<span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>1. INTRODUCTION:</strong></span>

I am still not trading or tweeting at 100% capacity. This week, I have spent most of my time on the sidelines waiting for entry levels to be hit....and to be fair at the end of the week I had pretty much lost sight of whether I was buying dips or selling into strength. As I trade basically the USD majors I am finding the market a little frustrating to make a good daily profit. I will not chase the market so I have been pretty much ignoring the moves in the USD/JPY, that is of course after taking my profits off the table way, way too early some weeks ago.

I am now waiting to get into some shorts but at the following levels: - GBP/USD 1.5200, AUD/USD 1.0560, NZD/USD 0.8300 and EUR/USD 1.3150. I am also buying on dips trying to get long on the following: - USD/CHF 0.9380, USD/JPY 94.50 and finally USD/CAD I am trading but the trade size is only a 20% position size.

I am so bored at the moment with the Fx market, maybe I shouldn't be,....... but I am......this has resulted in me even looking at trading some of the cross pairs like EUR/AUD, GBP/AUD, EUR/NZD and GBP/NZD. These commodity crosses have to some extent been driving the USD cross rate pair at times. They certainly were last Thursday. I did however stay connected to my trading plan and wait in cash.

Even the EU summit (Cheese and Wine Party to you and I), had no fallout.....Angela Merkel seemed to bend on extensions for France and Portugal to get their finances in order an the Italian election  issues seem to be pushed under the carpet at the moment. For the last three/four years you could always rely upon a Eurozone numpty politician making some stupid comment driving a bit of volatility in the EUR/USD......I never thought I would say this... but....... bring on the numpties!!

My Joker in the pack, Merv the Swerve (Governor King at the BOE) could always be relied on for a swift 50 pip drop every time he draws breath to talk about Cable. What did he do during the week? He said that the present levels about 1.4900/1.5000 were about right for the GBP/USD, which had the opposite effect!! I was ready to short on a pullback, now I have to wait, but,  I suppose my next entry level at 1.5200  gives me a potential better risk/reward trade.

I am still a raving USD bull, this rise in equities has to end soon, it is unsustainable. There is so much divergence and lack of correlations in the markets something has got to give......

Hopefully, the coming weeks will remove frustration by some of my entry levels coming into play.

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<span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>2. THIS VIEW FROM MY TRADING DESK:</strong></span>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>WILL THIS WEEK'S FOMC PRESS CONFERENCE BE A QE GAME CHANGER?</strong></p>
There is no doubt that the U.S. data has been steadily improving over the past few weeks. The last Non Farm Payroll number (Two weeks ago) and last Thursday's weekly numbers are showing good trends and steadily improving, even though there is much more to go things are moving at a macro level in the right direction. This past week we also saw that the ultimate consumer society in the world did not fail to deliver, by beating both the Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales figures.

These recent Government statistics have certainly placed Ben Bernanke, the most powerful man in the world, in my opinion, in the spotlight for  this coming Wednesday. My blog last week referred to the fact that the exit talk relating to  the FED's Quantitive Easing stimulus would increase more and more, and, in particular, following the Retail Sales numbers we hit 911 proportions with paramedics on standby. The presenters on CNBC were frothing at the mouth, until they realised that they may not  be able to talk the markets up if Ben pulled the plug on support for the equities markets.

So, with that said, on Wednesday we have a FOMC minutes release and a press conference, which will give Ben the opportunity to state his case verbally in support of the transcript that is released about 30 minutes prior to the press conference.

Ben has stated in the past that there are clear goals set in relation to the economy before he begins to withdraw support. Interest Rates will be kept low until unemployment hits 6.5% an inflation tops 2.5%.

Personally, I think that he has to stick like glue to these numbers on Wednesday to avoid a massive jolt of volatility. Having said that, the press conference will push him to talk about his exit strategy and this could be "The Game Changer". Even though I think that Ben will try to push the decision date well into 2014 and state that it is way too premature to talk about such things, as the unemployment rate is currently at 7.7% against a target of 6.5%. There will be calls no matter what Ben says, for an overview of how the FED proposes to exit and or reduce support without jolting the equity markets. If Ben goes too far with exit options, it will be tantamount to a feeding frenzy for analysts, markets and bloggers.

Bernanke is a very experienced operator, you just have to see the way he expertly plays the senate committees, he will not get dragged down a route that leads him to an ending that requires a dubious comment or sound-byte that the media can quote and re-quote out of context.

However, should Ben believe that he has to start cutting back on the enormous $85 Billion per month support a little earlier than 6.5% unemployment, and, by that  I mean he moves the goal posts.....this will be a game changer as much as him quoting exits times and values etc.

Personally, I cannot see him breaking his current winning code of telling the markets everything they want to hear in such a way that it's low on actual content but they feel satisfied. Ben will stick to his guns, he has to......... I do not think he can break away and create any kind of uncertainty. Uncertainty right at this moment could cause a massive pullback in equities and in so doing hit at the core confidence that he has worked so hard to achieve.

It does mean though, if this FED press conference isn't a game changer.......what about the next one?

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<span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>3. MY LONGER TERM TRADES:</strong></span>

I do not currently have any trades that I am calling long term but I am long the USD/CAD from an entry level of 1.0229 currently -36 pips and I am not happy that the weekly close is at 1.0193, below 1.0200 which gives the technicals a negative tone on the pair.

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<span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>4. LOOKING FORWARD....THE SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS:</strong></span>

<strong>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3074.</strong> We closed yesterday just below 1.3100, which was a little of a bear/bull line for me. I am looking to enter short at 1.3150. Will we get there? That is the big question for me. I think it's a case of playing ranges for the initial part of next week. 1.3000 is good support and 1.3200 is great resistance but I am doubtful that we will hit this number easily. This is why I think that 1.3150 is not just a good entry but also reasonable resistance. The only caveat I have is that we can have a market moving event out of the Eurozone at any time...Italy and it's parliament for example. This pair is hard to trade intra-day. I think that you need the ranges to help more than ever as this limits your risk.

<strong>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.5108.</strong> I am now looking to 1.5200 to enter short. The range in this pair is 1.5000 to 1.5200.

<strong>AUD/USD: Closing Price 1.0410.</strong> The most talked about inverted Head and Shoulders pattern is in play. The measured move is to 1.0500. Above 1.0400, which we are at now..gives a bullish sentiment to this pair and hence even more calls target to 1.0500. Support is very big at 1.0330. Below this level, the bears are back in charge.

<strong>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8273.</strong> If the Aussie rises the Kiwi will get pulled up as well screaming and shouting if it has to be! The range now is 0.8240 to 0.8350.

<strong>USD/JPY: Closing Price 95.29.</strong> A nice breakdown even though Kuroda has been passed by parliament to head the BOJ. There are rumours a foot that he wants to have an emergency BOJ meeting before the planned one in April. Even with this going on in the background the Yen has strengthened and has pulled back off the 96.50 highs to just above 95.00. I am ready to go long at 94.50 which looks a good level of support. The range 94.50 to 96.50....play the ranges.

<strong>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.0193</strong>. I am long this pair but only a small position, and, out of the money a little. I am concerned that we closed below 1.0200. The range next week is 1.0150 and 1,0250.

<strong>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.9386.</strong> 0.9400 was critical support for me. This level had held on spikes lower and the fact we closed below 0.9400 is concerning, that said, it's only a few pips below at the moment. The new range that I am looking at is 0.9350 to 0.9475.

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<span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>5. THE MAJOR NEWS EVENTS THAT INTEREST ME THIS WEEK:</strong></span>

TUESDAY - GBP -  CPi Data and the BOE inflation letter.
TUESDAY - EUR - ZEW Economic Sentiment

WEDNESDAY - GBP - MPC Meeting Minutes, Claimant Count Changes and the Annual Budget speech by George Osborne in the Houses of Parliament.
WEDNESDAY - USD - FOMC Statement and Press Conference.
WEDNESDAY - NZD - GDP
WEDNESDAY - CNY - HSBC Manufacturing PMi

THURSDAY - EUR - German Manufacturing PMi
THURSDAY - GBP - Retail Sales
THURSDAY - CAD - Retail Sales

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<span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>6. CLOSING THOUGHTS AND FINAL COMMENTS:</strong></span>

This is a big week, make no mistake. The ranges are in place and the discipline to be patient will be required to maximise the profit opportunity. I have several trades in my mind, and I gave my entry levels earlier in the blog, I know my exit levels so I know what my risks are before entering a trade. Risk assessment will be crucial this week.

As always with the Forex market there are so many market moving news events that are not published but lurking in the background all the time.....the Eurozone.........I need write no more.

Trade mean, with smaller lots, with wider stops, to cope with volatility.

Good luck.

Scott Pickering
The Pip Accumulator,
Saturday 16th March 2013