(6510,1,'2015-09-26 16:53:28','2015-09-26 21:53:28','<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>THE PREMIUM SERVICE</strong>\r\n<strong>from the</strong>\r\n<strong>WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU</strong>\r\n<strong>“The Home of Single Lot Trading”</strong></p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li><strong> THE VIEW FROM MY TRADE DESK:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nLOOKING BACKWARDS, FORWARDS &amp; SIDEWAYS (FOR GOOD MEASURE) AT THE FX MARKET:\r\n\r\n1.1: LOOKING BACKWARDS:\r\n\r\nFollowing the FOMC hold on September 17<sup>th</sup>, last week was the time that I felt it important to concentrate on the speeches given by central bank presidents / governors. We had Poloz (BOC), Draghi (ECB) and further comments from Janet Yellen.\r\n\r\nPoloz, I feel is totally detached from reality at times. In Canada we are a month away from a general election and I feel he is just a pawn right now trying to keep things together. The Canadian economy is in the sh*t. There is low confidence and great uncertainty about what party will be triumphant at the election in under a month. There will be a rate cut happening very soon in an attempt to kick start matters, and I would say sooner rather than later. Canada is NOT the USA. It borders the USA but that is about it. The USA is not yet a commodity currency but the Canadian is. There is a wealth of commodities over and above oil in Canada. Oil may be dominant and trendy in the headlines right now and having a great effect on the “loonie”, which, we should not lose sight of.\r\n\r\nThe fact is oil has a massive supply and demand issue, which is not going away and as a result of this the price of oil will be under constant scrutiny and downward pressures. This creates doom and gloom on the TV news and lowers consumer confidence in the economy.\r\n\r\nIf there was no election, I feel that Poloz would have cut last time around. The cut is coming in my opinion at either the next meeting due on the 21<sup>st</sup> October, two days after the election on the 19<sup>th</sup> October, or the one following just in time to boost Christmas spending in the malls / stores and shops.\r\n\r\nBack to his speech…. If you could imagine touching the wettest fish, from the darkest deepest parts of the ocean, you are coming close. It was a non-committal boring non-event. Looking at the BOC web site he has a few opportunities prior to the BOC rate announcement to inspire and motivate us…. lets see.\r\n\r\nDraghi spoke to the European Parliament; the word on the street was that he would be very dovish about extensions to quantitative easing (QE); the reality was completely different. He was very matter of fact and basically kept matters low key, nothing new.\r\n\r\nThen we had an eventful Janet Yellen speech in Boston, from which, she had dehydration issues and it looked like she stopped her speech early. Thankfully, from a health perspective she was able to keep to her business schedule. From a market perspective this time she was hawkish.\r\n\r\nI am getting a little confused with the FED at the moment. Yellen appears to use dialogue that has the markets confused. I think that she is relatively consistent but the markets require everything on a platter. I think she has to imagine that she was talking to a four-year old child so that it is easy for the likes of Wall Street to understand.\r\n\r\nHer dialogue is not being understood. Maybe, if the key sentences were tattooed on a stripper’s chest or bottom, the key words and phrases would be read, because right now I feel Wall Street does not listen or maybe quite possibly just doesn’t understand.\r\n\r\nI am still confused why 12 out of the 14 voting members are in favour of an interest rate increase before the end of 2015, could be treated as dovish. I know it’s all about the headlines in her speeches and how the media strikes the balance. Maybe as I said, if the key messages were delivered via a stripper’s bottom or chest, people might take more notice and these messages might be read more closely and perhaps even understood.\r\n\r\nI know the key deliverables in the speeches are the headlines but all the clues are there. I do think that Janet Yellen has a part to play here. It is a game with the media because all the media wants is news and if they cannot get news on facts who cares, they will create news based upon a loosely collated bundle of snippets and off the story goes factual or not.\r\n\r\nI am not advocating that Janet Yellen walks chair to chair lap dancing with the key deliverable’s tattooed to parts of her body…Holy Mother of God there’s a picture to ruin your Sunday Lunch, in fact, any meal time…my God it could sour milk. What I am saying is maybe she should do a Monty Python style arm gesture when something important is about to be said that the media should take note of. From my perspective it will certainly get more interest and its better than counting how many fecking times she says the word transitory.\r\n\r\nGetting back on track….\r\n\r\nShe was hawkish in Boston but I think all the hawkish stuff has been there for months, the media has just not found it sexy enough to focus on. They have rather glibly clung to the question of when are rates increasing, rather than concentrating on what the effects are going to be when they go up. I know, my focus on debating the effects may not sell many commercials on TV (unless my stripper idea caught on of course) but the FED is giving away all the clues via all the economic papers it releases. We are being fed headlines, which the media believes to be sexy news. We as traders need to look behind these.\r\n\r\nApart from the “bank heads” talk, nothing else really took my attention in the past week.\r\n\r\nBiggest non-news event of the week: -\r\n\r\nTHE GREEK ELECTION – Tsipras and his party have about 60 days to pass 80% of the conditions of the latest bailout through parliament. The creditors front ran all the deadline dates because they do not trust GREECE.\r\n\r\nWatch this space the “Greek Bailout Act IV” coming soon….\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n1.2: LOOKING FORWARDS:\r\n\r\nMAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:\r\n\r\n(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market other than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to <a href=\"http://www.forexfactory.com\">www.forexfactory.com</a> and <a href=\"http://www.tradingeconomics.com\">www.tradingeconomics.com</a> for a more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).\r\nSUNDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: USD – Consumer Confidence.\r\nTUESDAY: NZD – ANZ Business Confidence.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – ADP Non-Farm Employment Change.\r\nWEDNESDAY: CAD – GDP.\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – Janet Yellen (FED) speaks… make sure she has water!\r\nWEDNESDAY: CNY – PMi data.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: AUD – Retail Sales.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: USD – Non-Farm Payrolls.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMY THOUGHTS ON THE NEWS ITEMS THIS COMING WEEK:\r\n\r\nObviously, the biggie is Friday’s US jobs report and I believe that this will dominate all the media during the week. It will in all probability be based around the topic of “Will the FED hike? or won’t the FED hike?”, based on the job numbers. I am really poor at guessing what the numbers will be and what the immediate market reaction will be and frankly that is what it is, just a guess and I am not playing anymore. I hate NFP days, I have more failures than successes on NFP days and I hate them. I think this Friday will be the day to start the next blog early!!\r\n\r\nApart from NFP, consumer and business confidence numbers on Tuesday from the US and New Zealand is always worth noting and on Wednesday we have Chinese PMI data.\r\n\r\nThursday evening (for me) Australian retail sales will be a mover in spite of NFP following within 12 hours.\r\n\r\nI am writing about my FUNDAMENTAL views later in this blog and these are basically the key news events for me based upon my trading plan through to the year-end.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMY KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS THIS WEEK FOR USD MAJORS<strong>:\r\n</strong>In this section I have as usual kept my charts as minimalist as possible. All readers regardless of level of experience should be able to follow my thoughts from my comments to the levels on the charts with ease.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nEUR/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.1191\r\n\r\nWe are basically in a trading range from the lows of 1.1085 to 1.1460. If you enjoy range trading, happy days! If you are waiting for a breakout and a momentum trade, we will require a big moving news event to enable this to happen in my opinion. This Friday we have Non-Farm payrolls from the U.S., this may be the catalyst required.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURUSDDaily27092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6493\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EURUSDDaily27092015.png\" alt=\"EURUSDDaily27092015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.5170\r\n\r\nUnder pressure from all sides, the cable looked to be at the edge of a cliff last Friday. There is good support ahead at the 61.8% retracement Fibonacci level of 1.5085. After this 1.5000 will obviously provide something as a nice round psychological number, however I fear that the cable could be heading a great deal lower. I hate trading the GBP/USD as it is the master of false moves, and, as soon as you feel that you finally have a trade under control it can quickly reverse on you.\r\n\r\nGiven all the recent talk about the UK possibly raising rates, this now appears to be on the horizon for 2017 (How this can be predicted this far out, amazes me). However, never rule out the best bullsh**ing bank governor out there, “Mark Carney” who can mislead the markets and then jump into his JCB to get himself out of his self produced hole.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GBPUSDWeekly27092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6494\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GBPUSDWeekly27092015.png\" alt=\"GBPUSDWeekly27092015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.7003\r\n\r\nA nice bounce back from a near death experience is the best way to describe the Aussie at the end of last week. Lets face facts all the cards are stacked against this pair not falling towards 0.6500. Commodity prices, China, future (probable) FED monetary policy and the RBA are all doing their bit to weaken this currency. What happens should equities fall as well; in my opinion, a drop to at least 0.6500.\r\n\r\nKey support now lies at 0.6940 and a break below this level exposes a greater downside move.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/AUDUSDDaily27092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6492\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/AUDUSDDaily27092015.png\" alt=\"AUDUSDDaily27092015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.6376\r\n\r\nCross-rate do affect the USD majors. The AUD/NZD, GBP/NZD and EUR/NZD came under tremendous pressure on Friday last week, and this kept the NZD/USD elevated.\r\n\r\nThe currency will be used as toilet paper soon as it is still grossly overvalued and RBNZ still feel it is at levels that are too high.\r\n\r\nWe are presently in a trading range from the lows of 0.6240 to 0.6500 as seen on the chart below. Just above 0.6400 should act as resistance, which should see the downside move return.\r\n\r\nMy longer-term target for this pair is close to 0.5700.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/NZDUSDDaily27092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6495\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/NZDUSDDaily27092015.png\" alt=\"NZDUSDDaily27092015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.3334\r\n\r\nWe saw a false breakout move last Thursday, which saw this pair stretch the upside to 1.3418. Support is good at 1.3300 and I see this as the base now. Moving forward a break lower than 1.3300 makes me feel that the upside breakout could be delayed somewhat. This pair is still very bullish and ultimately I see a 1.4000 level being achieved, but we have to crack 1.3418 first obviously.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCADDaily27092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6496\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCADDaily27092015.png\" alt=\"USDCADDaily27092015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF - Weekly Closing Price: 0.9774\r\n\r\nThis pair is on the cusp of a major move higher, which may go with or without the EUR/USD breaking down. The SNB are in my opinion getting ready to flex those muscles once again. We have a great base now at 0.9650, the 61.8% Fibonacci level. Once this pair breaks through 0.9850 I believe it will be off to parity shortly thereafter and beyond. If the SNB is required to help move the EUR/CHF through 1.1000 this move will benefit all CHF pairs. Premium Service subscribers should note the CHF cross-rate charts later.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCHFDaily27092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6497\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDCHFDaily27092015.png\" alt=\"USDCHFDaily27092015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY - Weekly Closing Price: 120.55\r\n\r\nWe are in a wide trading range of 118.75 to 122.00. I think that this pair will be best to trade after the FED rate announcement and when we know the reaction from the equity markets following the announcement. Up until then, I think it will be much a do about nothing with daily chop moves in one direction and then the other.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDJPYDaily27092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6498\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/USDJPYDaily27092015.png\" alt=\"USDJPYDaily27092015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n1.3: LOOKING SIDEWAYS (FOR GOOD MEASURE):\r\n\r\nI had several communications this week based upon my reference to the KEY INDICATORS that I look at and wrote about last week. So for those readers I am going to elaborate this time around.\r\n\r\nMy lead indicators are: -\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>OIL</li>\r\n	<li>GOLD</li>\r\n	<li>COPPER</li>\r\n	<li>DXY index</li>\r\n	<li>S&amp;P index</li>\r\n	<li>USD/CAD</li>\r\n	<li>AUD/USD</li>\r\n	<li>AUD/JPY</li>\r\n	<li>USD/SEK</li>\r\n	<li>FX PRESSURE CHARTS</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nLead indicators for me are all about trading with an EDGE.\r\n\r\nI will try to answer as best I can the questions raised.\r\n\r\n<u>Why do I have lead indicators? </u>\r\n\r\nThis is because all the markets, precious metals, equities, commodity, bonds and Forex are all inter-linked one way or another. GOLD and OIL are priced in USD and therefore movements in GOLD and OIL will affect the USD.\r\n\r\nIf I see a bullish or bearish move in GOLD, this will have an effect on the USD. Movements in Oil will affect the oil-based economies like Canada, Mexico and Norway and therefore when WTi moves so will the CAD, MXN and NOK.\r\n\r\nMovement in Copper affects so many industries and the AUD currency moves in relation to copper movements amongst general commodity price moves. Copper imports/exports are essential to follow to see if a country is cutting back or expanding. These trends in Copper contribute to PMi and construction data.\r\n\r\nThese factors give me an EDGE.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>Do these indicators matter as much if you are a longer-term trader?</u>\r\n\r\nYes, I believe they matter all the time as all market components have trends, and, trends / momentums / Fibonacci levels matter across all markets whether it\'s a day or potential swing trade set up or even a longer term position that you are looking at.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>What role does the AUD/JPY play?</u>\r\n\r\nWhen there is zero economic data, the equity markets mainly drive the Forex market moves. Correlations do matter and they do count (PREMIUM SERVICE GOLD subscribers can find several articles under the EDUCATION tab on this subject), the AUD/JPY moves are more or less correlated to moves with the S&amp;P index. Therefore if the S&amp;P is under pressure it is more than likely that the AUD/JPY will also be under similar pressure. If they are NOT moving in sync this is a warning to further investigate. This gives me an EDGE.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>What role does the USD/SEK have to play?</u>\r\n\r\nThis Forex pair is very closely correlated to flagging USD movement whether weakness or strength. It is like the USD/CAD it tends to lead the USD, if that makes sense. More often or not if the USD has been weak, if there is USD strength trying to get back into the market the USD/SEK and USD/CAD tend to show the change in sentiment first. They are ahead of the DXY because these currencies are lightly weighted in the index, which is so heavily dominated by the EUR (over 50%). This gives me an EDGE.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>What are pressure charts?</u>\r\n\r\nThese are basically charts that instead of being based on prices, are charts based upon buying and selling. They can help with direction.\r\n\r\nWhen looking at candlesticks say for a 60-minute chart, at the end of the 60 minutes you have a candle created that is either part of a bullish or bearish formation of candles or on its own sets a tone or an indication of what the following candle should look like.\r\n\r\nFor example a “ Hammer” would indicate that for the next period the currency pair should be moving upwards.\r\n\r\nIf I am looking at pressure charts for the same 60-minute period I am seeing the relationship between buyers and sellers develop in the same way during the hour but if there are more buyers than sellers this will highlighted by the pressure charts based upon strength of the buying signals and the commitment to a particular direction. It can make me enter a trade at a better price point without waiting for the candle confirmation. This gives me an EDGE.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>Do I have these lead indicators across all my screens when trading?</u>\r\n\r\nNo, due to limits on space and the numbers of eyes I have, I cannot afford this. I am a trader. I trade almost every day. The lead indicators are my EDGE to my trading. I look at them all as I gather my thoughts for the day and I have the DXY, S&amp;P, Oil and Gold split into four on one screen, with the ability to check Copper and USD/SEK very quickly.\r\n\r\nMy other three screens are used for my currency pairs / brokers and pressure charts focused on Forex.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>What is my start-off routine each day?</u>\r\n\r\nFirst things first, let Ozzy and Aoife (my dogs) out into the back yard and get some coffee going.\r\n\r\nCheck existing OPEN trades if I have not already done so via my iPad prior to getting up. Adjust / advise PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers if required.\r\n\r\nLook at the “Holy Trinity” first… that is GOLD, OIL and COPPER. Note the highs and lows…post-it note on screen or place horizontal lines on screens as well…. depends on my mood.\r\n\r\nCheck the DXY… make a note of highs and lows, and put a Fibonacci level on a 240 or 480-minute chart on the screen.\r\n\r\nCheck the U.S. markets futures, DOW, S&amp;P and Nasdaq and look at the DAX and FTSE.\r\n\r\nMore coffee.\r\n\r\nThen look around all the currency pairs for high probability trades and advise PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers of set-ups and place trades with my brokers.\r\n\r\nIf required send out a few tweets to PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers on what my thoughts are and if they differ from that last communication.\r\n\r\nRead and answer communications from subscribers.\r\n\r\nSettle in for the next 12 hours or so behind the desk.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>Do I look at the Relative Strength Indicator (RSi)?</u>\r\n\r\nYes I do, but I do not consider it the be all and end all of making a trade. There are many instances when the RSi it behind the move. I look at it and sometimes I will pass comment on it to my subscribers when suggesting a trade. However, it is not really an indicator that I use all the time. I will use it more times to prevent me from taking a trade that is borderline with my TRADING PLAN.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nIn summary, my lead indicators may not be your lead indicators and like most things in trading it is “Whatever floats yer boat”.\r\n\r\nIf whatever you do works for you do not change. This works for me and it helps me. Having subscribers helps me focus because I do not want to suggest poor or weak trades. I have to have a good reason why I take any trade, it may not just be based upon a Fibonacci level, which can be enough on many occasions, but maybe a confirmation of an inter-market relationship or correlation as well being there to also support the trade set-up.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n	<li><strong> WHAT’S ON MY MIND:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>THE DIVERGENCE TRADE IS STILL ON</strong>\r\n<strong>and</strong>\r\n<strong>MY FUNDAMENTAL TRADING PLAN THRU TO THE</strong>\r\n<strong>YEAR END IS STILL IN PLAY</strong></p>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\nJust prior to my break from trading over the summer I wrote about my FUNDAMENTAL TRADING PLAN and how I envisaged this moving forward given that at that time the FOMC still hadn’t raised rates. In fact, at that stage in July I was very much of the opinion that that the FOMC would hike in September.\r\n\r\nAs we know the FOMC remained on hold…buggers.\r\n\r\nI have been asked by a number of subscribers, after the FOMC hold and another batch of “FED SPEAK”; if my plan is still intact?\r\n\r\nI believe that it is pretty much still there and I have been delaying and delaying getting my trades set up and in position, so that my subscribers and myself are ready to take advantage of the FED move.\r\n\r\nThe core factors to my TRADING PLAN are still intact as far as I am concerned: -\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>The FED is tightening monetary policy.</li>\r\n	<li>Other central banks with the possible exception of the BOE are on a loosening monetary policy.</li>\r\n	<li>China is slowing down.</li>\r\n	<li>Australian and New Zealand economies are under pressure.</li>\r\n	<li>Oil is moving lower. Price expectations being talked about now are even lower than those back in July.</li>\r\n	<li>Commodity prices are still under pressure.</li>\r\n	<li>The SNB is still a loose cannon and could intervene at any time to weaken the CHF back to prior “PEG REMOVAL DAY” levels.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nMy FUNDAMENTAL TRADING PLAN is based around divergence. It is based around trading this divergence.\r\n\r\nI have stated many times before in my blogs that divergence is a strong reason to trade if it stems from central bank monetary policy. My plan until at least the end of the year is based upon such a plan with FED taking the lead.\r\n\r\nIt is based around a strong USD.\r\n\r\nThis will give me trading confidence based on the divergences between central banks FED v ECB, FED v RBA, FED v RBNZ, FED v BOC, FED v BOJ etc.\r\n\r\nIt is not just trading the USD major pairs; the cross-rate pairs are also of great interest once the divergent policy is established.\r\n\r\nAll I want now is for the FED to stop dithering and raise rates so my plan can commence in full swing.\r\n\r\nI have my target levels, for my target pairs already identified. It is now just a matter of time and being patient.\r\n\r\nEven though it is expected that the FOMC will raise rates, the timing is still not in place and to start with the plan now would involve some risk ahead of the announcement of US interest rates increasing. At the same time, there are trades that jump out that will be in line with FED policy that can be established prior to a rate announcement and should not be too badly affected if a further delay is advised.\r\n\r\nOver the coming days I will decide and place my interim strategy on these trades and have them in position knowing in advance when and where I will add to the initial position sizes.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:\r\n</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n3.1: SUMMARY OF YEAR TO DATE PERFORMANCE - 2015:\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">PREMIUM SERVICE – COST INCOME ANALYSIS (USD):</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">EMANATING FROM TRADE SET-UPS – to September 26th 2015.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">MICRO LOT TRADER - 507 trades cost to trade = $50.70\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 507 trades = <strong>$803.30</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">MINI LOT TRADER - 507 trades cost to trade = $507.00\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 507 trades = <strong>$8,033.00</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">STANDARD LOT TRADER - 507 trades cost to trade = $5,070.00\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 507 trades = <strong>$80,330.00</strong></p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n3.2: PREMIUM SERVICE – TRADE SUMMARIES MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PS-PROFITS1-27092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6481\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PS-PROFITS1-27092015.png\" alt=\"PS PROFITS1 27092015\" width=\"451\" height=\"426\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PS-PROFITS2-27092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6482\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PS-PROFITS2-27092015.png\" alt=\"PS PROFITS2 27092015\" width=\"453\" height=\"411\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNOTES:\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>If the above return from Forex Trading interests you go to my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> and check out the subscription options and special promotions under the tabs “PREMIUM SERVICE” and “PROMOTIONS”</li>\r\n	<li>The performance above is based off single-lot trade sizes.</li>\r\n	<li>THE PREMIUM SERVICE has subscribers with broker accounts of sizes ranging from $2,500 to over $100,000. A profitable trade is a profitable trade. It is all about trading according to the size of your broker account (EFFECTIVE POSITION SIZING) and applying RISK MANAGEMENT principles at all times.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) SUBSCRIBER CONTENT:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(The following section is additional data, thoughts, and ideas exclusively for PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) subscribers)\r\n\r\n4.1: THE PREMIUM SERVICE – TRADING REVIEW:\r\n\r\nI sent out an email last Friday about STOPS and TRADE SYTLE DEFINITIONS; I want to elaborate on that email so that every one can understand where I am coming from.\r\n\r\n<u>STOPS:</u>\r\n\r\nWhen I place a trade, the RADAR and FUNDAMENTAL trades are placed with a tweeted confirmation, mostly with a trade chart and then that is followed as soon as I can do it, with an email confirmation.\r\n\r\nI have received a couple of queries over the moving of stops in times of high market volatility to keep trades alive. They have been followed by comments stating that this increases your exposed risk to a particular trade.\r\n\r\nWhen a trade is advised by email it states what percentage of my RISK LIMIT is being placed into the trade at the start of the trade. Below on the example of the excel sheets you receive by email, RT489 states my original RISK is limited to 20% of the maximum I will tolerate under my TRADE PLAN.\r\n\r\nThis allows me to move the stop in times of high volatility. I do not want to have to move the stop, it is not my intention when I set up the trade, but sometimes needs must. The stop, when moved is usually moved to the next Fibonacci level, should this be deemed necessary.\r\n\r\nIf you are part-time and cannot have 100% access to your computer or other device maybe trade smaller positions and look at the trading chart supplied and place your stop at the next Fibonacci level to give you greater flexibility and then when you can next look at your broker account adjust back to my original trade set up.\r\n\r\nFor several months I have been saying trade smaller to limit your risk as this gives greater flexibility. The Forex market this year is more news headline driven than ever and this creates disruption. The markets are not as liquid as previous years, this adds to the volatility and the directional issues that we see almost daily.\r\n\r\nIf you are frustrated that you miss the revised stop announcements because you do not have access to twitter that is one thing, but if you are upset about the stop being moved and this exposes too much risk on your trade your are, in my opinion over-leveraging yourself.\r\n\r\nI know many of you trade with larger position sizes, maybe bigger than you should, but that is your call. I have been saying in many tweets of late if the stop is being moved; reduce your position size to keep within your RISK TOLERANCE levels that you have set out in your TRADE PLAN. If you do not have a TRADE PLAN, go to the EDUCATION tab and look at the examples in that section of the website. I would strongly suggest that you draw one up as soon as possible. This will give you increased focus on your trading moving forward\r\n\r\nThe Forex market is volatile and challenging and longevity in trading will only happen if you retain discipline with your trading.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/RT489-EXCEL-27092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6491\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/RT489-EXCEL-27092015.png\" alt=\"RT489 EXCEL 27092015\" width=\"450\" height=\"583\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<u>TRADE STYLE DEFINITIONS:</u>\r\n\r\nFor further clarification: -\r\n\r\nRADAR TRADES:\r\n\r\nThese are limit order entry trades when the entry level is pre-meditated based upon a Pivot point, Fibonacci Level or area of confluence. These are high probability trades based on additional information such as chart patterns etc.\r\n\r\nMostly these are trades I expect should run in normal circumstances for at least a day and possibly run into becoming swing trades should the market allow.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nFUNDAMENTAL TRADES:\r\n\r\nThese were originally intended for “Cross-rate” pairs that require greater flexibility with stop loss levels, as these pairs have much larger Average True Ranges (ATR’s) in comparison to say the USD majors.\r\n\r\nThese trades would usually last a few days or even longer. It really depends on market trends. They are best in a trending market and if the market is not trending they tend to flip-flop around and cause more pain and stress than they are worth even though the usual position sizes taken are much smaller than normal trades.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nFLASH TRADES:\r\n\r\nThese are basically what they sound like. These trades are opportunist market trades at the times that a move becomes available. Originally, these were GIMME 10 or GIMME 30 pip trades but they have developed as the market has changed. These trades can also last a day or two like a RADAR TRADE, and sometimes longer than a RADAR TRADE, it all just depends on the market.\r\n\r\nI often use what is called the ”PULLBACK STRATEGY” to determine an entry point with these trades.\r\n\r\nIf you are a part-time trader and not near or don\'t have continued access to your computer screen most of the time FLASH TRADES will not apply. Computer accessibility is required 100% for FLASH TRADES in my opinion. This means that RADAR and FUNDAMENTAL trades are your concentration areas.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nIf you need help on assessing your RISK TOLERANCES per trade or how to gauge the next stop level so as to have flexibility to remain in a trade please contact me.\r\n\r\nLooking at the trades over the past week, you can see it is difficult at the moment. The market moves are sometimes just news driven, which is fine but when it outweighs events it does throw up some weird and sometimes unexplainable Forex moves. One or two of you ask what made a certain move happen, as there was no visible news or event to manufacture such a move.\r\n\r\nSometimes it can just be a thin trading, illiquid time and an institution or muscle bank places a big order and a knee-jerk reaction takes place. I think we have had two or three of these events last week and this resulted in moving stops.\r\n\r\nI do not want to repeat myself too much, but if you go into the trade with just a little bit of tolerance “in your back pocket” so to speak, it gives you just a little bit of capacity to soak up the added volatility. This is why I am rarely more than 25% invested in my initial trades. You can always add to existing trades with new positions and move stops on the original trades to cover.\r\n\r\nThe markets have re-invented themselves again, the environment has changed this year over last and we seem to have been in transition mode for some time waiting on the FED. We have to as traders, adjust to lower volumes, increased volatility and an increasing number of squeezes. POSITION SIZING is in my opinion the only way to adopt and this manages your risk exposure at the same time to give you greater flexibility.\r\n\r\nWith all that said the PREMIUM SERVICE doubled it’s net monthly income last week for the month of September and the ratio of profitable trades to loss making trades improved. Something is being done correctly and we move forward.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.2: MAJOR TRADING PAIRS WITH LONGER-TERM MATCHING TRENDS:\r\n(The following currency pairs have Short Term (DAILY), Medium Term (WEEKLY) and Long Term (MONTHLY) charts all trending in the same direction).\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PS-TRENDING-PAIRS-27092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6490\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PS-TRENDING-PAIRS-27092015.png\" alt=\"PS TRENDING PAIRS 27092015\" width=\"490\" height=\"614\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.3: THE PREMIUM SERVICE - LIVE TRADES ARE:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PS-LIVE-TRADES-27092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6489\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PS-LIVE-TRADES-27092015.png\" alt=\"PS LIVE TRADES 27092015\" width=\"716\" height=\"570\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.4: THE PREMIUM SERVICE – LIMIT ORDER TRADES ARE:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PS-LIMIT-ORDERS-27092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6488\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PS-LIMIT-ORDERS-27092015.png\" alt=\"PS LIMIT ORDERS 27092015\" width=\"698\" height=\"447\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.5: POTENTIAL TRADES - WHAT PAIRS / CHARTS AM I LOOKING AT?\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF pair interest me greatly at the present time.\r\n\r\nThe CHF currency I believe is prime for a severe weakening. I would NOT rule out Thomas Jordan (SNB) having another 2015 moment. I believe the fact that the EUR/CHF has not gathered momentum to stick above 1.1000 is causing a few murmurings in Zurich. Do not rule out a central bank intervening move. The USD/CHF is poised to make a stab at parity, this may be the catalyst for the SNB to bite the bullet on the EUR/CHF and maybe introduce another floor.\r\n\r\nBelow I have charts of the GBP/CHF, AUD/CHF and NZD/CHF all of which show great support levels from where to base trades from.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/NZDCHFDaily270920151.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6504\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/NZDCHFDaily270920151.png\" alt=\"NZDCHFDaily27092015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/AUDCHFDaily27092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6500\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/AUDCHFDaily27092015.png\" alt=\"AUDCHFDaily27092015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GBPCHFDaily27092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6499\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GBPCHFDaily27092015.png\" alt=\"GBPCHFDaily27092015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe “Loonie” had a false breakout last week but I feel that it will only be a matter of time before another attempt to blast through 1.3400 occurs. I have the NZD/CAD chart below, this has been on my RADAR for a little while now having been brought to my attention a couple of weeks ago. I am waiting for the CAD and the NZD to move in line with their longer-term trends then I want to focus on this pair. The daily chart is below, which shows a range of 0.8300 to 0.8625 being the outer limits that I would want to target.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/NZDCADDaily27092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6503\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/NZDCADDaily27092015.png\" alt=\"NZDCADDaily27092015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe AUD/NZD: I lost 177 pips on a trade last week. I would not usually let a trade run this far but I was convinced that the NZD weakness would overrule the AUD weakness. This never happened as we all know, and in fact, the move lower with this pair was exacerbated by the cross rate effects of the EUR/NZD and GBP/NZD resulting in the AUD/NZD holding up a white flag on Thursday/Friday last week. The chart below looks like 1.0900 could the resting place for this move lower and could be the area from which to establish a long trade.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/AUDNZDMonthly27092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6502\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/AUDNZDMonthly27092015.png\" alt=\"AUDNZDMonthly27092015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n	<li><strong> MY FINAL THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nOVERVIEW OF TRADING TIPS &amp; THOUGHTS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD:\r\n\r\nLast week was a difficult week. I still cannot explain to myself why some of the FX moves happened and why. I suppose at the end of the day, it’s nice to know, but it’s not essential as all we have to do is react and remain calm and in control to the best of our abilities.\r\n\r\nIn times when the markets are difficult, I sometimes have the best performances and last week was one of those, my subscriber trading business, the premium service, doubled its September income last week.\r\n\r\nHow did this happen in such a difficult week?\r\n\r\nQuite simple, it was increased flexibility, not trading to full risk tolerance at the outset of the trade. That means not trading a full-size position. Keeping a little in reserve meant that risk management principles remained intact and trade plan objectives were not broken.\r\n\r\nI believe that until the FOMC stops all this nonsense on dithering and makes a decision to raise the FED minimum rate, we will continue to be news driven and those are the worst markets to trade inside. Many times we trade on a lie, complete fiction.\r\n\r\nIf we remain flexible as traders, we stand a good chance of reaching a point when we can achieve longevity in trading and provide an income.\r\n\r\nWe still have thin trading conditions too many times in my opinion and until this changes we need to trade with this in mind.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nTake care.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nhttps://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/','THE DIVERGENCE TRADE IS STILL ON','','inherit','closed','closed','','6505-revision-v1','','','2015-09-26 16:53:28','2015-09-26 21:53:28','',6505,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/6505-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(6515,1,'2015-09-27 09:52:22','2015-09-27 14:52:22','<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>THE PREMIUM SERVICE</strong>\r\n<strong>from the</strong>\r\n<strong>WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU</strong>\r\n<strong>“The Home of Single Lot Trading”</strong></p>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>PREMIUM SERVICE FALL / AUTUMN PROMOTIONS</strong>\r\n<strong>2015</strong></p>\r\nAs we are almost at the end of September, I thought that this would be a good time to advise everyone that the AUTUMN / FALL PROMOTIONS that are currently on offer expire on the 30<sup>th</sup> September 2015.\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is on target again in its second full-year to achieve the minimum objectives of: -\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">MICRO LOT TRADING                    $1,000.00 profit</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">MINI LOT TRADING             $10,000.00 profit</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">STANDARD LOT TRADING           $100,000.00 profit</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">(All from just single lot trading in the calendar year)</p>\r\nWhilst trading conditions and approaches have altered from 2014 and allowing for a period of adjustment plus a few curveballs being thrown at the trading such as the SNB peg removal on the EUR/CHF, I am obviously delighted to be ahead on net income and pip profits over 2014.\r\n\r\nThe chart below shows the direct pip comparisons of 2015 versus 2014. (Note the PREMIUM SERVICE has a summer break for 6 weeks from late July to early September each year).\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PIP-COMPARISON-2015v2014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6514\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PIP-COMPARISON-2015v2014.png\" alt=\"PIP COMPARISON 2015v2014\" width=\"611\" height=\"525\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe data below shows the income year to date broken down by TRADING LOT STYLE; this is up to date at the end of last week close of trading September 26<sup>th</sup> 2015.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">COST INCOME ANALYSIS (USD):</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">EMANATING FROM TRADE SET-UPS – to September 26th 2015.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">MICRO LOT TRADER - 507 trades cost to trade = $50.70\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 507 trades = <strong>$803.30</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">MINI LOT TRADER - 507 trades cost to trade = $507.00\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 507 trades = <strong>$8,033.00</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">STANDARD LOT TRADER - 507 trades cost to trade = $5,070.00\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 507 trades = <strong>$80,330.00</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"></p>\r\nFurther information can be found under the PREMIUM SERVICE tab on my landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> and if you want even more data this is not a problem, just ask me.\r\n\r\nBelow, I have outlined the SPECIAL PROMOTIONS that are in position until the 30<sup>th</sup> September 2015.\r\n\r\nIf this is something that you are considering, now is the time to act to beat the deadline.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>IN OPERATION WITH MY PARTNER BROKER\r\nBLACKWELL GLOBAL</strong></p>\r\n<u>OPTION A:\r\n</u>\r\nOpen up a LIVE FX trading account with BLACKWELL GLOBAL using the link on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> and deposit USD$10,000.00 or more in your account and actively trade your account (minimum 8 trades per month) and you will receive a one year free subscription to the PREMIUM SERVICE GOLD subscription level, value USD$795.00.\r\n\r\n<u>OPTION B:\r\n</u>\r\nOpen up a LIVE FX trading account with BLACKWELL GLOBAL using the link on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> and deposit less than USD$10,000.00 in your account and actively trade your account (minimum 8 trades per month) and you will receive six months free subscription to the PREMIUM SERVICE SILVER subscription level, value USD$600.00.\r\nNOTE:\r\nEven if you already have an existing FX Broker relationship there is nothing to stop you having an additional broker. If you want to keep the PREMIUM SERVICE trades separate from your own trades this is an ideal way to benefit from an additional broker account.\r\n\r\nIn addition the PREMIUM SERVICE bonus is in addition to any other offers that BLACKWELL GLOBAL may have in place at the time of subscribing.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>DIRECTLY WITH THE PREMIUM SERVICE\r\n</strong><strong>DOUBLE UP!</strong></p>\r\n<u>OPTION C:</u>\r\n\r\nWhether it is a SILVER or GOLD level subscription that you sign up for I will match the subscription.\r\n\r\n4 weeks SILVER you will get 8 weeks subscription for the same price USD$100.00\r\n\r\n10, 20 or 40 weeks subscriptions to the GOLD level means that I will double your subscription period. Sign up for one year at USD$795.00 you will receive a bonus year free of charge.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>PLEASE NOTE: </u></strong>\r\n\r\nAll subscriptions OPTIONS A, B or C so will start on September 12<sup>th</sup> 2015 and subscription periods will be calculated from this date even if notifications of trade set-ups are provided earlier.\r\n\r\nGo to <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> to sign up for any of these options, or contact me at <a href=\"mailto:premiumservice@weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">premiumservice@weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> for further information if required.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nSeptember 27th 2015\r\n<a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\r\n</a>BLOG REF #169','PREMIUM SERVICE FALL / AUTUMN PROMOTIONS  2015... EXPIRE 30th SEPTEMBER 2015','','publish','open','closed','','premium-service-fall-autumn-promotions-2015-expire-30th-september-2015','','','2015-09-27 09:52:22','2015-09-27 14:52:22','',0,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?p=6515',0,'post','',0),(6516,1,'2015-09-27 09:52:22','2015-09-27 14:52:22','<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>THE PREMIUM SERVICE</strong>\r\n<strong>from the</strong>\r\n<strong>WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU</strong>\r\n<strong>“The Home of Single Lot Trading”</strong></p>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>PREMIUM SERVICE FALL / AUTUMN PROMOTIONS</strong>\r\n<strong>2015</strong></p>\r\nAs we are almost at the end of September, I thought that this would be a good time to advise everyone that the AUTUMN / FALL PROMOTIONS that are currently on offer expire on the 30<sup>th</sup> September 2015.\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE is on target again in its second full-year to achieve the minimum objectives of: -\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">MICRO LOT TRADING                    $1,000.00 profit</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">MINI LOT TRADING             $10,000.00 profit</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">STANDARD LOT TRADING           $100,000.00 profit</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">(All from just single lot trading in the calendar year)</p>\r\nWhilst trading conditions and approaches have altered from 2014 and allowing for a period of adjustment plus a few curveballs being thrown at the trading such as the SNB peg removal on the EUR/CHF, I am obviously delighted to be ahead on net income and pip profits over 2014.\r\n\r\nThe chart below shows the direct pip comparisons of 2015 versus 2014. (Note the PREMIUM SERVICE has a summer break for 6 weeks from late July to early September each year).\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PIP-COMPARISON-2015v2014.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6514\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PIP-COMPARISON-2015v2014.png\" alt=\"PIP COMPARISON 2015v2014\" width=\"611\" height=\"525\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe data below shows the income year to date broken down by TRADING LOT STYLE; this is up to date at the end of last week close of trading September 26<sup>th</sup> 2015.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">COST INCOME ANALYSIS (USD):</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">EMANATING FROM TRADE SET-UPS – to September 26th 2015.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">MICRO LOT TRADER - 507 trades cost to trade = $50.70\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 507 trades = <strong>$803.30</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">MINI LOT TRADER - 507 trades cost to trade = $507.00\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 507 trades = <strong>$8,033.00</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">STANDARD LOT TRADER - 507 trades cost to trade = $5,070.00\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 507 trades = <strong>$80,330.00</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"></p>\r\nFurther information can be found under the PREMIUM SERVICE tab on my landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> and if you want even more data this is not a problem, just ask me.\r\n\r\nBelow, I have outlined the SPECIAL PROMOTIONS that are in position until the 30<sup>th</sup> September 2015.\r\n\r\nIf this is something that you are considering, now is the time to act to beat the deadline.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>IN OPERATION WITH MY PARTNER BROKER\r\nBLACKWELL GLOBAL</strong></p>\r\n<u>OPTION A:\r\n</u>\r\nOpen up a LIVE FX trading account with BLACKWELL GLOBAL using the link on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> and deposit USD$10,000.00 or more in your account and actively trade your account (minimum 8 trades per month) and you will receive a one year free subscription to the PREMIUM SERVICE GOLD subscription level, value USD$795.00.\r\n\r\n<u>OPTION B:\r\n</u>\r\nOpen up a LIVE FX trading account with BLACKWELL GLOBAL using the link on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> and deposit less than USD$10,000.00 in your account and actively trade your account (minimum 8 trades per month) and you will receive six months free subscription to the PREMIUM SERVICE SILVER subscription level, value USD$600.00.\r\nNOTE:\r\nEven if you already have an existing FX Broker relationship there is nothing to stop you having an additional broker. If you want to keep the PREMIUM SERVICE trades separate from your own trades this is an ideal way to benefit from an additional broker account.\r\n\r\nIn addition the PREMIUM SERVICE bonus is in addition to any other offers that BLACKWELL GLOBAL may have in place at the time of subscribing.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>DIRECTLY WITH THE PREMIUM SERVICE\r\n</strong><strong>DOUBLE UP!</strong></p>\r\n<u>OPTION C:</u>\r\n\r\nWhether it is a SILVER or GOLD level subscription that you sign up for I will match the subscription.\r\n\r\n4 weeks SILVER you will get 8 weeks subscription for the same price USD$100.00\r\n\r\n10, 20 or 40 weeks subscriptions to the GOLD level means that I will double your subscription period. Sign up for one year at USD$795.00 you will receive a bonus year free of charge.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>PLEASE NOTE: </u></strong>\r\n\r\nAll subscriptions OPTIONS A, B or C so will start on September 12<sup>th</sup> 2015 and subscription periods will be calculated from this date even if notifications of trade set-ups are provided earlier.\r\n\r\nGo to <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> to sign up for any of these options, or contact me at <a href=\"mailto:premiumservice@weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">premiumservice@weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> for further information if required.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nSeptember 27th 2015\r\n<a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\r\n</a>BLOG REF #169','PREMIUM SERVICE FALL / AUTUMN PROMOTIONS  2015... EXPIRE 30th SEPTEMBER 2015','','inherit','closed','closed','','6515-revision-v1','','','2015-09-27 09:52:22','2015-09-27 14:52:22','',6515,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/6515-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(6537,1,'2015-09-30 09:22:27','2015-09-30 14:22:27','<section class=\"one-sixth first\">\r\n<h4>Completed Trades Risk/Reward Analysis Archives</h4>\r\n<div class=\"menu\"><a class=\"flashmenu-item\" href=\"#\">2015</a></div>\r\n</section><section class=\"five-sixths\">\r\n<div class=\"one-half first\">\r\n<h2>This Year\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/RISK-REWARD-RATIO-092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6530\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/RISK-REWARD-RATIO-092015.png\" alt=\"RISK-REWARD RATIO 092015\" width=\"429\" height=\"534\" /></a></h2>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"one-half\">\r\n<h2>PREVIOUS YEARS</h2>\r\n<h2><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/PREM-SERV-RISK-REWARD-31122014-YTD.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-4964\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/PREM-SERV-RISK-REWARD-31122014-YTD.png\" alt=\"PREM SERV RISK-REWARD 31122014 YTD\" width=\"436\" height=\"543\" /></a></h2>\r\n</div>\r\n</section>','COMPLETED TRADES RISK / REWARD ANALYSIS','','inherit','closed','closed','','5006-revision-v1','','','2015-09-30 09:22:27','2015-09-30 14:22:27','',5006,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/5006-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(6543,1,'2015-09-30 15:06:50','2015-09-30 20:06:50','<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>THE PREMIUM SERVICE</strong>\r\n<strong>from the</strong>\r\n<strong>WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU</strong>\r\n<strong>“The Home of Single Lot Trading”</strong></p>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">PREMIUM SERVICE\r\nSEPTEMBER and 2015 YEAR TO DATE PERFORMANCE\r\nplus\r\nSUBSCRIBER PROMOTION EXTENDED</p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li>INTRODUCTION:</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThe final numbers for this month (September) are now calculated and all my spreadsheets are now updated\r\n\r\nI have decided that in view of the fact that the end of the month coincides with the middle of the week, to extend the AUTUMN/FALL PROMOTION until midnight this Sunday 4<sup>th</sup> October 2015, EDT (New York time).\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n	<li>SEPTEMBER TRADE PERFORMANCE:</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThe following spreadsheets are self-explanatory, however, should you have any questions about the content do not hesitate to make contact me for further clarification.\r\n\r\n2.1. PERFORMANCE BY TRADE STYLE:\r\n\r\nRADAR TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/RADAR1-30092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6521\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/RADAR1-30092015.png\" alt=\"RADAR1 30092015\" width=\"521\" height=\"562\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/RADAR2-30092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6522\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/RADAR2-30092015.png\" alt=\"RADAR2 30092015\" width=\"516\" height=\"561\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nFLASH TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/FLASH1-30092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6524\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/FLASH1-30092015.png\" alt=\"FLASH1 30092015\" width=\"495\" height=\"548\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/FLASH2-30092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6525\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/FLASH2-30092015.png\" alt=\"FLASH2 30092015\" width=\"509\" height=\"545\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nFUNDAMENTAL TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/FUNDAMENTAL-30092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6527\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/FUNDAMENTAL-30092015.png\" alt=\"FUNDAMENTAL 30092015\" width=\"501\" height=\"565\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n	<li>YEAR TO DATE TRADES PERFORMANCE:</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThe following spreadsheets are self-explanatory, however, should you have any questions about the content do not hesitate to make contact me for further clarification.\r\n\r\n3.1 PERFORMANCE BY TRADE STYLE:\r\n\r\nRADAR TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/RADAR-YTD-092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6523\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/RADAR-YTD-092015.png\" alt=\"RADAR YTD 092015\" width=\"436\" height=\"462\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nFLASH TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/FLASH-YTD-092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6526\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/FLASH-YTD-092015.png\" alt=\"FLASH YTD 092015\" width=\"430\" height=\"459\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nFUNDAMENTAL TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/FUN-YTD-092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6528\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/FUN-YTD-092015.png\" alt=\"FUN YTD 092015\" width=\"429\" height=\"454\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n	<li>MONTH and YEAR TO DATE FURTHER ANALYSIS:</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n4.1 PROFIT / LOSS RATIOS - (MONTH and YEAR TO DATE):\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PROFIT-LOSS-RATIOS-092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6529\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PROFIT-LOSS-RATIOS-092015.png\" alt=\"PROFIT-LOSS RATIOS 092015\" width=\"412\" height=\"582\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.2 RISK/REWARD ANALYSIS - (MONTH and TEAR TO DATE):\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/RISK-REWARD-RATIO-092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6530\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/RISK-REWARD-RATIO-092015.png\" alt=\"RISK-REWARD RATIO 092015\" width=\"429\" height=\"534\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.3 PIP COMPARISON ANALYSIS 2014 versus 2015:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PIP-COMPARISON-15v14-092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6531\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PIP-COMPARISON-15v14-092015.png\" alt=\"PIP COMPARISON 15v14 092015\" width=\"624\" height=\"542\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n	<li>TRADE INCOME MONTH and YEAR TO DATE:</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PREMSERVPROFITS1-30092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6519\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PREMSERVPROFITS1-30092015.png\" alt=\"PREMSERVPROFITS1 30092015\" width=\"453\" height=\"417\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PREMSERVPROFITS2-30092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6520\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PREMSERVPROFITS2-30092015.png\" alt=\"PREMSERVPROFITS2 30092015\" width=\"461\" height=\"428\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe data below shows the income year to date broken down by TRADING LOT STYLE up to 30<sup>th</sup> September 2015.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">COST INCOME ANALYSIS (USD):</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">EMANATING FROM TRADE SET-UPS</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">MICRO LOT TRADER - 516 trades cost to trade = $1.60\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 516 trades = <strong>$863.00</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">MINI LOT TRADER - 516 trades cost to trade = $516.00\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 516 trades = <strong>$8,630.00</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">STANDARD LOT TRADER - 516 trades cost to trade = $5,160.00\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 516 trades = <strong>$86,300.00</strong></p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nFurther information can be found under the tab titled PREMIUM SERVICE on my landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nIf you want even more data this is not a problem, just ask me.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n	<li>MY COMMENTS / THOUGHTS ON THE PREMIUM SERVICE 2015:</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nObviously I am delighted that the 2015 performance by way of pips generated is ahead of 2014 by a total of 605 pips.\r\n\r\nWhether or not this will remain until the end of 2015 if difficult to say. The final four months last year were great for “MARKET DIRECTIONAL” trades. Unless we see the same this year it will be challenging to stay ahead this year. That is my challenge.\r\n\r\nThis year, as you may know is a completely different Forex market to trade inside in comparison to 2014. The PREMIUM SERVICE has already completed more trades this year than last year. This year the total completed trades to the end of September is 516 trades, last year the final total was 512.\r\n\r\nThe income split between the types of trade RADAR, FLASH and FUNDAMENTAL is also different.\r\n\r\nMy point is that as trading styles evolves to suit the market conditions my trading suggestions and trading style through the PREMIUM SERVICE has also evolved.\r\n\r\nThe profit / loss ratios are now almost at my annual objective of 75% profit making trades against 25% loss making trades. The month of September was 79/21% and the year to date is now 74/26%.\r\n\r\nWith all the changes with the market dynamics this year, my primary goals based on the types / value of “lots” traded remain on target.\r\n\r\nBasically, if I assume about 700 completed trades for 2015. Net incomes based on my primary objectives should be something like the following: -\r\n\r\nMy primary income objectives are: -\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>$1,000.00 for MICRO LOT traders</li>\r\n	<li>$10,000.00 for MINI LOT traders</li>\r\n	<li>$100,000.00 for STANDARD LOT traders</li>\r\n	<li>All of the above gross income targets are based from just single-lot trades only.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMICRO LOT TRADERS<u>:</u>\r\n\r\n700 trades = cost to initiate of $70.00.\r\n\r\nAnnual profit target $1.000.00 (as at 30<sup>th</sup> September 2015, $863.00)\r\n\r\nNET TARGET INCOME = $1,000.00 - $70.00 = <strong><u>$930.00</u></strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMICRO LOT TRADERS:\r\n\r\n700 trades = cost to initiate of $700.00.\r\n\r\nAnnual profit target $10.000.00 (as at 30<sup>th</sup> September 2015, $8,630.00)\r\n\r\nNET TARGET INCOME = $10,000.00 - $700.00 = <strong><u>$9,300.00</u></strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nSTANDARD LOT TRADERS:\r\n\r\n700 trades = cost to initiate of $7,000.00.\r\n\r\nAnnual profit target $100.000.00 (as at 30<sup>th</sup> September 2015, $86,300.00)\r\n\r\nNET TARGET INCOME = $100,000.00 - $7,000.00 = <strong><u>$93,000.00</u></strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nObviously, not everyone can fund an account large enough to trade with STANDARD LOTS, many traders in my opinion trade MINI LOTS when they should in fact only trade MICRO LOTS.\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, the amounts required to trade the different trade sizes are as follows: -\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nSUGGESTED BROKER ACCOUNT VALUES:\r\n\r\nMICRO LOTS: from $500.00 to $10,000.00.\r\n\r\nMINI LOTS: Between $10,000.00 and $50,000.00.\r\n\r\nSTANDARD LOTS: Minimum of $50,000.00.\r\n\r\nI can help you in deciding upon trade styles and position sizes as well as opening a Forex broker account if required.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"7\">\r\n	<li>PREMIUM SERVICE – AUTUMN/ FALL PROMOTION:</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nBelow, I outline the SPECIAL PROMOTIONS that are in position until midnight 4<sup>th</sup> October 2015, EDT (New York time). September 2015.\r\n\r\nIf this is something that you are considering, now is the time to act. You will be able to establish your routine from now until the end of this year and then be ready from January 2016 for a complete year.<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>IN OPERATION WITH MY PARTNER BROKER\r\nBLACKWELL GLOBAL</strong></p>\r\n<u>OPTION A:\r\n</u>\r\nOpen up a LIVE FX trading account with BLACKWELL GLOBAL using the link on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> and deposit USD$10,000.00 or more in your account and actively trade your account (minimum 8 trades per month) and you will receive a one year free subscription to the PREMIUM SERVICE GOLD subscription level, value USD$795.00.\r\n\r\n<u>OPTION B:\r\n</u>\r\nOpen up a LIVE FX trading account with BLACKWELL GLOBAL using the link on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> and deposit less than USD$10,000.00 in your account and actively trade your account (minimum 8 trades per month) and you will receive six months free subscription to the PREMIUM SERVICE SILVER subscription level, value USD$600.00.\r\nNOTE:\r\n\r\nEven if you already have an existing FX Broker relationship there is nothing to stop you having an additional broker. If you want to keep the PREMIUM SERVICE trades separate from your own trades this is an ideal way to benefit from an additional broker account.\r\n\r\nIn addition the PREMIUM SERVICE bonus is in addition to any other offers that BLACKWELL GLOBAL may have in place at the time of subscribing.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>DIRECTLY WITH THE PREMIUM SERVICE\r\n</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>DOUBLE UP!</strong></p>\r\n<u>OPTION C:</u>\r\n\r\nWhether it is a SILVER or GOLD level subscription that you sign up for I will match the subscription.\r\n\r\n4 weeks SILVER you will get 8 weeks subscription for the same price USD$100.00\r\n\r\n10, 20 or 40 weeks subscriptions to the GOLD level means that I will double your subscription period. Sign up for one year at USD$795.00 you will receive a bonus year free of charge.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGo to <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> to sign up for any of these options, or contact me at <a href=\"mailto:premiumservice@weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">premiumservice@weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> for further information if required.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nSeptember 30th 2015\r\n<a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\r\n</a>BLOG REF #170','PREMIUM SERVICE SEPTEMBER and 2015 YTD PERFORMANCE plus SUBSCRIBER PROMOTION EXTENDED','','publish','open','closed','','premium-service-september-and-2015-ytd-performance-plus-subscriber-promotion-extended','','','2015-09-30 15:06:50','2015-09-30 20:06:50','',0,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?p=6543',0,'post','',0),(6544,1,'2015-09-30 11:44:21','2015-09-30 16:44:21','<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>THE PREMIUM SERVICE</strong>\r\n<strong>from the</strong>\r\n<strong>WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU</strong>\r\n<strong>“The Home of Single Lot Trading”</strong></p>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">PREMIUM SERVICE\r\nSEPTEMBER and 2015 YEAR TO DATE PERFORMANCE\r\nplus\r\nSUBSCRIBER PROMOTION EXTENDED</p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li>INTRODUCTION:</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThe final numbers for this month (September) are now calculated and all my spreadsheets are now updated\r\n\r\nI have decided that in view of the fact that the end of the month coincides with the middle of the week, to extend the AUTUMN/FALL PROMOTION until midnight this Sunday 4<sup>th</sup> October 2015, EDT (New York time).\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n	<li>SEPTEMBER TRADE PERFORMANCE:</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThe following spreadsheets are self-explanatory, however, should you have any questions about the content do not hesitate to make contact me for further clarification.\r\n\r\n2.1. PERFORMANCE BY TRADE STYLE:\r\n\r\nRADAR TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/RADAR1-30092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6521\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/RADAR1-30092015.png\" alt=\"RADAR1 30092015\" width=\"521\" height=\"562\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/RADAR2-30092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6522\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/RADAR2-30092015.png\" alt=\"RADAR2 30092015\" width=\"516\" height=\"561\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nFLASH TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/FLASH1-30092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6524\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/FLASH1-30092015.png\" alt=\"FLASH1 30092015\" width=\"495\" height=\"548\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/FLASH2-30092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6525\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/FLASH2-30092015.png\" alt=\"FLASH2 30092015\" width=\"509\" height=\"545\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nFUNDAMENTAL TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/FUNDAMENTAL-30092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6527\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/FUNDAMENTAL-30092015.png\" alt=\"FUNDAMENTAL 30092015\" width=\"501\" height=\"565\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n	<li>YEAR TO DATE TRADES PERFORMANCE:</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThe following spreadsheets are self-explanatory, however, should you have any questions about the content do not hesitate to make contact me for further clarification.\r\n\r\n3.1 PERFORMANCE BY TRADE STYLE:\r\n\r\nRADAR TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/RADAR-YTD-092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6523\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/RADAR-YTD-092015.png\" alt=\"RADAR YTD 092015\" width=\"436\" height=\"462\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nFLASH TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/FLASH-YTD-092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6526\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/FLASH-YTD-092015.png\" alt=\"FLASH YTD 092015\" width=\"430\" height=\"459\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nFUNDAMENTAL TRADES:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/FUN-YTD-092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6528\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/FUN-YTD-092015.png\" alt=\"FUN YTD 092015\" width=\"429\" height=\"454\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n	<li>MONTH and YEAR TO DATE FURTHER ANALYSIS:</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n4.1 PROFIT / LOSS RATIOS - (MONTH and YEAR TO DATE):\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PROFIT-LOSS-RATIOS-092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6529\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PROFIT-LOSS-RATIOS-092015.png\" alt=\"PROFIT-LOSS RATIOS 092015\" width=\"412\" height=\"582\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.2 RISK/REWARD ANALYSIS - (MONTH and TEAR TO DATE):\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/RISK-REWARD-RATIO-092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6530\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/RISK-REWARD-RATIO-092015.png\" alt=\"RISK-REWARD RATIO 092015\" width=\"429\" height=\"534\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.3 PIP COMPARISON ANALYSIS 2014 versus 2015:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PIP-COMPARISON-15v14-092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6531\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PIP-COMPARISON-15v14-092015.png\" alt=\"PIP COMPARISON 15v14 092015\" width=\"624\" height=\"542\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n	<li>TRADE INCOME MONTH and YEAR TO DATE:</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PREMSERVPROFITS1-30092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6519\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PREMSERVPROFITS1-30092015.png\" alt=\"PREMSERVPROFITS1 30092015\" width=\"453\" height=\"417\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PREMSERVPROFITS2-30092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6520\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/PREMSERVPROFITS2-30092015.png\" alt=\"PREMSERVPROFITS2 30092015\" width=\"461\" height=\"428\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe data below shows the income year to date broken down by TRADING LOT STYLE up to 30<sup>th</sup> September 2015.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">COST INCOME ANALYSIS (USD):</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">EMANATING FROM TRADE SET-UPS</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">MICRO LOT TRADER - 516 trades cost to trade = $1.60\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 516 trades = <strong>$863.00</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">MINI LOT TRADER - 516 trades cost to trade = $516.00\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 516 trades = <strong>$8,630.00</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">STANDARD LOT TRADER - 516 trades cost to trade = $5,160.00\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 516 trades = <strong>$86,300.00</strong></p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nFurther information can be found under the tab titled PREMIUM SERVICE on my landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>\r\n\r\nIf you want even more data this is not a problem, just ask me.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"6\">\r\n	<li>MY COMMENTS / THOUGHTS ON THE PREMIUM SERVICE 2015:</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nObviously I am delighted that the 2015 performance by way of pips generated is ahead of 2014 by a total of 605 pips.\r\n\r\nWhether or not this will remain until the end of 2015 if difficult to say. The final four months last year were great for “MARKET DIRECTIONAL” trades. Unless we see the same this year it will be challenging to stay ahead this year. That is my challenge.\r\n\r\nThis year, as you may know is a completely different Forex market to trade inside in comparison to 2014. The PREMIUM SERVICE has already completed more trades this year than last year. This year the total completed trades to the end of September is 516 trades, last year the final total was 512.\r\n\r\nThe income split between the types of trade RADAR, FLASH and FUNDAMENTAL is also different.\r\n\r\nMy point is that as trading styles evolves to suit the market conditions my trading suggestions and trading style through the PREMIUM SERVICE has also evolved.\r\n\r\nThe profit / loss ratios are now almost at my annual objective of 75% profit making trades against 25% loss making trades. The month of September was 79/21% and the year to date is now 74/26%.\r\n\r\nWith all the changes with the market dynamics this year, my primary goals based on the types / value of “lots” traded remain on target.\r\n\r\nBasically, if I assume about 700 completed trades for 2015. Net incomes based on my primary objectives should be something like the following: -\r\n\r\nMy primary income objectives are: -\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>$1,000.00 for MICRO LOT traders</li>\r\n	<li>$10,000.00 for MINI LOT traders</li>\r\n	<li>$100,000.00 for STANDARD LOT traders</li>\r\n	<li>All of the above gross income targets are based from just single-lot trades only.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMICRO LOT TRADERS<u>:</u>\r\n\r\n700 trades = cost to initiate of $70.00.\r\n\r\nAnnual profit target $1.000.00 (as at 30<sup>th</sup> September 2015, $863.00)\r\n\r\nNET TARGET INCOME = $1,000.00 - $70.00 = <strong><u>$930.00</u></strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMICRO LOT TRADERS:\r\n\r\n700 trades = cost to initiate of $700.00.\r\n\r\nAnnual profit target $10.000.00 (as at 30<sup>th</sup> September 2015, $8,630.00)\r\n\r\nNET TARGET INCOME = $10,000.00 - $700.00 = <strong><u>$9,300.00</u></strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nSTANDARD LOT TRADERS:\r\n\r\n700 trades = cost to initiate of $7,000.00.\r\n\r\nAnnual profit target $100.000.00 (as at 30<sup>th</sup> September 2015, $86,300.00)\r\n\r\nNET TARGET INCOME = $100,000.00 - $7,000.00 = <strong><u>$93,000.00</u></strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nObviously, not everyone can fund an account large enough to trade with STANDARD LOTS, many traders in my opinion trade MINI LOTS when they should in fact only trade MICRO LOTS.\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, the amounts required to trade the different trade sizes are as follows: -\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nSUGGESTED BROKER ACCOUNT VALUES:\r\n\r\nMICRO LOTS: from $500.00 to $10,000.00.\r\n\r\nMINI LOTS: Between $10,000.00 and $50,000.00.\r\n\r\nSTANDARD LOTS: Minimum of $50,000.00.\r\n\r\nI can help you in deciding upon trade styles and position sizes as well as opening a Forex broker account if required.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"7\">\r\n	<li>PREMIUM SERVICE – AUTUMN/ FALL PROMOTION:</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nBelow, I outline the SPECIAL PROMOTIONS that are in position until midnight 4<sup>th</sup> October 2015, EDT (New York time). September 2015.\r\n\r\nIf this is something that you are considering, now is the time to act. You will be able to establish your routine from now until the end of this year and then be ready from January 2016 for a complete year.<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>IN OPERATION WITH MY PARTNER BROKER\r\nBLACKWELL GLOBAL</strong></p>\r\n<u>OPTION A:\r\n</u>\r\nOpen up a LIVE FX trading account with BLACKWELL GLOBAL using the link on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> and deposit USD$10,000.00 or more in your account and actively trade your account (minimum 8 trades per month) and you will receive a one year free subscription to the PREMIUM SERVICE GOLD subscription level, value USD$795.00.\r\n\r\n<u>OPTION B:\r\n</u>\r\nOpen up a LIVE FX trading account with BLACKWELL GLOBAL using the link on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> and deposit less than USD$10,000.00 in your account and actively trade your account (minimum 8 trades per month) and you will receive six months free subscription to the PREMIUM SERVICE SILVER subscription level, value USD$600.00.\r\nNOTE:\r\n\r\nEven if you already have an existing FX Broker relationship there is nothing to stop you having an additional broker. If you want to keep the PREMIUM SERVICE trades separate from your own trades this is an ideal way to benefit from an additional broker account.\r\n\r\nIn addition the PREMIUM SERVICE bonus is in addition to any other offers that BLACKWELL GLOBAL may have in place at the time of subscribing.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>DIRECTLY WITH THE PREMIUM SERVICE\r\n</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>DOUBLE UP!</strong></p>\r\n<u>OPTION C:</u>\r\n\r\nWhether it is a SILVER or GOLD level subscription that you sign up for I will match the subscription.\r\n\r\n4 weeks SILVER you will get 8 weeks subscription for the same price USD$100.00\r\n\r\n10, 20 or 40 weeks subscriptions to the GOLD level means that I will double your subscription period. Sign up for one year at USD$795.00 you will receive a bonus year free of charge.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGo to <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> to sign up for any of these options, or contact me at <a href=\"mailto:premiumservice@weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">premiumservice@weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> for further information if required.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nSeptember 30th 2015\r\n<a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\">http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\r\n</a>BLOG REF #170','PREMIUM SERVICE SEPTEMBER and 2015 YTD PERFORMANCE plus SUBSCRIBER PROMOTION EXTENDED','','inherit','closed','closed','','6543-revision-v1','','','2015-09-30 11:44:21','2015-09-30 16:44:21','',6543,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/6543-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(6545,1,'2015-10-02 05:08:24','2015-10-02 10:08:24','','STAIR STEPPING STOP PROTECTION','','inherit','open','closed','','stair-stepping-stop-protection','','','2015-10-02 05:10:17','2015-10-02 10:10:17','',2538,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/STAIR-STEPPING-STOP-PROTECTION.pdf',0,'attachment','application/pdf',0),(6546,1,'2015-10-02 05:10:27','2015-10-02 10:10:27','<section class=\"pdf-links\">\r\n<div class=\"one-third first\">\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/TRADING-WITH-ATRs.pdf\">TRADING WITH ATR\'s</a>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/HEDGING.pdf\">HEDGING</a>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/CREATING-A-TRADING-PLAN-3.0.pdf\">CREATING A TRADING PLAN</a>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/FOLLOWING-YOUR-TRADING-PLAN-.pdf\">FOLLOWING YOUR TRADING PLAN</a>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/PLANNING-YOUR-TRADES-2.0.pdf\">PLANNING YOUR TRADES (2.0)</a>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/MANAGING-RISK.pdf\">MANAGING RISK</a>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/STOP-PLACEMENT.pdf\">STOP PLACEMENT</a>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/MAXIMISING-PROFIT-POTENTIAL-BY-PROPERLY-SIZING-POSITIONS.pdf\">MAXIMISING PROFIT POTENTIAL BY PROPERLY SIZING POSITIONS</a>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/TRADING-AROUND-THE-NEWS.pdf\">TRADING AROUND THE NEWS</a>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/HANDLING-NEWS-WITH-AN-OPEN-POSITION.pdf\">HANDLING NEWS WITH AN OPEN POSITION</a>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/LIVE-ACCOUNT-vs-DEMO-ACCOUNT.pdf\">LIVE ACCOUNT vs DEMO ACCOUNT</a>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/TRADING-WITH-A-FLEXIBLE-MINDSET.pdf\">TRADING WITH A FLEXIBLE MINDSET</a>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/PROBABILITIES-IN-TRADING.pdf\">PROBABILITIES IN TRADING</a>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/TRADING-PSYCHOLOGY-AND-DRAWDOWNS.pdf\">TRADING PSYCHOLOGY AND DRAWDOWNS</a>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/TRADING-PSYCHOLOGY-RECENCY-BIAS.pdf\">TRADING PSYCHOLOGY - RECENCY BIAS</a>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/A-MATHEMATICAL-APPROACH-TO-ELIMINATING-EMOTIONS.pdf\">A MATHEMATICAL APPROACH TO ELIMINATING EMOTIONS</a>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/STEPS-TO-TAKE-WHEN-FACED-WITH-STRESSFUL-FOREX-SITUATIONS.pdf\">STEPS TO TAKE WHEN FACED WITH STRESSFUL FOREX SITUATIONS</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"one-third\">\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/ARE-YOU-FORCING-TRADES_.pdf\">ARE YOU FORCING TRADES_</a>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/TIPS-IN-ADJUSTING-TO-THE-FOREX-MARKET-WHEN-THERE-IS-LOW-VOLATILITY.pdf\">TIPS IN ADJUSTING TO THE FOREX MARKET WHEN THERE IS LOW VOLATILITY</a>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/TIPS-ON-GETTING-BACK-INTO-TRADING-AFTER-A-BREAK.pdf\">TIPS ON GETTING BACK INTO TRADING AFTER A BREAK</a>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/FX-BROKERS-PART-1.pdf\">FX BROKERS -PART 1</a>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/FX-BROKERS-PART-2.pdf\">FX BROKERS - PART 2</a>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/TRADING-MISTAKES-THAT-MAY-BE-LIMITING-YOUR-PROFITABILITY.pdf\">TRADING MISTAKES THAT MAY BE LIMITING YOUR PROFITABILITY</a>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/TRADING-OUTSIDE-OF-YOUR-COMFORT-ZONE.pdf\">TRADING OUTSIDE OF YOUR COMFORT ZONE</a>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/ARE-YOU-PREDICTING-PRICE-ACTION_.pdf\">ARE YOU PREDICTING PRICE ACTION</a>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/DONT-GIVE-UP-ON-YOUR-TRADE-PLAN.pdf\">DON\'T GIVE UP ON YOUR TRADE PLAN</a>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/HOW-TO-ADJUST-TO-CHANGING-TRADING-CONDITIONS.pdf\">HOW TO ADJUST TO CHANGING TRADING CONDITIONS</a>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/HOW-TO-HANDLE-YOUR-FOREX-TRADING-WORRIES.pdf\">HOW TO HANDLE YOUR FOREX TRADING WORRIES</a>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/3-WAYS-TO-ENHANCE-YOUR-FOREX-TRADING-SKILLS.pdf\">3 WAYS TO ENHANCE YOUR FOREX TRADING SKILLS</a>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/THE-STAGES-OF-LOSS-IN-FOREX.pdf\">THE STAGES OF LOSS IN FOREX</a>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/ARE-YOU-A-GREEDY-FOREX-TRADER_.pdf\">ARE YOU A GREEDY FOREX TRADER_</a>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/TRADING-HABITS-THAT-WILL-HELP-YOU-MANAGE-YOUR-OPEN-POSITIONS.pdf\">TRADING HABITS THAT WILL HELP YOU MANAGE YOUR OPEN POSITIONS</a>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/STAIR-STEPPING-STOP-PROTECTION.pdf\">STAIR STEPPING STOP PROTECTION</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"one-third\">\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/SEVERAL-WAYS-TO-OVERCOME-TRADING-BURNOUT.pdf\">SEVERAL WAYS TO OVERCOME TRADING BURNOUT</a>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/HOW-YOUR-PHYSICAL-WELL-BEING-AFFECTS-YOUR-FX-TRADING.pdf\">HOW YOUR PHYSICAL WELL-BEING AFFECTS YOUR FX TRADING</a>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/5-OF-THE-WORST-EXCUSES-TO-NOT-START-TRADING.pdf\">5 OF THE WORST EXCUSES TO NOT START TRADING</a>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/MY-APPROACH-ON-POSITION-SIZING.pdf\">MY APPROACH ON POSITION SIZING</a>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/8-QUICK-REMINDERS-BEFORE-MAKING-YOUR-2015-TRADING-GOALS.pdf\">8 QUICK REMINDERS BEFORE MAKING YOUR 2015 TRADING GOALS</a>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/IDEAS-THAT-MAYBE-YOU-SHOULD-ADD-TO-YOUR-FOREX-TRADING-RESOLUTIONS.pdf\">IDEAS THAT MAYBE YOU SHOULD ADD TO YOUR FOREX TRADING RESOLUTIONS</a>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/POSITION-SIZING...TIPS-ON-HOW-TO-AVOID-RISKING-TOO-MUCH.pdf\">POSITION SIZING...TIPS ON HOW TO AVOID RISKING TOO MUCH</a>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/HOW-TO-PLAN-YOUR-FOREX-TRADE-EXITS.pdf\">HOW TO PLAN YOUR FOREX TRADE EXITS</a>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/THE-5-MOST-COMMON-MISTAKES-NEWBIE-TRADERS-MAKE.pdf\">THE 5 MOST COMMON MISTAKES NEWBIE TRADERS MAKE</a>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/THE-CRITICAL-SUCCESS-FACTORS-YOU-NEED-TO-BECOME-A-SUCCESSFUL-TRADER.pdf\">THE CRITICAL SUCCESS FACTORS YOU NEED TO BECOME A SUCCESSFUL TRADER</a>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/FOUR-PSYCHOLOGICAL-PITFALLS-THAT-WILL-BLOW-YOUR-ACCOUNT.pdf\">FOUR PSYCHOLOGICAL PITFALLS THAT WILL BLOW YOUR ACCOUNT</a>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/THE-MOST-OVERLOOKED-RISKS-IN-TRADING-AND-HOW-TO-ADDRESS-THEM.pdf\">THE MOST OVERLOOKED RISKS IN TRADING AND HOW TO ADDRESS THEM</a>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/HOW-MUCH-TRADING-CAPITAL-DO-YOU-NEED-FOR-FOREX-TRADING.pdf\">HOW MUCH TRADING CAPITAL DO YOU NEED FOR FOREX TRADING</a>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/CURRENCY-CORRELATION-EXPLAINED.pdf\">CURRENCY CORRELATION EXPLAINED</a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</section>\r\n<div class=\"one-half first\">These resources are in PDF format that will allow for easy printing</div>','Trading Essentials','','inherit','closed','closed','','2538-revision-v1','','','2015-10-02 05:10:27','2015-10-02 10:10:27','',2538,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/2538-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(6572,1,'2015-10-03 15:46:25','2015-10-03 20:46:25','<h3 style=\"text-align: center;\">THE PREMIUM SERVICE\r\nfrom the\r\nWEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU\r\n“The Home of Single Lot Trading”</h3>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li><strong> THE VIEW FROM MY TRADE DESK:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nLOOKING BACKWARDS, FORWARDS &amp; SIDEWAYS (FOR GOOD MEASURE) AT THE FX MARKET:\r\n\r\n1.1: LOOKING BACKWARDS:\r\n\r\nOne big event dominated the news last week, which was of course U.S. Non-Farm payrolls, expected was 201k and we saw 142k. That was a big miss and the prior two months data was also revised down by 59k.\r\n\r\nWithin minutes of this number being released there was a sea of red all over my charts and twitter feeds were out looking for the Fed to backstop equities again via the re-introduction of Quantitative Easing (QE). The “sky is falling”, doom and gloom abound, the ECB would be on for more QE, the BOJ likewise and Carney at the BOE, well, God only knows what he’s going to say. Whatever it is he has to say, I would suggest that you do not believe him. I would also check to see if he has a JCB at the back of his office to dig himself a hole with.\r\n\r\nMoving on….\r\n\r\nNow, lets just take a step back.\r\n\r\nMonetary policy by central banks is not akin to a “knee-jerk” practice. Central bank monetary policy is like a huge oil tanker trying to turn around whilst out at sea. It takes about 5 miles to stop, then start turning, it’s all done very slowly and precisely. Central banks do not make up their monetary policy on the back of a cigarette packet (maybe Mark Carney does at the BOE?).\r\n\r\nPolicy is longer-term…it is conservative with a big C. These people who set policy and sit on these committees are generally dull and boring. An exciting day for an accountant is if the weatherman predicts rain and the sun shines. Basically, they are all accountants; they will never stick their necks out to make a decision that could in anyway be seen as innovative, courageous or revolutionary.\r\n\r\nWith this as a backdrop do you honestly believe that they will make a decision to alter policy on one months data?\r\n\r\nDo you not think they base policy more on cumulative results?\r\n\r\nI am saying that a rate hike is not off the table. It’s now back onto the timing once again. Time will tell, but I can assure you that Janet Yellen probably wished that she had hiked rates last month.\r\n\r\nMy reason for saying that I bet she wished she had already acted and not dithered is quite simple. At least today, she would have something put by for a rainy day. Right now with the children on Wall Street running around like headless chickens, she has nothing. I just cannot believe I read about QE. QE what number is it now, “QE IV” the son of QE “the FED chair bites back”?\r\n\r\nJanet Yellen’s dithering has caused this uncertainty, the very thing she claims she wants to avoid in the markets. Some will argue that the FOMC nailed the decision not to hike last month. Personally, I see it as dithering; we are talking about 0.25% after 7 years of zero, not a 3% rise, after all is the USA not the biggest economy in the world, you would think it could handle 0.25%. Are things really that fragile?\r\n\r\nFundamentally, there is a problem with the fact the data was poor. However, although I believe the FOMC will not react to just one month’s data, the fact that the numbers for the previous two months were revised lower, in my opinion was a killer to a rate hike later this month. The FOMC will consider much more than what we were presented with last Friday. However, in real terms all the data was pretty dire, from the hourly average earnings growth – which was flat and the participation rate, which is now at its lowest level for 38 years\r\n\r\nBTW, in 2015 why the hell do we still have revisions?\r\n\r\nIs it not possible for the greatest country on earth to manage this counting process more efficiently?\r\n\r\nWhy do we wait months to hear of these revisions?\r\n\r\nIf NFP is that important it should be delivered professionally, which in my opinion is NOT the way it is done today.\r\n\r\nGetting back on point….\r\n\r\nWhere do we go from here?\r\n\r\nNon Manufacturing ISM data is due this week. It has to be a blow out number. If not I would be very surprised to see an October move in the FED funds rate.\r\n\r\nIf this number is low, confidence will be low moving forward and this could be the catalyst for a rather dour winter. It is going to be so difficult for the FED to “lift-off”, in my opinion, they missed the moment and the opportunity was last month. As mentioned last week and again just above, the frightening aspect of all this for me is that we are only talking about 0.25%, you would think it was a 3% hike in discussion.\r\n\r\nTime will tell what the outcome is going to be, but as stated already, I think QE calls and low rates forever are rather premature.\r\n\r\nIn the name of sanity if the FED moved policy on every bit of economic data they would be as dysfunctional as the politicians on Capitol Hill.\r\n\r\nI really do think the moment was missed and to “lift-off” now is difficult. The FOMC really have created a problem for themselves that they should never have had in the first place. Dithering has created huge uncertainty.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n1.2: LOOKING FORWARD:\r\n\r\nMAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:\r\n\r\n(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market other than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to <a href=\"http://www.forexfactory.com\">www.forexfactory.com</a> and <a href=\"http://www.tradingeconomics.com\">www.tradingeconomics.com</a> for a more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).\r\nSUNDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMi.\r\nMONDAY: AUD – Trade Balance and RBA Rate Statement.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: USD – Trade Balance.\r\nTUESDAY: CAD – Trade Balance.\r\nTUESDAY: NZD – Dairy Auction Prices.\r\nTUESDAY: EUR – Words of wisdom from Mario Draghi (ECB)\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: BOJ – Monetary Policy Statement &amp; Press Conference.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: USD – FOMC Meeting Minutes.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: CAD – Employment data and words from Stephen Poloz (BOC).\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMY THOUGHTS ON THE NEWS ITEMS THIS COMING WEEK:\r\n\r\nThe ISM data in the U.S. will be eagerly awaited on Tuesday. If that comes in weak, the cries for a rate hike in late 2016 will gather momentum\r\n\r\nI am looking forward to hearing what Draghi has to say, I would not like to be in his shoes this weekend pouring out his cornflakes. If the U.S. really is on a slowdown the Eurozone is going into deep, deep, (deeper than Mark Carneys hole with his JCB in) recession, absolutely no doubt about it. If this whole event gathers traction it will make 2009 look like the tea party from Alice in Wonderland.\r\n\r\nEqually, the BOJ comments will be interesting, however, to round off the week we have “Ostrich Man” (Stephen Poloz), “everything is great in Canada, but let me just bury my head in the sand” to contend with. My ars* its great, open your ears and listen…. He will be delivering a few choice words Friday afternoon after the employment data is released on the same morning. There will be a rate cut in Canada sooner rather than later, Federal Election or not later this month. I have been saying this for weeks now, and the U.S. reaction to the NFP data will have Poloz sitting on his “throne” (toilet) most of the weekend. He has a dilemma…he has to chose between doing his job or sucking up to Stephen Harper, Canadian Prime Minister prior to the election. His language could give clues, that\'s if you can hear him through sand.\r\n\r\nThis week the on-going reaction to the NFP data will drive the Forex Market. Whether we believe it should or not is totally irrelevant, but believe me it will. This continual news item of a FED rate hike has been with us for 6 months now and I for one am sick of hearing about it. I cannot stomach ditherers.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMY KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS THIS WEEK FOR USD MAJORS<b>:\r\n</b>In this section I have as usual kept my charts as minimalist as possible. All readers regardless of level of experience should be able to follow my thoughts from my comments to the levels on the charts with ease.\r\n\r\nEUR/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.1192\r\n\r\nAfter all the shenanigans of last Friday, we closed last week just one pip higher than the previous week. Moves in the EUR/USD are going to be watched very closely now, even more so than usual as this pair is going to be really sensitive to breaking news. Do not get me wrong, it always has been sensitive, but now I am expecting stupid moves for no apparent reason like we saw in 2009.\r\n\r\nWe also have to consider the Eurozone reactions, it’s not all about the USA, and the Eurozone has its own issues to overcome. However, in the Eurozone they do not overcome they prefer to “can-kick“ issues / problems, hoping it all goes away. But there are issues and ramifications from NFP that the Eurozone will have to consider moving forward and this will create volatility.\r\n\r\nAfter NFP the EUR/USD rallied about 150 pips and stopped at 1.1325. I see this level as resistance now with 1.1090 being support.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURUSDDaily02102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6558\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURUSDDaily02102015.png\" alt=\"EURUSDDaily02102015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.5176\r\n\r\nThe cable ended the week just 6 pips higher than the previous weekly close. Cable looks weak. The GBP cross rates look weak. I hate trading cable; it is the master of false moves. I feel a bit worried writing that in spite of everything that happened last week the future of cable is lower, more like 1.4000 than 1.5000.\r\n\r\nThe cross rate effect could weigh in quite heavily on movements in the GBP/USD.\r\n\r\nThe highly publicized GBP/CAD head and shoulders measured move triggered late last week. It is a potential move of 1,000 pips lower<strong>. </strong>The move lower started in the last hour of North American trading. At that time we have totally illiquid markets, with very light volumes that promote exacerbated moves for such a thinly traded pair. Nevertheless, it moved, but the jury is still out, until at least the European close on Monday on whether it\'s a legitimate confirmed move.\r\n\r\nActivity in the EUR/GBP will become quite twitchy, as the Eurozone issues start to weigh in more. As the EUR sells off the EUR/GBP will rise placing upward pressure on GBP/USD and should the GBP/CAD drop off as a result of the continued out of nowhere CAD strength coming into the market, the GBP/USD could tread water as cross-rate effects could nullify any moves. Even if the oil price drops which, I think it will, and the CAD weakens as a result, the trading volumes in the EUR/GBP are so great on its own it could still create the GBP/USD appearance of just treading water.\r\n\r\nWhat I am saying here is the GBP/USD may not be a straightforward a trade as you might first believe, having said that I do think that it will be downside pressured.\r\n\r\nSupport is big at 1.5085 and resistance is good at 1.5250.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPUSDWeekly02102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6559\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPUSDWeekly02102015.png\" alt=\"GBPUSDWeekly02102015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.7028\r\n\r\nThis pair failed to break higher. This has surprised me a great deal. I have resisted for a week or so now from trading this pair to the short side, as I believed we were going to see a move to 0.7200, from where I was ready to short.\r\n\r\nWe are in a range from support at 0.6940 to resistance at 0.7050 and then 0.7110.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AUDUSDDaily02102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6557\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AUDUSDDaily02102015.png\" alt=\"AUDUSDDaily02102015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.6416\r\n\r\nThis pair has a very similar story to the Aussie. I had a short for a couple of days last week, took +30 pips on it and closed it just prior to NFP. I will re-short through the PREMIUM SERVICE early this week. Our levels are clearly defined, as are my outer levels from the FOMC Press Conference day last month.\r\n\r\nSupport is at 0.6350 then at 0.6240, with resistance at 0.6465 and 0.6490.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/NZDUSDDaily02102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6560\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/NZDUSDDaily02102015.png\" alt=\"NZDUSDDaily02102015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.3151\r\n\r\nI am long this pair and not completely comfortable at the moment, the GBP/CAD sell off into the close pulled the USD/CAD to close at its lows last Friday. I am not a happy teddy with this one.\r\n\r\nLonger-term the BOC will cut rates. Oil will fall as demand shrinks even more as confidence fails around the globe. The Canadian economy is on the brink; in fact it’s already in what is now termed a “technical recession”. Yup…. you cannot say DEFLATION anymore, its now called “disinflation” and RECESSION is now referred to as a “technical RECESSION” by the BOC. The use of the term Happy Holidays was bad enough for me, this is now just utter bulls**t.\r\n\r\nLonger-term I believe that the USD/CAD is going above the recent failed breakout level of 1.3460. I see at least a move in the medium term to 1.4000. There is even a longer-term “cup and handle” that has a projected measured move of 1.6000.\r\n\r\nIn the present, we cannot rule out a test of the bull-bear line in the sand of 1.3160. However, that is the worst-case scenario. It is the CAD$ reaction to oil that will be key to its near-term moves.\r\n\r\nSupport is at 1.3110 and resistance at 1.3230. A break above 1.3230 could see a re-test of the break out level once again.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCADDaily02102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6561\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCADDaily02102015.png\" alt=\"USDCADDaily02102015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF - Weekly Closing Price: 0.9714\r\n\r\nI am long this pair. We were so close to the breakout on Friday just ahead of NFP, and then we had a +150 pip drop. I am a little concerned that as the EUR/USD sold off into the close that this pair did not close around 0.9750.\r\n\r\nFundamentally, this pair is going back above parity and it should be taking all the CHF pairs with it. Do not rule out Thomas Jordan (SNB) coming out to play to manipulate the EUR/CHF. They want this pair above 1.1000 as a minimum and it is struggling around 1.0900. Should the SNB intervene, the CHF will sell-off and my long trades will be very profitable.\r\n\r\nThe bottom line is that the SNB has sat back for over 6 months, unless we see Eurozone action the SNB may act.\r\n\r\nBack to the present, this pair is supported at 0.9650 and 0.9580 and resistance now is at 0.9750 and 0.9820.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCHFDaily02102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6562\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCHFDaily02102015.png\" alt=\"USDCHFDaily02102015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY - Weekly Closing Price: 119.88\r\n\r\nBeing sensitive to equity prices is should not be a surprise to note that last Friday this pair was as high as 120.40 and as low as 118.65. A wild ride and when you consider it pulled back off its lows to close just below 120.00 it was quite a day. All JPY pairs except the CHF/JPY basically had the same roller coaster ride.\r\n\r\nThe BOJ are front and centre this week with a policy statement, this could be fun. The range mentioned above is the support and resistance to take note of moving forward this week.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDJPYDaily02102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6563\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDJPYDaily02102015.png\" alt=\"USDJPYDaily02102015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n1.3: LOOKING SIDEWAYS (FOR GOOD MEASURE):\r\n\r\nIf ever there was a time to keep your trading a little lighter and your position sizes a little smaller it is now.\r\n\r\nWe have uncertainty.\r\n\r\nWe have a FED that dithers.\r\n\r\nWe have a world market taken by surprise by the NFP numbers.\r\n\r\nWe also have the EUROZONE moving back to the edge again (see later in Section 2.)\r\n\r\nWhether or not we believe the hype is not important. There are “fat cats” on Wall Street who are loving this moment, as they can visualize the FED backstopping equity prices for another prolonged period. The “fat cats” can get fatter, if they can encourage panic, and fear.\r\n\r\nPanic / Fear and Greed all mean uncertainty and volatility.\r\n\r\nTo me as a seasoned trader it tells me to slow down, cut back, and wait a little to let the dust settle. There are no prizes in Forex for guessing, the market takes no prisoners, it is 100% totally unforgiving.\r\n\r\nI have nothing else to say here except be careful. The markets are now going to be driven by news events and quotations correctly or incorrectly attributed to someone and both FUNDAMENTALS and TECHNICALS in these situations mean nothing.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n	<li><strong> WHAT’S ON MY MIND:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>THE FORGOTTEN STORY…</strong>\r\n<strong> THE EUROZONE IS DRIFTING</strong>\r\n<strong> BACK TO THE PRECIPICE ONCE AGAIN</strong></p>\r\nThe Eurozone is the forgotten story. Everything has been FOMC this, FOMC that, will Yellen do this or should Yellen do that.\r\n\r\nWhilst all the FOMC stuff has been going on, the Eurozone has been drifting. Events that would have had airtime on TV and column space in the written media have really for want of a better word been minimalized.\r\n\r\nGreece is no longer trendy; the American commentators do not understand the culture. So instead of trying to understand it, the approach is just to ignore it…. It might go away. Sadly, just like the GOP would love Donald Trump to go away so they could have a “YES” man controlling the polls, he isn’t and he won’t, and nor will Greece.\r\n\r\nMy Eurozone headlines are: -\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>GREECE</li>\r\n	<li>PORTUGAL</li>\r\n	<li>SPAIN</li>\r\n	<li>GERMANY SLOWDOWN</li>\r\n	<li>RECESSION and DEFLATION</li>\r\n	<li>VOLKSWAGEN</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThe above five topics have Mario hoping, wishing, pondering, panicking and probably praying all at once. Oh, I forgot possibly drinking as well. I know I would be, if I were carrying these issues.\r\n\r\nLet me be brief about each point this week and over the coming weeks I will place more flesh on the bone: -\r\n\r\nGREECE:\r\n\r\nAlexis Tsipras (Syriza Party) was re-elected as Prime Minister. He pledged to the EU that he would implement, deficit-reduction measures including tax rises, changes to pensions and social welfare cuts in return for an €86 billion bailout. He has to persuade the Eurogroup later this month that the terms of the bailout are being met and are on time. His initial meeting to show progress was originally set for Monday October 5<sup>th</sup>, but I cannot confirm the date, or whether it has been re-scheduled due to the recent elections. Maybe it’s just no longer on the calendar.\r\n\r\nThe IMF has stated that unless there is an “explicit and concrete” agreement on debt relief for Greece that it may refuse to be a party to the bailout. Germany does NOT want any Greek debt relief.\r\n\r\nCulturally, Tsipras (always the chancer) believes that an election win will give him some clout when dealing with his creditors to negotiate debt relief and less onerous austerity measures. This is at complete odds with Germany and the European Institutions that imposed the draconian measures on Greece in the name of fiscal discipline. Basically, the bailout terms gives the Eurozone a host of powers over Greece when it comes to policymaking.\r\n\r\nWe haven’t heard from “the pit-bull” recently but Schaeuble is bound to be on the wires very soon scathing about the fact the Greeks will not have completed the reforms agreed to in the bailout within the timescales allocated.\r\n\r\nThe Germans with their rush to get the bailout through never got the IMF on side to hold the privatization trust fund to supposedly hold Greek assets worth about €50 billion.\r\n\r\nYes, it’s another Eurozone mess. I cannot find out if Monday’s initially proposed meeting to show its creditors what has been achieved is on / off or re-scheduled.\r\n\r\nBy November 15<sup>th</sup> if the actions taken by Greece are in accordance with the bailout they get some €2 billion in dosh!\r\n\r\nThe last we heard from Jeroen Dijsselbloem (Eurogroup leader) was that if Greece did not follow the detail of the agreed bailout to the letter, there would be no tranches payable to them. I have no doubt that the pit-bull would echo those comments, and if he had the power he would follow through.\r\n\r\nSomehow I just think the can kicking will start all over again. This story will start to grow very soon.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nPORTUGAL:\r\n\r\nIt’s election time. The centre-right party led by Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho is running neck and neck with the socialist party and political stalemate looks the likely outcome.\r\n\r\nWhen coming to power in 2011, if you recall, the government was taken to task for imposing tax hikes, and making cuts in salaries, pensions and public services. The Socialist opposition led by Antonio Costa, claimed the austerity measures taken went way too far beyond the terms of the €78 billion bailout deal agreed with the prior socialist government.\r\n\r\nIt is therefore quite remarkable that Coelho is still in the running to form a new government. He has had a tough period in charge with a record 17% unemployment level, 4% of the population has emigrated since 2011 and continual strikes and mass demonstrations have at times paralyzed Lisbon. How the hell has this guy stayed in the running? Costa must be weak, you would think.\r\n\r\nThe numbers on practically everything have improved of late, unemployment this year is down 4% and Coelho claims his tough measures are working now for the good of the country.\r\n\r\nThe problem is electoral stalemate. Uncertainty and instability are created, and whilst both parties believe it or not have very similar manifestos, the cores of each party are very diverse.\r\n\r\nIf a stalemate election result creates fragility moving forward this could push Portugal backwards once again. Within the Eurozone Portugal is famous for having one of the worst debt to GDP ratios at 130%.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nSPAIN:\r\n\r\nPrime Minister Mariano Rajoy has called a Christmas election for December 20<sup>th</sup>. There are massive fragmentation risks in Spain, with the separatist alliances winning popularity in the Catalan regional elections.\r\n\r\nThere will no doubt be demonstrations for Basque independence etc all the time during the campaign and the old chestnuts about bribery and corruption inside the Spanish government will no doubt come to the forefront once again.\r\n\r\nIt is very uncertain what might happen in December, the only certainty is that Spain looks very fragmented at the moment.\r\n\r\nMore uncertainty.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGERMANY SLOWING DOWN and VOLKSWAGEN:\r\n\r\nThe old powerhouse of the Eurozone is starting to suffer, production and employment is starting to pinch. At the same time the VW revelations could not have been brought to the forefront at a worse time. Allegedly many parties have known about the German “fiddle” for years. How did this remain undercover for so long is what I want to know. I will also bet there are other car manufacturers with twitchy bottoms as I have no doubt VW is NOT alone.\r\n\r\nIn any event, these pieces of news come at the wrong time, not that there is ever a good time.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nEUROZONE RECESSION and DEFLATION:\r\n\r\nThe majority of Europe is bouncing on the thin line between recession and growth.\r\n\r\nLike many other areas of the world, the Eurozone still suffers from DEFLATION. As I have stated on so many occasions, the central banker’s around the globe can feed an economy. They can use extraordinary measures to support their economies; they can almost pull a rabbit out of a hat. However the one thing that no one central banker has been able to do is find a possible solution for DEFLATION. It is the “Holy Grail” of central banking and right now there is more chance of “Hell freezing over” than a central banker finding the cure for DEFLATION.\r\n\r\nYikes…\r\n\r\nSo it’s back to the starting line once again for Mario Draghi. Yes, he has been here before but now he has several fronts on which to focus. The uncertainty of general elections may on the face of things be small fry, with new people around the table; a different style can cause friction. Tsipras is a classic example of this on how to ruffle the feathers of the cheese and wine drinking chappies and chapettes in Brussels.\r\n\r\nFactor into Draghi’s melting pot the U.S. jobs data and he must be thinking the old story, should the USA get a cold, the Eurozone gets the flu.\r\n\r\nMore QE is on the cards for the Eurozone. It is the only supportive action that he can take.\r\n\r\nHow the Eurogroup reacts to Greece will be pivotal. This time, Tsipras through no doing of his own may get a moral victory over the Eurogroup as the fragility of the Eurozone can not afford to be rocked or rather pushed over the edge of the cliff.\r\n\r\nThis action in my opinion will drive the EUR/USD towards parity.\r\n\r\nVery interesting times ahead.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:\r\n</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n3.1: SUMMARY OF YEAR TO DATE PERFORMANCE - 2015:\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">PREMIUM SERVICE – COST INCOME ANALYSIS (USD):</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">PROFITS FROM TRADE SET-UPS – to October 4th 2015.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">MICRO LOT TRADER - 522 trades cost to trade = $52.20\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 522 trades = <strong>$875.10</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">MINI LOT TRADER - 522 trades cost to trade = $522.00\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 522 trades = <strong>$8,751.00</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">STANDARD LOT TRADER - 522 trades cost to trade = $5,220.00\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 522 trades = <strong>$87,510.00</strong></p>\r\n3.2: PREMIUM SERVICE – TRADE SUMMARIES MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/PS-PROFITS1-04102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6547\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/PS-PROFITS1-04102015.png\" alt=\"PS PROFITS1 04102015\" width=\"447\" height=\"418\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/PS-PROFITS2-04102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6548\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/PS-PROFITS2-04102015.png\" alt=\"PS PROFITS2 04102015\" width=\"457\" height=\"411\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) SUBSCRIBER CONTENT:\r\n</strong>(The following section is additional data, thoughts, and ideas exclusively for PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) subscribers)</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n4.1: THE PREMIUM SERVICE – TRADING REVIEW:\r\n\r\nI have started, albeit with maybe not my best foot forward, to place trades in line with my FUNDAMENTAL TRADING PLAN.\r\n\r\nAre the NFP numbers a problem to my plan?\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, only if the FED were to re-introduce QE. Then I think maybe I have a problem. Remember my plan is based on central bank monetary policy and yes the FED dominates in this respect, but rate hikes are still coming, they may just be delayed. So, from my perspective I am still at the starting blocks, well in fact, I jump started.\r\n\r\nI am now in the CHF pairs and sticking with them. The CHF/JPY is a slippery little bugger; it is sensitive to GOLD, the JPY (through equity prices) and the CHF. Last Friday, it followed GOLD then the JPY…. it is slippery, a double whammy in the wrong direction. Volumes are still thin and I still think that equities will come under pressure in the medium term, but for now its part of my plan. The GBP/CHF I will re-introduce after I see how cable moves.\r\n\r\nI will hopefully be adding the following trades back over the course of the week; NZD/USD and EUR/GBP shorts, with maybe the AUD/USD as well after Glenn Stevens (RBA) show early this week.\r\n\r\nOverall, I think that for the early part of next week, things may be a little quiet as the dust settles down and the other markets are allowed to digest.\r\n\r\nThere is a lot of headline news out there that is sensationalizing data. This is just sales talk and I am staying calm.\r\n\r\nU.S. commentators, in particular, have been bullying up the fact that the U.S. economy is in great shape, now they want to rain on the parade.\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>The U.S. is totally dysfunctional but it gets by, how, it beggars belief.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>The Eurozone is run by a bunch of numpties that you could lock in the Heineken brewery or Scottish distillery on a Friday night and go back on Monday morning to find them all stone cold sober, but the Eurozone with all it’s can-kicking still rather surprisingly gets by.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>The UK has Mark Carney (BOE) continually saying things are good for the UK, only to be eating his words within days of opening his mouth.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThey all get by, God only knows how but they survive.\r\n\r\nYes, Americans shout louder so they are heard, my God you only have to go to Texas to get that, it doesn’t mean he who shouts loudest is correct. So ignore the TV pundits arguing for TV face time.\r\n\r\nIt is a bunch of accountants, who think that fizzy drinks are cool that are making the decisions. They are not easily swayed. I used an oil tanker scenario earlier in the blog to paint a picture of their mindset.\r\n\r\nThe cross-rate trades are too volatile for me at the moment; I only like trading them directionally not in a chop fest.\r\n\r\nI had big hopes for October but the NFP data has placed a dent in my overall plan, but there are still opportunities but we need to exercise patience for a little while.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.2: MAJOR TRADING PAIRS WITH LONGER-TERM MATCHING TRENDS:\r\n\r\n(The following currency pairs have Short Term (DAILY), Medium Term (WEEKLY) and Long Term (MONTHLY) charts all trending in the same direction).\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/PS-TRENDING-PAIRS-04102105.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6556\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/PS-TRENDING-PAIRS-04102105.png\" alt=\"PS TRENDING PAIRS 04102105\" width=\"500\" height=\"619\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.3: THE PREMIUM SERVICE - LIVE TRADES ARE:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/PS-LIVE-TRADES-04102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6555\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/PS-LIVE-TRADES-04102015.png\" alt=\"PS LIVE TRADES 04102015\" width=\"716\" height=\"566\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.4: THE PREMIUM SERVICE – LIMIT ORDER TRADES ARE:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/PS-LIMIT-ORDERS-04102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6554\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/PS-LIMIT-ORDERS-04102015.png\" alt=\"PS LIMIT ORDERS 04102015\" width=\"702\" height=\"446\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.5: POTENTIAL TRADES - WHAT PAIRS / CHARTS AM I LOOKING AT?\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nBelow are a few pairs that have caught my eye. As I have been saying straight after NFP is not always the best time to jump in. Usually it is best to wait a couple of days as the recent moves have been exaggerated due to NFP and to identify possible set ups can be misleading.\r\n\r\nHaving said that I have added a few charts below that have opportunities. There are no comments other than those contained on the charts if applicable.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AUDCAD-DAILY-CHART.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6571\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AUDCAD-DAILY-CHART-1024x514.png\" alt=\"AUDCAD - DAILY CHART\" width=\"1024\" height=\"514\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AUDCHF-DAILY-04102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6570\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AUDCHF-DAILY-04102015-1024x514.png\" alt=\"AUDCHF DAILY 04102015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"514\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURCAD-DAILY-04102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6569\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURCAD-DAILY-04102015-1024x514.png\" alt=\"EURCAD DAILY 04102015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"514\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURGBP-DAILY-04102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6568\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURGBP-DAILY-04102015-1024x514.png\" alt=\"EURGBP DAILY 04102015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"514\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPCAD-DAILY-04102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6567\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPCAD-DAILY-04102015-1024x514.png\" alt=\"GBPCAD DAILY 04102015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"514\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPCHF-DAILY-04102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6566\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPCHF-DAILY-04102015-1024x514.png\" alt=\"GBPCHF DAILY 04102015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"514\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPNZD-WEEKLY-04102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6565\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPNZD-WEEKLY-04102015-1024x514.png\" alt=\"GBPNZD WEEKLY 04102015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"514\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n	<li><strong> MY FINAL THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nOVERVIEW OF TRADING TIPS &amp; THOUGHTS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD:\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, patience is now the key trait to adopt moving forward. Do not be too hasty adding trades; let the dust settle following NFP.\r\n\r\nAs stated earlier, if ever there was a time for trading smaller position sizes to allow for a wider stop to cope with volatility, that time is now.\r\n\r\nThere are market-moving events and the markets have decided with the initial knee-jerk reaction that we are at the crossroads of change. The FOMC under Chair Yellen has said nothing. Be calm, be patient.\r\n\r\nIf we remain flexible as traders, we stand a good chance of reaching a point when we can achieve longevity in trading and provide an income.\r\n\r\nTake care.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nhttps://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\r\nBLOG REF#74','I BET YELLEN WISHED SHE’D HIKED RATES  LAST MONTH NOW!','','publish','open','closed','','i-bet-yellen-wished-shed-hiked-rates-last-month-now','','','2015-10-03 15:46:25','2015-10-03 20:46:25','',0,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?post_type=member_posts&#038;p=6572',0,'member_posts','',0),(6573,1,'2015-10-03 15:23:45','2015-10-03 20:23:45','<p style=\"text-align: center;\">THE PREMIUM SERVICE\r\nfrom the\r\nWEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU\r\n“The Home of Single Lot Trading”</p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li><strong> THE VIEW FROM MY TRADE DESK:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nLOOKING BACKWARDS, FORWARDS &amp; SIDEWAYS (FOR GOOD MEASURE) AT THE FX MARKET:\r\n\r\n1.1: LOOKING BACKWARDS:\r\n\r\nOne big event dominated the news last week, which was of course U.S. Non-Farm payrolls, expected was 201k and we saw 142k. That was a big miss and the prior two months data was also revised down by 59k.\r\n\r\nWithin minutes of this number being released there was a sea of red all over my charts and twitter feeds were out looking for the Fed to backstop equities again via the re-introduction of Quantitative Easing (QE). The “sky is falling”, doom and gloom abound, the ECB would be on for more QE, the BOJ likewise and Carney at the BOE, well, God only knows what he’s going to say. Whatever it is he has to say, I would suggest that you do not believe him. I would also check to see if he has a JCB at the back of his office to dig himself a hole with.\r\n\r\nMoving on….\r\n\r\nNow, lets just take a step back.\r\n\r\nMonetary policy by central banks is not akin to a “knee-jerk” practice. Central bank monetary policy is like a huge oil tanker trying to turn around whilst out at sea. It takes about 5 miles to stop, then start turning, it’s all done very slowly and precisely. Central banks do not make up their monetary policy on the back of a cigarette packet (maybe Mark Carney does at the BOE?).\r\n\r\nPolicy is longer-term…it is conservative with a big C. These people who set policy and sit on these committees are generally dull and boring. An exciting day for an accountant is if the weatherman predicts rain and the sun shines. Basically, they are all accountants; they will never stick their necks out to make a decision that could in anyway be seen as innovative, courageous or revolutionary.\r\n\r\nWith this as a backdrop do you honestly believe that they will make a decision to alter policy on one months data?\r\n\r\nDo you not think they base policy more on cumulative results?\r\n\r\nI am saying that a rate hike is not off the table. It’s now back onto the timing once again. Time will tell, but I can assure you that Janet Yellen probably wished that she had hiked rates last month.\r\n\r\nMy reason for saying that I bet she wished she had already acted and not dithered is quite simple. At least today, she would have something put by for a rainy day. Right now with the children on Wall Street running around like headless chickens, she has nothing. I just cannot believe I read about QE. QE what number is it now, “QE IV” the son of QE “the FED chair bites back”?\r\n\r\nJanet Yellen’s dithering has caused this uncertainty, the very thing she claims she wants to avoid in the markets. Some will argue that the FOMC nailed the decision not to hike last month. Personally, I see it as dithering; we are talking about 0.25% after 7 years of zero, not a 3% rise, after all is the USA not the biggest economy in the world, you would think it could handle 0.25%. Are things really that fragile?\r\n\r\nFundamentally, there is a problem with the fact the data was poor. However, although I believe the FOMC will not react to just one month’s data, the fact that the numbers for the previous two months were revised lower, in my opinion was a killer to a rate hike later this month. The FOMC will consider much more than what we were presented with last Friday. However, in real terms all the data was pretty dire, from the hourly average earnings growth – which was flat and the participation rate, which is now at its lowest level for 38 years\r\n\r\nBTW, in 2015 why the hell do we still have revisions?\r\n\r\nIs it not possible for the greatest country on earth to manage this counting process more efficiently?\r\n\r\nWhy do we wait months to hear of these revisions?\r\n\r\nIf NFP is that important it should be delivered professionally, which in my opinion is NOT the way it is done today.\r\n\r\nGetting back on point….\r\n\r\nWhere do we go from here?\r\n\r\nNon Manufacturing ISM data is due this week. It has to be a blow out number. If not I would be very surprised to see an October move in the FED funds rate.\r\n\r\nIf this number is low, confidence will be low moving forward and this could be the catalyst for a rather dour winter. It is going to be so difficult for the FED to “lift-off”, in my opinion, they missed the moment and the opportunity was last month. As mentioned last week and again just above, the frightening aspect of all this for me is that we are only talking about 0.25%, you would think it was a 3% hike in discussion.\r\n\r\nTime will tell what the outcome is going to be, but as stated already, I think QE calls and low rates forever are rather premature.\r\n\r\nIn the name of sanity if the FED moved policy on every bit of economic data they would be as dysfunctional as the politicians on Capitol Hill.\r\n\r\nI really do think the moment was missed and to “lift-off” now is difficult. The FOMC really have created a problem for themselves that they should never have had in the first place. Dithering has created huge uncertainty.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n1.2: LOOKING FORWARD:\r\n\r\nMAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:\r\n\r\n(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market other than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to <a href=\"http://www.forexfactory.com\">www.forexfactory.com</a> and <a href=\"http://www.tradingeconomics.com\">www.tradingeconomics.com</a> for a more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).\r\nSUNDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMi.\r\nMONDAY: AUD – Trade Balance and RBA Rate Statement.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: USD – Trade Balance.\r\nTUESDAY: CAD – Trade Balance.\r\nTUESDAY: NZD – Dairy Auction Prices.\r\nTUESDAY: EUR – Words of wisdom from Mario Draghi (ECB)\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: BOJ – Monetary Policy Statement &amp; Press Conference.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: USD – FOMC Meeting Minutes.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: CAD – Employment data and words from Stephen Poloz (BOC).\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMY THOUGHTS ON THE NEWS ITEMS THIS COMING WEEK:\r\n\r\nThe ISM data in the U.S. will be eagerly awaited on Tuesday. If that comes in weak, the cries for a rate hike in late 2016 will gather momentum\r\n\r\nI am looking forward to hearing what Draghi has to say, I would not like to be in his shoes this weekend pouring out his cornflakes. If the U.S. really is on a slowdown the Eurozone is going into deep, deep, (deeper than Mark Carneys hole with his JCB in) recession, absolutely no doubt about it. If this whole event gathers traction it will make 2009 look like the tea party from Alice in Wonderland.\r\n\r\nEqually, the BOJ comments will be interesting, however, to round off the week we have “Ostrich Man” (Stephen Poloz), “everything is great in Canada, but let me just bury my head in the sand” to contend with. My ars* its great, open your ears and listen…. He will be delivering a few choice words Friday afternoon after the employment data is released on the same morning. There will be a rate cut in Canada sooner rather than later, Federal Election or not later this month. I have been saying this for weeks now, and the U.S. reaction to the NFP data will have Poloz sitting on his “throne” (toilet) most of the weekend. He has a dilemma…he has to chose between doing his job or sucking up to Stephen Harper, Canadian Prime Minister prior to the election. His language could give clues, that\'s if you can hear him through sand.\r\n\r\nThis week the on-going reaction to the NFP data will drive the Forex Market. Whether we believe it should or not is totally irrelevant, but believe me it will. This continual news item of a FED rate hike has been with us for 6 months now and I for one am sick of hearing about it. I cannot stomach ditherers.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMY KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS THIS WEEK FOR USD MAJORS<b>:\r\n</b>In this section I have as usual kept my charts as minimalist as possible. All readers regardless of level of experience should be able to follow my thoughts from my comments to the levels on the charts with ease.\r\n\r\nEUR/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.1192\r\n\r\nAfter all the shenanigans of last Friday, we closed last week just one pip higher than the previous week. Moves in the EUR/USD are going to be watched very closely now, even more so than usual as this pair is going to be really sensitive to breaking news. Do not get me wrong, it always has been sensitive, but now I am expecting stupid moves for no apparent reason like we saw in 2009.\r\n\r\nWe also have to consider the Eurozone reactions, it’s not all about the USA, and the Eurozone has its own issues to overcome. However, in the Eurozone they do not overcome they prefer to “can-kick“ issues / problems, hoping it all goes away. But there are issues and ramifications from NFP that the Eurozone will have to consider moving forward and this will create volatility.\r\n\r\nAfter NFP the EUR/USD rallied about 150 pips and stopped at 1.1325. I see this level as resistance now with 1.1090 being support.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURUSDDaily02102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6558\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURUSDDaily02102015.png\" alt=\"EURUSDDaily02102015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.5176\r\n\r\nThe cable ended the week just 6 pips higher than the previous weekly close. Cable looks weak. The GBP cross rates look weak. I hate trading cable; it is the master of false moves. I feel a bit worried writing that in spite of everything that happened last week the future of cable is lower, more like 1.4000 than 1.5000.\r\n\r\nThe cross rate effect could weigh in quite heavily on movements in the GBP/USD.\r\n\r\nThe highly publicized GBP/CAD head and shoulders measured move triggered late last week. It is a potential move of 1,000 pips lower<strong>. </strong>The move lower started in the last hour of North American trading. At that time we have totally illiquid markets, with very light volumes that promote exacerbated moves for such a thinly traded pair. Nevertheless, it moved, but the jury is still out, until at least the European close on Monday on whether it\'s a legitimate confirmed move.\r\n\r\nActivity in the EUR/GBP will become quite twitchy, as the Eurozone issues start to weigh in more. As the EUR sells off the EUR/GBP will rise placing upward pressure on GBP/USD and should the GBP/CAD drop off as a result of the continued out of nowhere CAD strength coming into the market, the GBP/USD could tread water as cross-rate effects could nullify any moves. Even if the oil price drops which, I think it will, and the CAD weakens as a result, the trading volumes in the EUR/GBP are so great on its own it could still create the GBP/USD appearance of just treading water.\r\n\r\nWhat I am saying here is the GBP/USD may not be a straightforward a trade as you might first believe, having said that I do think that it will be downside pressured.\r\n\r\nSupport is big at 1.5085 and resistance is good at 1.5250.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPUSDWeekly02102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6559\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPUSDWeekly02102015.png\" alt=\"GBPUSDWeekly02102015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.7028\r\n\r\nThis pair failed to break higher. This has surprised me a great deal. I have resisted for a week or so now from trading this pair to the short side, as I believed we were going to see a move to 0.7200, from where I was ready to short.\r\n\r\nWe are in a range from support at 0.6940 to resistance at 0.7050 and then 0.7110.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AUDUSDDaily02102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6557\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AUDUSDDaily02102015.png\" alt=\"AUDUSDDaily02102015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.6416\r\n\r\nThis pair has a very similar story to the Aussie. I had a short for a couple of days last week, took +30 pips on it and closed it just prior to NFP. I will re-short through the PREMIUM SERVICE early this week. Our levels are clearly defined, as are my outer levels from the FOMC Press Conference day last month.\r\n\r\nSupport is at 0.6350 then at 0.6240, with resistance at 0.6465 and 0.6490.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/NZDUSDDaily02102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6560\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/NZDUSDDaily02102015.png\" alt=\"NZDUSDDaily02102015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.3151\r\n\r\nI am long this pair and not completely comfortable at the moment, the GBP/CAD sell off into the close pulled the USD/CAD to close at its lows last Friday. I am not a happy teddy with this one.\r\n\r\nLonger-term the BOC will cut rates. Oil will fall as demand shrinks even more as confidence fails around the globe. The Canadian economy is on the brink; in fact it’s already in what is now termed a “technical recession”. Yup…. you cannot say DEFLATION anymore, its now called “disinflation” and RECESSION is now referred to as a “technical RECESSION” by the BOC. The use of the term Happy Holidays was bad enough for me, this is now just utter bulls**t.\r\n\r\nLonger-term I believe that the USD/CAD is going above the recent failed breakout level of 1.3460. I see at least a move in the medium term to 1.4000. There is even a longer-term “cup and handle” that has a projected measured move of 1.6000.\r\n\r\nIn the present, we cannot rule out a test of the bull-bear line in the sand of 1.3160. However, that is the worst-case scenario. It is the CAD$ reaction to oil that will be key to its near-term moves.\r\n\r\nSupport is at 1.3110 and resistance at 1.3230. A break above 1.3230 could see a re-test of the break out level once again.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCADDaily02102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6561\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCADDaily02102015.png\" alt=\"USDCADDaily02102015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF - Weekly Closing Price: 0.9714\r\n\r\nI am long this pair. We were so close to the breakout on Friday just ahead of NFP, and then we had a +150 pip drop. I am a little concerned that as the EUR/USD sold off into the close that this pair did not close around 0.9750.\r\n\r\nFundamentally, this pair is going back above parity and it should be taking all the CHF pairs with it. Do not rule out Thomas Jordan (SNB) coming out to play to manipulate the EUR/CHF. They want this pair above 1.1000 as a minimum and it is struggling around 1.0900. Should the SNB intervene, the CHF will sell-off and my long trades will be very profitable.\r\n\r\nThe bottom line is that the SNB has sat back for over 6 months, unless we see Eurozone action the SNB may act.\r\n\r\nBack to the present, this pair is supported at 0.9650 and 0.9580 and resistance now is at 0.9750 and 0.9820.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCHFDaily02102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6562\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCHFDaily02102015.png\" alt=\"USDCHFDaily02102015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY - Weekly Closing Price: 119.88\r\n\r\nBeing sensitive to equity prices is should not be a surprise to note that last Friday this pair was as high as 120.40 and as low as 118.65. A wild ride and when you consider it pulled back off its lows to close just below 120.00 it was quite a day. All JPY pairs except the CHF/JPY basically had the same roller coaster ride.\r\n\r\nThe BOJ are front and centre this week with a policy statement, this could be fun. The range mentioned above is the support and resistance to take note of moving forward this week.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDJPYDaily02102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6563\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDJPYDaily02102015.png\" alt=\"USDJPYDaily02102015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n1.3: LOOKING SIDEWAYS (FOR GOOD MEASURE):\r\n\r\nIf ever there was a time to keep your trading a little lighter and your position sizes a little smaller it is now.\r\n\r\nWe have uncertainty.\r\n\r\nWe have a FED that dithers.\r\n\r\nWe have a world market taken by surprise by the NFP numbers.\r\n\r\nWe also have the EUROZONE moving back to the edge again (see later in Section 2.)\r\n\r\nWhether or not we believe the hype is not important. There are “fat cats” on Wall Street who are loving this moment, as they can visualize the FED backstopping equity prices for another prolonged period. The “fat cats” can get fatter, if they can encourage panic, and fear.\r\n\r\nPanic / Fear and Greed all mean uncertainty and volatility.\r\n\r\nTo me as a seasoned trader it tells me to slow down, cut back, and wait a little to let the dust settle. There are no prizes in Forex for guessing, the market takes no prisoners, it is 100% totally unforgiving.\r\n\r\nI have nothing else to say here except be careful. The markets are now going to be driven by news events and quotations correctly or incorrectly attributed to someone and both FUNDAMENTALS and TECHNICALS in these situations mean nothing.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n	<li><strong> WHAT’S ON MY MIND:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>THE FORGOTTEN STORY…</strong>\r\n<strong> THE EUROZONE IS DRIFTING</strong>\r\n<strong> BACK TO THE PRECIPICE ONCE AGAIN</strong></p>\r\nThe Eurozone is the forgotten story. Everything has been FOMC this, FOMC that, will Yellen do this or should Yellen do that.\r\n\r\nWhilst all the FOMC stuff has been going on, the Eurozone has been drifting. Events that would have had airtime on TV and column space in the written media have really for want of a better word been minimalized.\r\n\r\nGreece is no longer trendy; the American commentators do not understand the culture. So instead of trying to understand it, the approach is just to ignore it…. It might go away. Sadly, just like the GOP would love Donald Trump to go away so they could have a “YES” man controlling the polls, he isn’t and he won’t, and nor will Greece.\r\n\r\nMy Eurozone headlines are: -\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>GREECE</li>\r\n	<li>PORTUGAL</li>\r\n	<li>SPAIN</li>\r\n	<li>GERMANY SLOWDOWN</li>\r\n	<li>RECESSION and DEFLATION</li>\r\n	<li>VOLKSWAGEN</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThe above five topics have Mario hoping, wishing, pondering, panicking and probably praying all at once. Oh, I forgot possibly drinking as well. I know I would be, if I were carrying these issues.\r\n\r\nLet me be brief about each point this week and over the coming weeks I will place more flesh on the bone: -\r\n\r\nGREECE:\r\n\r\nAlexis Tsipras (Syriza Party) was re-elected as Prime Minister. He pledged to the EU that he would implement, deficit-reduction measures including tax rises, changes to pensions and social welfare cuts in return for an €86 billion bailout. He has to persuade the Eurogroup later this month that the terms of the bailout are being met and are on time. His initial meeting to show progress was originally set for Monday October 5<sup>th</sup>, but I cannot confirm the date, or whether it has been re-scheduled due to the recent elections. Maybe it’s just no longer on the calendar.\r\n\r\nThe IMF has stated that unless there is an “explicit and concrete” agreement on debt relief for Greece that it may refuse to be a party to the bailout. Germany does NOT want any Greek debt relief.\r\n\r\nCulturally, Tsipras (always the chancer) believes that an election win will give him some clout when dealing with his creditors to negotiate debt relief and less onerous austerity measures. This is at complete odds with Germany and the European Institutions that imposed the draconian measures on Greece in the name of fiscal discipline. Basically, the bailout terms gives the Eurozone a host of powers over Greece when it comes to policymaking.\r\n\r\nWe haven’t heard from “the pit-bull” recently but Schaeuble is bound to be on the wires very soon scathing about the fact the Greeks will not have completed the reforms agreed to in the bailout within the timescales allocated.\r\n\r\nThe Germans with their rush to get the bailout through never got the IMF on side to hold the privatization trust fund to supposedly hold Greek assets worth about €50 billion.\r\n\r\nYes, it’s another Eurozone mess. I cannot find out if Monday’s initially proposed meeting to show its creditors what has been achieved is on / off or re-scheduled.\r\n\r\nBy November 15<sup>th</sup> if the actions taken by Greece are in accordance with the bailout they get some €2 billion in dosh!\r\n\r\nThe last we heard from Jeroen Dijsselbloem (Eurogroup leader) was that if Greece did not follow the detail of the agreed bailout to the letter, there would be no tranches payable to them. I have no doubt that the pit-bull would echo those comments, and if he had the power he would follow through.\r\n\r\nSomehow I just think the can kicking will start all over again. This story will start to grow very soon.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nPORTUGAL:\r\n\r\nIt’s election time. The centre-right party led by Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho is running neck and neck with the socialist party and political stalemate looks the likely outcome.\r\n\r\nWhen coming to power in 2011, if you recall, the government was taken to task for imposing tax hikes, and making cuts in salaries, pensions and public services. The Socialist opposition led by Antonio Costa, claimed the austerity measures taken went way too far beyond the terms of the €78 billion bailout deal agreed with the prior socialist government.\r\n\r\nIt is therefore quite remarkable that Coelho is still in the running to form a new government. He has had a tough period in charge with a record 17% unemployment level, 4% of the population has emigrated since 2011 and continual strikes and mass demonstrations have at times paralyzed Lisbon. How the hell has this guy stayed in the running? Costa must be weak, you would think.\r\n\r\nThe numbers on practically everything have improved of late, unemployment this year is down 4% and Coelho claims his tough measures are working now for the good of the country.\r\n\r\nThe problem is electoral stalemate. Uncertainty and instability are created, and whilst both parties believe it or not have very similar manifestos, the cores of each party are very diverse.\r\n\r\nIf a stalemate election result creates fragility moving forward this could push Portugal backwards once again. Within the Eurozone Portugal is famous for having one of the worst debt to GDP ratios at 130%.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nSPAIN:\r\n\r\nPrime Minister Mariano Rajoy has called a Christmas election for December 20<sup>th</sup>. There are massive fragmentation risks in Spain, with the separatist alliances winning popularity in the Catalan regional elections.\r\n\r\nThere will no doubt be demonstrations for Basque independence etc all the time during the campaign and the old chestnuts about bribery and corruption inside the Spanish government will no doubt come to the forefront once again.\r\n\r\nIt is very uncertain what might happen in December, the only certainty is that Spain looks very fragmented at the moment.\r\n\r\nMore uncertainty.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGERMANY SLOWING DOWN and VOLKSWAGEN:\r\n\r\nThe old powerhouse of the Eurozone is starting to suffer, production and employment is starting to pinch. At the same time the VW revelations could not have been brought to the forefront at a worse time. Allegedly many parties have known about the German “fiddle” for years. How did this remain undercover for so long is what I want to know. I will also bet there are other car manufacturers with twitchy bottoms as I have no doubt VW is NOT alone.\r\n\r\nIn any event, these pieces of news come at the wrong time, not that there is ever a good time.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nEUROZONE RECESSION and DEFLATION:\r\n\r\nThe majority of Europe is bouncing on the thin line between recession and growth.\r\n\r\nLike many other areas of the world, the Eurozone still suffers from DEFLATION. As I have stated on so many occasions, the central banker’s around the globe can feed an economy. They can use extraordinary measures to support their economies; they can almost pull a rabbit out of a hat. However the one thing that no one central banker has been able to do is find a possible solution for DEFLATION. It is the “Holy Grail” of central banking and right now there is more chance of “Hell freezing over” than a central banker finding the cure for DEFLATION.\r\n\r\nYikes…\r\n\r\nSo it’s back to the starting line once again for Mario Draghi. Yes, he has been here before but now he has several fronts on which to focus. The uncertainty of general elections may on the face of things be small fry, with new people around the table; a different style can cause friction. Tsipras is a classic example of this on how to ruffle the feathers of the cheese and wine drinking chappies and chapettes in Brussels.\r\n\r\nFactor into Draghi’s melting pot the U.S. jobs data and he must be thinking the old story, should the USA get a cold, the Eurozone gets the flu.\r\n\r\nMore QE is on the cards for the Eurozone. It is the only supportive action that he can take.\r\n\r\nHow the Eurogroup reacts to Greece will be pivotal. This time, Tsipras through no doing of his own may get a moral victory over the Eurogroup as the fragility of the Eurozone can not afford to be rocked or rather pushed over the edge of the cliff.\r\n\r\nThis action in my opinion will drive the EUR/USD towards parity.\r\n\r\nVery interesting times ahead.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:\r\n</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n3.1: SUMMARY OF YEAR TO DATE PERFORMANCE - 2015:\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">PREMIUM SERVICE – COST INCOME ANALYSIS (USD):</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">PROFITS FROM TRADE SET-UPS – to October 4th 2015.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">MICRO LOT TRADER - 522 trades cost to trade = $52.20\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 522 trades = <strong>$875.10</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">MINI LOT TRADER - 522 trades cost to trade = $522.00\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 522 trades = <strong>$8,751.00</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">STANDARD LOT TRADER - 522 trades cost to trade = $5,220.00\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 522 trades = <strong>$87,510.00</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"></p>\r\n3.2: PREMIUM SERVICE – TRADE SUMMARIES MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/PS-PROFITS1-04102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6547\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/PS-PROFITS1-04102015.png\" alt=\"PS PROFITS1 04102015\" width=\"447\" height=\"418\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/PS-PROFITS2-04102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6548\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/PS-PROFITS2-04102015.png\" alt=\"PS PROFITS2 04102015\" width=\"457\" height=\"411\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) SUBSCRIBER CONTENT:\r\n</strong>(The following section is additional data, thoughts, and ideas exclusively for PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) subscribers)</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n4.1: THE PREMIUM SERVICE – TRADING REVIEW:\r\n\r\nI have started, albeit with maybe not my best foot forward, to place trades in line with my FUNDAMENTAL TRADING PLAN.\r\n\r\nAre the NFP numbers a problem to my plan?\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, only if the FED were to re-introduce QE. Then I think maybe I have a problem. Remember my plan is based on central bank monetary policy and yes the FED dominates in this respect, but rate hikes are still coming, they may just be delayed. So, from my perspective I am still at the starting blocks, well in fact, I jump started.\r\n\r\nI am now in the CHF pairs and sticking with them. The CHF/JPY is a slippery little bugger; it is sensitive to GOLD, the JPY (through equity prices) and the CHF. Last Friday, it followed GOLD then the JPY…. it is slippery, a double whammy in the wrong direction. Volumes are still thin and I still think that equities will come under pressure in the medium term, but for now its part of my plan. The GBP/CHF I will re-introduce after I see how cable moves.\r\n\r\nI will hopefully be adding the following trades back over the course of the week; NZD/USD and EUR/GBP shorts, with maybe the AUD/USD as well after Glenn Stevens (RBA) show early this week.\r\n\r\nOverall, I think that for the early part of next week, things may be a little quiet as the dust settles down and the other markets are allowed to digest.\r\n\r\nThere is a lot of headline news out there that is sensationalizing data. This is just sales talk and I am staying calm.\r\n\r\nU.S. commentators, in particular, have been bullying up the fact that the U.S. economy is in great shape, now they want to rain on the parade.\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>The U.S. is totally dysfunctional but it gets by, how, it beggars belief.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>The Eurozone is run by a bunch of numpties that you could lock in the Heineken brewery or Scottish distillery on a Friday night and go back on Monday morning to find them all stone cold sober, but the Eurozone with all it’s can-kicking still rather surprisingly gets by.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>The UK has Mark Carney (BOE) continually saying things are good for the UK, only to be eating his words within days of opening his mouth.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThey all get by, God only knows how but they survive.\r\n\r\nYes, Americans shout louder so they are heard, my God you only have to go to Texas to get that, it doesn’t mean he who shouts loudest is correct. So ignore the TV pundits arguing for TV face time.\r\n\r\nIt is a bunch of accountants, who think that fizzy drinks are cool that are making the decisions. They are not easily swayed. I used an oil tanker scenario earlier in the blog to paint a picture of their mindset.\r\n\r\nThe cross-rate trades are too volatile for me at the moment; I only like trading them directionally not in a chop fest.\r\n\r\nI had big hopes for October but the NFP data has placed a dent in my overall plan, but there are still opportunities but we need to exercise patience for a little while.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.2: MAJOR TRADING PAIRS WITH LONGER-TERM MATCHING TRENDS:\r\n\r\n(The following currency pairs have Short Term (DAILY), Medium Term (WEEKLY) and Long Term (MONTHLY) charts all trending in the same direction).\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/PS-TRENDING-PAIRS-04102105.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6556\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/PS-TRENDING-PAIRS-04102105.png\" alt=\"PS TRENDING PAIRS 04102105\" width=\"500\" height=\"619\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.3: THE PREMIUM SERVICE - LIVE TRADES ARE:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/PS-LIVE-TRADES-04102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6555\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/PS-LIVE-TRADES-04102015.png\" alt=\"PS LIVE TRADES 04102015\" width=\"716\" height=\"566\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.4: THE PREMIUM SERVICE – LIMIT ORDER TRADES ARE:\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nBelow are a few pairs that have caught my eye. As I have been saying straight after NFP is not always the best time to jump in. Usually it is best to wait a couple of days as the recent moves have been exaggerated due to NFP and to identify possible set ups can be misleading.\r\n\r\nHaving said that I have added a few charts below that have opportunities. There are no comments other than those contained on the charts if applicable.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AUDCAD-DAILY-CHART.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6571\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AUDCAD-DAILY-CHART-1024x514.png\" alt=\"AUDCAD - DAILY CHART\" width=\"1024\" height=\"514\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AUDCHF-DAILY-04102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6570\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AUDCHF-DAILY-04102015-1024x514.png\" alt=\"AUDCHF DAILY 04102015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"514\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURCAD-DAILY-04102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6569\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURCAD-DAILY-04102015-1024x514.png\" alt=\"EURCAD DAILY 04102015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"514\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURGBP-DAILY-04102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6568\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURGBP-DAILY-04102015-1024x514.png\" alt=\"EURGBP DAILY 04102015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"514\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPCAD-DAILY-04102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6567\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPCAD-DAILY-04102015-1024x514.png\" alt=\"GBPCAD DAILY 04102015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"514\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPCHF-DAILY-04102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6566\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPCHF-DAILY-04102015-1024x514.png\" alt=\"GBPCHF DAILY 04102015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"514\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPNZD-WEEKLY-04102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6565\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPNZD-WEEKLY-04102015-1024x514.png\" alt=\"GBPNZD WEEKLY 04102015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"514\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n	<li><strong> MY FINAL THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nOVERVIEW OF TRADING TIPS &amp; THOUGHTS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD:\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, patience is now the key trait to adopt moving forward. Do not be too hasty adding trades; let the dust settle following NFP.\r\n\r\nAs stated earlier, if ever there was a time for trading smaller position sizes to allow for a wider stop to cope with volatility, that time is now.\r\n\r\nThere are market-moving events and the markets have decided with the initial knee-jerk reaction that we are at the crossroads of change. The FOMC under Chair Yellen has said nothing. Be calm, be patient.\r\n\r\nIf we remain flexible as traders, we stand a good chance of reaching a point when we can achieve longevity in trading and provide an income.\r\n\r\nTake care.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nhttps://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\r\nBLOG REF#74','I BET YELLEN WISHED SHE’D HIKED RATES  LAST MONTH NOW!','','inherit','closed','closed','','6572-revision-v1','','','2015-10-03 15:23:45','2015-10-03 20:23:45','',6572,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/6572-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(6574,1,'2015-10-03 15:26:47','2015-10-03 20:26:47','<h3 style=\"text-align: center;\">THE PREMIUM SERVICE\r\nfrom the\r\nWEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU\r\n“The Home of Single Lot Trading”</h3>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li><strong> THE VIEW FROM MY TRADE DESK:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nLOOKING BACKWARDS, FORWARDS &amp; SIDEWAYS (FOR GOOD MEASURE) AT THE FX MARKET:\r\n\r\n1.1: LOOKING BACKWARDS:\r\n\r\nOne big event dominated the news last week, which was of course U.S. Non-Farm payrolls, expected was 201k and we saw 142k. That was a big miss and the prior two months data was also revised down by 59k.\r\n\r\nWithin minutes of this number being released there was a sea of red all over my charts and twitter feeds were out looking for the Fed to backstop equities again via the re-introduction of Quantitative Easing (QE). The “sky is falling”, doom and gloom abound, the ECB would be on for more QE, the BOJ likewise and Carney at the BOE, well, God only knows what he’s going to say. Whatever it is he has to say, I would suggest that you do not believe him. I would also check to see if he has a JCB at the back of his office to dig himself a hole with.\r\n\r\nMoving on….\r\n\r\nNow, lets just take a step back.\r\n\r\nMonetary policy by central banks is not akin to a “knee-jerk” practice. Central bank monetary policy is like a huge oil tanker trying to turn around whilst out at sea. It takes about 5 miles to stop, then start turning, it’s all done very slowly and precisely. Central banks do not make up their monetary policy on the back of a cigarette packet (maybe Mark Carney does at the BOE?).\r\n\r\nPolicy is longer-term…it is conservative with a big C. These people who set policy and sit on these committees are generally dull and boring. An exciting day for an accountant is if the weatherman predicts rain and the sun shines. Basically, they are all accountants; they will never stick their necks out to make a decision that could in anyway be seen as innovative, courageous or revolutionary.\r\n\r\nWith this as a backdrop do you honestly believe that they will make a decision to alter policy on one months data?\r\n\r\nDo you not think they base policy more on cumulative results?\r\n\r\nI am saying that a rate hike is not off the table. It’s now back onto the timing once again. Time will tell, but I can assure you that Janet Yellen probably wished that she had hiked rates last month.\r\n\r\nMy reason for saying that I bet she wished she had already acted and not dithered is quite simple. At least today, she would have something put by for a rainy day. Right now with the children on Wall Street running around like headless chickens, she has nothing. I just cannot believe I read about QE. QE what number is it now, “QE IV” the son of QE “the FED chair bites back”?\r\n\r\nJanet Yellen’s dithering has caused this uncertainty, the very thing she claims she wants to avoid in the markets. Some will argue that the FOMC nailed the decision not to hike last month. Personally, I see it as dithering; we are talking about 0.25% after 7 years of zero, not a 3% rise, after all is the USA not the biggest economy in the world, you would think it could handle 0.25%. Are things really that fragile?\r\n\r\nFundamentally, there is a problem with the fact the data was poor. However, although I believe the FOMC will not react to just one month’s data, the fact that the numbers for the previous two months were revised lower, in my opinion was a killer to a rate hike later this month. The FOMC will consider much more than what we were presented with last Friday. However, in real terms all the data was pretty dire, from the hourly average earnings growth – which was flat and the participation rate, which is now at its lowest level for 38 years\r\n\r\nBTW, in 2015 why the hell do we still have revisions?\r\n\r\nIs it not possible for the greatest country on earth to manage this counting process more efficiently?\r\n\r\nWhy do we wait months to hear of these revisions?\r\n\r\nIf NFP is that important it should be delivered professionally, which in my opinion is NOT the way it is done today.\r\n\r\nGetting back on point….\r\n\r\nWhere do we go from here?\r\n\r\nNon Manufacturing ISM data is due this week. It has to be a blow out number. If not I would be very surprised to see an October move in the FED funds rate.\r\n\r\nIf this number is low, confidence will be low moving forward and this could be the catalyst for a rather dour winter. It is going to be so difficult for the FED to “lift-off”, in my opinion, they missed the moment and the opportunity was last month. As mentioned last week and again just above, the frightening aspect of all this for me is that we are only talking about 0.25%, you would think it was a 3% hike in discussion.\r\n\r\nTime will tell what the outcome is going to be, but as stated already, I think QE calls and low rates forever are rather premature.\r\n\r\nIn the name of sanity if the FED moved policy on every bit of economic data they would be as dysfunctional as the politicians on Capitol Hill.\r\n\r\nI really do think the moment was missed and to “lift-off” now is difficult. The FOMC really have created a problem for themselves that they should never have had in the first place. Dithering has created huge uncertainty.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n1.2: LOOKING FORWARD:\r\n\r\nMAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:\r\n\r\n(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market other than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to <a href=\"http://www.forexfactory.com\">www.forexfactory.com</a> and <a href=\"http://www.tradingeconomics.com\">www.tradingeconomics.com</a> for a more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).\r\nSUNDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMi.\r\nMONDAY: AUD – Trade Balance and RBA Rate Statement.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: USD – Trade Balance.\r\nTUESDAY: CAD – Trade Balance.\r\nTUESDAY: NZD – Dairy Auction Prices.\r\nTUESDAY: EUR – Words of wisdom from Mario Draghi (ECB)\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: BOJ – Monetary Policy Statement &amp; Press Conference.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: USD – FOMC Meeting Minutes.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: CAD – Employment data and words from Stephen Poloz (BOC).\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMY THOUGHTS ON THE NEWS ITEMS THIS COMING WEEK:\r\n\r\nThe ISM data in the U.S. will be eagerly awaited on Tuesday. If that comes in weak, the cries for a rate hike in late 2016 will gather momentum\r\n\r\nI am looking forward to hearing what Draghi has to say, I would not like to be in his shoes this weekend pouring out his cornflakes. If the U.S. really is on a slowdown the Eurozone is going into deep, deep, (deeper than Mark Carneys hole with his JCB in) recession, absolutely no doubt about it. If this whole event gathers traction it will make 2009 look like the tea party from Alice in Wonderland.\r\n\r\nEqually, the BOJ comments will be interesting, however, to round off the week we have “Ostrich Man” (Stephen Poloz), “everything is great in Canada, but let me just bury my head in the sand” to contend with. My ars* its great, open your ears and listen…. He will be delivering a few choice words Friday afternoon after the employment data is released on the same morning. There will be a rate cut in Canada sooner rather than later, Federal Election or not later this month. I have been saying this for weeks now, and the U.S. reaction to the NFP data will have Poloz sitting on his “throne” (toilet) most of the weekend. He has a dilemma…he has to chose between doing his job or sucking up to Stephen Harper, Canadian Prime Minister prior to the election. His language could give clues, that\'s if you can hear him through sand.\r\n\r\nThis week the on-going reaction to the NFP data will drive the Forex Market. Whether we believe it should or not is totally irrelevant, but believe me it will. This continual news item of a FED rate hike has been with us for 6 months now and I for one am sick of hearing about it. I cannot stomach ditherers.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMY KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS THIS WEEK FOR USD MAJORS<b>:\r\n</b>In this section I have as usual kept my charts as minimalist as possible. All readers regardless of level of experience should be able to follow my thoughts from my comments to the levels on the charts with ease.\r\n\r\nEUR/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.1192\r\n\r\nAfter all the shenanigans of last Friday, we closed last week just one pip higher than the previous week. Moves in the EUR/USD are going to be watched very closely now, even more so than usual as this pair is going to be really sensitive to breaking news. Do not get me wrong, it always has been sensitive, but now I am expecting stupid moves for no apparent reason like we saw in 2009.\r\n\r\nWe also have to consider the Eurozone reactions, it’s not all about the USA, and the Eurozone has its own issues to overcome. However, in the Eurozone they do not overcome they prefer to “can-kick“ issues / problems, hoping it all goes away. But there are issues and ramifications from NFP that the Eurozone will have to consider moving forward and this will create volatility.\r\n\r\nAfter NFP the EUR/USD rallied about 150 pips and stopped at 1.1325. I see this level as resistance now with 1.1090 being support.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURUSDDaily02102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6558\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURUSDDaily02102015.png\" alt=\"EURUSDDaily02102015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.5176\r\n\r\nThe cable ended the week just 6 pips higher than the previous weekly close. Cable looks weak. The GBP cross rates look weak. I hate trading cable; it is the master of false moves. I feel a bit worried writing that in spite of everything that happened last week the future of cable is lower, more like 1.4000 than 1.5000.\r\n\r\nThe cross rate effect could weigh in quite heavily on movements in the GBP/USD.\r\n\r\nThe highly publicized GBP/CAD head and shoulders measured move triggered late last week. It is a potential move of 1,000 pips lower<strong>. </strong>The move lower started in the last hour of North American trading. At that time we have totally illiquid markets, with very light volumes that promote exacerbated moves for such a thinly traded pair. Nevertheless, it moved, but the jury is still out, until at least the European close on Monday on whether it\'s a legitimate confirmed move.\r\n\r\nActivity in the EUR/GBP will become quite twitchy, as the Eurozone issues start to weigh in more. As the EUR sells off the EUR/GBP will rise placing upward pressure on GBP/USD and should the GBP/CAD drop off as a result of the continued out of nowhere CAD strength coming into the market, the GBP/USD could tread water as cross-rate effects could nullify any moves. Even if the oil price drops which, I think it will, and the CAD weakens as a result, the trading volumes in the EUR/GBP are so great on its own it could still create the GBP/USD appearance of just treading water.\r\n\r\nWhat I am saying here is the GBP/USD may not be a straightforward a trade as you might first believe, having said that I do think that it will be downside pressured.\r\n\r\nSupport is big at 1.5085 and resistance is good at 1.5250.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPUSDWeekly02102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6559\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPUSDWeekly02102015.png\" alt=\"GBPUSDWeekly02102015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.7028\r\n\r\nThis pair failed to break higher. This has surprised me a great deal. I have resisted for a week or so now from trading this pair to the short side, as I believed we were going to see a move to 0.7200, from where I was ready to short.\r\n\r\nWe are in a range from support at 0.6940 to resistance at 0.7050 and then 0.7110.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AUDUSDDaily02102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6557\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AUDUSDDaily02102015.png\" alt=\"AUDUSDDaily02102015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.6416\r\n\r\nThis pair has a very similar story to the Aussie. I had a short for a couple of days last week, took +30 pips on it and closed it just prior to NFP. I will re-short through the PREMIUM SERVICE early this week. Our levels are clearly defined, as are my outer levels from the FOMC Press Conference day last month.\r\n\r\nSupport is at 0.6350 then at 0.6240, with resistance at 0.6465 and 0.6490.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/NZDUSDDaily02102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6560\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/NZDUSDDaily02102015.png\" alt=\"NZDUSDDaily02102015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.3151\r\n\r\nI am long this pair and not completely comfortable at the moment, the GBP/CAD sell off into the close pulled the USD/CAD to close at its lows last Friday. I am not a happy teddy with this one.\r\n\r\nLonger-term the BOC will cut rates. Oil will fall as demand shrinks even more as confidence fails around the globe. The Canadian economy is on the brink; in fact it’s already in what is now termed a “technical recession”. Yup…. you cannot say DEFLATION anymore, its now called “disinflation” and RECESSION is now referred to as a “technical RECESSION” by the BOC. The use of the term Happy Holidays was bad enough for me, this is now just utter bulls**t.\r\n\r\nLonger-term I believe that the USD/CAD is going above the recent failed breakout level of 1.3460. I see at least a move in the medium term to 1.4000. There is even a longer-term “cup and handle” that has a projected measured move of 1.6000.\r\n\r\nIn the present, we cannot rule out a test of the bull-bear line in the sand of 1.3160. However, that is the worst-case scenario. It is the CAD$ reaction to oil that will be key to its near-term moves.\r\n\r\nSupport is at 1.3110 and resistance at 1.3230. A break above 1.3230 could see a re-test of the break out level once again.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCADDaily02102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6561\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCADDaily02102015.png\" alt=\"USDCADDaily02102015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF - Weekly Closing Price: 0.9714\r\n\r\nI am long this pair. We were so close to the breakout on Friday just ahead of NFP, and then we had a +150 pip drop. I am a little concerned that as the EUR/USD sold off into the close that this pair did not close around 0.9750.\r\n\r\nFundamentally, this pair is going back above parity and it should be taking all the CHF pairs with it. Do not rule out Thomas Jordan (SNB) coming out to play to manipulate the EUR/CHF. They want this pair above 1.1000 as a minimum and it is struggling around 1.0900. Should the SNB intervene, the CHF will sell-off and my long trades will be very profitable.\r\n\r\nThe bottom line is that the SNB has sat back for over 6 months, unless we see Eurozone action the SNB may act.\r\n\r\nBack to the present, this pair is supported at 0.9650 and 0.9580 and resistance now is at 0.9750 and 0.9820.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCHFDaily02102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6562\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCHFDaily02102015.png\" alt=\"USDCHFDaily02102015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY - Weekly Closing Price: 119.88\r\n\r\nBeing sensitive to equity prices is should not be a surprise to note that last Friday this pair was as high as 120.40 and as low as 118.65. A wild ride and when you consider it pulled back off its lows to close just below 120.00 it was quite a day. All JPY pairs except the CHF/JPY basically had the same roller coaster ride.\r\n\r\nThe BOJ are front and centre this week with a policy statement, this could be fun. The range mentioned above is the support and resistance to take note of moving forward this week.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDJPYDaily02102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6563\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDJPYDaily02102015.png\" alt=\"USDJPYDaily02102015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n1.3: LOOKING SIDEWAYS (FOR GOOD MEASURE):\r\n\r\nIf ever there was a time to keep your trading a little lighter and your position sizes a little smaller it is now.\r\n\r\nWe have uncertainty.\r\n\r\nWe have a FED that dithers.\r\n\r\nWe have a world market taken by surprise by the NFP numbers.\r\n\r\nWe also have the EUROZONE moving back to the edge again (see later in Section 2.)\r\n\r\nWhether or not we believe the hype is not important. There are “fat cats” on Wall Street who are loving this moment, as they can visualize the FED backstopping equity prices for another prolonged period. The “fat cats” can get fatter, if they can encourage panic, and fear.\r\n\r\nPanic / Fear and Greed all mean uncertainty and volatility.\r\n\r\nTo me as a seasoned trader it tells me to slow down, cut back, and wait a little to let the dust settle. There are no prizes in Forex for guessing, the market takes no prisoners, it is 100% totally unforgiving.\r\n\r\nI have nothing else to say here except be careful. The markets are now going to be driven by news events and quotations correctly or incorrectly attributed to someone and both FUNDAMENTALS and TECHNICALS in these situations mean nothing.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n	<li><strong> WHAT’S ON MY MIND:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>THE FORGOTTEN STORY…</strong>\r\n<strong> THE EUROZONE IS DRIFTING</strong>\r\n<strong> BACK TO THE PRECIPICE ONCE AGAIN</strong></p>\r\nThe Eurozone is the forgotten story. Everything has been FOMC this, FOMC that, will Yellen do this or should Yellen do that.\r\n\r\nWhilst all the FOMC stuff has been going on, the Eurozone has been drifting. Events that would have had airtime on TV and column space in the written media have really for want of a better word been minimalized.\r\n\r\nGreece is no longer trendy; the American commentators do not understand the culture. So instead of trying to understand it, the approach is just to ignore it…. It might go away. Sadly, just like the GOP would love Donald Trump to go away so they could have a “YES” man controlling the polls, he isn’t and he won’t, and nor will Greece.\r\n\r\nMy Eurozone headlines are: -\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>GREECE</li>\r\n	<li>PORTUGAL</li>\r\n	<li>SPAIN</li>\r\n	<li>GERMANY SLOWDOWN</li>\r\n	<li>RECESSION and DEFLATION</li>\r\n	<li>VOLKSWAGEN</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThe above five topics have Mario hoping, wishing, pondering, panicking and probably praying all at once. Oh, I forgot possibly drinking as well. I know I would be, if I were carrying these issues.\r\n\r\nLet me be brief about each point this week and over the coming weeks I will place more flesh on the bone: -\r\n\r\nGREECE:\r\n\r\nAlexis Tsipras (Syriza Party) was re-elected as Prime Minister. He pledged to the EU that he would implement, deficit-reduction measures including tax rises, changes to pensions and social welfare cuts in return for an €86 billion bailout. He has to persuade the Eurogroup later this month that the terms of the bailout are being met and are on time. His initial meeting to show progress was originally set for Monday October 5<sup>th</sup>, but I cannot confirm the date, or whether it has been re-scheduled due to the recent elections. Maybe it’s just no longer on the calendar.\r\n\r\nThe IMF has stated that unless there is an “explicit and concrete” agreement on debt relief for Greece that it may refuse to be a party to the bailout. Germany does NOT want any Greek debt relief.\r\n\r\nCulturally, Tsipras (always the chancer) believes that an election win will give him some clout when dealing with his creditors to negotiate debt relief and less onerous austerity measures. This is at complete odds with Germany and the European Institutions that imposed the draconian measures on Greece in the name of fiscal discipline. Basically, the bailout terms gives the Eurozone a host of powers over Greece when it comes to policymaking.\r\n\r\nWe haven’t heard from “the pit-bull” recently but Schaeuble is bound to be on the wires very soon scathing about the fact the Greeks will not have completed the reforms agreed to in the bailout within the timescales allocated.\r\n\r\nThe Germans with their rush to get the bailout through never got the IMF on side to hold the privatization trust fund to supposedly hold Greek assets worth about €50 billion.\r\n\r\nYes, it’s another Eurozone mess. I cannot find out if Monday’s initially proposed meeting to show its creditors what has been achieved is on / off or re-scheduled.\r\n\r\nBy November 15<sup>th</sup> if the actions taken by Greece are in accordance with the bailout they get some €2 billion in dosh!\r\n\r\nThe last we heard from Jeroen Dijsselbloem (Eurogroup leader) was that if Greece did not follow the detail of the agreed bailout to the letter, there would be no tranches payable to them. I have no doubt that the pit-bull would echo those comments, and if he had the power he would follow through.\r\n\r\nSomehow I just think the can kicking will start all over again. This story will start to grow very soon.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nPORTUGAL:\r\n\r\nIt’s election time. The centre-right party led by Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho is running neck and neck with the socialist party and political stalemate looks the likely outcome.\r\n\r\nWhen coming to power in 2011, if you recall, the government was taken to task for imposing tax hikes, and making cuts in salaries, pensions and public services. The Socialist opposition led by Antonio Costa, claimed the austerity measures taken went way too far beyond the terms of the €78 billion bailout deal agreed with the prior socialist government.\r\n\r\nIt is therefore quite remarkable that Coelho is still in the running to form a new government. He has had a tough period in charge with a record 17% unemployment level, 4% of the population has emigrated since 2011 and continual strikes and mass demonstrations have at times paralyzed Lisbon. How the hell has this guy stayed in the running? Costa must be weak, you would think.\r\n\r\nThe numbers on practically everything have improved of late, unemployment this year is down 4% and Coelho claims his tough measures are working now for the good of the country.\r\n\r\nThe problem is electoral stalemate. Uncertainty and instability are created, and whilst both parties believe it or not have very similar manifestos, the cores of each party are very diverse.\r\n\r\nIf a stalemate election result creates fragility moving forward this could push Portugal backwards once again. Within the Eurozone Portugal is famous for having one of the worst debt to GDP ratios at 130%.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nSPAIN:\r\n\r\nPrime Minister Mariano Rajoy has called a Christmas election for December 20<sup>th</sup>. There are massive fragmentation risks in Spain, with the separatist alliances winning popularity in the Catalan regional elections.\r\n\r\nThere will no doubt be demonstrations for Basque independence etc all the time during the campaign and the old chestnuts about bribery and corruption inside the Spanish government will no doubt come to the forefront once again.\r\n\r\nIt is very uncertain what might happen in December, the only certainty is that Spain looks very fragmented at the moment.\r\n\r\nMore uncertainty.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGERMANY SLOWING DOWN and VOLKSWAGEN:\r\n\r\nThe old powerhouse of the Eurozone is starting to suffer, production and employment is starting to pinch. At the same time the VW revelations could not have been brought to the forefront at a worse time. Allegedly many parties have known about the German “fiddle” for years. How did this remain undercover for so long is what I want to know. I will also bet there are other car manufacturers with twitchy bottoms as I have no doubt VW is NOT alone.\r\n\r\nIn any event, these pieces of news come at the wrong time, not that there is ever a good time.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nEUROZONE RECESSION and DEFLATION:\r\n\r\nThe majority of Europe is bouncing on the thin line between recession and growth.\r\n\r\nLike many other areas of the world, the Eurozone still suffers from DEFLATION. As I have stated on so many occasions, the central banker’s around the globe can feed an economy. They can use extraordinary measures to support their economies; they can almost pull a rabbit out of a hat. However the one thing that no one central banker has been able to do is find a possible solution for DEFLATION. It is the “Holy Grail” of central banking and right now there is more chance of “Hell freezing over” than a central banker finding the cure for DEFLATION.\r\n\r\nYikes…\r\n\r\nSo it’s back to the starting line once again for Mario Draghi. Yes, he has been here before but now he has several fronts on which to focus. The uncertainty of general elections may on the face of things be small fry, with new people around the table; a different style can cause friction. Tsipras is a classic example of this on how to ruffle the feathers of the cheese and wine drinking chappies and chapettes in Brussels.\r\n\r\nFactor into Draghi’s melting pot the U.S. jobs data and he must be thinking the old story, should the USA get a cold, the Eurozone gets the flu.\r\n\r\nMore QE is on the cards for the Eurozone. It is the only supportive action that he can take.\r\n\r\nHow the Eurogroup reacts to Greece will be pivotal. This time, Tsipras through no doing of his own may get a moral victory over the Eurogroup as the fragility of the Eurozone can not afford to be rocked or rather pushed over the edge of the cliff.\r\n\r\nThis action in my opinion will drive the EUR/USD towards parity.\r\n\r\nVery interesting times ahead.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:\r\n</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n3.1: SUMMARY OF YEAR TO DATE PERFORMANCE - 2015:\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">PREMIUM SERVICE – COST INCOME ANALYSIS (USD):</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">PROFITS FROM TRADE SET-UPS – to October 4th 2015.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">MICRO LOT TRADER - 522 trades cost to trade = $52.20\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 522 trades = <strong>$875.10</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">MINI LOT TRADER - 522 trades cost to trade = $522.00\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 522 trades = <strong>$8,751.00</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">STANDARD LOT TRADER - 522 trades cost to trade = $5,220.00\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 522 trades = <strong>$87,510.00</strong></p>\r\n3.2: PREMIUM SERVICE – TRADE SUMMARIES MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/PS-PROFITS1-04102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6547\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/PS-PROFITS1-04102015.png\" alt=\"PS PROFITS1 04102015\" width=\"447\" height=\"418\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/PS-PROFITS2-04102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6548\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/PS-PROFITS2-04102015.png\" alt=\"PS PROFITS2 04102015\" width=\"457\" height=\"411\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) SUBSCRIBER CONTENT:\r\n</strong>(The following section is additional data, thoughts, and ideas exclusively for PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) subscribers)</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n4.1: THE PREMIUM SERVICE – TRADING REVIEW:\r\n\r\nI have started, albeit with maybe not my best foot forward, to place trades in line with my FUNDAMENTAL TRADING PLAN.\r\n\r\nAre the NFP numbers a problem to my plan?\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, only if the FED were to re-introduce QE. Then I think maybe I have a problem. Remember my plan is based on central bank monetary policy and yes the FED dominates in this respect, but rate hikes are still coming, they may just be delayed. So, from my perspective I am still at the starting blocks, well in fact, I jump started.\r\n\r\nI am now in the CHF pairs and sticking with them. The CHF/JPY is a slippery little bugger; it is sensitive to GOLD, the JPY (through equity prices) and the CHF. Last Friday, it followed GOLD then the JPY…. it is slippery, a double whammy in the wrong direction. Volumes are still thin and I still think that equities will come under pressure in the medium term, but for now its part of my plan. The GBP/CHF I will re-introduce after I see how cable moves.\r\n\r\nI will hopefully be adding the following trades back over the course of the week; NZD/USD and EUR/GBP shorts, with maybe the AUD/USD as well after Glenn Stevens (RBA) show early this week.\r\n\r\nOverall, I think that for the early part of next week, things may be a little quiet as the dust settles down and the other markets are allowed to digest.\r\n\r\nThere is a lot of headline news out there that is sensationalizing data. This is just sales talk and I am staying calm.\r\n\r\nU.S. commentators, in particular, have been bullying up the fact that the U.S. economy is in great shape, now they want to rain on the parade.\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>The U.S. is totally dysfunctional but it gets by, how, it beggars belief.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>The Eurozone is run by a bunch of numpties that you could lock in the Heineken brewery or Scottish distillery on a Friday night and go back on Monday morning to find them all stone cold sober, but the Eurozone with all it’s can-kicking still rather surprisingly gets by.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>The UK has Mark Carney (BOE) continually saying things are good for the UK, only to be eating his words within days of opening his mouth.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThey all get by, God only knows how but they survive.\r\n\r\nYes, Americans shout louder so they are heard, my God you only have to go to Texas to get that, it doesn’t mean he who shouts loudest is correct. So ignore the TV pundits arguing for TV face time.\r\n\r\nIt is a bunch of accountants, who think that fizzy drinks are cool that are making the decisions. They are not easily swayed. I used an oil tanker scenario earlier in the blog to paint a picture of their mindset.\r\n\r\nThe cross-rate trades are too volatile for me at the moment; I only like trading them directionally not in a chop fest.\r\n\r\nI had big hopes for October but the NFP data has placed a dent in my overall plan, but there are still opportunities but we need to exercise patience for a little while.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.2: MAJOR TRADING PAIRS WITH LONGER-TERM MATCHING TRENDS:\r\n\r\n(The following currency pairs have Short Term (DAILY), Medium Term (WEEKLY) and Long Term (MONTHLY) charts all trending in the same direction).\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/PS-TRENDING-PAIRS-04102105.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6556\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/PS-TRENDING-PAIRS-04102105.png\" alt=\"PS TRENDING PAIRS 04102105\" width=\"500\" height=\"619\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.3: THE PREMIUM SERVICE - LIVE TRADES ARE:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/PS-LIVE-TRADES-04102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6555\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/PS-LIVE-TRADES-04102015.png\" alt=\"PS LIVE TRADES 04102015\" width=\"716\" height=\"566\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.4: THE PREMIUM SERVICE – LIMIT ORDER TRADES ARE:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/PS-LIMIT-ORDERS-04102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6554\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/PS-LIMIT-ORDERS-04102015.png\" alt=\"PS LIMIT ORDERS 04102015\" width=\"702\" height=\"446\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.5: POTENTIAL TRADES - WHAT PAIRS / CHARTS AM I LOOKING AT?\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nBelow are a few pairs that have caught my eye. As I have been saying straight after NFP is not always the best time to jump in. Usually it is best to wait a couple of days as the recent moves have been exaggerated due to NFP and to identify possible set ups can be misleading.\r\n\r\nHaving said that I have added a few charts below that have opportunities. There are no comments other than those contained on the charts if applicable.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AUDCAD-DAILY-CHART.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6571\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AUDCAD-DAILY-CHART-1024x514.png\" alt=\"AUDCAD - DAILY CHART\" width=\"1024\" height=\"514\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AUDCHF-DAILY-04102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6570\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AUDCHF-DAILY-04102015-1024x514.png\" alt=\"AUDCHF DAILY 04102015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"514\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURCAD-DAILY-04102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6569\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURCAD-DAILY-04102015-1024x514.png\" alt=\"EURCAD DAILY 04102015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"514\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURGBP-DAILY-04102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6568\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURGBP-DAILY-04102015-1024x514.png\" alt=\"EURGBP DAILY 04102015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"514\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPCAD-DAILY-04102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6567\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPCAD-DAILY-04102015-1024x514.png\" alt=\"GBPCAD DAILY 04102015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"514\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPCHF-DAILY-04102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6566\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPCHF-DAILY-04102015-1024x514.png\" alt=\"GBPCHF DAILY 04102015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"514\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPNZD-WEEKLY-04102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6565\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPNZD-WEEKLY-04102015-1024x514.png\" alt=\"GBPNZD WEEKLY 04102015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"514\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n	<li><strong> MY FINAL THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nOVERVIEW OF TRADING TIPS &amp; THOUGHTS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD:\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, patience is now the key trait to adopt moving forward. Do not be too hasty adding trades; let the dust settle following NFP.\r\n\r\nAs stated earlier, if ever there was a time for trading smaller position sizes to allow for a wider stop to cope with volatility, that time is now.\r\n\r\nThere are market-moving events and the markets have decided with the initial knee-jerk reaction that we are at the crossroads of change. The FOMC under Chair Yellen has said nothing. Be calm, be patient.\r\n\r\nIf we remain flexible as traders, we stand a good chance of reaching a point when we can achieve longevity in trading and provide an income.\r\n\r\nTake care.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nhttps://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\r\nBLOG REF#74','I BET YELLEN WISHED SHE’D HIKED RATES  LAST MONTH NOW!','','inherit','closed','closed','','6572-revision-v1','','','2015-10-03 15:26:47','2015-10-03 20:26:47','',6572,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/6572-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(6575,1,'2015-10-03 15:39:40','2015-10-03 20:39:40','<h3 style=\"text-align: center;\">THE PREMIUM SERVICE\r\nfrom the\r\nWEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU\r\n“The Home of Single Lot Trading”</h3>\r\n<h3 style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong> </strong></h3>\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li><strong> THE VIEW FROM MY TRADE DESK:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nLOOKING BACKWARDS, FORWARDS &amp; SIDEWAYS (FOR GOOD MEASURE) AT THE FX MARKET:\r\n\r\n1.1: LOOKING BACKWARDS:\r\n\r\nOne big event dominated the news last week, which was of course U.S. Non-Farm payrolls, expected was 201k and we saw 142k. That was a big miss and the prior two months data was also revised down by 59k.\r\n\r\nWithin minutes of this number being released there was a sea of red all over my charts and twitter feeds were out looking for the Fed to backstop equities again via the re-introduction of Quantitative Easing (QE). The “sky is falling”, doom and gloom abound, the ECB would be on for more QE, the BOJ likewise and Carney at the BOE, well, God only knows what he’s going to say. Whatever it is he has to say, I would suggest that you do not believe him. I would also check to see if he has a JCB at the back of his office to dig himself a hole with.\r\n\r\nMoving on….\r\n\r\nNow, lets just take a step back.\r\n\r\nMonetary policy by central banks is not akin to a “knee-jerk” practice. Central bank monetary policy is like a huge oil tanker trying to turn around whilst out at sea. It takes about 5 miles to stop, then start turning, it’s all done very slowly and precisely. Central banks do not make up their monetary policy on the back of a cigarette packet (maybe Mark Carney does at the BOE?).\r\n\r\nPolicy is longer-term…it is conservative with a big C. These people who set policy and sit on these committees are generally dull and boring. An exciting day for an accountant is if the weatherman predicts rain and the sun shines. Basically, they are all accountants; they will never stick their necks out to make a decision that could in anyway be seen as innovative, courageous or revolutionary.\r\n\r\nWith this as a backdrop do you honestly believe that they will make a decision to alter policy on one months data?\r\n\r\nDo you not think they base policy more on cumulative results?\r\n\r\nI am saying that a rate hike is not off the table. It’s now back onto the timing once again. Time will tell, but I can assure you that Janet Yellen probably wished that she had hiked rates last month.\r\n\r\nMy reason for saying that I bet she wished she had already acted and not dithered is quite simple. At least today, she would have something put by for a rainy day. Right now with the children on Wall Street running around like headless chickens, she has nothing. I just cannot believe I read about QE. QE what number is it now, “QE IV” the son of QE “the FED chair bites back”?\r\n\r\nJanet Yellen’s dithering has caused this uncertainty, the very thing she claims she wants to avoid in the markets. Some will argue that the FOMC nailed the decision not to hike last month. Personally, I see it as dithering; we are talking about 0.25% after 7 years of zero, not a 3% rise, after all is the USA not the biggest economy in the world, you would think it could handle 0.25%. Are things really that fragile?\r\n\r\nFundamentally, there is a problem with the fact the data was poor. However, although I believe the FOMC will not react to just one month’s data, the fact that the numbers for the previous two months were revised lower, in my opinion was a killer to a rate hike later this month. The FOMC will consider much more than what we were presented with last Friday. However, in real terms all the data was pretty dire, from the hourly average earnings growth – which was flat and the participation rate, which is now at its lowest level for 38 years\r\n\r\nBTW, in 2015 why the hell do we still have revisions?\r\n\r\nIs it not possible for the greatest country on earth to manage this counting process more efficiently?\r\n\r\nWhy do we wait months to hear of these revisions?\r\n\r\nIf NFP is that important it should be delivered professionally, which in my opinion is NOT the way it is done today.\r\n\r\nGetting back on point….\r\n\r\nWhere do we go from here?\r\n\r\nNon Manufacturing ISM data is due this week. It has to be a blow out number. If not I would be very surprised to see an October move in the FED funds rate.\r\n\r\nIf this number is low, confidence will be low moving forward and this could be the catalyst for a rather dour winter. It is going to be so difficult for the FED to “lift-off”, in my opinion, they missed the moment and the opportunity was last month. As mentioned last week and again just above, the frightening aspect of all this for me is that we are only talking about 0.25%, you would think it was a 3% hike in discussion.\r\n\r\nTime will tell what the outcome is going to be, but as stated already, I think QE calls and low rates forever are rather premature.\r\n\r\nIn the name of sanity if the FED moved policy on every bit of economic data they would be as dysfunctional as the politicians on Capitol Hill.\r\n\r\nI really do think the moment was missed and to “lift-off” now is difficult. The FOMC really have created a problem for themselves that they should never have had in the first place. Dithering has created huge uncertainty.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n1.2: LOOKING FORWARD:\r\n\r\nMAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:\r\n(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market other than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to <a href=\"http://www.forexfactory.com\">www.forexfactory.com</a> and <a href=\"http://www.tradingeconomics.com\">www.tradingeconomics.com</a> for a more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).\r\nSUNDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMi.\r\nMONDAY: AUD – Trade Balance and RBA Rate Statement.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: USD – Trade Balance.\r\nTUESDAY: CAD – Trade Balance.\r\nTUESDAY: NZD – Dairy Auction Prices.\r\nTUESDAY: EUR – Words of wisdom from Mario Draghi (ECB)\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: BOJ – Monetary Policy Statement &amp; Press Conference.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: USD – FOMC Meeting Minutes.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: CAD – Employment data and words from Stephen Poloz (BOC).\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMY THOUGHTS ON THE NEWS ITEMS THIS COMING WEEK:\r\n\r\nThe ISM data in the U.S. will be eagerly awaited on Tuesday. If that comes in weak, the cries for a rate hike in late 2016 will gather momentum\r\n\r\nI am looking forward to hearing what Draghi has to say, I would not like to be in his shoes this weekend pouring out his cornflakes. If the U.S. really is on a slowdown the Eurozone is going into deep, deep, (deeper than Mark Carneys hole with his JCB in) recession, absolutely no doubt about it. If this whole event gathers traction it will make 2009 look like the tea party from Alice in Wonderland.\r\n\r\nEqually, the BOJ comments will be interesting, however, to round off the week we have “Ostrich Man” (Stephen Poloz), “everything is great in Canada, but let me just bury my head in the sand” to contend with. My ars* its great, open your ears and listen…. He will be delivering a few choice words Friday afternoon after the employment data is released on the same morning. There will be a rate cut in Canada sooner rather than later, Federal Election or not later this month. I have been saying this for weeks now, and the U.S. reaction to the NFP data will have Poloz sitting on his “throne” (toilet) most of the weekend. He has a dilemma…he has to chose between doing his job or sucking up to Stephen Harper, Canadian Prime Minister prior to the election. His language could give clues, that\'s if you can hear him through sand.\r\n\r\nThis week the on-going reaction to the NFP data will drive the Forex Market. Whether we believe it should or not is totally irrelevant, but believe me it will. This continual news item of a FED rate hike has been with us for 6 months now and I for one am sick of hearing about it. I cannot stomach ditherers.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMY KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS THIS WEEK FOR USD MAJORS<strong>:</strong>\r\n\r\nIn this section I have as usual kept my charts as minimalist as possible. All readers regardless of level of experience should be able to follow my thoughts from my comments to the levels on the charts with ease.\r\n\r\nEUR/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.1192\r\n\r\nAfter all the shenanigans of last Friday, we closed last week just one pip higher than the previous week. Moves in the EUR/USD are going to be watched very closely now, even more so than usual as this pair is going to be really sensitive to breaking news. Do not get me wrong, it always has been sensitive, but now I am expecting stupid moves for no apparent reason like we saw in 2009.\r\n\r\nWe also have to consider the Eurozone reactions, it’s not all about the USA, and the Eurozone has its own issues to overcome. However, in the Eurozone they do not overcome they prefer to “can-kick“ issues / problems, hoping it all goes away. But there are issues and ramifications from NFP that the Eurozone will have to consider moving forward and this will create volatility.\r\n\r\nAfter NFP the EUR/USD rallied about 150 pips and stopped at 1.1325. I see this level as resistance now with 1.1090 being support.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURUSDDaily02102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6558\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURUSDDaily02102015.png\" alt=\"EURUSDDaily02102015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.5176\r\n\r\nThe cable ended the week just 6 pips higher than the previous weekly close. Cable looks weak. The GBP cross rates look weak. I hate trading cable; it is the master of false moves. I feel a bit worried writing that in spite of everything that happened last week the future of cable is lower, more like 1.4000 than 1.5000.\r\n\r\nThe cross rate effect could weigh in quite heavily on movements in the GBP/USD.\r\n\r\nThe highly publicized GBP/CAD head and shoulders measured move triggered late last week. It is a potential move of 1,000 pips lower<strong>. </strong>The move lower started in the last hour of North American trading. At that time we have totally illiquid markets, with very light volumes that promote exacerbated moves for such a thinly traded pair. Nevertheless, it moved, but the jury is still out, until at least the European close on Monday on whether it\'s a legitimate confirmed move.\r\n\r\nActivity in the EUR/GBP will become quite twitchy, as the Eurozone issues start to weigh in more. As the EUR sells off the EUR/GBP will rise placing upward pressure on GBP/USD and should the GBP/CAD drop off as a result of the continued out of nowhere CAD strength coming into the market, the GBP/USD could tread water as cross-rate effects could nullify any moves. Even if the oil price drops which, I think it will, and the CAD weakens as a result, the trading volumes in the EUR/GBP are so great on its own it could still create the GBP/USD appearance of just treading water.\r\n\r\nWhat I am saying here is the GBP/USD may not be a straightforward a trade as you might first believe, having said that I do think that it will be downside pressured.\r\n\r\nSupport is big at 1.5085 and resistance is good at 1.5250.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPUSDWeekly02102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6559\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPUSDWeekly02102015.png\" alt=\"GBPUSDWeekly02102015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.7028\r\n\r\nThis pair failed to break higher. This has surprised me a great deal. I have resisted for a week or so now from trading this pair to the short side, as I believed we were going to see a move to 0.7200, from where I was ready to short.\r\n\r\nWe are in a range from support at 0.6940 to resistance at 0.7050 and then 0.7110.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AUDUSDDaily02102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6557\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AUDUSDDaily02102015.png\" alt=\"AUDUSDDaily02102015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.6416\r\n\r\nThis pair has a very similar story to the Aussie. I had a short for a couple of days last week, took +30 pips on it and closed it just prior to NFP. I will re-short through the PREMIUM SERVICE early this week. Our levels are clearly defined, as are my outer levels from the FOMC Press Conference day last month.\r\n\r\nSupport is at 0.6350 then at 0.6240, with resistance at 0.6465 and 0.6490.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/NZDUSDDaily02102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6560\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/NZDUSDDaily02102015.png\" alt=\"NZDUSDDaily02102015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.3151\r\n\r\nI am long this pair and not completely comfortable at the moment, the GBP/CAD sell off into the close pulled the USD/CAD to close at its lows last Friday. I am not a happy teddy with this one.\r\n\r\nLonger-term the BOC will cut rates. Oil will fall as demand shrinks even more as confidence fails around the globe. The Canadian economy is on the brink; in fact it’s already in what is now termed a “technical recession”. Yup…. you cannot say DEFLATION anymore, its now called “disinflation” and RECESSION is now referred to as a “technical RECESSION” by the BOC. The use of the term Happy Holidays was bad enough for me, this is now just utter bulls**t.\r\n\r\nLonger-term I believe that the USD/CAD is going above the recent failed breakout level of 1.3460. I see at least a move in the medium term to 1.4000. There is even a longer-term “cup and handle” that has a projected measured move of 1.6000.\r\n\r\nIn the present, we cannot rule out a test of the bull-bear line in the sand of 1.3160. However, that is the worst-case scenario. It is the CAD$ reaction to oil that will be key to its near-term moves.\r\n\r\nSupport is at 1.3110 and resistance at 1.3230. A break above 1.3230 could see a re-test of the break out level once again.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCADDaily02102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6561\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCADDaily02102015.png\" alt=\"USDCADDaily02102015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF - Weekly Closing Price: 0.9714\r\n\r\nI am long this pair. We were so close to the breakout on Friday just ahead of NFP, and then we had a +150 pip drop. I am a little concerned that as the EUR/USD sold off into the close that this pair did not close around 0.9750.\r\n\r\nFundamentally, this pair is going back above parity and it should be taking all the CHF pairs with it. Do not rule out Thomas Jordan (SNB) coming out to play to manipulate the EUR/CHF. They want this pair above 1.1000 as a minimum and it is struggling around 1.0900. Should the SNB intervene, the CHF will sell-off and my long trades will be very profitable.\r\n\r\nThe bottom line is that the SNB has sat back for over 6 months, unless we see Eurozone action the SNB may act.\r\n\r\nBack to the present, this pair is supported at 0.9650 and 0.9580 and resistance now is at 0.9750 and 0.9820.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCHFDaily02102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6562\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCHFDaily02102015.png\" alt=\"USDCHFDaily02102015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY - Weekly Closing Price: 119.88\r\n\r\nBeing sensitive to equity prices is should not be a surprise to note that last Friday this pair was as high as 120.40 and as low as 118.65. A wild ride and when you consider it pulled back off its lows to close just below 120.00 it was quite a day. All JPY pairs except the CHF/JPY basically had the same roller coaster ride.\r\n\r\nThe BOJ are front and centre this week with a policy statement, this could be fun. The range mentioned above is the support and resistance to take note of moving forward this week.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDJPYDaily02102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6563\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDJPYDaily02102015.png\" alt=\"USDJPYDaily02102015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n1.3: LOOKING SIDEWAYS (FOR GOOD MEASURE):\r\n\r\nIf ever there was a time to keep your trading a little lighter and your position sizes a little smaller it is now.\r\n\r\nWe have uncertainty.\r\n\r\nWe have a FED that dithers.\r\n\r\nWe have a world market taken by surprise by the NFP numbers.\r\n\r\nWe also have the EUROZONE moving back to the edge again (see later in Section 2.)\r\n\r\nWhether or not we believe the hype is not important. There are “fat cats” on Wall Street who are loving this moment, as they can visualize the FED backstopping equity prices for another prolonged period. The “fat cats” can get fatter, if they can encourage panic, and fear.\r\n\r\nPanic / Fear and Greed all mean uncertainty and volatility.\r\n\r\nTo me as a seasoned trader it tells me to slow down, cut back, and wait a little to let the dust settle. There are no prizes in Forex for guessing, the market takes no prisoners, it is 100% totally unforgiving.\r\n\r\nI have nothing else to say here except be careful. The markets are now going to be driven by news events and quotations correctly or incorrectly attributed to someone and both FUNDAMENTALS and TECHNICALS in these situations mean nothing.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n	<li><strong> WHAT’S ON MY MIND:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>THE FORGOTTEN STORY…</strong>\r\n<strong> THE EUROZONE IS DRIFTING</strong>\r\n<strong> BACK TO THE PRECIPICE ONCE AGAIN</strong></p>\r\nThe Eurozone is the forgotten story. Everything has been FOMC this, FOMC that, will Yellen do this or should Yellen do that.\r\n\r\nWhilst all the FOMC stuff has been going on, the Eurozone has been drifting. Events that would have had airtime on TV and column space in the written media have really for want of a better word been minimalized.\r\n\r\nGreece is no longer trendy; the American commentators do not understand the culture. So instead of trying to understand it, the approach is just to ignore it…. It might go away. Sadly, just like the GOP would love Donald Trump to go away so they could have a “YES” man controlling the polls, he isn’t and he won’t, and nor will Greece.\r\n\r\nMy Eurozone headlines are: -\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>GREECE</li>\r\n	<li>PORTUGAL</li>\r\n	<li>SPAIN</li>\r\n	<li>GERMANY SLOWDOWN</li>\r\n	<li>RECESSION and DEFLATION</li>\r\n	<li>VOLKSWAGEN</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThe above five topics have Mario hoping, wishing, pondering, panicking and probably praying all at once. Oh, I forgot possibly drinking as well. I know I would be, if I were carrying these issues.\r\n\r\nLet me be brief about each point this week and over the coming weeks I will place more flesh on the bone: -\r\n\r\nGREECE:\r\n\r\nAlexis Tsipras (Syriza Party) was re-elected as Prime Minister. He pledged to the EU that he would implement, deficit-reduction measures including tax rises, changes to pensions and social welfare cuts in return for an €86 billion bailout. He has to persuade the Eurogroup later this month that the terms of the bailout are being met and are on time. His initial meeting to show progress was originally set for Monday October 5<sup>th</sup>, but I cannot confirm the date, or whether it has been re-scheduled due to the recent elections. Maybe it’s just no longer on the calendar.\r\n\r\nThe IMF has stated that unless there is an “explicit and concrete” agreement on debt relief for Greece that it may refuse to be a party to the bailout. Germany does NOT want any Greek debt relief.\r\n\r\nCulturally, Tsipras (always the chancer) believes that an election win will give him some clout when dealing with his creditors to negotiate debt relief and less onerous austerity measures. This is at complete odds with Germany and the European Institutions that imposed the draconian measures on Greece in the name of fiscal discipline. Basically, the bailout terms gives the Eurozone a host of powers over Greece when it comes to policymaking.\r\n\r\nWe haven’t heard from “the pit-bull” recently but Schaeuble is bound to be on the wires very soon scathing about the fact the Greeks will not have completed the reforms agreed to in the bailout within the timescales allocated.\r\n\r\nThe Germans with their rush to get the bailout through never got the IMF on side to hold the privatization trust fund to supposedly hold Greek assets worth about €50 billion.\r\n\r\nYes, it’s another Eurozone mess. I cannot find out if Monday’s initially proposed meeting to show its creditors what has been achieved is on / off or re-scheduled.\r\n\r\nBy November 15<sup>th</sup> if the actions taken by Greece are in accordance with the bailout they get some €2 billion in dosh!\r\n\r\nThe last we heard from Jeroen Dijsselbloem (Eurogroup leader) was that if Greece did not follow the detail of the agreed bailout to the letter, there would be no tranches payable to them. I have no doubt that the pit-bull would echo those comments, and if he had the power he would follow through.\r\n\r\nSomehow I just think the can kicking will start all over gain. This story will gather more momentum as time goes on.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nPORTUGAL:\r\n\r\nIt’s election time. The centre-right party led by Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho is running neck and neck with the socialist party and political stalemate looks the likely outcome.\r\n\r\nWhen coming to power in 2011, if you recall, the government was taken to task for imposing tax hikes, and making cuts in salaries, pensions and public services. The Socialist opposition led by Antonio Costa, claimed the austerity measures taken went way too far beyond the terms of the €78 billion bailout deal agreed with the prior socialist government.\r\n\r\nIt is therefore quite remarkable that Coelho is still in the running to form a new government. He has had a tough period in charge with a record 17% unemployment level, 4% of the population has emigrated since 2011 and continual strikes and mass demonstrations have at times paralyzed Lisbon. How the hell has this guy stayed in the running? Costa must be weak, you would think.\r\n\r\nThe numbers on practically everything have improved of late, unemployment this year is down 4% and Coelho claims his tough measures are working now for the good of the country.\r\n\r\nThe problem is electoral stalemate. Uncertainty and instability are created, and whilst both parties believe it or not have very similar manifestos, the cores of each party are very diverse.\r\n\r\nIf a stalemate election result creates fragility moving forward this could push Portugal backwards once again. Within the Eurozone Portugal is famous for having one of the worst debt to GDP ratios at 130%.\r\n\r\nSPAIN:\r\n\r\nPrime Minister Mariano Rajoy has called a Christmas election for December 20<sup>th</sup>. There are massive fragmentation risks in Spain, with the separatist alliances winning popularity in the Catalan regional elections.\r\n\r\nThere will no doubt be demonstrations for Basque independence etc all the time during the campaign and the old chestnuts about bribery and corruption inside the Spanish government will no doubt come to the forefront once again.\r\n\r\nIt is very uncertain what might happen in December, the only certainty is that Spain looks very fragmented at the moment.\r\n\r\nMore uncertainty.\r\n\r\nGERMANY SLOWING DOWN and VOLKSWAGEN:\r\n\r\nThe old powerhouse of the Eurozone is starting to suffer, production and employment is starting to pinch. At the same time the VW revelations could not have been brought to the forefront at a worse time. Allegedly many parties have known about the German “fiddle” for years. How did this remain undercover for so long is what I want to know. I will also bet there are other car manufacturers with twitchy bottoms as I have no doubt VW is NOT alone.\r\n\r\nIn any event, these pieces of news come at the wrong time, not that there is ever a good time.\r\n\r\nEUROZONE RECESSION and DEFLATION:\r\n\r\nThe majority of Europe is bouncing on the thin line between recession and growth.\r\n\r\nLike many other areas of the world, the Eurozone still suffers from DEFLATION. As I have stated on so many occasions, the central banker’s around the globe can feed an economy. They can use extraordinary measures to support their economies; they can almost pull a rabbit out of a hat. However the one thing that no one central banker has been able to do is find a possible solution for DEFLATION. It is the “Holy Grail” of central banking and right now there is more chance of “Hell freezing over” than a central banker finding the cure for DEFLATION.\r\n\r\nYikes…\r\n\r\nSo it’s back to the starting line once again for Mario Draghi. Yes, he has been here before but now he has several fronts on which to focus. The uncertainty of general elections may on the face of things be small fry, with new people around the table; a different style can cause friction. Tsipras is a classic example of this on how to ruffle the feathers of the cheese and wine drinking chappies and chapettes in Brussels.\r\n\r\nFactor into Draghi’s melting pot the U.S. jobs data and he must be thinking the old story, should the USA get a cold, the Eurozone gets the flu.\r\n\r\nMore QE is on the cards for the Eurozone. It is the only supportive action that he can take.\r\n\r\nHow the Eurogroup reacts to Greece will be pivotal. This time, Tsipras through no doing of his own may get a moral victory over the Eurogroup as the fragility of the Eurozone can not afford to be rocked or rather pushed over the edge of the cliff.\r\n\r\nThis action in my opinion will drive the EUR/USD towards parity.\r\n\r\nVery interesting times ahead.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:\r\n</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n3.1: SUMMARY OF YEAR TO DATE PERFORMANCE - 2015:\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>PREMIUM SERVICE – COST INCOME ANALYSIS (USD):</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">PROFITS FROM TRADE SET-UPS – to October 4th 2015.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">MICRO LOT TRADER - 522 trades cost to trade = $52.20\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 522 trades = <strong>$875.10</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">MINI LOT TRADER - 522 trades cost to trade = $522.00\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 522 trades = <strong>$8,751.00</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">STANDARD LOT TRADER - 522 trades cost to trade = $5,220.00\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 522 trades = <strong>$87,510.00</strong></p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n3.2: PREMIUM SERVICE – TRADE SUMMARIES MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/PS-PROFITS1-04102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6547\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/PS-PROFITS1-04102015.png\" alt=\"PS PROFITS1 04102015\" width=\"447\" height=\"418\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/PS-PROFITS2-04102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6548\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/PS-PROFITS2-04102015.png\" alt=\"PS PROFITS2 04102015\" width=\"457\" height=\"411\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNOTES:\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>If the above return from Forex Trading interests you go to my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> and check out the subscription options and special promotions under the tabs “PREMIUM SERVICE” and “PROMOTIONS”</li>\r\n	<li>The performance above is based off single-lot trade sizes.</li>\r\n	<li>THE PREMIUM SERVICE has subscribers with broker accounts of sizes ranging from $2,500 to over $100,000. A profitable trade is a profitable trade. It is all about trading according to the size of your broker account (EFFECTIVE POSITION SIZING) and applying RISK MANAGEMENT principles at all times.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n3.3: PREMIUM SERVICE – AUTUMN / FALL SUBSCRIBER PROMOTION\r\n\r\nBelow, I outline the SPECIAL PROMOTIONS that are in position until midnight 4<sup>th</sup> October 2015, EDT (New York time). September 2015.\r\n\r\nIf this is something that you are considering, now is the time to act. You will be able to establish your routine from now until the end of this year and then be ready from January 2016 for a complete year.<strong> </strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>IN OPERATION WITH MY PARTNER BROKER\r\nBLACKWELL GLOBAL</strong></p>\r\n<u>OPTION A:\r\n</u>\r\nOpen up a LIVE FX trading account with BLACKWELL GLOBAL using the link on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> and deposit USD$10,000.00 or more in your account and actively trade your account (minimum 8 trades per month) and you will receive a one year free subscription to the PREMIUM SERVICE GOLD subscription level, value USD$795.00.\r\n\r\n<u>OPTION B:\r\n</u>\r\nOpen up a LIVE FX trading account with BLACKWELL GLOBAL using the link on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> and deposit less than USD$10,000.00 in your account and actively trade your account (minimum 8 trades per month) and you will receive six months free subscription to the PREMIUM SERVICE SILVER subscription level, value USD$600.00.\r\nNOTE:\r\nEven if you already have an existing FX Broker relationship there is nothing to stop you having an additional broker. If you want to keep the PREMIUM SERVICE trades separate from your own trades this is an ideal way to benefit from an additional broker account.\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE bonus is in addition to any other offers that BLACKWELL GLOBAL may have in place at the time of subscribing.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>DIRECTLY WITH THE PREMIUM SERVICE\r\n</strong><strong>DOUBLE UP!</strong></p>\r\n<u>OPTION C:</u>\r\n\r\nWhether it is a SILVER or GOLD level subscription that you sign up for I will match the subscription.\r\n\r\n4 weeks SILVER will get you 8 weeks subscription for the same price USD$100.00\r\n\r\n10, 20 or 40 weeks subscriptions to the GOLD level means that I will double your subscription period. Sign up for one year at USD$795.00 and you will receive a bonus year free of charge.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGo to <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> to sign up for any of these options, or contact me at <a href=\"mailto:premiumservice@weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">premiumservice@weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> for further information if required.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) SUBSCRIBER CONTENT</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(The following section is additional data, thoughts, and ideas exclusively for PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) subscribers)\r\n\r\n4.1: THE PREMIUM SERVICE – TRADING REVIEW:\r\n\r\n4.2: MAJOR TRADING PAIRS WITH LONGER-TERM MATCHING TRENDS:\r\n\r\n4.3: THE PREMIUM SERVICE - LIVE TRADES ARE:\r\n\r\n4.4: THE PREMIUM SERVICE – LIMIT ORDER TRADES ARE:\r\n\r\n4.5: POTENTIAL TRADES - WHAT PAIRS / CHARTS AM I LOOKING AT?\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n	<li><strong> MY FINAL THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nOVERVIEW OF TRADING TIPS &amp; THOUGHTS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD:\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, patience is now the key trait to adopt moving forward. Do not be too hasty adding trades; let the dust settle following NFP.\r\n\r\nAs stated earlier, if ever there was a time for trading smaller position sizes to allow for a wider stop to cope with volatility, that time is now.\r\n\r\nThere are market-moving events and the markets have decided with the initial knee-jerk reaction that we are at the crossroads of change. The FOMC under Chair Yellen has said nothing. Be calm, be patient.\r\n\r\nIf we remain flexible as traders, we stand a good chance of reaching a point when we can achieve longevity in trading and provide an income.\r\n\r\nTake care\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nhttps://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\r\nBLOG REF #171','I BET YELLEN WISHED SHE’D HIKED RATES  LAST MONTH NOW!','','publish','open','closed','','i-bet-yellen-wished-shed-hiked-rates-last-month-now','','','2015-10-03 15:39:40','2015-10-03 20:39:40','',0,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?p=6575',0,'post','',0),(6576,1,'2015-10-03 15:38:26','2015-10-03 20:38:26','<h3 style=\"text-align: center;\">THE PREMIUM SERVICE\r\nfrom the\r\nWEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU\r\n“The Home of Single Lot Trading”</h3>\r\n<h3 style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong> </strong></h3>\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li><strong> THE VIEW FROM MY TRADE DESK:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nLOOKING BACKWARDS, FORWARDS &amp; SIDEWAYS (FOR GOOD MEASURE) AT THE FX MARKET:\r\n\r\n1.1: LOOKING BACKWARDS:\r\n\r\nOne big event dominated the news last week, which was of course U.S. Non-Farm payrolls, expected was 201k and we saw 142k. That was a big miss and the prior two months data was also revised down by 59k.\r\n\r\nWithin minutes of this number being released there was a sea of red all over my charts and twitter feeds were out looking for the Fed to backstop equities again via the re-introduction of Quantitative Easing (QE). The “sky is falling”, doom and gloom abound, the ECB would be on for more QE, the BOJ likewise and Carney at the BOE, well, God only knows what he’s going to say. Whatever it is he has to say, I would suggest that you do not believe him. I would also check to see if he has a JCB at the back of his office to dig himself a hole with.\r\n\r\nMoving on….\r\n\r\nNow, lets just take a step back.\r\n\r\nMonetary policy by central banks is not akin to a “knee-jerk” practice. Central bank monetary policy is like a huge oil tanker trying to turn around whilst out at sea. It takes about 5 miles to stop, then start turning, it’s all done very slowly and precisely. Central banks do not make up their monetary policy on the back of a cigarette packet (maybe Mark Carney does at the BOE?).\r\n\r\nPolicy is longer-term…it is conservative with a big C. These people who set policy and sit on these committees are generally dull and boring. An exciting day for an accountant is if the weatherman predicts rain and the sun shines. Basically, they are all accountants; they will never stick their necks out to make a decision that could in anyway be seen as innovative, courageous or revolutionary.\r\n\r\nWith this as a backdrop do you honestly believe that they will make a decision to alter policy on one months data?\r\n\r\nDo you not think they base policy more on cumulative results?\r\n\r\nI am saying that a rate hike is not off the table. It’s now back onto the timing once again. Time will tell, but I can assure you that Janet Yellen probably wished that she had hiked rates last month.\r\n\r\nMy reason for saying that I bet she wished she had already acted and not dithered is quite simple. At least today, she would have something put by for a rainy day. Right now with the children on Wall Street running around like headless chickens, she has nothing. I just cannot believe I read about QE. QE what number is it now, “QE IV” the son of QE “the FED chair bites back”?\r\n\r\nJanet Yellen’s dithering has caused this uncertainty, the very thing she claims she wants to avoid in the markets. Some will argue that the FOMC nailed the decision not to hike last month. Personally, I see it as dithering; we are talking about 0.25% after 7 years of zero, not a 3% rise, after all is the USA not the biggest economy in the world, you would think it could handle 0.25%. Are things really that fragile?\r\n\r\nFundamentally, there is a problem with the fact the data was poor. However, although I believe the FOMC will not react to just one month’s data, the fact that the numbers for the previous two months were revised lower, in my opinion was a killer to a rate hike later this month. The FOMC will consider much more than what we were presented with last Friday. However, in real terms all the data was pretty dire, from the hourly average earnings growth – which was flat and the participation rate, which is now at its lowest level for 38 years\r\n\r\nBTW, in 2015 why the hell do we still have revisions?\r\n\r\nIs it not possible for the greatest country on earth to manage this counting process more efficiently?\r\n\r\nWhy do we wait months to hear of these revisions?\r\n\r\nIf NFP is that important it should be delivered professionally, which in my opinion is NOT the way it is done today.\r\n\r\nGetting back on point….\r\n\r\nWhere do we go from here?\r\n\r\nNon Manufacturing ISM data is due this week. It has to be a blow out number. If not I would be very surprised to see an October move in the FED funds rate.\r\n\r\nIf this number is low, confidence will be low moving forward and this could be the catalyst for a rather dour winter. It is going to be so difficult for the FED to “lift-off”, in my opinion, they missed the moment and the opportunity was last month. As mentioned last week and again just above, the frightening aspect of all this for me is that we are only talking about 0.25%, you would think it was a 3% hike in discussion.\r\n\r\nTime will tell what the outcome is going to be, but as stated already, I think QE calls and low rates forever are rather premature.\r\n\r\nIn the name of sanity if the FED moved policy on every bit of economic data they would be as dysfunctional as the politicians on Capitol Hill.\r\n\r\nI really do think the moment was missed and to “lift-off” now is difficult. The FOMC really have created a problem for themselves that they should never have had in the first place. Dithering has created huge uncertainty.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n1.2: LOOKING FORWARD:\r\n\r\nMAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:\r\n(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market other than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to <a href=\"http://www.forexfactory.com\">www.forexfactory.com</a> and <a href=\"http://www.tradingeconomics.com\">www.tradingeconomics.com</a> for a more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).\r\nSUNDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMi.\r\nMONDAY: AUD – Trade Balance and RBA Rate Statement.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: USD – Trade Balance.\r\nTUESDAY: CAD – Trade Balance.\r\nTUESDAY: NZD – Dairy Auction Prices.\r\nTUESDAY: EUR – Words of wisdom from Mario Draghi (ECB)\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: BOJ – Monetary Policy Statement &amp; Press Conference.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: USD – FOMC Meeting Minutes.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: CAD – Employment data and words from Stephen Poloz (BOC).\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMY THOUGHTS ON THE NEWS ITEMS THIS COMING WEEK:\r\n\r\nThe ISM data in the U.S. will be eagerly awaited on Tuesday. If that comes in weak, the cries for a rate hike in late 2016 will gather momentum\r\n\r\nI am looking forward to hearing what Draghi has to say, I would not like to be in his shoes this weekend pouring out his cornflakes. If the U.S. really is on a slowdown the Eurozone is going into deep, deep, (deeper than Mark Carneys hole with his JCB in) recession, absolutely no doubt about it. If this whole event gathers traction it will make 2009 look like the tea party from Alice in Wonderland.\r\n\r\nEqually, the BOJ comments will be interesting, however, to round off the week we have “Ostrich Man” (Stephen Poloz), “everything is great in Canada, but let me just bury my head in the sand” to contend with. My ars* its great, open your ears and listen…. He will be delivering a few choice words Friday afternoon after the employment data is released on the same morning. There will be a rate cut in Canada sooner rather than later, Federal Election or not later this month. I have been saying this for weeks now, and the U.S. reaction to the NFP data will have Poloz sitting on his “throne” (toilet) most of the weekend. He has a dilemma…he has to chose between doing his job or sucking up to Stephen Harper, Canadian Prime Minister prior to the election. His language could give clues, that\'s if you can hear him through sand.\r\n\r\nThis week the on-going reaction to the NFP data will drive the Forex Market. Whether we believe it should or not is totally irrelevant, but believe me it will. This continual news item of a FED rate hike has been with us for 6 months now and I for one am sick of hearing about it. I cannot stomach ditherers.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMY KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS THIS WEEK FOR USD MAJORS<strong>:</strong>\r\n\r\nIn this section I have as usual kept my charts as minimalist as possible. All readers regardless of level of experience should be able to follow my thoughts from my comments to the levels on the charts with ease.\r\n\r\nEUR/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.1192\r\n\r\nAfter all the shenanigans of last Friday, we closed last week just one pip higher than the previous week. Moves in the EUR/USD are going to be watched very closely now, even more so than usual as this pair is going to be really sensitive to breaking news. Do not get me wrong, it always has been sensitive, but now I am expecting stupid moves for no apparent reason like we saw in 2009.\r\n\r\nWe also have to consider the Eurozone reactions, it’s not all about the USA, and the Eurozone has its own issues to overcome. However, in the Eurozone they do not overcome they prefer to “can-kick“ issues / problems, hoping it all goes away. But there are issues and ramifications from NFP that the Eurozone will have to consider moving forward and this will create volatility.\r\n\r\nAfter NFP the EUR/USD rallied about 150 pips and stopped at 1.1325. I see this level as resistance now with 1.1090 being support.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURUSDDaily02102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6558\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURUSDDaily02102015.png\" alt=\"EURUSDDaily02102015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.5176\r\n\r\nThe cable ended the week just 6 pips higher than the previous weekly close. Cable looks weak. The GBP cross rates look weak. I hate trading cable; it is the master of false moves. I feel a bit worried writing that in spite of everything that happened last week the future of cable is lower, more like 1.4000 than 1.5000.\r\n\r\nThe cross rate effect could weigh in quite heavily on movements in the GBP/USD.\r\n\r\nThe highly publicized GBP/CAD head and shoulders measured move triggered late last week. It is a potential move of 1,000 pips lower<strong>. </strong>The move lower started in the last hour of North American trading. At that time we have totally illiquid markets, with very light volumes that promote exacerbated moves for such a thinly traded pair. Nevertheless, it moved, but the jury is still out, until at least the European close on Monday on whether it\'s a legitimate confirmed move.\r\n\r\nActivity in the EUR/GBP will become quite twitchy, as the Eurozone issues start to weigh in more. As the EUR sells off the EUR/GBP will rise placing upward pressure on GBP/USD and should the GBP/CAD drop off as a result of the continued out of nowhere CAD strength coming into the market, the GBP/USD could tread water as cross-rate effects could nullify any moves. Even if the oil price drops which, I think it will, and the CAD weakens as a result, the trading volumes in the EUR/GBP are so great on its own it could still create the GBP/USD appearance of just treading water.\r\n\r\nWhat I am saying here is the GBP/USD may not be a straightforward a trade as you might first believe, having said that I do think that it will be downside pressured.\r\n\r\nSupport is big at 1.5085 and resistance is good at 1.5250.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPUSDWeekly02102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6559\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPUSDWeekly02102015.png\" alt=\"GBPUSDWeekly02102015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.7028\r\n\r\nThis pair failed to break higher. This has surprised me a great deal. I have resisted for a week or so now from trading this pair to the short side, as I believed we were going to see a move to 0.7200, from where I was ready to short.\r\n\r\nWe are in a range from support at 0.6940 to resistance at 0.7050 and then 0.7110.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AUDUSDDaily02102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6557\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AUDUSDDaily02102015.png\" alt=\"AUDUSDDaily02102015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.6416\r\n\r\nThis pair has a very similar story to the Aussie. I had a short for a couple of days last week, took +30 pips on it and closed it just prior to NFP. I will re-short through the PREMIUM SERVICE early this week. Our levels are clearly defined, as are my outer levels from the FOMC Press Conference day last month.\r\n\r\nSupport is at 0.6350 then at 0.6240, with resistance at 0.6465 and 0.6490.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/NZDUSDDaily02102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6560\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/NZDUSDDaily02102015.png\" alt=\"NZDUSDDaily02102015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.3151\r\n\r\nI am long this pair and not completely comfortable at the moment, the GBP/CAD sell off into the close pulled the USD/CAD to close at its lows last Friday. I am not a happy teddy with this one.\r\n\r\nLonger-term the BOC will cut rates. Oil will fall as demand shrinks even more as confidence fails around the globe. The Canadian economy is on the brink; in fact it’s already in what is now termed a “technical recession”. Yup…. you cannot say DEFLATION anymore, its now called “disinflation” and RECESSION is now referred to as a “technical RECESSION” by the BOC. The use of the term Happy Holidays was bad enough for me, this is now just utter bulls**t.\r\n\r\nLonger-term I believe that the USD/CAD is going above the recent failed breakout level of 1.3460. I see at least a move in the medium term to 1.4000. There is even a longer-term “cup and handle” that has a projected measured move of 1.6000.\r\n\r\nIn the present, we cannot rule out a test of the bull-bear line in the sand of 1.3160. However, that is the worst-case scenario. It is the CAD$ reaction to oil that will be key to its near-term moves.\r\n\r\nSupport is at 1.3110 and resistance at 1.3230. A break above 1.3230 could see a re-test of the break out level once again.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCADDaily02102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6561\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCADDaily02102015.png\" alt=\"USDCADDaily02102015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF - Weekly Closing Price: 0.9714\r\n\r\nI am long this pair. We were so close to the breakout on Friday just ahead of NFP, and then we had a +150 pip drop. I am a little concerned that as the EUR/USD sold off into the close that this pair did not close around 0.9750.\r\n\r\nFundamentally, this pair is going back above parity and it should be taking all the CHF pairs with it. Do not rule out Thomas Jordan (SNB) coming out to play to manipulate the EUR/CHF. They want this pair above 1.1000 as a minimum and it is struggling around 1.0900. Should the SNB intervene, the CHF will sell-off and my long trades will be very profitable.\r\n\r\nThe bottom line is that the SNB has sat back for over 6 months, unless we see Eurozone action the SNB may act.\r\n\r\nBack to the present, this pair is supported at 0.9650 and 0.9580 and resistance now is at 0.9750 and 0.9820.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCHFDaily02102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6562\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCHFDaily02102015.png\" alt=\"USDCHFDaily02102015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY - Weekly Closing Price: 119.88\r\n\r\nBeing sensitive to equity prices is should not be a surprise to note that last Friday this pair was as high as 120.40 and as low as 118.65. A wild ride and when you consider it pulled back off its lows to close just below 120.00 it was quite a day. All JPY pairs except the CHF/JPY basically had the same roller coaster ride.\r\n\r\nThe BOJ are front and centre this week with a policy statement, this could be fun. The range mentioned above is the support and resistance to take note of moving forward this week.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDJPYDaily02102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6563\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDJPYDaily02102015.png\" alt=\"USDJPYDaily02102015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n1.3: LOOKING SIDEWAYS (FOR GOOD MEASURE):\r\n\r\nIf ever there was a time to keep your trading a little lighter and your position sizes a little smaller it is now.\r\n\r\nWe have uncertainty.\r\n\r\nWe have a FED that dithers.\r\n\r\nWe have a world market taken by surprise by the NFP numbers.\r\n\r\nWe also have the EUROZONE moving back to the edge again (see later in Section 2.)\r\n\r\nWhether or not we believe the hype is not important. There are “fat cats” on Wall Street who are loving this moment, as they can visualize the FED backstopping equity prices for another prolonged period. The “fat cats” can get fatter, if they can encourage panic, and fear.\r\n\r\nPanic / Fear and Greed all mean uncertainty and volatility.\r\n\r\nTo me as a seasoned trader it tells me to slow down, cut back, and wait a little to let the dust settle. There are no prizes in Forex for guessing, the market takes no prisoners, it is 100% totally unforgiving.\r\n\r\nI have nothing else to say here except be careful. The markets are now going to be driven by news events and quotations correctly or incorrectly attributed to someone and both FUNDAMENTALS and TECHNICALS in these situations mean nothing.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n	<li><strong> WHAT’S ON MY MIND:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>THE FORGOTTEN STORY…</strong>\r\n<strong> THE EUROZONE IS DRIFTING</strong>\r\n<strong> BACK TO THE PRECIPICE ONCE AGAIN</strong></p>\r\nThe Eurozone is the forgotten story. Everything has been FOMC this, FOMC that, will Yellen do this or should Yellen do that.\r\n\r\nWhilst all the FOMC stuff has been going on, the Eurozone has been drifting. Events that would have had airtime on TV and column space in the written media have really for want of a better word been minimalized.\r\n\r\nGreece is no longer trendy; the American commentators do not understand the culture. So instead of trying to understand it, the approach is just to ignore it…. It might go away. Sadly, just like the GOP would love Donald Trump to go away so they could have a “YES” man controlling the polls, he isn’t and he won’t, and nor will Greece.\r\n\r\nMy Eurozone headlines are: -\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>GREECE</li>\r\n	<li>PORTUGAL</li>\r\n	<li>SPAIN</li>\r\n	<li>GERMANY SLOWDOWN</li>\r\n	<li>RECESSION and DEFLATION</li>\r\n	<li>VOLKSWAGEN</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThe above five topics have Mario hoping, wishing, pondering, panicking and probably praying all at once. Oh, I forgot possibly drinking as well. I know I would be, if I were carrying these issues.\r\n\r\nLet me be brief about each point this week and over the coming weeks I will place more flesh on the bone: -\r\n\r\nGREECE:\r\n\r\nAlexis Tsipras (Syriza Party) was re-elected as Prime Minister. He pledged to the EU that he would implement, deficit-reduction measures including tax rises, changes to pensions and social welfare cuts in return for an €86 billion bailout. He has to persuade the Eurogroup later this month that the terms of the bailout are being met and are on time. His initial meeting to show progress was originally set for Monday October 5<sup>th</sup>, but I cannot confirm the date, or whether it has been re-scheduled due to the recent elections. Maybe it’s just no longer on the calendar.\r\n\r\nThe IMF has stated that unless there is an “explicit and concrete” agreement on debt relief for Greece that it may refuse to be a party to the bailout. Germany does NOT want any Greek debt relief.\r\n\r\nCulturally, Tsipras (always the chancer) believes that an election win will give him some clout when dealing with his creditors to negotiate debt relief and less onerous austerity measures. This is at complete odds with Germany and the European Institutions that imposed the draconian measures on Greece in the name of fiscal discipline. Basically, the bailout terms gives the Eurozone a host of powers over Greece when it comes to policymaking.\r\n\r\nWe haven’t heard from “the pit-bull” recently but Schaeuble is bound to be on the wires very soon scathing about the fact the Greeks will not have completed the reforms agreed to in the bailout within the timescales allocated.\r\n\r\nThe Germans with their rush to get the bailout through never got the IMF on side to hold the privatization trust fund to supposedly hold Greek assets worth about €50 billion.\r\n\r\nYes, it’s another Eurozone mess. I cannot find out if Monday’s initially proposed meeting to show its creditors what has been achieved is on / off or re-scheduled.\r\n\r\nBy November 15<sup>th</sup> if the actions taken by Greece are in accordance with the bailout they get some €2 billion in dosh!\r\n\r\nThe last we heard from Jeroen Dijsselbloem (Eurogroup leader) was that if Greece did not follow the detail of the agreed bailout to the letter, there would be no tranches payable to them. I have no doubt that the pit-bull would echo those comments, and if he had the power he would follow through.\r\n\r\nSomehow I just think the can kicking will start all over gain. This story will gather more momentum as time goes on.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nPORTUGAL:\r\n\r\nIt’s election time. The centre-right party led by Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho is running neck and neck with the socialist party and political stalemate looks the likely outcome.\r\n\r\nWhen coming to power in 2011, if you recall, the government was taken to task for imposing tax hikes, and making cuts in salaries, pensions and public services. The Socialist opposition led by Antonio Costa, claimed the austerity measures taken went way too far beyond the terms of the €78 billion bailout deal agreed with the prior socialist government.\r\n\r\nIt is therefore quite remarkable that Coelho is still in the running to form a new government. He has had a tough period in charge with a record 17% unemployment level, 4% of the population has emigrated since 2011 and continual strikes and mass demonstrations have at times paralyzed Lisbon. How the hell has this guy stayed in the running? Costa must be weak, you would think.\r\n\r\nThe numbers on practically everything have improved of late, unemployment this year is down 4% and Coelho claims his tough measures are working now for the good of the country.\r\n\r\nThe problem is electoral stalemate. Uncertainty and instability are created, and whilst both parties believe it or not have very similar manifestos, the cores of each party are very diverse.\r\n\r\nIf a stalemate election result creates fragility moving forward this could push Portugal backwards once again. Within the Eurozone Portugal is famous for having one of the worst debt to GDP ratios at 130%.\r\n\r\nSPAIN:\r\n\r\nPrime Minister Mariano Rajoy has called a Christmas election for December 20<sup>th</sup>. There are massive fragmentation risks in Spain, with the separatist alliances winning popularity in the Catalan regional elections.\r\n\r\nThere will no doubt be demonstrations for Basque independence etc all the time during the campaign and the old chestnuts about bribery and corruption inside the Spanish government will no doubt come to the forefront once again.\r\n\r\nIt is very uncertain what might happen in December, the only certainty is that Spain looks very fragmented at the moment.\r\n\r\nMore uncertainty.\r\n\r\nGERMANY SLOWING DOWN and VOLKSWAGEN:\r\n\r\nThe old powerhouse of the Eurozone is starting to suffer, production and employment is starting to pinch. At the same time the VW revelations could not have been brought to the forefront at a worse time. Allegedly many parties have known about the German “fiddle” for years. How did this remain undercover for so long is what I want to know. I will also bet there are other car manufacturers with twitchy bottoms as I have no doubt VW is NOT alone.\r\n\r\nIn any event, these pieces of news come at the wrong time, not that there is ever a good time.\r\n\r\nEUROZONE RECESSION and DEFLATION:\r\n\r\nThe majority of Europe is bouncing on the thin line between recession and growth.\r\n\r\nLike many other areas of the world, the Eurozone still suffers from DEFLATION. As I have stated on so many occasions, the central banker’s around the globe can feed an economy. They can use extraordinary measures to support their economies; they can almost pull a rabbit out of a hat. However the one thing that no one central banker has been able to do is find a possible solution for DEFLATION. It is the “Holy Grail” of central banking and right now there is more chance of “Hell freezing over” than a central banker finding the cure for DEFLATION.\r\n\r\nYikes…\r\n\r\nSo it’s back to the starting line once again for Mario Draghi. Yes, he has been here before but now he has several fronts on which to focus. The uncertainty of general elections may on the face of things be small fry, with new people around the table; a different style can cause friction. Tsipras is a classic example of this on how to ruffle the feathers of the cheese and wine drinking chappies and chapettes in Brussels.\r\n\r\nFactor into Draghi’s melting pot the U.S. jobs data and he must be thinking the old story, should the USA get a cold, the Eurozone gets the flu.\r\n\r\nMore QE is on the cards for the Eurozone. It is the only supportive action that he can take.\r\n\r\nHow the Eurogroup reacts to Greece will be pivotal. This time, Tsipras through no doing of his own may get a moral victory over the Eurogroup as the fragility of the Eurozone can not afford to be rocked or rather pushed over the edge of the cliff.\r\n\r\nThis action in my opinion will drive the EUR/USD towards parity.\r\n\r\nVery interesting times ahead.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:\r\n</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n3.1: SUMMARY OF YEAR TO DATE PERFORMANCE - 2015:\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>PREMIUM SERVICE – COST INCOME ANALYSIS (USD):</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">PROFITS FROM TRADE SET-UPS – to October 4th 2015.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">MICRO LOT TRADER - 522 trades cost to trade = $52.20\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 522 trades = <strong>$875.10</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">MINI LOT TRADER - 522 trades cost to trade = $522.00\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 522 trades = <strong>$8,751.00</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">STANDARD LOT TRADER - 522 trades cost to trade = $5,220.00\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 522 trades = <strong>$87,510.00</strong></p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n3.2: PREMIUM SERVICE – TRADE SUMMARIES MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/PS-PROFITS1-04102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6547\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/PS-PROFITS1-04102015.png\" alt=\"PS PROFITS1 04102015\" width=\"447\" height=\"418\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/PS-PROFITS2-04102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6548\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/PS-PROFITS2-04102015.png\" alt=\"PS PROFITS2 04102015\" width=\"457\" height=\"411\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNOTES:\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>If the above return from Forex Trading interests you go to my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> and check out the subscription options and special promotions under the tabs “PREMIUM SERVICE” and “PROMOTIONS”</li>\r\n	<li>The performance above is based off single-lot trade sizes.</li>\r\n	<li>THE PREMIUM SERVICE has subscribers with broker accounts of sizes ranging from $2,500 to over $100,000. A profitable trade is a profitable trade. It is all about trading according to the size of your broker account (EFFECTIVE POSITION SIZING) and applying RISK MANAGEMENT principles at all times.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n3.3: PREMIUM SERVICE – AUTUMN / FALL SUBSCRIBER PROMOTION\r\n\r\nBelow, I outline the SPECIAL PROMOTIONS that are in position until midnight 4<sup>th</sup> October 2015, EDT (New York time). September 2015.\r\n\r\nIf this is something that you are considering, now is the time to act. You will be able to establish your routine from now until the end of this year and then be ready from January 2016 for a complete year.<strong> </strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>IN OPERATION WITH MY PARTNER BROKER\r\nBLACKWELL GLOBAL</strong></p>\r\n<u>OPTION A:\r\n</u>\r\nOpen up a LIVE FX trading account with BLACKWELL GLOBAL using the link on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> and deposit USD$10,000.00 or more in your account and actively trade your account (minimum 8 trades per month) and you will receive a one year free subscription to the PREMIUM SERVICE GOLD subscription level, value USD$795.00.\r\n\r\n<u>OPTION B:\r\n</u>\r\nOpen up a LIVE FX trading account with BLACKWELL GLOBAL using the link on my website <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> and deposit less than USD$10,000.00 in your account and actively trade your account (minimum 8 trades per month) and you will receive six months free subscription to the PREMIUM SERVICE SILVER subscription level, value USD$600.00.\r\nNOTE:\r\nEven if you already have an existing FX Broker relationship there is nothing to stop you having an additional broker. If you want to keep the PREMIUM SERVICE trades separate from your own trades this is an ideal way to benefit from an additional broker account.\r\n\r\nThe PREMIUM SERVICE bonus is in addition to any other offers that BLACKWELL GLOBAL may have in place at the time of subscribing.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>DIRECTLY WITH THE PREMIUM SERVICE\r\n</strong><strong>DOUBLE UP!</strong></p>\r\n<u>OPTION C:</u>\r\n\r\nWhether it is a SILVER or GOLD level subscription that you sign up for I will match the subscription.\r\n\r\n4 weeks SILVER will get you 8 weeks subscription for the same price USD$100.00\r\n\r\n10, 20 or 40 weeks subscriptions to the GOLD level means that I will double your subscription period. Sign up for one year at USD$795.00 and you will receive a bonus year free of charge.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGo to <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> to sign up for any of these options, or contact me at <a href=\"mailto:premiumservice@weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">premiumservice@weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> for further information if required.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) SUBSCRIBER CONTENT</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(The following section is additional data, thoughts, and ideas exclusively for PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) subscribers)\r\n\r\n4.1: THE PREMIUM SERVICE – TRADING REVIEW:\r\n\r\n4.2: MAJOR TRADING PAIRS WITH LONGER-TERM MATCHING TRENDS:\r\n\r\n4.3: THE PREMIUM SERVICE - LIVE TRADES ARE:\r\n\r\n4.4: THE PREMIUM SERVICE – LIMIT ORDER TRADES ARE:\r\n\r\n4.5: POTENTIAL TRADES - WHAT PAIRS / CHARTS AM I LOOKING AT?\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n	<li><strong> MY FINAL THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nOVERVIEW OF TRADING TIPS &amp; THOUGHTS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD:\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, patience is now the key trait to adopt moving forward. Do not be too hasty adding trades; let the dust settle following NFP.\r\n\r\nAs stated earlier, if ever there was a time for trading smaller position sizes to allow for a wider stop to cope with volatility, that time is now.\r\n\r\nThere are market-moving events and the markets have decided with the initial knee-jerk reaction that we are at the crossroads of change. The FOMC under Chair Yellen has said nothing. Be calm, be patient.\r\n\r\nIf we remain flexible as traders, we stand a good chance of reaching a point when we can achieve longevity in trading and provide an income.\r\n\r\nTake care\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nhttps://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\r\nBLOG REF #171','I BET YELLEN WISHED SHE’D HIKED RATES  LAST MONTH NOW!','','inherit','closed','closed','','6575-revision-v1','','','2015-10-03 15:38:26','2015-10-03 20:38:26','',6575,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/6575-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(6605,1,'2015-10-10 14:16:55','2015-10-10 19:16:55','<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>THE PREMIUM SERVICE</strong>\r\n<strong>from the</strong>\r\n<strong>WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU</strong>\r\n<strong>“The Home of Single Lot Trading”</strong></p>\r\n\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li><strong> THE VIEW FROM MY TRADE DESK:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nLOOKING BACKWARDS, FORWARDS &amp; SIDEWAYS (FOR GOOD MEASURE) AT THE FX MARKET:\r\n\r\n1.1: LOOKING BACKWARDS:\r\n\r\nLast week it was all about U.S. Non Farm Payrolls, this week the FOMC meeting minutes from the meeting on September 17<sup>th </sup>took its place.\r\n\r\nFrom my perspective, given that the NFP data came after the last FOMC meeting and following the meeting there was so much press coverage of why the FED kept rates on hold, I expected the minutes to be a damp squib. Basically, unless they were tampered with, nothing new would be seen. The minutes gave me nothing new and following the release of the minutes all the “FED speak” has been basically around who is up for a rate hike in 2015 and who is into 2016 and beyond.\r\n\r\nThe end result = limbo = uncertainty, which in turn equals twitchy bottoms behind the trade desks.\r\n\r\nFrom a Forex perspective, this uncertainty has produced a break in commodity pressure and the commodity currencies; AUD, NZD and CAD in particular have all strengthened as a result.\r\n\r\nHowever, do they not look a little over-stretched now?\r\n\r\nMy main article in section 2 of this blog makes a few observations on this point.\r\n\r\nWe also heard from the BOJ, who are keeping things on hold, but there is huge interest in selling JPY as the rumours about the BOJ adding further quantitative easing (QE) at the end of this month are gathering momentum.\r\n\r\nPersonally, I do not see that QE has ever worked. If it is meant to be just a currency manipulation tool, then it does work. However, the various central banks that have adopted QE believe it a policy weapon to boost and strengthen flagging economies amongst other things. It keeps stock market prices inflated by providing a backstop to institutions; if you know the FED will support the markets with cash you have nothing to lose. You may recall the cartoon of Ben Bernanke in a helicopter dropping wads of cash over Wall Street and Chicago, Bernanke then became known as “Helicopter Ben”.\r\n\r\nThe financial markets on Wall Street may have been supported by QE, but the consumer confidence of Main Street, well, it simply did NOT happen. Housing is still weaker than expected and the U.S. economy has NOT bounced. 7 years on and we are still waiting. I have serious doubts over the effectiveness of QE unless its single purpose (denied of course) is to bolster equities.\r\n\r\nThe poster boy of QE, the FED the biggest and best in the world should note that after 7 years of zero interest rates they are sh*t scared to raise interest rates from zero by 0.25%..... someone please give me a fecking break…. QE is not all it’s cracked up to be, and, simply put it just has NOT worked.\r\n\r\nI just don\'t get it. The sooner we have the media proclaimed “Rock God’s” who are the beloved central bank governors or presidents own up to the fact that we are in a currency war and admit that they haven’t got a clue on how to tackle DEFLATION the better. Maybe then, the markets will be able to move and react better, rather than give us this very false position of relationship pricing that we have at the moment.\r\n\r\nSo, will the BOJ add more QE at the end of the month?\r\n\r\nHere’s my suggestion, Mr. Kuroda and Mr. Abe, give your dosh to me as I can waste your money just as efficiently as you guys can!!\r\n\r\nI cannot pass up the opportunity to talk about the next presenter for a BBC TV programme called Jackanory (Google it).\r\n\r\nMark Carney, he’s off on one again. For the love of God, the UK is NOT going to raise rates ahead of the FED. In the name of sanity, who believes this guy? Every time he speaks at a major media event, he changes his tune and contradicts or denies what was previously said within a few days. I am not wasting more words on this man because it is just farcical.\r\n\r\nCarney (BOE) and Wheeler (RBNZ) would make a great comedy stage act in the West End Theatres (London). They could be memory men, each testing the other on what they just said. With a few drinks it could be entertaining, but I wouldn’t pay for it.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n1.2: LOOKING FORWARD:\r\n\r\nMAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:\r\n\r\n(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market other than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to <a href=\"http://www.forexfactory.com\">www.forexfactory.com</a> and <a href=\"http://www.tradingeconomics.com\">www.tradingeconomics.com</a> for a more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).\r\n\r\nSUNDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: AUD – NAB Business Confidence.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: CNY – Trade balance and CPi.\r\nTUESDAY: GBP – CPi.\r\nTUESDAY: EUR – German ZEW Economic Sentiment.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: GBP – Employment Data.\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – Core Retail Sales and PPi.\r\nWEDNESDAY: AUD – Employment Data.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: USD – Core CPi.\r\nTHURSDAY: NZD – CPi.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: CAD – Manufacturing Sales.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMY THOUGHTS ON THE NEWS ITEMS THIS COMING WEEK:\r\n\r\nTo be frank, not a lot really warms my belly.\r\n\r\nI am not short the AUD at the moment as I think there is a bit higher we can see with the AUD/USD. It feels strange not being short all the commodity currencies so I will follow the AUD news closely. In addition, the Chinese data will be interesting to follow.\r\n\r\nI am bored writing about this next point, so you readers could be fed up reading it. The Core CPi and Retail Sales from the U.S. will be used to give hints on the FED rate hike. Maybe we are at the point of another weeks worth of crappy data from the U.S., which will kill off any thoughts of a rate hike in 2015. I can guarantee you that Janet Yellen will be beating herself up for not raising in September, or earlier in the year. Dithering never pays off in anything, it only frustrates and annoys all around you. The uncertainty will just go on and on hanging over the U.S. economy which by all accounts looks to be heading towards a recession if we carry on seeing poor data after poor data releases.\r\n\r\nTime will tell.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMY KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS THIS WEEK FOR USD MAJORS<strong>:</strong>\r\n\r\nIn this section I have as usual kept my charts as minimalist as possible. All readers regardless of level of experience should be able to follow my thoughts from my comments to the levels on the charts with ease.\r\n\r\nEUR/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.1361\r\n\r\nWe are range bound albeit in quite a big range as shown on the chart below; 1.1088 to 1.1459.\r\n\r\nThe daily chart looks bullish although we are now about 100 pips away from the highs seen straight after the FOMC “rates on hold” meeting last month. This could be a great area to short from if you have the patience to wait.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURUSDDaily11102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6594\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURUSDDaily11102015.png\" alt=\"EURUSDDaily11102015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.5315\r\n\r\nCable has been flip-flopping around as usual. We saw a couple of days last week when we were at the precipice only to see the bounce and then just as the market gets “bulled up”, bam…. the cable reverses.\r\n\r\nNothing new the GBP/USD is the master of false moves.\r\n\r\nWe look to be heading lower with the longer-term trend once again. From my perspective a break below through 1.5280 and definitely below 1.5200 should place the bears back in the driving seat once again.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPUSDDaily11102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6595\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPUSDDaily11102015.png\" alt=\"GBPUSDDaily11102015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.7336\r\n\r\nI read this pair wrong recently. I did not expect Glenn Stevens (RBA Governor) to go “girlie” and suggest that the RBA was now neutral. Add to this the commodity rush to buy this pair, which has resulted in elevating its value towards 0.7380, the 127.6% Fibonacci level. Looks like a great short to me at this level. Be patient and wait.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AUDUSDDailyBOOM-CHART11092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6596\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AUDUSDDailyBOOM-CHART11092015.png\" alt=\"AUDUSDDailyBOOM CHART11092015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.6694\r\n\r\nI remember when I used to repeatedly call out to my parents from the back of the car when we were going somewhere exciting…. “Are we there yet?”\r\n\r\nWe could be, this is the area maybe to test a short. Remember the RBNZ is hawkish. At least that was the impression I got last time from “Wheeler the dealer” and his side kick English at the RBNZ.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/NZDUSDWeeklyBOOM-CHART-11102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6597\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/NZDUSDWeeklyBOOM-CHART-11102015.png\" alt=\"NZDUSDWeeklyBOOM CHART 11102015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.2945\r\n\r\nI took a massive hit with this pair last week. We move on…. upwards to infinity and beyond. Well not quite… all I wanted last week was 1.3350.\r\n\r\nI see a BOC rate cut on the horizon after the election. The jobs data was surprisingly good last week. But alas…a huge word of warning, the job numbers came from the country that provided inaccurate jobs data for the best part of 2014. So it’s not just the Chinese data that you should question.\r\n\r\nI live in Quebec, the poor part of Canada, it is geographically huge (like most parts of Canada) and it has a huge population percentage of the Canadian total. It is dogged with huge problems all self-inflicted with complete and utter bloody mindedness and stubbornness at the heart/root of the issues that have plagued the province for decades. Quebec is failing, it lacks investment; jobs are disappearing because of its deep-rooted issues. Companies just give up and move out. The tension over language dominates everything and no one gives a rat’s hairy ar** that Quebec is imploding. It is language that is perceived to be important. Not jobs, health, education and infrastructure…. just language. The downward spiral in Quebec has been gathering a pace for years; it personifies uncertainty in every aspect and definition of the word.\r\n\r\nOn top of the Quebec issues, we have crashing oil prices and the job cut backs in Alberta and the service industries that support the Canadian oil industry from Ontario and British Columbia. In addition, the exchange rate difficulties that lower oil prices have on the USD/CAD relationship with Canada’s neighbour the USA, flags… Houston we have a problem.\r\n\r\nConsumer confidence numbers in Quebec have never been good but add in a few more provinces with issues and it’s not a pretty picture. Canada could mask the stupidity of Quebec, but not when more pieces of the jigsaw come apart.\r\n\r\nIf the oil price falls below $40.00 as I think it will, and we have a rate cut, which I think is a case of when and NOT if, we could have the USD/CAD at 1.5000-1.6000.\r\n\r\nWe are still in a bullish trend despite the recent sell-off. There are buying opportunities in my opinion.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCADWeekly11102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6598\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCADWeekly11102015.png\" alt=\"USDCADWeekly11102015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF - Weekly Closing Price: 0.9613\r\n\r\nI am STILL long this pair.\r\n\r\nI do expect it to breakout higher. I see 0.9550 as a big test should we drop to this level. I am prepared for it but do not like it. It is like an impending visit to the dentist hanging over me.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCHFDaily11102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6599\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCHFDaily11102015.png\" alt=\"USDCHFDaily11102015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY - Weekly Closing Price: 120.20\r\n\r\nThis pair is being speculated upon at the moment. Large-scale investors looking for a quick few dollars are banking on the BOJ adding more quantitative easing (QE) at the end of this month. I have already made my views known on the effectiveness of QE. That does not mean that I am correct. It is just my opinion. This pair could be one of those Forex great trades of “Buy the rumour sell the news”. 122.00 will be a key obstacle level of resistance to break, if the buying frenzy intensifies as we approach the end of the month.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDJPYDaily11102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6600\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDJPYDaily11102015.png\" alt=\"USDJPYDaily11102015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n1.3: LOOKING SIDEWAYS (FOR GOOD MEASURE):\r\n\r\nThis week I want to focus a little on liquidity and how the volumes in the Forex market are changing and how this affects us as traders.\r\n\r\nThe reason that I want to talk about this is that I noticed a huge change after the summer this year. In writing about this, I realize that the FOMC meeting that took place on September 17<sup>th</sup> may have been a deciding factor in low liquidity lasting longer than usual, with institutional and senior bank market makers staying out and away from trading activity for longer.\r\n\r\nVolumes are down and liquidity is thinner. This means we have to be a bit more savvy. What do I mean?\r\n\r\nThis is not just about the hours to trade there is a knock-on effect for currency pairs to trade as well in my opinion.\r\n\r\nThe Forex trading hours are 24 hours a day 5 days a week. Within these hours there are peak trading times with good volumes of cash flowing in and out of the market and then there are thin trading times when liquidity and cash in and out is poor by comparison to the better volume hours.\r\n\r\nBasically I see it as follows: -\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/FX-TRADING-TIMES-11102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6593\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/FX-TRADING-TIMES-11102015.png\" alt=\"FX TRADING TIMES 11102015\" width=\"820\" height=\"351\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe major financial centre times for trading are marked in RED by the hours that they are open.\r\n\r\nBeneath this, I have what I call the previous best times to trade shown in BLUE.\r\n\r\nAt the foot of the table is what I am calling the best times to trade Forex shown in GREEN.\r\n\r\nMy revisions are based on times when there are what I call good two-way flows.\r\n\r\nJust like trading the EUR/USD you know that it always has great liquidity and two-way action. The markets are the same.\r\n\r\nThe Forex market has changed and liquidity flowing through into the markets is stronger when markets open up to start trading and again when two markets are open together.\r\n\r\nOverall, Forex market trading volumes are lower, less cash is being placed into Forex therefore it stands to reason that all the markets will suffer. The worst markets for liquidity are those open in Asian trading, these are now more likely to have wilder swing moves and we have seen some rather strange breakout moves only to be swatted back into line when London opens and liquidity improves.\r\n\r\nBoth London and New York are victims of lower liquidity, they are not exempt, but the fact is they are the powerhouses of the Forex Market and whilst lower volumes may be placed through these markets, volumes are still acceptable as they were in 2014, as far as I am concerned.\r\n\r\nWithout doubt, the European / North American session when running together offers the best trading conditions.\r\n\r\nWith regards to currencies, the exotic currencies, which see lower volumes in any case, will be more of a minefield if the overall market is starved of liquidity.\r\n\r\nTherefore looking specifically at the Asian session, which in my opinion is the most troublesome. Trading the USD majors will always offer better liquidity along with the EUR/JPY, EUR/GBP.\r\n\r\nTrading JPY pairs can be scary as well, but they tend to be driven by the USD/JPY so as long as you watch this pair you can be guided and it stands to reason that in Asian sessions the JPY pairs should have acceptable volumes. Only the CAD/JPY and CHF/JPY struggle a bit at times.\r\n\r\nTrading exotics (EUR/NZD, EUR/CAD, GBP/NZD, GBP/CAD, EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD) can be difficult at the best of times due to the volatility, which even in a good strong market is awkward. In thinner trading sessions you can lose a lot of money very quickly if you are not careful with these.\r\n\r\nEmerging market currencies in the Asian session, well I wouldn’t go there.\r\n\r\nBasically, as long as you make a note to self that the Asian markets are going to be slow with volatile moments as countries come on line and liquidity improves for a few minutes, you will be fine.\r\n\r\nI just think that as traders we have to be aware of everything possible that can scupper a great trade.\r\n\r\nThe solutions to the Asian markets: -\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li>Don’t trade them.</li>\r\n	<li>Smaller positions with wider stops.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n	<li><strong> WHAT’S ON MY MIND:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>IS NOW THE TIME TO SELL THE</strong>\r\n<strong>COMMODITY CURRENCIES?</strong></p>\r\nWhen the FOMC left interest rates unchanged on September 17th it was a game changer for commodities and commodity currencies. It took a couple of days for the dust to settle and a few more days for the commodity currencies to react but the chain of events, “the domino effect” took hold.\r\n\r\nA lot of what has happened since is confusing at times, is the dog wagging its tail, or, is it the tail that is wagging the dog?\r\n\r\nOil, is the classic example of this. Despite the “rig count” reducing and inventories moving around a little, we are still in a pump it, pump it, pump it environment, or as it was once said “drill baby drill”. I know oil is a highly speculative hedging commodity and as I call them “the high-rollers” love to speculate on oil. My God, there is a vast range of speculators trying to nail down a futures price and buy forward. The oil market is from my perspective a real game of “chance”.\r\n\r\nIn addition, the media and markets look to OPEC for guidance regarding oil output etc. However, there lies another problem as OPEC does NOT represent all the oil producers in the world and as the body to represent oil producers it\'s about as useful as a chocolate teapot. Russia, the UK, Norway, USA, Canada and Mexico are not in OPEC. Yet these are all significant oil producers and/or exporters.\r\n\r\nBasically for over a year now oil has had a supply and demand problem. There is too much oil in the market and not enough people wanting to buy it. Thus, the price moves lower, as producers seek buyers. Oil is priced in USD.\r\n\r\nHaving just written that, the desire for these speculators to find a bottom in the oil market is huge. Probably given the cash at stake, bigger than any other open market.\r\n\r\nAs soon as the FED announced a hold on an interest rate increase, it reminded me of the equivalent of a Saturn V rocket lift off, like we used to see out of Cape Kennedy<strong>.</strong> It was slow to lift off, but as the dust settled the speed intensified and the chain reaction took hold after a few days of waiting and wondering.\r\n\r\nA huge sigh of relief came through the markets after the dust settled, the “fat cats” could squeeze a bit more, and as a bonus the USD related commodities received a boost even though fundamentally nothing had changed.\r\n\r\nThe FOMC held rates, the USD weakened and everything related to the USD also weakened such as Oil, Gold and Copper.\r\n\r\nThe domino effect takes hold and the commodity currencies that were previously in the crapper also rally, even though nothing has fundamentally changed. The USD bolted and left the stable…\r\n\r\nWe still have the same problems, it’s as if a pressure cooker that has been building up pressure for a few hours is suddenly allowed to let off steam, that is what I think has happened. The USD was wound up so tight ahead of the September 17<sup>th</sup> meeting that many positions were taken off the table in the Forex market ahead of the meeting and as a result liquidity was much lower. It was noted that institutional traders squared off prior to vacations in August and decided to wait until after the FOMC before re-entering the market.\r\n\r\nBoom…. there you go. You could almost hear the sound after the FOMC statement was released, digested and pondered about for a couple of days. What now?\r\n\r\nThe commodity currencies strengthened like crazy over the past two weeks and now they look over-stretched, over-done and tired.\r\n\r\nThere are opportunities on the horizon.\r\n\r\nRemember nothing has fundamentally changed…\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>Oil is in over supply.</li>\r\n	<li>Gold is priced too high, there is zero inflation, so in my opinion no need to own a non-producing bit of yellow metal.</li>\r\n	<li>The RBNZ, ECB, BOJ remain accommodative.</li>\r\n	<li>The RBA is now neutral, but for how long, its not all about the Sydney housing market.</li>\r\n	<li>The BOE according to Carney will raise rates ahead of the U.S. if deemed ready.</li>\r\n	<li>The SNB are ready to intervene to weaken the CHF.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nWe have Forex opportunities, we are able to trade at levels that offer great risk / reward trades.\r\n\r\nI just want to pick out the USD majors to highlight. Look at the charts of the AUD/USD and NZD/USD over the last two weeks or so (below), and, look at the extremes we are reaching. I am ignoring the cross rates in this article, but the moves in GBP/USD and in particular GBP/NZD have been spectacular, the GBP/NZD, in particular has received a Tony Soprano whacking.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AUDUSDDailyBOOM-CHART11092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6596\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AUDUSDDailyBOOM-CHART11092015.png\" alt=\"AUDUSDDailyBOOM CHART11092015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/NZDUSDWeeklyBOOM-CHART-11102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6597\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/NZDUSDWeeklyBOOM-CHART-11102015.png\" alt=\"NZDUSDWeeklyBOOM CHART 11102015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMy subscribers through my fee based Premium Service option will benefit, hopefully, from my thoughts of what to get into and when to enter.\r\n\r\nI am not saying that there is a commodity currency sale on now right in front of us, but the AUD/USD and NZD/USD are in areas of great interest to short from and the USD/CAD in my opinion will soon be a great long trade again.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:\r\n</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n3.1: SUMMARY OF YEAR TO DATE PERFORMANCE - 2015:\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">PREMIUM SERVICE – COST INCOME ANALYSIS (USD):</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">PROFITS FROM TRADE SET-UPS – to October 4th 2015.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">MICRO LOT TRADER - 536 trades cost to trade = $53.60\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 536 trades = <strong>$864.60</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">MINI LOT TRADER - 536 trades cost to trade = $536.00\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 536 trades = <strong>$8,646.00</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">STANDARD LOT TRADER - 536 trades cost to trade = $5,360.00\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 536 trades = <strong>$86,460.00</strong></p>\r\n3.2: PREMIUM SERVICE – TRADE SUMMARIES MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/PREM-SERV-PROFITS1-11102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6583\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/PREM-SERV-PROFITS1-11102015.png\" alt=\"PREM SERV PROFITS1 11102015\" width=\"513\" height=\"414\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/PREM-SERV-PROFITS2-11102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6584\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/PREM-SERV-PROFITS2-11102015.png\" alt=\"PREM SERV PROFITS2 11102015\" width=\"524\" height=\"415\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNOTES:\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>If the above return from Forex Trading interests you go to my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> and check out the subscription options and special promotions under the tabs “PREMIUM SERVICE” and “PROMOTIONS”</li>\r\n	<li>The performance above is based off single-lot trade sizes.</li>\r\n	<li>THE PREMIUM SERVICE has subscribers with broker accounts of sizes ranging from $2,500 to over $100,000. A profitable trade is a profitable trade. It is all about trading according to the size of your broker account (EFFECTIVE POSITION SIZING) and applying RISK MANAGEMENT principles at all times.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) SUBSCRIBER CONTENT:\r\n</strong>(The following section is additional data, thoughts, and ideas exclusively for PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) subscribers)</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n4.1: THE PREMIUM SERVICE – TRADING REVIEW:\r\n\r\nWow, I found that a tough week.\r\n\r\nI am trying to keep trades alive (USD/CHF and EUR/CHF), as these are key components of my TRADING PLAN through to the middle of next year.\r\n\r\nStubbornly, I held onto the CHF/JPY and USD/CAD. I booked losses of 505 pips on those two trades alone last week. I let the CHF/JPY (-195 pips) go, even though I want some JPY exposure moving forward. The QE rumblings and pressure from the markets, that is now being placed on Abe and Kuroda is bringing in outside “fast buck” speculators to the JPY currency. The USD/CAD (-310 pips) was a poor trade. I under-estimated the effect of the relief that the speculative side of the marketplace would have when the FOMC held rates and I completely under-estimated the effect that this would have on oil. I was blinded by my desire to have an open USD/CAD trade in my plan; I let that one go too far.\r\n\r\nTherefore, grabbing 30–40 pips here and there from what is at the moment, in my eyes a 30-40-pip Forex marketplace resulted in the PREMIUM SERVICE trading account still showing a positive for the month so far by a mere 16 pips. At least it is still positive!! Disappointing given the hours involved, but nevertheless still positive.\r\n\r\nIt may not look like it at times, but I am trying to build slowly in what is basically a chop fest some good start off positions for some core trades. It is not easy as the chopping here and there on a daily basis is somewhat frustrating.\r\n\r\nMy goal is to shift all my trade set-ups that form part of my longer-term TRADING PLAN into FUNDAMENTAL trades. It’s easier to measure performance. So there may be trades in the same currency pair to trigger at the same time with different parameters appearing, be patient it will become clearer as we move forward.\r\n\r\nIt is like the “chicken and egg”. I want to have positions in play to extract the best pricing but I do not want to be too aggressive at all and I do not want to establish too many positions inside a chop fest of a market.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.2: MAJOR TRADING PAIRS WITH LONGER-TERM MATCHING TRENDS:\r\n\r\n(The following currency pairs have Short Term (DAILY), Medium Term (WEEKLY) and Long Term (MONTHLY) charts all trending in the same direction).\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/TRENDING-PAIRS-11102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6592\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/TRENDING-PAIRS-11102015.png\" alt=\"TRENDING PAIRS 11102015\" width=\"487\" height=\"615\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.3: THE PREMIUM SERVICE - LIVE TRADES ARE:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/LIVE-TRADES-11102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6591\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/LIVE-TRADES-11102015.png\" alt=\"LIVE TRADES 11102015\" width=\"702\" height=\"553\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.4: THE PREMIUM SERVICE – LIMIT ORDER TRADES ARE:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/LIMIT-ORDERS-111012015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6590\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/LIMIT-ORDERS-111012015.png\" alt=\"LIMIT ORDERS 111012015\" width=\"686\" height=\"435\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.5: POTENTIAL TRADES - WHAT PAIRS / CHARTS AM I LOOKING AT?\r\n\r\nBelow are a few pairs that have caught my eye.\r\n\r\nThere are no comments other than those contained on the charts if applicable.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPNZD-W-11102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6601\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPNZD-W-11102015-1024x514.png\" alt=\"GBPNZD W 11102015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"514\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPAUD-W-11102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6602\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPAUD-W-11102015-1024x514.png\" alt=\"GBPAUD W 11102015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"514\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURNZD-W-11102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6603\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURNZD-W-11102015-1024x514.png\" alt=\"EURNZD W 11102015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"514\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURCAD-240M-11102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6604\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURCAD-240M-11102015-1024x514.png\" alt=\"EURCAD 240M 11102015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"514\" /></a> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n	<li><strong> MY FINAL THOUGHTS:</strong><u> </u></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nOVERVIEW OF TRADING TIPS &amp; THOUGHTS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD:\r\n\r\nAnother week another chop fest!\r\n\r\nI see absolutely no reason at all why the market drivers should change this coming week.\r\n\r\nThe economic data dump has some interesting points with China and Australia to factor in but in real terms FED speculation and the price of oil will dominate once again in my opinion.\r\n\r\nIt is a chop fest, but there are some opportunities dotted about. In my opinion, the commodity currencies offer us these opportunities. If you have the stomach for it look at the commodity cross rates as well but be careful. They are so reactionary, being caught the wrong side in such a twitchy market can be a cruel experience.\r\n\r\nTrade smaller and wider to keep those hopes and dreams alive!\r\n\r\nWhilst we may not all have bodies as flexible as gymnasts our trading minds have to be just as flexible to achieve longevity.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nTake care.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nhttps://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/','IS NOW THE TIME TO SELL THE  COMMODITY CURRENCIES?','','publish','open','closed','','is-now-the-time-to-sell-the-commodity-currencies','','','2015-10-10 14:16:55','2015-10-10 19:16:55','',0,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?post_type=member_posts&#038;p=6605',0,'member_posts','',0),(6606,1,'2015-10-10 14:14:41','2015-10-10 19:14:41','<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>THE PREMIUM SERVICE</strong>\r\n<strong>from the</strong>\r\n<strong>WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU</strong>\r\n<strong>“The Home of Single Lot Trading”</strong></p>\r\n\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li><strong> THE VIEW FROM MY TRADE DESK:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nLOOKING BACKWARDS, FORWARDS &amp; SIDEWAYS (FOR GOOD MEASURE) AT THE FX MARKET:\r\n\r\n1.1: LOOKING BACKWARDS:\r\n\r\nLast week it was all about U.S. Non Farm Payrolls, this week the FOMC meeting minutes from the meeting on September 17<sup>th </sup>took its place.\r\n\r\nFrom my perspective, given that the NFP data came after the last FOMC meeting and following the meeting there was so much press coverage of why the FED kept rates on hold, I expected the minutes to be a damp squib. Basically, unless they were tampered with, nothing new would be seen. The minutes gave me nothing new and following the release of the minutes all the “FED speak” has been basically around who is up for a rate hike in 2015 and who is into 2016 and beyond.\r\n\r\nThe end result = limbo = uncertainty, which in turn equals twitchy bottoms behind the trade desks.\r\n\r\nFrom a Forex perspective, this uncertainty has produced a break in commodity pressure and the commodity currencies; AUD, NZD and CAD in particular have all strengthened as a result.\r\n\r\nHowever, do they not look a little over-stretched now?\r\n\r\nMy main article in section 2 of this blog makes a few observations on this point.\r\n\r\nWe also heard from the BOJ, who are keeping things on hold, but there is huge interest in selling JPY as the rumours about the BOJ adding further quantitative easing (QE) at the end of this month are gathering momentum.\r\n\r\nPersonally, I do not see that QE has ever worked. If it is meant to be just a currency manipulation tool, then it does work. However, the various central banks that have adopted QE believe it a policy weapon to boost and strengthen flagging economies amongst other things. It keeps stock market prices inflated by providing a backstop to institutions; if you know the FED will support the markets with cash you have nothing to lose. You may recall the cartoon of Ben Bernanke in a helicopter dropping wads of cash over Wall Street and Chicago, Bernanke then became known as “Helicopter Ben”.\r\n\r\nThe financial markets on Wall Street may have been supported by QE, but the consumer confidence of Main Street, well, it simply did NOT happen. Housing is still weaker than expected and the U.S. economy has NOT bounced. 7 years on and we are still waiting. I have serious doubts over the effectiveness of QE unless its single purpose (denied of course) is to bolster equities.\r\n\r\nThe poster boy of QE, the FED the biggest and best in the world should note that after 7 years of zero interest rates they are sh*t scared to raise interest rates from zero by 0.25%..... someone please give me a fecking break…. QE is not all it’s cracked up to be, and, simply put it just has NOT worked.\r\n\r\nI just don\'t get it. The sooner we have the media proclaimed “Rock God’s” who are the beloved central bank governors or presidents own up to the fact that we are in a currency war and admit that they haven’t got a clue on how to tackle DEFLATION the better. Maybe then, the markets will be able to move and react better, rather than give us this very false position of relationship pricing that we have at the moment.\r\n\r\nSo, will the BOJ add more QE at the end of the month?\r\n\r\nHere’s my suggestion, Mr. Kuroda and Mr. Abe, give your dosh to me as I can waste your money just as efficiently as you guys can!!\r\n\r\nI cannot pass up the opportunity to talk about the next presenter for a BBC TV programme called Jackanory (Google it).\r\n\r\nMark Carney, he’s off on one again. For the love of God, the UK is NOT going to raise rates ahead of the FED. In the name of sanity, who believes this guy? Every time he speaks at a major media event, he changes his tune and contradicts or denies what was previously said within a few days. I am not wasting more words on this man because it is just farcical.\r\n\r\nCarney (BOE) and Wheeler (RBNZ) would make a great comedy stage act in the West End Theatres (London). They could be memory men, each testing the other on what they just said. With a few drinks it could be entertaining, but I wouldn’t pay for it.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n1.2: LOOKING FORWARD:\r\n\r\nMAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:\r\n\r\n(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market other than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to <a href=\"http://www.forexfactory.com\">www.forexfactory.com</a> and <a href=\"http://www.tradingeconomics.com\">www.tradingeconomics.com</a> for a more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).\r\nSUNDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: AUD – NAB Business Confidence.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: CNY – Trade balance and CPi.\r\nTUESDAY: GBP – CPi.\r\nTUESDAY: EUR – German ZEW Economic Sentiment.\r\nWEDNESDAY: GBP – Employment Data.\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – Core Retail Sales and PPi.\r\nWEDNESDAY: AUD – Employment Data.\r\nTHURSDAY: USD – Core CPi.\r\nTHURSDAY: NZD – CPi.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: CAD – Manufacturing Sales.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMY THOUGHTS ON THE NEWS ITEMS THIS COMING WEEK:\r\n\r\nTo be frank, not a lot really warms my belly.\r\n\r\nI am not short the AUD at the moment as I think there is a bit higher we can see with the AUD/USD. It feels strange not being short all the commodity currencies so I will follow the AUD news closely. In addition, the Chinese data will be interesting to follow.\r\n\r\nI am bored writing about this next point, so you readers could be fed up reading it. The Core CPi and Retail Sales from the U.S. will be used to give hints on the FED rate hike. Maybe we are at the point of another weeks worth of crappy data from the U.S., which will kill off any thoughts of a rate hike in 2015. I can guarantee you that Janet Yellen will be beating herself up for not raising in September, or earlier in the year. Dithering never pays off in anything, it only frustrates and annoys all around you. The uncertainty will just go on and on hanging over the U.S. economy which by all accounts looks to be heading towards a recession if we carry on seeing poor data after poor data releases.\r\n\r\nTime will tell.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMY KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS THIS WEEK FOR USD MAJORS<strong>:</strong>\r\n\r\nIn this section I have as usual kept my charts as minimalist as possible. All readers regardless of level of experience should be able to follow my thoughts from my comments to the levels on the charts with ease.\r\n\r\nEUR/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.1361\r\n\r\nWe are range bound albeit in quite a big range as shown on the chart below; 1.1088 to 1.1459.\r\n\r\nThe daily chart looks bullish although we are now about 100 pips away from the highs seen straight after the FOMC “rates on hold” meeting last month. This could be a great area to short from if you have the patience to wait.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURUSDDaily11102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6594\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURUSDDaily11102015.png\" alt=\"EURUSDDaily11102015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.5315\r\n\r\nCable has been flip-flopping around as usual. We saw a couple of days last week when we were at the precipice only to see the bounce and then just as the market gets “bulled up”, bam…. the cable reverses.\r\n\r\nNothing new the GBP/USD is the master of false moves.\r\n\r\nWe look to be heading lower with the longer-term trend once again. From my perspective a break below through 1.5280 and definitely below 1.5200 should place the bears back in the driving seat once again.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPUSDDaily11102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6595\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPUSDDaily11102015.png\" alt=\"GBPUSDDaily11102015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.7336\r\n\r\nI read this pair wrong recently. I did not expect Glenn Stevens (RBA Governor) to go “girlie” and suggest that the RBA was now neutral. Add to this the commodity rush to buy this pair, which has resulted in elevating its value towards 0.7380, the 127.6% Fibonacci level. Looks like a great short to me at this level. Be patient and wait.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AUDUSDDailyBOOM-CHART11092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6596\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AUDUSDDailyBOOM-CHART11092015.png\" alt=\"AUDUSDDailyBOOM CHART11092015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.6694\r\n\r\nI remember when I used to repeatedly call out to my parents from the back of the car when we were going somewhere exciting…. “Are we there yet?”\r\n\r\nWe could be, this is the area maybe to test a short. Remember the RBNZ is hawkish. At least that was the impression I got last time from “Wheeler the dealer” and his side kick English at the RBNZ.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/NZDUSDWeeklyBOOM-CHART-11102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6597\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/NZDUSDWeeklyBOOM-CHART-11102015.png\" alt=\"NZDUSDWeeklyBOOM CHART 11102015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.2945\r\n\r\nI took a massive hit with this pair last week. We move on…. upwards to infinity and beyond. Well not quite… all I wanted last week was 1.3350.\r\n\r\nI see a BOC rate cut on the horizon after the election. The jobs data was surprisingly good last week. But alas…a huge word of warning, the job numbers came from the country that provided inaccurate jobs data for the best part of 2014. So it’s not just the Chinese data that you should question.\r\n\r\nI live in Quebec, the poor part of Canada, it is geographically huge (like most parts of Canada) and it has a huge population percentage of the Canadian total. It is dogged with huge problems all self-inflicted with complete and utter bloody mindedness and stubbornness at the heart/root of the issues that have plagued the province for decades. Quebec is failing, it lacks investment; jobs are disappearing because of its deep-rooted issues. Companies just give up and move out. The tension over language dominates everything and no one gives a rat’s hairy ar** that Quebec is imploding. It is language that is perceived to be important. Not jobs, health, education and infrastructure…. just language. The downward spiral in Quebec has been gathering a pace for years; it personifies uncertainty in every aspect and definition of the word.\r\n\r\nOn top of the Quebec issues, we have crashing oil prices and the job cut backs in Alberta and the service industries that support the Canadian oil industry from Ontario and British Columbia. In addition, the exchange rate difficulties that lower oil prices have on the USD/CAD relationship with Canada’s neighbour the USA, flags… Houston we have a problem.\r\n\r\nConsumer confidence numbers in Quebec have never been good but add in a few more provinces with issues and it’s not a pretty picture. Canada could mask the stupidity of Quebec, but not when more pieces of the jigsaw come apart.\r\n\r\nIf the oil price falls below $40.00 as I think it will, and we have a rate cut, which I think is a case of when and NOT if, we could have the USD/CAD at 1.5000-1.6000.\r\n\r\nWe are still in a bullish trend despite the recent sell-off. There are buying opportunities in my opinion.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCADWeekly11102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6598\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCADWeekly11102015.png\" alt=\"USDCADWeekly11102015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF - Weekly Closing Price: 0.9613\r\n\r\nI am STILL long this pair.\r\n\r\nI do expect it to breakout higher. I see 0.9550 as a big test should we drop to this level. I am prepared for it but do not like it. It is like an impending visit to the dentist hanging over me.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCHFDaily11102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6599\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCHFDaily11102015.png\" alt=\"USDCHFDaily11102015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY - Weekly Closing Price: 120.20\r\n\r\nThis pair is being speculated upon at the moment. Large-scale investors looking for a quick few dollars are banking on the BOJ adding more quantitative easing (QE) at the end of this month. I have already made my views known on the effectiveness of QE. That does not mean that I am correct. It is just my opinion. This pair could be one of those Forex great trades of “Buy the rumour sell the news”. 122.00 will be a key obstacle level of resistance to break, if the buying frenzy intensifies as we approach the end of the month.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDJPYDaily11102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6600\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDJPYDaily11102015.png\" alt=\"USDJPYDaily11102015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n1.3: LOOKING SIDEWAYS (FOR GOOD MEASURE):\r\n\r\nThis week I want to focus a little on liquidity and how the volumes in the Forex market are changing and how this affects us as traders.\r\n\r\nThe reason that I want to talk about this is that I noticed a huge change after the summer this year. In writing about this, I realize that the FOMC meeting that took place on September 17<sup>th</sup> may have been a deciding factor in low liquidity lasting longer than usual, with institutional and senior bank market makers staying out and away from trading activity for longer.\r\n\r\nVolumes are down and liquidity is thinner. This means we have to be a bit more savvy. What do I mean?\r\n\r\nThis is not just about the hours to trade there is a knock-on effect for currency pairs to trade as well in my opinion.\r\n\r\nThe Forex trading hours are 24 hours a day 5 days a week. Within these hours there are peak trading times with good volumes of cash flowing in and out of the market and then there are thin trading times when liquidity and cash in and out is poor by comparison to the better volume hours.\r\n\r\nBasically I see it as follows: -\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/FX-TRADING-TIMES-11102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6593\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/FX-TRADING-TIMES-11102015.png\" alt=\"FX TRADING TIMES 11102015\" width=\"820\" height=\"351\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe major financial centre times for trading are marked in RED by the hours that they are open.\r\n\r\nBeneath this, I have what I call the previous best times to trade shown in BLUE.\r\n\r\nAt the foot of the table is what I am calling the best times to trade Forex shown in GREEN.\r\n\r\nMy revisions are based on times when there are what I call good two-way flows.\r\n\r\nJust like trading the EUR/USD you know that it always has great liquidity and two-way action. The markets are the same.\r\n\r\nThe Forex market has changed and liquidity flowing through into the markets is stronger when markets open up to start trading and again when two markets are open together.\r\n\r\nOverall, Forex market trading volumes are lower, less cash is being placed into Forex therefore it stands to reason that all the markets will suffer. The worst markets for liquidity are those open in Asian trading, these are now more likely to have wilder swing moves and we have seen some rather strange breakout moves only to be swatted back into line when London opens and liquidity improves.\r\n\r\nBoth London and New York are victims of lower liquidity, they are not exempt, but the fact is they are the powerhouses of the Forex Market and whilst lower volumes may be placed through these markets, volumes are still acceptable as they were in 2014, as far as I am concerned.\r\n\r\nWithout doubt, the European / North American session when running together offers the best trading conditions.\r\n\r\nWith regards to currencies, the exotic currencies, which see lower volumes in any case, will be more of a minefield if the overall market is starved of liquidity.\r\n\r\nTherefore looking specifically at the Asian session, which in my opinion is the most troublesome. Trading the USD majors will always offer better liquidity along with the EUR/JPY, EUR/GBP.\r\n\r\nTrading JPY pairs can be scary as well, but they tend to be driven by the USD/JPY so as long as you watch this pair you can be guided and it stands to reason that in Asian sessions the JPY pairs should have acceptable volumes. Only the CAD/JPY and CHF/JPY struggle a bit at times.\r\n\r\nTrading exotics (EUR/NZD, EUR/CAD, GBP/NZD, GBP/CAD, EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD) can be difficult at the best of times due to the volatility, which even in a good strong market is awkward. In thinner trading sessions you can lose a lot of money very quickly if you are not careful with these.\r\n\r\nEmerging market currencies in the Asian session, well I wouldn’t go there.\r\n\r\nBasically, as long as you make a note to self that the Asian markets are going to be slow with volatile moments as countries come on line and liquidity improves for a few minutes, you will be fine.\r\n\r\nI just think that as traders we have to be aware of everything possible that can scupper a great trade.\r\n\r\nThe solutions to the Asian markets: -\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li>Don’t trade them.</li>\r\n	<li>Smaller positions with wider stops.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n	<li><strong> WHAT’S ON MY MIND:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>IS NOW THE TIME TO SELL THE</strong>\r\n<strong>COMMODITY CURRENCIES?</strong></p>\r\nWhen the FOMC left interest rates unchanged on September 17th it was a game changer for commodities and commodity currencies. It took a couple of days for the dust to settle and a few more days for the commodity currencies to react but the chain of events, “the domino effect” took hold.\r\n\r\nA lot of what has happened since is confusing at times, is the dog wagging its tail, or, is it the tail that is wagging the dog?\r\n\r\nOil, is the classic example of this. Despite the “rig count” reducing and inventories moving around a little, we are still in a pump it, pump it, pump it environment, or as it was once said “drill baby drill”. I know oil is a highly speculative hedging commodity and as I call them “the high-rollers” love to speculate on oil. My God, there is a vast range of speculators trying to nail down a futures price and buy forward. The oil market is from my perspective a real game of “chance”.\r\n\r\nIn addition, the media and markets look to OPEC for guidance regarding oil output etc. However, there lies another problem as OPEC does NOT represent all the oil producers in the world and as the body to represent oil producers it\'s about as useful as a chocolate teapot. Russia, the UK, Norway, USA, Canada and Mexico are not in OPEC. Yet these are all significant oil producers and/or exporters.\r\n\r\nBasically for over a year now oil has had a supply and demand problem. There is too much oil in the market and not enough people wanting to buy it. Thus, the price moves lower, as producers seek buyers. Oil is priced in USD.\r\n\r\nHaving just written that, the desire for these speculators to find a bottom in the oil market is huge. Probably given the cash at stake, bigger than any other open market.\r\n\r\nAs soon as the FED announced a hold on an interest rate increase, it reminded me of the equivalent of a Saturn V rocket lift off, like we used to see out of Cape Kennedy<strong>.</strong> It was slow to lift off, but as the dust settled the speed intensified and the chain reaction took hold after a few days of waiting and wondering.\r\n\r\nA huge sigh of relief came through the markets after the dust settled, the “fat cats” could squeeze a bit more, and as a bonus the USD related commodities received a boost even though fundamentally nothing had changed.\r\n\r\nThe FOMC held rates, the USD weakened and everything related to the USD also weakened such as Oil, Gold and Copper.\r\n\r\nThe domino effect takes hold and the commodity currencies that were previously in the crapper also rally, even though nothing has fundamentally changed. The USD bolted and left the stable…\r\n\r\nWe still have the same problems, it’s as if a pressure cooker that has been building up pressure for a few hours is suddenly allowed to let off steam, that is what I think has happened. The USD was wound up so tight ahead of the September 17<sup>th</sup> meeting that many positions were taken off the table in the Forex market ahead of the meeting and as a result liquidity was much lower. It was noted that institutional traders squared off prior to vacations in August and decided to wait until after the FOMC before re-entering the market.\r\n\r\nBoom…. there you go. You could almost hear the sound after the FOMC statement was released, digested and pondered about for a couple of days. What now?\r\n\r\nThe commodity currencies strengthened like crazy over the past two weeks and now they look over-stretched, over-done and tired.\r\n\r\nThere are opportunities on the horizon.\r\n\r\nRemember nothing has fundamentally changed…\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>Oil is in over supply.</li>\r\n	<li>Gold is priced too high, there is zero inflation, so in my opinion no need to own a non-producing bit of yellow metal.</li>\r\n	<li>The RBNZ, ECB, BOJ remain accommodative.</li>\r\n	<li>The RBA is now neutral, but for how long, its not all about the Sydney housing market.</li>\r\n	<li>The BOE according to Carney will raise rates ahead of the U.S. if deemed ready.</li>\r\n	<li>The SNB are ready to intervene to weaken the CHF.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nWe have Forex opportunities, we are able to trade at levels that offer great risk / reward trades.\r\n\r\nI just want to pick out the USD majors to highlight. Look at the charts of the AUD/USD and NZD/USD over the last two weeks or so (below), and, look at the extremes we are reaching. I am ignoring the cross rates in this article, but the moves in GBP/USD and in particular GBP/NZD have been spectacular, the GBP/NZD, in particular has received a Tony Soprano whacking.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AUDUSDDailyBOOM-CHART11092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6596\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AUDUSDDailyBOOM-CHART11092015.png\" alt=\"AUDUSDDailyBOOM CHART11092015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/NZDUSDWeeklyBOOM-CHART-11102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6597\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/NZDUSDWeeklyBOOM-CHART-11102015.png\" alt=\"NZDUSDWeeklyBOOM CHART 11102015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMy subscribers through my fee based Premium Service option will benefit, hopefully, from my thoughts of what to get into and when to enter.\r\n\r\nI am not saying that there is a commodity currency sale on now right in front of us, but the AUD/USD and NZD/USD are in areas of great interest to short from and the USD/CAD in my opinion will soon be a great long trade again.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:\r\n</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n3.1: SUMMARY OF YEAR TO DATE PERFORMANCE - 2015:\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">PREMIUM SERVICE – COST INCOME ANALYSIS (USD):</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">PROFITS FROM TRADE SET-UPS – to October 4th 2015.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">MICRO LOT TRADER - 536 trades cost to trade = $53.60\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 536 trades = <strong>$864.60</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">MINI LOT TRADER - 536 trades cost to trade = $536.00\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 536 trades = <strong>$8,646.00</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">STANDARD LOT TRADER - 536 trades cost to trade = $5,360.00\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 536 trades = <strong>$86,460.00</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"></p>\r\n3.2: PREMIUM SERVICE – TRADE SUMMARIES MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/PREM-SERV-PROFITS1-11102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6583\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/PREM-SERV-PROFITS1-11102015.png\" alt=\"PREM SERV PROFITS1 11102015\" width=\"513\" height=\"414\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/PREM-SERV-PROFITS2-11102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6584\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/PREM-SERV-PROFITS2-11102015.png\" alt=\"PREM SERV PROFITS2 11102015\" width=\"524\" height=\"415\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNOTES:\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>If the above return from Forex Trading interests you go to my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> and check out the subscription options and special promotions under the tabs “PREMIUM SERVICE” and “PROMOTIONS”</li>\r\n	<li>The performance above is based off single-lot trade sizes.</li>\r\n	<li>THE PREMIUM SERVICE has subscribers with broker accounts of sizes ranging from $2,500 to over $100,000. A profitable trade is a profitable trade. It is all about trading according to the size of your broker account (EFFECTIVE POSITION SIZING) and applying RISK MANAGEMENT principles at all times.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) SUBSCRIBER CONTENT:\r\n</strong>(The following section is additional data, thoughts, and ideas exclusively for PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) subscribers)</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n4.1: THE PREMIUM SERVICE – TRADING REVIEW:\r\n\r\nWow, I found that a tough week.\r\n\r\nI am trying to keep trades alive (USD/CHF and EUR/CHF), as these are key components of my TRADING PLAN through to the middle of next year.\r\n\r\nStubbornly, I held onto the CHF/JPY and USD/CAD. I booked losses of 505 pips on those two trades alone last week. I let the CHF/JPY (-195 pips) go, even though I want some JPY exposure moving forward. The QE rumblings and pressure from the markets, that is now being placed on Abe and Kuroda is bringing in outside “fast buck” speculators to the JPY currency. The USD/CAD (-310 pips) was a poor trade. I under-estimated the effect of the relief that the speculative side of the marketplace would have when the FOMC held rates and I completely under-estimated the effect that this would have on oil. I was blinded by my desire to have an open USD/CAD trade in my plan; I let that one go too far.\r\n\r\nTherefore, grabbing 30–40 pips here and there from what is at the moment, in my eyes a 30-40-pip Forex marketplace resulted in the PREMIUM SERVICE trading account still showing a positive for the month so far by a mere 16 pips. At least it is still positive!! Disappointing given the hours involved, but nevertheless still positive.\r\n\r\nIt may not look like it at times, but I am trying to build slowly in what is basically a chop fest some good start off positions for some core trades. It is not easy as the chopping here and there on a daily basis is somewhat frustrating.\r\n\r\nMy goal is to shift all my trade set-ups that form part of my longer-term TRADING PLAN into FUNDAMENTAL trades. It’s easier to measure performance. So there may be trades in the same currency pair to trigger at the same time with different parameters appearing, be patient it will become clearer as we move forward.\r\n\r\nIt is like the “chicken and egg”. I want to have positions in play to extract the best pricing but I do not want to be too aggressive at all and I do not want to establish too many positions inside a chop fest of a market.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.2: MAJOR TRADING PAIRS WITH LONGER-TERM MATCHING TRENDS:\r\n\r\n(The following currency pairs have Short Term (DAILY), Medium Term (WEEKLY) and Long Term (MONTHLY) charts all trending in the same direction).\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/TRENDING-PAIRS-11102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6592\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/TRENDING-PAIRS-11102015.png\" alt=\"TRENDING PAIRS 11102015\" width=\"487\" height=\"615\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.3: THE PREMIUM SERVICE - LIVE TRADES ARE:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/LIVE-TRADES-11102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6591\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/LIVE-TRADES-11102015.png\" alt=\"LIVE TRADES 11102015\" width=\"702\" height=\"553\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.4: THE PREMIUM SERVICE – LIMIT ORDER TRADES ARE:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/LIMIT-ORDERS-111012015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6590\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/LIMIT-ORDERS-111012015.png\" alt=\"LIMIT ORDERS 111012015\" width=\"686\" height=\"435\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.5: POTENTIAL TRADES - WHAT PAIRS / CHARTS AM I LOOKING AT?\r\n\r\nBelow are a few pairs that have caught my eye.\r\n\r\nThere are no comments other than those contained on the charts if applicable.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPNZD-W-11102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6601\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPNZD-W-11102015-1024x514.png\" alt=\"GBPNZD W 11102015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"514\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPAUD-W-11102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6602\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPAUD-W-11102015-1024x514.png\" alt=\"GBPAUD W 11102015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"514\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURNZD-W-11102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6603\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURNZD-W-11102015-1024x514.png\" alt=\"EURNZD W 11102015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"514\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURCAD-240M-11102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6604\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURCAD-240M-11102015-1024x514.png\" alt=\"EURCAD 240M 11102015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"514\" /></a> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n	<li><strong> MY FINAL THOUGHTS:</strong><u> </u></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nOVERVIEW OF TRADING TIPS &amp; THOUGHTS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD:\r\n\r\nAnother week another chop fest!\r\n\r\nI see absolutely no reason at all why the market drivers should change this coming week.\r\n\r\nThe economic data dump has some interesting points with China and Australia to factor in but in real terms FED speculation and the price of oil will dominate once again in my opinion.\r\n\r\nIt is a chop fest, but there are some opportunities dotted about. In my opinion, the commodity currencies offer us these opportunities. If you have the stomach for it look at the commodity cross rates as well but be careful. They are so reactionary, being caught the wrong side in such a twitchy market can be a cruel experience.\r\n\r\nTrade smaller and wider to keep those hopes and dreams alive!\r\n\r\nWhilst we may not all have bodies as flexible as gymnasts our trading minds have to be just as flexible to achieve longevity.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nTake care.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nhttps://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/','IS NOW THE TIME TO SELL THE  COMMODITY CURRENCIES?','','inherit','closed','closed','','6605-revision-v1','','','2015-10-10 14:14:41','2015-10-10 19:14:41','',6605,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/6605-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(6607,1,'2015-10-10 14:16:55','2015-10-10 19:16:55','<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>THE PREMIUM SERVICE</strong>\r\n<strong>from the</strong>\r\n<strong>WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU</strong>\r\n<strong>“The Home of Single Lot Trading”</strong></p>\r\n\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li><strong> THE VIEW FROM MY TRADE DESK:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nLOOKING BACKWARDS, FORWARDS &amp; SIDEWAYS (FOR GOOD MEASURE) AT THE FX MARKET:\r\n\r\n1.1: LOOKING BACKWARDS:\r\n\r\nLast week it was all about U.S. Non Farm Payrolls, this week the FOMC meeting minutes from the meeting on September 17<sup>th </sup>took its place.\r\n\r\nFrom my perspective, given that the NFP data came after the last FOMC meeting and following the meeting there was so much press coverage of why the FED kept rates on hold, I expected the minutes to be a damp squib. Basically, unless they were tampered with, nothing new would be seen. The minutes gave me nothing new and following the release of the minutes all the “FED speak” has been basically around who is up for a rate hike in 2015 and who is into 2016 and beyond.\r\n\r\nThe end result = limbo = uncertainty, which in turn equals twitchy bottoms behind the trade desks.\r\n\r\nFrom a Forex perspective, this uncertainty has produced a break in commodity pressure and the commodity currencies; AUD, NZD and CAD in particular have all strengthened as a result.\r\n\r\nHowever, do they not look a little over-stretched now?\r\n\r\nMy main article in section 2 of this blog makes a few observations on this point.\r\n\r\nWe also heard from the BOJ, who are keeping things on hold, but there is huge interest in selling JPY as the rumours about the BOJ adding further quantitative easing (QE) at the end of this month are gathering momentum.\r\n\r\nPersonally, I do not see that QE has ever worked. If it is meant to be just a currency manipulation tool, then it does work. However, the various central banks that have adopted QE believe it a policy weapon to boost and strengthen flagging economies amongst other things. It keeps stock market prices inflated by providing a backstop to institutions; if you know the FED will support the markets with cash you have nothing to lose. You may recall the cartoon of Ben Bernanke in a helicopter dropping wads of cash over Wall Street and Chicago, Bernanke then became known as “Helicopter Ben”.\r\n\r\nThe financial markets on Wall Street may have been supported by QE, but the consumer confidence of Main Street, well, it simply did NOT happen. Housing is still weaker than expected and the U.S. economy has NOT bounced. 7 years on and we are still waiting. I have serious doubts over the effectiveness of QE unless its single purpose (denied of course) is to bolster equities.\r\n\r\nThe poster boy of QE, the FED the biggest and best in the world should note that after 7 years of zero interest rates they are sh*t scared to raise interest rates from zero by 0.25%..... someone please give me a fecking break…. QE is not all it’s cracked up to be, and, simply put it just has NOT worked.\r\n\r\nI just don\'t get it. The sooner we have the media proclaimed “Rock God’s” who are the beloved central bank governors or presidents own up to the fact that we are in a currency war and admit that they haven’t got a clue on how to tackle DEFLATION the better. Maybe then, the markets will be able to move and react better, rather than give us this very false position of relationship pricing that we have at the moment.\r\n\r\nSo, will the BOJ add more QE at the end of the month?\r\n\r\nHere’s my suggestion, Mr. Kuroda and Mr. Abe, give your dosh to me as I can waste your money just as efficiently as you guys can!!\r\n\r\nI cannot pass up the opportunity to talk about the next presenter for a BBC TV programme called Jackanory (Google it).\r\n\r\nMark Carney, he’s off on one again. For the love of God, the UK is NOT going to raise rates ahead of the FED. In the name of sanity, who believes this guy? Every time he speaks at a major media event, he changes his tune and contradicts or denies what was previously said within a few days. I am not wasting more words on this man because it is just farcical.\r\n\r\nCarney (BOE) and Wheeler (RBNZ) would make a great comedy stage act in the West End Theatres (London). They could be memory men, each testing the other on what they just said. With a few drinks it could be entertaining, but I wouldn’t pay for it.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n1.2: LOOKING FORWARD:\r\n\r\nMAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:\r\n\r\n(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market other than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to <a href=\"http://www.forexfactory.com\">www.forexfactory.com</a> and <a href=\"http://www.tradingeconomics.com\">www.tradingeconomics.com</a> for a more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).\r\n\r\nSUNDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: AUD – NAB Business Confidence.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: CNY – Trade balance and CPi.\r\nTUESDAY: GBP – CPi.\r\nTUESDAY: EUR – German ZEW Economic Sentiment.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: GBP – Employment Data.\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – Core Retail Sales and PPi.\r\nWEDNESDAY: AUD – Employment Data.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: USD – Core CPi.\r\nTHURSDAY: NZD – CPi.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: CAD – Manufacturing Sales.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMY THOUGHTS ON THE NEWS ITEMS THIS COMING WEEK:\r\n\r\nTo be frank, not a lot really warms my belly.\r\n\r\nI am not short the AUD at the moment as I think there is a bit higher we can see with the AUD/USD. It feels strange not being short all the commodity currencies so I will follow the AUD news closely. In addition, the Chinese data will be interesting to follow.\r\n\r\nI am bored writing about this next point, so you readers could be fed up reading it. The Core CPi and Retail Sales from the U.S. will be used to give hints on the FED rate hike. Maybe we are at the point of another weeks worth of crappy data from the U.S., which will kill off any thoughts of a rate hike in 2015. I can guarantee you that Janet Yellen will be beating herself up for not raising in September, or earlier in the year. Dithering never pays off in anything, it only frustrates and annoys all around you. The uncertainty will just go on and on hanging over the U.S. economy which by all accounts looks to be heading towards a recession if we carry on seeing poor data after poor data releases.\r\n\r\nTime will tell.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMY KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS THIS WEEK FOR USD MAJORS<strong>:</strong>\r\n\r\nIn this section I have as usual kept my charts as minimalist as possible. All readers regardless of level of experience should be able to follow my thoughts from my comments to the levels on the charts with ease.\r\n\r\nEUR/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.1361\r\n\r\nWe are range bound albeit in quite a big range as shown on the chart below; 1.1088 to 1.1459.\r\n\r\nThe daily chart looks bullish although we are now about 100 pips away from the highs seen straight after the FOMC “rates on hold” meeting last month. This could be a great area to short from if you have the patience to wait.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURUSDDaily11102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6594\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURUSDDaily11102015.png\" alt=\"EURUSDDaily11102015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.5315\r\n\r\nCable has been flip-flopping around as usual. We saw a couple of days last week when we were at the precipice only to see the bounce and then just as the market gets “bulled up”, bam…. the cable reverses.\r\n\r\nNothing new the GBP/USD is the master of false moves.\r\n\r\nWe look to be heading lower with the longer-term trend once again. From my perspective a break below through 1.5280 and definitely below 1.5200 should place the bears back in the driving seat once again.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPUSDDaily11102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6595\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPUSDDaily11102015.png\" alt=\"GBPUSDDaily11102015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.7336\r\n\r\nI read this pair wrong recently. I did not expect Glenn Stevens (RBA Governor) to go “girlie” and suggest that the RBA was now neutral. Add to this the commodity rush to buy this pair, which has resulted in elevating its value towards 0.7380, the 127.6% Fibonacci level. Looks like a great short to me at this level. Be patient and wait.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AUDUSDDailyBOOM-CHART11092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6596\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AUDUSDDailyBOOM-CHART11092015.png\" alt=\"AUDUSDDailyBOOM CHART11092015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.6694\r\n\r\nI remember when I used to repeatedly call out to my parents from the back of the car when we were going somewhere exciting…. “Are we there yet?”\r\n\r\nWe could be, this is the area maybe to test a short. Remember the RBNZ is hawkish. At least that was the impression I got last time from “Wheeler the dealer” and his side kick English at the RBNZ.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/NZDUSDWeeklyBOOM-CHART-11102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6597\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/NZDUSDWeeklyBOOM-CHART-11102015.png\" alt=\"NZDUSDWeeklyBOOM CHART 11102015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.2945\r\n\r\nI took a massive hit with this pair last week. We move on…. upwards to infinity and beyond. Well not quite… all I wanted last week was 1.3350.\r\n\r\nI see a BOC rate cut on the horizon after the election. The jobs data was surprisingly good last week. But alas…a huge word of warning, the job numbers came from the country that provided inaccurate jobs data for the best part of 2014. So it’s not just the Chinese data that you should question.\r\n\r\nI live in Quebec, the poor part of Canada, it is geographically huge (like most parts of Canada) and it has a huge population percentage of the Canadian total. It is dogged with huge problems all self-inflicted with complete and utter bloody mindedness and stubbornness at the heart/root of the issues that have plagued the province for decades. Quebec is failing, it lacks investment; jobs are disappearing because of its deep-rooted issues. Companies just give up and move out. The tension over language dominates everything and no one gives a rat’s hairy ar** that Quebec is imploding. It is language that is perceived to be important. Not jobs, health, education and infrastructure…. just language. The downward spiral in Quebec has been gathering a pace for years; it personifies uncertainty in every aspect and definition of the word.\r\n\r\nOn top of the Quebec issues, we have crashing oil prices and the job cut backs in Alberta and the service industries that support the Canadian oil industry from Ontario and British Columbia. In addition, the exchange rate difficulties that lower oil prices have on the USD/CAD relationship with Canada’s neighbour the USA, flags… Houston we have a problem.\r\n\r\nConsumer confidence numbers in Quebec have never been good but add in a few more provinces with issues and it’s not a pretty picture. Canada could mask the stupidity of Quebec, but not when more pieces of the jigsaw come apart.\r\n\r\nIf the oil price falls below $40.00 as I think it will, and we have a rate cut, which I think is a case of when and NOT if, we could have the USD/CAD at 1.5000-1.6000.\r\n\r\nWe are still in a bullish trend despite the recent sell-off. There are buying opportunities in my opinion.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCADWeekly11102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6598\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCADWeekly11102015.png\" alt=\"USDCADWeekly11102015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF - Weekly Closing Price: 0.9613\r\n\r\nI am STILL long this pair.\r\n\r\nI do expect it to breakout higher. I see 0.9550 as a big test should we drop to this level. I am prepared for it but do not like it. It is like an impending visit to the dentist hanging over me.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCHFDaily11102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6599\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCHFDaily11102015.png\" alt=\"USDCHFDaily11102015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY - Weekly Closing Price: 120.20\r\n\r\nThis pair is being speculated upon at the moment. Large-scale investors looking for a quick few dollars are banking on the BOJ adding more quantitative easing (QE) at the end of this month. I have already made my views known on the effectiveness of QE. That does not mean that I am correct. It is just my opinion. This pair could be one of those Forex great trades of “Buy the rumour sell the news”. 122.00 will be a key obstacle level of resistance to break, if the buying frenzy intensifies as we approach the end of the month.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDJPYDaily11102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6600\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDJPYDaily11102015.png\" alt=\"USDJPYDaily11102015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n1.3: LOOKING SIDEWAYS (FOR GOOD MEASURE):\r\n\r\nThis week I want to focus a little on liquidity and how the volumes in the Forex market are changing and how this affects us as traders.\r\n\r\nThe reason that I want to talk about this is that I noticed a huge change after the summer this year. In writing about this, I realize that the FOMC meeting that took place on September 17<sup>th</sup> may have been a deciding factor in low liquidity lasting longer than usual, with institutional and senior bank market makers staying out and away from trading activity for longer.\r\n\r\nVolumes are down and liquidity is thinner. This means we have to be a bit more savvy. What do I mean?\r\n\r\nThis is not just about the hours to trade there is a knock-on effect for currency pairs to trade as well in my opinion.\r\n\r\nThe Forex trading hours are 24 hours a day 5 days a week. Within these hours there are peak trading times with good volumes of cash flowing in and out of the market and then there are thin trading times when liquidity and cash in and out is poor by comparison to the better volume hours.\r\n\r\nBasically I see it as follows: -\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/FX-TRADING-TIMES-11102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6593\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/FX-TRADING-TIMES-11102015.png\" alt=\"FX TRADING TIMES 11102015\" width=\"820\" height=\"351\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe major financial centre times for trading are marked in RED by the hours that they are open.\r\n\r\nBeneath this, I have what I call the previous best times to trade shown in BLUE.\r\n\r\nAt the foot of the table is what I am calling the best times to trade Forex shown in GREEN.\r\n\r\nMy revisions are based on times when there are what I call good two-way flows.\r\n\r\nJust like trading the EUR/USD you know that it always has great liquidity and two-way action. The markets are the same.\r\n\r\nThe Forex market has changed and liquidity flowing through into the markets is stronger when markets open up to start trading and again when two markets are open together.\r\n\r\nOverall, Forex market trading volumes are lower, less cash is being placed into Forex therefore it stands to reason that all the markets will suffer. The worst markets for liquidity are those open in Asian trading, these are now more likely to have wilder swing moves and we have seen some rather strange breakout moves only to be swatted back into line when London opens and liquidity improves.\r\n\r\nBoth London and New York are victims of lower liquidity, they are not exempt, but the fact is they are the powerhouses of the Forex Market and whilst lower volumes may be placed through these markets, volumes are still acceptable as they were in 2014, as far as I am concerned.\r\n\r\nWithout doubt, the European / North American session when running together offers the best trading conditions.\r\n\r\nWith regards to currencies, the exotic currencies, which see lower volumes in any case, will be more of a minefield if the overall market is starved of liquidity.\r\n\r\nTherefore looking specifically at the Asian session, which in my opinion is the most troublesome. Trading the USD majors will always offer better liquidity along with the EUR/JPY, EUR/GBP.\r\n\r\nTrading JPY pairs can be scary as well, but they tend to be driven by the USD/JPY so as long as you watch this pair you can be guided and it stands to reason that in Asian sessions the JPY pairs should have acceptable volumes. Only the CAD/JPY and CHF/JPY struggle a bit at times.\r\n\r\nTrading exotics (EUR/NZD, EUR/CAD, GBP/NZD, GBP/CAD, EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD) can be difficult at the best of times due to the volatility, which even in a good strong market is awkward. In thinner trading sessions you can lose a lot of money very quickly if you are not careful with these.\r\n\r\nEmerging market currencies in the Asian session, well I wouldn’t go there.\r\n\r\nBasically, as long as you make a note to self that the Asian markets are going to be slow with volatile moments as countries come on line and liquidity improves for a few minutes, you will be fine.\r\n\r\nI just think that as traders we have to be aware of everything possible that can scupper a great trade.\r\n\r\nThe solutions to the Asian markets: -\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li>Don’t trade them.</li>\r\n	<li>Smaller positions with wider stops.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n	<li><strong> WHAT’S ON MY MIND:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>IS NOW THE TIME TO SELL THE</strong>\r\n<strong>COMMODITY CURRENCIES?</strong></p>\r\nWhen the FOMC left interest rates unchanged on September 17th it was a game changer for commodities and commodity currencies. It took a couple of days for the dust to settle and a few more days for the commodity currencies to react but the chain of events, “the domino effect” took hold.\r\n\r\nA lot of what has happened since is confusing at times, is the dog wagging its tail, or, is it the tail that is wagging the dog?\r\n\r\nOil, is the classic example of this. Despite the “rig count” reducing and inventories moving around a little, we are still in a pump it, pump it, pump it environment, or as it was once said “drill baby drill”. I know oil is a highly speculative hedging commodity and as I call them “the high-rollers” love to speculate on oil. My God, there is a vast range of speculators trying to nail down a futures price and buy forward. The oil market is from my perspective a real game of “chance”.\r\n\r\nIn addition, the media and markets look to OPEC for guidance regarding oil output etc. However, there lies another problem as OPEC does NOT represent all the oil producers in the world and as the body to represent oil producers it\'s about as useful as a chocolate teapot. Russia, the UK, Norway, USA, Canada and Mexico are not in OPEC. Yet these are all significant oil producers and/or exporters.\r\n\r\nBasically for over a year now oil has had a supply and demand problem. There is too much oil in the market and not enough people wanting to buy it. Thus, the price moves lower, as producers seek buyers. Oil is priced in USD.\r\n\r\nHaving just written that, the desire for these speculators to find a bottom in the oil market is huge. Probably given the cash at stake, bigger than any other open market.\r\n\r\nAs soon as the FED announced a hold on an interest rate increase, it reminded me of the equivalent of a Saturn V rocket lift off, like we used to see out of Cape Kennedy<strong>.</strong> It was slow to lift off, but as the dust settled the speed intensified and the chain reaction took hold after a few days of waiting and wondering.\r\n\r\nA huge sigh of relief came through the markets after the dust settled, the “fat cats” could squeeze a bit more, and as a bonus the USD related commodities received a boost even though fundamentally nothing had changed.\r\n\r\nThe FOMC held rates, the USD weakened and everything related to the USD also weakened such as Oil, Gold and Copper.\r\n\r\nThe domino effect takes hold and the commodity currencies that were previously in the crapper also rally, even though nothing has fundamentally changed. The USD bolted and left the stable…\r\n\r\nWe still have the same problems, it’s as if a pressure cooker that has been building up pressure for a few hours is suddenly allowed to let off steam, that is what I think has happened. The USD was wound up so tight ahead of the September 17<sup>th</sup> meeting that many positions were taken off the table in the Forex market ahead of the meeting and as a result liquidity was much lower. It was noted that institutional traders squared off prior to vacations in August and decided to wait until after the FOMC before re-entering the market.\r\n\r\nBoom…. there you go. You could almost hear the sound after the FOMC statement was released, digested and pondered about for a couple of days. What now?\r\n\r\nThe commodity currencies strengthened like crazy over the past two weeks and now they look over-stretched, over-done and tired.\r\n\r\nThere are opportunities on the horizon.\r\n\r\nRemember nothing has fundamentally changed…\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>Oil is in over supply.</li>\r\n	<li>Gold is priced too high, there is zero inflation, so in my opinion no need to own a non-producing bit of yellow metal.</li>\r\n	<li>The RBNZ, ECB, BOJ remain accommodative.</li>\r\n	<li>The RBA is now neutral, but for how long, its not all about the Sydney housing market.</li>\r\n	<li>The BOE according to Carney will raise rates ahead of the U.S. if deemed ready.</li>\r\n	<li>The SNB are ready to intervene to weaken the CHF.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nWe have Forex opportunities, we are able to trade at levels that offer great risk / reward trades.\r\n\r\nI just want to pick out the USD majors to highlight. Look at the charts of the AUD/USD and NZD/USD over the last two weeks or so (below), and, look at the extremes we are reaching. I am ignoring the cross rates in this article, but the moves in GBP/USD and in particular GBP/NZD have been spectacular, the GBP/NZD, in particular has received a Tony Soprano whacking.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AUDUSDDailyBOOM-CHART11092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6596\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AUDUSDDailyBOOM-CHART11092015.png\" alt=\"AUDUSDDailyBOOM CHART11092015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/NZDUSDWeeklyBOOM-CHART-11102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6597\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/NZDUSDWeeklyBOOM-CHART-11102015.png\" alt=\"NZDUSDWeeklyBOOM CHART 11102015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMy subscribers through my fee based Premium Service option will benefit, hopefully, from my thoughts of what to get into and when to enter.\r\n\r\nI am not saying that there is a commodity currency sale on now right in front of us, but the AUD/USD and NZD/USD are in areas of great interest to short from and the USD/CAD in my opinion will soon be a great long trade again.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:\r\n</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n3.1: SUMMARY OF YEAR TO DATE PERFORMANCE - 2015:\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">PREMIUM SERVICE – COST INCOME ANALYSIS (USD):</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">PROFITS FROM TRADE SET-UPS – to October 4th 2015.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">MICRO LOT TRADER - 536 trades cost to trade = $53.60\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 536 trades = <strong>$864.60</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">MINI LOT TRADER - 536 trades cost to trade = $536.00\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 536 trades = <strong>$8,646.00</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">STANDARD LOT TRADER - 536 trades cost to trade = $5,360.00\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 536 trades = <strong>$86,460.00</strong></p>\r\n3.2: PREMIUM SERVICE – TRADE SUMMARIES MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/PREM-SERV-PROFITS1-11102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6583\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/PREM-SERV-PROFITS1-11102015.png\" alt=\"PREM SERV PROFITS1 11102015\" width=\"513\" height=\"414\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/PREM-SERV-PROFITS2-11102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6584\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/PREM-SERV-PROFITS2-11102015.png\" alt=\"PREM SERV PROFITS2 11102015\" width=\"524\" height=\"415\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNOTES:\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>If the above return from Forex Trading interests you go to my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> and check out the subscription options and special promotions under the tabs “PREMIUM SERVICE” and “PROMOTIONS”</li>\r\n	<li>The performance above is based off single-lot trade sizes.</li>\r\n	<li>THE PREMIUM SERVICE has subscribers with broker accounts of sizes ranging from $2,500 to over $100,000. A profitable trade is a profitable trade. It is all about trading according to the size of your broker account (EFFECTIVE POSITION SIZING) and applying RISK MANAGEMENT principles at all times.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) SUBSCRIBER CONTENT:\r\n</strong>(The following section is additional data, thoughts, and ideas exclusively for PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) subscribers)</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n4.1: THE PREMIUM SERVICE – TRADING REVIEW:\r\n\r\nWow, I found that a tough week.\r\n\r\nI am trying to keep trades alive (USD/CHF and EUR/CHF), as these are key components of my TRADING PLAN through to the middle of next year.\r\n\r\nStubbornly, I held onto the CHF/JPY and USD/CAD. I booked losses of 505 pips on those two trades alone last week. I let the CHF/JPY (-195 pips) go, even though I want some JPY exposure moving forward. The QE rumblings and pressure from the markets, that is now being placed on Abe and Kuroda is bringing in outside “fast buck” speculators to the JPY currency. The USD/CAD (-310 pips) was a poor trade. I under-estimated the effect of the relief that the speculative side of the marketplace would have when the FOMC held rates and I completely under-estimated the effect that this would have on oil. I was blinded by my desire to have an open USD/CAD trade in my plan; I let that one go too far.\r\n\r\nTherefore, grabbing 30–40 pips here and there from what is at the moment, in my eyes a 30-40-pip Forex marketplace resulted in the PREMIUM SERVICE trading account still showing a positive for the month so far by a mere 16 pips. At least it is still positive!! Disappointing given the hours involved, but nevertheless still positive.\r\n\r\nIt may not look like it at times, but I am trying to build slowly in what is basically a chop fest some good start off positions for some core trades. It is not easy as the chopping here and there on a daily basis is somewhat frustrating.\r\n\r\nMy goal is to shift all my trade set-ups that form part of my longer-term TRADING PLAN into FUNDAMENTAL trades. It’s easier to measure performance. So there may be trades in the same currency pair to trigger at the same time with different parameters appearing, be patient it will become clearer as we move forward.\r\n\r\nIt is like the “chicken and egg”. I want to have positions in play to extract the best pricing but I do not want to be too aggressive at all and I do not want to establish too many positions inside a chop fest of a market.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.2: MAJOR TRADING PAIRS WITH LONGER-TERM MATCHING TRENDS:\r\n\r\n(The following currency pairs have Short Term (DAILY), Medium Term (WEEKLY) and Long Term (MONTHLY) charts all trending in the same direction).\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/TRENDING-PAIRS-11102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6592\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/TRENDING-PAIRS-11102015.png\" alt=\"TRENDING PAIRS 11102015\" width=\"487\" height=\"615\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.3: THE PREMIUM SERVICE - LIVE TRADES ARE:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/LIVE-TRADES-11102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6591\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/LIVE-TRADES-11102015.png\" alt=\"LIVE TRADES 11102015\" width=\"702\" height=\"553\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.4: THE PREMIUM SERVICE – LIMIT ORDER TRADES ARE:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/LIMIT-ORDERS-111012015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6590\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/LIMIT-ORDERS-111012015.png\" alt=\"LIMIT ORDERS 111012015\" width=\"686\" height=\"435\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.5: POTENTIAL TRADES - WHAT PAIRS / CHARTS AM I LOOKING AT?\r\n\r\nBelow are a few pairs that have caught my eye.\r\n\r\nThere are no comments other than those contained on the charts if applicable.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPNZD-W-11102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6601\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPNZD-W-11102015-1024x514.png\" alt=\"GBPNZD W 11102015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"514\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPAUD-W-11102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6602\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPAUD-W-11102015-1024x514.png\" alt=\"GBPAUD W 11102015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"514\" /></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> <a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURNZD-W-11102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6603\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURNZD-W-11102015-1024x514.png\" alt=\"EURNZD W 11102015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"514\" /></a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong><a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURCAD-240M-11102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6604\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURCAD-240M-11102015-1024x514.png\" alt=\"EURCAD 240M 11102015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"514\" /></a> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n	<li><strong> MY FINAL THOUGHTS:</strong><u> </u></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nOVERVIEW OF TRADING TIPS &amp; THOUGHTS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD:\r\n\r\nAnother week another chop fest!\r\n\r\nI see absolutely no reason at all why the market drivers should change this coming week.\r\n\r\nThe economic data dump has some interesting points with China and Australia to factor in but in real terms FED speculation and the price of oil will dominate once again in my opinion.\r\n\r\nIt is a chop fest, but there are some opportunities dotted about. In my opinion, the commodity currencies offer us these opportunities. If you have the stomach for it look at the commodity cross rates as well but be careful. They are so reactionary, being caught the wrong side in such a twitchy market can be a cruel experience.\r\n\r\nTrade smaller and wider to keep those hopes and dreams alive!\r\n\r\nWhilst we may not all have bodies as flexible as gymnasts our trading minds have to be just as flexible to achieve longevity.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nTake care.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nhttps://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/','IS NOW THE TIME TO SELL THE  COMMODITY CURRENCIES?','','inherit','closed','closed','','6605-revision-v1','','','2015-10-10 14:16:55','2015-10-10 19:16:55','',6605,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/6605-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(6612,1,'2015-10-10 14:44:51','2015-10-10 19:44:51','<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>THE PREMIUM SERVICE</strong>\r\n<strong>from the</strong>\r\n<strong>WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU</strong>\r\n<strong>“The Home of Single Lot Trading”</strong></p>\r\n\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li><strong> THE VIEW FROM MY TRADE DESK:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nLOOKING BACKWARDS, FORWARDS &amp; SIDEWAYS (FOR GOOD MEASURE) AT THE FX MARKET:\r\n\r\n1.1: LOOKING BACKWARDS:\r\n\r\nLast week it was all about U.S. Non Farm Payrolls, this week the FOMC meeting minutes from the meeting on September 17<sup>th </sup>took its place.\r\n\r\nFrom my perspective, given that the NFP data came after the last FOMC meeting and following the meeting there was so much press coverage of why the FED kept rates on hold, I expected the minutes to be a damp squib. Basically, unless they were tampered with, nothing new would be seen. The minutes gave me nothing new and following the release of the minutes all the “FED speak” has been basically around who is up for a rate hike in 2015 and who is into 2016 and beyond.\r\n\r\nThe end result = limbo = uncertainty, which in turn equals twitchy bottoms behind the trade desks.\r\n\r\nFrom a Forex perspective, this uncertainty has produced a break in commodity pressure and the commodity currencies; AUD, NZD and CAD in particular have all strengthened as a result.\r\n\r\nHowever, do they not look a little over-stretched now?\r\n\r\nMy main article in section 2 of this blog makes a few observations on this point.\r\n\r\nWe also heard from the BOJ, who are keeping things on hold, but there is huge interest in selling JPY as the rumours about the BOJ adding further quantitative easing (QE) at the end of this month are gathering momentum.\r\n\r\nPersonally, I do not see that QE has ever worked. If it is meant to be just a currency manipulation tool, then it does work. However, the various central banks that have adopted QE believe it a policy weapon to boost and strengthen flagging economies amongst other things. It keeps stock market prices inflated by providing a backstop to institutions; if you know the FED will support the markets with cash you have nothing to lose. You may recall the cartoon of Ben Bernanke in a helicopter dropping wads of cash over Wall Street and Chicago, Bernanke then became known as “Helicopter Ben”.\r\n\r\nThe financial markets on Wall Street may have been supported by QE, but the consumer confidence of Main Street, well, it simply did NOT happen. Housing is still weaker than expected and the U.S. economy has NOT bounced. 7 years on and we are still waiting. I have serious doubts over the effectiveness of QE unless its single purpose (denied of course) is to bolster equities.\r\n\r\nThe poster boy of QE, the FED the biggest and best in the world should note that after 7 years of zero interest rates they are sh*t scared to raise interest rates from zero by 0.25%..... someone please give me a fecking break…. QE is not all it’s cracked up to be, and, simply put it just has NOT worked.\r\n\r\nI just don\'t get it. The sooner we have the media proclaimed “Rock God’s” who are the beloved central bank governors or presidents own up to the fact that we are in a currency war and admit that they haven’t got a clue on how to tackle DEFLATION the better. Maybe then, the markets will be able to move and react better, rather than give us this very false position of relationship pricing that we have at the moment.\r\n\r\nSo, will the BOJ add more QE at the end of the month?\r\n\r\nHere’s my suggestion, Mr. Kuroda and Mr. Abe, give your dosh to me as I can waste your money just as efficiently as you guys can!!\r\n\r\nI cannot pass up the opportunity to talk about the next presenter for a BBC TV programme called Jackanory (Google it).\r\n\r\nMark Carney, he’s off on one again. For the love of God, the UK is NOT going to raise rates ahead of the FED. In the name of sanity, who believes this guy? Every time he speaks at a major media event, he changes his tune and contradicts or denies what was previously said within a few days. I am not wasting more words on this man because it is just farcical.\r\n\r\nCarney (BOE) and Wheeler (RBNZ) would make a great comedy stage act in the West End Theatres (London). They could be memory men, each testing the other on what they just said. With a few drinks it could be entertaining, but I wouldn’t pay for it.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n1.2: LOOKING FORWARD:\r\n\r\nMAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:\r\n\r\n(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market other than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to <a href=\"http://www.forexfactory.com\">www.forexfactory.com</a> and <a href=\"http://www.tradingeconomics.com\">www.tradingeconomics.com</a> for a more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).\r\nSUNDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: AUD – NAB Business Confidence.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: CNY – Trade balance and CPi.\r\nTUESDAY: GBP – CPi.\r\nTUESDAY: EUR – German ZEW Economic Sentiment.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: GBP – Employment Data.\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – Core Retail Sales and PPi.\r\nWEDNESDAY: AUD – Employment Data.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: USD – Core CPi.\r\nTHURSDAY: NZD – CPi.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: CAD – Manufacturing Sales.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMY THOUGHTS ON THE NEWS ITEMS THIS COMING WEEK:\r\n\r\nTo be frank, not a lot really warms my belly.\r\n\r\nI am not short the AUD at the moment as I think there is a bit higher we can see with the AUD/USD. It feels strange not being short all the commodity currencies so I will follow the AUD news closely. In addition, the Chinese data will be interesting to follow.\r\n\r\nI am bored writing about this next point, so you readers could be fed up reading it. The Core CPi and Retail Sales from the U.S. will be used to give hints on the FED rate hike. Maybe we are at the point of another weeks worth of crappy data from the U.S., which will kill off any thoughts of a rate hike in 2015. I can guarantee you that Janet Yellen will be beating herself up for not raising in September, or earlier in the year. Dithering never pays off in anything, it only frustrates and annoys all around you. The uncertainty will just go on and on hanging over the U.S. economy which by all accounts looks to be heading towards a recession if we carry on seeing poor data after poor data releases.\r\n\r\nTime will tell.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMY KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS THIS WEEK FOR USD MAJORS<strong>:</strong>\r\n\r\nIn this section I have as usual kept my charts as minimalist as possible. All readers regardless of level of experience should be able to follow my thoughts from my comments to the levels on the charts with ease.\r\n\r\nEUR/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.1361\r\n\r\nWe are range bound albeit in quite a big range as shown on the chart below; 1.1088 to 1.1459.\r\n\r\nThe daily chart looks bullish although we are now about 100 pips away from the highs seen straight after the FOMC “rates on hold” meeting last month. This could be a great area to short from if you have the patience to wait.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURUSDDaily11102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6594\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURUSDDaily11102015.png\" alt=\"EURUSDDaily11102015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.5315\r\n\r\nCable has been flip-flopping around as usual. We saw a couple of days last week when we were at the precipice only to see the bounce and then just as the market gets “bulled up”, bam…. the cable reverses.\r\n\r\nNothing new the GBP/USD is the master of false moves.\r\n\r\nWe look to be heading lower with the longer-term trend once again. From my perspective a break below through 1.5280 and definitely below 1.5200 should place the bears back in the driving seat once again.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPUSDDaily11102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6595\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPUSDDaily11102015.png\" alt=\"GBPUSDDaily11102015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.7336\r\n\r\nI read this pair wrong recently. I did not expect Glenn Stevens (RBA Governor) to go “girlie” and suggest that the RBA was now neutral. Add to this the commodity rush to buy this pair, which has resulted in elevating its value towards 0.7380, the 127.6% Fibonacci level. Looks like a great short to me at this level. Be patient and wait.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AUDUSDDailyBOOM-CHART11092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6596\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AUDUSDDailyBOOM-CHART11092015.png\" alt=\"AUDUSDDailyBOOM CHART11092015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.6694\r\n\r\nI remember when I used to repeatedly call out to my parents from the back of the car when we were going somewhere exciting…. “Are we there yet?”\r\n\r\nWe could be, this is the area maybe to test a short. Remember the RBNZ is hawkish. At least that was the impression I got last time from “Wheeler the dealer” and his side kick English at the RBNZ.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/NZDUSDWeeklyBOOM-CHART-11102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6597\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/NZDUSDWeeklyBOOM-CHART-11102015.png\" alt=\"NZDUSDWeeklyBOOM CHART 11102015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.2945\r\n\r\nI took a massive hit with this pair last week. We move on…. upwards to infinity and beyond. Well not quite… all I wanted last week was 1.3350.\r\n\r\nI see a BOC rate cut on the horizon after the election. The jobs data was surprisingly good last week. But alas…a huge word of warning, the job numbers came from the country that provided inaccurate jobs data for the best part of 2014. So it’s not just the Chinese data that you should question.\r\n\r\nI live in Quebec, the poor part of Canada, it is geographically huge (like most parts of Canada) and it has a huge population percentage of the Canadian total. It is dogged with huge problems all self-inflicted with complete and utter bloody mindedness and stubbornness at the heart/root of the issues that have plagued the province for decades. Quebec is failing, it lacks investment; jobs are disappearing because of its deep-rooted issues. Companies just give up and move out. The tension over language dominates everything and no one gives a rat’s hairy ar** that Quebec is imploding. It is language that is perceived to be important. Not jobs, health, education and infrastructure…. just language. The downward spiral in Quebec has been gathering a pace for years; it personifies uncertainty in every aspect and definition of the word.\r\n\r\nOn top of the Quebec issues, we have crashing oil prices and the job cut backs in Alberta and the service industries that support the Canadian oil industry from Ontario and British Columbia. In addition, the exchange rate difficulties that lower oil prices have on the USD/CAD relationship with Canada’s neighbour the USA, flags… Houston we have a problem.\r\n\r\nConsumer confidence numbers in Quebec have never been good but add in a few more provinces with issues and it’s not a pretty picture. Canada could mask the stupidity of Quebec, but not when more pieces of the jigsaw come apart.\r\n\r\nIf the oil price falls below $40.00 as I think it will, and we have a rate cut, which I think is a case of when and NOT if, we could have the USD/CAD at 1.5000-1.6000.\r\n\r\nWe are still in a bullish trend despite the recent sell-off. There are buying opportunities in my opinion.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCADWeekly11102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6598\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCADWeekly11102015.png\" alt=\"USDCADWeekly11102015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF - Weekly Closing Price: 0.9613\r\n\r\nI am STILL long this pair.\r\n\r\nI do expect it to breakout higher. I see 0.9550 as a big test should we drop to this level. I am prepared for it but do not like it. It is like an impending visit to the dentist hanging over me.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCHFDaily11102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6599\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCHFDaily11102015.png\" alt=\"USDCHFDaily11102015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY - Weekly Closing Price: 120.20\r\n\r\nThis pair is being speculated upon at the moment. Large-scale investors looking for a quick few dollars are banking on the BOJ adding more quantitative easing (QE) at the end of this month. I have already made my views known on the effectiveness of QE. That does not mean that I am correct. It is just my opinion. This pair could be one of those Forex great trades of “Buy the rumour sell the news”. 122.00 will be a key obstacle level of resistance to break, if the buying frenzy intensifies as we approach the end of the month.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDJPYDaily11102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6600\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDJPYDaily11102015.png\" alt=\"USDJPYDaily11102015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n1.3: LOOKING SIDEWAYS (FOR GOOD MEASURE):\r\n\r\nThis week I want to focus a little on liquidity and how the volumes in the Forex market are changing and how this affects us as traders.\r\n\r\nThe reason that I want to talk about this is that I noticed a huge change after the summer this year. In writing about this, I realize that the FOMC meeting that took place on September 17<sup>th</sup> may have been a deciding factor in low liquidity lasting longer than usual, with institutional and senior bank market makers staying out and away from trading activity for longer.\r\n\r\nVolumes are down and liquidity is thinner. This means we have to be a bit more savvy. What do I mean?\r\n\r\nThis is not just about the hours to trade there is a knock-on effect for currency pairs to trade as well in my opinion.\r\n\r\nThe Forex trading hours are 24 hours a day 5 days a week. Within these hours there are peak trading times with good volumes of cash flowing in and out of the market and then there are thin trading times when liquidity and cash in and out is poor by comparison to the better volume hours.\r\n\r\nBasically I see it as follows: -\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/FX-TRADING-TIMES-11102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6593\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/FX-TRADING-TIMES-11102015.png\" alt=\"FX TRADING TIMES 11102015\" width=\"820\" height=\"351\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe major financial centre times for trading are marked in RED by the hours that they are open.\r\n\r\nBeneath this, I have what I call the previous best times to trade shown in BLUE.\r\n\r\nAt the foot of the table is what I am calling the best times to trade Forex shown in GREEN.\r\n\r\nMy revisions are based on times when there are what I call good two-way flows.\r\n\r\nJust like trading the EUR/USD you know that it always has great liquidity and two-way action. The markets are the same.\r\n\r\nThe Forex market has changed and liquidity flowing through into the markets is stronger when markets open up to start trading and again when two markets are open together.\r\n\r\nOverall, Forex market trading volumes are lower, less cash is being placed into Forex therefore it stands to reason that all the markets will suffer. The worst markets for liquidity are those open in Asian trading, these are now more likely to have wilder swing moves and we have seen some rather strange breakout moves only to be swatted back into line when London opens and liquidity improves.\r\n\r\nBoth London and New York are victims of lower liquidity, they are not exempt, but the fact is they are the powerhouses of the Forex Market and whilst lower volumes may be placed through these markets, volumes are still acceptable as they were in 2014, as far as I am concerned.\r\n\r\nWithout doubt, the European / North American session when running together offers the best trading conditions.\r\n\r\nWith regards to currencies, the exotic currencies, which see lower volumes in any case, will be more of a minefield if the overall market is starved of liquidity.\r\n\r\nTherefore looking specifically at the Asian session, which in my opinion is the most troublesome. Trading the USD majors will always offer better liquidity along with the EUR/JPY, EUR/GBP.\r\n\r\nTrading JPY pairs can be scary as well, but they tend to be driven by the USD/JPY so as long as you watch this pair you can be guided and it stands to reason that in Asian sessions the JPY pairs should have acceptable volumes. Only the CAD/JPY and CHF/JPY struggle a bit at times.\r\n\r\nTrading exotics (EUR/NZD, EUR/CAD, GBP/NZD, GBP/CAD, EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD) can be difficult at the best of times due to the volatility, which even in a good strong market is awkward. In thinner trading sessions you can lose a lot of money very quickly if you are not careful with these.\r\n\r\nEmerging market currencies in the Asian session, well I wouldn’t go there.\r\n\r\nBasically, as long as you make a note to self that the Asian markets are going to be slow with volatile moments as countries come on line and liquidity improves for a few minutes, you will be fine.\r\n\r\nI just think that as traders we have to be aware of everything possible that can scupper a great trade.\r\n\r\nThe solutions to the Asian markets: -\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li>Don’t trade them.</li>\r\n	<li>Smaller positions with wider stops.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n	<li><strong> WHAT’S ON MY MIND:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>IS NOW THE TIME TO SELL THE</strong>\r\n<strong>COMMODITY CURRENCIES?</strong></p>\r\nWhen the FOMC left interest rates unchanged on September 17th it was a game changer for commodities and commodity currencies. It took a couple of days for the dust to settle and a few more days for the commodity currencies to react but the chain of events, “the domino effect” took hold.\r\n\r\nA lot of what has happened since is confusing at times, is the dog wagging its tail, or, is it the tail that is wagging the dog?\r\n\r\nOil, is the classic example of this. Despite the “rig count” reducing and inventories moving around a little, we are still in a pump it, pump it, pump it environment, or as it was once said “drill baby drill”. I know oil is a highly speculative hedging commodity and as I call them “the high-rollers” love to speculate on oil. My God, there is a vast range of speculators trying to nail down a futures price and buy forward. The oil market is from my perspective a real game of “chance”.\r\n\r\nIn addition, the media and markets look to OPEC for guidance regarding oil output etc. However, there lies another problem as OPEC does NOT represent all the oil producers in the world and as the body to represent oil producers it\'s about as useful as a chocolate teapot. Russia, the UK, Norway, USA, Canada and Mexico are not in OPEC. Yet these are all significant oil producers and/or exporters.\r\n\r\nBasically for over a year now oil has had a supply and demand problem. There is too much oil in the market and not enough people wanting to buy it. Thus, the price moves lower, as producers seek buyers. Oil is priced in USD.\r\n\r\nHaving just written that, the desire for these speculators to find a bottom in the oil market is huge. Probably given the cash at stake, bigger than any other open market.\r\n\r\nAs soon as the FED announced a hold on an interest rate increase, it reminded me of the equivalent of a Saturn V rocket lift off, like we used to see out of Cape Kennedy<strong>.</strong> It was slow to lift off, but as the dust settled the speed intensified and the chain reaction took hold after a few days of waiting and wondering.\r\n\r\nA huge sigh of relief came through the markets after the dust settled, the “fat cats” could squeeze a bit more, and as a bonus the USD related commodities received a boost even though fundamentally nothing had changed.\r\n\r\nThe FOMC held rates, the USD weakened and everything related to the USD also weakened such as Oil, Gold and Copper.\r\n\r\nThe domino effect takes hold and the commodity currencies that were previously in the crapper also rally, even though nothing has fundamentally changed. The USD bolted and left the stable…\r\n\r\nWe still have the same problems, it’s as if a pressure cooker that has been building up pressure for a few hours is suddenly allowed to let off steam, that is what I think has happened. The USD was wound up so tight ahead of the September 17<sup>th</sup> meeting that many positions were taken off the table in the Forex market ahead of the meeting and as a result liquidity was much lower. It was noted that institutional traders squared off prior to vacations in August and decided to wait until after the FOMC before re-entering the market.\r\n\r\nBoom…. there you go. You could almost hear the sound after the FOMC statement was released, digested and pondered about for a couple of days. What now?\r\n\r\nThe commodity currencies strengthened like crazy over the past two weeks and now they look over-stretched, over-done and tired.\r\n\r\nThere are opportunities on the horizon.\r\n\r\nRemember nothing has fundamentally changed…\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>Oil is in over supply.</li>\r\n	<li>Gold is priced too high, there is zero inflation, so in my opinion no need to own a non-producing bit of yellow metal.</li>\r\n	<li>The RBNZ, ECB, BOJ remain accommodative.</li>\r\n	<li>The RBA is now neutral, but for how long, its not all about the Sydney housing market.</li>\r\n	<li>The BOE according to Carney will raise rates ahead of the U.S. if deemed ready.</li>\r\n	<li>The SNB are ready to intervene to weaken the CHF.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nWe have Forex opportunities, we are able to trade at levels that offer great risk / reward trades.\r\n\r\nI just want to pick out the USD majors to highlight. Look at the charts of the AUD/USD and NZD/USD over the last two weeks or so (below), and, look at the extremes we are reaching. I am ignoring the cross rates in this article, but the moves in GBP/USD and in particular GBP/NZD have been spectacular, the GBP/NZD, in particular has received a Tony Soprano whacking.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AUDUSDDailyBOOM-CHART11092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6596\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AUDUSDDailyBOOM-CHART11092015.png\" alt=\"AUDUSDDailyBOOM CHART11092015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/NZDUSDWeeklyBOOM-CHART-11102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6597\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/NZDUSDWeeklyBOOM-CHART-11102015.png\" alt=\"NZDUSDWeeklyBOOM CHART 11102015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMy subscribers through my fee based Premium Service option will benefit, hopefully, from my thoughts of what to get into and when to enter.\r\n\r\nI am not saying that there is a commodity currency sale on now right in front of us, but the AUD/USD and NZD/USD are in areas of great interest to short from and the USD/CAD in my opinion will soon be a great long trade again.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:\r\n</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n3.1: SUMMARY OF YEAR TO DATE PERFORMANCE - 2015:\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">PREMIUM SERVICE – COST INCOME ANALYSIS (USD):</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">PROFITS FROM TRADE SET-UPS – to October 4th 2015.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">MICRO LOT TRADER - 536 trades cost to trade = $53.60\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 536 trades = <strong>$864.60</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">MINI LOT TRADER - 536 trades cost to trade = $536.00\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 536 trades = <strong>$8,646.00</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">STANDARD LOT TRADER - 536 trades cost to trade = $5,360.00\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 536 trades = <strong>$86,460.00</strong></p>\r\n3.2: PREMIUM SERVICE – TRADE SUMMARIES MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/PREM-SERV-PROFITS1-11102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6583\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/PREM-SERV-PROFITS1-11102015.png\" alt=\"PREM SERV PROFITS1 11102015\" width=\"513\" height=\"414\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/PREM-SERV-PROFITS2-11102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6584\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/PREM-SERV-PROFITS2-11102015.png\" alt=\"PREM SERV PROFITS2 11102015\" width=\"524\" height=\"415\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNOTES:\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>If the above return from Forex Trading interests you go to my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> and check out the subscription options and special promotions under the tabs “PREMIUM SERVICE” and “PROMOTIONS”</li>\r\n	<li>The performance above is based off single-lot trade sizes.</li>\r\n	<li>THE PREMIUM SERVICE has subscribers with broker accounts of sizes ranging from $2,500 to over $100,000. A profitable trade is a profitable trade. It is all about trading according to the size of your broker account (EFFECTIVE POSITION SIZING) and applying RISK MANAGEMENT principles at all times.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) SUBSCRIBER CONTENT:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(The following section is additional data, thoughts, and ideas exclusively for PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) subscribers)\r\n\r\n4.1: THE PREMIUM SERVICE – TRADING REVIEW:\r\n\r\n4.2: MAJOR TRADING PAIRS WITH LONGER-TERM MATCHING TRENDS:\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.3: THE PREMIUM SERVICE - LIVE TRADES ARE:\r\n\r\n4.4: THE PREMIUM SERVICE – LIMIT ORDER TRADES ARE\r\n\r\n4.5: POTENTIAL TRADES - WHAT PAIRS / CHARTS AM I LOOKING AT?\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n	<li><strong> MY FINAL THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nOVERVIEW OF TRADING TIPS &amp; THOUGHTS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD:\r\n\r\nAnother week another chop fest!\r\n\r\nI see absolutely no reason at all why the market drivers should change this coming week.\r\n\r\nThe economic data dump has some interesting points with China and Australia to factor in but in real terms FED speculation and the price of oil will dominate once again in my opinion.\r\n\r\nIt is a chop fest, but there are some opportunities dotted about. In my opinion, the commodity currencies offer us these opportunities. If you have the stomach for it look at the commodity cross rates as well but be careful. They are so reactionary, being caught the wrong side in such a twitchy market can be a cruel experience.\r\n\r\nTrade smaller and wider to keep those hopes and dreams alive!\r\n\r\nWhilst we may not all have bodies as flexible as gymnasts our trading minds have to be just as flexible to achieve longevity.\r\n\r\nTake care.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nhttps://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\r\nBLOG REF #172','IS NOW THE TIME TO SELL THE  COMMODITY CURRENCIES?','','publish','open','closed','','is-now-the-time-to-sell-the-commodity-currencies','','','2015-10-10 14:44:51','2015-10-10 19:44:51','',0,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?p=6612',0,'post','',0),(6614,1,'2015-10-10 14:44:51','2015-10-10 19:44:51','<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>THE PREMIUM SERVICE</strong>\r\n<strong>from the</strong>\r\n<strong>WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU</strong>\r\n<strong>“The Home of Single Lot Trading”</strong></p>\r\n\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li><strong> THE VIEW FROM MY TRADE DESK:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nLOOKING BACKWARDS, FORWARDS &amp; SIDEWAYS (FOR GOOD MEASURE) AT THE FX MARKET:\r\n\r\n1.1: LOOKING BACKWARDS:\r\n\r\nLast week it was all about U.S. Non Farm Payrolls, this week the FOMC meeting minutes from the meeting on September 17<sup>th </sup>took its place.\r\n\r\nFrom my perspective, given that the NFP data came after the last FOMC meeting and following the meeting there was so much press coverage of why the FED kept rates on hold, I expected the minutes to be a damp squib. Basically, unless they were tampered with, nothing new would be seen. The minutes gave me nothing new and following the release of the minutes all the “FED speak” has been basically around who is up for a rate hike in 2015 and who is into 2016 and beyond.\r\n\r\nThe end result = limbo = uncertainty, which in turn equals twitchy bottoms behind the trade desks.\r\n\r\nFrom a Forex perspective, this uncertainty has produced a break in commodity pressure and the commodity currencies; AUD, NZD and CAD in particular have all strengthened as a result.\r\n\r\nHowever, do they not look a little over-stretched now?\r\n\r\nMy main article in section 2 of this blog makes a few observations on this point.\r\n\r\nWe also heard from the BOJ, who are keeping things on hold, but there is huge interest in selling JPY as the rumours about the BOJ adding further quantitative easing (QE) at the end of this month are gathering momentum.\r\n\r\nPersonally, I do not see that QE has ever worked. If it is meant to be just a currency manipulation tool, then it does work. However, the various central banks that have adopted QE believe it a policy weapon to boost and strengthen flagging economies amongst other things. It keeps stock market prices inflated by providing a backstop to institutions; if you know the FED will support the markets with cash you have nothing to lose. You may recall the cartoon of Ben Bernanke in a helicopter dropping wads of cash over Wall Street and Chicago, Bernanke then became known as “Helicopter Ben”.\r\n\r\nThe financial markets on Wall Street may have been supported by QE, but the consumer confidence of Main Street, well, it simply did NOT happen. Housing is still weaker than expected and the U.S. economy has NOT bounced. 7 years on and we are still waiting. I have serious doubts over the effectiveness of QE unless its single purpose (denied of course) is to bolster equities.\r\n\r\nThe poster boy of QE, the FED the biggest and best in the world should note that after 7 years of zero interest rates they are sh*t scared to raise interest rates from zero by 0.25%..... someone please give me a fecking break…. QE is not all it’s cracked up to be, and, simply put it just has NOT worked.\r\n\r\nI just don\'t get it. The sooner we have the media proclaimed “Rock God’s” who are the beloved central bank governors or presidents own up to the fact that we are in a currency war and admit that they haven’t got a clue on how to tackle DEFLATION the better. Maybe then, the markets will be able to move and react better, rather than give us this very false position of relationship pricing that we have at the moment.\r\n\r\nSo, will the BOJ add more QE at the end of the month?\r\n\r\nHere’s my suggestion, Mr. Kuroda and Mr. Abe, give your dosh to me as I can waste your money just as efficiently as you guys can!!\r\n\r\nI cannot pass up the opportunity to talk about the next presenter for a BBC TV programme called Jackanory (Google it).\r\n\r\nMark Carney, he’s off on one again. For the love of God, the UK is NOT going to raise rates ahead of the FED. In the name of sanity, who believes this guy? Every time he speaks at a major media event, he changes his tune and contradicts or denies what was previously said within a few days. I am not wasting more words on this man because it is just farcical.\r\n\r\nCarney (BOE) and Wheeler (RBNZ) would make a great comedy stage act in the West End Theatres (London). They could be memory men, each testing the other on what they just said. With a few drinks it could be entertaining, but I wouldn’t pay for it.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n1.2: LOOKING FORWARD:\r\n\r\nMAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:\r\n\r\n(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market other than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to <a href=\"http://www.forexfactory.com\">www.forexfactory.com</a> and <a href=\"http://www.tradingeconomics.com\">www.tradingeconomics.com</a> for a more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).\r\nSUNDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: AUD – NAB Business Confidence.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: CNY – Trade balance and CPi.\r\nTUESDAY: GBP – CPi.\r\nTUESDAY: EUR – German ZEW Economic Sentiment.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: GBP – Employment Data.\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – Core Retail Sales and PPi.\r\nWEDNESDAY: AUD – Employment Data.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: USD – Core CPi.\r\nTHURSDAY: NZD – CPi.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: CAD – Manufacturing Sales.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMY THOUGHTS ON THE NEWS ITEMS THIS COMING WEEK:\r\n\r\nTo be frank, not a lot really warms my belly.\r\n\r\nI am not short the AUD at the moment as I think there is a bit higher we can see with the AUD/USD. It feels strange not being short all the commodity currencies so I will follow the AUD news closely. In addition, the Chinese data will be interesting to follow.\r\n\r\nI am bored writing about this next point, so you readers could be fed up reading it. The Core CPi and Retail Sales from the U.S. will be used to give hints on the FED rate hike. Maybe we are at the point of another weeks worth of crappy data from the U.S., which will kill off any thoughts of a rate hike in 2015. I can guarantee you that Janet Yellen will be beating herself up for not raising in September, or earlier in the year. Dithering never pays off in anything, it only frustrates and annoys all around you. The uncertainty will just go on and on hanging over the U.S. economy which by all accounts looks to be heading towards a recession if we carry on seeing poor data after poor data releases.\r\n\r\nTime will tell.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMY KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS THIS WEEK FOR USD MAJORS<strong>:</strong>\r\n\r\nIn this section I have as usual kept my charts as minimalist as possible. All readers regardless of level of experience should be able to follow my thoughts from my comments to the levels on the charts with ease.\r\n\r\nEUR/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.1361\r\n\r\nWe are range bound albeit in quite a big range as shown on the chart below; 1.1088 to 1.1459.\r\n\r\nThe daily chart looks bullish although we are now about 100 pips away from the highs seen straight after the FOMC “rates on hold” meeting last month. This could be a great area to short from if you have the patience to wait.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURUSDDaily11102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6594\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURUSDDaily11102015.png\" alt=\"EURUSDDaily11102015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.5315\r\n\r\nCable has been flip-flopping around as usual. We saw a couple of days last week when we were at the precipice only to see the bounce and then just as the market gets “bulled up”, bam…. the cable reverses.\r\n\r\nNothing new the GBP/USD is the master of false moves.\r\n\r\nWe look to be heading lower with the longer-term trend once again. From my perspective a break below through 1.5280 and definitely below 1.5200 should place the bears back in the driving seat once again.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPUSDDaily11102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6595\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPUSDDaily11102015.png\" alt=\"GBPUSDDaily11102015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.7336\r\n\r\nI read this pair wrong recently. I did not expect Glenn Stevens (RBA Governor) to go “girlie” and suggest that the RBA was now neutral. Add to this the commodity rush to buy this pair, which has resulted in elevating its value towards 0.7380, the 127.6% Fibonacci level. Looks like a great short to me at this level. Be patient and wait.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AUDUSDDailyBOOM-CHART11092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6596\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AUDUSDDailyBOOM-CHART11092015.png\" alt=\"AUDUSDDailyBOOM CHART11092015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.6694\r\n\r\nI remember when I used to repeatedly call out to my parents from the back of the car when we were going somewhere exciting…. “Are we there yet?”\r\n\r\nWe could be, this is the area maybe to test a short. Remember the RBNZ is hawkish. At least that was the impression I got last time from “Wheeler the dealer” and his side kick English at the RBNZ.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/NZDUSDWeeklyBOOM-CHART-11102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6597\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/NZDUSDWeeklyBOOM-CHART-11102015.png\" alt=\"NZDUSDWeeklyBOOM CHART 11102015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.2945\r\n\r\nI took a massive hit with this pair last week. We move on…. upwards to infinity and beyond. Well not quite… all I wanted last week was 1.3350.\r\n\r\nI see a BOC rate cut on the horizon after the election. The jobs data was surprisingly good last week. But alas…a huge word of warning, the job numbers came from the country that provided inaccurate jobs data for the best part of 2014. So it’s not just the Chinese data that you should question.\r\n\r\nI live in Quebec, the poor part of Canada, it is geographically huge (like most parts of Canada) and it has a huge population percentage of the Canadian total. It is dogged with huge problems all self-inflicted with complete and utter bloody mindedness and stubbornness at the heart/root of the issues that have plagued the province for decades. Quebec is failing, it lacks investment; jobs are disappearing because of its deep-rooted issues. Companies just give up and move out. The tension over language dominates everything and no one gives a rat’s hairy ar** that Quebec is imploding. It is language that is perceived to be important. Not jobs, health, education and infrastructure…. just language. The downward spiral in Quebec has been gathering a pace for years; it personifies uncertainty in every aspect and definition of the word.\r\n\r\nOn top of the Quebec issues, we have crashing oil prices and the job cut backs in Alberta and the service industries that support the Canadian oil industry from Ontario and British Columbia. In addition, the exchange rate difficulties that lower oil prices have on the USD/CAD relationship with Canada’s neighbour the USA, flags… Houston we have a problem.\r\n\r\nConsumer confidence numbers in Quebec have never been good but add in a few more provinces with issues and it’s not a pretty picture. Canada could mask the stupidity of Quebec, but not when more pieces of the jigsaw come apart.\r\n\r\nIf the oil price falls below $40.00 as I think it will, and we have a rate cut, which I think is a case of when and NOT if, we could have the USD/CAD at 1.5000-1.6000.\r\n\r\nWe are still in a bullish trend despite the recent sell-off. There are buying opportunities in my opinion.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCADWeekly11102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6598\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCADWeekly11102015.png\" alt=\"USDCADWeekly11102015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF - Weekly Closing Price: 0.9613\r\n\r\nI am STILL long this pair.\r\n\r\nI do expect it to breakout higher. I see 0.9550 as a big test should we drop to this level. I am prepared for it but do not like it. It is like an impending visit to the dentist hanging over me.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCHFDaily11102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6599\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCHFDaily11102015.png\" alt=\"USDCHFDaily11102015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY - Weekly Closing Price: 120.20\r\n\r\nThis pair is being speculated upon at the moment. Large-scale investors looking for a quick few dollars are banking on the BOJ adding more quantitative easing (QE) at the end of this month. I have already made my views known on the effectiveness of QE. That does not mean that I am correct. It is just my opinion. This pair could be one of those Forex great trades of “Buy the rumour sell the news”. 122.00 will be a key obstacle level of resistance to break, if the buying frenzy intensifies as we approach the end of the month.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDJPYDaily11102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6600\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDJPYDaily11102015.png\" alt=\"USDJPYDaily11102015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n1.3: LOOKING SIDEWAYS (FOR GOOD MEASURE):\r\n\r\nThis week I want to focus a little on liquidity and how the volumes in the Forex market are changing and how this affects us as traders.\r\n\r\nThe reason that I want to talk about this is that I noticed a huge change after the summer this year. In writing about this, I realize that the FOMC meeting that took place on September 17<sup>th</sup> may have been a deciding factor in low liquidity lasting longer than usual, with institutional and senior bank market makers staying out and away from trading activity for longer.\r\n\r\nVolumes are down and liquidity is thinner. This means we have to be a bit more savvy. What do I mean?\r\n\r\nThis is not just about the hours to trade there is a knock-on effect for currency pairs to trade as well in my opinion.\r\n\r\nThe Forex trading hours are 24 hours a day 5 days a week. Within these hours there are peak trading times with good volumes of cash flowing in and out of the market and then there are thin trading times when liquidity and cash in and out is poor by comparison to the better volume hours.\r\n\r\nBasically I see it as follows: -\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/FX-TRADING-TIMES-11102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6593\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/FX-TRADING-TIMES-11102015.png\" alt=\"FX TRADING TIMES 11102015\" width=\"820\" height=\"351\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe major financial centre times for trading are marked in RED by the hours that they are open.\r\n\r\nBeneath this, I have what I call the previous best times to trade shown in BLUE.\r\n\r\nAt the foot of the table is what I am calling the best times to trade Forex shown in GREEN.\r\n\r\nMy revisions are based on times when there are what I call good two-way flows.\r\n\r\nJust like trading the EUR/USD you know that it always has great liquidity and two-way action. The markets are the same.\r\n\r\nThe Forex market has changed and liquidity flowing through into the markets is stronger when markets open up to start trading and again when two markets are open together.\r\n\r\nOverall, Forex market trading volumes are lower, less cash is being placed into Forex therefore it stands to reason that all the markets will suffer. The worst markets for liquidity are those open in Asian trading, these are now more likely to have wilder swing moves and we have seen some rather strange breakout moves only to be swatted back into line when London opens and liquidity improves.\r\n\r\nBoth London and New York are victims of lower liquidity, they are not exempt, but the fact is they are the powerhouses of the Forex Market and whilst lower volumes may be placed through these markets, volumes are still acceptable as they were in 2014, as far as I am concerned.\r\n\r\nWithout doubt, the European / North American session when running together offers the best trading conditions.\r\n\r\nWith regards to currencies, the exotic currencies, which see lower volumes in any case, will be more of a minefield if the overall market is starved of liquidity.\r\n\r\nTherefore looking specifically at the Asian session, which in my opinion is the most troublesome. Trading the USD majors will always offer better liquidity along with the EUR/JPY, EUR/GBP.\r\n\r\nTrading JPY pairs can be scary as well, but they tend to be driven by the USD/JPY so as long as you watch this pair you can be guided and it stands to reason that in Asian sessions the JPY pairs should have acceptable volumes. Only the CAD/JPY and CHF/JPY struggle a bit at times.\r\n\r\nTrading exotics (EUR/NZD, EUR/CAD, GBP/NZD, GBP/CAD, EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD) can be difficult at the best of times due to the volatility, which even in a good strong market is awkward. In thinner trading sessions you can lose a lot of money very quickly if you are not careful with these.\r\n\r\nEmerging market currencies in the Asian session, well I wouldn’t go there.\r\n\r\nBasically, as long as you make a note to self that the Asian markets are going to be slow with volatile moments as countries come on line and liquidity improves for a few minutes, you will be fine.\r\n\r\nI just think that as traders we have to be aware of everything possible that can scupper a great trade.\r\n\r\nThe solutions to the Asian markets: -\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li>Don’t trade them.</li>\r\n	<li>Smaller positions with wider stops.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n	<li><strong> WHAT’S ON MY MIND:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>IS NOW THE TIME TO SELL THE</strong>\r\n<strong>COMMODITY CURRENCIES?</strong></p>\r\nWhen the FOMC left interest rates unchanged on September 17th it was a game changer for commodities and commodity currencies. It took a couple of days for the dust to settle and a few more days for the commodity currencies to react but the chain of events, “the domino effect” took hold.\r\n\r\nA lot of what has happened since is confusing at times, is the dog wagging its tail, or, is it the tail that is wagging the dog?\r\n\r\nOil, is the classic example of this. Despite the “rig count” reducing and inventories moving around a little, we are still in a pump it, pump it, pump it environment, or as it was once said “drill baby drill”. I know oil is a highly speculative hedging commodity and as I call them “the high-rollers” love to speculate on oil. My God, there is a vast range of speculators trying to nail down a futures price and buy forward. The oil market is from my perspective a real game of “chance”.\r\n\r\nIn addition, the media and markets look to OPEC for guidance regarding oil output etc. However, there lies another problem as OPEC does NOT represent all the oil producers in the world and as the body to represent oil producers it\'s about as useful as a chocolate teapot. Russia, the UK, Norway, USA, Canada and Mexico are not in OPEC. Yet these are all significant oil producers and/or exporters.\r\n\r\nBasically for over a year now oil has had a supply and demand problem. There is too much oil in the market and not enough people wanting to buy it. Thus, the price moves lower, as producers seek buyers. Oil is priced in USD.\r\n\r\nHaving just written that, the desire for these speculators to find a bottom in the oil market is huge. Probably given the cash at stake, bigger than any other open market.\r\n\r\nAs soon as the FED announced a hold on an interest rate increase, it reminded me of the equivalent of a Saturn V rocket lift off, like we used to see out of Cape Kennedy<strong>.</strong> It was slow to lift off, but as the dust settled the speed intensified and the chain reaction took hold after a few days of waiting and wondering.\r\n\r\nA huge sigh of relief came through the markets after the dust settled, the “fat cats” could squeeze a bit more, and as a bonus the USD related commodities received a boost even though fundamentally nothing had changed.\r\n\r\nThe FOMC held rates, the USD weakened and everything related to the USD also weakened such as Oil, Gold and Copper.\r\n\r\nThe domino effect takes hold and the commodity currencies that were previously in the crapper also rally, even though nothing has fundamentally changed. The USD bolted and left the stable…\r\n\r\nWe still have the same problems, it’s as if a pressure cooker that has been building up pressure for a few hours is suddenly allowed to let off steam, that is what I think has happened. The USD was wound up so tight ahead of the September 17<sup>th</sup> meeting that many positions were taken off the table in the Forex market ahead of the meeting and as a result liquidity was much lower. It was noted that institutional traders squared off prior to vacations in August and decided to wait until after the FOMC before re-entering the market.\r\n\r\nBoom…. there you go. You could almost hear the sound after the FOMC statement was released, digested and pondered about for a couple of days. What now?\r\n\r\nThe commodity currencies strengthened like crazy over the past two weeks and now they look over-stretched, over-done and tired.\r\n\r\nThere are opportunities on the horizon.\r\n\r\nRemember nothing has fundamentally changed…\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>Oil is in over supply.</li>\r\n	<li>Gold is priced too high, there is zero inflation, so in my opinion no need to own a non-producing bit of yellow metal.</li>\r\n	<li>The RBNZ, ECB, BOJ remain accommodative.</li>\r\n	<li>The RBA is now neutral, but for how long, its not all about the Sydney housing market.</li>\r\n	<li>The BOE according to Carney will raise rates ahead of the U.S. if deemed ready.</li>\r\n	<li>The SNB are ready to intervene to weaken the CHF.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nWe have Forex opportunities, we are able to trade at levels that offer great risk / reward trades.\r\n\r\nI just want to pick out the USD majors to highlight. Look at the charts of the AUD/USD and NZD/USD over the last two weeks or so (below), and, look at the extremes we are reaching. I am ignoring the cross rates in this article, but the moves in GBP/USD and in particular GBP/NZD have been spectacular, the GBP/NZD, in particular has received a Tony Soprano whacking.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AUDUSDDailyBOOM-CHART11092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6596\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AUDUSDDailyBOOM-CHART11092015.png\" alt=\"AUDUSDDailyBOOM CHART11092015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/NZDUSDWeeklyBOOM-CHART-11102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6597\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/NZDUSDWeeklyBOOM-CHART-11102015.png\" alt=\"NZDUSDWeeklyBOOM CHART 11102015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMy subscribers through my fee based Premium Service option will benefit, hopefully, from my thoughts of what to get into and when to enter.\r\n\r\nI am not saying that there is a commodity currency sale on now right in front of us, but the AUD/USD and NZD/USD are in areas of great interest to short from and the USD/CAD in my opinion will soon be a great long trade again.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:\r\n</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n3.1: SUMMARY OF YEAR TO DATE PERFORMANCE - 2015:\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">PREMIUM SERVICE – COST INCOME ANALYSIS (USD):</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">PROFITS FROM TRADE SET-UPS – to October 4th 2015.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">MICRO LOT TRADER - 536 trades cost to trade = $53.60\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 536 trades = <strong>$864.60</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">MINI LOT TRADER - 536 trades cost to trade = $536.00\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 536 trades = <strong>$8,646.00</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">STANDARD LOT TRADER - 536 trades cost to trade = $5,360.00\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 536 trades = <strong>$86,460.00</strong></p>\r\n3.2: PREMIUM SERVICE – TRADE SUMMARIES MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/PREM-SERV-PROFITS1-11102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6583\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/PREM-SERV-PROFITS1-11102015.png\" alt=\"PREM SERV PROFITS1 11102015\" width=\"513\" height=\"414\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/PREM-SERV-PROFITS2-11102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6584\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/PREM-SERV-PROFITS2-11102015.png\" alt=\"PREM SERV PROFITS2 11102015\" width=\"524\" height=\"415\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNOTES:\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>If the above return from Forex Trading interests you go to my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> and check out the subscription options and special promotions under the tabs “PREMIUM SERVICE” and “PROMOTIONS”</li>\r\n	<li>The performance above is based off single-lot trade sizes.</li>\r\n	<li>THE PREMIUM SERVICE has subscribers with broker accounts of sizes ranging from $2,500 to over $100,000. A profitable trade is a profitable trade. It is all about trading according to the size of your broker account (EFFECTIVE POSITION SIZING) and applying RISK MANAGEMENT principles at all times.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) SUBSCRIBER CONTENT:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(The following section is additional data, thoughts, and ideas exclusively for PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) subscribers)\r\n\r\n4.1: THE PREMIUM SERVICE – TRADING REVIEW:\r\n\r\n4.2: MAJOR TRADING PAIRS WITH LONGER-TERM MATCHING TRENDS:\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.3: THE PREMIUM SERVICE - LIVE TRADES ARE:\r\n\r\n4.4: THE PREMIUM SERVICE – LIMIT ORDER TRADES ARE\r\n\r\n4.5: POTENTIAL TRADES - WHAT PAIRS / CHARTS AM I LOOKING AT?\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n	<li><strong> MY FINAL THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nOVERVIEW OF TRADING TIPS &amp; THOUGHTS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD:\r\n\r\nAnother week another chop fest!\r\n\r\nI see absolutely no reason at all why the market drivers should change this coming week.\r\n\r\nThe economic data dump has some interesting points with China and Australia to factor in but in real terms FED speculation and the price of oil will dominate once again in my opinion.\r\n\r\nIt is a chop fest, but there are some opportunities dotted about. In my opinion, the commodity currencies offer us these opportunities. If you have the stomach for it look at the commodity cross rates as well but be careful. They are so reactionary, being caught the wrong side in such a twitchy market can be a cruel experience.\r\n\r\nTrade smaller and wider to keep those hopes and dreams alive!\r\n\r\nWhilst we may not all have bodies as flexible as gymnasts our trading minds have to be just as flexible to achieve longevity.\r\n\r\nTake care.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nhttps://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\r\nBLOG REF #172','IS NOW THE TIME TO SELL THE  COMMODITY CURRENCIES?','','inherit','closed','closed','','6612-revision-v1','','','2015-10-10 14:44:51','2015-10-10 19:44:51','',6612,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/6612-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(6613,1,'2015-10-10 14:43:49','2015-10-10 19:43:49','<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>THE PREMIUM SERVICE</strong>\r\n<strong>from the</strong>\r\n<strong>WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU</strong>\r\n<strong>“The Home of Single Lot Trading”</strong></p>\r\n\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li><strong> THE VIEW FROM MY TRADE DESK:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nLOOKING BACKWARDS, FORWARDS &amp; SIDEWAYS (FOR GOOD MEASURE) AT THE FX MARKET:\r\n\r\n1.1: LOOKING BACKWARDS:\r\n\r\nLast week it was all about U.S. Non Farm Payrolls, this week the FOMC meeting minutes from the meeting on September 17<sup>th </sup>took its place.\r\n\r\nFrom my perspective, given that the NFP data came after the last FOMC meeting and following the meeting there was so much press coverage of why the FED kept rates on hold, I expected the minutes to be a damp squib. Basically, unless they were tampered with, nothing new would be seen. The minutes gave me nothing new and following the release of the minutes all the “FED speak” has been basically around who is up for a rate hike in 2015 and who is into 2016 and beyond.\r\n\r\nThe end result = limbo = uncertainty, which in turn equals twitchy bottoms behind the trade desks.\r\n\r\nFrom a Forex perspective, this uncertainty has produced a break in commodity pressure and the commodity currencies; AUD, NZD and CAD in particular have all strengthened as a result.\r\n\r\nHowever, do they not look a little over-stretched now?\r\n\r\nMy main article in section 2 of this blog makes a few observations on this point.\r\n\r\nWe also heard from the BOJ, who are keeping things on hold, but there is huge interest in selling JPY as the rumours about the BOJ adding further quantitative easing (QE) at the end of this month are gathering momentum.\r\n\r\nPersonally, I do not see that QE has ever worked. If it is meant to be just a currency manipulation tool, then it does work. However, the various central banks that have adopted QE believe it a policy weapon to boost and strengthen flagging economies amongst other things. It keeps stock market prices inflated by providing a backstop to institutions; if you know the FED will support the markets with cash you have nothing to lose. You may recall the cartoon of Ben Bernanke in a helicopter dropping wads of cash over Wall Street and Chicago, Bernanke then became known as “Helicopter Ben”.\r\n\r\nThe financial markets on Wall Street may have been supported by QE, but the consumer confidence of Main Street, well, it simply did NOT happen. Housing is still weaker than expected and the U.S. economy has NOT bounced. 7 years on and we are still waiting. I have serious doubts over the effectiveness of QE unless its single purpose (denied of course) is to bolster equities.\r\n\r\nThe poster boy of QE, the FED the biggest and best in the world should note that after 7 years of zero interest rates they are sh*t scared to raise interest rates from zero by 0.25%..... someone please give me a fecking break…. QE is not all it’s cracked up to be, and, simply put it just has NOT worked.\r\n\r\nI just don\'t get it. The sooner we have the media proclaimed “Rock God’s” who are the beloved central bank governors or presidents own up to the fact that we are in a currency war and admit that they haven’t got a clue on how to tackle DEFLATION the better. Maybe then, the markets will be able to move and react better, rather than give us this very false position of relationship pricing that we have at the moment.\r\n\r\nSo, will the BOJ add more QE at the end of the month?\r\n\r\nHere’s my suggestion, Mr. Kuroda and Mr. Abe, give your dosh to me as I can waste your money just as efficiently as you guys can!!\r\n\r\nI cannot pass up the opportunity to talk about the next presenter for a BBC TV programme called Jackanory (Google it).\r\n\r\nMark Carney, he’s off on one again. For the love of God, the UK is NOT going to raise rates ahead of the FED. In the name of sanity, who believes this guy? Every time he speaks at a major media event, he changes his tune and contradicts or denies what was previously said within a few days. I am not wasting more words on this man because it is just farcical.\r\n\r\nCarney (BOE) and Wheeler (RBNZ) would make a great comedy stage act in the West End Theatres (London). They could be memory men, each testing the other on what they just said. With a few drinks it could be entertaining, but I wouldn’t pay for it.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n1.2: LOOKING FORWARD:\r\n\r\nMAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:\r\n\r\n(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market other than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to <a href=\"http://www.forexfactory.com\">www.forexfactory.com</a> and <a href=\"http://www.tradingeconomics.com\">www.tradingeconomics.com</a> for a more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).\r\nSUNDAY: N/A.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: AUD – NAB Business Confidence.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: CNY – Trade balance and CPi.\r\nTUESDAY: GBP – CPi.\r\nTUESDAY: EUR – German ZEW Economic Sentiment.\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: GBP – Employment Data.\r\nWEDNESDAY: USD – Core Retail Sales and PPi.\r\nWEDNESDAY: AUD – Employment Data.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: USD – Core CPi.\r\nTHURSDAY: NZD – CPi.\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: CAD – Manufacturing Sales.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMY THOUGHTS ON THE NEWS ITEMS THIS COMING WEEK:\r\n\r\nTo be frank, not a lot really warms my belly.\r\n\r\nI am not short the AUD at the moment as I think there is a bit higher we can see with the AUD/USD. It feels strange not being short all the commodity currencies so I will follow the AUD news closely. In addition, the Chinese data will be interesting to follow.\r\n\r\nI am bored writing about this next point, so you readers could be fed up reading it. The Core CPi and Retail Sales from the U.S. will be used to give hints on the FED rate hike. Maybe we are at the point of another weeks worth of crappy data from the U.S., which will kill off any thoughts of a rate hike in 2015. I can guarantee you that Janet Yellen will be beating herself up for not raising in September, or earlier in the year. Dithering never pays off in anything, it only frustrates and annoys all around you. The uncertainty will just go on and on hanging over the U.S. economy which by all accounts looks to be heading towards a recession if we carry on seeing poor data after poor data releases.\r\n\r\nTime will tell.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMY KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS THIS WEEK FOR USD MAJORS<strong>:</strong>\r\n\r\nIn this section I have as usual kept my charts as minimalist as possible. All readers regardless of level of experience should be able to follow my thoughts from my comments to the levels on the charts with ease.\r\n\r\nEUR/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.1361\r\n\r\nWe are range bound albeit in quite a big range as shown on the chart below; 1.1088 to 1.1459.\r\n\r\nThe daily chart looks bullish although we are now about 100 pips away from the highs seen straight after the FOMC “rates on hold” meeting last month. This could be a great area to short from if you have the patience to wait.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURUSDDaily11102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6594\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURUSDDaily11102015.png\" alt=\"EURUSDDaily11102015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.5315\r\n\r\nCable has been flip-flopping around as usual. We saw a couple of days last week when we were at the precipice only to see the bounce and then just as the market gets “bulled up”, bam…. the cable reverses.\r\n\r\nNothing new the GBP/USD is the master of false moves.\r\n\r\nWe look to be heading lower with the longer-term trend once again. From my perspective a break below through 1.5280 and definitely below 1.5200 should place the bears back in the driving seat once again.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPUSDDaily11102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6595\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPUSDDaily11102015.png\" alt=\"GBPUSDDaily11102015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.7336\r\n\r\nI read this pair wrong recently. I did not expect Glenn Stevens (RBA Governor) to go “girlie” and suggest that the RBA was now neutral. Add to this the commodity rush to buy this pair, which has resulted in elevating its value towards 0.7380, the 127.6% Fibonacci level. Looks like a great short to me at this level. Be patient and wait.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AUDUSDDailyBOOM-CHART11092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6596\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AUDUSDDailyBOOM-CHART11092015.png\" alt=\"AUDUSDDailyBOOM CHART11092015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.6694\r\n\r\nI remember when I used to repeatedly call out to my parents from the back of the car when we were going somewhere exciting…. “Are we there yet?”\r\n\r\nWe could be, this is the area maybe to test a short. Remember the RBNZ is hawkish. At least that was the impression I got last time from “Wheeler the dealer” and his side kick English at the RBNZ.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/NZDUSDWeeklyBOOM-CHART-11102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6597\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/NZDUSDWeeklyBOOM-CHART-11102015.png\" alt=\"NZDUSDWeeklyBOOM CHART 11102015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.2945\r\n\r\nI took a massive hit with this pair last week. We move on…. upwards to infinity and beyond. Well not quite… all I wanted last week was 1.3350.\r\n\r\nI see a BOC rate cut on the horizon after the election. The jobs data was surprisingly good last week. But alas…a huge word of warning, the job numbers came from the country that provided inaccurate jobs data for the best part of 2014. So it’s not just the Chinese data that you should question.\r\n\r\nI live in Quebec, the poor part of Canada, it is geographically huge (like most parts of Canada) and it has a huge population percentage of the Canadian total. It is dogged with huge problems all self-inflicted with complete and utter bloody mindedness and stubbornness at the heart/root of the issues that have plagued the province for decades. Quebec is failing, it lacks investment; jobs are disappearing because of its deep-rooted issues. Companies just give up and move out. The tension over language dominates everything and no one gives a rat’s hairy ar** that Quebec is imploding. It is language that is perceived to be important. Not jobs, health, education and infrastructure…. just language. The downward spiral in Quebec has been gathering a pace for years; it personifies uncertainty in every aspect and definition of the word.\r\n\r\nOn top of the Quebec issues, we have crashing oil prices and the job cut backs in Alberta and the service industries that support the Canadian oil industry from Ontario and British Columbia. In addition, the exchange rate difficulties that lower oil prices have on the USD/CAD relationship with Canada’s neighbour the USA, flags… Houston we have a problem.\r\n\r\nConsumer confidence numbers in Quebec have never been good but add in a few more provinces with issues and it’s not a pretty picture. Canada could mask the stupidity of Quebec, but not when more pieces of the jigsaw come apart.\r\n\r\nIf the oil price falls below $40.00 as I think it will, and we have a rate cut, which I think is a case of when and NOT if, we could have the USD/CAD at 1.5000-1.6000.\r\n\r\nWe are still in a bullish trend despite the recent sell-off. There are buying opportunities in my opinion.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCADWeekly11102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6598\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCADWeekly11102015.png\" alt=\"USDCADWeekly11102015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF - Weekly Closing Price: 0.9613\r\n\r\nI am STILL long this pair.\r\n\r\nI do expect it to breakout higher. I see 0.9550 as a big test should we drop to this level. I am prepared for it but do not like it. It is like an impending visit to the dentist hanging over me.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCHFDaily11102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6599\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCHFDaily11102015.png\" alt=\"USDCHFDaily11102015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY - Weekly Closing Price: 120.20\r\n\r\nThis pair is being speculated upon at the moment. Large-scale investors looking for a quick few dollars are banking on the BOJ adding more quantitative easing (QE) at the end of this month. I have already made my views known on the effectiveness of QE. That does not mean that I am correct. It is just my opinion. This pair could be one of those Forex great trades of “Buy the rumour sell the news”. 122.00 will be a key obstacle level of resistance to break, if the buying frenzy intensifies as we approach the end of the month.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDJPYDaily11102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6600\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDJPYDaily11102015.png\" alt=\"USDJPYDaily11102015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n1.3: LOOKING SIDEWAYS (FOR GOOD MEASURE):\r\n\r\nThis week I want to focus a little on liquidity and how the volumes in the Forex market are changing and how this affects us as traders.\r\n\r\nThe reason that I want to talk about this is that I noticed a huge change after the summer this year. In writing about this, I realize that the FOMC meeting that took place on September 17<sup>th</sup> may have been a deciding factor in low liquidity lasting longer than usual, with institutional and senior bank market makers staying out and away from trading activity for longer.\r\n\r\nVolumes are down and liquidity is thinner. This means we have to be a bit more savvy. What do I mean?\r\n\r\nThis is not just about the hours to trade there is a knock-on effect for currency pairs to trade as well in my opinion.\r\n\r\nThe Forex trading hours are 24 hours a day 5 days a week. Within these hours there are peak trading times with good volumes of cash flowing in and out of the market and then there are thin trading times when liquidity and cash in and out is poor by comparison to the better volume hours.\r\n\r\nBasically I see it as follows: -\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/FX-TRADING-TIMES-11102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6593\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/FX-TRADING-TIMES-11102015.png\" alt=\"FX TRADING TIMES 11102015\" width=\"820\" height=\"351\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe major financial centre times for trading are marked in RED by the hours that they are open.\r\n\r\nBeneath this, I have what I call the previous best times to trade shown in BLUE.\r\n\r\nAt the foot of the table is what I am calling the best times to trade Forex shown in GREEN.\r\n\r\nMy revisions are based on times when there are what I call good two-way flows.\r\n\r\nJust like trading the EUR/USD you know that it always has great liquidity and two-way action. The markets are the same.\r\n\r\nThe Forex market has changed and liquidity flowing through into the markets is stronger when markets open up to start trading and again when two markets are open together.\r\n\r\nOverall, Forex market trading volumes are lower, less cash is being placed into Forex therefore it stands to reason that all the markets will suffer. The worst markets for liquidity are those open in Asian trading, these are now more likely to have wilder swing moves and we have seen some rather strange breakout moves only to be swatted back into line when London opens and liquidity improves.\r\n\r\nBoth London and New York are victims of lower liquidity, they are not exempt, but the fact is they are the powerhouses of the Forex Market and whilst lower volumes may be placed through these markets, volumes are still acceptable as they were in 2014, as far as I am concerned.\r\n\r\nWithout doubt, the European / North American session when running together offers the best trading conditions.\r\n\r\nWith regards to currencies, the exotic currencies, which see lower volumes in any case, will be more of a minefield if the overall market is starved of liquidity.\r\n\r\nTherefore looking specifically at the Asian session, which in my opinion is the most troublesome. Trading the USD majors will always offer better liquidity along with the EUR/JPY, EUR/GBP.\r\n\r\nTrading JPY pairs can be scary as well, but they tend to be driven by the USD/JPY so as long as you watch this pair you can be guided and it stands to reason that in Asian sessions the JPY pairs should have acceptable volumes. Only the CAD/JPY and CHF/JPY struggle a bit at times.\r\n\r\nTrading exotics (EUR/NZD, EUR/CAD, GBP/NZD, GBP/CAD, EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD) can be difficult at the best of times due to the volatility, which even in a good strong market is awkward. In thinner trading sessions you can lose a lot of money very quickly if you are not careful with these.\r\n\r\nEmerging market currencies in the Asian session, well I wouldn’t go there.\r\n\r\nBasically, as long as you make a note to self that the Asian markets are going to be slow with volatile moments as countries come on line and liquidity improves for a few minutes, you will be fine.\r\n\r\nI just think that as traders we have to be aware of everything possible that can scupper a great trade.\r\n\r\nThe solutions to the Asian markets: -\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li>Don’t trade them.</li>\r\n	<li>Smaller positions with wider stops.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n	<li><strong> WHAT’S ON MY MIND:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>IS NOW THE TIME TO SELL THE</strong>\r\n<strong>COMMODITY CURRENCIES?</strong></p>\r\nWhen the FOMC left interest rates unchanged on September 17th it was a game changer for commodities and commodity currencies. It took a couple of days for the dust to settle and a few more days for the commodity currencies to react but the chain of events, “the domino effect” took hold.\r\n\r\nA lot of what has happened since is confusing at times, is the dog wagging its tail, or, is it the tail that is wagging the dog?\r\n\r\nOil, is the classic example of this. Despite the “rig count” reducing and inventories moving around a little, we are still in a pump it, pump it, pump it environment, or as it was once said “drill baby drill”. I know oil is a highly speculative hedging commodity and as I call them “the high-rollers” love to speculate on oil. My God, there is a vast range of speculators trying to nail down a futures price and buy forward. The oil market is from my perspective a real game of “chance”.\r\n\r\nIn addition, the media and markets look to OPEC for guidance regarding oil output etc. However, there lies another problem as OPEC does NOT represent all the oil producers in the world and as the body to represent oil producers it\'s about as useful as a chocolate teapot. Russia, the UK, Norway, USA, Canada and Mexico are not in OPEC. Yet these are all significant oil producers and/or exporters.\r\n\r\nBasically for over a year now oil has had a supply and demand problem. There is too much oil in the market and not enough people wanting to buy it. Thus, the price moves lower, as producers seek buyers. Oil is priced in USD.\r\n\r\nHaving just written that, the desire for these speculators to find a bottom in the oil market is huge. Probably given the cash at stake, bigger than any other open market.\r\n\r\nAs soon as the FED announced a hold on an interest rate increase, it reminded me of the equivalent of a Saturn V rocket lift off, like we used to see out of Cape Kennedy<strong>.</strong> It was slow to lift off, but as the dust settled the speed intensified and the chain reaction took hold after a few days of waiting and wondering.\r\n\r\nA huge sigh of relief came through the markets after the dust settled, the “fat cats” could squeeze a bit more, and as a bonus the USD related commodities received a boost even though fundamentally nothing had changed.\r\n\r\nThe FOMC held rates, the USD weakened and everything related to the USD also weakened such as Oil, Gold and Copper.\r\n\r\nThe domino effect takes hold and the commodity currencies that were previously in the crapper also rally, even though nothing has fundamentally changed. The USD bolted and left the stable…\r\n\r\nWe still have the same problems, it’s as if a pressure cooker that has been building up pressure for a few hours is suddenly allowed to let off steam, that is what I think has happened. The USD was wound up so tight ahead of the September 17<sup>th</sup> meeting that many positions were taken off the table in the Forex market ahead of the meeting and as a result liquidity was much lower. It was noted that institutional traders squared off prior to vacations in August and decided to wait until after the FOMC before re-entering the market.\r\n\r\nBoom…. there you go. You could almost hear the sound after the FOMC statement was released, digested and pondered about for a couple of days. What now?\r\n\r\nThe commodity currencies strengthened like crazy over the past two weeks and now they look over-stretched, over-done and tired.\r\n\r\nThere are opportunities on the horizon.\r\n\r\nRemember nothing has fundamentally changed…\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>Oil is in over supply.</li>\r\n	<li>Gold is priced too high, there is zero inflation, so in my opinion no need to own a non-producing bit of yellow metal.</li>\r\n	<li>The RBNZ, ECB, BOJ remain accommodative.</li>\r\n	<li>The RBA is now neutral, but for how long, its not all about the Sydney housing market.</li>\r\n	<li>The BOE according to Carney will raise rates ahead of the U.S. if deemed ready.</li>\r\n	<li>The SNB are ready to intervene to weaken the CHF.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nWe have Forex opportunities, we are able to trade at levels that offer great risk / reward trades.\r\n\r\nI just want to pick out the USD majors to highlight. Look at the charts of the AUD/USD and NZD/USD over the last two weeks or so (below), and, look at the extremes we are reaching. I am ignoring the cross rates in this article, but the moves in GBP/USD and in particular GBP/NZD have been spectacular, the GBP/NZD, in particular has received a Tony Soprano whacking.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AUDUSDDailyBOOM-CHART11092015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6596\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AUDUSDDailyBOOM-CHART11092015.png\" alt=\"AUDUSDDailyBOOM CHART11092015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/NZDUSDWeeklyBOOM-CHART-11102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6597\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/NZDUSDWeeklyBOOM-CHART-11102015.png\" alt=\"NZDUSDWeeklyBOOM CHART 11102015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMy subscribers through my fee based Premium Service option will benefit, hopefully, from my thoughts of what to get into and when to enter.\r\n\r\nI am not saying that there is a commodity currency sale on now right in front of us, but the AUD/USD and NZD/USD are in areas of great interest to short from and the USD/CAD in my opinion will soon be a great long trade again.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:\r\n</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n3.1: SUMMARY OF YEAR TO DATE PERFORMANCE - 2015:\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">PREMIUM SERVICE – COST INCOME ANALYSIS (USD):</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">PROFITS FROM TRADE SET-UPS – to October 4th 2015.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">MICRO LOT TRADER - 536 trades cost to trade = $53.60\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 536 trades = <strong>$864.60</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">MINI LOT TRADER - 536 trades cost to trade = $536.00\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 536 trades = <strong>$8,646.00</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">STANDARD LOT TRADER - 536 trades cost to trade = $5,360.00\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 536 trades = <strong>$86,460.00</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"></p>\r\n3.2: PREMIUM SERVICE – TRADE SUMMARIES MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/PREM-SERV-PROFITS1-11102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6583\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/PREM-SERV-PROFITS1-11102015.png\" alt=\"PREM SERV PROFITS1 11102015\" width=\"513\" height=\"414\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/PREM-SERV-PROFITS2-11102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6584\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/PREM-SERV-PROFITS2-11102015.png\" alt=\"PREM SERV PROFITS2 11102015\" width=\"524\" height=\"415\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNOTES:\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>If the above return from Forex Trading interests you go to my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> and check out the subscription options and special promotions under the tabs “PREMIUM SERVICE” and “PROMOTIONS”</li>\r\n	<li>The performance above is based off single-lot trade sizes.</li>\r\n	<li>THE PREMIUM SERVICE has subscribers with broker accounts of sizes ranging from $2,500 to over $100,000. A profitable trade is a profitable trade. It is all about trading according to the size of your broker account (EFFECTIVE POSITION SIZING) and applying RISK MANAGEMENT principles at all times.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) SUBSCRIBER CONTENT:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n(The following section is additional data, thoughts, and ideas exclusively for PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) subscribers)\r\n\r\n4.1: THE PREMIUM SERVICE – TRADING REVIEW:\r\n\r\n4.2: MAJOR TRADING PAIRS WITH LONGER-TERM MATCHING TRENDS:\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.3: THE PREMIUM SERVICE - LIVE TRADES ARE:\r\n\r\n4.4: THE PREMIUM SERVICE – LIMIT ORDER TRADES ARE\r\n\r\n4.5: POTENTIAL TRADES - WHAT PAIRS / CHARTS AM I LOOKING AT?\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n	<li><strong> MY FINAL THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nOVERVIEW OF TRADING TIPS &amp; THOUGHTS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD:\r\n\r\nAnother week another chop fest!\r\n\r\nI see absolutely no reason at all why the market drivers should change this coming week.\r\n\r\nThe economic data dump has some interesting points with China and Australia to factor in but in real terms FED speculation and the price of oil will dominate once again in my opinion.\r\n\r\nIt is a chop fest, but there are some opportunities dotted about. In my opinion, the commodity currencies offer us these opportunities. If you have the stomach for it look at the commodity cross rates as well but be careful. They are so reactionary, being caught the wrong side in such a twitchy market can be a cruel experience.\r\n\r\nTrade smaller and wider to keep those hopes and dreams alive!\r\n\r\nWhilst we may not all have bodies as flexible as gymnasts our trading minds have to be just as flexible to achieve longevity.\r\n\r\nTake care.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nhttps://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/\r\nBLOG REF #172\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u> </u></strong>','IS NOW THE TIME TO SELL THE  COMMODITY CURRENCIES?','','inherit','closed','closed','','6612-revision-v1','','','2015-10-10 14:43:49','2015-10-10 19:43:49','',6612,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/6612-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),(6635,1,'2015-10-18 07:56:53','2015-10-18 12:56:53','<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>THE PREMIUM SERVICE</strong>\r\n<strong>from the</strong>\r\n<strong>WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU</strong>\r\n<strong>“The Home of Single Lot Trading”</strong></p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li><strong> THE VIEW FROM MY TRADE DESK:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nLOOKING BACKWARDS, FORWARDS &amp; SIDEWAYS (FOR GOOD MEASURE) AT THE FX MARKET:\r\n\r\n1.1: LOOKING BACKWARDS:\r\n\r\nThe title of last week\'s overall blog was: -\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">IS NOW THE TIME TO SELL THE\r\nCOMMODITY CURRENCIES?</p>\r\nLooking back I think that I was a week too soon with this trade idea. I say this because last week, I took a beating from the market, and to be frank, I should have known better, however, I dug my heels in like a spoilt child.\r\n\r\nThis month so far I have taken four bigger than usual pip losses on trades. I made a basic and elementary mistake. I thought I could dictate the market, I believed I knew which way the market was going and that it would turn in my favour. I was given a beating, and quite right too, as I should have known better.\r\n\r\nI have spent a good few hours beating myself up. The trades themselves were roughly in line with an extended RISK TOLERANCE that I adopt during periods of extreme market activity from time to time, however I hold up my arms in surrender.\r\n\r\nNow it is time to draw a line underneath everything and move forward.\r\n\r\nSince the poor NFP statistics were released, the continued layers of poor USD data frankly just exacerbated what was already a poor and difficult trading environment that I was stuck in.\r\n\r\nLast week’s poor retail sales and PPi from the U.S. were like nails in the coffin of hope that the FED will raise rates this year. Then the following day the CPi data was roughly in-line. The weekly unemployment claims are holding on average just below 170,000. This must be viewed as positive.\r\n\r\nI am still struggling to see how the CPI data was in line?\r\n\r\nThe revisions to the U.S. data can be brutal and, it makes it really difficult to formulate anything other than a 15-minute plan at times. How can it be that the U.S. with all its resources cannot deliver accurate data? It is not that far away from the Chinese data in the way it should be interpreted. The revisions are just crazy sometimes especially with the jobs data.\r\n\r\nIt certainly is both an interesting and difficult time to be trading. As I say to my friends when they ask me about trading and I give them an overview, I end with….”Welcome to my daily fecking nightmare”… that would have made a great title for an Alice Cooper album, back in the day.\r\n\r\nApart from the U.S. data highlights nothing else really springs to mind from last week from the economic data release standpoint that warrants any further comment.\r\n\r\nThat is of course, apart from this fecking merry-go-round, circus ride, helter bloody helter-skelter uncertainty induced shambles that Yellen and the rest of the FOMC are responsible for surrounding the 0.25% potential damn rate hike.\r\n\r\nI mean come on for God’s sake.\r\n\r\nI am the first in line criticizing the ECB for its shambolic handling of the media in run ups to press conferences and when after the official release, the opinions of the ECB members are delivered to the media in 15 second sound-bytes and are in conflict with what Mario Draghi has said. In fairness he (Draghi) seems to have kicked a few of these repeat offenders within the ECB in the nuts, and with aching samosas being the result of saying the wrong thing, the other ECB committee members now shut the f**k up.\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, the FOMC is worse than the ECB ever was. You will have no idea how hard it was to write this, unless you are a regular reader. What comes out of the regional FED presidents is complete and utter bollo**s, it counts for nothing.\r\n\r\nLook…the committee makes a decision. It releases a statement. These hangers on (Regional FED presidents), crave their moment of fame on TV being chatted up by one of the “hotties” on CNBC or BLOOMBERG. Their opinions count for nothing because when they vote around the table Janet Yellen’s word is final. If these FED presidents want to be outspoken and have different opinions to the FOMC minutes, they should grow a pair and rebel so that it is recorded in the minutes or better still let Janet Yellen “out them” in a press conference. At least then we would have consistency instead of the present, wishy-washy, namby-pamby headline driven quotes that disappear soon after they are given when we realize the quote means nothing and the deliverer of the quote is never challenged about it. They simply just crawl back under the rock they emanated from and hide.\r\n\r\nI know it’s a game. They have zero responsibility as the buck stops with Janet Yellen. In my opinion, she needs to strike hard, this will give those TV-happy FED presidents something to think about and maybe bring matters in line. If she did this half of the uncertainty in this news driven marketplace would be removed allowing for greater stability.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n1.2: LOOKING FORWARD:\r\n\r\nMAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:\r\n\r\n(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market other than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to <a href=\"http://www.forexfactory.com\">www.forexfactory.com</a> and <a href=\"http://www.tradingeconomics.com\">www.tradingeconomics.com</a> for a more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).\r\n\r\nSUNDAY: CNY – GDP and Industrial Production.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: AUD – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: GBP – Words of wisdom? from Mark Carney (BOE).\r\nTUESDAY: NZD – Dairy Prices.\r\nTUESDAY: USD – Words of wisdom from Janet Yellen (FED).\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: CAD – BOC Rate Statement and Monetary Policy.\r\nWEDNESDAY: CAD – Stephen Poloz (BOC) Press Conference.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: GBP – Retail Sales.\r\nTHURSDAY: CAD – Core Retail Sales.\r\nTHURSDAY: EUR – Interest Rate decision.\r\nTHURSDAY: EUR – Words of wisdom from Mario Draghi (ECB).\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: EUR – French &amp; German Flash Manufacturing PMi.\r\nFRIDAY: CAD – Core CPi.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMY THOUGHTS ON THE NEWS ITEMS THIS COMING WEEK:\r\n\r\nThe biggie this week for me living in Canada is the BOC announcement and press conference by Stephen Poloz on Wednesday, just two days after the Federal Election. Whilst I am expecting Poloz to cut rates, I doubt whether he will do so as this meeting is close to the election. If incumbent Stephen Harper retains overall control, maybe. If we have new minority government as expected I think any cut will be delayed by the BOC, to allow them to see policies to be driven through by the collation.\r\n\r\nWaiting to cut could be a real “own goal” for the BOC, so it should be interesting given that any further stimulus delay could make matters much worse. The situation south of the Canadian border does NOT help matters either.\r\n\r\nIn addition to the BOC, the items coming up this week that are high on my radar are speeches from Mark Carney (BOE) and Janet Yellen (FED) on Tuesday and obviously Mario Draghi’s (ECB) press conference due this Thursday.\r\n\r\nI think that I have said this before; “when these people cough and the markets react”. We are in very uncertain times, mostly created by the central bankers and governors. We “the people” do not elect these people yet they have more powers than Prime Ministers and Presidents to move the financial markets.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMY KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS THIS WEEK FOR USD MAJORS<strong>:\r\n</strong>In this section I have as usual kept my charts as minimalist as possible. All readers regardless of level of experience should be able to follow my thoughts from my comments to the levels on the charts with ease.\r\n\r\nEUR/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.1348\r\n\r\nWe are still range bound albeit in quite a big range. From last weeks close we are only 13 pips lower in price.\r\n\r\nThe range in my opinion is now basically from 1.1100 to 1.1500 as shown on the chart below.\r\n\r\nAs I will write later, I believe the resistance at 1.1500 could represent a top with this pair given the ECB meeting this week and the fact that the issues / problems in the Eurozone are far from over, a slip lower would in my opinion definitely not be out of the question.\r\n\r\nShould Draghi drop a bomb on the market a test of 1.1000 is the line in the sand as far as I am concerned that says yes or no to a test of parity.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURUSDDaily18102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6627\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURUSDDaily18102015.png\" alt=\"EURUSDDaily18102015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.5440\r\n\r\nWe have trend line resistance at 1.5508 and a little horizontal resistance as well from August this year. Cable has been flip-flopping around as usual, although I am wondering (maybe rather foolishly) have we seen a short-term top. Every time I send out an alert or chart to my subscribers for the GBP/USD I feel like having a bottle of Jack Daniels on the side of my desk… ice at the ready.\r\n\r\nI suppose trying to be consistent across all the major pairs, the cable has to some extent under-performed the others. My buddy Mark Carney is due to give the world further words of wisdom this week, which will no doubt get an instant reaction and cause me probably to wonder once again what the hell is this guy smoking!\r\n\r\nThe GBP/USD is the master of false moves and Carney is the master of leading the market the wrong way\r\n\r\nI am bearish the pair, but I would not get too sexed up with a short trade until we have cracked 1.5300, having said that, there are both long and short trade opportunities with this pair.\r\n\r\nWith the cable you have to be careful. If we have three or four days of chop it will be a bull flag pattern that we are creating and instead of a reversal just a continuation move.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPUSDDaily18102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6628\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPUSDDaily18102015.png\" alt=\"GBPUSDDaily18102015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.7267\r\n\r\nI never feel 100% comfortable being long this pair. Right now, I see a range of 0.7200 to 0.7380.\r\n\r\nRecent economic data from Australia has been poor and rather inconsistent. I feel that the RBA will go HAWKISH; I know they claim the Swiss approach of neutrality at the moment but frankly this just cannot last. My reasons for the thoughts are simple; Japan and Commodity Prices.\r\n\r\nMy bias is to the short side and I know that it is always dangerous to pick a top but the 0.7380 – 0.7400 level offered good pricing back in August this year.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AUDUSDDaily18102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6626\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AUDUSDDaily18102015.png\" alt=\"AUDUSDDaily18102015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.6806\r\n\r\nThis pair gives me very similar thoughts to those relating to the AUD/USD. I will believe that the bears are in control 100% when we break below 0.6620. Right now, I think we have topped. But looking at smaller charts it could be a bull flag.\r\n\r\nWhat is making me think it’s a top?\r\n\r\nVery simple it’s RBNZ monetary policy. They do not want the value of the NZD/USD in their faces at 0.7000; they are more in favour of 0.6000 or probably even less.\r\n\r\nLooking at the chart below, it does look rather bullish and we could be flagging but I hope not.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/NZDUSDDaily18102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6629\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/NZDUSDDaily18102015.png\" alt=\"NZDUSDDaily18102015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.2921\r\n\r\nThis pair has basically consolidated its drop of 650 pips from its 1.3455 highs in the past week. There was only a difference of about 20 pips in the closing prices this week versus last week.\r\n\r\nI am hoping for a further move lower to 1.2750. This pair is part of my TRADE PLAN and my goal is to be long. I try not to chase so I will be looking for a pullback this week to enter long… 200 pips of a pullback would be just great!\r\n\r\nOnly when we are back above the 38% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.3070 will I start to believe that the bulls are firmly back in control once again.\r\n\r\nI see 1.2830 to 1.3000 controlling prices over the near- term. Remember, the BOC meets this week for a rate announcement and there is a Canadian Federal election on Monday 19<sup>th</sup> October, it could be volatile.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCADDaily18102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6630\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCADDaily18102015.png\" alt=\"USDCADDaily18102015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF - Weekly Closing Price: 0.9537\r\n\r\nI am STILL long this pair.\r\n\r\nI do expect it to breakout higher. I see 0.9550 as a big resistance test and should we break through this level with conviction; we should start to accelerate higher.\r\n\r\nKey support lies at 0.9475.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCHFDaily18102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6631\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCHFDaily18102015.png\" alt=\"USDCHFDaily18102015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY - Weekly Closing Price: 119.44\r\n\r\nThis pair is being speculated upon at the moment in the sense that the BOJ is rumoured to be considering more QE. Well if they are considering QE, a lot of money is being burned.\r\n\r\nI think we are starting to flag on lower minute charts with this pair ahead of the expected announcement at the end of this month.\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, it is gambling to get long now, much the same as people did earlier this year on the EUR/CHF floor being supported at 1.2000 by the SNB. I am not expecting the same reaction in the markets should the BOJ not ease further but expectations and GREED are high.\r\n\r\nI think a break above 121.00 will be crucial for the bulls and the bears are looking below 118.00.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDJPYDaily18102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6632\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDJPYDaily18102015.png\" alt=\"USDJPYDaily18102015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n1.3: LOOKING SIDEWAYS (FOR GOOD MEASURE):\r\n\r\nRegular readers will know that for sometime I have been promising a new look to the format of the blog.\r\n\r\nA small working party of subscribers from my fee-based subscriber group (The Premium Service), have been working with me on options and alternatives moving forward.\r\n\r\nThe changes highlighted have been delayed for two reasons: -\r\n\r\nFirstly, the group leader has been away on business for two months, which we knew about in advance of the updates being implemented, but we had hoped for the changes to be in position ahead of the blog resumption in September and prior to his departure. Sadly we missed the deadline set and as Janet Yellen and Mario Draghi say the existing blog is transitory.\r\n\r\nSecondly, I was looking at the option of hosting the paid subscribers away from the same site as this blog and this created more discussion than I thought, which is still on-going and I am far from clear what route is going to be adopted.\r\n\r\nI am now therefore looking at a timeframe of January 2016 after the Christmas / end of year holiday.\r\n\r\nWe are in a chop fest of a market and basically I see no change on the horizon. I think that the FOMC has really created this period of uncertainty in the markets and every time extremes in pricing are approached we see a huge increase in volatility and a pullback resulting in more volatility as bulls and bears fight for control.\r\n\r\nI suppose I should not complain too much, at least we now have a two-sided market. For what seems like years we have been operating in a bull market environment only.\r\n\r\nTherefore, as a result we just have be more aware of what the other markets are doing and the interactions to the Forex market. Correlations do matter and they do count towards the consideration to trade. I am not a believer of analysis paralysis but the more we take into consideration the better when placing a trade.\r\n\r\nIn these choppy markets sometimes bear in mind you best trade may be the one that you decided against taking; food for thought.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n	<li><strong> WHAT’S ON MY MIND:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>HAVE WE SEEN THE TOP IN THE EUR/USD?</strong></p>\r\n<strong> </strong>Let me answer my question:\r\n\r\nHave we seen the top in the EUR/USD?\r\n\r\nI believe we have…. YES.\r\n\r\nWhy do I say this?\r\n\r\nVery briefly, the Eurozone has been somewhat of a back seat driver for a while now with the GREECE ELECTIONS passing by with a mere whimper and poor economic data out of the Eurozone being rather throw away as not that important. For months now it seems that the Eurozone has been playing second fiddle to the FED.\r\n\r\nBasically, after the FOMC kept rates on hold, it was as if a huge sigh of relief was heard from Wall Street. The ensuing economic data from the U.S. has been practically 80% of the time poor. It would not surprise me at all if the next intervention by the FED were to re-introduce another form of Quantitative Easing (QE). After 7 years of zero interest rates, the biggest consumer driven society in the world has failed to even get a 0.25% rate hike through. Policy has failed and the only policy known by central bankers is QE.\r\n\r\nWe have DEFLATION practically all over the western world. There is no known cure for this except that a country has to grow and there is no confidence, with commodity prices on the floor, sales all over poor, production output is poor, and purchases of raw materials weak.\r\n\r\nThe combination of these factors has us bordering on RECESSION and DEFLATION.\r\n\r\nBack to the Eurozone; Merkel wanted austerity rather than QE. The Germans fuc**d up Europe single-handedly once again, so much pain and for what?\r\n\r\nAfter 6 years of a failing austerity program, they then introduce Quantitative Easing, which hasn\'t had the desired effect either.\r\n\r\nAfter the FOMC minutes were released relating the “HOLD ON RATES MEETING” the EUR/USD made its way to 1.1500 and then failed.\r\n\r\nI believe that a number of factors caused a sanity pill to be swallowed and then the EUR/USD has started to drift lower. I am personally hoping for a re-test of just above 1.1414 then a complete failure to lower levels once again. Basically, we had a short covering rally and now I believe common sense will prevail – Good Lord, did I just write common sense when talking about the Forex market?\r\n\r\nLast week one of the ECB members who you can always rely on to speak when he shouldn’t, Ewald Nowotny (Austrian Central Bank President), said that low inflation (DEFLATION to you and me) and low growth are worrying. He said something along the lines of “it’s obvious that additional financial instruments are necessary” (More QE to you and me…. at least).\r\n\r\nI think that his comments, were probably too late for something to be introduced this week. I just cannot see that something would have been worked out in secret without a leak from within the ECB. But I do think his comments would have resonated with many in the Eurozone.\r\n\r\nHere are a few numbers / statistics in no order of importance that political leaders in the Eurozone should be disgusted with as their policies after 7 years have failed miserably and there is NO light at the end of the tunnel. (By the way the U.S. is NOT much better): -\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>EURO AREA - GROWTH RATE (GDP)                            0.40%</li>\r\n	<li>EURO AREA – INFLATION                                                -0.10% (DEFLATION)</li>\r\n	<li>EURO AREA – YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT RATE          22.3%</li>\r\n	<li>EURO AREA - CONSUMER CONFIDENCE                   -7.1</li>\r\n	<li>EURO AREA – BUSINESS CONFIDENCE                     0.34%</li>\r\n	<li>EURO AREA - RETAIL SALES (Monthly)                         0%</li>\r\n	<li>EURO AREA - RETAIL SALES (Annualized)                   2.3%</li>\r\n	<li>EURO AREA – MANUFACTURING PMi                           52</li>\r\n	<li>EURO AREA – SERVICES PMi                                         53.7</li>\r\n	<li>EURO AREA – INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION                 0.9%</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAt least the PMi’s are above 50 apart but from that it is dour reading. To say that economically the Eurozone is bouncing along the bottom is generous. There is no real improvement at all.\r\n\r\nIt is any wonder that Nowotny spoke what was on his mind?\r\n\r\nOn top of all this we have to add in the VOLKSWAGEN effect, which is not factored at all in these numbers.\r\n\r\nA German car manufacturer found “cooking the books” lying for over a decade, the ramifications are massive, and they will be extremely costly. Not just to the VW Group but probably to Germany as well.\r\n\r\nThe Germans were extremely reluctant to cut any slack to GREECE, they will be looking to their European partners to dig into their pockets when it comes to the matter of reducing the VW effect on the Eurozone.\r\n\r\nSo as traders I think YES, we have seen the shorter-term top in the EUR/USD. I am expecting an orderly move lower. Draghi’s press conference will be interesting this Thursday. The last couple have passed by very uneventful, but this time I expect a few fireworks.\r\n\r\nI believe he will outline, if not announce, the extension of the QE program beyond 2016.\r\n\r\nHe will make a few comments about some/ many economic factors being transitory (How fecking long is a transitory period - over a year?). That\'s how long low inflation (DEFLATION to you and me) has been following Draghi around like a doting little puppy.\r\n\r\nHe will refer to instruments with three letter abbreviations (TLA) that he has up his sleeve and ready to use, and basically state that he is ready and armed to assist with all programs that are inside his operational mandate.\r\n\r\nQuestions will be focused on timings and which additional programs are appropriate or worthy of consideration.\r\n\r\nI do feel this meeting will raise the profile of the Eurozone problems once again and this will place a lid on 1.1500.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:\r\n</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">3.1: SUMMARY OF YEAR TO DATE PERFORMANCE - 2015:</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>PREMIUM SERVICE – COST INCOME ANALYSIS (USD):</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">PROFITS FROM TRADE SET-UPS – to October 18th 2015.\r\n(The profit levels below are based on single lot trades only)</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">MICRO LOT TRADER - 545 trades cost to trade = $54.50\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 545 trades = <strong>$847.30</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">MINI LOT TRADER - 545 trades cost to trade = $545.00\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 545 trades = <strong>$8.473.00</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">STANDARD LOT TRADER - 545 trades cost to trade = $5,450.00\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 545 trades = <strong>$84,730.00</strong></p>\r\n3.2: PREMIUM SERVICE – TRADE SUMMARIES MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/PREM-SERV-PROFITS1-18102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6616\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/PREM-SERV-PROFITS1-18102015.png\" alt=\"PREM SERV PROFITS1 18102015\" width=\"519\" height=\"416\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/PREM-SERV-PROFITS2-18102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6617\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/PREM-SERV-PROFITS2-18102015.png\" alt=\"PREM SERV PROFITS2 18102015\" width=\"516\" height=\"422\" /></a>\r\n\r\nNOTES:\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>If the above return from Forex Trading interests you go to my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> and check out the subscription options and special promotions under the tabs “PREMIUM SERVICE” and “PROMOTIONS”</li>\r\n	<li>If you want more data about the performance and my website does not answer your questions. Contact me direct and I will supply the data you require.</li>\r\n	<li>THE PREMIUM SERVICE has subscribers with broker accounts of sizes ranging from $2,500 to over $100,000. A profitable trade is a profitable trade. It is all about trading according to the size of your broker account (EFFECTIVE POSITION SIZING) and applying RISK MANAGEMENT principles at all times.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) SUBSCRIBER CONTENT:\r\n</strong>(The following section is additional data, thoughts, and ideas exclusively for PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) subscribers)</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n4.1: THE PREMIUM SERVICE – TRADING REVIEW:\r\n\r\nIt has been a difficult month for me so far. Every time I think I am turning a corner I get smacked back.\r\n\r\nIt’s all about how you react after receiving a few body blows. I have taken almost 1,000 pips in losses. This is so unusual for me. I know that I let 500 of these go by deciding to manage risk exposure tighter and 200 of these pips (CHF/JPY) was the right thing to do. I still found this hard to swallow.\r\n\r\nI have a lot live trades and several limit orders are in position. As you will see later, I am not really looking at many other charts right now. If I were to have all limit orders live as well, I would be managing 15 trades or so. That’s more than enough for me to manage in any session.\r\n\r\nMy concentration now, is looking at the USD. We may have bottomed, although the JPY is strengthening when the S&amp;P is rising. Always a major concern to consider as this correlation is important to me. This could weaken the USD and then I am back at square one.\r\n\r\nThe rumours of more BOJ easing at the end of the month are not having the desired effect at the moment as many people do not think that the BOJ will throw more money at the markets. I am not so sure; I would say that Abe and Kuroda, both have twitching bottoms at the moment given the USD/JPY strength and they will be under threat for their positions if the JPY strength grows. This may force them to act, maybe not for the correct reasons. They are in the political area, its what these people do, and they are not held accountable for their actions in the real sense of the word.\r\n\r\nFrom a trading perspective, I am trying to keep trades alive (USD/CHF and EUR/CHF), as these are key components of my TRADING PLAN through to the middle of next year.\r\n\r\nI have added NZD trades and I am looking to add more as time passes.\r\n\r\nI mentioned last week the chicken and egg scenario, I believe that I am still in the same place\r\n\r\nI know I write the word patience a lot. It is a big week for news and I need to be patient moving forward. As you know, in a choppy market it is easy to be drawn in and tempted to trade ahead of your preferred entry price. I miss several trades a month through this approach but when factoring in the $$$ from those trades that trigger it is a sound practice and policy to have.\r\n\r\nGood luck this week, I know from chatting with several of you that you have struggled with your own trades and suffered.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.2: MAJOR TRADING PAIRS WITH LONGER-TERM MATCHING TRENDS:\r\n(The following currency pairs have Short Term (DAILY), Medium Term (WEEKLY) and Long Term (MONTHLY) charts all trending in the same direction).\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/PREM-SERV-TRENDING-PAIRS-18102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6625\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/PREM-SERV-TRENDING-PAIRS-18102015.png\" alt=\"PREM SERV TRENDING PAIRS 18102015\" width=\"479\" height=\"616\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.3: THE PREMIUM SERVICE - LIVE TRADES ARE:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/PREM-SERV-LIVE-TRADES-18102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6624\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/PREM-SERV-LIVE-TRADES-18102015.png\" alt=\"PREM SERV LIVE TRADES 18102015\" width=\"700\" height=\"553\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.4: THE PREMIUM SERVICE – LIMIT ORDER TRADES ARE:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/PREM-SERV-LIMIT-ORDERS-18102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6623\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/PREM-SERV-LIMIT-ORDERS-18102015.png\" alt=\"PREM SERV LIMIT ORDERS 18102015\" width=\"684\" height=\"436\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.5: POTENTIAL TRADES - WHAT PAIRS / CHARTS AM I LOOKING AT:\r\n\r\nI am only looking at a couple of charts for potential trades as I have so many potential trades already in the position as limit orders.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURJPY-DAILY-18102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6634\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURJPY-DAILY-18102015-1024x514.png\" alt=\"EURJPY DAILY 18102015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"514\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPNZD-DAILY-18102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6633\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPNZD-DAILY-18102015-1024x514.png\" alt=\"GBPNZD DAILY 18102015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"514\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n	<li><strong> MY FINAL THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nOVERVIEW OF TRADING TIPS &amp; THOUGHTS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD:\r\n\r\nAnother week another chop fest.\r\n\r\nI see absolutely no reason at all why the market drivers should change this coming week.\r\n\r\nWe have a big news week. The BOC and ECB are my key events to follow. However, hanging over the market will be the ongoing pain in the ass “FED FACTOR”.\r\n\r\nIt will be difficult and choppy. I am starting to look at cross rates, but their volatility can at times give you the over-riding feeling of moving from the frying pan to the fire. It they catch a run in the wrong direction…whoosh! That can be 200 pips in an hour or many times even less. They are so reactionary, being caught the wrong side in such a twitchy market can be a cruel experience.\r\n\r\nTrade smaller and wider to keep those hopes and dreams alive!\r\n\r\nTake care.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nhttps://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/','HAVE WE SEEN THE TOP IN THE EUR/USD?','','publish','open','closed','','have-we-seen-the-top-in-the-eurusd','','','2015-10-18 07:56:53','2015-10-18 12:56:53','',0,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/?post_type=member_posts&#038;p=6635',0,'member_posts','',0),(6637,1,'2015-10-18 07:53:42','2015-10-18 12:53:42','<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>THE PREMIUM SERVICE</strong>\r\n<strong>from the</strong>\r\n<strong>WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU</strong>\r\n<strong>“The Home of Single Lot Trading”</strong></p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li><strong> THE VIEW FROM MY TRADE DESK:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nLOOKING BACKWARDS, FORWARDS &amp; SIDEWAYS (FOR GOOD MEASURE) AT THE FX MARKET:\r\n\r\n1.1: LOOKING BACKWARDS:\r\n\r\nThe title of last week\'s overall blog was: -\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">IS NOW THE TIME TO SELL THE\r\nCOMMODITY CURRENCIES?</p>\r\nLooking back I think that I was a week too soon with this trade idea. I say this because last week, I took a beating from the market, and to be frank, I should have known better, however, I dug my heels in like a spoilt child.\r\n\r\nThis month so far I have taken four bigger than usual pip losses on trades. I made a basic and elementary mistake. I thought I could dictate the market, I believed I knew which way the market was going and that it would turn in my favour. I was given a beating, and quite right too, as I should have known better.\r\n\r\nI have spent a good few hours beating myself up. The trades themselves were roughly in line with an extended RISK TOLERANCE that I adopt during periods of extreme market activity from time to time, however I hold up my arms in surrender.\r\n\r\nNow it is time to draw a line underneath everything and move forward.\r\n\r\nSince the poor NFP statistics were released, the continued layers of poor USD data frankly just exacerbated what was already a poor and difficult trading environment that I was stuck in.\r\n\r\nLast week’s poor retail sales and PPi from the U.S. were like nails in the coffin of hope that the FED will raise rates this year. Then the following day the CPi data was roughly in-line. The weekly unemployment claims are holding on average just below 170,000. This must be viewed as positive.\r\n\r\nI am still struggling to see how the CPI data was in line?\r\n\r\nThe revisions to the U.S. data can be brutal and, it makes it really difficult to formulate anything other than a 15-minute plan at times. How can it be that the U.S. with all its resources cannot deliver accurate data? It is not that far away from the Chinese data in the way it should be interpreted. The revisions are just crazy sometimes especially with the jobs data.\r\n\r\nIt certainly is both an interesting and difficult time to be trading. As I say to my friends when they ask me about trading and I give them an overview, I end with….”Welcome to my daily fecking nightmare”… that would have made a great title for an Alice Cooper album, back in the day.\r\n\r\nApart from the U.S. data highlights nothing else really springs to mind from last week from the economic data release standpoint that warrants any further comment.\r\n\r\nThat is of course, apart from this fecking merry-go-round, circus ride, helter bloody helter-skelter uncertainty induced shambles that Yellen and the rest of the FOMC are responsible for surrounding the 0.25% potential damn rate hike.\r\n\r\nI mean come on for God’s sake.\r\n\r\nI am the first in line criticizing the ECB for its shambolic handling of the media in run ups to press conferences and when after the official release, the opinions of the ECB members are delivered to the media in 15 second sound-bytes and are in conflict with what Mario Draghi has said. In fairness he (Draghi) seems to have kicked a few of these repeat offenders within the ECB in the nuts, and with aching samosas being the result of saying the wrong thing, the other ECB committee members now shut the f**k up.\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, the FOMC is worse than the ECB ever was. You will have no idea how hard it was to write this, unless you are a regular reader. What comes out of the regional FED presidents is complete and utter bollo**s, it counts for nothing.\r\n\r\nLook…the committee makes a decision. It releases a statement. These hangers on (Regional FED presidents), crave their moment of fame on TV being chatted up by one of the “hotties” on CNBC or BLOOMBERG. Their opinions count for nothing because when they vote around the table Janet Yellen’s word is final. If these FED presidents want to be outspoken and have different opinions to the FOMC minutes, they should grow a pair and rebel so that it is recorded in the minutes or better still let Janet Yellen “out them” in a press conference. At least then we would have consistency instead of the present, wishy-washy, namby-pamby headline driven quotes that disappear soon after they are given when we realize the quote means nothing and the deliverer of the quote is never challenged about it. They simply just crawl back under the rock they emanated from and hide.\r\n\r\nI know it’s a game. They have zero responsibility as the buck stops with Janet Yellen. In my opinion, she needs to strike hard, this will give those TV-happy FED presidents something to think about and maybe bring matters in line. If she did this half of the uncertainty in this news driven marketplace would be removed allowing for greater stability.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n1.2: LOOKING FORWARD:\r\n\r\nMAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:\r\n\r\n(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market other than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to <a href=\"http://www.forexfactory.com\">www.forexfactory.com</a> and <a href=\"http://www.tradingeconomics.com\">www.tradingeconomics.com</a> for a more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).\r\nSUNDAY: CNY – GDP and Industrial Production.\r\n\r\nMONDAY: AUD – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes.\r\n\r\nTUESDAY: GBP – Words of wisdom? from Mark Carney (BOE).\r\nTUESDAY: NZD – Dairy Prices.\r\nTUESDAY: USD – Words of wisdom from Janet Yellen (FED).\r\n\r\nWEDNESDAY: CAD – BOC Rate Statement and Monetary Policy.\r\nWEDNESDAY: CAD – Stephen Poloz (BOC) Press Conference.\r\n\r\nTHURSDAY: GBP – Retail Sales.\r\nTHURSDAY: CAD – Core Retail Sales.\r\nTHURSDAY: EUR – Interest Rate decision.\r\nTHURSDAY: EUR – Words of wisdom from Mario Draghi (ECB).\r\n\r\nFRIDAY: EUR – French &amp; German Flash Manufacturing PMi.\r\nFRIDAY: CAD – Core CPi.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMY THOUGHTS ON THE NEWS ITEMS THIS COMING WEEK:\r\n\r\nThe biggie this week for me living in Canada is the BOC announcement and press conference by Stephen Poloz on Wednesday, just two days after the Federal Election. Whilst I am expecting Poloz to cut rates, I doubt whether he will do so as this meeting is close to the election. If incumbent Stephen Harper retains overall control, maybe. If we have new minority government as expected I think any cut will be delayed by the BOC, to allow them to see policies to be driven through by the collation.\r\n\r\nWaiting to cut could be a real “own goal” for the BOC, so it should be interesting given that any further stimulus delay could make matters much worse. The situation south of the Canadian border does NOT help matters either.\r\n\r\nIn addition to the BOC, the items coming up this week that are high on my radar are speeches from Mark Carney (BOE) and Janet Yellen (FED) on Tuesday and obviously Mario Draghi’s (ECB) press conference due this Thursday.\r\n\r\nI think that I have said this before; “when these people cough and the markets react”. We are in very uncertain times, mostly created by the central bankers and governors. We “the people” do not elect these people yet they have more powers than Prime Ministers and Presidents to move the financial markets.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMY KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS THIS WEEK FOR USD MAJORS<strong>:\r\n</strong>In this section I have as usual kept my charts as minimalist as possible. All readers regardless of level of experience should be able to follow my thoughts from my comments to the levels on the charts with ease.\r\n\r\nEUR/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.1348\r\n\r\nWe are still range bound albeit in quite a big range. From last weeks close we are only 13 pips lower in price.\r\n\r\nThe range in my opinion is now basically from 1.1100 to 1.1500 as shown on the chart below.\r\n\r\nAs I will write later, I believe the resistance at 1.1500 could represent a top with this pair given the ECB meeting this week and the fact that the issues / problems in the Eurozone are far from over, a slip lower would in my opinion definitely not be out of the question.\r\n\r\nShould Draghi drop a bomb on the market a test of 1.1000 is the line in the sand as far as I am concerned that says yes or no to a test of parity.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURUSDDaily18102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6627\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURUSDDaily18102015.png\" alt=\"EURUSDDaily18102015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nGBP/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.5440\r\n\r\nWe have trend line resistance at 1.5508 and a little horizontal resistance as well from August this year. Cable has been flip-flopping around as usual, although I am wondering (maybe rather foolishly) have we seen a short-term top. Every time I send out an alert or chart to my subscribers for the GBP/USD I feel like having a bottle of Jack Daniels on the side of my desk… ice at the ready.\r\n\r\nI suppose trying to be consistent across all the major pairs, the cable has to some extent under-performed the others. My buddy Mark Carney is due to give the world further words of wisdom this week, which will no doubt get an instant reaction and cause me probably to wonder once again what the hell is this guy smoking!\r\n\r\nThe GBP/USD is the master of false moves and Carney is the master of leading the market the wrong way\r\n\r\nI am bearish the pair, but I would not get too sexed up with a short trade until we have cracked 1.5300, having said that, there are both long and short trade opportunities with this pair.\r\n\r\nWith the cable you have to be careful. If we have three or four days of chop it will be a bull flag pattern that we are creating and instead of a reversal just a continuation move.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPUSDDaily18102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6628\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPUSDDaily18102015.png\" alt=\"GBPUSDDaily18102015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAUD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.7267\r\n\r\nI never feel 100% comfortable being long this pair. Right now, I see a range of 0.7200 to 0.7380.\r\n\r\nRecent economic data from Australia has been poor and rather inconsistent. I feel that the RBA will go HAWKISH; I know they claim the Swiss approach of neutrality at the moment but frankly this just cannot last. My reasons for the thoughts are simple; Japan and Commodity Prices.\r\n\r\nMy bias is to the short side and I know that it is always dangerous to pick a top but the 0.7380 – 0.7400 level offered good pricing back in August this year.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AUDUSDDaily18102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6626\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/AUDUSDDaily18102015.png\" alt=\"AUDUSDDaily18102015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNZD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.6806\r\n\r\nThis pair gives me very similar thoughts to those relating to the AUD/USD. I will believe that the bears are in control 100% when we break below 0.6620. Right now, I think we have topped. But looking at smaller charts it could be a bull flag.\r\n\r\nWhat is making me think it’s a top?\r\n\r\nVery simple it’s RBNZ monetary policy. They do not want the value of the NZD/USD in their faces at 0.7000; they are more in favour of 0.6000 or probably even less.\r\n\r\nLooking at the chart below, it does look rather bullish and we could be flagging but I hope not.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/NZDUSDDaily18102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6629\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/NZDUSDDaily18102015.png\" alt=\"NZDUSDDaily18102015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CAD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.2921\r\n\r\nThis pair has basically consolidated its drop of 650 pips from its 1.3455 highs in the past week. There was only a difference of about 20 pips in the closing prices this week versus last week.\r\n\r\nI am hoping for a further move lower to 1.2750. This pair is part of my TRADE PLAN and my goal is to be long. I try not to chase so I will be looking for a pullback this week to enter long… 200 pips of a pullback would be just great!\r\n\r\nOnly when we are back above the 38% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.3070 will I start to believe that the bulls are firmly back in control once again.\r\n\r\nI see 1.2830 to 1.3000 controlling prices over the near- term. Remember, the BOC meets this week for a rate announcement and there is a Canadian Federal election on Monday 19<sup>th</sup> October, it could be volatile.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCADDaily18102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6630\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCADDaily18102015.png\" alt=\"USDCADDaily18102015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/CHF - Weekly Closing Price: 0.9537\r\n\r\nI am STILL long this pair.\r\n\r\nI do expect it to breakout higher. I see 0.9550 as a big resistance test and should we break through this level with conviction; we should start to accelerate higher.\r\n\r\nKey support lies at 0.9475.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCHFDaily18102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6631\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDCHFDaily18102015.png\" alt=\"USDCHFDaily18102015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nUSD/JPY - Weekly Closing Price: 119.44\r\n\r\nThis pair is being speculated upon at the moment in the sense that the BOJ is rumoured to be considering more QE. Well if they are considering QE, a lot of money is being burned.\r\n\r\nI think we are starting to flag on lower minute charts with this pair ahead of the expected announcement at the end of this month.\r\n\r\nIn my opinion, it is gambling to get long now, much the same as people did earlier this year on the EUR/CHF floor being supported at 1.2000 by the SNB. I am not expecting the same reaction in the markets should the BOJ not ease further but expectations and GREED are high.\r\n\r\nI think a break above 121.00 will be crucial for the bulls and the bears are looking below 118.00.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDJPYDaily18102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6632\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/USDJPYDaily18102015.png\" alt=\"USDJPYDaily18102015\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n1.3: LOOKING SIDEWAYS (FOR GOOD MEASURE):\r\n\r\nRegular readers will know that for sometime I have been promising a new look to the format of the blog.\r\n\r\nA small working party of subscribers from my fee-based subscriber group (The Premium Service), have been working with me on options and alternatives moving forward.\r\n\r\nThe changes highlighted have been delayed for two reasons: -\r\n\r\nFirstly, the group leader has been away on business for two months, which we knew about in advance of the updates being implemented, but we had hoped for the changes to be in position ahead of the blog resumption in September and prior to his departure. Sadly we missed the deadline set and as Janet Yellen and Mario Draghi say the existing blog is transitory.\r\n\r\nSecondly, I was looking at the option of hosting the paid subscribers away from the same site as this blog and this created more discussion than I thought, which is still on-going and I am far from clear what route is going to be adopted.\r\n\r\nI am now therefore looking at a timeframe of January 2016 after the Christmas / end of year holiday.\r\n\r\nWe are in a chop fest of a market and basically I see no change on the horizon. I think that the FOMC has really created this period of uncertainty in the markets and every time extremes in pricing are approached we see a huge increase in volatility and a pullback resulting in more volatility as bulls and bears fight for control.\r\n\r\nI suppose I should not complain too much, at least we now have a two sided market. For what seems like years we have been operating in a bull market environment only.\r\n\r\nTherefore, as a result we just have be more aware of what the other markets are doing and the interactions to the Forex market. Correlations do matter and they do count towards the consideration to trade. I am not a believer of analysis paralysis but the more we take into consideration the better when placing a trade.\r\n\r\nIn these choppy markets sometimes bear in mind you best trade may be the one that you decided against taking; food for thought.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n	<li><strong> WHAT’S ON MY MIND:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>HAVE WE SEEN THE TOP IN THE EUR/USD?</strong></p>\r\n<strong> </strong>Let me answer my question:\r\n\r\nHave we seen the top in the EUR/USD?\r\n\r\nI believe we have…. YES.\r\n\r\nWhy do I say this?\r\n\r\nVery briefly, the Eurozone has been somewhat of a back seat driver for a while now with the GREECE ELECTIONS passing by with a mere whimper and poor economic data out of the Eurozone being rather throw away as not that important. For months now it seems that the Eurozone has been playing second fiddle to the FED.\r\n\r\nBasically, after the FOMC kept rates on hold, it was as if a huge sigh of relief was heard from Wall Street. The ensuing economic data from the U.S. has been practically 80% of the time poor. It would not surprise me at all if the next intervention by the FED were to re-introduce another form of Quantitative Easing (QE). After 7 years of zero interest rates, the biggest consumer driven society in the world has failed to even get a 0.25% rate hike through. Policy has failed and the only policy known by central bankers is QE.\r\n\r\nWe have DEFLATION practically all over the western world. There is no known cure for this except that a country has to grow and there is no confidence, with commodity prices on the floor, sales all over poor, production output is poor, and purchases of raw materials weak.\r\n\r\nThe combination of these factors has us bordering on RECESSION and DEFLATION.\r\n\r\nBack to the Eurozone; Merkel wanted austerity rather than QE. The Germans fuc**d up Europe single handedly once again, so much pain and for what?\r\n\r\nAfter 6 years of a failing austerity program, they then introduce Quantitative Easing, which hasn\'t had the desired effect either.\r\n\r\nAfter the FOMC minutes were released relating the “HOLD ON RATES MEETING” the EUR/USD made its way to 1.1500 and then failed.\r\n\r\nI believe that a number of factors caused a sanity pill to be swallowed and then the EUR/USD has started to drift lower. I am personally hoping for a re-test of just above 1.1414 then a complete failure to lower levels once again. Basically, we had a short covering rally and now I believe common sense will prevail – Good Lord, did I just write common sense when talking about the Forex market?\r\n\r\nLast week one of the ECB members who you can always rely on to speak when he shouldn’t, Ewald Nowotny (Austrian Central Bank President), said that low inflation (DEFLATION to you and me) and low growth are worrying. He said something along the lines of “it’s obvious that additional financial instruments are necessary” (More QE to you and me…. at least).\r\n\r\nI think that his comments, were probably too late for something to be introduced this week. I just cannot see that something would have been worked out in secret without a leak from within the ECB. But I do think his comments would have resonated with many in the Eurozone.\r\n\r\nHere are a few numbers / statistics in no order of importance that political leaders in the Eurozone should be disgusted with as their policies after 7 years have failed miserably and there is NO light at the end of the tunnel. (By the way the U.S. is NOT much better): -\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>EURO AREA - GROWTH RATE (GDP)                            0.40%</li>\r\n	<li>EURO AREA – INFLATION                                                -0.10% (DEFLATION)</li>\r\n	<li>EURO AREA – YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT RATE          22.3%</li>\r\n	<li>EURO AREA - CONSUMER CONFIDENCE                   -7.1</li>\r\n	<li>EURO AREA – BUSINESS CONFIDENCE                     0.34%</li>\r\n	<li>EURO AREA - RETAIL SALES (Monthly)                         0%</li>\r\n	<li>EURO AREA - RETAIL SALES (Annualized)                   2.3%</li>\r\n	<li>EURO AREA – MANUFACTURING PMi                           52</li>\r\n	<li>EURO AREA – SERVICES PMi                                         53.7</li>\r\n	<li>EURO AREA – INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION                 0.9%</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAt least the PMi’s are above 50 apart but from that it is dour reading. To say that economically the Eurozone is bouncing along the bottom is generous. There is no real improvement at all.\r\n\r\nIt is any wonder that Nowotny spoke what was on his mind?\r\n\r\nOn top of all this we have to add in the VOLKSWAGEN effect, which is not factored at all in these numbers.\r\n\r\nA German car manufacturer found “cooking the books” lying for over a decade, the ramifications are massive, and they will be extremely costly. Not just to the VW Group but probably to Germany as well.\r\n\r\nThe Germans were extremely reluctant to cut any slack to GREECE, they will be looking to their European partners to dig into their pockets when it comes to the matter of reducing the VW effect on the Eurozone.\r\n\r\nSo as traders I think YES, we have seen the shorter-term top in the EUR/USD. I am expecting an orderly move lower. Draghi’s press conference will be interesting this Thursday. The last couple have passed by very uneventful, but this time I expect a few fireworks.\r\n\r\nI believe he will outline, if not announce, the extension of the QE program beyond 2016.\r\n\r\nHe will make a few comments about some/ many economic factors being transitory (How fecking long is a transitory period - over a year?). That\'s how long low inflation (DELATION to you and me) has been following Draghi around like a doting little puppy.\r\n\r\nHe will refer to instruments with three letter abbreviations (TLA) that he has up his sleeve and ready to use, and basically state that he is ready and armed to assist with all programs that are inside his operational mandate.\r\n\r\nQuestions will be focused on timings and which additional programs are appropriate or worthy of consideration.\r\n\r\nI do feel this meeting will raise the profile of the Eurozone problems once again and this will place a lid on 1.1500.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"3\">\r\n	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:\r\n</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">3.1: SUMMARY OF YEAR TO DATE PERFORMANCE - 2015:</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>PREMIUM SERVICE – COST INCOME ANALYSIS (USD):</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">PROFITS FROM TRADE SET-UPS – to October 18th 2015.\r\n(The profit levels below are based on single lot trades only)</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">MICRO LOT TRADER - 545 trades cost to trade = $54.50\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 545 trades = <strong>$847.30</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">MINI LOT TRADER - 545 trades cost to trade = $545.00\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 545 trades = <strong>$8.473.00</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">STANDARD LOT TRADER - 545 trades cost to trade = $5,450.00\r\n<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 545 trades = <strong>$84,730.00</strong></p>\r\n3.2: PREMIUM SERVICE – TRADE SUMMARIES MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/PREM-SERV-PROFITS1-18102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6616\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/PREM-SERV-PROFITS1-18102015.png\" alt=\"PREM SERV PROFITS1 18102015\" width=\"519\" height=\"416\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/PREM-SERV-PROFITS2-18102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6617\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/PREM-SERV-PROFITS2-18102015.png\" alt=\"PREM SERV PROFITS2 18102015\" width=\"516\" height=\"422\" /></a>\r\n\r\nNOTES:\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>If the above return from Forex Trading interests you go to my website landing page at <a href=\"http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com\">weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> and check out the subscription options and special promotions under the tabs “PREMIUM SERVICE” and “PROMOTIONS”</li>\r\n	<li>If you want more data about the performance and my website does not answer your questions. Contact me direct and I will supply the data you require.</li>\r\n	<li>THE PREMIUM SERVICE has subscribers with broker accounts of sizes ranging from $2,500 to over $100,000. A profitable trade is a profitable trade. It is all about trading according to the size of your broker account (EFFECTIVE POSITION SIZING) and applying RISK MANAGEMENT principles at all times.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ol start=\"4\">\r\n	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) SUBSCRIBER CONTENT:\r\n</strong>(The following section is additional data, thoughts, and ideas exclusively for PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) subscribers)</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n4.1: THE PREMIUM SERVICE – TRADING REVIEW:\r\n\r\nIt has been a difficult month for me so far. Every time I think I am turning a corner I get smacked back.\r\n\r\nIt’s all about how you react after receiving a few body blows. I have taken almost 1,000 pips in losses. This is so unusual for me. I know that I let 500 of these go by deciding to manage risk exposure tighter and 200 of these pips (CHF/JPY) was the right thing to do. I still found this hard to swallow.\r\n\r\nI have a lot live trades and several limit orders are in position. As you will see later, I am not really looking at many other charts right now. If I were to have all limit orders live as well, I would be managing 15 trades or so. That’s more than enough for me to manage in any session.\r\n\r\nMy concentration now, is looking at the USD. We may have bottomed, although the JPY is strengthening when the S&amp;P is rising. Always a major concern to consider as this correlation is important to me. This could weaken the USD and then I am back at square one.\r\n\r\nThe rumours of more BOJ easing at the end of the month are not having the desired effect at the moment as many people do not think that the BOJ will throw more money at the markets. I am not so sure; I would say that Abe and Kuroda, both have twitching bottoms at the moment given the USD/JPY strength and they will be under threat for their positions if the JPY strength grows. This may force them to act, maybe not for the correct reasons. They are in the political area, its what these people do, and they are not held accountable for their actions in the real sense of the word.\r\n\r\nFrom a trading perspective, I am trying to keep trades alive (USD/CHF and EUR/CHF), as these are key components of my TRADING PLAN through to the middle of next year.\r\n\r\nI have added NZD trades and I am looking to add more as time passes.\r\n\r\nI mentioned last week the chicken and egg scenario, I believe that I am still in the same place\r\n\r\nI know I write the word patience a lot. It is a big week for news and I need to be patient moving forward. As you know, in a choppy market it is easy to be drawn in and tempted to trade ahead of your preferred entry price. I miss several trades a month through this approach but when factoring in the $$$ from those trades that trigger it is a sound practice and policy to have.\r\n\r\nGood luck this week, I know from chatting with several of you that you have struggled with your own trades and suffered.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.2: MAJOR TRADING PAIRS WITH LONGER-TERM MATCHING TRENDS:\r\n(The following currency pairs have Short Term (DAILY), Medium Term (WEEKLY) and Long Term (MONTHLY) charts all trending in the same direction).\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/PREM-SERV-TRENDING-PAIRS-18102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6625\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/PREM-SERV-TRENDING-PAIRS-18102015.png\" alt=\"PREM SERV TRENDING PAIRS 18102015\" width=\"479\" height=\"616\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.3: THE PREMIUM SERVICE - LIVE TRADES ARE:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/PREM-SERV-LIVE-TRADES-18102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6624\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/PREM-SERV-LIVE-TRADES-18102015.png\" alt=\"PREM SERV LIVE TRADES 18102015\" width=\"700\" height=\"553\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.4: THE PREMIUM SERVICE – LIMIT ORDER TRADES ARE:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/PREM-SERV-LIMIT-ORDERS-18102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6623\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/PREM-SERV-LIMIT-ORDERS-18102015.png\" alt=\"PREM SERV LIMIT ORDERS 18102015\" width=\"684\" height=\"436\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n4.5: POTENTIAL TRADES - WHAT PAIRS / CHARTS AM I LOOKING AT:\r\n\r\nI am only looking at a couple of charts for potential trades as I have so many potential trades already in the position as limit orders.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURJPY-DAILY-18102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6634\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EURJPY-DAILY-18102015-1024x514.png\" alt=\"EURJPY DAILY 18102015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"514\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPNZD-DAILY-18102015.png\"><img class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-6633\" src=\"https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/GBPNZD-DAILY-18102015-1024x514.png\" alt=\"GBPNZD DAILY 18102015\" width=\"1024\" height=\"514\" /></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n	<li><strong> MY FINAL THOUGHTS:</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nOVERVIEW OF TRADING TIPS &amp; THOUGHTS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD:\r\n\r\nAnother week another chop fest.\r\n\r\nI see absolutely no reason at all why the market drivers should change this coming week.\r\n\r\nWe have a big news week. The BOC and ECB are my key events to follow. However, hanging over the market will be the ongoing pain in the ass “FED FACTOR”.\r\n\r\nIt will be difficult and choppy. I am starting to look at cross rates, but their volatility can at times give you the over-riding feeling of moving from the frying pan to the fire. It they catch a run in the wrong direction…whoosh! That can be 200 pips in an hour or many times even less. They are so reactionary, being caught the wrong side in such a twitchy market can be a cruel experience.\r\n\r\nTrade smaller and wider to keep those hopes and dreams alive!\r\n\r\nTake care.\r\n\r\nScott Pickering\r\nThe Pip Accumulator\r\nhttps://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/','HAVE WE SEEN THE TOP IN THE EUR/USD?','','inherit','closed','closed','','6635-revision-v1','','','2015-10-18 07:53:42','2015-10-18 12:53:42','',6635,'https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/6635-revision-v1/',0,'revision','',0),