limit that there will be a period of USD weakness. This will soon be followed by USD strength to enter the market as realism of tapering comes into view.\n\nI am looking to use the above scenario as a means to trade the USD long as the major pairs react. Below, I provide the entry and stop levels, plus the initial target levels that come to mind. I am expecting the moves to be quite large as we are due an equity market pullback as well. Add to this the fact I believe we should see Gold drop below $1,000. If you check the weekly Gold chart there is a bearish flag formation pointing to $800.00. I am expecting Oil to pull back below $100 as well. Both of these moves are also USD positive to help the USD strengthen.\n<p align=\"center\"><b>USD/CAD\n</b><b>Long at: 1.0260\n</b><b>Stop Loss: 1.0180\n</b><b>Initial Target: 1.0680</b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>USD/CHF\n</b><b>Long at: 0.8990\n</b><b>Stop Loss: 0.8950\n</b><b>Initial Target: 0.9430</b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>EUR/USD\n</b><b>Short at: 1.3670\n</b><b>Stop Loss: 1.3750\n</b><b>Initial Target 1.3200</b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>AUD/USD\nShort at: 0.9550\nStop Loss: 0.9630\n</b><b>Initial Target: 0.9200</b><b> </b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>NZD/USD\n</b><b>Short at: 0.8430\n</b><b>Stop Loss: 0.8520\n</b><b>Initial Target: 0.8000</b></p>\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b>\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">5. LOOKING FORWARD…THE KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS:</span></b>\n\n<b>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3538. </b>Pretty much as I said last week. We are still in a trading range. This pair is well supported at 1.3450 (FOMC No Taper Press Conference Day) and resistance is at 1.3660. I hate repeating myself but the best trade is to ignore the chop fest and wait for a confirmed breakout.\n\n<b>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.5946. </b>Just like I wrote last week, we saw failure at 1.6250 and ever since we have been tracking lower. Big support at 1.5970 was breached this week. I think the GBP bulls will cave should the Armageddon line in the sand at 1.5915 is crossed.  A break thru here opens up a move back towards 1.5800 initially and then to be realistic we should bounce but if not 1.5500 becomes the target for GBP bears.\n\n<b>AUD/USD: Closing Price 0.9465</b>. One of my favourite pairs to trade, but I am finding chart reading a nightmare. It is so choppy and not really a pair that offers any help. The way I see it is that I really want it to rally properly, get the long move and any AUD shorts squeezed out so I can get short at a great risk reward level of around 0.9600. It threatens to do this, then it pulls back…. chop chop bloody chop. The range of 0.9390 to 0.9530 needs to be broken to give me a clue what to do with this pair. If you can make sense of it, good luck.\n\n<b>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8316</b>.  Not much of a move in a week, just two pips!! Very similar to the Aussie. I really want the range broken. Once we set ourselves free of 0.8200 to 0.8430 then I think this pair will directionalise itself once again. For the moment the chop chop continues. Like most pairs a resolution in Washington is required.\n\n<b>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.0347. </b>I lost money on this pair trying to play a breakout above 1.0400. I foolishly missed the 1.0340-1.0360 move and to some extent I was revenge trading. The charts did look bullish above the 1.0360 breakout and to some extent still do even though we closed at 1.0347. 1.0340 was the big resistance recently and as long as we stay ahead of this number through the Asian opening and European sessions that start off next week, I will still be bullish. My best trade though would be a pullback to 1.0275-1.0300 and get long there for another run to the long side. Let this pair come to the trade set up that you want deploy.\n\n<b>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.9108. </b>0.8990 held fantastically well as support last week. I traded this pair briefly on Friday and banked some good profits. Now I wait for Washington to agree a settlement to let it pullback to the lows again to enter long…hopefully. Anywhere between 0.8990 and 0.9050 would be a reasonable area to establish a long position with limited risk. Above 0.9180 sees this pair turn bullish once again.\n\n<b>USD/JPY: Closing Price 98.55. </b>I really do not know what to write about, or what to do with this pair. I find it confusing and so affected by press sound-bytes I am staying away from it personally. The trade of the year is long the JPY. I really thought by now we would be at 105.00 -110.00. But frustratingly we have been from 96.50 to 99.00, up and then back and then up and then back. 99.20 a week or so ago looked a number where a squeeze would happen…it didn’t, in fact, we pulled back.  The range that may set up a directional move is 97.50 to 99.00. A break of this range may do it but do not count on it unless Washington has settled.\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b>\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">6. MAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:</span></b>\n\nSUNDAY: N/A\n\nMONDAY: NZD – CPi\nMONDAY: AUD – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes\n\nTUESDAY: N/A\n\nWEDNESDAY: N/A\nWEDNESDAY: N/A\n\nTHURSDAY: N/A\n\nFRIDAY: CAD – Core CPi\nFRIDAY: GBP –Retail Sales\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b>\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">7. FINAL THOUGHTS:</span></b>\n\nI am not looking at next week’s news with great interest. My sole focus right now is on the U.S. Washington D.C. settlement. This is a trump card to all other news in my opinion. The longer stalemate exists the more twitchy everybody’s bottom in the centre of the mess becomes.\n\nI am going to try and keep my fingers way from the keyboard until I feel that my plan on USD long positions is ready to action.\n\nIf you feel that you must trade, be careful, because as time progresses moves will be more and more choppy. Trade smaller with wider stops and trade within the guidelines of your trading plan.\n\nI will update in the middle of the week with the Midweek Fx Fix, either Tuesday evening in Asia or Wednesday morning in the North American session.\n\nGood luck and take care.\n\nScott Pickering\nThe Pip Accumulator\nSaturday October 12th 2013\n\nFOLLOW ME AT:\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\n\n&nbsp;','IS IT VOTER PRESSURE BRINGING THE U.S. CLOSER TO A DEAL IN WASHINGTON?','','publish','open','closed','','voter-pressure-bringing-u-s-closer-deal-washington','','','2013-10-12 08:34:13','2013-10-12 13:34:13','',0,'http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/?p=2014',0,'post','',0),(3011,16,'2014-01-17 14:38:59','2014-01-17 19:38:59','&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">1. INTRODUCTION:</span></b>\r\n\r\n<b></b>The title of my blog last week was: -  “THE JPY WILL SOON DICTATE THE MARKET DIRECTION”. It looks like it will have the big say in the markets direction, however, I was focused on it breaking lower through support at 97.00 not breaking higher through resistance around 99.00-99.20. The pair is now just below the triangle resistance line on the weekly chart  with its close this week at 98.66 and one small push higher may see it break through. As a forex trader you have be a lot things, but being flexible is probably one of the major characteristics. On a personal note though, I am disappointed that I did not get the opportunity, so far that is (never say never), to enter the USD/JPY long around 95.00.\r\n\r\nThe big news in the week just gone was the FOMC statement. Following which, the market interpreted the release completely different than the earlier release yet it was only one line different in real terms from the statement released last month. Talk about a fickle market?\r\n\r\nIn any event, it is what it is, and, the EUR/USD got smacked, good style. It appears that we may have seen the highs in this pair at 1.3830. We now trade over 300 pips lower and there are now calls for a single currency interest rate cut.  These calls for the rate cut emanated from the release of continued poor employment statistics for the Eurozone (that are still in excess of 12% and at record highs) and in addition dreadful inflation figures for the Eurozone both sets of data were released the day after the FOMC.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">2. THE VIEW FROM MY TRADING DESK:</span></b>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">THE EURO IS ABOUT TO OFFER SOME INTERESTING TRADING OPPORTUNITIES AS THE CONTINUED EUR/USD DECLINE APPROACHES 1.3450; PLUS WE HAVE A DRAGHI PRESS CONFERENCE ON THE HORIZON JUST FOR GOOD MEASURE AND ADD EXTRA SPICE</span></b></p>\r\nThe EUR/USD is dropping nicely towards a key level of support at 1.3450. It is very oversold at the moment and usually this means that a period of consolidation should be around the corner. Having just written that, if you recall when the USD/JPY was on the “Abe” rampage earlier this year from 85.00 to 105.00 it was for most of the time over bought and that didn’t matter too much. I do think though we should bear the oversold conditions in mind. It just cannot keep straight lining lower.\r\n\r\nThe support level in the EUR/USD at 1.3450 was the breakout level from a previous FED meeting and for days/weeks following contained price movements. As we trade towards this level there are options available in the EUR across the board not just the EUR/USD but also the cross-pairs EUR/CAD, EUR/AUD, EUR/NZD and EUR/GBP. Trading these crosses increases your risk as these pairs, with the exception of the EUR/GBP, move very fast and can be very volatile.\r\n\r\nI am presently short the EUR/USD from a cost average of 1.3541. Just below 1.3500 I reduced my trade size from 100% to 40% to limit my risk as we get closer to 1.3450. I am hoping that the EUR/USD continues to fall and should it do so I will add to my position. At the same time I am ready for it to bounce from support at 1.3450. When possible, I will move my stop, which, is now at break even probably to 1.3490 in tandem with the EUR/USD fall so that I can keep profits if it does bounce at 1.3450.\r\n\r\nThere is a major news event for the Eurozone on the horizon. On Thursday we have an interest rate decision and an ECB press conference to follow. There are calls that are getting louder for the ECB to cut interest rates. An ECB press conference is usually a volatile news event so if rates are cut and we have a chance for Draghi to talk the single currency lower we could see a huge move. On the other hand if nothing is done, the EUR/USD has great potential to rally\r\n\r\nBelow, I give my trade ideas for both options long and short (bear in mind the EUR/USD may test 1.3450 ahead of the ECB interest rate decision and press conference).\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">EUR/USD:</span></b>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/EURUSD-DAILY-CHART-02112013-1024x5161.png\"><img src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/EURUSD-DAILY-CHART-02112013-1024x5161.png\" alt=\"EURUSD-DAILY-CHART-02112013-1024x516\" width=\"1024\" height=\"516\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-3006\" /></a>\r\n\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>THIS WEEK’S CLOSING POSITION: 1.3486</strong>\r\n\r\nFrom the chart above you can see two very long red daily candles, the EUR/USD is without doubt bearish. There is the potential for a large move lower should rates be cut. The recent fundamental news in the Eurozone has been poor, and, whilst I think the pair will bounce if rates are not cut a lot of attention and subsequent moves in the pair will be dependant upon what Draghi says in the press conference, so the bounce could be limited. We will have to wait and see.\r\n\r\n<strong>WITH A RATE CUT:</strong>  The 50% retracement of the move highlighted in the chart above is just below 1.3300. I see this as the first goal lower.\r\n\r\n<strong>NO RATE CUT:</strong> The bounce will happen but it may not be as dramatic as we think it could be because of poor fundamentals. The first goal would be a move back to 1.3580.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">EUR/CAD:</span></b>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/EURCAD-DAILY-CHART-02112013-1024x516.png\"><img src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/EURCAD-DAILY-CHART-02112013-1024x516.png\" alt=\"EURCAD-DAILY-CHART-02112013-1024x516\" width=\"1024\" height=\"516\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-3007\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong>THIS WEEK’S CLOSING POSITION: 1.4049</strong>\r\n\r\nFrom the chart above you can see that we are on trend line support at 1.4082. I took a long trade in this area yesterday (Friday) a very small position with a tight stop of 80 pips.\r\n\r\n<strong>WITH A RATE CUT:</strong> I think that I would be stopped out if I am still in this trade. The target for the first resting place on a move lower would be 1.3940. This would represent a full retracement of the move on the chart. The potential however could be to go a lot lower.\r\n\r\n<strong>NO RATE CUT:</strong> I think that a move back to 1.4250 would be possible and that is what I am hoping for should we see a bounce with this currency pair.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">EUR/AUD:</span></b>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/EURAUD-DAILY-02112013-1024x516.png\"><img src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/EURAUD-DAILY-02112013-1024x516.png\" alt=\"EURAUD-DAILY-02112013-1024x516\" width=\"1024\" height=\"516\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-3008\" /></a>\r\n\r\n\r\n<strong>THIS WEEKS CLOSING POSITION: 1.4284</strong>\r\n\r\nAs you can see from the chart above we are in a triangle pattern. This pair causes me some issues and as a result unless I have a 100% confirmation of a move I would personally not trade it.\r\n\r\nI would also like confirmation of how the AUD/USD is moving before thinking about trading this pair in either direction.\r\n\r\n<strong>WITH A RATE CUT:</strong> We could fall very quickly to 1.4100. This would seem to be a great place to think about taking a long trade.\r\n\r\n<strong>NO RATE CUT:</strong> The move back to 1.4520 and beyond could be in play.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">EUR/NZD:</span></b>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/EURNZD-DAILY-CHART-02112013-1024x516.png\"><img src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/EURNZD-DAILY-CHART-02112013-1024x516.png\" alt=\"EURNZD-DAILY-CHART-02112013-1024x516\" width=\"1024\" height=\"516\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-3009\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong>THIS WEEK’S CLOSING POSITION: 1.6303</strong>\r\n\r\nThe move lower has basically taken this pair from trend line resistance back to trend line support based on the daily chart above, that was a swift move from 1.6700 to 1.6300. A long trade offers good risk / reward if you want to try. Personally, I would want the NZD/USD to be moving in the same direction as the EUR/USD to give me the confidence to enter a trade with this pair.\r\n\r\n<strong>WITH A RATE CUT:</strong> This pair could be as low as 1.6000 very, very quickly. I would be long here.\r\n\r\n<strong>NO RATE CUT:</strong> A bounce to 1.6500 could be seen, maybe higher.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b>EUR/GBP:</b>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/EURGBP-DAILY-02112013-1024x516.png\"><img src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/EURGBP-DAILY-02112013-1024x516.png\" alt=\"EURGBP-DAILY-02112013-1024x516\" width=\"1024\" height=\"516\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-3010\" /></a>\r\n\r\n\r\n<strong>THIS WEEK’S CLOSING POSITION: 0.8466</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>WITH A RATE CUT:</strong> This pair could be trading at 0.8425, which is the 61.8% retracement of the last big move on the daily chart. If this level does not hold 0.8375 is the next level.\r\n\r\n<strong>NO RATE CUT:</strong> A move back to 0.8500 and then 0.8525.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nI will review these trade ideas as the week progresses via Twitter and in the “Midweek Fx Fix” on Wednesday.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">3. MY CURRENT LIVE TRADES:</span></b>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>EUR/USD\r\n</b><b>Short\r\n</b><b>Yesterday’s Closing Position 1.3486\r\n</b><b>Entry / Cost Average: 1.3541\r\n</b><b>Position Size: 40%\r\n</b><b>Stop Loss: 1.3538 (basically a break even stop)\r\n</b><b>Target / Limit: 1.3250\r\n</b><b>Present Position: +54 pips</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>USD/CAD\r\n</b><b>Long\r\n</b><b>Yesterday’s Closing Position 1.0418\r\n</b><b>Entry / Cost Average: 1.0486\r\n</b><b>Position Size: 40%\r\n</b><b>Stop Loss: 1.0350\r\n</b><b>Target / Limit: 1.0540\r\n</b><b>Present Position: -68 pips</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>NZD/USD\r\n</b><b>Short\r\n</b><b>Yesterday’s Closing Position 0.8264\r\n</b><b>Entry / Cost Average: 08257\r\n</b><b>Position Size: 40%\r\n</b><b>Stop Loss: 0.8340\r\n</b><b>Target / Limit: 0.8150\r\n</b><b>Present Position: -17 pips</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>EUR/CAD\r\n</b><b>Long\r\n</b><b>Yesterday’s Closing Position 1.4049\r\n</b><b>Entry / Cost Average: 1.4096\r\n</b><b>Position Size: 20%\r\n</b><b>Stop Loss: 1.4000\r\n</b><b>Target / Limit: 1.4250\r\n</b><b>Present Position: -47 pips</b></p>\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">4. OTHER POTENTIAL TRADES THAT ARE ON MY RADAR:</span></b>\r\n\r\nI am focused on the moves with the EUR and it’s crosses. I do however have one limit order trade still in position with my broker. I have not cancelled it and although it is quite some way away from the current market. It is set at a key level in my opinion so I am going to leave it in place.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>USD/CHF\r\n</b><b>Long at: 0.8865\r\n</b><b>Stop Loss: 0.8825\r\n</b><b>Initial Target: 0.9000</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b> </b></p>\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">5. LOOKING FORWARD…THE KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS:</span></b>\r\n\r\n<b>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3486.</b> Definitely in a bearish trend. 1.3450 looms as key support.  I see resistance at 1.3580. Only at this level would the bulls resume control.\r\n\r\n<b>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.5922.  </b>Critical support at 1.5900 lies ahead. If we break below here I see 1.5750 looming. A lot depends on how the EUR/USD trades as to how the cable will react. It is now bearish in my mind. Resistance for this pair is at 1.6010.\r\n\r\n<b>AUD/USD: Closing Price 0.9436</b>.  I think that I want to short the \"Aussie\". But not here around 0.9520-0.9560 seems to be the resistance area. Support is really where we closed at 0.9440. I see 0.9350 as the next level lower.\r\n\r\n<b>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8264</b>. Little change in the week. Why am I always trying to trade this pair lower? I keep asking myself that question and I still do not know the answer. We seem range bound with the \"Kiwi\". As I see it 0.8200 to 0.8340 is the range. Be clever wait for it to break free to give you the direction. I suppose being sensible the pair has consolidated this week after last weeks 200 pip drop lower. I would still wait for a range break before entering a trade.\r\n\r\n<b>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.0418. </b>Some good Canadian data has kept the lid on the \"Loonie\" breaking out. Maybe this week it will happen if the EUR/USD falls. The range is 1.0380 to 1.0440\r\n\r\n<b>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.9119. </b>I missed my trade from lower levels with this pair..argh!! Now it is setting up to move higher. The range I am looking at is 0.9050 to 0.9200.\r\n\r\n<b>USD/JPY: Closing Price 98.66.  </b>The JPY \"Abe and Kuroda\" freight train rolls on. I just cannot fathom out this pair. One minute I think collapse, the next squeeze higher. On the upside a break through 99.20 sets up 100.00. On the downside 97.50 sets up a move to the critical 97.00 support.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">6. MAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:</span></b>\r\n\r\nSUNDAY: AUD – Retail Sales.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: AUD – Cash Rate &amp; RBA rate statement.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: USD – ISM Non Manufacturing PMi.\r\nTUESDAY: NZD – Unemployment Rate.\r\nTUESDAY: AUD – Trade Balance\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: CAD – Ivey PMi.\r\nWEDNESDAY: AUD – Employment Rate.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: GBP – Interest Rate &amp; Asset Purchase Facility.\r\nTHURSDAY: EUR – Interest Rate &amp; ECB Press Conference.\r\nTHURSDAY: AUD – RBA Monetary Policy Statement.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: CAD – Unemployment Rate.\r\nFRIDAY: USD – Non Farm Payroll &amp; Unemployment rate.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">7. FINAL THOUGHTS:</span></b>\r\n\r\nLots of news items during this next week that will/ should be market movers. I think that this is a week where you should be selective in what you trade. Keep your risks to a minimum.\r\n\r\nAs always, trade mean and trade lean inside the limits of your trading plan.\r\n\r\nI will update in the middle of the week ahead of the ECB press conference, which, is the pick of the news events, with the “Midweek Fx Fix”.\r\n\r\nGood luck and take care.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nSaturday November 2nd 2013\r\n\r\nFOLLOW ME AT:\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\nGoogle+/scottpickering\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','THE EURO OFFERS UP SOME GREAT $$$ OPPORTUNITIES','','inherit','open','closed','','2053-revision-v1','','','2014-01-17 14:38:59','2014-01-17 19:38:59','',2053,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/2053-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(3012,1,'2014-01-17 16:09:22','2014-01-17 21:09:22','<div>\r\n<h3 style=\"text-align: center;\"></h3>\r\n<strong>1. What is the PREMIUM SERVICE?</strong>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a Forex subscription service that provides you with trade set-ups  both as they happen, or by a strategic entry, plus you will also receive from time to time my thoughts and views on the Forex market. They are my trades, my ideas. I will let you know what I am doing, but I cannot advise you whether to trade or not. If you like the trade that I am taking the decision to trade or not is entirely up to you.\r\n\r\nOver the following few paragraphs I am hoping that I will convince you that having a subscription to the PREMIUM SERVICE is not only a shrewd trading decision but also a shrewd business decision.  Whilst I cannot 100% guarantee that you will make money from the trades I suggest, the PREMIUM SERVICE now has a two-year track record of a profitable performance, regardless of the size of your investment into the Forex market.\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is different from other TRADE SIGNAL providers. I offer a personal service that invites you to ask questions. I am contactable at most times. I enjoy interaction with my subscribers. I consider myself an educator as well as a trader. I trade my set-ups.\r\n\r\n</div>\r\nMy aim is to create a consistency in trading for all subscribers, whether you are trading with a broker account of $1,000.00 or $500,000.00. The thrill / delight of a trade set-up performing in line with your expectations is still exciting to me after many years of trading.\r\n<div>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>2. How did the PREMIUM SERVICE evolve?</strong>\r\n\r\nI started trading Forex about 10 years ago. Like many new traders I thought that the Forex Market was: -\r\n\r\na)    An easy way to add an additional income stream into my family’s monthly finances.\r\n\r\nb)    Quite straightforward, the chart reading seemed easy to follow; until I realized the trainer was always looking back at this is what you should have done.\r\n\r\nc)    Nobody really sat me down and taught me about “Levels of interest”, “Support and Resistance”, “Pivot Points and their uses”, and how useful certain “Fibonacci levels” are when plotting potential moves.\r\n\r\nIt took me 3 or 4 years of learning the hard way, to come to the realization that trading Forex is not that straightforward and it most certainly is NOT easy. My last 3 years or so of trading however has changed my entire view on the markets and how I trade them.\r\n\r\nIn 2013, I made the decision that I would change the format of my blog “THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU”, which had previously contained many successful trade set-ups on all types of trades and currency pairs to have a different focus.\r\n\r\nStarting in 2014 I launched a more detailed weekly review called the PREMIUM SERVICE in which all my set-ups and thoughts on the market are contained. Details of the first two years of the PREMIUM SERVICE performance are set out below in section 6.\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE has completed two years of performance with a full, complete and published profitable trading history behind it.  My initial goals and objectives have been achieved. Feedback from subscribers is positive. There is a family \"feel\" to the service and I am to coin a phrase…. absolutely delighted.\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE moves into 2016, stronger and with an additional trade style  POSITION  TRADES formerly \"PART-TIME TRADE TRADES\". There are thousands of Forex traders in the world that I classify as PART-TIME. They fall between a rock and hard place when it comes to help. Brokers are just not interested. Forex trading is lonely as we all know and the PART-TIME trader is even more remote. My goal is to bring the PART-TIME TRADER into the PREMIUM SERVICE by providing these traders with limited computer/ smart phone access specific trades.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div>\r\n\r\n<strong>3. The PREMIUM SERVICE is for all traders - what type of trader are you?</strong>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE attracts many different traders at different levels of experience: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>NEW FULL-TIME OR NEW PART-TIME TRADERS – Looking to generate either a permanent additional income stream or a supplementary income stream. PART-TIME traders specifically, should also check out my other tab on my landing page titled PART-TIME TRADERS. The POSITION trade set-ups are hoped to be longer-term, specifically aimed at traders who do not have unlimited access to their devices to check trades. These trades are for those traders who can only view their computers only twice/three times a day to review progress in full. I do however, assume via an iPhone or equivalent that you could react to the odd trade amendment that may be sent via twitter. Whilst these longer-term POSITION trades are aimed at PART-TIME traders they are of course open to all traders.</li>\r\n 	<li>AN INTERMEDIATE TRADER – Looking for additional support, maybe a different perspective on trades.</li>\r\n 	<li>A SEASONED TRADER – Finding it very isolated and hard with existing trading conditions and looking for confirmations of another traders view.</li>\r\n 	<li>A TECHNICAL TRADER – Just looking for an alternative view, a different set of eyes interpreting the same chart, maybe seeking some validation.\r\nMaybe you just want a “Fundamental traders” viewpoint as an alternative.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>4. TRADE STYLE definitions:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>RADAR TRADES (RT):</strong>\r\nThese are pre-meditated limit order entry trades set from either Fibonacci levels, pivot points or previous support and resistance based off a combination of horizontal or trend line support or resistance. The goal if possible, is to allow the trade to gather traction and develop into a swing or even a longer-term position trade.\r\n\r\nRADAR TRADES are realistically designed and more suitable to day traders, or traders with a shorter time framed horizon with trades. However, as stated they can sometimes progress further.\r\n\r\nIn my opinion traders need to be active to participate in these trade set-ups.\r\n\r\n<strong>FLASH TRADES (FT):</strong><u>\r\n</u>These trades are simply market opportunist trades in LIVE market conditions. These trades are either based off a pullback strategy, a GIMME10 strategy, or off momentum trading at the time of entry. The goal is to either take 10-30 pips or see a sufficient move to place a protective stop in place to see if a swing trade develops.\r\n\r\nSome FLASH TRADES may form part of an overall trading plan with a given currency pair, but the entry could not be made via a LIMIT ORDER.\r\n\r\nFLASH TRADES are realistically for traders with very short-term trading horizons. They are called FLASH because I see these as quick momentum trades, although, should the momentum keep moving these trades will remain in play. You will however notice that I will move stops to maintain profits and protect profits. It is rare that I hold onto these trades for more than a day. The usual life span is minutes rather than hours.\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, traders need to be very active to participate with these trade set-ups.\r\n\r\n<strong>FUNDAMENTAL TRADES (FUN):</strong><u>\r\n</u>These will be trades based off my TRADING PLAN goals for trades in line with my longer-term market views.\r\nTrades in this area will use in addition Fibonacci levels, Pivot points, trend lines and prior support and resistance levels, weekly and monthly ATR’s (Average True Ranges) when setting Stop Loss levels. These trades are hopefully of a longer-term nature. They will be initially “single-lot” sized trades due to the wider stop placements that will be applied.\r\n\r\nThese trades are for traders who look to hold onto positions for a few days, maybe weeks. Because they are limit order entry trades, usually, as a trader you do not need to be sitting in front of your screens 24 x 7 to participate with these trades.\r\n\r\n<strong>POSITION TRADES (POS):\r\n</strong>These trade set-ups are intended to have a longer-term trading perspective. They are not only targeted at traders who consider they are part-time Forex traders; obviously, all traders can of course take advantage. (My definition of a part-time trader is one who is only able to look at their computer screens, or, mobile devices to check trades two or three times a day). A key feature of these set-ups is that they have much wider than normal stops to allow for market swings and volatility. The trades therefore have a smaller position size to allow for the swings in volatility, but multiple trades in the same currency pair are added when the core trade has gained traction in the desired direction.My goal is to have multiple trades open/live at any one time and maybe 2/3 open/live trades with the same currency pair. I will of course suggest to take some profits along the way, but hopefully at the same time letting trades run as far as possible.\r\n\r\nThese trades were initially launched for those traders who like to hold positions for weeks, even months, and for traders who do NOT want to sit in front of their screens 24 x 7. These trades are also suit PART-TIME traders who can only check their trades on twitter alerts two or three times a day or are only able to look at their computer screens only a few times a day.\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<div>\r\n\r\n<strong>5. How does the PREMIUM SERVICE work; How is it different; What are your benefits of being a subscriber?</strong>\r\n\r\nFirstly, it is NOT an automated system.\r\n\r\nI have a simple annual target on pips; 10,000 pips from 40 weeks of trading.\r\n\r\nI provide you with my trade set-ups and trades that are on “MY RADAR”. I post trade set-ups at the <strong>@</strong>ThePremService twitter feed and I also email  the set-up data for all trade styles, except FLASH trades. During a typical week about 10 trades on average are posted. It is up to you if you decide to follow these trades or not, I am, just telling you what I am doing.\r\n\r\nPREMIUM SERVICE subscribers have access to an exclusive secure twitter feed into which 24x7 I will tweet trade ideas, set-ups, amendments to limit orders, amendments to live trades, basically anything that is on my mind. (Whilst I live on NYC time I am active in most sessions, I sleep at weekends).\r\n\r\nSubscribers also have access to a whole section of training materials on the website. All the trades that are entered are summarized and posted on excel spreadsheets on the website, so that you can see if you did not take a particular trade, whether it made money or not.\r\n\r\nNew in 2017, PREMIUM SERVICE (PLATINUM) subscribers will also receive if they want it, a monthly review one-on-one with me about the way the markets are trading, my general fundamental thoughts and views, plus we can review active trading styles etc. It is not compulsory for PLATINUM subscribers it is an option.\r\n\r\nIn addition, weekly PERISCOPE broadcasts will start offering all subscribers a direct insight into my thoughts on the market conditions.\r\n\r\nI also provide bespoke training, if YOU want it. This is priced individually based upon YOUR needs, timings and requirements. More details about this can be found under the EDUCATION tab in the section called Mentoring and Coaching.\r\n\r\nRead my TESTIMONIALS section, do not just take my word for it.  Everything is published...both the good and the not so good. Like every Forex trader I have losses, it is part of trading when RISK is involved. I have NO secrets all good and bad trades are published. What you see is what you get; I am NOT a CITIBANK or BARCLAYS, I am Scott Pickering a Forex Trader.\r\n\r\nTrading Forex is not a win it quick cash grab. It is basically a RISK ASSESSMENT analysis of  trading charts supported by a FUNDAMENTAL overview of the market. It is fascinating, exciting, thrilling, very rewarding but also frustrating and annoying all at the same time. There are many things written about Forex. It is often called a \"gamblers paradise\" because it\'s a 50-50 option....simply up or down. Better odds than Las Vegas. There is much more to Forex Trading than odds.\r\n\r\nIf you are a gambler please just go to Las Vegas or your closest Casino. Trading Forex involves added risk due to LEVERAGE that Las Vegas does NOT have.\r\n\r\nI can help you through the all the issues no matter what level of trading experience you have, as I have mentioned already I am a trainer / educator as well as a trader and one of my personal goals is to help traders trade with greater consistency as this provides longevity in trading.\r\n\r\nSo, what do you receive from me as a subscriber to the PREMIUM SERVICE: -\r\n\r\nAs soon as I see a trade set-up or a trade that I want to trade, I send out a tweet via my subscribers only TWITTER account @ThePremService see the example below: -\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/TWEET2-FOR-WHAT-YOU-GET.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7837\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/TWEET2-FOR-WHAT-YOU-GET.png\" alt=\"TWEET(2) FOR - WHAT YOU GET\" width=\"263\" height=\"324\" /></a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAs you can see the trade set up is clear and is coded to the TYPE (FUNDAMENTAL ) of trade with a reference number (FUN344) that is used throughout my website and all communications to track the performance of the trade.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/EMAIL-FOR-WHAT-YOU-GET.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7835\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/EMAIL-FOR-WHAT-YOU-GET.png\" alt=\"EMAIL FOR - WHAT YOU GET\" width=\"463\" height=\"538\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThis excel sheet summaries the trade that was tweeted and also comes with the trading chart that accompanied the original TWEET regarding the set-up. As you can see from this example above, I flavour the trade set-up with my thoughts, what sized entry I am taking and what the RISK-REWARD is for the trade, plus as it was a LIMIT ORDER set-up, what the trade expiration date is that is set with my broker.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>PLEASE NOTE:</strong></span> I am a trader 24x5 and NOT all trades will remain open based upon the original trade  parameters outlined when the set-up is posted. I have to adjust to the trade as the trade moves and how the markets are performing. I have to react to geopolitical news events as they happen. I will tell you via TWITTER what I am doing, whether it be moving the LIMIT position or the STOP position etc. but trading is also about reacting to market conditions and some trades will close earlier than originally intended and some trades will be pro-longed. I trade with FULL flexibility within my TRADING PLAN guidelines.\r\n\r\nIn addition to set-ups, I also provide some market insights and commentaries. This may come via email or via TWITTER as the example below: -\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/TWEET-FOR-WHAT-U-GET.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7834\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/TWEET-FOR-WHAT-U-GET.png\" alt=\"TWEET FOR - WHAT U GET\" width=\"272\" height=\"304\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nEach weekend, in addition to the commentary and insights that you receive from time to time during the week, as a subscriber you receive a complete version of the WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU blog via PDF as well as the on-line version in the secure \"subscribers only area\" of my website. The exclusive subscriber version contains more information than the FREE NEWSLETTER version.\r\n\r\nIn the subscribers only area, there are pages of Forex background educational pages covering chart analysis, candlestick patterns and many trade style articles that support you as a Forex Trader. Also in this area is the history of the PREMIUM SERVICE covering its trading history.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>I try to be different than other \"Signal Services\".</li>\r\n 	<li>I am NOT perfect; I am a human, NOT a robot.</li>\r\n 	<li>I am a trader as well as a trainer.</li>\r\n 	<li>My trades are transparent and I have losses like every trader has.</li>\r\n 	<li>My goal is to generate 10,000 pips per year.</li>\r\n 	<li>Unless I am achieving a ratio of 75% profitable trades and 25% loss making trades as a minimum, I am NOT happy with my performance.</li>\r\n 	<li>I work long hours and I eat and breathe the Forex market.</li>\r\n 	<li>As a subscriber, I tell you what I am doing and when I am doing it. It is up to you if you follow, copy or do your own thing.</li>\r\n 	<li>If you have any question regarding a PREMIUM SERVICE subscription, please contact me at: - premium service@weeklyfxdrivethru.com</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<div>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>6. THE PREMIUM SERVICE –  Completed Annual Results 2014, 2015 and 2016:</strong>\r\n\r\nTo give a complete view of the returns possible using the PREMIUM SERVICE, the annual performances below, include costs to trade that I am involved with, such as the costs to place a trade with your broker and the annual PREMIUM SERVICE subscription fees.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">PLEASE NOTE</span>: - The returns shown below are based off trading just single lots in each trading style/category. Obviously, if are able to trade two lot position sizes the gross returns would be double and the costs to trade also double. RISK MANAGEMENT also comes into play when position sizes increase and should you require help or guidance on this subject please contact me. In addition, remember, the spread sheets below show a net position including an annual subscription to the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div>\r\n\r\n<strong>2016 COMPLETE:\r\n</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-8831\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/2016-PREM-SERVICE-COMPLETE-976x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"976\" height=\"1024\" />\r\n</strong>\r\n<div>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Looking specifically at 2016 above:</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Let\'s assume that you are a single mini lot trader of ALL trades that were suggested.</p>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">You would have made 677 trades\r\nCost $677.00\r\nGross Income from the 677 trades = $13,575.00\r\nLess your cost to trade of $677.00 = Net income of $12,898.00\r\nLess your PREMIUM SERVICE subscription of $ 940.00* = <strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">$11,958.00</span>\r\n</strong>(*CAD$ equivalent)</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">From your investment of $677 you could make $11,958.00\r\nEverything is published there are no secrets.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">You just have to work at your screens as much as I do to be around for every trade set up\r\nWhere else can you get such a return on capital?</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">If you were able to trade 2 x mini lots your net return could be:-\r\n($113,575.00 x 2 = $27,150.00 - (677 x 2 ) $1,354 = $25,796.00\r\nLess your PREMIUM SERVICE subscription of $940.00 = <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>$24,856.00</strong></span></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">You just to have to ensure that you have a broker account that can accommodate the risks involved to trade at these trade sizes relevant to the income goals that you have set yourself.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">But you must take note that at any one time there can be as many as 30 live trades in operation with variable STOP LOSS RISKS attached to them. You need to consider the potential risks associated and fund your account accordingly to accommodate the flexibility that is required.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">If you do not do this you will potentially expose yourself to margin calls from your broker.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">As long as you trade with real and effective RISK MANAGEMENT and POSITION SIZING principles\r\nin place and trade in accordance with your TRADING PLAN, it is possible to make money part of full-time from Forex Trading.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">At ALL times you need TRADING DISCIPLINE in place to ensure longevity in trading. This is key and fundamental to success.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>PLEASE NOTE:</strong>\r\nYou must ensure that with any trading account  you have a sufficient balance to accommodate the risks involved in trading.\r\nThis is crucial to your trading success and you should not manage an account in which you trade too large a position size as this will only result in margin calls from your broker.\r\nWhich, in my opinion is a 100% recipe for a complete and utter disaster.\r\nYou must trade and operate an account sufficient to cope with the swings that you get with trading from profit to loss, as mentioned earlier\r\ntrading Forex involves RISK and this must be managed.\r\nIf you have questions on this subject please contact me at premiumservice@weeklyfxdrivethru.com\r\nI am here to help.</p>\r\n<strong>2015 COMPLETE:</strong>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/2015-PS-PERF.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-8625\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/2015-PS-PERF-991x1024.png\" alt=\"2015-ps-perf\" width=\"991\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<div>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>2014 COMPLETE:</strong></p>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/2014-PS-PREF.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-8624\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/2014-PS-PREF-994x1024.png\" alt=\"2014-ps-pref\" width=\"994\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<strong>7. What about this year\'s performance 2017?</strong>\r\n\r\nData will start to appear here monthly from the end of Q1.\r\n<div>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>8. What are your benefits and costs of being a subscriber to the PREMIUM SERVICE?</strong>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\nThere will be 40 weekly blogs / issues per year. I will not write in the summer and over Christmas periods. There will be an unlimited amount of Twitter follow-ups to the exclusive subscribers on a Twitter secure feed during the week to review and act upon “FLASH, RADAR, FUNDAMENTAL and POSITION trades” and issues emanating from previous blogs.\r\n\r\n<strong>SUBSCRIPTION FEATURES and BENEFITS:</strong><u>\r\n</u>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>3 options on subscription periods.</li>\r\n 	<li>100% access to the PREMIUM SERVICE area of my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a></li>\r\n 	<li>A dedicated exclusive twitter feed @ThePremService.</li>\r\n 	<li>All trade set-ups communicated via Twitter and RADAR, FUNDAMENTAL and POSITION trades additionally via email.</li>\r\n 	<li>The full and complete version of The WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU delivered weekly via an emailed PDF, and, viewable on line inside the PREMIUM SERVICE secure section of <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a></li>\r\n 	<li>My thoughts and comments on market conditions via twitter and/or email.</li>\r\n 	<li>WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU - LIVE - weekly \"Live Webinars\" every at Monday at 5:30PM ETST.  These are market overview related broadcasts looking into the week ahead.</li>\r\n 	<li>Option to request individual / bespoke \"one-on-one coaching\".</li>\r\n 	<li>PLATINUM MEMBERS (Annual subscribers - the highest level of subscription), will receive additional benefits over and above the other subscriber levels, such as optional monthly REVIEW MEETINGS.</li>\r\n 	<li>In addition ALL existing PLATINUM MEMBERS (annual subscribers) receive a 20% discount off their annual renewal subscription when they re-subscribe.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<h4>SUBSCRIPTION OPTIONS:</h4>\r\n<div class=\"clearfix\" style=\"margin-bottom: 15px;\">\r\n<div class=\"one-half first\">\r\n<div class=\"subscription\">\r\n<p class=\"length\">PLATINUM MEMBER:\r\nANNUAL (40 WEEK) SUBSCRIPTION: CAD$2,500.00\r\n(this equates to CAD$62.50 per week)</p>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"one-half\">\r\n<div class=\"subscription\">\r\n<p class=\"length\">GOLD MEMBER:\r\n6 Months (20 WEEKS) SUBSCRIPTION: CAD$1,500.00\r\n(this equates to CAD$75.00 per week)</p>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"clearfix\" style=\"margin-bottom: 15px;\">\r\n<div class=\"one-half first\">\r\n<div class=\"subscription\">\r\n<p class=\"length\">GOLD MEMBER:\r\n3 Months (10 WEEKS) SUBSCRIPTION: CAD$1,000.00\r\n(this equates to CAD$100.00 per week)</p>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n(All Fees are quoted in CAD$)\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>9. If I am interested and I want to subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE what do I do next?</strong>\r\n\r\nIf you are happy with all the above and want to move forward to the next stage, here is what you do: -\r\n\r\nSubscribing to the PREMIUM SERVICE takes literally just 5 minutes maximum. On my welcome page go to SUBSCRIBE HERE at the top of the page to sign up. Choose the level of subscription that you want and period that you want to subscribe for.  It\'s very fast, easy and convenient.\r\n\r\nIn addition you should also check the PROMOTION tab at the top of this page as well, as from time to time they can be extremely attractive.\r\n\r\nI hope that you will find the argument to sign up and subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE compelling and look forward to welcoming you onboard soon.\r\n\r\nIf you have any questions at all or want additional information about anything to do with the PREMIUM SERVICE please email me at: - premiumservice@weeklyfxdrivethru.com\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>10. FX BROKERS and additional FOREX trading support:</strong>\r\n\r\nOn my landing page there are a number of banners from brokers and equipment suppliers. These are my recommended relationships. Clicking on their banners establishes a link between the PREMIUM SERVICE (Me), the broker and you. As an educator one of my key objectives is to help and guide as best I can all traders to improve their consistency and profitability through trading. My preferred brokers from time to time will offer special incentives for new clients and as clients introduced via the PREMIUM SERVICE an additional support level is added.\r\n\r\nIf you are looking to add a Forex broker, please click on the banners and explore the options. Alternatively, please feel free to contact me should you have any questions.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<div>\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\n7th January 2017\r\nhttp://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>DISCLAIMER:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nFLASH, RADAR, FUNDAMENTAL and POSITION  trade set-ups, “Tweets” and “Trade ideas” that are posted in my blogs or on Twitter are trades and set-ups that interest me. They are provided for training and informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as an offer, solicitation or recommendation of any specific security or investment strategy. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading Forex carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade any such leveraged products you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin, and seek advice from an independent financial adviser if you have any doubts.\r\n\r\n</div>','HISTORY & PERFORMANCE of the PREMIUM SERVICE','','publish','open','closed','','premium-service-2','','','2017-02-12 18:16:04','2017-02-12 23:16:04','',0,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?page_id=3012',0,'page','',0),(9125,1,'2017-02-18 15:13:29','2017-02-18 20:13:29','&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong> INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThings are now starting to take shape in 2017, I am still in transition with trades and this will continue throughout Q1 but as things stand today the losses incurred in January are now almost gone as February has progressed.\r\n\r\nThe markets are still skittish towards whatever “THE DONALD” says, factual or not and despite some blow out U.S. data the USD is still somewhat on the back foot. My only thoughts to support this are; uncertainty about the TRUMP policies and the administration’s abilities to see them through and possibly the bulls**t that Yellen spouts time after time about all FOMC meetings “LIVE EVENTS”. We all know that she is ultra-dovish and she has strung along the markets for month after month to retain credibility, I think that now with such good undeniable data in front of her, it is time to walk the walk and not just talk the talk. Therefore, I hate to say this, but I think that the DXY will range until the March FED meeting… sorry to be the bearer of possible frustrating news.\r\n\r\nJanet Yellen’s testimony to both house committees last week was hawkish in both tone of comments and in the main with her answers to some tough, but mainly routine stupid questions that she was asked (Yes, you do not have to be the brightest button to get elected in the U.S. There are examples at every level!).\r\n\r\nLogically speaking and I know that one cannot apply logic to the Forex market, the USD (DXY) should have been blasting through towards 103.00. It reached a high of 101.72 on day two of Yellen’s testimony than started to fall back through 101.00 towards initial support at 99.77.\r\n\r\nAs stated earlier I do now think it\'s a walk the walk time for the FOMC.\r\n\r\nOther news during last week was as usual focused on the EUROZONE and BREXIT.\r\n\r\nI remain bearish on both. I do believe it will be a choppy affair moving forward. Every now and then we will see a dive lower in price. It all depends on what event triggers the move lower to see if there are buyers available that see a value in either EUR or the GBP at new lower levels. So far moves lower have found support at 1.0350 for the EUR/USD and just below 1.2000 in the GBP/USD. Whilst I think these levels will both the broken, normal price action at the moment is not having the impact to send prices lower. I had thought that Yellen’s testimony would have been an initial push but alas not.\r\n\r\nIf you are short like myself, you must be frugal and patient; managing your RISK at all times.\r\n\r\nUK and AUD jobs disappointed the markets when the numbers were dissected and analyzed in detail. Of annoyance to me was the Aussie jobs data. I was expecting a blowout number to take my AUD/NZD trades towards 1.0800. Thankfully I removed with the PREMIUM SERVICE a AUD/CAD long trade earlier in the day, so as not to have too much AUD exposure heading into the news. It was removed with $$$ on the table so at least that was something, given the fact it pulled back to around my initial entry point.\r\n\r\nPerhaps “being an ex Brit”, the strangest event last week for me was the astonishing speech given by ex UK Prime Minister Tony Blair on Bloomberg TV. It was quite bizarre; given his failings on WMD (Weapons of Mass Destruction) taking UK troops to their death in Iraq, his failings as a UN peace envoy in the Middle East, I wouldn’t say that the UK Population have him on the top of their Christmas Card lists. Tony Blair was so far up George W. Bush’s ar*e, he was solely responsible for Bush not being able to walk in a straight line!\r\n\r\nBack to the point…\r\n\r\nBasically, Tony Blair was saying that the UK could still avoid a BREXIT. At the 23rd hour, 59 minutes, 59.9 seconds through the process he now decides to speak out…why now?\r\n\r\nBlair is a career politician. He tried this ploy just after the BREXIT result came through. He was removed from the spotlight because the UK economic data continued to remain good and, in fact, following the devaluation of sterling in the currency markets in some areas it improved. He waited for the wash through of data to occur and on the day that UK Retail Sales dipped after the Christmas rush and increasing prices hitting households following currency re-valuations and small inflation signs, he decided now was the time.\r\n\r\nHe wants another referendum based upon the terms of the BREXIT. This is never going to happen, because the EUROPEAN UNION has made it clear that A50 needs to be triggered first before any BREXIT negotiations can begin. This makes sense. Therefore a referendum based on the “Blair” idea, is a non-runner.\r\n\r\nBlair is therefore merely an ex failed politician, given airtime because he is an ex. Prime Minister, his speech is just an unnecessary distraction given current UK Prime Minister’s Theresa May’s BREXIT timetable, which if still on schedule means that A50 could be triggered as early as March 9<sup>th</sup>.\r\n\r\nIf Blair believes that people will rebel en mass and demand a wait and hold and then a re-vote on EU membership he must be smoking something illegal in my eyes given the timetable of events.\r\n\r\nIt was as bizarre a media event as “THE DONALD’S” press conference the day earlier last week.\r\n\r\nMore…\r\n\r\nI have mentioned for the past two weeks that I was going to focus in this week’s blog about my transition trades as I adapt to these changing markets. I am not ready. This will appear when I have the total plan in place.\r\n\r\nI tried looking for factual follow-ups on FXCM, but I drew a blank, maybe I was just not looking in the right places. I, like a lot of people are fascinated to see did FXCM have the equivalent of a “run on the bank” worldwide, after the U.S. termination?\r\n\r\nStill some more…\r\n\r\nTHE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU – LIVE webinars.\r\n\r\nNow up to #5 this Monday. The software still gives me the creeps at times but I am now more comfortable with the content and the time 30-35 minutes in length. This is long enough for me and probably too long for you guys with my Liverpool accent.\r\n\r\n#5 is on Monday 20th February at 5:30PM\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>To attend live - you need Google Chrome as a browser.</li>\r\n 	<li>You cannot view on smart phones or tablets, only Laptops and Desktops.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThe “LIVE WEBINAR” link is below: -\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://bit.ly/drivethru-live\">http://bit.ly/drivethru-live</a>\r\n\r\nIf you cannot listen live you can check out my You Tube channel, <em>Scott Pickering</em> <em>Weekly FX Drive Thru</em> for a freshly posted copy of the webinar, usually, within a couple of hours of its completion.\r\n\r\nHere is the link for my you tube channel, when I get too 100 subscribers (if I get there) I can have my own personalized shortened link. If you like the style of my webinar, please subscribe. The benefits are that as soon as a new webinar is posted you are emailed.: -\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCV-9VDnNkHjTPBzKqLqCGJw/videos\">https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCV-9VDnNkHjTPBzKqLqCGJw/videos</a>\r\n\r\nFinally, in this section…\r\n\r\nIf you would like to be in the monthly draw to win a “FREE 10-WEEK SUBSCRIPTION” to the PREMIUM SERVICE, valued at CAD$1,000.00, all you have to do is subscribe to receive this FREE NEWSLETTER on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> On my welcome page just below my cube logo is where you complete your subscription.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE – LOOKING FORWARD:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong><u>NOTE:</u></strong> This year, 2017, I am not going to look backwards in this section only forwards. News items / points of interest from the prior week will be covered in the introduction.\r\n\r\n<u>ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/ECON-DATA-19022017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-9119\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/ECON-DATA-19022017.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"568\" height=\"425\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>MY THOUGHTS ON THE WEEK AHEAD:</u>\r\n\r\nJust a couple of items catch my eye this week: -\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>USD: FOMC Meeting Minutes – these should be hawkish. Given the statement at the time plus Janet Yellen’s recent testimony to both houses re the “Humphrey Hawkins”.As long as we can start to see a consistency this should be good for both market confidence and sentiment. It is the one step forwards two steps back approach that has often confused and created uncertainty. The markets are like 4-year-old children; small words, clear, no grey just black and white.</li>\r\n 	<li>AUD: I am looking for consistency and confirmations of policy from the RBA. Philip Lowe (Governor) speaks twice this week and we also have the release of the minutes from the last RBA meeting.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nAs always bear in mind it has been news rather than economic data moving the markets so check twitter for tweets from “THE DONALD” and be aware of the BREXIT and EUROZONE possibility to deliver geopolitical news at any time totally unannounced.\r\n\r\n<u>USD MAJORS – “IMMEDIATE” SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE with TREND:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/TCHART-19022017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-9120\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/TCHART-19022017.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"512\" height=\"405\" /></a>\r\n\r\nNo charts this week, I am travelling and do not have the technology.\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE?</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber, fee based trade set-up option for Forex traders regardless of experience or background. I provide traders suggested trades, and some market commentary related to open trades or factors within the overall market that have my interest.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nAdditional information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\nIf you would like to watch/listen to a c.30-minute PREMIUM SERVICE webinar to learn more about what I can do to help you with your trading. Then click the link below and register. It is FREE… it costs nothing to listen.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://www.onlinemeetingnow.com/register/?id=wrklqabmy3\">http://www.onlinemeetingnow.com/register/?id=wrklqabmy3</a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong>PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\nThe market is hard to read and even harder to follow. The obvious is no longer the obvious.\r\n\r\nIt is extremely difficult to allow for “THE DONALD FACTOR” it gives us uncertainty. There was a time blow out U.S. data would give the DXY a two or three day move. We are lucky to see two or three hours at the moment.\r\n\r\nI hear the frustrations. If you are coming unstuck, walk away for a few days.\r\n\r\nFundamentally, I believe I am positioned the correct way and Yellen’s “Humphrey Hawkins” testimony gave me increased confidence in my set ups. The fact is I need wide stops and smaller position sizes or I could add $250,000 to my accounts and trade more normal sizes. I can tell you right now, the latter is NOT going to happen.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nPainful as it is, I have nothing else that I can say. It is what it is, we have a painful transition government in place in Washington and at the same time we have a UK BREXIT, GREECE, FRANCE, HOLLAND and GERMANY all with issues that are unknown quantities. On top of this we have North Korea, the Middle East and OPEC all ready to steal the limelight at a moment’s notice.\r\n\r\nIf “THE DONALD FACTOR” was not enough to contend with add the rest from the prior paragraph and we have a lot overhead to consider.\r\n\r\nBack to trading…\r\n\r\nI am very, very slowly changing my strategy. I have given myself until the end of Q1 to have it in play and my CORE POSITIONS established. This will be a slow process and at the same time I want to exit old trades at the best prices available.\r\n\r\nThe EUR/CHF (FUN466) is a trade I would like to exit at 1.0750 or higher but right now the chances of that level being seen looks like a dream.\r\n\r\nOver the past week, we banked $$$ and established a few more positions. I am seeing a lot of opportunities to add, but, like many of you from what I hear I am reluctant to do so until I see something to hang my hat on so to speak. It is still uncertain.\r\n\r\nMany thanks for the continued support.\r\n\r\n<u>MOVING FORWARD:</u>\r\n\r\nWe are still operating in fairly tight ranges although, the price movements are volatile. I do see green shoots of the emphasis and sentiment is trying to change, but as soon as I see these they are shot down in flames more often than not.\r\n\r\nThe following pairs are still in my thoughts and I have entries to both initiate and add with some of these but I want direction: -\r\n\r\nEUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, EUR/JPY, EUR/GBP and GBP/CHF. Plus, the GBP cross rates; GBP/CAD, GBP/AUD and GBP/NZD and EUR cross rates; EUR/NZD, EUR/CAD and EUR/NZD.\r\n\r\n<u>CORE TRADES:</u>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>AUD/NZD: – I am going to exit this CORE POSITION around 1.0800 – 1.1100. My goal will be to place protected stops on whatever trades I have open when the 1.0800 level is passed.</li>\r\n 	<li>EUR/NZD: - I am holding these trades. This currency pair is a straight on RISK ON – RISK OFF trade and I think that as it is such a small position and risk, it is worth just sitting in at the moment. This pair can move 400 pips a day no problem when it gets its mojo on.</li>\r\n 	<li>EUR/USD and USD/CHF: - Core positions now being established and I am looking to add even more trades as the month progresses.The bigger picture is that despite encouraging inflation data aside, the EUROZONE is facing major / serious headwinds ahead.</li>\r\n 	<li>GBP/USD: - The BREXIT effect is starting to come through as economic data is washed through the economic averages. I still believe that after the CORE BREXIT details are decided upon the UK economy will start to stabilize, but prior to this, which could be up to a year away the uncertainty factor will dominate.There will be some great GBP long trades in the next 12 months. There will be greater opportunities long GBP than maybe those that remain on the short side.<strong> </strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>PREMIUM SERVICE - TRADES REVIEW<strong>:</strong></u>\r\n\r\nCURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE - LIVE TRADES:\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/LIVE-TRADES-19022017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-9122\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/LIVE-TRADES-19022017.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"492\" height=\"458\" /></a>\r\nCURRENT PREMIUM SERVICE – LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/LIMIT-ORDERS-19022017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-9121\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/LIMIT-ORDERS-19022017.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"455\" height=\"423\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE SOAPBOX:</strong><strong> </strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>THE FED HAS “TALKED THE TALK”\r\n</strong><strong>NOW IT’S TIME TO “WALK THAT WALK”</strong></p>\r\nRegular readers and followers will know that over recent years following Bernanke, I have at times been critical of Janet Yellen’s chair at the FED.\r\n\r\nShe is “ultra-dovish” and in my eyes, she always will be. As I have written on many occasions it is much easier and somewhat safer to be a DOVE rather than a HAWK. This is fine when an economy is in poor shape and requires support.\r\n\r\nHowever, in transition, a central bank does NOT want to get behind the various economic curves. It is a science beyond my pay grade knowing when to press the button to move. As a trader, I take a simple view based upon data sentiment over a 3-month period.\r\n\r\nI know that Central Bank’s operate in much larger time-scales, but this is in respect to longer-term goals, perspectives based upon their mandates set out by their governments. Central Bank governors, do have huge power, some of them also have huge egos to match the power but we should not lose sight of the fact that they are employed to manage and maintain economic stability, remove uncertainty and provide the markets with a clear monetary policy moving forward based upon key success factors upon which they are measured.\r\n\r\nI can go deeper but the nuts and bolts of the job are quite straightforward. Policy, stability, no uncertainties, clear projections and no bullsh*t. Sadly the bullsh*t is part of the job and we can all smell it, at times it is an insult to our intelligence that central bankers believe that they can pull the wool over our eyes.\r\n\r\nBack to the FED…\r\n\r\nFor months, the U.S. economic data has been generally good, the odd blip here and there but really good overall. If we are to believe the unemployment data, the U.S. is almost at full employment. Inflation had started to murmur ahead of “THE DONALDS” arrival in the White House.\r\n\r\nFor the past two years, the FED have only raised rates once a year in December 2015 and 2016. In 2016 the infamous “Dot plots” were signaling two, maybe three rate hikes, but we only saw a single rise in December.\r\n\r\nIn December 2016, the FED “dot plots” for 2017 showed their economic projections signaling 3 rate hikes in 2017. Within a month of the data release for 2017, the FED were down-playing three hikes to two or maybe just one!\r\n\r\nSince then we have had continual blow out numbers, jobs, confidence, sentiment, sales etc. I asked myself what the feck is going on at the FED what the hell are they looking at? Are they going to use the BREXIT or EUROZONE headwinds as an excuse not to raise? Will they find other geopolitical news to promote a hold back?\r\n\r\nWith such good data and Ben Bernanke’s last words in my ears “The FED will now revert to normalization in the markets” had Janet Yellen showed any hesitance at all in acknowledging bloody good data, I was going to exit all USD long positions and only trade cross rates for the remainder of 2017.\r\n\r\nAs we know… she delivered.\r\n\r\nBut this is only part one of the story.\r\n\r\nOK, we get it every FED/FOMC meeting is LIVE. But it’s now about time to lead the markets, stay ahead of the curve and deliver rather than keep stringing the markets along for a year with a rate hike at the last possible moment which looks more like saving face than anything else.\r\n\r\nCredibility is a vital trait for a Central Bank to have. Without market credibility, they are not taken seriously. Look at the BOJ for example. The SNB is getting the same way Thomas Jordan needs to show muscle.\r\n\r\nDo I think that the FED is losing credibility?\r\n\r\nI do think it’s come close on occasion but we are now at limits never seen before, the data is so good. We have a TRUMP administration hell bent on a spend, spend, spend campaign which should produce inflation over the next 12-18 months. The FED needs to be ahead of the curve.\r\n\r\nWill Yellen deliver a rate hike on March 15<sup>th</sup> 2017?\r\n\r\nIf she does, it places 3 x rate hikes on the table for this year and shows that there is central bank confidence in the U.S. economy. At the moment, the neigh-sayers have had the opportunity to allow doom and gloom to hang over events by stating that the FED is looking at something that we cannot see. A rate rise removes this.\r\n\r\nFrom a trading perspective, a FED rate hike should initiate the fact that two more are on the way and that central bank monetary policy divergence is now in place across the major central banks.\r\n\r\nThis gives us a USD long trade. A sell the rips approach or buy the dips approach to the USD. Combine this with the EUROZONE headwinds and BREXIT uncertainties and we have parity calls in place for the single currency and sub 1.2000 for the cable.\r\n\r\nI know that I am early to the party with this article but the testimony last week has really focused my mind and broadened my awareness and horizons for my TRADE PLAN beyond Q1.\r\n\r\nIt sounds simple. But trading will still be difficult, although we should have direction. Remember, nothing goes in a straight line it will be choppy inside new ranges until they are broken and new ranges established. I do see us stepping lower in EUR and GBP currencies and the DXY moving above 103.00 and maybe with severe traction looking at the 115.00 –120.00 area once again.\r\n\r\nThe one currency pair that I am not so sure how it will react is the USD/JPY. That is for another day.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nTake care, have a great trading week.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #128 PREMIUM SERVICE\r\nDATE: 19th February 2017.','THE FED HAS “TALKED THE TALK”  NOW, IT’S TIME TO “WALK THAT WALK”','','inherit','closed','closed','','9123-revision-v1','','','2017-02-18 15:13:29','2017-02-18 20:13:29','',9123,'http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/9123-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(9126,1,'2017-02-18 15:32:06','2017-02-18 20:32:06','&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong><strong> </strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThings are now starting to take shape in 2017, I am still in transition with trades and this will continue throughout Q1 but as things stand today the losses incurred in January are now almost gone as February has progressed.\r\n\r\nThe markets are still skittish towards whatever “THE DONALD” says, factual or not and despite some blow out U.S. data the USD is still somewhat on the back foot. My only thoughts to support this are; uncertainty about the TRUMP policies and the administration’s abilities to see them through and possibly the bulls**t that Yellen spouts time after time about all FOMC meetings “LIVE EVENTS”. We all know that she is ultra-dovish and she has strung along the markets for month after month to retain credibility, I think that now with such good undeniable data in front of her, it is time to walk the walk and not just talk the talk. Therefore, I hate to say this, but I think that the DXY will range until the March FED meeting… sorry to be the bearer of possible frustrating news.\r\n\r\nJanet Yellen’s testimony to both house committees last week was hawkish in both tone of comments and in the main with her answers to some tough, but mainly routine stupid questions that she was asked (Yes, you do not have to be the brightest button to get elected in the U.S. There are examples at every level!).\r\n\r\nLogically speaking and I know that one cannot apply logic to the Forex market, the USD (DXY) should have been blasting through towards 103.00. It reached a high of 101.72 on day two of Yellen’s testimony than started to fall back through 101.00 towards initial support at 99.77.\r\n\r\nAs stated earlier I do now think it\'s a walk the walk time for the FOMC.\r\n\r\nOther news during last week was as usual focused on the EUROZONE and BREXIT.\r\n\r\nI remain bearish on both. I do believe it will be a choppy affair moving forward. Every now and then we will see a dive lower in price. It all depends on what event triggers the move lower to see if there are buyers available that see a value in either EUR or the GBP at new lower levels. So far moves lower have found support at 1.0350 for the EUR/USD and just below 1.2000 in the GBP/USD. Whilst I think these levels will both the broken, normal price action at the moment is not having the impact to send prices lower. I had thought that Yellen’s testimony would have been an initial push but alas not.\r\n\r\nIf you are short like myself, you must be frugal and patient; managing your RISK at all times.\r\n\r\nUK and AUD jobs disappointed the markets when the numbers were dissected and analyzed in detail. Of annoyance to me was the Aussie jobs data. I was expecting a blowout number to take my AUD/NZD trades towards 1.0800. Thankfully I removed with the PREMIUM SERVICE a AUD/CAD long trade earlier in the day, so as not to have too much AUD exposure heading into the news. It was removed with $$$ on the table so at least that was something, given the fact it pulled back to around my initial entry point.\r\n\r\nPerhaps “being an ex Brit”, the strangest event last week for me was the astonishing speech given by ex UK Prime Minister Tony Blair on Bloomberg TV. It was quite bizarre; given his failings on WMD (Weapons of Mass Destruction) taking UK troops to their death in Iraq, his failings as a UN peace envoy in the Middle East, I wouldn’t say that the UK Population have him on the top of their Christmas Card lists. Tony Blair was so far up George W. Bush’s ar*e, he was solely responsible for Bush not being able to walk in a straight line!\r\n\r\nBack to the point…\r\n\r\nBasically, Tony Blair was saying that the UK could still avoid a BREXIT. At the 23rd hour, 59 minutes, 59.9 seconds through the process he now decides to speak out…why now?\r\n\r\nBlair is a career politician. He tried this ploy just after the BREXIT result came through. He was removed from the spotlight because the UK economic data continued to remain good and, in fact, following the devaluation of sterling in the currency markets in some areas it improved. He waited for the wash through of data to occur and on the day that UK Retail Sales dipped after the Christmas rush and increasing prices hitting households following currency re-valuations and small inflation signs, he decided now was the time.\r\n\r\nHe wants another referendum based upon the terms of the BREXIT. This is never going to happen, because the EUROPEAN UNION has made it clear that A50 needs to be triggered first before any BREXIT negotiations can begin. This makes sense. Therefore a referendum based on the “Blair” idea, is a non-runner.\r\n\r\nBlair is therefore merely an ex failed politician, given airtime because he is an ex. Prime Minister, his speech is just an unnecessary distraction given current UK Prime Minister’s Theresa May’s BREXIT timetable, which if still on schedule means that A50 could be triggered as early as March 9<sup>th</sup>.\r\n\r\nIf Blair believes that people will rebel en mass and demand a wait and hold and then a re-vote on EU membership he must be smoking something illegal in my eyes given the timetable of events.\r\n\r\nIt was as bizarre a media event as “THE DONALD’S” press conference the day earlier last week.\r\n\r\nMore…\r\n\r\nI have mentioned for the past two weeks that I was going to focus in this week’s blog about my transition trades as I adapt to these changing markets. I am not ready. This will appear when I have the total plan in place.\r\n\r\nI tried looking for factual follow-ups on FXCM, but I drew a blank, maybe I was just not looking in the right places. I, like a lot of people are fascinated to see did FXCM have the equivalent of a “run on the bank” worldwide, after the U.S. termination?\r\n\r\nStill some more…\r\n\r\nTHE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU – LIVE webinars.\r\n\r\nNow up to #5 this Monday. The software still gives me the creeps at times but I am now more comfortable with the content and the time 30-35 minutes in length. This is long enough for me and probably too long for you guys with my Liverpool accent.\r\n\r\n#5 is on Monday 20th February at 5:30PM\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>To attend live - you need Google Chrome as a browser.</li>\r\n 	<li>You cannot view on smart phones or tablets, only Laptops and Desktops.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThe “LIVE WEBINAR” link is below: -\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://bit.ly/drivethru-live\">http://bit.ly/drivethru-live</a>\r\n\r\nIf you cannot listen live you can check out my You Tube channel, <em>Scott Pickering</em> <em>Weekly FX Drive Thru</em> for a freshly posted copy of the webinar, usually, within a couple of hours of its completion.\r\n\r\nHere is the link for my you tube channel, when I get too 100 subscribers (if I get there) I can have my own personalized shortened link. If you like the style of my webinar, please subscribe. The benefits are that as soon as a new webinar is posted you are emailed.: -\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCV-9VDnNkHjTPBzKqLqCGJw/videos\">https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCV-9VDnNkHjTPBzKqLqCGJw/videos</a>\r\n\r\nFinally, in this section…\r\n\r\nIf you would like to be in the monthly draw to win a “FREE 10-WEEK SUBSCRIPTION” to the PREMIUM SERVICE, valued at CAD$1,000.00, all you have to do is subscribe to receive this FREE NEWSLETTER on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> On my welcome page just below my cube logo is where you complete your subscription.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE – LOOKING FORWARD:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong><u>NOTE:</u></strong> This year, 2017, I am not going to look backwards in this section only forwards. News items / points of interest from the prior week will be covered in the introduction.\r\n\r\n<u>ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/ECON-DATA-19022017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-9119\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/ECON-DATA-19022017.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"568\" height=\"425\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u>MY THOUGHTS ON THE WEEK AHEAD:</u>\r\n\r\nJust a couple of items catch my eye this week: -\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>USD: FOMC Meeting Minutes – these should be hawkish. Given the statement at the time plus Janet Yellen’s recent testimony to both houses re the “Humphrey Hawkins”.As long as we can start to see a consistency this should be good for both market confidence and sentiment. It is the one step forwards two steps back approach that has often confused and created uncertainty. The markets are like 4-year-old children; small words, clear, no grey just black and white.</li>\r\n 	<li>AUD: I am looking for consistency and confirmations of policy from the RBA. Philip Lowe (Governor) speaks twice this week and we also have the release of the minutes from the last RBA meeting.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nAs always bear in mind it has been news rather than economic data moving the markets so check twitter for tweets from “THE DONALD” and be aware of the BREXIT and EUROZONE possibility to deliver geopolitical news at any time totally unannounced.\r\n\r\n<u>USD MAJORS – “IMMEDIATE” SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE with TREND:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/TCHART-19022017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-9120\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/TCHART-19022017.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"512\" height=\"405\" /></a>\r\n\r\nNo charts this week, I am travelling and do not have the technology.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE?:</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber, fee based trade set-up option for Forex traders regardless of experience or background. I provide traders suggested trades, and some market commentary related to open trades or factors within the overall market that have my interest.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nAdditional information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\nIf you would like to watch/listen to a c.30-minute PREMIUM SERVICE webinar to learn more about what I can do to help you with your trading. Then click the link below and register. It is FREE… it costs nothing to listen.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://www.onlinemeetingnow.com/register/?id=wrklqabmy3\">http://www.onlinemeetingnow.com/register/?id=wrklqabmy3</a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>   4.  PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE SOAPBOX:</strong><strong> </strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>THE FED HAS “TALKED THE TALK”\r\n</strong><strong>NOW IT’S TIME TO “WALK THAT WALK”</strong></p>\r\nRegular readers and followers will know that over recent years following Bernanke, I have at times been critical of Janet Yellen’s chair at the FED\r\n\r\nShe is “ultra-dovish” and in my eyes, she always will be. As I have written on many occasions it is much easier and somewhat safer to be a DOVE rather than a HAWK. This is fine when an economy is in poor shape and requires support.\r\n\r\nHowever, in transition, a central bank does NOT want to get behind the various economic curves. It is a science beyond my pay grade knowing when to press the button to move. As a trader, I take a simple view based upon data sentiment over a 3-month period.\r\n\r\nI know that Central Bank’s operate in much larger time-scales, but this is in respect to longer-term goals, perspectives based upon their mandates set out by their governments. Central Bank governors, do have huge power, some of them also have huge egos to match the power but we should not lose sight of the fact that they are employed to manage and maintain economic stability, remove uncertainty and provide the markets with a clear monetary policy moving forward based upon key success factors upon which they are measured.\r\n\r\nI can go deeper but the nuts and bolts of the job are quite straightforward. Policy, stability, no uncertainties, clear projections and no bullsh*t. Sadly the bullsh*t is part of the job and we can all smell it, at times it is an insult to our intelligence that central bankers believe that they can pull the wool over our eyes.\r\n\r\nBack to the FED…\r\n\r\nFor months, the U.S. economic data has been generally good, the odd blip here and there but really good overall. If we are to believe the unemployment data, the U.S. is almost at full employment. Inflation had started to murmur ahead of “THE DONALDS” arrival in the White House.\r\n\r\nFor the past two years, the FED have only raised rates once a year in December 2015 and 2016. In 2016 the infamous “Dot plots” were signaling two, maybe three rate hikes, but we only saw a single rise in December.\r\n\r\nIn December 2016, the FED “dot plots” for 2017 showed their economic projections signaling 3 rate hikes in 2017. Within a month of the data release for 2017, the FED were down-playing three hikes to two or maybe just one!\r\n\r\nSince then we have had continual blow out numbers, jobs, confidence, sentiment, sales etc. I asked myself what the feck is going on at the FED what the hell are they looking at? Are they going to use the BREXIT or EUROZONE headwinds as an excuse not to raise? Will they find other geopolitical news to promote a hold back?\r\n\r\nWith such good data and Ben Bernanke’s last words in my ears “The FED will now revert to normalization in the markets” had Janet Yellen showed any hesitance at all in acknowledging bloody good data, I was going to exit all USD long positions and only trade cross rates for the remainder of 2017.\r\n\r\nAs we know… she delivered.\r\n\r\nBut this is only part one of the story.\r\n\r\nOK, we get it every FED/FOMC meeting is LIVE. But it’s now about time to lead the markets, stay ahead of the curve and deliver rather than keep stringing the markets along for a year with a rate hike at the last possible moment which looks more like saving face than anything else.\r\n\r\nCredibility is a vital trait for a Central Bank to have. Without market credibility, they are not taken seriously. Look at the BOJ for example. The SNB is getting the same way Thomas Jordan needs to show muscle.\r\n\r\nDo I think that the FED is losing credibility?\r\n\r\nI do think it’s come close on occasion but we are now at limits never seen before, the data is so good. We have a TRUMP administration hell bent on a spend, spend, spend campaign which should produce inflation over the next 12-18 months. The FED needs to be ahead of the curve.\r\n\r\nWill Yellen deliver a rate hike on March 15<sup>th</sup> 2017?\r\n\r\nIf she does, it places 3 x rate hikes on the table for this year and shows that there is central bank confidence in the U.S. economy. At the moment, the neigh-sayers have had the opportunity to allow doom and gloom to hang over events by stating that the FED is looking at something that we cannot see. A rate rise removes this.\r\n\r\nFrom a trading perspective, a FED rate hike should initiate the fact that two more are on the way and that central bank monetary policy divergence is now in place across the major central banks.\r\n\r\nThis gives us a USD long trade. A sell the rips approach or buy the dips approach to the USD. Combine this with the EUROZONE headwinds and BREXIT uncertainties and we have parity calls in place for the single currency and sub 1.2000 for the cable.\r\n\r\nI know that I am early to the party with this article but the testimony last week has really focused my mind and broadened my awareness and horizons for my TRADE PLAN beyond Q1.\r\n\r\nIt sounds simple. But trading will still be difficult, although we should have direction. Remember, nothing goes in a straight line it will be choppy inside new ranges until they are broken and new ranges established. I do see us stepping lower in EUR and GBP currencies and the DXY moving above 103.00 and maybe with severe traction looking at the 115.00 –120.00 area once again.\r\n\r\nThe one currency pair that I am not so sure how it will react is the USD/JPY. That is for another day.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nTake care, have a great trading week.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #232 FREE NEWSLETTER\r\nDATE: 19th February 2017.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','THE FED HAS “TALKED THE TALK”  NOW, IT’S TIME TO “WALK THAT WALK”','','publish','open','closed','','fed-talked-talk-now-time-walk-walk','','','2017-02-18 15:32:06','2017-02-18 20:32:06','',0,'http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?p=9126',0,'post','',0),(9128,1,'2017-02-18 15:31:02','2017-02-18 20:31:02','&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong><strong> </strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThings are now starting to take shape in 2017, I am still in transition with trades and this will continue throughout Q1 but as things stand today the losses incurred in January are now almost gone as February has progressed.\r\n\r\nThe markets are still skittish towards whatever “THE DONALD” says, factual or not and despite some blow out U.S. data the USD is still somewhat on the back foot. My only thoughts to support this are; uncertainty about the TRUMP policies and the administration’s abilities to see them through and possibly the bulls**t that Yellen spouts time after time about all FOMC meetings “LIVE EVENTS”. We all know that she is ultra-dovish and she has strung along the markets for month after month to retain credibility, I think that now with such good undeniable data in front of her, it is time to walk the walk and not just talk the talk. Therefore, I hate to say this, but I think that the DXY will range until the March FED meeting… sorry to be the bearer of possible frustrating news.\r\n\r\nJanet Yellen’s testimony to both house committees last week was hawkish in both tone of comments and in the main with her answers to some tough, but mainly routine stupid questions that she was asked (Yes, you do not have to be the brightest button to get elected in the U.S. There are examples at every level!).\r\n\r\nLogically speaking and I know that one cannot apply logic to the Forex market, the USD (DXY) should have been blasting through towards 103.00. It reached a high of 101.72 on day two of Yellen’s testimony than started to fall back through 101.00 towards initial support at 99.77.\r\n\r\nAs stated earlier I do now think it\'s a walk the walk time for the FOMC.\r\n\r\nOther news during last week was as usual focused on the EUROZONE and BREXIT.\r\n\r\nI remain bearish on both. I do believe it will be a choppy affair moving forward. Every now and then we will see a dive lower in price. It all depends on what event triggers the move lower to see if there are buyers available that see a value in either EUR or the GBP at new lower levels. So far moves lower have found support at 1.0350 for the EUR/USD and just below 1.2000 in the GBP/USD. Whilst I think these levels will both the broken, normal price action at the moment is not having the impact to send prices lower. I had thought that Yellen’s testimony would have been an initial push but alas not.\r\n\r\nIf you are short like myself, you must be frugal and patient; managing your RISK at all times.\r\n\r\nUK and AUD jobs disappointed the markets when the numbers were dissected and analyzed in detail. Of annoyance to me was the Aussie jobs data. I was expecting a blowout number to take my AUD/NZD trades towards 1.0800. Thankfully I removed with the PREMIUM SERVICE a AUD/CAD long trade earlier in the day, so as not to have too much AUD exposure heading into the news. It was removed with $$$ on the table so at least that was something, given the fact it pulled back to around my initial entry point.\r\n\r\nPerhaps “being an ex Brit”, the strangest event last week for me was the astonishing speech given by ex UK Prime Minister Tony Blair on Bloomberg TV. It was quite bizarre; given his failings on WMD (Weapons of Mass Destruction) taking UK troops to their death in Iraq, his failings as a UN peace envoy in the Middle East, I wouldn’t say that the UK Population have him on the top of their Christmas Card lists. Tony Blair was so far up George W. Bush’s ar*e, he was solely responsible for Bush not being able to walk in a straight line!\r\n\r\nBack to the point…\r\n\r\nBasically, Tony Blair was saying that the UK could still avoid a BREXIT. At the 23rd hour, 59 minutes, 59.9 seconds through the process he now decides to speak out…why now?\r\n\r\nBlair is a career politician. He tried this ploy just after the BREXIT result came through. He was removed from the spotlight because the UK economic data continued to remain good and, in fact, following the devaluation of sterling in the currency markets in some areas it improved. He waited for the wash through of data to occur and on the day that UK Retail Sales dipped after the Christmas rush and increasing prices hitting households following currency re-valuations and small inflation signs, he decided now was the time.\r\n\r\nHe wants another referendum based upon the terms of the BREXIT. This is never going to happen, because the EUROPEAN UNION has made it clear that A50 needs to be triggered first before any BREXIT negotiations can begin. This makes sense. Therefore a referendum based on the “Blair” idea, is a non-runner.\r\n\r\nBlair is therefore merely an ex failed politician, given airtime because he is an ex. Prime Minister, his speech is just an unnecessary distraction given current UK Prime Minister’s Theresa May’s BREXIT timetable, which if still on schedule means that A50 could be triggered as early as March 9<sup>th</sup>.\r\n\r\nIf Blair believes that people will rebel en mass and demand a wait and hold and then a re-vote on EU membership he must be smoking something illegal in my eyes given the timetable of events.\r\n\r\nIt was as bizarre a media event as “THE DONALD’S” press conference the day earlier last week.\r\n\r\nMore…\r\n\r\nI have mentioned for the past two weeks that I was going to focus in this week’s blog about my transition trades as I adapt to these changing markets. I am not ready. This will appear when I have the total plan in place.\r\n\r\nI tried looking for factual follow-ups on FXCM, but I drew a blank, maybe I was just not looking in the right places. I, like a lot of people are fascinated to see did FXCM have the equivalent of a “run on the bank” worldwide, after the U.S. termination?\r\n\r\nStill some more…\r\n\r\nTHE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU – LIVE webinars.\r\n\r\nNow up to #5 this Monday. The software still gives me the creeps at times but I am now more comfortable with the content and the time 30-35 minutes in length. This is long enough for me and probably too long for you guys with my Liverpool accent.\r\n\r\n#5 is on Monday 20th February at 5:30PM\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>To attend live - you need Google Chrome as a browser.</li>\r\n 	<li>You cannot view on smart phones or tablets, only Laptops and Desktops.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThe “LIVE WEBINAR” link is below: -\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://bit.ly/drivethru-live\">http://bit.ly/drivethru-live</a>\r\n\r\nIf you cannot listen live you can check out my You Tube channel, <em>Scott Pickering</em> <em>Weekly FX Drive Thru</em> for a freshly posted copy of the webinar, usually, within a couple of hours of its completion.\r\n\r\nHere is the link for my you tube channel, when I get too 100 subscribers (if I get there) I can have my own personalized shortened link. If you like the style of my webinar, please subscribe. The benefits are that as soon as a new webinar is posted you are emailed.: -\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCV-9VDnNkHjTPBzKqLqCGJw/videos\">https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCV-9VDnNkHjTPBzKqLqCGJw/videos</a>\r\n\r\nFinally, in this section…\r\n\r\nIf you would like to be in the monthly draw to win a “FREE 10-WEEK SUBSCRIPTION” to the PREMIUM SERVICE, valued at CAD$1,000.00, all you have to do is subscribe to receive this FREE NEWSLETTER on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> On my welcome page just below my cube logo is where you complete your subscription.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE – LOOKING FORWARD:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong><u>NOTE:</u></strong> This year, 2017, I am not going to look backwards in this section only forwards. News items / points of interest from the prior week will be covered in the introduction.\r\n\r\n<u>ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/ECON-DATA-19022017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-9119\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/ECON-DATA-19022017.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"568\" height=\"425\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u>MY THOUGHTS ON THE WEEK AHEAD:</u>\r\n\r\nJust a couple of items catch my eye this week: -\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>USD: FOMC Meeting Minutes – these should be hawkish. Given the statement at the time plus Janet Yellen’s recent testimony to both houses re the “Humphrey Hawkins”.As long as we can start to see a consistency this should be good for both market confidence and sentiment. It is the one step forwards two steps back approach that has often confused and created uncertainty. The markets are like 4-year-old children; small words, clear, no grey just black and white.</li>\r\n 	<li>AUD: I am looking for consistency and confirmations of policy from the RBA. Philip Lowe (Governor) speaks twice this week and we also have the release of the minutes from the last RBA meeting.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nAs always bear in mind it has been news rather than economic data moving the markets so check twitter for tweets from “THE DONALD” and be aware of the BREXIT and EUROZONE possibility to deliver geopolitical news at any time totally unannounced.\r\n\r\n<u>USD MAJORS – “IMMEDIATE” SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE with TREND:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/TCHART-19022017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-9120\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/TCHART-19022017.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"512\" height=\"405\" /></a>\r\n\r\nNo charts this week, I am travelling and do not have the technology.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE?:</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber, fee based trade set-up option for Forex traders regardless of experience or background. I provide traders suggested trades, and some market commentary related to open trades or factors within the overall market that have my interest.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nAdditional information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\nIf you would like to watch/listen to a c.30-minute PREMIUM SERVICE webinar to learn more about what I can do to help you with your trading. Then click the link below and register. It is FREE… it costs nothing to listen.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://www.onlinemeetingnow.com/register/?id=wrklqabmy3\">http://www.onlinemeetingnow.com/register/?id=wrklqabmy3\r\n\r\n</a>\r\n\r\n<strong>   4.  PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE SOAPBOX:</strong><strong> </strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>THE FED HAS “TALKED THE TALK”\r\n</strong><strong>NOW IT’S TIME TO “WALK THAT WALK”</strong></p>\r\nRegular readers and followers will know that over recent years following Bernanke, I have at times been critical of Janet Yellen’s chair at the FED\r\n\r\nShe is “ultra-dovish” and in my eyes, she always will be. As I have written on many occasions it is much easier and somewhat safer to be a DOVE rather than a HAWK. This is fine when an economy is in poor shape and requires support.\r\n\r\nHowever, in transition, a central bank does NOT want to get behind the various economic curves. It is a science beyond my pay grade knowing when to press the button to move. As a trader, I take a simple view based upon data sentiment over a 3-month period.\r\n\r\nI know that Central Bank’s operate in much larger time-scales, but this is in respect to longer-term goals, perspectives based upon their mandates set out by their governments. Central Bank governors, do have huge power, some of them also have huge egos to match the power but we should not lose sight of the fact that they are employed to manage and maintain economic stability, remove uncertainty and provide the markets with a clear monetary policy moving forward based upon key success factors upon which they are measured.\r\n\r\nI can go deeper but the nuts and bolts of the job are quite straightforward. Policy, stability, no uncertainties, clear projections and no bullsh*t. Sadly the bullsh*t is part of the job and we can all smell it, at times it is an insult to our intelligence that central bankers believe that they can pull the wool over our eyes.\r\n\r\nBack to the FED…\r\n\r\nFor months, the U.S. economic data has been generally good, the odd blip here and there but really good overall. If we are to believe the unemployment data, the U.S. is almost at full employment. Inflation had started to murmur ahead of “THE DONALDS” arrival in the White House.\r\n\r\nFor the past two years, the FED have only raised rates once a year in December 2015 and 2016. In 2016 the infamous “Dot plots” were signaling two, maybe three rate hikes, but we only saw a single rise in December.\r\n\r\nIn December 2016, the FED “dot plots” for 2017 showed their economic projections signaling 3 rate hikes in 2017. Within a month of the data release for 2017, the FED were down-playing three hikes to two or maybe just one!\r\n\r\nSince then we have had continual blow out numbers, jobs, confidence, sentiment, sales etc. I asked myself what the feck is going on at the FED what the hell are they looking at? Are they going to use the BREXIT or EUROZONE headwinds as an excuse not to raise? Will they find other geopolitical news to promote a hold back?\r\n\r\nWith such good data and Ben Bernanke’s last words in my ears “The FED will now revert to normalization in the markets” had Janet Yellen showed any hesitance at all in acknowledging bloody good data, I was going to exit all USD long positions and only trade cross rates for the remainder of 2017.\r\n\r\nAs we know… she delivered.\r\n\r\nBut this is only part one of the story.\r\n\r\nOK, we get it every FED/FOMC meeting is LIVE. But it’s now about time to lead the markets, stay ahead of the curve and deliver rather than keep stringing the markets along for a year with a rate hike at the last possible moment which looks more like saving face than anything else.\r\n\r\nCredibility is a vital trait for a Central Bank to have. Without market credibility, they are not taken seriously. Look at the BOJ for example. The SNB is getting the same way Thomas Jordan needs to show muscle.\r\n\r\nDo I think that the FED is losing credibility?\r\n\r\nI do think it’s come close on occasion but we are now at limits never seen before, the data is so good. We have a TRUMP administration hell bent on a spend, spend, spend campaign which should produce inflation over the next 12-18 months. The FED needs to be ahead of the curve.\r\n\r\nWill Yellen deliver a rate hike on March 15<sup>th</sup> 2017?\r\n\r\nIf she does, it places 3 x rate hikes on the table for this year and shows that there is central bank confidence in the U.S. economy. At the moment, the neigh-sayers have had the opportunity to allow doom and gloom to hang over events by stating that the FED is looking at something that we cannot see. A rate rise removes this.\r\n\r\nFrom a trading perspective, a FED rate hike should initiate the fact that two more are on the way and that central bank monetary policy divergence is now in place across the major central banks.\r\n\r\nThis gives us a USD long trade. A sell the rips approach or buy the dips approach to the USD. Combine this with the EUROZONE headwinds and BREXIT uncertainties and we have parity calls in place for the single currency and sub 1.2000 for the cable.\r\n\r\nI know that I am early to the party with this article but the testimony last week has really focused my mind and broadened my awareness and horizons for my TRADE PLAN beyond Q1.\r\n\r\nIt sounds simple. But trading will still be difficult, although we should have direction. Remember, nothing goes in a straight line it will be choppy inside new ranges until they are broken and new ranges established. I do see us stepping lower in EUR and GBP currencies and the DXY moving above 103.00 and maybe with severe traction looking at the 115.00 –120.00 area once again.\r\n\r\nThe one currency pair that I am not so sure how it will react is the USD/JPY. That is for another day.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nTake care, have a great trading week.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #232 FREE NEWSLETTER\r\nDATE: 19th February 2017.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','THE FED HAS “TALKED THE TALK”  NOW, IT’S TIME TO “WALK THAT WALK”','','inherit','closed','closed','','9126-revision-v1','','','2017-02-18 15:31:02','2017-02-18 20:31:02','',9126,'http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/9126-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(9127,1,'2017-02-18 15:29:31','2017-02-18 20:29:31','&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong><strong> </strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThings are now starting to take shape in 2017, I am still in transition with trades and this will continue throughout Q1 but as things stand today the losses incurred in January are now almost gone as February has progressed.\r\n\r\nThe markets are still skittish towards whatever “THE DONALD” says, factual or not and despite some blow out U.S. data the USD is still somewhat on the back foot. My only thoughts to support this are; uncertainty about the TRUMP policies and the administration’s abilities to see them through and possibly the bulls**t that Yellen spouts time after time about all FOMC meetings “LIVE EVENTS”. We all know that she is ultra-dovish and she has strung along the markets for month after month to retain credibility, I think that now with such good undeniable data in front of her, it is time to walk the walk and not just talk the talk. Therefore, I hate to say this, but I think that the DXY will range until the March FED meeting… sorry to be the bearer of possible frustrating news.\r\n\r\nJanet Yellen’s testimony to both house committees last week was hawkish in both tone of comments and in the main with her answers to some tough, but mainly routine stupid questions that she was asked (Yes, you do not have to be the brightest button to get elected in the U.S. There are examples at every level!).\r\n\r\nLogically speaking and I know that one cannot apply logic to the Forex market, the USD (DXY) should have been blasting through towards 103.00. It reached a high of 101.72 on day two of Yellen’s testimony than started to fall back through 101.00 towards initial support at 99.77.\r\n\r\nAs stated earlier I do now think it\'s a walk the walk time for the FOMC.\r\n\r\nOther news during last week was as usual focused on the EUROZONE and BREXIT.\r\n\r\nI remain bearish on both. I do believe it will be a choppy affair moving forward. Every now and then we will see a dive lower in price. It all depends on what event triggers the move lower to see if there are buyers available that see a value in either EUR or the GBP at new lower levels. So far moves lower have found support at 1.0350 for the EUR/USD and just below 1.2000 in the GBP/USD. Whilst I think these levels will both the broken, normal price action at the moment is not having the impact to send prices lower. I had thought that Yellen’s testimony would have been an initial push but alas not.\r\n\r\nIf you are short like myself, you must be frugal and patient; managing your RISK at all times.\r\n\r\nUK and AUD jobs disappointed the markets when the numbers were dissected and analyzed in detail. Of annoyance to me was the Aussie jobs data. I was expecting a blowout number to take my AUD/NZD trades towards 1.0800. Thankfully I removed with the PREMIUM SERVICE a AUD/CAD long trade earlier in the day, so as not to have too much AUD exposure heading into the news. It was removed with $$$ on the table so at least that was something, given the fact it pulled back to around my initial entry point.\r\n\r\nPerhaps “being an ex Brit”, the strangest event last week for me was the astonishing speech given by ex UK Prime Minister Tony Blair on Bloomberg TV. It was quite bizarre; given his failings on WMD (Weapons of Mass Destruction) taking UK troops to their death in Iraq, his failings as a UN peace envoy in the Middle East, I wouldn’t say that the UK Population have him on the top of their Christmas Card lists. Tony Blair was so far up George W. Bush’s ar*e, he was solely responsible for Bush not being able to walk in a straight line!\r\n\r\nBack to the point…\r\n\r\nBasically, Tony Blair was saying that the UK could still avoid a BREXIT. At the 23rd hour, 59 minutes, 59.9 seconds through the process he now decides to speak out…why now?\r\n\r\nBlair is a career politician. He tried this ploy just after the BREXIT result came through. He was removed from the spotlight because the UK economic data continued to remain good and, in fact, following the devaluation of sterling in the currency markets in some areas it improved. He waited for the wash through of data to occur and on the day that UK Retail Sales dipped after the Christmas rush and increasing prices hitting households following currency re-valuations and small inflation signs, he decided now was the time.\r\n\r\nHe wants another referendum based upon the terms of the BREXIT. This is never going to happen, because the EUROPEAN UNION has made it clear that A50 needs to be triggered first before any BREXIT negotiations can begin. This makes sense. Therefore a referendum based on the “Blair” idea, is a non-runner.\r\n\r\nBlair is therefore merely an ex failed politician, given airtime because he is an ex. Prime Minister, his speech is just an unnecessary distraction given current UK Prime Minister’s Theresa May’s BREXIT timetable, which if still on schedule means that A50 could be triggered as early as March 9<sup>th</sup>.\r\n\r\nIf Blair believes that people will rebel en mass and demand a wait and hold and then a re-vote on EU membership he must be smoking something illegal in my eyes given the timetable of events.\r\n\r\nIt was as bizarre a media event as “THE DONALD’S” press conference the day earlier last week.\r\n\r\nMore…\r\n\r\nI have mentioned for the past two weeks that I was going to focus in this week’s blog about my transition trades as I adapt to these changing markets. I am not ready. This will appear when I have the total plan in place.\r\n\r\nI tried looking for factual follow-ups on FXCM, but I drew a blank, maybe I was just not looking in the right places. I, like a lot of people are fascinated to see did FXCM have the equivalent of a “run on the bank” worldwide, after the U.S. termination?\r\n\r\nStill some more…\r\n\r\nTHE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU – LIVE webinars.\r\n\r\nNow up to #5 this Monday. The software still gives me the creeps at times but I am now more comfortable with the content and the time 30-35 minutes in length. This is long enough for me and probably too long for you guys with my Liverpool accent.\r\n\r\n#5 is on Monday 20th February at 5:30PM\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>To attend live - you need Google Chrome as a browser.</li>\r\n 	<li>You cannot view on smart phones or tablets, only Laptops and Desktops.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThe “LIVE WEBINAR” link is below: -\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://bit.ly/drivethru-live\">http://bit.ly/drivethru-live</a>\r\n\r\nIf you cannot listen live you can check out my You Tube channel, <em>Scott Pickering</em> <em>Weekly FX Drive Thru</em> for a freshly posted copy of the webinar, usually, within a couple of hours of its completion.\r\n\r\nHere is the link for my you tube channel, when I get too 100 subscribers (if I get there) I can have my own personalized shortened link. If you like the style of my webinar, please subscribe. The benefits are that as soon as a new webinar is posted you are emailed.: -\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCV-9VDnNkHjTPBzKqLqCGJw/videos\">https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCV-9VDnNkHjTPBzKqLqCGJw/videos</a>\r\n\r\nFinally, in this section…\r\n\r\nIf you would like to be in the monthly draw to win a “FREE 10-WEEK SUBSCRIPTION” to the PREMIUM SERVICE, valued at CAD$1,000.00, all you have to do is subscribe to receive this FREE NEWSLETTER on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> On my welcome page just below my cube logo is where you complete your subscription.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE – LOOKING FORWARD:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>NOTE:</u></strong> This year, 2017, I am not going to look backwards in this section only forwards. News items / points of interest from the prior week will be covered in the introduction.\r\n\r\n<u>ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/ECON-DATA-19022017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-9119\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/ECON-DATA-19022017.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"568\" height=\"425\" /></a>(INSERT EXCEL SHEET)\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>MY THOUGHTS ON THE WEEK AHEAD:</u>\r\n\r\nJust a couple of items catch my eye this week: -\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>USD: FOMC Meeting Minutes – these should be hawkish. Given the statement at the time plus Janet Yellen’s recent testimony to both houses re the “Humphrey Hawkins”.\r\n\r\nAs long as we can start to see a consistency this should be good for both market confidence and sentiment. It is the one step forwards two steps back approach that has often confused and created uncertainty. The markets are like 4-year-old children; small words, clear, no grey just black and white.</li>\r\n 	<li>AUD: I am looking for consistency and confirmations of policy from the RBA. Philip Lowe (Governor) speaks twice this week and we also have the release of the minutes from the last RBA meeting.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nAs always bear in mind it has been news rather than economic data moving the markets so check twitter for tweets from “THE DONALD” and be aware of the BREXIT and EUROZONE possibility to deliver geopolitical news at any time totally unannounced.\r\n\r\n<u>USD MAJORS – “IMMEDIATE” SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE with TREND:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/TCHART-19022017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-9120\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/TCHART-19022017.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"512\" height=\"405\" /></a>(INSERT EXCEL SHEET)\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNo charts this week, I am travelling and do not have the technology.\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n\r\n</strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<u>WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber, fee based trade set-up option for Forex traders regardless of experience or background. I provide traders suggested trades, and some market commentary related to open trades or factors within the overall market that have my interest.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nAdditional information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\nIf you would like to watch/listen to a c.30-minute PREMIUM SERVICE webinar to learn more about what I can do to help you with your trading. Then click the link below and register. It is FREE… it costs nothing to listen.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://www.onlinemeetingnow.com/register/?id=wrklqabmy3\">http://www.onlinemeetingnow.com/register/?id=wrklqabmy3\r\n\r\n\r\n</a><strong>   4.  PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE SOAPBOX:</strong><strong> </strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>THE FED HAS “TALKED THE TALK”\r\n</strong><strong>NOW IT’S TIME TO “WALK THAT WALK”</strong></p>\r\nRegular readers and followers will know that over recent years following Bernanke, I have at times been critical of Janet Yellen’s chair at the FED\r\n\r\nShe is “ultra-dovish” and in my eyes, she always will be. As I have written on many occasions it is much easier and somewhat safer to be a DOVE rather than a HAWK. This is fine when an economy is in poor shape and requires support.\r\n\r\nHowever, in transition, a central bank does NOT want to get behind the various economic curves. It is a science beyond my pay grade knowing when to press the button to move. As a trader, I take a simple view based upon data sentiment over a 3-month period.\r\n\r\nI know that Central Bank’s operate in much larger time-scales, but this is in respect to longer-term goals, perspectives based upon their mandates set out by their governments. Central Bank governors, do have huge power, some of them also have huge egos to match the power but we should not lose sight of the fact that they are employed to manage and maintain economic stability, remove uncertainty and provide the markets with a clear monetary policy moving forward based upon key success factors upon which they are measured.\r\n\r\nI can go deeper but the nuts and bolts of the job are quite straightforward. Policy, stability, no uncertainties, clear projections and no bullsh*t. Sadly the bullsh*t is part of the job and we can all smell it, at times it is an insult to our intelligence that central bankers believe that they can pull the wool over our eyes.\r\n\r\nBack to the FED…\r\n\r\nFor months, the U.S. economic data has been generally good, the odd blip here and there but really good overall. If we are to believe the unemployment data, the U.S. is almost at full employment. Inflation had started to murmur ahead of “THE DONALDS” arrival in the White House.\r\n\r\nFor the past two years, the FED have only raised rates once a year in December 2015 and 2016. In 2016 the infamous “Dot plots” were signaling two, maybe three rate hikes, but we only saw a single rise in December.\r\n\r\nIn December 2016, the FED “dot plots” for 2017 showed their economic projections signaling 3 rate hikes in 2017. Within a month of the data release for 2017, the FED were down-playing three hikes to two or maybe just one!\r\n\r\nSince then we have had continual blow out numbers, jobs, confidence, sentiment, sales etc. I asked myself what the feck is going on at the FED what the hell are they looking at? Are they going to use the BREXIT or EUROZONE headwinds as an excuse not to raise? Will they find other geopolitical news to promote a hold back?\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nWith such good data and Ben Bernanke’s last words in my ears “The FED will now revert to normalization in the markets” had Janet Yellen showed any hesitance at all in acknowledging bloody good data, I was going to exit all USD long positions and only trade cross rates for the remainder of 2017.\r\n\r\nAs we know… she delivered.\r\n\r\nBut this is only part one of the story.\r\n\r\nOK, we get it every FED/FOMC meeting is LIVE. But it’s now about time to lead the markets, stay ahead of the curve and deliver rather than keep stringing the markets along for a year with a rate hike at the last possible moment which looks more like saving face than anything else.\r\n\r\nCredibility is a vital trait for a Central Bank to have. Without market credibility, they are not taken seriously. Look at the BOJ for example. The SNB is getting the same way Thomas Jordan needs to show muscle.\r\n\r\nDo I think that the FED is losing credibility?\r\n\r\nI do think it’s come close on occasion but we are now at limits never seen before, the data is so good. We have a TRUMP administration hell bent on a spend, spend, spend campaign which should produce inflation over the next 12-18 months. The FED needs to be ahead of the curve.\r\n\r\nWill Yellen deliver a rate hike on March 15<sup>th</sup> 2017?\r\n\r\nIf she does, it places 3 x rate hikes on the table for this year and shows that there is central bank confidence in the U.S. economy. At the moment, the neigh-sayers have had the opportunity to allow doom and gloom to hang over events by stating that the FED is looking at something that we cannot see. A rate rise removes this.\r\n\r\nFrom a trading perspective, a FED rate hike should initiate the fact that two more are on the way and that central bank monetary policy divergence is now in place across the major central banks.\r\n\r\nThis gives us a USD long trade. A sell the rips approach or buy the dips approach to the USD. Combine this with the EUROZONE headwinds and BREXIT uncertainties and we have parity calls in place for the single currency and sub 1.2000 for the cable.\r\n\r\nI know that I am early to the party with this article but the testimony last week has really focused my mind and broadened my awareness and horizons for my TRADE PLAN beyond Q1.\r\n\r\nIt sounds simple. But trading will still be difficult, although we should have direction. Remember, nothing goes in a straight line it will be choppy inside new ranges until they are broken and new ranges established. I do see us stepping lower in EUR and GBP currencies and the DXY moving above 103.00 and maybe with severe traction looking at the 115.00 –120.00 area once again.\r\n\r\nThe one currency pair that I am not so sure how it will react is the USD/JPY. That is for another day.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nTake care, have a great trading week.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #232 FREE NEWSLETTER\r\nDATE: 19th February 2017.<strong>\r\n\r\n</strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','THE FED HAS “TALKED THE TALK”  NOW, IT’S TIME TO “WALK THAT WALK”','','inherit','closed','closed','','9126-revision-v1','','','2017-02-18 15:29:31','2017-02-18 20:29:31','',9126,'http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/9126-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(9129,1,'2017-02-18 15:32:06','2017-02-18 20:32:06','&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong><strong> </strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThings are now starting to take shape in 2017, I am still in transition with trades and this will continue throughout Q1 but as things stand today the losses incurred in January are now almost gone as February has progressed.\r\n\r\nThe markets are still skittish towards whatever “THE DONALD” says, factual or not and despite some blow out U.S. data the USD is still somewhat on the back foot. My only thoughts to support this are; uncertainty about the TRUMP policies and the administration’s abilities to see them through and possibly the bulls**t that Yellen spouts time after time about all FOMC meetings “LIVE EVENTS”. We all know that she is ultra-dovish and she has strung along the markets for month after month to retain credibility, I think that now with such good undeniable data in front of her, it is time to walk the walk and not just talk the talk. Therefore, I hate to say this, but I think that the DXY will range until the March FED meeting… sorry to be the bearer of possible frustrating news.\r\n\r\nJanet Yellen’s testimony to both house committees last week was hawkish in both tone of comments and in the main with her answers to some tough, but mainly routine stupid questions that she was asked (Yes, you do not have to be the brightest button to get elected in the U.S. There are examples at every level!).\r\n\r\nLogically speaking and I know that one cannot apply logic to the Forex market, the USD (DXY) should have been blasting through towards 103.00. It reached a high of 101.72 on day two of Yellen’s testimony than started to fall back through 101.00 towards initial support at 99.77.\r\n\r\nAs stated earlier I do now think it\'s a walk the walk time for the FOMC.\r\n\r\nOther news during last week was as usual focused on the EUROZONE and BREXIT.\r\n\r\nI remain bearish on both. I do believe it will be a choppy affair moving forward. Every now and then we will see a dive lower in price. It all depends on what event triggers the move lower to see if there are buyers available that see a value in either EUR or the GBP at new lower levels. So far moves lower have found support at 1.0350 for the EUR/USD and just below 1.2000 in the GBP/USD. Whilst I think these levels will both the broken, normal price action at the moment is not having the impact to send prices lower. I had thought that Yellen’s testimony would have been an initial push but alas not.\r\n\r\nIf you are short like myself, you must be frugal and patient; managing your RISK at all times.\r\n\r\nUK and AUD jobs disappointed the markets when the numbers were dissected and analyzed in detail. Of annoyance to me was the Aussie jobs data. I was expecting a blowout number to take my AUD/NZD trades towards 1.0800. Thankfully I removed with the PREMIUM SERVICE a AUD/CAD long trade earlier in the day, so as not to have too much AUD exposure heading into the news. It was removed with $$$ on the table so at least that was something, given the fact it pulled back to around my initial entry point.\r\n\r\nPerhaps “being an ex Brit”, the strangest event last week for me was the astonishing speech given by ex UK Prime Minister Tony Blair on Bloomberg TV. It was quite bizarre; given his failings on WMD (Weapons of Mass Destruction) taking UK troops to their death in Iraq, his failings as a UN peace envoy in the Middle East, I wouldn’t say that the UK Population have him on the top of their Christmas Card lists. Tony Blair was so far up George W. Bush’s ar*e, he was solely responsible for Bush not being able to walk in a straight line!\r\n\r\nBack to the point…\r\n\r\nBasically, Tony Blair was saying that the UK could still avoid a BREXIT. At the 23rd hour, 59 minutes, 59.9 seconds through the process he now decides to speak out…why now?\r\n\r\nBlair is a career politician. He tried this ploy just after the BREXIT result came through. He was removed from the spotlight because the UK economic data continued to remain good and, in fact, following the devaluation of sterling in the currency markets in some areas it improved. He waited for the wash through of data to occur and on the day that UK Retail Sales dipped after the Christmas rush and increasing prices hitting households following currency re-valuations and small inflation signs, he decided now was the time.\r\n\r\nHe wants another referendum based upon the terms of the BREXIT. This is never going to happen, because the EUROPEAN UNION has made it clear that A50 needs to be triggered first before any BREXIT negotiations can begin. This makes sense. Therefore a referendum based on the “Blair” idea, is a non-runner.\r\n\r\nBlair is therefore merely an ex failed politician, given airtime because he is an ex. Prime Minister, his speech is just an unnecessary distraction given current UK Prime Minister’s Theresa May’s BREXIT timetable, which if still on schedule means that A50 could be triggered as early as March 9<sup>th</sup>.\r\n\r\nIf Blair believes that people will rebel en mass and demand a wait and hold and then a re-vote on EU membership he must be smoking something illegal in my eyes given the timetable of events.\r\n\r\nIt was as bizarre a media event as “THE DONALD’S” press conference the day earlier last week.\r\n\r\nMore…\r\n\r\nI have mentioned for the past two weeks that I was going to focus in this week’s blog about my transition trades as I adapt to these changing markets. I am not ready. This will appear when I have the total plan in place.\r\n\r\nI tried looking for factual follow-ups on FXCM, but I drew a blank, maybe I was just not looking in the right places. I, like a lot of people are fascinated to see did FXCM have the equivalent of a “run on the bank” worldwide, after the U.S. termination?\r\n\r\nStill some more…\r\n\r\nTHE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU – LIVE webinars.\r\n\r\nNow up to #5 this Monday. The software still gives me the creeps at times but I am now more comfortable with the content and the time 30-35 minutes in length. This is long enough for me and probably too long for you guys with my Liverpool accent.\r\n\r\n#5 is on Monday 20th February at 5:30PM\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>To attend live - you need Google Chrome as a browser.</li>\r\n 	<li>You cannot view on smart phones or tablets, only Laptops and Desktops.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThe “LIVE WEBINAR” link is below: -\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://bit.ly/drivethru-live\">http://bit.ly/drivethru-live</a>\r\n\r\nIf you cannot listen live you can check out my You Tube channel, <em>Scott Pickering</em> <em>Weekly FX Drive Thru</em> for a freshly posted copy of the webinar, usually, within a couple of hours of its completion.\r\n\r\nHere is the link for my you tube channel, when I get too 100 subscribers (if I get there) I can have my own personalized shortened link. If you like the style of my webinar, please subscribe. The benefits are that as soon as a new webinar is posted you are emailed.: -\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCV-9VDnNkHjTPBzKqLqCGJw/videos\">https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCV-9VDnNkHjTPBzKqLqCGJw/videos</a>\r\n\r\nFinally, in this section…\r\n\r\nIf you would like to be in the monthly draw to win a “FREE 10-WEEK SUBSCRIPTION” to the PREMIUM SERVICE, valued at CAD$1,000.00, all you have to do is subscribe to receive this FREE NEWSLETTER on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> On my welcome page just below my cube logo is where you complete your subscription.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE – LOOKING FORWARD:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong><u>NOTE:</u></strong> This year, 2017, I am not going to look backwards in this section only forwards. News items / points of interest from the prior week will be covered in the introduction.\r\n\r\n<u>ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/ECON-DATA-19022017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-9119\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/ECON-DATA-19022017.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"568\" height=\"425\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u>MY THOUGHTS ON THE WEEK AHEAD:</u>\r\n\r\nJust a couple of items catch my eye this week: -\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>USD: FOMC Meeting Minutes – these should be hawkish. Given the statement at the time plus Janet Yellen’s recent testimony to both houses re the “Humphrey Hawkins”.As long as we can start to see a consistency this should be good for both market confidence and sentiment. It is the one step forwards two steps back approach that has often confused and created uncertainty. The markets are like 4-year-old children; small words, clear, no grey just black and white.</li>\r\n 	<li>AUD: I am looking for consistency and confirmations of policy from the RBA. Philip Lowe (Governor) speaks twice this week and we also have the release of the minutes from the last RBA meeting.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nAs always bear in mind it has been news rather than economic data moving the markets so check twitter for tweets from “THE DONALD” and be aware of the BREXIT and EUROZONE possibility to deliver geopolitical news at any time totally unannounced.\r\n\r\n<u>USD MAJORS – “IMMEDIATE” SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE with TREND:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/TCHART-19022017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-9120\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/TCHART-19022017.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"512\" height=\"405\" /></a>\r\n\r\nNo charts this week, I am travelling and do not have the technology.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE?:</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber, fee based trade set-up option for Forex traders regardless of experience or background. I provide traders suggested trades, and some market commentary related to open trades or factors within the overall market that have my interest.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nAdditional information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\nIf you would like to watch/listen to a c.30-minute PREMIUM SERVICE webinar to learn more about what I can do to help you with your trading. Then click the link below and register. It is FREE… it costs nothing to listen.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://www.onlinemeetingnow.com/register/?id=wrklqabmy3\">http://www.onlinemeetingnow.com/register/?id=wrklqabmy3</a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>   4.  PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE SOAPBOX:</strong><strong> </strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>THE FED HAS “TALKED THE TALK”\r\n</strong><strong>NOW IT’S TIME TO “WALK THAT WALK”</strong></p>\r\nRegular readers and followers will know that over recent years following Bernanke, I have at times been critical of Janet Yellen’s chair at the FED\r\n\r\nShe is “ultra-dovish” and in my eyes, she always will be. As I have written on many occasions it is much easier and somewhat safer to be a DOVE rather than a HAWK. This is fine when an economy is in poor shape and requires support.\r\n\r\nHowever, in transition, a central bank does NOT want to get behind the various economic curves. It is a science beyond my pay grade knowing when to press the button to move. As a trader, I take a simple view based upon data sentiment over a 3-month period.\r\n\r\nI know that Central Bank’s operate in much larger time-scales, but this is in respect to longer-term goals, perspectives based upon their mandates set out by their governments. Central Bank governors, do have huge power, some of them also have huge egos to match the power but we should not lose sight of the fact that they are employed to manage and maintain economic stability, remove uncertainty and provide the markets with a clear monetary policy moving forward based upon key success factors upon which they are measured.\r\n\r\nI can go deeper but the nuts and bolts of the job are quite straightforward. Policy, stability, no uncertainties, clear projections and no bullsh*t. Sadly the bullsh*t is part of the job and we can all smell it, at times it is an insult to our intelligence that central bankers believe that they can pull the wool over our eyes.\r\n\r\nBack to the FED…\r\n\r\nFor months, the U.S. economic data has been generally good, the odd blip here and there but really good overall. If we are to believe the unemployment data, the U.S. is almost at full employment. Inflation had started to murmur ahead of “THE DONALDS” arrival in the White House.\r\n\r\nFor the past two years, the FED have only raised rates once a year in December 2015 and 2016. In 2016 the infamous “Dot plots” were signaling two, maybe three rate hikes, but we only saw a single rise in December.\r\n\r\nIn December 2016, the FED “dot plots” for 2017 showed their economic projections signaling 3 rate hikes in 2017. Within a month of the data release for 2017, the FED were down-playing three hikes to two or maybe just one!\r\n\r\nSince then we have had continual blow out numbers, jobs, confidence, sentiment, sales etc. I asked myself what the feck is going on at the FED what the hell are they looking at? Are they going to use the BREXIT or EUROZONE headwinds as an excuse not to raise? Will they find other geopolitical news to promote a hold back?\r\n\r\nWith such good data and Ben Bernanke’s last words in my ears “The FED will now revert to normalization in the markets” had Janet Yellen showed any hesitance at all in acknowledging bloody good data, I was going to exit all USD long positions and only trade cross rates for the remainder of 2017.\r\n\r\nAs we know… she delivered.\r\n\r\nBut this is only part one of the story.\r\n\r\nOK, we get it every FED/FOMC meeting is LIVE. But it’s now about time to lead the markets, stay ahead of the curve and deliver rather than keep stringing the markets along for a year with a rate hike at the last possible moment which looks more like saving face than anything else.\r\n\r\nCredibility is a vital trait for a Central Bank to have. Without market credibility, they are not taken seriously. Look at the BOJ for example. The SNB is getting the same way Thomas Jordan needs to show muscle.\r\n\r\nDo I think that the FED is losing credibility?\r\n\r\nI do think it’s come close on occasion but we are now at limits never seen before, the data is so good. We have a TRUMP administration hell bent on a spend, spend, spend campaign which should produce inflation over the next 12-18 months. The FED needs to be ahead of the curve.\r\n\r\nWill Yellen deliver a rate hike on March 15<sup>th</sup> 2017?\r\n\r\nIf she does, it places 3 x rate hikes on the table for this year and shows that there is central bank confidence in the U.S. economy. At the moment, the neigh-sayers have had the opportunity to allow doom and gloom to hang over events by stating that the FED is looking at something that we cannot see. A rate rise removes this.\r\n\r\nFrom a trading perspective, a FED rate hike should initiate the fact that two more are on the way and that central bank monetary policy divergence is now in place across the major central banks.\r\n\r\nThis gives us a USD long trade. A sell the rips approach or buy the dips approach to the USD. Combine this with the EUROZONE headwinds and BREXIT uncertainties and we have parity calls in place for the single currency and sub 1.2000 for the cable.\r\n\r\nI know that I am early to the party with this article but the testimony last week has really focused my mind and broadened my awareness and horizons for my TRADE PLAN beyond Q1.\r\n\r\nIt sounds simple. But trading will still be difficult, although we should have direction. Remember, nothing goes in a straight line it will be choppy inside new ranges until they are broken and new ranges established. I do see us stepping lower in EUR and GBP currencies and the DXY moving above 103.00 and maybe with severe traction looking at the 115.00 –120.00 area once again.\r\n\r\nThe one currency pair that I am not so sure how it will react is the USD/JPY. That is for another day.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nTake care, have a great trading week.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #232 FREE NEWSLETTER\r\nDATE: 19th February 2017.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','THE FED HAS “TALKED THE TALK”  NOW, IT’S TIME TO “WALK THAT WALK”','','inherit','closed','closed','','9126-revision-v1','','','2017-02-18 15:32:06','2017-02-18 20:32:06','',9126,'http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/9126-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(9131,1,'2017-02-20 06:34:07','2017-02-20 11:34:07','','RADAR 20022017','','inherit','open','closed','','radar-20022017','','','2017-02-20 06:38:27','2017-02-20 11:38:27','',2524,'http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/RADAR-20022017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(9132,1,'2017-02-20 06:34:22','2017-02-20 11:34:22','','FLASH 20022017','','inherit','open','closed','','flash-20022017','','','2017-02-20 06:37:37','2017-02-20 11:37:37','',2711,'http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/FLASH-20022017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(9133,1,'2017-02-20 06:34:36','2017-02-20 11:34:36','','FUN 20022017','','inherit','open','closed','','fun-20022017','','','2017-02-20 06:39:26','2017-02-20 11:39:26','',3106,'http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/FUN-20022017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(9134,1,'2017-02-20 06:34:49','2017-02-20 11:34:49','','POS1 20022017','','inherit','open','closed','','pos1-20022017','','','2017-02-20 06:40:30','2017-02-20 11:40:30','',6965,'http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/POS1-20022017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(9135,1,'2017-02-20 06:34:59','2017-02-20 11:34:59','','POS2 20022017','','inherit','open','closed','','pos2-20022017','','','2017-02-20 06:40:37','2017-02-20 11:40:37','',6965,'http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/POS2-20022017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(9136,1,'2017-02-20 06:35:13','2017-02-20 11:35:13','','POS3 20022017','','inherit','open','closed','','pos3-20022017','','','2017-02-20 06:40:41','2017-02-20 11:40:41','',6965,'http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/POS3-20022017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(9137,1,'2017-02-20 06:37:45','2017-02-20 11:37:45','<section class=\"one-sixth first\">\r\n<h4>Flash Trades Archives:</h4>\r\n</section><section class=\"five-sixths\">\r\n<div class=\"one-half first\">\r\n<h2>This Month\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/FLASH-20022017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9132\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/FLASH-20022017-758x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"758\" height=\"1024\" /></a></h2>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"one-half\">\r\n<h2>Year to date\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/FLASH-JANYTD2017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-9046\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/FLASH-JANYTD2017.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"856\" height=\"944\" /></a></h2>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<h2>Previous Years</h2>\r\n<h2><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-8809\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/FLASH-2016-COMPLETE.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"872\" height=\"952\" />\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-6987\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/FLASH-2015-COMP.png\" alt=\"FLASH 2015 COMP\" width=\"544\" height=\"576\" /></h2>\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/FLASH-2014-COMPLETE.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-8859\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/FLASH-2014-COMPLETE.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"700\" height=\"744\" /></a>\r\n<h2></h2>\r\n</div>\r\n</section>','Flash Trades','','inherit','closed','closed','','2711-revision-v1','','','2017-02-20 06:37:45','2017-02-20 11:37:45','',2711,'http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/2711-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(3015,16,'2016-05-06 18:48:04','2016-05-06 23:48:04','<div>\n<h3 style=\"text-align: center;\"></h3>\n<h3 style=\"text-align: center;\">THE PREMIUM SERVICE\nis\nThe Home of Single-Lot Trading</h3>\n&nbsp;\n\n<strong>1. What is the PREMIUM SERVICE?</strong>\n\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a Forex subscription service that provides you with trade set-ups &nbsp;both as they happen, or by a strategic entry, plus you will also receive from time to time my thoughts and views on the Forex market.\n\nOver the following few paragraphs I am hoping that I will convince you that having a subscription to the PREMIUM SERVICE is not only a shrewd trading decision but also a shrewd business decision. &nbsp;Whilst I cannot 100% guarantee that you will make money from the trades I suggest, the PREMIUM SERVICE now has a two-year track record of a profitable performance, regardless of the size of your investment into the Forex market.\n\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is different from other TRADE SIGNAL providers. I offer a personal service that invites you to ask questions. I am contactable at most times. I enjoy interaction with my subscribers. I consider myself an educator as well as a trader. I trade my set-ups.\n\n</div>\nMy aim is to create a consistency in trading for all subscribers, whether you are trading with a broker account of $1,000.00 or $500,000.00. The thrill / delight of a trade set-up performing in line with your expectations is still exciting to me after many years of trading.\n<div>\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<strong>2. How did the PREMIUM SERVICE evolve?</strong>\n\nI started trading Forex about 9&nbsp;years ago. Like many new traders I thought that the Forex Market was: -\n\na)&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; An easy way to add an additional income stream into my family’s monthly finances.\n\nb)&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Quite straightforward, the chart reading seemed easy to follow; until I realized the trainer was always looking back at this is what you should have done.\n\nc)&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Nobody really sat me down and taught me about “Levels of interest”, “Support and Resistance”, “Pivot Points and their uses”, and how useful certain “Fibonacci levels” are when plotting potential moves.\n\nIt took me 3 or 4 years of learning the hard way, to come to the realization that trading Forex is not that straightforward and it most certainly is NOT easy. My last 3 years or so of trading however has changed my entire view on the markets and how I trade them.\n\nIn 2013, I made the decision that I would change the format of my blog “THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU”, which had previously contained many successful trade set-ups on all types of trades and currency pairs to have a different focus.\n\nStarting in 2014 I launched a more detailed weekly review called the PREMIUM SERVICE in which all my set-ups and thoughts on the market are contained. Details of the first two years of the PREMIUM SERVICE performance are set out below in sections 5, 6, 7 and 8.\n\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE has completed two years of performance&nbsp;with a full, complete and published profitable trading history behind it.&nbsp;&nbsp;My initial goals and objectives have been achieved. Feedback from&nbsp;subscribers is positive. There is a family \"feel\" to the service and I am to coin a phrase…. absolutely delighted.\n\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE moves into 2016, stronger and with an additional trade style &nbsp;POSITION &nbsp;TRADES formerly \"PART-TIME TRADE TRADES\". There are thousands of Forex traders in the world that I classify as PART-TIME. They fall between a rock and hard place when it comes to help. Brokers are just not interested. Forex trading is lonely as we all know and the PART-TIME trader is even more remote. My goal is&nbsp;to bring the PART-TIME TRADER into the PREMIUM SERVICE by providing these traders with limited computer/ smart phone access specific trades.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n</div>\n<div>\n\n<strong>3. The PREMIUM SERVICE is for all traders - what type of trader are you?</strong>\n\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE attracts many different traders at different levels of experience.\n<ul>\n 	<li>NEW FULL-TIME OR NEW PART-TIME TRADERS – Looking to generate either a permanent additional income stream or a supplementary income stream. PART-TIME&nbsp;traders specifically, should also check out my other tab on my landing page titled&nbsp;PART-TIME TRADERS. The&nbsp;POSITION trade&nbsp;set-ups are hoped to be longer-term, specifically aimed at traders who do not have unlimited access to their devices to check trades. These trades are for those traders who can only view their computers only twice/three times a day to review progress in full. I do however, assume via an iPhone or equivalent that you could react to the odd trade amendment that may be sent via twitter. Whilst these longer-term POSITION&nbsp;trades are aimed at PART-TIME traders they are of course open to all traders.</li>\n 	<li>AN INTERMEDIATE TRADER – Looking for additional support, maybe a different perspective on trades.</li>\n 	<li>A SEASONED TRADER – Finding it very isolated and hard with existing trading conditions and looking for confirmations of another traders view.</li>\n 	<li>A TECHNICAL TRADER – Just looking for an alternative view, a different set of eyes interpreting the same chart, maybe seeking some validation.\nMaybe you just want a “Fundamental traders” viewpoint as an alternative.</li>\n</ul>\n&nbsp;\n\n<strong>4. How does the PREMIUM SERVICE work; How is it different; What are your benefits of being a subscriber?</strong>\n\nFirstly, it is NOT an automated system.\n\nI provide trade set-ups and trades that are on “MY RADAR” to you via the PREMIUM SERVICE version of THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU each week. Only PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers receive the \"FULL\" version of my blog that has now been in existance for over 5 years. Plus&nbsp;each day if I see a trade that interests me, I post trade set-ups to to the <strong>@</strong>ThePremService twitter feed and I also email &nbsp;the set-up data for all trade styles, except FLASH trades.&nbsp;During a typical week about 10 trades on average are posted.&nbsp;It is up to you if you decide to follow them or not.\n\nPREMIUM SERVICE subscribers have access to an exclusive secure twitter feed into which 24x7 I will tweet trade ideas, set-ups, amendments to limit orders, amendments to live trades, basically anything that is on my mind. (Whilst I live on NYC time I am active in most sessions, I sleep at weekends).\n\nSubscribers also have access to a whole section of training materials on the website. All the trades that are entered are summarized and posted on excel spreadsheets on the website, so that you can see if you did not take a particular trade, whether it made money or not.\n\nI also provide bespoke training, if YOU&nbsp;want it. This is priced individually based upon YOUR&nbsp;needs, timings and requirements. More details about this can be found under the EDUCATION tab in the section called Mentoring and Coaching.\n\nRead my TESTIMONIALS section, do not just take my word for it. &nbsp;Everything is published...both the good and the not so good. Like every Forex trader I have losses, it is part of trading when RISK is involved. I have NO secrets all good and bad trades are published. What you see is what you get. I am NOT a CITIBANK or BARCLAYS, I am Scott Pickering a Forex Trader.\n\nTrading Forex is not a win it quick cash grab. It is basically a RISK ASSESSMENT&nbsp;analysis of &nbsp;trading charts supported by a FUNDAMENTAL overview of the market. It is fascinating, exciting, thrilling, very rewarding but also frustrating and annoying all at the same time. There are many things written about Forex. It is often called a \"gamblers paradise\" because it\'s a 50-50 option....simply up or down. Better odds than Las Vegas. There is much more to Forex Trading than odds.\n\nIf you are a gambler please just go to Las Vegas or your closest Casino. Trading Forex involves added risk due to LEVERAGE that Las Vegas does NOT have.\n\nI can help you through the&nbsp;all the issues no matter what level of trading experience you have, as I have mentioned already I consider myself an educator as well as a tyrader and one of my personbal goals is to help traders trade with greater consistency as this provides longevity in trading.\n\n</div>\n<div>\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<strong>5. My four TRADE STYLE definitions:</strong>\n\n<strong>FLASH TRADES (FT):-&nbsp;</strong>Opportunist trades in LIVE market conditions. These trades are either based off a pullback strategy, a \"GIMME 10\"&nbsp;pip strategy, or off momentum in a trading pair at the time of entry.The goal is to either take 10-30 pips or see a sufficient move to place a protective stop in place to see if a swing trade develops.Some FLASH TRADES may form part of an overall trading plan with a given currency pair, but the entry could not be made via a LIMIT ORDER.\n\n<strong> RADAR TRADES (RT):-&nbsp;</strong>These a pre-meditated entry trades set from either Fibonacci levels, pivot points or previous support and resistance based off a combination of horizontal or trend line support or resistance.The goal is always if possible to swing trade these trades by establishing a position that if market conditions apply allow the trade to gather traction and develop into a longer-term position trade.\n\n<strong>FUNDAMENTAL TRADES (FUN):-&nbsp;</strong>These will be trades based off my TRADING PLAN goals for trades in line with my longer-term market views.Trades in this area will use in addition Fibonacci levels, Pivot points, trend lines and prior support and resistance levels, weekly and monthly ATR’s (Average True Ranges) when setting Stop Loss levels.These trades are hopefully of a longer-term nature. They will be initially “single-lot” sized trades due to the wider stop placements that will be applied.\n\n<strong>POSITION TRADES (POS): - </strong>These set-ups are new for 2016. They are intended for Forex traders who have limited access to their computer screens or smart phones during the day to review open trades. However, they are open to all traders regardless of circumstances. All trade set-ups will be by LIMIT ORDER. These trades are based upon central bank divergent policies and are intended to be of a longer-term duration. They are&nbsp;probably more in line with what many traders of old, would call, position style trades. Stop Loss levels and Profit objectives will be wide and smaller position sizes are recommended to ensure correct&nbsp;MONEY and RISK MANAGEMENT principles are adhered to in line with your TRADE PLAN. I project that during 2016 we could see multiple trades in one currency pair in play at any one time as the trade gathers traction in our desired direction. I will select areas along the way during the trade to capture profits. (Please see the&nbsp;tab on my landing page PART-TIME FOREX TRADERS for more information&nbsp;on this trade style).\n\n&nbsp;\n\n&nbsp;\n\n</div>\n<div>\n\n<strong>6. THE PREMIUM SERVICE – &nbsp;Completed Annual&nbsp;Results for the first two years:</strong>\n\nTo give a complete view of the returns possible using the PREMIUM SERVICE, the annual performances below, include costs to trade that I am involved with, such as the costs to place a trade with your broker and the annual PREMIUM SERVICE subscription fees.\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">PLEASE NOTE</span>: - The returns shown below are&nbsp;based off trading just single lots in each trading style/category. Obviously, if are able to trade two lot position sizes the gross returns would be double and the costs to trade also double. RISK MANAGEMENT also comes into play when position sizes increase and should you require help or guidance&nbsp;on this subject please contact me. In addition, remember, the&nbsp;spread sheets below&nbsp;show a net position including an annual subscription to the PREMIUM SERVICE.\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"></p>\n\n</div>\n<div>\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<strong>2015 COMPLETE:\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/prem-serv-perf-2015/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7002\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7002\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/PREM-SERV-PERF-2015.png\" alt=\"PREM SERV PERF 2015\" width=\"464\" height=\"421\" /></a></strong>\n\n&nbsp;\n<div>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Looking specifically at 2015 above:</strong></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Let\'s assume that you are a sinle mini lot trader of ALL trades that were suggested.</p>\n\n</div>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">You would have made 690 trades\nCost $690.00\nGross Income from the 690 trades = $10,686.00\nLess your cost to trade of $690.00 = Net income of $9,996.00\nLess your PREMIUM SERVICE subscription of $ 795.00 = <strong>$9,201.00</strong></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">From your investment of $690 you make $9,201.00\nEverything is published there are no secrets. You just have to work at your screens as much as I do to be around for every trade set up\nWhere else can you get such a return on capital?</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">If you were able to trade 2 x mini lots your net rerurn would be:-\n($10,686 x 2 = $21,372.00 - (690 x 2 ) $1,380 = $19,992.00\nLess your&nbsp;PREMIUM SERVICE subscription&nbsp;of $795.00&nbsp;= <strong>$19,197.00</strong></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">You just to have to ensure that you have a broker account that can accomodate the risks involved to trade\nat these trade sizes.\nAt any one time there can be as many as 25 live trades in operation with STOP LOSS RISKS attached to them.</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">As long as you trade with real and effective RISK MANAGEMENT and POSITION SIZING principles\nin place and tade in accordance with your TRADING PLAN, it is possible to make money part of full-time from Forex Trading.</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">At ALL times you need TRADING DISCIPLINE in place to ensure longevity in trading. This is key and fundamental to success.</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>PLEASE NOTE:</strong>\nYou must ensure that with any trading account &nbsp;you have a sufficient balance to accomodate the risks involved in trading.\nThis is crucial to your trading success and you should not manage&nbsp;an account in which you trade too large a position size as this will only result in marginn calls from your broker.\nWhich, in my opinion is a 100% recipe for a complete and utter disaster.\nYou must trade and operate an account sufficient to cope with the swings that you get with trading from profit to loss, as mentioned earlier\ntrading Forex involves RISK and this must be managed.\nIf you have questions on this subject please contact me at premiumservice@weeklyfxdrivethru.com\nI am here to help.</p>\n\n<strong>2014 COMPLETE:\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/prem-serv-perf-2014/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7001\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7001\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/PREM-SERV-PERF-2014.png\" alt=\"PREM SERV PERF 2014\" width=\"459\" height=\"398\" /></a></strong>\n\n<strong>7. THE&nbsp;PREMIUM SERVICE by PIPS generated:</strong>\n\n</div>\nWhilst I am not a computer or a robot, the PREMIUM SERVICE performance is growth based on year on year performance when measuring the number pips of profit that are being generated. The chart below breaks down and analysis the 2014 performance of last year to this years 2015 performance.\n\nOf course, I cannot always guarantee that PREMIUM SERVICE will always beat previous&nbsp;years&nbsp;performances, however,&nbsp;I will do my utmost to ensure it does.\n\nAs I have said, many, many times...it is all about consistency. Whether it be 5,000 or 10,000 pips per year the key is to have a base of performance. My goal for my subscribers is to give them a minimum of 10,000 pips per year.\n\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/6869-2/pip-comp-2015-v-2014-comp/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-6992\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6992\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/PIP-COMP-2015-v-2014-COMP.png\" alt=\"PIP COMP 2015 v 2014 COMP\" width=\"599\" height=\"515\" /></a>\n\n<strong>8. What about this year\'s performance so far in 2016?</strong>\n\nBelow are the key statistics for this years performance. I update these at the end of each month. They are self explanatory, however should you require more micro level data there are no secrets I have the paperwork. It is on view to existing subscribers of the PREMIUM SERVICE in the secure area of my website. Obviously from a space issue I only present in this section the monthly totals and all the collated results from the various reports that are produced.\n\nIf you want additional information all you have to do ask.\n\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/PS-PROFITS2-30042016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7691\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/PS-PROFITS2-30042016.png\" alt=\"PS PROFITS2 30042016\" width=\"515\" height=\"508\" /></a>\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/PS-PL-APRIL2016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7706\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/PS-PL-APRIL2016.png\" alt=\"PS P&amp;L% APRIL2016\" width=\"400\" height=\"503\" /></a>\n\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/RISK-REWARD-APRIL2016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7707\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/RISK-REWARD-APRIL2016.png\" alt=\"RISK-REWARD APRIL2016\" width=\"415\" height=\"525\" /></a>\n\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/PIP-COMPARISON-APRIL2016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7708\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/PIP-COMPARISON-APRIL2016.png\" alt=\"PIP COMPARISON APRIL2016\" width=\"575\" height=\"333\" /></a>\n<div>\n\n<strong>9. What are your benefits and costs of being a subsciber to the PREMIUM SERVICE?&nbsp;</strong>\n\n</div>\nThere will be 40 weekly blogs / issues per year. I will not write in the summer and over Christmas periods. There will be an unlimited amount of Twitter follow-ups to the exclusive subscribers on a Twitter secure feed during the week to review and act upon “FLASH, RADAR, FUNDAMENTAL and POSITION trades” and issues emanating from previous blogs.\n\n<strong>SUBSCRIPTION FEATURES and BENEFITS:</strong><u>\n</u>\n<ul>\n 	<li>4&nbsp;options on subscription periods.</li>\n 	<li>100% access to the PREMIUM SERVICE area of my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a></li>\n 	<li>A dedicated exclusive twitter feed @ThePremService.</li>\n 	<li>All trade set-ups communicated via Twitter and RADAR, FUNDAMENTAL and POSITION trades additionally via email.</li>\n 	<li>The full and complete version of The WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU delivered weekly via an emailed PDF, and, viewable on line inside the PREMIUM SERVICE secure section of <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a></li>\n 	<li>My thoughts and comments on market conditions via twitter and/or email.</li>\n 	<li>Option to request individual / bespoke \"one-on-one coaching\".</li>\n 	<li>It is my intention starting later this year that all annual subscribers (the highest level of subscription), will receive additional benefits over and above the other subscriber levels.</li>\n 	<li>In addition ALL existing PLATINUM MEMBERS (annual subscribers) receive a 20% discount off their annual renewal subscription when they re-subscribe.</li>\n</ul>\n<h4>SUBSCRIPTION OPTIONS:</h4>\n\n<div class=\"clearfix\" style=\"margin-bottom: 15px;\">\n\n<div class=\"one-half first\">\n<div class=\"subscription\">\n<p class=\"length\">PLATINUM MEMBER:\nANNUAL (40 WEEK) SUBSCRIPTION: CAD$1,250.00\n(this equates to CAD$31.25 per week)</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n\n<div class=\"one-half\">\n<div class=\"subscription\">\n<p class=\"length\">GOLD MEMBER:\n6 Months (20 WEEKS) SUBSCRIPTION: CAD$750.00\n(this equates to CAD$37.50 per week)</p>\n\n</div>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n<div class=\"clearfix\" style=\"margin-bottom: 15px;\">\n\n<div class=\"one-half first\">\n<div class=\"subscription\">\n<p class=\"length\">GOLD MEMBER:\n3 Months (10 WEEKS) SUBSCRIPTION: CAD$500.00\n(this equates to CAD$50.00 per week)</p>\n\n</div>\n</div>\n<div class=\"one-half\">\n<div class=\"subscription\">\n<p class=\"length\">GOLD MEMBER:\n1 Month (4 WEEKS) SUBSCRIPTION: CAD$240.00\n(this equates to CAD$60.00 per week)</p>\n\n<div>\n(All Fees are quoted in&nbsp;CAD&nbsp;and Please note: There are no refunds once a subscription is accepted)\n<div>\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<strong>10. If I am interested and I want to subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE what do I do next?</strong>\n\nIf you are happy with all the above and want to move forward to the next stage, here is what you do: -\n\nSubscribing to the PREMIUM SERVICE takes literally just 5 minutes maximum. On my welcome page go to SUBSCRIBE&nbsp;at the top of the page to sign up. Choose the level of subscription that you want and period that you want to subscribe for if applicable. &nbsp;You pick your password, ID etc. You will need a PayPal account to complete your subscription. Very quick, easy and convenient.\n\nIn addition you should also check the PROMOTION tab at the top of this page as well, as from time to time they can be extremely attractive.\n\nI hope that you will find the argument to sign up and subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE compelling and look forward to welcoming you onboard soon.\n\nIf you have any questions at all or want additional information about anything to do with the PREMIUM SERVICE please email me at: - premiumservice@weeklyfxdrivethru.com\n\n</div>\n&nbsp;\n\n<strong>11. FX BROKERS&nbsp;and additional FOREX&nbsp;trading support:</strong>\n\nOn my landing page there are a number of banners from brokers and equipment suppliers. These are my recommended&nbsp;relationships. Clicking on their banners establishes a link between the PREMIUM SERVICE (Me), the broker and you. As an educator one of my key objectives is to help and guide as best I can all traders to improve their consistency and profitability through trading. My preferred brokers from time to time will offer special incentives for new clients and as clients introduced via the PREMIUM SERVICE an additional support level is added.\n\nIf you are looking to add a Forex broker, please click on the banners and explore the options. Alternatively, please feel free to contact me should you have any questions.\n\n&nbsp;\n<div>\n\nScott Pickering\nThe Pip Accumulator\n30th April&nbsp;2016\nhttp://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\n\n</div>\n<div>\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>DISCLAIMER:</strong></span>\n\nFLASH, RADAR, FUNDAMENTAL and POSITION &nbsp;trade set-ups, “Tweets” and “Trade ideas” that are posted in my blogs or on Twitter are trades and set-ups that interest me. They are provided for training and informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as an offer, solicitation or recommendation of any specific security or investment strategy. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading Forex carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade any such leveraged products you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin, and seek advice from an independent financial adviser if you have any doubts.\n\n</div>\n</div>\n</div>\n</div></div>','HISTORY & PERFORMANCE of the PREMIUM SERVICE','','inherit','open','closed','','3012-autosave-v1','','','2016-05-06 18:48:04','2016-05-06 23:48:04','',3012,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/3012-autosave-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(3017,16,'2014-01-17 16:38:13','2014-01-17 21:38:13','','HISTORY & PERFORMANCE','','publish','open','closed','','3017','','','2016-12-05 11:39:21','2016-12-05 16:39:21','',0,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?p=3017',2,'nav_menu_item','',0),(7847,16,'2016-05-09 10:43:32','2016-05-09 15:43:32','[s2If current_user_is(administrator)]\r\n    Hello Site Administrator you can access all content :)\r\n[/s2If]\r\n[s2If current_user_is(s2member_level4)]\r\n    <section class=\"clearfix\">\r\n\r\n<div class=\"one-fourth first membership\">\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/premium-service-annual-subscription-renewal/\"><img src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/Annual-Subscription-renewal.jpg\" alt=\"Premium Service Annual Subscription-renewal\" width=\"400\"  class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-7748\" /></a><h3>Premium Service Annual Renewal</h3><h2 class=\"price\">CAD $1000.00</h2>\r\n<a class=\"button\" type=\"button\" href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/premium-service-annual-subscription-renewal/\"> Buy Now</a>\r\n</div>\r\n</section>\r\n[/s2If]\r\n\r\n[s2If current_user_is(s2member_level2)]\r\n    Please renew your Premium Service Subscription after logging out\r\n[/s2If]\r\n[s2If !is_user_logged_in()]\r\n<section class=\"clearfix\">\r\n\r\n<div class=\"one-fourth first membership\">\r\n<a href=\"./premium-service-4-weeks-subscription\"><img src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/1-Month-Subscriptions.jpg\" alt=\"Premium Service 1-Month-Subscription\" width=\"400\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-7744\" /></a><h3>One Month Subscription</h3><h2 class=\"price\">CAD $240.00</h2>\r\n<a class=\"button\" type=\"button\" href=\"./premium-service-4-weeks-subscription\"> Buy Now</a>\r\n</div>\r\n\r\n<div class=\"one-fourth membership\">\r\n<a href=\"./premium-service-10-weeks-subscription\"><img src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/3-Months-Subscription.jpg\" alt=\"Premium Service 3-Months-Subscription\" width=\"400\"  class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-7745\" /></a><h3>3 Months Subscription</h3><h2 class=\"price\">CAD $500.00</h2>\r\n<a class=\"button\" type=\"button\" href=\"./premium-service-10-weeks-subscription\"> Buy Now</a>\r\n</div>\r\n\r\n<div class=\"one-fourth membership\">\r\n<a href=\"./premium-service-20-weeks-subscription\"><img src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/6-Months-Subscriptions.jpg\" alt=\"Premium Service 6-Months-Subscriptions\" width=\"400\"  class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-7746\" /></a><h3>6 Months Subscription</h3><h2 class=\"price\">CAD $750.00</h2>\r\n<a class=\"button\" type=\"button\" href=\"./premium-service-20-weeks-subscription\"> Buy Now</a>\r\n</div>\r\n\r\n<div class=\"one-fourth membership\">\r\n<a href=\"./premium-service-40-weeks-subscription\"><img src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/Annual-Subscription.jpg\" alt=\"Premium Service Annual-Subscription\" width=\"750\" height=\"750\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-7747\" /></a><h3>Annual Subscription</h3><h2 class=\"price\">CAD $1250.00</h2>\r\n<a class=\"button\" type=\"button\" href=\"./premium-service-40-weeks-subscription\"> Buy Now</a>\r\n</div>\r\n</section>\r\n[/s2If]','Subscription Options','','inherit','closed','closed','','7749-revision-v1','','','2016-05-09 10:43:32','2016-05-09 15:43:32','',7749,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/7749-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(2718,16,'2014-01-13 09:44:35','2014-01-13 14:44:35','<section class=\"one-half first radar\">\r\n<h2>This Month</h2>\r\n<table>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td colspan=\"9\">THE PREMIUM SERVICE - RADAR TRADES<br />\r\nLIMIT ORDERS - WITH TRIGGERED ENTRIES\r\n</td>\r\n<td colspan=\"2\">&nbsp;</td>\r\n<td colspan=\"3\">MONTH:<br />\r\nJANUARY 2014\r\n</td>\r\n</tr>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td>TRADE #</td>\r\n<td>PAIR</td>\r\n<td>L/S</td>\r\n<td>TRIGGER Y/N</td>\r\n<td>ALERT DATE</td>\r\n<td>ENTRY DATE</td>\r\n<td>ENTRY PRICE</td>\r\n<td>PROFIT TARGET</td>\r\n<td>STOP  LOSS</td>\r\n<td>EXIT DATE</td>\r\n<td>EXIT PRICE</td>\r\n<td>PIP LOSS</td>\r\n<td>PIP PROFIT</td>\r\n<td>STILL ACTIVE</td>\r\n</tr>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td>RT01</td>\r\n<td>USD/CHF</td>\r\n<td>L</td>\r\n<td>&NBSP;</td>\r\n<td>6th</td>\r\n<td>&nbsp;</td>\r\n<td>0.9000</td>\r\n<td>0.9300</td>\r\n<td>0.8950</td>\r\n<td>&nbsp;</td>\r\n<td>&nbsp;</td>\r\n<td>&nbsp;</td>\r\n<td>&nbsp;</td>\r\n<td>&nbsp;</td>\r\n</tr>\r\n\r\n</table>\r\n</section>\r\n<section class=\"one-half\">\r\n</section>','Radar Trades 2014','','publish','open','closed','','radar-trades-2014','','','2014-01-13 10:08:45','2014-01-13 15:08:45','',0,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?page_id=2718',0,'page','',0),(2761,16,'2016-05-05 10:21:27','2016-05-05 15:21:27','<section class=\"one-sixth first\">\n<h4>Flash Trades Archives:</h4>\n</section><section class=\"five-sixths\">\n<div class=\"one-half first\">\n<h2>This Month\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/FLASH1-30042016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7694\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/FLASH1-30042016.png\" alt=\"FLASH1 30042016\" width=\"503\" height=\"589\" /></a>\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/FLASH2-30042016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7695\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/FLASH2-30042016.png\" alt=\"FLASH2 30042016\" width=\"503\" height=\"586\" /></a></h2>\n\n\n\n\n</div>\n<div class=\"one-half\">\n<h2>Year to date\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/FLASH-YTDAPRIL2016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7696\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/FLASH-YTDAPRIL2016.png\" alt=\"FLASH YTDAPRIL2016\" width=\"423\" height=\"453\" /></a></h2>\n&nbsp;\n\n&nbsp;\n<h2>PREVIOUS YEARS\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-6987\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/FLASH-2015-COMP.png\" alt=\"FLASH 2015 COMP\" width=\"544\" height=\"576\" /></h2>\n<h2><img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-4947\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/FLASH-YTD-31122014-.png\" alt=\"FLASH YTD 31122014\" width=\"509\" height=\"549\" /></h2>\n<h2></h2>\n</div>\n</section>','Flash Trades','','inherit','open','closed','','2711-autosave-v1','','','2016-05-05 10:21:27','2016-05-05 15:21:27','',2711,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/2711-autosave-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(2008,1,'2013-10-05 23:52:27','2013-10-06 04:52:27','','photo','','inherit','open','closed','','photo','','','2013-10-05 23:52:27','2013-10-06 04:52:27','',0,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/photo.jpg',0,'attachment','image/jpeg',0),(2927,16,'2014-01-16 09:32:08','2014-01-16 14:32:08','04.01.2014\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">1. INTRODUCTION:</span></b>\r\n\r\nHappy New Year one and all, I trust that this blog finds everyone in good health and raring to get trading started in 2014, that is if like me you are still a 2014 trading virgin\r\n\r\nThis blog will be shorter than usual and will be a “Scott look at 2014” with my initial trading thoughts for this year. In addition, I will also provide you with an update on the launch of the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\nThe normal blog will return next weekend and will continue until the PREMIUM SERVICE is launched.\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">2.  MY VIEWS ON THE USD MAJORS THIS COMING YEAR 2014:</span></b>\r\n\r\nOver the holidays I have had plenty of time to sit back and strategize on my approach to 2014 and how it will vary from last year.\r\n\r\nThe major change in my recent trading style and strategy was brought about by the way the markets pushed and pulled traders around based on zero long term momentum, trend or direction. Inter-market correlations matter and count. There were huge disconnects in the second half of 2013.\r\n\r\nI see this disconnect continuing, hence my forward thinking into 2014 shows disconnects between the majors. My thoughts are that there will be more extended periods when currencies will act independently this year. Correlations will come and go.\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong>Typical examples of “the disconnect” are the following correlations: -</strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong> USD / Gold</strong>\r\n<strong> AUD / NZD</strong>\r\n<strong> Commodity currencies / equities</strong>\r\n<strong> EUR / GBP</strong>\r\n<strong> CAD / USD</strong>\r\n<strong> JPY / S&amp;P</strong>\r\n<strong> AUD &amp; NZD / Copper</strong>\r\n<strong> EUR / CHF</strong>\r\n<strong> EUR/GBP<span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">/ GBP/CHF</span></strong>\r\n<strong> JPY &amp; CHF / Gold</strong></p>\r\nI know that it may be corny and you have probably read lots of 2014 predictions already, but I still want to do one, which, I will refer back to each quarter during 2014. I have not traded this year so far, I have just been looking at charts reading and listening to various pieces in the media and on the web.\r\n\r\nI will for the purpose of review during this year go through each USD major one by one with thoughts associated to that currency pair.\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">EUR/USD:</span></b>\r\n\r\nMy initial thoughts are that whilst I am a fundamental trader at heart and I believe this to be a good thing, it did impair my trading a little in 2013. Without doubt along with many traders fundamentally the belief was always that the EUR/USD was over-priced and that a correction lower was always on the cards towards to 1.2500 area. Even with a surprise rate cut late in 2013 we never really broke lower than 1.3000 last year.\r\n\r\nThe Eurozone is still starved of economic growth and there are many, many economic and social problems spread throughout the Eurozone.\r\n\r\nMy short list of issues facing the Eurozone is highlighted below: -\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"> <i>AUSTERITY\r\n</i><i>GDP\r\n</i><i style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">UNEMPLOYMENT\r\n</i><i style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">HOUSING\r\n</i><i style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">LOW CPi\r\n</i><i style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">DEFLATION\r\n</i><i style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">BAD DEBT\r\n</i><i style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">SOCIAL UNREST\r\n</i><i style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">SOCIAL SERVICES\r\n</i><i style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">HEALTH CUTBACKS</i></p>\r\nThe monthly EUR/USD chart below shows that despite the Eurozone negative talk (and I have done my fair share) the pair is extremely resilient. There are more green monthly candlestick bars than red ones; in fact, it’s a 66/33 ratio in 2013 green over red. This hardly shows a currency pair under threat for most of the time. The chart also shows that a longer term bearish down sloping channel is still in play. As you can see we are most definitely at the higher reaches of the channel almost breaking it over the recent holidays.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/EURUSD-M-04012014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-2459\" alt=\"EURUSD M 04012014\" src=\"http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/EURUSD-M-04012014-1024x516.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"516\" /></a>\r\n\r\nWith the above in mind, I am expecting that equity markets will pullback and aid USD strength, plus do not forget that “Tapering” has started and this is a major shift in FED policy. These two events will drive the EUR/USD lower,\r\n\r\nAdditionally, with the ECB under Draghi’s leadership and Merkel the puppet mistress at the controls they have yet to properly attack under funded banks, deflation and negative growth in the periphery. So far ECB hot air has kept the markets reasonably happy, but only to a point. Sooner or later a full-on bond-buying scheme like the FED’s QE programme will be required to add liquidity to the Eurozone economies, which should provide the necessary fuel to initiate growth. The banks need to lend to underpin the future prospects of the Eurozone.  I am not sure the LTRO approach will actually give the gusto required. To me, a further LTRO is yet another can being kicked down the road.\r\n\r\nDuring 2014 I think that Brussels will run out of cans to kick down the road and the Belgium hospitality industry should be a great investment. The reason for this investment tip is clear, as we will have umpteen Cheese and Wine ECB and Eurozone crisis meetings to finally fix things once and for all. Improvements in the U.S, will highlight how bad the Eurozone economy is in general in comparison and this will fuel the fire to demand action.\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">My EUR/USD prediction: -</span></b>\r\nWith the above happening, I see the EUR/USD trading below 1.3000 by the year-end; initially I see a test of the 1.2500/1.2600 lows.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">GBP/USD:</span></b>\r\n\r\nWithout doubt, the recovery in the UK was for me the joker in the pack towards the end of 2013. Carney (Bank of England, Governor) is doing his best to keep a lid on matters but the UK unlike the Eurozone and the U.S. is NOT suffering from a deflationary set of economic statistics. Whilst some economic data is patchy there is no denial that the UK is on a better economic footing than the Eurozone. It highlights that the one size fits all approach of the Eurozone does NOT work.\r\n\r\nThe chart below shows the 2008 high of the GBP/USD just over an exchange rate of 2.000, just before the BOE Inflation hearing from the then governor Merv “The Swerve” King. It dropped on his statement for 6 straight months to 1.3520.\r\n\r\nWe are now in a channel from 1.5000 to 1.6900.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/GBPUSD-M-04012014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-2460\" alt=\"GBPUSD M 04012014\" src=\"http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/GBPUSD-M-04012014-1024x516.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"516\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">My GBP/USD prediction: -</span></b>\r\nCross–rates I am hoping will be my big trades in 2014 (see much more later). I feel that if the EUR/USD falls, the EUR/GBP will go with it and the GBP/USD which used to drop in sympathy with the EUR, will this year instead rise and I am predicting a re-test of the 61.8% retracement of the big monthly move on the chart above of 1.8250 will take place. The EUR/GBP is crucial to this predicted move. Should this move happen some great unwinds of cross-rates will happen and 2014 could be an excellent trading year with momentum and direction.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">AUD/USD:</span></b>\r\n\r\nThe worst kept secret in the Central Bank Governors world is out...RBA Governor Stevens wants the AUD currency weakened and he sees a AUD/USD exchange rate of about 0.8500 as a rate for the markets to aim for. Without doubt the equity markets will have the ultimate say here but tapering in the U.S. has started and equities should come under pressure, which, should force this pair lower.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/AUDUSD-M-04012014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-2462\" alt=\"AUDUSD M 04012014\" src=\"http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/AUDUSD-M-04012014-1024x516.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"516\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">My AUD/USD prediction: -</span></b>\r\n\r\nI see the 50% retracement on the monthly chart above as the initial target and after that 0.8000 as the second objective in 2014 for this pair. This pair will yo-yo a bit given the fact of its relationship to the equity markets but the RBA is determined to weaken the AUD currency. If you learn anything…never argue or trade against a central bank.\r\nIn addition do not forget Gold, Copper and China. All three have huge impacts on this currency pair. Gold is under pressure because as a hedge against inflation, there is zero inflation to worry about so it is overpriced. It tested critical $1180.00 support over the holidays and bounced but it will re-test again. A break lower will take the AUD/USD with it. <span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">These factors make my 0.8000 target in 2014 look pretty tame.</span>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">NZD/USD:</span></b>\r\n\r\nContrary to the AUD, the RBNZ Governor Wheeler “the dealer” wants to raise rates and send the NZD higher in 2014 to control bubbles in the New Zealand economy. I can feel a cross-rate sermon coming on again. The AUD/NZD will be a focus for me in 2014, given that the RBA and RBNZ are on different paths.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/NZDUSD-M-04012014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-2461\" alt=\"NZDUSD M 04012014\" src=\"http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/NZDUSD-M-04012014-1024x516.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"516\" /></a>\r\n\r\nLooking at the chart above and taking into considering equities, Gold, Copper and China. Common sense tells me that this pair should follow the AUD/USD lower, but I am 100% convinced. The cross-rate effect on the AUD/NZD could keep this pair well supported and inflated, add to this the RBNZ desire to raise rates and this pair could stay in the lofty heights of 0.7800 to 0.8800 for the year.\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">My NZD/USD prediction: -</span></b>\r\n\r\nThis is hard to write as for most of 2013 I have been trying to short this pair almost continually. This year for reasons already stated (RBA determination and the AUD/NZD cross-rate effect) I believe this pair will be the surprise and stay above 0.7800. I see a test of all-time highs being on the cards if the RBA forces the AUD lower and directly intervenes. Do not rule that out.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">USD/JPY:</span></b>\r\n\r\nIt is very easy to say 110.00 and maybe 120.00 is the target for this pair in 2014. Given the reputations and testicles on the chopping block, plus the amount of YEN being thrown at the markets an exchange rate of 120.00 seems achievable in the long term. The BOJ has committed considerably more funds than BEN at his best at the FED ever did.  It would therefore be brave nay foolish to stand in front of the USD/JPY freight train whilst the currency pair weakens to places not seen for years. Having written this, I think in true forex style we need to back test a breakout first before heading higher to the dizzy heights where the air is thin!!\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/USDJPY-M-04012014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-2465\" alt=\"USDJPY M 04012014\" src=\"http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/USDJPY-M-04012014-1024x516.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"516\" /></a>\r\n\r\nThe monthly chart above shows the move from the highs of 124.23-pre financial crisis to the lows of 75.47-post financial crisis.\r\n\r\nA test of the 61.8% retracement seems to be on the cards at 105.59. This will be huge resistance.\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">My USD/JPY prediction: -</span></b>\r\n\r\nBreakouts are nearly almost always re-tested for validity. I believe that the USD/JPY will re-test lower than 100.00, probably 98.00 which was a major psychological number on the way higher and lower with this pair. After a test of 98.00 we head higher (Yen weakness). Equities will play their part taking this pair lower.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">USD/CHF:</span></b>\r\n\r\nBasically, we have been held by 0.8750 for the past two years and we recently re-tested this low to bounce off it. If my Eurozone issues are predicted correctly I see this pair heading higher once again. This pair is one of my long, long, longer term trades for 2014, and I am looking to buy on a dip very soon.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/USDCHF-M-04012014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-2464\" alt=\"USDCHF M 04012014\" src=\"http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/USDCHF-M-04012014-1024x516.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"516\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">My USD/CHF prediction: -</span></b>\r\n\r\nIf the EUR/USD falls as predicted this pair will test parity in 2014. A break through resistance at 0.9415 will give my prediction the weight it needs to push onwards and upwards.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">USD/CAD:</span></b>\r\n\r\nThis is the most stubborn pain in the ass currency pair in the market, for me to follow anyway. I do however see that this pair should stay above parity in 2014. I think that we move higher as equities fall and then as equities stabilize later in 2014 we will pullback a little.\r\nThe monthly chart below shows that we are in an uptrend off the lows of 0.9640, to me I see this pattern continuing as we re-test higher levels.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/USDCAD-M-04012014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-2463\" alt=\"USDCAD M 04012014\" src=\"http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/USDCAD-M-04012014-1024x516.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"516\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">My USD/CAD prediction: -</span></b>\r\n\r\nThere may be a re-test of the bullish trend line on the chart above but I do feel overall that we will be re-testing the 50% and maybe even the 61.8% Fibonacci levels of 1.1200 and 1.1665.\r\n\r\n<b style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">3. MY KEY FOCUS IN 2014:</span></b>\r\n\r\nYou would have noticed in the later blogs of 2013 my trading style and emphasis on what to trade took on a new direction.\r\n\r\nThe main reason for this was due to disconnects in the marketplace. Fundamentals count, but so do inter-market relationships/correlations. There were so many disconnects in 2013, I had to adjust my way of thinking and trading. I see this continuing in 2014 as well as this has been reflected already in the way I view the moves in the USD majors. There is a knock-on effect and this is my key focus this year.\r\n\r\nThe lack of momentum and direction in the USD majors, in particular, since the summer last year, required me to focus on a different style of trading. The push and pull moves for no reason, were frankly just annoying me, and, news events or poor news sound-bytes were causing wild swings in the major pairs that were just crazy and on many occasions based on nothing concrete, or remotely resembling factual data.\r\n\r\nThis prompted the introduction of pull-back strategy trades I called FLASH TRADES, and, a more disciplined approach to longer-term trades that I defined as RADAR TRADES.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>RADAR TRADES: These are pre-meditated limit order trades. I hope that these will be longer-term trades.</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>FLASH TRADES: These are more of an intra-day trade. They may develop into “Swing style” trades but will probably be more short term.</strong><strong> </strong></p>\r\nAt the same time, I started to look more and more at cross-rate pairs and exotic crosses. These were largely successful from September 2013. This focus will continue in 2014. I will still trade the majors, but I think more from a FLASH TRADE perspective. My initial focus in 2014 will be to look at the cross-rates. My primary reason for this is that since 2008 these pairs have largely been directionally lower as equities have risen to all time highs. When equities roll over “The unwinding will begin”. With the commodity currencies it has already started and there are 1,000’s of pips still available. We will be unwinding 5 and 6 years of moves.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Be prepared for many trades in the following pairs in 2014: -</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"> EUR/AUD\r\nGBP/AUD\r\nEUR/NZD\r\nGBP/NZD\r\nEUR/CAD\r\nGBP/CAD</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">Plus the\r\nAUD/NZD\r\nEUR/GBP\r\nAUD/CHF\r\n<span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">NZD/CHF</span></p>\r\nThe moves can be wild in most of these pairs as they are not well-funded but they can be very directional with risk off or risk on conditions and offer good returns. The key is to take smaller positions with wider stops to cope with the volatility. A point to note is that these pairs can be very costly overnight carry trades. To trade these we will have to be clever, at the same time I will be assessing risk prior to entries to ensure minimum risk maximum profitability ratios.\r\n\r\nTrading these pairs is all about a trading discipline\r\n\r\nLook my trading style - it’s simple: -\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>FUNDAMENTALS MATTER TO ME</i></strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>I TRADE TO MAKE MONEY…NOT TO PICK TOPS OR BOTTOMS</i></strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>I TRADE LOW RISK</i></strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>I DO NOT CHASE MARKETS</i></strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>I LIKE THE TRADES TO COME TO ME</i></strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>I AM NOT A GREEDY TRADER</i></strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>I LIKE TO TRADE MOMENTUMS IN THE DIRECTION OF TRENDS</i></strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>I USE FIBONACCI LEVELS TO ENTER &amp; EXIT ON MANY TRADES</i></strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>PLUS...</i></strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>MY TRADING STYLE IS MIXED EVEN WITH THE ABOVE KEY BASICS</i></strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>I USE THE PULLBACK STRATEGY TO ENTER AND I LIKE SWING AND LONGER-TERM TRADES (WHEN POSSIBLE)</i></strong></p>\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">4. MAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:</span></b>\r\n\r\nSUNDAY: N/A\r\n\r\nMONDAY: USD – ISM Non- Manufacturing PMi.\r\nMONDAY: AUD – Trade Balance.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: CAD – Trade Balance\r\nTUESDAY: USD – Trade Balance\r\nTUESDAY: CNY – CPi, GDP and Trade Balance.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – ADP Non- Farm Employment change and FOMC minutes.\r\nWEDNESDAY: AUD – Retail Sales.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: GBP – Interest Rates\r\nTHURSDAY: EUR – Interest Rates and ECB Press Conference.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: CAD – Employment rates/changes\r\nFRIDAY: USD – Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Rates.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">5. THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</span></b>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU</span></b><b>\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">PREMIUM SERVICE  2014 </span></b>\r\n\r\nI am still working with my software developer to have this addition to the WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU ready within the next two weeks. My intention is to launch the PREMIUM SERVICE subscription service as soon as the markets revert back to normal liquidity.\r\n\r\nWe have noticed however that a number people have tried to register already., For anyone who has tried to register their details were deleted by the system under beta testing and even if you believe that you have an existing login or username that is not the case. As soon as I write announcing that the PREMIUM SERVICE is ready, sorry, but you will have to register again.\r\n\r\nFor those new readers below I detail the salient points regarding the premium service: -\r\n\r\nAs soon as the PREMIUM SERVICE is launched THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU in its current format will change. It will remain a weekly blog post although it will be more concise in length.\r\n\r\nMy “RADAR and FLASH TRADES” will now only be available via the Premium Service. In addition, “TRADE IDEAS &amp; SET UPS” that are tweeted will now only be available to Premium Service subscribers by email and in addition they can be viewed inside the secure section of my website.\r\n\r\nBelow as examples of the RADAR and FLASH TRADES excel spreadsheets I show the monthly statements for December 2013. (These were real trades that were tweeted or posted in this blog).\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru//wp-content/uploads/2013/12/RADAR-TRADES-21122013.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-2379\" alt=\"RADAR TRADES 21122013\" src=\"http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/RADAR-TRADES-21122013.png\" width=\"455\" height=\"460\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/FLASH-TRADES-21122013.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-2378\" alt=\"FLASH TRADES 21122013\" src=\"http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/FLASH-TRADES-21122013.png\" width=\"411\" height=\"437\" /></a>\r\n\r\nIn 2013, feedback from subscribers to the “Drive-Thru”, or from readers of the blog via Google+, LinkedIn or Twitter have been raising many questions about Forex Trading in general, such as: -\r\n\r\n</p><p align=\"center\"><b> </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Placing Stops</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Strategies on entry and exit</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Working with a Trade Plan</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>What is a Trade Plan?</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Risk Assessment</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>When to fade trades</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>How to cost average effectively</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>How to use Trade Zones effectively - Buy Zones and Sell zones</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Working with Fibonacci levels</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>How to find a good broker to partner with</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Chart analysis</b></p>\r\nInside the secure area of my website, you will be able to reference information on all of the above topics plus much more. The library of information will grow during 2014 and my goal is to provide a comprehensive support area to traders of all experience levels. The PREMIUM SERVICE in its secure area will be a learning and reference area to subscribers.\r\n\r\nI am also looking to offer training and information based “Webinars” to Premium Service subscription members, if I have sufficient participants. These will be fee based to cover costs.\r\n\r\nWhilst upon first look, it may appear that the Premium Service is directed solely at new traders, or those with intermediate skill levels, please note this is not my intention. Trading can be lonely, and sometimes it is good to feel that you are part of a team. With this in mind, I am thinking that a “Chat Room” style area would be of benefit to all traders to share ideas and trade set-ups. Plus, whether a new trader or experienced trader it is always good to have a library of information available close at hand.\r\n\r\nWhat are the costs of membership?\r\n\r\nThere will be 40 weekly blogs / issues per year (I will not write in the Summer and over Christmas periods), with an unlimited amount of follow ups during the week to review and act upon “Radar Trades” and issues emanating from previous blogs. In addition trade ideas for trades already in play would also be part of the service, as I will be trading the posted set-ups.\r\n\r\nI do not want to become a finance administrator on a daily basis so I want to keep the subscription options as few as possible.\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>ANNUAL (40 WEEK) SUBSCRIPTION: $750.00 (this equates to $18.75 per week) </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>20 WEEKS SUBSCRIPTION: $450.00 (this equates to $22.50 per week) </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>10 WEEKS SUBSCRIPTION: $250.00 (this equates to $25.00 per week) </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>(ALL FEES ARE IN USD)</b></p>\r\nShould you have any questions regarding the PREMIUM SERVICE please email me at premiumservice@thepipaccumulator.com\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">9. FINAL THOUGHTS:</span></b>\r\n\r\nIt is a busy week for my first week back in the saddle.\r\n\r\nWe should see liquidity come back to the market this week and currency moves should be more sustainable.\r\n\r\nI will be posting RADAR and FLASH trade set ups via twitter as the week progresses and they will be performance measured via spreadsheets in next week blog.\r\n\r\nUntil we reach full liquidity if you are going to trade keep the positions smaller.\r\n\r\nGood luck,\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nSaturday January 4<sup>th</sup> 2014\r\n\r\nEMAIL / FOLLOW ME AT:\r\n<a href=\"mailto:drivethru@thepipaccumulator.com\">drivethru@thepipaccumulator.com\r\n</a>Twitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n<span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">Google+/scottpickering\r\n</span><span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">StockTwits; thepipaccumulator</span>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','MY TRADE IDEAS AND THOUGHTS LOOKING FORWARD AT 2014','','inherit','open','closed','','2456-revision-v1','','','2014-01-16 09:32:08','2014-01-16 14:32:08','',2456,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/2456-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(2925,16,'2014-01-16 09:29:53','2014-01-16 14:29:53','04.01.2014\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">1. INTRODUCTION:</span></b>\r\n\r\nHappy New Year one and all, I trust that this blog finds everyone in good health and raring to get trading started in 2014, that is if like me you are still a 2014 trading virgin\r\n\r\nThis blog will be shorter than usual and will be a “Scott look at 2014” with my initial trading thoughts for this year. In addition, I will also provide you with an update on the launch of the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\nThe normal blog will return next weekend and will continue until the PREMIUM SERVICE is launched.\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">2.  MY VIEWS ON THE USD MAJORS THIS COMING YEAR 2014:</span></b>\r\n\r\nOver the holidays I have had plenty of time to sit back and strategize on my approach to 2014 and how it will vary from last year.\r\n\r\nThe major change in my recent trading style and strategy was brought about by the way the markets pushed and pulled traders around based on zero long term momentum, trend or direction. Inter-market correlations matter and count. There were huge disconnects in the second half of 2013.\r\n\r\nI see this disconnect continuing, hence my forward thinking into 2014 shows disconnects between the majors. My thoughts are that there will be more extended periods when currencies will act independently this year. Correlations will come and go.\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong>Typical examples of “the disconnect” are the following correlations: -</strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong> USD / Gold</strong>\r\n<strong> AUD / NZD</strong>\r\n<strong> Commodity currencies / equities</strong>\r\n<strong> EUR / GBP</strong>\r\n<strong> CAD / USD</strong>\r\n<strong> JPY / S&amp;P</strong>\r\n<strong> AUD &amp; NZD / Copper</strong>\r\n<strong> EUR / CHF</strong>\r\n<strong> EUR/GBP<span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">/ GBP/CHF</span></strong>\r\n<strong> JPY &amp; CHF / Gold</strong></p>\r\nI know that it may be corny and you have probably read lots of 2014 predictions already, but I still want to do one, which, I will refer back to each quarter during 2014. I have not traded this year so far, I have just been looking at charts reading and listening to various pieces in the media and on the web.\r\n\r\nI will for the purpose of review during this year go through each USD major one by one with thoughts associated to that currency pair.\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">EUR/USD:</span></b>\r\n\r\nMy initial thoughts are that whilst I am a fundamental trader at heart and I believe this to be a good thing, it did impair my trading a little in 2013. Without doubt along with many traders fundamentally the belief was always that the EUR/USD was over-priced and that a correction lower was always on the cards towards to 1.2500 area. Even with a surprise rate cut late in 2013 we never really broke lower than 1.3000 last year.\r\n\r\nThe Eurozone is still starved of economic growth and there are many, many economic and social problems spread throughout the Eurozone.\r\n\r\nMy short list of issues facing the Eurozone is highlighted below: -\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"> <i>AUSTERITY\r\n</i><i>GDP\r\n</i><i style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">UNEMPLOYMENT\r\n</i><i style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">HOUSING\r\n</i><i style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">LOW CPi\r\n</i><i style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">DEFLATION\r\n</i><i style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">BAD DEBT\r\n</i><i style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">SOCIAL UNREST\r\n</i><i style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">SOCIAL SERVICES\r\n</i><i style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">HEALTH CUTBACKS</i></p>\r\nThe monthly EUR/USD chart below shows that despite the Eurozone negative talk (and I have done my fair share) the pair is extremely resilient. There are more green monthly candlestick bars than red ones; in fact, it’s a 66/33 ratio in 2013 green over red. This hardly shows a currency pair under threat for most of the time. The chart also shows that a longer term bearish down sloping channel is still in play. As you can see we are most definitely at the higher reaches of the channel almost breaking it over the recent holidays.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/EURUSD-M-04012014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-2459\" alt=\"EURUSD M 04012014\" src=\"http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/EURUSD-M-04012014-1024x516.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"516\" /></a>\r\n\r\nWith the above in mind, I am expecting that equity markets will pullback and aid USD strength, plus do not forget that “Tapering” has started and this is a major shift in FED policy. These two events will drive the EUR/USD lower,\r\n\r\nAdditionally, with the ECB under Draghi’s leadership and Merkel the puppet mistress at the controls they have yet to properly attack under funded banks, deflation and negative growth in the periphery. So far ECB hot air has kept the markets reasonably happy, but only to a point. Sooner or later a full-on bond-buying scheme like the FED’s QE programme will be required to add liquidity to the Eurozone economies, which should provide the necessary fuel to initiate growth. The banks need to lend to underpin the future prospects of the Eurozone.  I am not sure the LTRO approach will actually give the gusto required. To me, a further LTRO is yet another can being kicked down the road.\r\n\r\nDuring 2014 I think that Brussels will run out of cans to kick down the road and the Belgium hospitality industry should be a great investment. The reason for this investment tip is clear, as we will have umpteen Cheese and Wine ECB and Eurozone crisis meetings to finally fix things once and for all. Improvements in the U.S, will highlight how bad the Eurozone economy is in general in comparison and this will fuel the fire to demand action.\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">My EUR/USD prediction: -</span></b>\r\nWith the above happening, I see the EUR/USD trading below 1.3000 by the year-end; initially I see a test of the 1.2500/1.2600 lows.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">GBP/USD:</span></b>\r\n\r\nWithout doubt, the recovery in the UK was for me the joker in the pack towards the end of 2013. Carney (Bank of England, Governor) is doing his best to keep a lid on matters but the UK unlike the Eurozone and the U.S. is NOT suffering from a deflationary set of economic statistics. Whilst some economic data is patchy there is no denial that the UK is on a better economic footing than the Eurozone. It highlights that the one size fits all approach of the Eurozone does NOT work.\r\n\r\nThe chart below shows the 2008 high of the GBP/USD just over an exchange rate of 2.000, just before the BOE Inflation hearing from the then governor Merv “The Swerve” King. It dropped on his statement for 6 straight months to 1.3520.\r\n\r\nWe are now in a channel from 1.5000 to 1.6900.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/GBPUSD-M-04012014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-2460\" alt=\"GBPUSD M 04012014\" src=\"http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/GBPUSD-M-04012014-1024x516.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"516\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">My GBP/USD prediction: -</span></b>\r\nCross–rates I am hoping will be my big trades in 2014 (see much more later). I feel that if the EUR/USD falls, the EUR/GBP will go with it and the GBP/USD which used to drop in sympathy with the EUR, will this year instead rise and I am predicting a re-test of the 61.8% retracement of the big monthly move on the chart above of 1.8250 will take place. The EUR/GBP is crucial to this predicted move. Should this move happen some great unwinds of cross-rates will happen and 2014 could be an excellent trading year with momentum and direction.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">AUD/USD:</span></b>\r\n\r\nThe worst kept secret in the Central Bank Governors world is out...RBA Governor Stevens wants the AUD currency weakened and he sees a AUD/USD exchange rate of about 0.8500 as a rate for the markets to aim for. Without doubt the equity markets will have the ultimate say here but tapering in the U.S. has started and equities should come under pressure, which, should force this pair lower.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/AUDUSD-M-04012014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-2462\" alt=\"AUDUSD M 04012014\" src=\"http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/AUDUSD-M-04012014-1024x516.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"516\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">My AUD/USD prediction: -</span></b>\r\n\r\nI see the 50% retracement on the monthly chart above as the initial target and after that 0.8000 as the second objective in 2014 for this pair. This pair will yo-yo a bit given the fact of its relationship to the equity markets but the RBA is determined to weaken the AUD currency. If you learn anything…never argue or trade against a central bank.\r\nIn addition do not forget Gold, Copper and China. All three have huge impacts on this currency pair. Gold is under pressure because as a hedge against inflation, there is zero inflation to worry about so it is overpriced. It tested critical $1180.00 support over the holidays and bounced but it will re-test again. A break lower will take the AUD/USD with it. <span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">These factors make my 0.8000 target in 2014 look pretty tame.</span>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">NZD/USD:</span></b>\r\n\r\nContrary to the AUD, the RBNZ Governor Wheeler “the dealer” wants to raise rates and send the NZD higher in 2014 to control bubbles in the New Zealand economy. I can feel a cross-rate sermon coming on again. The AUD/NZD will be a focus for me in 2014, given that the RBA and RBNZ are on different paths.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/NZDUSD-M-04012014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-2461\" alt=\"NZDUSD M 04012014\" src=\"http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/NZDUSD-M-04012014-1024x516.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"516\" /></a>\r\n\r\nLooking at the chart above and taking into considering equities, Gold, Copper and China. Common sense tells me that this pair should follow the AUD/USD lower, but I am 100% convinced. The cross-rate effect on the AUD/NZD could keep this pair well supported and inflated, add to this the RBNZ desire to raise rates and this pair could stay in the lofty heights of 0.7800 to 0.8800 for the year.\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">My NZD/USD prediction: -</span></b>\r\n\r\nThis is hard to write as for most of 2013 I have been trying to short this pair almost continually. This year for reasons already stated (RBA determination and the AUD/NZD cross-rate effect) I believe this pair will be the surprise and stay above 0.7800. I see a test of all-time highs being on the cards if the RBA forces the AUD lower and directly intervenes. Do not rule that out.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">USD/JPY:</span></b>\r\n\r\nIt is very easy to say 110.00 and maybe 120.00 is the target for this pair in 2014. Given the reputations and testicles on the chopping block, plus the amount of YEN being thrown at the markets an exchange rate of 120.00 seems achievable in the long term. The BOJ has committed considerably more funds than BEN at his best at the FED ever did.  It would therefore be brave nay foolish to stand in front of the USD/JPY freight train whilst the currency pair weakens to places not seen for years. Having written this, I think in true forex style we need to back test a breakout first before heading higher to the dizzy heights where the air is thin!!\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/USDJPY-M-04012014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-2465\" alt=\"USDJPY M 04012014\" src=\"http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/USDJPY-M-04012014-1024x516.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"516\" /></a>\r\n\r\nThe monthly chart above shows the move from the highs of 124.23-pre financial crisis to the lows of 75.47-post financial crisis.\r\n\r\nA test of the 61.8% retracement seems to be on the cards at 105.59. This will be huge resistance.\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">My USD/JPY prediction: -</span></b>\r\n\r\nBreakouts are nearly almost always re-tested for validity. I believe that the USD/JPY will re-test lower than 100.00, probably 98.00 which was a major psychological number on the way higher and lower with this pair. After a test of 98.00 we head higher (Yen weakness). Equities will play their part taking this pair lower.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">USD/CHF:</span></b>\r\n\r\nBasically, we have been held by 0.8750 for the past two years and we recently re-tested this low to bounce off it. If my Eurozone issues are predicted correctly I see this pair heading higher once again. This pair is one of my long, long, longer term trades for 2014, and I am looking to buy on a dip very soon.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/USDCHF-M-04012014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-2464\" alt=\"USDCHF M 04012014\" src=\"http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/USDCHF-M-04012014-1024x516.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"516\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">My USD/CHF prediction: -</span></b>\r\n\r\nIf the EUR/USD falls as predicted this pair will test parity in 2014. A break through resistance at 0.9415 will give my prediction the weight it needs to push onwards and upwards.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">USD/CAD:</span></b>\r\n\r\nThis is the most stubborn pain in the ass currency pair in the market, for me to follow anyway. I do however see that this pair should stay above parity in 2014. I think that we move higher as equities fall and then as equities stabilize later in 2014 we will pullback a little.\r\nThe monthly chart below shows that we are in an uptrend off the lows of 0.9640, to me I see this pattern continuing as we re-test higher levels.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/USDCAD-M-04012014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-2463\" alt=\"USDCAD M 04012014\" src=\"http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/USDCAD-M-04012014-1024x516.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"516\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">My USD/CAD prediction: -</span></b>\r\n\r\nThere may be a re-test of the bullish trend line on the chart above but I do feel overall that we will be re-testing the 50% and maybe even the 61.8% Fibonacci levels of 1.1200 and 1.1665.\r\n\r\n<b style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">3. MY KEY FOCUS IN 2014:</span></b>\r\n\r\nYou would have noticed in the later blogs of 2013 my trading style and emphasis on what to trade took on a new direction.\r\n\r\nThe main reason for this was due to disconnects in the marketplace. Fundamentals count, but so do inter-market relationships/correlations. There were so many disconnects in 2013, I had to adjust my way of thinking and trading. I see this continuing in 2014 as well as this has been reflected already in the way I view the moves in the USD majors. There is a knock-on effect and this is my key focus this year.\r\n\r\nThe lack of momentum and direction in the USD majors, in particular, since the summer last year, required me to focus on a different style of trading. The push and pull moves for no reason, were frankly just annoying me, and, news events or poor news sound-bytes were causing wild swings in the major pairs that were just crazy and on many occasions based on nothing concrete, or remotely resembling factual data.\r\n\r\nThis prompted the introduction of pull-back strategy trades I called FLASH TRADES, and, a more disciplined approach to longer-term trades that I defined as RADAR TRADES.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>RADAR TRADES: These are pre-meditated limit order trades. I hope that these will be longer-term trades.</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>FLASH TRADES: These are more of an intra-day trade. They may develop into “Swing style” trades but will probably be more short term.</strong><strong> </strong></p>\r\nAt the same time, I started to look more and more at cross-rate pairs and exotic crosses. These were largely successful from September 2013. This focus will continue in 2014. I will still trade the majors, but I think more from a FLASH TRADE perspective. My initial focus in 2014 will be to look at the cross-rates. My primary reason for this is that since 2008 these pairs have largely been directionally lower as equities have risen to all time highs. When equities roll over “The unwinding will begin”. With the commodity currencies it has already started and there are 1,000’s of pips still available. We will be unwinding 5 and 6 years of moves.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Be prepared for many trades in the following pairs in 2014: -</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"> EUR/AUD\r\nGBP/AUD\r\nEUR/NZD\r\nGBP/NZD\r\nEUR/CAD\r\nGBP/CAD</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">Plus the\r\nAUD/NZD\r\nEUR/GBP\r\nAUD/CHF\r\n<span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">NZD/CHF</span></p>\r\nThe moves can be wild in most of these pairs as they are not well-funded but they can be very directional with risk off or risk on conditions and offer good returns. The key is to take smaller positions with wider stops to cope with the volatility. A point to note is that these pairs can be very costly overnight carry trades. To trade these we will have to be clever, at the same time I will be assessing risk prior to entries to ensure minimum risk maximum profitability ratios.\r\n\r\nTrading these pairs is all about a trading discipline\r\n\r\nLook my trading style - it’s simple: -\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>FUNDAMENTALS MATTER TO ME</i></strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>I TRADE TO MAKE MONEY…NOT TO PICK TOPS OR BOTTOMS</i></strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>I TRADE LOW RISK</i></strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>I DO NOT CHASE MARKETS</i></strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>I LIKE THE TRADES TO COME TO ME</i></strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>I AM NOT A GREEDY TRADER</i></strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>I LIKE TO TRADE MOMENTUMS IN THE DIRECTION OF TRENDS</i></strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>I USE FIBONACCI LEVELS TO ENTER &amp; EXIT ON MANY TRADES</i></strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>PLUS...</i></strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>MY TRADING STYLE IS MIXED EVEN WITH THE ABOVE KEY BASICS</i></strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>I USE THE PULLBACK STRATEGY TO ENTER AND I LIKE SWING AND LONGER-TERM TRADES (WHEN POSSIBLE)</i></strong></p>\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">4. MAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:</span></b>\r\n\r\nSUNDAY: N/A\r\n\r\nMONDAY: USD – ISM Non- Manufacturing PMi.\r\nMONDAY: AUD – Trade Balance.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: CAD – Trade Balance\r\nTUESDAY: USD – Trade Balance\r\nTUESDAY: CNY – CPi, GDP and Trade Balance.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – ADP Non- Farm Employment change and FOMC minutes.\r\nWEDNESDAY: AUD – Retail Sales.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: GBP – Interest Rates\r\nTHURSDAY: EUR – Interest Rates and ECB Press Conference.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: CAD – Employment rates/changes\r\nFRIDAY: USD – Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Rates.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">5. THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</span></b>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU</span></b><b>\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">PREMIUM SERVICE  2014 </span></b>\r\n\r\nI am still working with my software developer to have this addition to the WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU ready within the next two weeks. My intention is to launch the PREMIUM SERVICE subscription service as soon as the markets revert back to normal liquidity.\r\n\r\nWe have noticed however that a number people have tried to register already., For anyone who has tried to register their details were deleted by the system under beta testing and even if you believe that you have an existing login or username that is not the case. As soon as I write announcing that the PREMIUM SERVICE is ready, sorry, but you will have to register again.\r\n\r\nFor those new readers below I detail the salient points regarding the premium service: -\r\n\r\nAs soon as the PREMIUM SERVICE is launched THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU in its current format will change. It will remain a weekly blog post although it will be more concise in length.\r\n\r\nMy “RADAR and FLASH TRADES” will now only be available via the Premium Service. In addition, “TRADE IDEAS &amp; SET UPS” that are tweeted will now only be available to Premium Service subscribers by email and in addition they can be viewed inside the secure section of my website.\r\n\r\nBelow as examples of the RADAR and FLASH TRADES excel spreadsheets I show the monthly statements for December 2013. (These were real trades that were tweeted or posted in this blog).\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/RADAR-TRADES-21122013.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-2379\" alt=\"RADAR TRADES 21122013\" src=\"http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/RADAR-TRADES-21122013.png\" width=\"455\" height=\"460\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/FLASH-TRADES-21122013.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-2378\" alt=\"FLASH TRADES 21122013\" src=\"http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/FLASH-TRADES-21122013.png\" width=\"411\" height=\"437\" /></a>\r\n\r\nIn 2013, feedback from subscribers to the “Drive-Thru”, or from readers of the blog via Google+, LinkedIn or Twitter have been raising many questions about Forex Trading in general, such as: -\r\n\r\n</p><p align=\"center\"><b> </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Placing Stops</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Strategies on entry and exit</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Working with a Trade Plan</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>What is a Trade Plan?</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Risk Assessment</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>When to fade trades</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>How to cost average effectively</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>How to use Trade Zones effectively - Buy Zones and Sell zones</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Working with Fibonacci levels</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>How to find a good broker to partner with</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Chart analysis</b></p>\r\nInside the secure area of my website, you will be able to reference information on all of the above topics plus much more. The library of information will grow during 2014 and my goal is to provide a comprehensive support area to traders of all experience levels. The PREMIUM SERVICE in its secure area will be a learning and reference area to subscribers.\r\n\r\nI am also looking to offer training and information based “Webinars” to Premium Service subscription members, if I have sufficient participants. These will be fee based to cover costs.\r\n\r\nWhilst upon first look, it may appear that the Premium Service is directed solely at new traders, or those with intermediate skill levels, please note this is not my intention. Trading can be lonely, and sometimes it is good to feel that you are part of a team. With this in mind, I am thinking that a “Chat Room” style area would be of benefit to all traders to share ideas and trade set-ups. Plus, whether a new trader or experienced trader it is always good to have a library of information available close at hand.\r\n\r\nWhat are the costs of membership?\r\n\r\nThere will be 40 weekly blogs / issues per year (I will not write in the Summer and over Christmas periods), with an unlimited amount of follow ups during the week to review and act upon “Radar Trades” and issues emanating from previous blogs. In addition trade ideas for trades already in play would also be part of the service, as I will be trading the posted set-ups.\r\n\r\nI do not want to become a finance administrator on a daily basis so I want to keep the subscription options as few as possible.\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>ANNUAL (40 WEEK) SUBSCRIPTION: $750.00 (this equates to $18.75 per week) </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>20 WEEKS SUBSCRIPTION: $450.00 (this equates to $22.50 per week) </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>10 WEEKS SUBSCRIPTION: $250.00 (this equates to $25.00 per week) </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>(ALL FEES ARE IN USD)</b></p>\r\nShould you have any questions regarding the PREMIUM SERVICE please email me at premiumservice@thepipaccumulator.com\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">9. FINAL THOUGHTS:</span></b>\r\n\r\nIt is a busy week for my first week back in the saddle.\r\n\r\nWe should see liquidity come back to the market this week and currency moves should be more sustainable.\r\n\r\nI will be posting RADAR and FLASH trade set ups via twitter as the week progresses and they will be performance measured via spreadsheets in next week blog.\r\n\r\nUntil we reach full liquidity if you are going to trade keep the positions smaller.\r\n\r\nGood luck,\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nSaturday January 4<sup>th</sup> 2014\r\n\r\nEMAIL / FOLLOW ME AT:\r\n<a href=\"mailto:drivethru@thepipaccumulator.com\">drivethru@thepipaccumulator.com\r\n</a>Twitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n<span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">Google+/scottpickering\r\n</span><span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">StockTwits; thepipaccumulator</span>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','MY TRADE IDEAS AND THOUGHTS LOOKING FORWARD AT 2014','','inherit','open','closed','','2456-revision-v1','','','2014-01-16 09:29:53','2014-01-16 14:29:53','',2456,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/2456-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(3093,16,'2014-01-20 15:26:15','2014-01-20 20:26:15','04.01.2014\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">1. INTRODUCTION:</span></b>\r\n\r\nHappy New Year one and all, I trust that this blog finds everyone in good health and raring to get trading started in 2014, that is if like me you are still a 2014 trading virgin\r\n\r\nThis blog will be shorter than usual and will be a “Scott look at 2014” with my initial trading thoughts for this year. In addition, I will also provide you with an update on the launch of the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\nThe normal blog will return next weekend and will continue until the PREMIUM SERVICE is launched.\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">2.  MY VIEWS ON THE USD MAJORS THIS COMING YEAR 2014:</span></b>\r\n\r\nOver the holidays I have had plenty of time to sit back and strategize on my approach to 2014 and how it will vary from last year.\r\n\r\nThe major change in my recent trading style and strategy was brought about by the way the markets pushed and pulled traders around based on zero long term momentum, trend or direction. Inter-market correlations matter and count. There were huge disconnects in the second half of 2013.\r\n\r\nI see this disconnect continuing, hence my forward thinking into 2014 shows disconnects between the majors. My thoughts are that there will be more extended periods when currencies will act independently this year. Correlations will come and go.\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong>Typical examples of “the disconnect” are the following correlations: -</strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong> USD / Gold</strong>\r\n<strong> AUD / NZD</strong>\r\n<strong> Commodity currencies / equities</strong>\r\n<strong> EUR / GBP</strong>\r\n<strong> CAD / USD</strong>\r\n<strong> JPY / S&amp;P</strong>\r\n<strong> AUD &amp; NZD / Copper</strong>\r\n<strong> EUR / CHF</strong>\r\n<strong> EUR/GBP<span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">/ GBP/CHF</span></strong>\r\n<strong> JPY &amp; CHF / Gold</strong></p>\r\nI know that it may be corny and you have probably read lots of 2014 predictions already, but I still want to do one, which, I will refer back to each quarter during 2014. I have not traded this year so far, I have just been looking at charts reading and listening to various pieces in the media and on the web.\r\n\r\nI will for the purpose of review during this year go through each USD major one by one with thoughts associated to that currency pair.\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">EUR/USD:</span></b>\r\n\r\nMy initial thoughts are that whilst I am a fundamental trader at heart and I believe this to be a good thing, it did impair my trading a little in 2013. Without doubt along with many traders fundamentally the belief was always that the EUR/USD was over-priced and that a correction lower was always on the cards towards to 1.2500 area. Even with a surprise rate cut late in 2013 we never really broke lower than 1.3000 last year.\r\n\r\nThe Eurozone is still starved of economic growth and there are many, many economic and social problems spread throughout the Eurozone.\r\n\r\nMy short list of issues facing the Eurozone is highlighted below: -\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"> <i>AUSTERITY\r\n</i><i>GDP\r\n</i><i style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">UNEMPLOYMENT\r\n</i><i style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">HOUSING\r\n</i><i style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">LOW CPi\r\n</i><i style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">DEFLATION\r\n</i><i style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">BAD DEBT\r\n</i><i style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">SOCIAL UNREST\r\n</i><i style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">SOCIAL SERVICES\r\n</i><i style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">HEALTH CUTBACKS</i></p>\r\nThe monthly EUR/USD chart below shows that despite the Eurozone negative talk (and I have done my fair share) the pair is extremely resilient. There are more green monthly candlestick bars than red ones; in fact, it’s a 66/33 ratio in 2013 green over red. This hardly shows a currency pair under threat for most of the time. The chart also shows that a longer term bearish down sloping channel is still in play. As you can see we are most definitely at the higher reaches of the channel almost breaking it over the recent holidays.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/EURUSD-M-04012014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-2459\" alt=\"EURUSD M 04012014\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/EURUSD-M-04012014.png\" width=\"660\" /></a>\r\n\r\nWith the above in mind, I am expecting that equity markets will pullback and aid USD strength, plus do not forget that “Tapering” has started and this is a major shift in FED policy. These two events will drive the EUR/USD lower,\r\n\r\nAdditionally, with the ECB under Draghi’s leadership and Merkel the puppet mistress at the controls they have yet to properly attack under funded banks, deflation and negative growth in the periphery. So far ECB hot air has kept the markets reasonably happy, but only to a point. Sooner or later a full-on bond-buying scheme like the FED’s QE programme will be required to add liquidity to the Eurozone economies, which should provide the necessary fuel to initiate growth. The banks need to lend to underpin the future prospects of the Eurozone.  I am not sure the LTRO approach will actually give the gusto required. To me, a further LTRO is yet another can being kicked down the road.\r\n\r\nDuring 2014 I think that Brussels will run out of cans to kick down the road and the Belgium hospitality industry should be a great investment. The reason for this investment tip is clear, as we will have umpteen Cheese and Wine ECB and Eurozone crisis meetings to finally fix things once and for all. Improvements in the U.S, will highlight how bad the Eurozone economy is in general in comparison and this will fuel the fire to demand action.\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">My EUR/USD prediction: -</span></b>\r\nWith the above happening, I see the EUR/USD trading below 1.3000 by the year-end; initially I see a test of the 1.2500/1.2600 lows.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">GBP/USD:</span></b>\r\n\r\nWithout doubt, the recovery in the UK was for me the joker in the pack towards the end of 2013. Carney (Bank of England, Governor) is doing his best to keep a lid on matters but the UK unlike the Eurozone and the U.S. is NOT suffering from a deflationary set of economic statistics. Whilst some economic data is patchy there is no denial that the UK is on a better economic footing than the Eurozone. It highlights that the one size fits all approach of the Eurozone does NOT work.\r\n\r\nThe chart below shows the 2008 high of the GBP/USD just over an exchange rate of 2.000, just before the BOE Inflation hearing from the then governor Merv “The Swerve” King. It dropped on his statement for 6 straight months to 1.3520.\r\n\r\nWe are now in a channel from 1.5000 to 1.6900.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/GBPUSD-M-04012014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-2460\" alt=\"GBPUSD M 04012014\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/GBPUSD-M-04012014.png\" width=\"660\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">My GBP/USD prediction: -</span></b>\r\nCross–rates I am hoping will be my big trades in 2014 (see much more later). I feel that if the EUR/USD falls, the EUR/GBP will go with it and the GBP/USD which used to drop in sympathy with the EUR, will this year instead rise and I am predicting a re-test of the 61.8% retracement of the big monthly move on the chart above of 1.8250 will take place. The EUR/GBP is crucial to this predicted move. Should this move happen some great unwinds of cross-rates will happen and 2014 could be an excellent trading year with momentum and direction.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">AUD/USD:</span></b>\r\n\r\nThe worst kept secret in the Central Bank Governors world is out...RBA Governor Stevens wants the AUD currency weakened and he sees a AUD/USD exchange rate of about 0.8500 as a rate for the markets to aim for. Without doubt the equity markets will have the ultimate say here but tapering in the U.S. has started and equities should come under pressure, which, should force this pair lower.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/AUDUSD-M-04012014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-2462\" alt=\"AUDUSD M 04012014\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/AUDUSD-M-04012014.png\" width=\"660\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">My AUD/USD prediction: -</span></b>\r\n\r\nI see the 50% retracement on the monthly chart above as the initial target and after that 0.8000 as the second objective in 2014 for this pair. This pair will yo-yo a bit given the fact of its relationship to the equity markets but the RBA is determined to weaken the AUD currency. If you learn anything…never argue or trade against a central bank.\r\nIn addition do not forget Gold, Copper and China. All three have huge impacts on this currency pair. Gold is under pressure because as a hedge against inflation, there is zero inflation to worry about so it is overpriced. It tested critical $1180.00 support over the holidays and bounced but it will re-test again. A break lower will take the AUD/USD with it. <span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">These factors make my 0.8000 target in 2014 look pretty tame.</span>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">NZD/USD:</span></b>\r\n\r\nContrary to the AUD, the RBNZ Governor Wheeler “the dealer” wants to raise rates and send the NZD higher in 2014 to control bubbles in the New Zealand economy. I can feel a cross-rate sermon coming on again. The AUD/NZD will be a focus for me in 2014, given that the RBA and RBNZ are on different paths.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/NZDUSD-M-04012014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-2461\" alt=\"NZDUSD M 04012014\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/NZDUSD-M-04012014.png\" width=\"660\" /></a>\r\n\r\nLooking at the chart above and taking into considering equities, Gold, Copper and China. Common sense tells me that this pair should follow the AUD/USD lower, but I am 100% convinced. The cross-rate effect on the AUD/NZD could keep this pair well supported and inflated, add to this the RBNZ desire to raise rates and this pair could stay in the lofty heights of 0.7800 to 0.8800 for the year.\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">My NZD/USD prediction: -</span></b>\r\n\r\nThis is hard to write as for most of 2013 I have been trying to short this pair almost continually. This year for reasons already stated (RBA determination and the AUD/NZD cross-rate effect) I believe this pair will be the surprise and stay above 0.7800. I see a test of all-time highs being on the cards if the RBA forces the AUD lower and directly intervenes. Do not rule that out.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">USD/JPY:</span></b>\r\n\r\nIt is very easy to say 110.00 and maybe 120.00 is the target for this pair in 2014. Given the reputations and testicles on the chopping block, plus the amount of YEN being thrown at the markets an exchange rate of 120.00 seems achievable in the long term. The BOJ has committed considerably more funds than BEN at his best at the FED ever did.  It would therefore be brave nay foolish to stand in front of the USD/JPY freight train whilst the currency pair weakens to places not seen for years. Having written this, I think in true forex style we need to back test a breakout first before heading higher to the dizzy heights where the air is thin!!\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/USDJPY-M-04012014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-2465\" alt=\"USDJPY M 04012014\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/USDJPY-M-04012014.png\" width=\"660\" /></a>\r\n\r\nThe monthly chart above shows the move from the highs of 124.23-pre financial crisis to the lows of 75.47-post financial crisis.\r\n\r\nA test of the 61.8% retracement seems to be on the cards at 105.59. This will be huge resistance.\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">My USD/JPY prediction: -</span></b>\r\n\r\nBreakouts are nearly almost always re-tested for validity. I believe that the USD/JPY will re-test lower than 100.00, probably 98.00 which was a major psychological number on the way higher and lower with this pair. After a test of 98.00 we head higher (Yen weakness). Equities will play their part taking this pair lower.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">USD/CHF:</span></b>\r\n\r\nBasically, we have been held by 0.8750 for the past two years and we recently re-tested this low to bounce off it. If my Eurozone issues are predicted correctly I see this pair heading higher once again. This pair is one of my long, long, longer term trades for 2014, and I am looking to buy on a dip very soon.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/USDCHF-M-04012014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-2464\" alt=\"USDCHF M 04012014\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/USDCHF-M-04012014.png\" width=\"660\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">My USD/CHF prediction: -</span></b>\r\n\r\nIf the EUR/USD falls as predicted this pair will test parity in 2014. A break through resistance at 0.9415 will give my prediction the weight it needs to push onwards and upwards.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">USD/CAD:</span></b>\r\n\r\nThis is the most stubborn pain in the ass currency pair in the market, for me to follow anyway. I do however see that this pair should stay above parity in 2014. I think that we move higher as equities fall and then as equities stabilize later in 2014 we will pullback a little.\r\nThe monthly chart below shows that we are in an uptrend off the lows of 0.9640, to me I see this pattern continuing as we re-test higher levels.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/USDCAD-M-04012014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-2463\" alt=\"USDCAD M 04012014\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/USDCAD-M-04012014.png\" width=\"660\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">My USD/CAD prediction: -</span></b>\r\n\r\nThere may be a re-test of the bullish trend line on the chart above but I do feel overall that we will be re-testing the 50% and maybe even the 61.8% Fibonacci levels of 1.1200 and 1.1665.\r\n\r\n<b style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">3. MY KEY FOCUS IN 2014:</span></b>\r\n\r\nYou would have noticed in the later blogs of 2013 my trading style and emphasis on what to trade took on a new direction.\r\n\r\nThe main reason for this was due to disconnects in the marketplace. Fundamentals count, but so do inter-market relationships/correlations. There were so many disconnects in 2013, I had to adjust my way of thinking and trading. I see this continuing in 2014 as well as this has been reflected already in the way I view the moves in the USD majors. There is a knock-on effect and this is my key focus this year.\r\n\r\nThe lack of momentum and direction in the USD majors, in particular, since the summer last year, required me to focus on a different style of trading. The push and pull moves for no reason, were frankly just annoying me, and, news events or poor news sound-bytes were causing wild swings in the major pairs that were just crazy and on many occasions based on nothing concrete, or remotely resembling factual data.\r\n\r\nThis prompted the introduction of pull-back strategy trades I called FLASH TRADES, and, a more disciplined approach to longer-term trades that I defined as RADAR TRADES.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>RADAR TRADES: These are pre-meditated limit order trades. I hope that these will be longer-term trades.</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>FLASH TRADES: These are more of an intra-day trade. They may develop into “Swing style” trades but will probably be more short term.</strong><strong> </strong></p>\r\nAt the same time, I started to look more and more at cross-rate pairs and exotic crosses. These were largely successful from September 2013. This focus will continue in 2014. I will still trade the majors, but I think more from a FLASH TRADE perspective. My initial focus in 2014 will be to look at the cross-rates. My primary reason for this is that since 2008 these pairs have largely been directionally lower as equities have risen to all time highs. When equities roll over “The unwinding will begin”. With the commodity currencies it has already started and there are 1,000’s of pips still available. We will be unwinding 5 and 6 years of moves.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Be prepared for many trades in the following pairs in 2014: -</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"> EUR/AUD\r\nGBP/AUD\r\nEUR/NZD\r\nGBP/NZD\r\nEUR/CAD\r\nGBP/CAD</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">Plus the\r\nAUD/NZD\r\nEUR/GBP\r\nAUD/CHF\r\n<span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">NZD/CHF</span></p>\r\nThe moves can be wild in most of these pairs as they are not well-funded but they can be very directional with risk off or risk on conditions and offer good returns. The key is to take smaller positions with wider stops to cope with the volatility. A point to note is that these pairs can be very costly overnight carry trades. To trade these we will have to be clever, at the same time I will be assessing risk prior to entries to ensure minimum risk maximum profitability ratios.\r\n\r\nTrading these pairs is all about a trading discipline\r\n\r\nLook my trading style - it’s simple: -\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>FUNDAMENTALS MATTER TO ME</i></strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>I TRADE TO MAKE MONEY…NOT TO PICK TOPS OR BOTTOMS</i></strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>I TRADE LOW RISK</i></strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>I DO NOT CHASE MARKETS</i></strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>I LIKE THE TRADES TO COME TO ME</i></strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>I AM NOT A GREEDY TRADER</i></strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>I LIKE TO TRADE MOMENTUMS IN THE DIRECTION OF TRENDS</i></strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>I USE FIBONACCI LEVELS TO ENTER &amp; EXIT ON MANY TRADES</i></strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>PLUS...</i></strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>MY TRADING STYLE IS MIXED EVEN WITH THE ABOVE KEY BASICS</i></strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>I USE THE PULLBACK STRATEGY TO ENTER AND I LIKE SWING AND LONGER-TERM TRADES (WHEN POSSIBLE)</i></strong></p>\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">4. MAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:</span></b>\r\n\r\nSUNDAY: N/A\r\n\r\nMONDAY: USD – ISM Non- Manufacturing PMi.\r\nMONDAY: AUD – Trade Balance.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: CAD – Trade Balance\r\nTUESDAY: USD – Trade Balance\r\nTUESDAY: CNY – CPi, GDP and Trade Balance.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – ADP Non- Farm Employment change and FOMC minutes.\r\nWEDNESDAY: AUD – Retail Sales.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: GBP – Interest Rates\r\nTHURSDAY: EUR – Interest Rates and ECB Press Conference.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: CAD – Employment rates/changes\r\nFRIDAY: USD – Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Rates.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">5. THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</span></b>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU</span></b><b>\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">PREMIUM SERVICE  2014 </span></b>\r\n\r\nI am still working with my software developer to have this addition to the WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU ready within the next two weeks. My intention is to launch the PREMIUM SERVICE subscription service as soon as the markets revert back to normal liquidity.\r\n\r\nWe have noticed however that a number people have tried to register already., For anyone who has tried to register their details were deleted by the system under beta testing and even if you believe that you have an existing login or username that is not the case. As soon as I write announcing that the PREMIUM SERVICE is ready, sorry, but you will have to register again.\r\n\r\nFor those new readers below I detail the salient points regarding the premium service: -\r\n\r\nAs soon as the PREMIUM SERVICE is launched THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU in its current format will change. It will remain a weekly blog post although it will be more concise in length.\r\n\r\nMy “RADAR and FLASH TRADES” will now only be available via the Premium Service. In addition, “TRADE IDEAS &amp; SET UPS” that are tweeted will now only be available to Premium Service subscribers by email and in addition they can be viewed inside the secure section of my website.\r\n\r\nBelow as examples of the RADAR and FLASH TRADES excel spreadsheets I show the monthly statements for December 2013. (These were real trades that were tweeted or posted in this blog).\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/RADAR-TRADES-21122013.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-2379\" alt=\"RADAR TRADES 21122013\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/RADAR-TRADES-21122013.png\" width=\"455\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/FLASH-TRADES-21122013.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-2378\" alt=\"FLASH TRADES 21122013\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/FLASH-TRADES-21122013.png\" width=\"411\" height=\"437\" /></a>\r\n\r\nIn 2013, feedback from subscribers to the “Drive-Thru”, or from readers of the blog via Google+, LinkedIn or Twitter have been raising many questions about Forex Trading in general, such as: -\r\n\r\n</p><p align=\"center\"><b> </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Placing Stops</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Strategies on entry and exit</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Working with a Trade Plan</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>What is a Trade Plan?</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Risk Assessment</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>When to fade trades</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>How to cost average effectively</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>How to use Trade Zones effectively - Buy Zones and Sell zones</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Working with Fibonacci levels</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>How to find a good broker to partner with</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Chart analysis</b></p>\r\nInside the secure area of my website, you will be able to reference information on all of the above topics plus much more. The library of information will grow during 2014 and my goal is to provide a comprehensive support area to traders of all experience levels. The PREMIUM SERVICE in its secure area will be a learning and reference area to subscribers.\r\n\r\nI am also looking to offer training and information based “Webinars” to Premium Service subscription members, if I have sufficient participants. These will be fee based to cover costs.\r\n\r\nWhilst upon first look, it may appear that the Premium Service is directed solely at new traders, or those with intermediate skill levels, please note this is not my intention. Trading can be lonely, and sometimes it is good to feel that you are part of a team. With this in mind, I am thinking that a “Chat Room” style area would be of benefit to all traders to share ideas and trade set-ups. Plus, whether a new trader or experienced trader it is always good to have a library of information available close at hand.\r\n\r\nWhat are the costs of membership?\r\n\r\nThere will be 40 weekly blogs / issues per year (I will not write in the Summer and over Christmas periods), with an unlimited amount of follow ups during the week to review and act upon “Radar Trades” and issues emanating from previous blogs. In addition trade ideas for trades already in play would also be part of the service, as I will be trading the posted set-ups.\r\n\r\nI do not want to become a finance administrator on a daily basis so I want to keep the subscription options as few as possible.\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>ANNUAL (40 WEEK) SUBSCRIPTION: $750.00 (this equates to $18.75 per week) </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>20 WEEKS SUBSCRIPTION: $450.00 (this equates to $22.50 per week) </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>10 WEEKS SUBSCRIPTION: $250.00 (this equates to $25.00 per week) </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>(ALL FEES ARE IN USD)</b></p>\r\nShould you have any questions regarding the PREMIUM SERVICE please email me at premiumservice@thepipaccumulator.com\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">9. FINAL THOUGHTS:</span></b>\r\n\r\nIt is a busy week for my first week back in the saddle.\r\n\r\nWe should see liquidity come back to the market this week and currency moves should be more sustainable.\r\n\r\nI will be posting RADAR and FLASH trade set ups via twitter as the week progresses and they will be performance measured via spreadsheets in next week blog.\r\n\r\nUntil we reach full liquidity if you are going to trade keep the positions smaller.\r\n\r\nGood luck,\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nSaturday January 4<sup>th</sup> 2014\r\n\r\nEMAIL / FOLLOW ME AT:\r\n<a href=\"mailto:drivethru@thepipaccumulator.com\">drivethru@thepipaccumulator.com\r\n</a>Twitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n<span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">Google+/scottpickering\r\n</span><span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">StockTwits; thepipaccumulator</span>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','MY TRADE IDEAS AND THOUGHTS LOOKING FORWARD AT 2014','','inherit','open','closed','','2456-revision-v1','','','2014-01-20 15:26:15','2014-01-20 20:26:15','',2456,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/2456-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(3092,16,'2014-01-20 15:24:50','2014-01-20 20:24:50','04.01.2014\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">1. INTRODUCTION:</span></b>\r\n\r\nHappy New Year one and all, I trust that this blog finds everyone in good health and raring to get trading started in 2014, that is if like me you are still a 2014 trading virgin\r\n\r\nThis blog will be shorter than usual and will be a “Scott look at 2014” with my initial trading thoughts for this year. In addition, I will also provide you with an update on the launch of the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\nThe normal blog will return next weekend and will continue until the PREMIUM SERVICE is launched.\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">2.  MY VIEWS ON THE USD MAJORS THIS COMING YEAR 2014:</span></b>\r\n\r\nOver the holidays I have had plenty of time to sit back and strategize on my approach to 2014 and how it will vary from last year.\r\n\r\nThe major change in my recent trading style and strategy was brought about by the way the markets pushed and pulled traders around based on zero long term momentum, trend or direction. Inter-market correlations matter and count. There were huge disconnects in the second half of 2013.\r\n\r\nI see this disconnect continuing, hence my forward thinking into 2014 shows disconnects between the majors. My thoughts are that there will be more extended periods when currencies will act independently this year. Correlations will come and go.\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong>Typical examples of “the disconnect” are the following correlations: -</strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong> USD / Gold</strong>\r\n<strong> AUD / NZD</strong>\r\n<strong> Commodity currencies / equities</strong>\r\n<strong> EUR / GBP</strong>\r\n<strong> CAD / USD</strong>\r\n<strong> JPY / S&amp;P</strong>\r\n<strong> AUD &amp; NZD / Copper</strong>\r\n<strong> EUR / CHF</strong>\r\n<strong> EUR/GBP<span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">/ GBP/CHF</span></strong>\r\n<strong> JPY &amp; CHF / Gold</strong></p>\r\nI know that it may be corny and you have probably read lots of 2014 predictions already, but I still want to do one, which, I will refer back to each quarter during 2014. I have not traded this year so far, I have just been looking at charts reading and listening to various pieces in the media and on the web.\r\n\r\nI will for the purpose of review during this year go through each USD major one by one with thoughts associated to that currency pair.\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">EUR/USD:</span></b>\r\n\r\nMy initial thoughts are that whilst I am a fundamental trader at heart and I believe this to be a good thing, it did impair my trading a little in 2013. Without doubt along with many traders fundamentally the belief was always that the EUR/USD was over-priced and that a correction lower was always on the cards towards to 1.2500 area. Even with a surprise rate cut late in 2013 we never really broke lower than 1.3000 last year.\r\n\r\nThe Eurozone is still starved of economic growth and there are many, many economic and social problems spread throughout the Eurozone.\r\n\r\nMy short list of issues facing the Eurozone is highlighted below: -\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"> <i>AUSTERITY\r\n</i><i>GDP\r\n</i><i style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">UNEMPLOYMENT\r\n</i><i style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">HOUSING\r\n</i><i style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">LOW CPi\r\n</i><i style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">DEFLATION\r\n</i><i style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">BAD DEBT\r\n</i><i style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">SOCIAL UNREST\r\n</i><i style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">SOCIAL SERVICES\r\n</i><i style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">HEALTH CUTBACKS</i></p>\r\nThe monthly EUR/USD chart below shows that despite the Eurozone negative talk (and I have done my fair share) the pair is extremely resilient. There are more green monthly candlestick bars than red ones; in fact, it’s a 66/33 ratio in 2013 green over red. This hardly shows a currency pair under threat for most of the time. The chart also shows that a longer term bearish down sloping channel is still in play. As you can see we are most definitely at the higher reaches of the channel almost breaking it over the recent holidays.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/EURUSD-M-04012014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-2459\" alt=\"EURUSD M 04012014\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/EURUSD-M-04012014.png\" width=\"660\" /></a>\r\n\r\nWith the above in mind, I am expecting that equity markets will pullback and aid USD strength, plus do not forget that “Tapering” has started and this is a major shift in FED policy. These two events will drive the EUR/USD lower,\r\n\r\nAdditionally, with the ECB under Draghi’s leadership and Merkel the puppet mistress at the controls they have yet to properly attack under funded banks, deflation and negative growth in the periphery. So far ECB hot air has kept the markets reasonably happy, but only to a point. Sooner or later a full-on bond-buying scheme like the FED’s QE programme will be required to add liquidity to the Eurozone economies, which should provide the necessary fuel to initiate growth. The banks need to lend to underpin the future prospects of the Eurozone.  I am not sure the LTRO approach will actually give the gusto required. To me, a further LTRO is yet another can being kicked down the road.\r\n\r\nDuring 2014 I think that Brussels will run out of cans to kick down the road and the Belgium hospitality industry should be a great investment. The reason for this investment tip is clear, as we will have umpteen Cheese and Wine ECB and Eurozone crisis meetings to finally fix things once and for all. Improvements in the U.S, will highlight how bad the Eurozone economy is in general in comparison and this will fuel the fire to demand action.\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">My EUR/USD prediction: -</span></b>\r\nWith the above happening, I see the EUR/USD trading below 1.3000 by the year-end; initially I see a test of the 1.2500/1.2600 lows.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">GBP/USD:</span></b>\r\n\r\nWithout doubt, the recovery in the UK was for me the joker in the pack towards the end of 2013. Carney (Bank of England, Governor) is doing his best to keep a lid on matters but the UK unlike the Eurozone and the U.S. is NOT suffering from a deflationary set of economic statistics. Whilst some economic data is patchy there is no denial that the UK is on a better economic footing than the Eurozone. It highlights that the one size fits all approach of the Eurozone does NOT work.\r\n\r\nThe chart below shows the 2008 high of the GBP/USD just over an exchange rate of 2.000, just before the BOE Inflation hearing from the then governor Merv “The Swerve” King. It dropped on his statement for 6 straight months to 1.3520.\r\n\r\nWe are now in a channel from 1.5000 to 1.6900.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/GBPUSD-M-04012014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-2460\" alt=\"GBPUSD M 04012014\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/GBPUSD-M-04012014.png\" width=\"660\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">My GBP/USD prediction: -</span></b>\r\nCross–rates I am hoping will be my big trades in 2014 (see much more later). I feel that if the EUR/USD falls, the EUR/GBP will go with it and the GBP/USD which used to drop in sympathy with the EUR, will this year instead rise and I am predicting a re-test of the 61.8% retracement of the big monthly move on the chart above of 1.8250 will take place. The EUR/GBP is crucial to this predicted move. Should this move happen some great unwinds of cross-rates will happen and 2014 could be an excellent trading year with momentum and direction.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">AUD/USD:</span></b>\r\n\r\nThe worst kept secret in the Central Bank Governors world is out...RBA Governor Stevens wants the AUD currency weakened and he sees a AUD/USD exchange rate of about 0.8500 as a rate for the markets to aim for. Without doubt the equity markets will have the ultimate say here but tapering in the U.S. has started and equities should come under pressure, which, should force this pair lower.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/AUDUSD-M-04012014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-2462\" alt=\"AUDUSD M 04012014\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/AUDUSD-M-04012014.png\" width=\"660\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">My AUD/USD prediction: -</span></b>\r\n\r\nI see the 50% retracement on the monthly chart above as the initial target and after that 0.8000 as the second objective in 2014 for this pair. This pair will yo-yo a bit given the fact of its relationship to the equity markets but the RBA is determined to weaken the AUD currency. If you learn anything…never argue or trade against a central bank.\r\nIn addition do not forget Gold, Copper and China. All three have huge impacts on this currency pair. Gold is under pressure because as a hedge against inflation, there is zero inflation to worry about so it is overpriced. It tested critical $1180.00 support over the holidays and bounced but it will re-test again. A break lower will take the AUD/USD with it. <span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">These factors make my 0.8000 target in 2014 look pretty tame.</span>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">NZD/USD:</span></b>\r\n\r\nContrary to the AUD, the RBNZ Governor Wheeler “the dealer” wants to raise rates and send the NZD higher in 2014 to control bubbles in the New Zealand economy. I can feel a cross-rate sermon coming on again. The AUD/NZD will be a focus for me in 2014, given that the RBA and RBNZ are on different paths.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/NZDUSD-M-04012014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-2461\" alt=\"NZDUSD M 04012014\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/NZDUSD-M-04012014.png\" width=\"660\" /></a>\r\n\r\nLooking at the chart above and taking into considering equities, Gold, Copper and China. Common sense tells me that this pair should follow the AUD/USD lower, but I am 100% convinced. The cross-rate effect on the AUD/NZD could keep this pair well supported and inflated, add to this the RBNZ desire to raise rates and this pair could stay in the lofty heights of 0.7800 to 0.8800 for the year.\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">My NZD/USD prediction: -</span></b>\r\n\r\nThis is hard to write as for most of 2013 I have been trying to short this pair almost continually. This year for reasons already stated (RBA determination and the AUD/NZD cross-rate effect) I believe this pair will be the surprise and stay above 0.7800. I see a test of all-time highs being on the cards if the RBA forces the AUD lower and directly intervenes. Do not rule that out.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">USD/JPY:</span></b>\r\n\r\nIt is very easy to say 110.00 and maybe 120.00 is the target for this pair in 2014. Given the reputations and testicles on the chopping block, plus the amount of YEN being thrown at the markets an exchange rate of 120.00 seems achievable in the long term. The BOJ has committed considerably more funds than BEN at his best at the FED ever did.  It would therefore be brave nay foolish to stand in front of the USD/JPY freight train whilst the currency pair weakens to places not seen for years. Having written this, I think in true forex style we need to back test a breakout first before heading higher to the dizzy heights where the air is thin!!\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/USDJPY-M-04012014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-2465\" alt=\"USDJPY M 04012014\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/USDJPY-M-04012014.png\" width=\"660\" /></a>\r\n\r\nThe monthly chart above shows the move from the highs of 124.23-pre financial crisis to the lows of 75.47-post financial crisis.\r\n\r\nA test of the 61.8% retracement seems to be on the cards at 105.59. This will be huge resistance.\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">My USD/JPY prediction: -</span></b>\r\n\r\nBreakouts are nearly almost always re-tested for validity. I believe that the USD/JPY will re-test lower than 100.00, probably 98.00 which was a major psychological number on the way higher and lower with this pair. After a test of 98.00 we head higher (Yen weakness). Equities will play their part taking this pair lower.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">USD/CHF:</span></b>\r\n\r\nBasically, we have been held by 0.8750 for the past two years and we recently re-tested this low to bounce off it. If my Eurozone issues are predicted correctly I see this pair heading higher once again. This pair is one of my long, long, longer term trades for 2014, and I am looking to buy on a dip very soon.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/USDCHF-M-04012014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-2464\" alt=\"USDCHF M 04012014\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/USDCHF-M-04012014.png\" width=\"660\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">My USD/CHF prediction: -</span></b>\r\n\r\nIf the EUR/USD falls as predicted this pair will test parity in 2014. A break through resistance at 0.9415 will give my prediction the weight it needs to push onwards and upwards.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">USD/CAD:</span></b>\r\n\r\nThis is the most stubborn pain in the ass currency pair in the market, for me to follow anyway. I do however see that this pair should stay above parity in 2014. I think that we move higher as equities fall and then as equities stabilize later in 2014 we will pullback a little.\r\nThe monthly chart below shows that we are in an uptrend off the lows of 0.9640, to me I see this pattern continuing as we re-test higher levels.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/USDCAD-M-04012014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-2463\" alt=\"USDCAD M 04012014\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/USDCAD-M-04012014.png\" width=\"660\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">My USD/CAD prediction: -</span></b>\r\n\r\nThere may be a re-test of the bullish trend line on the chart above but I do feel overall that we will be re-testing the 50% and maybe even the 61.8% Fibonacci levels of 1.1200 and 1.1665.\r\n\r\n<b style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">3. MY KEY FOCUS IN 2014:</span></b>\r\n\r\nYou would have noticed in the later blogs of 2013 my trading style and emphasis on what to trade took on a new direction.\r\n\r\nThe main reason for this was due to disconnects in the marketplace. Fundamentals count, but so do inter-market relationships/correlations. There were so many disconnects in 2013, I had to adjust my way of thinking and trading. I see this continuing in 2014 as well as this has been reflected already in the way I view the moves in the USD majors. There is a knock-on effect and this is my key focus this year.\r\n\r\nThe lack of momentum and direction in the USD majors, in particular, since the summer last year, required me to focus on a different style of trading. The push and pull moves for no reason, were frankly just annoying me, and, news events or poor news sound-bytes were causing wild swings in the major pairs that were just crazy and on many occasions based on nothing concrete, or remotely resembling factual data.\r\n\r\nThis prompted the introduction of pull-back strategy trades I called FLASH TRADES, and, a more disciplined approach to longer-term trades that I defined as RADAR TRADES.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>RADAR TRADES: These are pre-meditated limit order trades. I hope that these will be longer-term trades.</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>FLASH TRADES: These are more of an intra-day trade. They may develop into “Swing style” trades but will probably be more short term.</strong><strong> </strong></p>\r\nAt the same time, I started to look more and more at cross-rate pairs and exotic crosses. These were largely successful from September 2013. This focus will continue in 2014. I will still trade the majors, but I think more from a FLASH TRADE perspective. My initial focus in 2014 will be to look at the cross-rates. My primary reason for this is that since 2008 these pairs have largely been directionally lower as equities have risen to all time highs. When equities roll over “The unwinding will begin”. With the commodity currencies it has already started and there are 1,000’s of pips still available. We will be unwinding 5 and 6 years of moves.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Be prepared for many trades in the following pairs in 2014: -</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"> EUR/AUD\r\nGBP/AUD\r\nEUR/NZD\r\nGBP/NZD\r\nEUR/CAD\r\nGBP/CAD</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">Plus the\r\nAUD/NZD\r\nEUR/GBP\r\nAUD/CHF\r\n<span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">NZD/CHF</span></p>\r\nThe moves can be wild in most of these pairs as they are not well-funded but they can be very directional with risk off or risk on conditions and offer good returns. The key is to take smaller positions with wider stops to cope with the volatility. A point to note is that these pairs can be very costly overnight carry trades. To trade these we will have to be clever, at the same time I will be assessing risk prior to entries to ensure minimum risk maximum profitability ratios.\r\n\r\nTrading these pairs is all about a trading discipline\r\n\r\nLook my trading style - it’s simple: -\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>FUNDAMENTALS MATTER TO ME</i></strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>I TRADE TO MAKE MONEY…NOT TO PICK TOPS OR BOTTOMS</i></strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>I TRADE LOW RISK</i></strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>I DO NOT CHASE MARKETS</i></strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>I LIKE THE TRADES TO COME TO ME</i></strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>I AM NOT A GREEDY TRADER</i></strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>I LIKE TO TRADE MOMENTUMS IN THE DIRECTION OF TRENDS</i></strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>I USE FIBONACCI LEVELS TO ENTER &amp; EXIT ON MANY TRADES</i></strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>PLUS...</i></strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>MY TRADING STYLE IS MIXED EVEN WITH THE ABOVE KEY BASICS</i></strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>I USE THE PULLBACK STRATEGY TO ENTER AND I LIKE SWING AND LONGER-TERM TRADES (WHEN POSSIBLE)</i></strong></p>\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">4. MAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:</span></b>\r\n\r\nSUNDAY: N/A\r\n\r\nMONDAY: USD – ISM Non- Manufacturing PMi.\r\nMONDAY: AUD – Trade Balance.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: CAD – Trade Balance\r\nTUESDAY: USD – Trade Balance\r\nTUESDAY: CNY – CPi, GDP and Trade Balance.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – ADP Non- Farm Employment change and FOMC minutes.\r\nWEDNESDAY: AUD – Retail Sales.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: GBP – Interest Rates\r\nTHURSDAY: EUR – Interest Rates and ECB Press Conference.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: CAD – Employment rates/changes\r\nFRIDAY: USD – Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Rates.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">5. THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</span></b>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU</span></b><b>\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">PREMIUM SERVICE  2014 </span></b>\r\n\r\nI am still working with my software developer to have this addition to the WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU ready within the next two weeks. My intention is to launch the PREMIUM SERVICE subscription service as soon as the markets revert back to normal liquidity.\r\n\r\nWe have noticed however that a number people have tried to register already., For anyone who has tried to register their details were deleted by the system under beta testing and even if you believe that you have an existing login or username that is not the case. As soon as I write announcing that the PREMIUM SERVICE is ready, sorry, but you will have to register again.\r\n\r\nFor those new readers below I detail the salient points regarding the premium service: -\r\n\r\nAs soon as the PREMIUM SERVICE is launched THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU in its current format will change. It will remain a weekly blog post although it will be more concise in length.\r\n\r\nMy “RADAR and FLASH TRADES” will now only be available via the Premium Service. In addition, “TRADE IDEAS &amp; SET UPS” that are tweeted will now only be available to Premium Service subscribers by email and in addition they can be viewed inside the secure section of my website.\r\n\r\nBelow as examples of the RADAR and FLASH TRADES excel spreadsheets I show the monthly statements for December 2013. (These were real trades that were tweeted or posted in this blog).\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/RADAR-TRADES-21122013.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-2379\" alt=\"RADAR TRADES 21122013\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/RADAR-TRADES-21122013.png\" width=\"455\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/FLASH-TRADES-21122013.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-2378\" alt=\"FLASH TRADES 21122013\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/FLASH-TRADES-21122013.png\" width=\"411\" height=\"437\" /></a>\r\n\r\nIn 2013, feedback from subscribers to the “Drive-Thru”, or from readers of the blog via Google+, LinkedIn or Twitter have been raising many questions about Forex Trading in general, such as: -\r\n\r\n</p><p align=\"center\"><b> </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Placing Stops</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Strategies on entry and exit</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Working with a Trade Plan</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>What is a Trade Plan?</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Risk Assessment</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>When to fade trades</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>How to cost average effectively</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>How to use Trade Zones effectively - Buy Zones and Sell zones</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Working with Fibonacci levels</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>How to find a good broker to partner with</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Chart analysis</b></p>\r\nInside the secure area of my website, you will be able to reference information on all of the above topics plus much more. The library of information will grow during 2014 and my goal is to provide a comprehensive support area to traders of all experience levels. The PREMIUM SERVICE in its secure area will be a learning and reference area to subscribers.\r\n\r\nI am also looking to offer training and information based “Webinars” to Premium Service subscription members, if I have sufficient participants. These will be fee based to cover costs.\r\n\r\nWhilst upon first look, it may appear that the Premium Service is directed solely at new traders, or those with intermediate skill levels, please note this is not my intention. Trading can be lonely, and sometimes it is good to feel that you are part of a team. With this in mind, I am thinking that a “Chat Room” style area would be of benefit to all traders to share ideas and trade set-ups. Plus, whether a new trader or experienced trader it is always good to have a library of information available close at hand.\r\n\r\nWhat are the costs of membership?\r\n\r\nThere will be 40 weekly blogs / issues per year (I will not write in the Summer and over Christmas periods), with an unlimited amount of follow ups during the week to review and act upon “Radar Trades” and issues emanating from previous blogs. In addition trade ideas for trades already in play would also be part of the service, as I will be trading the posted set-ups.\r\n\r\nI do not want to become a finance administrator on a daily basis so I want to keep the subscription options as few as possible.\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>ANNUAL (40 WEEK) SUBSCRIPTION: $750.00 (this equates to $18.75 per week) </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>20 WEEKS SUBSCRIPTION: $450.00 (this equates to $22.50 per week) </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>10 WEEKS SUBSCRIPTION: $250.00 (this equates to $25.00 per week) </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>(ALL FEES ARE IN USD)</b></p>\r\nShould you have any questions regarding the PREMIUM SERVICE please email me at premiumservice@thepipaccumulator.com\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">9. FINAL THOUGHTS:</span></b>\r\n\r\nIt is a busy week for my first week back in the saddle.\r\n\r\nWe should see liquidity come back to the market this week and currency moves should be more sustainable.\r\n\r\nI will be posting RADAR and FLASH trade set ups via twitter as the week progresses and they will be performance measured via spreadsheets in next week blog.\r\n\r\nUntil we reach full liquidity if you are going to trade keep the positions smaller.\r\n\r\nGood luck,\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nSaturday January 4<sup>th</sup> 2014\r\n\r\nEMAIL / FOLLOW ME AT:\r\n<a href=\"mailto:drivethru@thepipaccumulator.com\">drivethru@thepipaccumulator.com\r\n</a>Twitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n<span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">Google+/scottpickering\r\n</span><span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">StockTwits; thepipaccumulator</span>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','MY TRADE IDEAS AND THOUGHTS LOOKING FORWARD AT 2014','','inherit','open','closed','','2456-revision-v1','','','2014-01-20 15:24:50','2014-01-20 20:24:50','',2456,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/2456-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(2644,16,'2014-01-09 10:32:03','2014-01-09 15:32:03','<section class=\"members\">\r\n<a title=\"Trading Basics\" href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/trading-basics/\">Trading Basics</a><a title=\"Trading Strategies\" href=\"./tradingstrategies/\">Trading Strategies</a><a title=\"Candlesticks\" href=\"./premium-candlesticks/\">Candlesticks</a><a title=\"Chart Patterns\" href=\"./chart-patterns/\">Chart Patterns</a>\r\n</section>','Training Support','','inherit','open','closed','','2267-revision-v1','','','2014-01-09 10:32:03','2014-01-09 15:32:03','',2267,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/2267-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(2457,16,'2015-03-23 10:47:41','2015-03-23 15:47:41','<h1>THE PREMIUM SERVICE</h1>\n<section class=\"members\">\n\n<div style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a title=\"Premium Blog Posts\" href=\"../member_posts/\">Premium Service Blog Posts</a><a title=\"Webinars\" href=\"./dates-upcoming-webinars/\">Dates of upcoming webinars</a><a title=\"Blog Dates\" href=\"./blog-dates/\">Blog Dates</a></div>\n</section>','Welcome','','inherit','open','closed','','2154-autosave-v1','','','2015-03-23 10:47:41','2015-03-23 15:47:41','',2154,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/2154-autosave-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(4202,16,'2014-08-12 10:47:09','2014-08-12 15:47:09','<h1>THE PREMIUM SERVICE</h1>\r\n<section class=\"members\">\r\n<a title=\"Premium Blog Posts\" href=\"../member_posts/\">Premium Blog Posts</a><a title=\"Webinars\" href=\"./dates-upcoming-webinars/\">Dates of upcoming webinars</a><a title=\"Blog Dates\" href=\"./blog-dates/\">Blog Dates</a>\r\n\r\n</section>','Welcome','','inherit','open','closed','','2154-revision-v1','','','2014-08-12 10:47:09','2014-08-12 15:47:09','',2154,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/2154-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(2796,16,'2016-12-05 10:58:34','2016-12-05 15:58:34','<section class=\"one-sixth first\">\n<h4>Radar Trades Archives:</h4>\n</section>\n<section class=\"five-sixths\">\n<div class=\"one-half first\">\n<h2>This Month\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/RADAR-NOV16.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-8743\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/RADAR-NOV16-782x1024.png\" alt=\"radar-nov16\" width=\"782\" height=\"1024\" /></a></h2>\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/RADAR1-15062014.png\">\n</a>\n\n</div>\n<div class=\"one-half\">\n<h2>Year to date\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/RADAR-NOVYTD16.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-8744\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/RADAR-NOVYTD16.png\" alt=\"radar-novytd16\" width=\"850\" height=\"934\" /></a></h2>\n\n<h2>PREVIOUS YEARS\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/radar-trades/radar-2015-comp/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-6985\"><img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-6985\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/RADAR-2015-COMP.png\" alt=\"RADAR 2015 COMP\" width=\"511\" height=\"535\" /></a></h2>\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/RADAR-31122014-YTD.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-4953\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/RADAR-31122014-YTD.png\" alt=\"RADAR 31122014 YTD\" width=\"462\" height=\"494\" /></a>\n\n</div>\n</section>','Radar Trades','','inherit','open','closed','','2524-autosave-v1','','','2016-12-05 10:58:34','2016-12-05 15:58:34','',2524,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/2524-autosave-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(2524,16,'2014-01-07 15:18:41','2014-01-07 20:18:41','<section class=\"one-sixth first\">\r\n<h4>Radar Trades Archives:</h4>\r\n</section><section class=\"five-sixths\">\r\n<div class=\"one-half first\">\r\n<h2>This Month\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/RADAR-20022017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-9131\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/RADAR-20022017-740x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"740\" height=\"1024\" /></a></h2>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"one-half\">\r\n<h2>Year to date\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/RADAR-JANYTD-2017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-9044\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/RADAR-JANYTD-2017.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"832\" height=\"932\" /></a></h2>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<h2>PREVIOUS YEARS</h2>\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-8807\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/RADAR-2016-COMPLETE.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"856\" height=\"938\" />\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/radar-trades/radar-2015-comp/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-6985\"><img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-6985\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/RADAR-2015-COMP.png\" alt=\"RADAR 2015 COMP\" width=\"511\" height=\"535\" /></a>\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/RADAR-2014-COMPLETE.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-8858\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/RADAR-2014-COMPLETE.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"489\" height=\"487\" /></a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</section>','Radar Trades','','publish','open','closed','','radar-trades','','','2017-02-20 06:38:34','2017-02-20 11:38:34','',0,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?page_id=2524',0,'page','',0),(8909,1,'2017-01-07 07:49:07','2017-01-07 12:49:07','&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong> INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nWelcome 2017.\r\n\r\nWherever you are located, whether you celebrate the Christmas / New Year Holidays or not, I hope you had an enjoyable break.\r\n\r\nI re-opened my screens last week, traded a little, lost more money than I made, getting caught up in thin volume trading and got taken in and out of trades whilst asleep, oh what joy, happy days, it feels great to be back!\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nHopefully from next Monday onwards the markets will have a little more volume attached to them and it will business as usual. I ignored Non-Farm Payrolls and the like last week, I only managed existing trades. I am mentally and psychologically ready for next Monday 9<sup>th</sup> January.\r\n\r\nWhat’s new to mention, that will appear different this year in comparison to last year?\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>The “DRIVE THRU” blog format / structure is being amended over the next few weeks. There are some subtle changes already in place.\r\nOne of the benefits of your own blog is the fact you can write all sorts of stuff, you can choose what or who you write about and how you write about them or it.\r\nThis year I am launching “SCOTT’S SOAPBOX” (Section 5 on most blog formats). I will “have a go” in my own way at a multitude of subjects and FX personalities as the year progresses. There is NO shortage of topics or numpties to write about. I have a plethora of subjects ready to rock.</li>\r\n 	<li>Starting next Monday 9<sup>th</sup> January 2017 at 30PM EST – my long-awaited debut on PERISCOPE starts. The 30 minute or so broadcasts are through my twitter address @pipaccumulator\r\nI can be flexible on this time but this was the most popular, and I like it. From my perspective, it\'s a great time as it will be after the close of day one of a new week. We can look at price movements based upon the previous week’s weekly candle plus the last two daily candles.\r\nIn 2016 movements on daily candles were the foundation of the PREMIUM SERVICE success.\r\nAll I ask is cut me some slack for the first two or three weeks whilst I get comfortable with the process….!!</li>\r\n 	<li>During the holiday break, I have been asked by a few non-PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers to re-introduce the weekly training feature that was in my blog each week in 2013-2015.\r\nLast year I had thought about bringing this back, however, I have decided that this is a PREMIUM SERVICE (PLATINUM) subscriber benefit This will be available on a one-on-one basis through the PLATINUM subscriber review meeting.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li>PREMIUM SERVICE subscription prices have been updated for 2017.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nLet’s hope that we have a directional, easy to read liquid market with all currencies obeying trend lines, chart pattern measured moves, and it respects Fibonacci levels. Boring as that might be we would all make plenty of $$$ should that happen.\r\n\r\nMy thoughts are that the forex market will be a dysfunctional mess of Central Bank governors clutching at straws in attempts to explain the unexplainable. In addition, we will have the desk sucking, pen pushing, jotter blotters, who are mainly unelected officials (numpties) in places such as Brussels, forcing through their own interpretations of policies creating chaos and disorder in all markets. Not to forget cartels like OPEC who do not even control 100% of their market trying to influence price by defying the pure economics of supply and demand.\r\n\r\nIn summary; I see 2017 a bit of a 2016 replay.\r\n\r\nLet’s get at it….\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE – LOOKING FORWARD:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong><u>NOTE:</u></strong> This year, 2017, I am not going to look backwards in this section only forwards. News items / points of interest from the prior week will be covered in the introduction.\r\n\r\n<u>ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/ECON-DATA-08012017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-8873\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/ECON-DATA-08012017-935x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"935\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>MY THOUGHTS ON THE WEEK AHEAD:</u>\r\n\r\nIt looks like a pretty light week on economic data this coming week.\r\n\r\nGiven the price action at the end of last week and the “TRUMP EFFECT” maybe being a little overdone to say the least, we could be in for a choppy period through to the “DONALD’S” inauguration.\r\n\r\nI think that the fact we have seen reactions from both the Chinese and Mexican Central Banks to the  “TWEET EFFECT” from the U.S. President Elect, we will have more of the same on the calendar moving forward. I think we must expect the unexpected, and, frankly given the fact that TWITTER appears to be preferred method of communication at the moment on U.S. policy moves and ideas, we should be on our toes moving through Q1 2017 or at least until things settle down to the TRUMP way of being President. On the positive side, we will know in 140 characters what he’s thinking about rather than having to wade through pages of padding. Dare I say it, the FED could adopt this approach, and, whilst I am at it so could many of the other Central Banks, especially those awfully nice chaps from the RNBZ.\r\n\r\nTherefore, looking ahead, I think that geopolitical news and the stock market will drive the currencies over the next week…. yikes!!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u>USD MAJORS – “IMMEDIATE” SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE with TREND:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/T-CHART-08012017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-8872\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/T-CHART-08012017-1024x794.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"794\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMy trade charts for the USD majors are below. My thoughts, views and commentary is written on the charts.\r\n\r\nYou will find my charts, hopefully easy to follow. I only use Fibonacci levels, trend lines, confluence points and sometimes chart patterns to identify my high probability trades. If you have any difficulty understanding the points that I am trying to make, please do not hesitate to contract me.\r\n\r\nEUR/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/EURUSD-D-08012017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-8879\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/EURUSD-D-08012017-1024x475.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"475\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/GBPUSD-D-08012017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-8880\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/GBPUSD-D-08012017-1024x475.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"475\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/AUDUSD-D-08012017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-8878\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/AUDUSD-D-08012017-1024x475.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"475\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/NZDUSD-D-08012017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-8881\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/NZDUSD-D-08012017-1024x475.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"475\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/USDCAD-D-08012017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-8882\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/USDCAD-D-08012017-1024x475.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"475\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/USDCHF-240M-08012017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-8883\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/USDCHF-240M-08012017-1024x475.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"475\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/USDJPY-D-08012017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-8884\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/USDJPY-D-08012017-1024x475.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"475\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong>THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber, fee based trade set-up option for Forex traders regardless of experience or background. I provide traders suggested trades, and some market commentary related to open trades or factors within the overall market that have my interest.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nAdditional information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong>SCOTT’S SOAPBOX:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIf you recall, in my final “DRIVE THRU” of 2016, I provided a list of TRADING PREDICTIONS for 2017. I basically named several geopolitical events that I feel will weigh on the markets this year. Therefore, for the first few weeks of 2017, I want to look at these events in a little more detail.\r\n\r\nAs you will be aware, so much has been said already on the subjects that I have highlighted, I can only add points and views that are my own, based upon how I see things and how I am going to view trading around these events.<strong>\r\n</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>BREXIT – A LOT OF HOT AIR AND AS OF </strong><strong>“RIGHT NOW” … STILL NOTHING HAS HAPPENED</strong></p>\r\nAs we all know Forex is a future pricing mechanism. Since late June last year after the BREXIT referendum took place, we have all sat back and waited for the mass job losses, economic disaster, financial markets in chaos and general doom and gloom to have run a riot in the UK. It just has not happened. All the fear mongering from David Cameron (Prime Minister at the time) and George Osborne (Chancellor of the Exchequer at the time) was just that…. fear mongering based on zero facts. In fact, if the truth be told those who supported and campaigned for the BREXIT have been closer to the truth than they probably thought during the fierce campaigning that took place in the run up to the June vote.\r\n\r\nThe vote to leave the EU was a huge one and so far, bugger all has happened apart from Messrs. Cameron and Osborne resigning and Theresa May being voted in by the Tory government as the new Prime Minister. Article 50 from the Lisbon treaty has still to be triggered. Prime Minister May has signaled that this will done prior to the end of march 2017.\r\n\r\nAfter the vote came in there was huge uncertainty, the cable dropped like a lead balloon and the BOE under the guidance of the part-time JCB driver on forward guidance aka BOE governor Mark Carney took immediate steps to protect the cable by reducing interest rates to 0.25% and provided additional sterling support through further Quantitative Easing (QE) by an additional £70 billion ensuring competitiveness in business and continued low interest rates for consumers amongst other stabling factors.\r\n\r\nCan you remember his Presidential style walk along a c.300-meter corridor to arrive at his lectern to deliver his rate cutting announcement? That walk was so damn long his mother had given him a packed lunch to eat half way and when he arrived at the lectern he needed to move his watch an hour forward… talk about over dramatic, Holy Mother of God.\r\n\r\nSo, let me look at a few key areas the BRITS were told would feck up their lives if they voted to BREXIT and where are we right now:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>THE ECONOMY:Huge negative impact and consumer confidence would be crapping the bed. The economy continues to grow. In the quarter following the BREXIT vote by 0.6%.\r\nRetail sales grew 5.9% year over year in November 2016. Inflation has risen to 1.2% in November up from 0.5% in June 2016.\r\nCPi is at 1.2% the highest since October 2014.\r\nHouse price inflation has continued to ease following the BREXIT. This is most apparent in the London area where the impact of BREXIT will be felt the most.\r\nConstruction is bullish despite the rise in raw material prices that are imported.\r\nThe trade gap widened then narrowed in October as exports rose considerably helped by a weaker cable.\r\nThe job front it is more muddled. Unemployment fell from June to October but has since cooled a little as the Financial Services sector uncertainty starts to weigh a little.</li>\r\n 	<li>THE CABLE (CURRENCY):As expected with uncertainty and fueled by the BOE the GBP/USD exchange rate fell from 1.4700 to sub 1.2100 in the months that followed the BREXIT vote. Right now, I believe that cable is in a wide trading range of 1.2100 to 1.2800, see the chart below.\r\nThis move in currency, whilst it has helped exporters, has on the other side made foreign trips abroad for UK tourists more expensive and at the same time import prices for goods have also increased. Obviously, tourist numbers into the UK have increased significantly with a weaker cable.</li>\r\n 	<li>NEGOTIATIONS TO LEAVE THE EU:Nothing formal yet. Basically, Prime Minister May was advised by EU leaders that the UK would NOT have it easy leaving the EU and it would NOT be allowed to cherry pick EU benefits that it would like to retain given its proximity to mainland Europe. In fact, EU leaders gave Prime Minister May what amounted to a European “Two finger” salute by saying feck off and until you trigger article 50 we are not talking to you.\r\nThe whole situation around article 50 is cloudy. David Davis who is Secretary of State for leaving the EU, hasn\'t even confirmed that he will lead the negotiating team. So, mismanaged is the BREXIT itself the highest-ranking UK official in Brussels Sir Ivan Rogers resigned only last week claiming it’s all a muddle!\r\nThe EU has announced that former French Foreign Minister Michel Barnier will head up to lead the negotiations on behalf of the European Commission. No favours here, technically the BRITS and FRENCH are still at war. There will be no “Entente Cordiale”.\r\nSo it’s all up to Prime Minister May to trigger article 50.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThe bottom line; nothing has happened yet.\r\n\r\nWhen the BREXIT vote came through, I must admit my initial thoughts were that the UK would see this process as time consuming, uncertain, pro-longed and expensive. I thought that the government would do what has previously happened in IRELAND and THE NETHERLANDS…have another vote!!\r\n\r\nI had convinced myself that after a few weeks the calls for a re vote because the initial vote was so close would prevail. I have since changed my thoughts.\r\n\r\nThe alleged two years to exit is in my opinion a bit of a dream. Greenland population c.56,000 people left the EU it took them 2 years to exit. With a population of 65 million the UK, is never going to exit in two years given how inter-twined it currently is with the EU. Greenland had a bit of a partnership and that took two years, the BRITS have a far more complex situation.\r\n\r\nThe EU must remain strong and ensure that no special deals are done otherwise there will be a CONTAGION EFFECT as other countries line up to do likewise. The populist vote as seen by BREXIT and then TRUMP is in the ascendancy. There are elections in France, The Netherlands and Germany this year and in all three cases the existing leadership is under a serious threat.\r\n\r\nIn fact, I would go so far as to say that the EU leaders have done nothing at all to stem the tide of the growth in the populist parties back in their own countries, if anything the fact they (as a group) failed to unite after the BREXIT has only fueled the populist parties.\r\n\r\nI have written many times over the past 5/6 years about the fact that main stream politicians are practically useless in using political courage to knock back the populist right. I firmly believe that this is having more than just a minimal effect on EU stability. It is being seen / viewed by voters as mainstream politicians being out of touch.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMOVING FORWARD and TRADING:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/GBPUSD-FOR-BLOG-SECT5-08012017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-8877\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/GBPUSD-FOR-BLOG-SECT5-08012017-1024x475.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"475\" /></a>\r\n\r\nThe BRITS must trigger article 50 before the end of March 2017, failure to do so will have the cable and the single currency doing a merry dance, with the EUR/GBP not knowing whether it’s coming or going.\r\n\r\nWith elections on the horizon the EU will be under its own pressures should a far-right party establish a foothold. It just requires one country to vote out mainstream politics and then we have a domino effect, then a potential CONTAGION.\r\n\r\nThis year I expect the EUR to be under pressure, and it will not take much to see it slip through parity and target lower levels such as 0.9500. We are dangerously close resting around the 1.0500-1.0700 levels, a couple of days with moves lower and if sub 1.0300 is taken a test of parity is on the cards.\r\n\r\nThe cable is still in a bubble despite some sideways moves of late. We are however just range trading and frankly a difficult BREXIT negotiation, which I am certain it will be, will result in a move lower. This talk of SOFT BREXIT / HARD BREXIT, is in my opinion a load of bollocks. It will be tough for the reasons I have already outlined, so to me it’s always going to be a HARD BREXIT…. nothing less. Price wise with the GBP/USD a re-test of just below 1.2100 is there for the taking and frankly 1.1500 maybe even less, looks more than achievable when you think of what needs to be done and the time that this is going to take.\r\n\r\nThe GBP crosses all look vulnerable except for the EUR/GBP for the reasons outlined above regarding the single currency. All the previous lows with the GBP/AUD, GBP/CAD, GBP/CHF, GBP/JPY and GBP/NZD are there, in my opinion for the taking.\r\n\r\nWhen you think so much has been said, so much has been suggested, so many analysts have voiced opinions and so much has been rumoured by so many people and institutions yet to date, nothing serious has happened apart from the vote itself some 7 months ago!!\r\n\r\nI can guarantee you that I will be revisiting this subject more than a dozen times this year.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><strong>CLOSING THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nTake care, have a great trading week.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #226 FREE NEWSLETTER\r\nDATE: 8<sup>th</sup> January 2017.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','BREXIT – A LOT OF HOT AIR AND AS OF “RIGHT NOW” … STILL NOTHING HAS HAPPENED','','inherit','closed','closed','','8908-revision-v1','','','2017-01-07 07:49:07','2017-01-07 12:49:07','',8908,'http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/8908-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(2528,16,'2014-01-07 15:21:09','2014-01-07 20:21:09',' ','','','publish','open','closed','','2528','','','2017-01-09 11:02:06','2017-01-09 16:02:06','',0,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?p=2528',8,'nav_menu_item','',0),(2623,16,'2014-01-08 13:35:25','2014-01-08 18:35:25','<section class=\"members\">\r\n<a title=\"Trading Basics\" href=\"./trading-basics/\">Trading Basics</a><a title=\"Trading Strategies\" href=\"./tradingstrategies/\">Trading Strategies</a><a title=\"Candlesticks\" href=\"./candlesticks/\">Candlesticks</a><a title=\"Chart Patterns\" href=\"./chart-patterns/\">Chart Patterns</a>\r\n</section>','Training Support','','inherit','open','closed','','2267-revision-v1','','','2014-01-08 13:35:25','2014-01-08 18:35:25','',2267,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/2267-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(2529,16,'2014-01-07 15:22:40','2014-01-07 20:22:40','<section class=\"members\">\r\n<a title=\"Flash Trades\" href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/tradingbasics/\">Trading Basics</a><a title=\"Flash Trades\" href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/chartpatterns/\">Chart Patterns</a><a title=\"Flash Trades\" href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/candlesticks/\">Candlesticks</a><a title=\"Flash Trades\" href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/tradingstrategies/\">Trading Strategies</a>\r\n</section>','Training Support','','inherit','open','closed','','2267-revision-v1','','','2014-01-07 15:22:40','2014-01-07 20:22:40','',2267,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/2267-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(2530,16,'2014-01-07 15:25:45','2014-01-07 20:25:45','<section class=\"members\">\r\n<a title=\"Flash Trades\" href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/tradingbasics/\">Trading Basics</a><a title=\"Flash Trades\" href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/tradingstrategies/\">Trading Strategies</a><a title=\"Candlesticks\" href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/candlesticks/\">Candlesticks</a><a title=\"Chart Patterns\" href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/chart-patterns/\">Chart Patterns</a>\r\n</section>','Training Support','','inherit','open','closed','','2267-revision-v1','','','2014-01-07 15:25:45','2014-01-07 20:25:45','',2267,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/2267-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(2531,16,'2014-01-07 15:26:23','2014-01-07 20:26:23','<section class=\"members\">\r\n<a title=\"Trading Basics\" href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/tradingbasics/\">Trading Basics</a><a title=\"Trading Strategies\" href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/tradingstrategies/\">Trading Strategies</a><a title=\"Candlesticks\" href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/candlesticks/\">Candlesticks</a><a title=\"Chart Patterns\" href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/chart-patterns/\">Chart Patterns</a>\r\n</section>','Training Support','','inherit','open','closed','','2267-revision-v1','','','2014-01-07 15:26:23','2014-01-07 20:26:23','',2267,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/2267-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(2533,16,'2014-01-07 15:28:07','2014-01-07 20:28:07','<section class=\"members\">\r\n<a title=\"Trading Basics\" href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/tradingbasics/\">Trading Basics</a><a title=\"Trading Strategies\" href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/tradingstrategies/\">Trading Strategies</a><a title=\"Candlesticks\" href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/candlesticks/\">Candlesticks</a><a title=\"Chart Patterns\" href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/chart-patterns/\">Chart Patterns</a>\r\n</section>','Traiding Support','','inherit','open','closed','','2267-revision-v1','','','2014-01-07 15:28:07','2014-01-07 20:28:07','',2267,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/2267-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),