(1919,1,'2013-08-17 10:08:40','2013-08-17 15:08:40','&nbsp;\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">1. INTRODUCTION:</span></b>\n\nI wrote several weeks ago saying that I think maybe I will take a break from trading until after the summer holidays. I didn’t do that because our friend BEN got things moving and shaking in the markets with increasing the mutterings and mumblings of the dreaded “Tapering”. In fact, since BEN broke the word to the markets it has become the one word that is a must be “in” any sentence that you are using to discuss the markets.\n\nI stayed in playing the market long and short, when in reality, I should have stuck to my guns and sidelined myself for a well earned break.  I have been taking small losses all over the map, when prior to the \"BEN effect\" I was enjoying a great run……what a fecking dipstick!!\n\nI have one longer term trade that I am in and have been all week, quite why beggars belief, but I must have picked the one currency that seems to have static within its trading range and it too appears lethargic and unable to get a move on, it must be waiting for the middle of September. I am referring to the USD/CAD and I will write about this trade later.\n\nBig news items this week, obviously if one lived in Germany and France one would have been deafened on Wednesday morning with the sounds of millions of champagne corks popping as the two countries responsible for bringing misery on millions of people in the Eurozone stood side by side and celebrated. I think the reason for the celebration was “Germany, France haul euro zone out of recession.”\n\nYou could almost hear Hollande mutter under his breath to Merkel…\n\nHollande, “You get your elections out of the way darling in September, and then together we will drive forward to greatness together arm in arm”\n\n“What about the Greeks, The Spanish, The Portuguese, The Italians, The Irish, The Cypriots, The Slovenians etc. etc.…said Angela”\n\nHollande,“F**k ‘em…. we’re alright, and we saved our banks by f**king those idiots on the Mediterranean. All they are interested in is sunshine and cheap booze. The workers are up north with us…F**k them in the South. If they don’t like, it will cost them millions of Euros to leave and we will make even more money off them if they go, the plan worked perfectly”\n\nI just cannot see Ireland, Greece, Spain, Portugal, Italy, Cyprus or Slovenia enter celebratory mode for quite some time. There are years and years of austerity ahead and the joyousness expressed by Hollande and Merkel at the Elyse Palace should only be viewed as electioneering for both parties but it was totally insensitive for the rest of Europe deep in austerity programmes.\n\nThe Fx markets for the week were mainly just drifting and at times moves were exaggerated creating little pockets of volatility. We are trading “Thin” so it is sensible to pull away and stay in cash. If you get caught the wrong side of a trade and you have chanced a larger position than maybe you should have placed, you will run the risk of depleting your broker balance for not the best of reasons. Take a three/four week holiday and re-charge the batteries,<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b>\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">2. THE EUROZONE RECESSION IS OVER…ALL IN THE GARDEN IS NOW ROSY…YEAH RIGHT!</span></b>\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b>I really hate myself sometimes for repeating items or comments in this blog, and then other times I think maybe this time when I write the same thing I will position the emphasis in a different place.\n\nWith regards to title of this section <b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">“BULLS**T”</span></b>\n\nWhat a load of bollo**s, technically the German and French economic data may show the Eurozone exiting it’s 1½ year recession, but oh my God talk about a two or three tier system. The rich get richer, the countries in the middle struggle and the remaining countries who played ball like good citizens are now fu**ed.  The two tier policy approach has shown 100% crystal clear that the policies put forth politically and those provided by the ECB, which, is just a puppet of Berlin support those with the money.\n\nSo what next?\n\nWill we see Italy, Greece, Spain and Portugal follow suit in the short term? I think not, they will be bouncing off the bottom for the foreseeable future, from time to time; we may see a positive quarter and then a drop back. All of these countries are seriously deep in the s**t.\n\nThe exception, in my opinion is Italy. Italy’s issues are mainly political; it is hard to get past the shenanigans of the Sex God aka Berlusconi when talking about Italy. Certainly, the economy has the ability to turn around if the politicians were focused. However, as with most Eurozone countries the country is led by a “week-willed lily livered” set of numpties that couldn’t blow their way out of a paper bag.\n\nFor the rest, Spain and Greece in particular, the problems facing these countries will take a serious amount of time and huge amounts of money to fix…they have neither.\n\nThe Spanish housing market and bad and doubtful debts registered with domestic mortgage lenders underestimates the underlying problems that have been there for over 4 years. The Spanish regional debt is in a dire state. I used to live in Marbella, Costa del Sol in Andalusia. I am being told from a reliable source that of the 100% town hall tax bills being issued, the capital collection in 2012 was less than 40%. If this is reflected nationwide Spain is broke!!!\n\nGreece is still not with the programme, and the word on the street is another bailout will be required after the elections in Germany. If Merkel is not re-elected God knows what ‘s going to happen. The likes of the IMF co-holding the Greek chequebook may be holding up spending. But the roots of all the issues in Greece are so deep it will take a huge amount of time to get the country moving forward. Just sorting out the speed that new businesses can set up and attempt to add to the countries GDP is such a long drawn out procedure. The countries infrastructure is set up to make things fail rather than succeed.\n\nI will re-iterate what I have said for the past twelve months or so…. The Eurozone is down the crapper. We will see shoots of hope…. but these shoots will be from the obvious places where we should see hope. The core is no better off today than it was 2/3 years ago. I reckon if you ask the various populations they would say worse off not better.\n\nThe positives in GDP from Northern Members only serve to mask the desperate position faced by members in the south.\n\nThe hurrah times felt in the markets last week will be very short lived. Members in the south require serious aid to help them see growth, otherwise unemployment lines will not get smaller and social welfare will get less and less and mortgage arrears will just grow.\n\nIs there a trade?\n\nI do believe that there is a trade but right now it is tangled up in the JPY and Tapering talk that seem to be controlling the markets.\n\nEventually, I see the need for interest rates in the Eurozone to be cut in conjunction with a growth aid package aimed at reducing unemployment lines through tax codes or by corporation tax reductions. Whether Mario Draghi will be given the go ahead from Berlin to do this is debatable but the cost of not doing it are probably not that far away from the costs to do it.\n\nMy trade will eventually be EUR/USD short. But it will take sometime, for now it’s chop, chop, and chop like the rest of the market.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">3. LONG TERM TRADES:</span></b>\n\nI entered the USD/CAD long about 5 days ago. Only a small trade. The reason I picked this trade was it falling to support at 1.0340. Of all the currency pairs in the market this one was not moving particularly far in either direction and was immune to the JPY/Tapering discussion in the most part. I am holding, my parameters are set and it is well within my trading plan.\n\n&nbsp;\n<p align=\"center\"><b>USD/CAD:\nENTRY (Cost Average): 1.0352\nTRADE: Long\n</b><b>POSITION SIZE: 20%\n</b><b>STOP LOSS: 1.0240\n</b><b>LIMIT (Take Profit): 1.075\n</b><b>CLOSING PRICE: 1.0335\n</b><b>PRESENT POSITION: -17 pips</b><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b></p>\n&nbsp;\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">4. LOOKING FORWARD…THE KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS:</span></b>\n\n<b>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3328. </b>After a week of chop and more chop, not much of a change in the closing price this week over last week.  We are in the summer and we are in ranges that never seem to get broken. To the upside 1.3420 looms and a confirmed break above this level and 1.3700 beckons. On the support side we really need to see below 1.3200 to get things moving towards 1.3000. I think it will take a major news item to get a directional move in operation, for now and the next weeks its just chop chop.\n\n<b>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.5621. </b>The one currency pair that has been motoring to the upside is the GBP/USD. Improving economic data has been very supportive of this move and it all stems back to Carney’s first economic report. How high can this pair go? 1.5670 is the next stopping point before 1.5750 and if we break through there you have to think that 1.6000 is calling. Support is good at 1.5500.\n\n<b>AUD/USD: Closing Price 0.9182. </b>This pair is consolidating before moving lower once again. You have to remember, this pair dropped from 1.0600 to 0.9000 very, very fast. There were huge oversold conditions and they needed to work through and it was totally expected that there would be a bit of a pullback. We have pulled back about 300 pips, which is normal, not excessive. So when do we roll over again? That is easy as soon as the equity markets start to fall away so will the AUD/USD. For now I am looking at the following levels 0.9075 as support and 0.9250 as resistance.\n\n<b>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8096</b>. I tried this pair several times to the short side over the past two weeks or so and failed nearly every time. It has been very, very frustrating. I think we need to see Gold drop, the USD index rise and equities drop for this pair to finally head lower. I will not be joining in unless the above conditions are in play. My levels for the initial period ahead are support 0.8050 and resistance 0.8110 and then 0.8170.\n\n<b>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.0335.  </b>I am in this pair with a very small long trade. Not at all worried 1.0240 is my area to get out. With all the moves up and down in the recent chop fests this pair has not been affected too much and has virtually stood it’s ground. I do believe long term the USD will strengthen and commodity currencies will come under pressure so I am happy to hold. Up side resistance is 1.0370.\n\n<b>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.9260.  </b>I had a very small long trade with this pair early in the week and exited it in error in a good profitable position…. divvy!!  I am looking at the range here from 0.9180 to 0.9350.\n\n<b>USD/JPY: Closing Price 97.52.  </b>The JPY chop continues. If I am correct in my beliefs from a couple of weeks ago that equities are going to sell off, I do still see the S&amp;P relationship remaining intact and all the JPY pairs will come under pressure. For now we chop chop. The levels that interest me are 96.50 to 98.50.\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span>\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">5. MAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:</span></b>\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b>MONDAY: AUD – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes\n\nWEDNESDAY: USD – FOMC\nWEDNESDAY: CNY – HSBC Flash PMi Manufacturing\n\nTHURSDAY: EUR – Flash PMi Germany and France\n\nFRIDAY: CAD – Core CPi\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">6. FINAL THOUGHTS:</span></b>\n\nBe careful in the chop fest. There is some news but not a lot of major news this week. The FED meets and I suppose \"TaperTalk\" will be at fever pitch but there is so much hot air expelled about this I do not know what to believe anymore. Unless it\'s BEN at the microphone be careful. It could be just one of his underlings just trying to make a name for themselves, with their 30 seconds of fame.\n\nI am going to try to stay in cash until early September when normality steps back into the marketplace.\n\nI am holding my long USD/CAD position but intend not to add anymore until we are out of the summer thin trading environment.\n\nAs always trade within your account limitations and use your trade plan effectively.\n\nGood luck and take care.\n\nScott Pickering\nThe Pip Accumulator\nSaturday August 17th 2013\n\nFOLLOW ME AT:\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\nStockTwits: www.stocktwits.com/thepipaccumulator\n\n&nbsp;\n\n&nbsp;','THE EUROZONE RECESSION IS OVER...ALL IN THE GARDEN IS NOW ROSY...YEAH RIGHT!','','publish','open','closed','','the-eurozone-recession-is-over-all-in-the-garden-is-now-rosy-yeah-right','','','2013-08-17 10:08:40','2013-08-17 15:08:40','',0,'http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/?p=1919',0,'post','',0),(1931,1,'2013-08-24 13:50:13','2013-08-24 18:50:13','<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">1. INTRODUCTION:</span></b>\n\nAs I had blogged and tweeted in the past week I have pretty much been sidelined in cash as the summer low volume chop fest was really getting to me and affecting my trading decisions. I was, getting suckered into trades and then getting caught on the wrong side taking losses. I was thankfully trading in small lot sizes, but, I was really hard on myself as I knew that this was going to happen and still I carried on regardless\n\nI have been pretty silent on Twitter, as I have just been a market voyeur….so to speak. The following two news items caught my attention: -\n\nThe “Tapering” debate, which, I find pretty pointless, on the basis that a $10 -$15million reduction in a month is not really going to create a shakedown, came once again to the forefront with the release of the FED minutes last Wednesday. In my opinion this is really like a bunch of school kids throwing a tantrum. It is totally pathetic, and quite tedious to follow and listen to overpaid underworked analysts complain about their job. They charge enough in commissions, suck it up and bloody get on with it...boring, boring, boring. On Wednesday at 2.00pm the markets acted confused and reactive and basically went up and down in crazy-like fashion giving a true visual definition of what constitutes a true chop fest. It was a bit of a farce, TV pundits were at sea and to quote one of my boyhood favourite TV programmes, Fawlty Towers. “I have seen better organized chickens running around a farmyard with their heads chopped off”. Soooooooooooo true. The FOMC release added nothing new to the debate and still today at the time of writing, the debate goes on, or rather mutters on.\n\nChinese PMi data was released by HSBC on Tuesday night and this now shows that China is back producing once again and is above the key mid point reading that defines growth versus slowdown. My question is; given this news and the fact consumer spending data is very, very mixed…who, is China producing for, what are they gearing up production for, because very few areas of the world are spending money! Absolutely bizarre, can you trust this data?\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">2. SIX (6) LONGER TERM TRADES THAT ARE ON MY RADAR:</span></b>\n\nUsually, in this section of the blog, I write a short piece about what is bugging me, or, what is getting on my nerves, or, what I find fascinating in the Fx market currently. I usually take the opportunity to express my fundamental views.\n\nThis week for reasons that will become obvious at the end of the blog, I thought that I would document five trades that I am looking at, and have been on my radar for some time.\n\nThree of the six I have entered and there are two where I am waiting for my entry level to be reached. These are in the main, but, not all, exotic pairs that you need to place very wide stops on to accommodate the huge swings.\n\nAll of these trades can be very small positions. Set stops that you can afford from your trading plan and then let them run. Move your stops to break even when sufficient profits are achieved and then watch them…hopefully return a good profit. Nothing is guaranteed but these trades offer a great opportunity to make money, in my opinion.\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>1. AUD/NZD:</strong></span>\n\nI took a long trade earlier in the week (I did not tweet it).\n\nENTRY (Cost Average): 1.1463\nSTOP LOSS: 1.1350\nLIMIT (Target): 1.1949\n\nFrom the chart below, you can see that a massive unwind is in play. The key level to break on the long side was 1.1500. This reversal could travel a very long way. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the last big move lower comes in around 1.2150-1.2200.\n\nFrom 1.1500 to 1.2200 is 700 pips. If this pair gets traction I really believe this is a great opportunity.\n\n<a href=\"http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/AUDNZD-MONTHLY-CHART-BREAK-OUT-24082013.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1934\" alt=\"AUDNZD MONTHLY CHART BREAK-OUT 24082013\" src=\"http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/AUDNZD-MONTHLY-CHART-BREAK-OUT-24082013-1024x516.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"516\" /></a>\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>2. GBP/CAD:</strong></span>\n\nI entered this trade yesterday morning on the back of excellent UK economic GDP data. It is swinging around but it is in breakout territory in my opinion as long as it stays above 1.6425.\n\nENTRY (Cost Average): 1.6484\nSTOP LOSS: 1.6350\nLIMIT (Target) 1.8100\n\nFrom the chart below the opportunity is insane on the unwinding opportunity. There are about 1,600 pips available up to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. It may NOT stop there!!\n\n<a href=\"http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/GBPCAD-MONTHLY-CHART-BREAKOUT-24082013.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1935\" alt=\"GBPCAD MONTHLY CHART BREAKOUT 24082013\" src=\"http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/GBPCAD-MONTHLY-CHART-BREAKOUT-24082013-1024x516.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"516\" /></a>\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>3. GBP/NZD:</strong></span>\n\nI entered this trade at the same time as the GBP/CAD yesterday morning.\n\nENTRY (Cost Average): 1.9987\nSTOP LOSS: 1.9850\nLIMIT (Target): 2.2450\n\nThis trade offers the greatest opportunity if it plays!!\n\nOn the chart below, although I am extremely limited with my drawing tools, I have attempted to draw a “Cup and Handle” formation. From the depth of the cup to the rim of the cup is about 2,500 pips. It comes into play on a move above 2.0000 and the target is 2.2500.\n\n<a href=\"http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/GBPNZD-WEEKLY-CUP-HANDLE-24082013.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1936\" alt=\"GBPNZD WEEKLY CUP &amp; HANDLE 24082013\" src=\"http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/GBPNZD-WEEKLY-CUP-HANDLE-24082013-1024x516.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"516\" /></a>\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>4. USD/JPY:</strong></span>\n\nI wrote a few weeks back about my thoughts on the USD/JPY heading much lower. Tapering has caused more uncertainty in the U.S. markets beyond what I believed possible, and, as a result the USD has regained control over the JPY. Bond yields, to which all the JPY pairs across the board are so sensitive to have rallied over 120 basis points. The USD/JPY being the leader is the most affected and it pulls the other cross pairs with it.\n\nMy target entry with this pair is to go long at 99.50. Looking for a move back to the highs around 104.00.\n\nFrom the chart below, you can see the squeeze opportunity if we break through the crossed trend lines. 99.20 marks the approximate spot, I want to see a full confirmation first.\n\n<a href=\"http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/USDJPY-WEEKLY-CHART-24082013.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1939\" alt=\"USDJPY WEEKLY CHART 24082013\" src=\"http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/USDJPY-WEEKLY-CHART-24082013-1024x516.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"516\" /></a>\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>5. USD/CAD:</strong></span>\n\nI was in this trade last week and was spooked just before the FOMC on Wednesday and I pulled my profits off the table. I would have been sitting very, very pretty had I left matters alone!! Isn’t hindsight a wonderful thing?\n\nI entered long on a pullback to 1.0500, targeting about 1.0850 should we break through 1.0610.\n\nThe chart below was to highlight my preferred entry level, which thankfully I was able to achieve. Maybe there is a God looking down on me!.\n\n<a href=\"http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/USDCAD-WEEKLY-CHART-24082013.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1938\" alt=\"USDCAD WEEKLY CHART 24082013\" src=\"http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/USDCAD-WEEKLY-CHART-24082013-1024x516.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"516\" /></a>\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>6. NZD/USD:</strong></span>\n\nWow, during the week there was a huge 250+ pip daily move lower in this pair.\n\nLike the USD/JPY I am looking to enter on a pullback. I set my sights on 0.8050, but yesterday we broke down through 0.8000. Right now I am assessing the levels but I think I have to wait for a pullback. I will not chase lower, that is crazy and it does not fit in the trade plan that I have for my business.\n\nThe chart below highlights the levels that I am looking at. RBNZ governor Wheeler has set the ball rolling in the Kiwi dollar to the down side stating that it is too over-valued. My target level is 0.7360 the 38% Fibonacci retracement of the big move. The doomsday scenario target is between 0.6550 and 0.6430 the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement…yes that is not a typo but it is maybe too far (1,500 pips or so from where we are presently).\n\n<a href=\"http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/NZDUSD-MONTHLY-CHART-24082013.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1937\" alt=\"NZDUSD MONTHLY CHART 24082013\" src=\"http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/NZDUSD-MONTHLY-CHART-24082013-1024x516.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"516\" /></a>\n\n&nbsp;\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">3. LONG TERM TRADES:</span></b>\n\nI am in four longer-term trades at the moment.\n\nMy comments relating to the three trades are posted in the blog section above.\n\n&nbsp;\n<p align=\"center\"><b>AUD/NZD:\nEntry (Cost Average): 1.1463\nPosition Size: 40%\nClosing Price: 1.1544\nStop Loss: 1.1350\nLimit (Profit Target): 1.1949\nProfit/Loss:  +81 pips</b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b> </b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>GBP/CAD:\nEntry (Cost Average): 1.6484\nPosition Size: 20%\nClosing Price: 1.6336\nStop Loss: 1.6275\nLimit (Profit Target): 1.8100\nProfit/Loss:  -148 pips</b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b> </b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>GBP/NZD:\nEntry (Cost Average): 1.9987\nPosition Size: 20%\nClosing Price: 1.9918\nStop Loss: 1.9850\nLimit (Profit Target): 2.2450\nProfit/Loss:  -69 pips</b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><strong>USD/CAD:</strong>\n<strong>Entry Cost:  1.0499</strong>\n<strong>Position Size: 40%</strong>\n<strong>Closing Price: 1.0494</strong>\n<strong>Stop Loss: 1.0440</strong>\n<strong>Limit (Take Profit): 1.0850</strong>\n<strong>Profit/Loss: -5 pips</strong></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b> </b></p>\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">4. LOOKING FORWARD…THE KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS:</span></b>\n\n<b>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3379.  </b>The EUR/USD is in a trading range and even with the release of FED minutes earlier in the week it has neither broken out to the upside or downside. We are trapped between 1.3300 and 1.3420. Personally, I wouldn\'t touch this pair with a barge pole until we get a clear direction on a breakout.\n\n<b>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.5564. </b>This pair really screwed up my GBP/CAD and GBP/NZD yesterday. We got great GDP data and then a pullback...bloody cable!! I felt soooooo confident that we were on our way to 1,5750 and then 1.6000. It just shows you..never underestimate the Fx market. We now sit in a range 1.5530 to 1.5640. Wait until we break free before placing trades would be my suggestion.\n\n<b></b><b>AUD/USD: Closing Price 0.9021. </b>I am really fearful of a squeeze with this pair so I am unusually NOT shorting. It is my favourite pair to short. I think though that we are capped at 0.9050. We are well supported at 0.8970 and then 0.8940.\n\n<b>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.7800</b>. I am ready to go short, I just want a pullback to 0.7850.  I thought that I was going to get this yesterday but alas not. I have my order in with my broker at this level, I will have to wait and see. I think that we are really in a big range now of 0.7700 to 0.7850. I hate chasing lower...big decisions ahead.\n\n<b>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.0494. </b>I never thought that when I sat in front of my computer yesterday morning that I would be in a position to enter long at 1.0500. It just shows you. Here I am long from about 4.30pm Friday. Support is huge at 1.0440 and I see 1.0610 as a key level to break if we are going much higher.\n\n<b>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.9207.  </b>This pair could be set to drop much lower. I had at the back of my mind that it would hold at 0.9220. That level gave way and the pair is acting a bit Yen-ish from time to time. If 0.9140 gives away we are on for 0.9000. Upside resistance is lying at 0.9290.\n\n<b>USD/JPY: Closing Price 98.67. </b>This pair I feel could go either way. I am not 100% certain whilst it plays the ranges. Once it breaks out, that is a different matter completely. 98.30 to 99.50 is the range that I am monitoring.\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b>\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">5. MAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:</span></b>\n\nSUNDAY: NZD – Trade Balance.\n\nMONDAY: N/A\n\nTUESDAY: N/A\n\nWEDNESDAY: GBP – BOE Carney on the wires!\nWEDNESDAY: AUD – PCE figures.\n\nTHURSDAY: USD – Preliminary GDP.\n\nFRIDAY: CAD - GDP\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">6. FINAL THOUGHTS:\n</span></b>\n\n<b></b>From my perspective it all looks a little light for me on news events this coming week. This does not mean let the guard down. Thin trading sessions will still be the order of the day, so, trading with caution is recommended. Do not over-stretch your account and keep inside your trading plan limits.\n\nI am away on a short vacation for two weekends, hence why I wanted to break with the normal style blog by placing in the “Drive-Thru” the trades that interest me from a longer-term perspective.\n\nSee you next on September 14<sup>th</sup> 2013.\n\nGood luck and take care.\n\n&nbsp;\n\nScott Pickering\nThe Pip Accumulator\nSaturday August 24th 2013\n\n&nbsp;\n\nFOLLOW ME AT:\n\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\nStockTwits: www.stocktwits.com/thepipaccumulator\n\n&nbsp;\n\n&nbsp;','SIX LONGER-TERM TRADES THAT ARE ON MY RADAR','','publish','open','closed','','six-longer-term-trades-that-are-on-my-radar','','','2013-08-24 13:50:13','2013-08-24 18:50:13','',0,'http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/?p=1931',0,'post','',0),(1911,1,'2013-08-10 14:01:56','2013-08-10 19:01:56','<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">1. INTRODUCTION:</span></b>\n\nI wanted to open the blog this week by re-iterating “the words of caution” that I mentioned at the end of last weeks blog. Yes, the AUD did catch a bid and squeeze.\n\n<i>“There are lots of news items this week - that means lots of opportunities. </i><i>I want to single out the AUD. If you trade the AUD there are lots of market moving news events that could yield huge profit opportunities. Be careful though as I am conscious that the AUD/USD could catch a bid if there is positive news and we could see a squeeze”</i>\n\nMoving on.\n\nPersonally I have found it tough going trading this past week. Not that I have had multiple trades going just that it has been slow moving at times and then ultra volatile and I have been caught on the wrong side of the market on a couple of occasions…painful. When I balance out the week I am below breakeven so I am obviously disappointed at losing a little money, but more I am annoyed with myself as I know full well what this type of slow market in the summer can do.\n\nLooking back at the news over the past few days, there is a major announcement to make: -\n\n“<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">ALL</span></b> in the world is now good get over yourself”\n\nThe financial data from the UK, USA, the Eurozone and China is improving and to all those living with austerity, lower wages as a result of government austerity plans, no jobs, the prospect of working until you are 85 to pay for austerity and cover your retirement because your pension fund has been depleted and/or benefits severely reduced….should …as the Eagles once sang “Get over it”.\n\nWhat a load of crap. We are bouncing on or off the bottom. Economies do not just turn. The best signs in my eyes to show that the feel good factor is returning, is an improving housing market, an improving labour market with the jobless queues/lines reducing and a definite increase in consumer spending month on month for at least three months.\n<ul>\n	<li>The UK is showing improvements in housing, but I am not yet convinced on housing and unemployment.</li>\n	<li>The Eurozone is just a disaster. It is split in two and the poor side is still suffering. One size fits all does NOT work and although there are signs of improvement in certain countries housing and unemployment are pitiful.</li>\n	<li>The U.S. - the last Non Farm Payroll numbers were poor, housing and consumer spending still weak.</li>\n	<li>China still has house price issues and frankly I take most Chinese data with a pinch of salt. If consumers around the world aren’t spending, how on this planet can Chinese numbers be so good?</li>\n</ul>\nAs usual, TV commentators, in particular, CNBC and their guest financial analysts are way ahead of themselves, remember broadcasting good news whether accurate or not sells advertising space.\n\nI am certainly not getting directional for a while yet. I still think that Japan (Abe and Kuroda) and Bernake will have the last words on the matter. As always, I believe the FED will have the last laugh so to speak, and, with the Yen and Nikkei 225 in such a volatile mood do not rule out intervention of a more direct nature by the BOJ to weaken the Yen.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">2. MOVE OVER KING DOLLAR….IT’S KING YEN NOW!</span></b>\n\nIn the past week as a trader you must have noticed that usual correlations in the market have gone a little astray. One example of this is the way at times the EUR/USD and USD/CAD have been moving in tandem rather than opposite.\n\nThe big factor that has come into being though is that the EUR/USD and USD/JPY have been acting the same as the EUR/USD and the USD/CHF. The inverse relationship of the CHF is now the same with the JPY with the USD. Yen volatility has been in full swing this past week as soon as the Nikkei 225 sells off so does the USD/JPY and vice-versa should the Nikkei 225 move upwards. Basically, the Fx market has been in yawn mode for a while, the only rush periods have been around news items from the RBA, China data releases and the biggest one of the week was Carney’s first major press outing as BOE Governor. In his inflation report, which, was more upbeat than predicted the GBP/USD rallied about 300 pips in short order.\n\nApart from the above, all the movements in the market recently have been initiated by the USD/JPY it has been responsible for pulling the USD one way or the other.\n\nWhy?\n\nMy theory is that, we are in the summer and it’s generally a boring and range-bound period anyway, but, in addition, one of the biggest potential market moving events is in the pipeline and because no one knows what and how it will affect both the equity and forex markets I believe this had added to the range bound position we find ourselves dealing with. I am of course referring to “Tapering”.\n\nThe fact that the Yen / Nikkei 225 has been like a yo-yo it has kept the EUR/USD somewhat in check, and, if this pair does not move the markets are understandably quiet.\n\nThe commodity currencies have been flexing a little, but to me it’s more a case that these extensions may be seen to be false breakouts. I was being extremely cautious with my AUD/USD, NZD/USD and USD/CAD trades and I was out of the money last week. We have to be really careful\n\nSo what about forex trading: -\n\nI see no difference in the way the Fx market will operate for the next couple of weeks so take note. I am of the opinion that the JPY is about to head a lot lower as well. My blog dated 25<sup>th</sup> July refers in detail to this point. If this happens, given the fact that there is now a pretty convincing inverted relationship in play, the EUR/USD could break higher. If it breaks above 1.3415, there will be a squeeze higher, this will get the markets moving.\n\nThe political pressure on Abe in Japan is massive and the uncertainty is being reflected in the Nikkei 225, which is, in turn, putting pressure on the USD/JPY and the other Yen crosses. Keeping with my policy of dealing with the major pairs if the Nikkei 225 implodes the USD/JPY is capable of falling to 94.00-94.50 in my opinion fairly quickly and personally I will be looking at these levels as an opportunity to buy and go long.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<b></b><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">3. LONG TERM TRADES:</span></b>\n\nI have no longer-term trades in play at the moment. I am looking to set up longer-term trades but I need to see a true directional market first for me to be convinced.\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b>\n\n<b></b><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">4. LOOKING FORWARD…THE KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS:</span></b>\n\n<b>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3339. </b>This pair seems to have been in a trading range of 1.3300 to 1.3415 for quite some time. We closed the week yesterday below a key trend line of 1.3350 and whilst technically this could be viewed as EUR negative, I am not so certain. The USD/JPY will decide as long as trading volumes remain thin. Therefore, we need to see a break of the range aforementioned to get a direction.\n\n<b>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.5497. </b> After Carney’s debut Inflation Report last week this pair has rallied and not really pulled back. This pair was held back by the following: key trend line resistance, the 200 day moving average and 61.8% fib. All of these came into play around 1.5550. Looking forward, this pair needs to fall below 1.5400 before it gets bearish and if it breaks 1.5550, it will be going a lot higher.<b> </b>\n\n<b>AUD/USD: Closing Price 0.9199. </b>This pair has pulled off its lows in style this past week moving about 300 pips in total. We ended the week on a key resistance level of 0.9200. It proved difficult to pass through yesterday and looking ahead I see the bearish trend resuming if the AUD/USD breaks below 0.9100 and it will squeeze should it break 0.9250<b>.</b>\n\n<b>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8035</b>.  We ended the week just below key resistance of 0.8050. Support is big and should it break below through 0.7990 a bearish tone will reappear\n\n<b>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.0285. </b>After pretty poor Employment statistics yesterday morning, this pair rallied off 1.0290 to 1.0345 or so only to give it all back before lunch. 1.0240 to 1.0350 is the range that interests me with this pair.\n\n<b>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.9217. </b>Boring, boring, boring. I have found this pair to be a little boring. It is still inverse of the EUR/USD but it seems to be reacting with the JPY and it’s moves have been a little limited. I am looking at a trading range of 0.9150 to 0.9280.\n\n<b>USD/JPY: Closing Price 96.22. </b>About 180 pips lower in the week. I am looking at 97.00 being stiff resistance and until this is broken any move higher will not be bullish in my opinion unless we break through 97.00. At this level I think sentiment changes to bullish. 95.50 should offer a little support on any move lower, but I do think if we break down through this level we are heading a lot lower.\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b>\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">5. MAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:</span></b>\n\nSUNDAY: JPY – GDP.\n\nTUESDAY: GBP – CPi.\nTUESDAY: EUR – ZEW Report\nTUESDAY: USD – Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales.\nTUESDAY: NZD – Retail Sales.\n\nWEDNESDAY: GBP – Unemployment Numbers and Interest Rate and Asset Puchase Facility Votes\n\nTHURSDAY: GBP – Retail Sales\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">6. FINAL THOUGHTS:</span></b>\n\nI have mentioned on several occasions in this week’s blog that the USD/JPY currency pair has been leading and controlling. Be careful watch it, follow it and be careful of wild swings, in particular in the Asian sessions trading will be thin.\n\nAs always trade within your account limitations and use your trade plan effectively.\n\nGood luck and take care.\n\n&nbsp;\n\nScott Pickering\nThe Pip Accumulator\nSaturday August 10th 2013\n\nFOLLOW ME AT:\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\nStockTwits: www.stocktwits.com/thepipaccumulator\n\n&nbsp;\n\n&nbsp;','MOVE OVER KING DOLLAR...IT\'S KING YEN FOR NOW','','publish','open','closed','','move-over-king-dollar-its-king-yen-for-now','','','2013-08-10 14:01:56','2013-08-10 19:01:56','',0,'http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/?p=1911',0,'post','',0),(1903,1,'2013-08-03 09:16:46','2013-08-03 14:16:46','<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">1. INTRODUCTION:</span></b>\n\nI got it wrong on the JPY reaction last week. I think that the JPY is going lower but I may be a week or two too soon with my thoughts. The tapering debate is screwing with my market thoughts and timings…. such is life!! When the markets start to sell off I think the USD/JPY will lead all the JPY pairs lower, but that is for another day.\n\nA great week of trading for me I hit my daily target 5 days out of 5 but I did find it mentally hard this past week. I am still basically trading the AUD/USD, NZD/USD and to a lesser extent the EUR/USD and USD/CAD.\n\nIt was a big week for news from the major central banks, the FED, ECB and BOE all on rate alerts.\n\nI enjoyed the new Draghi approach this time around at the ECB press conference….”Let me read what WE thought”….”Let me quote what WE ALL decided” this was just brilliant. This was stage one of the classic “CYA” (cover you’re a**) approach to your job preservation, as you either suspect or know that someone is gunning for you. The amount of times Draghi referred to notes for 100% accurate quotes was incredible. He pushed back to questioners quite a lot as well this month. He was much more confident than recent press conferences. This was a total non-event and a missed opportunity for him to weaken the currency to help the Mediterranean countries that are suffering at the moment.\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">2. TO TAPER OR NOT TO TAPER…IT’S ALL BULL S**T REALLY!</span></b>\n\nSo another week passes by and the summer trading sessions now enter August with the big question “To Taper or not To Taper” still hanging in the balance.\n\nI thought and tweeted during the week that the Japanese markets relationship with the Yen was a “Yo-Yo” affair…. up one day, down the next\n\nThe U.S. markets were little different towards the end of the week. There were blow out numbers twice in one day with “Taper talk” at fever pitch claiming it to be “on” for September. This followed a rather tame non-committal FOMC release earlier in the week that had many people thinking/believing that Tapering was off for September. Then yesterday, following very weak consumer and Non Farm Payroll numbers it had most pundits saying “No!” to September.\n\nHow can the FED start tapering?\n\nBoth Housing and Unemployment markets are still basically in poor shape. Without these booming or at least showing consistency to the positive and without consumer spending there is no recovery. The FED has failed.\n\nThe Fed has been too focused on supporting the greed of Wall Street and missed the opportunity. Now it appears rushed, as Ben wants to start his QE exit strategy before his tenure as FED president ends.\n\nDeep down I hope that care is taken if tapering starts. I cannot see Ben screwing up now having come this far. I believe he will do nothing at all that in anyway would spook Wall Street or damage the economy. In writing that, I realize that he is playing with $85 Billion per month and the scope for a marginal reduction is a good one, but, one has to remember that dealing with Wall Street must be frustrating even for the most patient of people. Many of the brokers, jobbers and analysts on Wall Street are new in within the past five years. They only know how to “Buy the dips” nothing else and, therefore, they do not know how to work without the support of the FED under-pinning their trading activity. To remove the safety blanket without warning and without full disclosure will have them running for restrooms crapping themselves.\n\nThe FED option may be to reduce QE by $15-20 billion for a few months at a time but who knows. This has never been done before so it’s completely new to one and all, the FED included.\n\nPersonally, I find it all (removing stimulus) to be a bit of a joke for the following basic reasons: -\n<ul>\n	<li>Unemployment is still around record highs.</li>\n	<li>The participation in the unemployment lines is reducing bringing down the overall unemployment rate. You cannot trust the numbers.</li>\n	<li>Basic consumer consumption is down therefore the government cannot rely on the population to buy goods and grow the economy.</li>\n	<li>GDP numbers are poor for the second largest economy in the world. A minimum of 3%-4% needs to be seen, not the bouncing around 1%.</li>\n	<li>Housing numbers are still sitting near the bottom. Only overseas speculators buying the longer-term problem properties have been providing some under-pinning to the statistics. There are one or two standout areas that buck the trend but overall it’s not a great picture. A buoyant housing market is required to grow the economy.</li>\n</ul>\nThese facts alone tell me that the economy in the U.S. in NOT in a good position and five years into this QE programme to even be talking about removing stimulus is crazy given the fact the economy is NOT in great shape. Without a true buoyant housing market there is no economic growth, and, feel good factor, that the general public can see and feel, that encourages consumer spending.\n\nGood PMi data does NOT mean all is well. There was a massive over-reaction in my eyes to the China PMi data this past week. That data was opposite that of the HSBC PMi data. Do you believe the Chinese data? They have a reason to manipulate their data. Eurozone PMi data last week showed 11 member countries with improving PMi figures. That sounds great and it is encouraging, but the Eurozone area economically is in the crapper. The U.S. PMi data was treated as triumphant…crazy.\n\nMy thoughts are that we now have a “New Normal” of a mix of good and bad data with zero consistency. Continuing uncertain consumer data and the de-leveraging of the past five years continues and no matter what the FED does it is not achieving its goals that it set out to achieve. All Ben is doing is continuing to feed the greed of Wall Street.\n\nHere’s a thought…Five years ago wouldn’t it have been a better option to just let the markets stand on their own. Isn’t hindsight wonderful!!\n\nBeing serious though, to have the S&amp;P and Dow Jones close yesterday at record highs, when the economy is in such poor shape is a disgrace in my opinion. The FED support of looking after Wall Street rather than Main Street has really showed through. To even talk about tapering now with such a poor economy is a disgrace. The Fed in my opinion has really missed its mark. It has failed miserably so far with it’s primary objectives of getting the U.S. back to work and getting the housing market on a positive and consistent footing.\n\nFrom a trading perspective - we have great opportunities with trading currencies. The following is now very clear: -\n<ul>\n	<li>Strong U.S. data and the USD strengthens.</li>\n	<li>Weak data and the USD weakens.</li>\n</ul>\nPlay the market accordingly until we change.\n\nOne thing I do want to write though is; the equity markets have to pull back at some time and when they do focus on the commodity currencies. Right now with equity market highs, where are the AUD/USD, NZD/USD and USD/CAD positioned?\n<ul>\n	<li>AUD/USD – you would think 1.1500, all time record highs. But it trades around 0.8900.</li>\n	<li>NZD/USD – is performing better but you would still expect it to be at all time highs and better 0.8500 – 0.9000. But it trades at 0.7800.</li>\n	<li>USD/CAD – should be around 0.9000 – 0.9250. We trade around 1.0400.</li>\n</ul>\nIf these pairs cannot hit extremes what is going to happen to them if equities sell off?\n\nThese are my focus currency pairs. Longer term I am looking for moves as follows: -\n<ul>\n	<li>AUD/USD 0.8000</li>\n	<li>NZD/USD 0.6850</li>\n	<li>USD/CAD 1.1200</li>\n</ul>\nWhilst it is fascinating from a fundamental view to look at the economics the technical chart analysis is fun, given the sizes of the opportunity.\n\nTapering will happen for the right or wrong reasons and whilst this is a discussion point, the movements in currencies is all that really interests me and I see great opportunities ahead. Be ready, it may not happen until we are well into the fall.<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b>\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">3. LONG TERM TRADES:</span></b>\n\nI have no longer-term trades in play at the moment. I am looking to set up longer-term trades but I need to see a true directional market first for me to be convinced.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">4. LOOKING FORWARD…THE KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS:</span></b>\n\n<b>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3278. </b>All week we seemed to have traded in a range from 1.3180 to 1.3350. These parameters have held through the ups and downs of the tapering debate over the past few days. We need to break out of this range to set up a directional trend. The simple fact is the EUR/USD is the most liquid of all the forex pairs and once it breaks out of this range, we will have a direction that the other pairs will follow.\n\n<b>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.5288</b>. What a move yesterday we saw with this pair. At 08:29 eastern we were around 1.5130 after the publication of the statistics it flew to 1.5270, so what is next? I am thinking that 1.5100 to 1.5350 will be the immediate range and if the upside resistance is broken with continued USD weakness you have to aware that 1.5500 offers a round number stop off point.\n\n<b>AUD/USD: Closing Price 0.8907. </b>Early in the week RBA governor Stevens weakened the AUD by publicly stating that the currency was over-valued. It fell 150 pips on his statement. We now have a weekly low of 0.8875. This is not major support, just a spike low. If we break lower through this level there is very little by way of support down to 0.8715. We may get a little stop on the way at 0.8800 but this will be a major stopping level. The upside resistance is 0.9000. We must also note that there is plenty of economic data scheduled for the AUD this week.\n\n<b>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.7838</b>. We are now in a “Head and Shoulders” formation. When we held 0.7930 after non-farm payrolls yesterday the shoulder break remained intact. The measured move lower is now towards 0.7750. The upside resistance is around 0.7950.\n\n<b>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.0390.  </b>At long last this pair is starting to move. 1.0400 is a tough resistance point to the upside; it is proving tough to crack. I do think that once this level is broken we may see a swift move towards 1.0570. Support is strong at 1.0340 then 1.0240.\n\n<b>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.9290.  </b>I have not traded this pair for quite sometime. I look at it and then ignore it. It has been range-bound then it snapped higher only to fall back into it’s range and it closed yesterday bang in the middle. The range to break out going forward is 0.9240 to 0.9340.\n\n<b>USD/JPY: Closing Price 98.94. </b>I am finding this pair difficult to trade in the immediate term. Long term I think that the all the JPY pairs are going to strengthen; this will be on the back of a fall in equities. In addition, “Abeconomics” are being called into question and this creates uncertainty, which is reflected in the yo-yo moves seen in the Nikkei 225 and the USD/JPY. Looking ahead key support lies at 98.50. Below 98.50 I am looking at 97.00. Upside resistance is 99.00 but I think the range to work with is 97.00 to 100.00. This is a huge range, but I think once we break this once and for all we will see a direction. My bias is for a break lower…time will tell.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">5. MAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:</span></b>\n\nSUNDAY: AUD – Retail Sales.\n\nMONDAY: GBP – Services PMi\nMONDAY: USD - ISM Non- Manufacturing PMi\nMONDAY: AUD – Trade Balance\n\nTUESDAY: AUD – RBA Cash Rate and Rate Statement\nTUESDAY: NZD – Unemployment Rate.\n\nWEDNESDAY: GBP – BOE Inflation report and Carney speaks.\nWEDNESDAY: CAD – Building Permits and Ivey PMi\nWEDNESDAY: AUD – Unemployment Rate.\n\nTHURSDAY: JPY – BOJ Press Conference\nTHURSDAY: AUD – RBA Monetary Policy Statement\nTHURSDAY: CNY – CPi\n\nFRIDAY: CAD – Employment Change and Unemployment Rate.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">6. FINAL THOUGHTS:</span></b>\n\nThere are lots of news items this week - that means lots of opportunities.\n\nI want to single out the AUD. If you trade the AUD there are lots of market moving news events that could yield huge profit opportunities. Be careful though as I am conscious that the AUD/USD could catch a bid if there is positive news and we could see a squeeze.\n\nAs always trade within your account limitations and use your trade plan effectively.\n\nWe are in the summer months, so trading will be thin and moves will be exaggerated. To allow for this, in particular in the Asian sessions, trade with smaller positions and wider stops.\n\nGood luck and take care.\n\nScott Pickering\nThe Pip Accumulator\nSaturday August 3<sup>rd</sup> 2013\n\nFOLLOW ME AT:\n\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\nStockTwits: www.stocktwits.com/thepipaccumulator\n\n&nbsp;\n\n&nbsp;','TO TAPER OR NOT TO TAPER...IT\'S ALL BULLS**T REALLY!','','publish','open','closed','','to-taper-or-not-to-taper-its-all-bullst-really','','','2013-08-03 09:16:46','2013-08-03 14:16:46','',0,'http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/?p=1903',0,'post','',0),(1888,1,'2013-07-27 12:08:32','2013-07-27 17:08:32','<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">1.  INTRODUCTION:</span></b>\n\nI have been back in Canada about 5/6 days following our vacation in Ireland and the UK, which allowed us to attend a good friends wedding in the scorching heat and humidity in London. We packed coats and sweaters for our trip…we were in Europe’s heatwave the entire time we were away. Moving on from the pleasantries, I want to just put on paper in a few paragraphs my current thoughts on where we are in the Fx market, what is on my mind, both at the front and deep in the back!\n<ul>\n	<li><strong>TRADING THE SUMMER MONTHS: -</strong></li>\n</ul>\nI hate this time of the year from a trading perspective. The markets tend to offer thinner liquidity and thus moves are exaggerated and with the increase (so we are told) in high frequency and algorithmic traders the individual trader is being screwed. Not sure whether I am being screwed. I am getting on a bit in age, but I still think I have the wherewithal to realize if I am f***ed or not. Joking aside, automatic systems are talked about more, and their influence is debatable but this is progress and “we” as traders have to adapt. In thin trading markets that means care. Like a lot of people I look at the summer months of mid-June through to early September as the “silly season”. The one thing that I have learned in life, never mind  from trading is that “Nothing ever stays the same”. Things change and we (you) adapt accordingly.\n\nSo if you have been pinched by the markets take a step back, take a deep breath and decide whether you trade the summer months or not. If you decide that you do, you need to trade smaller position sizes and take wider stops to allow for thin trading patterns. Remember, if it’s thin trading in Europe and North American trading sessions, the Asian session will be a complete nightmare at times. At the best of times these markets can be illiquid.\n<ul>\n	<li><strong>THE EUROZONE: -</strong></li>\n</ul>\nIt still beggars belief why the EUR/USD is pressing 1.3300, when in most people’s minds, mine included we should be more like 1.2000 or below.\n\nMy thoughts on this question are that it’s down to just one man……that is the most powerful man in the world…….Ben Bernanke. Single-handedly, he is supporting the equity markets via QE. His targets for the U.S. economy and unemployment in particular, to halt/reduce support and to start “tapering” are such, <span style=\"color: #000000;\">that a continued financial accommodation to the markets is on-going for the foreseeable future. </span>\n\n<span style=\"color: #000000;\">This weakens the USD, and, as much as I have talked about the USD eventually reacting against the QE push and strengthening, this is short-lived most of the time and the underlying trend</span> is long, ignoring the little hiccups that are seen from time to time. The only exceptions have for the most part been the commodity based currencies AUD, NZD, CAD and NOK.\n\nThe EUR/USD is the most heavily traded pair in the Fx market and the phrase “Never fight the FED” comes to mind loud and strong. Fundamentally, the Eurozone is in recession, unemployment is at highs in many countries, social services are poor and under-funded, mortgage arrears are high and growing, social unrest with austerity measures create a very uneasy atmosphere to say the least and political unrest is evident in many countries.\n\nMario Draghi, in my opinion is not as independent as his says he is, he has his strings controlled by Berlin and although his has several initiatives in place to help the Eurozone countries if required, the area struggles as the EUR strengthens and the German governmental policies are such that his hands may well be tied when push comes to a shove…so to speak! Even with poor economic data the Eurozone marches on and the EUR/USD marches onwards and upwards, whilst I think 1.3300 offers good resistance a break above and we could squeeze to 1.3400 very quickly.\n\nSo, the FED with its domestic monetary initiatives is controlling the movement of the most active currency pair in the Fx market, and the economic position of the Eurozone is to a large extent irrelevant to the movements of the EUR/USD currency pair. Trading this pair should therefore be pretty simple and straightforward. There will be news events that halt it, in, what seems a relentless move higher but overall the EUR/USD seems pretty directional and should a squeeze be on above 1.3300, it could get interesting with the correlations in the market.\n<ul>\n	<li><strong>AUD/USD: -</strong></li>\n</ul>\nI must briefly mention this pair. Although the RBA has announced a steadying of policy regarding additional interest rate cuts, this pair is still very responsive to news from China, the movement in Copper and raw materials. The S&amp;P 500 will keep it inflated to a point and it will not sell off aggressively when the S&amp;P moves higher, but the correlation is not as strong as it used to be. Australian domestic policy trumps all other cards, and, Australian economic data is very closely scrutinized as a result, much more than before to attempt to gain an advantage on future currency movements. You must be aware as the S&amp;P is close to all time record highs the AUD/USD is not near 1.1500, far from it, it is well below parity close to testing the key 0.9000 level once again. China and Copper are key drivers of this pair. If Copper drops below $3.00….look out in the AUD/USD.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<b> </b> <b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">2. MY VIEW ON THE NEWS SEEN FROM MY TRADING DESK:</span></b>\n<p align=\"center\"><strong>IS THE NEXT STOP FOR THE  USD/JPY  SUB 95.00 IN THE COMING SESSIONS?</strong></p>\nDespite Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe winning elections that have given his ruling party control of both parliamentary houses in the Japanese parliament, and the fact he has his man (Kuroda) in the BOJ and the fact that Japan has the equivalent of more than double the QE <span style=\"color: #000000;\">given</span> the per capita size/economy etc ……..the JPY will not weaken.\n\nLast weekend after the elections I saw calls for the USD/JPY to be trading at 102.00 and above!!  What happened…….profit taking. I heard this morning that only 10% of the Japanese people believe Abe’s view that he can weaken the JPY and remove deflation from the Japanese economy. Holy mother of God…if they do not believe in him, why did they vote for him? From my perspective it was like turkey’s voting for Christmas. Economic data released Thursday evening showed that the CPI (Core Prices Index) rose 0.4%, this shows some momentum gains over recent data, which, does show that maybe Abe has stated to succeed in finally breaking the deflationary hold that has been in the Japanese economy for the best part of two decades. These figures should drive growth and wages higher in the coming quarters.What happened on the release of this data, the USD/JPY broke down through 99.00 and then 98.57 a previous closing level. Abe’s policies would appear to be getting a footing but the USD/JPY strengthens. He must be scratching his head and drinking plenty of Sake.\n\nThe Nikkei 225 index has seen wild fluctuations over recent weeks and this plays hard on the JPY.\n\nThe Nikkei has moved a huge amount in 2013 alone some 37.20% to be exact.\n\nThe current Nikkei 225 statistics are: -\n\nClose yesterday: 14.129.98\nDown 432.95 (2.97%)\n52 week move = +70.71%\n2013 move = +37.20%\n52 week range 8,358.91 – 15,942.50\n\nSometimes it is very confusing to follow. The Nikkei is down hence pressure on the USD/JPY in North American trading, then you read the USD/JPY fell in North American trading hence the drop in the Nikkei 225 in the Asian session that followed. Then sometimes the USD/JPY drops on the back of movements lower in the U.S equity markets, in spite of a previous rise in Japanese equities the prior overnight session. It would be very straightforward if it were just Nikkei lower, USD/JPY falls and Nikkei 225 higher therefore USD/JPY higher as the JPY weakens. This is what Abe wants!\n\nThe JPY has always been sensitive to the US equity markets and that relationship is still there….more or less. As with most trading today we just have to be careful.\n\nThe chart below is the Daily chart of the USD/JPY.\n\n<a href=\"http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/USDJPY-MONTHLY-27072013.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1891\" alt=\"USDJPY MONTHLY 27072013\" src=\"http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/USDJPY-MONTHLY-27072013-1024x655.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"655\" /></a>\n\nIt shows a wedge triangle pattern that has been broken to the downside. These patterns when broken usually offer up big moves. There are however several trend lines on the lower side of the triangle that are muddying the waters for me a little as I do not know which one is in play at the moment and what measured move lower I should be looking at.\n\nThe profit opportunities if these moves happen are both large and very large. The lower end move could be as low as 88.50 if the widest triangle is in play or just below 97.00 at the narrow end. The point is we could have a nice move in play or a super duper move in play of 1,000 pips or so. The chart above looks good but beware.\n\nFor the life of me I cannot see in a month of Sunday’s Abe allowing the USD/JPY to trade back to sub 90.00….I cannot see him allowing sub 95.00, without him green lighting direct intervention in the Fx market by the BOJ over and above the current QE facility that is there. Trade the JPY very carefully. The moves can be sudden and very, very volatile. There is so much at stake here, not just billions and billions of Yen. The third largest economy in the world has been given a blueprint for the medium and long term ahead and political reputations, as well as longevity of governments at stake. Draghi once said recently “Whatever it takes”…he meant to say when talking about the EUR currency “Whatever it takes and as long as the Bundesbank and Angela agree it’s OK, and then we will promise but never deliver, kick another can down the road…same old same old…” <span style=\"color: #000000;\">With reference to Japan, this is such a huge deal that…”Testicles are in a vice”….the heavily advertised QE policy has to work no B.S. is allowed to intervene. Volatility in extremes can come with such a critical economic goal and path that Abe and Kuroda are taking, it is inevitable. No mater what is needed is the Japanese policy. In the past they have behaved like wets when it came to follow through. This time it\'s real and if for any reason Abe and Kuroda fall short. For years to come and policy from the BOJ will be deemed similar to \"The boy that cried wolf\". </span>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><b>3.   </b><b>MY LONGER-TERM TRADES: -</b></span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">USD/CAD:</span></b></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><b></b>I have been in this trade with a small position for just two days. I tweeted my entry. It is just a small position but I do feel that the CAD has not been acting in parallel with the AUD and NZD in recent days. There have been <span style=\"color: #000000;\">huge gains in both the AUD/USD and NZD/USD pairs testing resistance levels in the past few days. Whilst the USD/CAD moved down about 40 pips in total. Above 1.0300 with the USD/CAD and I feel a squeeze coming on!!\nLonger term, I think that this pairs resilience is worth persevering with as it is a prime candidat</span>e amongst the majors for a larger move.</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\" align=\"center\"><b> Long\nEntry/Cost Average: 1.0285\nStop Loss: 1.0180\nLimit: 1.0750\nClosing Price: 1.0274\nPosition Size: 40%\nPresent Position: -11 pips</b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b> <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">AUD/USD:</span></b></p>\n<p align=\"center\">I did not tweet but I entered the AUD/USD short yesterday, taking on what I believe to be a great risk/reward ratio in the long term. It is only a small position and well within my trading parameters/guidelines on money management.</p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Short\nEntry/Cost Average: 0.9252\nStop Loss: 0.9350\nLimit: 0.8850\nClosing Price: 0.9263\nPosition Size: 20%\nPresent Position: -11 pips</b></p>\n<b> </b> <b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">4. LOOKING AHEAD INTO THE NEXT WEEKS TRADING:</span></b>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>THE MAJOR SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS:</b></p>\n<b>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3278. </b>As I have mentioned already, 1.3300 is a big number for this pair in the coming sessions. I suspect we may hang around where we are, up to “Super Marios” press conference on Thursday. In my mind I cannot see him trying to talk EUR strength but stranger things have happened. He has looked very uncomfortable to me in recent ECB Press Conferences so it will be all eyes and ears open for me on Thursday this week at 08.30 eastern. As stated already above 1.3300 and I think there is a potential for a squeeze to 1.3400. On the support side 1.3250 is first then 1.3160.\n\n<b>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.5381</b>.<b> </b>I have a trade in mind with this pair and I am scared to place it. Every trade in the recent past with regards cable has gone mental for me not in a nice way. My trade is sell at 1.5430 with stops at 1.5475 looking to get back to 1.5250. Now I’ve written this trade down….ignore it, as it will never happen. GBP/USD is probably either going to gap lower by 100 points on tomorrow night (Sunday 28<sup>th</sup> July) or it is going blast through 1.5500. The range for me is 1.5250 to 1.5450.\n\n<b>AUD/USD: Closing Price 0.9263. </b>This pair is still weak whichever way you slice it up. 0.9310 offers good resistance going forward and it would be a great area to enter short if you are not already in an Aussie trade. Support is good at 0.9130 down to 0.9000. We are still very close to full on break down in this currency. Keep your eyes on Copper. If it sells off, AUD short should be a winning trade.\n\n<b> NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8082. </b>I am starting to dislike this currency. <span style=\"color: #000000;\">I was once like a \"nap\" bet for me,</span> a racing cert to go the way I thought it would. Nowadays, Wheeler (Governor RBNZ), is on to me and seems hell bent on screwing with my trades. I think that I have had a lot more failures than successes of late with this currency. I know that Wheeler has said no more interest rate reductions in 2013, but give me a break. This must be the most over-priced currency in the Fx market. What the bloody hell is it doing over 0.8000? When reality sets in this fecker is on its way much lower. Reading the charts however, we need to break 0.8000 as support to get a bearish tone and 0.8100 offers good resistance, prior to 0.8175. If it gets to 0.8175, I am off to trade Cattle and bloody hogs..feck these currencies!!\n\n<b>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.9283. </b>This pair is acting like the JPY at the moment. The SNB is very quiet at the moment but never rule out intervention from them in particular. They never pre-warn or make mutterings that they are not happy with life. 0.9250 and 0.9200 are key support levels with this pair and things do not in my opinion turn bullish unless we crack over 0.9300 maybe up to 0.9340 is the number to note for a bullish sentiment to return.\n\n<b> </b> <b>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.0274. </b>So close……I believe a break above 1.0310 gets us a squeeze higher. We hit just over 1.0300 yesterday but could not sustain the move. It’s a pity as I am long….. but enough about my own book. The range is 1.0240 to 1.0310.\n\n<b>USD/JPY: Closing Price 98.27. </b>Holy Mother of God….what the hell is happening with the Yen? That’s just me writing, can you imagine Abe and Kuroda? I fear that direct currency intervention will be ordered in addition to the QE to prevent the JPY strengthening too much. <span style=\"color: #000000;\">What is the level that the BOJ will raise their alert status to red on? Is it  USD/JPY 95.00 or maybe as low as USD/JPY 90.00? </span>They may intervene straightway at the open tomorrow night. <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">The BOJ have had a Sunday opening intervention stint before.</span> </span> We closed to the point on the breakdown key level of 98.27. Tomorrow’s Asian session will be interesting, particularly as trading levels will be thin. If we break below 98.00 with conviction it will get ugly.  I think 96.50 to 99.00 are the numbers to keep is sight. A break back above 99.00 should place the JPY bulls back in control…..for the time being anyway<b>.</b><b> </b> <b> </b> <b> </b>\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<b>5.  <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">MAJOR NEWS EVENTS IN THE COMING WEEK THAT INTEREST ME:</span></b>\n\nFor me, it will be a quiet start to the week with all the events that interest me coming in the last three days with Non Farm ranking the obvious choice for the most important event in the week.\n\nWEDNESDAY: USD – ADP Non Farm Employment Change\nWEDNESDAY: CAD – GDP\nWEDNESDAY: USD – FOMC\nWEDNESDAY: CNY – Manufacturing PMi\n\nTHURSDAY: GBP – Asset Purchase Facility and Interest Rate\nTHURSDAY: EUR – Interest Rate and Press Conference\nTHURSDAY: USD – ISM Manufacturing PMi\nTHURSDAY: AUD - PPi\n\nFRIDAY: GBP – Construction PMi\nFRIDAY: USD – Non-Farm Payrolls.   <b> </b>\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">6. FINAL THOUGHTS &amp; CLOSING COMMENTS:</span></b>\n\nThere is a massive week coming up for Fx related economic data.\n\nBecause it’s the summer we really have to careful as many of the larger institutions will have key staff away on vacations and moves will be limited or else wayward and out of control as a result.\n\nTrade carefully and watch out for elephant traps being set on low liquidity false breakouts.\n\nTake care and good luck,\n\n&nbsp;\n\nScott Pickering\nThe Pip Accumulator\nSaturday 26<sup>th</sup> July 2013.\n\n&nbsp;\n\nFollow me on Stock Twits: www.stocktwits.thepipaccumulator\nFollow me on Twitter: <a href=\"http://www.twitter.com/pipaccumulator\">www.twitter.com/pipaccumulator</a>','IS THE NEXT STOP FOR THE USD/JPY SUB 95.00 IN THE COMING SESSIONS?','','publish','open','closed','','the-usdjpy-should-be-watched-very-closely-over-the-coming-sessions','','','2013-07-27 12:08:32','2013-07-27 17:08:32','',0,'http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/?p=1888',0,'post','',0),(1864,1,'2013-06-29 11:52:27','2013-06-29 16:52:27','&nbsp;\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">1. INTRODUCTION:</span></b>\n\nAt the risk of sounding boring and repeating myself…last week was once again a record profit trading week for me in 2013. The AUD/USD and NZD/USD short trades once again dominated my trading history. I had a few USD/JPY short and long trades and a few EUR/USD short trades but the AUD &amp; NZD dominated my attention.\n\nChinese liquidity issues, Gold and the U.S. Bond yields dominated the news and combined they served up the basis for the uncertainty that fed the need for USD long positions. The equity markets rallied most of the week but the commodity currencies never really moved with equities hence it made good sense to hold AUD/USD &amp; NZD/USD shorts.\n\nThe big story for me in the week was the continued sell off in Gold. I will to refer to the move in Gold and my thoughts on where we are going to in a little more detail later in the blog.\n\nThere are some great moves in the making in the Fx market at the moment and I am in two core longer term trades at the moment that I want to add to, hopefully next week as these trades develop. I am conscious that we are entering the sleepy season of the markets. Historically, July and August are dull….I mean dull.  Liquidity is thin as traders are on vacations and market moves can be extreme based upon a big sell or buy order so I do not want to get carried away, with any moves that might happen. The “Dull” season is usually full of false breakouts, so for parts of the trading days going forward I will be sitting on my hands with my fingers away from the keyboard.\n\nNext week offers some great opportunities for the markets to really move. The ECB has an interest rate decision and a Draghi press conference and we also have Non-Farm payrolls in the U.S. These will be market moving events and I will be on vacation for a wedding in the UK, stopping in Ireland first for a few days, so I will not be trading these news events. I should also mention at this juncture that there will be no Weekly Fx Drive-Thru after this week’s effort until July 27<sup>th</sup> 2013.\n\nThe big debate for me is…..how am I going to trade when away? I will want to keep in touch.\n\nI should also apologise for my reduced “Tweeting” recently.  We can call it senility, if we want to……I just keep forgetting. After my vacation, I need to put a post-it note on my computers to remind me.\n\n<b> </b>\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><b>2. MY VIEW ON THE NEWS SEEN FROM MY TRADING DESK:</b></span>\n<p align=\"center\"><strong>A USD OUTLOOK PLUS WHERE IS GOLD GOING NEXT?</strong></p>\nAs you know if you regularly read my blogs, I have been a USD bull for the past few months. The USD index has moved down and up and down again recently and we are now easing back into an uptrend.\n\nThe USD index is a great lead indicator to market direction and is an essential tool to look at and when used, in conjunction with other lead indicators it gives a huge bolt to your confidence when placing a trade in today’s volatile Fx market. I use it  along with a few other indicators. I have often referred to these in the past.\n\nMy daily routine, first thing I do when I sit in front of my computers is look at the following: -\n\nUSD index\nTHE HOLY TRINITY of GOLD, COPPER AND OIL\nAUD/USD\nUSD/CAD\nUSD/SEK and sometimes USD/NOK\n\nI have blogged several times about this in the past, inter-market relationships and correlations work the majority of the time and should never be dismissed out of hand if they are not syncing. When they are not working as usual you are on guard, but when they are in sync it is a great tool and guide  that we have as traders. In addition, if my lead indicating Fx currency pairs have short, medium and long term trends all in the same direction, this gives even more confidence in my trades, if I am trading in the same direction. In fact at times without this I sometimes walk away from placing trades.\n\nSo, focusing for a moment on Gold: -\n<p style=\"padding-left: 270px;\">GOLD: 52 week high almost at $1800.00.\nCLOSE YESTERDAY (FRIDAY 27<sup>th</sup> June 2013) $ 1,234.00\nDROP: Roughly thereabouts 33%</p>\nThe recent Gold sell-off has been coming. The flight to safety, hedge calls long associated with the buying of Gold are now really being seen as a bit off the mark, given the economic improvement in the U.S. and the “Tapering” talk from Ben Bernanke. Money has been for some time  transferred from one asset class to another, and the need for Gold has been called into question. It offers safety…but unless it is constantly rising offers no return. Therefore, it stands to reason that with a brighter economic outlook it should not be as popular.\n\nThis move out of Gold, which, is strongly correlated to the USD, has fuelled the recent USD strength, which, in turn, has had a topping effect on the price of Crude Oil and at the same time kept the dollar well bid across the commodity currencies. Although equities markets globally have continued in the main to be bullish, the S&amp;P has continued to hold support levels and it is fighting not to roll over.\n\nEverything is linked;  the AUD/USD which as a currency pair is now broken as the key 61.8% retracement Fibonacci level of the 2008 Financial Crash lows to recent highs of 0.9150 gave way yesterday. If this currency pair moves the Gold price lower with it, so much more pressure is placed on Gold as the AUD/USD falls.\n\nWhat adds fuel to the fire here is that most analysts are expecting a bounce in the AUD/USD and it is just not happening , which makes me think it has along way to go yet. This places more downside pressure on Gold. We hit lows of $1,180 in yesterdays trading, this is over a 30% fall from the 52 week highs, that\'s $600.00…..huge.\n\nIf there were Gold buyers in place between $1250 and $1200 expecting a bounce that hasn’t really happened yet. What do you think will happen if the momentum carries Gold down to key support around $1,160, and it gives way. Those buyers who bought hoping for a bounce will get out of their long trades placing more downside pressure on Gold and the AUD/USD will follow suit lower.\n\nGold rallied after hitting lows yesterday at $1,180 back above $1,200. But as long as it is below $1,250 there will still be downside pressure.\n\nSo where do I think Gold is ultimately going? I think a test of $1,160 is on the cards…it is too good not to be tested. If this level breaks, watch the AUD/USD, NZD/USD, Copper and USD strength overall…I think a potential waterfall chart to say the least. But I am expecting buyers and lots of them at $1,160 in Gold.\n\nSo we have a few ingredients in the mixing bowl. Add in FED tapering probably in September/October, the market needs to adjust to take this on board. This week’s economic data will be crucial, there are ISM’s and Non Farm Payrolls. If the numbers are decent, the USD will extend it’s gains.\n\nThen we have the subject of the replacement of BEN at the FED. The markets hate uncertainty and this will place pressure on equities and add to the USD strength. There are a number of front running candidates to replace BEN but if a less familiar name appears on this list this will be a wild card to add to the mix.\n\nSo….a big week ahead and lots to juggle…….\n\nThere are multiple trades ahead in the Fx market linked in particular to the movements of the AUD$ and Gold.\n\nThe support level in Gold of $1,160 is critical. If Gold does not bounce at this level…….look out below. I think then it is the psychological level of $1,000 per ounce that will come into view very quickly. USD strength in the currency markets will be tasty to trade.\n\nThe AUD/USD closed below 0.9150 yesterday. This sets a very bearish tone. If you read all the reports from fund managers and TV analysis this past seven days, in the main they were all long expecting a bounce in the AUD$. It has NOT happened, any pullback has been so shallow not to cause a flicker of worry in my short trade set ups at all.\n\nWhat about Copper?\n\nAll eyes are on Gold and the AUD$ at the moment, but add Copper into the equation. If Copper breaks below $3.00, this will also fuel the moves lower in Gold, Oil, AUD/USD maybe to 0.8540, NZD/USD towards 0.7350, EUR/USD finally into a re-test of the 1.2650 area , send the USD/CAD towards 1.1000 and the USD/SEK and USD/NOK much higher also.\n\nIn the event Gold falls away, the commodity currencies will move like “Wildfires”. Make sure the moves are confirmed before getting in too heavy on trades as these levels are huge technical levels and they will not be given up easily.\n\nBut do not rule out the AUD/USD bringing Gold down all by itself it maybe a bit oversold but WTF. The USD/JPY was soooooooooo overbought recently and no-one gave a rat’s ass as it leapt well above 100.00.\n\nThere are massive pip opportunities with these moves if they happen. I know that there are lots of “if’s” “and’s” and “but’s” flying around but we as traders have to have plans for whatever happens.\n\nThese are just my thoughts and the actions that I am getting prepared for. We need to have strategy’s ready and waiting and we have to be on the lookout and be alert to the market.\n\nI could not let this section of the blog pass by without a comment about Peter Schiff from Euro Pacific Capital, the ultimate Gold bull. The guy who was two/three months ago quoting Gold at $5,000 this was early on when Gold was moving lower, the thought was a 5-10% correction.  A believed modest pullback…….well 33% later, a $5,000 price target seems a hell of a long way away.\n\nI have no doubt Gold will rise again as the world economies start to show improvement, but,  I just cannot see the rise being so dramatic again. Where is Peter Schiff? This guy does not usually allow the TV show hosts a word in edgeways….it is so quiet and not as much fun watching the likes of CNBC without him.\n\nMy guess knowing CNBC..he will be wheeled in if the Gold support at $1,160 holds and we see a bounce back above $1,250. At this point it will be usual CNBC approach of: -\n\n“Buy buy buy”\n\nJoking apart, you must trade carefully around the crucial support levels. Whilst I think we are going much lower in all areas…who the hell am I? If I was that good I would not be blogging I would be on a beach somewhere or by the side of a pool with unlimited Jack and diets being brought to me by Cameron Diaz look-a-likes.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<b>3.   </b><b>MY LONGER-TERM TRADES:</b>\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">EUR/USD:</span></b>\n\nI have been in this trade with a small position for over two weeks, almost three now. I have taken profits along the way, added to my position several times and managed this trade lower being quite cautious in my trade sizes. My fundamental views on the Eurozone have not altered and my limit targets are aggressive to say the least.\n<p align=\"center\"><b> </b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>EUR/USD\nShort\nEntry/Cost Average: 1.3236\nStop Loss: 1.3157\nLimit: 1.1850\nClosing Price: 1.3009\nPosition Size: 10%\nPresent Position: +227 pips</b></p>\n<b> </b>\n<p align=\"center\"><b> </b></p>\nThe following two trades, I have been in and out of in the past week or so. I have taken lots and lots of profits along the way and I am holding these positions for a while longer.<b></b>\n<p align=\"center\"><b> </b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>AUD/USD\nShort\nEntry/Cost Average: 0.9194\nStop Loss: 0.9224\nLimit: 0.8540\nClosing Price: 0.9137\nPosition Size: 20%\nPresent Position: +34 pips</b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>USD/CAD\nLong\nEntry/Cost Average: 1.0529\nStop Loss: 1.0477\nLimit: 1.1200\nClosing Price: 1.0516\nPosition Size: 20%\nPresent Position: -13 pips</b></p>\n<b> </b>\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><b>4. LOOKING AHEAD INTO THE NEXT 5.5 DAYS OF TRADING:</b></span>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>THE MAJOR SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS:</b></p>\n<b>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3009. </b>Bloody Hell…somebody does not want the fe***r below 1.3000. It’s boring…I am well up in my long term trade, but I expected this pair to be testing 1.2800 about this time. Is it the Chinese, or the Germans who is protecting a sub 1.3000 move? Upside moves are well resisted at 1.3150 a great place to short if you want to take a trade. Support is 1.3000, or rather 1.2985. A break below here sets up a test of the May lows of 1.2797 (1.2800). Maybe Super Mario will p**s everyone off on Thursday and we will finally head lower…do not hold your breath. This bad boy is very well supported at these levels.\n\n<a href=\"http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/EURUSD-MONTHLY-29062013.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1867\" alt=\"EURUSD MONTHLY 29062013\" src=\"http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/EURUSD-MONTHLY-29062013-1024x655.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"655\" /></a>\n\n&nbsp;\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<b>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.5210</b>.<b> </b>The cable is very weak. The poor economic data keeps coming back just after you think its bouncing off the worst. We held 1.5180 and pushed back above 1.5200 yesterday. This is a big level, the 61.8% retracement of the March-June upward move. If the EUR/USD breaks lower the GBP will follow and a break below 1.5180 sets up 1.5000 then 1.4830. Upside resistance is good at 1.5345 and even better at 1.5480.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<b>AUD/USD: Closing Price 0.9137. </b>I have written a lot about this pair already in this blog, and although originating from Liverpool I do not want to keep repeating myself, even though us scousers love to keep going! Upside resistance is now 0.9150, then 0.9285 and 0.9350. Support is obviously the psychological 0.9000 and then 0.8540 is my next target. I think the RBA and Aussie government would be very happy sub 0.9000, given their recent comments. The Armageddon target is a 61.8% Fib of the 2008 crisis to the highs retracement at 0.7940. If we get there happy days…..”Say goodnight to the kids Gracie”.\n\n<b><a href=\"http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/AUDUSD-MONTHLY-29062013.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1868\" alt=\"AUDUSD MONTHLY 29062013\" src=\"http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/AUDUSD-MONTHLY-29062013-1024x655.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"655\" /></a>\n</b>\n\n<b>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.7736. </b>I have traded this pair quite a bit recently but following “Wheeler’s” (RBNZ governor) comments it has NOT dropped as much as I had hoped, in fact, it’s only about 20 pips or so off last weeks closing position. Compare that to the AUD/USD. So it’s all down to the AUD/NZD cross-rate effect. It is as they in sporting circles, “Playing a blinder”. It may well be, but it is annoying the crap out of me. The good news is that if Gold goes parabolically lower and the AUD/USD follows and the EUR/USD heads to 1.2800…this pair will be like Lewis Hamilton’s qualifying lap at Silverstone today…unstoppable.  A quote will be “The Ar*e will kicked out of it” and that is the polite quote. 0.7000 will be in view so fast and the Armageddon 0.6500 comes into view following that. Upside resistance is 0.7850.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<b>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.9448. </b>Not interested in this pair at all right now……boring, boring boring.  The continued Eurozone uncertainty despite so called fiscal arrangements and banking unions announced this week are as usual all hot air as they are so far from being implemented..it may never actually happen. In the Eurozone uncertainty rules, it\'s always “Fur coat and no knickers” stuff from the Eurozone leaders. Implementation is far from “easy peasy”, more “can’s down the road” and all that stuff….\n\nMore and more uncertainty is not helped by election fever and IMF quotes in the region surrounding Greece and Cyprus, to name just two members of the single currency union.\n\nThis means that upside moves are difficult and it will remain strained as it is seen as the European safe haven option. We have a very tight range that will need a real push to break properly. 0.9400 to 0.9520 is the range I see on the charts. The EUR/USD will lead this pair a little but I do think that major moves will be contained.\n\n<b>\n</b>\n\n<b>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.0515. </b>What can I say?  At long last we are on the move with the loonie!! There is a bull flag formation in play here and remember this pair has literally been tied down for about three years. We are finally breaking out above 1.0420 and the flagpole extension takes us to 1.0850. Big pip opportunities ahead. Resistance levels are 1.0600, 1.0670 then 1.0800. Support is mega at 1.0420.\n\n<a href=\"http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/USDCAD-MONTHLY-29062013.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1869\" alt=\"USDCAD MONTHLY 29062013\" src=\"http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/USDCAD-MONTHLY-29062013-1024x655.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"655\" /></a>\n\n&nbsp;\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<b>USD/JPY: Closing Price 99.11. </b>Where is this pair going? I really do not know what to write here. I hate being on the fence but, I am confused by this pair. My gut tells me to short the “be jesus” out of it around 99.85 to 100.00, but would I?\nSupport is 98.50 and I suppose resistance is 99.90…but be careful.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<b> </b>\n\n<b> </b>\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><b>5.  MAJOR NEWS EVENTS IN THE COMING WEEK THAT INTEREST ME:</b></span>\n\nA complete u-turn from last week, this week is full of goodies on the news front.\n\nSUNDAY: CNY – Manufacturing PMi\n\nMONDAY: GBP  - Manufacturing PMi\nMONDAY: USD – ISM Manufacturing PMi\n\nTUESDAY: AUD – RBA Rate Statement\nTUESDAY: GBP – Construction PMi\nTUESDAY: AUD – Retails Sales and Trade Balance\n\nWEDNESDAY: GBP – Services PMi\nWEDNESDAY: USD – ADP Non Farm Employment Change\nWEDNESDAY: CAD – Trade Balance\nWEDNESDAY: USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMi\n\nTHURSDAY: GBP – Asset Purchase Facility and Interest Rate\nTHURSDAY: EUR – Interest Rate and Press Conference\n\nFRIDAY: CAD – Employment Change and Unemployment Rate\nFRIDAY: USD – Non-Farm Payrolls.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<b> </b>\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><b>6. FINAL THOUGHTS &amp; CLOSING COMMENTS:</b></span>\n\nThere is a massive week coming up for Fx related economic data. Not sure how much of this stuff I will trade due to my short vacation but I would say, this week has the potential to define the summers direction.\n\nTrade carefully and watch out for elephant traps being set on low liquidity false breakouts.\n\nBack on July 27<sup>th</sup>.\n\nTake care and good luck,\n\n&nbsp;\n\nScott Pickering\nThe Pip Accumulator\nSaturday 29th June 2013.\n\nFollow me on Stock Twits: www.stocktwits.thepipaccumulator\nFollow me on Twitter: <a href=\"http://www.twitter.com/pipaccumulator\">www.twitter.com/pipaccumulator</a>','A USD OUTLOOK PLUS WHERE IS GOLD GOING NEXT?','','publish','open','closed','','usd-strength-usd-outlook-the-aud-plus-where-is-gold-going-next-what-potential-fx-trades-does-all-this-set-up','','','2013-06-29 11:52:27','2013-06-29 16:52:27','',0,'http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/?p=1864',0,'post','',0),(1846,1,'2013-06-22 08:41:05','2013-06-22 13:41:05','<b>1.  </b><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">INTRODUCTION: </span></b>\n\nWhat a great week for trading. It was all about “Bennie and the Jets” this week aka Ben Bernanke and the FED Policy Committee.\n\nEarly in the week pre Wednesday, it was....do very little ....just prepare and then on Wednesday….launch….and off we go. My best week for profits in 2013 so far. When you consider it was just a 2.5 day trading week the opportunities were just fantastic. I hope all you guys made some pips also.\n\nMoving forward, I think that we are about to change from a bullish to bearish sentiment. Whether this will be very fast, who knows, but I do think we are changing moods. Therefore, I believe that USD strength will be here for the next week or so, at least, so a directional market should be in play, which, is a rare treat so enjoy it while it lasts.\n\nSeveral factors are also in play right now causing chaos that are affecting the markets at the moment. If you stand back and take a look at the wild swings and volatility the markets are actually in turmoil.\n\nThe double whammy of the unbalance caused by Shinzo Abe (Japanese Prime Minister) with his desire to hit a 2% Japanese inflation target by intervention in the Yen, causing bond yields to go mental, plus, Ben’s tapering (ending/reducing the FED monthly QE support to the U.S. markets) has the whizz kids of Wall Street running out to buy cover, not just in the financial sense but also in the toilet sense…sales of Immodium, Pepto Bismol and Charmin Ultra to name but three products are in short supply (in particular, around the NYSE and CME). If you also trade shares, these companies may be worth looking at as a potential buy.\n\nThere are many key levels with the currencies that I love to trade, the AUD/USD and NZD/USD plus the pair I hate to trade but seem to get suckered into the USD/CAD. All three pairs offer up some big moves, and, in addition the EUR and GBP look like they are now going to move much lower as well in the coming sessions.\n\nIt is exciting to trade at the moment…..but do not get too carried away. Always trade within your “Trading Plan” guidelines and your financial limits. With a trending market, this is definitely the time to enter small, add to profitable positions, and, move stops to break even, take profits off the table and let the remainder of your position size run.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<b> </b>\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><b>2. MY VIEW ON THE NEWS SEEN FROM MY TRADING DESK:</b></span>\n<p align=\"center\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>WHAT NEXT....NOW THAT BEN HAS DELIVERED?</strong></span></p>\nWho would have thought it?\n\nPrior to the two day FED meeting last Tuesday and Wednesday, the word “Tapering” was, without doubt, in financial circles, the most used word in any conversation. In fact, it is a relatively new word to be used in the financial area but I am already sick to death of it. The run up to the FED statement and Ben’s press conference on Wednesday was over the top with expectation, and a huge number of analysts talked down the fact that “Tapering” would be mentioned but in general terms, as per the previous press releases.\n\nWell fair play, the man I note as “The most powerful man in the world”, who looks to have been told via an Obama TV interview that his tenure at the FED will NOT be renewed……stuck to the markets with a clear and unambiguous timetable with the reiteration of the details of the targets required to start tapering FED support.\n\nThe Fed chairman was crystal clear…Bond buying could be tapered this year and end completely by the middle of 2014. Very few people expected the FED to end QE so fast, never mind have Ben be so clear on the timing.\n\nAs I have already mentioned in my introduction, the effects of this on Wall Street in particular, was like taking a “Pacifier/Dummy” away from a crying baby. The equity markets have been bounding along for months, in the knowledge that this day would come. After the announcement that the Fed will not be there to hold the hands of Wall Street for infinity…confusion, panic, disbelief…all the usual Wall Street crap.\n\nOne piece of great fun for me after taking profits is spending a few minutes doing some inter-market catch-ups. There was no better way for me to do this than watching CNBC after Ben had finished his press conference, at the same time as setting up a few trades for the Asian session. I watched a re-run on the PVR of the CNBC reaction and how the presenters and their panel of invited “Bull traders” viewed matters. The fascination for me, the immediate responses were quite good on the whole as they accepted that the U.S. economy was improving and that the FED could not offer QE forever.\n\nHowever, being the cynic that I am on such matters…. I knew that there would be a sting in the tail….I was intrigued.\n\nSo as I expected the sting came on Thursday and Friday......CNBC were back to their true colours as the equity markets nose-dived, they rolled-out the idiot guests that they endorse whose only comments are: -\n<p align=\"center\">“buy, buy, buy…\nnow is the time to buy…\nwe are going higher from here…\nthis is the bottom…\nnow is the time to get in, it’s pulled back enough”</p>\nCome on, enough is enough…this TV station needs to be held accountable.\n\nThe presenters often talk about when is “Ma and Pa” going to fully re-invest in equities following the 2008 crash.\n\nWell it sure isn’t straight after the day the Fed pulls the rug from under the equity markets. Credibility as a premier “First in Business” my a**.\n\nLooking forward from here, I do not know what is going to happen……no-one does…..it is all a matter of opinion. I feel that the equity markets are going to dump, but, this is only my opinion.\n\nWhy do I feel this way?\n\nAfter Thursday’s lows in the equity markets, there followed a pullback that was expected in the Asian and the European sessions. Then on Friday the Thursday lows were hit and breached. This is a very negative statement. What happened yesterday was key, even though we bounced off the lows it was nothing. Market bounces over the next couple of sessions will be critical. If we do not get other than shallow bounces, that is, no “Snap Back” rally……believe me……we will be heading much, much lower.\n\nSo far, my focus has been on the U.S markets. These points alone set us up, in my opinion, for a move much lower.\n\nThere are many other fundamental world factors playing towards USD strength as I look around the world.\n\nWe have emerging markets issues….. social unrest is now common place most nights on our TV screens. In addition, there are numerous reports in various social networking sites that money  invested in these countries is under threat and the investors will review and possibly bring their money back to a “safe-haven” and 90% of the time, this would be the USD.  As people buy dollars this immediately weakens the equity markets, and sends them lower.\n\nBRAZIL: protesting over public transport issues, there were over one million protestors on the streets.\nCHINA: - the economy is under-performing, its goals and the aspirations of it’s people are so high, they are not being met. There are also banking liquidity issues in the background.\nINDIA: - the economy is now strained and civil unrest is growing as the country tries to come to grips with modernization.\n\nThen add my favourite disaster area the Eurozone…..\n\nGREECE: - unemployment, austerity and State TV closures. Now we hear that the socialist left party in the fragile coalition is pulling out of the coalition because of the ERT TV station closure. Are there elections on the way?\nSPAIN: - austerity and unemployment.\nCYPRUS: - banking issues and job cuts.\nPORTUGAL:- austerity and unemployment.\n\nAll these factors relating to the countries above are going to weigh in and the benefactor is the USD.\n\nAs forex traders this spells out in font size 72, <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>A GREAT OPPORTUNITY</strong></span>.\n\nI am looking at the following levels in the USD majors: -\n\nEUR/USD: A break of 1.3100 (a previous breakout position), and we are green for go to a lot lower. There is a very weird looking “Head and Shoulders” pattern in play and should we break 1.2800. It looks like sub 1.2000 for me if the measured move plays out.\n\nGBP/USD: Sub 1.5000 is on the cards and if the EUR/USD breaks 1.2800, I think cable is heading towards 1.4300.\n\nUSD/CHF: Above 0.9400. We are heading to 0.9750 then a test of parity.\n\nUSD/CAD: After a break above 1.0500, I see a run much higher towards 1.100 and 1.1200.\n\nAUD/USD: My revised target after we break lower through the critical 0.9160 is 0.8750. If equities really pullback I can see 0.8500.\n\nNZD/USD: My target with this pair in sympathy with the AUD/USD is 0.7000.\n\nRemember as well, my “Holy Trinity”… Gold is broken, the next stop is $1,100.00. If Copper breaks blow $3.00……I will short the “crap” out of the AUD/USD. Oil, if it breaks below $90.00….look out below.\n\nWe are in the zone for a huge/massive sentiment shift…get ready. I think that we are in for at least a 10% S&amp;P correction , if not  a 15% S&amp;P correction given the way the markets rose on bad data.\n\nTrade sensibly, if my thoughts and opinions come into play there are thousands of pips available.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><b>3. </b><b>MY LONGER-TERM TRADES: -</b></span>\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">EUR/USD:</span></b>\n\nI have been in this trade with a small position for over 10 days. I have taken profits along the way, added to my position several times and managed this trade lower being quite cautious in position sizes. My fundamental views on the Eurozone have not altered and my limit targets are aggressive to say the least.\n<p align=\"center\"><b> </b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>EUR/USD\nShort\nEntry/Cost Average: 1.3236\nStop Loss: 1.3236\nLimit: 1.1850\nClosing Price: 1.3121\nPosition Size: 20%\nPresent Position: +105 pips</b></p>\n<b></b><b> </b>\n\nThe following four trades I entered late afternoon on Friday. They are very small, minimum risk deals. I will not be around tomorrow evening for the Asian open and will also miss the European session on Monday morning. I wanted to have a presence in the markets hence these very low risk trades<b>.</b><b> </b>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>GBP/USD\nShort\nEntry/Cost Average: 1.5429\nStop Loss: 1.5479\nLimit: 1.4300\nClosing Price: 1.5418\nPosition Size: 10%\nPresent Position: +8 pips</b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>AUD/USD\nShort\nEntry/Cost Average: 0.9228\nStop Loss: 0.9278\nLimit: 0.8550\nClosing Price: 0.9219\nPosition Size: 10%\nPresent Position: +7 pips</b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>NZD/USD\nShort\nEntry/Cost Average: 0.7748\nStop Loss: 0.7798\nLimit: 0.7000\nClosing Price: 0.7747\nPosition Size: 10%\nPresent Position: -1 pip</b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>USD/CAD\nLong\nEntry/Cost Average: 1.0455\nStop Loss: 1.0405\nLimit: 1.1200\nClosing Price: 1.0455\nPosition Size: 10%\nPresent Position: Level</b></p>\n<b> </b>\n\n<b>4.<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> LOOKING AHEAD INTO THE NEXT 5.5 DAYS OF TRADING:</span></b>\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">THE MAJOR SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS</span>:</b></p>\n<b>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3121. </b>We are sitting at a crucial, key, major support level of 1.3100. (Do you think I am over emphasizing this?) Whilst there is a complex looking (rather oddly shaped) “Head and Shoulders” pattern on the Daily chart for this pair, the final arm extension is miles away, should the shoulder of 1.2800 give way. Now I do believe that we are on our way to test 1.2800 at some time in the near future. The measured move, which, must have many EUR bears placing huge supplies of Krug, and Bollinger on ice is sub 1.2000. On one of my broker’s charts I cannot get the display to tighten far enough to show the 1.1860 figure that I see as the measured move completion. I would not get too carried away at the moment but I am approximating here, I could be shy or bold by 50-60 pips or so. In any event, that number is for another blog. Immediate support and resistance to look at this week lies after 1.3100, then 1.3034. I feel as already stated, a confirmed break below 1.3100, and  we will be checking out 1.2800. Upside resistance should now be good at 1.3180 and then 1.3260…but do not hold your breath. If we do not  retrace back to 1.3180 Sunday/Monday…..we are going much, much lower in my opinion.\n<a href=\"http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/EURUSD-MONTHLY-220613.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1850\" alt=\"EURUSD MONTHLY 220613\" src=\"http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/EURUSD-MONTHLY-220613-1024x571.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"571\" /></a>\n\n<b>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.5418</b>.<b> </b>We are sitting in the lower part of a key range that cable has been trading.  We broke the lower end on Friday but bounced back. Until we break - sit tight. Let the trade come to you. The EUR/USD this week will be leading. The cable range is 1.5380 to 1.5550.\n\n<b>AUD/USD: Closing Price 0.9219. </b> Wowie…almost here we go. This is my favourite pair to trade. I need equities to really turn lower and correct and as one of my friends uses as his “catchphrase…”Happy Days”. We are sitting so close to major support that has held twice already. We need the S&amp;P to break lower for this support level to break in my opinion. 0.9160 is a big, big, big, big and I mean a big feck**g number. This gives way and my once seen by a few people of an “Armageddon” price target of 0.8750 could be on. Certainly, many analysts have been quoting 0.9000 as the objective set by the RBA. I have no idea what they have set, but in the crazy f***ed up interventionist world that we live in maybe it’s 0.8500 as the target for the AUD/USD. The weaker the better is the talk of the town right now by central bank officials.\nThe range is pretty clear 0.9160 to resistance at 0.9260. If pullbacks are shallow, you know the score………..lower we go. If it squeezes higher take it as a gift to short.\n\n<b>\nNZD/USD: Closing Price 0.7747. </b>The Kiwi is my second favourite currency to trade, after the Aussie dollar. I love New Zealand as a country, it was our second choice country to live in after Canada following our move here from Spain. For that reason alone, I took a real serious interest in the country, its economics and obviously it’s wine!!\nI love yer man Wheeler governor of the RBNZ. No bulls**t sort of guy, started very quietly in the job, was it last year or the year before, I can’t remember, but the guy is as straight a talker as anyone in the role he has. It’s the culture of the country, give me news without frills, do not dress it up, if it’s a “Pig” tell me it’s a ”Pig”. This approach for traders in Fx is clear and great to follow, the ‘no brainer’ approach is the best one to follow, actually, in all aspects of life, but in particular the Fx market. There is no QE here, no asset purchase facility......they (RBNZ) will intervene directly in the money markets if the NZD/USD strengthens too much. Therefore, take this as read if the Kiwi does not follow the AUD/USD down almost in sync, the RBNZ will help it along the way. To me this means, for the time being DO NOT long the NZD/USD. The New Zealand government wants a much weaker currency like most other countries. They follow the lead set by Australia. What are the targets? If the AUD/USD is just 0.9000, the NZD/USD is 0.7500. My Kiwi “Armageddon” number is 0.6500.\nFor the immediate time we need to get below 0.7700 to have 0.7500 in our sights. Upside resistance is 0.7800. Like the Aussie, if this pair squeezes to 0.7800, take it as a gift to short up there.\n\n<b>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.9344. </b>Not really following this pair at all at the moment. Because of the Yen situation and troubles in the Eurozone, I fear this currency is a “safe-haven” European option, and as a result it could strengthen at any time and the inverse relationship it has with the EUR/USD is thrown out of the window. Looking at charts the range in play which, has capped moves up and down is 0.9185 to 0.9400.\n\n<b>\nUSD/CAD: Closing Price 1.0455. </b>Finally we are moving. Now this pair is one of my leading indicators,and, although in recent times, it has been trapped in a tight range not moving much at all….here we go. I think if we scale through 1.0500  and head higher to where the air is thin and difficult to breathe and we will require oxygen to breathe normally. Chart extensions of 1.100 to 1.1200 are in my sights. This week the range to keep in mind is 1.0300 support (which looks hard to scale back to) to 1.0525, then 1.0660.\n\n<b>USD/JPY: Closing Price 97.88. </b>What do you do with this pair? There are so many unknowns, so many possible outcomes. We know that Abe is determined at all costs to weaken this pair. Therefore, one would expect given the fact that USD are being bought everywhere the USD/JPY would fly through 100.00. But, we have the Nikkei sell off and the U.S. equity markets coming under severe pressure. The market turmoil plays on the JPY and all crosses the most. The big range is 93.50 to 98.50. The immediate range is 97.00 to 98.00. Personally, I am staying away from the JPY and looking elsewhere.\n\n<b> </b><b> </b>\n\n<b>5.  <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">MAJOR NEWS EVENTS IN THE COMING WEEK THAT INTEREST ME:</span></b>\n\nThis week is a difficult week for me on news events. Not a lot takes my fancy at all.\n\nTUESDAY: USD – Consumer Confidence.\nWEDNESDAY: NZD – Trade Balance.\nFRIDAY: CAD – GDP.\n\n<b> </b><b> </b>\n\n<b>6<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">. FINAL THOUGHTS &amp; CLOSING COMMENTS:</span></b>\n\nNot much news coming up that really takes my fancy. That does not mean that I will not be trading. The equity markets this week will gives us (Fx traders) our lead on how to trade.\n\nAs I have stated already, we are in the middle of a market sentiment shift, and, whilst there are many imponderables, such as China, Japan and the Eurozone, all of these I do feel play into the hands of a strengthening USD.\n\nAs always trade smaller with wider stops as the roller-coaster ride of volatility is set to continue, although now, I am more hopeful that we will see a trending market for a while. Let’s hope the trending market stays, as it is a safer place to trade within.\n\nTake care and good luck,\n\nScott Pickering\nThe Pip Accumulator\nSaturday 22nd June 2013.\n\nFollow me on Twitter: <a href=\"http://www.twitter.com/pipaccumulator\">www.twitter.com/pipaccumulator</a>\nFollow me on Stock Twits: www.stocktwits.thepipaccumulator','WHAT NEXT...NOW THAT BEN HAS DELIVERED?','','publish','open','closed','','what-next-now-that-ben-has-delivered','','','2013-06-22 08:41:05','2013-06-22 13:41:05','',0,'http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/?p=1846',0,'post','',1),(1831,1,'2013-06-15 15:30:11','2013-06-15 20:30:11','<b>1.    </b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><b>INTRODUCTION:</b></span>\n\nWhat a week for volatility.\n\nI know we all love volatility to set us up nicely for trading but my God last week was a humdinger as they say, the USD/JPY, in fact all the Yen pairs went berserk. Some great opportunities to make money, I hope that if you traded you kept your positions small and took profits before the savage pullbacks.\n\nIt never happened for me the way I thought in last weeks blog regarding the NZD/USD moving a lot lower. In fact, in the week overall the Kiwi dollar has strengthened quite a lot. I do expect a great shorting opportunity at the multi-year trend line of 0.8200 if we get there.\n\nDuring this past week, I traded my favourite pairs AUD/USD and NZD/USD short until the Yen moves were so market moving that I decided to stop trading them and I incurred small losses. Subsequently, I have tried on a couple of occasions to go long the USD by shorting the AUD/USD and NZD/USD and in addition the EUR/USD and GBP/USD. Made great money one day last week and lost small on two other occasions.\n\nLast night, I looked at my trading accounts, and, for the week my accounts have grown  a staggering 16%...absolutely ridiculous. 80% of the 16% gain was made from shorting the USD/JPY on many, many occasions.\n\nOne thing for certain; the volatility is going to carry on as the Nikkei 225 unwinds. Look at the following data relating to the Nikkei this year so far: -\n\n2013 YEAR TO DATE: up 23%\nONE YEAR: up 51%\n52 Week range: 8,328.02 – 15,942.60\nFRIDAY’S CLOSE: 12,686.52\nThe Nikkei 225 is about 20% lower off the 2013 highs and it is now technically called as being in a “Bear” market.\nThe daily moves of 5% and 6% are now common……these are very volatile and not usual by any stretch of the imagination.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<b>2. <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">MY VIEW ON THE NEWS SEEN FROM MY TRADING DESK:</span></b>\n<p align=\"center\"><strong>AWAY FROM JAPAN……IT’S BACK TO GREECE AGAIN TO STIR THINGS UP</strong></p>\nWho would have thought it?\n\nYou switch off the state TV station to save money and the outcry, quite staggering. Another 2,656 added to the unemployment lines. It has allegedly according to many reports been “A scandalous waste of money and a haven of waste and corruption”…this quote coming from a former  ERT TV anchor, now a government spokesman Simos Kedikoglou. Given all the reports I have read on Greece I was expecting about 25,000 employees in this state run TV station not 10% of that figure. The state media group in total operated three TV stations, 17 radio stations a satellite channel, and a magazine.\n\nThe shutdown was carried out unilaterally by the Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras. His two junior coalition partners the Pasok Party and Democratic Left reject the move and have stated they will not ratify the decision in a vote in September. Opposition parties have bolted into overdrive to oppose the decision, so much so it looks like elections will be called.\n\nIt is reported that the state TV had about a 13% market share, but that is an irrelevant number to the Greek population right now given what they have gone through and are still going through with austerity.\n\nI strongly believe that had people been given a clean “Yes or No” vote to take the Euro currency,  that most of the existing 17 Eurozone single currency countries would not have the Euro as their currency. Most of the 17 member countries, Ireland and Spain are classic examples, had the adoption of the Euro single currency tied in with other Eurozone treaties so if you accepted the treaty then an automatic yes default on accepting the single currency was taken.\n\nThe Eurozone project basically if taken to 100% …removes a countries sovereignty…..a currency is the start point, then rule of law, foreign and social policies and so on.\n\nFrom the Greek people’s perspective if you look at the Eurozone project so far and what has happened to their country over the past three/four years…..the state owned TV stations are the last straw, regardless of quality etc that is now irrelevant, or, whether they watch them or not. Brussels and Frankfurt together with the IMF have emasculated the Greek people so far that they see themselves being managed from Berlin and to them that means enough is enough. They are having to live with a lot, regardless of blame or fault.....the following just a few of the day to day issues: -\n<p style=\"padding-left: 300px;\">27% unemployment (Record numbers of teenagers without employment)\nSocial Welfare payments cut\nTransport systems decimated\nDirect and Indirect taxes raised\nGovernment taxation income at it lowest rate ever causing massive social unrest\nHousing market pretty much non existent\nGovernment services cut or abolished\nHospitals under funded...real shortages of drugs for the sick and needy\nSchools under -funded.....classroom sizes now too big to give effective teaching or coaching\nGovernment and Private sector salaries and pensions cut</p>\nThis country once again is on virtually an \"All out\" strike in support of the TV staff, riots, tear gas, water cannons back on the street and petrol bombs being thrown once more at Police. The country is on a knife-edge according to the coalition partners. This is not good for a country that needs holidaymakers to come and spend money……tourism in Greece is a huge affair.\n\nThe opposition parties and coalition partners are saying that a reform of ERT should be done; carry out a re-structuring programme, but not black out the TV screens.\n\nSo, the coalition that has been fraught with friction since they joined forces looks like the ERT decision may be the one that breaks the camels back. And result in the calling for early elections.\n\nThis will be bad for the Eurozone bulls, as like most Eurozone countries the anti Eurozone vote has been growing in Greece and the market will once again be subject to fears / threats etc of Greece leaving the Eurozone. With the Greek economy still in recession, and, little or no growth prospects on the horizon the country needs elections like a hole in head.\n\nWhat happens in Greece has a knock on effect in Cyprus…it’s all been quiet there of late…so a renewed pressure on the Eurozone could be the next event that hits the trading screens. I should also point out that Italy is still rumbling along as well……another political stalemate seems to have numbed politics in Italy. The Eurozone as I keep saying has many issues bubbling under…it just needs another banking weakness and bonds will rise. Draghi could be emerging from a Frankfurt or Brussels telephone booth soon with his underpants on top of a pair of blue pantyhose with this ECB cape and mask on.  If he flies over Athens ERT won’t be reporting about it anyways!\n\nKeep your eyes on Greece this could be the catalyst that drives the EUR/USD through 1.3000 towards my year end target of 1.2\n\n&nbsp;\n\n3. <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><b>MY LONGER-TERM TRADES: </b></span>\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">EUR/USD:</span></b>\n\nI have been in this trade with a small position for three days and quite honestly I am going to bear with it as I do believe  the Eurozone is due for negative news and the USD is going to strengthen across the board. Both thoughts are EUR negative.\n<p align=\"center\"><b>EUR/USD\nShort\nEntry/Cost Average: 1.3326\nStop Loss: 1.3450\nLimit: 1.2650\nClosing Price: 1.3344\nPosition Size: 20%\nPresent Position: +18 pips.</b></p>\n<b> </b>\n\n<b> </b>\n\n<b>4. <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">LOOKING AHEAD INTO THE NEXT 5.5 DAYS OF TRADING:</span></b>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>THE MAJOR SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS:</b></p>\n<b>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3344. </b>The EUR/USD has really been caught in no man’s land for the past few days. It has threatened a breakdown and on a couple of occasions dived below 1.3300, which has been stubborn support only to pull right back up again. It has traded in the main in a very tight 1.3300 to 1.3450 range. I am hoping for a break below 1.3300, which should open up the move to sub 1.3200 at 1.3185.\n\n<b>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.5703</b>.<b> </b>This pair has remained quite strong over the past week and my flag pattern to 1.4300 and below is long gone. In fact, I think we are going to remain elevated until we test just below 1.5800 at 1.5775 again before we head lower. This level is major resistance, and, I intend to be all over this pair like a bad rash should we hit these numbers. I have a sell order at 1.5780 and again a little higher with tight-ish stops above 1.5800. The move lower should then see a re-test of the sub 1.5500 level in my opinion.\n\n<b>AUD/USD: Closing Price 0.9468. </b>My thought process on the “Aussie” is changing as the Yen domination of the markets is screwing with my fundamentals for a while. I think we need to see a top of 0.9650 before moving lower again and once again I have sell orders in position just below with stops around 0.9685 or so. The Australian economy is still in the position of requiring a weaker AUD in the currency markets so I am viewing this higher entry price to go short the AUD/USD a golden opportunity.\nFor now we are in a 0.9400 to 0.9650 range.\n\n<b>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8044. </b>Very similar to the way I view the Aussie is the way I view my next Kiwi trade. I am now of the opinion that a test of the long standing 0.8200 trend line needs to be tested before we finally play out the strength moves. I have sell orders up there with stops just above ready to take advantage of what I believe will be a great place to short. For now I think we will be well supported at 0.8000. Should we break lower…..my trade idea is dead. During the week Wheeler governor of the RBNZ still muttered about the strength of the Kiwi dollar, but I think he is going to have to come right out and play in the markets once more so that the message is really loud and clear.\n\n<b>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.9210. </b>I am not trading this pair at the moment as the Yen influence is affecting how this currency is behaving. There is a SNB (CHF) Central Bank statement this week but I do not think the attention will be other than the peg on the EUR/CHF. 0.9190 to 0.9350 seems to be the range for this pair in my eyes. It needs to break one way or the other to grab my attention.\n<b>\nUSD/CAD: Closing Price 1.0170. </b>Not a lot happening with the “Loonie” these days as far as I can see. 1.0150 to 1.0240 seems to be it’s tight range.\n<b>\nUSD/JPY: Closing Price 94.10. </b>Holy Crap………….not sure at all how to play this pair. I have made buckets of $$$ trading this pair through “scalping” this past week or so but the moves are so volatile and wild swings are the order of the day - it’s not for the faint hearted at times. We are so close to what I call the line in the sand position at 93.65. This number gives way and I think this pair has 90.00 written all over it. On the upside, I think that we have break through initially 96.00 and then 97.80- before I think the weakness in the Yen can be taken seriously again. Be extremely careful with this pair\n\n<b> </b>\n\n<b> </b>\n\n<b>5. <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">NEWS EVENTS IN THE COMING WEEK THAT INTEREST ME:</span></b>\n\nWEDNESDAY: USD – FOMC  Statement and Press Conference.\nWEDNESDAY: NZD – GDP.\nWEDNESDAY: CNY – HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMi.\n\nTHURSDAY: EUR – French and German Manufacturing PMi.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<b>6.  <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">MY FINAL THOUGHTS &amp; CLOSING COMMENTS:</span></b>\n\nNot much news coming up that really takes my fancy. That does not mean that I will not be trading.\n\nI am conscious of the fact that we are now entering the summer months, which, usually means thinner trading situations due to holidays/vacations. In fact thinking about the market turmoil that we see in particular in Asian sessions this may be due to the fact that there is always thinner trading periods prior to the London and New York sessions, hence the sometimes wild moves. We should. I believe, bear this in mind as it will only get worse in the coming weeks as vacation periods kick in.\n\nAs always trade smaller with wider stops as the roller-coaster ride of volatility is set to continue.\n\nTake care and good luck,\n\nScott Pickering\nThe Pip Accumulator\nSaturday 15th June 2013.\n\nFollow me on Twitter: <a href=\"http://www.twitter.com/pipaccumulator\">www.twitter.com/pipaccumulator</a>\nFollow me on Stock Twits: www.stocktwits.com/thepipaccumulator','AWAY FROM JAPAN....IT\'S BACK TO GREECE AGAIN TO STIR THINGS UP','','publish','open','closed','','away-from-the-japan-its-back-to-greece-again-to-stir-things-up','','','2013-06-15 15:30:11','2013-06-15 20:30:11','',0,'http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/?p=1831',0,'post','',0),(1819,1,'2013-06-08 11:09:57','2013-06-08 16:09:57','<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">1. INTRODUCTION:</span></b>\n\nQuite often I start off my blog with phrases such as “Well what a week that was” or “That was a great week for trading I hope you made some good pips”…I always end my blog by saying “Take Care” or “Good Luck” I nearly always have in my final thoughts and comments section words along the lines of “Trade small with wider stops to cope with volatility”.\n\nWhat about Thursday just gone?\n\nHoly Mother of God…talk about volatility…many people are saying the collapse of the USD longs on Thursday was in the main due to the fact the BOJ has the market one sided. The correlation of the Equity markets rising as the USD gained strength created an unbalance based upon a flawed theory that eventually something had to give. Well it did it in style on Thursday late morning after the ECB press conference had completed. That itself was a bit of non-event news wise, but the USD had started to weaken after Draghi had packed up and finished.\n\nParabolic moves across all the USD majors 250 ATR’s in minutes incredible…The last time I saw this was a couple of years ago on the fake crash, when the majors in particular the JPY pairs dropped 400 pips or so and pulled right back in 30 minutes. The pullback was not a complete reversal on Thursday but the squeezes were fast, hard and directional. I lost and made money trading as I was initially caught the wrong side.\n\nThere was so much heavy news this week it was predicted that there would be volatility, but I thought it would be limited to the AUD/USD and NZD/USD in the main with the USD/JPY still trying to find support and then possibly making a move higher again.\n\nWe got a lot more than that, some sweeping moves across all the majors, and the USD/JPY sell off, and then move higher yesterday just incredible. After Non-Farm, the USD/JPY moved up 60 pips then down 160 pips and then rallied up 250+ pips all in 3 hours.\n\nI hope those of you who trade took advantage of the volatility and weren’t caught too much the wrong side of trades that were not too painful to get the right side of.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><b>2. MY VIEW ON THE NEWS SEEN FROM MY TRADING DESK:</b></span>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>WHATEVER DRAGHI IS SMOKING…GET ME SOME OF IT!!</strong></p>\nI must be missing something. I thought that I was wide-awake for the ECB rate decision and ensuing press conference last Thursday.\n\nI thought I made reasonable notes of what was said, and, when viewing the TV coverage I once again thought that Draghi looked a little squeamish when reading his prepared statement. In the Q &amp; A at times, he looked to me as being decidedly uncomfortable. Maybe he was not on board with what Angela and Bundesbank had told him to say? He looked nervous and uneasy to me.\n\nI know that these guys want to paint a brilliant picture of achievements that they have been associated with connected with their jobs. However, Draghi’s role goes beyond this, and if he is heavily directed by Berlin he needs to take a step back and look at his position. He emphasized a little longer than usual this month about the improving economic data in the region.  This is a bit rich in my opinion; we have seen modest improvements in quite pathetic PMi data across most of the region in the past week. The underlying picture, however, is so poor it’s hard for me to comprehend how anything other than more help is required to stimulate the region. This to me can be the only course of action or option available, and the 100% focus of all parties who should make things happen, this includes Draghi and his chums at the ECB.\n\nA rate cut is the obvious method that is direct that can help all the ailing Eurozone economies, in particular, those in the south of the region and those bordering the Mediterranean, namely, Spain, Portugal, Greece and to some extent Italy, not forgetting Cyprus. Focus needs to be directed into those countries that are struggling. The whole of the Eurozone needs to be working at the same time. To me the Eurozone project just looks like a three-tier system from the Agricultural revolution, but instead of fields being sectioned we are looking at countries. Allegedly, the Eurozone is one country one vote.....hmmmn...how does that work with Germany?  Oh yes, I remember they run the Eurozone like a region similar to Bavaria. The only difference - they all talk a bit funny!\n\nAll of the named countries above have most of the following issues: -\n<ul>\n	<li>There are record figures of high unemployment. In particular record numbers of young people not able to find employment.</li>\n	<li>The banking sector causes many concerns over being under-funded. If a bank stress test took place tomorrow in Europe, instead of the “wishy-washy” affairs of late, a true test, how many of the struggling countries banks do you think would be capitalized sufficiently?</li>\n	<li>A depressed housing sector with high levels of mortgage arrears and defaults. This places a further burden on banks and I really wonder are the true levels of bad and doubtful debts being reflected.</li>\n	<li>Social Welfare costs rising due to high unemployment.</li>\n	<li>There are sooooooo many issues of social welfare etc,. Both health and education departments suffer intensely as cutbacks due to lack of cash available to Finance Ministers bite. This is due primarily to a lack of income in taxes, as people are not working, and families cut back on spending. Both direct and in-direct taxes are producing less revenue for governments to spend, even in key areas.</li>\n</ul>\nBoth Spanish and Italian Manufacturing PMi’s improved but both are still below the key 50 level (recession/growth) Spain 48.1 and Italy 47.3. Services PMi were a little different, the Spanish improved to 47.3 and Italian services PMi actually dropped to 46.5.\n\nPlease don\'t called me a “kill–joy”, but let’s face facts, it’s stimulus to promote growth which is required in the Eurozone, not a pat on the back to say that we hope to see a gradual recovery in 2013…this is bulls**t. It’s all a game, one-minute growth and inflation targets are reduced, and then these new numbers are talked about as a beat if they are achieved a few months later.Recently the ECB cut their growth and inflation objectives, but they raised the GDP forecast for 2014. Now they are predicting the Eurozone economy to contract in 2013 by -0.6%, previously -0.4%. They expect GDP growth next year to hit 1.1% instead of 1.0%...crack open the Bollinger!!\n\nHowever, the outlook remains to the downside because of reforms, they do however hope that exports and monetary policy will be the key drivers of the area moving forward. I get it, but tell this to the thousands and thousands of people waiting in unemployment lines for benefits, trying to keep their house around them and children fed. It’s not that good Mr. Draghi, I believe you are not pushing the politicians to act correctly to ensure your schemes to support the Eurozone financially are being utilised properly.\n\nSuch a shame, but it is so Eurozone. There is no harmony in approach, there is no pulling together to ensure core strength and total unity in direction. I have said it on many occasions before that I believe the Eurozone project introduced by Germany and France, whilst a brilliant conceptual idea in principle, it is totally flawed because there are 19 different countries with differing needs, differing cultures, different wants and totally different mentalities.......all using the same cheque book.....come on...give me a feck**g break and smell the coffee!!\n\nOnwards and upwards, moving on, as Fx traders,  given what happened on the squeeze Thursday and after yesterdays Non-Farm payrolls, next week is another opportunity.\n\nWithout doubt the EUR/USD looks tasty for short up around 1.3280 – 1.3340. However, we are caught in the middle of quite a range at the moment so be careful, the range being 1.3150 to 1.3340. We are towards the lower end closing yesterday at 1.3215. Fundamentally, all is not well in the Eurozone.  There are so many cans kicked down the road, we need “Waste Management” to come and collect them!!\n\nI would personally wait until Monday and let the Asian and European Monday trading pass by before getting stuck in once again. I think given the underlying volatility that is around, let the market try to settle and get directional again.\n\nI am still a USD long trader at the moment. Without doubt Thursday’s squeeze should have balanced the Fx trading balances somewhat. Longer-term, before the year-end, I still see the EUR/USD much lower, sub 1.2650.\n\nPatience is what is required. Remember, the Eurozone, is one calamity after the next and there is so much bubbling just under the surface right now, just give it a little time.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><b>3. MY LONGER-TERM TRADES:</b></span>\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>NZD/USD:</strong></span>\n\nI did not tweet this entry yesterday after Non-Farm payrolls.  The break of 0.7900 was a very key level; previously 0.7925 had been holding this pair. A close yesterday below 0.7900, makes the outlook for this pair very bearish.\n\nGiven that the RBNZ has intervened directly in the Fx market to weaken this pair and the fact that there is a RBNZ Rate Statement and Press Conference this week, this added to my decision to enter and hold.\n0.7500 is my initial target. I feel this pair could have 0.7000 written all over it soon, although I will be looking for guidance from RBNZ governor Wheeler on this point, I think an orderly decline towards somewhere between 0.7500 and 0.7000 may be their target.\n<p align=\"center\"><b>NZD/USD\nShort\nEntry/Cost Average: 0.7935\nStop Loss: 0.8050\nLimit: 0.7500\nClosing Price:\nPosition Size: 40%\nPresent Position: +52 pips.</b></p>\n<b> </b>\n\n<b> </b>\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><b>4. LOOKING AHEAD INTO THE NEXT 5.5 DAYS OF TRADING:</b></span>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>THE MAJOR SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS:</b></p>\n<b>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3215. </b>We are caught in the middle of quite a range 1.3150 to 1.3340. Personally, I would wait for a move out before entering a trade, or, alternatively my preference would be to establish a short position around 1.3300.\n\n<b>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.5552. </b>What a wild ride this pair has been on over the past two days. I think we are pretty much caught dead centre of a range 1.5500 to 1.5600. Wait for a confirmed directional breakout.<b> </b>\n\n<b>AUD/USD: Closing Price 0.9493. </b>There was a good bounce off the lows yesterday but the downside pressure still remains intact. 0.9400 now looks like the next support to break through. Resistance is at 0.9600.<b> </b>\n\n<b>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.7878. </b>We closed below the key 0.7900 level, I think this pair for reasons already mentioned before in the blog is heading much lower and the support to weaken this currency from the RBNZ should not go unnoticed. Like the Aussie we bounced a little from the lows but I think 0.7800 will be not too far away maybe even overnight Sunday into Monday this week. Resistance should be at 0.7925 then 0.7950.\n\n<b>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.9357. </b>I have not been following this pair much over the past few days.  Yesterday morning, I made a note in my trading log to watch the levels 0.9200 to 0.9400 for breakouts. We almost broke out to the high side yesterday but not quite I recall highs of around 0.9375 or so.\n\n<b>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.0193. </b>Some great numbers on Canadian jobs strengthened the CAD yesterday and pushed the pair below 1.0200. I think we are now back in the following range 1.1050 to 1.0240. We need a break to give us a clue of what the next move is going to be. I would use this pair next week as your guide on how the USD is going to perform. This is a good/lead indicator to use. Normally, I would say watch the AUD/USD but that pair is on a one way track lower, so at this stage the CAD should provide better guidance.\n\n<b>USD/JPY: Closing Price 97.51. </b>This pair has been like a “Six Flags” roller coaster over the past week. I really do not know how to play this pair as it’s all over the map. Moves of 200+ pips a day one way then the other. It is a big range on my charts 96.20 to 99.00. Good luck with this one!\n\n&nbsp;\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><b>5. NEWS EVENTS IN THE COMING WEEK THAT INTEREST ME:</b></span>\n\nMONDAY: JPY - Monetary Policy Statement\nTUESDAY: JPY – BOJ Press Conference\n\nWEDNESDAY: GBP – Claimant Count changes (Unemployment numbers)\nWEDNESDAY: NZD – Cash Rate, RBNZ Press Conference and Rate Statement.\nWEDNESDAY: AUD – Employment Change and Unemployment Rate.\n\nTHURSDAY: USD – Core Retail Sales.\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><b>6. FINAL THOUGHTS &amp; CLOSING COMMENTS:</b></span>\n\nSo looking ahead, maybe not as full as last week on the news front, but I still think that there may be some unfinished business lurking in the JPY pairs. This means that we should always trade smaller with wider stops and protect ourselves as traders.\n\nI am expecting pressure to continue to the downside with the AUD/USD and NZD/USD and these pairs will be the main focus of my attention in the coming days, hopefully weeks.\n\nTake care and good luck,\n\nScott Pickering\nThe Pip Accumulator\nSaturday 8th June 2013.\n\n&nbsp;','WHATEVER DRAGHI IS SMOKING...GET ME SOME OF IT!!','','publish','open','closed','','whatever-draghi-is-smoking-get-me-some-of-it','','','2013-06-08 11:09:57','2013-06-08 16:09:57','',0,'http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/?p=1819',0,'post','',0),(1784,1,'2013-06-01 17:40:04','2013-06-01 22:40:04','<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>1. INTRODUCTION:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nFive positive trading days in the past week so I cannot complain. I am seeing sentiment turning bearish in equities and the bullish comments that were so in your face appear to have crawled under rocks!\r\n\r\nI have been focused primarily on the AUD/USD and NZD/USD all week, in particular the latter since breaking below the 0.8200 trend line. This was the biggest piece of news for me last week…what a sad life!\r\n\r\nAs I have said soooooo many times, the commodity currencies lead the way and the Aussie in particular has been doing this. Interventions in ALL markets are now an everyday occurrence. Fundamentals are still important and often lead the way with sentiment the way it is, but right now the Fib. levels are guiding me more than ever….take note.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>2. MY VIEW ON THE NEWS SEEN FROM MY TRADING DESK:</strong></span>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">A BIG WEEK… &amp; A BIG MONTH AHEAD FOR USD, FED, BOJ, RBA, BOE, RBNZ &amp; ECB...GET IN YOUR SUPPLIES OF NESPRESSO RISTRETTO...NOW!</span></strong></p>\r\nAn often used daily phrase used to be “Another week, Another dollar”, or as we are now seeing “Another week, another \"King\" dollar”. Certainly the rise of the USD has taken many people by surprise. It shouldn\'t, but it has.\r\n\r\nAt times of ultimate extremes, it is the currency that people turn to,  along with precious metals such as Gold, but, now that Gold is really being seen for what it is, following all the immense QE (Quantitive Easing / Asset Purchase Facilities) policies being forwarded by many leading Central Banks, Gold is on a decline. Gold, I believe consolidating around the present levels c.$1350-$1425 before heading for $1,100 in the next leg lower.\r\n\r\nAre we at times of ultimate extreme ?....no I suppose not, but we are in unchartered territory regarding the current and future effects of Central Bank currency manipulation whether directly by the SNB or RBNZ or through the back door as a covert operation like the BOJ, FED, BOC, BOE and the ECB. We are in a currency war, do not listen to crap communiques and bulls**t press releases from the Central Banks and their respective Governments.\r\n\r\nSo, as traders, listen up.... unchartered territories = uncertainty, uncertainty = fear....and....fear = nearly on every single occasion a run to the USD.\r\n\r\nRight now, Japan is sending fear across the waters......the volatility in the Nikkei and subsequent wild moves in JPY pairs is sending a message. The message is fear...look at all the QE that Kuroda and Abe are throwing into the Japanese economy, they are trying to move 20 years or so of deflation out of the economy. A very, very ambitious and bold move, but its stalling, and traders in all markets are puzzled, almost twice as much stimulus as that supplied by the FED to the U.S. markets and it\'s not going to plan.\r\n\r\nCould the U.S. equity markets now stall? Read my previous blogs, I have talked about it regularly for the past six months. The U.S. equity markets are now very range bound and chart wise look like a break lower could happen with a cataylist...could that be Japan?  If the USD continues to strengthen the equity markets will eventually break lower no matter what BEN and the FED do...it\'s just a question of time and then a question of how far.\r\n\r\nCould it be the ECB, who now need to get off the fence, extract the digit from their asses and actually support a policy that will help the entire region to grow other than the present German support policies that have created a two-tier Eurozone? If Draghi can actually convince Merkel and the Bundesbank that stimulus must be focussed towards the Mediterranean, this could be seen two ways by the markets, EUR positive as it could be taken as aggressive pro-activity, or because they are so late to the party EUR negative as it could be viewed  as \"Too little too late\".\r\n\r\nThe spanner (wrench) in the works for ECB policy could be the Bank of Italy’s governor and member of ECB Governing Council, Ignazio Visco, who has called for the ECB to produce a further rate cut this Thursday. It will be interesting to see if this carries any more weight as we approach Thursday’s decision date. But this is further evidence that finally there are calls for the tough ECB stance to actually become accommodative to help faltering economies,  help stimulate growth and reduce the regions masses of growing unemployment. Should a rate cut happen….this would be EUR negative and it would strengthen the USD.\r\n\r\nThis week, we also have an interest rate decision from the RBA. I am not expecting a cut even though the Australian government has stated in several different reports and press releases that they view the Aussie dollar over-valued given economic conditions in Australia. The AUD/USD has fallen 600-700 pips recently and is showing signs of being well oversold right now, I would expect a period of consolidation. For this reason I think the RBA may hold off a month, but you just never know. The overall government policy is to weaken the currency, therefore “not if but when” will rates be cut.  This policy is obviously AUD negative and as a result the USD will strengthen.\r\n\r\nIn New Zealand,  the government there will follow Australian policies very closely, they too have stated publicly through the RBNZ governor Wheeler that the Kiwi is over-valued. No “Namby-Pamby” approach here from Wheeler with QE….. It’s full on “We have intervened in Fx markets to weaken the Kiwi dollar”  You have just got to love Wheeler, from a slow start he’s really got his teeth into his job now. Weakening the Kiwi will also strengthen the USD.\r\n\r\nFor the UK, which also has an interest rate decision and Asset Purchase Facility review (QE for the Brits!!)  on Thursday this week, the outlook is not good. Mark Carney (I need too find a nickname for him) the new governor needs to get his feet under the table before we see policies changing/amending. Merv “The swerve” King is in his own exit strategy right now of “Champagne and Cigars” as he hands over the reigns to Carney. He has completed his last swan song meeting in front of the parliamentary select committee and is in \"party mode\".\r\n\r\nThe UK economy however has bu**er all to be in party mode over. The recent glimmer or snapshot of what could have been seen as mildly positive economic data has gone. The simple fact is the UK economy is down the toilet. Carney is rumoured to be given a wider mandate with more FED like responsibilities. Watch this space to see what falls out. In any event, the UK needs stimulus that will be GBP negative and once again as a result the USD will strengthen.\r\n\r\nAre you seeing the picture that I am painting here?\r\n\r\nWorld uncertainty and need for stimulus is still there despite what has been done so far since 2008. Now I am not saying that everything in the U.S. is rosy….far from it. The U.S. would have GDP at 4% and above if it was that perfect as we are led to believe on some occasions. The U.S. is winning the less ugly competition at the moment but there are snapshots of positivity being seen. Hence all the “Tapering” talk……who would want to be Ben Bernanke?\r\n\r\nBen (the most powerful man in the world) Bernanke will no doubt have a twitching bottom this week as we await the Non Farm payroll numbers on Friday. Good numbers and you can bet the likes of CNBC will have so called experts on the channel giving out whisper numbers and initial targets from which tapering will start. CNBC will NOT be able to stop themselves. I URGE YOU…...pay zero attention. This has never been done before, no-one but no-one has a f****g clue what is going to happen as a result of tapering and no –one has a f*****g clue of the knock on effects in the world equity markets. I believe a coordinated release of some sort may be required to steady matters but then what do I know, I am just guessing. No-one knows how, what, when or the effects.\r\n\r\nAs stated before, and I will state it again the result of the tapering and uncertainty surrounding it is a move to strengthen the USD.\r\n\r\nOn Friday if the NFP numbers are good (forget about the fact that people may have just given up looking for work and fallen out of the numbers calculation). If the number is good and the rate of unemployment drops towards 7% away from the current 7.5%, there will be volatility and lots of it. Even though the FED has said at 6.5% QE ends, the whisper numbers will be out there.\r\n\r\nAs traders what does all this mean moving forward?\r\n\r\nI believe that with Central Bank policies throughout the world and the U.S. economy improving the USD will offer us a plethora of pips to make profits from.\r\n\r\nI place below four monthly charts, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD showing where the key levels are in my eyes and the major Fibonacci levels of the big moves looking forward. The target numbers are quite some way away but if the USD gets moving nothing stops it.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/EURUSD-M-010613.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1800\" alt=\"EURUSD M 010613\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/EURUSD-M-010613.png\" width=\"660\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/GBPUSD-M-010613.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1801\" alt=\"GBPUSD M 010613\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/GBPUSD-M-010613.png\" width=\"660\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/AUDUSD-M-010613.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1799\" alt=\"AUDUSD M 010613\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/AUDUSD-M-010613.png\" width=\"660\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/NZDUSD-M-010613.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1802\" alt=\"NZDUSD M 010613\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/NZDUSD-M-010613.png\" width=\"660\"  /></a>\r\n\r\nRemember back in 2008, the AUD/USD and GBP/USD would move 800 pips a day some days due to the volatility that was around at that time. I am not saying we are going to return to that, but, what I do think will happen is that we will get an extended period of USD strength that will allow us to make $$$ in a directional market. It will not be straight down, there will be stop off points but it will be directional.\r\n\r\nThis is not a time to pick tops and bottoms. With what is ahead there will no doubt be false breakouts as markets come to terms with what is happening and I would not be surprised to see a 15-20% correction in equities as a result.\r\n\r\nThe moves in the Forex market will be large moves. I am targeting in the next six months as follows if my thoughts come to fruition.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">EUR/USD: 1.1865\r\nGBP/USD: 1.3920\r\nAUD/USD: 0.8540\r\nNZD/USD: 0.6860\r\nUSD/CAD: 1.1280\r\nUSD/CHF: 1.0850\r\nUSD/JPY: Being honest ….This one is difficult, I haven’t got a clue how this pair will react, I am thinking back to 90.00, but I am not sure.</p>\r\nIn any event, the next week is big…the next month or so, even bigger get your supplies of Nespresso (#10 strength) Ristretto  in stock as you are going to need it with all the late night/early morning opportunities ahead.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>3. MY LONGER-TERM TRADES:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nAt the end of last week I exited trades, re-entered trades and then decided that I needed core positions going ahead so I started establishing positions in four currencies. I have taken profits, added back to positions, the usual stuff, as I trade within my trading plan and financial management strategies.\r\n\r\nI will tweet my actions as I go forward with these trades and any others that I may add.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>EUR/USD</strong>\r\n<strong> Short</strong>\r\n<strong> Closing Price: 1.2995</strong>\r\n<strong> Cost Average: 1.2975</strong>\r\n<strong> Stop: 1.3225</strong>\r\n<strong> Initial Limit: 1.2360</strong>\r\n<strong> Position Size: 20%</strong>\r\n<strong> Present Position -22 pips</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong> GBP/USD</strong>\r\n<strong> Short</strong>\r\n<strong> Closing Price: 1.5197</strong>\r\n<strong> Cost Average: 1.5176</strong>\r\n<strong> Stop: 1.5280</strong>\r\n<strong> Initial Limit: 1.4300</strong>\r\n<strong> Position Size: 20%</strong>\r\n<strong> Present Position: -24 pips</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>AUD/USD</strong>\r\n<strong> Short</strong>\r\n<strong> Closing Price: 0.9570</strong>\r\n<strong> Cost Average: 0.9598</strong>\r\n<strong> Stop: 0.9750</strong>\r\n<strong> Initial Limit: 0.8750</strong>\r\n<strong> Position Size: 20%</strong>\r\n<strong> Present Position: +26 pips</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>NZD/USD</strong>\r\n<strong> Short</strong>\r\n<strong> Closing Price: 0.7937</strong>\r\n<strong> Cost Average: 0.7972</strong>\r\n<strong> Stop: 0.8050</strong>\r\n<strong> Initial Limit: 0.7150</strong>\r\n<strong> Position Size: 40%</strong>\r\n<strong> Present Position: +33 pips</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong> </strong></p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>4. LOOKING AHEAD INTO THE NEXT 5.5 DAYS OF TRADING:</strong></span>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>THE MAJOR SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS:</strong></span></p>\r\n<strong>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.2995.</strong>  Initial support lies at 1.2935, but beneath here lies 1.2750, which I consider to be an important level. Resistance is good at 1.3075, after here the May 8<sup>th</sup> high of 1.3194.\r\n\r\n<strong>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.5197</strong>.  Resistance is good at 1.5240. Support is obviously massive at 1.5000. Between here and there 1.5110 should offer some support on the way lower.\r\n\r\n<strong>AUD/USD: Closing Price 0.9570.</strong> Resistance should be good at 0.9725, which is the 61.8% retracement of the sell-off since May. Support initially at 0.9530 and below there 0.9450.\r\n\r\n<strong>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.7937</strong>. Now that we are below 0.8000 we are in a real down trending move. 0.7880 and 0.7850 are good moving forward as support and resistance at 0.8010 will be good if we break higher. Obviously the trend line resistance at 0.8200 is massive but it’s well in the background for me now.\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.9549</strong>.  This pair is acting a little strange because of the market uncertainty. I am avoiding it but there are some interesting levels as I look at the charts.  0.9525 tests the 38% retracement of the February-May move upwards and if this support gives way 0.9430 is next in line as support. Resistance is 0.9680.\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.0373.</strong>  There is big support at 1.0265 and resistance is 1.0460 then 1.0525.\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/JPY: Closing Price 100.47</strong>. I see this pair heading lower in the short term at least. 100.00 will be a biggie then its really 99.60 and then 98.60 as support levels. If we break higher, 101.50, 102.10, 103.75 and 105.60 are the notes I have. This pair I am struggling with at the moment and along with the USD/CHF I am avoiding.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>5. NEWS EVENTS IN THE COMING WEEK THAT INTEREST ME:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nMONDAY: GBP – Manufacturing PMi.\r\nMONDAY: USD – ISM Manufacturing PMi.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: AUD – Interest Rate decision and Rate statement by RBA\r\nTUESDAY: GBP – Construction PMi.\r\nTUESDAY: AUD – GDP.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: GBP – Services PMi.\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – ADP Non Farm Payroll &amp; ISM Non-Manufacturing PMi.\r\nWEDNESDAY: AUD – Trade Balance.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: GBP – BOE Interest Rate decision &amp; Asset Purchase Facility.\r\nTHURSDAY: ECB – Interest Rate decision &amp; Press Conference.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: CAD – Unemployment Numbers and Unemployment Rate.\r\nFRIDAY: USD – Non-Farm Payrolls &amp; Unemployment Rate.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>6. FINAL THOUGHTS &amp; CLOSING COMMENTS:</strong></span>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nA big week ahead for news and the markets are going to be extremely nervous. The numbers this week will direct sentiment moving forward.\r\n\r\nTrade with smaller positions and use wider stops to allow for the volatility. Do not trade for the sake of trading. Staying in cash can be a good trade!!\r\n\r\nUse your trading plans and exercise good money management principles. Do not over extend yourself.\r\n\r\nGood Luck,\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nSaturday 1<sup>st</sup> June 2013.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','BIG WEEK...& A BIG MONTH AHEAD FOR USD,FED, BOJ, RBA, BOE, RBNZ & ECB...GET IN YOUR SUPPLIES OF NESPRESSO RISTRETTO...NOW!','','publish','open','closed','','big-week-ahead-for-usdfed-ecb-get-in-your-supplies-of-nespresso-ristretto-now','','','2014-01-20 13:28:38','2014-01-20 18:28:38','',0,'http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/?p=1784',0,'post','',0),(1746,1,'2013-05-25 12:14:12','2013-05-25 17:14:12','<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>1. INTRODUCTION:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nI am now back home after a short vacation in Prince Edward Island.\r\n\r\nI have not been active on Twitter these past two weeks or so, I apologise for this..... I will get \"back in the saddle\" next week. Even though away for a short holiday, I took my laptop and traded whilst away. This month has been a great trading month with most of my profits emanating from the AUD/USD and NZD/USD short. I hope, if you trade you had the same success.\r\n\r\nLooking back over 2013 so far, we have had three great trading opportunities so far that have lasted a week or so to maximise. Initially, we had the USD/JPY that in real terms has been moving since about October/November last year and now I think we are about as far as we will go given that I believe the long equity bull run is now stalling and I believe I could argue is starting to pullback. Secondly, we had the GBP/USD 1,000 pip drop in January and February. Get ready, this pair, after a very shallow pullback is now ready to drop even further. The final trade is the AUD/USD, which dropped from about 1.0500 to 0.9600 (900 pips) over April and May so far. With both the GBP/USD and AUD/USD I believe these will be major short trades over the next two/three months with huge profit opportunities up for grabs. I will expand on these thoughts later in the blog and add in charts to show the levels in more detail.\r\n\r\nWhilst I am bullish the USD.......\"Never fight the FED\" should always be in your thoughts as Ben and his team are supporting the stock market to the tune of $85 Billion per month. As I have written about several times, I do believe eventually the market will tire of the effects of quantitive easing, and I think we are almost there. In addition, the \"Buy the Dip\" mentality in the equity markets is starting to get many traders a little nervous given the commodity sell off. Whilst this sell off  at the moment is primarily in commodity currencies, look at Holy Trinity of commodities  (Gold, Oil and Copper) they are not exactly setting computer screens alight with multiple green lights, hence the nervousness, it may not be a \"buy on the dip\" opportunity - it may actually be a downward trend that is formulating .Continual low interest rates are eating away...next it\'s going to be deflation rather than inflation. Watch this space.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>2. THE MARKET OVERVIEW FROM MY DESK:</strong></span>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>\"TAPERING\" IS JUST ANOTHER WORD....ARE YOU DROWNING IN CENTRAL BANK LIQUIDITY?</strong></p>\r\nI go away for a few days and in the main I trade from my charts with little fundamental news getting through to me. I return home and in the first hour or so of watching CNBC or listening to Bloomberg Radio a new word has entered my world.......\"Tapering\". Holy Mother of God, not happy with starting the rush to weaken your currency, the FED or rather Ben is creating a new trading dictionary word by word. So as I see it, as the FED begins to end its $85 Billion monthly support, the markets will be weaned off the monthly support level by \"Tapering\".\r\n\r\nIf you are new to trading currencies you must be totally confused at the moment. It is such a false marketplace; there has been little two-way action. Data releases whether \"Good news or Bad news\" means nothing. Markets just keep rising as the Central banks continue to support equities. \"Good news\" means good for markets and \"Bad news\" means more support which also means its \"Good news\" for markets as the fear of removing support could cause panic selling. Most Central Banks......FED, BOJ, BOE, SNB, RBNZ and ECB are all to differing levels employing a form of easing / asset / bond purchases to weaken their currencies and this intervention looks like it is going to be with us for some time yet. The FED will lead us out of this mess via \"Tapering\" just as Ben led us here via his helicopter dropping waddies of cash into Wall Street.\r\n\r\nSo how do we trade around this false environment?\r\n\r\nFirstly.....it is what it is...it\'s not really false it is something that we as traders have to get used to and accommodate in our trading day regardless of what type of trader you think you are.\r\n\r\nAs mentioned many Central banks are easing or directly intervening in the currency markets. I have written on many occasions that drowning in liquidity is soon to be a common occurrence and we are now on a merry-go-round that is circling faster and faster making it impossible to stop it never mind get off it!\r\n\r\nLet me start with the ECB..... Super Mario has pledged to do \"Whatever it takes\" to keep the single currency alive...I don\'t think he thought that the Eurozone recession would bite the way it has the slowdown reaching into Germany. The latest GDP data shows the region in recession and for the Mediterranean countries of the Eurozone they will be in recession for years to come. The outlook for economies in the Eurozone is poor and further easing is required to help...this will be negative for the Euro but positive for the USD.\r\n\r\nThe Bank of Japan (BOJ), Kuroda as head of BOJ and Prime Minister Abe want to weaken the JPY and at all costs create a bit of inflation...a target of 2% has been set. The start of a pullback in US equities is weighing heavily on all JPY pairs and we have seen huge volatility in YEN pairs as they struggle to cope with the market swings. The JGB bond market is also volatile. The BOJ is not buying government bonds.... yet, well they may be, but they are not buying directly in the market. The Bond market is spinning around and adding to the volatility. Up to now the BOJ has been vocal, but verbal intervention can only take you so far. Both Abe and Kuroda to keep the G7 and G20 sweet have stated that they are only interested in tackling deflation and that currency exchange rates and stock market values are not in their interest.... bulls**t.  However if the volatility continues more than verbal intervention will be required.\r\n\r\nThen we have the \"Daddy\" of them all the FED. Bernanke was in Washington last week under scrutiny from one of the many senate committees that love to question him over his actions (talk about the pot calling the kettle black…if only the American people had the same TV coverage to Q&amp;A their elected representatives over their ineptness in doing anything in Washington other than call the party line!).  During the Q&amp;A when pressed about the exit strategy of the existing $85 billion per month QE programme, Ben brought up the matter of tapering and at the same time re-iterated the unemployment target rate of 6.5%. The markets fresh from hearing other FOMC committee members in the past few days voice their differing opinions on the exit strategy and of what tapering could and could not do ignored much of Bernanke\'s comments and only  heard.... \' tapering…. tapering…tapering…and, exits…exits…exits\'. God love them; the fear of the end of “Buy the dip”…let’s “Buy the dip” must have hit then hard. Equities began to sell off as the fear finally struck home that the Fed were actually already discussing ending, or at least reducing the amount of QE per month.\r\n\r\nTop tip…buy, buy, buy….”Depends”, “Andrex”, “Scotties”, “Cushion Soft”, \"Charmin Ultra\" or whatever is sold in your area. There will be a new kind of run on Wall Street!!\r\n\r\nSo, the markets as usual heard what they wanted. Ben talked it both ways. U.S. data is in essence winning the less ugly competition on the worldwide economic stage right now, but let’s face facts, the GDP numbers do not in any way shape or form reflect this confidence. They are still well below par, and the recovery talked about is still fragile, hence Ben’s two way discussion on the hill to the committee.\r\n\r\nIf Japan ups the anti…what do you think the FED is going to do?\r\n\r\nNext, let me write briefly about the UK.\r\n\r\nRecent data released up to this past week has been improving,  perhaps  indicating  the doom and gloom merchants were maybe a little too harsh.  However, the past week’s data on Retail Sales would have put the cat amongst the pigeons somewhat, as it was weaker than expected, maybe a reality check needs to take place. The PMi data at the beginning of the month may not after all be the Holy Grail for the UK economy.\r\nIn addition, we have “Merve The Swerve” King leaving the BOE in July and the very Conservative incoming new BOE Governor Mark Carney stepping into his shoes. How eager will Carney be to add to the UK asset purchase facility (QE), or rather get the UK back on track again? I hardly think \"Tapering\"  will feature in Carney\'s vocabulary for some time yet!\r\n\r\nFinally, little New Zealand the smallest of the majors…. has been directly intervening in the foreign exchange markets to weaken the Kiwi. No QE programme for them…just straight in no messing about!!\r\n\r\nWhat I am trying to point out as briefly as possible is that most of the major world\'s central banks are playing in the markets and we have a very, very false picture of basically everything financial.\r\n\r\nWhilst an individual country\'s Central Bank intervention is primarily aimed locally, because of the fact so many Central Bank\'s are adopting similar policies and all markets are now so intertwined it is very difficult for an individual Central Bank to achieve 100% of it\'s goal. We are reliant on something that is very difficult to stop, as the solution appears to be more easing,  and more intervention to try and stay ahead. To simply say STOP...is not that simple. This style of intervention has never been carried out by so many Central Bank\'s at the same time. We are on a merry go round or roller coaster on it\'s way down a large fall. This has never been done before and no one at all, absolutely no one without question has any idea what the market reaction will be, when one Central Bank stops first. If it was a coordinated stop by all Banks, then  God only know what would happen.\r\n\r\nOn the immediate horizon, you can bet your bottom dollar that Asian countries are ready to move if Japan steps up and away from verbal intervention in the next week or so, this action will have a knock on effect all over. The merry go round increases speed and the cycle starts up again, as everyone tries to squeeze an edge over someone.\r\n\r\nSo, as traders we are “Drowning in all this liquidity’ What are my thoughts?\r\n\r\nI am thinking bet on the USD. There are more US dollars than other currency in the world.  It is the dominant force and as the FED winds back, U.S. equities will follow and the USD will strengthen across all pairs.\r\n\r\nLooking at all the USD majors, most of them have charting patterns starting to become more and more obvious as the FED “Tapers”: -\r\n\r\nEUR/USD: Head and Shoulder pattern on a break below 1.2820, sets up a move towards 1.2635. In my opinion we are in a very long term down channel and sub 1.2000 is on the cards for me, maybe even a test of 1.1860.\r\n\r\nGBP/USD: There is already a bear flag formation in play targeting 1.4100.\r\n\r\nAUD/USD: The government has made it clear that the Aussie is way too strong. Most pundits are calling for 0.9000, some back to real low…. lows of 0.6000.\r\n\r\nNZD/USD: The RBNZ is already playing “Footsie” direct with foreign exchange. A break below the key level of 0.8000 sets up 0.7400 very quickly. If the Aussie does slip through 0.9000, the Kiwi could slip to 0.7000 and then my Armageddon number of 0.6500 is in view!!\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF: The SNB (Jordan) is rumored to be thinking of raising the peg in the EUR/CHF from 1.2000 to 1.2500.  We now trade in the region of  1.2500 without him openly stating a new floor, it makes you wonder. This has a knock effect in all CHF pairs. The EUR/USD directly affects the USD/CHF exchange rate as they are inverted for the most time.  Should the EUR/USD break below 1.2635, this should place the USD/CHF back above parity. Should this happen momentum will target 1.0500 pretty quickly.\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD: The most annoying USD major pair in my opinion. It is ready to surge. I think 1.1000 is back on the cards with USD strength deployed.\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY: I hate saying this…. but I am not too sure how this would react to a massive reversal in the US$ index given all the easing that Abe and Kuroda have at their disposal, as we will have a large pull back in equities, which historically all the YEN pairs have mirrored. Maybe the big disconnect will be coming, who knows. I do however see a possible re-test of 100.00 in the exchange rate, before any move higher should be confirmed.\r\n\r\nA week or so ago, I would have said 105.00 for sure and possibly 110.00 by the end of 2013\r\n\r\nBasically, chin up…no drowning…capitalize on the opportunities. You do not need to pick bottoms or tops, there should be 1,000’s of pips available.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>3. MY LONGER TERM POSITION TRADES:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nI currently have none. I exited most positions on Thursday last week and I am looking and waiting patiently for pullbacks to re-enter.\r\n\r\nI will definitely tweet my entries as they happen.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>4. LOOKING AHEAD; WHAT ARE THE KEY SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS IN THE USD MAJORS THAT INTEREST ME:</strong></span>\r\n\r\n<strong>EUR/USD: Closing Price1.2931.</strong> Big support lies at 1.2797, which was the most recent low. Upside resistance is at 1.3025, beyond there 1.3250 a bit away but a great shorting level if we could ever get  there…I doubt that we will.\r\n\r\n<strong>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.5125</strong>. Obviously there are going be stops in huge form below but 1.5000. We got as low last week as 1.5014. I think we are heading lower. After 1.5000, which, in my opinion is inevitable 1.4830 the recent March low comes into sight. My chart shows the bear flag to 1.4100. The upside resistance is at 1.5175 then 1.5320, the recent high.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/GBPUSD-W-25052013.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1770\" alt=\"GBPUSD W 25052013\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/GBPUSD-W-25052013.png\" width=\"660\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>AUD/USD: Closing Price 0.9652</strong>. We are trading so close to a major breakdown, or should I say meltdown! 0.9580 is critical support from last month. A break through here it’s bye bye Gracie goodnight one and all…or should that be Sheila? October lows in 2011 are just below 0.9400. This would be an obvious target after 0.9580. Upside resistance is at 0.9780 and then a big level of resistance is at 0.9850.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/AUDUSD-M-25052013.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1769\" alt=\"AUDUSD M 25052013\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/AUDUSD-M-25052013.png\" width=\"660\"/></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8091.</strong> Big levels are 0.8000 to 0.8250\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.9612.</strong> A big sell off at the end of last week but I am still bullish this pair. Support is at 0.9540 and initial resistance 0.9740 and 0.9840.\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.0317.</strong> A break above 1.0340 sets up 1.0450 the June 2012 high. I think we should see much higher levels though. Last Monday’s low of 1.0210 is support.\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/JPY: Closing Price 101.28</strong>. I am hesitant on this pair. I do think that we may re-test support at 100.00 going forward or just below at 99.60 (the 62.8% Fib. retracement of this month’s move). Last week’s high of 103.74 looks a long way away at the moment, but this is the range to watch.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>5. MAJOR NEWS AND DATA EVENTS THAT INTEREST ME IN THE COMING WEEK:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: JPY - KURODA SPEAKS\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: CAD – BOC INTEREST RATE STATEMENT\r\nWEDNESDAY: AUD - BUILDING APPROVALS &amp; CAP. EXP.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: USD – PRELIMINARY GDP\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>6. FINAL THOUGHTS &amp; COMMENTS:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nAs usual trade easy out there and do not get too carried away. I really believe we will have some great opportunities ahead to make some great pips on some major moves.\r\n\r\nWe need to be patient for all the “ducks” to get in a row. I think we will be able to make, store and bank profits for a while should the USD take control. We do not need to be heroes picking tops and bottoms, there are 1,000’s of pips available if the move takes hold. Establishing core positions will be key, but patience and working with good money management disciplines critical for success.\r\n\r\nWork within your trading plan at all times.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nSaturday 25<sup>th</sup> May 2013.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','\"TAPERING\" IS JUST ANOTHER WORD....ARE YOU DROWNING IN CENTRAL BANK LIQUIDITY?','','publish','open','closed','','b','','','2014-01-20 13:36:21','2014-01-20 18:36:21','',0,'http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/?p=1746',0,'post','',0),(1721,1,'2013-05-11 13:56:02','2013-05-11 18:56:02','&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>1. INTRODUCTION:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nI hope that all you guys had a successful week of trading. There were certainly directional opportunities for all of us to profit from at the end of the week. Last week was my best week\'s trading year to date....thank God....because I was getting bored and I mean bored with the market. I was thinking of calling it an early close for the summer and taking an extended break.\r\n\r\nLots of pieces have been written about the dramatic moves seen over the last few days,  but really it was just a continuation of what was already developing in the markets. The inter-market correlations between Equities, Commodities, Bonds and Forex previously politely defined as \"stretched\" are now long gone, key relationships within specific markets were questionable.\r\n\r\nI have remained long the USD for a few weeks now and on Thursday the USD exploded on the back of the move towards 100.00 by the USD/JPY. The crazy thing was that \"Twitter\" went a little wild towards the end of the week with very high expectations on moves, and the  potential pip gains that were written about were incredible....I think that far too many fully leaded coffees were taken and no-one thought to try a de-caf!!\r\n\r\nThe RBA opened up talk of further weakness and rate cuts ahead on Tuesday night, then Wednesday night both the New Zealand and Australian Job numbers were blow outs, poo-pooing the previous nights comments a little. The RBNZ also said that it was openly interfering in the currency markets to weaken the New Zealand dollar.....well that\'s it they are all it.....so much liquidity we are going to drown as everywhere is flooded by central bank liquidity. Crazy times......\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>2 THE VIEW FROM MY TRADING DESK:</strong></span>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>NICE VOLATILITY IN FOREX....BUT DO NOT GET CARRIED AWAY....YET!!</strong></span></p>\r\nSo....it finally happened.\r\n\r\nThe break with correlations between markets finally gave us something that many people (myself included) have spoken or written about over the recent weeks. Personally, I do think that some people \"Lost the run of themselves\" by getting well carried away with predictions and pip moves. What we all do have to remember is that the Forex markets are flexing, as we had reached many break out scenarios at the same time, and correlations failed completely, but we did not break down. Major levels of support and resistance were tested and pierced but by the end of the week most currency pairs came back to key levels having just probed below or above trend lines.\r\n\r\nBelow is a snapshot of my experiences these past few days.....\r\n\r\n<em>Two news events in the week were high on my agenda, and still being long the USD, I went into both news events holding smallish positions. With both the AUD and NZD the employment data was better than the market predictions and both currencies strengthened on the news. (I had been short both the AUD/USD and NZD/USD from earlier in the week ahead of Tuesday night\'s RBA Interest Rate announcement). After the release of the Employment data on both occasions, to say that I was pist off would be a huge understatement, but my stops were well positioned, and working with good money management, and, my \"Trading Plan\", I remained in both trades albeit that they were both now loss trades having reversed position from before the data dump. Overnight Wednesday however, both trades pulled back once more and when I awoke on Thursday morning I was still  in two loss trades but now much smaller losses.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>On Thursday morning, I was still long the USD/JPY, and closed out a deal just before lunch-time on a pullback.....normally I would just let it go....but, I was a little bored.  About one hour later the USD strengthened like crazy, on the back of the USD/JPY taking aim for 100.00. My long USD CAD and USD CHF trades that were previously dead did a \"Lazarus\" and raced to great profitable positions. The AUD/USD and NZD/USD shorts from the previous night along with  GBP/USD and EUR/USD shorts that I had tweeted about that morning all came alive.....I jumped back in the USD/JPY as it exploded higher......and whoopee...the rest is history.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>All my trades from Wednesday night until Friday lunchtime were just all winners and big ones. All this success...but, we only really just tested the range limits, the major levels were tested but for me they held.</em>\r\n\r\nThose were my experiences and reactions over the past couple of days....probably very typical of many traders.\r\n\r\nAt the same time as trading I was watching CNBC (why...God only knows..it was about as relevant or useful as a chocolate teapot). I was listening on line to a webinar that had Fx content, reading charts, both candlestick and pressure charts and trying to monitor my trades to maximise the profit potential. In fact, on Thursday lunchtime just before the USD launched I was playing on Ebay and went into my trading room initially to check on my EUR/USD and GBP/USD short trades about one minute after the USD/JPY took off.....my timing was lucky.\r\n\r\nSo what am I saying this week?\r\n\r\nBasically, we had the chance to make a few pips in a trending market for 36 hours...but nothing else as levels basically held. The equity markets are still rising and whilst they are not turning lower  we will not see dramatic Forex moves to coincide.\r\n\r\nCan you just imagine what would happen if the equity markets pulled back?\r\n\r\nThe AUD/USD probed below parity yesterday but closed at 1.0021. The AUD/USD has failed to go up with the once tracked side by side relationship with the S&amp;P. As I have written on numerous occasions over the recent months the AUD/USD should be at record highs of 1.1500 or above to correlate with the S&amp;P all time highs. Instead as the S&amp;P hits all-time highs the AUD/USD probes below parity.  If the S&amp;P rolls over and pulls back, can you imagine where the AUD/USD will go? But we should not go there until the equity markets pullback, and, right now with the FED supporting the markets to the tune of $85 Billion per month that may still be a ways off, although I think that D-Day is getting much, much closer.\r\n\r\nKeys levels to watch for with the USD majors if equities roll over are in my opinion: -\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left; padding-left: 300px;\">EUR/USD: 1.2850 (Key support on measured move from wedge breakout)\r\nGBP/USD: 1.5250 (1.5350 (61.8% Fib.) was channel support for two months)\r\nAUD/USD: 99.00 (Key support from measured move on a Daily wedge breakout)\r\nNZD/USD: 0.8250 (Next support following Daily trend line breakdown)\r\nUSD/CAD: 1.0150 (Key resistance from previous break lower)\r\nUSD/CHF: 0.9650 (Fib. extension on Daily chart 161.8%)\r\nUSD/JPY: 102.50 (Fib. extension on Daily Chart 161.8%)</p>\r\nSo to sum up....equities need to roll over before we get carried away. The levels above are major levels to keep in mind.\r\n\r\nThe temptation to get \"Stuck in\" on USD strength may be a little  premature. Yesterday and Thursday offered large moves but I feel we may see some consolidation before the next move and I think for the move to hold water we will need to support of equities pulling back as well.\r\n\r\nDo not get carried away...there will be thousands of pips available when it happens.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>3. MY LONGER TERM TRADES:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nI have no open positions.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>4. LOOKING AHEAD INTO NEXT WEEK....THE MAJOR SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS:</strong></span>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.2986.</strong></span>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/EURUSD-240-11052013.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1733\" alt=\"EURUSD 240 11052013\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/EURUSD-240-11052013.png\" width=\"660\" /></a>\r\n\r\nAs you can see from the chart above. The wedge pattern has been broken and the measured move to the downside is 1.2850. The levels to watch next week are 1.2850 to 1.3050.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.5359</strong></span>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/GBPUSD-DAILY-11052013.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1734\" alt=\"GBPUSD DAILY 11052013\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/GBPUSD-DAILY-11052013.png\" width=\"660\" /></a>\r\n\r\n1.5350 is a key support level for this pair and we pulled back to close at this level yesterday. !.5250 to 1.5500 is the range.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>AUD/USD: Closing Price 1.0021</strong></span>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/AUDUSD-DAILY-11052013.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1732\" alt=\"AUDUSD DAILY 11052013\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/AUDUSD-DAILY-11052013.png\" width=\"660\" /></a>\r\n\r\nWow. This is the pair to closely watch. The range is now 0.9960, then 0.9900 (0.9850) up to 1.0115 resistance.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8294</strong></span>\r\n\r\nIf 0.8250 gives way properly we will see 0.8000 pretty quickly. 0.8450 will offer good resistance.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>USD/JPY: Closing Price 101.59</strong></span>\r\n\r\nThis pair is hard to read on levels. Basically, it is a runaway freight train. We should allow a little time to consolidate given the size of the recent move. I am thinking the range for now is 101.00 through to 102.50.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.9567</strong></span>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/USDCHF-DAILY-11052013.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1735\" alt=\"USDCHF DAILY 11052013\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/USDCHF-DAILY-11052013.png\" width=\"660\" /></a>\r\n\r\nThe range here is 0.9500 to 0.9650.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.0097</strong></span>\r\n\r\nThe most frustrating pair in the Fx market for me. 0.9990 to 1.0150 needs to be broken for me to get interested gain. Remember, this pair has a lot of catching up to do given the fact it has hardly moved of late so when it moves it will be, or rather hopefully, it should be, spectacular.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>5. THE MAJOR FX NEWS EVENTS THIS WEEK:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: GBP - Claimant Count, Inflation Report and Merv \"the Swerve\" is talking......\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>6. CLOSING THOUGHTS AND FINAL COMMENTS:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nThere are a few \"Code Red\" news events next week but only the UK employment data and Mervyn King\'s speech interest me.\r\n\r\nThere will be no Fx Drive-Thru next weekend as I will be traveling away from Montreal. Tweeting will be very limited if at all. Normal service will resume the week after next upon my return back home.\r\n\r\nBe careful, do not over trade until the market moves are confirmed. Expect a period of consolidation and at the same time do not be surprised if we see a lot of market volatility. Remember the commodity markets are acting poorly, Gold and Oil are struggling so these may influence moves that create false breakouts, be aware of this.\r\n\r\nGood luck and trade carefully,\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nSaturday May 11th 2013.','NICE VOLATILITY IN FX.... BUT DO NOT GET CARRIED AWAY....YET!!','','publish','open','closed','','nice-volatility-in-fx-but-do-not-get-carried-away-yet','','','2014-01-20 13:39:56','2014-01-20 18:39:56','',0,'http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/?p=1721',0,'post','',0),(1683,1,'2013-05-04 12:00:57','2013-05-04 17:00:57','<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>1. INTRODUCTION:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nWhere the hell do I start this time........I feel like I have just completed 15 rounds with Mike Tyson and it\'s not pretty....not that I consider myself to have pretty boy looks at all but OMG \"Glaze my nipples and call me Rita\", what a roller coaster ride I have been on these past five days.\r\n\r\nI had a reasonable start to the week, then it all went pair shaped.....I bounced back to lose it all on NFP yesterday. I am still in trades right now as I type, but, I had the chance to exit everything yesterday morning, sit back have a glass of Pinot and reflect....that\'s too bloody easy....why not stay in trades I should have exited and then beat myself about the head with a ruler for an hour or so, it\'s far more therapeutic and less calories. Golden rule number one....the market rules and dictates movement not me. Lesson well learnt once more!\r\n\r\nI traded the AUD/USD mainly to the short side as my tweets and last week\'s blog refer. In addition, I hung on in there with the USD/CAD long and came within striking distance of an out, if I had only averaged my holding (hindsight is a powerful thing). I also made great pips out of selling the USD/JPY during the week. Plus the usual splattering of profits and losses on the EUR/USD and GBP/USD.\r\n\r\nBig news for me in the week.......The UK looks like it can see the \"Rim\" of the toilet once more some positive news for once, but from an Fx traders perspective just a greater opportunity to short at higher levels with an enhance risk/reward ratio...1.5600 is a tough old nut for this pair to crack. Helicopter Ben said bugger all about poor U.S. economic data at at the FOMC release last week and it looks that it was a good move given the employment data with the NFP release yesterday. My only gripe is that it\'s total fiction...how many people have dropped out of the system? It seems the U.S. obsession with group hugs and pats on the back will persist even though most people acknowledge that the numbers are total boll***s. Finally, last but not least...Draghi ( a Puppet of Berlin) had his ECB conference on Thursday with the usual how can I say what I\'ve said before a thousand times and make it sound different. Transitory...a great word of Ben\'s at the FED and accommodative another Ben word, he has now adopted as part of his language. Great stuff...what about helping the periphery? A rate cut of 0.25% hurrah! Three hip hip hoorays for Super Mario....In my mind too little far too late. Germany could not give a hairy rats a** about the periphery. Every time I look at EZ flag and its stars......they stand for core values such as \"Harmony\", \"Unity\" and \"Solidarity\" etc...it might in principle but as with everything in the EZ more BS.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>2. THE VIEW FROM MY TRADING DESK:</strong></span>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>MR. NOWOTNY...THE FIRST RULE OF A CURRENCY WAR...\"KEEP YOU GOB SHUT\"</strong></p>\r\nMy reason for picking this as a topic is that we are in strange times...despite all the denials from politicians (mind you half of them deny everything as a point of order, the rest, well most of them dont know what day it is never mind anything else!), country head leaders (Prime Ministers, Presidents) , the IMF, G7 &amp; G20 need I go on anymore......?   we are living slap bang in the middle of a currency war. The main goal of a currency war......weaken your currency to make exporting finished goods cheaper, whilst at the same time state publicly you like your currency strong as this message delivers ..Power, Stability, Control and Leadership to your voters, but in the background remember treat your currency as if its on sale!!\r\n\r\nThe  FED (USA) is the biggest currency manipulator in the world , Ben is pumping $85 Billion dollars per month into the markets to keep equities inflated and the US$ weaker (quantitive Easing). Not to be put off, the UK instead of calling their easing (QE)  refer to it as an Asset purchase Facility. The Swiss (SNB) has a 1.2000 peg in place on the EUR/CHF currency pair. The ECB has offered many options that are pseudo QE or an Asset Purchase but are sneaky backdoor facilities that have not really worked as the US$ facility is massive and outbids all other players, but the ECB is at it in their own slimy way. Enter the Dragon, yes the Chinese are at pegging their rates artificially against the US$ and now finally the Japanese are at it. Abe (New Prime Minister) and Kuroda (BOJ Governor) are on the biggest weakening in history to try to get inflation back into the Japanese markets (Target 2%) and at the same time buying bonds like it\'s a Wal-Mart sale to try and ease and weaken the YEN. It\'s working and the countries listed already are complaining saying its currency manipulation....oh yeah right...\"Pot calling the kettle black\".\r\n\r\nSo we have a currency war, everyone is in the game. As with everything out of the Eurozone there are so many players that consider themselves MVP\'s it is virtually impossible to contain all the ego\'s.\r\n\r\nEnter Ewald Nowotny (Governor of the Austrian Central Bank),\r\n\r\nGod love him.....he just loves getting his face on TV and his name in papers and on web sites, but  Nowotny really fu**ed up on Friday morning.\r\n\r\nDraghi comes from Italy, he knows life in the periphery......he is on a direct puppet like string to Merkel in Berlin. She pulls it and he does as he is told ( I use the puppet on a string picture rather than clips attached to his testicles and wired to the mains electric power, in case that caused offence).\r\n\r\nThere are 27 members from the overall EU on the board of the ECB. You can bet your bottom dollar that they have not all  been saying no move on interest rates for the past six months and although its one country one vote, Germany has one really big vote, and, to be honest it contributes the most to the Eurozone so why shouldn\'t it have a big vote. Over recent months despite growing economic concern over the increasingly poor data released within the Eurozone it has been able to keep interest rates unchanged.\r\n\r\nThis month however, with a very public run of poor data PMi\'s, GDP\'s and record unemployment to name but three subjects...the pressure to cut was too much to hold back.\r\n\r\nThis would mean that borrowing costs for the periphery would reduce and help them with exports over the medium term. At the Press Conference the questions this month were surprisingly more adventurous than usual and somebody piped up to ask Draghi what else was left in the tank from the perspective of keeping money in the high street banks to force them to lend to get markets moving and hopefully see a cut in the unemployment lines. To keep money in high street banks, instead of them depositing money with ECB an earning interest, the questioner raised the matter of charging the banks interest to deposit money with the ECB..termed negative interest rates. Draghi said basically in his way of saying things that nothing was off the table and that the ECB would remain open and accommodative, in fact \"The ECB was technically ready\".......great sign to  weaken the EUR/USD from high 1.3100\'s to mid 1.3000\'s in minutes happy days for me I was short.......nothing wrong with all this at all.....friendly banter I\'d call it!!\r\n\r\nMove forward 21 hours and god love the unfortunate Ewald Nowotny as he says on CNBC Europe with Geoff Cutmore (I like this guy, he is one of the very, very, very few on this channel I have any time of day for), there had been no discussions on \"Negative Interest Rates\" for banks depositing with the ECB....it\'s a difficult subject, one of many options, but not relevant in the near future...this subject is nothing but of short-term relevance. From 1.3050 these comments triggered a short covering rally to 1.3135 in the EUR/USD......\r\n\r\nThen \"Quelle surprise\"...three hours later Nowotny comes back to the media to say....\"You got me all wrong\".....\"How could you  interpret what I said the way you did\"...interesting. what he didn\'t say was that he probably had a phone call from Draghi and a severe boll**king along the lines of: - \"F**k you, you stupid Austrian Gob shi**, what the F**k are you doing, I spent yesterday trying to weaken this f***ing currency once and for all and you with the big gob Austrian Gob in two minutes this morning have just reversed all my good work\"\r\n\r\nIn the interim period between Nowotny\'s original statement and return to the media we also had Erkki Liikanen from the Finnish Central Bank say that \"Negative Interest\" rates have regularly been discussed as an option...which would backup Draghi from the Press Conference...this means this guy is good at knowing what to say in a currency war situation,or, he is just a bloody good a** licker!!\r\n\r\nThe bottom line......We are in a currency war Mr. Nowotny in case it slipped by you, you divvy.......the first rule of a currency war is to deny that there even is one but more importantly keep your gob shut. Every one point in the favour of your currency over the opposing one means millions of dollars in exporting prices alone. The EZ is f***ed and needs every little bit of help it can get right now. It\'s a classic, the ECB behaves like the politicians in the Eurozone in the sense that they just cannot get in line and be consistent. Someone always wants to get their 5 minutes of fame and the temptation to break rank is too much for most of them to take. In a currency war it just is not good enough.\r\n\r\nAs it happens, yesterday we saw blowout numbers on NFP and the USD weakened against everything eventually as equities leapt up like a salmon.........\r\n\r\nWhere does all this leave the trades of the EUR/USD?\r\n\r\nI think the pair will come under pressure next week as normality sets in once again and the Draghi press conference notes are re-read. Lets just hope Nowotny\'s quotes are taken as just that without substance to the move forward. Deep down, everyone knows it makes sense for the EUR/USD to be trading much, much lower towards 1.2000. It\'s a slower week on Eurozone news next week and given the macros on the EUR/USD I think that we will test 1.2950 at some time but first we have to break below the magnet that is 1.3000. We must also remember that the ECB is on a weaken the EURO trip right now so this should keep the pressure on to the down side plus there are already mutterings about another 0.25% cut by July......\r\n\r\nLonger term I still believe that the EUR/USD is heading to 1.1500-1.1800. The ECB and most of the EZ except Germany probably want this, but, the fall has to be an orderely decline over many months not a 1,000 pip drop in three weeks like the GBP/USD had recently. Watch this space.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>3. MY LONGER-TERM TRADES:</strong></span>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>AUD/USD</strong>\r\n<strong>Short</strong>\r\n<strong>40% position size</strong>\r\n<strong>Entry/ Cost Average: 1.0259</strong>\r\n<strong>Stop Loss: 1.0400</strong>\r\n<strong>Target/ Profit: 0.9800</strong>\r\n<strong>Closing Price: 1.0316</strong>\r\n<strong>Present Position: -58 pips</strong></p>\r\nI am still short this pair and have been for sometime now. My long term view is that this pair is still underperforming in relation to the S&amp;P, given that the equity markets are at all time highs one would expect to see this pair blasted through 1.1500 at the minimum, yet it has been struggling to get through 1.0400. This break from the usual correlation must NOT be ignored. Can you imagine what will happen with this pair should the equity markets pullback!!\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>NZD/USD</strong>\r\n<strong> Short </strong>\r\n<strong>20% position size </strong>\r\n<strong>Entry/ Cost Average: 0.8486</strong>\r\n<strong>Stop Loss: 0.8581</strong>\r\n<strong>Target/ Profit: 0.7800</strong>\r\n<strong>Closing Price: 0.8532</strong>\r\n<strong>Present Position: -48 pips</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">I am not happy with this trade and I had the opportunity to get out yesterday with a small profit. Whilst I do feel that this pair is the most overpriced currency pair in the marketplace it has still held up incredibly well of late. I do believe that as the Aussie falls this pair will come screaming along with it and so I will not let this one run away too far.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>USD/CAD</strong>\r\n<strong>Long</strong>\r\n<strong>20% position size</strong>\r\n<strong> Entry/ Cost Average: 1.1112</strong>\r\n<strong>Stop Loss: 1.0020 </strong>\r\n<strong>Target/ Profit: 1.0600</strong>\r\n<strong>Closing Price: 1.0076</strong>\r\n<strong>Present Position: --34 pips</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">I am still long and have been now for over two weeks. I have taken profits off the table early on in this trade but it is an increasingly frustrating pair to trade. There are so many false hopes and it has been range trading for so long. I am confident that I am trading this pair the correct way for now, and, like the NZD/USD I will not let it run away from me.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>EUR/USD </strong>\r\n<strong>Short</strong>\r\n<strong>20% position size </strong>\r\n<strong>Entry/ Cost Average: 1.3114</strong>\r\n<strong>Stop Loss: 1.3200</strong>\r\n<strong>Target/ Profit: 1.2650</strong>\r\n<strong>Closing Price: 1.3113 </strong>\r\n<strong>Present Position: -1 pip</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">The macro fundamentals are lower for this pair and I am now cost averaged just above 1.3100. I will add only on confirmed breaks below 1.3000 and 1.2950.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>GBP/USD </strong>\r\n<strong>Short </strong>\r\n<strong>20% position size </strong>\r\n<strong>Entry/ Cost Average: 1.5532</strong>\r\n<strong>Stop Loss: 1.5625</strong>\r\n<strong>Target/ Profit: 1.4800</strong>\r\n<strong>Closing Price: 1.5571</strong>\r\n<strong>Present Position: -41 pips</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">1.5600 has seen to be a tough nut to crack. I am now cost averaged at 1.5532. Although we have some better economic data of late the underlying trend is lower.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>4. LOOKING FORWARD...THE SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS IN THE COMING WEEK WITH THE USD MAJORS:</strong></span></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3113.</strong> A bit of a roller coaster week although we really just range traded 1.2950 to 1.3280 all week. This is a very narrow trading range for this pair. Moving forward 1.2950 and 1.3250 needs to be broken to get a directional move going.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1708\" alt=\"EURUSD MONTHLY 050513\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/EURUSD-MONTHLY-050513.png\" width=\"660\"/></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.5571.</strong> This pair has topped out at 1.5620 and this will be a tough nut to crack. 1.5600 has offered a great opportunity to get short over the past week, we are ready for a break out with this pair and whilst I think it will break lower, we need to break 1.5480 or 1.5620 to set up a direction.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/GBPUSD-WEEKLY-05052013.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1709\" alt=\"GBPUSD WEEKLY 05052013\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/GBPUSD-WEEKLY-05052013.png\" width=\"660\"/></a></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>AUD/USD: Closing Price 1.0316.</strong> We are in a trading range of 1.0200 to 1.0400. We closed the week after record highs in the equity markets just above 1.0300, and, by coincidence the mid point of the trading range.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/AUDUSD-240M-05052013.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1707\" alt=\"AUDUSD 240M 05052013\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/AUDUSD-240M-05052013.png\" width=\"660\" /></a></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8532</strong>. The trading range is 0.8400 to 0.8580. My bias is to the short side over the medium to the long term and if/when equities eventually fall so will this pair. Like the Aussie it is not bursting a gut to the upside like the equity markets but it is much stronger than the Aussie in comparison.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>USD/JPY: Closing Price 98.99.</strong> I really do not know which way to approach this pair going forward. 100.00 is a bigger hurdle than most analysts thought that it was going to be. I feel certain that a break above 100.00 will catapult this pair to 105.00 very quickly but I have no confidence that 100.00 will be broken this coming week as there are no supportive news items to help. So, it is play the range again support at 97.00 to resistance at 99,60.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.0076.</strong> This pair flatters to deceive, on a very regular basis. It needs a good breakout rather than the umpteen false breakouts seen of late over the past month or so. 1.0020 to 1.0260 is the range to follow.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/USDCAD-MONTHLY-05052013.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1710\" alt=\"USDCAD MONTHLY 05052013\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/USDCAD-MONTHLY-05052013.png\" width=\"660\" /></a></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.9352.</strong> The range here is 0.9280 to 0,9410.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>5. MAJOR NEWS EVENTS COMING UP THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:</strong></span></p>\r\nSUNDAY: AUD - Retail Sales.\r\nMONDAY: EUR - Draghi Speaks.\r\nMONDAY: CAD - Building Permits and Ivey PMi.\r\nMONDAY: AUD - Trade Balance.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: AUD - RBA Statement and Cash Rate\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: NZD - Employment Change and Unemployment Rate.\r\nWEDNESDAY : CNY - CPi\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: GBP - Bank Rate and Asset Purchase Facility.\r\nTHURSDAY: AUD - Monetary Policy Statement.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: CAD - Employment Change and Unemployment Rate.\r\nFRIDAY: USD - Bernake Speaks.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>6. FINAL COMMENTS AND CLOSING THOUGHTS:</strong></span></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Although it is not as action packed a week as last week\'s there is still lots on the agenda. There are many pairs in breakout territory, GBP/USD and USD/CHF to name but two that are close, but the are others close as well like the EUR/USD  and the USD/CAD. Therefore, the bottom line is to be prepared and as one of  the pairs is the USD/CAD, be prepared for a false breakout either side.</p>\r\nPersonally, I intend to be less gun-ho this week and concentrate on my levels and targets.......\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Trade in line with your trade plan and keep within your money management guideliines....I intend to.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Scott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nSaturday 4th May 2013.</p>','MR. NOWOTNY... THE FIRST RULE OF A CURRENCY WAR...\"KEEP YOUR GOB SHUT\"','','publish','open','closed','','mr-nowotny-the-first-rule-of-a-currency-war-keep-your-gob-shut','','','2014-01-20 13:44:29','2014-01-20 18:44:29','',0,'http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/?p=1683',0,'post','',0),(1658,1,'2013-04-27 13:09:50','2013-04-27 18:09:50','<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>1. INTRODUCTION:</strong></span>\n\nAnother week of basically just range trading for me this week, with only a couple of exceptions the USD/JPY and GBP/USD breaking out. I am starting to think that maybe I will  look after the garden more this year as the Fx market is a little time wasting.\n\nI entered 30 trades this week. Three trades remain open...there were 19 profitable trades and 8 losing trades...the overall gain was about $250.00. Is it worth the time and energy involved? I love trading, I love the research, I love playing with the charts...but the time spent versus the return...very questionable. I know I should be happy, very happy given the way the markets are, to have profits, but I am seriously thinking of applying myself in another direction for the summer and return to Fx in September. As we all know all the markets slow down and liquidity becomes an issue from June to September anyhow. In the past six years I have traded through the summer having breakfast on the terrace, but this year I am so frustrated with my returns and the markets generally I am seriously thinking of having a little Fx holiday from trading.\n\nMy wife and I are looking to move house from Quebec to another Canadian province so the timing could fit nicely. The only problem....I am a bit of an Fx junkie and need my daily fix.....I am like a little lost boy wondering what to do on Saturday mornings after writing this blog  and as for Sundays......bloody nightmare brain wise until 5.00pm eastern.\n\nMoving on.....on Thursday, I had to check that hell had in fact not frozen over.....Houdini was resurrected in the guise of GBP/USD, which surprised the knickers off me by avoiding a triple dip recession. The UK Chancellor, George Osborne was heard walking through the adjoining corridor between 11 and 10 Downing Street on his way to see David Cameron, whistling the theme tune to \"The Great Escape\"........   I am happy for the UK, but can\'t help feeling that these numbers mean bugger all to the man on the street trying to make ends meet.\n\nThe USD/JPY can\'t get through 100.00........it\'s really in a series of lower highs every time it tries to break this key psychological number. I have traded it recently in both directions with both success and failure...... My only point on this pair that bugs me, and I tweeted about this - Don\'t you think that someone should get a roll of duct tape and stick it over Kuroda\'s mouth to shut him up. This guy talks every bloody night to the press and I think the markets are getting sick to death of the same old same old spewing from his mouth...give me a break...less is more. I think his continual verbal assault is strengthening the Yen, rather than weakening it!!\n\nFinally, I can\'t move on without mentioning my favourite subject; the Eurozone.  Spanish unemployment hits 27.2%, French PMi\'s outperform and German PMi\'s this week were lower, what a see-saw in my EUR/USD trade, my stop at 1.3250 held but after the French PMi release with the German numbers to come, I thought hello loss......instead a huge reversal. German \"IFO\" numbers failed as well. The EUR/USD stuck like glue pretty much towards the end of the week to 1.3000 on talk of an interest rate cut......hmmn.....\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>2. THE VIEW FROM MY TRADING DESK:</strong></span>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>WILL DRAGHI CUT RATES THIS THURSDAY?</strong></p>\nThis coming week is a monster week for news relating to the Fx market, lots of big events. The biggest standout for me is whether Draghi has the balls to defy Berlin and cut the benchmark Euro rate from 0.75% by 25 basis points to 0.50%.\n\nMy last few blogs main segment notes have been: -\n\nMarch 23rd - CYPRUS: THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE BIGGEST F**K UP THE EUROZONE HAS EVER MADE\nMarch 30th - ANOTHER CAN GET\'\'S KICKED DOWN THE ROAD......\nApril 6th - SO.....DRAGHI THINKS ALL IS WELL WITHIN THE EUROZONE.....INTERESTING!!\nApril 13th -  THE EUROZONE IS SO F***ED UP....WE JUST NEED DRAGHI &amp; MERKEL TO FINALLY ADMIT IT\nApril 20th - THE EUROZONE....WHAT A MESS; I JUST DON\'T GET IT....THE POLITICIANS MAKE IT WORSE\n\nBit of a pattern eh!!\n\nYes....the Eurozone is always in my thoughts. I am not in any way shape or form complimentary about the way the Eurozone is managed and to be frank I see it as a vehicle for most Eurozone politicians to abuse as a vehicle for tasting fine wines and sitting down to lavish seven course meals. Both the Brussels and Frankfurt Eurozone centres have blossoming Corporate hospitality businesses second to none in the world, in fact, this type of business is a major success in the Eurozone......there are so many \"Jollies\" in the calendar it\'s a disgrace and tax payers deserve much more.\n\nWill super \"I will do whatever it takes\" Mario Draghi cut interest rates this week on Thursday? If Trichet was still head of the ECB I would say a definite NO.  Draghi cut rates at his first meeting in charge when he replaced JC......so he has history of not being afraid to make his mark, and, he has done a tremendous job in spite of having to deal with a batch of numpty politicians on a daily basis.......but..............................remember he works for Berlin. It is difficult at times to see the strings, but he is a puppet, and those strings are there...although in 2013 they would be classified as virtual!!\n\nThe Bundesbank through Wiedmann, the German Finance Minister Schauble and Queen Angela have all weighed in on this subject over the past few days and basically.... Austerity rules......it is the only way......we (the Germans) do not need rate cuts in fact we could do with  higher rates........\n\nThe last paragraph must be music to the ears of the desperate Spanish people looking for any glimmer of hope to ease their financial burden, the same applies to the Greek, Portuguese, Slovenian and Cypriot populations who would clutch at anything that looks to give them something positive. Austerity simply is not working across the Eurozone in totality....that is a fact. Policies that promote growth which would help reduce employment lines in all the countries already mentioned plus Italy is what the Eurozone needs or there will be no turning the corner. I know that it is very easy for me to make these comments but I have connections back in blighty (the UK), Ireland and Spain and I regularly receive feedback from readers in other Eurozone countries, who are united in one fact......numbers and percentages quoted by their government\'s, Brussels or  Frankfurt say one thing but the street is where it happens and without exception my connections are united in their comment that they are all f***ed.\n\nIf Draghi does not cut, I think the markets will attack the single currency like f**k.........and we will be looking at 1.2000 in the coming weeks. It will in my opinion just support my beliefs that the ECB is so out of touch it\'s unbelievable. If Draghi does cut, I think that there is a fair chance, say 70%-30% that the EUR will strengthen, as it would be viewed positive.\n\nMy heart tells me cut...but my brain says no....I think that unless a monumental Eurozone screw up is handed to the markets over the next few days, Draghi will talk about it coming in the next couple of months.\n\nGet ready to trade it either way....\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>3. MY LONGER TERM TRADES:</strong></span>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>EUR/USD:</strong></span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Date Trade Entered: Monday 26th April 2013</strong>\n<strong>Long/Short: Short</strong>\n<strong>Number of Days in trade: 5</strong>\n<strong>Cost Average Entry Price: 1.3010</strong>\n<strong>Stop Loss: 1.3125</strong>\n<strong>Profit / Target level: 1.2360</strong>\n<strong>Position Size: 20%</strong>\n<strong>Current position +/- pips: loss 21 pips</strong></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>AUD/USD:</strong></span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Date Trade entered: Monday 26th April 2013</strong>\n<strong> Long/Short: Short</strong>\n<strong>Number of Days in trade: 5</strong>\n<strong>Cost Average Entry Price: 1.0275</strong>\n<strong>Stop Loss: 1.0440</strong>\n<strong>Profit / Target level: 0.9750</strong>\n<strong>Position Size: 100%</strong>\n<strong>Current position +/- pips: loss 1 pip</strong></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>USD/CHF:</strong></span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Date Trade entered: Wednesday 28th April 2013</strong>\n<strong>Long/Short: Long</strong>\n<strong> Number of Days in trade: 3</strong>\n<strong>Cost Average Entry Price: 0.9454</strong>\n<strong>Stop Loss: 0.9350</strong>\n<strong>Profit / Target level: 0.9750</strong>\n<strong>Position Size: 20%</strong>\n<strong>Current position +/- pips: loss 27 pips</strong></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">I was also long the USD/CAD until yesterday and took at big 75 pip loss on the trade. Call me weak....for being a little yellow, not widening my stops, but I am playing to my Trading Plan. I was 60% loaded and to be honest I will probably regret the trade but I must remain true to my trade plan, it has held me in good order this year and last year it saved me thousands of dollars. My stop was tighter than normal on the USD/CAD, but key levels gave way and I wanted to limit my exposure.</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>4. LOOKING AHEAD INTO THIS WEEK\'S SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS:</strong></span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3029.</strong></span>  The 1.3000 level is proving to be a magnet level ahead of this week\'s ECB Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference. After the poor German PMi statistics and the Ifo Business confidence number both being weak, the EUR/USD fell from 1.3200 resistance back to 1.3000. This is a great level of support, it has ventured lower on a few occasions only to spring back above shortly after. 1.2950 is big support below there opens up a test of 1.2650 and below. 1,3200 will offer great resistance on the way back up. Roll on Thursday it will be \"Knicker gripping!!\"</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.5474.</span> </strong>We are stopped just below 1.5480 resistance. With Hell not freezing over on Thursday morning, I think that we could get up to 1.5620 before moving lower again. Great resistance lies there and I have it etched in my brain to look to short around a stop loss break between 1.5600 and 1.5650. Support will be the tough resistance prior to the GDP release of 1.5300.</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>AUD/USD: Closing Price 1.0276.</strong></span> If I have said it once, I must have said it a thousand times......\"Correlations matter\" This pair used to be joined at the hip to the S&amp;P....not anymore. As the S&amp;P grinds higher the Aussie is falling; God only knows what is going to happen to this pair should equities pull back. My target with this pair is sub parity at 0.9750 and then I am looking at 0.9300. The pair bounces on government news releases an then the short lived bounce is sold into by the market, I have a long term short trade in effect at the moment. I have taken profits along the way and added back. I am fully loaded short and have no problems remaining so for the forseeable future. The range is 1.0215 to 1.0380.</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8480. </strong></span>I want to get short this pair. In my opinion it is the most inflated major pair in the Fx market. It has started to come lower, so I am looking to short on a pullback around 0.8515. I think that there is a great opportunity to make money short in this pair. The last few times I have tried to short I think my success rate was about 50-50 without checking my trading history. It is not always following the AUD/USD so you have to be careful. The range is 0.8390 to 0.8550.</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.0165.</strong></span> Having been duly stuffed yesterday with my long position I am still thinking that I may be trying a long trade again soon. I want the pair to drop to 1.0050.....but I do not think that that will happen unless the wheels come off the bus and the S&amp;P goes on acid and crude prices spike to $110.00. The range is 1.0140 to 1.0260.</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>USD/JPY: Closing Price 98.05.</strong> </span>Despite the BOJ 2% inflation target and Kuroda\'s continual comments along with bond buying, this pair has strengthened since the BOJ meeting Thursday night/Friday morning. The 100.00  level has eluded this pair so far...but never under estimate the BOJ. They are showing teeth and it certainly seems like they mean business. We could be at 100.00 by Monday night if key factors fall into position, the USD/JPY can be that volatile if it chooses. The downside risks are for me at 96.00...wouldn\'t that just be a great place to enter long? The initial range for me however  is, 97.70 to 99.60.</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.9429.</strong></span> We are currently playing out a \"Head and Shoulders\" pattern with the measured move to 0.9475. I am currently long this pair and I will add above a break of 0.9500. I think the EUR/USD is heading much lower so I am in the camp of parity in six months with this pair. Immediate levels are support at 0.9350 and resistance at 0.9475.</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>5. MAJOR NEWS EVENTS IN THE COMING WEEK THAT INTEREST ME:</strong></span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">There are weeks in the Fx market where news events are dominant and there are weeks that are just brilliant to trade.......this coming week is awesome. I have two dogs and this type of week is the kind where I ask my wife to do the morning feed as I do not want to be away from my machines and charts for a minute. This week has the potential for me to be permanently in the \"Trading Room\" adjoining the office in our basement.....little sleep and mucho coffee, and, additionally for extra umph I have replaced Jack and Diet with Gin and Tonic for the summer months.</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">This is some week......even Ben and the FED are in on the action......</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">TUESDAY: CAD - GDP\nTUESDAY: USD - Consumer Confidence\nTUESDAY: CNY - Manufacturing PMi</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">WEDNESDAY: GBP - Manufacturing PMi\nWEDNESDAY: USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment numbers, ISM Manufacturing PMi and FOMC Statement.</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">THURSDAY: GBP - Construction PMi\nTHURSDAY: EUR - Interest Rate Announcement and ECB Press Conference,</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">FRIDAY: GBP - Services PMi\nFRIDAY: USD - Non Farm Employment Rate, Unemployment Rate and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMi.</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>6. CLOSING THOUGHTS...........FINAL COMMENTS:</strong></span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">A very big week. These are the weeks that you can lose your account balance if you do not trade within your financial capabilities and stick to you trade plan. Trade lean and mean......do not leave your machine unprotected..wear \'depends\' if you have to!!</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">In the end read up as much as you can. I will tweet as requested by some of you the progress, good or bad, on the three trades that I am currently in.</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Good luck and take care,</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Scott Pickering\nThe Pip Accumulator\nSaturday 27th April 2013.</p>','WILL DRAGHI CUT RATES THIS THURSDAY?','','publish','open','closed','','fx-market','','','2013-04-27 13:09:50','2013-04-27 18:09:50','',0,'http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/?p=1658',0,'post','',0),(1637,1,'2013-04-20 10:45:39','2013-04-20 15:45:39','<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>1. INTRODUCTION:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nLast week was a very interesting week for me. I traded very heavily on Monday (The largest trade sizes of 2013 so far), mainly the commodity currencies that dropped on the back of the metal meltdown of Gold, Silver and Copper. Do not forget WTi as well. The NZD/USD, in particular I hammered short. I even tried the USD/JPY short for a few pips. I kept faith with the commodity currencies towards the end of the week;  AUD/USD and NZD/USD short and the USD/CAD long. Good pip profits...happy days!!\r\n\r\nThe continual weakness in copper is fascinating me. I do feel that we are seeing an end to the bullish run in equities. We are certainly seeing lower daily highs, this is telling. Maybe the U.S. traders daily routine of buy in the morning on dips and sell later on in the afternoon is coming to an end. If equities do start to roll over the AUD/USD will drop like a bat out of hell. I will re-enter long the USD on pullbacks in the three commodity currencies mentioned already as early next week as possible.\r\n\r\nIn the news; Gold finally falls, or should I say collapses. It\'s been threatening this drop for sometime, and after a little consolidation period, I believe the downside move will start again. Next time I believe $1,300 per troy ounce is in the mix and possibly even lower to maybe $1,100. Then we had Fitch\'s downgrade of UK debt, following the move made sometime ago by S&amp;P. Earlier in the week Egan-Jones downgraded German credit rating from A+ to A on the basis that there is a lack of will to stimulate the Eurozone.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>2. THE VIEW FROM MY TRADING DESK:</strong></span>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>THE EUROZONE.... WHAT A MESS; I JUST DON\'T GET IT...THE POLITICIANS MAKE IT WORSE</strong></p>\r\nThis is the fifth week on the run that I have written my main blog piece about the Eurozone.....you should not be surprised.\r\n\r\nI am just gobsmacked that no matter what happens news wise in the Eurozone the opportunity to control the response is always screwed up because so many people want a say on the subject matter. That would be fine, but the conflicts and difference of opinions from the finance ministers, country leaders and ECB members, (whilst in the initial stages were seen as a strength are now a just a huge...massive weakness) just mislead the markets and fundamentally create confusion. If the Eurozone needed confusion to operate effectively rather than clarity, it would be the most efficient trading and economic area in the world. Instead we have the total opposite...a clumsy combination of inept politicians who, if were locked in the Guinness brewery on a Friday night, left over the weekend and when you called back on Monday morning they would all be stone cold sober!!  The way the press statements, media sound bytes and twitter comments break to the market creates confusion and as we all  know the markets hate confusion. As traders we sometimes like confusion because it can help with creating volatility that can help us with trades. However, if you are  longer term traders, you really want a trend and the Eurozone does not deliver this and if you examine moves in the EUR/USD so many a sharp spikes either up or down reacting to political statements. It makes the EUR/USD difficult to trade at times.\r\n\r\nThis week.....Cyprus, Slovenia, Italy, Spain and Germany all hit the headlines for various reasons. Only 5 out of 17 member countries in the news this week on major headlines..... not bad for the Eurozone. Add to this the start of the build up to the next ECB press conference with the riddles about rate cuts being on or off. and it all creates more volatility and spikes higher and lower.\r\n\r\nI blogged a couple of times about the last ECB press conference and how disappointed I was with Draghi\'s performance, in fact, I believed he was less than truthful with the press. He looked very uncomfortable at all times. Allegedly, there were no discussions on interest rates. Yesterday, both Wolfgang Schauble (German Finance Minister) and Jens Wiedmann (German Bundesbank President and member of the ECB Governing Council) continued the press releases that started on Wednesday by Wiedmann, over whether or not the EUR/USD was trading at appropriate levels and whether or not the ECB interest rate should be cut from its present 0.75%. These releases caused spikes higher in the EUR/USD.\r\n\r\nI tweeted yesterday that 1.3125 was a great place to short on a spike high. If you did this you could be +75 pips up as the EUR/USD fell back into downward trend and ended the day at 1.3048. If you think about this discussion on interest rates, the same happened last month, yet we were told there was no discussion at the ECB meeting prior to the press conference...yeah right.... complete bulls**t from Draghi and the press and markets bought it...numpties!!\r\n\r\nThe bottom line i,s as I have tweeted this past week is......there is no good news in the Eurozone. It continues to deliver poor economic data after poor economic data and the politicians in conjunction with Draghi simply do not know how to plan to minimise the effect or more importantly provide a credible action plan on how they are going to tackle the problem and what measures if any they can implement to rectify. I know Draghi has his EFSF, OMT etc etc. These do nothing for the day to day management of trying to get growth into an economy.\r\n\r\nCyprus, Greece and Slovenian banks are down the \"Swanee River\" without a paddle...... Remember that the non existant.....but it is definitely there.... \"Bail-in\" template that  is not yet gathering dust from the Cyprus f**k up will be out again soon ... The banking problems in these countries are way above the Politicians who are about as useful as a chocolate teapot.....completely helpless.\r\n\r\nUnpaid regional debt bills in Spain are rising, it is now at Euro 42 million, with the Madrid region number one on the charts of worst offender, replacing Catalonia. As Jack Nicholson says...\"Somethings Gotta Give\". As I have blogged and tweeted for over a year now, Spain is going to pull the Eurozone apart. Politicians are in complete denial. Rahoy (The Spanish Prime Minister) has a massive social debt burden and there is no way can he bail out the regions.\r\n\r\nThen there is the fall out from the Italian election. It seems like they were held years ago, not months, given the amount of time this story has been around. Yesterday, the fourth election to find a president (not a government leader) ended in failure......rumours of various politicians resigning followed. This is boring, boring, boring and another election will probably be the outcome....eventually that is. Politicians cannot agree on a way forward with \"The Clown\" in particular wanting nothing of a coalition. Plus nobody wants to work with Togaman (Berlusconni).\r\n\r\nFinally, Germany.....Egan-Jones downgrades German credit on the fact it has \"No will\" to stimulate the Eurozone. At last the feck**g truth for once. Germany, could not give a hairy rats ass about stimulating growth in the periphery. This is the fundamental problem in the Eurozone right now......austerity is not working, and, without Germany on board with stimulus growth policies, we will watch the Eurozone limp from one calamity to the next. The German politicians have laughed off  this downgrade, they are not interested or concerned and because they are Germany, \'numero uno in the Eurozone no tin pot U.S. rating agency is going to tell them the error of their ways...... they are not moved on this subject and they will not change direction.\r\n\r\nSo with all this being laid out on a table in front of us as traders, how do we trade?\r\n\r\nI firmly believe that the Eurozone is like a dysfunctional family, and, it is only heading one way....lower. Should a rate cut to 0.50% be in the offing this will further send the single currency lower (weaker). The EUR/USD is only really at the 1.3000-1.3150 level because of FED action supporting U.S. equity markets to the tune of $85 Billion per month. Can you imagine if equities start to roll over and the ECB cut rates...where does that leave the EUR/USD?\r\n\r\nMy targets on the EUR/USD are as follows: -\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>\r\n<div style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">The continual weakness in the EUR/USD from the day to day country issues: I see a test of 1.2950 first and if we break this level I see a test of 1.2750 next.</div></li>\r\n	<li>\r\n<div style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">Equity markets correct and pullback. The S&amp;P below 1530 is key, if we see a 10% pullback: 1.2750 will come into view quicker. Then a test of 1.2650 should be on the cards.</div></li>\r\n	<li>\r\n<div style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">An ECB rate cut in addition to the above: Over a period of two/three months I think a test of 1.2000-1.2250 This is potentially a 1,000 pip move from current levels but the Eurozone is in such poor shape the Monthly long term chart trend line could be tested in the longer term.</div></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>3. MY LONGER TERM TRADES:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nI have no long term trades in play at the moment.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>4. LOOKING FORWARD...THE KEY SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS I WILL BE LOOKING FOR WITH THE USD MAJORS.</strong></span>\r\n\r\n<strong>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3048.</strong> We are in a trading range effectively from 1.2950 to 1.3200......although towards the end of the week the resistance level seemed to be a little lower at 1.3125.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/EURUSD-MONTHLY-200413.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1651\" alt=\"EURUSD MONTHLY  200413\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/EURUSD-MONTHLY-200413.png\" width=\"660\"  /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.5226.</strong> The Fitch debt downgrade yesterday brought the support level lower in this pair from 1.5250. This level will act as resistance over the next day or so. In recent times the markets have dismissed the credit agencies as pointless behind the event companies with their gradings so do not be surprised if the European market on Monday morning shrugs off this downgrade and the GBP rallies a little. Bear in mind 99% of news from the UK is poor so I think we are heading lower. If the EUR/USD heads lower the GBP/USD will come lower screaming and complaining. The only caveat I have is that the \"Cross-Rate\" effects are being felt much more than usual. The commodity weaknesses are the main reason and the GBP/CAD, GBP/AUD and GBP/NZD are all playing their part in maybe restricting the moves in the USD majors. That said the levels to watch going forward are 1.5150 to 1.5420.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/GBPUSD-WEEKLY-200413.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1650\" alt=\"GBPUSD WEEKLY 200413\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/GBPUSD-WEEKLY-200413.png\" width=\"660\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>AUD/USD: Closing Price 1.0275.</strong> We sit at a key line in the sand level. 1.0280 is a key support level....we are there. If we continue lower, we will soon be testing 1.0150 then parity. There are many factors that can send this pair lower, Copper, Equity market weakness, Gold, China economic data, RBA interest rate policy to name but a few. Personally, I do see this pair trading sub parity and the calls for 1.0800 and above that I have read from time to time should have happened by now given the rise in the Dow Jones and S&amp;P to record highs. Quite frankly, the AUD/USD should have been at 1.1500 given the equity markets rise. In reality we have struggled to beat 1.0580. Therefore my bias is lower.....there are many pips to be made, you just need to be patient. The range that I will be looking at is 1.0150 to 1.0400.\r\n\r\n<strong>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8412.</strong> We closed just above key 0.8400 support. The range that interests me is 0.8350 to 0.8510.\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/JPY: Closing Price 99.47.</strong> The Abe-Kuroda show continues. One minute I read that\'s it...no more weakening...\"We have gone far enough\".....then it\'s a pullback to 95.80. Next we had turncoat Christine Lagard (DSK\'s replacement as head of the IMF) contradicting an unnamed spokesperson from Washington saying that Japan should play by the G7-G20 rules and stop deliberately weakening the Yen. The USD/JPY strengthened on the Washington press release and then after Lagarde\'s news conference the Yen weakened, and to add fuel to the fire Kuroda popped up out of the blue to say....\"We are still weakening......we have our targets/objectives to meet\". The upshot of all this is that the USD/JPY weakened into the weekend and closed at 99.47, in striking distance of 100.00 once again. Don\'t stand in front of the runaway train is a statement worth noting.....I do think that if we break 100.00 I am very tempted to say that 105.00 could be on the cards. Certainly, I think the momentum over 100.00 will push this pair towards 101.00 quite quickly. Will we break 100.00? is the question. The range I am looking at is 98.50 to 100.00 in the short term.\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.0263.</strong> We are at the point of a breakout with this pair. The only problem is we have been here before and failed. Critical resistance is 1.0340. A break through this level and my thoughts are looking towards 1.0500-1.0600. Support is 1.0190 then 1.0150.\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.9337.</strong> I was sitting with my fingers on the button Friday to get long this pair. There is an inverted Head and Shoulders pattern  in play if the neckline of 0.9340 is broken. The measured move on a neckline break is to target 0.9480. Support is good at 0.9280.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>5. MAJOR  FOREX NEWS EVENTS COMING UP THIS NEXT WEEK:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nMONDAY: CNY - HSBC Flash manufacturing PMi.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: EUR - French and German Flash Manufacturing PMi.\r\nTUESDAY: NZD - RBNZ Interest Rate Decision and Statement.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY/FRIDAY: JPY - BOJ Press Conference and Monetary Policy Statement\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>6. CLOSING THOUGHTS AND FINAL COMMENTS:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nWhilst it may look a little light on news events next week, we are at yet another crossroad in the markets both Equity and Forex, and, in addition, many major pairs are at key support or near resistance levels. I see the USD only getting stronger as the weeks roll by, given the weakness in metals and the commodity currencies. As I have said many, many times before.....commodities lead the way, then bonds, and equities are nearly always the last to arrive at the party. We have not had the usual inter market correlations in place for quite sometime now and I really feel a sentiment change is a-foot...so be careful, moves could be dramatic and telling.\r\n\r\nTrade lean and mean with wider stops, smaller position sizes and operate within your trading plan.\r\n\r\nGood luck,\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nSaturday 20th April 2013','THE EUROZONE....WHAT A MESS; I JUST DON\'T GET IT... THE POLITICIANS MAKE IT WORSE','','publish','open','closed','','1-2','','','2014-01-20 13:47:33','2014-01-20 18:47:33','',0,'http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/?p=1637',0,'post','',1),(1613,1,'2013-04-13 11:02:36','2013-04-13 16:02:36','<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>1. INTRODUCTION:</strong></span>\n\n\"It\'s enough to drive you to drink\" this is a very common phrase used in times of frustration......this sums up the Forex market for me right now. Correlations are great indicators........well we can forget about most of these at the moment...there are bugger all correlations taking place presently.\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">I just love it when we can say we had a meltdown in metals...well it happened yesterday, Gold, Silver and Copper all fell very dramatically, especially Gold which closed below $1500. It looks like it\'s heading to $1300 now. Keeping correlations in mind, Gold, Copper and Oil (WTi) .....\"The Holy Trinity\" all fell sharply yesterday, yet the USD never really strengthened...... Guess who  is long the USD? Yes, I am big time the USD long and I am holding sizeable negative positions over this weekend with trades in the following pairs:</p>\n\n<ol>\n	<li>EUR/USD - short (100% position size)</li>\n	<li>NZD/USD - short (25% position size)</li>\n	<li>USD./CAD - long (25% position size)</li>\n	<li>USD/JPY - long (50% position size)</li>\n</ol>\nIf that wasn\'t enough a U.S. Treasury spokesman, after the Wall Street close was reported to have said that Japan \"Should refrain from competitive devaluation and it should adhere to G7/G20 commitments\"........sounds like the pot calling the kettle black. I placed my stops good and wide to cope with volatility but  after the JPY strengthened in the last 45 minutes of trading my stop was nearly activated. Suffice to say, the Tokyo open on Monday (Sunday night for us in North America) will be interesting it will either be a huge continual drop or one hell of a bite back.\n\nFor most of the week, I was a little bored. I felt that the Fx market was on hold just waiting for the USD/JPY to break through 100.00. Therefore apart from a lone long USD/JPY trade that I have been holding for a few days.  It was the \"Holy Trinity\" move lower yesterday, Gold in particular, that really caught my attention and caused my fingers to hit the keyboard. As/if  Gold drops I do think that the USD will strengthen and catch up, plus the commodity currencies will/should also play catch up if Silver and Copper continue to stay under pressure.\n\nYes...it\'s enough to drive you, in this case me to drink (Believe me, it would not be a long drive), when you are looking for correlations and lead indicators to perform and guide you  .....but when they don\'t the market becomes difficult to follow and understand.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>2.  THE VIEW FROM MY TRADING DESK:</strong></span>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>NOW IT\'S CYPRUS SELLING IT\'S GOLD...THE EUROZONE IS SO F***ED UP...WE JUST NEED DRAGHI AND MERKEL TO FINALLY ADMIT IT</strong></p>\nUp until Friday morning prior to the European open the EUR/USD had traded most of the week  in a tight range 1.2900 - 1.3150. It ended the week still in this range but at the European open yesterday the Cyprus f**k up came back to the brim once again. This time, Cyprus is rumoured to be thinking about dumping part of it\'s Gold reserves to fund it\'s need for more cash as the Eurozone agreed package and the \"Bail-in\" monies are now not going to be enough.....quelle surprise.\n\nRegarding the Cyprus situation, you do not need an extraordinary high IQ, be a member of Mensa, or, be a qualified brain surgeon.....just a bit of grey matter between the ears will do to see that what was originally agreed was not enough.......that in itself precludes most of the numpty politicians hovering around the Eurozone. All of the back tracking after the initial screwed press release of the \"Bail In\" affecting all bank depositors, coupled with the speed to have a deal, shows all the negotiation skills of not looking beyond the end of your nose. It was inevitable that a requirement for increased monies would be required, and I strongly suspect that Draghi and Merkel hoped that this requirement for more cash would have been necessary after bank credit controls were removed not before. This shows how bad Cyprus is. Given the short time period since the \"Bail-in\",this announcement just beggars belief, I was astounded, but given the Eurozone history on these matters, I shouldn\'t have been so surprised.\n\nI blogged two weeks ago that Cyprus could be the biggest Eurozone f**k of all time. In my mind right now, I am more convinced than ever that unless the Eurozone politicians (in conjunction with the ECB and the IMF) get their house in order to either support the member states 100% as per the constitution that they all signed, or cut out the periphery countries, Cyprus will be the trigger on the contagion effect. There will be a lot of nervous politicians around Europe this weekend, plenty of shaky hands pouring out their corn flakes in the morning catching up on overnight news and reading the morning papers.\n\nSo Cyprus needs more money. Will the Cypriot government just sell some of it\'s Gold reserves or just increase the \"bail-in\" as no-one has been able to withdraw their money from the Cyprus banks yet?  If the Eurozone politicians naively believed there would not be a run on the banks in Cyprus because they were taking the heat out of the situation by their credit control policy, they well and truly got that wrong. Cyprus is going under big time, there will be a run like olympian 100 metre sprinters when normal banking facilities are open again.\n\nThe Eurozone, I believe mainly Germany, is pushing Cyprus under a bus, and a big one it is. Despite what Draghi says, to me he has shown his true colours, he is only a puppet of Berlin.  This is a dangerous tactic/strategy that is being played as the knock on effects could break up the Southern Eurozone members and the periphery issues will disappear overnight.\n\nThe contagion is on.....Cyprus only has banking and tourism to create wealth. Banking is no more, completely screwed and tourism will be hit hard as prices for tourists will no doubt rise. Greece is linked to Cyprus in so many ways, there will be a spill over.  As I have blogged numerous times before, Spain is a headline away from sending the EUR/USD to 1.2000 and Italy is so f****d up politically car registration plates should contain the strap-line \"The land of turmoil\". Portugal is  also on the point of requesting aid, Slovenia now on the brink..... The Eurozone single currency one size fits all just does not work......\n\nI am sick to the back teeth of hearing politicians and the ECB say all is good and improvements are in the pipeline....the Eurozone is in a deepening recession and people who are only on the planet once are being put through hell in the name of austerity that is NOT working...it is just creating pain for voters and  for the countries involved longer unemployment lines and bigger social problems that they cannot fund in the short-term, never mind the long-term.\n\nThis is a f****ing disaster. It is almost a \"West End farce\" It is about time that Draghi and Merkel in particular, take the lead  and provide an escape route for the periphery by allowing them to bring back their own currencies re-value them, clear the debts and through Eurozone trade aid, create a path for them to stay in the Eurozone but not members of the single currency group.\n\nThe Eurozone is totally f****d up and I know that the leaders and ECB will never admit this, but they must be really dizzy from all the \"Spinning\" going on.\n\nAll that being said, what trades are potentially ahead.\n\nThe drop in metals yesterday and the fall in crude as well would normally just strengthen the USD. The EUR/USD in particular was very stubborn and stayed very close to 1.3100 all day after recovering from 1.3040 in the morning as the \"Gold\" news was released.\n\nI am short the EUR/USD. I am going to stay short as long as we stay below 1.3180. My thoughts are that the effects of the Gold and Oil sell off has not yet been reflected in the USD and if Gold does continue to head lower the USD will strengthen accordingly. My thoughts are a break below yesterday\'s 1.3040 should open up a move towards 1.2960, maybe lower. As with all trades, I will either be right or wrong!!\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>3. LONGER-TERM TRADES:</strong></span>\n\nI have no long term trades at the moment.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>4. LOOKING INTO NEXT WEEK....THE KEY SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJOR PAIRS:</strong></span>\n\n<strong>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3111.</strong> I have mentioned this pair several times in the blog with my trading thoughts.....to confirm the range 1.2950 to 1.3160.\n\n<strong>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.5342.</strong>  We sit on support at 1.5340. Below here is 1.5250 and above resistance sits at 1.5420.\n\n<strong>AUD/USD: Closing Price 1.0507.</strong>  With this pair closing the week just above 1.0500 there will be a few traders who would have preferred below 1.0500 to give a more bearish tone. The facts are with the \"Holy Trinity\" sell off, the commodity currencies initially sold off well but then held up as equities didn\'t follow lower. Looking ahead, 1.0400 is support and 1.0630 is resistance.\n\n<strong>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8587.</strong> A nice sell off with this pair yesterday. Like other pairs if commodities continue to sell off this pair should fall as well. We sit mid range, support is at 0.8530 and resistance is at 0.8675.\n\n<strong>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.0135.</strong> The CAD led the way yesterday initially and sits at the mid point of my range...support is at 1.0050 and resistance 1.0240.\n\n<strong>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.9271.</strong> I have been ignoring this pair lately. The range is 0.9240 to 0.9410.\n\n<strong>USD/JPY: Closing Price 98.36.</strong> Wow....what to say about this pair is tricky given the U.S. Treasury comments late in the day yesterday. 98.00 is a big level of support, below here is 97.50. Resistance is at 100.00.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>5. THE MAJOR NEWS EVENTS AND FX NEWS EVENTS THIS COMING WEEK:</strong></span>\n\nSUNDAY: JPY - BOJ Kuroda Speaks\nSUNDAY: CNY - GDP\n\nMONDAY: JPY - Kuroda Speaks\n\nTUESDAY: GBP - PPi, CPi and BOE Inflation letter.\nTUESDAY: EUR - ZEW Sentiment.\n\nWEDNESDAY: GBP - Claimant count change, MPC meeting minutes.\nWEDNESDAY: CAD - Interest rate statement, Policy report and RBC press conference.\n\nFRIDAY: CAD - CPi\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>6. FINAL COMMENTS AND CLOSING THOUGHTS:</strong></span>\n\nTomorrow nights  and the Tokyo open should be an interesting two or three hours to follow.  If you are not already in a trade I would sit back and watch rather than jumping in as I can only imagine there will be massive swings in the JPY pairs. In addition, Kuroda speaks twice once Sunday night and once again early Monday morning before the European open. This should add some spice to the start of the trading week.\n\nThere are one or two tasty news events in the week. I will be watching the GBP closely. After the 1,000 pip sell off we have rallied back and as the world should know by now the UK economy is in very, very poor shape. I think that we could be heading back to 1.5000 again, if the data dump this week falls the right way for bearish traders.\n\nAs usual trade clever, trade within your money management limits and keep to your trading plan.\n\nGood luck,\n\n&nbsp;\n\nScott Pickering\nThe Pip Accumulator\nSaturday 13th April 2013.\n\n&nbsp;','THE EUROZONE IS SO F***ED UP...WE JUST NEED DRAGHI & MERKEL TO FINALLY ADMIT IT','','publish','open','closed','','gold-the-eurozone-is-completely-fed-up-we-just-need-draghi-germany-to-admit-it','','','2013-04-13 11:02:36','2013-04-13 16:02:36','',0,'http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/?p=1613',0,'post','',0),(1589,1,'2013-04-06 10:10:54','2013-04-06 15:10:54','<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong> 1. INTRODUCTION:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nThere was a lot of news in the past week to get your teeth into regarding the forex market, and, it was without doubt the best forex trading week of 2013........well....it was for me anyway!\r\n\r\nCentral Banks reported left right and centre throughout the week but, Kuroda at the BOJ took centre stage and delivered more than the markets expected. Since I started trading currencies, this was the first time that I can recall that the BOJ actually delivered.\r\n\r\nThe BOJ press conference release moved all Yen pairs throughout the night in Asia and  it carried on through Europe and then carried on in the North American market. The USD/JPY moved about 300 pips from lows to highs on the day...fantastic. I really believe that there is a lot more to come, maybe not as much as some analysts are talking about, one TV pundit is talking in terms of a possible 110.00....that seems a bit much for me, but we have gone from 92.80 pre press conference to 97.75 yesterday....just short of 500 pips in two days.....wow!! This pair is definitely one not to step in front of or try to fade for sometime yet.....I think? Be very careful if you think you can pick a top and fade.\r\n\r\nCompare the BOJ with Draghi\'s lack lustre performance at the ECB press conference it was \"Chalk and Cheese\". Personally I do not believe what he said or what was written in his pre-determined press release,or his statements during the question time section were the truth. I think he was very economical with the truth, and, at the end of the day all he wanted to create was a short covering rally in the EUR/USD. Going into the meeting the EUR was under pressure, in particular the EUR/USD. If a short covering was his goal, and I believe it was, he achieved his goal but the effects will only be short lived in my opinion.\r\n\r\nAll in all, a great personal week I took great pips long the USD/JPY and some great profits on the EUR/USD short and GBP/USD short earlier in the week. We actually had a trend that stuck for 48 hours. Having said that there is still so much inter-market divergences it\'s a weird market place.\r\n\r\nLook at Gold about to test $1525 soon below there I see $1300. Copper is breaking down, we are now below $3.40. I keep saying it, but when the S&amp;P finally stops grinding higher the Aussie, Kiwi and Loonie are going to rip like f**k. Personally, I want to be right in front of my machine when it happens. There should be huge pip moves in the offing and all I want it a big chunk of the middle of these moves. I do not need to pick tops or bottoms, just give me a chunk of the meat in the middle.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>2. THE VIEW FROM MY TRADING DESK:</strong></span>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>SO...DRAGHI THINKS ALL IS PROGRESSING WELL WITHIN THE EUROZONE...INTERESTING!!</strong></p>\r\nEvery month I always look forward to the ECB press conference. There is always something I find to take away, chew over and keep it in the back of my mind when placing trades. As a fundamental trader first, I find that this process works for me quite well.\r\n\r\nLast Thursday, I found something lacking; something was not right at the ECB, and, certainly I thought that Draghi struggled. He basically sat there and delivered a speech that for me basically said nothing new, in fact, he appears to be saying the same thing month after month but he just changes the sentence order around. Pure regurgitation of the same old, same old! If you had landed from another planet without knowledge of the Eurozone and attended the ECB press conference you would think that listening to Draghi that the Eurozone is brilliant and all is well and wonderful. Was Draghi talking bull, camel or cow s**t.\r\n\r\nI was really gobsmacked...we had seen in the past thirty days a series of Eurozone blunders that even I did not think was possible. The Eurozone economic performances country by country is just getting worse and worse and yet Draghi performed a modern-day \"Pontius Pilate\" on the whole affair. His tone was that everything was just fine and dandy. When he said that there was no real discussion on an interest rate cut, I thought bulls**t...... that was the cue for the markets to buy EUR. I firmly believe that this was what he wanted. A short covering rally to take the pressure off all the bad news that had been driving the EUR/USD towards 52 week lows. I just cannot believe that with the Eurozone periphery so far down the toilet economically, there was not a serious discussion to cut rates to help them.\r\n\r\nAlthough I have written many, many times over the last few months that  the Eurozone is all about German intentions, needs and desires, and to hell with the other member states, I always thought that some balance would apply at some level, maybe the ECB.....alas not. For Christmas my best friend bought me a copy of the book by Harold James \"Making The European Union\".  It\'s heavy to follow as you can imagine. There are a few interesting sections....I just want to mention one line regarding the union.... \"One country-One vote\"...my arse it is. Germany contribute the bulk in $$$ and therefore the periphery counts for bugger all.\r\n\r\nOver the last 30 days, the biggest screw up in the history of Eurozone communications took place over Cyprus. At the ECB press conference Draghi was questioned over his role and that of the ECB  in the f**k up. On the day  before the news broke from Cyprus to the world, the ECB and Draghi signed off on the original \"Bail-in\" that took money from all bank deposit accounts, including those with balances under EUR 100,000.00 which, were allegedly protected under Eurozone legislation. The day  the news was  released, there was a huge backlash, causing a huge backtrack from the Eurozone. Draghi glibly dismissed the backtrack by saying \"The plan A\" was not a smart idea....no kidding!! Draghi was not pushed at all by the attendees at the press conference. Personally, I thought this very poor and hugely disappointing considering the implications. Despite all the press communications and denials , followed by confirmations, we have a template for future Eurozone periphery \"bail-ins\". This is huge news whichever way you slice it......and it\'s definitely not good news for the Eurozone.  A great opportunity to press Draghi was missed. Nobody even raised the subject of the Cyprus financial controls in place on day-to-day banking that have now been extended twice. There will be a run on the banks as soon as these controls are lifted, that is unless the controls stay in place for a least a year or two allowing most accounts to deplete on a drip feed basis week by week. Eurozone officials have their heads so far up their own asses they cannot see, never mind hear the damage they are creating in Cyprus. The country is doomed......that is putting it mildly it\'s fu***d.\r\n\r\nMoving away from Cyprus.......all in the Eurozone is wonderful according to Draghi. But what about France...??? The Finance Minister Moscovic is looking for leniency from Germany regarding the current account deficit. It looks like two years extra is required for France to come in line on limits set by Brussels, or should I have written Frankfurt or maybe even Berlin?  The poor French, God love them played their joker by stating that Germany needs a strong French presence in the Eurozone. As usual the French are having an inflated opinion of themselves in this regard. As far as Berlin is concerned France is also a periphery country. The love affair with Berlin ended as soon as Szarkozy was booted out and replaced by the lack lustre performer Hollande.\r\n\r\nSpanish and Italian banks were in the news again with both Fitch and Moody\'s talking  about stresses and continuing negative outlooks.  So much debt in the Spanish banks revolves around social security indebtedness,I think the percentage is in the high 90s,  it\'s incredible and hugely concerning although little attention is being paid to it right now. The Spanish regions are still up the Swanee regarding funding. In Italy the political turmoil, or rather farce continues with Bersani saying anyone who wants to assume power right now is basically an idiot and stupid. The only good news out of Spain and Italy is that 10 year yields are now well and truly below 5% for both countries.\r\n\r\nContinual poor GDP releases show that most of  the Eurozone is deep in recession. The Irish once again dropped back into the red. France\'s numbers are pitiful and as for Spain, Italy and Greece there are so many issues its not good news at all. There is no aid to promote growth to generate a positive GDP. Statements from the German Finance Minister Schaeuble do not help; his latest, classic quote... \"Austerity is not incompatible with growth\". Not so sure the Eurozone periphery would agree. As these politicians on acid?\r\n\r\nI fear that in the Eurozone hundreds of thousands of people are in danger of losing money sometime in the future unless there is a growth strategy introduced. I know many of these issues are not directly under the remit of the ECB, Draghi uses the line \"within limits\" quite a bit. It was good news to hear a few months ago that he was acting in line with his responsibilities but we have moved on a great deal recently and I think Draghi\'s performance was a cop out in nearly every area. He did put things away in a locked drawer and ignore areas that he should be integral to, or at least have an opinion on. This was a lesson learnt from the politicians he observes in the Eurozone on a day to day basis on how to kick a can down the road.\r\n\r\nSo all in all \"Super Mario\"...... \"We (ECB) will do all it takes...believe me\" needs to open his eyes and ears and smell the coffee. The Eurozone is completely fu***d up and not in good order at all. To conduct that press conference the way he did was an insult to the European people, I believe it was pure German lip service. All Draghi achieved was a respite in the EUR/USD pressure by creating a short covering rally. I expected and the voters expected a great deal more. At times it was so unreal to listen to it was laughable.\r\n\r\nAll the above said...How do we play the EUR/USD going forward?\r\n\r\nFollowing the poor U.S. Non Farm Payrolls yesterday, I expected the EUR/USD to march towards 1.3100. It never really happened we stopped around 1.3050 and pulled back ending the week below 1.3000 at 1.2990. After the Non Farm release I had the following trade in mind..... look to short EUR/USD at 1.3100, yesterday I missed the short at 1.3050 to get my trade going.....  I think that fact that we closed the week below 1.3000 has me thinking that we could be returning towards 1.2750 and not heading to 1.3100. The Eurozone fundamentals are so f***ed up I just don\'t see 1.3100.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>3. MY LONGER TERM TRADES:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nI do not have any long-term trades at the moment.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>4. LOOKING AHEAD INTO THIS COMING WEEK.....THE KEY SUPPORT and RESISTANCE LEVELS IN THE USD MAJORS.</strong></span>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.2990. </strong>I think that we ended the week with a bearish tone as we pulled back from what I thought was a nailed on 1.3100 squeeze. The immediate levels this week are short side 1.2900 (if this breaks we will be re-testing 1.2750..no fear) and the resistance to watch is 1.3050. If we can break through this level 1.3100 is next. I still think 1.3100 would be a great place to go short.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/EURUSD-MONTHLY-060413.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1603\" alt=\"EURUSD MONTHLY 060413\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/EURUSD-MONTHLY-060413.png\" width=\"660\"  /></a></span>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.5335. </strong>When we broke through 1.5260, I never thought we would move so far. 1.5350 has held so far but unless we see a sympathy vote from the GBP in line with the EUR to head lower I think we are heading to 1.5600 following this breakout. The cross-rate effect of the EUR/GBP will also influence cable as we go forward. I am more in the bullish camp to 1.5600 than the bearish camp back to 1.5000. The levels to interest me initially this week are 1.5260 support and 1.5400 resistance.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1604\" alt=\"GBPUSD DAILY 06042013\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/GBPUSD-DAILY-06042013.png\" width=\"660\" />\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>AUD/USD: Closing Price 1.0382. </strong>We are now below and closed below 1.0400. This is significant and the results from the unemployment statistics this week if poor will send this pair tumbling towards 1.0200 and then 1.0150 and parity. The levels are 1.0350 to 1.0440.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8431. </strong>We closed just below resistance at 0.8450. This pair has held up very well. Yesterday we were in danger of a breakdown through 1.0370 towards 1.0350. This pair left the Aussie behind and the Kiwi strengthened. Levels this week are support at 1.0350 and resistance immediate is 0.8450 (may be a good place to try a short) beyond this level it\'s 0.8520.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.0175. </strong>We broke thru 1.0200 on the back of poor employment data yesterday and then the loonie strengthened on the back of blow out IVEY PMi stats later on yesterday to take the pair back below 1.0200. One might say a typical day for the aptly named loonie. We are range bound and support is as 1.0100 and resistance is at 1.0250.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/JPY: Closing Price 97.54. </strong>The steam train was re-fuelled and headed north once again.....do not stand in front of this train. Please do not try to pick a top to fade. To me it looks like 100.00 is the objective and I read a few things saying 110.00 could be on. I think that that level maybe a bit far too quickly, too soon. This is a buy on pullbacks trade....what is a good pullback? We may not get good pullbacks. The USD/JPY works in round numbers so 97.00 may offer and a good level to get long. Whether we get there is debatable.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.9347. </strong>This pair has quietly fallen away and I think that the Eurozone uncertainty is fuelling matters here. The movement of money out of the Eurozone is going to gain greater momentum over the next few weeks and this will weigh on the CHF pairs. The rumblings from the SNB on paying for deposits will raise it\'s head more and more if inflows set a pace that the SNB are not comfortable with. The areas to watch with this pair are 0.9250 support to 0.9420 resistance.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>5. THE MAJOR NEWS ITEMS THAT INTEREST ME THIS WEEK:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD - FOMC Minutes.\r\nWEDNESDAY: AUD - Unemployment Rate and Statistics.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: USD - Core Retail Sales, PPi an Retail Sales.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: USD - Bernanke speaks...all hail the FED chairman.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>6. CLOSING THOUGHTS AND FINAL COMMENTS:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nComing up it should be a quieter week. It certainly will be on the predetermined news events but the usual cocktail of sound-bytes and mis-quotes will be there so as usual, we need to be aware that these ad hoc news items can happen at anytime. In particular, the Eurozone will offer so many opportunities we just have to be careful with trade sizes.\r\n\r\nThe JPY I think will soldier on and I believe the train will not stop until we hit 100.00. That number is such a magnate, we have to go there before there can be any talk of a pullback.\r\n\r\nFinally, this is important. North Korea could scupper all. If North Korea start to get more bolshy and actually fire something somewhere.....all bets will be off. The USD and JPY will strengthen like crazy in my opinion. Bear this in mind.\r\n\r\nGood luck, be careful and make money,\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nSaturday 6th April 2013\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','SO...DRAGHI THINKS ALL IS PROGRESSING WELL WITHIN THE EUROZONE...INTERESTING!!','','publish','open','closed','','draghi-finds-his-own-can-to-kick-down-the-road','','','2014-01-20 13:49:57','2014-01-20 18:49:57','',0,'http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/?p=1589',0,'post','',0),(3003,16,'2014-01-17 14:31:05','2014-01-17 19:31:05','09.11.2013\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">1. INTRODUCTION:</span></b>\r\n\r\nWow…that was some week.\r\n\r\nBetween Draghi surprising the markets with an ECB interest rate cut of 0.25%, the U.S.GDP at 2.8% and Non Farm Payrolls, the data / news events have certainly confirmed in my mind what direction to trade the fx market moving forward.\r\n\r\nOver recent weeks I have felt a little “wishy-washy” in some decision-making, and I have been to some extent convincing myself that I was a 100% convinced on what the markets were telling me. The technicals / charts made some sense but the fundamentals were telling me something different…but I still traded in line with the technicals. At one point I even became a “Scalper” trader something that I am not good at, or like, but the trades just did not seem correct for anything other than a few minutes.\r\n\r\nThis uncertainty has now come to an end. Without doubt I am certain in my mind what to do and I have a plan.\r\n\r\nAlthough, it absolutely killed me, I ignored trading Non-Farm payroll yesterday (Friday), I had no live trades prior to the data release. In recent weeks I have had very mixed results and I did not want a poor NFP to screw up what had been a good weeks trading, so I sidelined myself.  I listened to the news, wrote down levels for the EUR/USD, NZD/USD and AUD/USD and went into the garden with my dogs and collected “Dog Poop”. I was away for about an hour.  My predictions were not too bad…damn… I could have made $$$!\r\n\r\nThere is a currency market everyday. I am now looking for pullbacks to sell into in a vast range of currency pairs that are now on my radar. There are thousands of pips available so I do not need to worry about missing a 100-pip drop after NFP across the three trades that I would have entered.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">2. THE VIEW FROM MY TRADING DESK:</span></b>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">I BELIEVE THAT THE SMART MONEY IS LEAVING EQUITIES AND MOVING INTO CASH</span></b></p>\r\nSo much happened last week that I am going to try to be concise, although it will be difficult…I am from Liverpool after all!  The news events and data releases have, in my mind, confirmed what I have been thinking for a few months from around late summer and now my plan can be put in place for the next few months.\r\n\r\nI believe that the “Smart money” investors in equities are already ahead of me and some of what was confirmed this week has already sparked a chain reaction with the key movers and shakers. I really think they are moving if they have not already moved away from equities.\r\n\r\nI think that we are now very close to the top of the U.S. equity “Bull Run”. This fact is key in everything that I am thinking of looking forward, but outside of the U.S. additional things have happened that will help me place a direction on forex trading for the foreseeable future.\r\n\r\nHere are my thoughts: -\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>1. THE ECB (European Central Bank)</strong></span>\r\n\r\nWhat was very interesting for me reading the notes from the press conference was that Draghi kept his forward guidance unchanged. In ECB talk, this means that the present rates will be kept where they are now for an extended period of time. This actually hints at the possibility of negative rates. Finally, he kept the LTRO (Long Term Refinancing Option) in full to at least the end of 2015. This was big news.\r\n\r\nThe Eurozone is in crisis.\r\n\r\nI have written several times after watching ECB press conferences that Draghi’s body language was saying the opposite of his mouth. He was shifty, twitchy, hand movements were wild and at times he was also very croaky with his voice in his delivery. This points to him hiding his true thoughts. He was trying his best to camouflage issues around growth and hide deflation in the periphery.\r\n\r\nThe Eurozone is run as if all member countries were provinces / regions of Germany. Germany’s low rate inflation policy of years and years was used as the approach. It may be successful in Germany but that does not mean it would be successful throughout the single currency zone. As I have stated on numerous occasions 17 into 1 does not go. One policy is difficult to implement to cover the whole Eurozone area exactly the same from country to country. 17 counties using the same chequebook does NOT work. There is integration talk on major policies that are repeatedly referred to such as, “Banking Unions” and “Taxation Efficiencies and Harmonies”…. it’s never going to happen or integrate effectively. It’s apparently vital to the success of the Eurozone. If these two factors were vital they would be in place by now. The reason neither of these two examples is in place is because there is no harmony, no agreements on implementation, management, review etc., plain and simple.\r\n\r\nI am not going to list Eurozone issues other than list the following headings that spring straight to mind: -\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong>GDP</strong>\r\n<strong> UNEMPLOYMENT</strong>\r\n<strong> HOUSING</strong>\r\n<strong> CPi</strong>\r\n<strong> DEFLATION</strong>\r\n<strong> BAD DEBT</strong>\r\n<strong> SOCIAL UNREST</strong>\r\n<strong> SOCIAL SERVICES</strong>\r\n<strong> HEALTH CUTBACKS</strong></p>\r\nAs the interest rate cut will make the EUR carry trade less attractive sellers will come into the market and the EUR value will lower. This will help exporters, but ignoring all that, it gives us as fx traders an edge and a direction to trade. The EUR/USD will head lower.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>2. IMPROVING U.S. DATA GDP  and TAPERING</strong></span>\r\n\r\n45 minutes after the Draghi rate cut bombshell the U.S. GDP figures were released. GDP growth at 2.8%, a blowout number. What government shutdown?\r\nThe calls for tapering from the FED are approaching volume level 100. Sooner rather than later tapering will happen. This will strengthen the USD, I am not so sure what this will do for the housing recovery, which, incidentally seems to be ramping up and prices are jumping like crazy. As a trader USD strength should enter the market. The EUR/USD will head lower.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>3. USD/JPY FAILED BREAKOUT</strong></span>\r\n\r\nAfter the GDP release the USD/JPY broke out of the weekly triangle pattern that had been containing prices in a range of 96.80 to 99.00. It blasted through, and then pulled back over 180 pips.\r\n\r\nOn the daily chart there is now a massive red reversal candle. Usually following a massive breakout failure the reversal is normally very powerful. I think the only reason we never saw a massive move was because 24 hours later the key NFP release was due.\r\n\r\nIn the coming sessions, the USD/JPY is set to move lower in my opinion. It steadied again yesterday (Friday) after NFP, but this in my opinion will be just temporary. This will place pressure on equities. As equities fall the USD will strengthen. The EUR/USD will head lower.\r\n\r\n<strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">4. THE S&amp;P IS NOW READY FOR A CORRECTION</span></strong>\r\n\r\nI think as long as we have the FED “Free Money” being circulated; the upward pressure will remain in place in the equity markets. Technically we are at extremes in the S&amp;P charts.\r\nThe markets are just in buy mode only; I think it’s crazy and complacent. The swings between up days and down days are now triple digit, it’s uncertainty in the markets driving this volatility. We are due a correction. The line is the sand to define bullish or bearish sentiment is 1728.\r\n\r\nMy problem is I do not see a small correction. I see a 20% minimum pullback / correction in the S&amp;P towards 1300 S&amp;P points, maybe more 1250-1280 looks a better support area.\r\n\r\nRed lights and alarm bells are going off in my head. The ECB has acted so fast it’s out of the normal…there are huge issues ahead facing Draghi and Merkel. The Fed is going to taper, probably sooner rather than later, the data in the U.S. is getting better. At the same time the Eurozone is in poor shape.\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>Gold is on the cusp of a breakdown, it is struggling with $1300; it is not going up, it fell to $1285 yesterday (Friday). I see a challenge of $1250 again very soon and then I suspect we head lower. Gold is a hedge against inflation…what inflation…where is it?</li>\r\n	<li>Oil is falling back below $100.</li>\r\n	<li>Copper is struggling to maintain $3.30.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nAll of these factors add to USD strength. Correlations count and mean something in trading. All of these factors influence my decision making process.\r\n\r\nYou should also note in the past 7 days the AUD/USD, one of my lead indicators has fallen over 200 pips. This has happened at a time the Dow Jones and S&amp;P have reached “all time” new highs. Divergence…lead indicator…we must take note.\r\n\r\nThe only factor that is unknown is, how are the numpties in Washington going to react when the debt ceiling and party political issues in Washington rise up in January / February next year?\r\n\r\nHaving reflected upon all the above factors, I still believe that the smart money is exiting equities and reverting to cash. I believe this despite all the calls for a “Santa Claus” rally into the New Year. Just because it always happens does not mean it has to every year.\r\n\r\nWhat keeps plaguing me is the effect on the EUR/USD, with so many influencers affecting it: - the very recent JPY failure, the introduction of tapering, the effects of ECB Growth and Deflation and U.S. equity pullbacks. The EUR/USD could be trading below 1.3000 maybe even below 1.2500 in the coming months, maybe even lower.\r\n\r\nI have charts below with my targets on my three favourite currencies to trade EUR/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD. Later in the blog, I have my projected objectives on my radar trades (there are lots of them) later in the blog as usual the entry levels are critical. I have placed limit and stop orders with my broker on all of these trades already.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/EURUSD-MONTHLY-09112013-1024x526.png\"><img src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/EURUSD-MONTHLY-09112013-1024x526.png\" alt=\"EURUSD-MONTHLY-09112013-1024x526\" width=\"1024\" height=\"526\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-3000\" /></a>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/AUDUSD-MONTHLY-09112013-1024x526.png\"><img src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/AUDUSD-MONTHLY-09112013-1024x526.png\" alt=\"AUDUSD-MONTHLY-09112013-1024x526\" width=\"1024\" height=\"526\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-3001\" /></a>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/NZDUSD-MONTHLY-09112013-1024x526.png\"><img src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/NZDUSD-MONTHLY-09112013-1024x526.png\" alt=\"NZDUSD-MONTHLY-09112013-1024x526\" width=\"1024\" height=\"526\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-3002\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong><em>Over the coming sessions I will be looking very closely at levels and correlations. I think that I have written the following several times over the years of writing my forex blog.</em></strong></p>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>1. Commodities lead the way: - Look at Gold, Oil and Copper</i></strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>2. Commodity currencies react: - The AUD/USD (a key lead indicator) has already shown divergence away from the S&amp;P. Also look at USD/CAD, USD/NOK and the USD/SEK.</i></strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>\r\n3. The Bond Market reacts: - Watch U.S. 10 year treasuries. As yields go up the USD/JPY sells off.</i></strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>\r\n4. Equities are last to the party: - This is where I think that the smart money has already moved out of equities because of the first 3 items in my list. The S&amp;P falls and this adds to USD strength.</i></strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><em><strong>My trades (EUR/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD) at this stage should move from the volatile stage to the very directional stage.</strong></em></p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">3. MY CURRENT LIVE TRADES:</span></b>\r\n\r\nI have no live trades at the moment.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">4. TRADES THAT ARE ON MY RADAR:</span></b>\r\n\r\nI have a lot of trades that are on my radar. Many of these may not trigger as my entries are based on levels that I feel comfortable with. The profit potential with these trades is huge and I may have to adjust entries over time based upon revised pullbacks.\r\n\r\nMy point to get across here is that I am waiting for the trades to come to me.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>1. EUR/USD\r\n</b><b>Short\r\n</b><b>Entry: 1.3450\r\n</b><b>Stop: 1.3510\r\n</b><b>Limit: 1.3150 (initial objective)</b><b> </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>2. AUD/USD\r\n</b><b>Short\r\n</b><b>Entry: 0.9425\r\n</b><b>Stop: 0.9550\r\n</b><b>Limit: 0.9000 (initial objective)</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>3. NZD/USD\r\n</b><b>Short\r\n</b><b>Entry: 0.8270\r\n</b><b>Stop: 0.8350\r\n</b><b>Limit: 0.8000 (initial objective)</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>4. USD/CAD\r\n</b><b>Long\r\n</b><b>Entry: 1.0445\r\n</b><b>Stop: 1.0380\r\n</b><b>Limit: 1.0580</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>5. USD/CHF\r\n</b><b>Long\r\n</b><b>Entry: 0.9150\r\n</b><b>Stop: 0.9050\r\n</b><b>Limit: 0.9450</b><b> </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>6. EUR/GBP\r\n</b><b>Short\r\n</b><b>Entry: 0.8370\r\n</b><b>Stop: 0.8420\r\n</b><b>Limit: 0.8000</b><b> </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>7. GBP/AUD\r\n</b><b>Long\r\n</b><b>Entry: 1.6920\r\n</b><b>Stop: 1.6650\r\n</b><b>Limit: 1.9240</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>8. EUR/AUD\r\n</b><b>Long\r\n</b><b>Entry: 1.4120\r\n</b><b>Stop: 1.3920\r\n</b><b>Limit: 1.4550</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>9. GBP/NZD\r\n</b><b>Long\r\n</b><b>Entry: 1.9350\r\n</b><b>Stop: 1.9250\r\n</b><b>Limit: 1.9800 (initial objective)</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>10. EUR/NZD\r\n</b><b>Long\r\n</b><b>Entry: 1.6120\r\n</b><b>Stop: 1.5980\r\n</b><b>Limit: 1.6435 (initial objective)</b><b> </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b> </b></p>\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">5. LOOKING FORWARD…THE KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS:</span></b>\r\n\r\n<b>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3364.</b>  From last Fridays’ close it’s about a 350 pip drop lower in the past 7 days. That is quite some move so I am expecting a little consolidation before resuming the move to the down side.<b> </b>Resistance should be really good at 1.3450 and it would be just brilliant to be able to establish an entry short around that level. Support is obviously at 1.3300 or 1.3295. Beyond those levels 1.3250 sits next. I do think that there is the potential for a real big move lower.\r\n\r\n<b>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.6012. </b>The support level of 1.6000 has been tested several times over the latter parts of last week but like a magnet the cable is pulled back to it. I think that whilst it is proving to be tough to crack it will break, in particular if the EUR/USD heads lower. Support is also good at 1.5900 should it break lower and resistance is stubborn at 1.6120.\r\n\r\n<b>AUD/USD: Closing Price 0.9384</b>.  Bias and sentiment has changed in the Aussie. We closed on Friday, over 200 pips lower in the week. The RBA has indicated once again that they feel the value of this pair to be too high. It should also be noted that as the equities markets reach new highs the AUD/USD has fallen. This is divergence and the correlation is broken. This pair is a lead indicator and this fact should not go unnoticed. Support is really good at 0.9250. Only minor support at 0.9300 stands in the way. Resistance will be good at 0.9400 and 0.9460. The bias is now bearish with this pair.\r\n\r\n<b>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8239</b>. I find this pair more stubborn than the Aussie to move lower. Wheeler at the RBNZ is still talking about rate increases early 2014 and this is hanging over this pair. We have edged lower in the past 7 days but only by about 40 pips. The AUD/USD has moved 5 times this movement lower by comparison. The range is 0.8200 support, to 0.8350 resistance.\r\n\r\n<b>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.0477.  </b>We are stuck in a range that is getting me bored. We need a break out 1.0400 to 1.0500. Trade the range if you feel you have to trade this pair.\r\n\r\n<b>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.9211.  </b>I missed the move higher with this pair and I am really annoyed with myself for doing so. The fresh range is 0.9150 support, to 0.9250 resistance.\r\n\r\n<b>USD/JPY: Closing Price 99.04. </b> I have made several predictions about the JPY recently and it still trades inside the Daily Chart Triangle pattern. I think it will break lower before heading higher and the recent false breakout backs up my point but we need to see some action. 96.80 and 97.40 are support levels and 99.20 resistance.<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">6. MAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:</span></b>\r\n\r\nSUNDAY: N/A\r\n\r\nMONDAY: N/A\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: GBP - CPi\r\nTUESDAY: NZD – RBNZ Wheeler talks.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: GBP – Unemployment Data.\r\nWEDNESDAY: GBP – BOE Carney speaks and BOE Inflation Report\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: GBP – Retail Sales.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: USD – FED Yellen testifies\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">7. FINAL THOUGHTS:</span></b>\r\n\r\nNot much by way of news that interests me this week.\r\n\r\nI will be spending most of my time trying to gain the best entry levels for my radar trades, at the same time checking the markets for a start of what I think will be pull backs / sell offs in equities.\r\n\r\nI will update in the middle of the week with the “Midweek Fx Fix”.\r\n\r\nGood luck and take care.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>Scott Pickering</strong>\r\n<strong>The Pip Accumulator</strong>\r\n<strong>Saturday November 9th 2013 </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>FOLLOW ME AT:</strong>\r\n<strong>Twitter: @pipaccumulator</strong>\r\n<strong>Google+/scottpickering</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>','I BELIEVE THAT THE SMART MONEY IS LEAVING EQUITIES AND MOVING INTO CASH','','inherit','open','closed','','2073-revision-v1','','','2014-01-17 14:31:05','2014-01-17 19:31:05','',2073,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/2073-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(2999,16,'2014-01-17 14:25:56','2014-01-17 19:25:56','09.11.2013\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">1. INTRODUCTION:</span></b>\r\n\r\nWow…that was some week.\r\n\r\nBetween Draghi surprising the markets with an ECB interest rate cut of 0.25%, the U.S.GDP at 2.8% and Non Farm Payrolls, the data / news events have certainly confirmed in my mind what direction to trade the fx market moving forward.\r\n\r\nOver recent weeks I have felt a little “wishy-washy” in some decision-making, and I have been to some extent convincing myself that I was a 100% convinced on what the markets were telling me. The technicals / charts made some sense but the fundamentals were telling me something different…but I still traded in line with the technicals. At one point I even became a “Scalper” trader something that I am not good at, or like, but the trades just did not seem correct for anything other than a few minutes.\r\n\r\nThis uncertainty has now come to an end. Without doubt I am certain in my mind what to do and I have a plan.\r\n\r\nAlthough, it absolutely killed me, I ignored trading Non-Farm payroll yesterday (Friday), I had no live trades prior to the data release. In recent weeks I have had very mixed results and I did not want a poor NFP to screw up what had been a good weeks trading, so I sidelined myself.  I listened to the news, wrote down levels for the EUR/USD, NZD/USD and AUD/USD and went into the garden with my dogs and collected “Dog Poop”. I was away for about an hour.  My predictions were not too bad…damn… I could have made $$$!\r\n\r\nThere is a currency market everyday. I am now looking for pullbacks to sell into in a vast range of currency pairs that are now on my radar. There are thousands of pips available so I do not need to worry about missing a 100-pip drop after NFP across the three trades that I would have entered.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">2. THE VIEW FROM MY TRADING DESK:</span></b>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">I BELIEVE THAT THE SMART MONEY IS LEAVING EQUITIES AND MOVING INTO CASH</span></b></p>\r\nSo much happened last week that I am going to try to be concise, although it will be difficult…I am from Liverpool after all!  The news events and data releases have, in my mind, confirmed what I have been thinking for a few months from around late summer and now my plan can be put in place for the next few months.\r\n\r\nI believe that the “Smart money” investors in equities are already ahead of me and some of what was confirmed this week has already sparked a chain reaction with the key movers and shakers. I really think they are moving if they have not already moved away from equities.\r\n\r\nI think that we are now very close to the top of the U.S. equity “Bull Run”. This fact is key in everything that I am thinking of looking forward, but outside of the U.S. additional things have happened that will help me place a direction on forex trading for the foreseeable future.\r\n\r\nHere are my thoughts: -\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>1. THE ECB (European Central Bank)</strong></span>\r\n\r\nWhat was very interesting for me reading the notes from the press conference was that Draghi kept his forward guidance unchanged. In ECB talk, this means that the present rates will be kept where they are now for an extended period of time. This actually hints at the possibility of negative rates. Finally, he kept the LTRO (Long Term Refinancing Option) in full to at least the end of 2015. This was big news.\r\n\r\nThe Eurozone is in crisis.\r\n\r\nI have written several times after watching ECB press conferences that Draghi’s body language was saying the opposite of his mouth. He was shifty, twitchy, hand movements were wild and at times he was also very croaky with his voice in his delivery. This points to him hiding his true thoughts. He was trying his best to camouflage issues around growth and hide deflation in the periphery.\r\n\r\nThe Eurozone is run as if all member countries were provinces / regions of Germany. Germany’s low rate inflation policy of years and years was used as the approach. It may be successful in Germany but that does not mean it would be successful throughout the single currency zone. As I have stated on numerous occasions 17 into 1 does not go. One policy is difficult to implement to cover the whole Eurozone area exactly the same from country to country. 17 counties using the same chequebook does NOT work. There is integration talk on major policies that are repeatedly referred to such as, “Banking Unions” and “Taxation Efficiencies and Harmonies”…. it’s never going to happen or integrate effectively. It’s apparently vital to the success of the Eurozone. If these two factors were vital they would be in place by now. The reason neither of these two examples is in place is because there is no harmony, no agreements on implementation, management, review etc., plain and simple.\r\n\r\nI am not going to list Eurozone issues other than list the following headings that spring straight to mind: -\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong>GDP</strong>\r\n<strong> UNEMPLOYMENT</strong>\r\n<strong> HOUSING</strong>\r\n<strong> CPi</strong>\r\n<strong> DEFLATION</strong>\r\n<strong> BAD DEBT</strong>\r\n<strong> SOCIAL UNREST</strong>\r\n<strong> SOCIAL SERVICES</strong>\r\n<strong> HEALTH CUTBACKS</strong></p>\r\nAs the interest rate cut will make the EUR carry trade less attractive sellers will come into the market and the EUR value will lower. This will help exporters, but ignoring all that, it gives us as fx traders an edge and a direction to trade. The EUR/USD will head lower.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>2. IMPROVING U.S. DATA GDP  and TAPERING</strong></span>\r\n\r\n45 minutes after the Draghi rate cut bombshell the U.S. GDP figures were released. GDP growth at 2.8%, a blowout number. What government shutdown?\r\nThe calls for tapering from the FED are approaching volume level 100. Sooner rather than later tapering will happen. This will strengthen the USD, I am not so sure what this will do for the housing recovery, which, incidentally seems to be ramping up and prices are jumping like crazy. As a trader USD strength should enter the market. The EUR/USD will head lower.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>3. USD/JPY FAILED BREAKOUT</strong></span>\r\n\r\nAfter the GDP release the USD/JPY broke out of the weekly triangle pattern that had been containing prices in a range of 96.80 to 99.00. It blasted through, and then pulled back over 180 pips.\r\n\r\nOn the daily chart there is now a massive red reversal candle. Usually following a massive breakout failure the reversal is normally very powerful. I think the only reason we never saw a massive move was because 24 hours later the key NFP release was due.\r\n\r\nIn the coming sessions, the USD/JPY is set to move lower in my opinion. It steadied again yesterday (Friday) after NFP, but this in my opinion will be just temporary. This will place pressure on equities. As equities fall the USD will strengthen. The EUR/USD will head lower.\r\n\r\n<strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">4. THE S&amp;P IS NOW READY FOR A CORRECTION</span></strong>\r\n\r\nI think as long as we have the FED “Free Money” being circulated; the upward pressure will remain in place in the equity markets. Technically we are at extremes in the S&amp;P charts.\r\nThe markets are just in buy mode only; I think it’s crazy and complacent. The swings between up days and down days are now triple digit, it’s uncertainty in the markets driving this volatility. We are due a correction. The line is the sand to define bullish or bearish sentiment is 1728.\r\n\r\nMy problem is I do not see a small correction. I see a 20% minimum pullback / correction in the S&amp;P towards 1300 S&amp;P points, maybe more 1250-1280 looks a better support area.\r\n\r\nRed lights and alarm bells are going off in my head. The ECB has acted so fast it’s out of the normal…there are huge issues ahead facing Draghi and Merkel. The Fed is going to taper, probably sooner rather than later, the data in the U.S. is getting better. At the same time the Eurozone is in poor shape.\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>Gold is on the cusp of a breakdown, it is struggling with $1300; it is not going up, it fell to $1285 yesterday (Friday). I see a challenge of $1250 again very soon and then I suspect we head lower. Gold is a hedge against inflation…what inflation…where is it?</li>\r\n	<li>Oil is falling back below $100.</li>\r\n	<li>Copper is struggling to maintain $3.30.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nAll of these factors add to USD strength. Correlations count and mean something in trading. All of these factors influence my decision making process.\r\n\r\nYou should also note in the past 7 days the AUD/USD, one of my lead indicators has fallen over 200 pips. This has happened at a time the Dow Jones and S&amp;P have reached “all time” new highs. Divergence…lead indicator…we must take note.\r\n\r\nThe only factor that is unknown is, how are the numpties in Washington going to react when the debt ceiling and party political issues in Washington rise up in January / February next year?\r\n\r\nHaving reflected upon all the above factors, I still believe that the smart money is exiting equities and reverting to cash. I believe this despite all the calls for a “Santa Claus” rally into the New Year. Just because it always happens does not mean it has to every year.\r\n\r\nWhat keeps plaguing me is the effect on the EUR/USD, with so many influencers affecting it: - the very recent JPY failure, the introduction of tapering, the effects of ECB Growth and Deflation and U.S. equity pullbacks. The EUR/USD could be trading below 1.3000 maybe even below 1.2500 in the coming months, maybe even lower.\r\n\r\nI have charts below with my targets on my three favourite currencies to trade EUR/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD. Later in the blog, I have my projected objectives on my radar trades (there are lots of them) later in the blog as usual the entry levels are critical. I have placed limit and stop orders with my broker on all of these trades already.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/EURUSD-MONTHLY-09112013.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-2077\" alt=\"EURUSD MONTHLY 09112013\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/EURUSD-MONTHLY-09112013-1024x526.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"526\" /></a> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/AUDUSD-MONTHLY-09112013.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-2078\" alt=\"AUDUSD MONTHLY 09112013\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/AUDUSD-MONTHLY-09112013-1024x526.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"526\" /></a> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/NZDUSD-MONTHLY-09112013.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-2079\" alt=\"NZDUSD MONTHLY 09112013\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/NZDUSD-MONTHLY-09112013-1024x526.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"526\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong><em>Over the coming sessions I will be looking very closely at levels and correlations. I think that I have written the following several times over the years of writing my forex blog.</em></strong></p>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>1. Commodities lead the way: - Look at Gold, Oil and Copper</i></strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>2. Commodity currencies react: - The AUD/USD (a key lead indicator) has already shown divergence away from the S&amp;P. Also look at USD/CAD, USD/NOK and the USD/SEK.</i></strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>\r\n3. The Bond Market reacts: - Watch U.S. 10 year treasuries. As yields go up the USD/JPY sells off.</i></strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>\r\n4. Equities are last to the party: - This is where I think that the smart money has already moved out of equities because of the first 3 items in my list. The S&amp;P falls and this adds to USD strength.</i></strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><em><strong>My trades (EUR/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD) at this stage should move from the volatile stage to the very directional stage.</strong></em></p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">3. MY CURRENT LIVE TRADES:</span></b>\r\n\r\nI have no live trades at the moment.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">4. TRADES THAT ARE ON MY RADAR:</span></b>\r\n\r\nI have a lot of trades that are on my radar. Many of these may not trigger as my entries are based on levels that I feel comfortable with. The profit potential with these trades is huge and I may have to adjust entries over time based upon revised pullbacks.\r\n\r\nMy point to get across here is that I am waiting for the trades to come to me.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>1. EUR/USD\r\n</b><b>Short\r\n</b><b>Entry: 1.3450\r\n</b><b>Stop: 1.3510\r\n</b><b>Limit: 1.3150 (initial objective)</b><b> </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>2. AUD/USD\r\n</b><b>Short\r\n</b><b>Entry: 0.9425\r\n</b><b>Stop: 0.9550\r\n</b><b>Limit: 0.9000 (initial objective)</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>3. NZD/USD\r\n</b><b>Short\r\n</b><b>Entry: 0.8270\r\n</b><b>Stop: 0.8350\r\n</b><b>Limit: 0.8000 (initial objective)</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>4. USD/CAD\r\n</b><b>Long\r\n</b><b>Entry: 1.0445\r\n</b><b>Stop: 1.0380\r\n</b><b>Limit: 1.0580</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>5. USD/CHF\r\n</b><b>Long\r\n</b><b>Entry: 0.9150\r\n</b><b>Stop: 0.9050\r\n</b><b>Limit: 0.9450</b><b> </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>6. EUR/GBP\r\n</b><b>Short\r\n</b><b>Entry: 0.8370\r\n</b><b>Stop: 0.8420\r\n</b><b>Limit: 0.8000</b><b> </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>7. GBP/AUD\r\n</b><b>Long\r\n</b><b>Entry: 1.6920\r\n</b><b>Stop: 1.6650\r\n</b><b>Limit: 1.9240</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>8. EUR/AUD\r\n</b><b>Long\r\n</b><b>Entry: 1.4120\r\n</b><b>Stop: 1.3920\r\n</b><b>Limit: 1.4550</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>9. GBP/NZD\r\n</b><b>Long\r\n</b><b>Entry: 1.9350\r\n</b><b>Stop: 1.9250\r\n</b><b>Limit: 1.9800 (initial objective)</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>10. EUR/NZD\r\n</b><b>Long\r\n</b><b>Entry: 1.6120\r\n</b><b>Stop: 1.5980\r\n</b><b>Limit: 1.6435 (initial objective)</b><b> </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b> </b></p>\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">5. LOOKING FORWARD…THE KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS:</span></b>\r\n\r\n<b>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3364.</b>  From last Fridays’ close it’s about a 350 pip drop lower in the past 7 days. That is quite some move so I am expecting a little consolidation before resuming the move to the down side.<b> </b>Resistance should be really good at 1.3450 and it would be just brilliant to be able to establish an entry short around that level. Support is obviously at 1.3300 or 1.3295. Beyond those levels 1.3250 sits next. I do think that there is the potential for a real big move lower.\r\n\r\n<b>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.6012. </b>The support level of 1.6000 has been tested several times over the latter parts of last week but like a magnet the cable is pulled back to it. I think that whilst it is proving to be tough to crack it will break, in particular if the EUR/USD heads lower. Support is also good at 1.5900 should it break lower and resistance is stubborn at 1.6120.\r\n\r\n<b>AUD/USD: Closing Price 0.9384</b>.  Bias and sentiment has changed in the Aussie. We closed on Friday, over 200 pips lower in the week. The RBA has indicated once again that they feel the value of this pair to be too high. It should also be noted that as the equities markets reach new highs the AUD/USD has fallen. This is divergence and the correlation is broken. This pair is a lead indicator and this fact should not go unnoticed. Support is really good at 0.9250. Only minor support at 0.9300 stands in the way. Resistance will be good at 0.9400 and 0.9460. The bias is now bearish with this pair.\r\n\r\n<b>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8239</b>. I find this pair more stubborn than the Aussie to move lower. Wheeler at the RBNZ is still talking about rate increases early 2014 and this is hanging over this pair. We have edged lower in the past 7 days but only by about 40 pips. The AUD/USD has moved 5 times this movement lower by comparison. The range is 0.8200 support, to 0.8350 resistance.\r\n\r\n<b>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.0477.  </b>We are stuck in a range that is getting me bored. We need a break out 1.0400 to 1.0500. Trade the range if you feel you have to trade this pair.\r\n\r\n<b>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.9211.  </b>I missed the move higher with this pair and I am really annoyed with myself for doing so. The fresh range is 0.9150 support, to 0.9250 resistance.\r\n\r\n<b>USD/JPY: Closing Price 99.04. </b> I have made several predictions about the JPY recently and it still trades inside the Daily Chart Triangle pattern. I think it will break lower before heading higher and the recent false breakout backs up my point but we need to see some action. 96.80 and 97.40 are support levels and 99.20 resistance.<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">6. MAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:</span></b>\r\n\r\nSUNDAY: N/A\r\n\r\nMONDAY: N/A\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: GBP - CPi\r\nTUESDAY: NZD – RBNZ Wheeler talks.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: GBP – Unemployment Data.\r\nWEDNESDAY: GBP – BOE Carney speaks and BOE Inflation Report\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: GBP – Retail Sales.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: USD – FED Yellen testifies\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">7. FINAL THOUGHTS:</span></b>\r\n\r\nNot much by way of news that interests me this week.\r\n\r\nI will be spending most of my time trying to gain the best entry levels for my radar trades, at the same time checking the markets for a start of what I think will be pull backs / sell offs in equities.\r\n\r\nI will update in the middle of the week with the “Midweek Fx Fix”.\r\n\r\nGood luck and take care.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>Scott Pickering</strong>\r\n<strong>The Pip Accumulator</strong>\r\n<strong>Saturday November 9th 2013 </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>FOLLOW ME AT:</strong>\r\n<strong>Twitter: @pipaccumulator</strong>\r\n<strong>Google+/scottpickering</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>','I BELIEVE THAT THE SMART MONEY IS LEAVING EQUITIES AND MOVING INTO CASH','','inherit','open','closed','','2073-revision-v1','','','2014-01-17 14:25:56','2014-01-17 19:25:56','',2073,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/2073-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(2998,16,'2014-01-17 14:30:57','2014-01-17 19:30:57','09.11.2013\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">1. INTRODUCTION:</span></b>\n\nWow…that was some week.\n\nBetween Draghi surprising the markets with an ECB interest rate cut of 0.25%, the U.S.GDP at 2.8% and Non Farm Payrolls, the data / news events have certainly confirmed in my mind what direction to trade the fx market moving forward.\n\nOver recent weeks I have felt a little “wishy-washy” in some decision-making, and I have been to some extent convincing myself that I was a 100% convinced on what the markets were telling me. The technicals / charts made some sense but the fundamentals were telling me something different…but I still traded in line with the technicals. At one point I even became a “Scalper” trader something that I am not good at, or like, but the trades just did not seem correct for anything other than a few minutes.\n\nThis uncertainty has now come to an end. Without doubt I am certain in my mind what to do and I have a plan.\n\nAlthough, it absolutely killed me, I ignored trading Non-Farm payroll yesterday (Friday), I had no live trades prior to the data release. In recent weeks I have had very mixed results and I did not want a poor NFP to screw up what had been a good weeks trading, so I sidelined myself.  I listened to the news, wrote down levels for the EUR/USD, NZD/USD and AUD/USD and went into the garden with my dogs and collected “Dog Poop”. I was away for about an hour.  My predictions were not too bad…damn… I could have made $$$!\n\nThere is a currency market everyday. I am now looking for pullbacks to sell into in a vast range of currency pairs that are now on my radar. There are thousands of pips available so I do not need to worry about missing a 100-pip drop after NFP across the three trades that I would have entered.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">2. THE VIEW FROM MY TRADING DESK:</span></b>\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">I BELIEVE THAT THE SMART MONEY IS LEAVING EQUITIES AND MOVING INTO CASH</span></b></p>\nSo much happened last week that I am going to try to be concise, although it will be difficult…I am from Liverpool after all!  The news events and data releases have, in my mind, confirmed what I have been thinking for a few months from around late summer and now my plan can be put in place for the next few months.\n\nI believe that the “Smart money” investors in equities are already ahead of me and some of what was confirmed this week has already sparked a chain reaction with the key movers and shakers. I really think they are moving if they have not already moved away from equities.\n\nI think that we are now very close to the top of the U.S. equity “Bull Run”. This fact is key in everything that I am thinking of looking forward, but outside of the U.S. additional things have happened that will help me place a direction on forex trading for the foreseeable future.\n\nHere are my thoughts: -\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>1. THE ECB (European Central Bank)</strong></span>\n\nWhat was very interesting for me reading the notes from the press conference was that Draghi kept his forward guidance unchanged. In ECB talk, this means that the present rates will be kept where they are now for an extended period of time. This actually hints at the possibility of negative rates. Finally, he kept the LTRO (Long Term Refinancing Option) in full to at least the end of 2015. This was big news.\n\nThe Eurozone is in crisis.\n\nI have written several times after watching ECB press conferences that Draghi’s body language was saying the opposite of his mouth. He was shifty, twitchy, hand movements were wild and at times he was also very croaky with his voice in his delivery. This points to him hiding his true thoughts. He was trying his best to camouflage issues around growth and hide deflation in the periphery.\n\nThe Eurozone is run as if all member countries were provinces / regions of Germany. Germany’s low rate inflation policy of years and years was used as the approach. It may be successful in Germany but that does not mean it would be successful throughout the single currency zone. As I have stated on numerous occasions 17 into 1 does not go. One policy is difficult to implement to cover the whole Eurozone area exactly the same from country to country. 17 counties using the same chequebook does NOT work. There is integration talk on major policies that are repeatedly referred to such as, “Banking Unions” and “Taxation Efficiencies and Harmonies”…. it’s never going to happen or integrate effectively. It’s apparently vital to the success of the Eurozone. If these two factors were vital they would be in place by now. The reason neither of these two examples is in place is because there is no harmony, no agreements on implementation, management, review etc., plain and simple.\n\nI am not going to list Eurozone issues other than list the following headings that spring straight to mind: -\n<p align=\"center\"><strong>GDP</strong>\n<strong> UNEMPLOYMENT</strong>\n<strong> HOUSING</strong>\n<strong> CPi</strong>\n<strong> DEFLATION</strong>\n<strong> BAD DEBT</strong>\n<strong> SOCIAL UNREST</strong>\n<strong> SOCIAL SERVICES</strong>\n<strong> HEALTH CUTBACKS</strong></p>\nAs the interest rate cut will make the EUR carry trade less attractive sellers will come into the market and the EUR value will lower. This will help exporters, but ignoring all that, it gives us as fx traders an edge and a direction to trade. The EUR/USD will head lower.\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>2. IMPROVING U.S. DATA GDP  and TAPERING</strong></span>\n\n45 minutes after the Draghi rate cut bombshell the U.S. GDP figures were released. GDP growth at 2.8%, a blowout number. What government shutdown?\nThe calls for tapering from the FED are approaching volume level 100. Sooner rather than later tapering will happen. This will strengthen the USD, I am not so sure what this will do for the housing recovery, which, incidentally seems to be ramping up and prices are jumping like crazy. As a trader USD strength should enter the market. The EUR/USD will head lower.\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>3. USD/JPY FAILED BREAKOUT</strong></span>\n\nAfter the GDP release the USD/JPY broke out of the weekly triangle pattern that had been containing prices in a range of 96.80 to 99.00. It blasted through, and then pulled back over 180 pips.\n\nOn the daily chart there is now a massive red reversal candle. Usually following a massive breakout failure the reversal is normally very powerful. I think the only reason we never saw a massive move was because 24 hours later the key NFP release was due.\n\nIn the coming sessions, the USD/JPY is set to move lower in my opinion. It steadied again yesterday (Friday) after NFP, but this in my opinion will be just temporary. This will place pressure on equities. As equities fall the USD will strengthen. The EUR/USD will head lower.\n\n<strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">4. THE S&amp;P IS NOW READY FOR A CORRECTION</span></strong>\n\nI think as long as we have the FED “Free Money” being circulated; the upward pressure will remain in place in the equity markets. Technically we are at extremes in the S&amp;P charts.\nThe markets are just in buy mode only; I think it’s crazy and complacent. The swings between up days and down days are now triple digit, it’s uncertainty in the markets driving this volatility. We are due a correction. The line is the sand to define bullish or bearish sentiment is 1728.\n\nMy problem is I do not see a small correction. I see a 20% minimum pullback / correction in the S&amp;P towards 1300 S&amp;P points, maybe more 1250-1280 looks a better support area.\n\nRed lights and alarm bells are going off in my head. The ECB has acted so fast it’s out of the normal…there are huge issues ahead facing Draghi and Merkel. The Fed is going to taper, probably sooner rather than later, the data in the U.S. is getting better. At the same time the Eurozone is in poor shape.\n<ul>\n	<li>Gold is on the cusp of a breakdown, it is struggling with $1300; it is not going up, it fell to $1285 yesterday (Friday). I see a challenge of $1250 again very soon and then I suspect we head lower. Gold is a hedge against inflation…what inflation…where is it?</li>\n	<li>Oil is falling back below $100.</li>\n	<li>Copper is struggling to maintain $3.30.</li>\n</ul>\nAll of these factors add to USD strength. Correlations count and mean something in trading. All of these factors influence my decision making process.\n\nYou should also note in the past 7 days the AUD/USD, one of my lead indicators has fallen over 200 pips. This has happened at a time the Dow Jones and S&amp;P have reached “all time” new highs. Divergence…lead indicator…we must take note.\n\nThe only factor that is unknown is, how are the numpties in Washington going to react when the debt ceiling and party political issues in Washington rise up in January / February next year?\n\nHaving reflected upon all the above factors, I still believe that the smart money is exiting equities and reverting to cash. I believe this despite all the calls for a “Santa Claus” rally into the New Year. Just because it always happens does not mean it has to every year.\n\nWhat keeps plaguing me is the effect on the EUR/USD, with so many influencers affecting it: - the very recent JPY failure, the introduction of tapering, the effects of ECB Growth and Deflation and U.S. equity pullbacks. The EUR/USD could be trading below 1.3000 maybe even below 1.2500 in the coming months, maybe even lower.\n\nI have charts below with my targets on my three favourite currencies to trade EUR/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD. Later in the blog, I have my projected objectives on my radar trades (there are lots of them) later in the blog as usual the entry levels are critical. I have placed limit and stop orders with my broker on all of these trades already.\n\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/EURUSD-MONTHLY-09112013-1024x526.png\"><img src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/EURUSD-MONTHLY-09112013-1024x526.png\" alt=\"EURUSD-MONTHLY-09112013-1024x526\" width=\"1024\" height=\"526\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-3000\" /></a>\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/AUDUSD-MONTHLY-09112013-1024x526.png\"><img src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/AUDUSD-MONTHLY-09112013-1024x526.png\" alt=\"AUDUSD-MONTHLY-09112013-1024x526\" width=\"1024\" height=\"526\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-3001\" /></a>\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/NZDUSD-MONTHLY-09112013-1024x526.png\"><img src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/NZDUSD-MONTHLY-09112013-1024x526.png\" alt=\"NZDUSD-MONTHLY-09112013-1024x526\" width=\"1024\" height=\"526\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-3002\" /></a>\n\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/EURUSD-MONTHLY-09112013.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-2077\" alt=\"EURUSD MONTHLY 09112013\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/EURUSD-MONTHLY-09112013-1024x526.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"526\" /></a> \n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/AUDUSD-MONTHLY-09112013.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-2078\" alt=\"AUDUSD MONTHLY 09112013\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/AUDUSD-MONTHLY-09112013-1024x526.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"526\" /></a> \n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/NZDUSD-MONTHLY-09112013.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-2079\" alt=\"NZDUSD MONTHLY 09112013\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/NZDUSD-MONTHLY-09112013-1024x526.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"526\" /></a>\n\n&nbsp;\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong><em>Over the coming sessions I will be looking very closely at levels and correlations. I think that I have written the following several times over the years of writing my forex blog.</em></strong></p>\n<strong> </strong>\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>1. Commodities lead the way: - Look at Gold, Oil and Copper</i></strong></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>2. Commodity currencies react: - The AUD/USD (a key lead indicator) has already shown divergence away from the S&amp;P. Also look at USD/CAD, USD/NOK and the USD/SEK.</i></strong></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>\n3. The Bond Market reacts: - Watch U.S. 10 year treasuries. As yields go up the USD/JPY sells off.</i></strong></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>\n4. Equities are last to the party: - This is where I think that the smart money has already moved out of equities because of the first 3 items in my list. The S&amp;P falls and this adds to USD strength.</i></strong></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><em><strong>My trades (EUR/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD) at this stage should move from the volatile stage to the very directional stage.</strong></em></p>\n&nbsp;\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">3. MY CURRENT LIVE TRADES:</span></b>\n\nI have no live trades at the moment.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">4. TRADES THAT ARE ON MY RADAR:</span></b>\n\nI have a lot of trades that are on my radar. Many of these may not trigger as my entries are based on levels that I feel comfortable with. The profit potential with these trades is huge and I may have to adjust entries over time based upon revised pullbacks.\n\nMy point to get across here is that I am waiting for the trades to come to me.\n\n&nbsp;\n<p align=\"center\"><b>1. EUR/USD\n</b><b>Short\n</b><b>Entry: 1.3450\n</b><b>Stop: 1.3510\n</b><b>Limit: 1.3150 (initial objective)</b><b> </b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>2. AUD/USD\n</b><b>Short\n</b><b>Entry: 0.9425\n</b><b>Stop: 0.9550\n</b><b>Limit: 0.9000 (initial objective)</b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>3. NZD/USD\n</b><b>Short\n</b><b>Entry: 0.8270\n</b><b>Stop: 0.8350\n</b><b>Limit: 0.8000 (initial objective)</b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>4. USD/CAD\n</b><b>Long\n</b><b>Entry: 1.0445\n</b><b>Stop: 1.0380\n</b><b>Limit: 1.0580</b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>5. USD/CHF\n</b><b>Long\n</b><b>Entry: 0.9150\n</b><b>Stop: 0.9050\n</b><b>Limit: 0.9450</b><b> </b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>6. EUR/GBP\n</b><b>Short\n</b><b>Entry: 0.8370\n</b><b>Stop: 0.8420\n</b><b>Limit: 0.8000</b><b> </b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>7. GBP/AUD\n</b><b>Long\n</b><b>Entry: 1.6920\n</b><b>Stop: 1.6650\n</b><b>Limit: 1.9240</b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>8. EUR/AUD\n</b><b>Long\n</b><b>Entry: 1.4120\n</b><b>Stop: 1.3920\n</b><b>Limit: 1.4550</b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>9. GBP/NZD\n</b><b>Long\n</b><b>Entry: 1.9350\n</b><b>Stop: 1.9250\n</b><b>Limit: 1.9800 (initial objective)</b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b>10. EUR/NZD\n</b><b>Long\n</b><b>Entry: 1.6120\n</b><b>Stop: 1.5980\n</b><b>Limit: 1.6435 (initial objective)</b><b> </b></p>\n<p align=\"center\"><b> </b></p>\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">5. LOOKING FORWARD…THE KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS:</span></b>\n\n<b>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3364.</b>  From last Fridays’ close it’s about a 350 pip drop lower in the past 7 days. That is quite some move so I am expecting a little consolidation before resuming the move to the down side.<b> </b>Resistance should be really good at 1.3450 and it would be just brilliant to be able to establish an entry short around that level. Support is obviously at 1.3300 or 1.3295. Beyond those levels 1.3250 sits next. I do think that there is the potential for a real big move lower.\n\n<b>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.6012. </b>The support level of 1.6000 has been tested several times over the latter parts of last week but like a magnet the cable is pulled back to it. I think that whilst it is proving to be tough to crack it will break, in particular if the EUR/USD heads lower. Support is also good at 1.5900 should it break lower and resistance is stubborn at 1.6120.\n\n<b>AUD/USD: Closing Price 0.9384</b>.  Bias and sentiment has changed in the Aussie. We closed on Friday, over 200 pips lower in the week. The RBA has indicated once again that they feel the value of this pair to be too high. It should also be noted that as the equities markets reach new highs the AUD/USD has fallen. This is divergence and the correlation is broken. This pair is a lead indicator and this fact should not go unnoticed. Support is really good at 0.9250. Only minor support at 0.9300 stands in the way. Resistance will be good at 0.9400 and 0.9460. The bias is now bearish with this pair.\n\n<b>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8239</b>. I find this pair more stubborn than the Aussie to move lower. Wheeler at the RBNZ is still talking about rate increases early 2014 and this is hanging over this pair. We have edged lower in the past 7 days but only by about 40 pips. The AUD/USD has moved 5 times this movement lower by comparison. The range is 0.8200 support, to 0.8350 resistance.\n\n<b>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.0477.  </b>We are stuck in a range that is getting me bored. We need a break out 1.0400 to 1.0500. Trade the range if you feel you have to trade this pair.\n\n<b>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.9211.  </b>I missed the move higher with this pair and I am really annoyed with myself for doing so. The fresh range is 0.9150 support, to 0.9250 resistance.\n\n<b>USD/JPY: Closing Price 99.04. </b> I have made several predictions about the JPY recently and it still trades inside the Daily Chart Triangle pattern. I think it will break lower before heading higher and the recent false breakout backs up my point but we need to see some action. 96.80 and 97.40 are support levels and 99.20 resistance.<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b>\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">6. MAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:</span></b>\n\nSUNDAY: N/A\n\nMONDAY: N/A\n\nTUESDAY: GBP - CPi\nTUESDAY: NZD – RBNZ Wheeler talks.\n\nWEDNESDAY: GBP – Unemployment Data.\nWEDNESDAY: GBP – BOE Carney speaks and BOE Inflation Report\n\nTHURSDAY: GBP – Retail Sales.\n\nFRIDAY: USD – FED Yellen testifies\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">7. FINAL THOUGHTS:</span></b>\n\nNot much by way of news that interests me this week.\n\nI will be spending most of my time trying to gain the best entry levels for my radar trades, at the same time checking the markets for a start of what I think will be pull backs / sell offs in equities.\n\nI will update in the middle of the week with the “Midweek Fx Fix”.\n\nGood luck and take care.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<strong>Scott Pickering</strong>\n<strong>The Pip Accumulator</strong>\n<strong>Saturday November 9th 2013 </strong>\n\n<strong>FOLLOW ME AT:</strong>\n<strong>Twitter: @pipaccumulator</strong>\n<strong>Google+/scottpickering</strong>\n\n<strong> </strong>','I BELIEVE THAT THE SMART MONEY IS LEAVING EQUITIES AND MOVING INTO CASH','','inherit','open','closed','','2073-autosave-v1','','','2014-01-17 14:30:57','2014-01-17 19:30:57','',2073,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/2073-autosave-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(2997,16,'2014-01-17 14:20:39','2014-01-17 19:20:39','14.12.2013\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">1. INTRODUCTION:</span></b>\r\n\r\nMany of you may have read the undertones from last week’s blog, referring to my trading activity. I think that as soon as I see December on a calendar, like may people regardless of profession a certain mind set comes into play. As a trader I think “lower liquidity” “volatile moves for no reason”. Well, I have been there and done that, so they say, I’ve got the DVD and I am wearing the T-shirt as I write!\r\n\r\nLook my trading style is simple: -\r\n<p align=\"center\">FUNDAMENTALS MATTER TO ME</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">I TRADE TO MAKE MONEY…NOT TO PICK TOPS OR BOTTOMS</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">I TRADE LOW RISK</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">I DO NOT CHASE MARKETS</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">I LIKE THE TRADES TO COME TO ME</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">I LIKE TO MOMENTUM TRADE</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">I LIKE TO TRADE WITH DAILY, WEEKLY AND MONTHLY CHARTS SUPPORTING THE DIRECTION OF MY TRADE</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">I USE FIBONACCI LEVELS TO ENTER &amp; EXIT ON MANY TRADES</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">PLUS</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">MY TRADING STYLE IS MIXED EVEN WITH THE ABOVE CRITERIA</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">I USE THE PULLBACK STRATEGY TO ENTER TRADES AND I LIKE SWING AND LONGER-TERM TRADES (WHEN POSSIBLE)</p>\r\nDuring the past 7 days as I wind down for the end of the year, I have only traded 3 new RADAR TRADES. I had two existing trades that were held over from last weekend which were closed early last week. In total  I added over 250 pips to the RADAR TRADES for December 2013 in the past 7 days. This totals over 600 pips so far for December, and the month has not ended yet. All this and I am winding down. It’s not easy, but it’s all done with low risk, in my view.\r\n\r\nThe chart below details the RADAR TRADES that were posted in this blog and tweeted live via twitter.com/@pipaccumulator this month.\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/DEC-2013-RADAR-TRADES14122013-BLOG.jpg\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-2237\" alt=\"DEC 2013 RADAR TRADES14122013 BLOG\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/DEC-2013-RADAR-TRADES14122013-BLOG.jpg\" width=\"391\" height=\"388\" /></a></span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">POTENTIAL PROFITS FROM SINGLE LOT COMPLETED TRADES:</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x MICRO-LOT:\r\n13 trades at $0.10 cents each = $1.30 cents risk for a $60.80 reward.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x MINI-LOT:\r\n13 trades at $1.00 each = $13.00 risk for a $608.00 reward.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x STANDARD LOT:\r\n13 trades at $10.00 each = $130.00 risk for a $6,080.00 reward.</p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nI am launching very, very soon the PREMIUM SERVICE. This will bring a host of new tools to enable better trading…more consistently.\r\n\r\nDetails of my new PREMIUM SERVICE that gives you the option to follow the RADAR TRADES, amongst other things, follows later in this blog.<b></b><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">\r\n</span></b>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">2.    RBA BANK GOVERNOR STEVENS LAYS IT OUT PURE AND SIMPLE FOR THE MARKETS…AND I HAVE MY PLAN</span></b>\r\n\r\nHere is a direct quote from last week’s blog. It was from Section 2, when I was writing about adapting to longer-term trading as the market\'s reaction to news has changed.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><b><i>“Let me use RBA Stevens as my example. He has stated personally, and the RBA statements have read for the past three / four months maybe even longer, that the AUD is over-priced. They targeted in a published report months and months ago that 0.8500- 0.8800 was the goal for the AUD/USD exchange rate. To say this 5/6 years ago was enough to strike fear in the markets and the AUD/USD would be at its guide price by now. In 2013, you need QE (Quantitative Easing policies), direct intervention in the money markets and talk of negative rates to be believed these days”.</i></b><b><i> </i></b></p>\r\nWhat did Stevens do last Thursday?\r\n\r\nHe re-iterated it all again and this time actually said 0.9500 as the AUD/USD is too high...I think 0.8500 is more where it should be. There was great sell-off and now we are trying to consolidate positions\r\n\r\nFrom my perspective as a fundamental trader here is what goes through my mind: -\r\n<p align=\"center\"><i>The AUD/USD come hell or high water is moving lower.</i></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><i>Do not trade against a Central Bank.</i></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><i>Wait for the FOMC first to announce \'tapering or not\' this week to look for entries.</i></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><i>Look for a good pullback in the AUD/USD to get short.</i></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><i>Check charts of the EUR/AUD, GBP/AUD and AUD/NZD to get familiar with pricing.</i><i> </i></p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAt any other time of the year, I would have established positions already based on the RBA statement from governor Stevens. Right now, Ben and the FED announcement via the FOMC this Wednesday trumps all news for me and I will wait.\r\n\r\nMy reason, the 200 pips or so in the AUD/USD are not the big factor here. The unwinding of the cross-rates EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD is much, much bigger. There are thousands of potential pips available with these pairs alone. Plus how will the NZD react in a week or two, better still early 2014?\r\n\r\nI may set up limit orders with my broker after the FOMC announcement. That depends on the news itself and the market reaction. I will tweet my intentions and reactions Wednesday afternoon.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">3. THE VIEW FROM MY TRADING DESK:</span></b><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">THE FINAL SCHEDULED BIG NEWS EVENT OF 2013 IS THE FOMC…WHAT AM I DOING, WHAT ARE THE OPTIONS?</span></b></p>\r\nIt is quite appropriate that given all the “Taper” - is it on?, or, is it off ? talk for most of the past three/four months, that this subject should be the focus for the last major news event of 2013.\r\n\r\nThe big question that I have is - “Is tapering as big news for the FED as it is for the TV news channels?”\r\n\r\nCNBC are once again at fever pitch, bringing in all and sundry to debate the point. It was odds on given that the “Santa Claus” rally has not materialized this year…yet. We  have to keep in mind that this process that we are entering has never been executed before. All the conjecture is just that, pure speculation. No one knows what will really happen.\r\n\r\nThe USD is strengthening a little ahead of Wednesday’s Press Conference, probably a result of all the taper talk people preparing. Could you imagine, if the FED did start tapering what would happen.\r\n\r\nMy initial thoughts are, firstly, should Ben taper, this represents the beginning of a change in U.S. monetary policy. Do not underestimate that fact. The USD index will rally hard, and, coupled with the fact we will be in thin trading times the move would be fast, long and hard for USD bears to cope with, they will be running for the hills. Just imagine, the volatility with little liquidity.\r\n\r\nMy gut tells me however, that there is little chance of any taper this week. I just cannot see it being implemented at the end of the year, even with an agreement in Washington over the U.S. Federal Budget in the wings.\r\n\r\nI think with this FOMC press conference it really is all up for grabs. From a trading perspective, the conservative approach would be to wait until the press release before deciding what if any trades to place. Trying to second-guess the news and the market reaction is dangerous. You certainly do not want to be the wrong side of a trade at the end of the year when there is little liquidity.\r\n\r\nThe simple response to the FED \'taper or no taper\', one would imagine would be;\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">“TAPER” – get long the USD and short the EUR/USD, GBP/USD etc.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">“NO-TAPER” – get short the USD and long the EUR/USD, GBP/USD etc.</p>\r\nWait for about 10 to 15 minutes after the news has broken before entering a trade. Make certain that the direction is sorted.\r\n\r\nRemember, there is a press conference to follow the prepared statement, and, whilst Ben should not say anything that was not in the released press statement he does have to answer questions from the journalists and TV stations that are invited to the press conference. There could be a stinger of a question, so beware and be on guard.\r\n\r\nIt all really depends on your trade style and your risk tolerance. I may not even trade the FOMC at all. I want to end 2013 on a big positive and enjoy the Christmas holidays. I hate these thin trading conditions and try my best to avoid them like the plague.\r\n\r\nI will tweet around the news and should I take on a flash trade I will tweet the information.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">4. MY CURRENT LIVE TRADES:</span></b>\r\n\r\nI have no live trades at the moment.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">5. TRADES THAT ARE ON MY RADAR:</span></b>\r\n\r\nAs I have stated several times, I am winding down for 2013 and as such given the fact that we have a major news release like the Fed FOMC statement and press conference on the horizon, I am not looking at anything right now.\r\n\r\nI may look at potential trades after the FOMC, should I do this I will tweet my thoughts.\r\n\r\nThe trading pairs that are at the back of mind are: -\r\n<p align=\"center\">EUR/CAD\r\nGBP/CAD\r\nEUR/AUD\r\nGBP/AUD\r\nAUD/USD\r\nAUD/NZD\r\nUSD/CHF</p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">6. LOOKING FORWARD…THE KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS:</span></b>\r\n\r\n<b>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3738.</b>  We finished the week higher than last week. At one stage in the past seven days I thought that this pair was about to run and test 1.4000. In fact we stalled just ahead of 1.3830 and this remains the upside resistance that needs to be taken for the bulls to have control. Obviously, the big FED FOMC news on the horizon will calm things down for a day or two. The range that interests me with this pair is 1.3630 to 1.3830. Trade within this range, buy dips if you must trade. Personally, I will be watching until after the FOMC.\r\n\r\n<b>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.6290.  </b>A little lower on the week. Many traders must be totally confused with the cable\'s actions. On the daily charts there is a double bottom in play with a measured move to 1.6600, we headed in that direction and then the wheels came off the bus, and we moved lower towards key support at 1.6250. This support level of 1.6250, if breached, places the USD bulls back in command. I would play 1.6250 to 1.6450 until either end is broken.\r\n\r\n<b>AUD/USD: Closing Price 0.8963</b>. Well RBA Governor Stevens told it as it is on Thursday morning EDT. The Aussie nose-dived and once again the market now knows where the RBA wants to see this pair trading in the future. That is around 0.8500. We closed yesterday at 0.8963, which is well over 100 pips lower in the last seven days. There are important levels ahead for this pair. Support at 0.8875 and resistance around 0.9150. These two levels should contain this pair ahead of the FOMC. There is not much to say about this pair except DO NOT TRADE AGAINST THE RBA. If the AUD/USD rises use it as an opportunity to enter short.\r\n\r\n<b>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.849</b>.  During the past seven days there has not been much movement with this pair. It is still very resilient and affected by the effects of the AUD/NZD cross-rate. I know that RBNZ Governor Wheeler, has stated many confusing facts of late and one of them is his desire to raise rates in New Zealand probably in the Spring of 2014...but he has also sent conflicting  messages to the markets. I just do not know what to think at times with this pair. We seem to be in the range of 0.8200 to 0.8340. It is difficult to call, so it may be best to leave this pair alone.\r\n\r\n<b>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.0582.  </b>Just not certain where this pair is going. Yesterday (Friday) I thought it was so bullish. Then it falls 75 pips to end the week below 1.0600. The range as I see it is 1.0540 to 1.0700.\r\n\r\n<b>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.8882</b>.  We ended the week pretty much sitting on a major support level of 0.8880. This has to be a good trade to pick up long if we see a stop run through this level. The only thing that is stopping me is the boring market and the FOMC. 0.8850 offers a great area to go long just below support, and resistance should be good now at the round number of 0.9000.\r\n\r\n<b>USD/JPY: Closing Price 103.16. </b> I am not touching this pair at the moment. Soooooooo many  institutions and traders are long the JPY looking for 105.00 - it\'s a bit scary. I am not certain what to do or what to suggest other than write down the support of 1.0260 and resistance of 103.40.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">7. MAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:</span></b>\r\n\r\nSUNDAY: CNY – HSBC Flash PMi\r\n\r\nMONDAY: EUR – French &amp; German Manufacturing PMi\r\nMONDAY: EUR – Draghi Speaks.\r\nMONDAY: AUD – RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: N/A\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: GBP – Unemployment rates.\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – FOMC Statement and Press Conference.\r\nWEDNESDAY: NZD – RBNZ GDP.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: JPY – BOJ Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: CAD – Core Retails Sales.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">8. THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</span></b>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU</span></b><b>\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">PREMIUM SERVICE  2014 </span></b>\r\n\r\nNext year I am looking to introduce a “Premium Service” for those who want it.\r\n\r\nThe “Drive-Thru” in its current format will remain a weekly blog post although it will be a lot shorter. There will be one major exception in its current format  “RADAR TRADES” will now only be available via the Premium Service. In addition, “Trade Ideas and Set-ups” that are tweeted will also only be available to Premium Service subscribers inside the secure section of the Weekly Fx Drive-Thru. There will be lots of posts to the PREMIUM SERVICE section of the Weekly Fx Drive-Thru and in addition, I will also be introducing “Flash Trades” - these will be up to the minute as they happen trades.\r\n\r\nOver the past several months, feedback from subscribers to the “Drive-Thru”, or from readers of the blog via Google+, LinkedIn or Twitter have been raising many questions about Forex Trading in general, such as: -<b> </b>\r\n\r\n</p><p align=\"center\"><b>Placing Stops</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Strategies on entry and exit</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Working with a Trade Plan</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>What is a Trade Plan?</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Risk Assessment</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>When to fade trades</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>How to cost average effectively</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>How to use Trade Zones effectively - Buy Zones and Sell zones</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Working with Fibonacci levels</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>How to find a good broker to partner with</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Chart analysis</b></p>\r\nThe list is quite extensive, however, it refers only to all the recent questions that I have answered.\r\n\r\nTo have a learning centre available and to look at the trades that are on my radar at the same time seemed to be a very good fit as a trading philosophy…hence the Premium Service.\r\n\r\nI am also looking to offer training and information based “Webinars” to Premium Service subscription members, if I have sufficient participants. These will be fee based to cover costs.\r\n\r\nWhilst upon first look, it may appear that the Premium Service is directed solely at new traders, or those with intermediate skill levels, please note this is not my intention. Trading can be lonely, and sometimes it is good to feel that you are part of a team. With this in mind, I am thinking that a “Chat Room” style area would be of benefit to all traders to share ideas and trade set-ups. Plus, whether a new trader or experienced trader, it is always good to have a library of information available close at hand.\r\n\r\nThe Weekly Fx-Drive-Thru will remain, and will continue to be posted weekly on Saturday’s although it will be a shorter version.\r\n\r\nThe Midweek Fx Fix will cease immediately and in 2014 the Premium Service will be available to those who want to take advantage. The training and background support material will be added on a regular basis to grow into a library of effective Fx trading tools.\r\n\r\nWhat are the costs?\r\n\r\nMy initial thoughts are as follows: -\r\n\r\nThere will be 40 weekly blogs / issues per year (I will not write in the Summer and over Christmas periods), with an unlimited amount of follow ups during the week to review and act upon “Radar Trades” and issues emanating from previous blogs. In addition trade ideas for trades already in play would also be part of the service, as I will be trading my own trade recommendations.\r\n\r\nI do not want to become a finance administrator on a daily basis so I want to keep the subscription options as few as possible.\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>ANNUAL (40 WEEK) SUBSCRIPTION: $750.00 (this equates to $18.75 per week) </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>20 WEEKS SUBSCRIPTION: $450.00 (this equates to $22.50 per week) </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>10 WEEKS SUBSCRIPTION: $250.00 (this equates to $25.00 per week) </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>(ALL FEES ARE IN USD)</b></p>\r\nI would like to get your feedback to this proposal.\r\n\r\nIf you have the time please respond to me at <a href=\"mailto:scott@pickering.bz\">premiumservice@thepipaccumulator.com</a> with your thoughts on the “Premium Service” and whether you think that this is something you would sign up for and take advantage of. I would like to Thank all of you who have already done so.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">9. FINAL THOUGHTS:</span></b>\r\n\r\nThere are several interesting bigger ticket news items this week; obviously the FOMC is the pick of the bunch. Personally, I think that this will be my final week of trading for 2013, so my positions, if any, will be small.\r\n\r\nWe are heading into ‘silly season” on thin trading volumes. Smaller and thinner trading volumes create wilder moves sometimes based on nothing. This can cost you money so be careful.\r\n\r\nAs always, trade smaller with wider stops to establish your position, only then do you add in, but it should be in line with your trading plan. Do not over-stretch yourself and let the trades come to you. Price your entries and establish your risk prior to taking a trade. This is a sound practice and it works.\r\n\r\nGood luck and take care.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nSaturday December 14th 2013\r\n\r\nEMAIL / FOLLOW ME AT:\r\n<a href=\"mailto:drivethru@thepipaccumulator.com\">drivethru@thepipaccumulator.com\r\n</a><a href=\"mailto:premiumservice@thepipaccumulator.com\">premiumservice@thepipaccumulator.com\r\n</a>Twitter: @pipaccumulator\r\nGoogle+/scottpickering\r\nStockTwits; thepipaccumulator\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','RBA STEVENS TELLS IT STRAIGHT BUT THE UPCOMING FOMC IS THE BIGGER NEWS ','','inherit','open','closed','','2234-revision-v1','','','2014-01-17 14:20:39','2014-01-17 19:20:39','',2234,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/2234-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(2914,1,'2014-01-15 10:01:12','2014-01-15 15:01:12','15.01.2014.\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">1. INTRODUCTION:</span></b>\n\nAs promised yesterday on Twitter, I am reviewing all my RADAR TRADE set-ups. All those previously listed in blogs and twitter that have not yet activated / triggered have been cancelled.\n\nAfter Non-Farm payrolls last Friday, it became a bit hectic, in particular on Monday with the NFP fallout. There were some moves that took me totally by surprise and in an effort to react to one or two moves, “sleepy eyed” instead of taking 50% profits off the table in the GBP/CAD long I closed the trade in error. Not a problem to bank profits but my core position was lost at a great entry price. A few hours later I closed all my positions in error when I thought I was just exiting the AUD/NZD long after it was annihilated on stop loss run. Talk about a bad three/four hours…and there was no Jack Daniels in the system at all!\n\nLooking at all the RADAR TRADES that were placed with my brokers, some moves had been quite exaggerated and my entry levels were very distant from the market. I therefore thought it best to cancel everything and send out a MIDWEEK FX FIX to update both the FLASH and RADAR trades status.\n\nBelow are current positions and ideas moving forward.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">2. EXISTING LIVE FLASH TRADES:</span></b>\n<p align=\"center\">FT07:\nCurrency Pair: USD/CHF\nLong/Short: Long\nLimit Order Entry Price: 0.9072\nMy Position Size: 100% (this was reduced to 25% on USD spike profits taken)\nStop Loss: 0.8990\nTarget / Limit: 0.9400</p>\n<p align=\"center\"> FT08:\nCurrency Pair: USD/CAD\nLong/Short: Long\nLimit Order Entry Price: 1.0966\nMy Position Size: 40%\nStop Loss: 1.0840\nTarget / Limit: 1.1200</p>\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">3. POTENTIAL RADAR TRADES:</span></b>\n\nAs always with these trades, I am waiting on pullbacks to enter. I may not get the entry prices that I want.\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"> RT21:\nCurrency Pair: EUR/USD\nLong/Short: Short\nLimit Order Entry Price: 1.3650\nMy Proposed Position Size: 40%\nStop Loss: 1.3720\nTarget / Limit: 1.3200</p>\n<p align=\"center\">RT22:\nCurrency Pair: AUD/USD\nLong/Short: Short\nLimit Order Entry Price: 0.8950\nMy Proposed Position Size: 40%\nStop Loss: 0.9020\nTarget / Limit: 0.8500</p>\n<p align=\"center\">RT23:\nCurrency Pair: NZD/USD\nLong/Short: Short\nLimit Order Entry Price: 0.8390\nMy Proposed Position Size: 20%\nStop Loss: 0.8450\nTarget / Limit: 0.8000</p>\n&nbsp;\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">3. FINAL THOUGHTS:</span></b>\n\nRemember, the above trade set-ups meet with my personal TRADING PLAN and my account parameters. Only trade within your TRADING PLAN and your account limits.\n\nDo not over-stretch your account…. or, yourself!!\n\nThe next blog will be THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU this Saturday 18<sup>th</sup> January 2014.\n\nGood luck and take care.\n\nScott Pickering\nThe Pip Accumulator\nWednesday 15th January 2014.\n\nEMAIL / FOLLOW ME AT:\n\nEMAIL: <a href=\"mailto:scott@thepipaccumulator.com\">scott@thepipaccumulator.com</a>\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\nGoogle+/scottpickering\nStockTwits: thepipaccumulator\n\n&nbsp;','THE MIDWEEK FX FIX #11  - RADAR & FLASH TRADES UPDATE (15.01.2014)','','publish','open','closed','','midweek-fx-fix-10-radar-flash-trades-update-15-01-2014','','','2014-01-15 10:01:12','2014-01-15 15:01:12','',0,'http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/?p=2478',0,'post','',0),(2913,1,'2014-01-11 12:45:05','2014-01-11 17:45:05','11.01.2014\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">1. INTRODUCTION:</span></b>\r\n\r\nIt was a very quiet first week back for the Fx markets. I thought as the market liquidity levels rose that we would have seen a very volatile opening week of trading. In addition, when you look at the major news events last week, it seemed an “odds on” bet for me. In the end I thought it to be a very tame week.\r\n\r\nFOMC minutes, ADP Non Farm, Interest rate decisions passed off quietly, Draghi said nothing new, the ECB press conference pretty lame, big misses on the U.S. and Canadian Jobs but not really a full follow through…a little boring for me.\r\n\r\nI have been working on the new PREMIUM SERVICE, which I am looking to launch very soon. As soon as I am able to give a launch date I will post a blog, which will deliver direct to WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU subscribers an introduction email with details of how to subscribe etc.\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">2. RADAR AND FLASH TRADES TRADING SUMMARY:</span></b>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">JANUARY 2014 and YEAR to date:</span></b></p>\r\nThis will be a section in the new PREMIUM SERVICE when launched where I will review good and bad trades. At that time it will no longer be a part of the WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU. To take advantage of the trade set-ups you will need to be a PREMIUM SERVICE subscriber.\r\n\r\nI have included below, two excel spreadsheets for both types of trading styles that I refer to when I am “tweeting”, using Google+ or any other social network.\r\n\r\nRADAR TRADES: These are pre-meditated limit order trades. I hope that these will be longer-term trades.\r\n\r\nFLASH TRADES: These are more of an intra-day trade. They may develop into “Swing style” trades but will probably be more short term.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/RADARTRADES14012014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-2475\" alt=\"RADAR TRADES 14.01.2014\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/RADARTRADES14012014.png\" width=\"536\" height=\"478\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">PROFITS FROM SINGLE LOT COMPLETED RADAR TRADES:</span></b></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"> 1 x MICRO-LOT\r\n3 trades at $0.10 cents each = $0.30 cents risk for a $13.90 reward.\r\n<span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">1 x MINI-LOT:\r\n</span><span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">3 trades at $1.00 each = $3.00 risk for a $139.00 reward.\r\n</span><span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">1 x STANDARD LOT:\r\n</span><span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">3 trades at $10.00 each = $30.00 risk for a $1,390.00 reward.</span></p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/FLASHTRADES14012014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-2474\" alt=\"FLASH TRADES 14.01.2014\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/FLASHTRADES14012014.png\" width=\"467\" height=\"479\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">PROFITS FROM SINGLE LOT COMPLETED FLASH TRADES:</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x MICRO-LOT:\r\n4 trades at $0.10 cents each = $0.40 cents risk for an $8.50 reward.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x MINI-LOT:\r\n4 trades at $1.00 each = $4.00 risk for $85.00 reward</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x STANDARD LOT:\r\n4 trades at $10.00 each = $40.00 risk for a $850.00 reward</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">COMBINED FLASH AND RADAR TRADES PROFIT PERFORMANCE</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">JANUARY 2014…SO FAR:</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">TRADING MICRO-LOTS:\r\n7 trades at $0.10 cents each = $0.70 risk for a $22.40 reward.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">TRADING MINI-LOTS:\r\n7 trades at $1.00 each = $7.00 risk for a $224.00 reward.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">TRADING STANDARD LOTS:\r\n7 trades at $10.00 each = $70.00 risk for a $2,240.00 reward.</p>\r\nIt is a great start to a new year of trading, albeit quite slow. As I have said many times before… It is no big secret…. It’s all about discipline. I am NOT chasing trades, far from it, it took three/four attempts at pullbacks for GBP/AUD, AUD/USD and GBP/USD to trigger (these trades are still active).\r\n\r\nMy approach is all about discipline. The market will always be there and as long as there is a market there will be opportunities.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Look my trading style - it’s simple: -</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong>FUNDAMENTALS MATTER TO ME</strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong>I TRADE TO MAKE MONEY…NOT TO PICK TOPS OR BOTTOMS</strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong>I TRADE LOW RISK</strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong>I DO NOT CHASE MARKETS</strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong>I LIKE THE TRADES TO COME TO ME</strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong>I AM NOT A GREEDY TRADER</strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong>I LIKE TO TRADE MOMENTUMS IN THE DIRECTION OF TRENDS</strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong>I USE FIBONACCI LEVELS TO ENTER &amp; EXIT ON MANY TRADES</strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong>PLUS</strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong>MY TRADING STYLE IS MIXED EVEN WITH THE ABOVE KEY BASICS</strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong>I USE THE PULLBACK STRATEGY TO ENTER AND I LIKE SWING AND LONGER-TERM TRADES (WHEN POSSIBLE)</strong></p>\r\nDetails of my new PREMIUM SERVICE that gives you the option to follow the FLASH and RADAR TRADES, amongst other things, follows later in this blog.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">3. THE VIEW FROM MY TRADING DESK:</span></b>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>CORRELATIONS ARE OFF…MIXED MESSAGES ON DATA…2014 WELCOMES ALL FX TRADERS!!!</b><b> </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>WE HAVE TO BE ADAPTIVE AND DISCIPLINED TRADERS AT ALL TIMES</b></p>\r\nLast week in my blog with my predictions for 2014, I mentioned the fact that I strongly suspected that correlations and inter-market relationships may not run as true as in previous years.\r\n\r\nI wrote the following in last week’s blog: -\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><b><i>“I see this disconnect continuing, hence my forward thinking into 2014 shows disconnects between the majors. My thoughts are that there will be more extended periods when currencies will act independently this year. Correlations will come and go.</i></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><i>Typical examples of “the disconnect” are the following correlations: -</i></b><b><i> </i></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><i>USD / Gold\r\n</i></b><b><i>AUD / NZD\r\n</i></b><b><i>Commodity currencies / equities\r\n</i></b><b><i>EUR / GBP\r\n</i></b><b><i>CAD / USD\r\n</i></b><b><i>JPY / S&amp;P\r\n</i></b><b><i>AUD &amp; NZD / Copper\r\n</i></b><b><i>EUR / CHF\r\n</i></b><b><i>EUR/GBP / GBP/CHF\r\n</i></b><b><i>JPY &amp; CHF / Gold”</i></b></p>\r\n It can be easy to be assumptive and influenced as a trader. I may influence by writing this blog. As a trader, one of the hardest aspects of trading to master and be consistent in doing so is being able to remove all the noise around you and trade your own plan.\r\n\r\nPrior to the Non Farm Payroll release if you were influenced (and it is not hard to be), by all the experts and pundits on TV and written articles you would have been totally 100% set up on the wrong side of the trade.\r\n\r\nIn my blog last week I missed two news events that have been very well linked of late; ADP Non-Farm figures and the U.S. Government Non-Farm Payroll statistics.\r\n\r\nThese have been very correlated of late, so much so, that analysis’s expectations were raised for “Non-Farm’ on Friday on the back of excellent “ADP Employment data” figures released last Wednesday. Expectations of 190,000 additional people working were whispered to be around 225,000 following good ADP numbers last Wednesday. The actual release was a mere 74,000 additional people working. That is what is referred to as a miss.\r\n\r\nMy main reason for revisiting a similar theme to last week’s blog is to re-emphasize the fact that I think that in this year to be a successful Fx trader you will need to adapt to perhaps some very new disciplines.\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li>Ignore the “noise” around you. By noise, I mean a lot of the pointless financial chatter on Bloomberg or CNBC. This can also include bloggers like myself. You have to be your own trader. Take council, and do your research, but the buck stops with you.</li>\r\n	<li>Note: The experts on TV are just selling their book and taking guesses at economic data. You and I can take just as good a guess as they can a lot of the time.</li>\r\n	<li>Fundamentals do matter. Fundamentals in my opinion should be directly linked to the type of trader you aspire to be. e.g. Scalpers need not worry too much about fundamentals. Longer-term traders definitely need to consider the fundamentals.</li>\r\n	<li>Be flexible as a trader. More than ever this is a critical success factor. Do not pigeon hole yourself as “ Swing”, “Scalper”, “Long-Term”, “Fundamental” or a “Technical” trader. I firmly believe that in 2014 you will require a little bit of everything in order to keep your head above water.</li>\r\n	<li>Finally, take nothing for granted. If in doubt exit trades and bank profits. Do not let losing trades run away from you.</li>\r\n	<li>I nearly always close my blogs with words like these…Trade smaller position sizes, with wider stops and work your Trading Plan using proper Money Management.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIt’s all boring but essential stuff that we have all heard before many times. If I am correct and this is the “dis-connect” year we will all need a 100% disciplined approach to trading.\r\n\r\nIt is far too easy to be suckered into trades in the forex market. It is a totally unforgiving trading environment. Be disciplined at all times.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">4. MY CURRENT LIVE TRADES:</span></b>\r\n\r\nFLASH TRADES: No live FLASH TRADES at this time.\r\n\r\nRADAR TRADES: The following trades are live. They all emanated from last weeks MIDWEEK FX FIX trade set-ups.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong> RT01\r\n</strong><strong style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">PAIR: USD/CHF\r\n</strong><strong style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">LONG /SHORT: LONG\r\n</strong><strong style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">ENTRY / COST AVERAGE: 0.9030\r\n</strong><strong style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">TRADE SIZE: 20%\r\n</strong><strong style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">STOP LOSS: 0.8940\r\n</strong><strong style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">TARGET / LIMIT: 0.9450\r\n</strong><strong style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">WEEKLY CLOSING PRICE: 0.9021\r\n</strong><strong style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">PRESENT POSITION: -9 pips</strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong>RT02</strong>\r\n<strong>PAIR: AUD/USD</strong>\r\n<strong>LONG/ SHORT: SHORT</strong>\r\n<strong>ENTRY / COST AVERAGE: 0.9000</strong>\r\n<strong>TRADE SIZE: 20%</strong>\r\n<strong>STOP LOSS: 0.9050</strong>\r\n<strong>TARGET / LIMIT: 0.8500</strong>\r\n<strong>WEEKLY CLOSING PRICE: 0.8994</strong>\r\n<strong>PRESENT POSITION: +6 pips</strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong> RT05</strong>\r\n<strong>PAIR: GBP/AUD</strong>\r\n<strong>LONG /SHORT: LONG</strong>\r\n<strong>ENTRY / COST AVERAGE: 1.8350</strong>\r\n<strong>TRADE SIZE: 10%</strong>\r\n<strong>STOP LOSS: 1.8250</strong>\r\n<strong>TARGET / LIMIT: 1.9670</strong>\r\n<strong>WEEKLY CLOSING PRICE: 1.8314</strong>\r\n<strong>PRESENT POSITION: -36 pips</strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong> RT11\r\nPAIR: GBP/USD\r\nLONG /SHORT: SHORT\r\nENTRY / COST AVERAGE: 1.6500\r\nTRADE SIZE: 20%\r\nSTOP LOSS: 1.6550\r\nTARGET / LIMIT: 1.6200\r\nWEEKLY CLOSING PRICE: 1.6478\r\nPRESENT POSITION: +22 pips</strong></p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">5. TRADES THAT ARE ON MY RADAR:</span></b>\r\n\r\nBelow is the current list of RADAR TRADES that have yet to trigger from the last blog. Plus there are some additional trade set-ups that interest me.\r\n\r\nYou will notice that on all the CAD pairs that entry levels have been amended.\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong>RT03:</strong>\r\n<strong>Currency Pair: NZD/USD</strong>\r\n<strong>Long/Short: Short</strong>\r\n<strong>Limit Order Entry Price: 0.8320</strong>\r\n<strong>My Proposed Position Size: 20%</strong>\r\n<strong>Stop Loss: 0.8370</strong>\r\n<strong>Target / Limit: 0.8240</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>RT04:</strong>\r\n<strong>Currency Pair: USD/CAD</strong>\r\n<strong>Long/Short: Long</strong>\r\n<strong>Limit Order Entry Price: 1.0800</strong>\r\n<strong>My Proposed Position Size: 20%</strong>\r\n<strong>Stop Loss: 1.0725</strong>\r\n<strong>Target / Limit: 1.1230</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>RT06:</strong>\r\n<strong>Currency Pair: EUR/CAD</strong>\r\n<strong>Long/Short: Long</strong>\r\n<strong>Limit Order Entry Price: 1.4800</strong>\r\n<strong>My Proposed Position Size: 20%</strong>\r\n<strong>Stop Loss: 1.4700</strong>\r\n<strong>Target / Limit: 1.6320</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>RT07:</strong>\r\n<strong>Currency Pair: GBP/CAD</strong>\r\n<strong>Long/Short: Long</strong>\r\n<strong>Limit Order Entry Price: 1.7840</strong>\r\n<strong>My Proposed Position Size: 20%</strong>\r\n<strong>Stop Loss: 1.7750</strong>\r\n<strong>Target / Limit: 1.9200</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>RT10:</strong>\r\n<strong>Currency Pair: EUR/GBP</strong>\r\n<strong>Long/Short: Short</strong>\r\n<strong>Limit Order Entry Price: 0.8320</strong>\r\n<strong>My Proposed Position Size: 20%</strong>\r\n<strong>Stop Loss: 0.8400</strong>\r\n<strong>Target / Limit: 0.8160</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>RT13:</strong>\r\n<strong>Currency Pair: EUR/NZD</strong>\r\n<strong>Long/Short: Long</strong>\r\n<strong>Limit Order Entry Price: 1.6420</strong>\r\n<strong>My Proposed Position Size: 10%</strong>\r\n<strong>Stop Loss: 1.6350</strong>\r\n<strong>Target / Limit: 1.7500</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>RT14:</strong>\r\n<strong>Currency Pair: GBP/NZD</strong>\r\n<strong>Long/Short: Long</strong>\r\n<strong>Limit Order Entry Price: 1.9780</strong>\r\n<strong>My Proposed Position Size: 10%</strong>\r\n<strong>Stop Loss: 1.9650</strong>\r\n<strong>Target / Limit: 2.0100</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>RT15:</strong>\r\n<strong>Currency Pair: EUR/AUD</strong>\r\n<strong>Long/Short: Long</strong>\r\n<strong>Limit Order Entry Price: 1.5100</strong>\r\n<strong>My Proposed Position Size: 10%</strong>\r\n<strong>Stop Loss: 1.4980</strong>\r\n<strong>Target / Limit: 1.5600</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>RT16:</strong>\r\n<strong>Currency Pair: AUD/NZD</strong>\r\n<strong>Long/Short: Long</strong>\r\n<strong>Limit Order Entry Price: 1.0790</strong>\r\n<strong>My Proposed Position Size: 20%</strong>\r\n<strong>Stop Loss: 1.0685</strong>\r\n<strong>Target / Limit: 1.1050</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>RT17:</strong>\r\n<strong>Currency Pair: AUD/CHF</strong>\r\n<strong>Long/Short: Long</strong>\r\n<strong>Limit Order Entry Price: 0.8050</strong>\r\n<strong>My Proposed Position Size: 10%</strong>\r\n<strong>Stop Loss: 0.7985</strong>\r\n<strong>Target / Limit: 0.8270</strong></p>\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">NOTE</span></b>: I will not be able to add limit orders and revise existing limit orders until the market opens tomorrow night (Sunday)\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">6. LOOKING FORWARD…THE KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS:</span></b>\r\n\r\n<b>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3667.</b>  This pair rejected 1.3700 resistance after Non Farm yesterday. I think that if we break higher through 1.3770 next week everything changes. Support is good at 1.3600 and 1.3550 below that I would personally trade the range 1.3550 to 1.3725.\r\n\r\n<b>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.6478. </b>The 1.6500 resistance held pretty well. A huge amount depends upon what happens with the EUR/USD and USD/JPY as to how this pair will play out next week. The UK has Retail Sales data late in the week but we have CPi numbers in Tuesday. Recent data from the UK has been very mixed to say the least. It is well known that BOE Governor Carney does not want the GBP to strengthen too far, but there is nothing planned for his intervention to send the currency towards 1.6000. 1.6400 is good support and I would consider a break above 1.6540 could set us up for a bigger move towards 1.7000\r\n\r\n<b>AUD/USD: Closing Price 0.8994</b>.  Although I am short, this pair looks like it could snap higher. A break above 0.9060 I think would be a sentiment change and support is good at 0.8900. The one thing to bear in mind with this pair is the desire by the RBA to have the AUD currency much lower towards 0.8500. Do not fight the RBA.\r\n\r\n<b>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8298</b>.  The resistance level of 0.8300 has held very well. If the AUD breaks higher it is just a question of how long would it take for the Kiwi to follow. I have a RADAR TRADE short limit entry at 0.8320. Personally, I believe the range to play for the time being is 0.8200 to 0.8300. I am looking for a stop run over 0.8300 to have my entry triggered. That did not happen after Non Farm, which would have been the ideal time given the AUD/USD move after Non Farm. We sit on 0.8300 resistance. If we break above 0.8350 I will start to get twitchy.\r\n\r\n<b>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.0885.  </b>I am so annoyed with myself for missing this break out trade. All my attempts to get an entry I am happy with have failed. I even scalped this pair after Non Farm and exited with small profits because I was not happy with the entry level for a longer-term trade. The trading range at the moment is 1.0800 to 1.0950. I have a buy order at 1.0800. I may still not get the pullback I want!\r\n\r\n<b>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.9021</b>.  This pair is in break out mode and I patiently waited for my entry after Non Farm. Support is good at 0.8950 and above 0.9125 we should be motoring much higher.\r\n\r\n<b>USD/JPY: Closing Price 104.15. </b> Every prediction on my chart analysis on this pair I screw up. Ultimately I do think that this pair is going much, much higher. I just think that there will be a pullback first, but I am not too sure how strong a pullback it’s going to be. In April this year the Abe led Government will implement tax changes to hopefully spur inflation towards the 2% target. I want to be long before then. I think we will possibly re-test 103.50 on the short side. Is this the level to get long and stick with it? I am not sure yet.\r\n\r\nMy range for this pair at the moment is 103.50 to 104.60.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">7. MAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:</span></b>\r\n\r\nSUNDAY: N/A\r\n\r\nMONDAY: GBP – CPi.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: USD – Retail and Core Retail Sales.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: AUD – Unemployment Numbers and % rates.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: N/A\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: GBP – Retail Sales.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">8. THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</span></b>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU</span></b><b>\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">PREMIUM SERVICE  2014 </span></b>\r\n\r\nI am still working with my software developer to have this addition to the WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU ready within the next two weeks. My intention is to launch the PREMIUM SERVICE subscription service as soon as the markets revert back to normal liquidity.\r\n\r\nWe have noticed however that a number of people have tried to register already. For anyone who has tried to register their details were deleted by the system under beta testing and even if you believe that you have an existing login or username that is not the case. As soon as I write announcing that the PREMIUM SERVICE is ready, sorry, but you will have to register again.\r\n\r\nFor those new readers below I detail the salient points regarding the premium service: -\r\n\r\nAs soon as the PREMIUM SERVICE is launched THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU in its current format will change. It will remain a weekly blog post although it will be more concise in length.\r\n\r\nMy “RADAR and FLASH TRADES” will now only be available via the Premium Service. In addition, “TRADE IDEAS &amp; SET UPS” that are tweeted will now only be available to Premium Service subscribers by email and in addition they can be viewed inside the secure section of my website.\r\n\r\nExamples of the RADAR and FLASH TRADES excel spreadsheets are in this blog at Section 2.\r\n\r\nIn 2013, feedback from subscribers to the “Drive-Thru”, or from readers of the blog via Google+, LinkedIn or Twitter have been raising many questions about Forex Trading in general, such as: -\r\n\r\n</p><p align=\"center\"><b>Placing Stops</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Strategies on entry and exit</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Working with a Trade Plan</b> / <b>What is a Trade Plan?</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Risk Assessment</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>When to fade trades</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>How to cost average effectively</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>How to use Trade Zones effectively - Buy Zones and Sell zones</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Working with Fibonacci levels</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>How to find a good broker to partner with</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Chart analysis</b></p>\r\nInside the secure area of my website, you will be able to reference information on all of the above topics plus much more. The library of information will grow during 2014 and my goal is to provide a comprehensive support area to traders of all experience levels. The PREMIUM SERVICE in its secure area will be a learning and reference area to subscribers.\r\n\r\nI am also looking to offer training and information based “Webinars” to Premium Service subscription members, if I have sufficient participants. These will be fee based to cover costs.\r\n\r\nWhilst upon first look, it may appear that the Premium Service is directed solely at new traders, or those with intermediate skill levels, please note this is not my intention. Trading can be lonely, and sometimes it is good to feel that you are part of a team. With this in mind, I am thinking that a “Chat Room” style area would be of benefit to all traders to share ideas and trade set-ups. Plus, whether a new trader or experienced trader it is always good to have a library of information available close at hand.\r\n\r\nWhat are the costs of membership?\r\n\r\nThere will be 40 weekly blogs / issues per year (I will not write in the Summer and over Christmas periods), with an unlimited amount of follow ups during the week to review and act upon “RADAR and FLASH trades” and issues emanating from previous blogs. In addition trade ideas for trades already in play would also be part of the service, as I will be trading the posted set-ups.\r\n\r\nI do not want to become a finance administrator on a daily basis so I want to keep the subscription options as few as possible.\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>ANNUAL (40 WEEK) SUBSCRIPTION: $750.00 (this equates to $18.75 per week) </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>20 WEEKS SUBSCRIPTION: $450.00 (this equates to $22.50 per week) </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>10 WEEKS SUBSCRIPTION: $250.00 (this equates to $25.00 per week) </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>(ALL FEES ARE IN USD)</b></p>\r\nShould you have any questions regarding the PREMIUM SERVICE please email me at premiumservice@thepipaccumulator.com<b></b>\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b>\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">9. FINAL THOUGHTS:</span></b>\r\n\r\nA little quieter this week on the news front in particular. However, following Non Farm Payrolls there is usually a bit of follow through to work with and react to.\r\n\r\nWe should see liquidity come back to the market even more this week and currency moves should be more sustainable and pretty much back to normal…whatever that means!!\r\n\r\nI will be posting RADAR and FLASH trade set ups via twitter as the week progresses and they will be performance measured via spreadsheets in next week blog.\r\n\r\nGood luck and trade within your TRADE PLAN guidelines and most importantly use MONEY MANAGEMENT SKILLS to control your risks.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nSaturday January 11<sup>th</sup> 2014\r\n\r\nEMAIL / FOLLOW ME AT:\r\n<a href=\"mailto:drivethru@thepipaccumulator.com\">drivethru@thepipaccumulator.com\r\n</a>Twitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n<span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">Google+/scottpickering\r\n</span><span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">StockTwits; thepipaccumulator</span>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','CORRELATIONS ARE OFF…MIXED MESSAGES ON DATA…2014 WELCOMES ALL FX TRADERS!!!','','publish','open','closed','','correlations-offmixed-messages-data2014-welcomes-fx-traders','','','2014-01-20 15:17:43','2014-01-20 20:17:43','',0,'http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/?p=2473',0,'post','',0),(2912,1,'2014-01-07 10:00:34','2014-01-07 15:00:34','07.01.2014\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">1. INTRODUCTION:</span></b>\n\nI have looked at lots of trading charts and reading as much as I can to bring myself up to date with the markets in readiness for the big news events on the horizon later this week.\n\nThere are so many trade-set ups that interest me, I wanted to get these down on paper and the respective limit orders placed with my brokers. Therefore, I decided to post a very brief MIDWEEK FX FIX based around the RADAR TRADES on my mind and in my thought processes at this time.\n\nI tweeted an initial four trades yesterday; Below I add to these eight further RADAR TRADES that interest me and all of these have limit orders in position with my appropriate brokers.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">2. POTENTIAL TRADES ON MY RADAR (RADAR TRADES):</span></b>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>RT01:</strong>\n<strong>Currency Pair: USD/CHF</strong>\n<strong>Long/Short: Long</strong>\n<strong>Limit Order Entry Price: 0.9000</strong>\n<strong>My Proposed Position Size: 20%</strong>\n<strong>Stop Loss: 0.9950</strong>\n<strong>Target / Limit: 0.9300 </strong></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>RT02:</strong>\n<strong>Currency Pair: AUD/USD</strong>\n<strong>Long/Short: Short</strong>\n<strong>Limit Order Entry Price: 0.9000</strong>\n<strong>My Proposed Position Size: 20%</strong>\n<strong>Stop Loss: 0.9050</strong>\n<strong>Target / Limit: 0.8500</strong></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>RT03:</strong>\n<strong>Currency Pair: NZD/USD</strong>\n<strong>Long/Short: Short</strong>\n<strong>Limit Order Entry Price: 0.8320</strong>\n<strong>My Proposed Position Size: 20%</strong>\n<strong>Stop Loss: 0.8370</strong>\n<strong>Target / Limit: 0.8240 </strong></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>RT04:</strong>\n<strong>Currency Pair: USD/CAD</strong>\n<strong>Long/Short: Long</strong>\n<strong>Limit Order Entry Price: 1.0600</strong>\n<strong>My Proposed Position Size: 20%</strong>\n<strong>Stop Loss: 1.0540</strong>\n<strong>Target / Limit: 1.0850</strong></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>RT05:</strong>\n<strong>Currency Pair: GBP/AUD</strong>\n<strong>Long/Short: Long</strong>\n<strong>Limit Order Entry Price: 1.8350</strong>\n<strong>My Proposed Position Size: 20%</strong>\n<strong>Stop Loss: 1.8250</strong>\n<strong>Target / Limit: 1.9670</strong></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>RT06:</strong>\n<strong>Currency Pair: EUR/CAD</strong>\n<strong>Long/Short: Long</strong>\n<strong>Limit Order Entry Price: 1.4550</strong>\n<strong>My Proposed Position Size: 20%</strong>\n<strong>Stop Loss: 1.4400</strong>\n<strong>Target / Limit: 1.6320</strong></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>RT07:</strong>\n<strong>Currency Pair: GBP/CAD</strong>\n<strong>Long/Short: Long</strong>\n<strong>Limit Order Entry Price: 1.7500</strong>\n<strong>My Proposed Position Size: 20%</strong>\n<strong>Stop Loss: 1.7300</strong>\n<strong>Target / Limit: 1.9200</strong></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>RT08:</strong>\n<strong>Currency Pair: EUR/NZD</strong>\n<strong>Long/Short: Long</strong>\n<strong>Limit Order Entry Price: 1.6430</strong>\n<strong>My Proposed Position Size: 20%</strong>\n<strong>Stop Loss: 1.6350</strong>\n<strong>Target / Limit: 1.7500</strong></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>RT09:</strong>\n<strong>Currency Pair: GBP/NZD</strong>\n<strong>Long/Short: Long</strong>\n<strong>Limit Order Entry Price: 1.9780</strong>\n<strong>My Proposed Position Size: 20%</strong>\n<strong>Stop Loss: 1.9600</strong>\n<strong>Target / Limit: 2.0100</strong></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>RT10:</strong>\n<strong>Currency Pair: EUR/GBP</strong>\n<strong>Long/Short: Short</strong>\n<strong>Limit Order Entry Price: 0.8320</strong>\n<strong>My Proposed Position Size: 20%</strong>\n<strong>Stop Loss: 0.8400</strong>\n<strong>Target / Limit: 0.8160</strong></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>RT11:</strong>\n<strong>Currency Pair: GBP/USD</strong>\n<strong>Long/Short: Short</strong>\n<strong>Limit Order Entry Price: 1.6500</strong>\n<strong>My Proposed Position Size: 20%</strong>\n<strong>Stop Loss: 1.6550</strong>\n<strong>Target / Limit: 1.6200</strong></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>RT12:</strong>\n<strong>Currency Pair: EUR/AUD</strong>\n<strong>Long/Short: Long</strong>\n<strong>Limit Order Entry Price: 1.5215</strong>\n<strong>My Proposed Position Size: 20%</strong>\n<strong>Stop Loss: 1.4950</strong>\n<strong>Target / Limit: 1.7500 </strong></p>\nI am also looking at what I want to do with the USD/JPY, AUD/NZD, AUD/CHF and NZD/CHF. If I come to any decision these will be tweeted at  @pipaccumulator\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">3. FINAL THOUGHTS:</span></b>\n\nRemember, the above trade set-ups meet with my personal TRADING PLAN and my account parameters. Only trade within your TRADING PLAN and your account limits.\n\nDo not over-stretch your account….or, yourself!!\n\nThe next blog will be THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU this Saturday 11<sup>th</sup> January 2014.\n\nGood luck and take care.\n\n&nbsp;\n\nScott Pickering\nThe Pip Accumulator\nTuesday 7<sup>th</sup> January 2014.\n\nEMAIL / FOLLOW ME AT:\nEMAIL: <a href=\"mailto:scott@thepipaccumulator.com\">scott@thepipaccumulator.com\n</a><span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">Twitter: @pipaccumulator\n</span>Google+/scottpickering\nStockTwits: thepipaccumulator','THE MIDWEEK FX FIX - #10 (07.01.2014)','','publish','open','closed','','midweek-fx-fix-10-07-01-2014','','','2014-01-07 10:00:34','2014-01-07 15:00:34','',0,'http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/?p=2470',0,'post','',0),(2456,1,'2014-01-04 10:32:27','2014-01-04 15:32:27','04.01.2014\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">1. INTRODUCTION:</span></b>\r\n\r\nHappy New Year one and all, I trust that this blog finds everyone in good health and raring to get trading started in 2014, that is if like me you are still a 2014 trading virgin\r\n\r\nThis blog will be shorter than usual and will be a “Scott look at 2014” with my initial trading thoughts for this year. In addition, I will also provide you with an update on the launch of the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\nThe normal blog will return next weekend and will continue until the PREMIUM SERVICE is launched.\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">2.  MY VIEWS ON THE USD MAJORS THIS COMING YEAR 2014:</span></b>\r\n\r\nOver the holidays I have had plenty of time to sit back and strategize on my approach to 2014 and how it will vary from last year.\r\n\r\nThe major change in my recent trading style and strategy was brought about by the way the markets pushed and pulled traders around based on zero long term momentum, trend or direction. Inter-market correlations matter and count. There were huge disconnects in the second half of 2013.\r\n\r\nI see this disconnect continuing, hence my forward thinking into 2014 shows disconnects between the majors. My thoughts are that there will be more extended periods when currencies will act independently this year. Correlations will come and go.\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong>Typical examples of “the disconnect” are the following correlations: -</strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong> USD / Gold</strong>\r\n<strong> AUD / NZD</strong>\r\n<strong> Commodity currencies / equities</strong>\r\n<strong> EUR / GBP</strong>\r\n<strong> CAD / USD</strong>\r\n<strong> JPY / S&amp;P</strong>\r\n<strong> AUD &amp; NZD / Copper</strong>\r\n<strong> EUR / CHF</strong>\r\n<strong> EUR/GBP<span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">/ GBP/CHF</span></strong>\r\n<strong> JPY &amp; CHF / Gold</strong></p>\r\nI know that it may be corny and you have probably read lots of 2014 predictions already, but I still want to do one, which, I will refer back to each quarter during 2014. I have not traded this year so far, I have just been looking at charts reading and listening to various pieces in the media and on the web.\r\n\r\nI will for the purpose of review during this year go through each USD major one by one with thoughts associated to that currency pair.\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">EUR/USD:</span></b>\r\n\r\nMy initial thoughts are that whilst I am a fundamental trader at heart and I believe this to be a good thing, it did impair my trading a little in 2013. Without doubt along with many traders fundamentally the belief was always that the EUR/USD was over-priced and that a correction lower was always on the cards towards to 1.2500 area. Even with a surprise rate cut late in 2013 we never really broke lower than 1.3000 last year.\r\n\r\nThe Eurozone is still starved of economic growth and there are many, many economic and social problems spread throughout the Eurozone.\r\n\r\nMy short list of issues facing the Eurozone is highlighted below: -\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"> <i>AUSTERITY\r\n</i><i>GDP\r\n</i><i style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">UNEMPLOYMENT\r\n</i><i style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">HOUSING\r\n</i><i style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">LOW CPi\r\n</i><i style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">DEFLATION\r\n</i><i style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">BAD DEBT\r\n</i><i style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">SOCIAL UNREST\r\n</i><i style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">SOCIAL SERVICES\r\n</i><i style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">HEALTH CUTBACKS</i></p>\r\nThe monthly EUR/USD chart below shows that despite the Eurozone negative talk (and I have done my fair share) the pair is extremely resilient. There are more green monthly candlestick bars than red ones; in fact, it’s a 66/33 ratio in 2013 green over red. This hardly shows a currency pair under threat for most of the time. The chart also shows that a longer term bearish down sloping channel is still in play. As you can see we are most definitely at the higher reaches of the channel almost breaking it over the recent holidays.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/EURUSD-M-04012014.png\"><img src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/EURUSD-M-04012014.png\" alt=\"EURUSD M 04012014\" width=\"1076\" height=\"543\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-3094\" /></a>\r\n\r\n\r\nWith the above in mind, I am expecting that equity markets will pullback and aid USD strength, plus do not forget that “Tapering” has started and this is a major shift in FED policy. These two events will drive the EUR/USD lower,\r\n\r\nAdditionally, with the ECB under Draghi’s leadership and Merkel the puppet mistress at the controls they have yet to properly attack under funded banks, deflation and negative growth in the periphery. So far ECB hot air has kept the markets reasonably happy, but only to a point. Sooner or later a full-on bond-buying scheme like the FED’s QE programme will be required to add liquidity to the Eurozone economies, which should provide the necessary fuel to initiate growth. The banks need to lend to underpin the future prospects of the Eurozone.  I am not sure the LTRO approach will actually give the gusto required. To me, a further LTRO is yet another can being kicked down the road.\r\n\r\nDuring 2014 I think that Brussels will run out of cans to kick down the road and the Belgium hospitality industry should be a great investment. The reason for this investment tip is clear, as we will have umpteen Cheese and Wine ECB and Eurozone crisis meetings to finally fix things once and for all. Improvements in the U.S, will highlight how bad the Eurozone economy is in general in comparison and this will fuel the fire to demand action.\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">My EUR/USD prediction: -</span></b>\r\nWith the above happening, I see the EUR/USD trading below 1.3000 by the year-end; initially I see a test of the 1.2500/1.2600 lows.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">GBP/USD:</span></b>\r\n\r\nWithout doubt, the recovery in the UK was for me the joker in the pack towards the end of 2013. Carney (Bank of England, Governor) is doing his best to keep a lid on matters but the UK unlike the Eurozone and the U.S. is NOT suffering from a deflationary set of economic statistics. Whilst some economic data is patchy there is no denial that the UK is on a better economic footing than the Eurozone. It highlights that the one size fits all approach of the Eurozone does NOT work.\r\n\r\nThe chart below shows the 2008 high of the GBP/USD just over an exchange rate of 2.000, just before the BOE Inflation hearing from the then governor Merv “The Swerve” King. It dropped on his statement for 6 straight months to 1.3520.\r\n\r\nWe are now in a channel from 1.5000 to 1.6900.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/GBPUSD-M-04012014.png\"><img src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/GBPUSD-M-04012014.png\" alt=\"GBPUSD M 04012014\" width=\"1076\" height=\"543\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-3097\" /></a>\r\n\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">My GBP/USD prediction: -</span></b>\r\nCross–rates I am hoping will be my big trades in 2014 (see much more later). I feel that if the EUR/USD falls, the EUR/GBP will go with it and the GBP/USD which used to drop in sympathy with the EUR, will this year instead rise and I am predicting a re-test of the 61.8% retracement of the big monthly move on the chart above of 1.8250 will take place. The EUR/GBP is crucial to this predicted move. Should this move happen some great unwinds of cross-rates will happen and 2014 could be an excellent trading year with momentum and direction.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">AUD/USD:</span></b>\r\n\r\nThe worst kept secret in the Central Bank Governors world is out...RBA Governor Stevens wants the AUD currency weakened and he sees a AUD/USD exchange rate of about 0.8500 as a rate for the markets to aim for. Without doubt the equity markets will have the ultimate say here but tapering in the U.S. has started and equities should come under pressure, which, should force this pair lower.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/AUDUSD-M-04012014.png\"><img src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/AUDUSD-M-04012014.png\" alt=\"AUDUSD M 04012014\" width=\"1076\" height=\"543\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-3098\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">My AUD/USD prediction: -</span></b>\r\n\r\nI see the 50% retracement on the monthly chart above as the initial target and after that 0.8000 as the second objective in 2014 for this pair. This pair will yo-yo a bit given the fact of its relationship to the equity markets but the RBA is determined to weaken the AUD currency. If you learn anything…never argue or trade against a central bank.\r\nIn addition do not forget Gold, Copper and China. All three have huge impacts on this currency pair. Gold is under pressure because as a hedge against inflation, there is zero inflation to worry about so it is overpriced. It tested critical $1180.00 support over the holidays and bounced but it will re-test again. A break lower will take the AUD/USD with it. <span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">These factors make my 0.8000 target in 2014 look pretty tame.</span>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">NZD/USD:</span></b>\r\n\r\nContrary to the AUD, the RBNZ Governor Wheeler “the dealer” wants to raise rates and send the NZD higher in 2014 to control bubbles in the New Zealand economy. I can feel a cross-rate sermon coming on again. The AUD/NZD will be a focus for me in 2014, given that the RBA and RBNZ are on different paths.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/NZDUSD-M-04012014.png\"><img src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/NZDUSD-M-04012014.png\" alt=\"NZDUSD M 04012014\" width=\"1076\" height=\"543\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-3099\" /></a>\r\n\r\nLooking at the chart above and taking into considering equities, Gold, Copper and China. Common sense tells me that this pair should follow the AUD/USD lower, but I am 100% convinced. The cross-rate effect on the AUD/NZD could keep this pair well supported and inflated, add to this the RBNZ desire to raise rates and this pair could stay in the lofty heights of 0.7800 to 0.8800 for the year.\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">My NZD/USD prediction: -</span></b>\r\n\r\nThis is hard to write as for most of 2013 I have been trying to short this pair almost continually. This year for reasons already stated (RBA determination and the AUD/NZD cross-rate effect) I believe this pair will be the surprise and stay above 0.7800. I see a test of all-time highs being on the cards if the RBA forces the AUD lower and directly intervenes. Do not rule that out.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">USD/JPY:</span></b>\r\n\r\nIt is very easy to say 110.00 and maybe 120.00 is the target for this pair in 2014. Given the reputations and testicles on the chopping block, plus the amount of YEN being thrown at the markets an exchange rate of 120.00 seems achievable in the long term. The BOJ has committed considerably more funds than BEN at his best at the FED ever did.  It would therefore be brave nay foolish to stand in front of the USD/JPY freight train whilst the currency pair weakens to places not seen for years. Having written this, I think in true forex style we need to back test a breakout first before heading higher to the dizzy heights where the air is thin!!\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/USDJPY-M-04012014.png\"><img src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/USDJPY-M-04012014.png\" alt=\"USDJPY M 04012014\" width=\"1076\" height=\"543\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-3100\" /></a>\r\n\r\nThe monthly chart above shows the move from the highs of 124.23-pre financial crisis to the lows of 75.47-post financial crisis.\r\n\r\nA test of the 61.8% retracement seems to be on the cards at 105.59. This will be huge resistance.\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">My USD/JPY prediction: -</span></b>\r\n\r\nBreakouts are nearly almost always re-tested for validity. I believe that the USD/JPY will re-test lower than 100.00, probably 98.00 which was a major psychological number on the way higher and lower with this pair. After a test of 98.00 we head higher (Yen weakness). Equities will play their part taking this pair lower.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">USD/CHF:</span></b>\r\n\r\nBasically, we have been held by 0.8750 for the past two years and we recently re-tested this low to bounce off it. If my Eurozone issues are predicted correctly I see this pair heading higher once again. This pair is one of my long, long, longer term trades for 2014, and I am looking to buy on a dip very soon.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/USDCHF-M-04012014.png\"><img src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/USDCHF-M-04012014.png\" alt=\"USDCHF M 04012014\" width=\"1076\" height=\"543\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-3101\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">My USD/CHF prediction: -</span></b>\r\n\r\nIf the EUR/USD falls as predicted this pair will test parity in 2014. A break through resistance at 0.9415 will give my prediction the weight it needs to push onwards and upwards.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">USD/CAD:</span></b>\r\n\r\nThis is the most stubborn pain in the ass currency pair in the market, for me to follow anyway. I do however see that this pair should stay above parity in 2014. I think that we move higher as equities fall and then as equities stabilize later in 2014 we will pullback a little.\r\nThe monthly chart below shows that we are in an uptrend off the lows of 0.9640, to me I see this pattern continuing as we re-test higher levels.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/USDCAD-M-04012014.png\"><img src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/USDCAD-M-04012014.png\" alt=\"USDCAD M 04012014\" width=\"1076\" height=\"543\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-3102\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">My USD/CAD prediction: -</span></b>\r\n\r\nThere may be a re-test of the bullish trend line on the chart above but I do feel overall that we will be re-testing the 50% and maybe even the 61.8% Fibonacci levels of 1.1200 and 1.1665.\r\n\r\n<b style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">3. MY KEY FOCUS IN 2014:</span></b>\r\n\r\nYou would have noticed in the later blogs of 2013 my trading style and emphasis on what to trade took on a new direction.\r\n\r\nThe main reason for this was due to disconnects in the marketplace. Fundamentals count, but so do inter-market relationships/correlations. There were so many disconnects in 2013, I had to adjust my way of thinking and trading. I see this continuing in 2014 as well as this has been reflected already in the way I view the moves in the USD majors. There is a knock-on effect and this is my key focus this year.\r\n\r\nThe lack of momentum and direction in the USD majors, in particular, since the summer last year, required me to focus on a different style of trading. The push and pull moves for no reason, were frankly just annoying me, and, news events or poor news sound-bytes were causing wild swings in the major pairs that were just crazy and on many occasions based on nothing concrete, or remotely resembling factual data.\r\n\r\nThis prompted the introduction of pull-back strategy trades I called FLASH TRADES, and, a more disciplined approach to longer-term trades that I defined as RADAR TRADES.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>RADAR TRADES: These are pre-meditated limit order trades. I hope that these will be longer-term trades.</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>FLASH TRADES: These are more of an intra-day trade. They may develop into “Swing style” trades but will probably be more short term.</strong><strong> </strong></p>\r\nAt the same time, I started to look more and more at cross-rate pairs and exotic crosses. These were largely successful from September 2013. This focus will continue in 2014. I will still trade the majors, but I think more from a FLASH TRADE perspective. My initial focus in 2014 will be to look at the cross-rates. My primary reason for this is that since 2008 these pairs have largely been directionally lower as equities have risen to all time highs. When equities roll over “The unwinding will begin”. With the commodity currencies it has already started and there are 1,000’s of pips still available. We will be unwinding 5 and 6 years of moves.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Be prepared for many trades in the following pairs in 2014: -</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"> EUR/AUD\r\nGBP/AUD\r\nEUR/NZD\r\nGBP/NZD\r\nEUR/CAD\r\nGBP/CAD</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">Plus the\r\nAUD/NZD\r\nEUR/GBP\r\nAUD/CHF\r\n<span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">NZD/CHF</span></p>\r\nThe moves can be wild in most of these pairs as they are not well-funded but they can be very directional with risk off or risk on conditions and offer good returns. The key is to take smaller positions with wider stops to cope with the volatility. A point to note is that these pairs can be very costly overnight carry trades. To trade these we will have to be clever, at the same time I will be assessing risk prior to entries to ensure minimum risk maximum profitability ratios.\r\n\r\nTrading these pairs is all about a trading discipline\r\n\r\nLook my trading style - it’s simple: -\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>FUNDAMENTALS MATTER TO ME</i></strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>I TRADE TO MAKE MONEY…NOT TO PICK TOPS OR BOTTOMS</i></strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>I TRADE LOW RISK</i></strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>I DO NOT CHASE MARKETS</i></strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>I LIKE THE TRADES TO COME TO ME</i></strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>I AM NOT A GREEDY TRADER</i></strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>I LIKE TO TRADE MOMENTUMS IN THE DIRECTION OF TRENDS</i></strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>I USE FIBONACCI LEVELS TO ENTER &amp; EXIT ON MANY TRADES</i></strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>PLUS...</i></strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>MY TRADING STYLE IS MIXED EVEN WITH THE ABOVE KEY BASICS</i></strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>I USE THE PULLBACK STRATEGY TO ENTER AND I LIKE SWING AND LONGER-TERM TRADES (WHEN POSSIBLE)</i></strong></p>\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">4. MAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:</span></b>\r\n\r\nSUNDAY: N/A\r\n\r\nMONDAY: USD – ISM Non- Manufacturing PMi.\r\nMONDAY: AUD – Trade Balance.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: CAD – Trade Balance\r\nTUESDAY: USD – Trade Balance\r\nTUESDAY: CNY – CPi, GDP and Trade Balance.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – ADP Non- Farm Employment change and FOMC minutes.\r\nWEDNESDAY: AUD – Retail Sales.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: GBP – Interest Rates\r\nTHURSDAY: EUR – Interest Rates and ECB Press Conference.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: CAD – Employment rates/changes\r\nFRIDAY: USD – Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Rates.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">5. THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</span></b>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU</span></b><b>\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">PREMIUM SERVICE  2014 </span></b>\r\n\r\nI am still working with my software developer to have this addition to the WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU ready within the next two weeks. My intention is to launch the PREMIUM SERVICE subscription service as soon as the markets revert back to normal liquidity.\r\n\r\nWe have noticed however that a number people have tried to register already., For anyone who has tried to register their details were deleted by the system under beta testing and even if you believe that you have an existing login or username that is not the case. As soon as I write announcing that the PREMIUM SERVICE is ready, sorry, but you will have to register again.\r\n\r\nFor those new readers below I detail the salient points regarding the premium service: -\r\n\r\nAs soon as the PREMIUM SERVICE is launched THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU in its current format will change. It will remain a weekly blog post although it will be more concise in length.\r\n\r\nMy “RADAR and FLASH TRADES” will now only be available via the Premium Service. In addition, “TRADE IDEAS &amp; SET UPS” that are tweeted will now only be available to Premium Service subscribers by email and in addition they can be viewed inside the secure section of my website.\r\n\r\nBelow as examples of the RADAR and FLASH TRADES excel spreadsheets I show the monthly statements for December 2013. (These were real trades that were tweeted or posted in this blog).\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/RADAR-TRADES-21122013.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-2379\" alt=\"RADAR TRADES 21122013\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/RADAR-TRADES-21122013.png\" width=\"455\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/FLASH-TRADES-21122013.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-2378\" alt=\"FLASH TRADES 21122013\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/FLASH-TRADES-21122013.png\" width=\"411\" height=\"437\" /></a>\r\n\r\nIn 2013, feedback from subscribers to the “Drive-Thru”, or from readers of the blog via Google+, LinkedIn or Twitter have been raising many questions about Forex Trading in general, such as: -\r\n\r\n</p><p align=\"center\"><b> </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Placing Stops</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Strategies on entry and exit</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Working with a Trade Plan</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>What is a Trade Plan?</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Risk Assessment</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>When to fade trades</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>How to cost average effectively</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>How to use Trade Zones effectively - Buy Zones and Sell zones</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Working with Fibonacci levels</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>How to find a good broker to partner with</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Chart analysis</b></p>\r\nInside the secure area of my website, you will be able to reference information on all of the above topics plus much more. The library of information will grow during 2014 and my goal is to provide a comprehensive support area to traders of all experience levels. The PREMIUM SERVICE in its secure area will be a learning and reference area to subscribers.\r\n\r\nI am also looking to offer training and information based “Webinars” to Premium Service subscription members, if I have sufficient participants. These will be fee based to cover costs.\r\n\r\nWhilst upon first look, it may appear that the Premium Service is directed solely at new traders, or those with intermediate skill levels, please note this is not my intention. Trading can be lonely, and sometimes it is good to feel that you are part of a team. With this in mind, I am thinking that a “Chat Room” style area would be of benefit to all traders to share ideas and trade set-ups. Plus, whether a new trader or experienced trader it is always good to have a library of information available close at hand.\r\n\r\nWhat are the costs of membership?\r\n\r\nThere will be 40 weekly blogs / issues per year (I will not write in the Summer and over Christmas periods), with an unlimited amount of follow ups during the week to review and act upon “Radar Trades” and issues emanating from previous blogs. In addition trade ideas for trades already in play would also be part of the service, as I will be trading the posted set-ups.\r\n\r\nI do not want to become a finance administrator on a daily basis so I want to keep the subscription options as few as possible.\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>ANNUAL (40 WEEK) SUBSCRIPTION: $750.00 (this equates to $18.75 per week) </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>20 WEEKS SUBSCRIPTION: $450.00 (this equates to $22.50 per week) </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>10 WEEKS SUBSCRIPTION: $250.00 (this equates to $25.00 per week) </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>(ALL FEES ARE IN USD)</b></p>\r\nShould you have any questions regarding the PREMIUM SERVICE please email me at premiumservice@thepipaccumulator.com\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">9. FINAL THOUGHTS:</span></b>\r\n\r\nIt is a busy week for my first week back in the saddle.\r\n\r\nWe should see liquidity come back to the market this week and currency moves should be more sustainable.\r\n\r\nI will be posting RADAR and FLASH trade set ups via twitter as the week progresses and they will be performance measured via spreadsheets in next week blog.\r\n\r\nUntil we reach full liquidity if you are going to trade keep the positions smaller.\r\n\r\nGood luck,\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nSaturday January 4<sup>th</sup> 2014\r\n\r\nEMAIL / FOLLOW ME AT:\r\n<a href=\"mailto:drivethru@thepipaccumulator.com\">drivethru@thepipaccumulator.com\r\n</a>Twitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n<span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">Google+/scottpickering\r\n</span><span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">StockTwits; thepipaccumulator</span>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','MY TRADE IDEAS AND THOUGHTS LOOKING FORWARD AT 2014','','publish','open','closed','','trade-ideas-thoughts-looking-forward-2014','','','2014-01-20 15:35:59','2014-01-20 20:35:59','',0,'http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/?p=2456',0,'post','',0),(3091,16,'2014-01-20 15:21:55','2014-01-20 20:21:55','04.01.2014\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">1. INTRODUCTION:</span></b>\r\n\r\nHappy New Year one and all, I trust that this blog finds everyone in good health and raring to get trading started in 2014, that is if like me you are still a 2014 trading virgin\r\n\r\nThis blog will be shorter than usual and will be a “Scott look at 2014” with my initial trading thoughts for this year. In addition, I will also provide you with an update on the launch of the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\nThe normal blog will return next weekend and will continue until the PREMIUM SERVICE is launched.\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">2.  MY VIEWS ON THE USD MAJORS THIS COMING YEAR 2014:</span></b>\r\n\r\nOver the holidays I have had plenty of time to sit back and strategize on my approach to 2014 and how it will vary from last year.\r\n\r\nThe major change in my recent trading style and strategy was brought about by the way the markets pushed and pulled traders around based on zero long term momentum, trend or direction. Inter-market correlations matter and count. There were huge disconnects in the second half of 2013.\r\n\r\nI see this disconnect continuing, hence my forward thinking into 2014 shows disconnects between the majors. My thoughts are that there will be more extended periods when currencies will act independently this year. Correlations will come and go.\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong>Typical examples of “the disconnect” are the following correlations: -</strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong> USD / Gold</strong>\r\n<strong> AUD / NZD</strong>\r\n<strong> Commodity currencies / equities</strong>\r\n<strong> EUR / GBP</strong>\r\n<strong> CAD / USD</strong>\r\n<strong> JPY / S&amp;P</strong>\r\n<strong> AUD &amp; NZD / Copper</strong>\r\n<strong> EUR / CHF</strong>\r\n<strong> EUR/GBP<span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">/ GBP/CHF</span></strong>\r\n<strong> JPY &amp; CHF / Gold</strong></p>\r\nI know that it may be corny and you have probably read lots of 2014 predictions already, but I still want to do one, which, I will refer back to each quarter during 2014. I have not traded this year so far, I have just been looking at charts reading and listening to various pieces in the media and on the web.\r\n\r\nI will for the purpose of review during this year go through each USD major one by one with thoughts associated to that currency pair.\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">EUR/USD:</span></b>\r\n\r\nMy initial thoughts are that whilst I am a fundamental trader at heart and I believe this to be a good thing, it did impair my trading a little in 2013. Without doubt along with many traders fundamentally the belief was always that the EUR/USD was over-priced and that a correction lower was always on the cards towards to 1.2500 area. Even with a surprise rate cut late in 2013 we never really broke lower than 1.3000 last year.\r\n\r\nThe Eurozone is still starved of economic growth and there are many, many economic and social problems spread throughout the Eurozone.\r\n\r\nMy short list of issues facing the Eurozone is highlighted below: -\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"> <i>AUSTERITY\r\n</i><i>GDP\r\n</i><i style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">UNEMPLOYMENT\r\n</i><i style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">HOUSING\r\n</i><i style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">LOW CPi\r\n</i><i style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">DEFLATION\r\n</i><i style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">BAD DEBT\r\n</i><i style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">SOCIAL UNREST\r\n</i><i style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">SOCIAL SERVICES\r\n</i><i style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">HEALTH CUTBACKS</i></p>\r\nThe monthly EUR/USD chart below shows that despite the Eurozone negative talk (and I have done my fair share) the pair is extremely resilient. There are more green monthly candlestick bars than red ones; in fact, it’s a 66/33 ratio in 2013 green over red. This hardly shows a currency pair under threat for most of the time. The chart also shows that a longer term bearish down sloping channel is still in play. As you can see we are most definitely at the higher reaches of the channel almost breaking it over the recent holidays.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/EURUSD-M-04012014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-2459\" alt=\"EURUSD M 04012014\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/EURUSD-M-04012014.png\" width=\"660\" /></a>\r\n\r\nWith the above in mind, I am expecting that equity markets will pullback and aid USD strength, plus do not forget that “Tapering” has started and this is a major shift in FED policy. These two events will drive the EUR/USD lower,\r\n\r\nAdditionally, with the ECB under Draghi’s leadership and Merkel the puppet mistress at the controls they have yet to properly attack under funded banks, deflation and negative growth in the periphery. So far ECB hot air has kept the markets reasonably happy, but only to a point. Sooner or later a full-on bond-buying scheme like the FED’s QE programme will be required to add liquidity to the Eurozone economies, which should provide the necessary fuel to initiate growth. The banks need to lend to underpin the future prospects of the Eurozone.  I am not sure the LTRO approach will actually give the gusto required. To me, a further LTRO is yet another can being kicked down the road.\r\n\r\nDuring 2014 I think that Brussels will run out of cans to kick down the road and the Belgium hospitality industry should be a great investment. The reason for this investment tip is clear, as we will have umpteen Cheese and Wine ECB and Eurozone crisis meetings to finally fix things once and for all. Improvements in the U.S, will highlight how bad the Eurozone economy is in general in comparison and this will fuel the fire to demand action.\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">My EUR/USD prediction: -</span></b>\r\nWith the above happening, I see the EUR/USD trading below 1.3000 by the year-end; initially I see a test of the 1.2500/1.2600 lows.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">GBP/USD:</span></b>\r\n\r\nWithout doubt, the recovery in the UK was for me the joker in the pack towards the end of 2013. Carney (Bank of England, Governor) is doing his best to keep a lid on matters but the UK unlike the Eurozone and the U.S. is NOT suffering from a deflationary set of economic statistics. Whilst some economic data is patchy there is no denial that the UK is on a better economic footing than the Eurozone. It highlights that the one size fits all approach of the Eurozone does NOT work.\r\n\r\nThe chart below shows the 2008 high of the GBP/USD just over an exchange rate of 2.000, just before the BOE Inflation hearing from the then governor Merv “The Swerve” King. It dropped on his statement for 6 straight months to 1.3520.\r\n\r\nWe are now in a channel from 1.5000 to 1.6900.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/GBPUSD-M-04012014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-2460\" alt=\"GBPUSD M 04012014\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/GBPUSD-M-04012014.png\" width=\"660\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">My GBP/USD prediction: -</span></b>\r\nCross–rates I am hoping will be my big trades in 2014 (see much more later). I feel that if the EUR/USD falls, the EUR/GBP will go with it and the GBP/USD which used to drop in sympathy with the EUR, will this year instead rise and I am predicting a re-test of the 61.8% retracement of the big monthly move on the chart above of 1.8250 will take place. The EUR/GBP is crucial to this predicted move. Should this move happen some great unwinds of cross-rates will happen and 2014 could be an excellent trading year with momentum and direction.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">AUD/USD:</span></b>\r\n\r\nThe worst kept secret in the Central Bank Governors world is out...RBA Governor Stevens wants the AUD currency weakened and he sees a AUD/USD exchange rate of about 0.8500 as a rate for the markets to aim for. Without doubt the equity markets will have the ultimate say here but tapering in the U.S. has started and equities should come under pressure, which, should force this pair lower.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/AUDUSD-M-04012014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-2462\" alt=\"AUDUSD M 04012014\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/AUDUSD-M-04012014.png\" width=\"660\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">My AUD/USD prediction: -</span></b>\r\n\r\nI see the 50% retracement on the monthly chart above as the initial target and after that 0.8000 as the second objective in 2014 for this pair. This pair will yo-yo a bit given the fact of its relationship to the equity markets but the RBA is determined to weaken the AUD currency. If you learn anything…never argue or trade against a central bank.\r\nIn addition do not forget Gold, Copper and China. All three have huge impacts on this currency pair. Gold is under pressure because as a hedge against inflation, there is zero inflation to worry about so it is overpriced. It tested critical $1180.00 support over the holidays and bounced but it will re-test again. A break lower will take the AUD/USD with it. <span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">These factors make my 0.8000 target in 2014 look pretty tame.</span>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">NZD/USD:</span></b>\r\n\r\nContrary to the AUD, the RBNZ Governor Wheeler “the dealer” wants to raise rates and send the NZD higher in 2014 to control bubbles in the New Zealand economy. I can feel a cross-rate sermon coming on again. The AUD/NZD will be a focus for me in 2014, given that the RBA and RBNZ are on different paths.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/NZDUSD-M-04012014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-2461\" alt=\"NZDUSD M 04012014\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/NZDUSD-M-04012014.png\" width=\"660\" /></a>\r\n\r\nLooking at the chart above and taking into considering equities, Gold, Copper and China. Common sense tells me that this pair should follow the AUD/USD lower, but I am 100% convinced. The cross-rate effect on the AUD/NZD could keep this pair well supported and inflated, add to this the RBNZ desire to raise rates and this pair could stay in the lofty heights of 0.7800 to 0.8800 for the year.\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">My NZD/USD prediction: -</span></b>\r\n\r\nThis is hard to write as for most of 2013 I have been trying to short this pair almost continually. This year for reasons already stated (RBA determination and the AUD/NZD cross-rate effect) I believe this pair will be the surprise and stay above 0.7800. I see a test of all-time highs being on the cards if the RBA forces the AUD lower and directly intervenes. Do not rule that out.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">USD/JPY:</span></b>\r\n\r\nIt is very easy to say 110.00 and maybe 120.00 is the target for this pair in 2014. Given the reputations and testicles on the chopping block, plus the amount of YEN being thrown at the markets an exchange rate of 120.00 seems achievable in the long term. The BOJ has committed considerably more funds than BEN at his best at the FED ever did.  It would therefore be brave nay foolish to stand in front of the USD/JPY freight train whilst the currency pair weakens to places not seen for years. Having written this, I think in true forex style we need to back test a breakout first before heading higher to the dizzy heights where the air is thin!!\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/USDJPY-M-04012014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-2465\" alt=\"USDJPY M 04012014\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/USDJPY-M-04012014.png\" width=\"660\" /></a>\r\n\r\nThe monthly chart above shows the move from the highs of 124.23-pre financial crisis to the lows of 75.47-post financial crisis.\r\n\r\nA test of the 61.8% retracement seems to be on the cards at 105.59. This will be huge resistance.\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">My USD/JPY prediction: -</span></b>\r\n\r\nBreakouts are nearly almost always re-tested for validity. I believe that the USD/JPY will re-test lower than 100.00, probably 98.00 which was a major psychological number on the way higher and lower with this pair. After a test of 98.00 we head higher (Yen weakness). Equities will play their part taking this pair lower.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">USD/CHF:</span></b>\r\n\r\nBasically, we have been held by 0.8750 for the past two years and we recently re-tested this low to bounce off it. If my Eurozone issues are predicted correctly I see this pair heading higher once again. This pair is one of my long, long, longer term trades for 2014, and I am looking to buy on a dip very soon.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/USDCHF-M-04012014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-2464\" alt=\"USDCHF M 04012014\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/USDCHF-M-04012014.png\" width=\"660\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">My USD/CHF prediction: -</span></b>\r\n\r\nIf the EUR/USD falls as predicted this pair will test parity in 2014. A break through resistance at 0.9415 will give my prediction the weight it needs to push onwards and upwards.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">USD/CAD:</span></b>\r\n\r\nThis is the most stubborn pain in the ass currency pair in the market, for me to follow anyway. I do however see that this pair should stay above parity in 2014. I think that we move higher as equities fall and then as equities stabilize later in 2014 we will pullback a little.\r\nThe monthly chart below shows that we are in an uptrend off the lows of 0.9640, to me I see this pattern continuing as we re-test higher levels.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/USDCAD-M-04012014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-2463\" alt=\"USDCAD M 04012014\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/USDCAD-M-04012014.png\" width=\"660\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">My USD/CAD prediction: -</span></b>\r\n\r\nThere may be a re-test of the bullish trend line on the chart above but I do feel overall that we will be re-testing the 50% and maybe even the 61.8% Fibonacci levels of 1.1200 and 1.1665.\r\n\r\n<b style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">3. MY KEY FOCUS IN 2014:</span></b>\r\n\r\nYou would have noticed in the later blogs of 2013 my trading style and emphasis on what to trade took on a new direction.\r\n\r\nThe main reason for this was due to disconnects in the marketplace. Fundamentals count, but so do inter-market relationships/correlations. There were so many disconnects in 2013, I had to adjust my way of thinking and trading. I see this continuing in 2014 as well as this has been reflected already in the way I view the moves in the USD majors. There is a knock-on effect and this is my key focus this year.\r\n\r\nThe lack of momentum and direction in the USD majors, in particular, since the summer last year, required me to focus on a different style of trading. The push and pull moves for no reason, were frankly just annoying me, and, news events or poor news sound-bytes were causing wild swings in the major pairs that were just crazy and on many occasions based on nothing concrete, or remotely resembling factual data.\r\n\r\nThis prompted the introduction of pull-back strategy trades I called FLASH TRADES, and, a more disciplined approach to longer-term trades that I defined as RADAR TRADES.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>RADAR TRADES: These are pre-meditated limit order trades. I hope that these will be longer-term trades.</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>FLASH TRADES: These are more of an intra-day trade. They may develop into “Swing style” trades but will probably be more short term.</strong><strong> </strong></p>\r\nAt the same time, I started to look more and more at cross-rate pairs and exotic crosses. These were largely successful from September 2013. This focus will continue in 2014. I will still trade the majors, but I think more from a FLASH TRADE perspective. My initial focus in 2014 will be to look at the cross-rates. My primary reason for this is that since 2008 these pairs have largely been directionally lower as equities have risen to all time highs. When equities roll over “The unwinding will begin”. With the commodity currencies it has already started and there are 1,000’s of pips still available. We will be unwinding 5 and 6 years of moves.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Be prepared for many trades in the following pairs in 2014: -</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"> EUR/AUD\r\nGBP/AUD\r\nEUR/NZD\r\nGBP/NZD\r\nEUR/CAD\r\nGBP/CAD</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">Plus the\r\nAUD/NZD\r\nEUR/GBP\r\nAUD/CHF\r\n<span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">NZD/CHF</span></p>\r\nThe moves can be wild in most of these pairs as they are not well-funded but they can be very directional with risk off or risk on conditions and offer good returns. The key is to take smaller positions with wider stops to cope with the volatility. A point to note is that these pairs can be very costly overnight carry trades. To trade these we will have to be clever, at the same time I will be assessing risk prior to entries to ensure minimum risk maximum profitability ratios.\r\n\r\nTrading these pairs is all about a trading discipline\r\n\r\nLook my trading style - it’s simple: -\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>FUNDAMENTALS MATTER TO ME</i></strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>I TRADE TO MAKE MONEY…NOT TO PICK TOPS OR BOTTOMS</i></strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>I TRADE LOW RISK</i></strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>I DO NOT CHASE MARKETS</i></strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>I LIKE THE TRADES TO COME TO ME</i></strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>I AM NOT A GREEDY TRADER</i></strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>I LIKE TO TRADE MOMENTUMS IN THE DIRECTION OF TRENDS</i></strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>I USE FIBONACCI LEVELS TO ENTER &amp; EXIT ON MANY TRADES</i></strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>PLUS...</i></strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>MY TRADING STYLE IS MIXED EVEN WITH THE ABOVE KEY BASICS</i></strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>I USE THE PULLBACK STRATEGY TO ENTER AND I LIKE SWING AND LONGER-TERM TRADES (WHEN POSSIBLE)</i></strong></p>\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">4. MAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:</span></b>\r\n\r\nSUNDAY: N/A\r\n\r\nMONDAY: USD – ISM Non- Manufacturing PMi.\r\nMONDAY: AUD – Trade Balance.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: CAD – Trade Balance\r\nTUESDAY: USD – Trade Balance\r\nTUESDAY: CNY – CPi, GDP and Trade Balance.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – ADP Non- Farm Employment change and FOMC minutes.\r\nWEDNESDAY: AUD – Retail Sales.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: GBP – Interest Rates\r\nTHURSDAY: EUR – Interest Rates and ECB Press Conference.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: CAD – Employment rates/changes\r\nFRIDAY: USD – Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Rates.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">5. THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</span></b>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU</span></b><b>\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">PREMIUM SERVICE  2014 </span></b>\r\n\r\nI am still working with my software developer to have this addition to the WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU ready within the next two weeks. My intention is to launch the PREMIUM SERVICE subscription service as soon as the markets revert back to normal liquidity.\r\n\r\nWe have noticed however that a number people have tried to register already., For anyone who has tried to register their details were deleted by the system under beta testing and even if you believe that you have an existing login or username that is not the case. As soon as I write announcing that the PREMIUM SERVICE is ready, sorry, but you will have to register again.\r\n\r\nFor those new readers below I detail the salient points regarding the premium service: -\r\n\r\nAs soon as the PREMIUM SERVICE is launched THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU in its current format will change. It will remain a weekly blog post although it will be more concise in length.\r\n\r\nMy “RADAR and FLASH TRADES” will now only be available via the Premium Service. In addition, “TRADE IDEAS &amp; SET UPS” that are tweeted will now only be available to Premium Service subscribers by email and in addition they can be viewed inside the secure section of my website.\r\n\r\nBelow as examples of the RADAR and FLASH TRADES excel spreadsheets I show the monthly statements for December 2013. (These were real trades that were tweeted or posted in this blog).\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/RADAR-TRADES-21122013.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-2379\" alt=\"RADAR TRADES 21122013\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/RADAR-TRADES-21122013.png\" width=\"455\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/FLASH-TRADES-21122013.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-2378\" alt=\"FLASH TRADES 21122013\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/FLASH-TRADES-21122013.png\" width=\"411\" height=\"437\" /></a>\r\n\r\nIn 2013, feedback from subscribers to the “Drive-Thru”, or from readers of the blog via Google+, LinkedIn or Twitter have been raising many questions about Forex Trading in general, such as: -\r\n\r\n</p><p align=\"center\"><b> </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Placing Stops</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Strategies on entry and exit</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Working with a Trade Plan</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>What is a Trade Plan?</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Risk Assessment</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>When to fade trades</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>How to cost average effectively</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>How to use Trade Zones effectively - Buy Zones and Sell zones</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Working with Fibonacci levels</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>How to find a good broker to partner with</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Chart analysis</b></p>\r\nInside the secure area of my website, you will be able to reference information on all of the above topics plus much more. The library of information will grow during 2014 and my goal is to provide a comprehensive support area to traders of all experience levels. The PREMIUM SERVICE in its secure area will be a learning and reference area to subscribers.\r\n\r\nI am also looking to offer training and information based “Webinars” to Premium Service subscription members, if I have sufficient participants. These will be fee based to cover costs.\r\n\r\nWhilst upon first look, it may appear that the Premium Service is directed solely at new traders, or those with intermediate skill levels, please note this is not my intention. Trading can be lonely, and sometimes it is good to feel that you are part of a team. With this in mind, I am thinking that a “Chat Room” style area would be of benefit to all traders to share ideas and trade set-ups. Plus, whether a new trader or experienced trader it is always good to have a library of information available close at hand.\r\n\r\nWhat are the costs of membership?\r\n\r\nThere will be 40 weekly blogs / issues per year (I will not write in the Summer and over Christmas periods), with an unlimited amount of follow ups during the week to review and act upon “Radar Trades” and issues emanating from previous blogs. In addition trade ideas for trades already in play would also be part of the service, as I will be trading the posted set-ups.\r\n\r\nI do not want to become a finance administrator on a daily basis so I want to keep the subscription options as few as possible.\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>ANNUAL (40 WEEK) SUBSCRIPTION: $750.00 (this equates to $18.75 per week) </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>20 WEEKS SUBSCRIPTION: $450.00 (this equates to $22.50 per week) </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>10 WEEKS SUBSCRIPTION: $250.00 (this equates to $25.00 per week) </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>(ALL FEES ARE IN USD)</b></p>\r\nShould you have any questions regarding the PREMIUM SERVICE please email me at premiumservice@thepipaccumulator.com\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">9. FINAL THOUGHTS:</span></b>\r\n\r\nIt is a busy week for my first week back in the saddle.\r\n\r\nWe should see liquidity come back to the market this week and currency moves should be more sustainable.\r\n\r\nI will be posting RADAR and FLASH trade set ups via twitter as the week progresses and they will be performance measured via spreadsheets in next week blog.\r\n\r\nUntil we reach full liquidity if you are going to trade keep the positions smaller.\r\n\r\nGood luck,\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nSaturday January 4<sup>th</sup> 2014\r\n\r\nEMAIL / FOLLOW ME AT:\r\n<a href=\"mailto:drivethru@thepipaccumulator.com\">drivethru@thepipaccumulator.com\r\n</a>Twitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n<span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">Google+/scottpickering\r\n</span><span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">StockTwits; thepipaccumulator</span>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','MY TRADE IDEAS AND THOUGHTS LOOKING FORWARD AT 2014','','inherit','open','closed','','2456-revision-v1','','','2014-01-20 15:21:55','2014-01-20 20:21:55','',2456,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/2456-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(3054,16,'2014-01-20 12:59:06','2014-01-20 17:59:06','04.01.2014\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">1. INTRODUCTION:</span></b>\r\n\r\nHappy New Year one and all, I trust that this blog finds everyone in good health and raring to get trading started in 2014, that is if like me you are still a 2014 trading virgin\r\n\r\nThis blog will be shorter than usual and will be a “Scott look at 2014” with my initial trading thoughts for this year. In addition, I will also provide you with an update on the launch of the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\nThe normal blog will return next weekend and will continue until the PREMIUM SERVICE is launched.\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">2.  MY VIEWS ON THE USD MAJORS THIS COMING YEAR 2014:</span></b>\r\n\r\nOver the holidays I have had plenty of time to sit back and strategize on my approach to 2014 and how it will vary from last year.\r\n\r\nThe major change in my recent trading style and strategy was brought about by the way the markets pushed and pulled traders around based on zero long term momentum, trend or direction. Inter-market correlations matter and count. There were huge disconnects in the second half of 2013.\r\n\r\nI see this disconnect continuing, hence my forward thinking into 2014 shows disconnects between the majors. My thoughts are that there will be more extended periods when currencies will act independently this year. Correlations will come and go.\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong>Typical examples of “the disconnect” are the following correlations: -</strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong> USD / Gold</strong>\r\n<strong> AUD / NZD</strong>\r\n<strong> Commodity currencies / equities</strong>\r\n<strong> EUR / GBP</strong>\r\n<strong> CAD / USD</strong>\r\n<strong> JPY / S&amp;P</strong>\r\n<strong> AUD &amp; NZD / Copper</strong>\r\n<strong> EUR / CHF</strong>\r\n<strong> EUR/GBP<span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">/ GBP/CHF</span></strong>\r\n<strong> JPY &amp; CHF / Gold</strong></p>\r\nI know that it may be corny and you have probably read lots of 2014 predictions already, but I still want to do one, which, I will refer back to each quarter during 2014. I have not traded this year so far, I have just been looking at charts reading and listening to various pieces in the media and on the web.\r\n\r\nI will for the purpose of review during this year go through each USD major one by one with thoughts associated to that currency pair.\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">EUR/USD:</span></b>\r\n\r\nMy initial thoughts are that whilst I am a fundamental trader at heart and I believe this to be a good thing, it did impair my trading a little in 2013. Without doubt along with many traders fundamentally the belief was always that the EUR/USD was over-priced and that a correction lower was always on the cards towards to 1.2500 area. Even with a surprise rate cut late in 2013 we never really broke lower than 1.3000 last year.\r\n\r\nThe Eurozone is still starved of economic growth and there are many, many economic and social problems spread throughout the Eurozone.\r\n\r\nMy short list of issues facing the Eurozone is highlighted below: -\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"> <i>AUSTERITY\r\n</i><i>GDP\r\n</i><i style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">UNEMPLOYMENT\r\n</i><i style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">HOUSING\r\n</i><i style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">LOW CPi\r\n</i><i style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">DEFLATION\r\n</i><i style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">BAD DEBT\r\n</i><i style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">SOCIAL UNREST\r\n</i><i style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">SOCIAL SERVICES\r\n</i><i style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">HEALTH CUTBACKS</i></p>\r\nThe monthly EUR/USD chart below shows that despite the Eurozone negative talk (and I have done my fair share) the pair is extremely resilient. There are more green monthly candlestick bars than red ones; in fact, it’s a 66/33 ratio in 2013 green over red. This hardly shows a currency pair under threat for most of the time. The chart also shows that a longer term bearish down sloping channel is still in play. As you can see we are most definitely at the higher reaches of the channel almost breaking it over the recent holidays.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/EURUSD-M-04012014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-2459\" alt=\"EURUSD M 04012014\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/EURUSD-M-04012014-1024x516.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"516\" /></a>\r\n\r\nWith the above in mind, I am expecting that equity markets will pullback and aid USD strength, plus do not forget that “Tapering” has started and this is a major shift in FED policy. These two events will drive the EUR/USD lower,\r\n\r\nAdditionally, with the ECB under Draghi’s leadership and Merkel the puppet mistress at the controls they have yet to properly attack under funded banks, deflation and negative growth in the periphery. So far ECB hot air has kept the markets reasonably happy, but only to a point. Sooner or later a full-on bond-buying scheme like the FED’s QE programme will be required to add liquidity to the Eurozone economies, which should provide the necessary fuel to initiate growth. The banks need to lend to underpin the future prospects of the Eurozone.  I am not sure the LTRO approach will actually give the gusto required. To me, a further LTRO is yet another can being kicked down the road.\r\n\r\nDuring 2014 I think that Brussels will run out of cans to kick down the road and the Belgium hospitality industry should be a great investment. The reason for this investment tip is clear, as we will have umpteen Cheese and Wine ECB and Eurozone crisis meetings to finally fix things once and for all. Improvements in the U.S, will highlight how bad the Eurozone economy is in general in comparison and this will fuel the fire to demand action.\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">My EUR/USD prediction: -</span></b>\r\nWith the above happening, I see the EUR/USD trading below 1.3000 by the year-end; initially I see a test of the 1.2500/1.2600 lows.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">GBP/USD:</span></b>\r\n\r\nWithout doubt, the recovery in the UK was for me the joker in the pack towards the end of 2013. Carney (Bank of England, Governor) is doing his best to keep a lid on matters but the UK unlike the Eurozone and the U.S. is NOT suffering from a deflationary set of economic statistics. Whilst some economic data is patchy there is no denial that the UK is on a better economic footing than the Eurozone. It highlights that the one size fits all approach of the Eurozone does NOT work.\r\n\r\nThe chart below shows the 2008 high of the GBP/USD just over an exchange rate of 2.000, just before the BOE Inflation hearing from the then governor Merv “The Swerve” King. It dropped on his statement for 6 straight months to 1.3520.\r\n\r\nWe are now in a channel from 1.5000 to 1.6900.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/GBPUSD-M-04012014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-2460\" alt=\"GBPUSD M 04012014\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/GBPUSD-M-04012014-1024x516.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"516\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">My GBP/USD prediction: -</span></b>\r\nCross–rates I am hoping will be my big trades in 2014 (see much more later). I feel that if the EUR/USD falls, the EUR/GBP will go with it and the GBP/USD which used to drop in sympathy with the EUR, will this year instead rise and I am predicting a re-test of the 61.8% retracement of the big monthly move on the chart above of 1.8250 will take place. The EUR/GBP is crucial to this predicted move. Should this move happen some great unwinds of cross-rates will happen and 2014 could be an excellent trading year with momentum and direction.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">AUD/USD:</span></b>\r\n\r\nThe worst kept secret in the Central Bank Governors world is out...RBA Governor Stevens wants the AUD currency weakened and he sees a AUD/USD exchange rate of about 0.8500 as a rate for the markets to aim for. Without doubt the equity markets will have the ultimate say here but tapering in the U.S. has started and equities should come under pressure, which, should force this pair lower.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/AUDUSD-M-04012014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-2462\" alt=\"AUDUSD M 04012014\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/AUDUSD-M-04012014-1024x516.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"516\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">My AUD/USD prediction: -</span></b>\r\n\r\nI see the 50% retracement on the monthly chart above as the initial target and after that 0.8000 as the second objective in 2014 for this pair. This pair will yo-yo a bit given the fact of its relationship to the equity markets but the RBA is determined to weaken the AUD currency. If you learn anything…never argue or trade against a central bank.\r\nIn addition do not forget Gold, Copper and China. All three have huge impacts on this currency pair. Gold is under pressure because as a hedge against inflation, there is zero inflation to worry about so it is overpriced. It tested critical $1180.00 support over the holidays and bounced but it will re-test again. A break lower will take the AUD/USD with it. <span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">These factors make my 0.8000 target in 2014 look pretty tame.</span>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">NZD/USD:</span></b>\r\n\r\nContrary to the AUD, the RBNZ Governor Wheeler “the dealer” wants to raise rates and send the NZD higher in 2014 to control bubbles in the New Zealand economy. I can feel a cross-rate sermon coming on again. The AUD/NZD will be a focus for me in 2014, given that the RBA and RBNZ are on different paths.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/NZDUSD-M-04012014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-2461\" alt=\"NZDUSD M 04012014\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/NZDUSD-M-04012014-1024x516.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"516\" /></a>\r\n\r\nLooking at the chart above and taking into considering equities, Gold, Copper and China. Common sense tells me that this pair should follow the AUD/USD lower, but I am 100% convinced. The cross-rate effect on the AUD/NZD could keep this pair well supported and inflated, add to this the RBNZ desire to raise rates and this pair could stay in the lofty heights of 0.7800 to 0.8800 for the year.\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">My NZD/USD prediction: -</span></b>\r\n\r\nThis is hard to write as for most of 2013 I have been trying to short this pair almost continually. This year for reasons already stated (RBA determination and the AUD/NZD cross-rate effect) I believe this pair will be the surprise and stay above 0.7800. I see a test of all-time highs being on the cards if the RBA forces the AUD lower and directly intervenes. Do not rule that out.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">USD/JPY:</span></b>\r\n\r\nIt is very easy to say 110.00 and maybe 120.00 is the target for this pair in 2014. Given the reputations and testicles on the chopping block, plus the amount of YEN being thrown at the markets an exchange rate of 120.00 seems achievable in the long term. The BOJ has committed considerably more funds than BEN at his best at the FED ever did.  It would therefore be brave nay foolish to stand in front of the USD/JPY freight train whilst the currency pair weakens to places not seen for years. Having written this, I think in true forex style we need to back test a breakout first before heading higher to the dizzy heights where the air is thin!!\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/USDJPY-M-04012014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-2465\" alt=\"USDJPY M 04012014\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/USDJPY-M-04012014-1024x516.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"516\" /></a>\r\n\r\nThe monthly chart above shows the move from the highs of 124.23-pre financial crisis to the lows of 75.47-post financial crisis.\r\n\r\nA test of the 61.8% retracement seems to be on the cards at 105.59. This will be huge resistance.\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">My USD/JPY prediction: -</span></b>\r\n\r\nBreakouts are nearly almost always re-tested for validity. I believe that the USD/JPY will re-test lower than 100.00, probably 98.00 which was a major psychological number on the way higher and lower with this pair. After a test of 98.00 we head higher (Yen weakness). Equities will play their part taking this pair lower.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">USD/CHF:</span></b>\r\n\r\nBasically, we have been held by 0.8750 for the past two years and we recently re-tested this low to bounce off it. If my Eurozone issues are predicted correctly I see this pair heading higher once again. This pair is one of my long, long, longer term trades for 2014, and I am looking to buy on a dip very soon.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/USDCHF-M-04012014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-2464\" alt=\"USDCHF M 04012014\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/USDCHF-M-04012014-1024x516.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"516\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">My USD/CHF prediction: -</span></b>\r\n\r\nIf the EUR/USD falls as predicted this pair will test parity in 2014. A break through resistance at 0.9415 will give my prediction the weight it needs to push onwards and upwards.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">USD/CAD:</span></b>\r\n\r\nThis is the most stubborn pain in the ass currency pair in the market, for me to follow anyway. I do however see that this pair should stay above parity in 2014. I think that we move higher as equities fall and then as equities stabilize later in 2014 we will pullback a little.\r\nThe monthly chart below shows that we are in an uptrend off the lows of 0.9640, to me I see this pattern continuing as we re-test higher levels.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/USDCAD-M-04012014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-2463\" alt=\"USDCAD M 04012014\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/USDCAD-M-04012014-1024x516.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"516\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">My USD/CAD prediction: -</span></b>\r\n\r\nThere may be a re-test of the bullish trend line on the chart above but I do feel overall that we will be re-testing the 50% and maybe even the 61.8% Fibonacci levels of 1.1200 and 1.1665.\r\n\r\n<b style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">3. MY KEY FOCUS IN 2014:</span></b>\r\n\r\nYou would have noticed in the later blogs of 2013 my trading style and emphasis on what to trade took on a new direction.\r\n\r\nThe main reason for this was due to disconnects in the marketplace. Fundamentals count, but so do inter-market relationships/correlations. There were so many disconnects in 2013, I had to adjust my way of thinking and trading. I see this continuing in 2014 as well as this has been reflected already in the way I view the moves in the USD majors. There is a knock-on effect and this is my key focus this year.\r\n\r\nThe lack of momentum and direction in the USD majors, in particular, since the summer last year, required me to focus on a different style of trading. The push and pull moves for no reason, were frankly just annoying me, and, news events or poor news sound-bytes were causing wild swings in the major pairs that were just crazy and on many occasions based on nothing concrete, or remotely resembling factual data.\r\n\r\nThis prompted the introduction of pull-back strategy trades I called FLASH TRADES, and, a more disciplined approach to longer-term trades that I defined as RADAR TRADES.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>RADAR TRADES: These are pre-meditated limit order trades. I hope that these will be longer-term trades.</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>FLASH TRADES: These are more of an intra-day trade. They may develop into “Swing style” trades but will probably be more short term.</strong><strong> </strong></p>\r\nAt the same time, I started to look more and more at cross-rate pairs and exotic crosses. These were largely successful from September 2013. This focus will continue in 2014. I will still trade the majors, but I think more from a FLASH TRADE perspective. My initial focus in 2014 will be to look at the cross-rates. My primary reason for this is that since 2008 these pairs have largely been directionally lower as equities have risen to all time highs. When equities roll over “The unwinding will begin”. With the commodity currencies it has already started and there are 1,000’s of pips still available. We will be unwinding 5 and 6 years of moves.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Be prepared for many trades in the following pairs in 2014: -</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"> EUR/AUD\r\nGBP/AUD\r\nEUR/NZD\r\nGBP/NZD\r\nEUR/CAD\r\nGBP/CAD</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">Plus the\r\nAUD/NZD\r\nEUR/GBP\r\nAUD/CHF\r\n<span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">NZD/CHF</span></p>\r\nThe moves can be wild in most of these pairs as they are not well-funded but they can be very directional with risk off or risk on conditions and offer good returns. The key is to take smaller positions with wider stops to cope with the volatility. A point to note is that these pairs can be very costly overnight carry trades. To trade these we will have to be clever, at the same time I will be assessing risk prior to entries to ensure minimum risk maximum profitability ratios.\r\n\r\nTrading these pairs is all about a trading discipline\r\n\r\nLook my trading style - it’s simple: -\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>FUNDAMENTALS MATTER TO ME</i></strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>I TRADE TO MAKE MONEY…NOT TO PICK TOPS OR BOTTOMS</i></strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>I TRADE LOW RISK</i></strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>I DO NOT CHASE MARKETS</i></strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>I LIKE THE TRADES TO COME TO ME</i></strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>I AM NOT A GREEDY TRADER</i></strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>I LIKE TO TRADE MOMENTUMS IN THE DIRECTION OF TRENDS</i></strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>I USE FIBONACCI LEVELS TO ENTER &amp; EXIT ON MANY TRADES</i></strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>PLUS...</i></strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>MY TRADING STYLE IS MIXED EVEN WITH THE ABOVE KEY BASICS</i></strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><i>I USE THE PULLBACK STRATEGY TO ENTER AND I LIKE SWING AND LONGER-TERM TRADES (WHEN POSSIBLE)</i></strong></p>\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">4. MAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:</span></b>\r\n\r\nSUNDAY: N/A\r\n\r\nMONDAY: USD – ISM Non- Manufacturing PMi.\r\nMONDAY: AUD – Trade Balance.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: CAD – Trade Balance\r\nTUESDAY: USD – Trade Balance\r\nTUESDAY: CNY – CPi, GDP and Trade Balance.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – ADP Non- Farm Employment change and FOMC minutes.\r\nWEDNESDAY: AUD – Retail Sales.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: GBP – Interest Rates\r\nTHURSDAY: EUR – Interest Rates and ECB Press Conference.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: CAD – Employment rates/changes\r\nFRIDAY: USD – Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Rates.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">5. THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</span></b>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU</span></b><b>\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">PREMIUM SERVICE  2014 </span></b>\r\n\r\nI am still working with my software developer to have this addition to the WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU ready within the next two weeks. My intention is to launch the PREMIUM SERVICE subscription service as soon as the markets revert back to normal liquidity.\r\n\r\nWe have noticed however that a number people have tried to register already., For anyone who has tried to register their details were deleted by the system under beta testing and even if you believe that you have an existing login or username that is not the case. As soon as I write announcing that the PREMIUM SERVICE is ready, sorry, but you will have to register again.\r\n\r\nFor those new readers below I detail the salient points regarding the premium service: -\r\n\r\nAs soon as the PREMIUM SERVICE is launched THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU in its current format will change. It will remain a weekly blog post although it will be more concise in length.\r\n\r\nMy “RADAR and FLASH TRADES” will now only be available via the Premium Service. In addition, “TRADE IDEAS &amp; SET UPS” that are tweeted will now only be available to Premium Service subscribers by email and in addition they can be viewed inside the secure section of my website.\r\n\r\nBelow as examples of the RADAR and FLASH TRADES excel spreadsheets I show the monthly statements for December 2013. (These were real trades that were tweeted or posted in this blog).\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/RADAR-TRADES-21122013.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-2379\" alt=\"RADAR TRADES 21122013\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/RADAR-TRADES-21122013.png\" width=\"455\" height=\"460\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/FLASH-TRADES-21122013.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-2378\" alt=\"FLASH TRADES 21122013\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/FLASH-TRADES-21122013.png\" width=\"411\" height=\"437\" /></a>\r\n\r\nIn 2013, feedback from subscribers to the “Drive-Thru”, or from readers of the blog via Google+, LinkedIn or Twitter have been raising many questions about Forex Trading in general, such as: -\r\n\r\n</p><p align=\"center\"><b> </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Placing Stops</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Strategies on entry and exit</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Working with a Trade Plan</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>What is a Trade Plan?</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Risk Assessment</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>When to fade trades</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>How to cost average effectively</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>How to use Trade Zones effectively - Buy Zones and Sell zones</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Working with Fibonacci levels</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>How to find a good broker to partner with</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Chart analysis</b></p>\r\nInside the secure area of my website, you will be able to reference information on all of the above topics plus much more. The library of information will grow during 2014 and my goal is to provide a comprehensive support area to traders of all experience levels. The PREMIUM SERVICE in its secure area will be a learning and reference area to subscribers.\r\n\r\nI am also looking to offer training and information based “Webinars” to Premium Service subscription members, if I have sufficient participants. These will be fee based to cover costs.\r\n\r\nWhilst upon first look, it may appear that the Premium Service is directed solely at new traders, or those with intermediate skill levels, please note this is not my intention. Trading can be lonely, and sometimes it is good to feel that you are part of a team. With this in mind, I am thinking that a “Chat Room” style area would be of benefit to all traders to share ideas and trade set-ups. Plus, whether a new trader or experienced trader it is always good to have a library of information available close at hand.\r\n\r\nWhat are the costs of membership?\r\n\r\nThere will be 40 weekly blogs / issues per year (I will not write in the Summer and over Christmas periods), with an unlimited amount of follow ups during the week to review and act upon “Radar Trades” and issues emanating from previous blogs. In addition trade ideas for trades already in play would also be part of the service, as I will be trading the posted set-ups.\r\n\r\nI do not want to become a finance administrator on a daily basis so I want to keep the subscription options as few as possible.\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>ANNUAL (40 WEEK) SUBSCRIPTION: $750.00 (this equates to $18.75 per week) </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>20 WEEKS SUBSCRIPTION: $450.00 (this equates to $22.50 per week) </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>10 WEEKS SUBSCRIPTION: $250.00 (this equates to $25.00 per week) </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>(ALL FEES ARE IN USD)</b></p>\r\nShould you have any questions regarding the PREMIUM SERVICE please email me at premiumservice@thepipaccumulator.com\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">9. FINAL THOUGHTS:</span></b>\r\n\r\nIt is a busy week for my first week back in the saddle.\r\n\r\nWe should see liquidity come back to the market this week and currency moves should be more sustainable.\r\n\r\nI will be posting RADAR and FLASH trade set ups via twitter as the week progresses and they will be performance measured via spreadsheets in next week blog.\r\n\r\nUntil we reach full liquidity if you are going to trade keep the positions smaller.\r\n\r\nGood luck,\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nSaturday January 4<sup>th</sup> 2014\r\n\r\nEMAIL / FOLLOW ME AT:\r\n<a href=\"mailto:drivethru@thepipaccumulator.com\">drivethru@thepipaccumulator.com\r\n</a>Twitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n<span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">Google+/scottpickering\r\n</span><span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">StockTwits; thepipaccumulator</span>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','MY TRADE IDEAS AND THOUGHTS LOOKING FORWARD AT 2014','','inherit','open','closed','','2456-revision-v1','','','2014-01-20 12:59:06','2014-01-20 17:59:06','',2456,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/2456-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(2382,1,'2013-12-21 13:19:51','2013-12-21 18:19:51','21.12.2013\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">1. INTRODUCTION:</span></b>\r\n\r\nWell…at least you can say that I am consistent.\r\n\r\nThe last two big FED / FOMC announcements I got wrong. My predictions were incorrect on both occasions.\r\n\r\nThe one consistent that can be taken from my poor predictions is that on both occasions, I had a plan, and if the plan did not kick in I did not chase the market, and so, I am at the very least disciplined with my approach. Not so good at predicting the news but a great example of “have a plan and trade your plan”.\r\n\r\n2013, is now 100% over for my trading. I took three FLASH TRADES after the FOMC and stayed with them for over 24 hours but closed them yesterday (Friday) as I do not want risk exposure over the holidays. The one consistent with trading forex is that there is always the next day to look forward to. Unless you are totally insane and rush in, there are always trade opportunities each day, and it’s all about figuring out the best ones for you as a trader to look at more deeply.\r\n\r\nI should mention the PREMIUM SERVICE at this point. I am busily getting the software and posting formats ready and you may have noticed a few test posts in your inbox.\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">2. TRADE SUMMARY – DECEMBER 2013:</span></b>\r\n\r\nThis will be a section in the new PREMIUM SERVICE where I will review good and bad trades.\r\n\r\nI have included below, two excel spread sheets for both types of trading styles that can be followed through the PREMIUM SERVICE next year on it’s live launch.\r\n\r\nRADAR TRADES: These are pre-meditated limit order trades. I hope that these will be longer-term trades.\r\n\r\nFLASH TRADES: These are more of an intra-day trade. They may develop into “Swing style” trades but will probably be more short term.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/RADAR-TRADES-21122013.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-2379\" alt=\"RADAR TRADES 21122013\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/RADAR-TRADES-21122013.png\" width=\"455\" height=\"460\" /></a><b></b></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">PROFITS FROM SINGLE LOT COMPLETED RADAR TRADES:</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x MICRO-LOT:\r\n14 trades at $0.10 cents each = $1.40 cents risk for a $60.80 reward.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x MINI-LOT:\r\n<span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">14 trades at $1.00 each = $14.00 risk for a $608.00 reward.</span></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x STANDARD LOT:\r\n14 trades at $10.00 each = $140.00 risk for a $6,080.00 reward.</p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/FLASH-TRADES-21122013.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-2378\" alt=\"FLASH TRADES 21122013\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/FLASH-TRADES-21122013.png\" width=\"411\" height=\"437\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">PROFITS FROM SINGLE LOT COMPLETED FLASH TRADES:</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x MICRO-LOT:\r\n3 trades at $0.10 cents each = $0.30 cents risk for a $12.40 reward.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x MINI-LOT:\r\n3 trades at $1.00 each = $3.00 risk for $124.00 reward</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x STANDARD LOT:\r\n3 trades at $10.00 each = $30.00 risk for a $1,240.00 reward</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">COMBINED FLASH AND RADAR TRADES PROFIT PERFORMANCE\r\n</span></b><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">DECEMBER 2013</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">TRADING MICRO-LOTS:\r\n17 trades at $0.10 cents each = $1.70 risk for a $73.20 reward.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">TRADING MINI-LOTS:\r\n17 trades at $1.00 each = $17.00 risk for a $732.00 reward.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">TRADING STANDARD LOTS:\r\n17 trades at $10.00 each = $170.00 risk for a $7,320.00 reward.</p>\r\nThe charts above detail the RADAR and FLASH TRADES that were posted in this blog and tweeted live via twitter.com/@pipaccumulator this month.\r\n\r\nOnce the PREMIUM SERVICE is launched RADAR and FLASH TRADES will only be posted direct via email to PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers and in addition they will be posted in the secure section of the Weekly Fx Drive-Thru. This section will eventually contain a whole host of goodies for traders who are subscribers to the new PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\nI am hoping to start 2014 with the same trading success as we displayed at the end of 2013. This year, was on reflection quite a good year. More ups than downs as the historic blogs will confirm. During the year I adapted my trading style and it is now paying real dividends, long may it continue.\r\n\r\nIt is no big secret….. It’s all about discipline.\r\n\r\nLook my trading style -  it’s simple: -\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<p align=\"center\">FUNDAMENTALS MATTER TO ME</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">I TRADE TO MAKE MONEY…NOT TO PICK TOPS OR BOTTOMS</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">I TRADE LOW RISK</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">I DO NOT CHASE MARKETS</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">I LIKE THE TRADES TO COME TO ME</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">I AM NOT A GREEDY TRADER</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">I LIKE TO TRADE MOMENTUMS IN THE DIRECTION OF TRENDS</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">I USE FIBONACCI LEVELS TO ENTER &amp; EXIT ON MANY TRADES</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">PLUS</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">MY TRADING STYLE IS MIXED EVEN WITH THE ABOVE KEY BASICS</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">I USE THE PULLBACK STRATEGY TO ENTER AND I LIKE SWING AND LONGER-TERM TRADES (WHEN POSSIBLE)</p>\r\nDetails of my new PREMIUM SERVICE that gives you the option to follow the FLASH and RADAR TRADES, amongst other things, follows later in this blog.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">3. THE VIEW FROM MY TRADING DESK:</span></b><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">BEN DID IT AGAIN…NOW LET’S LOOK FORWARD INTO 2014</span></b></p>\r\nNot only did the most powerful man on this planet surprise most people once again at the FOMC when he started “Tapering”, he managed to get a rally in worldwide equities and pacify emerging markets all at the same time.\r\n\r\nThe man is a God.\r\n<p align=\"center\"><i>He is going to be in Las Vegas soon after retirement, in front of the Bellagio turning the famous water fountains into wine…could you just imagine that…</i></p>\r\n So what is ahead for us to look forward to as traders given the news?\r\n\r\nIn the New Year, it will become apparent to the markets as they absorb all the news that a major policy shift from the FED is now in play. I see USD strength as a result.\r\n\r\nMy focus early 2014 will be to maximize this news event and policy shift.\r\n\r\nThe Eurozone is still in the crapper and as a result I think that this will place pressure on the single currency and help USD strength.\r\n\r\nI predict that Gold will suffer early on in 2014 and continue to fall as the markets suddenly get on board with the fact that we are in DEFLATIONARY times…NOT DIS-INFLATION call it what it is. Gold will pull further back as a result. Critical support lies just below $800.00\r\n\r\nEquities is the tough one for me to predict, and my predictions, in particular with the FED show a poor success rate.  One would argue that a pullback is long overdue. We have another U.S. government close down threat on the horizon for  February 2014. Equities are priced high and major U.S. corporations have been playing with balance sheets to show bottom line growth but sales are NOT always there. This can only last so long. But the economic data out of the U.S. has of late been really good.\r\n\r\nDare I use the words “Common Sense?”\r\n\r\nBut, common sense would say a pullback is due in the first quarter given global concerns as the U.S. leads the way out of QE (Quantitative Easing). This would help the commodity currencies lower and additionally fuel USD strength\r\n\r\nSo for the first quarter of 2014, I am in the “King Dollar” camp. My trade set-ups will be slanted accordingly\r\n\r\nBut my big trade set ups and there are four in total, will be saved for the PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers next year.\r\n\r\nI will probably post a blog around what I think will happen in 2014 to start off the New Year. Next year I will use this blog as a template to see how many predictions come true and gauge success.\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b>\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">4. MY CURRENT LIVE TRADES:</span></b>\r\n\r\nI have no live trades at the moment.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">5. TRADES THAT ARE ON MY RADAR:</span></b>\r\n\r\nNo trades…just Christmas and sorting out the PREMIUM SERVICE software.<b></b>\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b>\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">6. LOOKING FORWARD…THE KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS:</span></b>\r\n\r\n<b>HOLIDAY TRADING OVERVIEW:</b> In thin trading market conditions, which are what we are now a part of, the currency pairs just tend to grind very slowly in the same direction.  Small reversals are seen from time to time but usually nothing major. My suggestion is do not trade. Stay in $$$$, watch a few movies on TV.<b> </b>\r\n\r\n<b>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3670.</b>  Not much of a move over the week when you consider it was an FOMC week.  We are stuck in a range with this pair 1.3600 to 1.3710-1.3750. The question is will this pair really get its skates on prior to next year and breakout in direction over the other.\r\n\r\n<b>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.6326. </b>Virtually unchanged in the week for the second week in a row. This is telling me that we could be either consolidating the recent uptrend to move higher in the New Year, or, we are tired at these heights and about to head lower. My thought process is that with excellent economic data from the UK of late we could be itching to move higher. One of my interesting trades for the New Year is the EUR/GBP. I think this will have a major effect on cable. My gut tells me higher supported GBP/USD towards 1.7000. Mark Carney (Governor of The Bank of England) has his work cut out here to keep currency expectations limited so as not to screw up the recent run of good data.\r\n\r\nWe are in a range from 1.6250 to 1.6475 in my view, trade the range if you feel you have to. Personally, I would wait.\r\n\r\n<b>AUD/USD: Closing Price 0.8906</b>. The downside move re-starts. We are heading to at least 0.8500 in the coming weeks / months. Do not fight the RBA. Unless this pair rallies above 0.9000, for me it is bearish. If we rally to 0.9000 treat it like a Christmas present to enter short. The next level of support is 0.8840.\r\n\r\n<b>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8190</b>. The AUD/NZD still has a major role to play with the behavior of this currency pair into the coming year. We have resumed our downtrend by breaking short of our wedge pattern on the daily chart. I see a range of 0.8100 to 0.8260. If we break below 0.8100 I think then I feel more comfortable that we have had a shift in sentiment.\r\n\r\n<b>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.0634.  </b>No change in the week and we are now steady above 1.0600. The range is very simple 1.0600 to 1.0700\r\n\r\n<b>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.8954</b>.  A break above 0.9000 would place the bulls back in control of this pair. I see no point trading this pair unless you can pick it up long around 0.8850. Personally, I would not risk a short trade.\r\n\r\n<b>USD/JPY: Closing Price 104.03. </b> My comments are the same from last week<i> </i>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><i>“I am not trading this pair at the moment. I am convinced that it’s going to move</i> <i>substantially higher then it drops”.</i></p>\r\nNothing has changed I think that the Fibonacci extension of 105.45 looks to be a magnet, or tractor beam at the moment for JPY traders. This may be a great level to fade back to 102.50-103.00\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">7. MAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:</span></b>\r\n\r\nSUNDAY: N/A\r\n\r\nMONDAY: CAD – GDP\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: N/A\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: N/A\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: N/A\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: N/A\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">8. THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</span></b>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU</span></b><b>\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">PREMIUM SERVICE  2014 </span></b>\r\n\r\nNext year I am looking to introduce a “Premium Service” for those who want it.\r\n\r\nThe “Drive-Thru” in its current format will remain a weekly blog post although it will be a lot shorter. There will be one major exception in its current format  “RADAR TRADES” will now only be available via the Premium Service. In addition, “TRADE IDEAS &amp; SET UPS” that are tweeted will now only be available to Premium Service subscribers by email and in addition they can be viewed inside the secure section of the Weekly Fx Drive-Thru.\r\n\r\nThere will lots of posts to the PREMIUM SERVICE section of the Weekly Fx Drive-Thru and in addition, I will also be introducing “FLASH TRADES” these will be up to the minute as they happen trades.\r\n\r\nOver the past several months, feedback from subscribers to the “Drive-Thru”, or from readers of the blog via Google+, LinkedIn or Twitter have been raising many questions about Forex Trading in general, such as: -<b> </b>\r\n\r\n</p><p align=\"center\"><b>Placing Stops</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Strategies on entry and exit</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Working with a Trade Plan</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>What is a Trade Plan?</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Risk Assessment</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>When to fade trades</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>How to cost average effectively</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>How to use Trade Zones effectively - Buy Zones and Sell zones</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Working with Fibonacci levels</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>How to find a good broker to partner with</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Chart analysis</b></p>\r\nThe list is quite extensive, however, it refers only to all the recent questions that I have answered.\r\n\r\nTo have a learning centre available and to look at the trades that are on my radar at the same time seemed to be a very good fit as a trading philosophy…hence the Premium Service.\r\n\r\nI am also looking to offer training and information based “Webinars” to Premium Service subscription members, if I have sufficient participants. These will be fee based to cover costs.\r\n\r\nWhilst upon first look, it may appear that the Premium Service is directed solely at new traders, or those with intermediate skill levels, please note this is not my intention. Trading can be lonely, and sometimes it is good to feel that you are part of a team. With this in mind, I am thinking that a “Chat Room” style area would be of benefit to all traders to share ideas and trade set-ups. Plus, whether a new trader or experienced trader it is always good to have a library of information available close at hand.\r\n\r\nThe Weekly Fx-Drive-Thru will remain, and will continue to be posted weekly on Saturday’s although it will be a shorter version.\r\n\r\nThe Midweek Fx Fix will cease immediately and in 2014 the Premium Service will be available to those who want to take advantage. The training and background support material will be added on a regular basis to grow into a library of effective Fx trading tools\r\n\r\nWhat are the costs?\r\n\r\nMy initial thoughts are as follows: -\r\n\r\nThere will be 40 weekly blogs / issues per year (I will not write in the Summer and over Christmas periods), with an unlimited amount of follow ups during the week to review and act upon “Radar Trades” and issues emanating from previous blogs. In addition trade ideas for trades already in play would also be part of the service, as I will be trading my own trade recommendations.\r\n\r\nI do not want to become a finance administrator on a daily basis so I want to keep the subscription options as few as possible.\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>ANNUAL (40 WEEK) SUBSCRIPTION: $750.00 (this equates to $18.75 per week) </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>20 WEEKS SUBSCRIPTION: $450.00 (this equates to $22.50 per week) </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>10 WEEKS SUBSCRIPTION: $250.00 (this equates to $25.00 per week) </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>(ALL FEES ARE IN USD)</b></p>\r\nI would like to get your feedback to this proposal.\r\n\r\nIf you have the time please respond to me at <a href=\"mailto:scott@pickering.bz\">premiumservice@thepipaccumulator.com</a> with your thoughts on the “Premium Service” and whether you think that this is something you would sign up for and take advantage of.\r\n\r\nThank you to those who have already given feedback, it is much appreciated.\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b>\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">9. FINAL THOUGHTS:</span></b>\r\n\r\nThe next Weekly Fx Drive-Thru in this format will be posted on Saturday 4<sup>th</sup> January 2014.\r\n\r\nIn the interim, I will be posting some teasers regarding the PREMIUM SERVICE to the social networks and to existing email subscribers of this blog, so that you can see what is coming early next year.\r\n\r\nI am hoping to have the launch email ready to go very soon so that the start date can be confirmed, and so that those interested can subscribe and take a look at the secure area and become familiar with the layout.\r\n\r\nAs I am NOT trading until 2014, it just remains for me to wish you a HAPPY CHRISTMAS or HAPPY HOLIDAYS depending upon your persuasion etc.\r\n\r\nSee you next year….hopefully.\r\n\r\nFinally….. if you to trade between now and 2014. Take small positions.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nSaturday December 21st 2013\r\n\r\nEMAIL / FOLLOW ME AT:\r\n<a href=\"mailto:drivethru@thepipaccumulator.com\">drivethru@thepipaccumulator.com\r\n</a>Twitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n<span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">Google+/scottpickering\r\n</span><span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">StockTwits; thepipaccumulator</span>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','BEN DID IT AGAIN…NOW LET’S LOOK FORWARD INTO 2014','','publish','open','closed','','ben-againnow-lets-look-forward-2014','','','2014-01-20 13:01:23','2014-01-20 18:01:23','',0,'http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/?p=2382',0,'post','',0),(2251,1,'2013-12-18 08:55:52','2013-12-18 13:55:52','18.12.2013\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>1. INTRODUCTION:</strong></span>\n\nIt is a huge news event later today so I wanted to place my thoughts on paper.\n\nMy gut feeling is that there will be NO TAPERING announced to day, but I do think that there will an announcement of when it will start and with this alone  it represents a huge change in FED monetary policy.\n\nThe initial response from the markets if my scenario plays out is that the USD will weaken. After the news hits home, the realization that TAPERING will start soon will then result in the USD strengthening. Basically, there will be a \"Knee Jerk\" reaction then a reality pill will be absorbed.\n\nMy \"FLASH\" trades below are based upon the reality pill being absorbed!\n\nFLASH TRADES are trades for which there is no limit order placed with my brokers but these are trades I want to enter if the entry prices detailed below are hit. I will tweet my entries as soon as possible after entering trades.\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>PLEASE NOTE: If no forward guidance on TAPERING is given I will NOT take these trades, except possibly the \"NO TAPERING\" long AUD/USD trade.</strong></span>\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>2. FLASH TRADE SET-UPS FOR USD MAJORS:</strong></span>\n\n<em>Any trades I enter based on the set-ups below will be small to establish initial positions. If the FED announces a major policy decision change today, this should set up USD strength for the foreseeable future and therefore this will allow us to build trades. Do not be too aggressive take your time and build a trade or two for the long haul.</em>\n\n<strong>EUR/USD:</strong> I think after the initial statement release we may see this pair rally above 1.3800 towards 1.3830. Basically, the higher the better. I want to short this pair above 1.3830. If the momentum move above 1.3800 is very strong I want it to let run the stops above 1.3830.  If it breaks 1.3950 heading to 1.4000 on a massive momentum move, which I strongly doubt, my whole fundamental view on the market has gone in the trash.\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>TARGET ENTRY SHORT: 1.3830-1.3850</strong></span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>GBP/USD</strong>:  Again, after the move up I am looking at as close to 1.6465 as possible to possibly short. I am NOT a major fan of this pair and after excellent Unemployment Data this morning, plus Carney\'s quote of low rates until middle 2015, I may just shy away from this pair.</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>TARGET ENTRY SHORT: 1.6450-1.6475</strong></span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>USD/CHF</strong>: This pair represents great value on a risk / reward basis if picked up around key support at 0.8840.</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>TARGET ENTRY LONG: 0.8830- 0.8850</strong></span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>USD/JPY:</strong> Not interested in this pair at all.</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>USD/CAD:</strong> Last night unfortunately it stated to come up from much lower levels. So this is a \"Buy the Dip\" trade. 1.0650 should hold it prior to FOMC and then an initial dip to buy and then we should be off much higher through 1.0700 if scenario plays out.</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>TARGET ENTRY LONG: 1.0580 - 1.0620</strong></span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>AUD/USD</strong>: Do not fight the RBA. I really want to get short this pair today. But it has to be on my price. If my scenario does not play out today and this pair rises though 0.9000 it looks on the daily chart that we could be in a triple bottom measured move to 0.9470 or thereabouts. A 500 pip or so move. Therefore we have a double option trade with this pair.</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>TARGET ENTRY SHORT: 0.9030-0.9060\n</strong><strong>IF NO TAPERING AND WE BREAK THROUGH 0.9000........possible triple bottom long trade in play to around 0.9500</strong></span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>NZD/USD</strong>: On the daily chart we are in wedge pattern that is getting tighter each day we move forward. The breakout levels are 0.8200 to 0.8280. These levels would be great for a normal day but after the \"Knee Jerk\" are the levels that I am interested in and today we could create a false breakout to the long side.</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>TARGET ENTRY SHORT: 0.8320-0.8350</strong></span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Just because I have listed levels across all the USD majors except the USD/JPY above, it does NOT mean that you should take or attempt top take ALL the trades. Pick just the pair or pairs that you are used to.</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">I will tweet all my entries as soon as I can and I will summarize my set-ups towards the end of the trading day. Please take it easy and be careful, as we are entering some very thin trading days, you will need wider stops to start with.</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Good Luck, if you decide to trade.</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Scott Pickering\nThe Pip Accumulator\nWednesday 18th December 2013</p>\nFOLLOW ME / EMAIL:\nscott@thepipaccumulator.com\nTwitter: @pipaccumulator\nStockTwits: #thepipaccumulator\nGoogle+ /scottpickering','MIDWEEK FX FIX (18.12.2013) - POST FOMC POSSIBLE FLASH TRADES ','','publish','open','closed','','midweek-fx-fix-pre-fomc-flash-trade-update','','','2013-12-18 08:55:52','2013-12-18 13:55:52','',0,'http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/?p=2251',0,'post','',0),(2234,1,'2013-12-14 12:03:12','2013-12-14 17:03:12','14.12.2013\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">1. INTRODUCTION:</span></b>\r\n\r\nMany of you may have read the undertones from last week’s blog, referring to my trading activity. I think that as soon as I see December on a calendar, like may people regardless of profession a certain mind set comes into play. As a trader I think “lower liquidity” “volatile moves for no reason”. Well, I have been there and done that, so they say, I’ve got the DVD and I am wearing the T-shirt as I write!\r\n\r\nLook my trading style is simple: -\r\n<p align=\"center\">FUNDAMENTALS MATTER TO ME</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">I TRADE TO MAKE MONEY…NOT TO PICK TOPS OR BOTTOMS</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">I TRADE LOW RISK</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">I DO NOT CHASE MARKETS</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">I LIKE THE TRADES TO COME TO ME</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">I LIKE TO MOMENTUM TRADE</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">I LIKE TO TRADE WITH DAILY, WEEKLY AND MONTHLY CHARTS SUPPORTING THE DIRECTION OF MY TRADE</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">I USE FIBONACCI LEVELS TO ENTER &amp; EXIT ON MANY TRADES</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">PLUS</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">MY TRADING STYLE IS MIXED EVEN WITH THE ABOVE CRITERIA</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">I USE THE PULLBACK STRATEGY TO ENTER TRADES AND I LIKE SWING AND LONGER-TERM TRADES (WHEN POSSIBLE)</p>\r\nDuring the past 7 days as I wind down for the end of the year, I have only traded 3 new RADAR TRADES. I had two existing trades that were held over from last weekend which were closed early last week. In total  I added over 250 pips to the RADAR TRADES for December 2013 in the past 7 days. This totals over 600 pips so far for December, and the month has not ended yet. All this and I am winding down. It’s not easy, but it’s all done with low risk, in my view.\r\n\r\nThe chart below details the RADAR TRADES that were posted in this blog and tweeted live via twitter.com/@pipaccumulator this month.\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/DEC-2013-RADAR-TRADES14122013-BLOG.jpg\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-2237\" alt=\"DEC 2013 RADAR TRADES14122013 BLOG\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/DEC-2013-RADAR-TRADES14122013-BLOG.jpg\" width=\"391\" height=\"388\" /></a></span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">POTENTIAL PROFITS FROM SINGLE LOT COMPLETED TRADES:</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x MICRO-LOT:\r\n13 trades at $0.10 cents each = $1.30 cents risk for a $60.80 reward.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x MINI-LOT:\r\n13 trades at $1.00 each = $13.00 risk for a $608.00 reward.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x STANDARD LOT:\r\n13 trades at $10.00 each = $130.00 risk for a $6,080.00 reward.</p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nI am launching very, very soon the PREMIUM SERVICE. This will bring a host of new tools to enable better trading…more consistently.\r\n\r\nDetails of my new PREMIUM SERVICE that gives you the option to follow the RADAR TRADES, amongst other things, follows later in this blog.<b></b><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">\r\n</span></b>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">2.    RBA BANK GOVERNOR STEVENS LAYS IT OUT PURE AND SIMPLE FOR THE MARKETS…AND I HAVE MY PLAN</span></b>\r\n\r\nHere is a direct quote from last week’s blog. It was from Section 2, when I was writing about adapting to longer-term trading as the market\'s reaction to news has changed.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><b><i>“Let me use RBA Stevens as my example. He has stated personally, and the RBA statements have read for the past three / four months maybe even longer, that the AUD is over-priced. They targeted in a published report months and months ago that 0.8500- 0.8800 was the goal for the AUD/USD exchange rate. To say this 5/6 years ago was enough to strike fear in the markets and the AUD/USD would be at its guide price by now. In 2013, you need QE (Quantitative Easing policies), direct intervention in the money markets and talk of negative rates to be believed these days”.</i></b><b><i> </i></b></p>\r\nWhat did Stevens do last Thursday?\r\n\r\nHe re-iterated it all again and this time actually said 0.9500 as the AUD/USD is too high...I think 0.8500 is more where it should be. There was great sell-off and now we are trying to consolidate positions\r\n\r\nFrom my perspective as a fundamental trader here is what goes through my mind: -\r\n<p align=\"center\"><i>The AUD/USD come hell or high water is moving lower.</i></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><i>Do not trade against a Central Bank.</i></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><i>Wait for the FOMC first to announce \'tapering or not\' this week to look for entries.</i></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><i>Look for a good pullback in the AUD/USD to get short.</i></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><i>Check charts of the EUR/AUD, GBP/AUD and AUD/NZD to get familiar with pricing.</i><i> </i></p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAt any other time of the year, I would have established positions already based on the RBA statement from governor Stevens. Right now, Ben and the FED announcement via the FOMC this Wednesday trumps all news for me and I will wait.\r\n\r\nMy reason, the 200 pips or so in the AUD/USD are not the big factor here. The unwinding of the cross-rates EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD is much, much bigger. There are thousands of potential pips available with these pairs alone. Plus how will the NZD react in a week or two, better still early 2014?\r\n\r\nI may set up limit orders with my broker after the FOMC announcement. That depends on the news itself and the market reaction. I will tweet my intentions and reactions Wednesday afternoon.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">3. THE VIEW FROM MY TRADING DESK:</span></b><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">THE FINAL SCHEDULED BIG NEWS EVENT OF 2013 IS THE FOMC…WHAT AM I DOING, WHAT ARE THE OPTIONS?</span></b></p>\r\nIt is quite appropriate that given all the “Taper” - is it on?, or, is it off ? talk for most of the past three/four months, that this subject should be the focus for the last major news event of 2013.\r\n\r\nThe big question that I have is - “Is tapering as big news for the FED as it is for the TV news channels?”\r\n\r\nCNBC are once again at fever pitch, bringing in all and sundry to debate the point. It was odds on given that the “Santa Claus” rally has not materialized this year…yet. We  have to keep in mind that this process that we are entering has never been executed before. All the conjecture is just that, pure speculation. No one knows what will really happen.\r\n\r\nThe USD is strengthening a little ahead of Wednesday’s Press Conference, probably a result of all the taper talk people preparing. Could you imagine, if the FED did start tapering what would happen.\r\n\r\nMy initial thoughts are, firstly, should Ben taper, this represents the beginning of a change in U.S. monetary policy. Do not underestimate that fact. The USD index will rally hard, and, coupled with the fact we will be in thin trading times the move would be fast, long and hard for USD bears to cope with, they will be running for the hills. Just imagine, the volatility with little liquidity.\r\n\r\nMy gut tells me however, that there is little chance of any taper this week. I just cannot see it being implemented at the end of the year, even with an agreement in Washington over the U.S. Federal Budget in the wings.\r\n\r\nI think with this FOMC press conference it really is all up for grabs. From a trading perspective, the conservative approach would be to wait until the press release before deciding what if any trades to place. Trying to second-guess the news and the market reaction is dangerous. You certainly do not want to be the wrong side of a trade at the end of the year when there is little liquidity.\r\n\r\nThe simple response to the FED \'taper or no taper\', one would imagine would be;\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">“TAPER” – get long the USD and short the EUR/USD, GBP/USD etc.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">“NO-TAPER” – get short the USD and long the EUR/USD, GBP/USD etc.</p>\r\nWait for about 10 to 15 minutes after the news has broken before entering a trade. Make certain that the direction is sorted.\r\n\r\nRemember, there is a press conference to follow the prepared statement, and, whilst Ben should not say anything that was not in the released press statement he does have to answer questions from the journalists and TV stations that are invited to the press conference. There could be a stinger of a question, so beware and be on guard.\r\n\r\nIt all really depends on your trade style and your risk tolerance. I may not even trade the FOMC at all. I want to end 2013 on a big positive and enjoy the Christmas holidays. I hate these thin trading conditions and try my best to avoid them like the plague.\r\n\r\nI will tweet around the news and should I take on a flash trade I will tweet the information.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">4. MY CURRENT LIVE TRADES:</span></b>\r\n\r\nI have no live trades at the moment.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">5. TRADES THAT ARE ON MY RADAR:</span></b>\r\n\r\nAs I have stated several times, I am winding down for 2013 and as such given the fact that we have a major news release like the Fed FOMC statement and press conference on the horizon, I am not looking at anything right now.\r\n\r\nI may look at potential trades after the FOMC, should I do this I will tweet my thoughts.\r\n\r\nThe trading pairs that are at the back of mind are: -\r\n<p align=\"center\">EUR/CAD\r\nGBP/CAD\r\nEUR/AUD\r\nGBP/AUD\r\nAUD/USD\r\nAUD/NZD\r\nUSD/CHF</p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">6. LOOKING FORWARD…THE KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS:</span></b>\r\n\r\n<b>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3738.</b>  We finished the week higher than last week. At one stage in the past seven days I thought that this pair was about to run and test 1.4000. In fact we stalled just ahead of 1.3830 and this remains the upside resistance that needs to be taken for the bulls to have control. Obviously, the big FED FOMC news on the horizon will calm things down for a day or two. The range that interests me with this pair is 1.3630 to 1.3830. Trade within this range, buy dips if you must trade. Personally, I will be watching until after the FOMC.\r\n\r\n<b>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.6290.  </b>A little lower on the week. Many traders must be totally confused with the cable\'s actions. On the daily charts there is a double bottom in play with a measured move to 1.6600, we headed in that direction and then the wheels came off the bus, and we moved lower towards key support at 1.6250. This support level of 1.6250, if breached, places the USD bulls back in command. I would play 1.6250 to 1.6450 until either end is broken.\r\n\r\n<b>AUD/USD: Closing Price 0.8963</b>. Well RBA Governor Stevens told it as it is on Thursday morning EDT. The Aussie nose-dived and once again the market now knows where the RBA wants to see this pair trading in the future. That is around 0.8500. We closed yesterday at 0.8963, which is well over 100 pips lower in the last seven days. There are important levels ahead for this pair. Support at 0.8875 and resistance around 0.9150. These two levels should contain this pair ahead of the FOMC. There is not much to say about this pair except DO NOT TRADE AGAINST THE RBA. If the AUD/USD rises use it as an opportunity to enter short.\r\n\r\n<b>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.849</b>.  During the past seven days there has not been much movement with this pair. It is still very resilient and affected by the effects of the AUD/NZD cross-rate. I know that RBNZ Governor Wheeler, has stated many confusing facts of late and one of them is his desire to raise rates in New Zealand probably in the Spring of 2014...but he has also sent conflicting  messages to the markets. I just do not know what to think at times with this pair. We seem to be in the range of 0.8200 to 0.8340. It is difficult to call, so it may be best to leave this pair alone.\r\n\r\n<b>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.0582.  </b>Just not certain where this pair is going. Yesterday (Friday) I thought it was so bullish. Then it falls 75 pips to end the week below 1.0600. The range as I see it is 1.0540 to 1.0700.\r\n\r\n<b>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.8882</b>.  We ended the week pretty much sitting on a major support level of 0.8880. This has to be a good trade to pick up long if we see a stop run through this level. The only thing that is stopping me is the boring market and the FOMC. 0.8850 offers a great area to go long just below support, and resistance should be good now at the round number of 0.9000.\r\n\r\n<b>USD/JPY: Closing Price 103.16. </b> I am not touching this pair at the moment. Soooooooo many  institutions and traders are long the JPY looking for 105.00 - it\'s a bit scary. I am not certain what to do or what to suggest other than write down the support of 1.0260 and resistance of 103.40.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">7. MAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:</span></b>\r\n\r\nSUNDAY: CNY – HSBC Flash PMi\r\n\r\nMONDAY: EUR – French &amp; German Manufacturing PMi\r\nMONDAY: EUR – Draghi Speaks.\r\nMONDAY: AUD – RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: N/A\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: GBP – Unemployment rates.\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – FOMC Statement and Press Conference.\r\nWEDNESDAY: NZD – RBNZ GDP.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: JPY – BOJ Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: CAD – Core Retails Sales.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">8. THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</span></b>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU</span></b><b>\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">PREMIUM SERVICE  2014 </span></b>\r\n\r\nNext year I am looking to introduce a “Premium Service” for those who want it.\r\n\r\nThe “Drive-Thru” in its current format will remain a weekly blog post although it will be a lot shorter. There will be one major exception in its current format  “RADAR TRADES” will now only be available via the Premium Service. In addition, “Trade Ideas and Set-ups” that are tweeted will also only be available to Premium Service subscribers inside the secure section of the Weekly Fx Drive-Thru. There will be lots of posts to the PREMIUM SERVICE section of the Weekly Fx Drive-Thru and in addition, I will also be introducing “Flash Trades” - these will be up to the minute as they happen trades.\r\n\r\nOver the past several months, feedback from subscribers to the “Drive-Thru”, or from readers of the blog via Google+, LinkedIn or Twitter have been raising many questions about Forex Trading in general, such as: -<b> </b>\r\n\r\n</p><p align=\"center\"><b>Placing Stops</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Strategies on entry and exit</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Working with a Trade Plan</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>What is a Trade Plan?</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Risk Assessment</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>When to fade trades</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>How to cost average effectively</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>How to use Trade Zones effectively - Buy Zones and Sell zones</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Working with Fibonacci levels</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>How to find a good broker to partner with</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Chart analysis</b></p>\r\nThe list is quite extensive, however, it refers only to all the recent questions that I have answered.\r\n\r\nTo have a learning centre available and to look at the trades that are on my radar at the same time seemed to be a very good fit as a trading philosophy…hence the Premium Service.\r\n\r\nI am also looking to offer training and information based “Webinars” to Premium Service subscription members, if I have sufficient participants. These will be fee based to cover costs.\r\n\r\nWhilst upon first look, it may appear that the Premium Service is directed solely at new traders, or those with intermediate skill levels, please note this is not my intention. Trading can be lonely, and sometimes it is good to feel that you are part of a team. With this in mind, I am thinking that a “Chat Room” style area would be of benefit to all traders to share ideas and trade set-ups. Plus, whether a new trader or experienced trader, it is always good to have a library of information available close at hand.\r\n\r\nThe Weekly Fx-Drive-Thru will remain, and will continue to be posted weekly on Saturday’s although it will be a shorter version.\r\n\r\nThe Midweek Fx Fix will cease immediately and in 2014 the Premium Service will be available to those who want to take advantage. The training and background support material will be added on a regular basis to grow into a library of effective Fx trading tools.\r\n\r\nWhat are the costs?\r\n\r\nMy initial thoughts are as follows: -\r\n\r\nThere will be 40 weekly blogs / issues per year (I will not write in the Summer and over Christmas periods), with an unlimited amount of follow ups during the week to review and act upon “Radar Trades” and issues emanating from previous blogs. In addition trade ideas for trades already in play would also be part of the service, as I will be trading my own trade recommendations.\r\n\r\nI do not want to become a finance administrator on a daily basis so I want to keep the subscription options as few as possible.\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>ANNUAL (40 WEEK) SUBSCRIPTION: $750.00 (this equates to $18.75 per week) </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>20 WEEKS SUBSCRIPTION: $450.00 (this equates to $22.50 per week) </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>10 WEEKS SUBSCRIPTION: $250.00 (this equates to $25.00 per week) </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>(ALL FEES ARE IN USD)</b></p>\r\nI would like to get your feedback to this proposal.\r\n\r\nIf you have the time please respond to me at <a href=\"mailto:scott@pickering.bz\">premiumservice@thepipaccumulator.com</a> with your thoughts on the “Premium Service” and whether you think that this is something you would sign up for and take advantage of. I would like to Thank all of you who have already done so.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">9. FINAL THOUGHTS:</span></b>\r\n\r\nThere are several interesting bigger ticket news items this week; obviously the FOMC is the pick of the bunch. Personally, I think that this will be my final week of trading for 2013, so my positions, if any, will be small.\r\n\r\nWe are heading into ‘silly season” on thin trading volumes. Smaller and thinner trading volumes create wilder moves sometimes based on nothing. This can cost you money so be careful.\r\n\r\nAs always, trade smaller with wider stops to establish your position, only then do you add in, but it should be in line with your trading plan. Do not over-stretch yourself and let the trades come to you. Price your entries and establish your risk prior to taking a trade. This is a sound practice and it works.\r\n\r\nGood luck and take care.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nSaturday December 14th 2013\r\n\r\nEMAIL / FOLLOW ME AT:\r\n<a href=\"mailto:drivethru@thepipaccumulator.com\">drivethru@thepipaccumulator.com\r\n</a><a href=\"mailto:premiumservice@thepipaccumulator.com\">premiumservice@thepipaccumulator.com\r\n</a>Twitter: @pipaccumulator\r\nGoogle+/scottpickering\r\nStockTwits; thepipaccumulator\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','RBA STEVENS TELLS IT STRAIGHT BUT THE UPCOMING FOMC IS THE BIGGER NEWS ','','publish','open','closed','','winding-2013-just-fomc-left-year','','','2014-01-17 14:20:39','2014-01-17 19:20:39','',0,'http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/?p=2234',0,'post','',0);
