(3060,16,'2014-01-20 13:28:38','2014-01-20 18:28:38','<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>1. INTRODUCTION:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nFive positive trading days in the past week so I cannot complain. I am seeing sentiment turning bearish in equities and the bullish comments that were so in your face appear to have crawled under rocks!\r\n\r\nI have been focused primarily on the AUD/USD and NZD/USD all week, in particular the latter since breaking below the 0.8200 trend line. This was the biggest piece of news for me last week…what a sad life!\r\n\r\nAs I have said soooooo many times, the commodity currencies lead the way and the Aussie in particular has been doing this. Interventions in ALL markets are now an everyday occurrence. Fundamentals are still important and often lead the way with sentiment the way it is, but right now the Fib. levels are guiding me more than ever….take note.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>2. MY VIEW ON THE NEWS SEEN FROM MY TRADING DESK:</strong></span>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">A BIG WEEK… &amp; A BIG MONTH AHEAD FOR USD, FED, BOJ, RBA, BOE, RBNZ &amp; ECB...GET IN YOUR SUPPLIES OF NESPRESSO RISTRETTO...NOW!</span></strong></p>\r\nAn often used daily phrase used to be “Another week, Another dollar”, or as we are now seeing “Another week, another \"King\" dollar”. Certainly the rise of the USD has taken many people by surprise. It shouldn\'t, but it has.\r\n\r\nAt times of ultimate extremes, it is the currency that people turn to,  along with precious metals such as Gold, but, now that Gold is really being seen for what it is, following all the immense QE (Quantitive Easing / Asset Purchase Facilities) policies being forwarded by many leading Central Banks, Gold is on a decline. Gold, I believe consolidating around the present levels c.$1350-$1425 before heading for $1,100 in the next leg lower.\r\n\r\nAre we at times of ultimate extreme ?....no I suppose not, but we are in unchartered territory regarding the current and future effects of Central Bank currency manipulation whether directly by the SNB or RBNZ or through the back door as a covert operation like the BOJ, FED, BOC, BOE and the ECB. We are in a currency war, do not listen to crap communiques and bulls**t press releases from the Central Banks and their respective Governments.\r\n\r\nSo, as traders, listen up.... unchartered territories = uncertainty, uncertainty = fear....and....fear = nearly on every single occasion a run to the USD.\r\n\r\nRight now, Japan is sending fear across the waters......the volatility in the Nikkei and subsequent wild moves in JPY pairs is sending a message. The message is fear...look at all the QE that Kuroda and Abe are throwing into the Japanese economy, they are trying to move 20 years or so of deflation out of the economy. A very, very ambitious and bold move, but its stalling, and traders in all markets are puzzled, almost twice as much stimulus as that supplied by the FED to the U.S. markets and it\'s not going to plan.\r\n\r\nCould the U.S. equity markets now stall? Read my previous blogs, I have talked about it regularly for the past six months. The U.S. equity markets are now very range bound and chart wise look like a break lower could happen with a cataylist...could that be Japan?  If the USD continues to strengthen the equity markets will eventually break lower no matter what BEN and the FED do...it\'s just a question of time and then a question of how far.\r\n\r\nCould it be the ECB, who now need to get off the fence, extract the digit from their asses and actually support a policy that will help the entire region to grow other than the present German support policies that have created a two-tier Eurozone? If Draghi can actually convince Merkel and the Bundesbank that stimulus must be focussed towards the Mediterranean, this could be seen two ways by the markets, EUR positive as it could be taken as aggressive pro-activity, or because they are so late to the party EUR negative as it could be viewed  as \"Too little too late\".\r\n\r\nThe spanner (wrench) in the works for ECB policy could be the Bank of Italy’s governor and member of ECB Governing Council, Ignazio Visco, who has called for the ECB to produce a further rate cut this Thursday. It will be interesting to see if this carries any more weight as we approach Thursday’s decision date. But this is further evidence that finally there are calls for the tough ECB stance to actually become accommodative to help faltering economies,  help stimulate growth and reduce the regions masses of growing unemployment. Should a rate cut happen….this would be EUR negative and it would strengthen the USD.\r\n\r\nThis week, we also have an interest rate decision from the RBA. I am not expecting a cut even though the Australian government has stated in several different reports and press releases that they view the Aussie dollar over-valued given economic conditions in Australia. The AUD/USD has fallen 600-700 pips recently and is showing signs of being well oversold right now, I would expect a period of consolidation. For this reason I think the RBA may hold off a month, but you just never know. The overall government policy is to weaken the currency, therefore “not if but when” will rates be cut.  This policy is obviously AUD negative and as a result the USD will strengthen.\r\n\r\nIn New Zealand,  the government there will follow Australian policies very closely, they too have stated publicly through the RBNZ governor Wheeler that the Kiwi is over-valued. No “Namby-Pamby” approach here from Wheeler with QE….. It’s full on “We have intervened in Fx markets to weaken the Kiwi dollar”  You have just got to love Wheeler, from a slow start he’s really got his teeth into his job now. Weakening the Kiwi will also strengthen the USD.\r\n\r\nFor the UK, which also has an interest rate decision and Asset Purchase Facility review (QE for the Brits!!)  on Thursday this week, the outlook is not good. Mark Carney (I need too find a nickname for him) the new governor needs to get his feet under the table before we see policies changing/amending. Merv “The swerve” King is in his own exit strategy right now of “Champagne and Cigars” as he hands over the reigns to Carney. He has completed his last swan song meeting in front of the parliamentary select committee and is in \"party mode\".\r\n\r\nThe UK economy however has bu**er all to be in party mode over. The recent glimmer or snapshot of what could have been seen as mildly positive economic data has gone. The simple fact is the UK economy is down the toilet. Carney is rumoured to be given a wider mandate with more FED like responsibilities. Watch this space to see what falls out. In any event, the UK needs stimulus that will be GBP negative and once again as a result the USD will strengthen.\r\n\r\nAre you seeing the picture that I am painting here?\r\n\r\nWorld uncertainty and need for stimulus is still there despite what has been done so far since 2008. Now I am not saying that everything in the U.S. is rosy….far from it. The U.S. would have GDP at 4% and above if it was that perfect as we are led to believe on some occasions. The U.S. is winning the less ugly competition at the moment but there are snapshots of positivity being seen. Hence all the “Tapering” talk……who would want to be Ben Bernanke?\r\n\r\nBen (the most powerful man in the world) Bernanke will no doubt have a twitching bottom this week as we await the Non Farm payroll numbers on Friday. Good numbers and you can bet the likes of CNBC will have so called experts on the channel giving out whisper numbers and initial targets from which tapering will start. CNBC will NOT be able to stop themselves. I URGE YOU…...pay zero attention. This has never been done before, no-one but no-one has a f****g clue what is going to happen as a result of tapering and no –one has a f*****g clue of the knock on effects in the world equity markets. I believe a coordinated release of some sort may be required to steady matters but then what do I know, I am just guessing. No-one knows how, what, when or the effects.\r\n\r\nAs stated before, and I will state it again the result of the tapering and uncertainty surrounding it is a move to strengthen the USD.\r\n\r\nOn Friday if the NFP numbers are good (forget about the fact that people may have just given up looking for work and fallen out of the numbers calculation). If the number is good and the rate of unemployment drops towards 7% away from the current 7.5%, there will be volatility and lots of it. Even though the FED has said at 6.5% QE ends, the whisper numbers will be out there.\r\n\r\nAs traders what does all this mean moving forward?\r\n\r\nI believe that with Central Bank policies throughout the world and the U.S. economy improving the USD will offer us a plethora of pips to make profits from.\r\n\r\nI place below four monthly charts, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD showing where the key levels are in my eyes and the major Fibonacci levels of the big moves looking forward. The target numbers are quite some way away but if the USD gets moving nothing stops it.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/EURUSD-M-010613.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1800\" alt=\"EURUSD M 010613\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/EURUSD-M-010613.png\" width=\"660\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/GBPUSD-M-010613.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1801\" alt=\"GBPUSD M 010613\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/GBPUSD-M-010613.png\" width=\"660\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/AUDUSD-M-010613.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1799\" alt=\"AUDUSD M 010613\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/AUDUSD-M-010613.png\" width=\"660\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/NZDUSD-M-010613.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1802\" alt=\"NZDUSD M 010613\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/NZDUSD-M-010613.png\" width=\"660\"  /></a>\r\n\r\nRemember back in 2008, the AUD/USD and GBP/USD would move 800 pips a day some days due to the volatility that was around at that time. I am not saying we are going to return to that, but, what I do think will happen is that we will get an extended period of USD strength that will allow us to make $$$ in a directional market. It will not be straight down, there will be stop off points but it will be directional.\r\n\r\nThis is not a time to pick tops and bottoms. With what is ahead there will no doubt be false breakouts as markets come to terms with what is happening and I would not be surprised to see a 15-20% correction in equities as a result.\r\n\r\nThe moves in the Forex market will be large moves. I am targeting in the next six months as follows if my thoughts come to fruition.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">EUR/USD: 1.1865\r\nGBP/USD: 1.3920\r\nAUD/USD: 0.8540\r\nNZD/USD: 0.6860\r\nUSD/CAD: 1.1280\r\nUSD/CHF: 1.0850\r\nUSD/JPY: Being honest ….This one is difficult, I haven’t got a clue how this pair will react, I am thinking back to 90.00, but I am not sure.</p>\r\nIn any event, the next week is big…the next month or so, even bigger get your supplies of Nespresso (#10 strength) Ristretto  in stock as you are going to need it with all the late night/early morning opportunities ahead.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>3. MY LONGER-TERM TRADES:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nAt the end of last week I exited trades, re-entered trades and then decided that I needed core positions going ahead so I started establishing positions in four currencies. I have taken profits, added back to positions, the usual stuff, as I trade within my trading plan and financial management strategies.\r\n\r\nI will tweet my actions as I go forward with these trades and any others that I may add.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>EUR/USD</strong>\r\n<strong> Short</strong>\r\n<strong> Closing Price: 1.2995</strong>\r\n<strong> Cost Average: 1.2975</strong>\r\n<strong> Stop: 1.3225</strong>\r\n<strong> Initial Limit: 1.2360</strong>\r\n<strong> Position Size: 20%</strong>\r\n<strong> Present Position -22 pips</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong> GBP/USD</strong>\r\n<strong> Short</strong>\r\n<strong> Closing Price: 1.5197</strong>\r\n<strong> Cost Average: 1.5176</strong>\r\n<strong> Stop: 1.5280</strong>\r\n<strong> Initial Limit: 1.4300</strong>\r\n<strong> Position Size: 20%</strong>\r\n<strong> Present Position: -24 pips</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>AUD/USD</strong>\r\n<strong> Short</strong>\r\n<strong> Closing Price: 0.9570</strong>\r\n<strong> Cost Average: 0.9598</strong>\r\n<strong> Stop: 0.9750</strong>\r\n<strong> Initial Limit: 0.8750</strong>\r\n<strong> Position Size: 20%</strong>\r\n<strong> Present Position: +26 pips</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>NZD/USD</strong>\r\n<strong> Short</strong>\r\n<strong> Closing Price: 0.7937</strong>\r\n<strong> Cost Average: 0.7972</strong>\r\n<strong> Stop: 0.8050</strong>\r\n<strong> Initial Limit: 0.7150</strong>\r\n<strong> Position Size: 40%</strong>\r\n<strong> Present Position: +33 pips</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong> </strong></p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>4. LOOKING AHEAD INTO THE NEXT 5.5 DAYS OF TRADING:</strong></span>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>THE MAJOR SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS:</strong></span></p>\r\n<strong>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.2995.</strong>  Initial support lies at 1.2935, but beneath here lies 1.2750, which I consider to be an important level. Resistance is good at 1.3075, after here the May 8<sup>th</sup> high of 1.3194.\r\n\r\n<strong>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.5197</strong>.  Resistance is good at 1.5240. Support is obviously massive at 1.5000. Between here and there 1.5110 should offer some support on the way lower.\r\n\r\n<strong>AUD/USD: Closing Price 0.9570.</strong> Resistance should be good at 0.9725, which is the 61.8% retracement of the sell-off since May. Support initially at 0.9530 and below there 0.9450.\r\n\r\n<strong>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.7937</strong>. Now that we are below 0.8000 we are in a real down trending move. 0.7880 and 0.7850 are good moving forward as support and resistance at 0.8010 will be good if we break higher. Obviously the trend line resistance at 0.8200 is massive but it’s well in the background for me now.\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.9549</strong>.  This pair is acting a little strange because of the market uncertainty. I am avoiding it but there are some interesting levels as I look at the charts.  0.9525 tests the 38% retracement of the February-May move upwards and if this support gives way 0.9430 is next in line as support. Resistance is 0.9680.\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.0373.</strong>  There is big support at 1.0265 and resistance is 1.0460 then 1.0525.\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/JPY: Closing Price 100.47</strong>. I see this pair heading lower in the short term at least. 100.00 will be a biggie then its really 99.60 and then 98.60 as support levels. If we break higher, 101.50, 102.10, 103.75 and 105.60 are the notes I have. This pair I am struggling with at the moment and along with the USD/CHF I am avoiding.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>5. NEWS EVENTS IN THE COMING WEEK THAT INTEREST ME:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nMONDAY: GBP – Manufacturing PMi.\r\nMONDAY: USD – ISM Manufacturing PMi.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: AUD – Interest Rate decision and Rate statement by RBA\r\nTUESDAY: GBP – Construction PMi.\r\nTUESDAY: AUD – GDP.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: GBP – Services PMi.\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – ADP Non Farm Payroll &amp; ISM Non-Manufacturing PMi.\r\nWEDNESDAY: AUD – Trade Balance.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: GBP – BOE Interest Rate decision &amp; Asset Purchase Facility.\r\nTHURSDAY: ECB – Interest Rate decision &amp; Press Conference.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: CAD – Unemployment Numbers and Unemployment Rate.\r\nFRIDAY: USD – Non-Farm Payrolls &amp; Unemployment Rate.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>6. FINAL THOUGHTS &amp; CLOSING COMMENTS:</strong></span>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nA big week ahead for news and the markets are going to be extremely nervous. The numbers this week will direct sentiment moving forward.\r\n\r\nTrade with smaller positions and use wider stops to allow for the volatility. Do not trade for the sake of trading. Staying in cash can be a good trade!!\r\n\r\nUse your trading plans and exercise good money management principles. Do not over extend yourself.\r\n\r\nGood Luck,\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nSaturday 1<sup>st</sup> June 2013.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','BIG WEEK...& A BIG MONTH AHEAD FOR USD,FED, BOJ, RBA, BOE, RBNZ & ECB...GET IN YOUR SUPPLIES OF NESPRESSO RISTRETTO...NOW!','','inherit','open','closed','','1784-revision-v1','','','2014-01-20 13:28:38','2014-01-20 18:28:38','',1784,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/1784-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(3059,16,'2014-01-20 13:26:58','2014-01-20 18:26:58','<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>1. INTRODUCTION:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nFive positive trading days in the past week so I cannot complain. I am seeing sentiment turning bearish in equities and the bullish comments that were so in your face appear to have crawled under rocks!\r\n\r\nI have been focused primarily on the AUD/USD and NZD/USD all week, in particular the latter since breaking below the 0.8200 trend line. This was the biggest piece of news for me last week…what a sad life!\r\n\r\nAs I have said soooooo many times, the commodity currencies lead the way and the Aussie in particular has been doing this. Interventions in ALL markets are now an everyday occurrence. Fundamentals are still important and often lead the way with sentiment the way it is, but right now the Fib. levels are guiding me more than ever….take note.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>2. MY VIEW ON THE NEWS SEEN FROM MY TRADING DESK:</strong></span>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">A BIG WEEK… &amp; A BIG MONTH AHEAD FOR USD, FED, BOJ, RBA, BOE, RBNZ &amp; ECB...GET IN YOUR SUPPLIES OF NESPRESSO RISTRETTO...NOW!</span></strong></p>\r\nAn often used daily phrase used to be “Another week, Another dollar”, or as we are now seeing “Another week, another \"King\" dollar”. Certainly the rise of the USD has taken many people by surprise. It shouldn\'t, but it has.\r\n\r\nAt times of ultimate extremes, it is the currency that people turn to,  along with precious metals such as Gold, but, now that Gold is really being seen for what it is, following all the immense QE (Quantitive Easing / Asset Purchase Facilities) policies being forwarded by many leading Central Banks, Gold is on a decline. Gold, I believe consolidating around the present levels c.$1350-$1425 before heading for $1,100 in the next leg lower.\r\n\r\nAre we at times of ultimate extreme ?....no I suppose not, but we are in unchartered territory regarding the current and future effects of Central Bank currency manipulation whether directly by the SNB or RBNZ or through the back door as a covert operation like the BOJ, FED, BOC, BOE and the ECB. We are in a currency war, do not listen to crap communiques and bulls**t press releases from the Central Banks and their respective Governments.\r\n\r\nSo, as traders, listen up.... unchartered territories = uncertainty, uncertainty = fear....and....fear = nearly on every single occasion a run to the USD.\r\n\r\nRight now, Japan is sending fear across the waters......the volatility in the Nikkei and subsequent wild moves in JPY pairs is sending a message. The message is fear...look at all the QE that Kuroda and Abe are throwing into the Japanese economy, they are trying to move 20 years or so of deflation out of the economy. A very, very ambitious and bold move, but its stalling, and traders in all markets are puzzled, almost twice as much stimulus as that supplied by the FED to the U.S. markets and it\'s not going to plan.\r\n\r\nCould the U.S. equity markets now stall? Read my previous blogs, I have talked about it regularly for the past six months. The U.S. equity markets are now very range bound and chart wise look like a break lower could happen with a cataylist...could that be Japan?  If the USD continues to strengthen the equity markets will eventually break lower no matter what BEN and the FED do...it\'s just a question of time and then a question of how far.\r\n\r\nCould it be the ECB, who now need to get off the fence, extract the digit from their asses and actually support a policy that will help the entire region to grow other than the present German support policies that have created a two-tier Eurozone? If Draghi can actually convince Merkel and the Bundesbank that stimulus must be focussed towards the Mediterranean, this could be seen two ways by the markets, EUR positive as it could be taken as aggressive pro-activity, or because they are so late to the party EUR negative as it could be viewed  as \"Too little too late\".\r\n\r\nThe spanner (wrench) in the works for ECB policy could be the Bank of Italy’s governor and member of ECB Governing Council, Ignazio Visco, who has called for the ECB to produce a further rate cut this Thursday. It will be interesting to see if this carries any more weight as we approach Thursday’s decision date. But this is further evidence that finally there are calls for the tough ECB stance to actually become accommodative to help faltering economies,  help stimulate growth and reduce the regions masses of growing unemployment. Should a rate cut happen….this would be EUR negative and it would strengthen the USD.\r\n\r\nThis week, we also have an interest rate decision from the RBA. I am not expecting a cut even though the Australian government has stated in several different reports and press releases that they view the Aussie dollar over-valued given economic conditions in Australia. The AUD/USD has fallen 600-700 pips recently and is showing signs of being well oversold right now, I would expect a period of consolidation. For this reason I think the RBA may hold off a month, but you just never know. The overall government policy is to weaken the currency, therefore “not if but when” will rates be cut.  This policy is obviously AUD negative and as a result the USD will strengthen.\r\n\r\nIn New Zealand,  the government there will follow Australian policies very closely, they too have stated publicly through the RBNZ governor Wheeler that the Kiwi is over-valued. No “Namby-Pamby” approach here from Wheeler with QE….. It’s full on “We have intervened in Fx markets to weaken the Kiwi dollar”  You have just got to love Wheeler, from a slow start he’s really got his teeth into his job now. Weakening the Kiwi will also strengthen the USD.\r\n\r\nFor the UK, which also has an interest rate decision and Asset Purchase Facility review (QE for the Brits!!)  on Thursday this week, the outlook is not good. Mark Carney (I need too find a nickname for him) the new governor needs to get his feet under the table before we see policies changing/amending. Merv “The swerve” King is in his own exit strategy right now of “Champagne and Cigars” as he hands over the reigns to Carney. He has completed his last swan song meeting in front of the parliamentary select committee and is in \"party mode\".\r\n\r\nThe UK economy however has bu**er all to be in party mode over. The recent glimmer or snapshot of what could have been seen as mildly positive economic data has gone. The simple fact is the UK economy is down the toilet. Carney is rumoured to be given a wider mandate with more FED like responsibilities. Watch this space to see what falls out. In any event, the UK needs stimulus that will be GBP negative and once again as a result the USD will strengthen.\r\n\r\nAre you seeing the picture that I am painting here?\r\n\r\nWorld uncertainty and need for stimulus is still there despite what has been done so far since 2008. Now I am not saying that everything in the U.S. is rosy….far from it. The U.S. would have GDP at 4% and above if it was that perfect as we are led to believe on some occasions. The U.S. is winning the less ugly competition at the moment but there are snapshots of positivity being seen. Hence all the “Tapering” talk……who would want to be Ben Bernanke?\r\n\r\nBen (the most powerful man in the world) Bernanke will no doubt have a twitching bottom this week as we await the Non Farm payroll numbers on Friday. Good numbers and you can bet the likes of CNBC will have so called experts on the channel giving out whisper numbers and initial targets from which tapering will start. CNBC will NOT be able to stop themselves. I URGE YOU…...pay zero attention. This has never been done before, no-one but no-one has a f****g clue what is going to happen as a result of tapering and no –one has a f*****g clue of the knock on effects in the world equity markets. I believe a coordinated release of some sort may be required to steady matters but then what do I know, I am just guessing. No-one knows how, what, when or the effects.\r\n\r\nAs stated before, and I will state it again the result of the tapering and uncertainty surrounding it is a move to strengthen the USD.\r\n\r\nOn Friday if the NFP numbers are good (forget about the fact that people may have just given up looking for work and fallen out of the numbers calculation). If the number is good and the rate of unemployment drops towards 7% away from the current 7.5%, there will be volatility and lots of it. Even though the FED has said at 6.5% QE ends, the whisper numbers will be out there.\r\n\r\nAs traders what does all this mean moving forward?\r\n\r\nI believe that with Central Bank policies throughout the world and the U.S. economy improving the USD will offer us a plethora of pips to make profits from.\r\n\r\nI place below four monthly charts, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD showing where the key levels are in my eyes and the major Fibonacci levels of the big moves looking forward. The target numbers are quite some way away but if the USD gets moving nothing stops it.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/EURUSD-M-010613.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1800\" alt=\"EURUSD M 010613\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/EURUSD-M-010613-1024x571.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"571\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/GBPUSD-M-010613.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1801\" alt=\"GBPUSD M 010613\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/GBPUSD-M-010613-1024x571.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"571\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/AUDUSD-M-010613.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1799\" alt=\"AUDUSD M 010613\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/AUDUSD-M-010613-1024x571.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"571\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/NZDUSD-M-010613.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1802\" alt=\"NZDUSD M 010613\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/NZDUSD-M-010613.png\" width=\"660\"  /></a>\r\n\r\nRemember back in 2008, the AUD/USD and GBP/USD would move 800 pips a day some days due to the volatility that was around at that time. I am not saying we are going to return to that, but, what I do think will happen is that we will get an extended period of USD strength that will allow us to make $$$ in a directional market. It will not be straight down, there will be stop off points but it will be directional.\r\n\r\nThis is not a time to pick tops and bottoms. With what is ahead there will no doubt be false breakouts as markets come to terms with what is happening and I would not be surprised to see a 15-20% correction in equities as a result.\r\n\r\nThe moves in the Forex market will be large moves. I am targeting in the next six months as follows if my thoughts come to fruition.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">EUR/USD: 1.1865\r\nGBP/USD: 1.3920\r\nAUD/USD: 0.8540\r\nNZD/USD: 0.6860\r\nUSD/CAD: 1.1280\r\nUSD/CHF: 1.0850\r\nUSD/JPY: Being honest ….This one is difficult, I haven’t got a clue how this pair will react, I am thinking back to 90.00, but I am not sure.</p>\r\nIn any event, the next week is big…the next month or so, even bigger get your supplies of Nespresso (#10 strength) Ristretto  in stock as you are going to need it with all the late night/early morning opportunities ahead.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>3. MY LONGER-TERM TRADES:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nAt the end of last week I exited trades, re-entered trades and then decided that I needed core positions going ahead so I started establishing positions in four currencies. I have taken profits, added back to positions, the usual stuff, as I trade within my trading plan and financial management strategies.\r\n\r\nI will tweet my actions as I go forward with these trades and any others that I may add.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>EUR/USD</strong>\r\n<strong> Short</strong>\r\n<strong> Closing Price: 1.2995</strong>\r\n<strong> Cost Average: 1.2975</strong>\r\n<strong> Stop: 1.3225</strong>\r\n<strong> Initial Limit: 1.2360</strong>\r\n<strong> Position Size: 20%</strong>\r\n<strong> Present Position -22 pips</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong> GBP/USD</strong>\r\n<strong> Short</strong>\r\n<strong> Closing Price: 1.5197</strong>\r\n<strong> Cost Average: 1.5176</strong>\r\n<strong> Stop: 1.5280</strong>\r\n<strong> Initial Limit: 1.4300</strong>\r\n<strong> Position Size: 20%</strong>\r\n<strong> Present Position: -24 pips</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>AUD/USD</strong>\r\n<strong> Short</strong>\r\n<strong> Closing Price: 0.9570</strong>\r\n<strong> Cost Average: 0.9598</strong>\r\n<strong> Stop: 0.9750</strong>\r\n<strong> Initial Limit: 0.8750</strong>\r\n<strong> Position Size: 20%</strong>\r\n<strong> Present Position: +26 pips</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>NZD/USD</strong>\r\n<strong> Short</strong>\r\n<strong> Closing Price: 0.7937</strong>\r\n<strong> Cost Average: 0.7972</strong>\r\n<strong> Stop: 0.8050</strong>\r\n<strong> Initial Limit: 0.7150</strong>\r\n<strong> Position Size: 40%</strong>\r\n<strong> Present Position: +33 pips</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong> </strong></p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>4. LOOKING AHEAD INTO THE NEXT 5.5 DAYS OF TRADING:</strong></span>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>THE MAJOR SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS:</strong></span></p>\r\n<strong>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.2995.</strong>  Initial support lies at 1.2935, but beneath here lies 1.2750, which I consider to be an important level. Resistance is good at 1.3075, after here the May 8<sup>th</sup> high of 1.3194.\r\n\r\n<strong>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.5197</strong>.  Resistance is good at 1.5240. Support is obviously massive at 1.5000. Between here and there 1.5110 should offer some support on the way lower.\r\n\r\n<strong>AUD/USD: Closing Price 0.9570.</strong> Resistance should be good at 0.9725, which is the 61.8% retracement of the sell-off since May. Support initially at 0.9530 and below there 0.9450.\r\n\r\n<strong>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.7937</strong>. Now that we are below 0.8000 we are in a real down trending move. 0.7880 and 0.7850 are good moving forward as support and resistance at 0.8010 will be good if we break higher. Obviously the trend line resistance at 0.8200 is massive but it’s well in the background for me now.\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.9549</strong>.  This pair is acting a little strange because of the market uncertainty. I am avoiding it but there are some interesting levels as I look at the charts.  0.9525 tests the 38% retracement of the February-May move upwards and if this support gives way 0.9430 is next in line as support. Resistance is 0.9680.\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.0373.</strong>  There is big support at 1.0265 and resistance is 1.0460 then 1.0525.\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/JPY: Closing Price 100.47</strong>. I see this pair heading lower in the short term at least. 100.00 will be a biggie then its really 99.60 and then 98.60 as support levels. If we break higher, 101.50, 102.10, 103.75 and 105.60 are the notes I have. This pair I am struggling with at the moment and along with the USD/CHF I am avoiding.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>5. NEWS EVENTS IN THE COMING WEEK THAT INTEREST ME:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nMONDAY: GBP – Manufacturing PMi.\r\nMONDAY: USD – ISM Manufacturing PMi.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: AUD – Interest Rate decision and Rate statement by RBA\r\nTUESDAY: GBP – Construction PMi.\r\nTUESDAY: AUD – GDP.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: GBP – Services PMi.\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – ADP Non Farm Payroll &amp; ISM Non-Manufacturing PMi.\r\nWEDNESDAY: AUD – Trade Balance.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: GBP – BOE Interest Rate decision &amp; Asset Purchase Facility.\r\nTHURSDAY: ECB – Interest Rate decision &amp; Press Conference.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: CAD – Unemployment Numbers and Unemployment Rate.\r\nFRIDAY: USD – Non-Farm Payrolls &amp; Unemployment Rate.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>6. FINAL THOUGHTS &amp; CLOSING COMMENTS:</strong></span>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nA big week ahead for news and the markets are going to be extremely nervous. The numbers this week will direct sentiment moving forward.\r\n\r\nTrade with smaller positions and use wider stops to allow for the volatility. Do not trade for the sake of trading. Staying in cash can be a good trade!!\r\n\r\nUse your trading plans and exercise good money management principles. Do not over extend yourself.\r\n\r\nGood Luck,\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nSaturday 1<sup>st</sup> June 2013.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','BIG WEEK...& A BIG MONTH AHEAD FOR USD,FED, BOJ, RBA, BOE, RBNZ & ECB...GET IN YOUR SUPPLIES OF NESPRESSO RISTRETTO...NOW!','','inherit','open','closed','','1784-revision-v1','','','2014-01-20 13:26:58','2014-01-20 18:26:58','',1784,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/1784-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(3061,16,'2014-01-20 13:36:03','2014-01-20 18:36:03','<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>1. INTRODUCTION:</strong></span>\n\nI am now back home after a short vacation in Prince Edward Island.\n\nI have not been active on Twitter these past two weeks or so, I apologise for this..... I will get \"back in the saddle\" next week. Even though away for a short holiday, I took my laptop and traded whilst away. This month has been a great trading month with most of my profits emanating from the AUD/USD and NZD/USD short. I hope, if you trade you had the same success.\n\nLooking back over 2013 so far, we have had three great trading opportunities so far that have lasted a week or so to maximise. Initially, we had the USD/JPY that in real terms has been moving since about October/November last year and now I think we are about as far as we will go given that I believe the long equity bull run is now stalling and I believe I could argue is starting to pullback. Secondly, we had the GBP/USD 1,000 pip drop in January and February. Get ready, this pair, after a very shallow pullback is now ready to drop even further. The final trade is the AUD/USD, which dropped from about 1.0500 to 0.9600 (900 pips) over April and May so far. With both the GBP/USD and AUD/USD I believe these will be major short trades over the next two/three months with huge profit opportunities up for grabs. I will expand on these thoughts later in the blog and add in charts to show the levels in more detail.\n\nWhilst I am bullish the USD.......\"Never fight the FED\" should always be in your thoughts as Ben and his team are supporting the stock market to the tune of $85 Billion per month. As I have written about several times, I do believe eventually the market will tire of the effects of quantitive easing, and I think we are almost there. In addition, the \"Buy the Dip\" mentality in the equity markets is starting to get many traders a little nervous given the commodity sell off. Whilst this sell off  at the moment is primarily in commodity currencies, look at Holy Trinity of commodities  (Gold, Oil and Copper) they are not exactly setting computer screens alight with multiple green lights, hence the nervousness, it may not be a \"buy on the dip\" opportunity - it may actually be a downward trend that is formulating .Continual low interest rates are eating away...next it\'s going to be deflation rather than inflation. Watch this space.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>2. THE MARKET OVERVIEW FROM MY DESK:</strong></span>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>\"TAPERING\" IS JUST ANOTHER WORD....ARE YOU DROWNING IN CENTRAL BANK LIQUIDITY?</strong></p>\nI go away for a few days and in the main I trade from my charts with little fundamental news getting through to me. I return home and in the first hour or so of watching CNBC or listening to Bloomberg Radio a new word has entered my world.......\"Tapering\". Holy Mother of God, not happy with starting the rush to weaken your currency, the FED or rather Ben is creating a new trading dictionary word by word. So as I see it, as the FED begins to end its $85 Billion monthly support, the markets will be weaned off the monthly support level by \"Tapering\".\n\nIf you are new to trading currencies you must be totally confused at the moment. It is such a false marketplace; there has been little two-way action. Data releases whether \"Good news or Bad news\" means nothing. Markets just keep rising as the Central banks continue to support equities. \"Good news\" means good for markets and \"Bad news\" means more support which also means its \"Good news\" for markets as the fear of removing support could cause panic selling. Most Central Banks......FED, BOJ, BOE, SNB, RBNZ and ECB are all to differing levels employing a form of easing / asset / bond purchases to weaken their currencies and this intervention looks like it is going to be with us for some time yet. The FED will lead us out of this mess via \"Tapering\" just as Ben led us here via his helicopter dropping waddies of cash into Wall Street.\n\nSo how do we trade around this false environment?\n\nFirstly.....it is what it is...it\'s not really false it is something that we as traders have to get used to and accommodate in our trading day regardless of what type of trader you think you are.\n\nAs mentioned many Central banks are easing or directly intervening in the currency markets. I have written on many occasions that drowning in liquidity is soon to be a common occurrence and we are now on a merry-go-round that is circling faster and faster making it impossible to stop it never mind get off it!\n\nLet me start with the ECB..... Super Mario has pledged to do \"Whatever it takes\" to keep the single currency alive...I don\'t think he thought that the Eurozone recession would bite the way it has the slowdown reaching into Germany. The latest GDP data shows the region in recession and for the Mediterranean countries of the Eurozone they will be in recession for years to come. The outlook for economies in the Eurozone is poor and further easing is required to help...this will be negative for the Euro but positive for the USD.\n\nThe Bank of Japan (BOJ), Kuroda as head of BOJ and Prime Minister Abe want to weaken the JPY and at all costs create a bit of inflation...a target of 2% has been set. The start of a pullback in US equities is weighing heavily on all JPY pairs and we have seen huge volatility in YEN pairs as they struggle to cope with the market swings. The JGB bond market is also volatile. The BOJ is not buying government bonds.... yet, well they may be, but they are not buying directly in the market. The Bond market is spinning around and adding to the volatility. Up to now the BOJ has been vocal, but verbal intervention can only take you so far. Both Abe and Kuroda to keep the G7 and G20 sweet have stated that they are only interested in tackling deflation and that currency exchange rates and stock market values are not in their interest.... bulls**t.  However if the volatility continues more than verbal intervention will be required.\n\nThen we have the \"Daddy\" of them all the FED. Bernanke was in Washington last week under scrutiny from one of the many senate committees that love to question him over his actions (talk about the pot calling the kettle black…if only the American people had the same TV coverage to Q&amp;A their elected representatives over their ineptness in doing anything in Washington other than call the party line!).  During the Q&amp;A when pressed about the exit strategy of the existing $85 billion per month QE programme, Ben brought up the matter of tapering and at the same time re-iterated the unemployment target rate of 6.5%. The markets fresh from hearing other FOMC committee members in the past few days voice their differing opinions on the exit strategy and of what tapering could and could not do ignored much of Bernanke\'s comments and only  heard.... \' tapering…. tapering…tapering…and, exits…exits…exits\'. God love them; the fear of the end of “Buy the dip”…let’s “Buy the dip” must have hit then hard. Equities began to sell off as the fear finally struck home that the Fed were actually already discussing ending, or at least reducing the amount of QE per month.\n\nTop tip…buy, buy, buy….”Depends”, “Andrex”, “Scotties”, “Cushion Soft”, \"Charmin Ultra\" or whatever is sold in your area. There will be a new kind of run on Wall Street!!\n\nSo, the markets as usual heard what they wanted. Ben talked it both ways. U.S. data is in essence winning the less ugly competition on the worldwide economic stage right now, but let’s face facts, the GDP numbers do not in any way shape or form reflect this confidence. They are still well below par, and the recovery talked about is still fragile, hence Ben’s two way discussion on the hill to the committee.\n\nIf Japan ups the anti…what do you think the FED is going to do?\n\nNext, let me write briefly about the UK.\n\nRecent data released up to this past week has been improving,  perhaps  indicating  the doom and gloom merchants were maybe a little too harsh.  However, the past week’s data on Retail Sales would have put the cat amongst the pigeons somewhat, as it was weaker than expected, maybe a reality check needs to take place. The PMi data at the beginning of the month may not after all be the Holy Grail for the UK economy.\nIn addition, we have “Merve The Swerve” King leaving the BOE in July and the very Conservative incoming new BOE Governor Mark Carney stepping into his shoes. How eager will Carney be to add to the UK asset purchase facility (QE), or rather get the UK back on track again? I hardly think \"Tapering\"  will feature in Carney\'s vocabulary for some time yet!\n\nFinally, little New Zealand the smallest of the majors…. has been directly intervening in the foreign exchange markets to weaken the Kiwi. No QE programme for them…just straight in no messing about!!\n\nWhat I am trying to point out as briefly as possible is that most of the major world\'s central banks are playing in the markets and we have a very, very false picture of basically everything financial.\n\nWhilst an individual country\'s Central Bank intervention is primarily aimed locally, because of the fact so many Central Bank\'s are adopting similar policies and all markets are now so intertwined it is very difficult for an individual Central Bank to achieve 100% of it\'s goal. We are reliant on something that is very difficult to stop, as the solution appears to be more easing,  and more intervention to try and stay ahead. To simply say STOP...is not that simple. This style of intervention has never been carried out by so many Central Bank\'s at the same time. We are on a merry go round or roller coaster on it\'s way down a large fall. This has never been done before and no one at all, absolutely no one without question has any idea what the market reaction will be, when one Central Bank stops first. If it was a coordinated stop by all Banks, then  God only know what would happen.\n\nOn the immediate horizon, you can bet your bottom dollar that Asian countries are ready to move if Japan steps up and away from verbal intervention in the next week or so, this action will have a knock on effect all over. The merry go round increases speed and the cycle starts up again, as everyone tries to squeeze an edge over someone.\n\nSo, as traders we are “Drowning in all this liquidity’ What are my thoughts?\n\nI am thinking bet on the USD. There are more US dollars than other currency in the world.  It is the dominant force and as the FED winds back, U.S. equities will follow and the USD will strengthen across all pairs.\n\nLooking at all the USD majors, most of them have charting patterns starting to become more and more obvious as the FED “Tapers”: -\n\nEUR/USD: Head and Shoulder pattern on a break below 1.2820, sets up a move towards 1.2635. In my opinion we are in a very long term down channel and sub 1.2000 is on the cards for me, maybe even a test of 1.1860.\n\nGBP/USD: There is already a bear flag formation in play targeting 1.4100.\n\nAUD/USD: The government has made it clear that the Aussie is way too strong. Most pundits are calling for 0.9000, some back to real low…. lows of 0.6000.\n\nNZD/USD: The RBNZ is already playing “Footsie” direct with foreign exchange. A break below the key level of 0.8000 sets up 0.7400 very quickly. If the Aussie does slip through 0.9000, the Kiwi could slip to 0.7000 and then my Armageddon number of 0.6500 is in view!!\n\nUSD/CHF: The SNB (Jordan) is rumored to be thinking of raising the peg in the EUR/CHF from 1.2000 to 1.2500.  We now trade in the region of  1.2500 without him openly stating a new floor, it makes you wonder. This has a knock effect in all CHF pairs. The EUR/USD directly affects the USD/CHF exchange rate as they are inverted for the most time.  Should the EUR/USD break below 1.2635, this should place the USD/CHF back above parity. Should this happen momentum will target 1.0500 pretty quickly.\n\nUSD/CAD: The most annoying USD major pair in my opinion. It is ready to surge. I think 1.1000 is back on the cards with USD strength deployed.\n\nUSD/JPY: I hate saying this…. but I am not too sure how this would react to a massive reversal in the US$ index given all the easing that Abe and Kuroda have at their disposal, as we will have a large pull back in equities, which historically all the YEN pairs have mirrored. Maybe the big disconnect will be coming, who knows. I do however see a possible re-test of 100.00 in the exchange rate, before any move higher should be confirmed.\n\nA week or so ago, I would have said 105.00 for sure and possibly 110.00 by the end of 2013\n\nBasically, chin up…no drowning…capitalize on the opportunities. You do not need to pick bottoms or tops, there should be 1,000’s of pips available.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>3. MY LONGER TERM POSITION TRADES:</strong></span>\n\nI currently have none. I exited most positions on Thursday last week and I am looking and waiting patiently for pullbacks to re-enter.\n\nI will definitely tweet my entries as they happen.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>4. LOOKING AHEAD; WHAT ARE THE KEY SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS IN THE USD MAJORS THAT INTEREST ME:</strong></span>\n\n<strong>EUR/USD: Closing Price1.2931.</strong> Big support lies at 1.2797, which was the most recent low. Upside resistance is at 1.3025, beyond there 1.3250 a bit away but a great shorting level if we could ever get  there…I doubt that we will.\n\n<strong>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.5125</strong>. Obviously there are going be stops in huge form below but 1.5000. We got as low last week as 1.5014. I think we are heading lower. After 1.5000, which, in my opinion is inevitable 1.4830 the recent March low comes into sight. My chart shows the bear flag to 1.4100. The upside resistance is at 1.5175 then 1.5320, the recent high.\n\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/GBPUSD-W-25052013.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1770\" alt=\"GBPUSD W 25052013\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/GBPUSD-W-25052013.png\" width=\"660\" /></a>\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<strong>AUD/USD: Closing Price 0.9652</strong>. We are trading so close to a major breakdown, or should I say meltdown! 0.9580 is critical support from last month. A break through here it’s bye bye Gracie goodnight one and all…or should that be Sheila? October lows in 2011 are just below 0.9400. This would be an obvious target after 0.9580. Upside resistance is at 0.9780 and then a big level of resistance is at 0.9850.\n\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/AUDUSD-M-25052013.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1769\" alt=\"AUDUSD M 25052013\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/AUDUSD-M-25052013-1024x571.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"571\" /></a>\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<strong>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8091.</strong> Big levels are 0.8000 to 0.8250\n\n<strong>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.9612.</strong> A big sell off at the end of last week but I am still bullish this pair. Support is at 0.9540 and initial resistance 0.9740 and 0.9840.\n\n<strong>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.0317.</strong> A break above 1.0340 sets up 1.0450 the June 2012 high. I think we should see much higher levels though. Last Monday’s low of 1.0210 is support.\n\n<strong>USD/JPY: Closing Price 101.28</strong>. I am hesitant on this pair. I do think that we may re-test support at 100.00 going forward or just below at 99.60 (the 62.8% Fib. retracement of this month’s move). Last week’s high of 103.74 looks a long way away at the moment, but this is the range to watch.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>5. MAJOR NEWS AND DATA EVENTS THAT INTEREST ME IN THE COMING WEEK:</strong></span>\n\nTUESDAY: JPY - KURODA SPEAKS\n\nWEDNESDAY: CAD – BOC INTEREST RATE STATEMENT\nWEDNESDAY: AUD - BUILDING APPROVALS &amp; CAP. EXP.\n\nTHURSDAY: USD – PRELIMINARY GDP\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>6. FINAL THOUGHTS &amp; COMMENTS:</strong></span>\n\nAs usual trade easy out there and do not get too carried away. I really believe we will have some great opportunities ahead to make some great pips on some major moves.\n\nWe need to be patient for all the “ducks” to get in a row. I think we will be able to make, store and bank profits for a while should the USD take control. We do not need to be heroes picking tops and bottoms, there are 1,000’s of pips available if the move takes hold. Establishing core positions will be key, but patience and working with good money management disciplines critical for success.\n\nWork within your trading plan at all times.\n\n&nbsp;\n\nScott Pickering\nThe Pip Accumulator\nSaturday 25<sup>th</sup> May 2013.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n&nbsp;\n\n&nbsp;\n\n&nbsp;\n\n&nbsp;','\"TAPERING\" IS JUST ANOTHER WORD....ARE YOU DROWNING IN CENTRAL BANK LIQUIDITY?','','inherit','open','closed','','1746-autosave-v1','','','2014-01-20 13:36:03','2014-01-20 18:36:03','',1746,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/1746-autosave-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(3062,16,'2014-01-20 13:36:21','2014-01-20 18:36:21','<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>1. INTRODUCTION:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nI am now back home after a short vacation in Prince Edward Island.\r\n\r\nI have not been active on Twitter these past two weeks or so, I apologise for this..... I will get \"back in the saddle\" next week. Even though away for a short holiday, I took my laptop and traded whilst away. This month has been a great trading month with most of my profits emanating from the AUD/USD and NZD/USD short. I hope, if you trade you had the same success.\r\n\r\nLooking back over 2013 so far, we have had three great trading opportunities so far that have lasted a week or so to maximise. Initially, we had the USD/JPY that in real terms has been moving since about October/November last year and now I think we are about as far as we will go given that I believe the long equity bull run is now stalling and I believe I could argue is starting to pullback. Secondly, we had the GBP/USD 1,000 pip drop in January and February. Get ready, this pair, after a very shallow pullback is now ready to drop even further. The final trade is the AUD/USD, which dropped from about 1.0500 to 0.9600 (900 pips) over April and May so far. With both the GBP/USD and AUD/USD I believe these will be major short trades over the next two/three months with huge profit opportunities up for grabs. I will expand on these thoughts later in the blog and add in charts to show the levels in more detail.\r\n\r\nWhilst I am bullish the USD.......\"Never fight the FED\" should always be in your thoughts as Ben and his team are supporting the stock market to the tune of $85 Billion per month. As I have written about several times, I do believe eventually the market will tire of the effects of quantitive easing, and I think we are almost there. In addition, the \"Buy the Dip\" mentality in the equity markets is starting to get many traders a little nervous given the commodity sell off. Whilst this sell off  at the moment is primarily in commodity currencies, look at Holy Trinity of commodities  (Gold, Oil and Copper) they are not exactly setting computer screens alight with multiple green lights, hence the nervousness, it may not be a \"buy on the dip\" opportunity - it may actually be a downward trend that is formulating .Continual low interest rates are eating away...next it\'s going to be deflation rather than inflation. Watch this space.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>2. THE MARKET OVERVIEW FROM MY DESK:</strong></span>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>\"TAPERING\" IS JUST ANOTHER WORD....ARE YOU DROWNING IN CENTRAL BANK LIQUIDITY?</strong></p>\r\nI go away for a few days and in the main I trade from my charts with little fundamental news getting through to me. I return home and in the first hour or so of watching CNBC or listening to Bloomberg Radio a new word has entered my world.......\"Tapering\". Holy Mother of God, not happy with starting the rush to weaken your currency, the FED or rather Ben is creating a new trading dictionary word by word. So as I see it, as the FED begins to end its $85 Billion monthly support, the markets will be weaned off the monthly support level by \"Tapering\".\r\n\r\nIf you are new to trading currencies you must be totally confused at the moment. It is such a false marketplace; there has been little two-way action. Data releases whether \"Good news or Bad news\" means nothing. Markets just keep rising as the Central banks continue to support equities. \"Good news\" means good for markets and \"Bad news\" means more support which also means its \"Good news\" for markets as the fear of removing support could cause panic selling. Most Central Banks......FED, BOJ, BOE, SNB, RBNZ and ECB are all to differing levels employing a form of easing / asset / bond purchases to weaken their currencies and this intervention looks like it is going to be with us for some time yet. The FED will lead us out of this mess via \"Tapering\" just as Ben led us here via his helicopter dropping waddies of cash into Wall Street.\r\n\r\nSo how do we trade around this false environment?\r\n\r\nFirstly.....it is what it is...it\'s not really false it is something that we as traders have to get used to and accommodate in our trading day regardless of what type of trader you think you are.\r\n\r\nAs mentioned many Central banks are easing or directly intervening in the currency markets. I have written on many occasions that drowning in liquidity is soon to be a common occurrence and we are now on a merry-go-round that is circling faster and faster making it impossible to stop it never mind get off it!\r\n\r\nLet me start with the ECB..... Super Mario has pledged to do \"Whatever it takes\" to keep the single currency alive...I don\'t think he thought that the Eurozone recession would bite the way it has the slowdown reaching into Germany. The latest GDP data shows the region in recession and for the Mediterranean countries of the Eurozone they will be in recession for years to come. The outlook for economies in the Eurozone is poor and further easing is required to help...this will be negative for the Euro but positive for the USD.\r\n\r\nThe Bank of Japan (BOJ), Kuroda as head of BOJ and Prime Minister Abe want to weaken the JPY and at all costs create a bit of inflation...a target of 2% has been set. The start of a pullback in US equities is weighing heavily on all JPY pairs and we have seen huge volatility in YEN pairs as they struggle to cope with the market swings. The JGB bond market is also volatile. The BOJ is not buying government bonds.... yet, well they may be, but they are not buying directly in the market. The Bond market is spinning around and adding to the volatility. Up to now the BOJ has been vocal, but verbal intervention can only take you so far. Both Abe and Kuroda to keep the G7 and G20 sweet have stated that they are only interested in tackling deflation and that currency exchange rates and stock market values are not in their interest.... bulls**t.  However if the volatility continues more than verbal intervention will be required.\r\n\r\nThen we have the \"Daddy\" of them all the FED. Bernanke was in Washington last week under scrutiny from one of the many senate committees that love to question him over his actions (talk about the pot calling the kettle black…if only the American people had the same TV coverage to Q&amp;A their elected representatives over their ineptness in doing anything in Washington other than call the party line!).  During the Q&amp;A when pressed about the exit strategy of the existing $85 billion per month QE programme, Ben brought up the matter of tapering and at the same time re-iterated the unemployment target rate of 6.5%. The markets fresh from hearing other FOMC committee members in the past few days voice their differing opinions on the exit strategy and of what tapering could and could not do ignored much of Bernanke\'s comments and only  heard.... \' tapering…. tapering…tapering…and, exits…exits…exits\'. God love them; the fear of the end of “Buy the dip”…let’s “Buy the dip” must have hit then hard. Equities began to sell off as the fear finally struck home that the Fed were actually already discussing ending, or at least reducing the amount of QE per month.\r\n\r\nTop tip…buy, buy, buy….”Depends”, “Andrex”, “Scotties”, “Cushion Soft”, \"Charmin Ultra\" or whatever is sold in your area. There will be a new kind of run on Wall Street!!\r\n\r\nSo, the markets as usual heard what they wanted. Ben talked it both ways. U.S. data is in essence winning the less ugly competition on the worldwide economic stage right now, but let’s face facts, the GDP numbers do not in any way shape or form reflect this confidence. They are still well below par, and the recovery talked about is still fragile, hence Ben’s two way discussion on the hill to the committee.\r\n\r\nIf Japan ups the anti…what do you think the FED is going to do?\r\n\r\nNext, let me write briefly about the UK.\r\n\r\nRecent data released up to this past week has been improving,  perhaps  indicating  the doom and gloom merchants were maybe a little too harsh.  However, the past week’s data on Retail Sales would have put the cat amongst the pigeons somewhat, as it was weaker than expected, maybe a reality check needs to take place. The PMi data at the beginning of the month may not after all be the Holy Grail for the UK economy.\r\nIn addition, we have “Merve The Swerve” King leaving the BOE in July and the very Conservative incoming new BOE Governor Mark Carney stepping into his shoes. How eager will Carney be to add to the UK asset purchase facility (QE), or rather get the UK back on track again? I hardly think \"Tapering\"  will feature in Carney\'s vocabulary for some time yet!\r\n\r\nFinally, little New Zealand the smallest of the majors…. has been directly intervening in the foreign exchange markets to weaken the Kiwi. No QE programme for them…just straight in no messing about!!\r\n\r\nWhat I am trying to point out as briefly as possible is that most of the major world\'s central banks are playing in the markets and we have a very, very false picture of basically everything financial.\r\n\r\nWhilst an individual country\'s Central Bank intervention is primarily aimed locally, because of the fact so many Central Bank\'s are adopting similar policies and all markets are now so intertwined it is very difficult for an individual Central Bank to achieve 100% of it\'s goal. We are reliant on something that is very difficult to stop, as the solution appears to be more easing,  and more intervention to try and stay ahead. To simply say STOP...is not that simple. This style of intervention has never been carried out by so many Central Bank\'s at the same time. We are on a merry go round or roller coaster on it\'s way down a large fall. This has never been done before and no one at all, absolutely no one without question has any idea what the market reaction will be, when one Central Bank stops first. If it was a coordinated stop by all Banks, then  God only know what would happen.\r\n\r\nOn the immediate horizon, you can bet your bottom dollar that Asian countries are ready to move if Japan steps up and away from verbal intervention in the next week or so, this action will have a knock on effect all over. The merry go round increases speed and the cycle starts up again, as everyone tries to squeeze an edge over someone.\r\n\r\nSo, as traders we are “Drowning in all this liquidity’ What are my thoughts?\r\n\r\nI am thinking bet on the USD. There are more US dollars than other currency in the world.  It is the dominant force and as the FED winds back, U.S. equities will follow and the USD will strengthen across all pairs.\r\n\r\nLooking at all the USD majors, most of them have charting patterns starting to become more and more obvious as the FED “Tapers”: -\r\n\r\nEUR/USD: Head and Shoulder pattern on a break below 1.2820, sets up a move towards 1.2635. In my opinion we are in a very long term down channel and sub 1.2000 is on the cards for me, maybe even a test of 1.1860.\r\n\r\nGBP/USD: There is already a bear flag formation in play targeting 1.4100.\r\n\r\nAUD/USD: The government has made it clear that the Aussie is way too strong. Most pundits are calling for 0.9000, some back to real low…. lows of 0.6000.\r\n\r\nNZD/USD: The RBNZ is already playing “Footsie” direct with foreign exchange. A break below the key level of 0.8000 sets up 0.7400 very quickly. If the Aussie does slip through 0.9000, the Kiwi could slip to 0.7000 and then my Armageddon number of 0.6500 is in view!!\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF: The SNB (Jordan) is rumored to be thinking of raising the peg in the EUR/CHF from 1.2000 to 1.2500.  We now trade in the region of  1.2500 without him openly stating a new floor, it makes you wonder. This has a knock effect in all CHF pairs. The EUR/USD directly affects the USD/CHF exchange rate as they are inverted for the most time.  Should the EUR/USD break below 1.2635, this should place the USD/CHF back above parity. Should this happen momentum will target 1.0500 pretty quickly.\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD: The most annoying USD major pair in my opinion. It is ready to surge. I think 1.1000 is back on the cards with USD strength deployed.\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY: I hate saying this…. but I am not too sure how this would react to a massive reversal in the US$ index given all the easing that Abe and Kuroda have at their disposal, as we will have a large pull back in equities, which historically all the YEN pairs have mirrored. Maybe the big disconnect will be coming, who knows. I do however see a possible re-test of 100.00 in the exchange rate, before any move higher should be confirmed.\r\n\r\nA week or so ago, I would have said 105.00 for sure and possibly 110.00 by the end of 2013\r\n\r\nBasically, chin up…no drowning…capitalize on the opportunities. You do not need to pick bottoms or tops, there should be 1,000’s of pips available.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>3. MY LONGER TERM POSITION TRADES:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nI currently have none. I exited most positions on Thursday last week and I am looking and waiting patiently for pullbacks to re-enter.\r\n\r\nI will definitely tweet my entries as they happen.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>4. LOOKING AHEAD; WHAT ARE THE KEY SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS IN THE USD MAJORS THAT INTEREST ME:</strong></span>\r\n\r\n<strong>EUR/USD: Closing Price1.2931.</strong> Big support lies at 1.2797, which was the most recent low. Upside resistance is at 1.3025, beyond there 1.3250 a bit away but a great shorting level if we could ever get  there…I doubt that we will.\r\n\r\n<strong>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.5125</strong>. Obviously there are going be stops in huge form below but 1.5000. We got as low last week as 1.5014. I think we are heading lower. After 1.5000, which, in my opinion is inevitable 1.4830 the recent March low comes into sight. My chart shows the bear flag to 1.4100. The upside resistance is at 1.5175 then 1.5320, the recent high.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/GBPUSD-W-25052013.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1770\" alt=\"GBPUSD W 25052013\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/GBPUSD-W-25052013.png\" width=\"660\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>AUD/USD: Closing Price 0.9652</strong>. We are trading so close to a major breakdown, or should I say meltdown! 0.9580 is critical support from last month. A break through here it’s bye bye Gracie goodnight one and all…or should that be Sheila? October lows in 2011 are just below 0.9400. This would be an obvious target after 0.9580. Upside resistance is at 0.9780 and then a big level of resistance is at 0.9850.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/AUDUSD-M-25052013.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1769\" alt=\"AUDUSD M 25052013\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/AUDUSD-M-25052013.png\" width=\"660\"/></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8091.</strong> Big levels are 0.8000 to 0.8250\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.9612.</strong> A big sell off at the end of last week but I am still bullish this pair. Support is at 0.9540 and initial resistance 0.9740 and 0.9840.\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.0317.</strong> A break above 1.0340 sets up 1.0450 the June 2012 high. I think we should see much higher levels though. Last Monday’s low of 1.0210 is support.\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/JPY: Closing Price 101.28</strong>. I am hesitant on this pair. I do think that we may re-test support at 100.00 going forward or just below at 99.60 (the 62.8% Fib. retracement of this month’s move). Last week’s high of 103.74 looks a long way away at the moment, but this is the range to watch.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>5. MAJOR NEWS AND DATA EVENTS THAT INTEREST ME IN THE COMING WEEK:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: JPY - KURODA SPEAKS\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: CAD – BOC INTEREST RATE STATEMENT\r\nWEDNESDAY: AUD - BUILDING APPROVALS &amp; CAP. EXP.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: USD – PRELIMINARY GDP\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>6. FINAL THOUGHTS &amp; COMMENTS:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nAs usual trade easy out there and do not get too carried away. I really believe we will have some great opportunities ahead to make some great pips on some major moves.\r\n\r\nWe need to be patient for all the “ducks” to get in a row. I think we will be able to make, store and bank profits for a while should the USD take control. We do not need to be heroes picking tops and bottoms, there are 1,000’s of pips available if the move takes hold. Establishing core positions will be key, but patience and working with good money management disciplines critical for success.\r\n\r\nWork within your trading plan at all times.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nSaturday 25<sup>th</sup> May 2013.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','\"TAPERING\" IS JUST ANOTHER WORD....ARE YOU DROWNING IN CENTRAL BANK LIQUIDITY?','','inherit','open','closed','','1746-revision-v1','','','2014-01-20 13:36:21','2014-01-20 18:36:21','',1746,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/1746-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(3063,16,'2014-01-20 13:39:31','2014-01-20 18:39:31','&nbsp;\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>1. INTRODUCTION:</strong></span>\n\nI hope that all you guys had a successful week of trading. There were certainly directional opportunities for all of us to profit from at the end of the week. Last week was my best week\'s trading year to date....thank God....because I was getting bored and I mean bored with the market. I was thinking of calling it an early close for the summer and taking an extended break.\n\nLots of pieces have been written about the dramatic moves seen over the last few days,  but really it was just a continuation of what was already developing in the markets. The inter-market correlations between Equities, Commodities, Bonds and Forex previously politely defined as \"stretched\" are now long gone, key relationships within specific markets were questionable.\n\nI have remained long the USD for a few weeks now and on Thursday the USD exploded on the back of the move towards 100.00 by the USD/JPY. The crazy thing was that \"Twitter\" went a little wild towards the end of the week with very high expectations on moves, and the  potential pip gains that were written about were incredible....I think that far too many fully leaded coffees were taken and no-one thought to try a de-caf!!\n\nThe RBA opened up talk of further weakness and rate cuts ahead on Tuesday night, then Wednesday night both the New Zealand and Australian Job numbers were blow outs, poo-pooing the previous nights comments a little. The RBNZ also said that it was openly interfering in the currency markets to weaken the New Zealand dollar.....well that\'s it they are all it.....so much liquidity we are going to drown as everywhere is flooded by central bank liquidity. Crazy times......\n\n&nbsp;\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>2 THE VIEW FROM MY TRADING DESK:</strong></span>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>NICE VOLATILITY IN FOREX....BUT DO NOT GET CARRIED AWAY....YET!!</strong></span></p>\nSo....it finally happened.\n\nThe break with correlations between markets finally gave us something that many people (myself included) have spoken or written about over the recent weeks. Personally, I do think that some people \"Lost the run of themselves\" by getting well carried away with predictions and pip moves. What we all do have to remember is that the Forex markets are flexing, as we had reached many break out scenarios at the same time, and correlations failed completely, but we did not break down. Major levels of support and resistance were tested and pierced but by the end of the week most currency pairs came back to key levels having just probed below or above trend lines.\n\nBelow is a snapshot of my experiences these past few days.....\n\n<em>Two news events in the week were high on my agenda, and still being long the USD, I went into both news events holding smallish positions. With both the AUD and NZD the employment data was better than the market predictions and both currencies strengthened on the news. (I had been short both the AUD/USD and NZD/USD from earlier in the week ahead of Tuesday night\'s RBA Interest Rate announcement). After the release of the Employment data on both occasions, to say that I was pist off would be a huge understatement, but my stops were well positioned, and working with good money management, and, my \"Trading Plan\", I remained in both trades albeit that they were both now loss trades having reversed position from before the data dump. Overnight Wednesday however, both trades pulled back once more and when I awoke on Thursday morning I was still  in two loss trades but now much smaller losses.</em>\n\n<em>On Thursday morning, I was still long the USD/JPY, and closed out a deal just before lunch-time on a pullback.....normally I would just let it go....but, I was a little bored.  About one hour later the USD strengthened like crazy, on the back of the USD/JPY taking aim for 100.00. My long USD CAD and USD CHF trades that were previously dead did a \"Lazarus\" and raced to great profitable positions. The AUD/USD and NZD/USD shorts from the previous night along with  GBP/USD and EUR/USD shorts that I had tweeted about that morning all came alive.....I jumped back in the USD/JPY as it exploded higher......and whoopee...the rest is history.</em>\n\n<em>All my trades from Wednesday night until Friday lunchtime were just all winners and big ones. All this success...but, we only really just tested the range limits, the major levels were tested but for me they held.</em>\n\nThose were my experiences and reactions over the past couple of days....probably very typical of many traders.\n\nAt the same time as trading I was watching CNBC (why...God only knows..it was about as relevant or useful as a chocolate teapot). I was listening on line to a webinar that had Fx content, reading charts, both candlestick and pressure charts and trying to monitor my trades to maximise the profit potential. In fact, on Thursday lunchtime just before the USD launched I was playing on Ebay and went into my trading room initially to check on my EUR/USD and GBP/USD short trades about one minute after the USD/JPY took off.....my timing was lucky.\n\nSo what am I saying this week?\n\nBasically, we had the chance to make a few pips in a trending market for 36 hours...but nothing else as levels basically held. The equity markets are still rising and whilst they are not turning lower  we will not see dramatic Forex moves to coincide.\n\nCan you just imagine what would happen if the equity markets pulled back?\n\nThe AUD/USD probed below parity yesterday but closed at 1.0021. The AUD/USD has failed to go up with the once tracked side by side relationship with the S&amp;P. As I have written on numerous occasions over the recent months the AUD/USD should be at record highs of 1.1500 or above to correlate with the S&amp;P all time highs. Instead as the S&amp;P hits all-time highs the AUD/USD probes below parity.  If the S&amp;P rolls over and pulls back, can you imagine where the AUD/USD will go? But we should not go there until the equity markets pullback, and, right now with the FED supporting the markets to the tune of $85 Billion per month that may still be a ways off, although I think that D-Day is getting much, much closer.\n\nKeys levels to watch for with the USD majors if equities roll over are in my opinion: -\n<p style=\"text-align: left; padding-left: 300px;\">EUR/USD: 1.2850 (Key support on measured move from wedge breakout)\nGBP/USD: 1.5250 (1.5350 (61.8% Fib.) was channel support for two months)\nAUD/USD: 99.00 (Key support from measured move on a Daily wedge breakout)\nNZD/USD: 0.8250 (Next support following Daily trend line breakdown)\nUSD/CAD: 1.0150 (Key resistance from previous break lower)\nUSD/CHF: 0.9650 (Fib. extension on Daily chart 161.8%)\nUSD/JPY: 102.50 (Fib. extension on Daily Chart 161.8%)</p>\nSo to sum up....equities need to roll over before we get carried away. The levels above are major levels to keep in mind.\n\nThe temptation to get \"Stuck in\" on USD strength may be a little  premature. Yesterday and Thursday offered large moves but I feel we may see some consolidation before the next move and I think for the move to hold water we will need to support of equities pulling back as well.\n\nDo not get carried away...there will be thousands of pips available when it happens.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>3. MY LONGER TERM TRADES:</strong></span>\n\nI have no open positions.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>4. LOOKING AHEAD INTO NEXT WEEK....THE MAJOR SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS:</strong></span>\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.2986.</strong></span>\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/EURUSD-240-11052013.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1733\" alt=\"EURUSD 240 11052013\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/EURUSD-240-11052013.png\" width=\"660\" /></a>\n\nAs you can see from the chart above. The wedge pattern has been broken and the measured move to the downside is 1.2850. The levels to watch next week are 1.2850 to 1.3050.\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.5359</strong></span>\n\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/GBPUSD-DAILY-11052013.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1734\" alt=\"GBPUSD DAILY 11052013\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/GBPUSD-DAILY-11052013-1024x571.png\" width=\"660\" /></a>\n\n1.5350 is a key support level for this pair and we pulled back to close at this level yesterday. !.5250 to 1.5500 is the range.\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>AUD/USD: Closing Price 1.0021</strong></span>\n\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/AUDUSD-DAILY-11052013.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1732\" alt=\"AUDUSD DAILY 11052013\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/AUDUSD-DAILY-11052013-1024x571.png\" width=\"660\" /></a>\n\nWow. This is the pair to closely watch. The range is now 0.9960, then 0.9900 (0.9850) up to 1.0115 resistance.\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8294</strong></span>\n\nIf 0.8250 gives way properly we will see 0.8000 pretty quickly. 0.8450 will offer good resistance.\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>USD/JPY: Closing Price 101.59</strong></span>\n\nThis pair is hard to read on levels. Basically, it is a runaway freight train. We should allow a little time to consolidate given the size of the recent move. I am thinking the range for now is 101.00 through to 102.50.\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.9567</strong></span>\n\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/USDCHF-DAILY-11052013.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1735\" alt=\"USDCHF DAILY 11052013\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/USDCHF-DAILY-11052013.png\" width=\"660\" /></a>\n\nThe range here is 0.9500 to 0.9650.\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.0097</strong></span>\n\nThe most frustrating pair in the Fx market for me. 0.9990 to 1.0150 needs to be broken for me to get interested gain. Remember, this pair has a lot of catching up to do given the fact it has hardly moved of late so when it moves it will be, or rather hopefully, it should be, spectacular.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>5. THE MAJOR FX NEWS EVENTS THIS WEEK:</strong></span>\n\nWEDNESDAY: GBP - Claimant Count, Inflation Report and Merv \"the Swerve\" is talking......\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>6. CLOSING THOUGHTS AND FINAL COMMENTS:</strong></span>\n\nThere are a few \"Code Red\" news events next week but only the UK employment data and Mervyn King\'s speech interest me.\n\nThere will be no Fx Drive-Thru next weekend as I will be traveling away from Montreal. Tweeting will be very limited if at all. Normal service will resume the week after next upon my return back home.\n\nBe careful, do not over trade until the market moves are confirmed. Expect a period of consolidation and at the same time do not be surprised if we see a lot of market volatility. Remember the commodity markets are acting poorly, Gold and Oil are struggling so these may influence moves that create false breakouts, be aware of this.\n\nGood luck and trade carefully,\n\nScott Pickering\nThe Pip Accumulator\nSaturday May 11th 2013.','NICE VOLATILITY IN FX.... BUT DO NOT GET CARRIED AWAY....YET!!','','inherit','open','closed','','1721-autosave-v1','','','2014-01-20 13:39:31','2014-01-20 18:39:31','',1721,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/1721-autosave-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(3064,16,'2014-01-20 13:39:56','2014-01-20 18:39:56','&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>1. INTRODUCTION:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nI hope that all you guys had a successful week of trading. There were certainly directional opportunities for all of us to profit from at the end of the week. Last week was my best week\'s trading year to date....thank God....because I was getting bored and I mean bored with the market. I was thinking of calling it an early close for the summer and taking an extended break.\r\n\r\nLots of pieces have been written about the dramatic moves seen over the last few days,  but really it was just a continuation of what was already developing in the markets. The inter-market correlations between Equities, Commodities, Bonds and Forex previously politely defined as \"stretched\" are now long gone, key relationships within specific markets were questionable.\r\n\r\nI have remained long the USD for a few weeks now and on Thursday the USD exploded on the back of the move towards 100.00 by the USD/JPY. The crazy thing was that \"Twitter\" went a little wild towards the end of the week with very high expectations on moves, and the  potential pip gains that were written about were incredible....I think that far too many fully leaded coffees were taken and no-one thought to try a de-caf!!\r\n\r\nThe RBA opened up talk of further weakness and rate cuts ahead on Tuesday night, then Wednesday night both the New Zealand and Australian Job numbers were blow outs, poo-pooing the previous nights comments a little. The RBNZ also said that it was openly interfering in the currency markets to weaken the New Zealand dollar.....well that\'s it they are all it.....so much liquidity we are going to drown as everywhere is flooded by central bank liquidity. Crazy times......\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>2 THE VIEW FROM MY TRADING DESK:</strong></span>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>NICE VOLATILITY IN FOREX....BUT DO NOT GET CARRIED AWAY....YET!!</strong></span></p>\r\nSo....it finally happened.\r\n\r\nThe break with correlations between markets finally gave us something that many people (myself included) have spoken or written about over the recent weeks. Personally, I do think that some people \"Lost the run of themselves\" by getting well carried away with predictions and pip moves. What we all do have to remember is that the Forex markets are flexing, as we had reached many break out scenarios at the same time, and correlations failed completely, but we did not break down. Major levels of support and resistance were tested and pierced but by the end of the week most currency pairs came back to key levels having just probed below or above trend lines.\r\n\r\nBelow is a snapshot of my experiences these past few days.....\r\n\r\n<em>Two news events in the week were high on my agenda, and still being long the USD, I went into both news events holding smallish positions. With both the AUD and NZD the employment data was better than the market predictions and both currencies strengthened on the news. (I had been short both the AUD/USD and NZD/USD from earlier in the week ahead of Tuesday night\'s RBA Interest Rate announcement). After the release of the Employment data on both occasions, to say that I was pist off would be a huge understatement, but my stops were well positioned, and working with good money management, and, my \"Trading Plan\", I remained in both trades albeit that they were both now loss trades having reversed position from before the data dump. Overnight Wednesday however, both trades pulled back once more and when I awoke on Thursday morning I was still  in two loss trades but now much smaller losses.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>On Thursday morning, I was still long the USD/JPY, and closed out a deal just before lunch-time on a pullback.....normally I would just let it go....but, I was a little bored.  About one hour later the USD strengthened like crazy, on the back of the USD/JPY taking aim for 100.00. My long USD CAD and USD CHF trades that were previously dead did a \"Lazarus\" and raced to great profitable positions. The AUD/USD and NZD/USD shorts from the previous night along with  GBP/USD and EUR/USD shorts that I had tweeted about that morning all came alive.....I jumped back in the USD/JPY as it exploded higher......and whoopee...the rest is history.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>All my trades from Wednesday night until Friday lunchtime were just all winners and big ones. All this success...but, we only really just tested the range limits, the major levels were tested but for me they held.</em>\r\n\r\nThose were my experiences and reactions over the past couple of days....probably very typical of many traders.\r\n\r\nAt the same time as trading I was watching CNBC (why...God only knows..it was about as relevant or useful as a chocolate teapot). I was listening on line to a webinar that had Fx content, reading charts, both candlestick and pressure charts and trying to monitor my trades to maximise the profit potential. In fact, on Thursday lunchtime just before the USD launched I was playing on Ebay and went into my trading room initially to check on my EUR/USD and GBP/USD short trades about one minute after the USD/JPY took off.....my timing was lucky.\r\n\r\nSo what am I saying this week?\r\n\r\nBasically, we had the chance to make a few pips in a trending market for 36 hours...but nothing else as levels basically held. The equity markets are still rising and whilst they are not turning lower  we will not see dramatic Forex moves to coincide.\r\n\r\nCan you just imagine what would happen if the equity markets pulled back?\r\n\r\nThe AUD/USD probed below parity yesterday but closed at 1.0021. The AUD/USD has failed to go up with the once tracked side by side relationship with the S&amp;P. As I have written on numerous occasions over the recent months the AUD/USD should be at record highs of 1.1500 or above to correlate with the S&amp;P all time highs. Instead as the S&amp;P hits all-time highs the AUD/USD probes below parity.  If the S&amp;P rolls over and pulls back, can you imagine where the AUD/USD will go? But we should not go there until the equity markets pullback, and, right now with the FED supporting the markets to the tune of $85 Billion per month that may still be a ways off, although I think that D-Day is getting much, much closer.\r\n\r\nKeys levels to watch for with the USD majors if equities roll over are in my opinion: -\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left; padding-left: 300px;\">EUR/USD: 1.2850 (Key support on measured move from wedge breakout)\r\nGBP/USD: 1.5250 (1.5350 (61.8% Fib.) was channel support for two months)\r\nAUD/USD: 99.00 (Key support from measured move on a Daily wedge breakout)\r\nNZD/USD: 0.8250 (Next support following Daily trend line breakdown)\r\nUSD/CAD: 1.0150 (Key resistance from previous break lower)\r\nUSD/CHF: 0.9650 (Fib. extension on Daily chart 161.8%)\r\nUSD/JPY: 102.50 (Fib. extension on Daily Chart 161.8%)</p>\r\nSo to sum up....equities need to roll over before we get carried away. The levels above are major levels to keep in mind.\r\n\r\nThe temptation to get \"Stuck in\" on USD strength may be a little  premature. Yesterday and Thursday offered large moves but I feel we may see some consolidation before the next move and I think for the move to hold water we will need to support of equities pulling back as well.\r\n\r\nDo not get carried away...there will be thousands of pips available when it happens.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>3. MY LONGER TERM TRADES:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nI have no open positions.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>4. LOOKING AHEAD INTO NEXT WEEK....THE MAJOR SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS:</strong></span>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.2986.</strong></span>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/EURUSD-240-11052013.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1733\" alt=\"EURUSD 240 11052013\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/EURUSD-240-11052013.png\" width=\"660\" /></a>\r\n\r\nAs you can see from the chart above. The wedge pattern has been broken and the measured move to the downside is 1.2850. The levels to watch next week are 1.2850 to 1.3050.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.5359</strong></span>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/GBPUSD-DAILY-11052013.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1734\" alt=\"GBPUSD DAILY 11052013\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/GBPUSD-DAILY-11052013.png\" width=\"660\" /></a>\r\n\r\n1.5350 is a key support level for this pair and we pulled back to close at this level yesterday. !.5250 to 1.5500 is the range.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>AUD/USD: Closing Price 1.0021</strong></span>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/AUDUSD-DAILY-11052013.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1732\" alt=\"AUDUSD DAILY 11052013\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/AUDUSD-DAILY-11052013.png\" width=\"660\" /></a>\r\n\r\nWow. This is the pair to closely watch. The range is now 0.9960, then 0.9900 (0.9850) up to 1.0115 resistance.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8294</strong></span>\r\n\r\nIf 0.8250 gives way properly we will see 0.8000 pretty quickly. 0.8450 will offer good resistance.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>USD/JPY: Closing Price 101.59</strong></span>\r\n\r\nThis pair is hard to read on levels. Basically, it is a runaway freight train. We should allow a little time to consolidate given the size of the recent move. I am thinking the range for now is 101.00 through to 102.50.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.9567</strong></span>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/USDCHF-DAILY-11052013.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1735\" alt=\"USDCHF DAILY 11052013\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/USDCHF-DAILY-11052013.png\" width=\"660\" /></a>\r\n\r\nThe range here is 0.9500 to 0.9650.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.0097</strong></span>\r\n\r\nThe most frustrating pair in the Fx market for me. 0.9990 to 1.0150 needs to be broken for me to get interested gain. Remember, this pair has a lot of catching up to do given the fact it has hardly moved of late so when it moves it will be, or rather hopefully, it should be, spectacular.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>5. THE MAJOR FX NEWS EVENTS THIS WEEK:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: GBP - Claimant Count, Inflation Report and Merv \"the Swerve\" is talking......\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>6. CLOSING THOUGHTS AND FINAL COMMENTS:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nThere are a few \"Code Red\" news events next week but only the UK employment data and Mervyn King\'s speech interest me.\r\n\r\nThere will be no Fx Drive-Thru next weekend as I will be traveling away from Montreal. Tweeting will be very limited if at all. Normal service will resume the week after next upon my return back home.\r\n\r\nBe careful, do not over trade until the market moves are confirmed. Expect a period of consolidation and at the same time do not be surprised if we see a lot of market volatility. Remember the commodity markets are acting poorly, Gold and Oil are struggling so these may influence moves that create false breakouts, be aware of this.\r\n\r\nGood luck and trade carefully,\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nSaturday May 11th 2013.','NICE VOLATILITY IN FX.... BUT DO NOT GET CARRIED AWAY....YET!!','','inherit','open','closed','','1721-revision-v1','','','2014-01-20 13:39:56','2014-01-20 18:39:56','',1721,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/1721-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(3065,16,'2014-01-20 13:43:46','2014-01-20 18:43:46','<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>1. INTRODUCTION:</strong></span>\n\nWhere the hell do I start this time........I feel like I have just completed 15 rounds with Mike Tyson and it\'s not pretty....not that I consider myself to have pretty boy looks at all but OMG \"Glaze my nipples and call me Rita\", what a roller coaster ride I have been on these past five days.\n\nI had a reasonable start to the week, then it all went pair shaped.....I bounced back to lose it all on NFP yesterday. I am still in trades right now as I type, but, I had the chance to exit everything yesterday morning, sit back have a glass of Pinot and reflect....that\'s too bloody easy....why not stay in trades I should have exited and then beat myself about the head with a ruler for an hour or so, it\'s far more therapeutic and less calories. Golden rule number one....the market rules and dictates movement not me. Lesson well learnt once more!\n\nI traded the AUD/USD mainly to the short side as my tweets and last week\'s blog refer. In addition, I hung on in there with the USD/CAD long and came within striking distance of an out, if I had only averaged my holding (hindsight is a powerful thing). I also made great pips out of selling the USD/JPY during the week. Plus the usual splattering of profits and losses on the EUR/USD and GBP/USD.\n\nBig news for me in the week.......The UK looks like it can see the \"Rim\" of the toilet once more some positive news for once, but from an Fx traders perspective just a greater opportunity to short at higher levels with an enhance risk/reward ratio...1.5600 is a tough old nut for this pair to crack. Helicopter Ben said bugger all about poor U.S. economic data at at the FOMC release last week and it looks that it was a good move given the employment data with the NFP release yesterday. My only gripe is that it\'s total fiction...how many people have dropped out of the system? It seems the U.S. obsession with group hugs and pats on the back will persist even though most people acknowledge that the numbers are total boll***s. Finally, last but not least...Draghi ( a Puppet of Berlin) had his ECB conference on Thursday with the usual how can I say what I\'ve said before a thousand times and make it sound different. Transitory...a great word of Ben\'s at the FED and accommodative another Ben word, he has now adopted as part of his language. Great stuff...what about helping the periphery? A rate cut of 0.25% hurrah! Three hip hip hoorays for Super Mario....In my mind too little far too late. Germany could not give a hairy rats a** about the periphery. Every time I look at EZ flag and its stars......they stand for core values such as \"Harmony\", \"Unity\" and \"Solidarity\" etc...it might in principle but as with everything in the EZ more BS.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>2. THE VIEW FROM MY TRADING DESK:</strong></span>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>MR. NOWOTNY...THE FIRST RULE OF A CURRENCY WAR...\"KEEP YOU GOB SHUT\"</strong></p>\nMy reason for picking this as a topic is that we are in strange times...despite all the denials from politicians (mind you half of them deny everything as a point of order, the rest, well most of them dont know what day it is never mind anything else!), country head leaders (Prime Ministers, Presidents) , the IMF, G7 &amp; G20 need I go on anymore......?   we are living slap bang in the middle of a currency war. The main goal of a currency war......weaken your currency to make exporting finished goods cheaper, whilst at the same time state publicly you like your currency strong as this message delivers ..Power, Stability, Control and Leadership to your voters, but in the background remember treat your currency as if its on sale!!\n\nThe  FED (USA) is the biggest currency manipulator in the world , Ben is pumping $85 Billion dollars per month into the markets to keep equities inflated and the US$ weaker (quantitive Easing). Not to be put off, the UK instead of calling their easing (QE)  refer to it as an Asset purchase Facility. The Swiss (SNB) has a 1.2000 peg in place on the EUR/CHF currency pair. The ECB has offered many options that are pseudo QE or an Asset Purchase but are sneaky backdoor facilities that have not really worked as the US$ facility is massive and outbids all other players, but the ECB is at it in their own slimy way. Enter the Dragon, yes the Chinese are at pegging their rates artificially against the US$ and now finally the Japanese are at it. Abe (New Prime Minister) and Kuroda (BOJ Governor) are on the biggest weakening in history to try to get inflation back into the Japanese markets (Target 2%) and at the same time buying bonds like it\'s a Wal-Mart sale to try and ease and weaken the YEN. It\'s working and the countries listed already are complaining saying its currency manipulation....oh yeah right...\"Pot calling the kettle black\".\n\nSo we have a currency war, everyone is in the game. As with everything out of the Eurozone there are so many players that consider themselves MVP\'s it is virtually impossible to contain all the ego\'s.\n\nEnter Ewald Nowotny (Governor of the Austrian Central Bank),\n\nGod love him.....he just loves getting his face on TV and his name in papers and on web sites, but  Nowotny really fu**ed up on Friday morning.\n\nDraghi comes from Italy, he knows life in the periphery......he is on a direct puppet like string to Merkel in Berlin. She pulls it and he does as he is told ( I use the puppet on a string picture rather than clips attached to his testicles and wired to the mains electric power, in case that caused offence).\n\nThere are 27 members from the overall EU on the board of the ECB. You can bet your bottom dollar that they have not all  been saying no move on interest rates for the past six months and although its one country one vote, Germany has one really big vote, and, to be honest it contributes the most to the Eurozone so why shouldn\'t it have a big vote. Over recent months despite growing economic concern over the increasingly poor data released within the Eurozone it has been able to keep interest rates unchanged.\n\nThis month however, with a very public run of poor data PMi\'s, GDP\'s and record unemployment to name but three subjects...the pressure to cut was too much to hold back.\n\nThis would mean that borrowing costs for the periphery would reduce and help them with exports over the medium term. At the Press Conference the questions this month were surprisingly more adventurous than usual and somebody piped up to ask Draghi what else was left in the tank from the perspective of keeping money in the high street banks to force them to lend to get markets moving and hopefully see a cut in the unemployment lines. To keep money in high street banks, instead of them depositing money with ECB an earning interest, the questioner raised the matter of charging the banks interest to deposit money with the ECB..termed negative interest rates. Draghi said basically in his way of saying things that nothing was off the table and that the ECB would remain open and accommodative, in fact \"The ECB was technically ready\".......great sign to  weaken the EUR/USD from high 1.3100\'s to mid 1.3000\'s in minutes happy days for me I was short.......nothing wrong with all this at all.....friendly banter I\'d call it!!\n\nMove forward 21 hours and god love the unfortunate Ewald Nowotny as he says on CNBC Europe with Geoff Cutmore (I like this guy, he is one of the very, very, very few on this channel I have any time of day for), there had been no discussions on \"Negative Interest Rates\" for banks depositing with the ECB....it\'s a difficult subject, one of many options, but not relevant in the near future...this subject is nothing but of short-term relevance. From 1.3050 these comments triggered a short covering rally to 1.3135 in the EUR/USD......\n\nThen \"Quelle surprise\"...three hours later Nowotny comes back to the media to say....\"You got me all wrong\".....\"How could you  interpret what I said the way you did\"...interesting. what he didn\'t say was that he probably had a phone call from Draghi and a severe boll**king along the lines of: - \"F**k you, you stupid Austrian Gob shi**, what the F**k are you doing, I spent yesterday trying to weaken this f***ing currency once and for all and you with the big gob Austrian Gob in two minutes this morning have just reversed all my good work\"\n\nIn the interim period between Nowotny\'s original statement and return to the media we also had Erkki Liikanen from the Finnish Central Bank say that \"Negative Interest\" rates have regularly been discussed as an option...which would backup Draghi from the Press Conference...this means this guy is good at knowing what to say in a currency war situation,or, he is just a bloody good a** licker!!\n\nThe bottom line......We are in a currency war Mr. Nowotny in case it slipped by you, you divvy.......the first rule of a currency war is to deny that there even is one but more importantly keep your gob shut. Every one point in the favour of your currency over the opposing one means millions of dollars in exporting prices alone. The EZ is f***ed and needs every little bit of help it can get right now. It\'s a classic, the ECB behaves like the politicians in the Eurozone in the sense that they just cannot get in line and be consistent. Someone always wants to get their 5 minutes of fame and the temptation to break rank is too much for most of them to take. In a currency war it just is not good enough.\n\nAs it happens, yesterday we saw blowout numbers on NFP and the USD weakened against everything eventually as equities leapt up like a salmon.........\n\nWhere does all this leave the trades of the EUR/USD?\n\nI think the pair will come under pressure next week as normality sets in once again and the Draghi press conference notes are re-read. Lets just hope Nowotny\'s quotes are taken as just that without substance to the move forward. Deep down, everyone knows it makes sense for the EUR/USD to be trading much, much lower towards 1.2000. It\'s a slower week on Eurozone news next week and given the macros on the EUR/USD I think that we will test 1.2950 at some time but first we have to break below the magnet that is 1.3000. We must also remember that the ECB is on a weaken the EURO trip right now so this should keep the pressure on to the down side plus there are already mutterings about another 0.25% cut by July......\n\nLonger term I still believe that the EUR/USD is heading to 1.1500-1.1800. The ECB and most of the EZ except Germany probably want this, but, the fall has to be an orderely decline over many months not a 1,000 pip drop in three weeks like the GBP/USD had recently. Watch this space.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>3. MY LONGER-TERM TRADES:</strong></span>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>AUD/USD</strong>\n<strong>Short</strong>\n<strong>40% position size</strong>\n<strong>Entry/ Cost Average: 1.0259</strong>\n<strong>Stop Loss: 1.0400</strong>\n<strong>Target/ Profit: 0.9800</strong>\n<strong>Closing Price: 1.0316</strong>\n<strong>Present Position: -58 pips</strong></p>\nI am still short this pair and have been for sometime now. My long term view is that this pair is still underperforming in relation to the S&amp;P, given that the equity markets are at all time highs one would expect to see this pair blasted through 1.1500 at the minimum, yet it has been struggling to get through 1.0400. This break from the usual correlation must NOT be ignored. Can you imagine what will happen with this pair should the equity markets pullback!!\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>NZD/USD</strong>\n<strong> Short </strong>\n<strong>20% position size </strong>\n<strong>Entry/ Cost Average: 0.8486</strong>\n<strong>Stop Loss: 0.8581</strong>\n<strong>Target/ Profit: 0.7800</strong>\n<strong>Closing Price: 0.8532</strong>\n<strong>Present Position: -48 pips</strong></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">I am not happy with this trade and I had the opportunity to get out yesterday with a small profit. Whilst I do feel that this pair is the most overpriced currency pair in the marketplace it has still held up incredibly well of late. I do believe that as the Aussie falls this pair will come screaming along with it and so I will not let this one run away too far.</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>USD/CAD</strong>\n<strong>Long</strong>\n<strong>20% position size</strong>\n<strong> Entry/ Cost Average: 1.1112</strong>\n<strong>Stop Loss: 1.0020 </strong>\n<strong>Target/ Profit: 1.0600</strong>\n<strong>Closing Price: 1.0076</strong>\n<strong>Present Position: --34 pips</strong></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">I am still long and have been now for over two weeks. I have taken profits off the table early on in this trade but it is an increasingly frustrating pair to trade. There are so many false hopes and it has been range trading for so long. I am confident that I am trading this pair the correct way for now, and, like the NZD/USD I will not let it run away from me.</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>EUR/USD </strong>\n<strong>Short</strong>\n<strong>20% position size </strong>\n<strong>Entry/ Cost Average: 1.3114</strong>\n<strong>Stop Loss: 1.3200</strong>\n<strong>Target/ Profit: 1.2650</strong>\n<strong>Closing Price: 1.3113 </strong>\n<strong>Present Position: -1 pip</strong></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">The macro fundamentals are lower for this pair and I am now cost averaged just above 1.3100. I will add only on confirmed breaks below 1.3000 and 1.2950.</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>GBP/USD </strong>\n<strong>Short </strong>\n<strong>20% position size </strong>\n<strong>Entry/ Cost Average: 1.5532</strong>\n<strong>Stop Loss: 1.5625</strong>\n<strong>Target/ Profit: 1.4800</strong>\n<strong>Closing Price: 1.5571</strong>\n<strong>Present Position: -41 pips</strong></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">1.5600 has seen to be a tough nut to crack. I am now cost averaged at 1.5532. Although we have some better economic data of late the underlying trend is lower.</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>4. LOOKING FORWARD...THE SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS IN THE COMING WEEK WITH THE USD MAJORS:</strong></span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3113.</strong> A bit of a roller coaster week although we really just range traded 1.2950 to 1.3280 all week. This is a very narrow trading range for this pair. Moving forward 1.2950 and 1.3250 needs to be broken to get a directional move going.</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1708\" alt=\"EURUSD MONTHLY 050513\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/EURUSD-MONTHLY-050513.png\" width=\"660\"/></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.5571.</strong> This pair has topped out at 1.5620 and this will be a tough nut to crack. 1.5600 has offered a great opportunity to get short over the past week, we are ready for a break out with this pair and whilst I think it will break lower, we need to break 1.5480 or 1.5620 to set up a direction.</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/GBPUSD-WEEKLY-05052013.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1709\" alt=\"GBPUSD WEEKLY 05052013\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/GBPUSD-WEEKLY-05052013-1024x571.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"571\" /></a></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>AUD/USD: Closing Price 1.0316.</strong> We are in a trading range of 1.0200 to 1.0400. We closed the week after record highs in the equity markets just above 1.0300, and, by coincidence the mid point of the trading range.</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/AUDUSD-240M-05052013.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1707\" alt=\"AUDUSD 240M 05052013\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/AUDUSD-240M-05052013.png\" width=\"660\" /></a></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8532</strong>. The trading range is 0.8400 to 0.8580. My bias is to the short side over the medium to the long term and if/when equities eventually fall so will this pair. Like the Aussie it is not bursting a gut to the upside like the equity markets but it is much stronger than the Aussie in comparison.</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>USD/JPY: Closing Price 98.99.</strong> I really do not know which way to approach this pair going forward. 100.00 is a bigger hurdle than most analysts thought that it was going to be. I feel certain that a break above 100.00 will catapult this pair to 105.00 very quickly but I have no confidence that 100.00 will be broken this coming week as there are no supportive news items to help. So, it is play the range again support at 97.00 to resistance at 99,60.</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.0076.</strong> This pair flatters to deceive, on a very regular basis. It needs a good breakout rather than the umpteen false breakouts seen of late over the past month or so. 1.0020 to 1.0260 is the range to follow.</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/USDCAD-MONTHLY-05052013.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1710\" alt=\"USDCAD MONTHLY 05052013\" src=\"http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/USDCAD-MONTHLY-05052013-1024x571.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"571\" /></a></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.9352.</strong> The range here is 0.9280 to 0,9410.</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>5. MAJOR NEWS EVENTS COMING UP THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:</strong></span></p>\nSUNDAY: AUD - Retail Sales.\nMONDAY: EUR - Draghi Speaks.\nMONDAY: CAD - Building Permits and Ivey PMi.\nMONDAY: AUD - Trade Balance.\n\nTUESDAY: AUD - RBA Statement and Cash Rate\n\nWEDNESDAY: NZD - Employment Change and Unemployment Rate.\nWEDNESDAY : CNY - CPi\n\nTHURSDAY: GBP - Bank Rate and Asset Purchase Facility.\nTHURSDAY: AUD - Monetary Policy Statement.\n\nFRIDAY: CAD - Employment Change and Unemployment Rate.\nFRIDAY: USD - Bernake Speaks.\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>6. FINAL COMMENTS AND CLOSING THOUGHTS:</strong></span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Although it is not as action packed a week as last week\'s there is still lots on the agenda. There are many pairs in breakout territory, GBP/USD and USD/CHF to name but two that are close, but the are others close as well like the EUR/USD  and the USD/CAD. Therefore, the bottom line is to be prepared and as one of  the pairs is the USD/CAD, be prepared for a false breakout either side.</p>\nPersonally, I intend to be less gun-ho this week and concentrate on my levels and targets.......\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Trade in line with your trade plan and keep within your money management guideliines....I intend to.</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Scott Pickering\nThe Pip Accumulator\nSaturday 4th May 2013.</p>','MR. NOWOTNY... THE FIRST RULE OF A CURRENCY WAR...\"KEEP YOUR GOB SHUT\"','','inherit','open','closed','','1683-autosave-v1','','','2014-01-20 13:43:46','2014-01-20 18:43:46','',1683,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/1683-autosave-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(3066,16,'2014-01-20 13:44:29','2014-01-20 18:44:29','<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>1. INTRODUCTION:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nWhere the hell do I start this time........I feel like I have just completed 15 rounds with Mike Tyson and it\'s not pretty....not that I consider myself to have pretty boy looks at all but OMG \"Glaze my nipples and call me Rita\", what a roller coaster ride I have been on these past five days.\r\n\r\nI had a reasonable start to the week, then it all went pair shaped.....I bounced back to lose it all on NFP yesterday. I am still in trades right now as I type, but, I had the chance to exit everything yesterday morning, sit back have a glass of Pinot and reflect....that\'s too bloody easy....why not stay in trades I should have exited and then beat myself about the head with a ruler for an hour or so, it\'s far more therapeutic and less calories. Golden rule number one....the market rules and dictates movement not me. Lesson well learnt once more!\r\n\r\nI traded the AUD/USD mainly to the short side as my tweets and last week\'s blog refer. In addition, I hung on in there with the USD/CAD long and came within striking distance of an out, if I had only averaged my holding (hindsight is a powerful thing). I also made great pips out of selling the USD/JPY during the week. Plus the usual splattering of profits and losses on the EUR/USD and GBP/USD.\r\n\r\nBig news for me in the week.......The UK looks like it can see the \"Rim\" of the toilet once more some positive news for once, but from an Fx traders perspective just a greater opportunity to short at higher levels with an enhance risk/reward ratio...1.5600 is a tough old nut for this pair to crack. Helicopter Ben said bugger all about poor U.S. economic data at at the FOMC release last week and it looks that it was a good move given the employment data with the NFP release yesterday. My only gripe is that it\'s total fiction...how many people have dropped out of the system? It seems the U.S. obsession with group hugs and pats on the back will persist even though most people acknowledge that the numbers are total boll***s. Finally, last but not least...Draghi ( a Puppet of Berlin) had his ECB conference on Thursday with the usual how can I say what I\'ve said before a thousand times and make it sound different. Transitory...a great word of Ben\'s at the FED and accommodative another Ben word, he has now adopted as part of his language. Great stuff...what about helping the periphery? A rate cut of 0.25% hurrah! Three hip hip hoorays for Super Mario....In my mind too little far too late. Germany could not give a hairy rats a** about the periphery. Every time I look at EZ flag and its stars......they stand for core values such as \"Harmony\", \"Unity\" and \"Solidarity\" etc...it might in principle but as with everything in the EZ more BS.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>2. THE VIEW FROM MY TRADING DESK:</strong></span>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>MR. NOWOTNY...THE FIRST RULE OF A CURRENCY WAR...\"KEEP YOU GOB SHUT\"</strong></p>\r\nMy reason for picking this as a topic is that we are in strange times...despite all the denials from politicians (mind you half of them deny everything as a point of order, the rest, well most of them dont know what day it is never mind anything else!), country head leaders (Prime Ministers, Presidents) , the IMF, G7 &amp; G20 need I go on anymore......?   we are living slap bang in the middle of a currency war. The main goal of a currency war......weaken your currency to make exporting finished goods cheaper, whilst at the same time state publicly you like your currency strong as this message delivers ..Power, Stability, Control and Leadership to your voters, but in the background remember treat your currency as if its on sale!!\r\n\r\nThe  FED (USA) is the biggest currency manipulator in the world , Ben is pumping $85 Billion dollars per month into the markets to keep equities inflated and the US$ weaker (quantitive Easing). Not to be put off, the UK instead of calling their easing (QE)  refer to it as an Asset purchase Facility. The Swiss (SNB) has a 1.2000 peg in place on the EUR/CHF currency pair. The ECB has offered many options that are pseudo QE or an Asset Purchase but are sneaky backdoor facilities that have not really worked as the US$ facility is massive and outbids all other players, but the ECB is at it in their own slimy way. Enter the Dragon, yes the Chinese are at pegging their rates artificially against the US$ and now finally the Japanese are at it. Abe (New Prime Minister) and Kuroda (BOJ Governor) are on the biggest weakening in history to try to get inflation back into the Japanese markets (Target 2%) and at the same time buying bonds like it\'s a Wal-Mart sale to try and ease and weaken the YEN. It\'s working and the countries listed already are complaining saying its currency manipulation....oh yeah right...\"Pot calling the kettle black\".\r\n\r\nSo we have a currency war, everyone is in the game. As with everything out of the Eurozone there are so many players that consider themselves MVP\'s it is virtually impossible to contain all the ego\'s.\r\n\r\nEnter Ewald Nowotny (Governor of the Austrian Central Bank),\r\n\r\nGod love him.....he just loves getting his face on TV and his name in papers and on web sites, but  Nowotny really fu**ed up on Friday morning.\r\n\r\nDraghi comes from Italy, he knows life in the periphery......he is on a direct puppet like string to Merkel in Berlin. She pulls it and he does as he is told ( I use the puppet on a string picture rather than clips attached to his testicles and wired to the mains electric power, in case that caused offence).\r\n\r\nThere are 27 members from the overall EU on the board of the ECB. You can bet your bottom dollar that they have not all  been saying no move on interest rates for the past six months and although its one country one vote, Germany has one really big vote, and, to be honest it contributes the most to the Eurozone so why shouldn\'t it have a big vote. Over recent months despite growing economic concern over the increasingly poor data released within the Eurozone it has been able to keep interest rates unchanged.\r\n\r\nThis month however, with a very public run of poor data PMi\'s, GDP\'s and record unemployment to name but three subjects...the pressure to cut was too much to hold back.\r\n\r\nThis would mean that borrowing costs for the periphery would reduce and help them with exports over the medium term. At the Press Conference the questions this month were surprisingly more adventurous than usual and somebody piped up to ask Draghi what else was left in the tank from the perspective of keeping money in the high street banks to force them to lend to get markets moving and hopefully see a cut in the unemployment lines. To keep money in high street banks, instead of them depositing money with ECB an earning interest, the questioner raised the matter of charging the banks interest to deposit money with the ECB..termed negative interest rates. Draghi said basically in his way of saying things that nothing was off the table and that the ECB would remain open and accommodative, in fact \"The ECB was technically ready\".......great sign to  weaken the EUR/USD from high 1.3100\'s to mid 1.3000\'s in minutes happy days for me I was short.......nothing wrong with all this at all.....friendly banter I\'d call it!!\r\n\r\nMove forward 21 hours and god love the unfortunate Ewald Nowotny as he says on CNBC Europe with Geoff Cutmore (I like this guy, he is one of the very, very, very few on this channel I have any time of day for), there had been no discussions on \"Negative Interest Rates\" for banks depositing with the ECB....it\'s a difficult subject, one of many options, but not relevant in the near future...this subject is nothing but of short-term relevance. From 1.3050 these comments triggered a short covering rally to 1.3135 in the EUR/USD......\r\n\r\nThen \"Quelle surprise\"...three hours later Nowotny comes back to the media to say....\"You got me all wrong\".....\"How could you  interpret what I said the way you did\"...interesting. what he didn\'t say was that he probably had a phone call from Draghi and a severe boll**king along the lines of: - \"F**k you, you stupid Austrian Gob shi**, what the F**k are you doing, I spent yesterday trying to weaken this f***ing currency once and for all and you with the big gob Austrian Gob in two minutes this morning have just reversed all my good work\"\r\n\r\nIn the interim period between Nowotny\'s original statement and return to the media we also had Erkki Liikanen from the Finnish Central Bank say that \"Negative Interest\" rates have regularly been discussed as an option...which would backup Draghi from the Press Conference...this means this guy is good at knowing what to say in a currency war situation,or, he is just a bloody good a** licker!!\r\n\r\nThe bottom line......We are in a currency war Mr. Nowotny in case it slipped by you, you divvy.......the first rule of a currency war is to deny that there even is one but more importantly keep your gob shut. Every one point in the favour of your currency over the opposing one means millions of dollars in exporting prices alone. The EZ is f***ed and needs every little bit of help it can get right now. It\'s a classic, the ECB behaves like the politicians in the Eurozone in the sense that they just cannot get in line and be consistent. Someone always wants to get their 5 minutes of fame and the temptation to break rank is too much for most of them to take. In a currency war it just is not good enough.\r\n\r\nAs it happens, yesterday we saw blowout numbers on NFP and the USD weakened against everything eventually as equities leapt up like a salmon.........\r\n\r\nWhere does all this leave the trades of the EUR/USD?\r\n\r\nI think the pair will come under pressure next week as normality sets in once again and the Draghi press conference notes are re-read. Lets just hope Nowotny\'s quotes are taken as just that without substance to the move forward. Deep down, everyone knows it makes sense for the EUR/USD to be trading much, much lower towards 1.2000. It\'s a slower week on Eurozone news next week and given the macros on the EUR/USD I think that we will test 1.2950 at some time but first we have to break below the magnet that is 1.3000. We must also remember that the ECB is on a weaken the EURO trip right now so this should keep the pressure on to the down side plus there are already mutterings about another 0.25% cut by July......\r\n\r\nLonger term I still believe that the EUR/USD is heading to 1.1500-1.1800. The ECB and most of the EZ except Germany probably want this, but, the fall has to be an orderely decline over many months not a 1,000 pip drop in three weeks like the GBP/USD had recently. Watch this space.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>3. MY LONGER-TERM TRADES:</strong></span>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>AUD/USD</strong>\r\n<strong>Short</strong>\r\n<strong>40% position size</strong>\r\n<strong>Entry/ Cost Average: 1.0259</strong>\r\n<strong>Stop Loss: 1.0400</strong>\r\n<strong>Target/ Profit: 0.9800</strong>\r\n<strong>Closing Price: 1.0316</strong>\r\n<strong>Present Position: -58 pips</strong></p>\r\nI am still short this pair and have been for sometime now. My long term view is that this pair is still underperforming in relation to the S&amp;P, given that the equity markets are at all time highs one would expect to see this pair blasted through 1.1500 at the minimum, yet it has been struggling to get through 1.0400. This break from the usual correlation must NOT be ignored. Can you imagine what will happen with this pair should the equity markets pullback!!\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>NZD/USD</strong>\r\n<strong> Short </strong>\r\n<strong>20% position size </strong>\r\n<strong>Entry/ Cost Average: 0.8486</strong>\r\n<strong>Stop Loss: 0.8581</strong>\r\n<strong>Target/ Profit: 0.7800</strong>\r\n<strong>Closing Price: 0.8532</strong>\r\n<strong>Present Position: -48 pips</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">I am not happy with this trade and I had the opportunity to get out yesterday with a small profit. Whilst I do feel that this pair is the most overpriced currency pair in the marketplace it has still held up incredibly well of late. I do believe that as the Aussie falls this pair will come screaming along with it and so I will not let this one run away too far.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>USD/CAD</strong>\r\n<strong>Long</strong>\r\n<strong>20% position size</strong>\r\n<strong> Entry/ Cost Average: 1.1112</strong>\r\n<strong>Stop Loss: 1.0020 </strong>\r\n<strong>Target/ Profit: 1.0600</strong>\r\n<strong>Closing Price: 1.0076</strong>\r\n<strong>Present Position: --34 pips</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">I am still long and have been now for over two weeks. I have taken profits off the table early on in this trade but it is an increasingly frustrating pair to trade. There are so many false hopes and it has been range trading for so long. I am confident that I am trading this pair the correct way for now, and, like the NZD/USD I will not let it run away from me.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>EUR/USD </strong>\r\n<strong>Short</strong>\r\n<strong>20% position size </strong>\r\n<strong>Entry/ Cost Average: 1.3114</strong>\r\n<strong>Stop Loss: 1.3200</strong>\r\n<strong>Target/ Profit: 1.2650</strong>\r\n<strong>Closing Price: 1.3113 </strong>\r\n<strong>Present Position: -1 pip</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">The macro fundamentals are lower for this pair and I am now cost averaged just above 1.3100. I will add only on confirmed breaks below 1.3000 and 1.2950.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>GBP/USD </strong>\r\n<strong>Short </strong>\r\n<strong>20% position size </strong>\r\n<strong>Entry/ Cost Average: 1.5532</strong>\r\n<strong>Stop Loss: 1.5625</strong>\r\n<strong>Target/ Profit: 1.4800</strong>\r\n<strong>Closing Price: 1.5571</strong>\r\n<strong>Present Position: -41 pips</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">1.5600 has seen to be a tough nut to crack. I am now cost averaged at 1.5532. Although we have some better economic data of late the underlying trend is lower.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>4. LOOKING FORWARD...THE SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS IN THE COMING WEEK WITH THE USD MAJORS:</strong></span></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3113.</strong> A bit of a roller coaster week although we really just range traded 1.2950 to 1.3280 all week. This is a very narrow trading range for this pair. Moving forward 1.2950 and 1.3250 needs to be broken to get a directional move going.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1708\" alt=\"EURUSD MONTHLY 050513\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/EURUSD-MONTHLY-050513.png\" width=\"660\"/></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.5571.</strong> This pair has topped out at 1.5620 and this will be a tough nut to crack. 1.5600 has offered a great opportunity to get short over the past week, we are ready for a break out with this pair and whilst I think it will break lower, we need to break 1.5480 or 1.5620 to set up a direction.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/GBPUSD-WEEKLY-05052013.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1709\" alt=\"GBPUSD WEEKLY 05052013\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/GBPUSD-WEEKLY-05052013.png\" width=\"660\"/></a></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>AUD/USD: Closing Price 1.0316.</strong> We are in a trading range of 1.0200 to 1.0400. We closed the week after record highs in the equity markets just above 1.0300, and, by coincidence the mid point of the trading range.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/AUDUSD-240M-05052013.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1707\" alt=\"AUDUSD 240M 05052013\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/AUDUSD-240M-05052013.png\" width=\"660\" /></a></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8532</strong>. The trading range is 0.8400 to 0.8580. My bias is to the short side over the medium to the long term and if/when equities eventually fall so will this pair. Like the Aussie it is not bursting a gut to the upside like the equity markets but it is much stronger than the Aussie in comparison.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>USD/JPY: Closing Price 98.99.</strong> I really do not know which way to approach this pair going forward. 100.00 is a bigger hurdle than most analysts thought that it was going to be. I feel certain that a break above 100.00 will catapult this pair to 105.00 very quickly but I have no confidence that 100.00 will be broken this coming week as there are no supportive news items to help. So, it is play the range again support at 97.00 to resistance at 99,60.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.0076.</strong> This pair flatters to deceive, on a very regular basis. It needs a good breakout rather than the umpteen false breakouts seen of late over the past month or so. 1.0020 to 1.0260 is the range to follow.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/USDCAD-MONTHLY-05052013.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1710\" alt=\"USDCAD MONTHLY 05052013\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/USDCAD-MONTHLY-05052013.png\" width=\"660\" /></a></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.9352.</strong> The range here is 0.9280 to 0,9410.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>5. MAJOR NEWS EVENTS COMING UP THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:</strong></span></p>\r\nSUNDAY: AUD - Retail Sales.\r\nMONDAY: EUR - Draghi Speaks.\r\nMONDAY: CAD - Building Permits and Ivey PMi.\r\nMONDAY: AUD - Trade Balance.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: AUD - RBA Statement and Cash Rate\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: NZD - Employment Change and Unemployment Rate.\r\nWEDNESDAY : CNY - CPi\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: GBP - Bank Rate and Asset Purchase Facility.\r\nTHURSDAY: AUD - Monetary Policy Statement.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: CAD - Employment Change and Unemployment Rate.\r\nFRIDAY: USD - Bernake Speaks.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>6. FINAL COMMENTS AND CLOSING THOUGHTS:</strong></span></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Although it is not as action packed a week as last week\'s there is still lots on the agenda. There are many pairs in breakout territory, GBP/USD and USD/CHF to name but two that are close, but the are others close as well like the EUR/USD  and the USD/CAD. Therefore, the bottom line is to be prepared and as one of  the pairs is the USD/CAD, be prepared for a false breakout either side.</p>\r\nPersonally, I intend to be less gun-ho this week and concentrate on my levels and targets.......\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Trade in line with your trade plan and keep within your money management guideliines....I intend to.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Scott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nSaturday 4th May 2013.</p>','MR. NOWOTNY... THE FIRST RULE OF A CURRENCY WAR...\"KEEP YOUR GOB SHUT\"','','inherit','open','closed','','1683-revision-v1','','','2014-01-20 13:44:29','2014-01-20 18:44:29','',1683,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/1683-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(3067,16,'2014-01-20 13:47:09','2014-01-20 18:47:09','<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>1. INTRODUCTION:</strong></span>\n\nLast week was a very interesting week for me. I traded very heavily on Monday (The largest trade sizes of 2013 so far), mainly the commodity currencies that dropped on the back of the metal meltdown of Gold, Silver and Copper. Do not forget WTi as well. The NZD/USD, in particular I hammered short. I even tried the USD/JPY short for a few pips. I kept faith with the commodity currencies towards the end of the week;  AUD/USD and NZD/USD short and the USD/CAD long. Good pip profits...happy days!!\n\nThe continual weakness in copper is fascinating me. I do feel that we are seeing an end to the bullish run in equities. We are certainly seeing lower daily highs, this is telling. Maybe the U.S. traders daily routine of buy in the morning on dips and sell later on in the afternoon is coming to an end. If equities do start to roll over the AUD/USD will drop like a bat out of hell. I will re-enter long the USD on pullbacks in the three commodity currencies mentioned already as early next week as possible.\n\nIn the news; Gold finally falls, or should I say collapses. It\'s been threatening this drop for sometime, and after a little consolidation period, I believe the downside move will start again. Next time I believe $1,300 per troy ounce is in the mix and possibly even lower to maybe $1,100. Then we had Fitch\'s downgrade of UK debt, following the move made sometime ago by S&amp;P. Earlier in the week Egan-Jones downgraded German credit rating from A+ to A on the basis that there is a lack of will to stimulate the Eurozone.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>2. THE VIEW FROM MY TRADING DESK:</strong></span>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>THE EUROZONE.... WHAT A MESS; I JUST DON\'T GET IT...THE POLITICIANS MAKE IT WORSE</strong></p>\nThis is the fifth week on the run that I have written my main blog piece about the Eurozone.....you should not be surprised.\n\nI am just gobsmacked that no matter what happens news wise in the Eurozone the opportunity to control the response is always screwed up because so many people want a say on the subject matter. That would be fine, but the conflicts and difference of opinions from the finance ministers, country leaders and ECB members, (whilst in the initial stages were seen as a strength are now a just a huge...massive weakness) just mislead the markets and fundamentally create confusion. If the Eurozone needed confusion to operate effectively rather than clarity, it would be the most efficient trading and economic area in the world. Instead we have the total opposite...a clumsy combination of inept politicians who, if were locked in the Guinness brewery on a Friday night, left over the weekend and when you called back on Monday morning they would all be stone cold sober!!  The way the press statements, media sound bytes and twitter comments break to the market creates confusion and as we all  know the markets hate confusion. As traders we sometimes like confusion because it can help with creating volatility that can help us with trades. However, if you are  longer term traders, you really want a trend and the Eurozone does not deliver this and if you examine moves in the EUR/USD so many a sharp spikes either up or down reacting to political statements. It makes the EUR/USD difficult to trade at times.\n\nThis week.....Cyprus, Slovenia, Italy, Spain and Germany all hit the headlines for various reasons. Only 5 out of 17 member countries in the news this week on major headlines..... not bad for the Eurozone. Add to this the start of the build up to the next ECB press conference with the riddles about rate cuts being on or off. and it all creates more volatility and spikes higher and lower.\n\nI blogged a couple of times about the last ECB press conference and how disappointed I was with Draghi\'s performance, in fact, I believed he was less than truthful with the press. He looked very uncomfortable at all times. Allegedly, there were no discussions on interest rates. Yesterday, both Wolfgang Schauble (German Finance Minister) and Jens Wiedmann (German Bundesbank President and member of the ECB Governing Council) continued the press releases that started on Wednesday by Wiedmann, over whether or not the EUR/USD was trading at appropriate levels and whether or not the ECB interest rate should be cut from its present 0.75%. These releases caused spikes higher in the EUR/USD.\n\nI tweeted yesterday that 1.3125 was a great place to short on a spike high. If you did this you could be +75 pips up as the EUR/USD fell back into downward trend and ended the day at 1.3048. If you think about this discussion on interest rates, the same happened last month, yet we were told there was no discussion at the ECB meeting prior to the press conference...yeah right.... complete bulls**t from Draghi and the press and markets bought it...numpties!!\n\nThe bottom line i,s as I have tweeted this past week is......there is no good news in the Eurozone. It continues to deliver poor economic data after poor economic data and the politicians in conjunction with Draghi simply do not know how to plan to minimise the effect or more importantly provide a credible action plan on how they are going to tackle the problem and what measures if any they can implement to rectify. I know Draghi has his EFSF, OMT etc etc. These do nothing for the day to day management of trying to get growth into an economy.\n\nCyprus, Greece and Slovenian banks are down the \"Swanee River\" without a paddle...... Remember that the non existant.....but it is definitely there.... \"Bail-in\" template that  is not yet gathering dust from the Cyprus f**k up will be out again soon ... The banking problems in these countries are way above the Politicians who are about as useful as a chocolate teapot.....completely helpless.\n\nUnpaid regional debt bills in Spain are rising, it is now at Euro 42 million, with the Madrid region number one on the charts of worst offender, replacing Catalonia. As Jack Nicholson says...\"Somethings Gotta Give\". As I have blogged and tweeted for over a year now, Spain is going to pull the Eurozone apart. Politicians are in complete denial. Rahoy (The Spanish Prime Minister) has a massive social debt burden and there is no way can he bail out the regions.\n\nThen there is the fall out from the Italian election. It seems like they were held years ago, not months, given the amount of time this story has been around. Yesterday, the fourth election to find a president (not a government leader) ended in failure......rumours of various politicians resigning followed. This is boring, boring, boring and another election will probably be the outcome....eventually that is. Politicians cannot agree on a way forward with \"The Clown\" in particular wanting nothing of a coalition. Plus nobody wants to work with Togaman (Berlusconni).\n\nFinally, Germany.....Egan-Jones downgrades German credit on the fact it has \"No will\" to stimulate the Eurozone. At last the feck**g truth for once. Germany, could not give a hairy rats ass about stimulating growth in the periphery. This is the fundamental problem in the Eurozone right now......austerity is not working, and, without Germany on board with stimulus growth policies, we will watch the Eurozone limp from one calamity to the next. The German politicians have laughed off  this downgrade, they are not interested or concerned and because they are Germany, \'numero uno in the Eurozone no tin pot U.S. rating agency is going to tell them the error of their ways...... they are not moved on this subject and they will not change direction.\n\nSo with all this being laid out on a table in front of us as traders, how do we trade?\n\nI firmly believe that the Eurozone is like a dysfunctional family, and, it is only heading one way....lower. Should a rate cut to 0.50% be in the offing this will further send the single currency lower (weaker). The EUR/USD is only really at the 1.3000-1.3150 level because of FED action supporting U.S. equity markets to the tune of $85 Billion per month. Can you imagine if equities start to roll over and the ECB cut rates...where does that leave the EUR/USD?\n\nMy targets on the EUR/USD are as follows: -\n<ul>\n	<li>\n<div style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">The continual weakness in the EUR/USD from the day to day country issues: I see a test of 1.2950 first and if we break this level I see a test of 1.2750 next.</div></li>\n	<li>\n<div style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">Equity markets correct and pullback. The S&amp;P below 1530 is key, if we see a 10% pullback: 1.2750 will come into view quicker. Then a test of 1.2650 should be on the cards.</div></li>\n	<li>\n<div style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">An ECB rate cut in addition to the above: Over a period of two/three months I think a test of 1.2000-1.2250 This is potentially a 1,000 pip move from current levels but the Eurozone is in such poor shape the Monthly long term chart trend line could be tested in the longer term.</div></li>\n</ul>\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>3. MY LONGER TERM TRADES:</strong></span>\n\nI have no long term trades in play at the moment.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>4. LOOKING FORWARD...THE KEY SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS I WILL BE LOOKING FOR WITH THE USD MAJORS.</strong></span>\n\n<strong>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3048.</strong> We are in a trading range effectively from 1.2950 to 1.3200......although towards the end of the week the resistance level seemed to be a little lower at 1.3125.\n\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/EURUSD-MONTHLY-200413.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1651\" alt=\"EURUSD MONTHLY  200413\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/EURUSD-MONTHLY-200413.png\" width=\"660\"  /></a>\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<strong>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.5226.</strong> The Fitch debt downgrade yesterday brought the support level lower in this pair from 1.5250. This level will act as resistance over the next day or so. In recent times the markets have dismissed the credit agencies as pointless behind the event companies with their gradings so do not be surprised if the European market on Monday morning shrugs off this downgrade and the GBP rallies a little. Bear in mind 99% of news from the UK is poor so I think we are heading lower. If the EUR/USD heads lower the GBP/USD will come lower screaming and complaining. The only caveat I have is that the \"Cross-Rate\" effects are being felt much more than usual. The commodity weaknesses are the main reason and the GBP/CAD, GBP/AUD and GBP/NZD are all playing their part in maybe restricting the moves in the USD majors. That said the levels to watch going forward are 1.5150 to 1.5420.\n\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/GBPUSD-WEEKLY-200413.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1650\" alt=\"GBPUSD WEEKLY 200413\" src=\"http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/GBPUSD-WEEKLY-200413-1024x571.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"571\" /></a>\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<strong>AUD/USD: Closing Price 1.0275.</strong> We sit at a key line in the sand level. 1.0280 is a key support level....we are there. If we continue lower, we will soon be testing 1.0150 then parity. There are many factors that can send this pair lower, Copper, Equity market weakness, Gold, China economic data, RBA interest rate policy to name but a few. Personally, I do see this pair trading sub parity and the calls for 1.0800 and above that I have read from time to time should have happened by now given the rise in the Dow Jones and S&amp;P to record highs. Quite frankly, the AUD/USD should have been at 1.1500 given the equity markets rise. In reality we have struggled to beat 1.0580. Therefore my bias is lower.....there are many pips to be made, you just need to be patient. The range that I will be looking at is 1.0150 to 1.0400.\n\n<strong>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8412.</strong> We closed just above key 0.8400 support. The range that interests me is 0.8350 to 0.8510.\n\n<strong>USD/JPY: Closing Price 99.47.</strong> The Abe-Kuroda show continues. One minute I read that\'s it...no more weakening...\"We have gone far enough\".....then it\'s a pullback to 95.80. Next we had turncoat Christine Lagard (DSK\'s replacement as head of the IMF) contradicting an unnamed spokesperson from Washington saying that Japan should play by the G7-G20 rules and stop deliberately weakening the Yen. The USD/JPY strengthened on the Washington press release and then after Lagarde\'s news conference the Yen weakened, and to add fuel to the fire Kuroda popped up out of the blue to say....\"We are still weakening......we have our targets/objectives to meet\". The upshot of all this is that the USD/JPY weakened into the weekend and closed at 99.47, in striking distance of 100.00 once again. Don\'t stand in front of the runaway train is a statement worth noting.....I do think that if we break 100.00 I am very tempted to say that 105.00 could be on the cards. Certainly, I think the momentum over 100.00 will push this pair towards 101.00 quite quickly. Will we break 100.00? is the question. The range I am looking at is 98.50 to 100.00 in the short term.\n\n<strong>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.0263.</strong> We are at the point of a breakout with this pair. The only problem is we have been here before and failed. Critical resistance is 1.0340. A break through this level and my thoughts are looking towards 1.0500-1.0600. Support is 1.0190 then 1.0150.\n\n<strong>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.9337.</strong> I was sitting with my fingers on the button Friday to get long this pair. There is an inverted Head and Shoulders pattern  in play if the neckline of 0.9340 is broken. The measured move on a neckline break is to target 0.9480. Support is good at 0.9280.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>5. MAJOR  FOREX NEWS EVENTS COMING UP THIS NEXT WEEK:</strong></span>\n\nMONDAY: CNY - HSBC Flash manufacturing PMi.\n\nTUESDAY: EUR - French and German Flash Manufacturing PMi.\nTUESDAY: NZD - RBNZ Interest Rate Decision and Statement.\n\nTHURSDAY/FRIDAY: JPY - BOJ Press Conference and Monetary Policy Statement\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>6. CLOSING THOUGHTS AND FINAL COMMENTS:</strong></span>\n\nWhilst it may look a little light on news events next week, we are at yet another crossroad in the markets both Equity and Forex, and, in addition, many major pairs are at key support or near resistance levels. I see the USD only getting stronger as the weeks roll by, given the weakness in metals and the commodity currencies. As I have said many, many times before.....commodities lead the way, then bonds, and equities are nearly always the last to arrive at the party. We have not had the usual inter market correlations in place for quite sometime now and I really feel a sentiment change is a-foot...so be careful, moves could be dramatic and telling.\n\nTrade lean and mean with wider stops, smaller position sizes and operate within your trading plan.\n\nGood luck,\n\nScott Pickering\nThe Pip Accumulator\nSaturday 20th April 2013','THE EUROZONE....WHAT A MESS; I JUST DON\'T GET IT... THE POLITICIANS MAKE IT WORSE','','inherit','open','closed','','1637-autosave-v1','','','2014-01-20 13:47:09','2014-01-20 18:47:09','',1637,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/1637-autosave-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(3068,16,'2014-01-20 13:47:33','2014-01-20 18:47:33','<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>1. INTRODUCTION:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nLast week was a very interesting week for me. I traded very heavily on Monday (The largest trade sizes of 2013 so far), mainly the commodity currencies that dropped on the back of the metal meltdown of Gold, Silver and Copper. Do not forget WTi as well. The NZD/USD, in particular I hammered short. I even tried the USD/JPY short for a few pips. I kept faith with the commodity currencies towards the end of the week;  AUD/USD and NZD/USD short and the USD/CAD long. Good pip profits...happy days!!\r\n\r\nThe continual weakness in copper is fascinating me. I do feel that we are seeing an end to the bullish run in equities. We are certainly seeing lower daily highs, this is telling. Maybe the U.S. traders daily routine of buy in the morning on dips and sell later on in the afternoon is coming to an end. If equities do start to roll over the AUD/USD will drop like a bat out of hell. I will re-enter long the USD on pullbacks in the three commodity currencies mentioned already as early next week as possible.\r\n\r\nIn the news; Gold finally falls, or should I say collapses. It\'s been threatening this drop for sometime, and after a little consolidation period, I believe the downside move will start again. Next time I believe $1,300 per troy ounce is in the mix and possibly even lower to maybe $1,100. Then we had Fitch\'s downgrade of UK debt, following the move made sometime ago by S&amp;P. Earlier in the week Egan-Jones downgraded German credit rating from A+ to A on the basis that there is a lack of will to stimulate the Eurozone.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>2. THE VIEW FROM MY TRADING DESK:</strong></span>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>THE EUROZONE.... WHAT A MESS; I JUST DON\'T GET IT...THE POLITICIANS MAKE IT WORSE</strong></p>\r\nThis is the fifth week on the run that I have written my main blog piece about the Eurozone.....you should not be surprised.\r\n\r\nI am just gobsmacked that no matter what happens news wise in the Eurozone the opportunity to control the response is always screwed up because so many people want a say on the subject matter. That would be fine, but the conflicts and difference of opinions from the finance ministers, country leaders and ECB members, (whilst in the initial stages were seen as a strength are now a just a huge...massive weakness) just mislead the markets and fundamentally create confusion. If the Eurozone needed confusion to operate effectively rather than clarity, it would be the most efficient trading and economic area in the world. Instead we have the total opposite...a clumsy combination of inept politicians who, if were locked in the Guinness brewery on a Friday night, left over the weekend and when you called back on Monday morning they would all be stone cold sober!!  The way the press statements, media sound bytes and twitter comments break to the market creates confusion and as we all  know the markets hate confusion. As traders we sometimes like confusion because it can help with creating volatility that can help us with trades. However, if you are  longer term traders, you really want a trend and the Eurozone does not deliver this and if you examine moves in the EUR/USD so many a sharp spikes either up or down reacting to political statements. It makes the EUR/USD difficult to trade at times.\r\n\r\nThis week.....Cyprus, Slovenia, Italy, Spain and Germany all hit the headlines for various reasons. Only 5 out of 17 member countries in the news this week on major headlines..... not bad for the Eurozone. Add to this the start of the build up to the next ECB press conference with the riddles about rate cuts being on or off. and it all creates more volatility and spikes higher and lower.\r\n\r\nI blogged a couple of times about the last ECB press conference and how disappointed I was with Draghi\'s performance, in fact, I believed he was less than truthful with the press. He looked very uncomfortable at all times. Allegedly, there were no discussions on interest rates. Yesterday, both Wolfgang Schauble (German Finance Minister) and Jens Wiedmann (German Bundesbank President and member of the ECB Governing Council) continued the press releases that started on Wednesday by Wiedmann, over whether or not the EUR/USD was trading at appropriate levels and whether or not the ECB interest rate should be cut from its present 0.75%. These releases caused spikes higher in the EUR/USD.\r\n\r\nI tweeted yesterday that 1.3125 was a great place to short on a spike high. If you did this you could be +75 pips up as the EUR/USD fell back into downward trend and ended the day at 1.3048. If you think about this discussion on interest rates, the same happened last month, yet we were told there was no discussion at the ECB meeting prior to the press conference...yeah right.... complete bulls**t from Draghi and the press and markets bought it...numpties!!\r\n\r\nThe bottom line i,s as I have tweeted this past week is......there is no good news in the Eurozone. It continues to deliver poor economic data after poor economic data and the politicians in conjunction with Draghi simply do not know how to plan to minimise the effect or more importantly provide a credible action plan on how they are going to tackle the problem and what measures if any they can implement to rectify. I know Draghi has his EFSF, OMT etc etc. These do nothing for the day to day management of trying to get growth into an economy.\r\n\r\nCyprus, Greece and Slovenian banks are down the \"Swanee River\" without a paddle...... Remember that the non existant.....but it is definitely there.... \"Bail-in\" template that  is not yet gathering dust from the Cyprus f**k up will be out again soon ... The banking problems in these countries are way above the Politicians who are about as useful as a chocolate teapot.....completely helpless.\r\n\r\nUnpaid regional debt bills in Spain are rising, it is now at Euro 42 million, with the Madrid region number one on the charts of worst offender, replacing Catalonia. As Jack Nicholson says...\"Somethings Gotta Give\". As I have blogged and tweeted for over a year now, Spain is going to pull the Eurozone apart. Politicians are in complete denial. Rahoy (The Spanish Prime Minister) has a massive social debt burden and there is no way can he bail out the regions.\r\n\r\nThen there is the fall out from the Italian election. It seems like they were held years ago, not months, given the amount of time this story has been around. Yesterday, the fourth election to find a president (not a government leader) ended in failure......rumours of various politicians resigning followed. This is boring, boring, boring and another election will probably be the outcome....eventually that is. Politicians cannot agree on a way forward with \"The Clown\" in particular wanting nothing of a coalition. Plus nobody wants to work with Togaman (Berlusconni).\r\n\r\nFinally, Germany.....Egan-Jones downgrades German credit on the fact it has \"No will\" to stimulate the Eurozone. At last the feck**g truth for once. Germany, could not give a hairy rats ass about stimulating growth in the periphery. This is the fundamental problem in the Eurozone right now......austerity is not working, and, without Germany on board with stimulus growth policies, we will watch the Eurozone limp from one calamity to the next. The German politicians have laughed off  this downgrade, they are not interested or concerned and because they are Germany, \'numero uno in the Eurozone no tin pot U.S. rating agency is going to tell them the error of their ways...... they are not moved on this subject and they will not change direction.\r\n\r\nSo with all this being laid out on a table in front of us as traders, how do we trade?\r\n\r\nI firmly believe that the Eurozone is like a dysfunctional family, and, it is only heading one way....lower. Should a rate cut to 0.50% be in the offing this will further send the single currency lower (weaker). The EUR/USD is only really at the 1.3000-1.3150 level because of FED action supporting U.S. equity markets to the tune of $85 Billion per month. Can you imagine if equities start to roll over and the ECB cut rates...where does that leave the EUR/USD?\r\n\r\nMy targets on the EUR/USD are as follows: -\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>\r\n<div style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">The continual weakness in the EUR/USD from the day to day country issues: I see a test of 1.2950 first and if we break this level I see a test of 1.2750 next.</div></li>\r\n	<li>\r\n<div style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">Equity markets correct and pullback. The S&amp;P below 1530 is key, if we see a 10% pullback: 1.2750 will come into view quicker. Then a test of 1.2650 should be on the cards.</div></li>\r\n	<li>\r\n<div style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">An ECB rate cut in addition to the above: Over a period of two/three months I think a test of 1.2000-1.2250 This is potentially a 1,000 pip move from current levels but the Eurozone is in such poor shape the Monthly long term chart trend line could be tested in the longer term.</div></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>3. MY LONGER TERM TRADES:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nI have no long term trades in play at the moment.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>4. LOOKING FORWARD...THE KEY SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS I WILL BE LOOKING FOR WITH THE USD MAJORS.</strong></span>\r\n\r\n<strong>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3048.</strong> We are in a trading range effectively from 1.2950 to 1.3200......although towards the end of the week the resistance level seemed to be a little lower at 1.3125.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/EURUSD-MONTHLY-200413.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1651\" alt=\"EURUSD MONTHLY  200413\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/EURUSD-MONTHLY-200413.png\" width=\"660\"  /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.5226.</strong> The Fitch debt downgrade yesterday brought the support level lower in this pair from 1.5250. This level will act as resistance over the next day or so. In recent times the markets have dismissed the credit agencies as pointless behind the event companies with their gradings so do not be surprised if the European market on Monday morning shrugs off this downgrade and the GBP rallies a little. Bear in mind 99% of news from the UK is poor so I think we are heading lower. If the EUR/USD heads lower the GBP/USD will come lower screaming and complaining. The only caveat I have is that the \"Cross-Rate\" effects are being felt much more than usual. The commodity weaknesses are the main reason and the GBP/CAD, GBP/AUD and GBP/NZD are all playing their part in maybe restricting the moves in the USD majors. That said the levels to watch going forward are 1.5150 to 1.5420.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/GBPUSD-WEEKLY-200413.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1650\" alt=\"GBPUSD WEEKLY 200413\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/GBPUSD-WEEKLY-200413.png\" width=\"660\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>AUD/USD: Closing Price 1.0275.</strong> We sit at a key line in the sand level. 1.0280 is a key support level....we are there. If we continue lower, we will soon be testing 1.0150 then parity. There are many factors that can send this pair lower, Copper, Equity market weakness, Gold, China economic data, RBA interest rate policy to name but a few. Personally, I do see this pair trading sub parity and the calls for 1.0800 and above that I have read from time to time should have happened by now given the rise in the Dow Jones and S&amp;P to record highs. Quite frankly, the AUD/USD should have been at 1.1500 given the equity markets rise. In reality we have struggled to beat 1.0580. Therefore my bias is lower.....there are many pips to be made, you just need to be patient. The range that I will be looking at is 1.0150 to 1.0400.\r\n\r\n<strong>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8412.</strong> We closed just above key 0.8400 support. The range that interests me is 0.8350 to 0.8510.\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/JPY: Closing Price 99.47.</strong> The Abe-Kuroda show continues. One minute I read that\'s it...no more weakening...\"We have gone far enough\".....then it\'s a pullback to 95.80. Next we had turncoat Christine Lagard (DSK\'s replacement as head of the IMF) contradicting an unnamed spokesperson from Washington saying that Japan should play by the G7-G20 rules and stop deliberately weakening the Yen. The USD/JPY strengthened on the Washington press release and then after Lagarde\'s news conference the Yen weakened, and to add fuel to the fire Kuroda popped up out of the blue to say....\"We are still weakening......we have our targets/objectives to meet\". The upshot of all this is that the USD/JPY weakened into the weekend and closed at 99.47, in striking distance of 100.00 once again. Don\'t stand in front of the runaway train is a statement worth noting.....I do think that if we break 100.00 I am very tempted to say that 105.00 could be on the cards. Certainly, I think the momentum over 100.00 will push this pair towards 101.00 quite quickly. Will we break 100.00? is the question. The range I am looking at is 98.50 to 100.00 in the short term.\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.0263.</strong> We are at the point of a breakout with this pair. The only problem is we have been here before and failed. Critical resistance is 1.0340. A break through this level and my thoughts are looking towards 1.0500-1.0600. Support is 1.0190 then 1.0150.\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.9337.</strong> I was sitting with my fingers on the button Friday to get long this pair. There is an inverted Head and Shoulders pattern  in play if the neckline of 0.9340 is broken. The measured move on a neckline break is to target 0.9480. Support is good at 0.9280.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>5. MAJOR  FOREX NEWS EVENTS COMING UP THIS NEXT WEEK:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nMONDAY: CNY - HSBC Flash manufacturing PMi.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: EUR - French and German Flash Manufacturing PMi.\r\nTUESDAY: NZD - RBNZ Interest Rate Decision and Statement.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY/FRIDAY: JPY - BOJ Press Conference and Monetary Policy Statement\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>6. CLOSING THOUGHTS AND FINAL COMMENTS:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nWhilst it may look a little light on news events next week, we are at yet another crossroad in the markets both Equity and Forex, and, in addition, many major pairs are at key support or near resistance levels. I see the USD only getting stronger as the weeks roll by, given the weakness in metals and the commodity currencies. As I have said many, many times before.....commodities lead the way, then bonds, and equities are nearly always the last to arrive at the party. We have not had the usual inter market correlations in place for quite sometime now and I really feel a sentiment change is a-foot...so be careful, moves could be dramatic and telling.\r\n\r\nTrade lean and mean with wider stops, smaller position sizes and operate within your trading plan.\r\n\r\nGood luck,\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nSaturday 20th April 2013','THE EUROZONE....WHAT A MESS; I JUST DON\'T GET IT... THE POLITICIANS MAKE IT WORSE','','inherit','open','closed','','1637-revision-v1','','','2014-01-20 13:47:33','2014-01-20 18:47:33','',1637,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/1637-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(3069,16,'2014-01-20 13:49:54','2014-01-20 18:49:54','<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong> 1. INTRODUCTION:</strong></span>\n\nThere was a lot of news in the past week to get your teeth into regarding the forex market, and, it was without doubt the best forex trading week of 2013........well....it was for me anyway!\n\nCentral Banks reported left right and centre throughout the week but, Kuroda at the BOJ took centre stage and delivered more than the markets expected. Since I started trading currencies, this was the first time that I can recall that the BOJ actually delivered.\n\nThe BOJ press conference release moved all Yen pairs throughout the night in Asia and  it carried on through Europe and then carried on in the North American market. The USD/JPY moved about 300 pips from lows to highs on the day...fantastic. I really believe that there is a lot more to come, maybe not as much as some analysts are talking about, one TV pundit is talking in terms of a possible 110.00....that seems a bit much for me, but we have gone from 92.80 pre press conference to 97.75 yesterday....just short of 500 pips in two days.....wow!! This pair is definitely one not to step in front of or try to fade for sometime yet.....I think? Be very careful if you think you can pick a top and fade.\n\nCompare the BOJ with Draghi\'s lack lustre performance at the ECB press conference it was \"Chalk and Cheese\". Personally I do not believe what he said or what was written in his pre-determined press release,or his statements during the question time section were the truth. I think he was very economical with the truth, and, at the end of the day all he wanted to create was a short covering rally in the EUR/USD. Going into the meeting the EUR was under pressure, in particular the EUR/USD. If a short covering was his goal, and I believe it was, he achieved his goal but the effects will only be short lived in my opinion.\n\nAll in all, a great personal week I took great pips long the USD/JPY and some great profits on the EUR/USD short and GBP/USD short earlier in the week. We actually had a trend that stuck for 48 hours. Having said that there is still so much inter-market divergences it\'s a weird market place.\n\nLook at Gold about to test $1525 soon below there I see $1300. Copper is breaking down, we are now below $3.40. I keep saying it, but when the S&amp;P finally stops grinding higher the Aussie, Kiwi and Loonie are going to rip like f**k. Personally, I want to be right in front of my machine when it happens. There should be huge pip moves in the offing and all I want it a big chunk of the middle of these moves. I do not need to pick tops or bottoms, just give me a chunk of the meat in the middle.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>2. THE VIEW FROM MY TRADING DESK:</strong></span>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>SO...DRAGHI THINKS ALL IS PROGRESSING WELL WITHIN THE EUROZONE...INTERESTING!!</strong></p>\nEvery month I always look forward to the ECB press conference. There is always something I find to take away, chew over and keep it in the back of my mind when placing trades. As a fundamental trader first, I find that this process works for me quite well.\n\nLast Thursday, I found something lacking; something was not right at the ECB, and, certainly I thought that Draghi struggled. He basically sat there and delivered a speech that for me basically said nothing new, in fact, he appears to be saying the same thing month after month but he just changes the sentence order around. Pure regurgitation of the same old, same old! If you had landed from another planet without knowledge of the Eurozone and attended the ECB press conference you would think that listening to Draghi that the Eurozone is brilliant and all is well and wonderful. Was Draghi talking bull, camel or cow s**t.\n\nI was really gobsmacked...we had seen in the past thirty days a series of Eurozone blunders that even I did not think was possible. The Eurozone economic performances country by country is just getting worse and worse and yet Draghi performed a modern-day \"Pontius Pilate\" on the whole affair. His tone was that everything was just fine and dandy. When he said that there was no real discussion on an interest rate cut, I thought bulls**t...... that was the cue for the markets to buy EUR. I firmly believe that this was what he wanted. A short covering rally to take the pressure off all the bad news that had been driving the EUR/USD towards 52 week lows. I just cannot believe that with the Eurozone periphery so far down the toilet economically, there was not a serious discussion to cut rates to help them.\n\nAlthough I have written many, many times over the last few months that  the Eurozone is all about German intentions, needs and desires, and to hell with the other member states, I always thought that some balance would apply at some level, maybe the ECB.....alas not. For Christmas my best friend bought me a copy of the book by Harold James \"Making The European Union\".  It\'s heavy to follow as you can imagine. There are a few interesting sections....I just want to mention one line regarding the union.... \"One country-One vote\"...my arse it is. Germany contribute the bulk in $$$ and therefore the periphery counts for bugger all.\n\nOver the last 30 days, the biggest screw up in the history of Eurozone communications took place over Cyprus. At the ECB press conference Draghi was questioned over his role and that of the ECB  in the f**k up. On the day  before the news broke from Cyprus to the world, the ECB and Draghi signed off on the original \"Bail-in\" that took money from all bank deposit accounts, including those with balances under EUR 100,000.00 which, were allegedly protected under Eurozone legislation. The day  the news was  released, there was a huge backlash, causing a huge backtrack from the Eurozone. Draghi glibly dismissed the backtrack by saying \"The plan A\" was not a smart idea....no kidding!! Draghi was not pushed at all by the attendees at the press conference. Personally, I thought this very poor and hugely disappointing considering the implications. Despite all the press communications and denials , followed by confirmations, we have a template for future Eurozone periphery \"bail-ins\". This is huge news whichever way you slice it......and it\'s definitely not good news for the Eurozone.  A great opportunity to press Draghi was missed. Nobody even raised the subject of the Cyprus financial controls in place on day-to-day banking that have now been extended twice. There will be a run on the banks as soon as these controls are lifted, that is unless the controls stay in place for a least a year or two allowing most accounts to deplete on a drip feed basis week by week. Eurozone officials have their heads so far up their own asses they cannot see, never mind hear the damage they are creating in Cyprus. The country is doomed......that is putting it mildly it\'s fu***d.\n\nMoving away from Cyprus.......all in the Eurozone is wonderful according to Draghi. But what about France...??? The Finance Minister Moscovic is looking for leniency from Germany regarding the current account deficit. It looks like two years extra is required for France to come in line on limits set by Brussels, or should I have written Frankfurt or maybe even Berlin?  The poor French, God love them played their joker by stating that Germany needs a strong French presence in the Eurozone. As usual the French are having an inflated opinion of themselves in this regard. As far as Berlin is concerned France is also a periphery country. The love affair with Berlin ended as soon as Szarkozy was booted out and replaced by the lack lustre performer Hollande.\n\nSpanish and Italian banks were in the news again with both Fitch and Moody\'s talking  about stresses and continuing negative outlooks.  So much debt in the Spanish banks revolves around social security indebtedness,I think the percentage is in the high 90s,  it\'s incredible and hugely concerning although little attention is being paid to it right now. The Spanish regions are still up the Swanee regarding funding. In Italy the political turmoil, or rather farce continues with Bersani saying anyone who wants to assume power right now is basically an idiot and stupid. The only good news out of Spain and Italy is that 10 year yields are now well and truly below 5% for both countries.\n\nContinual poor GDP releases show that most of  the Eurozone is deep in recession. The Irish once again dropped back into the red. France\'s numbers are pitiful and as for Spain, Italy and Greece there are so many issues its not good news at all. There is no aid to promote growth to generate a positive GDP. Statements from the German Finance Minister Schaeuble do not help; his latest, classic quote... \"Austerity is not incompatible with growth\". Not so sure the Eurozone periphery would agree. As these politicians on acid?\n\nI fear that in the Eurozone hundreds of thousands of people are in danger of losing money sometime in the future unless there is a growth strategy introduced. I know many of these issues are not directly under the remit of the ECB, Draghi uses the line \"within limits\" quite a bit. It was good news to hear a few months ago that he was acting in line with his responsibilities but we have moved on a great deal recently and I think Draghi\'s performance was a cop out in nearly every area. He did put things away in a locked drawer and ignore areas that he should be integral to, or at least have an opinion on. This was a lesson learnt from the politicians he observes in the Eurozone on a day to day basis on how to kick a can down the road.\n\nSo all in all \"Super Mario\"...... \"We (ECB) will do all it takes...believe me\" needs to open his eyes and ears and smell the coffee. The Eurozone is completely fu***d up and not in good order at all. To conduct that press conference the way he did was an insult to the European people, I believe it was pure German lip service. All Draghi achieved was a respite in the EUR/USD pressure by creating a short covering rally. I expected and the voters expected a great deal more. At times it was so unreal to listen to it was laughable.\n\nAll the above said...How do we play the EUR/USD going forward?\n\nFollowing the poor U.S. Non Farm Payrolls yesterday, I expected the EUR/USD to march towards 1.3100. It never really happened we stopped around 1.3050 and pulled back ending the week below 1.3000 at 1.2990. After the Non Farm release I had the following trade in mind..... look to short EUR/USD at 1.3100, yesterday I missed the short at 1.3050 to get my trade going.....  I think that fact that we closed the week below 1.3000 has me thinking that we could be returning towards 1.2750 and not heading to 1.3100. The Eurozone fundamentals are so f***ed up I just don\'t see 1.3100.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>3. MY LONGER TERM TRADES:</strong></span>\n\nI do not have any long-term trades at the moment.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>4. LOOKING AHEAD INTO THIS COMING WEEK.....THE KEY SUPPORT and RESISTANCE LEVELS IN THE USD MAJORS.</strong></span>\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<strong>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.2990. </strong>I think that we ended the week with a bearish tone as we pulled back from what I thought was a nailed on 1.3100 squeeze. The immediate levels this week are short side 1.2900 (if this breaks we will be re-testing 1.2750..no fear) and the resistance to watch is 1.3050. If we can break through this level 1.3100 is next. I still think 1.3100 would be a great place to go short.\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/EURUSD-MONTHLY-060413.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1603\" alt=\"EURUSD MONTHLY 060413\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/EURUSD-MONTHLY-060413.png\" width=\"660\"  /></a></span>\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<strong>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.5335. </strong>When we broke through 1.5260, I never thought we would move so far. 1.5350 has held so far but unless we see a sympathy vote from the GBP in line with the EUR to head lower I think we are heading to 1.5600 following this breakout. The cross-rate effect of the EUR/GBP will also influence cable as we go forward. I am more in the bullish camp to 1.5600 than the bearish camp back to 1.5000. The levels to interest me initially this week are 1.5260 support and 1.5400 resistance.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1604\" alt=\"GBPUSD DAILY 06042013\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/GBPUSD-DAILY-06042013.png\" width=\"660\" />\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<strong>AUD/USD: Closing Price 1.0382. </strong>We are now below and closed below 1.0400. This is significant and the results from the unemployment statistics this week if poor will send this pair tumbling towards 1.0200 and then 1.0150 and parity. The levels are 1.0350 to 1.0440.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<strong>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8431. </strong>We closed just below resistance at 0.8450. This pair has held up very well. Yesterday we were in danger of a breakdown through 1.0370 towards 1.0350. This pair left the Aussie behind and the Kiwi strengthened. Levels this week are support at 1.0350 and resistance immediate is 0.8450 (may be a good place to try a short) beyond this level it\'s 0.8520.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<strong>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.0175. </strong>We broke thru 1.0200 on the back of poor employment data yesterday and then the loonie strengthened on the back of blow out IVEY PMi stats later on yesterday to take the pair back below 1.0200. One might say a typical day for the aptly named loonie. We are range bound and support is as 1.0100 and resistance is at 1.0250.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<strong>USD/JPY: Closing Price 97.54. </strong>The steam train was re-fuelled and headed north once again.....do not stand in front of this train. Please do not try to pick a top to fade. To me it looks like 100.00 is the objective and I read a few things saying 110.00 could be on. I think that that level maybe a bit far too quickly, too soon. This is a buy on pullbacks trade....what is a good pullback? We may not get good pullbacks. The USD/JPY works in round numbers so 97.00 may offer and a good level to get long. Whether we get there is debatable.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<strong>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.9347. </strong>This pair has quietly fallen away and I think that the Eurozone uncertainty is fuelling matters here. The movement of money out of the Eurozone is going to gain greater momentum over the next few weeks and this will weigh on the CHF pairs. The rumblings from the SNB on paying for deposits will raise it\'s head more and more if inflows set a pace that the SNB are not comfortable with. The areas to watch with this pair are 0.9250 support to 0.9420 resistance.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>5. THE MAJOR NEWS ITEMS THAT INTEREST ME THIS WEEK:</strong></span>\n\nWEDNESDAY: USD - FOMC Minutes.\nWEDNESDAY: AUD - Unemployment Rate and Statistics.\n\nTHURSDAY: USD - Core Retail Sales, PPi an Retail Sales.\n\nFRIDAY: USD - Bernanke speaks...all hail the FED chairman.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>6. CLOSING THOUGHTS AND FINAL COMMENTS:</strong></span>\n\nComing up it should be a quieter week. It certainly will be on the predetermined news events but the usual cocktail of sound-bytes and mis-quotes will be there so as usual, we need to be aware that these ad hoc news items can happen at anytime. In particular, the Eurozone will offer so many opportunities we just have to be careful with trade sizes.\n\nThe JPY I think will soldier on and I believe the train will not stop until we hit 100.00. That number is such a magnate, we have to go there before there can be any talk of a pullback.\n\nFinally, this is important. North Korea could scupper all. If North Korea start to get more bolshy and actually fire something somewhere.....all bets will be off. The USD and JPY will strengthen like crazy in my opinion. Bear this in mind.\n\nGood luck, be careful and make money,\n\n&nbsp;\n\nScott Pickering\nThe Pip Accumulator\nSaturday 6th April 2013\n\n&nbsp;\n\n&nbsp;\n\n&nbsp;','SO...DRAGHI THINKS ALL IS PROGRESSING WELL WITHIN THE EUROZONE...INTERESTING!!','','inherit','open','closed','','1589-autosave-v1','','','2014-01-20 13:49:54','2014-01-20 18:49:54','',1589,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/1589-autosave-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(3070,16,'2014-01-20 13:49:57','2014-01-20 18:49:57','<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong> 1. INTRODUCTION:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nThere was a lot of news in the past week to get your teeth into regarding the forex market, and, it was without doubt the best forex trading week of 2013........well....it was for me anyway!\r\n\r\nCentral Banks reported left right and centre throughout the week but, Kuroda at the BOJ took centre stage and delivered more than the markets expected. Since I started trading currencies, this was the first time that I can recall that the BOJ actually delivered.\r\n\r\nThe BOJ press conference release moved all Yen pairs throughout the night in Asia and  it carried on through Europe and then carried on in the North American market. The USD/JPY moved about 300 pips from lows to highs on the day...fantastic. I really believe that there is a lot more to come, maybe not as much as some analysts are talking about, one TV pundit is talking in terms of a possible 110.00....that seems a bit much for me, but we have gone from 92.80 pre press conference to 97.75 yesterday....just short of 500 pips in two days.....wow!! This pair is definitely one not to step in front of or try to fade for sometime yet.....I think? Be very careful if you think you can pick a top and fade.\r\n\r\nCompare the BOJ with Draghi\'s lack lustre performance at the ECB press conference it was \"Chalk and Cheese\". Personally I do not believe what he said or what was written in his pre-determined press release,or his statements during the question time section were the truth. I think he was very economical with the truth, and, at the end of the day all he wanted to create was a short covering rally in the EUR/USD. Going into the meeting the EUR was under pressure, in particular the EUR/USD. If a short covering was his goal, and I believe it was, he achieved his goal but the effects will only be short lived in my opinion.\r\n\r\nAll in all, a great personal week I took great pips long the USD/JPY and some great profits on the EUR/USD short and GBP/USD short earlier in the week. We actually had a trend that stuck for 48 hours. Having said that there is still so much inter-market divergences it\'s a weird market place.\r\n\r\nLook at Gold about to test $1525 soon below there I see $1300. Copper is breaking down, we are now below $3.40. I keep saying it, but when the S&amp;P finally stops grinding higher the Aussie, Kiwi and Loonie are going to rip like f**k. Personally, I want to be right in front of my machine when it happens. There should be huge pip moves in the offing and all I want it a big chunk of the middle of these moves. I do not need to pick tops or bottoms, just give me a chunk of the meat in the middle.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>2. THE VIEW FROM MY TRADING DESK:</strong></span>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>SO...DRAGHI THINKS ALL IS PROGRESSING WELL WITHIN THE EUROZONE...INTERESTING!!</strong></p>\r\nEvery month I always look forward to the ECB press conference. There is always something I find to take away, chew over and keep it in the back of my mind when placing trades. As a fundamental trader first, I find that this process works for me quite well.\r\n\r\nLast Thursday, I found something lacking; something was not right at the ECB, and, certainly I thought that Draghi struggled. He basically sat there and delivered a speech that for me basically said nothing new, in fact, he appears to be saying the same thing month after month but he just changes the sentence order around. Pure regurgitation of the same old, same old! If you had landed from another planet without knowledge of the Eurozone and attended the ECB press conference you would think that listening to Draghi that the Eurozone is brilliant and all is well and wonderful. Was Draghi talking bull, camel or cow s**t.\r\n\r\nI was really gobsmacked...we had seen in the past thirty days a series of Eurozone blunders that even I did not think was possible. The Eurozone economic performances country by country is just getting worse and worse and yet Draghi performed a modern-day \"Pontius Pilate\" on the whole affair. His tone was that everything was just fine and dandy. When he said that there was no real discussion on an interest rate cut, I thought bulls**t...... that was the cue for the markets to buy EUR. I firmly believe that this was what he wanted. A short covering rally to take the pressure off all the bad news that had been driving the EUR/USD towards 52 week lows. I just cannot believe that with the Eurozone periphery so far down the toilet economically, there was not a serious discussion to cut rates to help them.\r\n\r\nAlthough I have written many, many times over the last few months that  the Eurozone is all about German intentions, needs and desires, and to hell with the other member states, I always thought that some balance would apply at some level, maybe the ECB.....alas not. For Christmas my best friend bought me a copy of the book by Harold James \"Making The European Union\".  It\'s heavy to follow as you can imagine. There are a few interesting sections....I just want to mention one line regarding the union.... \"One country-One vote\"...my arse it is. Germany contribute the bulk in $$$ and therefore the periphery counts for bugger all.\r\n\r\nOver the last 30 days, the biggest screw up in the history of Eurozone communications took place over Cyprus. At the ECB press conference Draghi was questioned over his role and that of the ECB  in the f**k up. On the day  before the news broke from Cyprus to the world, the ECB and Draghi signed off on the original \"Bail-in\" that took money from all bank deposit accounts, including those with balances under EUR 100,000.00 which, were allegedly protected under Eurozone legislation. The day  the news was  released, there was a huge backlash, causing a huge backtrack from the Eurozone. Draghi glibly dismissed the backtrack by saying \"The plan A\" was not a smart idea....no kidding!! Draghi was not pushed at all by the attendees at the press conference. Personally, I thought this very poor and hugely disappointing considering the implications. Despite all the press communications and denials , followed by confirmations, we have a template for future Eurozone periphery \"bail-ins\". This is huge news whichever way you slice it......and it\'s definitely not good news for the Eurozone.  A great opportunity to press Draghi was missed. Nobody even raised the subject of the Cyprus financial controls in place on day-to-day banking that have now been extended twice. There will be a run on the banks as soon as these controls are lifted, that is unless the controls stay in place for a least a year or two allowing most accounts to deplete on a drip feed basis week by week. Eurozone officials have their heads so far up their own asses they cannot see, never mind hear the damage they are creating in Cyprus. The country is doomed......that is putting it mildly it\'s fu***d.\r\n\r\nMoving away from Cyprus.......all in the Eurozone is wonderful according to Draghi. But what about France...??? The Finance Minister Moscovic is looking for leniency from Germany regarding the current account deficit. It looks like two years extra is required for France to come in line on limits set by Brussels, or should I have written Frankfurt or maybe even Berlin?  The poor French, God love them played their joker by stating that Germany needs a strong French presence in the Eurozone. As usual the French are having an inflated opinion of themselves in this regard. As far as Berlin is concerned France is also a periphery country. The love affair with Berlin ended as soon as Szarkozy was booted out and replaced by the lack lustre performer Hollande.\r\n\r\nSpanish and Italian banks were in the news again with both Fitch and Moody\'s talking  about stresses and continuing negative outlooks.  So much debt in the Spanish banks revolves around social security indebtedness,I think the percentage is in the high 90s,  it\'s incredible and hugely concerning although little attention is being paid to it right now. The Spanish regions are still up the Swanee regarding funding. In Italy the political turmoil, or rather farce continues with Bersani saying anyone who wants to assume power right now is basically an idiot and stupid. The only good news out of Spain and Italy is that 10 year yields are now well and truly below 5% for both countries.\r\n\r\nContinual poor GDP releases show that most of  the Eurozone is deep in recession. The Irish once again dropped back into the red. France\'s numbers are pitiful and as for Spain, Italy and Greece there are so many issues its not good news at all. There is no aid to promote growth to generate a positive GDP. Statements from the German Finance Minister Schaeuble do not help; his latest, classic quote... \"Austerity is not incompatible with growth\". Not so sure the Eurozone periphery would agree. As these politicians on acid?\r\n\r\nI fear that in the Eurozone hundreds of thousands of people are in danger of losing money sometime in the future unless there is a growth strategy introduced. I know many of these issues are not directly under the remit of the ECB, Draghi uses the line \"within limits\" quite a bit. It was good news to hear a few months ago that he was acting in line with his responsibilities but we have moved on a great deal recently and I think Draghi\'s performance was a cop out in nearly every area. He did put things away in a locked drawer and ignore areas that he should be integral to, or at least have an opinion on. This was a lesson learnt from the politicians he observes in the Eurozone on a day to day basis on how to kick a can down the road.\r\n\r\nSo all in all \"Super Mario\"...... \"We (ECB) will do all it takes...believe me\" needs to open his eyes and ears and smell the coffee. The Eurozone is completely fu***d up and not in good order at all. To conduct that press conference the way he did was an insult to the European people, I believe it was pure German lip service. All Draghi achieved was a respite in the EUR/USD pressure by creating a short covering rally. I expected and the voters expected a great deal more. At times it was so unreal to listen to it was laughable.\r\n\r\nAll the above said...How do we play the EUR/USD going forward?\r\n\r\nFollowing the poor U.S. Non Farm Payrolls yesterday, I expected the EUR/USD to march towards 1.3100. It never really happened we stopped around 1.3050 and pulled back ending the week below 1.3000 at 1.2990. After the Non Farm release I had the following trade in mind..... look to short EUR/USD at 1.3100, yesterday I missed the short at 1.3050 to get my trade going.....  I think that fact that we closed the week below 1.3000 has me thinking that we could be returning towards 1.2750 and not heading to 1.3100. The Eurozone fundamentals are so f***ed up I just don\'t see 1.3100.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>3. MY LONGER TERM TRADES:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nI do not have any long-term trades at the moment.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>4. LOOKING AHEAD INTO THIS COMING WEEK.....THE KEY SUPPORT and RESISTANCE LEVELS IN THE USD MAJORS.</strong></span>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.2990. </strong>I think that we ended the week with a bearish tone as we pulled back from what I thought was a nailed on 1.3100 squeeze. The immediate levels this week are short side 1.2900 (if this breaks we will be re-testing 1.2750..no fear) and the resistance to watch is 1.3050. If we can break through this level 1.3100 is next. I still think 1.3100 would be a great place to go short.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/EURUSD-MONTHLY-060413.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1603\" alt=\"EURUSD MONTHLY 060413\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/EURUSD-MONTHLY-060413.png\" width=\"660\"  /></a></span>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.5335. </strong>When we broke through 1.5260, I never thought we would move so far. 1.5350 has held so far but unless we see a sympathy vote from the GBP in line with the EUR to head lower I think we are heading to 1.5600 following this breakout. The cross-rate effect of the EUR/GBP will also influence cable as we go forward. I am more in the bullish camp to 1.5600 than the bearish camp back to 1.5000. The levels to interest me initially this week are 1.5260 support and 1.5400 resistance.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1604\" alt=\"GBPUSD DAILY 06042013\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/GBPUSD-DAILY-06042013.png\" width=\"660\" />\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>AUD/USD: Closing Price 1.0382. </strong>We are now below and closed below 1.0400. This is significant and the results from the unemployment statistics this week if poor will send this pair tumbling towards 1.0200 and then 1.0150 and parity. The levels are 1.0350 to 1.0440.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8431. </strong>We closed just below resistance at 0.8450. This pair has held up very well. Yesterday we were in danger of a breakdown through 1.0370 towards 1.0350. This pair left the Aussie behind and the Kiwi strengthened. Levels this week are support at 1.0350 and resistance immediate is 0.8450 (may be a good place to try a short) beyond this level it\'s 0.8520.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.0175. </strong>We broke thru 1.0200 on the back of poor employment data yesterday and then the loonie strengthened on the back of blow out IVEY PMi stats later on yesterday to take the pair back below 1.0200. One might say a typical day for the aptly named loonie. We are range bound and support is as 1.0100 and resistance is at 1.0250.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/JPY: Closing Price 97.54. </strong>The steam train was re-fuelled and headed north once again.....do not stand in front of this train. Please do not try to pick a top to fade. To me it looks like 100.00 is the objective and I read a few things saying 110.00 could be on. I think that that level maybe a bit far too quickly, too soon. This is a buy on pullbacks trade....what is a good pullback? We may not get good pullbacks. The USD/JPY works in round numbers so 97.00 may offer and a good level to get long. Whether we get there is debatable.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.9347. </strong>This pair has quietly fallen away and I think that the Eurozone uncertainty is fuelling matters here. The movement of money out of the Eurozone is going to gain greater momentum over the next few weeks and this will weigh on the CHF pairs. The rumblings from the SNB on paying for deposits will raise it\'s head more and more if inflows set a pace that the SNB are not comfortable with. The areas to watch with this pair are 0.9250 support to 0.9420 resistance.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>5. THE MAJOR NEWS ITEMS THAT INTEREST ME THIS WEEK:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD - FOMC Minutes.\r\nWEDNESDAY: AUD - Unemployment Rate and Statistics.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: USD - Core Retail Sales, PPi an Retail Sales.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: USD - Bernanke speaks...all hail the FED chairman.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>6. CLOSING THOUGHTS AND FINAL COMMENTS:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nComing up it should be a quieter week. It certainly will be on the predetermined news events but the usual cocktail of sound-bytes and mis-quotes will be there so as usual, we need to be aware that these ad hoc news items can happen at anytime. In particular, the Eurozone will offer so many opportunities we just have to be careful with trade sizes.\r\n\r\nThe JPY I think will soldier on and I believe the train will not stop until we hit 100.00. That number is such a magnate, we have to go there before there can be any talk of a pullback.\r\n\r\nFinally, this is important. North Korea could scupper all. If North Korea start to get more bolshy and actually fire something somewhere.....all bets will be off. The USD and JPY will strengthen like crazy in my opinion. Bear this in mind.\r\n\r\nGood luck, be careful and make money,\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nSaturday 6th April 2013\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','SO...DRAGHI THINKS ALL IS PROGRESSING WELL WITHIN THE EUROZONE...INTERESTING!!','','inherit','open','closed','','1589-revision-v1','','','2014-01-20 13:49:57','2014-01-20 18:49:57','',1589,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/1589-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(3071,16,'2014-01-20 13:56:32','2014-01-20 18:56:32','<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>1. INTRODUCTION:</strong></span>\n\nI\'m back....\n\nThree weeks of flu has really had me up the wall.\n\nDespite being somewhat out of it, I have been watching the markets from a distance, observing and towards the end of this past week I have been back to 50% trading. Including our vacation in Europe and Hong Kong it has been literally four weeks away from full-time trading. What I have noticed though is that for the most part in my absence the Fx markets have been trading in fairly tight ranges and it is only very, very recently that it looks like we are finally ready to break free and see a little bit of volatility.\n\nEven the USD/JPY, which had been on the tear is now in a range as it appears that old Shinzo has decided that the run to 93.00 is about right.....and fair.....but fair for who? Not to be too cynical but his latest comments followed the recent G7 and G20 meetings or  \"Cheese and Wine\" parties.\n\nAh, the denial of currency wars in the G7 is about the same as Ahmadinejad\'s denial of the holocaust. Unbelievable, I watched George Osborne, UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, squirming on TV under scrutiny over the \"wishy-washy\" press release. That certainly cheered me up...I love watching politicians on the ropes trying to defend the indefensible and deny the undeniable....oh...happy days!!\n\nFinally, the Friday afternoon rating agencies announcement this time went to Moody\'s who downgraded the UK debt rating to Aa1 from AAA.....\nThe ramifications of this will be hugely different from the US and French downgrades. London relies on the financial markets so much and is such a huge percentage within the FTSE, this move will have the effect of creating big waves. Yesterday at the end of the day literally the last gasp of the Fx market, the GBP/USD sold off 75 pips in 30 minutes. I do not want to appear to be a drama queen but we may test 1.5000 in the London session (overnight Sunday tomorrow) if the reaction in Europe is really negative. Then again many would argue that the markets will simply shrug this news off as the rating agencies count for nothing, and many people will argue that that this downgrade was to a large effect already priced in given the huge move lower in the GBP/USD over the past 10 days. We may see what is called \"The Revenge Bounce\", who knows, and, if we do, how far could cable pull back....1.5400.....who knows? We will wait and see the reaction....no sleep for me tomorrow!!\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>2. THE VIEW FROM MY TRADING DESK:</strong></span>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>ALL EYES ON THE EURO....FUNDAMENTALS DO MATTER</strong></p>\nOver the past twelve months I have been consistently blogging about how much the Eurozone economies, in fact, the Eurozone  are down the toilet.\n\nThe constant non-productive summits (wine tastings to you and I), the totally ineffective Eurozone treaties and the numpty politicians when added together provide what can only be described as the biggest recipe for disaster that would even have world acclaimed best chef ever, Gordon Ramsey running for new expletives other than the \"F\" word. But his comments right now if  he were at a Eurozone summit would be along the lines of: -\n<p style=\"padding-left: 150px;\"><em>What the f**k was that comment Draghi made about the OMT all about, we do not f**king understand that f**king man?</em>\n<em> Who the f**k do they think they f**king are in the UK, tell that Cameron to f**k off!</em>\n<em> Are they f**king smoking something in f**king Greece?</em>\n<em> What is all the F**cking worry over the f**king GDP about anyway, its the f**king fact no one has a f**king job is what they should f**king  focus on?</em>\n<em> Who\'s f**king idea was it to have a f**king single f**king currency anyhow...f**king idiots.</em>\n<em> Pass me the f**king wine...I need another f**king drink..f**king plonkers.</em></p>\nYou get the idea...\n\nFundamentals always matter, it not just technicals. Eventually  the chickens come home to roost and the all ducks line up. Let\'s look at the Eurozone right now, at a macro level (this will not be too detailed for obvious reasons).\n\n<strong>A - GERMANY: The power house, the work horse, the leader of the Eurozone and dominant economy. (The largest economy in the Eurozone)</strong>\n\nThis weeks, February \"Flash Manufacturing PMi\" came is at  50.1 versus the consensus of  50.4 ...whilst over the contracting line of 50...still a miss.\n\nThe previous monthly results from August through to December  2012 were as follows:\n\nJanuary 2013         Actual 48.8    Forecast  47.1  Beat\nDecember 2012     Actual 46.3    Forecast 47.1    Miss\nNovember  2012    Actual 48.8   Forecast  45.9   Beat\nOctober 2012         Actual  45.7   Forecast  48.1   Miss\n<em id=\"__mceDel\">September 2012    Actual   47.3   Forecast  45.4   Beat\n</em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\">August 2012          Actual   45.1    Forecast  43.5   Beat   (The Source of these statistics was the Forex Factory).</em>\n\nI am only citing Manufacturing PMi but this is a great benchmark indicator on raw material purchases, current market conditions and it is a great indicator of a country\'s economic health. It is not exciting reading, it shows that that the German economy is continuing to struggle. Remember the German government stated that Germany had turned the corner following misses in February, March, April, May, June and July 2012. It is NOT that simple or straightforward as the numbers show.\n\nBear in mind that in the final quarter of 2012 the German economy shrank by 0.6%.\n\nIn addition, remember Germany also goes to the polls later this year.\n\nThe fundamentals are not winning anyone over.\n\n<strong>B - FRANCE: Main supplier of cheese and wine to the Eurozone summits (Second largest economy in the Eurozone).</strong>\n\nPMi in France is a bloody disaster. Out of the past six months it has beat only  once in November 2012.\n\n<em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\">February 2013        Actual 43.6    Forecast 43.9    Miss\n</em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\">January 2013         Actual 42.9    Forecast  44.9   Miss\n</em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\">December 2012     Actual 42.9   Forecast 44.9    Miss\n</em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\">November  2012    Actual 44.7   Forecast  44.1   Beat\n</em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\">October 2012         Actual  43.5   Forecast  43.9   Miss\n</em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\">September 2012    Actual   42.6   Forecast  46.5   Miss\n</em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\"></em><em id=\"__mceDel\">August 2012          Actual   46.2    Forecast  43.7   Beat   (The Source of these statistics was the Forex Factory)</em>  \n\nNot pleasant reading and considering Sarkozy was booted out for Hollande........it\'s shown that the promises supplied to the electorate to use for voting preferences were maybe not that straightforward an option as first thought. Given that France is the second largest economy in the Eurozone it is having a difficult time.\n\nThe risk of social unrest (riots to you and me) in France are massive. The public deficit is set to be even worse than that of 2012. In 2013 it is now predicted to come in at 3.7% of output and in 2014 even higher at 3.9%.  France has been due in 2013 to be back within the EU\'s deficit ceiling of 3.0% of output...that ship has long sailed. In fact Hollande is at Charles de Gaulle airport expecting his boat to miraculously dock at Terminal 2F. The gap leaves Hollands looking to Brussels for favours. It should be interesting, he\'ll need more than a few cases of Chateauneuf du Pape and Corton Charlemagne  promised to the next summit to win over the tough standing Angela Merkel....mind you God love her she has elections to contend with later this year. If France flatlines this year on growth Hollande will be in Reims and Ay on the Champagne having parties...but not the Berlusconi type....but your never know......\n\n<strong>C - ITALY: Home of the party animal Silvio Berlusconi, my favourite wines Sassicia and Brunello di Montalcino (The third largest economy in the Eurozone).</strong>\n\n2013 the Italian economy is set to shrink by 1.0%\n\nThis weekend we enter an Italian election, with the outcome far from certain. Boring incumbant, Mario Monti looks like he is never going to win a majority and may not even have the largest party to try and form a coalition with. He is up against the Party Animal and Toga man (lock up your daughters) Berlusconi that has promised to get out  of all this austerity crap and get back to the good old days.\n\nThen you have a comedian turned politician...there is a joke in there somewhere, most politicians are jokers and comedians to me at the best of times. The \"Five Star Movement\" headed by Beppe Grillo, who promises no coalitions and unity to get back to the good old days without the EU.\n\nFinally, you have Bersani...can\'t find anything humorous, or any dirt about him, he can\'t be Italian..he must be Finnish or something.\n\nItalian politics at the forefront this weekend. The result will be so  complicated if no outright winner emerges it may take up to two weeks to sort matters out.\n\nUnemployment and social unrest in Italy continues to rise, hence the fact \"whackos\" are running for Prime Minister. In December 2012 the rate of unemployment in Italy rose to 11.2%, it represents a month on month rise from January 2011 from a base of 8.1%. Youth unemployment (18-24 year olds) is at 36.6%.\n\nNo growth, increasing unemployment......get the message.\n\n<strong>D - SPAIN: Supplier of superior corks to the French wine industry (keeping lower grade for their domestic market) best Olive Oil in Europe and best national football team in the world (The fourth largest economy in the Eurozone).</strong>\n\nHaving lived in Spain for six years I love the place, the climate is magnificent, although.......infrastructure is a nightmare.\n\nEconomically, scandals that even have the French opening their eyes wide.......this year the EU\'s Ollie Rehn stating that the Spanish economy will shrink by 1.4%. Rajoy, the Spanish Prime Minister has not uttered much recently due to the number of brown paper envelopes in his office, he is having difficulty locating his telephone!!\n\nUnemployment, in particular youth unemployment at 55%....overall a record 26% of people actively looking for work cannot find jobs. These are only the official numbers there are so many illegals living in Spain these numbers do NOT reflect the true state of play.\n\nThe housing market is a complete disaster. So many second and third homes purchased in Spain are up for sale at almost any cost as people try to realise capital. Mortgage arrears out of control, the banking sector in denial.\n\nRegional debt spiralling out of control.\n\nWelfare structure cut when more and more people need help and government assistance.\n\nApart from the above, Spain is in great shape.\n\n<strong>E - SOME OF THE PERIPHERY COUNTRIES:  Ireland, Greece, Portugal and Cyprus.</strong>\n\n<strong>IRELAND:</strong> The Golden Boy of austerity. Housing still not at the bottom yet. The 100% guarantee of Irish bank deposits soon to be removed completely from personal savings. Unemployment still an issue...........amongst other economic issues.\n\n<strong>GREECE:</strong>  Youth unemployment now at 60%. The National rate is at 27% or above. The bailout kings of Europe. Another one again soon as the government fails with every attempt to get finances under control when it has minus growth and will have through 2013 and 2014. I read somewhere almost 1,000 Greeks were losing their jobs between November 2011 and November 2012...stagerring.\n\n<strong>PORTUGAL:</strong> Austerity hitting hard and although the government state that they will not require more EU funding...many, many economists think otherwise and feel it just a matter of time before Frankfurt and Brussels are alerted.\n\n<strong>CYPRUS:</strong> Now at the table sorting out a bailout.\n\nIt is a false reality that the Eurozone, along with other countries have been living recently.\n\nGood economic or bad economic data...it makes no difference the answer is to buy shares, the central banks are printing money like crazy to keep the equity markets inflated. If the greed of the markets is satisfied when the economics can be so poor,it makes little sense to the man on the street fighting to make ends meet. The Forex markets follow this lead in equities most of the time. As traders we examine the technicals on the charts and make trades. Behind all of this, the fundamentals are placed more often than not in a secondary role because technicals do matter probably a bit more to the markets. Every now and then a dose of reality strikes home and someone says WTF are we doing here...forget about the technicals........This economy is down the crapper!!\n\nIn my opinion, we are there now with the Eurozone.\n\nI think a break below 1.3140 in the EUR/USD will open up a run at 1.3000. A break through there and I really do think that because nothing has been tackled by the Eurozone politicians effectively, admittedly Super Mario Draghi has done his bit but even he will be somewhat limited, we will see a test of 1.2600 and I think fair value for the EUR/USD lies well below there.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>3. MY CURRENT LONG-TERM TRADES:</strong></span>\n\nI have no long term trades in play right now.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>4. LOOKING INTO NEXT WEEK THE FUTURE KEY SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS:</strong></span>\n\n<strong>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3191.</strong> We are in a down trend with this pair. The close this week below 1.3250 is bearish and the fact that we are just 50 pips away from the lows of 1.3140 makes it all looks pretty bleak for the EUR/USD. The worsening economic outlook in the Eurozone and the impending Italian election results will keep the pressure to the downside very much in play. The immediate range is 1.3140 to 1.3250. Beyond these levels the wider support and resistance targets will be 1.3000 to the downside and the critical upside resistance will be at 1.3400.\n\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/EURUSD-M-230213.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1462\" alt=\"EURUSD M 230213\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/EURUSD-M-230213.png\" width=\"660\" /></a>\n\n<strong>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.5162.</strong> Following the Moody\'s downgrade, the market reaction in Asia and Europe tomorrow and overnight into Monday will be crucial. I do think that we will see a lower level in the pair but we should also be ready for a bounce. Just how strong the bounce could be is the $64,000 question. I think the likes of 1.5000 is now an extremely important level and if that gives away we will be at 1.4800 pretty quickly. Initial upside resistance at 1.5250 has held for the past few days, so the bounce may be contained there. If  the response in London Monday is f**k the US rating agency, we could see 1.5400. My feelings are 1.5000 is more likely but.....who knows??\n\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/GBPUSD-D-230213.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1463\" alt=\"GBPUSD D 230213\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/GBPUSD-D-230213.png\" width=\"660\" /></a>\n\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/GBPUSD-M-230213.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1464\" alt=\"GBPUSD M 230213\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/GBPUSD-M-230213.png\" width=\"660\"/></a>\n\n<strong>AUD/USD: Closing Price 1.0319.</strong> RBA Governor Stevens talked up this pair on Thursday and it was very well supported yesterday. I heard that on CNBC Brian Kelly was looking to play this pair long opposite Gold to 1.0800. Jesus, Mary and Joseph......I am completely 100% opposite him on this trade. I see more downward pressure on the AUD/USD over the coming months. The 1.0600 level has held so many times, in fact, 1.0500 has been great resistance. Bear in mind, as equities have risen recently, the divergence in the AUD/USD has been more than remarkable. Equities have risen, the AUD/USD has dropped. As long as 1.0375 to the upside holds, I think that the downside  pressure will return. The next support will be 1.0260 followed by 1.0150 then look out for lower levels as I think Gold will fall to test $1400. My longer term thoughts on the AUD/USD is sub parity around 0.9800.\n\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.comv/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/AUDUSD-240-230213.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1461\" alt=\"AUDUSD 240 230213\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/AUDUSD-240-230213.png\" width=\"660\" /></a>\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<strong>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8379.</strong> We closed yesterday just below 0.8400. This is a great area to try to enter short if it holds, it could offer a great risk/reward to much lower levels as the NZD would be dragged lower if the AUD falls. A break above 0.8435 and then all bets are off.  0.8375 to 0.8435 is the immediate range that I am looking at. I do fear a move above 0.8435 will test 0.8520 or maybe even higher. We are at a critical point with this pair. If it falls, in line with the AUD/USD 0.8000 would be my longer term target.\n\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/NZDUSD-D-230213.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1465\" alt=\"NZDUSD D 230213\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/NZDUSD-D-230213.png\" width=\"660\" /></a>\n\n<strong>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.0213.</strong> Yesterday this pair failed to capitalise on its move towards 1.0260 then 1.0280, with it pulling back towards 1.0200. Positively, we are last on the cusp of a breakout that looks like it could get some legs. Longer term, I think this pair will be trading above 1.0450-1.0600 maybe even up towards 1.1000....who knows? If the EUR/USD really falls away and the US$ index gains in strength away for $82 to say $86 or $89 as some analysts predict, the dizzy heights of 1.0600 is not so weird. For now 1.0100 to 1.0280 is the range to play the breakouts from.\n\n<strong>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.9295.</strong> I am not getting in any way excited with this pair until the well established range is broken one way or the other 0.9250 support to 0.9350 resistance.\n\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/USDCHF-240-230213.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1467\" alt=\"USDCHF 240 230213\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/USDCHF-240-230213.png\" width=\"660\"  /></a>\n\n<strong>USD/JPY: Closing Price 93.41.</strong> The trade of 2013 has now entered consolidation mode. We have a defined trend line and top end of the range to measure. Support is at 92.70 and resistance is at 94.00.\n\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/USDJPY-D-230213.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1468\" alt=\"USDJPY D 230213\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/USDJPY-D-230213.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"562\" /></a>\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>5. MAJOR NEWS EVENTS THAT INTEREST ME OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS:</strong></span>\n\nSUNDAY: EUR - Italian Elections.\nSUNDAY: CNY - HSBC Manufacturing PMi.\n\nMONDAY: EUR - Italian Elections.\n\nWEDNESDAY: USD - Bernanke testimony.\nWEDNESDAY: EUR - Draghi speaks.\nWEDNESDAY : AUD - Private Capital expenditure.\n\nTHURSDAY: CNY - PMi data.\n\nFRIDAY: GBP - PMi data.\nFRIDAY: USD - PMi data.\nFRIDAY: CAD - GDP.\nFRIDAY: USD - Bernanke testimony.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>6. CLOSING THOUGHTS AND FINAL COMMENTS:</strong></span>\n\nThere is a great deal of volatility on the horizon so look out.\n\nThe GBP and EUR should provide some spice in the early part of the week. The AUD news on Wednesday should give guidance to the RBA on whether they ease or not. The China PMi data........its going to be a long week and I predict some sleepless nights, burning the early hours oil with lots of coffee......jack and diets included.\n\nSo as always be careful placing trades, my ten cents would be to trade in very small positions with wider stops to cope with the volatility that will be happening. I think this week could be a sit over your computer all the time week. Take it to the bathroom with you as moves in the market given the backdrop will be swift and as usual in the Forex market totally unforgiving.\n\nGood luck,\n\nScott Pickering\nThe Pip Accumulator\nSaturday 23rd February 2013.','ALL EYES ON THE EURO....FUNDAMENTALS DO MATTER','','inherit','open','closed','','1439-autosave-v1','','','2014-01-20 13:56:32','2014-01-20 18:56:32','',1439,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/1439-autosave-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(3074,16,'2014-01-20 14:00:43','2014-01-20 19:00:43','<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>1. INTRODUCTION:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nWhat a great week for Fx traders. The last five days gave several great opportunities to make some money, there were really two main market movers that kept me interested.\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li>The JPY relentlessly weakening. For some reason I did not attempt to trade the YEN (JPY) crosses like the EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY , CAD/JPY and CHF/JPY as I felt that I was chasing the market and as I have indicated before it is not a good trading style or practice to adopt. I entered the USD/JPY on a pullback and hung on in there. Some great income. The move upwards in the YEN (JPY) I thought was coming to a close on several occasions and I did not want to be in the EUR/JPY or GBP/JPY in case we swung back violently. In addition, for my trading in 2013, it is all about risk management so I acted accordingly.</li>\r\n	<li>Super Mario......holy crap.........The guy says there was 100% agreement on not cutting EUR interest rates and we fly upwards taking all the EUR crosses and Cable for the long ride as well. It was the biggest one day move in the EUR/USD for a very, very long time. Recently we have traded on very low ATR\'s so this move was great...like the good old days. Then like a cherry on top of the \"Bakewell Tart\" (Google it, if you do not understand) the moves continued yesterday morning (Happy Days)...more $$$ and then I get a sweet trade short on GBP/USD for a 40% position size with 50 pips profit in it to round off the week.....sweet!!</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nI know, we had great China positive news that drove currencies around, in particular the Aussie and Kiwi, and, some interesting CAD news plus confirmation that the UK is really deep in the doo-doo but the YEN and Draghi were centre stage last week, in my opinion. What\'s next?..............I wish I knew....but it will probably be something with the word \"Cliff\" in it!!!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>2. THE VIEW FROM MY TRADING DESK:</strong></span>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>DO NOT GET CARRIED AWAY...THE EUROZONE IS STILL IN POOR SHAPE...NOTHING IS FIXED YET</strong></p>\r\nI just wanted to try and balance matters this week.\r\n\r\nThere is so much noise about the markets that following Draghi\'s press conference last Thursday  as the EUR rallied like a crazy man, or woman possessed to levels not seen for years that I actually for a moment thought that all the Eurozone problems were over. Smack my head against the wall....was I dreaming, was I half a bottle into Jack Daniels......no these were a few comments out on Twitter......My God, Twitter can be dangerous if you take it\'s comments verbatim.\r\n\r\nFor whatever reason and I am still struggling with this mentally... Draghi is talking up the Euro currency - why? What on earth is making the markets react the way they do. The EUR/USD rallied about 2% in the week...incredible. Bond yields are coming down but nothing is fixed. Last month at his press conference Draghi stated that there were conversations about reducing EUR interest rates and the currency got smacked. At Thursdays meeting all was sweet, no rate cut unanimous decision and the EUR/USD and all the cross currencies rose like a Salmon in B.C. leaping and jumping over rapids 6 feet in the air dodging \"Grizzlies\" on the way back upstream to it\'s spawning grounds....incredible. Draghi is screwing with the export capabilities that are going to be so crucial for growth in the Eurozone. Never mind Germany (they are the driving force of Europe - they can still export) , however  Spain, Greece, Portugal and the rest of the Eurozone still need to grow. They have to start pretty soon or we really will see disparate economic issues in the Eurozone....we will have a depression never mind recession. Even the German\'s cannot bail out the Eurozone alone and the ECB even with Super Mario at the helm cannot make a Rembrandt out of one of my paintings. The Eurozone needs to have, if it were a person, a good look at itself in the mirror and whilst it\'s there look in the background and see if it can see \"The can\" that has been kicked down the road so many times it must be like a tiny spec of dust on the mirror!\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>UNEMPLOYMENT</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>CONSUMER CONFIDENCE</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>GDP</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>PMi STATISTICS </strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>INCOME TAX AND STEALTH TAX RATES</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong> SOCIAL WELFARE COSTS &amp;  SPIRALING COSTS WITH GOVERNMENT BENEFIT SCHEMES</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>AUSTERITY MEASURES versus GROWTH </strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">These areas highlighted above are just a few of the problems still on the table for the Eurozone politicians to work through. They are both social and economic. The politicians and Civil Servants have been working a list similar to this one, probably with a few additional items contained therein for four years now and have made very little progress. Many would argue they are just delaying as there is no vision to actually sort these matters out. My belief is that politicians are not problem solvers they just attribute blame...so with that thought in mind that is why we have \"The Can\" being continually kicked down the road. Apart from choosing wine for the elaborate dinner menus at the EU summits I cannot think off the top of my head of a major achievement in the Eurozone by politicians in the last six months. Lots of promises......but bugger all action.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">We have the highest levels of Unemployment ever in the Eurozone since records began, as an area the total is above 11%. This in turn increases social welfare payments and reduces the tax intake. A double or triple whammy depending upon your viewpoint. The solution, is to increase the tax burden on the remainder to make up the shortfall. People then stop buying goods and services as they have reduced disposable income, confidence goes down as hard measures bite...and on it goes around and around.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">So, until something is actually done that gives the people who live in the Eurozone a positive outlook, do not get carried away with the politicians viewpoints or those of the ECB. They are so out of touch, it is baffling given what is and has been going on.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Trade carefully.......bad Eurozone news is ALWAYS a second or two away..............</p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>3. MY LONGER TERM TRADES:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nI have no long-term trades open in my \"Long-Term\" account. I tried a couple of times last week with the USD/JPY to keep a trade in position but I was stopped out.\r\n\r\nBut here are my plans, aims, thoughts: -\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">AUD/USD:</span>\r\nI was burned last year persisting with the AUD/USD short and while I believe Aussie news coming through is going to get decidedly worse as we move forward, I do not want to enter a trade until we test the 1.0630 level. I also want to see the China GDP data first before placing my trade. In the past week we had good China data, but the fact that after such good  news that we did not stretch that high and test makes me feel even more certain that the AUD/USD is one my next targets short on a longer-term basis. I just do not want to enter a trade at current levels.  A good  GDP number and we could be off to the races and 1.0630 could be breached, in fact, if we do get blowout numbers my short trade will be dead and buried.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">GBP/USD:</span>\r\nThe UK saw relief from the Olympics \"blip\" in statistics recently. That is now well gone and the chickens are coming home to roost one by one. News from the UK is basically poor and the fact that Chancellor Osborne is calling very openly for the GBP/USD to be lower than current levels to aid exports etc is more than just interesting. I see 1.5750 as my first short limit target.\r\n\r\nPullbacks with these two currencies next week and I will plunge in. I will tweet entries etc as I enter the trades.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>4. LOOKING INTO NEXT WEEK -  THESE ARE THE KEY SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJOR PAIRS:</strong></span>\r\n\r\n<strong>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3342. </strong>As stated last week we are still in a down sloping channel on the Monthly Chart. Terrific moves towards the latter end of last week, pushing this pair substantially higher. Personally, I feel that 1.3400 will offer a short opportunity as we head into confluences of resistance around 1.3380, then above 1.3400 the next stop is around 1.3455. Support will be back down at 1.3250 then 1.3150.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/EURUSD-MONTHLY-120113.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1378\" alt=\"EURUSD MONTHLY 120113\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/EURUSD-MONTHLY-120113.png\" width=\"660\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.6135.</strong> This pair is being dragged up by the EUR. The cross-rate effect of EUR/GBP will start to weigh in eventually and I think pressure this pair to the downside. Resistance lies at 1.6200, then 1.6250 if we ever get to those areas. Remember at 1.6300 the UK Chancellor, George Osborne, made his comments about cable being too strong so if the pair does really break higher be careful around this level in particular. Support to the downside rests at 1.6085, then 1.6045 and a big one at 1.6000.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/GBPUSD-240-120113.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1377\" alt=\"GBPUSD 240 120113\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/GBPUSD-240-120113.png\" width=\"660\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong>AUD/USD: Closing Price 1.0534.</strong> Bugger....this pair is heading lower too fast for my liking. From a personal perspective I want a re-test of 1.0630 so I can take a short trade. Will we get there...who knows? The range to play with the Aussie is 1.0500 to 1.0630.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/AUDUSD-DAILY-120113.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1379\" alt=\"AUDUSD DAILY 120113\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/AUDUSD-DAILY-120113.png\" width=\"660\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8358.</strong> This pair at the back of my mind I call the \"Doomsday\" pair. Another financial crash and I short this pair like crazy, and I mean crazy. I see 0.6500 in another crash situation. I am not however predicting or calling for a financial crash, let me just make myself clear on that point. I do however believe in my own mind that this pair is so far over-valued it\'s day is going to come and I hope I have my fingers ready on my trading computer when that day comes. I know, it is what it is and all that jazz but the Kiwi economy is not in that good a shape, why is it so high? Taking my emotion to one side for a minute, the levels to watch with this pair are; resistance 0.8375, then 0.8400. Short side support lies initially at 0.8300 down to 0.8240.\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/JPY: Closing Price 89.16.</strong> Is this pair ever going to pullback? Holy Mother of God, its rise (JPY weakness) is relentless.....will it ever stop. The simple truth (As Al Gore would say....) is that there is quite a bit more it can go to. On the Monthly Charts this pair is playing out an inverted \"Head and Shoulder\" pattern, from which, the measured move could take take it as high at 92.50 to 93.00. That\'s quite a move from where we are currently. It does not need to stop it can just keep going. Technical traders are saying over and over again that RSI (Relative Strength Indicator) is grossly over-bought, in fact it looks like it\'s the highest it\'s been on this pair for over 10 years. Logically, one would expect a pullback. But when did logic ever work in the day-to-day Forex market? Support should be good at around 88.60, maybe not a bad place to try and get long. I want 84.00....yeah, I know dream on..... Topside in the near term has to be huge at 90.00, then for me the inverted \"Head and Shoulder\" pattern plays out to completion. I read earlier this week that banks are stating 100.00 and I also read 110.00 as 2013-4 goals for this pair. Get the Jack and Diets ready!!\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.9133.</strong> Lost money on this pair this week trying to eek out a nice long trade-off 0.9200 support...crashed and burned on that one!! It\'s really all round numbers for me with this pair. Support 0.9100 then 0.9000 and resistance at 0.9200 then 0.9300.\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CAD: Closing Price 0.9846.</strong> I actually made money off the \"Loonie\" last week. Two quick fire trades on a news event...happy days. Support beckons at 0.9800 and then 0.9755. Would I just love to get long sub 0.9750 or what!!! Topside resistance comes in at 0.9880 and then 0.9920.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>5. MAJOR NEWS EVENTS THIS WEEK THAT INTEREST ME:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nLooking at The Forex Factory not much \"Red\" news this week of real interest to me.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: GBP - CPi and the BOE inflation letter should be interesting.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: AUD - Employment Numbers and Rate.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: CNY - GDP.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: GBP - Retail Sales.\r\n\r\n(Given that my target currencies looking forward are GBP and AUD these news events will either confirm or pour water over my thoughts).\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>6. CLOSING THOUGHTS AND COMMENTS:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nOn the face of things it looks like this week could be a slower week. However, do not forget the numpties in Washington are doing their best to f**k up the U.S. economy so be on guard for sound-bytes and ridiculous quotes based upon the party divide. These things can pull the markets around in the blink of an eye and really screw up your trending trades and land you in the crapper.\r\n\r\nTherefore, trade a little smaller position size and allow for volatility whilst the U.S. politicians strut their stuff on the TV and Radio stations.\r\n\r\nGood luck,\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nSaturday 12th January 2013.','DO NOT GET CARRIED AWAY...THE EUROZONE IS STILL IN POOR SHAPE...NOTHING IS FIXED YET','','inherit','open','closed','','1355-revision-v1','','','2014-01-20 14:00:43','2014-01-20 19:00:43','',1355,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/1355-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(3073,16,'2014-01-20 13:59:27','2014-01-20 18:59:27','<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>1. INTRODUCTION:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nWhat a great week for Fx traders. The last five days gave several great opportunities to make some money, there were really two main market movers that kept me interested.\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li>The JPY relentlessly weakening. For some reason I did not attempt to trade the YEN (JPY) crosses like the EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY , CAD/JPY and CHF/JPY as I felt that I was chasing the market and as I have indicated before it is not a good trading style or practice to adopt. I entered the USD/JPY on a pullback and hung on in there. Some great income. The move upwards in the YEN (JPY) I thought was coming to a close on several occasions and I did not want to be in the EUR/JPY or GBP/JPY in case we swung back violently. In addition, for my trading in 2013, it is all about risk management so I acted accordingly.</li>\r\n	<li>Super Mario......holy crap.........The guy says there was 100% agreement on not cutting EUR interest rates and we fly upwards taking all the EUR crosses and Cable for the long ride as well. It was the biggest one day move in the EUR/USD for a very, very long time. Recently we have traded on very low ATR\'s so this move was great...like the good old days. Then like a cherry on top of the \"Bakewell Tart\" (Google it, if you do not understand) the moves continued yesterday morning (Happy Days)...more $$$ and then I get a sweet trade short on GBP/USD for a 40% position size with 50 pips profit in it to round off the week.....sweet!!</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nI know, we had great China positive news that drove currencies around, in particular the Aussie and Kiwi, and, some interesting CAD news plus confirmation that the UK is really deep in the doo-doo but the YEN and Draghi were centre stage last week, in my opinion. What\'s next?..............I wish I knew....but it will probably be something with the word \"Cliff\" in it!!!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>2. THE VIEW FROM MY TRADING DESK:</strong></span>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>DO NOT GET CARRIED AWAY...THE EUROZONE IS STILL IN POOR SHAPE...NOTHING IS FIXED YET</strong></p>\r\nI just wanted to try and balance matters this week.\r\n\r\nThere is so much noise about the markets that following Draghi\'s press conference last Thursday  as the EUR rallied like a crazy man, or woman possessed to levels not seen for years that I actually for a moment thought that all the Eurozone problems were over. Smack my head against the wall....was I dreaming, was I half a bottle into Jack Daniels......no these were a few comments out on Twitter......My God, Twitter can be dangerous if you take it\'s comments verbatim.\r\n\r\nFor whatever reason and I am still struggling with this mentally... Draghi is talking up the Euro currency - why? What on earth is making the markets react the way they do. The EUR/USD rallied about 2% in the week...incredible. Bond yields are coming down but nothing is fixed. Last month at his press conference Draghi stated that there were conversations about reducing EUR interest rates and the currency got smacked. At Thursdays meeting all was sweet, no rate cut unanimous decision and the EUR/USD and all the cross currencies rose like a Salmon in B.C. leaping and jumping over rapids 6 feet in the air dodging \"Grizzlies\" on the way back upstream to it\'s spawning grounds....incredible. Draghi is screwing with the export capabilities that are going to be so crucial for growth in the Eurozone. Never mind Germany (they are the driving force of Europe - they can still export) , however  Spain, Greece, Portugal and the rest of the Eurozone still need to grow. They have to start pretty soon or we really will see disparate economic issues in the Eurozone....we will have a depression never mind recession. Even the German\'s cannot bail out the Eurozone alone and the ECB even with Super Mario at the helm cannot make a Rembrandt out of one of my paintings. The Eurozone needs to have, if it were a person, a good look at itself in the mirror and whilst it\'s there look in the background and see if it can see \"The can\" that has been kicked down the road so many times it must be like a tiny spec of dust on the mirror!\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>UNEMPLOYMENT</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>CONSUMER CONFIDENCE</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>GDP</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>PMi STATISTICS </strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>INCOME TAX AND STEALTH TAX RATES</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong> SOCIAL WELFARE COSTS &amp;  SPIRALING COSTS WITH GOVERNMENT BENEFIT SCHEMES</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>AUSTERITY MEASURES versus GROWTH </strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">These areas highlighted above are just a few of the problems still on the table for the Eurozone politicians to work through. They are both social and economic. The politicians and Civil Servants have been working a list similar to this one, probably with a few additional items contained therein for four years now and have made very little progress. Many would argue they are just delaying as there is no vision to actually sort these matters out. My belief is that politicians are not problem solvers they just attribute blame...so with that thought in mind that is why we have \"The Can\" being continually kicked down the road. Apart from choosing wine for the elaborate dinner menus at the EU summits I cannot think off the top of my head of a major achievement in the Eurozone by politicians in the last six months. Lots of promises......but bugger all action.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">We have the highest levels of Unemployment ever in the Eurozone since records began, as an area the total is above 11%. This in turn increases social welfare payments and reduces the tax intake. A double or triple whammy depending upon your viewpoint. The solution, is to increase the tax burden on the remainder to make up the shortfall. People then stop buying goods and services as they have reduced disposable income, confidence goes down as hard measures bite...and on it goes around and around.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">So, until something is actually done that gives the people who live in the Eurozone a positive outlook, do not get carried away with the politicians viewpoints or those of the ECB. They are so out of touch, it is baffling given what is and has been going on.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Trade carefully.......bad Eurozone news is ALWAYS a second or two away..............</p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>3. MY LONGER TERM TRADES:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nI have no long-term trades open in my \"Long-Term\" account. I tried a couple of times last week with the USD/JPY to keep a trade in position but I was stopped out.\r\n\r\nBut here are my plans, aims, thoughts: -\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">AUD/USD:</span>\r\nI was burned last year persisting with the AUD/USD short and while I believe Aussie news coming through is going to get decidedly worse as we move forward, I do not want to enter a trade until we test the 1.0630 level. I also want to see the China GDP data first before placing my trade. In the past week we had good China data, but the fact that after such good  news that we did not stretch that high and test makes me feel even more certain that the AUD/USD is one my next targets short on a longer-term basis. I just do not want to enter a trade at current levels.  A good  GDP number and we could be off to the races and 1.0630 could be breached, in fact, if we do get blowout numbers my short trade will be dead and buried.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">GBP/USD:</span>\r\nThe UK saw relief from the Olympics \"blip\" in statistics recently. That is now well gone and the chickens are coming home to roost one by one. News from the UK is basically poor and the fact that Chancellor Osborne is calling very openly for the GBP/USD to be lower than current levels to aid exports etc is more than just interesting. I see 1.5750 as my first short limit target.\r\n\r\nPullbacks with these two currencies next week and I will plunge in. I will tweet entries etc as I enter the trades.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>4. LOOKING INTO NEXT WEEK -  THESE ARE THE KEY SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJOR PAIRS:</strong></span>\r\n\r\n<strong>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3342. </strong>As stated last week we are still in a down sloping channel on the Monthly Chart. Terrific moves towards the latter end of last week, pushing this pair substantially higher. Personally, I feel that 1.3400 will offer a short opportunity as we head into confluences of resistance around 1.3380, then above 1.3400 the next stop is around 1.3455. Support will be back down at 1.3250 then 1.3150.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/EURUSD-MONTHLY-120113.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1378\" alt=\"EURUSD MONTHLY 120113\" src=\"http://www.thepipaccumulator.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/EURUSD-MONTHLY-120113-1024x562.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"562\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.6135.</strong> This pair is being dragged up by the EUR. The cross-rate effect of EUR/GBP will start to weigh in eventually and I think pressure this pair to the downside. Resistance lies at 1.6200, then 1.6250 if we ever get to those areas. Remember at 1.6300 the UK Chancellor, George Osborne, made his comments about cable being too strong so if the pair does really break higher be careful around this level in particular. Support to the downside rests at 1.6085, then 1.6045 and a big one at 1.6000.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/GBPUSD-240-120113.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1377\" alt=\"GBPUSD 240 120113\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/GBPUSD-240-120113.png\" width=\"660\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong>AUD/USD: Closing Price 1.0534.</strong> Bugger....this pair is heading lower too fast for my liking. From a personal perspective I want a re-test of 1.0630 so I can take a short trade. Will we get there...who knows? The range to play with the Aussie is 1.0500 to 1.0630.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/AUDUSD-DAILY-120113.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1379\" alt=\"AUDUSD DAILY 120113\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/AUDUSD-DAILY-120113.png\" width=\"660\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8358.</strong> This pair at the back of my mind I call the \"Doomsday\" pair. Another financial crash and I short this pair like crazy, and I mean crazy. I see 0.6500 in another crash situation. I am not however predicting or calling for a financial crash, let me just make myself clear on that point. I do however believe in my own mind that this pair is so far over-valued it\'s day is going to come and I hope I have my fingers ready on my trading computer when that day comes. I know, it is what it is and all that jazz but the Kiwi economy is not in that good a shape, why is it so high? Taking my emotion to one side for a minute, the levels to watch with this pair are; resistance 0.8375, then 0.8400. Short side support lies initially at 0.8300 down to 0.8240.\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/JPY: Closing Price 89.16.</strong> Is this pair ever going to pullback? Holy Mother of God, its rise (JPY weakness) is relentless.....will it ever stop. The simple truth (As Al Gore would say....) is that there is quite a bit more it can go to. On the Monthly Charts this pair is playing out an inverted \"Head and Shoulder\" pattern, from which, the measured move could take take it as high at 92.50 to 93.00. That\'s quite a move from where we are currently. It does not need to stop it can just keep going. Technical traders are saying over and over again that RSI (Relative Strength Indicator) is grossly over-bought, in fact it looks like it\'s the highest it\'s been on this pair for over 10 years. Logically, one would expect a pullback. But when did logic ever work in the day-to-day Forex market? Support should be good at around 88.60, maybe not a bad place to try and get long. I want 84.00....yeah, I know dream on..... Topside in the near term has to be huge at 90.00, then for me the inverted \"Head and Shoulder\" pattern plays out to completion. I read earlier this week that banks are stating 100.00 and I also read 110.00 as 2013-4 goals for this pair. Get the Jack and Diets ready!!\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.9133.</strong> Lost money on this pair this week trying to eek out a nice long trade-off 0.9200 support...crashed and burned on that one!! It\'s really all round numbers for me with this pair. Support 0.9100 then 0.9000 and resistance at 0.9200 then 0.9300.\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CAD: Closing Price 0.9846.</strong> I actually made money off the \"Loonie\" last week. Two quick fire trades on a news event...happy days. Support beckons at 0.9800 and then 0.9755. Would I just love to get long sub 0.9750 or what!!! Topside resistance comes in at 0.9880 and then 0.9920.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>5. MAJOR NEWS EVENTS THIS WEEK THAT INTEREST ME:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nLooking at The Forex Factory not much \"Red\" news this week of real interest to me.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: GBP - CPi and the BOE inflation letter should be interesting.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: AUD - Employment Numbers and Rate.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: CNY - GDP.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: GBP - Retail Sales.\r\n\r\n(Given that my target currencies looking forward are GBP and AUD these news events will either confirm or pour water over my thoughts).\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>6. CLOSING THOUGHTS AND COMMENTS:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nOn the face of things it looks like this week could be a slower week. However, do not forget the numpties in Washington are doing their best to f**k up the U.S. economy so be on guard for sound-bytes and ridiculous quotes based upon the party divide. These things can pull the markets around in the blink of an eye and really screw up your trending trades and land you in the crapper.\r\n\r\nTherefore, trade a little smaller position size and allow for volatility whilst the U.S. politicians strut their stuff on the TV and Radio stations.\r\n\r\nGood luck,\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nSaturday 12th January 2013.','DO NOT GET CARRIED AWAY...THE EUROZONE IS STILL IN POOR SHAPE...NOTHING IS FIXED YET','','inherit','open','closed','','1355-revision-v1','','','2014-01-20 13:59:27','2014-01-20 18:59:27','',1355,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/1355-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(3075,16,'2014-01-20 14:03:11','2014-01-20 19:03:11','<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>1. INTRODUCTION:</strong></span>\n\nHappy New Year 2013 to everyone and I hope you all had a great Christmas, or whatever you may have celebrated over the recent holiday break.\n\nBack in the chair again for only a couple of days this week, so this will be a very brief  \"Drive-Thru\" and as they used to say on the BBC  - \'normal service will be resumed shortly\'....in my case, it will be next week.\n\nI am still familiarizing myself with all the charts. The USD/JPY continues to surge onwards and upwards. The inverted \"Head and Shoulders\" pattern on the weekly chart is definitely in play with the measured move target around 92.00. The EUR/USD under some pressure, the break below 1.3100 should place a move towards 1.2800 in the slot. However, the reaction after Non Farm payrolls yesterday caused an initial 50-60 point break higher off the psychologically important round number support at 1.3000. I am expecting the downside pressure to return next week, but this is not guaranteed as we closed above 1.3050.\n\nApart from the JPY relentless rise (weakening), nothing much else has really changed. The major USD pairs are in the main still in the trading range channels that they were prior to the holidays. Being honest with you, I am struggling to feel the directions of the majors from the charts, from a macro level fundamentally I know where I feel they should be heading but technically I need verification by a true breakout/breakdown to support my beliefs. This has really been the case since October last year. At that time I was really heading up some great USD long positions, believing that the USD would strengthen across the board. This did not happen. As I have said before, the Commodity currencies really hold the key, they usually lead the way. The big problem is that equities have held up well causing a little bit of stalemate, as commodity currencies have been range bound.\n\nAs a result of this I am trading small positions.....waiting for the trades to come to me.\n\nThe trades that I am immediately interested in are: USD/JPY long and EUR/USD short. I will look hard at the AUD/USD short from above 1.0500 and the NZD/USD short from over 0.8300. The USD/CAD long I will ignore given the stress this pair caused me last year running up to the break before the holidays.\n\nI will be back on twitter next week and I will tweet entries. I want to try and get back to holding trades for days/weeks rather than hours, so this year I will be making a conscious effort to be spot on with entries.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>2. THE VIEW FROM MY TRADING DESK:</strong></span>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>HAS THE FED  MOVED THE GOALPOSTS?</strong></p>\nThis big news for me this week was on Thursday afternoon, the minutes from the December 2012 FED meeting. I was expecting nada...nothing at all.......we got 2013.\n\nSome of Ben\'s hangers-on are calling for the unlimited QE that was only very recently upped to $85 Billion purchases per month to end in 2013 and not the infinity date that was circulating of 2015. Yet again we have a little uncertainty in the markets, and, the markets hate uncertainty. The cry baby\'s on Wall Street need to have not just consistency, which, I can totally understand but they also want their hands held and a cuddle from Uncle Ben. (I do not mean the guy that makes all the rice dishes either) I mean Uncle Ben....the most powerful man in the world.\n\nThis change of date, or mere mention of it, in fact there really was no date in the first place if the truth be told, caused a bit of a wobble in the Fx markets. Wall Street (God Love them all) believed infinity meant infinity and that their pockets and wallets would be continually fed $$$ by Uncle Ben. <span style=\"color: #3366ff;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">I believe that the FED has already started its pullback from the \"Date Cliff\" by starting sound-bytes confirming the peg to the unemployment rate of 6.5% is the trigger and not a calendar date. When you look forward the chances of the U.S. unemployment rate being less than 7% at the end of 2013 looks pretty ambitious. I am thinking at least 2014 at the earliest and that blows hot water over the 2013 date from the December minutes.</span> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">The only chance of a 6.5% rate being achieved in my opinion is if 2 or 3 millions of Americans give up the chase of looking for a job and de-register from the system. Stranger things than this have happened....but I think even for that to happen is highly unlikely.</span></span>\n\nThe 2013 date put the fear of God into Wall Street as the thoughts of  FED tightening and interest rate increases hit home. Whilst, I think this headline is a bit of a loss leader it has without doubt made the market think beyond the next glass of wine at the end of the day. It does however make me think how is the FED going to unwind all of the easing without creating a void. Time will tell on this point. No doubt Ben has his thoughts and views, which he is playing very close to his chest.\n\nFrom my perspective, the \"Goalposts\" are still in the same position but I think 2013 was let out quite deliberately as 2015 may become 2014. Infinity will NOT be infinity. The key people around Ben like Janet Yellen are not dissenters, it was the fringe members of the FED committee who were quoted as being the ones talking about easing ending in 2013. Whether they did or did not talk about it is irrelevant now, the message that was wanted to be released has been done in a very clever way without Ben having to do it in a high profile way.....very clever if you ask me. Far too much intelligence shown........Ben could never be a politician.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>3. MY LONGER-TERM TRADES:</strong></span>\n\nCurrently I am in cash. There should be trades in this section next weekend.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>4. LOOKING AHEAD INTO NEXT WEEK......THE KEY SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS IN THE USD MAJORS:</strong></span>\n\n<strong>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3068</strong>. I was thinking of shorting around 1.3060 yesterday but decided to sit on my hands instead. I will look at this pair probably in the European session on Monday morning. I really hate trading the Sunday night in Asia. The initial resistance lies at 1.3100, yesterday we stopped at 1.3090, which, was interesting but I have a feeling that Sunday will see a test of 1.3100 unless we have some news over the weekend to move pressure to the short side of this pair. Long side resistance is at 1.3100 then 1.3150. Support lies at 1.3050, then 1.3000 and 1.2970.\n\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/EURUSD-W-050113.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1351\" alt=\"EURUSD W 050113\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/EURUSD-W-050113.png\" width=\"660\" /></a>\n\n<strong>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.6068.</strong> Cable sold off quite well during the week and retraced a little, but like the EUR/USD only a little yesterday. We still closed below 1.6100, in fact 1.6070 is a resistance point and that was where we closed. I am expecting GBP/USD to come under pressure next week and resume it\'s move lower. I am looking at 1.5750 as a level to aim for. There is NO good news in the UK. Every piece of good news is a temporary blip and the Brit \"Stiff Upper Lip\" is in play. If we break lower on Monday expect more during the coming week. Support levels are 1.6000, then 1.5980, then 1.5920, 1.5850 and 1.5750. There are few minor stop off points on the way in addition but these are more noticeable to look out for on the way lower. Should we break out to the long side after 1.6100, we target 1.6300 again.\n\n<strong>AUD/USD: Closing Price 1.0479.</strong> If we peak above 1.0520, I will be in short with a stop at 1.0580. 1.0450, then 1.0400 and the biggie at 1.0350 are the key support levels to the down side.\n\n<strong>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8309.</strong> I will be looking to enter short on Monday with this pair. My initial targets will be 0.8250, then 0.8200 then 0.8150. Long side resistance should we break higher is at 0.8350 and then 0.8400.\n\n<strong>USD/JPY: Closing Price 88.14</strong>. An inverted Head and Shoulders pattern off the weekly Chart is in play with the measured move coming in at just over 92.00. This pair is rather over-bought to say the least and it appears the entire world of forex is long this pair. That does not mean that it would be great to contrary and short it. Tres dangerous indeed. Shinzo Abe has made his intentions perfectly clear the JPY is to be weakened at all costs....you cannot fight a central bank not even the BOJ. Sanyo were calling for 100.00 in the USD/JPY recently as the target for Abe to aim at. Time will tell whether we get there but this pair could be the Fx trade of the year for most traders. You have to be patient as it consolidates the recent upward moves. If you are looking to get long wait for a pullback. The levels are: - Long side initial resistance 88.50 then 89.00 and 89.50 (but these levels are all minor). Support lies at 87.50 a great place to establish a long trade I think.\n\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/USDJPY-M-050113.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1350\" alt=\"USDJPY M 050113\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/USDJPY-M-050113.png\" width=\"660\" /></a>\n\n<strong>USD/CAD: Closing Price 0.9871.</strong> Support looms at 0.9850 and then 0.9820. Resistance is back at 0.9920 then 0.9970.\n\n<strong>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.9245.</strong> We sit above key support of  0.9240. Beneath here it\'s 0.9150. Long side resistance is at 0.9320 and then 0.9350.\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>5. MAJOR FOREX NEWS EVENTS ON MY RADAR NEXT WEEK:</strong></span>\n\nLooking at Forex Factory there are several \"Red Coded\" news events coming up next week that are of interest to all Fx traders but the one that stands out for me is on <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>Thursday  10th January</strong></span>, the ECB Press Conference. This item coupled with the interest rate decisions of the BOE and ECB always makes my early morning coffee much more fun. It all starts at 7.00am with the BOE rate decision followed by the ECB rate decision at 7.45am  and finally \"Super Mario\'s\" Press Conference at 8.30am.\n\nIn addition to the ECB Press Conference the same night (Thursday) there is at 8.30pm Chinese CPi year on year data. I am looking to enter trades on both the AUD and NZD so this news will be of interest to me as these currencies are affected by most Chinese data. Australian Trade Balance statistics (Monday) and monthly Retail Sales (Tuesday) both at 7.30pm also catch my eye.\n\n(All times quoted are New York time).\n\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>6. FINAL THOUGHTS:</strong></span>\n\nAs mentioned earlier, it may just be me, but I am finding the markets a little difficult at the moment to follow and track effectively.\n\nI think my process was not helped by the fact that I read over the holidays that several banks and major brokers claimed that 2012 was a particularly difficult year all round for traders both professionally and home based alike. It made me think and look back over the year I had, poor/average start, poor second quarter, reasonable third quarter and a flattish final quarter...well that\'s nothing to write home about, but, I kept my head above water. By all accounts that was an achievement.................I thought it was bloody hard work and that is why 2013 has to be an improvement.\n\nTrade nimble and trade within your account limits and your risk tolerance.\n\nScott Pickering\nThe Pip Accumulator\n5th January 2013','HAS THE FED MOVED THE GOALPOSTS?','','inherit','open','closed','','1334-autosave-v1','','','2014-01-20 14:03:11','2014-01-20 19:03:11','',1334,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/1334-autosave-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(3076,16,'2014-01-20 14:03:14','2014-01-20 19:03:14','<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>1. INTRODUCTION:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nHappy New Year 2013 to everyone and I hope you all had a great Christmas, or whatever you may have celebrated over the recent holiday break.\r\n\r\nBack in the chair again for only a couple of days this week, so this will be a very brief  \"Drive-Thru\" and as they used to say on the BBC  - \'normal service will be resumed shortly\'....in my case, it will be next week.\r\n\r\nI am still familiarizing myself with all the charts. The USD/JPY continues to surge onwards and upwards. The inverted \"Head and Shoulders\" pattern on the weekly chart is definitely in play with the measured move target around 92.00. The EUR/USD under some pressure, the break below 1.3100 should place a move towards 1.2800 in the slot. However, the reaction after Non Farm payrolls yesterday caused an initial 50-60 point break higher off the psychologically important round number support at 1.3000. I am expecting the downside pressure to return next week, but this is not guaranteed as we closed above 1.3050.\r\n\r\nApart from the JPY relentless rise (weakening), nothing much else has really changed. The major USD pairs are in the main still in the trading range channels that they were prior to the holidays. Being honest with you, I am struggling to feel the directions of the majors from the charts, from a macro level fundamentally I know where I feel they should be heading but technically I need verification by a true breakout/breakdown to support my beliefs. This has really been the case since October last year. At that time I was really heading up some great USD long positions, believing that the USD would strengthen across the board. This did not happen. As I have said before, the Commodity currencies really hold the key, they usually lead the way. The big problem is that equities have held up well causing a little bit of stalemate, as commodity currencies have been range bound.\r\n\r\nAs a result of this I am trading small positions.....waiting for the trades to come to me.\r\n\r\nThe trades that I am immediately interested in are: USD/JPY long and EUR/USD short. I will look hard at the AUD/USD short from above 1.0500 and the NZD/USD short from over 0.8300. The USD/CAD long I will ignore given the stress this pair caused me last year running up to the break before the holidays.\r\n\r\nI will be back on twitter next week and I will tweet entries. I want to try and get back to holding trades for days/weeks rather than hours, so this year I will be making a conscious effort to be spot on with entries.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>2. THE VIEW FROM MY TRADING DESK:</strong></span>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>HAS THE FED  MOVED THE GOALPOSTS?</strong></p>\r\nThis big news for me this week was on Thursday afternoon, the minutes from the December 2012 FED meeting. I was expecting nada...nothing at all.......we got 2013.\r\n\r\nSome of Ben\'s hangers-on are calling for the unlimited QE that was only very recently upped to $85 Billion purchases per month to end in 2013 and not the infinity date that was circulating of 2015. Yet again we have a little uncertainty in the markets, and, the markets hate uncertainty. The cry baby\'s on Wall Street need to have not just consistency, which, I can totally understand but they also want their hands held and a cuddle from Uncle Ben. (I do not mean the guy that makes all the rice dishes either) I mean Uncle Ben....the most powerful man in the world.\r\n\r\nThis change of date, or mere mention of it, in fact there really was no date in the first place if the truth be told, caused a bit of a wobble in the Fx markets. Wall Street (God Love them all) believed infinity meant infinity and that their pockets and wallets would be continually fed $$$ by Uncle Ben. <span style=\"color: #3366ff;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">I believe that the FED has already started its pullback from the \"Date Cliff\" by starting sound-bytes confirming the peg to the unemployment rate of 6.5% is the trigger and not a calendar date. When you look forward the chances of the U.S. unemployment rate being less than 7% at the end of 2013 looks pretty ambitious. I am thinking at least 2014 at the earliest and that blows hot water over the 2013 date from the December minutes.</span> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">The only chance of a 6.5% rate being achieved in my opinion is if 2 or 3 millions of Americans give up the chase of looking for a job and de-register from the system. Stranger things than this have happened....but I think even for that to happen is highly unlikely.</span></span>\r\n\r\nThe 2013 date put the fear of God into Wall Street as the thoughts of  FED tightening and interest rate increases hit home. Whilst, I think this headline is a bit of a loss leader it has without doubt made the market think beyond the next glass of wine at the end of the day. It does however make me think how is the FED going to unwind all of the easing without creating a void. Time will tell on this point. No doubt Ben has his thoughts and views, which he is playing very close to his chest.\r\n\r\nFrom my perspective, the \"Goalposts\" are still in the same position but I think 2013 was let out quite deliberately as 2015 may become 2014. Infinity will NOT be infinity. The key people around Ben like Janet Yellen are not dissenters, it was the fringe members of the FED committee who were quoted as being the ones talking about easing ending in 2013. Whether they did or did not talk about it is irrelevant now, the message that was wanted to be released has been done in a very clever way without Ben having to do it in a high profile way.....very clever if you ask me. Far too much intelligence shown........Ben could never be a politician.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>3. MY LONGER-TERM TRADES:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nCurrently I am in cash. There should be trades in this section next weekend.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>4. LOOKING AHEAD INTO NEXT WEEK......THE KEY SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS IN THE USD MAJORS:</strong></span>\r\n\r\n<strong>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3068</strong>. I was thinking of shorting around 1.3060 yesterday but decided to sit on my hands instead. I will look at this pair probably in the European session on Monday morning. I really hate trading the Sunday night in Asia. The initial resistance lies at 1.3100, yesterday we stopped at 1.3090, which, was interesting but I have a feeling that Sunday will see a test of 1.3100 unless we have some news over the weekend to move pressure to the short side of this pair. Long side resistance is at 1.3100 then 1.3150. Support lies at 1.3050, then 1.3000 and 1.2970.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/EURUSD-W-050113.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1351\" alt=\"EURUSD W 050113\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/EURUSD-W-050113.png\" width=\"660\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.6068.</strong> Cable sold off quite well during the week and retraced a little, but like the EUR/USD only a little yesterday. We still closed below 1.6100, in fact 1.6070 is a resistance point and that was where we closed. I am expecting GBP/USD to come under pressure next week and resume it\'s move lower. I am looking at 1.5750 as a level to aim for. There is NO good news in the UK. Every piece of good news is a temporary blip and the Brit \"Stiff Upper Lip\" is in play. If we break lower on Monday expect more during the coming week. Support levels are 1.6000, then 1.5980, then 1.5920, 1.5850 and 1.5750. There are few minor stop off points on the way in addition but these are more noticeable to look out for on the way lower. Should we break out to the long side after 1.6100, we target 1.6300 again.\r\n\r\n<strong>AUD/USD: Closing Price 1.0479.</strong> If we peak above 1.0520, I will be in short with a stop at 1.0580. 1.0450, then 1.0400 and the biggie at 1.0350 are the key support levels to the down side.\r\n\r\n<strong>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8309.</strong> I will be looking to enter short on Monday with this pair. My initial targets will be 0.8250, then 0.8200 then 0.8150. Long side resistance should we break higher is at 0.8350 and then 0.8400.\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/JPY: Closing Price 88.14</strong>. An inverted Head and Shoulders pattern off the weekly Chart is in play with the measured move coming in at just over 92.00. This pair is rather over-bought to say the least and it appears the entire world of forex is long this pair. That does not mean that it would be great to contrary and short it. Tres dangerous indeed. Shinzo Abe has made his intentions perfectly clear the JPY is to be weakened at all costs....you cannot fight a central bank not even the BOJ. Sanyo were calling for 100.00 in the USD/JPY recently as the target for Abe to aim at. Time will tell whether we get there but this pair could be the Fx trade of the year for most traders. You have to be patient as it consolidates the recent upward moves. If you are looking to get long wait for a pullback. The levels are: - Long side initial resistance 88.50 then 89.00 and 89.50 (but these levels are all minor). Support lies at 87.50 a great place to establish a long trade I think.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/USDJPY-M-050113.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1350\" alt=\"USDJPY M 050113\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/USDJPY-M-050113.png\" width=\"660\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CAD: Closing Price 0.9871.</strong> Support looms at 0.9850 and then 0.9820. Resistance is back at 0.9920 then 0.9970.\r\n\r\n<strong>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.9245.</strong> We sit above key support of  0.9240. Beneath here it\'s 0.9150. Long side resistance is at 0.9320 and then 0.9350.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>5. MAJOR FOREX NEWS EVENTS ON MY RADAR NEXT WEEK:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nLooking at Forex Factory there are several \"Red Coded\" news events coming up next week that are of interest to all Fx traders but the one that stands out for me is on <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>Thursday  10th January</strong></span>, the ECB Press Conference. This item coupled with the interest rate decisions of the BOE and ECB always makes my early morning coffee much more fun. It all starts at 7.00am with the BOE rate decision followed by the ECB rate decision at 7.45am  and finally \"Super Mario\'s\" Press Conference at 8.30am.\r\n\r\nIn addition to the ECB Press Conference the same night (Thursday) there is at 8.30pm Chinese CPi year on year data. I am looking to enter trades on both the AUD and NZD so this news will be of interest to me as these currencies are affected by most Chinese data. Australian Trade Balance statistics (Monday) and monthly Retail Sales (Tuesday) both at 7.30pm also catch my eye.\r\n\r\n(All times quoted are New York time).\r\n\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>6. FINAL THOUGHTS:</strong></span>\r\n\r\nAs mentioned earlier, it may just be me, but I am finding the markets a little difficult at the moment to follow and track effectively.\r\n\r\nI think my process was not helped by the fact that I read over the holidays that several banks and major brokers claimed that 2012 was a particularly difficult year all round for traders both professionally and home based alike. It made me think and look back over the year I had, poor/average start, poor second quarter, reasonable third quarter and a flattish final quarter...well that\'s nothing to write home about, but, I kept my head above water. By all accounts that was an achievement.................I thought it was bloody hard work and that is why 2013 has to be an improvement.\r\n\r\nTrade nimble and trade within your account limits and your risk tolerance.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\n5th January 2013','HAS THE FED MOVED THE GOALPOSTS?','','inherit','open','closed','','1334-revision-v1','','','2014-01-20 14:03:14','2014-01-20 19:03:14','',1334,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/1334-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(7943,1,'2016-05-21 10:36:30','2016-05-21 15:36:30','<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong> INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nLast week was as they say…”One helluva week”.\r\n\r\nI made the decision ahead of the FOMC minutes release to basically have a clear out of many open trades, reduce position sizes, play with stops and take pips and profits off the table. I was lucky the day coincided with another BREXIT poll. This one was mainly based around London and published in the Evening Standard newspaper the night before (for me). It was a big “remain” vote ahead of BREXIT and the cable rallied.\r\n\r\nThe cable rally helped GBP/NZD longs, EUR/GBP shorts and generally gave the FX markets a window when a sigh of relief appeared to be taken. I capitalized on these moves and took just over 1,000 pips out of the market in a couple of hours.\r\n\r\nIn fact, looking back over the past month or so, ever since I decided that TWITTER was full of bullsh*t and ego driven alleged traders with no skin in the game, which in turn, resulted in me pulling back from TWITTER on my main feed @pipaccumulator, my trading performance has improved….go figure that one?\r\n\r\nWhilst it means my exposure to new subscribers is considerably less, my trading fortunes have improved. Obviously, my brain is now in turmoil; how do I strike that balance of tweeting, adding fresh subscribers to the PREMIUM SERVICE and maintaining the run of great momentum and probability trades. That is a bottle of wine, or maybe the Jack and Diet debate that needs to be done over this weekend.\r\n\r\nNevertheless, this month so far the PREMIUM SERVICE has added 1,766 pips and year to date the total is 5,580 pips. Whilst we are not yet at the end of the month, the profit/loss ratio is great and income per trade is up. As my buddy Roger says “Happy Days!!”\r\n\r\nShifting gears…\r\n\r\nFREE PREMIUM SERVICE subscriptions, just to remind you; you could be the next winner of a free PREMIUM SERVICE subscription; if you subscribe to receive this free blog via my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nYou are automatically entered into a free monthly draw, once you’ve subscribed. Each month during 2016 one lucky blog subscriber will receive a free subscription to the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\nAs I am the UK and IRELAND in June and early July the next winner will enjoy a subscription until my summer break in mid July. The next draw after the one in a couple of weeks will then be early September after my summer break from blogging.\r\n\r\nMy plans for the short tour of the UK and IRELAND (see chart below with itinerary) are intensifying a lot more now. My power point software skills are being pushed to the limits, never mind the continual refining of the presentation content.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/TOUR-DATES-2016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7597\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/TOUR-DATES-2016.png\" alt=\"TOUR DATES 2016\" width=\"630\" height=\"397\" /></a>\r\n\r\nI hope to meet and greet many traders on this trip and I am really excited about the presentations that are scheduled. Please come along if you can and bring friends who you think may be interested in starting to trade the Forex market.\r\n\r\nSpaces are limited so to register for an event, please go to my landing page on <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> and click on LIVE EVENTS. The drop down menu there has all the information that you will require, plus the email address to use to register at to reserve a space. I would place it here but I would end up getting thousand’s of SPAM emails, which I want to avoid.\r\n\r\nPlease note that because of the TOUR, copies of this blog will have a revised format on the following dates: -\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">18<sup>th</sup> June 2016\r\n25<sup>th</sup> June 2016\r\n2<sup>nd</sup> July 2016</p>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber, fee based trade set-up option for Forex traders regardless of experience or background. I provide traders suggested trades, and some market commentary related to open trades or factors within the overall market that have my interest.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and the various trade styles plus how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nAdditional information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE you will require a credit card\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><u>PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION COSTS:</u></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Details of features and benefits of a PREMIUM SERVICE subscription can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the dropdown tab at the top of the page entitled HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE OF THE PREMIUM SERVICE. To subscribe follow the SUBSCRIBE HERE tab.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">PREMIUM SERVICE subscription costs are as follows: -</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">CAD$240.00 - 4 weeks (1 month)\r\nCAD$500.00 - 10 weeks (3 months)\r\nCAD$750.00 - 20 weeks (6 months)\r\nCAD$1,250.00 - 40 weeks (12 months)\r\n<u>PLUS</u>: Existing PLATINUM MEMBERS (annual subscribers) can re-subscribe for a further 12 months for CAD$1,000.00</p>\r\nI work for 40 weeks or so a year, the annual subscription is based on 40 published blogs of the WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU. For the remaining 12 weeks of the year, I am usually around tweeting and managing existing LIVE trades.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><u>PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE THIS MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:</u></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">NET PIPS THIS MONTH SO FAR:            +1,766\r\nNET PIPS THIS YEAR SO FAR:                +5,580</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">NET PIPS 2015:       +10,686\r\nNET PIPS 2014:       +11,209</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">(I trade basically for 10 months a year. I do not trade from mid July through early September or mid December through early January).</p>\r\nIf you want more data or detail about the performance and the tabs on my website landing page do not answer your questions, contact me directly and I will supply the trading data you require. There are NO secrets. There are many, many spreadsheets detailing performance trade by trade and by trade and by trading style, way too many to place in this blog. If you are interested in the PREMIUM SERVICE and want more information, all you have to do is ask.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>LAST WEEK’S NEWS – MY THOUGHTS:</strong>\r\n\r\nWhilst there were a few high note events and pieces of news last week, as far as I am concerned the FOMC minutes took first place and all else dropped down to the lower peg.\r\n\r\nEverything last week was really focused on would the FED mention hikes in the minutes? Without doubt, ahead of the data release, there was a coordinated\r\n\r\neffort by the FED to start talking up the possibility of a hike in June or July. Significantly, there were no comments from Janet Yellen or her boy Stanley Fischer and whilst we are really none the wiser, the market is what it is, and is starting to show a reaction to a rate hike possibility. (I am looking at this later in the blog, so I will keep my powder dry until later).\r\n\r\nThe minutes were a little HAWKISH and the USD gained strength across the board, at the moment we are consolidating that move and the prior moves of USD buying.\r\n\r\nThere are huge event risks, which I talked about a couple of weeks ago, still hanging over the markets and I believe that there is a realization that the FED needs to put something away for a rainy day given all the risks ahead and therefore the desire to hike is stronger. Yellen is a DOVE, she is not a risk taker and she is surrounded by a group of individuals, who are at times loose canons but they all fall in line when she has them in a room and they have to vote. When they are not in that room to vote they say what they want and it can be very misleading, especially as the non-voting members of the Fed can cloud the issue.\r\n\r\nSo, I am not getting carried away in any direction at the moment, other than I do think that the FED has to act sooner rather than later and the dithering of the past will just kill them moving forward if they continue with a wait and see policy. The Fed is in great danger of being behind the curve and the continued dithering causes uncertainly. Allegedly, uncertainty is one thing that the FED does not want to create. So far in my opinion, they are guilty if this.\r\n\r\nRight now, it looks like the USD is consolidating for a move higher back towards 100.00 and beyond. Lets see what happens.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>WHAT’S BIG ON MY MIND:</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>THE NIGHTMARE SCENARIO</strong></p>\r\nI trade, I blog and do my very best to provide my subscribers with trade set-ups to make them and myself a nice little income. I am now using the phrase “STEADY EDDIE” a lot as I believe it’s all about consistency and letting the trades come to you. There is little point trading for trade’s sake. It’s not my style and I believe that one should stick to one’s strengths rather than have weaknesses exposed.\r\n\r\nOver the past week or so as I analyze the geopolitical events and major monetary policy decisions that are on the horizon, I am constantly getting myself geared up for what I am calling the NIGHTMARE SCENARIO.\r\n\r\nI am of the opinion that we are heading feet first into a full-blown recession, eyes open and there seems to be an atmosphere around of complacency that all economic matters in the world, whilst not perfect are moving along slowly but in the right direction.\r\n\r\nAs stated I think a little differently. I believe we are on the brink of recession in Canada, the USA, the UK and the rest of Europe and probably Japan as well. I know people will quote government economic data, I believe a lot of this data is massaged to the extent that at times it seems to be detached from reality on the ground in Main Street.\r\n\r\nEverything for me is based around simplicity, why over-complicate matters. Over complication creates misleading interpretation, which, in my opinion, leads to further complication and I strongly believe that this was at the core of the securitization issues that led to the 2007-8 financial crash.\r\n\r\nWe are at the precipice at the moment with so many economies around the world. One jitter, one bad move and like a house of cards it all falls down.\r\n\r\nLet me elaborate…\r\n\r\nRightly or wrongly, it’s my blog and I can what I want.\r\n\r\nKeeping it really simple, I believe that housing is about 75-85% of the catalyst for everything in an economy. It is the circle from which it all happens, employment, wages the lot.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>If the housing market is moving, people are always doing home improvements or buying goods, equipment and services.</li>\r\n 	<li>Contractors are always busy and small business grows.</li>\r\n 	<li>People are hired and wages improve.</li>\r\n 	<li>The tax intake for an economy improves through both direct and indirect taxes.</li>\r\n 	<li>Local economies expand as local councils/towns invest in infrastructure and services.</li>\r\n 	<li>Central government invests in infrastructure and grand projects.</li>\r\n 	<li>Bank lending expands and businesses grow and have expansion plans.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nWe are not really getting this. As soon as you see green shoots of growth we are brought back to earth with a bang, as bad news always seems to follow good news these days… why is this?\r\n\r\nYes, I believe that the FED dithered in 2015 and missed the moment. Janet Yellen had to raise rates in December 2015 to save face.\r\n\r\nYes, I believe that the German approach of Austerity has set back the EUROZONE economically for decades. The handling of the GREECE debt is a disgrace. The constant refusal to offer debt relief to a country that has more chance, of launching a space program, and being the first to have a man on Mars, than repay its loans before ARMAGEDDON hits, beggars belief.\r\n\r\nYes, I believe that market correlations are so inter-twinned now that we are very quickly approaching the “one world – one market” scenario. Many might argue to a large extent we are already there.\r\n\r\nYes, I also believe that to a very large extent central banks are now largely emasculated. I was and still am, undecided 100%... (do you feel my indecision?) on the side that Central Bank monetary policy is the biggest factor in price movement in the currency markets. Yet, I believe that we have come to the end of the road regarding fiscal initiatives and structural reforms are now required. The markets are now immune to a large extent with the CURRENCY WARS. Previous moves after central bank policy initiatives by the BOJ and ECB highlight this point perfectly.\r\n\r\nFor nearly my entire trading career, all I have heard month after month are central bank governors or presidents stating that they are not achieving their growth GDP objectives. They reset the poorly set out goals to lower levels and then stretch out the timeline to meet these goals which are still NEVER achieved. This happens every few months from every central bank.\r\n\r\nCentral banks want inflation. They are just not getting it. In fact we have had more DEFLATION than INFLATION in the last 10 years. All central banks do is set targets to please I do not know who, they fail to meet these and they do a reset and push out… We need structural reforms within governments.\r\n\r\nPoliticians will not commit. They are scared sh**less at the thought. Politicians are only interested in popularity; they have a four-year time line that’s all.\r\n\r\nBack to my nightmare….\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>DONALD TRUMP – THE U.S. PRESIDENTIAL CIRCUS</li>\r\n 	<li>HOUSING BUBBLES</li>\r\n 	<li>BREXIT and UK FRAGILITY</li>\r\n 	<li>EUROZONE IMPLOSION / CONTAGION EFFECT</li>\r\n 	<li>JAPAN FAILURE</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nIf the opening paragraphs weren’t enough to keep me 24 x 5 at my screens, trading those 5 sub titles above will do just that.\r\n\r\nDONALD TRUMP – THE U.S. PRESIDENTIAL CIRCUS:\r\n\r\nHe’s probably a very nice and interesting guy. He is a salesman, he is used to getting his own way and I totally get why American voters who have been kept in check, ruled by fear for so long see THE DONALD as a breath of fresh air. They are buying a promise that TRUMP will sort out the paralysis party divide driven Washington club that is only interested in themselves and their party with two fingers raised to the electorate that elected them….. I get it.\r\n\r\nThe elitism of Washington and failed leaders from the past who were never able to get a political union to pass key policies has caught up with the nations capital. It has been seen as dysfunctional and heartless in the past, a change is coming sooner or later. Whether you like THE DONALD or not, he has changed the face of U.S. politics, it is a reality show on TV and the media who are just as big dinosaurs as Washington, were caught off guard and simply did not know how to react. The media in the U.S. is bought off just like Oil and Pharmaceuticals. The media had to shift gear as they were seen to be biased which we all know they are, but they have to attempt to hide that bias.\r\n\r\nTHE DONALD shake up, should he be elected in November will in my opinion cause a stock market sell off. There will be so much uncertainty. Even now as the presumptive nominee, he keeps away from policy in preference to personal attacks, and politicians not being the brightest cannot see through this and attack back. In this game THE DONALD has better than a 50-50 chance of a win.\r\n\r\nTHE DONALD &amp; THE U.S. PRESIDENTIAL CIRCUS = uncertainty.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nHOUSING BUBBLES:\r\n\r\nWhilst we are bouncing off the bottom economically all over the world certain pockets, mainly capital and major cities such as LONDON, SYDNEY, AUCKLAND, TORONTO, VANCOUVER, SAN FRANCISCO, NEW YORK etc. have housing bubbles and prices are skyrocketing. Central banks and governments want to manage this and not fuel the bubbles, but the balancing act they are required to perform in relation to less well-off parts of their country is a difficult one.\r\n\r\nWe are one geopolitical event away from a HOUSING CRASH as a bubble bursts; will this be another “House of Cards”?\r\n\r\nRemember in the currency wars, lower interest rates are seen as key. Lower interest rates will only fuel local housing bubbles.\r\n\r\nHOUSING BUBBLES = uncertainty.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nBREXIT:\r\n\r\nThere is a belief that at the end of the day a “Better the devil you know than the devil you don’t” approach to voting IN or OUT will apply in the UK. I am now reading articles telling me that educated people want to REMAIN and the less well educated want a BREXIT.\r\n\r\nIn 2016, isn’t it just great the way we pigeon hole and pre-judge facts. Frankly, whilst it is relatively straightforward to put an X in a box to stay or go, it’s not that simple.\r\n\r\nAs the TV debates happen the facts will come out and more of a balanced discussion can take place. The media in the UK is the same as the U.S., largely it is biased and very opinionated and whilst voting habits will be directed by what channel and what newspaper you read, nearly all decisions in the UK fall in the hands of the 10-15% floating voter. Are these people well educated or not well educated, I doubt all the research in the world could answer this.\r\n\r\nIn addition, the polls got the Scottish referendum and the UK election that followed arseways, so I for one would not be beholden to a UK poll result.\r\n\r\nI am not 100% convinced on all the facts that I am told to believe about the merits of a REMAIN or BREXIT vote. More debate is definitely required, and more qualification of the alleged facts. This is NOT a done deal as we are led to believe, it is complicated.\r\n\r\nLet me give you one fact that I am hearing that I have yet to read about; tradesmen in the UK are really pissed off with the freedom of employment policy within the EUROPEAN UNION. From distressed markets in mainland Europe, tradesman come to the UK, to set up, it’s all above board. However, as a result of even greater competition in an already distressed UK market they squeeze margins that are already tight. The trade unions are NOT happy; never mind your local plumber, electrician, builder etc. These people account for a huge number of voters especially when you add in families etc. I am told that the building / home improvement industry is virtually BREXIT committed.\r\n\r\nRemember Mark Carney BOE governor, with his failed forward guidance policy for the markets. His forward guidance was totally 100% market misleading. The classic being, when unemployment fell to 7% that was Carney’s original trigger to raise rates. Unemployment is now at 5% and the BOE is talking more about DOVISH policies rather than HAWKISH.\r\n\r\nDavid Cameron (Prime Minister) talks about how good the UK economy is yet here we are still on the bottom, no movement, what is wrong?\r\n\r\nAre all the statistics that we are given to measure performance by, so manipulated through years of massaging that they do not adequately reflect a true position anymore?\r\n\r\nAm I such a cynic to believe that as governments receive the true data, they hide away from the public eye and spend their days popping Prozac and hiding under their desks? Politicians lie and they mislead to maintain popularity and votes…there are “LYIN’ TEDS” everywhere around the globe!!\r\n\r\nBREXIT and UK FRAGILITY = uncertainty.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nEUROZONE IMPLOSION / CONTAGION EFFECT:\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, the EUROZONE is still very fragile and one step from dropping off the cliff. The refugee crisis, GREECE, unemployment, DEFLATION and a UK BREXIT… take your pick.\r\n\r\nMario Draghi (ECB, President) has gone as far as he can, the markets have basically told him to feck off. He has NO bullets, NO bazookas left.\r\n\r\n27 countries in the EUROZONE need to implement major structural reforms to improve and bring back growth to the stagnating economies. As I wrote before, there is more chance of GREECE winning the space race to Mars.\r\n\r\nWhat happens should a BREXIT vote prevail in the UK? I am of the opinion that many of the EUROZONE populist parties are ready, waiting and watching ready to capitalize, such as: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>GERMANY:                 Alternative for Germany</li>\r\n 	<li>FRANCE:                     National Front</li>\r\n 	<li>ITALY:                          Five Stars</li>\r\n 	<li>SPAIN:                         Podermos</li>\r\n 	<li>NETHERLANDS:      Party for Freedom</li>\r\n 	<li>AUSTRIA:                   Austrian Freedom Party</li>\r\n 	<li>FINLAND:                  Finns Party</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nOn Friday last week I noticed a great quote from Jeroen Dijsselbloem, leader of the EUROZONE Finance Ministers, it said “FX intervention to improve competitive unwise”. Holy Mother of God what rock has he been hiding under.\r\n\r\nEUROZONE IMPLOSION / CONTAGION EFFECT = uncertainty.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nJAPAN FAILS:\r\n\r\nFrom the country that has the largest QE and QQE program ever, we still have problems. Reputations are on the line, Abe (Prime Minister) and Kuroda (BOJ); are for want of a better phrase looking down the barrel of a shotgun.\r\n\r\nWe are now a couple of years or so into Abe’s policy initiatives to bring Japan out of recession, stimulate growth and provide a stabilizing effect with the YEN for businesses moving forward. Initially it worked, the YEN was weakened and businesses could export cheaper as the weaker YEN created greater competitiveness. Of late this has faltered and like most economies Japan is fragile.\r\n\r\nThe debate is on regarding whether the YEN is a flight to safety currency moving forward, that aside there is NOT an infinitum amount of time for Abe. The last time Kuroda came to the markets he disappointed big time. It has taken a lot of jawboning to strengthen the YEN.\r\n\r\nJAPAN FAILURE = uncertainty.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>DONALD TRUMP – THE U.S. PRESIDENTIAL CIRCUS</li>\r\n 	<li>HOUSING BUBBLES</li>\r\n 	<li>BREXIT and UK FRAGILITY</li>\r\n 	<li>EUROZONE IMPLOSION / CONTAGION EFFECT</li>\r\n 	<li>JAPAN FAILURE</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nWe have an inter-connected world and the domino effect is real and threatening when you have as I see it so many precipice issues.\r\n\r\nIt’s all about confidence.\r\n\r\nAt the end of the day FEAR and GREED will rule as they always do.\r\n\r\nMost central banks have nothing to add should we hit a recession, which is my fear; my nightmare scenario. The kitchen sink and all fittings plus the all bathroom items and fittings have been thrown at markets to solidify and stimulate. Only the extreme unconventional measures are left, such as negative interest rates and literally the buying of stocks, as many central banks have no more bonds or fixed assets left to purchase.\r\n\r\nFrom a trading perspective there would be massive volatility, with huge worldwide implications… will my nightmare become a reality or partial reality?\r\n\r\nWill one domino fall taking the rest with it?\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBER EXCLUSIVE AREA:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>THE PREMIUM SERVICE – TRADING REVIEW:</strong>\r\n\r\nTRADING REVIEW:\r\n\r\nA great week of trading with just under 1,000 net pips added. Year to Date we now stand at over 5,500 pips. When you consider that at the end of February we were below zero, I am very happy with the turnaround.\r\n\r\nI slowed down after the FOMC minutes to let the markets consolidate. I have several fresh trades for this week based off some nice retraces last Thursday / Friday.\r\n\r\nThe “G” trades are now well off, what I would call potential entry levels. I will take a longer look at these probably after Monday’s close and re-evaluate.\r\n\r\nFrom a macro level the profit/loss ratio is good, trading with wider stops and smaller position sizes gives us greater flexibility and for the foreseeable future I see no reason to change away from this. Trading is all about the longer term and NOT high volume scalping trades, which are more risky in my opinion given the short term trading horizons.\r\n\r\nI have to get back into CHF trades sooner rather than later.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nSUBSCRIPTIONS:\r\n\r\nPricing options are now in CAD$.\r\n\r\nSILVER membership has been removed; being honest, I know a few of you have traded up, but all SILVER memberships really attracted were gamblers, who were time consuming, just looking for multiple trades per day.\r\n\r\nFrankly I want traders with me who are interested in the long-term, with steady income requirements that can supplement existing household income by being a part-time trader or those looking to develop a full-time income but being based upon longer-term horizons.\r\n\r\nThose of you who sign up, or have signed up for annual subscriptions have been raised to PLATINUM SUBSCRIBERS (the highest level of subscription). The initial benefit of this is that annual subscribers who renew for a further 12 months will receive a discount from the published price option. Currently it is CAD$1,250.00 to initially subscribe for 12 months with renewals for an annual PLATINUM subscriber at CAD$1,000.00.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>CHARTS THAT ARE ATTRACTING MY INTEREST:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDSEK-DAILY-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7936\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDSEK-DAILY-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"USDSEK DAILY 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/NZDCHF-D-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7935\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/NZDCHF-D-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"NZDCHF D 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/GBPCHF-DAILY-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7934\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/GBPCHF-DAILY-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"GBPCHF DAILY 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/EURGBP-D-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7933\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/EURGBP-D-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"EURGBP D 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/EURCHF-D-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7932\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/EURCHF-D-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"EURCHF D 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>TRADES REVIEW:</strong>\r\n\r\nThe excel spreadsheets below details current LIVE and pending LIMIT ORDER trades: -\r\n\r\n<strong><a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/LIVE-TRADES-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7917\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/LIVE-TRADES-21052016.png\" alt=\"LIVE TRADES 21052016\" width=\"796\" height=\"590\" /></a> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/LIMIT-ORDERS-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7916\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/LIMIT-ORDERS-21052016.png\" alt=\"LIMIT ORDERS 21052016\" width=\"671\" height=\"457\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> COMING UP THIS WEEK:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>THIS WEEK’S FOREX NEWS THAT INTERESTS ME:</u>\r\n\r\n(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market other than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to <a href=\"http://www.forexfactory.com\">www.forexfactory.com</a> and <a href=\"http://www.tradingeconomics.com\">www.tradingeconomics.com</a> for a more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).\r\n\r\nSUNDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: CAD – BOC Rate Statement.\r\nWEDNESDAY: NZD – Annual Budget Release.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: N/A.\r\n<u>THE USD MAJORS – MY THOUGHTS (A REVIEW): </u>\r\n\r\n(In this section I have as usual kept my charts as minimalist as possible. With regards to charting in my opinion less is more!! I hope that they are clear. All readers regardless of level of experience should be able to follow my thoughts from my comments to the levels on the charts with ease)\r\n\r\nMy comments are contained on the charts.\r\n\r\nEUR/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.1221\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/EURUSD-D-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7926\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/EURUSD-D-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"EURUSD D 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nGBP/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.4497\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/GBPUSD-D-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7927\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/GBPUSD-D-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"GBPUSD D 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nAUD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.7222\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/AUDUSD-D-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7925\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/AUDUSD-D-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"AUDUSD D 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nNZD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.6762\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/NZDUSD-D-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7928\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/NZDUSD-D-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"NZDUSD D 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.3113\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDCAD-D-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7929\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDCAD-D-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"USDCAD D 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF - Weekly Closing Price: 0.9900\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDCHF-DAILY-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7937\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDCHF-DAILY-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"USDCHF DAILY 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY - Weekly Closing Price: 110.11\r\n\r\n<u><a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDJPY-D-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7931\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDJPY-D-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"USDJPY D 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a></u>\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u>MY CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nThe FOMC drove the markets last week and the USD strengthened further on the back of a HAWKISH April meeting minutes. After, the data release we have seen to a large extent consolidation moves, which are completely normal. It is now this coming week when I will be entering back into the market once again, albeit slow and steady given all the warnings that I see that I have written about in this week’s blog.\r\n\r\nWe are light on news that interests me this week.\r\n\r\nBe prepared the BOC could cut. The wild fires around Fort McMurray will be a huge burden on the Canadian economy and I think that for once Stephen Poloz (BOC, Governor) may want to be a head of the curve. It may not happen but be ready just in case.\r\n\r\nI think that the oil price has peaked, so should the BOC cut and the oil price falls the USD/CAD could be back at 1.3600 very quickly.\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nTake care,\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n<h6>DATE: 21st May 2016\r\nBLOG REFERENCE: #103 PREMIUM SERVICE VERSION</h6>\r\n&nbsp;','THE NIGHTMARE SCENARIO','','inherit','closed','closed','','7939-revision-v1','','','2016-05-21 10:36:30','2016-05-21 15:36:30','',7939,'http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/7939-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(8068,1,'2016-06-25 01:04:41','2016-06-25 06:04:41','As you are aware, I am currently on TOUR in the UK and IRELAND with a series of presentations titled: -\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>AN INTRODUCTION TO FOREX with THE PREMIUM SERVICE</strong></p>\r\nCurrently, I am in Dublin before moving back to the UK with the final sessions in Heathrow and South Mimms / Potters Bar.\r\n\r\nMy presentation schedule is below. Places are still available if you want to attend one of the seminars. You can just turn up at the venue, or if you prefer to register to reserve a seat you can do this by emailing me at events@thepremiumservice.com.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/TOUR-DATES-2016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7597\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/TOUR-DATES-2016.png\" alt=\"TOUR DATES 2016\" width=\"630\" height=\"397\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAfter the tour is complete, I will return to publishing the usual versions of the blog. The next scheduled full version of the “DRIVE THRU” will be posted on 11<sup>th</sup> July 2016.\r\n\r\nSo we have finally heard the view of the UK voters. BREXIT is on and the UK has now entered a period of great uncertainty. The uncertainty is not just focused on the UK, regular readers will be aware from blogs over the last six months or so that a EUROZONE CONTAGION is next on the cards. If these two events were not enough to spice up Forex Trading over the coming months, we will be closing the year with the U.S. Presidential Election with a very real possibility that THE DONALD could be the next leader of the free world.\r\n\r\nYou already know what I will be writing about on July 11<sup>th</sup> when I am back at home and posting the next full version of this blog.\r\n\r\nIn the interim, many brokers partially closed on the 24<sup>th</sup> June in the name of protecting clients funds. They had already boosted margin requirements substantially due to expected volatility. Personally, I see this volatility / uncertainty situation being with us for weeks not just a day, so it will be interesting to see when margin requirements return lower.\r\n\r\nI have not heard of brokers in trouble as a result of Friday’s moves after the BREXIT result, but that does not mean that there was no fallout.\r\n\r\nFor PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers, I will be emailing copies of the following excel spreadsheets to your inbox: -\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>The month to-date trade summaries for RADAR, FLASH, FUNDAMENTAL and POSITION TRADES.</li>\r\n 	<li>Monthly and year to date PREMIUM SERVICE trading gross profit summaries.</li>\r\n 	<li>Excel spreadsheets detailing the current LIVE trades and LIMIT orders in place with my brokers.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nTake care,\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nDATE: 25<sup>th</sup> June 2016\r\nBLOG VERSION: FREE NEWSLETTER #207\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','BREXIT vote completed; next CONTAGION in the EUROZONE and then THE DONALD','','publish','open','closed','','brexit-vote-completed-next-contagion-eurozone-donald','','','2016-06-25 01:04:41','2016-06-25 06:04:41','',0,'http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?p=8068',0,'post','',0),(8072,1,'2016-07-02 10:40:44','2016-07-02 15:40:44','As you are aware, I am currently on TOUR in the UK  with a series of presentations titled: -\r\n\r\nAN INTRODUCTION TO FOREX with THE PREMIUM SERVICE\r\n\r\nCurrently, I am in London Heathrow with the final sessions tomorrow in South Mimms / Potters Bar.\r\n\r\nMy presentation schedule is below. Places are still available if you want to attend one of the seminars. You can just turn up at the venue, or if you prefer to register to reserve a seat you can do this by emailing me at events@thepremiumservice.com.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/TOUR-DATES-2016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7597\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/TOUR-DATES-2016.png\" alt=\"TOUR DATES 2016\" width=\"630\" height=\"397\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAfter the tour is complete, I will return to publishing the usual versions of the blog. The next scheduled full version of the “DRIVE THRU” will be posted on 11<sup>th</sup> July 2016.\r\n\r\nSo we have finally heard the view of the UK voters. BREXIT is on, however I have a theory / suspicion call it what you will, which, I will outline in next weeks blog when I am back home on Montreal.\r\n\r\nTrading away from home and moving about is very hard. Also, I miss my multi-screens that give me my overall view all at once. In June, the PREMIUM SERVICE made money and is on target for 2016 but the income stream certainly slowed down for me whilst I was on the road.\r\n\r\nThis year I will trade through August, although there will be no DRIVE THRU blogs, so the present uncertainty in the markets will give me an excellent base to work from.\r\n\r\nFor PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers, I will be emailing copies of the following excel spreadsheets to your inbox: -\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>The monthly and year to-date trade summaries for RADAR, FLASH, FUNDAMENTAL and POSITION TRADES.</li>\r\n 	<li>Monthly and year to date PREMIUM SERVICE trading gross profit summaries.</li>\r\n 	<li>The excel spreadsheets detailing LIVE TRADES and a list of current LIMIT ORDERS.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nTake care,\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nDATE: 2<sup>nd</sup> July 2016\r\nBLOG VERSION: FREE NEWSLETTER #208\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','BREXIT done…but is it?','','publish','open','closed','','brexit-donebut-is-it','','','2016-07-02 10:40:44','2016-07-02 15:40:44','',0,'http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?p=8072',0,'post','',0),(8070,1,'2016-06-25 01:04:41','2016-06-25 06:04:41','As you are aware, I am currently on TOUR in the UK and IRELAND with a series of presentations titled: -\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>AN INTRODUCTION TO FOREX with THE PREMIUM SERVICE</strong></p>\r\nCurrently, I am in Dublin before moving back to the UK with the final sessions in Heathrow and South Mimms / Potters Bar.\r\n\r\nMy presentation schedule is below. Places are still available if you want to attend one of the seminars. You can just turn up at the venue, or if you prefer to register to reserve a seat you can do this by emailing me at events@thepremiumservice.com.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/TOUR-DATES-2016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7597\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/TOUR-DATES-2016.png\" alt=\"TOUR DATES 2016\" width=\"630\" height=\"397\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAfter the tour is complete, I will return to publishing the usual versions of the blog. The next scheduled full version of the “DRIVE THRU” will be posted on 11<sup>th</sup> July 2016.\r\n\r\nSo we have finally heard the view of the UK voters. BREXIT is on and the UK has now entered a period of great uncertainty. The uncertainty is not just focused on the UK, regular readers will be aware from blogs over the last six months or so that a EUROZONE CONTAGION is next on the cards. If these two events were not enough to spice up Forex Trading over the coming months, we will be closing the year with the U.S. Presidential Election with a very real possibility that THE DONALD could be the next leader of the free world.\r\n\r\nYou already know what I will be writing about on July 11<sup>th</sup> when I am back at home and posting the next full version of this blog.\r\n\r\nIn the interim, many brokers partially closed on the 24<sup>th</sup> June in the name of protecting clients funds. They had already boosted margin requirements substantially due to expected volatility. Personally, I see this volatility / uncertainty situation being with us for weeks not just a day, so it will be interesting to see when margin requirements return lower.\r\n\r\nI have not heard of brokers in trouble as a result of Friday’s moves after the BREXIT result, but that does not mean that there was no fallout.\r\n\r\nFor PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers, I will be emailing copies of the following excel spreadsheets to your inbox: -\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>The month to-date trade summaries for RADAR, FLASH, FUNDAMENTAL and POSITION TRADES.</li>\r\n 	<li>Monthly and year to date PREMIUM SERVICE trading gross profit summaries.</li>\r\n 	<li>Excel spreadsheets detailing the current LIVE trades and LIMIT orders in place with my brokers.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nTake care,\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nDATE: 25<sup>th</sup> June 2016\r\nBLOG VERSION: FREE NEWSLETTER #207\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','BREXIT vote completed; next CONTAGION in the EUROZONE and then THE DONALD','','inherit','closed','closed','','8068-revision-v1','','','2016-06-25 01:04:41','2016-06-25 06:04:41','',8068,'http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/8068-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(8073,1,'2016-07-02 10:40:44','2016-07-02 15:40:44','As you are aware, I am currently on TOUR in the UK  with a series of presentations titled: -\r\n\r\nAN INTRODUCTION TO FOREX with THE PREMIUM SERVICE\r\n\r\nCurrently, I am in London Heathrow with the final sessions tomorrow in South Mimms / Potters Bar.\r\n\r\nMy presentation schedule is below. Places are still available if you want to attend one of the seminars. You can just turn up at the venue, or if you prefer to register to reserve a seat you can do this by emailing me at events@thepremiumservice.com.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/TOUR-DATES-2016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7597\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/TOUR-DATES-2016.png\" alt=\"TOUR DATES 2016\" width=\"630\" height=\"397\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAfter the tour is complete, I will return to publishing the usual versions of the blog. The next scheduled full version of the “DRIVE THRU” will be posted on 11<sup>th</sup> July 2016.\r\n\r\nSo we have finally heard the view of the UK voters. BREXIT is on, however I have a theory / suspicion call it what you will, which, I will outline in next weeks blog when I am back home on Montreal.\r\n\r\nTrading away from home and moving about is very hard. Also, I miss my multi-screens that give me my overall view all at once. In June, the PREMIUM SERVICE made money and is on target for 2016 but the income stream certainly slowed down for me whilst I was on the road.\r\n\r\nThis year I will trade through August, although there will be no DRIVE THRU blogs, so the present uncertainty in the markets will give me an excellent base to work from.\r\n\r\nFor PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers, I will be emailing copies of the following excel spreadsheets to your inbox: -\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>The monthly and year to-date trade summaries for RADAR, FLASH, FUNDAMENTAL and POSITION TRADES.</li>\r\n 	<li>Monthly and year to date PREMIUM SERVICE trading gross profit summaries.</li>\r\n 	<li>The excel spreadsheets detailing LIVE TRADES and a list of current LIMIT ORDERS.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nTake care,\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nDATE: 2<sup>nd</sup> July 2016\r\nBLOG VERSION: FREE NEWSLETTER #208\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','BREXIT done…but is it?','','inherit','closed','closed','','8072-revision-v1','','','2016-07-02 10:40:44','2016-07-02 15:40:44','',8072,'http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/8072-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(8074,1,'2016-07-05 08:22:17','2016-07-05 13:22:17','','PREM SERV PROFITS1 JUNE2016','','inherit','open','closed','','prem-serv-profits1-june2016','','','2016-07-05 08:28:51','2016-07-05 13:28:51','',5000,'http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/PREM-SERV-PROFITS1-JUNE2016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(8075,1,'2016-07-05 08:22:20','2016-07-05 13:22:20','','PREM SERV PROFITS2 JUNE2016','','inherit','open','closed','','prem-serv-profits2-june2016','','','2016-07-05 08:29:02','2016-07-05 13:29:02','',5000,'http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/PREM-SERV-PROFITS2-JUNE2016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(8076,1,'2016-07-05 08:22:25','2016-07-05 13:22:25','','RADAR TRADES JUNE2016','','inherit','open','closed','','radar-trades-june2016','','','2016-07-05 08:25:26','2016-07-05 13:25:26','',2524,'http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/RADAR-TRADES-JUNE2016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(8077,1,'2016-07-05 08:22:27','2016-07-05 13:22:27','','RADAR TRADES YTD JUNE 2016','','inherit','open','closed','','radar-trades-ytd-june-2016','','','2016-07-05 08:25:36','2016-07-05 13:25:36','',2524,'http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/RADAR-TRADES-YTD-JUNE-2016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(8078,1,'2016-07-05 08:22:31','2016-07-05 13:22:31','','FLASH TRADES JUNE2016','','inherit','open','closed','','flash-trades-june2016','','','2016-07-05 08:23:58','2016-07-05 13:23:58','',2711,'http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/FLASH-TRADES-JUNE2016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(8079,1,'2016-07-05 08:22:33','2016-07-05 13:22:33','','FLASH YTD JUNE 2016','','inherit','open','closed','','flash-ytd-june-2016','','','2016-07-05 08:24:13','2016-07-05 13:24:13','',2711,'http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/FLASH-YTD-JUNE-2016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(8080,1,'2016-07-05 08:22:37','2016-07-05 13:22:37','','FUN1 JUNE2016','','inherit','open','closed','','fun1-june2016','','','2016-07-05 08:26:20','2016-07-05 13:26:20','',3106,'http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/FUN1-JUNE2016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(8081,1,'2016-07-05 08:22:38','2016-07-05 13:22:38','','FUN2 JUNE2016','','inherit','open','closed','','fun2-june2016','','','2016-07-05 08:26:28','2016-07-05 13:26:28','',3106,'http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/FUN2-JUNE2016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(8082,1,'2016-07-05 08:22:40','2016-07-05 13:22:40','','FUNYTD JUNE2016','','inherit','open','closed','','funytd-june2016','','','2016-07-05 08:26:42','2016-07-05 13:26:42','',3106,'http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/FUNYTD-JUNE2016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(8083,1,'2016-07-05 08:22:46','2016-07-05 13:22:46','','POSTITION JUNE 2016','','inherit','open','closed','','postition-june-2016','','','2016-07-05 08:27:51','2016-07-05 13:27:51','',6965,'http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/POSTITION-JUNE-2016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(8084,1,'2016-07-05 08:22:50','2016-07-05 13:22:50','','POSITION YTD JUNE 2016','','inherit','open','closed','','position-ytd-june-2016','','','2016-07-05 08:28:03','2016-07-05 13:28:03','',6965,'http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/POSITION-YTD-JUNE-2016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(8085,1,'2016-07-05 08:22:55','2016-07-05 13:22:55','','PIP COMPARISONS JUNE 2016','','inherit','open','closed','','pip-comparisons-june-2016','','','2016-07-05 08:31:13','2016-07-05 13:31:13','',6869,'http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/PIP-COMPARISONS-JUNE-2016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(8086,1,'2016-07-05 08:23:00','2016-07-05 13:23:00','','RISK-REWARD RATIOS JUNE2016','','inherit','open','closed','','risk-reward-ratios-june2016','','','2016-07-05 08:29:50','2016-07-05 13:29:50','',5002,'http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/RISK-REWARD-RATIOS-JUNE2016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(8093,1,'2016-07-05 08:30:31','2016-07-05 13:30:31','<section class=\"one-sixth first\">\r\n<h4>Completed Consolidated Performance Analysis Archives\r\n(Previously RISK/REWARD analysis):</h4>\r\n</section><section class=\"five-sixths\">\r\n<div class=\"one-half first\">\r\n<h2>This Year\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/RISK-REWARD-RATIOS-JUNE2016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-8086\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/RISK-REWARD-RATIOS-JUNE2016.png\" alt=\"RISK-REWARD RATIOS JUNE2016\" width=\"554\" height=\"628\" /></a></h2>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"one-half\">\r\n<h2>PREVIOUS YEARS\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/completed-trades-risk-reward-analysis/ps-risk-reward-31122015/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7054\"><img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-7054\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/PS-RISK-REWARD-31122015.png\" alt=\"PS RISK REWARD 31122015\" width=\"645\" height=\"796\" /></a>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/PREM-SERV-RISK-REWARD-31122014-YTD.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-4964\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/PREM-SERV-RISK-REWARD-31122014-YTD.png\" alt=\"PREM SERV RISK-REWARD 31122014 YTD\" width=\"645\" height=\"804\" /></a></h2>\r\n</div>\r\n</section>','CONSOLIDATED PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS (PREVIOUSLY RISK/REWARD ANALYSIS)','','inherit','closed','closed','','5006-revision-v1','','','2016-07-05 08:30:31','2016-07-05 13:30:31','',5006,'http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/5006-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(8108,1,'2016-07-08 16:09:28','2016-07-08 21:09:28','','AUDUSD D 09072016','','inherit','open','closed','','audusd-d-09072016','','','2016-07-09 06:42:01','2016-07-09 11:42:01','',8123,'http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/AUDUSD-D-09072016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(8109,1,'2016-07-08 16:09:34','2016-07-08 21:09:34','','EURUSD D 09072016','','inherit','open','closed','','eurusd-d-09072016','','','2016-07-09 06:41:39','2016-07-09 11:41:39','',8123,'http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/EURUSD-D-09072016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(8110,1,'2016-07-08 16:09:42','2016-07-08 21:09:42','','GBPUSD D 09072016','','inherit','open','closed','','gbpusd-d-09072016','','','2016-07-09 06:41:51','2016-07-09 11:41:51','',8123,'http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/GBPUSD-D-09072016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(8111,1,'2016-07-08 16:09:44','2016-07-08 21:09:44','','NZDUSD D 09072016','','inherit','open','closed','','nzdusd-d-09072016','','','2016-07-09 06:42:13','2016-07-09 11:42:13','',8123,'http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/NZDUSD-D-09072016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(8112,1,'2016-07-08 16:09:48','2016-07-08 21:09:48','','USDCAD D 09072016','','inherit','open','closed','','usdcad-d-09072016','','','2016-07-09 06:42:22','2016-07-09 11:42:22','',8123,'http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/USDCAD-D-09072016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(8113,1,'2016-07-08 16:09:50','2016-07-08 21:09:50','','USDCHF D 09072016','','inherit','open','closed','','usdchf-d-09072016','','','2016-07-09 06:42:37','2016-07-09 11:42:37','',8123,'http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/USDCHF-D-09072016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(8114,1,'2016-07-08 16:09:52','2016-07-08 21:09:52','','USDJPY D 09072016','','inherit','open','closed','','usdjpy-d-09072016','','','2016-07-09 06:43:00','2016-07-09 11:43:00','',8123,'http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/USDJPY-D-09072016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(8115,1,'2016-07-08 16:09:56','2016-07-08 21:09:56','','AUDNZD WEEKLY 09072016','','inherit','open','closed','','audnzd-weekly-09072016','','','2016-07-09 06:18:23','2016-07-09 11:18:23','',8123,'http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/AUDNZD-WEEKLY-09072016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(8116,1,'2016-07-08 16:10:03','2016-07-08 21:10:03','','AUDUSD MONTHLY 09072016','','inherit','open','closed','','audusd-monthly-09072016','','','2016-07-09 06:19:21','2016-07-09 11:19:21','',8123,'http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/AUDUSD-MONTHLY-09072016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(8117,1,'2016-07-08 16:10:05','2016-07-08 21:10:05','','EURGBP MONTHLY 09072016','','inherit','open','closed','','eurgbp-monthly-09072016','','','2016-07-09 06:40:41','2016-07-09 11:40:41','',8123,'http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/EURGBP-MONTHLY-09072016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(8118,1,'2016-07-08 16:10:12','2016-07-08 21:10:12','','GBPAUD MONTHLY 09.07.2016','','inherit','open','closed','','gbpaud-monthly-09-07-2016','','','2016-07-09 06:39:52','2016-07-09 11:39:52','',8123,'http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/GBPAUD-MONTHLY-09.07.2016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(8119,1,'2016-07-08 16:10:15','2016-07-08 21:10:15','','GBPCAD MONTHLY 09.07.2016','','inherit','open','closed','','gbpcad-monthly-09-07-2016','','','2016-07-09 06:40:05','2016-07-09 11:40:05','',8123,'http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/GBPCAD-MONTHLY-09.07.2016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(8120,1,'2016-07-08 16:10:17','2016-07-08 21:10:17','','GBPCHF MONTHLY 09.07.2016','','inherit','open','closed','','gbpchf-monthly-09-07-2016','','','2016-07-09 06:40:22','2016-07-09 11:40:22','',8123,'http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/GBPCHF-MONTHLY-09.07.2016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(8121,1,'2016-07-08 16:10:19','2016-07-08 21:10:19','','GBPNZD MONTHLY 09072016','','inherit','open','closed','','gbpnzd-monthly-09072016','','','2016-07-09 06:28:55','2016-07-09 11:28:55','',8123,'http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/GBPNZD-MONTHLY-09072016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(8122,1,'2016-07-08 16:10:22','2016-07-08 21:10:22','','NZDUSD MONTHLY 09072016','','inherit','open','closed','','nzdusd-monthly-09072016','','','2016-07-09 06:19:02','2016-07-09 11:19:02','',8123,'http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/NZDUSD-MONTHLY-09072016.png',0,'attachment','image/png',0),(8123,1,'2016-07-09 06:45:12','2016-07-09 11:45:12','<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong> INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nI’m back…I sure know how to pick dates for a sales tour in Europe! If it wasn’t BREXIT it was the UEFA EURO 2016 Football that played havoc at times with swings in attendances!\r\n\r\nOverall, the attendances at the seminars were below what I had expected. When they clashed with UK/IRELAND based matches attendance was poor and when they didn\'t it was good. Having said that I met some really nice people, who will be reading this blog for the first time; welcome! Make the most of this as, next week I am away in Saratoga Springs watching Dave Matthews in concert so the week after that - the 22<sup>nd</sup> of July will be my last blog until I return to blogging after the summer doldrums in early/middle September.\r\n\r\nHowever, for PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers please note that I will be trading throughout the “blog break” this year. Each weekend, I will send summaries via email and update the website and any market thoughts will come either via twitter or the odd email.\r\n\r\nI must admit I found it very difficult trading whilst away from my multi-screen office environment. Even if I run out of computer screens I augment my options by adding in a few laptops and iPad’s if required. At yesterdays NFP I had 12 screens open. Traveling through BREXIT with a laptop and an iPhone and iPAD was hard, in fact given the fact that I trade through seven brokers it was too much for hotel Wi-Fi and even creating hot-spots didn’t help too much either. I missed lots of trades that I had hoped to participate in, so I am now eagerly awaiting the reverse moves, albeit I think we will have a bit of a break and more uncertainty until that happens.\r\n\r\nI am certainly far from being an advocate of over-trading, but I missed so much of that fecking cable move lower across a multitude of pairs I am primed and raring to go! Although my stature does NOT reflect this, I am like a coiled cobra waiting to pounce. Now there’s a vision for all of you who have met me!!\r\n\r\nFrom a trading perspective over the past few days, I only really got back in front of my screens on Wednesday afternoon. My wife and I stayed downtown Montreal as soon as we returned back to Canada to see Sting and Peter Gabriel in concert (ROCK, PAPER SCISSORS TOUR). It was a great gig and although I still have a bit of jet lag, I am looking forward to getting my teeth back into this mess of what is loosely called a market.\r\n\r\nSection 4 (PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS ONLY) this week, is really extended above the usual size as I have so many thoughts and ideas to share with subscribers. I have four weeks of trade thoughts and ideas and other stuff stuck in my brain that I need to spew out.\r\n\r\nMoving on, for anyone new to this blog…\r\n\r\nFREE PREMIUM SERVICE subscriptions, just to remind you; you could be the next winner of a free PREMIUM SERVICE subscription; if you subscribe to receive this free blog via my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nYou are automatically entered into a free monthly draw, once you’ve subscribed. Each month during 2016 one lucky blog subscriber will receive a free subscription to the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\nThe next draw will be early September when I return from my summer break.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber, fee based trade set-up option for Forex traders regardless of experience or background. I provide traders suggested trades, and some market commentary related to open trades or factors within the overall market that have my interest.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and the various trade styles plus how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nAdditional information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE you will require a credit card.\r\n\r\n<u>PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION COSTS:</u>\r\n\r\nDetails of features and benefits of a PREMIUM SERVICE subscription can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the dropdown tab at the top of the page entitled HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE OF THE PREMIUM SERVICE. To subscribe follow the SUBSCRIBE HERE tab.\r\n\r\nPREMIUM SERVICE subscription costs are as follows: -\r\n\r\nCAD$240.00 - 4 weeks (1 month)\r\nCAD$500.00 - 10 weeks (3 months)\r\nCAD$750.00 - 20 weeks (6 months)\r\nCAD$1,250.00 - 40 weeks (12 months)\r\n<u>PLUS</u>: Existing PLATINUM MEMBERS (annual subscribers) can re-subscribe for a further 12 months for CAD$1,000.00\r\n\r\nI work for about 50 weeks a year. Subscriptions are based on 40 published blogs of the WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU per year. For the remaining 10 weeks, I am around tweeting, posting and managing existing LIVE trades, although my market activity is reduced.\r\n\r\n<u>PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE THIS MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:\r\n</u>\r\nNET PIPS TO THE MONTH SO FAR:       +381 pips\r\nNET PIPS THIS YEAR SO FAR:                +6,501 pips\r\n\r\nNET PIPS 2015:       +10,686\r\nNET PIPS 2014:       +11,209\r\n\r\n(I trade basically for 10 months a year. I do not trade from mid July through early September or mid December through early January).\r\n\r\nIf you want more data or detail about the performance and the tabs on my website landing page do not answer your questions, contact me directly and I will supply the trading data you require. There are NO secrets. There are many, many spreadsheets detailing performance trade by trade and by trade and by trading style, way too many to place in this blog. If you are interested in the PREMIUM SERVICE and want more information, all you have to do is ask.\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>LAST WEEK’S NEWS – MY THOUGHTS:</strong>\r\n\r\nU.S. NON-FARM PAYROLLS:\r\n\r\nVery little to say this week other than what a f**ked up marketplace we have. The moves after NFP were just bloody stupid. They made no sense at all to me. I fully realize that at times as a retail trader we are just the equivalent of a pimple on a banks a*se. But come on for God’s sake these moves to take out both longs and shorts in the retail market are becoming quite boring and I now think that there is much more to this than meets the eye.\r\n\r\nAt the NFP data release the EUR/USD went to 1.1000 on the back of quite astonishingly good data. Within 30 minutes it’ spiked to 1.1120. Retail clients to a large extent were wiped out at both ends. Usually its just cable that does this… I hate cable.\r\n\r\nPost NFP was as crazy / volatile as you are ever going to see and please be careful we have a very thinly traded Asian market at the open on Sunday to drive these moves further. It will not be until Tuesday next week when the dust will settle on NFP.\r\n\r\nThen of course…wait for it; is the FED rate hike on for September? At the moment I don\'t think I can go there.\r\n\r\nNZD – INTEREST RATE CUTS ON HOLD:\r\n\r\nJust for the record; I now hate the NZD as much, in fact not to upset my NZD subscribers too much, right now I hate it more than the cable. For me to actually put that in print is huge.\r\n\r\nWhat is the name of Wheelers second in command, who is that flute?\r\n\r\nI was at the concert and I glanced at my iPhone and saw the NZD/USD climbing like feck. A little earlier, the AUD/NZD looked like it was going to break out and I had a spring in my step (another vision for you), it fell over 100 pips on the back of the RBNZ comments.\r\n\r\nMy thoughts are as follows: - fundamentally, in my opinion the NZD economy is in the crapper. It will be a great short trade. Right now it is riding the central bank comments and on the basis that interest rates are nicely positive with both antipodean currencies it is attracting a great deal of carry-trade interest. However, the fundamentals in New Zealand are not good; a housing bubble, lower dairy prices and a China slowdown. The writing is on the wall it’s just a case of waiting and dare I say it, being patient.\r\n\r\nI have multiple short NZD positions in NZD/USD and AUD/NZD (long). I am not at all close to RISK limits in any of the POSITION, FUNDAMENTAL or RADAR trades but I do not want to hold them all should the NZD/USD spike. At the moment, I am thinking that the RADAR TRADE will be sacrificed with a loss of about 150 pips. It is the largest position size and although I cut it back size wise on the original test of 0.7300 as a precaution, I have let this one run away a little for a few sessions.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>WHAT’S BIG ON MY MIND:</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>GET READY IN SPRING 2017 THERE WILL BE ANOTHER BREXIT VOTE</strong></p>\r\nSo there it is in black and white.\r\n\r\nWhy would I make such a wild prediction?\r\n\r\nTwo reasons: -\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>I am being told the wilder the crazier, the wilder the blog headline the more followers I will get. So get ready for the Mark Carney ate my hamster headline!But more importantly,</li>\r\n 	<li>I believe that this is a possibility. Why?</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nI could write for pages and pages on this subject and having tasted, smelt and drank the English air recently the thoughts could just flow. I will however try to be concise (if that is ever possible for a Scoucer?), and provide my thought process in some order to make it easy for the reader to follow.\r\n\r\nThe EUROZONE is basically a f*ck up of its own making but it gets by despite it’s ever growing list of shortcomings. The country head politicians are about as useful as a condom seller outside a monastery, for those offended by that statement try “as much use a chocolate teapot” instead! They are like all politicians, only interested in votes and maintaining popularity to hopefully get re-elected and continue the gravy train ride that most of them are on. Then we have the non-elected Brussels bureaucrats so full of self-importance that I am surprised any of them can hear what is being discussed at meetings as this self-importance has their heads so far up their own arse’s that none of them can hear what anyone is saying. Over-paid, over-pensioned and with zero accountability to voters… a classic civil service environment but with huge salaries and perks.\r\n\r\nDespite this backdrop and with continual can kicking down the road without actually addressing any issues, the EUROZONE has so far muddled its way sort of sideways.\r\n\r\nThe EUROZONE has a history of poor selling to its electorate. It is a bureaucracy first to protect its existence at Brussels, which overrides the abilities of many of its elected politicians to put across coherent arguments on matters of importance.\r\n\r\nWhat do the following all have in common?\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Maastricht treaty 1992</li>\r\n 	<li>Nice treaty 2001</li>\r\n 	<li>Lisbon treaty 2008</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nOn A Referendum The Dutch rejected the first and the Irish rejected both of the others.\r\n\r\nWhat did the EUROPEAN UNION do in these instances?\r\n\r\nAfter running to the nearest toilet the Brussels bureaucracy allowed a quiet cooling off period for a few months. The country politicians were given sales training and told to go back to their electorates and advise them with strong balanced discussions and arguments on how to vote the correct way in the national interest. Four or five months later on the re-vote the desired result was achieved. “Mulligans” (Do-overs) do exist in politics!!\r\n\r\nAm I saying that the UK will get a second bite of the cherry? One should never say never in politics, never rule out anything, politics is a game, it is at times the best reality TV you will ever witness.\r\n\r\nThe Lisbon treaty contains article 50, which is at the core of the next move for the UK. The UK has to evoke article 50 to start the exit process. David Cameron, I quite like him, he looks like a leader and he did the honorable thing and resigned following the exit vote. However, he delayed the start of article 50 to at least November 2016 by stating this should be led my a new leader of his party and the new Prime Minister. Over the past week or so there has been muttering about it not being evoked until the spring of 2017. I can imagine if you voted for the BREXIT hearing this news and reading those headlines would piss you off a bit to say the least. Why the delay?\r\n\r\nThis is politics. The UK understandably wants side deals in place prior to article 50 being triggered. It does not want a vacuum.\r\n\r\nHowever, the cynic in me believes that one other possible reason for this is to draw out the uncertainty for as long as possible to gather more public opinion on if you could vote again now…how would you vote, would you change sides?\r\n\r\nIt is very hard to fathom. Both the REMAIN and BREXIT sides fought on fear rather than facts. Having watched, read, listened and discussed over a glass or three of RED as much as possible around BREXIT, my thoughts are that the population were sold on fear and very little on facts. The result was 52% v 48% it was not 70% v 30% so in my eyes, not that convincing, and when one analyses the vote via region the conclusions are easy to draw.\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>ENGLAND outside LONDON:I am originally from the north of England. There is a huge belief that the government of the day only really cares about London, no matter what political party is in power.The BREXIT vote won out in every region of the England because it was a protest against the London biased politicians…just my opinion.</li>\r\n 	<li>SCOTLAND:The Scottish voted overwhelmingly to remain in the EUROPEAN UNION.The REMAIN vote succeeded in Scotland as there is still a belief that Scotland will achieve independence and a vote to REMAIN will show that should independence finally win through on a second test in Scotland the EUROPEAN UNION would feel obligated to give Scotland support. Again, this is just my opinion, I know this is a very over simplified view but keeping things simple is the best way to approach these matters in my opinion.</li>\r\n 	<li>NORTHERN IRELAND:Northern Ireland voted for REMAIN and I can only assume that this was for the following reasons. EUROZONE business investment in Northern Ireland is massive. The fear of a cut and unemployment would create massive job uncertainty into a troubled area that is only now getting back on its feet. Plus geographically Northern Ireland is closer to THE REPUBLIC of IRELAND (it is land attached) and the cross border trade route is crucial to the north as well as the south and this economic stability would be threatened with the BREXIT vote.</li>\r\n 	<li>LONDON:Always going to vote to remain with the EUROPEAN UNION. The financial centre employs so many people, the threat of a drop in house prices would crucify most London property owners, and therefore the status quo was always the best option.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThe popular vote won out in favour of BREXIT, as we all know. For whatever reasons the key players have left the field… JOHNSON, CAMERON and LAFARGE.\r\n\r\nHaving just come back from the UK, if I heard it once I heard the same comment 50 times from previous BREXIT voters… Looking at what happened after the result, if I had the chance again, I would vote REMAIN, I was only really protest voting.\r\n\r\nThere has been the petition of over a million signatures that now means that parliament must discuss the result via debate. This will happen I presume once it’s tabled and the discussion in parliament will hear in the October/ November parliamentary timetable.\r\n\r\nSo, was what happened after the result a surprise?\r\n\r\nIt was to the bookmakers and polls…once again that\'s three in a row in the UK that the bookies and polls failed to get the result predicted.\r\n\r\nGBP nose-dived, it has staged a little pullback but it is in my opinion heading lower. On the night the GBP/USD was at 1.5000 now it\'s at 1.2900, the GBP/NZD was at 2.0600 now it’s at 1.7750. There were also huge drops for the GBP/CAD, GBP/AUD and GBP/CHF as well a nice climb for the EUR/GBP.\r\n\r\nIn section 4, I will be looking in greater depth at the opportunities with trading cable moving forward.\r\n\r\nMark (ignore my forward guidance, it is there to mislead you) Carney, governor of the BOE has promised support and rate cuts are on the cards to support cable and the city. The FTSE rallied like a rat up a drainpipe on this news… yippee free money, who gives a sh*t about the economy. The FTSE is above the pre BREXIT highs as a result.\r\n\r\nThe big news moving forward, that has yet to hit home is regarding foreign investment into the UK, in particular London through the housing market.\r\n\r\nMy buddies in the UK have told me that literally after the BREXIT result, business came to a halt, the orders stopped flowing in… it was like all things came to a stop. I have friends in both the service and manufacturing industry and both told me the same story. Housing sales virtually stopped. I can debate how over-priced the London property market is for hours on end. It is what it is and without doubt lack of foreign investment in this area will send shock waves through all markets and this will without any doubt hit the cable and send it lower.\r\n\r\nHow low can it (GBP/USD) go?\r\n\r\nWhen I did my seminars back on June 17<sup>th</sup> June 18<sup>th</sup> in Brentwood ahead of the BREXIT vote I talked in terms of GBP/USD spiking down to 1.3000 on a BREXIT result. I now think that much lower is the possibility given the masterly inactivity vis-a-via real news on facts about moving forward. The Conservative party needs to elect a new leader and Prime Minister to replace David Cameron and the Labour opposition under Jeremy Corbyn is the biggest nonsense in British politics period, end of story. Nigel Lafarge has resigned as UKIP leader and Boris (where’s my comb) Johnson has fecked off the face of the planet. This is just more uncertainty and when you add in the hard line talk emanating from the EUROPEAN UNION country leaders or bureaucrats is it any wonder the markets do not know their arse from their elbows. They have to tow a hard line and be consistent to stop CONTAGION threats. But this does keep the cable under pressure as a result.\r\n\r\nAll of these factors are creating a void, a vacuum within which discussions between the UK and the EUROPEAN UNION away from the roving eye of the press can take place in background to try to accommodate a deal. Ignore the denials that this is happening, ignore the rhetoric stating the contrary; this is politics.\r\n\r\nMoving forward, I believe that parliament will debate the fact that there was not a clear decision based upon the petition that is still gathering momentum.\r\n\r\nI get it 100%; it was a first past the post result but the outcome was only 52% v 48%, it was not an emphatic victory by any stretch of the means. In addition, many MP’s are now coming under consistency pressure to sanction a second vote.\r\n\r\nI know, I could be on my own here but a few hours is a long time in UK politics at the moment, never mind a few months. In a few months a lot of things can and will happen surrounding the BREXIT result.\r\n\r\nWhen I was young my father would say to me after I’d made a decision… well son “You’ve made your bed, now you’ve got to lie in it”. These were typical values of my father’s generation and one, which I maintain personally today.\r\n\r\nHowever, I am writing here about the EUROZONE and politics. It’s 100% fu**ed up and dysfunctional. It has precedents in place on three occasions in the past were you can “try again” so to speak… RULE NOTHING OUT.\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, this second vote would have a clear timetable for the triggering of article 50 should a BREXIT vote prevail.\r\n\r\nMy money is on spring 2017 when the weathers a wee bit better.\r\n\r\nIn my opinion there is a classic buyers remorse scenario in play in the UK and the longer it’s left the greater the chance of a re-vote.\r\n\r\nAgree with me or disagree with me… discuss it over a pint or a glass wine or even a Jack and diet with family and friends. As I have said the EUROZONE is fu**ed up it needs the UK more than the UK needs it, in my opinion. Meetings will be going on… this is politics not real life.\r\n\r\n<em> </em>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBER EXCLUSIVE AREA:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nTRADING REVIEW:\r\n\r\nI am only just warming up the seat once again in front of my screens and clearing a backlog of administration from the past three weeks. I will be working away for the weekend and well into next week doing this.\r\n\r\nIn some ways it was good to get NFP out of the way prior to sinking my teeth back in the market, in other ways NFP is just a pain in the arse.\r\n\r\nI am going to trade this summer almost full-time. I will communicate via twitter and email with you, however, there will NOT be any blogs until September.\r\n\r\nWhat I decided I would do upon returning home after BREXIT trading, which for me was a damn disaster, was to review all open positions with chart analysis.\r\n\r\nFor BREXIT I had connectivity issues, then I was caught in chatter about brokers suspending trading in some pairs or all pairs after the result was announced and also some brokers only allowing traders to close existing trades and not open new ones. I had a multitude of distractions and at the end of the day I gave up. I am now therefore looking at secondary moves before the return bounce, which will happen, but just not yet.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/NZD:\r\n\r\nI have a few longer-term POSITION TRADES with this pair. When I add them all together size wise they are still extremely small trades and I am prepared for a test of parity should one be forth coming. I am long and prepared to sit it out. I was caught with two trades a long way away from current prices but this is the definition of a long-term trade.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/AUDNZD-WEEKLY-09072016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-8115\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/AUDNZD-WEEKLY-09072016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"AUDNZD WEEKLY 09072016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nFrom the weekly chart above you can clearly see the head and shoulders pattern that I am paying attention to. Whilst it now a little out of kilter it is viable in my opinion and I am waiting for the measured move into the mid 1.20’s.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD:\r\n\r\nI have been 150% frustrated and down right frickin’ annoyed with the NZD currency as a whole regardless of what NZD pair traded or what timeframe.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/NZDUSD-MONTHLY-09072016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-8122\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/NZDUSD-MONTHLY-09072016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"NZDUSD MONTHLY 09072016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAs you can see from the chart above, I am still bearish this pair despite all the frustration due to the longer term bear flag formation with a huge / massive potential measured move below 0.5000 to around 0.4800. Again this is a longer-term move and frankly I am so bearish this pair given the economics of New Zealand, I should just add more POSITION TRADES and be done with it! I am constantly being bullied out of this trade by short-term news when my views are really longer-term into 2017.\r\n\r\nTaking emotion away from these thoughts, price is currently towards the top of the pennant of the flag lying around 0.7550, which concerns me just a tad.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD:\r\n\r\nAussie debt has been downgraded and whilst initially this appears to have had zero effect on the pair, I am putting that down to NFP fever. From the chart below you can see that BREXIT resistance lies at 0.7825. My stops right now are at 0.7750, I will push out higher if required. Fundamentally, the AUD economy is pressured lower. The RBA has fingers crossed that the FED will tighten doing their dirty work for them. Whether they can wait until September is the debating point. I have a sneaky feeling that the RBA may have to move to lower the exchange rate of the AUD/USD. It is now well over 1,000 pips above the desired levels indicated by the RBA previously.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/AUDUSD-MONTHLY-09072016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-8116\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/AUDUSD-MONTHLY-09072016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"AUDUSD MONTHLY 09072016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF:\r\n\r\nThis pair I still have high hopes for, to be one of the trades of 2016. It has taken a step backwards due to BREXIT flight to safety issues despite the overnight 0.75% fees for deposits. I think the mere geographical proximity has its influences. We are now starting to move higher, which I am happy about. The chart below highlights my stop and limit positions.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/USDCHF-WEEKLY-CHART-09072016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-8125\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/USDCHF-WEEKLY-CHART-09072016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"USDCHF WEEKLY CHART 09072016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nEUR/USD:\r\n\r\nAs you can see from the monthly chart below there is bear flag measured move to about 0.8300 still potentially in play. In my opinion, we need to see the move lower now or the pennant length will invalidate the move lower.\r\n\r\nI am bearish the EUR overall, as I think by now you would have got the picture that I believe that the EUROZONE is deep in the sh*t. I think below 1.0800 – 1.0750 the move lower will gather momentum. Patience is required.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/EURUSD-MONTHLY-CHART-09072016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-8124\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/EURUSD-MONTHLY-CHART-09072016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"EURUSD MONTHLY CHART 09072016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP:\r\n\r\nWith regards to cable, I wanted to take a look at all the cable pairs and give you my thoughts and opinions. Except for the GBP/USD all my thoughts will be written on the charts themselves, most as drawings and level identities. They will all follow the GBP/USD chart (GBP/AUD, GBP/CAD, GBP/NZD, GBP/CHF and EUR/GBP)\r\n\r\nGBP/USD:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/GBPUSD-FIB1-MONTHLY-09072016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-8126\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/GBPUSD-FIB1-MONTHLY-09072016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"GBPUSD FIB1 MONTHLY 09072016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/GBPUSD-FIB2-MONTHLY-09072016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-8127\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/GBPUSD-FIB2-MONTHLY-09072016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"GBPUSD FIB2 MONTHLY 09072016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nFrom the charts above it is as plain as the nose on your face that the 127% Fibonacci extension (1.2187)  is like a beacon on some jagged rocks shining out or a star trek tractor beam pulling cable towards 1.2000. It all depends from where you decide to start the fibonacci measurement. The move lower it lands on just below 1.2000. That is where I believe cable has to go. That is another 900 pips. It will not be easy nor will it be straight line but it has to be on the minds of many traders and institutions not just mine.\r\n\r\nWith that in mind the following charts GBP related pairs will hopefully make some sense.\r\n\r\nI have looked at these pairs as potentially how far could they fall given the relationship to the potential move in GBP/USD. I am not saying that I will only buy the reverse move I am in fact looking very seriously at riding the wave lower although there are greater risks involved to some extent as the snap back with be on geopolitical news which, I have no way of predicting the time. However, we have at least until the new Conservative leader / Prime Minister is announced, I would have thought.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/GBPAUD-MONTHLY-09.07.2016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-8118\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/GBPAUD-MONTHLY-09.07.2016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"GBPAUD MONTHLY 09.07.2016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/GBPCAD-MONTHLY-09.07.2016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-8119\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/GBPCAD-MONTHLY-09.07.2016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"GBPCAD MONTHLY 09.07.2016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/GBPCHF-MONTHLY-09.07.2016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-8120\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/GBPCHF-MONTHLY-09.07.2016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"GBPCHF MONTHLY 09.07.2016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/GBPNZD-MONTHLY-09072016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-8121\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/GBPNZD-MONTHLY-09072016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"GBPNZD MONTHLY 09072016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/EURGBP-MONTHLY-09072016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-8117\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/EURGBP-MONTHLY-09072016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"EURGBP MONTHLY 09072016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>TRADES REVIEW:</strong>\r\n\r\nThe excel spreadsheets below details current LIVE and pending LIMIT ORDER trades: -\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/LIVE-TRADES-09072016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-8107\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/LIVE-TRADES-09072016.png\" alt=\"LIVE TRADES 09072016\" width=\"802\" height=\"589\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong>\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/LIMIT-ORDERS-09072016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-8106\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/LIMIT-ORDERS-09072016.png\" alt=\"LIMIT ORDERS 09072016\" width=\"663\" height=\"452\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> COMING UP THIS WEEK:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>THIS WEEK’S FOREX NEWS THAT INTERESTS ME:</u>\r\n\r\n(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market other than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to <a href=\"http://www.forexfactory.com\">www.forexfactory.com</a> and <a href=\"http://www.tradingeconomics.com\">www.tradingeconomics.com</a> for a more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).\r\n\r\nSUNDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: CAD – BOC Rate Statement and Monetary Policy Report.\r\nWEDNESDAY: CAD – BOC Press Conference.\r\nWEDNESDAY: AUD – Employment Data.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: GBP – BOE Interest Rate and MPC voting.\r\nTHURSDAY: CNY – GDP.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: USD – CPi and Core CPI &amp; Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>THE USD MAJORS – MY THOUGHTS (A REVIEW): </u>\r\n\r\n(In this section I have as usual kept my charts as minimalist as possible. With regards to charting in my opinion less is more!! I hope that they are clear. All readers regardless of level of experience should be able to follow my thoughts from my comments to the levels on the charts with ease)\r\n\r\nMy comments are contained on the charts.\r\n\r\nEUR/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.1048\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/EURUSD-D-09072016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-8109\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/EURUSD-D-09072016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"EURUSD D 09072016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nGBP/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.2950\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/GBPUSD-D-09072016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-8110\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/GBPUSD-D-09072016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"GBPUSD D 09072016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nAUD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.7564\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/AUDUSD-D-09072016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-8108\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/AUDUSD-D-09072016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"AUDUSD D 09072016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nNZD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.7302\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/NZDUSD-D-09072016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-8111\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/NZDUSD-D-09072016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"NZDUSD D 09072016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.3035\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/USDCAD-D-09072016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-8112\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/USDCAD-D-09072016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"USDCAD D 09072016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF - Weekly Closing Price: 0.9825\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/USDCHF-D-09072016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-8113\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/USDCHF-D-09072016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"USDCHF D 09072016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY - Weekly Closing Price: 100.56\r\n\r\n<u><a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/USDJPY-D-09072016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-8114\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/USDJPY-D-09072016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"USDJPY D 09072016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a></u>\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u>MY CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nWe are in uncertain times and the FX markets are definitely twitchy. The commodity currencies, in particular the antipodean currencies are bucking the trend regardless of fundamentals, they appear to be more of a reaction to carry trade status more than anything else. Whilst this concerns me, as I am short I may have to stick with these trades and add more short positions at higher levels to get greater value for my longer-term positions. That last time I chopped these pairs they nose-dived inside 48 hours, that was annoying and frustrating to say the least. That is NOT going to happen again, but whatever I do I need to do inside my overall RISK MANAGEMENT principles.\r\n\r\nThe BOC and BOE have announcements this week.\r\n\r\nDo I think that there will be any surprises I can hear you say!!\r\n\r\nWell the short answer is “Possibly”.\r\n\r\nCanada has had reasonable data of late but the Fort McMurray fires will come down like a ton of bricks soon on the local Alberta economy and then at Federal level they will have to act with the support of the BOC. On the ground in Quebec things are not rosy, but in all honesty Quebec is always like this, its only concern is language. The whole province could have a plague but as long as you are pronounced mort and not dead all will be fine here. The fact the economy is up shit creek without a paddle is of little consequence to the intransigent views held in this province.\r\n\r\nElsewhere the housing bubble in Vancouver and Toronto must concern Stephen Poloz, but the guy is so laid back it would not surprise me to see him lying on his back horizontal on a psychiatrists chair presenting this week.\r\n\r\nI am still in the camp of a rate cut before the end of the year… maybe now?\r\n\r\nCarney ex. BOC, wow didn\'t Canada do a great job off-loading him to replace Merv “the swerve” at the BOE?\r\n\r\nCarney is going to cut and Carney is going to do his impression of “Helicopter Ben” probably “JCB Carney” distributing wads of cash from the bucket of his JCB all over the city of London. Things may be announced as early as next week. He really needs to ensure that he is ahead of the curve in my opinion.\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nTake care,\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nDATE: 9<sup>th</sup> July 2016\r\nBLOG VERSION: #107 PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBER VERSION\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','GET READY IN SPRING 2017 THERE WILL BE ANOTHER BREXIT VOTE','','publish','open','closed','','get-ready-spring-2017-will-another-brexit-vote','','','2016-07-09 06:45:12','2016-07-09 11:45:12','',0,'http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?post_type=member_posts&#038;p=8123',0,'member_posts','',0),(7947,1,'2016-05-21 11:20:34','2016-05-21 16:20:34','<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong> INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nLast week was as they say…”One helluva week”.\r\n\r\nI made the decision ahead of the FOMC minutes release to basically have a clear out of many open trades, reduce position sizes, play with stops and take pips and profits off the table. I was lucky the day coincided with another BREXIT poll. This one was mainly based around London and published in the Evening Standard newspaper the night before (for me). It was a big “remain” vote ahead of BREXIT and the cable rallied.\r\n\r\nThe cable rally helped GBP/NZD longs, EUR/GBP shorts and generally gave the FX markets a window when a sigh of relief appeared to be taken. I capitalized on these moves and took just over 1,000 pips out of the market in a couple of hours.\r\n\r\nIn fact, looking back over the past month or so, ever since I decided that TWITTER was full of bullsh*t and ego driven alleged traders with no skin in the game, which in turn, resulted in me pulling back from TWITTER on my main feed @pipaccumulator, my trading performance has improved….go figure that one?\r\n\r\nWhilst it means my exposure to new subscribers is considerably less, my trading fortunes have improved. Obviously, my brain is now in turmoil; how do I strike that balance of tweeting, adding fresh subscribers to the PREMIUM SERVICE and maintaining the run of great momentum and probability trades. That is a bottle of wine, or maybe the Jack and Diet debate that needs to be done over this weekend.\r\n\r\nNevertheless, this month so far the PREMIUM SERVICE has added 1,766 pips and year to date the total is 5,580 pips. Whilst we are not yet at the end of the month, the profit/loss ratio is great and income per trade is up. As my buddy Roger says “Happy Days!!”\r\n\r\nShifting gears…\r\n\r\nFREE PREMIUM SERVICE subscriptions, just to remind you; you could be the next winner of a free PREMIUM SERVICE subscription; if you subscribe to receive this free blog via my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nYou are automatically entered into a free monthly draw, once you’ve subscribed. Each month during 2016 one lucky blog subscriber will receive a free subscription to the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\nAs I am the UK and IRELAND in June and early July the next winner will enjoy a subscription until my summer break in mid July. The next draw after the one in a couple of weeks will then be early September after my summer break from blogging.\r\n\r\nMy plans for the short tour of the UK and IRELAND (see chart below with itinerary) are intensifying a lot more now. My power point software skills are being pushed to the limits, never mind the continual refining of the presentation content.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/TOUR-DATES-2016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7522\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/TOUR-DATES-2016.png\" alt=\"TOUR DATES 2016\" width=\"624\" height=\"397\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nI hope to meet and greet many traders on this trip and I am really excited about the presentations that are scheduled. Please come along if you can and bring friends who you think may be interested in starting to trade the Forex market.\r\n\r\nSpaces are limited so to register for an event, please go to my landing page on <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> and click on LIVE EVENTS. The drop down menu there has all the information that you will require, plus the email address to use to register at to reserve a space. I would place it here but I would end up getting thousand’s of SPAM emails, which I want to avoid.\r\n\r\nPlease note that because of the TOUR, copies of this blog will have a revised format on the following dates: -\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">18<sup>th</sup> June 2016\r\n25<sup>th</sup> June 2016\r\n2<sup>nd</sup> July 2016</p>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber, fee based trade set-up option for Forex traders regardless of experience or background. I provide traders suggested trades, and some market commentary related to open trades or factors within the overall market that have my interest.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and the various trade styles plus how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nAdditional information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE you will require a credit card.\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u>PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION COSTS:</u>\r\n\r\nDetails of features and benefits of a PREMIUM SERVICE subscription can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the dropdown tab at the top of the page entitled HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE OF THE PREMIUM SERVICE. To subscribe follow the SUBSCRIBE HERE tab.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">PREMIUM SERVICE subscription costs are as follows: -</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">CAD$240.00 - 4 weeks (1 month)\r\nCAD$500.00 - 10 weeks (3 months)\r\nCAD$750.00 - 20 weeks (6 months)\r\nCAD$1,250.00 - 40 weeks (12 months)\r\n<u>PLUS</u>: Existing PLATINUM MEMBERS (annual subscribers) can re-subscribe for a further 12 months for CAD$1,000.00</p>\r\nI work for 40 weeks or so a year, the annual subscription is based on 40 published blogs of the WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU. For the remaining 12 weeks of the year, I am usually around tweeting and managing existing LIVE trades.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><u>PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE THIS MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:</u></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">NET PIPS THIS MONTH SO FAR:            +1,766\r\nNET PIPS THIS YEAR SO FAR:                +5,580</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">NET PIPS 2015:       +10,686\r\nNET PIPS 2014:       +11,209\r\n(I trade basically for 10 months a year. I do not trade from mid July through early September or mid December through early January).</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">If you want more data or detail about the performance and the tabs on my website landing page do not answer your questions, contact me directly and I will supply the trading data you require. There are NO secrets. There are many, many spreadsheets detailing performance trade by trade and by trade and by trading style, way too many to place in this blog. If you are interested in the PREMIUM SERVICE and want more information, all you have to do is ask.</p>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>LAST WEEK’S NEWS – MY THOUGHTS:</strong>\r\n\r\nWhilst there were a few high note events and pieces of news last week, as far as I am concerned the FOMC minutes took first place and all else dropped down to the lower peg.\r\n\r\nEverything last week was really focused on would the FED mention hikes in the minutes? Without doubt, ahead of the data release, there was a coordinated\r\n\r\neffort by the FED to start talking up the possibility of a hike in June or July. Significantly, there were no comments from Janet Yellen or her boy Stanley Fischer and whilst we are really none the wiser, the market is what it is, and is starting to show a reaction to a rate hike possibility. (I am looking at this later in the blog, so I will keep my powder dry until later).\r\n\r\nThe minutes were a little HAWKISH and the USD gained strength across the board, at the moment we are consolidating that move and the prior moves of USD buying.\r\n\r\nThere are huge event risks, which I talked about a couple of weeks ago, still hanging over the markets and I believe that there is a realization that the FED needs to put something away for a rainy day given all the risks ahead and therefore the desire to hike is stronger. Yellen is a DOVE, she is not a risk taker and she is surrounded by a group of individuals, who are at times loose canons but they all fall in line when she has them in a room and they have to vote. When they are not in that room to vote they say what they want and it can be very misleading, especially as the non-voting members of the Fed can cloud the issue.\r\n\r\nSo, I am not getting carried away in any direction at the moment, other than I do think that the FED has to act sooner rather than later and the dithering of the past will just kill them moving forward if they continue with a wait and see policy. The Fed is in great danger of being behind the curve and the continued dithering causes uncertainly. Allegedly, uncertainty is one thing that the FED does not want to create. So far in my opinion, they are guilty if this.\r\n\r\nRight now, it looks like the USD is consolidating for a move higher back towards 100.00 and beyond. Lets see what happens.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>WHAT’S BIG ON MY MIND:</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>THE NIGHTMARE SCENARIO</strong></p>\r\nI trade, I blog and do my very best to provide my subscribers with trade set-ups to make them and myself a nice little income. I am now using the phrase “STEADY EDDIE” a lot as I believe it’s all about consistency and letting the trades come to you. There is little point trading for trade’s sake. It’s not my style and I believe that one should stick to one’s strengths rather than have weaknesses exposed.\r\n\r\nOver the past week or so as I analyze the geopolitical events and major monetary policy decisions that are on the horizon, I am constantly getting myself geared up for what I am calling the NIGHTMARE SCENARIO.\r\n\r\nI am of the opinion that we are heading feet first into a full-blown recession, eyes open and there seems to be an atmosphere around of complacency that all economic matters in the world, whilst not perfect are moving along slowly but in the right direction.\r\n\r\nAs stated I think a little differently. I believe we are on the brink of recession in Canada, the USA, the UK and the rest of Europe and probably Japan as well. I know people will quote government economic data, I believe a lot of this data is massaged to the extent that at times it seems to be detached from reality on the ground in Main Street.\r\n\r\nEverything for me is based around simplicity, why over-complicate matters. Over complication creates misleading interpretation, which, in my opinion, leads to further complication and I strongly believe that this was at the core of the securitization issues that led to the 2007-8 financial crash.\r\n\r\nWe are at the precipice at the moment with so many economies around the world. One jitter, one bad move and like a house of cards it all falls down.\r\n\r\nLet me elaborate…\r\n\r\nRightly or wrongly, it’s my blog and I can what I want.\r\n\r\nKeeping it really simple, I believe that housing is about 75-85% of the catalyst for everything in an economy. It is the circle from which it all happens, employment, wages the lot.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>If the housing market is moving, people are always doing home improvements or buying goods, equipment and services.</li>\r\n 	<li>Contractors are always busy and small business grows.</li>\r\n 	<li>People are hired and wages improve.</li>\r\n 	<li>The tax intake for an economy improves through both direct and indirect taxes.</li>\r\n 	<li>Local economies expand as local councils/towns invest in infrastructure and services.</li>\r\n 	<li>Central government invests in infrastructure and grand projects.</li>\r\n 	<li>Bank lending expands and businesses grow and have expansion plans.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nWe are not really getting this. As soon as you see green shoots of growth we are brought back to earth with a bang, as bad news always seems to follow good news these days… why is this?\r\n\r\nYes, I believe that the FED dithered in 2015 and missed the moment. Janet Yellen had to raise rates in December 2015 to save face.\r\n\r\nYes, I believe that the German approach of Austerity has set back the EUROZONE economically for decades. The handling of the GREECE debt is a disgrace. The constant refusal to offer debt relief to a country that has more chance, of launching a space program, and being the first to have a man on Mars, than repay its loans before ARMAGEDDON hits, beggars belief.\r\n\r\nYes, I believe that market correlations are so inter-twinned now that we are very quickly approaching the “one world – one market” scenario. Many might argue to a large extent we are already there.\r\n\r\nYes, I also believe that to a very large extent central banks are now largely emasculated. I was and still am, undecided 100%... (do you feel my indecision?) on the side that Central Bank monetary policy is the biggest factor in price movement in the currency markets. Yet, I believe that we have come to the end of the road regarding fiscal initiatives and structural reforms are now required. The markets are now immune to a large extent with the CURRENCY WARS. Previous moves after central bank policy initiatives by the BOJ and ECB highlight this point perfectly.\r\n\r\nFor nearly my entire trading career, all I have heard month after month are central bank governors or presidents stating that they are not achieving their growth GDP objectives. They reset the poorly set out goals to lower levels and then stretch out the timeline to meet these goals which are still NEVER achieved. This happens every few months from every central bank.\r\n\r\nCentral banks want inflation. They are just not getting it. In fact we have had more DEFLATION than INFLATION in the last 10 years. All central banks do is set targets to please I do not know who, they fail to meet these and they do a reset and push out… We need structural reforms within governments.\r\n\r\nPoliticians will not commit. They are scared sh**less at the thought. Politicians are only interested in popularity; they have a four-year time line that’s all.\r\n\r\nBack to my nightmare….\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>DONALD TRUMP – THE U.S. PRESIDENTIAL CIRCUS</li>\r\n 	<li>HOUSING BUBBLES</li>\r\n 	<li>BREXIT and UK FRAGILITY</li>\r\n 	<li>EUROZONE IMPLOSION / CONTAGION EFFECT</li>\r\n 	<li>JAPAN FAILURE</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nIf the opening paragraphs weren’t enough to keep me 24 x 5 at my screens, trading those 5 sub titles above will do just that.\r\n\r\nDONALD TRUMP – THE U.S. PRESIDENTIAL CIRCUS:\r\n\r\nHe’s probably a very nice and interesting guy. He is a salesman, he is used to getting his own way and I totally get why American voters who have been kept in check, ruled by fear for so long see THE DONALD as a breath of fresh air. They are buying a promise that TRUMP will sort out the paralysis party divide driven Washington club that is only interested in themselves and their party with two fingers raised to the electorate that elected them….. I get it.\r\n\r\nThe elitism of Washington and failed leaders from the past who were never able to get a political union to pass key policies has caught up with the nations capital. It has been seen as dysfunctional and heartless in the past, a change is coming sooner or later. Whether you like THE DONALD or not, he has changed the face of U.S. politics, it is a reality show on TV and the media who are just as big dinosaurs as Washington, were caught off guard and simply did not know how to react. The media in the U.S. is bought off just like Oil and Pharmaceuticals. The media had to shift gear as they were seen to be biased which we all know they are, but they have to attempt to hide that bias.\r\n\r\nTHE DONALD shake up, should he be elected in November will in my opinion cause a stock market sell off. There will be so much uncertainty. Even now as the presumptive nominee, he keeps away from policy in preference to personal attacks, and politicians not being the brightest cannot see through this and attack back. In this game THE DONALD has better than a 50-50 chance of a win.\r\n\r\nTHE DONALD &amp; THE U.S. PRESIDENTIAL CIRCUS = uncertainty.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nHOUSING BUBBLES:\r\n\r\nWhilst we are bouncing off the bottom economically all over the world certain pockets, mainly capital and major cities such as LONDON, SYDNEY, AUCKLAND, TORONTO, VANCOUVER, SAN FRANCISCO, NEW YORK etc. have housing bubbles and prices are skyrocketing. Central banks and governments want to manage this and not fuel the bubbles, but the balancing act they are required to perform in relation to less well-off parts of their country is a difficult one.\r\n\r\nWe are one geopolitical event away from a HOUSING CRASH as a bubble bursts; will this be another “House of Cards”?\r\n\r\nRemember in the currency wars, lower interest rates are seen as key. Lower interest rates will only fuel local housing bubbles.\r\n\r\nHOUSING BUBBLES = uncertainty.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nBREXIT:\r\n\r\nThere is a belief that at the end of the day a “Better the devil you know than the devil you don’t” approach to voting IN or OUT will apply in the UK. I am now reading articles telling me that educated people want to REMAIN and the less well educated want a BREXIT.\r\n\r\nIn 2016, isn’t it just great the way we pigeon hole and pre-judge facts. Frankly, whilst it is relatively straightforward to put an X in a box to stay or go, it’s not that simple.\r\n\r\nAs the TV debates happen the facts will come out and more of a balanced discussion can take place. The media in the UK is the same as the U.S., largely it is biased and very opinionated and whilst voting habits will be directed by what channel and what newspaper you read, nearly all decisions in the UK fall in the hands of the 10-15% floating voter. Are these people well educated or not well educated, I doubt all the research in the world could answer this.\r\n\r\nIn addition, the polls got the Scottish referendum and the UK election that followed arseways, so I for one would not be beholden to a UK poll result.\r\n\r\nI am not 100% convinced on all the facts that I am told to believe about the merits of a REMAIN or BREXIT vote. More debate is definitely required, and more qualification of the alleged facts. This is NOT a done deal as we are led to believe, it is complicated.\r\n\r\nLet me give you one fact that I am hearing that I have yet to read about; tradesmen in the UK are really pissed off with the freedom of employment policy within the EUROPEAN UNION. From distressed markets in mainland Europe, tradesman come to the UK, to set up, it’s all above board. However, as a result of even greater competition in an already distressed UK market they squeeze margins that are already tight. The trade unions are NOT happy; never mind your local plumber, electrician, builder etc. These people account for a huge number of voters especially when you add in families etc. I am told that the building / home improvement industry is virtually BREXIT committed.\r\n\r\nRemember Mark Carney BOE governor, with his failed forward guidance policy for the markets. His forward guidance was totally 100% market misleading. The classic being, when unemployment fell to 7% that was Carney’s original trigger to raise rates. Unemployment is now at 5% and the BOE is talking more about DOVISH policies rather than HAWKISH.\r\n\r\nDavid Cameron (Prime Minister) talks about how good the UK economy is yet here we are still on the bottom, no movement, what is wrong?\r\n\r\nAre all the statistics that we are given to measure performance by, so manipulated through years of massaging that they do not adequately reflect a true position anymore?\r\n\r\nAm I such a cynic to believe that as governments receive the true data, they hide away from the public eye and spend their days popping Prozac and hiding under their desks? Politicians lie and they mislead to maintain popularity and votes…there are “LYIN’ TEDS” everywhere around the globe!!\r\n\r\nBREXIT and UK FRAGILITY = uncertainty.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nEUROZONE IMPLOSION / CONTAGION EFFECT:\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, the EUROZONE is still very fragile and one step from dropping off the cliff. The refugee crisis, GREECE, unemployment, DEFLATION and a UK BREXIT… take your pick.\r\n\r\nMario Draghi (ECB, President) has gone as far as he can, the markets have basically told him to feck off. He has NO bullets, NO bazookas left.\r\n\r\n27 countries in the EUROZONE need to implement major structural reforms to improve and bring back growth to the stagnating economies. As I wrote before, there is more chance of GREECE winning the space race to Mars.\r\n\r\nWhat happens should a BREXIT vote prevail in the UK? I am of the opinion that many of the EUROZONE populist parties are ready, waiting and watching ready to capitalize, such as: -\r\n\r\nGERMANY:                 Alternative for Germany\r\nFRANCE:                     National Front\r\nITALY:                          Five Stars\r\nSPAIN:                         Podermos\r\nNETHERLANDS:      Party for Freedom\r\nAUSTRIA:                   Austrian Freedom Party\r\nFINLAND:                  Finns Party\r\n\r\nOn Friday last week I noticed a great quote from Jeroen Dijsselbloem, leader of the EUROZONE Finance Ministers, it said “FX intervention to improve competitive unwise”. Holy Mother of God what rock has he been hiding under.\r\n\r\nEUROZONE IMPLOSION / CONTAGION EFFECT = uncertainty.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nJAPAN FAILS:\r\n\r\nFrom the country that has the largest QE and QQE program ever, we still have problems. Reputations are on the line, Abe (Prime Minister) and Kuroda (BOJ); are for want of a better phrase looking down the barrel of a shotgun.\r\n\r\nWe are now a couple of years or so into Abe’s policy initiatives to bring Japan out of recession, stimulate growth and provide a stabilizing effect with the YEN for businesses moving forward. Initially it worked, the YEN was weakened and businesses could export cheaper as the weaker YEN created greater competitiveness. Of late this has faltered and like most economies Japan is fragile.\r\n\r\nThe debate is on regarding whether the YEN is a flight to safety currency moving forward, that aside there is NOT an infinitum amount of time for Abe. The last time Kuroda came to the markets he disappointed big time. It has taken a lot of jawboning to strengthen the YEN.\r\n\r\nJAPAN FAILURE = uncertainty.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>DONALD TRUMP – THE U.S. PRESIDENTIAL CIRCUS</li>\r\n 	<li>HOUSING BUBBLES</li>\r\n 	<li>BREXIT and UK FRAGILITY</li>\r\n 	<li>EUROZONE IMPLOSION / CONTAGION EFFECT</li>\r\n 	<li>JAPAN FAILURE</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nWe have an inter-connected world and the domino effect is real and threatening when you have as I see it so many precipice issues.\r\n\r\nIt’s all about confidence.\r\n\r\nAt the end of the day FEAR and GREED will rule as they always do.\r\n\r\nMost central banks have nothing to add should we hit a recession, which is my fear; my nightmare scenario. The kitchen sink and all fittings plus the all bathroom items and fittings have been thrown at markets to solidify and stimulate. Only the extreme unconventional measures are left, such as negative interest rates and literally the buying of stocks, as many central banks have no more bonds or fixed assets left to purchase.\r\n\r\nFrom a trading perspective there would be massive volatility, with huge worldwide implications… will my nightmare become a reality or partial reality?\r\n\r\nWill one domino fall taking the rest with it?\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBER EXCLUSIVE AREA:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> COMING UP THIS WEEK:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>THIS WEEK’S FOREX NEWS THAT INTERESTS ME:</u>\r\n\r\n(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market other than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to <a href=\"http://www.forexfactory.com\">www.forexfactory.com</a> and <a href=\"http://www.tradingeconomics.com\">www.tradingeconomics.com</a> for a more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nSUNDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: CAD – BOC Rate Statement.\r\nWEDNESDAY: NZD – Annual Budget Release.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>THE USD MAJORS – MY THOUGHTS (A REVIEW): </u>\r\n\r\n(In this section I have as usual kept my charts as minimalist as possible. With regards to charting in my opinion less is more!! I hope that they are clear. All readers regardless of level of experience should be able to follow my thoughts from my comments to the levels on the charts with ease)\r\n\r\nMy comments are contained on the charts.\r\n\r\nEUR/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.1221\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/EURUSD-D-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7926\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/EURUSD-D-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"EURUSD D 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nGBP/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.4497\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/GBPUSD-D-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7927\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/GBPUSD-D-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"GBPUSD D 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nAUD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.7222\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/AUDUSD-D-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7925\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/AUDUSD-D-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"AUDUSD D 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nNZD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.6762\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/NZDUSD-D-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7928\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/NZDUSD-D-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"NZDUSD D 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.3113\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDCAD-D-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7929\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDCAD-D-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"USDCAD D 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF - Weekly Closing Price: 0.9900\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDCHF-DAILY-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7937\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDCHF-DAILY-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"USDCHF DAILY 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY - Weekly Closing Price: 110.11\r\n\r\n<u><a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDJPY-D-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7931\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDJPY-D-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"USDJPY D 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a></u>\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u>MY CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nThe FOMC drove the markets last week and the USD strengthened further on the back of a HAWKISH April meeting minutes. After, the data release we have seen to a large extent consolidation moves, which are completely normal. It is now this coming week when I will be entering back into the market once again, albeit slow and steady given all the warnings that I see that I have written about in this week’s blog.\r\n\r\nWe are light on news that interests me this week.\r\n\r\nBe prepared the BOC could cut. The wild fires around Fort McMurray will be a huge burden on the Canadian economy and I think that for once Stephen Poloz (BOC, Governor) may want to be ahead of the curve. It may not happen but be ready just in case.\r\n\r\nI think that the oil price has peaked, so should the BOC cut and the oil price falls the USD/CAD could be back at 1.3600 very quickly.\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nTake care,\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nDATE: 21<sup>st</sup> May 2016\r\nBLOG VERSION: #202 FREE NEWSLETTER VERSION\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','THE NIGHTMARE SCENARIO','','publish','open','closed','','the-nightmare-scenario','','','2016-05-21 13:29:40','2016-05-21 18:29:40','',0,'http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?p=7947',0,'post','',0),(7948,1,'2016-05-21 11:20:34','2016-05-21 16:20:34','<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong> INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nLast week was as they say…”One helluva week”.\r\n\r\nI made the decision ahead of the FOMC minutes release to basically have a clear out of many open trades, reduce position sizes, play with stops and take pips and profits off the table. I was lucky the day coincided with another BREXIT poll. This one was mainly based around London and published in the Evening Standard newspaper the night before (for me). It was a big “remain” vote ahead of BREXIT and the cable rallied.\r\n\r\nThe cable rally helped GBP/NZD longs, EUR/GBP shorts and generally gave the FX markets a window when a sigh of relief appeared to be taken. I capitalized on these moves and took just over 1,000 pips out of the market in a couple of hours.\r\n\r\nIn fact, looking back over the past month or so, ever since I decided that TWITTER was full of bullsh*t and ego driven alleged traders with no skin in the game, which in turn, resulted in me pulling back from TWITTER on my main feed @pipaccumulator, my trading performance has improved….go figure that one?\r\n\r\nWhilst it means my exposure to new subscribers is considerably less, my trading fortunes have improved. Obviously, my brain is now in turmoil; how do I strike that balance of tweeting, adding fresh subscribers to the PREMIUM SERVICE and maintaining the run of great momentum and probability trades. That is a bottle of wine, or maybe the Jack and Diet debate that needs to be done over this weekend.\r\n\r\nNevertheless, this month so far the PREMIUM SERVICE has added 1,766 pips and year to date the total is 5,580 pips. Whilst we are not yet at the end of the month, the profit/loss ratio is great and income per trade is up. As my buddy Roger says “Happy Days!!”\r\n\r\nShifting gears…\r\n\r\nFREE PREMIUM SERVICE subscriptions, just to remind you; you could be the next winner of a free PREMIUM SERVICE subscription; if you subscribe to receive this free blog via my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nYou are automatically entered into a free monthly draw, once you’ve subscribed. Each month during 2016 one lucky blog subscriber will receive a free subscription to the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\nAs I am the UK and IRELAND in June and early July the next winner will enjoy a subscription until my summer break in mid July. The next draw after the one in a couple of weeks will then be early September after my summer break from blogging.\r\n\r\nMy plans for the short tour of the UK and IRELAND (see chart below with itinerary) are intensifying a lot more now. My power point software skills are being pushed to the limits, never mind the continual refining of the presentation content.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/TOUR-DATES-2016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7522\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/TOUR-DATES-2016.png\" alt=\"TOUR DATES 2016\" width=\"624\" height=\"397\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nI hope to meet and greet many traders on this trip and I am really excited about the presentations that are scheduled. Please come along if you can and bring friends who you think may be interested in starting to trade the Forex market.\r\n\r\nSpaces are limited so to register for an event, please go to my landing page on <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> and click on LIVE EVENTS. The drop down menu there has all the information that you will require, plus the email address to use to register at to reserve a space. I would place it here but I would end up getting thousand’s of SPAM emails, which I want to avoid.\r\n\r\nPlease note that because of the TOUR, copies of this blog will have a revised format on the following dates: -\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">18<sup>th</sup> June 2016\r\n25<sup>th</sup> June 2016\r\n2<sup>nd</sup> July 2016</p>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber, fee based trade set-up option for Forex traders regardless of experience or background. I provide traders suggested trades, and some market commentary related to open trades or factors within the overall market that have my interest.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and the various trade styles plus how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nAdditional information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE you will require a credit card.\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u>PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION COSTS:</u>\r\n\r\nDetails of features and benefits of a PREMIUM SERVICE subscription can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the dropdown tab at the top of the page entitled HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE OF THE PREMIUM SERVICE. To subscribe follow the SUBSCRIBE HERE tab.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">PREMIUM SERVICE subscription costs are as follows: -</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">CAD$240.00 - 4 weeks (1 month)\r\nCAD$500.00 - 10 weeks (3 months)\r\nCAD$750.00 - 20 weeks (6 months)\r\nCAD$1,250.00 - 40 weeks (12 months)\r\n<u>PLUS</u>: Existing PLATINUM MEMBERS (annual subscribers) can re-subscribe for a further 12 months for CAD$1,000.00\r\n\r\nI work for 40 weeks or so a year, the annual subscription is based on 40 published blogs of the WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU. For the remaining 12 weeks of the year, I am usually around tweeting and managing existing LIVE trades.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><u>PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE THIS MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:</u></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">NET PIPS THIS MONTH SO FAR:            +1,766\r\nNET PIPS THIS YEAR SO FAR:                +5,580</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">NET PIPS 2015:       +10,686\r\nNET PIPS 2014:       +11,209\r\n(I trade basically for 10 months a year. I do not trade from mid July through early September or mid December through early January).</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">If you want more data or detail about the performance and the tabs on my website landing page do not answer your questions, contact me directly and I will supply the trading data you require. There are NO secrets. There are many, many spreadsheets detailing performance trade by trade and by trade and by trading style, way too many to place in this blog. If you are interested in the PREMIUM SERVICE and want more information, all you have to do is ask.</p>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>LAST WEEK’S NEWS – MY THOUGHTS:</strong>\r\n\r\nWhilst there were a few high note events and pieces of news last week, as far as I am concerned the FOMC minutes took first place and all else dropped down to the lower peg.\r\n\r\nEverything last week was really focused on would the FED mention hikes in the minutes? Without doubt, ahead of the data release, there was a coordinated\r\n\r\neffort by the FED to start talking up the possibility of a hike in June or July. Significantly, there were no comments from Janet Yellen or her boy Stanley Fischer and whilst we are really none the wiser, the market is what it is, and is starting to show a reaction to a rate hike possibility. (I am looking at this later in the blog, so I will keep my powder dry until later).\r\n\r\nThe minutes were a little HAWKISH and the USD gained strength across the board, at the moment we are consolidating that move and the prior moves of USD buying.\r\n\r\nThere are huge event risks, which I talked about a couple of weeks ago, still hanging over the markets and I believe that there is a realization that the FED needs to put something away for a rainy day given all the risks ahead and therefore the desire to hike is stronger. Yellen is a DOVE, she is not a risk taker and she is surrounded by a group of individuals, who are at times loose canons but they all fall in line when she has them in a room and they have to vote. When they are not in that room to vote they say what they want and it can be very misleading, especially as the non-voting members of the Fed can cloud the issue.\r\n\r\nSo, I am not getting carried away in any direction at the moment, other than I do think that the FED has to act sooner rather than later and the dithering of the past will just kill them moving forward if they continue with a wait and see policy. The Fed is in great danger of being behind the curve and the continued dithering causes uncertainly. Allegedly, uncertainty is one thing that the FED does not want to create. So far in my opinion, they are guilty if this.\r\n\r\nRight now, it looks like the USD is consolidating for a move higher back towards 100.00 and beyond. Lets see what happens.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>WHAT’S BIG ON MY MIND:</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>THE NIGHTMARE SCENARIO</strong></p>\r\nI trade, I blog and do my very best to provide my subscribers with trade set-ups to make them and myself a nice little income. I am now using the phrase “STEADY EDDIE” a lot as I believe it’s all about consistency and letting the trades come to you. There is little point trading for trade’s sake. It’s not my style and I believe that one should stick to one’s strengths rather than have weaknesses exposed.\r\n\r\nOver the past week or so as I analyze the geopolitical events and major monetary policy decisions that are on the horizon, I am constantly getting myself geared up for what I am calling the NIGHTMARE SCENARIO.\r\n\r\nI am of the opinion that we are heading feet first into a full-blown recession, eyes open and there seems to be an atmosphere around of complacency that all economic matters in the world, whilst not perfect are moving along slowly but in the right direction.\r\n\r\nAs stated I think a little differently. I believe we are on the brink of recession in Canada, the USA, the UK and the rest of Europe and probably Japan as well. I know people will quote government economic data, I believe a lot of this data is massaged to the extent that at times it seems to be detached from reality on the ground in Main Street.\r\n\r\nEverything for me is based around simplicity, why over-complicate matters. Over complication creates misleading interpretation, which, in my opinion, leads to further complication and I strongly believe that this was at the core of the securitization issues that led to the 2007-8 financial crash.\r\n\r\nWe are at the precipice at the moment with so many economies around the world. One jitter, one bad move and like a house of cards it all falls down.\r\n\r\nLet me elaborate…\r\n\r\nRightly or wrongly, it’s my blog and I can what I want.\r\n\r\nKeeping it really simple, I believe that housing is about 75-85% of the catalyst for everything in an economy. It is the circle from which it all happens, employment, wages the lot.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>If the housing market is moving, people are always doing home improvements or buying goods, equipment and services.</li>\r\n 	<li>Contractors are always busy and small business grows.</li>\r\n 	<li>People are hired and wages improve.</li>\r\n 	<li>The tax intake for an economy improves through both direct and indirect taxes.</li>\r\n 	<li>Local economies expand as local councils/towns invest in infrastructure and services.</li>\r\n 	<li>Central government invests in infrastructure and grand projects.</li>\r\n 	<li>Bank lending expands and businesses grow and have expansion plans.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nWe are not really getting this. As soon as you see green shoots of growth we are brought back to earth with a bang, as bad news always seems to follow good news these days… why is this?\r\n\r\nYes, I believe that the FED dithered in 2015 and missed the moment. Janet Yellen had to raise rates in December 2015 to save face.\r\n\r\nYes, I believe that the German approach of Austerity has set back the EUROZONE economically for decades. The handling of the GREECE debt is a disgrace. The constant refusal to offer debt relief to a country that has more chance, of launching a space program, and being the first to have a man on Mars, than repay its loans before ARMAGEDDON hits, beggars belief.\r\n\r\nYes, I believe that market correlations are so inter-twinned now that we are very quickly approaching the “one world – one market” scenario. Many might argue to a large extent we are already there.\r\n\r\nYes, I also believe that to a very large extent central banks are now largely emasculated. I was and still am, undecided 100%... (do you feel my indecision?) on the side that Central Bank monetary policy is the biggest factor in price movement in the currency markets. Yet, I believe that we have come to the end of the road regarding fiscal initiatives and structural reforms are now required. The markets are now immune to a large extent with the CURRENCY WARS. Previous moves after central bank policy initiatives by the BOJ and ECB highlight this point perfectly.\r\n\r\nFor nearly my entire trading career, all I have heard month after month are central bank governors or presidents stating that they are not achieving their growth GDP objectives. They reset the poorly set out goals to lower levels and then stretch out the timeline to meet these goals which are still NEVER achieved. This happens every few months from every central bank.\r\n\r\nCentral banks want inflation. They are just not getting it. In fact we have had more DEFLATION than INFLATION in the last 10 years. All central banks do is set targets to please I do not know who, they fail to meet these and they do a reset and push out… We need structural reforms within governments.\r\n\r\nPoliticians will not commit. They are scared sh**less at the thought. Politicians are only interested in popularity; they have a four-year time line that’s all.\r\n\r\nBack to my nightmare….\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>DONALD TRUMP – THE U.S. PRESIDENTIAL CIRCUS</li>\r\n 	<li>HOUSING BUBBLES</li>\r\n 	<li>BREXIT and UK FRAGILITY</li>\r\n 	<li>EUROZONE IMPLOSION / CONTAGION EFFECT</li>\r\n 	<li>JAPAN FAILURE</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nIf the opening paragraphs weren’t enough to keep me 24 x 5 at my screens, trading those 5 sub titles above will do just that.\r\n\r\nDONALD TRUMP – THE U.S. PRESIDENTIAL CIRCUS:\r\n\r\nHe’s probably a very nice and interesting guy. He is a salesman, he is used to getting his own way and I totally get why American voters who have been kept in check, ruled by fear for so long see THE DONALD as a breath of fresh air. They are buying a promise that TRUMP will sort out the paralysis party divide driven Washington club that is only interested in themselves and their party with two fingers raised to the electorate that elected them….. I get it.\r\n\r\nThe elitism of Washington and failed leaders from the past who were never able to get a political union to pass key policies has caught up with the nations capital. It has been seen as dysfunctional and heartless in the past, a change is coming sooner or later. Whether you like THE DONALD or not, he has changed the face of U.S. politics, it is a reality show on TV and the media who are just as big dinosaurs as Washington, were caught off guard and simply did not know how to react. The media in the U.S. is bought off just like Oil and Pharmaceuticals. The media had to shift gear as they were seen to be biased which we all know they are, but they have to attempt to hide that bias.\r\n\r\nTHE DONALD shake up, should he be elected in November will in my opinion cause a stock market sell off. There will be so much uncertainty. Even now as the presumptive nominee, he keeps away from policy in preference to personal attacks, and politicians not being the brightest cannot see through this and attack back. In this game THE DONALD has better than a 50-50 chance of a win.\r\n\r\nTHE DONALD &amp; THE U.S. PRESIDENTIAL CIRCUS = uncertainty.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nHOUSING BUBBLES:\r\n\r\nWhilst we are bouncing off the bottom economically all over the world certain pockets, mainly capital and major cities such as LONDON, SYDNEY, AUCKLAND, TORONTO, VANCOUVER, SAN FRANCISCO, NEW YORK etc. have housing bubbles and prices are skyrocketing. Central banks and governments want to manage this and not fuel the bubbles, but the balancing act they are required to perform in relation to less well-off parts of their country is a difficult one.\r\n\r\nWe are one geopolitical event away from a HOUSING CRASH as a bubble bursts; will this be another “House of Cards”?\r\n\r\nRemember in the currency wars, lower interest rates are seen as key. Lower interest rates will only fuel local housing bubbles.\r\n\r\nHOUSING BUBBLES = uncertainty.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nBREXIT:\r\n\r\nThere is a belief that at the end of the day a “Better the devil you know than the devil you don’t” approach to voting IN or OUT will apply in the UK. I am now reading articles telling me that educated people want to REMAIN and the less well educated want a BREXIT.\r\n\r\nIn 2016, isn’t it just great the way we pigeon hole and pre-judge facts. Frankly, whilst it is relatively straightforward to put an X in a box to stay or go, it’s not that simple.\r\n\r\nAs the TV debates happen the facts will come out and more of a balanced discussion can take place. The media in the UK is the same as the U.S., largely it is biased and very opinionated and whilst voting habits will be directed by what channel and what newspaper you read, nearly all decisions in the UK fall in the hands of the 10-15% floating voter. Are these people well educated or not well educated, I doubt all the research in the world could answer this.\r\n\r\nIn addition, the polls got the Scottish referendum and the UK election that followed arseways, so I for one would not be beholden to a UK poll result.\r\n\r\nI am not 100% convinced on all the facts that I am told to believe about the merits of a REMAIN or BREXIT vote. More debate is definitely required, and more qualification of the alleged facts. This is NOT a done deal as we are led to believe, it is complicated.\r\n\r\nLet me give you one fact that I am hearing that I have yet to read about; tradesmen in the UK are really pissed off with the freedom of employment policy within the EUROPEAN UNION. From distressed markets in mainland Europe, tradesman come to the UK, to set up, it’s all above board. However, as a result of even greater competition in an already distressed UK market they squeeze margins that are already tight. The trade unions are NOT happy; never mind your local plumber, electrician, builder etc. These people account for a huge number of voters especially when you add in families etc. I am told that the building / home improvement industry is virtually BREXIT committed.\r\n\r\nRemember Mark Carney BOE governor, with his failed forward guidance policy for the markets. His forward guidance was totally 100% market misleading. The classic being, when unemployment fell to 7% that was Carney’s original trigger to raise rates. Unemployment is now at 5% and the BOE is talking more about DOVISH policies rather than HAWKISH.\r\n\r\nDavid Cameron (Prime Minister) talks about how good the UK economy is yet here we are still on the bottom, no movement, what is wrong?\r\n\r\nAre all the statistics that we are given to measure performance by, so manipulated through years of massaging that they do not adequately reflect a true position anymore?\r\n\r\nAm I such a cynic to believe that as governments receive the true data, they hide away from the public eye and spend their days popping Prozac and hiding under their desks? Politicians lie and they mislead to maintain popularity and votes…there are “LYIN’ TEDS” everywhere around the globe!!\r\n\r\nBREXIT and UK FRAGILITY = uncertainty.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nEUROZONE IMPLOSION / CONTAGION EFFECT:\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, the EUROZONE is still very fragile and one step from dropping off the cliff. The refugee crisis, GREECE, unemployment, DEFLATION and a UK BREXIT… take your pick.\r\n\r\nMario Draghi (ECB, President) has gone as far as he can, the markets have basically told him to feck off. He has NO bullets, NO bazookas left.\r\n\r\n27 countries in the EUROZONE need to implement major structural reforms to improve and bring back growth to the stagnating economies. As I wrote before, there is more chance of GREECE winning the space race to Mars.\r\n\r\nWhat happens should a BREXIT vote prevail in the UK? I am of the opinion that many of the EUROZONE populist parties are ready, waiting and watching ready to capitalize, such as: -\r\n\r\nGERMANY:                 Alternative for Germany\r\nFRANCE:                     National Front\r\nITALY:                          Five Stars\r\nSPAIN:                         Podermos\r\nNETHERLANDS:      Party for Freedom\r\nAUSTRIA:                   Austrian Freedom Party\r\nFINLAND:                  Finns Party\r\n\r\nOn Friday last week I noticed a great quote from Jeroen Dijsselbloem, leader of the EUROZONE Finance Ministers, it said “FX intervention to improve competitive unwise”. Holy Mother of God what rock has he been hiding under.\r\n\r\nEUROZONE IMPLOSION / CONTAGION EFFECT = uncertainty.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nJAPAN FAILS:\r\n\r\nFrom the country that has the largest QE and QQE program ever, we still have problems. Reputations are on the line, Abe (Prime Minister) and Kuroda (BOJ); are for want of a better phrase looking down the barrel of a shotgun.\r\n\r\nWe are now a couple of years or so into Abe’s policy initiatives to bring Japan out of recession, stimulate growth and provide a stabilizing effect with the YEN for businesses moving forward. Initially it worked, the YEN was weakened and businesses could export cheaper as the weaker YEN created greater competitiveness. Of late this has faltered and like most economies Japan is fragile.\r\n\r\nThe debate is on regarding whether the YEN is a flight to safety currency moving forward, that aside there is NOT an infinitum amount of time for Abe. The last time Kuroda came to the markets he disappointed big time. It has taken a lot of jawboning to strengthen the YEN.\r\n\r\nJAPAN FAILURE = uncertainty.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>DONALD TRUMP – THE U.S. PRESIDENTIAL CIRCUS</li>\r\n 	<li>HOUSING BUBBLES</li>\r\n 	<li>BREXIT and UK FRAGILITY</li>\r\n 	<li>EUROZONE IMPLOSION / CONTAGION EFFECT</li>\r\n 	<li>JAPAN FAILURE</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nWe have an inter-connected world and the domino effect is real and threatening when you have as I see it so many precipice issues.\r\n\r\nIt’s all about confidence.\r\n\r\nAt the end of the day FEAR and GREED will rule as they always do.\r\n\r\nMost central banks have nothing to add should we hit a recession, which is my fear; my nightmare scenario. The kitchen sink and all fittings plus the all bathroom items and fittings have been thrown at markets to solidify and stimulate. Only the extreme unconventional measures are left, such as negative interest rates and literally the buying of stocks, as many central banks have no more bonds or fixed assets left to purchase.\r\n\r\nFrom a trading perspective there would be massive volatility, with huge worldwide implications… will my nightmare become a reality or partial reality?\r\n\r\nWill one domino fall taking the rest with it?\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBER EXCLUSIVE AREA:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> COMING UP THIS WEEK:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>THIS WEEK’S FOREX NEWS THAT INTERESTS ME:</u>\r\n\r\n(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market other than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to <a href=\"http://www.forexfactory.com\">www.forexfactory.com</a> and <a href=\"http://www.tradingeconomics.com\">www.tradingeconomics.com</a> for a more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nSUNDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: CAD – BOC Rate Statement.\r\nWEDNESDAY: NZD – Annual Budget Release.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>THE USD MAJORS – MY THOUGHTS (A REVIEW): </u>\r\n\r\n(In this section I have as usual kept my charts as minimalist as possible. With regards to charting in my opinion less is more!! I hope that they are clear. All readers regardless of level of experience should be able to follow my thoughts from my comments to the levels on the charts with ease)\r\n\r\nMy comments are contained on the charts.\r\n\r\nEUR/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.1221\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/EURUSD-D-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7926\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/EURUSD-D-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"EURUSD D 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nGBP/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.4497\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/GBPUSD-D-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7927\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/GBPUSD-D-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"GBPUSD D 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nAUD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.7222\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/AUDUSD-D-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7925\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/AUDUSD-D-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"AUDUSD D 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nNZD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.6762\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/NZDUSD-D-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7928\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/NZDUSD-D-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"NZDUSD D 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.3113\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDCAD-D-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7929\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDCAD-D-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"USDCAD D 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF - Weekly Closing Price: 0.9900\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDCHF-DAILY-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7937\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDCHF-DAILY-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"USDCHF DAILY 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY - Weekly Closing Price: 110.11\r\n\r\n<u><a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDJPY-D-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7931\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDJPY-D-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"USDJPY D 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a></u>\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u>MY CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nThe FOMC drove the markets last week and the USD strengthened further on the back of a HAWKISH April meeting minutes. After, the data release we have seen to a large extent consolidation moves, which are completely normal. It is now this coming week when I will be entering back into the market once again, albeit slow and steady given all the warnings that I see that I have written about in this week’s blog.\r\n\r\nWe are light on news that interests me this week.\r\n\r\nBe prepared the BOC could cut. The wild fires around Fort McMurray will be a huge burden on the Canadian economy and I think that for once Stephen Poloz (BOC, Governor) may want to be a head of the curve. It may not happen but be ready just in case.\r\n\r\nI think that the oil price has peaked, so should the BOC cut and the oil price falls the USD/CAD could be back at 1.3600 very quickly.\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nTake care,\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nDATE: 21<sup>st</sup> May 2016\r\nBLOG VERSION: #202 FREE NEWSLETTER VERSION\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','THE NIGHTMARE SCENARIO','','inherit','closed','closed','','7947-revision-v1','','','2016-05-21 11:20:34','2016-05-21 16:20:34','',7947,'http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/7947-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(7949,1,'2016-05-21 13:29:40','2016-05-21 18:29:40','<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong> INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nLast week was as they say…”One helluva week”.\r\n\r\nI made the decision ahead of the FOMC minutes release to basically have a clear out of many open trades, reduce position sizes, play with stops and take pips and profits off the table. I was lucky the day coincided with another BREXIT poll. This one was mainly based around London and published in the Evening Standard newspaper the night before (for me). It was a big “remain” vote ahead of BREXIT and the cable rallied.\r\n\r\nThe cable rally helped GBP/NZD longs, EUR/GBP shorts and generally gave the FX markets a window when a sigh of relief appeared to be taken. I capitalized on these moves and took just over 1,000 pips out of the market in a couple of hours.\r\n\r\nIn fact, looking back over the past month or so, ever since I decided that TWITTER was full of bullsh*t and ego driven alleged traders with no skin in the game, which in turn, resulted in me pulling back from TWITTER on my main feed @pipaccumulator, my trading performance has improved….go figure that one?\r\n\r\nWhilst it means my exposure to new subscribers is considerably less, my trading fortunes have improved. Obviously, my brain is now in turmoil; how do I strike that balance of tweeting, adding fresh subscribers to the PREMIUM SERVICE and maintaining the run of great momentum and probability trades. That is a bottle of wine, or maybe the Jack and Diet debate that needs to be done over this weekend.\r\n\r\nNevertheless, this month so far the PREMIUM SERVICE has added 1,766 pips and year to date the total is 5,580 pips. Whilst we are not yet at the end of the month, the profit/loss ratio is great and income per trade is up. As my buddy Roger says “Happy Days!!”\r\n\r\nShifting gears…\r\n\r\nFREE PREMIUM SERVICE subscriptions, just to remind you; you could be the next winner of a free PREMIUM SERVICE subscription; if you subscribe to receive this free blog via my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nYou are automatically entered into a free monthly draw, once you’ve subscribed. Each month during 2016 one lucky blog subscriber will receive a free subscription to the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\nAs I am the UK and IRELAND in June and early July the next winner will enjoy a subscription until my summer break in mid July. The next draw after the one in a couple of weeks will then be early September after my summer break from blogging.\r\n\r\nMy plans for the short tour of the UK and IRELAND (see chart below with itinerary) are intensifying a lot more now. My power point software skills are being pushed to the limits, never mind the continual refining of the presentation content.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/TOUR-DATES-2016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7522\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/TOUR-DATES-2016.png\" alt=\"TOUR DATES 2016\" width=\"624\" height=\"397\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nI hope to meet and greet many traders on this trip and I am really excited about the presentations that are scheduled. Please come along if you can and bring friends who you think may be interested in starting to trade the Forex market.\r\n\r\nSpaces are limited so to register for an event, please go to my landing page on <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> and click on LIVE EVENTS. The drop down menu there has all the information that you will require, plus the email address to use to register at to reserve a space. I would place it here but I would end up getting thousand’s of SPAM emails, which I want to avoid.\r\n\r\nPlease note that because of the TOUR, copies of this blog will have a revised format on the following dates: -\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">18<sup>th</sup> June 2016\r\n25<sup>th</sup> June 2016\r\n2<sup>nd</sup> July 2016</p>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber, fee based trade set-up option for Forex traders regardless of experience or background. I provide traders suggested trades, and some market commentary related to open trades or factors within the overall market that have my interest.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and the various trade styles plus how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nAdditional information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE you will require a credit card.\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u>PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION COSTS:</u>\r\n\r\nDetails of features and benefits of a PREMIUM SERVICE subscription can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the dropdown tab at the top of the page entitled HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE OF THE PREMIUM SERVICE. To subscribe follow the SUBSCRIBE HERE tab.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">PREMIUM SERVICE subscription costs are as follows: -</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">CAD$240.00 - 4 weeks (1 month)\r\nCAD$500.00 - 10 weeks (3 months)\r\nCAD$750.00 - 20 weeks (6 months)\r\nCAD$1,250.00 - 40 weeks (12 months)\r\n<u>PLUS</u>: Existing PLATINUM MEMBERS (annual subscribers) can re-subscribe for a further 12 months for CAD$1,000.00</p>\r\nI work for 40 weeks or so a year, the annual subscription is based on 40 published blogs of the WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU. For the remaining 12 weeks of the year, I am usually around tweeting and managing existing LIVE trades.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><u>PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE THIS MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:</u></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">NET PIPS THIS MONTH SO FAR:            +1,766\r\nNET PIPS THIS YEAR SO FAR:                +5,580</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">NET PIPS 2015:       +10,686\r\nNET PIPS 2014:       +11,209\r\n(I trade basically for 10 months a year. I do not trade from mid July through early September or mid December through early January).</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">If you want more data or detail about the performance and the tabs on my website landing page do not answer your questions, contact me directly and I will supply the trading data you require. There are NO secrets. There are many, many spreadsheets detailing performance trade by trade and by trade and by trading style, way too many to place in this blog. If you are interested in the PREMIUM SERVICE and want more information, all you have to do is ask.</p>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>LAST WEEK’S NEWS – MY THOUGHTS:</strong>\r\n\r\nWhilst there were a few high note events and pieces of news last week, as far as I am concerned the FOMC minutes took first place and all else dropped down to the lower peg.\r\n\r\nEverything last week was really focused on would the FED mention hikes in the minutes? Without doubt, ahead of the data release, there was a coordinated\r\n\r\neffort by the FED to start talking up the possibility of a hike in June or July. Significantly, there were no comments from Janet Yellen or her boy Stanley Fischer and whilst we are really none the wiser, the market is what it is, and is starting to show a reaction to a rate hike possibility. (I am looking at this later in the blog, so I will keep my powder dry until later).\r\n\r\nThe minutes were a little HAWKISH and the USD gained strength across the board, at the moment we are consolidating that move and the prior moves of USD buying.\r\n\r\nThere are huge event risks, which I talked about a couple of weeks ago, still hanging over the markets and I believe that there is a realization that the FED needs to put something away for a rainy day given all the risks ahead and therefore the desire to hike is stronger. Yellen is a DOVE, she is not a risk taker and she is surrounded by a group of individuals, who are at times loose canons but they all fall in line when she has them in a room and they have to vote. When they are not in that room to vote they say what they want and it can be very misleading, especially as the non-voting members of the Fed can cloud the issue.\r\n\r\nSo, I am not getting carried away in any direction at the moment, other than I do think that the FED has to act sooner rather than later and the dithering of the past will just kill them moving forward if they continue with a wait and see policy. The Fed is in great danger of being behind the curve and the continued dithering causes uncertainly. Allegedly, uncertainty is one thing that the FED does not want to create. So far in my opinion, they are guilty if this.\r\n\r\nRight now, it looks like the USD is consolidating for a move higher back towards 100.00 and beyond. Lets see what happens.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>WHAT’S BIG ON MY MIND:</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>THE NIGHTMARE SCENARIO</strong></p>\r\nI trade, I blog and do my very best to provide my subscribers with trade set-ups to make them and myself a nice little income. I am now using the phrase “STEADY EDDIE” a lot as I believe it’s all about consistency and letting the trades come to you. There is little point trading for trade’s sake. It’s not my style and I believe that one should stick to one’s strengths rather than have weaknesses exposed.\r\n\r\nOver the past week or so as I analyze the geopolitical events and major monetary policy decisions that are on the horizon, I am constantly getting myself geared up for what I am calling the NIGHTMARE SCENARIO.\r\n\r\nI am of the opinion that we are heading feet first into a full-blown recession, eyes open and there seems to be an atmosphere around of complacency that all economic matters in the world, whilst not perfect are moving along slowly but in the right direction.\r\n\r\nAs stated I think a little differently. I believe we are on the brink of recession in Canada, the USA, the UK and the rest of Europe and probably Japan as well. I know people will quote government economic data, I believe a lot of this data is massaged to the extent that at times it seems to be detached from reality on the ground in Main Street.\r\n\r\nEverything for me is based around simplicity, why over-complicate matters. Over complication creates misleading interpretation, which, in my opinion, leads to further complication and I strongly believe that this was at the core of the securitization issues that led to the 2007-8 financial crash.\r\n\r\nWe are at the precipice at the moment with so many economies around the world. One jitter, one bad move and like a house of cards it all falls down.\r\n\r\nLet me elaborate…\r\n\r\nRightly or wrongly, it’s my blog and I can what I want.\r\n\r\nKeeping it really simple, I believe that housing is about 75-85% of the catalyst for everything in an economy. It is the circle from which it all happens, employment, wages the lot.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>If the housing market is moving, people are always doing home improvements or buying goods, equipment and services.</li>\r\n 	<li>Contractors are always busy and small business grows.</li>\r\n 	<li>People are hired and wages improve.</li>\r\n 	<li>The tax intake for an economy improves through both direct and indirect taxes.</li>\r\n 	<li>Local economies expand as local councils/towns invest in infrastructure and services.</li>\r\n 	<li>Central government invests in infrastructure and grand projects.</li>\r\n 	<li>Bank lending expands and businesses grow and have expansion plans.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nWe are not really getting this. As soon as you see green shoots of growth we are brought back to earth with a bang, as bad news always seems to follow good news these days… why is this?\r\n\r\nYes, I believe that the FED dithered in 2015 and missed the moment. Janet Yellen had to raise rates in December 2015 to save face.\r\n\r\nYes, I believe that the German approach of Austerity has set back the EUROZONE economically for decades. The handling of the GREECE debt is a disgrace. The constant refusal to offer debt relief to a country that has more chance, of launching a space program, and being the first to have a man on Mars, than repay its loans before ARMAGEDDON hits, beggars belief.\r\n\r\nYes, I believe that market correlations are so inter-twinned now that we are very quickly approaching the “one world – one market” scenario. Many might argue to a large extent we are already there.\r\n\r\nYes, I also believe that to a very large extent central banks are now largely emasculated. I was and still am, undecided 100%... (do you feel my indecision?) on the side that Central Bank monetary policy is the biggest factor in price movement in the currency markets. Yet, I believe that we have come to the end of the road regarding fiscal initiatives and structural reforms are now required. The markets are now immune to a large extent with the CURRENCY WARS. Previous moves after central bank policy initiatives by the BOJ and ECB highlight this point perfectly.\r\n\r\nFor nearly my entire trading career, all I have heard month after month are central bank governors or presidents stating that they are not achieving their growth GDP objectives. They reset the poorly set out goals to lower levels and then stretch out the timeline to meet these goals which are still NEVER achieved. This happens every few months from every central bank.\r\n\r\nCentral banks want inflation. They are just not getting it. In fact we have had more DEFLATION than INFLATION in the last 10 years. All central banks do is set targets to please I do not know who, they fail to meet these and they do a reset and push out… We need structural reforms within governments.\r\n\r\nPoliticians will not commit. They are scared sh**less at the thought. Politicians are only interested in popularity; they have a four-year time line that’s all.\r\n\r\nBack to my nightmare….\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>DONALD TRUMP – THE U.S. PRESIDENTIAL CIRCUS</li>\r\n 	<li>HOUSING BUBBLES</li>\r\n 	<li>BREXIT and UK FRAGILITY</li>\r\n 	<li>EUROZONE IMPLOSION / CONTAGION EFFECT</li>\r\n 	<li>JAPAN FAILURE</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nIf the opening paragraphs weren’t enough to keep me 24 x 5 at my screens, trading those 5 sub titles above will do just that.\r\n\r\nDONALD TRUMP – THE U.S. PRESIDENTIAL CIRCUS:\r\n\r\nHe’s probably a very nice and interesting guy. He is a salesman, he is used to getting his own way and I totally get why American voters who have been kept in check, ruled by fear for so long see THE DONALD as a breath of fresh air. They are buying a promise that TRUMP will sort out the paralysis party divide driven Washington club that is only interested in themselves and their party with two fingers raised to the electorate that elected them….. I get it.\r\n\r\nThe elitism of Washington and failed leaders from the past who were never able to get a political union to pass key policies has caught up with the nations capital. It has been seen as dysfunctional and heartless in the past, a change is coming sooner or later. Whether you like THE DONALD or not, he has changed the face of U.S. politics, it is a reality show on TV and the media who are just as big dinosaurs as Washington, were caught off guard and simply did not know how to react. The media in the U.S. is bought off just like Oil and Pharmaceuticals. The media had to shift gear as they were seen to be biased which we all know they are, but they have to attempt to hide that bias.\r\n\r\nTHE DONALD shake up, should he be elected in November will in my opinion cause a stock market sell off. There will be so much uncertainty. Even now as the presumptive nominee, he keeps away from policy in preference to personal attacks, and politicians not being the brightest cannot see through this and attack back. In this game THE DONALD has better than a 50-50 chance of a win.\r\n\r\nTHE DONALD &amp; THE U.S. PRESIDENTIAL CIRCUS = uncertainty.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nHOUSING BUBBLES:\r\n\r\nWhilst we are bouncing off the bottom economically all over the world certain pockets, mainly capital and major cities such as LONDON, SYDNEY, AUCKLAND, TORONTO, VANCOUVER, SAN FRANCISCO, NEW YORK etc. have housing bubbles and prices are skyrocketing. Central banks and governments want to manage this and not fuel the bubbles, but the balancing act they are required to perform in relation to less well-off parts of their country is a difficult one.\r\n\r\nWe are one geopolitical event away from a HOUSING CRASH as a bubble bursts; will this be another “House of Cards”?\r\n\r\nRemember in the currency wars, lower interest rates are seen as key. Lower interest rates will only fuel local housing bubbles.\r\n\r\nHOUSING BUBBLES = uncertainty.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nBREXIT:\r\n\r\nThere is a belief that at the end of the day a “Better the devil you know than the devil you don’t” approach to voting IN or OUT will apply in the UK. I am now reading articles telling me that educated people want to REMAIN and the less well educated want a BREXIT.\r\n\r\nIn 2016, isn’t it just great the way we pigeon hole and pre-judge facts. Frankly, whilst it is relatively straightforward to put an X in a box to stay or go, it’s not that simple.\r\n\r\nAs the TV debates happen the facts will come out and more of a balanced discussion can take place. The media in the UK is the same as the U.S., largely it is biased and very opinionated and whilst voting habits will be directed by what channel and what newspaper you read, nearly all decisions in the UK fall in the hands of the 10-15% floating voter. Are these people well educated or not well educated, I doubt all the research in the world could answer this.\r\n\r\nIn addition, the polls got the Scottish referendum and the UK election that followed arseways, so I for one would not be beholden to a UK poll result.\r\n\r\nI am not 100% convinced on all the facts that I am told to believe about the merits of a REMAIN or BREXIT vote. More debate is definitely required, and more qualification of the alleged facts. This is NOT a done deal as we are led to believe, it is complicated.\r\n\r\nLet me give you one fact that I am hearing that I have yet to read about; tradesmen in the UK are really pissed off with the freedom of employment policy within the EUROPEAN UNION. From distressed markets in mainland Europe, tradesman come to the UK, to set up, it’s all above board. However, as a result of even greater competition in an already distressed UK market they squeeze margins that are already tight. The trade unions are NOT happy; never mind your local plumber, electrician, builder etc. These people account for a huge number of voters especially when you add in families etc. I am told that the building / home improvement industry is virtually BREXIT committed.\r\n\r\nRemember Mark Carney BOE governor, with his failed forward guidance policy for the markets. His forward guidance was totally 100% market misleading. The classic being, when unemployment fell to 7% that was Carney’s original trigger to raise rates. Unemployment is now at 5% and the BOE is talking more about DOVISH policies rather than HAWKISH.\r\n\r\nDavid Cameron (Prime Minister) talks about how good the UK economy is yet here we are still on the bottom, no movement, what is wrong?\r\n\r\nAre all the statistics that we are given to measure performance by, so manipulated through years of massaging that they do not adequately reflect a true position anymore?\r\n\r\nAm I such a cynic to believe that as governments receive the true data, they hide away from the public eye and spend their days popping Prozac and hiding under their desks? Politicians lie and they mislead to maintain popularity and votes…there are “LYIN’ TEDS” everywhere around the globe!!\r\n\r\nBREXIT and UK FRAGILITY = uncertainty.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nEUROZONE IMPLOSION / CONTAGION EFFECT:\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, the EUROZONE is still very fragile and one step from dropping off the cliff. The refugee crisis, GREECE, unemployment, DEFLATION and a UK BREXIT… take your pick.\r\n\r\nMario Draghi (ECB, President) has gone as far as he can, the markets have basically told him to feck off. He has NO bullets, NO bazookas left.\r\n\r\n27 countries in the EUROZONE need to implement major structural reforms to improve and bring back growth to the stagnating economies. As I wrote before, there is more chance of GREECE winning the space race to Mars.\r\n\r\nWhat happens should a BREXIT vote prevail in the UK? I am of the opinion that many of the EUROZONE populist parties are ready, waiting and watching ready to capitalize, such as: -\r\n\r\nGERMANY:                 Alternative for Germany\r\nFRANCE:                     National Front\r\nITALY:                          Five Stars\r\nSPAIN:                         Podermos\r\nNETHERLANDS:      Party for Freedom\r\nAUSTRIA:                   Austrian Freedom Party\r\nFINLAND:                  Finns Party\r\n\r\nOn Friday last week I noticed a great quote from Jeroen Dijsselbloem, leader of the EUROZONE Finance Ministers, it said “FX intervention to improve competitive unwise”. Holy Mother of God what rock has he been hiding under.\r\n\r\nEUROZONE IMPLOSION / CONTAGION EFFECT = uncertainty.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nJAPAN FAILS:\r\n\r\nFrom the country that has the largest QE and QQE program ever, we still have problems. Reputations are on the line, Abe (Prime Minister) and Kuroda (BOJ); are for want of a better phrase looking down the barrel of a shotgun.\r\n\r\nWe are now a couple of years or so into Abe’s policy initiatives to bring Japan out of recession, stimulate growth and provide a stabilizing effect with the YEN for businesses moving forward. Initially it worked, the YEN was weakened and businesses could export cheaper as the weaker YEN created greater competitiveness. Of late this has faltered and like most economies Japan is fragile.\r\n\r\nThe debate is on regarding whether the YEN is a flight to safety currency moving forward, that aside there is NOT an infinitum amount of time for Abe. The last time Kuroda came to the markets he disappointed big time. It has taken a lot of jawboning to strengthen the YEN.\r\n\r\nJAPAN FAILURE = uncertainty.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>DONALD TRUMP – THE U.S. PRESIDENTIAL CIRCUS</li>\r\n 	<li>HOUSING BUBBLES</li>\r\n 	<li>BREXIT and UK FRAGILITY</li>\r\n 	<li>EUROZONE IMPLOSION / CONTAGION EFFECT</li>\r\n 	<li>JAPAN FAILURE</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nWe have an inter-connected world and the domino effect is real and threatening when you have as I see it so many precipice issues.\r\n\r\nIt’s all about confidence.\r\n\r\nAt the end of the day FEAR and GREED will rule as they always do.\r\n\r\nMost central banks have nothing to add should we hit a recession, which is my fear; my nightmare scenario. The kitchen sink and all fittings plus the all bathroom items and fittings have been thrown at markets to solidify and stimulate. Only the extreme unconventional measures are left, such as negative interest rates and literally the buying of stocks, as many central banks have no more bonds or fixed assets left to purchase.\r\n\r\nFrom a trading perspective there would be massive volatility, with huge worldwide implications… will my nightmare become a reality or partial reality?\r\n\r\nWill one domino fall taking the rest with it?\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBER EXCLUSIVE AREA:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> COMING UP THIS WEEK:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>THIS WEEK’S FOREX NEWS THAT INTERESTS ME:</u>\r\n\r\n(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market other than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to <a href=\"http://www.forexfactory.com\">www.forexfactory.com</a> and <a href=\"http://www.tradingeconomics.com\">www.tradingeconomics.com</a> for a more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nSUNDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: CAD – BOC Rate Statement.\r\nWEDNESDAY: NZD – Annual Budget Release.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>THE USD MAJORS – MY THOUGHTS (A REVIEW): </u>\r\n\r\n(In this section I have as usual kept my charts as minimalist as possible. With regards to charting in my opinion less is more!! I hope that they are clear. All readers regardless of level of experience should be able to follow my thoughts from my comments to the levels on the charts with ease)\r\n\r\nMy comments are contained on the charts.\r\n\r\nEUR/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.1221\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/EURUSD-D-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7926\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/EURUSD-D-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"EURUSD D 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nGBP/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.4497\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/GBPUSD-D-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7927\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/GBPUSD-D-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"GBPUSD D 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nAUD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.7222\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/AUDUSD-D-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7925\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/AUDUSD-D-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"AUDUSD D 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nNZD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.6762\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/NZDUSD-D-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7928\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/NZDUSD-D-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"NZDUSD D 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.3113\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDCAD-D-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7929\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDCAD-D-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"USDCAD D 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF - Weekly Closing Price: 0.9900\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDCHF-DAILY-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7937\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDCHF-DAILY-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"USDCHF DAILY 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY - Weekly Closing Price: 110.11\r\n\r\n<u><a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDJPY-D-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7931\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDJPY-D-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"USDJPY D 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a></u>\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u>MY CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nThe FOMC drove the markets last week and the USD strengthened further on the back of a HAWKISH April meeting minutes. After, the data release we have seen to a large extent consolidation moves, which are completely normal. It is now this coming week when I will be entering back into the market once again, albeit slow and steady given all the warnings that I see that I have written about in this week’s blog.\r\n\r\nWe are light on news that interests me this week.\r\n\r\nBe prepared the BOC could cut. The wild fires around Fort McMurray will be a huge burden on the Canadian economy and I think that for once Stephen Poloz (BOC, Governor) may want to be ahead of the curve. It may not happen but be ready just in case.\r\n\r\nI think that the oil price has peaked, so should the BOC cut and the oil price falls the USD/CAD could be back at 1.3600 very quickly.\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nTake care,\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n\r\nDATE: 21<sup>st</sup> May 2016\r\nBLOG VERSION: #202 FREE NEWSLETTER VERSION\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','THE NIGHTMARE SCENARIO','','inherit','closed','closed','','7947-revision-v1','','','2016-05-21 13:29:40','2016-05-21 18:29:40','',7947,'http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/7947-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(7950,1,'2016-05-21 13:35:35','2016-05-21 18:35:35','<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong> INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nLast week was as they say…”One helluva week”.\r\n\r\nI made the decision ahead of the FOMC minutes release to basically have a clear out of many open trades, reduce position sizes, play with stops and take pips and profits off the table. I was lucky the day coincided with another BREXIT poll. This one was mainly based around London and published in the Evening Standard newspaper the night before (for me). It was a big “remain” vote ahead of BREXIT and the cable rallied.\r\n\r\nThe cable rally helped GBP/NZD longs, EUR/GBP shorts and generally gave the FX markets a window when a sigh of relief appeared to be taken. I capitalized on these moves and took just over 1,000 pips out of the market in a couple of hours.\r\n\r\nIn fact, looking back over the past month or so, ever since I decided that TWITTER was full of bullsh*t and ego driven alleged traders with no skin in the game, which in turn, resulted in me pulling back from TWITTER on my main feed @pipaccumulator, my trading performance has improved….go figure that one?\r\n\r\nWhilst it means my exposure to new subscribers is considerably less, my trading fortunes have improved. Obviously, my brain is now in turmoil; how do I strike that balance of tweeting, adding fresh subscribers to the PREMIUM SERVICE and maintaining the run of great momentum and probability trades. That is a bottle of wine, or maybe the Jack and Diet debate that needs to be done over this weekend.\r\n\r\nNevertheless, this month so far the PREMIUM SERVICE has added 1,766 pips and year to date the total is 5,580 pips. Whilst we are not yet at the end of the month, the profit/loss ratio is great and income per trade is up. As my buddy Roger says “Happy Days!!”\r\n\r\nShifting gears…\r\n\r\nFREE PREMIUM SERVICE subscriptions, just to remind you; you could be the next winner of a free PREMIUM SERVICE subscription; if you subscribe to receive this free blog via my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a><strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nYou are automatically entered into a free monthly draw, once you’ve subscribed. Each month during 2016 one lucky blog subscriber will receive a free subscription to the PREMIUM SERVICE.\r\n\r\nAs I am the UK and IRELAND in June and early July the next winner will enjoy a subscription until my summer break in mid July. The next draw after the one in a couple of weeks will then be early September after my summer break from blogging.\r\n\r\nMy plans for the short tour of the UK and IRELAND (see chart below with itinerary) are intensifying a lot more now. My power point software skills are being pushed to the limits, never mind the continual refining of the presentation content.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/TOUR-DATES-2016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7597\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/TOUR-DATES-2016.png\" alt=\"TOUR DATES 2016\" width=\"630\" height=\"397\" /></a>\r\n\r\nI hope to meet and greet many traders on this trip and I am really excited about the presentations that are scheduled. Please come along if you can and bring friends who you think may be interested in starting to trade the Forex market.\r\n\r\nSpaces are limited so to register for an event, please go to my landing page on <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> and click on LIVE EVENTS. The drop down menu there has all the information that you will require, plus the email address to use to register at to reserve a space. I would place it here but I would end up getting thousand’s of SPAM emails, which I want to avoid.\r\n\r\nPlease note that because of the TOUR, copies of this blog will have a revised format on the following dates: -\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">18<sup>th</sup> June 2016\r\n25<sup>th</sup> June 2016\r\n2<sup>nd</sup> July 2016</p>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</u>\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber, fee based trade set-up option for Forex traders regardless of experience or background. I provide traders suggested trades, and some market commentary related to open trades or factors within the overall market that have my interest.\r\n\r\nFull details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and the various trade styles plus how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.\r\n\r\nAdditional information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE you will require a credit card\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><u>PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION COSTS:</u></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Details of features and benefits of a PREMIUM SERVICE subscription can be found on my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the dropdown tab at the top of the page entitled HISTORY &amp; PERFORMANCE OF THE PREMIUM SERVICE. To subscribe follow the SUBSCRIBE HERE tab.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">PREMIUM SERVICE subscription costs are as follows: -</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">CAD$240.00 - 4 weeks (1 month)\r\nCAD$500.00 - 10 weeks (3 months)\r\nCAD$750.00 - 20 weeks (6 months)\r\nCAD$1,250.00 - 40 weeks (12 months)\r\n<u>PLUS</u>: Existing PLATINUM MEMBERS (annual subscribers) can re-subscribe for a further 12 months for CAD$1,000.00</p>\r\nI work for 40 weeks or so a year, the annual subscription is based on 40 published blogs of the WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU. For the remaining 12 weeks of the year, I am usually around tweeting and managing existing LIVE trades.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><u>PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE THIS MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:</u></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">NET PIPS THIS MONTH SO FAR:            +1,766\r\nNET PIPS THIS YEAR SO FAR:                +5,580</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">NET PIPS 2015:       +10,686\r\nNET PIPS 2014:       +11,209</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">(I trade basically for 10 months a year. I do not trade from mid July through early September or mid December through early January).</p>\r\nIf you want more data or detail about the performance and the tabs on my website landing page do not answer your questions, contact me directly and I will supply the trading data you require. There are NO secrets. There are many, many spreadsheets detailing performance trade by trade and by trade and by trading style, way too many to place in this blog. If you are interested in the PREMIUM SERVICE and want more information, all you have to do is ask.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n 	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>LAST WEEK’S NEWS – MY THOUGHTS:</strong>\r\n\r\nWhilst there were a few high note events and pieces of news last week, as far as I am concerned the FOMC minutes took first place and all else dropped down to the lower peg.\r\n\r\nEverything last week was really focused on would the FED mention hikes in the minutes? Without doubt, ahead of the data release, there was a coordinated\r\n\r\neffort by the FED to start talking up the possibility of a hike in June or July. Significantly, there were no comments from Janet Yellen or her boy Stanley Fischer and whilst we are really none the wiser, the market is what it is, and is starting to show a reaction to a rate hike possibility. (I am looking at this later in the blog, so I will keep my powder dry until later).\r\n\r\nThe minutes were a little HAWKISH and the USD gained strength across the board, at the moment we are consolidating that move and the prior moves of USD buying.\r\n\r\nThere are huge event risks, which I talked about a couple of weeks ago, still hanging over the markets and I believe that there is a realization that the FED needs to put something away for a rainy day given all the risks ahead and therefore the desire to hike is stronger. Yellen is a DOVE, she is not a risk taker and she is surrounded by a group of individuals, who are at times loose canons but they all fall in line when she has them in a room and they have to vote. When they are not in that room to vote they say what they want and it can be very misleading, especially as the non-voting members of the Fed can cloud the issue.\r\n\r\nSo, I am not getting carried away in any direction at the moment, other than I do think that the FED has to act sooner rather than later and the dithering of the past will just kill them moving forward if they continue with a wait and see policy. The Fed is in great danger of being behind the curve and the continued dithering causes uncertainly. Allegedly, uncertainty is one thing that the FED does not want to create. So far in my opinion, they are guilty if this.\r\n\r\nRight now, it looks like the USD is consolidating for a move higher back towards 100.00 and beyond. Lets see what happens.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>WHAT’S BIG ON MY MIND:</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>THE NIGHTMARE SCENARIO</strong></p>\r\nI trade, I blog and do my very best to provide my subscribers with trade set-ups to make them and myself a nice little income. I am now using the phrase “STEADY EDDIE” a lot as I believe it’s all about consistency and letting the trades come to you. There is little point trading for trade’s sake. It’s not my style and I believe that one should stick to one’s strengths rather than have weaknesses exposed.\r\n\r\nOver the past week or so as I analyze the geopolitical events and major monetary policy decisions that are on the horizon, I am constantly getting myself geared up for what I am calling the NIGHTMARE SCENARIO.\r\n\r\nI am of the opinion that we are heading feet first into a full-blown recession, eyes open and there seems to be an atmosphere around of complacency that all economic matters in the world, whilst not perfect are moving along slowly but in the right direction.\r\n\r\nAs stated I think a little differently. I believe we are on the brink of recession in Canada, the USA, the UK and the rest of Europe and probably Japan as well. I know people will quote government economic data, I believe a lot of this data is massaged to the extent that at times it seems to be detached from reality on the ground in Main Street.\r\n\r\nEverything for me is based around simplicity, why over-complicate matters. Over complication creates misleading interpretation, which, in my opinion, leads to further complication and I strongly believe that this was at the core of the securitization issues that led to the 2007-8 financial crash.\r\n\r\nWe are at the precipice at the moment with so many economies around the world. One jitter, one bad move and like a house of cards it all falls down.\r\n\r\nLet me elaborate…\r\n\r\nRightly or wrongly, it’s my blog and I can what I want.\r\n\r\nKeeping it really simple, I believe that housing is about 75-85% of the catalyst for everything in an economy. It is the circle from which it all happens, employment, wages the lot.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>If the housing market is moving, people are always doing home improvements or buying goods, equipment and services.</li>\r\n 	<li>Contractors are always busy and small business grows.</li>\r\n 	<li>People are hired and wages improve.</li>\r\n 	<li>The tax intake for an economy improves through both direct and indirect taxes.</li>\r\n 	<li>Local economies expand as local councils/towns invest in infrastructure and services.</li>\r\n 	<li>Central government invests in infrastructure and grand projects.</li>\r\n 	<li>Bank lending expands and businesses grow and have expansion plans.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nWe are not really getting this. As soon as you see green shoots of growth we are brought back to earth with a bang, as bad news always seems to follow good news these days… why is this?\r\n\r\nYes, I believe that the FED dithered in 2015 and missed the moment. Janet Yellen had to raise rates in December 2015 to save face.\r\n\r\nYes, I believe that the German approach of Austerity has set back the EUROZONE economically for decades. The handling of the GREECE debt is a disgrace. The constant refusal to offer debt relief to a country that has more chance, of launching a space program, and being the first to have a man on Mars, than repay its loans before ARMAGEDDON hits, beggars belief.\r\n\r\nYes, I believe that market correlations are so inter-twinned now that we are very quickly approaching the “one world – one market” scenario. Many might argue to a large extent we are already there.\r\n\r\nYes, I also believe that to a very large extent central banks are now largely emasculated. I was and still am, undecided 100%... (do you feel my indecision?) on the side that Central Bank monetary policy is the biggest factor in price movement in the currency markets. Yet, I believe that we have come to the end of the road regarding fiscal initiatives and structural reforms are now required. The markets are now immune to a large extent with the CURRENCY WARS. Previous moves after central bank policy initiatives by the BOJ and ECB highlight this point perfectly.\r\n\r\nFor nearly my entire trading career, all I have heard month after month are central bank governors or presidents stating that they are not achieving their growth GDP objectives. They reset the poorly set out goals to lower levels and then stretch out the timeline to meet these goals which are still NEVER achieved. This happens every few months from every central bank.\r\n\r\nCentral banks want inflation. They are just not getting it. In fact we have had more DEFLATION than INFLATION in the last 10 years. All central banks do is set targets to please I do not know who, they fail to meet these and they do a reset and push out… We need structural reforms within governments.\r\n\r\nPoliticians will not commit. They are scared sh**less at the thought. Politicians are only interested in popularity; they have a four-year time line that’s all.\r\n\r\nBack to my nightmare….\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>DONALD TRUMP – THE U.S. PRESIDENTIAL CIRCUS</li>\r\n 	<li>HOUSING BUBBLES</li>\r\n 	<li>BREXIT and UK FRAGILITY</li>\r\n 	<li>EUROZONE IMPLOSION / CONTAGION EFFECT</li>\r\n 	<li>JAPAN FAILURE</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nIf the opening paragraphs weren’t enough to keep me 24 x 5 at my screens, trading those 5 sub titles above will do just that.\r\n\r\nDONALD TRUMP – THE U.S. PRESIDENTIAL CIRCUS:\r\n\r\nHe’s probably a very nice and interesting guy. He is a salesman, he is used to getting his own way and I totally get why American voters who have been kept in check, ruled by fear for so long see THE DONALD as a breath of fresh air. They are buying a promise that TRUMP will sort out the paralysis party divide driven Washington club that is only interested in themselves and their party with two fingers raised to the electorate that elected them….. I get it.\r\n\r\nThe elitism of Washington and failed leaders from the past who were never able to get a political union to pass key policies has caught up with the nations capital. It has been seen as dysfunctional and heartless in the past, a change is coming sooner or later. Whether you like THE DONALD or not, he has changed the face of U.S. politics, it is a reality show on TV and the media who are just as big dinosaurs as Washington, were caught off guard and simply did not know how to react. The media in the U.S. is bought off just like Oil and Pharmaceuticals. The media had to shift gear as they were seen to be biased which we all know they are, but they have to attempt to hide that bias.\r\n\r\nTHE DONALD shake up, should he be elected in November will in my opinion cause a stock market sell off. There will be so much uncertainty. Even now as the presumptive nominee, he keeps away from policy in preference to personal attacks, and politicians not being the brightest cannot see through this and attack back. In this game THE DONALD has better than a 50-50 chance of a win.\r\n\r\nTHE DONALD &amp; THE U.S. PRESIDENTIAL CIRCUS = uncertainty.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nHOUSING BUBBLES:\r\n\r\nWhilst we are bouncing off the bottom economically all over the world certain pockets, mainly capital and major cities such as LONDON, SYDNEY, AUCKLAND, TORONTO, VANCOUVER, SAN FRANCISCO, NEW YORK etc. have housing bubbles and prices are skyrocketing. Central banks and governments want to manage this and not fuel the bubbles, but the balancing act they are required to perform in relation to less well-off parts of their country is a difficult one.\r\n\r\nWe are one geopolitical event away from a HOUSING CRASH as a bubble bursts; will this be another “House of Cards”?\r\n\r\nRemember in the currency wars, lower interest rates are seen as key. Lower interest rates will only fuel local housing bubbles.\r\n\r\nHOUSING BUBBLES = uncertainty.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nBREXIT:\r\n\r\nThere is a belief that at the end of the day a “Better the devil you know than the devil you don’t” approach to voting IN or OUT will apply in the UK. I am now reading articles telling me that educated people want to REMAIN and the less well educated want a BREXIT.\r\n\r\nIn 2016, isn’t it just great the way we pigeon hole and pre-judge facts. Frankly, whilst it is relatively straightforward to put an X in a box to stay or go, it’s not that simple.\r\n\r\nAs the TV debates happen the facts will come out and more of a balanced discussion can take place. The media in the UK is the same as the U.S., largely it is biased and very opinionated and whilst voting habits will be directed by what channel and what newspaper you read, nearly all decisions in the UK fall in the hands of the 10-15% floating voter. Are these people well educated or not well educated, I doubt all the research in the world could answer this.\r\n\r\nIn addition, the polls got the Scottish referendum and the UK election that followed arseways, so I for one would not be beholden to a UK poll result.\r\n\r\nI am not 100% convinced on all the facts that I am told to believe about the merits of a REMAIN or BREXIT vote. More debate is definitely required, and more qualification of the alleged facts. This is NOT a done deal as we are led to believe, it is complicated.\r\n\r\nLet me give you one fact that I am hearing that I have yet to read about; tradesmen in the UK are really pissed off with the freedom of employment policy within the EUROPEAN UNION. From distressed markets in mainland Europe, tradesman come to the UK, to set up, it’s all above board. However, as a result of even greater competition in an already distressed UK market they squeeze margins that are already tight. The trade unions are NOT happy; never mind your local plumber, electrician, builder etc. These people account for a huge number of voters especially when you add in families etc. I am told that the building / home improvement industry is virtually BREXIT committed.\r\n\r\nRemember Mark Carney BOE governor, with his failed forward guidance policy for the markets. His forward guidance was totally 100% market misleading. The classic being, when unemployment fell to 7% that was Carney’s original trigger to raise rates. Unemployment is now at 5% and the BOE is talking more about DOVISH policies rather than HAWKISH.\r\n\r\nDavid Cameron (Prime Minister) talks about how good the UK economy is yet here we are still on the bottom, no movement, what is wrong?\r\n\r\nAre all the statistics that we are given to measure performance by, so manipulated through years of massaging that they do not adequately reflect a true position anymore?\r\n\r\nAm I such a cynic to believe that as governments receive the true data, they hide away from the public eye and spend their days popping Prozac and hiding under their desks? Politicians lie and they mislead to maintain popularity and votes…there are “LYIN’ TEDS” everywhere around the globe!!\r\n\r\nBREXIT and UK FRAGILITY = uncertainty.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nEUROZONE IMPLOSION / CONTAGION EFFECT:\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, the EUROZONE is still very fragile and one step from dropping off the cliff. The refugee crisis, GREECE, unemployment, DEFLATION and a UK BREXIT… take your pick.\r\n\r\nMario Draghi (ECB, President) has gone as far as he can, the markets have basically told him to feck off. He has NO bullets, NO bazookas left.\r\n\r\n27 countries in the EUROZONE need to implement major structural reforms to improve and bring back growth to the stagnating economies. As I wrote before, there is more chance of GREECE winning the space race to Mars.\r\n\r\nWhat happens should a BREXIT vote prevail in the UK? I am of the opinion that many of the EUROZONE populist parties are ready, waiting and watching ready to capitalize, such as: -\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>GERMANY:                 Alternative for Germany</li>\r\n 	<li>FRANCE:                     National Front</li>\r\n 	<li>ITALY:                          Five Stars</li>\r\n 	<li>SPAIN:                         Podermos</li>\r\n 	<li>NETHERLANDS:      Party for Freedom</li>\r\n 	<li>AUSTRIA:                   Austrian Freedom Party</li>\r\n 	<li>FINLAND:                  Finns Party</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nOn Friday last week I noticed a great quote from Jeroen Dijsselbloem, leader of the EUROZONE Finance Ministers, it said “FX intervention to improve competitive unwise”. Holy Mother of God what rock has he been hiding under.\r\n\r\nEUROZONE IMPLOSION / CONTAGION EFFECT = uncertainty.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nJAPAN FAILS:\r\n\r\nFrom the country that has the largest QE and QQE program ever, we still have problems. Reputations are on the line, Abe (Prime Minister) and Kuroda (BOJ); are for want of a better phrase looking down the barrel of a shotgun.\r\n\r\nWe are now a couple of years or so into Abe’s policy initiatives to bring Japan out of recession, stimulate growth and provide a stabilizing effect with the YEN for businesses moving forward. Initially it worked, the YEN was weakened and businesses could export cheaper as the weaker YEN created greater competitiveness. Of late this has faltered and like most economies Japan is fragile.\r\n\r\nThe debate is on regarding whether the YEN is a flight to safety currency moving forward, that aside there is NOT an infinitum amount of time for Abe. The last time Kuroda came to the markets he disappointed big time. It has taken a lot of jawboning to strengthen the YEN.\r\n\r\nJAPAN FAILURE = uncertainty.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>DONALD TRUMP – THE U.S. PRESIDENTIAL CIRCUS</li>\r\n 	<li>HOUSING BUBBLES</li>\r\n 	<li>BREXIT and UK FRAGILITY</li>\r\n 	<li>EUROZONE IMPLOSION / CONTAGION EFFECT</li>\r\n 	<li>JAPAN FAILURE</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nWe have an inter-connected world and the domino effect is real and threatening when you have as I see it so many precipice issues.\r\n\r\nIt’s all about confidence.\r\n\r\nAt the end of the day FEAR and GREED will rule as they always do.\r\n\r\nMost central banks have nothing to add should we hit a recession, which is my fear; my nightmare scenario. The kitchen sink and all fittings plus the all bathroom items and fittings have been thrown at markets to solidify and stimulate. Only the extreme unconventional measures are left, such as negative interest rates and literally the buying of stocks, as many central banks have no more bonds or fixed assets left to purchase.\r\n\r\nFrom a trading perspective there would be massive volatility, with huge worldwide implications… will my nightmare become a reality or partial reality?\r\n\r\nWill one domino fall taking the rest with it?\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n 	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBER EXCLUSIVE AREA:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>THE PREMIUM SERVICE – TRADING REVIEW:</strong>\r\n\r\nTRADING REVIEW:\r\n\r\nA great week of trading with just under 1,000 net pips added. Year to Date we now stand at over 5,500 pips. When you consider that at the end of February we were below zero, I am very happy with the turnaround.\r\n\r\nI slowed down after the FOMC minutes to let the markets consolidate. I have several fresh trades for this week based off some nice retraces last Thursday / Friday.\r\n\r\nThe “G” trades are now well off, what I would call potential entry levels. I will take a longer look at these probably after Monday’s close and re-evaluate.\r\n\r\nFrom a macro level the profit/loss ratio is good, trading with wider stops and smaller position sizes gives us greater flexibility and for the foreseeable future I see no reason to change away from this. Trading is all about the longer term and NOT high volume scalping trades, which are more risky in my opinion given the short term trading horizons.\r\n\r\nI have to get back into CHF trades sooner rather than later.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nSUBSCRIPTIONS:\r\n\r\nPricing options are now in CAD$.\r\n\r\nSILVER membership has been removed; being honest, I know a few of you have traded up, but all SILVER memberships really attracted were gamblers, who were time consuming, just looking for multiple trades per day.\r\n\r\nFrankly I want traders with me who are interested in the long-term, with steady income requirements that can supplement existing household income by being a part-time trader or those looking to develop a full-time income but being based upon longer-term horizons.\r\n\r\nThose of you who sign up, or have signed up for annual subscriptions have been raised to PLATINUM SUBSCRIBERS (the highest level of subscription). The initial benefit of this is that annual subscribers who renew for a further 12 months will receive a discount from the published price option. Currently it is CAD$1,250.00 to initially subscribe for 12 months with renewals for an annual PLATINUM subscriber at CAD$1,000.00.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>CHARTS THAT ARE ATTRACTING MY INTEREST:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDSEK-DAILY-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7936\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDSEK-DAILY-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"USDSEK DAILY 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/NZDCHF-D-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7935\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/NZDCHF-D-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"NZDCHF D 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/GBPCHF-DAILY-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7934\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/GBPCHF-DAILY-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"GBPCHF DAILY 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/EURGBP-D-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7933\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/EURGBP-D-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"EURGBP D 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/EURCHF-D-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7932\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/EURCHF-D-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"EURCHF D 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>TRADES REVIEW:</strong>\r\n\r\nThe excel spreadsheets below details current LIVE and pending LIMIT ORDER trades: -\r\n\r\n<strong><a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/LIVE-TRADES-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7917\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/LIVE-TRADES-21052016.png\" alt=\"LIVE TRADES 21052016\" width=\"796\" height=\"590\" /></a> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/LIMIT-ORDERS-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-7916\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/LIMIT-ORDERS-21052016.png\" alt=\"LIMIT ORDERS 21052016\" width=\"671\" height=\"457\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n 	<li><strong> COMING UP THIS WEEK:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<u>THIS WEEK’S FOREX NEWS THAT INTERESTS ME:</u>\r\n\r\n(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market other than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to <a href=\"http://www.forexfactory.com\">www.forexfactory.com</a> and <a href=\"http://www.tradingeconomics.com\">www.tradingeconomics.com</a> for a more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).\r\n\r\nSUNDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: CAD – BOC Rate Statement.\r\nWEDNESDAY: NZD – Annual Budget Release.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: N/A.\r\n<u>THE USD MAJORS – MY THOUGHTS (A REVIEW): </u>\r\n\r\n(In this section I have as usual kept my charts as minimalist as possible. With regards to charting in my opinion less is more!! I hope that they are clear. All readers regardless of level of experience should be able to follow my thoughts from my comments to the levels on the charts with ease)\r\n\r\nMy comments are contained on the charts.\r\n\r\nEUR/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.1221\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/EURUSD-D-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7926\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/EURUSD-D-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"EURUSD D 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nGBP/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.4497\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/GBPUSD-D-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7927\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/GBPUSD-D-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"GBPUSD D 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nAUD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.7222\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/AUDUSD-D-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7925\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/AUDUSD-D-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"AUDUSD D 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nNZD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.6762\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/NZDUSD-D-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7928\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/NZDUSD-D-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"NZDUSD D 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.3113\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDCAD-D-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7929\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDCAD-D-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"USDCAD D 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF - Weekly Closing Price: 0.9900\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDCHF-DAILY-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7937\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDCHF-DAILY-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"USDCHF DAILY 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a>\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY - Weekly Closing Price: 110.11\r\n\r\n<u><a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDJPY-D-21052016.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-7931\" src=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/USDJPY-D-21052016-1024x481.png\" alt=\"USDJPY D 21052016\" width=\"1024\" height=\"481\" /></a></u>\r\n\r\n<u> </u>\r\n\r\n<u>MY CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>\r\n\r\nThe FOMC drove the markets last week and the USD strengthened further on the back of a HAWKISH April meeting minutes. After, the data release we have seen to a large extent consolidation moves, which are completely normal. It is now this coming week when I will be entering back into the market once again, albeit slow and steady given all the warnings that I see that I have written about in this week’s blog.\r\n\r\nWe are light on news that interests me this week.\r\n\r\nBe prepared the BOC could cut. The wild fires around Fort McMurray will be a huge burden on the Canadian economy and I think that for once Stephen Poloz (BOC, Governor) may want to be ahead of the curve. It may not happen but be ready just in case.\r\n\r\nI think that the oil price has peaked, so should the BOC cut and the oil price falls the USD/CAD could be back at 1.3600 very quickly.\r\n\r\nAs usual…\r\n\r\nAlways remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.\r\n\r\nTake care,\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>\r\n<h6>DATE: 21st May 2016\r\nBLOG REFERENCE: #103 PREMIUM SERVICE VERSION</h6>\r\n&nbsp;','THE NIGHTMARE SCENARIO','','inherit','closed','closed','','7939-revision-v1','','','2016-05-21 13:35:35','2016-05-21 18:35:35','',7939,'http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/7939-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(3090,16,'2014-01-20 15:17:43','2014-01-20 20:17:43','11.01.2014\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">1. INTRODUCTION:</span></b>\r\n\r\nIt was a very quiet first week back for the Fx markets. I thought as the market liquidity levels rose that we would have seen a very volatile opening week of trading. In addition, when you look at the major news events last week, it seemed an “odds on” bet for me. In the end I thought it to be a very tame week.\r\n\r\nFOMC minutes, ADP Non Farm, Interest rate decisions passed off quietly, Draghi said nothing new, the ECB press conference pretty lame, big misses on the U.S. and Canadian Jobs but not really a full follow through…a little boring for me.\r\n\r\nI have been working on the new PREMIUM SERVICE, which I am looking to launch very soon. As soon as I am able to give a launch date I will post a blog, which will deliver direct to WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU subscribers an introduction email with details of how to subscribe etc.\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">2. RADAR AND FLASH TRADES TRADING SUMMARY:</span></b>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">JANUARY 2014 and YEAR to date:</span></b></p>\r\nThis will be a section in the new PREMIUM SERVICE when launched where I will review good and bad trades. At that time it will no longer be a part of the WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU. To take advantage of the trade set-ups you will need to be a PREMIUM SERVICE subscriber.\r\n\r\nI have included below, two excel spreadsheets for both types of trading styles that I refer to when I am “tweeting”, using Google+ or any other social network.\r\n\r\nRADAR TRADES: These are pre-meditated limit order trades. I hope that these will be longer-term trades.\r\n\r\nFLASH TRADES: These are more of an intra-day trade. They may develop into “Swing style” trades but will probably be more short term.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/RADARTRADES14012014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-2475\" alt=\"RADAR TRADES 14.01.2014\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/RADARTRADES14012014.png\" width=\"536\" height=\"478\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">PROFITS FROM SINGLE LOT COMPLETED RADAR TRADES:</span></b></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"> 1 x MICRO-LOT\r\n3 trades at $0.10 cents each = $0.30 cents risk for a $13.90 reward.\r\n<span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">1 x MINI-LOT:\r\n</span><span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">3 trades at $1.00 each = $3.00 risk for a $139.00 reward.\r\n</span><span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">1 x STANDARD LOT:\r\n</span><span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">3 trades at $10.00 each = $30.00 risk for a $1,390.00 reward.</span></p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/FLASHTRADES14012014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-2474\" alt=\"FLASH TRADES 14.01.2014\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/FLASHTRADES14012014.png\" width=\"467\" height=\"479\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">PROFITS FROM SINGLE LOT COMPLETED FLASH TRADES:</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x MICRO-LOT:\r\n4 trades at $0.10 cents each = $0.40 cents risk for an $8.50 reward.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x MINI-LOT:\r\n4 trades at $1.00 each = $4.00 risk for $85.00 reward</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">1 x STANDARD LOT:\r\n4 trades at $10.00 each = $40.00 risk for a $850.00 reward</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">COMBINED FLASH AND RADAR TRADES PROFIT PERFORMANCE</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">JANUARY 2014…SO FAR:</span></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">TRADING MICRO-LOTS:\r\n7 trades at $0.10 cents each = $0.70 risk for a $22.40 reward.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">TRADING MINI-LOTS:\r\n7 trades at $1.00 each = $7.00 risk for a $224.00 reward.</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\">TRADING STANDARD LOTS:\r\n7 trades at $10.00 each = $70.00 risk for a $2,240.00 reward.</p>\r\nIt is a great start to a new year of trading, albeit quite slow. As I have said many times before… It is no big secret…. It’s all about discipline. I am NOT chasing trades, far from it, it took three/four attempts at pullbacks for GBP/AUD, AUD/USD and GBP/USD to trigger (these trades are still active).\r\n\r\nMy approach is all about discipline. The market will always be there and as long as there is a market there will be opportunities.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Look my trading style - it’s simple: -</p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong>FUNDAMENTALS MATTER TO ME</strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong>I TRADE TO MAKE MONEY…NOT TO PICK TOPS OR BOTTOMS</strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong>I TRADE LOW RISK</strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong>I DO NOT CHASE MARKETS</strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong>I LIKE THE TRADES TO COME TO ME</strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong>I AM NOT A GREEDY TRADER</strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong>I LIKE TO TRADE MOMENTUMS IN THE DIRECTION OF TRENDS</strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong>I USE FIBONACCI LEVELS TO ENTER &amp; EXIT ON MANY TRADES</strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong>PLUS</strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong>MY TRADING STYLE IS MIXED EVEN WITH THE ABOVE KEY BASICS</strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong>I USE THE PULLBACK STRATEGY TO ENTER AND I LIKE SWING AND LONGER-TERM TRADES (WHEN POSSIBLE)</strong></p>\r\nDetails of my new PREMIUM SERVICE that gives you the option to follow the FLASH and RADAR TRADES, amongst other things, follows later in this blog.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">3. THE VIEW FROM MY TRADING DESK:</span></b>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>CORRELATIONS ARE OFF…MIXED MESSAGES ON DATA…2014 WELCOMES ALL FX TRADERS!!!</b><b> </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>WE HAVE TO BE ADAPTIVE AND DISCIPLINED TRADERS AT ALL TIMES</b></p>\r\nLast week in my blog with my predictions for 2014, I mentioned the fact that I strongly suspected that correlations and inter-market relationships may not run as true as in previous years.\r\n\r\nI wrote the following in last week’s blog: -\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><b><i>“I see this disconnect continuing, hence my forward thinking into 2014 shows disconnects between the majors. My thoughts are that there will be more extended periods when currencies will act independently this year. Correlations will come and go.</i></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><i>Typical examples of “the disconnect” are the following correlations: -</i></b><b><i> </i></b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><i>USD / Gold\r\n</i></b><b><i>AUD / NZD\r\n</i></b><b><i>Commodity currencies / equities\r\n</i></b><b><i>EUR / GBP\r\n</i></b><b><i>CAD / USD\r\n</i></b><b><i>JPY / S&amp;P\r\n</i></b><b><i>AUD &amp; NZD / Copper\r\n</i></b><b><i>EUR / CHF\r\n</i></b><b><i>EUR/GBP / GBP/CHF\r\n</i></b><b><i>JPY &amp; CHF / Gold”</i></b></p>\r\n It can be easy to be assumptive and influenced as a trader. I may influence by writing this blog. As a trader, one of the hardest aspects of trading to master and be consistent in doing so is being able to remove all the noise around you and trade your own plan.\r\n\r\nPrior to the Non Farm Payroll release if you were influenced (and it is not hard to be), by all the experts and pundits on TV and written articles you would have been totally 100% set up on the wrong side of the trade.\r\n\r\nIn my blog last week I missed two news events that have been very well linked of late; ADP Non-Farm figures and the U.S. Government Non-Farm Payroll statistics.\r\n\r\nThese have been very correlated of late, so much so, that analysis’s expectations were raised for “Non-Farm’ on Friday on the back of excellent “ADP Employment data” figures released last Wednesday. Expectations of 190,000 additional people working were whispered to be around 225,000 following good ADP numbers last Wednesday. The actual release was a mere 74,000 additional people working. That is what is referred to as a miss.\r\n\r\nMy main reason for revisiting a similar theme to last week’s blog is to re-emphasize the fact that I think that in this year to be a successful Fx trader you will need to adapt to perhaps some very new disciplines.\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li>Ignore the “noise” around you. By noise, I mean a lot of the pointless financial chatter on Bloomberg or CNBC. This can also include bloggers like myself. You have to be your own trader. Take council, and do your research, but the buck stops with you.</li>\r\n	<li>Note: The experts on TV are just selling their book and taking guesses at economic data. You and I can take just as good a guess as they can a lot of the time.</li>\r\n	<li>Fundamentals do matter. Fundamentals in my opinion should be directly linked to the type of trader you aspire to be. e.g. Scalpers need not worry too much about fundamentals. Longer-term traders definitely need to consider the fundamentals.</li>\r\n	<li>Be flexible as a trader. More than ever this is a critical success factor. Do not pigeon hole yourself as “ Swing”, “Scalper”, “Long-Term”, “Fundamental” or a “Technical” trader. I firmly believe that in 2014 you will require a little bit of everything in order to keep your head above water.</li>\r\n	<li>Finally, take nothing for granted. If in doubt exit trades and bank profits. Do not let losing trades run away from you.</li>\r\n	<li>I nearly always close my blogs with words like these…Trade smaller position sizes, with wider stops and work your Trading Plan using proper Money Management.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIt’s all boring but essential stuff that we have all heard before many times. If I am correct and this is the “dis-connect” year we will all need a 100% disciplined approach to trading.\r\n\r\nIt is far too easy to be suckered into trades in the forex market. It is a totally unforgiving trading environment. Be disciplined at all times.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">4. MY CURRENT LIVE TRADES:</span></b>\r\n\r\nFLASH TRADES: No live FLASH TRADES at this time.\r\n\r\nRADAR TRADES: The following trades are live. They all emanated from last weeks MIDWEEK FX FIX trade set-ups.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong> RT01\r\n</strong><strong style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">PAIR: USD/CHF\r\n</strong><strong style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">LONG /SHORT: LONG\r\n</strong><strong style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">ENTRY / COST AVERAGE: 0.9030\r\n</strong><strong style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">TRADE SIZE: 20%\r\n</strong><strong style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">STOP LOSS: 0.8940\r\n</strong><strong style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">TARGET / LIMIT: 0.9450\r\n</strong><strong style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">WEEKLY CLOSING PRICE: 0.9021\r\n</strong><strong style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">PRESENT POSITION: -9 pips</strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong>RT02</strong>\r\n<strong>PAIR: AUD/USD</strong>\r\n<strong>LONG/ SHORT: SHORT</strong>\r\n<strong>ENTRY / COST AVERAGE: 0.9000</strong>\r\n<strong>TRADE SIZE: 20%</strong>\r\n<strong>STOP LOSS: 0.9050</strong>\r\n<strong>TARGET / LIMIT: 0.8500</strong>\r\n<strong>WEEKLY CLOSING PRICE: 0.8994</strong>\r\n<strong>PRESENT POSITION: +6 pips</strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong> RT05</strong>\r\n<strong>PAIR: GBP/AUD</strong>\r\n<strong>LONG /SHORT: LONG</strong>\r\n<strong>ENTRY / COST AVERAGE: 1.8350</strong>\r\n<strong>TRADE SIZE: 10%</strong>\r\n<strong>STOP LOSS: 1.8250</strong>\r\n<strong>TARGET / LIMIT: 1.9670</strong>\r\n<strong>WEEKLY CLOSING PRICE: 1.8314</strong>\r\n<strong>PRESENT POSITION: -36 pips</strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong> RT11\r\nPAIR: GBP/USD\r\nLONG /SHORT: SHORT\r\nENTRY / COST AVERAGE: 1.6500\r\nTRADE SIZE: 20%\r\nSTOP LOSS: 1.6550\r\nTARGET / LIMIT: 1.6200\r\nWEEKLY CLOSING PRICE: 1.6478\r\nPRESENT POSITION: +22 pips</strong></p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">5. TRADES THAT ARE ON MY RADAR:</span></b>\r\n\r\nBelow is the current list of RADAR TRADES that have yet to trigger from the last blog. Plus there are some additional trade set-ups that interest me.\r\n\r\nYou will notice that on all the CAD pairs that entry levels have been amended.\r\n<p align=\"center\"><strong>RT03:</strong>\r\n<strong>Currency Pair: NZD/USD</strong>\r\n<strong>Long/Short: Short</strong>\r\n<strong>Limit Order Entry Price: 0.8320</strong>\r\n<strong>My Proposed Position Size: 20%</strong>\r\n<strong>Stop Loss: 0.8370</strong>\r\n<strong>Target / Limit: 0.8240</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>RT04:</strong>\r\n<strong>Currency Pair: USD/CAD</strong>\r\n<strong>Long/Short: Long</strong>\r\n<strong>Limit Order Entry Price: 1.0800</strong>\r\n<strong>My Proposed Position Size: 20%</strong>\r\n<strong>Stop Loss: 1.0725</strong>\r\n<strong>Target / Limit: 1.1230</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>RT06:</strong>\r\n<strong>Currency Pair: EUR/CAD</strong>\r\n<strong>Long/Short: Long</strong>\r\n<strong>Limit Order Entry Price: 1.4800</strong>\r\n<strong>My Proposed Position Size: 20%</strong>\r\n<strong>Stop Loss: 1.4700</strong>\r\n<strong>Target / Limit: 1.6320</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>RT07:</strong>\r\n<strong>Currency Pair: GBP/CAD</strong>\r\n<strong>Long/Short: Long</strong>\r\n<strong>Limit Order Entry Price: 1.7840</strong>\r\n<strong>My Proposed Position Size: 20%</strong>\r\n<strong>Stop Loss: 1.7750</strong>\r\n<strong>Target / Limit: 1.9200</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>RT10:</strong>\r\n<strong>Currency Pair: EUR/GBP</strong>\r\n<strong>Long/Short: Short</strong>\r\n<strong>Limit Order Entry Price: 0.8320</strong>\r\n<strong>My Proposed Position Size: 20%</strong>\r\n<strong>Stop Loss: 0.8400</strong>\r\n<strong>Target / Limit: 0.8160</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>RT13:</strong>\r\n<strong>Currency Pair: EUR/NZD</strong>\r\n<strong>Long/Short: Long</strong>\r\n<strong>Limit Order Entry Price: 1.6420</strong>\r\n<strong>My Proposed Position Size: 10%</strong>\r\n<strong>Stop Loss: 1.6350</strong>\r\n<strong>Target / Limit: 1.7500</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>RT14:</strong>\r\n<strong>Currency Pair: GBP/NZD</strong>\r\n<strong>Long/Short: Long</strong>\r\n<strong>Limit Order Entry Price: 1.9780</strong>\r\n<strong>My Proposed Position Size: 10%</strong>\r\n<strong>Stop Loss: 1.9650</strong>\r\n<strong>Target / Limit: 2.0100</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>RT15:</strong>\r\n<strong>Currency Pair: EUR/AUD</strong>\r\n<strong>Long/Short: Long</strong>\r\n<strong>Limit Order Entry Price: 1.5100</strong>\r\n<strong>My Proposed Position Size: 10%</strong>\r\n<strong>Stop Loss: 1.4980</strong>\r\n<strong>Target / Limit: 1.5600</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>RT16:</strong>\r\n<strong>Currency Pair: AUD/NZD</strong>\r\n<strong>Long/Short: Long</strong>\r\n<strong>Limit Order Entry Price: 1.0790</strong>\r\n<strong>My Proposed Position Size: 20%</strong>\r\n<strong>Stop Loss: 1.0685</strong>\r\n<strong>Target / Limit: 1.1050</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>RT17:</strong>\r\n<strong>Currency Pair: AUD/CHF</strong>\r\n<strong>Long/Short: Long</strong>\r\n<strong>Limit Order Entry Price: 0.8050</strong>\r\n<strong>My Proposed Position Size: 10%</strong>\r\n<strong>Stop Loss: 0.7985</strong>\r\n<strong>Target / Limit: 0.8270</strong></p>\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">NOTE</span></b>: I will not be able to add limit orders and revise existing limit orders until the market opens tomorrow night (Sunday)\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">6. LOOKING FORWARD…THE KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS:</span></b>\r\n\r\n<b>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.3667.</b>  This pair rejected 1.3700 resistance after Non Farm yesterday. I think that if we break higher through 1.3770 next week everything changes. Support is good at 1.3600 and 1.3550 below that I would personally trade the range 1.3550 to 1.3725.\r\n\r\n<b>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.6478. </b>The 1.6500 resistance held pretty well. A huge amount depends upon what happens with the EUR/USD and USD/JPY as to how this pair will play out next week. The UK has Retail Sales data late in the week but we have CPi numbers in Tuesday. Recent data from the UK has been very mixed to say the least. It is well known that BOE Governor Carney does not want the GBP to strengthen too far, but there is nothing planned for his intervention to send the currency towards 1.6000. 1.6400 is good support and I would consider a break above 1.6540 could set us up for a bigger move towards 1.7000\r\n\r\n<b>AUD/USD: Closing Price 0.8994</b>.  Although I am short, this pair looks like it could snap higher. A break above 0.9060 I think would be a sentiment change and support is good at 0.8900. The one thing to bear in mind with this pair is the desire by the RBA to have the AUD currency much lower towards 0.8500. Do not fight the RBA.\r\n\r\n<b>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8298</b>.  The resistance level of 0.8300 has held very well. If the AUD breaks higher it is just a question of how long would it take for the Kiwi to follow. I have a RADAR TRADE short limit entry at 0.8320. Personally, I believe the range to play for the time being is 0.8200 to 0.8300. I am looking for a stop run over 0.8300 to have my entry triggered. That did not happen after Non Farm, which would have been the ideal time given the AUD/USD move after Non Farm. We sit on 0.8300 resistance. If we break above 0.8350 I will start to get twitchy.\r\n\r\n<b>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.0885.  </b>I am so annoyed with myself for missing this break out trade. All my attempts to get an entry I am happy with have failed. I even scalped this pair after Non Farm and exited with small profits because I was not happy with the entry level for a longer-term trade. The trading range at the moment is 1.0800 to 1.0950. I have a buy order at 1.0800. I may still not get the pullback I want!\r\n\r\n<b>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.9021</b>.  This pair is in break out mode and I patiently waited for my entry after Non Farm. Support is good at 0.8950 and above 0.9125 we should be motoring much higher.\r\n\r\n<b>USD/JPY: Closing Price 104.15. </b> Every prediction on my chart analysis on this pair I screw up. Ultimately I do think that this pair is going much, much higher. I just think that there will be a pullback first, but I am not too sure how strong a pullback it’s going to be. In April this year the Abe led Government will implement tax changes to hopefully spur inflation towards the 2% target. I want to be long before then. I think we will possibly re-test 103.50 on the short side. Is this the level to get long and stick with it? I am not sure yet.\r\n\r\nMy range for this pair at the moment is 103.50 to 104.60.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">7. MAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:</span></b>\r\n\r\nSUNDAY: N/A\r\n\r\nMONDAY: GBP – CPi.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: USD – Retail and Core Retail Sales.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: AUD – Unemployment Numbers and % rates.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: N/A\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: GBP – Retail Sales.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">8. THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</span></b>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU</span></b><b>\r\n<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">PREMIUM SERVICE  2014 </span></b>\r\n\r\nI am still working with my software developer to have this addition to the WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU ready within the next two weeks. My intention is to launch the PREMIUM SERVICE subscription service as soon as the markets revert back to normal liquidity.\r\n\r\nWe have noticed however that a number of people have tried to register already. For anyone who has tried to register their details were deleted by the system under beta testing and even if you believe that you have an existing login or username that is not the case. As soon as I write announcing that the PREMIUM SERVICE is ready, sorry, but you will have to register again.\r\n\r\nFor those new readers below I detail the salient points regarding the premium service: -\r\n\r\nAs soon as the PREMIUM SERVICE is launched THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE-THRU in its current format will change. It will remain a weekly blog post although it will be more concise in length.\r\n\r\nMy “RADAR and FLASH TRADES” will now only be available via the Premium Service. In addition, “TRADE IDEAS &amp; SET UPS” that are tweeted will now only be available to Premium Service subscribers by email and in addition they can be viewed inside the secure section of my website.\r\n\r\nExamples of the RADAR and FLASH TRADES excel spreadsheets are in this blog at Section 2.\r\n\r\nIn 2013, feedback from subscribers to the “Drive-Thru”, or from readers of the blog via Google+, LinkedIn or Twitter have been raising many questions about Forex Trading in general, such as: -\r\n\r\n</p><p align=\"center\"><b>Placing Stops</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Strategies on entry and exit</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Working with a Trade Plan</b> / <b>What is a Trade Plan?</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Risk Assessment</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>When to fade trades</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>How to cost average effectively</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>How to use Trade Zones effectively - Buy Zones and Sell zones</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Working with Fibonacci levels</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>How to find a good broker to partner with</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>Chart analysis</b></p>\r\nInside the secure area of my website, you will be able to reference information on all of the above topics plus much more. The library of information will grow during 2014 and my goal is to provide a comprehensive support area to traders of all experience levels. The PREMIUM SERVICE in its secure area will be a learning and reference area to subscribers.\r\n\r\nI am also looking to offer training and information based “Webinars” to Premium Service subscription members, if I have sufficient participants. These will be fee based to cover costs.\r\n\r\nWhilst upon first look, it may appear that the Premium Service is directed solely at new traders, or those with intermediate skill levels, please note this is not my intention. Trading can be lonely, and sometimes it is good to feel that you are part of a team. With this in mind, I am thinking that a “Chat Room” style area would be of benefit to all traders to share ideas and trade set-ups. Plus, whether a new trader or experienced trader it is always good to have a library of information available close at hand.\r\n\r\nWhat are the costs of membership?\r\n\r\nThere will be 40 weekly blogs / issues per year (I will not write in the Summer and over Christmas periods), with an unlimited amount of follow ups during the week to review and act upon “RADAR and FLASH trades” and issues emanating from previous blogs. In addition trade ideas for trades already in play would also be part of the service, as I will be trading the posted set-ups.\r\n\r\nI do not want to become a finance administrator on a daily basis so I want to keep the subscription options as few as possible.\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>ANNUAL (40 WEEK) SUBSCRIPTION: $750.00 (this equates to $18.75 per week) </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>20 WEEKS SUBSCRIPTION: $450.00 (this equates to $22.50 per week) </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>10 WEEKS SUBSCRIPTION: $250.00 (this equates to $25.00 per week) </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"center\"><b>(ALL FEES ARE IN USD)</b></p>\r\nShould you have any questions regarding the PREMIUM SERVICE please email me at premiumservice@thepipaccumulator.com<b></b>\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"> </span></b>\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">9. FINAL THOUGHTS:</span></b>\r\n\r\nA little quieter this week on the news front in particular. However, following Non Farm Payrolls there is usually a bit of follow through to work with and react to.\r\n\r\nWe should see liquidity come back to the market even more this week and currency moves should be more sustainable and pretty much back to normal…whatever that means!!\r\n\r\nI will be posting RADAR and FLASH trade set ups via twitter as the week progresses and they will be performance measured via spreadsheets in next week blog.\r\n\r\nGood luck and trade within your TRADE PLAN guidelines and most importantly use MONEY MANAGEMENT SKILLS to control your risks.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nSaturday January 11<sup>th</sup> 2014\r\n\r\nEMAIL / FOLLOW ME AT:\r\n<a href=\"mailto:drivethru@thepipaccumulator.com\">drivethru@thepipaccumulator.com\r\n</a>Twitter: @pipaccumulator\r\n<span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">Google+/scottpickering\r\n</span><span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">StockTwits; thepipaccumulator</span>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;','CORRELATIONS ARE OFF…MIXED MESSAGES ON DATA…2014 WELCOMES ALL FX TRADERS!!!','','inherit','open','closed','','2913-revision-v1','','','2014-01-20 15:17:43','2014-01-20 20:17:43','',2913,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/2913-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0);
