<h3 style="text-align: center;"><strong>THE PREMIUM SERVICE
</strong><strong>The Home of Single-Lot Trading
</strong><strong style="line-height: 1.5;">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</strong></h3>
<strong>DATE: 05.04.2015
</strong><strong style="line-height: 1.5;">REFERENCE: #147
</strong><strong>BLOG: THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU</strong>

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<ol>
	<li><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"> INTRODUCTION:</span></strong></li>
</ol>
<span style="text-decoration: underline;">MY OVERVIEW OF THE FOREX MARKET:
LOOKING BACKWARDS, FORWARDS &amp; SIDEWAYS AT THE FX MARKET:</span>

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<span style="text-decoration: underline;">1.1 - LOOKING BACKWARDS:</span>

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">NON-FARM PAYROLLS:</span>

126,000 was last Friday’s (Good Friday) growth in Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP).
It was the weakest number in 15 months.
Unemployment Rate held at 5.5%.

It does appear that U.S. jobs data maybe starting to play catch up with some recent economic data indicators.

One month’s data however disappointing does not indicate a pattern, it may raise a few questions but despite all the quotes and reports and commentary that we are going to hear and read about over the next few days, I think that it is 100% certain that the FED under Janet Yellen (so to speak) take a much larger time horizon that one month when establishing FED monetary policy. The data will be noted however.

My own view is that it is consumer spending which is more of a concern. Consumer spending = growth. There is bugger all consumer spending of a consistent nature pretty well worldwide. This is where the attentions of central banks should be more focused as far as I am concerned.

However, with DEFLATION still a serious risk in many western economies, one must remember that central banks have no weapon to beat DEFLATION. It is simply an economic factor that central banks with all their history on monetary policies etc. cannot defeat and history proves this fact.

In any event, any FED SPEAK coming up in the next 10-14 days should not, in my opinion, swerve away from the highly publicized party line on policy.

From a Forex perspective the weaker data has possibly given us as traders an opportunity to buy USD at better prices given that we were brushing close to some key support and resistance levels. Better buying and selling prices look to be in play.

A word of caution though, we had the job numbers released on a day when virtually no one was at work. We still have holidays around the world through Easter until the open on Monday evening in Asia. We will therefore not have a 100% market until then. The U.S. is back tomorrow (Monday) but Easter Monday is a holiday in most of the world. Bear this in mind when establishing positions. My fear is that until Tuesday (EDT) we will still be liable to squeezes and false moves both higher and lower, which will trap retail traders.

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<span style="text-decoration: underline;">GREECE:</span>

I am writing about the on-going saga later so I will reserve my comments until then.

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<span style="text-decoration: underline;">OIL – YEMEN – IRAN:</span>

It’s all about commodities and we are certainly seeing how much the OIL price is integral to world economics.

The Saudi’s military operation in Yemen would appear to growing with more Arab nations becoming part of an Arab coalition force. By all accounts this will not be a smash and grab mission.

The nuclear deal stuck with Iran, potentially has the effect to flood the OIL market with another million barrels of OIL. This will not be instant, it will be a gradual increase but overall one has to think that more OIL into a market that is already over supplied will only add more downside pressure on OIL prices.

Traders of the CAD, NOK and MXN take note.

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<span style="text-decoration: underline;">1.2 - LOOKING FORWARDS:</span>

The RBA is my major interest for this coming week. There are lots of rumours out there that the RBA will cut again this week. The recent fall in Iron Ore prices has placed pressure on the Australian economy.

We also have the release of the FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday. Given how, the market treated Janet Yellen’s press conference and the FOMC statement from meetings where these minutes originated, these should be seen as dovish once again. Nothing has fundamentally changed, but the market being as perverse as it is, will look for something that simply isn’t there. It is very frustrating as a trader but it is what it is. As I have said, nothing has changed and these minutes pre date all the recent data releases on the U.S. economy. I really do not know what to expect.

We have a lot of geopolitical news hanging around; GREECE, YEMEN, UK ELECTIONS to name but three areas that immediately come to mind. Bearing these in mind, it will not be an easy week to trade.

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<span style="text-decoration: underline;">1.3 - LOOKING SIDEWAYS (FOR GOOD MEASURE):</span>

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I still find trading conditions quite difficult. I seem to be moving forwards and then backwards to move forwards again. It is very, very frustrating.

I am hoping that USD weakness has given us the opportunity to trade from better entry levels moving forward. Central Bank divergence is still the order of the day and the FED will be raising rates this year. Despite all the comment, no one knows when; it is all speculation. The FED has to raise rates because they said they would and a back down would severely jeopardize future FED policy statements. Whether it is the right or wrong decision to raise rates who gives a feck. No one knows when the rate hike will come, but common sense says later than sooner this year given the fact it allows for U.S. economic data to turn around a little.

The PREMIUM SERVICE still moves forward in these sticky conditions, so I am obviously delighted. Like most traders, the PREMIUM SERVICE performance is different than last year. More trades and less income per trade, as trades are not kept “LIVE” as long. This is indicative of the “chop fest” market we find ourselves working within. I like thousands of retail traders out there want a break from the “chop fest”, I just cant see it for now unfortunately, sorry to disappoint.

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<ol start="2">
	<li><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"> WHAT’S ON MY MIND: -
THE FUNDAMENTAL TRADERS OVERVIEW:</span></strong></li>
</ol>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DOES MERKEL HAVE THE BALLS TO RISK A CONTAGION?</strong></p>
Here it is at last, the alleged crunch week in the history of GREECE versus the EUROGROUP.

I have read and listened to so much recently about the Greek situation of late, that, I must admit that I feel a little punch drunk.

As I understand it, the Greek government has to make the following payments: -

APRIL 9<sup>th </sup>- €458 million to the IMF.
APRIL 14<sup>th-</sup> Government salaries.
MAY 1<sup>st</sup> - €200 million.<sup>
</sup>MAY 12th - €763 million.

Even if the Greek government borrow money, they only see additional inflows this year of €6 billion from a clampdown on tax evasion and the like. I remember reading a while back that an un-named Greek government source stated that no matter what Athens needed a further €19-20 billion just to stand still.

We are down to the wire.

The numbers just do not stand up and this may be the week that sends the financial markets into a tailspin.

You read so much about how small Greece is with regards to the overall EUROZONE picture. Make no mistake a Greece default will be big news. I cannot imagine that any government wants to be in charge presiding over a default, but I feel that the Syriza party may be one of the few that does.

Are the printing presses running printing drachma once again?

Who knows, if they are, it is very closely guarded and very well kept secret. Look for clues like capital controls. If they are introduced, I fear we are down a road of no return.

I wrote last week about TRUST between GREECE and the EUROGROUP. There is no trust on either side and to a large extent if the TRIOKA bump up the cash to GREECE we are only kicking another can down the road.

The consensus of opinion looking at numerous reports is that Greek debt is around €323 billion, broken down as follows: -

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/GREEK-DEBT-BREAKDOWN-05042015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-5678" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/GREEK-DEBT-BREAKDOWN-05042015.png" alt="GREEK DEBT BREAKDOWN 05042015" width="289" height="434" /></a>

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I have written before that GREECE needs debt relief and even though this means that other countries inside the EUROZONE that have received bailouts before should also be reimbursed, if Germany wants a EUROPEAN UNION through thick and thin it needs to dig deep and do the right thing.

The Germans forcing austerity down the throat of an economy that simply wasn't ready or able to cope with austerity is partly to blame for the present situation that Greece finds itself in. My thoughts here though, are that it would be potentially political suicide for Angela Merkel, if she bails Greece out. Merkel is caught between a rock and a hard place. She is damned if she does and damned if she doesn't. The whole of the EUROZONE will suffer if she doesn’t bail Greece out, as the debt that Greece owns is well spread throughout the EUROZONE. At the same time if she decides to let Greece default the ramifications for the EUROZONE could be more drastic.

As a master politician, Angela Merkel has presided over many a can kicking, and avoided tough decisions one after another for the past 7-8 years, but for her, the line in the sand is fast approaching.

Does she have balls? Will she stand up to have - No more “can kicking”, and give full-on debt forgiveness to keep the union alive.

It all depends whether she can sell debt relief as the best of the two options available for the good of the EUROZONE.

Can you hear the printing presses? If I were Tsipras, I would have had the presses running for sometime. You cannot count on the Germans to do the right thing.

Lets look at some possible outcomes that could be with us very, very quickly if the EUROGROUP stall or a Greek default occurs and a Grexit is announced: -
<ol>
	<li>Capital controls in Greece.</li>
	<li>A potential run on the banks probably across parts of Europe, in particular the periphery.</li>
	<li>Possible Capital Controls in periphery banks as rumours of more potential exits of the EUROZONE hit the newswires.</li>
	<li>Emergency ECB measures on movement of monies throughout the EUROZONE.</li>
	<li>Emergency ECB measures for EUROZONE state banks to hold monies overnight.</li>
	<li>ECB bank guarantees throughout the EUROZONE.</li>
	<li>Huge uncertainty in GREECE as the Greek people protest, riots in Athens.</li>
	<li>The blame game between Athens and the EUROGROUP reaches new levels over who didn't trust whom, causing political uncertainty in other EUROZONE countries. Stability is threatened.</li>
	<li>We have a contagion effect.</li>
</ol>
The one thing that you can guarantee is that any EUROZONE “madness”
however it manifests itself, will be blamed on the Greeks as all that EUROZONE politicians are effective at is appointing blame, they are certainly not problem solvers.

If there is an eleventh hour solution it will probably be yet another fudge by Merkel to buy time so that the EUROZONE central banks can offload a potential future Greek default situation into the ECB

The decision this week is very simple but the risks are high…..

The EUROGROUP has to decide; “<span style="text-decoration: underline;">a UNION or not a UNION”</span>.

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<ol start="3">
	<li><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:
</span></strong></li>
</ol>
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">SUMMARY OF PERFORMANCE:</span></strong>

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">3.1 – OVERVIEW and SUBSCRIPTION PRICING:</span>

For new readers who may not be aware, I refer to the PREMIUM SERVICE quite a lot in this blog and for more details about what it is, and, how much it costs, you will need to go the welcome page of <a href="http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> At the top of the page there are three drop down menus: PREMIUM SERVICE, PROMOTIONS (if available), SIGN-UP and DISCLAIMER. Further details and how to join are all contained there. You will need at PayPal account to subscribe.

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<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/PS-SUBSCRIPTION-COSTS-05042015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-5668" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/PS-SUBSCRIPTION-COSTS-05042015.png" alt="PS SUBSCRIPTION COSTS 05042015" width="380" height="473" /></a>

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">3.2 - SUMMARY OF PERFORMANCE:</span>

(Only the excel spreadsheets will now be shown in this section. References to previous, present and future trades “LAST WEEK’s TRADING REVIEW” will now be provided solely for the benefit of PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers and has been moved into section 4).

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">3.2.1 – PREMIUM SERVICE – COST INCOME ANALYSIS:</span>

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<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>TRADE SET-UPS - 2015 to date:</strong></p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">MICRO LOT TRADER</span> - 212 trades cost to trade = $21.20</strong>
<strong> PROFIT from 212 trades = $300.60</strong></p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">MINI LOT TRADER</span> - 212 trades cost to trade = $212.00</strong>
<strong> PROFIT from 212 trades = $3,006.00</strong></p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">STANDARD LOT TRADER</span> - 212 trades cost to trade = $2,112.00</strong>
<strong> PROFIT from 212 trades = $30,060.00</strong></p>
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<span style="text-decoration: underline;">3.2.2 - PREMIUM SERVICE - PROFIT/LOSS RATIOS:</span>

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<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/PROFIT-LOSS-RATIOS-05042015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-5667" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/PROFIT-LOSS-RATIOS-05042015.png" alt="PROFIT-LOSS RATIOS 05042015" width="410" height="583" /></a>

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<span style="text-decoration: underline;">3.2.3 - PREMIUM SERVICE - RISK/REWARD ANALYSIS:</span>

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<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/RISK-REWARD-05042015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-5669" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/RISK-REWARD-05042015.png" alt="RISK-REWARD 05042015" width="431" height="543" /></a>

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<span style="text-decoration: underline;">3.2.4 – PREMIUM SERVICE – PIP MEASUREMENT 2014 versus 2015 COMPARISONS:</span>

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<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/PIP-COMPARISON-MCH-YTD-2015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-5670" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/PIP-COMPARISON-MCH-YTD-2015.png" alt="PIP COMPARISON MCH-YTD 2015" width="617" height="532" /></a>

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<span style="text-decoration: underline;">3.2.5 - PREMIUM SERVICE - OVERALL TRADE SUMMARY MONTH &amp; YTD:</span>

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<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/PREM-SERV-PROFITS-1-05042015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-5671" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/PREM-SERV-PROFITS-1-05042015.png" alt="PREM SERV PROFITS 1 05042015" width="459" height="441" /></a>

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<ol start="4">
	<li><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBER EXCLUSIVE CONTENT:</span></strong></li>
</ol>
(Section 4 is exclusive PREMIUM SERVICE content only available to PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers)

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">4.1 - EDUCATION - TRADING ESSENTIALS:
</span>

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">4.2 – THE PREMIUM SERVICE – LAST WEEKS TRADING REVIEW:</span>

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">4.3 - THE PREMIUM SERVICE - EXISTING LIVE TRADES:</span>

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">4.4 - THE PREMIUM SERVICE – EXISTING LIMIT ORDERS:</span>

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">4.5 - POTENTIAL TRADES - WHAT CHARTS AM I LOOKING AT... UPCOMING POTENTIAL TRADES ?</span>

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">4.6 - MAJOR TRADING PAIRS WITH LONGER-TERM TRENDS MATCHING:</span>

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">4.7 - THE KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS (INCLUDING THE WEEKLY CHART REVIEWS TO MEASURE DIRECTION &amp; MOMENTUM MOVES)</span><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">:</span></strong>

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<ol start="5">
	<li><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"> THE WEEK AHEAD: -
WHAT AM I THINKING &amp; WHAT AM I LOOKING AT?</span></strong></li>
</ol>
<span style="text-decoration: underline;">5.1 - MAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:</span>

SUNDAY: N/A.

MONDAY: CAD – IVEY PMi.
MONDAY: AUD – Retail Sales.

TUESDAY: AUD – RBA Interest Rate Statement.
TUESDAY: GBP – Services PMi.
TUESDAY: BOJ- Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference.

WEDNESDAY: USD – FOMC Meeting Minutes.

THURSDAY: GBP – BOE Interest Rate Decision.
THURSDAY: CNY - CPI.

FRIDAY: CAD – Employment Change and Unemployment Rate.

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<span style="text-decoration: underline;">5.2 - FINAL THOUGHTS / CLOSING COMMENTS:</span>

I think this week may be a very difficult choppy week to trade.

I am not 100% clear how the EUR/USD will react to any news regarding GREECE. The market is weird at times and knee-jerk reactions are very much the order of the trading day at times.

Geopolitical news is often very black and white but we seem of late to be moving in shades of grey…be thankful I did not refer to the number of shades!!

Be careful this week, the AUD may be the trade to focus on with a rate cut expected from the RBA. However, please do not trade assuming this fact, nothing in Forex is certain. The Forex market is expert in buying the rumour selling the news.

We will have opportunities to make $$$, we just have to be alert and careful.

As always, there will be trades to trade and there will be some great opportunities, please trade in line with your RISK MANAGEMENT parameters from your TRADING PLAN. If you do not have a TRADE PLAN, in my opinion, you should, as this will help you with consistency.
<p style="text-align: center;"> <strong>Consistency = longevity in trading and that is a critical goal.</strong></p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong> IT IS THE KEY MEASUREMENT</strong></p>
Before you enter a trade work out the risk, price it in $$$. Place your stop accordingly. PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers have a full library of information on RISK MANAGEMENT, RISK TOLERANCES and POSITION SIZING etc. available for reference 24x7.

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<ol start="6">
	<li><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"> DISCLAIMERS &amp; OTHER DATA:</span></strong></li>
</ol>
<span style="text-decoration: underline;">6.1 - SUBSCRIBING TO THE “FREE VERSION” OF THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU:</span>

If you like what you have almost completed reading and want to have THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU delivered direct to your email inbox next week, here is what you do: -

Go to my website: - <a href="http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>

On the right hand side of the welcome page under my bio “about me” there is a blue box titled SUBSCRIBE TO FREE NEWSLETTER, click on profile and add your email address. It is as simple and straightforward as that.

I do NOT sell your email data to anyone…do not worry...one less thing to worry about!

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<span style="text-decoration: underline;">6.2 - THIRD PARTY COMPANIES WITH BANNERS ON MY WEBSITE:</span>

There are a small number of companies with banners on my website. In the interests of full disclosure I have a reciprocal business arrangement with these companies to promote their products.

Unlike many of my competitors, I use the products and services provided by these companies. I will NOT allow any third party on my website unless I am 100% happy that they can back up their promise.

By virtue of the fact, I work with these companies almost daily. I am more than confident to have them advertise on my website.

Any reader who buys products or services from any advertiser via a banner on my website, <a href="http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> will automatically have my help and assistance with any issues that they may have with my partnered advertisers.

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<span style="text-decoration: underline;">6.3 - TRADING &amp; PERFORMANCES DISCLAIMER:</span>

FLASH, RADAR and FUNDAMENTAL trade set-ups, “Tweets” and “Trade ideas” that are posted in my blogs or on Twitter are trades and set-ups that interest me. They are provided for training and informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as an offer, solicitation or recommendation of any specific security or investment strategy. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading Forex carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade any such leveraged products you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin, and seek advice from an independent financial adviser if you have any doubts.

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Take care

Scott Pickering
The Pip Accumulator
Sunday April 5th 2015

EMAIL / FOLLOW ME AT:
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Twitter: @pipaccumulator
Google+/scottpickering
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