&nbsp;
<ol>
 	<li><span style="font-size: 14pt;"><strong>THE FIRST SHOT:</strong></span></li>
</ol>
Welcome to the new look FREE NEWSLETTER version of the WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU blog.

It is now more compact befitting a complimentary version of my market commentary blog post.

If you would like a more detailed commentary of my market thoughts, views, including my suggested trade set ups you will need to subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE. This leads nicely into my subscriber promotion which ends this coming Wednesday at 5PM EST.

“BUY ONE GET ONE FREE”

With a new trading year just started, there is another target of 10,000 pips for me to beat in 2018. I have launched a PREMIUM SERVICE promotion called, “BUY ONE GET ONE FREE”.

The details of the “BUY ONE GET ONE FREE” promotion can be found on my home page under the TAB “PROMOTIONS”.

I would point out that with the PROMOTION for CAD$800.00 you will have a one year’s complete subscription and hopefully be part of the 10,000 pips haul this year.

So far this year before the first month has completed the pips total to date is <strong><u>1,453</u></strong>. This represents more than 14% of the annual objective!

<strong> </strong>
<ol start="2">
 	<li><span style="font-size: 14pt;"><strong> MARKET OVERVIEW – MY THOUGHTS:</strong></span></li>
</ol>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14pt;">FEAR, GREED &amp; FOMO but watch JPY</span>
</strong></p>
Where to start?

Since starting to write FX related blogs in 2011, many people have said it’s all about the title, be out there, grab potential readers by the balls, give them a hook. I can guarantee you that this works. The two most read blogs since 2011 being the recent: -
<p style="text-align: center;">“OOPS I DID IT AGAIN…TRUMP SENDS THE USD DOWN THE SH*THOLE”
followed closely by
“MERKEL GRABS DRAGHI BY THE TESTICLES”</p>
Whilst both of these blogs had extreme titles that sucked in potential readers they also had valid FX points I wanted to get across.

Where am I going?

In this new format, I will use this section to make readers who are not subscribers think maybe this guy has ideas, thoughts, beliefs, and views and is a bit outside the box.

Here we go…

Mario Draghi’s “BIG DAY OUT” came and went last Thursday. He was on somewhat of a “MISSION IMPOSSIBLE”, on the basis that, faced with improving economic data in the EUROZONE, he was on very thin ice, in any attempts he thought he may have had of trying, to jawbone the single currency lower.

Being fair to Draghi, he said what he could have said without sounding too accommodative. The market did its own thing. Despite what was said, or what was handed out as copy of the statement, the market knows best. The basics of FEAR &amp; GREED in FX are being displayed every second, of every minute, of every hour of every trading day.

We have had a FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) markets in equities for some time. The “BUY THE DIP” mentality is so entrenched in Wall Street, there are people working across the floors and in front of terminals who do not know about or have not worked in two-way markets. They have only read about it in books or heard about it in pubs on a Friday night when some old fecker talks about the good old days.

FX now has FOMO.

The constant USD selling has been insatiable. Going back to my economics days with regards to the indifference curve. We do not have a rationality in the market place and we have reached a state of non-satiety, which basically means the consumer cannot get enough of something even though it is over-supplied. In FX terms the USD. There is so much available the FOMO effect is like a rash.

We saw it in evidence after Draghi last Thursday.

Going backwards 24 hours pre- Draghi, U.S. Secretary Mnuchin basically, stated that he was in favour of a weaker USD, the markets loved it, sell more USD, sell more USD, it was a feeding frenzy at the zoo. Bit of a fu*k up from Mnuchin, these are things as U.S. Secretary to the Treasury you think and want but one keeps one’s gob shut.

After Draghi, 24 hours after Mnuchin’s comments, TRUMP went on CNBC and said that he was misinterpreted and that he (TRUMP) was in favour of a strong dollar and that it would get stronger. Thank God smelly vision has not yet been invented. Someone in CNBC should have been dialing 911 or 999 as the president’s knickers were burning on the back of this statement.

The upshot of this was a 2-3 hour USD rally, a huge snap back 200-250 pips in some cases. Then the market traits of FEAR and GREED took over once again and the FOMO effect kicked in.

However, the USD gains were reversed in the next two trading sessions in Asia and Europe, by the time US traders came back to their seats the USD gains were wiped clean.

How do you trade in a FOMO market?

I am NOT a scalper. I am NOT a short-term trader, but from time to time I will dabble, with mixed results.

If you are in a position and the train leaves the station stay on board, getting off really means from my TRADE PLAN that you can’t get back on, because we do not get pullbacks of any meaning, because they are very shallow. From a Fibonacci perspective a minimum in my TRADE PLAN is 38%. We do not even see a 23.6% pullback in these FOMO markets at the moment.

In my view, without sounding like a DRAMA QUEEN, jumping on board with some of these trades without a plan using or strategic entry is just gambling.

It is a pure one-way market, but with experience I know that the snap back could happen at any time and when it does it will be vicious, screen time has taught me this lesson. One requires patience.

One always looks for a catalyst of some sort. FX INTERVENTION, A CENTRAL BANK POLICY CHANGE or maybe A SELL OFF IN STOCKS.

My money is on the final one listed. Correlations in markets matter and they do count.

The JPY is NOT playing ball at the moment. As the US equities rise the USD/JPY should weaken, it’s getting stronger. It is also not reacting to US treasury yields either.

Last Friday the DOW, S&amp;P and NASDAQ were posting record closes once again, OIL was a little elevated, metals were negative and US 10YR yields were up again.

The USD/JPY posted another low now sitting below 109.00.

Can you imagine what is going to happen to the JPY when there is alleged bad news in the markets if it cannot go up when times are good?

The USD/JPY has 105.00 written all over it if we get a major, major sell-off and if FEAR, GREED &amp; FOMO take effect maybe even lower.

I know that may FX traders are gamblers, you win some, you lose some. But being patient and having a PLAN a STRATEGY also works and this can be done without as much RISK.

Make absolutely no mistake these moves are just crazy and in 10 years of trading I have never seen anything like it.

What to do now?

I have talked about the USD/JPY. The EUR/USD is heading higher, I think that we all get that, but it will NOT be a straight line move.

Therefore, the EUR/USD and probably many of the EUR cross rates pairs are “BUY ON THE DIPS” opportunities.

I think that we will have, or let me say, we SHOULD HAVE a period of consolidation. Recent moves have been crazy in the USD majors. It has been a one-sided market, impossible to enter on pullbacks. To me, consolidation makes absolute sense.

&nbsp;
<ol start="3">
 	<li><span style="font-size: 14pt;"><strong>USD SUPPORT and RESISTANCE with my BIAS:</strong></span></li>
</ol>
<strong> </strong>

<strong><a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/TCHART-27012018.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-10865" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/TCHART-27012018-1024x890.png" alt="" width="1024" height="890" /></a> </strong>

<strong> </strong>
<ol start="4">
 	<li><span style="font-size: 14pt;"><strong>THE PREMIUM SERVICE TRADING SUMMARY:</strong></span></li>
</ol>
PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:
(Incorporating the last 5 PREMIUM SERVICE TRADES)

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/PREM-SERV-LAST5-27012018.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-10864" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/PREM-SERV-LAST5-27012018-1024x854.png" alt="" width="1024" height="854" /></a>

&nbsp;
<ol start="5">
 	<li><strong><span style="font-size: 14pt;">PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS:</span>
</strong>(This section is for PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS ONLY)</li>
</ol>
<u>
THE BLOG CHANGES and WHY:</u>

The FREE NEWSLETTER is now STRIPPED.

The reason for this is very simply time. The production time to research, complete, verify and publish had become a very time-consuming affair taking up huge amounts of time on Fridays and Saturdays. If I were to place a total time from beginning to end per blog I would think in the region of 8-9 hours a weekend.

Basically, it’s too much time and the changes needed to be made.

I have removed Chart patterns, thoughts on the market, looking backwards and forwards, my thoughts on how to trade this coming week, together with the USD major charts and currency pair thoughts because PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers receive all of these through the week as it progresses. Therefore, it was duplication of effort.

The Economic Data and the looking forward items fits better with subscribers only and so they have moved into the subscribers only area.

This revised version will, I hope, free up more time to focus on analyst reports and more chart analysis, which benefits all of us.

&nbsp;

<u>5.1. TRADING REVIEW:</u>

The net pip total so far for 2018 = <strong>1,453 pips.<u>
</u></strong>

With this high total of pips, you may find this next statement a little confusing. This market is very hard to trade, very hard to follow, very hard to fathom and most of all bloody difficult to understand many of the moves that have taken place especially in the last two weeks or so.

One of my three goals last week was to set up JPY POSITION trades. The BOJ has committed to being DOVISH to basically infinity and possibly beyond!

As you know Central Bank Monetary Policy is a pre-requisite to my directional longer-term trades through POSITION trade set ups and therefore JPY trades will not apply. However, I am looking at several fundamental factors still such as: -

Persistent USD selling (weakness)
U.S. Bond Yields
Precious Metals
Oil
Central Bank Monetary Policy
Equity Prices
Inter-Market correlations

The USD/JPY has NOT correlated with Bond Yields / Equities, so I am assuming that when (and they will at some time) change direction the USD/JPY is going to have a “BAD DAY” at the office. If Sentiment and Fundamentals really change the USD/JPY back at 100.00 is NOT out of the question in my opinion.

So, the JPY is still on my RADAR just not with a series of POSITION TRADES.

I will review the EUR to the long side and start to place EUR related trades following Mario Draghi’s Press Conference

Successes last week were mainly from cross rates once again. Keeping away as far as possible from USD related trades is the way to go. It is hard because that is where liquidity and two-way action lies but it is a success to keep moving with.

This market has been so one-sided these past couple of weeks or so that when the consolidation period starts it will hopefully bring both buyers and sellers out to play at the same time.

The TRUMP move last Thursday sending the USD higher was impressive but the DXY sell-off thru the Asian and European sessions was scary. All the previous daily closing candles ignored. It just showed how much core momentum is in the market to drive the DXY lower. Despite TRUMP intervention, the desire to hold USD is non-existent. When you add the FED Monetary Policy into the mix, it is hard to comprehend given the positions of the BOJ and ECB.

I have found myself sidelined a great deal, basically just clocking up “screen time”. Opportunities that meet my TRADE PLAN are fewer. Patience really is a virtue in FX. Trading sure is fun!

<u>
</u><u>5.2. SENTIMENT,</u><u> FUNDAMENTAL &amp; MACRO THOUGHTS</u><u>:
</u>

From a strategy perspective I am clear on what I want to focus on for the remainder of Q1 and into Q2, beyond that it gets a wee bit fuzzy.

Let me clarify: -
<ol>
 	<li>I am still fundamentally a seller of NZD and CAD currencies. I see this as a trade for most of 2018</li>
 	<li>I will start building JPY trades around JPY strength based on factors outlined above in section 5.1. Will these last beyond Q2?</li>
 	<li>I will start to build long EUR trades. This is a difficult one time wise given the fact that the ECB policy should at some stage curtail the long EUR trade enthusiasm that seems to have covered the FX market like a rash of late.</li>
 	<li>Once I can see the BREXIT negotiations moving forward I will add more GBP trades in Q2 and Q3. I do see a 1.5000 objective. By the time I participate with GBP/USD will be soon be there, but I am benefitting from cross rate trades at the moment.</li>
</ol>
CAUTION: We have seen some monster moves recently based off USD weakness; i.e. a 600 pip move higher in cable. These huge pip moves were similar with EUR and AUD as well.

These huge price moves have to both consolidate and re-trace and these will be the basis of many entries that I have in mind for POSITION TRADES, but first I need to note the high levels from where to plot my retracements. This is one reason why there are no LIMIT ORDERS in position at the moment.

A massive amount of chart analysis completed last weekend was dumped as I did NOT get what I wanted from the market. This is the nature of the beast, but it is very frustrating.

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/SENTIMENT-27012018.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-10866" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/SENTIMENT-27012018-780x1024.png" alt="" width="780" height="1024" /></a>

&nbsp;

<u>5.3. THE WEEK AHEAD:</u>

<u>5.3.1. ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES THAT INTEREST ME:</u>

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/ECON-DATA-27012018.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-10884" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/ECON-DATA-27012018-1024x922.png" alt="" width="1024" height="922" /></a>

&nbsp;

<u>5.3.2. MY KEY EVENTS ON THIS WEEK’S CALENDAR:</u>

In no particular order: -.

<u>GBP - CARNEY:</u> It is always fun, never a dull moment to watch Carney in action. He has recently made comments outside of his job scope vis-à-vis the UK falling behind, economically and having its voice heard in financial markets post BREXIT. That would have gone down really well in the CITY. Whilst it is impossible to predict a POST BREXIT UK and how it will operate. I think that it is a pretty safe bet given its position that the UK will remain a world financial centre. Let’s see what he says. Hopefully he will have his JCB close by his side.

<u>CAD – GDP:</u> This will be a real indicator albeit backward looking as to whether the BOC will face reality and start factoring in more interest rate hikes. Stephen Poloz has stated that the BOC is DATA DEPENDENT only.

<u>USD – CONSUMER CONFIDENCE:</u>  I am not that fussed about US employment data and the FOMC for Janet Yellen’s last statement. I am more interested in the U.S. man and woman on the street. Are they spending money? It is the enthusiasm Wall Street based or has it filtered down to Main Street as well?

&nbsp;

<u>5.3.3. HOW I WILL APPROACH and TRADE THE MARKET THIS WEEK:</u>

This coming week, we have US employment data and the FED (FOMC). These events will gather all the headlines, plus TRUMP’S STATE OF THE NATION ADDRESS, which will be loved by Republicans and hated by Democrats. There’s is a prediction for you!

I am expecting consolidation this week, at least in the early part of the week. It will great to see if we can achieve market moves of economic data this week and news headlines for a change.

My micro and macro approach this week will be the JPY. I know this will please my two Asian groups who applaud when I put out a JPY set up!

Do NOT expect a vast quantity of set ups, I do not like spreading myself thin in a week that contains NFP.

Trade sizes will remain smaller and my primary focus will be JPY and CAD pairs.

&nbsp;

<u>
</u><u>5.3.4. MY “MACRO” TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEK AHEAD:</u>

My action plan for the week is: -
<ol>
 	<li>Prepare and post out as many of my longer-term POSITION TRADE limit orders in the early stages of the week, markets permitting.</li>
 	<li>Add EUR long into my TRADE PLAN strategy following the ECB this Thursday.</li>
 	<li>Continue to coordinate my strategy into my TRADE PLAN vis-à-vis the JPY. This is now very much a tradable currency in 2018. For me it is similar to Lazarus coming back from the dead.</li>
</ol>
&nbsp;

<u>5.4 SUMMARY - LONG TERM CORE TRADES:</u>

&nbsp;

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/LT-CORE-POS-20012018.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-10859" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/LT-CORE-POS-20012018-1024x951.png" alt="" width="1024" height="951" /></a>

&nbsp;

<u>5.5. CURRENT LIVE TRADES &amp; LIMIT ORDERS:</u>

&nbsp;

<u>5.5.1. CURRENT LIVE TRADES:

</u>

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/LIVE-TRADES-27012018.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-10867" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/LIVE-TRADES-27012018-1024x1017.png" alt="" width="1024" height="1017" /></a>

<u>5.5.2. CURRENT LIMIT ORDER TRADES:</u>

There are zero at the moment.

&nbsp;

<u>5.6. FX BROKER NEWS and MARKET FEEDBACK:</u>

Nothing to add here. They were all very quiet last week, with me anyhow.

<strong> </strong>
<ol start="6">
 	<li><span style="font-size: 14pt;"><strong>THE FINAL SHOT:</strong></span></li>
</ol>
Nothing more to add here, I have said enough except,

As usual…

Always remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.

&nbsp;

Scott Pickering

The Pip Accumulator
Twitter: @ThePremService

<a href="http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/">http://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/</a>

BLOG VERSION: #163 PREMIUM SERVICE
DATE: 27th January 2018