<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>CENTRAL BANK CONFUSION REIGNS...</strong>
<strong>(CENTRAL BANKS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THRU TO THE END OF THE YEAR)</strong></p>

<ol>
 	<li><strong> INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>
</ol>
Straight in this week. What sort of a week was that, that we just traded through, or in my case sat through? All I did was watch profits come and go as the markets lacked any fundamental direction. It was as far as I am concerned a classic chop fest. Scalpers of the market may have enjoyed it but I did not.

This month so far, I have hardly traded…look at all that sleep I could have had!!

In fact, in the entire week I closed one trade for a 35 pip loss and one for a 20 pip gain; -15 pips for the week. Hardly a knicker-gripping performance. For those of you considering a subscription it’s not always this exciting!

The big benefit from last week being such a snooze was that I made contact with several of my broker account managers and many of my PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers, usually I am too harassed to do these things.

Getting back on point…

I drove back from Prince Edward Island Friday 9<sup>th</sup>, the day that the Dow dropped almost 400 points. Since then the Dow has rallied back, sold off again, consolidated a little then sold off, then rallied and then sold off again into the weekly close. The Dow 4-hour chart represents a look-a-like design diagram of a scary helter-skelter theme park ride that one would see at a six-flags theme park in the U.S.

To say that these trading conditions are difficult nay challenging is a bit of an understatement. I have tried to let trades ride as at times I am guilty (I feel), of taking trades off the table too fast.

I have a EUR/CHF long trade that I have been live with since the 7th of September. This trade has moved in a range from a positive 30-80 pips for most of its time. This represents the market path at the moment.  There are other examples like EUR/USD, which finally went sub 1.1200 on Friday.

The market frankly at the moment lacks a leader. Yes, I know Gold, Oil and Bonds are trying to lead but it’s all rangey, well in my opinion it is.

I have written the following few words so many times, in many different formats in the past four years of blogs, and yet they are still as true today as they were the first time I wrote them….

<em>“Trading Forex requires patience otherwise you will not achieve longevity in trading. Capital preservation is paramount to success in trading Forex. You must set your objectives and trades in the full knowledge that you will miss many trading opportunities, but by waiting for trades to come to you rather than chasing trades, your longevity in the markets will be enhanced tremendously” </em>

Onwards and upwards…

To remind you, you could be the next winner of a free PREMIUM SERVICE subscription; if you subscribe to receive this free blog via my website <a href="http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a><strong>  </strong><strong> </strong>

You are automatically entered into a free monthly draw, once you’ve subscribed. Each month during 2016 one lucky blog subscriber will receive a free subscription to the PREMIUM SERVICE.

The next draw will be late September and the winner will be set up for the month of October.

<strong> </strong>
<ol start="2">
 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>
</ol>
<u>WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</u>

The PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber, fee based trade set-up option for Forex traders regardless of experience or background. I provide traders suggested trades, and some market commentary related to open trades or factors within the overall market that have my interest.

Full details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and the various trade styles plus how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href="http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.

Additional information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE you will require a credit card.

<u>PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION COSTS:</u>

Details of features and benefits of a PREMIUM SERVICE subscription can be found on my website landing page at <a href="http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the dropdown tab at the top of the page entitled HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE OF THE PREMIUM SERVICE. To subscribe follow the SUBSCRIBE HERE tab.

PREMIUM SERVICE subscription costs are as follows: -

CAD$240.00 - 4 weeks (1 month)
CAD$500.00 - 10 weeks (3 months)
CAD$750.00 - 20 weeks (6 months)
CAD$1,250.00 - 40 weeks (12 months)
<u>PLUS</u>: Existing PLATINUM MEMBERS (annual subscribers) can re-subscribe for a further 12 months for CAD$1,000.00

I work for about 50 weeks a year. Subscriptions are based on 40 published blogs of the WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU per year. For the remaining 10 weeks, I am around tweeting, posting and managing existing LIVE trades, although my market activity is reduced.

<u> </u>

<u>PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE THIS MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:</u>

NET PIPS TO THE MONTH SO FAR:      -725 pips
NET PIPS THIS YEAR SO FAR:               +8,475 pips

NET PIPS 2015:       +10,686
NET PIPS 2014:       +11,209

If you want more data or detail about the performance and the tabs on my website landing page do not answer your questions, contact me directly and I will supply the trading data you require. There are NO secrets. There are many, many spreadsheets detailing performance trade by trade and by trade and by trading style, way too many to place in this blog. If you are interested in the PREMIUM SERVICE and want more information, all you have to do is ask.

<strong> </strong>
<ol start="3">
 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>
</ol>
<strong>LAST WEEK’S NEWS – MY THOUGHTS:</strong><u> </u>

Last week was a snooze fest. The major news items that I was looking forward to such as the SNB and BOE announcements were non-events.

The big surprise of the week was U.S. CPi data on Friday last week.

I probably, like many traders was expecting a boat load of crappy data based on the prior days Retail Sales data and PPi. CPi was a great print. It brought in some well needed volatility and USD strength that broke many range bound and triangle patterns that were scattered all over my charts.

With this exception, last week was a snooze fest for other than scalper traders.

<strong> </strong>
<ol start="4">
 	<li><strong> MARKET OPINION:</strong></li>
</ol>
<strong>(</strong><strong>FORWARDS, BACKWARDS and SIDEWAYS) </strong><strong>WHAT IS FLOATING MY BOAT AT THE MOMENT:</strong>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>CENTRAL BANK CONFUSION REIGNS…</strong>
<strong>(CENTRAL BANKS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THRU TO THE END OF THE YEAR)</strong></p>

I had quite a bit of feedback over the past 7 days from last week’s blog. I am not one that gets too much feedback usually, but I must have hit a few nerves last week.

I am not going to go into the ins and outs of the questions asked and opinions raised about my opinions last week. All feedback was positive and whilst opinions did differ a wee bit, in general there was a great deal of agreement. I did say to a couple of respondents that I would re-visit the subject again this week and expand on a couple of pieces raised last week that I did not touch upon in great detail.

Basically…. we have confusion. Well at least that's my overriding view of the central banks at the moment.

I made a remark about Nicolaus Copernicus (Polish Astronomer) last week and joining his theories to FED chair Janet Yellen.

The world of Forex and other markets in my opinion, revolve around Janet Yellen, she is the centre of the universe, like it or not. Yet she manages a team of FED governors who frankly instead of maintaining market stability are creating uncertainty and havoc because they all have different versions of interpretation of economic statistics and market overviews. Whilst this is fine, they should learn that they should keep their mouths shut and their opinions to themselves unless to be aired in a FOMC policy meeting.

There is little point in the FED chair spouting consistencies and market preparations are important no surprises if all we read and listen to are the underlings squabbling over their points of view, which, frankly mean very little at the end of the day as it is the voice of the Fed chair, and only her voice that counts.

The Fed knows that the markets and the media are like Lab rats looking for food on a regular basis and competition for ratings means that the two main market channels CNBC and BLOOMBERG will bring on all sorts of alleged experts to voice opinions who then disappear never to be seen again… never held accountable.

This confusion is directly opposed to one of the main functions of a central bank, which is to deliver monetary policy and at the same time maintain market stability in doing so. I am struggling to see get on TV, smile at the pretty girls and say whatever you want without ramifications.

If you recall a couple of years ago, Mario Draghi, ECB President, had one hell of a problem with the Bundesbank, Schaeuble (German Finance Minister) plus Nowotny and others from the ECB board spouting off and contradicting ECB policies. Obviously Draghi won the day as those comments have pretty much disappeared and whether you agree with ECB policy or not at least it is now consistent in transmission.

The FED creates confusion at the moment. The forward guidance offers zero clarity only confusion to market participants… its guesswork. It is still better odds than doing your local lottery but it is still confusion in my opinion.

My point from last week’s blog is that many central banks are offering confusion, lack of direction because they are like us, waiting on Copernicus to offer up something tangible to hang our hats on.

We have Dudley, Rosengren, Brainard, Fischer all hitting the wires with the likes of Brainard now having TV time, just offering up a mixture of 100% misleading opinions and to top it all the likes of Evans and Kashkari who aren’t even voting members, adding more mud to already muddy waters!!

Is this permanent state of confusion from the FED, which results in the smaller economies playing a waiting game, good for the markets? I raised this question with my peer group last week. The short answer was no. We agreed that the financial markets are on a merry-go-round that frankly no-one wants to get off first, which is in my opinion exacerbated by the fact that Janet Yellen is over dovish and a ditherer.

I think that I put out a tweet during the week following Brainard’s speech stating that being a dove is easy. You can always find a reason for not doing anything.

Janet Yellen and her flock of doves on the FOMC are basically not cautious anymore, I think that that boat sailed a long time ago. They are now just so frightened to move, frankly a 0.25% raise back in the day would have been seen as a credibility issue and not managing the markets, the opposite in fact the tail definitely is wagging the dog now as far as I am concerned.

So to raise or not raise is the question.

This coming week we have the BOJ, RBNZ and the FED all with interest rate and policy statements to announce, plus Poloz and Draghi are also speaking. Sounds like time for some traders in New York, London and Tokyo to stock up on the Prozac.

Wednesday will be a big day: -

The BOJ start it off. There are rumours that Abe / Kuroda will be flying around in helicopters and raising the negative interest rate from 0.10% to 0.25% or even higher in an attempt to show the markets that they are in control.

Then the FED rolls in with much eagerly awaited decision and press conference. My gut tells me more dithering will be on the agenda. There is enough data to use to say why no increase in rates, and to push out the decision to the end of the year.

In my opinion that is a dangerous game as the Fed wants to normalize and have “something behind the clock on the mantelpiece” in my opinion in case the “Donald” is named president. Janet Yellen, by all accounts, if we believe the “Donald” is out of a job if he becomes the leader of the free world. My God there’s a thought. I need to stock up on Jack Daniels “Fire” for that one.

However, Yellen is a dove and like a leopard I cannot she her changing her spots.

Finally, on Wednesday, we have the chaps from the RBNZ, aka the press conference….. that is the cure for insomnia.

At the moment I have six live trades with the PREMIUM SERVICE: -

2 x EUR/USD shorts (POSITION TRADES)
2 x NZD/USD shorts (1 x POSITION and 1 x RADAR TRADE)
1 x AUD/USD short (RADAR TRADE)
1 x USD/CAD long (FLASH TRADE)

All my other open trades are cross-rates, which I will leave alone. These USD related trades I will probably close except the POSITION TRADES ahead of the FOMC on Wednesday. I see very little point having an open risk.

I will also review my limit orders ahead of Wednesday and remove.

CONFUSION = UNCERTAINTY in my book.

I hope that this addendum to last week’s main opinion piece in the blog has further clarified my perspective on matters.

<strong> </strong>
<ol start="5">
 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBER EXCLUSIVE CONTENT AREA:</strong></li>
</ol>
<ol start="6">
 	<li><strong> ON THE HORIZON… WHATS COMING UP THIS WEEK:</strong></li>
</ol>
<u>THIS WEEK’S FOREX NEWS THAT INTERESTS ME:</u>

(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market other than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to <a href="http://www.forexfactory.com">www.forexfactory.com</a> and <a href="http://www.tradingeconomics.com">www.tradingeconomics.com</a> for a more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).

SUNDAY: N/A.

MONDAY: AUD – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes.

TUESDAY: NZD – GDT (Dairy Auction results).
TUESDAY: CAD – Stephen Poloz (BOC Governor) speaks.
TUESDAY: AUD – 6 month Economic review.

WEDNESDAY: BOJ – Monetary Policy Statement &amp; Press Conference..
WEDNESDAY: USD – FED Statement and Press Conference.
WEDNESDAY: NZD – RBNZ (The Chaps) Rate Statement.

THURSDAY: EUR – Mario Draghi (ECB President) speaks.

FRIDAY: CAD – Core CPi and Core Retail Sales.
<u>THE USD MAJORS – MY THOUGHTS (A REVIEW): </u>

(In this section I have as usual kept my charts as minimalist as possible. With regards to charting in my opinion less is more!! I hope that they are clear. All readers regardless of level of experience should be able to follow my thoughts from my comments to the levels on the charts with ease)

My comments are contained on the charts.

EUR/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.1153

<a href="http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/EURUSD-DAILY-17092016.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-8339" src="http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/EURUSD-DAILY-17092016-1024x476.png" alt="eurusd-daily-17092016" width="1024" height="476" /></a>

GBP/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.2996

<a href="http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/GBPUSD-DAILY-17092016.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-8340" src="http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/GBPUSD-DAILY-17092016-1024x476.png" alt="gbpusd-daily-17092016" width="1024" height="476" /></a>

AUD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.7490

<a href="http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/AUDUSD-DAILY-17092016.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-8338" src="http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/AUDUSD-DAILY-17092016-1024x476.png" alt="audusd-daily-17092016" width="1024" height="476" /></a>

NZD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.7263

<a href="http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/NZDUSD-DAILY-17092016.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-8341" src="http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/NZDUSD-DAILY-17092016-1024x476.png" alt="nzdusd-daily-17092016" width="1024" height="476" /></a>

USD/CAD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.3212

<a href="http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/USDCAD-DAILY-17092016.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-8342" src="http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/USDCAD-DAILY-17092016-1024x476.png" alt="usdcad-daily-17092016" width="1024" height="476" /></a>

USD/CHF - Weekly Closing Price: 0.9800

<a href="http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/USDCHF-DAILY-17092016.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-8343" src="http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/USDCHF-DAILY-17092016-1024x476.png" alt="usdchf-daily-17092016" width="1024" height="476" /></a>

USD/JPY - Weekly Closing Price: 102.25

<u><a href="http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/USDJPY-DAILY-17092016.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-8344" src="http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/USDJPY-DAILY-17092016-1024x476.png" alt="usdjpy-daily-17092016" width="1024" height="476" /></a></u>

<u> </u>

<u>MY CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>

We have central banks dominating the news feeds this week. It is without question in my mind that you should eliminate risk as much as possible as we head into this period.

At the moment trading Forex can be likened to a World War II soldier trying to walk across a field of land mines. Whilst not a matter of life or death one has to tread very carefully and weigh up all the options available. Eliminating risk is the best option in my opinion.

As usual…

Always remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.

Take care,

Scott Pickering
The Pip Accumulator
<a href="http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>

DATE: 17<sup>th</sup> September 2016
BLOG VERSION: #214 FREE NEWSLETTER VERSION

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