&nbsp;
<ol>
	<li><span style="font-size: 14pt;"><strong> INTRODUCTION:</strong></span></li>
</ol>
It has been a great week for volatility. Mario Draghi set the ball rolling and the Scottish referendum has kept the markets busy looking at voter’s polls ahead of the actual vote on Thursday 18<sup>th</sup> September.

I will be closing all of my live trades and canceling all of my limit orders. This is the sensible way to manage risk in my opinion, ahead of these major news events, even though they do not happen until later in the week ahead.

From a trading perspective it was a good week last week and from my own point of view more trades and better $$$ returns than the previous week. Long may this trend continue.

Given that we have the FED going in one direction with monetary policy and the ECB heading in the complete opposite direction, I believe that we are going to see direction trading coming back into play, and, lets be frank, this is long overdue. Trading over the past 9-10 months has been difficult, painful and at times expensive. Hopefully, now we will see a strong US$ as we move forward. If equities were to roll over as well and give the market the pullback so many people have been waiting for, this will also give directional trading.

The US$ index, whether you look at it under the symbol DXY (below) or through the more weighted FXCM index, suggests that we are very close to a massive breakout, which if it occurred would see the EUR/USD at 1.2000 or below. A breakout above 85.00 could set up a move to 94.00 and this would coincide with the EUR/USD at levels just mentioned (see charts below).

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/DXY-13092014.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-4328" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/DXY-13092014-1024x524.png" alt="DXY 13092014" width="1024" height="524" /></a>

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As regular readers know today (Saturday 13<sup>th</sup> September) and tomorrow I am holding a series of 5 seminars in Montreal called “ AN INTRODUCTION TO FOREX TRADING” coupled with my PREMIUM SERVICE programme.

I have been spending some time with rehearsals and refining my PowerPoint slides for the attendees plus handouts etc. I am really looking forward to the presentations, if successful tour T-shirts will be available soon!

<strong> </strong>

<strong> </strong>
<ol start="2">
	<li><strong><span style="font-size: 14pt;"> THE PREMIUM SERVICE: –</span>

</strong></li>
</ol>
<p style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>OVERVIEW, TRADING ACTIVITY, NEWS UPDATE &amp; MONTHLY AND </strong></span></p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>YEAR TO DATE TRADING SUMMARIES:</strong></span></p>
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2.1 OVERVIEW:

For new readers who may not be aware, I refer to the PREMIUM SERVICE quite a lot in this blog and for more details about what it is, and, how much it costs, you will need to go the welcome page of <a href="http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> At the top of the page there are three drop down menus: PREMIUM SERVICE, SIGN-UP and DISCLAIMER. Further details and how to join are all contained there. You will need at PayPal account to subscribe.

2.2 TRADING ACTIVITY:

Last week was a much-improved week over the previous one, as I had greater opportunities to take advantage of the market moves, plus the fact the previous week was only 4 days and my return to trading after the summer break. This is reflected in the trade summary excel spreadsheets in section 2.4.

I had a large number of limit orders last week that were never triggered. This can happen. There are certain trades that I will not chase; in fact, I try not to chase any pair lower or higher. I had limit orders in fast moving pairs like USD/NOK. USD/SEK and USD/MXN these are pairs that I believe you must be very disciplined with. They move so far so fast and should you chase them from your entry level you usually get whipped.

As I have stated many times, sometimes your best trades are the ones you miss. Trading Forex is all about longevity. There is a market everyday; you do NOT need to be in 10 trades a day, being selective and disciplined working within your goals and objectives within your TRADING PLAN is the only route for success and longevity.

2.3 NEWS UPDATE:

Later today, I am in the following location holding my seminars AN INTRODUCTION TO FOREX TRADING and the PREMIUM SERVICE.

DATES:          Saturday13<sup>th</sup> and Sunday 14<sup>th</sup> September 2014.
VENUE:         Hampton Inn and Suites.
ADDRESS:    1900 Rte. Transcanadienne (Nr. Blvd Des Sources), MONTREAL.
TIMES:           Saturday - 11.30AM, 2.30PM and 4.30PM.
Sunday - 2.30PM and 4.30PM.

Seating will be limited. If you are coming and want to reserve a place please contact me via email and I will confirm a reserved seat as close to the front as possible.

If you are an existing subscriber and want to introduce yourself and say hello please come along if you have time to spare.

If you are an existing subscriber and have friends that are interested in Forex come along with them.

<strong> </strong>

2.4 MONTHLY AND YEAR TO DATE TRADING SUMMARIES<strong>:</strong>
Below I show the up to date performances for my various trading styles. Full excel spreadsheets are in the subscriber area of the PREMIUM SERVICE website.

Below are the excel spreadsheets covering this month so far and the year 2014 to date.

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/PREM-SERV-PROFITS1-13092104.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-4334" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/PREM-SERV-PROFITS1-13092104.png" alt="PREM SERV PROFITS1 13092104" width="450" height="410" /></a>
<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/PREM-SERV-PROFITS2-13092014.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-4335" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/PREM-SERV-PROFITS2-13092014.png" alt="PREM SERV PROFITS2 13092014" width="461" height="407" /></a>

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The above examples are for illustration purposes only:

The profitability examples detailed above are based solely upon single lot trading, regardless of lot type. If multiple lot sizes are traded the profitability margins will be different than those shown.

Just to provide more information so you understand where I am coming from with the risk / reward statements above. All of my trades are of different sizes and different size lot types. The above does not reflect the actual trading performance, but it does show you the direction of the performance of the trades placed.

I like to add to trades, profits are taken as the trade progresses and my overall cost average moves several times. All of my trades are of different lot styles. I trade a mixture of micro lots, mini lots and standard lots across my brokers.

The above results simply display your profit or loss if you placed a single lot trade on all the set-ups suggested and did nothing else

<strong> </strong>
<ol start="3">
	<li><span style="font-size: 14pt;"><strong> THE FUNDAMENTAL TRADERS OVERVIEW:</strong></span><strong> </strong></li>
</ol>
<p style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>FIREWORKS AHEAD IN CABLE BUT DO NOT FORGET ABOUT THE FED</strong></span></p>
Those of you who know me know that I am half English and half Scottish. The referendum is of great interest to me as I still have some family living in Edinburgh.

I have been fairly active on twitter and in my daily blog for PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers THE DAILY FX POST about my thoughts and feelings as the actual voting day draws nearer. Regular readers will know that I have little time for most politicians from whatever country as to me they are generally self serving personalities with little respect or understanding of real life day to day issues. I see them in the main as detached individuals working within party lines only interested in the popular vote and not real issues that concern their electorates. That said, their jobs are thankless and quite frankly deep down I admire people who put themselves forward for public office who want to contribute to change, but sadly only a few politicians enter politics for this reason.

I know that I sound like I am on my soap box, and, I suppose I am, but they are points that continue to resonate with me as I look from a distance at what is being done in the UK from Westminster in an attempt to win a NO vote and have Scotland remain in the union (UK).

It is sadly, maybe, “TOO LITTLE TO LATE”.

All three party leaders went to Scotland, no doubt having nose-bleeds as they travelled past Carlisle or Newcastle on the way north to Edinburgh and Glasgow.

Outsiders will never understand, but ever since the landing of North Sea Oil, many Scots see this as the family treasure being wasted by idiotic politicians in London who do not represent the needs of Scotland’s population. I know that there are counter arguments about health, foreign policies, security etc, but the guy on the street in Glasgow just does not see it this way.

Many areas of Scotland are starved of investment and unemployment is high. The Scots believe that if they had control of the oil monies they would use this to create jobs, areas of expertise and fund directly to where the cash is required. This argument is also true for many parts of England as well, who feel that it’s all about London and the South East.

Politicians journeyed north to try and change the thoughts that have been embedded for generations. Westminster grossly under-estimated the feeling. They probably spoke to big business, who, like RBS have stated they will re-locate to London if the vote is YES.

I just hate reactivity and not proactivity in these matters and once again the politicians in Westminster did not plan, did not schedule, they sat back and were complacent. Now it’s running around like headless chickens time. This gives the YES vote the initiative.

The one point that will cause volatility in the run up to Thursday’s vote as well as sample polls of voting intentions is the number of big businesses that threaten to move out of the financial centre of Edinburgh. To replace these jobs would be extremely difficult and would take years to regenerate the investment. This will help the NO vote, as voters will be voting with FEAR. How many people are going to vote YES, and then do this in the full knowledge that their job is going to be re-located to London. It is like Turkeys voting for Thanksgiving or Christmas.

Last weekends YES poll that showed a majority of voters in favour of independence, sent shivers through the markets and had MP’s scrambling for airline seats to travel north to Scotland from Westminster to try and win over support for the then ailing NO vote. The reaction from GBP through the GBP/USD was swift and clean. An opening gap lower a week ago by over 150 pips did not fill, in fact, and, on the Monday after Sunday’s open the cable traded down over 225 pips.

Over the next couple of days more polls were released and the NO vote was back on top by 5%. The markets in crazy mode rallied, but I think looking at the moves we should as traders consider the following with regards to the GBP/USD ahead of Thursday’s vote.

The best plan is to avoid the GBP/USD. This is the best approach looking at Forex trading as a RISK ASSESSOR. Why should you deliberately take on risk when you do not need to? It is guesswork as to how the vote will result. You could guess correct…. But…. You could guess wrong.

<span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>STAY WAY FROM THE GBP.</strong></span>

If it were only the GBP effects from the Scottish Referendum that we had to consider this week this would be enough but we have FOMC Economic Projections, a FOMC Statement, FED Funds rate and Press Conference to look forward to.

There are rumours about; that the FED narrative that accompanies the FOMC statements are going to change to outline a more aggressive hawkish tone regarding the timetable for increasing interest rates.

As I said last week: -

<em>“I think that we are at a crossroads of realization for certain parts of the market, as the ECB continue to ease and the FED look to end quantitative easing and enter a period of starting to raise rates. The divergent policies are USD supportive and with the potential of finally seeing some directional moves”</em>

We could see the start of effects of US$ strength coming through the markets. Do not underestimate the moves that could be made.

Even though the FED started tightening last year, the effects of this have yet to be seen and I think that a change in FED tone could be just what the doctor ordered for some directional Forex moves.

So, I believe we could have fireworks two days on the run this week, Wednesday with the FOMC and Thursday with the Scottish Vote.

If the FED announces rate increases from the end of this year instead of early next year and Scotland votes YES…… the GBP/USD could be a good short trade sub 1.6000 to 1.5550…just saying.

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/GBPUSD-MONTHLY-13092014.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-4336" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/GBPUSD-MONTHLY-13092014-1024x540.png" alt="GBPUSD MONTHLY 13092014" width="1024" height="540" /></a>

Ignoring cable we could see the start of the EUR/USD run to 1.2000. There are potentially huge moves available.

<strong> </strong>

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/EURUSD-MONTHLY-13092014.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-4337" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/EURUSD-MONTHLY-13092014-1024x540.png" alt="EURUSD MONTHLY 13092014" width="1024" height="540" /></a>

<strong> </strong>

Be careful, do not take on unnecessary risk, this is not what trading is about. Always trade as per your TRADING PLAN and within your RISK TOLERANCE / MANAGEMENT guidelines.

Remember, there is a market every day, and to be forewarned is forearmed.

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<strong> </strong>
<ol start="4">
	<li><span style="font-size: 14pt;"><strong> TRADER TOPICS:</strong></span></li>
</ol>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong><span style="font-size: 12pt;">TRADING MISTAKES THAT MAY BE LIMITING YOUR PROFITABILITY</span></strong><strong> </strong><strong>
</strong></p>
If you have been trading for sometime and moving from the breakeven stage in your trading development, you are now on the select group that can call themselves consistently profitable.

Now that your trading has elevated to the next level, you feel comfortable but maybe you are not 100% happy, as you are not really moving forward on improving your profitability. You are basically making money, but you know that you can do better.

Let me highlight a few items that maybe limiting your profitability.

&nbsp;
<ol>
	<li>IMPROPER POSITION SIZING:</li>
</ol>
This as you know if you regularly read my blogs etc is in my opinion one of the major key elements of RISK MANAGEMENT that can spell the difference between “catching a big fish or snagging a small fry”. This goes beyond knowing how much you stand to lose – you also have to know when to trade big and when to minimize your risk exposure, providing of course it is detailed within your TRADE PLAN.

When the market is trading in your direction and you are dealing with a high probability set-up with a large potential reward, it can be a good idea to increase your position size, but once again it’s all about your TRADE PLAN.

On the other hand, if you feel that there’s a great deal of uncertainty involved and the potential return does not look as good, it is best to reduce your position size and trade with a smaller position.

This is pure common sense.

&nbsp;
<ol start="2">
	<li>INABILITY TO ADAPT TO THE MARKET ENVIRONMENT:</li>
</ol>
To maximize the moves in the markets, as traders we have to be 100% flexible and know and understand how to adjust to the changing market conditions.

Obviously, you cannot expect a big swing move when volatility is low and when the market is trading in a tight range. It simply just does not work that way you have to be reasonable with your expectations and always plan your trades with the market environment in mind.

PLAN YOUR TRADES and TRADE YOUR PLAN.

Remember, YOU must adapt to the market not the other way around.

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<ol start="3">
	<li>FEAR:</li>
</ol>
I have written many times that FEAR and GREED dominate all psychology when trading.

Jumping into a long trade when the currency pair has already risen and shorting after a pair has already fallen may help sometimes as you ride on a momentum move but this approach has drawbacks.

Firstly, you did not achieve the best entry price. This can dramatically affect your risk – to – reward ratio. Secondly, your late entry to the trade elevates your risk and makes you vulnerable to pullbacks.

It is often written that the TREND IS YOUR FRIEND, but you should be aware that your fear of entering might keep you from taking the trade at the best price. Fear can lead you to jump in at the wrong times, when the market may have already moved a lot. This is called “chasing the market”.

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Always try to be on the lookout for these things. Just because your account is positive doesn’t always mean that you should not try to improve. This is the beauty of Forex trading; there is always room for improvement.

By becoming more aware of position sizing, your capacity to adapt to the market environments, and fear, you can raise the performance bar higher.

<strong> </strong><strong> </strong>
<ol start="5">
	<li><span style="font-size: 14pt;"><strong> MY CURRENT LIVE TRADES:</strong></span></li>
</ol>
&nbsp;

<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>FLASH TRADES:</strong></span>

FT172
NZD/USD
Short
Entry at: 0.8180
Stop at: 0.8030
Limit at: 0.7800
Present Price: 0.8135
Current Profit / Loss Position: +45 pips

<strong> </strong>

<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>RADAR TRADES:</strong></span>

RT143
AUD/NZD
Long
Long at 1.1200
Stop at 1.1020
Limit at 1.1550
Present Price: 1.1059
Current Profit / Loss Position: -141 pips
(This trade is now hedged at a 100 pip loss<strong>)</strong>

<strong> </strong>

<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><strong>FUNDAMENTAL TRADES:</strong></span>

FUN14
GBP/NZD
Long
Cost Average: 1.9800
Stop Loss: 1.9000
Limit / Target: 2.2350
Weekly Closing Price: 1.9925
Current Profit / Loss Position: +125 pips

<strong> </strong>
<ol start="6">
	<li><span style="font-size: 14pt;"><strong> TRADES THAT ARE ON MY RADAR:</strong></span></li>
</ol>
&nbsp;

RT151
USD/JPY
Long at 105.95
Stop at 105.50
Limit at 110.00

I will be looking to add trades based upon the Sunday night open. Due to many geopolitical news events hanging over the markets, I would rather review trades early next week.<strong> </strong>

<strong> </strong>
<ol start="7">
	<li><span style="font-size: 14pt;"><strong> LOOKING FORWARD…THE KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS:</strong></span></li>
</ol>
&nbsp;

<strong>EUR/USD: Closing Price 1.2962.</strong> I feel we have just been consolidating the past week. There have been a few moves lower but buyers have stepped in bringing the pair back to the mid-range between 1.2860 and 1.3000. We have not really tested the higher parts of the range and, if like me, you are not yet short the EUR/USD around 1.3000 would look to be an excellent area in which to establish a short trade.
The range is as previously stated support at 1.2860 and resistance at 1.3000. My bias is BEARISH.

<strong>GBP/USD: Closing Price 1.6262</strong>. This is a very volatile currency pair at the moment. Personally, I am avoiding the cable like the plague. This weekend is the final one ahead of the Scottish Referendum vote and I can guarantee you that this British press will be on steroids this weekend producing poll after poll and rumour after rumour. I am looking at 1.6100 to 1.6300 as being the rather large range to observe. If we get a break higher or lower out of this range fair enough… but be careful and be aware of false moves. The RISK MANAGEMENT trade is to stay away until after the votes have been counted and released.
The trading range to observe in my opinion is 1.6100 support to 1.6300 resistance.<strong> </strong>

<strong>AUD/USD: Closing Price 0.9037</strong>. The sell-off continues, what a nice fall in the AUD and I missed all of it, all of the +300 pips. I am expecting buyers to step in ahead of 0.9000, but whether or not they hold up the drop is debatable. In any event I am hoping for a 60-80-pip bounce to enable traders like myself to establish a short position.
Support is at 0.9000 and resistance at 0.9110. My bias is BEARISH.

<strong>NZD/USD: Closing Price 0.8135</strong>. A nice continued fall in the NZD/USD, this pair could really be ready for sub 0.8000 soon. Looking forward I see about 0.7200 to 0.7500 as probably the area of exchange with the NZD/USD that the RBNZ would prefer.
For now support is at 0.8100 and resistance at 0.8220. My bias is BEARISH.

<strong>USD/CAD: Closing Price 1.1089.</strong> This pair is on the cusp of a huge break higher in my opinion. Once we broke 1.1000 the writing was on the wall and the fall in oil has contributed a bit as well. I am personally waiting for a pullback to re-enter long once again.
The range for me is support at 1.1030 and resistance at 1.1140. My bias is BULLISH.

<strong>USD/CHF: Closing Price 0.9317</strong>. The SNB has indicated that it is not averse to negative deposit rates. We have a SNB announcement this week, all eyes on this one. The fact that SNB officials have been out and about spouting it could be read that an official announcement could be made about both the negative interest rates and the EUR/CHF peg at 1.2000. The EUR/CHF peg at 1.2000 is critical to the SNB and they will defend it at all costs.
The support level is 0.9285 and resistance at 0.9400. My bias is BULLISH.<strong> </strong>

<strong>USD/JPY: Closing Price 107.37. </strong>I nearly had a nose bleed last week; I am considering going long the USD/JPY. By the time I had thought it through the damn pair had moved up 100+ pips. I do however have a limit order entry in place, as PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers are aware<strong>.
</strong>Support now is at 1.0680 and resistance at 1.0750. My bias is BULLISH.

<strong> </strong>
<ol start="8">
	<li><span style="font-size: 14pt;"><strong> MAJOR TRADING PAIRS WITH LONGER-TERM TRENDS MATCHING:</strong></span></li>
</ol>
The following currency pairs have Short Term (DAILY), Medium Term (WEEKLY) and Long Term (MONTHLY) charts all trending in the same direction.

<span style="font-size: 12pt;">LONG:</span>

USD/CAD
USD/JPY
CHF/JPY
EUR/JPY
GBP/JPY
USD/NOK
USD/SEK

<span style="font-size: 12pt;">SHORT:</span>

AUD/USD
NZD/USD
AUD/CAD

<strong> </strong>
<ol start="9">
	<li><span style="font-size: 14pt;"><strong> MAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:</strong></span></li>
</ol>
<strong> </strong>

SUNDAY: N/A.

MONDAY: AUD – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes.

TUESDAY: GBP – CPi.
TUESDAY: EUR – German ZEW Economic Sentiment.

WEDNESDAY: GBP – Employment Statistics and MPC Vote results.
WEDNESDAY: USD – Core CPi.
WEDNESDAY: USD – FOMC Statement &amp; Press Conference.
WEDNESDAY: NZD – GDP.

THURSDAY: CHF – Libor Rate and SNB Monetary Policy Statement.
THURSDAY: GBP – Scottish Independence Vote

FRIDAY: CAD – Core CPi and Wholesale Sales

<strong> </strong>

<strong> </strong>10<strong>. </strong><span style="font-size: 14pt;"><strong>FINAL THOUGHTS:</strong></span>

&nbsp;

There are some big news events on the horizon over the coming week.

I think that we should exercise a little caution ahead of these data releases. The FED is widely expected to change tone, but until you hear it from the horses mouth…. Believe nothing… do NOT anticipate.

Over the past three years of the WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU, I think I always close the blog with a be careful warning and I do this because there are always new readers.

It is so easy to get suckered into a Forex trade the wrong way and then when you exit it costs you money. It is always better in my opinion to take less profit but take profits more than losses and have more profitable trades. $$ in your trading account is always a motivation.

You will always read about traders making +300 or +450 pips on a trade, you never however hear of their loss trades, which I suspect will be of similar proportions or higher. My goal is an average of 50-90 pips a time given the present market conditions; in a directional market I can set larger goals. I would rather take a 50-pip profit and sell again on pullbacks to take another 50 pips or so. Remember there are two sides to each trade, my trades are published, good or bad ones…. My book is measurable each day/week/month.

Do not get suckered into believing something that is NOT actually there.

As I always say, no mater what type or style of trading we have, always, PLAN YOUR TRADES and TRADE YOUR PLAN regardless of market activity, in addition continue to exercise TRADING DISCIPLINE and do <strong>NOT</strong> FORCE TRADES as the chances are you run a much higher risk than normal of being caught out on the wrong side.

&nbsp;

Scott Pickering
The Pip Accumulator
Saturday September 13th 2014

EMAIL / FOLLOW ME AT:
premiumservice@weeklyfxdrivethru.com
Twitter: @pipaccumulator
Twitter: @ThePremService
Google+/scottpickering

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