<strong><span style="font-size: 14pt;">THE DAILY FX POST</span>
<span style="font-size: 14pt;"> from</span>
<span style="font-size: 14pt;"> THE PREMIUM SERVICE</span></strong>

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<strong>DATE: Friday 3rd October 2014
REF: #100</strong>

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<ol>
	<li><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong> OVERVIEW – INITIAL THOUGHTS:</strong></span></li>
</ol>
What a complete waste of time yesterday was for me. I hope that you guys had more success than I did. After all the shenanigans I banked 29 pips on the day, and that was from a later in the day trade that had nothing to do with the ECB.

Today, we have Non-Farm Employment Change.

Historically, I have had more bad days than good days in 7 years on these days. In fact, for three years out of seven I never traded on this day.

So it’s quite simple from my perspective today. The USD (DXY) is moving out from a 10-year consolidation and is breaking out, albeit this week it is consolidating it’s initial powerful move higher through the mid 80’s.

Here is my TRADING PLAN for the day:

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">SCENARIO ONE:</span>

300,000 plus jobs I am long the USD across the board, that means short: - EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD and long USD/CAD, USD/SEK, USD/NOK and USD/CHF. Plus long EUR/AUD, GBP/AUD, EUR/NZD, adding to my GBP/NZD, EUR/CAD and GBP/CAD.

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">SCENARIO TWO:</span>

Less than 200,000 jobs: - I will be looking for places to get short and I may FLASH TRADE the squeeze lower in the DXY. Focus on EUR/USD and GBP/USD long to confluences and fibs to take 30–50 pip trades only. I am still a USD bull and short USD position for me will be short lived.

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">SCENARIO THREE:</span>

If we get data of between 200,000 and 300,000 jobs. I will wait 30 minutes or so and then look at equity futures and, in addition, see if we have a direction in the USD (DXY). Recently, good NFP data the USD strengthens and poor NFP data the USD weakens. Middle of the road number, yikes.

This is the big problem for my planning ahead and, why I hate NFP days. A middle of the road number, could be a yawn day in prospect and it's a Friday. I may just sit the day out.

<span style="text-decoration: underline;">SUPPORTING DATA TO ALL SCENARIOS:</span>

Bear the following in mind: -

GOLD: is on the cusp $5.00 or so off a serious support level at $1205 plus a break below $1183 would be desperate.

OIL: toying with $90.00 again.

COPPER: This morning is sitting fractionally above $3.00. A serious fall below will send shivers through the commodity currencies.

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<ol start="2">
	<li><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong> KEY NEWS EVENTS TODAY (BASED UPON (NYC) EDT TIME ZONE):</strong></span></li>
</ol>
CAD: - Trade Balance.
USD: - Non-Farm Employment Change, Trade Balance, Unemployment Rate and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMi.

<strong> </strong>
<ol start="3">
	<li><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong> EXISTING LIVE TRADES:</strong></span></li>
</ol>
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<strong>RADAR TRADES:</strong>

RT143
AUD/NZD
Long at 1.1200
Stop at 1.0800
Limit at 1.1550
Price Now: 1.1138
Current Profit / Loss Position: -62 pips.
(Hedge will be placed at -100 pips if required)

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<strong>FLASH TRADES:</strong>

Not applicable at this time.

<strong>
FUNDAMENTAL TRADES:</strong>

FUN44
GBP/NZD
Long at 2.0507
Stop at 2.0000
Limit at 2.3200
Price Now: 2.0437
Current Profit / Loss Position: -63 pips
(Hedge will be placed at -150 pips if required)
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<ol start="4">
	<li><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong> LIMIT &amp; STOP ORDERS WITH BROKERS:</strong></span></li>
</ol>
Not applicable at this time.

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<ol start="5">
	<li><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong> FINAL THOUGHTS:</strong></span></li>
</ol>
Careful today.

This is the biggest day on the Forex calendar. If you are a new trader, or, if you have had a great week trading, sometimes it’s best to sit out NFP.

Some days these data dumps flatter to deceive and cause nothing but pain to your Forex broker accounts.

Non-Farm, always bounces around the knee-jerk reactions are cruel sometimes.

If you trade today, take a small position first and try to let the market establish the direction before entering. That is very easy to write, difficult sometimes to do.

The bottom line, do not let NFP ruin your broker account at the beginning of the month.

Scott Pickering
The Pip Accumulator
<a href="http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>
Twitter: @ThePremService
Email: premiumserice@weeklyfxdrivethru.com

<strong>DISCLAIMER:</strong>

FLASH, RADAR and FUNDAMENTAL trade set-ups, “Tweets” and “Trade ideas” that are posted in my blogs or on Twitter are trades and set-ups that interest me. They are provided for training and informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as an offer, solicitation or recommendation of any specific security or investment strategy. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading Forex carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade any such leveraged products you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin, and seek advice from an independent financial adviser if you have any doubts.

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