<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>THE PREMIUM SERVICE
</strong><strong>The Home of Single-Lot Trading
www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</strong></p>
<strong>DATE: 10.05.2015
REFERENCE: #152
</strong><strong>BLOG: THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU</strong>

&nbsp;
<ol>
	<li><strong> INTRODUCTION - MY OVERVIEW OF THE FOREX MARKET:</strong></li>
</ol>
<u>LOOKING BACKWARDS, FORWARDS &amp; SIDEWAYS (FOR GOOD MEASURE) AT THE FX MARKET:</u>

<u>1.1 - LOOKING BACKWARDS:</u>

I wrote last week about the USD index, and question is it too early to write off the USD.

In my opinion the jury is still out, however, I am starting to “wobble a little” on the DXY. It really needs to show its teeth prior to the FED hiking U.S. interest rates, which could now be in September / October.

We had a very interesting week in the Forex market last week, but in my opinion two events stood out from the rest.

<u>RBA RATE STATEMENT:</u>

In the wee hours of Tuesday morning (EDT) last week, the RBA cut interest rates by 0.25% to record lows for Australia. To celebrate this fact, those bloody Aussies sent the AUD/USD higher instead of lower on the back of the rate cut. This directional anomaly was based on the fact that Glenn Stevens basically stated that after this rate cut the RBA was moving policy to neutral…”no more cuts”… bugger.

The AUD/USD rallied to 0.8000, I am still trying to work out when I got up the next morning why I didn’t short it from those highs. In any event another central bank has stated “no more” with regards to further interest rate cuts. As the Irish would say, with their well known double negative statement…. “Yeah right!” and with my Liverpool sense of humour, I would add “Yeah right my ar*e!”.

We are in a currency war. Central Bank governors want their exchange rates lower to remain competitive; they know that they just cannot achieve their target exchange rates by jawboning alone. Rate cuts will continue to feature.

In my opinion the commodity based countries in general not just Australia have it the hardest when there is little worldwide consumer demand. It is all very well having low inflation, but growth is required, and, many countries face potential housing bubbles just to make matters more interesting, so cutting rates can fuel the housing bubbles. It is a fine line. Is a housing bubble a risk worth taking? We will soon find out.

<u>UK GENERAL ELECTION:</u>

Wow.

I got it completely wrong; in fact, I have not seen a single review of the expected result that said that the Conservatives would win with an overall majority.

The BBC and SKY NEWS exit polls were released at the daily open/close cross-over at 5.00PM (EDT) last Thursday. I was stuffed with my GBP/JPY and GBP/USD shorts that were open at the time. I had a number of SELL STOP orders in position as well, which I cancelled straight away as I absorbed the news.

It has been a long, long time since I can recall so many opinion polls running up to voting day that were in almost complete agreement as to the outcome. They all got it not just slightly wrong but completely ass-ways in comparison to the exit polls that were conducted earlier on voting day.

I would say that at a lot of people lost money at 5.00PM but made it back in the following 5/6 hours until the GBP/USD hit its limit at 1.5520. This, I suppose is what makes Forex Trading so exciting and annoying at the same time. My whole train of thought was buying the GBP/USD on a dip towards 1.4850. A move to 1.5500 never entered my head.

&nbsp;

<u>GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS:</u>

<u>GREECE:</u>

I do not want to sound like a broken record but…….. It’s still going….

Allegedly, Varoufakis is claiming that an agreement with its creditors is due almost daily. Not wanting to repeat myself but “Yeah right my ar*e”.

He has to say this to keep the markets as calm as possible, now he could be telling the truth, but “Yeah right, my ar*e”. Am I too cynical?

I still think that the only way for GREECE to move forward and get this f**king monkey off its back is to declare itself bankrupt and default. That should bring in some volatility.

I bet even now in 2015 we still have not got 100% transparency on what countries and banks are in for a hiding should GREECE default. I have seen the official list and I published this in this blog a few weeks ago.

Frankly, I do not believe a damn thing anymore. GREECE was supposed to be out of cash weeks ago and could not pay any bills at all, yet here we are today still writing about it.

&nbsp;

<u>1.2 - LOOKING FORWARDS:</u>

<u>MAJOR FOREX NEWS THIS WEEK THAT INTERESTS ME:</u>

<u>(There are many more news items related to the Forex Market than the ones listed below. These are the ones that interest me. You can go to </u><a href="http://www.forexfactory.com">www.forexfactory.com</a><u> and </u><a href="http://www.tradingeconomics.com">www.tradingeconomics.com</a><u> for more comprehensive lists of all news events that are Forex related).</u>
SUNDAY: AUD – NAB Business Confidence.

MONDAY: GBP – BOE Bank Rate.

TUESDAY: AUD – Annual Government Budget Release.
TUESDAY: NZD – RBNZ financial Stability Report.
TUESDAY: NZD – Graeme Wheeler speaks.
TUESDAY: AUD – Retail Sales.

WEDNESDAY: GBP – Employment Data.
WEDNESDAY: GBP – BOE Inflation Report.
WEDNESDAY: GBP – BOE Mark Carney speaks.
WEDNESDAY: USD – Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales.

THURSDAY: N/A.

FRIDAY: N/A.

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<u>1.3 - LOOKING SIDEWAYS (FOR GOOD MEASURE):
</u>

<u>FOREX MARKET CONDITIONS:</u>

The equity markets seem to be extremes and this causes “freaky” moves from time to time in the currency markets. These moves that we sometime see that make little sense at the time are sparked off many times by pure trivia.

At the moment we have OIL at the crossroads; does it move lower or higher next. Does supply and demand really matter in that market? I am sure that, that question is being asked many, many times.

We also have the GREECE situation, which, the longer it goes on unresolved means that the crisis looms closer and closer.

Both OIL and GREECE cause rapid-fire movements in the USD and this exacerbates throughout. There is absolutely nothing that we can do except be conscious of these issues. But, frankly, what can we do?

&nbsp;
<ol start="2">
	<li><strong><u> WHAT’S ON MY MIND: -
THE FUNDAMENTAL TRADERS OVERVIEW:</u></strong></li>
</ol>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>WHY IS THE FX MARKET GIVING MIXED SIGNALS?</strong></p>
I wrote last week about how the Forex Market has thrown many curve balls at us traders this year, and, it got me thinking.

One piece of data that I provide to the PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers in their version of this blog each week looks at Forex TRENDING with the same 27 Forex Trading pairs reviewed each week.

Basically, I provide an excel spread sheet detailing which of the 27 pairs have the longer term interval charts (DAILY, WEEKLY and MONTHLY) all moving in the same direction, whether it be long or short.

I recall at one stage in my trading development that I would only trade in the direction of the longer-term trends and if all three charts did not line up in the same direction, I would not take the trade. This became criteria for trading in one of my earlier TRADING PLANS.

Of late, I have removed this feature from my TRADING PLAN, but everyday I refer to what I call my DIRECTIONALS. I believe that it gives me an edge, more confidence in placing a trade knowing that the trend is behind me.

Seven years or so ago, when I first started trading, there were huge consistencies amongst the pairs;

e.g.

The AUD/CAD, EUR/CAD, GBP/CAD and USD/CAD would all be trading in the same direction. If one pair was bearish they were all bearish. Most of the time this is still true today but of late this has altered.

Often times the USD/CAD can be long sided trend and the EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD be a short-sided trade. When you consider this has to take into consideration the fact that we are looking for all three charts to line up in the same direction. The fact that one set can be so diverse poses some questions.

Below, I show the excel sheets that are saved from THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU (PREMIUM SERVICE VERSION) blogs from previous weeks were currency pairs trending long or short for the three longer time framed charts are listed.

5<sup>th</sup>, 12<sup>th</sup>, 19<sup>th</sup>, 26<sup>th</sup> April plus 3<sup>rd</sup> and 10<sup>th</sup> May 2015. The last six weeks of charts.

Out of 27 pairs the charts tell you how many pairs are trending. If a currency pair is not there then it had mixed signals.

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/ART2-05042015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-5922" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/ART2-05042015.png" alt="ART2 05042015" width="391" height="388" /></a>

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/ART2-12042015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-5923" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/ART2-12042015.png" alt="ART2 12042015" width="394" height="455" /></a>

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/ART2-19042015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-5924" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/ART2-19042015.png" alt="ART2 19042015" width="399" height="342" /></a>

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/ART2-26042015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-5925" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/ART2-26042015.png" alt="ART2 26042015" width="399" height="356" /></a>

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/ART2-03052015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-5926" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/ART2-03052015.png" alt="ART2 03052015" width="395" height="378" /></a>

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/ART2-10052015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-5927" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/ART2-10052015.png" alt="ART2 10052015" width="387" height="340" /></a>

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Back in 2007-8, it was a consistent 50% -75% each and every week. Of late you can see that we are under 40% each week.

From my perspective, this shows as well as the obvious lack of trend and direction within a currency pair, but also the fact the raised levels of volatility and swift moves are being reflected in these longer-term charts.

What does it mean?

Does it affect our trading behavior?

Well, it means as I have already eluded to that we have an issue of lack of directional trading, and the “trend is your friend” really does not come into play when placing a trade.

Trading psychology in my opinion is huge, and it is often forgotten about as we plough through our daily routines. Sub consciously however; our minds are being messed with. I am not saying that my mind casts its way back to my latest excel spreadsheet but it must resonate somewhere as I have these charts displayed on one of my monitors.

What I am saying is that the more pairs that display mixed trends the more volatility there is for us as traders to content with. Plus the more divergences there are within a given set of matching currency related pairs the more difficult it is to trade.

Recently we have seen EUR/USD and GBP/USD moving lower with USD strength but the commodity currencies AUD/USD and NZD/USD moving higher in the opposite direction. We have both dollar strength pairs and dollar weakness pairs all within the USD majors.

In this instance how does the commodity cross-rates behave? Sometimes these can be great to trade believe it or not, look below: -

GBP/USD acting with USD strength - GBP selling and USD buying.
AUD/USD acting with USD weakness – AUD buying and USD selling.

GBP/AUD would be a great short given 100% harmony with the above, ultimate powerful moves.

&nbsp;

USD/CAD acting with USD weakness – USD selling and CAD buying,

AUD/CAD – this is now mixed from GBP/AUD. Because both commodity currencies are being bought in exchange for the USD.

This divergence can affect the moves in other cross-rates and what could be a great potential trade turns out to be one of frustration and annoying.

I have written in the past about divergences and correlations, most of the time these articles are contained within the EDUCATION TAB inside my subscriber website.

So why are we getting mixed signals.

Simply; FEAR, GREED and UNCERTAINTY in the markets. I can elaborate at great length but it all falls back to these three words.

Equity markets are at extremes. Central Banks are providing so much liquidity that company valuations based on the relationship to its stock price are over-valued or very close to. Equities are the only place in a zero interest rate environment to see a return. We have been in one-sided markets for so long.

The retail buyer is in hiding; companies are heavily buying its own stock to improve its EPS but at the same time there are no sales for the top line income on the balance sheet, and, as a result, is under-performing. Consumer Confidence, Manufacturing PMI data is very mixed, some would say weak at best, and, this feeds FEAR, GREED and UNCERTAINTY.

Thus: - we have mixed messages and mixed signals in the FX market.

&nbsp;
<ol start="3">
	<li><strong></strong><strong><u> THE PREMIUM SERVICE:</u></strong>&nbsp;</li>
</ol>
<strong><u>SUMMARY OF PERFORMANCE:</u></strong>

<u>3.1 – OVERVIEW and SUBSCRIPTION OPTIONS, FEATURES and PRICING:</u>

For new readers who may not be aware, I refer to the PREMIUM SERVICE quite a lot in this blog and for more details about what it is, and, how much it costs, you will need to go the welcome page of <a href="http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>

At the top of my welcome page there are three drop down menus: -

PREMIUM SERVICE PROMOTIONS (if available)
SIGN-UP
DISCLAIMER

Further details and how to join are all contained there. You will need at PayPal account to subscribe.

Below I provide the details of GOLD and SILVER subscription options and pricing.

If at the time of posting this blog the SILVER option is not finalized on my website and you wish to purchase this please contact me via my email address at the end of the blog and I will manually set up the subscription.

<u>GOLD MEMBER SUBSCRIPTION FEATURES &amp; PRICING OPTIONS:</u>

&nbsp;
<ul>
	<li>3 options on subscription periods.</li>
	<li>100% access to the PREMIUM SERVICE area of my website <a href="http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com">weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a></li>
	<li>A dedicated exclusive twitter feed for GOLD MEMBER subscribers only @ThePremService.</li>
	<li>All trade set-ups communicated via Twitter and RADAR and FUNDAMENTAL trades additionally via email when possible.</li>
	<li>The full and complete version of The WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU delivered weekly via an emailed PDF, and, viewable on line inside the PREMIUM SERVICE secure section of <a href="http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com">weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a></li>
	<li>My thoughts and comments on market conditions via twitter and/or email.</li>
</ul>
GOLD MEMBER SUBSCRIPTION OPTION PRICING:
(Please note that PayPal works in months NOT weeks)

10 weeks / 3 months:               $295.00

20 weeks / 6 months:               $495.00

40 weeks / 12 months:             $795.00

&nbsp;

<u>SILVER MEMBER SUBSCRIPTION FEATURES &amp; PRICING OPTIONS:</u>

&nbsp;
<ul>
	<li>Simple 4 weekly (monthly) membership pricing.</li>
	<li>A dedicated exclusive twitter feed for SILVER MEMBER subscribers only @PremServSilver.</li>
	<li>All my trade set-ups delivered to you via the SILVER MEMBER subscriber twitter feed @PremServSilver.</li>
	<li>Access to the PREMIUM SERVICE website (relevant trade information only).</li>
	<li>The “FREE NEWSLETTER” version of THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU delivered weekly direct to you email inbox and viewable online at <a href="http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com">weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a></li>
</ul>
&nbsp;

SILVER MEMBER SUBSCRIPTION OPTION PRICING:
(Please note that PayPal works in months NOT weeks)

4 weeks / 1 month:                    $100.00

&nbsp;

<u>PLEASE NOTE:</u>

From time to time special SUBSCRIPTION PROMOTIONS are offered. Check out the PROMOTIONS tab on my welcome page at <a href="http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>

&nbsp;

<u>3.2 - SUMMARY OF PERFORMANCE:</u>

(Only the excel spreadsheets will now be shown in this section. References to previous, present and future trades “LAST WEEK’s TRADING REVIEW” will now be provided solely for the benefit of PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers and has been moved into section 4).

<u>3.2.1 – PREMIUM SERVICE – COST INCOME ANALYSIS:
</u>
<p style="text-align: center;">EMANATING FROM TRADE SET-UPS - 2015 to date:</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><u>MICRO LOT TRADER</u> - 326 trades cost to trade = $32.60
<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 326 trades = <strong><u>$397.60</u></strong></p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><u>MINI LOT TRADER</u> - 326 trades cost to trade = $326.00
<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 326 trades = <strong><u>$3,976.00</u></strong></p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><u>STANDARD LOT TRADER</u> - 326 trades cost to trade = $3,260.00
<strong>PROFIT</strong> from 326 trades = <strong><u>$39,760.00</u></strong></p>
<p style="text-align: center;">If the above return from Forex Trading interests you go to
<a href="http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a> and check out the subscription options under the tab “PREMIUM SERVICE”.
The above performance above is based off single-lot trade sizes.
THE PREMIUM SERVICE has subscribers with broker accounts of sizes ranging from $2,500 to over $100,000.
A profitable trade is a profitable trade it is all about trading according to the size of your broker account (EFFECTIVE POSITION SIZING) and applying RISK MANAGEMENT principles at all times.</p>
&nbsp;

<u>3.2.2 - PREMIUM SERVICE - OVERALL TRADE SUMMARY MONTH &amp; YTD:</u>

&nbsp;

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/PREM-SERV-PROFITS1-10052015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-5928" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/PREM-SERV-PROFITS1-10052015.png" alt="PREM SERV PROFITS1 10052015" width="461" height="419" /></a>

&nbsp;

<a href="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/REM-SERV-PROFITS2-10052015.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-5929" src="https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/REM-SERV-PROFITS2-10052015.png" alt="REM SERV PROFITS2 10052015" width="467" height="425" /></a>

&nbsp;
<ol start="4">
	<li><strong><u> PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBER EXCLUSIVE CONTENT:</u></strong></li>
</ol>
(Section 4 is exclusive PREMIUM SERVICE content only available to PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers)

<u>4.1 - EDUCATION:
</u>(The full list of all items and more from this section can be found in the PREMIUM SERVICE website in the Trade Essential area under the EDUCATION tab.)

<u>4.2 – THE PREMIUM SERVICE – TRADING REVIEW:</u>

<u>4.3 - THE PREMIUM SERVICE - EXISTING LIVE TRADES:</u>

<u>4.4 - THE PREMIUM SERVICE – EXISTING LIMIT ORDERS:</u>

<u>4.5 - POTENTIAL TRADES - WHAT CHARTS AM I LOOKING AT?</u>

<u>4.6 - MAJOR TRADING PAIRS WITH LONGER-TERM TRENDS MATCHING:</u>

<u>4.7 - THE KEY SUPPORT &amp; RESISTANCE LEVELS WITH THE USD MAJORS</u><strong><u>:</u></strong>

&nbsp;

&nbsp;
<ol start="5">
	<li><strong><u> THE CONCLUSION - MY FINAL THOUGHTS:</u></strong></li>
</ol>
<u>5.1 - SUBSCRIBING TO THE “FREE VERSION” OF THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU:</u>

If you like what you have almost completed reading and want to have THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU delivered direct to your email inbox next week, here is what you do: -

Go to my website: - <a href="http://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com">www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com</a>

On the right hand side of the welcome page under my bio “about me” there is a blue box titled SUBSCRIBE TO FREE NEWSLETTER, click on profile and add your email address. It is as simple and straightforward as that.

I do NOT sell your email data to anyone…do not worry...one less thing to worry about!<strong><u> </u></strong>

<u>5.2 –TRADING TIPS &amp; THOUGHTS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD: </u>

This coming week is a major week for news.

The highlights for me being; Carney’s BOE Inflation Report, Wheelers fireside chat about all things RBNZ and USD Retail Sales. With the review of the U.S. data on TV, I just love it when the American pundits are so bullish when data is pure and simple crap. They believe if they talk louder it somehow makes the data improve. I just love it.

Added to the above economic data there is always GREECE news to keep us interested. Apparently, May 11<sup>th</sup> and May 12<sup>th</sup> are now the key dates. “Yeah right, my ar*e”.

As always, there will be trades to trade and there will be some great opportunities, please trade in line with your RISK MANAGEMENT parameters from your TRADING PLAN. If you do not have a TRADE PLAN, in my opinion, you should, as this will help you with consistency.
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>Consistency = longevity in trading and that is a critical goal.
IT IS THE KEY MEASUREMENT</strong></p>
Before you enter a trade work out the risk, price it in $$$. Place your stop accordingly. PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers have a full library of information on RISK MANAGEMENT, RISK TOLERANCES and POSITION SIZING etc. available for reference 24x7.

&nbsp;

Take care.

Scott Pickering
The Pip Accumulator
Sunday May 10th 2015

EMAIL / FOLLOW ME AT:
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All the comments and views expressed in my blog are my thoughts and ideas only. They are based on my FUNDAMENTAL views of the markets and my thoughts on the individuals concerned on how they manage positions in the public domain. In addition, I have my own thoughts and views about what I think goes on behind closed doors. You should NOT base any trade ideas on my thoughts and views alone. As I have said on many occasions in my blog, I am a FUNDAMENTAL trader first, then a TECHNICAL trader second using chart analysis to establish what I believe to be excellent trade entry positions. However, you must make up your own mind and trade at your own risk deciding if the entry levels I refer to actually meet with your views and thoughts. This makes complete sense as the risk in trading your account is 100% owned by you.

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<u>TRADING &amp; PERFORMANCES DISCLAIMER:</u>

FLASH, RADAR and FUNDAMENTAL trade set-ups, “Tweets” and “Trade ideas” that are posted in my blogs or on Twitter are trades and set-ups that interest me. They are provided for training and informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as an offer, solicitation or recommendation of any specific security or investment strategy. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading Forex carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade any such leveraged products you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin, and seek advice from an independent financial adviser if you have any doubts.