<strong> </strong>
<ol>
	<li><strong> INTRODUCTION:</strong></li>
</ol>
Am I the only trader who feels like he is on a roller coaster ride?

I must be, all my twitter feeds seem to show everyone is making heaps of $$$, getting in at the top and getting out pretty much at the bottom. How do they do this? Not wanting to sound like Donald Trump but are they all lyin’ Ted’s!

You are not alone if you are on the same roller coaster as me. It is real and it’s all about adjusting and surviving!

I am trading exactly the way that I have been doing for the past 5 years out of my 8 years of trading and I feel like I am being beaten up virtually every time I enter a trade, well at least it feels that way.

At the end of last month (February) all my 2016 pip gains were wiped out, following a combination of BREXIT fears and ice-storms that gave huge power outages in the area that I live in, 36 hours plus of connection issues. No power, no ISP’s, generators iced up and no cell phone coverage apart from emergency calls to 911.

This year’s month-by-month pips are below and they are cumulative:
<p style="text-align: center;">+1,399 pips on the 31<sup>st</sup> January 2016
to
-132 pips on the 29<sup>th</sup> February 2016
and now to
+1,710 pips on the 31<sup>st</sup> March 2016</p>
It sounds great but I feel that I am struggling. I am making pips but Holy Mother of God it’s just trying to keep your head above the water at times.

I am more of a POSITION style trader than anything else and examining my trades, my longer-term PART-TIME TRADER trades are doing great. My RADAR trades are OK, but my FLASH trades are struggling. These are trades directly linked to the market chop!

FUNDAMENTAL trades were the ones that suffered in February and in March I recovered more than 25% of the pain suffered in February, so I am happy about this fact.

It is the market chop that is eating me up and quite frankly I do not believe the lyin’ Ted’s on twitter are not affected.

What do I do?

Only trade my trades with a longer-term perspective, would seem a reasonable suggestion.

I am trying to give profitable trades air to breathe. I am probably guilty of not cutting out the loss making trades fast enough, although when I have cut them they spike up within minutes, and my losses taken could have in fact been profits. I am cutting position sizes, moving stops to ensure that my RISK EXPOSURE is maintained within my TRADING PLAN limits. I am still selling into strength buying pullbacks and the chop has been killing me.

I hear you saying several things.
<ul>
	<li>Do not move your stops.</li>
	<li>Just take 20-30 pips here and there and forget about measured moves</li>
	<li>Forget about Fibonacci targets and levels.</li>
	<li>Forget about Pivot Points.</li>
</ul>
They all sound creditable in their own way to some extent.

Action, clarification and ideas bouncing was required so I decided to arrange an emergency SKYPE call with my peer group.

I have known these guys/gal for a few years now and usually once a month we have a conference call about all matters Forex. The group consists of an “Elliot Wave Trader” (I still don't get it), an ex. Bank long-term trader (longer than my perspective), a female “Swinger” (Swing Trader) and myself (The Scoucer).

Setting the meeting, I was in control. My arse I was… within 10 seconds of establishing that all parties could hear each other, all I could hear was bitching about how bloody awful the market was and that when trying to establish positions it was basically a chop fest.

Yep…. Other traders, traders I know tell the truth, traders who have been around for a while, like me lost it all, got it back, suffered like hell and then experienced a hallelujah moment, these guys tell it as it is.

So… twitter is full of sh*t. For the past four / five months I have hardly been on twitter with @pipaccumulator, because frankly I was sick to the back teeth of hearing how fecking wonderful it was in the Forex markets. Granted, there will be a few who have great trades, I have had great trades but my core FLASH “bread and butter” trades have been suffering in the chop!!

In summary…

I now know that I have NOT been losing my mind and, in addition, my thoughts about twitter are confirmed. There are some real numpties out there that have allegedly never lost money on trades. I keep deleting these from my following lists but somehow more appear, WTF. More importantly, my sanity remains intact.

If you have been struggling in the 2016 chop fest, you are NOT alone… I am in there with you.

Almost finally, in this section, just to remind you; you could be the next winner of a free PREMIUM SERVICE (SILVER) subscription; if you subscribe to receive this free blog via my website <a href="http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>

You are automatically entered into a free monthly draw, once you’ve subscribed. Each month during 2016 one lucky blog subscriber will receive a free subscription to the PREMIUM SERVICE (SILVER).

Finally, I am on tour… t-shirts are being printed (joke).

I am going to the UK and IRELAND as mentioned last week to present myself and what the PREMIUM SERVICE can do for you regardless of what stage / level of trader you are. More about this as the dates come closer but below is an excel sheet with the tour schedule.

Spaces are limited so to register for an event, please go to my landing page on <a href="http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> and click on LIVE EVENTS. The drop down menu there has all the information that you will require. I would place it here but I would end up getting thousand’s of SPAM emails, which I want to avoid.

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/upcoming-live-events-seminars-training/tour-dates-2016/" rel="attachment wp-att-7522"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-7522" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/TOUR-DATES-2016.png" alt="TOUR DATES 2016" width="624" height="397" /></a><strong> </strong>
<ol start="2">
	<li><strong> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</strong></li>
</ol>
<u>WHAT IS THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</u>

The PREMIUM SERVICE is a subscriber, fee based trade set-up option for Forex traders regardless of experience or background. I provide traders suggested trades, and some market commentary related to open trades or factors within the overall market that have my interest.

Full details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and the various trade styles plus how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at <a href="http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> by selecting THE PREMIUM SERVICE tab.

Additional information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs. To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE you will require a PayPal account.

<u>PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION COSTS:</u>

Details of features and benefits of SILVER &amp; GOLD subscriptions can be found on my website landing page at <a href="http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> under the drop down tab at the top of the page entitled PREMIUM SERVICE.

I will be making changes within the next 30 days, to subscription options and costs. Details will appear here and on my website once the changes are ready to launch.

The current subscription costs are as follows: -

PREMIUM SERVICE (SILVER):
USD$100.00 every 4 weeks.

PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD):

USD$295.00 10 weeks (3 months)
USD$495.00 20 weeks (6 months)
USD$795.00 40 weeks (12 months)

I work for 40 weeks or so a year, the annual subscription is based on 40 published blogs of the WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU. For the remaining 12 weeks in the year, I am usually around tweeting and managing existing LIVE trades.

<u>PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE THIS MONTH &amp; YEAR TO DATE:</u>
<p style="text-align: center;">NET PIPS THIS MONTH SO FAR:            +1,710
NET PIPS THIS YEAR SO FAR:                +1,578</p>
<p style="text-align: center;">NET PIPS 2015        +10,686
NET PIPS 2014        +11,209</p>
(I trade basically for 10 months a year. I do not trade from mid July through early September or mid December through early January).

If you want more data or detail about the performance and the tabs on my website landing page do not answer your questions, contact me directly and I will supply the trading data you require. There are NO secrets. There are many, many spreadsheets detailing performance trade by trade and by trade and by trading style, way too many to place in this blog. If you are interested in the PREMIUM SERVICE and want more information, all you have to do is ask.

<u>PREMIUM SERVICE – PART TIME TRADERS:</u>

The article below has just been updated on my website. I placed the initial article on my website at the end of 2015 to launch PART-TIME TRADER trades, which from April 4<sup>th</sup> 2016 will now be called POSITION trades.

The piece is self explanatory, basically, after completing Q1 2016, I wanted to review progress with this style of trade against the projection I published at the launch.

The full version of the history of PART-TIME TRADER trades (now POSITION TRADES) can be found by clicking on my website at <a href="http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>

On my landing page at the top there is tab titled PART-TIME FOREX (POSITION) TRADERS, if you select this the complete article is there. Below is just the Q1 addition to the original piece.

&nbsp;
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>ARE YOU A PART-TIME FOREX TRADER
or
WOULD YOU LIKE TO ADD ANOTHER INCOME STREAM TO YOUR
HOUSEHOLD INCOME?</strong></p>
We are almost three months into 2016 trading and I thought that it would be a great idea to review the performance of my new trading category, that was launched in January this year; PART-TIME TRADER TRADES.

Before getting into the “nitty gritty” of projected numbers versus actual performance, I thought I should offer an overview to date.

This year trading has not been as clear-cut as I had hoped for. The divergent trade, which frankly launched this idea of the new trade set-up category, has not been as visible as I had hoped. In fact, there have been clear examples of central bank policy direction being ignored (BOJ and ECB). Coupled with some major geopolitical uncertainties, I have not had the confidence to let trades run as I had originally intended and I have cut trades short, mostly at the time they were profitable to bank $$$.

Moving forward, I do see the divergent trade re-appearing because frankly, nothing has fundamentally changed. The FED is still progressing with monetary policy, that is, raising rates when the two other large central banks the ECB and BOJ are still easing with monetary policy through a long term quantitative easing program. From this perspective nothing has changed.

However, one thing that I do want to change is the name given to these suggested trade set-ups moving forward. From April 4<sup>th</sup> 2016 they will be renamed as POSITION TRADES and no longer PART-TIME TRADER TRADES. They will now carry the prefix POS as suggested set-ups are posted to subscribers of the PREMIUM SERVICE.

Below is the PROJECTED PERFORMANCE versus the ACTUAL for Q1 2016. I have added a short commentary / summary on the chart and in the few short comments at the foot of the excel sheet.

I am really pleased with this category of trade set-up. It has been by far my most successful trading style this year so far. This does make some sense in the fact that for most of this year I have been talking in my blogs and writing <strong>on </strong>Twitter about how choppy the markets have been and because of geopolitical uncertainties it has on many occasions been quite difficult to trade.

The actual performance for Q1 is in BLUE and the original projection is in BLACK. I have made no amendments to the original data.

Roll on Q2 if it is half as good as Q1 there will be both pips and $$$$!!

<strong> <a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/part-time-forex-traders/position-trades-q1v2016-31032016/" rel="attachment wp-att-7519"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-7519" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/POSITION-TRADES-Q1v2016-31032016.png" alt="POSITION TRADES Q1v2016 31032016" width="767" height="587" /></a></strong>

<strong> </strong>
<ol start="3">
	<li><strong> THE FX MARKET PLACE:</strong></li>
</ol>
<strong>LAST WEEK’S NEWS – MY THOUGHTS:</strong>

So often when Non Farm Payrolls feature in the economic data releases for a week everything else pales into insignificance.

As far as I am concerned, this was the point last week with one exception. After the Easter holiday break on Tuesday, Janet Yellen spoke.

It was a turning point. Yellen delivered a DOVISH speech and the USD was whacked and it was continually whacked up to NFP data release.

Personally, I think just like the FED missed the moment in 2015 by raising in December, primarily so as not to lose face, they should have done it in July or September and December in my opinion.

Last week Yellen, basically ruled out April, although the NFP data is good enough to hike. She has probably ruled out June because of the BREXIT fears in the UK.

I show the weekly USD index (DXY) chart below. As you can see there is a bearish engulfing weekly candle. This could spell some more USD weakness at the start of this week, but the USD is well oversold at this point and we should at least be prepared for a possible bounce as we approach key support. If that support gives way at 93.15 all hell will break loose.

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/move-mario-haruhido-janet-balls/dxy-weekly-chart-02042016/" rel="attachment wp-att-7553"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-7553" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/DXY-WEEKLY-CHART-02042016-1024x481.png" alt="DXY WEEKLY CHART 02042016" width="1024" height="481" /></a>

&nbsp;

Referring back to my peer group from the introduction, my ex Banker chappie, is quite adamant that what he calls “Value Buyers” should emerge before that level buying up a reverse move towards 96.00 and beyond.
<p style="text-align: center;">So in recap…</p>
<p style="text-align: center;">Yellen was DOVISH…</p>
<p style="text-align: center;">The USD got whacked…Tony Soprano style
and, by the way
NFP delivered great numbers
Change was 215,000 versus expectations of 206,000
Average Hourly Rates up 0.3% expectations 0.2%
Unemployment Rate ticked up from 4.9% to 5.0%
plus
ISM Manufacturing PMi beat 50.8 expectations at 51.8%</p>
I still refer back to my blog from weeks ago, with the U.S. being the biggest economy in the world where we are constantly being told is in great shape, strong and resilient making excellent progress can’t stomach a 0.25% rate rise?

Go figure that, because I think it’s mental.

A 0.25% rise will not affect Main Street in my opinion, just Wall Street and therein lies the issue…

The market makers want zirp (0% for infinity). Janet Yellen must be scared shi*less if she cannot push through 0.25% now because it will be autumn (fall) before the next window comes around given the BREXIT situation and its potential effect on de-stabilizing the financial markets given London’s position.

She needs more than 0.25% behind the clock in case of a potential recession ahead. I think at least 1.00% by the end of 2016 is a minimum. I just cannot see that happening.

What a fragile economy the U.S. must be, or is it driven by pressure groups and lobbyists at the highest level?

At least that was a month and quarter end out of the way, that's one way to view last week.

<strong> </strong>

<strong>WHAT’S BIG ON MY MIND:</strong>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>MOVE OVER MARIO and HARUHIDO… JANET HAS THE BALLS!</strong></p>
If Janet Yellen was a bloke she would have really big balls. The last woman who would have had balls of steel was Margaret Thatcher.

Don’t get me wrong Janet Yellen is not in that league (yet) but she does pack a powerful punch.

The ECB and BOJ failed recently to intervene in the markets and drive prices they way they want. With regards to Draghi had he not said “and that’s it” things may have been different but essentially it is what it is, or rather it was what it was. Both central bank presidents failed to get the buy in from the financial markets to their changes in monetary policy.

Looking at Janet Yellen, she essentially gave Wall Street a rate cut without changing macro level monetary FED policy. That demonstrates without any contradiction the power of a central bank. In fact, most of us traders have grown up with this belief implanted into our brains.

Fair play Janet Yellen stood there; she knew exactly the effect her words would have. She gave Wall Street what it wanted.

But did she?

The constant stream of guests on BLOOMBERG and CNBC still rabbit on about uncertainty, dots, four rates hikes, two rate hikes, three rate hikes, no rate hikes…. Stop… give me time to draw breath and think.

I wrote a few weeks ago about the FED’s dot plots on graphs being great to assure markets of continued support, but when trying to normalize it’s way too rigid. The FED is held to ransom over dots placed on bits of paper that can be months old.

I just don’t get it; the Fed wants to normalize and yet the dithering is unbelievable for just 0.25%.

Forget about emerging markets; forget about the rest of the world. They all know interest rates in the US are going up, end of story. The Forex market is a future pricing mechanism, most of it is priced in, all that Janet Yellen does by dithering is create uncertainty. Markets do NOT like uncertainty.

I always come back to the same position having gone around and around.
<ul>
	<li>Everyone knows the FED has changed its monetary policy position.</li>
	<li>The world is expecting interest rate increases.</li>
	<li>Data is relatively good.</li>
	<li>The average hourlies from NFP will show that there is some inflation in the works.</li>
	<li>Why are interest rate increases not happening?</li>
	<li>What does the FED see that we do not?</li>
	<li>Why the dithering?</li>
	<li>We are only talking about 0.25% and that will not affect Main Street.</li>
</ul>
I can assume Wall Street pressure is influencing the supposedly impartial FED; am I right?

What is Wall Street frightened of…. hard work?

Janet Yellen just gave Wall Street by being so DOVISH, more uncertainty. Sure they grabbed the speech content made a few $$$ but are they any the wiser?

As mentioned, we now have increased uncertainty about interest rate hikes on our TV screens.

Frankly, I am finding all of this rather strange.

We have BREXIT fears, a circus of a presidential election campaign, with a bunch of candidates I wouldn’t hire, a FED chair that dithers and bunch of Central bank governors/presidents dotted about the globe, who right now are about as useful as a chocolate teapot in establishing monetary policy

The FED can still control and direct the market based upon commentary; but is it effective?

Only time will tell. Janet Yellen certainly packs a punch, for now at least, but I do think that she is missing another moment.

<strong> </strong>
<ol start="4">
	<li><strong> PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) EXCLUSIVE CONTENT:</strong></li>
</ol>
(This area contains exclusive content for PREMIUM SERVICE (GOLD) subscribers)

<strong> </strong>
<ol start="5">
	<li><strong> COMING UP THIS WEEK:</strong><strong> </strong></li>
</ol>
<u>THIS WEEK’S FOREX NEWS THAT INTERESTS ME:</u>

(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market other than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to <a href="http://www.forexfactory.com">www.forexfactory.com</a> and <a href="http://www.tradingeconomics.com">www.tradingeconomics.com</a> for a more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).
SUNDAY: AUD – Building Approvals &amp; Retail Sales.

MONDAY: AUD – Trade Balance.

TUESDAY: AUD – RBA Interest Rate Statement.
TUESDAY: CAD – Trade Balance.
TUESDAY: NZD – GDT Prices.

WEDNESDAY: USD – FOMC Meeting Minutes.

THURSDAY: EUR – Mario Draghi (ECB) gives us words of wisdom.
THURSDAY: USD – Janet Yellen (FED) gives us words of wisdom.

FRIDAY: CAD – Unemployment Data.

<strong> </strong>

<u>THE USD MAJORS – MY THOUGHTS (A REVIEW): </u>

(In this section I have as usual kept my charts as minimalist as possible. With regards to charting in my opinion less is more!! I hope that they are clear. All readers regardless of level of experience should be able to follow my thoughts from my comments to the levels on the charts with ease)

My comments are contained on the charts. If you have difficulty getting them to expand please let me know. Sometimes word press is difficult.

EUR/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.1393

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/move-mario-haruhido-janet-balls/eurusd-daily-02042016/" rel="attachment wp-att-7557"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-7557" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/EURUSD-DAILY-02042016-1024x509.png" alt="EURUSD DAILY 02042016" width="1024" height="509" /></a>

GBP/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.4225

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/move-mario-haruhido-janet-balls/gbpusd-daily-02042016/" rel="attachment wp-att-7558"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-7558" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/GBPUSD-DAILY-02042016-1024x509.png" alt="GBPUSD DAILY 02042016" width="1024" height="509" /></a>

AUD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.7680

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/move-mario-haruhido-janet-balls/audusd-daily-02042016/" rel="attachment wp-att-7556"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-7556" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/AUDUSD-DAILY-02042016-1024x509.png" alt="AUDUSD DAILY 02042016" width="1024" height="509" /></a>

NZD/USD - Weekly Closing Price: 0.6899

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/move-mario-haruhido-janet-balls/nzdusd-daily-02042016/" rel="attachment wp-att-7559"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-7559" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/NZDUSD-DAILY-02042016-1024x509.png" alt="NZDUSD DAILY 02042016" width="1024" height="509" /></a>

USD/CAD - Weekly Closing Price: 1.3010

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/move-mario-haruhido-janet-balls/usdcad-daily-02042016/" rel="attachment wp-att-7560"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-7560" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/USDCAD-DAILY-02042016-1024x509.png" alt="USDCAD DAILY 02042016" width="1024" height="509" /></a>

USD/CHF - Weekly Closing Price: 0.9574

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/move-mario-haruhido-janet-balls/usdchf-daily-02042016/" rel="attachment wp-att-7561"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-7561" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/USDCHF-DAILY-02042016-1024x509.png" alt="USDCHF DAILY 02042016" width="1024" height="509" /></a>

USD/JPY - Weekly Closing Price: 111.60

<u><a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/member_posts/move-mario-haruhido-janet-balls/usdjpy-daily-02042016/" rel="attachment wp-att-7562"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-7562" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/USDJPY-DAILY-02042016-1024x509.png" alt="USDJPY DAILY 02042016" width="1024" height="509" /></a></u>

<u> </u>

<u> </u>

<u>MY CLOSING THOUGHTS:</u>

This week we appear to be “down under” as we say for most of the big data. The Aussies have it this week; the RBA, Retail Sales, Building Approvals and Trade Balance numbers.

Draghi and Yellen speak on Thursday; God only knows what they are going to add now?

The Canadian data, Jobs and Trade balance will be interesting to follow as the boy’s (Trudeau’s) recent budget passed off as bit of a whimper at the end of the day. I can see Stephen Poloz (BOC) finally being forced to grab the issue and bolster the Canadian economy sooner rather than later. Now that the snow is clearing away (finally), I think that the BOC will act. So this data, this week, will be interesting to digest.

As always, be savvy…

Always remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.

Take care,

Scott Pickering
The Pip Accumulator
<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/">https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>

DATE: 2<sup>nd</sup> April 2016
BLOG REFERENCE: #195 FREE NEWSLETTER

&nbsp;