<strong> </strong>
<ol>
 	<li><strong> INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>
</ol>
I have often said to traders on line with SKYPE, FaceTime or at a LIVE event one should not consume alcohol when trading as it does impair ones decision making process and effectiveness of judgment.

Having said that above…Jesus, Mary and Joseph aren’t the recent moves in the Forex market enough to send “a sober as a judge” trader to the nearest bottle?

These recent moves are crazy and it seems to me that CHOP FEST trading is here to stay for the foreseeable future. I tweeted to subscribers during the week that it appeared to me that following the BOJ monetary policy announcement that the FX markets would be manipulated by the BOJ related moves through the JPY pairs and OIL. Without doubt, for the run up following the BOJ to the end of last week JPY moves pushed and pulled the DXY and OIL continued to push and pull equities.

I found myself being a “voyeur trader” for many hours last week. My PLAN was to observe and pick off what I believed to be range extreme trades for the longer-term. Basically, that is what I did.

For my subscribers I introduced a series of what I have called “G” POSITION TRADES (I was originally looking at the G20 members). These were originally a series of trades that I looked at in January 2016. They are based upon many future bank Forex predictions for 2016 in line with my own thoughts. Earlier this year, DIVERGENCE just did not progress the way I thought that it would have, so I had kept my excel sheets in the background. With many pairs at range extremes, I felt this would be a good time to launch these trades (7 in total) based off LIMIT ORDER entries. Three are already LIVE and of the remaining four pairs, two almost went LIVE last Friday.

If I have five out of seven trading it will be an interesting bunch of longer-term trades to follow through 2016. At the end of this year, I will know whether my predictions have been good and the major banks performances will also be measurable. They are all low risk, small position sized trades.

From a trading viewpoint, I think last week from a performance perspective, I have been what can be best described as “running to stand still”.

Overall for the month of April, I am delighted and very happy.

Moving forward…

This month’s PREMIUM SERVICE DRAW WINNER of a free 4-week connection to PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) is: -

craigxxxxxxxx@gmail.com

Just to remind you; you could be the next winner of a free PREMIUM SERVICE subscription; if you subscribe to receive this free blog via my website <a href="http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>

You are automatically entered into a free monthly draw, once you’ve subscribed. Each month during 2016 one lucky blog subscriber will receive a free subscription to the PREMIUM SERVICE.

Finally in this section, I want to mention I am going on tour in a few weeks time.

I am going off on the big bird from Montreal to the UK and IRELAND as mentioned last week to present myself and what the PREMIUM SERVICE can do for you regardless of what stage / level of trader you are. More about this as the dates come closer but below is an excel sheet with the tour schedule.

Spaces are limited so to register for an event, please go to my landing page on <a href="http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> and click on LIVE EVENTS. The drop down menu there has all the information that you will require. I would place it here but I would end up getting thousand’s of SPAM emails, which I want to avoid.

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/TOUR-DATES-2016.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-7522" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/TOUR-DATES-2016.png" alt="TOUR DATES 2016" width="624" height="397" /></a>

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<strong> </strong>
<ol start="2">
 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>
</ol>
<u>WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</u>

The PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber, fee based trade set-up option for Forex traders regardless of experience or background. I provide traders suggested trades, and some market commentary related to open trades or factors within the overall market that have my interest.

Full details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and the various trade styles plus how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href="http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.

Additional information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE you will require a PayPal account.

<u> </u>

<u>PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION COSTS:</u>

<u>PLEASE NOTE:</u>

Slightly delayed by a week but, over the next few days, as well as 2016 subscription prices being revised, I will also be switching to CAD$ for payment rather then USD$, which makes more sense given that I live in Canada.

If you are thinking of subscribing and want to beat a price rise… do it very soon. By next weekend, I expect my new gateway to be on the website and 100% operational.

Moving on…

Details of features and benefits a PREMIUM SERVICE subscription can be found on my website landing page at <a href="http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the dropdown tab at the top of the page entitled PREMIUM SERVICE.

I will be making changes within the next 30 days, to subscription options and costs. Details will appear here and on my website once the changes are ready to launch.
<p style="text-align: center;">The current subscription costs are as follows: -</p>
<p style="text-align: center;">PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD):</p>
<p style="text-align: center;">USD$295.00 - 10 weeks (3 months)
USD$495.00 - 20 weeks (6 months)
USD$795.00 - 40 weeks (12 months)</p>
<p style="text-align: center;">I work for 40 weeks or so a year, the annual subscription is based on 40 published blogs
of the WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU. For the remaining 12 weeks of the year, I am usually around tweeting and managing existing LIVE trades.</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><u> </u></p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><u>PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE THIS MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:</u></p>
<p style="text-align: center;">NET PIPS THIS MONTH SO FAR:            +2,236
NET PIPS THIS YEAR SO FAR:                +3,814</p>
<p style="text-align: center;">NET PIPS 2015:       +10,686
NET PIPS 2014:       +11,209</p>
(I trade basically for 10 months a year. I do not trade from mid July through early September or mid December through early January).

If you want more data or detail about the performance and the tabs on my website landing page do not answer your questions, contact me directly and I will supply the trading data you require. There are NO secrets. There are many, many spreadsheets detailing performance trade by trade and by trade and by trading style, way too many to place in this blog. If you are interested in the PREMIUM SERVICE and want more information, all you have to do is ask.

<strong> </strong>
<ol start="3">
 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>
</ol>
<strong>LAST WEEK’S NEWS – MY THOUGHTS:</strong>

Last week was a tale of three central bank announcements.

FOMC:

Personally, I thought that the FED was not as DOVISH as they have been in the past. The market reaction was a little muted as far as was concerned, although, I am of the opinion that with BREXIT or not, the June rate increase is still on the table.

The statement played down the global economic factors that had pre-occupied the thoughts of many analysts. The FED however, is still cautious moving forward, having said that removing the preventative language does free up a rate hike opportunity window at the June meeting.

RBNZ:

Just bloody typical; Wheeler maintains current rate levels and then attempts weak jawboning in the statement to try and place a cap <strong>of </strong>the NZD appreciation. The result from the markets was a raised index finger to the RBNZ and the NZD/USD ploughed higher…. In doing so screwed up my longer-term NZD related trade set-ups… bugger.

Sentiment is still in favour of further rate cuts in the future, I read at least one more maybe two. Lets see.

BOJ:

Holy crap; ahead of this statement the market was expecting the BOJ to possibly expand negative interest rates to bank loans and maybe even extend the QE (Quantitative Easing) program. The BOJ did nada.

The Nikkei dropped and closed the day down 3.7% and USD/JPY dropped 300 pips in 3 minutes. Unfortunately, I was asleep for it.

It does appear that the BOJ is NOT considering increasing stimulus at all in the near future. Like every other central bank, they lowered their growth and inflation targets once again and extended the time line to meet these lower objectives.

Just to keep the markets on their feet and create as much confusion and uncertainty as possible, Kuroda warned about weakness in consumer spending, output and exports and then stated a “whatever” if needed. Which to my mind means, they could increase stimulus later on this year… go figure, its as clear as fecking mud.

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<strong> </strong>

<strong>WHAT’S BIG ON MY MIND:</strong>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>THE YEN EFFECT IS IN PLAY?</strong></p>
Trading the Forex market is always a fascinating hobby or business, whichever describes your own situation the best. Over the past five days we had three central banks report in, the FED, the RBNZ and the BOJ. As we all know, central bank monetary policy decisions are the biggest drivers in the Forex market.

When I first started trading myself, I remember one of the key phrases I latched onto was “never fight the FED”. This was basically a warning that over the longer-term perspective I should not be trading anti the central bank policy. For over nine years I have adhered to this, basically due to basic survival instincts, as the central banks around the world have much more money than me and if they wanted to, the buggers can also print more, my photocopies of bank notes are not welcome or accepted anywhere, which is all rather unfortunate if only they were what fun I would have.

This year its all been rather upside down with most central banks. As the “currency wars” intensified, we then had a G20 meeting when by all accounts words behind closed doors obviously took place and the intensity of trying to be the central bank that can weaken its currency the most seems to have come to a halt, well if not a halt it has calmed down a little.

That last paragraph was a load of crap…

Currency wars are STILL HERE. The only difference is that the markets are giving the previously worshipped “Little tin God’s” aka central bank governors and presidents two fingers with regards to their monetary policy initiatives. I believe this to be true with one exception; Janet Yellen at the FED. She still packs a punch and can provide the children on Wall Street from just jawboning alone market moves that can effectively mimic a 0.25% rate decrease or rate increase.

However, that is all well and good, but the position with the BOJ is very much affecting what is happening and about to happen in the U.S.

First of all, God love BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda. It seems whatever he says or does the markets ignore him. Why is this the case?

In my opinion a lot of this is due to previous BOJ regimes. One thing that is important to markets is credibility. In the past the BOJ has huffed and puffed and never actually followed through.

I know it has the biggest QE program ever. However, sometimes this is just not enough. Credibility in all aspects of life counts for a lot.

The BOJ has QQE, which is a fancy TLA (three letter abbreviation) for Quantitative and Qualitative Easing with a negative interest rate. The BOJ QE program received a fill overhaul in January this year.

Moving back to credibility, when the negative interest rate was introduced it was done so as a token 0.10% with the view that it would be increased over time. I guess from January to April the markets felt that enough time had elapsed from the introduction and that they wanted to see how far would the BOJ venture deeper into negative rates like the ECB, Riksbank and Denmark’s Nationalbank in addition to the innovators of the scheme the SNB. The markets got their answer… no movement.

The BOJ is still buying assets to the amount of 80 trillion yen (USD$730 billion) per annum.

Dealing with the fallout. The USD/JPY fell over 300 pips in 3 minutes and all other JPY crosses recorded falls in a similar fashion. The problem of such a dramatic move ignoring why, just dealing with the facts, is that we now have a YEN EFFECT IN PLAY.

As the JPY strengthens across the board the USD index (DXY) is pressured lower resulting in widespread USD weakness.

This makes trading very difficult for the following reasons: -
<ol>
 	<li>The USD/JPY having had such a large move should either consolidate or pullback. It is doing neither it remains under pressure. The selling pressure is evident on the pair. Most the time it trades really heavily and even bounce attempt creates a CHOP FEST.Thus, the USD moves are also CHOPPY as a result with other pairs.</li>
 	<li>Oil is priced in USD and whilst we are seeing Oil move higher in price, like many commodities and currency pairs we are at range extremes. This is creating false breakouts and breakdowns and more CHOP. As the JPY strengthens the USD weakens and OIL is affected. It is always dangerous to chase in markets but in these conditions its just stupid to think you know better.</li>
 	<li>The JPY cross-rates are at times mimicking the USD/JPY directional moves. These moves are creating swings that have little to zero follow through. The end game is that the effects of the cross-rate moves are skewing the primary currency correlation to other markets at times, e.g. GOLD, OIL and COPPER. The result of this is that traders can be suckered into moves that they would not usually take and they are left hanging as the correlations swing back into position. It’s all very messy and typical of a CHOP FEST market driven by huge uncertainties and large unexpected moves that require time to consolidate and bed in, which of course is not happening at the moment.</li>
 	<li>We had a situation on Friday when both the USD and GOLD were rallying at the same time, which can happen. However this is a correlation when, if out of sync spells danger ahead, usually for equities. The markets are definitely adjusting to the huge JPY move, the BOJ positioning and the effect on OIL prices.</li>
</ol>
Basically, we are in RED ALERT…DEFCON 1 territory in my opinion.

The JPY after the ECB and the FED is the third largest central bank and whilst the markets have given two fingers to the BOJ actions on policy, the ramifications of this will need to work through the comparative pricing and we will need to see some consolidation.

Right now we have not even seen a pullback of 30-40 pips never mind a 38% retracement, not even a 23.6% retracement of the move has happened yet. Until we see a bit of normality I think, as traders should remain at DEFCON 1.

There is always the fear of central bank intervention. Just because the BOJ said its not interested in acting to intervene means nothing as history shows.

<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>
<ol start="4">
 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) EXCLUSIVE CONTENT:
</strong>(This area contains exclusive content for PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) subscribers)</li>
</ol>
<strong>THE PREMIUM SERVICE – TRADING REVIEW: </strong>

TRADING REVIEW:

Not a lot to report on this past week.

The RBNZ really pissed me off and the continued strength in the NZD is bugging the crap out of me. It is an annoying currency at the best of times, and yet, it used to be my favourite.

Having said that the RBNZ will ease once, maybe twice more this year with the next rate cut expected at the next meeting. After this meeting I will tidy up all the AUD/NZD, GBP/NZD and NZD/USD trades and trim them back to just a core trade from which to add fresh trades. Over the past few weeks I have been closing them in the wrong order really and took pips sometimes at the wrong times.

I am still very bearish the CHF pairs and over the next couple of weeks I want to look to add back AUD/CHF and either CAD/CHF or NZD/CHF trades. I have a full portfolio in position of USD/CHF trades at the moment and I know when I would like to add further positions.

Looking at the April performance; generating 2,236 pips in profit has placed the PREMIUM SERVICE only 25 pips behind the 2015 performance for the same period. To quote an old English footballer Jimmy Greaves – “I am over the moon saint” (The “saint” reference was to greaves’ TV pundit co-presenter Ian St John).

In April, the percentage relationship between profit and loss making trades was 84% v 16%, this I am really happy with given the fact that we are in a CHOP FEST market. Year to date the performance is 77% v 23%, just above my 75% v 25% annual objective.

I am going to continue looking for longer-term set-ups, because at the moment the shorter-term views are frankly rather pointless. I am not and never will be a 5 to 15 minute trader; whilst I have done trades like these I do NOT consider myself really good at it, so I would rather play to my strengths.

My tour preparations are still progressing well and I am still learning more about POWERPOINT as everyday passes. I have quite a few people promised to attend now and seats are starting to fill up, even though the full-on media advertising is not scheduled to commence until early June.

I just hope that with all the costs of promotion etc. and getting there that I can get bums on seats. If you have people who are interested in attending, please get them to register at <a href="mailto:events@thepremiumservice.com">events@thepremiumservice.com</a>

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SUBSCRIPTIONS:

The subscriptions change never happened last week. Between my time available and diary pressures with Claudia (web site guru) we never got a chance to sit down and run through everything.

It will be done this week - it has to be. I am now getting pressure from my new gateway provider to make the switch away from PayPal.

<strong> </strong>

<strong>TRADES REVIEW:</strong>

The excel spreadsheets below details current LIVE and pending LIMIT ORDER trades: -

<strong> <a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/LIVE-TRADES-30042016.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-7705" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/LIVE-TRADES-30042016.png" alt="LIVE TRADES 30042016" width="830" height="587" /></a></strong>

<strong> </strong>

<strong><a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/LIMIT-ORDERS-30042016.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-7704" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/LIMIT-ORDERS-30042016.png" alt="LIMIT ORDERS 30042016" width="760" height="459" /></a> </strong>
<ol start="5">
 	<li><strong> COMING UP THIS WEEK:</strong></li>
</ol>
<u>THIS WEEK’S FOREX NEWS THAT INTERESTS ME:</u>

(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market other than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to <a href="http://www.forexfactory.com">www.forexfactory.com</a> and <a href="http://www.tradingeconomics.com">www.tradingeconomics.com</a> for a more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).
SUNDAY: N/A.

MONDAY: EUR – Mario Draghi (ECB) speaks.
MONDAY: CHF – Thomas Jordan (SNB) speaks.
MONDAY: AUD – Building Approvals.
MONDAY: CNY – Manufacturing PMi.

TUESDAY: AUD – RBA interest Rate and Monetary Policy Statement.
TUESDAY: AUD – Annual Budget.
TUESDAY: GBP – Manufacturing PMi.
TUESDAY: NZD – GDT Price (Dairy Auction Results)
TUESDAY: CAD – Stephen Poloz (BOC) speaks.
TUESDAY: NZD – Employment Data.

WEDNESDAY: GBP – Construction PMi.
WEDNESDAY: USD – ADP Non-Farm Employment Change.
WEDNESDAY: CAD – Trade Balance.
WEDNESDAY: AUD – Retail Sales and Trade Balance.

THURSDAY: GBP – Services PMi.
THURSDAY: AUD – RBA Monetary Policy Statement.

FRIDAY: CAD – Employment Data.
FRIDAY: USD – Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate.

<u> </u>

<u>THE USD MAJORS – MY THOUGHTS (A REVIEW): </u>

(In this section I have as usual kept my charts as minimalist as possible. With regards to charting in my opinion less is more!! I hope that they are clear. All readers regardless of level of experience should be able to follow my thoughts from my comments to the levels on the charts with ease)

EUR/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.1445

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/EURUSD-D-30042016.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-7710" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/EURUSD-D-30042016-1024x477.png" alt="EURUSD D 30042016" width="1024" height="477" /></a>

GBP/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.4607

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/GBPUSD-D-30042016.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-7711" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/GBPUSD-D-30042016-1024x477.png" alt="GBPUSD D 30042016" width="1024" height="477" /></a>

AUD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.7606

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/AUDUSD-D-30042016.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-7709" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/AUDUSD-D-30042016-1024x477.png" alt="AUDUSD D 30042016" width="1024" height="477" /></a>

NZD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.6979

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/NZDUSD-D-30042016.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-7712" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/NZDUSD-D-30042016-1024x477.png" alt="NZDUSD D 30042016" width="1024" height="477" /></a>

USD/CAD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.2552

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/USDCAD-D-30042016.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-7713" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/USDCAD-D-30042016-1024x477.png" alt="USDCAD D 30042016" width="1024" height="477" /></a>

USD/CHF - Weekly Closing Price: 0.9592

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/USDCHF-D-30042016.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-7714" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/USDCHF-D-30042016-1024x477.png" alt="USDCHF D 30042016" width="1024" height="477" /></a>

USD/JPY - Weekly Closing Price: 106.31

<u><a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/USDJPY-D-30042016.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-7715" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/USDJPY-D-30042016-1024x477.png" alt="USDJPY D 30042016" width="1024" height="477" /></a></u>

<u> </u>

<u>MY CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>

We ended last week with the USD on the back foot. The JPY had fallen off the edge of the cliff.

This week we have Draghi, Jordan and Poloz on the wires… a fine compilation of central bankers if there ever was one.

There is a lot of AUD news including the RBA statement, NZD dairy auctions prices and jobs data, plus jobs data from Canada and the U.S. with Non-Farm payrolls closing the week.

It will be busy and we still have to cope with the JPY fallout and the YEN EFFECT.

Always remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.

Take care,

Scott Pickering
The Pip Accumulator

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/">https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>

DATE: 30th April 2016
BLOG REFERENCE: #100 PREMIUM SERVICE

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