(10355,1,'2017-11-04 04:32:57','2017-11-04 09:32:57','&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThe previous week it was a DRAGHI THUNDERBOLT that hit the FX market and last week it was Mark Carney’s turn. Carney is seen as a bit of a DOVE more so than a HAWK by the market; I see him as a “Flip-Flopper” more than anything else, however last Thursday with the precision of one of Daenerys Targaryen’s dragons SPAT FIRE over the assembled and eagerly listening cable bulls.\r\n\r\nWe saw moves of 200 pips lower with GBP/USD and the crosses which are monsters at the best of times moved considerably more, GBP/AUD and GBP/NZD circa. 400 pips range on the day.\r\n\r\nFrom my own perspective, I did NOT play the BOE Super Thursday very well. I was expecting a rally on the announcement into which as I had written to PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers during the week I was looking to fade as I was expecting a DOVISH HIKE.\r\n\r\nWe had a DOVISH HIKE but the selloff started in the late Asian session from the prior day and continued through the European session. As the announcement came basically the selloff intensified.\r\n\r\nI was set up mentally for cable to fail, but not in the way it happened.\r\n\r\nI talk a great deal about RISK MANAGEMENT, TRADE MANAGEMENT and TRADING PSYCHOLOGY, which I am now calling MIND MANAGEMENT. I never had my MIND MANAGEMENT in the correct place.\r\n\r\nI only partially participated in the GBP move and made poor selections of trading pairs on the day. I banked small losses. Privately, I made reasonable $$$ scalping the market. Overall, however, I was very disappointed with my Super Thursday performance.\r\n\r\nWe move on…\r\n\r\nTHE PREMIUM SERVICE as at 31st October 2017, has now beaten its annual net pip target of 10,000 pips. To the end of October 2017, the pip total stands at 10,402 pips.\r\n\r\nI am delighted… Happy Days.\r\n\r\nThe 2016 total was a record at 13,575 pips. Whilst I have always beaten the 10,000-pip target since the PREMIUM SERVICE started in 2014, last year’s total will a tall order. But as it is often said… “Onwards and Upwards”.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong></strong><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong>&nbsp;</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>2.1: LOOKING BACK AT LAST WEEK’S NEWS.\r\n</u>\r\nHere is what tickled my fancy in the news last week as a currency trader.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>BOE</u></strong><u>: SUPER THURSDAY &amp; PMi DATA.</u>\r\n\r\nA few weeks ago, when Mark Carney announced that UK interest rates could be rising earlier than previously thought to fight off inflation which was running at an annual rate of c.3%, I wrote saying that “CARNEY COMES OUT OF THE CLOSET”.\r\n\r\nThis move from DOVE to HAWK meant that the cable which previously had been under pressure from BREXIT leapt up like a rat up a drainpipe and sped towards 1.3300. There was talk of a re-test of 52W highs around 1.3650.\r\n\r\nLast Thursday Carney announced basically a DOVISH 0.25% rate hike… a one and done event. His commentary was as DOVISH as it comes and the cable fell like a lead balloon.\r\n\r\nThe unwinding of cable longs started hours earlier as the realism of a DOVISH HIKE came more and more into the reality and traders of all sizes squared off positions.\r\n\r\nThe MPC vote was 7-2 in favour of the hike. The two dissenters being Jon Cunliffe and David Ramsden.\r\n\r\nThe main takeaways from Carney’s press conference were in my opinion: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>MPC sees wage growth picking up in 2018</li>\r\n 	<li>MPC believes that the tighter labour market will boost wages.</li>\r\n 	<li>BREXIT deal will affect the exchange rates</li>\r\n 	<li>Rates will be adjusted either up or down on a BREXIT resolution.</li>\r\n 	<li>MPC wants to use the Bank rate as an instrument of BOE policy rather than QE.</li>\r\n 	<li>Rates must be higher before reversing QE.</li>\r\n 	<li>Inflation back at 2% will help make BREXIT a success\r\n(God knows what the feck they were smoking to come up with this line!!</li>\r\n 	<li>UK rate decision not driven by the exchange rate….\r\n(My arse!!)</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nMy thoughts are that it was a mistake to raise rates. Asked by the press did he think it was a mistake, Mark Carney responded with it was a “nimble response” to an unprecedented set of circumstances. The fact that cable sold off only adds fuel to UK inflation. It was cables devaluation that is basically what has fueled the inflation position. Ironic that a rate hike caused cable to devalue again, the irony of that fact should not be lost on the MPC!\r\n\r\nUK interest rates are to remain low for an extended period well into 2019.\r\n\r\nWith the rate hike out of the way we can now concentrate on the main event… BREXIT\r\n\r\nUK PMi data last week was stronger than expected, and took me by surprise I only expected a beat with service PMi:\r\n\r\nConstruction              50.8 versus 48.3\r\nManufacturing           56.3 versus 55.8\r\nServices                      55.6 versus 53.3\r\n\r\n<strong><u>\r\nUSD:</u></strong><u> FOMC, FED CHAIR, GOP TAX PLAN, ADP &amp; NFP.</u>\r\n\r\nA huge amount of economic and political data last week from the U.S. All this and not even a mention of TWITTER.\r\n\r\nThe FED CHAIR announcement went off without incident. JEROME POWELL, subject to senate approval will replace Janet Yellen next February. When the announcement was made, I had to hold my head back to stop the blood from my nose bleed dripping all over my apple keyboard. It was such a shock to my body to have a TRUMP announcement without drama attached… total shock to my system.\r\n\r\nA couple of points for dinner table conversation about Janet Yellen’s tenure at the FED.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>When she became FED CHAIR the USD (DXY) was at 81.00.</li>\r\n 	<li>The DXY has been falling since TRUMPS inauguration 101.00.</li>\r\n 	<li>Today after 10 months of falling it still stands at 94.00.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nMy point here is that after the GFC when the DXY stood at 70.00, following on from Ben Bernanke she guided the DXY to about the mid-point given that in 2000 the DXY was at 120.00. Personally, without TRUMP the DXY would be well into triple digits by now.\r\n\r\nThe FOMC statement a day earlier passed us by without incident.  The FX market did its usual thing by the odd flexing here and there but to be honest it was an all “fur coat and no knickers” event.\r\n\r\nThe TAX PLAN release was for me, mixed into the background as the BOE press conference fall out was still in full swing. The previous day there was a rumour in the Asian session that reductions in the corporate tax rate would either be phased in or phased out, or both…. From what I can gather this was a bullsh*t rumour.\r\n\r\nWith regards to the jobs data; ADP was a nice bear 235k against an expectation of 202k. NFP missed at 261k versus 312k. The unemployment rate dipped from 4.2% to 4.1%. Hourly earnings 0.0% versus 0.2% expected.\r\n\r\nJobs data was poor so the USD strengthened go figure.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2: LOOKING AHEAD TO THIS COMING WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n2.2.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/ECON-DATA-0512017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10338\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/ECON-DATA-0512017-1024x705.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"705\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.2: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/TCHART-05112017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10339\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/TCHART-05112017-1024x844.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"844\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.3: USD – TRADING CHARTS and COMMENTARIES: </u>\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>EUR/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/EURUSD-D-05112017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10349\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/EURUSD-D-05112017-1024x411.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"411\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/GBPUSD-D-05112017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10350\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/GBPUSD-D-05112017-1024x411.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"411\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/AUDUSD-D-05112017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10348\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/AUDUSD-D-05112017-1024x411.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"411\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/NZDUSD-D-05112017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10351\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/NZDUSD-D-05112017-1024x411.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"411\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/USDCAD-D-05112017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10352\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/USDCAD-D-05112017-1024x411.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"411\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/USDCHF-D-05112017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10353\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/USDCHF-D-05112017-1024x411.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"411\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/USDJPY-D-05112017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10354\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/USDJPY-D-05112017-1024x411.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"411\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.4: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:</u>\r\n\r\nThe Antipodean currencies rule this week!\r\n\r\n<strong><u>NZD:</u></strong><u> RBNZ RATE STATEMENT &amp; PRESS CONFERENCE</u>.\r\n\r\nI am NOT expecting any fireworks this week. Grant aka “Frank” Spencer has already stated no change and dovish for an extended period.\r\n\r\nI will be looking to see what, if anything, is said vis-à-vis the new Labour Party coalition governments intentions to expand the role of the RBNZ.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>AUD:</u></strong><u> RBA RATE STATEMENT &amp; MONETARY POLICY STATEMENT.</u>\r\n\r\nI am not expecting any move on interest rates. Philip Lowe has been very straightforward since becoming governor. He is clear and unambiguous and his is his own man. He has been happy of late to remain neutral and is in no rush to increase interest rates, far from it.\r\n\r\nAs with most monetary policy and rate statements the “verbal’s” give us the clues. I am expecting more of the same. No fireworks just a status quo report.\r\n\r\nThis may change in 2018, but for now it is only the FED that has an open normalization policy on interest rates. This suits other currencies like the AUD because the result with FED policy should be that the USD strengthens based upon interest rate differentiation causing other currencies to weaken.\r\n\r\nA weaker currency is always preferred and this can be achieved by the likes of the RBA with no work. It’s all in theory done for them by the FED.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.5: HOW TO PLAY THE MARKET THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\nThere was a lot jammed into last week that made me believe that caution was the best route forward. Trading FX always has RISK involved and at the end of the day it’s all about MANAGING RISK in conjunction with both TRADE MANAGEMENT and MIND MANAGEMENT.\r\n\r\nLast week finished with USD strength returning and I see this renewed USD strength remaining with the markets into the early part of this week, if not more than that.\r\n\r\nGeopolitical factors such as “THE TRUMP GOODWILL TOUR OF ASIA”, which was given a good old dose U.S. hospitality with nuclear weapons loaded bombers flying up and down the Korean coast. It doesn’t bear thinking about.\r\n\r\nBREXIT and poor old Theresa May will hit the headlines this week now that Carney’s BOE super Thursday event is behind us. However, we should remember that moves in cable are still just one UK negative BREXIT announcement from a fall, or one positive announcement away from a spike higher.\r\n\r\nOIL appears to be settling around the USD$60.00 level. Anything higher will get the U.S. shale production lifting off which will drive prices back towards USD$50.00 per barrel.\r\n\r\nSo…\r\n\r\nWith that as my back drop how will I be approaching the FX market this week.\r\n\r\nWithout much economic data, this week and with the “RED” FX data emanating from mainly AUD and NZD, one would think I had a pretty clear plan in place. Unfortunately, with all the geopolitical nonsense around and with TRUMP off home soil the potential for gaffs is heightened.\r\n\r\nThe USD is news driven at the moment, and, if the USD is news driven almost everything else currency wise falls victim.\r\n\r\nI have cross rates that interest me and they are a great option away from the USD.  The JPY crosses are of interest but I never seem to personally have great success with them. Recently, the NZD/JPY has been good and the AUD/JPY is back on my RADAR once again after closing it just ahead of NFP last week. But with TRUMP in Asia maybe the JPY should not be such a focus. However, the parabolic rise in the NIKKEI does have me alert to JPY shorts.\r\n\r\nHaving written all that, I still see being long the USD as the immediate route. I do not think it will last for long as I see this USD strength technical and I expect the move higher to stop and then USD weakness will come back and force the DXY lower. (See the DXY chart below)\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/DXY-05112017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10340\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/DXY-05112017-1024x520.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"520\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nOverall, I would be looking to establish positions in cross rates. GBP crosses may need some time to wash out oversold conditions. EUR crosses long in the medium term excite me, but not quite yet.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is my own subscriber based Forex support service that offers subscribers my suggested trade set-ups and market commentaries.\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting the HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE tab.\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT 2017 PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nPIPS ADDED LAST WEEK:           = +122 pips\r\nPIPS MONTH TO DATE:                = +122 pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE:                              = +10,524 pips\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs on my website  <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\nAlternatively, if you prefer to watch a video recording about the PREMIUM SERVICE, click the link below. You will be directed to a 40-minute webinar presentation entitled “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE”.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS ONLY:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4.1: TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\nOCTOBER 2017:\r\nMonthly total = 2,896 pips\r\nTOTAL to 31.10.2017 = 10,402 pips\r\n\r\nNOTE: I have a contingent liability of 700 pips sitting with 3 x USD/CAD hedges, which may be deducted from YTD total.\r\n\r\nIt goes without saying that October was a great month.\r\n\r\nThe hedges and heavy trading with cross rates has stretched the drawdowns which whilst I am not happy with as a purist it is a by-product of hedging and cross rate trading when you need wider stops in play to cover volatility. This obviously increases RISK.\r\n\r\nAll that to one side; you trade with your eyes wide open and with RISK MANAGEMENT in play.\r\n\r\nRISK to loss trades for the last month was 79% / 21% and year to date I am now finally in line with my objective of 75% / 25%.\r\n\r\nThe pip total for the year is now just 1,289 pips behind the 2016 record of 13,575. I do not see last year’s total being beaten this year and frankly given everything that has gone by this year so far, to be close to 10,000 at this time of the year is frankly incredible.\r\n\r\nThe split of trade styles continues to consolidate:\r\n\r\n497 Total trades to 31.12.2017.\r\n\r\nFLASH                       = 47 trades    = 9.5%\r\nRADAR                      = 57 trades     =11.5%\r\nFUNDAMENTAL      = 158 trades    = 32%\r\nPOSITION                 = 235 trades   = 47%\r\n\r\nI am not too sure how to add more commentary to this other than since the middle of 2015, and nothing has fundamentally changed in my opinion, day trading to swing trading, which was what I was when I started trading has become a thing of rarity to obtain what I determine a trading consistency. Since mid 2015 my reliance on shorter term trades via FLASH &amp; RADAR trades has lessened and my definitions of these trade styles need to be updated for 2018.\r\n\r\nThe markets this year have resulted in another fundamental change in the sense that the timed length of my trades has lessened. The market volatility and swings in sentiment and direction have created on many occasions trades with longer term horizons being closed early or being heavily modified. It is frustrating and annoying to trade and to follow I get that, but the market is what it is.\r\n\r\nWhen I re-define the trade style definitions for 2018, I will try to get a set of working parameters in place.\r\n\r\nI am looking at linking the ATR to the stop on trades somehow to avoid having to do a trade amendment. This reduces administration time but increases the contingent liability of your broker account when it may not be required. It is not easy.\r\n\r\nI am working on ideas for 2018 to add more value and to MANAGE RISK.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.2: SENTIMENT CHART,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nI struggled last week and played the “Super Thursday” like a bloody numpty. I have beaten myself up about it and now I am ready to move forward.\r\n\r\nWe have USD strength back in the market, but I think a lot of USD long traders will get caught out in the medium term. Should they ramp up position sizes / I am still a believer in trading nimble. Call me chicken, call me what you like but in a news driven trading environment in which we operate at the moment, it is very difficult to be strategic and it is virtually impossible to let trades mature and add.\r\n\r\nMy exception but it may NOT be your favourite…\r\n\r\nI have been long the AUD/NZD for about two years. It has been a great $$$ earner but you must take the rough with the smooth. At time I sit out huge loss positions and add to my overall position on a regular basis. Not everyone can trade like this and not everyone wants to. I could NOT and nor would I dream of this style of trading for USD or JPY related currencies. We are in a massive unwinding pattern and bit by bit, piece by piece, this pair is unfolding back to about 1.2000 – 1.2500 in my opinion. I thought that we would have been there by now to be honest.\r\n\r\nWe have a Labour led collation with NZ First in power. They have a strong mandate politically and economically which when pushed through is a game changer. Personally, I have no problem being long AUD/NZD back at 1.0540. Fundamentally, I know where fair value sits and we are a long way away.\r\n\r\nThis pair gives me between 10%-15% of my annual pip return, maybe a little more.\r\n\r\nIn a news driven environment I am trying to look away from USD, JPY and CHF which are very responsive to news.\r\n\r\nFundamentally, the EUR and GBP cross rates are excellent options to look at. These have been what can only be described this year as “great little earners” but…. Because of their volatility, I have suffered bigger percentage draw down losses on cross rate trades. Striking the balance is hard.\r\n\r\nMoving on and looking into the future…\r\n\r\nHumour me…\r\n\r\nLet’s assume the leader of the “FREE WORLD” has a great “GOODWILL TRIP” with no fuck ups and delivers a blueprint for lasting peace in the region.\r\n\r\nWhen this happens, I am short CHF across the board. This pair is being held back because of geopolitical tensions and the GOLD flight to safety trade.\r\n\r\nIn the background negotiations between Rex and Mathis and representatives of little rocket man are taking place when an agreement is tied it won’t be rockets that soar but the CHF. I will be getting long a combination of GBP/CHF, EUR/CHF, AUD/CHF, CAD/CHF, NZD/CHF and USD/CHF or short CHF/JPY.\r\n\r\nIn the interim however its cross rates for now. I have to let the recent moves flush out. I have levels in mind.\r\n\r\nI want to mention the GBP.\r\n\r\nThis currency is a pain in the arse. We are at all times a news headline away from a breakdown or a spike. However, very soon, probably faster than I think the BREXIT deal is either going to start to come together or fall flat on its arse. One way or another we are going to have the move of all moves in the GBP because the uncertainty will be over. We will be dealing with facts only.\r\n\r\nI want to be long GBP/USD, GBP/NZD, GBP/CAD, GBP/AUD and GBP/CHF and short EUR/GBP… bigly. I am very close to taking extremely long term trades and placing them in a separately funded account allowing for growth based upon Monthly ATR levels plus!\r\n\r\nLook at current levels and the pre-BREXIT levels, there are about 10,000 pips coming back into play in my opinion, and that is to only take us back to the time of the vote. Take away the uncertainty at the time of the vote and there are more.\r\n\r\nGBP/USD      now 1.3100   pre-BREXIT  1.4500\r\nGBP/AUD      now 1.7100   pre-BREXIT  2.0000\r\nGBP/CAD      now 1.6700   pre-BREXIT  1.7200\r\nGBP/NZD      now 1.8900   pre-BREXIT  2.1500\r\nGBP/CHF      now 1.3100   pre-BREXIT  1.4500\r\n\r\nBasically, there is a great opportunity here and whilst I cannot see 10,000 pips being grabbed it would be great to be able to capture maybe 5,000 -6,000 pips.\r\n\r\nThe RISK / REWARD is what is on my action item list next. We have moved quite away from the extreme lows so I have levels to work with and establish absolute RISK.\r\n\r\nI will provide an update on this very soon.\r\n\r\nWith regards to MARKET SENTIMENT its looking consistent this week. USD strength is almost across the board. This should bode well into early trading this week. (Do NOT forget TRUMP)\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/MARKET-SENTIMENT-05112017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10343\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/MARKET-SENTIMENT-05112017-780x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"780\" height=\"1024\" />\r\n</a>\r\n\r\n<u>4.3: EXISTING CORE TRADES (PLANS &amp; STRATEGIES):</u>\r\n\r\nI am STILL bearish the CAD and NZD currencies.\r\n\r\nThe CAD is on the back burner for now. I STILL have three HEDGED trades to work through.\r\n\r\nThe NZD I am waiting for a pullback to use the opportunity to re-load again across the board.\r\n\r\nThe market itself at the moment is range bound and daily moves are for the most part quite limiting. Obviously, days such as “Super Thursday”, which combined with the TRUMP TAX PLAN and FED CHAIR announcement are few and far between. We even had a short squeeze thrown into the same day for good measure.\r\n\r\nThe market needs to re-balance before we move forward once again. With the week being a great deal quieter, I have a feeling that it could be a slow week which, will allow of stretched conditions to work through charts etc.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE CAD:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nCurrently, I am live the following: -\r\n\r\n3 x live short USD/CAD trades. All three are HEDGED. No OUT trades are placed yet.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: My belief is still that the USD/CAD is a short trade. I was waiting for 1.3000 to establish 3 x “OUT” trades for my HEDGED trades.  That looks like a bit of a dream level today. The recent highs have topped out around 1.2915 on two or three occasions. That level is someway away at the moment. I am expecting USD strength to continues for some time and at the moment there is a disconnect between the CAD and WTi, I want to use the USD strength to sell into this week or next week if possible and establish my “OUT” trades for these HEDGES.\r\n\r\nI have no plans currently to place / related trades against other pairs.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE NZD</u></strong>:\r\n\r\nCurrently I have 4 x live AUD/NZD and a GBP/NZD long trades and NZD/JPY and NZD/CHF short trades.\r\n\r\nPlus: - I have 2 x AUD/NZD and a NZD/USD, NZD/JPY and NZD/CAD limit order trades in position.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: I will be looking to add NZD trades across the board as soon as I see a meaningful pullback to provide beneficial pricing.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.4: CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\nCURRENT LIVE TRADES:\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/LIVE-05112017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10342\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/LIVE-05112017-862x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"862\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\nCURRENT LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/LIMIT-05112017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10341\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/LIMIT-05112017-1024x943.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"943\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.5: FX BROKER NEWS with their MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\nNothing new this week.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FINISHING LINE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5.1: WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you have read in this blog and would like the chance to win a FREE SUBSCRIPTION valued at CAD$150.00, all you need to do is subscribe to my FREE NEWSLETTER (this blog), by adding your email address on my welcome page just below my cube logo at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.2: PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTIONS:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you’ve read in this blog and should you want to go a stage further and subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE, this can be done on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the Tab SUBSCRIBE HERE.\r\n\r\nSubscribing to the PREMIUM SERVICE is not just about receiving a larger “DRIVE THRU” blog packed with more trading supporting information, my thoughts and ideas. There is much more to a subscription than those things. Check it all out under the tab HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nAlternatively, if you prefer to watch a video recording about the PREMIUM SERVICE, click the link below. You will be directed to a 40-minute webinar presentation entitled “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE”.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.3: CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\n\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @ThePremService\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\r\n</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #154 PREMIUM SERVICE\r\n5th November 2017','CARNEY SPITS FIRE AT CABLE BULLS','','publish','open','closed','','carney-spits-fire-cable-bulls','','','2018-01-18 13:59:05','2018-01-18 18:59:05','',0,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?post_type=member_posts&#038;p=10355',0,'member_posts','',0),(10147,1,'2017-09-30 08:00:35','2017-09-30 13:00:35','&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nMy PREMIUM SERVICE AUTUMN/FALL PROMOTION ends this weekend, on Sunday 1st October at the market open 5PM EST (New York time) to be precise. So, if you want to get on board and get some $$$ in line for Christmas and beyond go to my website and subscribe. <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nThe outstanding items from last week remain outstanding items this week.\r\n\r\nThey are…\r\n\r\nI still need to complete my PREMIUM SERVICE video.\r\n\r\nMy EA’s (Expert Advisors - Algorithms) that I mentioned last week are STILL outstanding.\r\n\r\nNot that I need to offer up excuses, but I started cleaning my computer files. I thought that I had all three Macs linked, but… apparently not. My trading computer that drives my screens is purpose built but runs on MSFT software for the brokers and so getting this stuff across and into a library was a little tedious. Those of you who I have interacted with know that I am a trader and NOT a computer whizz kid or geek.\r\n\r\nI recently re-connected with my old neighbour in Dublin, who can run rings around the best of folk on machines, software limits, apps etc. At the best of times, it’s another bloody language to me.\r\n\r\nFrom last week, the word of the week was….\r\n\r\n<strong>“PATIENCE”</strong>\r\n\r\nFrom my perspective I banked $$$ and pips but what a struggle. I am carrying CORE POSITIONS now with negative positions and I am patiently waiting for the markets to re-set.\r\n\r\nI will cover the following in more detail later but the GERMAN and NEW ZEALAND ELECTION RESULTS, STEPHEN POLOZ (BOC), JANET YELLEN and “FLIP-FLOPPER” MARK CARNEY to name but a few were all screwing with me.\r\n\r\nI was basically badly positioned for the events but looking down from a MACRO level with my FUNDAMENTALS in place, I feel I am correctly pointed.\r\n\r\nI was trying to be patient and get myself re-positioned to be ready to take advantage moving forward. I am getting there bit by bit with my CORE POSITIONS adjustments have been made and additions are now in place.\r\n\r\nI think back in 2013 I wrote an entire section in the blog about trading with patience is one of the hardest things to do. The need to believe that you must be trading every day, can be overwhelming when in fact cash is a position and to be sidelined for 24-48 hours is not a bad thing to let the markets re-set.\r\n\r\nIt is hard at times because there are other factors hanging over the markets such as NORTH KOREA, the TRUMP TAX PLAN and BREXIT the re-setting takes a little longer as positions are skewed. Also with last week being both a month and quarter end it was quite a cocktail.\r\n\r\nWith some degree of PATIENCE having been applied I am now ready for the final quarter of 2017.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>2.1: LOOKING BACK AT LAST WEEK’S NEWS.</u>\r\n\r\nIn no special order, here is what floated my boat last week.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>EUR</u></strong><u>: THE GERMAN NATIONAL ELECTIONS and THE CATALONIA ISSUE.</u>\r\n\r\nHoly shit. The press never saw that coming. The “Far Right” now have a good number of seats in parliament and poor old Angela Merkel has her work cut out forming a government excluding the “AfD” party.\r\nAmericans point fingers at TRUMP with 48% or whatever it was of the turnout and he occupies the White House. Merkel only received 32% of the popular vote. I am finding it very hard in the west to recall the last government that was in power based upon being more than 50% of the popular vote.\r\n\r\nAnyways back to the point…\r\n\r\nThe election outcome leaves a bitter taste in the mouth of many “jotter blotters” in Brussels as their gravy train of expenses, potted plants, Chateauneuf-du-Pape on Friday’s and lavish pensions may be coming to an end as there are pledges to manage costs… yeah right, my arse!!\r\n\r\nOn that point, I read with interest but absolutely ZERO SURPRISE that EU BREXIT negotiator Michel Barnier, so far has racked up travel expenses to the tune of €47,417.60 since October 1st, 2016. This will be a drop in the ocean when all is said and done. The amount of €€€€ wasted in the EUROPEAN UNION is massive. This bill no matter what it ends up being when added to all the other BREXIT BILLS created will be swept under the carpet as the EU will say it was covered by the UK in their divorce fees. It will be €millions.\r\n\r\nThese; pen pushing, jotter blotters in Brussels know how to spend money… it’s all billable.\r\n\r\nBack to the EUR…\r\n\r\nThe single currency was kicked back from its breakout move by the FOMC the previous week and just as it was starting to breathe again the German Election result kicked it hard in the samosas and from my perspective it looks constructive to re-test lower support levels moving forward.\r\n\r\nAt the time of writing this blog, I freely admit to being a little confused. Is the Catalan vote on or off?\r\n\r\nThe independence vote is creating a constitutional crisis with government in Madrid saying its illegal. The 8 million people or thereabouts who live in North Eastern Spain have wanted independence for some time…in fact quite some time. Courts have already brandished the vote illegal should it go ahead. The government has seized ballot papers and locked polling booths. It’s all very unclear to me what is happening.\r\n\r\nFrom a currency perspective, obviously, the Catalan vote / issue has the potential to be very EUR negative.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>CAD</u></strong><u>: STEPHEN POLOZ SPEECH IN ST. JOHNS.</u>\r\n\r\nWTF.\r\n\r\nI was NOT alone being wrong footed on this speech. Hindsight is a beautiful thing.\r\n\r\nThe previous rate hikes got so much bang for their buck with a movement of about $0.15cents for a combined increase of 0.50%, the BOC is probably on PROZAC worried about the markets getting carried away with another hike on the cards.\r\n\r\nPoloz reeled everyone back in. “No predetermined path for rates” that\'s a great line. Bottom line, I still see the data from Canada being good and therefore it is inevitable that they will raise rates again this year.\r\n\r\nDare I mention my conspiracy theory once again? I reckon they all go (FED, BOE, ECB and BOC) on the same day. This would have the effect of stopping mad swings day after day in December as Central Banks adjust their policies.\r\n\r\nThen again, from a trading perspective its better if they go one at a time. If you want to trade each event separately there is a choice and a better opportunity to make $$$ as you would be better focused.\r\n\r\nAnyway…\r\n\r\nI had to adjust trades and take losses on the back of the Poloz speech. I am now back and ready to face the BOC and Poloz head on!!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>NZD: RBNZ RATE STATEMENT, CASH RATE and THE GENERAL ELECTION</u>.\r\n\r\nIt’s another WTF!\r\n\r\nI am going to show my age here and some of you may need to google this but Grant “aka Frank” Spencer temporary Governor of the RBNZ, now in charge of the keys to Wheeler’s drinks cabinet for the chaps, announced that New Zealand interest rates would remain accommodative for an extended period of time.\r\n\r\nI expected the Kiwi to drop faster than a lead balloon. I was ready, NZD/USD, EUR/NZD, GBP/NZD and AUD/NZD on the news not really much happened at all. Not really a flicker… bugger.\r\n\r\nThe Election is still taking its toll. Another weak coalition government needs to be formed. This will take some time by all accounts. PATIENCE with the NZD will be required it will flip-flop around in my opinion between 0.7150 to 0.7250 until we get a resolution.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP</u></strong><u>: CARNEY’S SPEECHES, CURRENT ACCOUNT DATA.</u>\r\n\r\nThere is nothing much new that I can add to what I have said before about Mark Carney.\r\n\r\nHe has given poor forward guidance over the years since arriving from the BOC replacing Merve “The Swerve” King as BOE Governor. He is a flip flopper, which, in general terms creates market instability the one core part of his job description he is employed to avoid.\r\n\r\nAt times, under the immense pressure of the job (and who would want it!), acts like a modern-day Pontius Pilate. It would not surprise me at a future BOE press conference or Parliamentary Committee hearing if we saw him behind his desk or podium with a basin of water and a hand towel.\r\n\r\nI think Carney has to go through with a one and done rate hike in the UK before the end of 2017. This of course does NOT mean he will despite all the rhetoric around the last interest rate statement and the 3.0% inflation level in the UK.\r\n\r\nCarney has the problem, Kuroda (BOJ), Draghi (ECB) and Janet Yellen at the Fed wished they had… inflation. Carney is caught between the devil and deep blue sea. The accountants (jotter blotters) have squeezed his balls so tight he has bent the knee and yielded to a potential / probable rate hike.\r\n\r\nHis latest speeches have taken the usual path: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>The BOE is not the savior of BREXIT.</li>\r\n 	<li>Worried about reckless lending as inflation bites and wages lag.</li>\r\n 	<li>Household debt is concerning, “short term damage… next 2-3 years!”</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nThe focus by many twitter feeds and analysts last Friday was based on the UK GDP data.  From my perspective given BREXIT and its potential effects on the City of London in particular, the UK Current Account data was more important. Although 90 days backward looking, it highlights the currency demand, income flows, values of imports and exports and basic banking transfers over the previous 90 days.\r\n\r\nWhy is it important to me?\r\n\r\nWith the banking industry and its supporting networks undergoing moves away from the UK as the BREXIT timetable moves forward, the flows will start to dry up causing an imbalance that the BOE must react to.\r\n\r\nThis quarter the forecasted number was:\r\n\r\nMinus £15.8 Billion the actual number was Minus £23.2 Billion.\r\n\r\nI believe a trend of misses will not start to form as banks and related institutions start the shift to mainland Europe and Ireland.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD</u></strong><u>: JANET YELLEN in or OUT? &amp; HER COMMENTS ABOUT INFLATION.</u>\r\n\r\nThis story will develop over the weekend but as we all know Janet Yellen’s tenure as FED CHAIR ends in February 2018. The debate over whether she stays on or ends had fueled much speculation over recent weeks and months.\r\n\r\nLast Friday it was announced or probably leaked that THE DONALD and his Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin interviewed former FED governor Kevin Warsh about replacing Yellen.\r\n\r\nWTF…\r\n\r\nThis follows on the back of her comments she disclosed last Tuesday during her speech to the National association for Business Economics. Yellen admitted that she doesn’t understand inflation, control of which is the FED’s number one responsibility. Apparently, all the FED’s working models on inflation are wrong.\r\n\r\nFFS…\r\n\r\nWhy didn’t she just resign on the spot?\r\n\r\nThis sort of thing beggar’s belief.\r\n\r\nIs everything about the U.S. just loud voices, bullshit and total bollocks?\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2: LOOKING AHEAD TO THIS COMING WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n2.2.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/ECON-DATE-01102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10106\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/ECON-DATE-01102017-1024x805.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"805\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n2.2.2: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-01102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10107\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-01102017-1024x848.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"848\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.3: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:</u>\r\n\r\nNot a lot this week to choose from. Here are my picks of the upcoming week.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP:  </u></strong><u>MANUFACTURING, CONSTRUCTION &amp; SERVICES PMI’s.</u>\r\n\r\nYikes; that was quick month!\r\n\r\nHere we go again with the PMI data. Last month all three were above the 50 line which signifies expansion. The one in danger of slipping below 50 is Construction PMI which last time around stood at 51.1. Should this fall below the dreaded 50 it will in my opinion place the proposed BOE interest rate hike due probably in November on hold.\r\n\r\n3% inflation or not I just cannot see the BOE raising rates in the environment that a sub 50 number would create.\r\n\r\nI am expecting a miss from Construction and Manufacturing PMI’s but a beat from the Services PMi.\r\n\r\nThe UK is going through a change and from my buddies on the ground (not literally), it is not being discussed at high level and to a large extent being swept under the carpet.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>AUD</u></strong><u>: RBA RATE STATEMENT, RETAIL SALES &amp; TRADE BALANCE.</u>\r\n\r\nIt is a big week for the AUD it rejected hard from 0.8000, mostly on the back of comments from RBA Governor Philip Lowe.\r\n\r\nDr. Lowe basically said that the Central Bank is not rushing to change direction of monetary policy just because a lot of other Central Banks are choosing to do so. Therefore, I cannot see the Cash Rate being moved from 1.5%.\r\n\r\nRetail Sales last month came in flat at 0.0%. Anything better which I assume we should see this time around will be a beat and be AUD positive.\r\n\r\nTrade Balance is sticky. This number in my opinion could go either way and the data will tell us whether the AUD spikes or continues to drift lower.\r\n\r\nAll three announcements are market movers. Trade Balance and Retail Sales are released at the same time Wednesday just to ensure we have ADVIL on hand!!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>CAD</u></strong><u>: TRADE BALANCE &amp; EMPLOYMENT DATA.</u>\r\n\r\nSo, after last week’s GDP was a bit soft, I am looking for strong data to support my CORE CAD TRADE POSITION, which for now looks sick. Patience is being applied in huge volume.\r\n\r\nLast month the jobs data disappointed because of the mix between part and full-time positions. I am thinking that it may be more of the same as we start the run up to Thanksgiving and Christmas festivities. Although, I must point out after what is deemed a poor or mediocre number one month from Canada the next month is usually a blowout.\r\n\r\nThis is truly what makes trading currencies such fun!!\r\n\r\nThe Trade Balance number is a sticky one. Last time being CAD$ -3.0 Billion. Trying to obtain very recent up to date data to give me a hint here has proved virtually impossible. More ADVIL required for this one!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD</u></strong><u>: ADP, NON-FARM PAYROLLS and AVERAGE HOURLIES</u>.\r\n\r\nFirst off.\r\n\r\nDo NOT get suckered in to trades based off the ADP numbers when planning your NFP day. The correlation between ADP data on a Wednesday from the private sector and the government data on a Friday has not seen any correlation of late. So, if you want to do a Robert Palmer, “Looking for Clues” there will probably be feck all in expecting NFP to follow ADP numbers.\r\n\r\nI must say this…\r\n\r\nWho give a f**k anyways? The Fed are raising rates come hell or high water, I for one will probably NOT trade NFP, it is a lottery and as an indicator for the FED forget it… that decision has been made. Plus, it looks like Yellen is NOT going to be around to pick up any pieces anyhow.\r\n\r\nI do not think NFP has any real importance this week. I could be proved wrong but I really do feel that the FED are raising no matter what.\r\n\r\nAs for the actual numbers; ADP last month was 237,000 and NFP was 156,000. If NFP keeps roughly to the last 12 month monthly average, the markets should not go too wild.\r\n\r\nThere should be an acceptance in the markets about the perceived FED policy… what am I saying!!\r\n\r\nObviously, the average hourly rate needs to remain positive and a jump of 0.1% would keep the markets happy.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is my own subscriber based Forex support service that offers subscribers my suggested trade set-ups and market commentaries.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting the HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE tab.\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT 2017 PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nFINAL WEEK THIS MONTH:         +302 pips\r\nMONTH OF SEPTEMBER 2017:  +1,175 net pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE 2017:                    +7,506 net pips\r\n\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs on my website  <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS ONLY:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>4.1: PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:</u><u>\r\n</u>(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)<u></u>\r\n\r\n4.1.1: TRADING REVIEW:\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>4.1.2: SENTIMENT,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.1.3: USD - SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS: </u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.1.4: USD – TRADING CHARTS and COMMENTARIES: </u><u></u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.1.5: EXISTING CORE TRADES (PLANS &amp; STRATEGIES):</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.1.6: CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.1.7: FX BROKER NEWS with their MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS &amp; IDEAS:</strong><strong> </strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5.1: WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you have read in this blog and would like the chance to win a FREE SUBSCRIPTION valued at CAD$150.00, all you should do is subscribe to my FREE NEWSLETTER (this blog), by adding your email address on my welcome page just below my cube logo at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\n<u>5.2: PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTIONS:</u>\r\n\r\nShould you want to go a stage further and subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE. This can be done on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the Tab SUBSCRIBE HERE.\r\n\r\nSubscribing to the PREMIUM SERVICE is not just about receiving a larger “DRIVE THRU” blog packed with more trading supporting information, my thoughts and ideas. There is much more to a subscription that those things. Check it all out under the tab HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nFrom time to time I offer subscription promotions. These can be viewed under the tab FX PROMOTIONS at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\n<strong>NOTE: There is a promotion in place right now and it expires Sunday 1st October at 5PM EST!</strong>\r\n\r\nI show below an interesting excel spreadsheet based around my PREMIUM SERVICE monthly subscription option of CAD$150.00 per month. I hope that you find this interesting.\r\n\r\n<u><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/CAD150-SUBSCRIPTION-240917.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10037\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/CAD150-SUBSCRIPTION-240917-912x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"912\" height=\"1024\" /></a></u>\r\n\r\n5.3: THE FINISHING LINE:\r\n\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #253 FREE NEWSLETTER\r\n1st October 2017\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','FED ADMITS IT HAS NO CLUE','','publish','open','closed','','fed-admits-no-clue','','','2017-09-30 08:13:58','2017-09-30 13:13:58','',0,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?p=10147',0,'post','',0),(10148,1,'2017-09-30 08:00:35','2017-09-30 13:00:35','&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nMy PREMIUM SERVICE AUTUMN/FALL PROMOTION ends this weekend, on Sunday 1st October at the market open 5PM EST (New York time) to be precise. So, if you want to get on board and get some $$$ in line for Christmas and beyond go to my website and subscribe. <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nThe outstanding items from last week remain outstanding items this week.\r\n\r\nThey are…\r\n\r\nI still need to complete my PREMIUM SERVICE video.\r\n\r\nMy EA’s (Expert Advisors - Algorithms) that I mentioned last week are STILL outstanding.\r\n\r\nNot that I need to offer up excuses, but I started cleaning my computer files. I thought that I had all three Macs linked, but… apparently not. My trading computer that drives my screens is purpose built but runs on MSFT software for the brokers and so getting this stuff across and into a library was a little tedious. Those of you who I have interacted with know that I am a trader and NOT a computer whizz kid or geek.\r\n\r\nI recently re-connected with my old neighbour in Dublin, who can run rings around the best of folk on machines, software limits, apps etc. At the best of times, it’s another bloody language to me.\r\n\r\nFrom last week, the word of the week was….\r\n\r\n<strong>“PATIENCE”</strong>\r\n\r\nFrom my perspective I banked $$$ and pips but what a struggle. I am carrying CORE POSITIONS now with negative positions and I am patiently waiting for the markets to re-set.\r\n\r\nI will cover the following in more detail later but the GERMAN and NEW ZEALAND ELECTION RESULTS, STEPHEN POLOZ (BOC), JANET YELLEN and “FLIP-FLOPPER” MARK CARNEY to name but a few were all screwing with me.\r\n\r\nI was basically badly positioned for the events but looking down from a MACRO level with my FUNDAMENTALS in place, I feel I am correctly pointed.\r\n\r\nI was trying to be patient and get myself re-positioned to be ready to take advantage moving forward. I am getting there bit by bit with my CORE POSITIONS adjustments have been made and additions are now in place.\r\n\r\nI think back in 2013 I wrote an entire section in the blog about trading with patience is one of the hardest things to do. The need to believe that you must be trading every day, can be overwhelming when in fact cash is a position and to be sidelined for 24-48 hours is not a bad thing to let the markets re-set.\r\n\r\nIt is hard at times because there are other factors hanging over the markets such as NORTH KOREA, the TRUMP TAX PLAN and BREXIT the re-setting takes a little longer as positions are skewed. Also with last week being both a month and quarter end it was quite a cocktail.\r\n\r\nWith some degree of PATIENCE having been applied I am now ready for the final quarter of 2017.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:\r\n\r\n</strong><u>2.1: LOOKING BACK AT LAST WEEK’S NEWS.</u></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIn no special order, here is what floated my boat last week.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>EUR</u></strong><u>: THE GERMAN NATIONAL ELECTIONS and THE CATALONIA ISSUE.</u>\r\n\r\nHoly shit. The press never saw that coming. The “Far Right” now have a good number of seats in parliament and poor old Angela Merkel has her work cut out forming a government excluding the “AfD” party.\r\nAmericans point fingers at TRUMP with 48% or whatever it was of the turnout and he occupies the White House. Merkel only received 32% of the popular vote. I am finding it very hard in the west to recall the last government that was in power based upon being more than 50% of the popular vote.\r\n\r\nAnyways back to the point…\r\n\r\nThe election outcome leaves a bitter taste in the mouth of many “jotter blotters” in Brussels as their gravy train of expenses, potted plants, Chateauneuf-du-Pape on Friday’s and lavish pensions may be coming to an end as there are pledges to manage costs… yeah right, my arse!!\r\n\r\nOn that point, I read with interest but absolutely ZERO SURPRISE that EU BREXIT negotiator Michel Barnier, so far has racked up travel expenses to the tune of €47,417.60 since October 1st, 2016. This will be a drop in the ocean when all is said and done. The amount of €€€€ wasted in the EUROPEAN UNION is massive. This bill no matter what it ends up being when added to all the other BREXIT BILLS created will be swept under the carpet as the EU will say it was covered by the UK in their divorce fees. It will be €millions.\r\n\r\nThese; pen pushing, jotter blotters in Brussels know how to spend money… it’s all billable.\r\n\r\nBack to the EUR…\r\n\r\nThe single currency was kicked back from its breakout move by the FOMC the previous week and just as it was starting to breathe again the German Election result kicked it hard in the samosas and from my perspective it looks constructive to re-test lower support levels moving forward.\r\n\r\nAt the time of writing this blog, I freely admit to being a little confused. Is the Catalan vote on or off?\r\n\r\nThe independence vote is creating a constitutional crisis with government in Madrid saying its illegal. The 8 million people or thereabouts who live in North Eastern Spain have wanted independence for some time…in fact quite some time. Courts have already brandished the vote illegal should it go ahead. The government has seized ballot papers and locked polling booths. It’s all very unclear to me what is happening.\r\n\r\nFrom a currency perspective, obviously, the Catalan vote / issue has the potential to be very EUR negative.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>CAD</u></strong><u>: STEPHEN POLOZ SPEECH IN ST. JOHNS.</u>\r\n\r\nWTF.\r\n\r\nI was NOT alone being wrong footed on this speech. Hindsight is a beautiful thing.\r\n\r\nThe previous rate hikes got so much bang for their buck with a movement of about $0.15cents for a combined increase of 0.50%, the BOC is probably on PROZAC worried about the markets getting carried away with another hike on the cards.\r\n\r\nPoloz reeled everyone back in. “No predetermined path for rates” that\'s a great line. Bottom line, I still see the data from Canada being good and therefore it is inevitable that they will raise rates again this year.\r\n\r\nDare I mention my conspiracy theory once again? I reckon they all go (FED, BOE, ECB and BOC) on the same day. This would have the effect of stopping mad swings day after day in December as Central Banks adjust their policies.\r\n\r\nThen again, from a trading perspective its better if they go one at a time. If you want to trade each event separately there is a choice and a better opportunity to make $$$ as you would be better focused.\r\n\r\nAnyway…\r\n\r\nI had to adjust trades and take losses on the back of the Poloz speech. I am now back and ready to face the BOC and Poloz head on!!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>NZD: RBNZ RATE STATEMENT, CASH RATE and THE GENERAL ELECTION</u>.\r\n\r\nIt’s another WTF!\r\n\r\nI am going to show my age here and some of you may need to google this but Grant “aka Frank” Spencer temporary Governor of the RBNZ, now in charge of the keys to Wheeler’s drinks cabinet for the chaps, announced that New Zealand interest rates would remain accommodative for an extended period of time.\r\n\r\nI expected the Kiwi to drop faster than a lead balloon. I was ready, NZD/USD, EUR/NZD, GBP/NZD and AUD/NZD on the news not really much happened at all. Not really a flicker… bugger.\r\n\r\nThe Election is still taking its toll. Another weak coalition government needs to be formed. This will take some time by all accounts. PATIENCE with the NZD will be required it will flip-flop around in my opinion between 0.7150 to 0.7250 until we get a resolution.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP</u></strong><u>: CARNEY’S SPEECHES, CURRENT ACCOUNT DATA.</u>\r\n\r\nThere is nothing much new that I can add to what I have said before about Mark Carney.\r\n\r\nHe has given poor forward guidance over the years since arriving from the BOC replacing Merve “The Swerve” King as BOE Governor. He is a flip flopper, which, in general terms creates market instability the one core part of his job description he is employed to avoid.\r\n\r\nAt times, under the immense pressure of the job (and who would want it!), acts like a modern-day Pontius Pilate. It would not surprise me at a future BOE press conference or Parliamentary Committee hearing if we saw him behind his desk or podium with a basin of water and a hand towel.\r\n\r\nI think Carney has to go through with a one and done rate hike in the UK before the end of 2017. This of course does NOT mean he will despite all the rhetoric around the last interest rate statement and the 3.0% inflation level in the UK.\r\n\r\nCarney has the problem, Kuroda (BOJ), Draghi (ECB) and Janet Yellen at the Fed wished they had… inflation. Carney is caught between the devil and deep blue sea. The accountants (jotter blotters) have squeezed his balls so tight he has bent the knee and yielded to a potential / probable rate hike.\r\n\r\nHis latest speeches have taken the usual path: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>The BOE is not the savior of BREXIT.</li>\r\n 	<li>Worried about reckless lending as inflation bites and wages lag.</li>\r\n 	<li>Household debt is concerning, “short term damage… next 2-3 years!”</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nThe focus by many twitter feeds and analysts last Friday was based on the UK GDP data.  From my perspective given BREXIT and its potential effects on the City of London in particular, the UK Current Account data was more important. Although 90 days backward looking, it highlights the currency demand, income flows, values of imports and exports and basic banking transfers over the previous 90 days.\r\n\r\nWhy is it important to me?\r\n\r\nWith the banking industry and its supporting networks undergoing moves away from the UK as the BREXIT timetable moves forward, the flows will start to dry up causing an imbalance that the BOE must react to.\r\n\r\nThis quarter the forecasted number was:\r\n\r\nMinus £15.8 Billion the actual number was Minus £23.2 Billion.\r\n\r\nI believe a trend of misses will not start to form as banks and related institutions start the shift to mainland Europe and Ireland.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD</u></strong><u>: JANET YELLEN in or OUT? &amp; HER COMMENTS ABOUT INFLATION.</u>\r\n\r\nThis story will develop over the weekend but as we all know Janet Yellen’s tenure as FED CHAIR ends in February 2018. The debate over whether she stays on or ends had fueled much speculation over recent weeks and months.\r\n\r\nLast Friday it was announced or probably leaked that THE DONALD and his Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin interviewed former FED governor Kevin Warsh about replacing Yellen.\r\n\r\nWTF…\r\n\r\nThis follows on the back of her comments she disclosed last Tuesday during her speech to the National association for Business Economics. Yellen admitted that she doesn’t understand inflation, control of which is the FED’s number one responsibility. Apparently, all the FED’s working models on inflation are wrong.\r\n\r\nFFS…\r\n\r\nWhy didn’t she just resign on the spot?\r\n\r\nThis sort of thing beggar’s belief.\r\n\r\nIs everything about the U.S. just loud voices, bullshit and total bollocks?\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2: LOOKING AHEAD TO THIS COMING WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n2.2.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/ECON-DATE-01102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10106\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/ECON-DATE-01102017-1024x805.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"805\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n2.2.2: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-01102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10107\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-01102017-1024x848.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"848\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.3: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:\r\n\r\n</u>Not a lot this week to choose from. Here are my picks of the upcoming week.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP:  </u></strong><u>MANUFACTURING, CONSTRUCTION &amp; SERVICES PMI’s.</u>\r\n\r\nYikes; that was quick month!\r\n\r\nHere we go again with the PMI data. Last month all three were above the 50 line which signifies expansion. The one in danger of slipping below 50 is Construction PMI which last time around stood at 51.1. Should this fall below the dreaded 50 it will in my opinion place the proposed BOE interest rate hike due probably in November on hold.\r\n\r\n3% inflation or not I just cannot see the BOE raising rates in the environment that a sub 50 number would create.\r\n\r\nI am expecting a miss from Construction and Manufacturing PMI’s but a beat from the Services PMi.\r\n\r\nThe UK is going through a change and from my buddies on the ground (not literally), it is not being discussed at high level and to a large extent being swept under the carpet.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>AUD</u></strong><u>: RBA RATE STATEMENT, RETAIL SALES &amp; TRADE BALANCE.</u>\r\n\r\nIt is a big week for the AUD it rejected hard from 0.8000, mostly on the back of comments from RBA Governor Philip Lowe.\r\n\r\nDr. Lowe basically said that the Central Bank is not rushing to change direction of monetary policy just because a lot of other Central Banks are choosing to do so. Therefore, I cannot see the Cash Rate being moved from 1.5%.\r\n\r\nRetail Sales last month came in flat at 0.0%. Anything better which I assume we should see this time around will be a beat and be AUD positive.\r\n\r\nTrade Balance is sticky. This number in my opinion could go either way and the data will tell us whether the AUD spikes or continues to drift lower.\r\n\r\nAll three announcements are market movers. Trade Balance and Retail Sales are released at the same time Wednesday just to ensure we have ADVIL on hand!!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>CAD</u></strong><u>: TRADE BALANCE &amp; EMPLOYMENT DATA.</u>\r\n\r\nSo, after last week’s GDP was a bit soft, I am looking for strong data to support my CORE CAD TRADE POSITION, which for now looks sick. Patience is being applied in huge volume.\r\n\r\nLast month the jobs data disappointed because of the mix between part and full-time positions. I am thinking that it may be more of the same as we start the run up to Thanksgiving and Christmas festivities. Although, I must point out after what is deemed a poor or mediocre number one month from Canada the next month is usually a blowout.\r\n\r\nThis is truly what makes trading currencies such fun!!\r\n\r\nThe Trade Balance number is a sticky one. Last time being CAD$ -3.0 Billion. Trying to obtain very recent up to date data to give me a hint here has proved virtually impossible. More ADVIL required for this one!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD</u></strong><u>: ADP, NON-FARM PAYROLLS and AVERAGE HOURLIES</u>.\r\n\r\nFirst off.\r\n\r\nDo NOT get suckered in to trades based off the ADP numbers when planning your NFP day. The correlation between ADP data on a Wednesday from the private sector and the government data on a Friday has not seen any correlation of late. So, if you want to do a Robert Palmer, “Looking for Clues” there will probably be feck all in expecting NFP to follow ADP numbers.\r\n\r\nI must say this…\r\n\r\nWho give a f**k anyways? The Fed are raising rates come hell or high water, I for one will probably NOT trade NFP, it is a lottery and as an indicator for the FED forget it… that decision has been made. Plus, it looks like Yellen is NOT going to be around to pick up any pieces anyhow.\r\n\r\nI do not think NFP has any real importance this week. I could be proved wrong but I really do feel that the FED are raising no matter what.\r\n\r\nAs for the actual numbers; ADP last month was 237,000 and NFP was 156,000. If NFP keeps roughly to the last 12 month monthly average, the markets should not go too wild.\r\n\r\nThere should be an acceptance in the markets about the perceived FED policy… what am I saying!!\r\n\r\nObviously, the average hourly rate needs to remain positive and a jump of 0.1% would keep the markets happy.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is my own subscriber based Forex support service that offers subscribers my suggested trade set-ups and market commentaries.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting the HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE tab.\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT 2017 PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nFINAL WEEK THIS MONTH:         +302 pips\r\nMONTH OF SEPTEMBER 2017:  +1,175 net pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE 2017:                    +7,506 net pips\r\n\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs on my website  <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS ONLY:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>4.1: PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:</u><u>\r\n</u>(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)<u>\r\n\r\n4.1.1: TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>4.1.2: SENTIMENT,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.1.3: USD - SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS: </u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.1.4: USD – TRADING CHARTS and COMMENTARIES: </u><u>\r\n\r\n</u><u>4.1.5: EXISTING CORE TRADES (PLANS &amp; STRATEGIES):</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.1.6: CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.1.7: FX BROKER NEWS with their MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS &amp; IDEAS:</strong><strong> </strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5.1: WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you have read in this blog and would like the chance to win a FREE SUBSCRIPTION valued at CAD$150.00, all you should do is subscribe to my FREE NEWSLETTER (this blog), by adding your email address on my welcome page just below my cube logo at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\n<u>5.2: PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTIONS:</u>\r\n\r\nShould you want to go a stage further and subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE. This can be done on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the Tab SUBSCRIBE HERE.\r\n\r\nSubscribing to the PREMIUM SERVICE is not just about receiving a larger “DRIVE THRU” blog packed with more trading supporting information, my thoughts and ideas. There is much more to a subscription that those things. Check it all out under the tab HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nFrom time to time I offer subscription promotions. These can be viewed under the tab FX PROMOTIONS at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\n<strong>NOTE: There is a promotion in place right now and it expires Sunday 1st October at 5PM EST!</strong>\r\n\r\nI show below an interesting excel spreadsheet based around my PREMIUM SERVICE monthly subscription option of CAD$150.00 per month. I hope that you find this interesting.\r\n\r\n<u><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/CAD150-SUBSCRIPTION-240917.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10037\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/CAD150-SUBSCRIPTION-240917-912x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"912\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n5.3: THE FINISHING LINE:</u>\r\n\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #253 FREE NEWSLETTER\r\n1st October 2017\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','FED ADMITS IT HAS NO CLUE','','inherit','closed','closed','','10147-revision-v1','','','2017-09-30 08:00:35','2017-09-30 13:00:35','',10147,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/10147-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(10150,1,'2017-09-30 08:13:58','2017-09-30 13:13:58','&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nMy PREMIUM SERVICE AUTUMN/FALL PROMOTION ends this weekend, on Sunday 1st October at the market open 5PM EST (New York time) to be precise. So, if you want to get on board and get some $$$ in line for Christmas and beyond go to my website and subscribe. <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nThe outstanding items from last week remain outstanding items this week.\r\n\r\nThey are…\r\n\r\nI still need to complete my PREMIUM SERVICE video.\r\n\r\nMy EA’s (Expert Advisors - Algorithms) that I mentioned last week are STILL outstanding.\r\n\r\nNot that I need to offer up excuses, but I started cleaning my computer files. I thought that I had all three Macs linked, but… apparently not. My trading computer that drives my screens is purpose built but runs on MSFT software for the brokers and so getting this stuff across and into a library was a little tedious. Those of you who I have interacted with know that I am a trader and NOT a computer whizz kid or geek.\r\n\r\nI recently re-connected with my old neighbour in Dublin, who can run rings around the best of folk on machines, software limits, apps etc. At the best of times, it’s another bloody language to me.\r\n\r\nFrom last week, the word of the week was….\r\n\r\n<strong>“PATIENCE”</strong>\r\n\r\nFrom my perspective I banked $$$ and pips but what a struggle. I am carrying CORE POSITIONS now with negative positions and I am patiently waiting for the markets to re-set.\r\n\r\nI will cover the following in more detail later but the GERMAN and NEW ZEALAND ELECTION RESULTS, STEPHEN POLOZ (BOC), JANET YELLEN and “FLIP-FLOPPER” MARK CARNEY to name but a few were all screwing with me.\r\n\r\nI was basically badly positioned for the events but looking down from a MACRO level with my FUNDAMENTALS in place, I feel I am correctly pointed.\r\n\r\nI was trying to be patient and get myself re-positioned to be ready to take advantage moving forward. I am getting there bit by bit with my CORE POSITIONS adjustments have been made and additions are now in place.\r\n\r\nI think back in 2013 I wrote an entire section in the blog about trading with patience is one of the hardest things to do. The need to believe that you must be trading every day, can be overwhelming when in fact cash is a position and to be sidelined for 24-48 hours is not a bad thing to let the markets re-set.\r\n\r\nIt is hard at times because there are other factors hanging over the markets such as NORTH KOREA, the TRUMP TAX PLAN and BREXIT the re-setting takes a little longer as positions are skewed. Also with last week being both a month and quarter end it was quite a cocktail.\r\n\r\nWith some degree of PATIENCE having been applied I am now ready for the final quarter of 2017.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>2.1: LOOKING BACK AT LAST WEEK’S NEWS.</u>\r\n\r\nIn no special order, here is what floated my boat last week.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>EUR</u></strong><u>: THE GERMAN NATIONAL ELECTIONS and THE CATALONIA ISSUE.</u>\r\n\r\nHoly shit. The press never saw that coming. The “Far Right” now have a good number of seats in parliament and poor old Angela Merkel has her work cut out forming a government excluding the “AfD” party.\r\nAmericans point fingers at TRUMP with 48% or whatever it was of the turnout and he occupies the White House. Merkel only received 32% of the popular vote. I am finding it very hard in the west to recall the last government that was in power based upon being more than 50% of the popular vote.\r\n\r\nAnyways back to the point…\r\n\r\nThe election outcome leaves a bitter taste in the mouth of many “jotter blotters” in Brussels as their gravy train of expenses, potted plants, Chateauneuf-du-Pape on Friday’s and lavish pensions may be coming to an end as there are pledges to manage costs… yeah right, my arse!!\r\n\r\nOn that point, I read with interest but absolutely ZERO SURPRISE that EU BREXIT negotiator Michel Barnier, so far has racked up travel expenses to the tune of €47,417.60 since October 1st, 2016. This will be a drop in the ocean when all is said and done. The amount of €€€€ wasted in the EUROPEAN UNION is massive. This bill no matter what it ends up being when added to all the other BREXIT BILLS created will be swept under the carpet as the EU will say it was covered by the UK in their divorce fees. It will be €millions.\r\n\r\nThese; pen pushing, jotter blotters in Brussels know how to spend money… it’s all billable.\r\n\r\nBack to the EUR…\r\n\r\nThe single currency was kicked back from its breakout move by the FOMC the previous week and just as it was starting to breathe again the German Election result kicked it hard in the samosas and from my perspective it looks constructive to re-test lower support levels moving forward.\r\n\r\nAt the time of writing this blog, I freely admit to being a little confused. Is the Catalan vote on or off?\r\n\r\nThe independence vote is creating a constitutional crisis with government in Madrid saying its illegal. The 8 million people or thereabouts who live in North Eastern Spain have wanted independence for some time…in fact quite some time. Courts have already brandished the vote illegal should it go ahead. The government has seized ballot papers and locked polling booths. It’s all very unclear to me what is happening.\r\n\r\nFrom a currency perspective, obviously, the Catalan vote / issue has the potential to be very EUR negative.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>CAD</u></strong><u>: STEPHEN POLOZ SPEECH IN ST. JOHNS.</u>\r\n\r\nWTF.\r\n\r\nI was NOT alone being wrong footed on this speech. Hindsight is a beautiful thing.\r\n\r\nThe previous rate hikes got so much bang for their buck with a movement of about $0.15cents for a combined increase of 0.50%, the BOC is probably on PROZAC worried about the markets getting carried away with another hike on the cards.\r\n\r\nPoloz reeled everyone back in. “No predetermined path for rates” that\'s a great line. Bottom line, I still see the data from Canada being good and therefore it is inevitable that they will raise rates again this year.\r\n\r\nDare I mention my conspiracy theory once again? I reckon they all go (FED, BOE, ECB and BOC) on the same day. This would have the effect of stopping mad swings day after day in December as Central Banks adjust their policies.\r\n\r\nThen again, from a trading perspective its better if they go one at a time. If you want to trade each event separately there is a choice and a better opportunity to make $$$ as you would be better focused.\r\n\r\nAnyway…\r\n\r\nI had to adjust trades and take losses on the back of the Poloz speech. I am now back and ready to face the BOC and Poloz head on!!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>NZD: RBNZ RATE STATEMENT, CASH RATE and THE GENERAL ELECTION</u>.\r\n\r\nIt’s another WTF!\r\n\r\nI am going to show my age here and some of you may need to google this but Grant “aka Frank” Spencer temporary Governor of the RBNZ, now in charge of the keys to Wheeler’s drinks cabinet for the chaps, announced that New Zealand interest rates would remain accommodative for an extended period of time.\r\n\r\nI expected the Kiwi to drop faster than a lead balloon. I was ready, NZD/USD, EUR/NZD, GBP/NZD and AUD/NZD on the news not really much happened at all. Not really a flicker… bugger.\r\n\r\nThe Election is still taking its toll. Another weak coalition government needs to be formed. This will take some time by all accounts. PATIENCE with the NZD will be required it will flip-flop around in my opinion between 0.7150 to 0.7250 until we get a resolution.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP</u></strong><u>: CARNEY’S SPEECHES, CURRENT ACCOUNT DATA.</u>\r\n\r\nThere is nothing much new that I can add to what I have said before about Mark Carney.\r\n\r\nHe has given poor forward guidance over the years since arriving from the BOC replacing Merve “The Swerve” King as BOE Governor. He is a flip flopper, which, in general terms creates market instability the one core part of his job description he is employed to avoid.\r\n\r\nAt times, under the immense pressure of the job (and who would want it!), acts like a modern-day Pontius Pilate. It would not surprise me at a future BOE press conference or Parliamentary Committee hearing if we saw him behind his desk or podium with a basin of water and a hand towel.\r\n\r\nI think Carney has to go through with a one and done rate hike in the UK before the end of 2017. This of course does NOT mean he will despite all the rhetoric around the last interest rate statement and the 3.0% inflation level in the UK.\r\n\r\nCarney has the problem, Kuroda (BOJ), Draghi (ECB) and Janet Yellen at the Fed wished they had… inflation. Carney is caught between the devil and deep blue sea. The accountants (jotter blotters) have squeezed his balls so tight he has bent the knee and yielded to a potential / probable rate hike.\r\n\r\nHis latest speeches have taken the usual path: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>The BOE is not the savior of BREXIT.</li>\r\n 	<li>Worried about reckless lending as inflation bites and wages lag.</li>\r\n 	<li>Household debt is concerning, “short term damage… next 2-3 years!”</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nThe focus by many twitter feeds and analysts last Friday was based on the UK GDP data.  From my perspective given BREXIT and its potential effects on the City of London in particular, the UK Current Account data was more important. Although 90 days backward looking, it highlights the currency demand, income flows, values of imports and exports and basic banking transfers over the previous 90 days.\r\n\r\nWhy is it important to me?\r\n\r\nWith the banking industry and its supporting networks undergoing moves away from the UK as the BREXIT timetable moves forward, the flows will start to dry up causing an imbalance that the BOE must react to.\r\n\r\nThis quarter the forecasted number was:\r\n\r\nMinus £15.8 Billion the actual number was Minus £23.2 Billion.\r\n\r\nI believe a trend of misses will not start to form as banks and related institutions start the shift to mainland Europe and Ireland.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD</u></strong><u>: JANET YELLEN in or OUT? &amp; HER COMMENTS ABOUT INFLATION.</u>\r\n\r\nThis story will develop over the weekend but as we all know Janet Yellen’s tenure as FED CHAIR ends in February 2018. The debate over whether she stays on or ends had fueled much speculation over recent weeks and months.\r\n\r\nLast Friday it was announced or probably leaked that THE DONALD and his Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin interviewed former FED governor Kevin Warsh about replacing Yellen.\r\n\r\nWTF…\r\n\r\nThis follows on the back of her comments she disclosed last Tuesday during her speech to the National association for Business Economics. Yellen admitted that she doesn’t understand inflation, control of which is the FED’s number one responsibility. Apparently, all the FED’s working models on inflation are wrong.\r\n\r\nFFS…\r\n\r\nWhy didn’t she just resign on the spot?\r\n\r\nThis sort of thing beggar’s belief.\r\n\r\nIs everything about the U.S. just loud voices, bullshit and total bollocks?\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2: LOOKING AHEAD TO THIS COMING WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n2.2.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/ECON-DATE-01102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10106\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/ECON-DATE-01102017-1024x805.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"805\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n2.2.2: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-01102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10107\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-01102017-1024x848.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"848\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.3: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:</u>\r\n\r\nNot a lot this week to choose from. Here are my picks of the upcoming week.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP:  </u></strong><u>MANUFACTURING, CONSTRUCTION &amp; SERVICES PMI’s.</u>\r\n\r\nYikes; that was quick month!\r\n\r\nHere we go again with the PMI data. Last month all three were above the 50 line which signifies expansion. The one in danger of slipping below 50 is Construction PMI which last time around stood at 51.1. Should this fall below the dreaded 50 it will in my opinion place the proposed BOE interest rate hike due probably in November on hold.\r\n\r\n3% inflation or not I just cannot see the BOE raising rates in the environment that a sub 50 number would create.\r\n\r\nI am expecting a miss from Construction and Manufacturing PMI’s but a beat from the Services PMi.\r\n\r\nThe UK is going through a change and from my buddies on the ground (not literally), it is not being discussed at high level and to a large extent being swept under the carpet.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>AUD</u></strong><u>: RBA RATE STATEMENT, RETAIL SALES &amp; TRADE BALANCE.</u>\r\n\r\nIt is a big week for the AUD it rejected hard from 0.8000, mostly on the back of comments from RBA Governor Philip Lowe.\r\n\r\nDr. Lowe basically said that the Central Bank is not rushing to change direction of monetary policy just because a lot of other Central Banks are choosing to do so. Therefore, I cannot see the Cash Rate being moved from 1.5%.\r\n\r\nRetail Sales last month came in flat at 0.0%. Anything better which I assume we should see this time around will be a beat and be AUD positive.\r\n\r\nTrade Balance is sticky. This number in my opinion could go either way and the data will tell us whether the AUD spikes or continues to drift lower.\r\n\r\nAll three announcements are market movers. Trade Balance and Retail Sales are released at the same time Wednesday just to ensure we have ADVIL on hand!!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>CAD</u></strong><u>: TRADE BALANCE &amp; EMPLOYMENT DATA.</u>\r\n\r\nSo, after last week’s GDP was a bit soft, I am looking for strong data to support my CORE CAD TRADE POSITION, which for now looks sick. Patience is being applied in huge volume.\r\n\r\nLast month the jobs data disappointed because of the mix between part and full-time positions. I am thinking that it may be more of the same as we start the run up to Thanksgiving and Christmas festivities. Although, I must point out after what is deemed a poor or mediocre number one month from Canada the next month is usually a blowout.\r\n\r\nThis is truly what makes trading currencies such fun!!\r\n\r\nThe Trade Balance number is a sticky one. Last time being CAD$ -3.0 Billion. Trying to obtain very recent up to date data to give me a hint here has proved virtually impossible. More ADVIL required for this one!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD</u></strong><u>: ADP, NON-FARM PAYROLLS and AVERAGE HOURLIES</u>.\r\n\r\nFirst off.\r\n\r\nDo NOT get suckered in to trades based off the ADP numbers when planning your NFP day. The correlation between ADP data on a Wednesday from the private sector and the government data on a Friday has not seen any correlation of late. So, if you want to do a Robert Palmer, “Looking for Clues” there will probably be feck all in expecting NFP to follow ADP numbers.\r\n\r\nI must say this…\r\n\r\nWho give a f**k anyways? The Fed are raising rates come hell or high water, I for one will probably NOT trade NFP, it is a lottery and as an indicator for the FED forget it… that decision has been made. Plus, it looks like Yellen is NOT going to be around to pick up any pieces anyhow.\r\n\r\nI do not think NFP has any real importance this week. I could be proved wrong but I really do feel that the FED are raising no matter what.\r\n\r\nAs for the actual numbers; ADP last month was 237,000 and NFP was 156,000. If NFP keeps roughly to the last 12 month monthly average, the markets should not go too wild.\r\n\r\nThere should be an acceptance in the markets about the perceived FED policy… what am I saying!!\r\n\r\nObviously, the average hourly rate needs to remain positive and a jump of 0.1% would keep the markets happy.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is my own subscriber based Forex support service that offers subscribers my suggested trade set-ups and market commentaries.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting the HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE tab.\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT 2017 PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nFINAL WEEK THIS MONTH:         +302 pips\r\nMONTH OF SEPTEMBER 2017:  +1,175 net pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE 2017:                    +7,506 net pips\r\n\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs on my website  <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS ONLY:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>4.1: PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:</u><u>\r\n</u>(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)<u></u>\r\n\r\n4.1.1: TRADING REVIEW:\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>4.1.2: SENTIMENT,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.1.3: USD - SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS: </u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.1.4: USD – TRADING CHARTS and COMMENTARIES: </u><u></u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.1.5: EXISTING CORE TRADES (PLANS &amp; STRATEGIES):</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.1.6: CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.1.7: FX BROKER NEWS with their MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS &amp; IDEAS:</strong><strong> </strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5.1: WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you have read in this blog and would like the chance to win a FREE SUBSCRIPTION valued at CAD$150.00, all you should do is subscribe to my FREE NEWSLETTER (this blog), by adding your email address on my welcome page just below my cube logo at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\n<u>5.2: PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTIONS:</u>\r\n\r\nShould you want to go a stage further and subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE. This can be done on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the Tab SUBSCRIBE HERE.\r\n\r\nSubscribing to the PREMIUM SERVICE is not just about receiving a larger “DRIVE THRU” blog packed with more trading supporting information, my thoughts and ideas. There is much more to a subscription that those things. Check it all out under the tab HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nFrom time to time I offer subscription promotions. These can be viewed under the tab FX PROMOTIONS at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\n<strong>NOTE: There is a promotion in place right now and it expires Sunday 1st October at 5PM EST!</strong>\r\n\r\nI show below an interesting excel spreadsheet based around my PREMIUM SERVICE monthly subscription option of CAD$150.00 per month. I hope that you find this interesting.\r\n\r\n<u><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/CAD150-SUBSCRIPTION-240917.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10037\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/CAD150-SUBSCRIPTION-240917-912x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"912\" height=\"1024\" /></a></u>\r\n\r\n5.3: THE FINISHING LINE:\r\n\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #253 FREE NEWSLETTER\r\n1st October 2017\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','FED ADMITS IT HAS NO CLUE','','inherit','closed','closed','','10147-revision-v1','','','2017-09-30 08:13:58','2017-09-30 13:13:58','',10147,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/10147-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(10149,1,'2017-09-30 08:02:07','2017-09-30 13:02:07','&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nMy PREMIUM SERVICE AUTUMN/FALL PROMOTION ends this weekend, on Sunday 1st October at the market open 5PM EST (New York time) to be precise. So, if you want to get on board and get some $$$ in line for Christmas and beyond go to my website and subscribe. <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nThe outstanding items from last week remain outstanding items this week.\r\n\r\nThey are…\r\n\r\nI still need to complete my PREMIUM SERVICE video.\r\n\r\nMy EA’s (Expert Advisors - Algorithms) that I mentioned last week are STILL outstanding.\r\n\r\nNot that I need to offer up excuses, but I started cleaning my computer files. I thought that I had all three Macs linked, but… apparently not. My trading computer that drives my screens is purpose built but runs on MSFT software for the brokers and so getting this stuff across and into a library was a little tedious. Those of you who I have interacted with know that I am a trader and NOT a computer whizz kid or geek.\r\n\r\nI recently re-connected with my old neighbour in Dublin, who can run rings around the best of folk on machines, software limits, apps etc. At the best of times, it’s another bloody language to me.\r\n\r\nFrom last week, the word of the week was….\r\n\r\n<strong>“PATIENCE”</strong>\r\n\r\nFrom my perspective I banked $$$ and pips but what a struggle. I am carrying CORE POSITIONS now with negative positions and I am patiently waiting for the markets to re-set.\r\n\r\nI will cover the following in more detail later but the GERMAN and NEW ZEALAND ELECTION RESULTS, STEPHEN POLOZ (BOC), JANET YELLEN and “FLIP-FLOPPER” MARK CARNEY to name but a few were all screwing with me.\r\n\r\nI was basically badly positioned for the events but looking down from a MACRO level with my FUNDAMENTALS in place, I feel I am correctly pointed.\r\n\r\nI was trying to be patient and get myself re-positioned to be ready to take advantage moving forward. I am getting there bit by bit with my CORE POSITIONS adjustments have been made and additions are now in place.\r\n\r\nI think back in 2013 I wrote an entire section in the blog about trading with patience is one of the hardest things to do. The need to believe that you must be trading every day, can be overwhelming when in fact cash is a position and to be sidelined for 24-48 hours is not a bad thing to let the markets re-set.\r\n\r\nIt is hard at times because there are other factors hanging over the markets such as NORTH KOREA, the TRUMP TAX PLAN and BREXIT the re-setting takes a little longer as positions are skewed. Also with last week being both a month and quarter end it was quite a cocktail.\r\n\r\nWith some degree of PATIENCE having been applied I am now ready for the final quarter of 2017.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong></strong><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>2.1: LOOKING BACK AT LAST WEEK’S NEWS.</u>\r\n\r\nIn no special order, here is what floated my boat last week.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>EUR</u></strong><u>: THE GERMAN NATIONAL ELECTIONS and THE CATALONIA ISSUE.</u>\r\n\r\nHoly shit. The press never saw that coming. The “Far Right” now have a good number of seats in parliament and poor old Angela Merkel has her work cut out forming a government excluding the “AfD” party.\r\nAmericans point fingers at TRUMP with 48% or whatever it was of the turnout and he occupies the White House. Merkel only received 32% of the popular vote. I am finding it very hard in the west to recall the last government that was in power based upon being more than 50% of the popular vote.\r\n\r\nAnyways back to the point…\r\n\r\nThe election outcome leaves a bitter taste in the mouth of many “jotter blotters” in Brussels as their gravy train of expenses, potted plants, Chateauneuf-du-Pape on Friday’s and lavish pensions may be coming to an end as there are pledges to manage costs… yeah right, my arse!!\r\n\r\nOn that point, I read with interest but absolutely ZERO SURPRISE that EU BREXIT negotiator Michel Barnier, so far has racked up travel expenses to the tune of €47,417.60 since October 1st, 2016. This will be a drop in the ocean when all is said and done. The amount of €€€€ wasted in the EUROPEAN UNION is massive. This bill no matter what it ends up being when added to all the other BREXIT BILLS created will be swept under the carpet as the EU will say it was covered by the UK in their divorce fees. It will be €millions.\r\n\r\nThese; pen pushing, jotter blotters in Brussels know how to spend money… it’s all billable.\r\n\r\nBack to the EUR…\r\n\r\nThe single currency was kicked back from its breakout move by the FOMC the previous week and just as it was starting to breathe again the German Election result kicked it hard in the samosas and from my perspective it looks constructive to re-test lower support levels moving forward.\r\n\r\nAt the time of writing this blog, I freely admit to being a little confused. Is the Catalan vote on or off?\r\n\r\nThe independence vote is creating a constitutional crisis with government in Madrid saying its illegal. The 8 million people or thereabouts who live in North Eastern Spain have wanted independence for some time…in fact quite some time. Courts have already brandished the vote illegal should it go ahead. The government has seized ballot papers and locked polling booths. It’s all very unclear to me what is happening.\r\n\r\nFrom a currency perspective, obviously, the Catalan vote / issue has the potential to be very EUR negative.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>CAD</u></strong><u>: STEPHEN POLOZ SPEECH IN ST. JOHNS.</u>\r\n\r\nWTF.\r\n\r\nI was NOT alone being wrong footed on this speech. Hindsight is a beautiful thing.\r\n\r\nThe previous rate hikes got so much bang for their buck with a movement of about $0.15cents for a combined increase of 0.50%, the BOC is probably on PROZAC worried about the markets getting carried away with another hike on the cards.\r\n\r\nPoloz reeled everyone back in. “No predetermined path for rates” that\'s a great line. Bottom line, I still see the data from Canada being good and therefore it is inevitable that they will raise rates again this year.\r\n\r\nDare I mention my conspiracy theory once again? I reckon they all go (FED, BOE, ECB and BOC) on the same day. This would have the effect of stopping mad swings day after day in December as Central Banks adjust their policies.\r\n\r\nThen again, from a trading perspective its better if they go one at a time. If you want to trade each event separately there is a choice and a better opportunity to make $$$ as you would be better focused.\r\n\r\nAnyway…\r\n\r\nI had to adjust trades and take losses on the back of the Poloz speech. I am now back and ready to face the BOC and Poloz head on!!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>NZD: RBNZ RATE STATEMENT, CASH RATE and THE GENERAL ELECTION</u>.\r\n\r\nIt’s another WTF!\r\n\r\nI am going to show my age here and some of you may need to google this but Grant “aka Frank” Spencer temporary Governor of the RBNZ, now in charge of the keys to Wheeler’s drinks cabinet for the chaps, announced that New Zealand interest rates would remain accommodative for an extended period of time.\r\n\r\nI expected the Kiwi to drop faster than a lead balloon. I was ready, NZD/USD, EUR/NZD, GBP/NZD and AUD/NZD on the news not really much happened at all. Not really a flicker… bugger.\r\n\r\nThe Election is still taking its toll. Another weak coalition government needs to be formed. This will take some time by all accounts. PATIENCE with the NZD will be required it will flip-flop around in my opinion between 0.7150 to 0.7250 until we get a resolution.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP</u></strong><u>: CARNEY’S SPEECHES, CURRENT ACCOUNT DATA.</u>\r\n\r\nThere is nothing much new that I can add to what I have said before about Mark Carney.\r\n\r\nHe has given poor forward guidance over the years since arriving from the BOC replacing Merve “The Swerve” King as BOE Governor. He is a flip flopper, which, in general terms creates market instability the one core part of his job description he is employed to avoid.\r\n\r\nAt times, under the immense pressure of the job (and who would want it!), acts like a modern-day Pontius Pilate. It would not surprise me at a future BOE press conference or Parliamentary Committee hearing if we saw him behind his desk or podium with a basin of water and a hand towel.\r\n\r\nI think Carney has to go through with a one and done rate hike in the UK before the end of 2017. This of course does NOT mean he will despite all the rhetoric around the last interest rate statement and the 3.0% inflation level in the UK.\r\n\r\nCarney has the problem, Kuroda (BOJ), Draghi (ECB) and Janet Yellen at the Fed wished they had… inflation. Carney is caught between the devil and deep blue sea. The accountants (jotter blotters) have squeezed his balls so tight he has bent the knee and yielded to a potential / probable rate hike.\r\n\r\nHis latest speeches have taken the usual path: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>The BOE is not the savior of BREXIT.</li>\r\n 	<li>Worried about reckless lending as inflation bites and wages lag.</li>\r\n 	<li>Household debt is concerning, “short term damage… next 2-3 years!”</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nThe focus by many twitter feeds and analysts last Friday was based on the UK GDP data.  From my perspective given BREXIT and its potential effects on the City of London in particular, the UK Current Account data was more important. Although 90 days backward looking, it highlights the currency demand, income flows, values of imports and exports and basic banking transfers over the previous 90 days.\r\n\r\nWhy is it important to me?\r\n\r\nWith the banking industry and its supporting networks undergoing moves away from the UK as the BREXIT timetable moves forward, the flows will start to dry up causing an imbalance that the BOE must react to.\r\n\r\nThis quarter the forecasted number was:\r\n\r\nMinus £15.8 Billion the actual number was Minus £23.2 Billion.\r\n\r\nI believe a trend of misses will not start to form as banks and related institutions start the shift to mainland Europe and Ireland.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD</u></strong><u>: JANET YELLEN in or OUT? &amp; HER COMMENTS ABOUT INFLATION.</u>\r\n\r\nThis story will develop over the weekend but as we all know Janet Yellen’s tenure as FED CHAIR ends in February 2018. The debate over whether she stays on or ends had fueled much speculation over recent weeks and months.\r\n\r\nLast Friday it was announced or probably leaked that THE DONALD and his Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin interviewed former FED governor Kevin Warsh about replacing Yellen.\r\n\r\nWTF…\r\n\r\nThis follows on the back of her comments she disclosed last Tuesday during her speech to the National association for Business Economics. Yellen admitted that she doesn’t understand inflation, control of which is the FED’s number one responsibility. Apparently, all the FED’s working models on inflation are wrong.\r\n\r\nFFS…\r\n\r\nWhy didn’t she just resign on the spot?\r\n\r\nThis sort of thing beggar’s belief.\r\n\r\nIs everything about the U.S. just loud voices, bullshit and total bollocks?\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2: LOOKING AHEAD TO THIS COMING WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n2.2.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/ECON-DATE-01102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10106\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/ECON-DATE-01102017-1024x805.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"805\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n2.2.2: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-01102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10107\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/TCHART-01102017-1024x848.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"848\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.3: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:</u>\r\n\r\nNot a lot this week to choose from. Here are my picks of the upcoming week.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP:  </u></strong><u>MANUFACTURING, CONSTRUCTION &amp; SERVICES PMI’s.</u>\r\n\r\nYikes; that was quick month!\r\n\r\nHere we go again with the PMI data. Last month all three were above the 50 line which signifies expansion. The one in danger of slipping below 50 is Construction PMI which last time around stood at 51.1. Should this fall below the dreaded 50 it will in my opinion place the proposed BOE interest rate hike due probably in November on hold.\r\n\r\n3% inflation or not I just cannot see the BOE raising rates in the environment that a sub 50 number would create.\r\n\r\nI am expecting a miss from Construction and Manufacturing PMI’s but a beat from the Services PMi.\r\n\r\nThe UK is going through a change and from my buddies on the ground (not literally), it is not being discussed at high level and to a large extent being swept under the carpet.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>AUD</u></strong><u>: RBA RATE STATEMENT, RETAIL SALES &amp; TRADE BALANCE.</u>\r\n\r\nIt is a big week for the AUD it rejected hard from 0.8000, mostly on the back of comments from RBA Governor Philip Lowe.\r\n\r\nDr. Lowe basically said that the Central Bank is not rushing to change direction of monetary policy just because a lot of other Central Banks are choosing to do so. Therefore, I cannot see the Cash Rate being moved from 1.5%.\r\n\r\nRetail Sales last month came in flat at 0.0%. Anything better which I assume we should see this time around will be a beat and be AUD positive.\r\n\r\nTrade Balance is sticky. This number in my opinion could go either way and the data will tell us whether the AUD spikes or continues to drift lower.\r\n\r\nAll three announcements are market movers. Trade Balance and Retail Sales are released at the same time Wednesday just to ensure we have ADVIL on hand!!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>CAD</u></strong><u>: TRADE BALANCE &amp; EMPLOYMENT DATA.</u>\r\n\r\nSo, after last week’s GDP was a bit soft, I am looking for strong data to support my CORE CAD TRADE POSITION, which for now looks sick. Patience is being applied in huge volume.\r\n\r\nLast month the jobs data disappointed because of the mix between part and full-time positions. I am thinking that it may be more of the same as we start the run up to Thanksgiving and Christmas festivities. Although, I must point out after what is deemed a poor or mediocre number one month from Canada the next month is usually a blowout.\r\n\r\nThis is truly what makes trading currencies such fun!!\r\n\r\nThe Trade Balance number is a sticky one. Last time being CAD$ -3.0 Billion. Trying to obtain very recent up to date data to give me a hint here has proved virtually impossible. More ADVIL required for this one!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD</u></strong><u>: ADP, NON-FARM PAYROLLS and AVERAGE HOURLIES</u>.\r\n\r\nFirst off.\r\n\r\nDo NOT get suckered in to trades based off the ADP numbers when planning your NFP day. The correlation between ADP data on a Wednesday from the private sector and the government data on a Friday has not seen any correlation of late. So, if you want to do a Robert Palmer, “Looking for Clues” there will probably be feck all in expecting NFP to follow ADP numbers.\r\n\r\nI must say this…\r\n\r\nWho give a f**k anyways? The Fed are raising rates come hell or high water, I for one will probably NOT trade NFP, it is a lottery and as an indicator for the FED forget it… that decision has been made. Plus, it looks like Yellen is NOT going to be around to pick up any pieces anyhow.\r\n\r\nI do not think NFP has any real importance this week. I could be proved wrong but I really do feel that the FED are raising no matter what.\r\n\r\nAs for the actual numbers; ADP last month was 237,000 and NFP was 156,000. If NFP keeps roughly to the last 12 month monthly average, the markets should not go too wild.\r\n\r\nThere should be an acceptance in the markets about the perceived FED policy… what am I saying!!\r\n\r\nObviously, the average hourly rate needs to remain positive and a jump of 0.1% would keep the markets happy.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is my own subscriber based Forex support service that offers subscribers my suggested trade set-ups and market commentaries.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting the HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE tab.\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT 2017 PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nFINAL WEEK THIS MONTH:         +302 pips\r\nMONTH OF SEPTEMBER 2017:  +1,175 net pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE 2017:                    +7,506 net pips\r\n\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs on my website  <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS ONLY:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>4.1: PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:</u><u>\r\n</u>(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)<u></u>\r\n\r\n4.1.1: TRADING REVIEW:\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>4.1.2: SENTIMENT,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.1.3: USD - SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS: </u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.1.4: USD – TRADING CHARTS and COMMENTARIES: </u><u></u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.1.5: EXISTING CORE TRADES (PLANS &amp; STRATEGIES):</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.1.6: CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.1.7: FX BROKER NEWS with their MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> CLOSING THOUGHTS &amp; IDEAS:</strong><strong> </strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5.1: WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you have read in this blog and would like the chance to win a FREE SUBSCRIPTION valued at CAD$150.00, all you should do is subscribe to my FREE NEWSLETTER (this blog), by adding your email address on my welcome page just below my cube logo at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\n<u>5.2: PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTIONS:</u>\r\n\r\nShould you want to go a stage further and subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE. This can be done on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the Tab SUBSCRIBE HERE.\r\n\r\nSubscribing to the PREMIUM SERVICE is not just about receiving a larger “DRIVE THRU” blog packed with more trading supporting information, my thoughts and ideas. There is much more to a subscription that those things. Check it all out under the tab HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nFrom time to time I offer subscription promotions. These can be viewed under the tab FX PROMOTIONS at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\n<strong>NOTE: There is a promotion in place right now and it expires Sunday 1st October at 5PM EST!</strong>\r\n\r\nI show below an interesting excel spreadsheet based around my PREMIUM SERVICE monthly subscription option of CAD$150.00 per month. I hope that you find this interesting.\r\n\r\n<u><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/CAD150-SUBSCRIPTION-240917.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10037\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/CAD150-SUBSCRIPTION-240917-912x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"912\" height=\"1024\" /></a></u>\r\n\r\n5.3: THE FINISHING LINE:\r\n\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #253 FREE NEWSLETTER\r\n1st October 2017\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','FED ADMITS IT HAS NO CLUE','','inherit','closed','closed','','10147-revision-v1','','','2017-09-30 08:02:07','2017-09-30 13:02:07','',10147,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/10147-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(10165,1,'2017-10-07 08:28:54','2017-10-07 13:28:54','','EURUSD D 08102017','','inherit','open','closed','','eurusd-d-08102017','','','2017-10-07 09:47:17','2017-10-07 14:47:17','',10171,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/EURUSD-D-08102017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(10166,1,'2017-10-07 08:28:57','2017-10-07 13:28:57','','GBPUSD D 08102017','','inherit','open','closed','','gbpusd-d-08102017','','','2017-10-07 09:47:26','2017-10-07 14:47:26','',10171,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/GBPUSD-D-08102017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(10167,1,'2017-10-07 08:29:00','2017-10-07 13:29:00','','NZDUSD D 08102017','','inherit','open','closed','','nzdusd-d-08102017','','','2017-10-07 09:47:46','2017-10-07 14:47:46','',10171,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/NZDUSD-D-08102017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(10168,1,'2017-10-07 08:29:04','2017-10-07 13:29:04','','USDCAD D 08102017','','inherit','open','closed','','usdcad-d-08102017','','','2017-10-07 09:47:54','2017-10-07 14:47:54','',10171,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCAD-D-08102017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(10169,1,'2017-10-07 08:29:07','2017-10-07 13:29:07','','USDCHF D 08102017','','inherit','open','closed','','usdchf-d-08102017','','','2017-10-07 09:48:02','2017-10-07 14:48:02','',10171,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCHF-D-08102017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(10170,1,'2017-10-07 08:29:11','2017-10-07 13:29:11','','USDJPY D 08102017','','inherit','open','closed','','usdjpy-d-08102017','','','2017-10-07 09:48:13','2017-10-07 14:48:13','',10171,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDJPY-D-08102017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(10171,1,'2017-10-07 09:53:44','2017-10-07 14:53:44','&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a lot to talk about last week, it is difficult to know exactly where to focus first.  However, that is for a little later in the blog.\r\n\r\nThe USD got its mojo back last week in some style. I am still struggling to find reasons to be long the USD. Of late data has started to be the right side of “mixed” to support a move higher in the DXY, the PMi data was good. In addition, the recent FED speak has been very HAWKISH in tone. See the chart below (The chart does contain a few additional thoughts).\r\n\r\nOverall though I think that maybe it\'s the fact that the market is starting to believe that regardless “of whatever”, Yellen is leaving her position as FED CHAIR next February with another rate hike in her purse?\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/DXY-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10154\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/DXY-08102017-1024x497.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"497\" /></a>\r\n\r\nHowever, this is my piece du résistance on the matter of recent USD (DXY) strength.\r\n\r\nI have a thought process along these lines….\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>The FED is raising rates come what may.</li>\r\n 	<li>The BOE has real dilemmas to face.Theresa May’s longevity as Prime Minister. She could be removed as Tory leader before I complete this blog!\r\n\r\nBREXIT negotiations are pretty much a shambles. The “No Deal” scenario is openly discussed more and more. If May is “kicked out” another timeline vacuum ensues and this results in additional pressure on the exit deadline.\r\n\r\nThe recent PMi data was basically poor…well really CRAP. The UK economy is declining and it will only get worse before it stands a chance of getting better.\r\n\r\n3% inflation or not. I just think it\'s a suicide mission on the UK economy to raise rates with so much uncertainty.</li>\r\n 	<li>The ECB governing council are basically crapping the bed about tapering and a timetable announcement of returning to an interest rate normalization policy. The latest meeting minutes included commentary like:“HIGHLY ACCOMODATIVE UNDER ALL SCENARIOS”\r\n“SUBSTANTIAL STIMULUS STILL NEEDED”\r\n“CONCERNS ABOUT CURRENCY VOLATILITY AND EURO RISE” “MUST BE MINDFUL OF MARKET EXPECTATIONS ON FUTURE POLICY”\r\n\r\nI would define this as not quite sure and uncertainty!</li>\r\n 	<li>RBA was playing stick. Not looking to move away from being accommodative / supportive. Then like a “bolt from the blue” out comes RBA board member Ian Harper who quipped that if the Australian was to worsen the RBA has NOT ruled out an interest rate cut.Well, in all honesty. That is normal. It’s what a Central bank does in its normal course of day-to-day business. However it is usually done on a nod and a wink basis, not in font size 72 to the media… interesting. This comment came after two bloody awful months of Retail Sales data.</li>\r\n 	<li>RBNZ has recently stated that it is remaining accommodative for an extended period.</li>\r\n 	<li>BOC, Stephen Poloz is being cagey on what the BOC will do next after two recent rate hikes. The recent run of data has been disappointing. Of all the Central Banks except the Fed I still think that the BOC will raise rates if only to curb house prices and personal debt borrowing in Canada.</li>\r\n 	<li>SNB and BOJ remain unchanged, interfering if required and accommodative for generations to come!</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nSimply put, the divergence of Central Bank policy is once again at the forefront of institutions as they head into the year end. Many have books based upon the calendar year and from now through to the end of the year the big movers and shakers will be getting positioned.\r\n\r\nI am still a HUGE believer that Central Bank monetary policy is what primarily moves a currency. I know that within this framework there are a lot of idiosyncratic reasoning behind some moves and that certain personalities believe that policy is more about themselves rather than the country, but overall, in my opinion Central Bank monetary policy is primary.\r\n\r\nBasically, the FED is raising interest rates in the U.S. and the rest are in limbo at best.\r\n\r\nThere will be some very interesting trading conditions ahead but from the way I am looking at this, I need the dust to settle a little at least until I can see a clear shift in sentiment.\r\n\r\nAt the end of the day we could just be retracing technically in the DXY and there is a bear flag formation setting up to move the DXY lower once again inside the longer-term trend.\r\n\r\nI am finding it difficult to get an absolute fix on what is driving the USD and then on top of everything we have the geopolitical tensions. North Korea could raise its head once again as we enter a period of the country’s anniversaries. I noted during the week that TRUMP mentioned that we are now in “The calm before the storm”. In addition, there is the Iran nuclear deal that TRUMP wants to amend or discard (not sure it’s hard to keep up). Both items have enough to reverse the USD move at the drop of a hat.\r\n\r\nThere is a lot to consider if you are not a market scalper or day trader.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nI have finally recorded, changed, updated, re-recorded and finally placed a version of “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE” on my YouTube and Screencast channels.\r\n\r\nIt is essentially for new subscribers to add a little more to a subscription decision other than the written word on my website. I can also use it with some advertising as well. I am never happy with these things and I will no doubt tinker with it moving forward. A couple of segments were re-worked but perhaps still require a little more attention. There comes a point however, that if I do NOT just post it, it may never see the light of day.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a>\r\n\r\nHowever, …\r\n\r\nNot as much luck with my EA’s (Expert Advisors) this week. These algorithms have taken a serious backseat. This coming week is a slack week for economic data so I should get a chance to move forward all things being equal.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong></strong><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:\r\n\r\n</strong><u>2.1: LOOKING BACK AT LAST WEEK’S NEWS.</u></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nOn my God… there is so much I could write about, I will be selective and to the best of my ability concise (Please allow some tolerance I am from Liverpool and I love having this SOAPBOX option).\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP</u></strong><u>: PMi DATA, THE BOE, BREXIT and THERESA MAY’S MELTDOWN.</u>\r\n\r\nHoly shit… there is a book in that heading alone.\r\n\r\nThe PMI data was as predicted in last week’s DRIVE THRU. Manufacturing and Construction to miss and Services to beat.\r\n\r\nOverall the numbers were poor. In fact, Construction came in at 48.1 against 51.1 which placed it in the contraction zone being less than 50.0. Manufacturing recorded 55.9 against 56.7 and Services showed 53.6 versus 53.2.\r\n\r\nFrankly, this data is backward looking but in all honesty in the name of sanity how can the BOE raise rates on these numbers? The numbers are more akin to RATE CUTTING not RATE HIKING.\r\n\r\nOld flip-flopper will be flip flopping in my opinion but he has an out on his side to save face. First, whilst I realise the BOE has a mandate on inflation, second and thirdly, it also must consider economic stability and prevent unnecessary market volatility through uncertainties.\r\n\r\nBREXIT is just a bloody disaster by all accounts. Politicians are fecking useless at negotiation. The UK have put up David Davies a politician against Michel Barnier a “pen pushing jotter blotter” from Brussels who has no accountability to a parliament or voters. Barnier couldn’t give a crap. It’s just a job. Mind you he doesn’t appear to have to do a damn thing anyway, the Brits can’t even get into the starting blocks, absolutely fecking useless numpties.\r\n\r\nThe UK is so bad they are even promoting a “NO DEAL” as the outcome. FFS what a load of crap.\r\n\r\nIf that was not enough…\r\n\r\nTheresa May at the Conservative Party conference in Manchester coughed and spluttered her way through her speech. She even took a cough drop from Chancellor Philip Hammond to try and stop her coughing spasm. At the same time, in the background letters that were obviously stuck to the stage set with double sided tape fell off. The slogan which originally read” Building a country that works for everyone” ended up being “Building a country that works or everyon”. If that weren’t enough she was handed a P45 by a gatecrasher (In the UK you receive this form when you leave your existing job).\r\n\r\nWhat’s the phrase “When shit happens…. shit happens!!”\r\n\r\nShe was praised by her team of her arse-lickers stating that she carried on brilliantly through adversity. However, in the real world the wagons are circling just like in an old John Wayne movie!\r\n\r\nThe speech was low on content. BREXIT has brought the party to a dysfunctional state. The cracks, that were covered in paper after the referendum are widening and the paper cover gone. The word disastrous is being used by many media outlets to describe Theresa May’s performance. Far from rallying the troops she has heightened the differences.\r\n\r\nHer position a Prime Minister and leader of the Conservative Party is hanging by a thread. I believe she will be booted out with little dignity much like the way Maggie was, whilst on a business trip in Paris. It would be better for Theresa May to walk sooner rather than later.\r\n\r\nHaving said that what numpty wants the responsibility of BREXIT? Maybe it’s best to leave her in position, her career is fecked anyway and the BREXIT negotiation disaster can be pinned 100% to her legacy.\r\n\r\nHere’s a point to consider…\r\n\r\nThe UK has done feck all on getting the BREXIT negotiations started. Could there be another referendum with a new leader as the “Unsullied” in the shires think that the Tory government have really fecked up BREXIT so far.\r\n\r\nJust saying and thinking aloud…\r\n\r\nAnyway, enough of that….\r\n\r\nWith regards to the above, Carney in my opinion, has a decent case to say; “Hold on, no rate hike” (even with 3% inflation which he could argue is transitory like all Central bankers do!). I think that there is a chance he could get away with it without being categorized again as a flip flopper. This would apply especially if Theresa May were to resign or be ousted inside the next 2/3 weeks.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>EUR</u></strong><u>: CATALAN, BRUSSELS and the GERMAN ELECTION FALLOUT.</u>\r\n\r\nWTF…\r\n\r\nSome horrible scenes around Barcelona were televised last weekend with voters being dragged, hit, whacked with batons and generally beaten up over simply trying to vote. For those who thought that Spain had come a long way since the Francisco (General) Franco era… think again…. it would appear NOT. Quite a disgrace.\r\n\r\nIn addition, the silence from the rest of the EUROPEAN UNION, BRUSSELS etc. was a shocking display of how a united EUROPE could NEVER happen not in a million years. It was an embarrassment to those who call themselves leaders. The silence to me however spoke louder than any words that politicians could utter.\r\n\r\nWe enter another weekend of probable disturbances as Mariano Rajoy (Spanish Prime Minister) suspends the Catalan Parliament session next Monday in an attempt to block an independence vote taking place in the regional parliament.\r\n\r\nThe Catalan leaders are at a crossroads. Either move forward with declaring independence or try to negotiate a settlement to separate with Madrid.\r\n\r\nThis story has a great deal more left in it, with the King of Spain (Felipe) being accused of being a mouthpiece for the Spanish Government by the Catalan Regional President Carles Puigdemont.\r\n\r\nMeetings are scheduled moving forward through the weekend but I feel that this item has a long, long way still to run before its settled. Already businesses are moving Head Offices out of Catalonia in readiness for the split. It does not seem to have directly affected the single currency that much… weird to me.\r\n\r\nThis is very quiet news…\r\n\r\nAngela Merkel is still busy in the background working away trying to finalize a revised coalition government. This is taking some time and press releases are sparse which, to me indicate issues on agreements. With so many parties involved, the result will be a washed out version on what Merkel campaigned on. Coalitions = weak government.\r\n\r\nI do not believe that this has been factored in at all to the single currency exchange rate. It appears to be in suspended animation mode at the moment. I think that the larger traders are more concerned with the moves from the ECB than anything else.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>AUD</u></strong><u>: RBA RATE STATEMENT, TRADE BALANCE, RETAIL SALES.</u>\r\n\r\nThe RBA is standing firm and frankly looking around at what is going on, strong leadership from Philip Lowe is paying off.\r\n\r\nIn last week’s statement, he stated that high exchange rates would harm the economy and as usual the RBA provided subtle jawboning which has worked.\r\n\r\nDuring the week, the Trade Balance data was good (+0.99BAUD$ against a forecast of +0.88B AUD$), this was counterbalanced at the same time by poor Retail Sales at -0.6% it was worse than last month at -0.2% but the forecast was a +0.3%, the AUD was taken to the woodshed and spanked lower.\r\n\r\nOn Friday, last week RBA member Ian Harper leapt out of the masses to quip that the RBA would cut interest rates if the recent slowdown in the Australian economy worsens.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>CAD</u></strong><u>: TRADE BALANCE and JOBS DATA.</u>\r\n\r\nMore poor data was seen from Canada in the guise of Trade balance numbers that missed expectations (-CAD$3.4B forecast –CAD$2.6B).\r\n\r\nThe USD/CAD was whacked up another cent from 1.2470 to 1.2570 on the back of that data.\r\n\r\nThe jobs data followed 24 hours later and it was a very slight miss at 10k jobs vis-à-vis 12k anticipated. The Unemployment Rate remained at 6.2%, a slight uptick to 6.3% was expected.\r\n\r\nBecause the U.S. data was so erroneous the market struggled to know what to do and how to react and this overrode any logical moves with the CAD directly. Therefore, it basically tread water after the initial market volatility.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD</u></strong><u>: NON-FARM PAYROLLS and ISM PMI data.</u>\r\n\r\nThe number was a negative 33,000 jobs created and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.2%, which is less than pre-the GFC. Average hourly earnings rose to 0.5% from a previous 0.1% and forecasted 0.3%. This was strong.\r\n\r\nThe USD strengthened but did not go hell for leather to break the trading ranges.\r\n\r\nAs I mentioned in last week’s blog even before we were made aware that last week’s numbers would be hard to interpret, given the storms and hurricanes that basically battered the U.S. of late, I was already of the opinion that NFP helping the FED with policy was a non-event. As, in my opinion, the Fed have decided already.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2: LOOKING AHEAD TO THIS COMING WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n2.2.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ECON-DATA-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10155\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ECON-DATA-08102017-1024x674.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"674\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.2: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/TCHART-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10156\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/TCHART-08102017-1024x846.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"846\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.3: USD – TRADING CHARTS and COMMENTARIES: </u>\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>EUR/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/EURUSD-D-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10165\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/EURUSD-D-08102017-1024x483.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"483\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/GBPUSD-D-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10166\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/GBPUSD-D-08102017-1024x483.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"483\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/AUDUSD-D-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10164\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/AUDUSD-D-08102017-1024x483.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"483\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/NZDUSD-D-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10167\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/NZDUSD-D-08102017-1024x483.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"483\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCAD-D-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10168\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCAD-D-08102017-1024x483.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"483\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCHF-D-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10169\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCHF-D-08102017-1024x483.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"483\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDJPY-D-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10170\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDJPY-D-08102017-1024x483.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"483\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.4: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:</u>\r\n\r\nNot a lot this week to choose from at all.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD:</u></strong><u> PPi, RETAIL SALES and CPi INFLATION DATA</u>.\r\n\r\nI would never be-little the power of inflation data for an economy. It obviously takes on greater importance when the U.S. economy is involved, as this data represents such a vital barometer for sentiment moving forward. However, without wanting to sound as complacent and blasé as the markets are to data releases, I do think whilst these numbers are interesting to read from a trending perspective, from a FED viewpoint I do not think they are going to matter unless they miss by 5% or greater… something mind blowing off forecast is what I mean.\r\n\r\nThe FED has made its mind up vis-à-vis an interest rate move higher in December.\r\n\r\nThe FX market being a future pricing mechanism based primarily off Central Bank Monetary Policy will be baking this into pricing as we move closer to the December FED meeting on the 12th and 13th, with the announcement due on the 13th December 2017 at 2PM EST.\r\n\r\nBack to economic data…\r\n\r\nLast time around, everything was positive 0.2% - 0.4% except for Retail Sales which posted a poor -0.2% number.\r\n\r\nThis time the forecasts show basically an improvement across the board with Retail Sales expected at 1.5%. We are dealing with the ultimate consumer society in the world. The biggest economy in the world. The forecasts should be a piece of piss.\r\n\r\nAlways expected the unexpected.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.5: HOW TO PLAY THE MARKET THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\nThere is not a lot of data due this week and as such we will be captives to the movements in equities, securities and commodities.\r\n\r\nI do not think I would get much disagreement when I say almost since TRUMP was inaugurated the market has been more headline news driven that anything else.\r\n\r\nI think that I am alone with these thoughts as I do NOT find this market easy and I am struggling to get the reasoning behind moves and finding traction with direction and trade set ups is a little more difficult than usual.\r\n\r\nThis makes trading more of a gamble than a well thought out reasoned strategy or TRADE PLAN. For traders with more than a 60-minute trading horizon this brings a raft of issues into play that the scalpers of this world do not have to consider.\r\n\r\nWe have considerable heightened geopolitical news hovering around us with regards to “Little Rocket Man” and the Iran nuclear deal review.\r\n\r\nIt would very easy and glib to say just be careful trading this week. It would be accurate but a bit wishy-washy.\r\n\r\nThe USD weakened into the close last Friday, I see this as purely positioning as frankly no-one would really want to be heavy into being long the USD into the weekend with all the geopolitical risk being about.\r\n\r\nWe are in ranges at the moment that last week’s NFP could not break and whilst some individual pairs cut extremes (GBP/USD &amp; AUD/USD), the EUR/USD held above 1.1660 which, I think is significant.\r\n\r\nMore detail of my thoughts and ideas will appear for PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers as I add back trade set ups at the start of this week’s trading through Monday / Tuesday.\r\n\r\nFrom a general perspective, a lot depends on the news.\r\n\r\nTherefore, the only logical guide to present here would be to trade smaller sized positions. I expect a chop fest with no real overall direction, although, I do think that the chances of the USD breaking much higher will be limited unless a significant break past the 94.00 (DXY) the 23.6% retracement of the TRUMP inauguration move. If we break through 94.00 then the 95.86 (38.2%) would be in view, but in my opinion unless TRUMP has some significant “wins” I think the DXY moves lower with the trend and the USD takes another hit.\r\n\r\nTherefore…\r\n\r\nPlay the waiting game to see the reaction on Monday after NFP has been digested thru all markets. Try and get a confirmation of the bigger move before pulling the trigger.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is my own subscriber based Forex support service that offers subscribers my suggested trade set-ups and market commentaries.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting the HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE tab.\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT 2017 PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\n\r\nOCTOBER 2017 TO DATE:           +481 net pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE 2017:                    +7,987 net pips\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs on my website  <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS ONLY:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4.1: TRADING REVIEW:\r\n</u>\r\nI added pips again last week but struggled to get to grips with the market moves and therefore decided the best policy was to stay sidelined. On the basis that last week contained NFP, which I hate trading anyway it was probably not a bad thing to observe and not participate.\r\n\r\nI am not one of these traders who literally explode if they are not very active on all occasions and frankly whilst when I first started trading I used to hate missing moves I am now much calmer and prefer to see moves confirmed first.\r\n\r\nI wrote in the introduction to this week’s blog that Central Divergence may be coming back as flavour of the month once again. Who knows…? I think half the time we spend our time trying to find reasons for moves in a dysfunctional market that simply have no explanation. All I do know is that moves are now almost always stretched beyond reason. Last Thursday’s prior to NFP was a case in point being a classic example.\r\n\r\nThe non-economic news last week heavily influenced the moves.\r\n\r\nTheresa May really has hit new lows. There is no credible alternative and in all honesty who would want the poisoned chalice of BREXIT, trying to complete a divorce from the EUROPEAN UNION with already 6 months of a tight timescale wasted because the wrong people are in the job. Add the recent poor economic data and the BOE into the mix. And we have uncertainty.\r\n\r\nI am now more bearish cable than I was just after the BREXIT referendum. Once Carney and his accountants at the BOE announced a change in policy to probably raise rates to counter inflation, my thought process was initially that we could perhaps see a series of hikes through 2018 as well. However, my change of heart vis-à-vis cable emanates from the recent data and Theresa May’s position as leader of the Conservative party. In my opinion adding all the negativity together there is a case building to cut interest rates further rather than hiking interest rates.\r\n\r\nThe EURO seems to be 100% in different to everything going on around it.  German Elections not much movement, riots and shameful violence by authorities on the streets of Barcelona nada… nothing. The EUR/USD has been stuck in about a 100-pip range.\r\n\r\nIt is a strange trading environment and I have to admit I cannot make sense out of it. Even the recent threat of a nuclear war had no effect. The VIX is below 10.\r\n\r\nI want to trade the USD to the long side, but, I have a nagging feeling that the DXY is simply flagging and my thoughts of Central Bank divergence whilst on the surface seem plausible, it could all be total bollocks and basically the DXY will resume lower and take out the recent lows.\r\n\r\nI have opinions and thoughts both sides of the market but on exactly what to do with the USD, I am just not that sure.\r\n\r\nI do however still believe that equities are ready to drop… I feel this is like the boy that cried wolf statement. I reckon if you go back through two years of blogs I have said this in about 60 of the 80 blogs published. Yet we have the most reluctant bull rally in modern day history.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nYou would have noticed that I hedged GBP/NZD and GBP/AUD ahead of the NFP into last weekend. This was a move to protect the existing trades but also buy me time. I haven’t hedged for over two years, but I feel that until I get my head around my TRADE PLAN it was best to hedge these two trades as they can run a long way very quickly.\r\n\r\nThe easy bit is done and both trades have triggered so basically now it’s all about working with a combined 500 pip loss and seeing what I can do to reduce it. These trades will be parked from my brain until the middle of the week at least I think.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.2: SENTIMENT,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:</u>\r\n\r\nThe market has become a very strange beast to me of late.\r\n\r\nI like to know, or have a reasonably good idea why things happen, as things happen for a reason. The Forex market does have the same logic applied to it most of the time, even though with myself included traders will try to pin reasons to moves, when, sometimes the moves are just so off the board it would take in my opinion a very deranged person to work out the sense of the move at times.\r\n\r\nI wrote several weeks ago about a MARKET SHIFT. It never really got going. Most of it was based around Central Bank policy, which, apart from the BOC it looks like the remaining Central Banks apart from the FED, will have either cold feet on a move higher or, a watered-down version of their Monetary Policy update or a combination of both.\r\n\r\nI am constantly having to evaluate and re-evaluate my medium to longer-term views. I am still; Bullish the CAD currency despite the recent hiccups. Bearish the NZD and getting bearish the AUD at a great rate of knots. In the longer-term I want to be bullish the CHF.\r\n\r\nIn the interim, I am thinking about leaving the EUR and GBP alone. If someone were to hold a gun to my head and say I must trade one of these I would probably choose the GBP, but right now I am confused. Technically both currencies versus the USD still retain a constructive upward trend.\r\n\r\nCable looks good long from 1.2950 and the EU/USD from 1.1660. Technically these trades look to be a great RISK / REWARD opportunity but FUNDAMENTALLY I am not yet there!\r\n\r\nIf in doubt leave it out, is probably the best approach here unless of course I see a real conviction trade opportunity.\r\n\r\nIn the now...\r\n\r\nI think that commodity currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD and MXN) are the way forward.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/SENTIMENT-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10163\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/SENTIMENT-08102017-785x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"785\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>4.3: EXISTING CORE TRADES (PLANS &amp; STRATEGIES):</u>\r\n\r\nBasically, I am STILL bearish the CAD and NZD currencies. As eluded to earlier I am looking short-term at adding the AUD to my bearish positioning.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE CAD:</u></strong>\r\nCurrently, I am live the following: -\r\n\r\n3 x live short USD/CAD trades\r\n\r\nPlus: - I have BUY STOP limit orders in position for the CAD/CHF and CAD/JPY.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: Is to wait a little and I will add back additional short USD/CAD trades and add NZD/CAD short trades as well.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE NZD</u></strong>:\r\n\r\nCurrently I have 5 x live long AUD/NZD trades.\r\n\r\nI have also hedged a long GBP/NZD trade to cover increased market uncertainties in the short term. My maximum loss on the trade is limited to 300 pips out of a Monthly ATR of c.1,300 pips.\r\n\r\nPlus: - I have 2 x AUD/NZD and a further GBP/NZD limit order trades in position.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: I am looking to enter the NZD/USD on pullbacks. In addition, add back the EUR/NZD trade that I took profits on pre NFP day. Plus, to add NZD/CAD and NZD/JPY to my limit order set ups.\r\n\r\nIn addition, work my way out of the GBP/NZD hedged position.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE AUD:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nCurrently I am in the process of building a position.\r\n\r\nI have live, 1 x AUD/JPY short, 1 x EUR/AUD long and like the GBP/NZD my GBP/AUD long trade was hedged given the uncertainties around the GBP following Theresa May’s conference speech and BREXIT shambles. My maximum loss on this trade is now 200 pips and given that the Monthly ATR is over 1,000 pips I am comfortable with this to manage.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: Apart from working my way out of the GBP/AUD hedged position is to add on pullbacks AUD/USD short positions.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.4: CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\nCURRENT LIVE TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LIVE-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10162\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LIVE-08102017-933x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"933\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\nCURRENT LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LIMIT-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10161\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LIMIT-08102017-1024x779.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"779\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.5: FX BROKER NEWS with their MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\nI hope that none of you have friends or families in FX Brokers but OMG they are bereft of ideas.\r\n\r\nI am trying out three new brokers on demo trades and I want one of them to eventually maintain my algorithmic (EA) trades.\r\n\r\nThey know that retail traders are disappearing as fast as turkeys with thanksgiving on the horizon, yet apart “FREEBIES” that we all know we pay for with poor rate spreads they seem to have no plan forward. I think these Russian white label deals have really screwed over the real brokers. It was OK when times were good but now they struggle.\r\n\r\nNot one of them wants to release numbers. There is a fear in doing so. My thought process leads me down a path that says that acquisitions will soon be order of the day to obtain efficiencies. When this happens, we will know that numbers are seriously declining.\r\n\r\nNo market news to report of other than at the year-end expect a huge push to try and covert clients. Remember… there is no such thing as a FREE LUNCH or CHARITABLE BROKER!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FINISHING LINE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5.1: WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you have read in this blog and would like the chance to win a FREE SUBSCRIPTION valued at CAD$150.00, all you should do is subscribe to my FREE NEWSLETTER (this blog), by adding your email address on my welcome page just below my cube logo at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\n<u>5.2: PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTIONS:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you’ve read in this blog and should you want to go a stage further and subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE. This can be done on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the Tab SUBSCRIBE HERE.\r\n\r\nSubscribing to the PREMIUM SERVICE is not just about receiving a larger “DRIVE THRU” blog packed with more trading supporting information, my thoughts and ideas. There is much more to a subscription than those things. Check it all out under the tab HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3: CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @ThePremService\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #150 PREMIUM SERVICE\r\n8th October 2017\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','UK RATE HIKE IN THE BALANCE?','','publish','open','closed','','uk-rate-hike-balance','','','2017-10-07 09:53:44','2017-10-07 14:53:44','',0,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?post_type=member_posts&#038;p=10171',0,'member_posts','',0),(10173,1,'2017-10-07 09:53:44','2017-10-07 14:53:44','&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a lot to talk about last week, it is difficult to know exactly where to focus first.  However, that is for a little later in the blog.\r\n\r\nThe USD got its mojo back last week in some style. I am still struggling to find reasons to be long the USD. Of late data has started to be the right side of “mixed” to support a move higher in the DXY, the PMi data was good. In addition, the recent FED speak has been very HAWKISH in tone. See the chart below (The chart does contain a few additional thoughts).\r\n\r\nOverall though I think that maybe it\'s the fact that the market is starting to believe that regardless “of whatever”, Yellen is leaving her position as FED CHAIR next February with another rate hike in her purse?\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/DXY-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10154\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/DXY-08102017-1024x497.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"497\" /></a>\r\n\r\nHowever, this is my piece du résistance on the matter of recent USD (DXY) strength.\r\n\r\nI have a thought process along these lines….\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>The FED is raising rates come what may.</li>\r\n 	<li>The BOE has real dilemmas to face.Theresa May’s longevity as Prime Minister. She could be removed as Tory leader before I complete this blog!\r\n\r\nBREXIT negotiations are pretty much a shambles. The “No Deal” scenario is openly discussed more and more. If May is “kicked out” another timeline vacuum ensues and this results in additional pressure on the exit deadline.\r\n\r\nThe recent PMi data was basically poor…well really CRAP. The UK economy is declining and it will only get worse before it stands a chance of getting better.\r\n\r\n3% inflation or not. I just think it\'s a suicide mission on the UK economy to raise rates with so much uncertainty.</li>\r\n 	<li>The ECB governing council are basically crapping the bed about tapering and a timetable announcement of returning to an interest rate normalization policy. The latest meeting minutes included commentary like:“HIGHLY ACCOMODATIVE UNDER ALL SCENARIOS”\r\n“SUBSTANTIAL STIMULUS STILL NEEDED”\r\n“CONCERNS ABOUT CURRENCY VOLATILITY AND EURO RISE” “MUST BE MINDFUL OF MARKET EXPECTATIONS ON FUTURE POLICY”\r\n\r\nI would define this as not quite sure and uncertainty!</li>\r\n 	<li>RBA was playing stick. Not looking to move away from being accommodative / supportive. Then like a “bolt from the blue” out comes RBA board member Ian Harper who quipped that if the Australian was to worsen the RBA has NOT ruled out an interest rate cut.Well, in all honesty. That is normal. It’s what a Central bank does in its normal course of day-to-day business. However it is usually done on a nod and a wink basis, not in font size 72 to the media… interesting. This comment came after two bloody awful months of Retail Sales data.</li>\r\n 	<li>RBNZ has recently stated that it is remaining accommodative for an extended period.</li>\r\n 	<li>BOC, Stephen Poloz is being cagey on what the BOC will do next after two recent rate hikes. The recent run of data has been disappointing. Of all the Central Banks except the Fed I still think that the BOC will raise rates if only to curb house prices and personal debt borrowing in Canada.</li>\r\n 	<li>SNB and BOJ remain unchanged, interfering if required and accommodative for generations to come!</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nSimply put, the divergence of Central Bank policy is once again at the forefront of institutions as they head into the year end. Many have books based upon the calendar year and from now through to the end of the year the big movers and shakers will be getting positioned.\r\n\r\nI am still a HUGE believer that Central Bank monetary policy is what primarily moves a currency. I know that within this framework there are a lot of idiosyncratic reasoning behind some moves and that certain personalities believe that policy is more about themselves rather than the country, but overall, in my opinion Central Bank monetary policy is primary.\r\n\r\nBasically, the FED is raising interest rates in the U.S. and the rest are in limbo at best.\r\n\r\nThere will be some very interesting trading conditions ahead but from the way I am looking at this, I need the dust to settle a little at least until I can see a clear shift in sentiment.\r\n\r\nAt the end of the day we could just be retracing technically in the DXY and there is a bear flag formation setting up to move the DXY lower once again inside the longer-term trend.\r\n\r\nI am finding it difficult to get an absolute fix on what is driving the USD and then on top of everything we have the geopolitical tensions. North Korea could raise its head once again as we enter a period of the country’s anniversaries. I noted during the week that TRUMP mentioned that we are now in “The calm before the storm”. In addition, there is the Iran nuclear deal that TRUMP wants to amend or discard (not sure it’s hard to keep up). Both items have enough to reverse the USD move at the drop of a hat.\r\n\r\nThere is a lot to consider if you are not a market scalper or day trader.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nI have finally recorded, changed, updated, re-recorded and finally placed a version of “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE” on my YouTube and Screencast channels.\r\n\r\nIt is essentially for new subscribers to add a little more to a subscription decision other than the written word on my website. I can also use it with some advertising as well. I am never happy with these things and I will no doubt tinker with it moving forward. A couple of segments were re-worked but perhaps still require a little more attention. There comes a point however, that if I do NOT just post it, it may never see the light of day.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a>\r\n\r\nHowever, …\r\n\r\nNot as much luck with my EA’s (Expert Advisors) this week. These algorithms have taken a serious backseat. This coming week is a slack week for economic data so I should get a chance to move forward all things being equal.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong></strong><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:\r\n\r\n</strong><u>2.1: LOOKING BACK AT LAST WEEK’S NEWS.</u></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nOn my God… there is so much I could write about, I will be selective and to the best of my ability concise (Please allow some tolerance I am from Liverpool and I love having this SOAPBOX option).\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP</u></strong><u>: PMi DATA, THE BOE, BREXIT and THERESA MAY’S MELTDOWN.</u>\r\n\r\nHoly shit… there is a book in that heading alone.\r\n\r\nThe PMI data was as predicted in last week’s DRIVE THRU. Manufacturing and Construction to miss and Services to beat.\r\n\r\nOverall the numbers were poor. In fact, Construction came in at 48.1 against 51.1 which placed it in the contraction zone being less than 50.0. Manufacturing recorded 55.9 against 56.7 and Services showed 53.6 versus 53.2.\r\n\r\nFrankly, this data is backward looking but in all honesty in the name of sanity how can the BOE raise rates on these numbers? The numbers are more akin to RATE CUTTING not RATE HIKING.\r\n\r\nOld flip-flopper will be flip flopping in my opinion but he has an out on his side to save face. First, whilst I realise the BOE has a mandate on inflation, second and thirdly, it also must consider economic stability and prevent unnecessary market volatility through uncertainties.\r\n\r\nBREXIT is just a bloody disaster by all accounts. Politicians are fecking useless at negotiation. The UK have put up David Davies a politician against Michel Barnier a “pen pushing jotter blotter” from Brussels who has no accountability to a parliament or voters. Barnier couldn’t give a crap. It’s just a job. Mind you he doesn’t appear to have to do a damn thing anyway, the Brits can’t even get into the starting blocks, absolutely fecking useless numpties.\r\n\r\nThe UK is so bad they are even promoting a “NO DEAL” as the outcome. FFS what a load of crap.\r\n\r\nIf that was not enough…\r\n\r\nTheresa May at the Conservative Party conference in Manchester coughed and spluttered her way through her speech. She even took a cough drop from Chancellor Philip Hammond to try and stop her coughing spasm. At the same time, in the background letters that were obviously stuck to the stage set with double sided tape fell off. The slogan which originally read” Building a country that works for everyone” ended up being “Building a country that works or everyon”. If that weren’t enough she was handed a P45 by a gatecrasher (In the UK you receive this form when you leave your existing job).\r\n\r\nWhat’s the phrase “When shit happens…. shit happens!!”\r\n\r\nShe was praised by her team of her arse-lickers stating that she carried on brilliantly through adversity. However, in the real world the wagons are circling just like in an old John Wayne movie!\r\n\r\nThe speech was low on content. BREXIT has brought the party to a dysfunctional state. The cracks, that were covered in paper after the referendum are widening and the paper cover gone. The word disastrous is being used by many media outlets to describe Theresa May’s performance. Far from rallying the troops she has heightened the differences.\r\n\r\nHer position a Prime Minister and leader of the Conservative Party is hanging by a thread. I believe she will be booted out with little dignity much like the way Maggie was, whilst on a business trip in Paris. It would be better for Theresa May to walk sooner rather than later.\r\n\r\nHaving said that what numpty wants the responsibility of BREXIT? Maybe it’s best to leave her in position, her career is fecked anyway and the BREXIT negotiation disaster can be pinned 100% to her legacy.\r\n\r\nHere’s a point to consider…\r\n\r\nThe UK has done feck all on getting the BREXIT negotiations started. Could there be another referendum with a new leader as the “Unsullied” in the shires think that the Tory government have really fecked up BREXIT so far.\r\n\r\nJust saying and thinking aloud…\r\n\r\nAnyway, enough of that….\r\n\r\nWith regards to the above, Carney in my opinion, has a decent case to say; “Hold on, no rate hike” (even with 3% inflation which he could argue is transitory like all Central bankers do!). I think that there is a chance he could get away with it without being categorized again as a flip flopper. This would apply especially if Theresa May were to resign or be ousted inside the next 2/3 weeks.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>EUR</u></strong><u>: CATALAN, BRUSSELS and the GERMAN ELECTION FALLOUT.</u>\r\n\r\nWTF…\r\n\r\nSome horrible scenes around Barcelona were televised last weekend with voters being dragged, hit, whacked with batons and generally beaten up over simply trying to vote. For those who thought that Spain had come a long way since the Francisco (General) Franco era… think again…. it would appear NOT. Quite a disgrace.\r\n\r\nIn addition, the silence from the rest of the EUROPEAN UNION, BRUSSELS etc. was a shocking display of how a united EUROPE could NEVER happen not in a million years. It was an embarrassment to those who call themselves leaders. The silence to me however spoke louder than any words that politicians could utter.\r\n\r\nWe enter another weekend of probable disturbances as Mariano Rajoy (Spanish Prime Minister) suspends the Catalan Parliament session next Monday in an attempt to block an independence vote taking place in the regional parliament.\r\n\r\nThe Catalan leaders are at a crossroads. Either move forward with declaring independence or try to negotiate a settlement to separate with Madrid.\r\n\r\nThis story has a great deal more left in it, with the King of Spain (Felipe) being accused of being a mouthpiece for the Spanish Government by the Catalan Regional President Carles Puigdemont.\r\n\r\nMeetings are scheduled moving forward through the weekend but I feel that this item has a long, long way still to run before its settled. Already businesses are moving Head Offices out of Catalonia in readiness for the split. It does not seem to have directly affected the single currency that much… weird to me.\r\n\r\nThis is very quiet news…\r\n\r\nAngela Merkel is still busy in the background working away trying to finalize a revised coalition government. This is taking some time and press releases are sparse which, to me indicate issues on agreements. With so many parties involved, the result will be a washed out version on what Merkel campaigned on. Coalitions = weak government.\r\n\r\nI do not believe that this has been factored in at all to the single currency exchange rate. It appears to be in suspended animation mode at the moment. I think that the larger traders are more concerned with the moves from the ECB than anything else.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>AUD</u></strong><u>: RBA RATE STATEMENT, TRADE BALANCE, RETAIL SALES.</u>\r\n\r\nThe RBA is standing firm and frankly looking around at what is going on, strong leadership from Philip Lowe is paying off.\r\n\r\nIn last week’s statement, he stated that high exchange rates would harm the economy and as usual the RBA provided subtle jawboning which has worked.\r\n\r\nDuring the week, the Trade Balance data was good (+0.99BAUD$ against a forecast of +0.88B AUD$), this was counterbalanced at the same time by poor Retail Sales at -0.6% it was worse than last month at -0.2% but the forecast was a +0.3%, the AUD was taken to the woodshed and spanked lower.\r\n\r\nOn Friday, last week RBA member Ian Harper leapt out of the masses to quip that the RBA would cut interest rates if the recent slowdown in the Australian economy worsens.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>CAD</u></strong><u>: TRADE BALANCE and JOBS DATA.</u>\r\n\r\nMore poor data was seen from Canada in the guise of Trade balance numbers that missed expectations (-CAD$3.4B forecast –CAD$2.6B).\r\n\r\nThe USD/CAD was whacked up another cent from 1.2470 to 1.2570 on the back of that data.\r\n\r\nThe jobs data followed 24 hours later and it was a very slight miss at 10k jobs vis-à-vis 12k anticipated. The Unemployment Rate remained at 6.2%, a slight uptick to 6.3% was expected.\r\n\r\nBecause the U.S. data was so erroneous the market struggled to know what to do and how to react and this overrode any logical moves with the CAD directly. Therefore, it basically tread water after the initial market volatility.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD</u></strong><u>: NON-FARM PAYROLLS and ISM PMI data.</u>\r\n\r\nThe number was a negative 33,000 jobs created and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.2%, which is less than pre-the GFC. Average hourly earnings rose to 0.5% from a previous 0.1% and forecasted 0.3%. This was strong.\r\n\r\nThe USD strengthened but did not go hell for leather to break the trading ranges.\r\n\r\nAs I mentioned in last week’s blog even before we were made aware that last week’s numbers would be hard to interpret, given the storms and hurricanes that basically battered the U.S. of late, I was already of the opinion that NFP helping the FED with policy was a non-event. As, in my opinion, the Fed have decided already.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2: LOOKING AHEAD TO THIS COMING WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n2.2.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ECON-DATA-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10155\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ECON-DATA-08102017-1024x674.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"674\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.2: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/TCHART-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10156\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/TCHART-08102017-1024x846.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"846\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.3: USD – TRADING CHARTS and COMMENTARIES: </u>\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>EUR/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/EURUSD-D-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10165\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/EURUSD-D-08102017-1024x483.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"483\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/GBPUSD-D-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10166\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/GBPUSD-D-08102017-1024x483.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"483\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/AUDUSD-D-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10164\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/AUDUSD-D-08102017-1024x483.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"483\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/NZDUSD-D-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10167\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/NZDUSD-D-08102017-1024x483.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"483\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCAD-D-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10168\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCAD-D-08102017-1024x483.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"483\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCHF-D-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10169\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCHF-D-08102017-1024x483.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"483\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDJPY-D-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10170\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDJPY-D-08102017-1024x483.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"483\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.4: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:</u>\r\n\r\nNot a lot this week to choose from at all.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD:</u></strong><u> PPi, RETAIL SALES and CPi INFLATION DATA</u>.\r\n\r\nI would never be-little the power of inflation data for an economy. It obviously takes on greater importance when the U.S. economy is involved, as this data represents such a vital barometer for sentiment moving forward. However, without wanting to sound as complacent and blasé as the markets are to data releases, I do think whilst these numbers are interesting to read from a trending perspective, from a FED viewpoint I do not think they are going to matter unless they miss by 5% or greater… something mind blowing off forecast is what I mean.\r\n\r\nThe FED has made its mind up vis-à-vis an interest rate move higher in December.\r\n\r\nThe FX market being a future pricing mechanism based primarily off Central Bank Monetary Policy will be baking this into pricing as we move closer to the December FED meeting on the 12th and 13th, with the announcement due on the 13th December 2017 at 2PM EST.\r\n\r\nBack to economic data…\r\n\r\nLast time around, everything was positive 0.2% - 0.4% except for Retail Sales which posted a poor -0.2% number.\r\n\r\nThis time the forecasts show basically an improvement across the board with Retail Sales expected at 1.5%. We are dealing with the ultimate consumer society in the world. The biggest economy in the world. The forecasts should be a piece of piss.\r\n\r\nAlways expected the unexpected.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.5: HOW TO PLAY THE MARKET THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\nThere is not a lot of data due this week and as such we will be captives to the movements in equities, securities and commodities.\r\n\r\nI do not think I would get much disagreement when I say almost since TRUMP was inaugurated the market has been more headline news driven that anything else.\r\n\r\nI think that I am alone with these thoughts as I do NOT find this market easy and I am struggling to get the reasoning behind moves and finding traction with direction and trade set ups is a little more difficult than usual.\r\n\r\nThis makes trading more of a gamble than a well thought out reasoned strategy or TRADE PLAN. For traders with more than a 60-minute trading horizon this brings a raft of issues into play that the scalpers of this world do not have to consider.\r\n\r\nWe have considerable heightened geopolitical news hovering around us with regards to “Little Rocket Man” and the Iran nuclear deal review.\r\n\r\nIt would very easy and glib to say just be careful trading this week. It would be accurate but a bit wishy-washy.\r\n\r\nThe USD weakened into the close last Friday, I see this as purely positioning as frankly no-one would really want to be heavy into being long the USD into the weekend with all the geopolitical risk being about.\r\n\r\nWe are in ranges at the moment that last week’s NFP could not break and whilst some individual pairs cut extremes (GBP/USD &amp; AUD/USD), the EUR/USD held above 1.1660 which, I think is significant.\r\n\r\nMore detail of my thoughts and ideas will appear for PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers as I add back trade set ups at the start of this week’s trading through Monday / Tuesday.\r\n\r\nFrom a general perspective, a lot depends on the news.\r\n\r\nTherefore, the only logical guide to present here would be to trade smaller sized positions. I expect a chop fest with no real overall direction, although, I do think that the chances of the USD breaking much higher will be limited unless a significant break past the 94.00 (DXY) the 23.6% retracement of the TRUMP inauguration move. If we break through 94.00 then the 95.86 (38.2%) would be in view, but in my opinion unless TRUMP has some significant “wins” I think the DXY moves lower with the trend and the USD takes another hit.\r\n\r\nTherefore…\r\n\r\nPlay the waiting game to see the reaction on Monday after NFP has been digested thru all markets. Try and get a confirmation of the bigger move before pulling the trigger.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is my own subscriber based Forex support service that offers subscribers my suggested trade set-ups and market commentaries.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting the HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE tab.\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT 2017 PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\n\r\nOCTOBER 2017 TO DATE:           +481 net pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE 2017:                    +7,987 net pips\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs on my website  <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS ONLY:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4.1: TRADING REVIEW:\r\n</u>\r\nI added pips again last week but struggled to get to grips with the market moves and therefore decided the best policy was to stay sidelined. On the basis that last week contained NFP, which I hate trading anyway it was probably not a bad thing to observe and not participate.\r\n\r\nI am not one of these traders who literally explode if they are not very active on all occasions and frankly whilst when I first started trading I used to hate missing moves I am now much calmer and prefer to see moves confirmed first.\r\n\r\nI wrote in the introduction to this week’s blog that Central Divergence may be coming back as flavour of the month once again. Who knows…? I think half the time we spend our time trying to find reasons for moves in a dysfunctional market that simply have no explanation. All I do know is that moves are now almost always stretched beyond reason. Last Thursday’s prior to NFP was a case in point being a classic example.\r\n\r\nThe non-economic news last week heavily influenced the moves.\r\n\r\nTheresa May really has hit new lows. There is no credible alternative and in all honesty who would want the poisoned chalice of BREXIT, trying to complete a divorce from the EUROPEAN UNION with already 6 months of a tight timescale wasted because the wrong people are in the job. Add the recent poor economic data and the BOE into the mix. And we have uncertainty.\r\n\r\nI am now more bearish cable than I was just after the BREXIT referendum. Once Carney and his accountants at the BOE announced a change in policy to probably raise rates to counter inflation, my thought process was initially that we could perhaps see a series of hikes through 2018 as well. However, my change of heart vis-à-vis cable emanates from the recent data and Theresa May’s position as leader of the Conservative party. In my opinion adding all the negativity together there is a case building to cut interest rates further rather than hiking interest rates.\r\n\r\nThe EURO seems to be 100% in different to everything going on around it.  German Elections not much movement, riots and shameful violence by authorities on the streets of Barcelona nada… nothing. The EUR/USD has been stuck in about a 100-pip range.\r\n\r\nIt is a strange trading environment and I have to admit I cannot make sense out of it. Even the recent threat of a nuclear war had no effect. The VIX is below 10.\r\n\r\nI want to trade the USD to the long side, but, I have a nagging feeling that the DXY is simply flagging and my thoughts of Central Bank divergence whilst on the surface seem plausible, it could all be total bollocks and basically the DXY will resume lower and take out the recent lows.\r\n\r\nI have opinions and thoughts both sides of the market but on exactly what to do with the USD, I am just not that sure.\r\n\r\nI do however still believe that equities are ready to drop… I feel this is like the boy that cried wolf statement. I reckon if you go back through two years of blogs I have said this in about 60 of the 80 blogs published. Yet we have the most reluctant bull rally in modern day history.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nYou would have noticed that I hedged GBP/NZD and GBP/AUD ahead of the NFP into last weekend. This was a move to protect the existing trades but also buy me time. I haven’t hedged for over two years, but I feel that until I get my head around my TRADE PLAN it was best to hedge these two trades as they can run a long way very quickly.\r\n\r\nThe easy bit is done and both trades have triggered so basically now it’s all about working with a combined 500 pip loss and seeing what I can do to reduce it. These trades will be parked from my brain until the middle of the week at least I think.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.2: SENTIMENT,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:</u>\r\n\r\nThe market has become a very strange beast to me of late.\r\n\r\nI like to know, or have a reasonably good idea why things happen, as things happen for a reason. The Forex market does have the same logic applied to it most of the time, even though with myself included traders will try to pin reasons to moves, when, sometimes the moves are just so off the board it would take in my opinion a very deranged person to work out the sense of the move at times.\r\n\r\nI wrote several weeks ago about a MARKET SHIFT. It never really got going. Most of it was based around Central Bank policy, which, apart from the BOC it looks like the remaining Central Banks apart from the FED, will have either cold feet on a move higher or, a watered-down version of their Monetary Policy update or a combination of both.\r\n\r\nI am constantly having to evaluate and re-evaluate my medium to longer-term views. I am still; Bullish the CAD currency despite the recent hiccups. Bearish the NZD and getting bearish the AUD at a great rate of knots. In the longer-term I want to be bullish the CHF.\r\n\r\nIn the interim, I am thinking about leaving the EUR and GBP alone. If someone were to hold a gun to my head and say I must trade one of these I would probably choose the GBP, but right now I am confused. Technically both currencies versus the USD still retain a constructive upward trend.\r\n\r\nCable looks good long from 1.2950 and the EU/USD from 1.1660. Technically these trades look to be a great RISK / REWARD opportunity but FUNDAMENTALLY I am not yet there!\r\n\r\nIf in doubt leave it out, is probably the best approach here unless of course I see a real conviction trade opportunity.\r\n\r\nIn the now...\r\n\r\nI think that commodity currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD and MXN) are the way forward.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/SENTIMENT-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10163\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/SENTIMENT-08102017-785x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"785\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>4.3: EXISTING CORE TRADES (PLANS &amp; STRATEGIES):</u>\r\n\r\nBasically, I am STILL bearish the CAD and NZD currencies. As eluded to earlier I am looking short-term at adding the AUD to my bearish positioning.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE CAD:</u></strong>\r\nCurrently, I am live the following: -\r\n\r\n3 x live short USD/CAD trades\r\n\r\nPlus: - I have BUY STOP limit orders in position for the CAD/CHF and CAD/JPY.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: Is to wait a little and I will add back additional short USD/CAD trades and add NZD/CAD short trades as well.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE NZD</u></strong>:\r\n\r\nCurrently I have 5 x live long AUD/NZD trades.\r\n\r\nI have also hedged a long GBP/NZD trade to cover increased market uncertainties in the short term. My maximum loss on the trade is limited to 300 pips out of a Monthly ATR of c.1,300 pips.\r\n\r\nPlus: - I have 2 x AUD/NZD and a further GBP/NZD limit order trades in position.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: I am looking to enter the NZD/USD on pullbacks. In addition, add back the EUR/NZD trade that I took profits on pre NFP day. Plus, to add NZD/CAD and NZD/JPY to my limit order set ups.\r\n\r\nIn addition, work my way out of the GBP/NZD hedged position.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE AUD:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nCurrently I am in the process of building a position.\r\n\r\nI have live, 1 x AUD/JPY short, 1 x EUR/AUD long and like the GBP/NZD my GBP/AUD long trade was hedged given the uncertainties around the GBP following Theresa May’s conference speech and BREXIT shambles. My maximum loss on this trade is now 200 pips and given that the Monthly ATR is over 1,000 pips I am comfortable with this to manage.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: Apart from working my way out of the GBP/AUD hedged position is to add on pullbacks AUD/USD short positions.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.4: CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\nCURRENT LIVE TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LIVE-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10162\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LIVE-08102017-933x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"933\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\nCURRENT LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LIMIT-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10161\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LIMIT-08102017-1024x779.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"779\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.5: FX BROKER NEWS with their MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\nI hope that none of you have friends or families in FX Brokers but OMG they are bereft of ideas.\r\n\r\nI am trying out three new brokers on demo trades and I want one of them to eventually maintain my algorithmic (EA) trades.\r\n\r\nThey know that retail traders are disappearing as fast as turkeys with thanksgiving on the horizon, yet apart “FREEBIES” that we all know we pay for with poor rate spreads they seem to have no plan forward. I think these Russian white label deals have really screwed over the real brokers. It was OK when times were good but now they struggle.\r\n\r\nNot one of them wants to release numbers. There is a fear in doing so. My thought process leads me down a path that says that acquisitions will soon be order of the day to obtain efficiencies. When this happens, we will know that numbers are seriously declining.\r\n\r\nNo market news to report of other than at the year-end expect a huge push to try and covert clients. Remember… there is no such thing as a FREE LUNCH or CHARITABLE BROKER!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FINISHING LINE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5.1: WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you have read in this blog and would like the chance to win a FREE SUBSCRIPTION valued at CAD$150.00, all you should do is subscribe to my FREE NEWSLETTER (this blog), by adding your email address on my welcome page just below my cube logo at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\n<u>5.2: PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTIONS:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you’ve read in this blog and should you want to go a stage further and subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE. This can be done on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the Tab SUBSCRIBE HERE.\r\n\r\nSubscribing to the PREMIUM SERVICE is not just about receiving a larger “DRIVE THRU” blog packed with more trading supporting information, my thoughts and ideas. There is much more to a subscription than those things. Check it all out under the tab HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3: CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @ThePremService\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #150 PREMIUM SERVICE\r\n8th October 2017\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','UK RATE HIKE IN THE BALANCE?','','inherit','closed','closed','','10171-revision-v1','','','2017-10-07 09:53:44','2017-10-07 14:53:44','',10171,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/10171-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(10822,1,'2018-01-19 13:03:40','2018-01-19 18:03:40','','RADAR 20012018','','inherit','open','closed','','radar-20012018','','','2018-01-20 07:39:50','2018-01-20 12:39:50','',2524,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/RADAR-20012018.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(10823,1,'2018-01-19 13:03:45','2018-01-19 18:03:45','','MOM 20012018','','inherit','open','closed','','mom-20012018','','','2018-01-20 07:40:31','2018-01-20 12:40:31','',10540,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/MOM-20012018.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(10824,1,'2018-01-19 13:03:50','2018-01-19 18:03:50','','FUN 20012018','','inherit','open','closed','','fun-20012018','','','2018-01-20 07:41:15','2018-01-20 12:41:15','',3106,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/FUN-20012018.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(10825,1,'2018-01-19 13:03:55','2018-01-19 18:03:55','','POS1 20012018','','inherit','open','closed','','pos1-20012018','','','2018-01-20 07:41:52','2018-01-20 12:41:52','',6965,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/POS1-20012018.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(10181,1,'2017-10-07 10:17:01','2017-10-07 15:17:01','&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a lot to talk about last week, it is difficult to know exactly where to focus first.  However, that is for a little later in the blog.\r\n\r\nThe USD got its mojo back last week in some style. I am still struggling to find reasons to be long the USD. Of late data has started to be the right side of “mixed” to support a move higher in the DXY, the PMi data was good. In addition, the recent FED speak has been very HAWKISH in tone. See the chart below (The chart does contain a few additional thoughts).\r\n\r\nOverall though I think that maybe it\'s the fact that the market is starting to believe that regardless “of whatever”, Yellen is leaving her position as FED CHAIR next February with another rate hike in her purse?\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/DXY-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10154\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/DXY-08102017-1024x497.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"497\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nHowever, this is my piece du résistance on the matter of recent USD (DXY) strength.\r\n\r\nI have a thought process along these lines….\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>The FED is raising rates come what may.</li>\r\n 	<li>The BOE has real dilemmas to face.\r\n\r\nTheresa May’s longevity as Prime Minister. She could be removed as Tory leader before I complete this blog!\r\n\r\nBREXIT negotiations are pretty much a shambles. The “No Deal” scenario is openly discussed more and more. If May is “kicked out” another timeline vacuum ensues and this results in additional pressure on the exit deadline.\r\n\r\nThe recent PMi data was basically poor…well really CRAP. The UK economy is declining and it will only get worse before it stands a chance of getting better.\r\n\r\n3% inflation or not. I just think it\'s a suicide mission on the UK economy to raise rates with so much uncertainty.</li>\r\n 	<li>The ECB governing council are basically crapping the bed about tapering and a timetable announcement of returning to an interest rate normalization policy. The latest meeting minutes included commentary like:\r\n\r\n“HIGHLY ACCOMODATIVE UNDER ALL SCENARIOS”\r\n“SUBSTANTIAL STIMULUS STILL NEEDED”\r\n“CONCERNS ABOUT CURRENCY VOLATILITY AND EURO RISE” “MUST BE MINDFUL OF MARKET EXPECTATIONS ON FUTURE POLICY”\r\n\r\nI would define this as not quite sure and uncertainty!</li>\r\n 	<li>RBA was playing stick. Not looking to move away from being accommodative / supportive. Then like a “bolt from the blue” out comes RBA board member Ian Harper who quipped that if the Australian was to worsen the RBA has NOT ruled out an interest rate cut.\r\n\r\nWell, in all honesty. That is normal. It’s what a Central bank does in its normal course of day-to-day business. However it is usually done on a nod and a wink basis, not in font size 72 to the media… interesting. This comment came after two bloody awful months of Retail Sales data.</li>\r\n 	<li>RBNZ has recently stated that it is remaining accommodative for an extended period.</li>\r\n 	<li>BOC, Stephen Poloz is being cagey on what the BOC will do next after two recent rate hikes. The recent run of data has been disappointing. Of all the Central Banks except the Fed I still think that the BOC will raise rates if only to curb house prices and personal debt borrowing in Canada.</li>\r\n 	<li>SNB and BOJ remain unchanged, interfering if required and accommodative for generations to come!</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nSimply put, the divergence of Central Bank policy is once again at the forefront of institutions as they head into the year end. Many have books based upon the calendar year and from now through to the end of the year the big movers and shakers will be getting positioned.\r\n\r\nI am still a HUGE believer that Central Bank monetary policy is what primarily moves a currency. I know that within this framework there are a lot of idiosyncratic reasoning behind some moves and that certain personalities believe that policy is more about themselves rather than the country, but overall, in my opinion Central Bank monetary policy is primary.\r\n\r\nBasically, the FED is raising interest rates in the U.S. and the rest are in limbo at best.\r\n\r\nThere will be some very interesting trading conditions ahead but from the way I am looking at this, I need the dust to settle a little at least until I can see a clear shift in sentiment.\r\n\r\nAt the end of the day we could just be retracing technically in the DXY and there is a bear flag formation setting up to move the DXY lower once again inside the longer-term trend.\r\n\r\nI am finding it difficult to get an absolute fix on what is driving the USD and then on top of everything we have the geopolitical tensions. North Korea could raise its head once again as we enter a period of the country’s anniversaries. I noted during the week that TRUMP mentioned that we are now in “The calm before the storm”. In addition, there is the Iran nuclear deal that TRUMP wants to amend or discard (not sure it’s hard to keep up). Both items have enough to reverse the USD move at the drop of a hat.\r\n\r\nThere is a lot to consider if you are not a market scalper or day trader.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nI have finally recorded, changed, updated, re-recorded and finally placed a version of “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE” on my YouTube and Screencast channels.\r\n\r\nIt is essentially for new subscribers to add a little more to a subscription decision other than the written word on my website. I can also use it with some advertising as well. I am never happy with these things and I will no doubt tinker with it moving forward. A couple of segments were re-worked but perhaps still require a little more attention. There comes a point however, that if I do NOT just post it, it may never see the light of day.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a>\r\n\r\nHowever, …\r\n\r\nNot as much luck with my EA’s (Expert Advisors) this week. These algorithms have taken a serious backseat. This coming week is a slack week for economic data so I should get a chance to move forward all things being equal.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:\r\n\r\n</strong><u>2.1: LOOKING BACK AT LAST WEEK’S NEWS.</u></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nOn my God… there is so much I could write about, I will be selective and to the best of my ability concise (Please allow some tolerance I am from Liverpool and I love having this SOAPBOX option).\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP</u></strong><u>: PMi DATA, THE BOE, BREXIT and THERESA MAY’S MELTDOWN.</u>\r\n\r\nHoly shit… there is a book in that heading alone.\r\n\r\nThe PMI data was as predicted in last week’s DRIVE THRU. Manufacturing and Construction to miss and Services to beat.\r\n\r\nOverall the numbers were poor. In fact, Construction came in at 48.1 against 51.1 which placed it in the contraction zone being less than 50.0. Manufacturing recorded 55.9 against 56.7 and Services showed 53.6 versus 53.2.\r\n\r\nFrankly, this data is backward looking but in all honesty in the name of sanity how can the BOE raise rates on these numbers? The numbers are more akin to RATE CUTTING not RATE HIKING.\r\n\r\nOld flip-flopper will be flip flopping in my opinion but he has an out on his side to save face. First, whilst I realise the BOE has a mandate on inflation, second and thirdly, it also must consider economic stability and prevent unnecessary market volatility through uncertainties.\r\n\r\nBREXIT is just a bloody disaster by all accounts. Politicians are fecking useless at negotiation. The UK have put up David Davies a politician against Michel Barnier a “pen pushing jotter blotter” from Brussels who has no accountability to a parliament or voters. Barnier couldn’t give a crap. It’s just a job. Mind you he doesn’t appear to have to do a damn thing anyway, the Brits can’t even get into the starting blocks, absolutely fecking useless numpties.\r\n\r\nThe UK is so bad they are even promoting a “NO DEAL” as the outcome. FFS what a load of crap.\r\n\r\nIf that was not enough…\r\n\r\nTheresa May at the Conservative Party conference in Manchester coughed and spluttered her way through her speech. She even took a cough drop from Chancellor Philip Hammond to try and stop her coughing spasm. At the same time, in the background letters that were obviously stuck to the stage set with double sided tape fell off. The slogan which originally read” Building a country that works for everyone” ended up being “Building a country that works or everyon”. If that weren’t enough she was handed a P45 by a gatecrasher (In the UK you receive this form when you leave your existing job).\r\n\r\nWhat’s the phrase “When shit happens…. shit happens!!”\r\n\r\nShe was praised by her team of her arse-lickers stating that she carried on brilliantly through adversity. However, in the real world the wagons are circling just like in an old John Wayne movie!\r\n\r\nThe speech was low on content. BREXIT has brought the party to a dysfunctional state. The cracks, that were covered in paper after the referendum are widening and the paper cover gone. The word disastrous is being used by many media outlets to describe Theresa May’s performance. Far from rallying the troops she has heightened the differences.\r\n\r\nHer position a Prime Minister and leader of the Conservative Party is hanging by a thread. I believe she will be booted out with little dignity much like the way Maggie was, whilst on a business trip in Paris. It would be better for Theresa May to walk sooner rather than later.\r\n\r\nHaving said that what numpty wants the responsibility of BREXIT? Maybe it’s best to leave her in position, her career is fecked anyway and the BREXIT negotiation disaster can be pinned 100% to her legacy.\r\n\r\nHere’s a point to consider…\r\n\r\nThe UK has done feck all on getting the BREXIT negotiations started. Could there be another referendum with a new leader as the “Unsullied” in the shires think that the Tory government have really fecked up BREXIT so far.\r\n\r\nJust saying and thinking aloud…\r\n\r\nAnyway, enough of that….\r\n\r\nWith regards to the above, Carney in my opinion, has a decent case to say; “Hold on, no rate hike” (even with 3% inflation which he could argue is transitory like all Central bankers do!). I think that there is a chance he could get away with it without being categorized again as a flip flopper. This would apply especially if Theresa May were to resign or be ousted inside the next 2/3 weeks.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>EUR</u></strong><u>: CATALAN, BRUSSELS and the GERMAN ELECTION FALLOUT.</u>\r\n\r\nWTF…\r\n\r\nSome horrible scenes around Barcelona were televised last weekend with voters being dragged, hit, whacked with batons and generally beaten up over simply trying to vote. For those who thought that Spain had come a long way since the Francisco (General) Franco era… think again…. it would appear NOT. Quite a disgrace.\r\n\r\nIn addition, the silence from the rest of the EUROPEAN UNION, BRUSSELS etc. was a shocking display of how a united EUROPE could NEVER happen not in a million years. It was an embarrassment to those who call themselves leaders. The silence to me however spoke louder than any words that politicians could utter.\r\n\r\nWe enter another weekend of probable disturbances as Mariano Rajoy (Spanish Prime Minister) suspends the Catalan Parliament session next Monday in an attempt to block an independence vote taking place in the regional parliament.\r\n\r\nThe Catalan leaders are at a crossroads. Either move forward with declaring independence or try to negotiate a settlement to separate with Madrid.\r\n\r\nThis story has a great deal more left in it, with the King of Spain (Felipe) being accused of being a mouthpiece for the Spanish Government by the Catalan Regional President Carles Puigdemont.\r\n\r\nMeetings are scheduled moving forward through the weekend but I feel that this item has a long, long way still to run before its settled. Already businesses are moving Head Offices out of Catalonia in readiness for the split. It does not seem to have directly affected the single currency that much… weird to me.\r\n\r\nThis is very quiet news…\r\n\r\nAngela Merkel is still busy in the background working away trying to finalize a revised coalition government. This is taking some time and press releases are sparse which, to me indicate issues on agreements. With so many parties involved, the result will be a washed out version on what Merkel campaigned on. Coalitions = weak government.\r\n\r\nI do not believe that this has been factored in at all to the single currency exchange rate. It appears to be in suspended animation mode at the moment. I think that the larger traders are more concerned with the moves from the ECB than anything else.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>AUD</u></strong><u>: RBA RATE STATEMENT, TRADE BALANCE, RETAIL SALES.</u>\r\n\r\nThe RBA is standing firm and frankly looking around at what is going on, strong leadership from Philip Lowe is paying off.\r\n\r\nIn last week’s statement, he stated that high exchange rates would harm the economy and as usual the RBA provided subtle jawboning which has worked.\r\n\r\nDuring the week, the Trade Balance data was good (+0.99BAUD$ against a forecast of +0.88B AUD$), this was counterbalanced at the same time by poor Retail Sales at -0.6% it was worse than last month at -0.2% but the forecast was a +0.3%, the AUD was taken to the woodshed and spanked lower.\r\n\r\nOn Friday, last week RBA member Ian Harper leapt out of the masses to quip that the RBA would cut interest rates if the recent slowdown in the Australian economy worsens.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>CAD</u></strong><u>: TRADE BALANCE and JOBS DATA.</u>\r\n\r\nMore poor data was seen from Canada in the guise of Trade balance numbers that missed expectations (-CAD$3.4B forecast –CAD$2.6B).\r\n\r\nThe USD/CAD was whacked up another cent from 1.2470 to 1.2570 on the back of that data.\r\n\r\nThe jobs data followed 24 hours later and it was a very slight miss at 10k jobs vis-à-vis 12k anticipated. The Unemployment Rate remained at 6.2%, a slight uptick to 6.3% was expected.\r\n\r\nBecause the U.S. data was so erroneous the market struggled to know what to do and how to react and this overrode any logical moves with the CAD directly. Therefore, it basically tread water after the initial market volatility.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD</u></strong><u>: NON-FARM PAYROLLS and ISM PMI data.</u>\r\n\r\nThe number was a negative 33,000 jobs created and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.2%, which is less than pre-the GFC. Average hourly earnings rose to 0.5% from a previous 0.1% and forecasted 0.3%. This was strong.\r\n\r\nThe USD strengthened but did not go hell for leather to break the trading ranges.\r\n\r\nAs I mentioned in last week’s blog even before we were made aware that last week’s numbers would be hard to interpret, given the storms and hurricanes that basically battered the U.S. of late, I was already of the opinion that NFP helping the FED with policy was a non-event. As, in my opinion, the Fed have decided already.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2: LOOKING AHEAD TO THIS COMING WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n2.2.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ECON-DATA-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10155\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ECON-DATA-08102017-1024x674.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"674\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.2: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/TCHART-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10156\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/TCHART-08102017-1024x846.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"846\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.3: USD – TRADING CHARTS and COMMENTARIES: </u>\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>EUR/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/EURUSD-D-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10165\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/EURUSD-D-08102017-1024x483.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"483\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/GBPUSD-D-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10166\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/GBPUSD-D-08102017-1024x483.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"483\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/AUDUSD-D-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10164\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/AUDUSD-D-08102017-1024x483.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"483\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/NZDUSD-D-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10167\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/NZDUSD-D-08102017-1024x483.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"483\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCAD-D-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10168\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCAD-D-08102017-1024x483.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"483\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCHF-D-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10169\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCHF-D-08102017-1024x483.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"483\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDJPY-D-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10170\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDJPY-D-08102017-1024x483.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"483\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.4: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:\r\n\r\n</u>Not a lot this week to choose from at all.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD:</u></strong><u> PPi, RETAIL SALES and CPi INFLATION DATA</u>.\r\n\r\nI would never be-little the power of inflation data for an economy. It obviously takes on greater importance when the U.S. economy is involved, as this data represents such a vital barometer for sentiment moving forward. However, without wanting to sound as complacent and blasé as the markets are to data releases, I do think whilst these numbers are interesting to read from a trending perspective, from a FED viewpoint I do not think they are going to matter unless they miss by 5% or greater… something mind blowing off forecast is what I mean.\r\n\r\nThe FED has made its mind up vis-à-vis an interest rate move higher in December.\r\n\r\nThe FX market being a future pricing mechanism based primarily off Central Bank Monetary Policy will be baking this into pricing as we move closer to the December FED meeting on the 12th and 13th, with the announcement due on the 13th December 2017 at 2PM EST.\r\n\r\nBack to economic data…\r\n\r\nLast time around, everything was positive 0.2% - 0.4% except for Retail Sales which posted a poor -0.2% number.\r\n\r\nThis time the forecasts show basically an improvement across the board with Retail Sales expected at 1.5%. We are dealing with the ultimate consumer society in the world. The biggest economy in the world. The forecasts should be a piece of piss.\r\n\r\nAlways expected the unexpected.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.5: HOW TO PLAY THE MARKET THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\nThere is not a lot of data due this week and as such we will be captives to the movements in equities, securities and commodities.\r\n\r\nI do not think I would get much disagreement when I say almost since TRUMP was inaugurated the market has been more headline news driven that anything else.\r\n\r\nI think that I am alone with these thoughts as I do NOT find this market easy and I am struggling to get the reasoning behind moves and finding traction with direction and trade set ups is a little more difficult than usual.\r\n\r\nThis makes trading more of a gamble than a well thought out reasoned strategy or TRADE PLAN. For traders with more than a 60-minute trading horizon this brings a raft of issues into play that the scalpers of this world do not have to consider.\r\n\r\nWe have considerable heightened geopolitical news hovering around us with regards to “Little Rocket Man” and the Iran nuclear deal review.\r\n\r\nIt would very easy and glib to say just be careful trading this week. It would be accurate but a bit wishy-washy.\r\n\r\nThe USD weakened into the close last Friday, I see this as purely positioning as frankly no-one would really want to be heavy into being long the USD into the weekend with all the geopolitical risk being about.\r\n\r\nWe are in ranges at the moment that last week’s NFP could not break and whilst some individual pairs cut extremes (GBP/USD &amp; AUD/USD), the EUR/USD held above 1.1660 which, I think is significant.\r\n\r\nMore detail of my thoughts and ideas will appear for PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers as I add back trade set ups at the start of this week’s trading through Monday / Tuesday.\r\n\r\nFrom a general perspective, a lot depends on the news.\r\n\r\nTherefore, the only logical guide to present here would be to trade smaller sized positions. I expect a chop fest with no real overall direction, although, I do think that the chances of the USD breaking much higher will be limited unless a significant break past the 94.00 (DXY) the 23.6% retracement of the TRUMP inauguration move. If we break through 94.00 then the 95.86 (38.2%) would be in view, but in my opinion unless TRUMP has some significant “wins” I think the DXY moves lower with the trend and the USD takes another hit.\r\n\r\nTherefore…\r\n\r\nPlay the waiting game to see the reaction on Monday after NFP has been digested thru all markets. Try and get a confirmation of the bigger move before pulling the trigger.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is my own subscriber based Forex support service that offers subscribers my suggested trade set-ups and market commentaries.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting the HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE tab.\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT 2017 PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nOCTOBER 2017 TO DATE:           +481 net pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE 2017:                    +7,987 net pips\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs on my website  <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS ONLY:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4.1: TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>4.2: SENTIMENT CHART,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:\r\n</u><u>\r\n</u><u>4.3: EXISTING CORE TRADES (PLANS &amp; STRATEGIES):</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.4: CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.5: FX BROKER NEWS with their MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FINISHING LINE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5.1: WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you have read in this blog and would like the chance to win a FREE SUBSCRIPTION valued at CAD$150.00, all you should do is subscribe to my FREE NEWSLETTER (this blog), by adding your email address on my welcome page just below my cube logo at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\n<u>5.2: PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTIONS:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you’ve read in this blog and should you want to go a stage further and subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE. This can be done on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the Tab SUBSCRIBE HERE.\r\n\r\nSubscribing to the PREMIUM SERVICE is not just about receiving a larger “DRIVE THRU” blog packed with more trading supporting information, my thoughts and ideas. There is much more to a subscription than those things. Check it all out under the tab HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3: CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\n\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #254 FREE NEWSLETTER\r\n8th October 2017\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','UK RATE HIKE IN THE BALANCE?','','inherit','closed','closed','','10180-revision-v1','','','2017-10-07 10:17:01','2017-10-07 15:17:01','',10180,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/10180-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(11090,1,'2018-03-03 06:48:45','2018-03-03 11:48:45','&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong> THE FIRST SHOT:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nWelcome to the month of March.\r\n\r\nThe name of the month may have changed but the geopolitical and economic concerns that could send the FX market into either a tailspin or the ultimate short squeeze are still hanging over us like the “Sword of Damocles”.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>ITALIAN ELECTIONS – COALITION PARTNERS UNCERTAINTY</li>\r\n 	<li>GERMANY - SPD PARTY VOTES ON COALITION DEAL with CDU</li>\r\n 	<li>BREXIT – EU &amp; UK IN GAME OF “HIGH STAKES CHICKEN”</li>\r\n 	<li>TRUMP – KICKING OFF A GLOBAL TRADE WAR</li>\r\n 	<li>JEROME POWELL – FED RATE HIKES in 2018</li>\r\n 	<li>US 10YR YIELDS if BREAK THROUGH 3% sets up 4.5%</li>\r\n 	<li>BOJ – CHANGE IN MONETARY POLICY RE QQE in 2019?</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nHappy days... It’s all good fun and it ensures that we remain vigilant whilst staring at our trading screens.\r\n\r\nI have often said jokingly to friends that trading Forex one has to “Rub your tummy and scratch your head both at the same time” just to keep up at times, and what fascinates me most about trading currencies is that when you look at the list above, some are currency positive, some are currency negative. It is the inter-market reactions and correlations that keep you on your toes. Even more so at the moment as many correlations are “off” and correlations “do matter” when trading currencies.\r\n\r\nSo, it looks like there will be some fun ahead this week and when you add into the mix a full range of economic data releases as well, such as U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls, ECB Press Conference and Policy decisions, BOJ, RBA and BOC interest rate decisions and Central Bank statements, plus CAD jobs and Trade Balance and AUD Retail Sales, GDP and Trade Balance, it is set up to be a week of potential volatility.\r\n\r\nLet me make a bit of an understatement.... this week is a big week for data and reactions to geopolitical events.... no kidding!\r\n\r\nIf you are new to the FX market, this week could be one to sit back and merely just observe the price action.\r\n\r\nFinally, in this section...\r\n\r\nI think that in the last 12 months I have written or mentioned crypto currencies only once and that was in section 5, which only PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers see. I was asked a question during the week as to why I do not talk about them?\r\n\r\nMy answer is very easy and clear.\r\n\r\nUntil they are fully regulated and safe to trade, I am not interested.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong> MARKET OVERVIEW – MY THOUGHTS:</strong></span><strong> </strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>BREXIT AT A “MEXICAN STANDOFF”</strong></span></p>\r\nNow...\r\n\r\nWithout looking like I have read the book “THE ART OF THE DEAL”, I have to say that UK Prime Minister May’s fourth “APRES BREXIT” speech last Friday ticked lots of the boxes. Whilst the speech was just as much a speech to appeal to Conservative Party unity, it was also conciliatory for the EU in that she did NOT threaten to stamp her feet and walk away.\r\n\r\nWhether you rate Theresa May’s leadership or not, the speech hit every note that needed to be hit. She has to do this in my opinion.... why?\r\n\r\nNothing new here I’m afraid, it’s all to do with BREXIT CONTAGION.\r\n\r\nThe facts are very simple. The EU has as much, if not some would say, more to lose than the UK when the BREXIT finally happens.\r\n\r\nKeeping this very simple and straightforward, both the UK and the EU have lots to lose if they do not maintain equitable trade relations.\r\n\r\nIf the BREXIT agreement is seen as a “GOOD DEAL” to leave the EU, the fear from the EU is that the current EU27 (the number of countries currently members of the EUROPEAN UNION), could reduce to the EU25 or EU22... pick your own number.\r\n\r\nThe EU negotiating team led my Michel Barnier (Presently French Politician, ex. European Commissioner for Internal Market and Services 2010-2014) and supported by the likes of Donald Tusk (currently President of the European council and ex. Prime Minister of Poland) and Jean Claude Junker (President of the European commission and Luxembourg politician), are maintaining a HARD-RED LINE to demonstrate that, leaving the EU should be no “Bed of Roses”.\r\n\r\nThe simple facts are though, from my perspective that since the vote was taken via referendum to leave the EU by the UK voters in June 2016, very little appears to have happened by way of actually leaving.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/BREXIT-TIMELINE-03032018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-11071\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/BREXIT-TIMELINE-03032018-985x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"985\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nFrom the chart above, basically following the trigger of Article 50 in March 2017 (a year ago) from my perspective it’s been a game of “HIGH STAKES CHICKEN” and a “MEXICAN STANDOFF” has taking hold. Neither side after stating their positions has really budged. You have to bear in mind, politicians rarely answer questions they state positions and all the major negotiators in the BREXIT from both sides are politicians at source.\r\n\r\nIn the past week both sides have literally regurgitated their positions under the pretext of breaking speeches important to the BREXIT negotiations.\r\n\r\nWill the negotiators meet the October deadline this year for a deal to be ratified by the EU27? The UK BREXIT date is 29<sup>th</sup> March 2019 at 23.00 CET.\r\n\r\nOK, so what has been done apart from both sides expelling a lot of hot air?\r\n\r\nThe EU Withdrawal Bill, which is intended to convert all existing EU laws into UK law to ensure there are no gaps in legislation on BREXIT day, has had two readings in the House of Commons and passed, however, it is now in the House of Lords who have said basically that it needs to be re-written!\r\n\r\nSo that\'s not much progress at all unless the re-writes can find support back in front of MP’s when it is pushed back and amended. It will require a commons committee to co-ordinate amendments. This will make it close to deadline day for signing into law, assuming that the “Lords” like the new wording and can ratify the paper on time and not create delays!\r\n\r\nThe sticking points seem to be only: -\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>CITIZENS RIGHTS - The ECJ (The European Court of Justice):It’s all about the role it plays in protecting the rights of EU citizens living and working in the UK following BREXIT. The hardline BREXIT MP’s say that regaining sovereignty means removing the UK from the meddling by EU judges. The UK has the same issues for British ex pats living around the EU.\r\n\r\nThis is a biggie. The EU does not want the UK meddling in its courts and vice-versa.</li>\r\n 	<li>The IRISH BORDER:Maybe a little naïve on my part but I thought this would not be a problem when heads were smacked together. I thought “Take a look at Switzerland”; which is not in the EU, you can drive in and out of Switzerland from Germany, France or Italy. There are no hard borders. Am I over simplifying this issue?\r\n\r\nThe trade agreement with Switzerland accommodates NO HARD BORDER.</li>\r\n 	<li>The DIVORCE BILL:The settlement amount to be paid by the UK to exit the EU has varied tremendously depending upon who is talking at the time and from which side of the negotiating table. It is now believed to be in the region €60 Billion (£50 Billion).\r\n\r\nThere are many people who say “BOLLOCKS, the UK has paid enough just walk away”. I hear these comments but from the UK government perspective, the BREXIT bill is really the price to pay for a future trade deal. From the EU perspective it is all about settling past debts (EU Staff pension, loan guarantees and aid scheme contributions such as Syrian refugees etc.)</li>\r\n 	<li>TRADE DEAL &amp; THE CUSTOMS UNION:This is at the centre of the debate at the moment the UK opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn wants a customs union. This basically would keep the UK in a “FREE TRADE ZONE”. Internally, the “zone” is free of tariffs, which are only charged at the “zones” point of entry.\r\n\r\nBy the letter, as far as I can see BREXIT = leaving the customs union. I therefore cannot understand how in the name of sanity Corbyn can adopt such a stance without going against the “will” of the people? On top of this minor point... the EU would view this as pure cherry picking and frankly unrealistic, more like political posturing than anything else.\r\n\r\nTheresa May outlined a proposal last Friday on trade, confirming the exit of the customs union but proposed having an associate status to charge and forward EU receipts and add any UK costs as items enter the ”zone”. Hmmn...Jeremy Corbyn revisited?\r\n\r\nThis is a massive area not just to get an agreement, but jobs and manufacturing businesses in both the UK and EU rest on this outcome. This will require huge debate between the UK and EU negotiators.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNow, there may be more sticking points, but these are the 4 that continue to resonate with me over and over again vis-à-vis the BREXIT negotiations.\r\n\r\nObviously, the UK position is to “Cherry Pick” and the EU position is to ensure the UK does not.\r\n\r\nThe next deadline is October this year, when there is a deadline for the deal to be completed.\r\n\r\nI still have my doubts that this timeline can be agreed. The UK will want a blanket agreement in order that it can have some flexibility in the future, to deal with potential one-off cases that could be missed during the negotiations. The EU has Brussels; Brussels is non-elected, full of expense drive bureaucrats, who’s existence is justified and possibly measured on how many i’s and t’s can be dotted and crossed.\r\n\r\nWe appear to have a “MEXICAN STANDOFF” both sides are more than happy to state their positions. As mentioned earlier, this is what politicians do. Whilst this can be viewing as amusing to some people, the clock is ticking away in the background.\r\n\r\nObviously, both sides will yield some ground in order to get an agreement, what the final draft looks like, who knows at this stage.\r\n\r\nFrom a trading perspective the continued uncertainty is weighing on the GBP but not EUR, which I admit surprises me a little. As I have said of late cross-rates offer the best opportunities and given TRUMP’s latest moves on tariffs, maybe staying away from the USD is also not a bad idea!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>USD SUPPORT and RESISTANCE with my BIAS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/TCHART-03032018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-11078\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/TCHART-03032018-1024x894.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"894\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE PREMIUM SERVICE TRADING SUMMARY:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\n(Incorporating the last 5 PREMIUM SERVICE TRADES)\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/PS-SUMMARY-03032018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-11077\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/PS-SUMMARY-03032018-1024x869.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"869\" /></a>\r\n\r\nYou can get on board and join from as little as CAD$10 for 10 days and then CAD$150.00 per month, currency conversions for CAD$150 are roughly as follows: -\r\n\r\nGBP £90 per month\r\nEUR €100 per month\r\nUSD $120 per month\r\nJPY 12,700 per month\r\nAUD $150 per month\r\n\r\nThis represents a great value way to subscribe…  and a great RISK / REWARD!\r\n\r\nMoving on...\r\n\r\n<a href=\"mailto:d*****@gmail.com\">d*****@gmail.com</a> has won the monthly draw for a FREE 30-DAY subscription to the PREMIUM SERVICE. By the time this blog is posted hopefully he or she will be fully equipped with all the supporting data and ready to receive!\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Still more about THE PREMIUM SERVICE this week...</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">PREMIUM SERVICE – FEBRUARY 2108:\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE generated a total of 2,414 net pips, taking the year to date number to 3,892 pips.\r\n78% of trades in February made $$$\r\n22% of trades in February lost $$$\r\nYear to date it\'s a 74% / 26% ratio\r\nIn comparison to 2017, the PREMIUM SERVICE is 3,145 pips ahead of the year to date performance at the same time.</p>\r\nThe spreadsheet below shows you the potential earnings that were made in February and the year to date based upon being a trader who trades single or 5 lots of either MICRO, MINI or STANDARD size.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/PREMIUM-SERVICE-PERF.-JAN-FEB-2018.jpg\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-11065\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/PREMIUM-SERVICE-PERF.-JAN-FEB-2018-1024x829.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"829\" /></a>\r\n\r\nAs you can see from the spreadsheet above ALL types of traders even single micro lot traders would be positive after the first two months this year. Being realistic, I would NOT expect single micro lot traders to benefit much in a full year, but it does show that risking just $0.10 per trade can generate an income.\r\n\r\nFrom a longer-term perspective my thoughts are along the lines that from 5 x micro lots upwards, risking a minimum of just $0.50 cents per trade will generate a small positive income after costs. There are obviously no guarantees with income, I cannot guarantee this and as you know you trade with RISK. However, with managed RISK there are opportunities for micro lot traders.\r\n\r\nMoving up the scale single mini lot ($1.00 per trade) traders and above have since 2014 been able to generate a net income after costs have been applied and although there are still RISKS, again with RISK MANAGEMENT these RISKS can be managed.\r\n\r\nThe bottom line is that since 2014 the PREMIUM SERVICE has been profitable.\r\n\r\nTherefore...\r\n\r\nI am obviously delighted, over the moon, a happy bunny, you use whatever phrase or terminology you prefer but to say that 2018 has started with a bang is the second understatement I have made in this blog so far!\r\n\r\nYou can subscribe for periods as well. Go to my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> for more details under the TAB – “SUBSCRIBE HERE”.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(This section is for PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS ONLY)\r\n\r\n<u>5.1. TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.2. SENTIMENT,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3. THE WEEK AHEAD:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.1. ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES THAT INTEREST ME:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.2. MY KEY EVENTS ON THIS WEEK’S CALENDAR AND WHY:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.3. HOW I WILL APPROACH and TRADE THE MARKET THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.4. MY “MACRO” TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEK AHEAD:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.4. CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.4.1. CURRENT LIVE TRADES:\r\n</u>\r\n<u>5.4.2. CURRENT LIMIT ORDER TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.5. FX BROKER NEWS and MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE FINAL SHOT:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #272 FREE NEWSLETTER\r\nDATE: 3<sup>rd</sup> March 2018','BREXIT AT A “MEXICAN STANDOFF”','','inherit','closed','closed','','11087-revision-v1','','','2018-03-03 06:48:45','2018-03-03 11:48:45','',11087,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/11087-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(11088,1,'2018-03-03 06:37:21','2018-03-03 11:37:21','&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong> THE FIRST SHOT:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nWelcome to the month of March.\r\n\r\nThe name of the month may have changed but the geopolitical and economic concerns that could send the FX market into either a tailspin or the ultimate short squeeze are still hanging over us like the “Sword of Damocles”.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>ITALIAN ELECTIONS – COALITION PARTNERS UNCERTAINTY</li>\r\n 	<li>GERMANY - SPD PARTY VOTES ON COALITION DEAL with CDU</li>\r\n 	<li>BREXIT – EU &amp; UK IN GAME OF “HIGH STAKES CHICKEN”</li>\r\n 	<li>TRUMP – KICKING OFF A GLOBAL TRADE WAR</li>\r\n 	<li>JEROME POWELL – FED RATE HIKES in 2018</li>\r\n 	<li>US 10YR YIELDS if BREAK THROUGH 3% sets up 4.5%</li>\r\n 	<li>BOJ – CHANGE IN MONETARY POLICY RE QQE in 2019?</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nHappy days... It’s all good fun and it ensures that we remain vigilant whilst staring at our trading screens.\r\n\r\nI have often said jokingly to friends that trading Forex one has to “Rub your tummy and scratch your head both at the same time” just to keep up at times, and what fascinates me most about trading currencies is that when you look at the list above, some are currency positive, some are currency negative. It is the inter-market reactions and correlations that keep you on your toes. Even more so at the moment as many correlations are “off” and correlations “do matter” when trading currencies.\r\n\r\nSo, it looks like there will be some fun ahead this week and when you add into the mix a full range of economic data releases as well, such as U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls, ECB Press Conference and Policy decisions, BOJ, RBA and BOC interest rate decisions and Central Bank statements, plus CAD jobs and Trade Balance and AUD Retail Sales, GDP and Trade Balance, it is set up to be a week of potential volatility.\r\n\r\nLet me make a bit of an understatement.... this week is a big week for data and reactions to geopolitical events.... no kidding!\r\n\r\nIf you are new to the FX market, this week could be one to sit back and merely just observe the price action.\r\n\r\nFinally, in this section...\r\n\r\nI think that in the last 12 months I have written or mentioned crypto currencies only once and that was in section 5, which only PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers see. I was asked a question during the week as to why I do not talk about them?\r\n\r\nMy answer is very easy and clear.\r\n\r\nUntil they are fully regulated and safe to trade, I am not interested.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong> MARKET OVERVIEW – MY THOUGHTS:</strong></span><strong> </strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>BREXIT AT A “MEXICAN STANDOFF”</strong></span></p>\r\nNow...\r\n\r\nWithout looking like I have read the book “THE ART OF THE DEAL”, I have to say that UK Prime Minister May’s fourth “APRES BREXIT” speech last Friday ticked lots of the boxes. Whilst the speech was just as much a speech to appeal to Conservative Party unity, it was also conciliatory for the EU in that she did NOT threaten to stamp her feet and walk away.\r\n\r\nWhether you rate Theresa May’s leadership or not, the speech hit every note that needed to be hit. She has to do this in my opinion.... why?\r\n\r\nNothing new here I’m afraid, it’s all to do with BREXIT CONTAGION.\r\n\r\nThe facts are very simple. The EU has as much, if not some would say, more to lose than the UK when the BREXIT finally happens.\r\n\r\nKeeping this very simple and straightforward, both the UK and the EU have lots to lose if they do not maintain equitable trade relations.\r\n\r\nIf the BREXIT agreement is seen as a “GOOD DEAL” to leave the EU, the fear from the EU is that the current EU27 (the number of countries currently members of the EUROPEAN UNION), could reduce to the EU25 or EU22... pick your own number.\r\n\r\nThe EU negotiating team led my Michel Barnier (Presently French Politician, ex. European Commissioner for Internal Market and Services 2010-2014) and supported by the likes of Donald Tusk (currently President of the European council and ex. Prime Minister of Poland) and Jean Claude Junker (President of the European commission and Luxembourg politician), are maintaining a HARD-RED LINE to demonstrate that, leaving the EU should be no “Bed of Roses”.\r\n\r\nThe simple facts are though, from my perspective that since the vote was taken via referendum to leave the EU by the UK voters in June 2016, very little appears to have happened by way of actually leaving.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/BREXIT-TIMELINE-03032018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-11071\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/BREXIT-TIMELINE-03032018-985x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"985\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nFrom the chart above, basically following the trigger of Article 50 in March 2017 (a year ago) from my perspective it’s been a game of “HIGH STAKES CHICKEN” and a “MEXICAN STANDOFF” has taking hold. Neither side after stating their positions has really budged. You have to bear in mind, politicians rarely answer questions they state positions and all the major negotiators in the BREXIT from both sides are politicians at source.\r\n\r\nIn the past week both sides have literally regurgitated their positions under the pretext of breaking speeches important to the BREXIT negotiations.\r\n\r\nWill the negotiators meet the October deadline this year for a deal to be ratified by the EU27? The UK BREXIT date is 29<sup>th</sup> March 2019 at 23.00 CET.\r\n\r\nOK, so what has been done apart from both sides expelling a lot of hot air?\r\n\r\nThe EU Withdrawal Bill, which is intended to convert all existing EU laws into UK law to ensure there are no gaps in legislation on BREXIT day, has had two readings in the House of Commons and passed, however, it is now in the House of Lords who have said basically that it needs to be re-written!\r\n\r\nSo that\'s not much progress at all unless the re-writes can find support back in front of MP’s when it is pushed back and amended. It will require a commons committee to co-ordinate amendments. This will make it close to deadline day for signing into law, assuming that the “Lords” like the new wording and can ratify the paper on time and not create delays!\r\n\r\nThe sticking points seem to be only: -\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>CITIZENS RIGHTS - The ECJ (The European Court of Justice):\r\n\r\nIt’s all about the role it plays in protecting the rights of EU citizens living and working in the UK following BREXIT. The hardline BREXIT MP’s say that regaining sovereignty means removing the UK from the meddling by EU judges. The UK has the same issues for British ex pats living around the EU.\r\n\r\nThis is a biggie. The EU does not want the UK meddling in its courts and vice-versa.</li>\r\n 	<li>The IRISH BORDER:\r\n\r\nMaybe a little naïve on my part but I thought this would not be a problem when heads were smacked together. I thought “Take a look at Switzerland”; which is not in the EU, you can drive in and out of Switzerland from Germany, France or Italy. There are no hard borders. Am I over simplifying this issue?\r\n\r\nThe trade agreement with Switzerland accommodates NO HARD BORDER.</li>\r\n 	<li>The DIVORCE BILL:\r\n\r\nThe settlement amount to be paid by the UK to exit the EU has varied tremendously depending upon who is talking at the time and from which side of the negotiating table. It is now believed to be in the region €60 Billion (£50 Billion).\r\n\r\nThere are many people who say “BOLLOCKS, the UK has paid enough just walk away”. I hear these comments but from the UK government perspective, the BREXIT bill is really the price to pay for a future trade deal. From the EU perspective it is all about settling past debts (EU Staff pension, loan guarantees and aid scheme contributions such as Syrian refugees etc.)</li>\r\n 	<li>TRADE DEAL &amp; THE CUSTOMS UNION:\r\n\r\nThis is at the centre of the debate at the moment the UK opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn wants a customs union. This basically would keep the UK in a “FREE TRADE ZONE”. Internally, the “zone” is free of tariffs, which are only charged at the “zones” point of entry.\r\n\r\nBy the letter, as far as I can see BREXIT = leaving the customs union. I therefore cannot understand how in the name of sanity Corbyn can adopt such a stance without going against the “will” of the people? On top of this minor point... the EU would view this as pure cherry picking and frankly unrealistic, more like political posturing than anything else.\r\n\r\nTheresa May outlined a proposal last Friday on trade, confirming the exit of the customs union but proposed having an associate status to charge and forward EU receipts and add any UK costs as items enter the ”zone”. Hmmn...Jeremy Corbyn revisited?\r\n\r\nThis is a massive area not just to get an agreement, but jobs and manufacturing businesses in both the UK and EU rest on this outcome. This will require huge debate between the UK and EU negotiators.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNow, there may be more sticking points, but these are the 4 that continue to resonate with me over and over again vis-à-vis the BREXIT negotiations.\r\n\r\nObviously, the UK position is to “Cherry Pick” and the EU position is to ensure the UK does not.\r\n\r\nThe next deadline is October this year, when there is a deadline for the deal to be completed.\r\n\r\nI still have my doubts that this timeline can be agreed. The UK will want a blanket agreement in order that it can have some flexibility in the future, to deal with potential one-off cases that could be missed during the negotiations. The EU has Brussels; Brussels is non-elected, full of expense drive bureaucrats, who’s existence is justified and possibly measured on how many i’s and t’s can be dotted and crossed.\r\n\r\nWe appear to have a “MEXICAN STANDOFF” both sides are more than happy to state their positions. As mentioned earlier, this is what politicians do. Whilst this can be viewing as amusing to some people, the clock is ticking away in the background.\r\n\r\nObviously, both sides will yield some ground in order to get an agreement, what the final draft looks like, who knows at this stage.\r\n\r\nFrom a trading perspective the continued uncertainty is weighing on the GBP but not EUR, which I admit surprises me a little. As I have said of late cross-rates offer the best opportunities and given TRUMP’s latest moves on tariffs, maybe staying away from the USD is also not a bad idea!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>USD SUPPORT and RESISTANCE with my BIAS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/TCHART-03032018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-11078\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/TCHART-03032018-1024x894.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"894\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE PREMIUM SERVICE TRADING SUMMARY:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:</u>\r\n\r\n(Incorporating the last 5 PREMIUM SERVICE TRADES)\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/PS-SUMMARY-03032018.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-11077\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/PS-SUMMARY-03032018-1024x869.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"869\" /></a>\r\n\r\nYou can get on board and join from as little as CAD$10 for 10 days and then CAD$150.00 per month, currency conversions for CAD$150 are roughly as follows: -\r\n\r\nGBP £90 per month\r\nEUR €100 per month\r\nUSD $120 per month\r\nJPY 12,700 per month\r\nAUD $150 per month\r\n\r\nThis represents a great value way to subscribe…  and a great RISK / REWARD!\r\n\r\nMoving on...\r\n\r\n<a href=\"mailto:d*****@gmail.com\">d*****@gmail.com</a> has won the monthly draw for a FREE 30-DAY subscription to the PREMIUM SERVICE. By the time this blog is posted hopefully he or she will be fully equipped with all the supporting data and ready to receive!\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Still more about THE PREMIUM SERVICE this week...</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">PREMIUM SERVICE – FEBRUARY 2108:\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE generated a total of 2,414 net pips, taking the year to date number to 3,892 pips.\r\n78% of trades in February made $$$\r\n22% of trades in February lost $$$\r\nYear to date it\'s a 74% / 26% ratio\r\nIn comparison to 2017, the PREMIUM SERVICE is 3,145 pips ahead of the year to date performance at the same time.</p>\r\nThe spreadsheet below shows you the potential earnings that were made in February and the year to date based upon being a trader who trades single or 5 lots of either MICRO, MINI or STANDARD size.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/PREMIUM-SERVICE-PERF.-JAN-FEB-2018.jpg\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-11065\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/PREMIUM-SERVICE-PERF.-JAN-FEB-2018-1024x829.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"829\" /></a>\r\n\r\nAs you can see from the spreadsheet above ALL types of traders even single micro lot traders would be positive after the first two months this year. Being realistic, I would NOT expect single micro lot traders to benefit much in a full year, but it does show that risking just $0.10 per trade can generate an income.\r\n\r\nFrom a longer-term perspective my thoughts are along the lines that from 5 x micro lots upwards, risking a minimum of just $0.50 cents per trade will generate a small positive income after costs. There are obviously no guarantees with income, I cannot guarantee this and as you know you trade with RISK. However, with managed RISK there are opportunities for micro lot traders.\r\n\r\nMoving up the scale single mini lot ($1.00 per trade) traders and above have since 2014 been able to generate a net income after costs have been applied and although there are still RISKS, again with RISK MANAGEMENT these RISKS can be managed.\r\n\r\nThe bottom line is that since 2014 the PREMIUM SERVICE has been profitable.\r\n\r\nTherefore...\r\n\r\nI am obviously delighted, over the moon, a happy bunny, you use whatever phrase or terminology you prefer but to say that 2018 has started with a bang is the second understatement I have made in this blog so far!\r\n\r\nYou can subscribe for periods as well. Go to my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> for more details under the TAB – “SUBSCRIBE HERE”.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(This section is for PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS ONLY)\r\n\r\n<u>5.1. TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.2. SENTIMENT,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>\r\n</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3. THE WEEK AHEAD:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.1. ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES THAT INTEREST ME:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.2. MY KEY EVENTS ON THIS WEEK’S CALENDAR AND WHY:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.3. HOW I WILL APPROACH and TRADE THE MARKET THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3.4. MY “MACRO” TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEK AHEAD:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.4. CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.4.1. CURRENT LIVE TRADES:\r\n</u>\r\n<u>5.4.2. CURRENT LIMIT ORDER TRADES:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>5.5. FX BROKER NEWS and MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n 	<li><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>THE FINAL SHOT:</strong></span></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #272 FREE NEWSLETTER\r\nDATE: 3<sup>rd</sup> March 2018','BREXIT AT A “MEXICAN STANDOFF”','','inherit','closed','closed','','11087-revision-v1','','','2018-03-03 06:37:21','2018-03-03 11:37:21','',11087,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/11087-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0);
INSERT INTO `wp_posts` VALUES (10193,1,'2017-10-08 09:55:22','2017-10-08 14:55:22','&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a lot to talk about last week, it is difficult to know exactly where to focus first.  However, that is for a little later in the blog.\r\n\r\nThe USD got its mojo back last week in some style. I am still struggling to find reasons to be long the USD. Of late data has started to be the right side of “mixed” to support a move higher in the DXY, the PMi data was good. In addition, the recent FED speak has been very HAWKISH in tone. See the chart below (The chart does contain a few additional thoughts).\r\n\r\nOverall though I think that maybe it\'s the fact that the market is starting to believe that regardless “of whatever”, Yellen is leaving her position as FED CHAIR next February with another rate hike in her purse?\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/DXY-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10154\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/DXY-08102017-1024x497.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"497\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nHowever, this is my piece du résistance on the matter of recent USD (DXY) strength.\r\n\r\nI have a thought process along these lines….\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>The FED is raising rates come what may.</li>\r\n 	<li>The BOE has real dilemmas to face.Theresa May’s longevity as Prime Minister. She could be removed as Tory leader before I complete this blog!\r\n\r\nBREXIT negotiations are pretty much a shambles. The “No Deal” scenario is openly discussed more and more. If May is “kicked out” another timeline vacuum ensues and this results in additional pressure on the exit deadline.\r\n\r\nThe recent PMi data was basically poor…well really CRAP. The UK economy is declining and it will only get worse before it stands a chance of getting better.\r\n\r\n3% inflation or not. I just think it\'s a suicide mission on the UK economy to raise rates with so much uncertainty.</li>\r\n 	<li>The ECB governing council are basically crapping the bed about tapering and a timetable announcement of returning to an interest rate normalization policy. The latest meeting minutes included commentary like:“HIGHLY ACCOMODATIVE UNDER ALL SCENARIOS”\r\n“SUBSTANTIAL STIMULUS STILL NEEDED”\r\n“CONCERNS ABOUT CURRENCY VOLATILITY AND EURO RISE” “MUST BE MINDFUL OF MARKET EXPECTATIONS ON FUTURE POLICY”\r\n\r\nI would define this as not quite sure and uncertainty!</li>\r\n 	<li>RBA was playing stick. Not looking to move away from being accommodative / supportive. Then like a “bolt from the blue” out comes RBA board member Ian Harper who quipped that if the Australian was to worsen the RBA has NOT ruled out an interest rate cut.Well, in all honesty. That is normal. It’s what a Central bank does in its normal course of day-to-day business. However it is usually done on a nod and a wink basis, not in font size 72 to the media… interesting. This comment came after two bloody awful months of Retail Sales data.</li>\r\n 	<li>RBNZ has recently stated that it is remaining accommodative for an extended period.</li>\r\n 	<li>BOC, Stephen Poloz is being cagey on what the BOC will do next after two recent rate hikes. The recent run of data has been disappointing. Of all the Central Banks except the Fed I still think that the BOC will raise rates if only to curb house prices and personal debt borrowing in Canada.</li>\r\n 	<li>SNB and BOJ remain unchanged, interfering if required and accommodative for generations to come!</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nSimply put, the divergence of Central Bank policy is once again at the forefront of institutions as they head into the year end. Many have books based upon the calendar year and from now through to the end of the year the big movers and shakers will be getting positioned.\r\n\r\nI am still a HUGE believer that Central Bank monetary policy is what primarily moves a currency. I know that within this framework there are a lot of idiosyncratic reasoning behind some moves and that certain personalities believe that policy is more about themselves rather than the country, but overall, in my opinion Central Bank monetary policy is primary.\r\n\r\nBasically, the FED is raising interest rates in the U.S. and the rest are in limbo at best.\r\n\r\nThere will be some very interesting trading conditions ahead but from the way I am looking at this, I need the dust to settle a little at least until I can see a clear shift in sentiment.\r\n\r\nAt the end of the day we could just be retracing technically in the DXY and there is a bear flag formation setting up to move the DXY lower once again inside the longer-term trend.\r\n\r\nI am finding it difficult to get an absolute fix on what is driving the USD and then on top of everything we have the geopolitical tensions. North Korea could raise its head once again as we enter a period of the country’s anniversaries. I noted during the week that TRUMP mentioned that we are now in “The calm before the storm”. In addition, there is the Iran nuclear deal that TRUMP wants to amend or discard (not sure it’s hard to keep up). Both items have enough to reverse the USD move at the drop of a hat.\r\n\r\nThere is a lot to consider if you are not a market scalper or day trader.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nI have finally recorded, changed, updated, re-recorded and finally placed a version of “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE” on my YouTube and Screencast channels.\r\n\r\nIt is essentially for new subscribers to add a little more to a subscription decision other than the written word on my website. I can also use it with some advertising as well. I am never happy with these things and I will no doubt tinker with it moving forward. A couple of segments were re-worked but perhaps still require a little more attention. There comes a point however, that if I do NOT just post it, it may never see the light of day.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a>\r\n\r\nHowever, …\r\n\r\nNot as much luck with my EA’s (Expert Advisors) this week. These algorithms have taken a serious backseat. This coming week is a slack week for economic data so I should get a chance to move forward all things being equal.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong></strong><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong>&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.1: LOOKING BACK AT LAST WEEK’S NEWS.</u></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nOn my God… there is so much I could write about, I will be selective and to the best of my ability concise (Please allow some tolerance I am from Liverpool and I love having this SOAPBOX option).\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP</u></strong><u>: PMi DATA, THE BOE, BREXIT and THERESA MAY’S MELTDOWN.</u>\r\n\r\nHoly shit… there is a book in that heading alone.\r\n\r\nThe PMI data was as predicted in last week’s DRIVE THRU. Manufacturing and Construction to miss and Services to beat.\r\n\r\nOverall the numbers were poor. In fact, Construction came in at 48.1 against 51.1 which placed it in the contraction zone being less than 50.0. Manufacturing recorded 55.9 against 56.7 and Services showed 53.6 versus 53.2.\r\n\r\nFrankly, this data is backward looking but in all honesty in the name of sanity how can the BOE raise rates on these numbers? The numbers are more akin to RATE CUTTING not RATE HIKING.\r\n\r\nOld flip-flopper will be flip flopping in my opinion but he has an out on his side to save face. First, whilst I realise the BOE has a mandate on inflation, second and thirdly, it also must consider economic stability and prevent unnecessary market volatility through uncertainties.\r\n\r\nBREXIT is just a bloody disaster by all accounts. Politicians are fecking useless at negotiation. The UK have put up David Davies a politician against Michel Barnier a “pen pushing jotter blotter” from Brussels who has no accountability to a parliament or voters. Barnier couldn’t give a crap. It’s just a job. Mind you he doesn’t appear to have to do a damn thing anyway, the Brits can’t even get into the starting blocks, absolutely fecking useless numpties.\r\n\r\nThe UK is so bad they are even promoting a “NO DEAL” as the outcome. FFS what a load of crap.\r\n\r\nIf that was not enough…\r\n\r\nTheresa May at the Conservative Party conference in Manchester coughed and spluttered her way through her speech. She even took a cough drop from Chancellor Philip Hammond to try and stop her coughing spasm. At the same time, in the background letters that were obviously stuck to the stage set with double sided tape fell off. The slogan which originally read” Building a country that works for everyone” ended up being “Building a country that works or everyon”. If that weren’t enough she was handed a P45 by a gatecrasher (In the UK you receive this form when you leave your existing job).\r\n\r\nWhat’s the phrase “When shit happens…. shit happens!!”\r\n\r\nShe was praised by her team of her arse-lickers stating that she carried on brilliantly through adversity. However, in the real world the wagons are circling just like in an old John Wayne movie!\r\n\r\nThe speech was low on content. BREXIT has brought the party to a dysfunctional state. The cracks, that were covered in paper after the referendum are widening and the paper cover gone. The word disastrous is being used by many media outlets to describe Theresa May’s performance. Far from rallying the troops she has heightened the differences.\r\n\r\nHer position a Prime Minister and leader of the Conservative Party is hanging by a thread. I believe she will be booted out with little dignity much like the way Maggie was, whilst on a business trip in Paris. It would be better for Theresa May to walk sooner rather than later.\r\n\r\nHaving said that what numpty wants the responsibility of BREXIT? Maybe it’s best to leave her in position, her career is fecked anyway and the BREXIT negotiation disaster can be pinned 100% to her legacy.\r\n\r\nHere’s a point to consider…\r\n\r\nThe UK has done feck all on getting the BREXIT negotiations started. Could there be another referendum with a new leader as the “Unsullied” in the shires think that the Tory government have really fecked up BREXIT so far.\r\n\r\nJust saying and thinking aloud…\r\n\r\nAnyway, enough of that….\r\n\r\nWith regards to the above, Carney in my opinion, has a decent case to say; “Hold on, no rate hike” (even with 3% inflation which he could argue is transitory like all Central bankers do!). I think that there is a chance he could get away with it without being categorized again as a flip flopper. This would apply especially if Theresa May were to resign or be ousted inside the next 2/3 weeks.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>EUR</u></strong><u>: CATALAN, BRUSSELS and the GERMAN ELECTION FALLOUT.</u>\r\n\r\nWTF…\r\n\r\nSome horrible scenes around Barcelona were televised last weekend with voters being dragged, hit, whacked with batons and generally beaten up over simply trying to vote. For those who thought that Spain had come a long way since the Francisco (General) Franco era… think again…. it would appear NOT. Quite a disgrace.\r\n\r\nIn addition, the silence from the rest of the EUROPEAN UNION, BRUSSELS etc. was a shocking display of how a united EUROPE could NEVER happen not in a million years. It was an embarrassment to those who call themselves leaders. The silence to me however spoke louder than any words that politicians could utter.\r\n\r\nWe enter another weekend of probable disturbances as Mariano Rajoy (Spanish Prime Minister) suspends the Catalan Parliament session next Monday in an attempt to block an independence vote taking place in the regional parliament.\r\n\r\nThe Catalan leaders are at a crossroads. Either move forward with declaring independence or try to negotiate a settlement to separate with Madrid.\r\n\r\nThis story has a great deal more left in it, with the King of Spain (Felipe) being accused of being a mouthpiece for the Spanish Government by the Catalan Regional President Carles Puigdemont.\r\n\r\nMeetings are scheduled moving forward through the weekend but I feel that this item has a long, long way still to run before its settled. Already businesses are moving Head Offices out of Catalonia in readiness for the split. It does not seem to have directly affected the single currency that much… weird to me.\r\n\r\nThis is very quiet news…\r\n\r\nAngela Merkel is still busy in the background working away trying to finalize a revised coalition government. This is taking some time and press releases are sparse which, to me indicate issues on agreements. With so many parties involved, the result will be a washed out version on what Merkel campaigned on. Coalitions = weak government.\r\n\r\nI do not believe that this has been factored in at all to the single currency exchange rate. It appears to be in suspended animation mode at the moment. I think that the larger traders are more concerned with the moves from the ECB than anything else.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>AUD</u></strong><u>: RBA RATE STATEMENT, TRADE BALANCE, RETAIL SALES.</u>\r\n\r\nThe RBA is standing firm and frankly looking around at what is going on, strong leadership from Philip Lowe is paying off.\r\n\r\nIn last week’s statement, he stated that high exchange rates would harm the economy and as usual the RBA provided subtle jawboning which has worked.\r\n\r\nDuring the week, the Trade Balance data was good (+0.99BAUD$ against a forecast of +0.88B AUD$), this was counterbalanced at the same time by poor Retail Sales at -0.6% it was worse than last month at -0.2% but the forecast was a +0.3%, the AUD was taken to the woodshed and spanked lower.\r\n\r\nOn Friday, last week RBA member Ian Harper leapt out of the masses to quip that the RBA would cut interest rates if the recent slowdown in the Australian economy worsens.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>CAD</u></strong><u>: TRADE BALANCE and JOBS DATA.</u>\r\n\r\nMore poor data was seen from Canada in the guise of Trade balance numbers that missed expectations (-CAD$3.4B forecast –CAD$2.6B).\r\n\r\nThe USD/CAD was whacked up another cent from 1.2470 to 1.2570 on the back of that data.\r\n\r\nThe jobs data followed 24 hours later and it was a very slight miss at 10k jobs vis-à-vis 12k anticipated. The Unemployment Rate remained at 6.2%, a slight uptick to 6.3% was expected.\r\n\r\nBecause the U.S. data was so erroneous the market struggled to know what to do and how to react and this overrode any logical moves with the CAD directly. Therefore, it basically tread water after the initial market volatility.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD</u></strong><u>: NON-FARM PAYROLLS and ISM PMI data.</u>\r\n\r\nThe number was a negative 33,000 jobs created and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.2%, which is less than pre-the GFC. Average hourly earnings rose to 0.5% from a previous 0.1% and forecasted 0.3%. This was strong.\r\n\r\nThe USD strengthened but did not go hell for leather to break the trading ranges.\r\n\r\nAs I mentioned in last week’s blog even before we were made aware that last week’s numbers would be hard to interpret, given the storms and hurricanes that basically battered the U.S. of late, I was already of the opinion that NFP helping the FED with policy was a non-event. As, in my opinion, the Fed have decided already.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2: LOOKING AHEAD TO THIS COMING WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n2.2.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ECON-DATA-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10155\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ECON-DATA-08102017-1024x674.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"674\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.2: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/TCHART-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10156\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/TCHART-08102017-1024x846.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"846\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.3: USD – TRADING CHARTS and COMMENTARIES: </u>\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>EUR/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/EURUSD-D-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10165\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/EURUSD-D-08102017-1024x483.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"483\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/GBPUSD-D-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10166\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/GBPUSD-D-08102017-1024x483.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"483\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/AUDUSD-D-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10164\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/AUDUSD-D-08102017-1024x483.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"483\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/NZDUSD-D-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10167\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/NZDUSD-D-08102017-1024x483.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"483\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCAD-D-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10168\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCAD-D-08102017-1024x483.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"483\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCHF-D-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10169\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCHF-D-08102017-1024x483.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"483\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDJPY-D-08102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10170\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDJPY-D-08102017-1024x483.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"483\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.4: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:</u>\r\n\r\nNot a lot this week to choose from at all.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD:</u></strong><u> PPi, RETAIL SALES and CPi INFLATION DATA</u>.\r\n\r\nI would never be-little the power of inflation data for an economy. It obviously takes on greater importance when the U.S. economy is involved, as this data represents such a vital barometer for sentiment moving forward. However, without wanting to sound as complacent and blasé as the markets are to data releases, I do think whilst these numbers are interesting to read from a trending perspective, from a FED viewpoint I do not think they are going to matter unless they miss by 5% or greater… something mind blowing off forecast is what I mean.\r\n\r\nThe FED has made its mind up vis-à-vis an interest rate move higher in December.\r\n\r\nThe FX market being a future pricing mechanism based primarily off Central Bank Monetary Policy will be baking this into pricing as we move closer to the December FED meeting on the 12th and 13th, with the announcement due on the 13th December 2017 at 2PM EST.\r\n\r\nBack to economic data…\r\n\r\nLast time around, everything was positive 0.2% - 0.4% except for Retail Sales which posted a poor -0.2% number.\r\n\r\nThis time the forecasts show basically an improvement across the board with Retail Sales expected at 1.5%. We are dealing with the ultimate consumer society in the world. The biggest economy in the world. The forecasts should be a piece of piss.\r\n\r\nAlways expect the unexpected.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.5: HOW TO PLAY THE MARKET THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\nThere is not a lot of data due this week and as such we will be captives to the movements in equities, securities and commodities.\r\n\r\nI do not think I would get much disagreement when I say almost since TRUMP was inaugurated the market has been more headline news driven that anything else.\r\n\r\nI think that I am alone with these thoughts as I do NOT find this market easy and I am struggling to get the reasoning behind moves and finding traction with direction and trade set ups is a little more difficult than usual.\r\n\r\nThis makes trading more of a gamble than a well thought out reasoned strategy or TRADE PLAN. For traders with more than a 60-minute trading horizon this brings a raft of issues into play that the scalpers of this world do not have to consider.\r\n\r\nWe have considerable heightened geopolitical news hovering around us with regards to “Little Rocket Man” and the Iran nuclear deal review.\r\n\r\nIt would very easy and glib to say just be careful trading this week. It would be accurate but a bit wishy-washy.\r\n\r\nThe USD weakened into the close last Friday, I see this as purely positioning as frankly no-one would really want to be heavy into being long the USD into the weekend with all the geopolitical risk being about.\r\n\r\nWe are in ranges at the moment that last week’s NFP could not break and whilst some individual pairs cut extremes (GBP/USD &amp; AUD/USD), the EUR/USD held above 1.1660 which, I think is significant.\r\n\r\nMore detail of my thoughts and ideas will appear for PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers as I add back trade set ups at the start of this week’s trading through Monday / Tuesday.\r\n\r\nFrom a general perspective, a lot depends on the news.\r\n\r\nTherefore, the only logical guide to present here would be to trade smaller sized positions. I expect a chop fest with no real overall direction, although, I do think that the chances of the USD breaking much higher will be limited unless a significant break past the 94.00 (DXY) the 23.6% retracement of the TRUMP inauguration move. If we break through 94.00 then the 95.86 (38.2%) would be in view, but in my opinion unless TRUMP has some significant “wins” I think the DXY moves lower with the trend and the USD takes another hit.\r\n\r\nTherefore…\r\n\r\nPlay the waiting game to see the reaction on Monday after NFP has been digested thru all markets. Try and get a confirmation of the bigger move before pulling the trigger.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is my own subscriber based Forex support service that offers subscribers my suggested trade set-ups and market commentaries.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting the HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE tab.\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT 2017 PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nOCTOBER 2017 TO DATE:           +481 net pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE 2017:                    +7,987 net pips\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs on my website  <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS ONLY:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4.1: TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>4.2: SENTIMENT CHART,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:\r\n</u><u>\r\n</u><u>4.3: EXISTING CORE TRADES (PLANS &amp; STRATEGIES):</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.4: CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.5: FX BROKER NEWS with their MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FINISHING LINE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5.1: WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you have read in this blog and would like the chance to win a FREE SUBSCRIPTION valued at CAD$150.00, all you should do is subscribe to my FREE NEWSLETTER (this blog), by adding your email address on my welcome page just below my cube logo at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\n<u>5.2: PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTIONS:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you’ve read in this blog and should you want to go a stage further and subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE. This can be done on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the Tab SUBSCRIBE HERE.\r\n\r\nSubscribing to the PREMIUM SERVICE is not just about receiving a larger “DRIVE THRU” blog packed with more trading supporting information, my thoughts and ideas. There is much more to a subscription than those things. Check it all out under the tab HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\n<u>5.3: CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\n\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #254 FREE NEWSLETTER\r\n8th October 2017\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','UK RATE HIKE IN THE BALANCE?','','inherit','closed','closed','','10180-revision-v1','','','2017-10-08 09:55:22','2017-10-08 14:55:22','',10180,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/10180-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(10194,1,'2017-10-13 15:57:57','2017-10-13 20:57:57','','DXY 15102017','','inherit','open','closed','','dxy-15102017','','','2017-10-14 07:34:40','2017-10-14 12:34:40','',10213,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/DXY-15102017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(10195,1,'2017-10-13 15:58:03','2017-10-13 20:58:03','','ECON DATA 15102017','','inherit','open','closed','','econ-data-15102017','','','2017-10-14 07:35:29','2017-10-14 12:35:29','',10213,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ECON-DATA-15102017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(10196,1,'2017-10-13 15:58:08','2017-10-13 20:58:08','','TCHART 15102017','','inherit','open','closed','','tchart-15102017','','','2017-10-14 07:35:43','2017-10-14 12:35:43','',10213,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/TCHART-15102017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(10197,1,'2017-10-13 15:58:13','2017-10-13 20:58:13','','SENTIMENT 15102017','','inherit','open','closed','','sentiment-15102017','','','2017-10-14 07:40:38','2017-10-14 12:40:38','',10213,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/SENTIMENT-15102017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(10206,1,'2017-10-13 16:05:49','2017-10-13 21:05:49','','AUDUSD D 15102017','','inherit','open','closed','','audusd-d-15102017','','','2017-10-14 07:36:23','2017-10-14 12:36:23','',10213,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/AUDUSD-D-15102017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(10207,1,'2017-10-13 16:05:53','2017-10-13 21:05:53','','EURUSD D 15102017','','inherit','open','closed','','eurusd-d-15102017','','','2017-10-14 07:36:06','2017-10-14 12:36:06','',10213,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/EURUSD-D-15102017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(10208,1,'2017-10-13 16:06:01','2017-10-13 21:06:01','','GBPUSD D 15102017','','inherit','open','closed','','gbpusd-d-15102017','','','2017-10-14 07:36:15','2017-10-14 12:36:15','',10213,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/GBPUSD-D-15102017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(10209,1,'2017-10-13 16:06:05','2017-10-13 21:06:05','','NZDUSD D 15102017','','inherit','open','closed','','nzdusd-d-15102017','','','2017-10-14 07:36:32','2017-10-14 12:36:32','',10213,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/NZDUSD-D-15102017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(10210,1,'2017-10-13 16:06:09','2017-10-13 21:06:09','','USDCAD D 15102017','','inherit','open','closed','','usdcad-d-15102017','','','2017-10-14 07:36:44','2017-10-14 12:36:44','',10213,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCAD-D-15102017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(10211,1,'2017-10-13 16:06:13','2017-10-13 21:06:13','','USDCHF D 15102017','','inherit','open','closed','','usdchf-d-15102017','','','2017-10-14 07:36:53','2017-10-14 12:36:53','',10213,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCHF-D-15102017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(10212,1,'2017-10-13 16:06:15','2017-10-13 21:06:15','','USDJPY D 15102017','','inherit','open','closed','','usdjpy-d-15102017','','','2017-10-14 07:37:02','2017-10-14 12:37:02','',10213,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDJPY-D-15102017.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(10213,1,'2017-10-14 07:51:13','2017-10-14 12:51:13','&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nLast week was a light week for economic data but wow the news events were crazy. From a trading viewpoint, I had to split the week into two halves.\r\n\r\nMonday thru Wednesday was boring, boring, boring. Where has the volatility gone? I tweeted out several times phrases such as “chop fest”, “lots of flashing lights”. We can put lipstick on this market but the bottom line is “it is a PIG” the volatility that used to there has to a large extent dried up. If I wanted to look at flashing lights all day, I’ll put up the Christmas Tree early, this is a bit boring.\r\n\r\nThen on Thursday and Friday, Holy Mother of God, it was wild. BREXIT spiced it up, Draghi followed and the US inflation data was a small miss but OMG the market reaction was huge, probably due to the implications it could have on FED rate hikes in 2018.\r\n\r\nI added net pips but I also took losses on Friday. Annoying as it was, my CONTINGENT LIABILITY of all trades and limit orders added to together, was not at my limits but it was higher than usual due to quantity of trades I have at the moment.\r\n\r\nLooking towards the weekend with the geopolitical concerns still out there and the fact that these moves could motor into this week’s early trading, I decided to cut them out. I banked losses of just over 200 pips. The net pip increase for the week was therefore only 160 pips.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong><u>2.1: LOOKING BACK AT LAST WEEK’S NEWS.</u></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nOnly two pieces of news last week resonated with me for this section and regular readers will not be surprised by my choices.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>\r\nGBP</u></strong><u>: BREXIT NEGOTIATIONS REACH DEADLOCK then AN OLIVE BRANCH?</u>\r\n\r\nWell, “Glaze my nipples and call me Rita”, in the name of sanity what the bloody hell did the markets expect… a result?\r\n\r\nFor crying out loud, the clues have been stronger and stronger. The UK has been mentioning preparation for a “No deal” a lot recently.\r\n\r\nLast Thursday, after round 4 or 5 of the DIVORCE negotiations, the EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier and the UK equivalent MP and Tory Government Cabinet member David Davis announced the negotiations were deadlocked.\r\n\r\nQuelle bloody surprise!\r\n\r\nThe EU presented a running order of protocol to be ticked off in a strict A to B to C to D order, all nice and easy to follow. The Brits like the idea of D to B to A and then C. The obvious result is deadlock. So with the anticipation of deadlock, the decision to release more and more “sound bytes” about a “No deal” was probably a tactic to try to change the viewpoint of the EU.\r\n\r\nCable sold off, then later the same day out it comes from Barnier, what appears like a concession. Cable spikes back to remove all prior losses.\r\n\r\nMichel Barnier offers a two year “transition extension”. An olive branch, my arse it was not, it was pure genius.  This offer, ties the UK to meeting all EU financial obligations for an additional two years beyond the Article 50 deadline. Basically, in a nutshell… sure we’ll extend everything, but you have to meet all of our rules and regulations in the transition process.\r\n\r\nStep back for a moment....\r\n\r\nThe UK head negotiator (David Davis) is a politician who cannot appear weak as he would be slaughtered in both the Cabinet (behind closed doors) and (publicly ridiculed) in the UK House of Commons. The pressure not to give way on anything is massive, personally and politically as this will be in record books of his public service career.  All the pressure is on his head to achieve the best deal possible, which for the UK, is basically appearing to remain inside the EU but with border controls.\r\n\r\nThe EU chief negotiator is Michel Barnier. He is a French Republican Politician. He is representing 27 countries. His job is to follow the negotiation road map given to him by the “jotter blotters” in Brussels. This will at conclusion be presented to the 27 leaders of the EU for them to ratify.\r\n\r\nBarnier, although I am sure wants to do a great job, couldn’t give a rat’s ass about any fallout because all the pressure is on the UK. He can hold his hands aloft and claim to eternity that he has his road map that must be followed in order. Whether the UK are at fault or not, the blame for any negotiating breakdown can be switched very easily and all the pressure put back across the English Channel. Put yourself in Barnier’s position; it’s a high-profile role and it\'s a win, win no lose job. He just has to follow the guidelines. The transition deal if accepted was a gem in my opinion.\r\n\r\nOffering the two-year transition that Prime Minister May requested is a master stroke from Barnier. He gets the guarantee of badly needed money from the UK into the coffers of the EU in Brussels. It is the equivalent of a modern day “TROJAN HORSE”. However, this is NOT a done deal it needs to be ratified by at least Germany for it to be a runner.\r\n\r\nI still giggle at the HARD BREXIT versus SOFT BREXIT calls made by the media.\r\n\r\nA two-year transition does NOT automatically = SOFT BREXIT\r\n\r\nSOFT BREXIT = CONTAGION…. not going to happen\r\nSOFT BREXIT = CHERRY PICKING… not going to happen\r\n\r\nIf the transition deal is agreed it is nothing more than “Can kicking the issue down the road”.\r\n\r\nAt the back of my cynical mind; Theresa May requests the transition extension, this means that the Article 50 deadline date would now shift to March 2021, what could happen in the interim?\r\n\r\nNew parliamentary elections would have taken place.\r\nMaybe a new referendum on BREXIT?\r\nMaybe another Scottish Independence vote?\r\nA new Prime Minister of a new Government.\r\nA new (God help them) Minister in charge of negotiating the “divorce”.\r\n\r\nTheresa May effectively engineers her own BREXIT deal. She passes the poisoned chalice on.\r\n\r\nThe transition is not yet a done deal. This whole process is still covered in masses of uncertainties. I have no doubt some progress has been made but for the medias sake it’s all put forward as deadlock so far.\r\n\r\nThere simply was never enough time. I wrote months ago that it took Greenland with no way near the same complications of agreements as the UK to leave the full two-year limit. The UK was always going to be longer, it much more integrated and complicated.\r\n\r\nThis is still a huge unknown.\r\n\r\nIf the EU says no to the two-year transition, what then?\r\n\r\nCable drops like a brick because a “NO DEAL” walkaway looks to be the most obvious outcome?\r\n\r\nI know that the BOE have been relatively quiet of late, but I still find the news that the BOE are still considering a rate hike in amongst all this uncertainty plus a series of recent poor economic data more than outweighing any good data, incredible to consider, and frankly, its worthy of a comparison with a Las Vegas high stakes poker room gamble.\r\n\r\nThe latest BCC (British Chamber of Commerce) Quarterly Economic survey of businesses (what a great read), whilst it would send most people to sleep, its overall summation on the current UK economic position from its members was “uninspiring”. Now that\'s what I call a real vote of confidence…. NOT!\r\n\r\nTo raise rates with so much up in the air is a; huge / massive / almighty gamble in my opinion. Not befitting a responsible Central Bank.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>ECB:</u></strong><u> CATALONIA and MARIO DRAGHI (ECB). </u>\r\n\r\nYou couldn’t make this stuff up.\r\n\r\nThe Catalonian declaration of independence was placed on hold, whist the Catalan president Carles Puidegemont stated that it would be suspended whilst he held talks with Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rahoy, who has already basically told him to feck off…. In the nicest possible terms.\r\n\r\nCatalonia accounts for about 40% of Spain’s GDP, so for this reason alone Madrid WILL NOT want to let it go anywhere, hence all the shenanigans. In my opinion, Catalonia is the biggest risk to the EUROZONE since GREECE. It is a massive risk to the Spanish economic recovery.\r\n\r\nI write this, but this is NOT reflected in the price action of the EURO at all. It is in a very tight range and has been for some time.\r\n\r\nWhat has now been created in the Catalan/Madrid crisis is nothing more than polarization.\r\n\r\nWhat is the way forward?\r\n\r\nBusinesses are looking to leave Catalonia. Catalonia would NOT be an instant member of the EU. How could it raise capital to operate? Maybe against future tax income? I see this as a credit event, enormous high risk and this whole matter appears to have not been thought out properly.\r\n\r\nPuidgemont tried to use the referendum vote to pressure Madrid for change, but that seems a tall order to say the least given the financial implications to Spain.\r\n\r\nThis will NOT end well. There will be more unrest to come, but unless a well-drawn out plan is visible, from the outside looking in, this is a mess. It simply cannot be good for the single currency the longer it drags on. Lines in the sand have been drawn and the political and economic risks are obvious on both sides.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nMario Draghi and the ECB governing council as I have mentioned before are taking massive doses of Prozac to try and keep themselves steady as decision day looms on ECB future monetary policy.\r\n\r\nDraghi has said “Based on our regular economic and monetary analyses, we decided to keep the key ECB interest rates unchanged. We expect them to remain at their present levels for an extended period of time, and <strong><u>WELL PAST</u></strong> the horizon of our net asset purchases”\r\n\r\nThat\'s pretty clear to me. The German’s however are not happy with this statement and want change.\r\n\r\nThe current rate of ECB QE (Quantitative Easing) bond buying is at €60 Billion per month. The rumours about this moving forward is that in two weeks’ time at the next ECB Press Conference, Draghi will announce a cut in the monthly purchases to €30 Billion per month from early 2018 and run this reduced volume for about 9 months before the “tapering” will end completely.\r\n\r\nSo… there you have it; forward guidance from the ECB in a nutshell and its very clear so that we can all understand and follow. Will the markets get it?\r\n\r\nHow do I intend to trade the single currency moving forward? For that you will need to subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>\r\nUSD</u></strong><u>: FOMC MEETING MINUTES and THE US DOLLAR INDEX (DXY).</u>\r\n\r\nWTF…\r\n\r\nThe minutes reflected the statement.\r\n\r\nHowever, the USD was sold off as I think that the reality of no inflation was starting to hit board members. These minutes were before the bombshell of “THE FED HAS NO CLUE ABOUT INFLATION” and Yellen’s “SIGNS OF INFLATION &amp; TRANSITORY” were used at the last press conference. The minutes were also written before Yellen’s comments regarding the Fed models on inflation calculations are basically crap and inept… those latter descriptive words were mine!!\r\n\r\nThe market sold off after the minutes, the fear of less tightening because of no inflation in 2018 may have rung a few alarm bells… finally. This market is fickle, it over reacts to old news repeatedly and can be painful to follow at times.\r\n\r\nI have found trading this year a challenge, to put it mildly.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nFED or not, the DXY is at a crossroads and we are either going sub 91.00 or higher through 94.00 in the coming sessions.\r\n\r\nAt times over these past weeks I am trading on the basis that the FED are raising rates period, and its pure Technicals on the DXY that will determine its direction. FED policy appears secondary.\r\n\r\nI still find it hard to be long the USD. It has, like I said last week sold off since the TRUMP inauguration. I am looking for reasons to be long the USD both FUNDAMENTALLY and TECHNICALLY. A week ago, I had oversold conditions as a reason that may influence the markets, those have now gone.\r\n\r\nMoving forward, THE DONALD wants low rates and a weak USD. The US will manipulate the USD lower if it has to, it has done so before.\r\n\r\nThis is my most watched chart of late and it will be over the coming sessions as I believe that this chart will be at the basis of most FX strategies being formulated for the short and medium terms moving forward.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/DXY-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10194\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/DXY-15102017-1024x516.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"516\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2: LOOKING AHEAD TO THIS COMING WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n2.2.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ECON-DATA-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10195\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ECON-DATA-15102017-1024x775.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"775\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.2: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/TCHART-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10196\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/TCHART-15102017-1024x838.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"838\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.3: USD – TRADING CHARTS and COMMENTARIES: </u>\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>EUR/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/EURUSD-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10207\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/EURUSD-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/GBPUSD-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10208\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/GBPUSD-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/AUDUSD-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10206\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/AUDUSD-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/NZDUSD-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10209\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/NZDUSD-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCAD-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10210\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCAD-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCHF-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10211\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCHF-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDJPY-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10212\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDJPY-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.4: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:</u>\r\n\r\nThankfully more economic data than last week to choose from. The following all UK based tickle my fancy…\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP:</u></strong><u> CPI, AVERAGE EARNINGS, RETAIL SALES &amp; CARNEY</u>.\r\n\r\nIt\'s a very awesome set up this week for UK news.\r\n\r\nInflation data, Average Earnings and Carney, you could not plan a diary better except for the fact I would have Carney speak after the Retails Sales numbers on Thursday, rather than have him fronting the news events.\r\n\r\nThis data will seal the fate of UK interest rates in November in my opinion. The BOE is ready to push up interest rates and stronger inflation data will probably seal that deal. If there is to be a spanner in the works, it will either come from the increased BREXIT uncertainty that is hanging over the markets at the moment or from the Average Earning Index if it still shows lagging too far behind inflation. However, I think the accountants at the BOE have Carney by the short and curly’s and the one and done hike I think he hopes will keep the wolves from the door.\r\n\r\nI wrote earlier in the blog about my concerns and the gamble I believe that this move would be, so I am not going to repeat myself.\r\n\r\nBy the time, Carney speaks we should know if the BREXIT transition deal is a runner or not or whether the government has rejected it, in which case it will be very interesting to hear what Carney has to say on this subject and if it will affect the BOE thought process on interest rate increases.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.5: HOW TO PLAY THE MARKET THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\nAs we ended last week with the USD getting whacked, one must expect this treat to carry forward into the start of trading this coming week.\r\n\r\nMy focus will be on the USD index (DXY). The level of 90.93 is crucial in my opinion. Should this level break, we could be heading to the mid 80’s. The possible effect of a move sub 90.93 should not be underestimated.\r\n\r\nFrom a macro level the FED are probably still going to hike in December but unless inflation picks up one should question whether the December 2017 rate increase will be the only one until the same time in 2018 (I am assuming that the new FED chairperson in February will play the usual game of stringing the markets along for the year on possible hikes, and make one at the year end to maintain credibility).\r\n\r\nHere are my thoughts: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Should the DXY break lower what happens to EUR/USD?</li>\r\n 	<li>The ECB does NOT want EUR/USD exchange rates above 1.2000. A mid 80’s print in the DXY would have EUR/USD closer to 1.2500 possibly above that level.</li>\r\n 	<li>The effects of a FED rate rise on the DXY should it already be towards the mid 80’s would be minimal.</li>\r\n 	<li>Other G8 Central Banks could not rely on the FED to counter balance any rate increases that they may have planned, as in my opinion the USD would be one weak “sister!”. Therefore, I believe the moves by other Central Banks to normalization or to raise their interest rates could be held back.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThose points are really for the future but they are with me at the moment. My focus would be on cross rate pairs until the situation with the USD has settled down. Trading the USD has an increased risk element attached to it at the moment given the geopolitical risks that would have a direct effect, therefore keeping way from the USD for a while in any event is perhaps not the worst trading idea.\r\n\r\nUp until the end of last week the EUR/AUD &amp; EUR/NZD were great options and they should be again once they have finished their corrective moves lower.\r\n\r\nYou DO NOT need to trade every day. Days when maybe you do not trade can be your best days as CASH is a position.\r\n\r\nThere is a lot for the market to digest at the present time on the heels of NFP. Let the market correct first and wait for it to give a trading signal.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is my own subscriber based Forex support service that offers subscribers my suggested trade set-ups and market commentaries.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting the HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE tab.\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT 2017 PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nOCTOBER 2017 TO DATE:           +160 net pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE 2017:                    +8,047 net pips\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs on my website  <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nAlternatively, if you prefer to watch a video recording about the PREMIUM SERVICE, click the link below. You will be directed to a 40-minute webinar presentation entitled “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE”.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS ONLY:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4.1: TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\nI added 160 pips last week, which frankly I thought there was little chance of doing, so I am happy.\r\n\r\nThe markets I think were surprised with the US inflation data last Friday. I expected HOT numbers and we got small misses across the board. The minimum anticipation was for at least in line prints. The moves that followed slight misses were extreme in a couple of cases which is now the normal response. Nevertheless, it was a miss, how the markets play with this data next week will be crucial. I suspect that unless something of a miracle happens we will sooner rather than later be testing the DXY support of 90.83.\r\n\r\nDuring last week, I spoke with a couple of you and brought up my current trading volumes and mentioned RISK MANAGEMENT, I promised that I would cover this point in this section of the blog this weekend.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.1.1: RISK MANAGEMENT AND POSITION SIZING:\r\n\r\nAt the moment, I have a larger than normal number of LIVE and LIMIT ORDERS placed across my brokers. Over the past few days talking with some subscribers, it quickly became apparent that some of you guys were running with way too much RISK and that whilst everyone’s RISK TOLERANCE is different, and I respect that, there was a need for me to update what already exists in “THE LIBRARY” with a 2017 version, although in my opinion, the rules are very similar, in fact still the same.\r\n\r\nTrading in the FX market has elephant traps set all over place, no matter which way we move to improve our trading returns there are barriers. The only constant that we can control is RISK.\r\n\r\nWhether trades are LIVE or LIMIT ORDERS, in my opinion we should assume that they are live trades and treat our RISK that way.\r\n\r\nThis is how I approach matters: -\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>I work on the basis that every trade has a STOP LOSS liability of 200 pips. (This average level allows for my moving of STOP levels from time to time and it also takes into consideration the mix of FT, RT, FUN &amp; POS trades).You can of course set up a spread sheet to give you exact numbers. I know from experience that I am not touching near to my 3% RISK LIMIT based upon the sizes of the broker accounts I have and my day to day use for the different categories of trades. However, the mix of trade styles is skewed at the moment and because of this my position sizing has been reduced to compensate.(This process does NOT however include one set of trading pairs which I have exempted from the main accounts into their own broker account. I am dealing with them on a very long time frame, already over two years, the AUD/NZD trades)</li>\r\n 	<li>This combined number of pips should then be multiplied up by trade size incorporating the mixture of MICRO, MINI and STANDARD lots to give you the actual total pip exposure.</li>\r\n 	<li>You can be clever and it requires a little work but if you are skilled enough you can have an actual CONTINGENT LIABILITY based on LIVE trades, and a future version based on LIMIT ORDERS as well as a combined version. This gives you complete 100% management.</li>\r\n 	<li>This is the calculated into $$$ value and this becomes what I call your CONTINGENT LIABILITY.</li>\r\n 	<li>It is your CONTINGENT LIABILITY expressed as a percentage to your broker account balance that gives you your RISK %.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nEXAMPLE:\r\n\r\nBROKER ACCOUNT BALANCE = USD$100,000.00\r\n\r\n15 LIVE TRADES\r\n10 LIMIT ORDER TRADES\r\n25 TOTAL TRADES\r\n25 x 200 pips\r\nRISK = 25 x 200 = 5,000 pips\r\n\r\nSINGLE MINI LOT TRADER = CONTINGENT LIABILITY of $5,000.00\r\n(This example assumes ALL trades are 1 x mini lot. You would need to factor in for micro and standard lot volumes if applicable)\r\n\r\nAs you know my RISK TOLERANCE = 3%, in this example the account has a RISK of 5%.\r\n\r\nEveryone has a different RISK TOLERANCE. If you are happy with 5%, 7%, 8% so be it is your money. However, if you are too exposed what can you do?\r\n\r\nWHAT TO DO TO FIX?\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>Add more funds to your broker account.</li>\r\n 	<li>Reduce position sizes so that exposure based upon a mix of MICRO, MINI and STANDARD lot trades are not greater than 3% of your broker account balance. (Or whatever your RISK TOLERANCE % is)</li>\r\n 	<li>Close positions to bring your RISK inside your tolerance level.</li>\r\n 	<li>Possibly if you understand how to do it, HEDGE your position as it stops RISK increasing but managing your way out of a hedged position can be difficult. It can take a long time as the best conditions should be directional with great momentum.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nDO I EVER BREAK MY 3% CEILING?\r\n\r\nNot in my main USD major or my JPY broker accounts because that is where my position sizes are usually larger.\r\n\r\nI mentioned this earlier, I have my one exception and it’s NOT a major break from my principles but I acknowledge it is different approach, but it is managed.\r\n\r\nAs many of you are aware from my existing trades and limit orders my NZD cross rate exposure, mainly through the AUD/NZD is well beyond the 3% when it is all said and done as I have added a lot more RISK to my NZD cross positions through the EUR/NZD, GBP/NZD and NZD/CAD.\r\n\r\nI operate all my NZD cross rate exposure through a separate broker account. My CONTINGENT LIABILITY is just over 5.5%. I have set my limit at 7%\r\n\r\nI control RISK through a combination of hedging and position sizing adjustments. My NZD is a long, long term CORE TRADE primarily on the AUD/NZD cross.\r\n\r\nThis has been a two-year trade so far and I see it operating for another two-years minimum. I wanted greater flexibility given my FUNDAMENTAL views and the period within I am proposing to work this trade.\r\n\r\nSUMMARY:\r\n\r\nI am very lucky, I can operate two large accounts (from my own values) and three smaller ones to manage trades through. The gap between my trading positions and the account balance may seem unrealistic at times especially for new traders to understand, however this is what RISK MANAGEMENT is all about.\r\n\r\nThere is never a threat about a margin call and three or four bad trades will not KILL the account, it hurts me, but that\'s trading.\r\n\r\nI am here for the long haul. Longevity in trading is about patience and being sidelined quite a bit if you are NOT happy with the conditions.\r\n\r\nI am not sure whether this helps, I hope it does not confuse.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.2: SENTIMENT CHART,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:</u>\r\n\r\nThis bizarre market continues to baffle me.\r\n\r\nLast week, I thought that a HAWKISH FED would produce USD strength across the board – we saw weakness.\r\n\r\nSpanish police dragging people away from polling booths followed by a possible declaration of independence I thought would be bad news from whatever perspective viewed for the EURO – it did nothing, hardly moved.\r\n\r\nAs a FUNDAMENTAL trader, I find myself trading semi FUNDAMENTAL and adjusting my style, approach and thoughts constantly.\r\n\r\nI am still comfortable being long AUD/NZD. I still believe the NZD currency is over-valued and fair value is closer to 0.6500 (NZD/USD). This makes me comfortable being long the EUR/NZD and GBP/NZD cross rates.\r\n\r\nIn addition, should the JPY correct lower, which is very possible, it should bring all JPY pairs lower with it eventually. This should be a RISK event therefore, the EUR/AUD, EUR/NZD, GBP/AUD and GBP/NZD should move higher.\r\n\r\nThe EURO is now confusing me, following Draghi’s very clear comments earlier this month. Absolutely clear forward guidance, better than Yellen and Carney added together.\r\n\r\nThe AUD, despite comments from the RBA, I think could be on a corrective move higher before heading lower again. Whilst this helps my AUD/NZD trade it does nothing for my EUR/AUD or GBP/AUD trades, although the latter is hedged at a 200-pip loss. Also, the JPY has a place to play here as already mentioned.\r\n\r\nDo not get me started on the fecking pig of a currency the cable. I just do not know where Theresa May and the then the BOE are going to go with this one especially if the EU grant a two-year extension to the Article 50 deadline date under the guise of transitional time. What happens if the EU says no extension?  Whooooooooooosh…. It could be the outcome, who knows?\r\n\r\nThe CAD, I was clear on its move lower through 1.2000 (USD/CAD) but it is struggling with 1.2460. In addition, you weigh in the comments from Poloz and the well-known phrase I used to be decisive and now I am not quite sure and that sums up the markets view of the loonie.\r\n\r\nI think if NAFTA remains with Canada and the U.S. with a cross border trading alliance this will do the trick and put some lead in the pencil of the CAD$ and it should strengthen as a result. The economic data that couldn’t miss for months back to back has tailed off at late. So, with rate hikes from the BOC being data dependent this needs to improve.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/SENTIMENT-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10197\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/SENTIMENT-15102017-771x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"771\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>4.3: EXISTING CORE TRADES (PLANS &amp; STRATEGIES):</u>\r\n\r\nBasically, I am STILL bearish the CAD and NZD currencies. As eluded to earlier I am looking short-term at adding the AUD to my bearish positioning.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE CAD:</u></strong>\r\nCurrently, I am live the following: -\r\n\r\n2 x live short USD/CAD trades\r\n\r\nPlus: - I have BUY STOP limit orders in position for the CAD/CHF and CAD/JPY and 2 x short LIMIT ORDERS with USD/CAD.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: Is to wait as per my comments above in section 4.2\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE NZD</u></strong>:\r\n\r\nCurrently I have 3 x live long AUD/NZD trades and 2 x EUR/NZD long trades plus a short NZD/JPY trade.\r\n\r\nI still hold a hedged long GBP/NZD trade to cover increased market uncertainties in the short term. My maximum loss on the trade is limited to 300 pips out of a Monthly ATR of c.1,300 pips. I am not in any rush to work my way out of this position.\r\n\r\nPlus: - I have 2 x AUD/NZD and a further 3 x GBP/NZD limit order trades in position.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: I am waiting for the market to reset before adding additional trades.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.4: CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\nCURRENT LIVE TRADES:\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LIVE-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10199\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LIVE-15102017-825x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"825\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\nCURRENT LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LIMIT-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10198\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LIMIT-15102017-900x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"900\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.5: FX BROKER NEWS with their MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\nAbsolutely nothing new to add here this week.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FINISHING LINE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5.1: WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you have read in this blog and would like the chance to win a FREE SUBSCRIPTION valued at CAD$150.00, all you should do is subscribe to my FREE NEWSLETTER (this blog), by adding your email address on my welcome page just below my cube logo at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\n<u>5.2: PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTIONS:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you’ve read in this blog and should you want to go a stage further and subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE, this can be done on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the Tab SUBSCRIBE HERE.\r\n\r\nSubscribing to the PREMIUM SERVICE is not just about receiving a larger “DRIVE THRU” blog packed with more trading supporting information, my thoughts and ideas. There is much more to a subscription than those things. Check it all out under the tab HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nAlternatively, if you prefer to watch a video recording about the PREMIUM SERVICE, click the link below. You will be directed to a 40-minute webinar presentation entitled “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE”.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n5.3: CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\n\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #151 PREMIUM SERVICE\r\n15th October 2017\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','THE EU TROJAN HORSE','','publish','open','closed','','eu-trojan-horse','','','2017-10-14 07:51:13','2017-10-14 12:51:13','',0,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?post_type=member_posts&#038;p=10213',0,'member_posts','',0),(10217,1,'2017-10-14 07:51:13','2017-10-14 12:51:13','&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nLast week was a light week for economic data but wow the news events were crazy. From a trading viewpoint, I had to split the week into two halves.\r\n\r\nMonday thru Wednesday was boring, boring, boring. Where has the volatility gone? I tweeted out several times phrases such as “chop fest”, “lots of flashing lights”. We can put lipstick on this market but the bottom line is “it is a PIG” the volatility that used to there has to a large extent dried up. If I wanted to look at flashing lights all day, I’ll put up the Christmas Tree early, this is a bit boring.\r\n\r\nThen on Thursday and Friday, Holy Mother of God, it was wild. BREXIT spiced it up, Draghi followed and the US inflation data was a small miss but OMG the market reaction was huge, probably due to the implications it could have on FED rate hikes in 2018.\r\n\r\nI added net pips but I also took losses on Friday. Annoying as it was, my CONTINGENT LIABILITY of all trades and limit orders added to together, was not at my limits but it was higher than usual due to quantity of trades I have at the moment.\r\n\r\nLooking towards the weekend with the geopolitical concerns still out there and the fact that these moves could motor into this week’s early trading, I decided to cut them out. I banked losses of just over 200 pips. The net pip increase for the week was therefore only 160 pips.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong><u>2.1: LOOKING BACK AT LAST WEEK’S NEWS.</u></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nOnly two pieces of news last week resonated with me for this section and regular readers will not be surprised by my choices.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>\r\nGBP</u></strong><u>: BREXIT NEGOTIATIONS REACH DEADLOCK then AN OLIVE BRANCH?</u>\r\n\r\nWell, “Glaze my nipples and call me Rita”, in the name of sanity what the bloody hell did the markets expect… a result?\r\n\r\nFor crying out loud, the clues have been stronger and stronger. The UK has been mentioning preparation for a “No deal” a lot recently.\r\n\r\nLast Thursday, after round 4 or 5 of the DIVORCE negotiations, the EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier and the UK equivalent MP and Tory Government Cabinet member David Davis announced the negotiations were deadlocked.\r\n\r\nQuelle bloody surprise!\r\n\r\nThe EU presented a running order of protocol to be ticked off in a strict A to B to C to D order, all nice and easy to follow. The Brits like the idea of D to B to A and then C. The obvious result is deadlock. So with the anticipation of deadlock, the decision to release more and more “sound bytes” about a “No deal” was probably a tactic to try to change the viewpoint of the EU.\r\n\r\nCable sold off, then later the same day out it comes from Barnier, what appears like a concession. Cable spikes back to remove all prior losses.\r\n\r\nMichel Barnier offers a two year “transition extension”. An olive branch, my arse it was not, it was pure genius.  This offer, ties the UK to meeting all EU financial obligations for an additional two years beyond the Article 50 deadline. Basically, in a nutshell… sure we’ll extend everything, but you have to meet all of our rules and regulations in the transition process.\r\n\r\nStep back for a moment....\r\n\r\nThe UK head negotiator (David Davis) is a politician who cannot appear weak as he would be slaughtered in both the Cabinet (behind closed doors) and (publicly ridiculed) in the UK House of Commons. The pressure not to give way on anything is massive, personally and politically as this will be in record books of his public service career.  All the pressure is on his head to achieve the best deal possible, which for the UK, is basically appearing to remain inside the EU but with border controls.\r\n\r\nThe EU chief negotiator is Michel Barnier. He is a French Republican Politician. He is representing 27 countries. His job is to follow the negotiation road map given to him by the “jotter blotters” in Brussels. This will at conclusion be presented to the 27 leaders of the EU for them to ratify.\r\n\r\nBarnier, although I am sure wants to do a great job, couldn’t give a rat’s ass about any fallout because all the pressure is on the UK. He can hold his hands aloft and claim to eternity that he has his road map that must be followed in order. Whether the UK are at fault or not, the blame for any negotiating breakdown can be switched very easily and all the pressure put back across the English Channel. Put yourself in Barnier’s position; it’s a high-profile role and it\'s a win, win no lose job. He just has to follow the guidelines. The transition deal if accepted was a gem in my opinion.\r\n\r\nOffering the two-year transition that Prime Minister May requested is a master stroke from Barnier. He gets the guarantee of badly needed money from the UK into the coffers of the EU in Brussels. It is the equivalent of a modern day “TROJAN HORSE”. However, this is NOT a done deal it needs to be ratified by at least Germany for it to be a runner.\r\n\r\nI still giggle at the HARD BREXIT versus SOFT BREXIT calls made by the media.\r\n\r\nA two-year transition does NOT automatically = SOFT BREXIT\r\n\r\nSOFT BREXIT = CONTAGION…. not going to happen\r\nSOFT BREXIT = CHERRY PICKING… not going to happen\r\n\r\nIf the transition deal is agreed it is nothing more than “Can kicking the issue down the road”.\r\n\r\nAt the back of my cynical mind; Theresa May requests the transition extension, this means that the Article 50 deadline date would now shift to March 2021, what could happen in the interim?\r\n\r\nNew parliamentary elections would have taken place.\r\nMaybe a new referendum on BREXIT?\r\nMaybe another Scottish Independence vote?\r\nA new Prime Minister of a new Government.\r\nA new (God help them) Minister in charge of negotiating the “divorce”.\r\n\r\nTheresa May effectively engineers her own BREXIT deal. She passes the poisoned chalice on.\r\n\r\nThe transition is not yet a done deal. This whole process is still covered in masses of uncertainties. I have no doubt some progress has been made but for the medias sake it’s all put forward as deadlock so far.\r\n\r\nThere simply was never enough time. I wrote months ago that it took Greenland with no way near the same complications of agreements as the UK to leave the full two-year limit. The UK was always going to be longer, it much more integrated and complicated.\r\n\r\nThis is still a huge unknown.\r\n\r\nIf the EU says no to the two-year transition, what then?\r\n\r\nCable drops like a brick because a “NO DEAL” walkaway looks to be the most obvious outcome?\r\n\r\nI know that the BOE have been relatively quiet of late, but I still find the news that the BOE are still considering a rate hike in amongst all this uncertainty plus a series of recent poor economic data more than outweighing any good data, incredible to consider, and frankly, its worthy of a comparison with a Las Vegas high stakes poker room gamble.\r\n\r\nThe latest BCC (British Chamber of Commerce) Quarterly Economic survey of businesses (what a great read), whilst it would send most people to sleep, its overall summation on the current UK economic position from its members was “uninspiring”. Now that\'s what I call a real vote of confidence…. NOT!\r\n\r\nTo raise rates with so much up in the air is a; huge / massive / almighty gamble in my opinion. Not befitting a responsible Central Bank.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>ECB:</u></strong><u> CATALONIA and MARIO DRAGHI (ECB). </u>\r\n\r\nYou couldn’t make this stuff up.\r\n\r\nThe Catalonian declaration of independence was placed on hold, whist the Catalan president Carles Puidegemont stated that it would be suspended whilst he held talks with Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rahoy, who has already basically told him to feck off…. In the nicest possible terms.\r\n\r\nCatalonia accounts for about 40% of Spain’s GDP, so for this reason alone Madrid WILL NOT want to let it go anywhere, hence all the shenanigans. In my opinion, Catalonia is the biggest risk to the EUROZONE since GREECE. It is a massive risk to the Spanish economic recovery.\r\n\r\nI write this, but this is NOT reflected in the price action of the EURO at all. It is in a very tight range and has been for some time.\r\n\r\nWhat has now been created in the Catalan/Madrid crisis is nothing more than polarization.\r\n\r\nWhat is the way forward?\r\n\r\nBusinesses are looking to leave Catalonia. Catalonia would NOT be an instant member of the EU. How could it raise capital to operate? Maybe against future tax income? I see this as a credit event, enormous high risk and this whole matter appears to have not been thought out properly.\r\n\r\nPuidgemont tried to use the referendum vote to pressure Madrid for change, but that seems a tall order to say the least given the financial implications to Spain.\r\n\r\nThis will NOT end well. There will be more unrest to come, but unless a well-drawn out plan is visible, from the outside looking in, this is a mess. It simply cannot be good for the single currency the longer it drags on. Lines in the sand have been drawn and the political and economic risks are obvious on both sides.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nMario Draghi and the ECB governing council as I have mentioned before are taking massive doses of Prozac to try and keep themselves steady as decision day looms on ECB future monetary policy.\r\n\r\nDraghi has said “Based on our regular economic and monetary analyses, we decided to keep the key ECB interest rates unchanged. We expect them to remain at their present levels for an extended period of time, and <strong><u>WELL PAST</u></strong> the horizon of our net asset purchases”\r\n\r\nThat\'s pretty clear to me. The German’s however are not happy with this statement and want change.\r\n\r\nThe current rate of ECB QE (Quantitative Easing) bond buying is at €60 Billion per month. The rumours about this moving forward is that in two weeks’ time at the next ECB Press Conference, Draghi will announce a cut in the monthly purchases to €30 Billion per month from early 2018 and run this reduced volume for about 9 months before the “tapering” will end completely.\r\n\r\nSo… there you have it; forward guidance from the ECB in a nutshell and its very clear so that we can all understand and follow. Will the markets get it?\r\n\r\nHow do I intend to trade the single currency moving forward? For that you will need to subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>\r\nUSD</u></strong><u>: FOMC MEETING MINUTES and THE US DOLLAR INDEX (DXY).</u>\r\n\r\nWTF…\r\n\r\nThe minutes reflected the statement.\r\n\r\nHowever, the USD was sold off as I think that the reality of no inflation was starting to hit board members. These minutes were before the bombshell of “THE FED HAS NO CLUE ABOUT INFLATION” and Yellen’s “SIGNS OF INFLATION &amp; TRANSITORY” were used at the last press conference. The minutes were also written before Yellen’s comments regarding the Fed models on inflation calculations are basically crap and inept… those latter descriptive words were mine!!\r\n\r\nThe market sold off after the minutes, the fear of less tightening because of no inflation in 2018 may have rung a few alarm bells… finally. This market is fickle, it over reacts to old news repeatedly and can be painful to follow at times.\r\n\r\nI have found trading this year a challenge, to put it mildly.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nFED or not, the DXY is at a crossroads and we are either going sub 91.00 or higher through 94.00 in the coming sessions.\r\n\r\nAt times over these past weeks I am trading on the basis that the FED are raising rates period, and its pure Technicals on the DXY that will determine its direction. FED policy appears secondary.\r\n\r\nI still find it hard to be long the USD. It has, like I said last week sold off since the TRUMP inauguration. I am looking for reasons to be long the USD both FUNDAMENTALLY and TECHNICALLY. A week ago, I had oversold conditions as a reason that may influence the markets, those have now gone.\r\n\r\nMoving forward, THE DONALD wants low rates and a weak USD. The US will manipulate the USD lower if it has to, it has done so before.\r\n\r\nThis is my most watched chart of late and it will be over the coming sessions as I believe that this chart will be at the basis of most FX strategies being formulated for the short and medium terms moving forward.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/DXY-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10194\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/DXY-15102017-1024x516.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"516\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2: LOOKING AHEAD TO THIS COMING WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n2.2.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ECON-DATA-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10195\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ECON-DATA-15102017-1024x775.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"775\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.2: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/TCHART-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10196\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/TCHART-15102017-1024x838.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"838\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.3: USD – TRADING CHARTS and COMMENTARIES: </u>\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>EUR/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/EURUSD-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10207\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/EURUSD-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/GBPUSD-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10208\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/GBPUSD-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/AUDUSD-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10206\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/AUDUSD-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/NZDUSD-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10209\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/NZDUSD-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCAD-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10210\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCAD-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCHF-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10211\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCHF-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDJPY-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10212\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDJPY-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.4: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:</u>\r\n\r\nThankfully more economic data than last week to choose from. The following all UK based tickle my fancy…\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP:</u></strong><u> CPI, AVERAGE EARNINGS, RETAIL SALES &amp; CARNEY</u>.\r\n\r\nIt\'s a very awesome set up this week for UK news.\r\n\r\nInflation data, Average Earnings and Carney, you could not plan a diary better except for the fact I would have Carney speak after the Retails Sales numbers on Thursday, rather than have him fronting the news events.\r\n\r\nThis data will seal the fate of UK interest rates in November in my opinion. The BOE is ready to push up interest rates and stronger inflation data will probably seal that deal. If there is to be a spanner in the works, it will either come from the increased BREXIT uncertainty that is hanging over the markets at the moment or from the Average Earning Index if it still shows lagging too far behind inflation. However, I think the accountants at the BOE have Carney by the short and curly’s and the one and done hike I think he hopes will keep the wolves from the door.\r\n\r\nI wrote earlier in the blog about my concerns and the gamble I believe that this move would be, so I am not going to repeat myself.\r\n\r\nBy the time, Carney speaks we should know if the BREXIT transition deal is a runner or not or whether the government has rejected it, in which case it will be very interesting to hear what Carney has to say on this subject and if it will affect the BOE thought process on interest rate increases.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.5: HOW TO PLAY THE MARKET THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\nAs we ended last week with the USD getting whacked, one must expect this treat to carry forward into the start of trading this coming week.\r\n\r\nMy focus will be on the USD index (DXY). The level of 90.93 is crucial in my opinion. Should this level break, we could be heading to the mid 80’s. The possible effect of a move sub 90.93 should not be underestimated.\r\n\r\nFrom a macro level the FED are probably still going to hike in December but unless inflation picks up one should question whether the December 2017 rate increase will be the only one until the same time in 2018 (I am assuming that the new FED chairperson in February will play the usual game of stringing the markets along for the year on possible hikes, and make one at the year end to maintain credibility).\r\n\r\nHere are my thoughts: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Should the DXY break lower what happens to EUR/USD?</li>\r\n 	<li>The ECB does NOT want EUR/USD exchange rates above 1.2000. A mid 80’s print in the DXY would have EUR/USD closer to 1.2500 possibly above that level.</li>\r\n 	<li>The effects of a FED rate rise on the DXY should it already be towards the mid 80’s would be minimal.</li>\r\n 	<li>Other G8 Central Banks could not rely on the FED to counter balance any rate increases that they may have planned, as in my opinion the USD would be one weak “sister!”. Therefore, I believe the moves by other Central Banks to normalization or to raise their interest rates could be held back.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThose points are really for the future but they are with me at the moment. My focus would be on cross rate pairs until the situation with the USD has settled down. Trading the USD has an increased risk element attached to it at the moment given the geopolitical risks that would have a direct effect, therefore keeping way from the USD for a while in any event is perhaps not the worst trading idea.\r\n\r\nUp until the end of last week the EUR/AUD &amp; EUR/NZD were great options and they should be again once they have finished their corrective moves lower.\r\n\r\nYou DO NOT need to trade every day. Days when maybe you do not trade can be your best days as CASH is a position.\r\n\r\nThere is a lot for the market to digest at the present time on the heels of NFP. Let the market correct first and wait for it to give a trading signal.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is my own subscriber based Forex support service that offers subscribers my suggested trade set-ups and market commentaries.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting the HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE tab.\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT 2017 PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nOCTOBER 2017 TO DATE:           +160 net pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE 2017:                    +8,047 net pips\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs on my website  <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nAlternatively, if you prefer to watch a video recording about the PREMIUM SERVICE, click the link below. You will be directed to a 40-minute webinar presentation entitled “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE”.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS ONLY:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4.1: TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\nI added 160 pips last week, which frankly I thought there was little chance of doing, so I am happy.\r\n\r\nThe markets I think were surprised with the US inflation data last Friday. I expected HOT numbers and we got small misses across the board. The minimum anticipation was for at least in line prints. The moves that followed slight misses were extreme in a couple of cases which is now the normal response. Nevertheless, it was a miss, how the markets play with this data next week will be crucial. I suspect that unless something of a miracle happens we will sooner rather than later be testing the DXY support of 90.83.\r\n\r\nDuring last week, I spoke with a couple of you and brought up my current trading volumes and mentioned RISK MANAGEMENT, I promised that I would cover this point in this section of the blog this weekend.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.1.1: RISK MANAGEMENT AND POSITION SIZING:\r\n\r\nAt the moment, I have a larger than normal number of LIVE and LIMIT ORDERS placed across my brokers. Over the past few days talking with some subscribers, it quickly became apparent that some of you guys were running with way too much RISK and that whilst everyone’s RISK TOLERANCE is different, and I respect that, there was a need for me to update what already exists in “THE LIBRARY” with a 2017 version, although in my opinion, the rules are very similar, in fact still the same.\r\n\r\nTrading in the FX market has elephant traps set all over place, no matter which way we move to improve our trading returns there are barriers. The only constant that we can control is RISK.\r\n\r\nWhether trades are LIVE or LIMIT ORDERS, in my opinion we should assume that they are live trades and treat our RISK that way.\r\n\r\nThis is how I approach matters: -\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>I work on the basis that every trade has a STOP LOSS liability of 200 pips. (This average level allows for my moving of STOP levels from time to time and it also takes into consideration the mix of FT, RT, FUN &amp; POS trades).You can of course set up a spread sheet to give you exact numbers. I know from experience that I am not touching near to my 3% RISK LIMIT based upon the sizes of the broker accounts I have and my day to day use for the different categories of trades. However, the mix of trade styles is skewed at the moment and because of this my position sizing has been reduced to compensate.(This process does NOT however include one set of trading pairs which I have exempted from the main accounts into their own broker account. I am dealing with them on a very long time frame, already over two years, the AUD/NZD trades)</li>\r\n 	<li>This combined number of pips should then be multiplied up by trade size incorporating the mixture of MICRO, MINI and STANDARD lots to give you the actual total pip exposure.</li>\r\n 	<li>You can be clever and it requires a little work but if you are skilled enough you can have an actual CONTINGENT LIABILITY based on LIVE trades, and a future version based on LIMIT ORDERS as well as a combined version. This gives you complete 100% management.</li>\r\n 	<li>This is the calculated into $$$ value and this becomes what I call your CONTINGENT LIABILITY.</li>\r\n 	<li>It is your CONTINGENT LIABILITY expressed as a percentage to your broker account balance that gives you your RISK %.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nEXAMPLE:\r\n\r\nBROKER ACCOUNT BALANCE = USD$100,000.00\r\n\r\n15 LIVE TRADES\r\n10 LIMIT ORDER TRADES\r\n25 TOTAL TRADES\r\n25 x 200 pips\r\nRISK = 25 x 200 = 5,000 pips\r\n\r\nSINGLE MINI LOT TRADER = CONTINGENT LIABILITY of $5,000.00\r\n(This example assumes ALL trades are 1 x mini lot. You would need to factor in for micro and standard lot volumes if applicable)\r\n\r\nAs you know my RISK TOLERANCE = 3%, in this example the account has a RISK of 5%.\r\n\r\nEveryone has a different RISK TOLERANCE. If you are happy with 5%, 7%, 8% so be it is your money. However, if you are too exposed what can you do?\r\n\r\nWHAT TO DO TO FIX?\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>Add more funds to your broker account.</li>\r\n 	<li>Reduce position sizes so that exposure based upon a mix of MICRO, MINI and STANDARD lot trades are not greater than 3% of your broker account balance. (Or whatever your RISK TOLERANCE % is)</li>\r\n 	<li>Close positions to bring your RISK inside your tolerance level.</li>\r\n 	<li>Possibly if you understand how to do it, HEDGE your position as it stops RISK increasing but managing your way out of a hedged position can be difficult. It can take a long time as the best conditions should be directional with great momentum.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nDO I EVER BREAK MY 3% CEILING?\r\n\r\nNot in my main USD major or my JPY broker accounts because that is where my position sizes are usually larger.\r\n\r\nI mentioned this earlier, I have my one exception and it’s NOT a major break from my principles but I acknowledge it is different approach, but it is managed.\r\n\r\nAs many of you are aware from my existing trades and limit orders my NZD cross rate exposure, mainly through the AUD/NZD is well beyond the 3% when it is all said and done as I have added a lot more RISK to my NZD cross positions through the EUR/NZD, GBP/NZD and NZD/CAD.\r\n\r\nI operate all my NZD cross rate exposure through a separate broker account. My CONTINGENT LIABILITY is just over 5.5%. I have set my limit at 7%\r\n\r\nI control RISK through a combination of hedging and position sizing adjustments. My NZD is a long, long term CORE TRADE primarily on the AUD/NZD cross.\r\n\r\nThis has been a two-year trade so far and I see it operating for another two-years minimum. I wanted greater flexibility given my FUNDAMENTAL views and the period within I am proposing to work this trade.\r\n\r\nSUMMARY:\r\n\r\nI am very lucky, I can operate two large accounts (from my own values) and three smaller ones to manage trades through. The gap between my trading positions and the account balance may seem unrealistic at times especially for new traders to understand, however this is what RISK MANAGEMENT is all about.\r\n\r\nThere is never a threat about a margin call and three or four bad trades will not KILL the account, it hurts me, but that\'s trading.\r\n\r\nI am here for the long haul. Longevity in trading is about patience and being sidelined quite a bit if you are NOT happy with the conditions.\r\n\r\nI am not sure whether this helps, I hope it does not confuse.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.2: SENTIMENT CHART,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:</u>\r\n\r\nThis bizarre market continues to baffle me.\r\n\r\nLast week, I thought that a HAWKISH FED would produce USD strength across the board – we saw weakness.\r\n\r\nSpanish police dragging people away from polling booths followed by a possible declaration of independence I thought would be bad news from whatever perspective viewed for the EURO – it did nothing, hardly moved.\r\n\r\nAs a FUNDAMENTAL trader, I find myself trading semi FUNDAMENTAL and adjusting my style, approach and thoughts constantly.\r\n\r\nI am still comfortable being long AUD/NZD. I still believe the NZD currency is over-valued and fair value is closer to 0.6500 (NZD/USD). This makes me comfortable being long the EUR/NZD and GBP/NZD cross rates.\r\n\r\nIn addition, should the JPY correct lower, which is very possible, it should bring all JPY pairs lower with it eventually. This should be a RISK event therefore, the EUR/AUD, EUR/NZD, GBP/AUD and GBP/NZD should move higher.\r\n\r\nThe EURO is now confusing me, following Draghi’s very clear comments earlier this month. Absolutely clear forward guidance, better than Yellen and Carney added together.\r\n\r\nThe AUD, despite comments from the RBA, I think could be on a corrective move higher before heading lower again. Whilst this helps my AUD/NZD trade it does nothing for my EUR/AUD or GBP/AUD trades, although the latter is hedged at a 200-pip loss. Also, the JPY has a place to play here as already mentioned.\r\n\r\nDo not get me started on the fecking pig of a currency the cable. I just do not know where Theresa May and the then the BOE are going to go with this one especially if the EU grant a two-year extension to the Article 50 deadline date under the guise of transitional time. What happens if the EU says no extension?  Whooooooooooosh…. It could be the outcome, who knows?\r\n\r\nThe CAD, I was clear on its move lower through 1.2000 (USD/CAD) but it is struggling with 1.2460. In addition, you weigh in the comments from Poloz and the well-known phrase I used to be decisive and now I am not quite sure and that sums up the markets view of the loonie.\r\n\r\nI think if NAFTA remains with Canada and the U.S. with a cross border trading alliance this will do the trick and put some lead in the pencil of the CAD$ and it should strengthen as a result. The economic data that couldn’t miss for months back to back has tailed off at late. So, with rate hikes from the BOC being data dependent this needs to improve.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/SENTIMENT-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10197\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/SENTIMENT-15102017-771x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"771\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>4.3: EXISTING CORE TRADES (PLANS &amp; STRATEGIES):</u>\r\n\r\nBasically, I am STILL bearish the CAD and NZD currencies. As eluded to earlier I am looking short-term at adding the AUD to my bearish positioning.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE CAD:</u></strong>\r\nCurrently, I am live the following: -\r\n\r\n2 x live short USD/CAD trades\r\n\r\nPlus: - I have BUY STOP limit orders in position for the CAD/CHF and CAD/JPY and 2 x short LIMIT ORDERS with USD/CAD.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: Is to wait as per my comments above in section 4.2\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE NZD</u></strong>:\r\n\r\nCurrently I have 3 x live long AUD/NZD trades and 2 x EUR/NZD long trades plus a short NZD/JPY trade.\r\n\r\nI still hold a hedged long GBP/NZD trade to cover increased market uncertainties in the short term. My maximum loss on the trade is limited to 300 pips out of a Monthly ATR of c.1,300 pips. I am not in any rush to work my way out of this position.\r\n\r\nPlus: - I have 2 x AUD/NZD and a further 3 x GBP/NZD limit order trades in position.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: I am waiting for the market to reset before adding additional trades.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.4: CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\nCURRENT LIVE TRADES:\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LIVE-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10199\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LIVE-15102017-825x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"825\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\nCURRENT LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LIMIT-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10198\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LIMIT-15102017-900x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"900\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.5: FX BROKER NEWS with their MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\nAbsolutely nothing new to add here this week.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FINISHING LINE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5.1: WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you have read in this blog and would like the chance to win a FREE SUBSCRIPTION valued at CAD$150.00, all you should do is subscribe to my FREE NEWSLETTER (this blog), by adding your email address on my welcome page just below my cube logo at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\n<u>5.2: PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTIONS:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you’ve read in this blog and should you want to go a stage further and subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE, this can be done on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the Tab SUBSCRIBE HERE.\r\n\r\nSubscribing to the PREMIUM SERVICE is not just about receiving a larger “DRIVE THRU” blog packed with more trading supporting information, my thoughts and ideas. There is much more to a subscription than those things. Check it all out under the tab HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nAlternatively, if you prefer to watch a video recording about the PREMIUM SERVICE, click the link below. You will be directed to a 40-minute webinar presentation entitled “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE”.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n5.3: CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\n\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #151 PREMIUM SERVICE\r\n15th October 2017\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','THE EU TROJAN HORSE','','inherit','closed','closed','','10213-revision-v1','','','2017-10-14 07:51:13','2017-10-14 12:51:13','',10213,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/10213-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(10214,1,'2017-10-14 07:42:25','2017-10-14 12:42:25','&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nLast week was a light week for economic data but wow the news events were crazy. From a trading viewpoint, I had to split the week into two halves.\r\n\r\nMonday thru Wednesday was boring, boring, boring. Where has the volatility gone? I tweeted out several times phrases such as “chop fest”, “lots of flashing lights”. We can put lipstick on this market but the bottom line is “it is a PIG” the volatility that used to there has to a large extent dried up. If I wanted to look at flashing lights all day, I’ll put up the Christmas Tree early, this is a bit boring.\r\n\r\nThen on Thursday and Friday, Holy Mother of God, it was wild. BREXIT spiced it up, Draghi followed and the US inflation data was a small miss but OMG the market reaction was huge, probably due to the implications it could have on FED rate hikes in 2018.\r\n\r\nI added net pips but I also took losses on Friday. Annoying as it was, my CONTINGENT LIABILITY of all trades and limit orders added to together, was not at my limits but it was higher than usual due to quantity of trades I have at the moment.\r\n\r\nLooking towards the weekend with the geopolitical concerns still out there and the fact that these moves could motor into this week’s early trading, I decided to cut them out. I banked losses of just over 200 pips. The net pip increase for the week was therefore only 160 pips.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:\r\n\r\n</strong><u>2.1: LOOKING BACK AT LAST WEEK’S NEWS.</u></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nOnly two pieces of news last week resonated with me for this section and regular readers will not be surprised by my choices.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>\r\nGBP</u></strong><u>: BREXIT NEGOTIATIONS REACH DEADLOCK then AN OLIVE BRANCH?</u>\r\n\r\nWell, “Glaze my nipples and call me Rita”, in the name of sanity what the bloody hell did the markets expect… a result?\r\n\r\nFor crying out loud, the clues have been stronger and stronger. The UK has been mentioning preparation for a “No deal” a lot recently.\r\n\r\nLast Thursday, after round 4 or 5 of the DIVORCE negotiations, the EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier and the UK equivalent MP and Tory Government Cabinet member David Davis announced the negotiations were deadlocked.\r\n\r\nQuelle bloody surprise!\r\n\r\nThe EU presented a running order of protocol to be ticked off in a strict A to B to C to D order, all nice and easy to follow. The Brits like the idea of D to B to A and then C. The obvious result is deadlock. So with the anticipation of deadlock, the decision to release more and more “sound bytes” about a “No deal” was probably a tactic to try to change the viewpoint of the EU.\r\n\r\nCable sold off, then later the same day out it comes from Barnier, what appears like a concession. Cable spikes back to remove all prior losses.\r\n\r\nMichel Barnier offers a two year “transition extension”. An olive branch, my arse it was not, it was pure genius.  This offer, ties the UK to meeting all EU financial obligations for an additional two years beyond the Article 50 deadline. Basically, in a nutshell… sure we’ll extend everything, but you have to meet all of our rules and regulations in the transition process.\r\n\r\nStep back for a moment....\r\n\r\nThe UK head negotiator (David Davis) is a politician who cannot appear weak as he would be slaughtered in both the Cabinet (behind closed doors) and (publicly ridiculed) in the UK House of Commons. The pressure not to give way on anything is massive, personally and politically as this will be in record books of his public service career.  All the pressure is on his head to achieve the best deal possible, which for the UK, is basically appearing to remain inside the EU but with border controls.\r\n\r\nThe EU chief negotiator is Michel Barnier. He is a French Republican Politician. He is representing 27 countries. His job is to follow the negotiation road map given to him by the “jotter blotters” in Brussels. This will at conclusion be presented to the 27 leaders of the EU for them to ratify.\r\n\r\nBarnier, although I am sure wants to do a great job, couldn’t give a rat’s ass about any fallout because all the pressure is on the UK. He can hold his hands aloft and claim to eternity that he has his road map that must be followed in order. Whether the UK are at fault or not, the blame for any negotiating breakdown can be switched very easily and all the pressure put back across the English Channel. Put yourself in Barnier’s position; it’s a high-profile role and it\'s a win, win no lose job. He just has to follow the guidelines. The transition deal if accepted was a gem in my opinion.\r\n\r\nOffering the two-year transition that Prime Minister May requested is a master stroke from Barnier. He gets the guarantee of badly needed money from the UK into the coffers of the EU in Brussels. It is the equivalent of a modern day “TROJAN HORSE”. However, this is NOT a done deal it needs to be ratified by at least Germany for it to be a runner.\r\n\r\nI still giggle at the HARD BREXIT versus SOFT BREXIT calls made by the media.\r\n\r\nA two-year transition does NOT automatically = SOFT BREXIT\r\n\r\nSOFT BREXIT = CONTAGION…. not going to happen\r\nSOFT BREXIT = CHERRY PICKING… not going to happen\r\n\r\nIf the transition deal is agreed it is nothing more than “Can kicking the issue down the road”.\r\n\r\nAt the back of my cynical mind; Theresa May requests the transition extension, this means that the Article 50 deadline date would now shift to March 2021, what could happen in the interim?\r\n\r\nNew parliamentary elections would have taken place.\r\nMaybe a new referendum on BREXIT?\r\nMaybe another Scottish Independence vote?\r\nA new Prime Minister of a new Government.\r\nA new (God help them) Minister in charge of negotiating the “divorce”.\r\n\r\nTheresa May effectively engineers her own BREXIT deal. She passes the poisoned chalice on.\r\n\r\nThe transition is not yet a done deal. This whole process is still covered in masses of uncertainties. I have no doubt some progress has been made but for the medias sake it’s all put forward as deadlock so far.\r\n\r\nThere simply was never enough time. I wrote months ago that it took Greenland with no way near the same complications of agreements as the UK to leave the full two-year limit. The UK was always going to be longer, it much more integrated and complicated.\r\n\r\nThis is still a huge unknown.\r\n\r\nIf the EU says no to the two-year transition, what then?\r\n\r\nCable drops like a brick because a “NO DEAL” walkaway looks to be the most obvious outcome?\r\n\r\nI know that the BOE have been relatively quiet of late, but I still find the news that the BOE are still considering a rate hike in amongst all this uncertainty plus a series of recent poor economic data more than outweighing any good data, incredible to consider, and frankly, its worthy of a comparison with a Las Vegas high stakes poker room gamble.\r\n\r\nThe latest BCC (British Chamber of Commerce) Quarterly Economic survey of businesses (what a great read), whilst it would send most people to sleep, its overall summation on the current UK economic position from its members was “uninspiring”. Now that\'s what I call a real vote of confidence…. NOT!\r\n\r\nTo raise rates with so much up in the air is a; huge / massive / almighty gamble in my opinion. Not befitting a responsible Central Bank.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>ECB:</u></strong><u> CATALONIA and MARIO DRAGHI (ECB). </u>\r\n\r\nYou couldn’t make this stuff up.\r\n\r\nThe Catalonian declaration of independence was placed on hold, whist the Catalan president Carles Puidegemont stated that it would be suspended whilst he held talks with Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rahoy, who has already basically told him to feck off…. In the nicest possible terms.\r\n\r\nCatalonia accounts for about 40% of Spain’s GDP, so for this reason alone Madrid WILL NOT want to let it go anywhere, hence all the shenanigans. In my opinion, Catalonia is the biggest risk to the EUROZONE since GREECE. It is a massive risk to the Spanish economic recovery.\r\n\r\nI write this, but this is NOT reflected in the price action of the EURO at all. It is in a very tight range and has been for some time.\r\n\r\nWhat has now been created in the Catalan/Madrid crisis is nothing more than polarization.\r\n\r\nWhat is the way forward?\r\n\r\nBusinesses are looking to leave Catalonia. Catalonia would NOT be an instant member of the EU. How could it raise capital to operate? Maybe against future tax income? I see this as a credit event, enormous high risk and this whole matter appears to have not been thought out properly.\r\n\r\nPuidgemont tried to use the referendum vote to pressure Madrid for change, but that seems a tall order to say the least given the financial implications to Spain.\r\n\r\nThis will NOT end well. There will be more unrest to come, but unless a well-drawn out plan is visible, from the outside looking in, this is a mess. It simply cannot be good for the single currency the longer it drags on. Lines in the sand have been drawn and the political and economic risks are obvious on both sides.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nMario Draghi and the ECB governing council as I have mentioned before are taking massive doses of Prozac to try and keep themselves steady as decision day looms on ECB future monetary policy.\r\n\r\nDraghi has said “Based on our regular economic and monetary analyses, we decided to keep the key ECB interest rates unchanged. We expect them to remain at their present levels for an extended period of time, and <strong><u>WELL PAST</u></strong> the horizon of our net asset purchases”\r\n\r\nThat\'s pretty clear to me. The German’s however are not happy with this statement and want change.\r\n\r\nThe current rate of ECB QE (Quantitative Easing) bond buying is at €60 Billion per month. The rumours about this moving forward is that in two weeks’ time at the next ECB Press Conference, Draghi will announce a cut in the monthly purchases to €30 Billion per month from early 2018 and run this reduced volume for about 9 months before the “tapering” will end completely.\r\n\r\nSo… there you have it; forward guidance from the ECB in a nutshell and its very clear so that we can all understand and follow. Will the markets get it?\r\n\r\nHow do I intend to trade the single currency moving forward? For that you will need to subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>\r\nUSD</u></strong><u>: FOMC MEETING MINUTES and THE US DOLLAR INDEX (DXY).</u>\r\n\r\nWTF…\r\n\r\nThe minutes reflected the statement.\r\n\r\nHowever, the USD was sold off as I think that the reality of no inflation was starting to hit board members. These minutes were before the bombshell of “THE FED HAS NO CLUE ABOUT INFLATION” and Yellen’s “SIGNS OF INFLATION &amp; TRANSITORY” were used at the last press conference. The minutes were also written before Yellen’s comments regarding the Fed models on inflation calculations are basically crap and inept… those latter descriptive words were mine!!\r\n\r\nThe market sold off after the minutes, the fear of less tightening because of no inflation in 2018 may have rung a few alarm bells… finally. This market is fickle, it over reacts to old news repeatedly and can be painful to follow at times.\r\n\r\nI have found trading this year a challenge, to put it mildly.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nFED or not, the DXY is at a crossroads and we are either going sub 91.00 or higher through 94.00 in the coming sessions.\r\n\r\nAt times over these past weeks I am trading on the basis that the FED are raising rates period, and its pure Technicals on the DXY that will determine its direction. FED policy appears secondary.\r\n\r\nI still find it hard to be long the USD. It has, like I said last week sold off since the TRUMP inauguration. I am looking for reasons to be long the USD both FUNDAMENTALLY and TECHNICALLY. A week ago, I had oversold conditions as a reason that may influence the markets, those have now gone.\r\n\r\nMoving forward, THE DONALD wants low rates and a weak USD. The US will manipulate the USD lower if it has to, it has done so before.\r\n\r\nThis is my most watched chart of late and it will be over the coming sessions as I believe that this chart will be at the basis of most FX strategies being formulated for the short and medium terms moving forward.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/DXY-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10194\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/DXY-15102017-1024x516.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"516\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2: LOOKING AHEAD TO THIS COMING WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n2.2.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ECON-DATA-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10195\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ECON-DATA-15102017-1024x775.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"775\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.2: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/TCHART-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10196\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/TCHART-15102017-1024x838.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"838\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.3: USD – TRADING CHARTS and COMMENTARIES: </u>\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>EUR/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/EURUSD-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10207\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/EURUSD-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/GBPUSD-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10208\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/GBPUSD-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/AUDUSD-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10206\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/AUDUSD-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/NZDUSD-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10209\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/NZDUSD-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCAD-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10210\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCAD-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCHF-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10211\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCHF-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDJPY-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10212\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDJPY-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.4: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:\r\n\r\n</u>Thankfully more economic data than last week to choose from. The following all UK based tickle my fancy…\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP:</u></strong><u> CPI, AVERAGE EARNINGS, RETAIL SALES &amp; CARNEY</u>.\r\n\r\nIt\'s a very awesome set up this week for UK news.\r\n\r\nInflation data, Average Earnings and Carney, you could not plan a diary better except for the fact I would have Carney speak after the Retails Sales numbers on Thursday, rather than have him fronting the news events.\r\n\r\nThis data will seal the fate of UK interest rates in November in my opinion. The BOE is ready to push up interest rates and stronger inflation data will probably seal that deal. If there is to be a spanner in the works, it will either come from the increased BREXIT uncertainty that is hanging over the markets at the moment or from the Average Earning Index if it still shows lagging too far behind inflation. However, I think the accountants at the BOE have Carney by the short and curly’s and the one and done hike I think he hopes will keep the wolves from the door.\r\n\r\nI wrote earlier in the blog about my concerns and the gamble I believe that this move would be, so I am not going to repeat myself.\r\n\r\nBy the time, Carney speaks we should know if the BREXIT transition deal is a runner or not or whether the government has rejected it, in which case it will be very interesting to hear what Carney has to say on this subject and if it will affect the BOE thought process on interest rate increases.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.5: HOW TO PLAY THE MARKET THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\nAs we ended last week with the USD getting whacked, one must expect this treat to carry forward into the start of trading this coming week.\r\n\r\nMy focus will be on the USD index (DXY). The level of 90.93 is crucial in my opinion. Should this level break, we could be heading to the mid 80’s. The possible effect of a move sub 90.93 should not be underestimated.\r\n\r\nFrom a macro level the FED are probably still going to hike in December but unless inflation picks up one should question whether the December 2017 rate increase will be the only one until the same time in 2018 (I am assuming that the new FED chairperson in February will play the usual game of stringing the markets along for the year on possible hikes, and make one at the year end to maintain credibility).\r\n\r\nHere are my thoughts: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Should the DXY break lower what happens to EUR/USD?</li>\r\n 	<li>The ECB does NOT want EUR/USD exchange rates above 1.2000. A mid 80’s print in the DXY would have EUR/USD closer to 1.2500 possibly above that level.</li>\r\n 	<li>The effects of a FED rate rise on the DXY should it already be towards the mid 80’s would be minimal.</li>\r\n 	<li>Other G8 Central Banks could not rely on the FED to counter balance any rate increases that they may have planned, as in my opinion the USD would be one weak “sister!”. Therefore, I believe the moves by other Central Banks to normalization or to raise their interest rates could be held back.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThose points are really for the future but they are with me at the moment. My focus would be on cross rate pairs until the situation with the USD has settled down. Trading the USD has an increased risk element attached to it at the moment given the geopolitical risks that would have a direct effect, therefore keeping way from the USD for a while in any event is perhaps not the worst trading idea.\r\n\r\nUp until the end of last week the EUR/AUD &amp; EUR/NZD were great options and they should be again once they have finished their corrective moves lower.\r\n\r\nYou DO NOT need to trade every day. Days when maybe you do not trade can be your best days as CASH is a position.\r\n\r\nThere is a lot for the market to digest at the present time on the heels of NFP. Let the market correct first and wait for it to give a trading signal.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is my own subscriber based Forex support service that offers subscribers my suggested trade set-ups and market commentaries.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting the HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE tab.\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT 2017 PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nOCTOBER 2017 TO DATE:           +160 net pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE 2017:                    +8,047 net pips\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs on my website  <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nAlternatively, if you prefer to watch a video recording about the PREMIUM SERVICE, click the link below. You will be directed to a 40-minute webinar presentation entitled “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE”.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS ONLY:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4.1: TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\nI added 160 pips last week, which frankly I thought there was little chance of doing, so I am happy.\r\n\r\nThe markets I think were surprised with the US inflation data last Friday. I expected HOT numbers and we got small misses across the board. The minimum anticipation was for at least in line prints. The moves that followed slight misses were extreme in a couple of cases which is now the normal response. Nevertheless, it was a miss, how the markets play with this data next week will be crucial. I suspect that unless something of a miracle happens we will sooner rather than later be testing the DXY support of 90.83.\r\n\r\nDuring last week, I spoke with a couple of you and brought up my current trading volumes and mentioned RISK MANAGEMENT, I promised that I would cover this point in this section of the blog this weekend.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.1.1: RISK MANAGEMENT AND POSITION SIZING:\r\nAt the moment, I have a larger than normal number of LIVE and LIMIT ORDERS placed across my brokers. Over the past few days talking with some subscribers, it quickly became apparent that some of you guys were running with way too much RISK and that whilst everyone’s RISK TOLERANCE is different, and I respect that, there was a need for me to update what already exists in “THE LIBRARY” with a 2017 version, although in my opinion, the rules are very similar, in fact still the same.\r\n\r\nTrading in the FX market has elephant traps set all over place, no matter which way we move to improve our trading returns there are barriers. The only constant that we can control is RISK.\r\n\r\nWhether trades are LIVE or LIMIT ORDERS, in my opinion we should assume that they are live trades and treat our RISK that way.\r\n\r\nThis is how I approach matters: -\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>I work on the basis that every trade has a STOP LOSS liability of 200 pips. (This average level allows for my moving of STOP levels from time to time and it also takes into consideration the mix of FT, RT, FUN &amp; POS trades).\r\n\r\nYou can of course set up a spread sheet to give you exact numbers. I know from experience that I am not touching near to my 3% RISK LIMIT based upon the sizes of the broker accounts I have and my day to day use for the different categories of trades. However, the mix of trade styles is skewed at the moment and because of this my position sizing has been reduced to compensate.\r\n\r\n(This process does NOT however include one set of trading pairs which I have exempted from the main accounts into their own broker account. I am dealing with them on a very long time frame, already over two years, the AUD/NZD trades)</li>\r\n 	<li>This combined number of pips should then be multiplied up by trade size incorporating the mixture of MICRO, MINI and STANDARD lots to give you the actual total pip exposure.</li>\r\n 	<li>You can be clever and it requires a little work but if you are skilled enough you can have an actual CONTINGENT LIABILITY based on LIVE trades, and a future version based on LIMIT ORDERS as well as a combined version. This gives you complete 100% management.</li>\r\n 	<li>This is the calculated into $$$ value and this becomes what I call your CONTINGENT LIABILITY.</li>\r\n 	<li>It is your CONTINGENT LIABILITY expressed as a percentage to your broker account balance that gives you your RISK %.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nEXAMPLE:\r\n\r\nBROKER ACCOUNT BALANCE = USD$100,000.00\r\n\r\n15 LIVE TRADES\r\n10 LIMIT ORDER TRADES\r\n25 TOTAL TRADES\r\n25 x 200 pips\r\nRISK = 25 x 200 = 5,000 pips\r\n\r\nSINGLE MINI LOT TRADER = CONTINGENT LIABILITY of $5,000.00\r\n(This example assumes ALL trades are 1 x mini lot. You would need to factor in for micro and standard lot volumes if applicable)\r\n\r\nAs you know my RISK TOLERANCE = 3%, in this example the account has a RISK of 5%.\r\n\r\nEveryone has a different RISK TOLERANCE. If you are happy with 5%, 7%, 8% so be it is your money. However, if you are too exposed what can you do?\r\n\r\nWHAT TO DO TO FIX?\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>Add more funds to your broker account.</li>\r\n 	<li>Reduce position sizes so that exposure based upon a mix of MICRO, MINI and STANDARD lot trades are not greater than 3% of your broker account balance. (Or whatever your RISK TOLERANCE % is)</li>\r\n 	<li>Close positions to bring your RISK inside your tolerance level.</li>\r\n 	<li>Possibly if you understand how to do it, HEDGE your position as it stops RISK increasing but managing your way out of a hedged position can be difficult. It can take a long time as the best conditions should be directional with great momentum.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nDO I EVER BREAK MY 3% CEILING?\r\n\r\nNot in my main USD major or my JPY broker accounts because that is where my position sizes are usually larger.\r\n\r\nI mentioned this earlier, I have my one exception and it’s NOT a major break from my principles but I acknowledge it is different approach, but it is managed.\r\n\r\nAs many of you are aware from my existing trades and limit orders my NZD cross rate exposure, mainly through the AUD/NZD is well beyond the 3% when it is all said and done as I have added a lot more RISK to my NZD cross positions through the EUR/NZD, GBP/NZD and NZD/CAD.\r\n\r\nI operate all my NZD cross rate exposure through a separate broker account. My CONTINGENT LIABILITY is just over 5.5%. I have set my limit at 7%\r\n\r\nI control RISK through a combination of hedging and position sizing adjustments. My NZD is a long, long term CORE TRADE primarily on the AUD/NZD cross.\r\n\r\nThis has been a two-year trade so far and I see it operating for another two-years minimum. I wanted greater flexibility given my FUNDAMENTAL views and the period within I am proposing to work this trade.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nSUMMARY:\r\n\r\nI am very lucky, I can operate two large accounts (from my own values) and three smaller ones to manage trades through. The gap between my trading positions and the account balance may seem unrealistic at times especially for new traders to understand, however this is what RISK MANAGEMENT is all about.\r\n\r\nThere is never a threat about a margin call and three or four bad trades will not KILL the account, it hurts me, but that\'s trading.\r\n\r\nI am here for the long haul. Longevity in trading is about patience and being sidelined quite a bit if you are NOT happy with the conditions.\r\n\r\nI am not sure whether this helps, I hope it does not confuse.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n\r\n</u><u>4.2: SENTIMENT CHART,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:\r\n\r\n</u>\r\n\r\nThis bizarre market continues to baffle me.\r\n\r\nLast week, I thought that a HAWKISH FED would produce USD strength across the board – we saw weakness.\r\n\r\nSpanish police dragging people away from polling booths followed by a possible declaration of independence I thought would be bad news from whatever perspective viewed for the EURO – it did nothing, hardly moved.\r\n\r\nAs a FUNDAMENTAL trader, I find myself trading semi FUNDAMENTAL and adjusting my style, approach and thoughts constantly.\r\n\r\nI am still comfortable being long AUD/NZD. I still believe the NZD currency is over-valued and fair value is closer to 0.6500 (NZD/USD). This makes me comfortable being long the EUR/NZD and GBP/NZD cross rates.\r\n\r\nIn addition, should the JPY correct lower, which is very possible, it should bring all JPY pairs lower with it eventually. This should be a RISK event therefore, the EUR/AUD, EUR/NZD, GBP/AUD and GBP/NZD should move higher.\r\n\r\nThe EURO is now confusing me, following Draghi’s very clear comments earlier this month. Absolutely clear forward guidance, better than Yellen and Carney added together.\r\n\r\nThe AUD, despite comments from the RBA, I think could be on a corrective move higher before heading lower again. Whilst this helps my AUD/NZD trade it does nothing for my EUR/AUD or GBP/AUD trades, although the latter is hedged at a 200-pip loss. Also, the JPY has a place to play here as already mentioned.\r\n\r\nDo not get me started on the fecking pig of a currency the cable. I just do not know where Theresa May and the then the BOE are going to go with this one especially if the EU grant a two-year extension to the Article 50 deadline date under the guise of transitional time. What happens if the EU says no extension?  Whooooooooooosh…. It could be the outcome, who knows?\r\n\r\nThe CAD, I was clear on its move lower through 1.2000 (USD/CAD) but it is struggling with 1.2460. In addition, you weigh in the comments from Poloz and the well-known phrase I used to be decisive and now I am not quite sure and that sums up the markets view of the loonie.\r\n\r\nI think if NAFTA remains with Canada and the U.S. with a cross border trading alliance this will do the trick and put some lead in the pencil of the CAD$ and it should strengthen as a result. The economic data that couldn’t miss for months back to back has tailed off at late. So, with rate hikes from the BOC being data dependent this needs to improve.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/SENTIMENT-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10197\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/SENTIMENT-15102017-771x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"771\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>4.3: EXISTING CORE TRADES (PLANS &amp; STRATEGIES):</u>\r\n\r\nBasically, I am STILL bearish the CAD and NZD currencies. As eluded to earlier I am looking short-term at adding the AUD to my bearish positioning.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE CAD:</u></strong>\r\nCurrently, I am live the following: -\r\n\r\n2 x live short USD/CAD trades\r\n\r\nPlus: - I have BUY STOP limit orders in position for the CAD/CHF and CAD/JPY and 2 x short LIMIT ORDERS with USD/CAD.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: Is to wait as per my comments above in section 4.2\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE NZD</u></strong>:\r\n\r\nCurrently I have 3 x live long AUD/NZD trades and 2 x EUR/NZD long trades plus a short NZD/JPY trade.\r\n\r\nI still hold a hedged long GBP/NZD trade to cover increased market uncertainties in the short term. My maximum loss on the trade is limited to 300 pips out of a Monthly ATR of c.1,300 pips. I am not in any rush to work my way out of this position.\r\n\r\nPlus: - I have 2 x AUD/NZD and a further 3 x GBP/NZD limit order trades in position.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: I am waiting for the market to reset before adding additional trades.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.4: CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\nCURRENT LIVE TRADES:\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LIVE-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10199\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LIVE-15102017-825x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"825\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\nCURRENT LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LIMIT-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10198\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LIMIT-15102017-900x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"900\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.5: FX BROKER NEWS with their MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\nAbsolutely nothing new to add here this week.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FINISHING LINE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5.1: WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you have read in this blog and would like the chance to win a FREE SUBSCRIPTION valued at CAD$150.00, all you should do is subscribe to my FREE NEWSLETTER (this blog), by adding your email address on my welcome page just below my cube logo at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\n<u>5.2: PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTIONS:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you’ve read in this blog and should you want to go a stage further and subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE, this can be done on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the Tab SUBSCRIBE HERE.\r\n\r\nSubscribing to the PREMIUM SERVICE is not just about receiving a larger “DRIVE THRU” blog packed with more trading supporting information, my thoughts and ideas. There is much more to a subscription than those things. Check it all out under the tab HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nAlternatively, if you prefer to watch a video recording about the PREMIUM SERVICE, click the link below. You will be directed to a 40-minute webinar presentation entitled “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE”.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n5.3: CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\n\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #151 PREMIUM SERVICE\r\n15th October 2017\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','THE EU TROJAN HORSE','','inherit','closed','closed','','10213-revision-v1','','','2017-10-14 07:42:25','2017-10-14 12:42:25','',10213,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/10213-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(10216,1,'2017-10-14 07:51:01','2017-10-14 12:51:01','&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nLast week was a light week for economic data but wow the news events were crazy. From a trading viewpoint, I had to split the week into two halves.\r\n\r\nMonday thru Wednesday was boring, boring, boring. Where has the volatility gone? I tweeted out several times phrases such as “chop fest”, “lots of flashing lights”. We can put lipstick on this market but the bottom line is “it is a PIG” the volatility that used to there has to a large extent dried up. If I wanted to look at flashing lights all day, I’ll put up the Christmas Tree early, this is a bit boring.\r\n\r\nThen on Thursday and Friday, Holy Mother of God, it was wild. BREXIT spiced it up, Draghi followed and the US inflation data was a small miss but OMG the market reaction was huge, probably due to the implications it could have on FED rate hikes in 2018.\r\n\r\nI added net pips but I also took losses on Friday. Annoying as it was, my CONTINGENT LIABILITY of all trades and limit orders added to together, was not at my limits but it was higher than usual due to quantity of trades I have at the moment.\r\n\r\nLooking towards the weekend with the geopolitical concerns still out there and the fact that these moves could motor into this week’s early trading, I decided to cut them out. I banked losses of just over 200 pips. The net pip increase for the week was therefore only 160 pips.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong></strong><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong>&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.1: LOOKING BACK AT LAST WEEK’S NEWS.</u></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nOnly two pieces of news last week resonated with me for this section and regular readers will not be surprised by my choices.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>\r\nGBP</u></strong><u>: BREXIT NEGOTIATIONS REACH DEADLOCK then AN OLIVE BRANCH?</u>\r\n\r\nWell, “Glaze my nipples and call me Rita”, in the name of sanity what the bloody hell did the markets expect… a result?\r\n\r\nFor crying out loud, the clues have been stronger and stronger. The UK has been mentioning preparation for a “No deal” a lot recently.\r\n\r\nLast Thursday, after round 4 or 5 of the DIVORCE negotiations, the EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier and the UK equivalent MP and Tory Government Cabinet member David Davis announced the negotiations were deadlocked.\r\n\r\nQuelle bloody surprise!\r\n\r\nThe EU presented a running order of protocol to be ticked off in a strict A to B to C to D order, all nice and easy to follow. The Brits like the idea of D to B to A and then C. The obvious result is deadlock. So with the anticipation of deadlock, the decision to release more and more “sound bytes” about a “No deal” was probably a tactic to try to change the viewpoint of the EU.\r\n\r\nCable sold off, then later the same day out it comes from Barnier, what appears like a concession. Cable spikes back to remove all prior losses.\r\n\r\nMichel Barnier offers a two year “transition extension”. An olive branch, my arse it was not, it was pure genius.  This offer, ties the UK to meeting all EU financial obligations for an additional two years beyond the Article 50 deadline. Basically, in a nutshell… sure we’ll extend everything, but you have to meet all of our rules and regulations in the transition process.\r\n\r\nStep back for a moment....\r\n\r\nThe UK head negotiator (David Davis) is a politician who cannot appear weak as he would be slaughtered in both the Cabinet (behind closed doors) and (publicly ridiculed) in the UK House of Commons. The pressure not to give way on anything is massive, personally and politically as this will be in record books of his public service career.  All the pressure is on his head to achieve the best deal possible, which for the UK, is basically appearing to remain inside the EU but with border controls.\r\n\r\nThe EU chief negotiator is Michel Barnier. He is a French Republican Politician. He is representing 27 countries. His job is to follow the negotiation road map given to him by the “jotter blotters” in Brussels. This will at conclusion be presented to the 27 leaders of the EU for them to ratify.\r\n\r\nBarnier, although I am sure wants to do a great job, couldn’t give a rat’s ass about any fallout because all the pressure is on the UK. He can hold his hands aloft and claim to eternity that he has his road map that must be followed in order. Whether the UK are at fault or not, the blame for any negotiating breakdown can be switched very easily and all the pressure put back across the English Channel. Put yourself in Barnier’s position; it’s a high-profile role and it\'s a win, win no lose job. He just has to follow the guidelines. The transition deal if accepted was a gem in my opinion.\r\n\r\nOffering the two-year transition that Prime Minister May requested is a master stroke from Barnier. He gets the guarantee of badly needed money from the UK into the coffers of the EU in Brussels. It is the equivalent of a modern day “TROJAN HORSE”. However, this is NOT a done deal it needs to be ratified by at least Germany for it to be a runner.\r\n\r\nI still giggle at the HARD BREXIT versus SOFT BREXIT calls made by the media.\r\n\r\nA two-year transition does NOT automatically = SOFT BREXIT\r\n\r\nSOFT BREXIT = CONTAGION…. not going to happen\r\nSOFT BREXIT = CHERRY PICKING… not going to happen\r\n\r\nIf the transition deal is agreed it is nothing more than “Can kicking the issue down the road”.\r\n\r\nAt the back of my cynical mind; Theresa May requests the transition extension, this means that the Article 50 deadline date would now shift to March 2021, what could happen in the interim?\r\n\r\nNew parliamentary elections would have taken place.\r\nMaybe a new referendum on BREXIT?\r\nMaybe another Scottish Independence vote?\r\nA new Prime Minister of a new Government.\r\nA new (God help them) Minister in charge of negotiating the “divorce”.\r\n\r\nTheresa May effectively engineers her own BREXIT deal. She passes the poisoned chalice on.\r\n\r\nThe transition is not yet a done deal. This whole process is still covered in masses of uncertainties. I have no doubt some progress has been made but for the medias sake it’s all put forward as deadlock so far.\r\n\r\nThere simply was never enough time. I wrote months ago that it took Greenland with no way near the same complications of agreements as the UK to leave the full two-year limit. The UK was always going to be longer, it much more integrated and complicated.\r\n\r\nThis is still a huge unknown.\r\n\r\nIf the EU says no to the two-year transition, what then?\r\n\r\nCable drops like a brick because a “NO DEAL” walkaway looks to be the most obvious outcome?\r\n\r\nI know that the BOE have been relatively quiet of late, but I still find the news that the BOE are still considering a rate hike in amongst all this uncertainty plus a series of recent poor economic data more than outweighing any good data, incredible to consider, and frankly, its worthy of a comparison with a Las Vegas high stakes poker room gamble.\r\n\r\nThe latest BCC (British Chamber of Commerce) Quarterly Economic survey of businesses (what a great read), whilst it would send most people to sleep, its overall summation on the current UK economic position from its members was “uninspiring”. Now that\'s what I call a real vote of confidence…. NOT!\r\n\r\nTo raise rates with so much up in the air is a; huge / massive / almighty gamble in my opinion. Not befitting a responsible Central Bank.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>ECB:</u></strong><u> CATALONIA and MARIO DRAGHI (ECB). </u>\r\n\r\nYou couldn’t make this stuff up.\r\n\r\nThe Catalonian declaration of independence was placed on hold, whist the Catalan president Carles Puidegemont stated that it would be suspended whilst he held talks with Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rahoy, who has already basically told him to feck off…. In the nicest possible terms.\r\n\r\nCatalonia accounts for about 40% of Spain’s GDP, so for this reason alone Madrid WILL NOT want to let it go anywhere, hence all the shenanigans. In my opinion, Catalonia is the biggest risk to the EUROZONE since GREECE. It is a massive risk to the Spanish economic recovery.\r\n\r\nI write this, but this is NOT reflected in the price action of the EURO at all. It is in a very tight range and has been for some time.\r\n\r\nWhat has now been created in the Catalan/Madrid crisis is nothing more than polarization.\r\n\r\nWhat is the way forward?\r\n\r\nBusinesses are looking to leave Catalonia. Catalonia would NOT be an instant member of the EU. How could it raise capital to operate? Maybe against future tax income? I see this as a credit event, enormous high risk and this whole matter appears to have not been thought out properly.\r\n\r\nPuidgemont tried to use the referendum vote to pressure Madrid for change, but that seems a tall order to say the least given the financial implications to Spain.\r\n\r\nThis will NOT end well. There will be more unrest to come, but unless a well-drawn out plan is visible, from the outside looking in, this is a mess. It simply cannot be good for the single currency the longer it drags on. Lines in the sand have been drawn and the political and economic risks are obvious on both sides.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nMario Draghi and the ECB governing council as I have mentioned before are taking massive doses of Prozac to try and keep themselves steady as decision day looms on ECB future monetary policy.\r\n\r\nDraghi has said “Based on our regular economic and monetary analyses, we decided to keep the key ECB interest rates unchanged. We expect them to remain at their present levels for an extended period of time, and <strong><u>WELL PAST</u></strong> the horizon of our net asset purchases”\r\n\r\nThat\'s pretty clear to me. The German’s however are not happy with this statement and want change.\r\n\r\nThe current rate of ECB QE (Quantitative Easing) bond buying is at €60 Billion per month. The rumours about this moving forward is that in two weeks’ time at the next ECB Press Conference, Draghi will announce a cut in the monthly purchases to €30 Billion per month from early 2018 and run this reduced volume for about 9 months before the “tapering” will end completely.\r\n\r\nSo… there you have it; forward guidance from the ECB in a nutshell and its very clear so that we can all understand and follow. Will the markets get it?\r\n\r\nHow do I intend to trade the single currency moving forward? For that you will need to subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>\r\nUSD</u></strong><u>: FOMC MEETING MINUTES and THE US DOLLAR INDEX (DXY).</u>\r\n\r\nWTF…\r\n\r\nThe minutes reflected the statement.\r\n\r\nHowever, the USD was sold off as I think that the reality of no inflation was starting to hit board members. These minutes were before the bombshell of “THE FED HAS NO CLUE ABOUT INFLATION” and Yellen’s “SIGNS OF INFLATION &amp; TRANSITORY” were used at the last press conference. The minutes were also written before Yellen’s comments regarding the Fed models on inflation calculations are basically crap and inept… those latter descriptive words were mine!!\r\n\r\nThe market sold off after the minutes, the fear of less tightening because of no inflation in 2018 may have rung a few alarm bells… finally. This market is fickle, it over reacts to old news repeatedly and can be painful to follow at times.\r\n\r\nI have found trading this year a challenge, to put it mildly.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nFED or not, the DXY is at a crossroads and we are either going sub 91.00 or higher through 94.00 in the coming sessions.\r\n\r\nAt times over these past weeks I am trading on the basis that the FED are raising rates period, and its pure Technicals on the DXY that will determine its direction. FED policy appears secondary.\r\n\r\nI still find it hard to be long the USD. It has, like I said last week sold off since the TRUMP inauguration. I am looking for reasons to be long the USD both FUNDAMENTALLY and TECHNICALLY. A week ago, I had oversold conditions as a reason that may influence the markets, those have now gone.\r\n\r\nMoving forward, THE DONALD wants low rates and a weak USD. The US will manipulate the USD lower if it has to, it has done so before.\r\n\r\nThis is my most watched chart of late and it will be over the coming sessions as I believe that this chart will be at the basis of most FX strategies being formulated for the short and medium terms moving forward.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/DXY-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10194\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/DXY-15102017-1024x516.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"516\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2: LOOKING AHEAD TO THIS COMING WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n2.2.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ECON-DATA-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10195\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ECON-DATA-15102017-1024x775.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"775\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.2: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/TCHART-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10196\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/TCHART-15102017-1024x838.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"838\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.3: USD – TRADING CHARTS and COMMENTARIES: </u>\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>EUR/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/EURUSD-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10207\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/EURUSD-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/GBPUSD-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10208\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/GBPUSD-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/AUDUSD-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10206\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/AUDUSD-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/NZDUSD-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10209\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/NZDUSD-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCAD-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10210\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCAD-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCHF-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10211\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCHF-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDJPY-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10212\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDJPY-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.4: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:</u>\r\n\r\nThankfully more economic data than last week to choose from. The following all UK based tickle my fancy…\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP:</u></strong><u> CPI, AVERAGE EARNINGS, RETAIL SALES &amp; CARNEY</u>.\r\n\r\nIt\'s a very awesome set up this week for UK news.\r\n\r\nInflation data, Average Earnings and Carney, you could not plan a diary better except for the fact I would have Carney speak after the Retails Sales numbers on Thursday, rather than have him fronting the news events.\r\n\r\nThis data will seal the fate of UK interest rates in November in my opinion. The BOE is ready to push up interest rates and stronger inflation data will probably seal that deal. If there is to be a spanner in the works, it will either come from the increased BREXIT uncertainty that is hanging over the markets at the moment or from the Average Earning Index if it still shows lagging too far behind inflation. However, I think the accountants at the BOE have Carney by the short and curly’s and the one and done hike I think he hopes will keep the wolves from the door.\r\n\r\nI wrote earlier in the blog about my concerns and the gamble I believe that this move would be, so I am not going to repeat myself.\r\n\r\nBy the time, Carney speaks we should know if the BREXIT transition deal is a runner or not or whether the government has rejected it, in which case it will be very interesting to hear what Carney has to say on this subject and if it will affect the BOE thought process on interest rate increases.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.5: HOW TO PLAY THE MARKET THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\nAs we ended last week with the USD getting whacked, one must expect this treat to carry forward into the start of trading this coming week.\r\n\r\nMy focus will be on the USD index (DXY). The level of 90.93 is crucial in my opinion. Should this level break, we could be heading to the mid 80’s. The possible effect of a move sub 90.93 should not be underestimated.\r\n\r\nFrom a macro level the FED are probably still going to hike in December but unless inflation picks up one should question whether the December 2017 rate increase will be the only one until the same time in 2018 (I am assuming that the new FED chairperson in February will play the usual game of stringing the markets along for the year on possible hikes, and make one at the year end to maintain credibility).\r\n\r\nHere are my thoughts: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Should the DXY break lower what happens to EUR/USD?</li>\r\n 	<li>The ECB does NOT want EUR/USD exchange rates above 1.2000. A mid 80’s print in the DXY would have EUR/USD closer to 1.2500 possibly above that level.</li>\r\n 	<li>The effects of a FED rate rise on the DXY should it already be towards the mid 80’s would be minimal.</li>\r\n 	<li>Other G8 Central Banks could not rely on the FED to counter balance any rate increases that they may have planned, as in my opinion the USD would be one weak “sister!”. Therefore, I believe the moves by other Central Banks to normalization or to raise their interest rates could be held back.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThose points are really for the future but they are with me at the moment. My focus would be on cross rate pairs until the situation with the USD has settled down. Trading the USD has an increased risk element attached to it at the moment given the geopolitical risks that would have a direct effect, therefore keeping way from the USD for a while in any event is perhaps not the worst trading idea.\r\n\r\nUp until the end of last week the EUR/AUD &amp; EUR/NZD were great options and they should be again once they have finished their corrective moves lower.\r\n\r\nYou DO NOT need to trade every day. Days when maybe you do not trade can be your best days as CASH is a position.\r\n\r\nThere is a lot for the market to digest at the present time on the heels of NFP. Let the market correct first and wait for it to give a trading signal.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is my own subscriber based Forex support service that offers subscribers my suggested trade set-ups and market commentaries.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting the HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE tab.\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT 2017 PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nOCTOBER 2017 TO DATE:           +160 net pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE 2017:                    +8,047 net pips\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs on my website  <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nAlternatively, if you prefer to watch a video recording about the PREMIUM SERVICE, click the link below. You will be directed to a 40-minute webinar presentation entitled “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE”.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS ONLY:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4.1: TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\nI added 160 pips last week, which frankly I thought there was little chance of doing, so I am happy.\r\n\r\nThe markets I think were surprised with the US inflation data last Friday. I expected HOT numbers and we got small misses across the board. The minimum anticipation was for at least in line prints. The moves that followed slight misses were extreme in a couple of cases which is now the normal response. Nevertheless, it was a miss, how the markets play with this data next week will be crucial. I suspect that unless something of a miracle happens we will sooner rather than later be testing the DXY support of 90.83.\r\n\r\nDuring last week, I spoke with a couple of you and brought up my current trading volumes and mentioned RISK MANAGEMENT, I promised that I would cover this point in this section of the blog this weekend.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.1.1: RISK MANAGEMENT AND POSITION SIZING:\r\n\r\nAt the moment, I have a larger than normal number of LIVE and LIMIT ORDERS placed across my brokers. Over the past few days talking with some subscribers, it quickly became apparent that some of you guys were running with way too much RISK and that whilst everyone’s RISK TOLERANCE is different, and I respect that, there was a need for me to update what already exists in “THE LIBRARY” with a 2017 version, although in my opinion, the rules are very similar, in fact still the same.\r\n\r\nTrading in the FX market has elephant traps set all over place, no matter which way we move to improve our trading returns there are barriers. The only constant that we can control is RISK.\r\n\r\nWhether trades are LIVE or LIMIT ORDERS, in my opinion we should assume that they are live trades and treat our RISK that way.\r\n\r\nThis is how I approach matters: -\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>I work on the basis that every trade has a STOP LOSS liability of 200 pips. (This average level allows for my moving of STOP levels from time to time and it also takes into consideration the mix of FT, RT, FUN &amp; POS trades).You can of course set up a spread sheet to give you exact numbers. I know from experience that I am not touching near to my 3% RISK LIMIT based upon the sizes of the broker accounts I have and my day to day use for the different categories of trades. However, the mix of trade styles is skewed at the moment and because of this my position sizing has been reduced to compensate.(This process does NOT however include one set of trading pairs which I have exempted from the main accounts into their own broker account. I am dealing with them on a very long time frame, already over two years, the AUD/NZD trades)</li>\r\n 	<li>This combined number of pips should then be multiplied up by trade size incorporating the mixture of MICRO, MINI and STANDARD lots to give you the actual total pip exposure.</li>\r\n 	<li>You can be clever and it requires a little work but if you are skilled enough you can have an actual CONTINGENT LIABILITY based on LIVE trades, and a future version based on LIMIT ORDERS as well as a combined version. This gives you complete 100% management.</li>\r\n 	<li>This is the calculated into $$$ value and this becomes what I call your CONTINGENT LIABILITY.</li>\r\n 	<li>It is your CONTINGENT LIABILITY expressed as a percentage to your broker account balance that gives you your RISK %.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nEXAMPLE:\r\n\r\nBROKER ACCOUNT BALANCE = USD$100,000.00\r\n\r\n15 LIVE TRADES\r\n10 LIMIT ORDER TRADES\r\n25 TOTAL TRADES\r\n25 x 200 pips\r\nRISK = 25 x 200 = 5,000 pips\r\n\r\nSINGLE MINI LOT TRADER = CONTINGENT LIABILITY of $5,000.00\r\n(This example assumes ALL trades are 1 x mini lot. You would need to factor in for micro and standard lot volumes if applicable)\r\n\r\nAs you know my RISK TOLERANCE = 3%, in this example the account has a RISK of 5%.\r\n\r\nEveryone has a different RISK TOLERANCE. If you are happy with 5%, 7%, 8% so be it is your money. However, if you are too exposed what can you do?\r\n\r\nWHAT TO DO TO FIX?\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>Add more funds to your broker account.</li>\r\n 	<li>Reduce position sizes so that exposure based upon a mix of MICRO, MINI and STANDARD lot trades are not greater than 3% of your broker account balance. (Or whatever your RISK TOLERANCE % is)</li>\r\n 	<li>Close positions to bring your RISK inside your tolerance level.</li>\r\n 	<li>Possibly if you understand how to do it, HEDGE your position as it stops RISK increasing but managing your way out of a hedged position can be difficult. It can take a long time as the best conditions should be directional with great momentum.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nDO I EVER BREAK MY 3% CEILING?\r\n\r\nNot in my main USD major or my JPY broker accounts because that is where my position sizes are usually larger.\r\n\r\nI mentioned this earlier, I have my one exception and it’s NOT a major break from my principles but I acknowledge it is different approach, but it is managed.\r\n\r\nAs many of you are aware from my existing trades and limit orders my NZD cross rate exposure, mainly through the AUD/NZD is well beyond the 3% when it is all said and done as I have added a lot more RISK to my NZD cross positions through the EUR/NZD, GBP/NZD and NZD/CAD.\r\n\r\nI operate all my NZD cross rate exposure through a separate broker account. My CONTINGENT LIABILITY is just over 5.5%. I have set my limit at 7%\r\n\r\nI control RISK through a combination of hedging and position sizing adjustments. My NZD is a long, long term CORE TRADE primarily on the AUD/NZD cross.\r\n\r\nThis has been a two-year trade so far and I see it operating for another two-years minimum. I wanted greater flexibility given my FUNDAMENTAL views and the period within I am proposing to work this trade.\r\n\r\nSUMMARY:\r\n\r\nI am very lucky, I can operate two large accounts (from my own values) and three smaller ones to manage trades through. The gap between my trading positions and the account balance may seem unrealistic at times especially for new traders to understand, however this is what RISK MANAGEMENT is all about.\r\n\r\nThere is never a threat about a margin call and three or four bad trades will not KILL the account, it hurts me, but that\'s trading.\r\n\r\nI am here for the long haul. Longevity in trading is about patience and being sidelined quite a bit if you are NOT happy with the conditions.\r\n\r\nI am not sure whether this helps, I hope it does not confuse.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.2: SENTIMENT CHART,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:</u>\r\n\r\nThis bizarre market continues to baffle me.\r\n\r\nLast week, I thought that a HAWKISH FED would produce USD strength across the board – we saw weakness.\r\n\r\nSpanish police dragging people away from polling booths followed by a possible declaration of independence I thought would be bad news from whatever perspective viewed for the EURO – it did nothing, hardly moved.\r\n\r\nAs a FUNDAMENTAL trader, I find myself trading semi FUNDAMENTAL and adjusting my style, approach and thoughts constantly.\r\n\r\nI am still comfortable being long AUD/NZD. I still believe the NZD currency is over-valued and fair value is closer to 0.6500 (NZD/USD). This makes me comfortable being long the EUR/NZD and GBP/NZD cross rates.\r\n\r\nIn addition, should the JPY correct lower, which is very possible, it should bring all JPY pairs lower with it eventually. This should be a RISK event therefore, the EUR/AUD, EUR/NZD, GBP/AUD and GBP/NZD should move higher.\r\n\r\nThe EURO is now confusing me, following Draghi’s very clear comments earlier this month. Absolutely clear forward guidance, better than Yellen and Carney added together.\r\n\r\nThe AUD, despite comments from the RBA, I think could be on a corrective move higher before heading lower again. Whilst this helps my AUD/NZD trade it does nothing for my EUR/AUD or GBP/AUD trades, although the latter is hedged at a 200-pip loss. Also, the JPY has a place to play here as already mentioned.\r\n\r\nDo not get me started on the fecking pig of a currency the cable. I just do not know where Theresa May and the then the BOE are going to go with this one especially if the EU grant a two-year extension to the Article 50 deadline date under the guise of transitional time. What happens if the EU says no extension?  Whooooooooooosh…. It could be the outcome, who knows?\r\n\r\nThe CAD, I was clear on its move lower through 1.2000 (USD/CAD) but it is struggling with 1.2460. In addition, you weigh in the comments from Poloz and the well-known phrase I used to be decisive and now I am not quite sure and that sums up the markets view of the loonie.\r\n\r\nI think if NAFTA remains with Canada and the U.S. with a cross border trading alliance this will do the trick and put some lead in the pencil of the CAD$ and it should strengthen as a result. The economic data that couldn’t miss for months back to back has tailed off at late. So, with rate hikes from the BOC being data dependent this needs to improve.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/SENTIMENT-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10197\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/SENTIMENT-15102017-771x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"771\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>4.3: EXISTING CORE TRADES (PLANS &amp; STRATEGIES):</u>\r\n\r\nBasically, I am STILL bearish the CAD and NZD currencies. As eluded to earlier I am looking short-term at adding the AUD to my bearish positioning.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE CAD:</u></strong>\r\nCurrently, I am live the following: -\r\n\r\n2 x live short USD/CAD trades\r\n\r\nPlus: - I have BUY STOP limit orders in position for the CAD/CHF and CAD/JPY and 2 x short LIMIT ORDERS with USD/CAD.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: Is to wait as per my comments above in section 4.2\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE NZD</u></strong>:\r\n\r\nCurrently I have 3 x live long AUD/NZD trades and 2 x EUR/NZD long trades plus a short NZD/JPY trade.\r\n\r\nI still hold a hedged long GBP/NZD trade to cover increased market uncertainties in the short term. My maximum loss on the trade is limited to 300 pips out of a Monthly ATR of c.1,300 pips. I am not in any rush to work my way out of this position.\r\n\r\nPlus: - I have 2 x AUD/NZD and a further 3 x GBP/NZD limit order trades in position.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: I am waiting for the market to reset before adding additional trades.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.4: CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\nCURRENT LIVE TRADES:\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LIVE-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10199\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LIVE-15102017-825x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"825\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\nCURRENT LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LIMIT-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10198\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LIMIT-15102017-900x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"900\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.5: FX BROKER NEWS with their MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\nAbsolutely nothing new to add here this week.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FINISHING LINE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5.1: WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you have read in this blog and would like the chance to win a FREE SUBSCRIPTION valued at CAD$150.00, all you should do is subscribe to my FREE NEWSLETTER (this blog), by adding your email address on my welcome page just below my cube logo at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\n<u>5.2: PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTIONS:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you’ve read in this blog and should you want to go a stage further and subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE, this can be done on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the Tab SUBSCRIBE HERE.\r\n\r\nSubscribing to the PREMIUM SERVICE is not just about receiving a larger “DRIVE THRU” blog packed with more trading supporting information, my thoughts and ideas. There is much more to a subscription than those things. Check it all out under the tab HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nAlternatively, if you prefer to watch a video recording about the PREMIUM SERVICE, click the link below. You will be directed to a 40-minute webinar presentation entitled “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE”.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n5.3: CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\n\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #151 PREMIUM SERVICE\r\n15th October 2017\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','THE EU TROJAN HORSE','','inherit','closed','closed','','10213-revision-v1','','','2017-10-14 07:51:01','2017-10-14 12:51:01','',10213,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/10213-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(10215,1,'2017-10-14 07:43:27','2017-10-14 12:43:27','&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nLast week was a light week for economic data but wow the news events were crazy. From a trading viewpoint, I had to split the week into two halves.\r\n\r\nMonday thru Wednesday was boring, boring, boring. Where has the volatility gone? I tweeted out several times phrases such as “chop fest”, “lots of flashing lights”. We can put lipstick on this market but the bottom line is “it is a PIG” the volatility that used to there has to a large extent dried up. If I wanted to look at flashing lights all day, I’ll put up the Christmas Tree early, this is a bit boring.\r\n\r\nThen on Thursday and Friday, Holy Mother of God, it was wild. BREXIT spiced it up, Draghi followed and the US inflation data was a small miss but OMG the market reaction was huge, probably due to the implications it could have on FED rate hikes in 2018.\r\n\r\nI added net pips but I also took losses on Friday. Annoying as it was, my CONTINGENT LIABILITY of all trades and limit orders added to together, was not at my limits but it was higher than usual due to quantity of trades I have at the moment.\r\n\r\nLooking towards the weekend with the geopolitical concerns still out there and the fact that these moves could motor into this week’s early trading, I decided to cut them out. I banked losses of just over 200 pips. The net pip increase for the week was therefore only 160 pips.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong></strong><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:\r\n\r\n</strong><u>2.1: LOOKING BACK AT LAST WEEK’S NEWS.</u></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nOnly two pieces of news last week resonated with me for this section and regular readers will not be surprised by my choices.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>\r\nGBP</u></strong><u>: BREXIT NEGOTIATIONS REACH DEADLOCK then AN OLIVE BRANCH?</u>\r\n\r\nWell, “Glaze my nipples and call me Rita”, in the name of sanity what the bloody hell did the markets expect… a result?\r\n\r\nFor crying out loud, the clues have been stronger and stronger. The UK has been mentioning preparation for a “No deal” a lot recently.\r\n\r\nLast Thursday, after round 4 or 5 of the DIVORCE negotiations, the EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier and the UK equivalent MP and Tory Government Cabinet member David Davis announced the negotiations were deadlocked.\r\n\r\nQuelle bloody surprise!\r\n\r\nThe EU presented a running order of protocol to be ticked off in a strict A to B to C to D order, all nice and easy to follow. The Brits like the idea of D to B to A and then C. The obvious result is deadlock. So with the anticipation of deadlock, the decision to release more and more “sound bytes” about a “No deal” was probably a tactic to try to change the viewpoint of the EU.\r\n\r\nCable sold off, then later the same day out it comes from Barnier, what appears like a concession. Cable spikes back to remove all prior losses.\r\n\r\nMichel Barnier offers a two year “transition extension”. An olive branch, my arse it was not, it was pure genius.  This offer, ties the UK to meeting all EU financial obligations for an additional two years beyond the Article 50 deadline. Basically, in a nutshell… sure we’ll extend everything, but you have to meet all of our rules and regulations in the transition process.\r\n\r\nStep back for a moment....\r\n\r\nThe UK head negotiator (David Davis) is a politician who cannot appear weak as he would be slaughtered in both the Cabinet (behind closed doors) and (publicly ridiculed) in the UK House of Commons. The pressure not to give way on anything is massive, personally and politically as this will be in record books of his public service career.  All the pressure is on his head to achieve the best deal possible, which for the UK, is basically appearing to remain inside the EU but with border controls.\r\n\r\nThe EU chief negotiator is Michel Barnier. He is a French Republican Politician. He is representing 27 countries. His job is to follow the negotiation road map given to him by the “jotter blotters” in Brussels. This will at conclusion be presented to the 27 leaders of the EU for them to ratify.\r\n\r\nBarnier, although I am sure wants to do a great job, couldn’t give a rat’s ass about any fallout because all the pressure is on the UK. He can hold his hands aloft and claim to eternity that he has his road map that must be followed in order. Whether the UK are at fault or not, the blame for any negotiating breakdown can be switched very easily and all the pressure put back across the English Channel. Put yourself in Barnier’s position; it’s a high-profile role and it\'s a win, win no lose job. He just has to follow the guidelines. The transition deal if accepted was a gem in my opinion.\r\n\r\nOffering the two-year transition that Prime Minister May requested is a master stroke from Barnier. He gets the guarantee of badly needed money from the UK into the coffers of the EU in Brussels. It is the equivalent of a modern day “TROJAN HORSE”. However, this is NOT a done deal it needs to be ratified by at least Germany for it to be a runner.\r\n\r\nI still giggle at the HARD BREXIT versus SOFT BREXIT calls made by the media.\r\n\r\nA two-year transition does NOT automatically = SOFT BREXIT\r\n\r\nSOFT BREXIT = CONTAGION…. not going to happen\r\nSOFT BREXIT = CHERRY PICKING… not going to happen\r\n\r\nIf the transition deal is agreed it is nothing more than “Can kicking the issue down the road”.\r\n\r\nAt the back of my cynical mind; Theresa May requests the transition extension, this means that the Article 50 deadline date would now shift to March 2021, what could happen in the interim?\r\n\r\nNew parliamentary elections would have taken place.\r\nMaybe a new referendum on BREXIT?\r\nMaybe another Scottish Independence vote?\r\nA new Prime Minister of a new Government.\r\nA new (God help them) Minister in charge of negotiating the “divorce”.\r\n\r\nTheresa May effectively engineers her own BREXIT deal. She passes the poisoned chalice on.\r\n\r\nThe transition is not yet a done deal. This whole process is still covered in masses of uncertainties. I have no doubt some progress has been made but for the medias sake it’s all put forward as deadlock so far.\r\n\r\nThere simply was never enough time. I wrote months ago that it took Greenland with no way near the same complications of agreements as the UK to leave the full two-year limit. The UK was always going to be longer, it much more integrated and complicated.\r\n\r\nThis is still a huge unknown.\r\n\r\nIf the EU says no to the two-year transition, what then?\r\n\r\nCable drops like a brick because a “NO DEAL” walkaway looks to be the most obvious outcome?\r\n\r\nI know that the BOE have been relatively quiet of late, but I still find the news that the BOE are still considering a rate hike in amongst all this uncertainty plus a series of recent poor economic data more than outweighing any good data, incredible to consider, and frankly, its worthy of a comparison with a Las Vegas high stakes poker room gamble.\r\n\r\nThe latest BCC (British Chamber of Commerce) Quarterly Economic survey of businesses (what a great read), whilst it would send most people to sleep, its overall summation on the current UK economic position from its members was “uninspiring”. Now that\'s what I call a real vote of confidence…. NOT!\r\n\r\nTo raise rates with so much up in the air is a; huge / massive / almighty gamble in my opinion. Not befitting a responsible Central Bank.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>ECB:</u></strong><u> CATALONIA and MARIO DRAGHI (ECB). </u>\r\n\r\nYou couldn’t make this stuff up.\r\n\r\nThe Catalonian declaration of independence was placed on hold, whist the Catalan president Carles Puidegemont stated that it would be suspended whilst he held talks with Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rahoy, who has already basically told him to feck off…. In the nicest possible terms.\r\n\r\nCatalonia accounts for about 40% of Spain’s GDP, so for this reason alone Madrid WILL NOT want to let it go anywhere, hence all the shenanigans. In my opinion, Catalonia is the biggest risk to the EUROZONE since GREECE. It is a massive risk to the Spanish economic recovery.\r\n\r\nI write this, but this is NOT reflected in the price action of the EURO at all. It is in a very tight range and has been for some time.\r\n\r\nWhat has now been created in the Catalan/Madrid crisis is nothing more than polarization.\r\n\r\nWhat is the way forward?\r\n\r\nBusinesses are looking to leave Catalonia. Catalonia would NOT be an instant member of the EU. How could it raise capital to operate? Maybe against future tax income? I see this as a credit event, enormous high risk and this whole matter appears to have not been thought out properly.\r\n\r\nPuidgemont tried to use the referendum vote to pressure Madrid for change, but that seems a tall order to say the least given the financial implications to Spain.\r\n\r\nThis will NOT end well. There will be more unrest to come, but unless a well-drawn out plan is visible, from the outside looking in, this is a mess. It simply cannot be good for the single currency the longer it drags on. Lines in the sand have been drawn and the political and economic risks are obvious on both sides.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nMario Draghi and the ECB governing council as I have mentioned before are taking massive doses of Prozac to try and keep themselves steady as decision day looms on ECB future monetary policy.\r\n\r\nDraghi has said “Based on our regular economic and monetary analyses, we decided to keep the key ECB interest rates unchanged. We expect them to remain at their present levels for an extended period of time, and <strong><u>WELL PAST</u></strong> the horizon of our net asset purchases”\r\n\r\nThat\'s pretty clear to me. The German’s however are not happy with this statement and want change.\r\n\r\nThe current rate of ECB QE (Quantitative Easing) bond buying is at €60 Billion per month. The rumours about this moving forward is that in two weeks’ time at the next ECB Press Conference, Draghi will announce a cut in the monthly purchases to €30 Billion per month from early 2018 and run this reduced volume for about 9 months before the “tapering” will end completely.\r\n\r\nSo… there you have it; forward guidance from the ECB in a nutshell and its very clear so that we can all understand and follow. Will the markets get it?\r\n\r\nHow do I intend to trade the single currency moving forward? For that you will need to subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>\r\nUSD</u></strong><u>: FOMC MEETING MINUTES and THE US DOLLAR INDEX (DXY).</u>\r\n\r\nWTF…\r\n\r\nThe minutes reflected the statement.\r\n\r\nHowever, the USD was sold off as I think that the reality of no inflation was starting to hit board members. These minutes were before the bombshell of “THE FED HAS NO CLUE ABOUT INFLATION” and Yellen’s “SIGNS OF INFLATION &amp; TRANSITORY” were used at the last press conference. The minutes were also written before Yellen’s comments regarding the Fed models on inflation calculations are basically crap and inept… those latter descriptive words were mine!!\r\n\r\nThe market sold off after the minutes, the fear of less tightening because of no inflation in 2018 may have rung a few alarm bells… finally. This market is fickle, it over reacts to old news repeatedly and can be painful to follow at times.\r\n\r\nI have found trading this year a challenge, to put it mildly.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nFED or not, the DXY is at a crossroads and we are either going sub 91.00 or higher through 94.00 in the coming sessions.\r\n\r\nAt times over these past weeks I am trading on the basis that the FED are raising rates period, and its pure Technicals on the DXY that will determine its direction. FED policy appears secondary.\r\n\r\nI still find it hard to be long the USD. It has, like I said last week sold off since the TRUMP inauguration. I am looking for reasons to be long the USD both FUNDAMENTALLY and TECHNICALLY. A week ago, I had oversold conditions as a reason that may influence the markets, those have now gone.\r\n\r\nMoving forward, THE DONALD wants low rates and a weak USD. The US will manipulate the USD lower if it has to, it has done so before.\r\n\r\nThis is my most watched chart of late and it will be over the coming sessions as I believe that this chart will be at the basis of most FX strategies being formulated for the short and medium terms moving forward.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/DXY-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10194\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/DXY-15102017-1024x516.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"516\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2: LOOKING AHEAD TO THIS COMING WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n2.2.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ECON-DATA-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10195\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ECON-DATA-15102017-1024x775.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"775\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.2: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/TCHART-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10196\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/TCHART-15102017-1024x838.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"838\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.3: USD – TRADING CHARTS and COMMENTARIES: </u>\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>EUR/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/EURUSD-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10207\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/EURUSD-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/GBPUSD-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10208\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/GBPUSD-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/AUDUSD-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10206\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/AUDUSD-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/NZDUSD-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10209\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/NZDUSD-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCAD-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10210\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCAD-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCHF-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10211\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCHF-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDJPY-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10212\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDJPY-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.4: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:</u>\r\n\r\nThankfully more economic data than last week to choose from. The following all UK based tickle my fancy…\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP:</u></strong><u> CPI, AVERAGE EARNINGS, RETAIL SALES &amp; CARNEY</u>.\r\n\r\nIt\'s a very awesome set up this week for UK news.\r\n\r\nInflation data, Average Earnings and Carney, you could not plan a diary better except for the fact I would have Carney speak after the Retails Sales numbers on Thursday, rather than have him fronting the news events.\r\n\r\nThis data will seal the fate of UK interest rates in November in my opinion. The BOE is ready to push up interest rates and stronger inflation data will probably seal that deal. If there is to be a spanner in the works, it will either come from the increased BREXIT uncertainty that is hanging over the markets at the moment or from the Average Earning Index if it still shows lagging too far behind inflation. However, I think the accountants at the BOE have Carney by the short and curly’s and the one and done hike I think he hopes will keep the wolves from the door.\r\n\r\nI wrote earlier in the blog about my concerns and the gamble I believe that this move would be, so I am not going to repeat myself.\r\n\r\nBy the time, Carney speaks we should know if the BREXIT transition deal is a runner or not or whether the government has rejected it, in which case it will be very interesting to hear what Carney has to say on this subject and if it will affect the BOE thought process on interest rate increases.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.5: HOW TO PLAY THE MARKET THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\nAs we ended last week with the USD getting whacked, one must expect this treat to carry forward into the start of trading this coming week.\r\n\r\nMy focus will be on the USD index (DXY). The level of 90.93 is crucial in my opinion. Should this level break, we could be heading to the mid 80’s. The possible effect of a move sub 90.93 should not be underestimated.\r\n\r\nFrom a macro level the FED are probably still going to hike in December but unless inflation picks up one should question whether the December 2017 rate increase will be the only one until the same time in 2018 (I am assuming that the new FED chairperson in February will play the usual game of stringing the markets along for the year on possible hikes, and make one at the year end to maintain credibility).\r\n\r\nHere are my thoughts: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Should the DXY break lower what happens to EUR/USD?</li>\r\n 	<li>The ECB does NOT want EUR/USD exchange rates above 1.2000. A mid 80’s print in the DXY would have EUR/USD closer to 1.2500 possibly above that level.</li>\r\n 	<li>The effects of a FED rate rise on the DXY should it already be towards the mid 80’s would be minimal.</li>\r\n 	<li>Other G8 Central Banks could not rely on the FED to counter balance any rate increases that they may have planned, as in my opinion the USD would be one weak “sister!”. Therefore, I believe the moves by other Central Banks to normalization or to raise their interest rates could be held back.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThose points are really for the future but they are with me at the moment. My focus would be on cross rate pairs until the situation with the USD has settled down. Trading the USD has an increased risk element attached to it at the moment given the geopolitical risks that would have a direct effect, therefore keeping way from the USD for a while in any event is perhaps not the worst trading idea.\r\n\r\nUp until the end of last week the EUR/AUD &amp; EUR/NZD were great options and they should be again once they have finished their corrective moves lower.\r\n\r\nYou DO NOT need to trade every day. Days when maybe you do not trade can be your best days as CASH is a position.\r\n\r\nThere is a lot for the market to digest at the present time on the heels of NFP. Let the market correct first and wait for it to give a trading signal.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is my own subscriber based Forex support service that offers subscribers my suggested trade set-ups and market commentaries.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting the HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE tab.\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT 2017 PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nOCTOBER 2017 TO DATE:           +160 net pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE 2017:                    +8,047 net pips\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs on my website  <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nAlternatively, if you prefer to watch a video recording about the PREMIUM SERVICE, click the link below. You will be directed to a 40-minute webinar presentation entitled “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE”.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS ONLY:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4.1: TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\nI added 160 pips last week, which frankly I thought there was little chance of doing, so I am happy.\r\n\r\nThe markets I think were surprised with the US inflation data last Friday. I expected HOT numbers and we got small misses across the board. The minimum anticipation was for at least in line prints. The moves that followed slight misses were extreme in a couple of cases which is now the normal response. Nevertheless, it was a miss, how the markets play with this data next week will be crucial. I suspect that unless something of a miracle happens we will sooner rather than later be testing the DXY support of 90.83.\r\n\r\nDuring last week, I spoke with a couple of you and brought up my current trading volumes and mentioned RISK MANAGEMENT, I promised that I would cover this point in this section of the blog this weekend.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.1.1: RISK MANAGEMENT AND POSITION SIZING:\r\nAt the moment, I have a larger than normal number of LIVE and LIMIT ORDERS placed across my brokers. Over the past few days talking with some subscribers, it quickly became apparent that some of you guys were running with way too much RISK and that whilst everyone’s RISK TOLERANCE is different, and I respect that, there was a need for me to update what already exists in “THE LIBRARY” with a 2017 version, although in my opinion, the rules are very similar, in fact still the same.\r\n\r\nTrading in the FX market has elephant traps set all over place, no matter which way we move to improve our trading returns there are barriers. The only constant that we can control is RISK.\r\n\r\nWhether trades are LIVE or LIMIT ORDERS, in my opinion we should assume that they are live trades and treat our RISK that way.\r\n\r\nThis is how I approach matters: -\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>I work on the basis that every trade has a STOP LOSS liability of 200 pips. (This average level allows for my moving of STOP levels from time to time and it also takes into consideration the mix of FT, RT, FUN &amp; POS trades).You can of course set up a spread sheet to give you exact numbers. I know from experience that I am not touching near to my 3% RISK LIMIT based upon the sizes of the broker accounts I have and my day to day use for the different categories of trades. However, the mix of trade styles is skewed at the moment and because of this my position sizing has been reduced to compensate.\r\n\r\n(This process does NOT however include one set of trading pairs which I have exempted from the main accounts into their own broker account. I am dealing with them on a very long time frame, already over two years, the AUD/NZD trades)</li>\r\n 	<li>This combined number of pips should then be multiplied up by trade size incorporating the mixture of MICRO, MINI and STANDARD lots to give you the actual total pip exposure.</li>\r\n 	<li>You can be clever and it requires a little work but if you are skilled enough you can have an actual CONTINGENT LIABILITY based on LIVE trades, and a future version based on LIMIT ORDERS as well as a combined version. This gives you complete 100% management.</li>\r\n 	<li>This is the calculated into $$$ value and this becomes what I call your CONTINGENT LIABILITY.</li>\r\n 	<li>It is your CONTINGENT LIABILITY expressed as a percentage to your broker account balance that gives you your RISK %.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nEXAMPLE:\r\n\r\nBROKER ACCOUNT BALANCE = USD$100,000.00\r\n\r\n15 LIVE TRADES\r\n10 LIMIT ORDER TRADES\r\n25 TOTAL TRADES\r\n25 x 200 pips\r\nRISK = 25 x 200 = 5,000 pips\r\n\r\nSINGLE MINI LOT TRADER = CONTINGENT LIABILITY of $5,000.00\r\n(This example assumes ALL trades are 1 x mini lot. You would need to factor in for micro and standard lot volumes if applicable)\r\n\r\nAs you know my RISK TOLERANCE = 3%, in this example the account has a RISK of 5%.\r\n\r\nEveryone has a different RISK TOLERANCE. If you are happy with 5%, 7%, 8% so be it is your money. However, if you are too exposed what can you do?\r\n\r\nWHAT TO DO TO FIX?\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>Add more funds to your broker account.</li>\r\n 	<li>Reduce position sizes so that exposure based upon a mix of MICRO, MINI and STANDARD lot trades are not greater than 3% of your broker account balance. (Or whatever your RISK TOLERANCE % is)</li>\r\n 	<li>Close positions to bring your RISK inside your tolerance level.</li>\r\n 	<li>Possibly if you understand how to do it, HEDGE your position as it stops RISK increasing but managing your way out of a hedged position can be difficult. It can take a long time as the best conditions should be directional with great momentum.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nDO I EVER BREAK MY 3% CEILING?\r\n\r\nNot in my main USD major or my JPY broker accounts because that is where my position sizes are usually larger.\r\n\r\nI mentioned this earlier, I have my one exception and it’s NOT a major break from my principles but I acknowledge it is different approach, but it is managed.\r\n\r\nAs many of you are aware from my existing trades and limit orders my NZD cross rate exposure, mainly through the AUD/NZD is well beyond the 3% when it is all said and done as I have added a lot more RISK to my NZD cross positions through the EUR/NZD, GBP/NZD and NZD/CAD.\r\n\r\nI operate all my NZD cross rate exposure through a separate broker account. My CONTINGENT LIABILITY is just over 5.5%. I have set my limit at 7%\r\n\r\nI control RISK through a combination of hedging and position sizing adjustments. My NZD is a long, long term CORE TRADE primarily on the AUD/NZD cross.\r\n\r\nThis has been a two-year trade so far and I see it operating for another two-years minimum. I wanted greater flexibility given my FUNDAMENTAL views and the period within I am proposing to work this trade.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nSUMMARY:\r\n\r\nI am very lucky, I can operate two large accounts (from my own values) and three smaller ones to manage trades through. The gap between my trading positions and the account balance may seem unrealistic at times especially for new traders to understand, however this is what RISK MANAGEMENT is all about.\r\n\r\nThere is never a threat about a margin call and three or four bad trades will not KILL the account, it hurts me, but that\'s trading.\r\n\r\nI am here for the long haul. Longevity in trading is about patience and being sidelined quite a bit if you are NOT happy with the conditions.\r\n\r\nI am not sure whether this helps, I hope it does not confuse.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.2: SENTIMENT CHART,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThis bizarre market continues to baffle me.\r\n\r\nLast week, I thought that a HAWKISH FED would produce USD strength across the board – we saw weakness.\r\n\r\nSpanish police dragging people away from polling booths followed by a possible declaration of independence I thought would be bad news from whatever perspective viewed for the EURO – it did nothing, hardly moved.\r\n\r\nAs a FUNDAMENTAL trader, I find myself trading semi FUNDAMENTAL and adjusting my style, approach and thoughts constantly.\r\n\r\nI am still comfortable being long AUD/NZD. I still believe the NZD currency is over-valued and fair value is closer to 0.6500 (NZD/USD). This makes me comfortable being long the EUR/NZD and GBP/NZD cross rates.\r\n\r\nIn addition, should the JPY correct lower, which is very possible, it should bring all JPY pairs lower with it eventually. This should be a RISK event therefore, the EUR/AUD, EUR/NZD, GBP/AUD and GBP/NZD should move higher.\r\n\r\nThe EURO is now confusing me, following Draghi’s very clear comments earlier this month. Absolutely clear forward guidance, better than Yellen and Carney added together.\r\n\r\nThe AUD, despite comments from the RBA, I think could be on a corrective move higher before heading lower again. Whilst this helps my AUD/NZD trade it does nothing for my EUR/AUD or GBP/AUD trades, although the latter is hedged at a 200-pip loss. Also, the JPY has a place to play here as already mentioned.\r\n\r\nDo not get me started on the fecking pig of a currency the cable. I just do not know where Theresa May and the then the BOE are going to go with this one especially if the EU grant a two-year extension to the Article 50 deadline date under the guise of transitional time. What happens if the EU says no extension?  Whooooooooooosh…. It could be the outcome, who knows?\r\n\r\nThe CAD, I was clear on its move lower through 1.2000 (USD/CAD) but it is struggling with 1.2460. In addition, you weigh in the comments from Poloz and the well-known phrase I used to be decisive and now I am not quite sure and that sums up the markets view of the loonie.\r\n\r\nI think if NAFTA remains with Canada and the U.S. with a cross border trading alliance this will do the trick and put some lead in the pencil of the CAD$ and it should strengthen as a result. The economic data that couldn’t miss for months back to back has tailed off at late. So, with rate hikes from the BOC being data dependent this needs to improve.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/SENTIMENT-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10197\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/SENTIMENT-15102017-771x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"771\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n</u><u>4.3: EXISTING CORE TRADES (PLANS &amp; STRATEGIES):</u>\r\n\r\nBasically, I am STILL bearish the CAD and NZD currencies. As eluded to earlier I am looking short-term at adding the AUD to my bearish positioning.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE CAD:</u></strong>\r\nCurrently, I am live the following: -\r\n\r\n2 x live short USD/CAD trades\r\n\r\nPlus: - I have BUY STOP limit orders in position for the CAD/CHF and CAD/JPY and 2 x short LIMIT ORDERS with USD/CAD.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: Is to wait as per my comments above in section 4.2\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>THE NZD</u></strong>:\r\n\r\nCurrently I have 3 x live long AUD/NZD trades and 2 x EUR/NZD long trades plus a short NZD/JPY trade.\r\n\r\nI still hold a hedged long GBP/NZD trade to cover increased market uncertainties in the short term. My maximum loss on the trade is limited to 300 pips out of a Monthly ATR of c.1,300 pips. I am not in any rush to work my way out of this position.\r\n\r\nPlus: - I have 2 x AUD/NZD and a further 3 x GBP/NZD limit order trades in position.\r\n\r\nMY PLAN: I am waiting for the market to reset before adding additional trades.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.4: CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\nCURRENT LIVE TRADES:\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LIVE-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10199\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LIVE-15102017-825x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"825\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\nCURRENT LIMIT ORDER TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LIMIT-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10198\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/LIMIT-15102017-900x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"900\" height=\"1024\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>4.5: FX BROKER NEWS with their MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\nAbsolutely nothing new to add here this week.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FINISHING LINE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>5.1: WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you have read in this blog and would like the chance to win a FREE SUBSCRIPTION valued at CAD$150.00, all you should do is subscribe to my FREE NEWSLETTER (this blog), by adding your email address on my welcome page just below my cube logo at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\n<u>5.2: PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTIONS:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you’ve read in this blog and should you want to go a stage further and subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE, this can be done on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the Tab SUBSCRIBE HERE.\r\n\r\nSubscribing to the PREMIUM SERVICE is not just about receiving a larger “DRIVE THRU” blog packed with more trading supporting information, my thoughts and ideas. There is much more to a subscription than those things. Check it all out under the tab HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nAlternatively, if you prefer to watch a video recording about the PREMIUM SERVICE, click the link below. You will be directed to a 40-minute webinar presentation entitled “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE”.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n5.3: CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\n\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nBLOG VERSION: #151 PREMIUM SERVICE\r\n15th October 2017\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','THE EU TROJAN HORSE','','inherit','closed','closed','','10213-revision-v1','','','2017-10-14 07:43:27','2017-10-14 12:43:27','',10213,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/10213-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(10954,1,'2018-02-09 16:57:02','2018-02-09 21:57:02','','TCHART 09022018','','inherit','open','closed','','tchart-09022018','','','2018-02-10 06:47:17','2018-02-10 11:47:17','',10962,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/TCHART-09022018.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(10955,1,'2018-02-09 17:00:54','2018-02-09 22:00:54','','AUDUSD W 10022018','','inherit','open','closed','','audusd-w-10022018','','','2018-02-10 06:42:52','2018-02-10 11:42:52','',10962,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/AUDUSD-W-10022018.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(10956,1,'2018-02-09 17:00:58','2018-02-09 22:00:58','','EURUSD W 10022018','','inherit','open','closed','','eurusd-w-10022018','','','2018-02-10 06:43:16','2018-02-10 11:43:16','',10962,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/EURUSD-W-10022018.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(10957,1,'2018-02-09 17:01:02','2018-02-09 22:01:02','','GBPUSD W 10022018','','inherit','open','closed','','gbpusd-w-10022018','','','2018-02-10 06:43:03','2018-02-10 11:43:03','',10962,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/GBPUSD-W-10022018.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(10958,1,'2018-02-09 17:01:05','2018-02-09 22:01:05','','NZDUSD W 10022018','','inherit','open','closed','','nzdusd-w-10022018','','','2018-02-10 06:42:43','2018-02-10 11:42:43','',10962,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/NZDUSD-W-10022018.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(10959,1,'2018-02-09 17:01:09','2018-02-09 22:01:09','','USDCAD W 10022018','','inherit','open','closed','','usdcad-w-10022018','','','2018-02-10 06:42:33','2018-02-10 11:42:33','',10962,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/USDCAD-W-10022018.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(10960,1,'2018-02-09 17:01:13','2018-02-09 22:01:13','','USDCHF M 10022018','','inherit','open','closed','','usdchf-m-10022018','','','2018-02-10 06:42:23','2018-02-10 11:42:23','',10962,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/USDCHF-M-10022018.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(10225,1,'2017-10-14 08:21:07','2017-10-14 13:21:07','&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nLast week was a light week for economic data but wow the news events were crazy. From a trading viewpoint, I had to split the week into two halves.\r\n\r\nMonday thru Wednesday was boring, boring, boring. Where has the volatility gone? I tweeted out several times phrases such as “chop fest”, “lots of flashing lights”. We can put lipstick on this market but the bottom line is “it is a PIG” the volatility that used to there has to a large extent dried up. If I wanted to look at flashing lights all day, I’ll put up the Christmas Tree early, this is a bit boring.\r\n\r\nThen on Thursday and Friday, Holy Mother of God, it was wild. BREXIT spiced it up, Draghi followed and the US inflation data was a small miss but OMG the market reaction was huge, probably due to the implications it could have on FED rate hikes in 2018.\r\n\r\nI added net pips but I also took losses on Friday. Annoying as it was, my CONTINGENT LIABILITY of all trades and limit orders added to together, was not at my limits but it was higher than usual due to quantity of trades I have at the moment.\r\n\r\nLooking towards the weekend with the geopolitical concerns still out there and the fact that these moves could motor into this week’s early trading, I decided to cut them out. I banked losses of just over 200 pips. The net pip increase for the week was therefore only 160 pips.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:\r\n\r\n</strong><u>2.1: LOOKING BACK AT LAST WEEK’S NEWS.</u></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nOnly three pieces of news last week resonated with me for this section and regular readers will not be surprised by my choices.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP</u></strong><u>: BREXIT NEGOTIATIONS REACH DEADLOCK then AN OLIVE BRANCH?</u>\r\n\r\nWell, “Glaze my nipples and call me Rita”, in the name of sanity what the bloody hell did the markets expect… a result?\r\n\r\nFor crying out loud, the clues have been stronger and stronger. The UK has been mentioning preparation for a “No deal” a lot recently.\r\n\r\nLast Thursday, after round 4 or 5 of the DIVORCE negotiations, the EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier and the UK equivalent MP and Tory Government Cabinet member David Davis announced the negotiations were deadlocked.\r\n\r\nQuelle bloody surprise!\r\n\r\nThe EU presented a running order of protocol to be ticked off in a strict A to B to C to D order, all nice and easy to follow. The Brits like the idea of D to B to A and then C. The obvious result is deadlock. So with the anticipation of deadlock, the decision to release more and more “sound bytes” about a “No deal” was probably a tactic to try to change the viewpoint of the EU.\r\n\r\nCable sold off, then later the same day out it comes from Barnier, what appears like a concession. Cable spikes back to remove all prior losses.\r\n\r\nMichel Barnier offers a two year “transition extension”. An olive branch, my arse it was not, it was pure genius.  This offer, ties the UK to meeting all EU financial obligations for an additional two years beyond the Article 50 deadline. Basically, in a nutshell… sure we’ll extend everything, but you have to meet all of our rules and regulations in the transition process.\r\n\r\nStep back for a moment....\r\n\r\nThe UK head negotiator (David Davis) is a politician who cannot appear weak as he would be slaughtered in both the Cabinet (behind closed doors) and (publicly ridiculed) in the UK House of Commons. The pressure not to give way on anything is massive, personally and politically as this will be in record books of his public service career.  All the pressure is on his head to achieve the best deal possible, which for the UK, is basically appearing to remain inside the EU but with border controls.\r\n\r\nThe EU chief negotiator is Michel Barnier. He is a French Republican Politician. He is representing 27 countries. His job is to follow the negotiation road map given to him by the “jotter blotters” in Brussels. This will at conclusion be presented to the 27 leaders of the EU for them to ratify.\r\n\r\nBarnier, although I am sure wants to do a great job, couldn’t give a rat’s ass about any fallout because all the pressure is on the UK. He can hold his hands aloft and claim to eternity that he has his road map that must be followed in order. Whether the UK are at fault or not, the blame for any negotiating breakdown can be switched very easily and all the pressure put back across the English Channel. Put yourself in Barnier’s position; it’s a high-profile role and it\'s a win, win no lose job. He just has to follow the guidelines. The transition deal if accepted was a gem in my opinion.\r\n\r\nOffering the two-year transition that Prime Minister May requested is a master stroke from Barnier. He gets the guarantee of badly needed money from the UK into the coffers of the EU in Brussels. It is the equivalent of a modern day “TROJAN HORSE”. However, this is NOT a done deal it needs to be ratified by at least Germany for it to be a runner.\r\n\r\nI still giggle at the HARD BREXIT versus SOFT BREXIT calls made by the media.\r\n\r\nA two-year transition does NOT automatically = SOFT BREXIT\r\n\r\nSOFT BREXIT = CONTAGION…. not going to happen\r\nSOFT BREXIT = CHERRY PICKING… not going to happen\r\n\r\nIf the transition deal is agreed it is nothing more than “Can kicking the issue down the road”.\r\n\r\nAt the back of my cynical mind; Theresa May requests the transition extension, this means that the Article 50 deadline date would now shift to March 2021, what could happen in the interim?\r\n\r\nNew parliamentary elections would have taken place.\r\nMaybe a new referendum on BREXIT?\r\nMaybe another Scottish Independence vote?\r\nA new Prime Minister of a new Government.\r\nA new (God help them) Minister in charge of negotiating the “divorce”.\r\n\r\nTheresa May effectively engineers her own BREXIT deal. She passes the poisoned chalice on.\r\n\r\nThe transition is not yet a done deal. This whole process is still covered in masses of uncertainties. I have no doubt some progress has been made but for the medias sake it’s all put forward as deadlock so far.\r\n\r\nThere simply was never enough time. I wrote months ago that it took Greenland with no way near the same complications of agreements as the UK to leave the full two-year limit. The UK was always going to be longer, it much more integrated and complicated.\r\n\r\nThis is still a huge unknown.\r\n\r\nIf the EU says no to the two-year transition, what then?\r\n\r\nCable drops like a brick because a “NO DEAL” walkaway looks to be the most obvious outcome?\r\n\r\nI know that the BOE have been relatively quiet of late, but I still find the news that the BOE are still considering a rate hike in amongst all this uncertainty plus a series of recent poor economic data more than outweighing any good data, incredible to consider, and frankly, its worthy of a comparison with a Las Vegas high stakes poker room gamble.\r\n\r\nThe latest BCC (British Chamber of Commerce) Quarterly Economic survey of businesses (what a great read), whilst it would send most people to sleep, its overall summation on the current UK economic position from its members was “uninspiring”. Now that\'s what I call a real vote of confidence…. NOT!\r\n\r\nTo raise rates with so much up in the air is a; huge / massive / almighty gamble in my opinion. Not befitting a responsible Central Bank.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>ECB:</u></strong><u> CATALONIA and MARIO DRAGHI (ECB). </u>\r\n\r\nYou couldn’t make this stuff up.\r\n\r\nThe Catalonian declaration of independence was placed on hold, whist the Catalan president Carles Puidegemont stated that it would be suspended whilst he held talks with Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rahoy, who has already basically told him to feck off…. In the nicest possible terms.\r\n\r\nCatalonia accounts for about 40% of Spain’s GDP, so for this reason alone Madrid WILL NOT want to let it go anywhere, hence all the shenanigans. In my opinion, Catalonia is the biggest risk to the EUROZONE since GREECE. It is a massive risk to the Spanish economic recovery.\r\n\r\nI write this, but this is NOT reflected in the price action of the EURO at all. It is in a very tight range and has been for some time.\r\n\r\nWhat has now been created in the Catalan/Madrid crisis is nothing more than polarization.\r\n\r\nWhat is the way forward?\r\n\r\nBusinesses are looking to leave Catalonia. Catalonia would NOT be an instant member of the EU. How could it raise capital to operate? Maybe against future tax income? I see this as a credit event, enormous high risk and this whole matter appears to have not been thought out properly.\r\n\r\nPuidgemont tried to use the referendum vote to pressure Madrid for change, but that seems a tall order to say the least given the financial implications to Spain.\r\n\r\nThis will NOT end well. There will be more unrest to come, but unless a well-drawn out plan is visible, from the outside looking in, this is a mess. It simply cannot be good for the single currency the longer it drags on. Lines in the sand have been drawn and the political and economic risks are obvious on both sides.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nMario Draghi and the ECB governing council as I have mentioned before are taking massive doses of Prozac to try and keep themselves steady as decision day looms on ECB future monetary policy.\r\n\r\nDraghi has said “Based on our regular economic and monetary analyses, we decided to keep the key ECB interest rates unchanged. We expect them to remain at their present levels for an extended period of time, and <strong><u>WELL PAST</u></strong> the horizon of our net asset purchases”\r\n\r\nThat\'s pretty clear to me. The German’s however are not happy with this statement and want change.\r\n\r\nThe current rate of ECB QE (Quantitative Easing) bond buying is at €60 Billion per month. The rumours about this moving forward is that in two weeks’ time at the next ECB Press Conference, Draghi will announce a cut in the monthly purchases to €30 Billion per month from early 2018 and run this reduced volume for about 9 months before the “tapering” will end completely.\r\n\r\nSo… there you have it; forward guidance from the ECB in a nutshell and its very clear so that we can all understand and follow. Will the markets get it?\r\n\r\nHow do I intend to trade the single currency moving forward? For that you will need to subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD</u></strong><u>: FOMC MEETING MINUTES and THE US DOLLAR INDEX (DXY).</u>\r\n\r\nWTF…\r\n\r\nThe minutes reflected the statement.\r\n\r\nHowever, the USD was sold off as I think that the reality of no inflation was starting to hit board members. These minutes were before the bombshell of “THE FED HAS NO CLUE ABOUT INFLATION” and Yellen’s “SIGNS OF INFLATION &amp; TRANSITORY” were used at the last press conference. The minutes were also written before Yellen’s comments regarding the Fed models on inflation calculations are basically crap and inept… those latter descriptive words were mine!!\r\n\r\nThe market sold off after the minutes, the fear of less tightening because of no inflation in 2018 may have rung a few alarm bells… finally. This market is fickle, it over reacts to old news repeatedly and can be painful to follow at times.\r\n\r\nI have found trading this year a challenge, to put it mildly.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nFED or not, the DXY is at a crossroads and we are either going sub 91.00 or higher through 94.00 in the coming sessions.\r\n\r\nAt times over these past weeks I am trading on the basis that the FED are raising rates period, and its pure Technicals on the DXY that will determine its direction. FED policy appears secondary.\r\n\r\nI still find it hard to be long the USD. It has, like I said last week sold off since the TRUMP inauguration. I am looking for reasons to be long the USD both FUNDAMENTALLY and TECHNICALLY. A week ago, I had oversold conditions as a reason that may influence the markets, those have now gone.\r\n\r\nMoving forward, THE DONALD wants low rates and a weak USD. The US will manipulate the USD lower if it has to, it has done so before.\r\n\r\nThis is my most watched chart of late and it will be over the coming sessions as I believe that this chart will be at the basis of most FX strategies being formulated for the short and medium terms moving forward.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/DXY-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10194\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/DXY-15102017-1024x516.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"516\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2: LOOKING AHEAD TO THIS COMING WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n2.2.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ECON-DATA-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10195\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ECON-DATA-15102017-1024x775.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"775\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.2: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/TCHART-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10196\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/TCHART-15102017-1024x838.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"838\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.3: USD – TRADING CHARTS and COMMENTARIES: </u>\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>EUR/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/EURUSD-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10207\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/EURUSD-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/GBPUSD-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10208\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/GBPUSD-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/AUDUSD-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10206\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/AUDUSD-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/NZDUSD-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10209\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/NZDUSD-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCAD-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10210\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCAD-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCHF-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10211\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCHF-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDJPY-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10212\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDJPY-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.4: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:\r\n\r\n</u>Thankfully more economic data than last week to choose from. The following all UK based tickle my fancy…\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP:</u></strong><u> CPI, AVERAGE EARNINGS, RETAIL SALES &amp; CARNEY</u>.\r\n\r\nIt\'s a very awesome set up this week for UK news.\r\n\r\nInflation data, Average Earnings and Carney, you could not plan a diary better except for the fact I would have Carney speak after the Retails Sales numbers on Thursday, rather than have him fronting the news events.\r\n\r\nThis data will seal the fate of UK interest rates in November in my opinion. The BOE is ready to push up interest rates and stronger inflation data will probably seal that deal. If there is to be a spanner in the works, it will either come from the increased BREXIT uncertainty that is hanging over the markets at the moment or from the Average Earning Index if it still shows lagging too far behind inflation. However, I think the accountants at the BOE have Carney by the short and curly’s and the one and done hike I think he hopes will keep the wolves from the door.\r\n\r\nI wrote earlier in the blog about my concerns and the gamble I believe that this move would be, so I am not going to repeat myself.\r\n\r\nBy the time, Carney speaks we should know if the BREXIT transition deal is a runner or not or whether the government has rejected it, in which case it will be very interesting to hear what Carney has to say on this subject and if it will affect the BOE thought process on interest rate increases.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.5: HOW TO PLAY THE MARKET THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\nAs we ended last week with the USD getting whacked, one must expect this treat to carry forward into the start of trading this coming week.\r\n\r\nMy focus will be on the USD index (DXY). The level of 90.93 is crucial in my opinion. Should this level break, we could be heading to the mid 80’s. The possible effect of a move sub 90.93 should not be underestimated.\r\n\r\nFrom a macro level the FED are probably still going to hike in December but unless inflation picks up one should question whether the December 2017 rate increase will be the only one until the same time in 2018 (I am assuming that the new FED chairperson in February will play the usual game of stringing the markets along for the year on possible hikes, and make one at the year end to maintain credibility).\r\n\r\nHere are my thoughts: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Should the DXY break lower what happens to EUR/USD?</li>\r\n 	<li>The ECB does NOT want EUR/USD exchange rates above 1.2000. A mid 80’s print in the DXY would have EUR/USD closer to 1.2500 possibly above that level.</li>\r\n 	<li>The effects of a FED rate rise on the DXY should it already be towards the mid 80’s would be minimal.</li>\r\n 	<li>Other G8 Central Banks could not rely on the FED to counter balance any rate increases that they may have planned, as in my opinion the USD would be one weak “sister!”. Therefore, I believe the moves by other Central Banks to normalization or to raise their interest rates could be held back.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThose points are really for the future but they are with me at the moment. My focus would be on cross rate pairs until the situation with the USD has settled down. Trading the USD has an increased risk element attached to it at the moment given the geopolitical risks that would have a direct effect, therefore keeping way from the USD for a while in any event is perhaps not the worst trading idea.\r\n\r\nUp until the end of last week the EUR/AUD &amp; EUR/NZD were great options and they should be again once they have finished their corrective moves lower.\r\n\r\nYou DO NOT need to trade every day. Days when maybe you do not trade can be your best days as CASH is a position.\r\n\r\nThere is a lot for the market to digest at the present time on the heels of NFP. Let the market correct first and wait for it to give a trading signal.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is my own subscriber based Forex support service that offers subscribers my suggested trade set-ups and market commentaries.\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting the HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE tab.\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT 2017 PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nOCTOBER 2017 TO DATE:           +160 net pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE 2017:                    +8,047 net pips\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs on my website  <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nAlternatively, if you prefer to watch a video recording about the PREMIUM SERVICE, click the link below. You will be directed to a 40-minute webinar presentation entitled “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE”.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS ONLY:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4.1: TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\n4.1.1: RISK MANAGEMENT AND POSITION SIZING: <u>\r\n\r\n</u><u>4.2: SENTIMENT CHART,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:\r\n</u><u>\r\n</u><u>4.3: EXISTING CORE TRADES (PLANS &amp; STRATEGIES):</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.4: CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.5: FX BROKER NEWS with their MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FINISHING LINE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.1: WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you have read in this blog and would like the chance to win a FREE SUBSCRIPTION valued at CAD$150.00, all you should do is subscribe to my FREE NEWSLETTER (this blog), by adding your email address on my welcome page just below my cube logo at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\n<u>5.2: PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTIONS:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you’ve read in this blog and should you want to go a stage further and subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE, this can be done on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the Tab SUBSCRIBE HERE.\r\n\r\nSubscribing to the PREMIUM SERVICE is not just about receiving a larger “DRIVE THRU” blog packed with more trading supporting information, my thoughts and ideas. There is much more to a subscription than those things. Check it all out under the tab HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nAlternatively, if you prefer to watch a video recording about the PREMIUM SERVICE, click the link below. You will be directed to a 40-minute webinar presentation entitled “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE”.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n5.3: CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\n\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\nBLOG VERSION: #255 DRIVE THRU\r\n15th October 2017\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','THE EU TROJAN HORSE','','inherit','closed','closed','','10224-revision-v1','','','2017-10-14 08:21:07','2017-10-14 13:21:07','',10224,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/10224-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(10226,1,'2017-10-14 08:22:51','2017-10-14 13:22:51','&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nLast week was a light week for economic data but wow the news events were crazy. From a trading viewpoint, I had to split the week into two halves.\r\n\r\nMonday thru Wednesday was boring, boring, boring. Where has the volatility gone? I tweeted out several times phrases such as “chop fest”, “lots of flashing lights”. We can put lipstick on this market but the bottom line is “it is a PIG” the volatility that used to there has to a large extent dried up. If I wanted to look at flashing lights all day, I’ll put up the Christmas Tree early, this is a bit boring.\r\n\r\nThen on Thursday and Friday, Holy Mother of God, it was wild. BREXIT spiced it up, Draghi followed and the US inflation data was a small miss but OMG the market reaction was huge, probably due to the implications it could have on FED rate hikes in 2018.\r\n\r\nI added net pips but I also took losses on Friday. Annoying as it was, my CONTINGENT LIABILITY of all trades and limit orders added to together, was not at my limits but it was higher than usual due to quantity of trades I have at the moment.\r\n\r\nLooking towards the weekend with the geopolitical concerns still out there and the fact that these moves could motor into this week’s early trading, I decided to cut them out. I banked losses of just over 200 pips. The net pip increase for the week was therefore only 160 pips.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong> </strong></p>\r\n\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong></strong><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:\r\n\r\n\r\n</strong><u>2.1: LOOKING BACK AT LAST WEEK’S NEWS.\r\n\r\n</u></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nOnly three pieces of news last week resonated with me for this section and regular readers will not be surprised by my choices.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP</u></strong><u>: BREXIT NEGOTIATIONS REACH DEADLOCK then AN OLIVE BRANCH?</u>\r\n\r\nWell, “Glaze my nipples and call me Rita”, in the name of sanity what the bloody hell did the markets expect… a result?\r\n\r\nFor crying out loud, the clues have been stronger and stronger. The UK has been mentioning preparation for a “No deal” a lot recently.\r\n\r\nLast Thursday, after round 4 or 5 of the DIVORCE negotiations, the EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier and the UK equivalent MP and Tory Government Cabinet member David Davis announced the negotiations were deadlocked.\r\n\r\nQuelle bloody surprise!\r\n\r\nThe EU presented a running order of protocol to be ticked off in a strict A to B to C to D order, all nice and easy to follow. The Brits like the idea of D to B to A and then C. The obvious result is deadlock. So with the anticipation of deadlock, the decision to release more and more “sound bytes” about a “No deal” was probably a tactic to try to change the viewpoint of the EU.\r\n\r\nCable sold off, then later the same day out it comes from Barnier, what appears like a concession. Cable spikes back to remove all prior losses.\r\n\r\nMichel Barnier offers a two year “transition extension”. An olive branch, my arse it was not, it was pure genius.  This offer, ties the UK to meeting all EU financial obligations for an additional two years beyond the Article 50 deadline. Basically, in a nutshell… sure we’ll extend everything, but you have to meet all of our rules and regulations in the transition process.\r\n\r\nStep back for a moment....\r\n\r\nThe UK head negotiator (David Davis) is a politician who cannot appear weak as he would be slaughtered in both the Cabinet (behind closed doors) and (publicly ridiculed) in the UK House of Commons. The pressure not to give way on anything is massive, personally and politically as this will be in record books of his public service career.  All the pressure is on his head to achieve the best deal possible, which for the UK, is basically appearing to remain inside the EU but with border controls.\r\n\r\nThe EU chief negotiator is Michel Barnier. He is a French Republican Politician. He is representing 27 countries. His job is to follow the negotiation road map given to him by the “jotter blotters” in Brussels. This will at conclusion be presented to the 27 leaders of the EU for them to ratify.\r\n\r\nBarnier, although I am sure wants to do a great job, couldn’t give a rat’s ass about any fallout because all the pressure is on the UK. He can hold his hands aloft and claim to eternity that he has his road map that must be followed in order. Whether the UK are at fault or not, the blame for any negotiating breakdown can be switched very easily and all the pressure put back across the English Channel. Put yourself in Barnier’s position; it’s a high-profile role and it\'s a win, win no lose job. He just has to follow the guidelines. The transition deal if accepted was a gem in my opinion.\r\n\r\nOffering the two-year transition that Prime Minister May requested is a master stroke from Barnier. He gets the guarantee of badly needed money from the UK into the coffers of the EU in Brussels. It is the equivalent of a modern day “TROJAN HORSE”. However, this is NOT a done deal it needs to be ratified by at least Germany for it to be a runner.\r\n\r\nI still giggle at the HARD BREXIT versus SOFT BREXIT calls made by the media.\r\n\r\nA two-year transition does NOT automatically = SOFT BREXIT\r\n\r\nSOFT BREXIT = CONTAGION…. not going to happen\r\nSOFT BREXIT = CHERRY PICKING… not going to happen\r\n\r\nIf the transition deal is agreed it is nothing more than “Can kicking the issue down the road”.\r\n\r\nAt the back of my cynical mind; Theresa May requests the transition extension, this means that the Article 50 deadline date would now shift to March 2021, what could happen in the interim?\r\n\r\nNew parliamentary elections would have taken place.\r\nMaybe a new referendum on BREXIT?\r\nMaybe another Scottish Independence vote?\r\nA new Prime Minister of a new Government.\r\nA new (God help them) Minister in charge of negotiating the “divorce”.\r\n\r\nTheresa May effectively engineers her own BREXIT deal. She passes the poisoned chalice on.\r\n\r\nThe transition is not yet a done deal. This whole process is still covered in masses of uncertainties. I have no doubt some progress has been made but for the medias sake it’s all put forward as deadlock so far.\r\n\r\nThere simply was never enough time. I wrote months ago that it took Greenland with no way near the same complications of agreements as the UK to leave the full two-year limit. The UK was always going to be longer, it much more integrated and complicated.\r\n\r\nThis is still a huge unknown.\r\n\r\nIf the EU says no to the two-year transition, what then?\r\n\r\nCable drops like a brick because a “NO DEAL” walkaway looks to be the most obvious outcome?\r\n\r\nI know that the BOE have been relatively quiet of late, but I still find the news that the BOE are still considering a rate hike in amongst all this uncertainty plus a series of recent poor economic data more than outweighing any good data, incredible to consider, and frankly, its worthy of a comparison with a Las Vegas high stakes poker room gamble.\r\n\r\nThe latest BCC (British Chamber of Commerce) Quarterly Economic survey of businesses (what a great read), whilst it would send most people to sleep, its overall summation on the current UK economic position from its members was “uninspiring”. Now that\'s what I call a real vote of confidence…. NOT!\r\n\r\nTo raise rates with so much up in the air is a; huge / massive / almighty gamble in my opinion. Not befitting a responsible Central Bank.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>ECB:</u></strong><u> CATALONIA and MARIO DRAGHI (ECB). </u>\r\n\r\nYou couldn’t make this stuff up.\r\n\r\nThe Catalonian declaration of independence was placed on hold, whist the Catalan president Carles Puidegemont stated that it would be suspended whilst he held talks with Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rahoy, who has already basically told him to feck off…. In the nicest possible terms.\r\n\r\nCatalonia accounts for about 40% of Spain’s GDP, so for this reason alone Madrid WILL NOT want to let it go anywhere, hence all the shenanigans. In my opinion, Catalonia is the biggest risk to the EUROZONE since GREECE. It is a massive risk to the Spanish economic recovery.\r\n\r\nI write this, but this is NOT reflected in the price action of the EURO at all. It is in a very tight range and has been for some time.\r\n\r\nWhat has now been created in the Catalan/Madrid crisis is nothing more than polarization.\r\n\r\nWhat is the way forward?\r\n\r\nBusinesses are looking to leave Catalonia. Catalonia would NOT be an instant member of the EU. How could it raise capital to operate? Maybe against future tax income? I see this as a credit event, enormous high risk and this whole matter appears to have not been thought out properly.\r\n\r\nPuidgemont tried to use the referendum vote to pressure Madrid for change, but that seems a tall order to say the least given the financial implications to Spain.\r\n\r\nThis will NOT end well. There will be more unrest to come, but unless a well-drawn out plan is visible, from the outside looking in, this is a mess. It simply cannot be good for the single currency the longer it drags on. Lines in the sand have been drawn and the political and economic risks are obvious on both sides.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nMario Draghi and the ECB governing council as I have mentioned before are taking massive doses of Prozac to try and keep themselves steady as decision day looms on ECB future monetary policy.\r\n\r\nDraghi has said “Based on our regular economic and monetary analyses, we decided to keep the key ECB interest rates unchanged. We expect them to remain at their present levels for an extended period of time, and <strong><u>WELL PAST</u></strong> the horizon of our net asset purchases”\r\n\r\nThat\'s pretty clear to me. The German’s however are not happy with this statement and want change.\r\n\r\nThe current rate of ECB QE (Quantitative Easing) bond buying is at €60 Billion per month. The rumours about this moving forward is that in two weeks’ time at the next ECB Press Conference, Draghi will announce a cut in the monthly purchases to €30 Billion per month from early 2018 and run this reduced volume for about 9 months before the “tapering” will end completely.\r\n\r\nSo… there you have it; forward guidance from the ECB in a nutshell and its very clear so that we can all understand and follow. Will the markets get it?\r\n\r\nHow do I intend to trade the single currency moving forward? For that you will need to subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>USD</u></strong><u>: FOMC MEETING MINUTES and THE US DOLLAR INDEX (DXY).</u>\r\n\r\nWTF…\r\n\r\nThe minutes reflected the statement.\r\n\r\nHowever, the USD was sold off as I think that the reality of no inflation was starting to hit board members. These minutes were before the bombshell of “THE FED HAS NO CLUE ABOUT INFLATION” and Yellen’s “SIGNS OF INFLATION &amp; TRANSITORY” were used at the last press conference. The minutes were also written before Yellen’s comments regarding the Fed models on inflation calculations are basically crap and inept… those latter descriptive words were mine!!\r\n\r\nThe market sold off after the minutes, the fear of less tightening because of no inflation in 2018 may have rung a few alarm bells… finally. This market is fickle, it over reacts to old news repeatedly and can be painful to follow at times.\r\n\r\nI have found trading this year a challenge, to put it mildly.\r\n\r\nMoving on…\r\n\r\nFED or not, the DXY is at a crossroads and we are either going sub 91.00 or higher through 94.00 in the coming sessions.\r\n\r\nAt times over these past weeks I am trading on the basis that the FED are raising rates period, and its pure Technicals on the DXY that will determine its direction. FED policy appears secondary.\r\n\r\nI still find it hard to be long the USD. It has, like I said last week sold off since the TRUMP inauguration. I am looking for reasons to be long the USD both FUNDAMENTALLY and TECHNICALLY. A week ago, I had oversold conditions as a reason that may influence the markets, those have now gone.\r\n\r\nMoving forward, THE DONALD wants low rates and a weak USD. The US will manipulate the USD lower if it has to, it has done so before.\r\n\r\nThis is my most watched chart of late and it will be over the coming sessions as I believe that this chart will be at the basis of most FX strategies being formulated for the short and medium terms moving forward.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/DXY-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10194\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/DXY-15102017-1024x516.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"516\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2: LOOKING AHEAD TO THIS COMING WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n2.2.1: THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ECON-DATA-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10195\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ECON-DATA-15102017-1024x775.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"775\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.2: USD MAJORS – MY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS:</u>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/TCHART-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10196\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/TCHART-15102017-1024x838.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"838\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.3: USD – TRADING CHARTS and COMMENTARIES: </u>\r\n\r\nThe charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n</strong>EUR/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/EURUSD-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10207\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/EURUSD-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/GBPUSD-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10208\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/GBPUSD-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/AUDUSD-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10206\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/AUDUSD-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/NZDUSD-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10209\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/NZDUSD-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCAD-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10210\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCAD-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCHF-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10211\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDCHF-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDJPY-D-15102017.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-10212\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/USDJPY-D-15102017-1024x452.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"452\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.4: MY THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:</u>\r\n\r\nThankfully more economic data than last week to choose from. The following all UK based tickle my fancy…\r\n\r\n<strong><u>GBP:</u></strong><u> CPI, AVERAGE EARNINGS, RETAIL SALES &amp; CARNEY</u>.\r\n\r\nIt\'s a very awesome set up this week for UK news.\r\n\r\nInflation data, Average Earnings and Carney, you could not plan a diary better except for the fact I would have Carney speak after the Retails Sales numbers on Thursday, rather than have him fronting the news events.\r\n\r\nThis data will seal the fate of UK interest rates in November in my opinion. The BOE is ready to push up interest rates and stronger inflation data will probably seal that deal. If there is to be a spanner in the works, it will either come from the increased BREXIT uncertainty that is hanging over the markets at the moment or from the Average Earning Index if it still shows lagging too far behind inflation. However, I think the accountants at the BOE have Carney by the short and curly’s and the one and done hike I think he hopes will keep the wolves from the door.\r\n\r\nI wrote earlier in the blog about my concerns and the gamble I believe that this move would be, so I am not going to repeat myself.\r\n\r\nBy the time, Carney speaks we should know if the BREXIT transition deal is a runner or not or whether the government has rejected it, in which case it will be very interesting to hear what Carney has to say on this subject and if it will affect the BOE thought process on interest rate increases.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>2.2.5: HOW TO PLAY THE MARKET THIS WEEK:</u>\r\n\r\nAs we ended last week with the USD getting whacked, one must expect this treat to carry forward into the start of trading this coming week.\r\n\r\nMy focus will be on the USD index (DXY). The level of 90.93 is crucial in my opinion. Should this level break, we could be heading to the mid 80’s. The possible effect of a move sub 90.93 should not be underestimated.\r\n\r\nFrom a macro level the FED are probably still going to hike in December but unless inflation picks up one should question whether the December 2017 rate increase will be the only one until the same time in 2018 (I am assuming that the new FED chairperson in February will play the usual game of stringing the markets along for the year on possible hikes, and make one at the year end to maintain credibility).\r\n\r\nHere are my thoughts: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Should the DXY break lower what happens to EUR/USD?</li>\r\n 	<li>The ECB does NOT want EUR/USD exchange rates above 1.2000. A mid 80’s print in the DXY would have EUR/USD closer to 1.2500 possibly above that level.</li>\r\n 	<li>The effects of a FED rate rise on the DXY should it already be towards the mid 80’s would be minimal.</li>\r\n 	<li>Other G8 Central Banks could not rely on the FED to counter balance any rate increases that they may have planned, as in my opinion the USD would be one weak “sister!”. Therefore, I believe the moves by other Central Banks to normalization or to raise their interest rates could be held back.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThose points are really for the future but they are with me at the moment. My focus would be on cross rate pairs until the situation with the USD has settled down. Trading the USD has an increased risk element attached to it at the moment given the geopolitical risks that would have a direct effect, therefore keeping way from the USD for a while in any event is perhaps not the worst trading idea.\r\n\r\nUp until the end of last week the EUR/AUD &amp; EUR/NZD were great options and they should be again once they have finished their corrective moves lower.\r\n\r\nYou DO NOT need to trade every day. Days when maybe you do not trade can be your best days as CASH is a position.\r\n\r\nThere is a lot for the market to digest at the present time on the heels of NFP. Let the market correct first and wait for it to give a trading signal.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is my own subscriber based Forex support service that offers subscribers my suggested trade set-ups and market commentaries.\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting the HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE tab.\r\n\r\n<u>CURRENT 2017 PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:</u>\r\nOCTOBER 2017 TO DATE:           +160 net pips\r\nYEAR TO DATE 2017:                    +8,047 net pips\r\nFurther information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs on my website  <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nAlternatively, if you prefer to watch a video recording about the PREMIUM SERVICE, click the link below. You will be directed to a 40-minute webinar presentation entitled “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE”.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS ONLY:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)\r\n\r\n<u>4.1: TRADING REVIEW:</u>\r\n\r\n4.1.1: RISK MANAGEMENT AND POSITION SIZING: <u></u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.2: SENTIMENT CHART,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:\r\n</u><u>\r\n</u><u>4.3: EXISTING CORE TRADES (PLANS &amp; STRATEGIES):</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.4: CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>\r\n\r\n<u>4.5: FX BROKER NEWS with their MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FINISHING LINE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>5.1: WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you have read in this blog and would like the chance to win a FREE SUBSCRIPTION valued at CAD$150.00, all you should do is subscribe to my FREE NEWSLETTER (this blog), by adding your email address on my welcome page just below my cube logo at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\n<u>5.2: PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTIONS:</u>\r\n\r\nIf you like what you’ve read in this blog and should you want to go a stage further and subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE, this can be done on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the Tab SUBSCRIBE HERE.\r\n\r\nSubscribing to the PREMIUM SERVICE is not just about receiving a larger “DRIVE THRU” blog packed with more trading supporting information, my thoughts and ideas. There is much more to a subscription than those things. Check it all out under the tab HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nAlternatively, if you prefer to watch a video recording about the PREMIUM SERVICE, click the link below. You will be directed to a 40-minute webinar presentation entitled “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE”.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX\">http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX</a>\r\n\r\nTo subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.\r\n\r\n<u>\r\n5.3: CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nNothing more to add here, I have said enough except,\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\n\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\nBLOG VERSION: #255 DRIVE THRU\r\n15th October 2017\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','THE EU TROJAN HORSE','','inherit','closed','closed','','10224-revision-v1','','','2017-10-14 08:22:51','2017-10-14 13:22:51','',10224,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/10224-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),