<strong>THE DAILY FX POST
from
THE PREMIUM SERVICE

</strong>

<strong>DATE: Tuesday 2<sup>nd</sup> September 2014
REF: #79</strong>

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<strong>1. OVERVIEW – INITIAL THOUGHTS:</strong>

It is great to be back with all the screens working and the Internet stable. First of all, I want to welcome all the subscribers to the PREMIUM SERVICE, I hope that you achieve your goals whilst subscribed and its great to see so many on 40 week subscriptions through to the end of July next year with quite a few of you opting for separate BROKER ACCOUNTS to measure the PREMIUM SERVICE performance versus your own, although I know from conversations many of you are part-time PREMIUM SERVICE only and that it just fine welcome to everyone.

Since my last few communications at the end of July, nothing too much has happened in the FX market. We appear to still be pretty much range-bound, with one or two exceptions tackled later and my initial thoughts are that we are still in a buy on dips, sell into rallies environment with maybe just one or two minor exceptions.

Geopolitical news looks a lot worse that the end of July and I fear that this will start to weigh in even with regards to the U.S. markets, which have in the past ignored pretty much everything.
<ul>
	<li>Iran getting involved with ISIS…. this starts something very interesting.</li>
	<li>Russia apparently disputing border lines with troops and tanks on Ukrainian soil opens up a new chapter in this dispute. All out war looks on the cards to me and the EUROZONE will fight back with sanctions that appear to hurt EUROPE more than RUSSIA. My wife read something yesterday about 5 of the major European leaders including Merkel and Cameron being banned from Russian Airport Duty-Free purchases…ouch…wow that will hurt! (Not sure if that was true but its funny if it was).</li>
</ul>
<ul>
	<li>The Eurozone worries appear to have gone one more step that I ever thought possible. The German Finance Minister; Schaeuble, never one to keep his trap shut appears to gave got Angela Merkel and Mario Draghi involved in a unwanted spat over ECB methods and policy. So much for ECB independence…. never believed that bulls**t anyways!</li>
</ul>
Moving away from Fundamental influences, the EUR/USD is toying with 1.3100 ahead of the Draghi’s circus-show on Thursday this week. The market heavily expects that the ECB will act to further ease this week. I am not 100% certain, but, having said that as I have sais many, many times in blogs and on Twitter TALK IS CHEAP and maybe now to flex his muscles against Merkel and Schaeuble our man Super Mario may well roll up his Italian designer sleeves and get stuck in.

The Cable is suffering because of a UK study that shows that the upcoming Scottish devolution vote is becoming closer as we get nearer to the date of the referendum. What was a 14% lead to stay with the rest of the UK is now down to just 8%. When you allow for marginality of error it’s almost neck and neck, hence this has spooked the GBP across the board.

The RBA held interest rates at 2.5% last night and provided similar rhetoric as in the past and the AUD/USD has fallen marginally. It will nearly always be supported as long as U.S. equities are bullish.

The Kiwi is also moving lower and I think it will only be a matter of time before we go sub 0.8300. I hate saying when not if, but these are my thoughts.

As stated earlier in this article, I do still feel it’s “a buy on the dips and sell into rallies market” at the moment. It will take me a little while to look around before I jump in trading. There are some real heavy news events this week so I will be taking my time.

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<strong>2. KEY NEWS EVENTS TODAY (BASED UPON (NYC) EDT TIME ZONE):</strong>

USD – ISM Manufacturing PMi

CNY – Non-Manufacturing PMi

AUD – GDP

AUD – RBA Governor Stevens speaks

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<strong>3. EXISTING LIVE TRADES:</strong>

Both of the FUNDAMENTAL TRADES below are hedged at 100 pip loss positions:

FUN14
GBP/NZD
Long
Entry at: 1.9800
Stop at: 1.9000
Limit at: 2.2350
Present Price: 1.9844
Current Profit / Loss Position: +44 pips

FUN37
GBP/AUD
Long
Entry at: 1.8200
Stop at: 1.7500
Limit at: 1.9155 then looking very, very long term to 2.0300
Present Price: 1.7806
Current Profit / Loss Position: -396 pips (position hedged)

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<strong>4. LIMIT &amp; STOP ORDERS WITH BROKERS:</strong>

No set-ups with brokers at the moment.

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<strong>5. FINAL THOUGHTS:</strong>

I picked a very difficult week to get back in chair. The high beta risk events are thick and fast this week. I will hunt around the charts this morning and I will tweet any trades that I am entering or looking to set-up with limit or stop orders with brokers.

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<strong>6. DISCLAIMER:</strong>

Trading Forex carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if necessary.

Scott Pickering
The Pip Accumulator
<a href="http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>
Twitter: @ThePremService
Email: premiumserice@weeklyfxdrivethru.com

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