<h3 style="text-align: center;"><strong>THE PREMIUM SERVICE
</strong><strong>The Home of Single-Lot $$$$ Trading.
This year to date, the profits are now in excess of <span style="text-decoration: underline;">$30,000.00</span> from 139 completed trades.</strong></h3>
<strong>DATE: 15.03.2015
REFERENCE: #143
</strong><strong>BLOG: THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU</strong>
<ol>
	<li><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"> INTRODUCTION:</span></strong></li>
</ol>
<span style="text-decoration: underline;">1.1 LOOKING BACKWARD, FORWARD &amp; SIDEWAYS AT THE FX MARKET:</span>

Looking backward…

My main title of the blog last week following the huge moves in the USD was,

<strong>DON’T GET SUCKERED INTO USD LONG TRADES NOW</strong>

well…I got that wrong. The DXY powered onwards and upwards to touch the big triple digit 100.00 and then pulled back. Since that day, we have really just bounced around and range traded.

We saw very big moves lower with the cable and on Friday last week the EUR/USD broke below 1.0500. The GBP/USD broke recent lows sub 1.4777 to test 1.4700 and the EUR/USD dropped and took stops below 1.0500. I think that as we have an FOMC statement and the fact that Janet Yellen has a press conference this week to some extent the markets were adjusting positions, squaring off ahead and in anticipation of what the FOMC statement will be. The key of course is whether the word PATIENT is or is not included in the press release.

The power of the USD I believe has taken a lot of people by surprise. Most pundits / experts on TV have never seen the USD flex it’s muscles. It has always been generally weak and kept in its box. It has been and continues to defy gravity by some explosive upward moves. I still believe that we should see some consolidation. How high will it go? Potentially up to 125.00. It sounds crazy but with Central Bank divergence between the FED and ECB it is possible. This places the EUR/USD below parity around 0.9000. Yesterday, Goldman Sachs released 2015 and 2016 currency targets for the EUR/USD – they are quoting 0.9000 and 0.8600 as potential targets. Who knows? … watch this space.

My mate, Graeme Wheeler (RBNZ Governor), held rates at 3.50% and gave the usual two-sided Press Conference; balancing comments between DOVISH and HAWKISH, just to keep you guessing. My thoughts were more DOVISH, so I shorted the NZD/USD and posted a 48 pip loss. We actually had quite a substantial rally off the lows, of about 250 pips in total, before starting to fall back again in line with USD strength.

Looking forward….

The big news in the past 5 days of trading was the USD (DXY). This makes for a very interesting FOMC day on Wednesday. I will be out of all USD related trades well before the statement is released and unless you are a gambler of the high-stakes tables at Las Vegas I suggest you clear your USD related trades

My approach to Forex is based on a lower risk assessment of each trade. I learnt a long time ago that FX could be a 50-50 gamble on direction. I admit those odds appeal to gamblers, but longevity in trading is what FX is all about and the “Slow and Steady wins the race” approach will always win out.

Mr. Jordan (Thomas Jordan) Governor of the SNB also takes to the stage this week with SNB Libor and a rate/Policy statement. I have to use Mr. for the SNB Governor as following the PEG removal of the EUR/CHF earlier this year, that move has elevated him to the history books…mucho $$$$$$ lost around the world a little profit here and there and thousands of jobs lost as a result. Yup… history book stuff. (Thomas Jordan is Mr. and Graeme Wheeler is my mate). I would strongly suspect that this policy statement from the SNB could be quite interesting given the recent moves in all related CHF pairs except the EUR/CHF. I do NOT want to start rumours but DO NOT rule out the SNB desire to have a new floor / PEG in the EUR/CHF of 1.1000 being announced…just saying. They could also move in increasing the negative deposit rate higher from the current 0.75%. As Peter Frampton would sing do not get caught “Asleep at the wheel”.

Looking sideways….

In eight years of trading, I do not think apart from the 2008/9 crash I have ever witnessed the Forex market being at such extremes. Mark my words, this will end in tears....

<em>“Divergences &amp; poor correlations for an extended period = capitulation moves”</em>

I do not want to talk about BLACK SWAN events or the like, but the drop in the EUR/USD is now epic. Last May we were at 1.3972. We closed last week at 1.0495… that is 3,477 pips lower in about 9 months given a day or two.

We could see the mother of all drops this week if the FOMC announces that rates will still rise prior to the summer.

This FOMC news event is so important it will set up the FX market directionally for the next couple of months at the very least. DO NOT RISK YOUR BROKER ACCOUNT BY TRYING TO SECOND GUESS THE FOMC…close all USD related trades ahead of the event. Whatever way the FOMC decides on interest rates there will be opportunities to make lots of pips. The greatest feature and benefit of trading the Forex market is that there are moves everyday and there are opportunities everyday. DO NOT BE A SUCKER giving sucker money to your broker’s wallet.

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<ol start="2">
	<li><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"> WHAT’S ON MY MIND: -
THE FUNDAMENTAL TRADERS OVERVIEW:</span></strong></li>
</ol>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>WILL THE FOMC BREAK THE EUR/USD ON WEDNESDAY?
</strong><strong>And
</strong><strong>AHEAD OF THE FOMC… THE SMART MONEY IS ALREADY IN CASH</strong></p>
I have been making notes all week about this week’s article. Before the week started I knew what my subject was going to be, it was just a question of deciding the content as the week progressed. From what I thought I would be writing at the start of the week, to what I am writing now, is about 80% similar. The big difference is that I did not think the FOMC release, (albeit important and market moving), would be such a huge pivotal piece of data, as I believe it is going to be.

In the past I have used words and phrases like “CROSSROADS”, “PRECIPICE”, “WHERE THE GRAVEL MEETS THE ROAD” and “THE LINE IN THE SAND” when describing key data releases etc. This Wednesday is one of those crucial days for data. Without doubt this is Janet Yellen’s most crucial few hours as Fed Chair since replacing Ben Bernanke.

I have a few economic arguments related to the strength of the USD and what the major issues are for the FED. However, before listing these, I want to say that from day one in office, Janet Yellen has stuck to her guns on commentary. She has painstakingly delivered a consistent message to the markets on when she is going to raise interest rates. She moved the markets away from employment percentages to being more reliant on data. She has said consistently of late that movements in interest rates will be data dependent. In fact of late, like many other Central Bank Presidents or Governors she has shown more of a concern over DEFLATION than anything else.

Lets face the facts; there is an economic slowdown. We are bouncing along the bottom, there are NO consistencies of economic growth in the world, China is slowing down and there are divergences all over the markets to ponder.

It all comes down to one word from the FOMC statement. If PATIENT is removed the EUR/USD will be crushed through parity within weeks. I know it sounds crazy, but this statement on Wednesday has a lot to do with saving face. The FED has said that interest rates are going to rise in the U.S. If they pullback from this position the USD will get crushed instead. But if the FED rescinds on raising rates no-one will believe a word uttered from them again and the markets will lose what it needs above all else, certainty of FED monetary policy. Uncertainty, which is what will happen if rates do not rise, this would be a huge step back for the markets. Of course, the FED can say that interest rates are still going to rise in 2015 but not before the summer.

My view is that the chatter on FED rate increases has reached the point where the FED needs to act, and, above all else, be clear and as unambiguous as possible on future actions.

I think she will intimate a rate increase of 0.25% to be done June or July and the EUR/USD will get crushed as a result. Previous blogs refer to Central bank divergences; the ECB is accommodative, dovish and interest rates low for years to come. The FED raising rates is hawkish. The divergence will provide a sell-off of huge proportions.

So it’s dead simple….

Not that fast….

The FED has the ultimate dilemma.

The 800lb gorilla in the room is DEFLATION.

The FED does NOT want DEFLATION as the strong USD gives DEFLATION through lower import prices on goods imported into the USA from abroad. How on earth with DEFLATION can the FED achieve its 2% INFLATION target?

So basically as I see it Janet Yellen is dammed if she doesn’t and dammed if she does.

If she raises rates like I think she will, the EMERGING MARKETS could be faced with a crash not unlike 1997. The ramification of U.S. monetary policy is felt worldwide.

If she doesn’t raise rates, I believe that the markets will see this as a rate cut…stocks will rally and the USD will weaken. But, this places future FED speak into the “yeah right!!” category of do you or don't you believe them in the future. This is a risk and Central Bankers do NOT like or take risks. No rate cut would say to the markets that the economic data is so poor, that it my opinion it could lead to another bout of QE…. QE4!!!

I believe that clever / smart equity market traders will have cashed out many of their positions ahead of the FOMC. Equity markets cash from the U.S. is being placed into the European bourses like the DAX. There are some U.S. investors that are mandated to keep their money in the U.S. I think they will have it in cash at the moment until they see what the FED does.

There is uncertainty in the equity markets, in particular the U.S., and it is evident for all to see the divergence between the DAX and S&amp;P.

With uncertainty in the U.S. one might expect a flight to safety with GOLD. But I see GOLD as a huge DEFLATION trade at the moment. The higher return in the USD is in direct comparison to China weakness, the ECB QE program and Japanese future economic uncertainty.

It is clear-cut in my eyes.

From an equity perspective, the SMART MONEY has reduced positions in U.S. equities.

From an FX perspective, Forex Traders are either going to get a major sell-off or a bounce in the EUR/USD. It is all based on the FED’s interpretation of U.S. economic data. If the FOMC says that interest rates can’t move because the data is still not good enough…. the USD will get crushed and I predict QE4.

It is huge decision, some may say gamble because Yellen will NOT want to lose face by not raising interest rates. This could create huge credibility issues moving forward.

I am in the camp of a June or July rate hike.

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<ol start="3">
	<li><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:

</span></strong></li>
</ol>
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">SUMMARY OF PERFORMANCE:</span></strong>

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">3.1 OVERVIEW:</span>

For new readers who may not be aware, I refer to the PREMIUM SERVICE quite a lot in this blog and for more details about what it is, and, how much it costs, you will need to go the welcome page of <a href="http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> At the top of the page there are three drop down menus: PREMIUM SERVICE, PROMOTIONS (if available), SIGN-UP and DISCLAIMER. Further details and how to join are all contained there. You will need at PayPal account to subscribe.

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">3.2.1 PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIPTION COSTS:</span>

Full details regarding the PREMIUM SERVICE can be found on my website <a href="http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>
<p style="text-align: center;">On the welcome page there are a series of TABS at the top of the page that provide a summary of what the PREMIUM SERVICE is about and what you receive for your subscription.

<strong>THE 2015 SUBSCRIPTION BREAKDOWN IS AS FOLLOWS: -
(Please note these will be increased with effect from April 1st 2015)</strong></p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>10 weeks - $200.00</strong>
<strong>20 weeks - $350.00</strong>
<strong>40 weeks - $500.00</strong></p>
<span style="text-decoration: underline;">3.2.2. PREMIUM SERVICE – UPDATE ON CHANGES DUE BY APRIL 2015</span>

I mentioned last week, that I am looking at making some changes to my Forex business.

These changes will soon be seen on my website, in the structures and formats of my various blogs.

Over the next 4-6 weeks most of these changes will be completed, the only areas that are causing a few headaches at the moment are those issues relating to space, which are beyond my pay scale and a whole new world to become involved with. Some changes are easier than others to make, and, can be pretty instant to do, while others, in particular, my space issues require more thought and planning. The progress review meetings are still taking place and I am happy so far, although the bigger decisions are still to be made.

However, there are subtle changes made to the blog content this week. These are specifically aimed at my PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers, in section 4.

Basically, as we know, the closing weekly candles are heavily scrutinised by the major banks in the way that they assess their future FX strategy. This is not just for the coming week but also looking at a run of weekly candles can provide some strong trending data. From this blog onwards, I believe that it would be a good discipline to review these charts each week. I am proposing only the USD majors at this stage. These charts now form part of section 4.7.

Moving forward this blog will remain, but I can confirm that the section exclusively for PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers will expand. This is only fair when you consider that my subscribers are paying for a service of TRADE SET-UPS plus the bonus of some MARKET ANALYSIS.

Subscription changes will take place from April 1<sup>st</sup> and I am hoping to be able to show more flexibility in subscription periods but this is to a large extent outside of my control as it is in the hands of PayPal.

My process moving forward with the proposed changes involves: -
<ul>
	<li>COMMUNICATION and REPORTING OPTIONS</li>
	<li>WEBSITE OPTIONS and CAPABILITIES</li>
	<li>PRICE and TIERED SUBSCRIPTIONS</li>
	<li>TRAINING and MENTORING</li>
	<li>PARTNERSHIP PROGRAMS and INITIATIVES</li>
</ul>
For existing subscribers there will be a questionnaire released as soon as the research is completed to obtain your views.

From a timing perspective, changes should start to appear I think possibly as early as April, after the first quarter has ended. Please continue to watch this space for updates.

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">3.3.1. SUMMARY OF PERFORMANCE:</span>

(Only the excel spreadsheets will now be shown in this section. References to previous, present and future trades “THE TRADING REVIEW” will now be provided solely for the benefit of PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers and has been moved into section 4.2)

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">3.3.2. – PREMIUM SERVICE PROFIT/LOSS RATIOS:

</span>

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/PROFIT-LOSS-RATIO-15032105.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-5467" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/PROFIT-LOSS-RATIO-15032105.png" alt="PROFIT LOSS RATIO 15032105" width="414" height="585" /></a>

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">3.3.3. – PREMIUM SERVICE RISK/REWARD ANALYSIS:</span>

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<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/RISK-REWARD-15032015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-5466" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/RISK-REWARD-15032015.png" alt="RISK REWARD 15032015" width="428" height="541" /></a>

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<span style="text-decoration: underline;">3.3.4. – PREMIUM SERVICE OVERALL TRADE SUMMARY MONTH &amp; YTD:</span>

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<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/PREM-SERV-PROFITS-1-15032015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-5468" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/PREM-SERV-PROFITS-1-15032015.png" alt="PREM SERV PROFITS 1 15032015" width="452" height="425" /></a>

&nbsp;

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/PREM-SERV-PROFITS2-15032015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-5469" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/PREM-SERV-PROFITS2-15032015.png" alt="PREM SERV PROFITS2 15032015" width="464" height="427" /></a>

&nbsp;
<ol start="4">
	<li><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBER EXCLUSIVE CONTENT:</span></strong></li>
</ol>
(Section 4 is exclusive PREMIUM SERVICE content only available to PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers)

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">4.1 EDUCATION:
</span>(The full list of all items and more from this section can be found in the PREMIUM SERVICE website in the Trade Essential area under the EDUCATION tab.)

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">4.2. THE PREMIUM SERVICE – LAST WEEK’S TRADING REVIEW</span><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"> </span></strong>

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">4.3 THE PREMIUM SERVICE - EXISTING LIVE TRADES:</span>

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">4.4 THE PREMIUM SERVICE – EXISTING LIMIT ORDERS:</span>

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">4.5 POTENTIAL TRADES - WHAT CHARTS AM I LOOKING AT?</span>

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">4.6 MAJOR TRADING PAIRS WITH LONGER-TERM TRENDS MATCHING:</span>

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">4.7 THE KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS</span><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">:
</span></strong>(This content is now for PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers only, it allows me to refer to existing and future set-ups that form part of the PREMIUM SERVICE subscription. it also now includes chart analysis based on the weekly candlestick charts.)

<strong> </strong>
<ol start="5">
	<li><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"> THE WEEK AHEAD: -
WHAT AM I THINKING &amp; WHAT AM I LOOKING AT?</span></strong></li>
</ol>
<span style="text-decoration: underline;">5.1 MAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:</span>

SUNDAY: N/A.

MONDAY: N/A.

TUESDAY: N/A.

WEDNESDAY: GBP – Employment Data.
WEDNESDAY: GBP – The Annual Budget.
WEDNESDAY: USD – FOMC Statement, Projections &amp; Press Conference.
WEDNESDAY: NZD – GDP.

THURSDAY: CHF – SNB Policy Statement &amp; Press Conference.

FRIDAY: CAD – Core CPi and Core Retail Sales.

&nbsp;

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">5.2 FINAL THOUGHTS / CLOSING COMMENTS:</span>

This week is all about two items of news in my opinion.

The FOMC Monetary Policy Statement, with revised economic projections with Janet Yellen’s Press Conference.

and

The SNB Libor rate announcement and the monetary policy statement, with Governor Mr. Jordan’s Press Conference.

There are other snippets of news but these two dominate in my opinion.

Certainly ahead of the FOMC, I will be lighter than light on LIVE trades. At the time of writing this blog, my thought process is just to have the existing hedged trades open, they are primarily FUNDAMENTAL TRADES.

It is without doubt a pivotal week.

We will have opportunities to make $$$, we just have to be alert and careful.

As always, there will be trades to trade and there will be some great opportunities, please trade in line with your RISK MANAGEMENT parameters from your TRADING PLAN. If you do not have a TRADE PLAN, in my opinion, you should, as this will help you with consistency.
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>Consistency = longevity in trading and that is a critical goal.
IT IS THE KEY MEASUREMENT</strong></p>
Before you enter a trade work out the risk, price it in $$$. Place your stop accordingly. PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers have a full library of information on RISK MANAGEMENT, RISK TOLERANCES and POSITION SIZING etc. available for reference 24x7.

Take care.

Scott Pickering
The Pip Accumulator
Sunday March 15th 2015

EMAIL / FOLLOW ME AT:
drivethru@weeklyfxdrivethru.com
Twitter: @pipaccumulator
Google+/scottpickering
Tumblr: thepipaccumulator

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<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">DISCLAIMER &amp; OTHER DATA:</span></strong>

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">SUBSCRIBING TO THE “FREE VERSION” OF THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU:</span>

If you like what you have almost completed reading and want to have THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU delivered direct to your email inbox next week, here is what you do: -

Go to my website: - <a href="http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>

On the right hand side of the welcome page under my bio “about me” there is a blue box titled SUBSCRIBE TO FREE NEWSLETTER, click on profile and add your email address. It is as simple and straightforward as that.

I do NOT sell your email data to anyone…do not worry...one less thing to worry about!

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">THIRD PARTY COMPANIES WITH BANNERS ON MY WEBSITE:</span>

There are a small number of companies with banners on my website. In the interests of full disclosure I have a reciprocal business arrangement with these companies to promote their products.

Unlike many of my competitors, I use the products and services provided by these companies. I will NOT allow any third party on my website unless I am 100% happy that they can back up their promise.

By virtue of the fact, I work with these companies almost daily. I am more than confident to have them advertise on my website.

Any reader who buys products or services from any advertiser via a banner on my website, <a href="http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> will automatically have my help and assistance with any issues that they may have with my partnered advertisers.

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">TRADING &amp; PERFORMANCES DISCLAIMER:</span>

FLASH, RADAR and FUNDAMENTAL trade set-ups, “Tweets” and “Trade ideas” that are posted in my blogs or on Twitter are trades and set-ups that interest me. They are provided for training and informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as an offer, solicitation or recommendation of any specific security or investment strategy. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading Forex carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade any such leveraged products you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin, and seek advice from an independent financial adviser if you have any doubts.